Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/10/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HRS...THEN WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. EXPECT CONDITIONS AS
LOW AS LIFR UNDER THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP...AS WELL AS ERRATIC
WINDS UNDER AND IN VICINITY OF TSRA.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WELL ADVERTISED AND WELL ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED AND NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUES TO
WAFFLE A LITTLE BIT ON THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A GOOD
OLD FASHIONED SPRING SOAKING AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED.
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS INDEED CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW AND
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
GULF OF MEXICO IS WIDE OPEN AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS ALSO STREAMING IN FROM
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AS STRONG SOUTHWEST ALOFT IS NOW ESTABLISHED
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OR MORE CONTINUING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND IS HANDLED
WELL BY BOTH THE HRRR AND 4.0KM WRF SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWING THEIR LEAD
.SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED THIS MORNING WITH FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN AROUND MID DAY OVER THE
WEST AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE METRO AREA.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY REACH FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...SOME QUITE STRONG...WILL KICK OUT OF THE LOW BRINGING
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSES BUT RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW SOME RUN OFF TO
OCCUR BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE PLENTY OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER FAR SW TEXAS...WHILE A WEAK STALLED FRONT WILL SET UP OVER AR.
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL BRING HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP A SCENARIO OF PERIODS OF
RAIN TO AFFECT AR...OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE SEEN. THE
FORECAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO WESTERN AR
IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY...4 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
EASTERN AR.
ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER
EASTERN TX...WHILE THE STALL BOUNDARY WAS STILL OVER AR. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AR...BUT WE DO SEE A BIT LESS LIFT
INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES DO LOWER A BIT...AS WELL AS RAIN
AMOUNTS. INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT...WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS THE
LOW BACK. SOME CHANCES OF RAIN WILL STILL BE SEEN SATURDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
BACK TOGETHER AND MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF AR AND ENDING ANY
RAIN. ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM THAN THE
EURO...AND SOME LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...TO 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
60S.
ONE ISSUE THAT MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER
AR WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
GOLF COASTS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST LIMITS SOME OF THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY...AND WE END UP WITH A LITTLE LESS RAIN THAN FORECASTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 60 69 61 / 70 90 90 90
CAMDEN AR 73 64 74 63 / 90 90 90 90
HARRISON AR 67 58 67 57 / 90 90 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 62 70 61 / 90 90 90 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 62 71 62 / 80 90 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 75 63 76 64 / 70 70 70 90
MOUNT IDA AR 69 62 68 60 / 90 90 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 59 69 59 / 80 90 90 90
NEWPORT AR 70 60 70 61 / 50 80 80 90
PINE BLUFF AR 74 62 74 63 / 70 80 80 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 61 69 61 / 90 90 90 90
SEARCY AR 71 61 70 61 / 70 90 90 90
STUTTGART AR 72 62 72 62 / 60 80 80 90
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
607 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
WITH TIME AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO IFR TO LIFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WELL ADVERTISED AND WELL ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED AND NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUES TO
WAFFLE A LITTLE BIT ON THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A GOOD
OLD FASHIONED SPRING SOAKING AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED.
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS INDEED CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW AND
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
GULF OF MEXICO IS WIDE OPEN AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS ALSO STREAMING IN FROM
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AS STRONG SOUTHWEST ALOFT IS NOW ESTABLISHED
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OR MORE CONTINUING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND IS HANDLED
WELL BY BOTH THE HRRR AND 4.0KM WRF SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWING THEIR LEAD
..SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED THIS MORNING WITH FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN AROUND MID DAY OVER THE
WEST AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE METRO AREA.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY REACH FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...SOME QUITE STRONG...WILL KICK OUT OF THE LOW BRINGING
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSES BUT RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW SOME RUN OFF TO
OCCUR BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE PLENTY OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER FAR SW TEXAS...WHILE A WEAK STALLED FRONT WILL SET UP OVER AR.
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL BRING HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP A SCENARIO OF PERIODS OF
RAIN TO AFFECT AR...OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE SEEN. THE
FORECAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO WESTERN AR
IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY...4 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
EASTERN AR.
ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER
EASTERN TX...WHILE THE STALL BOUNDARY WAS STILL OVER AR. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AR...BUT WE DO SEE A BIT LESS LIFT
INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES DO LOWER A BIT...AS WELL AS RAIN
AMOUNTS. INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT...WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS THE
LOW BACK. SOME CHANCES OF RAIN WILL STILL BE SEEN SATURDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
BACK TOGETHER AND MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF AR AND ENDING ANY
RAIN. ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM THAN THE
EURO...AND SOME LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...TO 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
60S.
ONE ISSUE THAT MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER
AR WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
GOLF COASTS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST LIMITS SOME OF THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY...AND WE END UP WITH A LITTLE LESS RAIN THAN FORECASTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 60 69 61 / 70 90 90 90
CAMDEN AR 73 64 74 63 / 90 90 90 90
HARRISON AR 67 58 67 57 / 90 90 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 62 70 61 / 90 90 90 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 62 71 62 / 80 90 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 75 63 76 64 / 70 70 70 90
MOUNT IDA AR 69 62 68 60 / 90 90 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 59 69 59 / 80 90 90 90
NEWPORT AR 70 60 70 61 / 50 80 80 90
PINE BLUFF AR 74 62 74 63 / 70 80 80 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 61 69 61 / 90 90 90 90
SEARCY AR 71 61 70 61 / 70 90 90 90
STUTTGART AR 72 62 72 62 / 60 80 80 90
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
323 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WELL ADVERTISED AND WELL ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED AND NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUES TO
WAFFLE A LITTLE BIT ON THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A GOOD
OLD FASHIONED SPRING SOAKING AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED.
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS INDEED CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW AND
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
GULF OF MEXICO IS WIDE OPEN AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS ALSO STREAMING IN FROM
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AS STRONG SOUTHWEST ALOFT IS NOW ESTABLISHED
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OR MORE CONTINUING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND IS HANDLED
WELL BY BOTH THE HRRR AND 4.0KM WRF SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWING THEIR LEAD
...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED THIS MORNING WITH FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN AROUND MID DAY OVER THE
WEST AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE METRO AREA.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY REACH FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...SOME QUITE STRONG...WILL KICK OUT OF THE LOW BRINGING
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSES BUT RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW SOME RUN OFF TO
OCCUR BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE PLENTY OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER FAR SW TEXAS...WHILE A WEAK STALLED FRONT WILL SET UP OVER AR.
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL BRING HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP A SCENARIO OF PERIODS OF
RAIN TO AFFECT AR...OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE SEEN. THE
FORECAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO WESTERN AR
IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY...4 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
EASTERN AR.
ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER
EASTERN TX...WHILE THE STALL BOUNDARY WAS STILL OVER AR. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AR...BUT WE DO SEE A BIT LESS LIFT
INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES DO LOWER A BIT...AS WELL AS RAIN
AMOUNTS. INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT...WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS THE
LOW BACK. SOME CHANCES OF RAIN WILL STILL BE SEEN SATURDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
BACK TOGETHER AND MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF AR AND ENDING ANY
RAIN. ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM THAN THE
EURO...AND SOME LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...TO 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
60S.
ONE ISSUE THAT MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER
AR WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
GOLF COASTS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST LIMITS SOME OF THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY...AND WE END UP WITH A LITTLE LESS RAIN THAN FORECASTED.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 60 69 61 / 70 90 90 90
CAMDEN AR 73 64 74 63 / 90 90 90 90
HARRISON AR 67 58 67 57 / 90 90 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 62 70 61 / 90 90 90 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 62 71 62 / 80 90 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 75 63 76 64 / 70 70 70 90
MOUNT IDA AR 69 62 68 60 / 90 90 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 59 69 59 / 80 90 90 90
NEWPORT AR 70 60 70 61 / 50 80 80 90
PINE BLUFF AR 74 62 74 63 / 70 80 80 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 61 69 61 / 90 90 90 90
SEARCY AR 71 61 70 61 / 70 90 90 90
STUTTGART AR 72 62 72 62 / 60 80 80 90
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...59
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
213 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX TODAY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
COMBINED WITH THE STEADY WIND...IT FEELS QUITE CHILLY EVEN IN THE
LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...IN SOME REGARDS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES NOT LOOK UNLIKE AN AVERAGE JULY DAY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.
LIFTED INDICES REMAIN NEAR ZERO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT (ROUGHLY 10TH PERCENTILE) AND THIS IS SUPPORTING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS GILA AND NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...HI-RES WRFS INCLUDING THE HRRR INSIST THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE ALTOGETHER AFTER SUNSET. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS ALSO WORKING AGAINST PRECIPITATION MAINTENANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WITH YESTERDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM HAVING EXITED THE REGION EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW OCCASIONAL SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR ALL AREAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOR THE PHOENIX
METRO SITES LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WESTERLY COMPONENT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND STAY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITHOUT
IMPACTING THE AREA. MEANWHILE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL
AND KBLH WILL BE QUITE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 24 KTS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL
STAY LOCALLY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
823 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER...ONLY SLIGHT WARMING
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SONORA. CLOUD TOPS ACROSS AZ CONTINUE TO WARM
AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN AZ ARE BEING
DETECTED ON REGIONAL RADARS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE HRRR SUGGESTS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING AND THE
MENTION OF THUNDER WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS WELL.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP AREAS OF CIGS AT THE TAF SITES WITH BASES MOSTLY 10-
12K FEET. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND THUS WILL NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE AREA TAFS. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT CLEARING
WITH JUST FEW-SCT HIGHER BASED CU AND MID DECKS. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...GOING BACK TO THE WEST BY 18-19Z WITH A FEW
AFTN GUSTS TO 20K POSSIBLE. KPHX MAY SEE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING AND HAVE A HARDER TIME SWITCHING TO THE EAST BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON WEST WINDS SET IN .
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. KBLH LIKELY TO HAVE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS THAN KIPL...AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 25KT AT TIMES
AFTER 18Z TODAY. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK UP
ANY CONSEQUENTIAL BLOWING DUST/SAND. SOME LINGERING MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE SKIES GENLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL
STAY LOCALLY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
ALSO BE MUCH WARMER...ONLY SLIGHT WARMING ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/NW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. WITHIN THAT THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO VORT
MAXES/LOBES. AS OF THIS WRITING...ONE OF THEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER AND WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE OTHER VORT MAX
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND WAS PRODUCING SOME
MODEST CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR AND OFF OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THOSE LOBES DUMBELLING AROUND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR YUMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE
OVERALL SYSTEM. WITH THE BORDERLAND VORT MAX/LOBE MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THIS MORNING...LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWERS AFFECTING
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING HRRR AND THE NCEP WRF/S ARE LESS GENEROUS AND PRETTY MUCH
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR HRRR PRIOR TO 12Z THIS
MORNING. AN EXCEPTION IS THE NCAR ENSEMBLE BUT IT HAS NOT HANDLED THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY WELL. PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE MODELS
END QPF THIS EVENING AS THINGS SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. IN LIGHT OF
ONGOING TRENDS...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
DESERTS THIS MORNING WITH POPS PRETTY MUCH LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY LIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR PHOENIX AREA. SREF
DEPICTS SOME VERY MODEST CAPE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER MODELS. ALREADY SOME LIGHTNING OBSERVED OVER
NORTHERN SONORA. THUS INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA TODAY AS WELL AS SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMING
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE MORE MUTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX WHERE THINGS WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVEL BE NEAR 5500 FEET THIS MORNING RISING QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP AREAS OF CIGS AT THE TAF SITES WITH BASES MOSTLY 10-
12K FEET. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND THUS WILL NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE AREA TAFS. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT CLEARING
WITH JUST FEW-SCT HIGHER BASED CU AND MID DECKS. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...GOING BACK TO THE WEST BY 18-19Z WITH A FEW
AFTN GUSTS TO 20K POSSIBLE. KPHX MAY SEE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING AND HAVE A HARDER TIME SWITCHING TO THE EAST BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON WEST WINDS SET IN .
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. KBLH LIKELY TO HAVE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS THAN KIPL...AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 25KT AT TIMES
AFTER 18Z TODAY. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK UP
ANY CONSEQUENTIAL BLOWING DUST/SAND. SOME LINGERING MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE SKIES GENLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL
STAY LOCALLY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
ALSO BE MUCH WARMER...ONLY SLIGHT WARMING ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/NW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. WITHIN THAT THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO VORT
MAXES/LOBES. AS OF THIS WRITING...ONE OF THEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER AND WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE OTHER VORT MAX
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND WAS PRODUCING SOME
MODEST CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR AND OFF OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THOSE LOBES DUMBELLING AROUND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR YUMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE
OVERALL SYSTEM. WITH THE BORDERLAND VORT MAX/LOBE MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THIS MORNING...LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWERS AFFECTING
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING HRRR AND THE NCEP WRF/S ARE LESS GENEROUS AND PRETTY MUCH
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR HRRR PRIOR TO 12Z THIS
MORNING. AN EXCEPTION IS THE NCAR ENSEMBLE BUT IT HAS NOT HANDLED THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY WELL. PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE MODELS
END QPF THIS EVENING AS THINGS SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. IN LIGHT OF
ONGOING TRENDS...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
DESERTS THIS MORNING WITH POPS PRETTY MUCH LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY LIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR PHOENIX AREA. SREF
DEPICTS SOME VERY MODEST CAPE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER MODELS. ALREADY SOME LIGHTNING OBSERVED OVER
NORTHERN SONORA. THUS INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA TODAY AS WELL AS SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMING
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE MORE MUTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX WHERE THINGS WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVEL BE NEAR 5500 FEET THIS MORNING RISING QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THERE WILL BE LIMITED AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS. A STRAY SHOWER (BUT MOSTLY VIRGA) COULD PASS THROUGH THE
PHOENIX METRO LATE TONIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K
FT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER SIMILAR TO MONDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF VARIABLE OR
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE AND ISOLD SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AREA. SFC WINDS
WILL FAVOR A W/NW DIRECTION WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF GUSTINESS NEAR
25KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AOA 10K FT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
220 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CAPES ARE RUNNING 100-300 J/KG AND LAPSE
RATES ARE 7- 9 C/KM UP TO 350MB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN A SHORT TIME. IF THIS FALLS OVER I-70 OR ANOTHER
ROADWAY...SLUSHY/SNOWPACKED ROADS WOULD BE EXPECTED. AS THE
AIRMASS STABILIZES...SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAP
AND HRRR INDICATE THE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE DENVER
METRO AREA THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL
HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST IN CASE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURS IN THE DENVER AREA...IT WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A FEW LOCATION MAY PICK UP TO 2
INCHES...OTHERWISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL HAVE
10 POPS FOR THIS. MAINLY VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE SECOND OF TWO SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACCORDING TO MODELS. LAST OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MTNS THE PRODUCT OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK
OROGRAPHICS INDUCED BY NWLY POST-TROUGH FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF GUIDANCE INDICATING BARELY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE
06Z/THURSDAY. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS AND NOTHING ANYWHERE AFTER 06Z
WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO RACE ACROSS NEB/KAN. GOING WITH 30-50
PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY EVENING LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO
BY MORNING. ON THE PLAINS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
WITH 10-15 PCT POPS FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN EARLY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN WITH CLEARING
LATE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE FCST REGION. MODELS
SHOW A 582 DECAMETER HIGH BULGING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY AND UP ACRS SRN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A CLEAR NIGHT THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGS F ABV AVG THURSDAY AND 14-18 DEG F ABV AVG ON FRIDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ONSHORE IN
CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES QUICKLY ACRS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER COLORADO ON SATURDAY. MODELS FORM A WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AROUND 12Z/SATURDAY. LOW TRACKS E-SEWRD TAKING A
NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WHICH SWEEPS ACRS THE STATE
DURING THE DAY. MODELS GENERATE SOME LOW QPF/SNOW ACCUM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY BUT NOTHING ON THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW RACES SEWRD ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DROP OFF IN PRECIP UP OUR WAY. BY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE GENERATING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABV AVG TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY ACCORDING THE MODELS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
ALSO QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO
STRAY AS THE ECMWF SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL ROCKY MTN REGION BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIP. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THIS SAME TROUGH CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
REGION. MODEL SHOW A STRONG SLY GRADIENT FLOW SETTING UP ON THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABV AVG. MODELS ALSO SHOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MTNS BY LATE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
NEARING TROUGH. CERTAINLY TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHICH ONE OF THIS
SCENARIOS WILL PAN OUT. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NORMAL
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE DIRECTION BY 06Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS 3000 TO 6000 FEET. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS 12Z. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
CUMULUS CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGHER....6000 TO
8000 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TO
TODAY...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LI/NYC...TO ABOUT BLM ON THE NJ
COAST. THE FRONT THEN SNAKES BACK TO THE NW ACROSS NE NJ IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...HAVE DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE AND NE PA WHICH
IS TRACKING TO THE SE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SKIES AT LEAST GOING
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK AND WILL BE OFFSET BY DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGING.
TEMPS NW OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR JUST SURPASS THE
70 DEGREE MARK. MOST OF NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LONG ISLAND AND MOST
OF SRN CT SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE...WITH MOSTLY 50S...THOUGH HRRR INDICATES THE
NORTH SHORE OF WRN LONG ISLAND AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR
SRN CT MAY ALSO SEE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INVOF NYC... IN THE
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SRN CT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE...WITH 60S FOR LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AND
LOWER/MID 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH. USING WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AND ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEG...
HIGHLY URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEEING
HIGHS APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AND THEN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NEAR RECORD TEMPS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. TEMPS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 60S.
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
MOST SHOWERS DRY UP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS SLOWLY
DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SSE-SE FLOW UNDER 10 KT BCMG LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORNING PATCHY FOG...THEN VFR. SW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OCEAN WATERS E OF MORICHES INLET.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS COULD COME FRI INTO SAT ON THE OCEAN
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD ON WED...MAINLY NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THU SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE AVG. AWAY FROM THE COAST. WED AND THU WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH TEMPS 15-25 DEG ABOVE AVG INLAND.
HIGH TEMP RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR EXCEEDED AS FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 64
ISLIP64 2000 66
LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71
KENNEDY 67 1973 64
CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 75
NEWARK 74 2000 76
THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 62
ISLIP62 2006 63
LAGUARDIA 74 2006 70
KENNEDY 71 2006 65
CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 71
NEWARK 76 2006 72
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
931 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TO
TODAY...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LI/NYC...TO ABOUT BLM ON THE NJ
COAST. THE FRONT THEN SNAKES BACK TO THE NW ACROSS NE NJ IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...HAVE DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE AND NE PA WHICH
IS TRACKING TO THE SE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SKIES AT LEAST GOING
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK AND WILL BE OFFSET BY DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGING.
TEMPS NW OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR JUST SURPASS THE
70 DEGREE MARK. MOST OF NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LONG ISLAND AND MOST
OF SRN CT SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE...WITH MOSTLY 50S...THOUGH HRRR INDICATES THE
NORTH SHORE OF WRN LONG ISLAND AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR
SRN CT MAY ALSO SEE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INVOF NYC... IN THE
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SRN CT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE...WITH 60S FOR LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AND
LOWER/MID 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH. USING WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AND ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEG...
HIGHLY URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEEING
HIGHS APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AND THEN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NEAR RECORD TEMPS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. TEMPS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 60S.
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
MOST SHOWERS DRY UP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR OR OVER THE AREA TODAY.
VFR THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
LATE TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SSE-SE FLOW UNDER 10 KT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW RETURNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORNING PATCHY FOG...THEN VFR. SW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OCEAN WATERS E OF MORICHES INLET.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS COULD COME FRI INTO SAT ON THE OCEAN
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD ON WED...MAINLY NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THU SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE AVG. AWAY FROM THE COAST. WED AND THU WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH TEMPS 15-25 DEG ABOVE AVG INLAND.
HIGH TEMP RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR EXCEEDED AS FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 64
ISLIP64 2000 66
LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71
KENNEDY 67 1973 64
CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 75
NEWARK 74 2000 76
THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 62
ISLIP62 2006 63
LAGUARDIA 74 2006 70
KENNEDY 71 2006 65
CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 71
NEWARK 76 2006 72
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS
CLIMATE...//
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
619 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DRAG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACROSS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. WILL ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS
TO REFLECT LATEST SFC OBS AND LATEST TRENDS.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN
CT...LONG ISLAND AND NYC. AS A WEAK LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WINDS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL...BUT DO EXPECT THE
FRONT TO GET HUNG UP IN THE HILLS NW OF THE CITY. THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL...AND SO HIGH TEMPS ARE
CLOSE TO 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND
A COUPLE OF DEG WARMER FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. PER THIS GUIDANCE AND
LATEST HRRR...TEMPS NW OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR JUST
SURPASS THE 70 DEGREE MARK. EVEN WHERE THE FRONT DOES GET
THROUGH...MOST OF NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE...WITH MOSTLY 50S...THOUGH HRRR INDICATES THE
NORTH SHORE OF WRN LONG ISLAND AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR
SRN CT MAY ALSO SEE LOWER 60S.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE H8 WARM FRONT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS
THROUGH BEFORE UPPER RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. NYC
METRO AND NE NJ COULD SEE SOME CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INVOF NYC... IN THE
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SRN CT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE...WITH 60S FOR LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AND
LOWER/MID 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH. USING WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AND ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEG...
HIGHLY URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEEING
HIGHS APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AND THEN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NEAR RECORD TEMPS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. TEMPS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 60S.
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
MOST SHOWERS DRY UP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR OR OVER THE AREA TODAY.
VFR THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
LATE TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SSE-SE FLOW
UNDER 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
RETURNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORNING PATCHY FOG...THEN VFR. SW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OCEAN WATERS E OF MORICHES INLET.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS COULD COME FRI INTO SAT ON THE OCEAN
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD ON WED...MAINLY NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THU SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE AVG. AWAY FROM THE COAST. WED AND THU WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH TEMPS 15-25 DEG ABOVE AVG INLAND.
HIGH TEMP RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR EXCEEDED AS FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 64
ISLIP64 2000 66
LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71
KENNEDY 67 1973 64
CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 75
NEWARK 74 2000 76
THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 62
ISLIP62 2006 63
LAGUARDIA 74 2006 70
KENNEDY 71 2006 65
CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 71
NEWARK 76 2006 72
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
445 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DRAG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACROSS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN
CT...LONG ISLAND AND NYC. AS A WEAK LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WINDS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL...BUT DO EXPECT THE
FRONT TO GET HUNG UP IN THE HILLS NW OF THE CITY. THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL...AND SO HIGH TEMPS ARE
CLOSE TO 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND
A COUPLE OF DEG WARMER FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. PER THIS GUIDANCE AND
LATEST HRRR...TEMPS NW OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR
JUST SURPASS THE 70 DEGREE MARK. EVEN WHERE THE FRONT DOES GET
THROUGH...MOST OF NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE...WITH MOSTLY 50S...THOUGH HRRR INDICATES THE
NORTH SHORE OF WRN LONG ISLAND AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR
SRN CT MAY ALSO SEE LOWER 60S.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE H8 WARM FRONT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS
THROUGH BEFORE UPPER RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
NYC METRO AND NE NJ COULD SEE SOME CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MILD
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INVOF NYC...
IN THE 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR SRN CT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE...WITH 60S FOR LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AND
LOWER/MID 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH. USING WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AND ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEG...
HIGHLY URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEEING
HIGHS APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AND THEN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NEAR RECORD TEMPS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. TEMPS ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 60S.
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND MOST SHOWERS
DRY UP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
AS COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR OR OVER THE AREA TODAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SSE-SE FLOW
UNDER 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
RETURNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LATE TONIGHT...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN FOG AND/OR POSSIBLY STRATUS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL SEEING 5-FT SEAS AT 44017 WITH A S SWELL...SO EXTENDED SCA E
OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 7 AM.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS COULD COME FRI INTO SAT ON THE OCEAN
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD ON WED...MAINLY NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THU SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE AVG. AWAY FROM THE COAST. WED AND THU WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH TEMPS 15-25 DEG ABOVE AVG INLAND.
HIGH TEMP RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR EXCEEDED AS FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 64
ISLIP64 2000 66
LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71
KENNEDY 67 1973 64
CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 75
NEWARK 74 2000 76
THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 62
ISLIP62 2006 63
LAGUARDIA 74 2006 70
KENNEDY 71 2006 65
CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 71
NEWARK 76 2006 72
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1207 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AROUND
5 KFT CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS AND MAY CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CONTINUING STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
REQUIRED.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS, ACROSS SOUTH
FL, AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 4-5 KFT
THIS MORNING. ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY LOW REGARDING THIS
SOLUTION. BKN-OVC CIGS ARND 5 KFT MAY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEK...
REST OF THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A VERY THIN LAYER AROUND 850MB/5000FT AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 0.60" AND RATHER DRY
LAYERS ABOVE AND BELOW WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE. BOTTOMLINE, NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY IN THESE
CLOUDS BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T SEE INVERSION LIFTING PER CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY RAIN TODAY OUTSIDE MAY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
BOTTOMLINE THESE AIN`T RAIN CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY OUTSIDE AREAS OF SUN TODAY.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER FL, EAST COAST, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE 590-592DM JUST TO OUR EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH ARE
AROUND 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS
THE AREA.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOULD LEAD TO RECORD WARMTH. BUT THE WINDS AND SCU FIELDS
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT
REMAIN AROUND 70 OR INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MAY BE MID 70S NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LATER IN THE WEEK.
BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SEVERAL VISITORS IN THE AREA WITH SPRING
BREAK UPON US, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT REGARDING
THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. THE HIGH
RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTS
TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BOTH MODELS TRY TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND IS SLOWER, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE TREND OF MODELS TO OFTEN
TOO QUICKLY BRING DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS, FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION REFLECTING INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH.
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE GULF AND BAYS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BEING BORDERLINE WILL RE ASSESS LATER
TODAY. IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING,
THEN AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
PUT IN ITS PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY ALONG ATLANTIC
WATERS RESULTING IN HIGHER SEAS TOO AND IF SO IS THE CASE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY BE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 80 73 83 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 79 75 82 / 10 0 10 0
MIAMI 70 80 73 82 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 62 83 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
942 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CONTINUING STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
REQUIRED.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS, ACROSS SOUTH
FL, AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 4-5 KFT
THIS MORNING. ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY LOW REGARDING THIS
SOLUTION. BKN-OVC CIGS ARND 5 KFT MAY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEK...
REST OF THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A VERY THIN LAYER AROUND 850MB/5000FT AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 0.60" AND RATHER DRY
LAYERS ABOVE AND BELOW WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE. BOTTOMLINE, NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY IN THESE
CLOUDS BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T SEE INVERSION LIFTING PER CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY RAIN TODAY OUTSIDE MAY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
BOTTOMLINE THESE AIN`T RAIN CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY OUTSIDE AREAS OF SUN TODAY.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER FL, EAST COAST, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE 590-592DM JUST TO OUR EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH ARE
AROUND 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS
THE AREA.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOULD LEAD TO RECORD WARMTH. BUT THE WINDS AND SCU FIELDS
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT
REMAIN AROUND 70 OR INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MAY BE MID 70S NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LATER IN THE WEEK.
BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SEVERAL VISITORS IN THE AREA WITH SPRING
BREAK UPON US, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT REGARDING
THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. THE HIGH
RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTS
TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BOTH MODELS TRY TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND IS SLOWER, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE TREND OF MODELS TO OFTEN
TOO QUICKLY BRING DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS, FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION REFLECTING INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH.
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE GULF AND BAYS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BEING BORDERLINE WILL RE ASSESS LATER
TODAY. IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING,
THEN AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
PUT IN ITS PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY ALONG ATLANTIC
WATERS RESULTING IN HIGHER SEAS TOO AND IF SO IS THE CASE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY BE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 70 80 73 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 71 79 75 / 10 10 0 10
MIAMI 78 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 81 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
645 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF BKN STRATOCU CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE...IMPACTING TAFS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-4...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT.
THESE PERIODS OF BKN CIGS ABOVE VFR LIMITS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR KSRQ/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. E/SE WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 14-18KTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS SUBSIDE
TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. EYES
IMMEDIATELY GO TO THE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW DIGGING
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN MS VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
TROUGH IS STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH ZONAL PROGRESS. THE DEEPNESS OF
THIS TROUGH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER AS THE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROMOTE AMPLIFYING/SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL ONLY HELP SLOW THE ZONAL
PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH AND ACT AS LONG TERM PROTECTION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA/GA/NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE WORK WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL E/SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE NOW REALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR
HEADS...WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
RATHER BENIGN WITH STACKED RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE...AND ONLY
BECOMING STRONGER WITH TIME. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING BY THE END
OF TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESSENTIALLY PREVENTING
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. THEREFORE POPS ARE ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH POPS ARE ZERO...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS MAKING
THERE WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITHIN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...MOST SUN TODAY IS
LIKELY TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE SUNNY
BREAKS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
MORE PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE
LAYER SUPPORTING THESE CLOUDS IS RATHER SHALLOW. GOOD CHANCE WE
ARE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS LAYER BY MID AFTERNOON...AND
ESSENTIALLY ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM THE BOTTOM UP.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE BREAKS OF SUN DOWN SOUTH AS WE HEAD
LATER INTO THE DAY. DESPITE THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS...OVERALL
INSOLATION WILL BE HIGH...AND TEMPS WILL RESPOND. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING IT APPEARS THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW A DEFINED SEA- BREEZE TO DEVELOP. MAY SEE A
FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS SLACKEN IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OR BRIEFLY
FLIP ONSHORE...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY INLAND PENETRATION.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
SEA-BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-4...AND THEN THE GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S FAR NORTH AND
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST SPOTS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER...TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. LOCATIONS SUCH AS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE
ISLANDS/CAPES OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF COOLER BAY AND HARBOR WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
HOLD SWAY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI. A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS TX WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ROBUST
AT TIMES ON THE GULF.
SAT-SUN-MON...UP TO THIS POINT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
BUT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND. THEY ARE SIMILAR
WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING FLATTENING AND SLIDING EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER OVER THE CONUS...THE ECMWF
SLOWLY MOVES THE CUTOFF LOW EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND DAMPENS IT OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS TRACKS THE CUTOFF NORTHEAST AND FASTER
BUT HAS A SECOND LOW THAT FORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES
EAST. IN EITHER CASE THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH... WITH
THE ECMWF RUNNING ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS SLOW. BOTH MODELS END WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND GENERALLY IN PLACE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
SHOWERS (POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT) BUT WITH THE TIMING SLOWED...FAVORING
THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS POSITION OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING A STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STRONG HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
PATTERN WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS
AROUND THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WINDS BECOME GUSTY LATE EACH MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT DAYTIME MIXING AND STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 76 61 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 79 62 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
555 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS, ACROSS SOUTH
FL, AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 4-5 KFT
THIS MORNING. ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY LOW REGARDING THIS
SOLUTION. BKN-OVC CIGS ARND 5 KFT MAY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEK...
REST OF THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A VERY THIN LAYER AROUND 850MB/5000FT AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 0.60" AND RATHER DRY
LAYERS ABOVE AND BELOW WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE. BOTTOMLINE, NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY IN THESE
CLOUDS BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T SEE INVERSION LIFTING PER CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY RAIN TODAY OUTSIDE MAY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
BOTTOMLINE THESE AIN`T RAIN CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY OUTSIDE AREAS OF SUN TODAY.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER FL, EAST COAST, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE 590-592DM JUST TO OUR EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH ARE
AROUND 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS
THE AREA.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOULD LEAD TO RECORD WARMTH. BUT THE WINDS AND SCU FIELDS
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT
REMAIN AROUND 70 OR INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MAY BE MID 70S NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LATER IN THE WEEK.
BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SEVERAL VISITORS IN THE AREA WITH SPRING
BREAK UPON US, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT REGARDING
THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. THE HIGH
RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTS
TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BOTH MODELS TRY TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND IS SLOWER, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE TREND OF MODELS TO OFTEN
TOO QUICKLY BRING DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS, FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION REFLECTING INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH.
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE GULF AND BAYS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BEING BORDERLINE WILL RE ASSESS LATER
TODAY. IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING,
THEN AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
PUT IN ITS PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY ALONG ATLANTIC
WATERS RESULTING IN HIGHER SEAS TOO AND IF SO IS THE CASE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY BE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 71 79 75 / 10 10 0 10
MIAMI 78 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 81 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
435 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEK...
REST OF THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A VERY THIN LAYER AROUND 850MB/5000FT AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 0.60" AND RATHER DRY
LAYERS ABOVE AND BELOW WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE. BOTTOMLINE, NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY IN THESE
CLOUDS BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T SEE INVERSION LIFTING PER CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY RAIN TODAY OUTSIDE MAY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
BOTTOMLINE THESE AIN`T RAIN CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY OUTSIDE AREAS OF SUN TODAY.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER FL, EAST COAST, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE 590-592DM JUST TO OUR EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH ARE
AROUND 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS
THE AREA.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOULD LEAD TO RECORD WARMTH. BUT THE WINDS AND SCU FIELDS
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT
REMAIN AROUND 70 OR INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MAY BE MID 70S NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LATER IN THE WEEK.
BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SEVERAL VISITORS IN THE AREA WITH SPRING
BREAK UPON US, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT REGARDING
THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. THE HIGH
RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTS
TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BOTH MODELS TRY TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND IS SLOWER, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE TREND OF MODELS TO OFTEN
TOO QUICKLY BRING DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS, FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION REFLECTING INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE GULF AND BAYS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BEING BORDERLINE WILL RE ASSESS LATER
TODAY. IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING,
THEN AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
PUT IN ITS PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY ALONG ATLANTIC
WATERS RESULTING IN HIGHER SEAS TOO AND IF SO IS THE CASE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY BE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 71 79 75 / 10 10 0 10
MIAMI 78 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 81 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
344 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. EYES
IMMEDIATELY GO TO THE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW DIGGING
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN MS VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
TROUGH IS STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH ZONAL PROGRESS. THE DEEPNESS OF
THIS TROUGH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER AS THE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROMOTE AMPLIFYING/SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL ONLY HELP SLOW THE ZONAL
PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH AND ACT AS LONG TERM PROTECTION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA/GA/NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE WORK WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL E/SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE NOW REALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR
HEADS...WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
RATHER BENIGN WITH STACKED RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE...AND ONLY
BECOMING STRONGER WITH TIME. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING BY THE END
OF TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESSENTIALLY PREVENTING
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. THEREFORE POPS ARE ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH POPS ARE ZERO...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS MAKING
THERE WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITHIN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...MOST SUN TODAY IS
LIKELY TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE SUNNY
BREAKS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
MORE PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE
LAYER SUPPORTING THESE CLOUDS IS RATHER SHALLOW. GOOD CHANCE WE
ARE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS LAYER BY MID AFTERNOON...AND
ESSENTIALLY ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM THE BOTTOM UP.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE BREAKS OF SUN DOWN SOUTH AS WE HEAD
LATER INTO THE DAY. DESPITE THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS...OVERALL
INSOLATION WILL BE HIGH...AND TEMPS WILL RESPOND. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING IT APPEARS THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW A DEFINED SEA- BREEZE TO DEVELOP. MAY SEE A
FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS SLACKEN IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OR BRIEFLY
FLIP ONSHORE...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY INLAND PENETRATION.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
SEA-BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-4...AND THEN THE GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S FAR NORTH AND
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST SPOTS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER...TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. LOCATIONS SUCH AS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE
ISLANDS/CAPES OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF COOLER BAY AND HARBOR WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
HOLD SWAY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI. A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS TX WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ROBUST
AT TIMES ON THE GULF.
SAT-SUN-MON...UP TO THIS POINT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
BUT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND. THEY ARE SIMILAR
WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING FLATTENING AND SLIDING EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER OVER THE CONUS...THE ECMWF
SLOWLY MOVES THE CUTOFF LOW EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND DAMPENS IT OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS TRACKS THE CUTOFF NORTHEAST AND FASTER
BUT HAS A SECOND LOW THAT FORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES
EAST. IN EITHER CASE THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH... WITH
THE ECMWF RUNNING ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS SLOW. BOTH MODELS END WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND GENERALLY IN PLACE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
SHOWERS (POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT) BUT WITH THE TIMING SLOWED...FAVORING
THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. BKN STRATOCU
MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAFS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT.
THESE SCT-BKN CIGS ABOVE VFR LIMITS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. E/SE WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY MID/LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 14-18KTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS SUBSIDE TOWARD
SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS POSITION OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING A STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STRONG HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
PATTERN WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS
AROUND THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WINDS BECOME GUSTY LATE EACH MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT DAYTIME MIXING AND STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 76 61 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 79 62 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
633 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY
HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED AND LIMIT THE FOG
THREAT BUT WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS
SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
SKY GRIDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ALSO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVENT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
BROUGHT THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
STILL REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...ALLOWING WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE MAJORITY OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY TO
REFLECT MODEL TRENDS. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR WITH PWATS OF AROUND AN INCH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
A SOUTH TO WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AND
PERSIST DURING THE 08Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MOS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RESTRICTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 08Z BUT ARE CONFLICTED ON
WHETHER IT WILL BE FOG AND/OR STRATUS. BUFKIT TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED.
LEANED TOWARDS THE MET GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING IN MVFR STRATUS
CLOUDS AFTER 08Z WHILE NOT GOING AS STRONG ON THE FOG VSBYS LIKE
THE LAMP WOULD SUGGEST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND VSBYS
LOWER THAN 1 MILE CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN
POSSIBILITY. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING TAKING PLACE BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF TIME UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER THE
REGION DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. WINDS
WILL AGAIN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
216 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
IN THE WAKE OF A WAVE THAT DEPARTED THIS MORNING...AND IN ADVANCE
OF A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH A DEVELOPING RIDGE TOMORROW. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...AND IT WILL ENTER
SE OREGON WED MORNING AND GET THROUGH THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN OREGON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA WED NIGHT...ALLOWING EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO ARRIVE...AND WE
WILL ENTER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO. THERE WILL EVEN
BE A CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY ON
THU BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH. EARLIER MODEL RUNS PUT THE TREASURE VALLEY...FOR EX...INTO
THE MID 60S ON THU. HOWEVER...MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD...TO NEAR 60. IN THIS CASE...DUE TO STRONG SE WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...WE FEEL THE WARMER TEMPS ARE WARRANTED...
AND HAVE ONLY TRIMMED BACK EARLIER FORECAST MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO...LEAVING THEM IN THE MID 60S. FINALLY...THE HRRR IS
INDICATING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WE HAVE RETAINED MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST
AREAS. THIS PRECIP WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING IN SE OREGON AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ON EASTERN OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME. FRIDAY
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AREA...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL RISING TO AROUND 7000
FEET. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW SITS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA. MONDAY
IS WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. GFS WANTS TO SPLIT
THE LOW IN TWO AND BUILDS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THIS LOW FURTHER EAST. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW
A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHIFT....FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHWEST...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES MAKING
THEM DROP DOWN TO WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY BEFORE
06Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4500 FT MSL. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE 5- 15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT
MSL...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-20 KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/JC
AVIATION.....JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Rainfall has been very light so far this evening across the bulk
of central and southeast Illinois, and many areas have not seen
any measurable rainfall at all. Recent model and radar trends
suggest the threat of significant rainfall tonight has decreased
significantly across entire area except far southeast Illinois.
Weak disturbances will continue to stream northeast toward the
area overnight from the cutoff upper low over Mexico. However, the
vigorous convection over the lower Mississippi Valley is likely
minimizing our potential moisture feed and seems to have pushed
the preferred precipitation track closer to the Ohio River Valley.
With this thinking in mind will reduce the nighttime PoPs overall,
and confine the high PoPs to south of I-70. Plan to maintain the
Flood Watch for now, but the threat appears to be decreasing. Otherwise,
going forecast is in pretty good shape and only plan minor tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front southeast of the IL river and approaching I-55 at mid
afternoon will reach near I-72 by sunset and pass southeast of I-70
overnight, getting southeast of Lawrence county late tonight. 1008
mb surface low pressure along the northern TX/LA border to lift ne
along the front near southern tip of IL Thu morning. At mid
afternoon radar mosaic shows rain showers mainly confined to areas
south of I-70 with thunderstorms still south of IL. RAP and HRRR
models spread rain showers ne across central IL during this evening
and continue overnight, with most of the rain staying southeast of
Knox and Stark counties in our far northwest CWA. Instability
parameters limits isolated thunderstorms chances south of I-70.
Models have continued to trend further southeast with heavier qpf
tonight and half to 1 inch along and southeast of a Taylorville to
Decatur to Champaign line with the heavier amounts south of I-70,
with half to three quarter inches of rain in southeast IL Thu. So
will continue the flash flood watch along and south of I-70 thru
Thu. Lows tonight to range from the mid 40s nw of the IL river to
the upper 50s in southeast IL, which stays on the mild side of the
front until late tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Models in good agreement that the rain will be tapering off by
Thursday afternoon in southeast IL. Still looks like a prolonged
period of rain through the weekend, but again, rainfall amounts look
to be on the lower side.
By Thursday morning the cold front is expected to be just north of
the Ohio Valley, with a short wave trough axis in the eastern
Plains. The shortwave will rapidly reach central IL by Thursday
evening, resulting in only lingering showers in southeast IL. High
pressure across the Great Lakes on Friday will push the front south
of the TN Valley and produce plenty of sun and continued mild
temperatures.
An upper low moving out of Texas on Saturday will push the frontal
boundary back north resulting in overrunning rainfall spreading into
central and southeast IL. Initially could see some higher rainfall
totals as low level moisture and isentropic lift is maximized early
Saturday. However, after we get into the warm sector later in the
day Saturday through Sunday the rain will be more showery with
spotty QPF amounts. Both the GFS and European models are similar in
shifting the upper level energy through the lower Ohio Valley by
Monday afternoon, bringing an end to the rain.
By Tuesday the medium range models diverge significantly with their
solutions, having a big impact on our forecast. The GFS is very
aggressive in deepening a mid level shortwave, which then becomes
negatively tilted and lifts through the upper Midwest by Tuesday
evening. This scenario rapidly deepens a surface low and points to a
rather potent thunderstorm episode for the Midwest. The European on
the other hand is 12-18 hours slower and not as deep with the upper
low or associated surface features. For now will side with the less
aggressive European model, and slow things down by keeping the
potential for thunderstorms out of the forecast until Wednesday-Wed
evening in central/eastern IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A slow moving cold front will continue to creep across central
Illinois tonight. Meanwhile, an upper-level disturbance will
spread showers across parts of the area tonight. The showers will
be most widespread across KDEC & KCMI, and have limited the
predominant shower mention to this area. MVFR conditions should
prevail across most terminals for much of the night, with IFR
conditions likely where/when the steadier rains fall. Expect
conditions to trend back up to VFR Thursday as the front pushes
further east and disturbance lifts away from the area.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
557 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front southeast of the IL river and approaching I-55 at mid
afternoon will reach near I-72 by sunset and pass southeast of I-70
overnight, getting southeast of Lawrence county late tonight. 1008
mb surface low pressure along the northern TX/LA border to lift ne
along the front near southern tip of IL Thu morning. At mid
afternoon radar mosaic shows rain showers mainly confined to areas
south of I-70 with thunderstorms still south of IL. RAP and HRRR
models spread rain showers ne across central IL during this evening
and continue overnight, with most of the rain staying southeast of
Knox and Stark counties in our far northwest CWA. Instability
parameters limits isolated thunderstorms chances south of I-70.
Models have continued to trend further southeast with heavier qpf
tonight and half to 1 inch along and southeast of a Taylorville to
Decatur to Champaign line with the heavier amounts south of I-70,
with half to three quarter inches of rain in southeast IL Thu. So
will continue the flash flood watch along and south of I-70 thru
Thu. Lows tonight to range from the mid 40s nw of the IL river to
the upper 50s in southeast IL, which stays on the mild side of the
front until late tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Models in good agreement that the rain will be tapering off by
Thursday afternoon in southeast IL. Still looks like a prolonged
period of rain through the weekend, but again, rainfall amounts look
to be on the lower side.
By Thursday morning the cold front is expected to be just north of
the Ohio Valley, with a short wave trough axis in the eastern
Plains. The shortwave will rapidly reach central IL by Thursday
evening, resulting in only lingering showers in southeast IL. High
pressure across the Great Lakes on Friday will push the front south
of the TN Valley and produce plenty of sun and continued mild
temperatures.
An upper low moving out of Texas on Saturday will push the frontal
boundary back north resulting in overrunning rainfall spreading into
central and southeast IL. Initially could see some higher rainfall
totals as low level moisture and isentropic lift is maximized early
Saturday. However, after we get into the warm sector later in the
day Saturday through Sunday the rain will be more showery with
spotty QPF amounts. Both the GFS and European models are similar in
shifting the upper level energy through the lower Ohio Valley by
Monday afternoon, bringing an end to the rain.
By Tuesday the medium range models diverge significantly with their
solutions, having a big impact on our forecast. The GFS is very
aggressive in deepening a mid level shortwave, which then becomes
negatively tilted and lifts through the upper Midwest by Tuesday
evening. This scenario rapidly deepens a surface low and points to a
rather potent thunderstorm episode for the Midwest. The European on
the other hand is 12-18 hours slower and not as deep with the upper
low or associated surface features. For now will side with the less
aggressive European model, and slow things down by keeping the
potential for thunderstorms out of the forecast until Wednesday-Wed
evening in central/eastern IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A slow moving cold front will continue to creep across central
Illinois tonight. Meanwhile, an upper-level disturbance will
spread showers across parts of the area tonight. The showers will
be most widespread across KDEC & KCMI, and have limited the
predominant shower mention to this area. MVFR conditions should
prevail across most terminals for much of the night, with IFR
conditions likely where/when the steadier rains fall. Expect
conditions to trend back up to VFR Thursday as the front pushes
further east and disturbance lifts away from the area.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1158 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Forecast looks pretty good today and main update is to bump up
highs and SSW winds a bit more. Unseasonably Mild highs again in
the upper 60s and lower 70s today with breezy south winds of 15 to
25 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Will continue chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms west of I-57 this afternoon
with likely chances sw CWA late this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The weather pattern today will be dominated by persistent warm
advection flows. The 850mb LLJ will be primarily focused west of IL
today, with our western areas having the better chances of seeing
increasing moisture content in the boundary layer. The latest HRRR
and RAP guidance are pointed toward mainly isolated showers and
storms affecting our counties west of I-55 today, in response to a
shortwave that will be triggering a wave of showers/storms focused
just west of our forecast area. That wave is projected to pass by to
our west-northwest this morning, with a general break in the precip
chances this afternoon before showers/storms return tonight.
Instability parameters in the latest RAP model show MUCAPE values
climbing to 200-400 J/kg in our far western counties from Rushville
to Galesburg during mid-morning, with a sharp decline to the east
Little to no MUCAPE is indicated along the Illinois river and
eastward during that time. The higher instability axis shifts west
of our counties this afternoon. Have updated the precip chances
today to peak during the morning as the shortwave affects western
IL. We kept our PoPs in the chance category, with isolated storms
mentioned.
Despite a blanket of clouds through the day, the mild south winds
gusting to 30 mph will help boost high temps into the upper 60s to
around 70 again today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Moisture-rich plume of air starting to set up from the western Gulf
of Mexico this morning, with precipitable water values progged to
reach around 1.25 inches by evening and range from 1.4-1.6 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday. Large upper low currently over the
northern Gulf of California helping to set up this moisture feed,
and the low is expected to be in north central Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Latest model runs have been focusing a more northern track
with this low, drifting it into northern Texas late week. With a
large high building off the southeast U.S., our frontal boundary
will be in no particular hurry to exit the region, with a slow
passage Thursday and Thursday evening. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will help bring surges of heavier showers Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. At the current time, the
heaviest rainfall axis remains centered roughly between the Illinois
River and the I-57 corridor with potential for 2-3 inches through
Thursday night. Will continue with the Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and
defer any potential flood headlines to the next shift, since the
heaviest rain is still aways out.
PoP-wise, main area of showers will be lifting northeast out of
Missouri this evening, with a secondary wave overnight further
south. Will have the categorical PoP`s from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward this evening, then spread them east overnight.
PoP`s will remain in the 85-95% range through Thursday morning over
most of the CWA, but will see some decrease from the northwest in
the afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF models are a bit quicker in
drying out the northwest CWA by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS`s
quicker handling of the upper low results in conditions never really
drying out until a brief break Friday morning. Am leaning against
the latter scenario, which seems too fast of a movement for a cutoff
low that size. High pressure over the Great Lakes will feed a drying
northeast flow into the area Thursday night, and did focus a period
of dry conditions over much of the CWA by late night. The ECMWF
would keep us dry into Friday evening as well, but have kept some
lower chance PoP`s in deference to the Canadian model, which spreads
some light rain northward during the afternoon. Periods of showers
are likely into the weekend as the remnants of the low lift
northeast.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the
period. The coolest weather on Friday will still only drop highs
into the 60 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
VFR conditions into mid afternoon over the central IL airports
with scattered cumulus clouds 3-4 k ft and broken mid/high clouds
above 10k ft. Then expect MVFR conditions to develop from west to
east during late afternoon and into this evening as showers and
isolated thunderstorms move in. IFR conditions will then set in
from west to east during overnight and linger into Wed morning
with showers and thunderstorms. Breezy SSW winds 15-20 kts with
gusts of 25-30 kts this afternoon to diminish to 10-15 kts after
sunset and to around 10 kts later tonight into Thu morning and
veer sw.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Forecast looks pretty good today and main update is to bump up
highs and SSW winds a bit more. Unseasonably Mild highs again in
the upper 60s and lower 70s today with breezy south winds of 15 to
25 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Will continue chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms west of I-57 this afternoon
with likely chances sw CWA late this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The weather pattern today will be dominated by persistent warm
advection flows. The 850mb LLJ will be primarily focused west of IL
today, with our western areas having the better chances of seeing
increasing moisture content in the boundary layer. The latest HRRR
and RAP guidance are pointed toward mainly isolated showers and
storms affecting our counties west of I-55 today, in response to a
shortwave that will be triggering a wave of showers/storms focused
just west of our forecast area. That wave is projected to pass by to
our west-northwest this morning, with a general break in the precip
chances this afternoon before showers/storms return tonight.
Instability parameters in the latest RAP model show MUCAPE values
climbing to 200-400 J/kg in our far western counties from Rushville
to Galesburg during mid-morning, with a sharp decline to the east
Little to no MUCAPE is indicated along the Illinois river and
eastward during that time. The higher instability axis shifts west
of our counties this afternoon. Have updated the precip chances
today to peak during the morning as the shortwave affects western
IL. We kept our PoPs in the chance category, with isolated storms
mentioned.
Despite a blanket of clouds through the day, the mild south winds
gusting to 30 mph will help boost high temps into the upper 60s to
around 70 again today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Moisture-rich plume of air starting to set up from the western Gulf
of Mexico this morning, with precipitable water values progged to
reach around 1.25 inches by evening and range from 1.4-1.6 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday. Large upper low currently over the
northern Gulf of California helping to set up this moisture feed,
and the low is expected to be in north central Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Latest model runs have been focusing a more northern track
with this low, drifting it into northern Texas late week. With a
large high building off the southeast U.S., our frontal boundary
will be in no particular hurry to exit the region, with a slow
passage Thursday and Thursday evening. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will help bring surges of heavier showers Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. At the current time, the
heaviest rainfall axis remains centered roughly between the Illinois
River and the I-57 corridor with potential for 2-3 inches through
Thursday night. Will continue with the Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and
defer any potential flood headlines to the next shift, since the
heaviest rain is still aways out.
PoP-wise, main area of showers will be lifting northeast out of
Missouri this evening, with a secondary wave overnight further
south. Will have the categorical PoP`s from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward this evening, then spread them east overnight.
PoP`s will remain in the 85-95% range through Thursday morning over
most of the CWA, but will see some decrease from the northwest in
the afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF models are a bit quicker in
drying out the northwest CWA by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS`s
quicker handling of the upper low results in conditions never really
drying out until a brief break Friday morning. Am leaning against
the latter scenario, which seems too fast of a movement for a cutoff
low that size. High pressure over the Great Lakes will feed a drying
northeast flow into the area Thursday night, and did focus a period
of dry conditions over much of the CWA by late night. The ECMWF
would keep us dry into Friday evening as well, but have kept some
lower chance PoP`s in deference to the Canadian model, which spreads
some light rain northward during the afternoon. Periods of showers
are likely into the weekend as the remnants of the low lift
northeast.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the
period. The coolest weather on Friday will still only drop highs
into the 60 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
A narrow band of showers and isolated storms over eastern
Missouri and eastern Iowa will move north-northeast this morning.
The latest HRRR and RAP output indicate the bulk of the precip
activity will remain to the west of the TAF sites this morning.
The precip coverage appears tied to better forcing associated
with the low level jet west of Illinois. We still could see some
isolated showers develop near PIA this morning as the best forcing
for precip passes by just to the west of our forecast area. A
break in the rain chances is expected this afternoon, before the
850mb LLJ redevelops from SW to NE into west central IL this
evening. That will bring more widespread rainfall and scattered
storms to the terminal sites overnight. Until then, mostly VFR
conditions are expected into the afternoon hours. Currently, VFR
cigs continue with bases around 5000-7000 feet with RAP soundings
showing that little variation from that will occur through most of
the day. We expect a gradual downward trend towards MVFR cigs by
early evening when more widespread precip will be approaching the
TAF sites. Surface winds will be gusty out of the south tonight at
12 to 17 kts, with gusts continuing around 25 kts. South winds
will remain steady tonight in the 12-16kt range.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The weather pattern today will be dominated by persistent warm
advection flows. The 850mb LLJ will be primarily focused west of IL
today, with our western areas having the better chances of seeing
increasing moisture content in the boundary layer. The latest HRRR
and RAP guidance are pointed toward mainly isolated showers and
storms affecting our counties west of I-55 today, in response to a
shortwave that will be triggering a wave of showers/storms focused
just west of our forecast area. That wave is projected to pass by to
our west-northwest this morning, with a general break in the precip
chances this afternoon before showers/storms return tonight.
Instability parameters in the latest RAP model show MUCAPE values
climbing to 200-400 J/kg in our far western counties from Rushville
to Galesburg during mid-morning, with a sharp decline to the east
Little to no MUCAPE is indicated along the Illinois river and
eastward during that time. The higher instability axis shifts west
of our counties this afternoon. Have updated the precip chances
today to peak during the morning as the shortwave affects western
IL. We kept our PoPs in the chance category, with isolated storms
mentioned.
Despite a blanket of clouds through the day, the mild south winds
gusting to 30 mph will help boost high temps into the upper 60s to
around 70 again today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Moisture-rich plume of air starting to set up from the western Gulf
of Mexico this morning, with precipitable water values progged to
reach around 1.25 inches by evening and range from 1.4-1.6 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday. Large upper low currently over the
northern Gulf of California helping to set up this moisture feed,
and the low is expected to be in north central Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Latest model runs have been focusing a more northern track
with this low, drifting it into northern Texas late week. With a
large high building off the southeast U.S., our frontal boundary
will be in no particular hurry to exit the region, with a slow
passage Thursday and Thursday evening. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will help bring surges of heavier showers Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. At the current time, the
heaviest rainfall axis remains centered roughly between the Illinois
River and the I-57 corridor with potential for 2-3 inches through
Thursday night. Will continue with the Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and
defer any potential flood headlines to the next shift, since the
heaviest rain is still aways out.
PoP-wise, main area of showers will be lifting northeast out of
Missouri this evening, with a secondary wave overnight further
south. Will have the categorical PoP`s from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward this evening, then spread them east overnight.
PoP`s will remain in the 85-95% range through Thursday morning over
most of the CWA, but will see some decrease from the northwest in
the afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF models are a bit quicker in
drying out the northwest CWA by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS`s
quicker handling of the upper low results in conditions never really
drying out until a brief break Friday morning. Am leaning against
the latter scenario, which seems too fast of a movement for a cutoff
low that size. High pressure over the Great Lakes will feed a drying
northeast flow into the area Thursday night, and did focus a period
of dry conditions over much of the CWA by late night. The ECMWF
would keep us dry into Friday evening as well, but have kept some
lower chance PoP`s in deference to the Canadian model, which spreads
some light rain northward during the afternoon. Periods of showers
are likely into the weekend as the remnants of the low lift
northeast.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the
period. The coolest weather on Friday will still only drop highs
into the 60 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
A narrow band of showers and isolated storms over eastern
Missouri and eastern Iowa will move north-northeast this morning.
The latest HRRR and RAP output indicate the bulk of the precip
activity will remain to the west of the TAF sites this morning.
The precip coverage appears tied to better forcing associated
with the low level jet west of Illinois. We still could see some
isolated showers develop near PIA this morning as the best forcing
for precip passes by just to the west of our forecast area. A
break in the rain chances is expected this afternoon, before the
850mb LLJ redevelops from SW to NE into west central IL this
evening. That will bring more widespread rainfall and scattered
storms to the terminal sites overnight. Until then, mostly VFR
conditions are expected into the afternoon hours. Currently, VFR
cigs continue with bases around 5000-7000 feet with RAP soundings
showing that little variation from that will occur through most of
the day. We expect a gradual downward trend towards MVFR cigs by
early evening when more widespread precip will be approaching the
TAF sites. Surface winds will be gusty out of the south tonight at
12 to 17 kts, with gusts continuing around 25 kts. South winds
will remain steady tonight in the 12-16kt range.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The weather pattern today will be dominated by persistent warm
advection flows. The 850mb LLJ will be primarily focused west of IL
today, with our western areas having the better chances of seeing
increasing moisture content in the boundary layer. The latest HRRR
and RAP guidance are pointed toward mainly isolated showers and
storms affecting our counties west of I-55 today, in response to a
shortwave that will be triggering a wave of showers/storms focused
just west of our forecast area. That wave is projected to pass by to
our west-northwest this morning, with a general break in the precip
chances this afternoon before showers/storms return tonight.
Instability parameters in the latest RAP model show MUCAPE values
climbing to 200-400 J/kg in our far western counties from Rushville
to Galesburg during mid-morning, with a sharp decline to the east
Little to no MUCAPE is indicated along the Illinois river and
eastward during that time. The higher instability axis shifts west
of our counties this afternoon. Have updated the precip chances
today to peak during the morning as the shortwave affects western
IL. We kept our PoPs in the chance category, with isolated storms
mentioned.
Despite a blanket of clouds through the day, the mild south winds
gusting to 30 mph will help boost high temps into the upper 60s to
around 70 again today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Moisture-rich plume of air starting to set up from the western Gulf
of Mexico this morning, with precipitable water values progged to
reach around 1.25 inches by evening and range from 1.4-1.6 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday. Large upper low currently over the
northern Gulf of California helping to set up this moisture feed,
and the low is expected to be in north central Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Latest model runs have been focusing a more northern track
with this low, drifting it into northern Texas late week. With a
large high building off the southeast U.S., our frontal boundary
will be in no particular hurry to exit the region, with a slow
passage Thursday and Thursday evening. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will help bring surges of heavier showers Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. At the current time, the
heaviest rainfall axis remains centered roughly between the Illinois
River and the I-57 corridor with potential for 2-3 inches through
Thursday night. Will continue with the Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and
defer any potential flood headlines to the next shift, since the
heaviest rain is still aways out.
PoP-wise, main area of showers will be lifting northeast out of
Missouri this evening, with a secondary wave overnight further
south. Will have the categorical PoP`s from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward this evening, then spread them east overnight.
PoP`s will remain in the 85-95% range through Thursday morning over
most of the CWA, but will see some decrease from the northwest in
the afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF models are a bit quicker in
drying out the northwest CWA by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS`s
quicker handling of the upper low results in conditions never really
drying out until a brief break Friday morning. Am leaning against
the latter scenario, which seems too fast of a movement for a cutoff
low that size. High pressure over the Great Lakes will feed a drying
northeast flow into the area Thursday night, and did focus a period
of dry conditions over much of the CWA by late night. The ECMWF
would keep us dry into Friday evening as well, but have kept some
lower chance PoP`s in deference to the Canadian model, which spreads
some light rain northward during the afternoon. Periods of showers
are likely into the weekend as the remnants of the low lift
northeast.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the
period. The coolest weather on Friday will still only drop highs
into the 60 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
Large area of convection over Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
moving mainly north with the bulk of the activity remaining
to the west of the TAF sites during the early morning hours,
closer to the better forcing associated with the low level jet.
We still could see some isolated showers develop in the broad
southerly flow across the region by morning with our best chances
for more widespread rainfall holding off until later tomorrow
night. Until then, mostly VFR conditions are expected into the
afternoon hours. Currently, VFR cigs continue with bases around
5000 feet with RAP soundings not showing much variation from that
thru Tuesday with a gradual downward trend towards MVFR cigs by
late afternoon or just after 00z when more widespread precip will
be approaching the TAF sites. Surface winds will be gusty out of
the south tonight at 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts around 25 kts.
South winds continue on Tuesday at 12 to 17 kts, with gusts
continuing around 25 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1130 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
The upper wave which brought scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to our area this morning has shifted well off
to our northeast this evening. 00z ILX sounding exhibiting
an impressive inversion in the wake of the shortwave at 800 mb
with steep lapse rates seen in the 700-500 mb layer. Most of the
operational models continue to keep the bulk of the overnight and
early morning shower activity mainly to our west. In fact, the
latest NAM-WRF model keeps the bulk of the shower activity west of
the Illinois River through most of Tuesday.
The latest surface map was showing low to mid 60 dew points across
the Southern Plains this evening with some of that air headed our
way. Our dew points have climbed into the lower 40s east to the
lower 50s far west this evening and that increase in low level
moisture combined with southerly winds and extensive mid and high
level cloud cover will keep temperatures quite mild with most of
our area staying in the 50s overnight. PWAT values by tomorrow
afternoon and evening are forecast to rise to around 1.3 inches,
well above normal for the first week of March. It still appears
the more concentrated area of showers and isolated storms will
shift northeast into at least the western half of the forecast
area Tuesday night into Wednesday. That will be one of several
rounds of showers and storms that will occur over our area this
week.
Have made only minor adjustments to the precip chances across the
west and tried to pull back on the slights further east during
Tuesday morning as it appears the bulk of the better forcing
during this time frame will remain along or west of the Illinois
River valley. Update should be out by 915 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
While one minor short-wave trough has lifted into the southern Great
Lakes early this afternoon, a second more potent wave is evident on
19z/1pm water vapor imagery over Colorado. Short-wave ridging
between these two features will lead to dry conditions across
central Illinois this afternoon and evening, with any precip holding
off until late tonight. Convection is already beginning to blossom
ahead of the Colorado wave over north-central Texas, and this
activity will track N/NE into the Mississippi River Valley tonight.
Trajectory of convection will keep it generally along/west of the
Mississippi River until well after midnight when scattered
showers/thunder may nudge into west-central Illinois. Models are in
fairly good agreement, with the NAM keeping the KILX CWA dry until
after 09z. Have therefore gone with a dry forecast across the board
this evening, followed by gradually increasing PoPs after midnight.
Have included slight chances as far east as the I-55 corridor by
dawn Tuesday, with higher chances confined to the Illinois River
Valley. Breezy and mild conditions will persist, with overnight low
temperatures remaining in the middle 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. A substantial plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain
in the vicinity of central IL for much of the upcoming work week,
interacting with a frontal boundary. Model runs have shifted the
axis of heaviest precipitation northward somewhat for midweek to
bring roughly 2 to 2.5 inches forecast by Thursday afternoon from I-
70 northward throughout central IL. To the south...totals should be
more like 1 to 2 inches through Thursday afternoon
For Tuesday...shower and thunderstorm activity should start the day
toward western IL as a low and attendant frontal boundary remain far
off to the northwest. More extensive and heavier precipitation is
expected to begin Tuesday night as the frontal boundary edges closer
and the precipitable water plume...forecast around 1.3 inches (near
mid-march maximum)...shifts over the area. This will allow a series
of disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow to bring periods
of moderate to heavy rain. The heaviest time period now looks to be
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
In the longer range, the ultimate southeastward movement of the
frontal boundary and the handling of an upper low moving out of
Mexico late week lead to significant uncertainty in the
precipitation forecast Friday to Saturday. The ECMWF moves the
frontal boundary furthest southeast and the low movement slowest.
The slower solution seems the most likely given the large scale
pattern setting up. Have blended in the slower solution offered by
the ECMWF, but overall uncertainty in the rain forecast that far out
is high at this point, and have included at least a slight chance
for precipitation Thursday night through Saturday morning. For
Friday...that would mean substantial chances for precipitation would
remain south of I-72. The upper low ejecting northeastward over the
weekend brings a widespread chance of precipitation back to all of
central and southeast IL Saturday through Monday.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s. Lows mainly in the 50s...but
potentially dropping into the 40s Friday through Monday depending on
how far southeast the frontal boundary manages to shift by late in
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
Large area of convection over Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
moving mainly north with the bulk of the activity remaining
to the west of the TAF sites during the early morning hours,
closer to the better forcing associated with the low level jet.
We still could see some isolated showers develop in the broad
southerly flow across the region by morning with our best chances
for more widespread rainfall holding off until later tomorrow
night. Until then, mostly VFR conditions are expected into the
afternoon hours. Currently, VFR cigs continue with bases around
5000 feet with RAP soundings not showing much variation from that
thru Tuesday with a gradual downward trend towards MVFR cigs by
late afternoon or just after 00z when more widespread precip will
be approaching the TAF sites. Surface winds will be gusty out of
the south tonight at 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts around 25 kts.
South winds continue on Tuesday at 12 to 17 kts, with gusts
continuing around 25 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN THE PLAINS.
OBSERVATION AND RAP MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A NEW ROUND OF MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEEN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS
TO SIGOURNEY IOWA LINE.
RAP AND OTHER MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEEN DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. SOUTH OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
INTERNALLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BEING DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CUTOFF LOW AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOW CUTOFF
TO THE SOUTH AND NO APPRECIABLE WAVE TO KICK IT OUT...THE MODELS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PRODUCE PRECIP WITH THE SSW FLOW AS WAVES
TRANSVERSES THE FLOW BEFORE IT MOVES OUT. OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR
THOSE SYSTEMS TO CLIP THE EASTERN CWA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE 18Z NAM IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE QPF OUT OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SWATH OF QPF.
THE BULK OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO FALL FROM ST LOUIS TO THE SOUTH SIDE
OF CHICAGO. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS TREND KEEPS UP AND MOST OF THE QPF ACTUALLY MISSES THE CWA. MY
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE OVERDONE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE TREND THAT THE ECMWF AND GEM
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...THE GFS FINALLY BOUGHT INTO WITH H5 RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH NO WAVE TO KICK OUT THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TX...THIS RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH TEMPS THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THE NEXT WAVE
DOESNT APPROACH THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK NORTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE
AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA. MY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS LOW AS CLOSED LOWS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...BUT I DONT THINK IT WILL LAST THE WHOLE TIME. AS THE NEXT
WAVE HITS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...FORECAST SKILL SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WILL START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/09 AS SHOWERS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY DECAY. AFT 00Z/09 VFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DECAY TO MVFR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THAT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF MISSOURI
INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP INDICATE A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IF THE RAP TRENDS ARE CORRECT IT APPEARS THAT NEW CONVECTION MAY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE VORT MAX...GENERATED BY THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STORM COMPLEX...ARRIVES IN MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
UPDATED FORECAST HIGHS ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 DEGREES CLOSER TO 70 AFTER
SEEING THE LARGE CLEARING UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN MO INTO SW IA ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND CONSIDERING THE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WAS TRIGGERING SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL IA...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
BREEZY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE STILL IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S. THE SOUTH WINDS WERE OUT AHEAD OF A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT...THE FLOW OVERHEAD
WAS SOUTHWEST BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EVOLVING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES REACHING TO AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA
CA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SD...WHILE
WEAKER IMPULSES WERE FOUND IN THE SW FLOW FROM TX TO IA...WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE PRODUCING A DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN OK INTO SW MO. A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE
WAS ENTERING CENTRAL AND SE IA. OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL IA...SO FAR THERE HAS ONLY BEEN HIGH BASED WEAK REFLECTIVITY
WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SE IA INTO W CENTRAL MO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN FOCUS
THROUGHOUT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS
THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
BREAK OUT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE WEAK
IMPULSES ADVANCING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH CONVECTION SO
FAR YET TO TAKE OFF AND POOR HANDLE DEMONSTRATED OVERNIGHT BY BOTH
HIGH RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS...HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER POPS FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING LOOKING AT THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A BREAK BETWEEN PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS
SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY IF NOT WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO
25 MPH. THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SEEN YESTERDAY...LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 60S. IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
OCCUR...THE FORECAST WOULD NEED TO BE UPDATED FOR HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SENDING A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE FAR SOUTH AND HAVE POPS RAMPING UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY.
TONIGHT...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WHERE THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE KEPT ROUGHLY IN A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH MODEL PW VALUES AS HIGH
AS 1.3 EARLIER ADVERTISED INTO N CENTRAL IL LIKELY TOO HIGH LOOKING
AT THE TOO MOIST INITIALIZATION IN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS FROM TX
INTO MO AT 00Z. MODEL MUCAPE VALUES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS OUR NW...WHILE
LOWS ARE HELD IN THE MID 50S IN THE SE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODELS AND ASSESSING
THEIR MASS FORCING...SUGGEST THAT INITIAL SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL RIPPLE TO THE NORTHEAST WED MORNING AND TAKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH IT FOR A TEMPORARY RAIN LULL MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN NE-TO-SW ORIENTED LLVL FRONT/BAROCLINICITY WILL
TRY TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PUSH THIS PERIOD TOO...BUT SIGNALS ON THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF EDGING
EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS AND MORE LLVL CYCLOGENESIS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAIN TO STALL IT AGAIN ALIGNED UNDER SOUTHWESTERLIES
ARCHING INTO THE GRT LKS. UPPER LOW PINCHES OFF ACRS SOUTHERN TX
INTO MEX WED NIGHT...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
SHUTTLING ANOTHER VORT TOWARD THE AREA WHILE 40-50 KT SSW LLJ SURGES
MORE THTA-E JUICED AIR UP TOWARD THE REGION.
BUT THE LATEST 00Z PROGS ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED THIS
PROCESS A BIT BACK TO THE EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS WHILE
ANOTHER WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FUELED BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AND AFFECT THE AREA FROM
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS TARGET AREAS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE NEW
EURO PRODUCES JUST A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR FROM LATE
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THU...WHILE THE 00Z GFS GENERATES
GENERALLY 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE SAME AREAS/TIME FRAME. THE AMERICAN
MODELS PROJECT PWAT FEEDS OF 1 TO 1.3 INCHES UP ACRS THE AREA BY WED
NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE EXTENT OF DEEP FORCING/LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
TRIMMING BACK THE PWATS MORE TO AROUND 1 INCH...STILL PRODUCES FROM
0.50 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH ALONG THE MS RVR...WITH 0.90 TO 1.3 INCH
AMOUNTS BY MID THU MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MEMPHIS MO...TO MOLINE IL AND TO STERLING IL. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THESE COMPROMISE AMOUNTS. WITH THE UPPER L/W TROF LOOKING TO PUSH A
BIT FURTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...DO LIKE THE IDEA OF
MOST OF THE PRECIP OCCURRING/SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY THU
AFTERNOON. DO SEE THE MAIN EMBEDDED THUNDER THREAT WED AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE DVN CWA BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION OCCURS. IF THE WESTERN IL INTO
THE EASTERN CWA I80 CORRIDOR GETS OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WED
NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME NUISANCE RUN-OFF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
TYPE FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER...BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY SEE
ANYTHING WARRANTING A HYDRO-HEADLINE OF SOME TYPE.
AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY LAYING OUT FROM NE-TO-SW
ACRS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...SEE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD FROM THE
LOW TO MID 50S IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FCST AREA...TO THE MID
60S IN THE FARE SOUTHEAST. MORE EVEN..POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 50S
ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO BUILD DOWN AND SCOUR THINGS OUT
FOR THU NIGHT...IF WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH MANY AREAS DIPPING BACK
INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS BY FRI MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER A DRY FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 50S IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE...THE TRICK TO THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROF
BASE REMNANT LOW COMING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GEM
AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT EVEN MOST OF FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
SLOWED/PARTIALLY BLOCKED ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW REMNANTS...WHILE
THE 00Z GFS BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT.
THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTION PROBABLY NOT BEING HANDLED WELL YET BY
THESE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS...BUT FEEL THE GEM/ECMWF COMBO
MORE ON TRACK WITH A SLOWED/BLOCKED TREND. BUT THESE MODELS PRODUCE
SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE PULLING THE OPENING WAVE
REMNANTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/RAIN.
NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS
PERIOD TO BE A LULL WINDOW IN BETWEEN SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS OR
PROCESSES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM PLAYS OUT. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/09 AS SHOWERS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY DECAY. AFT 00Z/09 VFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DECAY TO MVFR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THAT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF MISSOURI
INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Impressive convective complex across the southern plains this
morning, with the NW periphery affecting Barber county and
surrounding areas. These storms have been efficient rain
producers, with radar accumulation data indicating 1/2 to locally
1 inch of rain has fallen across SE Barber county. Did another
update to expand shower mention further NW as suggested by HRRR,
and to increase cloud cover given thick convective cirrus canopy.
With all the clouds, we will likely struggle to reach forecasted
high temperatures.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Updated to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage substantially
across Barber county and surrounding areas, to account for line of
convection spreading in from Oklahoma. Uncertain how far NW this
shower and thunderstorm activity will spread, but current HRRR run
is a good first guess, including about the SE 1/3 of the CWA.
Elevated CAPE will allow for strongest convection to produce some
small hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
VFR will continue through 18z Wednesday. Mid/high cloud canopy
from southern plains convective complex will gradually thin out
late this afternoon. -SHRA and isolated convection will remain in
eastern KS through 00z, and kept all TAFs dry. Variable amounts of
high clouds through Wednesday morning. Gusty north winds of 10-20
kts early this afternoon will diminish to a light north wind this
evening, followed by a NE wind near 10 kts around 12z Wed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 61 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 37 60 37 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 61 38 62 37 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 62 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 65 45 65 42 / 70 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
930 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Impressive convective complex across the southern plains this
morning, with the NW periphery affecting Barber county and
surrounding areas. These storms have been efficient rain
producers, with radar accumulation data indicating 1/2 to locally
1 inch of rain has fallen across SE Barber county. Did another
update to expand shower mention further NW as suggested by HRRR,
and to increase cloud cover given thick convective cirrus canopy.
With all the clouds, we will likely struggle to reach forecasted
high temperatures.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Updated to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage substantially
across Barber county and surrounding areas, to account for line of
convection spreading in from Oklahoma. Uncertain how far NW this
shower and thunderstorm activity will spread, but current HRRR run
is a good first guess, including about the SE 1/3 of the CWA.
Elevated CAPE will allow for strongest convection to produce some
small hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Clouds across western Kansas will increase early today as
moisture and lift improves in the 700mb to 500mb level based on
the latest RAP and NAM. Based on the BUFR soundings along with the
RAP and HRRR cloud bases today will lower but stay in the VFR
category through early tonight. There may even be a slight chance
rain showers after 00z Wednesday, however given the low
probability will not include mention of this precipitation at this
time. Winds will be north at 10 to 15 knots early today but
between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday the winds will begin to
gradually veer to the east northeast. Wind speeds fall back to 10
knots or less late this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 61 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 37 60 37 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 61 38 62 37 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 62 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 65 45 65 42 / 70 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
828 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Updated to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage substantially
across Barber county and surrounding areas, to account for line of
convection spreading in from Oklahoma. Uncertain how far NW this
shower and thunderstorm activity will spread, but current HRRR run
is a good first guess, including about the SE 1/3 of the CWA.
Elevated CAPE will allow for strongest convection to produce some
small hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Clouds across western Kansas will increase early today as
moisture and lift improves in the 700mb to 500mb level based on
the latest RAP and NAM. Based on the BUFR soundings along with the
RAP and HRRR cloud bases today will lower but stay in the VFR
category through early tonight. There may even be a slight chance
rain showers after 00z Wednesday, however given the low
probability will not include mention of this precipitation at this
time. Winds will be north at 10 to 15 knots early today but
between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday the winds will begin to
gradually veer to the east northeast. Wind speeds fall back to 10
knots or less late this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 61 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 37 60 37 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 61 38 62 37 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 62 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 65 45 65 42 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Clouds across western Kansas will increase early today as
moisture and lift improves in the 700mb to 500mb level based on
the latest RAP and NAM. Based on the BUFR soundings along with the
RAP and HRRR cloud bases today will lower but stay in the VFR
category through early tonight. There may even be a slight chance
rain showers after 00z Wednesday, however given the low
probability will not include mention of this precipitation at this
time. Winds will be north at 10 to 15 knots early today but
between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday the winds will begin to
gradually veer to the east northeast. Wind speeds fall back to 10
knots or less late this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 61 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 37 60 37 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 61 38 62 37 / 10 20 20 20
HYS 62 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 65 45 65 42 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
...Updated Short term and Long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
A cold front will cross southwest Kansas between 06z and 09z
Tuesday. As this front passes the southerly winds will shift to
the northwest and drier air in the lower levels will begin to
advect into western Kansas. At this time based on the timing of
the cold front low clouds/status is not anticipated at DDC and HYS
but there may be a brief period of scattered clouds in the
IFR/LIFR category over the next few hours. The cold front will
move into the Texas panhandle and south central Kansas by morning
where it will become nearly stationary during the day on Tuesday.
Northwest winds behind this front will continue through the day
across southwest Kansas at 10 to 15 knots. An upper level
disturbance lifting northeast across Oklahoma into Kansas early
today will spread mid and high level moisture back into western
Kansas early Tuesday. Based on NAM BUFR soundings along with the
HRRR and RAP the ceilings that will be developing after 15z
Tuesday will be at or above the 3000 ft AGL so VFR conditions are
expected through Tuesday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 62 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 60 37 60 37 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 63 38 62 37 / 10 20 20 20
HYS 63 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 67 45 65 42 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1147 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
CA/ NORTHERN BAJA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
DRIFTING E OVER EASTERN CO. DOWNSTAIRS A DRY LINE CURVED FROM
AROUND KHLC THRU ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN KPTT & KDDC TO JUST W OF
KGAG. ACROSS THE KICT NEIGHBORHOOD...SLY 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS
CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT MID & UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL &
EASTERN KS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPED ALONG OR JUST WEST OF
THE DRYLINE LOCATED FROM KHYS TO KP23. THIS ISOLATED SUPERCELL
CONTINUES TO RACE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS KSLN. NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM TO STAY STRONG OR SEVERE MUCH LONGER AS IT
MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE SURFACE BASED AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL KS. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TO KEEP IT A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT HAIL THREAT WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY PEA SIZE.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CURRENTLY OVER
SE KS INTO WRN MO. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIDING THE COMPLEX
OF STORMS IN ERN OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX
TO MOVE NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SE KS LATE TONIGHT.
COULD SEE A LULL IN THE CONVECTION FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS THIS AREA MAY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUE MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) EXTREME FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL ALONG & W OF K-14 UNTIL 7 PM
CST. 2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG & JUST E OF DRY LINE
THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT:
THE FIRST 2 ISSUES ARE THE RED FLAG WARNING & WIND ADVISORY THAT
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS & MOST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG & W OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STRUGGLING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREAS WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAGS HOISTED AS SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN STIFF THIS EVENING.
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SW FLANK OF OUR CWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OVER COMANCHE...BARBER & PRATT
COUNTIES ~6 PM. FOR NOW THE CAP LOCATED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER IS
TIGHT OVER OUR SWRN-MOST COUNTIES...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE FROM
EASTERN OK TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/SD BORDER A "PACIFIC"
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TOWARD CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
THE GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER INTO
SOUTHEAST KS.
TUE-WED NIGHT:
AS THE FAR SWRN MID-UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK E TOWARD THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN W TX/TX
PANHANDLE REGION. THE FRONT WOULD STALL THEN UNDERGO WARM FRONTO-
GENESIS ON TUE. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING N THEN NW ACROSS EASTERN KS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING FURTHER INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. AS THE SFC CYCLONE PUSHES E ACROSS E TX...WIDESPREAD
RAINS WOULD WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE WITH SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN
THE BENEFICIARY OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.
THU & THU NIGHT:
THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREE ON IT`S TRACK WITH GFS
FURTHER N OVER E TX THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT POSITIONED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WOULD OF COURSE HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. CONSIDERING THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE
SITUATED FROM THE GULF TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SLOWER
ECMWF IS PREFERRED. AS SUCH WRAP-AROUND RAINS WOULD SPREAD FURTHER
W ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WITH SOMEWHAT OF ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE GREATER UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD RESIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE POSSIBLY GRAZING CHANUTE THROUGH
ABOUT 09Z/3AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY FILL IN ONCE AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...DUE TO
DIURNAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST
AND AFFECT THE REGION BY AROUND 15Z/9AM TUESDAY MORNING...AS DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS. HANDLED THIS SITUATION WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
ADK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE CONTINUED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER INDICES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE WORK-WEEK. WILL HOWEVER
KEEP THE RED FLAGS HOISTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135
UNTIL 7 PM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 66 49 62 / 30 50 50 40
HUTCHINSON 54 66 45 62 / 20 30 30 20
NEWTON 55 65 47 61 / 20 50 50 40
ELDORADO 57 66 49 62 / 30 70 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 66 51 63 / 30 70 60 50
RUSSELL 45 65 41 62 / 10 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 46 64 42 62 / 10 10 20 0
SALINA 54 67 45 62 / 20 20 30 10
MCPHERSON 54 65 45 61 / 20 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 60 68 54 63 / 70 90 80 80
CHANUTE 59 68 53 63 / 70 90 80 80
IOLA 58 66 52 62 / 70 90 80 80
PARSONS-KPPF 59 68 53 63 / 70 90 80 80
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1132 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
At 00z Tuesday a 500mb low was located over southern California
with a weaker upper level disturbance evident over far southwest
Texas and southern New Mexico. Over the Central Plains a surface
cold front was located in Nebraska with a dry line extending south
from the area of low pressure into central Kansas and far western
Oklahoma. A cold front stretched from southwest Nebraska into
southeast Colorado. 850mb temperatures ahead of the surface cold
front was +18c at Amarillo, Dodge City and North Platte. Behind
the cold front Rapid City reported an 850mb temperature of +7.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
A slight chance of thunderstorms will remain possible ahead of the
aforementioned dry line tonight. Otherwise expect mostly clear
skies across the forecast area. Meanwhile, an intensifying area of
low pressure and associated cold front will move out of eastern
Colorado and through the CWA by sunrise tomorrow. This feature
will shift winds to more of a northwesterly direction. The upper
level low currently over the Desert southwest will dig southward
and move across northern Mexico tomorrow then into the Southern
Plains tomorrow night. Mid level moisture will increase as this
feature shifts eastward leading to mid level clouds enveloping the
area by tomorrow afternoon. An area of low pressure will also
intensify across the Southern Plains tomorrow as this feature
approaches with winds across western Kansas shifting to more of a
northeasterly direction. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
progged to range from around freezing along the KS/CO border to
around 50 degrees across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look
to range from around 60 degrees along the KS/CO border to upper
60s across central and south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
The upper level low will move into southwest Texas Tuesday night
into Wednesday and slowly trek across the remainder of Texas
through Friday. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary at the surface looks
to extend northeastward across Texas, Oklahoma, and into portions
of Kansas. Where this boundary actually sets up is the main
challenge and pin pointing how much precipitation will fall across
the CWA. South central Kansas looks to have the best chance of
precipitation through Friday with the remainder of the CWA
remaining dry. There are a few models that show precipitation
falling farther north but have stuck with the solution to keep
this activity to the south. Skies will be mostly cloudy Tuesday
night with decreasing cloudiness Wednesday and continue into this
weekend. The only exception to this will be across south central
Kansas where clouds may stick around due to the aforementioned
frontal boundary. Winds look to generally be from the north to
northeast through Friday as an area of low pressure remains south
of the area. The Upper level low then ejects northeastward this
weekend with an upper level shortwave moving into the Western
United States. Weak ridging will be in place above the Plains
during this time frame leading to dry conditions across western
Kansas. As for temperatures, highs look to generally be in the 60s
through Friday then increase into the lower 70s this weekend. Lows
are expected to range from the lower 30s across west central
Kansas to mid 40s across south central Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
A cold front will cross southwest Kansas between 06z and 09z
Tuesday. As this front passes the southerly winds will shift to
the northwest and drier air in the lower levels will begin to
advect into western Kansas. At this time based on the timing of
the cold front low clouds/status is not anticipated at DDC and HYS
but there may be a brief period of scattered clouds in the
IFR/LIFR category over the next few hours. The cold front will
move into the Texas panhandle and south central Kansas by morning
where it will become nearly stationary during the day on Tuesday.
Northwest winds behind this front will continue through the day
across southwest Kansas at 10 to 15 knots. An upper level
disturbance lifting northeast across Oklahoma into Kansas early
today will spread mid and high level moisture back into western
Kansas early Tuesday. Based on NAM BUFR soundings along with the
HRRR and RAP the ceilings that will be developing after 15z
Tuesday will be at or above the 3000 ft AGL so VFR conditions are
expected through Tuesday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 41 64 40 65 / 10 10 20 10
GCK 37 62 36 64 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 37 60 37 62 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 39 63 38 64 / 0 10 20 10
HYS 43 63 39 63 / 0 10 10 10
P28 51 67 45 65 / 20 40 30 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
112 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED BREAK UP OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY...SO EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS AND THIS CLEARING TO
ALLOW FOR QUITE A COOLDOWN ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING IT QUIET THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WEEK AND THAT IS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE TONIGHT. THE ONLY ITEM OF
INTEREST TONIGHT HAS BEEN THE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AS USUAL THE
DEEPER VALLEYS ARE DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TEMP WISE. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ALSO SOME BREAKS SEEN ON THE
IR SAT. ALL THAT SAID...GOING TO KEEP THE TEMP SPLITS GOING. NOT
ONLY THAT BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE COULD SEE
CONTINUED CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING...AND THIS WOULD
ONLY FURTHER REINFORCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY WITH SAT DATA AND
TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. KENTUCKY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING IN WARMER
AIR AND SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. THIS RISE WAS DESPITE
ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY AS A HIGH LAYER OF RATHER THICK CLOUDS
MOVED OVER THE STATE. AT 3 PM...READINGS HAD MADE IT TO THE LOW
AND MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OR SO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING DEEP AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...KEEPING THE RIDGE STRONG OVER
THE AREA LONGER. KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM MEANING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR OUR AREA. WHILE SOME SHORTWAVES...LIKE THE ONE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...THE
STRONGER ONES WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THEY THIN AND BREAK UP HEADING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS...AND SOME MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
SHOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAY THIS MORNING. EVEN SO...IN
GENERAL...A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MORE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS WITH LESSER DIFFERENCES ELSEWHERE. AGAIN
WOULD EXPECT THE DIURNAL T CURVE TO BE SHARP AFTER SUNSET FOR
THESE VALLEYS AS THEY QUICKLY DROP OFF. TUESDAY WILL BE AN EVEN
NICER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TAKING OFF TO THE LOW AND MID 70S BY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER RELATIVE TERRAIN BASED TEMPERATURE SPLIT...MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE
FOR FOG EITHER NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TONIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DISTINCTION...ESPECIALLY
EAST. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY KEPT THEM ZEROED OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO WANT TO BUDGE. IN FACT...THE
FEATURE THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE HIGH EAST IS SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIP THROUGH KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ULTIMATELY FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. SO...UNTIL THESE MODELS
CAN LATCH ONTO THE FEATURE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EVOLUTION OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS...EXPECT CONTINUED DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONSISTS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THICKER CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED TO FL120 OR ABOVE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KNOTS AT FL020 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WILL ENSUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITHOUT ANY EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF GUSTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
956 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ALL HAZARDS REMAIN UNCHANGED THIS EVENING...AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...MAINLY POP/WX/TEMP BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH JASPER
COUNTY...NEWTON COUNTY...AND VERNON PARISH TAKING THE BRUNT OF IT.
LIKELIHOOD THAT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE EXTENDED BEYOND THE
CURRENT EXPIRATION TIMES. LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TAKE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND
MEAN RH OVER 85 PERCENT FROM 10/00Z KLCH UPPER AIR SOUNDING) AND
RIDES IT OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM JUST WEST
OF ALEXANDRIA TO JUST NORTHWEST OF BEAUMONT. WEST END OF THE BOUNDARY
WAFFLED A LITTLE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST HOUR...LESSENING
THE SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AS RADAR IS SHOWING
A BAND BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND JENNINGS UP
THROUGH ALLEN PARISH INTO RAPIDES. THIS IS ON THE EDGE OF MSAS
ANALYSIS OF STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND THIS AREA
MAY VERY WELL FILL IN AND TRAIN AS NOCTURNAL JET PREVAILS...AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ALSO...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
STILL WANTING TO DEVELOP A MCS LIKE FEATURE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PUSH EVERYTHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING
EARLY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT IN THAT
HAPPENING AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ACADIANA MAY
MISS OUT ON ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW OVER EAST
TEXAS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL LA...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. EARLIER EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED NEAR A FT POLK TO PORT
ARTHUR LINE. TAF PACKAGE WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH AT LEAST SOME
EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN MIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS
INDICATED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RE-
EVALUATED IN TERMS OF TSRA TIMING PENDING RADAR TRENDS. IN ANY
CASE...MVFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH
ELEVATED AND AT TIMES GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY KLCH-KLFT-
KARA. IFR TO LIFR IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXTENDING FM ARK SSW INTO NRN LA/ERN TX DOWN TOWARD FAR S TX.
WHILE THIS LARGER AREA OF STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING DUE TO DEEP
UPR LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO...THE ACTIVITY ACRS SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL
LA HAS BEEN AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A MLU-JAS-IAH LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS HAVE RANGED FM 1.5 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES ACRS NRN
JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES AND NWRN VERNON PARISH...WHILE STORM
TOTALS SINCE YESTERDAY ARE NEARLY 7.5 INCHES ACRS THE SAME REGION.
THE OVERALL SVR THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY THANKS TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN
ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS WITH ROTATION TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER TX AND HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST.
SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE AGAIN SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT VIGOROUS UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES/FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT HAZARDS...FLOOD
WATCH...WIND ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PKG WILL BE QPF OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD LATEST HRRR TRENDS WHICH
SEEM TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB ON PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/HIGHER
QPF. THUS...KEPT HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX THIS
EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AS
WELL AS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL QPF TOTALS FM 00Z-12Z
INDICATE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES ACRS SE TX...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL
SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AS IS
ALSO THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE FORCING AND THE TRANSLATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...WHICH CAN
IMPACT WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND TRAINING STORMS SET UP. THIS CAN
RESULT IN HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS THE
WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN ACRS
MULTIPLE AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST...PLACING MORE OF CNTL LA AND THE ACADIANA REGION UNDER THE
HEAVIEST BULLS-EYE. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BANDS OF RAIN BEGIN TO TRAIN
OVER THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN CHCS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT NOT QUITE
COME TO AN END THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE LARGE UPR LOW WEAKENS
AND LIFTS OUT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR
RAIN TO THE EXTREME NRN ZONES. THINGS THEN LOOK TO BEGIN DRYING
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
FETCH OF STRONG SLY WINDS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE GALE WARNINGS LOWERING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GRADUALLY
BCMG MORE SWLY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 77 67 74 / 90 100 90 80
LCH 70 77 65 74 / 80 90 80 70
LFT 72 76 67 74 / 70 100 90 80
BPT 69 77 64 76 / 90 90 80 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-
074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-
031>033-042>045-052>055-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
073-074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-
073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ455.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
643 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW OVER EAST
TEXAS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL LA...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. EARLIER EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED NEAR A FT POLK TO PORT
ARTHUR LINE. TAF PACKAGE WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH AT LEAST SOME
EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN MIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS
INDICATED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RE-
EVALUATED IN TERMS OF TSRA TIMING PENDING RADAR TRENDS. IN ANY
CASE...MVFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH
ELEVATED AND AT TIMES GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY KLCH-KLFT-
KARA. IFR TO LIFR IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXTENDING FM ARK SSW INTO NRN LA/ERN TX DOWN TOWARD FAR S TX.
WHILE THIS LARGER AREA OF STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING DUE TO DEEP
UPR LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO...THE ACTIVITY ACRS SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL
LA HAS BEEN AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A MLU-JAS-IAH LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS HAVE RANGED FM 1.5 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES ACRS NRN
JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES AND NWRN VERNON PARISH...WHILE STORM
TOTALS SINCE YESTERDAY ARE NEARLY 7.5 INCHES ACRS THE SAME REGION.
THE OVERALL SVR THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY THANKS TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN
ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS WITH ROTATION TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER TX AND HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST.
SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE AGAIN SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT VIGOROUS UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES/FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT HAZARDS...FLOOD
WATCH...WIND ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PKG WILL BE QPF OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD LATEST HRRR TRENDS WHICH
SEEM TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB ON PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/HIGHER
QPF. THUS...KEPT HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX THIS
EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AS
WELL AS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL QPF TOTALS FM 00Z-12Z
INDICATE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES ACRS SE TX...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL
SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AS IS
ALSO THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE FORCING AND THE TRANSLATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...WHICH CAN
IMPACT WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND TRAINING STORMS SET UP. THIS CAN
RESULT IN HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS THE
WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN ACRS
MULTIPLE AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST...PLACING MORE OF CNTL LA AND THE ACADIANA REGION UNDER THE
HEAVIEST BULLS-EYE. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BANDS OF RAIN BEGIN TO TRAIN
OVER THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN CHCS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT NOT QUITE
COME TO AN END THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE LARGE UPR LOW WEAKENS
AND LIFTS OUT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR
RAIN TO THE EXTREME NRN ZONES. THINGS THEN LOOK TO BEGIN DRYING
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
FETCH OF STRONG SLY WINDS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE GALE WARNINGS LOWERING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GRADUALLY
BCMG MORE SWLY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 68 77 67 74 / 100 100 90 80
LCH 69 77 65 74 / 80 90 80 70
LFT 71 76 67 74 / 60 100 90 80
BPT 68 77 64 76 / 100 90 80 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-
074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-
031>033-042>045-052>055-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
073-074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-
073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ455-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
549 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL ACROSS SOME TERMINALS
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NW LA BUT THESE BREAKS WILL BE TEMPORARY
AS THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. PREVAILED VCSH ACROSS MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINAL WITH TSRA CURRENTLY ONGOING. PREVAILED EITHER
SHRA OR TSRA LATER THIS EVENING...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. OBVIOUSLY
VSBYS WILL BE RESTRICTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MAJOR TO NEAR RECORD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN EAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES HAVE
RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS OF 8 AM CST THIS MORNING
AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO RAIN ALL DAY TODAY. MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD
EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT AND A FEW RIVER AND LAKES ARE ALREADY
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD STAGE LEVELS.
UNFORTUNATELY...MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.
AS OF 2130Z...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CWA IS GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HRRR PLACES
THE AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER WEST. LOOKING AT RADAR LOOPS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOCATED
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 35 AND 45 SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND MORE
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND
GALVESTON ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
WITH A NOTABLE NORTHWARD COMPONENT. UNLESS THERE IS SOME
CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OR
SOME KIND OF MCV DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THESE COMPLEXES...I AM
DOUBTFUL OF THE MORE EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AS
SUPPORTED BY THE ARW AND A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.
THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...I HAVE PLACED THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FROM 00Z-12Z THURSDAY...
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A
DISTINCT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT VALUES...WELL OVER 2 INCHES...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO
10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 2 FEET. THIS WILL ADD TO
AN ALREADY HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING EVENT. WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING FOR SOME TIME AFTER THIS.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT BE OVER.
IF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER STILL EXISTS TONIGHT MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE AND ATLANTA TEXAS...TO MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE CUT OFF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN AS
A KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS
AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE VIGOROUS...SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND MORE
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 64 72 63 73 / 100 90 80 70
MLU 66 72 65 74 / 100 100 80 70
DEQ 56 68 59 64 / 90 80 60 70
TXK 59 68 59 67 / 100 80 70 70
ELD 62 70 62 69 / 100 100 70 70
TYR 61 70 60 72 / 80 70 80 70
GGG 60 71 61 71 / 90 70 80 70
LFK 64 75 61 74 / 100 70 80 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH ERN ND/NW MN. WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM ASSOC SFC
LOW OVER MN HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT HAS ALSO
LIFTED NORTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI. ADDED MOISTURE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER ND/MN MOVES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT. ALSO
COULD BE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SSW FLOW INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
20Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR WRN U.P.
BUT CONTINUED MID-LVL DRYING AND LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER WEST INTO THE EVENING. LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS AREA WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG SO WILL ISSUE A SPS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA.
COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S NW WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS WL STAY CLOSER TO THE MID
40S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE HALF OF FORECAST AREA WED
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SHRA SHORTLY AFT 12Z
OVER THE NW FCST...BUT OTHERWISE BUILDING RIDGE FM NORTH AND ASSOC
INCREASED DRYING AND ANTICYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST LATE IN DAY UNDER LOW-LVL DIFFLUENT NE FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
...WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...
THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE E COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE THE N TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW
ACROSS MEXICO. THE PROGRESSIVE N WAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE E
09-21Z THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE SFC. MIXED
PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN IF ANYTHING DOES FALL. 850MB TEMPS ARE
HOVERING NEAR 0C AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS LOWER MI...A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THE 500MB TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE CUT OFF LOW TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO TX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SFC HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL SINK ACROSS LOWER MI BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST OF NE COAST SATURDAY.
LOW TRACKS ACROSS N ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR N...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W COAST FRIDAY WILL HELP EJECT THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER TX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LONG PROCESS THROUGH WITH
THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE S
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE OVERLY EXCITED GFS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE BACKED BY THE ECMWF AND IDEA
THAT THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER MI. WHILE A SFC
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE PRECIP RETURNING TO UPPER MI AS
EARLY AS 21Z SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THIS SOLUTION FOR WHAT IS NOW DAY 5. CHANCE POPS COULD SHOW UP AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY OVER THE SE. THE S LOW OVER S LAKE MI BY 06Z MONDAY
LOOKS TO EXIT E...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES SWING IT ACROSS LOWER MI
MONDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN THIS DAY 6-7 FCST...AND WILL
GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS
FCST MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR N...ACROSS N ONTARIO/S HUDSON BAY MONDAY-
TUESDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI.
END/KF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU UPPER MI TODAY AND WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AT
KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND TO IFR
EARLY AFTN. AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY EARLY
AFTN...AND AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY AFTN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY KSAW COULD FALL TO LIFR
FOR A TIME. SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A WIND SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W TO NW DIRECTION AT
KIWD/KCMX WILL BRING A RETURN OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
212 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. FLOW MERGES AGAIN OVER ERN
NAMERICA BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A TROF OVER ERN CANADA.
IN THE WRN TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW FOR SO FAR S IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN
MEXICO. DESPITE ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
THUNDER HAS BEEN NOTED W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL
ADVERTISED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS LARGELY FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE SO FAR JUST AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO.
PCPN FCST TODAY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. PERUSAL OF ALL AVBL MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA HAVING
A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SHRA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAP ANALYSIS AND OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MO/ERN IA
LIFTING NNE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. SOME -SHRA HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF
THIS PCPN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BRING MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN FCST. FOR NOW...USED THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO BRING
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS INTO THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC/LOW CHC
CATEGORY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. AFTER BEING LED ASTRAY BY MODEL
INSISTENCE ON FOG/STRATUS/-DZ DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 2
NIGHTS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THESE WX ELEMENTS. PRESENCE OF HIGHER
CLOUD DECKS AND LACK OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO AID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
HAVE PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN THE LACK OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
WITH 40S DWPTS ADVECTING N THRU WI...STILL EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING AS HIGHER DWPTS ENCOUNTER SNOW COVER. SHOULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE W HALF...PERHAPS EXCEEDING
60F IN A FEW SPOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MI WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP
THE E COOLER WITH 40S THE RULE...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES TO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
...WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...
THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE E COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE THE N TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW
ACROSS MEXICO. THE PROGRESSIVE N WAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE E
09-21Z THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE SFC. MIXED
PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN IF ANYTHING DOES FALL. 850MB TEMPS ARE
HOVERING NEAR 0C AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS LOWER MI...A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THE 500MB TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE CUT OFF LOW TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO TX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SFC HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL SINK ACROSS LOWER MI BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST OF NE COAST SATURDAY.
LOW TRACKS ACROSS N ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR N...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W COAST FRIDAY WILL HELP EJECT THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER TX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LONG PROCESS THROUGH WITH
THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE S
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE OVERLY EXCITED GFS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE BACKED BY THE ECMWF AND IDEA
THAT THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER MI. WHILE A SFC
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE PRECIP RETURNING TO UPPER MI AS
EARLY AS 21Z SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THIS SOLUTION FOR WHAT IS NOW DAY 5. CHANCE POPS COULD SHOW UP AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY OVER THE SE. THE S LOW OVER S LAKE MI BY 06Z MONDAY
LOOKS TO EXIT E...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES SWING IT ACROSS LOWER MI
MONDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN THIS DAY 6-7 FCST...AND WILL
GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS
FCST MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR N...ACROSS N ONTARIO/S HUDSON BAY MONDAY-
TUESDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI.
END/KF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU UPPER MI TODAY AND WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AT
KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND TO IFR
EARLY AFTN. AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY EARLY
AFTN...AND AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY AFTN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY KSAW COULD FALL TO LIFR
FOR A TIME. SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A WIND SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W TO NW DIRECTION AT
KIWD/KCMX WILL BRING A RETURN OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
642 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. FLOW MERGES AGAIN OVER ERN
NAMERICA BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A TROF OVER ERN CANADA.
IN THE WRN TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW FOR SO FAR S IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN
MEXICO. DESPITE ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
THUNDER HAS BEEN NOTED W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL
ADVERTISED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS LARGELY FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE SO FAR JUST AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO.
PCPN FCST TODAY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. PERUSAL OF ALL AVBL MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA HAVING
A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SHRA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAP ANALYSIS AND OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MO/ERN IA
LIFTING NNE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. SOME -SHRA HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF
THIS PCPN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BRING MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN FCST. FOR NOW...USED THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO BRING
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS INTO THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC/LOW CHC
CATEGORY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. AFTER BEING LED ASTRAY BY MODEL
INSISTENCE ON FOG/STRATUS/-DZ DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 2
NIGHTS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THESE WX ELEMENTS. PRESENCE OF HIGHER
CLOUD DECKS AND LACK OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO AID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
HAVE PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN THE LACK OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
WITH 40S DWPTS ADVECTING N THRU WI...STILL EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING AS HIGHER DWPTS ENCOUNTER SNOW COVER. SHOULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE W HALF...PERHAPS EXCEEDING
60F IN A FEW SPOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MI WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP
THE E COOLER WITH 40S THE RULE...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES TO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDTIONAL SNOW ADDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE
ECSLIDES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE
AREA. IF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. COLDER AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND VERY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE WORST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AND BOTH THE GFS/EC AGREE ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ONLY MARGINAL LIFT INTO THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS PLACES ONLY CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITAION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU UPPER MI TODAY AND WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AT
KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND TO IFR
EARLY AFTN. AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY EARLY
AFTN...AND AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY AFTN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY KSAW COULD FALL TO LIFR
FOR A TIME. SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A WIND SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W TO NW DIRECTION AT
KIWD/KCMX WILL BRING A RETURN OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. FLOW MERGES AGAIN OVER ERN
NAMERICA BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A TROF OVER ERN CANADA.
IN THE WRN TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW FOR SO FAR S IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN
MEXICO. DESPITE ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
THUNDER HAS BEEN NOTED W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL
ADVERTISED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS LARGELY FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE SO FAR JUST AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO.
PCPN FCST TODAY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. PERUSAL OF ALL AVBL MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA HAVING
A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SHRA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAP ANALYSIS AND OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MO/ERN IA
LIFTING NNE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. SOME -SHRA HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF
THIS PCPN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BRING MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN FCST. FOR NOW...USED THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO BRING
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS INTO THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC/LOW CHC
CATEGORY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. AFTER BEING LED ASTRAY BY MODEL
INSISTENCE ON FOG/STRATUS/-DZ DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 2
NIGHTS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THESE WX ELEMENTS. PRESENCE OF HIGHER
CLOUD DECKS AND LACK OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO AID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
HAVE PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN THE LACK OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
WITH 40S DWPTS ADVECTING N THRU WI...STILL EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING AS HIGHER DWPTS ENCOUNTER SNOW COVER. SHOULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE W HALF...PERHAPS EXCEEDING
60F IN A FEW SPOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MI WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP
THE E COOLER WITH 40S THE RULE...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES TO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDTIONAL SNOW ADDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE
ECSLIDES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE
AREA. IF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. COLDER AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND VERY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE WORST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AND BOTH THE GFS/EC AGREE ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ONLY MARGINAL LIFT INTO THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS PLACES ONLY CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITAION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
A MOIST S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW AND KCMX WILL FAVOR IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT
KIWD...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPETED TO FALL BLO MVFR TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. HOWEVER...THUNDER PROB IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED HEATING/MIXING AND VEERING WINDS TO SSW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND HELP PUSH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT INCREASING DEW POINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE ALSO
EXPECT SOME -DZ TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-
SE FLOW. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ESPECIALLY NOTED ON 300K
SFC...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL EVEN KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING TO 8C OR GREATER OVER CENTRAL MN. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WEST HALF AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATING FROM LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER EAST HALF...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDTIONAL SNOW ADDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE
ECSLIDES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE
AREA. IF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. COLDER AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND VERY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE WORST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AND BOTH THE GFS/EC AGREE ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ONLY MARGINAL LIFT INTO THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS PLACES ONLY CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITAION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
A MOIST S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW AND KCMX WILL FAVOR IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT
KIWD...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPETED TO FALL BLO MVFR TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. HOWEVER...THUNDER PROB IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED HEATING/MIXING AND VEERING WINDS TO SSW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1232 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND HELP PUSH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT INCREASING DEW POINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE ALSO
EXPECT SOME -DZ TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-
SE FLOW. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ESPECIALLY NOTED ON 300K
SFC...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL EVEN KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING TO 8C OR GREATER OVER CENTRAL MN. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WEST HALF AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATING FROM LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER EAST HALF...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
A MOIST S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW AND KCMX WILL FAVOR IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT
KIWD...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPETED TO FALL BLO MVFR TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. HOWEVER...THUNDER PROB IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED HEATING/MIXING AND VEERING WINDS TO SSW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT LATE WED/THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1103 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA IS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AND
HAS OVERTAKEN MILES CITY AND BAKER. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL LINGER
OVER MUCH OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE UPDATED
TO RAISE SKY COVER FURTHER WEST AT SUCH PLACES AS MILES CITY.
COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG IN OUR EAST WHERE SFC DEW PTS ARE MUCH
HIGHER. ALSO...IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARER W/ LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS ALREADY. HAVE
ADJUSTED FORECAST LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT LOCATIONS LIKE
LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON. THE CITY OF BILLINGS SHOULD FALL TO THE
MID 20S TONIGHT. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. BEST CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT WHILE WE HAVE A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES. MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AND GRAUPEL...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THE CRAZY AND
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MTNS SHOULD PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS OVER OUR REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY AND WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RIDGING TAKES OVER AGAIN. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GAP FLOW PATTERN FOR THE LIVINGSTON
AND SW FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. I RAISED WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS THU-SUN AS
THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW. FOR MON...HAVE CHANCE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL AND
THEN EASTERN ZONES AS THE ECMWF FINALLY BRINGS THE TROUGH
EASTWARD. THE GFS DOES THE SAME BUT IS A BIT SLOWER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE LIVINGSTON-NYE CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHER GAP FLOW
WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE THU AND SAT-SUN. RMS/BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY W TONIGHT INTO TUE. E OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY...EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT THE KMLS AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E INTO THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLVM. THE
FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH KBIL AROUND 06Z WED. THE
CRAZY...BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/056 031/054 034/068 041/067 041/066 037/060 037/060
00/U 22/W 01/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 12/W
LVM 022/050 027/050 034/061 040/062 039/059 037/055 034/054
02/T 33/W 12/W 12/W 22/W 12/W 23/W
HDN 027/058 028/057 029/068 035/069 036/068 032/064 031/062
00/B 22/W 01/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 12/W
MLS 031/054 029/057 030/068 036/070 039/069 034/062 032/061
00/B 11/B 01/B 01/B 11/B 11/U 11/B
4BQ 030/054 026/055 028/067 034/070 038/069 033/063 032/062
00/B 01/B 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/U 11/B
BHK 030/049 025/055 027/065 033/068 034/068 030/060 030/059
11/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 11/B
SHR 027/053 027/051 026/065 033/070 035/066 031/062 031/060
00/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
605 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST. TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION...AND
FOG. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL LIFT IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS EVIDENCED BY A CU FIELD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE PANHANDLE AS TOLD BY INVADING ALTOCU/CIRRUS.
KEPT SCHC/ISO MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED LIFT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING CONTINUED
STEEP LAPSE RATES. RAP AND NAM SOUNDING PROFILES RESEMBLE AN
INVERTED V...SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BUT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS
CAPE IS MARGINAL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 300J/KG...AND LIFTED INDEX
IS NEAR 0C.
TONIGHT...FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IMPROVES SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 295K. CONTINUED SCHC RA- ALONG/EAST FROM
KIML TO KBBW THROUGH 12Z. DESPITE MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...TEMP
PROFILES SHOW A LARGE INVERSION AND MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA TEMPS NEAR 7C. ALSO...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS SFC
TEMPS APPROACH 32F...LIMITING THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIP.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG DUE TO PART
PERSISTENCE AND PART FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL MOISTURE AND
WIND FLOW ARE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...WHERE FOG DEVELOPED FROM
KVTN TO KONL AND NORTH. ALSO...NAM AND RAP SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
WHILE SREF HINTS AT SOME NEAR KONL. DROPPED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE RESUMES AND MID LEVELS REALLY DRY OUT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. 850HPA FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST WITH
TEMPS TOPPING 10C IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS AND 8C
NORTH CENTRAL. HUGGED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH
GENERALLY INCREASED HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. UPPED AN ADDITIONAL
DEGREE FARTHER WEST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AND WARMER AT 850HPA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MODELS CONTINUE WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WILL USE A BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH
A RISE TO NEAR 15C THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUAL COOL DOWN FROM
MONDAY BUT NOT AS DRASTIC AS THE LAST TWO DAYS. CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MEXICO SYSTEM SHEARING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING CUT
OFF LOW TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IN ITS WAKE. THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR STRONGER WAVE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK. DEPTH OF TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BACK OFF. WILL TREND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWNWARD. IN THE MID TERM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING ON
THE BACKSIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. TIMING IN GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT A DAYS
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE BEGUN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON
TUESDAY AND THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
HIGH BASED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE/LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST IN A
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A CHANCE FOR IMPACT TO KVTN
TERMINAL AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW...AND MONITOR FOR
AMENDMENTS. ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD VFR IN THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HEIGHTENED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. NEAR CRITICAL
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...UNDER 20 PERCENT...ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. WIND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY...BUT FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO WORK EAST. SOUTHERLY 850HPA WINDS APPROACH
30 KTS...AND A LOT OF THAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSPORTED TO THE
SURFACE AS A DEEP MIXED LAYER TAKES HOLD. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE FORECAST ISSUANCES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG WAVE TO THE EAST
OVER EAST TEXAS AS SEEN IN WV AND RADAR RETURNS. WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES DUE TO STUBBORN STRATUS TODAY AND WAA AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOMORROW.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... SLOW TO ERODE STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED MAX TEMPS
TODAY. SREF MORE OPTIMISTIC IN BREAKING UP THE STRATUS BY 00Z WHILE
THE NAM AND RAP CLEAR IT OUT TONIGHT. WITH 850HPA FLOW TURNING
WESTERLY IN THE PANHANDLE... THINKING CLEARING WILL OCCUR SOONER
THERE AND SLOWLY WORK EAST. DEPENDING HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS ON
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB... MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO COOL. FARTHER
SOUTH... DENSE CIRRUS FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPS FROM FRONTIER TO WHEELER COUNTIES IN CASE
LOWS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. ELSEWHERE... WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING... TRENDED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO... BUT THEY ARE STILL
ABOVE GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY... THE SFC/850HPA TROUGH MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND MAIN 500HPA WAVE ARRIVING LATER. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT 850HPA WILL AID IN WAA... INCREASING TEMPS FROM ABOUT 5C AT
12Z TO NEAR 10C AT 00Z. TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD MAV AND ECM
GUIDANCE... WHICH GENERALLY INCREASED PREVIOUS FCST 1-2 DEGREES. NAM
AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 750HPA AREA WIDE.
SOUNDINGS ALSO PICK UP A QUASI INVERTED V SIGNAL AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FGEN FORCING INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. APPRECIABLE
LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO EXISTS WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. CONTINUED SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WEST OF HWY 83 AFTER 20Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR STRONG LIFT AND MARGINAL CAPE. HOWEVER... WITH DEEP DRY
LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS... STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
HIGH BASED. ALSO... 0-6KM SHEAR IS VERY HIGH... WHICH MAY RESULT IN
ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP FALLING APART QUICKLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...PHASING
WITH UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME INSTABILITY AND
CAPE WITH 7K FT CEILINGS AND LIFT FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEAK LLJ INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
PUSHES EAST AND THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 11C TO 12C. 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW INITIATES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW
RHS AND WINDS MAY BE CAUSE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TROUGH
BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AS UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES
UNDER THE RIDGE. PACIFIC AIR AND FAIRLY STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY FROM KAIA TO
KTIF TO KBBW AND POINTS NORTH... WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AROUND SUNSET AND
TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS OR STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN
FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
DID A MINOR UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. RECENT RUNS
OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF PCPN LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RECENT
RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
DRY WARM SECTOR IS FIRMLY PLANTED OVER NEB...BRINGING RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...AND PEAKING AT 110M OVER
WESTERN CO. STOUT 850MB WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE
50KT LOW-LEVEL JET HAD BROUGHT 8C+ DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO...AND 10C+ TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. 850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SD/ND/MT COMMON BORDER. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OF 20C+ EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US
NORTHWARD INTO NEB/SD/MN. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN
WESTERN NEB...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW IN NORTHEAST
CO/NEB PANHANDLE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLIP
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD
JUST A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS JUST SKIRT THE
AREA WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT DO THINK CHANCES ARE
PRETTY LOW OVERALL. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE MO VALLEY
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT. WITH SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS MILD ON TUESDAY THAN
RECENT DAYS...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
GFS CAME IN AS A FAST AND NORTHWARD OUTLIER FOR EJECTING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW INTO THE CENTRAL US ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLIER AND FARTHER NORTH
THAN ITS EARLIER RUNS OR THE ECMWF/NAM. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE ISSUE OF THE GFS AND ITS HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH BLENDS GIVING TOO MUCH WEIGHT
TO THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION. HAVE INCREASES POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS OR THE
RESULTING BLENDS...WITH MENTION STILL LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE EJECTING LOW COULD
CLIP THE CWA...AND HAVE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS.
DESPITE LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN (OR AT LEAST
CLOUDS)...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO POP UP WEST OF SEWARD WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER...THE TREND FOR SPOTTY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO SHIFT EAST. HRRRX
SHOWING LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST OF KOFK AFTER A FEW HOURS AND
LINGER AT KLNK AND KOMA THROUGH 10-13Z. VFR CIGS FL050 SHOULD
AFFECT KOFK TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE ACROSS KANSAS
TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD...HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO HIGHER CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO
20KTS GUSTS 20 TO 30KTS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST TUESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
AT H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEBRASKA TONIGHT. RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DUE TO
RH BELOW 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
THIS EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. AS OF
21Z...LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSNY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SLOWLY
BRING SATURATION BELOW 850HPA THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. AT 00Z...HRRR AND RAP MODELS PLACE SFC LOW OVER KTIF
WITH EXPANDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST AND CONTINUED DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM AND RAP FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH CONVECTIVE INDICES...MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG...LIFTED
INDEX AS LOW AS -3C...AND UP TO 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR FROM KSNY TO
KAIA TO KVTN. CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT THREAT OF SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER BOYD CO BY 06Z ACCORDING TO NAM
AND HRR. 850HPA CAA IS STRONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING NEARLY 8C OVER
NORTHWEST NEB FROM 00-06Z. HOWEVER...850HPA TEMPS REMAIN AOA 0C
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AT
KAIA AND MERRIMAN WHILE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING IN
LOWEST 100HPA. RAP ALSO WEAKENS LIFT AS TEMPS COOL TO THE POINT
WHERE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH
CONFIDENCE RELATIVELY LOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE
PANHANDLE...OR AT LEAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION TO
OCCUR...LEFT MAIN PTYPE AS RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61.
HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEAR KAIA AND PINE RIDGE SO
LEFT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW...IN CASE STRONG LOW LIFT
CONTINUES AFTER 06Z ALLOWING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND DYNAMIC COOLING.
TUESDAY...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG SD
BORDER WITH SLOWLY DRYING AIR IN LOWEST 50HPA. LEFT SCHC RAIN
NORTH OF U.S. HWY 20 THROUGH 18Z. FARTHER SOUTH...SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER AND EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING. 850HPA TEMPS
ARE MODEST AT 0-5C WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ALIGNED WELL WITH
MONDAY 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE...RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND HAVE SOME TIMING AND
TEMPERATURE ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEANS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON
STEADY RISE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...5C TO 15C. ECMWF MORE
PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE THURSDAY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLES
COMING IN WITH 1 TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LOW 60S ON THURSDAY THROUGH UPPER 60S SUNDAY SEEM REASONABLE AS
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PACIFIC AIR. STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
SLOWED BY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BUT LOOKING
AT TIME HEIGHTS DRY LOWER LEVELS HIGH BASED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH STRONG CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POSSIBILITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS SWINGING
ACROSS THE REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GENERALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF KLBF...HOWEVER BRIEF IMPACT FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS WITH THE
SHOWERS. BY MORNING CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. WINDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MAR 7 2016
CRITICAL RH VALUES AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. RED FLAG WARNING ON TRACK FOR FIRE ZONES 210 AND
219. DECENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MAX RH VALUES AOA 80
PERCENT.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
TWEAKED POPS DOWN AND TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL
TRENDS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...AND THOUGH IT WILL FILL IN...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME TO
RAISE TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR IS NOT
VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUSPECT WE MAY
END UP A FEW INCHES SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE SANGRES.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...BUT WILL NUDGE AMOUNTS DOWN A
BIT. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1111 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
NEW MEXICO...YET SOME PRECIPITATION WILL STILL DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES IN. THROUGH 09/0400UTC...THE
FOCUS FOR SHRASN/TSRA WILL BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY
FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
STATE. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35KT MAY ACCOMPANY SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT OVER PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET
MSL WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS WHERE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO
WILL DRAW A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
A SPRING-LIKE MIX OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE BIG WINNER SHOULD BE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON AN EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NOW LOOKS LIKE A
LESS GUSTY BUT STILL SUBSIDENT NE WIND WILL FLOW INTO THE VALLEY.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT THAT COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY TO FORECAST. CURRENT GRIDS TRY TO REFLECT THIS SHADOW.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE SANGRES WITH THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE. LOW END ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE GILA AREA. THE NAM IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT...BUT IT IS QUITE BULLISH ON QPF THERE TODAY. IF
NEEDED...THE DAY SHIFT MAY ISSUE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT DOWN THERE.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SIGNIFICANT BUT VERY LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO NM FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND AND DRY AIR SOUTHEAST OF THERE FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
AFTER A COLDER DAY TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND
UPWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF DIP IN READINGS WITH
SATURDAYS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FOLLOWED WITH MORE WARMING SUNDAY AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT MONDAY.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE DAY TODAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING AND
DRYING. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL ZONES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT SOME COOLING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH
POSSIBLY A RETURN TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO FAVOR THE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS. VENTILATION TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL
ZONE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
WILL BE CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MOIST NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LINGERING WETTING RAIN
THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING AND DRYING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS ALL ZONES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. VENTILATION WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH POOR RATES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND POOR
TO FAIR VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY.
BY EARLY SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND TIMING.
AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCES OF SOME WETTING RAIN LOOK TO FAVOR
WESTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS ALSO AGREE ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AGAIN WITH THE WESTERN ZONES FAVORED FOR
WETTING RAIN WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EAST.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ512>515.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
102 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MILD AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY RETURNING COOLER AIR AND SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMP THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE HAS
MADE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA, ROUGHLY
FROM PENN YAN SOUTH THROUGH ELMIRA AND INTO SCRANTON. NEAR THESE
AREAS HIGHS NEAR 70 WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LIKELY HANG ON
TOUGH FOR MANY AREAS. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 60S
WHERE THE CLOUDS HOLD ON TOUGH (SYRACUSE, ROME) TO WELL INTO THE
60S WITH INCREASING SUN NEAR BINGHAMTON. ALL AND ALL A NICE MARCH
DAY! PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...
1025 AM UPDATE...
WITH A CLEARING TREND OVER WESTERN NY AND PA AND THE LATEST HRRR
AND RUC HOURLY TEMPS SHOWING LOTS OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, I
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON, SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 65-70 RANGE. FROM BINGHAMTON NORTH AND EAST,
TEMPS MAINLY HOLD IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. LATE DAY
SUNSHINE MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT, BUT THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU
LIVE THIS IS LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDG STAYS PUT INTO THU KEEPING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE. RDG BLDS A
BIT LTR TODAY INTO WED SO MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD A BIT...ESP
OVER THE NRN ZONES AS THE OLD SFC BNDRY RETREATS TO THE NORTH. WV
PASSES THRU LTR WED INTO THU AND WILL BRING A FEW SHWRS TO THE NRN
ZONES AND DEPRESSING THE NRN BNDY BACK TO THE SOUTH. RDG POPS BACK
INTO PLACE AHD OF THE STRONGER WV AND COLD FNT FOR FRI.
FNT PASSES EARLY FRI IN AN ANAFNT CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHWRS TO LINGER FRI IN THE COOLER AIR BHD THE PASSAGE. CAA IS WEAK
HWVR SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE SHRT TERM
PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MILD AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOSTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
A TROF IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U. S. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND AND WPC GUIDANCE. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT MAYBE
ONEIDA COUNTY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS
OFF THE EAST COAST. SLOW INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY TO
MONDAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH DEEP TROF IN THE PLAINS SO LOTS OF
MOISTURE GETTING FUNNELED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. INITIAL
SFC LOW GETS HERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BAND OF BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AROUND 5-8 KFT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SHOWERS
AT SYR AND RME... OTHERWISE VFR.
WED NGT TO THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS NY
TERMINALS WED NIGHT THEN ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AS FRONT HANGS IN
VICINITY...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAIN PLACEMENT.
FRI TO SAT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH WITH
ALTERNATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MILD AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY RETURNING COOLER AIR AND SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...
WITH A CLEARING TREND OVER WESTERN NY AND PA AND THE LATEST HRRR
AND RUC HOURLY TEMPS SHOWING LOTS OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, I
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON, SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 65-70 RANGE. FROM BINGHAMTON NORTH AND EAST,
TEMPS MAINLY HOLD IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. LATE DAY
SUNSHINE MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT, BUT THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU
LIVE THIS IS LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDG STAYS PUT INTO THU KEEPING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE. RDG BLDS A
BIT LTR TODAY INTO WED SO MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD A BIT...ESP
OVER THE NRN ZONES AS THE OLD SFC BNDRY RETREATS TO THE NORTH. WV
PASSES THRU LTR WED INTO THU AND WILL BRING A FEW SHWRS TO THE NRN
ZONES AND DEPRESSING THE NRN BNDY BACK TO THE SOUTH. RDG POPS BACK
INTO PLACE AHD OF THE STRONGER WV AND COLD FNT FOR FRI.
FNT PASSES EARLY FRI IN AN ANAFNT CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHWRS TO LINGER FRI IN THE COOLER AIR BHD THE PASSAGE. CAA IS WEAK
HWVR SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE SHRT TERM
PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MILD AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOSTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
A TROF IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U. S. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND AND WPC GUIDANCE. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT MAYBE
ONEIDA COUNTY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS
OFF THE EAST COAST. SLOW INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY TO
MONDAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH DEEP TROF IN THE PLAINS SO LOTS OF
MOISTURE GETTING FUNNELED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. INITIAL
SFC LOW GETS HERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BAND OF BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AROUND 5-8 KFT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SHOWERS
AT SYR AND RME... OTHERWISE VFR.
WED NGT TO THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS NY
TERMINALS WED NIGHT THEN ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AS FRONT HANGS IN
VICINITY...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAIN PLACEMENT.
FRI TO SAT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH WITH
ALTERNATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MILD AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY RETURNING COOLER AIR AND SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...
WITH A CLEARING TREND OVER WESTERN NY AND PA AND THE LATEST HRRR
AND RUC HOURLY TEMPS SHOWING LOTS OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, I
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON, SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 65-70 RANGE. FROM BINGHAMTON NORTH AND EAST,
TEMPS MAINLY HOLD IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. LATE DAY
SUNSHINE MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT, BUT THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU
LIVE THIS IS LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDG STAYS PUT INTO THU KEEPING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE. RDG BLDS A
BIT LTR TODAY INTO WED SO MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD A BIT...ESP
OVER THE NRN ZONES AS THE OLD SFC BNDRY RETREATS TO THE NORTH. WV
PASSES THRU LTR WED INTO THU AND WILL BRING A FEW SHWRS TO THE NRN
ZONES AND DEPRESSING THE NRN BNDY BACK TO THE SOUTH. RDG POPS BACK
INTO PLACE AHD OF THE STRONGER WV AND COLD FNT FOR FRI.
FNT PASSES EARLY FRI IN AN ANAFNT CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHWRS TO LINGER FRI IN THE COOLER AIR BHD THE PASSAGE. CAA IS WEAK
HWVR SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE SHRT TERM
PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MILD AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOSTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
A TROF IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U. S. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND AND WPC GUIDANCE. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT MAYBE
ONEIDA COUNTY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS
OFF THE EAST COAST. SLOW INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY TO
MONDAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH DEEP TROF IN THE PLAINS SO LOTS OF
MOISTURE GETTING FUNNELED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. INITIAL
SFC LOW GETS HERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WED. A WEAK FRONT STRADDLING
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. THUS WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS...THEY SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN VFR AS DEPICTED BY NAM AND RAP/RUC MODELS...AS WELL
AS BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WE HAVE VERY LITTLE
FAITH IN THE WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS SUGGESTED BY GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS STRUGGLED THE PAST DAY OR TWO. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING S OR SW 3-6 KTS EXCEPT FOR
KSYR-KRME WILL BE OUT OF THE ESE.
.OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR...EXCEPT SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS
FOR KSYR-KRME LATE IN THE DAY.
WED NGT TO THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS NY
TERMINALS WED NIGHT THEN ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AS FRONT HANGS IN
VICINITY...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAIN PLACEMENT.
FRI TO SAT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH WITH
ALTERNATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1234 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS
MOVING OVERHEAD. WITH A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF 20 DEGREES
BETWEEN THE LAND AND WATER THIS AFTER A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR 10M WINDS SHOW THE SEABREEZE MOVING
INLAND 15 TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON AND AROUND 5 MILES
INLAND NORTH OF WILMINGTON.
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AND WITH VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWS A PERSISTENT WARM SOUTHERLY TO PREVAIL. A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 70S
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S. THE EXCEPTION TO THE FORECAST MAXIMUMS WILL BE FOUND AT THE
BEACHES...WHERE COOL SHELF WATERS COMBINED WITH AN ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE WILL CAP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT TIMES...BUT
SUNSHINE WILL OTHERWISE BE PLENTIFUL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TO FOG AS A POTENTIAL ISSUE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AS DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW
RIDES UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRI SHOULD BE
THE LAST DRY DAY ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBILITY OF LOW
STRATUS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ON FRI. EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH CLOSE TO 80ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRY TO DROP DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT WHILE GFS KEEPS FRONT WELL
NORTH OVER VA. THIS MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE SLIPS
FARTHER EAST. WILL LOSE THE CAP OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
SATURDAY AND EXPECT BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LEAD TO INCREASED
CHC OF SHWRS. GFS SHOWS BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SAT EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AROUND BY SAT EVE. SUNDAY SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART
IN SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE BUT MAIN H5 TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND AND THEREFORE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GREATER CHC FOR SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF AND COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL PRODUCE BETTER ONSHORE
FLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCP
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SUCH WARM TEMPS EXPECT A DECENT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
PUSHING COOLER OCEAN AIR INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE RIDGING
ALOFT LEADS TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO
DISSIPATE ANY FOG ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM...CURRENTLY WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE COAST. HERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 1.5 TO 2 FOOT RANGE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 2 FEET.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT. WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT...WHICH COULD BRING SEAS UP ANOTHER
FOOT OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A S-SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRI LESS THAN 15
KTS. THE HIGH WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE AS LOW TRACKS NORTH
FROM THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BACK WINDS
TO A MORE S-SE ON SHORE FLOW SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING UP
AROUND 15 KTS. THEREFORE EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS FROM 3 FT
FRI UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT AFTN. SEAS MAY JUST ECLIPSE SCA
THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN AS WINDS INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS THEY VEER FROM S-SE TO S-SW. SHOULD ALSO SEE BACKING AND
SPIKE IN WINDS NEAR SHORE EACH AFTN DUE TO SEA BREEZE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
109 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED A MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 20Z.
ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE JRV BASED ON LATEST RADAR LOOP. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES MANY AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK
HOWEVER...ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST ATTIM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR ABERDEEN. THIS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. BAND OF SHOWERS OVER EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES APPEARS
TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY ATTIM WHILE A NEW AREA IS DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHERN DICKEY COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN THE WEST.
WINDS CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
MVFR-IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP SKY COVER WEST AND SLOWED THE DETERIORATION OF CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WE`LL SEE IF THIS IS ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN A REGION OF
LARGE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLOUDY, THE FOG
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS A 10 TO 20 MPH
NORTHWEST WIND MIXES THE FOG OUT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
MAINLY UPDATES TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CENTERED AROUND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS COVERING THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH TIME. LATEST MSAS/MESOSCALE SURFACE
ASSIMILATION...PLACES THE ATTENDANT 994MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND MITCHELL AIRPORT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE CONTINUES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH TO OAKES. AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS...CURRENT THINKING IS
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING TREND BY 09Z-10Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IF IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT REALIZED.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE OR MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
18Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST/LIKELY
POPS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CLOSEST TO
THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW. THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS BEING DOMINATED BY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS. THE
HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS BEEN DOING WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND...BEGINNING AT 15Z WEST AND SHIFTING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DICKEY TO
ASHLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE NUDGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL FALL UNDER A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MILD AND DRY. THIS PERIOD
HAS A PRONOUNCED GULF OF ALASKA LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THIS RESEMBLES A WEAK REX
BLOCK FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVING MILD TEMPERATURES OF
NEARLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOCUS WINDS AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. KDIK
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 20 UTC WITH KISN...KMOT AND KBIS
FROM 21-23 UTC. KJMS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR CLOUDS AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE MVFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KJMS...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1020 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR ABERDEEN. THIS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. BAND OF SHOWERS OVER EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES APPEARS
TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY ATTIM WHILE A NEW AREA IS DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHERN DICKEY COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN THE WEST.
WINDS CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
MVFR-IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP SKY COVER WEST AND SLOWED THE DETERIORATION OF CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WE`LL SEE IF THIS IS ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN A REGION OF
LARGE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLOUDY, THE FOG
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS A 10 TO 20 MPH
NORTHWEST WIND MIXES THE FOG OUT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
MAINLY UPDATES TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CENTERED AROUND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS COVERING THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH TIME. LATEST MSAS/MESOSCALE SURFACE
ASSIMILATION...PLACES THE ATTENDANT 994MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND MITCHELL AIRPORT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE CONTINUES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH TO OAKES. AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS...CURRENT THINKING IS
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING TREND BY 09Z-10Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IF IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT REALIZED.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE OR MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
18Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST/LIKELY
POPS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CLOSEST TO
THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW. THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS BEING DOMINATED BY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS. THE
HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS BEEN DOING WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND...BEGINNING AT 15Z WEST AND SHIFTING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DICKEY TO
ASHLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE NUDGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL FALL UNDER A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MILD AND DRY. THIS PERIOD
HAS A PRONOUNCED GULF OF ALASKA LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THIS RESEMBLES A WEAK REX
BLOCK FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVING MILD TEMPERATURES OF
NEARLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOCUS WINDS AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ACROSS AERODROMES THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AROUND MIDDAY KISN AND KDIK...MID
AFTERNOON KBIS AND KMOT...AND LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AT
KJMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN A REGION OF
LARGE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLOUDY, THE FOG
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS A 10 TO 20 MPH
NORTHWEST WIND MIXES THE FOG OUT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
MAINLY UPDATES TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CENTERED AROUND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS COVERING THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH TIME. LATEST MSAS/MESOSCALE SURFACE
ASSIMILATION...PLACES THE ATTENDANT 994MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND MITCHELL AIRPORT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE CONTINUES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH TO OAKES. AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS...CURRENT THINKING IS
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING TREND BY 09Z-10Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IF IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT REALIZED.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE OR MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
18Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST/LIKELY
POPS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CLOSEST TO
THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW. THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS BEING DOMINATED BY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS. THE
HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS BEEN DOING WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND...BEGINNING AT 15Z WEST AND SHIFTING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DICKEY TO
ASHLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE NUDGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL FALL UNDER A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MILD AND DRY. THIS PERIOD
HAS A PRONOUNCED GULF OF ALASKA LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THIS RESEMBLES A WEAK REX
BLOCK FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVING MILD TEMPERATURES OF
NEARLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOCUS WINDS AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. EXPECT
KISN/KDIK TO REACH VFR STATUS BY 16Z...KMOT AT 17Z...KBIS AT 19Z.
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KJMS UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR EXPECTED CIGS TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
KJMS MAY BEGIN TO SEE SCT/BKN CLOUDS LESS THAN 1000FT TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
319 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CENTERED AROUND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS COVERING THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH TIME. LATEST MSAS/MESOSCALE SURFACE
ASSIMILATION...PLACES THE ATTENDANT 994MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND MITCHELL AIRPORT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE CONTINUES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH TO OAKES. AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS...CURRENT THINKING IS
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING TREND BY 09Z-10Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IF IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT REALIZED.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE OR MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
18Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST/LIKELY
POPS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CLOSEST TO
THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW. THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS BEING DOMINATED BY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS. THE
HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS BEEN DOING WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND...BEGINNING AT 15Z WEST AND SHIFTING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DICKEY TO
ASHLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE NUDGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL FALL UNDER A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MILD AND DRY. THIS PERIOD
HAS A PRONOUNCED GULF OF ALASKA LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THIS RESEMBLES A WEAK REX
BLOCK FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVING MILD TEMPERATURES OF
NEARLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOCUS WINDS AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL 18Z-20Z TUESDAY...EXCEPT AT KJMS WHERE THEY
WILL LINGER UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG AND VLIFR VSBYS AT
KJMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 11Z TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25KT. IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND
00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
PRECIP REMAINS OVER WESTERN SD AND EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST LATER TONIGHT. FOG WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
ADDED AREA OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DRY SLOT OVER EASTERN SD AND NE AND WAS
MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED POPS AND
QPF DOWN FOR TONIGHT AND UP A LITTLE FOR TUE MORNING. FOG LOOP
INDICATED LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUD TREND IS FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE/FILL IN IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY. WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A TAD FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED OPEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST WY/NE PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN SASK AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL MAN TUE. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE OVER ONTARIO LATE
TUE.
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. CHANGED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS CURVES FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CENTER OF THE SFC
LOW IS STILL DOWN OVER NEBRASKA...BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA
THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND 50S ARE NOT THAT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE MODELS
ALL BRING THE WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS BY 06Z...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO...SO
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING THE MAIN ONE AND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
THROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EAST
TOMORROW EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC LOW TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW OUR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 30S AND
40S AND IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GO THROUGH
UNTIL LATE COULD STILL REACH THE 50S. HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS QUIET FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN...RISING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S WEDNESDAY TO THE
40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NW MN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA.
GFS/ECMWF KEEP QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH SFC TEMPS. AT
THIS POINT...HIGHS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S APPEARS LIKELY...WHILE MORE 60S ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AS THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND WITH LOW CIGS AND AND IN
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LOW VISIBILITIES. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE
OVER NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. FOG LOOP INDICATED
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR
AREA IN THE SOUTH MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT. ALSO MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS FROM TEXAS NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST APART FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS THROUGH 12Z AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. EARLIER
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVE
DISSIPATED. THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE IS VERY LOW WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM INDICATE A SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...QUANTIFIED BY MUCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.
BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
WILL HAVE AVIATION ISSUES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. STRATUS HAS
ENVELOPED AREA EAST OF THE AREA FROM BETWEEN KSPS AND KF05 TO KRCE
AND KBKN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS IN THE WEST. STRATUS WILL PERSIST
AND LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCES OF AFFECTING MANY OF
THE TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CHANCES NORTHWEST /ESPECIALLY KGAG AND
KWWR/ ARE LOWER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ARDMORE TO
JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE, JET MAX, AND SUBTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST, THE DRYLINE HAS NOW NUDGED ITS
WAY INTO NW OK AND IS BULGING INTO EXTREME SW OK AND WESTERN N TX.
CU ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT WHERE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED CIN PRESENT
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY NEAR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BULGE AND NORTHWEST OK, AS HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER E CO. ALL SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY WANE AS THEY MOVE NE INTO STABLE
AIRMASS.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, A MID TO UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX BEFORE 12Z, AND THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO AID IN LIFT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
UP/NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR THROUGH TOMORROW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES (~8 C/KM) ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW OVER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS, IN ADDITION TO MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT. THE
PREVIOUS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS, AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES ACROSS SW OK/W N TX FROM AROUND
06-09Z WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. AFTER WHICH, A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF OUR FA AND INTO TSA`S SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THIS COMPLEX,
BUT IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF ARE PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL RIGHT NOW AND MATCH WELL WITH
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL ASCENT TONIGHT SO THE FORECAST WAS WEIGHED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THEIR TRENDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF THE I44
CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING WED MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER SIGNFICANT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE RED RIVER WITHIN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONG MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL,
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WED, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHCS IMPACTING ZONES SOUTH OF I40 AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 68 54 66 / 40 90 50 70
HOBART OK 58 70 49 65 / 60 80 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 75 54 68 / 80 90 60 40
GAGE OK 50 66 42 63 / 20 30 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 60 66 48 65 / 30 80 40 70
DURANT OK 61 73 59 67 / 100 80 80 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-
041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/26/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
930 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
BRING A STRING OF DRY...AND INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAKENING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASED RIDGING MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE YET ANOTHER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY FOR EARLY MARCH. USING THE LATEST TRENDS
AND HRRR HOURLY TEMPS...I NUDGED MOST HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HOW MODELS HAVE LAGGED ON THESE WARM WELL
MIXED DAYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THIS WILL EASILY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS WELL UP IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LOW TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONAL SPILL SE OVER THE
BIG UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN US.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DEEP
TROF/UPPER LOW IN THE SRN STREAM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY TO DIG SEWD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO THEN SOUTHERN TEXAS BY
MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS /BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO CLOSE
TO RECORDS...WHICH ARE IN THE U70S TO L80S AT KMDT AND KIPT ON
THOSE RESPECTIVE DAYS/.
BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS
12C BY MIDWEEK PER 00Z ECENS....THIS WILL PUMP UP GEFS MEAN 500
MB HEIGHTS TO AROUND 5760M AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO THE
LOWER 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA...AND 65 TO 70 IN MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NRN PENN. MEAN 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MAX FOR
KMDT WED IS 72F WITH THE MAX ENSEMBLE HIGH TEMP OF 75F.
AFTERWARD...MODELS /SPECIFICALLY THE EC AND GEFS/ BEGIN TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHARP UPPER AXIS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z EC PLACES THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE CHICAGO AREA...WHILE
THE 00Z GEFS HAS THE SAME RIDGE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST...FROM THE MID ATL COAST TO THE WRN PENN AND THE LOWER
GLAKES.
BIG IMPLICATIONS RESULT FROM THIS IN THE FORM OF A MILDER AND
WETTER GEFS SCENARIO...AND A COOLER AND DRIER PERIOD VIA THE EC
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
EC PUSHES A FAIRLY STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY /STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES TO THE MISS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/ MAY SLIDE SE AND THROUGH / OR AT LEAST INTO/
PA DURING THE LATE THURSDAY - FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS /THAT SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NRN AND WRN PENN/.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
CIGS/VIS/WX: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WINDS: 15-25KT GUSTS FROM 230-260 BTWN 15-22Z. MARGINAL LLWS
POSSIBLE NW 1/2 AIRSPACE AFTER 09/06Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY
WED...CHANCE OF P.M. RAIN SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS-VIS NW AIRSPACE.
THU...RAIN SHOWERS LKLY WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS-VIS PSBL NW AIRSPACE.
FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND OCNL MVFR CIG-VIS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
*DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE OF 71F TIED AT WILLIAMSPORT
YESTERDAY MARCH 7, 2016. PREVIOUS RECORD MAX WAS 1987.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 8-10, 2016 FOR SELECT
SITES:
HARRISBURG: 84 IN 2000, 78 IN 2000, 72 IN 2006
WILLIAMSPORT: 81 IN 2000, 79 IN 2000, 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 77 IN 2000, 71 IN 2000, 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 74 IN 2000, 70 IN 2000, 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 78 IN 2000, 74 IN 2000, 72 IN 1986
EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A GOOD 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MARCH 2012 SAW READINGS
WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S BY THE THIRD WEEK OF THE MONTH.
HOWEVER...APRIL 2012 TURNED COLD...WHICH WAS NOT A BENEFIT TO
AGRICULTURE THAT SPRING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
945 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH NEARLY HALF OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY UNDER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. RAINFALL RATES HAVE EXCEEDED
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS APPROACHING 8
INCHES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE ALL THE WAY INTO EAST
TEXAS. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT BREAK IN INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL
IN DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS...BUT ANOTHER HEAVIER ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPENDED...OR REPLACED WITH AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS JUST
THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY
MINOR BREAKS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
CURRENTLY...HEAVY RAIN EVENT WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS SETUP IS PUMPING
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM
EAST TEXAS NORTHEAST THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH. A STEADY STREAM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN COVERS MUCH OF THE DELTA ATTM WITH FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT AS A STREAM OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE
REGION. PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES OR MORE ADVECT INTO THE MID-SOUTH
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THIS CONFIRMED WELL BY THE LATEST HRRR DATA. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT SEEMS GOOD ATTM. THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND START TO PUSH IT EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH UP TO ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND 3-4 INCHES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INCLUDING MEMPHIS. SOME PLACES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE OVER
10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA...RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...MAY NOT GET QUITE AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER PICKING UP
MORE. EITHER WAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLACE LIKE
THE CURRENT BOUNDARY HOWEVER GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ON A ISOLATED LEVEL. THE GROUND WILL
BE SATURATED AND RIVER/STREAM FLOWS WILL ALREADY BE HIGH SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER LOW THAT TREKKED
FROM MEXICO IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH ON TO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXIT THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY...DRY AND VERY WARM...MAYBE 80.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT JBR...MKL AND MEM. CIGS WILL BE VARIED...BUT
LOWEST/LIFR WILL BE AT JBR. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR VSBY WILL
EXIST IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO TUP
WITH VFR CIGS ALSO LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR. A SMALL SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING NORTHEAST WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AT MEM AND MKL. BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR JBR WITH LIGHT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
831 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO INCREASE POP`S GIVEN
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING PRECIPITATION
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR SW
CORNER, AND THE HRRR SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN AREAS WEST OF NASHVILLE, WITH
LIGHTER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALMOST TO THE PLATEAU. OTHERWISE, THE
HOURLY GRIDS ARE HOLDING UP REASONABLY WELL THUS FAR AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT KCKV BY 05-06Z...FLIGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AROUND 11Z. IT WILL BE A SLOW TRICKLE
ACROSS THE MID-STATE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY FOR CIGS TO FALL AND BY
THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE...KBNA/KCKV/KCSV SHOULD ALL BE AT LEAST
MVFR. IFR IS LIKELY TO COME DURING THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY 8-10 KTS AND THE
OCCASIONAL GUST. THOSE NW WINDS SEEN AT KCKV SHOULD TURN BACK TO
THE SOUTH BY 02-03Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM..................08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
538 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HEAVY RAIN EVENT WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS SETUP IS PUMPING
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM
EAST TEXAS NORTHEAST THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH. A STEADY STREAM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN COVERS MUCH OF THE DELTA ATTM WITH FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT AS A STREAM OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE
REGION. PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES OR MORE ADVECT INTO THE MID-SOUTH
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THIS CONFIRMED WELL BY THE LATEST HRRR DATA. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT SEEMS GOOD ATTM. THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND START TO PUSH IT EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH UP TO ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND 3-4 INCHES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INCLUDING MEMPHIS. SOME PLACES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE OVER
10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA...RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...MAY NOT GET QUITE AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER PICKING UP
MORE. EITHER WAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLACE LIKE
THE CURRENT BOUNDARY HOWEVER GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ON A ISOLATED LEVEL. THE GROUND WILL
BE SATURATED AND RIVER/STREAM FLOWS WILL ALREADY BE HIGH SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER LOW THAT TREKKED
FROM MEXICO IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH ON TO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXIT THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY...DRY AND VERY WARM...MAYBE 80.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT JBR...MKL AND MEM. CIGS WILL BE VARIED...BUT
LOWEST/LIFR WILL BE AT JBR. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR VSBY WILL
EXIST IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO TUP
WITH VFR CIGS ALSO LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR. A SMALL SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING NORTHEAST WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AT MEM AND MKL. BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR JBR WITH LIGHT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
523 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT MID AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LAND
BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA...OTHERWISE MID TN WAS RAIN FREE. SKIES
WERE CLOUDY WEST OF I 65...AND MAINLY SUNNY EAST. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE VERY MILD 70S...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. AN INTERESTING AND
UNEXPECTED FEATURE IS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS SHARPENED ACROSS
NW MID TN...SEPARATING RAIN COOLED AIR AND NW WINDS IN THE CKV
AREA FROM THE MILD AIR AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE. MOST
MODELS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS
IT...AND INDICATES THE FEATURE STAYING AROUND INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN LARGE SCALE WX FEATURES AFFECTING OUR WX INCLUDE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
AND TX. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS HAS CREATED SOUTH WINDS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE RUNNING 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...BUT NOT QUITE RECORD
SETTING. THE SOUTH FLOW WAS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST...UP THE MS VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. ALSO...THERE WAS A FRONT LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO THE MID MS VALLEY THAT WILL BE COMING OUR WAY.
FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS WARMER THAN
OUR NORMAL HIGHS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE WEST HALF. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DEEP MOISTURE COMES IN FROM THE SSW. RAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS MID TN THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I 65.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE TN VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING AND
MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TX LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN. THERE
WILL BE EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST TIME...WITH 30-40 POPS.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN ON SATURDAY...SOME PLACES MAY TOUCH 80
DEGREES.
AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY...DRY WX WILL RETURN
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S...AND POSSIBLY 80 IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT KCKV BY 05-06Z...FLIGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AROUND 11Z. IT WILL BE A SLOW TRICKLE
ACROSS THE MID-STATE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY FOR CIGS TO FALL AND BY
THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE...KBNA/KCKV/KCSV SHOULD ALL BE AT LEAST
MVFR. IFR IS LIKELY TO COME DURING THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY 8-10 KTS AND THE
OCCASIONAL GUST. THOSE NW WINDS SEEN AT KCKV SHOULD TURN BACK TO
THE SOUTH BY 02-03Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION........UNGER
LONG TERM.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
CREATED A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S...WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN CALM MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
THEREFORE...THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINING OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
CHALLENGING AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE WINDS. FOR TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST. WARM SOUTH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL ALLOW CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN MS VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY BUT THEN BEGAN TO MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER TX THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN
VALLEYS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG ON THE EAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER RIDGE SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND TROUGHING MOVES
IN TO REPLACE IT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LEFT OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NO PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 52 75 56 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 48 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 42 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1155 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MAINLY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE METROPLEX OVERNIGHT WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALREADY
STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS...NORTHWEST OF KMAF /MIDLAND/
AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF KOZA /OZONA/. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MOVE NORTHEAST OR EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE I-35
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE METROPLEX AND WACO 13-15Z TUESDAY. THUS
HAVE PLACED A TEMPO 3SM TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR THE 13-17Z PERIOD.
AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT CEILINGS
TO START TO IMPROVE WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT THE AIRPORTS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN INITIAL BATCH OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE IS POSITIONED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IT HAS MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS SWEETWATER BUT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING NOW
APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH IS HELPING TO SHARPEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED. LATEST LOOK AT RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES INDICATES THAT A SHARP CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4KM NAM ALSO
SHOWS AN ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE ALTHOUGH IT COULD PUT DOWN ANOTHER BAND OF AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. IN ALL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL TONIGHT IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35W AND AREAS
WEST.
TUESDAY...IS OUR MAIN DAY IN QUESTION REGARDING THE FORECAST AS IT
COULD VERY WELL BE MOSTLY QUIET OR RATHER ACTIVE. IT IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO POPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL MAIN AREAS OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WEST OF I-35. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A RATHER UNPERTURBED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WEAKLY
CAPPED. THIS SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES BACK WEAKLY IN THE MID LEVELS
LIKELY INDICATING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE...THEN IT MAY BE A
QUIET DAY...ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM. IF THE SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT
EXIST AND WE HAVE ANY LIFT AT ALL...THEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ON THE AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY
ANY DATA FROM 12 OR 18Z SOUNDINGS TOMORROW CAN OFFER. FOR NOW...WE
WILL SIDE WITH LOWER OVERALL POPS AND MONITOR THE THREAT CLOSELY.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WARM ADVECTION STREAMER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.
THE NEXT LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE TIME WHEN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...EAST OF THE METROPLEX FOR
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
COULD SEE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
DISCREPANCIES GROW REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. WE CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 75 60 68 57 / 80 50 100 60 50
WACO, TX 66 77 59 70 56 / 60 40 100 60 50
PARIS, TX 62 72 61 68 58 / 70 90 100 90 50
DENTON, TX 64 74 59 68 56 / 80 50 100 60 50
MCKINNEY, TX 65 74 60 67 56 / 80 50 100 70 50
DALLAS, TX 68 75 60 69 58 / 70 50 100 70 50
TERRELL, TX 67 75 60 69 58 / 60 60 100 80 50
CORSICANA, TX 65 76 61 69 58 / 50 50 100 70 50
TEMPLE, TX 66 78 59 70 56 / 60 40 100 50 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 62 77 57 68 54 / 80 50 80 50 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ADVANCING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM HELPING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS...AND HAS IT SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO ABOUT
MID AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED POPS TO TIME THIS AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL...WITH AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY. THINGS SHOULD THEN DRY OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ALREADY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FILLING IN OF DIURNAL CUMULUS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS. SO...WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 60S AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHEAST...UNTIL THE CLOUDS
START FILLING IN. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 60S
AT LEAST...AND MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT AS WELL.
WOOD
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MADISON...AND POSSIBLY CLIP WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE...LATE THIS
MORNING INTO ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CATEGORY
CEILINGS BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHEAST AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FOG DOWN TO 1 MILE
OR SO BY LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CATEGORY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WOOD
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST VSBY IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFFECTING
LAKESHORE AREAS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF. EXPECT MORE
BREAKS OR THIN OVC FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MIXING OVER THE SHORE AREAS.
THIS MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTIER WINDS REACHING LAKESHORE AND
THEN SPREADING OUT AND AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. VESSEL ON WI_IL BORDER REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
19 KTS AND A NUMBER OF IL C-MAN STATIONS REPORTING GUSTY WIND OF
20 TO 25 KTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS...SO HAVE ALREADY
POSTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST. AS SUNSHINE WANES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE MIXINESS WILL DIMINISH.
WEBCAMS SHOWING HAZINESS OVER THE LAKE. HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO BLANKET SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH TODAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC FRONT...THE
THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
PCPN BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT FROM NE IOWA TO WESTERN IL AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SW. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS STILL FOCUSING BEST FORCING...WITH PCPN
TRAILING OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE. WARM ADVECTION HAS HELD TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT FOR A WARM START. SOME DELAY IN WARMING WITH MORNING PCPN
BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH MID 60S WITH A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
THROUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEXT
SHORT WAVE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BISECT CWA FROM ME TO SW BY 12Z WED.
WHILE MODELS SHOW LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WEAKENING AS
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKED TO THE NW OF THE CWA LIFTS OFF TO THE NE
STILL ENOUGH FORCING AND OMEGA FOR LIKELY POPS IN THE SE ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SLOWING COLD FRONT...LOWS HOLD IN THE 50S SE
WITH MID-UPPER 40S NW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONTINUED MILD AND MOIST REGIME WITH 250 MILLIBAR JET BECOMING
ORIENTED TO PLACE SRN WI WITHIN RRQ AND FAVORED REGION OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SURFACE/850 CONVERGENT ZONE WILL ALSO AID IN PROVIDING
FORCING WITH ONE SURFACE/850 WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SECOND
WAVE MOVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF QPF PROGS SHOWS HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
SE CLOSEST TO WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CO-LOCATED WITH
THE FORCING FROM SURFACE/850 LOWS/BOUNDARY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH COOLER NE FLOW REGIME.
SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THIS PERIOD.
FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH
RAIN RETURNING AFTER ABOUT 06Z. THE SUPERBLEND POPS ACKNOWLEDGE THE
QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/MID MISS VLY. SURFACE/850 LOW
AND THE ASSOC LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE MOIST REGIME.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SOME CONSENSUS IN PLACE THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
BRING DRY WX SFC RIDGING AND COOL NE OR E WIND FLOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. PCPN ENDS
TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FORCING WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BACK IN
AFTER 00Z WED. SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP FOCUS OF PCPN OVER SRN
WI ALONG WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 06Z WED THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST
MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND THE WAVES GENERATED BY THESE
WINDS...WILL BE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THE FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AIR OVER THE COOL WATERS
OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES. NOT
CONFIDENT IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE DENSE FOG WILL BE SO NO HEADLINE
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1246 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY
HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED AND LIMIT THE FOG
THREAT BUT WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS
SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
SKY GRIDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ALSO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVENT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
BROUGHT THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
STILL REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...ALLOWING WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE MAJORITY OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY TO
REFLECT MODEL TRENDS. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR WITH PWATS OF AROUND AN INCH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
A SOUTH TO WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE 08Z-16Z TIME FRAME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL.
STRATUS APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN FOG DUE TO A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. MODELS OVERDID THE
FOG THREAT LAST NIGHT AND BELIEVE IT IS OVERDONE AGAIN. HAVE GONE
WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPO IFR ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AFTER
SUNRISE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16 TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 23Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Rainfall has been very light so far this evening across the bulk
of central and southeast Illinois, and many areas have not seen
any measurable rainfall at all. Recent model and radar trends
suggest the threat of significant rainfall tonight has decreased
significantly across entire area except far southeast Illinois.
Weak disturbances will continue to stream northeast toward the
area overnight from the cutoff upper low over Mexico. However, the
vigorous convection over the lower Mississippi Valley is likely
minimizing our potential moisture feed and seems to have pushed
the preferred precipitation track closer to the Ohio River Valley.
With this thinking in mind will reduce the nighttime PoPs overall,
and confine the high PoPs to south of I-70. Plan to maintain the
Flood Watch for now, but the threat appears to be decreasing. Otherwise,
going forecast is in pretty good shape and only plan minor tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
A cold front southeast of the IL river and approaching I-55 at mid
afternoon will reach near I-72 by sunset and pass southeast of I-70
overnight, getting southeast of Lawrence county late tonight. 1008
mb surface low pressure along the northern TX/LA border to lift ne
along the front near southern tip of IL Thu morning. At mid
afternoon radar mosaic shows rain showers mainly confined to areas
south of I-70 with thunderstorms still south of IL. RAP and HRRR
models spread rain showers ne across central IL during this evening
and continue overnight, with most of the rain staying southeast of
Knox and Stark counties in our far northwest CWA. Instability
parameters limits isolated thunderstorms chances south of I-70.
Models have continued to trend further southeast with heavier qpf
tonight and half to 1 inch along and southeast of a Taylorville to
Decatur to Champaign line with the heavier amounts south of I-70,
with half to three quarter inches of rain in southeast IL Thu. So
will continue the flash flood watch along and south of I-70 thru
Thu. Lows tonight to range from the mid 40s nw of the IL river to
the upper 50s in southeast IL, which stays on the mild side of the
front until late tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Models in good agreement that the rain will be tapering off by
Thursday afternoon in southeast IL. Still looks like a prolonged
period of rain through the weekend, but again, rainfall amounts look
to be on the lower side.
By Thursday morning the cold front is expected to be just north of
the Ohio Valley, with a short wave trough axis in the eastern
Plains. The shortwave will rapidly reach central IL by Thursday
evening, resulting in only lingering showers in southeast IL. High
pressure across the Great Lakes on Friday will push the front south
of the TN Valley and produce plenty of sun and continued mild
temperatures.
An upper low moving out of Texas on Saturday will push the frontal
boundary back north resulting in overrunning rainfall spreading into
central and southeast IL. Initially could see some higher rainfall
totals as low level moisture and isentropic lift is maximized early
Saturday. However, after we get into the warm sector later in the
day Saturday through Sunday the rain will be more showery with
spotty QPF amounts. Both the GFS and European models are similar in
shifting the upper level energy through the lower Ohio Valley by
Monday afternoon, bringing an end to the rain.
By Tuesday the medium range models diverge significantly with their
solutions, having a big impact on our forecast. The GFS is very
aggressive in deepening a mid level shortwave, which then becomes
negatively tilted and lifts through the upper Midwest by Tuesday
evening. This scenario rapidly deepens a surface low and points to a
rather potent thunderstorm episode for the Midwest. The European on
the other hand is 12-18 hours slower and not as deep with the upper
low or associated surface features. For now will side with the less
aggressive European model, and slow things down by keeping the
potential for thunderstorms out of the forecast until Wednesday-Wed
evening in central/eastern IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Conditions across the central Illinois terminals for the rest of
the night should range from VFR around KPIA to IFR further east
at KCMI/KDEC. These lower condtions are associated with their
proximity to a slow moving cold front as well as periods of
rainfall. VFR conditions should develop areawide with time on
Thursday as the front pushes away from the area and the showers
come to an end.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
IGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN WAS CHANNELING A COOL...DRY
AIRMASS INTO REGION ON VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MI SW TO SOUTHERN AR WITH
ASSOCIATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL. AREA RADARS SHOWED HIGH
BASED REFLECTIVITY FROM NE MO THROUGH GALESBURG INTO NORTHERN
IL...WHERE THE DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WAS RESULTING IN ONLY
VIRGA FROM CLOUD BASES WELL ABOVE 12 KFT. ALOFT...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
RIDING ON THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS PROVIDING AN EXTENSIVE AREA
OF HIGH CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THESE
HIGH CLOUDS ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN KS ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO
NORTHERN WI. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS WAS JUST EAST OF THE
SURFACE HIGH BLANKETING MUCH OF MN INTO WI. PATCHY FOG WAS
OCCURRING IN THE CLEARING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ACROSS NW AND N
CENTRAL IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH MIGRATES SE OVER THE
REGION. TODAY...THE STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET NUDGED
EAST-SE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY BY THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE AND
DISCOUNTED. HAVE THUS TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH A NW TO SE CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...
LIGHT NW WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END
OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NE TO LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SE.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING OVER
THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND
POSSIBLY 20S WILL LEAD TO A COMPARATIVELY COOL NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED
MINS TO A RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTH...WHICH COULD STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE LOOKING AT CURRENT
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S UNDER THE HIGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FRIDAY...LLVL GRT LKS RIDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH A TYPE OF REX BLOCK OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE
CONUS. EXPECTED INSOLATION...AND SOME SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW LATER
IN THE DAY SHOULD DRIVE HIGH TEMPS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED WITH A FEW SITES EVEN WARMER. AS THE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW PART OF THE BLOCK GET/S EDGY FROM UPSTREAM KICKER
AND WANTS TO START TO GYRATE NORTHEASTWARD...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTH FOR LATE FRI NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS MIGRATING UP FROM THE SOUTH AIDED BY DEVELOPING LLJ...BUT
FEEL THE 00Z RUN GFS/GEM WHICH ARE SLOWER-DRY THROUGH 12Z SAT HAVE
MORE OF A HANDLE ON BLOCKED PATTERN AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEVELOPING WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ON SAT...
BUT PREFERRED SLOWER PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THEY MAY NOT GET NORTH OF
I80 UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. WILL ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
SOUTH AS THE ACTIVITY ADVANCES...BUT INSTABILITY PROGS ARE MORE
MARGINAL WITH THE CURRENT 00Z RUNS THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY. A PIECE
OF THE UPPER LOW THEN ADVANCES NORTHWARD UP ACRS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS HAVING BETTER COVERAGE AHEAD OF IT
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MASS FORCING PROGS SUGGEST THAT AFTER THE SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRECIP EXITS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...
THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE OF AT NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER WAVE. SUNDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN VORT MAX GRADIENT...
BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING INCREASING SATURATION. EARLY RAINFALL TOTALS
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WEEKEND COULD RANGE FROM
A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH...BUT BE LEERY OF MODEL QPF THAT FAR OUT.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST A
POTENTIALLY CONTINUED UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BLOCKED UPPER WAVE
LINGERS ON MONDAY MAINTAINING SOME TYPE OF SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDER
THREAT. THEN MORE UPSTREAM WAVE ENERGY WILL PROPAGATE ACRS THE
MIDWEST SOME TIME AND IN SOME FASHION THROUGH THE MIDWEST TUE INTO
WED. MUCH MODEL DISCREPANCY IN HANDLING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
POSSIBLE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOWARD MID
WEEK...AND WILL COVER WITH GENERAL LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW. AFTER THAT...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME TYPE OF COLD CORE
L/W TROF TRYING TO ESTABLISH ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS BY
LATE WEEK FOR A POSSIBLE RETURN TO WINTER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF CYCLE. AROUND DAYBREAK
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS OR
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS... BUT EXISTENCE OF FAIRLY DENSE HIGH CLOUDINESS
MAKES FOR LOW CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT AT THE TAF SITES AND THUS
PRECLUDES MENTION FOR NOW BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. LATEST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR SUGGEST LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHEAST
IOWA COULD DIP SOUTH AND BRUSH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 ON THURSDAY.
CID AND DBQ WOULD BE THE TAF SITES HAVING ANY CHANCE FOR LOWER MVFR CIGS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION AS WELL.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
330 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A weak surface high pressure in place across the region as the main
frontal boundary remains stationary over the Mid MS valley. Winds
will stay light and variable today as a weak shortwave trough tracks
over the central plains. There has been light showers associated
with this trough in northwest KS this morning. These showers will
try to move into eastern KS, but will encounter a deep layer of dry
air aloft. Have kept a mention of sprinkles in far north central KS
during late morning. Otherwise the main concern today will be high
fire danger as deep mixing takes place during the afternoon. The
upper air sounding from last evening revealed significant dry air
just above the surface, which is not forecasted to change before
mixing today. As the mixing begins this dry air will work towards
the surface causing dew points to drop possibly into the upper 20s.
Normally the RAP excels in these situations therefore have lowered
dew points below most of the guidance and closer to the RAP. This
means the minimum RH values could reach the lower 20 percent range
mainly along and near a line from Herington to Seneca. Luckily the
wind speeds stay generally below 10 mph in these areas. Although
winds will be closer to 15 mph in east central KS, but RH is not
forecasted to drop as low. Given the dry surface conditions though
fire danger will be high during peak heating today. Highs will
approach the upper 60s to near 70 with only high level clouds
possible through out the day. Later tonight not much change in the
overall weather pattern therefore the winds remain light and
variable tonight, and lows are expected to be near 40.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Minimal change to the forecast with the upper low over Texas at the
start of the period on Friday gradually moving north and northeast
through early Sunday. The upper low/trough dampens as it moves
northward, then is kicked to the northeast as an upstream wave move
east into the Southern Plains on Sunday. Moisture will return on
Friday with condensation pressure deficits decreasing during the
afternoon and evening hours in area of isentropic lift in the 290K-
300K layer. Precipitable water values increase rapidly Friday night
to near 1.25 inches. Moderate lift and good moisture transport will
lead to some periods of moderate rainfall. Presence of elevated
instability late Friday night and Saturday kept a chance of thunder
in the east. With the passage of the upper trough Saturday night and
Sunday kept mention of isolated thunderstorms with elevated cape of
a few hundred J/kg and weak to moderate shear. Start to dry out
Sunday night with the weak ridge building over eastern Kansas. Next
trough moves out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains Tuesday
deepening as it moves east. Gulf moisture looks limited with system
as it moves through the Central Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible with mid level moistening and steepening mid level lapse
rates for high based convection. Models also differ on speed and how
quickly cold air will move into the area Tuesday which will affect
high temperatures and have adjusted slightly from prior forecast.
Warmest temperatures look to be on Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 70s. Temperatures overall through the period will remain above
seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Although there will be an elevated band of convection over the
northwest edge of the existing Flash Flood Watch in Southeast
Missouri, trends suggest that this rain will remain below flash
flood thresholds during the day on Thursday. Although I cannot
speak for the dayshift forecast crew, I would not be surprised if
the western edge of the Flash Flood Watch may be reduced in size
over Southeast Missouri, and possibly over more of Southwest
Illinois with time.
The main moisture convergence, instability, and lift will be
effectively shifted along the Ohio River, southwest toward toward
the confluence of the Mississippi River and into the Missouri
Bootheel through the 02z Friday (8 pm CST Thursday). As mentioned
as early as late last week in the Hydrological Outlook, any
significant convection over TN, MS, and AL could briefly disrupt
the moisture flow into West Kentucky, disrupting the gradient of
moisture flux and reduce precipitation amounts. However, this may
impact areas west of the Land Between the Lakes than the
Pennyrile. Last night`s convection over Southwest Kentucky and
extreme Southern Illinois already confirms the saturated nature of
antecedent soil conditions prior to the onset of the rain. This
would tend to support faster runoff with higher precipitation
rates and efficiencies.
The 06z NAM-WRF, 00z Canadian, and 00z 20 km GFS are finally
catching up to the southeastward shift of the main heavy
precipitation axis of the RAP and HRRR. This has been a difficult
transition to move away from Southeast Missouri and Southwest
Illinois, given the multi-day emphasis toward the aforementioned
areas for heavy rain.
The heavy rain should work southward later tonight and Friday, as
the ridging aloft builds in from the southeast and the closed low
over northern Mexico shifts eastward into Southeast Texas,
disrupting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (via the
enhancement of convection in the western Gulf). This should
diminish the overall threat of sustained heavy rain.
However, as the Texas low moves north and opens up, it will bring
rain chances back to the area in earnest Saturday and Saturday
night. Although the coverage will not be as widespread as expected
today, the lift and intensity of the convection (mainly in the
form of rain bands) will be enhanced with the negatively tilted
nature of the low and trough as it works into the Central Plains,
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys.
With respect to temperatures, continued the trend of lower than
previous forecast temperatures due to the widespread rain today.
Blended with minor adjustments for Friday and into the weekend, as
convective activity become a little more scattered and banded with
time.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
We pick up the long term on the tail end of a weekend rain system.
The first wave pulls out Sunday, followed by a lull (but not
disappearance) in pops, before another spike as the main wave moves
across the Tennessee valley. Both waves will present elevated
instability sufficient for the inclusion of thunder, but with one
departing and the other tracking just to our south, the chance will
be slight/isolated at best. Similarly, overall qpf for the weekend
system, ending Monday, should be light with amounts generally less
than a quarter inch.
Monday night-Tuesday looks dry, but a zonal flow pattern will race
then next Low pressure system into the area by Wednesday, and it too
will yield pops including a slight chance of thunder for a couple
days to finish out the forecast.
Temps will continue running above normal for the week with upper 60s
or 70s for highs and generally 50s for lows. Tuesday looks the
warmest.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Expect gradually lowering cigs through the period, with MVFR/IFR
cigs and VFR vsbys prevailing this afternoon. The latest model
guidance suggests conditions deteriorating into IFR/LIFR cigs and
MVFR vsbys tonight and continuing into the morning hours as shower
coverage and intensity increase. Uncertainty lingers in the timing
of the LIFR cigs overnight as the front`s progression has been
difficult for the models to agree on. Will monitor and make
adjustments as needed. Winds will be AOB 10 kts, with the
exception of gusts near KOWB over the next few hours, and will
become variable overnight as the aforementioned front begins its
passage through the local area.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ084>094.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ087-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...Meffert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
8Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH CLOUDS COVER AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. A
RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF OF THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LARGE RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WERE IN PLACE ONCE MORE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. AS THICKER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA...EXPECT SOME OF THESE LOWER VALLEYS TO BEGIN MODERATING A
BIT...LESSONING THE SPLIT BY DAYBREAK.
HI RES MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP SHIELD
MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE AN INITIAL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE NE CWA...BUT THEN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY
JUST WEST OF KY /ITS CURRENT POSITION/ THE PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS CENTRAL KY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN START A SOLID PUSH EASTWARD...AS WILL THE PRECIP
SHIELD...QUICKLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE HIRES ARW AND HIRES NMM ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO SPLIT INTO TWO SPECIFIC LINES AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AND SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT 6 HOUR PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.3 INCHES
/SOME IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES/ THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS WELL...SO INCLUDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH THIS TIME.
BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NE
AND MORE NRLY WINDS TO TAKE HOLD. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH
AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER ENOUGH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD KEEP QPF QUITE LIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL...WITH A SIMILAR PRECIP SET UP.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...STRONG SE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE PRECIP. STRONG WINDS IN THE MID
LEVELS AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH POST FRONTAL...AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES FOR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS WELL...THOUGH STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL WE
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ME TO UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016
AT UPPER LEVELS...AN ANOMALOUS LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEAST FIGHTING AGAINST A HIGH BLOCK OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A SECONDARY LOW COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL ABSORB THE ANOMALOUS LOW AS IT BECOMES AN
OPEN WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WITH THE PATTERN
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
BEFORE THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH OUR
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DRYING NORTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO SCATTER
OUT RAIN SHOWERS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT BACK NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
THOUGH...WITH SFC RIDGING NEAR BY...RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE TO MUCH ON SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS BOTH THE INITIAL AND
THE SECONDARY LOWS MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TO SUPPORT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THINGS DRY OUT ON TUESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THOUGH...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
PLAINS AND QUICKLY MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AT LOW LEVELS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH THE WARMEST DAY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE /IN THE 50S/ AS CLOUD COVER
AND PERIODS OF RAIN LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CHANGES
WILL BE ON THE WAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL FIRST BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS WHEN DAYTIME
WARMING BREAKS THE MORNING TEMPERATURE INVERSION ON THURSDAY.
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LATE IN THE DAY...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...AFFECTING
AREAS AROUND KIOB AND KSYM BY 2400. RAIN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD FROM
NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN AND MVFR VIS AND CIGS /IF NOT BORDERLINE
IFR/ TO ROUND OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JMW
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
...Moderate to Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Along and West of
Interstate 65 Today...
The synoptic pattern this morning features a rather impressive,
anomalous closed low at a very low latitude across portions of
northern Mexico. This low has allowed an extensive stream of
moisture originating in the southern GofMex to push ENE into the
Southeast and up into the Ohio River Valley, which will be the main
focus of the period.
Latest surface analysis shows a very weak/subtle stalled boundary
across portions of southeast MO/southern IL/southern IN this
morning. Deep moisture transport into this boundary was resulting a
solid shield of moderate precipitation across western KY and
southeast MO. The precipitation here in the LMK CWA has been more
showery in nature thus far, given the front is still off to the
northwest resulting in less focus and low-level lift. This will
likely continue for the next few hours.
However, by later this morning the front will sag southeast into our
region, pushed by a northern stream PV anomaly passing through the
Midwest. This northern stream system should help to focus the
precipitation a bit more along the front as isentropic response
occurs, which should result in higher rates than what we`ve seen
thus far this morning. Expect moderate, to locally heavy rainfall
to spread from west to east across the region this afternoon into
this evening. The good news is that much of the hi-res guidance has
trended down for precipitation amounts with this system, likely
owing to a slightly more progressive solution and the fact that we
are going to be robbed of the richer moisture from convection to the
southwest. Nonetheless, still expect additional precipitation
amounts on the order of 1 to 2 inches, with a localized 3 inch
amount not completely out of the question. 3-hour flash flood
guidance is still on the order of 2-3 inches and we do not expect
those type of rates to be met. Therefore, will not be issuing any
flood headlines with this package. That being said, some minor,
lowland flooding is possible mainly across north-central KY and
southern IN where the heaviest rains are expected. Will limit
thunder mention to south-central KY where elevated instability is
apparent. However, the very moist profiles will likely limit the
overall threat to just a few rumbles.
The northern stream shortwave appears that it will be just strong
enough to shunt the front into TN by tonight, which will help to dry
things out across much of the region late tonight through much of
Friday. Could even some sunshine across the north tomorrow
afternoon!
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a strong closed low over TX, with another PV anomaly diving
into the California coast. The west coast system will help to eject
the closed low out of TX and up into the Ohio Valley this weekend,
bringing continued chances of rain and even a few thunderstorms.
The closed low will transition into more of an open wave Friday
night into Saturday. Downstream, the ridge will attempt to
reestablish itself back over the Ohio Valley in response, which will
help lift the boundary in TN back north as a warm front Friday night
into early Saturday. This will result in a few showers or maybe even
a thunderstorm as it lifts northward. However, by Saturday afternoon
we will be well within the warm sector. Guidance tends to overdo
precipitation coverage within the warm sector, thus think
precipitation Saturday afternoon will be isolated to widely
scattered. If we are able to see some breaks in the clouds,
temperatures pushing 80 will be possible. However, will stay
conservative for now given we expect clouds to be around, which
keeps highs in the mid to upper 70s.
The open wave and associated front will push through the region
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing better chances for showers and
a few thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will be cooler given the expected
rain and the front passing through.
The PV anomaly responsible for kicking out the closed low will slide
through the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday, resulting in yet
another rain/storm chance. At least low rain chances will persist
through the middle of next week given active southwesterly flow
continuing across the region. Despite the wet weather, temperatures
will continue to remain seasonably mild through the period.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1217 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
Well advertised deep moisture plume will push up from the Gulf of
Mexico and into the Ohio Valley during the period. For the
overnight hours, a broken to overcast mid deck of cloudiness will be
seen with ceilings remaining above VFR thresholds. Scattered rain
showers will affect KSDF and KBWG which may take visibilities down
into the MVFR range overnight. KLEX looks to remain VFR on cigs and
vsbys overnight along with mainly dry conditions.
After sunrise, shower coverage looks to become more widespread and
ceilings are likely to drop into the MVFR category at KSDF and KBWG.
A frontal boundary will push in from the west and will result in a
wind shift from the SW to the W/NW. A strong signal in the model
data suggests that ceilings will crash behind the front with
ceilings falling to a 1kft AGL or less with ceilings remaining in
the 2-3SM range. KLEX will see similar conditions, but will be time-
shifted into the afternoon given their further eastern location.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
...Moderate to Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Along and West of
Interstate 65 Today...
The synoptic pattern this morning features a rather impressive,
anomalous closed low at a very low latitude across portions of
northern Mexico. This low has allowed an extensive stream of
moisture originating in the southern GofMex to push ENE into the
Southeast and up into the Ohio River Valley, which will be the main
focus of the period.
Latest surface analysis shows a very weak/subtle stalled boundary
across portions of southeast MO/southern IL/southern IN this
morning. Deep moisture transport into this boundary was resulting a
solid shield of moderate precipitation across western KY and
southeast MO. The precipitation here in the LMK CWA has been more
showery in nature thus far, given the front is still off to the
northwest resulting in less focus and low-level lift. This will
likely continue for the next few hours.
However, by later this morning the front will sag southeast into our
region, pushed by a northern stream PV anomaly passing through the
Midwest. This northern stream system should help to focus the
precipitation a bit more along the front as isentropic response
occurs, which should result in higher rates than what we`ve seen
thus far this morning. Expect moderate, to locally heavy rainfall
to spread from west to east across the region this afternoon into
this evening. The good news is that much of the hi-res guidance has
trended down for precipitation amounts with this system, likely
owing to a slightly more progressive solution and the fact that we
are going to be robbed of the richer moisture from convection to the
southwest. Nonetheless, still expect additional precipitation
amounts on the order of 1 to 2 inches, with a localized 3 inch
amount not completely out of the question. 3-hour flash flood
guidance is still on the order of 2-3 inches and we do not expect
those type of rates to be met. Therefore, will not be issuing any
flood headlines with this package. That being said, some minor,
lowland flooding is possible mainly across north-central KY and
southern IN where the heaviest rains are expected. Will limit
thunder mention to south-central KY where elevated instability is
apparent. However, the very moist profiles will likely limit the
overall threat to just a few rumbles.
The northern stream shortwave appears that it will be just strong
enough to shunt the front into TN by tonight, which will help to dry
things out across much of the region late tonight through much of
Friday. Could even some sunshine across the north tomorrow
afternoon!
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a strong closed low over TX, with another PV anomaly diving
into the California coast. The west coast system will help to eject
the closed low out of TX and up into the Ohio Valley this weekend,
bringing continued chances of rain and even a few thunderstorms.
The closed low will transition into more of an open wave Friday
night into Saturday. Downstream, the ridge will attempt to
reestablish itself back over the Ohio Valley in response, which will
help lift the boundary in TN back north as a warm front Friday night
into early Saturday. This will result in a few showers or maybe even
a thunderstorm as it lifts northward. However, by Saturday afternoon
we will be well within the warm sector. Guidance tends to overdo
precipitation coverage within the warm sector, thus think
precipitation Saturday afternoon will be isolated to widely
scattered. If we are able to see some breaks in the clouds,
temperatures pushing 80 will be possible. However, will stay
conservative for now given we expect clouds to be around, which
keeps highs in the mid to upper 70s.
The open wave and associated front will push through the region
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing better chances for showers and
a few thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will be cooler given the expected
rain and the front passing through.
The PV anomaly responsible for kicking out the closed low will slide
through the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday, resulting in yet
another rain/storm chance. At least low rain chances will persist
through the middle of next week given active southwesterly flow
continuing across the region. Despite the wet weather, temperatures
will continue to remain seasonably mild through the period.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1217 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
Well advertised deep moisture plume will push up from the Gulf of
Mexico and into the Ohio Valley during the period. For the
overnight hours, a broken to overcast mid deck of cloudiness will be
seen with ceilings remaining above VFR thresholds. Scattered rain
showers will affect KSDF and KBWG which may take visibilities down
into the MVFR range overnight. KLEX looks to remain VFR on cigs and
vsbys overnight along with mainly dry conditions.
After sunrise, shower coverage looks to become more widespread and
ceilings are likely to drop into the MVFR category at KSDF and KBWG.
A frontal boundary will push in from the west and will result in a
wind shift from the SW to the W/NW. A strong signal in the model
data suggests that ceilings will crash behind the front with
ceilings falling to a 1kft AGL or less with ceilings remaining in
the 2-3SM range. KLEX will see similar conditions, but will be time-
shifted into the afternoon given their further eastern location.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
...Moderate to Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Along and West of
Interstate 65 Today...
The synoptic pattern this morning features a rather impressive,
anomalous closed low at a very low latitude across portions of
northern Mexico. This low has allowed an extensive stream of
moisture originating in the southern GofMex to push ENE into the
Southeast and up into the Ohio River Valley, which will be the main
focus of the period.
Latest surface analysis shows a very weak/subtle stalled boundary
across portions of southeast MO/southern IL/southern IN this
morning. Deep moisture transport into this boundary was resulting a
solid shield of moderate precipitation across western KY and
southeast MO. The precipitation here in the LMK CWA has been more
showery in nature thus far, given the front is still off to the
northwest resulting in less focus and low-level lift. This will
likely continue for the next few hours.
However, by later this morning the front will sag southeast into our
region, pushed by a northern stream PV anomaly passing through the
Midwest. This northern stream system should help to focus the
precipitation a bit more along the front as isentropic response
occurs, which should result in higher rates than what we`ve seen
thus far this morning. Expect moderate, to locally heavy rainfall
to spread from west to east across the region this afternoon into
this evening. The good news is that much of the hi-res guidance has
trended down for precipitation amounts with this system, likely
owing to a slightly more progressive solution and the fact that we
are going to be robbed of the richer moisture from convection to the
southwest. Nonetheless, still expect additional precipitation
amounts on the order of 1 to 2 inches, with a localized 3 inch
amount not completely out of the question. 3-hour flash flood
guidance is still on the order of 2-3 inches and we do not expect
those type of rates to be met. Therefore, will not be issuing any
flood headlines with this package. That being said, some minor,
lowland flooding is possible mainly across north-central KY and
southern IN where the heaviest rains are expected. Will limit
thunder mention to south-central KY where elevated instability is
apparent. However, the very moist profiles will likely limit the
overall threat to just a few rumbles.
The northern stream shortwave appears that it will be just strong
enough to shunt the front into TN by tonight, which will help to dry
things out across much of the region late tonight through much of
Friday. Could even some sunshine across the north tomorrow
afternoon!
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 313 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a strong closed low over TX, with another PV anomaly diving
into the California coast. The west coast system will help to eject
the closed low out of TX and up into the Ohio Valley this weekend,
bringing continued chances of rain and even a few thunderstorms.
The closed low will transition into more of an open wave Friday
night into Saturday. Downstream, the ridge will attempt to
reestablish itself back over the Ohio Valley in response, which will
help lift the boundary in TN back north as a warm front Friday night
into early Saturday. This will result in a few showers or maybe even
a thunderstorm as it lifts northward. However, by Saturday afternoon
we will be well within the warm sector. Guidance tends to overdo
precipitation coverage within the warm sector, thus think
precipitation Saturday afternoon will be isolated to widely
scattered. If we are able to see some breaks in the clouds,
temperatures pushing 80 will be possible. However, will stay
conservative for now given we expect clouds to be around, which
keeps highs in the mid to upper 70s.
The open wave and associated front will push through the region
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing better chances for showers and
a few thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will be cooler given the expected
rain and the front passing through.
The PV anomaly responsible for kicking out the closed low will slide
through the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday, resulting in yet
another rain/storm chance. At least low rain chances will persist
through the middle of next week given active southwesterly flow
continuing across the region. Despite the wet weather, temperatures
will continue to remain seasonably mild through the period.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1217 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016
Well advertised deep moisture plume will push up from the Gulf of
Mexico and into the Ohio Valley during the period. For the
overnight hours, a broken to overcast mid deck of cloudiness will be
seen with ceilings remaining above VFR thresholds. Scattered rain
showers will affect KSDF and KBWG which may take visibilities down
into the MVFR range overnight. KLEX looks to remain VFR on cigs and
vsbys overnight along with mainly dry conditions.
After sunrise, shower coverage looks to become more widespread and
ceilings are likely to drop into the MVFR category at KSDF and KBWG.
A frontal boundary will push in from the west and will result in a
wind shift from the SW to the W/NW. A strong signal in the model
data suggests that ceilings will crash behind the front with
ceilings falling to a 1kft AGL or less with ceilings remaining in
the 2-3SM range. KLEX will see similar conditions, but will be time-
shifted into the afternoon given their further eastern location.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1255 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Rain-cooled boundary has set up further to the southeast than
originally anticipated. In coordination with impacted NWS offices
surrounding our County Warning Area (CWA), will be dropping the two
northern tier of Southern Illinois counties in our forecast area
from the Flash Flood Watch. Will be adding all of the Pennyrile
region of West Kentucky to the Flash Flood Watch, as well as Spencer
and Warrick Counties in Southwest Indiana. The RAP guidance is
handle the wind and moisture convergence fields much better than the
NAM and GFS at this time, which is too far to the west.
There may be further reduction of the Flash Flood Watch over parts
of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois during the day on
Thursday, but will coordinate with the day crew on trends after
12z (6 am CST).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Average confidence in the short term due to so-so model agreement
and lack of continuity.
Rain from the well advertised excessive precipitation event should
continue to spread northeastward across the entire area tonight.
Models still not in the best agreement regarding the axis of
greatest rainfall. For days models have indicated the greatest
threat area for excessive rainfall to be the northwestern half of
our CWA. Now that the event has begun to unfold, it appears that the
axis may very well shift slightly farther south and east. With a
surface boundary just to the north and west, plenty of deep
moisture, and periodic impulses of upper level energy lifting
northward across the region from the upper low over Old Mexico, most
areas are going to see rain off and on this afternoon and tonight.
With models still not in the best agreement, not planning to cancel
any portions of the Flash Flood Watch at this time.
The scenario will show very little change on Thursday, so widespread
rain will be commonplace. Thursday night models continue to show a
short wave moving eastward out of the central plains impinging on
the northern periphery of the precipitation shield thereby
supressing it a bit to the south and east. Precipitation chances
will not disappear Thursday night, but probabilities will be reduced.
With the aforementioned frontal boundary stalled just to the south
of our CWA, precipitation chances will not go away on Friday.
Precipitation chances begin to ramp up Friday night as the
aforementioned upper begins to lift northward and pushes the frontal
boundary back across our CWA.
Areas of instability are somewhat patchy and limited through the
period so thunder chances move around in each period accordingly.
Based on the latest model guidance, precipitation totals for the
event have been lowered over the western sections and increased
over the eastern sections.
Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
The medium range model solutions were in reasonable agreement in the
extended period, though exact timing of features will be more of a
challenge than the overall rather active pattern. The period will
start out with rising mid level heights and a surface warm frontal
passage (Saturday) over the PAH forecast area as northern stream
shortwave energy passes by. This will allow a stacked low,
previously over old Mexico, to eject northward across our region
later Saturday and around the periphery of a Bermuda high, resulting
in a nearly certain chance of showers by Saturday night, and a
decent chance of thunderstorms during the day, perhaps waning a bit
by the evening.
Sunday may be mostly dry, but by Sunday night, the models indicate
that a low, originating from the Pacific, will roll northeastward
through the PAH forecast area, providing at least scattered showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms to the region. Finally, as the mid
level pattern becomes more quasi-zonal, pcpn chances should be
gone by Monday night.
We should have a reprieve from the rainfall until probably
Wednesday, when the northern stream takes on a "troffiness".
Meanwhile, at least one large low/trof will dig somewhere into the
Midwest (IA? Great Lakes?) and drag a limited-moisture cold front
through our region, with a limited chance of pcpn.
No blasts of significantly cold air are forecast through the period,
thus temperatures are expected to be significantly above average for
this time of year, with moderate afternoon humidity levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Expect gradually lowering cigs through the period, with MVFR/IFR
cigs and VFR vsbys prevailing this afternoon. The latest model
guidance suggests conditions deteriorating into IFR/LIFR cigs and
MVFR vsbys tonight and continuing into the morning hours as shower
coverage and intensity increase. Uncertainty lingers in the timing
of the LIFR cigs overnight as the front`s progression has been
difficult for the models to agree on. Will monitor and make
adjustments as needed. Winds will be AOB 10 kts, with the
exception of gusts near KOWB over the next few hours, and will
become variable overnight as the aforementioned front begins its
passage through the local area.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ084>094.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ087-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...BP2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1213 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LA LATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE I-10
TERMINALS GENERALLY RAIN FREE...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME RECENT
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN NEAR KBPT. GIVEN THE GENERAL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BEYOND A FEW HRS...TAILORED THE
FCST TWD WINDS AND CIGS. MVFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AWAY FROM
CONVECTION...THOUGH PDS OF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BRISK AND GUSTY TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT ARE FCST TO FINALLY DECREASE TOMORROW EVENING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
UPDATE...
ALL HAZARDS REMAIN UNCHANGED THIS EVENING...AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...MAINLY POP/WX/TEMP BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH JASPER
COUNTY...NEWTON COUNTY...AND VERNON PARISH TAKING THE BRUNT OF IT.
LIKELIHOOD THAT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE EXTENDED BEYOND THE
CURRENT EXPIRATION TIMES. LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TAKE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND
MEAN RH OVER 85 PERCENT FROM 10/00Z KLCH UPPER AIR SOUNDING) AND
RIDES IT OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM JUST WEST
OF ALEXANDRIA TO JUST NORTHWEST OF BEAUMONT. WEST END OF THE BOUNDARY
WAFFLED A LITTLE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST HOUR...LESSENING
THE SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AS RADAR IS SHOWING
A BAND BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND JENNINGS UP
THROUGH ALLEN PARISH INTO RAPIDES. THIS IS ON THE EDGE OF MSAS
ANALYSIS OF STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND THIS AREA
MAY VERY WELL FILL IN AND TRAIN AS NOCTURNAL JET PREVAILS...AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ALSO...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
STILL WANTING TO DEVELOP A MCS LIKE FEATURE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PUSH EVERYTHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING
EARLY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT IN THAT
HAPPENING AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ACADIANA MAY
MISS OUT ON ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW OVER EAST
TEXAS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL LA...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. EARLIER EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED NEAR A FT POLK TO PORT
ARTHUR LINE. TAF PACKAGE WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH AT LEAST SOME
EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN MIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS
INDICATED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RE-
EVALUATED IN TERMS OF TSRA TIMING PENDING RADAR TRENDS. IN ANY
CASE...MVFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH
ELEVATED AND AT TIMES GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY KLCH-KLFT-
KARA. IFR TO LIFR IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXTENDING FM ARK SSW INTO NRN LA/ERN TX DOWN TOWARD FAR S TX.
WHILE THIS LARGER AREA OF STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING DUE TO DEEP
UPR LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO...THE ACTIVITY ACRS SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL
LA HAS BEEN AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A MLU-JAS-IAH LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS HAVE RANGED FM 1.5 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES ACRS NRN
JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES AND NWRN VERNON PARISH...WHILE STORM
TOTALS SINCE YESTERDAY ARE NEARLY 7.5 INCHES ACRS THE SAME REGION.
THE OVERALL SVR THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY THANKS TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN
ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS WITH ROTATION TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER TX AND HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST.
SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE AGAIN SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT VIGOROUS UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES/FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT HAZARDS...FLOOD
WATCH...WIND ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PKG WILL BE QPF OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD LATEST HRRR TRENDS WHICH
SEEM TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB ON PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/HIGHER
QPF. THUS...KEPT HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX THIS
EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AS
WELL AS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL QPF TOTALS FM 00Z-12Z
INDICATE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES ACRS SE TX...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL
SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AS IS
ALSO THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE FORCING AND THE TRANSLATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...WHICH CAN
IMPACT WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND TRAINING STORMS SET UP. THIS CAN
RESULT IN HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS THE
WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN ACRS
MULTIPLE AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST...PLACING MORE OF CNTL LA AND THE ACADIANA REGION UNDER THE
HEAVIEST BULLS-EYE. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BANDS OF RAIN BEGIN TO TRAIN
OVER THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN CHCS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT NOT QUITE
COME TO AN END THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE LARGE UPR LOW WEAKENS
AND LIFTS OUT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR
RAIN TO THE EXTREME NRN ZONES. THINGS THEN LOOK TO BEGIN DRYING
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
FETCH OF STRONG SLY WINDS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE GALE WARNINGS LOWERING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GRADUALLY
BCMG MORE SWLY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 67 74 61 74 / 90 80 50 60
LCH 65 74 61 74 / 80 70 40 40
LFT 67 74 63 75 / 90 80 60 60
BPT 64 76 61 75 / 80 60 40 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ052>055-073-074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
042>045-052>055-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
073-074.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ027-030-041-073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ041.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ215.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ215-216.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY
FOR GMZ472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ430-432-435.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
TODAY FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1138 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
HAVE MOVED BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS IS
FURTHER EXACERBATING OUR ONGOING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS AND
ALLOWING SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO REMAIN UNDER
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH WATER RESCUES AND
NUMEROUS ROADS AND HOMES UNDER WATER. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MAY TOTAL AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TX
AND NORTHERN LA. FOR THE UPDATE TONIGHT...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER OUR FAR NW WHERE RAIN HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IS LIKELY TO BEEF BACK UP LATER TONIGHT. ALSO DROPPED
THE SEVERE WORDING AS CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY TAME SO FAR THIS
EVENING IS WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO HAD TO
LOWER NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS AS RAIN-COOLED AIR IS KEEPING OUR TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM ON
THURSDAY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
AVIATION...
STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL ACROSS SOME TERMINALS
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NW LA BUT THESE BREAKS WILL BE TEMPORARY
AS THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. PREVAILED VCSH ACROSS MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINAL WITH TSRA CURRENTLY ONGOING. PREVAILED EITHER
SHRA OR TSRA LATER THIS EVENING...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. OBVIOUSLY
VSBYS WILL BE RESTRICTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MAJOR TO NEAR RECORD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN EAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES HAVE
RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS OF 8 AM CST THIS MORNING
AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO RAIN ALL DAY TODAY. MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD
EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT AND A FEW RIVER AND LAKES ARE ALREADY
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD STAGE LEVELS.
UNFORTUNATELY...MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.
AS OF 2130Z...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CWA IS GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HRRR PLACES
THE AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER WEST. LOOKING AT RADAR LOOPS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOCATED
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 35 AND 45 SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND MORE
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND
GALVESTON ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
WITH A NOTABLE NORTHWARD COMPONENT. UNLESS THERE IS SOME
CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OR
SOME KIND OF MCV DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THESE COMPLEXES...I AM
DOUBTFUL OF THE MORE EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AS
SUPPORTED BY THE ARW AND A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.
THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...I HAVE PLACED THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FROM 00Z-12Z THURSDAY...
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A
DISTINCT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT VALUES...WELL OVER 2 INCHES...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO
10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 2 FEET. THIS WILL ADD TO
AN ALREADY HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING EVENT. WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING FOR SOME TIME AFTER THIS.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT BE OVER.
IF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER STILL EXISTS TONIGHT MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE AND ATLANTA TEXAS...TO MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE CUT OFF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN AS
A KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS
AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE VIGOROUS...SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND MORE
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 61 72 63 73 / 100 90 80 70
MLU 64 72 65 74 / 100 100 80 70
DEQ 59 68 59 64 / 80 80 60 70
TXK 60 68 59 67 / 100 80 70 70
ELD 59 70 62 69 / 100 100 70 70
TYR 60 70 60 72 / 90 70 80 70
GGG 59 71 61 71 / 100 70 80 70
LFK 61 75 61 74 / 100 70 80 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
19/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAINT LOUIS MO
323 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2016
Cancelled the flash flood watch early since the heavy rain never
really materialized, and all short range guidance keeps heavy rain
well south of the area today. Indeed...ensemble QPF prints out a
maximum 1/2-3/4 inch today over far southeast zones for the 12 hour
period between 12Z and 00Z Friday. Can`t see this causing any flash
floding problems today. That being said...RAP/NAM/GFS are showing
some pretty decent frontogenesis in the 850-700mb layer and indeed,
light rain is blossoming on radar at this time. HRRR and WRF
members show light rain for much of the day as well for areas along
and south of I-44/I-70, so have increased PoPs to likely/categorical
in these areas. Think we`ll stay cooler today than the past couple
of days with the clouds and light rain as well as notherly flow
behind the cold front. Stuck fairly close to cooler members of
guidance for highs which puts temperatures in the mid 50s to low
60s.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2016
Most of the rain should shift south of our forecast area tonight as
a surface ridge shifts eastward through the Great Lakes region
and the cold front and the low level moisture is shunted south of
our area. Colder low temperatures can be expected tonight, albeit
still above normal. As the surface and 850 mb ridge shifts east of
the area, southerly return flow will bring back low level
moisture northward through our forecast area Friday night with at
least light precipitation spreading northward as well. A
relatively wet period is expected this weekend as the slow moving
upper level low over the southern Plains opens up and moves
northeastward through our area Saturday night. The threat for rain
will continue Sunday and Sunday night as a second southern stream
upper level low and associated surface low move through AR and
into the TN Valley region Sunday night. Most of the rain
associated with this feature should be over southeast MO and
southern IL. There may be a break in the rain Monday and Monday
night with unseasoanbly warm temperatures. An upper level trough
and associated surface low will move through the region on
Tuesday. The GFS model keeps most of the rain north of our
forecast area, but the ECMWF model is further south with the track
of the surface low and does generate some QPF over the northern
portion of the forecast area. Unseasonably warm weather will
continue for the remainder of the extended forecast with fairly
strong mid-upper level southwesterly flow.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2016
Isolated/scattered showers continue to develop and slide northeast
across forecast area. Kept mvfr cigs/vsbys most locations with
rain through 12z Thursday, then dry things out and lift cigs. By
Thursday afternoon everyone will have vfr cigs. As for winds,
light and variable becoming north and increasing to near 10 kts.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated/scattered showers continue to develop and slide northeast
across metro area. Kept mvfr cigs/vsbys through 15z Thursday,
then dry things out and lift cigs to vfr. As for winds, light and
variable becoming north and increasing to near 10 kts.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.CORRECTION FOR TYPO...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MOVE OUT OF
THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. NONE OF THE
MODELS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDS AND AS CONFIRMED BY
SATELLITE...THE CLEAR AREA ACROSS WYOMING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY
WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE
AFTN.
MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO 700MB AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY HOWEVER
NEITHER THE GFS NOR RAP MODELS SHOW THIS. GIVEN THAT H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 0C...HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO 65 TO 70. THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PRODUCES MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST
AND A LOW PRESSURE TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS MT. LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED. DECOUPLING MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AND THIS
WOULD MOST LIKELY PRODUCE LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SRN AND WRN
NEB...THE PLATTE VALLEYS AND WRN SANDHILLS. AGAIN...NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN GOING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE FORECAST AND
HEADLINES ISSUED.
THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...IT/S MESSY! THE PATTERN FAVORS WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND SPOTTY CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7.
TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH REACHES THE WESTERN COAST. THE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND AND FORCE A CLOSED LOW TO OPEN OVER TEXAS AND MOVE
NORTHWARD. AN AREA OF CHANNELIZED VORTICITY WILL BREAK FROM THIS LOW
AND BACK WEST INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWN BY THE CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
BEING PICKED UP BY THE PACIFIC TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE NEXT TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
IS QUICKLY FORCED EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST
TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF WITH TONIGHT/S RUN FROM THE CLOSED
NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IT SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO...NOW SUGGESTING AN
OPEN WAVE. BUT ALL MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
SUFFICIENT OMEGA FOR QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SPOTTY QPF
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
WHICH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMO TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
ONE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IS PUSHING TO THE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. A SECOND BROKEN BAND IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY LOWER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MOST SITES HAVE ONLY REPORTED AN INCREASE
OF CLOUDS...PRECIP NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND PUSHES EAST AND WILL
NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THE TERMINAL SITES. COOLING TEMPS BEHIND
THE BAND WITH DECREASING CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO WHAT DEVELOPED
LATE LAST NIGHT. KVTN DID SEE IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH THE
BAND OF VIRGA GOING THROUGH...LESS CONFIDENCE REDEVELOPMENT WILL
BE TO THE EXTENT OF THE PREVIOUS DAY. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. WIDESPREAD CLEARING FOR THE MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FRIDAY...DEBATED THE NEED OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH THE WATCH ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES /204...206...208/ WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
AND HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE DUE TO QUESTIONABLE RH. THE HUMIDITY FORECAST
IS BASED OFF OF THE DRIEST/WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /MAV AND WRF-
ARW-WEST/...WHICH PROVIDES THE BASIS FOR A WORST CASE SCENARIO
FORECAST. A EQUAL BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE WORST CASE
MODELS INDICATES MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 20S OVER CUSTER COUNTY...TO THE LOWER MID-TEENS IN WESTERN
CHERRY COUNTY. THE PROBLEM WITH USING THE WORST CASE FORECAST IS
THAT THE LOWEST GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED WELL WHEN THE SFC WIND IS FROM
SW OR IDEALLY WESTERLY. THE MODELS PEG THE SFC WIND FROM THE SW
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT BACKS THE WIND TO
THE SSE DURING PEAK HEATING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...THUS THE WORST CASE FORECAST MAY NOT BE THE BEST
APPROACH AND RH/S MAY BE SEVERAL PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAT WHAT
IS FORECAST. MOST GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF THE NAM SUGGEST THAT 20FT WIND
SPEEDS LOOK LIKE A RFW NO-BRAINER FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT MIXING TRANSPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25-
30MPH TO THE SFC. IT NEEDS TO BE SAID THAT MID HAINES IS A SOLID 5
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POTENTIALLY REACHING 6 LOCALLY...IF
FIRES BECOME ESTABLISHED IN HEAVIER FUELS...PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND LOWER WITH TD/S...OR IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN SSW INTO PEAK HEATING...FIRE HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED
FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES /209...210...219/ AS WELL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1127 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST. TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION...AND
FOG. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL LIFT IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS EVIDENCED BY A CU FIELD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE PANHANDLE AS TOLD BY INVADING ALTOCU/CIRRUS.
KEPT SCHC/ISO MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED LIFT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING CONTINUED
STEEP LAPSE RATES. RAP AND NAM SOUNDING PROFILES RESEMBLE AN
INVERTED V...SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BUT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS
CAPE IS MARGINAL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 300J/KG...AND LIFTED INDEX
IS NEAR 0C.
TONIGHT...FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IMPROVES SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 295K. CONTINUED SCHC RA- ALONG/EAST FROM
KIML TO KBBW THROUGH 12Z. DESPITE MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...TEMP
PROFILES SHOW A LARGE INVERSION AND MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA TEMPS NEAR 7C. ALSO...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS SFC
TEMPS APPROACH 32F...LIMITING THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIP.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG DUE TO PART
PERSISTENCE AND PART FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL MOISTURE AND
WIND FLOW ARE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...WHERE FOG DEVELOPED FROM
KVTN TO KONL AND NORTH. ALSO...NAM AND RAP SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
WHILE SREF HINTS AT SOME NEAR KONL. DROPPED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE
FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE RESUMES AND MID LEVELS REALLY DRY OUT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. 850HPA FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST WITH
TEMPS TOPPING 10C IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS AND 8C
NORTH CENTRAL. HUGGED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH
GENERALLY INCREASED HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. UPPED AN ADDITIONAL
DEGREE FARTHER WEST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AND WARMER AT 850HPA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
MODELS CONTINUE WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WILL USE A BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH
A RISE TO NEAR 15C THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUAL COOL DOWN FROM
MONDAY BUT NOT AS DRASTIC AS THE LAST TWO DAYS. CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MEXICO SYSTEM SHEARING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING CUT
OFF LOW TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IN ITS WAKE. THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR STRONGER WAVE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK. DEPTH OF TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BACK OFF. WILL TREND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWNWARD. IN THE MID TERM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING ON
THE BACKSIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE
KEPT AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. TIMING IN GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT A DAYS
DIFFERENCE AND HAVE BEGUN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON
TUESDAY AND THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
ONE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IS PUSHING TO THE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. A SECOND BROKEN BAND IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY LOWER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MOST SITES HAVE ONLY REPORTED AN INCREASE
OF CLOUDS...PRECIP NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND PUSHES EAST AND WILL
NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THE TERMINAL SITES. COOLING TEMPS BEHIND
THE BAND WITH DECREASING CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO WHAT DEVELOPED
LATE LAST NIGHT. KVTN DID SEE IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH THE
BAND OF VIRGA GOING THROUGH...LESS CONFIDENCE REDEVELOPMENT WILL
BE TO THE EXTENT OF THE PREVIOUS DAY. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. WIDESPREAD CLEARING FOR THE MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HEIGHTENED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. NEAR CRITICAL
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...UNDER 20 PERCENT...ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. WIND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY...BUT FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO WORK EAST. SOUTHERLY 850HPA WINDS APPROACH
30 KTS...AND A LOT OF THAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSPORTED TO THE
SURFACE AS A DEEP MIXED LAYER TAKES HOLD. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE FORECAST ISSUANCES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
352 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
WARMER TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH AND/OR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON (SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW). ANOTHER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
MINOT IS FORECAST TODAY.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH INDICATE VISIBILITIES VARYING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES
ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS THIS
CONTINUING UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TO DEVELOP PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE JUST NOT EXITING THIS AREA. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS ARE WITHIN A
DEGREE TO TWO OF EACH OTHER.
OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS THE MAIN THEME DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION/LEE SIDE
TROUGHING/PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL
MONTANA...AND FULLY EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS (700MB-300MB
LAYER) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND THE
NAM/GFS SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONCUR WITH THIS IDEA AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN WILL RESULT IN
THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS EXCEPT 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 06Z-12 WITH
SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTO THE
WEEKEND THAT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER OF TODAY GETS EVEN WARMER
FOR FRIDAY AND HOLDS FOR SATURDAY. WITH NORMAL AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR THIS TIME OF MARCH AND FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO
70 WE HAVE TO CALL IT WARM.
CHANGES COME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE FLATTENS AND TEMPERATURES COOL.
EVEN THEN...THOUGH...40S FOR HIGHS. CLOSER AGREEMENT IS ALSO BEING
REACHED IN THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
END AS SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ACTS TO CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE MODELS CONVERGING TO A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION THERE IS SOME
DOUBT. OVER THE PAST MONTH SIMILAR SCENARIOS HAVE APPEARED IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH DAKOTA...AT
LEAST THREE TIMES. IN THE END IT EITHER DID NOT MATERIALIZE OR
WAS VERY SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN INDICATED. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS
POINT...BASED ON GUIDANCE AND RECENT HISTORY...I WOULD BE
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT KMOT/KJMS UNTIL 15Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 17 AND 20 PERCENT WILL COVER
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE DECISION WAS TO
NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS BASED UPON
THE FOLLOWING...CRITICAL SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL NOT
VERIFY FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS WHEN COINCIDING WITH A RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT. WE FULLY EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
THAT THE DICKINSON ASOS/33FT WINDS...SHOW 20 MPH...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO ALIGN WITH HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT FOR 3
CONSECUTIVE HOURS. IN ADDITION...PAINTED CANYON AND SAND CREEK
RAWS/20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER...FALLING SHY IN
MAGNITUDE AND TIME NEEDED TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THUS
THE AREAL COVERAGE WHERE CRITICAL WINDS/RH MAY LINE UP FOR A FEW
HOURS IS MINIMAL COMPARED TO A BROADER AREA NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. THIS COULD BEST BE HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK/THE FIRE WEATHER AFD/AND WEATHER STORY TO GET THE MESSAGE
OUT FOR HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IN FIRE DANGER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1157 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRATUS ENCOMPASSING MOST OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SHOWS SIGNS OF AT LEAST IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTH WITH
925MB-850MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. PATCHY FOG CURRENTLY IN THE
FAR NORTH AND THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL IN PREVIOUS
GRIDDED FORECASTS AND WILL CONTINUE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO FOLLOW THE
RAP13 HOURLY TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE NIGHT WHICH REPRESENTS
COOLER CONDITIONS. HETTINGER IS AT 19F RIGHT NOW WITH A DEWPOINT
OF 14F.
NO OTHER CHANGES NOTED. WILL LOOK INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN
TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FOR THURSDAY...WITH DEEP MIXING IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE ON THE LOW
END OF CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE 19-22 UTC RAP/HRRR AND 18 UTC NAM NEST ITERATIONS AGAIN
TONIGHT SUGGEST FOG DEVELOP WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY
FORECASTS...GENERALLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ARCHING
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. OVERALL...THESE MODELS HANDLED THE FOG
WELL LAST NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE SHORT TERM APPEARS QUIET AND MILD...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE...PUT PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE JAMES VALLEY.
TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS NOSING INTO THE PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WARM AIR
ADVECTION. WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND HUMIDITY NEAR 20
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...HAZARDOUS FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MAIN FACTOR
IN DETERMINING EXACTLY HOW SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IS THE
WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WOULD LEAD TO CONDITIONS NEAR
A RED FLAG WARNING. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW TO DETERMINE IF INDEED A RED FLAG WARNING IS
WARRANTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
THE LONG TERM STARTS QUIET AND WARM...ENDS ACTIVE AND COOL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY.
FRIDAY A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S LIKELY.
SATURDAY ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
WARM RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AS OPPOSED TO MIXING
WESTERLY WINDS.
HAZARDOUS FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT SEEM LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN THE MAIN FACTOR WILL BE THE WIND. AT THIS TIME WINDS APPEAR
TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
SUNDAY A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTH. UNFORTUNATELY THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
DIFFERENT STORY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ADDITIONALLY MUCH COOLER AIR IS POSSIBLE BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED FOR KISN/KDIK/KBIS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG
ON TRACK FOR KMOT AND KJMS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR
VSBYS FORECAST BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED NEAR
FLINT...LANSING...AND SOUTH BEND. A STEADY STREAM OF DEEP
MOISTURE WITH GULF ORIGINS IS CONTINUING TO RUN UP THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH PW IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH.
ALOFT AND UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
EFFECTIVE AT BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MOVE THE COLD FRONT ALONG. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ONE WAVE
OF RAIN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE LULL
AND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS HANCOCK AND MARION COUNTIES. OVERALL TODAY EXPECT BETWEEN A
HALF OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...JUST SOME PONDING OF WATER AND SOGGY YARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY...RANGING FROM NEAR STEADY IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER/MID 60S FAR
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONTINUES FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE QUICK PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE BY TOLEDO
BY 6PM AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MAHONING VALLEY BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING RIDGING WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE WEST ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
AIR MOVE IN QUICKLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE
AND DIMINISHING WINDS COULD MAKE FOR FOG POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AIR MASS IS COOLER...BUT NOT COLD AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE MORE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WITH A COOL BREEZE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. EXPECT HIGHS TO
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FRIDAY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE...BUT WARM INTO THE 50S INLAND. SKIES WILL STEADILY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL BETTER
THAN THAT WITH INLAND TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. AS WAS SUSPECTED
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO GET RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE GONE DRY WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. WILL BRING THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO GETS ABSORBED BACK
INTO THE MEAN FLOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY
TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THAT CAN NOT COMPLETELY GUARANTEE A DRY DAY. ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS BEYOND THAT POINT FOR MIDWEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES APPROACHES THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW AS
COLD FRONT...NOW ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN...MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING A
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH FRI MORNING. NON VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN
SAT AND CONTINUING THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY QUITE PERIOD OF MARINE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH NEARLY HALF OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY UNDER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. RAINFALL RATES HAVE EXCEEDED
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS APPROACHING 8
INCHES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE ALL THE WAY INTO EAST
TEXAS. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT BREAK IN INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL
IN DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS...BUT ANOTHER HEAVIER ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPENDED...OR REPLACED WITH AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS JUST
THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY
MINOR BREAKS.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
CURRENTLY...HEAVY RAIN EVENT WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS SETUP IS PUMPING
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM
EAST TEXAS NORTHEAST THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH. A STEADY STREAM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN COVERS MUCH OF THE DELTA ATTM WITH FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT AS A STREAM OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE
REGION. PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES OR MORE ADVECT INTO THE MID-SOUTH
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THIS CONFIRMED WELL BY THE LATEST HRRR DATA. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT SEEMS GOOD ATTM. THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND START TO PUSH IT EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH UP TO ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND 3-4 INCHES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INCLUDING MEMPHIS. SOME PLACES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE OVER
10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA...RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...MAY NOT GET QUITE AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER PICKING UP
MORE. EITHER WAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLACE LIKE
THE CURRENT BOUNDARY HOWEVER GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ON A ISOLATED LEVEL. THE GROUND WILL
BE SATURATED AND RIVER/STREAM FLOWS WILL ALREADY BE HIGH SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER LOW THAT TREKKED
FROM MEXICO IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH ON TO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXIT THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY...DRY AND VERY WARM...MAYBE 80.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM LIFR/IFR AT JBR TO MOSTLY MVFR AND VFR AT THE
REMAINING SITES. BY SUNRISE MEM AND MKL WILL START TO SEE IFR
WEATHER RETURN AS NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP TO LIFR LATE. EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BACK NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5-12 KNOT
RANGE. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TUP EARLY...AND JBR LATE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO INCREASE POP`S GIVEN
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING PRECIPITATION
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR SW
CORNER, AND THE HRRR SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN AREAS WEST OF NASHVILLE, WITH
LIGHTER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALMOST TO THE PLATEAU. OTHERWISE, THE
HOURLY GRIDS ARE HOLDING UP REASONABLY WELL THUS FAR AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
THE RAIN HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.
WHILE CIGS HAVE NOT FALLEN YET...SOME MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE AT KCKV
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO DEGRADE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. IFR IS
LIKELY AT ALL 3 TERMINALS AFTER 00Z/FRI.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE. KCKV IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS A BOUNDARY
HAS SET UP NEAR THE TERMINAL CAUSING WINDS TO TURN TO THE NW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT PERSIST ALL NIGHT...A TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH
MAY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION........UNGER
SHORT TERM......08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A weak surface high pressure in place across the region as the main
frontal boundary remains stationary over the Mid MS valley. Winds
will stay light and variable today as a weak shortwave trough tracks
over the central plains. There has been light showers associated
with this trough in northwest KS this morning. These showers will
try to move into eastern KS, but will encounter a deep layer of dry
air aloft. Have kept a mention of sprinkles in far north central KS
during late morning. Otherwise the main concern today will be high
fire danger as deep mixing takes place during the afternoon. The
upper air sounding from last evening revealed significant dry air
just above the surface, which is not forecasted to change before
mixing today. As the mixing begins this dry air will work towards
the surface causing dew points to drop possibly into the upper 20s.
Normally the RAP excels in these situations therefore have lowered
dew points below most of the guidance and closer to the RAP. This
means the minimum RH values could reach the lower 20 percent range
mainly along and near a line from Herington to Seneca. Luckily the
wind speeds stay generally below 10 mph in these areas. Although
winds will be closer to 15 mph in east central KS, but RH is not
forecasted to drop as low. Given the dry surface conditions though
fire danger will be high during peak heating today. Highs will
approach the upper 60s to near 70 with only high level clouds
possible through out the day. Later tonight not much change in the
overall weather pattern therefore the winds remain light and
variable tonight, and lows are expected to be near 40.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Minimal change to the forecast with the upper low over Texas at the
start of the period on Friday gradually moving north and northeast
through early Sunday. The upper low/trough dampens as it moves
northward, then is kicked to the northeast as an upstream wave move
east into the Southern Plains on Sunday. Moisture will return on
Friday with condensation pressure deficits decreasing during the
afternoon and evening hours in area of isentropic lift in the 290K-
300K layer. Precipitable water values increase rapidly Friday night
to near 1.25 inches. Moderate lift and good moisture transport will
lead to some periods of moderate rainfall. Presence of elevated
instability late Friday night and Saturday kept a chance of thunder
in the east. With the passage of the upper trough Saturday night and
Sunday kept mention of isolated thunderstorms with elevated cape of
a few hundred J/kg and weak to moderate shear. Start to dry out
Sunday night with the weak ridge building over eastern Kansas. Next
trough moves out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains Tuesday
deepening as it moves east. Gulf moisture looks limited with system
as it moves through the Central Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible with mid level moistening and steepening mid level lapse
rates for high based convection. Models also differ on speed and how
quickly cold air will move into the area Tuesday which will affect
high temperatures and have adjusted slightly from prior forecast.
Warmest temperatures look to be on Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 70s. Temperatures overall through the period will remain above
seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR conditions expected through most of the period with the
exception of some MVFR visibilities developing over the next few
hours due to ground fog at TOP/MHK.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1002 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
A FEW SPRINKLES MOVED THROUGH OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE UNTIL THE MAIN SWATH OF
RAIN PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER TODAY. LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
OUTPUT SHOWS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING THE WESTERN
AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOESN/T HAVE THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN ARRIVING UNTIL 00Z. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT
THIS TREND.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES... SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THE 70 DEGREE MARK WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN.
SO HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS SLIGHTLY...EXCEPT FOR IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MORNING TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE AS THE WESTERN CWA
REMAINS QUITE WARM UNDER INSULATING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEYS ARE STILL UNDER ENOUGH DRY AIR THAT TEMPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT COMPARED TO THEIR
NEIGHBORING RIDGES. OTHERWISE...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE NW CWA...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST ROUND OF SHOWERS /CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KY/ TO START MOVING IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. ALSO DID SOME MANUAL EDITING AS WELL. ALL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB. NO NEW FORECAST PACKAGE
IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
8Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. A RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KY...AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES WERE IN PLACE ONCE MORE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. AS THICKER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA...EXPECT SOME OF THESE LOWER VALLEYS TO BEGIN MODERATING A
BIT...LESSONING THE SPLIT BY DAYBREAK.
HI RES MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP SHIELD
MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE AN INITIAL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE NE CWA...BUT THEN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY
JUST WEST OF KY /ITS CURRENT POSITION/ THE PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS CENTRAL KY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN START A SOLID PUSH EASTWARD...AS WILL THE PRECIP
SHIELD...QUICKLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE HIRES ARW AND HIRES NMM ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO SPLIT INTO TWO SPECIFIC LINES AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AND SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT 6 HOUR PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.3 INCHES
/SOME IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES/ THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS WELL...SO INCLUDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH THIS
TIME. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THERE IS A DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERSION...SO LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER.
BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NE
AND MORE NRLY WINDS TO TAKE HOLD. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH
AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER ENOUGH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD KEEP QPF QUITE LIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL...WITH A SIMILAR PRECIP SET UP
/DRY IN THE NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH/.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...STRONG SE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE PRECIP. STRONG WINDS IN THE MID
LEVELS AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH POST FRONTAL...AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR NORTH. NRLY WINDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL...THOUGH
STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL WE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE MID TO UPPER
60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW SHOULD APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME.
THIS TROUGH NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCKY PATTERN AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY NEAR
THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE FIRST CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION WHILE OPENING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS AT MIDWEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AND THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOME QUITE LARGE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW SHOULD BRING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND SOME SHOWERS. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER AS WELL. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD NEAR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY EVENING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
DEPART BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF...IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
WANE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS OF THIS
RIDGE SHOULD MOVE EAST AND OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER ACTIVE AND WET AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WITH 850 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN ABOUT THE 8C TO 14C
RANGE...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MID
MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR MID MAY NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FIRST BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS WHEN DAYTIME WARMING BREAKS THE MORNING
TEMPERATURE INVERSION TODAY. GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AFFECTING AREAS AROUND KIOB AND KSYM BY MID MORNING.
RAIN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE
RAIN AND MVFR VIS AND CIGS /IF NOT BORDERLINE IFR/ DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL LIKELY LESSON UP AFTER
6Z AS BEST RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT COULD STILL HINDER ANY INCREASING VIS WHILE CIGS
REMAIN IFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
735 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Dropping the western tier of counties in Southeast Missouri and a
few more counties in Southwest Illinois (generally west of
Interstate 55) from Flash Flood Watch. Antecedent rainfall and
anticipated rainfall this morning and this afternoon should remain
below flash flood thresholds at this time. Will send an updated
FFA shortly to reflect removed counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Although there will be an elevated band of convection over the
northwest edge of the existing Flash Flood Watch in Southeast
Missouri, trends suggest that this rain will remain below flash
flood thresholds during the day on Thursday. Although I cannot
speak for the dayshift forecast crew, I would not be surprised if
the western edge of the Flash Flood Watch may be reduced in size
over Southeast Missouri, and possibly over more of Southwest
Illinois with time.
The main moisture convergence, instability, and lift will be
effectively shifted along the Ohio River, southwest toward toward
the confluence of the Mississippi River and into the Missouri
Bootheel through the 02z Friday (8 pm CST Thursday). As mentioned
as early as late last week in the Hydrological Outlook, any
significant convection over TN, MS, and AL could briefly disrupt
the moisture flow into West Kentucky, disrupting the gradient of
moisture flux and reduce precipitation amounts. However, this may
impact areas west of the Land Between the Lakes than the
Pennyrile. Last night`s convection over Southwest Kentucky and
extreme Southern Illinois already confirms the saturated nature of
antecedent soil conditions prior to the onset of the rain. This
would tend to support faster runoff with higher precipitation
rates and efficiencies.
The 06z NAM-WRF, 00z Canadian, and 00z 20 km GFS are finally
catching up to the southeastward shift of the main heavy
precipitation axis of the RAP and HRRR. This has been a difficult
transition to move away from Southeast Missouri and Southwest
Illinois, given the multi-day emphasis toward the aforementioned
areas for heavy rain.
The heavy rain should work southward later tonight and Friday, as
the ridging aloft builds in from the southeast and the closed low
over northern Mexico shifts eastward into Southeast Texas,
disrupting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (via the
enhancement of convection in the western Gulf). This should
diminish the overall threat of sustained heavy rain.
However, as the Texas low moves north and opens up, it will bring
rain chances back to the area in earnest Saturday and Saturday
night. Although the coverage will not be as widespread as expected
today, the lift and intensity of the convection (mainly in the
form of rain bands) will be enhanced with the negatively tilted
nature of the low and trough as it works into the Central Plains,
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys.
With respect to temperatures, continued the trend of lower than
previous forecast temperatures due to the widespread rain today.
Blended with minor adjustments for Friday and into the weekend, as
convective activity become a little more scattered and banded with
time.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
We pick up the long term on the tail end of a weekend rain system.
The first wave pulls out Sunday, followed by a lull (but not
disappearance) in pops, before another spike as the main wave moves
across the Tennessee valley. Both waves will present elevated
instability sufficient for the inclusion of thunder, but with one
departing and the other tracking just to our south, the chance will
be slight/isolated at best. Similarly, overall qpf for the weekend
system, ending Monday, should be light with amounts generally less
than a quarter inch.
Monday night-Tuesday looks dry, but a zonal flow pattern will race
then next Low pressure system into the area by Wednesday, and it too
will yield pops including a slight chance of thunder for a couple
days to finish out the forecast.
Temps will continue running above normal for the week with upper 60s
or 70s for highs and generally 50s for lows. Tuesday looks the
warmest.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Expect gradually lowering cigs through the period, with MVFR/IFR
cigs and VFR vsbys prevailing this afternoon. The latest model
guidance suggests conditions deteriorating into IFR/LIFR cigs and
MVFR vsbys tonight and continuing into the morning hours as shower
coverage and intensity increase. Uncertainty lingers in the timing
of the LIFR cigs overnight as the front`s progression has been
difficult for the models to agree on. Will monitor and make
adjustments as needed. Winds will be AOB 10 kts, with the
exception of gusts near KOWB over the next few hours, and will
become variable overnight as the aforementioned front begins its
passage through the local area.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ086-087-
089>094.
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ109>112-114.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for INZ087-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...Meffert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
559 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
8Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. A RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KY...AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES WERE IN PLACE ONCE MORE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. AS THICKER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA...EXPECT SOME OF THESE LOWER VALLEYS TO BEGIN MODERATING A
BIT...LESSONING THE SPLIT BY DAYBREAK.
HI RES MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP SHIELD
MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE AN INITIAL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE NE CWA...BUT THEN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY
JUST WEST OF KY /ITS CURRENT POSITION/ THE PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS CENTRAL KY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN START A SOLID PUSH EASTWARD...AS WILL THE PRECIP
SHIELD...QUICKLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE HIRES ARW AND HIRES NMM ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO SPLIT INTO TWO SPECIFIC LINES AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AND SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT 6 HOUR PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.3 INCHES
/SOME IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES/ THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS WELL...SO INCLUDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH THIS
TIME. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THERE IS A DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERSION...SO LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER.
BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NE
AND MORE NRLY WINDS TO TAKE HOLD. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH
AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER ENOUGH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD KEEP QPF QUITE LIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL...WITH A SIMILAR PRECIP SET UP
/DRY IN THE NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH/.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...STRONG SE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE PRECIP. STRONG WINDS IN THE MID
LEVELS AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH POST FRONTAL...AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR NORTH. NRLY WINDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL...THOUGH
STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL WE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE MID TO UPPER
60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW SHOULD APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME.
THIS TROUGH NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCKY PATTERN AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY NEAR
THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE FIRST CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION WHILE OPENING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS AT MIDWEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AND THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOME QUITE LARGE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW SHOULD BRING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND SOME SHOWERS. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER AS WELL. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD NEAR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY EVENING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
DEPART BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF...IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
WANE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS OF THIS
RIDGE SHOULD MOVE EAST AND OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER ACTIVE AND WET AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WITH 850 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN ABOUT THE 8C TO 14C
RANGE...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MID
MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR MID MAY NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CHANGES
WILL BE ON THE WAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL FIRST BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS WHEN DAYTIME
WARMING BREAKS THE MORNING TEMPERATURE INVERSION ON THURSDAY.
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LATE IN THE DAY...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...AFFECTING
AREAS AROUND KIOB AND KSYM BY 2400. RAIN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD FROM
NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN AND MVFR VIS AND CIGS /IF NOT BORDERLINE
IFR/ TO ROUND OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Although there will be an elevated band of convection over the
northwest edge of the existing Flash Flood Watch in Southeast
Missouri, trends suggest that this rain will remain below flash
flood thresholds during the day on Thursday. Although I cannot
speak for the dayshift forecast crew, I would not be surprised if
the western edge of the Flash Flood Watch may be reduced in size
over Southeast Missouri, and possibly over more of Southwest
Illinois with time.
The main moisture convergence, instability, and lift will be
effectively shifted along the Ohio River, southwest toward toward
the confluence of the Mississippi River and into the Missouri
Bootheel through the 02z Friday (8 pm CST Thursday). As mentioned
as early as late last week in the Hydrological Outlook, any
significant convection over TN, MS, and AL could briefly disrupt
the moisture flow into West Kentucky, disrupting the gradient of
moisture flux and reduce precipitation amounts. However, this may
impact areas west of the Land Between the Lakes than the
Pennyrile. Last night`s convection over Southwest Kentucky and
extreme Southern Illinois already confirms the saturated nature of
antecedent soil conditions prior to the onset of the rain. This
would tend to support faster runoff with higher precipitation
rates and efficiencies.
The 06z NAM-WRF, 00z Canadian, and 00z 20 km GFS are finally
catching up to the southeastward shift of the main heavy
precipitation axis of the RAP and HRRR. This has been a difficult
transition to move away from Southeast Missouri and Southwest
Illinois, given the multi-day emphasis toward the aforementioned
areas for heavy rain.
The heavy rain should work southward later tonight and Friday, as
the ridging aloft builds in from the southeast and the closed low
over northern Mexico shifts eastward into Southeast Texas,
disrupting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (via the
enhancement of convection in the western Gulf). This should
diminish the overall threat of sustained heavy rain.
However, as the Texas low moves north and opens up, it will bring
rain chances back to the area in earnest Saturday and Saturday
night. Although the coverage will not be as widespread as expected
today, the lift and intensity of the convection (mainly in the
form of rain bands) will be enhanced with the negatively tilted
nature of the low and trough as it works into the Central Plains,
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys.
With respect to temperatures, continued the trend of lower than
previous forecast temperatures due to the widespread rain today.
Blended with minor adjustments for Friday and into the weekend, as
convective activity become a little more scattered and banded with
time.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
We pick up the long term on the tail end of a weekend rain system.
The first wave pulls out Sunday, followed by a lull (but not
disappearance) in pops, before another spike as the main wave moves
across the Tennessee valley. Both waves will present elevated
instability sufficient for the inclusion of thunder, but with one
departing and the other tracking just to our south, the chance will
be slight/isolated at best. Similarly, overall qpf for the weekend
system, ending Monday, should be light with amounts generally less
than a quarter inch.
Monday night-Tuesday looks dry, but a zonal flow pattern will race
then next Low pressure system into the area by Wednesday, and it too
will yield pops including a slight chance of thunder for a couple
days to finish out the forecast.
Temps will continue running above normal for the week with upper 60s
or 70s for highs and generally 50s for lows. Tuesday looks the
warmest.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Expect gradually lowering cigs through the period, with MVFR/IFR
cigs and VFR vsbys prevailing this afternoon. The latest model
guidance suggests conditions deteriorating into IFR/LIFR cigs and
MVFR vsbys tonight and continuing into the morning hours as shower
coverage and intensity increase. Uncertainty lingers in the timing
of the LIFR cigs overnight as the front`s progression has been
difficult for the models to agree on. Will monitor and make
adjustments as needed. Winds will be AOB 10 kts, with the
exception of gusts near KOWB over the next few hours, and will
become variable overnight as the aforementioned front begins its
passage through the local area.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ084>094.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ087-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...Meffert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
944 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
LOWERED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE. MAY NEED TO LOWER EVEN MORE...BUT WILL SEE HOW THE CLOUD
COVER EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING SUCH A
CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN COMBINED WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SO DID
NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
UPDATE ISSUED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINED OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TODAY WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL NOT BE OF MUCH HELP. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS IS UP TO 1000FT AND THE MPX/INL
SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE AIRMASS ABOVE
THIS CLOUD IS QUITE DRY. WE DELAYED THE CLEARING QUITE A BIT
TODAY...AND ARE NOT CONVINCED ALL THE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
AS A RESULT WE LOWERED TEMPS TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IF THE LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE TODAY...THEY SHOULD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
00Z SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA TRAILING BEHIND A BROAD SFC LOW AS IT BARRELS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY... BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
SATURDAY ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... ALLOWING TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN MID 60S (AND COOLER BY THE LAKE). A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN COMES 00Z SUNDAY WHEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN...
AND UNORGANIZED DISTURBANCES BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SUNDAY LOOKS WET WITH A P-TYPE OF MOSTLY RAIN WITH 850MB
TEMPS 5-10C. DIURNAL DROPS IN TEMP MAY BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE EXTENDED... THIS
WARM...WET... AND RAINY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER... GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK... WHICH MAY
USHER IN A DRASTIC COLD SNAP AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AND
EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS... SO STAY TUNED. UNTIL THEN... TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
AT 12Z WIDESPREAD STRATUS LINGERED ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND WI IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH... PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
CWA WITH A GREATER SPREAD OF LIFR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN
AND CENTRAL WI. SOME FOGGY CONDITIONS EXISTED IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS
AS WELL WITH VIS DOWN TO 2SM. THE STRATUS WILL LINGER A BIT IN THE
MORNING... BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BY
20Z... IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AND CAUSING WINDS TO GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. VFR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 30 56 38 / 10 0 0 0
INL 37 29 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 48 32 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 43 27 59 41 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 41 28 56 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
607 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
UPDATE ISSUED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINED OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TODAY WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL NOT BE OF MUCH HELP. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS IS UP TO 1000FT AND THE MPX/INL
SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE AIRMASS ABOVE
THIS CLOUD IS QUITE DRY. WE DELAYED THE CLEARING QUITE A BIT
TODAY...AND ARE NOT CONVINCED ALL THE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
AS A RESULT WE LOWERED TEMPS TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IF THE LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE TODAY...THEY SHOULD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
00Z SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA TRAILING BEHIND A BROAD SFC LOW AS IT BARRELS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY... BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
SATURDAY ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... ALLOWING TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN MID 60S (AND COOLER BY THE LAKE). A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN COMES 00Z SUNDAY WHEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN...
AND UNORGANIZED DISTURBANCES BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SUNDAY LOOKS WET WITH A P-TYPE OF MOSTLY RAIN WITH 850MB
TEMPS 5-10C. DIURNAL DROPS IN TEMP MAY BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE EXTENDED... THIS
WARM...WET... AND RAINY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER... GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK... WHICH MAY
USHER IN A DRASTIC COLD SNAP AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AND
EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS... SO STAY TUNED. UNTIL THEN... TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
AT 12Z WIDESPREAD STRATUS LINGERED ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND WI IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH... PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
CWA WITH A GREATER SPREAD OF LIFR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN
AND CENTRAL WI. SOME FOGGY CONDITIONS EXISTED IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS
AS WELL WITH VIS DOWN TO 2SM. THE STRATUS WILL LINGER A BIT IN THE
MORNING... BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BY
20Z... IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AND CAUSING WINDS TO GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. VFR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 30 56 38 / 10 0 0 0
INL 40 29 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 50 32 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 44 27 59 41 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 42 28 56 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
420 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINED OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TODAY WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL NOT BE OF MUCH HELP. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS IS UP TO 1000FT AND THE MPX/INL
SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE AIRMASS ABOVE
THIS CLOUD IS QUITE DRY. WE DELAYED THE CLEARING QUITE A BIT
TODAY...AND ARE NOT CONVINCED ALL THE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
AS A RESULT WE LOWERED TEMPS TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IF THE LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE TODAY...THEY SHOULD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
00Z SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA TRAILING BEHIND A BROAD SFC LOW AS IT BARRELS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY... BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
SATURDAY ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... ALLOWING TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN MID 60S (AND COOLER BY THE LAKE). A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN COMES 00Z SUNDAY WHEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN...
AND UNORGANIZED DISTURBANCES BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SUNDAY LOOKS WET WITH A P-TYPE OF MOSTLY RAIN WITH 850MB
TEMPS 5-10C. DIURNAL DROPS IN TEMP MAY BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE EXTENDED... THIS
WARM...WET... AND RAINY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER... GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK... WHICH MAY
USHER IN A DRASTIC COLD SNAP AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AND
EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS... SO STAY TUNED. UNTIL THEN... TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END VERY QUICKLY AFTER 06Z..AND ONLY LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MENTIONED WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE ARE TO THE EAST. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THURSDAY AT MOST TERMINALS AS LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL INHIBIT MIXING.
HOWEVER..WE DO EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST 16-00Z
TIME FRAME. WINDS AT KINL/KBRD/KHIB EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS VALID PERIOD AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 30 56 38 / 10 0 0 0
INL 40 29 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 50 32 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 44 27 59 41 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 42 28 56 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
508 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MOVE OUT OF
THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. NONE OF THE
MODELS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDS AND AS CONFIRMED BY
SATELLITE...THE CLEAR AREA ACROSS WYOMING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY
WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE
AFTN.
MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO 700MB AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY HOWEVER
NEITHER THE GFS NOR RAP MODELS SHOW THIS. GIVEN THAT H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 0C...HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO 65 TO 70. THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PRODUCES MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST
AND A LOW PRESSURE TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS MT. LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED. DECOUPLING MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AND THIS
WOULD MOST LIKELY PRODUCE LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SRN AND WRN
NEB...THE PLATTE VALLEYS AND WRN SANDHILLS. AGAIN...NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN GOING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE FORECAST AND
HEADLINES ISSUED.
THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...IT/S MESSY! THE PATTERN FAVORS WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND SPOTTY CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7.
TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH REACHES THE WESTERN COAST. THE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND AND FORCE A CLOSED LOW TO OPEN OVER TEXAS AND MOVE
NORTHWARD. AN AREA OF CHANNELIZED VORTICITY WILL BREAK FROM THIS LOW
AND BACK WEST INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWN BY THE CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
BEING PICKED UP BY THE PACIFIC TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE NEXT TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
IS QUICKLY FORCED EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST
TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF WITH TONIGHT/S RUN FROM THE CLOSED
NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IT SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO...NOW SUGGESTING AN
OPEN WAVE. BUT ALL MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
SUFFICIENT OMEGA FOR QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SPOTTY QPF
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
WHICH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMO TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MT/SASKATEWAN THIS AFTN
PRODUCING SOUTH WINDS. HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN MOVING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FRIDAY...DEBATED THE NEED OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH THE WATCH ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES /204...206...208/ WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
AND HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE DUE TO QUESTIONABLE RH. THE HUMIDITY FORECAST
IS BASED OFF OF THE DRIEST/WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /MAV AND WRF-
ARW-WEST/...WHICH PROVIDES THE BASIS FOR A WORST CASE SCENARIO
FORECAST. A EQUAL BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE WORST CASE
MODELS INDICATES MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 20S OVER CUSTER COUNTY...TO THE LOWER MID-TEENS IN WESTERN
CHERRY COUNTY. THE PROBLEM WITH USING THE WORST CASE FORECAST IS
THAT THE LOWEST GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED WELL WHEN THE SFC WIND IS FROM
SW OR IDEALLY WESTERLY. THE MODELS PEG THE SFC WIND FROM THE SW
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT BACKS THE WIND TO
THE SSE DURING PEAK HEATING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...THUS THE WORST CASE FORECAST MAY NOT BE THE BEST
APPROACH AND RH/S MAY BE SEVERAL PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAT WHAT
IS FORECAST. MOST GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF THE NAM SUGGEST THAT 20FT WIND
SPEEDS LOOK LIKE A RFW NO-BRAINER FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT MIXING TRANSPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25-
30MPH TO THE SFC. IT NEEDS TO BE SAID THAT MID HAINES IS A SOLID 5
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POTENTIALLY REACHING 6 LOCALLY...IF
FIRES BECOME ESTABLISHED IN HEAVIER FUELS...PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND LOWER WITH TD/S...OR IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN SSW INTO PEAK HEATING...FIRE HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED
FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES /209...210...219/ AS WELL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
932 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST BLENDED THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NORTH...MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY 2. IT WAS DENSE
AROUND THE MINOT AIR FORCE BASE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THIN LAYER OF ICE
BEING DEPOSITED FROM IT.
OTHERWISE NO EDITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
WARMER TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH AND/OR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON (SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW). ANOTHER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
MINOT IS FORECAST TODAY.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH INDICATE VISIBILITIES VARYING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES
ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS THIS
CONTINUING UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TO DEVELOP PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE JUST NOT EXITING THIS AREA. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS ARE WITHIN A
DEGREE TO TWO OF EACH OTHER.
OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS THE MAIN THEME DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION/LEE SIDE
TROUGHING/PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL
MONTANA...AND FULLY EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS (700MB-300MB
LAYER) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND THE
NAM/GFS SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONCUR WITH THIS IDEA AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN WILL RESULT IN
THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS EXCEPT 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 06Z-12 WITH
SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTO THE
WEEKEND THAT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER OF TODAY GETS EVEN WARMER
FOR FRIDAY AND HOLDS FOR SATURDAY. WITH NORMAL AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR THIS TIME OF MARCH AND FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO
70 WE HAVE TO CALL IT WARM.
CHANGES COME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE FLATTENS AND TEMPERATURES COOL.
EVEN THEN...THOUGH...40S FOR HIGHS. CLOSER AGREEMENT IS ALSO BEING
REACHED IN THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
END AS SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ACTS TO CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE MODELS CONVERGING TO A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION THERE IS SOME
DOUBT. OVER THE PAST MONTH SIMILAR SCENARIOS HAVE APPEARED IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH DAKOTA...AT
LEAST THREE TIMES. IN THE END IT EITHER DID NOT MATERIALIZE OR
WAS VERY SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN INDICATED. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS
POINT...BASED ON GUIDANCE AND RECENT HISTORY...I WOULD BE
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KMOT/KJMS UNTIL 15Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 17 AND 20 PERCENT WILL COVER
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE DECISION WAS TO
NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS BASED UPON
THE FOLLOWING...CRITICAL SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL NOT
VERIFY FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS WHEN COINCIDING WITH A RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT. WE FULLY EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
THAT THE DICKINSON ASOS/33FT WINDS...SHOW 20 MPH...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO ALIGN WITH HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT FOR 3
CONSECUTIVE HOURS. IN ADDITION...PAINTED CANYON AND SAND CREEK
RAWS/20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER...FALLING SHY IN
MAGNITUDE AND TIME NEEDED TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THUS
THE AREAL COVERAGE WHERE CRITICAL WINDS/RH MAY LINE UP FOR A FEW
HOURS IS MINIMAL COMPARED TO A BROADER AREA NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. THIS COULD BEST BE HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK/THE FIRE WEATHER AFD/AND WEATHER STORY TO GET THE MESSAGE
OUT FOR HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IN FIRE DANGER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
627 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NORTH...MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY 2. IT WAS DENSE
AROUND THE MINOT AIR FORCE BASE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THIN LAYER OF ICE
BEING DEPOSITED FROM IT.
OTHERWISE NO EDITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
WARMER TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH AND/OR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON (SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW). ANOTHER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
MINOT IS FORECAST TODAY.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH INDICATE VISIBILITIES VARYING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES
ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS THIS
CONTINUING UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TO DEVELOP PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE JUST NOT EXITING THIS AREA. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS ARE WITHIN A
DEGREE TO TWO OF EACH OTHER.
OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS THE MAIN THEME DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION/LEE SIDE
TROUGHING/PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL
MONTANA...AND FULLY EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS (700MB-300MB
LAYER) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND THE
NAM/GFS SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONCUR WITH THIS IDEA AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN WILL RESULT IN
THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS EXCEPT 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 06Z-12 WITH
SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTO THE
WEEKEND THAT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER OF TODAY GETS EVEN WARMER
FOR FRIDAY AND HOLDS FOR SATURDAY. WITH NORMAL AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR THIS TIME OF MARCH AND FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO
70 WE HAVE TO CALL IT WARM.
CHANGES COME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE FLATTENS AND TEMPERATURES COOL.
EVEN THEN...THOUGH...40S FOR HIGHS. CLOSER AGREEMENT IS ALSO BEING
REACHED IN THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
END AS SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ACTS TO CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE MODELS CONVERGING TO A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION THERE IS SOME
DOUBT. OVER THE PAST MONTH SIMILAR SCENARIOS HAVE APPEARED IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH DAKOTA...AT
LEAST THREE TIMES. IN THE END IT EITHER DID NOT MATERIALIZE OR
WAS VERY SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN INDICATED. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS
POINT...BASED ON GUIDANCE AND RECENT HISTORY...I WOULD BE
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KMOT/KJMS UNTIL 15Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 17 AND 20 PERCENT WILL COVER
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE DECISION WAS TO
NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS BASED UPON
THE FOLLOWING...CRITICAL SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL NOT
VERIFY FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS WHEN COINCIDING WITH A RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT. WE FULLY EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
THAT THE DICKINSON ASOS/33FT WINDS...SHOW 20 MPH...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO ALIGN WITH HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT FOR 3
CONSECUTIVE HOURS. IN ADDITION...PAINTED CANYON AND SAND CREEK
RAWS/20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER...FALLING SHY IN
MAGNITUDE AND TIME NEEDED TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THUS
THE AREAL COVERAGE WHERE CRITICAL WINDS/RH MAY LINE UP FOR A FEW
HOURS IS MINIMAL COMPARED TO A BROADER AREA NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. THIS COULD BEST BE HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK/THE FIRE WEATHER AFD/AND WEATHER STORY TO GET THE MESSAGE
OUT FOR HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IN FIRE DANGER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
659 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. A STEADY STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH GULF
ORIGINS IS CONTINUING TO RUN UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH PW IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE EFFECTIVE AT
BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ALONG. IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ONE WAVE OF RAIN DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE LULL AND ANOTHER WAVE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS HANCOCK AND
MARION COUNTIES. OVERALL TODAY EXPECT BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS...JUST SOME PONDING OF WATER AND SOGGY YARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY...RANGING FROM NEAR STEADY IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER/MID 60S FAR
SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONTINUES FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE QUICK PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE BY TOLEDO
BY 6PM AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MAHONING VALLEY BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING RIDGING WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE WEST ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
AIR MOVE IN QUICKLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE
AND DIMINISHING WINDS COULD MAKE FOR FOG POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AIR MASS IS COOLER...BUT NOT COLD AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE MORE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WITH A COOL BREEZE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. EXPECT HIGHS TO
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FRIDAY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE...BUT WARM INTO THE 50S INLAND. SKIES WILL STEADILY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL BETTER
THAN THAT WITH INLAND TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. AS WAS SUSPECTED
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO GET RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE GONE DRY WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. WILL BRING THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO GETS ABSORBED BACK
INTO THE MEAN FLOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY
TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THAT CAN NOT COMPLETELY GUARANTEE A DRY DAY. ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS BEYOND THAT POINT FOR MIDWEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES APPROACHES THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS THIS COLD FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 10 KNOTS. SOME
POCKETS OF VFR REMAIN ACROSS NE OHIO BUT ALL SITES SHOULD LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR IN STEADY RAIN BY 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS THEN FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NW OHIO. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING SO JUST CONTINUED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST.
THROUGH FRI MORNING. NON VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES AT
TIMES INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY QUITE PERIOD OF MARINE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
632 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT POISED TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH
OF WARM AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY MILD EARLY MORNING FOR MID MARCH...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S AT 10Z.
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
RESPECT TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS...THAT WILL BE
IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW HALF OF PENN THROUGH 21-23Z TODAY. EXPECT
TO SEE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAOO...TO KSEG AND
KHZL. THE SLICE OF COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT ANYTHING IMPACTING THIS AREA SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY THROUGH 21Z BEFORE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREAD SE INTO
THE AREA.
RAINFL AMOUNTS BY 00Z FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 OF AN
INCH OVER INVOF...AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD...TO ZERO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YORK TO HARRISBURG AND LANCASTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE
NORTHWEST...TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGHS SHOULD BE BROKEN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE STATE - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA BY ABOUT 06Z
FRIDAY. PWATS DO GET INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...BUT MODEL QPF IS QUITE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE STATE WHERE THE PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE ONLY SVRL
HOURS AT MOST THIS EVENING. 18-24 HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS EVENT WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NW...AND A
PALTRY ONE TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...MID TO UPPER 40S IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND BETWEEN 50 AND 55 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FRIDAY...1032 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE POOL OF SUB-0.25 INCH PWATS. PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND
EXCELLENT VSBY WILL BLANKET THE REGION FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORIES OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF IN REBUILDING THE RIDGE. EITHER
WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR MID-MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
IFR AT BFD...OTHERWISE STILL VFR AS OF 6 AM.
A FEW SHOWERS AT BFD EARLY TODAY.
EXPECT FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY...AND SATELLITE TRENDS REALLY SHOW LACK
OF COOLING TOPS TO THE WEST...THUS HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING
ON TODAY WITH SHOWERS OR LOW CIGS. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM.
AS NOTED ABOVE...REDUCTIONS LINGER INTO FRIDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...REDUCTIONS EARLY...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. BREEZY SE.
FRI PM-SAT PM...VFR.
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WEDNESDAY WAS A WARM DAY.
HARRISBURG REACHED 79 YESTERDAY. THE OLD RECORD
OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET BACK IN 2000.
WILLIAMSPORT REACHED 80 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 79 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2000.
THE READING OF 70 DEGREES AT BRADFORD TIED THE OLD
RECORD OF 70 DEGREES SET IN 2000.
THE READING OF 76 DEGREES AT ALTOONA BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 71 DEGREES SET IN 2000.
THE READING OF 71 DEGREES AT JOHNSTOWN TIED THE OLD
RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1992.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
545 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT POISED TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH
OF WARM AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY MILD EARLY MORNING FOR MID MARCH...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S AT 10Z.
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
RESPECT TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS...THAT WILL BE
IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW HALF OF PENN THROUGH 21-23Z TODAY. EXPECT
TO SEE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAOO...TO KSEG AND
KHZL. THE SLICE OF COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT ANYTHING IMPACTING THIS AREA SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY THROUGH 21Z BEFORE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREAD SE INTO THE
AREA.
RAINFL AMOUNTS BY 00Z FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 OF AN
INCH OVER INVOF...AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD...TO ZERO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YORK TO HARRISBURG AND LANCASTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE
NORTHWEST...TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGHS SHOULD BE BROKEN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
STATE - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA BY ABOUT 06Z
FRIDAY. PWATS DO GET INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...BUT MODEL QPF IS QUITE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE STATE WHERE THE PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE ONLY SVRL
HOURS AT MOST THIS EVENING. 18-24 HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS EVENT WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NW...AND A
PALTRY ONE TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...MID TO UPPER 40S IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND BETWEEN 50 AND 55 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FRIDAY...1032 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE POOL OF SUB-0.25 INCH PWATS. PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND
EXCELLENT VSBY WILL BLANKET THE REGION FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORIES OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF IN REBUILDING THE RIDGE. EITHER
WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR MID-MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 09Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
06Z TAFS SENT.
A FEW SHOWERS AT BFD EARLY TODAY.
EXPECT FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY...AND SATELLITE TRENDS REALLY SHOW LACK
OF COOLING TOPS TO THE WEST...THUS HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING
ON TODAY WITH SHOWERS OR LOW CIGS. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM.
AS NOTED ABOVE...REDUCTIONS LINGER INTO FRIDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...REDUCTIONS EARLY...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. BREEZY SE.
FRI PM-SAT PM...VFR.
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WEDNESDAY WAS A WARM DAY.
HARRISBURG REACHED 79 YESTERDAY. THE OLD RECORD
OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET BACK IN 2000.
WILLIAMSPORT REACHED 80 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 79 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2000.
THE READING OF 70 DEGREES AT BRADFORD TIED THE OLD
RECORD OF 70 DEGREES SET IN 2000.
THE READING OF 76 DEGREES AT ALTOONA BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 71 DEGREES SET IN 2000.
THE READING OF 71 DEGREES AT JOHNSTOWN TIED THE OLD
RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1992.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT TSRA HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE TERMINALS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT
OVER AREA WITH PERHAPS A SHORT WAVE HELPING ENHANCE NEW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH HRRR MODEL TRENDS NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
DAY.
SFC LOW IN GULF SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST AND LIKELY BETWEEN
THE 42035 BUOY AND PLATFORM KBQX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANGING
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF KCXO. KCXO/KUTS/KCLL LIKELY
REMAIN NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIGS FOR AVIATION. LIKELY HAVE A FULL MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY DEPENDING UPON SHRA ACTIVITY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AFTER 00-03Z THIS
EVENING. TAFS SHOW IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WITH FOG.
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MAYBE SOME SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO S TX.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM THE LOW AND ONSHORE NEAR GALVESTON
ISLAND. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WAS EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND WAS ORIENTED NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NEAR THE SABINE AND INTO EAST TEXAS. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING FROM THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AS FAR WEST
AS HOUSTON AND RANGED NORTHWARD.
RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WAS ABOUT 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. FORTUNATELY...THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT A DECENT CLIP AND WERE ONLY DROPPING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL AT MOST. BEST PW/S WILL LINGER OVERHEAD UNTIL
ABOUT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WITH A SMALL WINDOW LEFT FOR THE FLOOD
THREAT...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. BY MID MORNING EXPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE LATER TONIGHT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW MEANDERING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW FINALLY SHEARING OUT OVER SE...E...
AND NE TEXAS ON SATURDAY. MODEL QPF DID NOT LOOK TO HANDLE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN VERY WELL...BUT DO THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE INLAND OF THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE COVERAGE
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STILL NEED
TO BE COGNIZANT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER COVERAGE UNTIL THE
LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE STATE.
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH A
PACIFIC FRONT MAY BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY.
40
MARINE...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 42019 BUOY SHOULD TRACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW AND THEN
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND N. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR ROUGH SEAS REMAINING HIGH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE
THIS MORNING COMBINING WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. TIDE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT. HIGHER
WATER LEVELS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG BOLIVAR PENINSULA ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH ISLAND AREA NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND
124.
39
CLIMATE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HELPED BREAK TWO RECORD RAINFALL RECORDS
YESTERDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SITE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD
KGLS 2.98 INCHES 1.75 INCHES IN 1880
KHOU 2.91 INCHES 1.72 INCHES IN 2015
NOTE TWO INTERESTING ASPECTS REGARDING BOTH RECORDS. THE CITY OF
GALVESTON HAD A 136-YEAR-OLD RECORD BROKEN...WHILE HOBBY AIRPORT/S
OLD RECORD WAS SET JUST ONE YEAR AGO.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 60 73 56 74 / 60 50 60 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 62 76 60 76 / 60 50 60 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 64 73 63 73 / 50 60 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
605 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT TSRA HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE TERMINALS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT
OVER AREA WITH PERHAPS A SHORT WAVE HELPING ENHANCE NEW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH HRRR MODEL TRENDS NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
DAY.
SFC LOW IN GULF SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST AND LIKELY BETWEEN
THE 42035 BUOY AND PLATFORM KBQX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANGING
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF KCXO. KCXO/KUTS/KCLL LIKELY
REMAIN NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIGS FOR AVIATION. LIKELY HAVE A FULL MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY DEPENDING UPON SHRA ACTIVITY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AFTER 00-03Z THIS
EVENING. TAFS SHOW IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WITH FOG.
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MAYBE SOME SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO S TX.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM THE LOW AND ONSHORE NEAR GALVESTON
ISLAND. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WAS EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND WAS ORIENTED NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NEAR THE SABINE AND INTO EAST TEXAS. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING FROM THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AS FAR WEST
AS HOUSTON AND RANGED NORTHWARD.
RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WAS ABOUT 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. FORTUNATELY...THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT A DECENT CLIP AND WERE ONLY DROPPING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL AT MOST. BEST PW/S WILL LINGER OVERHEAD UNTIL
ABOUT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WITH A SMALL WINDOW LEFT FOR THE FLOOD
THREAT...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. BY MID MORNING EXPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE LATER TONIGHT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW MEANDERING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW FINALLY SHEARING OUT OVER SE...E...
AND NE TEXAS ON SATURDAY. MODEL QPF DID NOT LOOK TO HANDLE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN VERY WELL...BUT DO THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE INLAND OF THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE COVERAGE
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STILL NEED
TO BE COGNIZANT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER COVERAGE UNTIL THE
LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE STATE.
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH A
PACIFIC FRONT MAY BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY.
40
MARINE...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 42019 BUOY SHOULD TRACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW AND THEN
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND N. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR ROUGH SEAS REMAINING HIGH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE
THIS MORNING COMBINING WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. TIDE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT. HIGHER
WATER LEVELS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG BOLIVAR PENINSULA ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH ISLAND AREA NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND
124.
39
CLIMATE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HELPED BREAK TWO RECORD RAINFALL RECORDS
YESTERDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SITE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD
KGLS 2.98 INCHES 1.75 INCHES IN 1880
KHOU 2.91 INCHES 1.72 INCHES IN 2015
NOTE TWO INTERESTING ASPECTS REGARDING BOTH RECORDS. THE CITY OF
GALVESTON HAD A 136-YEAR-OLD RECORD BROKEN...WHILE HOBBY AIRPORT/S
OLD RECORD WAS SET JUST ONE YEAR AGO.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 60 73 56 74 / 60 50 60 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 62 76 60 76 / 60 50 60 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 64 73 63 73 / 50 60 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1010 AM PST THU MAR 10 2016
...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH
BAY...
.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY
AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETS UP AND TAKES AIM AT THE REGION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:09 AM PST THURSDAY...A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH THE HEAVIEST NOW OVER MARIN
AND SOUTHERN NAPA COUNTIES. RAINFALL RATES OF 0.25" PER HOUR AND
UP TO 0.75" AT TIMES. LIGHT RAIN ALSO REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN
FRANCISCO, YET THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. THIS BAND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW THAT IS ACTING AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM OVER THE
REGION. THUS, DO EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS
AND WHERE THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION STALLS. HAVE MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAINFALL
SOUTH OF THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST THURSDAY...AFTER TALKING ABOUT
THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RAIN IS HEADING INTO OUR CWA AND IS NOW BEING PICKED UP BY KMUX
RADAR. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT WILL
TAKE AIM ON OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH BAY.
RAIN WILL RAPIDLY PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES NORTH OF THE CITY
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH AND MOVE DOWN TO SF BAY LATER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY NOT REACH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA UNTIL THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH MANY SPOTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
THE REAL STORY WITH ROUND ONE WILL LIKELY BE THE VERY LARGE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH
YOU TRAVEL. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOME NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN SPOTS
SHOULD BE OVER 6" WITH MANY NORTH BAY COMMUNITIES IN THE 2-4"
RANGE. JUST TO THE SOUTH SF BAY REGION PLUS COASTAL RANGES WILL
LIKELY BE MORE IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH EVEN LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR
THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE BIG CAUTION WITH THE FORECAST IS WHETHER
OR NOT THE MAIN PLUME (PW VALUES NEAR 1.25") WILL SAG FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO GREATLY IMPACT SF BAY REGION DOWN INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWS ANYWHERE FROM 1/2" UP TO NEARLY 3" BY FRIDAY
AT SFO AIRPORT (OPERATIONAL RUN HAS AROUND 1" WHILE THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS A BIT OVER 1.5"). ALTHOUGH THE VERY WET 3" SOLUTION IS
ONLY SUPPORTED BY 2 OF THE MEMBERS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
THAT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
FOR HYDRO PURPOSES, THE MAIN AREA WE REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT ARE
MOSTLY OVER THE NORTH BAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED DURATION OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, RIVERS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE ONLY
RECEDED MODERATE FROM THE VALUES HIT OVER THE WEEKEND SO HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE RIVERS TO QUICKLY
RISE AGAIN. FOR EXAMPLE, THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE PEAKED
AT 22 FEET (AFTER STARTING AT 6 FEET), IS NOW AROUND 15 FEET, AND
IS FORECAST TO PEAK ON SATURDAY AROUND 31 FEET WHICH IS A FOOT
UNDER FLOOD STAGE. CURRENTLY THAT IS THE ONLY RIVER FORECAST TO
HIT MONITOR STAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA, THE HIGHEST RAIN
RATES WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO COULD SEE
PROBLEMS CROPPING UP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE NORTH BAY AND SF SHORELINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT RAIN WILL SWITCH BACK TO SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SANTA CRUZ TO THE SOUTH) ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
SECOND ROUND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A THIRD ROUND FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEITHER THE
SECOND OR THIRD FEATURES APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG, HOWEVER WITH
THE FOCUS REMAINING ON THE NORTH BAY AND LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF BOTH, WE COULD GET MANY REPORTS OF
TREES BEING BROUGHT DOWN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BAY, ALTHOUGH TOTALS FROM ROUND TWO AND
THREE SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THE FIRST ROUND. GENERALLY 2/3" TO
1 1/3" FOR MOST URBAN SPOTS WITH 2-4" FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TOTALS COULD BE NEAR A FOOT FOR
SOME NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN SPOTS.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:55 AM PST THURSDAY... WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS... GUSTY WINDS...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS... AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTH
BAY THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE GREATER BAY AREA INTO
MIDDAY AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO STALL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING. THIS COULD LEAVE PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH AND EAST BAY ON THE FRINGE OF THE WET/DRY LINE THROUGH
TODAY. KMRY AND KSNS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT PUSHING THAT FAR SOUTHWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND... EXPECT
TO SEE A SECOND HEAVY PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN BY
15Z FRIDAY... WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE BAY AREA AND
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 18FRI TO 00Z SAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...RAINY BY 19Z THU. PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH POSBL IFR VISBYS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 04Z FRI THROUGH 15Z FRI AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS
AND BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS AFTER 18Z FRI.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MIXED BAG OF CIGS THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA SHOULD MISS MOST OF
THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN THE BAY AREA ON THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS AFTER
15Z FRI.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:44 AM PST THURSDAY...FOR TODAY... BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS ARE LIKELY TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...NORTH BAY...SF SHORELINE AND
SAN MATEO COAST
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL NOON
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
536 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
LASTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LOW APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY
PASSING NEARBY ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
22Z ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. IN
FACT...IT CAN BE SEEN ON THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSIACS WITH A FINE
LINE OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY`S. THIS BOUNDARY IS JUST MOVING
SOUTH OF ITHACA AS OF 2230Z. THE LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
ON RADAR AND FROM THE HRRR MODEL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING ARE NORTH OF NYC CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. HIGHER POPS THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TO
ENCOMPASS THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR AND HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING BANDS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT. BY 12Z FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA A FEW HOURS
BEFORE ENDING AROUND 14Z.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY/PA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 50S. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. LOWER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF THE NYC METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING WITH ITS CENTER
SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WITH A RETURN SW TO S
FLOW DEVELOPING. LIGHT SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZES...KEEPING COASTAL SECTIONS COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS.
MIXING TO 925MB WITH FULL SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR THOSE AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT AND
STALLS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST...FOR MOST SPOTS...THIS PROBABLY
MEANS NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT WITH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING SOME QPF OUTPUT...HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOME WESTERN ZONES. LOOKS LIKE A DEVELOPING ONSHORE
FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL OFFSET RISING TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...SO HIGHS ON SUNDAY PROBABLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY
OF SATURDAY`S.
A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH THEN APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME SHORTWAVE LIFT BRINGS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AT LEAST TO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RAIN
EVENTUALLY BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER APPROACHES US
MONDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH OR AT LEAST NEARBY ON TUESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS...BUT WOULD THINK THAT SOME
RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WILL
THEREFORE GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH CHC POPS ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE SHOULD THIS
WEAK LOW CENTER PASS OVERHEAD. TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND THE LOW...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND THIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR REGION. WILL GO WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK
SLOWLY SE AND PASS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...FROM 06Z TO TO
09Z.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A MID LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY
LOWERING. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
S/SW WINDS 10-15 KT...VEERING TO THE W/SW THIS EVENING 5-10 KT...
THEN BECOMING NW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS AROUND
20 KT LIKELY AFTER 12Z FRI.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY FROM 180 TO 220.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY FROM 220-250. GUSTS MAY BE
MORE OCCASIONAL.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY FROM 220-250. GUSTS MAY BE
MORE OCCASIONAL.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY FROM 200 TO 230.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI AFT-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...RAIN LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...
ESPECIALLY DAYTIME MON. E WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...
HIGHEST NYC METRO AND COAST.
.TUE...CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
5-7 FT ON THE OCEAN WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON HOW FREQUENT 25 KT GUSTS WILL END UP BEING. SEAS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6PM FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD.
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THEN TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT DUE TO WINDS AND
SEAS...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD SEE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE
WATERS. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES OVER OR
NEAR THE WATERS...AND WITH THE LOW FAIRLY WEAK...SEAS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE ONLY CONCERN. A LINGERING SWELL PROBABLY MAINTAINS 5 FT SEAS
ON THE OCEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/3 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WHERE A QUARTER TO JUST OVER
A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST.
AROUND ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET AT CENTRAL PARK...NEWARK...LAGUARDIA AND
ISLIP TODAY. SEE THE LOCAL RER PRODUCTS FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1141 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A weak surface high pressure in place across the region as the main
frontal boundary remains stationary over the Mid MS valley. Winds
will stay light and variable today as a weak shortwave trough tracks
over the central plains. There has been light showers associated
with this trough in northwest KS this morning. These showers will
try to move into eastern KS, but will encounter a deep layer of dry
air aloft. Have kept a mention of sprinkles in far north central KS
during late morning. Otherwise the main concern today will be high
fire danger as deep mixing takes place during the afternoon. The
upper air sounding from last evening revealed significant dry air
just above the surface, which is not forecasted to change before
mixing today. As the mixing begins this dry air will work towards
the surface causing dew points to drop possibly into the upper 20s.
Normally the RAP excels in these situations therefore have lowered
dew points below most of the guidance and closer to the RAP. This
means the minimum RH values could reach the lower 20 percent range
mainly along and near a line from Herington to Seneca. Luckily the
wind speeds stay generally below 10 mph in these areas. Although
winds will be closer to 15 mph in east central KS, but RH is not
forecasted to drop as low. Given the dry surface conditions though
fire danger will be high during peak heating today. Highs will
approach the upper 60s to near 70 with only high level clouds
possible through out the day. Later tonight not much change in the
overall weather pattern therefore the winds remain light and
variable tonight, and lows are expected to be near 40.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
Minimal change to the forecast with the upper low over Texas at the
start of the period on Friday gradually moving north and northeast
through early Sunday. The upper low/trough dampens as it moves
northward, then is kicked to the northeast as an upstream wave move
east into the Southern Plains on Sunday. Moisture will return on
Friday with condensation pressure deficits decreasing during the
afternoon and evening hours in area of isentropic lift in the 290K-
300K layer. Precipitable water values increase rapidly Friday night
to near 1.25 inches. Moderate lift and good moisture transport will
lead to some periods of moderate rainfall. Presence of elevated
instability late Friday night and Saturday kept a chance of thunder
in the east. With the passage of the upper trough Saturday night and
Sunday kept mention of isolated thunderstorms with elevated cape of
a few hundred J/kg and weak to moderate shear. Start to dry out
Sunday night with the weak ridge building over eastern Kansas. Next
trough moves out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains Tuesday
deepening as it moves east. Gulf moisture looks limited with system
as it moves through the Central Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible with mid level moistening and steepening mid level lapse
rates for high based convection. Models also differ on speed and how
quickly cold air will move into the area Tuesday which will affect
high temperatures and have adjusted slightly from prior forecast.
Warmest temperatures look to be on Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 70s. Temperatures overall through the period will remain above
seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR conditions anticipated. Cirrus will continue to stream into the
area with weak winds. Airmass appears to be dry enough with enough
wind aloft to keep BR from returning in the 8Z-14Z window.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
116 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
THICKER CLOUDS HAVE STARTED MOVING INTO THE REGION SLOWING OR EVEN
COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BEFORE THESE
CLOUDS THICKENED UP...JKL REACHED/TIED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD OF 77 DEGREES. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. ALSO TWEAKED POPS PER LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
A FEW SPRINKLES MOVED THROUGH OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE UNTIL THE MAIN SWATH OF
RAIN PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER TODAY. LATEST HIGH RES MODEL
OUTPUT SHOWS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING THE WESTERN
AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOESN/T HAVE THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN ARRIVING UNTIL 00Z. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT
THIS TREND.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES... SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THE 70 DEGREE MARK WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN.
SO HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS SLIGHTLY...EXCEPT FOR IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MORNING TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE AS THE WESTERN CWA
REMAINS QUITE WARM UNDER INSULATING CLOUD COVER...AND THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEYS ARE STILL UNDER ENOUGH DRY AIR THAT TEMPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT COMPARED TO THEIR
NEIGHBORING RIDGES. OTHERWISE...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT
INTO THE NW CWA...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST ROUND OF SHOWERS /CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KY/ TO START MOVING IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. ALSO DID SOME MANUAL EDITING AS WELL. ALL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD AND THE WEB. NO NEW FORECAST PACKAGE
IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
8Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. A RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KY...AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES WERE IN PLACE ONCE MORE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EAST...DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. AS THICKER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA...EXPECT SOME OF THESE LOWER VALLEYS TO BEGIN MODERATING A
BIT...LESSONING THE SPLIT BY DAYBREAK.
HI RES MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PRECIP SHIELD
MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE AN INITIAL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE NE CWA...BUT THEN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY
JUST WEST OF KY /ITS CURRENT POSITION/ THE PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS CENTRAL KY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN START A SOLID PUSH EASTWARD...AS WILL THE PRECIP
SHIELD...QUICKLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE HIRES ARW AND HIRES NMM ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO SPLIT INTO TWO SPECIFIC LINES AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AND SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM12 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL POINTING AT 6 HOUR PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.3 INCHES
/SOME IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES/ THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS WELL...SO INCLUDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH THIS
TIME. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THERE IS A DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERSION...SO LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER.
BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NE
AND MORE NRLY WINDS TO TAKE HOLD. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH
AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TN BORDER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER ENOUGH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD KEEP QPF QUITE LIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL...WITH A SIMILAR PRECIP SET UP
/DRY IN THE NORTH...SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH/.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...STRONG SE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE PRECIP. STRONG WINDS IN THE MID
LEVELS AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH POST FRONTAL...AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR NORTH. NRLY WINDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL...THOUGH
STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL WE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE MID TO UPPER
60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW SHOULD APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME.
THIS TROUGH NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE BLOCKY PATTERN AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY NEAR
THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE FIRST CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND. THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION WHILE OPENING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS AT MIDWEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AND THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOME QUITE LARGE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW SHOULD BRING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND SOME SHOWERS. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER AS WELL. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD NEAR ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY EVENING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
DEPART BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF...IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
WANE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS OF THIS
RIDGE SHOULD MOVE EAST AND OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER ACTIVE AND WET AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WITH 850 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN ABOUT THE 8C TO 14C
RANGE...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MID
MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR MID MAY NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...GUSTY WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT
SYM...AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS. RAIN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE
RAIN AND MVFR VIS AND CIGS /IF NOT BORDERLINE IFR/ DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. QPF WILL LIKELY LIGHTEN UP AFTER 9Z AS BEST
RAIN WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER...THOUGH SOME FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT COULD STILL HINDER ANY INCREASING VIS WHILE CIGS
REMAIN IFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
538 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
SOUTH GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG FROM HOULTON-
MILLINOCKET ON SOUTH W/METARS SHOWING SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AND BACK ACROSS SW MAINE. NAM12 SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT FOG POTENTIAL RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/WINDS TURNING SE W/RAIN. FURTHER
N, TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN FOR PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
POPS WERE ADJUSTED FURTHER USING THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM
AND NAM12 RUN SHOWING DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE LATER THIS EVENING. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN MILD TEMPS OVER THE
LAST 24-36 HRS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RN AT MOST LCTNS...THEN TRANSITION TO LGT SN
LATER THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT AS COLDER LLVL AIR WORKS S TOWARD
THE DOWNEAST COAST AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM CNTRL NEW ENG TO ALG
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF ME. FURTHER N...IT SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS LGT SN LATER THIS EVE.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS...WHICH
FOLLOWED SUITE WITH THE 06Z RUN...INDICATES SEPARATE BANDING OF
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER QPF ARND 04-08Z OVR NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY FROM THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST. OTHER MODELS DO NOT
SHOW THIS BAND AS MUCH. THE FEATURES THAT APPEAR TO BE DRIVING
THIS SEPARATE BAND IS THE INVERTED SFC TROF XTNDG WELL N OF THE
SFC LOW AND UPPER LVL DVRG WITH A DEPARTING STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK AS INDICATED AT 250MB. IT LOOKS TO US THAT THE BEST UPPER
LVL DVRG MAY BE JUST S OF WHERE THE 12Z GFS RUN SHOWS THIS BAND...
AND FOR THE TM BEING...THIS IS BEING BACKED UP BY THE THE
PROGRESSION OF SIM RADAR REF...WHICH SHOWS A SHARP CUT-OFF
OF REF N OF PQI LATER THIS EVE INTO THE LATE NGT.
SO FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS SIG ACROSS THE FAR N FOR TNGT FROM
THE PREV FCST...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF PSN OF ANY MESO-
BANDING...HELD OFF ON TAKING THE 12Z GFS FCST QPF FOR FAR NE
AROOSTOOK COUNTY TO LITERALLY INTO THE FCST ATTM...AND SHOW
A SIG DROP OFF IN QPF EQUIV FROM PQI TO VAN BUREN. CANNOT RULE
BANDING LATER TNGT OVR NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z
GFS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER S THAN THE XTRM
NE. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANY
BANDING OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA WHILE THE 15Z SREF RUN HINTS AT
BANDING OVR THE NE FROM ASHLAND TO KPQI. IF BANDING DOES OCCUR...
FCST SNFL COULD LOCALLY BE DOUBLE OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE THAN
WHAT WE CURRENTLY SHOW FOR PTNS OF THE NE.
OTHERWISE...STEADY SN SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY OVR THE N LATE TNGT
WITH RN OR RN/LGT SN MIXED CHGNG TO ALL LGT SN OVR CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS BEFORE ENDING FRI MORN...WITH ARND AN INCH OR TWO
OF ACCUMULATION...WITH LESS OVR COASTAL AND WRN DOWNEAST AREAS.
SKIES WILL THEN BECOME PTLY SUNNY N AND MSLY SUNNY S BY MID TO
LATE AFTN FRI...WITH FAIRLY MILD HI TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER THIS RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM QUEBEC WHICH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY. THE SNOW WILL BECOME A WINTRY
MIX ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE ST JOHN RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CROWN MAINE MAY STAY UNSETTLED ON WEDNESDAY AT THE TOP OF A
RIDGE AXIS WHILE DOWNEAST MAINE DRIES OUT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY PUSHES A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR CLGS/VSBYS LATER THIS EVE
IN SN NORTH AND RN AND SN SOUTH...XCPT PERHAPS AT KFVE WHERE MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TNGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NW TO SE LATE
TNGT INTO THU TO MVFR AND THEN VFR LATE.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS CNTR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE
PRECIP WILL BECOME A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FZRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ATTM WITH WINDS AND WVS BLO SCA THRESHOLDS
TNGT AND THU. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THIS
PD.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/BERDES
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/BERDES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY... THIS SHOULD
CLEAR THE SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A STORM SYSTEM COMING
AT US FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MERGE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
STATES...BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FINALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...YET ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWER BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IT
WILL BRING BACK THE COLD AIR BY THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
OUR BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW QUICKLY DO THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE SOONER THEY DO...THE COLDER IT WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING THAT SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF STATES AND SEE HOW MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE GETS TO MICHIGAN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SEE THE EXTEND DISCUSSION FOR THAT).
AS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT TYPICALLY ARE
GOOD AT PURGING THEM OUT OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SKIES. THOSE WOULD
BE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET (UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC) AND SURFACE WINDS TURN ANTICYCONIC. BOTH OF THOSE
THINGS HAPPEN TONIGHT. CURIOSLY IF ONE OVERLAYS THE POLAR JET
OVER THE CLOUD IMAGES ONE CAN SEE HOW AS THE UPPER JET MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA... THE LOW CLOUDS DO IN FACT CLEAR OUT (SEE NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM). THE UPPER JET CROSSES OUR AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME ANTICYCLONIC ABOUT THE
SAME TIME. BOTH THE RAP MODEL (WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
SKY TONIGHT) AND THE NAM...WHICH CLEARS SKIES WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT
DO SHOW THE SKIES BEING CLEAR BY MORNING.
ANYWAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY THEN MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
HEAD OUR WAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. ANY RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. AS THERE IS
TO MUCH DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT UP
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAKNESS
IN THE STABILITY...LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE ALL SUPPORT HIGH POPS.
WILL RAISE THE POPS AND INCREASE THE QPF FOR THIS FEATURE.
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWAT VALUES
UP OVER AN INCH...AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. AT THIS POINT WILL INCREASE
POPS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY...SO THAT WILL BE THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST RISK FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
A PACIFIC MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVING EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME DECENT DYNAMICS AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL KEEP A RISK FOR SHOWERS
GOING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
WHILE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO PERSIST IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TODAY...THE OVERALL TREND SUPPORTS KEEPING THE
FORECAST GOING TOWARDS VFR. THE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FOR
THE MOST PART THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
RISING...THAT WILL HELP TO LOWER THE SURFACE HUMIDITY AND ACT TO
DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT SOMEWHAT. KJXN COULD STILL SEE AN HR OR TWO
OF IFR.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT CLOSELY. A RISK
FOR THE IFR TO RETURN EXISTS. THE OPPOSITE HAPPENS TONIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF AN RH INCREASING. WE COULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING. NOT CERTAIN THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT I
WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FEATURE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT 60
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN MEANS LIGHT WINDS. THE SYSTEMS
MOVING TOWARD US SATURDAY WILL NOT HAVE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG THEN EITHER. SO...BOTTOM LINE
I SEE NO HEADLINE THREAT TILL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
A HANDFULL OF RIVERS ARE STILL DEALING WITH LOWLAND FLOODING. MOST
ARE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD PROLONG THE DURATION THAT SOME RIVERS SPEND
ABOVE BANKFULL... BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO WORSEN THE EXTENT OF
THE FLOODING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
LOWERED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE. MAY NEED TO LOWER EVEN MORE...BUT WILL SEE HOW THE CLOUD
COVER EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING SUCH A
CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN COMBINED WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SO DID
NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
UPDATE ISSUED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINED OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TODAY WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL NOT BE OF MUCH HELP. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS IS UP TO 1000FT AND THE MPX/INL
SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE AIRMASS ABOVE
THIS CLOUD IS QUITE DRY. WE DELAYED THE CLEARING QUITE A BIT
TODAY...AND ARE NOT CONVINCED ALL THE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
AS A RESULT WE LOWERED TEMPS TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IF THE LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE TODAY...THEY SHOULD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
00Z SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA TRAILING BEHIND A BROAD SFC LOW AS IT BARRELS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY... BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
SATURDAY ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... ALLOWING TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN MID 60S (AND COOLER BY THE LAKE). A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN COMES 00Z SUNDAY WHEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN...
AND UNORGANIZED DISTURBANCES BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SUNDAY LOOKS WET WITH A P-TYPE OF MOSTLY RAIN WITH 850MB
TEMPS 5-10C. DIURNAL DROPS IN TEMP MAY BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE EXTENDED... THIS
WARM...WET... AND RAINY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER... GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK... WHICH MAY
USHER IN A DRASTIC COLD SNAP AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AND
EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS... SO STAY TUNED. UNTIL THEN... TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS TERMINALS FORECAST. THE FIRST ONE IS
THE LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS OF
17Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT TO BE
AMENDING AS TRENDS CLARIFY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THEN...WITH THE
SNOWPACK CONTINUING TO MELT TODAY...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD...EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS TO THE TERMINAL FORECASTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF TIMING OR SPECIFIC REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES AS THIS IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW FAR THE CLOUDS
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 30 56 38 / 10 0 0 0
INL 37 29 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 48 32 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 43 27 59 41 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 41 28 56 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1116 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MOVE OUT OF
THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. NONE OF THE
MODELS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDS AND AS CONFIRMED BY
SATELLITE...THE CLEAR AREA ACROSS WYOMING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY
WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE
AFTN.
MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO 700MB AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY HOWEVER
NEITHER THE GFS NOR RAP MODELS SHOW THIS. GIVEN THAT H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 0C...HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO 65 TO 70. THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PRODUCES MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST
AND A LOW PRESSURE TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS MT. LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED. DECOUPLING MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AND THIS
WOULD MOST LIKELY PRODUCE LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SRN AND WRN
NEB...THE PLATTE VALLEYS AND WRN SANDHILLS. AGAIN...NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN GOING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE FORECAST AND
HEADLINES ISSUED.
THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...IT/S MESSY! THE PATTERN FAVORS WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND SPOTTY CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7.
TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH REACHES THE WESTERN COAST. THE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND AND FORCE A CLOSED LOW TO OPEN OVER TEXAS AND MOVE
NORTHWARD. AN AREA OF CHANNELIZED VORTICITY WILL BREAK FROM THIS LOW
AND BACK WEST INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWN BY THE CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
BEING PICKED UP BY THE PACIFIC TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE NEXT TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
IS QUICKLY FORCED EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST
TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF WITH TONIGHT/S RUN FROM THE CLOSED
NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IT SUGGESTED 24 HOURS AGO...NOW SUGGESTING AN
OPEN WAVE. BUT ALL MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
SUFFICIENT OMEGA FOR QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SPOTTY QPF
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
WHICH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMO TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP
FRIDAY MORNING... WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FRIDAY...DEBATED THE NEED OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH THE WATCH ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES /204...206...208/ WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
AND HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE DUE TO QUESTIONABLE RH. THE HUMIDITY FORECAST
IS BASED OFF OF THE DRIEST/WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /MAV AND WRF-
ARW-WEST/...WHICH PROVIDES THE BASIS FOR A WORST CASE SCENARIO
FORECAST. A EQUAL BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE WORST CASE
MODELS INDICATES MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 20S OVER CUSTER COUNTY...TO THE LOWER MID-TEENS IN WESTERN
CHERRY COUNTY. THE PROBLEM WITH USING THE WORST CASE FORECAST IS
THAT THE LOWEST GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED WELL WHEN THE SFC WIND IS FROM
SW OR IDEALLY WESTERLY. THE MODELS PEG THE SFC WIND FROM THE SW
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT BACKS THE WIND TO
THE SSE DURING PEAK HEATING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...THUS THE WORST CASE FORECAST MAY NOT BE THE BEST
APPROACH AND RH/S MAY BE SEVERAL PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAT WHAT
IS FORECAST. MOST GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF THE NAM SUGGEST THAT 20FT WIND
SPEEDS LOOK LIKE A RFW NO-BRAINER FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT MIXING TRANSPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25-
30MPH TO THE SFC. IT NEEDS TO BE SAID THAT MID HAINES IS A SOLID 5
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POTENTIALLY REACHING 6 LOCALLY...IF
FIRES BECOME ESTABLISHED IN HEAVIER FUELS...PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND LOWER WITH TD/S...OR IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN SSW INTO PEAK HEATING...FIRE HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED
FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES /209...210...219/ AS WELL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
303 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. THOUGH
IT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER BACK INTO
THE PICTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE, FROM NEAR THE NY/PA
LINE SOUTH. THROUGH TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OVER NORTHER
NY WILL SAG SOUTH, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THE
RESULT WILL BE STEADY RAIN SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA. RAIN LOOKS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BY 06Z, AND
AFTER 09Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. I CONTINUED WITH A 20% TO 30%
CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
SYRACUSE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIM CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. WE HAVE
TONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, THE
QUESTION IS LIFT. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED LIFT THROUGH 10Z SO I
CONTINUED THIS MENTION OF LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY FRIDAY.
THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE A FIGHT FOR SUNSHINE. IT LOOKS FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH MIXING HELPING FOR MORE SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS US A GREAT DAY SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS REBOUNDING. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST
AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH. EVERYONE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, WITH A FAIRLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER STILL LOOK TO BE SLOW TO ARRIVE, WITH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST STILL MOST AT RISK FOR LATE DAY RAINS. THE BEST CHANCE
BY FAR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD INDICATING A MILD BUT SHOWERY PERIOD. INITIALLY
RETURN FLOW A BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES AND SFC WARM FRONT IN THE
VCNTY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AREA COULD BE PRIMARILY
DRY AS WE RESIDE BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE NEXT SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH DAILY AVERAGES RUNNING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BY 12Z. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE LOW MVFR/IFR CATEGORY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CIGS. AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AFTN TO SUN...HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY VFR.
SUN NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE UP TO ONE INCH COULD FALL. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF TONIGHT AND MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SOME WET SNOW BEFORE
ENDING WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EST THURSDAY...THE AREA OF RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION AS I TYPE. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN 0.10" OR SO
ACROSS AREAS TO THE WEST OF HERE. MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING A
REASONABLE JOB SO FAR. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE POP COVERAGE
USING MIX OF HRRR AND BTV WRF RUNS, AND HAVE UPPED THE POPS A BIT
MORE CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. LOOKS WE`LL ALL GET RAIN.
FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD RANGE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.8" RANGE
(LOWEST NORTH AND HIGHER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS). STILL
ANTICIPATE RISES ON RIVERS, BUT THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE.
THE REMAINING SNOW WE HAVE IS PRIMARILY IN FAR NORTHERN VERMONT
AND NEW YORK, WHERE THERE IS 1-2" OR SO OF LIQUID LOCKED UP IN THE
SNOW. SNOWMELT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST LESS THAN 1/2" OF LIQUID WILL
BE RELEASED, WHICH WON`T RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ON TOP
OF THE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER TRICKY AS A FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY
54F IN BURLINGTON AND IT`S 42 UP IN HIGHGATE VT. THUS A FRONT
LURKS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING (HOWEVER, COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY
OOZE SOUTH DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT, AND AS IT PASSES TO OUR EAST, WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND PUSH THE FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH. HAVE
POPULATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES USING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (BTV
4KM SEEMED TO CAPTURE THINGS THE BEST).
STILL SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW
COVERED GROUND. INTERESTING TO WATCH THE FOG DEVELOP OVER LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND PUSH SOUTHWARD VIA WEB CAMS AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN, WITH 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 0C BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR AS TO WHETHER THE RAIN WILL END
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW (OR RAIN/SNOW MIX). LOOKS LIKE WE`LL
HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NORTHERN NY BEGINNING
ABOUT 01Z AND NORTHERN VERMONT BEGINNING 03-05Z OR SO. NO
NOTEWORTHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND ANYTHING WOULD LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO JUST GRASSY SURFACES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ULTIMATELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S (HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) TO MID 30S (SOUTHERN VALLEYS) BY DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS, PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS DURING THE
MORNING. THEN CLEARING OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. 925MB TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND -1C IN THE SOUTH TO -4C IN THE NORTH. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 40S/CLOSE TO 50 IN THE
SOUTH, AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME 20 KNOTS OR SO OF WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER, SO IT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT TIMES (GUSTS 20-25 MPH)
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EST THURSDAY...WINDS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET
FRIDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 25-30F RANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS CENTER OF SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY...WILL ALREADY SEE SOME S-SW RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +3 TO +4C. SHOULD ALLOW
VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST SECTIONS FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY. POPS NIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EST THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY SHOWN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE 00Z CYCLE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT BUILDING
MID- LEVEL HEIGHTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION ENEWD
INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
SRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LOW-MID 50S FOR SUNDAY. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM SW-NE AS WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND INCREASING MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SW. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/QG FORCING BRINGS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POTENTIALLY FOR MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
HAVE GENERALLY SHOWN POPS 50-60 PERCENT MONDAY...WITH SOME RAIN OR
SHOWER ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY PERSISTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
OVERALL...LOOKING AT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS
PATTERN...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY UPR 40S WITH
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN MONDAY...THEN POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW-
MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW-MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
PERSISTING. THESE HIGH TEMP READINGS GENERALLY 12-15DEG ABOVE MID-
MARCH CLIMO AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING IFR ACROSS THE REGION
AS RAIN MOVES IN. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY MUCH OF DAY. HAVE ADDITIONAL FOG FORMING OVER LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND PUSHING SOUTHWARD. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT WILL
SPREAD OUT FROM THE LAKE ENOUGH TO NEGATIVELY AFFECT BOTH BTV AND
PBG. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY SHOWN VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3SM AT
THOSE LOCATIONS, BUT IF IT DOES EXPAND BEYOND THE LAKE, WE COULD
SEE VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE A STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO
THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. COULD
END AS A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH MVFR
(CEILINGS) TO VFR AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z MON: VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z MON ONWARD: CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM A QUARTER INCH TO THE NORTH TO
NEAR AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WHICH IS A BLEND OF MODELS. A FEW
MEMBERS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE CONTINUED RISES ON WATERWAYS AND LOTS OF
STANDING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LATER TODAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
HEADWATER AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGEST ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING. THAT`S ABOUT DOUBLE WHAT WE
EXPECT AT THIS POINT. THERE IS SOME LIMITED SNOW MELT STILL
OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WE`VE SEEN RISES ON SOME RIVERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY, THE AREAS THAT ARE LIKELY TO
SEE MORE RAIN ARE IN THE SOUTH SO AS LONG AS WE DON`T GET 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WE SHOULD AVOID FLOODING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LINGERING IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CLEARING WITH
THE 18Z RUN...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO ROSEAU
AREAS BY SUNSET. TRIMMED HIGHS/EVENING TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE OR
NOT BEFORE SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE OR NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM FRIDAY AS TEMPS WILL
START OUT WARM WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THE RECORDS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...SO EXPECTING TO BREAK THOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S IN THE GRAND FORKS AND FARGO AREAS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ALSO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THE WARM AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S (NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS) TO 60S ELSEWHERE. A PAIR OF UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
(SOUTH). INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK...WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER SUN
NIGHT. 12Z GFS LESS STABLE THAN 00Z ECMWF...WITH NEG SHOWALTERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S...AND ELECT TO NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR SUN NIGHT.
MID WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH THE ECWMF STALLING THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WHEREAS THE GFS LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW INTO CNTRL TO ERN ONTARIO BY 00Z THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL
START OUT AS RAIN TUESDAY AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MID WEEK AS COLDER
AIR IS PULLED IN BEHIND THE LOW. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TRACK OF
SYSTEM AND WHEN THICKNESS VALUES WILL BEGIN TO FALL OFF...BUT
SUPERBLEND SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS-ECMWF.
EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME DECENT MOISTURE...HOWEVER A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT MOVING EAST TO WEST COULD LEAVE ERN ND MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTN HOURS TODAY.
THERE IS A HOLE SOUTHWEST OF BJI BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...AND IT SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SCATTER OUT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT A MINIMUM SOME TEMPO IFR CONDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTN. GFK/TVF WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT...BUT
SHOULD BE VFR BY SUNSET. FAR COULD CLEAR OUT IN THE LATE AFTN HOUR
DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS PICK UP...BUT GENERALLY THE
21Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME FOR ALL SITES IN AND ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME
BREEZY BY 18Z FRIDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. AS FAR AS
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WINDS HAVE BEEN OVER PERFORMING A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. TEMPERATURES ARE
PERFORMING CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN
UNDER PERFORMING SO FAR...BUT COULD STILL DROP YET AS WE GET INTO
OUR BEST MIXING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES
ARE CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING
GLEN ULLIN UP TO HAZEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST BLENDED THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NORTH...MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY 2. IT WAS DENSE
AROUND THE MINOT AIR FORCE BASE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THIN LAYER OF ICE
BEING DEPOSITED FROM IT.
OTHERWISE NO EDITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
WARMER TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH AND/OR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON (SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW). ANOTHER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
MINOT IS FORECAST TODAY.
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH INDICATE VISIBILITIES VARYING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES
ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS THIS
CONTINUING UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TO DEVELOP PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE JUST NOT EXITING THIS AREA. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS ARE WITHIN A
DEGREE TO TWO OF EACH OTHER.
OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS THE MAIN THEME DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION/LEE SIDE
TROUGHING/PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL
MONTANA...AND FULLY EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS (700MB-300MB
LAYER) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND THE
NAM/GFS SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONCUR WITH THIS IDEA AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN WILL RESULT IN
THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS EXCEPT 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 06Z-12 WITH
SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTO THE
WEEKEND THAT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER OF TODAY GETS EVEN WARMER
FOR FRIDAY AND HOLDS FOR SATURDAY. WITH NORMAL AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR THIS TIME OF MARCH AND FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO
70 WE HAVE TO CALL IT WARM.
CHANGES COME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE FLATTENS AND TEMPERATURES COOL.
EVEN THEN...THOUGH...40S FOR HIGHS. CLOSER AGREEMENT IS ALSO BEING
REACHED IN THAT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
END AS SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ACTS TO CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE MODELS CONVERGING TO A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION THERE IS SOME
DOUBT. OVER THE PAST MONTH SIMILAR SCENARIOS HAVE APPEARED IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH DAKOTA...AT
LEAST THREE TIMES. IN THE END IT EITHER DID NOT MATERIALIZE OR
WAS VERY SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN INDICATED. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS
POINT...BASED ON GUIDANCE AND RECENT HISTORY...I WOULD BE
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE OVER KDIK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 17 AND 20 PERCENT WILL COVER
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE DECISION WAS TO
NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS BASED UPON
THE FOLLOWING...CRITICAL SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL NOT
VERIFY FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS WHEN COINCIDING WITH A RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT. WE FULLY EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
THAT THE DICKINSON ASOS/33FT WINDS...SHOW 20 MPH...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO ALIGN WITH HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT FOR 3
CONSECUTIVE HOURS. IN ADDITION...PAINTED CANYON AND SAND CREEK
RAWS/20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER...FALLING SHY IN
MAGNITUDE AND TIME NEEDED TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THUS
THE AREAL COVERAGE WHERE CRITICAL WINDS/RH MAY LINE UP FOR A FEW
HOURS IS MINIMAL COMPARED TO A BROADER AREA NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. THIS COULD BEST BE HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK/THE FIRE WEATHER AFD/AND WEATHER STORY TO GET THE MESSAGE
OUT FOR HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IN FIRE DANGER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1235 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO EXPAND A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS AT TIMES IN THE
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 630 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. A STEADY STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH GULF
ORIGINS IS CONTINUING TO RUN UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH PW IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE EFFECTIVE AT
BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ALONG. IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ONE WAVE OF RAIN DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE LULL AND ANOTHER WAVE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS HANCOCK AND
MARION COUNTIES. OVERALL TODAY EXPECT BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS...JUST SOME PONDING OF WATER AND SOGGY YARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY...RANGING FROM NEAR STEADY IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER/MID 60S FAR
SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONTINUES FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE QUICK PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE BY TOLEDO
BY 6PM AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MAHONING VALLEY BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING RIDGING WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE WEST ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
AIR MOVE IN QUICKLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE
AND DIMINISHING WINDS COULD MAKE FOR FOG POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AIR MASS IS COOLER...BUT NOT COLD AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE MORE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WITH A COOL BREEZE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. EXPECT HIGHS TO
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FRIDAY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE...BUT WARM INTO THE 50S INLAND. SKIES WILL STEADILY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL BETTER
THAN THAT WITH INLAND TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. AS WAS SUSPECTED
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO GET RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE GONE DRY WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. WILL BRING THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO GETS ABSORBED BACK
INTO THE MEAN FLOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY
TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THAT CAN NOT COMPLETELY GUARANTEE A DRY DAY. ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS BEYOND THAT POINT FOR MIDWEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES APPROACHES THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 800FT AND VSBYS AS LOW AS 3SM. KTOL
WILL SEE THE EARLIEST IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR STARTING AROUND 02Z. THE
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL IFR
CEILINGS OR SOME GROUND FOG LATE. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AS A STRATUS DECK HANGS AROUND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AROUND 14Z AND VFR COME BACK INTO PLACE.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES AT TIMES INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY QUITE PERIOD OF MARINE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1215 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT TO THE EAST AT
THIS TIME. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO DURING THE DAY TODAY. SO...WILL MAKE SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. AS COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 630 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. A STEADY STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH GULF
ORIGINS IS CONTINUING TO RUN UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH PW IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE EFFECTIVE AT
BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ALONG. IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ONE WAVE OF RAIN DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE LULL AND ANOTHER WAVE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS HANCOCK AND
MARION COUNTIES. OVERALL TODAY EXPECT BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS...JUST SOME PONDING OF WATER AND SOGGY YARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY...RANGING FROM NEAR STEADY IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER/MID 60S FAR
SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONTINUES FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE QUICK PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE BY TOLEDO
BY 6PM AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MAHONING VALLEY BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING RIDGING WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE WEST ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
AIR MOVE IN QUICKLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE
AND DIMINISHING WINDS COULD MAKE FOR FOG POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AIR MASS IS COOLER...BUT NOT COLD AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE MORE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WITH A COOL BREEZE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. EXPECT HIGHS TO
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FRIDAY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE...BUT WARM INTO THE 50S INLAND. SKIES WILL STEADILY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL BETTER
THAN THAT WITH INLAND TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. AS WAS SUSPECTED
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO GET RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE GONE DRY WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. WILL BRING THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO GETS ABSORBED BACK
INTO THE MEAN FLOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY
TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THAT CAN NOT COMPLETELY GUARANTEE A DRY DAY. ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS BEYOND THAT POINT FOR MIDWEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES APPROACHES THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 800FT AND VSBYS AS LOW AS 3SM. KTOL
WILL SEE THE EARLIEST IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR STARTING AROUND 02Z. THE
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL IFR
CEILINGS OR SOME GROUND FOG LATE. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AS A STRATUS DECK HANGS AROUND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AROUND 14Z AND VFR COME BACK INTO PLACE.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES AT TIMES INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY QUITE PERIOD OF MARINE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC/JAMISON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
602 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS COVERING ALL BUT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH THROUGH NW MTNS AND INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS INDICATED BY AN
EXTREMELY NCFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PREV TIMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVR KBFD AT 2245Z...WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM OBS AND NR TERM
MDL DATA SUGGEST RAIN/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KBFD THRU AT LEAST
EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY ARND 03Z AS
RAIN TAPERS OFF AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER NW FLOW ARRIVES. FURTHER
SOUTH...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 01Z-07Z AS PLUME OF PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/REDUCED CIGS WITH
PASSAGE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY MVFR
REDUCTIONS...OCCURRING BTWN 00Z-07Z AT KIPT/KAOO/KUNV AND POSSIBLY
BTWN 05Z-09Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
DRYING NW FLOW WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDS BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OF FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDS LIKELY OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS COULD
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT KBFD/KJST UNTIL LATE AM.
FRI SHOULD BE FINE FLYING WX WITH ONLY SOME BREEZY NW WINDS IN
THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WIND LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ONLY SLOWLY NW-SE THRU SAT...AND DRY/VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON-TUE...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS COVERING ALL BUT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH THROUGH NW MTNS AND INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS INDICATED BY AN
EXTREMELY NCFRB IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
CFROPA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PREV TIMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE
UNTIL MID- 3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS
STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS
VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS IS COMING FROM A SOURCE
REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE
BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE
HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA
OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE
KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND SHIFT/CFRONT JUST PASSING THRU KTOL AND ALONG THE LONG AXIS
OF LAKE ERIE AT 18Z. RIVER OF SHOWERS STILL STUCK OVER THE FAR
NW...BUT FLOW FLATTENS OUT TO MORE W-E THRU THE EVENING. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE SHOWERS AND FRONT INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. WIND
SHIFT WILL BE MORE GRADUAL THAN A SHARP SWING TO THE NW. MOST
PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY 03Z...WITH ONLY SOME SHRA IN THE SE AND
KJST THRU 06 OR AS LATE AS 09Z. OTHERWISE DRYING LLVL WIND WILL
START TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR RATHER EARLY
TONIGHT IN BFD AND BY MORNING EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL CONTINUE THE
THOUGHT OF SOME IFR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE W/CENT TAFS. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO VERY LOW CIGS IN THE S.
HOWEVER...DUJ AND BFD HAVE ALREADY IFR CIGS.
FRI SHOULD BE FINE FLYING WX WITH ONLY SOME BREEZY NW WINDS IN THE
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WIND LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ONLY SLOWLY NW-SE THRU SAT...AND DRY/VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON-TUE...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCHING CLOSER AND BE OVERHEAD
IN THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT. CFROPA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PREV
TIMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE UNTIL MID-3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS
TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD
INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS
IS COMING FROM A SOURCE REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM
GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM
LEARY TO TOTALLY CUT SHRA OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN
A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT
OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A RIDGE OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES...CENTERED ON THE
GLAKES. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH AS
DEEPLY...AND CREATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY NEXT FRIDAY.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND SHIFT/CFRONT JUST PASSING THRU KTOL AND ALONG THE LONG AXIS
OF LAKE ERIE AT 18Z. RIVER OF SHOWERS STILL STUCK OVER THE FAR
NW...BUT FLOW FLATTENS OUT TO MORE W-E THRU THE EVENING. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE SHOWERS AND FRONT INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. WIND
SHIFT WILL BE MORE GRADUAL THAN A SHARP SWING TO THE NW. MOST
PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY 03Z...WITH ONLY SOME SHRA IN THE SE AND
KJST THRU 06 OR AS LATE AS 09Z. OTHERWISE DRYING LLVL WIND WILL
START TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR RATHER EARLY
TONIGHT IN BFD AND BY MORNING EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL CONTINUE THE
THOUGHT OF SOME IFR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE W/CENT TAFS. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO VERY LOW CIGS IN THE S.
HOWEVER...DUJ AND BFD HAVE ALREADY IFR CIGS.
FRI SHOULD BE FINE FLYING WX WITH ONLY SOME BREEZY NW WINDS IN THE
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WIND LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ONLY SLOWLY NW-SE THRU SAT...AND DRY/VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON-TUE...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
221 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCHING CLOSER AND BE OVERHEAD
IN THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT. CFROPA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PREV
TIMING. HIGH POPS CONTINUE UNTIL MID-3AM...WHEN THE DRY AIR BEGINS
TO MAKE INROADS. PWATS STILL LOOK MUCH HIGHER THAN MDL QPF WOULD
INDICATE. BUT FORCING IS VERY WEAK. INFLOW FROM THE SS/W WILL TURN
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W THIS EVENING. THE INFLOW TO THE SERN COS
IS COMING FROM A SOURCE REGION OF 40 DEWPOINT SFC OBS. ALMOST ALL
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DONE BY 06Z ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE NEAR TERM
GUID. HRRR AND RAP ARE HANGING ONTO THINGS A BIT LONGER SO AM
LEARY TO TOALLY CUT SHRA OFF AT THAT POINT. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT TIMING...SO SEE LITTLE REASON TO LINGER MUCH MORE THAN
A SPRINKLE ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ENSUE SHORTLY AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT. BUT
OFF-LAKE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
STEEP/DRASTIC SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAKE KEEP BKN CLOUDS IN THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO FRI AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK TO BE EATEN AWAY BY THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING INVERSION AND DAYTIME MIXING. 8H
TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C IN THE FAR NE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE 5C OR BETTER. MIXING WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 3500FT THO. THUS
TEMPS WILL PROB MAX OUT IN THE U40S N AND L60S S. THESE ARE STILL
10F BETTER THAN NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN STORIES OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF IN REBUILDING THE RIDGE. EITHER
WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR MID-MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND SHIFT/CFRONT JUST PASSING THRU KTOL AND ALONG THE LONG AXIS
OF LAKE ERIE AT 18Z. RIVER OF SHOWERS STILL STUCK OVER THE FAR
NW...BUT FLOW FALLTENS OUT TO MORE W-E THRU THE EVENING. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE SHOWERS AND FRONT INTO THE REST OF THE AREA.
WIND SHIFT WILL BE MORE GRADUAL THAN A SHARP SWING TO THE NW. MOST
PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY 03Z...WITH ONLY SOME SHRA IN THE SE AND
KJST THRU 06 OR AS LATE AS 09Z. OTHERWISE DRYING LLVL WIND WILL
START TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR RATHER EARLY
TONIGHT IN BFD AND BY MORNING EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL CONTINUE THE
THOUGHT OF SOME IFR EARLY TONIGHT IN THE W/CENT TAFS. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO VERY LOW CIGS IN THE S.
HOWEVER...DUJ AND BFD HAVE ALREADY IFR CIGS.
FRI SHOULD BE FINE FLYING WX WITH ONLY SOME BREEZY NW WINDS IN THE
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WIND LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ONLY SLOWLY NW-SE THRU SAT...AND DRY/VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON-TUE...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
* HARRISBURG HAS ALREADY SMASHED THEIR REC MAX OF 72 TODAY WITH
AT LEAST A 77 AS OF 2 PM EST.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006 --- 77+ IN 2016
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT POISED TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRETCH
OF WARM AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
ALL IS ON TRACK. THE RAIN IS CERTAINLY HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING
DOWN THROUGH THE DRY AIR OVER THE SRN TIER. DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
40S THERE. RAIN STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WITH JUST A TENTH AT KBFD SO
FAR.
PREV...
VERY MILD EARLY MORNING FOR MID MARCH...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S AT 10Z.
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
RESPECT TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS...THAT WILL BE
IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW HALF OF PENN THROUGH 21-23Z TODAY. EXPECT
TO SEE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KAOO...TO KSEG AND
KHZL. THE SLICE OF COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT ANYTHING IMPACTING THIS AREA SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY THROUGH 21Z BEFORE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREAD SE INTO
THE AREA.
RAINFL AMOUNTS BY 00Z FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 OF AN
INCH OVER INVOF...AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD...TO ZERO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YORK TO HARRISBURG AND LANCASTER.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE
NORTHWEST...TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGHS SHOULD BE BROKEN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE STATE - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA BY ABOUT 06Z
FRIDAY. PWATS DO GET INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...BUT MODEL QPF IS QUITE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE STATE WHERE THE PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE ONLY SVRL
HOURS AT MOST THIS EVENING. 18-24 HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS EVENT WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NW...AND A
PALTRY ONE TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE...MID TO UPPER 40S IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND BETWEEN 50 AND 55 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FRIDAY...1032 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GLAKES REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE POOL OF SUB-0.25 INCH PWATS. PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND
EXCELLENT VSBY WILL BLANKET THE REGION FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORIES OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS...AS THE WARM FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES UP TO OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
DAYS WILL FEATURE A CHC OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF IN REBUILDING THE RIDGE. EITHER
WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR MID-MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
IFR AT BFD...OTHERWISE STILL VFR AS OF 6 AM.
A FEW SHOWERS AT BFD EARLY TODAY.
EXPECT FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY...AND SATELLITE TRENDS REALLY SHOW LACK
OF COOLING TOPS TO THE WEST...THUS HARD TO SEE MUCH GOING
ON TODAY WITH SHOWERS OR LOW CIGS. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM.
AS NOTED ABOVE...REDUCTIONS LINGER INTO FRIDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...REDUCTIONS EARLY...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. BREEZY SE.
FRI PM-SAT PM...VFR.
SUN...SCT SHRA MVFR POSS S/W...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...REDUCTIONS POSS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WEDNESDAY WAS A WARM DAY.
HARRISBURG REACHED 79 YESTERDAY. THE OLD RECORD
OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET BACK IN 2000.
WILLIAMSPORT REACHED 80 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 79 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2000.
THE READING OF 70 DEGREES AT BRADFORD TIED THE OLD
RECORD OF 70 DEGREES SET IN 2000.
THE READING OF 76 DEGREES AT ALTOONA BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 71 DEGREES SET IN 2000.
THE READING OF 71 DEGREES AT JOHNSTOWN TIED THE OLD
RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1992.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MARCH 10TH:
HARRISBURG: 72 IN 2006
WILLIAMSPORT: 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 72 IN 1986
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.AVIATION...
THERE IS A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS INLAND TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT THIS MIX TO PERSIST TODAY AS COASTAL LOW NEAR GLS
GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INLAND. EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT (POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR LEVELS) WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS. COULD SEE SHRA DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WORKS ITS WAY TO THE
NORTH INTO TEXAS. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION AS A POCKET OF DRY AIR EVIDENT ON
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT... EXPECT A LULL IN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
THIS HAPPENS. HOWEVER... STILL MAINTAINING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
LOCATED OFF GALVESTON THIS MORNING SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY /POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR RAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS INLAND/. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT /GENERALLY AROUND OR UNDER 0.25 INCHES/ AND
NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS.
MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE PLATFORM AND WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE
SHOWN SOME DEVELOPMENT.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT TSRA HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE TERMINALS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT
OVER AREA WITH PERHAPS A SHORT WAVE HELPING ENHANCE NEW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH HRRR MODEL TRENDS NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
DAY.
SFC LOW IN GULF SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST AND LIKELY BETWEEN
THE 42035 BUOY AND PLATFORM KBQX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANGING
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF KCXO. KCXO/KUTS/KCLL LIKELY
REMAIN NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIGS FOR AVIATION. LIKELY HAVE A FULL MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY DEPENDING UPON SHRA ACTIVITY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AFTER 00-03Z THIS
EVENING. TAFS SHOW IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WITH FOG.
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MAYBE SOME SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO S TX.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM THE LOW AND ONSHORE NEAR GALVESTON
ISLAND. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WAS EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND WAS ORIENTED NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NEAR THE SABINE AND INTO EAST TEXAS. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING FROM THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AS FAR WEST
AS HOUSTON AND RANGED NORTHWARD.
RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WAS ABOUT 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. FORTUNATELY...THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT A DECENT CLIP AND WERE ONLY DROPPING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL AT MOST. BEST PW/S WILL LINGER OVERHEAD UNTIL
ABOUT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WITH A SMALL WINDOW LEFT FOR THE FLOOD
THREAT...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. BY MID MORNING EXPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE LATER TONIGHT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW MEANDERING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW FINALLY SHEARING OUT OVER SE...E...
AND NE TEXAS ON SATURDAY. MODEL QPF DID NOT LOOK TO HANDLE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN VERY WELL...BUT DO THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE INLAND OF THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE COVERAGE
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STILL NEED
TO BE COGNIZANT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER COVERAGE UNTIL THE
LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE STATE.
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH A
PACIFIC FRONT MAY BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 42019 BUOY SHOULD TRACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW AND THEN
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND N. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR ROUGH SEAS REMAINING HIGH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE
THIS MORNING COMBINING WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. TIDE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT. HIGHER
WATER LEVELS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG BOLIVAR PENINSULA ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH ISLAND AREA NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND
124.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 60 73 56 74 / 60 50 60 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 62 76 60 76 / 60 50 60 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 64 73 63 73 / 50 60 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1053 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION AS A POCKET OF DRY AIR EVIDENT ON
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT... EXPECT A LULL IN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
THIS HAPPENS. HOWEVER... STILL MAINTAINING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
LOCATED OFF GALVESTON THIS MORNING SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY /POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR RAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS INLAND/. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT /GENERALLY AROUND OR UNDER 0.25 INCHES/ AND
NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS.
MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE PLATFORM AND WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE
SHOWN SOME DEVELOPMENT.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT TSRA HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE TERMINALS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT
OVER AREA WITH PERHAPS A SHORT WAVE HELPING ENHANCE NEW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH HRRR MODEL TRENDS NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
DAY.
SFC LOW IN GULF SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST AND LIKELY BETWEEN
THE 42035 BUOY AND PLATFORM KBQX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANGING
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF KCXO. KCXO/KUTS/KCLL LIKELY
REMAIN NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIGS FOR AVIATION. LIKELY HAVE A FULL MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY DEPENDING UPON SHRA ACTIVITY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AFTER 00-03Z THIS
EVENING. TAFS SHOW IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WITH FOG.
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MAYBE SOME SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO S TX.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM THE LOW AND ONSHORE NEAR GALVESTON
ISLAND. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WAS EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND WAS ORIENTED NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NEAR THE SABINE AND INTO EAST TEXAS. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING FROM THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AS FAR WEST
AS HOUSTON AND RANGED NORTHWARD.
RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WAS ABOUT 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. FORTUNATELY...THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT A DECENT CLIP AND WERE ONLY DROPPING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL AT MOST. BEST PW/S WILL LINGER OVERHEAD UNTIL
ABOUT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WITH A SMALL WINDOW LEFT FOR THE FLOOD
THREAT...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. BY MID MORNING EXPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE LATER TONIGHT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW MEANDERING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW FINALLY SHEARING OUT OVER SE...E...
AND NE TEXAS ON SATURDAY. MODEL QPF DID NOT LOOK TO HANDLE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN VERY WELL...BUT DO THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE INLAND OF THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE COVERAGE
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STILL NEED
TO BE COGNIZANT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER COVERAGE UNTIL THE
LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE STATE.
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH A
PACIFIC FRONT MAY BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY.
40
MARINE...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 42019 BUOY SHOULD TRACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW AND THEN
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND N. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR ROUGH SEAS REMAINING HIGH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE
THIS MORNING COMBINING WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. TIDE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT. HIGHER
WATER LEVELS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG BOLIVAR PENINSULA ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH ISLAND AREA NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND
124.
39
CLIMATE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HELPED BREAK TWO RECORD RAINFALL RECORDS
YESTERDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SITE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD
KGLS 2.98 INCHES 1.75 INCHES IN 1880
KHOU 2.91 INCHES 1.72 INCHES IN 2015
NOTE TWO INTERESTING ASPECTS REGARDING BOTH RECORDS. THE CITY OF
GALVESTON HAD A 136-YEAR-OLD RECORD BROKEN...WHILE HOBBY AIRPORT/S
OLD RECORD WAS SET JUST ONE YEAR AGO.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 60 73 56 74 / 60 50 60 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 62 76 60 76 / 60 50 60 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 64 73 63 73 / 50 60 40 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14