Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/09/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 810 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX TODAY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT UNFORTUNATELY
CIRCUMNAVIGATED MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AS IT
DEEPENED INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...DID MANAGED TO DEVELOP ROBUST
RAINFALL TO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ. TUESDAY MORNING REGIONAL WEATHER
BALLOON SOUNDINGS DETECTED A HEALTHY NORTHWARD MOVING PLUME OF LOW
LEVEL MEXICO MOISTURE UNDER-NEATH SOME HEALTHY STORM DYNAMICS. THIS
RESULTING IN 3/4 INCH RAINFALL IN DOUGLAS AZ. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HOWEVER DIMINISHED NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH 0.11 AT THE TUCSON
AIRPORT...AND A MEASLY 0.02 AT SAN CARLOS...THE EASTERN MOST
POINT OF OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

A PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW PATTERN IS ALREADY MOVING A LARGE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO CA THIS EVENING...AND INTO AZ
TONIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...OR BACK TO THE SAME ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT
DRY AND WARMER FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GOOD. NO
UPDATES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW STILL APPLY.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...213 PM MST...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
COMBINED WITH THE STEADY WIND...IT FEELS QUITE CHILLY EVEN IN THE
LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...IN SOME REGARDS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES NOT LOOK UNLIKE AN AVERAGE JULY DAY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.

LIFTED INDICES REMAIN NEAR ZERO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT (ROUGHLY 10TH PERCENTILE) AND THIS IS SUPPORTING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS GILA AND NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...HI-RES WRFS INCLUDING THE HRRR INSIST THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE ALTOGETHER AFTER SUNSET. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS ALSO WORKING AGAINST PRECIPITATION MAINTENANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT.


.PREVIOUS TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 AM MST...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
THROUGH 09Z WED...WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS...
BECOMING LIGHT UNDER 6 KNOTS AFT 09Z WED THROUGH 19Z WED. GUSTY
AFTEROON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 18 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL
STAY LOCALLY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/HIRSCH/AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...CB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 155 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016

&&

.SYNOPSIS... A WEATHER SYSTEM...THAT WILL BE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN NEXT WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE STRONG UPPER LOW...THAT PUSHED A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND INTO THE LA AND SAN DIEGO AREAS THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH (OR EVEN MORE)...AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OFF SMALL
HAIL...CAN NOW BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO
MOVE S-WARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE LA/SAN DIEGO METRO AREAS HAS NOW CROSSED THE COASTAL RANGES AND
HAS WEAKENED GREATLY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE PARENT UPPER LOW/COLD
POOL ALOFT...REDUCED TO JUST A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
SE CA AT THIS HOUR. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SW AZ
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SE CA/SW AZ HAVE/WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...MAINLY
AOB 0.10 INCH...AS INDICATED ON THE LATEST SREF PLUMES. ALTHOUGH
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE BEING FORECASTED BY THE GFS/NAM MODELS
OVER THAT REGION.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO BEING FORECAST
THISEVENING BY THE HIGH-RES MODELS...AS MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WRAP
NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER...AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A COMBINATION OF THIS
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA
ITSELF...DUE TO UNFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE NORTHERLY
FLOW...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING DOWN IN THE 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE. A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN
REALLY FORCEFULLY BUT ENOUGH TO PUT US BACK INTO THE 80S. WINDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE GETTING FLATTENED OVER THE WEEKEND
BY A COUPLE OF WEAKENING TROUGHS. GFS STRONGER WITH IT THAN ECMWF
AND GEM. NAEFS POPS PRETTY MODEST. BUT WITH A FETCH OVER THE PACIFIC
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS SO THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES OVER JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE SWITCH
TO DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE LATER THAN NORMAL AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME BRIEF CIGS DOWN TO 4K FT ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KIPL...THOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 8K FT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...CB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 1230 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY...DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL...AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY TO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANTICIPATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE
SOME MODEST COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A BIT OF A BREAK THIS MORNING...AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT US THE GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MOVES OFF TO
THE NE...INTO WESTERN CO/EXTREME NORTHERN NM. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH
CLEARED FOR THE MOMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS
BEING REPORTED. SOME HAZINESS CAN BE SEEN IN THE SKY AS
WELL...LIKELY DUE TO LEFTOVER SUSPENDED DUST FROM YESTERDAY. OVER SE
CA AND SW AZ...WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER...WHICH IS NOW GENERATING
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS NOW MOVING INLAND
INTO THE LA BASIN...IS STILL FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...THEN INTO NORTHERN BAJA/SONORA LATER TONIGHT
AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA...ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ..WHERE
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL MOVES A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THAT REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALONG
WITH THE SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS SE
CA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SW AZ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AGAIN POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS CONCERNED...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/HIGH-RES
FORECASTS...INHERITED FORECASTS SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TUESDAY...
THE NEXT LOW...WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS EVIDENT OVER AND NEAR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OCCURRING THERE...MAINLY
OFFSHORE...NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS A VERY STRONG JET...SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 185
KTS...CHARGING SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...THE
TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG. AS A RESULT THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO WITH THE JET AXIS REMAINING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...LESS SO OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
CHANCES GOING OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SREF CAPE PROBABILITIES INDICATE SOME MODEST CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
IT WILL GET WINDY AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THUS HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST/SAND AT TIMES AND ADDED THAT FOR TODAY
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY BUT WITH NORTHERLY ORIENTATION WHICH TENDS TO BE
LESS DUSTY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NICE DROP
TODAY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS BARELY REACHING 70 DEGREES...STAYING
BELOW THAT OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TEMPS
START TO CLIMB ON TUESDAY TO VERY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN
REALLY FORCEFULLY BUT ENOUGH TO PUT US BACK INTO THE 80S. WINDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE GETTING FLATTENED OVER THE WEEKEND
BY A COUPLE OF WEAKENING TROUGHS. GFS STRONGER WITH IT THAN ECMWF
AND GEM. NAEFS POPS PRETTY MODEST. BUT WITH A FETCH OVER THE PACIFIC
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS SO THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES OVER JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE SWITCH
TO DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE LATER THAN NORMAL AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME BRIEF CIGS DOWN TO 4K FT ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KIPL...THOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 8K FT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...CB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 1005 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA
AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S-30S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 10-20 DEGS HIGHER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 5-15 DEGS COOLER
VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 07/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE
WAS 0.48 INCH...AN INCREASE OF NEARLY 0.15 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
THE COLUMN WAS NEARLY SATURATED IN THE 850-700 LAYER THOUGH WAS VERY
DRY FROM 700-400 MB. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS QUITE STABLE...WITH VERY
MINIMAL CAPE AND LI/S OF PLUS 1 TO 7 DEPENDING UPON THE LIFTING
METHOD. 07/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A 540 DM LOW CENTERED JUST
WEST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO CALIF BAY AREA...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
FROM SWRN NEW MEXICO NWWD INTO IDAHO. MODERATE WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

07/12Z NAM/GFS AND 07/00Z ECMWF/CMC DEPICT THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE
SEWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND EWD
ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO TUE. 07/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM DEPICTED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EAST OF TUCSON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. 07/15Z HRRR WAS
SOMEWHAT FURTHER WEST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...WITH
INITIATION TO OCCUR SOUTH OF TUCSON BETWEEN 19Z-20Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THEN DEPICTED FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE CUMULOFORM CLOUD
FIELD SEEN FROM SE-SW OF TUCSON AT THIS TIME...THE HRRR MAY BE A
PREFERRED HI-RES SOLUTION.

AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST POPS/QPFS WERE UPDATED EARLIER
THIS MORNING FOR INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS RESPECTIVELY...
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE. THUS...ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED
TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TUE MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF
TUCSON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL TUE AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS AROUND
DAYBREAK TUE ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET...THEN SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 6000-6500 FEET BY TUE EVENING. STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE TO FOUR
INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET...THOUGH THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/18Z.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO SONORA MEXICO TUESDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
VICINITY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED -SHRA WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
SWLY/WLY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EAST ACROSS SONORA MEXICO TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SOME GUSTY WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST
OF TUCSON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /311 AM MST/...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO.
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...THE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING...THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE COLDEST SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 855 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY...DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL...AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY TO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANTICIPATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE
SOME MODEST COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A BIT OF A BREAK THIS MORNING...AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT US THE GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MOVES OFF TO
THE NE...INTO WESTERN CO/EXTREME NORTHERN NM. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH
CLEARED FOR THE MOMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS
BEING REPORTED. SOME HAZINESS CAN BE SEEN IN THE SKY AS
WELL...LIKELY DUE TO LEFTOVER SUSPENDED DUST FROM YESTERDAY. OVER SE
CA AND SW AZ...WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER...WHICH IS NOW GENERATING
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS NOW MOVING INLAND
INTO THE LA BASIN...IS STILL FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...THEN INTO NORTHERN BAJA/SONORA LATER TONIGHT
AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA...ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ..WHERE
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL MOVES A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THAT REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALONG
WITH THE SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS SE
CA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SW AZ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AGAIN POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS CONCERNED...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/HIGH-RES
FORECASTS...INHERITED FORECASTS SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TUESDAY...
THE NEXT LOW...WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS EVIDENT OVER AND NEAR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OCCURRING THERE...MAINLY
OFFSHORE...NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS A VERY STRONG JET...SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 185
KTS...CHARGING SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...THE
TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG. AS A RESULT THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO WITH THE JET AXIS REMAINING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...LESS SO OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
CHANCES GOING OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SREF CAPE PROBABILITIES INDICATE SOME MODEST CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
IT WILL GET WINDY AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THUS HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST/SAND AT TIMES AND ADDED THAT FOR TODAY
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY BUT WITH NORTHERLY ORIENTATION WHICH TENDS TO BE
LESS DUSTY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NICE DROP
TODAY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS BARELY REACHING 70 DEGREES...STAYING
BELOW THAT OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TEMPS
START TO CLIMB ON TUESDAY TO VERY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN
REALLY FORCEFULLY BUT ENOUGH TO PUT US BACK INTO THE 80S. WINDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE GETTING FLATTENED OVER THE WEEKEND
BY A COUPLE OF WEAKENING TROUGHS. GFS STRONGER WITH IT THAN ECMWF
AND GEM. NAEFS POPS PRETTY MODEST. BUT WITH A FETCH OVER THE PACIFIC
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS SO THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES OVER JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY. WEST WINDS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING THAT A FULL SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. ITS QUITE POSSIBLE A VARIABLE OR
SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY GOING BACK TO
A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT LATE IN THE MORNING.

SCATTERED CUMULUS DECKS SHOULD FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING DURING
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THIS MORNING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BKN
DECK COULD INITIALLY FORM NEAR 7K FT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY BKN DECKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AFTER 02Z...WITH BASES BETWEEN
7K AND 10K FEET...AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR KPHX...DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER BELOW 6K FEET
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
GUSTY WINDS...LOWER VFR CIGS...AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALL
AFFECT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TERMINALS TODAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE A STRONG AS SUNDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT W/SW
GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS NEAR
4K FT IS NOT AS CERTAIN...THOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A 1-3
HOUR TIME PERIOD SOMETIME IN THE 18Z-24Z TIME FRAME WHERE LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WHILE CATEGORIES SHOULD STAY IN
THE VFR RANGE...THERE IS SOME VERY LIMITED CHANCE OF BRIEFLY
TOUCHING MVFR CATEGORY DURING MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

 141 PM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND DEVELOP HEAVY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. DRY
AND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ALONG COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY....WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
COAST...HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL CA...AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CA.
COMPOSITE RADAR DISPLAYED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A PRECIPITATION SUMMARY WAS ISSUED AROUND 1 PM...AND IS
HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. H500 TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -28 C THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST AREAS...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE HEAVY SNOWFALL AT
TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3500-4000 FT BY TONIGHT. THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...
3500 TO 4500 FT...1 TO 3 INCHES
4500 TO 6000 FT...3 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 6000 FT.....6 TO 10 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES

SEE THE PRODUCT SUMMARY BELOW FOR DETAILS ON TIMING OF THE WIND
ADVISORY AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE DRY WEATHER OVER
THE REGION...AND HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO 5 TO 10 DEG F
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. THE 07/1200 UTC ECMWF IS LEANING AWAY FROM
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SW CA...WHILE THE 07/1200 UTC GFS
NOW SHOWS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SW CA AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE MODELS DISAGREEING IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...KEPT THE CURRENT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A WET
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
072105Z...BKN-SCT CLOUD DECKS WITHIN THE 1000-15000 FT MSL
LAYER...WITH SCT EMBEDDED SHRA...POSSIBLE ISOL TSRA...CB TOPS TO
30000 FT MSL...AND MTN OBSCURATION...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08/0300
UTC MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH BKN-SCT CLOUD DECKS
WITHIN THE 5000-15000 FT MSL LAYER AND ISOL SHRA OVER THE DESERTS.
08/0300-0800 UTC...SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHING ALL AREAS WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECKS IN THE 1000-10000 FT MSL LAYER AND LOCAL MTN
OBSCURATION...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 7000-12000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS IN THE DESERTS. 08/0800-1500 UTC...FEW-SCT CLOUDS
1000-8000 FT MSL AND MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED VIS ALL AREAS.

A FEW GUSTS AT TAF SITES COULD EXCEED 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
MOUNTAIN WAVES IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS...LOCAL LLWS AND
ROTORS. REDUCED VIS IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
105 PM...A POWERFUL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS...HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 27 TO 33 KT...WITH
13 FOOT SEAS AT 15 SECONDS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WHILE THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTAINS DETAILS ON
THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS...LAXMWSSGX. THE GALE WARNING PROVIDES
THE DETAILS ON STORMY WINDS AND SEAS...LAXMWWSGX. NO ADDITIONAL
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
105 PM...VERY LARGE SURF WILL HIT THE BEACHES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURF...GUSTY WINDS...AND PROJECTED
HIGH TIDES OVER 6 FEET WILL THREATEN LOW-LYING AREAS WITH COASTAL
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING
WILL DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING ALSO EXISTS
TODAY AT THE BEACHES. FOR DETAILS...CHECK THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY/WARNING...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...AND THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX...AS WELL AS THE SURF FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TUESDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
     60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 1129 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. FAIR SKIES AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN
NEXT LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BROUGHT THUNDER AND HIGH
WINDS ALONG WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING AND IT IS CURRENTLY
EXITING LA COUNTY. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING IN THE COLD AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE, SMALL HAIL, AND POWER OUTAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SO
FAR THIS MORNING. LIFTED INDEXES WILL FALL TO ABOUT -3 AND THERE
IS A CONTINUING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA
TODAY. CAPES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR SRN CA IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE AND THIS MUCH ENERGY IS ENOUGH PRODUCE MORE SMALL HAIL.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE...IN GENERAL...LESS THAN YDYS
RAIN BUT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM A FEW AREAS
WILL SEE MORE RAIN DUE TO TSTMS. IN GENERAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE
FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY TSTMS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE ALL SORTS OF WEATHER TO DEAL WITH AND ITS
A GOOD DAY TO AVOID MTN TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...LOW ENOUGH TO AFFECT TRAVELERS ON THE
GRAPEVINE. MANY AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 5 OR 10 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL AS LOW AS
4500 FEET. THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 60 MPH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE SNOW AND WINDS HAVE CREATED WINTER STORM WARNING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE VTA AND LA MTNS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SBA MTNS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS
SNOW ESP IN NON REMOTE AREAS AND WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
STRONG A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE MTNS (AS ARE THE SLO
COUNTY MTNS)

WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE COLD AIR POURS
IN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND OVER THE
SANTA MONICA MTNS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

THINGS WILL QUICKLY SETTLE DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY
AFFECT TRAVELERS ON THE I-5 CREATED BY THE NORTH UPSLOPE WINDS BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND MAX TEMPS WILL RISE. THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND PUT MAX TEMPS RIGHT BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

MORE RIDGING AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL COME IN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN
WITH MAX TEMPS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.


.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH IT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

FRIDAYS FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE MURKY AS THE MDLS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME NAILING DOWN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT HAS VARIED BY ABOUT 18 HOURS BOTH EARLIER AND LATER. RIGHT
NOW THE BEST GUESS FOR THE FRONT IS LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TOO BIG A SYSTEM AND MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN MAYBE A LITTLE MORE OVER SLO
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY IF THE SYSTEM HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING THAN IF THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLIER.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER NOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

BROAD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AND
WHILE THERE IS NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RAIN IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1800Z.

AT 1747Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO NOTABLE INVERSION.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...THE AREA NOW SITS UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE TERMINATING LATE THIS EVENING.

KLAX... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. NORTH
WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH CROSS WINDS TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.

KBUR... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. NORTH
WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH CROSS WINDS TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...07/900 AM.

A MODERATELY STRONG STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AND FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THEN A GALE WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...07/900 AM.

HIGH SURF WILL PEAK ON THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE SURF FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT SURF WILL EXCEED HIGH SURF WARNING CRITERIA OF 20
FEET ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND 15 FEET FOR FAVORED WEST-FACING
BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SURF WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE... AROUND
800 AM THIS MORNING... 900 PM THIS EVENING... AND 830 AM TUESDAY.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
      34>36-40. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      37-38-51. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONE
      39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      39-41-52-87. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONES 44>46-547. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 53-54. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONE
      59. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1018 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Main update was replacing the Winter Storm Warning with a Winter
Weather Advisory for the Sierra zones, and letting the advisory
expire for northeast CA-northwest NV. Lighter snow associated with
deformation zone will continue today but we are expecting fewer
travel impacts. Recent web cameras show wet roads on I-80 near
Donner Summit and US-50 near Echo Summit. Mono County has been
left dry so far this morning, but short range guidance has
indicated that the deformation zone will shift to that area by
early-mid afternoon. If this deformation area comes together as
projected, snow may persist a few hours into the evening near
Mammoth Lakes, although amounts are not likely to exceed 6
inches. MJD

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...

Upper low has slowed its east-southeast progress and remains just
off the central CA coast this morning. Just looking at the trends
from satellite and radar data leads one to believe the best
chance for any appreciable snow will be farther south into Mono
County through the day. But...the latest HRRR depictions show
precipitation developing across far western Nevada and northeast
California later this morning in response to the expected
deformation zone on the north and northeast side of the upper low.
If/when this happens we could see a period of accumulating snow
across the far northern part of the forecast area where
temperatures are closer to the freezing mark this morning and
relative humidity is higher. Farther south along the Sierra Front
the temperatures this morning area a little higher and there is a
little more dry air near the surface. This would produce wet
bulbing...but may not be sufficiently cold enough to allow any
accumulation as the morning wears on. So...even though we may see
snow across the Reno/Carson City area later this morning...it does
not appear now there will be sufficient accumulating snow to
maintain the winter weather advisory.

Snow amounts will be a little less in the the Tahoe basin as
well...but we will maintain the warning there for now given snow
that has already fallen and continuing travel difficulties.
Farther north there is still light snow falling in parts of
northeast california so we will let the advisory continue there as
well. In Mono County we expect redevelopment as this area will be
closer to the upper low today. The amounts may not be what we
originally forecast...but there should be some snow and travel
difficulties later this morning. 20

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

Storm pushing through the Sierra today may impact the morning
commute with snow covered roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
Tuesday will bring a brief break in the weather before the pattern
turns wet again midweek.

SHORT TERM...

Heavy snowfall continues in the Sierra early this morning as this
second winter storm pushes into the West Coast. Sierra passes have
been significantly impacted overnight with extensive travel delays,
chain controls, and even a temporary closure of Interstate 80 to
name a few incidents. For the latest on road conditions please
check with CalTrans, NDOT, or CHP.

Precipitation has not begun to spillover into western Nevada early
this morning, but high resolution simulations are indicating that
could occur sometime between 3AM and 6AM this morning. Forecast
model soundings are still indicating a very unstable atmosphere
with steep lapse rates that would be conducive to showers
developing. NAM/GFS are indicating that the area of deformation
may develop later, after 10AM, which would not be conducive to
snowfall accumulating on the roadways and therefore limiting
snowfall totals for Reno, Carson City, and Minden. Although totals
may be lower for the morning commute, drivers should be alert and
slow down as even wet roads will create slick driving conditions.

As the upper level trough drops south and east later this afternoon,
the flow turns north/northeast into the southern Sierra resulting in
moist upslope flow into Mono/Alpine counties. Wrap around bands
could result in a late afternoon burst of snow showers, especially
from Highway 50 south. With snowfall likely persisting through the
afternoon and into the evening, we decided to go ahead and extend
the Winter Storm Warning through 4PM. There is potential for
additional accumulations around 1 to 2 feet of snow above 7000 feet
through late this evening in Mono County. Please see the Winter
Storm Warning for details.

We are still anticipating a break in the weather on Tuesday as a
weak ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Tuesday night into
Wednesday, warm air advection precipitation starts to push into
far northern CA/NV with light precipitation possible mainly north
of Interstate 80. Models have continued to trend farther south
with this feature. With forecast model soundings showing an
isothermal layer for this time frame with the light precipitation,
we are expecting it to fall as snow with some light accumulations
possible especially north of Gerlach and Susanville. The light
snow accumulations could pose a problem for the Wednesday morning
commute as it would increase the chances for slick road
conditions. Weishahn

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

A few changes were made to pops in the extended forecast early on
with only minimal changes made after Friday. The model solutions
offer overall mild agreement in the long wave pattern as a broad
trough remains offshore through the extended period...but there is
little agreement in the details at this point regarding timing of
short waves rotating through the flow that would trigger periods of
precipitation. The extended looks to be a time of unsettled
weather...but whether that takes the form of rain or snow outside of
the higher elevations is quite literally up in the air at this point.

By Thursday the GFS is a little faster and farther south than the
ECMWF in bringing pcpn back to the region. This means lower snow
levels for the GFS as well. These differences extend into Friday as
the GFS moves the short wave through the region with pops
spreading across the CWA while the ECMWF holds the short wave back
to the west and almost gives it a negative tilt. This would slow
the entrance of pcpn into western Nevada until later Friday and
cause higher temperatures over the Basin and Range. The GEFS
ensembles show some minor support for this solution...but most
members are closer to the deterministic GFS. So the primary
changes were to bump pops up a bit over the far western CWA
Thursday and trim them back in the eastern CWA. Pops were lowered
in the far southeast CWA for Friday.

The ECMWF becomes almost zonal and much wetter than the GFS by late
Saturday. The GFS redevelops the long wave trough off the coast.
Again...these disparate solutions would have significant impacts to
pops...snow levels and temperatures. This extends into Sunday as the
GFS starts to eject another short wave and becomes much colder than
the ECMWF.

Overall there is a high likelihood that the extended period will
feature wet weather...but differences in the deterministic and
ensemble model solutions lead to a low confidence forecast regarding
any details. Will go with a very general forecast of the period this
cycle. 20

AVIATION...

Deep moisture plume and lift associated with the next short wave
trough and incoming upper level low will combine to produce snow
through the Sierra into the early afternoon while areas east and
north of the Sierra see a mix of rain and snow before turning to all
snow later today. Currently there is less precipitation making its
way over the Sierra as the mid level winds have become more
southerly. This will allow VFR conditions to hold on longer east of
the Sierra and even in some Sierra valleys through roughly daybreak.
As the upper low gets closer today...conditions should deteriorate
with snow accumulating on the Sierra runways up to as much as 6
inches through late morning and IFR conditions prevailing. East of
the Sierra the likelihood of accumulating snow is becoming far more
uncertain...but we could see a couple of inches at KCXP and KMEV
through 7/18 UTC. The lack of significant spillover is making
accumulations at KRNO far less likely...but they cannot be ruled out.

Occasional gusty winds will continue this morning up to 35kts from
the south. By late afternoon surface winds should shift to the
northwest for most locations. Lingering snow showers will bring
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions into the evening hours before the
showers taper off by daybreak Tuesday.

Another round of unsettled weather will return to the region
starting Wednesday and last through the week. 20


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 1007 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END
BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE NORTH
BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST MONDAY...KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION WITH A LARGER
BLOCK OF RAINFALL HEADING TOWARD OUR AREA. THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING OUR CWA. HRRR AND NAM
BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 1/10" FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH 1/4" TO 1/2"
FOR THE MAJORITY OF COASTAL RANGES. SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AROUND OUR REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SETS UP STARTING THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS JUST IN IS NOW TRENDING MORE TO THE IDEA
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING WHICH SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A
MULTIPLE WET SYSTEMS TO GO THROUGH FROM THAT POINT INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY POTENT AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA SINCE LAST EVENING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OFFSHORE...PRIMARILY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE PERSISTENT AND LONG-
LASTING HEAVY RAIN LIKE WHAT OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING
SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR URBAN
FLOODING SINCE SUNDAY EVENING...THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS OUR
REGION HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST. MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. SO IT`S LIKELY THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ALSO...URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY.
RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM
ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE HILLS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AND CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT ALL BUT A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH ALONG OUR
COAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOSTLY END BY EVENING AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SINK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AND FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TODAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY LATE TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.

THE COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE COOLEST INLAND VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CA BY TUESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...OR
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW FORECAST LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR TO
SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL THEN EITHER REMAIN REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (ECMWF) OR SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (GFS). IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF IT
REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:03 AM PST MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH OUR REGION TO AT LEAST 0Z ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THEM TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. IN GENERAL,
DECIDED TO HANDLE IT WITH A VCSH INSTEAD OF TRYING TO GIVE EXACT
TIMES. CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR
WITH STRONGER CELLS. WINDS OF 270 TO 300 EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF MVFR WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WINDS INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT POSSIBLE FROM 0Z TO 05Z. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE BEFORE 0Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. WINDS
FORECAST TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KT FROM 250 TO 270 20Z TO 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:12 AM PST MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 15 TO 18 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14
SEC. WESTERLY SWELL MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:35 AM PST MONDAY...NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATER LATE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING STEEP WIND DRIVEN WAVES ON TOP OF A BUILDING
WESTERLY SWELL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS SAN
FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...SF BAY

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BFG


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 840 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END
BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE NORTH
BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST MONDAY...KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION WITH A LARGER
BLOCK OF RAINFALL HEADING TOWARD OUR AREA. THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING OUR CWA. HRRR AND NAM
BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 1/10" FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH 1/4" TO 1/2"
FOR THE MAJORITY OF COASTAL RANGES. SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AROUND OUR REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SETS UP STARTING THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS JUST IN IS NOW TRENDING MORE TO THE IDEA
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING WHICH SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A
MULTIPLE WET SYSTEMS TO GO THROUGH FROM THAT POINT INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY POTENT AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA SINCE LAST EVENING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OFFSHORE...PRIMARILY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE PERSISTENT AND LONG-
LASTING HEAVY RAIN LIKE WHAT OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING
SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR URBAN
FLOODING SINCE SUNDAY EVENING...THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS OUR
REGION HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST. MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. SO IT`S LIKELY THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ALSO...URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY.
RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM
ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE HILLS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AND CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT ALL BUT A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH ALONG OUR
COAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOSTLY END BY EVENING AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SINK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AND FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TODAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY LATE TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.

THE COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE COOLEST INLAND VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CA BY TUESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...OR
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW FORECAST LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR TO
SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL THEN EITHER REMAIN REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (ECMWF) OR SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (GFS). IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF IT
REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:03 AM PST MONDAY...TOUGH FORECAST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT A SFC LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY
AREA AS WELL. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AND WILL SO
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS WILL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON PRECIP.
THE TOUGHEST CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS. EXPECTING
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH CIGS
3500-5000 FT. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITH A PASSING SHOWER. TOUGHER
FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN THE WINDS. SE TO W WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AS THE SFC LOW TO N MOVES S. HEDGED BETS FOR MORE
SW...BUT OCCASIONAL SE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP THIS AM. DO EXPECT MORE
WESTERLY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SPEEDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...DESPITE RAIN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:12 AM PST MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 15 TO 18 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14
SEC. WESTERLY SWELL MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG SOUTH OF POINT SUR WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
WESTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY TODAY BEFORE
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS
             SCA...SF BAY
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 416 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOSTLY END BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING
IN THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SPREADING
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 AM PST MONDAY...A RELATIVELY POTENT AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE LAST EVENING. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OFFSHORE...PRIMARILY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LASTING HEAVY RAIN LIKE WHAT
OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING SINCE SUNDAY
EVENING...THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4
AM PST. MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY
4 AM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA. SO IT`S LIKELY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ALSO...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY. RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE HILLS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AND CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT ALL BUT A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH ALONG OUR
COAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOSTLY END BY EVENING AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SINK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AND FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TODAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY LATE TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.

THE COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE COOLEST INLAND VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CA BY TUESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...OR
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW FORECAST LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR TO
SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL THEN EITHER REMAIN REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (ECMWF) OR SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (GFS). IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF IT
REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:03 AM PST MONDAY...TOUGH FORECAST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT A SFC LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY
AREA AS WELL. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AND WILL SO
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS WILL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON PRECIP.
THE TOUGHEST CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS. EXPECTING
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH CIGS
3500-5000 FT. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITH A PASSING SHOWER. TOUGHER
FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN THE WINDS. SE TO W WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AS THE SFC LOW TO N MOVES S. HEDGED BETS FOR MORE
SW...BUT OCCASIONAL SE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP THIS AM. DO EXPECT MORE
WESTERLY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SPEEDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...DESPITE RAIN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:12 AM PST MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 15 TO 18 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14
SEC. WESTERLY SWELL MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG SOUTH OF POINT SUR WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
WESTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TUESDAY.&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...SF BAY
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 245 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOSTLY END BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING
IN THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SPREADING
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 AM PST MONDAY...A RELATIVELY POTENT AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE LAST EVENING. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OFFSHORE...PRIMARILY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LASTING HEAVY RAIN LIKE WHAT
OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING SINCE SUNDAY
EVENING...THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4
AM PST. MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY
4 AM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA. SO IT`S LIKELY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ALSO...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY. RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE HILLS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AND CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT ALL BUT A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH ALONG OUR
COAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOSTLY END BY EVENING AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SINK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AND FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TODAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY LATE TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.

THE COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE COOLEST INLAND VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CA BY TUESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...OR
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW FORECAST LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR TO
SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL THEN EITHER REMAIN REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (ECMWF) OR SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (GFS). IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF IT
REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SUNDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NEARING
THE SFO BAY AREA AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AFTER
08Z. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IN THE SFO/OAK VICINITY THROUGH 12Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS HAVE REMAINED IN THE VFR RANGE BUT MAY
DROP BRIEFLY INTO MVFR RANGE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH 12Z. SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT SWITCHING
TO SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING AFTER 08Z. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL HAVE AFTER 08Z.
FORECAST IS FOR A SWITCH TO 230 DEGREES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AND MAY ONLY GRADUALLY SWITCH TO 210-220 FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
GOING TO 230-240. SHOWERS WITH RISING CIGS AFTER 12Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 3000
FEET. LIGHT RAIN BECOMING SHOWERY AFTER 13Z.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:17 AM PST SUNDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 11
TO 13 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14 SEC. WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS STILL EXPECT TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MOST COASTAL LOCATION REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SPOT NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH SURF WARNING. SINCE IT IS
BORDERLINE...WILL LEAVE THE ADV AS IS FOR NOW. EITHER
WAY...CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME RATHER ROUGH LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY SWELLS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
PEAKING ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 4 AM
             WIND ADVISORY...ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 4 AM
             HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...SF BAY
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 AM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM UNTIL 3
     PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 824 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016

 A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER SHOWER ECHOS ON RADAR
ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...WITH SOME LIGHT ECHOES
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH
ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS AND THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CAPES ARE RUNNING 100-300 J/KG AND LAPSE
RATES ARE 7- 9 C/KM UP TO 350MB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN A SHORT TIME. IF THIS FALLS OVER I-70 OR ANOTHER
ROADWAY...SLUSHY/SNOWPACKED ROADS WOULD BE EXPECTED. AS THE
AIRMASS STABILIZES...SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAP
AND HRRR INDICATE THE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE DENVER
METRO AREA THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL
HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST IN CASE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURS IN THE DENVER AREA...IT WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A FEW LOCATION MAY PICK UP TO 2
INCHES...OTHERWISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL HAVE
10 POPS FOR THIS. MAINLY VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE SECOND OF TWO SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACCORDING TO MODELS. LAST OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MTNS THE PRODUCT OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK
OROGRAPHICS INDUCED BY NWLY POST-TROUGH FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF GUIDANCE INDICATING BARELY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE
06Z/THURSDAY. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS AND NOTHING ANYWHERE AFTER 06Z
WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO RACE ACROSS NEB/KAN. GOING WITH 30-50
PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY EVENING LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO
BY MORNING. ON THE PLAINS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
WITH 10-15 PCT POPS FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN EARLY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN WITH CLEARING
LATE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE FCST REGION. MODELS
SHOW A 582 DECAMETER HIGH BULGING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY AND UP ACRS SRN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A CLEAR NIGHT THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGS F ABV AVG THURSDAY AND 14-18 DEG F ABV AVG ON FRIDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ONSHORE IN
CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES QUICKLY ACRS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER COLORADO ON SATURDAY. MODELS FORM A WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AROUND 12Z/SATURDAY. LOW TRACKS E-SEWRD TAKING A
NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WHICH SWEEPS ACRS THE STATE
DURING THE DAY. MODELS GENERATE SOME LOW QPF/SNOW ACCUM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY BUT NOTHING ON THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW RACES SEWRD ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DROP OFF IN PRECIP UP OUR WAY. BY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE GENERATING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABV AVG TEMPS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY ACCORDING THE MODELS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
ALSO QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO
STRAY AS THE ECMWF SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL ROCKY MTN REGION BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIP. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THIS SAME TROUGH CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
REGION. MODEL SHOW A STRONG SLY GRADIENT FLOW SETTING UP ON THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABV AVG. MODELS ALSO SHOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MTNS BY LATE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
NEARING TROUGH. CERTAINLY TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHICH ONE OF THIS
SCENARIOS WILL PAN OUT. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR
NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALL RETURNED OR ARE RETURNING TO NORMAL
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS 5000 TO 7000 FEET THROUGH
05Z WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRING CUMULUS CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. CLOUD BASES WILL BE
HIGHER....6000 TO 8000 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1236 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPDATED TO DELETE HEADLINES FOR CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EASTERN UT AND SW CO. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED
OVER BOTH AREAS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 700 MB LOW CENTER MOVED TO NORTHEAST CO AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS SLIDING NORTHEAST WITH IT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. COLDER AIR
SLOWLY FILLING INTO THE REGION AS SFC FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. LATE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS AS RESULT...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VALUE INCLUDES SNOW
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...SO ANOTHER 2 TO 4 TODAY. SNOW LEVELS
RUNNING IN THE 5-6K RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LEVEL OUT NEAR 6K BY
MID MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR VARY BY A LARGE
MARGIN WITH THE BIGGEST WINNER SO FAR BEING PARK RESERVOIR UP ON
THE GRAND MESA WHICH IS CLIMBING PAST THE FOOT MARK WITH A SIMPLE
10 TO 1 RATIO. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET A BETTER
LOOK AT WEBCAMS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO ITS COLD PHASE AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND
SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN END OUTPACING ITS
NORTHERN PORTION. A VORT LOBE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE FAR CORNER OF
NORTHWEST CO BY 15Z WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL CO. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE LONGER OVER THE CO PORTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ENERGY WILL
REMAIN REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO THE ELK HEAD AND NORTHERN PARK RANGES SHOULD PICK UP
THEIR BEST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AS OUR STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS
SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND THE
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM TRACK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERED THE
COOLING IN THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN
FEATURE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO MEXICO AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THIS LOW...THUS PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON OUR FORECAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ENERGY OUT TO OUR
WEST...BUT EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO OUR AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROLLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT THEN CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

ILS BREAKPOINTS HAVE BEEN REACHED FOR MANY AIRPORTS THIS MORNING
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH HAS IMPROVED GREATLY WHILE SOME
LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND OCCNL RAIN CONTINUES FOR KVEL. THESE CLOUDS
WILL START LIFTING AFTER 20Z. CLOUDS WILL START LIFTING BETWEEN
23Z TO 02Z ALONG THE CO/UT BORDER TO INCLUDE KGJT KRIL KMTJ AND
POSSIBLY KTEX WHILE KASE AND KEGE WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A
FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS BUT NOT SURE IT WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-010-012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009.

UT...&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1038 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. COLDER AIR
SLOWLY FILLING INTO THE REGION AS SFC FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. LATE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS AS RESULT...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VALUE INCLUDES SNOW
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...SO ANOTHER 2 TO 4 TODAY. SNOW LEVELS
RUNNING IN THE 5-6K RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LEVEL OUT NEAR 6K BY
MID MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR VARY BY A LARGE
MARGIN WITH THE BIGGEST WINNER SO FAR BEING PARK RESERVOIR UP ON
THE GRAND MESA WHICH IS CLIMBING PAST THE FOOT MARK WITH A SIMPLE
10 TO 1 RATIO. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET A BETTER
LOOK AT WEBCAMS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO ITS COLD PHASE AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND
SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN END OUTPACING ITS
NORTHERN PORTION. A VORT LOBE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE FAR CORNER OF
NORTHWEST CO BY 15Z WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL CO. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE LONGER OVER THE CO PORTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ENERGY WILL
REMAIN REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO THE ELK HEAD AND NORTHERN PARK RANGES SHOULD PICK UP
THEIR BEST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AS OUR STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS
SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND THE
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM TRACK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERED THE
COOLING IN THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN
FEATURE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO MEXICO AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THIS LOW...THUS PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON OUR FORECAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ENERGY OUT TO OUR
WEST...BUT EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO OUR AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROLLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT THEN CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

ILS BREAKPOINTS HAVE BEEN REACHED FOR MANY AIRPORTS THIS MORNING
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH HAS IMPROVED GREATLY WHILE SOME
LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND OCCNL RAIN CONTINUES FOR KVEL. THESE CLOUDS
WILL START LIFTING AFTER 20Z. CLOUDS WILL START LIFTING BETWEEN
23Z TO 02Z ALONG THE CO/UT BORDER TO INCLUDE KGJT KRIL KMTJ AND
POSSIBLY KTEX WHILE KASE AND KEGE WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A
FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS BUT NOT SURE IT WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-010-012-013-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023-
     025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1029 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

TODAYS STORM IS MOVING SLOWER THE MODELS PREDICTED YESTERDAY AND
LAST NIGHT. IT ALSO STRENGTHENED MORE THAN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
CO WHICH PRODUCE MORE PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH
THROUGH WEST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER NE UT AND CENTRAL AND SW CO.
HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. COLDER AIR
SLOWLY FILLING INTO THE REGION AS SFC FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. LATE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS AS RESULT...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VALUE INCLUDES SNOW
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...SO ANOTHER 2 TO 4 TODAY. SNOW LEVELS
RUNNING IN THE 5-6K RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LEVEL OUT NEAR 6K BY
MID MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR VARY BY A LARGE
MARGIN WITH THE BIGGEST WINNER SO FAR BEING PARK RESERVOIR UP ON
THE GRAND MESA WHICH IS CLIMBING PAST THE FOOT MARK WITH A SIMPLE
10 TO 1 RATIO. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET A BETTER
LOOK AT WEBCAMS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO ITS COLD PHASE AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND
SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN END OUTPACING ITS
NORTHERN PORTION. A VORT LOBE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE FAR CORNER OF
NORTHWEST CO BY 15Z WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL CO. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE LONGER OVER THE CO PORTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ENERGY WILL
REMAIN REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO THE ELK HEAD AND NORTHERN PARK RANGES SHOULD PICK UP
THEIR BEST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AS OUR STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS
SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND THE
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM TRACK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERED THE
COOLING IN THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN
FEATURE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO MEXICO AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THIS LOW...THUS PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON OUR FORECAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ENERGY OUT TO OUR
WEST...BUT EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO OUR AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROLLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT THEN CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ILS OR WORSE CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-010-012-013-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023-
     025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 446 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. COLDER AIR
SLOWLY FILLING INTO THE REGION AS SFC FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. LATE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS AS RESULT...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VALUE INCLUDES SNOW
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...SO ANOTHER 2 TO 4 TODAY. SNOW LEVELS
RUNNING IN THE 5-6K RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LEVEL OUT NEAR 6K BY
MID MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR VARY BY A LARGE
MARGIN WITH THE BIGGEST WINNER SO FAR BEING PARK RESERVOIR UP ON
THE GRAND MESA WHICH IS CLIMBING PAST THE FOOT MARK WITH A SIMPLE
10 TO 1 RATIO. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET A BETTER
LOOK AT WEBCAMS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO ITS COLD PHASE AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND
SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN END OUTPACING ITS
NORTHERN PORTION. A VORT LOBE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE FAR CORNER OF
NORTHWEST CO BY 15Z WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL CO. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE LONGER OVER THE CO PORTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ENERGY WILL
REMAIN REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO THE ELK HEAD AND NORTHERN PARK RANGES SHOULD PICK UP
THEIR BEST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AS OUR STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS
SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND THE
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM TRACK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERED THE
COOLING IN THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN
FEATURE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO MEXICO AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THIS LOW...THUS PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON OUR FORECAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ENERGY OUT TO OUR
WEST...BUT EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO OUR AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROLLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT THEN CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ILS OR WORSE CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-010-012-013-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023-
     025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 718 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVING WAY TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND...
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

650 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS WERE WORKING SE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AT 23Z AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE REMAINING IN THE LOWER-MID 40S
ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING THE CLOUDS MOVING E WHILE
EXTENDING S INTO LONG ISLAND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ALONG WARM
FRONT SHIFTING NE.

USED 22Z HRRR SKY TRENDS TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WHICH
SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT PRETTY WELL. KEPT CURRENT
TRENDS OF S-SW WINDS PICKING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS GOOD
WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING N.

TEMPS/DEWPTS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT
HAVE UPDATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL NY WILL
LIFT NORTH THRU THE AREA SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. TRUE WARM
SECTOR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND 5-7KFT. AS DEW PTS RISE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY ...

MID AFTERNOON UPDATE ...

*** NEAR RECORD WARMTH LIKELY ***

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVER PA AND CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL BE OUR AIRMASS
TOMORROW. ADDED ABOUT 3 DEGS TO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE YIELDING HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH A FEW MID 70S POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY CT AND MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEYS. SPRING FEVER! HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF BREAKING A RECORD TOMORROW WILL PVD...66/2002 AND
BDL 72/2000 WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 70 AND 74 RESPECTIVELY. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL SITES.

CONSIDERABLY COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN MARINE LAYER
COMING ONSHORE. SSTS ONLY 40-45 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S
JUST A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30
MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...

VERY MILD WITH WARM SECTOR REMAINING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS COMBINED WITH SW WINDS CONTINUING WILL YIELD A VERY MILD
NIGHT FOR EARLY MARCH WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 50S! REMEMBER NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY LOW TO MID 40S THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE CT VALLEY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY THU/THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
  WEEK

OVERVIEW...

HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX ON THU.
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...BUT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED
LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WORKING E OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...
NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS AVAILABLE BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO WILL SEE MILD
TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AS CUTOFF LOW OUT OF TEXAS TRIES TO WORK
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO SLOW SYSTEMS DOWN...SO APPEARS THAT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS THAT MAY SHIFT NE AROUND THE UPPER
FLOW. DEPENDING UP HOW THE UPPER LOW RESOLVES INTO THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...THIS MAY CAUSE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NE U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BLENDED
00Z AND 12Z OP MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SOME OF THE WPC DATA TO SLOW DOWN
PROGRESSION OF SUN-MON SYSTEM THAT APPEARS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES OFF THE SE U.S. LOOKS TO LINGER THERE AS LOW PRES AND A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS E OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN STALL
S OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. THE LOW HAS PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH IT...SO WILL SEE A DECENT SHOT FOR
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WILL SEE UP TO 0.25
INCHES ALONG THE S COAST...RANGING TO AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG THE ROUTE 2 AREA.

CURRENT TIMING KEEPS THE FRONT N OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY IF NOT INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO SW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. STILL SEE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO...EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS AROUND...COULD SEE
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSE RECORDS HIGHS FOR 3/10. RECORD
READINGS ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

AS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES E IN THE UPPER FLOW LATE THU
NIGHT...WILL SEE THE LOW PRES MOVE OFFSHORE PUSHING THE FRONT
JUST OFF THE S COAST. STEADIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT E TOWARD DAYBREAK
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH CLOSE TO 50 ACROSS THE
LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST FRI MORNING...WITH LAST OF THE
SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE BY FRI AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WORKS IN...THOUGH STILL NOTING HIGHS THAT MAY REACH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE CT...WITH 50S AT MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS EXCEPT HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT/SAT...
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BACKING TO SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

RATHER FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE HIGH STEADILY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND THE ISLANDS TO THE 50S
ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL START TO SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS
NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER DRY FRONT
CROSSES EARLY SUNDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMP CHANGES
WITH IT. HOWEVER...AS HIGH BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...
MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP.
SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO APPROACH WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT OR
MON AS A WAVE DEVELOPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS COULD LINGER INTO
TUE AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH WILL BE COOLER /MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS/ BOTH MON AND
TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CIGS BKN050-070 WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. LOW RISK OF MVFR VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG INLAND.

WEDNESDAY...LOW RISK OF PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG INLAND EARLY.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH CIGS BKN050-070 EARLY. GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 20
KT...FEW 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS BKN050-070. DRY WEATHER WITH
MODEST SW WINDS CONTINUING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS BKN050-070. DRY WEATHER TOO. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW
LATER THIS EVENING...BECOMING GUSTY SW 20-25 KT WED AFTN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WITH CIGS
BKN050-070 AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AS SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES N-S. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS
EARLY...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH MIDDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR IN WIDELY SCT SHOWERS SUNDAY...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT. SEAS AT
2-3 FT. VSBY MAY LOWER TOWARD MORNING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE RI
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT. COULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. THUS SCA NOT
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. STRONGEST
WIND NEAR SHORE GIVEN MUCH WARMER LAND TEMPS THAN SSTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEST SW WIND BECOMING WEST TOWARD THU
MORNING. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST WATERS.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LIGHT W WINDS TO SHIFT TO S
DURING THE DAY... THEN GUSTING UP TO 25 KT THU NIGHT ON THE OUTER
WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM W-E. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN SHOWERS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP
TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS FRI MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH.
SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE BUT WILL LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN
SCT SHOWERS EARLY FRI...THEN IMPROVING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W-SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT E OF CAPE COD SAT/SAT NIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT. WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO N SUNDAY
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS...THEN SHIFT TO SE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY 3/9...

BOS 72/2000...FORECAST HIGH 70
BDL 72/2000...FORECAST HIGH 74
PVD 66/2002...FORECAST HIGH 70
ORH 74/2000...FORECAST HIGH 69

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY 3/10...

BOS 71/1878
BDL 70/2006
PVD 69/1977
ORH 65/2006

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
CLIMATE...STAFF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 921 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

Updates this evening have been tied to the north-south oriented wave
of rain and isolated thunderstorms that is advancing slowly
eastward from western Illinois. The precip chances were updated to
indicate the slower eastward progression of the wave. Forecast
soundings show MUCAPES of 150-200 J/kg in our western counties,
with those conditions expanding eastward by morning. The latest HRRR
and RAP models show some drying conditions in northern IL
tomorrow, advancing southward toward I-74. Have reflected that
trend PoPs for Wed. The remainder of the forecast is generally on
track, with steady south winds at 10-15mph and lows in the upper
50s. Updated forecast info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

Will renew the ESF product to address the heavy rains in the
forecast next few days over central and southeast IL. Will hold off
on issuing flood watch overnight into Thu morning due to latest
forecast models backing off on qpf amounts with 1st round of
precipitation tonight. 999 mb surface low pressure over northern MN
has a cold front into nw IA and central KS and this front is
expected to move east into western/nw IL around 12Z/6 am Wed. This
front interacting with increasing low level jet and moisture along
with short wave ejecting from central/southern plains ne into IL
later this evening and overnight will develop showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts tonight will average a quarter to
half inch with locally higher amounts west of I-57. Breezy SSW winds
of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph giving unseasonably mild
temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon with some
sunshine. Expect clouds to increase late today into this evening and
south winds of 10-20 mph tonight to only allow temps to cool into
the upper 50s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

A heavy rain event is setting up for parts of central Illinois for
later Wednesday into Thursday, with some uncertainty as to how much
rain may occur through the weekend which may exacerbate any flooding
that does occur.

Lingering showers and t-storms from later tonight should be waning
Wednesday morning as the low level jet and moisture transport
weakens and veers toward daybreak. This could still result in a
quick 0.50 inch of rain in central IL by mid-morning.

After a brief break in the rain from late morning into early
afternoon, a low pressure center and its associated mid/upper level
support will move out of the ARKLATEX region toward the mid-
Mississippi River valley and central IL. This will combine with deep
moisture, precipitable water values in excess of 1.50" and the
increasing low level jet to produce heavy rain east of the I-55
corridor Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts
of 1.50-2.00 inches are likely in this area, with locally higher
amounts.

However, holding off on a Flash Flood Watch for now since the models
are still showing disagreement as to the location of heavy rain
potential for Wednesday night. The European model has been
consistent in showing a gradual shift east and southeast with the
heavy rain axis toward east and southeast IL, with the NAM and GFS
somewhere between the IL River and I-55 for the heavy rain axis.
Also, due to the expected lull in the rain during the day Wednesday,
and peak of rainfall holding off until Wednesday night, there is
more time to assess the situation.

A northern stream shortwave is expected to push the front and
rainfall through central and eastern IL Thursday night. A few
showers may linger in southeast IL Friday, otherwise dry conditions
will prevail with weak flow around a high pressure area moving
through the Great Lakes. The front is then expected to return
northward by Saturday as an upper level low in the Rio Grande valley
gets kicked out by a piece of energy moving across the southwestern
U.S. This will bring another round of rainfall to our region from
late Friday night through the entire weekend.

The medium range models are in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, however there are differences in the amount of rainfall
that is anticipated. The GFS is pointing toward higher rainfall
amounts in central IL than the European, particularly Saturday
night. For now will trend more toward the Euro model, but will need
to keep a close eye on this, especially if the area is inundated
from the first round of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

Lower clouds and periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will
advance into central and eastern Illinois during the late evening
hours. Much of the evening will remain in the VFR range, but as
the rain showers start to approach/develop ceilings and visibility
will work their way down into the MVFR range around or shortly
after 06z. A quick peek at the current upper air sounding data
shows a layer of dry air in the mid levels, and more moistening
that will need to take place in the lower levels below 10kft,
which lends confidence to holding off on MVFR ceilings until after
06z.

An increasing low level jet and moisture transport will result in
predominant showers and areas of thunder tonight. The short range
models are all over the place with the timing. A blend of the HRRR
and extrapolation of current convection in Missouri was used to
time in the rainfall overnight.

With the increase in moisture, periods of rain and low pressure
moving along a slow moving cold front in west central IL toward
daybreak should result in IFR ceilings in several locations across
central and eastern IL. As the cold front works its way into
central IL, broken ceilings will climb back into the MVFR
category. The exception will be in east central IL where several
model solutions point to IFR conditions persisting through the
afternoon.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Miller



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1150 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Weakening short-wave trough is currently lifting into northern
Illinois, accompanied by scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. 16z/10am radar imagery shows the bulk of the precip
has shifted east of the I-57 corridor, with dry conditions noted
further west across the Illinois River Valley. Latest HRRR
continues to show the showers quickly shifting off to the east
into Indiana over the next couple of hours, with all precip coming
to an end across the KILX CWA by 19-20z. Have updated PoPs to
better reflect current trends. Once the showers end, mostly
cloudy, breezy, and very warm conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the day. Southerly winds will gust to between 20 and
30 mph, while afternoon high temperatures climb well into the
60s. May even see a few lower 70s across the SW around
Jacksonville. Updated forecast has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Satellite images indicate an elongated wave will affect central
Illinois over the next 12 to 15 hours. The latest HRRR and RAP
guidance point towards periodic waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms progressing from SW to NE, with most areas seeing
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Instability params
are relatively weak, so convection should remain isolated for the
most part this morning, but a couple of hail reports can not be
ruled out.

Showers should depart to the northeast later this afternoon, as the
wave shifts east of the area. Clouds will still dominate the skies
through the day, but strong southerly winds will help boost high
temps well above normal. Temps should climb into the mid 60s north
of I-74, with low 70s near and west of Jacksonville. Momentum
from a 50-60kt LLJ will mix toward the surface today, producing
wind gusts of 35 mph at times, especially east of I-55 under the
strongest LLJ winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. Steady plume of moisture expected to stream northward out
of the southern Gulf of Mexico and into central Illinois, with
precipitable water values reaching around 1.2 inches by Tuesday
evening and over 1.5 inches by Wednesday evening, close to
climatological maximum for this time of year. Latest model runs
continue to shift the heaviest axis of precipitation a bit further
northwest, focusing on around 2 inches of QPF through Thursday night
from near the I-55 corridor west to the Illinois River. However,
this is not locked in stone yet, as there continues to be some
fluctuations in the frontal position midweek.

Upper trough currently off the Washington/Oregon coast will dig
significantly today along the West Coast, closing off an upper low
by evening over southern California. The track of this low is not
being handled the best by the models, with earlier projections of it
remaining over Mexico through the week now basically limited to just
the ECMWF model. The other models lift it into southwest Texas as
early as Wednesday night, with the ECMWF about 24 hours slower. A
sharpening upper trough will dig just east of the Rockies and keep
the southwest upper flow over the Midwest into Thursday, largely
keeping the upper low cut off until the weekend. This results in the
frontal boundary not fully going through the forecast area until
later Thursday.

Leading up to that point, a good chunk of tonight is looking to be
dry, with the showers developing in the richer moisture feed west of
the Mississippi River this evening, before shifting east overnight.
Highest PoP`s will mainly be over the Illinois River valley with
slight chances as far east as I-55. Eastern CWA likely to remain dry
until late Tuesday afternoon. Categorical PoP`s focused from about
Decatur northwest Tuesday night before shifting eastward, as a wave
of low pressure rides northeast along the front. Have lingered 80%
PoP`s into Thursday morning over the southeast CWA.

In the longer range, the handling of the upper low late week leads
to significant differences in returning the front and associated
precipitation shield northward. Have tried to follow the slower
solution offered by the ECMWF, but overall confidence in the rain
forecast that far out is rather low at this point.

Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the 18z TAF period.
Short-wave trough responsible for the showers earlier this morning
has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes, with lingering light
rain showers now confined to areas east of the I-57 corridor. VFR
ceilings of around 5000ft are common in its wake, although
visible satellite imagery is showing some large breaks in the
overcast upstream across Missouri. Think these breaks will fill
in, leading to a mostly cloudy but dry afternoon/evening. Next
wave will approach from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday
morning, spreading low clouds and showers back into the area.
Based on NAM forecast soundings, light rain and MVFR ceilings may
develop after 13/14z at the western terminals. Have lowered
ceilings accordingly, but have maintained VFR ceilings further
east at KDEC and KCMI through 18z. Winds will be strong/gusty from
the south through the entire period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1002 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Weakening short-wave trough is currently lifting into northern
Illinois, accompanied by scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. 16z/10am radar imagery shows the bulk of the precip
has shifted east of the I-57 corridor, with dry conditions noted
further west across the Illinois River Valley. Latest HRRR
continues to show the showers quickly shifting off to the east
into Indiana over the next couple of hours, with all precip coming
to an end across the KILX CWA by 19-20z. Have updated PoPs to
better reflect current trends. Once the showers end, mostly
cloudy, breezy, and very warm conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the day. Southerly winds will gust to between 20 and
30 mph, while afternoon high temperatures climb well into the
60s. May even see a few lower 70s across the SW around
Jacksonville. Updated forecast has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Satellite images indicate an elongated wave will affect central
Illinois over the next 12 to 15 hours. The latest HRRR and RAP
guidance point towards periodic waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms progressing from SW to NE, with most areas seeing
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Instability params
are relatively weak, so convection should remain isolated for the
most part this morning, but a couple of hail reports can not be
ruled out.

Showers should depart to the northeast later this afternoon, as the
wave shifts east of the area. Clouds will still dominate the skies
through the day, but strong southerly winds will help boost high
temps well above normal. Temps should climb into the mid 60s north
of I-74, with low 70s near and west of Jacksonville. Momentum
from a 50-60kt LLJ will mix toward the surface today, producing
wind gusts of 35 mph at times, especially east of I-55 under the
strongest LLJ winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. Steady plume of moisture expected to stream northward out
of the southern Gulf of Mexico and into central Illinois, with
precipitable water values reaching around 1.2 inches by Tuesday
evening and over 1.5 inches by Wednesday evening, close to
climatological maximum for this time of year. Latest model runs
continue to shift the heaviest axis of precipitation a bit further
northwest, focusing on around 2 inches of QPF through Thursday night
from near the I-55 corridor west to the Illinois River. However,
this is not locked in stone yet, as there continues to be some
fluctuations in the frontal position midweek.

Upper trough currently off the Washington/Oregon coast will dig
significantly today along the West Coast, closing off an upper low
by evening over southern California. The track of this low is not
being handled the best by the models, with earlier projections of it
remaining over Mexico through the week now basically limited to just
the ECMWF model. The other models lift it into southwest Texas as
early as Wednesday night, with the ECMWF about 24 hours slower. A
sharpening upper trough will dig just east of the Rockies and keep
the southwest upper flow over the Midwest into Thursday, largely
keeping the upper low cut off until the weekend. This results in the
frontal boundary not fully going through the forecast area until
later Thursday.

Leading up to that point, a good chunk of tonight is looking to be
dry, with the showers developing in the richer moisture feed west of
the Mississippi River this evening, before shifting east overnight.
Highest PoP`s will mainly be over the Illinois River valley with
slight chances as far east as I-55. Eastern CWA likely to remain dry
until late Tuesday afternoon. Categorical PoP`s focused from about
Decatur northwest Tuesday night before shifting eastward, as a wave
of low pressure rides northeast along the front. Have lingered 80%
PoP`s into Thursday morning over the southeast CWA.

In the longer range, the handling of the upper low late week leads
to significant differences in returning the front and associated
precipitation shield northward. Have tried to follow the slower
solution offered by the ECMWF, but overall confidence in the rain
forecast that far out is rather low at this point.

Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR conditions are generally expected to continue for much of the
next 24 hours, despite showers and isolated thunderstorms this
morning, and again late tonight west of I-55. Forecast soundings
suggest the cigs should remain just above MVFR for the most part,
but if a thunderstorm affects a TAF site a brief period of MVFR
conditions could occur. The shortwave driving this mornings
precipitation will progress northeast of our counties this
afternoon, bringing an end to the precip chances from SW to NE
between 16z and 20z.

ILX VAD wind profile shows LLWS conditions could persist another
hour or two before surface winds increase from the south.
Sustained winds will increase to 15-18kt with gusts to 25-30kt
possible. The GFS model is indicating wind speeds remaining gusty
tonight, while the NAM shows some decoupling possible. We leaned
toward keeping the gusts going. Time height cross sections point
toward possible LLWS shear conditions after midnight tonight, if
surface winds decouple.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 556 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Satellite images indicate an elongated wave will affect central
Illinois over the next 12 to 15 hours. The latest HRRR and RAP
guidance point towards periodic waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms progressing from SW to NE, with most areas seeing
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Instability params
are relatively weak, so convection should remain isolated for the
most part this morning, but a couple of hail reports can not be
ruled out.

Showers should depart to the northeast later this afternoon, as the
wave shifts east of the area. Clouds will still dominate the skies
through the day, but strong southerly winds will help boost high
temps well above normal. Temps should climb into the mid 60s north
of I-74, with low 70s near and west of Jacksonville. Momentum
from a 50-60kt LLJ will mix toward the surface today, producing
wind gusts of 35 mph at times, especially east of I-55 under the
strongest LLJ winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. Steady plume of moisture expected to stream northward out
of the southern Gulf of Mexico and into central Illinois, with
precipitable water values reaching around 1.2 inches by Tuesday
evening and over 1.5 inches by Wednesday evening, close to
climatological maximum for this time of year. Latest model runs
continue to shift the heaviest axis of precipitation a bit further
northwest, focusing on around 2 inches of QPF through Thursday night
from near the I-55 corridor west to the Illinois River. However,
this is not locked in stone yet, as there continues to be some
fluctuations in the frontal position midweek.

Upper trough currently off the Washington/Oregon coast will dig
significantly today along the West Coast, closing off an upper low
by evening over southern California. The track of this low is not
being handled the best by the models, with earlier projections of it
remaining over Mexico through the week now basically limited to just
the ECMWF model. The other models lift it into southwest Texas as
early as Wednesday night, with the ECMWF about 24 hours slower. A
sharpening upper trough will dig just east of the Rockies and keep
the southwest upper flow over the Midwest into Thursday, largely
keeping the upper low cut off until the weekend. This results in the
frontal boundary not fully going through the forecast area until
later Thursday.

Leading up to that point, a good chunk of tonight is looking to be
dry, with the showers developing in the richer moisture feed west of
the Mississippi River this evening, before shifting east overnight.
Highest PoP`s will mainly be over the Illinois River valley with
slight chances as far east as I-55. Eastern CWA likely to remain dry
until late Tuesday afternoon. Categorical PoP`s focused from about
Decatur northwest Tuesday night before shifting eastward, as a wave
of low pressure rides northeast along the front. Have lingered 80%
PoP`s into Thursday morning over the southeast CWA.

In the longer range, the handling of the upper low late week leads
to significant differences in returning the front and associated
precipitation shield northward. Have tried to follow the slower
solution offered by the ECMWF, but overall confidence in the rain
forecast that far out is rather low at this point.

Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR conditions are generally expected to continue for much of the
next 24 hours, despite showers and isolated thunderstorms this
morning, and again late tonight west of I-55. Forecast soundings
suggest the cigs should remain just above MVFR for the most part,
but if a thunderstorm affects a TAF site a brief period of MVFR
conditions could occur. The shortwave driving this mornings
precipitation will progress northeast of our counties this
afternoon, bringing an end to the precip chances from SW to NE
between 16z and 20z.

ILX VAD wind profile shows LLWS conditions could persist another
hour or two before surface winds increase from the south.
Sustained winds will increase to 15-18kt with gusts to 25-30kt
possible. The GFS model is indicating wind speeds remaining gusty
tonight, while the NAM shows some decoupling possible. We leaned
toward keeping the gusts going. Time height cross sections point
toward possible LLWS shear conditions after midnight tonight, if
surface winds decouple.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 244 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Satellite images indicate an elongated wave will affect central
Illinois over the next 12 to 15 hours. The latest HRRR and RAP
guidance point towards periodic waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms progressing from SW to NE, with most areas seeing
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Instability params
are relatively weak, so convection should remain isolated for the
most part this morning, but a couple of hail reports can not be
ruled out.

Showers should depart to the northeast later this afternoon, as the
wave shifts east of the area. Clouds will still dominate the skies
through the day, but strong southerly winds will help boost high
temps well above normal. Temps should climb into the mid 60s north
of I-74, with low 70s near and west of Jacksonville. Momentum
from a 50-60kt LLJ will mix toward the surface today, producing
wind gusts of 35 mph at times, especially east of I-55 under the
strongest LLJ winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. Steady plume of moisture expected to stream northward out
of the southern Gulf of Mexico and into central Illinois, with
precipitable water values reaching around 1.2 inches by Tuesday
evening and over 1.5 inches by Wednesday evening, close to
climatological maximum for this time of year. Latest model runs
continue to shift the heaviest axis of precipitation a bit further
northwest, focusing on around 2 inches of QPF through Thursday night
from near the I-55 corridor west to the Illinois River. However,
this is not locked in stone yet, as there continues to be some
fluctuations in the frontal position midweek.

Upper trough currently off the Washington/Oregon coast will dig
significantly today along the West Coast, closing off an upper low
by evening over southern California. The track of this low is not
being handled the best by the models, with earlier projections of it
remaining over Mexico through the week now basically limited to just
the ECMWF model. The other models lift it into southwest Texas as
early as Wednesday night, with the ECMWF about 24 hours slower. A
sharpening upper trough will dig just east of the Rockies and keep
the southwest upper flow over the Midwest into Thursday, largely
keeping the upper low cut off until the weekend. This results in the
frontal boundary not fully going through the forecast area until
later Thursday.

Leading up to that point, a good chunk of tonight is looking to be
dry, with the showers developing in the richer moisture feed west of
the Mississippi River this evening, before shifting east overnight.
Highest PoP`s will mainly be over the Illinois River valley with
slight chances as far east as I-55. Eastern CWA likely to remain dry
until late Tuesday afternoon. Categorical PoP`s focused from about
Decatur northwest Tuesday night before shifting eastward, as a wave
of low pressure rides northeast along the front. Have lingered 80%
PoP`s into Thursday morning over the southeast CWA.

In the longer range, the handling of the upper low late week leads
to significant differences in returning the front and associated
precipitation shield northward. Have tried to follow the slower
solution offered by the ECMWF, but overall confidence in the rain
forecast that far out is rather low at this point.

Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Clouds continue to slowly lower and thicken this evening ahead of
a weather weather disturbance slated to move across the area
Monday. Seeing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing west of STL now and expect some of that activity to
affect our TAF sites during the early morning hours of Monday.
Just what affect any of the rain will have on cigs and vsbys
will be the main forecast challenge. Forecast soundings suggest
a lowering of the cigs across our western TAF sites to MVFR for
a brief period of time, especially at PIA and SPI, before
returning to VFR conditions by mid to late afternoon and then
continuing through the evening as the upper wave moves off to
our east.

ILX VAD wind profile indicating southerly winds at 50-55 kts in
the 1500-2000 foot level and expect that to continue overnight.
Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction through the
early morning hours at 12 to 17 kts with an occasional gust around
23 kts. Gusty southerly winds will continue on Monday with speeds
in the 15 to 20 kt range with gusts approaching 27 kts at times,
with speeds lowering to between 12 to 17 kts after 00z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1101 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

The combination of a rather gusty south wind and extensive mid and
high level cloud cover should help keep temperatures on the mild
side tonight. We continue to watch a weak shortwave trof out to
our west that will bring in an increasing threat for showers
and possibly a thunderstorm or two, especially Monday morning.
00Z ILX sounding still quite dry from the surface up to 15000
feet, but forecast soundings off the RAP model continue to
moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere late tonight as
the aforementioned upper disturbance approaches. Initially,
with the rather unfavorable environment for convection later
tonight, most of the precip will be mainly showers. However,
as we continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere
towards morning with the approach of the shortwave, there
may be enough elevated cape to help spark some isolated storms
at times during the morning.

As the shortwave shifts off to our northeast by afternoon, our
rain chances will take a break for at least 12 hours before the
next wave of showers affects mainly west central IL early Tuesday
morning. The current forecast has these trends handled well, so
other than some minor tweaks to the hourly temperatures, no other
changes were needed that would warrant a zone update at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Short-wave trough evident on 19z/1pm water vapor imagery over Kansas
will ripple northeastward, spreading clouds and eventually a few
showers into portions of central Illinois tonight.  Airmass is
initially quite dry below 500mb as evidenced by current LAPS
soundings, so think precip may be even slower to arrive than some
models would suggest.  NAM/GFS/SREF indicate showers spreading in
from the southwest between 06z and 09z: however, the Rapid Refresh
delays precip until after 09z.  At this point, will only carry
slight chance PoPs west of I-55 by mid to late evening, then will
ramp up to high chance after midnight.  NAM forecast soundings show
modest elevated instability developing overnight, with MUCAPE values
of 100-150J/kg.  Will therefore mention isolated thunder as well.
Further east, conditions will remain dry east of the I-57 corridor
through the night.  Will be a breezy and mild night, with overnight
lows remaining in the middle to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

A much warmer and wetter pattern will develop over the next few days
as a large scale ridge currently over the central U.S. shifts
eastward allowing a plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture to position
over central Illinois and the surrounding area along with a somewhat
stationary frontal boundary. Current GFS model progs bring
precipitable water values of 1 to 1.3 inches from the period from
Monday morning through at least midweek, which would be near maximum
values for this time of year. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary is
expected to move into the area and linger Wednesday into Thursday.
The exact movement of this boundary remains somewhat uncertain, but
it will play a large role in where periods of heavier precipitation
will set up. Nevertheless, midweek, especially Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning looks to have the best chance for heavy
precipitation, especially I-72 southward. Initially, however, a
couple of weaker disturbances will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Monday a strong low level jet combined with rich
moisture will continue to affect areas mainly west of I-57 early in
the day. Additional disturbances moving into the upper Midwest along
the approaching frontal boundary will bring more showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night, again primarily west of I-
57.

Toward the end of the forecast period next weekend...a low
originating as a cut-off low over Mexico midweek could become a
factor in developing more precipitation over central IL, however
latest trends have been to slow down the feature and eject it more
toward the southeastern U.S. instead of the Midwest. Nevertheless,
it still bears watching.

High temperatures should reach the mid to upper 60s Monday and
Tuesday before falling somewhat to the neighborhood of 60 to 65 the
remainder of the week and next weekend as the frontal boundary slips
off to the south. Of course, the position of the boundary and exact
timing of the precipitation periods will have impacts on these
temperatures later in the week. Lows will remain in the 50s Monday
night and Tuesday night, followed by cooler but still mild readings
in the 40s and mainly lower 50s the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Clouds continue to slowly lower and thicken this evening ahead of
a weather weather disturbance slated to move across the area
Monday. Seeing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing west of STL now and expect some of that activity to
affect our TAF sites during the early morning hours of Monday.
Just what affect any of the rain will have on cigs and vsbys
will be the main forecast challenge. Forecast soundings suggest
a lowering of the cigs across our western TAF sites to MVFR for
a brief period of time, especially at PIA and SPI, before
returning to VFR conditions by mid to late afternoon and then
continuing through the evening as the upper wave moves off to
our east.

ILX VAD wind profile indicating southerly winds at 50-55 kts in
the 1500-2000 foot level and expect that to continue overnight.
Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction through the
early morning hours at 12 to 17 kts with an occasional gust around
23 kts. Gusty southerly winds will continue on Monday with speeds
in the 15 to 20 kt range with gusts approaching 27 kts at times,
with speeds lowering to between 12 to 17 kts after 00z.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 939 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS ON LEADING EDGE ARRIVING
A BIT FASTER...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOOKS TO TAPER OFF QUICKER WITH
BACK EDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO NORTHEAST MO. HAVE
THEREFORE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THESE TRENDS WITH HIGHEST POPS AND
GREATEST QPF THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT UNTIL FRONT PASSES. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY AROUND 0.5 INCH. HAVE ALSO LOWERED PRECIP FROM QUAD
CITIES E/SE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST ARRIVING GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA... WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVANCING NEWD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN THE PLAINS.

OBSERVATION AND RAP MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A NEW ROUND OF MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEEN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS
TO SIGOURNEY IOWA LINE.

RAP AND OTHER MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEEN DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. SOUTH OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

INTERNALLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BEING DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CUTOFF LOW AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.  WITH THE LOW CUTOFF
TO THE SOUTH AND NO APPRECIABLE WAVE TO KICK IT OUT...THE MODELS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PRODUCE PRECIP WITH THE SSW FLOW AS WAVES
TRANSVERSES THE FLOW BEFORE IT MOVES OUT.  OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR
THOSE SYSTEMS TO CLIP THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE 18Z NAM IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE QPF OUT OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SWATH OF QPF.
THE BULK OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO FALL FROM ST LOUIS TO THE SOUTH SIDE
OF CHICAGO.  EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS TREND KEEPS UP AND MOST OF THE QPF ACTUALLY MISSES THE CWA.  MY
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE OVERDONE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE TREND THAT THE ECMWF AND GEM
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...THE GFS FINALLY BOUGHT INTO WITH H5 RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH NO WAVE TO KICK OUT THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TX...THIS RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH TEMPS THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.  THE NEXT WAVE
DOESNT APPROACH THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK NORTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE
AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA.  MY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS LOW AS CLOSED LOWS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.  I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...BUT I DONT THINK IT WILL LAST THE WHOLE TIME.  AS THE NEXT
WAVE HITS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...FORECAST SKILL SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WILL START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST ON AN OCCASIONAL BASIS FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES. CONDITIONS IN THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DROP TO MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR AT TIMES. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT... THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COOLER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY 08Z THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 552 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN THE PLAINS.

OBSERVATION AND RAP MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A NEW ROUND OF MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEEN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS
TO SIGOURNEY IOWA LINE.

RAP AND OTHER MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEEN DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. SOUTH OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

INTERNALLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BEING DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CUTOFF LOW AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.  WITH THE LOW CUTOFF
TO THE SOUTH AND NO APPRECIABLE WAVE TO KICK IT OUT...THE MODELS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PRODUCE PRECIP WITH THE SSW FLOW AS WAVES
TRANSVERSES THE FLOW BEFORE IT MOVES OUT.  OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR
THOSE SYSTEMS TO CLIP THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE 18Z NAM IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE QPF OUT OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SWATH OF QPF.
THE BULK OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO FALL FROM ST LOUIS TO THE SOUTH SIDE
OF CHICAGO.  EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS TREND KEEPS UP AND MOST OF THE QPF ACTUALLY MISSES THE CWA.  MY
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE OVERDONE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE TREND THAT THE ECMWF AND GEM
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...THE GFS FINALLY BOUGHT INTO WITH H5 RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH NO WAVE TO KICK OUT THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TX...THIS RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH TEMPS THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.  THE NEXT WAVE
DOESNT APPROACH THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK NORTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE
AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA.  MY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS LOW AS CLOSED LOWS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.  I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...BUT I DONT THINK IT WILL LAST THE WHOLE TIME.  AS THE NEXT
WAVE HITS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...FORECAST SKILL SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WILL START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST ON AN OCCASIONAL BASIS FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES. CONDITIONS IN THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DROP TO MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR AT TIMES. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT... THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COOLER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY 08Z THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 353 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CA/
NORTHERN BAJA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS DRIFTING E
OVER EASTERN CO. DOWNSTAIRS A DRY LINE CURVED FROM AROUND KHLC THRU
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN KPTT & KDDC TO JUST W OF KGAG. ACROSS THE KICT
NEIGHBORHOOD...SLY 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT MID &
UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) EXTREME FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL ALONG & W OF K-14 UNTIL 7 PM CST.
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG & JUST E OF DRY LINE THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT:
THE FIRST 2 ISSUES ARE THE RED FLAG WARNING & WIND ADVISORY THAT
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS & MOST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG & W OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STRUGGLING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREAS WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAGS HOISTED AS SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN STIFF THIS EVENING.
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SW FLANK OF OUR CWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OVER COMANCHE...BARBER & PRATT
COUNTIES ~6 PM. FOR NOW THE CAP LOCATED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER IS
TIGHT OVER OUR SWRN-MOST COUNTIES...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE FROM
EASTERN OK TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/SD BORDER A "PACIFIC"
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TOWARD CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
THE GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST
KS.

TUE-WED NIGHT:
AS THE FAR SWRN MID-UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK E TOWARD THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN W TX/TX
PANHANDLE REGION. THE FRONT WOULD STALL THEN UNDERGO WARM FRONTO-
GENESIS ON TUE. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING N THEN NW ACROSS EASTERN KS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING FURTHER INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. AS THE SFC CYCLONE PUSHES E ACROSS E TX...WIDESPREAD
RAINS WOULD WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE WITH SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN
THE BENEFICIARY OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREE ON IT`S TRACK WITH GFS FURTHER N
OVER E TX THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT POSITIONED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE. THIS WOULD OF COURSE HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW. CONSIDERING THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE
GULF TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SLOWER ECMWF IS PREFERRED. AS
SUCH WRAP-AROUND RAINS WOULD SPREAD FURTHER W ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH SOMEWHAT OF ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE GREATER UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

STRATUS WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. WHILE MAINLY MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SOME LOCALES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL EXIST TOWARD 00Z
ALONG THE DRY-LINE IN CENTRAL KANSAS...A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ELEVATED STORMS WILL EXIST LATER
TONIGHT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MERGES
WITH THE DRYLINE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THE CONTINUED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER INDICES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE WORK-WEEK. WILL HOWEVER
KEEP THE RED FLAGS HOISTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135
UNTIL 7 PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  67  48  63 /  30  50  40  20
HUTCHINSON      53  67  45  64 /  20  30  30  10
NEWTON          55  66  47  62 /  20  40  40  20
ELDORADO        56  67  49  63 /  40  60  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  67  50  64 /  40  70  50  30
RUSSELL         45  66  40  63 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      45  66  41  63 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          53  68  44  64 /  20  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       53  66  44  62 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  69  54  64 /  50  80  70  50
CHANUTE         58  69  52  64 /  50  80  70  40
IOLA            58  67  52  63 /  50  80  70  40
PARSONS-KPPF    59  68  53  64 /  50  80  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. KENTUCKY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING IN WARMER
AIR AND SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. THIS RISE WAS DESPITE
ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY AS A HIGH LAYER OF RATHER THICK CLOUDS
MOVED OVER THE STATE. AT 3 PM...READINGS HAD MADE IT TO THE LOW
AND MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OR SO.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING DEEP AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...KEEPING THE RIDGE STRONG OVER
THE AREA LONGER. KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM MEANING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR OUR AREA. WHILE SOME SHORTWAVES...LIKE THE ONE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...THE
STRONGER ONES WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THEY THIN AND BREAK UP HEADING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS...AND SOME MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
SHOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAY THIS MORNING. EVEN SO...IN
GENERAL...A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MORE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS WITH LESSER DIFFERENCES ELSEWHERE. AGAIN
WOULD EXPECT THE DIURNAL T CURVE TO BE SHARP AFTER SUNSET FOR
THESE VALLEYS AS THEY QUICKLY DROP OFF. TUESDAY WILL BE AN EVEN
NICER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TAKING OFF TO THE LOW AND MID 70S BY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER RELATIVE TERRAIN BASED TEMPERATURE SPLIT...MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE
FOR FOG EITHER NIGHT.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TONIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DISTINCTION...ESPECIALLY
EAST. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY KEPT THEM ZEROED OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO WANT TO BUDGE. IN FACT...THE
FEATURE THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE HIGH EAST IS SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIP THROUGH KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ULTIMATELY FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. SO...UNTIL THESE MODELS
CAN LATCH ONTO THE FEATURE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EVOLUTION OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS...EXPECT CONTINUED DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER CONSISTS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. DECENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND
ITSELF TO WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 OR
20 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TAF STIES...INCLUDING
SYM...SME...AND LOZ. THESE WINDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A RISK FOR LLWS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH...OWING TO WINDS ZIPPING ALONG JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WHILE THE BULK OF THE AREA DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL
THEN RESUME TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND DIRECTION AS TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 120 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST T/TD/SKY OBS AND
TRENDS INTO THEIR PERSPECTIVE GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP TODAY
AS A RESULT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE DESPITE AN AMPLE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE STATE. CURRENTLY...READINGS
ARE REBOUNDING FROM CHILLY VALLEY LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHILE THE MILDER RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS
HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ATTM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR T/TD GRIDS AS WELL AS FINE TUNING THE SKY GRIDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

CONDITIONS REMAIN CALM ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. AS
WE CONTINUE TO SIT UNDER A STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE VARIED QUITE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN THE VALLEYS
AND THE RIDGES. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED
IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT INVERSION TO LESSON AND THESE
DIFFERENCES TO MITIGATE THEMSELVES AS TEMPERATURES WARM. A DENSER SHIELD
OF HIGHER CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGES FROM
THE ONGOING TEMP FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED
AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
HERE AT JKL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS A
WAVE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY PASSING NE ACROSS WESTERN KY...WHICH HAS
DIRECTED SOME MOISTURE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE FOR THE
CWA. THIS...COUPLED WITH A SHARP NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION...HAS
CONTINUED TO CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH
ELEVATION. EXPECT THIS RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BETTER MIXING TAKES
HOLD AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE A
STRONGHOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT BOWLING BALLS SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
BARREL ESE-WARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE
DEEPENING NATURE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY WORK TO AMPLIFY
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES THE
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. BY TUESDAY EVENING...KY WILL FIND ITSELF
TRANSITIONING TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND STARTING TO
TAP INTO SOME OF THE STRONGER SW TO NE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD...THE STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE IN ADDITION TO WARM SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM DISTURBANCES PASSING WEST AND NORTH
OF THE REGION. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE IS VERY DRY HOWEVER...SO STILL
LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL RH AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WHEN DECENT MIXING COULD PULL SOME
IMPRESSIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RIGHT NOW MOST
LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE RH LEVELS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULDN/T RULE OUT SOME RH IN THE
TEENS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON IF ANY HIGHER GUSTS
RESULT IN DEW POINT MIX DOWNS. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR TONIGHT NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP IT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT MUCH IN THE SAME AS TODAY...THOUGH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM FURTHER
INTO THE LOW 70S. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY STARTS ITS TRANSITION
EASTWARD...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE THIS OVERALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER FOR THE DAY...IT WILL AT LEAST KEEP RH LEVELS SLIGHTLY MORE
AT BAY...IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM MUCH OF FAR EASTERN
KY...INCREASING AS YOU HEAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENTRENCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF TEXAS INTO THE APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOWLY
MIGRATING UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. RAINFALL CHANCES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STEMMING FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE DELAYED IN THEIR ARRIVAL THIS WEEK AS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW HOLDS INFLUENCE LOCALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT DIGGING AND SLOW
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SAID UPPER DISTURBANCE.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND POINTS EAST...AS GULF MOISTURE
SLOWLY BENDS EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JOURNEYING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. STUBBORN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MID
TO SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ATLANTIC COAST MAY VERY WELL KEEP THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS DRY UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
COMMONWEALTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INTERACTION/PHASING OF THIS
FEATURE WITH INITIAL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THIS PERIOD MAY POTENTIALLY SEE THE MOST VIGOROUS LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WITHOUT A PLETHORA OF EARLIER DAY RAIN...THUS
MAINTAINING A BETTER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO AS PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CREATE TOO STRONG OF A CAP TO PUNCH
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS
HUNG UP AND WASHED OUT WELL OFF TO THE NORTH.

A WARM FRONT BRINGING BONAFIDE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD
BET AT SOME POINT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT ISSUES
RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN UPPER LOW PRECLUDE
PINPOINTING THIS AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY ALSO VERY
WELL BE A NUMBER OF PERIODS CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL
DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS BECOME BETTER VISUALIZED LATER INTO
THIS WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH DOES HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE A CERTAINTY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S
FROM MID-LATE WEEK BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT THICK MID CLOUD COVER REMAINS
SUPPRESSED WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RIVAL NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. DECENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND
ITSELF TO WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 OR
20 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TAF STIES...INCLUDING
SYM...SME...AND LOZ. THESE WINDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A RISK FOR LLWS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH...OWING TO WINDS ZIPPING ALONG JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WHILE THE BULK OF THE AREA DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL
THEN RESUME TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND DIRECTION AS TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1138 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

An upper-level impulse has been producing some weak echoes as it
moves northeast along the northwest periphery of the region, and
recent HRRR runs are showing a bit more coverage in our forecast
area, especially along I-64 in southern Illinois just after
12z. Went ahead and added in isolated showers in that area through
around 15Z.

South winds have begun gusting into the teens over western portions
of the area and temperatures have been climbing into/through the
50s in the last couple of hours. See little reason for
temperatures to fall much from current levels, which means a
warmer start to the day than previously expected. All of the cloud
cover will be in the mid and upper-levels, so with some
insolation expected, highs today should climb to near 70 over much
of the region. We may not be warm enough, if the sun can pop out
for awhile anywhere.

The south winds will increase and become quite gusty, with 30-35
mph gusts possible. Guidance has been pretty consistent here, but
current VWPs from area radars show 60-65kts of southwest flow at
925mb. Certainly won`t be surprised if gusts are greater than
forecast, especially if/where the sun pops out and causes better
mixing.

Tonight should be a near repeat of this morning with persistent
south winds and plenty of cloud cover. Definitely playing the warm
side of guidance for lows.

As for the rain event, the 00Z models continue to trend slower
with the onset and northeastward spread of the more widespread
showers. The 00Z 4km WRF runs keep the entire area dry through the
day Tuesday, which is very similar to the 00Z NAM. Backed PoPs
down to slight chance/chance levels and confined them to southeast
Missouri on Tuesday afternoon.

A couple of swaths of showers will eventually pass north northeast
through southeast Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. But even
this activity will be moving along, so QPF amounts will be
stunted a bit. Model soundings still are not showing much
instability, so thunderstorms still appear to be limited. The
flood potential through Wednesday is definitely trending downward
even in southeast Missouri.

Will confine likely to categorical PoPs Tuesday night to southeast
Missouri, and then spread them into southern Illinois Wednesday.
Not sure if portions of west Kentucky or southwest Indiana will
get wet at all through the end of the day Wednesday.

With the drier trend Tuesday through Wednesday, also have trended
warmer with temperatures. There are likely to be lots of lower and
middle 70s for highs over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Models are in good agreement showing the cold front extending from
the southern Great Lakes region into southwest Missouri at 12z
Thursday.  ECMWF then pushes the front just south of our region by
12z Friday, while GFS and the Canadian hang the front across the PAH
forecast area.  Models have varied quite a bit over the last several
runs of just how far south the front will move and how quickly it
will come back north, but have agreed in the overall trend of moving
moving the axis of greatest QPF a little farther west.  Widespread
showers will spread east across the region Wednesday night and
continue through Thursday into Thursday night.  Models differences
lower confidence somewhat as we get into Friday and through the
weekend, but all show showers continuing, but the focus of highest
QPF differs.  Went with likely precipitation south to chance north
on Friday, then kept precipitation in the chance category Friday
night and through the weekend.

Most significant QPF in the long term will be Wednesday night into
Thursday, with 1 to 2 inch totals possible in that 24 hour period
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far west Kentucky,
with lesser amounts to the east.  The Ozark foothills may see
slightly higher amounts.  After Thursday, QPF amounts will drop off
quite a bit, though again with the uncertainty in the models, the
timing and amounts will need continued adjustments.  Also, although
the instability remains unimpressive, any thunderstorms that develop
could produce some heavier rainfall amounts.  The best chances of
thunderstorms will be mostly across the southern half of the PAH
forecast area.

Temperatures will remain incredibly warm through the extended, with
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals, and
overnight lows 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1138 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern this afternoon will be the south winds gusting to
around 25-30 kts. Mid-level cigs will continue through the
period. Sfc Winds will decrease to around 10 kts this
evening/overnight, which combined with winds of around 50 kts
around 2000ft should lead to LLWS developing at all terminals
again. Models hinting at low level moisture working in from the
W/SW which will likely lead to MVFR cigs developing at KCGI by
morning and possibly during the overnight hrs. KPAH should see low
VFR cigs by morning and some potential at MFVR cigs developing
there as well. South winds will increase again by mid morning with
gusts up around 20 kts.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 657 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

CONDITIONS REMAIN CALM ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. AS
WE CONTINUE TO SIT UNDER A STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE VARIED QUITE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN THE VALLEYS
AND THE RIDGES. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED
IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT INVERSION TO LESSON AND THESE
DIFFERENCES TO MITIGATE THEMSELVES AS TEMPERATURES WARM. A DENSER SHIELD
OF HIGHER CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGES FROM
THE ONGOING TEMP FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED
AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
HERE AT JKL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS A
WAVE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY PASSING NE ACROSS WESTERN KY...WHICH HAS
DIRECTED SOME MOISTURE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE FOR THE
CWA. THIS...COUPLED WITH A SHARP NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION...HAS
CONTINUED TO CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH
ELEVATION. EXPECT THIS RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BETTER MIXING TAKES
HOLD AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE A
STRONGHOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT BOWLING BALLS SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
BARREL ESE-WARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE
DEEPENING NATURE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY WORK TO AMPLIFY
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES THE
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. BY TUESDAY EVENING...KY WILL FIND ITSELF
TRANSITIONING TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND STARTING TO
TAP INTO SOME OF THE STRONGER SW TO NE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD...THE STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE IN ADDITION TO WARM SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM DISTURBANCES PASSING WEST AND NORTH
OF THE REGION. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE IS VERY DRY HOWEVER...SO STILL
LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL RH AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WHEN DECENT MIXING COULD PULL SOME
IMPRESSIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RIGHT NOW MOST
LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE RH LEVELS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULDN/T RULE OUT SOME RH IN THE
TEENS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON IF ANY HIGHER GUSTS
RESULT IN DEW POINT MIX DOWNS. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR TONIGHT NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP IT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT MUCH IN THE SAME AS TODAY...THOUGH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM FURTHER
INTO THE LOW 70S. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY STARTS ITS TRANSITION
EASTWARD...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE THIS OVERALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER FOR THE DAY...IT WILL AT LEAST KEEP RH LEVELS SLIGHTLY MORE
AT BAY...IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM MUCH OF FAR EASTERN
KY...INCREASING AS YOU HEAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENTRENCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF TEXAS INTO THE APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOWLY
MIGRATING UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. RAINFALL CHANCES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STEMMING FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE DELAYED IN THEIR ARRIVAL THIS WEEK AS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW HOLDS INFLUENCE LOCALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT DIGGING AND SLOW
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SAID UPPER DISTURBANCE.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND POINTS EAST...AS GULF MOISTURE
SLOWLY BENDS EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JOURNEYING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. STUBBORN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MID
TO SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ATLANTIC COAST MAY VERY WELL KEEP THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS DRY UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
COMMONWEALTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INTERACTION/PHASING OF THIS
FEATURE WITH INITIAL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THIS PERIOD MAY POTENTIALLY SEE THE MOST VIGOROUS LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WITHOUT A PLETHORA OF EARLIER DAY RAIN...THUS
MAINTAINING A BETTER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO AS PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CREATE TOO STRONG OF A CAP TO PUNCH
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS
HUNG UP AND WASHED OUT WELL OFF TO THE NORTH.

A WARM FRONT BRINGING BONAFIDE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD
BET AT SOME POINT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT ISSUES
RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN UPPER LOW PRECLUDE
PINPOINTING THIS AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY ALSO VERY
WELL BE A NUMBER OF PERIODS CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL
DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS BECOME BETTER VISUALIZED LATER INTO
THIS WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH DOES HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE A CERTAINTY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S
FROM MID-LATE WEEK BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT THICK MID CLOUD COVER REMAINS
SUPPRESSED WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RIVAL NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DECENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEND ITSELF TO
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS...AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
15KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF STIES...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ. THESE
WINDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...JMW




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
532 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 433 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

A few lightning strikes have developed over southern Illinois, and
current radar trends suggest that a few rumbles will be possible
for the next 3 hours or so, mainly west of Interstate 57 and
north of Highway 13. The forecast has been updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

An upper-level impulse has been producing some weak echoes as it
moves northeast along the northwest periphery of the region, and
recent HRRR runs are showing a bit more coverage in our forecast
area, especially along I-64 in southern Illinois just after
12z. Went ahead and added in isolated showers in that area through
around 15Z.

South winds have begun gusting into the teens over western portions
of the area and temperatures have been climbing into/through the
50s in the last couple of hours. See little reason for
temperatures to fall much from current levels, which means a
warmer start to the day than previously expected. All of the cloud
cover will be in the mid and upper-levels, so with some
insolation expected, highs today should climb to near 70 over much
of the region. We may not be warm enough, if the sun can pop out
for awhile anywhere.

The south winds will increase and become quite gusty, with 30-35
mph gusts possible. Guidance has been pretty consistent here, but
current VWPs from area radars show 60-65kts of southwest flow at
925mb. Certainly won`t be surprised if gusts are greater than
forecast, especially if/where the sun pops out and causes better
mixing.

Tonight should be a near repeat of this morning with persistent
south winds and plenty of cloud cover. Definitely playing the warm
side of guidance for lows.

As for the rain event, the 00Z models continue to trend slower
with the onset and northeastward spread of the more widespread
showers. The 00Z 4km WRF runs keep the entire area dry through the
day Tuesday, which is very similar to the 00Z NAM. Backed PoPs
down to slight chance/chance levels and confined them to southeast
Missouri on Tuesday afternoon.

A couple of swaths of showers will eventually pass north northeast
through southeast Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. But even
this activity will be moving along, so QPF amounts will be
stunted a bit. Model soundings still are not showing much
instability, so thunderstorms still appear to be limited. The
flood potential through Wednesday is definitely trending downward
even in southeast Missouri.

Will confine likely to categorical PoPs Tuesday night to southeast
Missouri, and then spread them into southern Illinois Wednesday.
Not sure if portions of west Kentucky or southwest Indiana will
get wet at all through the end of the day Wednesday.

With the drier trend Tuesday through Wednesday, also have trended
warmer with temperatures. There are likely to be lots of lower and
middle 70s for highs over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Models are in good agreement showing the cold front extending from
the southern Great Lakes region into southwest Missouri at 12z
Thursday.  ECMWF then pushes the front just south of our region by
12z Friday, while GFS and the Canadian hang the front across the PAH
forecast area.  Models have varied quite a bit over the last several
runs of just how far south the front will move and how quickly it
will come back north, but have agreed in the overall trend of moving
moving the axis of greatest QPF a little farther west.  Widespread
showers will spread east across the region Wednesday night and
continue through Thursday into Thursday night.  Models differences
lower confidence somewhat as we get into Friday and through the
weekend, but all show showers continuing, but the focus of highest
QPF differs.  Went with likely precipitation south to chance north
on Friday, then kept precipitation in the chance category Friday
night and through the weekend.

Most significant QPF in the long term will be Wednesday night into
Thursday, with 1 to 2 inch totals possible in that 24 hour period
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far west Kentucky,
with lesser amounts to the east.  The Ozark foothills may see
slightly higher amounts.  After Thursday, QPF amounts will drop off
quite a bit, though again with the uncertainty in the models, the
timing and amounts will need continued adjustments.  Also, although
the instability remains unimpressive, any thunderstorms that develop
could produce some heavier rainfall amounts.  The best chances of
thunderstorms will be mostly across the southern half of the PAH
forecast area.

Temperatures will remain incredibly warm through the extended, with
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals, and
overnight lows 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over southern Illinois
early this morning should not pose a threat to any of the TAF
sites. Mid-level ceilings and south winds will persist through
the period. Winds will pick up by mid-morning at all sites and
gusts 20-25kts will be common through the afternoon.

Maintained a mention of LLWS at KEVV and KOWB early this morning
due to 60-65kts of wind on area VWPs at 925 mb. It has already
begun to gust at KCGI and KPAH, so will not mention LLWS there.
Winds off the surface are not expected to be quite as strong
tonight, but they should still be sufficient to include LLWS at
all sites mainly for the overnight hours.

Guidance is hinting at lower clouds beneath the inversion arriving
at KCGI and possibly KPAH late tonight. Confidence is not great,
but if they do make up here, figure that they will still be at
VFR levels.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 107 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM EAST...MOST THE REGION
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. WE COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES IN
SPOTS...STILL SEEM LIKE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IS REASONABLE GIVEN
QUICKSAND MESONET IT SITTING AT 34 AND JACKSON ASOS IS SITTING AT
46 DEGREES THIS HOUR. UPDATED TEMP CURVE TO MATCH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES NEEDED AT BEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING BY. DID HAVE TO MAKE MORE WHOLESALE ADJUSTMENTS TO
DEWS...AS AIR WAS DRIER BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE BENEFITS BEFALLING THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL CLEARED ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN AND HIGH ONES DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY MIXED OUT AND DROPPED A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL BUILD A MODERATE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES MUCH STRONGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL THEN SERVE TO KEEP ANY ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE...INITIALLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS...AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS DIFFERENCE MAY APPROACH 15 DEGREES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TOUCH OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE A VERY NICE DAY AS MORNING LOWS...PARTICULARLY CHILLY IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS...GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE
60S DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BEING AS EXTREME.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DISTINCTION. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY ZEROED THEM OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW WITH RAIN
CHANCES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING FORWARD
PROGRESS AGAINST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA...THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE DELAYED A BIT
MORE...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE MOVEMENT AND
DEFINING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT BECOME A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHEARS IT OUT...AND THEN MOVES THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE THE FRONT BARELY
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. IN OTHER WORDS...SPRING WILL BE VISITING THE REGION
EARLY STARTING THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DID TWO LINE TAF ONLY TO HIGHLIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY BETTER MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ/JMW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 717 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH ERN ND/NW MN. WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM ASSOC SFC
LOW OVER MN HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT HAS ALSO
LIFTED NORTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI. ADDED MOISTURE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SHORTWAVE OVER ND/MN MOVES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT. ALSO
COULD BE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SSW FLOW INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
20Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR WRN U.P.
BUT CONTINUED MID-LVL DRYING AND LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER WEST INTO THE EVENING. LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS AREA WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG SO WILL ISSUE A SPS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA.
COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S NW WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS WL STAY CLOSER TO THE MID
40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE HALF OF FORECAST AREA WED
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SHRA SHORTLY AFT 12Z
OVER THE NW FCST...BUT OTHERWISE BUILDING RIDGE FM NORTH AND ASSOC
INCREASED DRYING AND ANTICYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST LATE IN DAY UNDER LOW-LVL DIFFLUENT NE FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SCNTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

...WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...

THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE E COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE THE N TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW
ACROSS MEXICO. THE PROGRESSIVE N WAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE E
09-21Z THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE SFC. MIXED
PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN IF ANYTHING DOES FALL. 850MB TEMPS ARE
HOVERING NEAR 0C AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS LOWER MI...A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THE 500MB TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE CUT OFF LOW TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO TX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SFC HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL SINK ACROSS LOWER MI BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST OF NE COAST SATURDAY.

LOW TRACKS ACROSS N ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR N...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W COAST FRIDAY WILL HELP EJECT THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER TX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LONG PROCESS THROUGH WITH
THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE S
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE OVERLY EXCITED GFS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE BACKED BY THE ECMWF AND IDEA
THAT THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER MI. WHILE A SFC

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE PRECIP RETURNING TO UPPER MI AS
EARLY AS 21Z SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THIS SOLUTION FOR WHAT IS NOW DAY 5. CHANCE POPS COULD SHOW UP AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY OVER THE SE. THE S LOW OVER S LAKE MI BY 06Z MONDAY
LOOKS TO EXIT E...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES SWING IT ACROSS LOWER MI
MONDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN THIS DAY 6-7 FCST...AND WILL
GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS
FCST MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR N...ACROSS N ONTARIO/S HUDSON BAY MONDAY-
TUESDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI.

END/KF
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

DENSE FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW WILL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY LIFTING ABOVE
LANDING MINS BY LATE EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LIMITED FOR IMPROVEMENT
UNTIL WINDS VEER WITH A FROPA LATE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WED ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR WED AFTERNOON.

AT KCMX...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LINGER
THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AS SW WINDS INCREASE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN LIFR CONDITIONS INTO WED BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY LATE
MORNING WITH NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

AT KIWD...UPSTREAM OBS OVER MN SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS VEER
TO THE WEST. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WED AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 401 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND HELP PUSH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT INCREASING DEW POINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE ALSO
EXPECT SOME -DZ TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-
SE FLOW. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ESPECIALLY NOTED ON 300K
SFC...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL EVEN KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING TO 8C OR GREATER OVER CENTRAL MN. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WEST HALF AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATING FROM LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER EAST HALF...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...

LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED S OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTN/EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW/KCMX
WILL LEAD TO VLIFR BY LATE EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
MORNING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS
SHOULDN`T FALL BLO IFR TONIGHT AND SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT LATE WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 128 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT IS NOW S OF JAMES BAY. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO FAR...LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS MODELS STRONGLY ADVERTISED 24HRS AGO. SOME
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...BUT VIS IS MOSTLY 3-5SM. A BIT BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRATUS IS SURGING S ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
AND HAS RECENTLY REACHED THE NRN SHORE OF THE LAKE E OF THUNDER BAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 3-4MB/3HR PRES RISES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. FRONT
SHOULD END UP JUST S OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. ITS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR S THE TRAILING STRATUS WILL MOVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEERING FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT...THE
LATEST RAP PROBABLY HAS THE EDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -DZ GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ THERE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER AS DEVELOPING E TO SE WINDS OCCUR LATER AND
WON`T HAVE AS MUCH OF A LAKE MODIFIED COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 40S E AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE WI BORDER. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE INTERIOR W HALF.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED S TODAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH BECOME QUITE STEEP ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8.5C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND EVEN
ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT SOME -DZ TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...

LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED S OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTN/EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW/KCMX
WILL LEAD TO VLIFR BY LATE EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
MORNING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS
SHOULDN`T FALL BLO IFR TONIGHT AND SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT IS NOW S OF JAMES BAY. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO FAR...LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS MODELS STRONGLY ADVERTISED 24HRS AGO. SOME
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...BUT VIS IS MOSTLY 3-5SM. A BIT BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRATUS IS SURGING S ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
AND HAS RECENTLY REACHED THE NRN SHORE OF THE LAKE E OF THUNDER BAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 3-4MB/3HR PRES RISES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. FRONT
SHOULD END UP JUST S OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. ITS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR S THE TRAILING STRATUS WILL MOVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEERING FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT...THE
LATEST RAP PROBABLY HAS THE EDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -DZ GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ THERE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER AS DEVELOPING E TO SE WINDS OCCUR LATER AND
WON`T HAVE AS MUCH OF A LAKE MODIFIED COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 40S E AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE WI BORDER. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE INTERIOR W HALF.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED S TODAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH BECOME QUITE STEEP ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8.5C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND EVEN
ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT SOME -DZ TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...

LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT KCMX IN
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. AT
KSAW...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
MID MORNING. COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE AFTN/EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW/KCMX WILL LEAD TO VLIFR BY
LATE EVENING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS
SHOULDN`T FALL BLO IFR TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 1155 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

ISSUED AN EARLIER QUICK UPDATE FOR SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MORNING.
GUIDANCE/MOS COMPLETELY OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY. 12Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWED EARLIER 6KFT LAYER WHICH HAS COMPLETELY VANISHED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AN INCREASED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS INTO THE STRAITS
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK VORTICITY
IN A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK NE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE THOUGHT HERE...IS FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS. ALSO...DRYING COULDN`T HAVE BEEN TOO
SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE SRN CWA. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT TOO BAD
STILL AT 6-6.5 C/KM AND THE ARRIVAL OF RENEWED LOW TO MID LEVEL
WAA AND CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS POPPING OFF. FORCING IS
VERY WEAK HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF JET SUPPORT...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE POOLING...SEEN VIA LATEST RUC PWATS...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
MANISTEE AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER...WITH 40S IN
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NRN LAKE HURON WITH
AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT/POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...STILL GETTING WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WX POTENTIAL...NONE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WERE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND EAST
OF HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONT CONNECTING THE TWO WAS
MOVING SE-WARD ACROSS SUPERIOR. A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAS AIDING SHRA (AND EVEN TSRA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT) DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF LOWER MI AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI...THEN STALL AND
WASH OUT...OVERWHELMED BY A WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR
CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.

TODAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. THE
AXIS OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH 500MB TEMPS RISING FROM -21C TO -17C. THAT WILL SHUT THE
DOOR ON CONVECTION AS WE MOVE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A
PROCESS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN NW SECTIONS. MAY NEED A MENTION OF EARLY-
MORNING SHRA IN S CENTRAL AND SE SECTIONS...BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF
NORTHERN MI WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE OTHER POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE IN EASTERN UPPER LATE. THOUGH THE
STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING...IT WILL STILL BE PRESENT...
JUST AS SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
RETURNS STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-750MB LAYER...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SHALLOWISH MOIST CONVECTION TO OCCUR. INCREASED THETA-E
ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
UPPER MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS...AND WILL REMAIN...SOUPY. A HIGH STRATOCU
DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTIONS ARE SE
SECTIONS (ABOUT TO BE IMPACTED BY REMNANT CONVECTION) AND EASTERN
UPPER. EASTERN UPPER LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD EMPHATICALLY CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. IN NORTHERN LOWER...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BE
GENERALLY PREVALENT...BUT WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.

BALMY MAX TEMPS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH A SURGE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVING AS THE RIDGING ALOFT
FLATTENS. ACTUALLY NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF PRECIP UPSTREAM PER
MODEL TRENDS...IT DEVELOPS OVER OUR HEADS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
PRIMARILY COME TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI IN THE EVENING...
LIFTING INTO FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT. WILL BE
BOOSTING POPS TO THE HIGH LIKELYS OR CATEGORICAL. LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP ALOFT...DON/T THINK WE RUN THE RISK OF THUNDER
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...THE MID-LEVELS DRY ABOVE
800MB BUT STAY QUITE MOIST BELOW. SO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE TRENDING SHARPLY HIGHER (SPIKING INTO THE 40S IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER) AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER ICE/SNOW/COLD LAKES/COLD GROUND WILL BE FOG-
PRONE. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

(3/8)TUESDAY...AS THE SFC LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO
ONTARIO, NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR, MOST OF THE FORCING WILL CONTINUE
WITH IT, AND A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH THE MAIN SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MORNING, WITH SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON, JUST
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS IN TEXAS AND BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE
FRONT/SFC TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SET UP, PUMPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO MICHIGAN, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM
FLOW WILL KEEP US WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE-WISE (NORMAL HIGHS
MID TO UPPER 30S) AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WISE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER, BUT THE CHANCE IS PRETTY
LOW AT THIS POINT, AS THE MODELS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE 500 MB LOW, WHICH AT
12Z(WED), IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO.

(3/9)WEDNESDAY...AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT OF MICHIGAN, IT BEGINS
TO PULL THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WITH IT, THE RAIN. IN THE MEANTIME,
THE NEXT SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AHEAD OF
THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS BEGINS TO PUSH RAIN
BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN N LOWER, AND CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO E UPPER AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS
LIKE IT LINES UP MORE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE MAY GET A LIGHT CATEGORICAL EVENT AS THE RAIN PUSHES NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE TREND FOR DAY 4-7 CONTINUES
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND NOW PRECIPITATION AS THE MODELS
HAVE FOCUSED ON THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND PUSHES COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
BRANCH, BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE JET AND PRODUCING MORE RAIN.
SO THE BASIC IDEA OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN ON THURSDAY, THEN THE
500 MB RIDGE BUILDS, PUSHING THE RAIN EAST, ONLY FOR THE 500 MB LOW
TO LIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH BRINGS THE RAIN BACK INTO
THE REGION AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND MAYBE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT...

DRIER AIR HAS SWEPT IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE
FROM LAST NIGHT. SKC CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
BUT VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A STRONGER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN TRY TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF SOME LIGHT RAIN USHERED IN HERE VIA
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WINDS THAT GET STRONG ENOUGH JUST OFF THE SFC TO
RESULT IN MORE LLWS FOR TVC/MBL.

SFC BASED DEW POINTS RISE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING (WE WILL BE WARM ADVECTING
ALL NIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS)...GOTTA BELIEVE THAT AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS AVERAGE...AND WILL KEEP VSBYS ATTM IN THE 1-2SM RANGE.

AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC MAY EXPEDITE THIS PROCESS AT APN AS
COOLER AIR WILL MORE EFFICIENTLY KEEP TEMPS DOWN WHILE THE DEW
POINTS RISE (BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG/IFR).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AS OUR AIRMASS GETS INCREASINGLY
WARM/STABLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...AND MARINE HEADLINES WILL
BE ABLE TO GO AWAY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP SOMEWHAT AGAIN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT...IN PARTICULAR ON LAKE
MI.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...JZ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 954 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

ISSUED AN EARLIER QUICK UPDATE FOR SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MORNING.
GUIDANCE/MOS COMPLETELY OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY. 12Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWED EARLIER 6KFT LAYER WHICH HAS COMPLETELY VANISHED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AN INCREASED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS INTO THE STRAITS
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK VORTICITY
IN A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK NE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE THOUGHT HERE...IS FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS. ALSO...DRYING COULDN`T HAVE BEEN TOO
SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE SRN CWA. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT TOO BAD
STILL AT 6-6.5 C/KM AND THE ARRIVAL OF RENEWED LOW TO MID LEVEL
WAA AND CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS POPPING OFF. FORCING IS
VERY WEAK HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF JET SUPPORT...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE POOLING...SEEN VIA LATEST RUC PWATS...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
MANISTEE AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER...WITH 40S IN
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NRN LAKE HURON WITH
AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT/POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...STILL GETTING WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WX POTENTIAL...NONE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WERE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND EAST
OF HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONT CONNECTING THE TWO WAS
MOVING SE-WARD ACROSS SUPERIOR. A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAS AIDING SHRA (AND EVEN TSRA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT) DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF LOWER MI AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI...THEN STALL AND
WASH OUT...OVERWHELMED BY A WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR
CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.

TODAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. THE
AXIS OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH 500MB TEMPS RISING FROM -21C TO -17C. THAT WILL SHUT THE
DOOR ON CONVECTION AS WE MOVE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A
PROCESS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN NW SECTIONS. MAY NEED A MENTION OF EARLY-
MORNING SHRA IN S CENTRAL AND SE SECTIONS...BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF
NORTHERN MI WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE OTHER POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE IN EASTERN UPPER LATE. THOUGH THE
STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING...IT WILL STILL BE PRESENT...
JUST AS SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
RETURNS STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-750MB LAYER...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SHALLOWISH MOIST CONVECTION TO OCCUR. INCREASED THETA-E
ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
UPPER MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS...AND WILL REMAIN...SOUPY. A HIGH STRATOCU
DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTIONS ARE SE
SECTIONS (ABOUT TO BE IMPACTED BY REMNANT CONVECTION) AND EASTERN
UPPER. EASTERN UPPER LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD EMPHATICALLY CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. IN NORTHERN LOWER...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BE
GENERALLY PREVALENT...BUT WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.

BALMY MAX TEMPS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH A SURGE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVING AS THE RIDGING ALOFT
FLATTENS. ACTUALLY NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF PRECIP UPSTREAM PER
MODEL TRENDS...IT DEVELOPS OVER OUR HEADS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
PRIMARILY COME TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI IN THE EVENING...
LIFTING INTO FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT. WILL BE
BOOSTING POPS TO THE HIGH LIKELYS OR CATEGORICAL. LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP ALOFT...DON/T THINK WE RUN THE RISK OF THUNDER
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...THE MID-LEVELS DRY ABOVE
800MB BUT STAY QUITE MOIST BELOW. SO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE TRENDING SHARPLY HIGHER (SPIKING INTO THE 40S IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER) AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER ICE/SNOW/COLD LAKES/COLD GROUND WILL BE FOG-
PRONE. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

(3/8)TUESDAY...AS THE SFC LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO
ONTARIO, NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR, MOST OF THE FORCING WILL CONTINUE
WITH IT, AND A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH THE MAIN SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MORNING, WITH SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON, JUST
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS IN TEXAS AND BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE
FRONT/SFC TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SET UP, PUMPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO MICHIGAN, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM
FLOW WILL KEEP US WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE-WISE (NORMAL HIGHS
MID TO UPPER 30S) AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WISE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER, BUT THE CHANCE IS PRETTY
LOW AT THIS POINT, AS THE MODELS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE 500 MB LOW, WHICH AT
12Z(WED), IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO.

(3/9)WEDNESDAY...AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT OF MICHIGAN, IT BEGINS
TO PULL THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WITH IT, THE RAIN. IN THE MEANTIME,
THE NEXT SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AHEAD OF
THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS BEGINS TO PUSH RAIN
BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN N LOWER, AND CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO E UPPER AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS
LIKE IT LINES UP MORE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE MAY GET A LIGHT CATEGORICAL EVENT AS THE RAIN PUSHES NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE TREND FOR DAY 4-7 CONTINUES
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND NOW PRECIPITATION AS THE MODELS
HAVE FOCUSED ON THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND PUSHES COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
BRANCH, BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE JET AND PRODUCING MORE RAIN.
SO THE BASIC IDEA OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN ON THURSDAY, THEN THE
500 MB RIDGE BUILDS, PUSHING THE RAIN EAST, ONLY FOR THE 500 MB LOW
TO LIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH BRINGS THE RAIN BACK INTO
THE REGION AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND MAYBE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR TODAY...TURNING MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE NORTHERN MI...WELL AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE VFR IN
NATURE. HOWEVER...AN INCOMING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN -RA
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWERED CIGS/VSYBS IN STRATUS AND
FOG. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST...TENDING TO BE S TO SE.
LINGERING LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING APN/TVC/MBL. LLWS RETURNS LATE
TONIGHT MBL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AS OUR AIRMASS GETS INCREASINGLY
WARM/STABLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...AND MARINE HEADLINES WILL
BE ABLE TO GO AWAY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP SOMEWHAT AGAIN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT...IN PARTICULAR ON LAKE
MI.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ345-346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 653 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT IS NOW S OF JAMES BAY. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO FAR...LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS MODELS STRONGLY ADVERTISED 24HRS AGO. SOME
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...BUT VIS IS MOSTLY 3-5SM. A BIT BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRATUS IS SURGING S ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
AND HAS RECENTLY REACHED THE NRN SHORE OF THE LAKE E OF THUNDER BAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 3-4MB/3HR PRES RISES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. FRONT
SHOULD END UP JUST S OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. ITS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR S THE TRAILING STRATUS WILL MOVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEERING FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT...THE
LATEST RAP PROBABLY HAS THE EDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -DZ GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ THERE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER AS DEVELOPING E TO SE WINDS OCCUR LATER AND
WON`T HAVE AS MUCH OF A LAKE MODIFIED COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 40S E AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE WI BORDER. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE INTERIOR W HALF.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED S TODAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH BECOME QUITE STEEP ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8.5C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND EVEN
ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT SOME -DZ TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

MOST AREAS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL MN TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE IN THE 12Z/08 AND 18Z/08 TIME PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
WAA INTO THE AREA IS MAXIMIZED AND ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID
LEVEL REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY OVERLAYING
MOISTURE...PRESSURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE 295K TO
300K ISOSURFACE. COULD EVEN SEE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SMALL AMOUNT...AROUND 200J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALOFT...ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT RISES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AFTER WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO GREATLY
REDUCE THE INTENSITY AND OR COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE U.P. BETWEEN 00Z/09 AND 06Z/09 MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
AND GENERALLY SHALLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTER AREAS OF THE U.P.
WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE
A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.  AT THIS POINT HAVE
KEPT A SCATTERED MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT KCMX IN
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. AT
KSAW...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
MID MORNING. COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE AFTN/EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW/KCMX WILL LEAD TO VLIFR BY
LATE EVENING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS
SHOULDN`T FALL BLO IFR TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT IS NOW S OF JAMES BAY. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO FAR...LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS MODELS STRONGLY ADVERTISED 24HRS AGO. SOME
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...BUT VIS IS MOSTLY 3-5SM. A BIT BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRATUS IS SURGING S ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
AND HAS RECENTLY REACHED THE NRN SHORE OF THE LAKE E OF THUNDER BAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 3-4MB/3HR PRES RISES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. FRONT
SHOULD END UP JUST S OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. ITS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR S THE TRAILING STRATUS WILL MOVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEERING FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT...THE
LATEST RAP PROBABLY HAS THE EDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -DZ GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ THERE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER AS DEVELOPING E TO SE WINDS OCCUR LATER AND
WON`T HAVE AS MUCH OF A LAKE MODIFIED COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 40S E AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE WI BORDER. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE INTERIOR W HALF.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED S TODAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH BECOME QUITE STEEP ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8.5C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND EVEN
ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT SOME -DZ TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

MOST AREAS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL MN TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE IN THE 12Z/08 AND 18Z/08 TIME PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
WAA INTO THE AREA IS MAXIMIZED AND ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID
LEVEL REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY OVERLAYING
MOISTURE...PRESSURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE 295K TO
300K ISOSURFACE. COULD EVEN SEE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SMALL AMOUNT...AROUND 200J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALOFT...ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT RISES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AFTER WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO GREATLY
REDUCE THE INTENSITY AND OR COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE U.P. BETWEEN 00Z/09 AND 06Z/09 MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
AND GENERALLY SHALLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTER AREAS OF THE U.P.
WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE
A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.  AT THIS POINT HAVE
KEPT A SCATTERED MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

EXPECT THAT THE STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME
FOG. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTENING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR CIGS/FOG BY
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE IS LOW. EVENTUALLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DROP TO IFR TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 540 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THIS MORNING...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT WEST WORKING INTO COLORADO THIS
MORNING. UPPER FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SEND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD
MN/WI...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S PROGGED TO GET UP TO ABOUT I-94
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
BENEATH THE WARM AND DRY EML SAMPLED ON LAST NIGHTS MPX SOUNDING
THAT WILL BE CHANGING VERY LITTLE. THIS WARM/DRY LAYER WILL PROVE
PROBLEMATIC FOR US IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO COLORADO WILL ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL SODAK BY
12Z TUESDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR MORRIS MN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH WE WILL STILL SEE VALUES OF MUCAPE INCREASE
TO AROUND 1500 J/KG...WE DO NOT REALLY LOOK TO HAVE ANY FORCING
AROUND TO ALLOW US TO TAP INTO IT...WHICH IS WHY EVEN AT THIS
POINT...MODELS ARE STILL QUITE VARIABLE WITH PRECIP
PRODUCTION...THOUGH MOSTLY DRY DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ONE CAM
THAT EVENTUALLY PRODUCES PRECIP IS THE NCAR ENSEMBLE. SEVERAL OF ITS
MEMBERS DEVELOP SHOWERS AROUND DES MOINES THIS EVENING AND WORK THEM
TOWARD EAU CLAIRE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE LLJ. THE ONLY
DETERMINISTIC MODEL THAT PRODUCES MUCH IS THE ECMWF...WHICH IS STILL
KICKING OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NW EDGE OF THE
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONGUE THIS EVENING IN WESTERN MN AND
CARRYING IT TOWARD NW WI THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS ECMWF IS WHAT BEST
MATCHES WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH IN TERMS OF QPF...SO CONTINUED
TO FOLLOW THAT ROUTE. IF WE ARE TO SEE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHERE
THE ECMWF HAS IT ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE LLJ MAKES THE MOST PHYSICAL
SENSE WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS AS A WHOLE...WHICH ALL SHOW A
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ALL WE LOOK TO BE ABLE TO DO IS SQUEEZE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE MOIST SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH IT
DOES NOT LOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH. THOUGH NOT NIL...THE SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS REALLY LOW...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WE DO
SEE WILL BE ELEVATED /NO WIND THREAT/ AND ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY WE WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOUDY BY THE
AFTERNOON...NOTHING HAS CHANGED WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY WERE BAD...SO SIMPLY MIXED IN A
LITTLE BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF HIGHS TO ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS.
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREDIBLY MILD WITH DEWPS IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE HIGH...BUT
THESE WILL NOT STAND FOR OUR DAILY LOWS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WILL GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF CALENDAR DAY
LOWS ON TUESDAY THAT OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT /END OF THE CALENDAR DAY/.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OVERALL
THREAT FOR THUNDER TUESDAY.

WARM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER AND MID 50S
SHOULD START OUT THE DAY TUESDAY. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER FAR
WESTERN MN BY1 2Z TUE. SOME THREAT OF LINGERING THUNDERSHOWER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA WITH ANY
LEFTOVER CONVECTION GENERATED BY LLJ ACTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
OVER THE MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND DROP IT OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE ONLY MODEL INCLUDING
HIRES THAT WAS SHOWING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
THE EAST...EVEN WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WITH THE
VERY WARM TUESDAY MORNING LOWS...SOME CHANCE OF RECORD WARM LOWS
FOR THE 8TH. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...ONLY KEAU
MAY SEE THIS EVENT OCCURRING.

RECORD WARM LOWS FOR THE 8TH OF MARCH ARE:
MSP - 47 1878
STC - 38 1898
EAU - 41 2000

UNEVENTFUL BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW DOES REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE ONLY QUESTION REMAINS HOW MODELS HANDLE THE CUTOFF
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO LIFT THIS
SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW OVERALL WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

EAST WINDS ARE STARTING TO TAKE HOLD IN CENTRAL MN...WHICH WILL
START TO DO SOME WORK ON THE FOG...THOUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
GET IT OUT OF AXN...AND TAF MAY BE TO OPTIMISTIC THERE.
OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING TIMING OF THE HRRR FOR BRINGING
MVFR STRATUS CURRENTLY DOWN BY OMAHA INTO MPX TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY GET HERE...THEY LOOK TO STAY AND LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 50S SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME LOW CIGS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
CONSIDERABLY OUT IN WRN MN AS A SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
DAKOTAS...THOUGH NOT READY TO GO AS BAD AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HAS FOR THEN. ALSO REMOVED ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM THE TAFS.
STRONG INVERSION LOOKS TO CREATE ISSUES FOR PRECIP GENERATION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF
IF...WHERE AND WHEN WE WILL SEE PRECIP...SO FELT BEST TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR NOW.

KMSP...HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH BRINGING STRATUS IN
FROM SW BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...SO FOLLOWED THAT TIMING FOR BRINGING
MVFR CIGS IN...THOUGH THEY MAY COME IN AT MORE 040 THAN 020. HARD
TO PIN DOWN WHEN MSP WILL SEE PRECIP...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS COME IN AS EARLY AS WITH THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THAT CHANCE PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW
THOUGH...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT ANY POINT AFTER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD TO INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS BCMG VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS SW BCMG NW 10 KTS.
WED...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 1159 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

A weak shortwave trof combined with a strong low level jet is
producing elevated convection over the area this morning.  There
was obviously enough instability to produce thunderstorms, but
it looks like that instability has been greatly diminished based on
the falling number of lightning flashes over the past hour.  The RAP
and HRRR redevelop another wave of convection back over
central Missouri where there are currently some isolated showers.
Both models move the wave east-northeast through mid morning.  The
HRRR even develops a some training showers along the I-70 corridor
for a few hours after sunrise.  Neither of the models show
particularly strong storms, and this makes sense given the
limited amount of instability (~500 J/Kg or less).

Weak shortwave ridging builds overhead by 18Z which should shut off
the precipitation.  Forecast soundings show some fairly high RH from
500mb and up, so think it will stay fairly cloudy today.  That being
said, we`ll start the day with temperatures ranging from around 50
to the mid and upper 50s with southerly flow and continuing warm
advection.  Think highs in the low to mid 70s are easily attainable
with even moderate insolation through mid and high clouds.

Carney


GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

Another round of showers/storms is expected Monday night, mainly
across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to a weak
southwest flow shortwave and a strong southwesterly low level jet
over northwest MO which will bring increasing low level warm air
advection and moisture to the area. Our next shot of convection
should move into central MO Tuesday afternoon and through
northeast MO and west central IL, just north of STL Tuesday
evening with the potential for some heavy rainfall as upper level
divergence increases ahead of the approaching, but slow moving
upper level trough with deep south-southwesterly low-mid level
flow leading to a deep moisture profile. Tbe heaviest rain
potential will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as a northern
stream upper level trough moves eastward through the northern
Plains sending a cold front southeastward into our area. Still
some model discrepency as to where the heaviest rain will occur,
although they have been trending northward with the heaviest rain
axis, now extending from south central MO northeast into west
central IL with the heaviest QPF just west and north of STL
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The best potential for rain
should gradually shift south-southeastward on Thursday and Thursday
night as the front continues to shift southeastward. The rain
threat should shift back northward through much of the forecast
area Friday night and Saturday as the upper level low along with
an associated surface low finally move northeastward through our
area. The GFS model is a little more progressive with this
feature, shifting the rain out of our area by late Saturday night,
while the ECMWF does not push the rain completely northeast of
our forecast area until late Sunday night. For now will keep
chance pops going for the weekend, although the rainfall intensity
should be less. Will continue the heavy rain, hydrologic outlook
for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Later shifts may need
to issue a flood watch when the location, rainfall amounts and
timing becomes more certain.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

VFR flight conditions will prevail this afternoon along with gusty
southerly winds. VFR will continue into this evening and then
stratus will begin spreading into the region overnight into early
Tuesday morning producing MVFR flight conditions. Precipitation
potential is greatest along the corridor from KCOU-KUIN overnight
into early Tuesday morning as activity moves east from western MO.
Coverage and amount of thunder are the biggest uncertainties. Any
precipitation elsewhere looks rather spotty. Overnight there will
be a strong southwesterly LLJ overhead we will need to monitor
for potential LLWS, however present indications are that
conditions will be marginal at best and thus it hasn`t been
mentioned.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail this afternoon along with gusty
southerly winds, with VFR continuing tonight. Stratus will begin
spreading into the region overnight and into KSTL early Tuesday
morning producing MVFR flight conditions. Any precipitation
looks rather spotty and probability too low to mention. Overnight
there will be a strong southwesterly LLJ overhead we will need to
monitor for potential LLWS, however present indications are that
conditions will be marginal at best and thus it hasn`t been
included in the TAF.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 616 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

A weak shortwave trof combined with a strong low level jet is
producing elevated convection over the area this morning.  There
was obviously enough instability to produce thunderstorms, but
it looks like that instability has been greatly diminished based on
the falling number of lightning flashes over the past hour.  The RAP
and HRRR redevelop another wave of convection back over
central Missouri where there are currently some isolated showers.
Both models move the wave east-northeast through mid morning.  The
HRRR even develops a some training showers along the I-70 corridor
for a few hours after sunrise.  Neither of the models show
particularly strong storms, and this makes sense given the
limited amount of instability (~500 J/Kg or less).

Weak shortwave ridging builds overhead by 18Z which should shut off
the precipitation.  Forecast soundings show some fairly high RH from
500mb and up, so think it will stay fairly cloudy today.  That being
said, we`ll start the day with temperatures ranging from around 50
to the mid and upper 50s with southerly flow and continuing warm
advection.  Think highs in the low to mid 70s are easily attainable
with even moderate insolation through mid and high clouds.

Carney


GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

Another round of showers/storms is expected Monday night, mainly
across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to a weak
southwest flow shortwave and a strong southwesterly low level jet
over northwest MO which will bring increasing low level warm air
advection and moisture to the area. Our next shot of convection
should move into central MO Tuesday afternoon and through
northeast MO and west central IL, just north of STL Tuesday
evening with the potential for some heavy rainfall as upper level
divergence increases ahead of the approaching, but slow moving
upper level trough with deep south-southwesterly low-mid level
flow leading to a deep moisture profile. Tbe heaviest rain
potential will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as a northern
stream upper level trough moves eastward through the northern
Plains sending a cold front southeastward into our area. Still
some model discrepency as to where the heaviest rain will occur,
although they have been trending northward with the heaviest rain
axis, now extending from south central MO northeast into west
central IL with the heaviest QPF just west and north of STL
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The best potential for rain
should gradually shift south-southeastward on Thursday and Thursday
night as the front continues to shift southeastward. The rain
threat should shift back northward through much of the forecast
area Friday night and Saturday as the upper level low along with
an associated surface low finally move northeastward through our
area. The GFS model is a little more progressive with this
feature, shifting the rain out of our area by late Saturday night,
while the ECMWF does not push the rain completely northeast of
our forecast area until late Sunday night. For now will keep
chance pops going for the weekend, although the rainfall intensity
should be less. Will continue the heavy rain, hydrologic outlook
for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Later shifts may need
to issue a flood watch when the location, rainfall amounts and
timing becomes more certain.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

The low level jet is producing low level wind shear across the
area this morning...as well as forcing widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Visibility in the strongest storm cells is
likely at or below 3SM due to locally heavier rain, but elsewhere
and otherwise VFR flight conditions are previailing. The low level
jet will diminish after 15Z diminishing the threat for LLWS as
well as allowing the precipitation to diminish. VFR conditions
with gusty wind will prevail this afternoon. Gusts will diminish
this evening...and there`s some chance of LLWS again tonight
though the low level jet does not look to be quite as strong or as
near the surface. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR ceilings after 06Z Tuesday morning...especially across parts
of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois.

Specifics for KSTL:
A broken line of showers with a few thunderstorms is moving east
toward the terminal. While VFR conditions are expected to
prevail...a brief period of MVFR vsby looks likely as the showers
paass. Low level wind shear should diminish after 15Z along with
the threat for rain. VFR flight conditions and gusty south-
southwest flow will prevail this afternoon into the evening. There
is another chance of thunderstorms late tonight with potential for
MVFR ceilings/vsbys...but for the moment it looks like
precipiation will mostly stay north and northwest of the terminal.


Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 416 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

A weak shortwave trof combined with a strong low level jet is
producing elevated convection over the area this morning.  There
was obviously enough instability to produce thunderstorms, but
it looks like that instability has been greatly diminished based on
the falling number of lightning flashes over the past hour.  The RAP
and HRRR redevelop another wave of convection back over
central Missouri where there are currently some isolated showers.
Both models move the wave east-northeast through mid morning.  The
HRRR even develops a some training showers along the I-70 corridor
for a few hours after sunrise.  Neither of the models show
particularly strong storms, and this makes sense given the
limited amount of instability (~500 J/Kg or less).

Weak shortwave ridging builds overhead by 18Z which should shut off
the precipitation.  Forecast soundings show some fairly high RH from
500mb and up, so think it will stay fairly cloudy today.  That being
said, we`ll start the day with temperatures ranging from around 50
to the mid and upper 50s with southerly flow and continuing warm
advection.  Think highs in the low to mid 70s are easily attainable
with even moderate insolation through mid and high clouds.

Carney


GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

Another round of showers/storms is expected Monday night, mainly
across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to a weak
southwest flow shortwave and a strong southwesterly low level jet
over northwest MO which will bring increasing low level warm air
advection and moisture to the area. Our next shot of convection
should move into central MO Tuesday afternoon and through
northeast MO and west central IL, just north of STL Tuesday
evening with the potential for some heavy rainfall as upper level
divergence increases ahead of the approaching, but slow moving
upper level trough with deep south-southwesterly low-mid level
flow leading to a deep moisture profile. Tbe heaviest rain
potential will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as a northern
stream upper level trough moves eastward through the northern
Plains sending a cold front southeastward into our area. Still
some model discrepency as to where the heaviest rain will occur,
although they have been trending northward with the heaviest rain
axis, now extending from south central MO northeast into west
central IL with the heaviest QPF just west and north of STL
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The best potential for rain
should gradually shift south-southeastward on Thursday and Thursday
night as the front continues to shift southeastward. The rain
threat should shift back northward through much of the forecast
area Friday night and Saturday as the upper level low along with
an associated surface low finally move northeastward through our
area. The GFS model is a little more progressive with this
feature, shifting the rain out of our area by late Saturday night,
while the ECMWF does not push the rain completely northeast of
our forecast area until late Sunday night. For now will keep
chance pops going for the weekend, although the rainfall intensity
should be less. Will continue the heavy rain, hydrologic outlook
for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Later shifts may need
to issue a flood watch when the location, rainfall amounts and
timing becomes more certain.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2016

VFR conditions and southerly surface winds are expected to
prevail, outside of TSRA, at the TAF sites thru the valid period.
Two episodes of TSRA are expected, with the first ongoing over UIN
and STL metro sites, which should exit both by around 08z, and
then another that will enter thru central MO and COU by around
10z, exiting UIN and the STL metro sites by 15z. LLWS is ongoing,
thanks to a 45-50kt low level jet, and will continue until around
14-15z, with gusty winds for the remainder of the daylight hours
Monday. Another LLWS event possible Monday night, but it is
marginal and will leave out with this issuance.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 617 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG WAVE TO THE EAST
OVER EAST TEXAS AS SEEN IN WV AND RADAR RETURNS. WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES DUE TO STUBBORN STRATUS TODAY AND WAA AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOMORROW.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SLOW TO ERODE STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED MAX TEMPS
TODAY. SREF MORE OPTIMISTIC IN BREAKING UP THE STRATUS BY 00Z
WHILE THE NAM AND RAP CLEAR IT OUT TONIGHT. WITH 850HPA FLOW
TURNING WESTERLY IN THE PANHANDLE...THINKING CLEARING WILL OCCUR
SOONER THERE AND SLOWLY WORK EAST. DEPENDING HOW LONG THE STRATUS
HANGS ON OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB...MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO COOL.
FARTHER SOUTH...DENSE CIRRUS FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPS FROM FRONTIER TO
WHEELER COUNTIES IN CASE LOWS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...TRENDED LOWS
DOWN A DEGREE OR SO... BUT THEY ARE STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC/850HPA TROUGH MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND MAIN 500HPA WAVE ARRIVING LATER. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT 850HPA WILL AID IN WAA...INCREASING TEMPS FROM ABOUT 5C
AT 12Z TO NEAR 10C AT 00Z. TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD MAV AND ECM
GUIDANCE...WHICH GENERALLY INCREASED PREVIOUS FCST 1-2 DEGREES.
NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 750HPA AREA WIDE.
SOUNDINGS ALSO PICK UP A QUASI INVERTED V SIGNAL AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FGEN FORCING INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. APPRECIABLE
LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO EXISTS WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES. CONTINUED SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WEST OF HWY 83
AFTER 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG LIFT AND MARGINAL CAPE.
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HIGH BASED. ALSO...0-6KM SHEAR IS VERY
HIGH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP FALLING
APART QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...PHASING
WITH UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME INSTABILITY
AND CAPE WITH 7K FT CEILINGS AND LIFT FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEAK LLJ INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
PUSHES EAST AND THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 11C TO 12C. 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW INITIATES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW
RHS AND WINDS MAY BE CAUSE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TROUGH
BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AS UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES
UNDER THE RIDGE. PACIFIC AIR AND FAIRLY STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KVTN IS ON THE WESTERLY EDGE OF
THE LOW STRATUS AND WILL SEE SOME IMPACT FOR A COUPLE HOURS. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE OF
CONCERN FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...POWER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 326 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

AT H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEBRASKA TONIGHT. RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DUE TO
RH BELOW 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

THIS EVENING... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. AS OF 21Z...
LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSNY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SLOWLY BRING
SATURATION BELOW 850HPA THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. AT 00Z... HRRR AND RAP MODELS PLACE SFC LOW OVER KTIF
WITH EXPANDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST AND CONTINUED DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM AND RAP FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH CONVECTIVE INDICES... MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG... LIFTED INDEX AS
LOW AS -3C... AND UP TO 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR FROM KSNY TO KAIA TO
KVTN. CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING... BUT THREAT
OF SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.

TONIGHT... SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER BOYD CO BY 06Z ACCORDING TO NAM
AND HRR. 850HPA CAA IS STRONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING NEARLY 8C OVER
NORTHWEST NEB FROM 00-06Z. HOWEVER... 850HPA TEMPS REMAIN AOA 0C
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AT KAIA
AND MERRIMAN WHILE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING IN LOWEST
100HPA. RAP ALSO WEAKENS LIFT AS TEMPS COOL TO THE POINT WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH CONFIDENCE
RELATIVELY LOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE... OR
AT LEAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR... LEFT MAIN PTYPE AS
RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61. HOWEVER... CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEAR
KAIA AND PINE RIDGE SO LEFT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW... IN CASE
STRONG LOW LIFT CONTINUES AFTER 06Z ALLOWING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
DYNAMIC COOLING.

TUESDAY... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG SD
BORDER WITH SLOWLY DRYING AIR IN LOWEST 50HPA. LEFT SCHC RAIN NORTH
OF U.S. HWY 20 THROUGH 18Z. FARTHER SOUTH... SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER
AND EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING. 850HPA TEMPS ARE MODEST AT
0-5C WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX
TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ALIGNED WELL WITH MONDAY 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE... RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND HAVE SOME TIMING AND
TEMPERATURE ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEANS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON
STEADY RISE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...5C TO 15C. ECMWF MORE
PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE THURSDAY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLES
COMING IN WITH 1 TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LOW 60S ON THURSDAY THROUGH UPPER 60S SUNDAY SEEM REASONABLE AS
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PACIFIC AIR. STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
SLOWED BY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BUT LOOKING
AT TIME HEIGHTS DRY LOWER LEVELS HIGH BASED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH STRONG CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POSSIBILITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES. GUSTS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN. MVFR CIGS ARE
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MAR 7 2016

CRITICAL RH VALUES AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. RED FLAG WARNING ON TRACK FOR FIRE ZONES 210 AND 219.
DECENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MAX RH VALUES AOA 80 PERCENT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE
20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

 828 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH ALONG COASTAL CALIFORNIA
TODAY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&

.UPDATE...STORM SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH ALONG COASTAL CA TODAY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NV
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 232 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AS LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE SIERRAS MOVES FARTHER
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE SILVER
STATE. TODAY WILL OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEK WITH
AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. THEN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROADENING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS STRADDLING THE SIERRAS NEAR
SACRAMENTO AND RENO THIS MORNING. THE MEAN 516DM UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS SPINNING SOUTHWEST OF KETCHIKAN ALASKA EXTENDING A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE LOBES INTO THE CONUS...ONE MOVING INTO OREGON AND
ONE...SORT OF FRACTURED...MOVING INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED. UPPER LEVEL ROTATION CAN BE SEEN ON IR NEAR
THE BASE OF THE LATTER SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM EUREKA CALIFORNIA. RADAR
IS INDICATING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER WESTERN
NEVADA...NOTHING NOTED AT RENO FALLON OR LOVELOCK AS OF 2 AM. MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER UP NORTH.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTH
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SIERRAS AND PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS COOLER AIR OOZES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE PRIMARY RECIPIENT OF ANY VALLEY SNOWFALL WILL BE AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE SOURCE AND GENERALLY
WEST OF ELKO...AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY WHICH WILL QUICKLY MELT
OFF.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CLOSES OFF
CIRCULATION...THEN MOVES ACROSS MEXICO TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS... SOME RIDGING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPAND OVER THE STATE.
THIS RIDGE IS NOT NECESSARILY SEEN AS LOW AMPLITUDE HOWEVER THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SO FAR OUT IN THE PACIFIC THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME WAVES OF MOISTURE ECLIPSING THE RIDGE
PEAK...RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. CENTRAL NEVADA SHOULD ESSENTIALLY REMAIN DRY DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO
HIGH WITH THE DETAILS GIVEN MODEL SPREAD...BUT ALL THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW A TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NRN/CENTRAL NEVADA EITHER ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.  THE FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE INCOMING
TROUGH SPLITS UPON ITS ARRIVAL. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE HITS THE
NRN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS OVER THE SIERRA. IN THIS REGARD...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS. AIR MASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO MOST SPOTS
WOULD GET RAIN BELOW 7-8K FEET.

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE WEST COAST INTO SUNDAY
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY POINTED TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  BUT THE
MODELS KEEP THE GREAT BASIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ENERGY LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO.  WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHEN PCPN WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TAKES A BROADBRUSH APPROACH AND DOES NOT OFFER TOO MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF PASSING SHORT WAVES.

AVIATION...SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NW NEVADA WILL BRINGS AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL LIKELY REACH KWMC BETWEEN 14Z-18Z.  THIS AREA OF
PCPN BECOMES DISORGANIZED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE CENTRAL BUT NOT SO MUCH THE EAST. KTPH STANDS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.  FOR KEKO AND
KELY...SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER A SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/88




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
649 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Upper low has slowed its east-southeast progress and remains just
off the central CA coast this morning. Just looking at the trends
from satellite and radar data leads one to believe the best
chance for any appreciable snow will be farther south into Mono
County through the day. But...the latest HRRR depictions show
precipitation developing across far western Nevada and northeast
California later this morning in response to the expected
deformation zone on the north and northeast side of the upper low.
If/when this happens we could see a period of accumulating snow
across the far northern part of the forecast area where
temperatures are closer to the freezing mark this morning and
relative humidity is higher. Farther south along the Sierra Front
the temperatures this morning area a little higher and there is a
little more dry air near the surface. This would produce wet
bulbing...but may not be sufficiently cold enough to allow any
accumulation as the morning wears on. So...even though we may see
snow across the Reno/Carson City area later this morning...it does
not appear now there will be sufficient accumulating snow to
maintain the winter weather advisory.

Snow amounts will be a little less in the the Tahoe basin as
well...but we will maintain the warning there for now given snow
that has already fallen and continuing travel difficulties.
Farther north there is still light snow falling in parts of
northeast california so we will let the advisory continue there as
well. In Mono County we expect redevelopment as this area will be
closer to the upper low today. The amounts may not be what we
originally forecast...but there should be some snow and travel
difficulties later this morning. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

Storm pushing through the Sierra today may impact the morning
commute with snow covered roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
Tuesday will bring a brief break in the weather before the pattern
turns wet again midweek.

SHORT TERM...

Heavy snowfall continues in the Sierra early this morning as this
second winter storm pushes into the West Coast. Sierra passes have
been significantly impacted overnight with extensive travel delays,
chain controls, and even a temporary closure of Interstate 80 to
name a few incidents. For the latest on road conditions please
check with CalTrans, NDOT, or CHP.

Precipitation has not begun to spillover into western Nevada early
this morning, but high resolution simulations are indicating that
could occur sometime between 3AM and 6AM this morning. Forecast
model soundings are still indicating a very unstable atmosphere
with steep lapse rates that would be conducive to showers
developing. NAM/GFS are indicating that the area of deformation
may develop later, after 10AM, which would not be conducive to
snowfall accumulating on the roadways and therefore limiting
snowfall totals for Reno, Carson City, and Minden. Although totals
may be lower for the morning commute, drivers should be alert and
slow down as even wet roads will create slick driving conditions.

As the upper level trough drops south and east later this afternoon,
the flow turns north/northeast into the southern Sierra resulting in
moist upslope flow into Mono/Alpine counties. Wrap around bands
could result in a late afternoon burst of snow showers, especially
from Highway 50 south. With snowfall likely persisting through the
afternoon and into the evening, we decided to go ahead and extend
the Winter Storm Warning through 4PM. There is potential for
additional accumulations around 1 to 2 feet of snow above 7000 feet
through late this evening in Mono County. Please see the Winter
Storm Warning for details.

We are still anticipating a break in the weather on Tuesday as a
weak ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Tuesday night into
Wednesday, warm air advection precipitation starts to push into
far northern CA/NV with light precipitation possible mainly north
of Interstate 80. Models have continued to trend farther south
with this feature. With forecast model soundings showing an
isothermal layer for this time frame with the light precipitation,
we are expecting it to fall as snow with some light accumulations
possible especially north of Gerlach and Susanville. The light
snow accumulations could pose a problem for the Wednesday morning
commute as it would increase the chances for slick road
conditions. Weishahn

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

A few changes were made to pops in the extended forecast early on
with only minimal changes made after Friday. The model solutions
offer overall mild agreement in the long wave pattern as a broad
trough remains offshore through the extended period...but there is
little agreement in the details at this point regarding timing of
short waves rotating through the flow that would trigger periods of
precipitation. The extended looks to be a time of unsettled
weather...but whether that takes the form of rain or snow outside of
the higher elevations is quite literally up in the air at this point.

By Thursday the GFS is a little faster and farther south than the
ECMWF in bringing pcpn back to the region. This means lower snow
levels for the GFS as well. These differences extend into Friday as
the GFS moves the short wave through the region with pops
spreading across the CWA while the ECMWF holds the short wave back
to the west and almost gives it a negative tilt. This would slow
the entrance of pcpn into western Nevada until later Friday and
cause higher temperatures over the Basin and Range. The GEFS
ensembles show some minor support for this solution...but most
members are closer to the deterministic GFS. So the primary
changes were to bump pops up a bit over the far western CWA
Thursday and trim them back in the eastern CWA. Pops were lowered
in the far southeast CWA for Friday.

The ECMWF becomes almost zonal and much wetter than the GFS by late
Saturday. The GFS redevelops the long wave trough off the coast.
Again...these disparate solutions would have significant impacts to
pops...snow levels and temperatures. This extends into Sunday as the
GFS starts to eject another short wave and becomes much colder than
the ECMWF.

Overall there is a high likelihood that the extended period will
feature wet weather...but differences in the deterministic and
ensemble model solutions lead to a low confidence forecast regarding
any details. Will go with a very general forecast of the period this
cycle. 20

AVIATION...

Deep moisture plume and lift associated with the next short wave
trough and incoming upper level low will combine to produce snow
through the Sierra into the early afternoon while areas east and
north of the Sierra see a mix of rain and snow before turning to all
snow later today. Currently there is less precipitation making its
way over the Sierra as the mid level winds have become more
southerly. This will allow VFR conditions to hold on longer east of
the Sierra and even in some Sierra valleys through roughly daybreak.
As the upper low gets closer today...conditions should deteriorate
with snow accumulating on the Sierra runways up to as much as 6
inches through late morning and IFR conditions prevailing. East of
the Sierra the likelihood of accumulating snow is becoming far more
uncertain...but we could see a couple of inches at KCXP and KMEV
through 7/18 UTC. The lack of significant spillover is making
accumulations at KRNO far less likely...but they cannot be ruled out.

Occasional gusty winds will continue this morning up to 35kts from
the south. By late afternoon surface winds should shift to the
northwest for most locations. Lingering snow showers will bring
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions into the evening hours before the
showers taper off by daybreak Tuesday.

Another round of unsettled weather will return to the region
starting Wednesday and last through the week. 20


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ005.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ070-071.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 935 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MAINTAINS A FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED BAND OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTING TO THE
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH
IS A SOLD 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS RUNNING AROUND +9C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES...AS WELL AS NEAR THE PA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS...PARTICULARLY AT BUFFALO WHERE THE RECORD IS A
COMPARATIVELY SOFT 65 DEGREES...HOWEVER THEY MAY BE HELD JUST SHY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST BY ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ALSO...A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE GUSTING
TO 40 MP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO PARTIAL MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD ARE NECESSARY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKING TO BE
A RATHER WET ONE. READ ON FOR THE DETAILS...

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD...BUT WE CAN BE
THANKFUL THAT THIS WILL NOT INCLUDE THE TYPICAL MARCH EXTREME
WEATHER SCENARIOS THAT RANGE FROM HEAVY SNOW/MIXED WINTRY SLOP TO
EARLY SEASON CONVECTION. A LARGE REASON FOR THIS WILL BE A LOW
AMPLITUDE NORTHERN BRANCH TO A SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL FLOOD THE
COUNTRY WITH PACIFIC BASED AIR. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION...THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS STACKED LOW OVER OLD
MEXICO AND TEXAS.

THIS ONCE IN A GENERATION (30 YR RETURN INTERVIEW) UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STACKED LOW OVER TEXAS...WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR SPRINGLIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT
WILL ALSO DIRECT A PLUME OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.5" (+4 STD) WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MID WEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE NOTEWORTHY STACKED LOW TO PRODUCE SOME SOAKING
RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO
TO THE UPPER MID WEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTH FROM THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE
A 50KT H85 JET WILL TRANSPORT A WEALTH OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR OUR
REGION AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS ONLY
SETTLING TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 50 FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LOWS WILL
BE CLOSER TO 40.

ON THURSDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE DIRECTLY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PACKAGES HAVE BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING THOUGH IN REGARDS TO WHETHER SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES WILL
PROGRESS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY OR IF ONE ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH. IN EITHER CASE...THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL ENHANCE THE
DEEP LIFT ALREADY BEING PROVIDED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE RR QUAD OF
A SCREAMING 170KT H25 OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...AND STRONG H925-70
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 1.5". THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SWATH OF HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF STEADY RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
IT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MOST OF WRN NY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST SFC WAVE...THE FRONT WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE AND NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE PROCESS...ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. 36 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS ENDED EVENT WILL RANGE
FROM ROUGHLY A HALF INCH NEAR THE PA BORDER TO MORE THAN 1.25" FOR
SITES NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS AMOUNT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THE PCPN.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A 24 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE REGION
CAN DRY OUT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE FAIR WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING US A NOTABLE...BUT VERY TEMPORARY COOL DOWN
AS TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 45 AND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A PROGRESSIVE...PACIFIC BASED FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. THE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UNUSUALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN UP AND EVENTUALLY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SYSTEM AND SEVERAL PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE COMMON AS WE MAKE OUR WAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THE
PACIFIC FLOW WITH A TENDENCY TOWARDS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
TO 40-45 KTS AT 2K FT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LLWS SINCE
THESE WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.

THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX DOWN BY
LATE MORNING...LEADING TO SW GUSTS TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AS
WARMER AIR EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A REGION OF LOW PRESSURE
BEARS DOWN UPON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RELATIVELY
COOL LAKE WATERS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP WINDS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKLEY TO BE IN THE
BUFFALO HARBOR AND NIAGARA RIVER.

MODEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/WCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 832 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MAINTAINS A FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS EVENING...THIS RIDGE
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH- CENTRAL NEW YORK
TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER
TO A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING OVERHEAD...LOOK
FOR AN EVEN BALMIER NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LOWS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...A SOLD 25 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS RUNNING AROUND +9C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES...AS WELL AS NEAR THE PA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS...PARTICULARLY AT BUFFALO WHERE THE RECORD IS A
COMPARATIVELY SOFT 65 DEGREES...HOWEVER THEY MAY BE HELD JUST SHY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST BY ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ALSO...A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE GUSTING
TO 40 MP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO PARTIAL MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD ARE NECESSARY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKING TO BE
A RATHER WET ONE. READ ON FOR THE DETAILS...

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD...BUT WE CAN BE
THANKFUL THAT THIS WILL NOT INCLUDE THE TYPICAL MARCH EXTREME
WEATHER SCENARIOS THAT RANGE FROM HEAVY SNOW/MIXED WINTRY SLOP TO
EARLY SEASON CONVECTION. A LARGE REASON FOR THIS WILL BE A LOW
AMPLITUDE NORTHERN BRANCH TO A SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL FLOOD THE
COUNTRY WITH PACIFIC BASED AIR. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION...THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS STACKED LOW OVER OLD
MEXICO AND TEXAS.

THIS ONCE IN A GENERATION (30 YR RETURN INTERVIEW) UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STACKED LOW OVER TEXAS...WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR SPRINGLIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT
WILL ALSO DIRECT A PLUME OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.5" (+4 STD) WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MID WEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE NOTEWORTHY STACKED LOW TO PRODUCE SOME SOAKING
RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO
TO THE UPPER MID WEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTH FROM THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE
A 50KT H85 JET WILL TRANSPORT A WEALTH OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR OUR
REGION AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS ONLY
SETTLING TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 50 FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LOWS WILL
BE CLOSER TO 40.

ON THURSDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE DIRECTLY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PACKAGES HAVE BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING THOUGH IN REGARDS TO WHETHER SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES WILL
PROGRESS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY OR IF ONE ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH. IN EITHER CASE...THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL ENHANCE THE
DEEP LIFT ALREADY BEING PROVIDED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE RR QUAD OF
A SCREAMING 170KT H25 OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...AND STRONG H925-70
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 1.5". THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SWATH OF HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF STEADY RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
IT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MOST OF WRN NY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST SFC WAVE...THE FRONT WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE AND NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE PROCESS...ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. 36 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS ENDED EVENT WILL RANGE
FROM ROUGHLY A HALF INCH NEAR THE PA BORDER TO MORE THAN 1.25" FOR
SITES NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS AMOUNT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THE PCPN.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A 24 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE REGION
CAN DRY OUT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE FAIR WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING US A NOTABLE...BUT VERY TEMPORARY COOL DOWN
AS TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 45 AND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A PROGRESSIVE...PACIFIC BASED FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. THE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UNUSUALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN UP AND EVENTUALLY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SYSTEM AND SEVERAL PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE COMMON AS WE MAKE OUR WAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THE
PACIFIC FLOW WITH A TENDENCY TOWARDS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
TO 40-45 KTS AT 2K FT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LLWS SINCE
THESE WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.

THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX DOWN BY
LATE MORNING...LEADING TO SW GUSTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AS
WARMER AIR EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS A REGION OF LOW PRESSURE BEARS DOWN UPON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...THOMAS/WCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 917 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE 23-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 00 UTC NAM NEST CONTINUE TO DEPICT FOG
WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY FORECASTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE POTENTIAL AREA
OF FOG IS NOTED IN THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MENTION OF
FOG EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS BETWEEN US HIGHWAY 85 AND ND HIGHWAY
3.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE 19-22 UTC RAP...HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS AND THE
18 UTC NAM NEST ALL SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FAVORED AREAS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SATURATE
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT FAR NORTHWEST...AND STRATUS/FOG CHANCES
SOUTHEAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOURIS RIVER VALLEY. HERE WE SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGHS. THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL
LIKELY LAG FORECAST HIGHS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONTANA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER. MOST
GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP HERE. THE TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL MONITOR BUT
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...HAZARDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BRUSHING
THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST. ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING OVER
THIS AREA. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN JRV TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WE DRY OUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
EAST TO MID 50S WEST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE
25 TO 3O PERCENT RANGE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. FLOW
ALOFT AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS. HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND BUMPED WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...OVER CURRENT GUIDANCE. THIS PRODUCES SOME 15
TO 20 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
FIRE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND BUMPED UP
WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE. FRIDAY SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER BUT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. COULD BE SOME GULF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL SEE HOW SOON IT ARRIVES. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

IFR/LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KBIS LATE TONIGHT..POST 08
UTC...THROUGH THE MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. MVFR STRATUS AT KJMS THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN TO IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR KISN
AND KDIK THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THESE TERMINALS WILL BE CLOSE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG BANK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 537 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE 19-22 UTC RAP...HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS AND THE
18 UTC NAM NEST ALL SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FAVORED AREAS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SATURATE
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT FAR NORTHWEST...AND STRATUS/FOG CHANCES
SOUTHEAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOURIS RIVER VALLEY. HERE WE SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGHS. THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL
LIKELY LAG FORECAST HIGHS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONTANA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER. MOST
GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP HERE. THE TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL MONITOR BUT
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...HAZARDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BRUSHING
THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST. ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING OVER
THIS AREA. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN JRV TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WE DRY OUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
EAST TO MID 50S WEST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE
25 TO 3O PERCENT RANGE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. FLOW
ALOFT AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS. HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND BUMPED WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...OVER CURRENT GUIDANCE. THIS PRODUCES SOME 15
TO 20 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
FIRE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND BUMPED UP
WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE. FRIDAY SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER BUT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. COULD BE SOME GULF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL SEE HOW SOON IT ARRIVES. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

IFR/LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KBIS LATE TONIGHT..POST 08
UTC...THROUGH THE MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. MVFR STRATUS AT KJMS THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN TO IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN
AND KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CENTER OF THE SFC
LOW IS STILL DOWN OVER NEBRASKA...BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA
THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND 50S ARE NOT THAT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE MODELS
ALL BRING THE WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS BY 06Z...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO...SO
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING THE MAIN ONE AND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
THROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EAST
TOMORROW EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC LOW TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW OUR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 30S AND
40S AND IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GO THROUGH
UNTIL LATE COULD STILL REACH THE 50S. HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS QUIET FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN...RISING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S WEDNESDAY TO THE
40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NW MN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA.

GFS/ECMWF KEEP QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH SFC TEMPS. AT
THIS POINT...HIGHS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S APPEARS LIKELY...WHILE MORE 60S ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AS THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING CEILINGS/VIS. PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG PERSISTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF FARGO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS NORTHWARD
INTO KGFK/KDVL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH OF A
NORTHWARD PUSH AND WITH PEAK HEATING APPROACHING...WENT WITH MORE
OPTIMISTIC VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SFC LOW LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO EVENTUALLY DROP INTO MVFR/IFR RANGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SOME FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOIST LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW TOWARDS KTVF/KBJI.

HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE TUES AM WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT...MAINLY KEPT VCSH FOR NOW.  WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE NORTH ON TUES MORNING AT KGFK/KFAR/KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 311 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ARDMORE TO
JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE, JET MAX, AND SUBTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST, THE DRYLINE HAS NOW NUDGED ITS
WAY INTO NW OK AND IS BULGING INTO EXTREME SW OK AND WESTERN N TX.
CU ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT WHERE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED CIN PRESENT
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY NEAR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BULGE AND NORTHWEST OK, AS HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER E CO. ALL SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY WANE AS THEY MOVE NE INTO STABLE
AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, A MID TO UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX BEFORE 12Z, AND THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO AID IN LIFT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
UP/NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR THROUGH TOMORROW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES (~8 C/KM) ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW OVER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS, IN ADDITION TO MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT. THE
PREVIOUS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS, AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES ACROSS SW OK/W N TX FROM AROUND
06-09Z WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. AFTER WHICH, A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF OUR FA AND INTO TSA`S SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THIS COMPLEX,
BUT IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF ARE PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL RIGHT NOW AND MATCH WELL WITH
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL ASCENT TONIGHT SO THE FORECAST WAS WEIGHED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THEIR TRENDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF THE I44
CORRIDOR.

A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING WED MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER SIGNFICANT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE RED RIVER WITHIN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONG MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL,
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WED, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHCS IMPACTING ZONES SOUTH OF I40 AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  68  54  66 /  40  90  50  70
HOBART OK         58  70  49  65 /  60  80  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  75  54  68 /  80  90  60  40
GAGE OK           50  66  42  63 /  20  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     60  66  48  65 /  30  80  40  60
DURANT OK         61  73  59  67 /  80  80  80  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PENDLETON OR

 948 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING 3 LOWS...ONE NORTH OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND...ONE OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND ONE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW THE CWA IS BETWEEN THE LAST TWO CENTERS. THE
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE IS MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
BE DRY UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z THOUGH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO ORIGINAL
FORECAST COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. GENERALLY SCATTERED CIGS BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FEET AGL
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000 FEET AGL ARE
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM 21Z-02Z BUT THE CHANCES WERE SO LOW AT TAF SITES THAT ONLY
MENTIONED VCSH AT KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS TODAY WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS THROUGH 02Z THEN DROP BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING.
PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2500-3500
FT.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA AND A COOLER SPLIT FLOW WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD STILL BE MILD AND IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S MOUNTAINS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...WITH 20S MOUNTAINS.  ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
AREA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST FOCUS ON THE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 925-
850MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR AN UPSLOPE
FLOW TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.  THERE COULD BE
CONCERN FOR SOME SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TO FLOOD AGAIN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS ARE
TRYING TO HOLD ONTO LOWER SNOW LEVELS KEEPING THE SNOW MELT MINIMAL.
IF MODELS TREND TOWARD A WARMER SNOW LEVEL IN THE COMING DAYS THERE
MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.  WEBER

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR ABOVE 4500-6500 FEET. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS. MODELS
ARE VARYING IN THE MOVEMENT OF WAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH EACH WAVE. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  31  52  34 /  30  20  10  40
ALW  54  33  54  37 /  40  30  10  40
PSC  57  33  54  36 /  20  10  10  30
YKM  56  30  53  32 /  20  10  10  40
HRI  55  32  54  34 /  20  10  10  30
ELN  51  28  48  30 /  30  10  10  40
RDM  48  24  50  32 /  30  20  30  50
LGD  49  28  50  32 /  50  20  10  40
GCD  49  27  49  33 /  50  20  10  50
DLS  55  32  52  37 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/83/83




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PENDLETON OR

 733 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING 3 LOWS...ONE NORTH OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND...ONE OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND ONE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW THE CWA IS BETWEEN THE LAST TWO CENTERS. THE
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE IS MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
BE DRY UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z THOUGH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO ORIGINAL
FORECAST COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. COONFIELD


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2500-3500
FT.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA AND A COOLER SPLIT FLOW WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD STILL BE MILD AND IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S MOUNTAINS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...WITH 20S MOUNTAINS.  ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
AREA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST FOCUS ON THE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 925-
850MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR AN UPSLOPE
FLOW TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.  THERE COULD BE
CONCERN FOR SOME SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TO FLOOD AGAIN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS ARE
TRYING TO HOLD ONTO LOWER SNOW LEVELS KEEPING THE SNOWMELT MINIMAL.
IF MODELS TREND TOWARD A WARMER SNOW LEVEL IN THE COMING
DAYS THERE MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.  WEBER

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR ABOVE 4500-6500 FEET. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS. MODELS
ARE VARYING IN THE MOVEMENT OF WAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH EACH WAVE. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS. 93

AVIATION...12 TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWER CIGS WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 4500 AND 10000 FT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KRDM, KBDN, KDLS AND KYKM EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.  WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR
THE CASCADES WITH A MENTION AT KDLS, KBND AND KRDM. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL BE BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT CIGS BETWEEN
5000 AND 10000 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  31  52  34 /  30  20  10  40
ALW  54  33  54  37 /  40  30  10  40
PSC  57  33  54  36 /  20  10  10  30
YKM  56  30  53  32 /  20  10  10  40
HRI  55  32  54  34 /  20  10  10  30
ELN  51  28  48  30 /  30  10  10  40
RDM  48  24  50  32 /  30  20  30  50
LGD  49  28  50  32 /  50  20  10  40
GCD  49  27  49  33 /  50  20  10  50
DLS  55  32  52  37 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/83/83



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

 248 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

THE WARM UP WILL KICK INTO FULL EFFECT TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. IN THE
MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES AS OF 2AM ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL START OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWS 30S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
THAT CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL
BRING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE NOTED
JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND SEASONALLY
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE REACHING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. THEN...ON THURSDAY...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION MOVING IN. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN QUITE POOR
WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE
LOW ON DETAILS...AND THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH A DRIER THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME LOWER
POPS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
MOVES IN IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THE WEEKEND FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  46  73  53 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  45  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  47  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  40  70  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA/MJB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 950 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRY LINE POSITIONED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. STRONGEST CELLS CONTINUE TO BE FED BY
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
FLOW. THERE STILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND THE RAP IS INDICATING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ DEG C/KM IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND EXTREME LIGHTNING.
TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW BUT AS THESE CELLS PUSH SLOWLY
FARTHER EAST...THEY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A MORE FAVORABLE LCL
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL MEANS THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REGARDING FLOOD POTENTIAL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG
A LINE FROM CENTRAL DIMMITT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH REAL COUNTY.
WHILE THE PLATEAU COUNTIES SHOULD AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL NOW THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONGOING SOUTH OF DIMMITT AND ZAVALA
INDICATES AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH RAIN RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE CELLS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR AND PUSH EAST
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME LIKELY
DELAYING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE. AS SUCH...NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WATCH ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL NEED TO RE-
EVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS AS THIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  76  57  69  55 / 100  70  50  60  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  76  57  69  53 / 100  70  50  60  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  78  57  70  54 / 100  60  50  60  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  73  55  66  52 / 100  60  40  60  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           58  75  54  68  51 /  80  40  40  60  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  74  57  67  54 / 100  70  50  60  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  77  55  70  52 / 100  40  30  60  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  77  57  69  54 / 100  70  50  60  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  77  59  71  55 / 100  80  70  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  77  58  69  54 / 100  50  40  60  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  79  58  71  54 / 100  50  40  50  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 352 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN INITIAL BATCH OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE IS POSITIONED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IT HAS MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS SWEETWATER BUT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING NOW
APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH IS HELPING TO SHARPEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED. LATEST LOOK AT RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES INDICATES THAT A SHARP CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4KM NAM ALSO
SHOWS AN ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE ALTHOUGH IT COULD PUT DOWN ANOTHER BAND OF AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. IN ALL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL TONIGHT IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35W AND AREAS
WEST.

TUESDAY...IS OUR MAIN DAY IN QUESTION REGARDING THE FORECAST AS IT
COULD VERY WELL BE MOSTLY QUIET OR RATHER ACTIVE. IT IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO POPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL MAIN AREAS OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WEST OF I-35. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A RATHER UNPERTURBED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WEAKLY
CAPPED. THIS SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES BACK WEAKLY IN THE MID LEVELS
LIKELY INDICATING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE...THEN IT MAY BE A
QUIET DAY...ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM. IF THE SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT
EXIST AND WE HAVE ANY LIFT AT ALL...THEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ON THE AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY
ANY DATA FROM 12 OR 18Z SOUNDINGS TOMORROW CAN OFFER. FOR NOW...WE
WILL SIDE WITH LOWER OVERALL POPS AND MONITOR THE THREAT CLOSELY.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WARM ADVECTION STREAMER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

THE NEXT LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE TIME WHEN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...EAST OF THE METROPLEX FOR
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
COULD SEE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
DISCREPANCIES GROW REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. WE CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING THUNDER AND LOW CEILINGS.

METROPLEX TAF SITES HAVE ALREADY BEEN IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. A RELATIVE LULL IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE GLEN ROSE CORNERPOST REACHES
THE METROPLEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDER MAY BRIDGE THE
GAP BETWEEN THE TWO EVENTS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CAPPED...THESE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY.

AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING...ONLY
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN A RE-STRENGTHENING LLJ ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTANT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MAY IMPACT EARLY MORNING DEPARTURES TO THE WEST...AND MAY
DISRUPT THE BOWIE CORNERPOST MUCH OF THE MORNING.

A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LACK OF FORCING MAY PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHOSEN NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SHOWERS AND FINE-TUNE POTENTIAL WINDOW FOR THUNDER WITH FUTURE
PACKAGES.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  75  60  68  57 /  80  50 100  60  50
WACO, TX              66  77  59  70  56 /  60  40 100  60  50
PARIS, TX             62  72  61  68  58 /  70  90 100  90  50
DENTON, TX            64  74  59  68  56 /  80  50 100  60  50
MCKINNEY, TX          65  74  60  67  56 /  80  50 100  70  50
DALLAS, TX            68  75  60  69  58 /  70  50 100  70  50
TERRELL, TX           67  75  60  69  58 /  60  60 100  80  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  76  61  69  58 /  50  50 100  70  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  78  59  70  56 /  60  40 100  50  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  77  57  68  54 /  80  50  80  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1226 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF DKR AREA AT 18Z. WINDS HAVE CRANKED
UP TO 15-25G24-33...BORDERLINE LLWS NOW BUT OVERNIGHT LLWS
CERTAINLY COME INTO PLAY WITH 40-50KT 925MB WINDS. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TODAY INTO 2500-4000FT RANGE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN LOWERING INTO 1000-1800FT RANGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND WILL CARRY VCSH 03Z ALL SITES BUT
GLS AND THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON STRONG SSE-SE WINDS FREQUENT
SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO AVIATION OPERATIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS/TSRA/SVR+/HEAVY RAIN.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...
A STOUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING /ON
THE ORDER OF A 4 MB CHANGE FROM THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES PER LAPS ANALYSIS... ABOUT 140 MILES/ AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS...
COMBINED WITH MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE /KHGX AND
KGRK VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING 30 TO 40 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SURFACE/... WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE HOUSTON... WALKER... MONTGOMERY... HARRIS... GALVESTON...
AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ADDITIONALLY... WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BENEATH A CAPPING
INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850 MB ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. TRENDS IN
THE HRRR SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND HAVE CONTINUED 20 POP/ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH... BUT THINK CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING.

FOR THE MARINE UPDATE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
MATAGORDA BAY.

THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
HAZARDS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... PARTICULARLY IN THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
WILL ADD 20 POPS TO COVER THE DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWERS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OB TRENDS SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS WERE BECOMING
MORE PREVALENT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS VFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST
OF HOUSTON THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FROM THE BIG AIRPORTS SOUTH. KGLS IS TRICKY AND THE MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWED A MORE VFR PROFILE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CHANCES
INCREASE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KGLS AS WELL TOWARD
MIDDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TONIGHT AND IFR
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
TIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. KHGX VWP SHOWS 35-40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
AND MUCH OF THAT WIND ENERGY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 20
TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE AND
VERY DRY AIR AT 700 MB. A SATURATED LAYER GROWS IN DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY SO PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP THIS
AFTN. FEEL 20 POPS WILL WORK FOR NOW. THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENS
FURTHER TONIGHT BUT PROFILES REMAIN DRY AT AND ABOVE 700 MB.
BUMPED POPS UPWARD AS THE CAP WEAKENS A BIT.

TUESDAY...A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS TO CONTEND WITH. A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ELEVATED TIDES TO PART OF GALVESTON...
CHAMBERS AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES. TIDE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
3.1 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 4.1 FEET TUES
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WATER ACROSS HWY 87 SO A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
A WARNING TONIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALSO CREATED
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ANYONE HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY SHOULD
USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT INTO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE JETTIES.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG INTO NW MEXICO DURING THE DAY.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES SURGE TO 1.6 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
18Z. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT SO WOULD
EXPECTED SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NAM12/ECMWF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND BOTH INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF I-45 WITH LAPSE RATES
INCREASING...HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300 AND LI`S AROUND -5.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW IS STRONGLY
DIVERGENT AND A 110 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL BE APPROACHING SE TX. SE
TX WILL LIE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH 12Z
WEDS. PW VALUES SURGE TO 1.85 INCHES LATE TUES/EARLY WED. THIS
MOISTURE LEVEL IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUPER SATURATED PROFILE WHICH IS GENERALLY A
SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH 100 POPS AND ADDED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS. HELD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT FEEL
ONE WILL BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT NEARS. WILL HOLD OFF ON SEVERE
WORDING FOR NOW BUT PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER THAT FAVOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 60 KNOTS
AND HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 400 M2/S2 BETWEEN 09-12Z WED. CAPE
REMAINS MODEST BUT THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND WIND ENERGY IS
IMPRESSIVE. WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH THIS TYPE OF SET UP. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR GOOD
NEWS...TIDE LEVELS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM ENDS THE RAIN BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP PRECIP GOING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. JET DYNAMICS WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SO THE NAM MIGHT BE
ON TO SOMETHING. NOT SURE HOW THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT BUT
LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST BUT JET
DYNAMICS LOOK MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. THE ECMWF TARGETS A DEEP PLUME
OF MOISTURE INTO SE TX AND KEEPS RAIN GOING WED NITE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE JET DYNAMICS PLACE SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF
THE JET SO PREFER THE DRIER NAM/GFS/CANADIAN OVER THE ECMWF.
CURRENTLY HAVE 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FEEL THESE MIGHT BE TOO
HIGH. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ALMOST RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN A BIT AND PW VALUES INCREASE AGAIN WITH PROFILES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED. SHOULD GET ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER LOW. NOTHING EXCESSIVE BUT DECENT
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FEEL THE GFS IS WAY OVERDONE WITH THE NEXT
S/WV FOR SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE
SO LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 43

MARINE...
A BUSY WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS THE
AREA WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM A STRONG STORM SYSTEM 5HAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. ONSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY GENERATING ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS...
THINK THAT EITHER CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE WINDS...SO MUCH SO THAT A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FORECASTING WIND GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY LEAD TO RISES IN TIDE
LEVELS. DURING THE PEAK OF THE WINDS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AM EXPECTING NEAR CRITICAL TIDE LEVELS...VERY STRONG
CURRENTS...AND RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL NEED TO STAY ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  66  77  65  71 /  20  40  70 100  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  66  76  67  73 /  20  20  80 100  90
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  66  72  65  71 /  10  20  80 100  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1042 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
A STOUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING /ON
THE ORDER OF A 4 MB CHANGE FROM THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES PER LAPS ANALYSIS... ABOUT 140 MILES/ AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS...
COMBINED WITH MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE /KHGX AND
KGRK VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING 30 TO 40 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SURFACE/... WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE HOUSTON... WALKER... MONTGOMERY... HARRIS... GALVESTON...
AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ADDITIONALLY... WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BENEATH A CAPPING
INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850 MB ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. TRENDS IN
THE HRRR SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND HAVE CONTINUED 20 POP/ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH... BUT THINK CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING.

FOR THE MARINE UPDATE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
MATAGORDA BAY.

THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
HAZARDS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... PARTICULARLY IN THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
WILL ADD 20 POPS TO COVER THE DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWERS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OB TRENDS SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS WERE BECOMING
MORE PREVALENT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS VFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST
OF HOUSTON THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FROM THE BIG AIRPORTS SOUTH. KGLS IS TRICKY AND THE MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWED A MORE VFR PROFILE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CHANCES
INCREASE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KGLS AS WELL TOWARD
MIDDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TONIGHT AND IFR
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
TIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. KHGX VWP SHOWS 35-40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
AND MUCH OF THAT WIND ENERGY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 20
TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE AND
VERY DRY AIR AT 700 MB. A SATURATED LAYER GROWS IN DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY SO PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP THIS
AFTN. FEEL 20 POPS WILL WORK FOR NOW. THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENS
FURTHER TONIGHT BUT PROFILES REMAIN DRY AT AND ABOVE 700 MB.
BUMPED POPS UPWARD AS THE CAP WEAKENS A BIT.

TUESDAY...A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS TO CONTEND WITH. A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ELEVATED TIDES TO PART OF GALVESTON...
CHAMBERS AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES. TIDE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
3.1 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 4.1 FEET TUES
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WATER ACROSS HWY 87 SO A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
A WARNING TONIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALSO CREATED
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ANYONE HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY SHOULD
USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT INTO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE JETTIES.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG INTO NW MEXICO DURING THE DAY.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES SURGE TO 1.6 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
18Z. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT SO WOULD
EXPECTED SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NAM12/ECMWF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND BOTH INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF I-45 WITH LAPSE RATES
INCREASING...HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300 AND LI`S AROUND -5.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW IS STRONGLY
DIVERGENT AND A 110 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL BE APPROACHING SE TX. SE
TX WILL LIE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH 12Z
WEDS. PW VALUES SURGE TO 1.85 INCHES LATE TUES/EARLY WED. THIS
MOISTURE LEVEL IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUPER SATURATED PROFILE WHICH IS GENERALLY A
SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH 100 POPS AND ADDED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS. HELD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT FEEL
ONE WILL BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT NEARS. WILL HOLD OFF ON SEVERE
WORDING FOR NOW BUT PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER THAT FAVOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 60 KNOTS
AND HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 400 M2/S2 BETWEEN 09-12Z WED. CAPE
REMAINS MODEST BUT THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND WIND ENERGY IS
IMPRESSIVE. WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH THIS TYPE OF SET UP. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR GOOD
NEWS...TIDE LEVELS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM ENDS THE RAIN BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP PRECIP GOING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. JET DYNAMICS WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SO THE NAM MIGHT BE
ON TO SOMETHING. NOT SURE HOW THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT BUT
LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST BUT JET
DYNAMICS LOOK MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. THE ECMWF TARGETS A DEEP PLUME
OF MOISTURE INTO SE TX AND KEEPS RAIN GOING WED NITE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE JET DYNAMICS PLACE SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF
THE JET SO PREFER THE DRIER NAM/GFS/CANADIAN OVER THE ECMWF.
CURRENTLY HAVE 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FEEL THESE MIGHT BE TOO
HIGH. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ALMOST RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN A BIT AND PW VALUES INCREASE AGAIN WITH PROFILES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED. SHOULD GET ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER LOW. NOTHING EXCESSIVE BUT DECENT
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FEEL THE GFS IS WAY OVERDONE WITH THE NEXT
S/WV FOR SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE
SO LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 43

MARINE...
A BUSY WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS THE
AREA WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM A STRONG STORM SYSTEM 5HAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. ONSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY GENERATING ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS...
THINK THAT EITHER CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE WINDS...SO MUCH SO THAT A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FORECASTING WIND GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY LEAD TO RISES IN TIDE
LEVELS. DURING THE PEAK OF THE WINDS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AM EXPECTING NEAR CRITICAL TIDE LEVELS...VERY STRONG
CURRENTS...AND RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL NEED TO STAY ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  66  77  65  71 /  20  40  70 100  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  66  76  67  73 /  20  20  80 100  90
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  66  72  65  71 /  10  20  80 100  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1031 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERLY LLVL JET OF 40 TO 45 KTS IS
ANALYZED TO BE DRAPED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF S TX
AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. RESULT SHOULD BE A
CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG SFC WINDS TODAY /WEAKER
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...BUT STILL GUSTY/. HAVE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY IN THE FORECAST AND
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MUCH STRONGER WINDS MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH A FEW
GUSTS/SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS.
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING ARE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO INHERITED FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 12Z GFS AND
LATEST RUC WANT TO ERODE THE CAP ACROSS THE NW CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE/MONITOR AND MAKE ADDITIONAL UPDATES...AS NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  70  82  67  79  /  10  30  20  80  70
VICTORIA          77  69  81  65  77  /  20  40  40  80  80
LAREDO            91  69  90  63  78  /  10  10  20  80  40
ALICE             83  70  86  66  80  /  10  20  20  80  60
ROCKPORT          74  70  76  69  76  /  10  30  40  80  80
COTULLA           88  67  87  63  77  /  10  10  20  80  40
KINGSVILLE        81  71  86  66  80  /  10  20  20  80  60
NAVY CORPUS       76  70  77  69  75  /  10  20  30  80  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1027 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD SPREADING EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE. IT HAS BEEN A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...THOUGH THE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE PREVENTING RECORD HIGHS. A FEW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RH VALUES HOVERING AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 25 MPH THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND PRONE AREAS WERE NOT A PROBLEM TODAY WITH CLOUDS
INHIBITING LOW-LEVEL MIXING.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN UPSTREAM...SO BELIEVE THE HRRR SOLUTION WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. ADDED SOME LOW
END POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT WE
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. TOMORROW MAY
BE QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF I25 WITH SBCAPES AROUND 250-500
J/KG. WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING...ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS IN
THOSE AREAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES. SNOW IS LIKELY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES THRU
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. A SOLID 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. CONSIDERED AN ADZY
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT EXPECT IMPACTS TO BE LOW OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WE
COULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND EXCELLENT H7 FRONTOGENESIS. WITH REGARD TO QPF...THE GFS AND ECM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH ALONG/EAST OF I25. NAM IS
AN OUTLIER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. TEND
TO FAVOR WESTERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IS CHALLENGING WITH THE VERY WARM
PRE-FRONTAL AIR. GFS/NAM WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGESTS A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW IN CHEYENNE BY MID EVENING...THE FAR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. ELEVATIONS AT
OR BELOW 4500 FEET MAY SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. GENERALLY EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
ONE INCH...BUT COULD SEE A LOT MORE IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. DECREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SPLIT PATTERN ALOFT
AT MID-WEEK WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DOMINATING
THE CWA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ON WED
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 50S. NOT
MUCH CHANGE FOR THURS AND FRI WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING
AS A MEAN RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS & UPPER
MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE
INCREASING WITH 700MB WINDS 40-45 KT THURS. WINDS DECREASE A BIT
FRI. THE PROLONGED DRY PATTERN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER THREAT MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. CHANGES OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE
MAIN ENERGY PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH
A MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT DO EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING OUT WEST BY RAWLINS...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. INSTABILITY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
AROUND 500-600 J/KG. DID ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TAFS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE A PERIOD LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS WILL SEE RAIN TURNING
OVER TO SNOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 10-20 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEYOND TODAY...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LIKELY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 317 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH ONE STREAM HEADED NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND A MORE DOMINANT FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA INTO AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL NOT MAKE MUCH ZONAL OR MERIDIONAL PROGRESS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RESULT (ALREADY IS) IN AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE NOW FULLY FORMED
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL ACT
AS A WALL AGAINST THE TROUGH/LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
PROTECT OUR REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME FROM THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER OCCURRING TO OUR WEST/NW.

00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RIDGE AND
INVERSION ONLY BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED AND SEMI-
STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...WITH RIDGING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE CENTER WILL PROVIDE A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF BKN STATOCU (BASED ABOVE 4KFT) MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY WARM...RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A GENERALLY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNDER THE CONTROL OF STACKED RIDGING. DRY
MID-LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR
ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY. IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS FOR EARLY/MID MARCH AND
EXCELLENT DIURNAL MIXING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MIDDLE 80S TODAY...AND PERHAPS AN EXTRA
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY.

EVEN THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET FAIRLY WARM.
STRONG SYNOPTIC FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MAKE SEA-BREEZE
FORMATION AND/OR INLAND PENETRATION DIFFICULT. BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING THE BOUNDARY MAKE ANY PROGRESS INLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE UP TOWARD CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE RIDGE AXIS.

HAVE A GREAT MID-WEEK PERIOD. ENJOY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN THE BATTLE
OVER OUR WEATHER FOR A COUPLE DAYS FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REENTER THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MORE
ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THE FORECAST WARM AND DRY. THIS RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SAT AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
STARTS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX...WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW AND A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF. THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUN THEN THE GREAT LAKES MON...DAMPENING OUT IT DOES...DRAGGING
THE SURFACE LOW WITH IT AND SWEEPING THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF. IN
THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THEN EAST TO THE KY/TN AREA.. KEEPING BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. BY TUE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST
INTO THE GULF WITH AN AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH ONLY MINOR
TIMING AND LOCATIONS ISSUES ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CONUS BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE. HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WITH ONLY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST ODDS WILL BE SUN
WHEN THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. EXPECT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MON AND MON EVENING THEN DRY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
SLIGHTLY THEY WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT ONLY MODEST SPEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. BKN- OVC
STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
4KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW...GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
LATER MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
MAY AT TIMES APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20NM DURING THESE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. BEYOND THURSDAY THE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING OUR LOCAL WEATHER DRY...WARM...AND BREEZY.
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ON SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF
THE ATLANTIC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL VALUES OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL ALSO GENERALLY PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CRITERIA DUE TO WIND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST ZONES...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD EVENTS. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL DEAL WITH THE WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY...WITH HIGH LEVELS
OF SMOKE DISPERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  64  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  83  63  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  83  61  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  78  65  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  84  61  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  81  64  81  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

 913 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO OVERNIGHT. AS OF
04Z PRECIP WAS EXITING SE OREGON AND WILL CLEAR THE LOWER SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS
ALONG WITH S-CENTRAL ID WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS ACROSS SW IDAHO WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS SE OREGON ZONES AND TREASURE VALLEY FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z/WED AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WED AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-20KT BY 21Z/WED.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT BECOMING SW 40-55KT BY
00Z/THU /STRONGEST IN CENTRAL OREGON/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
IN THE WAKE OF A WAVE THAT DEPARTED THIS MORNING...AND IN ADVANCE
OF A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH A DEVELOPING RIDGE TOMORROW. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...AND IT WILL ENTER
SE OREGON WED MORNING AND GET THROUGH THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN OREGON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA WED NIGHT...ALLOWING EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO ARRIVE...AND WE
WILL ENTER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO. THERE WILL EVEN
BE A CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY ON
THU BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH. EARLIER MODEL RUNS PUT THE TREASURE VALLEY...FOR EX...INTO
THE MID 60S ON THU. HOWEVER...MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD...TO NEAR 60. IN THIS CASE...DUE TO STRONG SE WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...WE FEEL THE WARMER TEMPS ARE WARRANTED...
AND HAVE ONLY TRIMMED BACK EARLIER FORECAST MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO...LEAVING THEM IN THE MID 60S. FINALLY...THE HRRR IS
INDICATING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WE HAVE RETAINED MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST
AREAS. THIS PRECIP WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING IN SE OREGON AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ON EASTERN OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME. FRIDAY
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AREA...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL RISING TO AROUND 7000
FEET. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW SITS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA. MONDAY
IS WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. GFS WANTS TO SPLIT
THE LOW IN TWO AND BUILDS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THIS LOW FURTHER EAST. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW
A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHIFT....FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHWEST...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES MAKING
THEM DROP DOWN TO WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/JC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 325 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A cold front will slowly drift into IL from the west today, reaching
near the Illinois river around Noon/18z, and along the I-55 corridor
by 6 pm/00z. A break in the rain is likely to start off the day, as
one wave departs to the northeast and the before the next shortwave
begins to affect the area this afternoon. The presence of the cold
front alone could allow for spotty showers to develop before the big
northward push of rain later this afternoon. The RAP shows a line of
light showers near the front along the Illinois river from mid to
late morning, which the HRRR also shows for one hour at 17z/11am.
The prevailing agreement in the short term models is on rain showers
overspreading our forecast area from the south later this
afternoon. Areas south of I-70 have the best chances for rain this
afternoon, with showers most likely advancing up to the I-72
corridor by sunset. The better chances of thunder would be mainly
south of I-70 this afternoon, but instability parameters are
marginal at best today. Spotty showers could develop north of I-72
before evening, but most areas north of I-72 will see dry conditions
prevail for a majority of the day. Have limited PoPs quite a bit
this morning, with many areas dry, then ramped up PoPs to
categorical this afternoon for areas along and south of I-72. A mix
of chance and slight chance PoPs were included north of I-72.
Rainfall amounts today should generally remain a quarter inch or
less, with heavier rains expected beyond today.

Warm temps are expected again today, despite little to no sunshine.
Highs will reach the low 60s near Galesburg, with mid to upper 60s
elsewhere. Wind directions and speeds will be tied to the timing and
advancement of the cold front. South winds will prevail ahead of the
cold front in the eastern half of Illinois. Along the front, winds
will become light and variable, with northwest winds behind the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Have had to make some significant edits to the forecast across the
northwest part of the CWA in regards to this heavy rain event.
Evening model guidance has shifted the heavy rain focus down toward
the I-70 corridor, and the front will be down in that general
vicinity by evening. GFS suggests the area near Galesburg could be
done with the rain chances as early as this afternoon, while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM bring some light rain that far north
this evening. While I have kept likely PoP`s going across the
Illinois River valley, I reduced them to only slight chances
Thursday and went dry Thursday night/Friday in that area.

Further southeast, will be hoisting a flash flood watch for the
areas along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon. The frontal boundary will loiter in that area overnight,
as low pressure rides northeast along the front. Greatest moisture
advection focusing on the Ohio Valley northward to about I-70, with
precipitable water values up to about 1.5 inches tonight. Tonight
and early Thursday would be the primary concern for the heaviest
rain, as the low moves through. Fly in the ointment may be the
extensive convection currently across east Texas and far southern
Arkansas, potentially interrupting some of the moisture feed into
our area. Went with near 100% PoP`s for that area tonight and
Thursday, before phasing them out during the evening.

Most of the models keep Friday and Friday evening dry, with high
pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes. Main moisture surge
will be late Friday evening and overnight, as the upper low slowly
tracks northeast out of Texas and shears out. Right now, Saturday
night and Sunday look to have the highest weekend PoP`s, as the
remnant wave moves through the area.

Temperatures to remain quite mild during the period, with the only
real cooler surge associated with the passing high pressure Thursday
night and Friday. Associated east/northeast flow may dip lows across
the far northern CWA into the upper 30s Friday morning, but
temperatures in general remain well above normal into next week.
Upper level ridging early next week will bring 850 mb temperatures
around 15C by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

An intensifying low level jet appears to be driving a broken band
of showers from west to east across the terminal sites the next 1
to 3 hours. A dry slot has already reached SPI. Timing tools show
the back edge of the rain should reach PIA around 07z, and
eventually DEC and CMI between 08z-09z. MVFR ceilings should
accompany the rain, along with a brief period of MVFR vis to 2sm
BR during rain. Upstream observations show some IFR cloud decks
back in Missouri, so can not rule out some IFR conditions later
tonight after rain ends. Instability appears to be too weak to
create convective updrafts tonight, so have removed all mention of
thunder in this TAF issuance.

A slow moving cold front will push south into central IL tomorrow,
possibly allowing some clearing for PIA and BMI, with MVFR and
possibly IFR clouds likely remaining over the southern terminals
of SPI, DEC and CMI.

As low pressure progresses NE along the cold front later this
afternoon and tonight, rain and scattered storms will increase
coverage from south to north. SPI and DEC will have the best
chances of seeing a thunderstorm Wed evening, as the surface low
pressure comes closer to central IL.

Winds will be varying over the next 24 hours, with south winds
around 10 kt becoming SW by sunrise. Then winds will shift to the
west as the cold front arrives from the west, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front for PIA and BMI. The front will stall
across the southern terminals, where winds will become light and
variable.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from noon CST today through Thursday afternoon
for ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1203 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

Updates this evening have been tied to the north-south oriented wave
of rain and isolated thunderstorms that is advancing slowly
eastward from western Illinois. The precip chances were updated to
indicate the slower eastward progression of the wave. Forecast
soundings show MUCAPES of 150-200 J/kg in our western counties,
with those conditions expanding eastward by morning. The latest HRRR
and RAP models show some drying conditions in northern IL
tomorrow, advancing southward toward I-74. Have reflected that
trend PoPs for Wed. The remainder of the forecast is generally on
track, with steady south winds at 10-15mph and lows in the upper
50s. Updated forecast info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

Will renew the ESF product to address the heavy rains in the
forecast next few days over central and southeast IL. Will hold off
on issuing flood watch overnight into Thu morning due to latest
forecast models backing off on qpf amounts with 1st round of
precipitation tonight. 999 mb surface low pressure over northern MN
has a cold front into nw IA and central KS and this front is
expected to move east into western/nw IL around 12Z/6 am Wed. This
front interacting with increasing low level jet and moisture along
with short wave ejecting from central/southern plains ne into IL
later this evening and overnight will develop showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts tonight will average a quarter to
half inch with locally higher amounts west of I-57. Breezy SSW winds
of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph giving unseasonably mild
temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon with some
sunshine. Expect clouds to increase late today into this evening and
south winds of 10-20 mph tonight to only allow temps to cool into
the upper 50s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

A heavy rain event is setting up for parts of central Illinois for
later Wednesday into Thursday, with some uncertainty as to how much
rain may occur through the weekend which may exacerbate any flooding
that does occur.

Lingering showers and t-storms from later tonight should be waning
Wednesday morning as the low level jet and moisture transport
weakens and veers toward daybreak. This could still result in a
quick 0.50 inch of rain in central IL by mid-morning.

After a brief break in the rain from late morning into early
afternoon, a low pressure center and its associated mid/upper level
support will move out of the ARKLATEX region toward the mid-
Mississippi River valley and central IL. This will combine with deep
moisture, precipitable water values in excess of 1.50" and the
increasing low level jet to produce heavy rain east of the I-55
corridor Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts
of 1.50-2.00 inches are likely in this area, with locally higher
amounts.

However, holding off on a Flash Flood Watch for now since the models
are still showing disagreement as to the location of heavy rain
potential for Wednesday night. The European model has been
consistent in showing a gradual shift east and southeast with the
heavy rain axis toward east and southeast IL, with the NAM and GFS
somewhere between the IL River and I-55 for the heavy rain axis.
Also, due to the expected lull in the rain during the day Wednesday,
and peak of rainfall holding off until Wednesday night, there is
more time to assess the situation.

A northern stream shortwave is expected to push the front and
rainfall through central and eastern IL Thursday night. A few
showers may linger in southeast IL Friday, otherwise dry conditions
will prevail with weak flow around a high pressure area moving
through the Great Lakes. The front is then expected to return
northward by Saturday as an upper level low in the Rio Grande valley
gets kicked out by a piece of energy moving across the southwestern
U.S. This will bring another round of rainfall to our region from
late Friday night through the entire weekend.

The medium range models are in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, however there are differences in the amount of rainfall
that is anticipated. The GFS is pointing toward higher rainfall
amounts in central IL than the European, particularly Saturday
night. For now will trend more toward the Euro model, but will need
to keep a close eye on this, especially if the area is inundated
from the first round of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

An intensifying low level jet appears to be driving a broken band
of showers from west to east across the terminal sites the next 1
to 3 hours. A dry slot has already reached SPI. Timing tools show
the back edge of the rain should reach PIA around 07z, and
eventually DEC and CMI between 08z-09z. MVFR ceilings should
accompany the rain, along with a brief period of MVFR vis to 2sm
BR during rain. Upstream observations show some IFR cloud decks
back in Missouri, so can not rule out some IFR conditions later
tonight after rain ends. Instability appears to be too weak to
create convective updrafts tonight, so have removed all mention of
thunder in this TAF issuance.

A slow moving cold front will push south into central IL tomorrow,
possibly allowing some clearing for PIA and BMI, with MVFR and
possibly IFR clouds likely remaining over the southern terminals
of SPI, DEC and CMI.

As low pressure progresses NE along the cold front later this
afternoon and tonight, rain and scattered storms will increase
coverage from south to north. SPI and DEC will have the best
chances of seeing a thunderstorm Wed evening, as the surface low
pressure comes closer to central IL.

Winds will be varying over the next 24 hours, with south winds
around 10 kt becoming SW by sunrise. Then winds will shift to the
west as the cold front arrives from the west, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front for PIA and BMI. The front will stall
across the southern terminals, where winds will become light and
variable.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1127 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS ON LEADING EDGE ARRIVING
A BIT FASTER...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOOKS TO TAPER OFF QUICKER WITH
BACK EDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO NORTHEAST MO. HAVE
THEREFORE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THESE TRENDS WITH HIGHEST POPS AND
GREATEST QPF THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT UNTIL FRONT PASSES. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY AROUND 0.5 INCH. HAVE ALSO LOWERED PRECIP FROM QUAD
CITIES E/SE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST ARRIVING GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA... WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVANCING NEWD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN THE PLAINS.

OBSERVATION AND RAP MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A NEW ROUND OF MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEEN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS
TO SIGOURNEY IOWA LINE.

RAP AND OTHER MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEEN DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. SOUTH OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

INTERNALLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BEING DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CUTOFF LOW AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.  WITH THE LOW CUTOFF
TO THE SOUTH AND NO APPRECIABLE WAVE TO KICK IT OUT...THE MODELS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PRODUCE PRECIP WITH THE SSW FLOW AS WAVES
TRANSVERSES THE FLOW BEFORE IT MOVES OUT.  OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR
THOSE SYSTEMS TO CLIP THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE 18Z NAM IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE QPF OUT OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SWATH OF QPF.
THE BULK OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO FALL FROM ST LOUIS TO THE SOUTH SIDE
OF CHICAGO.  EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS TREND KEEPS UP AND MOST OF THE QPF ACTUALLY MISSES THE CWA.  MY
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE OVERDONE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE TREND THAT THE ECMWF AND GEM
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...THE GFS FINALLY BOUGHT INTO WITH H5 RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH NO WAVE TO KICK OUT THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TX...THIS RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH TEMPS THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.  THE NEXT WAVE
DOESNT APPROACH THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK NORTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE
AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA.  MY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS LOW AS CLOSED LOWS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.  I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...BUT I DONT THINK IT WILL LAST THE WHOLE TIME.  AS THE NEXT
WAVE HITS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...FORECAST SKILL SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WILL START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN OR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AM.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 07Z TO 12Z WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. ANTICIPATE RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MAY LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF MLI AND BRL
TERMINALS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1233 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH ERN ND/NW MN. WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM ASSOC SFC
LOW OVER MN HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT HAS ALSO
LIFTED NORTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI. ADDED MOISTURE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SHORTWAVE OVER ND/MN MOVES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT. ALSO
COULD BE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SSW FLOW INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
20Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR WRN U.P.
BUT CONTINUED MID-LVL DRYING AND LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER WEST INTO THE EVENING. LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS AREA WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG SO WILL ISSUE A SPS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA.
COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S NW WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS WL STAY CLOSER TO THE MID
40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE HALF OF FORECAST AREA WED
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SHRA SHORTLY AFT 12Z
OVER THE NW FCST...BUT OTHERWISE BUILDING RIDGE FM NORTH AND ASSOC
INCREASED DRYING AND ANTICYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST LATE IN DAY UNDER LOW-LVL DIFFLUENT NE FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SCNTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

...WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...

THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE E COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE THE N TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW
ACROSS MEXICO. THE PROGRESSIVE N WAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE E
09-21Z THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE SFC. MIXED
PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN IF ANYTHING DOES FALL. 850MB TEMPS ARE
HOVERING NEAR 0C AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS LOWER MI...A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THE 500MB TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE CUT OFF LOW TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO TX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SFC HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL SINK ACROSS LOWER MI BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST OF NE COAST SATURDAY.

LOW TRACKS ACROSS N ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR N...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W COAST FRIDAY WILL HELP EJECT THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER TX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LONG PROCESS THROUGH WITH
THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE S
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE OVERLY EXCITED GFS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE BACKED BY THE ECMWF AND IDEA
THAT THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER MI. WHILE A SFC

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE PRECIP RETURNING TO UPPER MI AS
EARLY AS 21Z SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THIS SOLUTION FOR WHAT IS NOW DAY 5. CHANCE POPS COULD SHOW UP AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY OVER THE SE. THE S LOW OVER S LAKE MI BY 06Z MONDAY
LOOKS TO EXIT E...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES SWING IT ACROSS LOWER MI
MONDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN THIS DAY 6-7 FCST...AND WILL
GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS
FCST MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR N...ACROSS N ONTARIO/S HUDSON BAY MONDAY-
TUESDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI.

END/KF
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016

DENSE FOG AT KCMX AND KSAW IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH GREATER MIXING. THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
LOW DEPARTING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL ALSO BRING LOWER CIGS INTO IWD
OVERNIGHT...PER UPSTREAM OBS. ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER WED
MORNING...NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN ENOUGH DRIER AIR FOR
CLEARING AT IWD AND SAW. HOWEVER....UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 357 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER TO WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY AND
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.

00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD..WITH SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
LIES ROUGHLY FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO DULUTH AS OF 05Z. ORGANIZED
PRECIP HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT ALL TAF SITES..BUT PERIOD OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
MOST TAF SITES.

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTING KBRD/KHYR WED
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  27  44  30 /  40  10   0   0
INL  36  21  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  40  27  50  31 /  50   0   0   0
HYR  41  28  47  29 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  38  27  44  28 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
CLIMATE...WFO DLH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

 345 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A hazy morning awaits our Wednesday, as low clouds and some reduced
visibilities persist through the morning hours before breaking up
later in the morning or early afternoon.  Cold frontal boundary is
currently situated near the KC metro, running southwest to northeast
along a KCNU to KDVN line. Near this frontal boundary winds have
become light and variable, which is adding to the fog potential,
given moist conditions. With the better moisture across the southern
2/3 of the CWA cloud cover is a little more ample across those
areas, as opposed to far northwest Missouri, where skies are mostly
clear. As the frontal boundary slowly pushes further and further
southeast the better moisture will gradually become scoured out and
skies will become clearer through the day. This forecast package
reflects a somewhat significant change to the going precipitation
forecast, mainly in the south/southeast 1/2 of the CWA. Expect that
frontal boundary to push far enough east to focus the better low
level ascent across areas of southwest to east central Missouri.
Behind the front, precipitation will be limited, as isentropic lift
appears to be minimized very far north from the immediate boundary.
As a result dramatically reduced PoPs across the far southern and
eastern couple rows of counties for the rest of today. The same
change will be in place for Thursday as well, as surface ridging
takes a firm grasp of the northern plains, and eventually the lower
Missouri River Valley. As a result, expect conditions to be dry
across the area, as the better moisture remains across central and
southern Missouri. Despite the surface ridging (which generally
brings a cool down) temperatures on Thursday will be rather balmy
with highs in the middle to upper 60s, with an outside look at lower
70s.

By late in the week rain chances will return to most of the area,
as the strong mid level trough remains cut off from the ambient mid
level flow and eventually reenters the main flow. Once it reenters
the mid level flow it will eject toward the northeast through
ArkLaTex region and eventually into the lower Missouri River Valley.
As the trough pushes north it will bring good moisture with it,
which will be ample for another round of showers and thunderstorms
likely starting Friday night, and persisting off-and-on through the
day on Saturday morning. The main period of moderate to perhaps
heavy rain will be during the overnight hours on Friday night. PWAT
values will range between an inch to perhaps an inch and half. So,
while there won`t be staggering amounts of moisture, there will be
enough to bring at least a few hours of steady moderate rain. The
00z GFS struggles to introduce much in the way of MU Cape for Friday
night, so while there could be an isolated rumble of thunder or two,
do not expect widespread thunderstorms Friday night. As mentioned
earlier the trough will push northeast through the Missouri and
Mississippi River Valleys, thus ending the widespread stead rain by
early Saturday morning, and leaving perhaps a few scraps of light
rain around for the morning and afternoon hours on Saturday.

The beginning of next week appears to be dry and warm with steady
southerly flow at the surface and some mid level ridging. With
normal highs generally in the lower 50s for mid march, the middle 70
degree temperatures will bring a much-above normal forecast for the
early part of next week.

The focus then shifts to middle next week where a persistently
indicated trough will likely move into and through the forecast
area. Good southerly flow could bring a steady amount of
precipitation northward preceding the trough. GFS and ECMWF are a
bit at odds regarding the timing of this trough, but both are in
general consensus that good moisture will be in place and that the
strong trough will come through sometime in the middle part of the
week. Too early to get into specifics at this point, but this
particular system could be a potential thunderstorm producer.  Will
nail down more specifics as the event approaches in time.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1253 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Patchy fog with occasional dense fog will be possible over the next
couple hours. The only terminal with a forecast for IFR/LIFR
conditions is MCI, which was prevailing VLIFR at the time of
issuance. The general theme through the early morning will be
temporary flight rules ranging from VFR to VLIFR. Based on guidance
as well as RAP forecast soundings and SREF probs, expect the time
period after 09z to become more prevailing VFR through the rest of
the forecast period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 340 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.

Carney


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2016

Round 2 will unfold on Wednesday with precipitation initially
focused in the warm sector across southeast MO and southern IL, and
then shifting northward during the afternoon and evening to become
focused along and north of the southeastward sinking cold front. A
backing, strengthening, and broadening southerly LLJ will result
in an elongated region of deep moisture convergence within the
frontal corridor. Combined with good frontogenetical forcing,
divergence aloft in the ULJ entrance region, low-amplitude
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft, we should see an
elongated region of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms spanning
the frontal zone with both high rates and persistence-training
leading to heavy rain. This time period encompasses the highest
concern for flash flooding. The front will shift southeastward
later on Wednesday night, moving out of the CWA and into the
bootheel by midday Thursday. The southward progression should end
the heavy rain threat and result in lingering lighter stratiform
rainfall. Thursday night and into Friday may be largely dry before
the impacts of the lifting northern Mexico Upper Low come into
play late Friday night into the weekend. Lots of uncertainty still
with the timing, location and strength of this ejecting system.
Precipitation however this weekend looks more showery and light-
moderate in terms of rainfall amounts possible.

Warming temperatures and largely dry weather is expected Monday
into Tuesday.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2016

Cigs all over the place, will remain pessimistic with mvfr cigs
lowering to ifr towards daybreak. Next round of rain to begin to
move into taf sites after 16z Wednesday and persist through rest
of forecast period. As for winds, to remain from the south, then
veer to the southwest, then to the north after boundary moves
through.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cigs all over the place, will have cigs lowering to ifr after 09z,
then lift back to mvfr by 12z Wednesday. Next round of rain to
begin to move into metro area by 16z Wednesday and persist
through rest of forecast period. As for winds, to remain from the
south, then veer to the southwest by 12z Wednesday, then to the
north after boundary moves through by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     71  52  62  44 /  90  90  60  20
Quincy          62  46  59  41 /  60  70  20  10
Columbia        65  48  61  44 /  70  60  30  10
Jefferson City  67  49  61  44 /  80  70  40  20
Salem           67  58  64  46 /  90 100  90  40
Farmington      66  54  62  46 /  90 100  90  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Callaway MO-Cole
     MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
     Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

 1255 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

There were only minor changes made to the ongoing forecast through
the period. The first of several opportunities for rain is currently
moving into the CWA associated an ejecting shortwave trough running
out ahead of a deeper trough centered over northwestern Mexico. The
area of rain with embedded thunderstorms should continue to
overspread the CWA from the south and linger through the evening
before ending generally west to east overnight tonight. None of the
storms are expected to become severe given meager instability and
deep layer shear.

For the rest of the periods we should see on again, off again
precip chances as the parent trough slowly translates east northeast
over the week with several associated weaker waves running out ahead
of it. We should remain unsettled into the weekend before the system
finally moves east. The upshot to the pattern is we will remain well
above normal for high and low temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1253 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Patchy fog with occasional dense fog will be possible over the next
couple hours. The only terminal with a forecast for IFR/LIFR
conditions is MCI, which was prevailing VLIFR at the time of
issuance. The general theme through the early morning will be
temporary flight rules ranging from VFR to VLIFR. Based on guidance
as well as RAP forecast soundings and SREF probs, expect the time
period after 09z to become more prevailing VFR through the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG WAVE TO THE EAST
OVER EAST TEXAS AS SEEN IN WV AND RADAR RETURNS. WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES DUE TO STUBBORN STRATUS TODAY AND WAA AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOMORROW.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SLOW TO ERODE STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED MAX TEMPS
TODAY. SREF MORE OPTIMISTIC IN BREAKING UP THE STRATUS BY 00Z
WHILE THE NAM AND RAP CLEAR IT OUT TONIGHT. WITH 850HPA FLOW
TURNING WESTERLY IN THE PANHANDLE...THINKING CLEARING WILL OCCUR
SOONER THERE AND SLOWLY WORK EAST. DEPENDING HOW LONG THE STRATUS
HANGS ON OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB...MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO COOL.
FARTHER SOUTH...DENSE CIRRUS FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPS FROM FRONTIER TO
WHEELER COUNTIES IN CASE LOWS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...TRENDED LOWS
DOWN A DEGREE OR SO... BUT THEY ARE STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC/850HPA TROUGH MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND MAIN 500HPA WAVE ARRIVING LATER. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT 850HPA WILL AID IN WAA...INCREASING TEMPS FROM ABOUT 5C
AT 12Z TO NEAR 10C AT 00Z. TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD MAV AND ECM
GUIDANCE...WHICH GENERALLY INCREASED PREVIOUS FCST 1-2 DEGREES.
NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 750HPA AREA WIDE.
SOUNDINGS ALSO PICK UP A QUASI INVERTED V SIGNAL AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FGEN FORCING INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. APPRECIABLE
LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO EXISTS WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES. CONTINUED SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WEST OF HWY 83
AFTER 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG LIFT AND MARGINAL CAPE.
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HIGH BASED. ALSO...0-6KM SHEAR IS VERY
HIGH...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP FALLING
APART QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...PHASING
WITH UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME INSTABILITY
AND CAPE WITH 7K FT CEILINGS AND LIFT FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEAK LLJ INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
PUSHES EAST AND THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 11C TO 12C. 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW INITIATES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW
RHS AND WINDS MAY BE CAUSE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TROUGH
BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AS UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES
UNDER THE RIDGE. PACIFIC AIR AND FAIRLY STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. KVTN
BRIEFLY HAD A RESTRICTED VISIBILITY EARLY...HOWEVER IT HAS SINCE
LIFTED. THIS COULD BE A REOCCURRING THEME OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME
WIDESPREAD LOWERING VISBY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ELSEWHERE SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE OF
CONCERN FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...POWER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 1151 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MAINTAINS A FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

APPROACHING MIDNIGHT...IT IS DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ALOFT HAVE
INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...AND THESE HAVE MIXED DOWN IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OFF THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 60 WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DOWNSLOPING WILL DIMINISH HERE LATER TONIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW...BUT SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO THE ROCHESTER AND
WATERTOWN WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THESE
LOCATIONS TOO. BEFORE THIS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AT
WATERTOWN WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LLJ MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS A SOLID 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST PLACES.

THE EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS RUNNING AROUND +9C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES...AS WELL AS NEAR THE PA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS...PARTICULARLY AT BUFFALO WHERE THE RECORD IS A
COMPARATIVELY SOFT 65 DEGREES...HOWEVER THEY MAY BE HELD JUST SHY DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST BY ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ALSO...A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE GUSTING
TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO PARTIAL MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD ARE NECESSARY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKING TO BE
A RATHER WET ONE. READ ON FOR THE DETAILS...

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD...BUT WE CAN BE
THANKFUL THAT THIS WILL NOT INCLUDE THE TYPICAL MARCH EXTREME
WEATHER SCENARIOS THAT RANGE FROM HEAVY SNOW/MIXED WINTRY SLOP TO
EARLY SEASON CONVECTION. A LARGE REASON FOR THIS WILL BE A LOW
AMPLITUDE NORTHERN BRANCH TO A SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL FLOOD THE
COUNTRY WITH PACIFIC BASED AIR. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION...THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS STACKED LOW OVER OLD
MEXICO AND TEXAS.

THIS ONCE IN A GENERATION (30 YR RETURN INTERVIEW) UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STACKED LOW OVER TEXAS...WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR SPRINGLIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT
WILL ALSO DIRECT A PLUME OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.5" (+4 STD) WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MID WEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE NOTEWORTHY STACKED LOW TO PRODUCE SOME SOAKING
RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO
TO THE UPPER MID WEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTH FROM THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE
A 50KT H85 JET WILL TRANSPORT A WEALTH OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR OUR
REGION AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS ONLY
SETTLING TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 50 FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LOWS WILL
BE CLOSER TO 40. THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS MIXING WITH THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

ON THURSDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE DIRECTLY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PACKAGES HAVE BEEN
FLIP FLOPPING THOUGH IN REGARDS TO WHETHER SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES WILL
PROGRESS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY OR IF ONE ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH. IN EITHER CASE...THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL ENHANCE THE
DEEP LIFT ALREADY BEING PROVIDED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE RR QUAD OF
A SCREAMING 170KT H25 OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...AND STRONG H925-70
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 1.5". THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SWATH OF HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF STEADY RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
IT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MOST OF WRN NY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST SFC WAVE...THE FRONT WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE AND NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE PROCESS...ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. 36 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS ENDED EVENT WILL RANGE
FROM ROUGHLY A HALF INCH NEAR THE PA BORDER TO MORE THAN 1.25" FOR
SITES NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS AMOUNT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THE PCPN.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A 24 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE REGION
CAN DRY OUT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE FAIR WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING US A NOTABLE...BUT VERY TEMPORARY COOL DOWN
AS TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 45 AND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A PROGRESSIVE...PACIFIC BASED FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. THE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UNUSUALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER TEXAS WILL OPEN UP AND EVENTUALLY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SYSTEM AND SEVERAL PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE COMMON AS WE MAKE OUR WAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THE
PACIFIC FLOW WITH A TENDENCY TOWARDS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VWP CONFIRM WINDS ALOFT
OF 40-45 KTS AT AROUND 2K FT OVER BUF WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST AND
RESULT IN LLWS SINCE THEY WILL NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE AT TAF
LOCATIONS. FOG MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT ART UNTIL AROUND 7Z WHEN
THE LLJ MOVES IN AND MIXES OUT THE MOISTURE.

THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX DOWN BY
LATE MORNING...LEADING TO SW GUSTS TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL MIX
WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWERING CIGS EAST OF THE LAKES (AND AT BUF/ART IN PARTICULAR)...BUT
ONCE WINDS DROP OFF THEN AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM.
MEANWHILE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION TO STEADY RAIN LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN CIGS AND FOG WHICH COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AS
WARMER AIR EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A REGION OF LOW PRESSURE
BEARS DOWN UPON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RELATIVELY
COOL LAKE WATERS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP WINDS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
BUFFALO HARBOR AND NIAGARA RIVER.

MODEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH/APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/WCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 321 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM/NOW THROUGH 12Z...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
STRATUS DOMINATES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING...WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOUTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING FOG FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SHORTWAVE
WAS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
SEEN IN NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR BOTH AREAS.

OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
REBOUNDING OR RISING HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS IN THE NORTH AND
AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY VERY MILD AND DRY.
A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...SATURDAY...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE SUPERBLEND INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
70 SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
DICKINSON. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO
MIXED DOWN THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME BUT THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AND THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND FORMS A CLOSED H500
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD BRING A MIX IF RAIN AND SNOW BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KMOT UNTIL 15Z. EXPECTING SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP NEAR KBIS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 15Z. KJMS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR UNTIL
15Z...WITH KISN/KDIK REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1139 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. A BAND OF RAIN NOW OVER GLASGOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP IS FORECAST TO SHRIVEL AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE BEST FORCING OVERNIGHT SHIFTS FROM
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP OUR FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MAKE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MINIMAL
AREAL COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL.

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR
MAINTAINS THESE CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AS THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE 23-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 00 UTC NAM NEST CONTINUE TO DEPICT FOG
WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY FORECASTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE POTENTIAL AREA
OF FOG IS NOTED IN THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MENTION OF
FOG EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS BETWEEN US HIGHWAY 85 AND ND HIGHWAY
3.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE 19-22 UTC RAP...HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS AND THE
18 UTC NAM NEST ALL SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THEIR VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FAVORED AREAS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SATURATE
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT FAR NORTHWEST...AND STRATUS/FOG CHANCES
SOUTHEAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOURIS RIVER VALLEY. HERE WE SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGHS. THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL
LIKELY LAG FORECAST HIGHS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONTANA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER. MOST
GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP HERE. THE TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL MONITOR BUT
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...HAZARDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BRUSHING
THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST. ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING OVER
THIS AREA. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN JRV TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WE DRY OUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
EAST TO MID 50S WEST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE
25 TO 3O PERCENT RANGE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. FLOW
ALOFT AROUND 850 MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS. HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND BUMPED WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...OVER CURRENT GUIDANCE. THIS PRODUCES SOME 15
TO 20 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
FIRE WEATHER.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND BUMPED UP
WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE. FRIDAY SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA
SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER BUT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. COULD BE SOME GULF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL SEE HOW SOON IT ARRIVES. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KJMS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AT
KMOT/KBIS/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 155 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39 UNTIL 4 AM CST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO TRANSITION FROM THE STRONGER DISCRETE
CELLS TO BROADER AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL EXPECT
SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO REDUCE VSBYS TO LESS THAN 1
MILE...BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING AREA OF COVERAGE TO SHOW LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER. THUS WILL RUN SEVERAL
HOURS OF MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND KEEP PREVAILING CONDITIONS AS
MVFR ALONG WITH CIGS. AS THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHIFTS
GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDER ALONG
I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z. ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER MAY
THREATEN DRT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH COVERAGE TOO LOW TO
MENTION. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SLOWLY SOUTH OF TX
WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AND NORTHERLY
BREEZES SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CIG HEIGHTS...BUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE
RAINS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRY LINE POSITIONED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. STRONGEST CELLS CONTINUE TO BE FED BY
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
FLOW. THERE STILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND THE RAP IS INDICATING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ DEG C/KM IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND EXTREME LIGHTNING.
TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW BUT AS THESE CELLS PUSH SLOWLY
FARTHER EAST...THEY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A MORE FAVORABLE LCL
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL MEANS THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REGARDING FLOOD POTENTIAL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG
A LINE FROM CENTRAL DIMMITT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH REAL COUNTY.
WHILE THE PLATEAU COUNTIES SHOULD AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL NOW THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONGOING SOUTH OF DIMMITT AND ZAVALA
INDICATES AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH RAIN RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE CELLS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR AND PUSH EAST
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME LIKELY
DELAYING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE. AS SUCH...NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WATCH ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL NEED TO RE-
EVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS AS THIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  69  55  70  53 /  50  70  60  60  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  69  53  70  50 /  50  70  60  60  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  70  54  70  50 /  50  70  60  60  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  66  52  66  49 /  50  70  60  60  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  68  51  68  48 /  40  70  70  50  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  67  54  68  51 /  50  70  60  60  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  70  52  69  46 /  40  70  70  60  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  69  54  70  51 /  50  70  60  60  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  71  55  71  53 /  70  60  40  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  69  54  69  51 /  50  70  70  60  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  71  54  70  50 /  50  70  70  60  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1159 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO TRANSITION FROM THE STRONGER DISCRETE
CELLS TO BROADER AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL EXPECT
SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO REDUCE VSBYS TO LESS THAN 1
MILE...BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING AREA OF COVERAGE TO SHOW LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER. THUS WILL RUN SEVERAL
HOURS OF MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND KEEP PREVAILING CONDITIONS AS
MVFR ALONG WITH CIGS. AS THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS SHIFTS
GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDER ALONG
I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z. ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER MAY
THREATEN DRT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH COVERAGE TOO LOW TO
MENTION. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SLOWLY SOUTH OF TX
WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AND NORTHERLY
BREEZES SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CIG HEIGHTS...BUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE
RAINS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRY LINE POSITIONED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. STRONGEST CELLS CONTINUE TO BE FED BY
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
FLOW. THERE STILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND THE RAP IS INDICATING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ DEG C/KM IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND EXTREME LIGHTNING.
TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW BUT AS THESE CELLS PUSH SLOWLY
FARTHER EAST...THEY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A MORE FAVORABLE LCL
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL MEANS THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REGARDING FLOOD POTENTIAL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG
A LINE FROM CENTRAL DIMMITT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH REAL COUNTY.
WHILE THE PLATEAU COUNTIES SHOULD AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL NOW THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONGOING SOUTH OF DIMMITT AND ZAVALA
INDICATES AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH RAIN RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE CELLS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR AND PUSH EAST
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR
HOWEVER VAD WIND PROFILES MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME LIKELY
DELAYING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE. AS SUCH...NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WATCH ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL NEED TO RE-
EVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS AS THIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  76  57  69  55 / 100  70  50  60  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  76  57  69  53 / 100  70  50  60  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  78  57  70  54 / 100  60  50  60  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  73  55  66  52 / 100  60  40  60  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           58  75  54  68  51 /  80  40  40  60  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  74  57  67  54 / 100  70  50  60  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  77  55  70  52 / 100  40  30  60  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  77  57  69  54 / 100  70  50  60  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  77  59  71  55 / 100  80  70  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  77  58  69  54 / 100  50  40  60  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  79  58  71  54 / 100  50  40  50  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 630 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
PERIODIC BKN STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 4KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 6-11
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING...GUSTING
15 TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE LATER MORNING/AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH ONE STREAM HEADED NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND A MORE DOMINANT FLOW DIVING SOUTHWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA INTO AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL NOT MAKE MUCH ZONAL OR MERIDIONAL PROGRESS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RESULT (ALREADY IS) IN AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE NOW FULLY FORMED
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL ACT
AS A WALL AGAINST THE TROUGH/LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
PROTECT OUR REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME FROM THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER OCCURRING TO OUR WEST/NW.

00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RIDGE AND
INVERSION ONLY BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED AND SEMI-
STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...WITH RIDGING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE CENTER WILL PROVIDE A TIGHT GRADIENT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF BKN STATOCU (BASED ABOVE 4KFT) MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY WARM...RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE AS OF 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A GENERALLY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNDER THE CONTROL OF STACKED RIDGING. DRY
MID-LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR
ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY. IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS FOR EARLY/MID MARCH AND
EXCELLENT DIURNAL MIXING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MIDDLE 80S TODAY...AND PERHAPS AN EXTRA
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY.

EVEN THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET FAIRLY WARM.
STRONG SYNOPTIC FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MAKE SEA-BREEZE
FORMATION AND/OR INLAND PENETRATION DIFFICULT. BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING THE BOUNDARY MAKE ANY PROGRESS INLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE UP TOWARD CITRUS/LEVY COUNTY IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE RIDGE AXIS.

HAVE A GREAT MID-WEEK PERIOD. ENJOY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN THE BATTLE
OVER OUR WEATHER FOR A COUPLE DAYS FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REENTER THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MORE
ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THE FORECAST WARM AND DRY. THIS RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SAT AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
STARTS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX...WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW AND A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF. THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUN THEN THE GREAT LAKES MON...DAMPENING OUT IT DOES...DRAGGING
THE SURFACE LOW WITH IT AND SWEEPING THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF. IN
THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THEN EAST TO THE KY/TN AREA.. KEEPING BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. BY TUE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST
INTO THE GULF WITH AN AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH ONLY MINOR
TIMING AND LOCATIONS ISSUES ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CONUS BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE. HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WITH ONLY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST ODDS WILL BE SUN
WHEN THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. EXPECT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MON AND MON EVENING THEN DRY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
SLIGHTLY THEY WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT ONLY MODEST SPEEDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
MAY AT TIMES APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 20NM DURING THESE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. BEYOND THURSDAY THE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING OUR LOCAL WEATHER DRY...WARM...AND BREEZY.
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ON SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF
THE ATLANTIC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL VALUES OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL ALSO GENERALLY PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CRITERIA DUE TO WIND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST ZONES...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD EVENTS. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL DEAL WITH THE WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY...WITH HIGH LEVELS
OF SMOKE DISPERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  64  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  83  63  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  83  61  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  78  65  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  84  61  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  81  64  81  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 559 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A cold front will slowly drift into IL from the west today, reaching
near the Illinois river around Noon/18z, and along the I-55 corridor
by 6 pm/00z. A break in the rain is likely to start off the day, as
one wave departs to the northeast and the before the next shortwave
begins to affect the area this afternoon. The presence of the cold
front alone could allow for spotty showers to develop before the big
northward push of rain later this afternoon. The RAP shows a line of
light showers near the front along the Illinois river from mid to
late morning, which the HRRR also shows for one hour at 17z/11am.
The prevailing agreement in the short term models is on rain showers
overspreading our forecast area from the south later this
afternoon. Areas south of I-70 have the best chances for rain this
afternoon, with showers most likely advancing up to the I-72
corridor by sunset. The better chances of thunder would be mainly
south of I-70 this afternoon, but instability parameters are
marginal at best today. Spotty showers could develop north of I-72
before evening, but most areas north of I-72 will see dry conditions
prevail for a majority of the day. Have limited PoPs quite a bit
this morning, with many areas dry, then ramped up PoPs to
categorical this afternoon for areas along and south of I-72. A mix
of chance and slight chance PoPs were included north of I-72.
Rainfall amounts today should generally remain a quarter inch or
less, with heavier rains expected beyond today.

Warm temps are expected again today, despite little to no sunshine.
Highs will reach the low 60s near Galesburg, with mid to upper 60s
elsewhere. Wind directions and speeds will be tied to the timing and
advancement of the cold front. South winds will prevail ahead of the
cold front in the eastern half of Illinois. Along the front, winds
will become light and variable, with northwest winds behind the
front.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Have had to make some significant edits to the forecast across the
northwest part of the CWA in regards to this heavy rain event.
Evening model guidance has shifted the heavy rain focus down toward
the I-70 corridor, and the front will be down in that general
vicinity by evening. GFS suggests the area near Galesburg could be
done with the rain chances as early as this afternoon, while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM bring some light rain that far north
this evening. While I have kept likely PoP`s going across the
Illinois River valley, I reduced them to only slight chances
Thursday and went dry Thursday night/Friday in that area.

Further southeast, will be hoisting a flash flood watch for the
areas along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon. The frontal boundary will loiter in that area overnight,
as low pressure rides northeast along the front. Greatest moisture
advection focusing on the Ohio Valley northward to about I-70, with
precipitable water values up to about 1.5 inches tonight. Tonight
and early Thursday would be the primary concern for the heaviest
rain, as the low moves through. Fly in the ointment may be the
extensive convection currently across east Texas and far southern
Arkansas, potentially interrupting some of the moisture feed into
our area. Went with near 100% PoP`s for that area tonight and
Thursday, before phasing them out during the evening.

Most of the models keep Friday and Friday evening dry, with high
pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes. Main moisture surge
will be late Friday evening and overnight, as the upper low slowly
tracks northeast out of Texas and shears out. Right now, Saturday
night and Sunday look to have the highest weekend PoP`s, as the
remnant wave moves through the area.

Temperatures to remain quite mild during the period, with the only
real cooler surge associated with the passing high pressure Thursday
night and Friday. Associated east/northeast flow may dip lows across
the far northern CWA into the upper 30s Friday morning, but
temperatures in general remain well above normal into next week.
Upper level ridging early next week will bring 850 mb temperatures
around 15C by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A dry slot in the mid levels has pushed the majority of the rain
northeast of the TAF sites. A few showers are starting to develop
just east of CMI at 12z, so a VCSH was included there through 15z.
Otherwise dry conditions should prevail until mid-afternoon at the
terminal sites, when a cold front reaches near the I-55 corridor.
Rain will become likely at all TAF sites this evening, as a low
level jet intensifies across IL, and low pressure moves from SW to
NE across the area along the cold front. A few thunderstorms will
be possible, but overall instability appears to be relatively
weak, so have not included thunder in this TAF issuance.

IFR clouds have moved into PIA ahead of the cold front, with VFR
clouds farther east over the other TAF sites. Forecast soundings
show MVFR clouds should develop this morning, but dry air aloft
could create some breaks in the low clouds before rain starts to
spread north into our forecast area.

Winds will be varying over the next 24 hours, with south to
southwest winds around 10-15 kt this morning. Then winds will
shift to the west as the cold front arrives, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front this afternoon for PIA and BMI, and
eventually CMI this evening. The front will stall across the
southern terminals of SPI and DEC, where winds will become light
and variable.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from noon CST today through Thursday afternoon
for ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS A BAND OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST
TO THE TWO HARBORS/TWIN PORTS AREA. WHILE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BEGIN...THINK A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KEPT JUST RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/FZRA
INSTEAD OF ALSO INCLUDING DRIZZLE WORDING SINCE FORCING APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN...BUT WILL ADD/REPLACE WITH DRIZZLE
WORDING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRECIP DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED AN AREA OF FOG IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THIS
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.

00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH A FEW MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE... EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVEN VERY
BRIEF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
HIB/INL/BRD... BUT VIS/CIGS WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AGAIN TONIGHT DUE
TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  27  44  30 /  50  40   0   0
INL  36  21  46  30 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  40  27  50  31 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  41  28  47  29 /  30  30   0   0
ASX  38  27  44  28 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.

00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH A FEW MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE... EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVEN VERY
BRIEF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
HIB/INL/BRD... BUT VIS/CIGS WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AGAIN TONIGHT DUE
TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  27  44  30 /  50  10   0   0
INL  36  21  46  30 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  40  27  50  31 /  50   0   0   0
HYR  41  28  47  29 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  38  27  44  28 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 550 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

More rain expected tonight as the models depict strong upper
level divergence over much of the area ahead of the approaching
northern stream upper level trough and in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
Most of the models have the highest QPF shifted a little further
southeast than previous model runs with the low level jet axis
extending across the western portions of TN and KY tonight along
with the best low level moisture, and the surface front across
southeast MO and southern IL. The heaviest rainfall totals for
today through Thursday morning will be 2 to 3 inches across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL with locally higher amounts
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through Thursday
morning across parts of central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
The best potential for heavy rain should be south and east of STL.
Most of the rain should shift south of the forecast area Thursday
night and Friday as the front shifts south of the region and a
surface ridge moves eastward through the Great Lakes area. The
ECMWF model appears to have too much rain north of the front in
the southern portion of our forecast area, and prefer the drier
solutions of the NAM and GFS. Cooler temperatures can be expected
for Thursday night, albeit still above normal. Rain will spread
back northward through our forecast area Friday night and Saturday
as the slow moving upper level low moves into the southern Plains
and a modest southerly low level jet brings low level moisture
back northward into our area Friday night. A warm front will also
be moving northward through our area on Saturday. The threat for
rain may continue into Sunday night until the upper level low
finally opens up and lifts east of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are moving thorugh central
and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Remainder
of the area is MVFR and VFR with some ceilings around 2500 ft and
above. Expect flight conditions to improve this morning after
sunrise, but showers and a few thunderstorms with heavy rain
possible will develop along and south of I-70 late this afternoon
and into the evening. MVFR and IFR flight conditions will
accompany the rain.

Specifics for KSTL:

Think VFR conditions will prevail this morning...but there`s a
chance the 2500-3000 ft ceilings southeast of the terminal will
move up over the terminal at some point before 15-16Z. Showers and
a few thunderstorms will overspread the terminal this afternoon.
Periods of rain with MVFR and possible IFR will continue until
Thursday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Callaway MO-Cole
     MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
     Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 440 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

More rain expected tonight as the models depict strong upper
level divergence over much of the area ahead of the approaching
northern stream upper level trough and in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
Most of the models have the highest QPF shifted a little further
southeast than previous model runs with the low level jet axis
extending across the western portions of TN and KY tonight along
with the best low level moisture, and the surface front across
southeast MO and southern IL. The heaviest rainfall totals for
today through Thursday morning will be 2 to 3 inches across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL with locally higher amounts
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through Thursday
morning across parts of central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
The best potential for heavy rain should be south and east of STL.
Most of the rain should shift south of the forecast area Thursday
night and Friday as the front shifts south of the region and a
surface ridge moves eastward through the Great Lakes area. The
ECMWF model appears to have too much rain north of the front in
the southern portion of our forecast area, and prefer the drier
solutions of the NAM and GFS. Cooler temperatures can be expected
for Thursday night, albeit still above normal. Rain will spread
back northward through our forecast area Friday night and Saturday
as the slow moving upper level low moves into the southern Plains
and a modest southerly low level jet brings low level moisture
back northward into our area Friday night. A warm front will also
be moving northward through our area on Saturday. The threat for
rain may continue into Sunday night until the upper level low
finally opens up and lifts east of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2016

Cigs all over the place, will remain pessimistic with mvfr cigs
lowering to ifr towards daybreak. Next round of rain to begin to
move into taf sites after 16z Wednesday and persist through rest
of forecast period. As for winds, to remain from the south, then
veer to the southwest, then to the north after boundary moves
through.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cigs all over the place, will have cigs lowering to ifr after 09z,
then lift back to mvfr by 12z Wednesday. Next round of rain to
begin to move into metro area by 16z Wednesday and persist
through rest of forecast period. As for winds, to remain from the
south, then veer to the southwest by 12z Wednesday, then to the
north after boundary moves through by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     71  52  62  44 /  90  90  60  20
Quincy          62  46  59  41 /  60  70  20  10
Columbia        65  48  61  44 /  70  60  30  10
Jefferson City  67  49  61  44 /  80  70  40  20
Salem           67  58  64  46 /  90 100  90  40
Farmington      66  54  62  46 /  90 100  90  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Callaway MO-Cole
     MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
     Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1003 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA COULD LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED NICELY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE DENSE FOG NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. THE FOG HAS LIFTED IN
STANLEY. ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DROPPED TO PATCHY FOG
FROM AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS RESULTED IN COLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING CLOSE TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM/NOW THROUGH 12Z...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
STRATUS DOMINATES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING...WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOUTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING FOG FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SHORTWAVE
WAS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
SEEN IN NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR BOTH AREAS.

OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
REBOUNDING OR RISING HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS IN THE NORTH AND
AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY VERY MILD AND DRY.
A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...SATURDAY...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE SUPERBLEND INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
70 SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
DICKINSON. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO
MIXED DOWN THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME BUT THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AND THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND FORMS A CLOSED H500
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD BRING A MIX IF RAIN AND SNOW BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

VLIFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KMOT UNTIL 15Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CIGS VERY CLOSE TO KBIS...AND FOR NOW
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE 12Z ISSUANCE. IFR/MVFR CIGS AT
KJMS UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KISN/KDIK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 640 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE DENSE FOG NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. THE FOG HAS LIFTED IN
STANLEY. ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DROPPED TO PATCHY FOG
FROM AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS REULTED IN COLD
MINIMUM TEMPERTAURES THIS MORNING CLOSE TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM/NOW THROUGH 12Z...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
STRATUS DOMINATES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING...WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOUTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING FOG FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SHORTWAVE
WAS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
SEEN IN NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR BOTH AREAS.

OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
REBOUNDING OR RISING HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS IN THE NORTH AND
AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY VERY MILD AND DRY.
A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...SATURDAY...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE SUPERBLEND INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
70 SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
DICKINSON. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO
MIXED DOWN THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME BUT THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AND THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND FORMS A CLOSED H500
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD BRING A MIX IF RAIN AND SNOW BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

VLIFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KMOT UNTIL 15Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CIGS VERY CLOSE TO KBIS...AND FOR NOW
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE 12Z ISSUANCE. IFR/MVFR CIGS AT
KJMS UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KISN/KDIK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 527 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD TO
TX. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CAL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...THE ELEVATED WIND FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. THUS...ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED. HENCE...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CAL COAST AND ACT TO KICK OUT THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER TX. AT THAT TIME...POPS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE
WITH LIKELY COVERAGE ACROSS A BROAD AREA. INSTABILITY
LEVELS...THOUGH WEAK...WILL BE IN PLAY SO COULD SEE A FEW TSTMS THU
AND THU NT. OTW...AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THROUGH FRIDAY WE COULD
SEE 2 INCHES FAR NORTHWEST...RANGING DOWN TO A QUARTER INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST. AS FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVE THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS. IT WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER THU
NT AND FRI AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

IN THE EXT FCST...AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. AS IT PULLS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL VACATE THE AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE MID STATE AND BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS AS WELL. NO FAVORABLE ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTM SYNOPTIC SETUP IS INDICATED. BUT...AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXT PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
TUES.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...CONTINUED MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AFTER THE WARM FROPA FRI NT. LOOK FOR HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...LOWS IN THE 50S. THATS A GOOD 15
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM LARGER UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
EASTERN AR AND WESTERN TN. HRRR HAS BEEN BULLISH WITH PUSHING
PRECIP INTO CKV DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BUT OTHER MODELS
ARE KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST OF THE TN RIVER. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. MORE MODELS ARE ON BOARD
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR CKV THEREFORE
MENTIONED VCSH. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD AND WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY BUT STILL IN THE 10
KT RANGE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................XXI



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 950 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO
BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE AROUND GALVESTON BAY BUT WAS STILL
EVIDENT ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED
PW/S OF 1.6 AT BOTH KCRP AND KLCH...WHILE THE SREF HAD 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SPLITTING JET WAS EVIDENT AT
200 AND 300 MB AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WAS SOUTH TO NORTH. GIVEN
THE PATTERN AND AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.

BOTH THE NAM12 AND THE RAP13 SLOWLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
AND BOTH MODELS AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS UPDATE RAISED POPS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND ADDED
ISOLATED SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION.
CORRECTION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID
UNTIL 12 NOON FOR BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND
REGION AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.

40

MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

39/40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  61  72  58  73 /  80  90  70  40  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  76  60  75 /  90  90  50  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  64  72  63  72 / 100  90  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 817 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SVR WATCH NUMBER 40 UNTIL NOON.
ALSO...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS BEE...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES. UPPER JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST...THE LATTER DOING SO BY NOON (HENCE THE WATCH TIL NOON).
UPDATES ARE OUT. SCA IS ON-GOING AND LOOKS OK FOR NOW (WILL LOOK
AT IT A BIT MORE BUT HAVE BIGGER FISH TO FRY FOR NOW).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SHRA REMARKS FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS YET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.

MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  61  74  59  73  /  90  70  50  40  30
VICTORIA          75  62  74  55  73  /  90  80  50  40  40
LAREDO            77  57  73  55  71  /  50  40  70  40  30
ALICE             79  60  75  55  73  /  70  60  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          75  63  71  62  71  /  90  80  40  30  30
COTULLA           76  58  70  54  71  /  60  40  70  50  40
KINGSVILLE        79  60  76  56  74  /  80  60  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  74  62  72  /  90  70  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 806 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION.
CORRECTION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID
UNTIL 12 NOON FOR BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND
REGION AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.

40

MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

39/40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  61  72  58  73 /  80  90  70  40  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  76  60  75 /  90  90  50  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  64  72  63  72 / 100  90  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 804 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID UNTIL 12 NOON FOR
BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND WHARTON COUNTIES.
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
MAIN HAZARDS ARE TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.

40

MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

39/40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  61  72  58  73 /  80  90  70  40  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  76  60  75 /  90  90  50  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  64  72  63  72 / 100  90  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDRESTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO WITH
VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.

40

MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

39/40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  61  72  58  73 /  80  90  70  40  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  76  60  75 /  90  90  50  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  64  72  63  72 / 100  90  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SHRA REMARKS FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.

MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  61  74  59  73  /  70  70  50  40  30
VICTORIA          76  62  74  55  73  /  90  80  50  40  40
LAREDO            78  57  73  55  71  /  50  40  70  40  30
ALICE             80  60  75  55  73  /  70  60  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          76  63  71  62  71  /  80  80  40  30  30
COTULLA           77  58  70  54  71  /  60  40  70  50  40
KINGSVILLE        80  60  76  56  74  /  70  60  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       75  64  74  62  72  /  80  70  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  61  74  59  73  /  70  70  50  40  30
VICTORIA          76  62  74  55  73  /  90  80  50  40  40
LAREDO            78  57  73  55  71  /  50  40  70  40  30
ALICE             80  60  75  55  73  /  70  60  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          76  63  71  62  71  /  80  80  40  30  30
COTULLA           77  58  70  54  71  /  60  40  70  50  40
KINGSVILLE        80  60  76  56  74  /  70  60  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       75  64  74  62  72  /  80  70  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 245 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD RESULTING IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH AS RESULTED IN DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
REMAIN SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED AND LIMIT THE FOG THREAT BUT WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY ALSO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE
STEADY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVENT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
BROUGHT THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
STILL REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...ALLOWING WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE MAJORITY OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY TO
REFLECT MODEL TRENDS. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR WITH PWATS OF AROUND AN INCH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

A SOUTH TO WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AND
PERSIST DURING THE 08Z-16Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...EVIDENT FROM THE
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED.  DIURNALLY INDUCED
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ALSO POSSIBLE RIDING UP AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH
AT TIMES WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

MOS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RESTRICTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 08Z BUT ARE CONFLICTED ON
WHETHER IT WILL BE FOG AND/OR STRATUS.  BUFKIT TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE STRATUS THAN
FOG BY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED.  LEANED TOWARDS
THE MET GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING IN MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 08Z
WHILE NOT GOING AS STRONG ON THE FOG VSBYS LIKE THE LAMP WOULD
SUGGEST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND VSBYS LOWER THAN 1 MILE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING TAKING PLACE BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF TIME UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER THE
REGION DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.  WINDS
WILL AGAIN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 123 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD RESULTING IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH AS RESULTED IN DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
REMAIN SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED AND LIMIT THE FOG THREAT BUT WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY ALSO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE
STEADY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DEPICT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS KEEP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT VERIFICATION. FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GREATER UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SHOWN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER WITH
THE TIMING COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SOUTH
TO WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AND
PERSIST DURING THE 08Z-16Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...EVIDENT FROM THE
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED.  DIURNALLY INDUCED
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ALSO POSSIBLE RIDING UP AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH
AT TIMES WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

MOS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RESTRICTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 08Z BUT ARE CONFLICTED ON
WHETHER IT WILL BE FOG AND/OR STRATUS.  BUFKIT TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE STRATUS THAN
FOG BY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED.  LEANED TOWARDS
THE MET GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING IN MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 08Z
WHILE NOT GOING AS STRONG ON THE FOG VSBYS LIKE THE LAMP WOULD
SUGGEST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND VSBYS LOWER THAN 1 MILE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING TAKING PLACE BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF TIME UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER THE
REGION DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.  WINDS
WILL AGAIN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED CHANCES OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 311 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A cold front southeast of the IL river and approaching I-55 at mid
afternoon will reach near I-72 by sunset and pass southeast of I-70
overnight, getting southeast of Lawrence county late tonight. 1008
mb surface low pressure along the northern TX/LA border to lift ne
along the front near southern tip of IL Thu morning. At mid
afternoon radar mosaic shows rain showers mainly confined to areas
south of I-70 with thunderstorms still south of IL. RAP and HRRR
models spread rain showers ne across central IL during this evening
and continue overnight, with most of the rain staying southeast of
Knox and Stark counties in our far northwest CWA. Instability
parameters limits isolated thunderstorms chances south of I-70.
Models have continued to trend further southeast with heavier qpf
tonight and half to 1 inch along and southeast of a Taylorville to
Decatur to Champaign line with the heavier amounts south of I-70,
with half to three quarter inches of rain in southeast IL Thu. So
will continue the flash flood watch along and south of I-70 thru
Thu. Lows tonight to range from the mid 40s nw of the IL river to
the upper 50s in southeast IL, which stays on the mild side of the
front until late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Models in good agreement that the rain will be tapering off by
Thursday afternoon in southeast IL. Still looks like a prolonged
period of rain through the weekend, but again, rainfall amounts look
to be on the lower side.

By Thursday morning the cold front is expected to be just north of
the Ohio Valley, with a short wave trough axis in the eastern
Plains. The shortwave will rapidly reach central IL by Thursday
evening, resulting in only lingering showers in southeast IL. High
pressure across the Great Lakes on Friday will push the front south
of the TN Valley and produce plenty of sun and continued mild
temperatures.

An upper low moving out of Texas on Saturday will push the frontal
boundary back north resulting in overrunning rainfall spreading into
central and southeast IL. Initially could see some higher rainfall
totals as low level moisture and isentropic lift is maximized early
Saturday. However, after we get into the warm sector later in the
day Saturday through Sunday the rain will be more showery with
spotty QPF amounts. Both the GFS and European models are similar in
shifting the upper level energy through the lower Ohio Valley by
Monday afternoon, bringing an end to the rain.

By Tuesday the medium range models diverge significantly with their
solutions, having a big impact on our forecast. The GFS is very
aggressive in deepening a mid level shortwave, which then becomes
negatively tilted and lifts through the upper Midwest by Tuesday
evening. This scenario rapidly deepens a surface low and points to a
rather potent thunderstorm episode for the Midwest. The European on
the other hand is 12-18 hours slower and not as deep with the upper
low or associated surface features. For now will side with the less
aggressive European model, and slow things down by keeping the
potential for thunderstorms out of the forecast until Wednesday-Wed
evening in central/eastern IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A cold front approaching the IL river including PIA at 18Z will
continue to slowly move southeast to near I-74 by 23-00Z. SW winds
10-15 kts and gusts of 17-22 kts ahead of this front will turn WNW
after its passage and then veer NNW tonight 4-7 kts and NNE near
10 kts Thu morning. MVFR clouds ahead of cold front could lower to
IFR 500-1k ft behind the front this afternoon and evening and then
lift back up to MVFR later tonight into THu morning with n/nw
airports of PIA and BMI going to VFR ceilings. An area of showers
south of I-70 in southern IL to spread ne across areas mainly se
of IL river during this evening and linger longest at DEC and CMI
into Thu morning.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...07




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1158 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Updated the forecast late this morning to lower the chances of
showers over the IL river valley in nw CWA and also cool highs
a few degrees nw of the IL river especially over Knox and Stark
counties where cold front has passed through as sw winds have
turned nw. Will continue the flash flood watch southeast 8
counties along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thu
afternoon where 1.5 to 2 inches of rain expected, most of this
falling tonight into Thu.

Most of the rain showers this morning have been south of I-70 in
southern IL while thunderstorms are south of IL. A cold front was
slowly pushing southeast toward the IL river late this morning and
is still nw of Peru, Peoria and Quincy airports. The front has
passed se of Sterling, Galesburg and Macomb airports.

The latest forecast models slowly move cold front southeast toward
I-72 by 00z/6 pm while low pressure near the TX/LA border moves
ne along the boundary and into the mid MS river valley by 12Z/6 am
Thu. This will spread showers back north across central and
especially southeast IL during this afternoon, with highest pops
and isolated thunderstorms south of I-72 by late afternoon. Highs
to reach the mid to upper 60s along and east of the IL river while
Galesburg struggles to reach back up to 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A cold front will slowly drift into IL from the west today, reaching
near the Illinois river around Noon/18z, and along the I-55 corridor
by 6 pm/00z. A break in the rain is likely to start off the day, as
one wave departs to the northeast and the before the next shortwave
begins to affect the area this afternoon. The presence of the cold
front alone could allow for spotty showers to develop before the big
northward push of rain later this afternoon. The RAP shows a line of
light showers near the front along the Illinois river from mid to
late morning, which the HRRR also shows for one hour at 17z/11am.
The prevailing agreement in the short term models is on rain showers
overspreading our forecast area from the south later this
afternoon. Areas south of I-70 have the best chances for rain this
afternoon, with showers most likely advancing up to the I-72
corridor by sunset. The better chances of thunder would be mainly
south of I-70 this afternoon, but instability parameters are
marginal at best today. Spotty showers could develop north of I-72
before evening, but most areas north of I-72 will see dry conditions
prevail for a majority of the day. Have limited PoPs quite a bit
this morning, with many areas dry, then ramped up PoPs to
categorical this afternoon for areas along and south of I-72. A mix
of chance and slight chance PoPs were included north of I-72.
Rainfall amounts today should generally remain a quarter inch or
less, with heavier rains expected beyond today.

Warm temps are expected again today, despite little to no sunshine.
Highs will reach the low 60s near Galesburg, with mid to upper 60s
elsewhere. Wind directions and speeds will be tied to the timing and
advancement of the cold front. South winds will prevail ahead of the
cold front in the eastern half of Illinois. Along the front, winds
will become light and variable, with northwest winds behind the
front.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Have had to make some significant edits to the forecast across the
northwest part of the CWA in regards to this heavy rain event.
Evening model guidance has shifted the heavy rain focus down toward
the I-70 corridor, and the front will be down in that general
vicinity by evening. GFS suggests the area near Galesburg could be
done with the rain chances as early as this afternoon, while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM bring some light rain that far north
this evening. While I have kept likely PoP`s going across the
Illinois River valley, I reduced them to only slight chances
Thursday and went dry Thursday night/Friday in that area.

Further southeast, will be hoisting a flash flood watch for the
areas along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon. The frontal boundary will loiter in that area overnight,
as low pressure rides northeast along the front. Greatest moisture
advection focusing on the Ohio Valley northward to about I-70, with
precipitable water values up to about 1.5 inches tonight. Tonight
and early Thursday would be the primary concern for the heaviest
rain, as the low moves through. Fly in the ointment may be the
extensive convection currently across east Texas and far southern
Arkansas, potentially interrupting some of the moisture feed into
our area. Went with near 100% PoP`s for that area tonight and
Thursday, before phasing them out during the evening.

Most of the models keep Friday and Friday evening dry, with high
pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes. Main moisture surge
will be late Friday evening and overnight, as the upper low slowly
tracks northeast out of Texas and shears out. Right now, Saturday
night and Sunday look to have the highest weekend PoP`s, as the
remnant wave moves through the area.

Temperatures to remain quite mild during the period, with the only
real cooler surge associated with the passing high pressure Thursday
night and Friday. Associated east/northeast flow may dip lows across
the far northern CWA into the upper 30s Friday morning, but
temperatures in general remain well above normal into next week.
Upper level ridging early next week will bring 850 mb temperatures
around 15C by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A cold front approaching the IL river including PIA at 18Z will
continue to slowly move southeast to near I-74 by 23-00Z. SW winds
10-15 kts and gusts of 17-22 kts ahead of this front will turn WNW
after its passage and then veer NNW tonight 4-7 kts and NNE near
10 kts Thu morning. MVFR clouds ahead of cold front could lower to
IFR 500-1k ft behind the front this afternoon and evening and then
lift back up to MVFR later tonight into THu morning with n/nw
airports of PIA and BMI going to VFR ceilings. An area of showers
south of I-70 in southern IL to spread ne across areas mainly se
of IL river during this evening and linger longest at DEC and CMI
into Thu morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1056 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Updated the forecast late this morning to lower the chances of
showers over the IL river valley in nw CWA and also cool highs
a few degrees nw of the IL river especially over Knox and Stark
counties where cold front has passed through as sw winds have
turned nw. Will continue the flash flood watch southeast 8
counties along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thu
afternoon where 1.5 to 2 inches of rain expected, most of this
falling tonight into Thu.

Most of the rain showers this morning have been south of I-70 in
southern IL while thunderstorms are south of IL. A cold front was
slowly pushing southeast toward the IL river late this morning and
is still nw of Peru, Peoria and Quincy airports. The front has
passed se of Sterling, Galesburg and Macomb airports.

The latest forecast models slowly move cold front southeast toward
I-72 by 00z/6 pm while low pressure near the TX/LA border moves
ne along the boundary and into the mid MS river valley by 12Z/6 am
Thu. This will spread showers back north across central and
especially southeast IL during this afternoon, with highest pops
and isolated thunderstorms south of I-72 by late afternoon. Highs
to reach the mid to upper 60s along and east of the IL river while
Galesburg struggles to reach back up to 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A cold front will slowly drift into IL from the west today, reaching
near the Illinois river around Noon/18z, and along the I-55 corridor
by 6 pm/00z. A break in the rain is likely to start off the day, as
one wave departs to the northeast and the before the next shortwave
begins to affect the area this afternoon. The presence of the cold
front alone could allow for spotty showers to develop before the big
northward push of rain later this afternoon. The RAP shows a line of
light showers near the front along the Illinois river from mid to
late morning, which the HRRR also shows for one hour at 17z/11am.
The prevailing agreement in the short term models is on rain showers
overspreading our forecast area from the south later this
afternoon. Areas south of I-70 have the best chances for rain this
afternoon, with showers most likely advancing up to the I-72
corridor by sunset. The better chances of thunder would be mainly
south of I-70 this afternoon, but instability parameters are
marginal at best today. Spotty showers could develop north of I-72
before evening, but most areas north of I-72 will see dry conditions
prevail for a majority of the day. Have limited PoPs quite a bit
this morning, with many areas dry, then ramped up PoPs to
categorical this afternoon for areas along and south of I-72. A mix
of chance and slight chance PoPs were included north of I-72.
Rainfall amounts today should generally remain a quarter inch or
less, with heavier rains expected beyond today.

Warm temps are expected again today, despite little to no sunshine.
Highs will reach the low 60s near Galesburg, with mid to upper 60s
elsewhere. Wind directions and speeds will be tied to the timing and
advancement of the cold front. South winds will prevail ahead of the
cold front in the eastern half of Illinois. Along the front, winds
will become light and variable, with northwest winds behind the
front.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Have had to make some significant edits to the forecast across the
northwest part of the CWA in regards to this heavy rain event.
Evening model guidance has shifted the heavy rain focus down toward
the I-70 corridor, and the front will be down in that general
vicinity by evening. GFS suggests the area near Galesburg could be
done with the rain chances as early as this afternoon, while the
ECMWF and especially the NAM bring some light rain that far north
this evening. While I have kept likely PoP`s going across the
Illinois River valley, I reduced them to only slight chances
Thursday and went dry Thursday night/Friday in that area.

Further southeast, will be hoisting a flash flood watch for the
areas along and south of I-70 from this afternoon through Thursday
afternoon. The frontal boundary will loiter in that area overnight,
as low pressure rides northeast along the front. Greatest moisture
advection focusing on the Ohio Valley northward to about I-70, with
precipitable water values up to about 1.5 inches tonight. Tonight
and early Thursday would be the primary concern for the heaviest
rain, as the low moves through. Fly in the ointment may be the
extensive convection currently across east Texas and far southern
Arkansas, potentially interrupting some of the moisture feed into
our area. Went with near 100% PoP`s for that area tonight and
Thursday, before phasing them out during the evening.

Most of the models keep Friday and Friday evening dry, with high
pressure tracking east through the Great Lakes. Main moisture surge
will be late Friday evening and overnight, as the upper low slowly
tracks northeast out of Texas and shears out. Right now, Saturday
night and Sunday look to have the highest weekend PoP`s, as the
remnant wave moves through the area.

Temperatures to remain quite mild during the period, with the only
real cooler surge associated with the passing high pressure Thursday
night and Friday. Associated east/northeast flow may dip lows across
the far northern CWA into the upper 30s Friday morning, but
temperatures in general remain well above normal into next week.
Upper level ridging early next week will bring 850 mb temperatures
around 15C by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A dry slot in the mid levels has pushed the majority of the rain
northeast of the TAF sites. A few showers are starting to develop
just east of CMI at 12z, so a VCSH was included there through 15z.
Otherwise dry conditions should prevail until mid-afternoon at the
terminal sites, when a cold front reaches near the I-55 corridor.
Rain will become likely at all TAF sites this evening, as a low
level jet intensifies across IL, and low pressure moves from SW to
NE across the area along the cold front. A few thunderstorms will
be possible, but overall instability appears to be relatively
weak, so have not included thunder in this TAF issuance.

IFR clouds have moved into PIA ahead of the cold front, with VFR
clouds farther east over the other TAF sites. Forecast soundings
show MVFR clouds should develop this morning, but dry air aloft
could create some breaks in the low clouds before rain starts to
spread north into our forecast area.

Winds will be varying over the next 24 hours, with south to
southwest winds around 10-15 kt this morning. Then winds will
shift to the west as the cold front arrives, with winds becoming
northerly behind the front this afternoon for PIA and BMI, and
eventually CMI this evening. The front will stall across the
southern terminals of SPI and DEC, where winds will become light
and variable.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

 442 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXTENDING FM ARK SSW INTO NRN LA/ERN TX DOWN TOWARD FAR S TX.
WHILE THIS LARGER AREA OF STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING DUE TO DEEP
UPR LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO...THE ACTIVITY ACRS SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL
LA HAS BEEN AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A MLU-JAS-IAH LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS HAVE RANGED FM 1.5 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES ACRS NRN
JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES AND NWRN VERNON PARISH...WHILE STORM
TOTALS SINCE YESTERDAY ARE NEARLY 7.5 INCHES ACRS THE SAME REGION.
THE OVERALL SVR THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY THANKS TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN
ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS WITH ROTATION TODAY.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER TX AND HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST.
SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE AGAIN SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT VIGOROUS UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES/FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT HAZARDS...FLOOD
WATCH...WIND ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PKG WILL BE QPF OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD LATEST HRRR TRENDS WHICH
SEEM TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB ON PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/HIGHER
QPF. THUS...KEPT HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX THIS
EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AS
WELL AS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL QPF TOTALS FM 00Z-12Z
INDICATE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES ACRS SE TX...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL
SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AS IS
ALSO THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE FORCING AND THE TRANSLATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...WHICH CAN
IMPACT WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND TRAINING STORMS SET UP. THIS CAN
RESULT IN HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS THE
WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN ACRS
MULTIPLE AREAS.

FOR THURSDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST...PLACING MORE OF CNTL LA AND THE ACADIANA REGION UNDER THE
HEAVIEST BULLS-EYE. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BANDS OF RAIN BEGIN TO TRAIN
OVER THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN CHCS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT NOT QUITE
COME TO AN END THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE LARGE UPR LOW WEAKENS
AND LIFTS OUT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR
RAIN TO THE EXTREME NRN ZONES. THINGS THEN LOOK TO BEGIN DRYING
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED
FETCH OF STRONG SLY WINDS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE GALE WARNINGS LOWERING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GRADUALLY
BCMG MORE SWLY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  77  67  74 / 100 100  90  80
LCH  69  77  65  74 /  80  90  80  70
LFT  71  76  67  74 /  60 100  90  80
BPT  68  77  64  76 / 100  90  80  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-
     074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-
     031>033-042>045-052>055-074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
     073-074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-
     073.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ455-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-432.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ452-455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

 402 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR TO NEAR RECORD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN EAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES HAVE
RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS OF 8 AM CST THIS MORNING
AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO RAIN ALL DAY TODAY. MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD
EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT AND A FEW RIVER AND LAKES ARE ALREADY
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD STAGE LEVELS.
UNFORTUNATELY...MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 2130Z...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CWA IS GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HRRR PLACES
THE AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER WEST. LOOKING AT RADAR LOOPS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOCATED
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 35 AND 45 SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND MORE
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND
GALVESTON ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
WITH A NOTABLE NORTHWARD COMPONENT. UNLESS THERE IS SOME
CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OR
SOME KIND OF MCV DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THESE COMPLEXES...I AM
DOUBTFUL OF THE MORE EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AS
SUPPORTED BY THE ARW AND A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.

THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...I HAVE PLACED THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FROM 00Z-12Z THURSDAY...
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A
DISTINCT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT VALUES...WELL OVER 2 INCHES...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO
10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 2 FEET. THIS WILL ADD TO
AN ALREADY HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING EVENT. WE WILL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING FOR SOME TIME AFTER THIS.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT BE OVER.

IF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER STILL EXISTS TONIGHT MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE AND ATLANTA TEXAS...TO MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE CUT OFF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN AS
A KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS
AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE VIGOROUS...SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND MORE
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/SE
TX EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK N ACROSS E TX/NW LA/SW AR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION FILLS IN...IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
+TSRA CONTINUES. AS THE HEAVY RAIN SETS IN AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...FLOODING OF RUNWAYS AND TAXIWAYS ARE
POSSIBLE. SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH FROM
S TO N BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY OVER E TX AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NWD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AS IT BEGINS
TO DRIFT N INTO S TX. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS N
LA/SW AR BY AFTERNOON JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. NE
WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
TO 7-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  72  63  73 / 100  90  80  70
MLU  66  72  65  74 / 100 100  80  70
DEQ  56  68  59  64 /  90  80  60  70
TXK  59  68  59  67 / 100  80  70  70
ELD  62  70  62  69 / 100 100  70  70
TYR  61  70  60  72 /  80  70  80  70
GGG  60  71  61  71 /  90  70  80  70
LFK  64  75  61  74 / 100  70  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

 1259 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CLOUDY WITH CEILINGS FROM 008 TO ABOUT 025 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE HRS FOR
SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA. TWRDS LFT AND ARA STORMS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF TILL THE EARLY EVE HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

UPDATE...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION HAS RAMPED
UP AGAIN THIS MORNING ACRS SE TX AND EXTREME WRN LA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FM NR HOUSTON NE ACRS
JASPER TOWARD WINNFIELD...RIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY
ACRS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS INDICATE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACRS
INTERIOR SE TX...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKES REGION. RADAR TRENDS
AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS INITIAL BAND WILL LIFT
NORTH...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
NE INTO SE TX/SW LA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FM 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NR THE SABINE RIVER. AS IS THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND
TRAINING STORMS SET UP AND COULD OCCUR A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS
THE WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN
ACRS MULTIPLE AREAS.

ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS TODAY WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...AND ALSO
TWEAKED POPS/WX SLIGHTLY...WITH THE PRIMARY CHANGE ACRS THE
ACADIANA REGION WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MINIMAL SO FAR.

ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST WINDS...INCORPORATING RECENT OBS
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AGAIN EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE BEAUREGARD AND VERNON
PARISHES AS WELL WHERE A FEW OBS SITE SHOWED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
OVER OLD MEXICO...COMBINED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY
STREAM OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW-END MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
SOUTHERLIES...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
BPT...LCH...ARA AND LFT.

23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF C AND SC
LA THRU 6 PM THU...AND EXTEND C AND SW PORTIONS OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THRU 6 PM THU. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME. SIDE NOTE...SPC GIVING 40% OF WATCH BOX ISSUANCE FOR SE TX
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MCS CONTINUES TO GROW IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER OLD
MEXICO/W TX THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY. FOR
THIS...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND.

RADAR SHOWING ONLY SCT SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BEGINNING TO
SEE THE RAINSHIELD FURTHER WEST OF WHAT WILL BE LIKELY AN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER OUR
REGION. RUNNING THE LATEST QPF NUMBERS YIELD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 9 TO 12 INCHES
OVER SE TX/W LA. FOR C LA THRU S LA BETWEEN LFT & LCH...EXPECTING
4 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 7 TO 10 INCHES. FOR THIS...HAD TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE EVANGELINE...ACADIA...JEFF DAVIS...AND EASTERN CAMERON
PARISHES.

IN ADDITION...SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR ENTIRE
AREA. POSSIBLE SVR WX THREATS INCLUDE MAINLY WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONG LLJ IN PLACE AND EXPECTED MCS...BUT CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAIL OR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CELLS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN MCS.

THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OUT AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY NE ACROSS N OLD MEXICO INTO TX THU THROUGH SAT. WILL
LIKELY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER THU AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS BITS OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
YIELDING INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA THRU SAT. BY SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX SUN. FOR NOW...KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER INLAND SE TX/C LA DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF HERE BY MON AND TUE
OF NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...YIELDING AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS.

DML

COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST...LEADING TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ESPECIALLY DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  66  74 / 100 100  70  70
LCH  68  76  64  74 / 100 100  60  60
LFT  70  75  66  74 / 100 100  80  60
BPT  67  75  63  76 / 100 100  60  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-
     074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-
     031>033-042>045-052>055-074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
     073-074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-
     073.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

 1110 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION HAS RAMPED
UP AGAIN THIS MORNING ACRS SE TX AND EXTREME WRN LA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FM NR HOUSTON NE ACRS
JASPER TOWARD WINNFIELD...RIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY
ACRS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS INDICATE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACRS
INTERIOR SE TX...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKES REGION. RADAR TRENDS
AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS INITIAL BAND WILL LIFT
NORTH...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
NE INTO SE TX/SW LA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FM 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NR THE SABINE RIVER. AS IS THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND
TRAINING STORMS SET UP AND COULD OCCUR A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS
THE WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN
ACRS MULTIPLE AREAS.

ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS TODAY WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...AND ALSO
TWEAKED POPS/WX SLIGHTLY...WITH THE PRIMARY CHANGE ACRS THE
ACADIANA REGION WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MINIMAL SO FAR.

ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST WINDS...INCORPORATING RECENT OBS
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AGAIN EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE BEAUREGARD AND VERNON
PARISHES AS WELL WHERE A FEW OBS SITE SHOWED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
OVER OLD MEXICO...COMBINED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY
STREAM OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW-END MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
SOUTHERLIES...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
BPT...LCH...ARA AND LFT.

23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF C AND SC
LA THRU 6 PM THU...AND EXTEND C AND SW PORTIONS OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THRU 6 PM THU. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME. SIDE NOTE...SPC GIVING 40% OF WATCH BOX ISSUANCE FOR SE TX
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MCS CONTINUES TO GROW IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER OLD
MEXICO/W TX THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY. FOR
THIS...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND.

RADAR SHOWING ONLY SCT SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BEGINNING TO
SEE THE RAINSHIELD FURTHER WEST OF WHAT WILL BE LIKELY AN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER OUR
REGION. RUNNING THE LATEST QPF NUMBERS YIELD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 9 TO 12 INCHES
OVER SE TX/W LA. FOR C LA THRU S LA BETWEEN LFT & LCH...EXPECTING
4 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 7 TO 10 INCHES. FOR THIS...HAD TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE EVANGELINE...ACADIA...JEFF DAVIS...AND EASTERN CAMERON
PARISHES.

IN ADDITION...SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR ENTIRE
AREA. POSSIBLE SVR WX THREATS INCLUDE MAINLY WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONG LLJ IN PLACE AND EXPECTED MCS...BUT CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAIL OR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CELLS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN MCS.

THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OUT AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY NE ACROSS N OLD MEXICO INTO TX THU THROUGH SAT. WILL
LIKELY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER THU AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS BITS OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
YIELDING INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA THRU SAT. BY SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX SUN. FOR NOW...KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER INLAND SE TX/C LA DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF HERE BY MON AND TUE
OF NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...YIELDING AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS.

DML

COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST...LEADING TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ESPECIALLY DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  67  76  66 / 100 100 100  70
LCH  75  68  76  64 /  90 100 100  60
LFT  76  70  75  66 /  50 100 100  80
BPT  74  67  75  63 / 100 100 100  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-
     074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029-
     031>033-042>045-052>055-074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
     073-074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-
     073.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 401 PM EST WED MAR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT AND DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT W/WARM FRONT BEING PINCHED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND SLOWLY LIFTING N THIS EVENING. NORTH OF THE
FRONT, TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S FROM CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE NORTHWARD
WHILE, SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE
40S AND 50S W/EVEN 60S AND 70S FOR SOUTHERN ME INTO NH. 12Z UA
ANALYSIS SHOWED A 55-65KT JET MAX FROM 700-500MBS ACROSS QUEBEC
SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE JET MAX IN CONJUNCTION
W/LOW PRES ACROSS QUEBEC & ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE STATE WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT. THE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE OF
70 JOULES W/850-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM. HRRR 3KM SHOWED
SOME ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BORDER THIS
EVENING BUT WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. INITIALLY WAS THINKING
OF ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTH AND WEST, BUT AFTER
FURTHER ASSESSMENT, DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. THE EVENING
SHIFT CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP 0.25" CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT W/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
THEN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FROPA WILL ARRIVE AFTER ABOUT 3 AM. KEPT
AREAS OF FOG FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING AND THEN STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED W/THE LOW ARRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 925MB TEMPS TO BE
BELOW 0C FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST SHOW
READINGS WELL ABOVE 0C. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FOR PRECIP TO BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON W/NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. DECIDED TO BRING 60-80% INTO THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON(AROUND 4PM).
STAYED W/20-50% FROM CARIBOU TO HOULTON BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT A COOLDOWN IS IN ORDER THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.... MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN. WITH TEMPERATURE ALOFT COLD ENOUGH WILL USE FORECAST
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTERIOR DOWN EAST. WILL USE SNOW RATIO RUN
ON MODEL BLEND AND COBB METHOD TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO A
FULL LATITUDE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN THE
RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION.  THIS SHOULD BRING A MIX OF WET SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN DUE TO TIME OF DAY WHEN THE FRONT PASSES RATHER THAN ANY
SIGNIFICANT POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE.


THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR W/AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR TONIGHT W/AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, VFR. FOR KBGR AND KBHB, VFR
W/A PERIOD OF MVFR TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR KBGR AND KBHB THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS UP THROUGH 7 PM. SOME GUSTS STILL EXPECTED
TO HIT 25 KTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES. SEAS HAVE JUMPED TO 6-8 FT.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SHOWING
SPEEDS TO DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING W/WINDS VEERING TO THE WSW
10-15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BACK TO 4-6 FT. THE SCA THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT MAY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SEAS STAY UP.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK MORE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
WAVES: EXPECT WIND WAVE... WHICH WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST TO DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WAVE SYSTEM LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 116 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

AFTER A FRESH LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE NEARLY EVERY MODEL
INDICATES AN INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO DRAMATICALLY RAMPED
UP POPS/WEATHER/SNOW. THINKING NOW AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ALONG A
NARROW BAND...POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SURFACE TEMPS ARE
IN THE 32-37 RANGE BUT WITH INTENSE PRECIP RATES IT SHOULD CHANGE
FROM A LIGHT DRIZZLE/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW FOR A TIME. ROAD
TEMPERATURES MAY VERY WELL STAY WARM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION ON THE MAIN ROADS...BUT ANY UNTREATED...LESS
TRAVELED...OR ELEVATED ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS FALLS AS MORE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX REDUCING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN
AVAILABLE SFC OBS AND WEBCAM IMAGERY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
INTENSE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED AND
ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES TO
GIVE A HEADS UP FOR THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

ONE MORE QUICK UPDATE FOR THE POPS/WEATHER. TIGHTENED UP THE POP
GRADIENT AND INCREASED POPS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS BEST...NEARLY THE
SAME AREA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT INCREASED GIVEN THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND RADAR/OBS. ALSO DECIDED TO ADD DRIZZLE
WORDING ON THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS
HIGHEST GIVEN THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AM A
BIT CONCERNED SOME HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FOR A BRIEF TIME...AT
THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS A BAND OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST
TO THE TWO HARBORS/TWIN PORTS AREA. WHILE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BEGIN...THINK A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KEPT JUST RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/FZRA
INSTEAD OF ALSO INCLUDING DRIZZLE WORDING SINCE FORCING APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN...BUT WILL ADD/REPLACE WITH DRIZZLE
WORDING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRECIP DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED AN AREA OF FOG IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THIS
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.

00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBRD TO
KDLH...PRODUCING LIFR CEILINGS AND WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE JUST IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES.
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
BAND OF PRECIP SHIFTING EAST AND DIMINISHING THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT.
EXPECT KHYR TO ALSO LOWER TO IFR AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST. FOG
POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS 06Z-15Z WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  44  30  51 /  70   0   0   0
INL  21  46  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  27  50  31  60 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  28  47  29  57 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  27  44  28  55 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1227 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

ONE MORE QUICK UPDATE FOR THE POPS/WEATHER. TIGHTENED UP THE POP
GRADIENT AND INCREASED POPS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS BEST...NEARLY THE
SAME AREA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT INCREASED GIVEN THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND RADAR/OBS. ALSO DECIDED TO ADD DRIZZLE
WORDING ON THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS
HIGHEST GIVEN THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AM A
BIT CONCERNED SOME HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FOR A BRIEF TIME...AT
THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS A BAND OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST
TO THE TWO HARBORS/TWIN PORTS AREA. WHILE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BEGIN...THINK A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KEPT JUST RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/FZRA
INSTEAD OF ALSO INCLUDING DRIZZLE WORDING SINCE FORCING APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN...BUT WILL ADD/REPLACE WITH DRIZZLE
WORDING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRECIP DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED AN AREA OF FOG IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THIS
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.

00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBRD TO
KDLH...PRODUCING LIFR CEILINGS AND WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE JUST IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES.
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
BAND OF PRECIP SHIFTING EAST AND DIMINISHING THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT.
EXPECT KHYR TO ALSO LOWER TO IFR AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST. FOG
POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS 06Z-15Z WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  44  30  51 /  50   0   0   0
INL  21  46  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  27  50  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  28  47  29  57 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  27  44  28  55 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1126 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

ONE MORE QUICK UPDATE FOR THE POPS/WEATHER. TIGHTENED UP THE POP
GRADIENT AND INCREASED POPS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS BEST...NEARLY THE
SAME AREA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT INCREASED GIVEN THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND RADAR/OBS. ALSO DECIDED TO ADD DRIZZLE
WORDING ON THE PERIPHERY OF WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS
HIGHEST GIVEN THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. OUT TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AM A
BIT CONCERNED SOME HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FOR A BRIEF TIME...AT
THIS POINT DO NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY AND UPDATE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS A BAND OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST
TO THE TWO HARBORS/TWIN PORTS AREA. WHILE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BEGIN...THINK A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. KEPT JUST RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/FZRA
INSTEAD OF ALSO INCLUDING DRIZZLE WORDING SINCE FORCING APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAIN...BUT WILL ADD/REPLACE WITH DRIZZLE
WORDING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRECIP DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADDED AN AREA OF FOG IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM A QUARTER MILE TO A MILE...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THIS
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES VERSIONS...WERE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE MAIN AREA WILL RUN FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION GETTING DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTALS TO BE PRESENT. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...ALTHOUGH WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ZONES. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SLEET
IN SPOTS. WE HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER AS IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THIS BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK. KABR SHOWS STRONG RETURNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THESE STRONGER RETURNS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...THEN END. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 50 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... WITH AN UNUSUAL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A CLOSED 500MB CORE LOCATED
LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL ALLOW
QUIET WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STALL THROUGH SATURDAY. A PASSING DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE 50S AND 60S... BUT PROXIMITY
AND FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER BY THE LAKE.

00Z SUNDAY... THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE 500MB LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SOUTHERN DISTURBANCES TO INFILTRATE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE TO MOSTLY KEEP P-
TYPE IN RAIN FORM... BUT DIURNAL PATTERNS MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIXES
OR ALL SNOW AT TYPES TO OUR FAR NORTHERLY ZONES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

ASIDE FROM FRIDAY MORNING... MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS A COLD SNAP TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAPID SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED... CPC`S 6-10 DAY, 8-14
DAY, ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH A FEW MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE... EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVEN VERY
BRIEF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
HIB/INL/BRD... BUT VIS/CIGS WILL LIKELY PLUMMET AGAIN TONIGHT DUE
TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  27  44  30 /  60  50   0   0
INL  35  21  46  30 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  38  27  50  31 /  60  10   0   0
HYR  38  28  47  29 /  30  30   0   0
ASX  39  27  44  28 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 1157 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1042 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Have just trimmed the northern and western parts of the flash
flood watch. Latest water vapor imagery is still showing the upper
low digging over Mexico. There is still an area of showers with
some thunderstorms that will affect the area during the late
afternoon into tonight. This will be mainly in area south of I-44
in Missouri and south of I-70 in Illinois. Latest runs of the GFS
and NAM as well as the CAMS has shown that the heaviest QPF axis
has shifted just south of the CWA late tonight. If this trend
continues, we may be able further trim watch this afternoon. Rain
will end from west to east during the day tomorrow.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

More rain expected tonight as the models depict strong upper
level divergence over much of the area ahead of the approaching
northern stream upper level trough and in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
Most of the models have the highest QPF shifted a little further
southeast than previous model runs with the low level jet axis
extending across the western portions of TN and KY tonight along
with the best low level moisture, and the surface front across
southeast MO and southern IL. The heaviest rainfall totals for
today through Thursday morning will be 2 to 3 inches across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL with locally higher amounts
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through Thursday
morning across parts of central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
The best potential for heavy rain should be south and east of STL.
Most of the rain should shift south of the forecast area Thursday
night and Friday as the front shifts south of the region and a
surface ridge moves eastward through the Great Lakes area. The
ECMWF model appears to have too much rain north of the front in
the southern portion of our forecast area, and prefer the drier
solutions of the NAM and GFS. Cooler temperatures can be expected
for Thursday night, albeit still above normal. Rain will spread
back northward through our forecast area Friday night and Saturday
as the slow moving upper level low moves into the southern Plains
and a modest southerly low level jet brings low level moisture
back northward into our area Friday night. A warm front will also
be moving northward through our area on Saturday. The threat for
rain may continue into Sunday night until the upper level low
finally opens up and lifts east of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

IFR ceilings are present along and just behind a slow moving cold
front from near KCOU to KUIN with MVFR cigs elsewhere. As drier
air slowly filters in this evening, ceilings should improve to
MVFR at both KUIN and KCOU. MVFR ceilings should last through at
least 00Z at KSTL metro TAF sites...however ceilings will
approach IFR this evening and widespread light rain should begin
around 04Z as well. Expect conditions to improve gradually by
around 12Z to MVFR.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings will last at least through
00Z...however they may drop to near IFR levels by around 04Z this
evening as light rain moves into the region. Ceilings should
improve to MVFR by around 12Z.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Clinton
     IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-
     Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 1103 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1042 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Have just trimmed the northern and western parts of the flash
flood watch. Latest water vapor imagery is still showing the upper
low digging over Mexico. There is still an area of showers with
some thunderstorms that will affect the area during the late
afternoon into tonight. This will be mainly in area south of I-44
in Missouri and south of I-70 in Illinois. Latest runs of the GFS
and NAM as well as the CAMS has shown that the heaviest QPF axis
has shifted just south of the CWA late tonight. If this trend
continues, we may be able further trim watch this afternoon. Rain
will end from west to east during the day tomorrow.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Convection well south of the area over Arkansas and northern
Louisiana is intercepting the low level jet this morning which is
keeping all of the precipitation well south of our CWFA. Models
are in pretty good agreement that any real significant rain will
likely hold off until at least sometime during the mid to late
afternoon. Some light rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
are possible as the weak cold front currently stretching from near
Kirksville down into extreme southeast Kansas drifts down across
Central Missouri. GFS and NAM are very bullish on QPF this
afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois as the low level jet increases and reinvigorates
convection along the 850mb front. However...I am skeptical.
HRRR/NSSL WRF/NCEP WRF do redevelop precipitation this afternoon
in the same areas as the NAM and GFS, but the convection does not
look strong enough to account for the high QPF values of the GFS
and NAM. Additionally, the RAP`s QPF for this afternoon is not
nearly as high as the GFS and NAM which makes me want to discount
them as well. I therefore used a blend of HRRR and RAP for PoPs
today...basically chance to or slight chance for this morning,
building into likely and categorical across the southeast 1/2 to
2/3 of the CWFA. QPF was a blend of short range models, but comes
out to about 1/2 inch or less for most of the area increasing
rapidly to around 1 inch over the southern extreme of the area. No
changes to the flash flood watch at this time...though if it looks
like the latest runs of the models are going to pan out later
today and tonight, the day shift and/or evening shift tonight may
be able to pull some the northwestern counties from the watch.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

More rain expected tonight as the models depict strong upper
level divergence over much of the area ahead of the approaching
northern stream upper level trough and in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
Most of the models have the highest QPF shifted a little further
southeast than previous model runs with the low level jet axis
extending across the western portions of TN and KY tonight along
with the best low level moisture, and the surface front across
southeast MO and southern IL. The heaviest rainfall totals for
today through Thursday morning will be 2 to 3 inches across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL with locally higher amounts
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through Thursday
morning across parts of central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
The best potential for heavy rain should be south and east of STL.
Most of the rain should shift south of the forecast area Thursday
night and Friday as the front shifts south of the region and a
surface ridge moves eastward through the Great Lakes area. The
ECMWF model appears to have too much rain north of the front in
the southern portion of our forecast area, and prefer the drier
solutions of the NAM and GFS. Cooler temperatures can be expected
for Thursday night, albeit still above normal. Rain will spread
back northward through our forecast area Friday night and Saturday
as the slow moving upper level low moves into the southern Plains
and a modest southerly low level jet brings low level moisture
back northward into our area Friday night. A warm front will also
be moving northward through our area on Saturday. The threat for
rain may continue into Sunday night until the upper level low
finally opens up and lifts east of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2016

Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are moving thorugh central
and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Remainder
of the area is MVFR and VFR with some ceilings around 2500 ft and
above. Expect flight conditions to improve this morning after
sunrise, but showers and a few thunderstorms with heavy rain
possible will develop along and south of I-70 late this afternoon
and into the evening. MVFR and IFR flight conditions will
accompany the rain.

Specifics for KSTL:

Think VFR conditions will prevail this morning...but there`s a
chance the 2500-3000 ft ceilings southeast of the terminal will
move up over the terminal at some point before 15-16Z. Showers and
a few thunderstorms will overspread the terminal this afternoon.
Periods of rain with MVFR and possible IFR will continue until
Thursday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Bond IL-Clinton
     IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-
     Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 309 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

AT H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST. TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES... PRECIPITATION... AND
FOG. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THIS EVENING... LOW LEVEL LIFT IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS EVIDENCED BY A CU FIELD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE
PANHANDLE AS TOLD BY INVADING ALTOCU/CIRRUS. KEPT SCHC/ISO MENTION
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LIFT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES. RAP AND NAM
SOUNDING PROFILES RESEMBLE AN INVERTED V... SUGGESTING MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. NOT
MUCH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS CAPE IS MARGINAL... GENERALLY LESS THAN
300J/KG... AND LIFTED INDEX IS NEAR 0C.

TONIGHT... FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES
SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 295K. CONTINUED SCHC RA- ALONG/EAST FROM KIML TO
KBBW THROUGH 12Z. DESPITE MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING... TEMP PROFILES
SHOW A LARGE INVERSION AND MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH 850HPA TEMPS
NEAR 7C. ALSO... DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS SFC TEMPS APPROACH
32F... LIMITING THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIP. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA... INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG DUE TO PART PERSISTENCE AND PART
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE OVERALL MOISTURE AND WIND FLOW ARE SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING... WHERE FOG DEVELOPED FROM KVTN TO KONL AND NORTH.
ALSO... NAM AND RAP SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHILE SREF HINTS AT SOME NEAR
KONL. DROPPED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THURSDAY... SUBSIDENCE RESUMES AND MID LEVELS REALLY DRY OUT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. 850HPA FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPS
TOPPING 10C IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS AND 8C NORTH
CENTRAL. HUGGED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS... WHICH GENERALLY
INCREASED HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. UPPED AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE FARTHER
WEST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AND WARMER AT 850HPA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MODELS CONTINUE WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WILL USE A BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH A
RISE TO NEAR 15C THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUAL COOL DOWN FROM
MONDAY BUT NOT AS DRASTIC AS THE LAST TWO DAYS. CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MEXICO SYSTEM
SHEARING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING CUT OFF LOW TO MOVE
UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN
ITS WAKE. THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR STRONGER WAVE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. DEPTH
OF TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO BACK OFF. WILL TREND TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWNWARD. IN THE MID
TERM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. TIMING IN GFS AND
ECMWF ABOUT A DAYS DIFFERENCE AND HAVE BEGUN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 50S AND 60S ON TUESDAY AND THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

OTHER THAN CURRENTLY ERODING STRATUS INVOF KVTN...KANW...AND
KONL... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CERNTAL NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS
BEING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SOME GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS RESUME THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HEIGHTENED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. NEAR
CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES... UNDER 20 PERCENT... ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AN ISSUE THURSDAY... BUT FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO WORK EAST. SOUTHERLY 850HPA WINDS APPROACH 30
KTS... AND A LOT OF THAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE
AS A DEEP MIXED LAYER TAKES HOLD. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 137 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

NO NOON UPDATE REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA COULD LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED NICELY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE DENSE FOG NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. THE FOG HAS LIFTED IN
STANLEY. ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DROPPED TO PATCHY FOG
FROM AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS RESULTED IN COLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING CLOSE TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM/NOW THROUGH 12Z...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST...AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
STRATUS DOMINATES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS MORNING...WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOUTH. HOWEVER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING FOG FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SHORTWAVE
WAS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS
SEEN IN NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAKENING TRENDS FOR BOTH AREAS.

OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
REBOUNDING OR RISING HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT
NO PRECIPITATION THREAT OTHER THAN THE TWO MINOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS IN THE NORTH AND
AREAS OF FOG TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY VERY MILD AND DRY.
A RATHER PERSISTENT H500 GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL FOCUS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...SATURDAY...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE SUPERBLEND INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
70 SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
DICKINSON. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND ALSO
MIXED DOWN THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME BUT THURSDAY WILL SEE LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER FIRE WEATHER WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AND THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.

THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND FORMS A CLOSED H500
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD BRING A MIX IF RAIN AND SNOW BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 334 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...AT MID AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA...OTHERWISE MID TN WAS RAIN FREE.
SKIES WERE CLOUDY WEST OF I 65...AND MAINLY SUNNY EAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE VERY MILD 70S...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. AN
INTERESTING AND UNEXPECTED FEATURE IS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS
SHARPENED ACROSS NW MID TN...SEPARATING RAIN COOLED AIR AND NW
WINDS IN THE CKV AREA FROM THE MILD AIR AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MOST MODELS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE. THE
RAP MODEL SHOWS IT...AND INDICATES THE FEATURE STAYING AROUND INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN LARGE SCALE WX FEATURES AFFECTING OUR WX INCLUDE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
AND TX. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS HAS CREATED SOUTH WINDS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE RUNNING 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS...BUT NOT QUITE RECORD
SETTING. THE SOUTH FLOW WAS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST...UP THE MS VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. ALSO...THERE WAS A FRONT LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO THE MID MS VALLEY THAT WILL BE COMING OUR WAY.

FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS WARMER THAN
OUR NORMAL HIGHS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE WEST HALF. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS DEEP MOISTURE COMES IN FROM THE SSW. RAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS MID TN THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I 65.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE TN VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING AND
MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TX LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN. THERE
WILL BE EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST TIME...WITH 30-40 POPS.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN ON SATURDAY...SOME PLACES MAY TOUCH 80
DEGREES.

AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY...DRY WX WILL RETURN
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S...AND POSSIBLY 80 IN
SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE JUST NW OF CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH
MENTION...BUT HRRR INDICATES -SHRA WILL MOVE BACK OVER AIRPORT
AROUND 04Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NO PRECIP
ANTICIPATED AT BNA/CSV TODAY/TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED AT AIRPORTS THROUGH WED
EVE...SUBSIDING TO 5-11 KTS TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  75  58  70  60 /  20  70  80  50  40
CLARKSVILLE    59  70  56  68  57 /  60 100  80  50  50
CROSSVILLE     59  71  60  68  59 /  10  20  70  50  30
COLUMBIA       62  75  60  69  60 /  20  60  80  60  40
LAWRENCEBURG   61  75  61  71  61 /  10  40  80  60  40
WAVERLY        61  72  55  69  58 /  50  90  80  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 252 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HEAVY RAIN EVENT WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS SETUP IS PUMPING
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM
EAST TEXAS NORTHEAST THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH. A STEADY STREAM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN COVERS MUCH OF THE DELTA ATTM WITH FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT AS A STREAM OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE
REGION. PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES OR MORE ADVECT INTO THE MID-SOUTH
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THIS CONFIRMED WELL BY THE LATEST HRRR DATA. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT SEEMS GOOD ATTM. THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND START TO PUSH IT EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH UP TO ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND 3-4 INCHES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INCLUDING MEMPHIS. SOME PLACES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE OVER
10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA...RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...MAY NOT GET QUITE AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER PICKING UP
MORE. EITHER WAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLACE LIKE
THE CURRENT BOUNDARY HOWEVER GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ON A ISOLATED LEVEL. THE GROUND WILL
BE SATURATED AND RIVER/STREAM FLOWS WILL ALREADY BE HIGH SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER LOW THAT TREKKED
FROM MEXICO IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH ON TO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXIT THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...DRY AND VERY WARM...MAYBE 80.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

A DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EXISTS AT JBR WHERE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH OCCASIONAL
VCTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SHORTLY...REMAINING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FURTHER EAST AT MEM...A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST...AND LIKELY OSCILLATE NEAR
THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER VIS WITH VCTS IN
THE LINE IS LIKELY ONCE IT MOVES IN...AND IT COULD PERSIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME. AFTER 09Z...LIGHTNING MAY DECREASE
WITH A STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. TUP AND MKL WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL
LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1246 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO AND TX. IN BETWEEN...SOUTH WINDS WERE BRINGING MILD AIR
INTO THE TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WAS FOCUSED FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST UP
THE MS VALLEY...WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING. A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WERE AFFECTING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST...MAINLY WEST OF DICKSON AND CLARKSVILLE. THESE AREAS
WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 70S.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE MID STATE...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S PLATEAU.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...ABOUT 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE JUST NW OF CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH
MENTION...BUT HRRR INDICATES -SHRA WILL MOVE BACK OVER AIRPORT
AROUND 04Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NO PRECIP
ANTICIPATED AT BNA/CSV TODAY/TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED AT AIRPORTS THROUGH WED
EVE...SUBSIDING TO 5-11 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1120 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF EAST
ARKANSAS...NW MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SW TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LOW
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PWATS IN THIS PLUME ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. ALL
THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES
FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WHICH ALONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIVER. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAPPENING UPSTREAM THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. HAVE UPPED POPS ALONG THE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.

CLASSIC HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CURRENTLY...A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FROM A SFC LOW
LOCATED IN EAST TENNESSEE. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED TO
TRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY...SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER OCCURRED WITH THE SHOWERS BUT SINCE HAS DIED
OUT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NEAR
TULSA OKLAHOMA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SET UP A CORRIDOR OF
HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH EAST ARKANSAS
TO EAST TEXAS/WEST LOUISIANA. PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS IS NOW
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY.
AS MUCH AS 2-5 INCHES COULD FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCERN BEING
RANDOLPH...CLAY...LAWRENCE...GREENE...AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOW EXTENDS AROUND THIS
MODERATE RISK AREA AND STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH
EASTWARD TO OBION COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTH TO QUITMAN/COAHOMA
COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. WHILE RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A HUGE
CONCERN ALONG THE BLACK...CACHE...AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER
BASINS...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR THE AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE WATCH FROM THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. THUS WILL
CONVERT FLOOD WATCH TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. RIVER FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE BLACK...CACHE AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER
BASINS AND WILL LIKELY RISE FURTHER IF PROJECTED QPF AMOUNTS
VERIFY. IF YOU LIVE ALONG ANY OF THESE RIVERS...PREPARE NOW FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING AS THE RIVERS COULD RISE QUICKLY WITH AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FORECASTED. ALSO...IF YOU MUST TRAVEL DO NOT DRIVE OVER
ANY ROADWAY THAT IS COVERED BY WATER. TURN AROUND AND TAKE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...EXPECT SPEEDS
TO STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED
TO REEVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL ESSENTIALLY MERGE INTO ONE STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN LAST
NIGHTS MODEL RUNS WERE PROJECTING. THIS HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL
REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE BIGGEST THREAT AS THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. DO NOT SEE THIS CHANGING UNTIL THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS TO MOVE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...PW/S ARE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT...WILL
ALSO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH IN TIME THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS
MUCH AS 7-10 INCHES COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROF AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION.

A SECONDARY UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL RESULT IN EVEN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

A DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EXISTS AT JBR WHERE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH OCCASIONAL
VCTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SHORTLY...REMAINING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FURTHER EAST AT MEM...A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST...AND LIKELY OSCILLATE NEAR
THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER VIS WITH VCTS IN
THE LINE IS LIKELY ONCE IT MOVES IN...AND IT COULD PERSIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME. AFTER 09Z...LIGHTNING MAY DECREASE
WITH A STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. TUP AND MKL WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL
LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1104 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT MID MORNING...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO AND TX. IN BETWEEN...SOUTH WINDS WERE BRINGING MILD AIR
INTO THE TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.

A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WAS FOCUSED FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST UP
THE MS VALLEY...WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING. A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WERE AFFECTING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST...MAINLY WEST OF DICKSON AND CLARKSVILLE. THESE AREAS
WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 70S.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE MID STATE...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S PLATEAU.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...ABOUT 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM LARGER UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
EASTERN AR AND WESTERN TN. HRRR HAS BEEN BULLISH WITH PUSHING
PRECIP INTO CKV DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BUT OTHER MODELS
ARE KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST OF THE TN RIVER. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. MORE MODELS ARE ON BOARD
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR CKV THEREFORE
MENTIONED VCSH. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD AND WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY BUT STILL IN THE 10
KT RANGE.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1032 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF EAST
ARKANSAS...NW MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SW TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LOW
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PWATS IN THIS PLUME ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. ALL
THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES
FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WHICH ALONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIVER. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAPPENING UPSTREAM THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. HAVE UPPED POPS ALONG THE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.

CLASSIC HEAVY RAIN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CURRENTLY...A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FROM A SFC LOW
LOCATED IN EAST TENNESSEE. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED TO
TRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY...SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER OCCURRED WITH THE SHOWERS BUT SINCE HAS DIED
OUT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NEAR
TULSA OKLAHOMA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SET UP A CORRIDOR OF
HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH EAST ARKANSAS
TO EAST TEXAS/WEST LOUISIANA. PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS IS NOW
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY.
AS MUCH AS 2-5 INCHES COULD FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCERN BEING
RANDOLPH...CLAY...LAWRENCE...GREENE...AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOW EXTENDS AROUND THIS
MODERATE RISK AREA AND STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH
EASTWARD TO OBION COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTH TO QUITMAN/COAHOMA
COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. WHILE RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A HUGE
CONCERN ALONG THE BLACK...CACHE...AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER
BASINS...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR THE AREAS
UNDERNEATH THE WATCH FROM THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. THUS WILL
CONVERT FLOOD WATCH TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. RIVER FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE BLACK...CACHE AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER
BASINS AND WILL LIKELY RISE FURTHER IF PROJECTED QPF AMOUNTS
VERIFY. IF YOU LIVE ALONG ANY OF THESE RIVERS...PREPARE NOW FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING AS THE RIVERS COULD RISE QUICKLY WITH AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FORECASTED. ALSO...IF YOU MUST TRAVEL DO NOT DRIVE OVER
ANY ROADWAY THAT IS COVERED BY WATER. TURN AROUND AND TAKE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...EXPECT SPEEDS
TO STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED
TO REEVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL ESSENTIALLY MERGE INTO ONE STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN LAST
NIGHTS MODEL RUNS WERE PROJECTING. THIS HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL
REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE BIGGEST THREAT AS THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. DO NOT SEE THIS CHANGING UNTIL THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS TO MOVE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...PW/S ARE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT...WILL
ALSO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH IN TIME THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS
MUCH AS 7-10 INCHES COULD FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROF AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION.

A SECONDARY UPPER TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL RESULT IN EVEN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHRA AT MEM/JBR. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY THEN BECOME MORE PERSISTENT THIS EVENING AS
CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR AT MEM/JBR.
OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MKL/TUP. SE/SSE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS
TODAY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1229 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED PRODUCTS TO REMOVE SEVERE WATCH FROM THE
AREA. INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE NEAR THE COAST. STILL GOOD
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS...BUT SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL. ANOTHER PULSE
OF ENERGY WILL IMPACT AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LIKELY
RAISE POPS UP SOME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL HAVE OTHER THINGS
TO TAKE CARE OF FIRST...BUT THAT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE THE
TREND. UPDATES OUT.

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL TRY TO KEEP THIS SHORT...BUT IS NOT GONNA HAPPEN.
CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN/THUNDER OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS (LIKE KCRP AND KVCT).
EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...THEN DEVELOP WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CIGS WILL DROP AS A RESULT. WILL GO WITH AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/THUNDER IN TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY (MORE
TEMPO/PROB30 AFTER 10/09Z...SEE TAFS)...THEN IT LOOKS THAT BEST
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. AM EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MID-DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

CONCERNING VSBYS...MOS IS GIVING FOG OVERNIGHT OVER
TERMINALS...SOME OF IT DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS
TIME BUT AM GOING WITH MVFR FOG AS WINDS DECREASE. HARD TO GO WITH
DENSE FOG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS HERE...AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS
DOES NOT HAPPEN MUCH. HOWEVER...IF WINDS DO COME MORE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WE COULD HAVE FOG IFR OR WORSE. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW RESIDES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SVR WATCH NUMBER 40 UNTIL NOON.
ALSO...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS BEE...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES. UPPER JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST...THE LATTER DOING SO BY NOON (HENCE THE WATCH TIL NOON).
UPDATES ARE OUT. SCA IS ON-GOING AND LOOKS OK FOR NOW (WILL LOOK
AT IT A BIT MORE BUT HAVE BIGGER FISH TO FRY FOR NOW).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SHRA REMARKS FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS YET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.

MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  61  74  59  73  /  90  70  50  40  40
VICTORIA          71  62  74  55  73  /  90  80  50  40  50
LAREDO            74  57  73  55  71  /  50  40  70  40  40
ALICE             70  60  75  55  73  /  70  60  60  40  40
ROCKPORT          73  63  71  62  71  /  90  80  40  30  40
COTULLA           69  58  70  54  71  /  60  40  70  50  50
KINGSVILLE        71  60  76  56  74  /  80  60  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       71  64  74  62  72  /  90  70  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION