Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/08/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
142 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY WEATHER TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED.
A WARM UP WILL START MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE IS JUST OVER THE LAS VEGAS AREA
AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. IN IT/S WAKE THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA
OF STRONGEST PVA. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPED AND
WAVE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...ISSUED
A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN THE FOCUS OF ISSUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE FROM LA PAZ COUNTY ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...WILL BE LIGHT. HRRR RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH SHOWERS/CONVECTION REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THAT AREA.
FIRST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MONDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSE LOW SOUTH OF NOGALES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES IN...THEN
THOSE SHOWER CHANCES SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A WINDOW DURING TUESDAY THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF ARIZONA SPILLS INTO THE PHOENIX
AREA...PRIMARILY BASED ON VERY MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS
ACTUAL FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK/ABSENT. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO
5000 FEET BUT WITH LITTLE QPF EXPECTED ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY
ISSUES.
MIDWEEK...RIDGE AXIS NOSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING QUIET
AND WARMING WEATHER. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR A POTENTIAL
SYSTEM IN THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS A BIT
OF A BOWLING BALL UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO ARIZONA BUT THE GFS TIME-
LAGGED ENSEMBLE SHOWS A MUCH WEATHER SYSTEM WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
TREND. LIKEWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GEFS AND THE EC
ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS NEAR-
CLIMO POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE PHX AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A
SHORT TIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO REVERT BACK TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
SEEING TODAY. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS AOA 12K FEET TO
BECOME FEW-SCT AROUND 7K FEET THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR
A TIME LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A REMOTE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH IN THE KIWA AND KSDL TAFS. SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE GREATER PHX AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...BUT WITH CIGS REMAINING MAINLY AOA 12K FEET.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG AND GUSTY SFC WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 18-28 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BRIEFLY FALLING AS LOW AS 10-
12 KTS AT KIPL AND 6-8 KTS AT KBLH BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO BKN-OVC CIGS
WITH BASES AROUND 12K FEET DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND FEW-SCT CLOUD LAYERS AS LOW AS 5K FEET MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY...WITH
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE
70S...AND THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX
EAST...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP WITH
MANY OF THE LOWER DESERTS FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY
MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 10
PERCENT ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ020-021-
025-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ020-021-025-026.
CA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ031>033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
953 AM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY TODAY. PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WILL BE
QUITE MODEST. A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LAS VEGAS
AREA LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY JET CUTTING INTO
ARIZONA. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
WHICH CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES WELL. COINCIDENT WITH THE VORT MAX
SOME CONVECTION IS NOTED. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
AND CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE VORT MAX
CLIPS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ACTIVITY
WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THOUGH. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
IMPERIAL COUNTY /SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 15
TO ABOUT 35 MPH AND WE EXPECT THOSE VALUES TO GO HIGHER AND SPREAD
INTO MOST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BLOWING DUST REMAINS POSSIBLE...WHICH WE HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR MESSAGING MATERIALS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WE DID
ADD SOME BLOWING DUST INTO SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY...ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 8 STRETCH NEAR GILA BEND...TO BETTER COLLABORATE WITH THE
NWS TUCSON OFFICE AND BASED ON ENHANCED GUST POTENTIAL PER LATEST
HRRR RUNS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY
GRIDDED FORECAST DATA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DISPLACING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THE JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM IS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA.
THE RIDGE IS CAUSING A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A LOT DIFLUENCE OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS OF THIS WRITING...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE L.A. BASIN AND CONTINUING OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM IS A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A LOT OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OFF AS MUCH AS THEY WOULD OTHERWISE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME VERY WEAK
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EMBEDDED IN THOSE CLOUDS TRACKING ACROSS LA
PAZ...NORTHERN MARICOPA...GILA COUNTY...AND POINTS NORTH. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
WHICH HAS KEPT MIXING GOING. AS A SIDE NOTE...THOSE WINDS HAVE
ADVECTED HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INLAND AND THE BEST QG FORCING TRACKING JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THERE IS ALSO RAIN SHADOWING OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO CONTEND
WITH WHICH WILL PUT A DENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS THE FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS MODEST
TODAY/TONIGHT. SREF DEPICTS A TINY BIT OF CAPE BRUSHING OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MERIT MENTION OF T-STORMS. WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOST NOTICEABLY FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS FOR US. WINDS LOOK TO BE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN OUR MOST DUST PRONE AREA OF PINAL COUNTY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY BUT UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WILL CAUSE
IT TO DIG SOUTHWARD ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICAL FORCING AFFECTS COASTAL CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND
FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS
TIME SUCH THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA...BUT NOT GREAT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH DECREASING CHANCES
EASTWARD...OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE PATTERN OFTEN IS. AN EXCEPTION WOULD
BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. PRECIP AMOUNTS...IF
ANY...WILL BE QUITE MODEST. CAPE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO MEAGER TO
MENTION T-STORMS. POPS TRAIL OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AND END
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME NICE
ADDITIONAL COOLING COMES IN WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
FINALLY DROPPING BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND. A WEAKENING TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS
DEPICTS SOME VERY LIGHT QPF BUT ECMWF AND GEM DO NOT. NAEFS POPS
REMAIN LOW. NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS TIME TO MENTION PRECIP
OUTSIDE OF JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL MONUMENT AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE COOLER
TEMPS GOING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR
PHOENIX TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE TRADITIONAL
EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING TO WESTERLY MUCH EARLIER THAN
USUAL (MID TO LATE MORNING) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
GUSTS IN A 20-30KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE THICK CLOUDS ABOVE THE 12K FT LEVEL WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS AOA 15K FEET. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SCT CU DECKS WILL DEVELOP WITH BASES AROUND 7K FEET AND
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL CIGS AT THAT LEVEL. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY ALSO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS MAINLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...IF ANY RAIN OCCURS AT ALL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG AND GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORCE GUSTY WEST WINDS
AT KIPL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FROPA AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONLY MODERATE. EXPECT STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AT KIPL MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK
GUSTS 35 MPH OR HIGHER...AND SOME BLOWING DUST MAY BE POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH VIS VALUES AT THE TERMINAL SHOULD STAY ABOVE 5SM. KBLH WILL
LIKELY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH DIRECTIONS
FAVORING THE W/SW. GUSTS MAY FALL IN A 30-35KT RANGE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND THE 6K FT
LEVEL MAY ALSO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY...WITH
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE
70S...AND THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX
EAST...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP WITH
MANY OF THE LOWER DESERTS FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY
MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 10
PERCENT ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ020-021-025-026.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/AJ
AVIATION...CB/MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
936 AM PST SUN MAR 6 2016
...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND RENEWED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF BY LATE MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH
BAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 AM PST SUNDAY...BASED OFF OF SATELLITE
AND RADAR DID A FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON TO REDUCED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WERE ALSO REDUCED.
SPC NOW HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MAIN RISK STRONG WINDS. HRRR SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TODAY GREATLY INCREASING AS EVENING
APPROACHES. LINES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INDICATED NEAR OR IN THE
BAY AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. NAM THEN SHOWS SECOND ROUND
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW GOES THROUGH. SMALL
HAIL VERY LIKELY WITH CELLS AS WELL.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM THAT BLASTED
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCED
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
THAT SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UNSTABLE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR AREA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE SUBSIDED AND
THE FLOODING THREAT HAS EASED...FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...SPREADING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
REGION ONCE AGAIN. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM FORECASTING CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG NEAR OUR COAST BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE ONE THAT JUST MOVED
THROUGH...AND SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE LESS
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WITH SATURATED SOILS
AND STREAMS AND CREEKS THAT WON`T HAVE TIME TO FULLY SUBSIDE.
PLUS...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM MEANS WE
COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION BURSTS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH BAY AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
RENEWED FLOODING STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA STARING AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
4 AM PST MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SINKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...A PLUME
OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH WARM ADVECTION
TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THAT MOISTURE PLUME IS THEN FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SAGGING GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD SEE SOME VERY LARGE RAIN TOTALS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE SOUTH.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:36 AM PST SUNDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONF IS LOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. PRECIP WILL
RETURN AFTER 00Z FOR KSTS AND 03-06Z FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS. A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
WITH LOWERED VSBY/CIGS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE TSTORM CHC AT TERMINAL LOCATIONS...BUT CONF IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OVERALL CONF IS MODERATE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR COND WITH CIGS IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WITH A
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OR GREATER AFTER 23Z. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUSTY WINDS 23-09Z TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS
3-4K FT RANGE. CIGS AND PRECIP RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 04:17 AM PST SUNDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 11
TO 13 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14 SEC. WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS STILL EXPECT TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MOST COASTAL LOCATION REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SPOT NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH SURF WARNING. SINCE IT IS
BORDERLINE...WILL LEAVE THE ADV AS IS FOR NOW. EITHER
WAY...CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME RATHER ROUGH LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:34 AM PST SUNDAY...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WESTERLY SWELLS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PEAKING ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...ALL AREAS 4 PM TO 4 AM
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AREAS
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 PM
GLW...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
930 AM PST SUN MAR 6 2016
...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND RENEWED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF BY LATE MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH
BAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 AM PST SUNDAY...BASED OFF OF SATELLITE
AND RADAR DID A FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON TO REDUCED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WERE ALSO REDUCED.
SPC NOW HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MAIN RISK STRONG WINDS. HRRR SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TODAY GREATLY INCREASING AS EVENING
APPROACHES. LINES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INDICATED NEAR OR IN THE
BAY AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. NAM THEN SHOWS SECOND ROUND
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW GOES THROUGH. SMALL
HAIL VERY LIKELY WITH CELLS AS WELL.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM THAT BLASTED
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCED
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
THAT SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UNSTABLE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR AREA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE SUBSIDED AND
THE FLOODING THREAT HAS EASED...FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...SPREADING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
REGION ONCE AGAIN. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM FORECASTING CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG NEAR OUR COAST BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE ONE THAT JUST MOVED
THROUGH...AND SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE LESS
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WITH SATURATED SOILS
AND STREAMS AND CREEKS THAT WON`T HAVE TIME TO FULLY SUBSIDE.
PLUS...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM MEANS WE
COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION BURSTS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH BAY AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
RENEWED FLOODING STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA STARING AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
4 AM PST MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SINKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...A PLUME
OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH WARM ADVECTION
TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THAT MOISTURE PLUME IS THEN FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SAGGING GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD SEE SOME VERY LARGE RAIN TOTALS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE SOUTH.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PST SUNDAY...STORM SYSTEM PUSHED
THROUGH EARLIER TONIGHT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY. THERE IS A CHC FOR A
PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONF IS LOW. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS INCREASE. PRECIP WILL RETURN AFTER 00Z FOR KSTS AND 03-06Z
FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSS EARLY MONDAY WITH LOWERED VSBY/CIGS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS RATHER IMPRESSIVE TSTORM CHC AT TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...BUT CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. OVERALL CONF IS MODERATE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR COND WITH CIGS IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WITH A
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUST 35 KT OR GREATER AFTER 23Z. AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUSTY WINDS 23-09Z TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 3-4K FT
RANGE. SAME AS UP NORTH...CIGS AND PRECIP RETURN LATER TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 04:17 AM PST SUNDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 11
TO 13 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14 SEC. WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS STILL EXPECT TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MOST COASTAL LOCATION REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SPOT NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH SURF WARNING. SINCE IT IS
BORDERLINE...WILL LEAVE THE ADV AS IS FOR NOW. EITHER
WAY...CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME RATHER ROUGH LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PST SUNDAY...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WESTERLY SWELLS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PEAKING ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...ALL AREAS 4 PM TO 4 AM
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AREAS
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ALL AREAS 6 PM TO 4 AM
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 PM
GLW...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY TODAY. PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WILL BE
QUITE MODEST. A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DISPLACING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THE JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM IS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA.
THE RIDGE IS CAUSING A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A LOT DIFFLUENCE OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS OF THIS WRITING...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE L.A. BASIN AND CONTINUING OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM IS A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A LOT OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OFF AS MUCH AS THEY WOULD OTHERWISE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME VERY WEAK
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EMBEDDED IN THOSE CLOUDS TRACKING ACROSS LA
PAZ...NORTHERN MARICOPA...GILA COUNTY...AND POINTS NORTH. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
WHICH HAS KEPT MIXING GOING. AS A SIDE NOTE...THOSE WINDS HAVE
ADVECTED HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INLAND AND THE BEST QG FORCING TRACKING JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THERE IS ALSO RAIN SHADOWING OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO CONTEND
WITH WHICH WILL PUT A DENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS THE FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS MODEST
TODAY/TONIGHT. SREF DEPICTS A TINY BIT OF CAPE BRUSHING OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MERIT MENTION OF T-STORMS. WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOST NOTICEABLY FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS FOR US. WINDS LOOK TO BE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN OUR MOST DUST PRONE AREA OF PINAL COUNTY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY BUT UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WILL CAUSE
IT TO DIG SOUTHWARD ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICAL FORCING AFFECTS COASTAL CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND
FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS
TIME SUCH THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA...BUT NOT GREAT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH DECREASING CHANCES
EASTWARD...OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE PATTERN OFTEN IS. AN EXCEPTION WOULD
BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. PRECIP AMOUNTS...IF
ANY...WILL BE QUITE MODEST. CAPE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO MEAGER TO
MENTION T-STORMS. POPS TRAIL OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AND END
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME NICE
ADDITIONAL COOLING COMES IN WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
FINALLY DROPPING BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND. A WEAKENING TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS
DEPICTS SOME VERY LIGHT QPF BUT ECMWF AND GEM DO NOT. NAEFS POPS
REMAIN LOW. NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS TIME TO MENTION PRECIP
OUTSIDE OF JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL MONUMENT AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE COOLER
TEMPS GOING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR
PHOENIX TERMINALS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE TRADITIONAL
EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO WESTERLY MUCH EARLIER
THAN USUAL (MID TO LATE MORNING) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT. GUSTS IN A 20-30KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE THICK CLOUDS ABOVE THE 12K FT LEVEL
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG AND GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORCE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AT KIPL TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FROPA AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONLY MODERATE. KBLH WILL LIKELY SEE
SPEEDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DIRECTIONS FAVORING THE
W/SW. GUSTS MAY FALL IN A 30-35KT RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND THE 6K FT LEVEL MAY
ALSO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
EVEN MORE COOLING ARRIVES MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM AFFECTS
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO THOUGH THERE WILL BE A DECENT
CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST OF THERE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER MONDAY WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY BREEZINESS ON TUESDAY...LESS SO ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME
BREEZINESS RETURNING FRIDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. AFTER A TEMPORARY INCREASE MONDAY...HUMIDITIES DECLINE
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM VALUES DIPPING BELOW 15
PERCENT MOST PLACES BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY REMAINS GOOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ020-021-025-026.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1034 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the area tonight with
heavy rain, strong winds, and localized flooding. Additional rain,
along with heavy snow in the mountains, is on tap for Sunday,
Monday, and late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Strong storm system moving through NorCal this evening with cold
front highlighted by low topped squall line. Wind gusts to 50 mph
causing scattered power outages have occurred in many spots this
evening. Rainfall amounts near 1.00 inches for most valley
locations with isolated amounts up to 3.00 inches over the 24 hour
period...2 to 6 inches over the Sierra. 2 to 3 inches fell over
the Lake county burn scars...which prompted a flash flood warning.
Snow levels are running between 5500-6000 feet and will fall to
4000 by morning. Heavy snow with rates of 2-3 per hour will be
likely over the Sierra overnight with hazardous travel for
interstate 80 and Highway 50.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH INCREASING WIND AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
VALLEY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS PRESENTLY ENHANCING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAY AREA WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW INSIDE OF 130W, AND
WITH ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT, IT WILL MOVE ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL BY
MID TO LATE EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE THUNDER. STRONG ASCENT AND WIDE SWATH OF DEEP TPW (IN
EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES) AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULT IN EXTREME WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT ANOMALIES THIS EVENING (> 7 SD ON NAEFS MEAN
IVT!), SO HEAVY RAIN NEARLY CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE BURN SCARS AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF
FLOOD ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS.
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRESNO TO
MEDFORD GRADIENT IS NOW AROUND 15 MBS, AND THE HRRR FORECASTS IT
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 19-20 MBS BY 02Z AS A 992 MB SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WIND EVENT EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 925 MB WINDS FORECAST TO REACH NEARLY 70 KTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE
LIKELY.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA PASSES LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW ALONG THE CREST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FOOT
OR TWO POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 5000 FEET. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS PROFILERS INDICATE THE SNOW LEVEL IS STILL
ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TAPERS BY 12Z SUNDAY, THEN PICKS UP AGAIN
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BREAK IN THE WEATHER LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Upper ridging over the area Wednesday shifts east allowing some
overrunning precip. GFS keeps this precip mainly north of the
forecast area while the EC spreads it over most of the CWA.
Forecast is a blend of these Wednesday.
Models in better agreement Thursday into Friday and advertise
another atmospheric river dropping slowly south through Interior
NorCal. QPF values look to be significant during this period. By
Saturday, forecast confidence lowers as EC returns upper ridging
and drier weather, while the GFS keeps moist cyclonic flow and
showers, along with strong wind, especially in orographically
favored mountains.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...
Frontal system will impact NorCal tonight into Sunday morning.
Expect widespread MVFR/IFR conditions during frontal passage with
local LIFR over mountains. Strong southwest winds aloft with
moderate to strong southerly winds in the valley. Wind gusts
ranging 30 to 50 kts...locally higher over ridgetops. Winds are
beginning to decrease in the valley as of 06z, but still gusty in
some areas. JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM PST Sunday for Clear Lake/Southern
Lake County-Motherlode-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST
OF TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND...STRONGER AND
COLDER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT REIGNITING SHOWERS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 9 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OUT AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 06/00Z KNKX SOUNDING
INDICATED WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL LEVELS WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 300 MB. AN IMPRESSIVE PW VALUE OF 0.99" WAS
ALSO NOTED. 24-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER
ONSHORE WITH SAN-TPH STRENGTHENING TO +9.4 MB.
SO FAR THIS EVENING...RADAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BENIGN. HOWEVER...THE
00Z WRF...00Z NAM4...AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN ALL AGREE IN
DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
06/0600Z-0900Z TONIGHT. THESE MODELS PROG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BRING GENERALLY
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH A HALF IN THE MOUNTAINS...AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE UPPER DESERTS...AND NEXT TO NOTHING TO THE
LOWER DESERTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET...SO
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULDN`T BE AN IMPACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A COLDER AND STRONGER STORM
WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING BETWEEN
-25C AND -27C. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GFS GENERATES 100-300 J/KG
SURFACE CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COAST AND VALLEYS. UNSTABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. T-STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL FROM THIS SECOND
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH NEAR THE
COAST TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONE THIRD INCH OR LESS IN
THE UPPER DESERTS AND ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWER DESERTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET MONDAY AND 4000 TO 4500
FEET MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000
FEET WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 TO 7500 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS BUILD A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
060430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS UNDER 2000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND FORM INLAND WITH THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ONSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 06/0600Z WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MORE COMMON.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
TRANSITION TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER 06/2000Z SHOWER WILL BE COMING TO AN END...WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KTS...AND CEILINGS WILL BE
LIFTING TO AROUND 3000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AFTER 07/1200Z
MONDAY EXPECT MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.
MOUNTAINS...WEST SLOPES AND PASSES... 1500 FEET ABOVE MSL AND HIGHER
WILL HAVE OBSCURED DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG AND PERIODS RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON 06/2200Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK AGAIN UNTIL
MONDAY AROUND 07/1200Z WHEN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWERED CEILINGS.
MOUNTAINS...EAST SLOPES...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. WSW WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT AFTER 06/04000Z
SFC GUSTS 35-50 KT OVER THE RIDGES AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES
THROUGH 07/1200Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED STG UDDFS...LLWS...AND ROTORS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST THE MTNS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 830 PM...8-11 FT WEST SWELL SOUTHEAST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A 4-7 FT SWELL ELSEWHERE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A LARGER WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY...PEAKING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AT 14-18 FT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER MONDAY
FROM 30-35 KT WHEN A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE WINDS AND SWELL
WILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS NEAR 20 FT SOUTHEAST OF SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND ON MONDAY...WITH 10 TO 15 FT COMBINED SEAS ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. RAIN LIKELY MONDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.BEACHES...
830 PM...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF WARNING THAT
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 4 PM TUESDAY.
A 6-10 FT WEST SWELL FROM 280 DEGREES WILL GENERATE 4-7 FT SURF WITH
LOCAL SETS TO 8 FT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A 12
TO 18 FT SWELL FROM 285 DEGREES WITH A PERIOD OF 13-15 SEC WILL
BRING EVEN HIGHER SURF. PEAK SURF WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SURF FROM 8-15 FT...AND SETS AS HIGH AS 18 FEET
IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY THROUGH
NOON TUESDAY FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY LARGE SURF...GUSTY WINDS...AND PROJECTED HIGH
TIDES NEAR 6 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER LATE TUESDAY.
FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE HIGH SURF WARNING AND THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY (LAXCFWSGX)...AND THE SURF FORECAST (LAXSRFSGX).
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON PST TUESDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PIERCE/MOEDE/ALBRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1040 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Mostly sunny skies prevail across central and southeast Illinois
this morning, with 16z/10am temperatures mainly in the lower to
middle 40s. As high pressure continues to shift off to the east,
increasing southerly winds will be noted as the day goes on. Winds
are already gusting to between 20 and 25 mph and may gust to
around 30 mph this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens.
High clouds will also be on the increase from the west, with skies
becoming partly to mostly cloudy toward sunset. Thanks to the
southerly winds and a good amount of sunshine, afternoon high
temperatures will climb well into the 50s. Current forecast has a
good handle on the situation, so other than a quick update to
remove morning fog wording across the SE, no major changes are
anticipated at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
The 08z/2am surface analysis shows the surface ridge axis extending
from N to S across far eastern IL, with a warm frontal boundary
developing along the Missouri River into the northern Plains. Low
clouds are lingering under the surface ridge in eastern Illinois,
but they should dissipate shortly before sunrise.
As the surface high departs farther to the east today, southerly
winds will develop. Increasing pressure gradient and mixing of
strong mid level winds to the surface will help produce wind gusts
in the 25 to 30 mph range at times this afternoon. The strengthening
southerly flow will also bring the warm frontal clouds into central
Illinois, creating mostly cloudy conditions before the end of the
day. Despite the limited afternoon sunshine, warm advection breezes
will help high temps climb 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Highs will range from around 50 toward Danville, to near 60 degrees
around Jacksonville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Upper pattern currently in transition to a warmer and wetter
regime, allowing highs in the 60s much of the week past today.
One trough was approaching the East Coast early this morning, with
another sharpening trough just off the West Coast. This latter one
will continue to dig and close off a low over southern California by
Monday evening, with the upper low slowly drifting over northern and
central Mexico until late week. This track will produce an
impressive surge of moisture in a couple days, coming up from near
the Yucatan Peninsula into Louisiana. GFS progs indicate PWAT values
approaching 1.4-1.5 inches advecting into southeast Illinois by
Wednesday, close to maximum climatological values for this time of
year.
Have made some adjustments to the PoP`s for tonight, focusing more
on the period west of I-55 after midnight as forecast soundings are
pretty dry below 600 mb through the evening. This area of showers
will increase to our west in the evening as the low level jet ramps
up, then spread northeast. Most of the evening model guidance dries
out the area by Monday afternoon, with a period of dry conditions
through the evening. PoP`s ramp up again after midnight Monday night
across the western CWA as the nocturnal jet increases again,
associated with a surface low tracking across Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota.
Main period of concern for heavy rains will be Tuesday evening
through Wednesday night. The surface low should be near or just
north of Lake Superior by late Tuesday evening, with a cold front
extending southwest toward a low over southeast Oklahoma. First
surge of heavier precipitation will ride northeast along the
boundary, which will be in the general vicinity of the Illinois
River around midday Wednesday. The GFS is a tad faster than the
ECMWF in pushing this boundary across most of the forecast area by
late Wednesday evening, but still a fair amount of uncertainty in
how much and how long it hangs up over the area. Have spread the
categorical PoP`s (around 80%) as far northwest as the Illinois
River Tuesday night, and continue to keep them going east of I-55
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Potential exists for a few inches of
rain south of the boundary with the rich moisture feed. The
precipitation will be cutting off from the west Thursday morning as
an upper wave approaches.
Significant model differences in the longer range, as the upper low
over Mexico weakens and lifts northeast. The ECMWF shears it out
faster (over southern Texas), allowing some upper ridging which
keeps the first part of the weekend dry. The GFS gets the low`s
remnants all the way into southeast Illinois by late Sunday, with
the earlier frontal boundary being pushed back northward late this
week and featuring much more precipitation along it. Blended model
guidance initialization is drawing in more of the GFS scenario
than desired, so have backed off on some of the PoP`s by about
10-15% and removed the likely PoP`s on Saturday for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Clouds have cleared from the TAF sites early this morning.
Residual boundary layer moisture near CMI has allowed MVFR fog to
develop. We can`t rule out a brief spike down to IFR or LIFR fog
at CMI. The latest HRRR forecast shows better chances of dense
fog farther to the southeast of CMI, so will keep MVFR prevailing
until the fog dissipates by 14z. The remainder of today will
feature increasing mid and high clouds ahead of a developing warm
front. Precipitation will hold off until later tonight, as the
lower levels saturate with time. A few light showers will be
mainly confined to areas along and west of I-55. Therefore, VCSH
was included after 10z tonight for BMI, SPI, and PIA. VFR
conditions should prevail through 12z tomorrow morn, for the most
part.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
605 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
The 08z/2am surface analysis shows the surface ridge axis extending
from N to S across far eastern IL, with a warm frontal boundary
developing along the Missouri River into the northern Plains. Low
clouds are lingering under the surface ridge in eastern Illinois,
but they should dissipate shortly before sunrise.
As the surface high departs farther to the east today, southerly
winds will develop. Increasing pressure gradient and mixing of
strong mid level winds to the surface will help produce wind gusts
in the 25 to 30 mph range at times this afternoon. The strengthening
southerly flow will also bring the warm frontal clouds into central
Illinois, creating mostly cloudy conditions before the end of the
day. Despite the limited afternoon sunshine, warm advection breezes
will help high temps climb 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Highs will range from around 50 toward Danville, to near 60 degrees
around Jacksonville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Upper pattern currently in transition to a warmer and wetter
regime, allowing highs in the 60s much of the week past today.
One trough was approaching the East Coast early this morning, with
another sharpening trough just off the West Coast. This latter one
will continue to dig and close off a low over southern California by
Monday evening, with the upper low slowly drifting over northern and
central Mexico until late week. This track will produce an
impressive surge of moisture in a couple days, coming up from near
the Yucatan Peninsula into Louisiana. GFS progs indicate PWAT values
approaching 1.4-1.5 inches advecting into southeast Illinois by
Wednesday, close to maximum climatological values for this time of
year.
Have made some adjustments to the PoP`s for tonight, focusing more
on the period west of I-55 after midnight as forecast soundings are
pretty dry below 600 mb through the evening. This area of showers
will increase to our west in the evening as the low level jet ramps
up, then spread northeast. Most of the evening model guidance dries
out the area by Monday afternoon, with a period of dry conditions
through the evening. PoP`s ramp up again after midnight Monday night
across the western CWA as the nocturnal jet increases again,
associated with a surface low tracking across Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota.
Main period of concern for heavy rains will be Tuesday evening
through Wednesday night. The surface low should be near or just
north of Lake Superior by late Tuesday evening, with a cold front
extending southwest toward a low over southeast Oklahoma. First
surge of heavier precipitation will ride northeast along the
boundary, which will be in the general vicinity of the Illinois
River around midday Wednesday. The GFS is a tad faster than the
ECMWF in pushing this boundary across most of the forecast area by
late Wednesday evening, but still a fair amount of uncertainty in
how much and how long it hangs up over the area. Have spread the
categorical PoP`s (around 80%) as far northwest as the Illinois
River Tuesday night, and continue to keep them going east of I-55
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Potential exists for a few inches of
rain south of the boundary with the rich moisture feed. The
precipitation will be cutting off from the west Thursday morning as
an upper wave approaches.
Significant model differences in the longer range, as the upper low
over Mexico weakens and lifts northeast. The ECMWF shears it out
faster (over southern Texas), allowing some upper ridging which
keeps the first part of the weekend dry. The GFS gets the low`s
remnants all the way into southeast Illinois by late Sunday, with
the earlier frontal boundary being pushed back northward late this
week and featuring much more precipitation along it. Blended model
guidance initialization is drawing in more of the GFS scenario
than desired, so have backed off on some of the PoP`s by about
10-15% and removed the likely PoP`s on Saturday for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Clouds have cleared from the TAF sites early this morning.
Residual boundary layer moisture near CMI has allowed MVFR fog to
develop. We can`t rule out a brief spike down to IFR or LIFR fog
at CMI. The latest HRRR forecast shows better chances of dense
fog farther to the southeast of CMI, so will keep MVFR prevailing
until the fog dissipates by 14z. The remainder of today will
feature increasing mid and high clouds ahead of a developing warm
front. Precipitation will hold off until later tonight, as the
lower levels saturate with time. A few light showers will be
mainly confined to areas along and west of I-55. Therefore, VCSH
was included after 10z tonight for BMI, SPI, and PIA. VFR
conditions should prevail through 12z tomorrow morn, for the most
part.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Clouds continue to slowly decrease from west to east this evening
as weak high pressure settles over the area. HRRR continues to
suggest the band of clouds will continue to decrease in coverage
over the rest of this evening. The combination of a clear sky,
light winds and residual moisture from previous days precipitation
may lead to some patchy fog over parts of our area, but coverage
appears to be too limited to include in the forecast at this
time. As the high shifts off to our east on Sunday, southerly
winds will increase during the day with gusts up to 25 mph in the
afternoon, especially across west central Illinois, which should
help get our warm up underway. Other than some tweaking of the
sky condition and hourly temperatures this evening, the current
forecast has a good handle on the late evening/overnight trends.
As a result, no early evening update will be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Despite passage of a short-wave trough and its associated cold
front, clouds continue to blanket central Illinois this afternoon.
In fact, 20z/2pm visible satellite imagery shows continuous cloud
cover upstream into Wisconsin and the eastern half of Iowa as well.
Based on the trajectory of the clouds, the KILX CWA will remain on
the southwest periphery of the cloud shield through at least early
evening. HRRR has been consistently showing the clouds partially
dissipating from the W/SW toward sunset, resulting in mostly clear
skies across much of the area by mid to late evening. Think this
may be a bit too aggressive with the clearing, so have slowed trends
from previous forecasts. Have started the evening with mostly
cloudy skies everywhere except across the far southwest around
Jacksonville where partly to mostly clear conditions will prevail.
As per the latest HRRR, have then cleared things out from west to
east through the evening, but have maintained mostly cloudy skies
northeast of I-74 until well after midnight. Due to the clearing
skies and diminishing winds, have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a
couple of degrees, with frosty overnight lows in the middle to upper
20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Mild temperatures and wet weather will be the primary features for
much of the upcoming forecast period through next Saturday.
For Sunday, brisk southerly winds around 15 mph and gusts around 25
mph will set up by afternoon west of I-57 as a corridor of strong
moist southwesterly flow sets up over the Plains. This will initiate
showers and a few thunderstorms, potentially creeping eastward into
west-central IL Sunday night. Highs should reach the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees in Springfield and Jacksonville. Mild lows in the
mid 40s expected Sunday night as precipitable water around 1 inch,
or approaching 99th percentile for this time of year, plumes over
central IL.
On Monday, southerly winds expected to increase to 15-20 mph and
gust to 25-30 mph. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s as
warm advection continues, and rich precipitable water continues to
stream over Illinois. Still, weak forcing appears it will result in
modest precipitation chances and amounts, mainly I-72 northward.
The moisture plume looks to remain in the vicinity through midweek
as a frontal boundary lingers just to the northwest, and a series of
disturbances track along the front bringing periods of heavier rain.
Some uncertainty remain in the location of the front through midweek
and this will modulate the exact timing and location of
precipitation through midweek, however likely to categorical (80%+)
chance of precipitation included in the forecast for Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, and current precipitation amounts 2-2.5
inches I-72 southward expected through this period, with 0.5 to 2.0
inches to the north. Instability pattern indicates occasional
thunderstorms a possibility. A hydrologic outlook remains in effect
to address the heavy rain concern during this period. Highs through
midweek expected to remain mild, from around 60 to 65 degrees.
Next weekend...a cut-off low that should be meandering over
Mexico midweek is progged to eject northeast toward central IL.
Unfortunately, the timing and track of this feature is highly
uncertain as evidenced by a variety of differing model and
ensemble solutions available at this time. This feature will have
impacts on the position of the frontal boundary, temperatures, and
precipitation for central IL. With the front position still a
significant question, PoP`s generally remain in place over most of
the forecast area into Saturday. High temperatures forecast from
around 60 to 65, but this will be subject to change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Pesky band of mostly MVFR cigs continues to slowly erode on the
west and eastern edges of the cloud shield making for a rather
difficult forecast for the overnight hours. Short term high
resolution forecast soundings continue to show a gradual decrease
in moisture in the 2500-3500 foot level over the next 3 to 6
hours. With a steep subsidence inversion in place trapping the
low level moisture, models have been too aggressive with the
clearing across the forecast area. Last few runs of the rapid
refresh model now backing off on any clearing taking place in
CMI, but at the same time, satellite data indicating significant
breaks starting to develop to the south and north of CMI over
the past couple of hours. Will continue with the gradual decrease
in clouds overnight with VFR conditions expected during the day
Sunday.
Light and variable winds tonight will turn southerly on Sunday
and increase in speed to between 12 and 17 kts with a few gusts
up to 25 kts in the afternoon, especially across our western
TAF sites (PIA and SPI). Borderline non-convective LLWS setup
for tomorrow night with 925 mb winds around 45 kts, but sfc
wind gusts are expected to hold up enough overnight to limit
the impact of the stronger winds aloft. So for this forecast
issuance, will not include LLWS Sunday night/Monday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
942 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CA/
NORTHERN BAJA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS DRIFTING E
OVER EASTERN CO. DOWNSTAIRS A DRY LINE CURVED FROM AROUND KHLC THRU
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN KPTT & KDDC TO JUST W OF KGAG. ACROSS THE KICT
NEIGHBORHOOD...SLY 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT MID &
UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN KS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPED ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE LOCATED FROM KHYS TO KP23. THIS ISOLATED SUPERCELL
CONTINUES TO RACE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS KSLN. NOT EXPECTING
THIS STORM TO STAY STRONG OR SEVERE MUCH LONGER AS IT MOVES INTO A
MORE STABLE SURFACE BASED AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL KS.
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TO KEEP IT A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT HAIL THREAT WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY PEA SIZE.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CURRENTLY OVER SE
KS INTO WRN MO. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIDING THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS IN ERN OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX TO
MOVE NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SE KS LATE TONIGHT. COULD
SEE A LULL IN THE CONVECTION FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GOING FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS THIS AREA MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUE MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) EXTREME FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL ALONG & W OF K-14 UNTIL 7 PM CST.
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG & JUST E OF DRY LINE THIS
EVENING.
TONIGHT:
THE FIRST 2 ISSUES ARE THE RED FLAG WARNING & WIND ADVISORY THAT
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS & MOST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG & W OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STRUGGLING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREAS WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAGS HOISTED AS SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN STIFF THIS EVENING.
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SW FLANK OF OUR CWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OVER COMANCHE...BARBER & PRATT
COUNTIES ~6 PM. FOR NOW THE CAP LOCATED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER IS
TIGHT OVER OUR SWRN-MOST COUNTIES...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE FROM
EASTERN OK TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/SD BORDER A "PACIFIC"
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TOWARD CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
THE GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST
KS.
TUE-WED NIGHT:
AS THE FAR SWRN MID-UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK E TOWARD THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN W TX/TX
PANHANDLE REGION. THE FRONT WOULD STALL THEN UNDERGO WARM FRONTO-
GENESIS ON TUE. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING N THEN NW ACROSS EASTERN KS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING FURTHER INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. AS THE SFC CYCLONE PUSHES E ACROSS E TX...WIDESPREAD
RAINS WOULD WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE WITH SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN
THE BENEFICIARY OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.
THU & THU NIGHT:
THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREE ON IT`S TRACK WITH GFS FURTHER N
OVER E TX THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT POSITIONED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE. THIS WOULD OF COURSE HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW. CONSIDERING THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE
GULF TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SLOWER ECMWF IS PREFERRED. AS
SUCH WRAP-AROUND RAINS WOULD SPREAD FURTHER W ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WITH SOMEWHAT OF ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE GREATER UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD RESIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
VERY INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST AS MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...WITH EVEN SOME VCTS OVER SE KS.
TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER CIGS (WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE) IS A DRYLINE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KRSL TO KP23. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE STREAMING TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A GRADUAL BUILD DOWN OF THE STRATUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BUILD DOWN WILL LEAD TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
FOR KICT/KHUT AND PROBABLY KCNU AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE 09-
15Z/TUE TIME FRAME. WILL ALSO SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS
WELL OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR BOTH THE KICT/KCNU TAFS
OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE
WEST OF BOTH THE KICT AND KHUT TAF LOCATION....OR POSSIBLY SW IN OK.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSRA ACTIVITY REACHING KICT OR KHUT IS LOW...SO
WILL NOT MENTION THIS CHANCE.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE CONTINUED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER INDICES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE WORK-WEEK. WILL HOWEVER
KEEP THE RED FLAGS HOISTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135
UNTIL 7 PM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 66 49 62 / 30 50 50 40
HUTCHINSON 54 66 45 62 / 20 30 30 20
NEWTON 55 65 47 61 / 20 50 50 40
ELDORADO 57 66 49 62 / 30 70 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 66 51 63 / 40 70 60 50
RUSSELL 45 65 41 62 / 10 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 46 64 42 62 / 10 10 20 0
SALINA 54 67 45 62 / 20 20 30 10
MCPHERSON 54 65 45 61 / 20 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 60 68 54 63 / 70 90 80 80
CHANUTE 59 68 53 63 / 60 90 80 80
IOLA 58 66 52 62 / 60 90 80 80
PARSONS-KPPF 59 68 53 63 / 60 90 80 80
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
617 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CA/
NORTHERN BAJA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS DRIFTING E
OVER EASTERN CO. DOWNSTAIRS A DRY LINE CURVED FROM AROUND KHLC THRU
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN KPTT & KDDC TO JUST W OF KGAG. ACROSS THE KICT
NEIGHBORHOOD...SLY 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT MID &
UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) EXTREME FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL ALONG & W OF K-14 UNTIL 7 PM CST.
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG & JUST E OF DRY LINE THIS
EVENING.
TONIGHT:
THE FIRST 2 ISSUES ARE THE RED FLAG WARNING & WIND ADVISORY THAT
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS & MOST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG & W OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STRUGGLING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREAS WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAGS HOISTED AS SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN STIFF THIS EVENING.
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SW FLANK OF OUR CWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OVER COMANCHE...BARBER & PRATT
COUNTIES ~6 PM. FOR NOW THE CAP LOCATED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER IS
TIGHT OVER OUR SWRN-MOST COUNTIES...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE FROM
EASTERN OK TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/SD BORDER A "PACIFIC"
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TOWARD CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
THE GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST
KS.
TUE-WED NIGHT:
AS THE FAR SWRN MID-UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK E TOWARD THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN W TX/TX
PANHANDLE REGION. THE FRONT WOULD STALL THEN UNDERGO WARM FRONTO-
GENESIS ON TUE. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING N THEN NW ACROSS EASTERN KS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING FURTHER INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. AS THE SFC CYCLONE PUSHES E ACROSS E TX...WIDESPREAD
RAINS WOULD WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE WITH SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN
THE BENEFICIARY OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.
THU & THU NIGHT:
THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREE ON IT`S TRACK WITH GFS FURTHER N
OVER E TX THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT POSITIONED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE. THIS WOULD OF COURSE HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW. CONSIDERING THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE
GULF TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SLOWER ECMWF IS PREFERRED. AS
SUCH WRAP-AROUND RAINS WOULD SPREAD FURTHER W ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WITH SOMEWHAT OF ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE GREATER UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD RESIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
VERY INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST AS MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...WITH EVEN SOME VCTS OVER SE KS.
TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER CIGS (WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE) IS A DRYLINE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KRSL TO KP23. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE STREAMING TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A GRADUAL BUILD DOWN OF THE STRATUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BUILD DOWN WILL LEAD TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
FOR KICT/KHUT AND PROBABLY KCNU AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE 09-
15Z/TUE TIME FRAME. WILL ALSO SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS
WELL OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR BOTH THE KICT/KCNU TAFS
OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE
WEST OF BOTH THE KICT AND KHUT TAF LOCATION....OR POSSIBLY SW IN OK.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSRA ACTIVITY REACHING KICT OR KHUT IS LOW...SO
WILL NOT MENTION THIS CHANCE.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE CONTINUED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER INDICES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE WORK-WEEK. WILL HOWEVER
KEEP THE RED FLAGS HOISTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135
UNTIL 7 PM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 66 49 62 / 30 50 50 40
HUTCHINSON 54 66 45 62 / 20 30 30 20
NEWTON 55 65 47 61 / 20 50 50 40
ELDORADO 57 66 49 62 / 30 70 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 66 51 63 / 40 70 60 50
RUSSELL 45 65 41 62 / 10 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 46 64 42 62 / 10 10 20 0
SALINA 54 67 45 62 / 20 20 30 10
MCPHERSON 54 65 45 61 / 20 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 60 68 54 63 / 70 90 80 80
CHANUTE 59 68 53 63 / 60 90 80 80
IOLA 58 66 52 62 / 60 90 80 80
PARSONS-KPPF 59 68 53 63 / 60 90 80 80
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091-092.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
257 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE WARM AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL MIXING TAPPING INTO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND PUSHING WIND SPEEDS WELL INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT GREAT OF A SIGNAL. ANOTHER WARM AND VERY
WINDY DAY ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MONDAY ACROSS
KANSAS.
MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AND FEEL THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY-LINE BEING LIMITED. ALSO
WOULD THINK SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT OR REMAIN
MORE SHALLOW DUE TOO THE VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
GFS/ECMWF MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM KANSAS THIS PERIOD. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
PREDICTABILITY OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION AREAS SPREADING THIS FAR
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST POSITIONING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS. THEY COULD BE A BIT TOO
BULLISH WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FIELDS.
JAKUB
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
MAIN STORY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY...AS A LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 40-50 KTS OVERNIGHT...HELD ONTO
INHERITED LLWS THROUGH EARLY TO MID-MORNING SUNDAY...WITH THE BASE
OF THE LLWS AROUND 1000 FT AGL PER RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS.
STOUT/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BETWEEN 14-17Z SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 24-28 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...SHOULD SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY
BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
ICT-HUT-SLN...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR LOWER TOWARD 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
EVEN THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WONT BE AT EXTREMELY LOW
VALUES...THE WEATHER CONDITIONS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO FEB 18TH AND ON THAT DAY THE REGION EXPERIENCED
NUMEROUS LARGE GRASS FIRES. LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF KANSAS SINCE THAT DATE. WE FEEL THAT THIS LONG PERSISTENT DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG SOUTH
WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WILL NOT
LIMIT THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR VERY DANGEROUS GRASSLAND FIRE
CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. THIS IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED
BY OUR EXTREME READINGS IN OUR GFDI INDEX...AND GOING RED FLAG
WARNING IS WARRANTED.
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS
AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR BEHIND
EASTWARD MOVING DRY LINE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX EASTWARD.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 59 75 55 / 20 10 10 30
HUTCHINSON 77 59 78 52 / 20 10 10 20
NEWTON 76 59 75 55 / 20 10 10 30
ELDORADO 74 59 73 57 / 20 10 10 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 75 59 73 58 / 20 10 10 40
RUSSELL 81 56 83 45 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 80 57 83 46 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 77 59 77 52 / 20 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 76 59 77 53 / 20 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 75 59 71 60 / 10 20 20 50
CHANUTE 74 58 71 59 / 10 20 20 50
IOLA 74 58 71 59 / 10 20 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 74 59 71 60 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING IT QUIET THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WEEK AND THAT IS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE TONIGHT. THE ONLY ITEM OF
INTEREST TONIGHT HAS BEEN THE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AS USUAL THE
DEEPER VALLEYS ARE DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TEMP WISE. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ALSO SOME BREAKS SEEN ON THE
IR SAT. ALL THAT SAID...GOING TO KEEP THE TEMP SPLITS GOING. NOT
ONLY THAT BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE COULD SEE
CONTINUED CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING...AND THIS WOULD
ONLY FURTHER REINFORCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY WITH SAT DATA AND
TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS
SHIFTED EAST. WE ARE IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND THAT WAS EVIDENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN UPPER 60S. IT LOOK LIKE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SPLIT TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NOT AS PREVALENT
AS LAST NIGHT. JUST GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW IN PLACE...BUT
DEEPER VALLEYS WILL STILL FIND A WAY TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S. OVERALL JUST MORE MINOR UPDATE TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. KENTUCKY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING IN WARMER
AIR AND SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. THIS RISE WAS DESPITE
ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY AS A HIGH LAYER OF RATHER THICK CLOUDS
MOVED OVER THE STATE. AT 3 PM...READINGS HAD MADE IT TO THE LOW
AND MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OR SO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING DEEP AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...KEEPING THE RIDGE STRONG OVER
THE AREA LONGER. KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM MEANING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR OUR AREA. WHILE SOME SHORTWAVES...LIKE THE ONE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...THE
STRONGER ONES WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THEY THIN AND BREAK UP HEADING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS...AND SOME MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
SHOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAY THIS MORNING. EVEN SO...IN
GENERAL...A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MORE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS WITH LESSER DIFFERENCES ELSEWHERE. AGAIN
WOULD EXPECT THE DIURNAL T CURVE TO BE SHARP AFTER SUNSET FOR
THESE VALLEYS AS THEY QUICKLY DROP OFF. TUESDAY WILL BE AN EVEN
NICER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TAKING OFF TO THE LOW AND MID 70S BY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER RELATIVE TERRAIN BASED TEMPERATURE SPLIT...MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE
FOR FOG EITHER NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TONIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DISTINCTION...ESPECIALLY
EAST. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY KEPT THEM ZEROED OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO WANT TO BUDGE. IN FACT...THE
FEATURE THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE HIGH EAST IS SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIP THROUGH KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ULTIMATELY FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. SO...UNTIL THESE MODELS
CAN LATCH ONTO THE FEATURE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EVOLUTION OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS...EXPECT CONTINUED DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONSISTS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WHILE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED EAST...IT REMAINS IN
CONTROL. THAT SAID WE ARE IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THAT SURFACE
HIGH SO GENERAL SW FLOW HAS KICKED IN. HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY ISSUES WITH CIGS OR VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR HIGH
CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY THREAT. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE WILL BE DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAKE IT CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME LLWS AS INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS ISSUE WILL
DWINDLE AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
727 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS
SHIFTED EAST. WE ARE IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE AND THAT WAS EVIDENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN UPPER 60S. IT LOOK LIKE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SPLIT TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NOT AS PREVALENT
AS LAST NIGHT. JUST GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW IN PLACE...BUT
DEEPER VALLEYS WILL STILL FIND A WAY TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S. OVERALL JUST MORE MINOR UPDATE TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. KENTUCKY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING IN WARMER
AIR AND SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. THIS RISE WAS DESPITE
ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY AS A HIGH LAYER OF RATHER THICK CLOUDS
MOVED OVER THE STATE. AT 3 PM...READINGS HAD MADE IT TO THE LOW
AND MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OR SO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING DEEP AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...KEEPING THE RIDGE STRONG OVER
THE AREA LONGER. KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM MEANING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR OUR AREA. WHILE SOME SHORTWAVES...LIKE THE ONE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...THE
STRONGER ONES WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THEY THIN AND BREAK UP HEADING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS...AND SOME MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
SHOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAY THIS MORNING. EVEN SO...IN
GENERAL...A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MORE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS WITH LESSER DIFFERENCES ELSEWHERE. AGAIN
WOULD EXPECT THE DIURNAL T CURVE TO BE SHARP AFTER SUNSET FOR
THESE VALLEYS AS THEY QUICKLY DROP OFF. TUESDAY WILL BE AN EVEN
NICER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TAKING OFF TO THE LOW AND MID 70S BY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER RELATIVE TERRAIN BASED TEMPERATURE SPLIT...MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE
FOR FOG EITHER NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TONIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DISTINCTION...ESPECIALLY
EAST. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY KEPT THEM ZEROED OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO WANT TO BUDGE. IN FACT...THE
FEATURE THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE HIGH EAST IS SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIP THROUGH KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ULTIMATELY FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. SO...UNTIL THESE MODELS
CAN LATCH ONTO THE FEATURE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EVOLUTION OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS...EXPECT CONTINUED DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONSISTS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WHILE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED EAST...IT REMAINS IN
CONTROL. THAT SAID WE ARE IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THAT SURFACE
HIGH SO GENERAL SW FLOW HAS KICKED IN. HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY ISSUES WITH CIGS OR VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR HIGH
CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY THREAT. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE WILL BE DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAKE IT CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME LLWS AS INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS ISSUE WILL
DWINDLE AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
700 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. KENTUCKY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING IN WARMER
AIR AND SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. THIS RISE WAS DESPITE
ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY AS A HIGH LAYER OF RATHER THICK CLOUDS
MOVED OVER THE STATE. AT 3 PM...READINGS HAD MADE IT TO THE LOW
AND MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OR SO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING DEEP AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...KEEPING THE RIDGE STRONG OVER
THE AREA LONGER. KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM MEANING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR OUR AREA. WHILE SOME SHORTWAVES...LIKE THE ONE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...THE
STRONGER ONES WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THEY THIN AND BREAK UP HEADING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS...AND SOME MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
SHOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAY THIS MORNING. EVEN SO...IN
GENERAL...A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MORE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS WITH LESSER DIFFERENCES ELSEWHERE. AGAIN
WOULD EXPECT THE DIURNAL T CURVE TO BE SHARP AFTER SUNSET FOR
THESE VALLEYS AS THEY QUICKLY DROP OFF. TUESDAY WILL BE AN EVEN
NICER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TAKING OFF TO THE LOW AND MID 70S BY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER RELATIVE TERRAIN BASED TEMPERATURE SPLIT...MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE
FOR FOG EITHER NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TONIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DISTINCTION...ESPECIALLY
EAST. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY KEPT THEM ZEROED OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO WANT TO BUDGE. IN FACT...THE
FEATURE THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE HIGH EAST IS SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIP THROUGH KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ULTIMATELY FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. SO...UNTIL THESE MODELS
CAN LATCH ONTO THE FEATURE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EVOLUTION OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS...EXPECT CONTINUED DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONSISTS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WHILE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED EAST...IT REMAINS IN
CONTROL. THAT SAID WE ARE IN THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THAT SURFACE
HIGH SO GENERAL SW FLOW HAS KICKED IN. HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY ISSUES WITH CIGS OR VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR HIGH
CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY THREAT. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE WILL BE DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAKE IT CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME LLWS AS INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS ISSUE WILL
DWINDLE AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE BENEFITS BEFALLING THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL CLEARED ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN AND HIGH ONES DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY MIXED OUT AND DROPPED A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL BUILD A MODERATE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES MUCH STRONGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL THEN SERVE TO KEEP ANY ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE...INITIALLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS...AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS DIFFERENCE MAY APPROACH 15 DEGREES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TOUCH OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE A VERY NICE DAY AS MORNING LOWS...PARTICULARLY CHILLY IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS...GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE
60S DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BEING AS EXTREME.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DISTINCTION. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY ZEROED THEM OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW WITH RAIN
CHANCES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING FORWARD
PROGRESS AGAINST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA...THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE DELAYED A BIT
MORE...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE MOVEMENT AND
DEFINING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT BECOME A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHEARS IT OUT...AND THEN MOVES THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE THE FRONT BARELY
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. IN OTHER WORDS...SPRING WILL BE VISITING THE REGION
EARLY STARTING THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
HIGH PRESSURE HAS WON OUT AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED THROUGH MOST OF
EAST KENTUCKY. JUST A FEW MVFR CLOUD PATCHES REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT SKC CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY. THE SKIES WILL STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS DRIFTING BY FROM THE WEST. WILL LEAVE OUT FOG POTENTIAL FOR
THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS COULD SEE A
TOUCH OF IT BEFORE DAWN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAILS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1249 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWERS WE HAVE BEEN PLAGUED WITH HAVE
TAPERED OFF IN MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTION IS TOWARD THE VA BORDER
WHERE EVEN A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WHILE WE
HAVE SOME STRATUS AROUND LATE THIS EVENING...WE HAVE NOT SEEN
SHARP DROPS IN VIS DUE TO FOG. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE PATCHY
DENSE IN THE GRIDS AND NOTHING MORE UNLESS FURTHER DEGRADATION OF
VIS OCCURS. OTHERWISE TEMPS MAYBE TRICKY WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
ARE STARTING BECOME MORE BKN OR EVEN CLR...RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
OVERALL CAA SHOULD HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
WSR-88D CONTINUES TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
HEARD ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. THE MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS ARE NOW TRACKING SE INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF
EASTERN TN. OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THAT IS
WINDING DOWN AND WE ARE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE. THE
QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG OR SUPPRESSED STRATUS
DO WE SEE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ASOS SITES THAT HAD DENSE FOG HAVE
SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST THERE WILL BE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILD EAST. RIGHT NOW WILL GO PATCHY DENSE AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WILL ALSO KEEP IT
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A BLANKET SPS. IMPROVEMENTS
STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND WE MIX
OUT THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS PUSHING A
FAIRLY LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
EARLIER...THIS LOW HELPED TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RELEASING THE AREA FROM CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S. CURRENTLY...READINGS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTH AND THE LOWER 50S SOUTH ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...HAVE ALSO CLIMBED WITH THE UPPER 30S AND
40S MOST COMMON AS THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A COMPACT WAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHARP LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY AN EQUALLY DISTINCT RIDGE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUILDING INTO MONDAY AS IT STARTS TO BE PUMPED UP DUE TO
ITS POSITION DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. LOOK
FOR THE RIDGE TO KEEP ANY MID LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING THE WX QUIET. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
MAINLY JUST NEAR TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WITH STRONG LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12
SOLUTIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SFC
WAVE PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR DOES FOLLOW THIS
LOW BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY SNOW MIXING IN BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PCPN DEPARTS. OF A LARGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AROUND AND ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAVE HIT THE FOG RATHER HARD IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
AREAS HAVING SOME DENSE FOG. RIDGES MAY SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...AS
WELL...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON...FOR MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAWN MONDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR
POP...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET VALUES INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE NEARLY ZEROING THEM OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND
DRY...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUBBORNLY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AT FIRST AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY
HAPPEN IS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY STALLS...AND INSTABILITY BECOMES TAPPED OUT...GENERAL
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DOMINATE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEKS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE SPRING ALL WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH NIGHTLY MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERY NIGHT
EXCEPT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RADAR...PRECIP HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED
ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND SHOULD POSE LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...THIS HIGH IS WORKING TO SUPPRESS LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S RAINS BENEATH A STRONG LLVL
INVERSION...LEADING TO BOTH FOG AND LOW STRATUS COVERAGE. EXPECT
THAT AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR OR LIFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SITES COULD BOUNCE FROM
ONE CATEGORY TO THE OTHER AS WELL. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSION STRENGTHENING DURING THE MORNING...SO CIGS AND FOG MAY
BE SLOW TO MIX OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING TOWARD VFR
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z AS SRLY WINDS TAKE HOLD AT THE
SURFACE AND ALLOW ENOUGH WARMING FOR MIXING TO OCCUR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE IS
LEADING RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST TAF SITES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...AS THEY MAY
SEE SOME CLEARING AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
NEXT ISSUE THAT REMAINS A CONCERN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TONIGHT. A FEW SITES SUCH AS JKL/SYM HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SIGNS OF THIS WITH LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES. THEREFORE DID
TEMPO THOSE SITES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MORE FLUCTUATION
EARLY ON. OTHERWISE HELD BACK TO LOW MVFR ON OTHER TAF SITES GIVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. WHILE INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL TRAP SURFACE MOISTURE...WE LOOK TO MIX OUT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BIGGER IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1204 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIM NORTHERN MAIN ON MONDAY...BUT THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. IT COULD SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO SPEED UP CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE N
AND E ZONES...AND ALSO DEAL WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER SRN COASTAL
ZONES DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. ALSO SOME
WEAK ECHOES ON THE RADAR...BUT GIVEN TD DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25F HARD
TO SEE ANYTHING THIS LIGHT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
930 AM...LOOKS LIKE UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA
ATTM...AND THERE IS ONLY CLEARING BEHIND IT...SO HAVE IMPROVED SKY
CONDS THRU THE REST OF TODAY. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE SOME WEAK MID LVL
WAA MOVING A FEW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30-40F RANGE FROM N TO S.
7 AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE. HRRR AND OTHERS NOT MODELING THIS WELL SO WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AND MAKE SURE THIS STAYS OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE FINE IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF CALM WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAY
TRY AND DEVELOP... SO THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF OF A STRAY
SPRINKLE REACHING THE SHORE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...
AND WINDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER FROM THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTH STREAM WILL BRUSH US
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR TWO OR SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WE WILL SEE READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MORNING SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH
AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR TWO. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MODELS NOW SLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING IT WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES.
EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...930 AM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS THE SWELL BREAKS DOWN OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR MON IN STRONG SW FLOW.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
939 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIM NORTHERN MAIN ON MONDAY...BUT THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. IT COULD SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...LOOKS LIKE UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA
ATTM...AND THERE IS ONLY CLEARING BEHIND IT...SO HAVE IMPROVED SKY
CONDS THRU THE REST OF TODAY. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE SOME WEAK MID LVL
WAA MOVING A FEW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30-40F RANGE FROM N TO S.
7 AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE. HRRR AND OTHERS NOT MODELING THIS WELL SO WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AND MAKE SURE THIS STAYS OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE FINE IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF CALM WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAY
TRY AND DEVELOP... SO THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF OF A STRAY
SPRINKLE REACHING THE SHORE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...
AND WINDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER FROM THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTH STREAM WILL BRUSH US
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR TWO OR SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WE WILL SEE READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MORNING SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH
AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR TWO. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MODELS NOW SLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING IT WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES.
EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...930 AM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS THE SWELL BREAKS DOWN OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR MON IN STRONG SW FLOW.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...
MARINE...CEMPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
705 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE. HRRR AND OTHERS NOT MODELING THIS WELL SO WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AND MAKE SURE THIS STAYS OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE FINE IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF CALM WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAY
TRY AND DEVELOP... SO THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF OF A STRAY
SPRINKLE REACHING THE SHORE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...
AND WINDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER FROM THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTH STREAM WILL BRUSH US
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR TWO OR SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WE WILL SEE READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MORNING SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH
AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR TWO. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MODELS NOW SLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING IT WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES.
EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFTS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS FOR HIGH SEAS
ALTHOUGH PERIODS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE. THIS SWELL IS FROM AN
OFFSHORE SYSTEM AND WAVES SHOULD BE LESS IMPACTFUL THAN IF THEY
WERE FROM WIND WAVES.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND HELP PUSH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT INCREASING DEW POINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE ALSO
EXPECT SOME -DZ TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-
SE FLOW. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ESPECIALLY NOTED ON 300K
SFC...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL EVEN KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING TO 8C OR GREATER OVER CENTRAL MN. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WEST HALF AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATING FROM LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER EAST HALF...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL MAINTAIN
EARLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX
WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SAW DROPPING TO LIFR/VLIFR OVERNIGHT. WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPETED TO FALL BLO MVFR
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED HEATING/MIXING AND VEERING WINDS TO SSW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT LATE WED/THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1239 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PUSHING ONSHORE
OVER THE W COAST. THIS IS FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS WHICH IN TURN IS FORCING THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EASTWARD.
THUS...THE LONG ADVERTISED WARM UP IS GETTING UNDERWAY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WHICH FAILED TO BREAK UP ACROSS WI AND
A GOOD PART OF UPPER MI YESTERDAY ARE STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF
THE SRN AND ERN FCST AREA. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRES ARE PREVENTING THESE LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING
INTO THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W AND NCNTRL. OTHERWISE...WAA
PATTERN SHIFTING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY BTWN HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE E COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50+KT WINDS 2-3KFT OFF THE GROUND.
FORTUNATELY...MIXED LAYER WILL NOT BUILD HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO 30-35MPH GUSTS AT
TIMES... ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND E. EXPECT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE S AND E TO EXIT TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE A
SLOW PROCESS OVER THE E AS TRAJECTORIES INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD
UPSTREAM OF THAT AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER
THE W...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THAT AREA.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF CHILLY LAKE MI...TEMPS OVER THE E
WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S TODAY. FINALLY...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE E...REACHING NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. COMBINED WITH ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PCPN WILL
LIKELY BREAK OUT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE COLUMN HAS A BETTER
CHC OF SATURATING DUE TO BEING DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR
MASS. FARTHER S...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIBBON OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 200-300J/KG SURGING NE INTO THE
FAR SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. 06Z
NAM IS EVEN HIGHER...SHOWING 1-3KM MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 500-700J/KG
BRUSHING THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MI. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO LUCE COUNTY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
IS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IF ANY PCPN DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
LATER TONIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING AT LEAST NW
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY SNOWMELT...MAY SEE PATCHY
-DZ DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BEGINNING FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...FOG MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS HOLDING OVER THE REGION. 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIR INTO HE REGION ON SW FLOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 7C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 8-9C BY 0Z WEDNESDAY. A 5H TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NW ONTARIO WILL DROP A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
NW ONTARIO AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND EC ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE...THUS WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DAY 4 AND BEYOND.
MON/TUE...GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK CONTINUING. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
FROM MELTING SNOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST EVEN AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT LATE MONDAY. THUS WILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...PCPN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. INCREASING
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AND
SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND 0C SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 850 MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 50 W AND MID 40S E ON MONDAY WITH THE 50S
COMMON ON TUESDAY.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL TURN NW TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING. GFS DOES BRING 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 0C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT
IN MENTION OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO WARM 850 MB TEMPS UP. SFC LOW SWINGS WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
AREA. ANY LINGERING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPS TO COOL A BIT WED AND THUR BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRI THROUGH SAT...WARMING RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. GFS
SHOWS 85H TEMPS REACHING 13C OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF THE
MODELS...WITH GFS QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND
THUS EARLIER WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ANY CASE...WITH ZONAL
FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY QUICKLY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. WITH MILD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE
HIGH...AREA TO STAY WARM AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
NOT A BORING WEATHER PATTERN FOR AVIATION PURPOSES. WILL START OUT
WITH BREEZY S-SW WINDS TODAY...THEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. LOOK
FOR THE PRECIP/FG TO EXIT SE MONDAY MORNING...BUT LIFR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NW WILL LEAD TO S TO SW WINDS OF 15-30KT TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS OVER THE LAKE.
AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER S ON MON AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
NRN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TO AT LEAST 15-25KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN
NE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE S WITH
THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ARRIVAL OF
MOISTER AIR IN THIS FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL
CAUSE SOME FOG. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES
PASSES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WNW AND PROBABLY UP TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME. THE ARRIVAL
OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS LATER ON
WED INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...RJT
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
703 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PUSHING ONSHORE
OVER THE W COAST. THIS IS FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS WHICH IN TURN IS FORCING THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EASTWARD.
THUS...THE LONG ADVERTISED WARM UP IS GETTING UNDERWAY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WHICH FAILED TO BREAK UP ACROSS WI AND
A GOOD PART OF UPPER MI YESTERDAY ARE STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF
THE SRN AND ERN FCST AREA. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRES ARE PREVENTING THESE LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING
INTO THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W AND NCNTRL. OTHERWISE...WAA
PATTERN SHIFTING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY BTWN HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE E COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50+KT WINDS 2-3KFT OFF THE GROUND.
FORTUNATELY...MIXED LAYER WILL NOT BUILD HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO 30-35MPH GUSTS AT
TIMES... ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND E. EXPECT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE S AND E TO EXIT TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE A
SLOW PROCESS OVER THE E AS TRAJECTORIES INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD
UPSTREAM OF THAT AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER
THE W...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THAT AREA.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF CHILLY LAKE MI...TEMPS OVER THE E
WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S TODAY. FINALLY...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE E...REACHING NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. COMBINED WITH ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PCPN WILL
LIKELY BREAK OUT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE COLUMN HAS A BETTER
CHC OF SATURATING DUE TO BEING DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR
MASS. FARTHER S...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIBBON OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 200-300J/KG SURGING NE INTO THE
FAR SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. 06Z
NAM IS EVEN HIGHER...SHOWING 1-3KM MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 500-700J/KG
BRUSHING THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MI. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO LUCE COUNTY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
IS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IF ANY PCPN DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
LATER TONIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING AT LEAST NW
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY SNOWMELT...MAY SEE PATCHY
-DZ DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BEGINNING FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...FOG MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS HOLDING OVER THE REGION. 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIR INTO HE REGION ON SW FLOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 7C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 8-9C BY 0Z WEDNESDAY. A 5H TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NW ONTARIO WILL DROP A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
NW ONTARIO AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND EC ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE...THUS WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DAY 4 AND BEYOND.
MON/TUE...GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK CONTINUING. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
FROM MELTING SNOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST EVEN AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT LATE MONDAY. THUS WILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...PCPN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. INCREASING
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AND
SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND 0C SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 850 MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 50 W AND MID 40S E ON MONDAY WITH THE 50S
COMMON ON TUESDAY.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL TURN NW TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING. GFS DOES BRING 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 0C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT
IN MENTION OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO WARM 850 MB TEMPS UP. SFC LOW SWINGS WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
AREA. ANY LINGERING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPS TO COOL A BIT WED AND THUR BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRI THROUGH SAT...WARMING RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. GFS
SHOWS 85H TEMPS REACHING 13C OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF THE
MODELS...WITH GFS QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND
THUS EARLIER WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ANY CASE...WITH ZONAL
FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY QUICKLY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. WITH MILD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE
HIGH...AREA TO STAY WARM AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
PESKY MVFR CIGS AT KSAW SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
MORNING AS BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN WI IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF INCREASING MOVEMENT TO THE NE. AT KIWD/KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RESULTING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER
THE AREA WILL LEAD TO LLWS THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASED MIXING LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTN...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO INCREASINGLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
RATHER THAN LLWS. GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS AT KIWD/KSAW. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH...FG/-DZ SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NW WILL LEAD TO S TO SW WINDS OF 15-30KT TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS OVER THE LAKE.
AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER S ON MON AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
NRN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TO AT LEAST 15-25KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN
NE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE S WITH
THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ARRIVAL OF
MOISTER AIR IN THIS FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL
CAUSE SOME FOG. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES
PASSES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WNW AND PROBABLY UP TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME. THE ARRIVAL
OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS LATER ON
WED INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...RJT
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PUSHING ONSHORE
OVER THE W COAST. THIS IS FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS WHICH IN TURN IS FORCING THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EASTWARD.
THUS...THE LONG ADVERTISED WARM UP IS GETTING UNDERWAY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WHICH FAILED TO BREAK UP ACROSS WI AND
A GOOD PART OF UPPER MI YESTERDAY ARE STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF
THE SRN AND ERN FCST AREA. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRES ARE PREVENTING THESE LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING
INTO THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W AND NCNTRL. OTHERWISE...WAA
PATTERN SHIFTING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY BTWN HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE E COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50+KT WINDS 2-3KFT OFF THE GROUND.
FORTUNATELY...MIXED LAYER WILL NOT BUILD HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO 30-35MPH GUSTS AT
TIMES... ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND E. EXPECT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE S AND E TO EXIT TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE A
SLOW PROCESS OVER THE E AS TRAJECTORIES INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD
UPSTREAM OF THAT AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER
THE W...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THAT AREA.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF CHILLY LAKE MI...TEMPS OVER THE E
WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S TODAY. FINALLY...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE E...REACHING NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. COMBINED WITH ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PCPN WILL
LIKELY BREAK OUT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE COLUMN HAS A BETTER
CHC OF SATURATING DUE TO BEING DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR
MASS. FARTHER S...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIBBON OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 200-300J/KG SURGING NE INTO THE
FAR SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. 06Z
NAM IS EVEN HIGHER...SHOWING 1-3KM MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 500-700J/KG
BRUSHING THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MI. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO LUCE COUNTY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
IS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IF ANY PCPN DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
LATER TONIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING AT LEAST NW
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY SNOWMELT...MAY SEE PATCHY
-DZ DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BEGINNING FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...FOG MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS HOLDING OVER THE REGION. 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIR INTO HE REGION ON SW FLOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 7C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 8-9C BY 0Z WEDNESDAY. A 5H TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NW ONTARIO WILL DROP A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
NW ONTARIO AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND EC ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE...THUS WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DAY 4 AND BEYOND.
MON/TUE...GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK CONTINUING. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
FROM MELTING SNOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST EVEN AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT LATE MONDAY. THUS WILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...PCPN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. INCREASING
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AND
SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND 0C SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 850 MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 50 W AND MID 40S E ON MONDAY WITH THE 50S
COMMON ON TUESDAY.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL TURN NW TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING. GFS DOES BRING 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 0C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT
IN MENTION OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO WARM 850 MB TEMPS UP. SFC LOW SWINGS WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
AREA. ANY LINGERING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPS TO COOL A BIT WED AND THUR BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRI THROUGH SAT...WARMING RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. GFS
SHOWS 85H TEMPS REACHING 13C OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF THE
MODELS...WITH GFS QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND
THUS EARLIER WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ANY CASE...WITH ZONAL
FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY QUICKLY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. WITH MILD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE
HIGH...AREA TO STAY WARM AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AT KCMX. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE CLEARING TREND IS
LOWER AT SAW AS AN INVERSION STRENGTHENS THAT MAY TRAP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE SRLY FLOW INCREASES. SO...TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR
AT KSAW IS UNCERTAIN. AT KIWD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC BASED INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT
KIWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NW WILL LEAD TO S TO SW WINDS OF 15-30KT TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS OVER THE LAKE.
AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER S ON MON AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
NRN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TO AT LEAST 15-25KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN
NE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE S WITH
THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ARRIVAL OF
MOISTER AIR IN THIS FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL
CAUSE SOME FOG. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES
PASSES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WNW AND PROBABLY UP TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME. THE ARRIVAL
OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS LATER ON
WED INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...RJT
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.AVIATION...
FOG DEVELOPED AGGRESSIVELY UNDER CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND PRODUCING
LIFR RESTRICTION AT MBS DURING LATE EVENING WHICH IS ABOUT TO
DEVELOP AT FNT TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WIDE SWINGS IN
VISIBILITY THAT IS TYPICAL OF SHALLOW FOG HAVE BEEN LESS FREQUENT
AND THERE IS A HINT OF SATELLITE INDICATION AT PRESS TIME THAT
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A PREVAILING LIFR CONDITION WHILE THE SKY IS
CLEAR. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING LINE WILL
REACH...THROUGH PTK BUT LIKELY NOT TO DTW...BEFORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS STALLS AT SOME POINT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL BRING THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST BACK NORTHWARD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITY BUT MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. A CLEARING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS
THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR DTW...THE CLEARING TREND OBSERVED MOVING INTO FNT TO PTK HAS A
LOW CHANCE OF REACHING DTW BEFORE THE TREND REVERSES NORTHWARD
DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS OVER INDIANA AND OHIO WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH MORNING. A LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING TREND IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET DURING THE NIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 300 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
DISCUSSION...
ACCUMULATING SNOW COMING TO AN END BY 00Z...AS 700 MB COLD POOL OF
-14 TO -15 C EXITS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN...WITH WARMING MID LEVELS AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB BUILDS INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BACKDROP FOR COLD (AROUND
10 DEGREES) MINS IF CLOUDS BREAK. THE RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TO SKEW
THE FORECAST ON CLOUDIER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MINS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 20S/AROUND 20 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...CLEARING TREND WORKING DOWN FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING FAIRLY AGRESSIVE...AND DO WANT TO GIVE
WEIGHT TO THE 12Z EURO WHICH ALLOWS FOR CLEARING IN NORTH HALF OF
CWA...ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. IF CLEARING DOES EXTEND
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...COULD HAVE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING TOMORROW...WARM ADVECTION
REALLY KICKS...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS LATE
IN THE DAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE ABOVE 0
C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH...CONCERNS WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS WITH THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE.
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...DESPITE SURFACE DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 30S. 12Z
EURO/NAM BOTH INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS RISING JUST ABOVE 10
C ON MONDAY...SUGGESTIVE OF MAXES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE OUR PAST WARMUP`S IN FEBRUARY...WARM ADVECTION MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT THICKER/PERSISTENT...AND WILL TEMPER
THE WARMUP A BIT AND KEEP MAXES IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD YIELD
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...MOISTURE PLUME OF PWAT 1+ INCHES WILL CREEP
EASTWARD AHEAD OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ENSURE MAINLY DRY
AND VERY MILD WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
STALLING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MIDWEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD
FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS DRIER AIR WILL FEED IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. WINDS THEN WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH.
WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
LAKE HURON...PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE...WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. A MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
251 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS FOG OVERNIGHT AND RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NE MN FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF NW WI. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY WARMER FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
FORECAST REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS OVER
NW WI TODAY THAN NE MM WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THAT
AREA. OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS DO SHOW INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE MELTING
SNOW...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS AREA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FORM THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONING
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS IN EASTERN SD BY 06Z TUESDAY AND THEN
IT ELONGATES AS IT MOVES TO THE MN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WITH A POTENT VORT MAX FOLLOWS CLOSELY
BEHIND. THIS APPROACH RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING WITH
SOME LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FROM NW WI TO THE I35 CORRIDOR AND UP THE
NORTH SHORE. MADE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE MENTION OF THUNDER MONDAY
EVENING AND KEPT IT OUT OF THE AREA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE INSTABILITY IS FURTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY INCREASES TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WORDING AS
ANY STORM FORMATION WILL BE ELEVATED. MAINTAINED THE PATCHY FOG AS
WELL. ON TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON LOCATION OF SFC LOW
AND ITS IMPACT ON THE REGION AS WELL AS UPPER TROF. WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
AND PATCHY FOG. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM
PUSHES ITS COLD FRONT OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE
ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND TAKE THEIR COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROF. THIS AFFECTS POP PLACEMENT
AND QPF. WILL MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON FROPA. BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE A SMALL POP OVER PRICE COUNTY FOR ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. A DRY PATTERN IS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TROUGH SATURDAY WITH RIDGING NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. THESE CEILINGS MAY IMPACT
KHYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE WERE ALSO SOME PATCHY
IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE HRRR WANTS
TO DEVELOP THESE LOWER CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...BUT THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ SHOULD KEEP THESE CEILINGS FROM
MAKING MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS. THE LATEST RAP IS DOING A BETTER
JOB WITH ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DOES PUSH MOST OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE JET PROGRESSES EAST. LLWS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A MENTION IN ALL
TAFS ATTM. IF SURFACE WINDS INCREASE MORE AND START TO GUST MORE
FREQUENTLY...THE LLWS MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 34 45 38 / 10 10 30 60
INL 47 29 47 37 / 0 10 30 50
BRD 53 35 55 42 / 0 10 20 50
HYR 49 38 53 46 / 10 10 20 60
ASX 48 36 49 40 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...FROSIG
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WAS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE REMAINING MINNESOTA ZONES SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AFTER SUNSET THINK CLOUDS MAY
REDEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND DECOUPLES. POCKETS OF FOG
CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT EITHER. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND VEER INTO THE NORTHLAND BY SUNRISE. DEGREE
OF MIXING IS UNCERTAIN AND DIRECTLY RELATED TO COOLING TRENDS. IF
THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS MIXING. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST BEST MOISTURE FEED HAS VEERED SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHLAND SINCE YESTERDAYS FORECAST AND HAVE NUDGED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THINK SKIES WILL
TREND GENERALLY TOWARD MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...AWAY
FROM THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT PARTLY TO MAINLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THE LLJ ENDS UP WEAKER THAN
FORECAST...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST AND DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
CLEARING AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. CARRYING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHEAST...TO THE LOW 50S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON AN ACTIVE NOTE...AS
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO
+9C ON THE ECMWF...WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE STRONG WAA SHOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND THEN PUSH EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3/4 TO 1
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE 50S IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THEN END AT SOME POINT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. THESE CEILINGS MAY IMPACT
KHYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE WERE ALSO SOME PATCHY
IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE HRRR WANTS
TO DEVELOP THESE LOWER CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...BUT THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ SHOULD KEEP THESE CEILINGS FROM
MAKING MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS. THE LATEST RAP IS DOING A BETTER
JOB WITH ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DOES PUSH MOST OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE JET PROGRESSES EAST. LLWS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A MENTION IN ALL
TAFS ATTM. IF SURFACE WINDS INCREASE MORE AND START TO GUST MORE
FREQUENTLY...THE LLWS MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 23 46 34 45 / 0 10 10 30
INL 24 47 29 47 / 0 10 10 30
BRD 29 53 35 55 / 0 10 10 20
HYR 22 48 38 53 / 0 10 10 20
ASX 23 48 36 49 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
239 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
SHORT TERM HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST WORKING INTO PARK COUNTY.
THE 19Z HRRR HAS THE FRONT REACHING BILLINGS AROUND 10 PM AND IT
IS NOT DEVELOPING MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT EITHER. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IS GOING SOUTH AS THE WAVE IS SPLITTING.
THIS IS LEAVING SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING.
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE
DEPARTS THE ONLY REMAINING CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM IS
IN THE WESTERN ZONES AS UNSETTLED ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANCE OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DISORGANIZED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE
PRE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEAK WAVES WILL PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...
PRIMARILY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF GUSTS 35-40KTS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...PARTICULARLY AT KBIL AND KSHR. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
WINDS PICKING UP AT KLVM AND THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE DAY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/055 031/053 031/056 038/067 043/065 039/062 036/060
51/B 11/B 22/W 00/N 01/B 12/W 21/B
LVM 031/050 028/047 029/052 038/063 042/063 038/059 034/055
81/B 12/W 22/W 21/N 22/W 23/W 22/W
HDN 040/056 029/056 029/060 032/070 038/067 035/065 030/062
62/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 21/B
MLS 040/056 030/054 030/058 032/069 037/066 036/062 032/059
42/W 11/U 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/U
4BQ 039/054 030/053 028/058 030/069 037/069 038/066 032/060
32/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 21/U
BHK 040/053 029/049 028/057 029/068 034/067 034/061 030/056
22/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/U
SHR 037/050 028/051 026/055 029/068 035/068 035/066 031/059
54/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
800 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
DID A MINOR UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. RECENT RUNS
OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF PCPN LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RECENT
RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
DRY WARM SECTOR IS FIRMLY PLANTED OVER NEB...BRINGING RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...AND PEAKING AT 110M OVER
WESTERN CO. STOUT 850MB WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE
50KT LOW-LEVEL JET HAD BROUGHT 8C+ DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO...AND 10C+ TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. 850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SD/ND/MT COMMON BORDER. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OF 20C+ EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US
NORTHWARD INTO NEB/SD/MN. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN
WESTERN NEB...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW IN NORTHEAST
CO/NEB PANHANDLE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLIP
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD
JUST A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS JUST SKIRT THE
AREA WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT DO THINK CHANCES ARE
PRETTY LOW OVERALL. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE MO VALLEY
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT. WITH SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS MILD ON TUESDAY THAN
RECENT DAYS...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
GFS CAME IN AS A FAST AND NORTHWARD OUTLIER FOR EJECTING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW INTO THE CENTRAL US ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLIER AND FARTHER NORTH
THAN ITS EARLIER RUNS OR THE ECMWF/NAM. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE ISSUE OF THE GFS AND ITS HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH BLENDS GIVING TOO MUCH WEIGHT
TO THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION. HAVE INCREASES POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS OR THE
RESULTING BLENDS...WITH MENTION STILL LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE EJECTING LOW COULD
CLIP THE CWA...AND HAVE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS.
DESPITE LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN (OR AT LEAST
CLOUDS)...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY VFR
CIGS FL050 NEAR OR SOUTHEAST KOMA/KLNK THIS EVENING AND THESE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z AT KOMA
AND KLNK...AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN STRONG AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30 TO 40KTS. SOUTH
WINDS 16-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-30KTS. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOR NOW KEPT THESE SOUTH
OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
558 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
AT H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEBRASKA TONIGHT. RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DUE TO
RH BELOW 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
THIS EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. AS OF
21Z...LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSNY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SLOWLY
BRING SATURATION BELOW 850HPA THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. AT 00Z...HRRR AND RAP MODELS PLACE SFC LOW OVER KTIF
WITH EXPANDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST AND CONTINUED DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM AND RAP FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH CONVECTIVE INDICES...MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG...LIFTED
INDEX AS LOW AS -3C...AND UP TO 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR FROM KSNY TO
KAIA TO KVTN. CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT THREAT OF SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER BOYD CO BY 06Z ACCORDING TO NAM
AND HRR. 850HPA CAA IS STRONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING NEARLY 8C OVER
NORTHWEST NEB FROM 00-06Z. HOWEVER...850HPA TEMPS REMAIN AOA 0C
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AT
KAIA AND MERRIMAN WHILE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING IN
LOWEST 100HPA. RAP ALSO WEAKENS LIFT AS TEMPS COOL TO THE POINT
WHERE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH
CONFIDENCE RELATIVELY LOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE
PANHANDLE...OR AT LEAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION TO
OCCUR...LEFT MAIN PTYPE AS RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61.
HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEAR KAIA AND PINE RIDGE SO
LEFT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW...IN CASE STRONG LOW LIFT
CONTINUES AFTER 06Z ALLOWING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND DYNAMIC COOLING.
TUESDAY...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG SD
BORDER WITH SLOWLY DRYING AIR IN LOWEST 50HPA. LEFT SCHC RAIN
NORTH OF U.S. HWY 20 THROUGH 18Z. FARTHER SOUTH...SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER AND EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING. 850HPA TEMPS
ARE MODEST AT 0-5C WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ALIGNED WELL WITH
MONDAY 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE...RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND HAVE SOME TIMING AND
TEMPERATURE ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEANS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON
STEADY RISE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...5C TO 15C. ECMWF MORE
PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE THURSDAY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLES
COMING IN WITH 1 TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LOW 60S ON THURSDAY THROUGH UPPER 60S SUNDAY SEEM REASONABLE AS
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PACIFIC AIR. STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
SLOWED BY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BUT LOOKING
AT TIME HEIGHTS DRY LOWER LEVELS HIGH BASED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH STRONG CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POSSIBILITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT. MEANWHILE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INTO N CENTRAL DUE TO WRAP AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THIS
COULD IMPACT KVTN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE KLBF TERMINAL. ALSO COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS WITH THE
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE LONGEVITY OF THE
LOWER CIGS...AND WILL MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MAR 7 2016
CRITICAL RH VALUES AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. RED FLAG WARNING ON TRACK FOR FIRE ZONES 210 AND
219. DECENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MAX RH VALUES AOA 80
PERCENT.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
310 PM PST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AN
ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK MAY BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SOME DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW SCOOTING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WILL LEAD TO A FEW TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WAS
OBSERVED NEAR KINGMAN AROUND 2230Z WITH A REPORT OF SMALL HAIL
COVERING THE GROUND SO ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SIMILAR
RESULTS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH A 2-4 ADDITIONAL INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL
8 PM PST.
THE COLD LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN BAJA
AND SONORA MEXICO TONIGHT LEAVING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY THEN A RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BUILDS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
LEAD TO SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 MPH
NEAR LAUGHLIN AND BULLHEAD CITY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 8-10
DEGREES TUESDAY AND ANOTHER 5-7 DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES OF
WARMING.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN HOW
AN INITIAL PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS AND GEM DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
CLOSING IT OFF. THE ECMWF IF MUCH MORE OPEN AND KEEPS IT FARTHER
NORTH. A BROAD TROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD DIRECT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND WIND OUR
DIRECTION. THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...AND BASED ON ITS TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DEVIATE FROM WHAT IT DEPICTS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
06Z. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH
CIGS AROUND 5-12 KFT AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY FAVORING SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
THEN FAVOR NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
TREND TOWARD MORE DIURNAL FLOW OVERNIGHT. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING, WITH CIGS AROUND TO 5-10 KFT AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. WEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED AT KDAG TUESDAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY, IMPACTING KEED AND KIFP.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
257 PM PST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will diminish this evening with a short dry period
expected tuesday. A weak disturbance may bring light snow and
rain Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Additional storm systems
will bring gusty winds at times, with periods of rain and snow
later this week through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Bands of snow showers over the Sierra and far western NV are
expected to continue for a few more hours then slowly wind down
this evening. Although web camera images show wet pavement over
the main passes, some snow could accumulate again after 4 pm
especially if a heavier band moves over those areas. We will keep
the Winter Weather Advisory going until 8 pm, then the majority
of the snow should taper off with the weakening deformation zone
as the main low moves south into northwest Mexico.
If sufficient clearing occurs later this evening, areas of
freezing fog would be able to develop late tonight and early
Tuesday in the usual fog prone valleys in northeast CA and around
Truckee.
After a shortwave ridge brings dry conditions to most areas
Tuesday (although high clouds will likely increase during the day),
warm advection moisture increases Tuesday night through early
Wednesday morning. This would bring increased chances of light
snow and rain mainly in areas north of I-80 and near the Sierra.
Snow levels will likely begin relatively low (around 5000-5500
feet except 4500-5000 feet north of Portola-Gerlach) but rise
quickly Wednesday morning. At most, a few inches may accumulate
mainly above 5000-5500 feet in northeast CA and around Tahoe, but
then quickly melt off during the mid-late morning.
Warmer and drier conditions then prevail through Wednesday with
moderate breezes in the afternoon. Winds in higher elevations will
begin to increase Tuesday night, with a further strengthening
Wednesday night with possible ridge gusts up to 100 mph. MJD
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
A few minor changes were made to the long term, mainly in the
Thursday/Friday time frame. Overall, the pattern looks to remain
unsettled into early next week, but plenty of uncertainty remains
even for Thursday and Friday.
For late week, the GFS brings a weakening front to the I-80/HWY 50
corridors late Thursday and Thursday night while the EC keeps it
near the Oregon border. For Friday and Friday night, both have a
splitting system. However the GFS splits it apart with little impact
here while the EC brings in a decent negative tilt system. The only
changes made here were to decrease the precip chances south and east
of HWY50/395 for Thursday/Thursday night and increase them in
western Lassen County where the best threat is. Snow levels will
start high near 7000 feet Thursday and Thursday night then fall some
Friday, although the GFS with its splitting system brings in less
cold air.
For the weekend into early next week, there is better agreement
amongst the models and ensembles for a potentially significant
system. GFS/EC both have it come through in two parts, one
Saturday night and the rest Sunday night into Monday morning with
the latter being the stronger one. Winds look strongest Saturday
night into Sunday at least in the valleys while the ridges will
blow the entire event. As for precip, snow levels may start lower
at 6000-7000 feet then potentially fall to near the valley floors
Monday morning. Have generally gone with likely pops in the Sierra
and chance Western NV Saturday night on. While it does look
promising, given the way the models have changed and the potential
for the storm to split, do not want to speculate on any amounts at
this time. Wallmann
&&
.AVIATION...
With the upper low over southern CA slowly pulling away, expect the
showers currently around to continue through 03Z then diminish.
Occasional IFR CIGS/VIS in the Sierra in the heavier showers, most
notably around KTRK/KMMH. KRNO/KCXP will also see some MVFR CIGS
thru 00Z. Slow clearing tonight with generally VFR conditions after
06Z. Only exception would be near KTRK if FZFG forms, about a 30%
chance.
Winds will be north near 10 kt into this evening thru 06Z before
becoming light. Winds become more west to northwest Tuesday
afternoon after 22Z with peak speeds to 50 kt. There will be some
mtn wave turbulence Tuesday evening as ridge winds briefly gust to
60 kt. There could also be some MVFR CIGS due to light precip
north of I-80 Tuesday night.
Looking ahead, next storm impacts are Thursday afternoon into
Friday. How extensive the impacts remains uncertain with large model
differences. A stronger storm is possible late Saturday through next
Monday as well. Wallmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening NVZ002.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1018 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Main update was replacing the Winter Storm Warning with a Winter
Weather Advisory for the Sierra zones, and letting the advisory
expire for northeast CA-northwest NV. Lighter snow associated with
deformation zone will continue today but we are expecting fewer
travel impacts. Recent web cameras show wet roads on I-80 near
Donner Summit and US-50 near Echo Summit. Mono County has been
left dry so far this morning, but short range guidance has
indicated that the deformation zone will shift to that area by
early-mid afternoon. If this deformation area comes together as
projected, snow may persist a few hours into the evening near
Mammoth Lakes, although amounts are not likely to exceed 6
inches. MJD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/
UPDATE...
Upper low has slowed its east-southeast progress and remains just
off the central CA coast this morning. Just looking at the trends
from satellite and radar data leads one to believe the best
chance for any appreciable snow will be farther south into Mono
County through the day. But...the latest HRRR depictions show
precipitation developing across far western Nevada and northeast
California later this morning in response to the expected
deformation zone on the north and northeast side of the upper low.
If/when this happens we could see a period of accumulating snow
across the far northern part of the forecast area where
temperatures are closer to the freezing mark this morning and
relative humidity is higher. Farther south along the Sierra Front
the temperatures this morning area a little higher and there is a
little more dry air near the surface. This would produce wet
bulbing...but may not be sufficiently cold enough to allow any
accumulation as the morning wears on. So...even though we may see
snow across the Reno/Carson City area later this morning...it does
not appear now there will be sufficient accumulating snow to
maintain the winter weather advisory.
Snow amounts will be a little less in the the Tahoe basin as
well...but we will maintain the warning there for now given snow
that has already fallen and continuing travel difficulties.
Farther north there is still light snow falling in parts of
northeast california so we will let the advisory continue there as
well. In Mono County we expect redevelopment as this area will be
closer to the upper low today. The amounts may not be what we
originally forecast...but there should be some snow and travel
difficulties later this morning. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Storm pushing through the Sierra today may impact the morning
commute with snow covered roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
Tuesday will bring a brief break in the weather before the pattern
turns wet again midweek.
SHORT TERM...
Heavy snowfall continues in the Sierra early this morning as this
second winter storm pushes into the West Coast. Sierra passes have
been significantly impacted overnight with extensive travel delays,
chain controls, and even a temporary closure of Interstate 80 to
name a few incidents. For the latest on road conditions please
check with CalTrans, NDOT, or CHP.
Precipitation has not begun to spillover into western Nevada early
this morning, but high resolution simulations are indicating that
could occur sometime between 3AM and 6AM this morning. Forecast
model soundings are still indicating a very unstable atmosphere
with steep lapse rates that would be conducive to showers
developing. NAM/GFS are indicating that the area of deformation
may develop later, after 10AM, which would not be conducive to
snowfall accumulating on the roadways and therefore limiting
snowfall totals for Reno, Carson City, and Minden. Although totals
may be lower for the morning commute, drivers should be alert and
slow down as even wet roads will create slick driving conditions.
As the upper level trough drops south and east later this afternoon,
the flow turns north/northeast into the southern Sierra resulting in
moist upslope flow into Mono/Alpine counties. Wrap around bands
could result in a late afternoon burst of snow showers, especially
from Highway 50 south. With snowfall likely persisting through the
afternoon and into the evening, we decided to go ahead and extend
the Winter Storm Warning through 4PM. There is potential for
additional accumulations around 1 to 2 feet of snow above 7000 feet
through late this evening in Mono County. Please see the Winter
Storm Warning for details.
We are still anticipating a break in the weather on Tuesday as a
weak ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Tuesday night into
Wednesday, warm air advection precipitation starts to push into
far northern CA/NV with light precipitation possible mainly north
of Interstate 80. Models have continued to trend farther south
with this feature. With forecast model soundings showing an
isothermal layer for this time frame with the light precipitation,
we are expecting it to fall as snow with some light accumulations
possible especially north of Gerlach and Susanville. The light
snow accumulations could pose a problem for the Wednesday morning
commute as it would increase the chances for slick road
conditions. Weishahn
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
A few changes were made to pops in the extended forecast early on
with only minimal changes made after Friday. The model solutions
offer overall mild agreement in the long wave pattern as a broad
trough remains offshore through the extended period...but there is
little agreement in the details at this point regarding timing of
short waves rotating through the flow that would trigger periods of
precipitation. The extended looks to be a time of unsettled
weather...but whether that takes the form of rain or snow outside of
the higher elevations is quite literally up in the air at this point.
By Thursday the GFS is a little faster and farther south than the
ECMWF in bringing pcpn back to the region. This means lower snow
levels for the GFS as well. These differences extend into Friday as
the GFS moves the short wave through the region with pops
spreading across the CWA while the ECMWF holds the short wave back
to the west and almost gives it a negative tilt. This would slow
the entrance of pcpn into western Nevada until later Friday and
cause higher temperatures over the Basin and Range. The GEFS
ensembles show some minor support for this solution...but most
members are closer to the deterministic GFS. So the primary
changes were to bump pops up a bit over the far western CWA
Thursday and trim them back in the eastern CWA. Pops were lowered
in the far southeast CWA for Friday.
The ECMWF becomes almost zonal and much wetter than the GFS by late
Saturday. The GFS redevelops the long wave trough off the coast.
Again...these disparate solutions would have significant impacts to
pops...snow levels and temperatures. This extends into Sunday as the
GFS starts to eject another short wave and becomes much colder than
the ECMWF.
Overall there is a high likelihood that the extended period will
feature wet weather...but differences in the deterministic and
ensemble model solutions lead to a low confidence forecast regarding
any details. Will go with a very general forecast of the period this
cycle. 20
AVIATION...
Deep moisture plume and lift associated with the next short wave
trough and incoming upper level low will combine to produce snow
through the Sierra into the early afternoon while areas east and
north of the Sierra see a mix of rain and snow before turning to all
snow later today. Currently there is less precipitation making its
way over the Sierra as the mid level winds have become more
southerly. This will allow VFR conditions to hold on longer east of
the Sierra and even in some Sierra valleys through roughly daybreak.
As the upper low gets closer today...conditions should deteriorate
with snow accumulating on the Sierra runways up to as much as 6
inches through late morning and IFR conditions prevailing. East of
the Sierra the likelihood of accumulating snow is becoming far more
uncertain...but we could see a couple of inches at KCXP and KMEV
through 7/18 UTC. The lack of significant spillover is making
accumulations at KRNO far less likely...but they cannot be ruled out.
Occasional gusty winds will continue this morning up to 35kts from
the south. By late afternoon surface winds should shift to the
northwest for most locations. Lingering snow showers will bring
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions into the evening hours before the
showers taper off by daybreak Tuesday.
Another round of unsettled weather will return to the region
starting Wednesday and last through the week. 20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AND REMAINED ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THAN
MODELS INDICATE...BUT SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SREF AND HRRR RUNS HINT AT SOME FOG IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANY SATURATION IS VERY SHALLOW AND NOT WIDESPREAD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 32-35...WITH SOME SPOTS
AROUND 30 POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE DIGS
THROUGH THE WESTERN US AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REPOSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUIDANCE LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN FORECAST H10-H85 THICKNESSES OF 1325-1330M
MONDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AS A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST
STATES. HIGHS 62-67.
MILDER LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE
POTENTIAL STILL FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING OVER HEAD...
40-43
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ENCAMPS ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. VERY WARM WEEK AHEAD AS
THICKNESS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1370S AND POSSIBLY 1380S LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH
THE 60S FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BREAK DOWN WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND INFLUENCE THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MOVES HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF FOR ANOTHER FULL DAY...NOT BRINING IN
RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. IF THE
ECMWF WORKS OUT...THEN SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE 70S
BUT IF THE GFS WORKS OUT IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THE 70 MARK. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR DETAILS TO EMERGE BUT AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY
TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
SCT TO BKN STRATOCU...MOSTLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FT...HAVE LEAD TO
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING. WILL BEGIN
TO REPOSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT..LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KRDU/KRWI/KFAY. A 5-10KT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL THEN DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE
INCREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY MORNING (09-12Z) STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AND REMAINED ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THAN
MODELS INDICATE...BUT SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SREF AND HRRR RUNS HINT AT SOME FOG IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANY SATURATION IS VERY SHALLOW AND NOT WIDESPREAD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 32-35...WITH SOME SPOTS
AROUND 30 POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE DIGS
THROUGH THE WESTERN US AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REPOSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUIDANCE LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN FORECAST H10-H85 THICKNESSES OF 1325-1330M
MONDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AS A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST
STATES. HIGHS 62-67.
MILDER LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE
POTENTIAL STILL FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING OVER HEAD...
40-43
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
FOR THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE SOME 30 TO 50 METERS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S... WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED TO
BE THURSDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AREAWIDE. LOWS TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AS
WELL... GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHWARD PUSH THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER... THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY... BEFORE WASHING OUT. THUS... WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD... BUT SHOW A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREE GRADIENT FROM NE
TO S/SW. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 70
NE TO THE UPPER 70S S. WITH REGARD TO ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN SOME AS THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THUS...
WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO SIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCES ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY REINS ON SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH THE THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW NEXT WEEK TO OUR
WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY... HOLDING ANY PRECIP TO OUR WEST NOW. HOWEVER... UNTIL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY... WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S... AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
SCT TO BKN STRATOCU...MOSTLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FT...HAVE LEAD TO
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING. WILL BEGIN
TO REPOSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT..LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KRDU/KRWI/KFAY. A 5-10KT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL THEN DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE
INCREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY MORNING (09-12Z) STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DRY SLOT OVER EASTERN SD AND NE AND WAS
MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED POPS AND
QPF DOWN FOR TONIGHT AND UP A LITTLE FOR TUE MORNING. FOG LOOP
INDICATED LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUD TREND IS FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE/FILL IN IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY. WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A TAD FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED OPEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST WY/NE PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN SASK AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL MAN TUE. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE OVER ONTARIO LATE
TUE.
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. CHANGED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS CURVES FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CENTER OF THE SFC
LOW IS STILL DOWN OVER NEBRASKA...BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA
THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND 50S ARE NOT THAT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE MODELS
ALL BRING THE WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS BY 06Z...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO...SO
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING THE MAIN ONE AND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
THROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EAST
TOMORROW EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC LOW TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW OUR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 30S AND
40S AND IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GO THROUGH
UNTIL LATE COULD STILL REACH THE 50S. HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS QUIET FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN...RISING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S WEDNESDAY TO THE
40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NW MN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA.
GFS/ECMWF KEEP QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH SFC TEMPS. AT
THIS POINT...HIGHS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S APPEARS LIKELY...WHILE MORE 60S ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AS THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MOSTLY VFR CIGS WERE OVER NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS BETWEEN 32 AND 40
HUNDRED FT. CIGS WERE HIGHER OVER EASTERN ND WITH MANY OB SITES
ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FT. HOWEVER A MVFR BAND WAS OVER RAIN BAND IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT MVFR BAND TO SHIFT NORTH WITH PRECIP
BAND. EXPECT CIGS TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
659 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED OPEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST WY/NE PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN SASK AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL MAN TUE. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE OVER ONTARIO LATE
TUE.
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. CHANGED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS CURVES FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CENTER OF THE SFC
LOW IS STILL DOWN OVER NEBRASKA...BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA
THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND 50S ARE NOT THAT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE MODELS
ALL BRING THE WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS BY 06Z...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO...SO
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING THE MAIN ONE AND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
THROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EAST
TOMORROW EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC LOW TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW OUR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 30S AND
40S AND IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GO THROUGH
UNTIL LATE COULD STILL REACH THE 50S. HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS QUIET FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN...RISING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S WEDNESDAY TO THE
40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NW MN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA.
GFS/ECMWF KEEP QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH SFC TEMPS. AT
THIS POINT...HIGHS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S APPEARS LIKELY...WHILE MORE 60S ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AS THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MOSTLY VFR CIGS WERE OVER NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS BETWEEN 32 AND 40
HUNDRED FT. CIGS WERE HIGHER OVER EASTERN ND WITH MANY OB SITES
ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FT. HOWEVER A MVFR BAND WAS OVER RAIN BAND IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT MVFR BAND TO SHIFT NORTH WITH PRECIP
BAND. EXPECT CIGS TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1228 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO
THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. RAP LOW LEVEL
RH FIELDS ARE INDICATING THE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING AND HEADING
EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THIS PROCESS WILL
BE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY FORECASTED WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME. THE LATEST 12 Z KILN SOUNDING
HAD A 1000 - 850 MB THICKNESS OF 1292 M WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S (INCREASING THICKNESSES FORECASTED
THIS AFTERNOON). 850 MB TEMPS ALONE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO RISE QUICKLY. FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT DOWN
HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE
REDUCTIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE LONGEST. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION->
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO SRN
LOWER MI. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND
THEN ERODE THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WAA DEVELOPS.
IN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STAY UP TONIGHT BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NE TO NEAR 40 SW.
GOOD WAA DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH.
IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STAY TO OUR WEST TUESDAY
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NE TO NEAR 50 SW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING RIDGING
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE GULF
WILL BE WIDE OPEN SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THIS AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO PEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN. THUS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
12Z GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF WHEN THIS LIFT BACK NORTH. BUT WHEN IT
DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS NOW JUST CLEARED THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES AND
IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. KILN AND KDAY
WILL LIKELY GO VFR WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. COLUMBUS TAF SITES
PROBABLY HAVE UNTIL AROUND 22 Z BEFORE THEY SCATTER OUT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. MONDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND WAA MIXING WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
INCLUDED GUSTS AS PREVAILING BUT A COUPLE OF GUSTS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT.
OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
944 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO
THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. RAP LOW LEVEL
RH FIELDS ARE INDICATING THE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING AND HEADING
EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THIS PROCESS WILL
BE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY FORECASTED WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME. THE LATEST 12 Z KILN SOUNDING
HAD A 1000 - 850 MB THICKNESS OF 1292 M WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S (INCREASING THICKNESSES FORECASTED
THIS AFTERNOON). 850 MB TEMPS ALONE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO RISE QUICKLY. FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT DOWN
HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE
REDUCTIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE LONGEST. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION->
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO SRN
LOWER MI. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND
THEN ERODE THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WAA DEVELOPS.
IN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STAY UP TONIGHT BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NE TO NEAR 40 SW.
GOOD WAA DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH.
IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STAY TO OUR WEST TUESDAY
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NE TO NEAR 50 SW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING RIDGING
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE GULF
WILL BE WIDE OPEN SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THIS AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO PEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN. THUS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
12Z GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF WHEN THIS LIFT BACK NORTH. BUT WHEN IT
DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE INDIANA-OHIO
BORDER. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS IN
AROUND THE HIGH. BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA...HAVE
EXTENDED DURATION OF MVFR BY SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND LOWER CEILINGS DISSIPATE
BY 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS REPLACING LOW CLOUDS. CVG IS FORECAST TO HAVE SOUTH WINDS
AND VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
930 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS THROUGH 12Z AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. EARLIER
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVE
DISSIPATED. THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE IS VERY LOW WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM INDICATE A SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...QUANTIFIED BY MUCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.
BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
WILL HAVE AVIATION ISSUES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. STRATUS HAS
ENVELOPED AREA EAST OF THE AREA FROM BETWEEN KSPS AND KF05 TO KRCE
AND KBKN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS IN THE WEST. STRATUS WILL PERSIST
AND LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCES OF AFFECTING MANY OF
THE TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CHANCES NORTHWEST /ESPECIALLY KGAG AND
KWWR/ ARE LOWER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ARDMORE TO
JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE, JET MAX, AND SUBTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST, THE DRYLINE HAS NOW NUDGED ITS
WAY INTO NW OK AND IS BULGING INTO EXTREME SW OK AND WESTERN N TX.
CU ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT WHERE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED CIN PRESENT
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY NEAR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BULGE AND NORTHWEST OK, AS HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER E CO. ALL SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY WANE AS THEY MOVE NE INTO STABLE
AIRMASS.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, A MID TO UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX BEFORE 12Z, AND THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO AID IN LIFT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
UP/NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR THROUGH TOMORROW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES (~8 C/KM) ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW OVER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS, IN ADDITION TO MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT. THE
PREVIOUS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS, AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES ACROSS SW OK/W N TX FROM AROUND
06-09Z WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. AFTER WHICH, A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF OUR FA AND INTO TSA`S SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THIS COMPLEX,
BUT IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF ARE PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL RIGHT NOW AND MATCH WELL WITH
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL ASCENT TONIGHT SO THE FORECAST WAS WEIGHED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THEIR TRENDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF THE I44
CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING WED MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER SIGNFICANT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE RED RIVER WITHIN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONG MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL,
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WED, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHCS IMPACTING ZONES SOUTH OF I40 AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 68 54 66 / 40 90 50 70
HOBART OK 58 70 49 65 / 60 80 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 75 54 68 / 80 90 60 40
GAGE OK 50 66 42 63 / 20 30 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 60 66 48 65 / 30 80 40 70
DURANT OK 61 73 59 67 / 100 80 80 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-
041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
526 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL HAVE AVIATION ISSUES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. STRATUS HAS
ENVELOPED AREA EAST OF THE AREA FROM BETWEEN KSPS AND KF05 TO KRCE
AND KBKN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS IN THE WEST. STRATUS WILL PERSIST
AND LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCES OF AFFECTING MANY OF
THE TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CHANCES NORTHWEST /ESPECIALLY KGAG AND
KWWR/ ARE LOWER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ARDMORE TO
JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE, JET MAX, AND SUBTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST, THE DRYLINE HAS NOW NUDGED ITS
WAY INTO NW OK AND IS BULGING INTO EXTREME SW OK AND WESTERN N TX.
CU ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT WHERE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED CIN PRESENT
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY NEAR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BULGE AND NORTHWEST OK, AS HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER E CO. ALL SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY WANE AS THEY MOVE NE INTO STABLE
AIRMASS.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, A MID TO UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX BEFORE 12Z, AND THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO AID IN LIFT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
UP/NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR THROUGH TOMORROW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES (~8 C/KM) ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW OVER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS, IN ADDITION TO MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT. THE
PREVIOUS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS, AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES ACROSS SW OK/W N TX FROM AROUND
06-09Z WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. AFTER WHICH, A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF OUR FA AND INTO TSA`S SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THIS COMPLEX,
BUT IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF ARE PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL RIGHT NOW AND MATCH WELL WITH
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL ASCENT TONIGHT SO THE FORECAST WAS WEIGHED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THEIR TRENDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF THE I44
CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING WED MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER SIGNFICANT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE RED RIVER WITHIN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONG MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL,
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WED, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHCS IMPACTING ZONES SOUTH OF I40 AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 68 54 66 / 40 90 50 70
HOBART OK 58 70 49 65 / 60 80 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 75 54 68 / 80 90 60 40
GAGE OK 50 66 42 63 / 20 30 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 60 66 48 65 / 30 80 40 70
DURANT OK 61 73 59 67 / 80 80 80 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
920 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL BRING A STRING OF DRY...AND INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF
ANY CLEARING. FIRST VISUALS SHOW NWRN PA CLEARING NICELY WITH A
SMALL CHUNK OF THE LOWER SUSQ UNDER A HOLE IN THE CLOUD SHIELD.
SATELLITE LOOP AND HRRR SUGGEST WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION HOWEVER COULD ACT AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO
THIS MIXING OUT PROCESS SO AM NOT GOING TO GO FOR ANY KIND OF
RAPID CLEARING.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO
THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE SLIDING JUST OFF TO OUR SE TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH
MODERATELY STRONG WARMING ALOFT TO BRING THE CHC OF SOME AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG. THE NEGATING FACTOR FOR THIS WILL BE THE
LIKELY BKN LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL STREAM ESE FROM
THE GLAKES REGION.
LOW TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS OVER THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS /BUT
PROBABLY NOT TOO CLOSE TO RECORDS...WHICH ARE IN THE U70S TO L80S
AT KMDT AND KIPT ON THOSE RESPECTIVE DAYS/.
BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS
12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS....THIS WILL PUMP UP GEFS MEAN 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO AROUND 5760M AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO THE
LOWER 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA...AND 65 TO 70 IN MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NRN PENN. MEAN 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MAX FOR
KMDT WED IS 72F WITH THE MAX ENSEMBLE HIGH TEMP OF 75F.
AFTERWARD...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A
QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY /STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES TO
THE MISS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/ SE AND THRU THROUGH PA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA
WILL NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...9 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTH. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST WED NGT.
THU...RESTRICTIONS LKLY WITH RAIN NW 1/2.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME DAYBREAK FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-85
AND INVOF LAKES KEOWEE/HARTWELL. THIS IS BACKED UP TO SOME DEGREE
BY THE CONCURRENT NAM/GFS PROFILES...WHICH SHOW THE RETURN FLOW
WILL HAVE CREATED INCREASINGLY MOIST CONDITIONS WITH HEIGHT BY
THAT TIME. TEMPS MAY HAVE MIXED OUT A BIT TOO MUCH TO BUY THE
LAMP AND RAP SUGGESTIONS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...BUT I FELT IT
WAS WORTH INCLUDING A PATCHY FOG MENTION WITH THE UPDATE...GIVEN
THAT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. TEMPS AND DEWPTS HAVE
BEEN REVISED PER LATEST HRLY GUIDANCE. SAME SOURCE WOULD KEEP MINS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FAVORED BLEND...BUT I THINK
THE BLEND IS LIKELY ON TRACK...SO MINS WERE NOT CHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 230 PM...CONTINUED FAIR AND MILD THIS
EVENING WITH CIRRUS AND HIGH LVL AC CONTINUING TO TOP THE SE CONUS
UPPER RIDGING. OVERNIGHT...WITHIN THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT RETURN
FLOW...THE ADVECTION TOWARD OR DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU
REMAINS A PROBABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPSLOPE AREAS ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS TO THE
COAST ON TUESDAY WITH A RESULTANT UPWARD CREEP IN LLVL THICKNESS
VALUES. STILL PROBABLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND ALONG WITH
MORNING STRATOCU BLOSSOMING INTO SCT CU...BUT WILL STILL CALL IT
MOSTLY SUNNY. STILL PLANNING ON A TWO CATEGORY WARMUP FROM TODAY/S
MILD MAX TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CORRESPONDING SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO BRING A WARM MOIST FLOW
TO THE REGION. A VERY STRONG CUTOFF UPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO MEXICO...MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST INTO SOUTH
TEXAS /OR NORTHEAST MEXICO DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE/. A
CHANNELED AREA OF GULF MOISTURE WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE IT GETS PULLED
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL BE JUST
TO OUR WEST BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH...SHOULD BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC UPGLIDE TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES UNDER THE DOMINANT
UPPER RIDGE. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH AN INCREASING TREND ESPECIALLY IN LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED...WITH CONTINUED OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
SLIDES EAST AND OFF NEW ENGLAND AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW. THE LOW BEGINS TO
FILL IN AND LIFT WHILE THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND
LOSES SOME OF ITS DEFINITION. GUIDANCE REALLY DIFFERS ON HOW THE
CUTOFF PLAINS LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED EAST...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF PUSHING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE GFS BRINGING
A FAST-MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST /MORE ON THIS
BELOW/...BUT IN BOTH CASES THE END RESULT IS THE SAME WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW FINALLY GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HOWEVER...TIMING IS VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE GFS BRINGING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING
/AT WHICH POINT THE GFS PRETTY MUCH HAS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA/. WENT WITH AS CLOSE TO AN ENSEMBLE BLEND AS
POSSIBLE WITH GENERALLY MID-RANGE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING FAR MORE BINARY THAN THAT WITH ONE
DAY THIS WEEKEND BEING FAIRLY WET AND THE OTHER NOT SO BAD.
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPPER SHORTWAVE ON THE GFS KICKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PHASES INTO MORE OF A SINGLE ENTITY
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES RATHER THAN CUTOFF SYSTEMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
IS PROGGED ON MONDAY. INCIDENTALLY...WHILE THE MASS FIELDS ARE
VASTLY DIFFERENT...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF ACTUALLY ISN`T ALL THAT
DIFFERENT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AS ITS SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF
LOW /THAT WAS SLOWER TO LIFT OUT/ IS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS POINT...SO GUIDANCE BLENDS DO ALL
ADVERTISE A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ON MONDAY.
THE OTHER CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SYSTEM /OR SYSTEMS DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE/ IS INCREASE IN THUNDER CHANCES. WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...SBCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 500-700J/KG
SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING...WHEREAS WITH THE ECMWF
SUNDAY WOULD BE THE BETTER CHANCE. AGAIN FAVORED A BLEND BUT CAPPED
THUNDER WORDING AT CHANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AND
WILL HAVE TO NARROW THIS DOWN AS WE GET CLOSER.
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH WITH TEMPS
LIKELY KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT AND
WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN /DEPENDING ON WHICH DAY THE
FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH/.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BUT REMAINS BASICALLY
STATIONARY...EXPECT CONTINUED SCT /OCNL BKN/ CIRRUS TO COME
AND GO OVER THE FIELD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY IN
THIS PATTERN...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOW END GUSTS IN THE LATE
MORNING. WHILE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED NEAR DAYBREAK...THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING ENOUGH FOR ANY AT THE FIELD.
ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BUT
CHANNELED TOWARD S AT KAVL...AND PERHAPS WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN
THE MRNG HRS. UNDER THE FLOW OFF THE GULF...MOISTURE RETURNS ABOVE
THE SFC...MAKING PROFILES SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG FORMATION NEAR
DAYBREAK. WHILE CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE LOW...GOOD RADIATION SUGGESTS
THEY MAY BE REACHED IN OUTLYING AND SHELTERED AREAS. KAND IS THE
ONLY SITE WITH AN IFR THREAT...SUPPORTED BY ONLY SOME GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE KEPT THIS MENTION IN TEMPO. THE SAME SOURCE OF MOISTURE
MAY ALLOW A RETURN OF SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS HERE AND THERE...AND
PERHAPS A STRATOCU DECK FORMING NEAR THE SRN FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. CHANCE OF CIGS FROM THESE CLOUDS IS UNMENTIONABLY LOW
AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST WED. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
CHANCES OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW-MOVING
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 79%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 79%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 94% MED 79%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
243 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL LIFT DUE TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS SW VA AND N TN. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS SW VA AND N TN. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION.
THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW VA AND N TN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS LIFT THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH PW VALUES AROUND A QUARTER
INCH...THEREFORE...EXPECT CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIT MILDER IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. BY WEDNESDAY...THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. BY THURSDAY...WE WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST...ALLOWING THE APPROACH OF A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
HUNG UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DETAILS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IS
LACKING. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THOUGH...MAY ALSO SEE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING
MENTIONED MAINLY AROUND THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 35 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 38 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 34 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS WEST OF A COMANCHE
TO CLEBURNE TO SHERMAN AS OF 2330Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT INTO THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...THUS HAVE PLACED A TEMPO 3SM TSRA IN THE
METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 00-04Z PERIOD. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER. OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CEILING
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN INITIAL BATCH OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE IS POSITIONED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IT HAS MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS SWEETWATER BUT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING NOW
APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH IS HELPING TO SHARPEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED. LATEST LOOK AT RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES INDICATES THAT A SHARP CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4KM NAM ALSO
SHOWS AN ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE ALTHOUGH IT COULD PUT DOWN ANOTHER BAND OF AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. IN ALL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL TONIGHT IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35W AND AREAS
WEST.
TUESDAY...IS OUR MAIN DAY IN QUESTION REGARDING THE FORECAST AS IT
COULD VERY WELL BE MOSTLY QUIET OR RATHER ACTIVE. IT IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO POPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL MAIN AREAS OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WEST OF I-35. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A RATHER UNPERTURBED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WEAKLY
CAPPED. THIS SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES BACK WEAKLY IN THE MID LEVELS
LIKELY INDICATING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE...THEN IT MAY BE A
QUIET DAY...ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM. IF THE SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT
EXIST AND WE HAVE ANY LIFT AT ALL...THEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ON THE AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY
ANY DATA FROM 12 OR 18Z SOUNDINGS TOMORROW CAN OFFER. FOR NOW...WE
WILL SIDE WITH LOWER OVERALL POPS AND MONITOR THE THREAT CLOSELY.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WARM ADVECTION STREAMER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.
THE NEXT LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE TIME WHEN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...EAST OF THE METROPLEX FOR
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
COULD SEE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
DISCREPANCIES GROW REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. WE CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 75 60 68 57 / 80 50 100 60 50
WACO, TX 66 77 59 70 56 / 60 40 100 60 50
PARIS, TX 62 72 61 68 58 / 70 90 100 90 50
DENTON, TX 64 74 59 68 56 / 80 50 100 60 50
MCKINNEY, TX 65 74 60 67 56 / 80 50 100 70 50
DALLAS, TX 68 75 60 69 58 / 70 50 100 70 50
TERRELL, TX 67 75 60 69 58 / 60 60 100 80 50
CORSICANA, TX 65 76 61 69 58 / 50 50 100 70 50
TEMPLE, TX 66 78 59 70 56 / 60 40 100 50 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 62 77 57 68 54 / 80 50 80 50 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD SPREADING EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE. IT HAS BEEN A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...THOUGH THE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE PREVENTING RECORD HIGHS. A FEW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RH VALUES HOVERING AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 25 MPH THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND PRONE AREAS WERE NOT A PROBLEM TODAY WITH CLOUDS
INHIBITING LOW-LEVEL MIXING.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN UPSTREAM...SO BELIEVE THE HRRR SOLUTION WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. ADDED SOME LOW
END POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT WE
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. TOMORROW MAY
BE QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF I25 WITH SBCAPES AROUND 250-500
J/KG. WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING...ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS IN
THOSE AREAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES. SNOW IS LIKELY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES THRU
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. A SOLID 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. CONSIDERED AN ADZY
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT EXPECT IMPACTS TO BE LOW OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WE
COULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND EXCELLENT H7 FRONTOGENESIS. WITH REGARD TO QPF...THE GFS AND ECM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH ALONG/EAST OF I25. NAM IS
AN OUTLIER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. TEND
TO FAVOR WESTERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IS CHALLENGING WITH THE VERY WARM
PRE-FRONTAL AIR. GFS/NAM WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGESTS A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW IN CHEYENNE BY MID EVENING...THE FAR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. ELEVATIONS AT
OR BELOW 4500 FEET MAY SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. GENERALLY EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
ONE INCH...BUT COULD SEE A LOT MORE IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. DECREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SPLIT PATTERN ALOFT
AT MID-WEEK WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DOMINATING
THE CWA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ON WED
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 50S. NOT
MUCH CHANGE FOR THURS AND FRI WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING
AS A MEAN RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS & UPPER
MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE
INCREASING WITH 700MB WINDS 40-45 KT THURS. WINDS DECREASE A BIT
FRI. THE PROLONGED DRY PATTERN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER THREAT MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. CHANGES OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE
MAIN ENERGY PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH
A MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS LOWERING WHILE
SPREADING WEST TO EAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-15 KT FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GUSTS OF 25-35 KT
WILL ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO CARBON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY AT RAWLINS AFTER
15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 10-20 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEYOND TODAY...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LIKELY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
323 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WELL ADVERTISED AND WELL ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED AND NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUES TO
WAFFLE A LITTLE BIT ON THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A GOOD
OLD FASHIONED SPRING SOAKING AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED.
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS INDEED CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW AND
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
GULF OF MEXICO IS WIDE OPEN AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS ALSO STREAMING IN FROM
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AS STRONG SOUTHWEST ALOFT IS NOW ESTABLISHED
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OR MORE CONTINUING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND IS HANDLED
WELL BY BOTH THE HRRR AND 4.0KM WRF SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWING THEIR LEAD
...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED THIS MORNING WITH FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN AROUND MID DAY OVER THE
WEST AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE METRO AREA.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY REACH FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...SOME QUITE STRONG...WILL KICK OUT OF THE LOW BRINGING
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSES BUT RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW SOME RUN OFF TO
OCCUR BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE PLENTY OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER FAR SW TEXAS...WHILE A WEAK STALLED FRONT WILL SET UP OVER AR.
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL BRING HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP A SCENARIO OF PERIODS OF
RAIN TO AFFECT AR...OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE SEEN. THE
FORECAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO WESTERN AR
IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY...4 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
EASTERN AR.
ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER
EASTERN TX...WHILE THE STALL BOUNDARY WAS STILL OVER AR. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AR...BUT WE DO SEE A BIT LESS LIFT
INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES DO LOWER A BIT...AS WELL AS RAIN
AMOUNTS. INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT...WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS THE
LOW BACK. SOME CHANCES OF RAIN WILL STILL BE SEEN SATURDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
BACK TOGETHER AND MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF AR AND ENDING ANY
RAIN. ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM THAN THE
EURO...AND SOME LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...TO 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
60S.
ONE ISSUE THAT MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER
AR WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
GOLF COASTS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST LIMITS SOME OF THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY...AND WE END UP WITH A LITTLE LESS RAIN THAN FORECASTED.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 60 69 61 / 70 90 90 90
CAMDEN AR 73 64 74 63 / 90 90 90 90
HARRISON AR 67 58 67 57 / 90 90 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 62 70 61 / 90 90 90 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 62 71 62 / 80 90 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 75 63 76 64 / 70 70 70 90
MOUNT IDA AR 69 62 68 60 / 90 90 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 59 69 59 / 80 90 90 90
NEWPORT AR 70 60 70 61 / 50 80 80 90
PINE BLUFF AR 74 62 74 63 / 70 80 80 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 61 69 61 / 90 90 90 90
SEARCY AR 71 61 70 61 / 70 90 90 90
STUTTGART AR 72 62 72 62 / 60 80 80 90
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...59
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
ALSO BE MUCH WARMER...ONLY SLIGHT WARMING ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/NW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. WITHIN THAT THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO VORT
MAXES/LOBES. AS OF THIS WRITING...ONE OF THEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER AND WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE OTHER VORT MAX
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND WAS PRODUCING SOME
MODEST CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR AND OFF OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THOSE LOBES DUMBELLING AROUND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR YUMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE
OVERALL SYSTEM. WITH THE BORDERLAND VORT MAX/LOBE MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THIS MORNING...LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWERS AFFECTING
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING HRRR AND THE NCEP WRF/S ARE LESS GENEROUS AND PRETTY MUCH
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR HRRR PRIOR TO 12Z THIS
MORNING. AN EXCEPTION IS THE NCAR ENSEMBLE BUT IT HAS NOT HANDLED THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY WELL. PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE MODELS
END QPF THIS EVENING AS THINGS SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. IN LIGHT OF
ONGOING TRENDS...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
DESERTS THIS MORNING WITH POPS PRETTY MUCH LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY LIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR PHOENIX AREA. SREF
DEPICTS SOME VERY MODEST CAPE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER MODELS. ALREADY SOME LIGHTNING OBSERVED OVER
NORTHERN SONORA. THUS INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA TODAY AS WELL AS SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMING
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE MORE MUTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX WHERE THINGS WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVEL BE NEAR 5500 FEET THIS MORNING RISING QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THERE WILL BE LIMITED AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS. A STRAY SHOWER (BUT MOSTLY VIRGA) COULD PASS THROUGH THE
PHOENIX METRO LATE TONIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K
FT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER SIMILAR TO MONDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF VARIABLE OR
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE AND ISOLD SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AREA. SFC WINDS
WILL FAVOR A W/NW DIRECTION WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF GUSTINESS NEAR
25KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AOA 10K FT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
445 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DRAG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACROSS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN
CT...LONG ISLAND AND NYC. AS A WEAK LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WINDS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL...BUT DO EXPECT THE
FRONT TO GET HUNG UP IN THE HILLS NW OF THE CITY. THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL...AND SO HIGH TEMPS ARE
CLOSE TO 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND
A COUPLE OF DEG WARMER FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. PER THIS GUIDANCE AND
LATEST HRRR...TEMPS NW OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR
JUST SURPASS THE 70 DEGREE MARK. EVEN WHERE THE FRONT DOES GET
THROUGH...MOST OF NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE...WITH MOSTLY 50S...THOUGH HRRR INDICATES THE
NORTH SHORE OF WRN LONG ISLAND AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR
SRN CT MAY ALSO SEE LOWER 60S.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE H8 WARM FRONT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS
THROUGH BEFORE UPPER RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
NYC METRO AND NE NJ COULD SEE SOME CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MILD
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INVOF NYC...
IN THE 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR SRN CT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE...WITH 60S FOR LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AND
LOWER/MID 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH. USING WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AND ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEG...
HIGHLY URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEEING
HIGHS APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AND THEN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NEAR RECORD TEMPS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. TEMPS ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 60S.
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND MOST SHOWERS
DRY UP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
AS COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR OR OVER THE AREA TODAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SSE-SE FLOW
UNDER 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
RETURNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LATE TONIGHT...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN FOG AND/OR POSSIBLY STRATUS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL SEEING 5-FT SEAS AT 44017 WITH A S SWELL...SO EXTENDED SCA E
OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 7 AM.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS COULD COME FRI INTO SAT ON THE OCEAN
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD ON WED...MAINLY NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THU SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE AVG. AWAY FROM THE COAST. WED AND THU WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH TEMPS 15-25 DEG ABOVE AVG INLAND.
HIGH TEMP RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR EXCEEDED AS FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 64
ISLIP64 2000 66
LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71
KENNEDY 67 1973 64
CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 75
NEWARK 74 2000 76
THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 62
ISLIP62 2006 63
LAGUARDIA 74 2006 70
KENNEDY 71 2006 65
CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 71
NEWARK 76 2006 72
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
435 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEK...
REST OF THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A VERY THIN LAYER AROUND 850MB/5000FT AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 0.60" AND RATHER DRY
LAYERS ABOVE AND BELOW WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE. BOTTOMLINE, NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY IN THESE
CLOUDS BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T SEE INVERSION LIFTING PER CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY RAIN TODAY OUTSIDE MAY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
BOTTOMLINE THESE AIN`T RAIN CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY OUTSIDE AREAS OF SUN TODAY.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER FL, EAST COAST, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE 590-592DM JUST TO OUR EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH ARE
AROUND 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS
THE AREA.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOULD LEAD TO RECORD WARMTH. BUT THE WINDS AND SCU FIELDS
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT
REMAIN AROUND 70 OR INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MAY BE MID 70S NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LATER IN THE WEEK.
BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SEVERAL VISITORS IN THE AREA WITH SPRING
BREAK UPON US, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT REGARDING
THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. THE HIGH
RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTS
TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BOTH MODELS TRY TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND IS SLOWER, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE TREND OF MODELS TO OFTEN
TOO QUICKLY BRING DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS, FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION REFLECTING INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE GULF AND BAYS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BEING BORDERLINE WILL RE ASSESS LATER
TODAY. IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING,
THEN AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
PUT IN ITS PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY ALONG ATLANTIC
WATERS RESULTING IN HIGHER SEAS TOO AND IF SO IS THE CASE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY BE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 71 79 75 / 10 10 0 10
MIAMI 78 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 81 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
344 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. EYES
IMMEDIATELY GO TO THE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW DIGGING
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN MS VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
TROUGH IS STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH ZONAL PROGRESS. THE DEEPNESS OF
THIS TROUGH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER AS THE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROMOTE AMPLIFYING/SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL ONLY HELP SLOW THE ZONAL
PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH AND ACT AS LONG TERM PROTECTION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA/GA/NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE WORK WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL E/SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE NOW REALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR
HEADS...WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
RATHER BENIGN WITH STACKED RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE...AND ONLY
BECOMING STRONGER WITH TIME. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING BY THE END
OF TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESSENTIALLY PREVENTING
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. THEREFORE POPS ARE ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH POPS ARE ZERO...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS MAKING
THERE WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITHIN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...MOST SUN TODAY IS
LIKELY TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE SUNNY
BREAKS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
MORE PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE
LAYER SUPPORTING THESE CLOUDS IS RATHER SHALLOW. GOOD CHANCE WE
ARE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS LAYER BY MID AFTERNOON...AND
ESSENTIALLY ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM THE BOTTOM UP.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE BREAKS OF SUN DOWN SOUTH AS WE HEAD
LATER INTO THE DAY. DESPITE THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS...OVERALL
INSOLATION WILL BE HIGH...AND TEMPS WILL RESPOND. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING IT APPEARS THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW A DEFINED SEA- BREEZE TO DEVELOP. MAY SEE A
FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS SLACKEN IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OR BRIEFLY
FLIP ONSHORE...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY INLAND PENETRATION.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
SEA-BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-4...AND THEN THE GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S FAR NORTH AND
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST SPOTS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER...TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. LOCATIONS SUCH AS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE
ISLANDS/CAPES OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF COOLER BAY AND HARBOR WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
HOLD SWAY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI. A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS TX WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ROBUST
AT TIMES ON THE GULF.
SAT-SUN-MON...UP TO THIS POINT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
BUT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND. THEY ARE SIMILAR
WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING FLATTENING AND SLIDING EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER OVER THE CONUS...THE ECMWF
SLOWLY MOVES THE CUTOFF LOW EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND DAMPENS IT OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS TRACKS THE CUTOFF NORTHEAST AND FASTER
BUT HAS A SECOND LOW THAT FORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES
EAST. IN EITHER CASE THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH... WITH
THE ECMWF RUNNING ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS SLOW. BOTH MODELS END WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND GENERALLY IN PLACE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
SHOWERS (POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT) BUT WITH THE TIMING SLOWED...FAVORING
THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. BKN STRATOCU
MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAFS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT.
THESE SCT-BKN CIGS ABOVE VFR LIMITS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. E/SE WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY MID/LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 14-18KTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS SUBSIDE TOWARD
SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS POSITION OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING A STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STRONG HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
PATTERN WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS
AROUND THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WINDS BECOME GUSTY LATE EACH MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT DAYTIME MIXING AND STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 76 61 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 79 62 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The weather pattern today will be dominated by persistent warm
advection flows. The 850mb LLJ will be primarily focused west of IL
today, with our western areas having the better chances of seeing
increasing moisture content in the boundary layer. The latest HRRR
and RAP guidance are pointed toward mainly isolated showers and
storms affecting our counties west of I-55 today, in response to a
shortwave that will be triggering a wave of showers/storms focused
just west of our forecast area. That wave is projected to pass by to
our west-northwest this morning, with a general break in the precip
chances this afternoon before showers/storms return tonight.
Instability parameters in the latest RAP model show MUCAPE values
climbing to 200-400 J/kg in our far western counties from Rushville
to Galesburg during mid-morning, with a sharp decline to the east
Little to no MUCAPE is indicated along the Illinois river and
eastward during that time. The higher instability axis shifts west
of our counties this afternoon. Have updated the precip chances
today to peak during the morning as the shortwave affects western
IL. We kept our PoPs in the chance category, with isolated storms
mentioned.
Despite a blanket of clouds through the day, the mild south winds
gusting to 30 mph will help boost high temps into the upper 60s to
around 70 again today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Moisture-rich plume of air starting to set up from the western Gulf
of Mexico this morning, with precipitable water values progged to
reach around 1.25 inches by evening and range from 1.4-1.6 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday. Large upper low currently over the
northern Gulf of California helping to set up this moisture feed,
and the low is expected to be in north central Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Latest model runs have been focusing a more northern track
with this low, drifting it into northern Texas late week. With a
large high building off the southeast U.S., our frontal boundary
will be in no particular hurry to exit the region, with a slow
passage Thursday and Thursday evening. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will help bring surges of heavier showers Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. At the current time, the
heaviest rainfall axis remains centered roughly between the Illinois
River and the I-57 corridor with potential for 2-3 inches through
Thursday night. Will continue with the Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and
defer any potential flood headlines to the next shift, since the
heaviest rain is still aways out.
PoP-wise, main area of showers will be lifting northeast out of
Missouri this evening, with a secondary wave overnight further
south. Will have the categorical PoP`s from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward this evening, then spread them east overnight.
PoP`s will remain in the 85-95% range through Thursday morning over
most of the CWA, but will see some decrease from the northwest in
the afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF models are a bit quicker in
drying out the northwest CWA by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS`s
quicker handling of the upper low results in conditions never really
drying out until a brief break Friday morning. Am leaning against
the latter scenario, which seems too fast of a movement for a cutoff
low that size. High pressure over the Great Lakes will feed a drying
northeast flow into the area Thursday night, and did focus a period
of dry conditions over much of the CWA by late night. The ECMWF
would keep us dry into Friday evening as well, but have kept some
lower chance PoP`s in deference to the Canadian model, which spreads
some light rain northward during the afternoon. Periods of showers
are likely into the weekend as the remnants of the low lift
northeast.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the
period. The coolest weather on Friday will still only drop highs
into the 60 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
Large area of convection over Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
moving mainly north with the bulk of the activity remaining
to the west of the TAF sites during the early morning hours,
closer to the better forcing associated with the low level jet.
We still could see some isolated showers develop in the broad
southerly flow across the region by morning with our best chances
for more widespread rainfall holding off until later tomorrow
night. Until then, mostly VFR conditions are expected into the
afternoon hours. Currently, VFR cigs continue with bases around
5000 feet with RAP soundings not showing much variation from that
thru Tuesday with a gradual downward trend towards MVFR cigs by
late afternoon or just after 00z when more widespread precip will
be approaching the TAF sites. Surface winds will be gusty out of
the south tonight at 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts around 25 kts.
South winds continue on Tuesday at 12 to 17 kts, with gusts
continuing around 25 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1130 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
The upper wave which brought scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to our area this morning has shifted well off
to our northeast this evening. 00z ILX sounding exhibiting
an impressive inversion in the wake of the shortwave at 800 mb
with steep lapse rates seen in the 700-500 mb layer. Most of the
operational models continue to keep the bulk of the overnight and
early morning shower activity mainly to our west. In fact, the
latest NAM-WRF model keeps the bulk of the shower activity west of
the Illinois River through most of Tuesday.
The latest surface map was showing low to mid 60 dew points across
the Southern Plains this evening with some of that air headed our
way. Our dew points have climbed into the lower 40s east to the
lower 50s far west this evening and that increase in low level
moisture combined with southerly winds and extensive mid and high
level cloud cover will keep temperatures quite mild with most of
our area staying in the 50s overnight. PWAT values by tomorrow
afternoon and evening are forecast to rise to around 1.3 inches,
well above normal for the first week of March. It still appears
the more concentrated area of showers and isolated storms will
shift northeast into at least the western half of the forecast
area Tuesday night into Wednesday. That will be one of several
rounds of showers and storms that will occur over our area this
week.
Have made only minor adjustments to the precip chances across the
west and tried to pull back on the slights further east during
Tuesday morning as it appears the bulk of the better forcing
during this time frame will remain along or west of the Illinois
River valley. Update should be out by 915 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
While one minor short-wave trough has lifted into the southern Great
Lakes early this afternoon, a second more potent wave is evident on
19z/1pm water vapor imagery over Colorado. Short-wave ridging
between these two features will lead to dry conditions across
central Illinois this afternoon and evening, with any precip holding
off until late tonight. Convection is already beginning to blossom
ahead of the Colorado wave over north-central Texas, and this
activity will track N/NE into the Mississippi River Valley tonight.
Trajectory of convection will keep it generally along/west of the
Mississippi River until well after midnight when scattered
showers/thunder may nudge into west-central Illinois. Models are in
fairly good agreement, with the NAM keeping the KILX CWA dry until
after 09z. Have therefore gone with a dry forecast across the board
this evening, followed by gradually increasing PoPs after midnight.
Have included slight chances as far east as the I-55 corridor by
dawn Tuesday, with higher chances confined to the Illinois River
Valley. Breezy and mild conditions will persist, with overnight low
temperatures remaining in the middle 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. A substantial plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain
in the vicinity of central IL for much of the upcoming work week,
interacting with a frontal boundary. Model runs have shifted the
axis of heaviest precipitation northward somewhat for midweek to
bring roughly 2 to 2.5 inches forecast by Thursday afternoon from I-
70 northward throughout central IL. To the south...totals should be
more like 1 to 2 inches through Thursday afternoon
For Tuesday...shower and thunderstorm activity should start the day
toward western IL as a low and attendant frontal boundary remain far
off to the northwest. More extensive and heavier precipitation is
expected to begin Tuesday night as the frontal boundary edges closer
and the precipitable water plume...forecast around 1.3 inches (near
mid-march maximum)...shifts over the area. This will allow a series
of disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow to bring periods
of moderate to heavy rain. The heaviest time period now looks to be
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
In the longer range, the ultimate southeastward movement of the
frontal boundary and the handling of an upper low moving out of
Mexico late week lead to significant uncertainty in the
precipitation forecast Friday to Saturday. The ECMWF moves the
frontal boundary furthest southeast and the low movement slowest.
The slower solution seems the most likely given the large scale
pattern setting up. Have blended in the slower solution offered by
the ECMWF, but overall uncertainty in the rain forecast that far out
is high at this point, and have included at least a slight chance
for precipitation Thursday night through Saturday morning. For
Friday...that would mean substantial chances for precipitation would
remain south of I-72. The upper low ejecting northeastward over the
weekend brings a widespread chance of precipitation back to all of
central and southeast IL Saturday through Monday.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s. Lows mainly in the 50s...but
potentially dropping into the 40s Friday through Monday depending on
how far southeast the frontal boundary manages to shift by late in
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
Large area of convection over Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
moving mainly north with the bulk of the activity remaining
to the west of the TAF sites during the early morning hours,
closer to the better forcing associated with the low level jet.
We still could see some isolated showers develop in the broad
southerly flow across the region by morning with our best chances
for more widespread rainfall holding off until later tomorrow
night. Until then, mostly VFR conditions are expected into the
afternoon hours. Currently, VFR cigs continue with bases around
5000 feet with RAP soundings not showing much variation from that
thru Tuesday with a gradual downward trend towards MVFR cigs by
late afternoon or just after 00z when more widespread precip will
be approaching the TAF sites. Surface winds will be gusty out of
the south tonight at 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts around 25 kts.
South winds continue on Tuesday at 12 to 17 kts, with gusts
continuing around 25 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
...Updated Short term and Long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
A cold front will cross southwest Kansas between 06z and 09z
Tuesday. As this front passes the southerly winds will shift to
the northwest and drier air in the lower levels will begin to
advect into western Kansas. At this time based on the timing of
the cold front low clouds/status is not anticipated at DDC and HYS
but there may be a brief period of scattered clouds in the
IFR/LIFR category over the next few hours. The cold front will
move into the Texas panhandle and south central Kansas by morning
where it will become nearly stationary during the day on Tuesday.
Northwest winds behind this front will continue through the day
across southwest Kansas at 10 to 15 knots. An upper level
disturbance lifting northeast across Oklahoma into Kansas early
today will spread mid and high level moisture back into western
Kansas early Tuesday. Based on NAM BUFR soundings along with the
HRRR and RAP the ceilings that will be developing after 15z
Tuesday will be at or above the 3000 ft AGL so VFR conditions are
expected through Tuesday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 62 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 60 37 60 37 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 63 38 62 37 / 10 20 20 20
HYS 63 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 67 45 65 42 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1147 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
CA/ NORTHERN BAJA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
DRIFTING E OVER EASTERN CO. DOWNSTAIRS A DRY LINE CURVED FROM
AROUND KHLC THRU ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN KPTT & KDDC TO JUST W OF
KGAG. ACROSS THE KICT NEIGHBORHOOD...SLY 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS
CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT MID & UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL &
EASTERN KS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPED ALONG OR JUST WEST OF
THE DRYLINE LOCATED FROM KHYS TO KP23. THIS ISOLATED SUPERCELL
CONTINUES TO RACE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS KSLN. NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM TO STAY STRONG OR SEVERE MUCH LONGER AS IT
MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE SURFACE BASED AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL KS. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN TO KEEP IT A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT HAIL THREAT WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY PEA SIZE.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CURRENTLY OVER
SE KS INTO WRN MO. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIDING THE COMPLEX
OF STORMS IN ERN OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX
TO MOVE NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SE KS LATE TONIGHT.
COULD SEE A LULL IN THE CONVECTION FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS GOING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS THIS AREA MAY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUE MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) EXTREME FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL ALONG & W OF K-14 UNTIL 7 PM
CST. 2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG & JUST E OF DRY LINE
THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT:
THE FIRST 2 ISSUES ARE THE RED FLAG WARNING & WIND ADVISORY THAT
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS & MOST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG & W OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STRUGGLING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREAS WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAGS HOISTED AS SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN STIFF THIS EVENING.
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SW FLANK OF OUR CWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OVER COMANCHE...BARBER & PRATT
COUNTIES ~6 PM. FOR NOW THE CAP LOCATED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER IS
TIGHT OVER OUR SWRN-MOST COUNTIES...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE FROM
EASTERN OK TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/SD BORDER A "PACIFIC"
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TOWARD CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
THE GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER INTO
SOUTHEAST KS.
TUE-WED NIGHT:
AS THE FAR SWRN MID-UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK E TOWARD THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN W TX/TX
PANHANDLE REGION. THE FRONT WOULD STALL THEN UNDERGO WARM FRONTO-
GENESIS ON TUE. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING N THEN NW ACROSS EASTERN KS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING FURTHER INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. AS THE SFC CYCLONE PUSHES E ACROSS E TX...WIDESPREAD
RAINS WOULD WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE WITH SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN
THE BENEFICIARY OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.
THU & THU NIGHT:
THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREE ON IT`S TRACK WITH GFS
FURTHER N OVER E TX THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT POSITIONED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WOULD OF COURSE HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. CONSIDERING THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE
SITUATED FROM THE GULF TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SLOWER
ECMWF IS PREFERRED. AS SUCH WRAP-AROUND RAINS WOULD SPREAD FURTHER
W ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THU NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WITH SOMEWHAT OF ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE GREATER UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD RESIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE POSSIBLY GRAZING CHANUTE THROUGH
ABOUT 09Z/3AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY FILL IN ONCE AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...DUE TO
DIURNAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST
AND AFFECT THE REGION BY AROUND 15Z/9AM TUESDAY MORNING...AS DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS. HANDLED THIS SITUATION WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
ADK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE CONTINUED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER INDICES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE WORK-WEEK. WILL HOWEVER
KEEP THE RED FLAGS HOISTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135
UNTIL 7 PM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 66 49 62 / 30 50 50 40
HUTCHINSON 54 66 45 62 / 20 30 30 20
NEWTON 55 65 47 61 / 20 50 50 40
ELDORADO 57 66 49 62 / 30 70 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 66 51 63 / 30 70 60 50
RUSSELL 45 65 41 62 / 10 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 46 64 42 62 / 10 10 20 0
SALINA 54 67 45 62 / 20 20 30 10
MCPHERSON 54 65 45 61 / 20 30 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 60 68 54 63 / 70 90 80 80
CHANUTE 59 68 53 63 / 70 90 80 80
IOLA 58 66 52 62 / 70 90 80 80
PARSONS-KPPF 59 68 53 63 / 70 90 80 80
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1132 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
At 00z Tuesday a 500mb low was located over southern California
with a weaker upper level disturbance evident over far southwest
Texas and southern New Mexico. Over the Central Plains a surface
cold front was located in Nebraska with a dry line extending south
from the area of low pressure into central Kansas and far western
Oklahoma. A cold front stretched from southwest Nebraska into
southeast Colorado. 850mb temperatures ahead of the surface cold
front was +18c at Amarillo, Dodge City and North Platte. Behind
the cold front Rapid City reported an 850mb temperature of +7.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
A slight chance of thunderstorms will remain possible ahead of the
aforementioned dry line tonight. Otherwise expect mostly clear
skies across the forecast area. Meanwhile, an intensifying area of
low pressure and associated cold front will move out of eastern
Colorado and through the CWA by sunrise tomorrow. This feature
will shift winds to more of a northwesterly direction. The upper
level low currently over the Desert southwest will dig southward
and move across northern Mexico tomorrow then into the Southern
Plains tomorrow night. Mid level moisture will increase as this
feature shifts eastward leading to mid level clouds enveloping the
area by tomorrow afternoon. An area of low pressure will also
intensify across the Southern Plains tomorrow as this feature
approaches with winds across western Kansas shifting to more of a
northeasterly direction. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
progged to range from around freezing along the KS/CO border to
around 50 degrees across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look
to range from around 60 degrees along the KS/CO border to upper
60s across central and south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
The upper level low will move into southwest Texas Tuesday night
into Wednesday and slowly trek across the remainder of Texas
through Friday. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary at the surface looks
to extend northeastward across Texas, Oklahoma, and into portions
of Kansas. Where this boundary actually sets up is the main
challenge and pin pointing how much precipitation will fall across
the CWA. South central Kansas looks to have the best chance of
precipitation through Friday with the remainder of the CWA
remaining dry. There are a few models that show precipitation
falling farther north but have stuck with the solution to keep
this activity to the south. Skies will be mostly cloudy Tuesday
night with decreasing cloudiness Wednesday and continue into this
weekend. The only exception to this will be across south central
Kansas where clouds may stick around due to the aforementioned
frontal boundary. Winds look to generally be from the north to
northeast through Friday as an area of low pressure remains south
of the area. The Upper level low then ejects northeastward this
weekend with an upper level shortwave moving into the Western
United States. Weak ridging will be in place above the Plains
during this time frame leading to dry conditions across western
Kansas. As for temperatures, highs look to generally be in the 60s
through Friday then increase into the lower 70s this weekend. Lows
are expected to range from the lower 30s across west central
Kansas to mid 40s across south central Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
A cold front will cross southwest Kansas between 06z and 09z
Tuesday. As this front passes the southerly winds will shift to
the northwest and drier air in the lower levels will begin to
advect into western Kansas. At this time based on the timing of
the cold front low clouds/status is not anticipated at DDC and HYS
but there may be a brief period of scattered clouds in the
IFR/LIFR category over the next few hours. The cold front will
move into the Texas panhandle and south central Kansas by morning
where it will become nearly stationary during the day on Tuesday.
Northwest winds behind this front will continue through the day
across southwest Kansas at 10 to 15 knots. An upper level
disturbance lifting northeast across Oklahoma into Kansas early
today will spread mid and high level moisture back into western
Kansas early Tuesday. Based on NAM BUFR soundings along with the
HRRR and RAP the ceilings that will be developing after 15z
Tuesday will be at or above the 3000 ft AGL so VFR conditions are
expected through Tuesday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 41 64 40 65 / 10 10 20 10
GCK 37 62 36 64 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 37 60 37 62 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 39 63 38 64 / 0 10 20 10
HYS 43 63 39 63 / 0 10 10 10
P28 51 67 45 65 / 20 40 30 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
112 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED BREAK UP OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY...SO EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS AND THIS CLEARING TO
ALLOW FOR QUITE A COOLDOWN ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING IT QUIET THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WEEK AND THAT IS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE TONIGHT. THE ONLY ITEM OF
INTEREST TONIGHT HAS BEEN THE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AS USUAL THE
DEEPER VALLEYS ARE DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TEMP WISE. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ALSO SOME BREAKS SEEN ON THE
IR SAT. ALL THAT SAID...GOING TO KEEP THE TEMP SPLITS GOING. NOT
ONLY THAT BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE COULD SEE
CONTINUED CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING...AND THIS WOULD
ONLY FURTHER REINFORCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY WITH SAT DATA AND
TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. KENTUCKY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING IN WARMER
AIR AND SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. THIS RISE WAS DESPITE
ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY AS A HIGH LAYER OF RATHER THICK CLOUDS
MOVED OVER THE STATE. AT 3 PM...READINGS HAD MADE IT TO THE LOW
AND MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OR SO.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING DEEP AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...KEEPING THE RIDGE STRONG OVER
THE AREA LONGER. KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM MEANING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR OUR AREA. WHILE SOME SHORTWAVES...LIKE THE ONE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...THE
STRONGER ONES WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THEY THIN AND BREAK UP HEADING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS...AND SOME MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
SHOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAY THIS MORNING. EVEN SO...IN
GENERAL...A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MORE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS WITH LESSER DIFFERENCES ELSEWHERE. AGAIN
WOULD EXPECT THE DIURNAL T CURVE TO BE SHARP AFTER SUNSET FOR
THESE VALLEYS AS THEY QUICKLY DROP OFF. TUESDAY WILL BE AN EVEN
NICER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TAKING OFF TO THE LOW AND MID 70S BY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER RELATIVE TERRAIN BASED TEMPERATURE SPLIT...MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE
FOR FOG EITHER NIGHT.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TONIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DISTINCTION...ESPECIALLY
EAST. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY KEPT THEM ZEROED OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO WANT TO BUDGE. IN FACT...THE
FEATURE THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE HIGH EAST IS SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIP THROUGH KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ULTIMATELY FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. SO...UNTIL THESE MODELS
CAN LATCH ONTO THE FEATURE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EVOLUTION OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS...EXPECT CONTINUED DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONSISTS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THICKER CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED TO FL120 OR ABOVE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KNOTS AT FL020 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING 10 KNOTS WILL ENSUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITHOUT ANY EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF GUSTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND HELP PUSH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT INCREASING DEW POINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE ALSO
EXPECT SOME -DZ TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-
SE FLOW. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ESPECIALLY NOTED ON 300K
SFC...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL EVEN KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING TO 8C OR GREATER OVER CENTRAL MN. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WEST HALF AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATING FROM LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER EAST HALF...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDTIONAL SNOW ADDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE
ECSLIDES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE
AREA. IF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. COLDER AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND VERY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE WORST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AND BOTH THE GFS/EC AGREE ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ONLY MARGINAL LIFT INTO THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS PLACES ONLY CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITAION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
A MOIST S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW AND KCMX WILL FAVOR IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT
KIWD...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPETED TO FALL BLO MVFR TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. HOWEVER...THUNDER PROB IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED HEATING/MIXING AND VEERING WINDS TO SSW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1232 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND HELP PUSH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT INCREASING DEW POINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE ALSO
EXPECT SOME -DZ TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-
SE FLOW. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ESPECIALLY NOTED ON 300K
SFC...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL EVEN KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING TO 8C OR GREATER OVER CENTRAL MN. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WEST HALF AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATING FROM LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER EAST HALF...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE SW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
A MOIST S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW AND KCMX WILL FAVOR IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT
KIWD...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPETED TO FALL BLO MVFR TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. HOWEVER...THUNDER PROB IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED HEATING/MIXING AND VEERING WINDS TO SSW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016
WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT LATE WED/THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1103 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA IS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AND
HAS OVERTAKEN MILES CITY AND BAKER. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL LINGER
OVER MUCH OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE UPDATED
TO RAISE SKY COVER FURTHER WEST AT SUCH PLACES AS MILES CITY.
COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG IN OUR EAST WHERE SFC DEW PTS ARE MUCH
HIGHER. ALSO...IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARER W/ LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS ALREADY. HAVE
ADJUSTED FORECAST LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT LOCATIONS LIKE
LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON. THE CITY OF BILLINGS SHOULD FALL TO THE
MID 20S TONIGHT. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. BEST CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT WHILE WE HAVE A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES. MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AND GRAUPEL...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THE CRAZY AND
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MTNS SHOULD PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS OVER OUR REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY AND WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RIDGING TAKES OVER AGAIN. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GAP FLOW PATTERN FOR THE LIVINGSTON
AND SW FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. I RAISED WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS THU-SUN AS
THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW. FOR MON...HAVE CHANCE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL AND
THEN EASTERN ZONES AS THE ECMWF FINALLY BRINGS THE TROUGH
EASTWARD. THE GFS DOES THE SAME BUT IS A BIT SLOWER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE LIVINGSTON-NYE CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHER GAP FLOW
WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE THU AND SAT-SUN. RMS/BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY W TONIGHT INTO TUE. E OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY...EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT THE KMLS AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E INTO THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLVM. THE
FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH KBIL AROUND 06Z WED. THE
CRAZY...BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED
TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/056 031/054 034/068 041/067 041/066 037/060 037/060
00/U 22/W 01/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 12/W
LVM 022/050 027/050 034/061 040/062 039/059 037/055 034/054
02/T 33/W 12/W 12/W 22/W 12/W 23/W
HDN 027/058 028/057 029/068 035/069 036/068 032/064 031/062
00/B 22/W 01/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 12/W
MLS 031/054 029/057 030/068 036/070 039/069 034/062 032/061
00/B 11/B 01/B 01/B 11/B 11/U 11/B
4BQ 030/054 026/055 028/067 034/070 038/069 033/063 032/062
00/B 01/B 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/U 11/B
BHK 030/049 025/055 027/065 033/068 034/068 030/060 030/059
11/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 11/B
SHR 027/053 027/051 026/065 033/070 035/066 031/062 031/060
00/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
DID A MINOR UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. RECENT RUNS
OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF PCPN LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RECENT
RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
DRY WARM SECTOR IS FIRMLY PLANTED OVER NEB...BRINGING RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...AND PEAKING AT 110M OVER
WESTERN CO. STOUT 850MB WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE
50KT LOW-LEVEL JET HAD BROUGHT 8C+ DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO...AND 10C+ TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. 850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SD/ND/MT COMMON BORDER. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OF 20C+ EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US
NORTHWARD INTO NEB/SD/MN. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN
WESTERN NEB...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW IN NORTHEAST
CO/NEB PANHANDLE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLIP
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD
JUST A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS JUST SKIRT THE
AREA WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT DO THINK CHANCES ARE
PRETTY LOW OVERALL. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE MO VALLEY
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT. WITH SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS MILD ON TUESDAY THAN
RECENT DAYS...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
GFS CAME IN AS A FAST AND NORTHWARD OUTLIER FOR EJECTING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW INTO THE CENTRAL US ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLIER AND FARTHER NORTH
THAN ITS EARLIER RUNS OR THE ECMWF/NAM. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE ISSUE OF THE GFS AND ITS HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH BLENDS GIVING TOO MUCH WEIGHT
TO THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION. HAVE INCREASES POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS OR THE
RESULTING BLENDS...WITH MENTION STILL LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE EJECTING LOW COULD
CLIP THE CWA...AND HAVE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS.
DESPITE LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN (OR AT LEAST
CLOUDS)...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
THE MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO POP UP WEST OF SEWARD WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER...THE TREND FOR SPOTTY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO SHIFT EAST. HRRRX
SHOWING LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST OF KOFK AFTER A FEW HOURS AND
LINGER AT KLNK AND KOMA THROUGH 10-13Z. VFR CIGS FL050 SHOULD
AFFECT KOFK TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE ACROSS KANSAS
TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD...HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO HIGHER CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO
20KTS GUSTS 20 TO 30KTS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST TUESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
AT H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEBRASKA TONIGHT. RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DUE TO
RH BELOW 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
THIS EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. AS OF
21Z...LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSNY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SLOWLY
BRING SATURATION BELOW 850HPA THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. AT 00Z...HRRR AND RAP MODELS PLACE SFC LOW OVER KTIF
WITH EXPANDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST AND CONTINUED DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM AND RAP FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH CONVECTIVE INDICES...MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG...LIFTED
INDEX AS LOW AS -3C...AND UP TO 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR FROM KSNY TO
KAIA TO KVTN. CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT THREAT OF SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER BOYD CO BY 06Z ACCORDING TO NAM
AND HRR. 850HPA CAA IS STRONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING NEARLY 8C OVER
NORTHWEST NEB FROM 00-06Z. HOWEVER...850HPA TEMPS REMAIN AOA 0C
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AT
KAIA AND MERRIMAN WHILE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING IN
LOWEST 100HPA. RAP ALSO WEAKENS LIFT AS TEMPS COOL TO THE POINT
WHERE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH
CONFIDENCE RELATIVELY LOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE
PANHANDLE...OR AT LEAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION TO
OCCUR...LEFT MAIN PTYPE AS RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61.
HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEAR KAIA AND PINE RIDGE SO
LEFT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW...IN CASE STRONG LOW LIFT
CONTINUES AFTER 06Z ALLOWING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND DYNAMIC COOLING.
TUESDAY...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG SD
BORDER WITH SLOWLY DRYING AIR IN LOWEST 50HPA. LEFT SCHC RAIN
NORTH OF U.S. HWY 20 THROUGH 18Z. FARTHER SOUTH...SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER AND EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING. 850HPA TEMPS
ARE MODEST AT 0-5C WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ALIGNED WELL WITH
MONDAY 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE...RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND HAVE SOME TIMING AND
TEMPERATURE ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEANS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON
STEADY RISE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...5C TO 15C. ECMWF MORE
PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE THURSDAY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLES
COMING IN WITH 1 TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LOW 60S ON THURSDAY THROUGH UPPER 60S SUNDAY SEEM REASONABLE AS
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PACIFIC AIR. STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
SLOWED BY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BUT LOOKING
AT TIME HEIGHTS DRY LOWER LEVELS HIGH BASED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH STRONG CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POSSIBILITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS SWINGING
ACROSS THE REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GENERALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF KLBF...HOWEVER BRIEF IMPACT FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS WITH THE
SHOWERS. BY MORNING CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. WINDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MAR 7 2016
CRITICAL RH VALUES AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. RED FLAG WARNING ON TRACK FOR FIRE ZONES 210 AND
219. DECENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MAX RH VALUES AOA 80
PERCENT.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
319 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CENTERED AROUND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS COVERING THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH TIME. LATEST MSAS/MESOSCALE SURFACE
ASSIMILATION...PLACES THE ATTENDANT 994MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND MITCHELL AIRPORT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE CONTINUES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH TO OAKES. AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS...CURRENT THINKING IS
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING TREND BY 09Z-10Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IF IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT REALIZED.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE OR MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
18Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST/LIKELY
POPS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CLOSEST TO
THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW. THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS BEING DOMINATED BY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS. THE
HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS BEEN DOING WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND...BEGINNING AT 15Z WEST AND SHIFTING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DICKEY TO
ASHLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE NUDGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL FALL UNDER A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MILD AND DRY. THIS PERIOD
HAS A PRONOUNCED GULF OF ALASKA LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THIS RESEMBLES A WEAK REX
BLOCK FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVING MILD TEMPERATURES OF
NEARLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOCUS WINDS AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL 18Z-20Z TUESDAY...EXCEPT AT KJMS WHERE THEY
WILL LINGER UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG AND VLIFR VSBYS AT
KJMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 11Z TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25KT. IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND
00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
PRECIP REMAINS OVER WESTERN SD AND EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST LATER TONIGHT. FOG WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
ADDED AREA OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DRY SLOT OVER EASTERN SD AND NE AND WAS
MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED POPS AND
QPF DOWN FOR TONIGHT AND UP A LITTLE FOR TUE MORNING. FOG LOOP
INDICATED LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUD TREND IS FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE/FILL IN IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY. WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A TAD FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED OPEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST WY/NE PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN SASK AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL MAN TUE. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE OVER ONTARIO LATE
TUE.
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KNOTS. CHANGED TEMP AND DEWPOINTS CURVES FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CENTER OF THE SFC
LOW IS STILL DOWN OVER NEBRASKA...BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA
THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND 50S ARE NOT THAT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE MODELS
ALL BRING THE WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS BY 06Z...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO...SO
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING THE MAIN ONE AND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
THROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EAST
TOMORROW EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC LOW TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW OUR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 30S AND
40S AND IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GO THROUGH
UNTIL LATE COULD STILL REACH THE 50S. HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS QUIET FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN...RISING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S WEDNESDAY TO THE
40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NW MN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA.
GFS/ECMWF KEEP QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH SFC TEMPS. AT
THIS POINT...HIGHS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S APPEARS LIKELY...WHILE MORE 60S ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AS THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND WITH LOW CIGS AND AND IN
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES LOW VISIBILITIES. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE
OVER NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS ABOVE 30 HUNDRED FT. FOG LOOP INDICATED
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR
AREA IN THE SOUTH MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT. ALSO MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS FROM TEXAS NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST APART FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS THROUGH 12Z AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. EARLIER
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVE
DISSIPATED. THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE IS VERY LOW WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM INDICATE A SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...QUANTIFIED BY MUCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.
BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
WILL HAVE AVIATION ISSUES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. STRATUS HAS
ENVELOPED AREA EAST OF THE AREA FROM BETWEEN KSPS AND KF05 TO KRCE
AND KBKN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS IN THE WEST. STRATUS WILL PERSIST
AND LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCES OF AFFECTING MANY OF
THE TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CHANCES NORTHWEST /ESPECIALLY KGAG AND
KWWR/ ARE LOWER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ARDMORE TO
JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE, JET MAX, AND SUBTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST, THE DRYLINE HAS NOW NUDGED ITS
WAY INTO NW OK AND IS BULGING INTO EXTREME SW OK AND WESTERN N TX.
CU ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT WHERE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED CIN PRESENT
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY NEAR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BULGE AND NORTHWEST OK, AS HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER E CO. ALL SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY WANE AS THEY MOVE NE INTO STABLE
AIRMASS.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, A MID TO UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX BEFORE 12Z, AND THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO AID IN LIFT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
UP/NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR THROUGH TOMORROW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES (~8 C/KM) ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW OVER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS, IN ADDITION TO MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT. THE
PREVIOUS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS, AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES ACROSS SW OK/W N TX FROM AROUND
06-09Z WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. AFTER WHICH, A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF OUR FA AND INTO TSA`S SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THIS COMPLEX,
BUT IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF ARE PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL RIGHT NOW AND MATCH WELL WITH
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL ASCENT TONIGHT SO THE FORECAST WAS WEIGHED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THEIR TRENDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF THE I44
CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING WED MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER SIGNFICANT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE RED RIVER WITHIN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONG MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL,
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WED, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHCS IMPACTING ZONES SOUTH OF I40 AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 68 54 66 / 40 90 50 70
HOBART OK 58 70 49 65 / 60 80 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 75 54 68 / 80 90 60 40
GAGE OK 50 66 42 63 / 20 30 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 60 66 48 65 / 30 80 40 70
DURANT OK 61 73 59 67 / 100 80 80 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-
041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/26/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
CREATED A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S...WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN CALM MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
THEREFORE...THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINING OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
CHALLENGING AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE WINDS. FOR TODAY...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST. WARM SOUTH
WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL ALLOW CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN MS VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY BUT THEN BEGAN TO MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER TX THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN
VALLEYS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG ON THE EAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER RIDGE SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND TROUGHING MOVES
IN TO REPLACE IT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LEFT OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN THE
FORECAST. BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NO PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 52 75 56 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 48 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 42 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1155 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MAINLY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE METROPLEX OVERNIGHT WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALREADY
STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS...NORTHWEST OF KMAF /MIDLAND/
AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF KOZA /OZONA/. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MOVE NORTHEAST OR EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE I-35
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE METROPLEX AND WACO 13-15Z TUESDAY. THUS
HAVE PLACED A TEMPO 3SM TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR THE 13-17Z PERIOD.
AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT CEILINGS
TO START TO IMPROVE WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT THE AIRPORTS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN INITIAL BATCH OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE IS POSITIONED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IT HAS MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS SWEETWATER BUT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING NOW
APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH IS HELPING TO SHARPEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED. LATEST LOOK AT RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES INDICATES THAT A SHARP CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4KM NAM ALSO
SHOWS AN ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE ALTHOUGH IT COULD PUT DOWN ANOTHER BAND OF AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. IN ALL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL TONIGHT IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35W AND AREAS
WEST.
TUESDAY...IS OUR MAIN DAY IN QUESTION REGARDING THE FORECAST AS IT
COULD VERY WELL BE MOSTLY QUIET OR RATHER ACTIVE. IT IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO POPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL MAIN AREAS OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WEST OF I-35. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A RATHER UNPERTURBED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WEAKLY
CAPPED. THIS SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES BACK WEAKLY IN THE MID LEVELS
LIKELY INDICATING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE...THEN IT MAY BE A
QUIET DAY...ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM. IF THE SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT
EXIST AND WE HAVE ANY LIFT AT ALL...THEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ON THE AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY
ANY DATA FROM 12 OR 18Z SOUNDINGS TOMORROW CAN OFFER. FOR NOW...WE
WILL SIDE WITH LOWER OVERALL POPS AND MONITOR THE THREAT CLOSELY.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WARM ADVECTION STREAMER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.
THE NEXT LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE TIME WHEN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...EAST OF THE METROPLEX FOR
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
COULD SEE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
DISCREPANCIES GROW REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. WE CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 75 60 68 57 / 80 50 100 60 50
WACO, TX 66 77 59 70 56 / 60 40 100 60 50
PARIS, TX 62 72 61 68 58 / 70 90 100 90 50
DENTON, TX 64 74 59 68 56 / 80 50 100 60 50
MCKINNEY, TX 65 74 60 67 56 / 80 50 100 70 50
DALLAS, TX 68 75 60 69 58 / 70 50 100 70 50
TERRELL, TX 67 75 60 69 58 / 60 60 100 80 50
CORSICANA, TX 65 76 61 69 58 / 50 50 100 70 50
TEMPLE, TX 66 78 59 70 56 / 60 40 100 50 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 62 77 57 68 54 / 80 50 80 50 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
607 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
WITH TIME AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO IFR TO LIFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WELL ADVERTISED AND WELL ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED AND NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUES TO
WAFFLE A LITTLE BIT ON THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A GOOD
OLD FASHIONED SPRING SOAKING AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED.
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS INDEED CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW AND
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
GULF OF MEXICO IS WIDE OPEN AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS ALSO STREAMING IN FROM
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AS STRONG SOUTHWEST ALOFT IS NOW ESTABLISHED
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OR MORE CONTINUING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND IS HANDLED
WELL BY BOTH THE HRRR AND 4.0KM WRF SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWING THEIR LEAD
..SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED THIS MORNING WITH FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN AROUND MID DAY OVER THE
WEST AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE METRO AREA.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY REACH FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...SOME QUITE STRONG...WILL KICK OUT OF THE LOW BRINGING
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSES BUT RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW SOME RUN OFF TO
OCCUR BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE PLENTY OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER FAR SW TEXAS...WHILE A WEAK STALLED FRONT WILL SET UP OVER AR.
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL BRING HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP A SCENARIO OF PERIODS OF
RAIN TO AFFECT AR...OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE SEEN. THE
FORECAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO WESTERN AR
IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY...4 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
EASTERN AR.
ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER
EASTERN TX...WHILE THE STALL BOUNDARY WAS STILL OVER AR. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AR...BUT WE DO SEE A BIT LESS LIFT
INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES DO LOWER A BIT...AS WELL AS RAIN
AMOUNTS. INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT...WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS THE
LOW BACK. SOME CHANCES OF RAIN WILL STILL BE SEEN SATURDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
BACK TOGETHER AND MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF AR AND ENDING ANY
RAIN. ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM THAN THE
EURO...AND SOME LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...TO 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
60S.
ONE ISSUE THAT MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER
AR WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
GOLF COASTS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST LIMITS SOME OF THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY...AND WE END UP WITH A LITTLE LESS RAIN THAN FORECASTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 60 69 61 / 70 90 90 90
CAMDEN AR 73 64 74 63 / 90 90 90 90
HARRISON AR 67 58 67 57 / 90 90 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 62 70 61 / 90 90 90 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 62 71 62 / 80 90 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 75 63 76 64 / 70 70 70 90
MOUNT IDA AR 69 62 68 60 / 90 90 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 59 69 59 / 80 90 90 90
NEWPORT AR 70 60 70 61 / 50 80 80 90
PINE BLUFF AR 74 62 74 63 / 70 80 80 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 61 69 61 / 90 90 90 90
SEARCY AR 71 61 70 61 / 70 90 90 90
STUTTGART AR 72 62 72 62 / 60 80 80 90
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
823 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER...ONLY SLIGHT WARMING
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SONORA. CLOUD TOPS ACROSS AZ CONTINUE TO WARM
AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN AZ ARE BEING
DETECTED ON REGIONAL RADARS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE HRRR SUGGESTS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING AND THE
MENTION OF THUNDER WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS WELL.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP AREAS OF CIGS AT THE TAF SITES WITH BASES MOSTLY 10-
12K FEET. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND THUS WILL NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE AREA TAFS. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT CLEARING
WITH JUST FEW-SCT HIGHER BASED CU AND MID DECKS. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...GOING BACK TO THE WEST BY 18-19Z WITH A FEW
AFTN GUSTS TO 20K POSSIBLE. KPHX MAY SEE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING AND HAVE A HARDER TIME SWITCHING TO THE EAST BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON WEST WINDS SET IN .
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. KBLH LIKELY TO HAVE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS THAN KIPL...AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 25KT AT TIMES
AFTER 18Z TODAY. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK UP
ANY CONSEQUENTIAL BLOWING DUST/SAND. SOME LINGERING MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE SKIES GENLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL
STAY LOCALLY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
ALSO BE MUCH WARMER...ONLY SLIGHT WARMING ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA/NW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. WITHIN THAT THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO VORT
MAXES/LOBES. AS OF THIS WRITING...ONE OF THEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER AND WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE OTHER VORT MAX
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND WAS PRODUCING SOME
MODEST CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR AND OFF OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THOSE LOBES DUMBELLING AROUND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR YUMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE
OVERALL SYSTEM. WITH THE BORDERLAND VORT MAX/LOBE MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THIS MORNING...LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWERS AFFECTING
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING HRRR AND THE NCEP WRF/S ARE LESS GENEROUS AND PRETTY MUCH
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR HRRR PRIOR TO 12Z THIS
MORNING. AN EXCEPTION IS THE NCAR ENSEMBLE BUT IT HAS NOT HANDLED THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY WELL. PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE MODELS
END QPF THIS EVENING AS THINGS SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. IN LIGHT OF
ONGOING TRENDS...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
DESERTS THIS MORNING WITH POPS PRETTY MUCH LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY LIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR PHOENIX AREA. SREF
DEPICTS SOME VERY MODEST CAPE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM OTHER MODELS. ALREADY SOME LIGHTNING OBSERVED OVER
NORTHERN SONORA. THUS INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA TODAY AS WELL AS SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMING
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE MORE MUTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX WHERE THINGS WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVEL BE NEAR 5500 FEET THIS MORNING RISING QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP AREAS OF CIGS AT THE TAF SITES WITH BASES MOSTLY 10-
12K FEET. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY
THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND THUS WILL NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE AREA TAFS. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT CLEARING
WITH JUST FEW-SCT HIGHER BASED CU AND MID DECKS. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...GOING BACK TO THE WEST BY 18-19Z WITH A FEW
AFTN GUSTS TO 20K POSSIBLE. KPHX MAY SEE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING AND HAVE A HARDER TIME SWITCHING TO THE EAST BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON WEST WINDS SET IN .
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. KBLH LIKELY TO HAVE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS THAN KIPL...AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 25KT AT TIMES
AFTER 18Z TODAY. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK UP
ANY CONSEQUENTIAL BLOWING DUST/SAND. SOME LINGERING MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE SKIES GENLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL
STAY LOCALLY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TO
TODAY...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LI/NYC...TO ABOUT BLM ON THE NJ
COAST. THE FRONT THEN SNAKES BACK TO THE NW ACROSS NE NJ IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...HAVE DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE AND NE PA WHICH
IS TRACKING TO THE SE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SKIES AT LEAST GOING
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK AND WILL BE OFFSET BY DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGING.
TEMPS NW OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR JUST SURPASS THE
70 DEGREE MARK. MOST OF NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LONG ISLAND AND MOST
OF SRN CT SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE...WITH MOSTLY 50S...THOUGH HRRR INDICATES THE
NORTH SHORE OF WRN LONG ISLAND AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR
SRN CT MAY ALSO SEE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INVOF NYC... IN THE
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SRN CT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE...WITH 60S FOR LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AND
LOWER/MID 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH. USING WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AND ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEG...
HIGHLY URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEEING
HIGHS APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AND THEN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NEAR RECORD TEMPS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. TEMPS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 60S.
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
MOST SHOWERS DRY UP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS SLOWLY
DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SSE-SE FLOW UNDER 10 KT BCMG LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORNING PATCHY FOG...THEN VFR. SW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OCEAN WATERS E OF MORICHES INLET.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS COULD COME FRI INTO SAT ON THE OCEAN
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD ON WED...MAINLY NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THU SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE AVG. AWAY FROM THE COAST. WED AND THU WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH TEMPS 15-25 DEG ABOVE AVG INLAND.
HIGH TEMP RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR EXCEEDED AS FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 64
ISLIP64 2000 66
LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71
KENNEDY 67 1973 64
CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 75
NEWARK 74 2000 76
THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 62
ISLIP62 2006 63
LAGUARDIA 74 2006 70
KENNEDY 71 2006 65
CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 71
NEWARK 76 2006 72
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
931 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TO
TODAY...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF LI/NYC...TO ABOUT BLM ON THE NJ
COAST. THE FRONT THEN SNAKES BACK TO THE NW ACROSS NE NJ IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...HAVE DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE AND NE PA WHICH
IS TRACKING TO THE SE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SKIES AT LEAST GOING
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK AND WILL BE OFFSET BY DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGING.
TEMPS NW OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR JUST SURPASS THE
70 DEGREE MARK. MOST OF NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LONG ISLAND AND MOST
OF SRN CT SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE...WITH MOSTLY 50S...THOUGH HRRR INDICATES THE
NORTH SHORE OF WRN LONG ISLAND AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR
SRN CT MAY ALSO SEE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INVOF NYC... IN THE
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SRN CT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE...WITH 60S FOR LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AND
LOWER/MID 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH. USING WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AND ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEG...
HIGHLY URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEEING
HIGHS APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AND THEN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NEAR RECORD TEMPS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. TEMPS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 60S.
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
MOST SHOWERS DRY UP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR OR OVER THE AREA TODAY.
VFR THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
LATE TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SSE-SE FLOW UNDER 10 KT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW RETURNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORNING PATCHY FOG...THEN VFR. SW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OCEAN WATERS E OF MORICHES INLET.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS COULD COME FRI INTO SAT ON THE OCEAN
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD ON WED...MAINLY NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THU SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE AVG. AWAY FROM THE COAST. WED AND THU WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH TEMPS 15-25 DEG ABOVE AVG INLAND.
HIGH TEMP RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR EXCEEDED AS FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 64
ISLIP64 2000 66
LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71
KENNEDY 67 1973 64
CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 75
NEWARK 74 2000 76
THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 62
ISLIP62 2006 63
LAGUARDIA 74 2006 70
KENNEDY 71 2006 65
CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 71
NEWARK 76 2006 72
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS
CLIMATE...//
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
619 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIFT QUICKLY NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL THEN DRAG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACROSS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. WILL ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS
TO REFLECT LATEST SFC OBS AND LATEST TRENDS.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN
CT...LONG ISLAND AND NYC. AS A WEAK LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WINDS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL...BUT DO EXPECT THE
FRONT TO GET HUNG UP IN THE HILLS NW OF THE CITY. THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL...AND SO HIGH TEMPS ARE
CLOSE TO 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND
A COUPLE OF DEG WARMER FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. PER THIS GUIDANCE AND
LATEST HRRR...TEMPS NW OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR JUST
SURPASS THE 70 DEGREE MARK. EVEN WHERE THE FRONT DOES GET
THROUGH...MOST OF NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S. LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SRN CT SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE...WITH MOSTLY 50S...THOUGH HRRR INDICATES THE
NORTH SHORE OF WRN LONG ISLAND AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR
SRN CT MAY ALSO SEE LOWER 60S.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE H8 WARM FRONT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS
THROUGH BEFORE UPPER RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. NYC
METRO AND NE NJ COULD SEE SOME CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INVOF NYC... IN THE
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SRN CT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WED MORNING...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE...WITH 60S FOR LONG ISLAND/SRN CT AND
LOWER/MID 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH. USING WARMEST MOS GUIDANCE AND ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEG...
HIGHLY URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ HAVE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEEING
HIGHS APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AND THEN TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER NEAR RECORD TEMPS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. TEMPS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 60S.
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
MOST SHOWERS DRY UP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR OR OVER THE AREA TODAY.
VFR THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
LATE TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SSE-SE FLOW
UNDER 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
RETURNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORNING PATCHY FOG...THEN VFR. SW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT...SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OCEAN WATERS E OF MORICHES INLET.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS COULD COME FRI INTO SAT ON THE OCEAN
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD ON WED...MAINLY NE NJ.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING A
WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THU SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE AVG. AWAY FROM THE COAST. WED AND THU WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH TEMPS 15-25 DEG ABOVE AVG INLAND.
HIGH TEMP RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR EXCEEDED AS FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 60 2002 64
ISLIP64 2000 66
LAGUARDIA 75 2000 71
KENNEDY 67 1973 64
CENTRAL PARK 69 2000 75
NEWARK 74 2000 76
THURSDAY MARCH 10 RECORDS FORECAST HIGHS
BRIDGEPORT 70 2006 62
ISLIP62 2006 63
LAGUARDIA 74 2006 70
KENNEDY 71 2006 65
CENTRAL PARK 74 2006 71
NEWARK 76 2006 72
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
942 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CONTINUING STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
REQUIRED.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS, ACROSS SOUTH
FL, AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 4-5 KFT
THIS MORNING. ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY LOW REGARDING THIS
SOLUTION. BKN-OVC CIGS ARND 5 KFT MAY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEK...
REST OF THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A VERY THIN LAYER AROUND 850MB/5000FT AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 0.60" AND RATHER DRY
LAYERS ABOVE AND BELOW WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE. BOTTOMLINE, NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY IN THESE
CLOUDS BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T SEE INVERSION LIFTING PER CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY RAIN TODAY OUTSIDE MAY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
BOTTOMLINE THESE AIN`T RAIN CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY OUTSIDE AREAS OF SUN TODAY.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER FL, EAST COAST, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE 590-592DM JUST TO OUR EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH ARE
AROUND 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS
THE AREA.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOULD LEAD TO RECORD WARMTH. BUT THE WINDS AND SCU FIELDS
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT
REMAIN AROUND 70 OR INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MAY BE MID 70S NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LATER IN THE WEEK.
BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SEVERAL VISITORS IN THE AREA WITH SPRING
BREAK UPON US, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT REGARDING
THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. THE HIGH
RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTS
TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BOTH MODELS TRY TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND IS SLOWER, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE TREND OF MODELS TO OFTEN
TOO QUICKLY BRING DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS, FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION REFLECTING INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH.
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE GULF AND BAYS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BEING BORDERLINE WILL RE ASSESS LATER
TODAY. IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING,
THEN AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
PUT IN ITS PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY ALONG ATLANTIC
WATERS RESULTING IN HIGHER SEAS TOO AND IF SO IS THE CASE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY BE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 70 80 73 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 71 79 75 / 10 10 0 10
MIAMI 78 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 81 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
645 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF BKN STRATOCU CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE...IMPACTING TAFS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-4...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT.
THESE PERIODS OF BKN CIGS ABOVE VFR LIMITS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR KSRQ/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. E/SE WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 14-18KTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS SUBSIDE
TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. EYES
IMMEDIATELY GO TO THE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW DIGGING
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN MS VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
TROUGH IS STUBBORN TO MAKE MUCH ZONAL PROGRESS. THE DEEPNESS OF
THIS TROUGH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER AS THE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROMOTE AMPLIFYING/SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL ONLY HELP SLOW THE ZONAL
PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH AND ACT AS LONG TERM PROTECTION FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA/GA/NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE WORK WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL E/SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE NOW REALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR
HEADS...WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
RATHER BENIGN WITH STACKED RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE...AND ONLY
BECOMING STRONGER WITH TIME. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING BY THE END
OF TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESSENTIALLY PREVENTING
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. THEREFORE POPS ARE ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH POPS ARE ZERO...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS MAKING
THERE WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITHIN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...MOST SUN TODAY IS
LIKELY TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE SUNNY
BREAKS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
MORE PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE
LAYER SUPPORTING THESE CLOUDS IS RATHER SHALLOW. GOOD CHANCE WE
ARE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS LAYER BY MID AFTERNOON...AND
ESSENTIALLY ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM THE BOTTOM UP.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE BREAKS OF SUN DOWN SOUTH AS WE HEAD
LATER INTO THE DAY. DESPITE THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS...OVERALL
INSOLATION WILL BE HIGH...AND TEMPS WILL RESPOND. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING IT APPEARS THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW A DEFINED SEA- BREEZE TO DEVELOP. MAY SEE A
FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS SLACKEN IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OR BRIEFLY
FLIP ONSHORE...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY INLAND PENETRATION.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
SEA-BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-4...AND THEN THE GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S FAR NORTH AND
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST SPOTS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER...TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 80S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. LOCATIONS SUCH AS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE
ISLANDS/CAPES OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF COOLER BAY AND HARBOR WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
HOLD SWAY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI. A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS TX WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ROBUST
AT TIMES ON THE GULF.
SAT-SUN-MON...UP TO THIS POINT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
BUT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND. THEY ARE SIMILAR
WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING FLATTENING AND SLIDING EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER OVER THE CONUS...THE ECMWF
SLOWLY MOVES THE CUTOFF LOW EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND DAMPENS IT OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS TRACKS THE CUTOFF NORTHEAST AND FASTER
BUT HAS A SECOND LOW THAT FORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES
EAST. IN EITHER CASE THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH... WITH
THE ECMWF RUNNING ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS SLOW. BOTH MODELS END WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND GENERALLY IN PLACE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
SHOWERS (POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT) BUT WITH THE TIMING SLOWED...FAVORING
THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS POSITION OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING A STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STRONG HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
PATTERN WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL SOMETIME DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS
AROUND THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WINDS BECOME GUSTY LATE EACH MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT DAYTIME MIXING AND STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 76 61 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 79 62 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
555 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS, ACROSS SOUTH
FL, AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 4-5 KFT
THIS MORNING. ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY LOW REGARDING THIS
SOLUTION. BKN-OVC CIGS ARND 5 KFT MAY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEK...
REST OF THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A VERY THIN LAYER AROUND 850MB/5000FT AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 0.60" AND RATHER DRY
LAYERS ABOVE AND BELOW WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE. BOTTOMLINE, NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY IN THESE
CLOUDS BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T SEE INVERSION LIFTING PER CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY RAIN TODAY OUTSIDE MAY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
BOTTOMLINE THESE AIN`T RAIN CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY OUTSIDE AREAS OF SUN TODAY.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER FL, EAST COAST, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE 590-592DM JUST TO OUR EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH ARE
AROUND 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS
THE AREA.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOULD LEAD TO RECORD WARMTH. BUT THE WINDS AND SCU FIELDS
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT
REMAIN AROUND 70 OR INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MAY BE MID 70S NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LATER IN THE WEEK.
BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SEVERAL VISITORS IN THE AREA WITH SPRING
BREAK UPON US, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT REGARDING
THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. THE HIGH
RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTS
TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BOTH MODELS TRY TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND IS SLOWER, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE TREND OF MODELS TO OFTEN
TOO QUICKLY BRING DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS, FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION REFLECTING INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH.
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE GULF AND BAYS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BEING BORDERLINE WILL RE ASSESS LATER
TODAY. IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING,
THEN AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
PUT IN ITS PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY ALONG ATLANTIC
WATERS RESULTING IN HIGHER SEAS TOO AND IF SO IS THE CASE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY BE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 71 79 75 / 10 10 0 10
MIAMI 78 70 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 81 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The weather pattern today will be dominated by persistent warm
advection flows. The 850mb LLJ will be primarily focused west of IL
today, with our western areas having the better chances of seeing
increasing moisture content in the boundary layer. The latest HRRR
and RAP guidance are pointed toward mainly isolated showers and
storms affecting our counties west of I-55 today, in response to a
shortwave that will be triggering a wave of showers/storms focused
just west of our forecast area. That wave is projected to pass by to
our west-northwest this morning, with a general break in the precip
chances this afternoon before showers/storms return tonight.
Instability parameters in the latest RAP model show MUCAPE values
climbing to 200-400 J/kg in our far western counties from Rushville
to Galesburg during mid-morning, with a sharp decline to the east
Little to no MUCAPE is indicated along the Illinois river and
eastward during that time. The higher instability axis shifts west
of our counties this afternoon. Have updated the precip chances
today to peak during the morning as the shortwave affects western
IL. We kept our PoPs in the chance category, with isolated storms
mentioned.
Despite a blanket of clouds through the day, the mild south winds
gusting to 30 mph will help boost high temps into the upper 60s to
around 70 again today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Moisture-rich plume of air starting to set up from the western Gulf
of Mexico this morning, with precipitable water values progged to
reach around 1.25 inches by evening and range from 1.4-1.6 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday. Large upper low currently over the
northern Gulf of California helping to set up this moisture feed,
and the low is expected to be in north central Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Latest model runs have been focusing a more northern track
with this low, drifting it into northern Texas late week. With a
large high building off the southeast U.S., our frontal boundary
will be in no particular hurry to exit the region, with a slow
passage Thursday and Thursday evening. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will help bring surges of heavier showers Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. At the current time, the
heaviest rainfall axis remains centered roughly between the Illinois
River and the I-57 corridor with potential for 2-3 inches through
Thursday night. Will continue with the Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and
defer any potential flood headlines to the next shift, since the
heaviest rain is still aways out.
PoP-wise, main area of showers will be lifting northeast out of
Missouri this evening, with a secondary wave overnight further
south. Will have the categorical PoP`s from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward this evening, then spread them east overnight.
PoP`s will remain in the 85-95% range through Thursday morning over
most of the CWA, but will see some decrease from the northwest in
the afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF models are a bit quicker in
drying out the northwest CWA by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS`s
quicker handling of the upper low results in conditions never really
drying out until a brief break Friday morning. Am leaning against
the latter scenario, which seems too fast of a movement for a cutoff
low that size. High pressure over the Great Lakes will feed a drying
northeast flow into the area Thursday night, and did focus a period
of dry conditions over much of the CWA by late night. The ECMWF
would keep us dry into Friday evening as well, but have kept some
lower chance PoP`s in deference to the Canadian model, which spreads
some light rain northward during the afternoon. Periods of showers
are likely into the weekend as the remnants of the low lift
northeast.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the
period. The coolest weather on Friday will still only drop highs
into the 60 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
A narrow band of showers and isolated storms over eastern
Missouri and eastern Iowa will move north-northeast this morning.
The latest HRRR and RAP output indicate the bulk of the precip
activity will remain to the west of the TAF sites this morning.
The precip coverage appears tied to better forcing associated
with the low level jet west of Illinois. We still could see some
isolated showers develop near PIA this morning as the best forcing
for precip passes by just to the west of our forecast area. A
break in the rain chances is expected this afternoon, before the
850mb LLJ redevelops from SW to NE into west central IL this
evening. That will bring more widespread rainfall and scattered
storms to the terminal sites overnight. Until then, mostly VFR
conditions are expected into the afternoon hours. Currently, VFR
cigs continue with bases around 5000-7000 feet with RAP soundings
showing that little variation from that will occur through most of
the day. We expect a gradual downward trend towards MVFR cigs by
early evening when more widespread precip will be approaching the
TAF sites. Surface winds will be gusty out of the south tonight at
12 to 17 kts, with gusts continuing around 25 kts. South winds
will remain steady tonight in the 12-16kt range.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
930 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Impressive convective complex across the southern plains this
morning, with the NW periphery affecting Barber county and
surrounding areas. These storms have been efficient rain
producers, with radar accumulation data indicating 1/2 to locally
1 inch of rain has fallen across SE Barber county. Did another
update to expand shower mention further NW as suggested by HRRR,
and to increase cloud cover given thick convective cirrus canopy.
With all the clouds, we will likely struggle to reach forecasted
high temperatures.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Updated to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage substantially
across Barber county and surrounding areas, to account for line of
convection spreading in from Oklahoma. Uncertain how far NW this
shower and thunderstorm activity will spread, but current HRRR run
is a good first guess, including about the SE 1/3 of the CWA.
Elevated CAPE will allow for strongest convection to produce some
small hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Clouds across western Kansas will increase early today as
moisture and lift improves in the 700mb to 500mb level based on
the latest RAP and NAM. Based on the BUFR soundings along with the
RAP and HRRR cloud bases today will lower but stay in the VFR
category through early tonight. There may even be a slight chance
rain showers after 00z Wednesday, however given the low
probability will not include mention of this precipitation at this
time. Winds will be north at 10 to 15 knots early today but
between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday the winds will begin to
gradually veer to the east northeast. Wind speeds fall back to 10
knots or less late this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 61 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 37 60 37 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 61 38 62 37 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 62 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 65 45 65 42 / 70 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
828 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Updated to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage substantially
across Barber county and surrounding areas, to account for line of
convection spreading in from Oklahoma. Uncertain how far NW this
shower and thunderstorm activity will spread, but current HRRR run
is a good first guess, including about the SE 1/3 of the CWA.
Elevated CAPE will allow for strongest convection to produce some
small hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Clouds across western Kansas will increase early today as
moisture and lift improves in the 700mb to 500mb level based on
the latest RAP and NAM. Based on the BUFR soundings along with the
RAP and HRRR cloud bases today will lower but stay in the VFR
category through early tonight. There may even be a slight chance
rain showers after 00z Wednesday, however given the low
probability will not include mention of this precipitation at this
time. Winds will be north at 10 to 15 knots early today but
between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday the winds will begin to
gradually veer to the east northeast. Wind speeds fall back to 10
knots or less late this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 61 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 37 60 37 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 61 38 62 37 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 62 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 65 45 65 42 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Clouds across western Kansas will increase early today as
moisture and lift improves in the 700mb to 500mb level based on
the latest RAP and NAM. Based on the BUFR soundings along with the
RAP and HRRR cloud bases today will lower but stay in the VFR
category through early tonight. There may even be a slight chance
rain showers after 00z Wednesday, however given the low
probability will not include mention of this precipitation at this
time. Winds will be north at 10 to 15 knots early today but
between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday the winds will begin to
gradually veer to the east northeast. Wind speeds fall back to 10
knots or less late this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 61 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 37 60 37 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 61 38 62 37 / 10 20 20 20
HYS 62 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 65 45 65 42 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
642 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. FLOW MERGES AGAIN OVER ERN
NAMERICA BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A TROF OVER ERN CANADA.
IN THE WRN TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW FOR SO FAR S IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN
MEXICO. DESPITE ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
THUNDER HAS BEEN NOTED W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL
ADVERTISED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS LARGELY FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE SO FAR JUST AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO.
PCPN FCST TODAY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. PERUSAL OF ALL AVBL MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA HAVING
A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SHRA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAP ANALYSIS AND OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MO/ERN IA
LIFTING NNE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. SOME -SHRA HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF
THIS PCPN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BRING MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN FCST. FOR NOW...USED THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO BRING
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS INTO THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC/LOW CHC
CATEGORY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. AFTER BEING LED ASTRAY BY MODEL
INSISTENCE ON FOG/STRATUS/-DZ DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 2
NIGHTS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THESE WX ELEMENTS. PRESENCE OF HIGHER
CLOUD DECKS AND LACK OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO AID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
HAVE PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN THE LACK OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
WITH 40S DWPTS ADVECTING N THRU WI...STILL EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING AS HIGHER DWPTS ENCOUNTER SNOW COVER. SHOULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE W HALF...PERHAPS EXCEEDING
60F IN A FEW SPOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MI WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP
THE E COOLER WITH 40S THE RULE...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES TO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDTIONAL SNOW ADDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE
ECSLIDES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE
AREA. IF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. COLDER AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND VERY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE WORST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AND BOTH THE GFS/EC AGREE ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ONLY MARGINAL LIFT INTO THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS PLACES ONLY CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITAION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU UPPER MI TODAY AND WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AT
KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND TO IFR
EARLY AFTN. AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY EARLY
AFTN...AND AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY AFTN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY KSAW COULD FALL TO LIFR
FOR A TIME. SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A WIND SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W TO NW DIRECTION AT
KIWD/KCMX WILL BRING A RETURN OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. FLOW MERGES AGAIN OVER ERN
NAMERICA BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A TROF OVER ERN CANADA.
IN THE WRN TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW FOR SO FAR S IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN
MEXICO. DESPITE ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
THUNDER HAS BEEN NOTED W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL
ADVERTISED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS LARGELY FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE SO FAR JUST AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO.
PCPN FCST TODAY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. PERUSAL OF ALL AVBL MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA HAVING
A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SHRA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAP ANALYSIS AND OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MO/ERN IA
LIFTING NNE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. SOME -SHRA HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF
THIS PCPN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BRING MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN FCST. FOR NOW...USED THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO BRING
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS INTO THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC/LOW CHC
CATEGORY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. AFTER BEING LED ASTRAY BY MODEL
INSISTENCE ON FOG/STRATUS/-DZ DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 2
NIGHTS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THESE WX ELEMENTS. PRESENCE OF HIGHER
CLOUD DECKS AND LACK OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO AID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
HAVE PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN THE LACK OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
WITH 40S DWPTS ADVECTING N THRU WI...STILL EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING AS HIGHER DWPTS ENCOUNTER SNOW COVER. SHOULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE W HALF...PERHAPS EXCEEDING
60F IN A FEW SPOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MI WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP
THE E COOLER WITH 40S THE RULE...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES TO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDTIONAL SNOW ADDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE
ECSLIDES THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE
AREA. IF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. COLDER AIR IN PLACE MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND VERY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE WORST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AND BOTH THE GFS/EC AGREE ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ONLY MARGINAL LIFT INTO THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS PLACES ONLY CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITAION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
A MOIST S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW AND KCMX WILL FAVOR IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT
KIWD...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPETED TO FALL BLO MVFR TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. HOWEVER...THUNDER PROB IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED HEATING/MIXING AND VEERING WINDS TO SSW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MILD AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY RETURNING COOLER AIR AND SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...
WITH A CLEARING TREND OVER WESTERN NY AND PA AND THE LATEST HRRR
AND RUC HOURLY TEMPS SHOWING LOTS OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, I
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON, SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 65-70 RANGE. FROM BINGHAMTON NORTH AND EAST,
TEMPS MAINLY HOLD IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. LATE DAY
SUNSHINE MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT, BUT THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU
LIVE THIS IS LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDG STAYS PUT INTO THU KEEPING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE. RDG BLDS A
BIT LTR TODAY INTO WED SO MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD A BIT...ESP
OVER THE NRN ZONES AS THE OLD SFC BNDRY RETREATS TO THE NORTH. WV
PASSES THRU LTR WED INTO THU AND WILL BRING A FEW SHWRS TO THE NRN
ZONES AND DEPRESSING THE NRN BNDY BACK TO THE SOUTH. RDG POPS BACK
INTO PLACE AHD OF THE STRONGER WV AND COLD FNT FOR FRI.
FNT PASSES EARLY FRI IN AN ANAFNT CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHWRS TO LINGER FRI IN THE COOLER AIR BHD THE PASSAGE. CAA IS WEAK
HWVR SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE SHRT TERM
PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MILD AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOSTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
A TROF IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U. S. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND AND WPC GUIDANCE. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT MAYBE
ONEIDA COUNTY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS
OFF THE EAST COAST. SLOW INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY TO
MONDAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH DEEP TROF IN THE PLAINS SO LOTS OF
MOISTURE GETTING FUNNELED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. INITIAL
SFC LOW GETS HERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WED. A WEAK FRONT STRADDLING
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. THUS WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS...THEY SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN VFR AS DEPICTED BY NAM AND RAP/RUC MODELS...AS WELL
AS BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WE HAVE VERY LITTLE
FAITH IN THE WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS SUGGESTED BY GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS STRUGGLED THE PAST DAY OR TWO. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING S OR SW 3-6 KTS EXCEPT FOR
KSYR-KRME WILL BE OUT OF THE ESE.
.OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR...EXCEPT SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS
FOR KSYR-KRME LATE IN THE DAY.
WED NGT TO THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS NY
TERMINALS WED NIGHT THEN ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AS FRONT HANGS IN
VICINITY...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAIN PLACEMENT.
FRI TO SAT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH WITH
ALTERNATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN A REGION OF
LARGE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLOUDY, THE FOG
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS A 10 TO 20 MPH
NORTHWEST WIND MIXES THE FOG OUT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
MAINLY UPDATES TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CENTERED AROUND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS COVERING THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH TIME. LATEST MSAS/MESOSCALE SURFACE
ASSIMILATION...PLACES THE ATTENDANT 994MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND MITCHELL AIRPORT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE CONTINUES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH TO OAKES. AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS...CURRENT THINKING IS
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING TREND BY 09Z-10Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IF IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT REALIZED.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE OR MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
18Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST/LIKELY
POPS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CLOSEST TO
THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW. THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS BEING DOMINATED BY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS. THE
HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS BEEN DOING WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND...BEGINNING AT 15Z WEST AND SHIFTING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DICKEY TO
ASHLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE NUDGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL FALL UNDER A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MILD AND DRY. THIS PERIOD
HAS A PRONOUNCED GULF OF ALASKA LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THIS RESEMBLES A WEAK REX
BLOCK FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVING MILD TEMPERATURES OF
NEARLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOCUS WINDS AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. EXPECT
KISN/KDIK TO REACH VFR STATUS BY 16Z...KMOT AT 17Z...KBIS AT 19Z.
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KJMS UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT TODAY...DIMINISHING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR EXPECTED CIGS TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
KJMS MAY BEGIN TO SEE SCT/BKN CLOUDS LESS THAN 1000FT TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
930 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
BRING A STRING OF DRY...AND INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAKENING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASED RIDGING MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE YET ANOTHER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY FOR EARLY MARCH. USING THE LATEST TRENDS
AND HRRR HOURLY TEMPS...I NUDGED MOST HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HOW MODELS HAVE LAGGED ON THESE WARM WELL
MIXED DAYS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THIS WILL EASILY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS WELL UP IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LOW TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONAL SPILL SE OVER THE
BIG UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN US.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DEEP
TROF/UPPER LOW IN THE SRN STREAM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY TO DIG SEWD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO THEN SOUTHERN TEXAS BY
MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS /BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO CLOSE
TO RECORDS...WHICH ARE IN THE U70S TO L80S AT KMDT AND KIPT ON
THOSE RESPECTIVE DAYS/.
BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS
12C BY MIDWEEK PER 00Z ECENS....THIS WILL PUMP UP GEFS MEAN 500
MB HEIGHTS TO AROUND 5760M AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO THE
LOWER 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA...AND 65 TO 70 IN MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NRN PENN. MEAN 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MAX FOR
KMDT WED IS 72F WITH THE MAX ENSEMBLE HIGH TEMP OF 75F.
AFTERWARD...MODELS /SPECIFICALLY THE EC AND GEFS/ BEGIN TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHARP UPPER AXIS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z EC PLACES THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE CHICAGO AREA...WHILE
THE 00Z GEFS HAS THE SAME RIDGE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST...FROM THE MID ATL COAST TO THE WRN PENN AND THE LOWER
GLAKES.
BIG IMPLICATIONS RESULT FROM THIS IN THE FORM OF A MILDER AND
WETTER GEFS SCENARIO...AND A COOLER AND DRIER PERIOD VIA THE EC
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
EC PUSHES A FAIRLY STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY /STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES TO THE MISS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/ MAY SLIDE SE AND THROUGH / OR AT LEAST INTO/
PA DURING THE LATE THURSDAY - FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS /THAT SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NRN AND WRN PENN/.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
CIGS/VIS/WX: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WINDS: 15-25KT GUSTS FROM 230-260 BTWN 15-22Z. MARGINAL LLWS
POSSIBLE NW 1/2 AIRSPACE AFTER 09/06Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY
WED...CHANCE OF P.M. RAIN SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS-VIS NW AIRSPACE.
THU...RAIN SHOWERS LKLY WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS-VIS PSBL NW AIRSPACE.
FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND OCNL MVFR CIG-VIS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
*DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE OF 71F TIED AT WILLIAMSPORT
YESTERDAY MARCH 7, 2016. PREVIOUS RECORD MAX WAS 1987.
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 8-10, 2016 FOR SELECT
SITES:
HARRISBURG: 84 IN 2000, 78 IN 2000, 72 IN 2006
WILLIAMSPORT: 81 IN 2000, 79 IN 2000, 71 IN 1977
ALTOONA: 77 IN 2000, 71 IN 2000, 72 IN 1986
BRADFORD: 74 IN 2000, 70 IN 2000, 66 IN 1986
STATE COLLEGE: 78 IN 2000, 74 IN 2000, 72 IN 1986
EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A GOOD 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MARCH 2012 SAW READINGS
WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S BY THE THIRD WEEK OF THE MONTH.
HOWEVER...APRIL 2012 TURNED COLD...WHICH WAS NOT A BENEFIT TO
AGRICULTURE THAT SPRING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HRS...THEN WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. EXPECT CONDITIONS AS
LOW AS LIFR UNDER THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP...AS WELL AS ERRATIC
WINDS UNDER AND IN VICINITY OF TSRA.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WELL ADVERTISED AND WELL ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED AND NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUES TO
WAFFLE A LITTLE BIT ON THE EXACT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A GOOD
OLD FASHIONED SPRING SOAKING AND A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED.
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS INDEED CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW AND
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
GULF OF MEXICO IS WIDE OPEN AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS ALSO STREAMING IN FROM
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AS STRONG SOUTHWEST ALOFT IS NOW ESTABLISHED
WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OR MORE CONTINUING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND IS HANDLED
WELL BY BOTH THE HRRR AND 4.0KM WRF SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWING THEIR LEAD
.SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED THIS MORNING WITH FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN AROUND MID DAY OVER THE
WEST AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE METRO AREA.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONLY REACH FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...SOME QUITE STRONG...WILL KICK OUT OF THE LOW BRINGING
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSES BUT RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW SOME RUN OFF TO
OCCUR BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE PLENTY OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER FAR SW TEXAS...WHILE A WEAK STALLED FRONT WILL SET UP OVER AR.
A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL BRING HIGH LEVELS OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP A SCENARIO OF PERIODS OF
RAIN TO AFFECT AR...OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL BE SEEN. THE
FORECAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO WESTERN AR
IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY...4 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
EASTERN AR.
ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER
EASTERN TX...WHILE THE STALL BOUNDARY WAS STILL OVER AR. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AR...BUT WE DO SEE A BIT LESS LIFT
INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES DO LOWER A BIT...AS WELL AS RAIN
AMOUNTS. INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT...WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS THE
LOW BACK. SOME CHANCES OF RAIN WILL STILL BE SEEN SATURDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
BACK TOGETHER AND MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF AR AND ENDING ANY
RAIN. ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM THAN THE
EURO...AND SOME LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...TO 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
60S.
ONE ISSUE THAT MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER
AR WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION EVOLVES OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
GOLF COASTS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST LIMITS SOME OF THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY...AND WE END UP WITH A LITTLE LESS RAIN THAN FORECASTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 60 69 61 / 70 90 90 90
CAMDEN AR 73 64 74 63 / 90 90 90 90
HARRISON AR 67 58 67 57 / 90 90 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 62 70 61 / 90 90 90 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 62 71 62 / 80 90 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 75 63 76 64 / 70 70 70 90
MOUNT IDA AR 69 62 68 60 / 90 90 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 59 69 59 / 80 90 90 90
NEWPORT AR 70 60 70 61 / 50 80 80 90
PINE BLUFF AR 74 62 74 63 / 70 80 80 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 61 69 61 / 90 90 90 90
SEARCY AR 71 61 70 61 / 70 90 90 90
STUTTGART AR 72 62 72 62 / 60 80 80 90
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
213 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX TODAY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME COOLING AND BREEZINESS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
COMBINED WITH THE STEADY WIND...IT FEELS QUITE CHILLY EVEN IN THE
LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...IN SOME REGARDS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES NOT LOOK UNLIKE AN AVERAGE JULY DAY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.
LIFTED INDICES REMAIN NEAR ZERO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT (ROUGHLY 10TH PERCENTILE) AND THIS IS SUPPORTING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS GILA AND NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...HI-RES WRFS INCLUDING THE HRRR INSIST THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE ALTOGETHER AFTER SUNSET. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS ALSO WORKING AGAINST PRECIPITATION MAINTENANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A TROUGH MOVING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH IT THAN THE ECMWF. EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUN...THOUGH THE ECENS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF BUT EVEN TAKING THAT AT FACE VALUE THERE IS VERY LITTLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...COOLING. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. LIKE THE
PRECEDING SYSTEM...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
JTNP. OTHERWISE...NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS POINT TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WITH YESTERDAY`S WEATHER SYSTEM HAVING EXITED THE REGION EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW OCCASIONAL SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR ALL AREAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOR THE PHOENIX
METRO SITES LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WESTERLY COMPONENT WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND STAY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITHOUT
IMPACTING THE AREA. MEANWHILE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL
AND KBLH WILL BE QUITE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 24 KTS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL
STAY LOCALLY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
220 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CAPES ARE RUNNING 100-300 J/KG AND LAPSE
RATES ARE 7- 9 C/KM UP TO 350MB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN A SHORT TIME. IF THIS FALLS OVER I-70 OR ANOTHER
ROADWAY...SLUSHY/SNOWPACKED ROADS WOULD BE EXPECTED. AS THE
AIRMASS STABILIZES...SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAP
AND HRRR INDICATE THE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE DENVER
METRO AREA THIS EVENING. NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL
HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST IN CASE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURS IN THE DENVER AREA...IT WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A FEW LOCATION MAY PICK UP TO 2
INCHES...OTHERWISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL HAVE
10 POPS FOR THIS. MAINLY VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE SECOND OF TWO SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACCORDING TO MODELS. LAST OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MTNS THE PRODUCT OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK
OROGRAPHICS INDUCED BY NWLY POST-TROUGH FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF GUIDANCE INDICATING BARELY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE
06Z/THURSDAY. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS AND NOTHING ANYWHERE AFTER 06Z
WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO RACE ACROSS NEB/KAN. GOING WITH 30-50
PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY EVENING LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO
BY MORNING. ON THE PLAINS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
WITH 10-15 PCT POPS FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN EARLY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN WITH CLEARING
LATE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE FCST REGION. MODELS
SHOW A 582 DECAMETER HIGH BULGING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY AND UP ACRS SRN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A CLEAR NIGHT THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGS F ABV AVG THURSDAY AND 14-18 DEG F ABV AVG ON FRIDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ONSHORE IN
CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES QUICKLY ACRS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER COLORADO ON SATURDAY. MODELS FORM A WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AROUND 12Z/SATURDAY. LOW TRACKS E-SEWRD TAKING A
NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WHICH SWEEPS ACRS THE STATE
DURING THE DAY. MODELS GENERATE SOME LOW QPF/SNOW ACCUM IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY BUT NOTHING ON THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW RACES SEWRD ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DROP OFF IN PRECIP UP OUR WAY. BY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE GENERATING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABV AVG TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY ACCORDING THE MODELS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
ALSO QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO
STRAY AS THE ECMWF SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL ROCKY MTN REGION BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIP. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THIS SAME TROUGH CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST
REGION. MODEL SHOW A STRONG SLY GRADIENT FLOW SETTING UP ON THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABV AVG. MODELS ALSO SHOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MTNS BY LATE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
NEARING TROUGH. CERTAINLY TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHICH ONE OF THIS
SCENARIOS WILL PAN OUT. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NORMAL
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE DIRECTION BY 06Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS 3000 TO 6000 FEET. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS 12Z. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
CUMULUS CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGHER....6000 TO
8000 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1207 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.AVIATION...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AROUND
5 KFT CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS AND MAY CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO UPDATED THE
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CONTINUING STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
REQUIRED.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS, ACROSS SOUTH
FL, AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 4-5 KFT
THIS MORNING. ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY LOW REGARDING THIS
SOLUTION. BKN-OVC CIGS ARND 5 KFT MAY LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEK...
REST OF THIS MORNING...EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A VERY THIN LAYER AROUND 850MB/5000FT AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS AROUND 0.60" AND RATHER DRY
LAYERS ABOVE AND BELOW WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE. BOTTOMLINE, NO RAIN
EXPECTED WITH THESE CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
TODAY-FRIDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY IN THESE
CLOUDS BUT AT THIS TIME I DON`T SEE INVERSION LIFTING PER CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS AND/OR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY RAIN TODAY OUTSIDE MAY BE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH.
BOTTOMLINE THESE AIN`T RAIN CLOUDS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY OUTSIDE AREAS OF SUN TODAY.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER FL, EAST COAST, AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE 590-592DM JUST TO OUR EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH ARE
AROUND 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS
THE AREA.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WOULD LEAD TO RECORD WARMTH. BUT THE WINDS AND SCU FIELDS
WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT
REMAIN AROUND 70 OR INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MAY BE MID 70S NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LATER IN THE WEEK.
BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SEVERAL VISITORS IN THE AREA WITH SPRING
BREAK UPON US, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT REGARDING
THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. THE HIGH
RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTS
TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO LIFT OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BOTH MODELS TRY TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND IS SLOWER, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
ANY PRECIP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE TREND OF MODELS TO OFTEN
TOO QUICKLY BRING DOWN BLOCKING PATTERNS, FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION REFLECTING INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY MUCH.
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH CAUTION IN PLACE FOR THE GULF AND BAYS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BEING BORDERLINE WILL RE ASSESS LATER
TODAY. IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING,
THEN AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
PUT IN ITS PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER CALLS FOR WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY ALONG ATLANTIC
WATERS RESULTING IN HIGHER SEAS TOO AND IF SO IS THE CASE
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY TOMORROW FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY BE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 80 73 83 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 79 75 82 / 10 0 10 0
MIAMI 70 80 73 82 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 62 83 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
216 PM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
IN THE WAKE OF A WAVE THAT DEPARTED THIS MORNING...AND IN ADVANCE
OF A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH A DEVELOPING RIDGE TOMORROW. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...AND IT WILL ENTER
SE OREGON WED MORNING AND GET THROUGH THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN OREGON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA WED NIGHT...ALLOWING EVEN MORE MOISTURE TO ARRIVE...AND WE
WILL ENTER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO. THERE WILL EVEN
BE A CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY ON
THU BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH. EARLIER MODEL RUNS PUT THE TREASURE VALLEY...FOR EX...INTO
THE MID 60S ON THU. HOWEVER...MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD...TO NEAR 60. IN THIS CASE...DUE TO STRONG SE WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...WE FEEL THE WARMER TEMPS ARE WARRANTED...
AND HAVE ONLY TRIMMED BACK EARLIER FORECAST MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO...LEAVING THEM IN THE MID 60S. FINALLY...THE HRRR IS
INDICATING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WE HAVE RETAINED MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST
AREAS. THIS PRECIP WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING
BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING IN SE OREGON AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ON EASTERN OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME. FRIDAY
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AREA...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL RISING TO AROUND 7000
FEET. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW SITS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA. MONDAY
IS WHEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. GFS WANTS TO SPLIT
THE LOW IN TWO AND BUILDS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THIS LOW FURTHER EAST. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW
A SHIFT IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHIFT....FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHWEST...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES MAKING
THEM DROP DOWN TO WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY BEFORE
06Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4500 FT MSL. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE 5- 15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT
MSL...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-20 KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/JC
AVIATION.....JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1158 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Forecast looks pretty good today and main update is to bump up
highs and SSW winds a bit more. Unseasonably Mild highs again in
the upper 60s and lower 70s today with breezy south winds of 15 to
25 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Will continue chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms west of I-57 this afternoon
with likely chances sw CWA late this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The weather pattern today will be dominated by persistent warm
advection flows. The 850mb LLJ will be primarily focused west of IL
today, with our western areas having the better chances of seeing
increasing moisture content in the boundary layer. The latest HRRR
and RAP guidance are pointed toward mainly isolated showers and
storms affecting our counties west of I-55 today, in response to a
shortwave that will be triggering a wave of showers/storms focused
just west of our forecast area. That wave is projected to pass by to
our west-northwest this morning, with a general break in the precip
chances this afternoon before showers/storms return tonight.
Instability parameters in the latest RAP model show MUCAPE values
climbing to 200-400 J/kg in our far western counties from Rushville
to Galesburg during mid-morning, with a sharp decline to the east
Little to no MUCAPE is indicated along the Illinois river and
eastward during that time. The higher instability axis shifts west
of our counties this afternoon. Have updated the precip chances
today to peak during the morning as the shortwave affects western
IL. We kept our PoPs in the chance category, with isolated storms
mentioned.
Despite a blanket of clouds through the day, the mild south winds
gusting to 30 mph will help boost high temps into the upper 60s to
around 70 again today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Moisture-rich plume of air starting to set up from the western Gulf
of Mexico this morning, with precipitable water values progged to
reach around 1.25 inches by evening and range from 1.4-1.6 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday. Large upper low currently over the
northern Gulf of California helping to set up this moisture feed,
and the low is expected to be in north central Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Latest model runs have been focusing a more northern track
with this low, drifting it into northern Texas late week. With a
large high building off the southeast U.S., our frontal boundary
will be in no particular hurry to exit the region, with a slow
passage Thursday and Thursday evening. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will help bring surges of heavier showers Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. At the current time, the
heaviest rainfall axis remains centered roughly between the Illinois
River and the I-57 corridor with potential for 2-3 inches through
Thursday night. Will continue with the Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and
defer any potential flood headlines to the next shift, since the
heaviest rain is still aways out.
PoP-wise, main area of showers will be lifting northeast out of
Missouri this evening, with a secondary wave overnight further
south. Will have the categorical PoP`s from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward this evening, then spread them east overnight.
PoP`s will remain in the 85-95% range through Thursday morning over
most of the CWA, but will see some decrease from the northwest in
the afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF models are a bit quicker in
drying out the northwest CWA by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS`s
quicker handling of the upper low results in conditions never really
drying out until a brief break Friday morning. Am leaning against
the latter scenario, which seems too fast of a movement for a cutoff
low that size. High pressure over the Great Lakes will feed a drying
northeast flow into the area Thursday night, and did focus a period
of dry conditions over much of the CWA by late night. The ECMWF
would keep us dry into Friday evening as well, but have kept some
lower chance PoP`s in deference to the Canadian model, which spreads
some light rain northward during the afternoon. Periods of showers
are likely into the weekend as the remnants of the low lift
northeast.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the
period. The coolest weather on Friday will still only drop highs
into the 60 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
VFR conditions into mid afternoon over the central IL airports
with scattered cumulus clouds 3-4 k ft and broken mid/high clouds
above 10k ft. Then expect MVFR conditions to develop from west to
east during late afternoon and into this evening as showers and
isolated thunderstorms move in. IFR conditions will then set in
from west to east during overnight and linger into Wed morning
with showers and thunderstorms. Breezy SSW winds 15-20 kts with
gusts of 25-30 kts this afternoon to diminish to 10-15 kts after
sunset and to around 10 kts later tonight into Thu morning and
veer sw.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Forecast looks pretty good today and main update is to bump up
highs and SSW winds a bit more. Unseasonably Mild highs again in
the upper 60s and lower 70s today with breezy south winds of 15 to
25 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Will continue chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms west of I-57 this afternoon
with likely chances sw CWA late this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The weather pattern today will be dominated by persistent warm
advection flows. The 850mb LLJ will be primarily focused west of IL
today, with our western areas having the better chances of seeing
increasing moisture content in the boundary layer. The latest HRRR
and RAP guidance are pointed toward mainly isolated showers and
storms affecting our counties west of I-55 today, in response to a
shortwave that will be triggering a wave of showers/storms focused
just west of our forecast area. That wave is projected to pass by to
our west-northwest this morning, with a general break in the precip
chances this afternoon before showers/storms return tonight.
Instability parameters in the latest RAP model show MUCAPE values
climbing to 200-400 J/kg in our far western counties from Rushville
to Galesburg during mid-morning, with a sharp decline to the east
Little to no MUCAPE is indicated along the Illinois river and
eastward during that time. The higher instability axis shifts west
of our counties this afternoon. Have updated the precip chances
today to peak during the morning as the shortwave affects western
IL. We kept our PoPs in the chance category, with isolated storms
mentioned.
Despite a blanket of clouds through the day, the mild south winds
gusting to 30 mph will help boost high temps into the upper 60s to
around 70 again today.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Moisture-rich plume of air starting to set up from the western Gulf
of Mexico this morning, with precipitable water values progged to
reach around 1.25 inches by evening and range from 1.4-1.6 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday. Large upper low currently over the
northern Gulf of California helping to set up this moisture feed,
and the low is expected to be in north central Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Latest model runs have been focusing a more northern track
with this low, drifting it into northern Texas late week. With a
large high building off the southeast U.S., our frontal boundary
will be in no particular hurry to exit the region, with a slow
passage Thursday and Thursday evening. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will help bring surges of heavier showers Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon. At the current time, the
heaviest rainfall axis remains centered roughly between the Illinois
River and the I-57 corridor with potential for 2-3 inches through
Thursday night. Will continue with the Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) and
defer any potential flood headlines to the next shift, since the
heaviest rain is still aways out.
PoP-wise, main area of showers will be lifting northeast out of
Missouri this evening, with a secondary wave overnight further
south. Will have the categorical PoP`s from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward this evening, then spread them east overnight.
PoP`s will remain in the 85-95% range through Thursday morning over
most of the CWA, but will see some decrease from the northwest in
the afternoon. The Canadian and ECMWF models are a bit quicker in
drying out the northwest CWA by Thursday afternoon, while the GFS`s
quicker handling of the upper low results in conditions never really
drying out until a brief break Friday morning. Am leaning against
the latter scenario, which seems too fast of a movement for a cutoff
low that size. High pressure over the Great Lakes will feed a drying
northeast flow into the area Thursday night, and did focus a period
of dry conditions over much of the CWA by late night. The ECMWF
would keep us dry into Friday evening as well, but have kept some
lower chance PoP`s in deference to the Canadian model, which spreads
some light rain northward during the afternoon. Periods of showers
are likely into the weekend as the remnants of the low lift
northeast.
Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the
period. The coolest weather on Friday will still only drop highs
into the 60 degree range in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
A narrow band of showers and isolated storms over eastern
Missouri and eastern Iowa will move north-northeast this morning.
The latest HRRR and RAP output indicate the bulk of the precip
activity will remain to the west of the TAF sites this morning.
The precip coverage appears tied to better forcing associated
with the low level jet west of Illinois. We still could see some
isolated showers develop near PIA this morning as the best forcing
for precip passes by just to the west of our forecast area. A
break in the rain chances is expected this afternoon, before the
850mb LLJ redevelops from SW to NE into west central IL this
evening. That will bring more widespread rainfall and scattered
storms to the terminal sites overnight. Until then, mostly VFR
conditions are expected into the afternoon hours. Currently, VFR
cigs continue with bases around 5000-7000 feet with RAP soundings
showing that little variation from that will occur through most of
the day. We expect a gradual downward trend towards MVFR cigs by
early evening when more widespread precip will be approaching the
TAF sites. Surface winds will be gusty out of the south tonight at
12 to 17 kts, with gusts continuing around 25 kts. South winds
will remain steady tonight in the 12-16kt range.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THEN INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN THE PLAINS.
OBSERVATION AND RAP MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A NEW ROUND OF MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEEN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS
TO SIGOURNEY IOWA LINE.
RAP AND OTHER MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEEN DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A
FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE. SOUTH OF A FREEPORT TO OTTUMWA LINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
INTERNALLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BEING DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CUTOFF LOW AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOW CUTOFF
TO THE SOUTH AND NO APPRECIABLE WAVE TO KICK IT OUT...THE MODELS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PRODUCE PRECIP WITH THE SSW FLOW AS WAVES
TRANSVERSES THE FLOW BEFORE IT MOVES OUT. OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR
THOSE SYSTEMS TO CLIP THE EASTERN CWA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE 18Z NAM IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE QPF OUT OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SWATH OF QPF.
THE BULK OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO FALL FROM ST LOUIS TO THE SOUTH SIDE
OF CHICAGO. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS TREND KEEPS UP AND MOST OF THE QPF ACTUALLY MISSES THE CWA. MY
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE OVERDONE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE TREND THAT THE ECMWF AND GEM
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...THE GFS FINALLY BOUGHT INTO WITH H5 RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH NO WAVE TO KICK OUT THE
CLOSED LOW OVER TX...THIS RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH TEMPS THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THE NEXT WAVE
DOESNT APPROACH THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE CLOSED LOW STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK NORTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE
AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW STARTS TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA. MY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS LOW AS CLOSED LOWS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...BUT I DONT THINK IT WILL LAST THE WHOLE TIME. AS THE NEXT
WAVE HITS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...FORECAST SKILL SHOULD
IMPROVE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LULL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WILL START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/09 AS SHOWERS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY DECAY. AFT 00Z/09 VFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DECAY TO MVFR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THAT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF MISSOURI
INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP INDICATE A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IF THE RAP TRENDS ARE CORRECT IT APPEARS THAT NEW CONVECTION MAY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE VORT MAX...GENERATED BY THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STORM COMPLEX...ARRIVES IN MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
UPDATED FORECAST HIGHS ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 DEGREES CLOSER TO 70 AFTER
SEEING THE LARGE CLEARING UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN MO INTO SW IA ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND CONSIDERING THE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WAS TRIGGERING SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL IA...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
BREEZY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE STILL IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S. THE SOUTH WINDS WERE OUT AHEAD OF A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT...THE FLOW OVERHEAD
WAS SOUTHWEST BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EVOLVING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES REACHING TO AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA
CA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SD...WHILE
WEAKER IMPULSES WERE FOUND IN THE SW FLOW FROM TX TO IA...WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE PRODUCING A DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN OK INTO SW MO. A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE
WAS ENTERING CENTRAL AND SE IA. OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL IA...SO FAR THERE HAS ONLY BEEN HIGH BASED WEAK REFLECTIVITY
WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SE IA INTO W CENTRAL MO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN FOCUS
THROUGHOUT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS
THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
BREAK OUT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE WEAK
IMPULSES ADVANCING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH CONVECTION SO
FAR YET TO TAKE OFF AND POOR HANDLE DEMONSTRATED OVERNIGHT BY BOTH
HIGH RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS...HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER POPS FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING LOOKING AT THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A BREAK BETWEEN PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS
SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY IF NOT WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO
25 MPH. THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SEEN YESTERDAY...LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 60S. IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
OCCUR...THE FORECAST WOULD NEED TO BE UPDATED FOR HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SENDING A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE FAR SOUTH AND HAVE POPS RAMPING UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY.
TONIGHT...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WHERE THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE KEPT ROUGHLY IN A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH MODEL PW VALUES AS HIGH
AS 1.3 EARLIER ADVERTISED INTO N CENTRAL IL LIKELY TOO HIGH LOOKING
AT THE TOO MOIST INITIALIZATION IN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS FROM TX
INTO MO AT 00Z. MODEL MUCAPE VALUES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS OUR NW...WHILE
LOWS ARE HELD IN THE MID 50S IN THE SE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODELS AND ASSESSING
THEIR MASS FORCING...SUGGEST THAT INITIAL SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL RIPPLE TO THE NORTHEAST WED MORNING AND TAKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH IT FOR A TEMPORARY RAIN LULL MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN NE-TO-SW ORIENTED LLVL FRONT/BAROCLINICITY WILL
TRY TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PUSH THIS PERIOD TOO...BUT SIGNALS ON THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF EDGING
EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS AND MORE LLVL CYCLOGENESIS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAIN TO STALL IT AGAIN ALIGNED UNDER SOUTHWESTERLIES
ARCHING INTO THE GRT LKS. UPPER LOW PINCHES OFF ACRS SOUTHERN TX
INTO MEX WED NIGHT...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
SHUTTLING ANOTHER VORT TOWARD THE AREA WHILE 40-50 KT SSW LLJ SURGES
MORE THTA-E JUICED AIR UP TOWARD THE REGION.
BUT THE LATEST 00Z PROGS ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED THIS
PROCESS A BIT BACK TO THE EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS WHILE
ANOTHER WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FUELED BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AND AFFECT THE AREA FROM
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS TARGET AREAS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE NEW
EURO PRODUCES JUST A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR FROM LATE
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THU...WHILE THE 00Z GFS GENERATES
GENERALLY 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE SAME AREAS/TIME FRAME. THE AMERICAN
MODELS PROJECT PWAT FEEDS OF 1 TO 1.3 INCHES UP ACRS THE AREA BY WED
NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE EXTENT OF DEEP FORCING/LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
TRIMMING BACK THE PWATS MORE TO AROUND 1 INCH...STILL PRODUCES FROM
0.50 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH ALONG THE MS RVR...WITH 0.90 TO 1.3 INCH
AMOUNTS BY MID THU MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MEMPHIS MO...TO MOLINE IL AND TO STERLING IL. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THESE COMPROMISE AMOUNTS. WITH THE UPPER L/W TROF LOOKING TO PUSH A
BIT FURTHER EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...DO LIKE THE IDEA OF
MOST OF THE PRECIP OCCURRING/SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA BY THU
AFTERNOON. DO SEE THE MAIN EMBEDDED THUNDER THREAT WED AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE DVN CWA BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION OCCURS. IF THE WESTERN IL INTO
THE EASTERN CWA I80 CORRIDOR GETS OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WED
NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME NUISANCE RUN-OFF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
TYPE FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER...BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY SEE
ANYTHING WARRANTING A HYDRO-HEADLINE OF SOME TYPE.
AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY LAYING OUT FROM NE-TO-SW
ACRS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...SEE A LARGE TEMP SPREAD FROM THE
LOW TO MID 50S IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FCST AREA...TO THE MID
60S IN THE FARE SOUTHEAST. MORE EVEN..POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 50S
ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO BUILD DOWN AND SCOUR THINGS OUT
FOR THU NIGHT...IF WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH MANY AREAS DIPPING BACK
INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS BY FRI MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER A DRY FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 50S IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE...THE TRICK TO THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROF
BASE REMNANT LOW COMING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GEM
AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT EVEN MOST OF FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH
SLOWED/PARTIALLY BLOCKED ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW REMNANTS...WHILE
THE 00Z GFS BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT.
THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTION PROBABLY NOT BEING HANDLED WELL YET BY
THESE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS...BUT FEEL THE GEM/ECMWF COMBO
MORE ON TRACK WITH A SLOWED/BLOCKED TREND. BUT THESE MODELS PRODUCE
SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE PULLING THE OPENING WAVE
REMNANTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/RAIN.
NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS
PERIOD TO BE A LULL WINDOW IN BETWEEN SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS OR
PROCESSES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM PLAYS OUT. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/09 AS SHOWERS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY DECAY. AFT 00Z/09 VFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DECAY TO MVFR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THAT A WEAK THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF MISSOURI
INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Impressive convective complex across the southern plains this
morning, with the NW periphery affecting Barber county and
surrounding areas. These storms have been efficient rain
producers, with radar accumulation data indicating 1/2 to locally
1 inch of rain has fallen across SE Barber county. Did another
update to expand shower mention further NW as suggested by HRRR,
and to increase cloud cover given thick convective cirrus canopy.
With all the clouds, we will likely struggle to reach forecasted
high temperatures.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Updated to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage substantially
across Barber county and surrounding areas, to account for line of
convection spreading in from Oklahoma. Uncertain how far NW this
shower and thunderstorm activity will spread, but current HRRR run
is a good first guess, including about the SE 1/3 of the CWA.
Elevated CAPE will allow for strongest convection to produce some
small hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Early today an upper level disturbance, associated with the left
exit region of a 250mb jet, will lift northeast from Oklahoma into
Central Kansas. Given moisture and low level forcing present early
today near a surface boundary which will extend from south central
Kansas to far western Oklahoma there will be a chance for
scattered thunderstorms south and east of Dodge City as this upper
level disturbance crosses south central Kansas between 12Z and 18z
Tuesday.
An area of mid level moisture along with some i295 isentropic
lift and 850mb warm air advection will be present across western
Kansas late this afternoon and tonight. This will not only result
in mostly cloudy conditions but also provide another opportunity
for convection for south central and portions of western Kansas as
the nose of a southern branch upper jet approaches. Models this
morning differing on exactly where the better moisture and lift
will be present late today and early tonight, but given the GFS
and NAM solutions will continue to favor the better chances for
precipitation south and east of Dodge City.
Given the cloud cover expected today and early tonight the
previous forecast still looks on track with highs today climbing
only in the 60s. Low tonight will vary form the 40 to 45 degree
range in south central Kansas to the mid 30s in west central
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
The surface boundary located across south central Kansas and
western Oklahoma tonight will move very slowly south and east mid
week. Moisture and lift will continue along and just north of this
boundary as an upper low moves very slowly east across northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Models differing on how quickly this
moisture and lift will exit south central Kansas mid week, however
all are in decent agreement with shifting the precipitation south
and east of south central Kansas during the day by Wednesday
night. Clouds will also be decreasing from northwest to southeast
and given the afternoon sun expected across western Kansas will
trend towards the 00z 850mb temperatures as a guide for highs.
An upper level trough will cross the west central high plains
late week as the upper low, located in south Texas mid week,
begins to lift north northeast. Depending on the track of this
Texas low late week along with where the upper trough/deformation
zone will be located Friday will determine if precipitation does
return to portions of south central Kansas on Friday. At this time
given low confidence on that any model will handle the track of
this upper low late week well will stay close to the
CrExtendedFcst_Init for precipitation chances and temperatures
Friday and over the weekend period.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
VFR will continue through 18z Wednesday. Mid/high cloud canopy
from southern plains convective complex will gradually thin out
late this afternoon. -SHRA and isolated convection will remain in
eastern KS through 00z, and kept all TAFs dry. Variable amounts of
high clouds through Wednesday morning. Gusty north winds of 10-20
kts early this afternoon will diminish to a light north wind this
evening, followed by a NE wind near 10 kts around 12z Wed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 39 62 39 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 61 36 62 34 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 58 37 60 37 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 61 38 62 37 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 62 39 61 37 / 10 10 10 10
P28 65 45 65 42 / 70 30 20 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH ERN ND/NW MN. WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM ASSOC SFC
LOW OVER MN HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT HAS ALSO
LIFTED NORTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI. ADDED MOISTURE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER ND/MN MOVES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT. ALSO
COULD BE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SSW FLOW INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
20Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER FAR WRN U.P.
BUT CONTINUED MID-LVL DRYING AND LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER WEST INTO THE EVENING. LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER LINGERING SNOWPACK ACROSS AREA WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG SO WILL ISSUE A SPS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA.
COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S NW WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS WL STAY CLOSER TO THE MID
40S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE HALF OF FORECAST AREA WED
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SHRA SHORTLY AFT 12Z
OVER THE NW FCST...BUT OTHERWISE BUILDING RIDGE FM NORTH AND ASSOC
INCREASED DRYING AND ANTICYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME BREAKS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST LATE IN DAY UNDER LOW-LVL DIFFLUENT NE FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
...WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...
THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE E COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE THE N TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW
ACROSS MEXICO. THE PROGRESSIVE N WAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE E
09-21Z THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE SFC. MIXED
PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN IF ANYTHING DOES FALL. 850MB TEMPS ARE
HOVERING NEAR 0C AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS LOWER MI...A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THE 500MB TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE CUT OFF LOW TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO TX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SFC HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL SINK ACROSS LOWER MI BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST OF NE COAST SATURDAY.
LOW TRACKS ACROSS N ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR N...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W COAST FRIDAY WILL HELP EJECT THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER TX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LONG PROCESS THROUGH WITH
THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE S
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE OVERLY EXCITED GFS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE BACKED BY THE ECMWF AND IDEA
THAT THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER MI. WHILE A SFC
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE PRECIP RETURNING TO UPPER MI AS
EARLY AS 21Z SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THIS SOLUTION FOR WHAT IS NOW DAY 5. CHANCE POPS COULD SHOW UP AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY OVER THE SE. THE S LOW OVER S LAKE MI BY 06Z MONDAY
LOOKS TO EXIT E...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES SWING IT ACROSS LOWER MI
MONDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN THIS DAY 6-7 FCST...AND WILL
GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS
FCST MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR N...ACROSS N ONTARIO/S HUDSON BAY MONDAY-
TUESDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI.
END/KF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU UPPER MI TODAY AND WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AT
KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND TO IFR
EARLY AFTN. AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY EARLY
AFTN...AND AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY AFTN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY KSAW COULD FALL TO LIFR
FOR A TIME. SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A WIND SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W TO NW DIRECTION AT
KIWD/KCMX WILL BRING A RETURN OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
212 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN
NAMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. FLOW MERGES AGAIN OVER ERN
NAMERICA BTWN A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A TROF OVER ERN CANADA.
IN THE WRN TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW FOR SO FAR S IS DROPPING SE INTO NRN
MEXICO. DESPITE ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
THUNDER HAS BEEN NOTED W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL
ADVERTISED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS LARGELY FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE SO FAR JUST AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO.
PCPN FCST TODAY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. PERUSAL OF ALL AVBL MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA HAVING
A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SHRA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAP ANALYSIS AND OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MO/ERN IA
LIFTING NNE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. SOME -SHRA HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF
THIS PCPN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BRING MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN FCST. FOR NOW...USED THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO BRING
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS INTO THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC/LOW CHC
CATEGORY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. AFTER BEING LED ASTRAY BY MODEL
INSISTENCE ON FOG/STRATUS/-DZ DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 2
NIGHTS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THESE WX ELEMENTS. PRESENCE OF HIGHER
CLOUD DECKS AND LACK OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT TO AID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
HAVE PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN THE LACK OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
WITH 40S DWPTS ADVECTING N THRU WI...STILL EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING AS HIGHER DWPTS ENCOUNTER SNOW COVER. SHOULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE W HALF...PERHAPS EXCEEDING
60F IN A FEW SPOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MI WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP
THE E COOLER WITH 40S THE RULE...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE.
AS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES TO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...
SUPPORTING UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL SURGE MID
LEVEL DRYING INTO THE FCST AREA...SUGGESTING MINIMAL RISK OF
ADDITIONAL PCPN. INCLUDED NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS THAT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION (LOW CHC POPS) WILL BE OVER THE NW FCST
AREA WHERE PASSING COLD FRONT AND RESULTING WIND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE N
TO NW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME -RA OR PERHAPS -DZ OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
...WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...
THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO THE E COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE THE N TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW
ACROSS MEXICO. THE PROGRESSIVE N WAVE WILL ENTER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...WHICH MAY HELP SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE E
09-21Z THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE SFC. MIXED
PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN IF ANYTHING DOES FALL. 850MB TEMPS ARE
HOVERING NEAR 0C AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
ACROSS LOWER MI...A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THE 500MB TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE CUT OFF LOW TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO TX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SFC HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL SINK ACROSS LOWER MI BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST OF NE COAST SATURDAY.
LOW TRACKS ACROSS N ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR N...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE W COAST FRIDAY WILL HELP EJECT THE CUT
OFF LOW OVER TX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LONG PROCESS THROUGH WITH
THE LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE S
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE OVERLY EXCITED GFS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE BACKED BY THE ECMWF AND IDEA
THAT THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER MI. WHILE A SFC
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE PRECIP RETURNING TO UPPER MI AS
EARLY AS 21Z SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THIS SOLUTION FOR WHAT IS NOW DAY 5. CHANCE POPS COULD SHOW UP AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY OVER THE SE. THE S LOW OVER S LAKE MI BY 06Z MONDAY
LOOKS TO EXIT E...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES SWING IT ACROSS LOWER MI
MONDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN THIS DAY 6-7 FCST...AND WILL
GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS
FCST MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PERIOD...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC
LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR N...ACROSS N ONTARIO/S HUDSON BAY MONDAY-
TUESDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI.
END/KF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU UPPER MI TODAY AND WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AT
KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND TO IFR
EARLY AFTN. AT KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY EARLY
AFTN...AND AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR BY AFTN. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY KSAW COULD FALL TO LIFR
FOR A TIME. SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A WIND SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W TO NW DIRECTION AT
KIWD/KCMX WILL BRING A RETURN OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN ON ITS WAY
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
241 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG WAVE TO THE EAST
OVER EAST TEXAS AS SEEN IN WV AND RADAR RETURNS. WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES DUE TO STUBBORN STRATUS TODAY AND WAA AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOMORROW.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... SLOW TO ERODE STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED MAX TEMPS
TODAY. SREF MORE OPTIMISTIC IN BREAKING UP THE STRATUS BY 00Z WHILE
THE NAM AND RAP CLEAR IT OUT TONIGHT. WITH 850HPA FLOW TURNING
WESTERLY IN THE PANHANDLE... THINKING CLEARING WILL OCCUR SOONER
THERE AND SLOWLY WORK EAST. DEPENDING HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS ON
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB... MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO COOL. FARTHER
SOUTH... DENSE CIRRUS FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPS FROM FRONTIER TO WHEELER COUNTIES IN CASE
LOWS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. ELSEWHERE... WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING... TRENDED LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO... BUT THEY ARE STILL
ABOVE GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY... THE SFC/850HPA TROUGH MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND MAIN 500HPA WAVE ARRIVING LATER. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AT 850HPA WILL AID IN WAA... INCREASING TEMPS FROM ABOUT 5C AT
12Z TO NEAR 10C AT 00Z. TRENDED MAX TEMPS TOWARD MAV AND ECM
GUIDANCE... WHICH GENERALLY INCREASED PREVIOUS FCST 1-2 DEGREES. NAM
AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 750HPA AREA WIDE.
SOUNDINGS ALSO PICK UP A QUASI INVERTED V SIGNAL AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FGEN FORCING INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. APPRECIABLE
LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO EXISTS WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. CONTINUED SCHC MENTION OF THUNDER WEST OF HWY 83 AFTER 20Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR STRONG LIFT AND MARGINAL CAPE. HOWEVER... WITH DEEP DRY
LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS... STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
HIGH BASED. ALSO... 0-6KM SHEAR IS VERY HIGH... WHICH MAY RESULT IN
ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP FALLING APART QUICKLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...PHASING
WITH UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME INSTABILITY AND
CAPE WITH 7K FT CEILINGS AND LIFT FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEAK LLJ INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
PUSHES EAST AND THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 11C TO 12C. 850MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW INITIATES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW
RHS AND WINDS MAY BE CAUSE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TROUGH
BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AS UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES
UNDER THE RIDGE. PACIFIC AIR AND FAIRLY STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY FROM KAIA TO
KTIF TO KBBW AND POINTS NORTH... WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AROUND SUNSET AND
TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS OR STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN
FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
TWEAKED POPS DOWN AND TEMPS UP BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL
TRENDS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...AND THOUGH IT WILL FILL IN...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME TO
RAISE TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR IS NOT
VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUSPECT WE MAY
END UP A FEW INCHES SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE SANGRES.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...BUT WILL NUDGE AMOUNTS DOWN A
BIT. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1111 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
NEW MEXICO...YET SOME PRECIPITATION WILL STILL DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES IN. THROUGH 09/0400UTC...THE
FOCUS FOR SHRASN/TSRA WILL BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY
FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF THE
STATE. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35KT MAY ACCOMPANY SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT OVER PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET
MSL WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS WHERE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO
WILL DRAW A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
A SPRING-LIKE MIX OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE BIG WINNER SHOULD BE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON AN EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NOW LOOKS LIKE A
LESS GUSTY BUT STILL SUBSIDENT NE WIND WILL FLOW INTO THE VALLEY.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT THAT COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY TO FORECAST. CURRENT GRIDS TRY TO REFLECT THIS SHADOW.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE SANGRES WITH THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE. LOW END ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE GILA AREA. THE NAM IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT...BUT IT IS QUITE BULLISH ON QPF THERE TODAY. IF
NEEDED...THE DAY SHIFT MAY ISSUE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT DOWN THERE.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SIGNIFICANT BUT VERY LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO NM FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND AND DRY AIR SOUTHEAST OF THERE FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS ON SATURDAY.
AFTER A COLDER DAY TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND
UPWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF DIP IN READINGS WITH
SATURDAYS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FOLLOWED WITH MORE WARMING SUNDAY AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT MONDAY.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE DAY TODAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING AND
DRYING. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL ZONES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT SOME COOLING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH
POSSIBLY A RETURN TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO FAVOR THE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS. VENTILATION TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALL
ZONE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
WILL BE CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MOIST NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LINGERING WETTING RAIN
THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING AND DRYING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS ALL ZONES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. VENTILATION WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH POOR RATES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND POOR
TO FAIR VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY.
BY EARLY SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND TIMING.
AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCES OF SOME WETTING RAIN LOOK TO FAVOR
WESTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS ALSO AGREE ON BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AGAIN WITH THE WESTERN ZONES FAVORED FOR
WETTING RAIN WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EAST.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ512>515.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
102 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MILD AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY RETURNING COOLER AIR AND SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMP THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE HAS
MADE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA, ROUGHLY
FROM PENN YAN SOUTH THROUGH ELMIRA AND INTO SCRANTON. NEAR THESE
AREAS HIGHS NEAR 70 WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LIKELY HANG ON
TOUGH FOR MANY AREAS. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 60S
WHERE THE CLOUDS HOLD ON TOUGH (SYRACUSE, ROME) TO WELL INTO THE
60S WITH INCREASING SUN NEAR BINGHAMTON. ALL AND ALL A NICE MARCH
DAY! PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...
1025 AM UPDATE...
WITH A CLEARING TREND OVER WESTERN NY AND PA AND THE LATEST HRRR
AND RUC HOURLY TEMPS SHOWING LOTS OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, I
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON, SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 65-70 RANGE. FROM BINGHAMTON NORTH AND EAST,
TEMPS MAINLY HOLD IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. LATE DAY
SUNSHINE MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT, BUT THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU
LIVE THIS IS LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDG STAYS PUT INTO THU KEEPING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE. RDG BLDS A
BIT LTR TODAY INTO WED SO MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD A BIT...ESP
OVER THE NRN ZONES AS THE OLD SFC BNDRY RETREATS TO THE NORTH. WV
PASSES THRU LTR WED INTO THU AND WILL BRING A FEW SHWRS TO THE NRN
ZONES AND DEPRESSING THE NRN BNDY BACK TO THE SOUTH. RDG POPS BACK
INTO PLACE AHD OF THE STRONGER WV AND COLD FNT FOR FRI.
FNT PASSES EARLY FRI IN AN ANAFNT CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHWRS TO LINGER FRI IN THE COOLER AIR BHD THE PASSAGE. CAA IS WEAK
HWVR SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE SHRT TERM
PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MILD AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOSTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
A TROF IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U. S. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND AND WPC GUIDANCE. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT MAYBE
ONEIDA COUNTY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS
OFF THE EAST COAST. SLOW INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY TO
MONDAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH DEEP TROF IN THE PLAINS SO LOTS OF
MOISTURE GETTING FUNNELED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. INITIAL
SFC LOW GETS HERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BAND OF BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AROUND 5-8 KFT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SHOWERS
AT SYR AND RME... OTHERWISE VFR.
WED NGT TO THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS NY
TERMINALS WED NIGHT THEN ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AS FRONT HANGS IN
VICINITY...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAIN PLACEMENT.
FRI TO SAT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH WITH
ALTERNATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MILD AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY RETURNING COOLER AIR AND SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...
WITH A CLEARING TREND OVER WESTERN NY AND PA AND THE LATEST HRRR
AND RUC HOURLY TEMPS SHOWING LOTS OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, I
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON, SOUTH AND
WEST. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 65-70 RANGE. FROM BINGHAMTON NORTH AND EAST,
TEMPS MAINLY HOLD IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. LATE DAY
SUNSHINE MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT, BUT THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU
LIVE THIS IS LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDG STAYS PUT INTO THU KEEPING THE MILD AIR IN PLACE. RDG BLDS A
BIT LTR TODAY INTO WED SO MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARD A BIT...ESP
OVER THE NRN ZONES AS THE OLD SFC BNDRY RETREATS TO THE NORTH. WV
PASSES THRU LTR WED INTO THU AND WILL BRING A FEW SHWRS TO THE NRN
ZONES AND DEPRESSING THE NRN BNDY BACK TO THE SOUTH. RDG POPS BACK
INTO PLACE AHD OF THE STRONGER WV AND COLD FNT FOR FRI.
FNT PASSES EARLY FRI IN AN ANAFNT CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHWRS TO LINGER FRI IN THE COOLER AIR BHD THE PASSAGE. CAA IS WEAK
HWVR SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE SHRT TERM
PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
MILD AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOSTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
A TROF IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U. S. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND AND WPC GUIDANCE. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EXCEPT MAYBE
ONEIDA COUNTY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS
OFF THE EAST COAST. SLOW INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY TO
MONDAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH DEEP TROF IN THE PLAINS SO LOTS OF
MOISTURE GETTING FUNNELED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. INITIAL
SFC LOW GETS HERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BAND OF BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AROUND 5-8 KFT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...A SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SHOWERS
AT SYR AND RME... OTHERWISE VFR.
WED NGT TO THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS NY
TERMINALS WED NIGHT THEN ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AS FRONT HANGS IN
VICINITY...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAIN PLACEMENT.
FRI TO SAT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH WITH
ALTERNATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1234 PM EST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS
MOVING OVERHEAD. WITH A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL OF 20 DEGREES
BETWEEN THE LAND AND WATER THIS AFTER A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR 10M WINDS SHOW THE SEABREEZE MOVING
INLAND 15 TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON AND AROUND 5 MILES
INLAND NORTH OF WILMINGTON.
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AND WITH VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWS A PERSISTENT WARM SOUTHERLY TO PREVAIL. A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 70S
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S. THE EXCEPTION TO THE FORECAST MAXIMUMS WILL BE FOUND AT THE
BEACHES...WHERE COOL SHELF WATERS COMBINED WITH AN ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE WILL CAP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT TIMES...BUT
SUNSHINE WILL OTHERWISE BE PLENTIFUL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TO FOG AS A POTENTIAL ISSUE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AS DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW
RIDES UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRI SHOULD BE
THE LAST DRY DAY ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBILITY OF LOW
STRATUS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ON FRI. EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH CLOSE TO 80ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRY TO DROP DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT WHILE GFS KEEPS FRONT WELL
NORTH OVER VA. THIS MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE SLIPS
FARTHER EAST. WILL LOSE THE CAP OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
SATURDAY AND EXPECT BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LEAD TO INCREASED
CHC OF SHWRS. GFS SHOWS BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SAT EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AROUND BY SAT EVE. SUNDAY SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART
IN SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE BUT MAIN H5 TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
NOT TOO FAR BEHIND AND THEREFORE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GREATER CHC FOR SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF AND COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL PRODUCE BETTER ONSHORE
FLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCP
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SUCH WARM TEMPS EXPECT A DECENT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
PUSHING COOLER OCEAN AIR INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE RIDGING
ALOFT LEADS TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO
DISSIPATE ANY FOG ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM...CURRENTLY WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE COAST. HERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 1.5 TO 2 FOOT RANGE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 2 FEET.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT. WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT...WHICH COULD BRING SEAS UP ANOTHER
FOOT OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A S-SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRI LESS THAN 15
KTS. THE HIGH WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE AS LOW TRACKS NORTH
FROM THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BACK WINDS
TO A MORE S-SE ON SHORE FLOW SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING UP
AROUND 15 KTS. THEREFORE EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS FROM 3 FT
FRI UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT AFTN. SEAS MAY JUST ECLIPSE SCA
THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN AS WINDS INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS THEY VEER FROM S-SE TO S-SW. SHOULD ALSO SEE BACKING AND
SPIKE IN WINDS NEAR SHORE EACH AFTN DUE TO SEA BREEZE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
109 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED A MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 20Z.
ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE JRV BASED ON LATEST RADAR LOOP. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES MANY AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK
HOWEVER...ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST ATTIM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR ABERDEEN. THIS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. BAND OF SHOWERS OVER EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES APPEARS
TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY ATTIM WHILE A NEW AREA IS DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHERN DICKEY COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN THE WEST.
WINDS CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
MVFR-IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP SKY COVER WEST AND SLOWED THE DETERIORATION OF CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WE`LL SEE IF THIS IS ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN A REGION OF
LARGE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLOUDY, THE FOG
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS A 10 TO 20 MPH
NORTHWEST WIND MIXES THE FOG OUT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
MAINLY UPDATES TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CENTERED AROUND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS COVERING THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH TIME. LATEST MSAS/MESOSCALE SURFACE
ASSIMILATION...PLACES THE ATTENDANT 994MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND MITCHELL AIRPORT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE CONTINUES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH TO OAKES. AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS...CURRENT THINKING IS
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING TREND BY 09Z-10Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IF IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT REALIZED.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE OR MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
18Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST/LIKELY
POPS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CLOSEST TO
THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW. THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS BEING DOMINATED BY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS. THE
HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS BEEN DOING WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND...BEGINNING AT 15Z WEST AND SHIFTING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DICKEY TO
ASHLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE NUDGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL FALL UNDER A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MILD AND DRY. THIS PERIOD
HAS A PRONOUNCED GULF OF ALASKA LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THIS RESEMBLES A WEAK REX
BLOCK FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVING MILD TEMPERATURES OF
NEARLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOCUS WINDS AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. KDIK
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 20 UTC WITH KISN...KMOT AND KBIS
FROM 21-23 UTC. KJMS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR CLOUDS AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE MVFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KJMS...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1020 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR ABERDEEN. THIS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. BAND OF SHOWERS OVER EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES APPEARS
TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY ATTIM WHILE A NEW AREA IS DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHERN DICKEY COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN THE WEST.
WINDS CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
MVFR-IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP SKY COVER WEST AND SLOWED THE DETERIORATION OF CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WE`LL SEE IF THIS IS ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN A REGION OF
LARGE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLOUDY, THE FOG
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS A 10 TO 20 MPH
NORTHWEST WIND MIXES THE FOG OUT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
MAINLY UPDATES TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS ARE CENTERED AROUND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS COVERING THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH TIME. LATEST MSAS/MESOSCALE SURFACE
ASSIMILATION...PLACES THE ATTENDANT 994MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND MITCHELL AIRPORT IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS PUSHING TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE CONTINUES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH TO OAKES. AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS...CURRENT THINKING IS
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THE LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY
FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING TREND BY 09Z-10Z. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. HAVE COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IF IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT REALIZED.
FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE OR MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
18Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST/LIKELY
POPS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CLOSEST TO
THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW. THE REST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS BEING DOMINATED BY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS. THE
HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS BEEN DOING WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT
TO SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND...BEGINNING AT 15Z WEST AND SHIFTING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PRESSURE RISES
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DICKEY TO
ASHLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE NUDGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL FALL UNDER A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MILD AND DRY. THIS PERIOD
HAS A PRONOUNCED GULF OF ALASKA LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THIS RESEMBLES A WEAK REX
BLOCK FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVING MILD TEMPERATURES OF
NEARLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL NO DOUBT CONTINUE TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO FOCUS WINDS AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT HIGHLIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ACROSS AERODROMES THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AROUND MIDDAY KISN AND KDIK...MID
AFTERNOON KBIS AND KMOT...AND LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AT
KJMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ADVANCING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM HELPING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS...AND HAS IT SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO ABOUT
MID AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED POPS TO TIME THIS AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL...WITH AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY. THINGS SHOULD THEN DRY OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SOME CLEARING HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ALREADY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FILLING IN OF DIURNAL CUMULUS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS. SO...WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 60S AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHEAST...UNTIL THE CLOUDS
START FILLING IN. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 60S
AT LEAST...AND MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT AS WELL.
WOOD
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MADISON...AND POSSIBLY CLIP WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE...LATE THIS
MORNING INTO ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CATEGORY
CEILINGS BY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHEAST AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FOG DOWN TO 1 MILE
OR SO BY LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CATEGORY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WOOD
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST VSBY IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFFECTING
LAKESHORE AREAS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF. EXPECT MORE
BREAKS OR THIN OVC FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MIXING OVER THE SHORE AREAS.
THIS MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTIER WINDS REACHING LAKESHORE AND
THEN SPREADING OUT AND AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. VESSEL ON WI_IL BORDER REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
19 KTS AND A NUMBER OF IL C-MAN STATIONS REPORTING GUSTY WIND OF
20 TO 25 KTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS...SO HAVE ALREADY
POSTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST. AS SUNSHINE WANES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE MIXINESS WILL DIMINISH.
WEBCAMS SHOWING HAZINESS OVER THE LAKE. HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO BLANKET SOUTHERN LAKE MI THROUGH TODAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC FRONT...THE
THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
PCPN BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT FROM NE IOWA TO WESTERN IL AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SW. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS STILL FOCUSING BEST FORCING...WITH PCPN
TRAILING OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE. WARM ADVECTION HAS HELD TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT FOR A WARM START. SOME DELAY IN WARMING WITH MORNING PCPN
BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH MID 60S WITH A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
THROUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEXT
SHORT WAVE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BISECT CWA FROM ME TO SW BY 12Z WED.
WHILE MODELS SHOW LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WEAKENING AS
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKED TO THE NW OF THE CWA LIFTS OFF TO THE NE
STILL ENOUGH FORCING AND OMEGA FOR LIKELY POPS IN THE SE ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SLOWING COLD FRONT...LOWS HOLD IN THE 50S SE
WITH MID-UPPER 40S NW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONTINUED MILD AND MOIST REGIME WITH 250 MILLIBAR JET BECOMING
ORIENTED TO PLACE SRN WI WITHIN RRQ AND FAVORED REGION OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SURFACE/850 CONVERGENT ZONE WILL ALSO AID IN PROVIDING
FORCING WITH ONE SURFACE/850 WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SECOND
WAVE MOVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF QPF PROGS SHOWS HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
SE CLOSEST TO WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CO-LOCATED WITH
THE FORCING FROM SURFACE/850 LOWS/BOUNDARY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH COOLER NE FLOW REGIME.
SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THIS PERIOD.
FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH
RAIN RETURNING AFTER ABOUT 06Z. THE SUPERBLEND POPS ACKNOWLEDGE THE
QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE SRN PLAINS/MID MISS VLY. SURFACE/850 LOW
AND THE ASSOC LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE MOIST REGIME.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SOME CONSENSUS IN PLACE THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
BRING DRY WX SFC RIDGING AND COOL NE OR E WIND FLOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. PCPN ENDS
TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FORCING WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BACK IN
AFTER 00Z WED. SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP FOCUS OF PCPN OVER SRN
WI ALONG WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 06Z WED THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST
MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND THE WAVES GENERATED BY THESE
WINDS...WILL BE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THE FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AIR OVER THE COOL WATERS
OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES. NOT
CONFIDENT IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE DENSE FOG WILL BE SO NO HEADLINE
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR