Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/07/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 730 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY WEATHER TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED.
A WARM UP WILL START MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DISTINCT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER SRN NEVADA WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
LIMITED (MIXING RATIOS NOT EXCEEDING 6 G/KG) AND THE MOST ROBUST
DYNAMICAL ASCENT AND FOCUSED FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING HAS BEEN
RELEGATED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
AROUND 100 J/KG MLCAPE/MUCAPE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY...RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BUILDING SOUTH OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. HRRR OUTPUT HAS HANDLED
THE SITUATION WELL SO FAR TODAY...AND CANNOT DISAGREE WITH ITS
SOLUTION OF ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES PROPAGATING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN MARICOPA AND SRN GILA COUNTY THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
AS SUCH...HAVE TRIMMED OR ELIMINATED POPS FOR MUCH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SRN UTAH SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING...THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE REGION HAS ABRUPTLY SLACKENED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS. COMBINE THIS WITH THE NATURAL TENDENCY FOR NOCTURNAL
DECOUPLING...AND WIND GUSTS HAVE PREDOMINANTLY ABATED SINCE SUNSET.
REGIONAL CAMERAS...SFC OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR RETURNS ALSO
INDICATE BLOWING SAND AND DUST HAS THINNED AND BECOME PRIMARILY
LOFTED IN NATURE PRECLUDING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO TRAVEL. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED BOTH ADVISORY PRODUCTS A COUPLE HOURS EARLY.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME TARGETED ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY GRIDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS...THOUGH THE
GENERALIZATION OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER THE NEXT 48 HOURS STILL HOLDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/142 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016/
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING A LULL IN THE WEATHER. ON MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSE LOW SOUTH
OF NOGALES BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW
SLIDES IN...THEN THOSE SHOWER CHANCES SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A TIME WINDOW TUESDAY WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF ARIZONA SPILLS INTO THE PHOENIX
AREA...PRIMARILY BASED ON VERY MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS
ACTUAL FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK/ABSENT. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO
5000 FEET BUT WITH LITTLE QPF EXPECTED ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY
ISSUES.

MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE AXIS NOSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING
QUIET AND WARMING WEATHER. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS
SENDS A BIT OF A BOWLING BALL UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO ARIZONA BUT THE
GFS TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE SHOWS A MUCH WEATHER SYSTEM WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE TREND. LIKEWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
GEFS AND THE EC ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS NEAR-CLIMO POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY. WEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING THAT A FULL SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING. ITS QUITE POSSIBLE
A VARIABLE OR SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY
GOING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT LATE IN THE MORNING.

CIGS SHOULD FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A BKN DECK COULD INITIALLY FORM NEAR 6K FT BEFORE
RISING CLOSER TO 8K FT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
GUSTY WINDS...LOWER VFR CIGS...AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALL
AFFECT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TERMINALS MONDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE A STRONG AS SUNDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT W/SW
GUSTS NEAR 30KT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS NEAR 4K FT IS NOT AS
CERTAIN...THOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A 1-3 HOUR TIME PERIOD
SOMETIME IN THE 18Z-24Z TIME FRAME WHERE LESS THAN IDEAL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WHILE CATEGORIES SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR
RANGE...THERE IS SOME VERY LIMITED CHANCE OF BRIEFLY TOUCHING MVFR
CATEGORY DURING MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE
COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE 70S...AND THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP WITH MANY OF THE LOWER DESERTS FALLING BELOW 15
PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY
RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/INIGUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 256 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST WEST FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
THEN BRING RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES TO THE REGION. THE FIRST
WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE SECOND LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA DUES TO
THE WARM FRONT AS WELL. RADAR SHOWERS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN JUST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST ASSOC WITH THE CORE OF THE
WARM FRONT. SO CENTRAL COAST SHOULD BE SEEING A MARKED INCREASE IN
RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

ALL MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE NRN
CA COAST AND TRAILING TO THE SW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH IT. IT WILL REACH
SLO COUNTY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EXIT THE COUNTY A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...IT WILL ENTER SBA COUNTY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
EXIT THE COUNTY AROUND DAWN...IT WILL ENTER VTA COUNTY JUST BEFORE
DAWN AND EXIT THE COUNTY IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT WILL ENTER L.A.
COUNTY AT DAWN AND DEPART BY MID MORNING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND ODDS ON IT WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AND DRY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE AROUND 1.3
INCHES WHICH WILL HELP RAINFALL TOTALS. STILL EXPECT 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS L.A. AND VTA COUNTIES...WITH TOTALS
OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS ON AND BELOW S
FACING SLOPES. ACROSS SBA AND SLO COUNTIES...EXPECT 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH UP TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SLO COUNTY AND IN THE MTNS OF SRN SBA COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...NEAR 7000 FEET. THERE COULD
LOCALLY BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

A SECOND COLDER AND MORE DYNAMIC...BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER COLD FRONT
WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS CA TONIGHT. THE FRONTS PARENT TROF WILL
TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND SET UP A NICE DIFFLUENT
PATTERN OVER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY MORNING AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
SYSTEM TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN
SOME. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL PASS INTO SLO COUNTY
AT ABOUT 3 AM MONDAY MORNING AND EXIT L.A. COUNTY JUST AFTER NOON
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER...SHOWERY AND MORE DYNAMIC THAN
TONIGHT`S STORM RAINFALL RATES WILL BE A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE.
MDLS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THE NAM NOT SEEING AS MUCH RAIN AS THE GFS OR EC SOLUTIONS.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE COUNTIES AND ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE BETWEEN
AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM MONDAY COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES
THAT EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS IN AND BELOW RECENT BURN AREAS.

SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...EXCEPT ON THE
NORTH SLOPES WHERE STRONG MOIST NLY FLOW WILL CREATE UPSLOPE SNOW
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH AND BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER... POSSIBLY DOWN TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
MONDAY AND MON NIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE
GRAPEVINE PORTION OF INTERSTATE 5. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN
4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 6000 FEET ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME FAIRLY STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND POSSIBLY WARNING
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW ON TUESDAY. IT WILL USHER IN A
CLEARING AND WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 60S
OR THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

ALL MDLS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WED AND THU.
578 DM HGTS WILL ALL MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS OR ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALL MDLS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND UPPED THE POPS TO
THE CHANCE RANGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A MEDIUM KIND OF SYSTEM
BUT THESE THINGS CAN CHANGE AS THE MDLS GET A CLOSER AND CLOSER
LOOK AT IT. MAX TEMPS WILL NOSE DIVE BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES,

THE GFS SEES A STORM ON SATURDAY BUT THE EC AND CANADIAN DO NOT.
FOR NOW KEPT THE AREA DRY BUT ONE SHOULD NEVER REALLY HAVE THAT
MUCH FAITH IN A DAY 7 FORECAST.



&&

.AVIATION...

05/0000Z

WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.MARINE...

05/200 PM

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND EXCLUDING THE SANTA BARBARA, SANTA MONICA AND SAN PEDRO
BASINS THROUGH TO NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME WEST SUNDAY
AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS WILL EXIST
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
THEN LIKELY BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE GALES
WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.



&&

.BEACHES...

05/900 AM

A LARGE LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERATING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ALONG WEST FACING BEACHES.

BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AN EVEN LARGER LONG-PERIOD WEST
SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL BEACHES ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN HIGHER. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SURF HEIGHTS TO
EXCEED WARNING LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND WEST FACING
BEACHES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY LARGE
SURF...HIGH TIDES IN THE 6 TO 6.5 FOOT RANG COMBINED WITH GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS AND RAINFALL COULD BRING A THREAT OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING TO THESE SAME LOCATIONS. THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
COULD ALSO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      34-35-39>41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      34-35-37-38-51-52. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
      MORNING FOR ZONE 34. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 53-54-59. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR
      ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM PST
      MONDAY FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
218 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the area through this
evening with heavy rain, strong winds, and localized flooding.
Additional rain, along with heavy snow in the mountains, is on tap
for Sunday, Monday, and late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Main event is underway with increasing wind and precipitation
across the area. One large area of showers has moved out of the
valley into the foothills and northern Sierra, but another area of
showers presently enhancing to the southwest of the Bay Area will
move into the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys
late this afternoon.

Satellite imagery shows the cold front is now inside of 130W, and
with its current movement, it will move across interior NorCal by
mid to late evening accompanied by very heavy rain and perhaps a
little thunder. Strong ascent and wide swath of deep TPW (in
excess of 1.25 inches) ahead of the front result in extreme water
vapor transport anomalies this evening (> 7 SD on NAEFS mean
IVT!), so heavy rain nearly certain. Will continue flash flood
watches for the burn scars and monitor for possible issuance of
flood advisories this evening as heavier rain develops.

Winds have continued to increase this afternoon. The Fresno to
Medford gradient is now around 15 mbs, and the HRRR forecasts it
to increase to around 19-20 mbs by 02Z as a 992 mb surface low
moves across Siskiyou County. High-res models continue to point
toward the potential for a high impact wind event early this
evening across the Sacramento Valley and extending eastward into
the foothills with 925 mb winds forecast to reach nearly 70 kts
ahead of the cold front. Power outages and tree damage will be
likely.

Snow will develop across the northern Sierra passes late tonight
and continue into Monday. Still looking like good potential for
several feet of snow along the crest through Monday with a foot
or two possible as low as 5000 feet. Main snow impacts will hold
off until midnight as profilers indicate the snow level is still
above 7500 feet. Snow levels will rapidly lower behind the cold
frontal passage late tonight.

Heavier precipitation tapers by 12Z Sunday, then picks up again
later Sunday into Monday as the next wave moves into the area.

Break in the weather looks more likely for Tuesday.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Upper ridging over the area Wednesday shifts east allowing some
overrunning precip. GFS keeps this precip mainly north of the
forecast area while the EC spreads it over most of the CWA.
Forecast is a blend of these Wednesday.

Models in better agreement Thursday into Friday and advertise
another atmospheric river dropping slowly south through Interior
NorCal. QPF values look to be significant during this period. By
Saturday, forecast confidence lowers as EC returns upper ridging
and drier weather, while the GFS keeps moist cyclonic flow and
showers, along with strong wind, especially in orographically
favored mountains.

&&

&&

.AVIATION...

Frontal system will impact NorCal this evening into Sunday
morning. Expect widespread MVFR/IFR conditions during frontal
passage with local LIFR over mountains. Strong southwest winds
aloft with strong southerly winds in the valley. Wind gusts
ranging 30 to 50 kts...locally higher over ridgetops through at
least 06z. Airport Weather Warnings issued for KRDD and KSCK for
this evening. JBB

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Clear Lake/Southern
Lake County-Motherlode-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Burney Basin /
Eastern Shasta County-Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central
Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Motherlode-
Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-
Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta
County-Southern Sacramento Valley.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
Sacramento Valley-Motherlode-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento
Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 949 AM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

...HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MODERATE RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT FRONT...

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LIGHT THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
THEN INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AFTER 2 PM AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND AND RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
WIND DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINS. SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY
THEN DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHANCE OF NORTH BAY RAIN BY WEDNESDAY
THEN ALL OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST SATURDAY...RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 TENTHS OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS. KMUX RADAR SHOWS MORE RAIN ON THE WAY ALTHOUGH
LOOKS LIKE A DEFINITE BREAK CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
(WHICH THE HRRR ALSO INDICATES).

RAIN WILL QUICKLY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO OUR REGION. WPC
NOW HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND WITH GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING HEAVY RAIN LATER, DECIDED
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. ALSO ISSUED AN
UPDATE TO THE QPF GRIDS BASED OFF LATEST RFC VALUES, HOWEVER
AMOUNTS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS STILL ON TRACK SO WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS. BOTTOM LINE...PEOPLE THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY REGION SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW BEFORE THE
STORM HITS LATER TODAY.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED A PNS AT 3 AM WITH LATEST 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS. RADAR SHOWS OVERNIGHT STEADY RAINFALL MOVING
EASTWARD BUT MORE RETURNS STARTING TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE. WERE
STILL IN THE WARM ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND
PERIODIC RAINFALL THROUGH LUNCH TIME TODAY. IR SATELLITE OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS OR SO IS SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD BLOWING UP
OUT NEAR 130W/36N...EVIDENCE OF STRONG INCOMING JET STREAK AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS THE FEATURE
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON NOW FOR NEARLY THE LAST WEEK.
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE COAST TODAY AND EXPECT MODERATE
RAINS TO START IN EARNEST AROUND 2 PM OR SO OVER MUCH OF THE
GREATER BAY AREA. LOCAL HILLS SUCH AS BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

ANYWAY THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE OBVIOUS
FROM ROUGHLY 3 PM TO 8 PM LOCAL TIME WHEN VERY STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR OVER A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF TIME. DO EXPECT
SOME PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO SHOW UP AS EARLY AS LUNCH
TIME AND CURRENT TIMING OF WIND ADVISORY TO START THEN STILL LOOKS
GOOD. SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS OFTEN SEE WIND DAMAGE AND LINES DOWN IN
THESE TYPE OF PATTERNS AS SYNOPTIC FLOW AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
FLOWING OUT OF SALINAS VALLEY FOCUS UP THERE. ANYWAY THE HRRR AND
RAP SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINS FALL FROM ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 PM THIS EVENING (EARLIEST IN THE
NORTH BAY AND LATEST IN MONTEREY BAY REGION). STORM TOTALS FROM
NOW THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM TONIGHT SHOULD BRING 1-2 INCHES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 2-5 INCHES FOR THE NORTH BAY/SANTA CRUZ AND
SANTA LUCIA HILLS. (USUAL DRY SPOTS IN THE SALINAS AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH). THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ISSUES
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA WITH TRAFFIC...LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME AND
ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE ISSUES.

A DISTINCT LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MUCH LIGHTER SW WINDS.
SHOWER AND POST FRONTAL T-STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO ON
SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BRING GENTLE WARM ADVECTION
RAINS TO THE NORTH BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL PASS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE T-STORMS WILL OCCUR. RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS DONE
BY 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING RAINS SHOWERS BY 15Z MONDAY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER EVEN A WET START TO THE COMMUTE
IS OFTEN ENOUGH TO THROW THINGS INTO DISARRAY TO START OUT THE
WORK WEEK. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY
BUT BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

LOOKS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER BY WEDS FOR THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME WARM FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WILL HONE IN ON THOSE DETAILS AFTER WE GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS BUT THE STORMS LATER NEXT WEEK LOOK MODERATE
IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING WX CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG S-SE WINDS EXPECTED UP
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SHOWERY COLDER MORE UNSTABLE
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING ISSUED FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY S-SE WINDS. MVFR CIGS. RAIN.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY. RAIN.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 5:30 AM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
BEGINS 10 PM TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BE PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 FEET WITH 14 SECOND SWELL
PERIODS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT. IF FUTURE WAVE
MODEL FORECASTS TREND STEADY OR HIGHER WITH THE PEAK OF THIS SWELL
TRAIN THEN THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF
WARNING AT A LATER POINT IN TIME. PLEASE STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:27 AM PST SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
             FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ALL LOCATIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...MRY BAY FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL NOON
             GLW...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 909 AM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

...HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MODERATE RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT FRONT...

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LIGHT THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
THEN INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AFTER 2 PM AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND AND RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
WIND DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINS. SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY
THEN DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHANCE OF NORTH BAY RAIN BY WEDNESDAY
THEN ALL OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST SATURDAY...RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 TENTHS OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS. KMUX RADAR SHOWS MORE RAIN ON THE WAY ALTHOUGH
LOOKS LIKE A DEFINITE BREAK CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
(WHICH THE HRRR ALSO INDICATES).

RAIN WILL QUICKLY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO OUR REGION. WPC
NOW HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND WITH GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING HEAVY RAIN LATER, DECIDED
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. ALSO ISSUED AN
UPDATE TO THE QPF GRIDS BASED OFF LATEST RFC VALUES, HOWEVER
AMOUNTS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS STILL ON TRACK SO WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS. BOTTOM LINE...PEOPLE THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY REGION SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW BEFORE THE
STORM HITS LATER TODAY.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED A PNS AT 3 AM WITH LATEST 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS. RADAR SHOWS OVERNIGHT STEADY RAINFALL MOVING
EASTWARD BUT MORE RETURNS STARTING TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE. WERE
STILL IN THE WARM ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND
PERIODIC RAINFALL THROUGH LUNCH TIME TODAY. IR SATELLITE OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS OR SO IS SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD BLOWING UP
OUT NEAR 130W/36N...EVIDENCE OF STRONG INCOMING JET STREAK AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS THE FEATURE
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON NOW FOR NEARLY THE LAST WEEK.
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE COAST TODAY AND EXPECT MODERATE
RAINS TO START IN EARNEST AROUND 2 PM OR SO OVER MUCH OF THE
GREATER BAY AREA. LOCAL HILLS SUCH AS BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

ANYWAY THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE OBVIOUS
FROM ROUGHLY 3 PM TO 8 PM LOCAL TIME WHEN VERY STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR OVER A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF TIME. DO EXPECT
SOME PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO SHOW UP AS EARLY AS LUNCH
TIME AND CURRENT TIMING OF WIND ADVISORY TO START THEN STILL LOOKS
GOOD. SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS OFTEN SEE WIND DAMAGE AND LINES DOWN IN
THESE TYPE OF PATTERNS AS SYNOPTIC FLOW AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
FLOWING OUT OF SALINAS VALLEY FOCUS UP THERE. ANYWAY THE HRRR AND
RAP SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINS FALL FROM ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 PM THIS EVENING (EARLIEST IN THE
NORTH BAY AND LATEST IN MONTEREY BAY REGION). STORM TOTALS FROM
NOW THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM TONIGHT SHOULD BRING 1-2 INCHES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 2-5 INCHES FOR THE NORTH BAY/SANTA CRUZ AND
SANTA LUCIA HILLS. (USUAL DRY SPOTS IN THE SALINAS AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH). THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ISSUES
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA WITH TRAFFIC...LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME AND
ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE ISSUES.

A DISTINCT LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MUCH LIGHTER SW WINDS.
SHOWER AND POST FRONTAL T-STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO ON
SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BRING GENTLE WARM ADVECTION
RAINS TO THE NORTH BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL PASS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE T-STORMS WILL OCCUR. RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS DONE
BY 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING RAINS SHOWERS BY 15Z MONDAY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER EVEN A WET START TO THE COMMUTE
IS OFTEN ENOUGH TO THROW THINGS INTO DISARRAY TO START OUT THE
WORK WEEK. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY
BUT BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

LOOKS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER BY WEDS FOR THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME WARM FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WILL HONE IN ON THOSE DETAILS AFTER WE GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS BUT THE STORMS LATER NEXT WEEK LOOK MODERATE
IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:44 AM PST SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRONGEST WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON.
DETERIORATING WX CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN AND
HEAVY S-SE WIND COMBINED UP TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
WORTH NOTING PRE-FRONTAL S-SE WINDS OFTEN CAUSES A RAIN SHADOW FOR
PLACES LIKE THE SOUTH BAY AND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA THUS THE RAIN
MAY AT TIMES BECOME MORE PERIODIC TODAY IN PLACES THAT ARE IN THE
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERY COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVES
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING ISSUED FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY S-SE WINDS. MVFR CIGS. RAIN.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY. RAIN.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 5:30 AM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
BEGINS 10 PM TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BE PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 FEET WITH 14 SECOND SWELL
PERIODS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT. IF FUTURE WAVE
MODEL FORECASTS TREND STEADY OR HIGHER WITH THE PEAK OF THIS SWELL
TRAIN THEN THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF
WARNING AT A LATER POINT IN TIME. PLEASE STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:53 AM PST SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
             FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ALL LOCATIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...MRY BAY FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL NOON
             GLW...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 544 AM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

...HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MODERATE RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT FRONT...

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LIGHT THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
THEN INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AFTER 2 PM AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND AND RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
WIND DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINS. SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY
THEN DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHANCE OF NORTH BAY RAIN BY WEDNESDAY
THEN ALL OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:04 AM PST SATURDAY...ISSUED A PNS AT 3 AM
WITH LATEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS. RADAR SHOWS OVERNIGHT STEADY
RAINFALL MOVING EASTWARD BUT MORE RETURNS STARTING TO DEVELOP WELL
OFFSHORE. WERE STILL IN THE WARM ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT WITH MAINLY
LIGHT AND PERIODIC RAINFALL THROUGH LUNCH TIME TODAY. IR SATELLITE
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO IS SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD
BLOWING UP OUT NEAR 130W/36N...EVIDENCE OF STRONG INCOMING JET
STREAK AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS
THE FEATURE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON NOW FOR NEARLY THE
LAST WEEK. FEATURE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE COAST TODAY AND
EXPECT MODERATE RAINS TO START IN EARNEST AROUND 2 PM OR SO OVER
MUCH OF THE GREATER BAY AREA. LOCAL HILLS SUCH AS BIG SUR AND
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY.

ANYWAY THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE OBVIOUS
FROM ROUGHLY 3 PM TO 8 PM LOCAL TIME WHEN VERY STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR OVER A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF TIME. DO EXPECT
SOME PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO SHOW UP AS EARLY AS LUNCH
TIME AND CURRENT TIMING OF WIND ADVISORY TO START THEN STILL LOOKS
GOOD. SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS OFTEN SEE WIND DAMAGE AND LINES DOWN IN
THESE TYPE OF PATTERNS AS SYNOPTIC FLOW AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
FLOWING OUT OF SALINAS VALLEY FOCUS UP THERE. ANYWAY THE HRRR AND
RAP SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINS FALL FROM ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 PM THIS EVENING (EARLIEST IN THE
NORTH BAY AND LATEST IN MONTEREY BAY REGION). STORM TOTALS FROM
NOW THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM TONIGHT SHOULD BRING 1-2 INCHES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 2-5 INCHES FOR THE NORTH BAY/SANTA CRUZ AND
SANTA LUCIA HILLS. (USUAL DRY SPOTS IN THE SALINAS AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH). THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ISSUES
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA WITH TRAFFIC...LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME AND
ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE ISSUES.

A DISTINCT LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MUCH LIGHTER SW WINDS.
SHOWER AND POST FRONTAL T-STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO ON
SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BRING GENTLE WARM ADVECTION
RAINS TO THE NORTH BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL PASS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE T-STORMS WILL OCCUR. RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS DONE
BY 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING RAINS SHOWERS BY 15Z MONDAY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER EVEN A WET START TO THE COMMUTE
IS OFTEN ENOUGH TO THROW THINGS INTO DISARRAY TO START OUT THE
WORK WEEK. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY
BUT BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

LOOKS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER BY WEDS FOR THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME WARM FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WILL HONE IN ON THOSE DETAILS AFTER WE GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS BUT THE STORMS LATER NEXT WEEK LOOK MODERATE
IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:44 AM PST SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRONGEST WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON.
DETERIORATING WX CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN AND
HEAVY S-SE WIND COMBINED UP TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
WORTH NOTING PRE-FRONTAL S-SE WINDS OFTEN CAUSES A RAIN SHADOW FOR
PLACES LIKE THE SOUTH BAY AND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA THUS THE RAIN
MAY AT TIMES BECOME MORE PERIODIC TODAY IN PLACES THAT ARE IN THE
LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERY COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVES
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING ISSUED FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY S-SE WINDS. MVFR CIGS. RAIN.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY. RAIN.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 5:30 AM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
BEGINS 10 PM TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BE PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 FEET WITH 14 SECOND SWELL
PERIODS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT. IF FUTURE WAVE
MODEL FORECASTS TREND STEADY OR HIGHER WITH THE PEAK OF THIS SWELL
TRAIN THEN THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF
WARNING AT A LATER POINT IN TIME. PLEASE STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:43 AM PST SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ADVANCES EAST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COLD UNSTABLE
AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ADVANCE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A
LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...SF BAY AREA FROM NOON TO 11 PM SAT
             WIND ADVISORY...MRY BAY AREA FROM 1 PM SAT TO 1 AM SUNDAY
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...MRY BAY FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL NOON
             GLW...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 404 AM PST SAT MAR 5 2016

...HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MODERATE RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT FRONT...

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LIGHT THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
THEN INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AFTER 2 PM AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE BAY AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND AND RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
WIND DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINS. SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY
THEN DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHANCE OF NORTH BAY RAIN BY WEDNESDAY
THEN ALL OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:04 AM PST SATURDAY...ISSUED A PNS AT 3 AM
WITH LATEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS. RADAR SHOWS OVERNIGHT STEADY
RAINFALL MOVING EASTWARD BUT MORE RETURNS STARTING TO DEVELOP WELL
OFFSHORE. WERE STILL IN THE WARM ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT WITH MAINLY
LIGHT AND PERIODIC RAINFALL THROUGH LUNCH TIME TODAY. IR SATELLITE
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO IS SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD
BLOWING UP OUT NEAR 130W/36N...EVIDENCE OF STRONG INCOMING JET
STREAK AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS
THE FEATURE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON NOW FOR NEARLY THE
LAST WEEK. FEATURE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE COAST TODAY AND
EXPECT MODERATE RAINS TO START IN EARNEST AROUND 2 PM OR SO OVER
MUCH OF THE GREATER BAY AREA. LOCAL HILLS SUCH AS BIG SUR AND
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY.

ANYWAY THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE OBVIOUS
FROM ROUGHLY 3 PM TO 8 PM LOCAL TIME WHEN VERY STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR OVER A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF TIME. DO EXPECT
SOME PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO SHOW UP AS EARLY AS LUNCH
TIME AND CURRENT TIMING OF WIND ADVISORY TO START THEN STILL LOOKS
GOOD. SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS OFTEN SEE WIND DAMAGE AND LINES DOWN IN
THESE TYPE OF PATTERNS AS SYNOPTIC FLOW AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
FLOWING OUT OF SALINAS VALLEY FOCUS UP THERE. ANYWAY THE HRRR AND
RAP SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINS FALL FROM ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 PM THIS EVENING (EARLIEST IN THE
NORTH BAY AND LATEST IN MONTEREY BAY REGION). STORM TOTALS FROM
NOW THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM TONIGHT SHOULD BRING 1-2 INCHES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 2-5 INCHES FOR THE NORTH BAY/SANTA CRUZ AND
SANTA LUCIA HILLS. (USUAL DRY SPOTS IN THE SALINAS AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH). THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ISSUES
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA WITH TRAFFIC...LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME AND
ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE ISSUES.

A DISTINCT LULL IN THE ACTION WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MUCH LIGHTER SW WINDS.
SHOWER AND POST FRONTAL T-STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO ON
SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BRING GENTLE WARM ADVECTION
RAINS TO THE NORTH BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL PASS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE T-STORMS WILL OCCUR. RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS DONE
BY 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING RAINS SHOWERS BY 15Z MONDAY
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER EVEN A WET START TO THE COMMUTE
IS OFTEN ENOUGH TO THROW THINGS INTO DISARRAY TO START OUT THE
WORK WEEK. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY
BUT BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

LOOKS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER BY WEDS FOR THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME WARM FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES. MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WILL HONE IN ON THOSE DETAILS AFTER WE GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS BUT THE STORMS LATER NEXT WEEK LOOK MODERATE
IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST FRIDAY...RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THINGS WILL RAMP
UP IN TERMS OF WINDS AND RAIN. CIGS WILL BE BOUNCING UP AND DOWN
BUT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AFTER 16Z WITH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KT AND INCREASE EVEN MORE TO 30-35 KT AFTER 21Z. WIND SHEAR
MAY BE A FACTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 925 MB WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST
50 KT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS. BASES MAINLY 2500 FEET LOWERING TO
1000-1500 FEET AFTER 16Z. RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BECOME STEADY
MODERATE RAIN SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER 16Z. WINDS
FURTHER INCREASING AS FRONT MOVES IN AND WILL LIKELY REACH
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
STEADIER RAIN RETURNING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST FRIDAY...LARGE SWELLS WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE COAST BY MONDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS MAY REACH 15 TO 20 FEET
WITH SWELL PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS. WEST FACING BEACHES WILL FEEL
THE BRUNT OF THIS SWELL TRAIN... WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS... LARGE
SHORE BREAK... AND SNEAKER WAVES POSSIBLE. A COMBINATION OF HIGH
SURF... MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AND HIGH TIDE MAY ALSO LEAD TO
COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. REMEMBER... NEVER
UNDERESTIMATE THE OVERWHELMING POWER OF THE OCEAN... SEVERAL
INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN SWEPT OUT TO SEA THIS SEASON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:26 AM PST SATURDAY...  A POWERFUL STORM WILL
BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DECREASE EARLY SUNDAY AFTER THE STORM MOVES THROUGH BUT COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD
WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...SF BAY AREA FROM NOON TO 11 PM SAT
             WIND ADVISORY...MRY BAY AREA FROM 1 PM SAT TO 1 AM SUNDAY
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...MRY BAY FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL NOON
             GLW...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 856 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

The combination of a rather gusty south wind and extensive mid and
high level cloud cover should help keep temperatures on the mild
side tonight. We continue to watch a weak shortwave trof out to
our west that will bring in an increasing threat for showers
and possibly a thunderstorm or two, especially Monday morning.
00Z ILX sounding still quite dry from the surface up to 15000
feet, but forecast soundings off the RAP model continue to
moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere late tonight as
the aforementioned upper disturbance approaches. Initially,
with the rather unfavorable environment for convection later
tonight, most of the precip will be mainly showers. However,
as we continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere
towards morning with the approach of the shortwave, there
may be enough elevated cape to help spark some isolated storms
at times during the morning.

As the shortwave shifts off to our northeast by afternoon, our
rain chances will take a break for at least 12 hours before the
next wave of showers affects mainly west central IL early Tuesday
morning. The current forecast has these trends handled well, so
other than some minor tweaks to the hourly temperatures, no other
changes were needed that would warrant a zone update at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Short-wave trough evident on 19z/1pm water vapor imagery over Kansas
will ripple northeastward, spreading clouds and eventually a few
showers into portions of central Illinois tonight.  Airmass is
initially quite dry below 500mb as evidenced by current LAPS
soundings, so think precip may be even slower to arrive than some
models would suggest.  NAM/GFS/SREF indicate showers spreading in
from the southwest between 06z and 09z: however, the Rapid Refresh
delays precip until after 09z.  At this point, will only carry
slight chance PoPs west of I-55 by mid to late evening, then will
ramp up to high chance after midnight.  NAM forecast soundings show
modest elevated instability developing overnight, with MUCAPE values
of 100-150J/kg.  Will therefore mention isolated thunder as well.
Further east, conditions will remain dry east of the I-57 corridor
through the night.  Will be a breezy and mild night, with overnight
lows remaining in the middle to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

A much warmer and wetter pattern will develop over the next few days
as a large scale ridge currently over the central U.S. shifts
eastward allowing a plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture to position
over central Illinois and the surrounding area along with a somewhat
stationary frontal boundary. Current GFS model progs bring
precipitable water values of 1 to 1.3 inches from the period from
Monday morning through at least midweek, which would be near maximum
values for this time of year. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary is
expected to move into the area and linger Wednesday into Thursday.
The exact movement of this boundary remains somewhat uncertain, but
it will play a large role in where periods of heavier precipitation
will set up. Nevertheless, midweek, especially Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning looks to have the best chance for heavy
precipitation, especially I-72 southward. Initially, however, a
couple of weaker disturbances will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Monday a strong low level jet combined with rich
moisture will continue to affect areas mainly west of I-57 early in
the day. Additional disturbances moving into the upper Midwest along
the approaching frontal boundary will bring more showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night, again primarily west of I-
57.

Toward the end of the forecast period next weekend...a low
originating as a cut-off low over Mexico midweek could become a
factor in developing more precipitation over central IL, however
latest trends have been to slow down the feature and eject it more
toward the southeastern U.S. instead of the Midwest. Nevertheless,
it still bears watching.

High temperatures should reach the mid to upper 60s Monday and
Tuesday before falling somewhat to the neighborhood of 60 to 65 the
remainder of the week and next weekend as the frontal boundary slips
off to the south. Of course, the position of the boundary and exact
timing of the precipitation periods will have impacts on these
temperatures later in the week. Lows will remain in the 50s Monday
night and Tuesday night, followed by cooler but still mild readings
in the 40s and mainly lower 50s the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Timing of showers into the forecast area late this evening or
overnight and LLWS potential the two main forecast concerns
this period. Widespread mid and high level clouds have
overspread the forecast area this afternoon and expect little
change from that this evening with mostly mid level clouds
across the TAF sites thru 06z. As a weak weather disturbance
approaches the area late tonight, moisture will gradually
increase in the lower levels of the atmosphere to bring
scattered showers to the forecast area after 04z at SPI to
around 09z in CMI. Once the rain develops, look for cigs
to drop to low VFR and possibly a period of MVFR cigs
in the 12z-18z time frame. The rain should shift off to
our east by afternoon with VFR cigs expected then.

Still looking like non-convective LLWS at most of our sites
this evening as forecast soundings continue to show a south
to southwest wind around 50 kts at around 2000 feet AGL.
Surface winds will be southerly at 12 to 17 kts with occasional
gusts up to 25 kts overnight, and then south to southwest winds
are expected on Monday at 15 to 20 kts with a few gusts up to
30 kts at times.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Despite passage of a short-wave trough and its associated cold
front, clouds continue to blanket central Illinois this afternoon.
In fact, 20z/2pm visible satellite imagery shows continuous cloud
cover upstream into Wisconsin and the eastern half of Iowa as well.
Based on the trajectory of the clouds, the KILX CWA will remain on
the southwest periphery of the cloud shield through at least early
evening.  HRRR has been consistently showing the clouds partially
dissipating from the W/SW toward sunset, resulting in mostly clear
skies across much of the area by mid to late evening.  Think this
may be a bit too aggressive with the clearing, so have slowed trends
from previous forecasts.  Have started the evening with mostly
cloudy skies everywhere except across the far southwest around
Jacksonville where partly to mostly clear conditions will prevail.
As per the latest HRRR, have then cleared things out from west to
east through the evening, but have maintained mostly cloudy skies
northeast of I-74 until well after midnight.  Due to the clearing
skies and diminishing winds, have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a
couple of degrees, with frosty overnight lows in the middle to upper
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Mild temperatures and wet weather will be the primary features for
much of the upcoming forecast period through next Saturday.

For Sunday, brisk southerly winds around 15 mph and gusts around 25
mph will set up by afternoon west of I-57 as a corridor of strong
moist southwesterly flow sets up over the Plains. This will initiate
showers and a few thunderstorms, potentially creeping eastward into
west-central IL Sunday night. Highs should reach the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees in Springfield and Jacksonville. Mild lows in the
mid 40s expected Sunday night as precipitable water around 1 inch,
or approaching 99th percentile for this time of year, plumes over
central IL.

On Monday, southerly winds expected to increase to 15-20 mph and
gust to 25-30 mph.  High temperatures should reach the mid 60s as
warm advection continues, and rich precipitable water continues to
stream over Illinois. Still, weak forcing appears it will result in
modest precipitation chances and amounts, mainly I-72 northward.

The moisture plume looks to remain in the vicinity through midweek
as a frontal boundary lingers just to the northwest, and a series of
disturbances track along the front bringing periods of heavier rain.
Some uncertainty remain in the location of the front through midweek
and this will modulate the exact timing and location of
precipitation through midweek, however likely to categorical (80%+)
chance of precipitation included in the forecast for Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, and current precipitation amounts 2-2.5
inches I-72 southward expected through this period, with 0.5 to 2.0
inches to the north. Instability pattern indicates occasional
thunderstorms a possibility. A hydrologic outlook remains in effect
to address the heavy rain concern during this period. Highs through
midweek expected to remain mild, from around 60 to 65 degrees.

Next weekend...a cut-off low that should be meanering over Mexico
midweek is progged to eject northeast toward central IL.
Unfortunately, the timing and track of this feature is highly
uncertain as evidenced by a variety of differing model and ensemble
solutions available at this time. This feature will have impacts on
the position of the frontal boundary, temperatures, and
precipitation for central IL. With the front position still a
significant question, PoP`s generally remain in place over most of
the forecast area into Saturday. High temperatures forecast from
around 60 to 65, but this will be subject to change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

MVFR ceilings continue to spill southward into central Illinois
behind a departing cold front late this morning. While visible
satellite imagery shows plenty of clouds upstream across
Iowa/Wisconsin, there are also a few holes developing in the
overcast. HRRR has consistently suggested the cloud deck would
begin to erode this afternoon, with any appreciable clearing
holding off until evening. 12z NAM forecast soundings support this
as well, with skies clearing at KSPI around 00z...then further
northeast to KCMI by 03z. Skies will then remain mostly clear
through the night before WAA on the back side of retreating high
pressure brings increasing mid-level clouds Sunday morning. NAM
shows rapidly increasing moisture within the 12000 to 15000ft
layer across the western half of the area after 14z, so have
included a broken mid deck at all sites except KDEC and KCMI.
Winds will initially be strong/gusty from the northwest this
afternoon, then will become light/variable tonight as high
pressure drifts overhead.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Barnes




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1134 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Weak cold front is currently passing through central Illinois,
with 16z/10am obs showing it approaching the Indiana border. No
precip is occurring with the front: however, quite a bit of low
cloud cover is spilling southward in its wake. Latest satellite
imagery shows ample clouds upstream across Iowa, Wisconsin, and
Minnesota. Based on trajectory of clouds, central Illinois will
remain on the S/SW edge of the cloud shield today. Most high-res
guidance is suggesting the clouds will begin to erode this
afternoon, resulting in partial clearing across the S/SW KILX
CWA. Elsewhere around the area, skies will remain mostly cloudy
throughout the day. Northwesterly winds will gust to between 20
and 30mph behind the front, while afternoon high temperatures
reach the middle to upper 40s across much of the area. The
exception will be south of I-70 around Flora and Olney where
additional sunshine will boost highs into the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Patchy fog will affect central Illinois ahead of an advancing
cold front early this morning. The fog will clear by mid-morning as
cold front departs into Indiana by 11 am. Little to no precipitation
is expected with the frontal passage in central Illinois, except for
possibly a few sprinkles in areas northeast of Champaign to
Danville. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest behind the
front, and become breezy with gusts to 25 mph at times later this
morning and this afternoon.

The latest HRRR and RAP guidance are pointing towards enough
residual low level moisture behind the front for mostly cloudy skies
to linger through at least mid-afternoon. Breaks will eventually
develop in the cloud layer due to turbulent mixing of dry mid-level
air toward the surface. Areas southwest of Springfield to Mattoon
will have the best chances of seeing sunshine earlier, but even
northeast areas should see sunshine break through later this
afternoon. Even limited late afternoon sunshine should help high
temperatures reach the mid 40s north of I-74, with lower 50s for
areas from Jacksonville to Effingham to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Mild and wet period shaping up for much of the upcoming week, as
upper flow finally trends more toward the southwest. Main issue will
be with the rains, as a frontal boundary will be draped over the
state part of the time, and will limit some of the rainfall north of
it around midweek.

High pressure will quickly pass through the Midwest tonight, and
southerly winds will be in place by Sunday morning and become a bit
gusty. This will bring temperatures well into the 50s, with some 60
degree readings possible over the southwest CWA. Some WAA-type
precip expected to develop by afternoon west of the Illinois border,
but forecast soundings in our area quite parched below 700 mb until
evening, and thus will keep the daytime hours dry albeit with
increasing clouds. Have limited mentionable PoP`s Sunday night to
west of I-55, with most of the energy tracking into northwest
Illinois.

On Monday, southerly winds expected to gust from 25-30 mph, pushing
temperatures well into the 60s. During this time, an upper trough
will be digging southward along the California coast, closing off a
low over the Baja. Nice moisture surge coming northward from the
Gulf of Mexico will combine with a wave/front in the northern stream
to gradually increase rain chances from west to east across the
state. Reasonable agreement among the models through about Tuesday
evening with the cold front being just to our northwest. Waves of
low pressure will surge northeast along the front bringing periods
of heavier rain, but how far south the front makes it first will be
key. The ECMWF is slowest in exiting the rain (not until Thursday
evening over the southeast CWA), while the GFS and Canadian show
periodic surges of rain until Thursday morning. Went with
categorical PoP`s (80%) for most areas east of I-55 Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. WPC progs and blended model guidance
suggesting potential for 3-4 inches of rain through the week in this
area, subject to the oscillations of the front. Hydrologic Outlook
product is being used to address this heavy rain concern for the
time being.

The upper low will only slowly drift through northern Mexico, cut
off from the northern flow through much of the week. Late in the
period, the GFS and ECMWF show this low finally ejecting northeast,
although the GFS is much faster in bringing the frontal boundary
back north. With the front position still a significant question,
PoP`s generally remain in place over most of the forecast area into
Friday. Temperatures north of the front will cool a bit mid week,
but still be mid-upper 50s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

MVFR ceilings continue to spill southward into central Illinois
behind a departing cold front late this morning. While visible
satellite imagery shows plenty of clouds upstream across
Iowa/Wisconsin, there are also a few holes developing in the
overcast. HRRR has consistently suggested the cloud deck would
begin to erode this afternoon, with any appreciable clearing
holding off until evening. 12z NAM forecast soundings support this
as well, with skies clearing at KSPI around 00z...then further
northeast to KCMI by 03z. Skies will then remain mostly clear
through the night before WAA on the back side of retreating high
pressure brings increasing mid-level clouds Sunday morning. NAM
shows rapidly increasing moisture within the 12000 to 15000ft
layer across the western half of the area after 14z, so have
included a broken mid deck at all sites except KDEC and KCMI.
Winds will initially be strong/gusty from the northwest this
afternoon, then will become light/variable tonight as high
pressure drifts overhead.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1035 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Weak cold front is currently passing through central Illinois,
with 16z/10am obs showing it approaching the Indiana border. No
precip is occurring with the front: however, quite a bit of low
cloud cover is spilling southward in its wake. Latest satellite
imagery shows ample clouds upstream across Iowa, Wisconsin, and
Minnesota. Based on trajectory of clouds, central Illinois will
remain on the S/SW edge of the cloud shield today. Most high-res
guidance is suggesting the clouds will begin to erode this
afternoon, resutling in partial clearing across the S/SW KILX CWA.
Elsewhere around the area, skies will remain mostly cloudy
throughout the day. Northwesterly winds will gust to between 20
and 30mph behind the front, while afternoon high temperatures
reach the middle to upper 40s across much of the area. The
exception will be south of I-70 around Flora and Olney where
additional sunshine will boost highs into the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Patchy fog will affect central Illinois ahead of an advancing
cold front early this morning. The fog will clear by mid-morning as
cold front departs into Indiana by 11 am. Little to no precipitation
is expected with the frontal passage in central Illinois, except for
possibly a few sprinkles in areas northeast of Champaign to
Danville. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest behind the
front, and become breezy with gusts to 25 mph at times later this
morning and this afternoon.

The latest HRRR and RAP guidance are pointing towards enough
residual low level moisture behind the front for mostly cloudy skies
to linger through at least mid-afternoon. Breaks will eventually
develop in the cloud layer due to turbulent mixing of dry mid-level
air toward the surface. Areas southwest of Springfield to Mattoon
will have the best chances of seeing sunshine earlier, but even
northeast areas should see sunshine break through later this
afternoon. Even limited late afternoon sunshine should help high
temperatures reach the mid 40s north of I-74, with lower 50s for
areas from Jacksonville to Effingham to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Mild and wet period shaping up for much of the upcoming week, as
upper flow finally trends more toward the southwest. Main issue will
be with the rains, as a frontal boundary will be draped over the
state part of the time, and will limit some of the rainfall north of
it around midweek.

High pressure will quickly pass through the Midwest tonight, and
southerly winds will be in place by Sunday morning and become a bit
gusty. This will bring temperatures well into the 50s, with some 60
degree readings possible over the southwest CWA. Some WAA-type
precip expected to develop by afternoon west of the Illinois border,
but forecast soundings in our area quite parched below 700 mb until
evening, and thus will keep the daytime hours dry albeit with
increasing clouds. Have limited mentionable PoP`s Sunday night to
west of I-55, with most of the energy tracking into northwest
Illinois.

On Monday, southerly winds expected to gust from 25-30 mph, pushing
temperatures well into the 60s. During this time, an upper trough
will be digging southward along the California coast, closing off a
low over the Baja. Nice moisture surge coming northward from the
Gulf of Mexico will combine with a wave/front in the northern stream
to gradually increase rain chances from west to east across the
state. Reasonable agreement among the models through about Tuesday
evening with the cold front being just to our northwest. Waves of
low pressure will surge northeast along the front bringing periods
of heavier rain, but how far south the front makes it first will be
key. The ECMWF is slowest in exiting the rain (not until Thursday
evening over the southeast CWA), while the GFS and Canadian show
periodic surges of rain until Thursday morning. Went with
categorical PoP`s (80%) for most areas east of I-55 Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. WPC progs and blended model guidance
suggesting potential for 3-4 inches of rain through the week in this
area, subject to the oscillations of the front. Hydrologic Outlook
product is being used to address this heavy rain concern for the
time being.

The upper low will only slowly drift through northern Mexico, cut
off from the northern flow through much of the week. Late in the
period, the GFS and ECMWF show this low finally ejecting northeast,
although the GFS is much faster in bringing the frontal boundary
back north. With the front position still a significant question,
PoP`s generally remain in place over most of the forecast area into
Friday. Temperatures north of the front will cool a bit mid week,
but still be mid-upper 50s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

A cold front, currently passing on a line from Galesburg to
Quincy, will continue to track east across our area this morning.
Forecast soundings and last few runs of the HRRR model correctly
depicted the IFR/LIFR ceilings in over our eastern terminals of
CMI, BMI, and DEC. PIA also dropped down to VLIFR vis and IFR cig.
Conditions will improve to VFR at all the terminal sites as the
cold front passes between 13z and 16z.

Satellite images show a region of high MVFR and VFR clouds
rotating into NW IL. They are poised to affect all of our terminal
sites later this morning and early this afternoon, with less
coverage for the southern TAF sites of SPI and DEC. Turbulent
mixing of dry mid level air should help to create breaks in cloud
cover as the afternoon progresses.

The winds are the other issue today, with southwest winds becoming
light as the cold front passes, then increasing out of the
northwest shortly after FROPA. Sustained winds will become 12-16kt
with gusts to 23kt at times late this morning and early this
afternoon. Pressure rises will weaken later this afternoon, with
gusts diminishing by sunset.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 603 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Patchy fog will affect central Illinois ahead of an advancing
cold front early this morning. The fog will clear by mid-morning as
cold front departs into Indiana by 11 am. Little to no precipitation
is expected with the frontal passage in central Illinois, except for
possibly a few sprinkles in areas northeast of Champaign to
Danville. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest behind the
front, and become breezy with gusts to 25 mph at times later this
morning and this afternoon.

The latest HRRR and RAP guidance are pointing towards enough
residual low level moisture behind the front for mostly cloudy skies
to linger through at least mid-afternoon. Breaks will eventually
develop in the cloud layer due to turbulent mixing of dry mid-level
air toward the surface. Areas southwest of Springfield to Mattoon
will have the best chances of seeing sunshine earlier, but even
northeast areas should see sunshine break through later this
afternoon. Even limited late afternoon sunshine should help high
temperatures reach the mid 40s north of I-74, with lower 50s for
areas from Jacksonville to Effingham to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Mild and wet period shaping up for much of the upcoming week, as
upper flow finally trends more toward the southwest. Main issue will
be with the rains, as a frontal boundary will be draped over the
state part of the time, and will limit some of the rainfall north of
it around midweek.

High pressure will quickly pass through the Midwest tonight, and
southerly winds will be in place by Sunday morning and become a bit
gusty. This will bring temperatures well into the 50s, with some 60
degree readings possible over the southwest CWA. Some WAA-type
precip expected to develop by afternoon west of the Illinois border,
but forecast soundings in our area quite parched below 700 mb until
evening, and thus will keep the daytime hours dry albeit with
increasing clouds. Have limited mentionable PoP`s Sunday night to
west of I-55, with most of the energy tracking into northwest
Illinois.

On Monday, southerly winds expected to gust from 25-30 mph, pushing
temperatures well into the 60s. During this time, an upper trough
will be digging southward along the California coast, closing off a
low over the Baja. Nice moisture surge coming northward from the
Gulf of Mexico will combine with a wave/front in the northern stream
to gradually increase rain chances from west to east across the
state. Reasonable agreement among the models through about Tuesday
evening with the cold front being just to our northwest. Waves of
low pressure will surge northeast along the front bringing periods
of heavier rain, but how far south the front makes it first will be
key. The ECMWF is slowest in exiting the rain (not until Thursday
evening over the southeast CWA), while the GFS and Canadian show
periodic surges of rain until Thursday morning. Went with
categorical PoP`s (80%) for most areas east of I-55 Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. WPC progs and blended model guidance
suggesting potential for 3-4 inches of rain through the week in this
area, subject to the oscillations of the front. Hydrologic Outlook
product is being used to address this heavy rain concern for the
time being.

The upper low will only slowly drift through northern Mexico, cut
off from the northern flow through much of the week. Late in the
period, the GFS and ECMWF show this low finally ejecting northeast,
although the GFS is much faster in bringing the frontal boundary
back north. With the front position still a significant question,
PoP`s generally remain in place over most of the forecast area into
Friday. Temperatures north of the front will cool a bit mid week,
but still be mid-upper 50s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

A cold front, currently passing on a line from Galesburg to
Quincy, will continue to track east across our area this morning.
Forecast soundings and last few runs of the HRRR model correctly
depicted the IFR/LIFR ceilings in over our eastern terminals of
CMI, BMI, and DEC. PIA also dropped down to VLIFR vis and IFR cig.
Conditions will improve to VFR at all the terminal sites as the
cold front passes between 13z and 16z.

Satellite images show a region of high MVFR and VFR clouds
rotating into NW IL. They are poised to affect all of our terminal
sites later this morning and early this afternoon, with less
coverage for the southern TAF sites of SPI and DEC. Turbulent
mixing of dry mid level air should help to create breaks in cloud
cover as the afternoon progresses.

The winds are the other issue today, with southwest winds becoming
light as the cold front passes, then increasing out of the
northwest shortly after FROPA. Sustained winds will become 12-16kt
with gusts to 23kt at times late this morning and early this
afternoon. Pressure rises will weaken later this afternoon, with
gusts diminishing by sunset.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 242 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Patchy fog will affect central Illinois ahead of an advancing
cold front early this morning. The fog will clear by mid-morning as
cold front departs into Indiana by 11 am. Little to no precipitation
is expected with the frontal passage in central Illinois, except for
possibly a few sprinkles in areas northeast of Champaign to
Danville. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest behind the
front, and become breezy with gusts to 25 mph at times later this
morning and this afternoon.

The latest HRRR and RAP guidance are pointing towards enough
residual low level moisture behind the front for mostly cloudy skies
to linger through at least mid-afternoon. Breaks will eventually
develop in the cloud layer due to turbulent mixing of dry mid-level
air toward the surface. Areas southwest of Springfield to Mattoon
will have the best chances of seeing sunshine earlier, but even
northeast areas should see sunshine break through later this
afternoon. Even limited late afternoon sunshine should help high
temperatures reach the mid 40s north of I-74, with lower 50s for
areas from Jacksonville to Effingham to Lawrenceville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

Mild and wet period shaping up for much of the upcoming week, as
upper flow finally trends more toward the southwest. Main issue will
be with the rains, as a frontal boundary will be draped over the
state part of the time, and will limit some of the rainfall north of
it around midweek.

High pressure will quickly pass through the Midwest tonight, and
southerly winds will be in place by Sunday morning and become a bit
gusty. This will bring temperatures well into the 50s, with some 60
degree readings possible over the southwest CWA. Some WAA-type
precip expected to develop by afternoon west of the Illinois border,
but forecast soundings in our area quite parched below 700 mb until
evening, and thus will keep the daytime hours dry albeit with
increasing clouds. Have limited mentionable PoP`s Sunday night to
west of I-55, with most of the energy tracking into northwest
Illinois.

On Monday, southerly winds expected to gust from 25-30 mph, pushing
temperatures well into the 60s. During this time, an upper trough
will be digging southward along the California coast, closing off a
low over the Baja. Nice moisture surge coming northward from the
Gulf of Mexico will combine with a wave/front in the northern stream
to gradually increase rain chances from west to east across the
state. Reasonable agreement among the models through about Tuesday
evening with the cold front being just to our northwest. Waves of
low pressure will surge northeast along the front bringing periods
of heavier rain, but how far south the front makes it first will be
key. The ECMWF is slowest in exiting the rain (not until Thursday
evening over the southeast CWA), while the GFS and Canadian show
periodic surges of rain until Thursday morning. Went with
categorical PoP`s (80%) for most areas east of I-55 Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. WPC progs and blended model guidance
suggesting potential for 3-4 inches of rain through the week in this
area, subject to the oscillations of the front. Hydrologic Outlook
product is being used to address this heavy rain concern for the
time being.

The upper low will only slowly drift through northern Mexico, cut
off from the northern flow through much of the week. Late in the
period, the GFS and ECMWF show this low finally ejecting northeast,
although the GFS is much faster in bringing the frontal boundary
back north. With the front position still a significant question,
PoP`s generally remain in place over most of the forecast area into
Friday. Temperatures north of the front will cool a bit mid week,
but still be mid-upper 50s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

A cold front, currently over east central Iowa will track across
our area Saturday morning. Forecast soundings and last few runs
of the HRRR model indicate a deterioration in cigs and vsbys
after 06z until the front shifts east of the area after 12z.
Subsidence in the wake of the upper wave should bring cigs back
to MVFR or even low VFR by afternoon. Once the rain band shifts
to our east after 06z, there may be enough lift for some drizzle
at our BMI and CMI locations but coverage too limited to include
in the TAFs at this time.

Surface winds will be southerly at 10 to 15 kts overnight and
then become southwest towards dawn at 5 to 10 kts, and then shift
into the northwest in the 12z to 15z time frame with speeds of 12
to 17 kts with a few gusts around 23 kts thru 21z before winds
diminish quickly from a northerly direction around 00z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1131 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

Another fast moving shortwave to our northwest will sweep across
the region late tonight accompanied by scattered rain showers
which may mix with a little sleet and light snow across our
north for about an hour or two. The cold front, currently over
central Iowa, will track through our area after midnight taking
the threat for rain with it as it moves to our east by dawn
Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front will help to keep
temperatures rather steady in the mid 30s to around 40 through
the evening before falling off towards dawn Saturday. Update
already sent out to address precip timing and type across our
northern counties, as a result, no additional updates needed at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING FOR DRY/QUIET
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CWA OBSERVING
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
STILL THE FAR WESTERN CWA NEAR THE JACKSONVILLE AREA WHERE LOW
STRATUS IS STILL SITUATED. HOWEVER...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF
PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.

MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WHERE THE STRONGER/MORE
ORGANIZED FORCING WILL RESIDE. STRONG WAA ALREADY NOTED
APPROACHING NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN STRENGTHEN AS IT FOCUSES OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PREVALENT DRIER AIR IN PLACE TO
BECOME OVERCOME WITH LIGHT PRECIP TO AT LEAST BE OBSERVED OVER A
FEW HOUR WINDOW TIME FRAME LATE THIS EVENING TO JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BRIEF AND LOW IN
COVERAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS GIVEN THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND WARM WEDGE
ALOFT WITH THE PERSISTENT WAA. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE
OBSERVED INITIALLY WITH WET BULBING. THIS COULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA FROM LACON TO DANVILLE...BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AS THE
ENTIRE COLUMN FURTHER WARMS AND WITH THE LOSS OF CRYSTALS. TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH ANY
FREEZING RAIN NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK LATE TONIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO HAVE
EXITED BY THIS TIME.

THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL EXIT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OCCURRING. BACKING LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL HELP STEER IN A WARMER AIRMASS TO THE REGION...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL START A
PERIOD OF WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH THIS WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A
RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE OF
PERIODIC SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOME WEAKER MID LEVEL
IMPULES PUSH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER...CHANCES REALLY INCREASE CLOSER TO MID WEEK AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING RAMPS UP AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF
RAIN. THIS WILL BE DUE IN PART TO A STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
PLACE SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

A cold front, currently over east central Iowa will track across
our area Saturday morning. Forecast soundings and last few runs
of the HRRR model indicate a deterioration in cigs and vsbys
after 06z until the front shifts east of the area after 12z.
Subsidence in the wake of the upper wave should bring cigs back
to MVFR or even low VFR by afternoon. Once the rain band shifts
to our east after 06z, there may be enough lift for some drizzle
at our BMI and CMI locations but coverage too limited to include
in the TAFs at this time.

Surface winds will be southerly at 10 to 15 kts overnight and
then become southwest towards dawn at 5 to 10 kts, and then shift
into the northwest in the 12z to 15z time frame with speeds of 12
to 17 kts with a few gusts around 23 kts thru 21z before winds
diminish quickly from a northerly direction around 00z.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ/KREIN
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ/KREIN
AVIATION...Smith




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1044 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
200 PM CST

THROUGH SATURDAY...

ALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE SHARPLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON SOME
PAVED SURFACES.

THE CENTER OF THE MAIN CLIPPER SHORT WAVE IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS ITS DRIVING JET SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
THIS EVENING...HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL MAXIMIZE OVER
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED ON UPSTREAM MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM OMAHA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE SOUTH OF THE VORTICITY CENTER. AS THIS
CATCHES UP TO THE LIFT AND SATURATION...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
PRESENTLY IN MN/NORTHERN IA SHOULD SHOW SOUTHEAST EXPANSION AND
PROBABLY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WHICH
CORRELATES TO WHEN IT IS OVER THE AREA.

HAVE ONLY MADE FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO HOURLY TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WET SNOW THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY BE A MIX WITH RAIN...AND TOWARD
I-39 IT COULD REMAIN A MIX OR EVEN JUST RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
BECAUSE OF THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FORCING AND FOCUS...THE
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO LAST TWO HOURS OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
THE MODERATE INTENSITY EVEN A SHORTER SPAN. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY...
VISIBILITY...AND HOURLY SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE PRIMARY TIMING
FOR THE CHICAGO METRO LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WETTER QUALITY OF THE SNOW AND TEMPERATURES OF 31-35 SHOULD LIMIT
MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT...THOUGH GRASSY SURFACES WILL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK COAT IN NORTH OF I-80 COMMUNITIES. SOUTH OF
I-80 MORE LIMITED TIME AND FORCING FOR SATURATION WILL PROVIDE
MORE VIRGA /RADAR ECHOES NOT REACHING THE GROUND/ THAN
PRECIPITATION...SO NO ACCUMULATION FORECAST.

LOSS OF ICE HAPPENS RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND LIFT STILL ARE
PROVIDED ON RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS EVEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. SO
CONTINUE FORECAST DRIZZLE CHANCES. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
INCHING UP LATE TONIGHT SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ON FREEZING DRIZZLE
BUT DO INDICATE THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST WHERE OUR
DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OUR 30-32 FOR A FEW HOURS.

HAVE TRENDED MORE CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE DONE SO AS THE CLIPPER BROADENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND KEEPS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
IT COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL WITH 40 EAST TO 45 WEST.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
213 PM CST

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A SHIFT TOWARDS A WARM AND ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS
BUT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE OUR
COLDEST NIGHT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME ANCHORED
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH STRONG EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY THIS WILL MEAN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. AS DEEP TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WHILE ITS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS DO
SHOW INSTABILITY BUILDING THIS FAR NORTH SO A THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY ON TUESDAY FOR OUR
AREA. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CUT OFF ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AROUND
MIDWEEK AND EVENTUALLY MEANDER ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT BUT IT
DOES APPEAR WE WILL GENERALLY STAY IN A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TAFS IS WITH MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VIS IN DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE REGION DURING THE
MID-LATE EVENING HOURS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT MIDNIGHT.
FAIRLY DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO MORE ORGANIZED SNOW...ROUGHLY FROM
KMKE TO KVYS/KPIA AT 0440Z. THUS IT APPEARS MOST SNOW WILL END BY
06Z...PERHAPS SHORTLY AFTER AT GYY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING UPSTREAM INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY. PERSISTENT LIFT
ABOVE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SINKING AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP BY SATURDAY MORNING...
THOUGH GRADUALLY RISING MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY BEFORE SCATTERING LATE.

SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL SHIFT WEST BY MORNING AND THEN
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
213 PM CST

A CLIPPER LIKE SNOW SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND...THEN
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
EVENTUALLY SET UP NEAR BERMUDA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN TO
AROUND 30 KT SUNDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 AND
OCCASIONALLY 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY HELPING SPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
THE LAKE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ON TUESDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1000 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID WEEK ON. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IN SOME AREAS LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

FOR THE UPDATE...ELIMINATED EVEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE BASED ON OUTPUT FROM ALL SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS
RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKING ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ENOUGH TO GO DRY MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR 12Z THOUGH.

A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. CURRENT TIMING HAS ALL AREAS DRY THOUGH
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN AFTERWARD AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. FEEL THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN WEST
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WORK THEIR
WAY INTO THE AREA AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...FEEL THAT GIVEN HOW WELL TEMPERATURES
RESPONDED TO FILTERED SUN TODAY THAT READINGS MONDAY WILL GET CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...SO DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS THE WARMEST MOS. STUCK WITH
A MODEL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

A RAINY LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND CLOSE BY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER...SO A SLOWER SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES...KEPT SMALL POPS IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO PERIODS PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. MODEL INSTABILITY PROGS HINT THAT THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE WEEKEND.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGESTS MILD WEATHER WITH BLEND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S LOOKING GOOD DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 070300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

ONLY CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INTENSIFIES. NEWER RAP DATA HAS COME IN A TOUCH STRONGER WITH WINDS
IN THE 2-4KFT LAYER. WILL MONITOR AND MAY UPDATE TIMING FURTHER FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.

00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS FAVOR CEILINGS PREDOMINANT AROUND
15KFT TONIGHT GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 10-12KFT TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION WILL ENABLE CEILINGS TO LOWER FURTHER ON MONDAY...ALONG
WITH PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING IS HIGHEST AT KLAF AND WILL INSERT
A VCSH THERE FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY GUSTY S/SW WINDS MONDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINEDS AT 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 25-30KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 922 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID WEEK ON. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IN SOME AREAS LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ENOUGH TO GO DRY MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR 12Z THOUGH.

A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. CURRENT TIMING HAS ALL AREAS DRY THOUGH
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN AFTERWARD AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. FEEL THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN WEST
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WORK THEIR
WAY INTO THE AREA AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...FEEL THAT GIVEN HOW WELL TEMPERATURES
RESPONDED TO FILTERED SUN TODAY THAT READINGS MONDAY WILL GET CLOSER
TO THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL BE A CONCERN ON
TUESDAY...SO DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS THE WARMEST MOS. STUCK WITH
A MODEL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

A RAINY LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND CLOSE BY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER...SO A SLOWER SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES...KEPT SMALL POPS IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO PERIODS PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. MODEL INSTABILITY PROGS HINT THAT THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE WEEKEND.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGESTS MILD WEATHER WITH BLEND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S LOOKING GOOD DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 070300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

ONLY CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INTENSIFIES. NEWER RAP DATA HAS COME IN A TOUCH STRONGER WITH WINDS
IN THE 2-4KFT LAYER. WILL MONITOR AND MAY UPDATE TIMING FURTHER FOR
THE 06Z TAFS.

00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS FAVOR CEILINGS PREDOMINANT AROUND
15KFT TONIGHT GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 10-12KFT TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION WILL ENABLE CEILINGS TO LOWER FURTHER ON MONDAY...ALONG
WITH PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING IS HIGHEST AT KLAF AND WILL INSERT
A VCSH THERE FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY GUSTY S/SW WINDS MONDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINEDS AT 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 25-30KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 544 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Please see the end for a fire weather specific discussion.

At 3 PM Sunday, moist southwest flow aloft has overspread the region
while strong southerly winds have brought moisture northward in
earnest with surface dewpoints in the lower 50s in central KS. This
low level moisture sources back to the TX Gulf Coast and into
central TX, where 60 degree dewpoints have also begun to extend
inland. The southwesterly flow aloft has several embedded short wave
impulses moving through. One of these impulses is moving over
northeast KS this afternoon but is unlikely to produce more than
additional cloud cloud cover. Another wave moves overhead late
evening into early morning hours while a stronger short wave will
have a glancing impact as it moves well west of the area late
Monday. Surface dewpoints by Monday afternoon are likely to increase
into the mid 50s across most of the area while a sharp dryline
shifts east and approaches the HWY 81 corridor (or just to the west)
by mid afternoon. Should see quite a bit of cloud cover tonight and
Monday but temperatures will remain warm with lows around 60 and a
high in the low to mid 70s with the warmest temps in central KS.

Regarding thunderstorm potential through the period, the best chance
for storms is as the short wave passes overhead late this evening
into early Monday morning. Localized lift and moistening of the
elevated warm layer below steep lapse rates should be sufficient to
support scattered storm development in eastern KS. These storms
should be quite elevated and not have access to much instability or
effective shear but wouldn`t be totally surprised if small hail were
to develop in any organized storms. Any storms should be fast moving
and not expected to drop much rain at all. The capping inversion is
likely to build back in with strength after this wave passes and
should hold through the day on Monday. There will be a few periods
on Monday during which weak and very elevated instability could
produce a stray shower. Will have to watch the dryline by late in
the day for potential development, but most all guidance holds the
cap strong through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Concerns for severe storm development Monday night continue to
weaken with the cap remaining rather potent for near surface-based
convection. Better chances appear to be for elevated storms as a
weak wave passes through, but instability aloft is weaker. Upper
wave moving a bit more east on its trajectory into the Northern
Plains drags the associated cold front southeast through the area
Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Models are similar in the elevated
mixed layer slowly diminishing in strength as lapse rates aloft
slowly weaken. A window of moderate surface-based CAPE (around 1000
J/kg) develops in the early afternoon along the front with deep-
layer shear near 40 kt, though hodographs are not very impressive
with some weak mid-level winds. Although convergence along the front
is not strong, the Tuesday afternoon hours could present the
greatest though still somewhat limited severe weather threat of this
forecast. The greatest potential currently appears to be in central
portions of the CWA but confidence on the timing of the front and
when instability and forcing will peak is not high. Precip should
generally be on the increase for mainly southeastern areas late
Tuesday as deep isentropic lift develops east of a surface low
moving northeast along the front out of the Southern Plains. This
should slowly wane Wednesday into Wednesday night as the Southern
Plains upper low shifts east and cool high pressure spreads east
into the region behind a northern stream upper trough. The Thursday
and THursday night periods continue to look dry, but at least small
precip potential returns thereafter. Models continue so show
differing solutions of how the southern low will track as the upper
flow becomes more southwesterly. The bulk of precip with this wave
may track to the southeast but chance pops still seem in order.
Temps will moderate back into the lower 60s Wednesday as clouds
slowly clear, but stay in the 60s into the late week as modification
occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Hi-res models continue to show the potential for ISOLD convection
developing this evening near TOP and FOE before the EML advects
in. With this in mind have included a VCTS for a few hours in case
a storm develops overhead. There continues to be agreement in the
models for an MVFR deck to move in with the low level moisture.
Because of this, I see no reason to deviate from the prev forecast
and have only made some adjustments to timing. With the RAP and
GFS showing these low clouds mixing out, I have gone ahead and
brought VFR CIGS back in by noon thinking the NAM is to aggressive
with the low level moisture profile as has been its bias.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 544 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Winds have diminished slightly this afternoon. Additionally higher
dewpoint temps are expected to move in this evening allowing RH
values to recover to around 50 percent by midnight. South winds
will remain gusty overnight and should gust between 30 and 40 MPH
once again for Monday. So fire danger will remain very high for
the next 24 to 36 hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ026-039-040-
054>056-058-059.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1033 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM EAST...MOST THE REGION
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. WE COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES IN
SPOTS...STILL SEEM LIKE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IS REASONABLE GIVEN
QUICKSAND MESONET IT SITTING AT 34 AND JACKSON ASOS IS SITTING AT
46 DEGREES THIS HOUR. UPDATED TEMP CURVE TO MATCH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES NEEDED AT BEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING BY. DID HAVE TO MAKE MORE WHOLESALE ADJUSTMENTS TO
DEWS...AS AIR WAS DRIER BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE BENEFITS BEFALLING THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL CLEARED ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN AND HIGH ONES DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY MIXED OUT AND DROPPED A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL BUILD A MODERATE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES MUCH STRONGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL THEN SERVE TO KEEP ANY ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE...INITIALLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS...AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS DIFFERENCE MAY APPROACH 15 DEGREES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TOUCH OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE A VERY NICE DAY AS MORNING LOWS...PARTICULARLY CHILLY IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS...GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE
60S DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BEING AS EXTREME.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DISTINCTION. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY ZEROED THEM OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW WITH RAIN
CHANCES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING FORWARD
PROGRESS AGAINST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA...THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE DELAYED A BIT
MORE...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE MOVEMENT AND
DEFINING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT BECOME A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHEARS IT OUT...AND THEN MOVES THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE THE FRONT BARELY
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. IN OTHER WORDS...SPRING WILL BE VISITING THE REGION
EARLY STARTING THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DID TWO LINE TAF ONLY TO HIGHLIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY BETTER MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 712 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING BY. DID HAVE TO MAKE MORE WHOLESALE ADJUSTMENTS TO
DEWS...AS AIR WAS DRIER BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE BENEFITS BEFALLING THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL CLEARED ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN AND HIGH ONES DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY MIXED OUT AND DROPPED A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL BUILD A MODERATE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES MUCH STRONGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL THEN SERVE TO KEEP ANY ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE...INITIALLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS...AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS DIFFERENCE MAY APPROACH 15 DEGREES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TOUCH OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE A VERY NICE DAY AS MORNING LOWS...PARTICULARLY CHILLY IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS...GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE
60S DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BEING AS EXTREME.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DISTINCTION. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY ZEROED THEM OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW WITH RAIN
CHANCES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING FORWARD
PROGRESS AGAINST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA...THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE DELAYED A BIT
MORE...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE MOVEMENT AND
DEFINING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT BECOME A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHEARS IT OUT...AND THEN MOVES THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE THE FRONT BARELY
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. IN OTHER WORDS...SPRING WILL BE VISITING THE REGION
EARLY STARTING THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DID TWO LINE TAF ONLY TO HIGHLIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY BETTER MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 630 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE BENEFITS BEFALLING THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL CLEARED ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN AND HIGH ONES DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY MIXED OUT AND DROPPED A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL BUILD A MODERATE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES MUCH STRONGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL THEN SERVE TO KEEP ANY ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE...INITIALLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS...AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS DIFFERENCE MAY APPROACH 15 DEGREES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TOUCH OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE A VERY NICE DAY AS MORNING LOWS...PARTICULARLY CHILLY IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS...GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE
60S DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BEING AS EXTREME.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DISTINCTION. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY ZEROED THEM OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW WITH RAIN
CHANCES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING FORWARD
PROGRESS AGAINST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA...THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE DELAYED A BIT
MORE...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE MOVEMENT AND
DEFINING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT BECOME A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHEARS IT OUT...AND THEN MOVES THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE THE FRONT BARELY
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. IN OTHER WORDS...SPRING WILL BE VISITING THE REGION
EARLY STARTING THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DID TWO LINE TAF ONLY TO HIGHLIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY BETTER MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 302 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS PUSHING A
FAIRLY LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
EARLIER...THIS LOW HELPED TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RELEASING THE AREA FROM CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S. CURRENTLY...READINGS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTH AND THE LOWER 50S SOUTH ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...HAVE ALSO CLIMBED WITH THE UPPER 30S AND
40S MOST COMMON AS THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A COMPACT WAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHARP LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY AN EQUALLY DISTINCT RIDGE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUILDING INTO MONDAY AS IT STARTS TO BE PUMPED UP DUE TO
ITS POSITION DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. LOOK
FOR THE RIDGE TO KEEP ANY MID LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING THE WX QUIET. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
MAINLY JUST NEAR TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WITH STRONG LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12
SOLUTIONS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SFC
WAVE PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR DOES FOLLOW THIS
LOW BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY SNOW MIXING IN BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PCPN DEPARTS. OF A LARGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AROUND AND ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAVE HIT THE FOG RATHER HARD IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
AREAS HAVING SOME DENSE FOG. RIDGES MAY SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...AS
WELL...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON...FOR MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAWN MONDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR
POP...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET VALUES INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE NEARLY ZEROING THEM OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND
DRY...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUBBORNLY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AT FIRST AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY
HAPPEN IS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY STALLS...AND INSTABILITY BECOMES TAPPED OUT...GENERAL
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DOMINATE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEKS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE SPRING ALL WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH NIGHTLY MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERY NIGHT
EXCEPT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...LASTING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT WITH PREVAILING VCSH MENTION THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST PART OF THE TAF ALONG WITH A FEW HOUR TEMPO GROUP TRYING TO
HIT THE BEST TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN...ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUBSIDENCE W/ LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SET UP...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE LOWER CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AFTER 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 220 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS PUSHING A
FAIRLY LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
EARLIER...THIS LOW HELPED TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RELEASING THE AREA FROM CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S. CURRENTLY...READINGS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTH AND THE LOWER 50S SOUTH ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...HAVE ALSO CLIMBED WITH THE UPPER 30S AND
40S MOST COMMON AS THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A COMPACT WAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHARP LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY AN EQUALLY DISTINCT RIDGE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUILDING INTO MONDAY AS IT STARTS TO BE PUMPED UP DUE TO
ITS POSITION DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. LOOK
FOR THE RIDGE TO KEEP ANY MID LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING THE WX QUIET. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
MAINLY JUST NEAR TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WITH STRONG LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12
SOLUTIONS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SFC
WAVE PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR DOES FOLLOW THIS
LOW BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY SNOW MIXING IN BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PCPN DEPARTS. OF A LARGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AROUND AND ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAVE HIT THE FOG RATHER HARD IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
AREAS HAVING SOME DENSE FOG. RIDGES MAY SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...AS
WELL...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON...FOR MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAWN MONDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR
POP...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET VALUES INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE NEARLY ZEROING THEM OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK REMAIN IN THE
OFFING COURTESY OF BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD EASTERN CONUS RIDGING. FURTHER WARMING WILL ENSUE AS FLOW
BACKS SOUTHWEST ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AS LOWS FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SLOW TO
EJECT EASTWARD IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS SURFACE RIDGING
ESTABLISHES A LENGTHY RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE MID TO SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY EARLIER WEEK
RAINFALL...RESULTING FROM AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WELL WEST
OF INTERSTATE 71. PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY LOOK TO BECOME MUCH BETTER FOR MID-LATE WEEK AS UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW AND PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. APPRECIABLE THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK
POSSIBLE AS LONG AS INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE AMID PLENTY OF MID-
HIGH CLOUD COVER. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO DIVE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AID IN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LOW...RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...LASTING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT WITH PREVAILING VCSH MENTION THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST PART OF THE TAF ALONG WITH A FEW HOUR TEMPO GROUP TRYING TO
HIT THE BEST TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN...ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUBSIDENCE W/ LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SET UP...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE LOWER CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AFTER 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 110 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW PROPERLY REBOUNDED SO HAVE MAINLY
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INBOUND
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALSO...DID FINE TUNE THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HERE TO THE EAST...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PCPN
DROPPING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN...AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PLAGUED
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FOG IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITY AND
LIFTING CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS AND PCPN ARE RETARDING
A TEMPERATURE RISE SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH MOST PLACES STILL IN
THE LOW 30S. THE APPROACH OF THE WEAKENING LOW AND ITS FRONT
SHOULD MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES THE RESULT...THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND MORE SUBSTANTIVE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND CROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO SLOW THE TEMP RISE THIS
MORNING AND TO FINE TUNE THE POPS/WX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM12. DID ALSO TWEAK THE DEWPOINTS...CURRENTLY
REPORTING SIMILAR VALUES TO DRY TEMPS AT MOST SITES...PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO
HELPING TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES
AND HWO ALSO ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...PRECIP IS LIKELY STILL NOT HITTING THE
GROUND...WITH ONLY ONE BRIEF OBSERVATION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CINCINNATI AREA UNDER A HIGHER RETURN OVER THE LAST HOUR. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF THIS GIVEN
TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...BUT NOTHING IS
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. OVER THE NEXT HOUR...EXPECT RETURNS TO
INTENSIFY AND PRECIP TO BEGIN HITTING THE GROUND...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIP
CHANGES TO MAINLY RAIN.

MEANWHILE...STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SIGNS OF VIS IMPROVEMENT AT
MANY SITES. ACCORDING TO THE OBS IT SEEMS AS THOUGH MUCH OF THE
FOG IS ELEVATED AT THIS POINT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE RIDGE TOPS. SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY ARE ALSO STILL REPORTING TEMPS AT
OR JUST BELOW 32 DEGREES...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FREEZING
FOG AS WELL IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR. CURRENT SPS
HIGHLIGHTING PATCHY DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE SLICK CONDITIONS FROM
FREEZING FOG/SLICK ROADWAYS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7AM...AS
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING/MIXING OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AFTER THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT HAS LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. GIVEN TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS
AS WELL...THIS ALSO CREATED A SET UP FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING FOG. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 8Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING THE
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE REGION...AND ALLOWING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THIS...SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT A DECENT LLVL INVERSION WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

BY 12Z THIS MORNING...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN QUICKLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD...CLIPPING THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS QUICK DROP
SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS BOTH FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY WEAK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SUPPORT FROM LLVL SRLY WINDS
TO PROMOTE SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA.
LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG OUR FAR NW
CWA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVERSPREADING FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN EXITING TO OUR
EAST OVERNIGHT. BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
FAR EASTERN CWA...CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO
NEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS IT IS LIKELY THAT BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW AT ONSET...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z. OVERALL...NOT
LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF SNOW DOES OCCUR...AND SHOULD BE A
PRETTY QUICK TURNOVER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...SO REST OF PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN.

AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS KY BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE ONCE MORE TONIGHT...AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKING HOLD...EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
RESULT ONCE MORE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME WIDESPREAD
AND/OR DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY...AND NEAR
SOME BODIES OF WATER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
BEST IMPACTS FROM RAIN WILL BE...JUST STUCK WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
ACROSS ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS AMPLIFIED RIDGING...CROSSING DIRECTLY OVER KY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK REMAIN IN THE
OFFING COURTESY OF BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD EASTERN CONUS RIDGING. FURTHER WARMING WILL ENSUE AS FLOW
BACKS SOUTHWEST ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AS LOWS FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SLOW TO
EJECT EASTWARD IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS SURFACE RIDGING
ESTABLISHES A LENGTHY RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE MID TO SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY EARLIER WEEK
RAINFALL...RESULTING FROM AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WELL WEST
OF INTERSTATE 71. PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY LOOK TO BECOME MUCH BETTER FOR MID-LATE WEEK AS UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW AND PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. APPRECIABLE THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK
POSSIBLE AS LONG AS INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE AMID PLENTY OF MID-
HIGH CLOUD COVER. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO DIVE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AID IN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LOW...RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...LASTING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT WITH PREVAILING VCSH MENTION THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST PART OF THE TAF ALONG WITH A FEW HOUR TEMPO GROUP TRYING TO
HIT THE BEST TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN...ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUBSIDENCE W/ LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SET UP...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE LOWER CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AFTER 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 955 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HERE TO THE EAST...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PCPN
DROPPING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN...AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...PLAGUED
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FOG IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITY AND
LIFTING CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS AND PCPN ARE RETARDING
A TEMPERATURE RISE SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH MOST PLACES STILL IN
THE LOW 30S. THE APPROACH OF THE WEAKENING LOW AND ITS FRONT
SHOULD MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES THE RESULT...THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND MORE SUBSTANTIVE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND CROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO SLOW THE TEMP RISE THIS
MORNING AND TO FINE TUNE THE POPS/WX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM12. DID ALSO TWEAK THE DEWPOINTS...CURRENTLY
REPORTING SIMILAR VALUES TO DRY TEMPS AT MOST SITES...PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO
HELPING TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THE GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES
AND HWO ALSO ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...PRECIP IS LIKELY STILL NOT HITTING THE
GROUND...WITH ONLY ONE BRIEF OBSERVATION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CINCINNATI AREA UNDER A HIGHER RETURN OVER THE LAST HOUR. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF THIS GIVEN
TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...BUT NOTHING IS
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. OVER THE NEXT HOUR...EXPECT RETURNS TO
INTENSIFY AND PRECIP TO BEGIN HITTING THE GROUND...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIP
CHANGES TO MAINLY RAIN.

MEANWHILE...STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SIGNS OF VIS IMPROVEMENT AT
MANY SITES. ACCORDING TO THE OBS IT SEEMS AS THOUGH MUCH OF THE
FOG IS ELEVATED AT THIS POINT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE RIDGE TOPS. SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY ARE ALSO STILL REPORTING TEMPS AT
OR JUST BELOW 32 DEGREES...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FREEZING
FOG AS WELL IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR. CURRENT SPS
HIGHLIGHTING PATCHY DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE SLICK CONDITIONS FROM
FREEZING FOG/SLICK ROADWAYS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7AM...AS
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING/MIXING OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AFTER THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT HAS LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. GIVEN TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS
AS WELL...THIS ALSO CREATED A SET UP FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING FOG. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 8Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING THE
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE REGION...AND ALLOWING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THIS...SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT A DECENT LLVL INVERSION WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

BY 12Z THIS MORNING...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN QUICKLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD...CLIPPING THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS QUICK DROP
SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS BOTH FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY WEAK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SUPPORT FROM LLVL SRLY WINDS
TO PROMOTE SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA.
LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG OUR FAR NW
CWA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVERSPREADING FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN EXITING TO OUR
EAST OVERNIGHT. BEST QPF AND POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
FAR EASTERN CWA...CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO
NEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS IT IS LIKELY THAT BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW AT ONSET...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z. OVERALL...NOT
LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF SNOW DOES OCCUR...AND SHOULD BE A
PRETTY QUICK TURNOVER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...SO REST OF PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN.

AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS KY BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE ONCE MORE TONIGHT...AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKING HOLD...EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
RESULT ONCE MORE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME WIDESPREAD
AND/OR DENSE FOG IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY...AND NEAR
SOME BODIES OF WATER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
BEST IMPACTS FROM RAIN WILL BE...JUST STUCK WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION
ACROSS ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS AMPLIFIED RIDGING...CROSSING DIRECTLY OVER KY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK REMAIN IN THE
OFFING COURTESY OF BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD EASTERN CONUS RIDGING. FURTHER WARMING WILL ENSUE AS FLOW
BACKS SOUTHWEST ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AS LOWS FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SLOW TO
EJECT EASTWARD IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS SURFACE RIDGING
ESTABLISHES A LENGTHY RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE MID TO SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY EARLIER WEEK
RAINFALL...RESULTING FROM AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WELL WEST
OF INTERSTATE 71. PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY LOOK TO BECOME MUCH BETTER FOR MID-LATE WEEK AS UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW AND PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. APPRECIABLE THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK
POSSIBLE AS LONG AS INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE AMID PLENTY OF MID-
HIGH CLOUD COVER. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO DIVE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AID IN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LOW...RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS EASTERN KY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH BEST CHANCES AT
KSYM AND KSJS...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. KEPT
WITH VCSH MENTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY /STARTING WITH KSYM AT 13Z/ DUE
TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN
A SPECIFIC TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED AND TO WHAT DEGREE. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN...ANOTHER SUBSIDENCE/LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SET UP...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SW BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WRLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT AFTER 0Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...JMW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 102 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY UNDER A WEAK AREA OF RIDGING IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST BREAKS OR EVEN CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE NEXT 5 HOURS OR SO BEFORE CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND LOWER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING PATCHY BLACK ICE
IS A CONCERN ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MTN PARKWAY WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND MELTING ON FRIDAY LED
TO WET ROADS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY BLACK ICE. THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE HWO. OTHERWISE...AS FOR THE SYSTEM ARRIVING ON SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 9 AM TO 10 AM EST
PER THE 0Z GFS AND RECENT HRRR RUN...OR LATER PER RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE. ANY INITIAL PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX BEFORE WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT TURNS ANY PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS IS LEADING TO SOME DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...AND OR HIGH ELEVATION FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA UNTIL LATE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY AND THE MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. PATCHY FOG SHOULD
ALSO BE COMMONPLACE...BOTH ON THE RIDGES AND IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016

LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME TEMPORARY DRYING AT MID LEVELS.
AT LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SCOURING OUT OF THE CLOUDS IN NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL STAY IN
THE LOWER 30S.

GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...PROVIDING
CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...KEPT A BRIEF CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EARLY ON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEPARTURE OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AROUND THIS TIME A
DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS TROUGH SETTLES DEEP INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE SENDING SPURS OF ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH TIME...THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL SET UP BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ONLY SLOWLY MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALL THESE FEATURES TIGHTEN UP INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RIDGING EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW...FROM OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...PLENTY OF ENERGY WILL RUN NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...
EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVY INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING
WHOSE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN LOW WILL START TO GET PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF ENERGY SPILLING
INTO KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD LOW MOVING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WITH
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER KENTUCKY. DUE TO THE DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST
DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS...THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST AND AS IT DOES SO TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY SOAR REACHING WELL
INTO THE MID 60S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL THEN BE
RATHER STEADY STATE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE RAINS OF THE WEST AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARE EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE VERY
HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL BE SETTING UP FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST ENOUGH THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY...AS WELL. ALSO
THROUGH IT ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
FOR HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE FOR PERHAPS
EXCESSIVE RAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND BEYOND AS THIS AREA OF VERY
MOIST LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EDGES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...FOG
CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS FOR BOTH VIS AND CIG HEIGHTS. EVEN AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...SUBSIDENCE
AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
FOG INTACT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS DAY
BREAKS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN IMPACTING THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY 12Z...REACHING KSYM BY 14Z
AND MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...BUT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...SO
CONTINUED WITH VCSH MENTION AT MOST TAF SITES FOR NOW UNDER
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT OVERNIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER SUBSIDENCE/LLVL MOISTURE SET UP WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SW BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WRLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT AFTER 0Z SUNDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 259 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER SUNDAY AND
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE VA TIDEWATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FLURRIES
WITH THE LEAD DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAVE DISSIPATED...AND BEHIND IT
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. BULK OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

TWO AREAS OF PRECIP TO OUR WEST TO WATCH...EACH ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT MAX ALOFT. ONE AREA IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN KY WHILE
THE OTHER DROPS SE FROM MI. HAVE LARGELY BASED THE POPS FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON THE RAP AND HRRR...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM
OTHER HI-RES MODELS AND THE NAM/GFS. ECMWF IS A NOTABLE DRY OUTLIER
AND IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...THUS WHY POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT AT 60 PCT OR LOWER EXCEPT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP MERGING AND
PROCEEDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN IF IT DOES...QPF WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW FIZZLES AND THE PRIMARY VORT MAX IN THE
TROUGH HEADS TO THE SE STATES. THE TREND WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
WAS TO REDUCE QPF ALONG THE PA BORDER. KIND OF DOUBT COVERAGE IS
COMPLETELY UNIFORM EITHER. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO RA/SN MIX THEN SN GENERALLY WEST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS COLD ALOFT
AS THE EVENT A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SO ALL PUT TOGETHER...SOME PLACES
COULD RECEIVE A SLUSHY COATING (BUT NOT NECESSARILY ALL)...WITH A
WORST CASE BEING UP TO AN INCH. 1-2 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

FAIRLY GOOD TIMING AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT 12Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
TO EXIT BY 9 AM OR SO. HOWEVER CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AS QUICK TO
DEPART...ALTHOUGH SUN SHOULD BREAK THROUGH BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARNESTLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTHERLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WAA COMMENCES.
LONG PERIOD OF UNINTERRUPTED RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO
WARM/MOISTEN SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND LARGE
EAST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPS. RECORDS APPEAR SAFE AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE M/L 70S BY WEDNESDAY...NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY MAY.

CHANGES MAY ARRIVE TO PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY...AS WEAK FRONT
POSSIBLY NUDGES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH QPF OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS MEANINGFUL QPF CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHWEST UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT THEN WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA.

EAST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW...THAT HAD BEEN DISLODGED FROM THE MAIN
FLOW...BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SETS UP AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD...THOUGH SPATIOTEMPORAL SPREAD OF THE KEY FEATURES
DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LARGE...WHICH PREVENTS NOTHING MORE THAN
CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANY IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...JUST CONTINUED CIGS NEAR FL050 AT TIMES. WEAK
DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THINK AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. PRECIP IS A LITTLE MORE IN DOUBT. HAVE
ADVERTISED A PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT GUARANTEED. HAVE THUS LIMITED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL NOTE HERE THAT IFR IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SNOW. ANY THREAT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY
END BY 12Z. HOWEVER CIGS MAY BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF CLOUDS AROUND FL050 THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. SE WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING VRB TONIGHT...THEN NORTHERLY 5-10 KT
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.

VFR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT S/SE FLOW ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF WINDS BUT PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER. NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS FOLLOW A DIURNAL CYCLE BEYOND MONDAY...WITH ELEVATED/LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY/NIGHT. ATTM...IT APPEARS WINDS REMAIN
AOB SCA...THOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS NEAR SCA
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 315 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW INTO UPPER
MI OVER THE LAST 12HRS OR SO IS TRACKING SE THRU WI. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
A WARM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND W TO SW FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS SHOW SNOW DIMINISHING OVER UPPER MI...AND UPSTREAM...
KDLH RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN REMAINING. THERE WERE OBS AND
REPORTS OF SOME -FZDZ EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OVER WRN UPPER MI AND NRN
WI AS THE HEAVIER SNOW DEPARTED. RECENTLY...THERE ARE FEWER OBS
SHOWING UNKNOWN PCPN...SO -FZDZ MAY BE DIMINISHING.

WITH SHORTWAVE CONTINUING SE TODAY...DIMINISHING PCPN WILL END FROM
NW TO SE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON LAKE MI PERSISTS THRU MID TO LATE
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP WEAKLY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO LINGER.
THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL PAINTED OVER THE E THIS MORNING WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. TO THE W...
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF -FZDZ/-SN MAINLY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING NOT THAT FAR
AWAY ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN...LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH. THIS INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE
UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION SHOULD GREATLY SLOW THE CLEARING PROCESS.
KEWEENAW OBVIOUSLY HAS THE BEST CHC OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING
OUT TODAY GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CLEAR SKIES ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE N AND NW THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.

CLOUD FCST INTO TONIGHT REMAINS A BIT TRICKY. IF THE EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MN/WI PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THESE CLOUDS MAY MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ONCE S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS/INCREASES
AFTER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. OTHERWISE...PROVIDED MUCH OF
TODAYS CLOUD COVER DEPARTS BY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. LEANED
FCST TO THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
DUE TO THEIR NORMAL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS
IF SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE FCST PERIOD WL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH PACIFIC AIR/ABOVE NORMAL HGTS DOMINATING THE CONUS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME RA SHOWERS ON MON/TUE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV RIDING
NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS...RA TOTALS SHOULD
BE LIMITED OVERALL. OTRW...MOST OF THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD
WL BE DRY.

SUN NGT/MON...GUSTY SW WINDS SUN EVNG WL DIMINISH THRU THE NGT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES WITH PASSAGE OF ONTARIO SHRTWV/PRES FALL
CENTER TO THE E...SO THE GUSTY WINDS WL SUBSIDE. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA IN THE EVNG RELATED TO
AREA OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 300K SFC /ABOUT
H7/ AND SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ACCOMPANYING H85-
7 WARMING. BUT ANY OF THIS PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH EXIT OF
THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ONSET OF MID LVL DRYING AS UPR RDG
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING MORE MID LVL DRYING/
CAPPING. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS...MANY OF THE MODEL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LGT PCPN THRU THE NGT AND ON MON
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. SUSPECT THIS PCPN IS RELATED TO FCST GRADUAL
INFLUX OF LLVL MSTR...SO WL MAINTAIN FCST OF DRIZZLE/FOG DVLPG OVER
MELTING SN COVER IN THE PRSENCE OF SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING INTO MON
MRNG. EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE 32
ON SUN NGT. ALTHOUGH THE LINGERING LO CLDS ON MON WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY...TEMPS WL STILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS
AS HI AS 50 OVER THE FAR W AS H85 TEMPS REBOUND.

MON NGT/TUE...A SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE WRN PLAINS ON MON IS FCST TO
LIFT NEWD AND INTO MN ON TUE...TENDING TO SHEAR OUT IN THE PROCESS.
THIS TREND...ALONG WITH LINGERING MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER THE HIER
HGTS/DRY SLOTTING TO THE E OF THE SHRTWV TRACK...WL LIMIT OVERALL
POPS AND QPF. BEST CHANCE FOR THE SOMEWHAT HIER POPS WL BE LATE MON
NGT/TUE MRNG SINCE THE SFC LO IS FCST TO PASS TO THE W THRU MN ON
TUE AND THE AIRMASS WL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS
HI AS 8 TO 9C...ANY PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA AS SFC TEMPS RISE
AOA 50 ON TUE AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. THE PERSISTENT
SLY FLOW AND INFLUX OF WARMER/MOISTER LLVL AIR INTO THE CWA WL BRING
MORE FOG AND SOME DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
ACRS THE NW CWA. STILL THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED
TS LATE MON NGT/TUE WITH ARRIVAL OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES AS HI AS 7.5-
8.5C/KM DESPITE CONCERNS THAT MID LVL DRY AIR/CAPPING MIGHT BE TOO
PRONOUNCED TO ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WITH MORE SHEARED OUT SHRTWV. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
THE TREND FM THAT MODEL SHOWING A FASTER COLD FROPA ON TUE WITH THIS
BNDRY REACHING NEWBERRY NEAR 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN CONUS WOULD SUPPORT THE SLOWER MAJORITY...THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE OPS MODEL SCENARIO. SO WL USE A MODEL
BLEND TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUE NGT...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE OF DRYING/
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT WL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/COLD
FROPA ON TUE NGT AS SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AT LEAST
ANOTHER SHRTWV FOLLOWING INTO THE AREA IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT. SO WL
MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS REFLECTED IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WED THRU SAT...A ZONAL FLOW OF MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIR IS FCST TO
DOMINATE THRU MID WEEK...WITH TENDENCY FOR AN UPR RDG TO BLD OVER
CENTRAL NAERMICA TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS FCST TO PASS
THE UPR LKS IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME...LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW ARND
HI PRES PASSING THRU ONTARIO WL HOLD DOWN PCPN CHCS. A LO PRES. MORE
RA COULD ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A LO PRES ADVANCING SLOWLY TO THE N
TOWARD THE LOWER LKS CLOSES IN ON THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS. THE
ONLY HOLDOUT WILL BE INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE END OF LAKE
ENHANCED MAINLY MVFR CLOUD COVER SINKS ACROSS UPPER MI /ENDING LAST
AT IWD AND SAW BY 23Z/. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...STRETCHING FROM S MN/IA WILL BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD OF UPPER
MI FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING
ACROSS LOWER MI THIS EVENING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE EXITING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS S CANADA THIS EVENING TO SLIDE ACROSS S
MANITOBA AND ND BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC
BASED INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES CROSSING SCENTRAL CANADA...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING TO BECOME SW AND INCREASE UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON SUN AFTERNOON. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUP DURING THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT/MON UNDER A WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS MON MORNING TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE...EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS
AGAIN. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR IN THIS FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY
CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL CAUSE SOME FOG. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LO PRES PASSES OVER LAKE SUP ON LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW UP TO 20-25 KTS. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI
PRES RIDGE WILL THEN CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS LATER ON WED AND THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 300 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

ACCUMULATING SNOW COMING TO AN END BY 00Z...AS 700 MB COLD POOL OF
-14 TO -15 C EXITS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN...WITH WARMING MID LEVELS AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT.  UNCERTAINTY WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB BUILDS INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BACKDROP FOR COLD (AROUND
10 DEGREES) MINS IF CLOUDS BREAK. THE RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TO SKEW
THE FORECAST ON CLOUDIER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MINS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 20S/AROUND 20 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...CLEARING TREND WORKING DOWN FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING FAIRLY AGRESSIVE...AND DO WANT TO GIVE
WEIGHT TO THE 12Z EURO WHICH ALLOWS FOR CLEARING IN NORTH HALF OF
CWA...ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. IF CLEARING DOES EXTEND
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...COULD HAVE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING TOMORROW...WARM ADVECTION
REALLY KICKS...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS LATE
IN THE DAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE ABOVE 0
C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH...CONCERNS WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS WITH THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE.

CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...DESPITE SURFACE DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 30S. 12Z
EURO/NAM BOTH INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS RISING JUST ABOVE 10
C ON MONDAY...SUGGESTIVE OF MAXES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE OUR PAST WARMUP`S IN FEBRUARY...WARM ADVECTION MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT THICKER/PERSISTENT...AND WILL TEMPER
THE WARMUP A BIT AND KEEP MAXES IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD YIELD
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...MOISTURE PLUME OF PWAT 1+ INCHES WILL CREEP
EASTWARD AHEAD OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ENSURE MAINLY DRY
AND VERY MILD WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
STALLING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MIDWEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD
FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS DRIER AIR WILL FEED IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT.  WINDS THEN WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH.
WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
LAKE HURON...PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS.  AT THIS TIME...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE...WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS.  A MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1253 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION BELOW ONE INCH.  EXISTING STRATUS WILL HOLD TIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD...EASING INTO MVFR DURING THIS TIME.
CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MUCH LESS CERTAIN BEYOND MIDNIGHT AS THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR DRIER AIR EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO SUPPORT
GREATER CLEARING POTENTIAL.  A MIXED SIGNAL WITHIN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND WILL FAVOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC/CLOUDIER FORECAST UNTIL SHORT TERM TRENDS BECOME MORE
DEFINITIVE.  AN ELEMENT OF FOG A GREATER POSSIBILITY SHOULD A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKY EMERGE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW IN IFR THROUGH 21Z...GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER INTO THE EVENING.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
LESS THAN ONE INCH.  CLOUD TRENDS BECOME AN ISSUE BEYOND MIDNIGHT AS
THE EXISTING STRATUS WORKS AGAINST A DRYING ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS
TIME...IN FAVOR OF MAINTAINING A CEILING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BECOME MORE DEFINITIVE MOVING FORWARD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
  OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 1253 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016


.AVIATION...

ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION BELOW ONE INCH.  EXISTING STRATUS WILL HOLD TIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD...EASING INTO MVFR DURING THIS TIME.
CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MUCH LESS CERTAIN BEYOND MIDNIGHT AS THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR DRIER AIR EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO SUPPORT
GREATER CLEARING POTENTIAL.  A MIXED SIGNAL WITHIN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND WILL FAVOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC/CLOUDIER FORECAST UNTIL SHORT TERM TRENDS BECOME MORE
DEFINITIVE.  AN ELEMENT OF FOG A GREATER POSSIBILITY SHOULD A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKY EMERGE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW IN IFR THROUGH 21Z...GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER INTO THE EVENING.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
LESS THAN ONE INCH.  CLOUD TRENDS BECOME AN ISSUE BEYOND MIDNIGHT AS
THE EXISTING STRATUS WORKS AGAINST A DRYING ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS
TIME...IN FAVOR OF MAINTAINING A CEILING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BECOME MORE DEFINITIVE MOVING FORWARD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
  OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 959 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

UPDATE...

HAVE ALL BUT REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION...AS 700 MB COLD OF
-14 TO -15 C SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
REMINDER OF THE DAY SUPPORTING ALL SNOW...WITH RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORTING MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS/HIGHER RATES...AND HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR 2 INCH TOTALS ACROSS
WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVING CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...3 INCHES
CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 826 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS AND CARRY MORE SNOW (VS FREEZING
DRIZZLE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS)...AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
PROVIDES SUFFICIENT FORCING ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS...AS IR SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING AND SUFFICIENT ICE NUCLEI.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LENAWEE COUNTY AND INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GRIND OUT AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 23 UP TO
ABOUT M-59. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE VIGOROUS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SE MI OVERNIGHT. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SUGGEST SOME LOCALS /PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR/
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING INTERVALS OF FAIRLY GOOD SNOWFALL RATES. THIS
SNOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW OVER WISCONSIN...AIDED BY A LEAD
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW ROTATING INTO SE MI. THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW /OVER CNTRL WISCONSIN AS OF 07Z/ TRACKING INTO
NRN INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY OVER SE MI...WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR FAST MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI. THIS LOSS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LEADING TO AN ABRUPT END TO THE LIGHT SNOW OVER SW LOWER
ATTM. MODEL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS /WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP/ INDICATE THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI BY
12Z. THE RESULTING BRIEF DURATION OF THE SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL KEEP ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS /WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF I-69/.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SUB 850MB/ DRIVEN INTO SE MI DURING
THE MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THIS AND THE AMOUNT OF FZDZ REPORTS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUPPORT ADDING AREAS OF FZDZ TO THE MORNING FORECAST. BY THE TIME
THAT CONDITIONS BECOME OPTIMAL FOR FZDZ...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON. THIS
AND THE POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION OF ANY DRIZZLE WILL SUPPORT HOLDING
OFF ON ANY TYPE OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE BACK INTO SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST SOME FGEN
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE M 59 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL NOT ONLY WARRANT
HIGHER POPS IN THESE LOCALS BUT ALSO SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMS /POSSIBLY A HALF INCH/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SE TONIGHT AMIDST RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT...SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF THIS COOLING OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER...LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST.

LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT A
DRAMATIC WARM UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN THE WELL MIXED SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE /40S SUNDAY...50S MON...60S TUES/. CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES
MID TO LATE WEEK AS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A GOOD DEAL OF FCST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TIMING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WHICH RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING
THIS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO SE MI. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE WED TO THURS TIME FRAME AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH COOLER LAKE MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR INTO THE AREA /WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL
PROVING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS/.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS...AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL THEN PROVIDE A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...WITH SPEEDS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......SF
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1241 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW INTO UPPER
MI OVER THE LAST 12HRS OR SO IS TRACKING SE THRU WI. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
A WARM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND W TO SW FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS SHOW SNOW DIMINISHING OVER UPPER MI...AND UPSTREAM...
KDLH RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN REMAINING. THERE WERE OBS AND
REPORTS OF SOME -FZDZ EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OVER WRN UPPER MI AND NRN
WI AS THE HEAVIER SNOW DEPARTED. RECENTLY...THERE ARE FEWER OBS
SHOWING UNKNOWN PCPN...SO -FZDZ MAY BE DIMINISHING.

WITH SHORTWAVE CONTINUING SE TODAY...DIMINISHING PCPN WILL END FROM
NW TO SE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON LAKE MI PERSISTS THRU MID TO LATE
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP WEAKLY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO LINGER.
THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL PAINTED OVER THE E THIS MORNING WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. TO THE W...
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF -FZDZ/-SN MAINLY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING NOT THAT FAR
AWAY ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN...LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH. THIS INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE
UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION SHOULD GREATLY SLOW THE CLEARING PROCESS.
KEWEENAW OBVIOUSLY HAS THE BEST CHC OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING
OUT TODAY GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CLEAR SKIES ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE N AND NW THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.

CLOUD FCST INTO TONIGHT REMAINS A BIT TRICKY. IF THE EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MN/WI PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THESE CLOUDS MAY MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ONCE S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS/INCREASES
AFTER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. OTHERWISE...PROVIDED MUCH OF
TODAYS CLOUD COVER DEPARTS BY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. LEANED
FCST TO THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
DUE TO THEIR NORMAL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS
IF SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

ADVERTISED EARLY SPRING PREVIEW IS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BEYOND. SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN SURFACE
LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. 85H TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE PLUS 5 TO 8C RANGE.
EVEN WITH THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE 92H WINDS ARE FORECAST UP TO 40
KNOTS SO EXPECT WINDS TO BE PRETTY GUSTY. NAM REMAINS
CONSISTENT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...IN SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY THAT THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL INTRODUCE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S WEST WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN
COOLING WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT
RELATIVELY LIGHT...WILL OCCUR DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY GLOOMY DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S...AND A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND DRIZZLE.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EJECTING WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. WITH DYNAMICAL FORCING ON THE WANE AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL DRY AIR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT.
AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WITH FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CAPPING MAY REMAIN TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 50 FOR MANY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY
LAKE MICHIGAN.

DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST LOOKS DRY DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AFTER
A BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL...MILD
PACIFIC AIR WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING 50 FOR MANY BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS. THE
ONLY HOLDOUT WILL BE INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE END OF LAKE
ENHANCED MAINLY MVFR CLOUD COVER SINKS ACROSS UPPER MI /ENDING LAST
AT IWD AND SAW BY 23Z/. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...STRETCHING FROM S MN/IA WILL BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD OF UPPER
MI FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING
ACROSS LOWER MI THIS EVENING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE EXITING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS S CANADA THIS EVENING TO SLIDE ACROSS S
MANITOBA AND ND BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC
BASED INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT TO BE THE RULE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVING IN THE AFTN. PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTENT TONIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE E COAST AND A LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
SCNTRL CANADA. S TO SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO AS HIGH AS 30KT LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
COULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
SUN NIGHT/MON UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS MON MORNING TO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE AND
QUEBEC WED...WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 15-25KT AT TIMES TUE/WED.
SOME FOG MAY FORM OVER THE CHILLY WATERS MON NIGHT/TUE AS MOISTER
AIR MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 959 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...

HAVE ALL BUT REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION...AS 700 MB COLD OF
-14 TO -15 C SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
REMINDER OF THE DAY SUPPORTING ALL SNOW...WITH RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORTING MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS/HIGHER RATES...AND HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR 2 INCH TOTALS ACROSS
WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVING CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...3 INCHES
CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 826 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS AND CARRY MORE SNOW (VS FREEZING
DRIZZLE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS)...AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
PROVIDES SUFFICIENT FORCING ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS...AS IR SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING AND SUFFICIENT ICE NUCLEI.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LENAWEE COUNTY AND INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GRIND OUT AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 23 UP TO
ABOUT M-59. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE VIGOROUS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 505 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW WILL EXIT EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 12Z. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY THEN SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS...FOG
AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM OVER
WISCONSIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRACKS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS ARRIVES...WHICH WILL ALSO MAKE THE THREAT FOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME VERY LOW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A
SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS MAINLY FROM PTK
SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER 0.5 INCHES. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IFR HOWEVER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. WILL FAVOR FOG FROM FNT SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM...AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS STRATUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AT MBS OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...IFR CEILINGS...BR...AND -FZDZ OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN MICHIGAN SHOULD MOVE WEST TOWARDS DTW
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LAST INTO AFTERNOON UNTIL
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR FOG FILLING IN
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW
  OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN 12-
  17Z. HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SE MI OVERNIGHT. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SUGGEST SOME LOCALS /PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR/
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING INTERVALS OF FAIRLY GOOD SNOWFALL RATES. THIS
SNOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW OVER WISCONSIN...AIDED BY A LEAD
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW ROTATING INTO SE MI. THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW /OVER CNTRL WISCONSIN AS OF 07Z/ TRACKING INTO
NRN INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY OVER SE MI...WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR FAST MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI. THIS LOSS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LEADING TO AN ABRUPT END TO THE LIGHT SNOW OVER SW LOWER
ATTM. MODEL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS /WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP/ INDICATE THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI BY
12Z. THE RESULTING BRIEF DURATION OF THE SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL KEEP ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS /WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF I-69/.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SUB 850MB/ DRIVEN INTO SE MI DURING
THE MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THIS AND THE AMOUNT OF FZDZ REPORTS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUPPORT ADDING AREAS OF FZDZ TO THE MORNING FORECAST. BY THE TIME
THAT CONDITIONS BECOME OPTIMAL FOR FZDZ...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON. THIS
AND THE POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION OF ANY DRIZZLE WILL SUPPORT HOLDING
OFF ON ANY TYPE OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE BACK INTO SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST SOME FGEN
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE M 59 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL NOT ONLY WARRANT
HIGHER POPS IN THESE LOCALS BUT ALSO SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMS /POSSIBLY A HALF INCH/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SE TONIGHT AMIDST RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT...SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF THIS COOLING OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER...LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST.

LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT A
DRAMATIC WARM UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN THE WELL MIXED SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE /40S SUNDAY...50S MON...60S TUES/. CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES
MID TO LATE WEEK AS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A GOOD DEAL OF FCST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TIMING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WHICH RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING
THIS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO SE MI. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE WED TO THURS TIME FRAME AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH COOLER LAKE MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR INTO THE AREA /WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL
PROVING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS/.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS...AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL THEN PROVIDE A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...WITH SPEEDS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 826 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS AND CARRY MORE SNOW (VS FREEZING
DRIZZLE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS)...AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
PROVIDES SUFFICIENT FORCING ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS...AS IR SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING AND SUFFICIENT ICE NUCLEI.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LENAWEE COUNTY AND INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GRIND OUT AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 23 UP TO
ABOUT M-59. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE VIGOROUS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 505 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW WILL EXIT EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 12Z. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY THEN SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS...FOG
AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM OVER
WISCONSIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRACKS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS ARRIVES...WHICH WILL ALSO MAKE THE THREAT FOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME VERY LOW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A
SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS MAINLY FROM PTK
SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER 0.5 INCHES. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IFR HOWEVER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. WILL FAVOR FOG FROM FNT SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM...AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS STRATUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AT MBS OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...IFR CEILINGS...BR...AND -FZDZ OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN MICHIGAN SHOULD MOVE WEST TOWARDS DTW
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LAST INTO AFTERNOON UNTIL
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR FOG FILLING IN
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW
  OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN 12-
  17Z. HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SE MI OVERNIGHT. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SUGGEST SOME LOCALS /PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR/
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING INTERVALS OF FAIRLY GOOD SNOWFALL RATES. THIS
SNOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW OVER WISCONSIN...AIDED BY A LEAD
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW ROTATING INTO SE MI. THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW /OVER CNTRL WISCONSIN AS OF 07Z/ TRACKING INTO
NRN INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY OVER SE MI...WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR FAST MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI. THIS LOSS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LEADING TO AN ABRUPT END TO THE LIGHT SNOW OVER SW LOWER
ATTM. MODEL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS /WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP/ INDICATE THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI BY
12Z. THE RESULTING BRIEF DURATION OF THE SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL KEEP ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS /WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF I-69/.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SUB 850MB/ DRIVEN INTO SE MI DURING
THE MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THIS AND THE AMOUNT OF FZDZ REPORTS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUPPORT ADDING AREAS OF FZDZ TO THE MORNING FORECAST. BY THE TIME
THAT CONDITIONS BECOME OPTIMAL FOR FZDZ...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON. THIS
AND THE POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION OF ANY DRIZZLE WILL SUPPORT HOLDING
OFF ON ANY TYPE OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE BACK INTO SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST SOME FGEN
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE M 59 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL NOT ONLY WARRANT
HIGHER POPS IN THESE LOCALS BUT ALSO SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMS /POSSIBLY A HALF INCH/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SE TONIGHT AMIDST RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT...SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF THIS COOLING OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER...LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST.

LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT A
DRAMATIC WARM UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN THE WELL MIXED SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE /40S SUNDAY...50S MON...60S TUES/. CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES
MID TO LATE WEEK AS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A GOOD DEAL OF FCST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TIMING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WHICH RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING
THIS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO SE MI. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE WED TO THURS TIME FRAME AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH COOLER LAKE MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR INTO THE AREA /WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL
PROVING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS/.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS...AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL THEN PROVIDE A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...WITH SPEEDS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 651 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW INTO UPPER
MI OVER THE LAST 12HRS OR SO IS TRACKING SE THRU WI. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
A WARM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND W TO SW FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS SHOW SNOW DIMINISHING OVER UPPER MI...AND UPSTREAM...
KDLH RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN REMAINING. THERE WERE OBS AND
REPORTS OF SOME -FZDZ EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OVER WRN UPPER MI AND NRN
WI AS THE HEAVIER SNOW DEPARTED. RECENTLY...THERE ARE FEWER OBS
SHOWING UNKNOWN PCPN...SO -FZDZ MAY BE DIMINISHING.

WITH SHORTWAVE CONTINUING SE TODAY...DIMINISHING PCPN WILL END FROM
NW TO SE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON LAKE MI PERSISTS THRU MID TO LATE
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP WEAKLY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO LINGER.
THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL PAINTED OVER THE E THIS MORNING WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. TO THE W...
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF -FZDZ/-SN MAINLY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING NOT THAT FAR
AWAY ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN...LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH. THIS INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE
UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION SHOULD GREATLY SLOW THE CLEARING PROCESS.
KEWEENAW OBVIOUSLY HAS THE BEST CHC OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING
OUT TODAY GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CLEAR SKIES ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE N AND NW THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.

CLOUD FCST INTO TONIGHT REMAINS A BIT TRICKY. IF THE EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MN/WI PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THESE CLOUDS MAY MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ONCE S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS/INCREASES
AFTER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. OTHERWISE...PROVIDED MUCH OF
TODAYS CLOUD COVER DEPARTS BY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. LEANED
FCST TO THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
DUE TO THEIR NORMAL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS
IF SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

ADVERTISED EARLY SPRING PREVIEW IS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BEYOND. SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN SURFACE
LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. 85H TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE PLUS 5 TO 8C RANGE.
EVEN WITH THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE 92H WINDS ARE FORECAST UP TO 40
KNOTS SO EXPECT WINDS TO BE PRETTY GUSTY. NAM REMAINS
CONSISTENT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...IN SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY THAT THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL INTRODUCE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S WEST WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN
COOLING WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT
RELATIVELY LIGHT...WILL OCCUR DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY GLOOMY DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S...AND A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND DRIZZLE.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EJECTING WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. WITH DYNAMICAL FORCING ON THE WANE AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL DRY AIR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT.
AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WITH FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CAPPING MAY REMAIN TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 50 FOR MANY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY
LAKE MICHIGAN.

DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST LOOKS DRY DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AFTER
A BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL...MILD
PACIFIC AIR WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING 50 FOR MANY BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING TO THE SE AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING
INTO UPPER MI FROM THE N AND NW...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY.
AT KIWD...INITIAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING...THEN VFR BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING IF NOT SOONER. CIGS
HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO VFR AT KCMX AS DRIER AIR HAS SLIPPED INTO THE
KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. AT KSAW...MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST UNTIL LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME PERIODS OF IFR THIS
MORNING UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND ALSO FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
SOONER THIS AFTN. AFTER HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE SFC BASED INVERSION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT KIWD LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT TO BE THE RULE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVING IN THE AFTN. PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTENT TONIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE E COAST AND A LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
SCNTRL CANADA. S TO SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO AS HIGH AS 30KT LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
COULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
SUN NIGHT/MON UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS MON MORNING TO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE AND
QUEBEC WED...WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 15-25KT AT TIMES TUE/WED.
SOME FOG MAY FORM OVER THE CHILLY WATERS MON NIGHT/TUE AS MOISTER
AIR MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 505 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016


.AVIATION...

INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW WILL EXIT EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 12Z. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY THEN SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS...FOG
AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM OVER
WISCONSIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRACKS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS ARRIVES...WHICH WILL ALSO MAKE THE THREAT FOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME VERY LOW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A
SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS MAINLY FROM PTK
SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER 0.5 INCHES. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IFR HOWEVER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. WILL FAVOR FOG FROM FNT SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM...AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS STRATUS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AT MBS OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...IFR CEILINGS...BR...AND -FZDZ OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN MICHIGAN SHOULD MOVE WEST TOWARDS DTW
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LAST INTO AFTERNOON UNTIL
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR FOG FILLING IN
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW
  OVERNIGHT.

* MEDIUM FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN 12-
  17Z. HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SE MI OVERNIGHT. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SUGGEST SOME LOCALS /PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR/
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING INTERVALS OF FAIRLY GOOD SNOWFALL RATES. THIS
SNOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW OVER WISCONSIN...AIDED BY A LEAD
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW ROTATING INTO SE MI. THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW /OVER CNTRL WISCONSIN AS OF 07Z/ TRACKING INTO
NRN INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY OVER SE MI...WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR FAST MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI. THIS LOSS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LEADING TO AN ABRUPT END TO THE LIGHT SNOW OVER SW LOWER
ATTM. MODEL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS /WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP/ INDICATE THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI BY
12Z. THE RESULTING BRIEF DURATION OF THE SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL KEEP ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS /WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF I-69/.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SUB 850MB/ DRIVEN INTO SE MI DURING
THE MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THIS AND THE AMOUNT OF FZDZ REPORTS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUPPORT ADDING AREAS OF FZDZ TO THE MORNING FORECAST. BY THE TIME
THAT CONDITIONS BECOME OPTIMAL FOR FZDZ...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON. THIS
AND THE POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION OF ANY DRIZZLE WILL SUPPORT HOLDING
OFF ON ANY TYPE OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE BACK INTO SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST SOME FGEN
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE M 59 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL NOT ONLY WARRANT
HIGHER POPS IN THESE LOCALS BUT ALSO SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMS /POSSIBLY A HALF INCH/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SE TONIGHT AMIDST RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT...SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF THIS COOLING OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER...LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST.

LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT A
DRAMATIC WARM UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN THE WELL MIXED SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE /40S SUNDAY...50S MON...60S TUES/. CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES
MID TO LATE WEEK AS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A GOOD DEAL OF FCST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TIMING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WHICH RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING
THIS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO SE MI. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE WED TO THURS TIME FRAME AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH COOLER LAKE MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR INTO THE AREA /WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL
PROVING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS/.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS...AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL THEN PROVIDE A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...WITH SPEEDS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 447 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW INTO UPPER
MI OVER THE LAST 12HRS OR SO IS TRACKING SE THRU WI. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
A WARM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND W TO SW FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HRS SHOW SNOW DIMINISHING OVER UPPER MI...AND UPSTREAM...
KDLH RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN REMAINING. THERE WERE OBS AND
REPORTS OF SOME -FZDZ EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OVER WRN UPPER MI AND NRN
WI AS THE HEAVIER SNOW DEPARTED. RECENTLY...THERE ARE FEWER OBS
SHOWING UNKNOWN PCPN...SO -FZDZ MAY BE DIMINISHING.

WITH SHORTWAVE CONTINUING SE TODAY...DIMINISHING PCPN WILL END FROM
NW TO SE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON LAKE MI PERSISTS THRU MID TO LATE
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP WEAKLY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO LINGER.
THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL PAINTED OVER THE E THIS MORNING WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. TO THE W...
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF -FZDZ/-SN MAINLY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING NOT THAT FAR
AWAY ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN...LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH. THIS INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE
UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION SHOULD GREATLY SLOW THE CLEARING PROCESS.
KEWEENAW OBVIOUSLY HAS THE BEST CHC OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING
OUT TODAY GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CLEAR SKIES ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE N AND NW THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.

CLOUD FCST INTO TONIGHT REMAINS A BIT TRICKY. IF THE EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MN/WI PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THESE CLOUDS MAY MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ONCE S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS/INCREASES
AFTER THE HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. OTHERWISE...PROVIDED MUCH OF
TODAYS CLOUD COVER DEPARTS BY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. LEANED
FCST TO THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
DUE TO THEIR NORMAL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS
IF SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

ADVERTISED EARLY SPRING PREVIEW IS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BEYOND. SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN SURFACE
LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. 85H TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE PLUS 5 TO 8C RANGE.
EVEN WITH THE STABLE THERMAL PROFILE 92H WINDS ARE FORECAST UP TO 40
KNOTS SO EXPECT WINDS TO BE PRETTY GUSTY. NAM REMAINS
CONSISTENT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...IN SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY THAT THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL INTRODUCE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S WEST WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN
COOLING WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT
RELATIVELY LIGHT...WILL OCCUR DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY GLOOMY DURING THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION...DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S...AND A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND DRIZZLE.
SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE EJECTING WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. WITH DYNAMICAL FORCING ON THE WANE AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL DRY AIR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT.
AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WITH FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CAPPING MAY REMAIN TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 50 FOR MANY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY
LAKE MICHIGAN.

DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST LOOKS DRY DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AFTER
A BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL...MILD
PACIFIC AIR WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING 50 FOR MANY BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016

EXPECT IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND KSAW OVERNIGHT AS
LIGHT SNOW CHANGES TO MIX OF FLURRIES/FZDZ AND CIGS CONTINUE TO
LOWER AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOW-LEVELS. CONDITIONS AT
KCMX COULD REMAIN PREVAILING MFVR WITH ONLY IFR AT TIMES AS NE FLOW
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ALSO KCMX WILL BE
FARTHER FROM DEEP MOISTURE OF SYSTEM PASSING TO SOUTH. ONCE
THE SYSTEM SLIDES OUT ON SAT...EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR DECK TO STAY IN
PLACE INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH LINGERING FLURRIES
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KIWD AND KCMX AND TOWARD
EVENING AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT TO BE THE RULE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVING IN THE AFTN. PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTENT TONIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE E COAST AND A LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
SCNTRL CANADA. S TO SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO AS HIGH AS 30KT LATE
TONIGHT AND SUN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
COULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
SUN NIGHT/MON UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS MON MORNING TO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE AND
QUEBEC WED...WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 15-25KT AT TIMES TUE/WED.
SOME FOG MAY FORM OVER THE CHILLY WATERS MON NIGHT/TUE AS MOISTER
AIR MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 309 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SE MI OVERNIGHT. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SUGGEST SOME LOCALS /PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR/
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING INTERVALS OF FAIRLY GOOD SNOWFALL RATES. THIS
SNOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW OVER WISCONSIN...AIDED BY A LEAD
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW ROTATING INTO SE MI. THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW /OVER CNTRL WISCONSIN AS OF 07Z/ TRACKING INTO
NRN INDIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY OVER SE MI...WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR FAST MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI. THIS LOSS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LEADING TO AN ABRUPT END TO THE LIGHT SNOW OVER SW LOWER
ATTM. MODEL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS /WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP/ INDICATE THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD SE MI BY
12Z. THE RESULTING BRIEF DURATION OF THE SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL KEEP ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS /WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF I-69/.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SUB 850MB/ DRIVEN INTO SE MI DURING
THE MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THIS AND THE AMOUNT OF FZDZ REPORTS ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUPPORT ADDING AREAS OF FZDZ TO THE MORNING FORECAST. BY THE TIME
THAT CONDITIONS BECOME OPTIMAL FOR FZDZ...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON. THIS
AND THE POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION OF ANY DRIZZLE WILL SUPPORT HOLDING
OFF ON ANY TYPE OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE BACK INTO SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST SOME FGEN
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE M 59 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL NOT ONLY WARRANT
HIGHER POPS IN THESE LOCALS BUT ALSO SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMS /POSSIBLY A HALF INCH/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SE TONIGHT AMIDST RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT...SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF THIS COOLING OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER...LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST.

LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE ERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT A
DRAMATIC WARM UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN THE WELL MIXED SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT TEMPS ON THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE /40S SUNDAY...50S MON...60S TUES/. CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES
MID TO LATE WEEK AS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A GOOD DEAL OF FCST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TIMING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WHICH RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING
THIS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO SE MI. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE WED TO THURS TIME FRAME AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH COOLER LAKE MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR INTO THE AREA /WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL
PROVING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS/.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS...AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL THEN PROVIDE A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...WITH SPEEDS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016

LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH WILL
HELP PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN
SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THIS COULD ALSO TURN OUT TO BE JUST FOG WITH
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD OFF ON FZDZ MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. A RESURGENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR INTENSITY IS THEN
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF FNT THROUGH THE DTW
AREA...AS THE LOW TRACKS NEAR TOLEDO. ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH...
LOCALLY 2 WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED...REMAINS
ON TARGET BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... A SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND FOR MVFR DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
MAINLY DUE TO STRATUS RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM OHIO...BUT ALSO WITH
A FASTER ONSET OF SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON DURING THE MORNING
COULD ALSO BE MIXED WITH FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO REFINE THE POTENTIAL. AFTERNOON SNOW
SHOWERS WILL HAVE GREATER INTENSITY WITH ABOUT 1 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT. HIGH SATURDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH AFTERNOON.
  LOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 850 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

.UPDATE...

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF IS WORKING SLOWLY WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
EAST OF BILLINGS IN THE PAST HOUR. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ARE STILL IN THE 60S...FALLING TO THE LOWER 40S OVER WESTERN
FOOTHILLS ON THE OTHER SIDE. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO DRY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE CURRENT RH AND RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED
BOTH POPS AND RH VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. STILL...ANY
RAINFALL OR SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE JUST A
FEW SPRINKLES. LOOK FOR HIGH END PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA DUE TO THAT NEGATIVE TILT SO AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA MAY NOT SEE THE FRONT OR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UNTIL VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON
TRACK FOR 30S AND LOWER 40S BY SUNRISE MONDAY. IF CLOUDS BREAK UP
A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THERE
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR AURORA VIEWING TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA MAY GET A GLIMPSE BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN THERE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

SHORT TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST WORKING INTO PARK COUNTY.
THE 19Z HRRR HAS THE FRONT REACHING BILLINGS AROUND 10 PM AND IT
IS NOT DEVELOPING MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT EITHER. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IS GOING SOUTH AS THE WAVE IS SPLITTING.
THIS IS LEAVING SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING.
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE
DEPARTS THE ONLY REMAINING CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM IS
IN THE WESTERN ZONES AS UNSETTLED ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANCE OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DISORGANIZED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE
PRE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEAK WAVES WILL PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...
PRIMARILY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...
E OF KBIL...OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LLWS OVER KMLS OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
ON MON. GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE E AND S OF KBIL AS
WELL. EXPECT AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS
AND NE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/055 031/053 031/056 038/067 043/065 039/062 036/060
    51/B    11/B    22/W    00/N    01/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 032/050 028/047 029/052 038/063 042/063 038/059 034/055
    81/B    12/W    22/W    21/N    22/W    23/W    22/W
HDN 042/056 029/056 029/060 032/070 038/067 035/065 030/062
    62/W    11/B    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    21/B
MLS 041/056 030/054 030/058 032/069 037/066 036/062 032/059
    53/W    11/U    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 040/054 030/053 028/058 030/069 037/069 038/066 032/060
    43/W    11/B    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    21/U
BHK 039/053 029/049 028/057 029/068 034/067 034/061 030/056
    23/W    11/B    11/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/U
SHR 038/050 028/051 026/055 029/068 035/068 035/066 031/059
    53/W    11/B    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 644 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THAN
MODELS INDICATE...BUT SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.  SREF AND HRRR RUNS HINT AT SOME FOG IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANY SATURATION IS VERY SHALLOW AND NOT WIDESPREAD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 32-35...WITH SOME SPOTS
AROUND 30 POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE DIGS
THROUGH THE WESTERN US AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REPOSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUIDANCE LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN FORECAST H10-H85 THICKNESSES OF 1325-1330M
MONDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.
HIGHS 62-67.

MILDER LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE
POTENTIAL STILL FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING OVER HEAD...
40-43

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ENCAMPS ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. VERY WARM WEEK AHEAD AS
THICKNESS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1370S AND POSSIBLY 1380S LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH
THE 60S FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BREAK DOWN WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND INFLUENCE THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MOVES HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF FOR ANOTHER FULL DAY...NOT BRINING IN
RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. IF THE
ECMWF WORKS OUT...THEN SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE 70S
BUT IF THE GFS WORKS OUT IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THE 70 MARK. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR DETAILS TO EMERGE BUT AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY
TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREAVIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT ~10 KT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING
TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GUSTING TO 15-20 KT AT WESTERN
TERMINALS (INT/GSO) WHERE THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF PRE-DAWN FOG OR STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1154 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL ONLY HAVE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH MOST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUGGEST DEWPOINTS
COULD STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...SO
ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. THE STRATUS HAS FINALLY EXITED THE
EAST...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE WARRANTED SO FAR THIS
MORNING. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING FROM JAMESTOWN
EASTWARD WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW THE CLOUDS EXITING...WITH
ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE CYCLE...BUT WE
DID DELAY THE EXIT OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/ IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY A BIT UNTIL MID MORNING BASED ON SATELLITE AND HRRR
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE 12 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING REVEALED PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING SINCE LAST EVENING...SUPPORTING
THE GOING WARM FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

WARMER...BREEZY...AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A MINOR COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO EXIT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST AND
GRADUALLY FLATTEN/BECOME BROADER THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE RIDGE. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS BEST
DEFINED AT 700MB AND CURRENTLY IS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS WILL STEADILY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 00Z SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS THERE IS NO
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAINLY SERVE TO
FLATTEN THE OVERALL HEIGHT FIELD/RIDGE AXIS AS IT PROPAGATES
THROUGH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INDUCING A SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN MOVE EAST
AND GRAZE NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT AND WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FOR TODAY...THE CANOPY OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE HOVERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN THE WARMEST/DRIEST AIR TO RESIDE
HERE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S CENTRAL TO 40S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UTILIZED A 50/50 COMBINATION
BLEND OF THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL 2M HOURLY RH FIELD AND OFFICIAL
GRIDDED FORECAST TO YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE SOUTHWEST. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW AND RELATED AIRMASS FROM FRIDAY HAVING ADVECTED IN FROM
WYOMING. THE HRRR RH FIELD VERIFIED WELL IN NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL
AS UPSTREAM IN THE LAST 24HR. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEAKEST IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWEST.
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY (15-25MPH)
FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY...DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY FALL GIVEN 850-MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE 97.5 TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE...DRY SOILS...AND DORMANT VEGETATION...ALL OF WHICH
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT HEATING. WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE 60S F IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW 70 F READINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. MIXING IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
MORE SHALLOW THAN ON SATURDAY BASED ON 00 UTC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
THAT RAISES A BIT OF CONCERN FOR WARMING...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
THAT WILL JUST ENSURE WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNDAY IS
APT TO BE A TRULY STELLAR EARLY MARCH DAY.

THEREAFTER...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP ITS CORE WELL SOUTH IN TX AND MEXICO. WE DO
HAVE A LOW-GRADE SHOWER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PROGRESSIVE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
THEN OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND
THAT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST RIDGING REBUILDING AGAIN BY LATE WEEK....WITH THE 00 UTC
NAEFS EVEN CALLING FOR 850-MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BY FRIDAY. THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL IN A LONG-LEAD
ENSEMBLE FORECAST...SUGGESTING HIGHS COULD ONCE AGAIN END UP WELL
INTO THE 60S F /WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST/ BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED...BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

DESPITE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA TO BE MET.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...JUST AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACH THEIR
MINIMUM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT PLAN TO
ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CK
FIRE WEATHER...CK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 933 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE WARRANTED SO FAR THIS
MORNING. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING FROM JAMESTOWN
EASTWARD WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW THE CLOUDS EXITING...WITH
ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE CYCLE...BUT WE
DID DELAY THE EXIT OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/ IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY A BIT UNTIL MID MORNING BASED ON SATELLITE AND HRRR
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE 12 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING REVEALED PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING SINCE LAST EVENING...SUPPORTING
THE GOING WARM FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

WARMER...BREEZY...AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A MINOR COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO EXIT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST AND
GRADUALLY FLATTEN/BECOME BROADER THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE RIDGE. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS BEST
DEFINED AT 700MB AND CURRENTLY IS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS WILL STEADILY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 00Z SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS THERE IS NO
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAINLY SERVE TO
FLATTEN THE OVERALL HEIGHT FIELD/RIDGE AXIS AS IT PROPAGATES
THROUGH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INDUCING A SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN MOVE EAST
AND GRAZE NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT AND WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FOR TODAY...THE CANOPY OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE HOVERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN THE WARMEST/DRIEST AIR TO RESIDE
HERE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S CENTRAL TO 40S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UTILIZED A 50/50 COMBINATION
BLEND OF THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL 2M HOURLY RH FIELD AND OFFICIAL
GRIDDED FORECAST TO YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE SOUTHWEST. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW AND RELATED AIRMASS FROM FRIDAY HAVING ADVECTED IN FROM
WYOMING. THE HRRR RH FIELD VERIFIED WELL IN NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL
AS UPSTREAM IN THE LAST 24HR. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEAKEST IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWEST.
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY (15-25MPH)
FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY...DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY FALL GIVEN 850-MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE 97.5 TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE...DRY SOILS...AND DORMANT VEGETATION...ALL OF WHICH
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT HEATING. WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE 60S F IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW 70 F READINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. MIXING IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
MORE SHALLOW THAN ON SATURDAY BASED ON 00 UTC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
THAT RAISES A BIT OF CONCERN FOR WARMING...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
THAT WILL JUST ENSURE WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNDAY IS
APT TO BE A TRULY STELLAR EARLY MARCH DAY.

THEREAFTER...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP ITS CORE WELL SOUTH IN TX AND MEXICO. WE DO
HAVE A LOW-GRADE SHOWER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PROGRESSIVE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
THEN OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND
THAT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST RIDGING REBUILDING AGAIN BY LATE WEEK....WITH THE 00 UTC
NAEFS EVEN CALLING FOR 850-MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BY FRIDAY. THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL IN A LONG-LEAD
ENSEMBLE FORECAST...SUGGESTING HIGHS COULD ONCE AGAIN END UP WELL
INTO THE 60S F /WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST/ BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

ALL TERMINALS IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
KJMS...WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL 17Z SATURDAY...THEN VFR.
BREEZY SSE/S WINDS BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT AT KBIS/KJMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

DESPITE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST ND TODAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA TO BE MET. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH...JUST AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACH THEIR MINIMUM AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 646 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE CYCLE...BUT WE
DID DELAY THE EXIT OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/ IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY A BIT UNTIL MID MORNING BASED ON SATELLITE AND HRRR
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE 12 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING REVEALED PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING SINCE LAST EVENING...SUPPORTING
THE GOING WARM FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

WARMER...BREEZY...AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A MINOR COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO EXIT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST AND
GRADUALLY FLATTEN/BECOME BROADER THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE RIDGE. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS BEST
DEFINED AT 700MB AND CURRENTLY IS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS WILL STEADILY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 00Z SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS THERE IS NO
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAINLY SERVE TO
FLATTEN THE OVERALL HEIGHT FIELD/RIDGE AXIS AS IT PROPAGATES
THROUGH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INDUCING A SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN MOVE EAST
AND GRAZE NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT AND WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FOR TODAY...THE CANOPY OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE HOVERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN THE WARMEST/DRIEST AIR TO RESIDE
HERE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S CENTRAL TO 40S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UTILIZED A 50/50 COMBINATION
BLEND OF THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL 2M HOURLY RH FIELD AND OFFICIAL
GRIDDED FORECAST TO YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE SOUTHWEST. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW AND RELATED AIRMASS FROM FRIDAY HAVING ADVECTED IN FROM
WYOMING. THE HRRR RH FIELD VERIFIED WELL IN NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL
AS UPSTREAM IN THE LAST 24HR. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEAKEST IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWEST.
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY (15-25MPH)
FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY...DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY FALL GIVEN 850-MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE 97.5 TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE...DRY SOILS...AND DORMANT VEGETATION...ALL OF WHICH
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT HEATING. WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE 60S F IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW 70 F READINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. MIXING IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
MORE SHALLOW THAN ON SATURDAY BASED ON 00 UTC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
THAT RAISES A BIT OF CONCERN FOR WARMING...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
THAT WILL JUST ENSURE WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNDAY IS
APT TO BE A TRULY STELLAR EARLY MARCH DAY.

THEREAFTER...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP ITS CORE WELL SOUTH IN TX AND MEXICO. WE DO
HAVE A LOW-GRADE SHOWER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PROGRESSIVE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
THEN OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND
THAT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST RIDGING REBUILDING AGAIN BY LATE WEEK....WITH THE 00 UTC
NAEFS EVEN CALLING FOR 850-MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BY FRIDAY. THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL IN A LONG-LEAD
ENSEMBLE FORECAST...SUGGESTING HIGHS COULD ONCE AGAIN END UP WELL
INTO THE 60S F /WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST/ BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

ALL TERMINALS IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
KJMS...WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL 16Z SATURDAY...THEN VFR.
BREEZY SSE/S WINDS BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT AT KBIS/KJMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

DESPITE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST ND TODAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA TO BE MET. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH...JUST AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACH THEIR MINIMUM AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/CJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

WARMER...BREEZY...AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A MINOR COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO EXIT BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST AND
GRADUALLY FLATTEN/BECOME BROADER THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE RIDGE. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS BEST
DEFINED AT 700MB AND CURRENTLY IS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. THIS WILL STEADILY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 00Z SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS THERE IS NO
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAINLY SERVE TO
FLATTEN THE OVERALL HEIGHT FIELD/RIDGE AXIS AS IT PROPAGATES
THROUGH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INDUCING A SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN MOVE EAST
AND GRAZE NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT AND WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FOR TODAY...THE CANOPY OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE HOVERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN THE WARMEST/DRIEST AIR TO RESIDE
HERE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S CENTRAL TO 40S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UTILIZED A 50/50 COMBINATION
BLEND OF THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL 2M HOURLY RH FIELD AND OFFICIAL
GRIDDED FORECAST TO YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE SOUTHWEST. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW AND RELATED AIRMASS FROM FRIDAY HAVING ADVECTED IN FROM
WYOMING. THE HRRR RH FIELD VERIFIED WELL IN NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL
AS UPSTREAM IN THE LAST 24HR. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEAKEST IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWEST.
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY (15-25MPH)
FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.

ON SUNDAY...DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY FALL GIVEN 850-MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE 97.5 TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE...DRY SOILS...AND DORMANT VEGETATION...ALL OF WHICH
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT HEATING. WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR HIGHS IN
THE 60S F IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW 70 F READINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. MIXING IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
MORE SHALLOW THAN ON SATURDAY BASED ON 00 UTC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
THAT RAISES A BIT OF CONCERN FOR WARMING....BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
THAT WILL JUST ENSURE WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNDAY IS
APT TO BE A TRULY STELLAR EARLY MARCH DAY.

THEREAFTER...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP ITS CORE WELL SOUTH IN TX AND MEXICO. WE DO
HAVE A LOW-GRADE SHOWER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PROGRESSIVE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
THEN OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND
THAT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST RIDGING REBUILDING AGAIN BY LATE WEEK....WITH THE 00 UTC
NAEFS EVEN CALLING FOR 850-MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BY FRIDAY. THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL IN A LONG-LEAD
ENSEMBLE FORECAST...SUGGESTING HIGHS COULD ONCE AGAIN END UP WELL
INTO THE 60S F /WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST/ BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

MVFR CIGS AT KJMS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THEREAFTER AND ACROSS ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25KT SATURDAY WILL BECOME WEST AT
5-10KT AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THE PROJECTED FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN THE
HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. DESPITE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...WINDS
WILL BE LACKING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA BEING MET.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...JUST AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACH THEIR
MINIMUM AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 214 PM PST SAT MAR  5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND PRODUCE A BRIEF BURST OF GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. A
WEAKER FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FOR A
BRIEF BREAK IN WEATHER TUESDAY MORNING. MORE WET WEATHER IS ON TAP
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OFFSHORE WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THREE DISTINCT BOUNDARIES STEMMING FROM WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A TRIPLE POINT LOW OFFSHORE THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
BORDER. THE LOW IS LESS IDENTIFIABLE ON VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY.

LIGHT RAIN ALONG ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES BEGAN SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER SW OREGON QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. THIS MORE PERSISTENT RAIN WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE COAST...COAST
RANGE...AND CASCADES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND 0.40 TO 0.6
INCH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND OFF OF THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT...STAYING JUST
WEST OF 130W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LOW
MOVES BY THE AREA...AND EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF STRONG WINDS FOR THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 OR POSSIBLY 35
MPH FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD FALL TO NEAR THE
CASCADE PASSES...3500 TO 4000 FEET BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE SUNDAY AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 0.15 TO 0.4 INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE  CASCADES. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED  THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT
OVER THE REGION.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY FORM A 990MB SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN OREGON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW LOWS...AND DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH WIND. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE WEAKER WITH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST BELOW CASCADE PASSES. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.60
INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH  1 TO 3
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY CONTINUING SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN EARLY TUESDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A RATHER STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEATHER MODELS INDICATE THIS IS AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETUP WITH THE FRONT TAPPING INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
OF 1.1 T0 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. INTEGRATIVE VAPOR
TRANSPORT SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SW
OREGON AND NO CAL...BUT NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WILL STILL GET A
DECENT SOAKING.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVER FORECASTS CLOSELY AS WE
GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TW
&&

.AVIATION... VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
KONP AND KBOK WITH AREAS OF MVFR. COASTAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER INTO PREDOMINANT MVFR TO IFR EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 04Z. IMPROVEMENT
TO AN MVFR TO VFR MIX AFTER 06Z. INLAND AREAS TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR
THROUGH 00Z THEN SHOW A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW-END VFR 00Z TO 12Z
SUN. SW-W WIND 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT MSL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT AND MVFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND 25 TO 35 KT OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS 02Z TO 10Z SUN. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR KAST JUST BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SE SURFACE WIND 10-15 KT AND S WIND 30-40 KT
AT FL020.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN RETURNS
AROUND 00Z SUN...BUT EAST SURFACE COMPONENT SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR LIKELY AFTER 06Z SUN...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR BY
12Z. E TO SE SURFACE WIND SWITCHES TO S TO SW AROUND 06Z...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE INSIDE 130W WITH BUOY
002 REPORTING SURFACE PRES OF 981.6 MB AT 20Z. WIND HAS BECOME
MORE SE AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THE 14Z RUC AND 12Z NAM
NOT QUITE AS ROBUST WITH WIND SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW 30-35 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS
06Z SUN. NAM ALSO INDICATED JUST 35 KT AT 975 MB. WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID GALES WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WIND
LOOKS TO BE FROM 02Z TO 08Z SUN. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN OREGON WATERS SUN AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM
IS FURTHER N WITH THIS SECONDARY LOW...BRINGING IT INLAND NEAR
NEWPORT 06Z MON. GFS SHOWS THE ENERGY FURTHER S...BETWEEN NORTH
BEND AND BROOKINGS. SHOULD THE NAM VERIFY...MAY NEED TO GO WITH
GALES FOR PZZ255 SUN EVENING.

CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN A BIT LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WATERS TUE. MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
MAIN ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND S OREGON WATERS. EAST WIND
COMPONENT TUE WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE INDICATED GALE FORCE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUE.
MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF REINFORCING SURFACE LOWS TRAVELING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD WED AND WED EVENING.
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SEAS HAVE SETTLED TO 10 TO 12 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO 20 FT
12Z TO 18Z SUN...WITH A RATHER LARGE WIND-WAVE COMPONENT. SEAS
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS GET CLOSE TO 2O FT AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS PORTLAND OR

 934 PM PST FRI MAR  4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE
COAST...YIELDING A MOSTLY DRY EVENING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT...
EVENTUALLY SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS ALSO BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS...WHICH WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER TO THE CASCADE PASSES FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
ALONG THE COAST SO FAR THIS EVENING...A STARK CONTRAST FROM THE GALE
FORCE WINDS OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE. THE DELAY IN WINDS HAS LARGELY
BEEN DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
40N/127W WHICH IS KEEPING PRESSURE GRADIENTS UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT...WITH THE REMNANT IMPULSE FORECAST BY THE
00Z NAM AND UW WRF-GFS TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS COULD YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS REACH
55-65 MPH ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...WHILE THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS
DWINDLING A BIT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL VERIFY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL NOT VERIFY IS NOT NEARLY
HIGH ENOUGH TO CANCEL AN EXISTING WARNING AT THIS POINT.

THE SAME WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HOLDING UP THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
HAS ALSO ALLOWED A MAINLY DRY EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ASIDE
FROM SOME SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. IN FACT...NO RAWS OR ASOS
STATIONS HAVE REPORTED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST HOUR IN
OUR CWA. ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO DECREASE POPS EAST OF THE
COAST RANGE THIS EVENING. 03Z HRRR AND 00Z NAM/GFS STILL SUGGEST THE
FRONT WILL MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TO SPREAD RAIN
INLAND LATER TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THE EXISTING FRONT WILL LIKELY
STRETCH AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WHILE OVER WESTERN WA/OR SAT.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...
AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUN BREAKS OR THINNING IN CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO REACH A POINT WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE UP TO 25 KFT OR SO. WITH STRONG FORCING
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A DEVELOPING LOW AND NEGATIVELY-
TILTED COLD FRONT...DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ADD A THUNDER
MENTION TO THE ENTIRE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPS UPWARDS BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A THERMAL RIDGE
OF 850 MB TEMPS +8 TO +10 DEG C SPREADING UP NORTH THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. BARRING A COMPLETELY CLOUDY DAY WITH
NO SUNBREAKS AT ALL...THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS TO
REACH 60 DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THESE WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL ASSIST ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE DEVELOPING LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS SHOWING MORE AND MORE
INDICATION THAT IT IS GOING TO BE THE BIG DOG OF THIS SERIES OF LOWS
BRUSHING THE PAC NW COAST. A VERY WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS EASILY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
40N/145W. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS TIGHTENING
THE BAROCLINICITY...WHILE A 160-180 KT JET STREAM FEEDS INTO THIS
SYSTEM. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...AND
THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THIS NICELY IN DEVELOPING A 975 MB LOW NEAR
45N/130W BY SAT AFTERNOON WHICH EVENTUALLY BECOMES A 965 MB PARENT
LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII BY SUN AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE LOW...DRIVING A STRONG AND VERY SHARP COLD
FRONT INTO THE OREGON COAST LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT EVENING. THE
00Z NAM DEVELOPS ANOTHER SUB-980 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
OREGON COAST...WHICH IS POSSIBLE BUT THE DETAILS ARE LIKELY
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE MODEL TO RESOLVE AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS NOT JUST ALONG THE COAST...BUT INLAND AS WELL SAT EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH LOW-END ADVISORY GUSTS IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY... THOUGH THIS IS NOT SHOWN AT THIS POINT BY
EITHER THE 00Z NAM OR UW WRF. WILL HOLD GUSTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW...WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD.
GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW...GRADIENTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. HOWEVER A STRONG
SURGE OF WIND IS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NOT JUST FOR
THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS BUT FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS WELL.
JUST HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW
AND IF/WHEN/WHERE ANY SECONDARY LOWS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE TYPE OF EVENT
WHICH UNDERPERFORMS FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS BUT OVERPERFORMS
ELSEWHERE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SAT NIGHT/SUN. MEANWHILE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS
UNSTABLE WITH COOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL LIKELY ADD UP IN THE
CASCADES BY MONDAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR YET
ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SAT EVENINGS FRONT...IT APPEARS
ANY STRONG LOW THAT WOULD DEVELOP BY THEN WOULD LIKELY STAY WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. ALL IN ALL...AN INTERESTING PATTERN FOR STORMWATCHERS THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY DECREASING UNDER BRIEF
RIDGING. THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 FEET.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW (AND ASSOCIATED FRONT) TAPPING INTO A
SWATH OF 1.10 TO 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. INTEGRATIVE VAPOR
TRANSPORT SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SW
OREGON...BUT THINK NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON CAN STILL GET A
DECENT SOAKING. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START AROUND 3500 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET WEDNESDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONT AND BAND OF RAIN WILL PUSH ONSHORE OVERNIGHT
AND BRING A DETERIORATION TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MANY TAF
SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
TURN CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING STRONGER WINDS
REGION WIDE SATURDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST AND 35 KT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
LIKELY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS KEEP EAST TO SOUTH
WINDS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SEVERAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WHILE EACH STORM SYSTEM IS NOTABLE...THIS HAS LIKELY
PREVENTED A WORST CASE SCENARIO FROM UNFOLDING. NONETHELESS...GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WATERS...AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT STORM
WARNING GOING DUE TO AN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM...BUT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
NOT PROMISING.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LULL IN WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PRODUCES ANOTHER
SET OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURES AND STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT SUSPECT WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN SOLID GALE FORCE CRITERIA OF 40 TO 45 KT. AT THIS POINT...THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND ABRUPT RISE IN SEAS WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM
AND 9 PM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE THAT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER FRONT TUESDAY-ISH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
WEEK...AND MAY EXCEED 20 FT BY QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 542 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A POTENT-LOOKING SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE OHIO VALL INTO THE S APPALACHIANS. WEAK FORCING ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME THRU CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING NO MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. A BLEND OF 12Z ENSEMBLE QPF AND MORE RECENT HRRR/NAM/GFS
OUTPUT SUPPORT ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH SOME PLACES
LIKELY SEEING NO ACCUM AT ALL. SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LGT SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE SE COUNTIES ARND
DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 30S WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START REBOUNDING RAPIDLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO IMPROVING SKIES AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG WARM UP THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW
OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

BANDS OF SNOW TO THE WEST ABOUT ON TRACK.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MVFR OVER THE LAURELS...VFR ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD REDUCED CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOW DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK-SPRAWLING LOW SLIDING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST IN NORTH...AND ONLY INTERMITTENTLY AS AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY AFTER DARK INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE FLYING AREA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY BRINGING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE.

EARLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING OR MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AIRSPACE.

THU...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 446 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING
MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IS CLOUDY AS OF MID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER EASTERN ZONES
TO THE LOW 20S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE IS DOING
A FINE JOB IN KILLING WHAT LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY THE OBSERVING SITES OF THE SOUTHWEST
REPORTING SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW.

A SPRAWLING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES TOWARD WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EVEN
BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY IS VERY
DISORGANIZED...LEADING TO A FORECAST WHERE THE POPS MAY BE HIGH
BUT THE QPF IS LOW.

THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE FROM ABOUT 21Z/4PM THROUGH ABOUT 09Z/4AM...WITH THE PERIOD FROM
ABOUT 03-06Z HAVING THE MOST OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTUAL PRECIP IN
PROGRESS. IN GENERAL NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF IS
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY MAINLY SNOW AS
WE COOL OFF A BIT...ACCUMS WILL REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LAURELS WHERE SOME WEAK OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
COULD LEAD TO AN INCH OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 30S WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START REBOUNDING RAPIDLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO IMPROVING SKIES AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG WARM UP THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW
OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

BANDS OF SNOW TO THE WEST ABOUT ON TRACK.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MVFR OVER THE LAURELS...VFR ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD REDUCED CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOW DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK-SPRAWLING LOW SLIDING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST IN NORTH...AND ONLY INTERMITTENTLY AS AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY AFTER DARK INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE FLYING AREA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY BRINGING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE.

EARLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING OR MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AIRSPACE.

THU...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 347 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING
MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IS CLOUDY AS OF MID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER EASTERN ZONES
TO THE LOW 20S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE IS DOING
A FINE JOB IN KILLING WHAT LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY THE OBSERVING SITES OF THE SOUTHWEST
REPORTING SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW.

A SPRAWLING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES TOWARD WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EVEN
BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY IS VERY
DISORGANIZED...LEADING TO A FORECAST WHERE THE POPS MAY BE HIGH
BUT THE QPF IS LOW.

THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE FROM ABOUT 21Z/4PM THROUGH ABOUT 09Z/4AM...WITH THE PERIOD FROM
ABOUT 03-06Z HAVING THE MOST OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTUAL PRECIP IN
PROGRESS. IN GENERAL NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF IS
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY MAINLY SNOW AS
WE COOL OFF A BIT...ACCUMS WILL REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LAURELS WHERE SOME WEAK OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
COULD LEAD TO AN INCH OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 30S WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START REBOUNDING RAPIDLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO IMPROVING SKIES AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG WARM UP THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW
OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR OVER THE LAURELS...VFR ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD REDUCED CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOW DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK-SPRAWLING LOW SLIDING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST IN NORTH...AND ONLY INTERMITTENTLY AS AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY AFTER DARK INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE FLYING AREA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY BRINGING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE.

EARLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING OR MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AIRSPACE.

THU...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 125 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING
MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE REGION IS CLOUDY AS OF MID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER EASTERN ZONES
TO THE LOW 20S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE IS DOING
A FINE JOB IN KILLING WHAT LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY THE OBSERVING SITES OF THE SOUTHWEST
REPORTING SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW.

A SPRAWLING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES TOWARD WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EVEN
BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY IS VERY
DISORGANIZED...LEADING TO A FORECAST WHERE THE POPS MAY BE HIGH
BUT THE QPF IS LOW.

THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL
BE FROM ABOUT 21Z/4PM THROUGH ABOUT 09Z/4AM...WITH THE PERIOD FROM
ABOUT 03-06Z HAVING THE MOST OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTUAL PRECIP IN
PROGRESS. IN GENERAL NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF IS
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY MAINLY SNOW AS
WE COOL OFF A BIT...ACCUMS WILL REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LAURELS WHERE SOME WEAK OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
COULD LEAD TO AN INCH OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 30S WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START REBOUNDING RAPIDLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO IMPROVING SKIES AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG WARM UP THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR SE DURING
THE MORNING...LOOK FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT NW SFC FLOW.

BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW
FLOW OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z
ECENS. TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MVFR OVER THE LAURELS...VFR ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD REDUCED CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOW DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK-SPRAWLING LOW SLIDING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST IN NORTH...AND ONLY INTERMITTENTLY AS AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY AFTER DARK INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH THE FLYING AREA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY BRINGING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE.

EARLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING OR MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AIRSPACE.

THU...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 737 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE
FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONTINENT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS STARTING MONDAY...AND LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AND INFRARED SATL LOOP INDICATES A LARGE SHIELD OF
ALTOSTRATUS SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AND
OVER A LAYER OF STRATOCU CLOUDS THAT COVERED THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AND LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. THE RADAR RETURNS
LOOK MUCH MORE OMINOUS THAN WHAT WE`RE NOTING AT METAR SITES
ACROSS OHIO AND WRN PENN. THE SEVERAL AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH VSBYS AOA 7SM ARE SHOWN TO FIZZLE OUT ACROSS WRN PA
/FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS/ BY THE LATEST
SVRL RUNS OF THE HRRR AS THE LLVLS WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A SLIGHT NUDGE OF FCST TEMPS TOWARD THE LATEST BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP YIELDS MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE L30S ACROSS HE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 40F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW /WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WORD LIGHT/
WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TODAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK /1016-1018
MB/ SFC LOW AND ASSOC WEAK WAA. CONSENSUS MODEL QPF IS JUST A
FEW...TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WHICH LEADS TO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SIMILAR...IF NOT LIGHTER IN MOST AREAS THAN WHAT OCCURRED
ABOUT 48 HOURS PRIOR - THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LAURELS COULD BE THE EXCEPTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY EARLY SUNDAY...CONSIDERING THAT THIS
IS THE TARGET AREA FOR THE HRRR`S QPF - AS A RESULT OF BEING
CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS WEST VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR SE DURING
THE MORNING...LOOK FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT NW SFC FLOW.

BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW
FLOW OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z
ECENS. TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 05/12Z TAFS THROUGH 06/12Z
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS /2500-5000FT AGL/ WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN AIRSPACE. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM WI THRU WV/KY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR VIS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS AT JST. PATTERN FAVORS STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS GETTING TRAPPED UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WITH LOW CIGS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

SUN...MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 602 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE
FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONTINENT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS STARTING MONDAY...AND LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AND INFRARED SATL LOOP INDICATES A LARGE SHIELD OF
ALTOSTRATUS SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AND
OVER A LAYER OF STRATOCU CLOUDS THAT COVERED THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AND LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. THE RADAR RETURNS
LOOK MUCH MORE OMINOUS THAN WHAT WE`RE NOTING AT METAR SITES
ACROSS OHIO AND WRN PENN. THE SEVERAL AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH VSBYS AOA 7SM ARE SHOWN TO FIZZLE OUT ACROSS WRN PA
/FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS/ BY THE LATEST
SVRL RUNS OF THE HRRR AS THE LLVLS WILL STAY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A SLIGHT NUDGE OF FCST TEMPS TOWARD THE LATEST BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP YIELDS MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE L30S ACROSS HE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 40F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW /WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WORD LIGHT/
WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TODAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK /1016-1018
MB/ SFC LOW AND ASSOC WEAK WAA. CONSENSUS MODEL QPF IS JUST A
FEW...TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WHICH LEADS TO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SIMILAR...IF NOT LIGHTER IN MOST AREAS THAN WHAT OCCURRED
ABOUT 48 HOURS PRIOR - THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LAURELS COULD BE THE EXCEPTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY EARLY SUNDAY...CONSIDERING THAT THIS
IS THE TARGET AREA FOR THE HRRR`S QFP - AS A RESULT OF BEING
CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS WEST VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR SE DURING
THE MORNING...LOOK FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT NW SFC FLOW.

BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW
FLOW OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z
ECENS. TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 05/06Z TAFS THROUGH 06/06Z
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR
TO LOW VFR CIGS /1.5-4KFT AGL/ IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WRN 2/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. VFR ALONG/EAST OF IPT-MDT LINE WITH FEW-
SCT CIGS AT 5KFT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM WI THRU WV
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS AT JST.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...VFR. RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 215 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE
FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONTINENT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS STARTING MONDAY...AND LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
IR LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK HOLDING TOUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA`S
MAINSTEM.

MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A SHIELD OF ALTOCU/ALOTSTRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.

EXPECT EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TO BE COMMON
ACROSS THE N MTNS. MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS MAINLY THE L-M20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PA. SOME SPOTS IN SCENT PENN WILL HAVE TROUBLE SLIPPING BELOW 27F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY EARLY SUNSHINE TODAY /MAINLY ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST OF THE STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK/ WILL FADE BEHIND THICKENING
CLOUDS BY LATE THIS MORNING...AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE FROM THE GRT
LKS.

IT WILL STAY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW MTNS THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS. INVOF KBFD AND POINTS WEST...SOME FLURRIES COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 15Z...BUT THE 05Z HRRR AND PRIOR RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT
THIS INITIAL BATCH OF VERY LIGHT QPF FIZZLES OUT ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.

THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW /WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WORD LIGHT/
WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TODAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK /1016-1018
MB/ SFC LOW AND ASSOC WEAK WAA. CONSENSUS MODEL QPF IS JUST A
FEW...TO SVRL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WHICH LEADS TO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SIMILAR...IF NOT LIGHTER IN MOST AREAS THAN WHAT OCCURRED
ABOUT 48 HOURS PRIOR - THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LAURELS COULD BE THE EXCEPTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY EARLY SUNDAY...CONSIDERING THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS WEST VA.

NATIONAL BLEND COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE L30S OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 40F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AS A WEAK CLIPPER SLIDES
THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. STILL LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY WEAK
AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM...WITH MEAN QPF SUPPORTING
A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR
THE HIGHEST AMTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM MDL TIMING OF
WEAK SFC REFLECTION SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL SAT
NIGHT.

SOME BRIEFLY MDT SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LAURELS...INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL PENN SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME FLEETING BANDS OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP/DRIFT ESE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW
WILL BE VERY LIGHT /SIMILAR TO THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY/ AS THE
FAVORABLE THERMAL RIBBON FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH STAYS BETWEEN
7-11 KFT AGL AND WEAK OMEGA COINCIDES WITH IT. THE BEST PERIOD
FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL BE IN
THE 06-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT NW FLOW. WIDE CONSENSUS
AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND
ASSOC SW FLOW OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER
12Z ECENS. TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 05/06Z TAFS THROUGH 06/06Z
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR
TO LOW VFR CIGS /1.5-4KFT AGL/ IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WRN 2/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. VFR ALONG/EAST OF IPT-MDT LINE WITH FEW-
SCT CIGS AT 5KFT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM WI THRU WV
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS AT JST.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.

WED...VFR. RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

 248 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DUE TO
THIS RADIATIONAL COOLING...COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO
ISSUE AN ADVISORY. ANY SHALLOW FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL MIX OUT
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW CAN BE
NOTED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE MORNING.
PW VALUES ARE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH
VALUES IN THE 0.5-0.6 INCH RANGE. THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z WITH COLDER AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL USHER IN DRY...WARM CONDITIONS. A
STRONG WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CULMINATE WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ALLOWING A SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE WEST TN
AREA TO MOVE IN. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON DETAILS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD....BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN. AS THE BOUNDARY
AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  35  63  41 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  35  56  37 /  20  30   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  35  56  37 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  33  53  33 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA/MJB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 511 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD SPREADING EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE. IT HAS BEEN A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...THOUGH THE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE PREVENTING RECORD HIGHS. A FEW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RH VALUES HOVERING AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 25 MPH THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND PRONE AREAS WERE NOT A PROBLEM TODAY WITH CLOUDS
INHIBITING LOW-LEVEL MIXING.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN UPSTREAM...SO BELIEVE THE HRRR SOLUTION WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. ADDED SOME LOW
END POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT WE
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. TOMORROW MAY
BE QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF I25 WITH SBCAPES AROUND 250-500
J/KG. WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING...ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS IN
THOSE AREAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES. SNOW IS LIKELY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES THRU
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. A SOLID 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. CONSIDERED AN ADZY
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT EXPECT IMPACTS TO BE LOW OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WE
COULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND EXCELLENT H7 FRONTOGENESIS. WITH REGARD TO QPF...THE GFS AND ECM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH ALONG/EAST OF I25. NAM IS
AN OUTLIER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. TEND
TO FAVOR WESTERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IS CHALLENGING WITH THE VERY WARM
PRE-FRONTAL AIR. GFS/NAM WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGESTS A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW IN CHEYENNE BY MID EVENING...THE FAR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. ELEVATIONS AT
OR BELOW 4500 FEET MAY SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. GENERALLY EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
ONE INCH...BUT COULD SEE A LOT MORE IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. DECREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SPLIT PATTERN ALOFT
AT MID-WEEK WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DOMINATING
THE CWA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ON WED
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 50S. NOT
MUCH CHANGE FOR THURS AND FRI WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING
AS A MEAN RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS & UPPER
MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE
INCREASING WITH 700MB WINDS 40-45 KT THURS. WINDS DECREASE A BIT
FRI. THE PROLONGED DRY PATTERN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER THREAT MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. CHANGES OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE
MAIN ENERGY PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH
A MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT DO EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING OUT WEST BY RAWLINS...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. WILL BE A PERIOD LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AIRPORTS WILL SEE RAIN TURNING OVER TO SNOW. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED AND THIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 10-20 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEYOND TODAY...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LIKELY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 244 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Satellite images indicate an elongated wave will affect central
Illinois over the next 12 to 15 hours. The latest HRRR and RAP
guidance point towards periodic waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms progressing from SW to NE, with most areas seeing
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Instability params
are relatively weak, so convection should remain isolated for the
most part this morning, but a couple of hail reports can not be
ruled out.

Showers should depart to the northeast later this afternoon, as the
wave shifts east of the area. Clouds will still dominate the skies
through the day, but strong southerly winds will help boost high
temps well above normal. Temps should climb into the mid 60s north
of I-74, with low 70s near and west of Jacksonville. Momentum
from a 50-60kt LLJ will mix toward the surface today, producing
wind gusts of 35 mph at times, especially east of I-55 under the
strongest LLJ winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. Steady plume of moisture expected to stream northward out
of the southern Gulf of Mexico and into central Illinois, with
precipitable water values reaching around 1.2 inches by Tuesday
evening and over 1.5 inches by Wednesday evening, close to
climatological maximum for this time of year. Latest model runs
continue to shift the heaviest axis of precipitation a bit further
northwest, focusing on around 2 inches of QPF through Thursday night
from near the I-55 corridor west to the Illinois River. However,
this is not locked in stone yet, as there continues to be some
fluctuations in the frontal position midweek.

Upper trough currently off the Washington/Oregon coast will dig
significantly today along the West Coast, closing off an upper low
by evening over southern California. The track of this low is not
being handled the best by the models, with earlier projections of it
remaining over Mexico through the week now basically limited to just
the ECMWF model. The other models lift it into southwest Texas as
early as Wednesday night, with the ECMWF about 24 hours slower. A
sharpening upper trough will dig just east of the Rockies and keep
the southwest upper flow over the Midwest into Thursday, largely
keeping the upper low cut off until the weekend. This results in the
frontal boundary not fully going through the forecast area until
later Thursday.

Leading up to that point, a good chunk of tonight is looking to be
dry, with the showers developing in the richer moisture feed west of
the Mississippi River this evening, before shifting east overnight.
Highest PoP`s will mainly be over the Illinois River valley with
slight chances as far east as I-55. Eastern CWA likely to remain dry
until late Tuesday afternoon. Categorical PoP`s focused from about
Decatur northwest Tuesday night before shifting eastward, as a wave
of low pressure rides northeast along the front. Have lingered 80%
PoP`s into Thursday morning over the southeast CWA.

In the longer range, the handling of the upper low late week leads
to significant differences in returning the front and associated
precipitation shield northward. Have tried to follow the slower
solution offered by the ECMWF, but overall confidence in the rain
forecast that far out is rather low at this point.

Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Clouds continue to slowly lower and thicken this evening ahead of
a weather weather disturbance slated to move across the area
Monday. Seeing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing west of STL now and expect some of that activity to
affect our TAF sites during the early morning hours of Monday.
Just what affect any of the rain will have on cigs and vsbys
will be the main forecast challenge. Forecast soundings suggest
a lowering of the cigs across our western TAF sites to MVFR for
a brief period of time, especially at PIA and SPI, before
returning to VFR conditions by mid to late afternoon and then
continuing through the evening as the upper wave moves off to
our east.

ILX VAD wind profile indicating southerly winds at 50-55 kts in
the 1500-2000 foot level and expect that to continue overnight.
Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction through the
early morning hours at 12 to 17 kts with an occasional gust around
23 kts. Gusty southerly winds will continue on Monday with speeds
in the 15 to 20 kt range with gusts approaching 27 kts at times,
with speeds lowering to between 12 to 17 kts after 00z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1101 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

The combination of a rather gusty south wind and extensive mid and
high level cloud cover should help keep temperatures on the mild
side tonight. We continue to watch a weak shortwave trof out to
our west that will bring in an increasing threat for showers
and possibly a thunderstorm or two, especially Monday morning.
00Z ILX sounding still quite dry from the surface up to 15000
feet, but forecast soundings off the RAP model continue to
moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere late tonight as
the aforementioned upper disturbance approaches. Initially,
with the rather unfavorable environment for convection later
tonight, most of the precip will be mainly showers. However,
as we continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere
towards morning with the approach of the shortwave, there
may be enough elevated cape to help spark some isolated storms
at times during the morning.

As the shortwave shifts off to our northeast by afternoon, our
rain chances will take a break for at least 12 hours before the
next wave of showers affects mainly west central IL early Tuesday
morning. The current forecast has these trends handled well, so
other than some minor tweaks to the hourly temperatures, no other
changes were needed that would warrant a zone update at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Short-wave trough evident on 19z/1pm water vapor imagery over Kansas
will ripple northeastward, spreading clouds and eventually a few
showers into portions of central Illinois tonight.  Airmass is
initially quite dry below 500mb as evidenced by current LAPS
soundings, so think precip may be even slower to arrive than some
models would suggest.  NAM/GFS/SREF indicate showers spreading in
from the southwest between 06z and 09z: however, the Rapid Refresh
delays precip until after 09z.  At this point, will only carry
slight chance PoPs west of I-55 by mid to late evening, then will
ramp up to high chance after midnight.  NAM forecast soundings show
modest elevated instability developing overnight, with MUCAPE values
of 100-150J/kg.  Will therefore mention isolated thunder as well.
Further east, conditions will remain dry east of the I-57 corridor
through the night.  Will be a breezy and mild night, with overnight
lows remaining in the middle to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

A much warmer and wetter pattern will develop over the next few days
as a large scale ridge currently over the central U.S. shifts
eastward allowing a plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture to position
over central Illinois and the surrounding area along with a somewhat
stationary frontal boundary. Current GFS model progs bring
precipitable water values of 1 to 1.3 inches from the period from
Monday morning through at least midweek, which would be near maximum
values for this time of year. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary is
expected to move into the area and linger Wednesday into Thursday.
The exact movement of this boundary remains somewhat uncertain, but
it will play a large role in where periods of heavier precipitation
will set up. Nevertheless, midweek, especially Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning looks to have the best chance for heavy
precipitation, especially I-72 southward. Initially, however, a
couple of weaker disturbances will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Monday a strong low level jet combined with rich
moisture will continue to affect areas mainly west of I-57 early in
the day. Additional disturbances moving into the upper Midwest along
the approaching frontal boundary will bring more showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night, again primarily west of I-
57.

Toward the end of the forecast period next weekend...a low
originating as a cut-off low over Mexico midweek could become a
factor in developing more precipitation over central IL, however
latest trends have been to slow down the feature and eject it more
toward the southeastern U.S. instead of the Midwest. Nevertheless,
it still bears watching.

High temperatures should reach the mid to upper 60s Monday and
Tuesday before falling somewhat to the neighborhood of 60 to 65 the
remainder of the week and next weekend as the frontal boundary slips
off to the south. Of course, the position of the boundary and exact
timing of the precipitation periods will have impacts on these
temperatures later in the week. Lows will remain in the 50s Monday
night and Tuesday night, followed by cooler but still mild readings
in the 40s and mainly lower 50s the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Clouds continue to slowly lower and thicken this evening ahead of
a weather weather disturbance slated to move across the area
Monday. Seeing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing west of STL now and expect some of that activity to
affect our TAF sites during the early morning hours of Monday.
Just what affect any of the rain will have on cigs and vsbys
will be the main forecast challenge. Forecast soundings suggest
a lowering of the cigs across our western TAF sites to MVFR for
a brief period of time, especially at PIA and SPI, before
returning to VFR conditions by mid to late afternoon and then
continuing through the evening as the upper wave moves off to
our east.

ILX VAD wind profile indicating southerly winds at 50-55 kts in
the 1500-2000 foot level and expect that to continue overnight.
Surface winds will remain from a southerly direction through the
early morning hours at 12 to 17 kts with an occasional gust around
23 kts. Gusty southerly winds will continue on Monday with speeds
in the 15 to 20 kt range with gusts approaching 27 kts at times,
with speeds lowering to between 12 to 17 kts after 00z.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

An upper-level impulse has been producing some weak echoes as it
moves northeast along the northwest periphery of the region, and
recent HRRR runs are showing a bit more coverage in our forecast
area, especially along I-64 in southern Illinois just after
12z. Went ahead and added in isolated showers in that area through
around 15Z.

South winds have begun gusting into the teens over western portions
of the area and temperatures have been climbing into/through the
50s in the last couple of hours. See little reason for
temperatures to fall much from current levels, which means a
warmer start to the day than previously expected. All of the cloud
cover will be in the mid and upper-levels, so with some
insolation expected, highs today should climb to near 70 over much
of the region. We may not be warm enough, if the sun can pop out
for awhile anywhere.

The south winds will increase and become quite gusty, with 30-35
mph gusts possible. Guidance has been pretty consistent here, but
current VWPs from area radars show 60-65kts of southwest flow at
925mb. Certainly won`t be surprised if gusts are greater than
forecast, especially if/where the sun pops out and causes better
mixing.

Tonight should be a near repeat of this morning with persistent
south winds and plenty of cloud cover. Definitely playing the warm
side of guidance for lows.

As for the rain event, the 00Z models continue to trend slower
with the onset and northeastward spread of the more widespread
showers. The 00Z 4km WRF runs keep the entire area dry through the
day Tuesday, which is very similar to the 00Z NAM. Backed PoPs
down to slight chance/chance levels and confined them to southeast
Missouri on Tuesday afternoon.

A couple of swaths of showers will eventually pass north northeast
through southeast Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. But even
this activity will be moving along, so QPF amounts will be
stunted a bit. Model soundings still are not showing much
instability, so thunderstorms still appear to be limited. The
flood potential through Wednesday is definitely trending downward
even in southeast Missouri.

Will confine likely to categorical PoPs Tuesday night to southeast
Missouri, and then spread them into southern Illinois Wednesday.
Not sure if portions of west Kentucky or southwest Indiana will
get wet at all through the end of the day Wednesday.

With the drier trend Tuesday through Wednesday, also have trended
warmer with temperatures. There are likely to be lots of lower and
middle 70s for highs over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Models are in good agreement showing the cold front extending from
the southern Great Lakes region into southwest Missouri at 12z
Thursday.  ECMWF then pushes the front just south of our region by
12z Friday, while GFS and the Canadian hang the front across the PAH
forecast area.  Models have varied quite a bit over the last several
runs of just how far south the front will move and how quickly it
will come back north, but have agreed in the overall trend of moving
moving the axis of greatest QPF a little farther west.  Widespread
showers will spread east across the region Wednesday night and
continue through Thursday into Thursday night.  Models differences
lower confidence somewhat as we get into Friday and through the
weekend, but all show showers continuing, but the focus of highest
QPF differs.  Went with likely precipitation south to chance north
on Friday, then kept precipitation in the chance category Friday
night and through the weekend.

Most significant QPF in the long term will be Wednesday night into
Thursday, with 1 to 2 inch totals possible in that 24 hour period
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far west Kentucky,
with lesser amounts to the east.  The Ozark foothills may see
slightly higher amounts.  After Thursday, QPF amounts will drop off
quite a bit, though again with the uncertainty in the models, the
timing and amounts will need continued adjustments.  Also, although
the instability remains unimpressive, any thunderstorms that develop
could produce some heavier rainfall amounts.  The best chances of
thunderstorms will be mostly across the southern half of the PAH
forecast area.

Temperatures will remain incredibly warm through the extended, with
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals, and
overnight lows 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

Main aviation concern will be strong low-level winds later tonight
and on Monday. Introduced mention of low level wind shear for the
late night/early morning hours, when southwest winds will be around
45 kt at 2000 ft. Low level winds will decrease during the day
(after about 15z), but surface gusts from 20 to 30 knots are
expected as diurnally induced mixing increases. No cig or vsby
issues are expected in the dry air mass.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 107 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM EAST...MOST THE REGION
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. WE COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES IN
SPOTS...STILL SEEM LIKE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IS REASONABLE GIVEN
QUICKSAND MESONET IT SITTING AT 34 AND JACKSON ASOS IS SITTING AT
46 DEGREES THIS HOUR. UPDATED TEMP CURVE TO MATCH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES NEEDED AT BEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING BY. DID HAVE TO MAKE MORE WHOLESALE ADJUSTMENTS TO
DEWS...AS AIR WAS DRIER BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE BENEFITS BEFALLING THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL CLEARED ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN AND HIGH ONES DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY MIXED OUT AND DROPPED A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL BUILD A MODERATE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES MUCH STRONGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL THEN SERVE TO KEEP ANY ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE...INITIALLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS...AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS DIFFERENCE MAY APPROACH 15 DEGREES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TOUCH OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE A VERY NICE DAY AS MORNING LOWS...PARTICULARLY CHILLY IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS...GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE
60S DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BEING AS EXTREME.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DISTINCTION. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY ZEROED THEM OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW WITH RAIN
CHANCES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING FORWARD
PROGRESS AGAINST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA...THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE DELAYED A BIT
MORE...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE MOVEMENT AND
DEFINING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT BECOME A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHEARS IT OUT...AND THEN MOVES THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE THE FRONT BARELY
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. IN OTHER WORDS...SPRING WILL BE VISITING THE REGION
EARLY STARTING THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DID TWO LINE TAF ONLY TO HIGHLIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY BETTER MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ/JMW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

 248 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

THE WARM UP WILL KICK INTO FULL EFFECT TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. IN THE
MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES AS OF 2AM ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL START OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWS 30S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
THAT CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL
BRING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE NOTED
JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND SEASONALLY
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE REACHING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. THEN...ON THURSDAY...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION MOVING IN. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN QUITE POOR
WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE
LOW ON DETAILS...AND THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH A DRIER THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME LOWER
POPS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
MOVES IN IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THE WEEKEND FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  46  73  53 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  45  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  47  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  40  70  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA/MJB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1027 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD SPREADING EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE. IT HAS BEEN A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...THOUGH THE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE PREVENTING RECORD HIGHS. A FEW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RH VALUES HOVERING AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 25 MPH THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND PRONE AREAS WERE NOT A PROBLEM TODAY WITH CLOUDS
INHIBITING LOW-LEVEL MIXING.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN UPSTREAM...SO BELIEVE THE HRRR SOLUTION WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. ADDED SOME LOW
END POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT WE
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. TOMORROW MAY
BE QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF I25 WITH SBCAPES AROUND 250-500
J/KG. WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING...ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS IN
THOSE AREAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES. SNOW IS LIKELY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES THRU
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. A SOLID 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. CONSIDERED AN ADZY
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT EXPECT IMPACTS TO BE LOW OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WE
COULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND EXCELLENT H7 FRONTOGENESIS. WITH REGARD TO QPF...THE GFS AND ECM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH ALONG/EAST OF I25. NAM IS
AN OUTLIER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. TEND
TO FAVOR WESTERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IS CHALLENGING WITH THE VERY WARM
PRE-FRONTAL AIR. GFS/NAM WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGESTS A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW IN CHEYENNE BY MID EVENING...THE FAR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. ELEVATIONS AT
OR BELOW 4500 FEET MAY SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. GENERALLY EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
ONE INCH...BUT COULD SEE A LOT MORE IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. DECREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SPLIT PATTERN ALOFT
AT MID-WEEK WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DOMINATING
THE CWA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ON WED
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 50S. NOT
MUCH CHANGE FOR THURS AND FRI WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING
AS A MEAN RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS & UPPER
MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE
INCREASING WITH 700MB WINDS 40-45 KT THURS. WINDS DECREASE A BIT
FRI. THE PROLONGED DRY PATTERN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER THREAT MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. CHANGES OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE
MAIN ENERGY PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH
A MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT DO EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING OUT WEST BY RAWLINS...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. INSTABILITY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
AROUND 500-600 J/KG. DID ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TAFS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE A PERIOD LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS WILL SEE RAIN TURNING
OVER TO SNOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 10-20 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEYOND TODAY...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LIKELY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 855 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY...DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL...AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY TO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANTICIPATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE
SOME MODEST COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A BIT OF A BREAK THIS MORNING...AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT US THE GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MOVES OFF TO
THE NE...INTO WESTERN CO/EXTREME NORTHERN NM. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH
CLEARED FOR THE MOMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS
BEING REPORTED. SOME HAZINESS CAN BE SEEN IN THE SKY AS
WELL...LIKELY DUE TO LEFTOVER SUSPENDED DUST FROM YESTERDAY. OVER SE
CA AND SW AZ...WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER...WHICH IS NOW GENERATING
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS NOW MOVING INLAND
INTO THE LA BASIN...IS STILL FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...THEN INTO NORTHERN BAJA/SONORA LATER TONIGHT
AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA...ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ..WHERE
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL MOVES A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THAT REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALONG
WITH THE SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS SE
CA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SW AZ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AGAIN POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS CONCERNED...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/HIGH-RES
FORECASTS...INHERITED FORECASTS SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TUESDAY...
THE NEXT LOW...WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS EVIDENT OVER AND NEAR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OCCURRING THERE...MAINLY
OFFSHORE...NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS A VERY STRONG JET...SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 185
KTS...CHARGING SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...THE
TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG. AS A RESULT THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO WITH THE JET AXIS REMAINING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...LESS SO OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
CHANCES GOING OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SREF CAPE PROBABILITIES INDICATE SOME MODEST CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
IT WILL GET WINDY AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THUS HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST/SAND AT TIMES AND ADDED THAT FOR TODAY
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY BUT WITH NORTHERLY ORIENTATION WHICH TENDS TO BE
LESS DUSTY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NICE DROP
TODAY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS BARELY REACHING 70 DEGREES...STAYING
BELOW THAT OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TEMPS
START TO CLIMB ON TUESDAY TO VERY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN
REALLY FORCEFULLY BUT ENOUGH TO PUT US BACK INTO THE 80S. WINDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE GETTING FLATTENED OVER THE WEEKEND
BY A COUPLE OF WEAKENING TROUGHS. GFS STRONGER WITH IT THAN ECMWF
AND GEM. NAEFS POPS PRETTY MODEST. BUT WITH A FETCH OVER THE PACIFIC
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS SO THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES OVER JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY. WEST WINDS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING THAT A FULL SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. ITS QUITE POSSIBLE A VARIABLE OR
SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE QUICKLY GOING BACK TO
A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT LATE IN THE MORNING.

SCATTERED CUMULUS DECKS SHOULD FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING DURING
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THIS MORNING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BKN
DECK COULD INITIALLY FORM NEAR 7K FT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY BKN DECKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AFTER 02Z...WITH BASES BETWEEN
7K AND 10K FEET...AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR KPHX...DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER BELOW 6K FEET
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
GUSTY WINDS...LOWER VFR CIGS...AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALL
AFFECT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TERMINALS TODAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE A STRONG AS SUNDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT W/SW
GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS NEAR
4K FT IS NOT AS CERTAIN...THOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A 1-3
HOUR TIME PERIOD SOMETIME IN THE 18Z-24Z TIME FRAME WHERE LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WHILE CATEGORIES SHOULD STAY IN
THE VFR RANGE...THERE IS SOME VERY LIMITED CHANCE OF BRIEFLY
TOUCHING MVFR CATEGORY DURING MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 416 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOSTLY END BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING
IN THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SPREADING
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 AM PST MONDAY...A RELATIVELY POTENT AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE LAST EVENING. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OFFSHORE...PRIMARILY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LASTING HEAVY RAIN LIKE WHAT
OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING SINCE SUNDAY
EVENING...THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4
AM PST. MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY
4 AM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA. SO IT`S LIKELY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ALSO...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY. RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE HILLS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AND CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT ALL BUT A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH ALONG OUR
COAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOSTLY END BY EVENING AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SINK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AND FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TODAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY LATE TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.

THE COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE COOLEST INLAND VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CA BY TUESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...OR
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW FORECAST LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR TO
SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL THEN EITHER REMAIN REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (ECMWF) OR SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (GFS). IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF IT
REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:03 AM PST MONDAY...TOUGH FORECAST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT A SFC LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY
AREA AS WELL. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AND WILL SO
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS WILL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON PRECIP.
THE TOUGHEST CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS. EXPECTING
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH CIGS
3500-5000 FT. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITH A PASSING SHOWER. TOUGHER
FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN THE WINDS. SE TO W WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AS THE SFC LOW TO N MOVES S. HEDGED BETS FOR MORE
SW...BUT OCCASIONAL SE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP THIS AM. DO EXPECT MORE
WESTERLY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SPEEDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...DESPITE RAIN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:12 AM PST MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 15 TO 18 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14
SEC. WESTERLY SWELL MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG SOUTH OF POINT SUR WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
WESTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TUESDAY.&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...SF BAY
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 245 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOSTLY END BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING
IN THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SPREADING
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 AM PST MONDAY...A RELATIVELY POTENT AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SINCE LAST EVENING. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OFFSHORE...PRIMARILY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THE PERSISTENT AND LONG-LASTING HEAVY RAIN LIKE WHAT
OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING SINCE SUNDAY
EVENING...THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4
AM PST. MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY
4 AM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA. SO IT`S LIKELY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ALSO...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY. RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE HILLS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AND CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT ALL BUT A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH ALONG OUR
COAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOSTLY END BY EVENING AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SINK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AND FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TODAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY LATE TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.

THE COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE COOLEST INLAND VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CA BY TUESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...OR
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW FORECAST LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR TO
SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL THEN EITHER REMAIN REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (ECMWF) OR SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (GFS). IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF IT
REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SUNDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NEARING
THE SFO BAY AREA AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AFTER
08Z. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IN THE SFO/OAK VICINITY THROUGH 12Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS HAVE REMAINED IN THE VFR RANGE BUT MAY
DROP BRIEFLY INTO MVFR RANGE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH 12Z. SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT SWITCHING
TO SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING AFTER 08Z. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL HAVE AFTER 08Z.
FORECAST IS FOR A SWITCH TO 230 DEGREES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AND MAY ONLY GRADUALLY SWITCH TO 210-220 FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
GOING TO 230-240. SHOWERS WITH RISING CIGS AFTER 12Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 3000
FEET. LIGHT RAIN BECOMING SHOWERY AFTER 13Z.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:17 AM PST SUNDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 11
TO 13 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14 SEC. WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS STILL EXPECT TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MOST COASTAL LOCATION REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SPOT NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH SURF WARNING. SINCE IT IS
BORDERLINE...WILL LEAVE THE ADV AS IS FOR NOW. EITHER
WAY...CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME RATHER ROUGH LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY SWELLS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
PEAKING ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 4 AM
             WIND ADVISORY...ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 4 AM
             HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...SF BAY
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 AM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM UNTIL 3
     PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 446 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. COLDER AIR
SLOWLY FILLING INTO THE REGION AS SFC FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. LATE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS AS RESULT...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VALUE INCLUDES SNOW
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...SO ANOTHER 2 TO 4 TODAY. SNOW LEVELS
RUNNING IN THE 5-6K RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LEVEL OUT NEAR 6K BY
MID MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR VARY BY A LARGE
MARGIN WITH THE BIGGEST WINNER SO FAR BEING PARK RESERVOIR UP ON
THE GRAND MESA WHICH IS CLIMBING PAST THE FOOT MARK WITH A SIMPLE
10 TO 1 RATIO. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET A BETTER
LOOK AT WEBCAMS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO ITS COLD PHASE AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND
SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN END OUTPACING ITS
NORTHERN PORTION. A VORT LOBE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE FAR CORNER OF
NORTHWEST CO BY 15Z WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL CO. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE LONGER OVER THE CO PORTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ENERGY WILL
REMAIN REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO THE ELK HEAD AND NORTHERN PARK RANGES SHOULD PICK UP
THEIR BEST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AS OUR STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS
SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND THE
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM TRACK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERED THE
COOLING IN THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN
FEATURE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO MEXICO AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THIS LOW...THUS PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON OUR FORECAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ENERGY OUT TO OUR
WEST...BUT EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO OUR AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROLLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT THEN CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ILS OR WORSE CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-010-012-013-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023-
     025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1002 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Weakening short-wave trough is currently lifting into northern
Illinois, accompanied by scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. 16z/10am radar imagery shows the bulk of the precip
has shifted east of the I-57 corridor, with dry conditions noted
further west across the Illinois River Valley. Latest HRRR
continues to show the showers quickly shifting off to the east
into Indiana over the next couple of hours, with all precip coming
to an end across the KILX CWA by 19-20z. Have updated PoPs to
better reflect current trends. Once the showers end, mostly
cloudy, breezy, and very warm conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the day. Southerly winds will gust to between 20 and
30 mph, while afternoon high temperatures climb well into the
60s. May even see a few lower 70s across the SW around
Jacksonville. Updated forecast has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Satellite images indicate an elongated wave will affect central
Illinois over the next 12 to 15 hours. The latest HRRR and RAP
guidance point towards periodic waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms progressing from SW to NE, with most areas seeing
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Instability params
are relatively weak, so convection should remain isolated for the
most part this morning, but a couple of hail reports can not be
ruled out.

Showers should depart to the northeast later this afternoon, as the
wave shifts east of the area. Clouds will still dominate the skies
through the day, but strong southerly winds will help boost high
temps well above normal. Temps should climb into the mid 60s north
of I-74, with low 70s near and west of Jacksonville. Momentum
from a 50-60kt LLJ will mix toward the surface today, producing
wind gusts of 35 mph at times, especially east of I-55 under the
strongest LLJ winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. Steady plume of moisture expected to stream northward out
of the southern Gulf of Mexico and into central Illinois, with
precipitable water values reaching around 1.2 inches by Tuesday
evening and over 1.5 inches by Wednesday evening, close to
climatological maximum for this time of year. Latest model runs
continue to shift the heaviest axis of precipitation a bit further
northwest, focusing on around 2 inches of QPF through Thursday night
from near the I-55 corridor west to the Illinois River. However,
this is not locked in stone yet, as there continues to be some
fluctuations in the frontal position midweek.

Upper trough currently off the Washington/Oregon coast will dig
significantly today along the West Coast, closing off an upper low
by evening over southern California. The track of this low is not
being handled the best by the models, with earlier projections of it
remaining over Mexico through the week now basically limited to just
the ECMWF model. The other models lift it into southwest Texas as
early as Wednesday night, with the ECMWF about 24 hours slower. A
sharpening upper trough will dig just east of the Rockies and keep
the southwest upper flow over the Midwest into Thursday, largely
keeping the upper low cut off until the weekend. This results in the
frontal boundary not fully going through the forecast area until
later Thursday.

Leading up to that point, a good chunk of tonight is looking to be
dry, with the showers developing in the richer moisture feed west of
the Mississippi River this evening, before shifting east overnight.
Highest PoP`s will mainly be over the Illinois River valley with
slight chances as far east as I-55. Eastern CWA likely to remain dry
until late Tuesday afternoon. Categorical PoP`s focused from about
Decatur northwest Tuesday night before shifting eastward, as a wave
of low pressure rides northeast along the front. Have lingered 80%
PoP`s into Thursday morning over the southeast CWA.

In the longer range, the handling of the upper low late week leads
to significant differences in returning the front and associated
precipitation shield northward. Have tried to follow the slower
solution offered by the ECMWF, but overall confidence in the rain
forecast that far out is rather low at this point.

Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR conditions are generally expected to continue for much of the
next 24 hours, despite showers and isolated thunderstorms this
morning, and again late tonight west of I-55. Forecast soundings
suggest the cigs should remain just above MVFR for the most part,
but if a thunderstorm affects a TAF site a brief period of MVFR
conditions could occur. The shortwave driving this mornings
precipitation will progress northeast of our counties this
afternoon, bringing an end to the precip chances from SW to NE
between 16z and 20z.

ILX VAD wind profile shows LLWS conditions could persist another
hour or two before surface winds increase from the south.
Sustained winds will increase to 15-18kt with gusts to 25-30kt
possible. The GFS model is indicating wind speeds remaining gusty
tonight, while the NAM shows some decoupling possible. We leaned
toward keeping the gusts going. Time height cross sections point
toward possible LLWS shear conditions after midnight tonight, if
surface winds decouple.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 556 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Satellite images indicate an elongated wave will affect central
Illinois over the next 12 to 15 hours. The latest HRRR and RAP
guidance point towards periodic waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms progressing from SW to NE, with most areas seeing
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Instability params
are relatively weak, so convection should remain isolated for the
most part this morning, but a couple of hail reports can not be
ruled out.

Showers should depart to the northeast later this afternoon, as the
wave shifts east of the area. Clouds will still dominate the skies
through the day, but strong southerly winds will help boost high
temps well above normal. Temps should climb into the mid 60s north
of I-74, with low 70s near and west of Jacksonville. Momentum
from a 50-60kt LLJ will mix toward the surface today, producing
wind gusts of 35 mph at times, especially east of I-55 under the
strongest LLJ winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. Steady plume of moisture expected to stream northward out
of the southern Gulf of Mexico and into central Illinois, with
precipitable water values reaching around 1.2 inches by Tuesday
evening and over 1.5 inches by Wednesday evening, close to
climatological maximum for this time of year. Latest model runs
continue to shift the heaviest axis of precipitation a bit further
northwest, focusing on around 2 inches of QPF through Thursday night
from near the I-55 corridor west to the Illinois River. However,
this is not locked in stone yet, as there continues to be some
fluctuations in the frontal position midweek.

Upper trough currently off the Washington/Oregon coast will dig
significantly today along the West Coast, closing off an upper low
by evening over southern California. The track of this low is not
being handled the best by the models, with earlier projections of it
remaining over Mexico through the week now basically limited to just
the ECMWF model. The other models lift it into southwest Texas as
early as Wednesday night, with the ECMWF about 24 hours slower. A
sharpening upper trough will dig just east of the Rockies and keep
the southwest upper flow over the Midwest into Thursday, largely
keeping the upper low cut off until the weekend. This results in the
frontal boundary not fully going through the forecast area until
later Thursday.

Leading up to that point, a good chunk of tonight is looking to be
dry, with the showers developing in the richer moisture feed west of
the Mississippi River this evening, before shifting east overnight.
Highest PoP`s will mainly be over the Illinois River valley with
slight chances as far east as I-55. Eastern CWA likely to remain dry
until late Tuesday afternoon. Categorical PoP`s focused from about
Decatur northwest Tuesday night before shifting eastward, as a wave
of low pressure rides northeast along the front. Have lingered 80%
PoP`s into Thursday morning over the southeast CWA.

In the longer range, the handling of the upper low late week leads
to significant differences in returning the front and associated
precipitation shield northward. Have tried to follow the slower
solution offered by the ECMWF, but overall confidence in the rain
forecast that far out is rather low at this point.

Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR conditions are generally expected to continue for much of the
next 24 hours, despite showers and isolated thunderstorms this
morning, and again late tonight west of I-55. Forecast soundings
suggest the cigs should remain just above MVFR for the most part,
but if a thunderstorm affects a TAF site a brief period of MVFR
conditions could occur. The shortwave driving this mornings
precipitation will progress northeast of our counties this
afternoon, bringing an end to the precip chances from SW to NE
between 16z and 20z.

ILX VAD wind profile shows LLWS conditions could persist another
hour or two before surface winds increase from the south.
Sustained winds will increase to 15-18kt with gusts to 25-30kt
possible. The GFS model is indicating wind speeds remaining gusty
tonight, while the NAM shows some decoupling possible. We leaned
toward keeping the gusts going. Time height cross sections point
toward possible LLWS shear conditions after midnight tonight, if
surface winds decouple.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 657 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

CONDITIONS REMAIN CALM ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. AS
WE CONTINUE TO SIT UNDER A STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE VARIED QUITE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN THE VALLEYS
AND THE RIDGES. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED
IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT INVERSION TO LESSON AND THESE
DIFFERENCES TO MITIGATE THEMSELVES AS TEMPERATURES WARM. A DENSER SHIELD
OF HIGHER CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGES FROM
THE ONGOING TEMP FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED
AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
HERE AT JKL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS A
WAVE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY PASSING NE ACROSS WESTERN KY...WHICH HAS
DIRECTED SOME MOISTURE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE FOR THE
CWA. THIS...COUPLED WITH A SHARP NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION...HAS
CONTINUED TO CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH
ELEVATION. EXPECT THIS RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BETTER MIXING TAKES
HOLD AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE A
STRONGHOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT BOWLING BALLS SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
BARREL ESE-WARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE
DEEPENING NATURE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY WORK TO AMPLIFY
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES THE
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. BY TUESDAY EVENING...KY WILL FIND ITSELF
TRANSITIONING TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND STARTING TO
TAP INTO SOME OF THE STRONGER SW TO NE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD...THE STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE IN ADDITION TO WARM SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM DISTURBANCES PASSING WEST AND NORTH
OF THE REGION. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE IS VERY DRY HOWEVER...SO STILL
LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL RH AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WHEN DECENT MIXING COULD PULL SOME
IMPRESSIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RIGHT NOW MOST
LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE RH LEVELS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULDN/T RULE OUT SOME RH IN THE
TEENS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON IF ANY HIGHER GUSTS
RESULT IN DEW POINT MIX DOWNS. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR TONIGHT NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP IT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT MUCH IN THE SAME AS TODAY...THOUGH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM FURTHER
INTO THE LOW 70S. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY STARTS ITS TRANSITION
EASTWARD...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE THIS OVERALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER FOR THE DAY...IT WILL AT LEAST KEEP RH LEVELS SLIGHTLY MORE
AT BAY...IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM MUCH OF FAR EASTERN
KY...INCREASING AS YOU HEAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENTRENCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF TEXAS INTO THE APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOWLY
MIGRATING UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. RAINFALL CHANCES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STEMMING FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE DELAYED IN THEIR ARRIVAL THIS WEEK AS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW HOLDS INFLUENCE LOCALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT DIGGING AND SLOW
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SAID UPPER DISTURBANCE.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND POINTS EAST...AS GULF MOISTURE
SLOWLY BENDS EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JOURNEYING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. STUBBORN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MID
TO SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ATLANTIC COAST MAY VERY WELL KEEP THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS DRY UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
COMMONWEALTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INTERACTION/PHASING OF THIS
FEATURE WITH INITIAL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THIS PERIOD MAY POTENTIALLY SEE THE MOST VIGOROUS LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WITHOUT A PLETHORA OF EARLIER DAY RAIN...THUS
MAINTAINING A BETTER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO AS PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CREATE TOO STRONG OF A CAP TO PUNCH
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS
HUNG UP AND WASHED OUT WELL OFF TO THE NORTH.

A WARM FRONT BRINGING BONAFIDE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD
BET AT SOME POINT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT ISSUES
RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN UPPER LOW PRECLUDE
PINPOINTING THIS AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY ALSO VERY
WELL BE A NUMBER OF PERIODS CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL
DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS BECOME BETTER VISUALIZED LATER INTO
THIS WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH DOES HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE A CERTAINTY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S
FROM MID-LATE WEEK BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT THICK MID CLOUD COVER REMAINS
SUPPRESSED WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RIVAL NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DECENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEND ITSELF TO
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS...AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
15KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF STIES...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ. THESE
WINDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...JMW



  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
532 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 433 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

A few lightning strikes have developed over southern Illinois, and
current radar trends suggest that a few rumbles will be possible
for the next 3 hours or so, mainly west of Interstate 57 and
north of Highway 13. The forecast has been updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

An upper-level impulse has been producing some weak echoes as it
moves northeast along the northwest periphery of the region, and
recent HRRR runs are showing a bit more coverage in our forecast
area, especially along I-64 in southern Illinois just after
12z. Went ahead and added in isolated showers in that area through
around 15Z.

South winds have begun gusting into the teens over western portions
of the area and temperatures have been climbing into/through the
50s in the last couple of hours. See little reason for
temperatures to fall much from current levels, which means a
warmer start to the day than previously expected. All of the cloud
cover will be in the mid and upper-levels, so with some
insolation expected, highs today should climb to near 70 over much
of the region. We may not be warm enough, if the sun can pop out
for awhile anywhere.

The south winds will increase and become quite gusty, with 30-35
mph gusts possible. Guidance has been pretty consistent here, but
current VWPs from area radars show 60-65kts of southwest flow at
925mb. Certainly won`t be surprised if gusts are greater than
forecast, especially if/where the sun pops out and causes better
mixing.

Tonight should be a near repeat of this morning with persistent
south winds and plenty of cloud cover. Definitely playing the warm
side of guidance for lows.

As for the rain event, the 00Z models continue to trend slower
with the onset and northeastward spread of the more widespread
showers. The 00Z 4km WRF runs keep the entire area dry through the
day Tuesday, which is very similar to the 00Z NAM. Backed PoPs
down to slight chance/chance levels and confined them to southeast
Missouri on Tuesday afternoon.

A couple of swaths of showers will eventually pass north northeast
through southeast Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. But even
this activity will be moving along, so QPF amounts will be
stunted a bit. Model soundings still are not showing much
instability, so thunderstorms still appear to be limited. The
flood potential through Wednesday is definitely trending downward
even in southeast Missouri.

Will confine likely to categorical PoPs Tuesday night to southeast
Missouri, and then spread them into southern Illinois Wednesday.
Not sure if portions of west Kentucky or southwest Indiana will
get wet at all through the end of the day Wednesday.

With the drier trend Tuesday through Wednesday, also have trended
warmer with temperatures. There are likely to be lots of lower and
middle 70s for highs over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Models are in good agreement showing the cold front extending from
the southern Great Lakes region into southwest Missouri at 12z
Thursday.  ECMWF then pushes the front just south of our region by
12z Friday, while GFS and the Canadian hang the front across the PAH
forecast area.  Models have varied quite a bit over the last several
runs of just how far south the front will move and how quickly it
will come back north, but have agreed in the overall trend of moving
moving the axis of greatest QPF a little farther west.  Widespread
showers will spread east across the region Wednesday night and
continue through Thursday into Thursday night.  Models differences
lower confidence somewhat as we get into Friday and through the
weekend, but all show showers continuing, but the focus of highest
QPF differs.  Went with likely precipitation south to chance north
on Friday, then kept precipitation in the chance category Friday
night and through the weekend.

Most significant QPF in the long term will be Wednesday night into
Thursday, with 1 to 2 inch totals possible in that 24 hour period
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far west Kentucky,
with lesser amounts to the east.  The Ozark foothills may see
slightly higher amounts.  After Thursday, QPF amounts will drop off
quite a bit, though again with the uncertainty in the models, the
timing and amounts will need continued adjustments.  Also, although
the instability remains unimpressive, any thunderstorms that develop
could produce some heavier rainfall amounts.  The best chances of
thunderstorms will be mostly across the southern half of the PAH
forecast area.

Temperatures will remain incredibly warm through the extended, with
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals, and
overnight lows 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over southern Illinois
early this morning should not pose a threat to any of the TAF
sites. Mid-level ceilings and south winds will persist through
the period. Winds will pick up by mid-morning at all sites and
gusts 20-25kts will be common through the afternoon.

Maintained a mention of LLWS at KEVV and KOWB early this morning
due to 60-65kts of wind on area VWPs at 925 mb. It has already
begun to gust at KCGI and KPAH, so will not mention LLWS there.
Winds off the surface are not expected to be quite as strong
tonight, but they should still be sufficient to include LLWS at
all sites mainly for the overnight hours.

Guidance is hinting at lower clouds beneath the inversion arriving
at KCGI and possibly KPAH late tonight. Confidence is not great,
but if they do make up here, figure that they will still be at
VFR levels.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 954 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

ISSUED AN EARLIER QUICK UPDATE FOR SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MORNING.
GUIDANCE/MOS COMPLETELY OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY. 12Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWED EARLIER 6KFT LAYER WHICH HAS COMPLETELY VANISHED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AN INCREASED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS INTO THE STRAITS
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK VORTICITY
IN A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK NE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE THOUGHT HERE...IS FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS. ALSO...DRYING COULDN`T HAVE BEEN TOO
SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE SRN CWA. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT TOO BAD
STILL AT 6-6.5 C/KM AND THE ARRIVAL OF RENEWED LOW TO MID LEVEL
WAA AND CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS POPPING OFF. FORCING IS
VERY WEAK HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF JET SUPPORT...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE POOLING...SEEN VIA LATEST RUC PWATS...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
MANISTEE AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER...WITH 40S IN
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NRN LAKE HURON WITH
AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT/POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...STILL GETTING WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WX POTENTIAL...NONE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WERE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND EAST
OF HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONT CONNECTING THE TWO WAS
MOVING SE-WARD ACROSS SUPERIOR. A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAS AIDING SHRA (AND EVEN TSRA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT) DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF LOWER MI AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI...THEN STALL AND
WASH OUT...OVERWHELMED BY A WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR
CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.

TODAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. THE
AXIS OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH 500MB TEMPS RISING FROM -21C TO -17C. THAT WILL SHUT THE
DOOR ON CONVECTION AS WE MOVE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A
PROCESS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN NW SECTIONS. MAY NEED A MENTION OF EARLY-
MORNING SHRA IN S CENTRAL AND SE SECTIONS...BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF
NORTHERN MI WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE OTHER POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE IN EASTERN UPPER LATE. THOUGH THE
STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING...IT WILL STILL BE PRESENT...
JUST AS SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
RETURNS STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-750MB LAYER...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SHALLOWISH MOIST CONVECTION TO OCCUR. INCREASED THETA-E
ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
UPPER MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS...AND WILL REMAIN...SOUPY. A HIGH STRATOCU
DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTIONS ARE SE
SECTIONS (ABOUT TO BE IMPACTED BY REMNANT CONVECTION) AND EASTERN
UPPER. EASTERN UPPER LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD EMPHATICALLY CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. IN NORTHERN LOWER...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BE
GENERALLY PREVALENT...BUT WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.

BALMY MAX TEMPS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH A SURGE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVING AS THE RIDGING ALOFT
FLATTENS. ACTUALLY NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF PRECIP UPSTREAM PER
MODEL TRENDS...IT DEVELOPS OVER OUR HEADS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
PRIMARILY COME TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI IN THE EVENING...
LIFTING INTO FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT. WILL BE
BOOSTING POPS TO THE HIGH LIKELYS OR CATEGORICAL. LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP ALOFT...DON/T THINK WE RUN THE RISK OF THUNDER
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...THE MID-LEVELS DRY ABOVE
800MB BUT STAY QUITE MOIST BELOW. SO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE TRENDING SHARPLY HIGHER (SPIKING INTO THE 40S IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER) AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER ICE/SNOW/COLD LAKES/COLD GROUND WILL BE FOG-
PRONE. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

(3/8)TUESDAY...AS THE SFC LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO
ONTARIO, NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR, MOST OF THE FORCING WILL CONTINUE
WITH IT, AND A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH THE MAIN SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MORNING, WITH SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON, JUST
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS IN TEXAS AND BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE
FRONT/SFC TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SET UP, PUMPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO MICHIGAN, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM
FLOW WILL KEEP US WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE-WISE (NORMAL HIGHS
MID TO UPPER 30S) AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WISE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER, BUT THE CHANCE IS PRETTY
LOW AT THIS POINT, AS THE MODELS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE 500 MB LOW, WHICH AT
12Z(WED), IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO.

(3/9)WEDNESDAY...AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT OF MICHIGAN, IT BEGINS
TO PULL THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WITH IT, THE RAIN. IN THE MEANTIME,
THE NEXT SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AHEAD OF
THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS BEGINS TO PUSH RAIN
BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN N LOWER, AND CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO E UPPER AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS
LIKE IT LINES UP MORE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE MAY GET A LIGHT CATEGORICAL EVENT AS THE RAIN PUSHES NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE TREND FOR DAY 4-7 CONTINUES
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND NOW PRECIPITATION AS THE MODELS
HAVE FOCUSED ON THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND PUSHES COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
BRANCH, BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE JET AND PRODUCING MORE RAIN.
SO THE BASIC IDEA OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN ON THURSDAY, THEN THE
500 MB RIDGE BUILDS, PUSHING THE RAIN EAST, ONLY FOR THE 500 MB LOW
TO LIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH BRINGS THE RAIN BACK INTO
THE REGION AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND MAYBE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR TODAY...TURNING MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE NORTHERN MI...WELL AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE VFR IN
NATURE. HOWEVER...AN INCOMING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN -RA
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWERED CIGS/VSYBS IN STRATUS AND
FOG. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST...TENDING TO BE S TO SE.
LINGERING LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING APN/TVC/MBL. LLWS RETURNS LATE
TONIGHT MBL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AS OUR AIRMASS GETS INCREASINGLY
WARM/STABLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...AND MARINE HEADLINES WILL
BE ABLE TO GO AWAY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP SOMEWHAT AGAIN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT...IN PARTICULAR ON LAKE
MI.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ345-346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 653 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT IS NOW S OF JAMES BAY. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO FAR...LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS MODELS STRONGLY ADVERTISED 24HRS AGO. SOME
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...BUT VIS IS MOSTLY 3-5SM. A BIT BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRATUS IS SURGING S ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
AND HAS RECENTLY REACHED THE NRN SHORE OF THE LAKE E OF THUNDER BAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 3-4MB/3HR PRES RISES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. FRONT
SHOULD END UP JUST S OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. ITS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR S THE TRAILING STRATUS WILL MOVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEERING FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT...THE
LATEST RAP PROBABLY HAS THE EDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -DZ GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ THERE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER AS DEVELOPING E TO SE WINDS OCCUR LATER AND
WON`T HAVE AS MUCH OF A LAKE MODIFIED COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 40S E AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE WI BORDER. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE INTERIOR W HALF.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED S TODAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH BECOME QUITE STEEP ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8.5C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND EVEN
ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT SOME -DZ TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

MOST AREAS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL MN TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE IN THE 12Z/08 AND 18Z/08 TIME PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
WAA INTO THE AREA IS MAXIMIZED AND ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID
LEVEL REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY OVERLAYING
MOISTURE...PRESSURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE 295K TO
300K ISOSURFACE. COULD EVEN SEE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SMALL AMOUNT...AROUND 200J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALOFT...ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT RISES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AFTER WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO GREATLY
REDUCE THE INTENSITY AND OR COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE U.P. BETWEEN 00Z/09 AND 06Z/09 MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
AND GENERALLY SHALLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTER AREAS OF THE U.P.
WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE
A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.  AT THIS POINT HAVE
KEPT A SCATTERED MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT KCMX IN
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. AT
KSAW...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
MID MORNING. COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE AFTN/EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW/KCMX WILL LEAD TO VLIFR BY
LATE EVENING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS
SHOULDN`T FALL BLO IFR TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT IS NOW S OF JAMES BAY. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO FAR...LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS MODELS STRONGLY ADVERTISED 24HRS AGO. SOME
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...BUT VIS IS MOSTLY 3-5SM. A BIT BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRATUS IS SURGING S ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
AND HAS RECENTLY REACHED THE NRN SHORE OF THE LAKE E OF THUNDER BAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 3-4MB/3HR PRES RISES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. FRONT
SHOULD END UP JUST S OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. ITS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR S THE TRAILING STRATUS WILL MOVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEERING FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT...THE
LATEST RAP PROBABLY HAS THE EDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -DZ GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ THERE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER AS DEVELOPING E TO SE WINDS OCCUR LATER AND
WON`T HAVE AS MUCH OF A LAKE MODIFIED COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 40S E AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE WI BORDER. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE INTERIOR W HALF.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED S TODAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH BECOME QUITE STEEP ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8.5C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND EVEN
ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT SOME -DZ TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

MOST AREAS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL MN TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE IN THE 12Z/08 AND 18Z/08 TIME PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
WAA INTO THE AREA IS MAXIMIZED AND ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID
LEVEL REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY OVERLAYING
MOISTURE...PRESSURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE 295K TO
300K ISOSURFACE. COULD EVEN SEE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SMALL AMOUNT...AROUND 200J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALOFT...ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT RISES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AFTER WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO GREATLY
REDUCE THE INTENSITY AND OR COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE U.P. BETWEEN 00Z/09 AND 06Z/09 MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
AND GENERALLY SHALLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THIS HAPPENS...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTER AREAS OF THE U.P.
WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE
A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AT
THIS POINT AND MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING
TREND AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE GFS RUSHES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. WHILE THE EC
KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY
PLACING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES ON
TIMING AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PLACEMENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS.  AT THIS POINT HAVE
KEPT A SCATTERED MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

EXPECT THAT THE STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME
FOG. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTENING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR CIGS/FOG BY
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE IS LOW. EVENTUALLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DROP TO IFR TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 540 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THIS MORNING...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT WEST WORKING INTO COLORADO THIS
MORNING. UPPER FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SEND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD
MN/WI...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S PROGGED TO GET UP TO ABOUT I-94
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
BENEATH THE WARM AND DRY EML SAMPLED ON LAST NIGHTS MPX SOUNDING
THAT WILL BE CHANGING VERY LITTLE. THIS WARM/DRY LAYER WILL PROVE
PROBLEMATIC FOR US IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO COLORADO WILL ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL SODAK BY
12Z TUESDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR MORRIS MN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH WE WILL STILL SEE VALUES OF MUCAPE INCREASE
TO AROUND 1500 J/KG...WE DO NOT REALLY LOOK TO HAVE ANY FORCING
AROUND TO ALLOW US TO TAP INTO IT...WHICH IS WHY EVEN AT THIS
POINT...MODELS ARE STILL QUITE VARIABLE WITH PRECIP
PRODUCTION...THOUGH MOSTLY DRY DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ONE CAM
THAT EVENTUALLY PRODUCES PRECIP IS THE NCAR ENSEMBLE. SEVERAL OF ITS
MEMBERS DEVELOP SHOWERS AROUND DES MOINES THIS EVENING AND WORK THEM
TOWARD EAU CLAIRE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE LLJ. THE ONLY
DETERMINISTIC MODEL THAT PRODUCES MUCH IS THE ECMWF...WHICH IS STILL
KICKING OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NW EDGE OF THE
H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONGUE THIS EVENING IN WESTERN MN AND
CARRYING IT TOWARD NW WI THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS ECMWF IS WHAT BEST
MATCHES WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH IN TERMS OF QPF...SO CONTINUED
TO FOLLOW THAT ROUTE. IF WE ARE TO SEE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHERE
THE ECMWF HAS IT ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE LLJ MAKES THE MOST PHYSICAL
SENSE WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS AS A WHOLE...WHICH ALL SHOW A
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ALL WE LOOK TO BE ABLE TO DO IS SQUEEZE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE MOIST SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH IT
DOES NOT LOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH. THOUGH NOT NIL...THE SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS REALLY LOW...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WE DO
SEE WILL BE ELEVATED /NO WIND THREAT/ AND ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY WE WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOUDY BY THE
AFTERNOON...NOTHING HAS CHANGED WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY WERE BAD...SO SIMPLY MIXED IN A
LITTLE BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF HIGHS TO ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS.
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREDIBLY MILD WITH DEWPS IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE HIGH...BUT
THESE WILL NOT STAND FOR OUR DAILY LOWS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WILL GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF CALENDAR DAY
LOWS ON TUESDAY THAT OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT /END OF THE CALENDAR DAY/.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OVERALL
THREAT FOR THUNDER TUESDAY.

WARM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER AND MID 50S
SHOULD START OUT THE DAY TUESDAY. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER FAR
WESTERN MN BY1 2Z TUE. SOME THREAT OF LINGERING THUNDERSHOWER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA WITH ANY
LEFTOVER CONVECTION GENERATED BY LLJ ACTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
OVER THE MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND DROP IT OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE ONLY MODEL INCLUDING
HIRES THAT WAS SHOWING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
THE EAST...EVEN WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WITH THE
VERY WARM TUESDAY MORNING LOWS...SOME CHANCE OF RECORD WARM LOWS
FOR THE 8TH. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...ONLY KEAU
MAY SEE THIS EVENT OCCURRING.

RECORD WARM LOWS FOR THE 8TH OF MARCH ARE:
MSP - 47 1878
STC - 38 1898
EAU - 41 2000

UNEVENTFUL BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW DOES REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE ONLY QUESTION REMAINS HOW MODELS HANDLE THE CUTOFF
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO LIFT THIS
SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW OVERALL WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

EAST WINDS ARE STARTING TO TAKE HOLD IN CENTRAL MN...WHICH WILL
START TO DO SOME WORK ON THE FOG...THOUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
GET IT OUT OF AXN...AND TAF MAY BE TO OPTIMISTIC THERE.
OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING TIMING OF THE HRRR FOR BRINGING
MVFR STRATUS CURRENTLY DOWN BY OMAHA INTO MPX TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY GET HERE...THEY LOOK TO STAY AND LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 50S SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME LOW CIGS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
CONSIDERABLY OUT IN WRN MN AS A SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
DAKOTAS...THOUGH NOT READY TO GO AS BAD AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HAS FOR THEN. ALSO REMOVED ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM THE TAFS.
STRONG INVERSION LOOKS TO CREATE ISSUES FOR PRECIP GENERATION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF
IF...WHERE AND WHEN WE WILL SEE PRECIP...SO FELT BEST TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR NOW.

KMSP...HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH BRINGING STRATUS IN
FROM SW BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...SO FOLLOWED THAT TIMING FOR BRINGING
MVFR CIGS IN...THOUGH THEY MAY COME IN AT MORE 040 THAN 020. HARD
TO PIN DOWN WHEN MSP WILL SEE PRECIP...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS COME IN AS EARLY AS WITH THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THAT CHANCE PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW
THOUGH...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT ANY POINT AFTER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD TO INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS BCMG VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS SW BCMG NW 10 KTS.
WED...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 616 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

A weak shortwave trof combined with a strong low level jet is
producing elevated convection over the area this morning.  There
was obviously enough instability to produce thunderstorms, but
it looks like that instability has been greatly diminished based on
the falling number of lightning flashes over the past hour.  The RAP
and HRRR redevelop another wave of convection back over
central Missouri where there are currently some isolated showers.
Both models move the wave east-northeast through mid morning.  The
HRRR even develops a some training showers along the I-70 corridor
for a few hours after sunrise.  Neither of the models show
particularly strong storms, and this makes sense given the
limited amount of instability (~500 J/Kg or less).

Weak shortwave ridging builds overhead by 18Z which should shut off
the precipitation.  Forecast soundings show some fairly high RH from
500mb and up, so think it will stay fairly cloudy today.  That being
said, we`ll start the day with temperatures ranging from around 50
to the mid and upper 50s with southerly flow and continuing warm
advection.  Think highs in the low to mid 70s are easily attainable
with even moderate insolation through mid and high clouds.

Carney


GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

Another round of showers/storms is expected Monday night, mainly
across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to a weak
southwest flow shortwave and a strong southwesterly low level jet
over northwest MO which will bring increasing low level warm air
advection and moisture to the area. Our next shot of convection
should move into central MO Tuesday afternoon and through
northeast MO and west central IL, just north of STL Tuesday
evening with the potential for some heavy rainfall as upper level
divergence increases ahead of the approaching, but slow moving
upper level trough with deep south-southwesterly low-mid level
flow leading to a deep moisture profile. Tbe heaviest rain
potential will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as a northern
stream upper level trough moves eastward through the northern
Plains sending a cold front southeastward into our area. Still
some model discrepency as to where the heaviest rain will occur,
although they have been trending northward with the heaviest rain
axis, now extending from south central MO northeast into west
central IL with the heaviest QPF just west and north of STL
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The best potential for rain
should gradually shift south-southeastward on Thursday and Thursday
night as the front continues to shift southeastward. The rain
threat should shift back northward through much of the forecast
area Friday night and Saturday as the upper level low along with
an associated surface low finally move northeastward through our
area. The GFS model is a little more progressive with this
feature, shifting the rain out of our area by late Saturday night,
while the ECMWF does not push the rain completely northeast of
our forecast area until late Sunday night. For now will keep
chance pops going for the weekend, although the rainfall intensity
should be less. Will continue the heavy rain, hydrologic outlook
for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Later shifts may need
to issue a flood watch when the location, rainfall amounts and
timing becomes more certain.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

The low level jet is producing low level wind shear across the
area this morning...as well as forcing widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Visibility in the strongest storm cells is
likely at or below 3SM due to locally heavier rain, but elsewhere
and otherwise VFR flight conditions are previailing. The low level
jet will diminish after 15Z diminishing the threat for LLWS as
well as allowing the precipitation to diminish. VFR conditions
with gusty wind will prevail this afternoon. Gusts will diminish
this evening...and there`s some chance of LLWS again tonight
though the low level jet does not look to be quite as strong or as
near the surface. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR ceilings after 06Z Tuesday morning...especially across parts
of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois.

Specifics for KSTL:
A broken line of showers with a few thunderstorms is moving east
toward the terminal. While VFR conditions are expected to
prevail...a brief period of MVFR vsby looks likely as the showers
paass. Low level wind shear should diminish after 15Z along with
the threat for rain. VFR flight conditions and gusty south-
southwest flow will prevail this afternoon into the evening. There
is another chance of thunderstorms late tonight with potential for
MVFR ceilings/vsbys...but for the moment it looks like
precipiation will mostly stay north and northwest of the terminal.


Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 416 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

A weak shortwave trof combined with a strong low level jet is
producing elevated convection over the area this morning.  There
was obviously enough instability to produce thunderstorms, but
it looks like that instability has been greatly diminished based on
the falling number of lightning flashes over the past hour.  The RAP
and HRRR redevelop another wave of convection back over
central Missouri where there are currently some isolated showers.
Both models move the wave east-northeast through mid morning.  The
HRRR even develops a some training showers along the I-70 corridor
for a few hours after sunrise.  Neither of the models show
particularly strong storms, and this makes sense given the
limited amount of instability (~500 J/Kg or less).

Weak shortwave ridging builds overhead by 18Z which should shut off
the precipitation.  Forecast soundings show some fairly high RH from
500mb and up, so think it will stay fairly cloudy today.  That being
said, we`ll start the day with temperatures ranging from around 50
to the mid and upper 50s with southerly flow and continuing warm
advection.  Think highs in the low to mid 70s are easily attainable
with even moderate insolation through mid and high clouds.

Carney


GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

Another round of showers/storms is expected Monday night, mainly
across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to a weak
southwest flow shortwave and a strong southwesterly low level jet
over northwest MO which will bring increasing low level warm air
advection and moisture to the area. Our next shot of convection
should move into central MO Tuesday afternoon and through
northeast MO and west central IL, just north of STL Tuesday
evening with the potential for some heavy rainfall as upper level
divergence increases ahead of the approaching, but slow moving
upper level trough with deep south-southwesterly low-mid level
flow leading to a deep moisture profile. Tbe heaviest rain
potential will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as a northern
stream upper level trough moves eastward through the northern
Plains sending a cold front southeastward into our area. Still
some model discrepency as to where the heaviest rain will occur,
although they have been trending northward with the heaviest rain
axis, now extending from south central MO northeast into west
central IL with the heaviest QPF just west and north of STL
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The best potential for rain
should gradually shift south-southeastward on Thursday and Thursday
night as the front continues to shift southeastward. The rain
threat should shift back northward through much of the forecast
area Friday night and Saturday as the upper level low along with
an associated surface low finally move northeastward through our
area. The GFS model is a little more progressive with this
feature, shifting the rain out of our area by late Saturday night,
while the ECMWF does not push the rain completely northeast of
our forecast area until late Sunday night. For now will keep
chance pops going for the weekend, although the rainfall intensity
should be less. Will continue the heavy rain, hydrologic outlook
for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Later shifts may need
to issue a flood watch when the location, rainfall amounts and
timing becomes more certain.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2016

VFR conditions and southerly surface winds are expected to
prevail, outside of TSRA, at the TAF sites thru the valid period.
Two episodes of TSRA are expected, with the first ongoing over UIN
and STL metro sites, which should exit both by around 08z, and
then another that will enter thru central MO and COU by around
10z, exiting UIN and the STL metro sites by 15z. LLWS is ongoing,
thanks to a 45-50kt low level jet, and will continue until around
14-15z, with gusty winds for the remainder of the daylight hours
Monday. Another LLWS event possible Monday night, but it is
marginal and will leave out with this issuance.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
649 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Upper low has slowed its east-southeast progress and remains just
off the central CA coast this morning. Just looking at the trends
from satellite and radar data leads one to believe the best
chance for any appreciable snow will be farther south into Mono
County through the day. But...the latest HRRR depictions show
precipitation developing across far western Nevada and northeast
California later this morning in response to the expected
deformation zone on the north and northeast side of the upper low.
If/when this happens we could see a period of accumulating snow
across the far northern part of the forecast area where
temperatures are closer to the freezing mark this morning and
relative humidity is higher. Farther south along the Sierra Front
the temperatures this morning area a little higher and there is a
little more dry air near the surface. This would produce wet
bulbing...but may not be sufficiently cold enough to allow any
accumulation as the morning wears on. So...even though we may see
snow across the Reno/Carson City area later this morning...it does
not appear now there will be sufficient accumulating snow to
maintain the winter weather advisory.

Snow amounts will be a little less in the the Tahoe basin as
well...but we will maintain the warning there for now given snow
that has already fallen and continuing travel difficulties.
Farther north there is still light snow falling in parts of
northeast california so we will let the advisory continue there as
well. In Mono County we expect redevelopment as this area will be
closer to the upper low today. The amounts may not be what we
originally forecast...but there should be some snow and travel
difficulties later this morning. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

Storm pushing through the Sierra today may impact the morning
commute with snow covered roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
Tuesday will bring a brief break in the weather before the pattern
turns wet again midweek.

SHORT TERM...

Heavy snowfall continues in the Sierra early this morning as this
second winter storm pushes into the West Coast. Sierra passes have
been significantly impacted overnight with extensive travel delays,
chain controls, and even a temporary closure of Interstate 80 to
name a few incidents. For the latest on road conditions please
check with CalTrans, NDOT, or CHP.

Precipitation has not begun to spillover into western Nevada early
this morning, but high resolution simulations are indicating that
could occur sometime between 3AM and 6AM this morning. Forecast
model soundings are still indicating a very unstable atmosphere
with steep lapse rates that would be conducive to showers
developing. NAM/GFS are indicating that the area of deformation
may develop later, after 10AM, which would not be conducive to
snowfall accumulating on the roadways and therefore limiting
snowfall totals for Reno, Carson City, and Minden. Although totals
may be lower for the morning commute, drivers should be alert and
slow down as even wet roads will create slick driving conditions.

As the upper level trough drops south and east later this afternoon,
the flow turns north/northeast into the southern Sierra resulting in
moist upslope flow into Mono/Alpine counties. Wrap around bands
could result in a late afternoon burst of snow showers, especially
from Highway 50 south. With snowfall likely persisting through the
afternoon and into the evening, we decided to go ahead and extend
the Winter Storm Warning through 4PM. There is potential for
additional accumulations around 1 to 2 feet of snow above 7000 feet
through late this evening in Mono County. Please see the Winter
Storm Warning for details.

We are still anticipating a break in the weather on Tuesday as a
weak ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Tuesday night into
Wednesday, warm air advection precipitation starts to push into
far northern CA/NV with light precipitation possible mainly north
of Interstate 80. Models have continued to trend farther south
with this feature. With forecast model soundings showing an
isothermal layer for this time frame with the light precipitation,
we are expecting it to fall as snow with some light accumulations
possible especially north of Gerlach and Susanville. The light
snow accumulations could pose a problem for the Wednesday morning
commute as it would increase the chances for slick road
conditions. Weishahn

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

A few changes were made to pops in the extended forecast early on
with only minimal changes made after Friday. The model solutions
offer overall mild agreement in the long wave pattern as a broad
trough remains offshore through the extended period...but there is
little agreement in the details at this point regarding timing of
short waves rotating through the flow that would trigger periods of
precipitation. The extended looks to be a time of unsettled
weather...but whether that takes the form of rain or snow outside of
the higher elevations is quite literally up in the air at this point.

By Thursday the GFS is a little faster and farther south than the
ECMWF in bringing pcpn back to the region. This means lower snow
levels for the GFS as well. These differences extend into Friday as
the GFS moves the short wave through the region with pops
spreading across the CWA while the ECMWF holds the short wave back
to the west and almost gives it a negative tilt. This would slow
the entrance of pcpn into western Nevada until later Friday and
cause higher temperatures over the Basin and Range. The GEFS
ensembles show some minor support for this solution...but most
members are closer to the deterministic GFS. So the primary
changes were to bump pops up a bit over the far western CWA
Thursday and trim them back in the eastern CWA. Pops were lowered
in the far southeast CWA for Friday.

The ECMWF becomes almost zonal and much wetter than the GFS by late
Saturday. The GFS redevelops the long wave trough off the coast.
Again...these disparate solutions would have significant impacts to
pops...snow levels and temperatures. This extends into Sunday as the
GFS starts to eject another short wave and becomes much colder than
the ECMWF.

Overall there is a high likelihood that the extended period will
feature wet weather...but differences in the deterministic and
ensemble model solutions lead to a low confidence forecast regarding
any details. Will go with a very general forecast of the period this
cycle. 20

AVIATION...

Deep moisture plume and lift associated with the next short wave
trough and incoming upper level low will combine to produce snow
through the Sierra into the early afternoon while areas east and
north of the Sierra see a mix of rain and snow before turning to all
snow later today. Currently there is less precipitation making its
way over the Sierra as the mid level winds have become more
southerly. This will allow VFR conditions to hold on longer east of
the Sierra and even in some Sierra valleys through roughly daybreak.
As the upper low gets closer today...conditions should deteriorate
with snow accumulating on the Sierra runways up to as much as 6
inches through late morning and IFR conditions prevailing. East of
the Sierra the likelihood of accumulating snow is becoming far more
uncertain...but we could see a couple of inches at KCXP and KMEV
through 7/18 UTC. The lack of significant spillover is making
accumulations at KRNO far less likely...but they cannot be ruled out.

Occasional gusty winds will continue this morning up to 35kts from
the south. By late afternoon surface winds should shift to the
northwest for most locations. Lingering snow showers will bring
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions into the evening hours before the
showers taper off by daybreak Tuesday.

Another round of unsettled weather will return to the region
starting Wednesday and last through the week. 20


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ005.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ070-071.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PENDLETON OR

 733 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING 3 LOWS...ONE NORTH OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND...ONE OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND ONE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW THE CWA IS BETWEEN THE LAST TWO CENTERS. THE
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE IS MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
BE DRY UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z THOUGH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO ORIGINAL
FORECAST COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. COONFIELD


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2500-3500
FT.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA AND A COOLER SPLIT FLOW WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD STILL BE MILD AND IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S MOUNTAINS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...WITH 20S MOUNTAINS.  ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
AREA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST FOCUS ON THE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 925-
850MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR AN UPSLOPE
FLOW TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.  THERE COULD BE
CONCERN FOR SOME SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TO FLOOD AGAIN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS ARE
TRYING TO HOLD ONTO LOWER SNOW LEVELS KEEPING THE SNOWMELT MINIMAL.
IF MODELS TREND TOWARD A WARMER SNOW LEVEL IN THE COMING
DAYS THERE MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.  WEBER

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR ABOVE 4500-6500 FEET. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS. MODELS
ARE VARYING IN THE MOVEMENT OF WAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH EACH WAVE. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS. 93

AVIATION...12 TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWER CIGS WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 4500 AND 10000 FT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KRDM, KBDN, KDLS AND KYKM EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD.  WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR
THE CASCADES WITH A MENTION AT KDLS, KBND AND KRDM. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL BE BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT CIGS BETWEEN
5000 AND 10000 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  31  52  34 /  30  20  10  40
ALW  54  33  54  37 /  40  30  10  40
PSC  57  33  54  36 /  20  10  10  30
YKM  56  30  53  32 /  20  10  10  40
HRI  55  32  54  34 /  20  10  10  30
ELN  51  28  48  30 /  30  10  10  40
RDM  48  24  50  32 /  30  20  30  50
LGD  49  28  50  32 /  50  20  10  40
GCD  49  27  49  33 /  50  20  10  50
DLS  55  32  52  37 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/83/83




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 155 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016

&&

.SYNOPSIS... A WEATHER SYSTEM...THAT WILL BE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN NEXT WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE STRONG UPPER LOW...THAT PUSHED A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND INTO THE LA AND SAN DIEGO AREAS THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH (OR EVEN MORE)...AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OFF SMALL
HAIL...CAN NOW BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO
MOVE S-WARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO
THE LA/SAN DIEGO METRO AREAS HAS NOW CROSSED THE COASTAL RANGES AND
HAS WEAKENED GREATLY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE PARENT UPPER LOW/COLD
POOL ALOFT...REDUCED TO JUST A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
SE CA AT THIS HOUR. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SW AZ
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SE CA/SW AZ HAVE/WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...MAINLY
AOB 0.10 INCH...AS INDICATED ON THE LATEST SREF PLUMES. ALTHOUGH
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE BEING FORECASTED BY THE GFS/NAM MODELS
OVER THAT REGION.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO BEING FORECAST
THISEVENING BY THE HIGH-RES MODELS...AS MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WRAP
NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER...AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A COMBINATION OF THIS
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA
ITSELF...DUE TO UNFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE NORTHERLY
FLOW...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING DOWN IN THE 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE. A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN
REALLY FORCEFULLY BUT ENOUGH TO PUT US BACK INTO THE 80S. WINDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE GETTING FLATTENED OVER THE WEEKEND
BY A COUPLE OF WEAKENING TROUGHS. GFS STRONGER WITH IT THAN ECMWF
AND GEM. NAEFS POPS PRETTY MODEST. BUT WITH A FETCH OVER THE PACIFIC
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS SO THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES OVER JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE SWITCH
TO DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE LATER THAN NORMAL AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME BRIEF CIGS DOWN TO 4K FT ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KIPL...THOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 8K FT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...CB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 1230 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TODAY...DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL...AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY TO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANTICIPATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE
SOME MODEST COOLING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A BIT OF A BREAK THIS MORNING...AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT US THE GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MOVES OFF TO
THE NE...INTO WESTERN CO/EXTREME NORTHERN NM. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH
CLEARED FOR THE MOMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS
BEING REPORTED. SOME HAZINESS CAN BE SEEN IN THE SKY AS
WELL...LIKELY DUE TO LEFTOVER SUSPENDED DUST FROM YESTERDAY. OVER SE
CA AND SW AZ...WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER...WHICH IS NOW GENERATING
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS NOW MOVING INLAND
INTO THE LA BASIN...IS STILL FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...THEN INTO NORTHERN BAJA/SONORA LATER TONIGHT
AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA...ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ..WHERE
THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL MOVES A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THAT REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALONG
WITH THE SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS SE
CA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SW AZ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AGAIN POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS CONCERNED...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/HIGH-RES
FORECASTS...INHERITED FORECASTS SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TUESDAY...
THE NEXT LOW...WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS EVIDENT OVER AND NEAR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OCCURRING THERE...MAINLY
OFFSHORE...NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS A VERY STRONG JET...SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 185
KTS...CHARGING SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...THE
TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG. AS A RESULT THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO WITH THE JET AXIS REMAINING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...LESS SO OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
CHANCES GOING OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SREF CAPE PROBABILITIES INDICATE SOME MODEST CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
IT WILL GET WINDY AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THUS HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST/SAND AT TIMES AND ADDED THAT FOR TODAY
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY BUT WITH NORTHERLY ORIENTATION WHICH TENDS TO BE
LESS DUSTY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NICE DROP
TODAY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS BARELY REACHING 70 DEGREES...STAYING
BELOW THAT OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TEMPS
START TO CLIMB ON TUESDAY TO VERY NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD IN
REALLY FORCEFULLY BUT ENOUGH TO PUT US BACK INTO THE 80S. WINDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE GETTING FLATTENED OVER THE WEEKEND
BY A COUPLE OF WEAKENING TROUGHS. GFS STRONGER WITH IT THAN ECMWF
AND GEM. NAEFS POPS PRETTY MODEST. BUT WITH A FETCH OVER THE PACIFIC
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS SO THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES OVER JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE SWITCH
TO DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE LATER THAN NORMAL AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME BRIEF CIGS DOWN TO 4K FT ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KIPL...THOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 8K FT.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND
MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY...A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/AJ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...CB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 1005 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA
AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S-30S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 10-20 DEGS HIGHER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 5-15 DEGS COOLER
VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 07/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE
WAS 0.48 INCH...AN INCREASE OF NEARLY 0.15 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
THE COLUMN WAS NEARLY SATURATED IN THE 850-700 LAYER THOUGH WAS VERY
DRY FROM 700-400 MB. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS QUITE STABLE...WITH VERY
MINIMAL CAPE AND LI/S OF PLUS 1 TO 7 DEPENDING UPON THE LIFTING
METHOD. 07/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A 540 DM LOW CENTERED JUST
WEST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO CALIF BAY AREA...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
FROM SWRN NEW MEXICO NWWD INTO IDAHO. MODERATE WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

07/12Z NAM/GFS AND 07/00Z ECMWF/CMC DEPICT THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE
SEWD INTO SRN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND EWD
ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO TUE. 07/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM DEPICTED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EAST OF TUCSON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. 07/15Z HRRR WAS
SOMEWHAT FURTHER WEST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...WITH
INITIATION TO OCCUR SOUTH OF TUCSON BETWEEN 19Z-20Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THEN DEPICTED FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE CUMULOFORM CLOUD
FIELD SEEN FROM SE-SW OF TUCSON AT THIS TIME...THE HRRR MAY BE A
PREFERRED HI-RES SOLUTION.

AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST POPS/QPFS WERE UPDATED EARLIER
THIS MORNING FOR INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS RESPECTIVELY...
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE. THUS...ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED
TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TUE MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF
TUCSON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL TUE AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS AROUND
DAYBREAK TUE ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET...THEN SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 6000-6500 FEET BY TUE EVENING. STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE TO FOUR
INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET...THOUGH THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/18Z.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO SONORA MEXICO TUESDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
VICINITY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED -SHRA WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
SWLY/WLY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EAST ACROSS SONORA MEXICO TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SOME GUSTY WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST
OF TUCSON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /311 AM MST/...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO.
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...THE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING...THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE COLDEST SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

 141 PM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND DEVELOP HEAVY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. DRY
AND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ALONG COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY....WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
COAST...HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL CA...AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CA.
COMPOSITE RADAR DISPLAYED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A PRECIPITATION SUMMARY WAS ISSUED AROUND 1 PM...AND IS
HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. H500 TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -28 C THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST AREAS...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE HEAVY SNOWFALL AT
TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3500-4000 FT BY TONIGHT. THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...
3500 TO 4500 FT...1 TO 3 INCHES
4500 TO 6000 FT...3 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 6000 FT.....6 TO 10 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES

SEE THE PRODUCT SUMMARY BELOW FOR DETAILS ON TIMING OF THE WIND
ADVISORY AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE DRY WEATHER OVER
THE REGION...AND HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO 5 TO 10 DEG F
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. THE 07/1200 UTC ECMWF IS LEANING AWAY FROM
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SW CA...WHILE THE 07/1200 UTC GFS
NOW SHOWS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SW CA AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE MODELS DISAGREEING IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...KEPT THE CURRENT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A WET
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
072105Z...BKN-SCT CLOUD DECKS WITHIN THE 1000-15000 FT MSL
LAYER...WITH SCT EMBEDDED SHRA...POSSIBLE ISOL TSRA...CB TOPS TO
30000 FT MSL...AND MTN OBSCURATION...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08/0300
UTC MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH BKN-SCT CLOUD DECKS
WITHIN THE 5000-15000 FT MSL LAYER AND ISOL SHRA OVER THE DESERTS.
08/0300-0800 UTC...SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHING ALL AREAS WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECKS IN THE 1000-10000 FT MSL LAYER AND LOCAL MTN
OBSCURATION...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 7000-12000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS IN THE DESERTS. 08/0800-1500 UTC...FEW-SCT CLOUDS
1000-8000 FT MSL AND MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED VIS ALL AREAS.

A FEW GUSTS AT TAF SITES COULD EXCEED 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
MOUNTAIN WAVES IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS...LOCAL LLWS AND
ROTORS. REDUCED VIS IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
105 PM...A POWERFUL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS...HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 27 TO 33 KT...WITH
13 FOOT SEAS AT 15 SECONDS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WHILE THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTAINS DETAILS ON
THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS...LAXMWSSGX. THE GALE WARNING PROVIDES
THE DETAILS ON STORMY WINDS AND SEAS...LAXMWWSGX. NO ADDITIONAL
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
105 PM...VERY LARGE SURF WILL HIT THE BEACHES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURF...GUSTY WINDS...AND PROJECTED
HIGH TIDES OVER 6 FEET WILL THREATEN LOW-LYING AREAS WITH COASTAL
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF DAMAGING SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING
WILL DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING ALSO EXISTS
TODAY AT THE BEACHES. FOR DETAILS...CHECK THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY/WARNING...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...AND THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX...AS WELL AS THE SURF FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TUESDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
     60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 1129 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. FAIR SKIES AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN
NEXT LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BROUGHT THUNDER AND HIGH
WINDS ALONG WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING AND IT IS CURRENTLY
EXITING LA COUNTY. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING IN THE COLD AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE, SMALL HAIL, AND POWER OUTAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SO
FAR THIS MORNING. LIFTED INDEXES WILL FALL TO ABOUT -3 AND THERE
IS A CONTINUING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA
TODAY. CAPES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR SRN CA IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE AND THIS MUCH ENERGY IS ENOUGH PRODUCE MORE SMALL HAIL.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE...IN GENERAL...LESS THAN YDYS
RAIN BUT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM A FEW AREAS
WILL SEE MORE RAIN DUE TO TSTMS. IN GENERAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE
FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY TSTMS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE ALL SORTS OF WEATHER TO DEAL WITH AND ITS
A GOOD DAY TO AVOID MTN TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...LOW ENOUGH TO AFFECT TRAVELERS ON THE
GRAPEVINE. MANY AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 5 OR 10 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL AS LOW AS
4500 FEET. THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 60 MPH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE SNOW AND WINDS HAVE CREATED WINTER STORM WARNING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE VTA AND LA MTNS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SBA MTNS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS
SNOW ESP IN NON REMOTE AREAS AND WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
STRONG A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE MTNS (AS ARE THE SLO
COUNTY MTNS)

WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE COLD AIR POURS
IN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND OVER THE
SANTA MONICA MTNS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

THINGS WILL QUICKLY SETTLE DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY
AFFECT TRAVELERS ON THE I-5 CREATED BY THE NORTH UPSLOPE WINDS BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND MAX TEMPS WILL RISE. THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND PUT MAX TEMPS RIGHT BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

MORE RIDGING AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL COME IN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN
WITH MAX TEMPS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.


.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH IT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

FRIDAYS FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE MURKY AS THE MDLS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME NAILING DOWN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT HAS VARIED BY ABOUT 18 HOURS BOTH EARLIER AND LATER. RIGHT
NOW THE BEST GUESS FOR THE FRONT IS LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TOO BIG A SYSTEM AND MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN MAYBE A LITTLE MORE OVER SLO
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY IF THE SYSTEM HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING THAN IF THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLIER.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER NOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

BROAD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AND
WHILE THERE IS NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RAIN IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1800Z.

AT 1747Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO NOTABLE INVERSION.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...THE AREA NOW SITS UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE TERMINATING LATE THIS EVENING.

KLAX... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. NORTH
WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH CROSS WINDS TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.

KBUR... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. NORTH
WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH CROSS WINDS TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...07/900 AM.

A MODERATELY STRONG STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AND FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THEN A GALE WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...07/900 AM.

HIGH SURF WILL PEAK ON THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE SURF FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT SURF WILL EXCEED HIGH SURF WARNING CRITERIA OF 20
FEET ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND 15 FEET FOR FAVORED WEST-FACING
BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SURF WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE... AROUND
800 AM THIS MORNING... 900 PM THIS EVENING... AND 830 AM TUESDAY.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
      34>36-40. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      37-38-51. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONE
      39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      39-41-52-87. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONES 44>46-547. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 53-54. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONE
      59. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1018 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Main update was replacing the Winter Storm Warning with a Winter
Weather Advisory for the Sierra zones, and letting the advisory
expire for northeast CA-northwest NV. Lighter snow associated with
deformation zone will continue today but we are expecting fewer
travel impacts. Recent web cameras show wet roads on I-80 near
Donner Summit and US-50 near Echo Summit. Mono County has been
left dry so far this morning, but short range guidance has
indicated that the deformation zone will shift to that area by
early-mid afternoon. If this deformation area comes together as
projected, snow may persist a few hours into the evening near
Mammoth Lakes, although amounts are not likely to exceed 6
inches. MJD

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...

Upper low has slowed its east-southeast progress and remains just
off the central CA coast this morning. Just looking at the trends
from satellite and radar data leads one to believe the best
chance for any appreciable snow will be farther south into Mono
County through the day. But...the latest HRRR depictions show
precipitation developing across far western Nevada and northeast
California later this morning in response to the expected
deformation zone on the north and northeast side of the upper low.
If/when this happens we could see a period of accumulating snow
across the far northern part of the forecast area where
temperatures are closer to the freezing mark this morning and
relative humidity is higher. Farther south along the Sierra Front
the temperatures this morning area a little higher and there is a
little more dry air near the surface. This would produce wet
bulbing...but may not be sufficiently cold enough to allow any
accumulation as the morning wears on. So...even though we may see
snow across the Reno/Carson City area later this morning...it does
not appear now there will be sufficient accumulating snow to
maintain the winter weather advisory.

Snow amounts will be a little less in the the Tahoe basin as
well...but we will maintain the warning there for now given snow
that has already fallen and continuing travel difficulties.
Farther north there is still light snow falling in parts of
northeast california so we will let the advisory continue there as
well. In Mono County we expect redevelopment as this area will be
closer to the upper low today. The amounts may not be what we
originally forecast...but there should be some snow and travel
difficulties later this morning. 20

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

Storm pushing through the Sierra today may impact the morning
commute with snow covered roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
Tuesday will bring a brief break in the weather before the pattern
turns wet again midweek.

SHORT TERM...

Heavy snowfall continues in the Sierra early this morning as this
second winter storm pushes into the West Coast. Sierra passes have
been significantly impacted overnight with extensive travel delays,
chain controls, and even a temporary closure of Interstate 80 to
name a few incidents. For the latest on road conditions please
check with CalTrans, NDOT, or CHP.

Precipitation has not begun to spillover into western Nevada early
this morning, but high resolution simulations are indicating that
could occur sometime between 3AM and 6AM this morning. Forecast
model soundings are still indicating a very unstable atmosphere
with steep lapse rates that would be conducive to showers
developing. NAM/GFS are indicating that the area of deformation
may develop later, after 10AM, which would not be conducive to
snowfall accumulating on the roadways and therefore limiting
snowfall totals for Reno, Carson City, and Minden. Although totals
may be lower for the morning commute, drivers should be alert and
slow down as even wet roads will create slick driving conditions.

As the upper level trough drops south and east later this afternoon,
the flow turns north/northeast into the southern Sierra resulting in
moist upslope flow into Mono/Alpine counties. Wrap around bands
could result in a late afternoon burst of snow showers, especially
from Highway 50 south. With snowfall likely persisting through the
afternoon and into the evening, we decided to go ahead and extend
the Winter Storm Warning through 4PM. There is potential for
additional accumulations around 1 to 2 feet of snow above 7000 feet
through late this evening in Mono County. Please see the Winter
Storm Warning for details.

We are still anticipating a break in the weather on Tuesday as a
weak ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Tuesday night into
Wednesday, warm air advection precipitation starts to push into
far northern CA/NV with light precipitation possible mainly north
of Interstate 80. Models have continued to trend farther south
with this feature. With forecast model soundings showing an
isothermal layer for this time frame with the light precipitation,
we are expecting it to fall as snow with some light accumulations
possible especially north of Gerlach and Susanville. The light
snow accumulations could pose a problem for the Wednesday morning
commute as it would increase the chances for slick road
conditions. Weishahn

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

A few changes were made to pops in the extended forecast early on
with only minimal changes made after Friday. The model solutions
offer overall mild agreement in the long wave pattern as a broad
trough remains offshore through the extended period...but there is
little agreement in the details at this point regarding timing of
short waves rotating through the flow that would trigger periods of
precipitation. The extended looks to be a time of unsettled
weather...but whether that takes the form of rain or snow outside of
the higher elevations is quite literally up in the air at this point.

By Thursday the GFS is a little faster and farther south than the
ECMWF in bringing pcpn back to the region. This means lower snow
levels for the GFS as well. These differences extend into Friday as
the GFS moves the short wave through the region with pops
spreading across the CWA while the ECMWF holds the short wave back
to the west and almost gives it a negative tilt. This would slow
the entrance of pcpn into western Nevada until later Friday and
cause higher temperatures over the Basin and Range. The GEFS
ensembles show some minor support for this solution...but most
members are closer to the deterministic GFS. So the primary
changes were to bump pops up a bit over the far western CWA
Thursday and trim them back in the eastern CWA. Pops were lowered
in the far southeast CWA for Friday.

The ECMWF becomes almost zonal and much wetter than the GFS by late
Saturday. The GFS redevelops the long wave trough off the coast.
Again...these disparate solutions would have significant impacts to
pops...snow levels and temperatures. This extends into Sunday as the
GFS starts to eject another short wave and becomes much colder than
the ECMWF.

Overall there is a high likelihood that the extended period will
feature wet weather...but differences in the deterministic and
ensemble model solutions lead to a low confidence forecast regarding
any details. Will go with a very general forecast of the period this
cycle. 20

AVIATION...

Deep moisture plume and lift associated with the next short wave
trough and incoming upper level low will combine to produce snow
through the Sierra into the early afternoon while areas east and
north of the Sierra see a mix of rain and snow before turning to all
snow later today. Currently there is less precipitation making its
way over the Sierra as the mid level winds have become more
southerly. This will allow VFR conditions to hold on longer east of
the Sierra and even in some Sierra valleys through roughly daybreak.
As the upper low gets closer today...conditions should deteriorate
with snow accumulating on the Sierra runways up to as much as 6
inches through late morning and IFR conditions prevailing. East of
the Sierra the likelihood of accumulating snow is becoming far more
uncertain...but we could see a couple of inches at KCXP and KMEV
through 7/18 UTC. The lack of significant spillover is making
accumulations at KRNO far less likely...but they cannot be ruled out.

Occasional gusty winds will continue this morning up to 35kts from
the south. By late afternoon surface winds should shift to the
northwest for most locations. Lingering snow showers will bring
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions into the evening hours before the
showers taper off by daybreak Tuesday.

Another round of unsettled weather will return to the region
starting Wednesday and last through the week. 20


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 1007 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END
BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE NORTH
BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST MONDAY...KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION WITH A LARGER
BLOCK OF RAINFALL HEADING TOWARD OUR AREA. THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING OUR CWA. HRRR AND NAM
BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 1/10" FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH 1/4" TO 1/2"
FOR THE MAJORITY OF COASTAL RANGES. SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AROUND OUR REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SETS UP STARTING THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS JUST IN IS NOW TRENDING MORE TO THE IDEA
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING WHICH SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A
MULTIPLE WET SYSTEMS TO GO THROUGH FROM THAT POINT INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY POTENT AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA SINCE LAST EVENING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OFFSHORE...PRIMARILY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE PERSISTENT AND LONG-
LASTING HEAVY RAIN LIKE WHAT OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING
SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR URBAN
FLOODING SINCE SUNDAY EVENING...THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS OUR
REGION HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST. MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. SO IT`S LIKELY THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ALSO...URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY.
RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM
ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE HILLS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AND CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT ALL BUT A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH ALONG OUR
COAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOSTLY END BY EVENING AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SINK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AND FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TODAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY LATE TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.

THE COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE COOLEST INLAND VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CA BY TUESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...OR
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW FORECAST LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR TO
SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL THEN EITHER REMAIN REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (ECMWF) OR SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (GFS). IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF IT
REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:03 AM PST MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH OUR REGION TO AT LEAST 0Z ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND IS
FOR THEM TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. IN GENERAL,
DECIDED TO HANDLE IT WITH A VCSH INSTEAD OF TRYING TO GIVE EXACT
TIMES. CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR
WITH STRONGER CELLS. WINDS OF 270 TO 300 EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF MVFR WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WINDS INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT POSSIBLE FROM 0Z TO 05Z. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE BEFORE 0Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. WINDS
FORECAST TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KT FROM 250 TO 270 20Z TO 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:12 AM PST MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 15 TO 18 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14
SEC. WESTERLY SWELL MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:35 AM PST MONDAY...NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATER LATE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING STEEP WIND DRIVEN WAVES ON TOP OF A BUILDING
WESTERLY SWELL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS SAN
FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...SF BAY

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BFG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 840 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END
BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE NORTH
BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST MONDAY...KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION WITH A LARGER
BLOCK OF RAINFALL HEADING TOWARD OUR AREA. THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING OUR CWA. HRRR AND NAM
BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 1/10" FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH 1/4" TO 1/2"
FOR THE MAJORITY OF COASTAL RANGES. SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AROUND OUR REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SETS UP STARTING THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS JUST IN IS NOW TRENDING MORE TO THE IDEA
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING WHICH SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A
MULTIPLE WET SYSTEMS TO GO THROUGH FROM THAT POINT INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY POTENT AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA SINCE LAST EVENING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OFFSHORE...PRIMARILY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE PERSISTENT AND LONG-
LASTING HEAVY RAIN LIKE WHAT OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING
SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR URBAN
FLOODING SINCE SUNDAY EVENING...THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS OUR
REGION HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST. MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. SO IT`S LIKELY THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ALSO...URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY.
RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM
ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE HILLS. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AND CURRENT WINDS SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT ALL BUT A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID-MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH ALONG OUR
COAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND MOSTLY END BY EVENING AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SINK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...AND FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET TODAY AS A COLDER
AIRMASS SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY LATE TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.

THE COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPS BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE COOLEST INLAND VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CA BY TUESDAY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...OR
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW FORECAST LIGHT
RAIN TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR TO
SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL THEN EITHER REMAIN REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (ECMWF) OR SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (GFS). IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF IT
REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK THE BOUNDARY EAST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE PRECIPITATION LIKELY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:03 AM PST MONDAY...TOUGH FORECAST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT A SFC LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY
AREA AS WELL. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AND WILL SO
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS WILL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON PRECIP.
THE TOUGHEST CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS. EXPECTING
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH CIGS
3500-5000 FT. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITH A PASSING SHOWER. TOUGHER
FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN THE WINDS. SE TO W WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AS THE SFC LOW TO N MOVES S. HEDGED BETS FOR MORE
SW...BUT OCCASIONAL SE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP THIS AM. DO EXPECT MORE
WESTERLY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SPEEDS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...DESPITE RAIN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 04:12 AM PST MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 15 TO 18 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14
SEC. WESTERLY SWELL MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG SOUTH OF POINT SUR WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
WESTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY TODAY BEFORE
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS
             SCA...SF BAY
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1236 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPDATED TO DELETE HEADLINES FOR CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EASTERN UT AND SW CO. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED
OVER BOTH AREAS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 700 MB LOW CENTER MOVED TO NORTHEAST CO AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS SLIDING NORTHEAST WITH IT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. COLDER AIR
SLOWLY FILLING INTO THE REGION AS SFC FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. LATE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS AS RESULT...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VALUE INCLUDES SNOW
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...SO ANOTHER 2 TO 4 TODAY. SNOW LEVELS
RUNNING IN THE 5-6K RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LEVEL OUT NEAR 6K BY
MID MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR VARY BY A LARGE
MARGIN WITH THE BIGGEST WINNER SO FAR BEING PARK RESERVOIR UP ON
THE GRAND MESA WHICH IS CLIMBING PAST THE FOOT MARK WITH A SIMPLE
10 TO 1 RATIO. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET A BETTER
LOOK AT WEBCAMS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO ITS COLD PHASE AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND
SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN END OUTPACING ITS
NORTHERN PORTION. A VORT LOBE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE FAR CORNER OF
NORTHWEST CO BY 15Z WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL CO. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE LONGER OVER THE CO PORTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ENERGY WILL
REMAIN REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO THE ELK HEAD AND NORTHERN PARK RANGES SHOULD PICK UP
THEIR BEST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AS OUR STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS
SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND THE
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM TRACK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERED THE
COOLING IN THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN
FEATURE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO MEXICO AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THIS LOW...THUS PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON OUR FORECAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ENERGY OUT TO OUR
WEST...BUT EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO OUR AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROLLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT THEN CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

ILS BREAKPOINTS HAVE BEEN REACHED FOR MANY AIRPORTS THIS MORNING
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH HAS IMPROVED GREATLY WHILE SOME
LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND OCCNL RAIN CONTINUES FOR KVEL. THESE CLOUDS
WILL START LIFTING AFTER 20Z. CLOUDS WILL START LIFTING BETWEEN
23Z TO 02Z ALONG THE CO/UT BORDER TO INCLUDE KGJT KRIL KMTJ AND
POSSIBLY KTEX WHILE KASE AND KEGE WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A
FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS BUT NOT SURE IT WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-010-012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009.

UT...&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1038 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. COLDER AIR
SLOWLY FILLING INTO THE REGION AS SFC FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. LATE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS AS RESULT...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VALUE INCLUDES SNOW
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...SO ANOTHER 2 TO 4 TODAY. SNOW LEVELS
RUNNING IN THE 5-6K RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LEVEL OUT NEAR 6K BY
MID MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR VARY BY A LARGE
MARGIN WITH THE BIGGEST WINNER SO FAR BEING PARK RESERVOIR UP ON
THE GRAND MESA WHICH IS CLIMBING PAST THE FOOT MARK WITH A SIMPLE
10 TO 1 RATIO. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET A BETTER
LOOK AT WEBCAMS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO ITS COLD PHASE AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND
SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN END OUTPACING ITS
NORTHERN PORTION. A VORT LOBE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE FAR CORNER OF
NORTHWEST CO BY 15Z WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL CO. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE LONGER OVER THE CO PORTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ENERGY WILL
REMAIN REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO THE ELK HEAD AND NORTHERN PARK RANGES SHOULD PICK UP
THEIR BEST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AS OUR STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS
SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND THE
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM TRACK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERED THE
COOLING IN THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN
FEATURE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO MEXICO AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THIS LOW...THUS PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON OUR FORECAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ENERGY OUT TO OUR
WEST...BUT EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO OUR AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROLLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT THEN CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

ILS BREAKPOINTS HAVE BEEN REACHED FOR MANY AIRPORTS THIS MORNING
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH HAS IMPROVED GREATLY WHILE SOME
LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND OCCNL RAIN CONTINUES FOR KVEL. THESE CLOUDS
WILL START LIFTING AFTER 20Z. CLOUDS WILL START LIFTING BETWEEN
23Z TO 02Z ALONG THE CO/UT BORDER TO INCLUDE KGJT KRIL KMTJ AND
POSSIBLY KTEX WHILE KASE AND KEGE WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A
FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS BUT NOT SURE IT WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-010-012-013-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023-
     025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1029 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

TODAYS STORM IS MOVING SLOWER THE MODELS PREDICTED YESTERDAY AND
LAST NIGHT. IT ALSO STRENGTHENED MORE THAN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
CO WHICH PRODUCE MORE PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH
THROUGH WEST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER NE UT AND CENTRAL AND SW CO.
HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. COLDER AIR
SLOWLY FILLING INTO THE REGION AS SFC FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. LATE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS AS RESULT...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VALUE INCLUDES SNOW
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...SO ANOTHER 2 TO 4 TODAY. SNOW LEVELS
RUNNING IN THE 5-6K RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LEVEL OUT NEAR 6K BY
MID MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR VARY BY A LARGE
MARGIN WITH THE BIGGEST WINNER SO FAR BEING PARK RESERVOIR UP ON
THE GRAND MESA WHICH IS CLIMBING PAST THE FOOT MARK WITH A SIMPLE
10 TO 1 RATIO. MORE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET A BETTER
LOOK AT WEBCAMS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO ITS COLD PHASE AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS.

THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND
SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
THEN ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN END OUTPACING ITS
NORTHERN PORTION. A VORT LOBE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE FAR CORNER OF
NORTHWEST CO BY 15Z WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL CO. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE LONGER OVER THE CO PORTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ENERGY WILL
REMAIN REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO THE ELK HEAD AND NORTHERN PARK RANGES SHOULD PICK UP
THEIR BEST SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY.

BY EVENING...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD TO THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AS OUR STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN DIVIDE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS
SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND THE
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM TRACK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERED THE
COOLING IN THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN
FEATURE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO MEXICO AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH THIS LOW...THUS PLAYING SOME HAVOC ON OUR FORECAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ENERGY OUT TO OUR
WEST...BUT EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN SHIFTING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO OUR AREA. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROLLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT THEN CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ILS OR WORSE CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-010-012-013-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ009.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023-
     025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1150 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Weakening short-wave trough is currently lifting into northern
Illinois, accompanied by scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. 16z/10am radar imagery shows the bulk of the precip
has shifted east of the I-57 corridor, with dry conditions noted
further west across the Illinois River Valley. Latest HRRR
continues to show the showers quickly shifting off to the east
into Indiana over the next couple of hours, with all precip coming
to an end across the KILX CWA by 19-20z. Have updated PoPs to
better reflect current trends. Once the showers end, mostly
cloudy, breezy, and very warm conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the day. Southerly winds will gust to between 20 and
30 mph, while afternoon high temperatures climb well into the
60s. May even see a few lower 70s across the SW around
Jacksonville. Updated forecast has already been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Satellite images indicate an elongated wave will affect central
Illinois over the next 12 to 15 hours. The latest HRRR and RAP
guidance point towards periodic waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms progressing from SW to NE, with most areas seeing
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Instability params
are relatively weak, so convection should remain isolated for the
most part this morning, but a couple of hail reports can not be
ruled out.

Showers should depart to the northeast later this afternoon, as the
wave shifts east of the area. Clouds will still dominate the skies
through the day, but strong southerly winds will help boost high
temps well above normal. Temps should climb into the mid 60s north
of I-74, with low 70s near and west of Jacksonville. Momentum
from a 50-60kt LLJ will mix toward the surface today, producing
wind gusts of 35 mph at times, especially east of I-55 under the
strongest LLJ winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern remains with the heavy rain potential for the middle of
the week. Steady plume of moisture expected to stream northward out
of the southern Gulf of Mexico and into central Illinois, with
precipitable water values reaching around 1.2 inches by Tuesday
evening and over 1.5 inches by Wednesday evening, close to
climatological maximum for this time of year. Latest model runs
continue to shift the heaviest axis of precipitation a bit further
northwest, focusing on around 2 inches of QPF through Thursday night
from near the I-55 corridor west to the Illinois River. However,
this is not locked in stone yet, as there continues to be some
fluctuations in the frontal position midweek.

Upper trough currently off the Washington/Oregon coast will dig
significantly today along the West Coast, closing off an upper low
by evening over southern California. The track of this low is not
being handled the best by the models, with earlier projections of it
remaining over Mexico through the week now basically limited to just
the ECMWF model. The other models lift it into southwest Texas as
early as Wednesday night, with the ECMWF about 24 hours slower. A
sharpening upper trough will dig just east of the Rockies and keep
the southwest upper flow over the Midwest into Thursday, largely
keeping the upper low cut off until the weekend. This results in the
frontal boundary not fully going through the forecast area until
later Thursday.

Leading up to that point, a good chunk of tonight is looking to be
dry, with the showers developing in the richer moisture feed west of
the Mississippi River this evening, before shifting east overnight.
Highest PoP`s will mainly be over the Illinois River valley with
slight chances as far east as I-55. Eastern CWA likely to remain dry
until late Tuesday afternoon. Categorical PoP`s focused from about
Decatur northwest Tuesday night before shifting eastward, as a wave
of low pressure rides northeast along the front. Have lingered 80%
PoP`s into Thursday morning over the southeast CWA.

In the longer range, the handling of the upper low late week leads
to significant differences in returning the front and associated
precipitation shield northward. Have tried to follow the slower
solution offered by the ECMWF, but overall confidence in the rain
forecast that far out is rather low at this point.

Temperatures expected to remain well above normal through the week,
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the 18z TAF period.
Short-wave trough responsible for the showers earlier this morning
has now lifted into the southern Great Lakes, with lingering light
rain showers now confined to areas east of the I-57 corridor. VFR
ceilings of around 5000ft are common in its wake, although
visible satellite imagery is showing some large breaks in the
overcast upstream across Missouri. Think these breaks will fill
in, leading to a mostly cloudy but dry afternoon/evening. Next
wave will approach from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday
morning, spreading low clouds and showers back into the area.
Based on NAM forecast soundings, light rain and MVFR ceilings may
develop after 13/14z at the western terminals. Have lowered
ceilings accordingly, but have maintained VFR ceilings further
east at KDEC and KCMI through 18z. Winds will be strong/gusty from
the south through the entire period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 353 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CA/
NORTHERN BAJA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS DRIFTING E
OVER EASTERN CO. DOWNSTAIRS A DRY LINE CURVED FROM AROUND KHLC THRU
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN KPTT & KDDC TO JUST W OF KGAG. ACROSS THE KICT
NEIGHBORHOOD...SLY 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT MID &
UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) EXTREME FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL ALONG & W OF K-14 UNTIL 7 PM CST.
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG & JUST E OF DRY LINE THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT:
THE FIRST 2 ISSUES ARE THE RED FLAG WARNING & WIND ADVISORY THAT
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS & MOST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG & W OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STRUGGLING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREAS WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAGS HOISTED AS SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN STIFF THIS EVENING.
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SW FLANK OF OUR CWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OVER COMANCHE...BARBER & PRATT
COUNTIES ~6 PM. FOR NOW THE CAP LOCATED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER IS
TIGHT OVER OUR SWRN-MOST COUNTIES...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE FROM
EASTERN OK TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/SD BORDER A "PACIFIC"
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TOWARD CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
THE GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST
KS.

TUE-WED NIGHT:
AS THE FAR SWRN MID-UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK E TOWARD THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN W TX/TX
PANHANDLE REGION. THE FRONT WOULD STALL THEN UNDERGO WARM FRONTO-
GENESIS ON TUE. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING N THEN NW ACROSS EASTERN KS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING FURTHER INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. AS THE SFC CYCLONE PUSHES E ACROSS E TX...WIDESPREAD
RAINS WOULD WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE WITH SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN
THE BENEFICIARY OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREE ON IT`S TRACK WITH GFS FURTHER N
OVER E TX THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT POSITIONED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE. THIS WOULD OF COURSE HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW. CONSIDERING THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE
GULF TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SLOWER ECMWF IS PREFERRED. AS
SUCH WRAP-AROUND RAINS WOULD SPREAD FURTHER W ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH SOMEWHAT OF ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE GREATER UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

STRATUS WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. WHILE MAINLY MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SOME LOCALES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO A PERIOD OF IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL EXIST TOWARD 00Z
ALONG THE DRY-LINE IN CENTRAL KANSAS...A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ELEVATED STORMS WILL EXIST LATER
TONIGHT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MERGES
WITH THE DRYLINE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THE CONTINUED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER INDICES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE WORK-WEEK. WILL HOWEVER
KEEP THE RED FLAGS HOISTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135
UNTIL 7 PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  67  48  63 /  30  50  40  20
HUTCHINSON      53  67  45  64 /  20  30  30  10
NEWTON          55  66  47  62 /  20  40  40  20
ELDORADO        56  67  49  63 /  40  60  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  67  50  64 /  40  70  50  30
RUSSELL         45  66  40  63 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      45  66  41  63 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          53  68  44  64 /  20  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       53  66  44  62 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  69  54  64 /  50  80  70  50
CHANUTE         58  69  52  64 /  50  80  70  40
IOLA            58  67  52  63 /  50  80  70  40
PARSONS-KPPF    59  68  53  64 /  50  80  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. KENTUCKY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING IN WARMER
AIR AND SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. THIS RISE WAS DESPITE
ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY AS A HIGH LAYER OF RATHER THICK CLOUDS
MOVED OVER THE STATE. AT 3 PM...READINGS HAD MADE IT TO THE LOW
AND MID 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OR SO.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL AGREE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING DEEP AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...KEEPING THE RIDGE STRONG OVER
THE AREA LONGER. KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM MEANING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR OUR AREA. WHILE SOME SHORTWAVES...LIKE THE ONE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...THE
STRONGER ONES WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED
SOLUTION WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THEY THIN AND BREAK UP HEADING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS...AND SOME MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...
SHOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAY THIS MORNING. EVEN SO...IN
GENERAL...A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MORE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS WITH LESSER DIFFERENCES ELSEWHERE. AGAIN
WOULD EXPECT THE DIURNAL T CURVE TO BE SHARP AFTER SUNSET FOR
THESE VALLEYS AS THEY QUICKLY DROP OFF. TUESDAY WILL BE AN EVEN
NICER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TAKING OFF TO THE LOW AND MID 70S BY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER RELATIVE TERRAIN BASED TEMPERATURE SPLIT...MORE
SIGNIFICANT IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE
FOR FOG EITHER NIGHT.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TONIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DISTINCTION...ESPECIALLY
EAST. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY KEPT THEM ZEROED OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TIMING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO WANT TO BUDGE. IN FACT...THE
FEATURE THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS THE HIGH EAST IS SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF DROPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIP THROUGH KENTUCKY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ULTIMATELY FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. SO...UNTIL THESE MODELS
CAN LATCH ONTO THE FEATURE COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EVOLUTION OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS...EXPECT CONTINUED DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR
SUPERBLEND WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER CONSISTS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. DECENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND
ITSELF TO WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 OR
20 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TAF STIES...INCLUDING
SYM...SME...AND LOZ. THESE WINDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A RISK FOR LLWS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH...OWING TO WINDS ZIPPING ALONG JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WHILE THE BULK OF THE AREA DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL
THEN RESUME TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND DIRECTION AS TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 120 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST T/TD/SKY OBS AND
TRENDS INTO THEIR PERSPECTIVE GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP TODAY
AS A RESULT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE DESPITE AN AMPLE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE STATE. CURRENTLY...READINGS
ARE REBOUNDING FROM CHILLY VALLEY LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHILE THE MILDER RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS
HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ATTM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS FOR T/TD GRIDS AS WELL AS FINE TUNING THE SKY GRIDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

CONDITIONS REMAIN CALM ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. AS
WE CONTINUE TO SIT UNDER A STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE VARIED QUITE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN THE VALLEYS
AND THE RIDGES. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED
IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT INVERSION TO LESSON AND THESE
DIFFERENCES TO MITIGATE THEMSELVES AS TEMPERATURES WARM. A DENSER SHIELD
OF HIGHER CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGES FROM
THE ONGOING TEMP FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SAVED
AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
HERE AT JKL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS A
WAVE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY PASSING NE ACROSS WESTERN KY...WHICH HAS
DIRECTED SOME MOISTURE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE FOR THE
CWA. THIS...COUPLED WITH A SHARP NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION...HAS
CONTINUED TO CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES WITH
ELEVATION. EXPECT THIS RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BETTER MIXING TAKES
HOLD AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE A
STRONGHOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT BOWLING BALLS SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
BARREL ESE-WARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE
DEEPENING NATURE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY WORK TO AMPLIFY
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES THE
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. BY TUESDAY EVENING...KY WILL FIND ITSELF
TRANSITIONING TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND STARTING TO
TAP INTO SOME OF THE STRONGER SW TO NE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD...THE STRONG RIDGING IN
PLACE IN ADDITION TO WARM SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM DISTURBANCES PASSING WEST AND NORTH
OF THE REGION. THE AIRMASS IN PLACE IS VERY DRY HOWEVER...SO STILL
LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL RH AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WHEN DECENT MIXING COULD PULL SOME
IMPRESSIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RIGHT NOW MOST
LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE RH LEVELS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULDN/T RULE OUT SOME RH IN THE
TEENS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON IF ANY HIGHER GUSTS
RESULT IN DEW POINT MIX DOWNS. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR TONIGHT NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP IT FROM
BEING AS EXTREME.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT MUCH IN THE SAME AS TODAY...THOUGH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM FURTHER
INTO THE LOW 70S. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY STARTS ITS TRANSITION
EASTWARD...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE THIS OVERALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER FOR THE DAY...IT WILL AT LEAST KEEP RH LEVELS SLIGHTLY MORE
AT BAY...IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM MUCH OF FAR EASTERN
KY...INCREASING AS YOU HEAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENTRENCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF TEXAS INTO THE APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOWLY
MIGRATING UPPER LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. RAINFALL CHANCES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STEMMING FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE DELAYED IN THEIR ARRIVAL THIS WEEK AS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW HOLDS INFLUENCE LOCALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT DIGGING AND SLOW
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SAID UPPER DISTURBANCE.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND POINTS EAST...AS GULF MOISTURE
SLOWLY BENDS EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JOURNEYING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. STUBBORN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MID
TO SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ATLANTIC COAST MAY VERY WELL KEEP THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS DRY UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
COMMONWEALTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INTERACTION/PHASING OF THIS
FEATURE WITH INITIAL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THIS PERIOD MAY POTENTIALLY SEE THE MOST VIGOROUS LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WITHOUT A PLETHORA OF EARLIER DAY RAIN...THUS
MAINTAINING A BETTER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO AS PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CREATE TOO STRONG OF A CAP TO PUNCH
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS
HUNG UP AND WASHED OUT WELL OFF TO THE NORTH.

A WARM FRONT BRINGING BONAFIDE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD
BET AT SOME POINT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT ISSUES
RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN UPPER LOW PRECLUDE
PINPOINTING THIS AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY ALSO VERY
WELL BE A NUMBER OF PERIODS CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL
DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS BECOME BETTER VISUALIZED LATER INTO
THIS WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH DOES HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE A CERTAINTY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S
FROM MID-LATE WEEK BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT THICK MID CLOUD COVER REMAINS
SUPPRESSED WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RIVAL NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. DECENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND
ITSELF TO WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 OR
20 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TAF STIES...INCLUDING
SYM...SME...AND LOZ. THESE WINDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A RISK FOR LLWS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH...OWING TO WINDS ZIPPING ALONG JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WHILE THE BULK OF THE AREA DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL
THEN RESUME TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND DIRECTION AS TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1138 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

An upper-level impulse has been producing some weak echoes as it
moves northeast along the northwest periphery of the region, and
recent HRRR runs are showing a bit more coverage in our forecast
area, especially along I-64 in southern Illinois just after
12z. Went ahead and added in isolated showers in that area through
around 15Z.

South winds have begun gusting into the teens over western portions
of the area and temperatures have been climbing into/through the
50s in the last couple of hours. See little reason for
temperatures to fall much from current levels, which means a
warmer start to the day than previously expected. All of the cloud
cover will be in the mid and upper-levels, so with some
insolation expected, highs today should climb to near 70 over much
of the region. We may not be warm enough, if the sun can pop out
for awhile anywhere.

The south winds will increase and become quite gusty, with 30-35
mph gusts possible. Guidance has been pretty consistent here, but
current VWPs from area radars show 60-65kts of southwest flow at
925mb. Certainly won`t be surprised if gusts are greater than
forecast, especially if/where the sun pops out and causes better
mixing.

Tonight should be a near repeat of this morning with persistent
south winds and plenty of cloud cover. Definitely playing the warm
side of guidance for lows.

As for the rain event, the 00Z models continue to trend slower
with the onset and northeastward spread of the more widespread
showers. The 00Z 4km WRF runs keep the entire area dry through the
day Tuesday, which is very similar to the 00Z NAM. Backed PoPs
down to slight chance/chance levels and confined them to southeast
Missouri on Tuesday afternoon.

A couple of swaths of showers will eventually pass north northeast
through southeast Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. But even
this activity will be moving along, so QPF amounts will be
stunted a bit. Model soundings still are not showing much
instability, so thunderstorms still appear to be limited. The
flood potential through Wednesday is definitely trending downward
even in southeast Missouri.

Will confine likely to categorical PoPs Tuesday night to southeast
Missouri, and then spread them into southern Illinois Wednesday.
Not sure if portions of west Kentucky or southwest Indiana will
get wet at all through the end of the day Wednesday.

With the drier trend Tuesday through Wednesday, also have trended
warmer with temperatures. There are likely to be lots of lower and
middle 70s for highs over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Models are in good agreement showing the cold front extending from
the southern Great Lakes region into southwest Missouri at 12z
Thursday.  ECMWF then pushes the front just south of our region by
12z Friday, while GFS and the Canadian hang the front across the PAH
forecast area.  Models have varied quite a bit over the last several
runs of just how far south the front will move and how quickly it
will come back north, but have agreed in the overall trend of moving
moving the axis of greatest QPF a little farther west.  Widespread
showers will spread east across the region Wednesday night and
continue through Thursday into Thursday night.  Models differences
lower confidence somewhat as we get into Friday and through the
weekend, but all show showers continuing, but the focus of highest
QPF differs.  Went with likely precipitation south to chance north
on Friday, then kept precipitation in the chance category Friday
night and through the weekend.

Most significant QPF in the long term will be Wednesday night into
Thursday, with 1 to 2 inch totals possible in that 24 hour period
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far west Kentucky,
with lesser amounts to the east.  The Ozark foothills may see
slightly higher amounts.  After Thursday, QPF amounts will drop off
quite a bit, though again with the uncertainty in the models, the
timing and amounts will need continued adjustments.  Also, although
the instability remains unimpressive, any thunderstorms that develop
could produce some heavier rainfall amounts.  The best chances of
thunderstorms will be mostly across the southern half of the PAH
forecast area.

Temperatures will remain incredibly warm through the extended, with
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals, and
overnight lows 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1138 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

Main concern this afternoon will be the south winds gusting to
around 25-30 kts. Mid-level cigs will continue through the
period. Sfc Winds will decrease to around 10 kts this
evening/overnight, which combined with winds of around 50 kts
around 2000ft should lead to LLWS developing at all terminals
again. Models hinting at low level moisture working in from the
W/SW which will likely lead to MVFR cigs developing at KCGI by
morning and possibly during the overnight hrs. KPAH should see low
VFR cigs by morning and some potential at MFVR cigs developing
there as well. South winds will increase again by mid morning with
gusts up around 20 kts.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 401 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND HELP PUSH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT INCREASING DEW POINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE ALSO
EXPECT SOME -DZ TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE E-
SE FLOW. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ESPECIALLY NOTED ON 300K
SFC...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL EVEN KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING TO 8C OR GREATER OVER CENTRAL MN. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WEST HALF AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATING FROM LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER EAST HALF...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...

LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED S OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTN/EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW/KCMX
WILL LEAD TO VLIFR BY LATE EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
MORNING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS
SHOULDN`T FALL BLO IFR TONIGHT AND SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT LATE WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 128 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT IS NOW S OF JAMES BAY. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO FAR...LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS MODELS STRONGLY ADVERTISED 24HRS AGO. SOME
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...BUT VIS IS MOSTLY 3-5SM. A BIT BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRATUS IS SURGING S ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
AND HAS RECENTLY REACHED THE NRN SHORE OF THE LAKE E OF THUNDER BAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 3-4MB/3HR PRES RISES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. FRONT
SHOULD END UP JUST S OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. ITS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR S THE TRAILING STRATUS WILL MOVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEERING FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT...THE
LATEST RAP PROBABLY HAS THE EDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -DZ GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ THERE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER AS DEVELOPING E TO SE WINDS OCCUR LATER AND
WON`T HAVE AS MUCH OF A LAKE MODIFIED COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 40S E AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE WI BORDER. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE INTERIOR W HALF.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED S TODAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH BECOME QUITE STEEP ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8.5C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND EVEN
ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT SOME -DZ TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...

LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED S OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTN/EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW/KCMX
WILL LEAD TO VLIFR BY LATE EVENING AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
MORNING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS
SHOULDN`T FALL BLO IFR TONIGHT AND SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE TUE
MORNING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT IS NOW S OF JAMES BAY. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SO FAR...LOW STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS MODELS STRONGLY ADVERTISED 24HRS AGO. SOME
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...BUT VIS IS MOSTLY 3-5SM. A BIT BEHIND
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STRATUS IS SURGING S ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
AND HAS RECENTLY REACHED THE NRN SHORE OF THE LAKE E OF THUNDER BAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AS LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 3-4MB/3HR PRES RISES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. FRONT
SHOULD END UP JUST S OF THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTN. ITS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR S THE TRAILING STRATUS WILL MOVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS VEERING FROM
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT...THE
LATEST RAP PROBABLY HAS THE EDGE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF -DZ GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ THERE.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE...MAINLY
TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER AS DEVELOPING E TO SE WINDS OCCUR LATER AND
WON`T HAVE AS MUCH OF A LAKE MODIFIED COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 40S E AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE WI BORDER. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE INTERIOR W HALF.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED S TODAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH BECOME QUITE STEEP ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8.5C/KM AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA AND EVEN
ISOLD TSRA SPREADING NE INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT SOME -DZ TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...

LOWS AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF S-SW WINDS AT THE SFC STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
STARTING PRIOR TO 06Z. STILL EXPECTING THE SFC LOW SET UP 00Z
TUESDAY NIGHT NW OF ISLE ROYALE TO MOVE JUST SE OF JAMES BY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. FCST MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH TO DIVIDE THE CWA
AS WE ENTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE OUT OF
THE W AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING LINGERING FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT WHILE THE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF UPPER MI...WILL BE
THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE N SFC LOW EXITS INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOWER MI...EXTENDING TO A LOW
RIDING UP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE S-MID MS VALLEY. ASSISTED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
S CENTRAL. JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE BACK N
WILL BE THE QUESTION THURSDAY 09-18Z. WHILE THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z
ECMWF KEEP PRECIP REGULATED MAINLY TO OUR SE...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR TO OUR ONGOING FCST. WILL RUN WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEEDED
FOR AS MUCH SLIGHT CHANCE MIXED PRECIP /-S/-R/-ZR/ THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB TROUGH TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING THE RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LINGERING
PRECIP TO EXIT AS THE SFC LOW GETS PUSHED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRIDAY. WE COULD BRIEFLY GET BACK TO 0 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 850MB TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE E HALF OF ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F /BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI/.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT E. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE CURRENT 500MB
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CANADA THROUGH S CANADA CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW OVER MEXICO MID WEEK...AND THEN EJECTS N OVER TX FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING FROM
MO AT 18Z SATURDAY...WITH THE 500MB LOW OPENING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...BRINGING AN AVERAGE 0.25IN OF PRECIP
ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST SATES...BEFORE HAVING IT MORE NE SATURDAY NIGHT
/DRY ACROSS OUR AREA/. SO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNECES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION...WITH MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING TO OUR SE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT KCMX IN
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. AT
KSAW...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
MID MORNING. COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE AFTN/EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW/KCMX WILL LEAD TO VLIFR BY
LATE EVENING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT KIWD...CONDITIONS
SHOULDN`T FALL BLO IFR TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO THE S THIS MORNING...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WRN LAKE (GUSTS TO 25-30KT) DUE TO
ENHANCEMENT FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. EXPECT EASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE S ON TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NRN MN ON ITS WAY INTO NRN
ONTARIO TUE NIGHT. IN THIS SCENARIO...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SO
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...DOWN TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT...BUT EVEN OVER
THE ERN LAKE...GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NO MORE THAN 20KT. WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING TO 15-25KT FOR A TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT WED/THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 1155 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

ISSUED AN EARLIER QUICK UPDATE FOR SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MORNING.
GUIDANCE/MOS COMPLETELY OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY. 12Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWED EARLIER 6KFT LAYER WHICH HAS COMPLETELY VANISHED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AN INCREASED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS INTO THE STRAITS
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK VORTICITY
IN A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK NE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE THOUGHT HERE...IS FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS. ALSO...DRYING COULDN`T HAVE BEEN TOO
SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE SRN CWA. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT TOO BAD
STILL AT 6-6.5 C/KM AND THE ARRIVAL OF RENEWED LOW TO MID LEVEL
WAA AND CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS POPPING OFF. FORCING IS
VERY WEAK HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF JET SUPPORT...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME MOISTURE POOLING...SEEN VIA LATEST RUC PWATS...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
MANISTEE AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER...WITH 40S IN
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NRN LAKE HURON WITH
AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT/POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...STILL GETTING WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WX POTENTIAL...NONE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WERE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND EAST
OF HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONT CONNECTING THE TWO WAS
MOVING SE-WARD ACROSS SUPERIOR. A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAS AIDING SHRA (AND EVEN TSRA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT) DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF LOWER MI AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI...THEN STALL AND
WASH OUT...OVERWHELMED BY A WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR
CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL SEE A RELATIVE LULL DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT.

TODAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. THE
AXIS OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH 500MB TEMPS RISING FROM -21C TO -17C. THAT WILL SHUT THE
DOOR ON CONVECTION AS WE MOVE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A
PROCESS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN NW SECTIONS. MAY NEED A MENTION OF EARLY-
MORNING SHRA IN S CENTRAL AND SE SECTIONS...BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF
NORTHERN MI WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE OTHER POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE IN EASTERN UPPER LATE. THOUGH THE
STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING...IT WILL STILL BE PRESENT...
JUST AS SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
RETURNS STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-750MB LAYER...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SHALLOWISH MOIST CONVECTION TO OCCUR. INCREASED THETA-E
ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
UPPER MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS...AND WILL REMAIN...SOUPY. A HIGH STRATOCU
DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTIONS ARE SE
SECTIONS (ABOUT TO BE IMPACTED BY REMNANT CONVECTION) AND EASTERN
UPPER. EASTERN UPPER LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD EMPHATICALLY CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. IN NORTHERN LOWER...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BE
GENERALLY PREVALENT...BUT WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.

BALMY MAX TEMPS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH A SURGE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVING AS THE RIDGING ALOFT
FLATTENS. ACTUALLY NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF PRECIP UPSTREAM PER
MODEL TRENDS...IT DEVELOPS OVER OUR HEADS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
PRIMARILY COME TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI IN THE EVENING...
LIFTING INTO FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT. WILL BE
BOOSTING POPS TO THE HIGH LIKELYS OR CATEGORICAL. LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP ALOFT...DON/T THINK WE RUN THE RISK OF THUNDER
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...THE MID-LEVELS DRY ABOVE
800MB BUT STAY QUITE MOIST BELOW. SO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE TRENDING SHARPLY HIGHER (SPIKING INTO THE 40S IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER) AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER ICE/SNOW/COLD LAKES/COLD GROUND WILL BE FOG-
PRONE. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

(3/8)TUESDAY...AS THE SFC LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO
ONTARIO, NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR, MOST OF THE FORCING WILL CONTINUE
WITH IT, AND A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH THE MAIN SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MORNING, WITH SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON, JUST
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS IN TEXAS AND BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE
FRONT/SFC TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SET UP, PUMPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO MICHIGAN, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM
FLOW WILL KEEP US WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE-WISE (NORMAL HIGHS
MID TO UPPER 30S) AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WISE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER, BUT THE CHANCE IS PRETTY
LOW AT THIS POINT, AS THE MODELS POINT TO THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE 500 MB LOW, WHICH AT
12Z(WED), IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO.

(3/9)WEDNESDAY...AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT OF MICHIGAN, IT BEGINS
TO PULL THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WITH IT, THE RAIN. IN THE MEANTIME,
THE NEXT SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AHEAD OF
THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS BEGINS TO PUSH RAIN
BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN N LOWER, AND CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO E UPPER AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS
LIKE IT LINES UP MORE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE MAY GET A LIGHT CATEGORICAL EVENT AS THE RAIN PUSHES NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE TREND FOR DAY 4-7 CONTINUES
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND NOW PRECIPITATION AS THE MODELS
HAVE FOCUSED ON THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW THAT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND PUSHES COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
BRANCH, BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE JET AND PRODUCING MORE RAIN.
SO THE BASIC IDEA OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN ON THURSDAY, THEN THE
500 MB RIDGE BUILDS, PUSHING THE RAIN EAST, ONLY FOR THE 500 MB LOW
TO LIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH BRINGS THE RAIN BACK INTO
THE REGION AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND MAYBE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT...

DRIER AIR HAS SWEPT IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE
FROM LAST NIGHT. SKC CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
BUT VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A STRONGER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN TRY TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN
LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF SOME LIGHT RAIN USHERED IN HERE VIA
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WINDS THAT GET STRONG ENOUGH JUST OFF THE SFC TO
RESULT IN MORE LLWS FOR TVC/MBL.

SFC BASED DEW POINTS RISE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING (WE WILL BE WARM ADVECTING
ALL NIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS)...GOTTA BELIEVE THAT AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS AVERAGE...AND WILL KEEP VSBYS ATTM IN THE 1-2SM RANGE.

AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC MAY EXPEDITE THIS PROCESS AT APN AS
COOLER AIR WILL MORE EFFICIENTLY KEEP TEMPS DOWN WHILE THE DEW
POINTS RISE (BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG/IFR).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST MON MAR 7 2016

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AS OUR AIRMASS GETS INCREASINGLY
WARM/STABLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...AND MARINE HEADLINES WILL
BE ABLE TO GO AWAY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP SOMEWHAT AGAIN TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT...IN PARTICULAR ON LAKE
MI.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...JZ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS SAINT LOUIS MO

 1159 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

A weak shortwave trof combined with a strong low level jet is
producing elevated convection over the area this morning.  There
was obviously enough instability to produce thunderstorms, but
it looks like that instability has been greatly diminished based on
the falling number of lightning flashes over the past hour.  The RAP
and HRRR redevelop another wave of convection back over
central Missouri where there are currently some isolated showers.
Both models move the wave east-northeast through mid morning.  The
HRRR even develops a some training showers along the I-70 corridor
for a few hours after sunrise.  Neither of the models show
particularly strong storms, and this makes sense given the
limited amount of instability (~500 J/Kg or less).

Weak shortwave ridging builds overhead by 18Z which should shut off
the precipitation.  Forecast soundings show some fairly high RH from
500mb and up, so think it will stay fairly cloudy today.  That being
said, we`ll start the day with temperatures ranging from around 50
to the mid and upper 50s with southerly flow and continuing warm
advection.  Think highs in the low to mid 70s are easily attainable
with even moderate insolation through mid and high clouds.

Carney


GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

Another round of showers/storms is expected Monday night, mainly
across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to a weak
southwest flow shortwave and a strong southwesterly low level jet
over northwest MO which will bring increasing low level warm air
advection and moisture to the area. Our next shot of convection
should move into central MO Tuesday afternoon and through
northeast MO and west central IL, just north of STL Tuesday
evening with the potential for some heavy rainfall as upper level
divergence increases ahead of the approaching, but slow moving
upper level trough with deep south-southwesterly low-mid level
flow leading to a deep moisture profile. Tbe heaviest rain
potential will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as a northern
stream upper level trough moves eastward through the northern
Plains sending a cold front southeastward into our area. Still
some model discrepency as to where the heaviest rain will occur,
although they have been trending northward with the heaviest rain
axis, now extending from south central MO northeast into west
central IL with the heaviest QPF just west and north of STL
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The best potential for rain
should gradually shift south-southeastward on Thursday and Thursday
night as the front continues to shift southeastward. The rain
threat should shift back northward through much of the forecast
area Friday night and Saturday as the upper level low along with
an associated surface low finally move northeastward through our
area. The GFS model is a little more progressive with this
feature, shifting the rain out of our area by late Saturday night,
while the ECMWF does not push the rain completely northeast of
our forecast area until late Sunday night. For now will keep
chance pops going for the weekend, although the rainfall intensity
should be less. Will continue the heavy rain, hydrologic outlook
for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Later shifts may need
to issue a flood watch when the location, rainfall amounts and
timing becomes more certain.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2016

VFR flight conditions will prevail this afternoon along with gusty
southerly winds. VFR will continue into this evening and then
stratus will begin spreading into the region overnight into early
Tuesday morning producing MVFR flight conditions. Precipitation
potential is greatest along the corridor from KCOU-KUIN overnight
into early Tuesday morning as activity moves east from western MO.
Coverage and amount of thunder are the biggest uncertainties. Any
precipitation elsewhere looks rather spotty. Overnight there will
be a strong southwesterly LLJ overhead we will need to monitor
for potential LLWS, however present indications are that
conditions will be marginal at best and thus it hasn`t been
mentioned.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail this afternoon along with gusty
southerly winds, with VFR continuing tonight. Stratus will begin
spreading into the region overnight and into KSTL early Tuesday
morning producing MVFR flight conditions. Any precipitation
looks rather spotty and probability too low to mention. Overnight
there will be a strong southwesterly LLJ overhead we will need to
monitor for potential LLWS, however present indications are that
conditions will be marginal at best and thus it hasn`t been
included in the TAF.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 326 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

AT H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEBRASKA TONIGHT. RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DUE TO
RH BELOW 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

THIS EVENING... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. AS OF 21Z...
LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSNY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SLOWLY BRING
SATURATION BELOW 850HPA THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. AT 00Z... HRRR AND RAP MODELS PLACE SFC LOW OVER KTIF
WITH EXPANDING COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO THE WEST AND CONTINUED DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NAM AND RAP FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH CONVECTIVE INDICES... MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG... LIFTED INDEX AS
LOW AS -3C... AND UP TO 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR FROM KSNY TO KAIA TO
KVTN. CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING... BUT THREAT
OF SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.

TONIGHT... SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER BOYD CO BY 06Z ACCORDING TO NAM
AND HRR. 850HPA CAA IS STRONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING NEARLY 8C OVER
NORTHWEST NEB FROM 00-06Z. HOWEVER... 850HPA TEMPS REMAIN AOA 0C
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AT KAIA
AND MERRIMAN WHILE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING IN LOWEST
100HPA. RAP ALSO WEAKENS LIFT AS TEMPS COOL TO THE POINT WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH CONFIDENCE
RELATIVELY LOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE... OR
AT LEAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR... LEFT MAIN PTYPE AS
RASN WEST OF NEB HWY 61. HOWEVER... CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEAR
KAIA AND PINE RIDGE SO LEFT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW... IN CASE
STRONG LOW LIFT CONTINUES AFTER 06Z ALLOWING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
DYNAMIC COOLING.

TUESDAY... MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG SD
BORDER WITH SLOWLY DRYING AIR IN LOWEST 50HPA. LEFT SCHC RAIN NORTH
OF U.S. HWY 20 THROUGH 18Z. FARTHER SOUTH... SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER
AND EXPECT CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING. 850HPA TEMPS ARE MODEST AT
0-5C WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX
TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ALIGNED WELL WITH MONDAY 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE... RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND HAVE SOME TIMING AND
TEMPERATURE ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEANS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON
STEADY RISE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...5C TO 15C. ECMWF MORE
PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE THURSDAY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLES
COMING IN WITH 1 TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LOW 60S ON THURSDAY THROUGH UPPER 60S SUNDAY SEEM REASONABLE AS
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PACIFIC AIR. STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
SLOWED BY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BUT LOOKING
AT TIME HEIGHTS DRY LOWER LEVELS HIGH BASED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH STRONG CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POSSIBILITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES. GUSTS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN. MVFR CIGS ARE
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MAR 7 2016

CRITICAL RH VALUES AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. RED FLAG WARNING ON TRACK FOR FIRE ZONES 210 AND 219.
DECENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MAX RH VALUES AOA 80 PERCENT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE
20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SNIVELY
FIRE WEATHER...SNIVELY



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
257 PM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Snow showers will diminish this evening with a short dry period
expected tuesday. A weak disturbance may bring light snow and
rain Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Additional storm systems
will bring gusty winds at times, with periods of rain and snow
later this week through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Bands of snow showers over the Sierra and far western NV are
expected to continue for a few more hours then slowly wind down
this evening. Although web camera images show wet pavement over
the main passes, some snow could accumulate again after 4 pm
especially if a heavier band moves over those areas. We will keep
the Winter Weather Advisory going until 8 pm, then the majority
of the snow should taper off with the weakening deformation zone
as the main low moves south into northwest Mexico.

If sufficient clearing occurs later this evening, areas of
freezing fog would be able to develop late tonight and early
Tuesday in the usual fog prone valleys in northeast CA and around
Truckee.

After a shortwave ridge brings dry conditions to most areas
Tuesday (although high clouds will likely increase during the day),
warm advection moisture increases Tuesday night through early
Wednesday morning. This would bring increased chances of light
snow and rain mainly in areas north of I-80 and near the Sierra.
Snow levels will likely begin relatively low (around 5000-5500
feet except 4500-5000 feet north of Portola-Gerlach) but rise
quickly Wednesday morning. At most, a few inches may accumulate
mainly above 5000-5500 feet in northeast CA and around Tahoe, but
then quickly melt off during the mid-late morning.

Warmer and drier conditions then prevail through Wednesday with
moderate breezes in the afternoon. Winds in higher elevations will
begin to increase Tuesday night, with a further strengthening
Wednesday night with possible ridge gusts up to 100 mph. MJD


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

A few minor changes were made to the long term, mainly in the
Thursday/Friday time frame. Overall, the pattern looks to remain
unsettled into early next week, but plenty of uncertainty remains
even for Thursday and Friday.

For late week, the GFS brings a weakening front to the I-80/HWY 50
corridors late Thursday and Thursday night while the EC keeps it
near the Oregon border. For Friday and Friday night, both have a
splitting system. However the GFS splits it apart with little impact
here while the EC brings in a decent negative tilt system. The only
changes made here were to decrease the precip chances south and east
of HWY50/395 for Thursday/Thursday night and increase them in
western Lassen County where the best threat is. Snow levels will
start high near 7000 feet Thursday and Thursday night then fall some
Friday, although the GFS with its splitting system brings in less
cold air.

For the weekend into early next week, there is better agreement
amongst the models and ensembles for a potentially significant
system. GFS/EC both have it come through in two parts, one
Saturday night and the rest Sunday night into Monday morning with
the latter being the stronger one. Winds look strongest Saturday
night into Sunday at least in the valleys while the ridges will
blow the entire event. As for precip, snow levels may start lower
at 6000-7000 feet then potentially fall to near the valley floors
Monday morning. Have generally gone with likely pops in the Sierra
and chance Western NV Saturday night on. While it does look
promising, given the way the models have changed and the potential
for the storm to split, do not want to speculate on any amounts at
this time. Wallmann

&&

.AVIATION...

With the upper low over southern CA slowly pulling away, expect the
showers currently around to continue through 03Z then diminish.
Occasional IFR CIGS/VIS in the Sierra in the heavier showers, most
notably around KTRK/KMMH. KRNO/KCXP will also see some MVFR CIGS
thru 00Z. Slow clearing tonight with generally VFR conditions after
06Z. Only exception would be near KTRK if FZFG forms, about a 30%
chance.

Winds will be north near 10 kt into this evening thru 06Z before
becoming light. Winds become more west to northwest Tuesday
afternoon after 22Z with peak speeds to 50 kt. There will be some
mtn wave turbulence Tuesday evening as ridge winds briefly gust to
60 kt. There could also be some MVFR CIGS due to light precip
north of I-80 Tuesday night.

Looking ahead, next storm impacts are Thursday afternoon into
Friday. How extensive the impacts remains uncertain with large model
differences. A stronger storm is possible late Saturday through next
Monday as well. Wallmann

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1018 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Main update was replacing the Winter Storm Warning with a Winter
Weather Advisory for the Sierra zones, and letting the advisory
expire for northeast CA-northwest NV. Lighter snow associated with
deformation zone will continue today but we are expecting fewer
travel impacts. Recent web cameras show wet roads on I-80 near
Donner Summit and US-50 near Echo Summit. Mono County has been
left dry so far this morning, but short range guidance has
indicated that the deformation zone will shift to that area by
early-mid afternoon. If this deformation area comes together as
projected, snow may persist a few hours into the evening near
Mammoth Lakes, although amounts are not likely to exceed 6
inches. MJD

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...

Upper low has slowed its east-southeast progress and remains just
off the central CA coast this morning. Just looking at the trends
from satellite and radar data leads one to believe the best
chance for any appreciable snow will be farther south into Mono
County through the day. But...the latest HRRR depictions show
precipitation developing across far western Nevada and northeast
California later this morning in response to the expected
deformation zone on the north and northeast side of the upper low.
If/when this happens we could see a period of accumulating snow
across the far northern part of the forecast area where
temperatures are closer to the freezing mark this morning and
relative humidity is higher. Farther south along the Sierra Front
the temperatures this morning area a little higher and there is a
little more dry air near the surface. This would produce wet
bulbing...but may not be sufficiently cold enough to allow any
accumulation as the morning wears on. So...even though we may see
snow across the Reno/Carson City area later this morning...it does
not appear now there will be sufficient accumulating snow to
maintain the winter weather advisory.

Snow amounts will be a little less in the the Tahoe basin as
well...but we will maintain the warning there for now given snow
that has already fallen and continuing travel difficulties.
Farther north there is still light snow falling in parts of
northeast california so we will let the advisory continue there as
well. In Mono County we expect redevelopment as this area will be
closer to the upper low today. The amounts may not be what we
originally forecast...but there should be some snow and travel
difficulties later this morning. 20

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

Storm pushing through the Sierra today may impact the morning
commute with snow covered roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
Tuesday will bring a brief break in the weather before the pattern
turns wet again midweek.

SHORT TERM...

Heavy snowfall continues in the Sierra early this morning as this
second winter storm pushes into the West Coast. Sierra passes have
been significantly impacted overnight with extensive travel delays,
chain controls, and even a temporary closure of Interstate 80 to
name a few incidents. For the latest on road conditions please
check with CalTrans, NDOT, or CHP.

Precipitation has not begun to spillover into western Nevada early
this morning, but high resolution simulations are indicating that
could occur sometime between 3AM and 6AM this morning. Forecast
model soundings are still indicating a very unstable atmosphere
with steep lapse rates that would be conducive to showers
developing. NAM/GFS are indicating that the area of deformation
may develop later, after 10AM, which would not be conducive to
snowfall accumulating on the roadways and therefore limiting
snowfall totals for Reno, Carson City, and Minden. Although totals
may be lower for the morning commute, drivers should be alert and
slow down as even wet roads will create slick driving conditions.

As the upper level trough drops south and east later this afternoon,
the flow turns north/northeast into the southern Sierra resulting in
moist upslope flow into Mono/Alpine counties. Wrap around bands
could result in a late afternoon burst of snow showers, especially
from Highway 50 south. With snowfall likely persisting through the
afternoon and into the evening, we decided to go ahead and extend
the Winter Storm Warning through 4PM. There is potential for
additional accumulations around 1 to 2 feet of snow above 7000 feet
through late this evening in Mono County. Please see the Winter
Storm Warning for details.

We are still anticipating a break in the weather on Tuesday as a
weak ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Tuesday night into
Wednesday, warm air advection precipitation starts to push into
far northern CA/NV with light precipitation possible mainly north
of Interstate 80. Models have continued to trend farther south
with this feature. With forecast model soundings showing an
isothermal layer for this time frame with the light precipitation,
we are expecting it to fall as snow with some light accumulations
possible especially north of Gerlach and Susanville. The light
snow accumulations could pose a problem for the Wednesday morning
commute as it would increase the chances for slick road
conditions. Weishahn

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

A few changes were made to pops in the extended forecast early on
with only minimal changes made after Friday. The model solutions
offer overall mild agreement in the long wave pattern as a broad
trough remains offshore through the extended period...but there is
little agreement in the details at this point regarding timing of
short waves rotating through the flow that would trigger periods of
precipitation. The extended looks to be a time of unsettled
weather...but whether that takes the form of rain or snow outside of
the higher elevations is quite literally up in the air at this point.

By Thursday the GFS is a little faster and farther south than the
ECMWF in bringing pcpn back to the region. This means lower snow
levels for the GFS as well. These differences extend into Friday as
the GFS moves the short wave through the region with pops
spreading across the CWA while the ECMWF holds the short wave back
to the west and almost gives it a negative tilt. This would slow
the entrance of pcpn into western Nevada until later Friday and
cause higher temperatures over the Basin and Range. The GEFS
ensembles show some minor support for this solution...but most
members are closer to the deterministic GFS. So the primary
changes were to bump pops up a bit over the far western CWA
Thursday and trim them back in the eastern CWA. Pops were lowered
in the far southeast CWA for Friday.

The ECMWF becomes almost zonal and much wetter than the GFS by late
Saturday. The GFS redevelops the long wave trough off the coast.
Again...these disparate solutions would have significant impacts to
pops...snow levels and temperatures. This extends into Sunday as the
GFS starts to eject another short wave and becomes much colder than
the ECMWF.

Overall there is a high likelihood that the extended period will
feature wet weather...but differences in the deterministic and
ensemble model solutions lead to a low confidence forecast regarding
any details. Will go with a very general forecast of the period this
cycle. 20

AVIATION...

Deep moisture plume and lift associated with the next short wave
trough and incoming upper level low will combine to produce snow
through the Sierra into the early afternoon while areas east and
north of the Sierra see a mix of rain and snow before turning to all
snow later today. Currently there is less precipitation making its
way over the Sierra as the mid level winds have become more
southerly. This will allow VFR conditions to hold on longer east of
the Sierra and even in some Sierra valleys through roughly daybreak.
As the upper low gets closer today...conditions should deteriorate
with snow accumulating on the Sierra runways up to as much as 6
inches through late morning and IFR conditions prevailing. East of
the Sierra the likelihood of accumulating snow is becoming far more
uncertain...but we could see a couple of inches at KCXP and KMEV
through 7/18 UTC. The lack of significant spillover is making
accumulations at KRNO far less likely...but they cannot be ruled out.

Occasional gusty winds will continue this morning up to 35kts from
the south. By late afternoon surface winds should shift to the
northwest for most locations. Lingering snow showers will bring
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions into the evening hours before the
showers taper off by daybreak Tuesday.

Another round of unsettled weather will return to the region
starting Wednesday and last through the week. 20


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

 828 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH ALONG COASTAL CALIFORNIA
TODAY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&

.UPDATE...STORM SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH ALONG COASTAL CA TODAY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NV
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 232 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AS LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE SIERRAS MOVES FARTHER
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE SILVER
STATE. TODAY WILL OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEK WITH
AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. THEN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROADENING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS STRADDLING THE SIERRAS NEAR
SACRAMENTO AND RENO THIS MORNING. THE MEAN 516DM UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS SPINNING SOUTHWEST OF KETCHIKAN ALASKA EXTENDING A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE LOBES INTO THE CONUS...ONE MOVING INTO OREGON AND
ONE...SORT OF FRACTURED...MOVING INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED. UPPER LEVEL ROTATION CAN BE SEEN ON IR NEAR
THE BASE OF THE LATTER SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM EUREKA CALIFORNIA. RADAR
IS INDICATING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER WESTERN
NEVADA...NOTHING NOTED AT RENO FALLON OR LOVELOCK AS OF 2 AM. MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER UP NORTH.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTH
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SIERRAS AND PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS COOLER AIR OOZES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE PRIMARY RECIPIENT OF ANY VALLEY SNOWFALL WILL BE AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE SOURCE AND GENERALLY
WEST OF ELKO...AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY WHICH WILL QUICKLY MELT
OFF.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CLOSES OFF
CIRCULATION...THEN MOVES ACROSS MEXICO TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS... SOME RIDGING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPAND OVER THE STATE.
THIS RIDGE IS NOT NECESSARILY SEEN AS LOW AMPLITUDE HOWEVER THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SO FAR OUT IN THE PACIFIC THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME WAVES OF MOISTURE ECLIPSING THE RIDGE
PEAK...RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. CENTRAL NEVADA SHOULD ESSENTIALLY REMAIN DRY DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO
HIGH WITH THE DETAILS GIVEN MODEL SPREAD...BUT ALL THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW A TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NRN/CENTRAL NEVADA EITHER ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.  THE FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE INCOMING
TROUGH SPLITS UPON ITS ARRIVAL. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE HITS THE
NRN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS OVER THE SIERRA. IN THIS REGARD...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS. AIR MASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO MOST SPOTS
WOULD GET RAIN BELOW 7-8K FEET.

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE WEST COAST INTO SUNDAY
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY POINTED TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  BUT THE
MODELS KEEP THE GREAT BASIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ENERGY LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO IDAHO.  WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHEN PCPN WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXTENDED
PERIOD TAKES A BROADBRUSH APPROACH AND DOES NOT OFFER TOO MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF PASSING SHORT WAVES.

AVIATION...SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NW NEVADA WILL BRINGS AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW THAT WILL LIKELY REACH KWMC BETWEEN 14Z-18Z.  THIS AREA OF
PCPN BECOMES DISORGANIZED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE CENTRAL BUT NOT SO MUCH THE EAST. KTPH STANDS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.  FOR KEKO AND
KELY...SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER A SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/88




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
649 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...

Upper low has slowed its east-southeast progress and remains just
off the central CA coast this morning. Just looking at the trends
from satellite and radar data leads one to believe the best
chance for any appreciable snow will be farther south into Mono
County through the day. But...the latest HRRR depictions show
precipitation developing across far western Nevada and northeast
California later this morning in response to the expected
deformation zone on the north and northeast side of the upper low.
If/when this happens we could see a period of accumulating snow
across the far northern part of the forecast area where
temperatures are closer to the freezing mark this morning and
relative humidity is higher. Farther south along the Sierra Front
the temperatures this morning area a little higher and there is a
little more dry air near the surface. This would produce wet
bulbing...but may not be sufficiently cold enough to allow any
accumulation as the morning wears on. So...even though we may see
snow across the Reno/Carson City area later this morning...it does
not appear now there will be sufficient accumulating snow to
maintain the winter weather advisory.

Snow amounts will be a little less in the the Tahoe basin as
well...but we will maintain the warning there for now given snow
that has already fallen and continuing travel difficulties.
Farther north there is still light snow falling in parts of
northeast california so we will let the advisory continue there as
well. In Mono County we expect redevelopment as this area will be
closer to the upper low today. The amounts may not be what we
originally forecast...but there should be some snow and travel
difficulties later this morning. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

Storm pushing through the Sierra today may impact the morning
commute with snow covered roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
Tuesday will bring a brief break in the weather before the pattern
turns wet again midweek.

SHORT TERM...

Heavy snowfall continues in the Sierra early this morning as this
second winter storm pushes into the West Coast. Sierra passes have
been significantly impacted overnight with extensive travel delays,
chain controls, and even a temporary closure of Interstate 80 to
name a few incidents. For the latest on road conditions please
check with CalTrans, NDOT, or CHP.

Precipitation has not begun to spillover into western Nevada early
this morning, but high resolution simulations are indicating that
could occur sometime between 3AM and 6AM this morning. Forecast
model soundings are still indicating a very unstable atmosphere
with steep lapse rates that would be conducive to showers
developing. NAM/GFS are indicating that the area of deformation
may develop later, after 10AM, which would not be conducive to
snowfall accumulating on the roadways and therefore limiting
snowfall totals for Reno, Carson City, and Minden. Although totals
may be lower for the morning commute, drivers should be alert and
slow down as even wet roads will create slick driving conditions.

As the upper level trough drops south and east later this afternoon,
the flow turns north/northeast into the southern Sierra resulting in
moist upslope flow into Mono/Alpine counties. Wrap around bands
could result in a late afternoon burst of snow showers, especially
from Highway 50 south. With snowfall likely persisting through the
afternoon and into the evening, we decided to go ahead and extend
the Winter Storm Warning through 4PM. There is potential for
additional accumulations around 1 to 2 feet of snow above 7000 feet
through late this evening in Mono County. Please see the Winter
Storm Warning for details.

We are still anticipating a break in the weather on Tuesday as a
weak ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Tuesday night into
Wednesday, warm air advection precipitation starts to push into
far northern CA/NV with light precipitation possible mainly north
of Interstate 80. Models have continued to trend farther south
with this feature. With forecast model soundings showing an
isothermal layer for this time frame with the light precipitation,
we are expecting it to fall as snow with some light accumulations
possible especially north of Gerlach and Susanville. The light
snow accumulations could pose a problem for the Wednesday morning
commute as it would increase the chances for slick road
conditions. Weishahn

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

A few changes were made to pops in the extended forecast early on
with only minimal changes made after Friday. The model solutions
offer overall mild agreement in the long wave pattern as a broad
trough remains offshore through the extended period...but there is
little agreement in the details at this point regarding timing of
short waves rotating through the flow that would trigger periods of
precipitation. The extended looks to be a time of unsettled
weather...but whether that takes the form of rain or snow outside of
the higher elevations is quite literally up in the air at this point.

By Thursday the GFS is a little faster and farther south than the
ECMWF in bringing pcpn back to the region. This means lower snow
levels for the GFS as well. These differences extend into Friday as
the GFS moves the short wave through the region with pops
spreading across the CWA while the ECMWF holds the short wave back
to the west and almost gives it a negative tilt. This would slow
the entrance of pcpn into western Nevada until later Friday and
cause higher temperatures over the Basin and Range. The GEFS
ensembles show some minor support for this solution...but most
members are closer to the deterministic GFS. So the primary
changes were to bump pops up a bit over the far western CWA
Thursday and trim them back in the eastern CWA. Pops were lowered
in the far southeast CWA for Friday.

The ECMWF becomes almost zonal and much wetter than the GFS by late
Saturday. The GFS redevelops the long wave trough off the coast.
Again...these disparate solutions would have significant impacts to
pops...snow levels and temperatures. This extends into Sunday as the
GFS starts to eject another short wave and becomes much colder than
the ECMWF.

Overall there is a high likelihood that the extended period will
feature wet weather...but differences in the deterministic and
ensemble model solutions lead to a low confidence forecast regarding
any details. Will go with a very general forecast of the period this
cycle. 20

AVIATION...

Deep moisture plume and lift associated with the next short wave
trough and incoming upper level low will combine to produce snow
through the Sierra into the early afternoon while areas east and
north of the Sierra see a mix of rain and snow before turning to all
snow later today. Currently there is less precipitation making its
way over the Sierra as the mid level winds have become more
southerly. This will allow VFR conditions to hold on longer east of
the Sierra and even in some Sierra valleys through roughly daybreak.
As the upper low gets closer today...conditions should deteriorate
with snow accumulating on the Sierra runways up to as much as 6
inches through late morning and IFR conditions prevailing. East of
the Sierra the likelihood of accumulating snow is becoming far more
uncertain...but we could see a couple of inches at KCXP and KMEV
through 7/18 UTC. The lack of significant spillover is making
accumulations at KRNO far less likely...but they cannot be ruled out.

Occasional gusty winds will continue this morning up to 35kts from
the south. By late afternoon surface winds should shift to the
northwest for most locations. Lingering snow showers will bring
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions into the evening hours before the
showers taper off by daybreak Tuesday.

Another round of unsettled weather will return to the region
starting Wednesday and last through the week. 20


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ005.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ070-071.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CENTER OF THE SFC
LOW IS STILL DOWN OVER NEBRASKA...BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA
THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND 50S ARE NOT THAT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE MODELS
ALL BRING THE WARMER TEMPS AND MOISTURE UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS BY 06Z...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO...SO
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING THE MAIN ONE AND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
THROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EAST
TOMORROW EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC LOW TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW OUR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
TOMORROW...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 30S AND
40S AND IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT GO THROUGH
UNTIL LATE COULD STILL REACH THE 50S. HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS QUIET FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN...RISING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S WEDNESDAY TO THE
40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NW MN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA.

GFS/ECMWF KEEP QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER WITH SFC TEMPS. AT
THIS POINT...HIGHS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S APPEARS LIKELY...WHILE MORE 60S ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AS THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING CEILINGS/VIS. PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG PERSISTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF FARGO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS NORTHWARD
INTO KGFK/KDVL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH OF A
NORTHWARD PUSH AND WITH PEAK HEATING APPROACHING...WENT WITH MORE
OPTIMISTIC VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SFC LOW LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO EVENTUALLY DROP INTO MVFR/IFR RANGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SOME FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOIST LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW TOWARDS KTVF/KBJI.

HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE TUES AM WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT...MAINLY KEPT VCSH FOR NOW.  WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE NORTH ON TUES MORNING AT KGFK/KFAR/KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 311 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR ARDMORE TO
JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE, JET MAX, AND SUBTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST, THE DRYLINE HAS NOW NUDGED ITS
WAY INTO NW OK AND IS BULGING INTO EXTREME SW OK AND WESTERN N TX.
CU ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT WHERE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED CIN PRESENT
JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY NEAR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BULGE AND NORTHWEST OK, AS HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER E CO. ALL SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY WANE AS THEY MOVE NE INTO STABLE
AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, A MID TO UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX BEFORE 12Z, AND THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO AID IN LIFT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
UP/NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR THROUGH TOMORROW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES (~8 C/KM) ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW OVER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS, IN ADDITION TO MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT. THE
PREVIOUS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS, AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES ACROSS SW OK/W N TX FROM AROUND
06-09Z WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. AFTER WHICH, A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF OUR FA AND INTO TSA`S SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THIS COMPLEX,
BUT IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF ARE PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL RIGHT NOW AND MATCH WELL WITH
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL ASCENT TONIGHT SO THE FORECAST WAS WEIGHED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THEIR TRENDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF THE I44
CORRIDOR.

A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING WED MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER SIGNFICANT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE RED RIVER WITHIN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONG MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL,
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WED, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHCS IMPACTING ZONES SOUTH OF I40 AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
SHOULD RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  68  54  66 /  40  90  50  70
HOBART OK         58  70  49  65 /  60  80  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  75  54  68 /  80  90  60  40
GAGE OK           50  66  42  63 /  20  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     60  66  48  65 /  30  80  40  60
DURANT OK         61  73  59  67 /  80  80  80  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PENDLETON OR

 948 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING 3 LOWS...ONE NORTH OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND...ONE OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND ONE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW THE CWA IS BETWEEN THE LAST TWO CENTERS. THE
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE IS MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HRRR INDICATES THAT THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
BE DRY UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z THOUGH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO ORIGINAL
FORECAST COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. GENERALLY SCATTERED CIGS BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FEET AGL
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT AROUND 20000 FEET AGL ARE
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM 21Z-02Z BUT THE CHANCES WERE SO LOW AT TAF SITES THAT ONLY
MENTIONED VCSH AT KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN. AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS TODAY WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS THROUGH 02Z THEN DROP BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW MORNING.
PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2500-3500
FT.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA AND A COOLER SPLIT FLOW WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD STILL BE MILD AND IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S MOUNTAINS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...WITH 20S MOUNTAINS.  ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
AREA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST FOCUS ON THE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 925-
850MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR AN UPSLOPE
FLOW TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.  THERE COULD BE
CONCERN FOR SOME SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TO FLOOD AGAIN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS ARE
TRYING TO HOLD ONTO LOWER SNOW LEVELS KEEPING THE SNOW MELT MINIMAL.
IF MODELS TREND TOWARD A WARMER SNOW LEVEL IN THE COMING DAYS THERE
MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.  WEBER

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR ABOVE 4500-6500 FEET. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS. MODELS
ARE VARYING IN THE MOVEMENT OF WAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH EACH WAVE. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  31  52  34 /  30  20  10  40
ALW  54  33  54  37 /  40  30  10  40
PSC  57  33  54  36 /  20  10  10  30
YKM  56  30  53  32 /  20  10  10  40
HRI  55  32  54  34 /  20  10  10  30
ELN  51  28  48  30 /  30  10  10  40
RDM  48  24  50  32 /  30  20  30  50
LGD  49  28  50  32 /  50  20  10  40
GCD  49  27  49  33 /  50  20  10  50
DLS  55  32  52  37 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/83/83




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 352 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN INITIAL BATCH OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE IS POSITIONED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IT HAS MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS SWEETWATER BUT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING NOW
APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH IS HELPING TO SHARPEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED. LATEST LOOK AT RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES INDICATES THAT A SHARP CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4KM NAM ALSO
SHOWS AN ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE ALTHOUGH IT COULD PUT DOWN ANOTHER BAND OF AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. IN ALL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL TONIGHT IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35W AND AREAS
WEST.

TUESDAY...IS OUR MAIN DAY IN QUESTION REGARDING THE FORECAST AS IT
COULD VERY WELL BE MOSTLY QUIET OR RATHER ACTIVE. IT IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO POPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL MAIN AREAS OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WEST OF I-35. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A RATHER UNPERTURBED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WEAKLY
CAPPED. THIS SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES BACK WEAKLY IN THE MID LEVELS
LIKELY INDICATING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE...THEN IT MAY BE A
QUIET DAY...ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM. IF THE SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT
EXIST AND WE HAVE ANY LIFT AT ALL...THEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ON THE AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY
ANY DATA FROM 12 OR 18Z SOUNDINGS TOMORROW CAN OFFER. FOR NOW...WE
WILL SIDE WITH LOWER OVERALL POPS AND MONITOR THE THREAT CLOSELY.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WARM ADVECTION STREAMER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

THE NEXT LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE TIME WHEN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...EAST OF THE METROPLEX FOR
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
COULD SEE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
DISCREPANCIES GROW REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. WE CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING THUNDER AND LOW CEILINGS.

METROPLEX TAF SITES HAVE ALREADY BEEN IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. A RELATIVE LULL IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE GLEN ROSE CORNERPOST REACHES
THE METROPLEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDER MAY BRIDGE THE
GAP BETWEEN THE TWO EVENTS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CAPPED...THESE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY.

AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING...ONLY
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN A RE-STRENGTHENING LLJ ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTANT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MAY IMPACT EARLY MORNING DEPARTURES TO THE WEST...AND MAY
DISRUPT THE BOWIE CORNERPOST MUCH OF THE MORNING.

A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LACK OF FORCING MAY PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHOSEN NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
SHOWERS AND FINE-TUNE POTENTIAL WINDOW FOR THUNDER WITH FUTURE
PACKAGES.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  75  60  68  57 /  80  50 100  60  50
WACO, TX              66  77  59  70  56 /  60  40 100  60  50
PARIS, TX             62  72  61  68  58 /  70  90 100  90  50
DENTON, TX            64  74  59  68  56 /  80  50 100  60  50
MCKINNEY, TX          65  74  60  67  56 /  80  50 100  70  50
DALLAS, TX            68  75  60  69  58 /  70  50 100  70  50
TERRELL, TX           67  75  60  69  58 /  60  60 100  80  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  76  61  69  58 /  50  50 100  70  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  78  59  70  56 /  60  40 100  50  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  77  57  68  54 /  80  50  80  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1226 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF DKR AREA AT 18Z. WINDS HAVE CRANKED
UP TO 15-25G24-33...BORDERLINE LLWS NOW BUT OVERNIGHT LLWS
CERTAINLY COME INTO PLAY WITH 40-50KT 925MB WINDS. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TODAY INTO 2500-4000FT RANGE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN LOWERING INTO 1000-1800FT RANGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND WILL CARRY VCSH 03Z ALL SITES BUT
GLS AND THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON STRONG SSE-SE WINDS FREQUENT
SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO AVIATION OPERATIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS/TSRA/SVR+/HEAVY RAIN.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...
A STOUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING /ON
THE ORDER OF A 4 MB CHANGE FROM THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES PER LAPS ANALYSIS... ABOUT 140 MILES/ AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS...
COMBINED WITH MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE /KHGX AND
KGRK VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING 30 TO 40 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SURFACE/... WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE HOUSTON... WALKER... MONTGOMERY... HARRIS... GALVESTON...
AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ADDITIONALLY... WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BENEATH A CAPPING
INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850 MB ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. TRENDS IN
THE HRRR SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND HAVE CONTINUED 20 POP/ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH... BUT THINK CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING.

FOR THE MARINE UPDATE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
MATAGORDA BAY.

THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
HAZARDS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... PARTICULARLY IN THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
WILL ADD 20 POPS TO COVER THE DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWERS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OB TRENDS SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS WERE BECOMING
MORE PREVALENT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS VFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST
OF HOUSTON THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FROM THE BIG AIRPORTS SOUTH. KGLS IS TRICKY AND THE MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWED A MORE VFR PROFILE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CHANCES
INCREASE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KGLS AS WELL TOWARD
MIDDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TONIGHT AND IFR
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
TIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. KHGX VWP SHOWS 35-40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
AND MUCH OF THAT WIND ENERGY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 20
TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE AND
VERY DRY AIR AT 700 MB. A SATURATED LAYER GROWS IN DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY SO PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP THIS
AFTN. FEEL 20 POPS WILL WORK FOR NOW. THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENS
FURTHER TONIGHT BUT PROFILES REMAIN DRY AT AND ABOVE 700 MB.
BUMPED POPS UPWARD AS THE CAP WEAKENS A BIT.

TUESDAY...A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS TO CONTEND WITH. A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ELEVATED TIDES TO PART OF GALVESTON...
CHAMBERS AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES. TIDE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
3.1 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 4.1 FEET TUES
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WATER ACROSS HWY 87 SO A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
A WARNING TONIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALSO CREATED
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ANYONE HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY SHOULD
USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT INTO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE JETTIES.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG INTO NW MEXICO DURING THE DAY.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES SURGE TO 1.6 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
18Z. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT SO WOULD
EXPECTED SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NAM12/ECMWF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND BOTH INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF I-45 WITH LAPSE RATES
INCREASING...HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300 AND LI`S AROUND -5.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW IS STRONGLY
DIVERGENT AND A 110 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL BE APPROACHING SE TX. SE
TX WILL LIE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH 12Z
WEDS. PW VALUES SURGE TO 1.85 INCHES LATE TUES/EARLY WED. THIS
MOISTURE LEVEL IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUPER SATURATED PROFILE WHICH IS GENERALLY A
SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH 100 POPS AND ADDED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS. HELD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT FEEL
ONE WILL BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT NEARS. WILL HOLD OFF ON SEVERE
WORDING FOR NOW BUT PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER THAT FAVOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 60 KNOTS
AND HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 400 M2/S2 BETWEEN 09-12Z WED. CAPE
REMAINS MODEST BUT THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND WIND ENERGY IS
IMPRESSIVE. WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH THIS TYPE OF SET UP. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR GOOD
NEWS...TIDE LEVELS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM ENDS THE RAIN BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP PRECIP GOING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. JET DYNAMICS WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SO THE NAM MIGHT BE
ON TO SOMETHING. NOT SURE HOW THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT BUT
LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST BUT JET
DYNAMICS LOOK MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. THE ECMWF TARGETS A DEEP PLUME
OF MOISTURE INTO SE TX AND KEEPS RAIN GOING WED NITE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE JET DYNAMICS PLACE SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF
THE JET SO PREFER THE DRIER NAM/GFS/CANADIAN OVER THE ECMWF.
CURRENTLY HAVE 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FEEL THESE MIGHT BE TOO
HIGH. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ALMOST RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN A BIT AND PW VALUES INCREASE AGAIN WITH PROFILES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED. SHOULD GET ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER LOW. NOTHING EXCESSIVE BUT DECENT
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FEEL THE GFS IS WAY OVERDONE WITH THE NEXT
S/WV FOR SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE
SO LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 43

MARINE...
A BUSY WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS THE
AREA WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM A STRONG STORM SYSTEM 5HAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. ONSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY GENERATING ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS...
THINK THAT EITHER CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE WINDS...SO MUCH SO THAT A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FORECASTING WIND GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY LEAD TO RISES IN TIDE
LEVELS. DURING THE PEAK OF THE WINDS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AM EXPECTING NEAR CRITICAL TIDE LEVELS...VERY STRONG
CURRENTS...AND RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL NEED TO STAY ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  66  77  65  71 /  20  40  70 100  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  66  76  67  73 /  20  20  80 100  90
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  66  72  65  71 /  10  20  80 100  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1042 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.UPDATE...
A STOUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING /ON
THE ORDER OF A 4 MB CHANGE FROM THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES PER LAPS ANALYSIS... ABOUT 140 MILES/ AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS...
COMBINED WITH MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE /KHGX AND
KGRK VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING 30 TO 40 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SURFACE/... WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE HOUSTON... WALKER... MONTGOMERY... HARRIS... GALVESTON...
AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ADDITIONALLY... WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BENEATH A CAPPING
INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850 MB ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. TRENDS IN
THE HRRR SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND HAVE CONTINUED 20 POP/ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH... BUT THINK CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING.

FOR THE MARINE UPDATE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
MATAGORDA BAY.

THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
HAZARDS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... PARTICULARLY IN THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
WILL ADD 20 POPS TO COVER THE DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWERS. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

AVIATION...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OB TRENDS SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS WERE BECOMING
MORE PREVALENT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS VFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST
OF HOUSTON THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FROM THE BIG AIRPORTS SOUTH. KGLS IS TRICKY AND THE MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWED A MORE VFR PROFILE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CHANCES
INCREASE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KGLS AS WELL TOWARD
MIDDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TONIGHT AND IFR
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS TIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
TIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. KHGX VWP SHOWS 35-40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
AND MUCH OF THAT WIND ENERGY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 20
TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE AND
VERY DRY AIR AT 700 MB. A SATURATED LAYER GROWS IN DEPTH THROUGH
THE DAY SO PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP THIS
AFTN. FEEL 20 POPS WILL WORK FOR NOW. THE SATURATED LAYER DEEPENS
FURTHER TONIGHT BUT PROFILES REMAIN DRY AT AND ABOVE 700 MB.
BUMPED POPS UPWARD AS THE CAP WEAKENS A BIT.

TUESDAY...A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS TO CONTEND WITH. A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ELEVATED TIDES TO PART OF GALVESTON...
CHAMBERS AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES. TIDE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
3.1 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 4.1 FEET TUES
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WATER ACROSS HWY 87 SO A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
A WARNING TONIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALSO CREATED
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ANYONE HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY SHOULD
USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT INTO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE JETTIES.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG INTO NW MEXICO DURING THE DAY.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES SURGE TO 1.6 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
18Z. UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT SO WOULD
EXPECTED SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NAM12/ECMWF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND BOTH INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF I-45 WITH LAPSE RATES
INCREASING...HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300 AND LI`S AROUND -5.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW IS STRONGLY
DIVERGENT AND A 110 KNOT SPEED MAX WILL BE APPROACHING SE TX. SE
TX WILL LIE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH 12Z
WEDS. PW VALUES SURGE TO 1.85 INCHES LATE TUES/EARLY WED. THIS
MOISTURE LEVEL IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUPER SATURATED PROFILE WHICH IS GENERALLY A
SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. WENT WITH 100 POPS AND ADDED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS. HELD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT FEEL
ONE WILL BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT NEARS. WILL HOLD OFF ON SEVERE
WORDING FOR NOW BUT PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER THAT FAVOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 60 KNOTS
AND HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 400 M2/S2 BETWEEN 09-12Z WED. CAPE
REMAINS MODEST BUT THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND WIND ENERGY IS
IMPRESSIVE. WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH THIS TYPE OF SET UP. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR GOOD
NEWS...TIDE LEVELS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM ENDS THE RAIN BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP PRECIP GOING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. JET DYNAMICS WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SO THE NAM MIGHT BE
ON TO SOMETHING. NOT SURE HOW THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT BUT
LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST BUT JET
DYNAMICS LOOK MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. THE ECMWF TARGETS A DEEP PLUME
OF MOISTURE INTO SE TX AND KEEPS RAIN GOING WED NITE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE JET DYNAMICS PLACE SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF
THE JET SO PREFER THE DRIER NAM/GFS/CANADIAN OVER THE ECMWF.
CURRENTLY HAVE 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FEEL THESE MIGHT BE TOO
HIGH. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ALMOST RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN A BIT AND PW VALUES INCREASE AGAIN WITH PROFILES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED. SHOULD GET ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN ON FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER LOW. NOTHING EXCESSIVE BUT DECENT
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FEEL THE GFS IS WAY OVERDONE WITH THE NEXT
S/WV FOR SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE
SO LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 43

MARINE...
A BUSY WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS THE
AREA WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM A STRONG STORM SYSTEM 5HAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. ONSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY GENERATING ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS...
THINK THAT EITHER CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE WINDS...SO MUCH SO THAT A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FORECASTING WIND GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY LEAD TO RISES IN TIDE
LEVELS. DURING THE PEAK OF THE WINDS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AM EXPECTING NEAR CRITICAL TIDE LEVELS...VERY STRONG
CURRENTS...AND RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL NEED TO STAY ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  66  77  65  71 /  20  40  70 100  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  66  76  67  73 /  20  20  80 100  90
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  66  72  65  71 /  10  20  80 100  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1031 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERLY LLVL JET OF 40 TO 45 KTS IS
ANALYZED TO BE DRAPED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF S TX
AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. RESULT SHOULD BE A
CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG SFC WINDS TODAY /WEAKER
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...BUT STILL GUSTY/. HAVE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY IN THE FORECAST AND
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MUCH STRONGER WINDS MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH A FEW
GUSTS/SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS.
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING ARE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO INHERITED FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 12Z GFS AND
LATEST RUC WANT TO ERODE THE CAP ACROSS THE NW CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE/MONITOR AND MAKE ADDITIONAL UPDATES...AS NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  70  82  67  79  /  10  30  20  80  70
VICTORIA          77  69  81  65  77  /  20  40  40  80  80
LAREDO            91  69  90  63  78  /  10  10  20  80  40
ALICE             83  70  86  66  80  /  10  20  20  80  60
ROCKPORT          74  70  76  69  76  /  10  30  40  80  80
COTULLA           88  67  87  63  77  /  10  10  20  80  40
KINGSVILLE        81  71  86  66  80  /  10  20  20  80  60
NAVY CORPUS       76  70  77  69  75  /  10  20  30  80  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79