Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/06/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND THEN HEAVY FOR A TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG
IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN.
SHOWERS DECREASE MONDAY. DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST FRIDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWING THE
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN MOVING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE RAIN
RETURN BACK TO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST FOR COASTAL RANGES WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED. MOST URBAN SPOTS WILL BE UNDER 1/4".
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHIFT WILL BE FOR TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. LATEST RFC NUMBERS OUT THIS
MORNING WERE ADJUSTED A BIT HERE AT THE OFFICE. OVERALL NOT A BIG
CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS FOR COASTAL RANGES WERE
INCREASED A BIT. MOST CITIES STILL IN THE 1.5 TO 3" CATEGORY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER STORY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENT IN EFFECT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NAM
HEAVILY FOCUSED ON THE BIG SUR REGION. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THAT TODAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE`RE ALL WAITING FOR THE MAIN RAIN EVENT
WHICH WONT SHOW UP UNTIL SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME RADAR SHOWS
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RAP SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
RAINS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART ANY RAIN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED
FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND MONTEREY.
SATURDAY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND STEADY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. MAIN UPDATE
WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO SACRAMENTO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HILLS. AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL DRAG DOWN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IMPACTS SHOULD INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ASSOCIATED ISSUES SUCH AS
DOWNED POWER LINES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH SOME HEAVY
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL END OVER
THE BAY AREA AROUND 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE COLD AND
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND SOME BLUSTERY ONSHORE WINDS.
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPLIT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION.
SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY BUT THEN DRYING BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 OR 3 MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING FOR WEEK OF MARCH 14TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:54 AM PST FRIDAY...COMPLEX AND LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THIS
EVENING AND A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. DEFINITELY A MIXED
BAG WITH CIGS/VSBY RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR AT TIMES. BLUNTLY
PUT...WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...A MIX OF MVFR TO POSS IFR CONDITIONS TODAY.
WILL KEEP VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT BETTER SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. POSS BREAK THIS EVENING WITH VCSH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH STEADIER
RAINFALL AFTER 19-20Z SATURDAY. WILL NOT ISSUE AN AIRPORT WX
WARNING ATTM...BUT IT MAY BE NEED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN
RETURNING ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 AM PST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIOD OF RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...SQUARED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.BEACHES... A LARGE... MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO REGIONAL BEACHES
BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY SUNDAY... SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 20 FEET
DEPENDING ON LOCATION WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST FACING BEACHES WILL FEEL THE BRUNT
OF THIS SWELL TRAIN... WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SHORE
BREAK... AND SNEAKER WAVES POSSIBLE. A COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AND HIGH TIDE MAY ALSO LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. REMEMBER... NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE
OVERWHELMING POWER OF THE OCEAN... SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN
SWEPT OUT TO SEA THIS SEASON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND THEN HEAVY FOR A TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG
IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN.
SHOWERS DECREASE MONDAY. DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST FRIDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWING THE
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN MOVING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE RAIN
RETURN BACK TO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST FOR COASTAL RANGES WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED. MOST URBAN SPOTS WILL BE UNDER 1/4".
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHIFT WILL BE FOR TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. LATEST RFC NUMBERS OUT THIS
MORNING WERE ADJUSTED A BIT HERE AT THE OFFICE. OVERALL NOT A BIG
CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS FOR COASTAL RANGES WERE
INCREASED A BIT. MOST CITIES STILL IN THE 1.5 TO 3" CATEGORY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER STORY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENT IN EFFECT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NAM
HEAVILY FOCUSED ON THE BIG SUR REGION. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THAT TODAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE`RE ALL WAITING FOR THE MAIN RAIN EVENT
WHICH WONT SHOW UP UNTIL SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME RADAR SHOWS
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RAP SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
RAINS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART ANY RAIN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED
FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND MONTEREY.
SATURDAY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND STEADY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. MAIN UPDATE
WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO SACRAMENTO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HILLS. AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL DRAG DOWN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IMPACTS SHOULD INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ASSOCIATED ISSUES SUCH AS
DOWNED POWER LINES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH SOME HEAVY
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL END OVER
THE BAY AREA AROUND 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE COLD AND
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND SOME BLUSTERY ONSHORE WINDS.
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPLIT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION.
SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY BUT THEN DRYING BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 OR 3 MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING FOR WEEK OF MARCH 14TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 AM PST FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL USHER IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS... REDUCED VISIBILITY... AND MVFR TO VLIFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY PRIMARILY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTH BEGINNING ABOUT 24
HOURS OUT FROM NOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
STRENGTHEN FURTHER 24-36 HOURS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER RAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS. BRIEF CLEARING
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER 18Z... BUT CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER
ANY CLEARING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LIGHT...MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VLIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING.... THEN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 AM PST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIOD OF RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...SQUARED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.BEACHES... A LARGE... MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO REGIONAL BEACHES
BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY SUNDAY... SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 20 FEET
DEPENDING ON LOCATION WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST FACING BEACHES WILL FEEL THE BRUNT
OF THIS SWELL TRAIN... WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SHORE
BREAK... AND SNEAKER WAVES POSSIBLE. A COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AND HIGH TIDE MAY ALSO LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. REMEMBER... NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE
OVERWHELMING POWER OF THE OCEAN... SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN
SWEPT OUT TO SEA THIS SEASON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND THEN
HEAVY FOR A TIME THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN. SHOWERS DECREASE MONDAY. DRY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:01 AM PST FRIDAY...WERE ALL WAITING FOR THE
MAIN RAIN EVENT WHICH WONT SHOW UP UNTIL SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN
TIME RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HRRR
AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RAINS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART ANY
RAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND MONTEREY.
SATURDAY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND STEADY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. MAIN UPDATE
WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO SACRAMENTO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HILLS. AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL DRAG DOWN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IMPACTS SHOULD INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ASSOCIATED ISSUES SUCH AS
DOWNED POWER LINES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH SOME HEAVY
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL END OVER
THE BAY AREA AROUND 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE COLD AND
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND SOME BLUSTERY ONSHORE WINDS.
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPLIT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION.
SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY BUT THEN DRYING BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 OR 3 MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING FOR WEEK OF MARCH 14TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 AM PST FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL USHER IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS... REDUCED VISIBILITY... AND MVFR TO VLIFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY PRIMARILY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTH BEGINNING ABOUT 24
HOURS OUT FROM NOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
STRENGTHEN FURTHER 24-36 HOURS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER RAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS. BRIEF CLEARING
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER 18Z... BUT CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER
ANY CLEARING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LIGHT...MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VLIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING.... THEN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY STAGGERS SOUTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY... SQUARED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BEACHES... A LARGE... MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO REGIONAL BEACHES
BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY SUNDAY... SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 20 FEET
DEPENDING ON LOCATION WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST FACING BEACHES WILL FEEL THE BRUNT
OF THIS SWELL TRAIN... WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SHORE
BREAK... AND SNEAKER WAVES POSSIBLE. A COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AND HIGH TIDE MAY ALSO LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. REMEMBER... NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE
OVERWHELMING POWER OF THE OCEAN... SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN
SWEPT OUT TO SEA THIS SEASON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
BEACHES: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
420 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL
BRING SUBSTANTIAL VALLEY AND FOOTHILL RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...BREEZY
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS REGARDING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE TAPPING INTO AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
WHICH EXTENDS WELL WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MAINLY NORTH OF VISALIA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HOWEVER
THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY
WHERE SURFACE CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 500 J/KG. THE
HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE HRRR INDICATE ISOLATED STRONG
CELLS FORMING NEAR THE MERCED AREA BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY EAST. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE NEXT...AND MOST POWERFUL...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IMPACTING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY AND PEAK RIGHT BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...HEAVY VALLEY AND FOOTHILL RAIN AS
WELL AS MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE VALLEY WILL SEE GENERALLY
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN. THE FOOTHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE THE
MOUNTAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW. LASTLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON A SIDE NOTE...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A SIX HOUR PERIOD IS INDICATING 100% PROBABILITY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE REGION...FROM URBAN FLOODING TO FLASH FLOODING NEAR
BURN SCARS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
THE THIRD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE FOOTHILLS
RECEIVING BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO MUCH COOLER AIR...DROPPING SNOW LEVELS
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3,000 TO
4,000 FEET WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES ABOVE
6,000 FEET AND 2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE AROUND 4,000 FEET. A DUSTING
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 3,000 FEET.
ONCE AGAIN...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON THIS RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIST THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY...THEN LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS....AREAS IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
CAZ093-094-096-097.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096-097.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
401 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND THEN
HEAVY FOR A TIME THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN. SHOWERS DECREASE MONDAY. DRY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:01 AM PST FRIDAY...WERE ALL WAITING FOR THE
MAIN RAIN EVENT WHICH WONT SHOW UP UNTIL SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN
TIME RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HRRR
AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RAINS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART ANY
RAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND MONTEREY.
SATURDAY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND STEADY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. MAIN UPDATE
WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO SACRAMENTO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HILLS. AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL DRAG DOWN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IMPACTS SHOULD INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ASSOCIATED ISSUES SUCH AS
DOWNED POWER LINES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH SOME HEAVY
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL END OVER
THE BAY AREA AROUND 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE COLD AND
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND SOME BLUSTERY ONSHORE WINDS.
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPLIT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION.
SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY BUT THEN DRYING BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 OR 3 MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING FOR WEEK OF MARCH 14TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY MVFR BUT OCCASIONALLY IFR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY
FROM MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS
LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS...OCCASIONALLY IFR EARLY
IN PERIOD. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:38 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY STAGGERS SOUTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY... SQUARED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
405 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SATURDAY.
ALBERTA CLIPPER RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS MILDER WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE RACES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA MIDWEEK AND PULLS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. STRONG OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS IT MAKES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLASSIC LEAF PATTERN WHEN THE LOW IS UNDERGOING
CYCLOGENESIS. THIS RAMP-UP WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING 925 MB JET TO INCREASE 40-50 KTS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF SNOW EAST OF THE I-95
IS BEGINNING TO DRY UP. THIS IS DUE TO OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENING AND
PULLING THE MOISTURE CLOSER TO IT. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT MUCH OF
THE SNOW CHANCES WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MOISTURE SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE GFS/EC AND CMC ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ACK...MAINLY
WHEN TEMPS COOL OFF ONCE THE WIND GOES MORE NORTHERLY. THEREFORE
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ACK ADVISORY.
THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SNOW IS ACROSS THE MASS EAST COAST
INCLUDING THE NORTH SHORE. WENT AHEAD AN ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ESSEX COUNTY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW MOVING ONSHORE. THE LATEST NAM12 AS WELL AS THE HRRR ARE ALSO
ON BOARD. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT THE RAP GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH SHORE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A COASTAL FRONT WILL HELP ENHANCE THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MORE SO THEN WHAT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES FOR ESSEX COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE ON TOP OF THE 1-2 THAT
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN. ONCE THE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP...BELIEVE THEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION OF THE WIND. SO LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS ROUTE 3 IN PLYMOUTH COULD BE IMPACTED WITH A QUICK DUSTING
OF SNOW AS WELL AS REDUCED VSBYS...ESP DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE
AND INTO LATE EVENING HOURS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION THIS
EVENING WHEN TRAVELING.
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEFORE ENDING AROUND 1-3 AM.
THE OTHER MAIN FOCUS IS THE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ANTICIPATE LOCATIONS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO SEE NEAR 25-35 MPH GUSTS. HOWEVER STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS...WHICH IS CLOSER
TO THE STRONG JET. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS GUSTS
BETWEEN 40- 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES.
THERE ARE A FEW COASTAL CONCERNS...PLEASE REACH THE COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW FOR
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS GUSTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLAND AND THE WATERS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW TURNS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY PASSING BY DURING THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
RIDGE-WEST/TROUGH-EAST PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND FLATTENS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WEST TO EAST AS THE FLOW
FLATTENS. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE SCALE SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW WELL OUT TO SEA. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA. A THIRD SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS CANADA
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
FLATTENING THE NEW ENGLAND PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE DAILIES...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...
ALBERTA CLIPPER FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THEN SWINGS OFFSHORE AND WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA. HOWEVER THE
SUPPORTING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER US. SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
AT THE CORE OF THE TROUGH TO INCREASE INSTABILITY...TOTALS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WHICH SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. LIKELY NOT ANY THUNDER...BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL THEN MOVE OFF WITH CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL REACH TO 850 MB SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS QUEBEC
WILL PULL A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SO WE MAY
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SUPPORT FOR WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK WILL BE THE WARMING TEMPS. WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SHRINK THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
MIXING EVEN TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MID 60S TUESDAY AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...SO
WE BUMPED GUIDANCE VALUES UP 2-3 DEGREES.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING EASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA EITHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS OR THURSDAY MIDDAY-AFTERNOON PER THE
ECMWF. THIS COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED
BY THE OBVIOUS TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COLD FRONT. BUT THE TREND
LOOKS FINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN TERMINALS WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z AND IMPACT IMMEDIATE EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT 20-30
KT WIND GUSTS AROUND I-95 WITH CAPE AND ISLANDS SEEING GUSTS NEAR
40-50 KTS BETWEEN 03-09Z.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRISK NW WINDS INTO THE MORNING FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT OVERALL AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. VFR
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SKC WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING PUSH. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT VSBYS BUT ANTICIPATE
CONDITIONS AROUND 2-4 SM. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END
BY 04Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT TO FAR BEHIND.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW-MODERATE CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY WHILE PASSING SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. NE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING PASSAGE AROUND 8 PM ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE WATERS.
GALE AND STORM FORCE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WAVES BUILDING
UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 FEET. SNOW/RAIN OUTCOMES ESPECIALLY S/SE WILL
RESULT IN VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
SATURDAY...
N/NW WINDS REMAINING BLUSTERY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY. COLDER AIR BUILDING S LENDS A
DEFINITE RISK OF FREEZING SPRAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS INITIALLY 10 TO 15
FEET GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THOSE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATER. SEAS REMAIN
LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MAY BE AREAS AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED MONDAY FOR THE WINDS AND ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY FOR
THE SEAS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS INCREASE THIS EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE
ANY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACT AROUND THE TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE...WHICH IS PARTICULARLY LOW ASTRONOMICALLY. THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE IS HIGHER ASTRONOMICALLY BUT STILL NOT ALL THAT
HIGH AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES GO. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SURGE AND RESIDUE SWELLS TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME EROSION ALONG THE
OUTER CAPE AND THE EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET. ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING IN
SPEED...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A SURGE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THIS MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME VERY MINOR FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS EASY STREET. THE ESTOFS GUIDANCE LOOKED MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE ETSS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE ETSS GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE SUPERIOR FOR
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE PRIOR SATURDAY MORNING SURGE FORECAST
STILL LOOKED GOOD FROM THIS SHIFT/S PERSPECTIVE WITH ONLY VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CAPE COD NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORELINES. WILL COVER THE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND EROSION DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH A
STATEMENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ006-
007.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-256.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
241 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM NEW YORK CITY NORTH AND WEST.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORKS
AROUND 4 PM. AS THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY WORK TO END
SNOW GROWTH OVER THE REGION. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
ACCUMULATION HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO GRASSY AND COLDER
SURFACES WITH ROADWAYS REMAINING WET. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF 16Z...BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THICKEST
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW PULL AWAY TO THE EAST.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SE CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF...AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 23Z. VFR CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD THEREAFTER.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN
-SHSN.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO GALES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR GALES ON THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINER BAYS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
AND THE GALE WARNING HERE COULD BE CHANGED TO AN SCA THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1229 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM NEW YORK CITY NORTH AND WEST.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORKS
AROUND 4 PM. AS THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY WORK TO END
SNOW GROWTH OVER THE REGION. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
ACCUMULATION HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO GRASSY AND COLDER
SURFACES WITH ROADWAYS REMAINING WET. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF 16Z...BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THICKEST
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW PULL AWAY TO THE EAST.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SE CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE CT AND LONG
ISLAND. SNOW SHOULD END AT KNYC TERMINALS BY 19Z...AND AT KGON BY
21Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THIS TIME...AND THEN
VFR CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ENDS BY 20Z. IMPROVING CONDS
THEREAFTER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN
-SHSN.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO GALES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR GALES ON THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINER BAYS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
AND THE GALE WARNING HERE COULD BE CHANGED TO AN SCA THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1151 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM NEW YORK CITY NORTH AND WEST.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORKS
AROUND 4 PM. AS THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY WORK TO END
SNOW GROWTH OVER THE REGION. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
ACCUMULATION HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO GRASSY AND COLDER
SURFACES WITH ROADWAYS REMAINING WET. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF 16Z...BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THICKEST
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW PULL AWAY TO THE EAST.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SE CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES FOR MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL DROP
AS LOW AS 1SM...AND CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 18Z.
VFR EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOP AROUND 15 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS.
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 19-20Z. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE SUB-VFR IN -SHSN.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO GALES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR GALES ON THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINER BAYS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
AND THE GALE WARNING HERE COULD BE CHANGED TO AN SCA THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1040 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MUCH OF THE LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY A COATING TO AN INCH...HAS
BEEN ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH MAINLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOLAR RADIATION FROM EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION ON PRIMARY ROADS. SOME SHELTERED
SECONDARY ROADS COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
THEM TO STAY MAINLY WET AS WELL.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF
14Z...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
READINGS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ARE FORECAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES ENE OF
CAPE HATTERAS NC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THOUGH THE DAY AND
PASS SE OF THE BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT.
THE BEST LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SNOW DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR EFFECTIVELY SHUTS OFF
ANY LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES FOR MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL DROP
AS LOW AS 1SM...AND CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 18Z.
VFR EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOP AROUND 15 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS.
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 19-20Z. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE SUB-VFR IN -SHSN.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE WATERS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWEAKING THE END TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TO MATCH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS
ALREADY POSTED.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
936 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MUCH OF THE LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY A COATING TO AN INCH...HAS
BEEN ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH MAINLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOLAR RADIATION FROM EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION ON PRIMARY ROADS. SOME SHELTERED
SECONDARY ROADS COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
THEM TO STAY MAINLY WET AS WELL.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF
14Z...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
READINGS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ARE FORECAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES ENE OF
CAPE HATTERAS NC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THOUGH THE DAY AND
PASS SE OF THE BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT.
THE BEST LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SNOW DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR EFFECTIVELY SHUTS OFF
ANY LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE DURATION...GENERALLY WITH MVFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH IFR AT TIMES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. VSBYS MAY
VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES FOR CSTL AIRPORTS.
ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND.
NE WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND STRONGEST WINDS...HIGHEST GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AROUND AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UP TO AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AROUND AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE SUB-VFR IN -SHSN.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE WATERS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWEAKING THE END TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TO MATCH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS
ALREADY POSTED.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...DS/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
912 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z
SNDG DID SHOW INVERSION BASE LIFTING ABOUT 2-3 KFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT BELOW IT. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBTLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE OFF SE MIAMI DADE HAVE RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT AREA. THE HRRR AND A COUPLE
OF THE OTHER HI RES MODELS LOCALLY HAD BEEN HINTING AT THIS SINCE
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND IF THEY ARE TRUE TO THE TRENDS, IT
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH
APPROACHES THE AREA. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
GIVEN REPORTS FROM BEACH PATROL AND RIP CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG EAST COAST TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THE RISK WILL INCREASE TO HIGH BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING SO WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT RE-
ASSESS THAT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER
TONIGHT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
KEEP VCSH IN ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AS SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, THEY WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KTS BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AT KAPF, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT NEAR 10
KTS BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BEFORE
A STRETCH OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ATLANTIC BEACHES STARTING TONIGHT AS A NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL ARRIVES AND ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE.
SHORT TERM...
A SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLIER
TODAY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN BUT SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED
WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE MIAMI DADE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE INVERSION.
ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A RISK OF SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
FROM SOUTHERN BROWARD ACROSS MIAMI DADE AND THE ADJACENT WATERS
BEFORE A DRYING PATTERN ENSUES OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID ADJUSTED DOWN
THE POP FOR THIS EVENING DERIVED FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS
AS THEY ARE WETTER THAN OBSERVED TRENDS.
MEANWHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAPE COD COAST IS
LIFTING OUT NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST IN ITS WAKE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS MOVES THE GREAT LAKES CLIPPER OFF THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY MORNING PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHOVE THE MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING...CLEARING OUT SKIES AND
PUTTING AN END TO SHOWER CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY TAKE CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
INCLUDING FLORIDA GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM...
IN FACT, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GENERAL IDEA OF A STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DEEP
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY MID WEEK...AND A STRONG DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS...AND A
RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WOULD FAVOR
FAIR WEATHER UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS INDICATE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN NORMAL WITH HEIGHTS (Z) REACHING THE
90-100% PERCENTILE RANGE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL TO MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO OUR EAST AND FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THOSE LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEK THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND STARTING EARLY TO MID WEEK AND
PEAKING LATE IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 PLUS
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MORNINGS BY THEN AND DAY TIME HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BY THEN ALSO RESULTING IN MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. IN SHORT MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
EXACT DETAILS ON THE EJECTION OF THE NORTHERN MEXICO SYSTEM LATE
NEXT WEEK ARE STILL NOT LOCKED IN AND THIS COULD AFFECT SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EJECTING THE ENERGY WHICH WOULD
BRING A BOUNDARY AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...WEAKER AND FASTER WHICH WOULD LEAVE THE RIDGE MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES. THESE DETAILS
ARE AT THE VERY END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND WILL WORK
THEMSELVES OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
MARINE...
THE ADVERTISED MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY THE NORTH
ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH TONIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH TO ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE
PRESENT TIME IT SHOULD PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ON A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEAST BREEZE. COMBINED
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE GULF
STREAM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED STARTING TOMORROW
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THIS
EVENING UPDATE.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR
ATLANTIC BEACHES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES. RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MODERATE TO
HIGH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING A DRIER AIR
MASS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REACH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS
PARTS OF GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...ALONG WITH TRANSPORT WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 78 63 78 / 20 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 80 66 78 / 20 10 10 0
MIAMI 65 81 64 79 / 20 10 10 0
NAPLES 57 78 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
828 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Clouds continue to slowly decrease from west to east this evening
as weak high pressure settles over the area. HRRR continues to
suggest the band of clouds will continue to decrease in coverage
over the rest of this evening. The combination of a clear sky,
light winds and residual moisture from previous days precipitation
may lead to some patchy fog over parts of our area, but coverage
appears to be too limited to include in the forecast at this
time. As the high shifts off to our east on Sunday, southerly
winds will increase during the day with gusts up to 25 mph in the
afternoon, especially across west central Illinois, which should
help get our warm up underway. Other than some tweaking of the
sky condition and hourly temperatures this evening, the current
forecast has a good handle on the late evening/overnight trends.
As a result, no early evening update will be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Despite passage of a short-wave trough and its associated cold
front, clouds continue to blanket central Illinois this afternoon.
In fact, 20z/2pm visible satellite imagery shows continuous cloud
cover upstream into Wisconsin and the eastern half of Iowa as well.
Based on the trajectory of the clouds, the KILX CWA will remain on
the southwest periphery of the cloud shield through at least early
evening. HRRR has been consistently showing the clouds partially
dissipating from the W/SW toward sunset, resulting in mostly clear
skies across much of the area by mid to late evening. Think this
may be a bit too aggressive with the clearing, so have slowed trends
from previous forecasts. Have started the evening with mostly
cloudy skies everywhere except across the far southwest around
Jacksonville where partly to mostly clear conditions will prevail.
As per the latest HRRR, have then cleared things out from west to
east through the evening, but have maintained mostly cloudy skies
northeast of I-74 until well after midnight. Due to the clearing
skies and diminishing winds, have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a
couple of degrees, with frosty overnight lows in the middle to upper
20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Mild temperatures and wet weather will be the primary features for
much of the upcoming forecast period through next Saturday.
For Sunday, brisk southerly winds around 15 mph and gusts around 25
mph will set up by afternoon west of I-57 as a corridor of strong
moist southwesterly flow sets up over the Plains. This will initiate
showers and a few thunderstorms, potentially creeping eastward into
west-central IL Sunday night. Highs should reach the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees in Springfield and Jacksonville. Mild lows in the
mid 40s expected Sunday night as precipitable water around 1 inch,
or approaching 99th percentile for this time of year, plumes over
central IL.
On Monday, southerly winds expected to increase to 15-20 mph and
gust to 25-30 mph. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s as
warm advection continues, and rich precipitable water continues to
stream over Illinois. Still, weak forcing appears it will result in
modest precipitation chances and amounts, mainly I-72 northward.
The moisture plume looks to remain in the vicinity through midweek
as a frontal boundary lingers just to the northwest, and a series of
disturbances track along the front bringing periods of heavier rain.
Some uncertainty remain in the location of the front through midweek
and this will modulate the exact timing and location of
precipitation through midweek, however likely to categorical (80%+)
chance of precipitation included in the forecast for Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, and current precipitation amounts 2-2.5
inches I-72 southward expected through this period, with 0.5 to 2.0
inches to the north. Instability pattern indicates occasional
thunderstorms a possibility. A hydrologic outlook remains in effect
to address the heavy rain concern during this period. Highs through
midweek expected to remain mild, from around 60 to 65 degrees.
Next weekend...a cut-off low that should be meandering over
Mexico midweek is progged to eject northeast toward central IL.
Unfortunately, the timing and track of this feature is highly
uncertain as evidenced by a variety of differing model and
ensemble solutions available at this time. This feature will have
impacts on the position of the frontal boundary, temperatures, and
precipitation for central IL. With the front position still a
significant question, PoP`s generally remain in place over most of
the forecast area into Saturday. High temperatures forecast from
around 60 to 65, but this will be subject to change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
MVFR cigs expected to become VFR at most of our sites this evening
with the improving trend starting out in southwest Illinois and
eventually working its way thru the remainder of the forecast
area. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for some brief
MVFR vsbys in fog around dawn as winds are expected to remain
light into the morning hours with generally clear skies. Last
couple of runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus trying
to develop near KBMI at 11-12z but vsby restrictions don`t look
as bad as what we had this morning. For now will carry a scattered
group but keep vsbys at 6sm or greater with this forecast
issuance. Surface winds will become light and variable after
dark this evening and then shift into a southerly direction on
Sunday and increase to between 15 and 22 kts by afternoon with
gusts around 25 kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
520 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Despite passage of a short-wave trough and its associated cold
front, clouds continue to blanket central Illinois this afternoon.
In fact, 20z/2pm visible satellite imagery shows continuous cloud
cover upstream into Wisconsin and the eastern half of Iowa as well.
Based on the trajectory of the clouds, the KILX CWA will remain on
the southwest periphery of the cloud shield through at least early
evening. HRRR has been consistently showing the clouds partially
dissipating from the W/SW toward sunset, resulting in mostly clear
skies across much of the area by mid to late evening. Think this
may be a bit too aggressive with the clearing, so have slowed trends
from previous forecasts. Have started the evening with mostly
cloudy skies everywhere except across the far southwest around
Jacksonville where partly to mostly clear conditions will prevail.
As per the latest HRRR, have then cleared things out from west to
east through the evening, but have maintained mostly cloudy skies
northeast of I-74 until well after midnight. Due to the clearing
skies and diminishing winds, have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a
couple of degrees, with frosty overnight lows in the middle to upper
20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Mild temperatures and wet weather will be the primary features for
much of the upcoming forecast period through next Saturday.
For Sunday, brisk southerly winds around 15 mph and gusts around 25
mph will set up by afternoon west of I-57 as a corridor of strong
moist southwesterly flow sets up over the Plains. This will initiate
showers and a few thunderstorms, potentially creeping eastward into
west-central IL Sunday night. Highs should reach the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees in Springfield and Jacksonville. Mild lows in the
mid 40s expected Sunday night as precipitable water around 1 inch,
or approaching 99th percentile for this time of year, plumes over
central IL.
On Monday, southerly winds expected to increase to 15-20 mph and
gust to 25-30 mph. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s as
warm advection continues, and rich precipitable water continues to
stream over Illinois. Still, weak forcing appears it will result in
modest precipitation chances and amounts, mainly I-72 northward.
The moisture plume looks to remain in the vicinity through midweek
as a frontal boundary lingers just to the northwest, and a series of
disturbances track along the front bringing periods of heavier rain.
Some uncertainty remain in the location of the front through midweek
and this will modulate the exact timing and location of
precipitation through midweek, however likely to categorical (80%+)
chance of precipitation included in the forecast for Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, and current precipitation amounts 2-2.5
inches I-72 southward expected through this period, with 0.5 to 2.0
inches to the north. Instability pattern indicates occasional
thunderstorms a possibility. A hydrologic outlook remains in effect
to address the heavy rain concern during this period. Highs through
midweek expected to remain mild, from around 60 to 65 degrees.
Next weekend...a cut-off low that should be meandering over
Mexico midweek is progged to eject northeast toward central IL.
Unfortunately, the timing and track of this feature is highly
uncertain as evidenced by a variety of differing model and
ensemble solutions available at this time. This feature will have
impacts on the position of the frontal boundary, temperatures, and
precipitation for central IL. With the front position still a
significant question, PoP`s generally remain in place over most of
the forecast area into Saturday. High temperatures forecast from
around 60 to 65, but this will be subject to change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
MVFR cigs expected to become VFR at most of our sites this evening
with the improving trend starting out in southwest Illinois and
eventually working its way thru the remainder of the forecast
area. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for some brief
MVFR vsbys in fog around dawn as winds are expected to remain
light into the morning hours with generally clear skies. Last
couple of runs of the HRRR model indicates some stratus trying
to develop near KBMI at 11-12z but vsby restrictions don`t look
as bad as what we had this morning. For now will carry a scattered
group but keep vsbys at 6sm or greater with this forecast
issuance. Surface winds will become light and variable after
dark this evening and then shift into a southerly direction on
Sunday and increase to between 15 and 22 kts by afternoon with
gusts around 25 kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...
200 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE SHARPLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON SOME
PAVED SURFACES.
THE CENTER OF THE MAIN CLIPPER SHORT WAVE IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS ITS DRIVING JET SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
THIS EVENING...HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL MAXIMIZE OVER
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED ON UPSTREAM MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM OMAHA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE SOUTH OF THE VORTICITY CENTER. AS THIS
CATCHES UP TO THE LIFT AND SATURATION...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
PRESENTLY IN MN/NORTHERN IA SHOULD SHOW SOUTHEAST EXPANSION AND
PROBABLY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WHICH
CORRELATES TO WHEN IT IS OVER THE AREA.
HAVE ONLY MADE FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO HOURLY TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WET SNOW THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY BE A MIX WITH RAIN...AND TOWARD
I-39 IT COULD REMAIN A MIX OR EVEN JUST RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
BECAUSE OF THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FORCING AND FOCUS...THE
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO LAST TWO HOURS OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
THE MODERATE INTENSITY EVEN A SHORTER SPAN. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY...
VISIBILITY...AND HOURLY SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE PRIMARY TIMING
FOR THE CHICAGO METRO LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WETTER QUALITY OF THE SNOW AND TEMPERATURES OF 31-35 SHOULD LIMIT
MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT...THOUGH GRASSY SURFACES WILL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK COAT IN NORTH OF I-80 COMMUNITIES. SOUTH OF
I-80 MORE LIMITED TIME AND FORCING FOR SATURATION WILL PROVIDE
MORE VIRGA /RADAR ECHOES NOT REACHING THE GROUND/ THAN
PRECIPITATION...SO NO ACCUMULATION FORECAST.
LOSS OF ICE HAPPENS RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND LIFT STILL ARE
PROVIDED ON RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS EVEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. SO
CONTINUE FORECAST DRIZZLE CHANCES. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
INCHING UP LATE TONIGHT SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ON FREEZING DRIZZLE
BUT DO INDICATE THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST WHERE OUR
DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OUR 30-32 FOR A FEW HOURS.
HAVE TRENDED MORE CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE DONE SO AS THE CLIPPER BROADENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND KEEPS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
IT COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL WITH 40 EAST TO 45 WEST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 PM CST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SHIFT TOWARDS A WARM AND ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS
BUT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE OUR
COLDEST NIGHT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME ANCHORED
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH STRONG EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY THIS WILL MEAN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. AS DEEP TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WHILE ITS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS DO
SHOW INSTABILITY BUILDING THIS FAR NORTH SO A THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY ON TUESDAY FOR OUR
AREA. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CUT OFF ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AROUND
MIDWEEK AND EVENTUALLY MEANDER ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT BUT IT
DOES APPEAR WE WILL GENERALLY STAY IN A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE TAFS ARE:
- WINDS FLUCTUATING FROM SSE TO SSW AT 7-8KT THIS AFTERNOON.
- TWO HOUR PERIOD OR SO OF SNOW LATE THIS EVENING WITH IFR
VISIBILITY AND BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY. SNOW MAY VERY BRIEFLY START
AS A MIX WITH RAIN.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING
THE SNOW INCLUDING WITH TEMPERATURES AT 32.
- MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY WITH IFR POTENTIAL WITH PRECIPITATION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE DEFINED. THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATION IN THE DIRECTION
AROUND DUE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK SHOT...LESS THAN
TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOURS...ESPECIALLY OF THE MODERATE SNOW
INTENSITY WHICH COULD BE ONE HOUR OR LESS. CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE
TIMING IS MEDIUM-HIGH AS THIS SYSTEM IS ONE THAT CAN BE WELL-
TIMED...AND IF ANYTHING SOME OF THE SNOW TIME MAY NEED TO BE
SHORTENED. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITHIN THIS SNOW
AREA WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT LASTING NATURE
OF THE SNOW...TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE INCH IS FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LIFT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 32 TO 34 ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY OVERNIGHT SO THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT
ZERO BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT OCCURRING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK
TO INCH UP BY DAYBREAK.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
213 PM CST
A CLIPPER LIKE SNOW SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND...THEN
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
EVENTUALLY SET UP NEAR BERMUDA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN TO
AROUND 30 KT SUNDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 AND
OCCASIONALLY 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY HELPING SPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
THE LAKE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ON TUESDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
200 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...
200 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE SHARPLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON SOME
PAVED SURFACES.
THE CENTER OF THE MAIN CLIPPER SHORT WAVE IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS ITS DRIVING JET SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
THIS EVENING...HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL MAXIMIZE OVER
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED ON UPSTREAM MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM OMAHA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE SOUTH OF THE VORTICITY CENTER. AS THIS
CATCHES UP TO THE LIFT AND SATURATION...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
PRESENTLY IN MN/NORTHERN IA SHOULD SHOW SOUTHEAST EXPANSION AND
PROBABLY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WHICH
CORRELATES TO WHEN IT IS OVER THE AREA.
HAVE ONLY MADE FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO HOURLY TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WET SNOW THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY BE A MIX WITH RAIN...AND TOWARD
I-39 IT COULD REMAIN A MIX OR EVEN JUST RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
BECAUSE OF THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FORCING AND FOCUS...THE
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO LAST TWO HOURS OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
THE MODERATE INTENSITY EVEN A SHORTER SPAN. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY...
VISIBILITY...AND HOURLY SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE PRIMARY TIMING
FOR THE CHICAGO METRO LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WETTER QUALITY OF THE SNOW AND TEMPERATURES OF 31-35 SHOULD LIMIT
MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT...THOUGH GRASSY SURFACES WILL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK COAT IN NORTH OF I-80 COMMUNITIES. SOUTH OF
I-80 MORE LIMITED TIME AND FORCING FOR SATURATION WILL PROVIDE
MORE VIRGA /RADAR ECHOES NOT REACHING THE GROUND/ THAN
PRECIPITATION...SO NO ACCUMULATION FORECAST.
LOSS OF ICE HAPPENS RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND LIFT STILL ARE
PROVIDED ON RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS EVEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. SO
CONTINUE FORECAST DRIZZLE CHANCES. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
INCHING UP LATE TONIGHT SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ON FREEZING DRIZZLE
BUT DO INDICATE THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST WHERE OUR
DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OUR 30-32 FOR A FEW HOURS.
HAVE TRENDED MORE CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE DONE SO AS THE CLIPPER BROADENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND KEEPS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
IT COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL WITH 40 EAST TO 45 WEST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MORE
AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. LOCALLY THIS LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SO...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS FAIRLY
WARM...IT ALSO LOOKS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST MENTIONS CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY THE 00 UTC GFS IS FASTER
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEREAS OTHER
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. ULTIMATELY
THIS TIMING WILL HAVE INFLUENCES ON SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE FRONT DOES PUSH
THROUGH...NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE TAFS ARE:
- WINDS FLUCTUATING FROM SSE TO SSW AT 7-8KT THIS AFTERNOON.
- TWO HOUR PERIOD OR SO OF SNOW LATE THIS EVENING WITH IFR
VISIBILITY AND BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY. SNOW MAY VERY BRIEFLY START
AS A MIX WITH RAIN.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING
THE SNOW INCLUDING WITH TEMPERATURES AT 32.
- MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY WITH IFR POTENTIAL WITH PRECIPITATION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE DEFINED. THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATION IN THE DIRECTION
AROUND DUE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK SHOT...LESS THAN
TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOURS...ESPECIALLY OF THE MODERATE SNOW
INTENSITY WHICH COULD BE ONE HOUR OR LESS. CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE
TIMING IS MEDIUM-HIGH AS THIS SYSTEM IS ONE THAT CAN BE WELL-
TIMED...AND IF ANYTHING SOME OF THE SNOW TIME MAY NEED TO BE
SHORTENED. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITHIN THIS SNOW
AREA WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT LASTING NATURE
OF THE SNOW...TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE INCH IS FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LIFT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 32 TO 34 ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY OVERNIGHT SO THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT
ZERO BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT OCCURRING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK
TO INCH UP BY DAYBREAK.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
347 AM CST
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE
RULE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A PERIOD OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SETS UP NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD EAST TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE/CLIPPER ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TODAY...THEN BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
CLIPPER ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE LAKE THEN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND SLOW MOVING SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURES WILL EJECT FROM THE MOUNTAIN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT A RAMP-UP IN WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT DOES
INTENSIFY JUST NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE LAKE
WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS IS ALSO A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR FOG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR SPREADING OVER THE COLDER LAKE.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1025 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Thanks to subsidence beneath a ridge of high pressure and a light
northeasterly low-level flow, the low clouds that blanketed
central Illinois yesterday into last night have temporarily
shifted S/SW of the KILX CWA. 16z/10am visible satellite imagery
shows the cloud deck generally along and southwest of a
Macomb...to Jacksonville...to Flora line...with mostly sunny skies
noted elsewhere around central Illinois. High-res models show
these low clouds gradually dissipating today: however, they will
eventually be replaced by increasing mid/high clouds from the
west. End result will be mostly sunny skies across much of the
area through early afternoon, followed by increasing clouds this
afternoon. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle
40s. Updated forecast has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
High pressure will progress across IL today from NW to SE. Dry air
flowing into the area on N-NE winds will bring some clearing to our
forecast area northeast of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Mattoon.
Mixing of dry air from the mid-levels could provide some peeks of
sun farther south than that, but mostly cloudy conditions are
generally expected from Springfield to Effingham to Lawrenceville.
As the surface ridge axis moves into Indiana this afternoon, winds
will become southerly from west to east, helping start a return
flow of clouds and moisture northward. That southerly flow will
also help our southwestern areas warm a little more than
elsewhere, with highs in the upper 40s toward Jacksonville.
Northeast areas will on the lower end of our temp range today,
with around 40 for highs near Danville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Forecast has taken another turn for tonight with the chances for
precip returning as the last wave dives into the Midwest under
northwesterly flow. Precip chances are better in the north, but the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF and the 4km WRF are all persisting in some activity
tonight for most of Central Illinois before dawn. Saturday and
Sunday are remaining dry, with highs into the 50s for Sunday as the
ridge over the western CONUS shifts all the warm air into the
Midwest. Warm up really takes hold by Monday with temps soaring into
the 60s, but is accompanied by a return to a wet forecast with pops
creeping back in. The warm up is accompanied by a pattern shift to a
more active southwesterly flow as a large wave of energy digs into
the southwestern CONUS. A series of small waves ejecting out of the
swrn low will bring a rather wet forecast to next week, riding along
a developing baroclinic zone draped over the Ohio River Valley.
Changes in the forecast through the week, in particular the end of
the week will center around northerly extent of the precip.
For now, however, next week is dominated by rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Advancing high pressure has helped clearing progress from
northern IL into central IL over the last few hours. VFR skies
have developed at PIA, BMI, and CMI. Satellite loops and the
latest HRRR model show the clearing should progress to over the
southern TAF sites of SPI and DEC in a couple hours, then stall
out just to the south of SPI to Effingham.
Once the surface ridge axis moves east into Indiana, boundary
layer winds will shift from NE to SSE. That will cause the clouds
to begin a return northward for tonight, as a cold front reaches
IL. A few light rain or snow showers may develop at the northern
terminal sites of PIA, BMI and CMI this evening. No snow
accumulation is expected, with any precipitation being very light.
The warm ground would likely melt any light snow that does fall.
Cloud heights appear to remain VFR this evening as the clouds
return, but MVFR conditions will be possible during any precip.
Late tonight, winds will shift to the NW behind the cold front,
and increase to 10-12kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
High pressure will progress across IL today from NW to SE. Dry air
flowing into the area on N-NE winds will bring some clearing to our
forecast area northeast of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Mattoon.
Mixing of dry air from the mid-levels could provide some peeks of
sun farther south than that, but mostly cloudy conditions are
generally expected from Springfield to Effingham to Lawrenceville.
As the surface ridge axis moves into Indiana this afternoon, winds
will become southerly from west to east, helping start a return
flow of clouds and moisture northward. That southerly flow will
also help our southwestern areas warm a little more than
elsewhere, with highs in the upper 40s toward Jacksonville.
Northeast areas will on the lower end of our temp range today,
with around 40 for highs near Danville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Forecast has taken another turn for tonight with the chances for
precip returning as the last wave dives into the Midwest under
northwesterly flow. Precip chances are better in the north, but the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF and the 4km WRF are all persisting in some activity
tonight for most of Central Illinois before dawn. Saturday and
Sunday are remaining dry, with highs into the 50s for Sunday as the
ridge over the western CONUS shifts all the warm air into the
Midwest. Warm up really takes hold by Monday with temps soaring into
the 60s, but is accompanied by a return to a wet forecast with pops
creeping back in. The warm up is accompanied by a pattern shift to a
more active southwesterly flow as a large wave of energy digs into
the southwestern CONUS. A series of small waves ejecting out of the
swrn low will bring a rather wet forecast to next week, riding along
a developing baroclinic zone draped over the Ohio River Valley.
Changes in the forecast through the week, in particular the end of
the week will center around northerly extent of the precip.
For now, however, next week is dominated by rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Advancing high pressure has helped clearing progress from
northern IL into central IL over the last few hours. VFR skies
have developed at PIA, BMI, and CMI. Satellite loops and the
latest HRRR model show the clearing should progress to over the
southern TAF sites of SPI and DEC in a couple hours, then stall
out just to the south of SPI to Effingham.
Once the surface ridge axis moves east into Indiana, boundary
layer winds will shift from NE to SSE. That will cause the clouds
to begin a return northward for tonight, as a cold front reaches
IL. A few light rain or snow showers may develop at the northern
terminal sites of PIA, BMI and CMI this evening. No snow
accumulation is expected, with any precipitation being very light.
The warm ground would likely melt any light snow that does fall.
Cloud heights appear to remain VFR this evening as the clouds
return, but MVFR conditions will be possible during any precip.
Late tonight, winds will shift to the NW behind the cold front,
and increase to 10-12kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1102 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Water vapor loop indicating a weak shortwave tracking southeast
across east central IL this evening coupled with a surface
boundary stretching from east central Indiana southwest thru
southern IL has brought an area of rain and snow across the
forecast area early this evening. Radar returns and surface
observations continue to point towards a rapid decrease in precip
across east central and southeast Illinois over the next couple of
hours. High pressure is then forecast to drift into the region
Friday morning with a gradual clearing trend working its way into
the forecast area. Will have to keep an eye on the clouds to our
north as satellite data and upstream surface observations
indicating some breaks developing and if that were to occur before
sunrise, we may see some fog develop in the areas that do clear.
However, forecast soundings are still not very optimistic on that
happening until just after sunrise Friday.
Have already sent out an update to address the band of rain and
snow in eastern Illinois but with some additional adjustments made
to the precip trends in the east and southeast, will send out
another update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
19z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1010mb low over Arkansas, with a
trough axis extending northward into central Illinois. Light rain
continues to fall in the vicinity of the trough, but has now pushed
mainly east of the Illinois River. This feature is progged to be
located along the I-57 corridor by 00z, so am expecting some light
precip to linger across the E/SE CWA into the evening hours. As
winds become northerly on the back side of the trough, the
atmosphere will cool sufficiently to support a light rain/snow mix.
Based on latest trends and HRRR forecast, have included low chance
PoPs along/east of a Bloomington to Flora line this evening. Will
mention rain or snow north of the I-70 corridor: however, no snow
accumulation is expected. Once the trough pushes off to the east,
cloudy and cool conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
night with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s and lower
30s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
High pressure will move quickly across the state Friday with
partly sunny skies for the late morning and early afternoon and
slightly milder temperatures. Another storm system passing across
Wisconsin Friday night, with a trailing cold front and shortwave
passing through central IL will increase mid and high clouds and
southerly winds late in the day Friday, and bring at least a slight
chance for precipitation or drizzle overnight. There is some
question about precipitation type as temperatures will cool off to
become somewhat marginal for snow late in the night, however
precipitation should be mainly rain throughout central IL, with
perhaps a brief change to a mix of snow and rain toward the end of
precipitation Saturday morning. Even with temperatures cooling close
to freezing late in the night, moisture depth may drop off too
dramatically for anything more than liquid drizzle to form at that
point.
A trend toward warmer temperatures is then in store for Saturday
through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge shifts eastward to the
central and eastern U.S. Highs on Saturday range from 45 in
Galesburg to 55 in Lawrenceville...and are expected to increase to
the mid and upper 60s by Tuesday. Meanwhile, lows Saturday night are
expected to cool to a few degrees below freezing, but should trend
upward to the low 50s by Monday night.
A series of small waves ejecting out of a trough over the
western states will bring periodic chances for showers and some
thunderstorms through central and southeast IL for much of the
upcoming work week. Temperatures should remain mild, with highs in
the 50s or 60s through midweek, and lows generally 40s or low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Timing of clearing over the forecast area during the early morning
hours the main forecast challenge. Backedge of cloud deck was just
southeast of Moline and tracking south-southeast at around 15 mph.
Based on this movement, PIA and BMI should clear around 09z-11z
and around 11z at CMI. If we do see some clearing take place in
these areas, there is enough boundary layer moisture around from
the recent rain and snow, combined with the light wind flow, some
fog may form around dawn. Confidence on that occurring at this
point still remains low enough to keep out of the TAFS. After that,
boundary layer winds become quite light as high pressure tracks
over the area and eventually to our east by afternoon. The
southward push to the cloud deck by later tomorrow morning and
afternoon has slowed considerably which may keep at least bkn cigs
in the 1500-2000 foot level at SPI and DEC.
As the next system tracks southeast into the lower Great Lakes
late tomorrow afternoon, the boundary layer flow becomes more
southerly, which may bring the clouds that pushed to our south
back over the area later in the afternoon. Confidence on that
scenario is low at this time but something to watch for later
forecasts. As a result, will hold on to the idea of mainly VFR
conditions over the northern TAF sites, and carry sct clouds over
SPI and DEC with bases around 2000-2500 feet in the afternoon.
Surface winds not much of a factor thru this forecast period with
winds light and variable overnight and then becoming light
southerly tomorrow with speeds of less than 10 kts. Look for
winds to back into the southeast tomorrow night at 7 to 12 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A DRY DAY TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES START WARMING AGAIN. A WARMER AND
WETTER PATTERN SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE ALL
THAT/S LEFT OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE THE RULE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITHIN AN HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT THEN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS WHICH PRODUCED HIGHS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS AND PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA AND
THROUGH WISCONSIN TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER
FORCING ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY HUG THE FREEZING LINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE
NORTH INITIALLY WHERE COULD SEE ALL SNOW FOR FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTS IN TO CHANGE TO A MIX. FOR AMOUNTS
GENERALLY WENT AROUND HALF AN INCH NORTH TO A DUSTING OR SO ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70. EXPECT PROFILES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES TO BE
TOO WARM TO ACCUMULATE MUCH.
UPPER RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS WARMING EACH
DAY AND GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH
SUGGEST POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ALSO SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES CUT OFF
THIS SYSTEM OVER TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF...THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING
DRY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER EXCEPT
PERHAPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW AT BMG TO START OFF. AFTER
THAT...LAMP MOS ALSO SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR 12Z-
14Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR 16Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
22Z-23Z AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SO...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE REPORTING
SNOW...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS ARE STILL RECEIVING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER FRI 09Z. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW IS HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BASED THIS
FORCING WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. AS WARMER AIR HAS SLOWLY WORKED
ITS WAY NORTH...WENT RAIN/SNOW NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING MOST AREAS.
AFTER SUNSET SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...SO WENT A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION
THERE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH.
MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME FRIDAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PART OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS BOTH SHOWING
DECENT FORCING...WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH AND LOWER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ONCE AGAIN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WILL GO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTHWEST HALF AND SNOW NORTHEAST FOR NOW. KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO JUST A FEW TENTHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. /GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG THOUGH WITH ITS FORCING
COMPARED TO OTHERS AND IS SHOWING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THAT
HIGH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING SATURDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING DECREASES DURING THE DAY SO POPS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH
SUGGEST POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ALSO SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES CUT OFF
THIS SYSTEM OVER TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF...THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING
DRY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER EXCEPT
PERHAPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW AT BMG TO START OFF. AFTER
THAT...LAMP MOS ALSO SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR 12Z-
14Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR 16Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
22Z-23Z AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SO...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE REPORTING
SNOW...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS ARE STILL RECEIVING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER FRI 09Z. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW IS HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BASED THIS
FORCING WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. AS WARMER AIR HAS SLOWLY WORKED
ITS WAY NORTH...WENT RAIN/SNOW NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING MOST AREAS.
AFTER SUNSET SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...SO WENT A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION
THERE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH.
MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME FRIDAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PART OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS BOTH SHOWING
DECENT FORCING...WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH AND LOWER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ONCE AGAIN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WILL GO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTHWEST HALF AND SNOW NORTHEAST FOR NOW. KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO JUST A FEW TENTHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. /GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG THOUGH WITH ITS FORCING
COMPARED TO OTHERS AND IS SHOWING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THAT
HIGH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING SATURDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING DECREASES DURING THE DAY SO POPS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH
SUGGEST POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ALSO SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES CUT OFF
THIS SYSTEM OVER TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF...THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING
DRY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER EXCEPT
PERHAPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW AT BMG TO START OFF. AFTER
THAT...LAMP MOS ALSO SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR 12Z-
14Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR 16Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
22Z-23Z AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
AREA RADARS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO LINE UP THE
BEST WITH THE FORCING ON THE 295K THETA SURFACE BASED ON THE RAP
TRENDS. THUS LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF DUBUQUE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.
TONIGHT THE RAP SHOWS THE BEST FORCING ON THE 295K THETA SURFACE
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE
STRONGER FORCING IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A WATERLOO IOWA TO GALESBURG
ILLINOIS LINE. THUS THE BETTER POPS WILL BE NORTH OF THIS LINE.
COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO DEVELOP THAT MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
NORTHEAST OF A DUBUQUE TO STERLING LINE. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE WELL UNDER AN INCH.
THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE FORCING INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL END
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME
LINGERING WEAK FORCING MAY RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE ENDING.
ON SATURDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
SPRING WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED...AND SO WILL LOW LEVEL POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. I DO NOT
BELIEVE IT WILL RAIN ALL THAT OFTEN IN THE WEEK AHEAD...BUT IN THE
WORLD OF BLENDED MODEL DATA...WE ARE OCCASIONALLY RELEGATED TO
FORECASTING NEARLY CONTINUOUS LOW RAIN CHANCES...AS MODELS OFFER
SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR. ONE THING IS SOMEWHAT
CERTAIN HERE...IT WILL BE MILD...AND DESPITE ANY CLOUDS THE
SUSTAINED WARM UP WILL NOT BE HELD BACK ANY LOWER THAN THE 50S GIVEN
DEWPOINTS RISING TO THAT LEVEL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR UNORGANIZED
THROUGH MONDAY AS BROAD WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS HINT AT BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT TIMES. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
RAIN CHANCE...THAT MAY IN THE END BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
THIS IS GOOD FOR THE SIMPLE FACT THAT WE NEED FURTHER TIME THIS WEEK
TO MELT ANY REMAINING FROST IN THE GROUND PRIOR TO ANY SPRING HEAVY
RAINS. THOSE RAINS APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING FLOODING RAINS TO THE MID
TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WITH POCKETS
OF VFR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z/05 WITH MORE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AFT 00Z/05 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI WITH THE
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AT KDBQ. AFT 06Z/05 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS...THERE MAY
OR MAY NOT BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KDBQ AND
KMLI.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1134 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
A shortwave trough will move from Montana early this morning then
southeast across the Northern and Central Plains today. The upper
trough deepens as it moves over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Surface high pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes into
northeast Kansas will move off to the east as low pressure deepens
in the Western High Plains then moves east through the day along
with an associated cool frontal boundary. Pressure gradient will
tighten through the morning into the afternoon hours along with
mixing down stronger winds aloft will yield winds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. High clouds will also increase through the
day across central and eastern Kansas. RAP soundings show mixing
from 800mb-850 mb this afternoon across the area with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s expected. The frontal boundary is expected to
move southeast into the forecast area shifting the winds to the west
and northwest behind it. The front is forecast to extend from
southwest Iowa to near Council Grove then southwest to low pressure
over the Texas Panhandle early this evening. The front will move
through the remainder of northeast and east central Kansas through
the evening hours with high pressure building into the area
overnight. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
fall into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area with lows
in the upper 30s in east central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Dry and mild conditions are expected for Saturday as a weak mid-
level ridge will slide over the central U.S. with surface high
pressure over the region. Expect high temperatures to reach into the
low/mid 60s with model soundings showing very dry conditions in the
low/mid levels of the atmosphere. While minimum relative humidity
values in the afternoon will likely be in the low to upper 20
percent range (causing a heightened concern for fire weather), winds
are expected to be rather light throughout the day as they shift
from north to southeast.
The weather pattern will become more active beginning Saturday night
as the first of several embedded waves skims across the area. This
first embedded wave could bring some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday with another weak
embedded wave supporting the development of additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Sunday into
Monday models show a mid-level trough over the western U.S. quickly
advancing toward the central U.S., which will help to push an area
of surface low pressure into the High Plains region and significantly
increase the pressure gradient over the forecast area. As a result,
expect very breezy southerly winds on Sunday and Monday, which will
support good warm-air advection and high temperatures soaring into
the upper 60s to middle 70s by Monday. As the mid-level trough lifts
north of the area Monday night into Tuesday, it will help to push a
strong dryline toward central Kansas with a cold front moving
eastward across the forecast area Monday night. With these features
in place, models show a decent amount of instability setting up
across central Kansas (CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg) with 0-6km
bulk shear values of 25-35 kts. As a result, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible primarily across north central and central
Kansas late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. However, the main
limiting factor will be whether or not there is enough available
moisture in central Kansas to support thunderstorm development, as
the better moisture may be focused a bit further east.
As the mid-level trough advances toward the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday with the surface cold front pushing well east of the area,
expect predominantly dry conditions with the exception of far east
central Kansas that may continue to be clipped by some scattered
showers Tuesday through Wednesday as the cold front looks to stall
out along the Mississippi River. Mild conditions should persist
through the week with highs prevailing in the upper 50s to upper 60s
through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will advance into
the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday, supporting dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR conditions expected. Minor wind gusts should develop at all
sites early with some decreases just ahead of a frontal passage
around 01Z. Weak front will keep winds relatively light behind the
front, but should be enough wind aloft to keep 10-13Z BR from
forming.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
South winds increasing by afternoon into the 15 to 20 mph range with
gusts to around 30 mph expected. Afternoon relative humidity is
expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range and could even go a
bit lower especially if temperatures are higher than forecast and
drier air mixes down to the surface. Have gone a little lower with
afternoon dewpoints this afternoon across the area more toward the
RAP which has performed best lately. That said have expanded the Red
Flag Warning for the whole CWA this afternoon given winds, low RH
and dry fuels.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1005 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING WITH CLEARING WHERE RAP
SHOWS STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH
SOUTHERNLY GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER
OVER OUR CWA WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WE WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD SUPPORT 70F TEMPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IF THE FRONT HOLDS OF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION OVER THE
CWA WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH BUILDING
IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
MOIST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BL WILL RESULT IN STRATUS SPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. SREF/NAM ARE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR FOG...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING STILL SEEMS TO SUPPORT MAINLY A
STRATUS EVENT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AND I TRENDED
LOWS UP PARTICULARLY IN OUR EAST WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD
ON AS DRIER AIR IN THE BL BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH WEAK POCKETS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO BOTH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS IN SOUTHERLY BL FLOW...AND A VERY WARM AIR MASS
ADVECTING NORTH (HIGHS IN 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80F).
A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING GREATLY ON POSITION. NAM INDICATES
A WESTWARD MOVEMENT IN DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING
IN THE WEST AND STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOLUTION ALSO
LEADS TO MUCH HIGHER TDS IN OUR EAST...AND AS A RESULT HIGHER CAPE
AND WEAKER CINH. PARCELS WOULD TEND TO BE ELEVATED AND IF THE DRY
LINE DOES NOT BACK WESTWARD THE AIR MASS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN OUR CWA...WHICH IS THE
SUPPORTED SOLUTION OF GFS/ECMWF. EVEN IF NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES THE
DRY NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT I COULD SEE
ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. WITH THE NAM SOLUTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BASED ON ADJUSTED ML CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
RANGE IN OUR EAST AND GOOD SPEED SHEAR (0-6KM SHEER: 35-40
KT).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. 00Z GFS A LITTLE FASTER BUT MORE CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS
TO HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS WHICH I LIKE. STILL LOOKING FOR EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
EARLY TO MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY NOW
BEING ADVERTISED AS WELL SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO
LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IS THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY WE COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET (<20 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS
>25 MPH) GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREELEY COUNTY TO
GRAHAM COUNTY IN THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S (WEST TO EAST)LOOKS GOOD PER
850MB TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THUS A DRY FORECAST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT BOTH FROM THE WEST
AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD..BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER RH DOESNT APPEAR TO DROP TO 15 PERCENT...AND
EVEN THEN IT IS UNLIKELY WE WOULD REACH 3HR OF WIND/RH CRITERIA.
LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SUNDAY IN OUR WEST...HOWEVER ANY GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE TDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
A shortwave trough will move from Montana early this morning then
southeast across the Northern and Central Plains today. The upper
trough deepens as it moves over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Surface high pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes into
northeast Kansas will move off to the east as low pressure deepens
in the Western High Plains then moves east through the day along
with an associated cool frontal boundary. Pressure gradient will
tighten through the morning into the afternoon hours along with
mixing down stronger winds aloft will yield winds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. High clouds will also increase through the
day across central and eastern Kansas. RAP soundings show mixing
from 800mb-850 mb this afternoon across the area with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s expected. The frontal boundary is expected to
move southeast into the forecast area shifting the winds to the west
and northwest behind it. The front is forecast to extend from
southwest Iowa to near Council Grove then southwest to low pressure
over the Texas Panhandle early this evening. The front will move
through the remainder of northeast and east central Kansas through
the evening hours with high pressure building into the area
overnight. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
fall into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area with lows
in the upper 30s in east central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Dry and mild conditions are expected for Saturday as a weak mid-
level ridge will slide over the central U.S. with surface high
pressure over the region. Expect high temperatures to reach into the
low/mid 60s with model soundings showing very dry conditions in the
low/mid levels of the atmosphere. While minimum relative humidity
values in the afternoon will likely be in the low to upper 20
percent range (causing a heightened concern for fire weather), winds
are expected to be rather light throughout the day as they shift
from north to southeast.
The weather pattern will become more active beginning Saturday night
as the first of several embedded waves skims across the area. This
first embedded wave could bring some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday with another weak
embedded wave supporting the development of additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Sunday into
Monday models show a mid-level trough over the western U.S. quickly
advancing toward the central U.S., which will help to push an area
of surface low pressure into the High Plains region and significantly
increase the pressure gradient over the forecast area. As a result,
expect very breezy southerly winds on Sunday and Monday, which will
support good warm-air advection and high temperatures soaring into
the upper 60s to middle 70s by Monday. As the mid-level trough lifts
north of the area Monday night into Tuesday, it will help to push a
strong dryline toward central Kansas with a cold front moving
eastward across the forecast area Monday night. With these features
in place, models show a decent amount of instability setting up
across central Kansas (CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg) with 0-6km
bulk shear values of 25-35 kts. As a result, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible primarily across north central and central
Kansas late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. However, the main
limiting factor will be whether or not there is enough available
moisture in central Kansas to support thunderstorm development, as
the better moisture may be focused a bit further east.
As the mid-level trough advances toward the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday with the surface cold front pushing well east of the area,
expect predominantly dry conditions with the exception of far east
central Kansas that may continue to be clipped by some scattered
showers Tuesday through Wednesday as the cold front looks to stall
out along the Mississippi River. Mild conditions should persist
through the week with highs prevailing in the upper 50s to upper 60s
through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will advance into
the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday, supporting dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. The main concern
will be winds today as they increase in the 16Z-18Z period from
the south and southwest to around 16 kts with gusts to 25 kts by
18Z. A frontal boundary will shift the winds at MHK to the
northwest by 23Z at to the west at TOP and FOE around 00Z-02Z.
Winds decrease to less than 10 kts by 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
South winds increasing by afternoon into the 15 to 20 mph range with
gusts to around 30 mph expected. Afternoon relative humidity is
expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range and could even go a
bit lower especially if temperatures are higher than forecast and
drier air mixes down to the surface. Have gone a little lower with
afternoon dewpoints this afternoon across the area more toward the
RAP which has performed best lately. That said have expanded the Red
Flag Warning for the whole CWA this afternoon given winds, low RH
and dry fuels.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
412 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING WITH CLEARING WHERE RAP
SHOWS STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH
SOUTHERNLY GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER
OVER OUR CWA WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WE WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD SUPPORT 70F TEMPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IF THE FRONT HOLDS OF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION OVER THE
CWA WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH BUILDING
IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
MOIST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BL WILL RESULT IN STRATUS SPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. SREF/NAM ARE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR FOG...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING STILL SEEMS TO SUPPORT MAINLY A
STRATUS EVENT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AND I TRENDED
LOWS UP PARTICULARLY IN OUR EAST WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD
ON AS DRIER AIR IN THE BL BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH WEAK POCKETS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO BOTH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS IN SOUTHERLY BL FLOW...AND A VERY WARM AIR MASS
ADVECTING NORTH (HIGHS IN 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80F).
A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING GREATLY ON POSITION. NAM INDICATES
A WESTWARD MOVEMENT IN DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING
IN THE WEST AND STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOLUTION ALSO
LEADS TO MUCH HIGHER TDS IN OUR EAST...AND AS A RESULT HIGHER CAPE
AND WEAKER CINH. PARCELS WOULD TEND TO BE ELEVATED AND IF THE DRY
LINE DOES NOT BACK WESTWARD THE AIR MASS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN OUR CWA...WHICH IS THE
SUPPORTED SOLUTION OF GFS/ECMWF. EVEN IF NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES THE
DRY NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT I COULD SEE
ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. WITH THE NAM SOLUTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BASED ON ADJUSTED ML CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
RANGE IN OUR EAST AND GOOD SPEED SHEAR (0-6KM SHEER: 35-40
KT).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. 00Z GFS A LITTLE FASTER BUT MORE CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS
TO HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS WHICH I LIKE. STILL LOOKING FOR EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
EARLY TO MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY NOW
BEING ADVERTISED AS WELL SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO
LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IS THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY WE COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET (<20 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS
>25 MPH) GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREELEY COUNTY TO
GRAHAM COUNTY IN THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S (WEST TO EAST)LOOKS GOOD PER
850MB TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THUS A DRY FORECAST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT BOTH FROM THE WEST
AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTH AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...INCREASING BY
MIDDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 30KT A BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REDEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS
VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER RH DOESNT APPEAR TO DROP TO 15 PERCENT...AND
EVEN THEN IT IS UNLIKELY WE WOULD REACH 3HR OF WIND/RH CRITERIA.
LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SUNDAY IN OUR WEST...HOWEVER ANY GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE TDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING WITH CLEARING WHERE RAP
SHOWS STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH
SOUTHERNLY GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER
OVER OUR CWA WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WE WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD SUPPORT 70F TEMPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IF THE FRONT HOLDS OF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION OVER THE
CWA WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH BUILDING
IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
MOIST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BL WILL RESULT IN STRATUS SPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. SREF/NAM ARE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR FOG...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING STILL SEEMS TO SUPPORT MAINLY A
STRATUS EVENT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AND I TRENDED
LOWS UP PARTICULARLY IN OUR EAST WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD
ON AS DRIER AIR IN THE BL BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH WEAK POCKETS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO BOTH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS IN SOUTHERLY BL FLOW...AND A VERY WARM AIR MASS
ADVECTING NORTH (HIGHS IN 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80F).
A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING GREATLY ON POSITION. NAM INDICATES
A WESTWARD MOVEMENT IN DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING
IN THE WEST AND STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOLUTION ALSO
LEADS TO MUCH HIGHER TDS IN OUR EAST...AND AS A RESULT HIGHER CAPE
AND WEAKER CINH. PARCELS WOULD TEND TO BE ELEVATED AND IF THE DRY
LINE DOES NOT BACK WESTWARD THE AIR MASS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN OUR CWA...WHICH IS THE
SUPPORTED SOLUTION OF GFS/ECMWF. EVEN IF NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES THE
DRY NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT I COULD SEE
ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. WITH THE NAM SOLUTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BASED ON ADJUSTED ML CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
RANGE IN OUR EAST AND GOOD SPEED SHEAR (0-6KM SHEER: 35-40
KT).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. 00Z GFS A LITTLE FASTER BUT MORE CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS
TO HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS WHICH I LIKE. STILL LOOKING FOR EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
EARLY TO MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY NOW
BEING ADVERTISED AS WELL SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO
LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IS THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY WE COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET (<20 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS
>25 MPH) GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREELEY COUNTY TO
GRAHAM COUNTY IN THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S (WEST TO EAST)LOOKS GOOD PER
850MB TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THUS A DRY FORECAST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT BOTH FROM THE WEST
AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU MAR 3 2016
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY A MIX OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS SSW 19AROUND 10KTS THRU 12Z-13Z THEN SHIFTING
WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS. BY 16Z-17Z NNW 15-25KTS THRU 02Z-03Z
SATURDAY THEN NNE AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER RH DOESNT APPEAR TO DROP TO 15 PERCENT...AND
EVEN THEN IT IS UNLIKELY WE WOULD REACH 3HR OF WIND/RH CRITERIA.
LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SUNDAY IN OUR WEST...HOWEVER ANY GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE TDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
A shortwave trough will move from Montana early this morning then
southeast across the Northern and Central Plains today. The upper
trough deepens as it moves over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Surface high pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes into
northeast Kansas will move off to the east as low pressure deepens
in the Western High Plains then moves east through the day along
with an associated cool frontal boundary. Pressure gradient will
tighten through the morning into the afternoon hours along with
mixing down stronger winds aloft will yield winds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. High clouds will also increase through the
day across central and eastern Kansas. RAP soundings show mixing
from 800mb-850 mb this afternoon across the area with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s expected. The frontal boundary is expected to
move southeast into the forecast area shifting the winds to the west
and northwest behind it. The front is forecast to extend from
southwest Iowa to near Council Grove then southwest to low pressure
over the Texas Panhandle early this evening. The front will move
through the remainder of northeast and east central Kansas through
the evening hours with high pressure building into the area
overnight. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
fall into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area with lows
in the upper 30s in east central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Dry and mild conditions are expected for Saturday as a weak mid-
level ridge will slide over the central U.S. with surface high
pressure over the region. Expect high temperatures to reach into the
low/mid 60s with model soundings showing very dry conditions in the
low/mid levels of the atmosphere. While minimum relative humidity
values in the afternoon will likely be in the low to upper 20
percent range (causing a heightened concern for fire weather), winds
are expected to be rather light throughout the day as they shift
from north to southeast.
The weather pattern will become more active beginning Saturday night
as the first of several embedded waves skims across the area. This
first embedded wave could bring some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday with another weak
embedded wave supporting the development of additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Sunday into
Monday models show a mid-level trough over the western U.S. quickly
advancing toward the central U.S., which will help to push an area
of surface low pressure into the High Plains region and significantly
increase the pressure gradient over the forecast area. As a result,
expect very breezy southerly winds on Sunday and Monday, which will
support good warm-air advection and high temperatures soaring into
the upper 60s to middle 70s by Monday. As the mid-level trough lifts
north of the area Monday night into Tuesday, it will help to push a
strong dryline toward central Kansas with a cold front moving
eastward across the forecast area Monday night. With these features
in place, models show a decent amount of instability setting up
across central Kansas (CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg) with 0-6km
bulk shear values of 25-35 kts. As a result, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible primarily across north central and central
Kansas late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. However, the main
limiting factor will be whether or not there is enough available
moisture in central Kansas to support thunderstorm development, as
the better moisture may be focused a bit further east.
As the mid-level trough advances toward the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday with the surface cold front pushing well east of the area,
expect predominantly dry conditions with the exception of far east
central Kansas that may continue to be clipped by some scattered
showers Tuesday through Wednesday as the cold front looks to stall
out along the Mississippi River. Mild conditions should persist
through the week with highs prevailing in the upper 50s to upper 60s
through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will advance into
the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday, supporting dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
VFR conditions are expected to persist. The latest RAP forecast
soundings have backed off on the boundary layer saturation and now
show surface moisture to be more shallow. With this in mind and
high clouds likely to continue streaming in from the west, think
chances for ground fog are to small to mention in the forecast at
this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
South winds increasing by afternoon into the 15 to 20 mph range with
gusts to around 30 mph expected. Afternoon relative humidity is
expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range and could even go a
bit lower especially if temperatures are higher than forecast and
drier air mixes down to the surface. Have gone a little lower with
afternoon dewpoints this afternoon across the area more toward the
RAP which has performed best lately. That said have expanded the Red
Flag Warning for the whole CWA this afternoon given winds, low RH
and dry fuels.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1119 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...BUT
WITH A FEW BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY PBL.
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
FROPA ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA LATE
IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ADVECT WARM/DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. RELATIVELY DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO
THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR EMPORIA TO Manhattan TO MARYSVILLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
SAT-SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT SPEEDS MAY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
RESULTING IN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE COLUMN IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE
SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S. THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
EXIST. UNCERTAINTY GROWS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER
ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A FEW
MORE SUBTLE WAVES LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
VFR conditions are expected to persist. The latest RAP forecast
soundings have backed off on the boundary layer saturation and now
show surface moisture to be more shallow. With this in mind and
high clouds likely to continue streaming in from the west, think
chances for ground fog are to small to mention in the forecast at
this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A red flag warning will be issued for locations generally along
and west of a line from near Emporia to Marysville on Friday
afternoon. Gusty southwest winds with gusts to 30 mph will
combine with minimum afternoon relative humidities in the 20-25
percent range resulting in critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McGuire
LONG TERM...McGuire
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...McGuire
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1043 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWERS WE HAVE BEEN PLAGUED WITH HAVE
TAPERED OFF IN MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTION IS TOWARD THE VA BORDER
WHERE EVEN A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WHILE WE
HAVE SOME STRATUS AROUND LATE THIS EVENING...WE HAVE NOT SEEN
SHARP DROPS IN VIS DUE TO FOG. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE PATCHY
DENSE IN THE GRIDS AND NOTHING MORE UNLESS FURTHER DEGRADATION OF
VIS OCCURS. OTHERWISE TEMPS MAYBE TRICKY WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
ARE STARTING BECOME MORE BKN OR EVEN CLR...RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
OVERALL CAA SHOULD HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
WSR-88D CONTINUES TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
HEARD ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. THE MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS ARE NOW TRACKING SE INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF
EASTERN TN. OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THAT IS
WINDING DOWN AND WE ARE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE. THE
QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG OR SUPPRESSED STRATUS
DO WE SEE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ASOS SITES THAT HAD DENSE FOG HAVE
SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST THERE WILL BE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILD EAST. RIGHT NOW WILL GO PATCHY DENSE AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WILL ALSO KEEP IT
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A BLANKET SPS. IMPROVEMENTS
STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND WE MIX
OUT THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS PUSHING A
FAIRLY LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
EARLIER...THIS LOW HELPED TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RELEASING THE AREA FROM CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S. CURRENTLY...READINGS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTH AND THE LOWER 50S SOUTH ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...HAVE ALSO CLIMBED WITH THE UPPER 30S AND
40S MOST COMMON AS THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A COMPACT WAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHARP LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY AN EQUALLY DISTINCT RIDGE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUILDING INTO MONDAY AS IT STARTS TO BE PUMPED UP DUE TO
ITS POSITION DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. LOOK
FOR THE RIDGE TO KEEP ANY MID LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING THE WX QUIET. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
MAINLY JUST NEAR TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WITH STRONG LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12
SOLUTIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SFC
WAVE PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR DOES FOLLOW THIS
LOW BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY SNOW MIXING IN BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PCPN DEPARTS. OF A LARGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AROUND AND ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAVE HIT THE FOG RATHER HARD IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
AREAS HAVING SOME DENSE FOG. RIDGES MAY SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...AS
WELL...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON...FOR MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAWN MONDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR
POP...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET VALUES INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE NEARLY ZEROING THEM OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND
DRY...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUBBORNLY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AT FIRST AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY
HAPPEN IS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY STALLS...AND INSTABILITY BECOMES TAPPED OUT...GENERAL
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DOMINATE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEKS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE SPRING ALL WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH NIGHTLY MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERY NIGHT
EXCEPT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE IS
LEADING RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST TAF SITES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...AS THEY MAY
SEE SOME CLEARING AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
NEXT ISSUE THAT REMAINS A CONCERN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TONIGHT. A FEW SITES SUCH AS JKL/SYM HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SIGNS OF THIS WITH LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES. THEREFORE DID
TEMPO THOSE SITES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MORE FLUCTUATION
EARLY ON. OTHERWISE HELD BACK TO LOW MVFR ON OTHER TAF SITES GIVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. WHILE INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL TRAP SURFACE MOISTURE...WE LOOK TO MIX OUT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BIGGER IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
751 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
WSR-88D CONTINUES TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
HEARD ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. THE MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS ARE NOW TRACKING SE INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF
EASTERN TN. OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THAT IS
WINDING DOWN AND WE ARE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE. THE
QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG OR SUPPRESSED STRATUS
DO WE SEE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ASOS SITES THAT HAD DENSE FOG HAVE
SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST THERE WILL BE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILD EAST. RIGHT NOW WILL GO PATCHY DENSE AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WILL ALSO KEEP IT
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A BLANKET SPS. IMPROVEMENTS
STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND WE MIX
OUT THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS PUSHING A
FAIRLY LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
EARLIER...THIS LOW HELPED TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RELEASING THE AREA FROM CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S. CURRENTLY...READINGS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTH AND THE LOWER 50S SOUTH ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...HAVE ALSO CLIMBED WITH THE UPPER 30S AND
40S MOST COMMON AS THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A COMPACT WAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHARP LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY AN EQUALLY DISTINCT RIDGE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUILDING INTO MONDAY AS IT STARTS TO BE PUMPED UP DUE TO
ITS POSITION DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. LOOK
FOR THE RIDGE TO KEEP ANY MID LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING THE WX QUIET. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
MAINLY JUST NEAR TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WITH STRONG LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12
SOLUTIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SFC
WAVE PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR DOES FOLLOW THIS
LOW BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY SNOW MIXING IN BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PCPN DEPARTS. OF A LARGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AROUND AND ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAVE HIT THE FOG RATHER HARD IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
AREAS HAVING SOME DENSE FOG. RIDGES MAY SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...AS
WELL...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON...FOR MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAWN MONDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR
POP...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET VALUES INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE NEARLY ZEROING THEM OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND
DRY...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUBBORNLY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AT FIRST AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY
HAPPEN IS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY STALLS...AND INSTABILITY BECOMES TAPPED OUT...GENERAL
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DOMINATE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEKS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE SPRING ALL WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH NIGHTLY MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERY NIGHT
EXCEPT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE IS
LEADING RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST TAF SITES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...AS THEY MAY
SEE SOME CLEARING AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
NEXT ISSUE THAT REMAINS A CONCERN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TONIGHT. A FEW SITES SUCH AS JKL/SYM HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SIGNS OF THIS WITH LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES. THEREFORE DID
TEMPO THOSE SITES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MORE FLUCTUATION
EARLY ON. OTHERWISE HELD BACK TO LOW MVFR ON OTHER TAF SITES GIVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. WHILE INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL TRAP SURFACE MOISTURE...WE LOOK TO MIX OUT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BIGGER IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
635 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS PUSHING A
FAIRLY LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
EARLIER...THIS LOW HELPED TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RELEASING THE AREA FROM CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S. CURRENTLY...READINGS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTH AND THE LOWER 50S SOUTH ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...HAVE ALSO CLIMBED WITH THE UPPER 30S AND
40S MOST COMMON AS THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A COMPACT WAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHARP LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY AN EQUALLY DISTINCT RIDGE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUILDING INTO MONDAY AS IT STARTS TO BE PUMPED UP DUE TO
ITS POSITION DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. LOOK
FOR THE RIDGE TO KEEP ANY MID LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING THE WX QUIET. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
MAINLY JUST NEAR TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WITH STRONG LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12
SOLUTIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SFC
WAVE PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR DOES FOLLOW THIS
LOW BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY SNOW MIXING IN BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PCPN DEPARTS. OF A LARGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AROUND AND ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAVE HIT THE FOG RATHER HARD IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
AREAS HAVING SOME DENSE FOG. RIDGES MAY SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...AS
WELL...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON...FOR MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAWN MONDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR
POP...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET VALUES INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE NEARLY ZEROING THEM OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND
DRY...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUBBORNLY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AT FIRST AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY
HAPPEN IS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY STALLS...AND INSTABILITY BECOMES TAPPED OUT...GENERAL
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DOMINATE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEKS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE SPRING ALL WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH NIGHTLY MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERY NIGHT
EXCEPT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE IS
LEADING RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST TAF SITES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...AS THEY MAY
SEE SOME CLEARING AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
NEXT ISSUE THAT REMAINS A CONCERN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TONIGHT. A FEW SITES SUCH AS JKL/SYM HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SIGNS OF THIS WITH LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES. THEREFORE DID
TEMPO THOSE SITES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MORE FLUCTUATION
EARLY ON. OTHERWISE HELD BACK TO LOW MVFR ON OTHER TAF SITES GIVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. WHILE INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL TRAP SURFACE MOISTURE...WE LOOK TO MIX OUT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BIGGER IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
104 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS STILL MOVING SE
THROUGH OUR AREA AS OF 11AM...REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THIS BAND SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
SOME PASSING FLURRIES/DRIZZLE ARE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CREPT UP A DEGREE OR SO. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AND
FOG CONTINUING THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE MID-WEST.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE DENSE FOG
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. WEAK ADVECTION AND CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR PRETTY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SKIRT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
DAWN...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AS
SOME TEMPORARY SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
SHALLOWS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP...AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT
AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL DECK IS POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY
ON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 0Z SUNDAY...AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIMITED QPF. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AMPLIFY IN
MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
MONDAY...AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
OR THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTEAD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SRLY FLOW...WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE MAKINGS
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CREATING ANOTHER
EPICENTER FOR HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY...TOWARD THE CWA.
THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS...GENERAL MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT SEEMS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHEERING OUT
WITH A DECENT LOSS OF FORCING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST POPS AND OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM QPF WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF LOCATIONS TO OUR WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF. SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR OVERNIGHT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL STAY IN PLACE. BR OR FG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED NEAR
THE SURFACE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JVM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1239 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1045 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Ongoing forecast pretty much on track. Ceilings are starting to rise
across the north as depth of the moisture thins. That area still may
see breaks in clouds by the end of the afternoon. Only subtle
adjustment was for temperatures down south, to drop them a degree or
two. Also wanted to remove the morning drizzle wording, as those
higher clouds take that moisture away from the surface.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
The main forecast concern in the short term is drizzle/rain chances
this morning then cloud trends/temperatures later today. A quick
moving clipper will brush the area Saturday morning, bringing a
chance of light rain.
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was quickly moving across
central Illinois and Indiana. Ahead of this feature, regional radar
mosaic showed light returns blossoming across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. A nearby RAP/HRRR sounding showed some loss of
ice saturation aloft with plenty of low level moisture. As a result,
several sites have been reporting drizzle or light rain.
Temperatures mostly were in the mid/upper 30s, having remained
mostly steady since last evening.
Plan on this upper wave and weak surface front to pass through the
forecast area this morning. Light precipitation, either drizzle or
light rain, will accompany it. HRRR, RAP and WRF hi-res models are
in good agreement showing this ending across our forecast area by
mid/late morning. A slightly drier air mass will try to erode some
of the clouds by afternoon, but the forecast thinking is that most
areas will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, especially along/east of
I-65. Some lucky folks west of I-65 may see some late day sun
breaking through. Plan on highs to range from the low/mid 40s across
the northern Bluegrass to the mid/upper 40s across south-central KY.
Quick on its heels is another northwest flow system that will arrive
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of its forcing and
saturation will stay north of the area. Areas most likely to see
some light rain showers, mainly Saturday morning, would be across
southeast Indiana into northern KY and into the Bluegrass region.
Despite the morning precipitation, temperatures should recover
nicely in the wake of that system, rising into the 50s region-wide
by afternoon. A few 60 degree readings are possible across south-
central KY, including Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
...Periods of Heavy Rain Likely Next Week...
The primary forecast concern in the long term is the unsettled
weather pattern that is likely to develop across the area mid to
late next week.
The synoptic pattern on Sunday is expected to feature upper level
ridging over the central Plains with a digging trough over the
western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is likely to be
sprawled out across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. Sunday is
shaping up to be a nice, seasonable day with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, warmest across south-central Kentucky. If there happens to
be enough of a late afternoon return flow, then highs may end up a
few degrees warmer, especially west of I-65.
From Monday into Tuesday, the aforementioned western trough advances
eastward, spinning up several surface lows over the central Plains.
Downstream ridging and a surface high anchored off the NC coast will
keep our area dry as the main axis of 850 mb moisture transport
stays well to the west. Plan on warmer temperatures as well with
daily highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll
have to contend with steady south breezes during the day, but winds
and gusts look to stay below advisory levels.
Wednesday through Friday...
No significant changes in the 04.00z model guidance as overall the
various data sets are in rather good agreement showing signs of a
heavy rain event for our area. By mid-week, a 500 mb closed low
spins across Texas and the Gulf Coast. This will pump anomalously
high moisture into the area. PWATS still peak above 1.5 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, which is significantly above normal
for early/mid March. Several waves to look ride along a stalled
surface front that may stretch along the southern MS River to lower
OH River Valleys. Moisture transport impinges on the area the
greatest late Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Overall, QPF and WPC guidance continues to trend higher. From late
Tuesday through Friday, 2-4 inches may fall across portions of
southern/southwest Indiana into western and west-central KY. The
remaining areas east of I-65 may still see 1-2+ as well. These
amounts are of course tentative and will adjust as the event nears.
These amounts may also not capture some local enhancements,
especially if convection ends up more widespread. Overall, a heavy
rain event resulting in flooding is possible mid/late next week.
How fast the upper level closed low moves across the deep south late
next week and into next weekend is a bit uncertain this far out, but
04.00z guidance points toward this feature lifting through the area
next weekend. This may bring additional rainfall, some of it heavy,
not necessarily captured in the potential amounts discussed above.
Overall, a very unsettled period beginning the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Low clouds continue at all TAF sites early this afternoon, with
generally lower MVFR cigs at this time. Short range models suggest
lower clouds will begin to scour out later this afternoon at SDF and
eventually LEX and BWG this evening as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest. Will monitor progress of these low
clouds.
For tonight, approaching system will spread mid and high level
clouds across central KY. Surface winds will be light, and a small
temp-dewpoint spread toward dawn could lead to MVFR vsbys in fog/
haze. This system should result in scattered showers at SDF and LEX
Saturday morning, first at SDF. BWG should be far enough removed for
just clouds but no or just isolated showers. Model low-level
moisture progs also suggest lower clouds/cigs returning Saturday
morning into the afternoon. Will keep these in MVFR category for now
as vsbys improve to P6SM.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1104 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS STILL MOVING SE
THROUGH OUR AREA AS OF 11AM...REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THIS BAND SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
SOME PASSING FLURRIES/DRIZZLE ARE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CREPT UP A DEGREE OR SO. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AND
FOG CONTINUING THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE MID-WEST.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE DENSE FOG
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. WEAK ADVECTION AND CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR PRETTY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SKIRT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
DAWN...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AS
SOME TEMPORARY SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
SHALLOWS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP...AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT
AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL DECK IS POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY
ON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 0Z SUNDAY...AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIMITED QPF. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AMPLIFY IN
MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
MONDAY...AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
OR THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTEAD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SRLY FLOW...WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE MAKINGS
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CREATING ANOTHER
EPICENTER FOR HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY...TOWARD THE CWA.
THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS...GENERAL MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT SEEMS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHEERING OUT
WITH A DECENT LOSS OF FORCING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST POPS AND OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM QPF WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF LOCATIONS TO OUR WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME PASSING FLURRIES WILL KEEP LIFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. AT JKL...SYM...AND
SJS...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS AT TIMES. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RAISE UP TO VFR AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1048 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1045 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Ongoing forecast pretty much on track. Ceilings are starting to rise
across the north as depth of the moisture thins. That area still may
see breaks in clouds by the end of the afternoon. Only subtle
adjustment was for temperatures down south, to drop them a degree or
two. Also wanted to remove the morning drizzle wording, as those
higher clouds take that moisture away from the surface.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
The main forecast concern in the short term is drizzle/rain chances
this morning then cloud trends/temperatures later today. A quick
moving clipper will brush the area Saturday morning, bringing a
chance of light rain.
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was quickly moving across
central Illinois and Indiana. Ahead of this feature, regional radar
mosaic showed light returns blossoming across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. A nearby RAP/HRRR sounding showed some loss of
ice saturation aloft with plenty of low level moisture. As a result,
several sites have been reporting drizzle or light rain.
Temperatures mostly were in the mid/upper 30s, having remained
mostly steady since last evening.
Plan on this upper wave and weak surface front to pass through the
forecast area this morning. Light precipitation, either drizzle or
light rain, will accompany it. HRRR, RAP and WRF hi-res models are
in good agreement showing this ending across our forecast area by
mid/late morning. A slightly drier air mass will try to erode some
of the clouds by afternoon, but the forecast thinking is that most
areas will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, especially along/east of
I-65. Some lucky folks west of I-65 may see some late day sun
breaking through. Plan on highs to range from the low/mid 40s across
the northern Bluegrass to the mid/upper 40s across south-central KY.
Quick on its heels is another northwest flow system that will arrive
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of its forcing and
saturation will stay north of the area. Areas most likely to see
some light rain showers, mainly Saturday morning, would be across
southeast Indiana into northern KY and into the Bluegrass region.
Despite the morning precipitation, temperatures should recover
nicely in the wake of that system, rising into the 50s region-wide
by afternoon. A few 60 degree readings are possible across south-
central KY, including Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
...Periods of Heavy Rain Likely Next Week...
The primary forecast concern in the long term is the unsettled
weather pattern that is likely to develop across the area mid to
late next week.
The synoptic pattern on Sunday is expected to feature upper level
ridging over the central Plains with a digging trough over the
western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is likely to be
sprawled out across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. Sunday is
shaping up to be a nice, seasonable day with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, warmest across south-central Kentucky. If there happens to
be enough of a late afternoon return flow, then highs may end up a
few degrees warmer, especially west of I-65.
From Monday into Tuesday, the aforementioned western trough advances
eastward, spinning up several surface lows over the central Plains.
Downstream ridging and a surface high anchored off the NC coast will
keep our area dry as the main axis of 850 mb moisture transport
stays well to the west. Plan on warmer temperatures as well with
daily highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll
have to contend with steady south breezes during the day, but winds
and gusts look to stay below advisory levels.
Wednesday through Friday...
No significant changes in the 04.00z model guidance as overall the
various data sets are in rather good agreement showing signs of a
heavy rain event for our area. By mid-week, a 500 mb closed low
spins across Texas and the Gulf Coast. This will pump anomalously
high moisture into the area. PWATS still peak above 1.5 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, which is significantly above normal
for early/mid March. Several waves to look ride along a stalled
surface front that may stretch along the southern MS River to lower
OH River Valleys. Moisture transport impinges on the area the
greatest late Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Overall, QPF and WPC guidance continues to trend higher. From late
Tuesday through Friday, 2-4 inches may fall across portions of
southern/southwest Indiana into western and west-central KY. The
remaining areas east of I-65 may still see 1-2+ as well. These
amounts are of course tentative and will adjust as the event nears.
These amounts may also not capture some local enhancements,
especially if convection ends up more widespread. Overall, a heavy
rain event resulting in flooding is possible mid/late next week.
How fast the upper level closed low moves across the deep south late
next week and into next weekend is a bit uncertain this far out, but
04.00z guidance points toward this feature lifting through the area
next weekend. This may bring additional rainfall, some of it heavy,
not necessarily captured in the potential amounts discussed above.
Overall, a very unsettled period beginning the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 610 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the morning hours today
as low clouds remain entrenched over the region. Expect patchy
drizzle and flight conditions solidly in the low IFR range and even
LIFR at times before 14Z. Flight conditions will start to improve
by mid morning and through the afternoon hours with all TAF sites
back to MVFR by early afternoon and VFR by this evening.
Winds will remain on the light side and predominantly NW today.
Another weather system will bring light precipitation chances to SDF
near the end of this TAF period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
SOME PASSING FLURRIES/DRIZZLE ARE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CREPT UP A DEGREE OR SO. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AND
FOG CONTINUING THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE MID-WEST.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE DENSE FOG
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. WEAK ADVECTION AND CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR PRETTY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SKIRT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
DAWN...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AS
SOME TEMPORARY SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
SHALLOWS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP...AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT
AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL DECK IS POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY
ON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 0Z SUNDAY...AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIMITED QPF. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AMPLIFY IN
MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
MONDAY...AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
OR THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTEAD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SRLY FLOW...WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE MAKINGS
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CREATING ANOTHER
EPICENTER FOR HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY...TOWARD THE CWA.
THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS...GENERAL MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT SEEMS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHEERING OUT
WITH A DECENT LOSS OF FORCING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST POPS AND OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM QPF WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF LOCATIONS TO OUR WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME PASSING FLURRIES WILL KEEP LIFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. AT JKL...SYM...AND
SJS...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS AT TIMES. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RAISE UP TO VFR AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
549 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
For aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
High pressure will drift southeast into the OH Valley today.
Biggest question will be if and when low clouds will finally clear
out....esp along/east of the MS River. Western edge of clouds
continues to be nearly stationary, so will plat it pessimistic
for now and keep clouds in most of the day. This will help hold
sfc temps in the 40s.
A clipper type low will drop southeast from Canada into the Great
Lakes and upper OH Valley on Saturday, but precip associated with
that low is still expected to remain n/e of our region. Good news
is that high pressure will quickly take over Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, and should bring a return to sunshine and milder
temperatures for the weekend. Breezy conditions behind the sfc
low on Saturday will be replaced by more tranquil conditions
Saturday night into Sunday as the sfc high moves across the Ohio
Valley region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Quiet and unseasonably warm conditions are expected Monday. By
Monday night, the beginning of a very prolonged wet pattern will
begin. Models are in good agreement showing a surface low centered
over south central Nebraska/northwest Kansas at 00z Tuesday, moving
just north of the Great Lakes by 00z Wednesday. As the associated
cold front moves toward the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River
valleys, shower chances will gradually increase from west to east
Monday night through Tuesday night. Showers will spread across
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far west Kentucky
Monday night, and across the rest of the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. Models are also in good agreement showing more significant
rainfall beginning in southeast Missouri Tuesday afternoon,
spreading east Tuesday night. The cold front hangs up over our
region through Thursday as another area of low pressure develops
along the front in Texas, which will keep widespread showers across
the region.
Models vary somewhat in the location of the axis of heaviest
rainfall, but generally it looks like the highest rainfall amounts
will be from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far west
Kentucky. Right now GFS and ECMWF show amounts in the 4 to 6 inch
range for the Monday night through Thursday time frame. Models show
best instability over southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, but
overall instability is not too impressive anywhere. Went ahead and
included some chances of thunderstorm, but main concern will be
rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Low clouds will be very stubborn to exit the region today. Cigs
will rise to 1k-3k FT this morning, and may persist most of the
daylight hours. Skies may clear this evening, but VFR cigs may
return with the approach of another frontal system around 06z Sat.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
549 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
For aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
High pressure will drift southeast into the OH Valley today.
Biggest question will be if and when low clouds will finally clear
out....esp along/east of the MS River. Western edge of clouds
continues to be nearly stationary, so will plat it pessimistic
for now and keep clouds in most of the day. This will help hold
sfc temps in the 40s.
A clipper type low will drop southeast from Canada into the Great
Lakes and upper OH Valley on Saturday, but precip associated with
that low is still expected to remain n/e of our region. Good news
is that high pressure will quickly take over Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, and should bring a return to sunshine and milder
temperatures for the weekend. Breezy conditions behind the sfc
low on Saturday will be replaced by more tranquil conditions
Saturday night into Sunday as the sfc high moves across the Ohio
Valley region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Quiet and unseasonably warm conditions are expected Monday. By
Monday night, the beginning of a very prolonged wet pattern will
begin. Models are in good agreement showing a surface low centered
over south central Nebraska/northwest Kansas at 00z Tuesday, moving
just north of the Great Lakes by 00z Wednesday. As the associated
cold front moves toward the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River
valleys, shower chances will gradually increase from west to east
Monday night through Tuesday night. Showers will spread across
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far west Kentucky
Monday night, and across the rest of the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. Models are also in good agreement showing more significant
rainfall beginning in southeast Missouri Tuesday afternoon,
spreading east Tuesday night. The cold front hangs up over our
region through Thursday as another area of low pressure develops
along the front in Texas, which will keep widespread showers across
the region.
Models vary somewhat in the location of the axis of heaviest
rainfall, but generally it looks like the highest rainfall amounts
will be from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far west
Kentucky. Right now GFS and ECMWF show amounts in the 4 to 6 inch
range for the Monday night through Thursday time frame. Models show
best instability over southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, but
overall instability is not too impressive anywhere. Went ahead and
included some chances of thunderstorm, but main concern will be
rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Low clouds will be very stubborn to exit the region today. Cigs
will rise to 1k-3k FT this morning, and may persist most of the
daylight hours. Skies may clear this evening, but VFR cigs may
return with the approach of another frontal system around 06z Sat.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
616 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
The main forecast concern in the short term is drizzle/rain chances
this morning then cloud trends/temperatures later today. A quick
moving clipper will brush the area Saturday morning, bringing a
chance of light rain.
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was quickly moving across
central Illinois and Indiana. Ahead of this feature, regional radar
mosaic showed light returns blossoming across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. A nearby RAP/HRRR sounding showed some loss of
ice saturation aloft with plenty of low level moisture. As a result,
several sites have been reporting drizzle or light rain.
Temperatures mostly were in the mid/upper 30s, having remained
mostly steady since last evening.
Plan on this upper wave and weak surface front to pass through the
forecast area this morning. Light precipitation, either drizzle or
light rain, will accompany it. HRRR, RAP and WRF hi-res models are
in good agreement showing this ending across our forecast area by
mid/late morning. A slightly drier air mass will try to erode some
of the clouds by afternoon, but the forecast thinking is that most
areas will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, especially along/east of
I-65. Some lucky folks west of I-65 may see some late day sun
breaking through. Plan on highs to range from the low/mid 40s across
the northern Bluegrass to the mid/upper 40s across south-central KY.
Quick on its heels is another northwest flow system that will arrive
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of its forcing and
saturation will stay north of the area. Areas most likely to see
some light rain showers, mainly Saturday morning, would be across
southeast Indiana into northern KY and into the Bluegrass region.
Despite the morning precipitation, temperatures should recover
nicely in the wake of that system, rising into the 50s region-wide
by afternoon. A few 60 degree readings are possible across south-
central KY, including Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
...Periods of Heavy Rain Likely Next Week...
The primary forecast concern in the long term is the unsettled
weather pattern that is likely to develop across the area mid to
late next week.
The synoptic pattern on Sunday is expected to feature upper level
ridging over the central Plains with a digging trough over the
western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is likely to be
sprawled out across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. Sunday is
shaping up to be a nice, seasonable day with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, warmest across south-central Kentucky. If there happens to
be enough of a late afternoon return flow, then highs may end up a
few degrees warmer, especially west of I-65.
From Monday into Tuesday, the aforementioned western trough advances
eastward, spinning up several surface lows over the central Plains.
Downstream ridging and a surface high anchored off the NC coast will
keep our area dry as the main axis of 850 mb moisture transport
stays well to the west. Plan on warmer temperatures as well with
daily highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll
have to contend with steady south breezes during the day, but winds
and gusts look to stay below advisory levels.
Wednesday through Friday...
No significant changes in the 04.00z model guidance as overall the
various data sets are in rather good agreement showing signs of a
heavy rain event for our area. By mid-week, a 500 mb closed low
spins across Texas and the Gulf Coast. This will pump anomalously
high moisture into the area. PWATS still peak above 1.5 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, which is significantly above normal
for early/mid March. Several waves to look ride along a stalled
surface front that may stretch along the southern MS River to lower
OH River Valleys. Moisture transport impinges on the area the
greatest late Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Overall, QPF and WPC guidance continues to trend higher. From late
Tuesday through Friday, 2-4 inches may fall across portions of
southern/southwest Indiana into western and west-central KY. The
remaining areas east of I-65 may still see 1-2+ as well. These
amounts are of course tentative and will adjust as the event nears.
These amounts may also not capture some local enhancements,
especially if convection ends up more widespread. Overall, a heavy
rain event resulting in flooding is possible mid/late next week.
How fast the upper level closed low moves across the deep south late
next week and into next weekend is a bit uncertain this far out, but
04.00z guidance points toward this feature lifting through the area
next weekend. This may bring additional rainfall, some of it heavy,
not necessarily captured in the potential amounts discussed above.
Overall, a very unsettled period beginning the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 610 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the morning hours today
as low clouds remain entrenched over the region. Expect patchy
drizzle and flight conditions solidly in the low IFR range and even
LIFR at times before 14Z. Flight conditions will start to improve
by mid morning and through the afternoon hours with all TAF sites
back to MVFR by early afternoon and VFR by this evening.
Winds will remain on the light side and predominantly NW today.
Another weather system will bring light precipitation chances to SDF
near the end of this TAF period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE MID-WEST.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE DENSE FOG
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. WEAK ADVECTION AND CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR PRETTY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SKIRT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
DAWN...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AS
SOME TEMPORARY SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
SHALLOWS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP...AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT
AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL DECK IS POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY
ON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 0Z SUNDAY...AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIMITED QPF. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AMPLIFY IN
MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
MONDAY...AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
OR THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTEAD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SRLY FLOW...WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE MAKINGS
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CREATING ANOTHER
EPICENTER FOR HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY...TOWARD THE CWA.
THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS...GENERAL MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT SEEMS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHEERING OUT
WITH A DECENT LOSS OF FORCING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST POPS AND OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM QPF WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF LOCATIONS TO OUR WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES/DRIZZLE WILL
ALSO BE ON THE DEMISE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NOT RAISE BACK UP
INTO MVFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT
RETURNING UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
The main forecast concern in the short term is drizzle/rain chances
this morning then cloud trends/temperatures later today. A quick
moving clipper will brush the area Saturday morning, bringing a
chance of light rain.
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was quickly moving across
central Illinois and Indiana. Ahead of this feature, regional radar
mosaic showed light returns blossoming across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. A nearby RAP/HRRR sounding showed some loss of
ice saturation aloft with plenty of low level moisture. As a
result, several sites have been reporting drizzle or light rain.
Temperatures mostly were in the mid/upper 30s, having remained
mostly steady since last evening.
Plan on this upper wave and weak surface front to pass through the
forecast area this morning. Light precipitation, either drizzle or
light rain, will accompany it. HRRR, RAP and WRF hi-res models are
in good agreement showing this ending across our forecast area by
mid/late morning. A slightly drier air mass will try to erode some
of the clouds by afternoon, but the forecast thinking is that most
areas will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, especially along/east of
I-65. Some lucky folks west of I-65 may see some late day sun
breaking through. Plan on highs to range from the low/mid 40s across
the northern Bluegrass to the mid/upper 40s across south-central KY.
Quick on its heels is another northwest flow system that will arrive
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of its forcing and
saturation will stay north of the area. Areas most likely to see
some light rain showers, mainly Saturday morning, would be across
southeast Indiana into northern KY and into the Bluegrass region.
Despite the morning precipitation, temperatures should recover
nicely in the wake of that system, rising into the 50s region-wide
by afternoon. A few 60 degree readings are possible across south-
central KY, including Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
...Periods of Heavy Rain Likely Next Week...
The primary forecast concern in the long term is the unsettled
weather pattern that is likely to develop across the area mid to
late next week.
The synoptic pattern on Sunday is expected to feature upper level
ridging over the central Plains with a digging trough over the
western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is likely to be
sprawled out across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. Sunday is
shaping up to be a nice, seasonable day with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, warmest across south-central Kentucky. If there happens to
be enough of a late afternoon return flow, then highs may end up a
few degrees warmer, especially west of I-65.
From Monday into Tuesday, the aforementioned western trough advances
eastward, spinning up several surface lows over the central Plains.
Downstream ridging and a surface high anchored off the NC coast will
keep our area dry as the main axis of 850 mb moisture transport
stays well to the west. Plan on warmer temperatures as well with
daily highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll
have to contend with steady south breezes during the day, but winds
and gusts look to stay below advisory levels.
Wednesday through Friday...
No significant changes in the 04.00z model guidance as overall the
various data sets are in rather good agreement showing signs of a
heavy rain event for our area. By mid-week, a 500 mb closed low
spins across Texas and the Gulf Coast. This will pump anomalously
high moisture into the area. PWATS still peak above 1.5 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, which is significantly above normal
for early/mid March. Several waves to look ride along a stalled
surface front that may stretch along the southern MS River to lower
OH River Valleys. Moisture transport impinges on the area the
greatest late Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Overall, QPF and WPC guidance continues to trend higher. From late
Tuesday through Friday, 2-4 inches may fall across portions of
southern/southwest Indiana into western and west-central KY. The
remaining areas east of I-65 may still see 1-2+ as well. These
amounts are of course tentative and will adjust as the event nears.
These amounts may also not capture some local enhancements,
especially if convection ends up more widespread. Overall, a heavy
rain event resulting in flooding is possible mid/late next week.
How fast the upper level closed low moves across the deep south late
next week and into next weekend is a bit uncertain this far out, but
04.00z guidance points toward this feature lifting through the area
next weekend. This may bring additional rainfall, some of it heavy,
not necessarily captured in the potential amounts discussed above.
Overall, a very unsettled period beginning the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the morning hours today
as low clouds remain entrenched over the region. Currently we have
a few breaks in the IFR ahead of an approaching shortwave and sfc
trough. However, once this feature arrives, expect patchy drizzle
and flight conditions solidly in the low IFR range and even LIFR at
times between 8-14Z. Flight conditions will start to improve by mid
morning and through the afternoon hours with all TAF sites back to
MVFR by early afternoon and VFR by this evening.
Winds will remain on the light side and predominantly NW after the
sfc trough passes during the pre-dawn hrs.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
257 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. BY
MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM IS GOING TO BE THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW THAT
IS CONTINUING OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THERE IS SOME
LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL MAINE AS
WELL...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS SEEING THE LIONS
SHARE OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM12 HAVE
STARTED TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE AND THE HRRR IS STARTING TO
FALL IN LINE ALSO. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SNOW COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BECAUSE
OF THIS...WE HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
EXPECT COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE ANTICIPATED.
LARGE SCALE HEMISPHERIC FLOW AT 500 MB AS POLAR VORTEX OVER NRN
CANADA BEGINS TO SEND PIECES OFF TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
BREAKS DOWN THE BLOCKING OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC...WHILE A SERIES OF
LOWS DEEPEN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD RIDGING OVER
THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND THE WRN AND GENERALLY DRIER CONDS /NO
MAJOR STORMS/ AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDS AS WELL.
FROM A SENSIBLE WX PERSPECTIVE...SUNDAY STARTS WITH A WEAK 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUN
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE POLAR VORTEX AND
CLIPS THE NE ZONES MONDAY AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SHSN OR RA IN
THE MTNS MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT THE MOVES IN FOR TUE-WED WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR S. EURO AND GFS DOW PASS A 500MB OVER OR
JUST TO OUR N LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
AT THIS POINT, WITH THE GFS PUSHING MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AROUND THU...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
EURO TIMING IS REVERSED WITH THE COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED DOWN THU
AND AND STALLING S OF THE CWA...AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT THU
NIGHT. EITHER WAY...QPF NOT IMPRESSIVE ATTM...AND WILL LIKELY FALL
AS RAIN. THE MODEL BLEND OF POPS GENERALLY KEEP THEM IN THE SLT
CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE IN THE WED-THU NIGHT PERIOD.
TEMPS START AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AROUND 30 IN THE N TO AROUND
40 IN THE S. MON WILL SEE TEMPS JUMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS
FROM 40 TO 50...AND THE WILL INCREASE SEVERAL DEGREES EACH ON TUE
AND WED WITH WED HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S IN THE N TO 60-65 IN THE S. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL SCALE BACK TEMPS ON THU AND
FRI...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10F ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AT KCON...KPWM...KPSM AND KMHT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE SNOW ENDS EXPECT ALL
LOCATIONS TO GO VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN-WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OVER THE WATERS. IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED EVENT WITH WINDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. ONCE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AS WINDS DECREASE.
LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS WINDS SW WINDS SURGE AHEAD
OF A FRONT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ013-
014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...POHL
SHORT TERM...POHL
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.AVIATION...
THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL TEETER ON FRAGILE LOW CLOUD TRENDS AND
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING AND EXTENT REMAINS ON THE LOW
SIDE BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. OPEN SKY AND LIGHT WIND WILL PROMOTE MVFR TO
MARGINALLY IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT DOWN TO ABOUT FNT AND POSSIBLY PTK
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THAN NORMAL DUE TO A FRESH WET SNOW COVER WHILE
THE DTW AREA HOLDS ON TO MVFR CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
OF CLEARING TO STALL AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL BRING THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST BACK NORTHWARD OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN TOWARD SUNRISE LASTING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW EXITING THE AREA WILL LEAVE MVFR CEILING BEHIND
DURING THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING TREND OBSERVED
MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HAS JUST A LOW
CHANCE OF REACHING DTW BEFORE THE TREND REVERSES NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS OVER INDIANA AND OHIO WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 300 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
DISCUSSION...
ACCUMULATING SNOW COMING TO AN END BY 00Z...AS 700 MB COLD POOL OF
-14 TO -15 C EXITS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN...WITH WARMING MID LEVELS AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB BUILDS INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BACKDROP FOR COLD (AROUND
10 DEGREES) MINS IF CLOUDS BREAK. THE RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TO SKEW
THE FORECAST ON CLOUDIER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MINS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 20S/AROUND 20 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...CLEARING TREND WORKING DOWN FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING FAIRLY AGRESSIVE...AND DO WANT TO GIVE
WEIGHT TO THE 12Z EURO WHICH ALLOWS FOR CLEARING IN NORTH HALF OF
CWA...ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. IF CLEARING DOES EXTEND
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...COULD HAVE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING TOMORROW...WARM ADVECTION
REALLY KICKS...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS LATE
IN THE DAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE ABOVE 0
C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH...CONCERNS WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS WITH THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE.
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...DESPITE SURFACE DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 30S. 12Z
EURO/NAM BOTH INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS RISING JUST ABOVE 10
C ON MONDAY...SUGGESTIVE OF MAXES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE OUR PAST WARMUP`S IN FEBRUARY...WARM ADVECTION MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT THICKER/PERSISTENT...AND WILL TEMPER
THE WARMUP A BIT AND KEEP MAXES IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD YIELD
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...MOISTURE PLUME OF PWAT 1+ INCHES WILL CREEP
EASTWARD AHEAD OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ENSURE MAINLY DRY
AND VERY MILD WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
STALLING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MIDWEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD
FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS DRIER AIR WILL FEED IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. WINDS THEN WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH.
WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
LAKE HURON...PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE...WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. A MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA...BUT FOR EARLY MAR HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND NORMAL FROM NW CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE
RESULTING NW FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NAMERICA...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS OVER MT/SASKATCHEWAN. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING SE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LES
DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF NW UPPER MI ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BRUSHING
AREAS FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. FARTHER S...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE SOME SPOTS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO
ZERO...OTHERS ARE IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
DISSIPATING LOW PRES TROF AND MODERATING AIR MASS WILL BRING AN END
TO ANY LIGHT LES/FLURRIES AFFECTING THE FAR NE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN
MT/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF WAVE AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM SE
SASKATCHEWAN TO E CNTRL WI BY 12Z. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF FEATURE AND QPF...HAVE UTILIZED A SIMPLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR FCST. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WRN FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES SE ACROSS WI...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS. SO...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE ON TRACK
SHOWING HEAVIEST QPF IN A NW-SE STRIPE ACROSS WI. UTILIZING A 15/16
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WITH QPF ROUGHLY AROUND 0.05 N AND 0.2
ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER YIELDS SNOW AMOUNTS OF ROUGHLY AROUND 1 INCH
N AND 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. BEST CHC OF REACHING ADVY
CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES IN 12HRS IS IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. HELD
OFF ON ADVY SINCE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER QPF.
DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR A HEADLINE. FARTHER
E...850MB TEMPS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MI. ALTHOUGH DISPLACED FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING...SHALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE FAR N END OF THE LAKE MAY HELP BOOST SNOW
TOTALS A BIT INTO THE SE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS DRYING AND SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH NO
REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
30S FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT NOTHING LIKE
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT....RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER
FROM THEIR EVENING LOWS.
THE BEGINNING OF A CONSIDERABLE STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UP ON SUNDAY.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
THERE COULD BE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT ON TUESDAY
WITH ARRIVAL OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED
AND AGGRESSIVE PUSHING SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BRIEFLY DURING THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD...BUT ECMWF AND GEM OR NOT
NEARLY AS COLD. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW FLAKES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT THE MILDER SOLUTIONS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY.
MILD...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN PERSIST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO LATE THIS AFTN.
NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL TRACK SE INTO NRN MN THIS AFTN AND THEN
ACROSS WI TONIGHT...SPREADING -SN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AT
KIWD/KSAW AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX. FURTHER REDUCTION TO IFR
IS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...THOUGH BEING FARTHER REMOVED
FROM THE MAIN PCPN AREA...KCMX MAY REMAIN PREVAILING MFVR WITH ONLY
IFR AT TIMES. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL FALL
TO LIFR AT KSAW. ONCE THE SYSTEM SLIDES OUT ON SAT...EXPECT IFR TO
LOW MVFR DECK TO STAY IN PLACE INTO THE AFTN ALONG WITH LINGERING
LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST LOCALLY TO AROUND 25KT EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER SE LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS SE
THRU WI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 20KT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN/EVENING...KEEPING WINDS
UNDER 20KT. SW WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP TO 15-25KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE E COAST AND LOW PRES TRACKS E ACROSS
CANADA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS MON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ON TUE
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
629 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA...BUT FOR EARLY MAR HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND NORMAL FROM NW CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE
RESULTING NW FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NAMERICA...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS OVER MT/SASKATCHEWAN. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING SE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LES
DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF NW UPPER MI ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BRUSHING
AREAS FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. FARTHER S...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE SOME SPOTS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO
ZERO...OTHERS ARE IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
DISSIPATING LOW PRES TROF AND MODERATING AIR MASS WILL BRING AN END
TO ANY LIGHT LES/FLURRIES AFFECTING THE FAR NE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN
MT/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF WAVE AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM SE
SASKATCHEWAN TO E CNTRL WI BY 12Z. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF FEATURE AND QPF...HAVE UTILIZED A SIMPLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR FCST. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WRN FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES SE ACROSS WI...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS. SO...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE ON TRACK
SHOWING HEAVIEST QPF IN A NW-SE STRIPE ACROSS WI. UTILIZING A 15/16
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WITH QPF ROUGHLY AROUND 0.05 N AND 0.2
ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER YIELDS SNOW AMOUNTS OF ROUGHLY AROUND 1 INCH
N AND 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. BEST CHC OF REACHING ADVY
CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES IN 12HRS IS IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. HELD
OFF ON ADVY SINCE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER QPF.
DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR A HEADLINE. FARTHER
E...850MB TEMPS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MI. ALTHOUGH DISPLACED FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING...SHALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE FAR N END OF THE LAKE MAY HELP BOOST SNOW
TOTALS A BIT INTO THE SE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS DRYING AND SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH NO
REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
30S FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT NOTHING LIKE
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT....RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER
FROM THEIR EVENING LOWS.
THE BEGINNING OF A CONSIDERABLE STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UP ON SUNDAY.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
THERE COULD BE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT ON TUESDAY
WITH ARRIVAL OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED
AND AGGRESSIVE PUSHING SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BRIEFLY DURING THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD...BUT ECMWF AND GEM OR NOT
NEARLY AS COLD. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW FLAKES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT THE MILDER SOLUTIONS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY.
MILD...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN PERSIST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTN HOURS. NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL TRACK SE INTO NRN MN
THIS AFTN AND THEN ACROSS WI TONIGHT...SPREADING -SN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR LATE
THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX. FURTHER
REDUCTION TO IFR IS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...THOUGH BEING
FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE MAIN PCPN AREA...KCMX MAY REMAIN PREVAILING
MFVR WITH ONLY IFR AT TIMES. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST LOCALLY TO AROUND 25KT EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER SE LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS SE
THRU WI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 20KT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN/EVENING...KEEPING WINDS
UNDER 20KT. SW WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP TO 15-25KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE E COAST AND LOW PRES TRACKS E ACROSS
CANADA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS MON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ON TUE
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA...BUT FOR EARLY MAR HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND NORMAL FROM NW CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE
RESULTING NW FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NAMERICA...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS OVER MT/SASKATCHEWAN. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING SE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LES
DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF NW UPPER MI ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BRUSHING
AREAS FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. FARTHER S...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE SOME SPOTS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO
ZERO...OTHERS ARE IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
DISSIPATING LOW PRES TROF AND MODERATING AIR MASS WILL BRING AN END
TO ANY LIGHT LES/FLURRIES AFFECTING THE FAR NE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN
MT/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF WAVE AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM SE
SASKATCHEWAN TO E CNTRL WI BY 12Z. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF FEATURE AND QPF...HAVE UTILIZED A SIMPLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR FCST. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WRN FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES SE ACROSS WI...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS. SO...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE ON TRACK
SHOWING HEAVIEST QPF IN A NW-SE STRIPE ACROSS WI. UTILIZING A 15/16
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WITH QPF ROUGHLY AROUND 0.05 N AND 0.2
ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER YIELDS SNOW AMOUNTS OF ROUGHLY AROUND 1 INCH
N AND 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. BEST CHC OF REACHING ADVY
CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES IN 12HRS IS IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. HELD
OFF ON ADVY SINCE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER QPF.
DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR A HEADLINE. FARTHER
E...850MB TEMPS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MI. ALTHOUGH DISPLACED FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING...SHALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE FAR N END OF THE LAKE MAY HELP BOOST SNOW
TOTALS A BIT INTO THE SE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS DRYING AND SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH NO
REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
30S FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT NOTHING LIKE
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT....RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER
FROM THEIR EVENING LOWS.
THE BEGINNING OF A CONSIDERABLE STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UP ON SUNDAY.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
THERE COULD BE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT ON TUESDAY
WITH ARRIVAL OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED
AND AGGRESSIVE PUSHING SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BRIEFLY DURING THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD...BUT ECMWF AND GEM OR NOT
NEARLY AS COLD. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW FLAKES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT THE MILDER SOLUTIONS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY.
MILD...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN PERSIST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRI
MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST LOCALLY TO AROUND 25KT EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER SE LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS SE
THRU WI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 20KT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN/EVENING...KEEPING WINDS
UNDER 20KT. SW WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP TO 15-25KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE E COAST AND LOW PRES TRACKS E ACROSS
CANADA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS MON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ON TUE
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
535 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WAS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE REMAINING MINNESOTA ZONES SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AFTER SUNSET THINK CLOUDS MAY
REDEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND DECOUPLES. POCKETS OF FOG
CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT EITHER. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND VEER INTO THE NORTHLAND BY SUNRISE. DEGREE
OF MIXING IS UNCERTAIN AND DIRECTLY RELATED TO COOLING TRENDS. IF
THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS MIXING. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST BEST MOISTURE FEED HAS VEERED SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHLAND SINCE YESTERDAYS FORECAST AND HAVE NUDGED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THINK SKIES WILL
TREND GENERALLY TOWARD MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...AWAY
FROM THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT PARTLY TO MAINLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THE LLJ ENDS UP WEAKER THAN
FORECAST...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST AND DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
CLEARING AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. CARRYING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHEAST...TO THE LOW 50S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON AN ACTIVE NOTE...AS
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO
+9C ON THE ECMWF...WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE STRONG WAA SHOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND THEN PUSH EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3/4 TO 1
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE 50S IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THEN END AT SOME POINT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. MVFR CEILINGS WERE
DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH
INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE
RETREATING EAST AS A SOUTHWEST 850MB JET OF 40-50 KNOTS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE DID GO WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR ALL
BUT KHYR THIS EVENING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...DID KEEP A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KDLH/KHIB/KINL. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR LLWS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 26 46 34 45 / 0 10 10 30
INL 27 47 29 47 / 0 10 10 30
BRD 30 53 35 55 / 0 10 10 20
HYR 27 48 38 53 / 0 10 10 20
ASX 27 48 36 49 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE THE EVER POPULAR STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALL BUT CENTRAL MN
THIS MORNING. WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAINED...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
NEAR 30...WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10 WITH THE CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL MN. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE STAYING WITH US TODAY AS WELL AS NW FLOW WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN NODAK WORKS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME GOOD SPREAD IN
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ADVANCES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY BRINGING PRECIP IN SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE CAMS. FOR TIMING...FOLLOWED A NON-HRRR TIMING AS
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HOPWRF DO A BETTER JOB OF MATCHING UP WITH THE
FORCING SEEN WITH THE LLJ IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
AFTER TIMING...THE NEXT HURDLE IS P-TYPE. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR P-TYPE
TODAY WILL BE THE DEPTH OF ANY NEAR SURFACE MELTING LAYER...WITH NO
ELEVATED MELTING LAYERS EXPECTED...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF SNOW OR
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF HOW WARM IT GETS
TODAY AND THEREFOR KEEPS A MORE MIXED SCENARIO ALONG THE 94
CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-94. EVERYTHING NCEP RUNS
SAYS PRIMARY P-TYPE IS SNOW...EVEN ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WITH
MIXED PRECIP DOWN CLOSER TO THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. P-TYPE
FORECASTS FROM THE CAMS ARE MOSTLY A SNOW SCENARIO AS WELL. WHAT
MAKES RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TOUGH IS WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH PRECIP ONSET...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP PRECIP AS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HERE HAS WELL. YOU GO
THE ROUTE OF THE ECMWF AND MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF...YOU GET
SNOW WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 32 AND 35...RESULTING IN AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 2
AND 4 OF THE HOPWRF KEEP TEMPS AROUND 30 IN WRN WI...WHICH ALLOWS
FOR SNOW ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HOPWRF LIKELY STEM FROM LAND SURFACE MODELS
USED...WITH 2 AND 4 USING THE RAP LAND SFC MODEL WITH 1 AND 3 USING
THE NOAH MODEL. OUT THE GATE THIS MORNING...MEMBER 1 AND 3
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 2 AND 4 RUNNING TOO
COLD...SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER
AND LESS SNOW SCENARIO SHOWN WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3.
AFTER THE MAIN WAA PRECIP WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WE DO
LOSE RH IN THE ICE CRYSTAL MAKING LAYER...INDICATING ONLY SUPER
COOLED WATER DROPS WILL EXIST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ENDING THE PRECIP WITH DRIZZLE...THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT ONCE
WE LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE...WE WILL LOSE THE PRECIP GENERATION AS
WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SW FRINGE OF THE MPX CWA. WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...UPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE WARM UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH HOW WIDESPREAD OF A THUNDER THREAT WILL BE SEEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
BRIEF COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRIDAY SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SHOULD BRING
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WE SHOULD
SEE READINGS WARM THROUGH THE 30S IN THE EAST AND IN THE MID 50S
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE COULD SEE A 50 DEGREE READING IN THE METRO AS
WELL...IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUN.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH FRO LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH
SOME...AND LIFTS A MORE ROBUST LEADING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY. IF
THIS PANS OUT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN. THE 00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER YET AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY
FOR NOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BEST LI`S DO DROP BELOW ZERO AND THERE IS
SOME ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN MONDAY AFTERNOON SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. THIS LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER
MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MN BY
12Z TUE. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION TO THE EAST TUESDAY AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND MINUS 4
OVER THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD TO SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE AREA. LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AS WELL...AND THE GFS TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN WITH +10 TO +14 DEGREE
850MB AIR TEMPS LIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD
SEE A 60 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON IF
THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
P-TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...BUT RADAR IS REVEALING SOME MIX AND DRIZZLE ON THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON. QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW
WILL LAST 2-3 HOURS AT ANY GIVE LOCATION...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
RECEIVING LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH METRO
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE 1-3"...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS TOWARD NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...SO A SHARP CUTOFF THROUGH PARTS OF THE
METRO TOWARD EAU CLAIRE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MVFR...BUT THERE MAY
BE A BREAK IN THIS COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO THE FEW HOURS
OF VFR IN THE FORECAST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES IS OPTIMISTIC
COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE.
KMSP...NO REAL DIFFERENCE FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION. SNOW SHOULD BE
ESSENTIALLY OVER AROUND 21Z...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY ICING PROBLEMS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS POSS LATE. WINDS SSW 10-15G20 KTS.
MON...FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL. CHC -SHRA/TSRA. FROPA DURING THE DAY...WINDS
S AT 10KTS BECOMING NW 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE THE EVER POPULAR STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALL BUT CENTRAL MN
THIS MORNING. WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAINED...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
NEAR 30...WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10 WITH THE CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL MN. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE STAYING WITH US TODAY AS WELL AS NW FLOW WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN NODAK WORKS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME GOOD SPREAD IN
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ADVANCES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY BRINGING PRECIP IN SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE CAMS. FOR TIMING...FOLLOWED A NON-HRRR TIMING AS
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HOPWRF DO A BETTER JOB OF MATCHING UP WITH THE
FORCING SEEN WITH THE LLJ IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
AFTER TIMING...THE NEXT HURDLE IS P-TYPE. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR P-TYPE
TODAY WILL BE THE DEPTH OF ANY NEAR SURFACE MELTING LAYER...WITH NO
ELEVATED MELTING LAYERS EXPECTED...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF SNOW OR
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF HOW WARM IT GETS
TODAY AND THEREFOR KEEPS A MORE MIXED SCENARIO ALONG THE 94
CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-94. EVERYTHING NCEP RUNS
SAYS PRIMARY P-TYPE IS SNOW...EVEN ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WITH
MIXED PRECIP DOWN CLOSER TO THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. P-TYPE
FORECASTS FROM THE CAMS ARE MOSTLY A SNOW SCENARIO AS WELL. WHAT
MAKES RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TOUGH IS WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH PRECIP ONSET...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP PRECIP AS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HERE HAS WELL. YOU GO
THE ROUTE OF THE ECMWF AND MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF...YOU GET
SNOW WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 32 AND 35...RESULTING IN AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 2
AND 4 OF THE HOPWRF KEEP TEMPS AROUND 30 IN WRN WI...WHICH ALLOWS
FOR SNOW ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HOPWRF LIKELY STEM FROM LAND SURFACE MODELS
USED...WITH 2 AND 4 USING THE RAP LAND SFC MODEL WITH 1 AND 3 USING
THE NOAH MODEL. OUT THE GATE THIS MORNING...MEMBER 1 AND 3
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 2 AND 4 RUNNING TOO
COLD...SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER
AND LESS SNOW SCENARIO SHOWN WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3.
AFTER THE MAIN WAA PRECIP WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WE DO
LOSE RH IN THE ICE CRYSTAL MAKING LAYER...INDICATING ONLY SUPER
COOLED WATER DROPS WILL EXIST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ENDING THE PRECIP WITH DRIZZLE...THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT ONCE
WE LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE...WE WILL LOSE THE PRECIP GENERATION AS
WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SW FRINGE OF THE MPX CWA. WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...UPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE WARM UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH HOW WIDESPREAD OF A THUNDER THREAT WILL BE SEEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
BRIEF COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRIDAY SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SHOULD BRING
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WE SHOULD
SEE READINGS WARM THROUGH THE 30S IN THE EAST AND IN THE MID 50S
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE COULD SEE A 50 DEGREE READING IN THE METRO AS
WELL...IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUN.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH FRO LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH
SOME...AND LIFTS A MORE ROBUST LEADING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY. IF
THIS PANS OUT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN. THE 00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER YET AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY
FOR NOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BEST LI`S DO DROP BELOW ZERO AND THERE IS
SOME ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN MONDAY AFTERNOON SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. THIS LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER
MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MN BY
12Z TUE. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION TO THE EAST TUESDAY AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND MINUS 4
OVER THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD TO SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE AREA. LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AS WELL...AND THE GFS TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN WITH +10 TO +14 DEGREE
850MB AIR TEMPS LIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD
SEE A 60 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON IF
THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WAVE COMING TOGETHER IN THE DAKOTAS RIGHT NOW IS MAIN TROUBLE
MAKER FOR TODAY. SEEING SOME PRETTY LARGE TEMP/DEWP SPREADS ACROSS
MN THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPLAINS WHY BIGGEST CHANGE TO TAFS WAS
TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH A HOPWRF
MEAN TIMING. HEAVIEST PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO FALL OVER WRN
WI...WHERE SOME 3/4SM IN -SN WAS INTRODUCED. AS FOR
P-TYPE...WHERE IT FALLS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN ON THE
SIDE OF THE TYPE BEING SNOW...SO BEEFED UP THE SNOW MENTION AT ALL
BUT RWF...WHO LOOKS TO LARGELY MISS THE PRECIP. BESIDE DELAYING
THE SNOW...ALSO DELAYED VEERING OF WINDS OVER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NW AS A SFC LOW PARALLELS I-94 50 OR SO MILES TO THE
NORTH. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL...WITH CURRENT MVFR
CIGS EVENTUALLY SPREADING OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE HEIGHTS IMPROVE
AND WE MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT...BUT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE NW...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF
MVFR CIGS COME DOWN TO IMPACT ALL BUT RWF.
KMSP...LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL ONLY BE A 2 HOUR OR SO WINDOW WITH
PRECIP AROUND THE NOON HOUR...AND THAT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE SNOW WILL KNOCK
THE VIS BACK QUITE A BIT. WE HAVE WEST WINDS AT THE MOMENT...BUT
THOSE ARE LOCALIZED TO THE TWIN CITIES...WITH MORE SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER QUICKLY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST
AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DESCENDING AGAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW BCMG S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS POSS LATE. WINDS SSW 10-15G20 KTS.
MON...FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE THE EVER POPULAR STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALL BUT CENTRAL MN
THIS MORNING. WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAINED...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
NEAR 30...WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10 WITH THE CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL MN. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE STAYING WITH US TODAY AS WELL AS NW FLOW WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN NODAK WORKS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME GOOD SPREAD IN
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ADVANCES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY BRINGING PRECIP IN SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE CAMS. FOR TIMING...FOLLOWED A NON-HRRR TIMING AS
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HOPWRF DO A BETTER JOB OF MATCHING UP WITH THE
FORCING SEEN WITH THE LLJ IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
AFTER TIMING...THE NEXT HURDLE IS P-TYPE. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR P-TYPE
TODAY WILL BE THE DEPTH OF ANY NEAR SURFACE MELTING LAYER...WITH NO
ELEVATED MELTING LAYERS EXPECTED...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF SNOW OR
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF HOW WARM IT GETS
TODAY AND THEREFOR KEEPS A MORE MIXED SCENARIO ALONG THE 94
CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-94. EVERYTHING NCEP RUNS
SAYS PRIMARY P-TYPE IS SNOW...EVEN ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WITH
MIXED PRECIP DOWN CLOSER TO THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. P-TYPE
FORECASTS FROM THE CAMS ARE MOSTLY A SNOW SCENARIO AS WELL. WHAT
MAKES RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TOUGH IS WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH PRECIP ONSET...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP PRECIP AS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HERE HAS WELL. YOU GO
THE ROUTE OF THE ECMWF AND MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF...YOU GET
SNOW WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 32 AND 35...RESULTING IN AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 2
AND 4 OF THE HOPWRF KEEP TEMPS AROUND 30 IN WRN WI...WHICH ALLOWS
FOR SNOW ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HOPWRF LIKELY STEM FROM LAND SURFACE MODELS
USED...WITH 2 AND 4 USING THE RAP LAND SFC MODEL WITH 1 AND 3 USING
THE NOAH MODEL. OUT THE GATE THIS MORNING...MEMBER 1 AND 3
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 2 AND 4 RUNNING TOO
COLD...SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER
AND LESS SNOW SCENARIO SHOWN WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3.
AFTER THE MAIN WAA PRECIP WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WE DO
LOSE RH IN THE ICE CRYSTAL MAKING LAYER...INDICATING ONLY SUPER
COOLED WATER DROPS WILL EXIST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ENDING THE PRECIP WITH DRIZZLE...THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT ONCE
WE LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE...WE WILL LOSE THE PRECIP GENERATION AS
WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SW FRINGE OF THE MPX CWA. WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...UPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE WARM UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH HOW WIDESPREAD OF A THUNDER THREAT WILL BE SEEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
BRIEF COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRIDAY SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SHOULD BRING
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WE SHOULD
SEE READINGS WARM THROUGH THE 30S IN THE EAST AND IN THE MID 50S
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE COULD SEE A 50 DEGREE READING IN THE METRO AS
WELL...IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUN.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH FRO LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH
SOME...AND LIFTS A MORE ROBUST LEADING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY. IF
THIS PANS OUT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN. THE 00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER YET AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY
FOR NOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BEST LI`S DO DROP BELOW ZERO AND THERE IS
SOME ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN MONDAY AFTERNOON SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. THIS LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER
MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MN BY
12Z TUE. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION TO THE EAST TUESDAY AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND MINUS 4
OVER THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD TO SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE AREA. LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AS WELL...AND THE GFS TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN WITH +10 TO +14 DEGREE
850MB AIR TEMPS LIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD
SEE A 60 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON IF
THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
LOW-END VFR CLOUDS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SCATTERING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...UNTIL CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR ON
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI. HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE PRECIP AS WELL...MOSTLY FOCUSED
BETWEEN 15Z WEST /KAXN/ AND 03Z EAST /KEAU/. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 18 KTS DEVELOPING...THEN SHIFT TO
WEST/NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
KMSP...
CIGS CIRCA 4KFT MAY SCATTER OUT TEMPORARILY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL FILL BACK IN FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/-RA RETURNING AROUND 16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE BY DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS TO 17 KTS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MORE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS POSS LATE. WINDS SSW 10-15G20 KTS.
MON...FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
521 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 CST SAT MAR 5 2016
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
INTO GREAT LAKES WILL DAMPEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS FROM
THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL PLAINS. THE INCREASING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT WHICH WILL INITIALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB
SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE LOW OVER
ERN MT.
THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD PROMOTE STRENGTHENING SLY
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...RESULTING MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. ON SUNDAY...WEAK DCVA RELATED TO THE MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION/S/ MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS COUPLED WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A 40-50 KT LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROOTED ABOVE A STRENGTHENING CAP AT
AROUND 750 MB. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SOME CLOUDINESS
--ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA-- TURBULENT
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE OVER OUR WRN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH BUT RH VALUES OF
35-40 PERCENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MILD /LOW TO MID 50S/
OWING TO INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THE CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS LOW...THOUGH SOME DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG WAA AND A NEAR-SATURATED AIR MASS
PRESENT BENEATH A PRONOUNCED CAP. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS
FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
00Z/TUESDAY. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION DEPICTED IN PRIOR RUNS BY THE ECMWF.
ACCORDINGLY...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST INVOF THE MCK-
HDE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH N-CNTRL INTO SWRN NEB AT THAT TIME.
AS WE HAVE ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. BASED ON THESE MOST RECENT
MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH
CAPPING LIKELY INHIBITING ANY DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION OVER ERN
NEB/SWRN IA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...BUT GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS: 74 AT LNK...76 AT OMA
AND 75 AT OFK. WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST RH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 PERCENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE
ROBUST THREAT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ECMWF AND NAM KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WHILE THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND SREF MODELS INDICATING A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS
GOING...WHICH IS WHAT WE WILL MAINTAIN. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
COLD FRONTAL LOCATION...THERE IS STILL A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO MONDAY EVENING...MOST LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN NEB.
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 CST SAT MAR 5 2016
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A SPLIT-
FLOW REGIME...FEATURING A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TRACK
FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE BELT OF QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. THESE DATA
INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN-BRANCH AIR STREAM...POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT NO MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME SHOULD BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
BY SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE SRN
PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE
TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A MULTI-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN...DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAP MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT AT 1500-2000 FT AGL INCREASING INTO THE 45-55 KNOT
RANGE AFTER ABOUT 05Z. LOOK FOR THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
SOME SCT MID CLOUDS INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. A SCT TO BKN LAYER
WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FT WILL BE PSBL BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR
SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER GULF OF ALASKA WITH HEIGHT RISES
INTO WESTERN CANADA. WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SEEN IN
IR. CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH STRONG WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FLORIDA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS DRY LOWER LAYERS
WITH BASES AROUND 15K AND MINIMAL LIFT THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY WIND
SHIFT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLEARING SKIES WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S AS SKIES CLEAR. STRATUS WELL EAST
TODAY AND WILL NOT HAMPER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL. WINDS DIE
DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. VERY MILD/WARM AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE BENEATH THIS RIDGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND 60S TO
LOWER 70S SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD
LEAD TO WILDFIRE CONCERNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF HWY 83.
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP AID IN STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SFC DEW
POINTS RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83. A VERY
MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM MENTION
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM INDICATES BETWEEN 500 AND 800 J/KG OF COMPUTED
CAPE AND LI`S AROUND -3 AT H750MB. NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO OVERCOME THE CIN PRESENT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS AND DECIDED A
MENTION IS WARRANTED. IT IS A RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREA AT THIS
POINT...AND POPS CAN BE EXPANDED IF MODELS SHOW MORE AREAS FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. A SHARP DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS WOULD BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STRONG OR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER
NORTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...THE DRYLINE IS LESS DEFINED
AND LOW CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SO
STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...MOISTURE WRAPPING WEST WITHIN AREA OF STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/RAIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CHANGE OR MIX THE
RAIN WITH WET SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
SYSTEM STILL SLATED TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
PRESENTING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL SOLN INDICATES MVFR CIGS WOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND A TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD WITH A LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND AT TIMES WILL GUST ABOVE 25 MPH.
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH SATURDAY HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES.
ON SUNDAY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECT WARMER AIR
FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE /RISING DEW POINT TEMPS/
ANTICIPATE MIN RH VALUES TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY /LOWEST AROUND 20
PERCENT. WHILE NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECT AT THIS TIME...IF THE
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT...SUNDAY
CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN/TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1117 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT...BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASING NEARLY 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL START TO CROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE REGION. SUSTAINED 10M WINDS OF 6-12KTS
WILL PROMOTE ADEQUATE MECHANICAL MIXING TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM DECOUPLING...WHICH WILL TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVER
THE SANDHILLS...NORTH CENTRAL...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
FOR TOMORROW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE A SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
REGION. 12Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING ACROSS THE CWA SUPPORT STRONG MIXING
TO AT LEAST 850MB DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 750MB. CURRENT WIND FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF
MIXING TO 850MB...HOWEVER...SHOULD MIXING TO 750MB OCCUR...WIND
GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY BE 5 TO 10KTS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WILL BE INCREASING
CIRRUS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY NORTH OF A NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2 LINE...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO GO AS WARM AS THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE (MAV).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
BEGINNING 00Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ALLOW FOR MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY NEAR 70S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR SUNDAY. THE ABNORMALLY WARM AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE SPREAD. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE REGION SITS UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL
HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTH BACK INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SFC TD/S RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
LIES TO THE EAST OF THE FA. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS WOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. AT THIS
POINT...TEMPERATURES FAVOR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMIC
COOLING AND COOL AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
WAVE FOR A CHANGEOVER ACROSS OUR WEST. LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY THE FORECAST TRENDS DRY AND MILD AS A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA PRESENTS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
PRESENTING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL SOLN INDICATES MVFR CIGS WOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND A TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD WITH A LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND AT TIMES WILL GUST ABOVE 25 MPH.
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH SATURDAY HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES.
ON SUNDAY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECT WARMER AIR
FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE /RISING DEW POINT TEMPS/
ANTICIPATE MIN RH VALUES TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY /LOWEST AROUND 20
PERCENT. WHILE NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECT AT THIS TIME...IF THE
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT...SUNDAY
CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOLDAN
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ADJUST
SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
FREEZING RAIN HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE AND ROAD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE IMPROVED OR WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER AS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE REMOVED ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LEAVING ONLY MCINTOSH...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY COUNTIES IN IT UNTIL 15 UTC. ROADS REMAIN ICY IN OTHER
AREAS THAT HAD FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO WE STILL NEED TO
STRESS TRAVEL IMPACTS EVEN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THE 12
UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING SAMPLED AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 7 C NEAR 860 MB...CLEARLY SUPPORTING FULL
MELTING ALOFT AND THUS FREEZING RAIN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT GRANT/MORTON/BURLEIGH/KIDDER
COUNTIES ARE NOW REMOVED FROM ANY FURTHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REMOVE THESE COUNTIES.
THE REST OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SO THE
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KISN TO KBIS. CIGS
WILL ERODE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
FREEZING RAIN HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE AND ROAD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE IMPROVED OR WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER AS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE REMOVED ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LEAVING ONLY MCINTOSH...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY COUNTIES IN IT UNTIL 15 UTC. ROADS REMAIN ICY IN OTHER
AREAS THAT HAD FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO WE STILL NEED TO
STRESS TRAVEL IMPACTS EVEN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THE 12
UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING SAMPLED AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 7 C NEAR 860 MB...CLEARLY SUPPORTING FULL
MELTING ALOFT AND THUS FREEZING RAIN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT GRANT/MORTON/BURLEIGH/KIDDER
COUNTIES ARE NOW REMOVED FROM ANY FURTHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REMOVE THESE COUNTIES.
THE REST OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SO THE
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MVFR CIGS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID
MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KISN/KBIS. KMOT
AND KJMS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SOLID MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z-22Z...WHILE
KISN AND KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MVFR CIGS
AND THUS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR VFR CIGS. KDIK WILL SEE VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALL TERMINALS VFR FROM 00Z TO
12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE REMOVED ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LEAVING ONLY MCINTOSH...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY COUNTIES IN IT UNTIL 15 UTC. ROADS REMAIN ICY IN OTHER
AREAS THAT HAD FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO WE STILL NEED TO
STRESS TRAVEL IMPACTS EVEN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THE 12
UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING SAMPLED AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 7 C NEAR 860 MB...CLEARLY SUPPORTING FULL
MELTING ALOFT AND THUS FREEZING RAIN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT GRANT/MORTON/BURLEIGH/KIDDER
COUNTIES ARE NOW REMOVED FROM ANY FURTHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REMOVE THESE COUNTIES.
THE REST OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SO THE
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MVFR CIGS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID
MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KISN/KBIS. KMOT
AND KJMS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SOLID MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z-22Z...WHILE
KISN AND KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MVFR CIGS
AND THUS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR VFR CIGS. KDIK WILL SEE VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALL TERMINALS VFR FROM 00Z TO
12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ048-
050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT GRANT/MORTON/BURLEIGH/KIDDER
COUNTIES ARE NOW REMOVED FROM ANY FURTHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REMOVE THESE COUNTIES.
THE REST OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SO THE
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM
CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT KBIS/KJMS...UNTIL 14Z.
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MVFR CIGS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY MID MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KISN/KBIS. KMOT AND KJMS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SOLID MVFR CIGS
FROM 15Z-22Z FRIDAY...WHILE KISN AND KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MVFR CIGS AND THUS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR
VFR CIGS. KDIK WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALL
TERMINALS VFR FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ037-
045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM
CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT KBIS/KJMS...UNTIL 14Z.
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MVFR CIGS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY MID MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KISN/KBIS. KMOT AND KJMS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SOLID MVFR CIGS
FROM 15Z-22Z FRIDAY...WHILE KISN AND KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MVFR CIGS AND THUS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR
VFR CIGS. KDIK WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALL
TERMINALS VFR FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING
FOR NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
436 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. WEAK CLIPPER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 05Z...SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL ALLOW REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WHICH
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALL MODELS
SHOWING THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. CAN SEE THIS AREA OF SNOW ON RADAR
STRETCHING FROM AROUND CLEVELAND TO INDIANAPOLIS AT 05Z. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS...WITH
1-2 HOURS OF LIKELY OR HIGHER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 09Z FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO 15Z FOR THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY THINNING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS SO KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. ALSO ADDED SOME
DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST LAYER
IS GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 800MB BY THIS POINT PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINKING WE MAY ALREADY BE SEEING SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
IN AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...SO DID NOT GO TO AGGRESSIVE ON LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AS
THEY WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONE LAST AND RATHER VIGOROUS CLIPPER TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODELS AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...THERE ARE SOME
OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE CLIPPER AMPLITUDE AND TRACK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE NAM IS MILDER AND FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE
GFS IS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WV LOW LANDS...AND THE EURO
IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WV. WE LEAN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW LANDS. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...ALL MODELS INITIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
MAINLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AS LOWER LEVELS WARM
UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT SNOW
TO A MIX WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER DURING
SATURDAY...BEING FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE TRACK. TEMPS WILL START
NEAR FREEZING EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WARM RATHER RAPIDLY INTO THE
40S WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE LOW.
THE LOW WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LANDS...PERHAPS
ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE
30S...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...RANGING FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LOCKED IN FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE E COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS MEANS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED WX CONFINED MORE TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WX OVER THAT AREA WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STORMS. BUT BEFORE THAT...THE AREA
WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW FROM LAST EVENING QUICKLY TAPERING OFF...BUT DO HAVE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH A WET GROUND IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A
GOOD SWATH OF IFR VISIBILITY WITH THIS FEATURE IN NORTHERN
OHIO...SO TIMED THAT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND 09Z TO
15Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS THINNING QUICKLY...SO FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. OTHER THAN SOME IFR
CLOUDS ACROSS NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LOOKING GENERALLY
AT MVFR CIGS...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/04/16
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M L M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
112 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. WEAK CLIPPER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 05Z...SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL ALLOW REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WHICH
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALL MODELS
SHOWING THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. CAN SEE THIS AREA OF SNOW ON RADAR
STRETCHING FROM AROUND CLEVELAND TO INDIANAPOLIS AT 05Z. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS...WITH
1-2 HOURS OF LIKELY OR HIGHER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 09Z FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO 15Z FOR THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY THINNING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS SO KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. ALSO ADDED SOME
DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST LAYER
IS GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 800MB BY THIS POINT PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINKING WE MAY ALREADY BE SEEING SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
IN AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...SO DID NOT GO TO AGGRESSIVE ON LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AS
THEY WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOLLOWS QUICKLY FOR SATURDAY...AND WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION IN TWO STAGES. THE FIRST WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OF THE LEADING WARM FRONT...A BRIEF LULL...AND THEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. ONCE
AGAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE AN ISSUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AS SNOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MINIMAL WARMING SHOULD
TRANSITION IT TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT...SNOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN HEADING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFICULTIES TAKES AWAY
FROM THE CONFIDENCE HERE A LITTLE BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PHASE
CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LOCKED IN FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE E COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS MEANS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED WX CONFINED MORE TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WX OVER THAT AREA WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STORMS. BUT BEFORE THAT...THE AREA
WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW FROM LAST EVENING QUICKLY TAPERING OFF...BUT DO HAVE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH A WET GROUND IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A
GOOD SWATH OF IFR VISIBILITY WITH THIS FEATURE IN NORTHERN
OHIO...SO TIMED THAT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND 09Z TO
15Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS THINNING QUICKLY...SO FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. OTHER THAN SOME IFR
CLOUDS ACROSS NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LOOKING GENERALLY
AT MVFR CIGS...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/04/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M M L L L M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M L M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M L L L M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M L M M L M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1239 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. WEAK CLIPPER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 05Z...SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL ALLOW REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WHICH
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALL MODELS
SHOWING THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. CAN SEE THIS AREA OF SNOW ON RADAR
STRETCHING FROM AROUND CLEVELAND TO INDIANAPOLIS AT 05Z. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS...WITH
1-2 HOURS OF LIKELY OR HIGHER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 09Z FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO 15Z FOR THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY THINNING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS SO KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. ALSO ADDED SOME
DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST LAYER
IS GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 800MB BY THIS POINT PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINKING WE MAY ALREADY BE SEEING SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
IN AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...SO DID NOT GO TO AGGRESSIVE ON LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AS
THEY WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOLLOWS QUICKLY FOR SATURDAY...AND WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION IN TWO STAGES. THE FIRST WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OF THE LEADING WARM FRONT...A BRIEF LULL...AND THEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. ONCE
AGAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE AN ISSUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AS SNOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MINIMAL WARMING SHOULD
TRANSITION IT TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT...SNOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN HEADING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFICULTIES TAKES AWAY
FROM THE CONFIDENCE HERE A LITTLE BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PHASE
CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LOCKED IN FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE E COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS MEANS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED WX CONFINED MORE TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WX OVER THAT AREA WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STORMS. BUT BEFORE THAT...THE AREA
WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW FROM LAST EVENING QUICKLY TAPERING OFF...BUT DO HAVE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH A WET GROUND IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A
GOOD SWATH OF IFR VISIBILITY WITH THIS FEATURE IN NORTHERN
OHIO...SO TIMED THAT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND 09Z TO
15Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS THINNING QUICKLY...SO FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. OTHER THAN SOME IFR
CLOUDS ACROSS NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LOOKING GENERALLY
AT MVFR CIGS...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/04/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ006>008-013>016-018-026-035-036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A POTENT-LOOKING SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE S APPALACHIANS. WEAK FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME THRU CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING NO
MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A BLEND OF 18Z
ENSEMBLE QPF AND MORE RECENT HRRR/NAM OUTPUT SUPPORT ACCUMS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
SOMERSET CO...TO NO MORE THAN A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. SREF AND
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE ANY LGT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE
EXITING THE SE COUNTIES ARND DAWN.
TEMPS COULD FALL AS LOW AS THE UTEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THRU DAWN WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 25-30F RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NW TO SE. MSUNNY SKIES APPEAR A GOOD BET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM LATE MORNING ON. HOWEVER...ACROSS
THE S TIER...LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS LATEST MDL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE
MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG WARM UP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW
OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STARTING TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON. EXPECT A WIDE
RANGE OF CONDITIONS...SO USING TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER IT.
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME FOG AND HZ...WITH LOWER CIGS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SW GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SE. SE SITES LIKE LNS AND MDT MAY SEE SOME FOG BY 12Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AIRSPACE.
THU...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A POTENT-LOOKING SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE S APPALACHIANS. WEAK FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME THRU CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING NO
MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A BLEND OF 18Z
ENSEMBLE QPF AND MORE RECENT HRRR/NAM OUTPUT SUPPORT ACCUMS OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH SOME PLACES LIKELY SEEING NO ACCUM
AT ALL. SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE ANY LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE EXITING THE SE COUNTIES ARND DAWN.
TEMPS COULD FALL AS LOW AS THE UTEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THRU DAWN WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 25-30F RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NW TO SE. MSUNNY SKIES APPEAR A GOOD BET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM LATE MORNING ON. HOWEVER...ACROSS
THE S TIER...LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS LATEST MDL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE
MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG WARM UP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW
OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STARTING TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE RADAR.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON. EXPECT A WIDE
RANGE OF CONDITIONS...SO USING TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER IT.
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME FOG AND HZ...WITH LOWER CIGS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SW GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SE. SE SITES LIKE LNS AND MDT MAY SEE SOME FOG BY 12Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AIRSPACE.
THU...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
906 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A POTENT-LOOKING SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE S APPALACHIANS. WEAK FORCING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME THRU CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING NO
MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A BLEND OF 18Z
ENSEMBLE QPF AND MORE RECENT HRRR/NAM OUTPUT SUPPORT ACCUMS OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH SOME PLACES LIKELY SEEING NO ACCUM
AT ALL. SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE ANY LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE EXITING THE SE COUNTIES ARND DAWN.
TEMPS COULD FALL AS LOW AS THE UTEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THRU DAWN WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 25-30F RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NW TO SE. MSUNNY SKIES APPEAR A GOOD BET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM LATE MORNING ON. HOWEVER...ACROSS
THE S TIER...LOW CLOUDS COULD PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS LATEST MDL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE
MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG WARM UP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW
OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON. EXPECT A WIDE
RANGE OF CONDITIONS...SO USING TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER IT.
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME FOG AND HZ...WITH LOWER CIGS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SW GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SE. SE SITES LIKE LNS AND MDT MAY SEE SOME FOG BY 12Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AIRSPACE.
THU...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
733 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A POTENT-LOOKING SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE OHIO VALL INTO THE S APPALACHIANS. WEAK FORCING ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL COME THRU CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING NO MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. A BLEND OF 12Z ENSEMBLE QPF AND MORE RECENT HRRR/NAM/GFS
OUTPUT SUPPORT ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH SOME PLACES
LIKELY SEEING NO ACCUM AT ALL. SREF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LGT SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE SE COUNTIES ARND
DAWN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 30S WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START REBOUNDING RAPIDLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO IMPROVING SKIES AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG WARM UP THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW
OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A RUN AT 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL
NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON. EXPECT A WIDE
RANGE OF CONDITIONS...SO USING TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER IT.
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME FOG AND HZ...WITH LOWER CIGS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SW GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SE. SE SITES LIKE LNS AND MDT MAY SEE SOME FOG BY 12Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO
THE AIRSPACE.
THU...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
245 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL PULL
EAST AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE NOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMALS STARTING
MONDAY AND LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
BANDS OF DEFORMATION-ENHANCED...LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY
FALLING TO BETWEEN 1-2SM WERE FORMING NEAR A QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT
THAT STRETCHED ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH VERY CLOSE TO INTERSTATE
80. THESE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWBANDS WERE OCCURRING WITHIN A
BROADER AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT COVERED MOST OF PENN EARLY
THIS MORNING.
MOST METAR SITES ACROSS CENTRAL PENN SHOWED VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A VERY SLOW DECREASING TREND TO THE
SNOWFALL AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS
TODAY...WITH MOST PLACES LUCKY TO SEE ANOTHER ONE-HALF INCH OF
SNOW ACCUM /AND THAT WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ON THE COLDER- GRASSY
SURFACES/. A FEW SPOTS THAT GET CAUGHT WITHIN ONE OF THESE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION BANDS COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO BETWEEN
08-16Z.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF
PENN...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY EAST IN DIRECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
WEST-CENTRAL MTNS IN THE MORNING. LATES HRRR SHOWS THE VERY LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM KAOO...TO KUNV AND KIPT UNTIL
ABOUT 16-17Z. ACCUMS WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH - PROBABLY A DUSTING
TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ADDITIONAL. THAT SNOW AREA SHOULD
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE IN PLACE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS THRU VERY QUICKLY W-E. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN IN SOME OF THE
AREA IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE MID RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES...AND GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW AND CONVERGENCE...HAVE
BROUGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP FROM MDL TIMING OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW
SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME VERY LGT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME
ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK.
THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAFS THROUGH 05/06Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST MARCH 4 2016
BROAD AREA OF -SN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOCAL
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
AIRSPACE AROUND DAYBREAK/12Z. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE
MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR VIS AND LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF
THE AIRSPACE AS LOW CLOUDS GET TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK FOR
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT WITH MOST SPOTS VFR INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN/IFR SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
TUE...VFR. RAIN POSSIBLE TUE NGT WRN 1/3.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL PULL
EAST AND OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMALS STARTING
MONDAY AND LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
DISTINCT DRY SLOT ON RADAR SHOWING UP BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF VERY
MEAGER FORCING. WHAT SN IS OUT THERE IS REALLY LIGHT. TEMPS STILL
SLIGHTLY ABV FZG IN THE LOWER SUSQ - TOUGH TO GET IT TO STICK WHEN
THEY HAVE BEEN >32F ALL AFTN AND STILL INTO THE EVENING. THE DRY
AIR IS REALLY HAMPERING EFFORTS BY THE UPPER ATMOS TO SPREAD THE
SNOW INTO THE NERN MTNS AND POCONOS. KHGR IS DOWN TO 31F AND IT
HAS BEEN SNOWING LIGHTLY THERE FOR A WHILE. NARY A FLAKE HERE IN
HAPPY VALLEY. TRENDS OUT THERE NOW MATCH WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE BEEN PLAYING UP FOR A FEW RUNS. NEWEST NAM SNEAKING IN ALSO
MAKING VERY LITTLE SNOW FALL OVER A SWATH FROM SOMERSET TO
BERWICK. STILL LOOKING LIKE 1-2 A GOOD CALL OVERALL. JUST TWEAKING
THE NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE - CLOSE TO 1 - BETWEEN THE WC MTNS AND
THE FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE NC AND WC MTNS IN THE
MORNING. THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE IN PLACE AS UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU VERY QUICKLY W-E. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN IN
SOME OF THE AREA IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
PREV...
ANY LINGERING LGT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID AM ACROSS THE
AREA...AS MID LVL TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDL DATA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA...SO SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE MID RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES...AND GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW AND CONVERGENCE...HAVE
BROUGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP FROM MDL TIMING OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW
SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME VERY LGT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME
ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK.
THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAFS THROUGH 05/06Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST MARCH 4 2016
BROAD AREA OF -SN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOCAL
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
AIRSPACE AROUND DAYBREAK/12Z. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE
MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR VIS AND LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF
THE AIRSPACE AS LOW CLOUDS GET TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK FOR
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT WITH MOST SPOTS VFR INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN/IFR SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
TUE...VFR. RAIN POSSIBLE TUE NGT WRN 1/3.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
257 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOCKED IN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING
UP NEAR THE RADAR SITE. EXPECT ANY MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE RATHER SHALLOW AND WOULD NOT SHOW UP ON RADAR WELL. THE LATEST
RAP INDICATES A TROUGH AT 850 MB THAT WILL KEEP
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOWEST 100-
200 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.4-
0.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST OF THE LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
NEWFOUND GAP OBSERVATION AND IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
HAS COME TO AN END THERE. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE.
PW VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE QUARTER INCH RANGE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT WITH LOW PW
VALUES...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
MRX CWA...BUT THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE WAVE WILL BRUSH THROUGH JUST
TO OUR NORTH AND COULD EASILY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM
EXITS BY SUNDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK ALLOWING FOR QUIET...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS BY MID WEEK SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT MODEL TREND IS TOWARD BRINGING IN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THIS BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL BEGIN TO BRING SHOWERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY WITH POPS AT
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 34 64 38 / 10 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 32 60 36 / 10 0 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 32 60 36 / 10 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 29 53 33 / 10 0 20 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WHICH BROUGHT THE
BORDERLAND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. THE NEXT
EFFECT WILL SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING NEAR
RECORD VALUES SATURDAY.CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH A MODERATELY
STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVES IN THE BORDERLAND.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
JUST TO THE EAST OF EL PASO. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK WELL
BELOW NORMAL BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT NEAR 60.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WARM...DIRTY SKIES...LIGHT TO BREEZY WEST WINDS NEXT 24 HRS.
OUR PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 06Z TONIGHT AND
THEN DEAMPLIFY SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SAT.
ON A MINOR NOTE A BRIEF INCONSEQUENTIAL FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE
WILL PUSH AGAINST THE SACRAMENTO MTNS TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AFT 06Z BEFORE ERODING OUT BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF CI CLDS ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPS STILL TRYING TO APPROACH RECORDS. ANOTHER SHORT/WAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE SHOULD INTENSIFY
THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN COLO AND NMEX AND PUSH OUR AFTERNOON WINDS
INTO THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY.
SIM SHOWS THE LARGE COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CONTINUES OUR WAY ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AND LINGERING
TO LATER WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE IN AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN REMARKABLE CONSENSUS OUT TO 156 HOURS AND
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE MODERATE TO STRONG PACIFIC STORM STILL
REMAINS ON SCHEDULE. RECENT TREND OF GFS/ECMWF HAS CONTINUED IN
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN SOMEWHAT. BOTH MODELS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DIG INTO MEXICO AND FORM A CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF US BY TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW NOT JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTH OF EL PASO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING OVER WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST WINDOW FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF SHOULD NOT BE GREAT
AS SYSTEM UNABLE TO TAP INTO SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON ITS OWN MOISTURE. WPC QPF VALUES ARE IN THE .1 TO .25
RANGE WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS TO .5 INCHES FOR THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH...THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE MODERATE SNOWFALL. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER SOME MONDAY (THOUGH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP) AS PACIFIC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT THEN FOLLOWS TUESDAY
MORNING AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 7000 FT AS SHOWERS
BEGIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN AROUND 6000-7000 FT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE STORM. SACS COULD ACCUMULATE DECENT SNOW (5-8
INCHES) IN THE SACRAMENTOS (GFS) BUT SPREAD OUT OVER 36+
HOURS...MAY REMAIN UNDER WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH A SLOW
MOVING LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND FURTHER COMPLICATIONS OF SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE BACKDOOR AND RAP AROUND THE LOW...PRECIP MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BE JUST TO OUR EAST BY 06Z
THURSDAY. GFS MODELS WILL COOL US TO -23C AT H5 TUESDAY AND
FORECASTING SOUNDINGS GIVE US ABOUT 400 CAPE AND LI`S OF 0 TO -1
SO VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY. PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST IN THE .4 RANGE. GFS H7 WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE 35
TO 40 KNOT RANGE FOR SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN NMEX..FAR WEST TEXAS.
IN THE LONGER TERM...GFS FORECASTS OUR NEXT ROUND OF WX AROUND
MARCH 13 WITH AT LEAST SOME MTN SHOWERS AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 005/00Z -06/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
SCT/BKN180 LAYERS 300. TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS WEST 7-12 KTS AND
SOUTHWEST 10-15KTS AFT 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN INTO A STEADY WESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONES WILL MAY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES. WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST.
VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 51 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 81 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 59 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 77 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 41 80 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 78 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 82 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 41 81 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 47 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 48 81 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 79 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 82 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 66 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 66 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 29 70 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 76 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 78 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 70 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 40 74 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 76 31 73 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 76 28 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 74 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 41 80 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 39 80 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ110>112.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
20/04 NOVLAN / LUNDEEN
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
555 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...
WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ENDED...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS OVER FOR
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND UPPER VORT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF OHIO VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW DRY OUT THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT. WHILE THE HIRESW-ARW
SHOWED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
REGION. THE MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER SHALLOW ON MODELS INDICATING
SNOW FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
ISC GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO RISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING AND SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...
ONE FINAL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE AN
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE THE
CURRENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...THIS NEXT ONE WILL TAKE A TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...IS WEAKER...AND OVERALL HAS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY...850MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE THE CASE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR WV MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SW VA AND NW NC. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN. QPF IS ALSO LESS THAN THE CURRENT EVENT...MOST
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
1 INCH OR LESS WHERE IT SNOWS...WITH THE MOST EXPECTED IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. WITH 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY EDGING UPWARD TOWARD 0C DURING
THIS NEXT CLIPPER EVENT...AND THE INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH
SUN...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WEST TO
AROUND 50 IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...A BRIEF
SETBACK IS NOTED IN 850MB TEMPS...DROPPING BACK INTO THE -5C
RANGE. HOWEVER...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL IS AGAIN LIMITED AND
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD AGAIN YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST TO 50S
EAST...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 25-32F RANGE.
MONDAY BEGINS THE TREND TOWARD A COMPLETE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK. DEEP TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITH RIDGING AND A
CORRESPONDING SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES FROM THE CURRENT VALUES NEAR 552DM TO AROUND 582 DM BY MID
WEEK. 850MB TEMPS SURGE MONDAY FROM AROUND 0C AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY TO +12C BY 00Z TUE. WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER
EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...AND THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MUCH
OF THE WEEK SEEING TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH DEEP TROUGHING WESTERN U.S. AND UPPER RIDGING EASTERN
U.S. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SOME COMPARED WITH RECENT RUNS. THIS
IS ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL
GET...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING IT WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE THE
GFS ALLOWS IT TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY CHURNS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE ECMWF AGAIN MUCH SLOWER TO
BRING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN THE GFS. A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER CUTOFF LOW BY MONDAY.
FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY BE EXPECTED
BY MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO CONCERNS IN OUR CWA WILL BE AVOIDED...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...WE CAN
ANTICIPATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...BUT THAT APPEARS FROM ALL
ANGLES AT THIS POINT TO BE BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST FRIDAY...
DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW...FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE EAST TAF SITES OF KROA/KLYH/KDAN...THEN GRADUALLY TO BCB BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE KLWB/KBLF STICK TO IFR EARLY THEN NUDGE TOWARD
2000-3000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER BKN CIGS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA CREATING VFR CONDITIONS AS A
CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SATURDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
506 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...
WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ENDED...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS OVER FOR
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND UPPER VORT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF OHIO VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW DRY OUT THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT. WHILE THE HIRESW-ARW
SHOWED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
REGION. THE MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER SHALLOW ON MODELS INDICATING
SNOW FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
ISC GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO RISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING AND SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...
ONE FINAL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE AN
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE THE
CURRENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...THIS NEXT ONE WILL TAKE A TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...IS WEAKER...AND OVERALL HAS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY...850MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE THE CASE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR WV MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SW VA AND NW NC. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN. QPF IS ALSO LESS THAN THE CURRENT EVENT...MOST
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
1 INCH OR LESS WHERE IT SNOWS...WITH THE MOST EXPECTED IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. WITH 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY EDGING UPWARD TOWARD 0C DURING
THIS NEXT CLIPPER EVENT...AND THE INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH
SUN...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WEST TO
AROUND 50 IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...A BRIEF
SETBACK IS NOTED IN 850MB TEMPS...DROPPING BACK INTO THE -5C
RANGE. HOWEVER...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL IS AGAIN LIMITED AND
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD AGAIN YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST TO 50S
EAST...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 25-32F RANGE.
MONDAY BEGINS THE TREND TOWARD A COMPLETE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK. DEEP TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITH RIDGING AND A
CORRESPONDING SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES FROM THE CURRENT VALUES NEAR 552DM TO AROUND 582 DM BY MID
WEEK. 850MB TEMPS SURGE MONDAY FROM AROUND 0C AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY TO +12C BY 00Z TUE. WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER
EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...AND THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MUCH
OF THE WEEK SEEING TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH DEEP TROUGHING WESTERN U.S. AND UPPER RIDGING EASTERN
U.S. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SOME COMPARED WITH RECENT RUNS. THIS
IS ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL
GET...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING IT WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE THE
GFS ALLOWS IT TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY CHURNS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE ECMWF AGAIN MUCH SLOWER TO
BRING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN THE GFS. A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER CUTOFF LOW BY MONDAY.
FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY BE EXPECTED
BY MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO CONCERNS IN OUR CWA WILL BE AVOIDED...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...WE CAN
ANTICIPATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...BUT THAT APPEARS FROM ALL
ANGLES AT THIS POINT TO BE BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST...WITH RAIN MIXED IN AT DAN.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST WITH BETTER COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF LOWER VSBYS WITH
SNOW FROM 06-9Z...THEN MAINLY A FOG...LOW CLOUD SCENARIO WITH
MOIST LOW LVLS THROUGH MORNING. SHOULD SEE WINDS WORK AROUND TO
THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
TAF SITES OF ROA/LYH/DAN THEN GRADUALLY TO BCB BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE LWB/BLF STICK TO IFR EARLY THEN NUDGE TOWARD
2000-3000 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON UNDER BKN CIGS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1158 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SUNDAY. A LARGE
HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST THURSDAY...
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO WANE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. REGIONAL RADAR AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION ALONG THE SE COAST WILL HINDER MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE
AREA...SO MAINLY RELYING ON LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND UPPER VORT
MOVING ACROSS FOR SNOW. STILL THE MODELS HINTING AT BAND SETTING
UP IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH BOSTON NORTHEAST TOWARD
FARMVILLE...BUT THE HEAVIER BANDS LOOK TO BE JUST EAST...SO MAYBE
A 1-2 INCH MAX THERE ONCE IT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS...WITH SNOW STILL FALLING AT
MOST PLACES...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE BAND THAT SET UP EARLIER FROM SE WV TO AMHERST
PUT DOWN 2 TO 5 INCHES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG...AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEST
TO LOWER 30S EAST.
PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...
THIS BAND IS STARTING TO WANE SOMEWHAT AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...HEAVIER BAND OF
SHOWERS WELL SOUTH OF US MAY STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WHERE THIS LOW DEVELOPS EAST WILL IMPACT WHERE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY FORM. ATTM THAT LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF OUR SOUTHSIDE VA AREA...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE NEW RIVER VALLEY TO FAR SW
VA INTO PORTIONS OF NC MTNS MAY NOT GET MUCH AT ALL...1" OR LESS.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SOIL TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTING OF UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FEW OTHER FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE SNOW
AMOUNTS TOO.
AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN AND DEW POINTS
WILL COME UP. FOLLOWED THIS NON DIURNAL TREND TO ESTABLISH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORTED SNOW
FORMATION AT UPPER LEVELS BUT SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE EAST. THE EXCEPTION IS A BAND OF HIGHER QPF
POTENTIAL FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE QPF WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AND THE
DEEPENING LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT SNOWFALL RATES TO OVERCOME
MELTING. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE WITH THIS OUTCOME.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVEL BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHEAST COMPONENT BEFORE THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE SIMILAR WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THESE MODELS BRING ONE
BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA A FEW HOURS
LATER...THEN SHOWING AN AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW FROM
CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. IN GENERAL WILL FOLLOW THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY BUT NOT A WARNING. SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THE
TIMING...FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE
GETTING SNOW DURING FRIDAY MORNINGS PEAK TRAVEL TIME.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE.
UPPER JET ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROF THEN INTENSIFIES RESULTING IN
SOME STRONGER LIFT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AND SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
MAV VALUES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ALLOW ANY UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
TO SUBSIDE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AS ONE MORE CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS PIN ITS
ARRIVAL WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS CONSIDERABLY WEAK
WITH JUST A 1016 MB LOW. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE KEPT IN THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS EAST OF THE CWA. THE HIGHER
RIDGETOPS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NO HEADLINES
FOR WIND WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MINIMAL
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AS IT DEPARTS OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FOR SKIES TO FINALLY CLEAR ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY...IT WILL SEEM LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE FLIPPED A SWITCH FROM
WINTER TO SPRING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ANCHOR ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 580 DAM OVERHEAD. THESE
FACTORS WILL START A NOTEWORTHY WARMING TREND. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY COULD EASILY REACH THE 60S AND 70S. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW...BUT ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. EVENTUALLY...THE WARM
FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY REACH THE MID ATLANTIC TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST...WITH RAIN MIXED IN AT DAN.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST WITH BETTER COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF LOWER VSBYS WITH
SNOW FROM 06-9Z...THEN MAINLY A FOG...LOW CLOUD SCENARIO WITH
MOIST LOW LVLS THROUGH MORNING. SHOULD SEE WINDS WORK AROUND TO
THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
TAF SITES OF ROA/LYH/DAN THEN GRADUALLY TO BCB BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE LWB/BLF STICK TO IFR EARLY THEN NUDGE TOWARD
2000-3000 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON UNDER BKN CIGS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018-019.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1034 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the area tonight with
heavy rain, strong winds, and localized flooding. Additional rain,
along with heavy snow in the mountains, is on tap for Sunday,
Monday, and late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Strong storm system moving through NorCal this evening with cold
front highlighted by low topped squall line. Wind gusts to 50 mph
causing scattered power outages have occurred in many spots this
evening. Rainfall amounts near 1.00 inches for most valley
locations with isolated amounts up to 3.00 inches over the 24 hour
period...2 to 6 inches over the Sierra. 2 to 3 inches fell over
the Lake county burn scars...which prompted a flash flood warning.
Snow levels are running between 5500-6000 feet and will fall to
4000 by morning. Heavy snow with rates of 2-3 per hour will be
likely over the Sierra overnight with hazardous travel for
interstate 80 and Highway 50.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH INCREASING WIND AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
VALLEY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS PRESENTLY ENHANCING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAY AREA WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW INSIDE OF 130W, AND
WITH ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT, IT WILL MOVE ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL BY
MID TO LATE EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE THUNDER. STRONG ASCENT AND WIDE SWATH OF DEEP TPW (IN
EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES) AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULT IN EXTREME WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT ANOMALIES THIS EVENING (> 7 SD ON NAEFS MEAN
IVT!), SO HEAVY RAIN NEARLY CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE BURN SCARS AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF
FLOOD ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS.
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRESNO TO
MEDFORD GRADIENT IS NOW AROUND 15 MBS, AND THE HRRR FORECASTS IT
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 19-20 MBS BY 02Z AS A 992 MB SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WIND EVENT EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 925 MB WINDS FORECAST TO REACH NEARLY 70 KTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE
LIKELY.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA PASSES LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW ALONG THE CREST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FOOT
OR TWO POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 5000 FEET. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS PROFILERS INDICATE THE SNOW LEVEL IS STILL
ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TAPERS BY 12Z SUNDAY, THEN PICKS UP AGAIN
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BREAK IN THE WEATHER LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Upper ridging over the area Wednesday shifts east allowing some
overrunning precip. GFS keeps this precip mainly north of the
forecast area while the EC spreads it over most of the CWA.
Forecast is a blend of these Wednesday.
Models in better agreement Thursday into Friday and advertise
another atmospheric river dropping slowly south through Interior
NorCal. QPF values look to be significant during this period. By
Saturday, forecast confidence lowers as EC returns upper ridging
and drier weather, while the GFS keeps moist cyclonic flow and
showers, along with strong wind, especially in orographically
favored mountains.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...
Frontal system will impact NorCal tonight into Sunday morning.
Expect widespread MVFR/IFR conditions during frontal passage with
local LIFR over mountains. Strong southwest winds aloft with
moderate to strong southerly winds in the valley. Wind gusts
ranging 30 to 50 kts...locally higher over ridgetops. Winds are
beginning to decrease in the valley as of 06z, but still gusty in
some areas. JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM PST Sunday for Clear Lake/Southern
Lake County-Motherlode-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST
OF TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND...STRONGER AND
COLDER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT REIGNITING SHOWERS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 9 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYED A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OUT AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 06/00Z KNKX SOUNDING
INDICATED WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL LEVELS WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 300 MB. AN IMPRESSIVE PW VALUE OF 0.99" WAS
ALSO NOTED. 24-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER
ONSHORE WITH SAN-TPH STRENGTHENING TO +9.4 MB.
SO FAR THIS EVENING...RADAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BENIGN. HOWEVER...THE
00Z WRF...00Z NAM4...AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN ALL AGREE IN
DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
06/0600Z-0900Z TONIGHT. THESE MODELS PROG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH. THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BRING GENERALLY
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH A HALF IN THE MOUNTAINS...AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE UPPER DESERTS...AND NEXT TO NOTHING TO THE
LOWER DESERTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET...SO
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULDN`T BE AN IMPACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A COLDER AND STRONGER STORM
WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING BETWEEN
-25C AND -27C. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GFS GENERATES 100-300 J/KG
SURFACE CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COAST AND VALLEYS. UNSTABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. T-STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL FROM THIS SECOND
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH NEAR THE
COAST TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONE THIRD INCH OR LESS IN
THE UPPER DESERTS AND ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWER DESERTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET MONDAY AND 4000 TO 4500
FEET MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000
FEET WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 TO 7500 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS BUILD A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
060430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS UNDER 2000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND FORM INLAND WITH THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ONSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 06/0600Z WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MORE COMMON.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
TRANSITION TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER 06/2000Z SHOWER WILL BE COMING TO AN END...WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY UP TO 20 KTS...AND CEILINGS WILL BE
LIFTING TO AROUND 3000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AFTER 07/1200Z
MONDAY EXPECT MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.
MOUNTAINS...WEST SLOPES AND PASSES... 1500 FEET ABOVE MSL AND HIGHER
WILL HAVE OBSCURED DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG AND PERIODS RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON 06/2200Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK AGAIN UNTIL
MONDAY AROUND 07/1200Z WHEN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWERED CEILINGS.
MOUNTAINS...EAST SLOPES...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. WSW WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT AFTER 06/04000Z
SFC GUSTS 35-50 KT OVER THE RIDGES AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES
THROUGH 07/1200Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED STG UDDFS...LLWS...AND ROTORS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST THE MTNS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 830 PM...8-11 FT WEST SWELL SOUTHEAST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A 4-7 FT SWELL ELSEWHERE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A LARGER WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY...PEAKING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AT 14-18 FT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER MONDAY
FROM 30-35 KT WHEN A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. THE WINDS AND SWELL
WILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS NEAR 20 FT SOUTHEAST OF SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND ON MONDAY...WITH 10 TO 15 FT COMBINED SEAS ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. RAIN LIKELY MONDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.BEACHES...
830 PM...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF WARNING THAT
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 4 PM TUESDAY.
A 6-10 FT WEST SWELL FROM 280 DEGREES WILL GENERATE 4-7 FT SURF WITH
LOCAL SETS TO 8 FT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A 12
TO 18 FT SWELL FROM 285 DEGREES WITH A PERIOD OF 13-15 SEC WILL
BRING EVEN HIGHER SURF. PEAK SURF WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SURF FROM 8-15 FT...AND SETS AS HIGH AS 18 FEET
IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY THROUGH
NOON TUESDAY FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY LARGE SURF...GUSTY WINDS...AND PROJECTED HIGH
TIDES NEAR 6 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER LATE TUESDAY.
FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE HIGH SURF WARNING AND THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY (LAXCFWSGX)...AND THE SURF FORECAST (LAXSRFSGX).
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON PST TUESDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PIERCE/MOEDE/ALBRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Clouds continue to slowly decrease from west to east this evening
as weak high pressure settles over the area. HRRR continues to
suggest the band of clouds will continue to decrease in coverage
over the rest of this evening. The combination of a clear sky,
light winds and residual moisture from previous days precipitation
may lead to some patchy fog over parts of our area, but coverage
appears to be too limited to include in the forecast at this
time. As the high shifts off to our east on Sunday, southerly
winds will increase during the day with gusts up to 25 mph in the
afternoon, especially across west central Illinois, which should
help get our warm up underway. Other than some tweaking of the
sky condition and hourly temperatures this evening, the current
forecast has a good handle on the late evening/overnight trends.
As a result, no early evening update will be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Despite passage of a short-wave trough and its associated cold
front, clouds continue to blanket central Illinois this afternoon.
In fact, 20z/2pm visible satellite imagery shows continuous cloud
cover upstream into Wisconsin and the eastern half of Iowa as well.
Based on the trajectory of the clouds, the KILX CWA will remain on
the southwest periphery of the cloud shield through at least early
evening. HRRR has been consistently showing the clouds partially
dissipating from the W/SW toward sunset, resulting in mostly clear
skies across much of the area by mid to late evening. Think this
may be a bit too aggressive with the clearing, so have slowed trends
from previous forecasts. Have started the evening with mostly
cloudy skies everywhere except across the far southwest around
Jacksonville where partly to mostly clear conditions will prevail.
As per the latest HRRR, have then cleared things out from west to
east through the evening, but have maintained mostly cloudy skies
northeast of I-74 until well after midnight. Due to the clearing
skies and diminishing winds, have undercut MAV guidance numbers by a
couple of degrees, with frosty overnight lows in the middle to upper
20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Mild temperatures and wet weather will be the primary features for
much of the upcoming forecast period through next Saturday.
For Sunday, brisk southerly winds around 15 mph and gusts around 25
mph will set up by afternoon west of I-57 as a corridor of strong
moist southwesterly flow sets up over the Plains. This will initiate
showers and a few thunderstorms, potentially creeping eastward into
west-central IL Sunday night. Highs should reach the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees in Springfield and Jacksonville. Mild lows in the
mid 40s expected Sunday night as precipitable water around 1 inch,
or approaching 99th percentile for this time of year, plumes over
central IL.
On Monday, southerly winds expected to increase to 15-20 mph and
gust to 25-30 mph. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s as
warm advection continues, and rich precipitable water continues to
stream over Illinois. Still, weak forcing appears it will result in
modest precipitation chances and amounts, mainly I-72 northward.
The moisture plume looks to remain in the vicinity through midweek
as a frontal boundary lingers just to the northwest, and a series of
disturbances track along the front bringing periods of heavier rain.
Some uncertainty remain in the location of the front through midweek
and this will modulate the exact timing and location of
precipitation through midweek, however likely to categorical (80%+)
chance of precipitation included in the forecast for Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, and current precipitation amounts 2-2.5
inches I-72 southward expected through this period, with 0.5 to 2.0
inches to the north. Instability pattern indicates occasional
thunderstorms a possibility. A hydrologic outlook remains in effect
to address the heavy rain concern during this period. Highs through
midweek expected to remain mild, from around 60 to 65 degrees.
Next weekend...a cut-off low that should be meandering over
Mexico midweek is progged to eject northeast toward central IL.
Unfortunately, the timing and track of this feature is highly
uncertain as evidenced by a variety of differing model and
ensemble solutions available at this time. This feature will have
impacts on the position of the frontal boundary, temperatures, and
precipitation for central IL. With the front position still a
significant question, PoP`s generally remain in place over most of
the forecast area into Saturday. High temperatures forecast from
around 60 to 65, but this will be subject to change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
Pesky band of mostly MVFR cigs continues to slowly erode on the
west and eastern edges of the cloud shield making for a rather
difficult forecast for the overnight hours. Short term high
resolution forecast soundings continue to show a gradual decrease
in moisture in the 2500-3500 foot level over the next 3 to 6
hours. With a steep subsidence inversion in place trapping the
low level moisture, models have been too aggressive with the
clearing across the forecast area. Last few runs of the rapid
refresh model now backing off on any clearing taking place in
CMI, but at the same time, satellite data indicating significant
breaks starting to develop to the south and north of CMI over
the past couple of hours. Will continue with the gradual decrease
in clouds overnight with VFR conditions expected during the day
Sunday.
Light and variable winds tonight will turn southerly on Sunday
and increase in speed to between 12 and 17 kts with a few gusts
up to 25 kts in the afternoon, especially across our western
TAF sites (PIA and SPI). Borderline non-convective LLWS setup
for tomorrow night with 925 mb winds around 45 kts, but sfc
wind gusts are expected to hold up enough overnight to limit
the impact of the stronger winds aloft. So for this forecast
issuance, will not include LLWS Sunday night/Monday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
257 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE WARM AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL MIXING TAPPING INTO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND PUSHING WIND SPEEDS WELL INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT GREAT OF A SIGNAL. ANOTHER WARM AND VERY
WINDY DAY ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MONDAY ACROSS
KANSAS.
MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AND FEEL THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY-LINE BEING LIMITED. ALSO
WOULD THINK SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT OR REMAIN
MORE SHALLOW DUE TOO THE VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
GFS/ECMWF MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD
PUSH THE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM KANSAS THIS PERIOD. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
PREDICTABILITY OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION AREAS SPREADING THIS FAR
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST POSITIONING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS. THEY COULD BE A BIT TOO
BULLISH WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FIELDS.
JAKUB
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
MAIN STORY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY...AS A LEE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 40-50 KTS OVERNIGHT...HELD ONTO
INHERITED LLWS THROUGH EARLY TO MID-MORNING SUNDAY...WITH THE BASE
OF THE LLWS AROUND 1000 FT AGL PER RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS.
STOUT/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BETWEEN 14-17Z SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 24-28 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...SHOULD SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY
BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
ICT-HUT-SLN...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR LOWER TOWARD 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
EVEN THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WONT BE AT EXTREMELY LOW
VALUES...THE WEATHER CONDITIONS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO FEB 18TH AND ON THAT DAY THE REGION EXPERIENCED
NUMEROUS LARGE GRASS FIRES. LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF KANSAS SINCE THAT DATE. WE FEEL THAT THIS LONG PERSISTENT DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG SOUTH
WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WILL NOT
LIMIT THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR VERY DANGEROUS GRASSLAND FIRE
CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. THIS IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED
BY OUR EXTREME READINGS IN OUR GFDI INDEX...AND GOING RED FLAG
WARNING IS WARRANTED.
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS
AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR BEHIND
EASTWARD MOVING DRY LINE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX EASTWARD.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 59 75 55 / 20 10 10 30
HUTCHINSON 77 59 78 52 / 20 10 10 20
NEWTON 76 59 75 55 / 20 10 10 30
ELDORADO 74 59 73 57 / 20 10 10 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 75 59 73 58 / 20 10 10 40
RUSSELL 81 56 83 45 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 80 57 83 46 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 77 59 77 52 / 20 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 76 59 77 53 / 20 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 75 59 71 60 / 10 20 20 50
CHANUTE 74 58 71 59 / 10 20 20 50
IOLA 74 58 71 59 / 10 20 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 74 59 71 60 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1249 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWERS WE HAVE BEEN PLAGUED WITH HAVE
TAPERED OFF IN MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTION IS TOWARD THE VA BORDER
WHERE EVEN A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WHILE WE
HAVE SOME STRATUS AROUND LATE THIS EVENING...WE HAVE NOT SEEN
SHARP DROPS IN VIS DUE TO FOG. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE PATCHY
DENSE IN THE GRIDS AND NOTHING MORE UNLESS FURTHER DEGRADATION OF
VIS OCCURS. OTHERWISE TEMPS MAYBE TRICKY WHERE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
ARE STARTING BECOME MORE BKN OR EVEN CLR...RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
OVERALL CAA SHOULD HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. UPDATED
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
WSR-88D CONTINUES TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
HEARD ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. THE MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS ARE NOW TRACKING SE INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION OF
EASTERN TN. OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THAT IS
WINDING DOWN AND WE ARE SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE. THE
QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG OR SUPPRESSED STRATUS
DO WE SEE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ASOS SITES THAT HAD DENSE FOG HAVE
SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST THERE WILL BE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILD EAST. RIGHT NOW WILL GO PATCHY DENSE AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW WILL ALSO KEEP IT
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON A BLANKET SPS. IMPROVEMENTS
STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND WE MIX
OUT THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS PUSHING A
FAIRLY LARGE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
EARLIER...THIS LOW HELPED TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
RELEASING THE AREA FROM CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S. CURRENTLY...READINGS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTH AND THE LOWER 50S SOUTH ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...HAVE ALSO CLIMBED WITH THE UPPER 30S AND
40S MOST COMMON AS THE RAIN STARTS TO MOVE IN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A COMPACT WAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHARP LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY AN EQUALLY DISTINCT RIDGE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF FIRMLY OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUILDING INTO MONDAY AS IT STARTS TO BE PUMPED UP DUE TO
ITS POSITION DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. LOOK
FOR THE RIDGE TO KEEP ANY MID LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA KEEPING THE WX QUIET. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
MAINLY JUST NEAR TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WITH STRONG LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12
SOLUTIONS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SFC
WAVE PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR DOES FOLLOW THIS
LOW BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY SNOW MIXING IN BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PCPN DEPARTS. OF A LARGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AROUND AND ANTICIPATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAVE HIT THE FOG RATHER HARD IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
AREAS HAVING SOME DENSE FOG. RIDGES MAY SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...AS
WELL...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON...FOR MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALSO...WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAWN MONDAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DISTINCTIONS. AS FOR
POP...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MET VALUES INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE NEARLY ZEROING THEM OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND
DRY...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STUBBORNLY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AT FIRST AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY
HAPPEN IS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG
UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY STALLS...AND INSTABILITY BECOMES TAPPED OUT...GENERAL
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DOMINATE FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEKS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE SPRING ALL WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH NIGHTLY MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERY NIGHT
EXCEPT MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RADAR...PRECIP HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED
ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND SHOULD POSE LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...THIS HIGH IS WORKING TO SUPPRESS LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S RAINS BENEATH A STRONG LLVL
INVERSION...LEADING TO BOTH FOG AND LOW STRATUS COVERAGE. EXPECT
THAT AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR OR LIFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SITES COULD BOUNCE FROM
ONE CATEGORY TO THE OTHER AS WELL. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSION STRENGTHENING DURING THE MORNING...SO CIGS AND FOG MAY
BE SLOW TO MIX OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING TOWARD VFR
GENERALLY BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z AS SRLY WINDS TAKE HOLD AT THE
SURFACE AND ALLOW ENOUGH WARMING FOR MIXING TO OCCUR. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE IS
LEADING RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST TAF SITES ARE A BIT MORE TRICKY...AS THEY MAY
SEE SOME CLEARING AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
NEXT ISSUE THAT REMAINS A CONCERN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TONIGHT. A FEW SITES SUCH AS JKL/SYM HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SIGNS OF THIS WITH LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES. THEREFORE DID
TEMPO THOSE SITES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MORE FLUCTUATION
EARLY ON. OTHERWISE HELD BACK TO LOW MVFR ON OTHER TAF SITES GIVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. WHILE INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL TRAP SURFACE MOISTURE...WE LOOK TO MIX OUT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BIGGER IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
.AVIATION...
FOG DEVELOPED AGGRESSIVELY UNDER CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND PRODUCING
LIFR RESTRICTION AT MBS DURING LATE EVENING WHICH IS ABOUT TO
DEVELOP AT FNT TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WIDE SWINGS IN
VISIBILITY THAT IS TYPICAL OF SHALLOW FOG HAVE BEEN LESS FREQUENT
AND THERE IS A HINT OF SATELLITE INDICATION AT PRESS TIME THAT
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A PREVAILING LIFR CONDITION WHILE THE SKY IS
CLEAR. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING LINE WILL
REACH...THROUGH PTK BUT LIKELY NOT TO DTW...BEFORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS STALLS AT SOME POINT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL BRING THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST BACK NORTHWARD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITY BUT MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. A CLEARING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS
THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR DTW...THE CLEARING TREND OBSERVED MOVING INTO FNT TO PTK HAS A
LOW CHANCE OF REACHING DTW BEFORE THE TREND REVERSES NORTHWARD
DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS OVER INDIANA AND OHIO WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH MORNING. A LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING TREND IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET DURING THE NIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 300 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016
DISCUSSION...
ACCUMULATING SNOW COMING TO AN END BY 00Z...AS 700 MB COLD POOL OF
-14 TO -15 C EXITS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN...WITH WARMING MID LEVELS AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB BUILDS INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE BACKDROP FOR COLD (AROUND
10 DEGREES) MINS IF CLOUDS BREAK. THE RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TO SKEW
THE FORECAST ON CLOUDIER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MINS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER 20S/AROUND 20 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...CLEARING TREND WORKING DOWN FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING FAIRLY AGRESSIVE...AND DO WANT TO GIVE
WEIGHT TO THE 12Z EURO WHICH ALLOWS FOR CLEARING IN NORTH HALF OF
CWA...ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. IF CLEARING DOES EXTEND
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...COULD HAVE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT
ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING TOMORROW...WARM ADVECTION
REALLY KICKS...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS LATE
IN THE DAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE ABOVE 0
C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH...CONCERNS WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS WITH THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE.
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...DESPITE SURFACE DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 30S. 12Z
EURO/NAM BOTH INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS RISING JUST ABOVE 10
C ON MONDAY...SUGGESTIVE OF MAXES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE OUR PAST WARMUP`S IN FEBRUARY...WARM ADVECTION MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT THICKER/PERSISTENT...AND WILL TEMPER
THE WARMUP A BIT AND KEEP MAXES IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD YIELD
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...MOISTURE PLUME OF PWAT 1+ INCHES WILL CREEP
EASTWARD AHEAD OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ENSURE MAINLY DRY
AND VERY MILD WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
STALLING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MIDWEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD
FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD KNOCK
TEMPS DOWN BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS DRIER AIR WILL FEED IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. WINDS THEN WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH.
WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
LAKE HURON...PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE...WITH WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS. A MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
251 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS FOG OVERNIGHT AND RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NE MN FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF NW WI. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY WARMER FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
FORECAST REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS OVER
NW WI TODAY THAN NE MM WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THAT
AREA. OVERNIGHT...SOUNDINGS DO SHOW INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE MELTING
SNOW...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS AREA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FORM THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONING
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS IN EASTERN SD BY 06Z TUESDAY AND THEN
IT ELONGATES AS IT MOVES TO THE MN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WITH A POTENT VORT MAX FOLLOWS CLOSELY
BEHIND. THIS APPROACH RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING WITH
SOME LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT FROM NW WI TO THE I35 CORRIDOR AND UP THE
NORTH SHORE. MADE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE MENTION OF THUNDER MONDAY
EVENING AND KEPT IT OUT OF THE AREA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE INSTABILITY IS FURTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY INCREASES TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WORDING AS
ANY STORM FORMATION WILL BE ELEVATED. MAINTAINED THE PATCHY FOG AS
WELL. ON TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON LOCATION OF SFC LOW
AND ITS IMPACT ON THE REGION AS WELL AS UPPER TROF. WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
AND PATCHY FOG. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM
PUSHES ITS COLD FRONT OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE
ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND TAKE THEIR COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROF. THIS AFFECTS POP PLACEMENT
AND QPF. WILL MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON FROPA. BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE A SMALL POP OVER PRICE COUNTY FOR ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. A DRY PATTERN IS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TROUGH SATURDAY WITH RIDGING NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. THESE CEILINGS MAY IMPACT
KHYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE WERE ALSO SOME PATCHY
IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE HRRR WANTS
TO DEVELOP THESE LOWER CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...BUT THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ SHOULD KEEP THESE CEILINGS FROM
MAKING MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS. THE LATEST RAP IS DOING A BETTER
JOB WITH ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DOES PUSH MOST OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE JET PROGRESSES EAST. LLWS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A MENTION IN ALL
TAFS ATTM. IF SURFACE WINDS INCREASE MORE AND START TO GUST MORE
FREQUENTLY...THE LLWS MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 34 45 38 / 10 10 30 60
INL 47 29 47 37 / 0 10 30 50
BRD 53 35 55 42 / 0 10 20 50
HYR 49 38 53 46 / 10 10 20 60
ASX 48 36 49 40 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...FROSIG
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WAS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE REMAINING MINNESOTA ZONES SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AFTER SUNSET THINK CLOUDS MAY
REDEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND DECOUPLES. POCKETS OF FOG
CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT EITHER. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND VEER INTO THE NORTHLAND BY SUNRISE. DEGREE
OF MIXING IS UNCERTAIN AND DIRECTLY RELATED TO COOLING TRENDS. IF
THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS MIXING. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST.
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST BEST MOISTURE FEED HAS VEERED SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHLAND SINCE YESTERDAYS FORECAST AND HAVE NUDGED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THINK SKIES WILL
TREND GENERALLY TOWARD MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...AWAY
FROM THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT PARTLY TO MAINLY
CLOUDY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THE LLJ ENDS UP WEAKER THAN
FORECAST...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST AND DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
CLEARING AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. CARRYING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHEAST...TO THE LOW 50S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON AN ACTIVE NOTE...AS
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO
+9C ON THE ECMWF...WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE STRONG WAA SHOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND THEN PUSH EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3/4 TO 1
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE 50S IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THEN END AT SOME POINT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. THESE CEILINGS MAY IMPACT
KHYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE WERE ALSO SOME PATCHY
IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE HRRR WANTS
TO DEVELOP THESE LOWER CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...BUT THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ SHOULD KEEP THESE CEILINGS FROM
MAKING MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS. THE LATEST RAP IS DOING A BETTER
JOB WITH ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DOES PUSH MOST OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE JET PROGRESSES EAST. LLWS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A MENTION IN ALL
TAFS ATTM. IF SURFACE WINDS INCREASE MORE AND START TO GUST MORE
FREQUENTLY...THE LLWS MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 23 46 34 45 / 0 10 10 30
INL 24 47 29 47 / 0 10 10 30
BRD 29 53 35 55 / 0 10 10 20
HYR 22 48 38 53 / 0 10 10 20
ASX 23 48 36 49 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
243 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL LIFT DUE TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS SW VA AND N TN. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS SW VA AND N TN. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION.
THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW VA AND N TN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS LIFT THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH PW VALUES AROUND A QUARTER
INCH...THEREFORE...EXPECT CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIT MILDER IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. BY WEDNESDAY...THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. BY THURSDAY...WE WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST...ALLOWING THE APPROACH OF A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
HUNG UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DETAILS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IS
LACKING. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THOUGH...MAY ALSO SEE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING
MENTIONED MAINLY AROUND THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 35 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 38 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 34 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY TODAY. PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WILL BE
QUITE MODEST. A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DISPLACING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THE JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM IS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA.
THE RIDGE IS CAUSING A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A LOT DIFFLUENCE OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS OF THIS WRITING...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE L.A. BASIN AND CONTINUING OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM IS A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A LOT OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OFF AS MUCH AS THEY WOULD OTHERWISE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME VERY WEAK
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EMBEDDED IN THOSE CLOUDS TRACKING ACROSS LA
PAZ...NORTHERN MARICOPA...GILA COUNTY...AND POINTS NORTH. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
WHICH HAS KEPT MIXING GOING. AS A SIDE NOTE...THOSE WINDS HAVE
ADVECTED HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INLAND AND THE BEST QG FORCING TRACKING JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THERE IS ALSO RAIN SHADOWING OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO CONTEND
WITH WHICH WILL PUT A DENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS THE FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS MODEST
TODAY/TONIGHT. SREF DEPICTS A TINY BIT OF CAPE BRUSHING OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MERIT MENTION OF T-STORMS. WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOST NOTICEABLY FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS FOR US. WINDS LOOK TO BE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN OUR MOST DUST PRONE AREA OF PINAL COUNTY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY BUT UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WILL CAUSE
IT TO DIG SOUTHWARD ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICAL FORCING AFFECTS COASTAL CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND
FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS
TIME SUCH THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA...BUT NOT GREAT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH DECREASING CHANCES
EASTWARD...OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE PATTERN OFTEN IS. AN EXCEPTION WOULD
BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. PRECIP AMOUNTS...IF
ANY...WILL BE QUITE MODEST. CAPE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO MEAGER TO
MENTION T-STORMS. POPS TRAIL OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AND END
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME NICE
ADDITIONAL COOLING COMES IN WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
FINALLY DROPPING BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND. A WEAKENING TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS
DEPICTS SOME VERY LIGHT QPF BUT ECMWF AND GEM DO NOT. NAEFS POPS
REMAIN LOW. NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS TIME TO MENTION PRECIP
OUTSIDE OF JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL MONUMENT AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE COOLER
TEMPS GOING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR
PHOENIX TERMINALS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE TRADITIONAL
EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO WESTERLY MUCH EARLIER
THAN USUAL (MID TO LATE MORNING) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT. GUSTS IN A 20-30KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE THICK CLOUDS ABOVE THE 12K FT LEVEL
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG AND GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORCE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AT KIPL TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FROPA AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONLY MODERATE. KBLH WILL LIKELY SEE
SPEEDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DIRECTIONS FAVORING THE
W/SW. GUSTS MAY FALL IN A 30-35KT RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND THE 6K FT LEVEL MAY
ALSO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
EVEN MORE COOLING ARRIVES MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM AFFECTS
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO THOUGH THERE WILL BE A DECENT
CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST OF THERE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER MONDAY WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY BREEZINESS ON TUESDAY...LESS SO ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME
BREEZINESS RETURNING FRIDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. AFTER A TEMPORARY INCREASE MONDAY...HUMIDITIES DECLINE
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM VALUES DIPPING BELOW 15
PERCENT MOST PLACES BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY REMAINS GOOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ020-021-025-026.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1058 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.UPDATE...
While winds remain gusty across the region, overall peak gusts
have been below 40 to 45 mph. Therefore, have cancelled the Wind
Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region this evening.
There may be a brief burst of stronger winds overnight ahead of
the cold front, but still do not expect the stronger winds to be
widespread or last long.
Taking a look at current radar trends this evening, a strong NCFR
(Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband) formed just ahead of the cold
front, which is situated around north central CA as of 10:45 pm.
MRMS trends indicated rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in
this band and reports out of the Sacramento Valley confirmed this
with plenty of flooded areas. The band also produced strong and
damaging winds with Beale Air Force Base even having a peak gust
of 76 MPH. Now what does this mean for the eastern Sierra and
western NV...this band is quite unstable, which will produce high
snowfall rates tonight. It is possible to see snow falling at
rates which would exceed plow capabilities and travel will be
extremely dangerous in the Sierra overnight. Snow levels are
currently in the 6500 to 7500 foot range and will rapidly fall
due to the convective remnants of the NCFR, then will further fall
as the cold front pushes across the region overnight. The unstable
atmosphere in conjunction with the cold front will also allow for
efficient spillover into western Nevada between now and Sunday
morning.
With snow levels dropping off, flooding concerns are being
mitigated. While noticeable rises will occur on area rivers,
creeks, and streams, no flooding is expected at this time. -Dawn
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Multiple storm systems pushing into the West Coast will bring rounds
of winds, rain and snow through Monday. Significant travel impacts
are likely for the Sierra starting tonight and into Monday. The
Monday morning commute will likely be impacted by snow covered
roads, even in the lower Nevada valleys.
SHORT TERM...
A few changes were made for the afternoon package, mainly to
increase precipitation and snow amounts for the Sierra and in
western NV through Monday morning. Also, we have gone ahead and
issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower valleys of
northeastern CA and the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas for Sunday
night into Monday morning.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS:
* Winter Storm Warnings in effect for the Lake Tahoe Basin and
Mono County from tonight through Monday morning.
* High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect this afternoon
and tonight for strong, damaging winds in the Sierra and western
Nevada. Secure outdoor furniture or belongings and be prepared
for the possibility of downed trees and power outages.
* Significant travel impacts likely in the Sierra especially tonight
when snow levels lower below pass level. Have an alternate plan
if you must travel and be prepared for slow downs and delays.
* Another second round of moderate to heavy snow is expected
Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread snow impacts,
even the valley floors of Reno-Carson-City-Minden for the Monday
morning commute.
Moisture is already pushing onshore and into the western slopes of
the Sierra this afternoon with convective areas developing, just
like we saw yesterday afternoon. Snow levels are currently around
7500-8000 feet and expected to come down this evening as heavier
precipitation arrives. Strong winds are expected to continue into
the overnight hours tonight, peaking out around midnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. Main concerns of the high
winds will be crosswinds, downed trees and powerlines, dangerous
boating conditions, as well as blowing dust for areas east of
Highway 395.
The deep atmospheric river is coming onshore tonight, with
precipitable water amounts over 1.4". Impressive precipitation
rates are expected tonight as the atmospheric river makes
landfall. Precip rates of around 0.2-0.4" per hour will be common
in the Sierra starting tonight and through early Sunday morning.
This may cause some problems for creeks and streams in the Sierra,
as heavy rains potentially causing some minor flooding. The
mainstem Truckee River near Truckee and Feather River near Portola
are expected to get to monitor stage, but no flooding is expected
at this time. See hydrology section below for more details.
Heavy rain will transition to heavy snow overnight in the Sierra
as snow levels drop behind the cold front to around 5000 feet by
Sunday morning. Here are the time frames for rain to turn into
snow with the cold frontal passage:
* Donner Pass and Echo Summit: 10PM to 1AM tonight
* Lake Tahoe Level: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
* Highway 395/203 interchange in Mono County: 1AM to 4AM Sunday
morning.
Very heavy snowfall rates are possible in the Sierra tonight, with
2-4" per hour possible at times. For tonight, Sierra snowfall
will be around 1-2 feet with 6-12 inches at the 6000-7000 foot
level. These heavy snowfall rates will create significant travel
concerns. Delays and closures are likely, as well as whiteout
conditions that may prove deadly for any backcountry users
especially in the overnight hours. Additional snowfall is expected
again Sunday night with the second wave. The storm total snowfall
amounts tonight through Monday morning will end up around 1-2
feet for 6000-7000 feet (including Lake Tahoe) and 2-4 feet for
elevations above 7000 feet. Localized heavier amounts are possible
near the Sierra Crest.
Snow levels will lower to valley floors (around 4000 feet Sunday
night) with snowfall potential to the lower elevations as well. We
have issued Winter Weather Advisories for the lower elevations of
northeastern CA and far western NV, including Reno- Sparks-
Carson-Minden. We expect to see widespread 2-4 inches for the
valley floors of western NV along with 4-8 inches possible for the
foothills and elevations above 5000 feet. This will be a major
impact to the Monday morning commute and people should plan to
allow for extra time to reach their destinations Monday morning.
Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Medium range guidance seems to be in a little better agreement for
overall weather pattern through Friday, indicating less activity
through midweek, then becoming more active Thursday-Friday. Next
weekend there is more model divergence, with scenarios ranging
widely from dry and mild to another significant wind and
precipitation event for much of the region.
Tuesday is most likely to be the driest day of the upcoming week as
ridge builds into the Sierra. This ridge is projected to flatten
Tuesday night-Wednesday with some warm air advection moisture
spreading into the Sierra and western NV. The better chances for
snow and rain are indicated mainly north of I-80, but precipitation
amounts should generally be light. These warm advection events
typically contain an isothermal layer below 700 mb when they occur
at night, so we kept snow levels rather low thru early Wed morning
(mainly between 4500-5500 feet), before rising quickly during the
day.
A stronger low pressure is then on track for later in the week,
although the main moisture feed appears to be stalling across
northwest-north central CA for much of Thursday, before pushing
through the Sierra Thursday night-early Friday. Given this overall
trend, we emphasized the winds becoming the main impact for
Thursday, with potential for strong gusts above 50 mph in lower
elevations and above 100 mph for Sierra ridges. Some precip is
probable over northeast CA and near the Sierra Crest during the day
Thursday, but the best chances appear to hold off until Thursday
night and early Friday, then diminishing to showers during the day
Friday. This storm does not appear as cold with snow levels behind
the front only dropping to near 5000-5500 feet, limiting potential
for snow accumulation for valley floors. Precip/snowfall amounts
near the Sierra are highly uncertain for this event, as the location
of the main moisture feed could still vary before the main trough
and cold front pushes it through the remainder of the region.
For next weekend, overall forecast confidence becomes lower due to
greater model discrepancies. While some scenarios suggest a
rebuilding of a ridge which would bring dry conditions with
temperatures rising to above average, others maintain a series of
moderate to strong shortwaves reaching the Sierra with a cooler air
mass. Given the overall active weather pattern with a strong Pacific
jet stream likely to persist, we will trend toward the more
aggressive storm potential, with a decent chance of snow for the
Sierra and rain-snow mix in lower elevations, and temperatures
cooler than average. MJD
AVIATION...
Widespread weather impacts to aviation will continue through early
Monday. Strong gusty winds will affect the entire forecast area for
the next couple of days, with the strongest surface gusts up to 55
kt through tonight east of the Sierra. Over the ridges...gusts will
exceed 90 kts. Widespread turbulence is expected across the region,
with LLWS possible at times especially Sunday-Sunday night.
Tonight the snow levels will begin falling, leading to IFR or worse
conditions especially for terminals near the Sierra. Heavy
accumulating snows are likely at KTVL/KTRK/KMMH overnight and early
Sunday with over 6 inches on pavement likely. For lower elevations
rain will increase tonight which may end as a brief period of snow
early Sunday morning, with paved surfaces generally wet.
Additional round of snow returns to the region Sunday night into
Monday morning, with IFR or worse conditions again and another 6 or
more inches accumulating on runways at terminals near the Sierra.
Impacts for lower elevations are more likely with this event, where
a couple inches of snow may accumulate on paved surfaces. MJD
HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain this evening will lead to rapid rises on rivers, creeks
and streams mainly for northeast CA and around the Tahoe basin
including the Middle Fork Feather, Susan and Truckee rivers. The
timing of the changeover to snow will determine how much of a rise
will occur. The current projection of a quick drop in snow levels
between 10 PM and 1 AM would probably keep all mainstem rivers below
flood stage. However, if the rain persists longer than anticipated
then the threat for minor river flooding would increase (on the
Truckee River, this potential would remain well upstream from Reno,
mainly near the city of Truckee). Smaller creeks and streams around
the Tahoe basin may briefly rise above bankfull even with the most
likely timing of the rain-snow changeover, but significant flooding
impacts are unlikely. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1034 PM PST SAT MAR 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the area tonight with
heavy rain, strong winds, and localized flooding. Additional rain,
along with heavy snow in the mountains, is on tap for Sunday,
Monday, and late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Strong storm system moving through NorCal this evening with cold
front highlighted by low topped squall line. Wind gusts to 50 mph
causing scattered power outages have occurred in many spots this
evening. Rainfall amounts near 1.00 inches for most valley
locations with isolated amounts up to 3.00 inches over the 24 hour
period...2 to 6 inches over the Sierra. 2 to 3 inches fell over
the Lake county burn scars...which prompted a flash flood warning.
Snow levels are running between 5500-6000 feet and will fall to
4000 by morning. Heavy snow with rates of 2-3 per hour will be
likely over the Sierra overnight with hazardous travel for
interstate 80 and Highway 50.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH INCREASING WIND AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
VALLEY INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS PRESENTLY ENHANCING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAY AREA WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW INSIDE OF 130W, AND
WITH ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT, IT WILL MOVE ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL BY
MID TO LATE EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE THUNDER. STRONG ASCENT AND WIDE SWATH OF DEEP TPW (IN
EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES) AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULT IN EXTREME WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT ANOMALIES THIS EVENING (> 7 SD ON NAEFS MEAN
IVT!), SO HEAVY RAIN NEARLY CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE BURN SCARS AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF
FLOOD ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS.
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRESNO TO
MEDFORD GRADIENT IS NOW AROUND 15 MBS, AND THE HRRR FORECASTS IT
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 19-20 MBS BY 02Z AS A 992 MB SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WIND EVENT EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 925 MB WINDS FORECAST TO REACH NEARLY 70 KTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE WILL BE
LIKELY.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA PASSES LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW ALONG THE CREST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FOOT
OR TWO POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 5000 FEET. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS PROFILERS INDICATE THE SNOW LEVEL IS STILL
ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TAPERS BY 12Z SUNDAY, THEN PICKS UP AGAIN
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BREAK IN THE WEATHER LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Upper ridging over the area Wednesday shifts east allowing some
overrunning precip. GFS keeps this precip mainly north of the
forecast area while the EC spreads it over most of the CWA.
Forecast is a blend of these Wednesday.
Models in better agreement Thursday into Friday and advertise
another atmospheric river dropping slowly south through Interior
NorCal. QPF values look to be significant during this period. By
Saturday, forecast confidence lowers as EC returns upper ridging
and drier weather, while the GFS keeps moist cyclonic flow and
showers, along with strong wind, especially in orographically
favored mountains.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...
Frontal system will impact NorCal tonight into Sunday morning.
Expect widespread MVFR/IFR conditions during frontal passage with
local LIFR over mountains. Strong southwest winds aloft with
moderate to strong southerly winds in the valley. Wind gusts
ranging 30 to 50 kts...locally higher over ridgetops. Winds are
beginning to decrease in the valley as of 06z, but still gusty in
some areas. JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM PST Sunday for Clear Lake/Southern
Lake County-Motherlode-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
605 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
The 08z/2am surface analysis shows the surface ridge axis extending
from N to S across far eastern IL, with a warm frontal boundary
developing along the Missouri River into the northern Plains. Low
clouds are lingering under the surface ridge in eastern Illinois,
but they should dissipate shortly before sunrise.
As the surface high departs farther to the east today, southerly
winds will develop. Increasing pressure gradient and mixing of
strong mid level winds to the surface will help produce wind gusts
in the 25 to 30 mph range at times this afternoon. The strengthening
southerly flow will also bring the warm frontal clouds into central
Illinois, creating mostly cloudy conditions before the end of the
day. Despite the limited afternoon sunshine, warm advection breezes
will help high temps climb 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Highs will range from around 50 toward Danville, to near 60 degrees
around Jacksonville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Upper pattern currently in transition to a warmer and wetter
regime, allowing highs in the 60s much of the week past today.
One trough was approaching the East Coast early this morning, with
another sharpening trough just off the West Coast. This latter one
will continue to dig and close off a low over southern California by
Monday evening, with the upper low slowly drifting over northern and
central Mexico until late week. This track will produce an
impressive surge of moisture in a couple days, coming up from near
the Yucatan Peninsula into Louisiana. GFS progs indicate PWAT values
approaching 1.4-1.5 inches advecting into southeast Illinois by
Wednesday, close to maximum climatological values for this time of
year.
Have made some adjustments to the PoP`s for tonight, focusing more
on the period west of I-55 after midnight as forecast soundings are
pretty dry below 600 mb through the evening. This area of showers
will increase to our west in the evening as the low level jet ramps
up, then spread northeast. Most of the evening model guidance dries
out the area by Monday afternoon, with a period of dry conditions
through the evening. PoP`s ramp up again after midnight Monday night
across the western CWA as the nocturnal jet increases again,
associated with a surface low tracking across Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota.
Main period of concern for heavy rains will be Tuesday evening
through Wednesday night. The surface low should be near or just
north of Lake Superior by late Tuesday evening, with a cold front
extending southwest toward a low over southeast Oklahoma. First
surge of heavier precipitation will ride northeast along the
boundary, which will be in the general vicinity of the Illinois
River around midday Wednesday. The GFS is a tad faster than the
ECMWF in pushing this boundary across most of the forecast area by
late Wednesday evening, but still a fair amount of uncertainty in
how much and how long it hangs up over the area. Have spread the
categorical PoP`s (around 80%) as far northwest as the Illinois
River Tuesday night, and continue to keep them going east of I-55
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Potential exists for a few inches of
rain south of the boundary with the rich moisture feed. The
precipitation will be cutting off from the west Thursday morning as
an upper wave approaches.
Significant model differences in the longer range, as the upper low
over Mexico weakens and lifts northeast. The ECMWF shears it out
faster (over southern Texas), allowing some upper ridging which
keeps the first part of the weekend dry. The GFS gets the low`s
remnants all the way into southeast Illinois by late Sunday, with
the earlier frontal boundary being pushed back northward late this
week and featuring much more precipitation along it. Blended model
guidance initialization is drawing in more of the GFS scenario
than desired, so have backed off on some of the PoP`s by about
10-15% and removed the likely PoP`s on Saturday for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Clouds have cleared from the TAF sites early this morning.
Residual boundary layer moisture near CMI has allowed MVFR fog to
develop. We can`t rule out a brief spike down to IFR or LIFR fog
at CMI. The latest HRRR forecast shows better chances of dense
fog farther to the southeast of CMI, so will keep MVFR prevailing
until the fog dissipates by 14z. The remainder of today will
feature increasing mid and high clouds ahead of a developing warm
front. Precipitation will hold off until later tonight, as the
lower levels saturate with time. A few light showers will be
mainly confined to areas along and west of I-55. Therefore, VCSH
was included after 10z tonight for BMI, SPI, and PIA. VFR
conditions should prevail through 12z tomorrow morn, for the most
part.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
939 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIM NORTHERN MAIN ON MONDAY...BUT THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. IT COULD SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...LOOKS LIKE UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA
ATTM...AND THERE IS ONLY CLEARING BEHIND IT...SO HAVE IMPROVED SKY
CONDS THRU THE REST OF TODAY. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE SOME WEAK MID LVL
WAA MOVING A FEW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30-40F RANGE FROM N TO S.
7 AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE. HRRR AND OTHERS NOT MODELING THIS WELL SO WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AND MAKE SURE THIS STAYS OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE FINE IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF CALM WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAY
TRY AND DEVELOP... SO THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF OF A STRAY
SPRINKLE REACHING THE SHORE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...
AND WINDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER FROM THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTH STREAM WILL BRUSH US
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR TWO OR SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WE WILL SEE READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MORNING SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH
AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR TWO. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MODELS NOW SLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING IT WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES.
EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...930 AM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS THE SWELL BREAKS DOWN OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR MON IN STRONG SW FLOW.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...
MARINE...CEMPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
705 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE. HRRR AND OTHERS NOT MODELING THIS WELL SO WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AND MAKE SURE THIS STAYS OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE FINE IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF CALM WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAY
TRY AND DEVELOP... SO THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF OF A STRAY
SPRINKLE REACHING THE SHORE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...
AND WINDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER FROM THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTH STREAM WILL BRUSH US
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR TWO OR SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WE WILL SEE READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MORNING SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH
AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR TWO. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MODELS NOW SLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING IT WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES.
EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFTS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS FOR HIGH SEAS
ALTHOUGH PERIODS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE. THIS SWELL IS FROM AN
OFFSHORE SYSTEM AND WAVES SHOULD BE LESS IMPACTFUL THAN IF THEY
WERE FROM WIND WAVES.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
703 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PUSHING ONSHORE
OVER THE W COAST. THIS IS FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS WHICH IN TURN IS FORCING THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EASTWARD.
THUS...THE LONG ADVERTISED WARM UP IS GETTING UNDERWAY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WHICH FAILED TO BREAK UP ACROSS WI AND
A GOOD PART OF UPPER MI YESTERDAY ARE STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF
THE SRN AND ERN FCST AREA. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRES ARE PREVENTING THESE LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING
INTO THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W AND NCNTRL. OTHERWISE...WAA
PATTERN SHIFTING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY BTWN HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE E COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50+KT WINDS 2-3KFT OFF THE GROUND.
FORTUNATELY...MIXED LAYER WILL NOT BUILD HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO 30-35MPH GUSTS AT
TIMES... ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND E. EXPECT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE S AND E TO EXIT TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE A
SLOW PROCESS OVER THE E AS TRAJECTORIES INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD
UPSTREAM OF THAT AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER
THE W...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THAT AREA.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF CHILLY LAKE MI...TEMPS OVER THE E
WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S TODAY. FINALLY...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE E...REACHING NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. COMBINED WITH ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PCPN WILL
LIKELY BREAK OUT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE COLUMN HAS A BETTER
CHC OF SATURATING DUE TO BEING DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR
MASS. FARTHER S...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIBBON OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 200-300J/KG SURGING NE INTO THE
FAR SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. 06Z
NAM IS EVEN HIGHER...SHOWING 1-3KM MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 500-700J/KG
BRUSHING THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MI. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO LUCE COUNTY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
IS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IF ANY PCPN DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
LATER TONIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING AT LEAST NW
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY SNOWMELT...MAY SEE PATCHY
-DZ DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BEGINNING FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...FOG MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS HOLDING OVER THE REGION. 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIR INTO HE REGION ON SW FLOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 7C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 8-9C BY 0Z WEDNESDAY. A 5H TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NW ONTARIO WILL DROP A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
NW ONTARIO AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND EC ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE...THUS WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DAY 4 AND BEYOND.
MON/TUE...GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK CONTINUING. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
FROM MELTING SNOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST EVEN AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT LATE MONDAY. THUS WILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...PCPN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. INCREASING
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AND
SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND 0C SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 850 MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 50 W AND MID 40S E ON MONDAY WITH THE 50S
COMMON ON TUESDAY.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL TURN NW TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING. GFS DOES BRING 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 0C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT
IN MENTION OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO WARM 850 MB TEMPS UP. SFC LOW SWINGS WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
AREA. ANY LINGERING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPS TO COOL A BIT WED AND THUR BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRI THROUGH SAT...WARMING RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. GFS
SHOWS 85H TEMPS REACHING 13C OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF THE
MODELS...WITH GFS QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND
THUS EARLIER WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ANY CASE...WITH ZONAL
FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY QUICKLY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. WITH MILD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE
HIGH...AREA TO STAY WARM AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
PESKY MVFR CIGS AT KSAW SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
MORNING AS BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN WI IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF INCREASING MOVEMENT TO THE NE. AT KIWD/KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RESULTING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER
THE AREA WILL LEAD TO LLWS THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASED MIXING LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTN...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO INCREASINGLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
RATHER THAN LLWS. GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS AT KIWD/KSAW. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH...FG/-DZ SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NW WILL LEAD TO S TO SW WINDS OF 15-30KT TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS OVER THE LAKE.
AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER S ON MON AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
NRN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TO AT LEAST 15-25KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN
NE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE S WITH
THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ARRIVAL OF
MOISTER AIR IN THIS FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL
CAUSE SOME FOG. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES
PASSES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WNW AND PROBABLY UP TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME. THE ARRIVAL
OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS LATER ON
WED INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...RJT
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PUSHING ONSHORE
OVER THE W COAST. THIS IS FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS WHICH IN TURN IS FORCING THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EASTWARD.
THUS...THE LONG ADVERTISED WARM UP IS GETTING UNDERWAY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WHICH FAILED TO BREAK UP ACROSS WI AND
A GOOD PART OF UPPER MI YESTERDAY ARE STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF
THE SRN AND ERN FCST AREA. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRES ARE PREVENTING THESE LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING
INTO THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W AND NCNTRL. OTHERWISE...WAA
PATTERN SHIFTING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY BTWN HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE E COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50+KT WINDS 2-3KFT OFF THE GROUND.
FORTUNATELY...MIXED LAYER WILL NOT BUILD HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO 30-35MPH GUSTS AT
TIMES... ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND E. EXPECT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE S AND E TO EXIT TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE A
SLOW PROCESS OVER THE E AS TRAJECTORIES INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD
UPSTREAM OF THAT AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER
THE W...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THAT AREA.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF CHILLY LAKE MI...TEMPS OVER THE E
WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S TODAY. FINALLY...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE E...REACHING NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. COMBINED WITH ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PCPN WILL
LIKELY BREAK OUT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE COLUMN HAS A BETTER
CHC OF SATURATING DUE TO BEING DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR
MASS. FARTHER S...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIBBON OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 200-300J/KG SURGING NE INTO THE
FAR SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. 06Z
NAM IS EVEN HIGHER...SHOWING 1-3KM MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 500-700J/KG
BRUSHING THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MI. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO LUCE COUNTY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
IS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IF ANY PCPN DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
LATER TONIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING AT LEAST NW
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY SNOWMELT...MAY SEE PATCHY
-DZ DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BEGINNING FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...FOG MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS HOLDING OVER THE REGION. 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIR INTO HE REGION ON SW FLOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 7C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 8-9C BY 0Z WEDNESDAY. A 5H TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NW ONTARIO WILL DROP A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
NW ONTARIO AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND EC ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE...THUS WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DAY 4 AND BEYOND.
MON/TUE...GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK CONTINUING. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
FROM MELTING SNOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST EVEN AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT LATE MONDAY. THUS WILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...PCPN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. INCREASING
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AND
SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND 0C SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 850 MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 50 W AND MID 40S E ON MONDAY WITH THE 50S
COMMON ON TUESDAY.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL TURN NW TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING. GFS DOES BRING 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 0C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT
IN MENTION OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO WARM 850 MB TEMPS UP. SFC LOW SWINGS WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
AREA. ANY LINGERING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPS TO COOL A BIT WED AND THUR BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRI THROUGH SAT...WARMING RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. GFS
SHOWS 85H TEMPS REACHING 13C OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF THE
MODELS...WITH GFS QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND
THUS EARLIER WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ANY CASE...WITH ZONAL
FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY QUICKLY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. WITH MILD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE
HIGH...AREA TO STAY WARM AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AT KCMX. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE CLEARING TREND IS
LOWER AT SAW AS AN INVERSION STRENGTHENS THAT MAY TRAP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE SRLY FLOW INCREASES. SO...TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR
AT KSAW IS UNCERTAIN. AT KIWD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC BASED INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT
KIWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NW WILL LEAD TO S TO SW WINDS OF 15-30KT TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS OVER THE LAKE.
AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER S ON MON AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
NRN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TO AT LEAST 15-25KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN
NE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE S WITH
THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ARRIVAL OF
MOISTER AIR IN THIS FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL
CAUSE SOME FOG. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES
PASSES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WNW AND PROBABLY UP TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME. THE ARRIVAL
OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS LATER ON
WED INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...RJT
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
944 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO
THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. RAP LOW LEVEL
RH FIELDS ARE INDICATING THE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING AND HEADING
EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THIS PROCESS WILL
BE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY FORECASTED WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME. THE LATEST 12 Z KILN SOUNDING
HAD A 1000 - 850 MB THICKNESS OF 1292 M WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S (INCREASING THICKNESSES FORECASTED
THIS AFTERNOON). 850 MB TEMPS ALONE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO RISE QUICKLY. FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT DOWN
HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE
REDUCTIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE LONGEST. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION->
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO SRN
LOWER MI. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND
THEN ERODE THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WAA DEVELOPS.
IN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STAY UP TONIGHT BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NE TO NEAR 40 SW.
GOOD WAA DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH.
IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STAY TO OUR WEST TUESDAY
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NE TO NEAR 50 SW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING RIDGING
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE GULF
WILL BE WIDE OPEN SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THIS AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO PEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN. THUS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
12Z GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF WHEN THIS LIFT BACK NORTH. BUT WHEN IT
DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE INDIANA-OHIO
BORDER. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS IN
AROUND THE HIGH. BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA...HAVE
EXTENDED DURATION OF MVFR BY SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND LOWER CEILINGS DISSIPATE
BY 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS REPLACING LOW CLOUDS. CVG IS FORECAST TO HAVE SOUTH WINDS
AND VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
920 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL BRING A STRING OF DRY...AND INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF
ANY CLEARING. FIRST VISUALS SHOW NWRN PA CLEARING NICELY WITH A
SMALL CHUNK OF THE LOWER SUSQ UNDER A HOLE IN THE CLOUD SHIELD.
SATELLITE LOOP AND HRRR SUGGEST WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION HOWEVER COULD ACT AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO
THIS MIXING OUT PROCESS SO AM NOT GOING TO GO FOR ANY KIND OF
RAPID CLEARING.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO
THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE SLIDING JUST OFF TO OUR SE TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH
MODERATELY STRONG WARMING ALOFT TO BRING THE CHC OF SOME AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG. THE NEGATING FACTOR FOR THIS WILL BE THE
LIKELY BKN LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL STREAM ESE FROM
THE GLAKES REGION.
LOW TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS OVER THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS /BUT
PROBABLY NOT TOO CLOSE TO RECORDS...WHICH ARE IN THE U70S TO L80S
AT KMDT AND KIPT ON THOSE RESPECTIVE DAYS/.
BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS
12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS....THIS WILL PUMP UP GEFS MEAN 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO AROUND 5760M AND ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO THE
LOWER 70F BY WED OVR SOUTHERN PA...AND 65 TO 70 IN MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NRN PENN. MEAN 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MAX FOR
KMDT WED IS 72F WITH THE MAX ENSEMBLE HIGH TEMP OF 75F.
AFTERWARD...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A
QUASI-STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY /STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES TO
THE MISS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/ SE AND THRU THROUGH PA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA
WILL NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WAVES COULD RIPPLE TOWARD PA
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE /WARM/ FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN...WITH PRECIP BRACKETED
BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY WED AND FRI. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ONSET OF PRECIP AND QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS TO BE A SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK AND TEMPS GRADUALLY
COOL BACK DOWN BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...9 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTH. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
MON-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...LOW CIGS/RAIN POSSIBLE NORTHWEST WED NGT.
THU...RESTRICTIONS LKLY WITH RAIN NW 1/2.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
142 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY WEATHER TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED.
A WARM UP WILL START MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE IS JUST OVER THE LAS VEGAS AREA
AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. IN IT/S WAKE THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA
OF STRONGEST PVA. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPED AND
WAVE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...ISSUED
A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN THE FOCUS OF ISSUES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE FROM LA PAZ COUNTY ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...WILL BE LIGHT. HRRR RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH SHOWERS/CONVECTION REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THAT AREA.
FIRST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MONDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSE LOW SOUTH OF NOGALES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES IN...THEN
THOSE SHOWER CHANCES SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A WINDOW DURING TUESDAY THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF ARIZONA SPILLS INTO THE PHOENIX
AREA...PRIMARILY BASED ON VERY MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS
ACTUAL FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK/ABSENT. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO
5000 FEET BUT WITH LITTLE QPF EXPECTED ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY
ISSUES.
MIDWEEK...RIDGE AXIS NOSES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING QUIET
AND WARMING WEATHER. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR A POTENTIAL
SYSTEM IN THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS A BIT
OF A BOWLING BALL UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO ARIZONA BUT THE GFS TIME-
LAGGED ENSEMBLE SHOWS A MUCH WEATHER SYSTEM WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
TREND. LIKEWISE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GEFS AND THE EC
ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS NEAR-
CLIMO POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE PHX AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A
SHORT TIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO REVERT BACK TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
SEEING TODAY. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS AOA 12K FEET TO
BECOME FEW-SCT AROUND 7K FEET THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR
A TIME LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A REMOTE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH IN THE KIWA AND KSDL TAFS. SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE GREATER PHX AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...BUT WITH CIGS REMAINING MAINLY AOA 12K FEET.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG AND GUSTY SFC WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 18-28 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BRIEFLY FALLING AS LOW AS 10-
12 KTS AT KIPL AND 6-8 KTS AT KBLH BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO BKN-OVC CIGS
WITH BASES AROUND 12K FEET DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND FEW-SCT CLOUD LAYERS AS LOW AS 5K FEET MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY...WITH
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE
70S...AND THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX
EAST...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP WITH
MANY OF THE LOWER DESERTS FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY
MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 10
PERCENT ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ020-021-
025-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ020-021-025-026.
CA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ031>033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
953 AM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY TODAY. PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WILL BE
QUITE MODEST. A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LAS VEGAS
AREA LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY JET CUTTING INTO
ARIZONA. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
WHICH CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES WELL. COINCIDENT WITH THE VORT MAX
SOME CONVECTION IS NOTED. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
AND CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE VORT MAX
CLIPS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ACTIVITY
WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THOUGH. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
IMPERIAL COUNTY /SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 15
TO ABOUT 35 MPH AND WE EXPECT THOSE VALUES TO GO HIGHER AND SPREAD
INTO MOST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BLOWING DUST REMAINS POSSIBLE...WHICH WE HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR MESSAGING MATERIALS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WE DID
ADD SOME BLOWING DUST INTO SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY...ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 8 STRETCH NEAR GILA BEND...TO BETTER COLLABORATE WITH THE
NWS TUCSON OFFICE AND BASED ON ENHANCED GUST POTENTIAL PER LATEST
HRRR RUNS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY
GRIDDED FORECAST DATA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DISPLACING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THE JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM IS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA.
THE RIDGE IS CAUSING A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A LOT DIFLUENCE OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS OF THIS WRITING...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE L.A. BASIN AND CONTINUING OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM IS A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A LOT OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OFF AS MUCH AS THEY WOULD OTHERWISE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME VERY WEAK
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EMBEDDED IN THOSE CLOUDS TRACKING ACROSS LA
PAZ...NORTHERN MARICOPA...GILA COUNTY...AND POINTS NORTH. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
WHICH HAS KEPT MIXING GOING. AS A SIDE NOTE...THOSE WINDS HAVE
ADVECTED HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INLAND AND THE BEST QG FORCING TRACKING JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THERE IS ALSO RAIN SHADOWING OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO CONTEND
WITH WHICH WILL PUT A DENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS THE FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS MODEST
TODAY/TONIGHT. SREF DEPICTS A TINY BIT OF CAPE BRUSHING OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MERIT MENTION OF T-STORMS. WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOST NOTICEABLY FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECTS FOR US. WINDS LOOK TO BE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA...ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IN OUR MOST DUST PRONE AREA OF PINAL COUNTY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY BUT UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WILL CAUSE
IT TO DIG SOUTHWARD ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICAL FORCING AFFECTS COASTAL CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND
FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS
TIME SUCH THAT THERE WILL BE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA...BUT NOT GREAT. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH DECREASING CHANCES
EASTWARD...OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE PATTERN OFTEN IS. AN EXCEPTION WOULD
BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. PRECIP AMOUNTS...IF
ANY...WILL BE QUITE MODEST. CAPE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO MEAGER TO
MENTION T-STORMS. POPS TRAIL OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AND END
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME NICE
ADDITIONAL COOLING COMES IN WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
FINALLY DROPPING BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND. A WEAKENING TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS
DEPICTS SOME VERY LIGHT QPF BUT ECMWF AND GEM DO NOT. NAEFS POPS
REMAIN LOW. NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON AT THIS TIME TO MENTION PRECIP
OUTSIDE OF JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL MONUMENT AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE COOLER
TEMPS GOING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR
PHOENIX TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE TRADITIONAL
EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING TO WESTERLY MUCH EARLIER THAN
USUAL (MID TO LATE MORNING) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
GUSTS IN A 20-30KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE THICK CLOUDS ABOVE THE 12K FT LEVEL WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS AOA 15K FEET. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SCT CU DECKS WILL DEVELOP WITH BASES AROUND 7K FEET AND
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL CIGS AT THAT LEVEL. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY ALSO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS MAINLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...IF ANY RAIN OCCURS AT ALL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG AND GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORCE GUSTY WEST WINDS
AT KIPL EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FROPA AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONLY MODERATE. EXPECT STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AT KIPL MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK
GUSTS 35 MPH OR HIGHER...AND SOME BLOWING DUST MAY BE POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH VIS VALUES AT THE TERMINAL SHOULD STAY ABOVE 5SM. KBLH WILL
LIKELY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH DIRECTIONS
FAVORING THE W/SW. GUSTS MAY FALL IN A 30-35KT RANGE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND THE 6K FT
LEVEL MAY ALSO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY...WITH
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE
70S...AND THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX
EAST...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP WITH
MANY OF THE LOWER DESERTS FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND MUCH LESS WIND. BY THURSDAY
MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 10
PERCENT ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY RISE A FEW PERCENT FRIDAY. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY A
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL RISE IN
MINIMUM RH LEVELS. IT WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ020-021-025-026.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/AJ
AVIATION...CB/MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
936 AM PST SUN MAR 6 2016
...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND RENEWED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF BY LATE MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH
BAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 AM PST SUNDAY...BASED OFF OF SATELLITE
AND RADAR DID A FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON TO REDUCED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WERE ALSO REDUCED.
SPC NOW HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MAIN RISK STRONG WINDS. HRRR SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TODAY GREATLY INCREASING AS EVENING
APPROACHES. LINES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INDICATED NEAR OR IN THE
BAY AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. NAM THEN SHOWS SECOND ROUND
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW GOES THROUGH. SMALL
HAIL VERY LIKELY WITH CELLS AS WELL.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM THAT BLASTED
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCED
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
THAT SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UNSTABLE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR AREA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE SUBSIDED AND
THE FLOODING THREAT HAS EASED...FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...SPREADING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
REGION ONCE AGAIN. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM FORECASTING CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG NEAR OUR COAST BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE ONE THAT JUST MOVED
THROUGH...AND SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE LESS
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WITH SATURATED SOILS
AND STREAMS AND CREEKS THAT WON`T HAVE TIME TO FULLY SUBSIDE.
PLUS...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM MEANS WE
COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION BURSTS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH BAY AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
RENEWED FLOODING STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA STARING AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
4 AM PST MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SINKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...A PLUME
OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH WARM ADVECTION
TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THAT MOISTURE PLUME IS THEN FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SAGGING GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD SEE SOME VERY LARGE RAIN TOTALS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE SOUTH.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:36 AM PST SUNDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONF IS LOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. PRECIP WILL
RETURN AFTER 00Z FOR KSTS AND 03-06Z FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS. A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
WITH LOWERED VSBY/CIGS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE TSTORM CHC AT TERMINAL LOCATIONS...BUT CONF IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OVERALL CONF IS MODERATE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR COND WITH CIGS IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WITH A
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OR GREATER AFTER 23Z. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUSTY WINDS 23-09Z TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS
3-4K FT RANGE. CIGS AND PRECIP RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 04:17 AM PST SUNDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 11
TO 13 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14 SEC. WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS STILL EXPECT TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MOST COASTAL LOCATION REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SPOT NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH SURF WARNING. SINCE IT IS
BORDERLINE...WILL LEAVE THE ADV AS IS FOR NOW. EITHER
WAY...CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME RATHER ROUGH LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:34 AM PST SUNDAY...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WESTERLY SWELLS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PEAKING ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...ALL AREAS 4 PM TO 4 AM
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AREAS
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 PM
GLW...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
930 AM PST SUN MAR 6 2016
...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND RENEWED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF BY LATE MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH
BAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 AM PST SUNDAY...BASED OFF OF SATELLITE
AND RADAR DID A FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON TO REDUCED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WERE ALSO REDUCED.
SPC NOW HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MAIN RISK STRONG WINDS. HRRR SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TODAY GREATLY INCREASING AS EVENING
APPROACHES. LINES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INDICATED NEAR OR IN THE
BAY AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. NAM THEN SHOWS SECOND ROUND
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW GOES THROUGH. SMALL
HAIL VERY LIKELY WITH CELLS AS WELL.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM THAT BLASTED
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCED
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
THAT SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UNSTABLE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR AREA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE SUBSIDED AND
THE FLOODING THREAT HAS EASED...FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...SPREADING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
REGION ONCE AGAIN. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM FORECASTING CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG NEAR OUR COAST BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE ONE THAT JUST MOVED
THROUGH...AND SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE LESS
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WITH SATURATED SOILS
AND STREAMS AND CREEKS THAT WON`T HAVE TIME TO FULLY SUBSIDE.
PLUS...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM MEANS WE
COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION BURSTS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH BAY AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
RENEWED FLOODING STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA STARING AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
4 AM PST MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SINKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...A PLUME
OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH WARM ADVECTION
TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THAT MOISTURE PLUME IS THEN FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SAGGING GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD SEE SOME VERY LARGE RAIN TOTALS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE SOUTH.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PST SUNDAY...STORM SYSTEM PUSHED
THROUGH EARLIER TONIGHT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY. THERE IS A CHC FOR A
PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONF IS LOW. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS INCREASE. PRECIP WILL RETURN AFTER 00Z FOR KSTS AND 03-06Z
FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSS EARLY MONDAY WITH LOWERED VSBY/CIGS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS RATHER IMPRESSIVE TSTORM CHC AT TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...BUT CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. OVERALL CONF IS MODERATE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR COND WITH CIGS IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WITH A
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUST 35 KT OR GREATER AFTER 23Z. AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUSTY WINDS 23-09Z TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 3-4K FT
RANGE. SAME AS UP NORTH...CIGS AND PRECIP RETURN LATER TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 04:17 AM PST SUNDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS 11
TO 13 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 13/14 SEC. WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS STILL EXPECT TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MOST COASTAL LOCATION REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SPOT NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH SURF WARNING. SINCE IT IS
BORDERLINE...WILL LEAVE THE ADV AS IS FOR NOW. EITHER
WAY...CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME RATHER ROUGH LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PST SUNDAY...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WESTERLY SWELLS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PEAKING ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...ALL AREAS 4 PM TO 4 AM
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AREAS
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ALL AREAS 6 PM TO 4 AM
SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 PM
GLW...SF BAY FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1040 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Mostly sunny skies prevail across central and southeast Illinois
this morning, with 16z/10am temperatures mainly in the lower to
middle 40s. As high pressure continues to shift off to the east,
increasing southerly winds will be noted as the day goes on. Winds
are already gusting to between 20 and 25 mph and may gust to
around 30 mph this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens.
High clouds will also be on the increase from the west, with skies
becoming partly to mostly cloudy toward sunset. Thanks to the
southerly winds and a good amount of sunshine, afternoon high
temperatures will climb well into the 50s. Current forecast has a
good handle on the situation, so other than a quick update to
remove morning fog wording across the SE, no major changes are
anticipated at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
The 08z/2am surface analysis shows the surface ridge axis extending
from N to S across far eastern IL, with a warm frontal boundary
developing along the Missouri River into the northern Plains. Low
clouds are lingering under the surface ridge in eastern Illinois,
but they should dissipate shortly before sunrise.
As the surface high departs farther to the east today, southerly
winds will develop. Increasing pressure gradient and mixing of
strong mid level winds to the surface will help produce wind gusts
in the 25 to 30 mph range at times this afternoon. The strengthening
southerly flow will also bring the warm frontal clouds into central
Illinois, creating mostly cloudy conditions before the end of the
day. Despite the limited afternoon sunshine, warm advection breezes
will help high temps climb 6 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Highs will range from around 50 toward Danville, to near 60 degrees
around Jacksonville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Upper pattern currently in transition to a warmer and wetter
regime, allowing highs in the 60s much of the week past today.
One trough was approaching the East Coast early this morning, with
another sharpening trough just off the West Coast. This latter one
will continue to dig and close off a low over southern California by
Monday evening, with the upper low slowly drifting over northern and
central Mexico until late week. This track will produce an
impressive surge of moisture in a couple days, coming up from near
the Yucatan Peninsula into Louisiana. GFS progs indicate PWAT values
approaching 1.4-1.5 inches advecting into southeast Illinois by
Wednesday, close to maximum climatological values for this time of
year.
Have made some adjustments to the PoP`s for tonight, focusing more
on the period west of I-55 after midnight as forecast soundings are
pretty dry below 600 mb through the evening. This area of showers
will increase to our west in the evening as the low level jet ramps
up, then spread northeast. Most of the evening model guidance dries
out the area by Monday afternoon, with a period of dry conditions
through the evening. PoP`s ramp up again after midnight Monday night
across the western CWA as the nocturnal jet increases again,
associated with a surface low tracking across Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota.
Main period of concern for heavy rains will be Tuesday evening
through Wednesday night. The surface low should be near or just
north of Lake Superior by late Tuesday evening, with a cold front
extending southwest toward a low over southeast Oklahoma. First
surge of heavier precipitation will ride northeast along the
boundary, which will be in the general vicinity of the Illinois
River around midday Wednesday. The GFS is a tad faster than the
ECMWF in pushing this boundary across most of the forecast area by
late Wednesday evening, but still a fair amount of uncertainty in
how much and how long it hangs up over the area. Have spread the
categorical PoP`s (around 80%) as far northwest as the Illinois
River Tuesday night, and continue to keep them going east of I-55
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Potential exists for a few inches of
rain south of the boundary with the rich moisture feed. The
precipitation will be cutting off from the west Thursday morning as
an upper wave approaches.
Significant model differences in the longer range, as the upper low
over Mexico weakens and lifts northeast. The ECMWF shears it out
faster (over southern Texas), allowing some upper ridging which
keeps the first part of the weekend dry. The GFS gets the low`s
remnants all the way into southeast Illinois by late Sunday, with
the earlier frontal boundary being pushed back northward late this
week and featuring much more precipitation along it. Blended model
guidance initialization is drawing in more of the GFS scenario
than desired, so have backed off on some of the PoP`s by about
10-15% and removed the likely PoP`s on Saturday for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016
Clouds have cleared from the TAF sites early this morning.
Residual boundary layer moisture near CMI has allowed MVFR fog to
develop. We can`t rule out a brief spike down to IFR or LIFR fog
at CMI. The latest HRRR forecast shows better chances of dense
fog farther to the southeast of CMI, so will keep MVFR prevailing
until the fog dissipates by 14z. The remainder of today will
feature increasing mid and high clouds ahead of a developing warm
front. Precipitation will hold off until later tonight, as the
lower levels saturate with time. A few light showers will be
mainly confined to areas along and west of I-55. Therefore, VCSH
was included after 10z tonight for BMI, SPI, and PIA. VFR
conditions should prevail through 12z tomorrow morn, for the most
part.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE BENEFITS BEFALLING THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL CLEARED ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN AND HIGH ONES DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY MIXED OUT AND DROPPED A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY ALL BUILD A MODERATE RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES MUCH STRONGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL THEN SERVE TO KEEP ANY ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE...INITIALLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS...AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS DIFFERENCE MAY APPROACH 15 DEGREES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TOUCH OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE A VERY NICE DAY AS MORNING LOWS...PARTICULARLY CHILLY IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS...GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE
60S DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. ALSO ANTICIPATE A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BEING AS EXTREME.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DISTINCTION. AS FOR POP...BASICALLY ZEROED THEM OUT...IN LINE WITH
ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SEE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW WITH RAIN
CHANCES. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING FORWARD
PROGRESS AGAINST THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA...THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE DELAYED A BIT
MORE...WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE MOVEMENT AND
DEFINING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT BECOME A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHEARS IT OUT...AND THEN MOVES THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE THE FRONT BARELY
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. IN OTHER WORDS...SPRING WILL BE VISITING THE REGION
EARLY STARTING THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
HIGH PRESSURE HAS WON OUT AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED THROUGH MOST OF
EAST KENTUCKY. JUST A FEW MVFR CLOUD PATCHES REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT SKC CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY. THE SKIES WILL STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS DRIFTING BY FROM THE WEST. WILL LEAVE OUT FOG POTENTIAL FOR
THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS COULD SEE A
TOUCH OF IT BEFORE DAWN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAILS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1204 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIM NORTHERN MAIN ON MONDAY...BUT THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. IT COULD SET OFF SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO SPEED UP CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE N
AND E ZONES...AND ALSO DEAL WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER SRN COASTAL
ZONES DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. ALSO SOME
WEAK ECHOES ON THE RADAR...BUT GIVEN TD DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25F HARD
TO SEE ANYTHING THIS LIGHT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
930 AM...LOOKS LIKE UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CWA
ATTM...AND THERE IS ONLY CLEARING BEHIND IT...SO HAVE IMPROVED SKY
CONDS THRU THE REST OF TODAY. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE SOME WEAK MID LVL
WAA MOVING A FEW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 30-40F RANGE FROM N TO S.
7 AM UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE. HRRR AND OTHERS NOT MODELING THIS WELL SO WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AND MAKE SURE THIS STAYS OFFSHORE WHICH SHOULD BE FINE IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF CALM WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAY
TRY AND DEVELOP... SO THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF OF A STRAY
SPRINKLE REACHING THE SHORE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...
AND WINDS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER FROM THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTH STREAM WILL BRUSH US
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR TWO OR SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WE WILL SEE READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
AREAS REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MORNING SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH
AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING NORTHERN
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PARTIAL
CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR TWO. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT
MODELS NOW SLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING IT WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES.
EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH READINGS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...930 AM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS THE SWELL BREAKS DOWN OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR MON IN STRONG SW FLOW.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/HANES
SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1239 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PUSHING ONSHORE
OVER THE W COAST. THIS IS FORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS WHICH IN TURN IS FORCING THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EASTWARD.
THUS...THE LONG ADVERTISED WARM UP IS GETTING UNDERWAY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WHICH FAILED TO BREAK UP ACROSS WI AND
A GOOD PART OF UPPER MI YESTERDAY ARE STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF
THE SRN AND ERN FCST AREA. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRES ARE PREVENTING THESE LOW CLOUDS FROM SPREADING
INTO THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W AND NCNTRL. OTHERWISE...WAA
PATTERN SHIFTING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY BTWN HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE E COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50+KT WINDS 2-3KFT OFF THE GROUND.
FORTUNATELY...MIXED LAYER WILL NOT BUILD HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO 30-35MPH GUSTS AT
TIMES... ESPECIALLY NCNTRL AND E. EXPECT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE S AND E TO EXIT TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE A
SLOW PROCESS OVER THE E AS TRAJECTORIES INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD
UPSTREAM OF THAT AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE OVER
THE W...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THAT AREA.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF CHILLY LAKE MI...TEMPS OVER THE E
WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S TODAY. FINALLY...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE E...REACHING NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. COMBINED WITH ONGOING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PCPN WILL
LIKELY BREAK OUT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE COLUMN HAS A BETTER
CHC OF SATURATING DUE TO BEING DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR
MASS. FARTHER S...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIBBON OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 200-300J/KG SURGING NE INTO THE
FAR SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. 06Z
NAM IS EVEN HIGHER...SHOWING 1-3KM MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 500-700J/KG
BRUSHING THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MI. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO LUCE COUNTY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
IS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IF ANY PCPN DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
LATER TONIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING AT LEAST NW
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY SNOWMELT...MAY SEE PATCHY
-DZ DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BEGINNING FIRST OVER THE KEWEENAW.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...FOG MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS HOLDING OVER THE REGION. 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIR INTO HE REGION ON SW FLOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 7C
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 8-9C BY 0Z WEDNESDAY. A 5H TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NW ONTARIO WILL DROP A WEAK COOL FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
NW ONTARIO AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND EC ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE...THUS WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DAY 4 AND BEYOND.
MON/TUE...GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK CONTINUING. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
FROM MELTING SNOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST EVEN AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT LATE MONDAY. THUS WILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...PCPN AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. INCREASING
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AND
SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND 0C SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 850 MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 50 W AND MID 40S E ON MONDAY WITH THE 50S
COMMON ON TUESDAY.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL TURN NW TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING. GFS DOES BRING 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 0C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT
IN MENTION OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO WARM 850 MB TEMPS UP. SFC LOW SWINGS WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
AREA. ANY LINGERING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPS TO COOL A BIT WED AND THUR BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRI THROUGH SAT...WARMING RETURNS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. GFS
SHOWS 85H TEMPS REACHING 13C OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF THE
MODELS...WITH GFS QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND
THUS EARLIER WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ANY CASE...WITH ZONAL
FLOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY QUICKLY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. WITH MILD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE
HIGH...AREA TO STAY WARM AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
NOT A BORING WEATHER PATTERN FOR AVIATION PURPOSES. WILL START OUT
WITH BREEZY S-SW WINDS TODAY...THEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. LOOK
FOR THE PRECIP/FG TO EXIT SE MONDAY MORNING...BUT LIFR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NW WILL LEAD TO S TO SW WINDS OF 15-30KT TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT
UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS OVER THE LAKE.
AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER S ON MON AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
NRN ONTARIO WHILE LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE WRN PLAINS...E TO NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TO AT LEAST 15-25KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN
NE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE S WITH
THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ARRIVAL OF
MOISTER AIR IN THIS FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL
CAUSE SOME FOG. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES
PASSES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WNW AND PROBABLY UP TO 20-25KT FOR A TIME. THE ARRIVAL
OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL THEN LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS LATER ON
WED INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...RJT
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
239 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
SHORT TERM HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST WORKING INTO PARK COUNTY.
THE 19Z HRRR HAS THE FRONT REACHING BILLINGS AROUND 10 PM AND IT
IS NOT DEVELOPING MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT EITHER. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY IS GOING SOUTH AS THE WAVE IS SPLITTING.
THIS IS LEAVING SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING.
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE
DEPARTS THE ONLY REMAINING CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM IS
IN THE WESTERN ZONES AS UNSETTLED ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANCE OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DISORGANIZED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE
PRE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEAK WAVES WILL PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...
PRIMARILY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF GUSTS 35-40KTS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...PARTICULARLY AT KBIL AND KSHR. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
WINDS PICKING UP AT KLVM AND THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE DAY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/055 031/053 031/056 038/067 043/065 039/062 036/060
51/B 11/B 22/W 00/N 01/B 12/W 21/B
LVM 031/050 028/047 029/052 038/063 042/063 038/059 034/055
81/B 12/W 22/W 21/N 22/W 23/W 22/W
HDN 040/056 029/056 029/060 032/070 038/067 035/065 030/062
62/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 21/B
MLS 040/056 030/054 030/058 032/069 037/066 036/062 032/059
42/W 11/U 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/U
4BQ 039/054 030/053 028/058 030/069 037/069 038/066 032/060
32/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 21/U
BHK 040/053 029/049 028/057 029/068 034/067 034/061 030/056
22/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/U
SHR 037/050 028/051 026/055 029/068 035/068 035/066 031/059
54/W 11/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AND REMAINED ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THAN
MODELS INDICATE...BUT SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SREF AND HRRR RUNS HINT AT SOME FOG IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANY SATURATION IS VERY SHALLOW AND NOT WIDESPREAD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 32-35...WITH SOME SPOTS
AROUND 30 POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE DIGS
THROUGH THE WESTERN US AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REPOSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUIDANCE LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN FORECAST H10-H85 THICKNESSES OF 1325-1330M
MONDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AS A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST
STATES. HIGHS 62-67.
MILDER LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE
POTENTIAL STILL FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING OVER HEAD...
40-43
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ENCAMPS ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. VERY WARM WEEK AHEAD AS
THICKNESS VALUES RISE INTO THE 1370S AND POSSIBLY 1380S LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH
THE 60S FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BREAK DOWN WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND INFLUENCE THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MOVES HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF FOR ANOTHER FULL DAY...NOT BRINING IN
RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. IF THE
ECMWF WORKS OUT...THEN SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE 70S
BUT IF THE GFS WORKS OUT IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THE 70 MARK. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR DETAILS TO EMERGE BUT AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY
TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
SCT TO BKN STRATOCU...MOSTLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FT...HAVE LEAD TO
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING. WILL BEGIN
TO REPOSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT..LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KRDU/KRWI/KFAY. A 5-10KT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL THEN DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE
INCREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY MORNING (09-12Z) STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AND REMAINED ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THAN
MODELS INDICATE...BUT SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SREF AND HRRR RUNS HINT AT SOME FOG IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANY SATURATION IS VERY SHALLOW AND NOT WIDESPREAD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 32-35...WITH SOME SPOTS
AROUND 30 POSSIBLE IN MORE RURAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE DIGS
THROUGH THE WESTERN US AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REPOSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUIDANCE LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN FORECAST H10-H85 THICKNESSES OF 1325-1330M
MONDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AS A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST
STATES. HIGHS 62-67.
MILDER LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE
POTENTIAL STILL FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING OVER HEAD...
40-43
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
FOR THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE SOME 30 TO 50 METERS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S... WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED TO
BE THURSDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AREAWIDE. LOWS TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AS
WELL... GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHWARD PUSH THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER... THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY... BEFORE WASHING OUT. THUS... WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD... BUT SHOW A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREE GRADIENT FROM NE
TO S/SW. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 70
NE TO THE UPPER 70S S. WITH REGARD TO ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN SOME AS THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THUS...
WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO SIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCES ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY REINS ON SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH THE THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW NEXT WEEK TO OUR
WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY... HOLDING ANY PRECIP TO OUR WEST NOW. HOWEVER... UNTIL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY... WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S... AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
SCT TO BKN STRATOCU...MOSTLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FT...HAVE LEAD TO
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW
A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING. WILL BEGIN
TO REPOSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT..LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KRDU/KRWI/KFAY. A 5-10KT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL THEN DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE
INCREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY MORNING (09-12Z) STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1228 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO
THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. RAP LOW LEVEL
RH FIELDS ARE INDICATING THE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING AND HEADING
EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THIS PROCESS WILL
BE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY FORECASTED WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME. THE LATEST 12 Z KILN SOUNDING
HAD A 1000 - 850 MB THICKNESS OF 1292 M WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S (INCREASING THICKNESSES FORECASTED
THIS AFTERNOON). 850 MB TEMPS ALONE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO RISE QUICKLY. FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT DOWN
HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE
REDUCTIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE LONGEST. NEW ZONES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION->
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO SRN
LOWER MI. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND
THEN ERODE THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WAA DEVELOPS.
IN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STAY UP TONIGHT BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NE TO NEAR 40 SW.
GOOD WAA DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH.
IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STAY TO OUR WEST TUESDAY
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NE TO NEAR 50 SW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING RIDGING
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE GULF
WILL BE WIDE OPEN SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THIS AS WELL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO PEAK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN. THUS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
12Z GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF WHEN THIS LIFT BACK NORTH. BUT WHEN IT
DOES...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS NOW JUST CLEARED THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES AND
IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. KILN AND KDAY
WILL LIKELY GO VFR WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. COLUMBUS TAF SITES
PROBABLY HAVE UNTIL AROUND 22 Z BEFORE THEY SCATTER OUT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. MONDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND WAA MIXING WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
INCLUDED GUSTS AS PREVAILING BUT A COUPLE OF GUSTS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT.
OUTLOOK...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD SPREADING EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE. IT HAS BEEN A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S...THOUGH THE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE PREVENTING RECORD HIGHS. A FEW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RH VALUES HOVERING AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 25 MPH THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND PRONE AREAS WERE NOT A PROBLEM TODAY WITH CLOUDS
INHIBITING LOW-LEVEL MIXING.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
QUICKLY ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN UPSTREAM...SO BELIEVE THE HRRR SOLUTION WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. ADDED SOME LOW
END POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT WE
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. TOMORROW MAY
BE QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD YIELD A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF I25 WITH SBCAPES AROUND 250-500
J/KG. WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING...ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS IN
THOSE AREAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES. SNOW IS LIKELY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES THRU
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. A SOLID 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. CONSIDERED AN ADZY
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT EXPECT IMPACTS TO BE LOW OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WE
COULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND EXCELLENT H7 FRONTOGENESIS. WITH REGARD TO QPF...THE GFS AND ECM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH ALONG/EAST OF I25. NAM IS
AN OUTLIER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. TEND
TO FAVOR WESTERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IS CHALLENGING WITH THE VERY WARM
PRE-FRONTAL AIR. GFS/NAM WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGESTS A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW IN CHEYENNE BY MID EVENING...THE FAR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. ELEVATIONS AT
OR BELOW 4500 FEET MAY SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. GENERALLY EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
ONE INCH...BUT COULD SEE A LOT MORE IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. DECREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SPLIT PATTERN ALOFT
AT MID-WEEK WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DOMINATING
THE CWA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ON WED
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 50S. NOT
MUCH CHANGE FOR THURS AND FRI WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING
AS A MEAN RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS & UPPER
MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE
INCREASING WITH 700MB WINDS 40-45 KT THURS. WINDS DECREASE A BIT
FRI. THE PROLONGED DRY PATTERN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER THREAT MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. CHANGES OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE
MAIN ENERGY PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH
A MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS LOWERING WHILE
SPREADING WEST TO EAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-15 KT FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GUSTS OF 25-35 KT
WILL ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO CARBON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY AT RAWLINS AFTER
15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2016
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 10-20 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEYOND TODAY...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LIKELY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH