Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/04/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
238 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN AND DEVELOPING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE NW.
THIS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE TOO
SUBSTANTIAL OF A COOL DOWN WITH THIS AIR MASS...BASICALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES AT BEST.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SFC BASED LIFT WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO GREATER POPS THAN IS PRESENT IN THE
EXISTING FORECAST. SHORTER TERM HRRR AND THE NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP IN GREATER
COVERAGE THAN IS COVERED IN THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO I AM
BOOSTING POPS UP QUITE A BIT OVER THE EXISTING FORECAST.
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. FOR THIS
REASON I SCALED BACK MODEL BASED QPF VALUES SOMEWHAT.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOK GOOD. RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH QUITE A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER STRONG JET. ON THE DOWNSIDE THE OVERALL
PARCEL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
LIMITATIONS WILL BE A FACTOR.
FOR NOW I AM WORDING THE WEATHER GRIDS AS SHOWERS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER IF OVERNIGHT TRENDS
START TO SHOW MORE LIGHTNING...THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS MORE PROMINENTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DURING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT BUT IT WILL STALL OUT AND
BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AS IT LIFTS BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE STATE AS A WARM FRONT.
STARTING SUNDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX REGION AS A VERY DEEP TROUGH SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. EACH OF THESE IMPULSES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER MONDAY EVENING...AND FINALLY A STRONGER ONE ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS
UP...WITH MODELS FORECASTING DEWPOINTS 60-65F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT IS STILL THE
DAY 7 FORECAST PERIOD WHICH IS TO SAY THERE IS A LOT OF TIME FOR
THIS TO CHANGE. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 45 61 38 58 / 70 50 0 0
CAMDEN AR 52 71 41 67 / 50 50 0 0
HARRISON AR 43 58 34 61 / 50 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 67 40 64 / 70 30 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 65 40 62 / 70 40 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 51 67 42 62 / 60 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 66 38 65 / 60 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 45 59 35 60 / 60 30 0 0
NEWPORT AR 43 61 38 56 / 60 70 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 46 64 40 61 / 50 40 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 46 65 37 63 / 80 30 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 62 38 59 / 70 70 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 63 39 59 / 60 60 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
847 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...STRONG CONVECTION...CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NOT AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS...BUT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT WILL
BE QUITE DRY. STILL...THE 18Z GFS SHOWS ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
(NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25 INCHES) TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS A
LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THERE TOO...SO WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT 20-
30 PERCENT POPS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST DUE TO
INCREASING WIND PROFILE SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LOW...EVEN WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
STABLE LATE NIGHT ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE RECENT HRRR HAS BEEN
HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
FRI...BAND OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT IN THE MORNING WILL GET
SCOURED OUT BY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS. BREEZY NW
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 80S
OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 06Z THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IFR IS MOST LIKELY KMCO-
KTIX NORTH WHERE THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. ON FRI...VFR CONDS WILL RETURN TO MCO/SFB/DAB BY 14Z AND
TO FPR/SUA BY 18Z. BREEZY NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GUST
OCCASIONALLY NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THEN NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...HENCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE VOLUSIA
OFFSHORE WATERS LOOKS GOOD...ALONG WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR
ALL OF THE BREVARD COASTAL WATERS TOO.
FRI...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT THEN NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THESE NORTH WINDS COULD REACH TO 20
KNOTS...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE GULFSTREAM MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. ELSEWHERE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
FORECASTS/AVIATION...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Water vapor loop indicating a weak shortwave tracking southeast
across east central IL this evening coupled with a surface
boundarystretching from east central Indiana southwest thru
southern IL has brought an area of rain and snow across the
forecast area early this evening. Radar returns and surface
observations continue to point towards a rapid decrease in precip
across east central and southeast Illinois over the next couple of
hours. High pressure is then forecast to drift into the region
Friday morning with a gradual clearing trend working its way into
the forecast area. Will have to keep an eye on the clouds to our
north as satellite data and upstream surface observations
indicating some breaks developing and if that were to occur before
sunrise, we may see some fog develop in the areas that do clear.
However, forecast soundings are still not very optimistic on that
happening until just after sunrise Friday.
Have already sent out an update to address the band of rain and
snow in eastern Illinois but with some additional adjustments made
to the precip trends in the east and southeast, will send out
another update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
19z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1010mb low over Arkansas, with a
trough axis extending northward into central Illinois. Light rain
continues to fall in the vicinity of the trough, but has now pushed
mainly east of the Illinois River. This feature is progged to be
located along the I-57 corridor by 00z, so am expecting some light
precip to linger across the E/SE CWA into the evening hours. As
winds become northerly on the back side of the trough, the
atmosphere will cool sufficiently to support a light rain/snow mix.
Based on latest trends and HRRR forecast, have included low chance
PoPs along/east of a Bloomington to Flora line this evening. Will
mention rain or snow north of the I-70 corridor: however, no snow
accumulation is expected. Once the trough pushes off to the east,
cloudy and cool conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
night with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s and lower
30s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
High pressure will move quickly across the state Friday with
partly sunny skies for the late morning and early afternoon and
slightly milder temperatures. Another storm system passing across
Wisconsin Friday night, with a trailing cold front and shortwave
passing through central IL will increase mid and high clouds and
southerly winds late in the day Friday, and bring at least a slight
chance for precipitation or drizzle overnight. There is some
question about precipitation type as temperatures will cool off to
become somewhat marginal for snow late in the night, however
precipitation should be mainly rain throughout central IL, with
perhaps a brief change to a mix of snow and rain toward the end of
precipitation Saturday morning. Even with temperatures cooling close
to freezing late in the night, moisture depth may drop off too
dramatically for anything more than liquid drizzle to form at that
point.
A trend toward warmer temperatures is then in store for Saturday
through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge shifts eastward to the
central and eastern U.S. Highs on Saturday range from 45 in
Galesburg to 55 in Lawrenceville...and are expected to increase to
the mid and upper 60s by Tuesday. Meanwhile, lows Saturday night are
expected to cool to a few degrees below freezing, but should trend
upward to the low 50s by Monday night.
A series of small waves ejecting out of a trough over the
western states will bring periodic chances for showers and some
thunderstorms through central and southeast IL for much of the
upcoming work week. Temperatures should remain mild, with highs in
the 50s or 60s through midweek, and lows generally 40s or low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
LIFR/IFR cigs to gradually improve to MVFR cigs late this evening
as the storm system that brought the light rain and snow to the
area shifts away from central Illinois. After that, timing of the
clearing from north to south the next forecast challenge late
tonight into Friday morning as weak high pressure drifts across
the region. Last few runs of the Rapid Refresh model suggests some
clearing taking place after midnight across the north but forecast
soundings a bit more pessimistic thru 12z, before we see some
improvement during the morning hours. Will side with the sounding
forecasts and keep the IFR cigs going until after 04z, especially
at BMI and CMI, with MVFR ceilings thru 12z most areas before
cigs lift during the morning with mainly VFR conditions expected
in all areas after 16z. Northerly winds will prevail tonight with
speeds of 10 to 15 kts and then become light and variable for
Friday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
532 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
19z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1010mb low over Arkansas, with a
trough axis extending northward into central Illinois. Light rain
continues to fall in the vicinity of the trough, but has now pushed
mainly east of the Illinois River. This feature is progged to be
located along the I-57 corridor by 00z, so am expecting some light
precip to linger across the E/SE CWA into the evening hours. As
winds become northerly on the back side of the trough, the
atmosphere will cool sufficiently to support a light rain/snow mix.
Based on latest trends and HRRR forecast, have included low chance
PoPs along/east of a Bloomington to Flora line this evening. Will
mention rain or snow north of the I-70 corridor: however, no snow
accumulation is expected. Once the trough pushes off to the east,
cloudy and cool conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
night with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s and lower
30s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
High pressure will move quickly across the state Friday with
partly sunny skies for the late morning and early afternoon and
slightly milder temperatures. Another storm system passing across
Wisconsin Friday night, with a trailing cold front and shortwave
passing through central IL will increase mid and high clouds and
southerly winds late in the day Friday, and bring at least a slight
chance for precipitation or drizzle overnight. There is some
question about precipitation type as temperatures will cool off to
become somewhat marginal for snow late in the night, however
precipitation should be mainly rain throughout central IL, with
perhaps a brief change to a mix of snow and rain toward the end of
precipitation Saturday morning. Even with temperatures cooling close
to freezing late in the night, moisture depth may drop off too
dramatically for anything more than liquid drizzle to form at that
point.
A trend toward warmer temperatures is then in store for Saturday
through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge shifts eastward to the
central and eastern U.S. Highs on Saturday range from 45 in
Galesburg to 55 in Lawrenceville...and are expected to increase to
the mid and upper 60s by Tuesday. Meanwhile, lows Saturday night are
expected to cool to a few degrees below freezing, but should trend
upward to the low 50s by Monday night.
A series of small waves ejecting out of a trough over the
western states will bring periodic chances for showers and some
thunderstorms through central and southeast IL for much of the
upcoming work week. Temperatures should remain mild, with highs in
the 50s or 60s through midweek, and lows generally 40s or low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
LIFR/IFR cigs to gradually improve to MVFR cigs late this evening
as the storm system that brought the light rain and snow to the
area shifts away from central Illinois. After that, timing of the
clearing from north to south the next forecast challenge late
tonight into Friday morning as weak high pressure drifts across
the region. Last few runs of the Rapid Refresh model suggests some
clearing taking place after midnight across the north but forecast
soundings a bit more pessimistic thru 12z, before we see some
improvement during the morning hours. Will side with the sounding
forecasts and keep the IFR cigs going until after 04z, especially
at BMI and CMI, with MVFR ceilings thru 12z most areas before
cigs lift during the morning with mainly VFR conditions expected
in all areas after 16z. Northerly winds will prevail tonight with
speeds of 10 to 15 kts and then become light and variable for
Friday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SO...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE REPORTING
SNOW...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS ARE STILL RECEIVING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER FRI 09Z. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW IS HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BASED THIS
FORCING WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. AS WARMER AIR HAS SLOWLY WORKED
ITS WAY NORTH...WENT RAIN/SNOW NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING MOST AREAS.
AFTER SUNSET SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...SO WENT A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION
THERE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH.
MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME FRIDAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PART OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS BOTH SHOWING
DECENT FORCING...WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH AND LOWER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ONCE AGAIN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WILL GO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTHWEST HALF AND SNOW NORTHEAST FOR NOW. KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO JUST A FEW TENTHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. /GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG THOUGH WITH ITS FORCING
COMPARED TO OTHERS AND IS SHOWING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THAT
HIGH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING SATURDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING DECREASES DURING THE DAY SO POPS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE USED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN DIFFERENT FORECAST METHODS INTO
TUESDAY. INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE POWERFUL SYSTEMS
RELATIVELY EASY TO PREDICT.
AS THE WEEK DRAWS ON THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BECOME MORE
DISTINCT. AT THE SAME TIME THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITHIN THE GFS PARENT
MODEL GROWS. THE DIFFERENCES ARENT HUGE BUT INVOLVE FEATURES WHOSE
PRECISE POSITION WILL BE IMPORTANT. A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER EXCEPT
PERHAPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW AT BMG TO START OFF. AFTER
THAT...LAMP MOS ALSO SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR 12Z-
14Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR 16Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
22Z-23Z AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1001 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SO...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE REPORTING
SNOW...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS ARE STILL RECEIVING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER FRI 09Z. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW IS HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BASED THIS
FORCING WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. AS WARMER AIR HAS SLOWLY WORKED
ITS WAY NORTH...WENT RAIN/SNOW NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING MOST AREAS.
AFTER SUNSET SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...SO WENT A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION
THERE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH.
MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME FRIDAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PART OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS BOTH SHOWING
DECENT FORCING...WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH AND LOWER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ONCE AGAIN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WILL GO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTHWEST HALF AND SNOW NORTHEAST FOR NOW. KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO JUST A FEW TENTHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. /GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG THOUGH WITH ITS FORCING
COMPARED TO OTHERS AND IS SHOWING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THAT
HIGH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING SATURDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING DECREASES DURING THE DAY SO POPS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE USED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN DIFFERENT FORECAST METHODS INTO
TUESDAY. INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE POWERFUL SYSTEMS
RELATIVELY EASY TO PREDICT.
AS THE WEEK DRAWS ON THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BECOME MORE
DISTINCT. AT THE SAME TIME THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITHIN THE GFS PARENT
MODEL GROWS. THE DIFFERENCES ARENT HUGE BUT INVOLVE FEATURES WHOSE
PRECISE POSITION WILL BE IMPORTANT. A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RADAR AND OBS SUGGEST A 2 OR 3 HOUR WINDOW OF IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN BY 03Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST IND AND LAF WILL SEE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEAR 06Z. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER
01Z. OTHERWISE...PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT BMG AND HUF.
LAMP MOS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR BY 03Z
OR EARLIER BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR TOWARD 12Z AND VFR AFTER 16Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
SNOW IS HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BASED THIS
FORCING WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. AS WARMER AIR HAS SLOWLY WORKED
ITS WAY NORTH...WENT RAIN/SNOW NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING MOST AREAS.
AFTER SUNSET SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...SO WENT A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION
THERE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH.
MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME FRIDAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PART OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS BOTH SHOWING
DECENT FORCING...WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH AND LOWER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ONCE AGAIN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WILL GO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTHWEST HALF AND SNOW NORTHEAST FOR NOW. KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO JUST A FEW TENTHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. /GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG THOUGH WITH ITS FORCING
COMPARED TO OTHERS AND IS SHOWING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THAT
HIGH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING SATURDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING DECREASES DURING THE DAY SO POPS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE USED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN DIFFERENT FORECAST METHODS INTO
TUESDAY. INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE POWERFUL SYSTEMS
RELATIVELY EASY TO PREDICT.
AS THE WEEK DRAWS ON THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BECOME MORE
DISTINCT. AT THE SAME TIME THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITHIN THE GFS PARENT
MODEL GROWS. THE DIFFERENCES ARENT HUGE BUT INVOLVE FEATURES WHOSE
PRECISE POSITION WILL BE IMPORTANT. A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RADAR AND OBS SUGGEST A 2 OR 3 HOUR WINDOW OF IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN BY 03Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST IND AND LAF WILL SEE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEAR 06Z. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER
01Z. OTHERWISE...PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT BMG AND HUF.
LAMP MOS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR BY 03Z
OR EARLIER BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR TOWARD 12Z AND VFR AFTER 16Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
533 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...BUT
WITH A FEW BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY PBL.
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
FROPA ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA LATE
IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ADVECT WARM/DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. RELATIVELY DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO
THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR EMPORIA TO Manhattan TO MARYSVILLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
SAT-SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT SPEEDS MAY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
RESULTING IN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE COLUMN IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE
SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S. THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
EXIST. UNCERTAINTY GROWS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER
ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A FEW
MORE SUBTLE WAVES LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 533 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
With shortwave ridging moving out into the plains with little
forcing and a relatively dry airmass, VFR conditions are forecast
to persist. The one thing to watch is some possible ground fog at
TOP and FOE. The RAP shows winds becoming light with the boundary
layer saturating around sunrise. Other models show any boundary
layer moisture to be more shallow. Additionally there should be
some high clouds overspread the terminals limiting the radiational
cooling. Will monitor trends and later model runs to see if they
continue to hint at fog potential.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A red flag warning will be issued for locations generally along
and west of a line from near Emporia to Marysville on Friday
afternoon. Gusty southwest winds with gusts to 30 mph will
combine with minimum afternoon relative humidities in the 20-25
percent range resulting in critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McGuire
LONG TERM...McGuire
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...McGuire
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
117 PM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST WED MAR 2 2016
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY
LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. RED FLAG PARAMETERS ARE NOT
BEING MET AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY
UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE
PLUME DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS OUT AHEAD OF
IT. MAIN IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE NORMAL.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OR BRIEFLY CUT OFF UPPER LOW NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE
EASTERN HALF MAY GET DRY SLOTTED WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
OR SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO IN NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THAT
TIME. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST A BIT MUDDLED WITH LINGERING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA BUT NOT ANY REAL STRONG FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION. ECMWF SHOWING A LITTLE MORE QPF COMPARED TO THE GFS
BUT NEITHER VERY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THOSE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BLOW. THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING. ALSO IF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS THIS COULD ENHANCE
THE WINDS AS WELL. AM NOT AS CERTAIN AS EARLIER ON GETTING THE
STRONGER WINDS.
FOR KGLD...HOWEVER AM CONTINUING TO INCREASE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL
STOP GUSTS NEAR SUNSET. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW...GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
FOR KMCK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
23 KNOTS. AS WITH KGLD THE GUSTS WILL STOP NEAR SUNSET. ONCE
HEATING STARTS TOMORROW...WINDS WILL START GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KNOTS AGAIN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND...MOVING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA.
A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW CENTER THAT
ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER ON
MONDAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW CENTER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...MOVING
FROM THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND...SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BLOW. THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING. ALSO IF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS THIS COULD ENHANCE
THE WINDS AS WELL. AM NOT AS CERTAIN AS EARLIER ON GETTING THE
STRONGER WINDS.
FOR KGLD...HOWEVER AM CONTINUING TO INCREASE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL
STOP GUSTS NEAR SUNSET. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW...GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
FOR KMCK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
23 KNOTS. AS WITH KGLD THE GUSTS WILL STOP NEAR SUNSET. ONCE
HEATING STARTS TOMORROW...WINDS WILL START GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KNOTS AGAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL COMPLICATE FORECAST LIMITING WINDS AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING...HOWEVER BASED ON BL WINDS EVEN IF MIXING IS
NOT AS STRONG WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 3HR OF 25 MPH GUSTS. BETTER
MIXING (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST) SUPPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMPLICATES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND TDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RAP/HRRR) SHOWING
TDS INCREASING FROM THE EAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY
00Z RAOBS GFS/ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AIR MASS ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL TDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO I LEANED THAT DIRECTION FOR MY
T/TD/RH FORECAST.
A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. NAM ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BE UNWELCOME
CONSIDERING PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTS. FOR NOW I UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE RH/WIND. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
OUR EAST IF WE SEE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TRANSLATE TO OUR
AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
414 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND...MOVING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA.
A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW CENTER THAT
ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER ON
MONDAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW CENTER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...MOVING
FROM THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND...SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS BY 18Z WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DECREASE BELOW 12KT AFTER 06Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG ERRATIC GUSTS.
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL COMPLICATE FORECAST LIMITING WINDS AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING...HOWEVER BASED ON BL WINDS EVEN IF MIXING IS
NOT AS STRONG WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 3HR OF 25 MPH GUSTS. BETTER
MIXING (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST) SUPPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMPLICATES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND TDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RAP/HRRR) SHOWING
TDS INCREASING FROM THE EAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY
00Z RAOBS GFS/ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AIR MASS ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL TDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO I LEANED THAT DIRECTION FOR MY
T/TD/RH FORECAST.
A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. NAM ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BE UNWELCOME
CONSIDERING PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTS. FOR NOW I UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE RH/WIND. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
OUR EAST IF WE SEE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TRANSLATE TO OUR
AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
350 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND...MOVING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA.
A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW CENTER THAT
ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER ON
MONDAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW CENTER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...MOVING
FROM THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND...SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH A SCT150-250 MIX. FOR
WINDS...SSW AROUND 10 KTS THRU 16Z-17Z...THEN WNW 15-30
KTS...DIMINISHING TO 10-20 KTS BY 04Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL COMPLICATE FORECAST LIMITING WINDS AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING...HOWEVER BASED ON BL WINDS EVEN IF MIXING IS
NOT AS STRONG WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 3HR OF 25 MPH GUSTS. BETTER
MIXING (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST) SUPPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMPLICATES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND TDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RAP/HRRR) SHOWING
TDS INCREASING FROM THE EAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY
00Z RAOBS GFS/ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AIR MASS ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL TDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO I LEANED THAT DIRECTION FOR MY
T/TD/RH FORECAST.
A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. NAM ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BE UNWELCOME
CONSIDERING PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTS. FOR NOW I UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE RH/WIND. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
OUR EAST IF WE SEE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TRANSLATE TO OUR
AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
331 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN THE MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND...MOVING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER THE
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA.
A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS EXPECTED
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW CENTER
THAT ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER
ON MONDAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW CENTER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...MOVING
FROM THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND...SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH A SCT150-250 MIX. FOR
WINDS...SSW AROUND 10 KTS THRU 16Z-17Z...THEN WNW 15-30
KTS...DIMINISHING TO 10-20 KTS BY 04Z THURSDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
327 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
REMAIN DRY WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIPITATION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL SEE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. DEW POINTS APPEAR TO STAY HIGH
ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY BUT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRESENTS PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE FOUR CORNERS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY
APPEARS TO MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS GETTING
DRY SLOTTED. HOWEVER ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING. COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE
LACKING SO AS IT LOOKS NOW THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH A SCT150-250 MIX. FOR
WINDS...SSW AROUND 10 KTS THRU 16Z-17Z...THEN WNW 15-30
KTS...DIMINISHING TO 10-20 KTS BY 04Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL COMPLICATE FORECAST LIMITING WINDS AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING...HOWEVER BASED ON BL WINDS EVEN IF MIXING IS
NOT AS STRONG WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 3HR OF 25 MPH GUSTS. BETTER
MIXING (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST) SUPPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMPLICATES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND TDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RAP/HRRR) SHOWING
TDS INCREASING FROM THE EAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY
00Z RAOBS GFS/ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AIR MASS ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL TDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO I LEANED THAT DIRECTION FOR MY
T/TD/RH FORECAST.
A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. NAM ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BE UNWELCOME
CONSIDERING PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTS. FOR NOW I UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE RH/WIND. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
OUR EAST IF WE SEE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TRANSLATE TO OUR
AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1127 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS MIX
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM...HAVE CANCELED THE REMAINING ADVISORIES...WINTER AS WELL
AS WIND. FRIGID AIRMASS HAS BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALREADY FROM THE NW.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED..ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
945 AM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED NH AND HAS TURNED TO RAIN
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHWESTERN MAINE IN
FRANKLIN AND SOMERSET COUNTIES AND A FEW OTHER COLD POCKETS WHERE
FROZEN AND OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. THE WINTER STORM
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 21Z OR 4 PM. THESE WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY AS RECENT DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT QUICKLY.
COLD DENSE AIR IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE WHITES HOLDING
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR
WILL SWEEP IN SHORTLY BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL AS
SUBZERO WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES EVERY HOUR AS WELL AS INCLUDED
HOURLY HRRR TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEMS TO SHOW THE CLASHING COLD
POOL AND COASTAL FRONT WELL.
550 AM UPDATE...THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONING TO RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I`VE DROPPED
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NEAR TERM
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET.
PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THREE HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS WERE APPROACHING 8 MILLIBARS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
LOW RACING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY WITH WARM FRONT
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY THE TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. NWS
DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BLOSSOMING AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
MID COAST MAINE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE JET BEFORE
TAPERING TO RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COLD AIR
DAMNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE COLUMN INITIALLY COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS MADE FOR A SLOPPY MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN BY DAWN. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE A BATTLE TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY WINDS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO 30S
IN THE THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD BACK
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
20S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT A DIGGING S/WV TROF EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. STRONG LOW PRES IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STRONGLY FAVORING AN OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. THE 02.00Z ECMWF EPS HAS
EDGED EVEN FARTHER SE WITH THE CLUSTERING OF LOW PRES CENTERS. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER FOR FAR SRN ZONES...BUT CHANCES FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
THRU THE WEEKEND TROFING LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS...BUT FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF AXIS SUN...AND ANOTHER S/WV MON COULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
A SN SHOWER OR TWO IN THE MTNS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ELSE.
BEYOND THAT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORECAST
THE PATTERN TO BREAK DOWN IN A BIG WAY. SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING
IS FORECAST OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH H8 TEMP ANOMALIES CLIMBING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD
BE QUITE MILD IF THAT FORECAST PATTERN HOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR/LIFR EARLY TODAY IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDS
IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO VFR.
SE SFC WIND GUSTING UP TO 40 KT THIS MORNING AT COASTAL TAF
SITES...THEN NW SFC WIND THROUGHOUT GUSTING UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. EITHER HIGH
PRES OR DRY NW FLOW IN CONTROL...KEEPING STORM TRACK TO OUR S.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE
DROPPED CASCO BAY TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER.
LONG TERM...FRI AN OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL OUT TO SEA. NE FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE AND SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF ME...AND A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. APPROACHING COLD FNT MON WILL BRING
INCREASING SW FLOW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
943 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS MIX
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED NH AND HAS TURNED TO RAIN
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHWESTERN MAINE IN
FRANKLIN AND SOMERSET COUNTIES AND A FEW OTHER COLD POCKETS WHERE
FROZEN AND OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. THE WINTER STORM
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 21Z OR 4 PM. THESE WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY AS RECENT DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT QUICKLY.
COLD DENSE AIR IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE WHITES HOLDING
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR
WILL SWEEP IN SHORTLY BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL AS
SUBZERO WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES EVERY HOUR AS WELL AS INCLUDED
HOURLY HRRR TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEMS TO SHOW THE CLASHING COLD
POOL AND COASTAL FRONT WELL.
550 AM UPDATE...THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONING TO RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I`VE DROPPED
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NEAR TERM
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET.
PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THREE HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS WERE APPROACHING 8 MILLIBARS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
LOW RACING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY WITH WARM FRONT
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY THE TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. NWS
DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BLOSSOMING AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
MID COAST MAINE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE JET BEFORE
TAPERING TO RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COLD AIR
DAMNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE COLUMN INITIALLY COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS MADE FOR A SLOPPY MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN BY DAWN. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE A BATTLE TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY WINDS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO 30S
IN THE THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD BACK
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
20S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT A DIGGING S/WV TROF EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. STRONG LOW PRES IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STRONGLY FAVORING AN OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. THE 02.00Z ECMWF EPS HAS
EDGED EVEN FARTHER SE WITH THE CLUSTERING OF LOW PRES CENTERS. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER FOR FAR SRN ZONES...BUT CHANCES FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
THRU THE WEEKEND TROFING LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS...BUT FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF AXIS SUN...AND ANOTHER S/WV MON COULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
A SN SHOWER OR TWO IN THE MTNS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ELSE.
BEYOND THAT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORECAST
THE PATTERN TO BREAK DOWN IN A BIG WAY. SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING
IS FORECAST OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH H8 TEMP ANOMALIES CLIMBING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD
BE QUITE MILD IF THAT FORECAST PATTERN HOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR/LIFR EARLY TODAY IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDS
IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO VFR.
SE SFC WIND GUSTING UP TO 40 KT THIS MORNING AT COASTAL TAF
SITES...THEN NW SFC WIND THROUGHOUT GUSTING UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. EITHER HIGH
PRES OR DRY NW FLOW IN CONTROL...KEEPING STORM TRACK TO OUR S.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR A STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. BY THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM...FRI AN OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL OUT TO SEA. NE FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE AND SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF ME...AND A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. APPROACHING COLD FNT MON WILL BRING
INCREASING SW FLOW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ027-028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
900 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS MORNING
AND WILL BE EAST OF THE GASPE PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NEEDED TO UPGRADE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. KBHB COMING
W/GUSTS TO 55 MPH THE LAST HR AND LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWED STRONG
WINDS OF 55-60KTS AT THE 950-850MB LAYER MOVING NE. GETTING SOME
REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ALONG THE COAST. SPORADIC ATTM.
LOW PRES REDEVELOPING FURTHER S NEAR THE AREA OF GREATEST
PRESSURE FALLS. LATEST PUAL POL RADAR SHOWED CHANGEOVER TO
FREEZING PRECIP NO INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY W/SLEET. FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS SE AROOSTOOK SOUTHWARD DOWN INTO CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND MUCH
OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. JUST RAIN SOUTH OF THERE TO THE COAST.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW LOW
TRACKING FURTHER S ACROSS THE MILLINOCKET(MLT)-HOULTON(HUL) LINE
WHICH WOULD KEEP FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE N. THE 925 MB
TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THIS AS WELL.
WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW. WILL RE-EVALUATE
HEADLINES BY 10 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN NY STATE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE GASPE PENINSULA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW TODAY. DOES IT PASS VERY CLOSE TO CARIBOU OR A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS,
MAINLY TO LOWER AMOUNTS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT ONLY AREAS FROM
AROUND FORT KENT WEST WILL SEE ALL SNOW, OR AT LEAST MOSTLY SNOW.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREAS ARE LIKELY ONLY
GOING TO BE IN THE 4-6" RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF 6-10" IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. WARMER AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH THIS
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES AT BAR HARBOR HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING, AND WILL DO SO IN THE GREATER BANGOR REGION BY AROUND 8
AM. AS THE LOW PULLS WAY THIS EVENING A SHARPLY COLDER AIR MASS
WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION. LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND FROM ZERO TO 10
ABOVE DOWNEAST. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THU WILL BE PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY AND QUITE COLD...WITH FCST 00Z GFS
925-850MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEG C COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING
CANGEM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. SUBSEQUENTLY...A BLEND OF THE RAW
MODEL AND MOS MODEL HI TEMPS IS A FEW DEG WARMER THAN A BLEND OF
THE GFS RAW MODEL/GMOS DATA.
WE THEN LOWERED OVRNGT LOWS FROM RAW/MOS MODEL LOWS OVR CNTRL...NE
AND PARTICULARLY NW BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS WHERE DEEPER...FRESHER SN
PACK...LGT LATE NGT WINDS UNDER SFC HI PRES AND SKIES THAT SHOULD
REMAIN CLEARER FROM LOW CLDNSS N OF OUR FA AND HI CLDNSS OVR THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FA. A FEW OF THE COLDEST NW VLY LCTNS COULD DROP
TO ERLY FRI MORN LOWS OF -25 TO 30 DEG F.
WITH MODERATING 925-850 MB TEMPS...HI TEMPS FRI AFTN SHOULD
RECOVER MARKEDLY...TO ABOUT 10 DEG WARMER THAN THU`S HI TEMPS OVR
THE N...WITH HIGH/MID CLDNSS FROM LOW PRES MOVING E INTO THE OPEN
N ATLC REDUCING SOMEWHAT THE ADDITIONAL WARMING OVER CNTRL AND
PARTICULARLY DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. ATTM BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNFL WITH THE EXITING LOW MOVG E OF
THE MID ATLC STATES WILL REMAIN S OF OUR FA AND COASTAL WATERS FRI
INTO FRI NGT...WITH CLRG SKIES SPREADING SE FROM NRN ME INTO SE ME
BY LATE FRI NGT. WITH HI PRES STILL CNTRD OVR NRN PTNS OF THE
FA...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN BE OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT WITH MODERATING 925-850MB TEMPS...OVRNGT
LOWS OVR THE N HLF OF THE FA SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THU
NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FA WILL REMAIN IN BROAD WNW FLOW ALF PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM...WITH WEAK S/WVS CROSSING THE FA FROM CNTRL CAN FROM TM TO
TM...INCLUDING LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN AND AGAIN LATER SUN NGT
INTO MON BRINGING EITHER SCT FLURRIES AND/OR SCT SN SHWRS WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. EVENTUALLY...WITH THE RETREAT
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WELL INTO NRN CAN AND RISING 500MB HTS...SFC
TEMPS WILL RESPOND WITH WARMER...ABV AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS...SPCLY
BY ERLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR TODAY WITH CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR THIS EVENING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS AND TO MVFR AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALES AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARNING WILL
NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY SCA WINDS THU MORN WITH LGT FZG SPY...
SUBSIDING FROM GALES FROM WED NGT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS AT
OR BELOW MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA...WITH PERHAPS A PD OF STRONGER SCA
CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ011-015-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ005-006-010-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ016-017-
029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1243 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THE 840PM UPDATE...ONLY SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...RELIED MAINLY ON HIRES GUIDANCE HERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT
LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS
AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN
EARLIER PROGGED...ACRS NRN OH AND LAKE ERIE. WITH THE SFC LOW
DEEPENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LVL JET AND
MIXING AFT FROPA...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 50 MPH.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD
ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. NR TERM GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WED MRNG...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AS THE UPR TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY
RGN THU...AS ANOTHER ADVANCES ACRS THE LWR GREAT LAKES THU NGT.
MDLS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF AND SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS SEEMED THE
MOST REASONABLE ATTM AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED... RESULTING IN A LGT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST LATER THU AND THU NGT...THOUGH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ESP S OF
PIT.
SNOW CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING THE
LATEST SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...SO THE SUPERBLEND WAS HEAVILY
USED TO FLESH OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHSN TO DEVELOP ONCE NW FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED. MVFR CIGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT FKL/DUJ WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SLOW
IMPROVMENT BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WITH TIME
AND CIGS RISING. VFR WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED AT MANY LOCATIONS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHOWERS SHUTTING OFF. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR
A TIME.
CL
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY TO BRING MORE DEGRADATIONS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>511.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN LAKES. WITH THE LIGHT NRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...LOW LEVEL CONV
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -18C SUPPORTED
SCT LES FROM ERN ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY.
TONIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING OR EVEN A MESO-LOW OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE LIGHT LES INTO ERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LAND BREEZES AND LAKE INDUCED CIRCULATIONS BECOME
MORE PROMINENT. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE LES NEAR THE ERN CWA
SHORELINE WILL DEVELOP IS LOW BUT THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AOB 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. ANY LES ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
REMAIN OFF SHORE. HOWEVER...A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW FROM LAKE MI MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE GARDEN PENINSULA OR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. AGAIN IN THE WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT...CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY LES THAT WILL AFFECT THE CWA IS LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
BY 00Z FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND FAR SE
ONTARIO AND S QUEBEC. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BE ACCENTUATED BY AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN ON THE
NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC LOW WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA 09Z-21Z FRIDAY...AS
850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND -12C.
WAA TAKES HOLD OVER UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT NEARING FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS E ND/W MN. WAA SNOW WILL INVADE
W UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL MN AND
850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C. WHILE MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE
SFC LOW SINKING ACROSS CENTRAL WI FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING OVER UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS AN OUTLIER
BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE OUR FCST WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH...SHIFTING THE LOW ACROSS S WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST PRECIP TO AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER
WHERE 850MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -7C. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. QPF TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND
0.10 INCHES TO AROUND 0.20 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST EXPECTED ALONG
THE WI BORDER WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE LOCATED. THESE QPF
TOTALS WITH AROUND 13 TO 15 TO SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL GIVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. AGAIN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE WI BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC SATURDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...WITH ONLY A BRIEF TURN OF THE SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NW. BUT
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C OVER THE E HALF...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
WAA WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
LOW EXITS E AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS BY 18Z SUNDAY
WILL INCREASE TO 0 TO 6C /HIGHEST OFF THE GFS AS IT INDICATES 850MB
W-SW FLOW OF 40-55KTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/. EXPECT
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP TO START SUNDAY EVENING AS RAIN. THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES...SO WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS. A REBOUNDING 500MB
RIDGE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN INCREASED WAA INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY 12Z TUESDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
8C...ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 50F. WITH A STACKED SFC-
500MB LOW ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AND W MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
COULD BE AN INTERESTING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL
WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS GET MORE IN LINE BEFORE JUMPING ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO EJECT NE...SLIDING JUST NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY EVENING-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE S END OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE OVER WI/UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT AVERAGE NEARLY 12HRS. COULD BE A
WET AND WARM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME BKN CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE AT KSAW THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AT KCMX LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IF THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO VSBY
RESTRICTION TO OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS
IN WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH SAT. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SUN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO INCREASES
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO 25 KTS BY MON AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE NRN LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT LOW OVER NE
CANADA. A LARGE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM WI INTO
IL AND LOW PRES OVER ERN IL REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. NW
FLOW LES INTO THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C
WAS LIMITED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 4K FT AND VERY DRY AIR
UPSTREAM FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SHORTER FETCH INTO WRN UPPER
MI...MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV INTO ALGER COUNTY WHERE
ADDITIONAL ACUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
HEATING MAY HELP TO GENERATE MORE DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER
CNTRL UPPER MI WITH STEEPENING 1000-800 MB LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE 500MB LOW ROTATING
ACROSS JAMES BAY AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN -15 AND -17C THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS /ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC/...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LES WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...ASSISTED
BY STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT. A MESO LOW IS PROGGED BY THE NAM/HI-RESWRF
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-E LAKE SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW POTENITAL TO BE ENHANCED MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT MAY SEE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANCE ROTAING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STATES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY. WHILE FCST MODELS ARE
CONSISTANT WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM FAR S ALBERTA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND DOWN THROUGH E CO AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH BECOMES A BIT MORE WASHED OUT/WEAKENS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS WI/IL/IN BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE NEXT
AGRESSIVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NW. THE
MAIN RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WAA...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ON AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C.
THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB GETS STUCK UP IN N CANADA...AND
THE NEXT DEEPENING LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND ACROSS AK ALLOWS
FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OF WARM AIR TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE N PLAINS.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING FROM THE N
CANADAIN LOW. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY. THE DEEP
SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK ACROSS ONTARIO...EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB W-SW WINDS OF 45-
55KTS FROM 18Z SUNDAY-JUST PAST 00Z MONDAY...WHILE 850MB TEMPS RISE
TO A CWA AVERAGE OF 4C.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO REBOUND ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY-TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 7C
NEXT TUESDAY...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 4K FT...
RESULTING IN OCNL HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT KCMX/KSAW. AT KIWD...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE THE RULE THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
MORE LIMITED FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. IF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR DO AFFECT KCMX OR KSAW...LITTLE OR NO VIS
RESTRICTION WILL OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
AFTER HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
836 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE USHERING IN COOLER AIR...BUT
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WHERE THE WIND HAS GONE CALM...FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. HRRR IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE BELIEF THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE WEAK CAA SHOULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
BECOMING ANYMORE THAN PATCHY DENSE. HAVE OUTLOOKED A LIMITED
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO./26/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z.
THEREAFTER...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 04/14Z. CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WILL IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO
VFR BY 04/18Z./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016/
DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED MESS OF WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE END RESULT MANIFESTING IN CURRENT
SMATTERING OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS RACING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORTUNATELY THE ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT BEEN
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEFINITELY ENOUGH
WIND SHEAR TO IMPART LOTS OF MID LEVEL ROTATION TO MANY OF THESE
STORMS. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION IS VERY COLD ALOFT...WHICH IS HELPING TO BOOST CAPE
VALUES TO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FOR MANY OF THESE CELLS (WHICH IS
NOT TOO SHABBY CONSIDERING STORMS DO NOT EXTEND MUCH OVER 30 KFT).
MOST OF THIS CAPE IS NOT REALLY SURFACE-BASED...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND ALSO TORNADOES (BUT CERTAINLY NOT HAIL).
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS BASED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 AND THERE WILL BE BETTER WIND DAMAGE (AND EVEN
ISOLATED TORNADO) POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE HWO/GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY
UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT ADJUSTMENTS IN THINKING.
DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THE CONSENSUS
IDEA OF HIRES MODELS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST MS BY 6 PM (AND THEN DEPARTING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER) SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE. DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DOES
NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG AND IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
FORMING LATER ON TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY CLEAR AND
WINDS REMAIN 5 MPH OR LESS. POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF DENSE FOG LATE
TONIGHT DOES NOT LOOK HIGH AND NOTHING ALONG THESE LINES WAS
INCLUDED IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS...BUT FOR THE EVENING UPDATE SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTERS WILL BE EXAMINING TRENDS CLOSELY AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
FOR TOMORROW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
RELAXING BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
(ESPECIALLY NORTH) AND SCATTERED MORNING TO MIDDAY CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM INSOLATION. GOOD ANTICIPATED RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE IN THE
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS.
LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND STORMS RETURNING
FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL PROBABLY TUESDAY AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE PLAINS. WILL POST THE RELEVANT PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL VALID. /BB/
AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND VISBY REDUCTIONS IN OCCASIONAL +RA.
SCT TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH 1 INCH HAIL AND 50
KT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR
(OCCASIONALLY IFR) RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
SHIFTING FROM S/SE TO W/NW AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. /DL/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS
SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER...THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW OVER OUR CWA BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEAK DRY TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. IN ITS WAKE A 1028MB HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING A LIGHT DRY
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BACK ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN JUST EAST OF OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT OVER OUR CWA INTO MONDAY MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER
OVER OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT LAST THOUGH. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING. WAA
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL INCREASE OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY. OUR PWATS WILL
INCREASE FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS
BY TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS ANOMALOUS
PWAT IS WOULD BE A MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WIND FIELDS
WILL INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. THIS EXISTS BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS
THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. THE MAIN AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55
AND WL INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. MODELS ARE SLOW TO MOVE
THIS CLOSED LOW OUT AND BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE THE LOW
STILL OVER MEXICO THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARD
TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST OVER OUR CWA. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 46 64 42 / 65 1 0 0
MERIDIAN 57 42 63 37 / 82 5 0 0
VICKSBURG 75 47 65 44 / 51 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 71 46 67 41 / 65 6 0 0
NATCHEZ 76 48 66 45 / 36 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 64 41 60 42 / 53 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 57 39 61 40 / 68 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
151 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 12-18 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION AND RAPIDLY UPDATES SUITES ARE
BEGINNING TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING SNOWFALL EVENT
WITH GREATER RADAR SAMPLING BEING ASSIMILATED. AS OF 1945 UTC A
LINE MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALSO OBSERVED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER SATELLITE...RADAR AND WEBCAM
TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1630 UTC AND THE
FULL 12-15 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 12-13 UTC OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS...AND
THE GLOBAL 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES CONTINUE THE TREND
OF A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...WITH A FAVORED AXIS NOW FROM WILLISTON
THROUGH KILLDEER AND LINTON. THE CLIPPER HAS ALSO SLOWED...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS TIME WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO BE ERODED AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS SOUNDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN BLENDING RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 16 UTC...
WHICH MAINLY MEANT REDUCING/SLOWING THE RAMP-UP IN POPS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1230 UTC SUGGEST
THAT MOST OF THE RADAR ECHOES FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN ND
REPRESENT PRECIPITATION THAT IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING
MONTANA. IN RESPONSE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS IS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. RADAR IS FILLING IN A BIT ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE
FIRST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FINALLY INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION
IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE LEADING TO MELTING OF ICE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS SOON AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS THREAT SHOULD END AS ROAD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING THRESHOLD MOST OF
THE DAY ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WHEN IT`S ALL FINISHED BY TONIGHT...ONLY AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A DRY AND VERY WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE
BEFORE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ONE LAST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SET FOR FRIDAY. THE 00
UTC GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A WARM FRONTAL
ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING AND THERE
WILL THEREFORE BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 32 F. THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE THING SINCE
THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION ARE IN
QUESTION...BOTH OF WHICH ARE BORNE OUT BY SREF-BASED POPS WHICH
ARE CAPPED AT AROUND 15 PERCENT...BUT THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...500-MB RIDGING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S F...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. RECENT BIASES RESULTING FROM A
LACK OF SNOW COVER SUGGEST ACTUAL HIGHS MAY END UP BEING WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER...WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEEP TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH STRONG POLE-
WARD MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BENEATH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS TOO SOON TO KEY ON ANY PARTICULAR FEATURES SEEN
IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY
THAT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PERIOD CENTERED
ON TUESDAY /AS SUPPORTED BY CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN
STRATUS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1058 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1630 UTC AND THE
FULL 12-15 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 12-13 UTC OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS...AND
THE GLOBAL 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES CONTINUE THE TREND
OF A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...WITH A FAVORED AXIS NOW FROM WILLISTON
THROUGH KILLDEER AND LINTON. THE CLIPPER HAS ALSO SLOWED...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS TIME WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO BE ERODED AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS SOUNDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN BLENDING RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 16 UTC...
WHICH MAINLY MEANT REDUCING/SLOWING THE RAMP-UP IN POPS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1230 UTC SUGGEST
THAT MOST OF THE RADAR ECHOES FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN ND
REPRESENT PRECIPITATION THAT IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING
MONTANA. IN RESPONSE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS IS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. RADAR IS FILLING IN A BIT ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE
FIRST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FINALLY INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION
IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE LEADING TO MELTING OF ICE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS SOON AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS THREAT SHOULD END AS ROAD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING THRESHOLD MOST OF
THE DAY ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WHEN IT`S ALL FINISHED BY TONIGHT...ONLY AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A DRY AND VERY WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE
BEFORE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ONE LAST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SET FOR FRIDAY. THE 00
UTC GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A WARM FRONTAL
ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING AND THERE
WILL THEREFORE BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 32 F. THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE THING SINCE
THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION ARE IN
QUESTION...BOTH OF WHICH ARE BORNE OUT BY SREF-BASED POPS WHICH
ARE CAPPED AT AROUND 15 PERCENT...BUT THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...500-MB RIDGING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S F...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. RECENT BIASES RESULTING FROM A
LACK OF SNOW COVER SUGGEST ACTUAL HIGHS MAY END UP BEING WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER...WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEEP TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH STRONG POLE-
WARD MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BENEATH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS TOO SOON TO KEY ON ANY PARTICULAR FEATURES SEEN
IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY
THAT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PERIOD CENTERED
ON TUESDAY /AS SUPPORTED BY CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN
STRATUS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
850 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 12-13 UTC OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS...AND
THE GLOBAL 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES CONTINUE THE TREND
OF A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...WITH A FAVORED AXIS NOW FROM WILLISTON
THROUGH KILLDEER AND LINTON. THE CLIPPER HAS ALSO SLOWED...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS TIME WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO BE ERODED AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS SOUNDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN BLENDING RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 16 UTC...
WHICH MAINLY MEANT REDUCING/SLOWING THE RAMP-UP IN POPS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1230 UTC SUGGEST
THAT MOST OF THE RADAR ECHOES FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN ND
REPRESENT PRECIPITATION THAT IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING
MONTANA. IN RESPONSE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS IS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. RADAR IS FILLING IN A BIT ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE
FIRST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FINALLY INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION
IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE LEADING TO MELTING OF ICE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS SOON AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS THREAT SHOULD END AS ROAD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING THRESHOLD MOST OF
THE DAY ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WHEN IT`S ALL FINISHED BY TONIGHT...ONLY AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A DRY AND VERY WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE
BEFORE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ONE LAST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SET FOR FRIDAY. THE 00
UTC GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A WARM FRONTAL
ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING AND THERE
WILL THEREFORE BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 32 F. THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE THING SINCE
THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION ARE IN
QUESTION...BOTH OF WHICH ARE BORNE OUT BY SREF-BASED POPS WHICH
ARE CAPPED AT AROUND 15 PERCENT...BUT THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...500-MB RIDGING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S F...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. RECENT BIASES RESULTING FROM A
LACK OF SNOW COVER SUGGEST ACTUAL HIGHS MAY END UP BEING WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER...WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEEP TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH STRONG POLE-
WARD MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BENEATH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS TOO SOON TO KEY ON ANY PARTICULAR FEATURES SEEN
IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY
THAT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PERIOD CENTERED
ON TUESDAY /AS SUPPORTED BY CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN
STRATUS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THIS TREND TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE COAST AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THEN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH LOCAL
MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM
THE CASCADES WESTWARD. -DW
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED 02 MAR 2016...SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY
STEEP AND SWELL DOMINATED THIS MORNING WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING THEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW WITH GALES AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED
SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS AND A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
AROUND 16 FEET AT 15 SECONDS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER VERY POTENT FRONT IS
EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY
AND STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH SWELL
AND WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY BRING STEEP AND POWERFUL SEAS AT A PEAK
OF AROUND 22 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG STORM ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. -DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM PST WED MAR 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH..EXPECT WINDS ALONG THE
COAST TO INCREASE. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH ALONG THE
COAST TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS AT H925 IS STRONG..THE DIRECTION IS MORE
SOUTHERLY AND LESS SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO THE
BARRIER PHENOMENON BUT WINDS SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THE WARNING. WE HAVE TRIMMED THE COVERAGE AREA DOWN TO MAINLY FROM
BANDON SOUTH PAST GOLD BEACH TO NEAR PISTOL RIVER WITH THE
STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS AROUND PORT ORFORD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WE
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. H700 WINDS
INDICATE SPEEDS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL.
INTERESTINGLY GUIDANCE KEEPS BREEZY CONDITION OVERNIGHT EVEN
AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. THIS IS RATHER UNUSUAL AS
NORMALLY WINDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE INLAND WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SPINS UP
ANOTHER FRONT AND THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF IT.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS PORTION OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY
AND SILVER LAKE AS WELL AS IN THE CHRISTMAS VALLEY AND NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY THERE.
WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY WE EXPECT MEDFORD TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE I-5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT OVERNIGHT IN CURRY COUNTY WILL BE AROUND
HALF AN INCH WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN COOS COUNTY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RAIN WILL SPREAD BEYOND
KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASIN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT EVEN AT THE
COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN OPEN THE DOOR TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
EVENT THIS COMING WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE COMING
IN LINE WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH SOUTHERN OREGON RECEIVING DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS WELL.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN RAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
ARRIVES TUESDAY. HOWEVER OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE BREAK IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS A FAST MOVING JETSTREAM OFTEN LEADS TO UPSTREAM STORM
CATCHING UP QUICKER THAN WHAT THE MODELS FORECAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND SNOW MELT IS A CONCERN GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE JETSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH A BIT AND
THIS WILL BRING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4-5000 FEET ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ADD SOME SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
$$
NSK/DW/FB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1005 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL PULL
EAST AND OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMALS STARTING
MONDAY AND LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DISTINCT DRY SLOT ON RADAR SHOWING UP BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF VERY
MEAGER FORCING. WHAT SN IS OUT THERE IS REALLY LIGHT. TEMPS STILL
SLIGHTLY ABV FZG IN THE LOWER SUSQ - TOUGH TO GET IT TO STICK WHEN
THEY HAVE BEEN >32F ALL AFTN AND STILL INTO THE EVENING. THE DRY
AIR IS REALLY HAMPERING EFFORTS BY THE UPPER ATMOS TO SPREAD THE
SNOW INTO THE NERN MTNS AND POCONOS. KHGR IS DOWN TO 31F AND IT
HAS BEEN SNOWING LIGHTLY THERE FOR A WHILE. NARY A FLAKE HERE IN
HAPPY VALLEY. TRENDS OUT THERE NOW MATCH WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE BEEN PLAYING UP FOR A FEW RUNS. NEWEST NAM SNEAKING IN ALSO
MAKING VERY LITTLE SNOW FALL OVER A SWATH FROM SOMERSET TO
BERWICK. STILL LOOKING LIKE 1-2 A GOOD CALL OVERALL. JUST TWEAKING
THE NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE - CLOSE TO 1 - BETWEEN THE WC MTNS AND
THE FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
9 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE NC AND WC MTNS IN THE
MORNING. THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE IN PLACE AS UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU VERY QUICKLY W-E. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN IN
SOME OF THE AREA IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
PREV...
ANY LINGERING LGT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID AM ACROSS THE
AREA...AS MID LVL TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDL DATA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA...SO SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE MID RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES...AND GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW AND CONVERGENCE...HAVE
BROUGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP FROM MDL TIMING OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW
SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME VERY LGT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME
ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK.
THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE SE AND
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF PA THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL BE ADJUSTING THE 03Z TAFS FOR THIS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
DID SLOW THINGS DOWN SOME LAST EVENING WHEN I DID THE 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. GLAD I DID...AS MOST AREAS ARE STILL VFR.
SOME SNOW AT JST. BACK UP TO 3SM...BUT EXPECT IT TO DROP
DOWN...BASED ON RADAR ETC.
CIGS WILL TREND LOWER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD -SN AND IFR VIS
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON SATELLITE ETC...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IMPROVING CONDS BY FRI EVE/NGT.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
916 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL PULL
EAST AND OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMALS STARTING
MONDAY AND LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DISTINCT DRY SLOT ON RADAR SHOWING UP BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF VERY
MEAGER FORCING. WHAT SN IS OUT THERE IS REALLY LIGHT. TEMPS STILL
SLIGHTLY ABV FZG IN THE LOWER SUSQ - TOUGH TO GET IT TO STICK WHEN
THEY HAVE BEEN >32F ALL AFTN AND STILL INTO THE EVENING. THE DRY
AIR IS REALLY HAMPERING EFFORTS BY THE UPPER ATMOS TO SPREAD THE
SNOW INTO THE NERN MTNS AND POCONOS. KHGR IS DOWN TO 31F AND IT
HAS BEEN SNOWING LIGHTLY THERE FOR A WHILE. NARY A FLAKE HERE IN
HAPPY VALLEY. TRENDS OUT THERE NOW MATCH WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE BEEN PLAYING UP FOR A FEW RUNS. NEWEST NAM SNEAKING IN ALSO
MAKING VERY LITTLE SNOW FALL OVER A SWATH FROM SOMERSET TO
BERWICK. STILL LOOKING LIKE 1-2 A GOOD CALL OVERALL. JUST TWEAKING
THE NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE - CLOSE TO 1 - BETWEEN THE WC MTNS AND
THE FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
9 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE NC AND WC MTNS IN THE
MORNING. THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE IN PLACE AS UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU VERY QUICKLY W-E. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN IN
SOME OF THE AREA IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
PREV...
ANY LINGERING LGT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID AM ACROSS THE
AREA...AS MID LVL TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDL DATA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA...SO SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE MID RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES...AND GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW AND CONVERGENCE...HAVE
BROUGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP FROM MDL TIMING OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW
SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME VERY LGT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME
ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK.
THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
DID SLOW THINGS DOWN SOME LAST EVENING WHEN I DID THE 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. GLAD I DID...AS MOST AREAS STILL VFR.
SOME SNOW AT JST. BACK UP TO 3SM...BUT EXPECT IT TO DROP
DOWN...BASED ON RADAR ETC.
CIGS WILL TREND LOWER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD -SN AND IFR VIS
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON SATELLITE ETC...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IMPROVING CONDS BY FRI EVE/NGT.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
640 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL PULL
EAST AND OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMALS STARTING
MONDAY AND LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES HAVE BEGUN IN THE SRN TIER...BUT AIR IS DRY AND IT WILL
TAKE LOTS OF WORK TO GET THE SNOW TO FALL AT ANY HALF-WAY DECENT
INTENSITY. VIZ HAS BEEN IFR AT KJST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS - BUT
NOTHING TO BE SEEN ON THE GROUND ON WEBCAMS ACROSS THE LAURELS.
ORGANIZATION AND FORCING LACKING IN THIS SNOWFALL. LATEST HRRR AND
RAP SPELL LESS QPF AND THIS SUPPORTS EARLIER FORECASTS OF JUST
1-2" DESPITE 12-18 HRS OF SNOW FALLING. ALL THAT IS NEEDED WITH
THIS UPDATE IS A FRESHENING OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING LGT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID AM ACROSS THE
AREA...AS MID LVL TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDL DATA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA...SO SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE MID RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES...AND GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW AND CONVERGENCE...HAVE
BROUGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP FROM MDL TIMING OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW
SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME VERY LGT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME
ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK.
THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
DID SLOW THINGS DOWN SOME LAST EVENING WHEN I DID THE 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. GLAD I DID...AS MOST AREAS STILL VFR.
SOME SNOW AT JST. BACK UP TO 3SM...BUT EXPECT IT TO DROP
DOWN...BASED ON RADAR ETC.
CIGS WILL TREND LOWER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD -SN AND IFR VIS
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON SATELLITE ETC...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IMPROVING CONDS BY FRI EVE/NGT.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
112 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.
WIND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE SUSQ RIVER AT 06Z WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING BACK INTO WESTERN PA. COLD AIR IS
RUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WITH CURRENT READINGS ALREADY IN THE
25-35F RANGE WEST OF RT 219. MEANWHILE READINGS ARE NEAR 60F
AROUND HRB/YORK/LANCASTER. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES WITH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HRRR IS SHOWING VERY
LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION AND HAVE CUT BACK THRU AT LEAST 12Z.
WATCH OUT FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WET
ROADS.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON HOWEVER WILL CONSIDER
AN EARLY CANCELLATION AS PEAK WIND GUSTS FCST TO DROP BELOW
CRITERIA. THAT SAID IT WILL STILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY WITH FREQUENT
35-40 MPH GUSTS. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL LIKE THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURSDAY AND A
FAST- MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEAK HIGH. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW FILLING
IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC
CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARMER TREND SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...TO MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...BUT
WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY- EXPECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY IF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE NEW/OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT AND ADJUST
LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WAS CONCERN WHEN I WORKED SUNDAY THAT WARM FRONT WOULD BE OVER
N PA EARLY TUE. TODAY ENDED UP BEING MILD AND DRY.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND WED WILL BE LLWS AND GUSTY WINDS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOW CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON WED...AS A NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN
HOW FAST THE RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND ADD A FEW GROUPS
AFT 18Z WED.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PM LGT SNOW.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW.
SAT...CHC OF SOME LGT SNOW.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024-025-033-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
553 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LIGHT LOW
LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM SLIGHT COOLING TO THE START OF WARMING. CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WILL BE TRICKY...IN LINE WITH TODAYS SUNNY AREA IN
THE MIDDLE OF A CWA OTHERWISE COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS. SOME DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE IS STILL TRYING TO GET ESTABLISHED BUT THE FLOW BEING
LIGHT AS SOME EVENING COOLING TRIES TO GET GOING...AND THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING OFF WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR WHOLESALE CLEARING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. SOME LOWERING OF RH FROM THE WEST AS THE WARMING FLOW
GETS GOING LATE TONIGHT COULD HELP A LITTLE...BUT BY THAT TIME AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COULD BE SPREADING MIDDLE CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH AND SHOULD STEADY OFF AND RISE
A TAD LATE...LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE APPROACHING NORTHWESTERLY SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT COULD BRING
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD NOT BE SNOW
BUT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL WARMING TEMPERATURES MAKE IT RAIN.
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS QUESTIONABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
UPPER SUPPORT PASSING THROUGH QUICKLY. POPS WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE AND MAINLY NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT
LATE IN THE MORNING...BY THAT TIME LIGHT RAIN...SHOULD MOVE EAST
QUICKLY AS THE AFTERNOON BEGINS. DRYING AND WARMING SHOULD FINALLY
BRING DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.TEMEPRATURES WILL WARM TO THE 40S NORTHEAST TO THE
50S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE MID TO LONG RANGE
PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...WITH ONLY REAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
COMING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR LOWS TOWARD
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WITH LINGERING
SNOW COVER...THOUGH STILL LOOKING AT READINGS IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS FROM AROUND 40 IN SOUTHWEST MN TO NEAR 60 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRAW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND SOME MODELS POINT TO
INCREASE IN STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE MOISTURE PUSH. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL HOLD LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
THE STRATUS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK FROM FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
SUNDAY...BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...STILL LOOKS VERY
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...TO MID 60S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COOL
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WELL ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY
MARCH. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS INTO REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE ABOVE ANY STRATUS LAYER STILL QUITE LIMITED...
SO AT THIS POINT ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL MONDAY.
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTH LEADING WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE ON MONDAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. TREND IS TO PUSH THE WARM AIR FARTHER NORTH...SO HAVE
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY IN
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18. WARMER AIR LEADING TO SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRETTY
STOUT CAP UNTIL THE COOL FRONT APPROACHES...SO DAYTIME CHANCES OF
OF PRECIP REMAIN ON THE LOWER END 20-30 PERCENT.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
STILL PROVIDING A THREAT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH STRETCH OF MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
STILL NOT THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN THE WORLD WITH THE 00Z TAF SET.
BUT THE WEATHER IS RATHER INTERESTING. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
THINNING WHICH IS ALLOWING A BETTER VIEW OF THE STRATUS ON THE
VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE PICTURES. THE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
DRYING UP...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA WHICH
EXPLAINS WHY KSUX HAS RECENTLY GONE VFR. KFSD HAS BEEN VFR ALL DAY
AND KHON IS NOW ON THE EDGE OF A STRATUS FIELD TOGGLING BETWEEN
SCATTERED AND BROKEN MVFR. ONCE AGAIN...THE NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INUNDATE THE AREA WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH COULD BE RELATED TO SNOW MELT IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT KSUX.
THEY ARE VIRTUALLY NOT USABLE. THEREFORE RELIED HEAVILY ON THE
GFS SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE PROBABLY SHOWING TOO LITTLE STRATUS IN THE
NEAR TERM ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE MVFR STRATUS IS
ORGANIZED AND THICK. BUT CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT AS THE WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO GO SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...THAT THERE
MAY NOT BE A LOT LEFT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA IN TERMS OF STRATUS TO
ADVECT INTO OUR TAF SITES. THEREFORE WENT A MORE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LEAVING AN MVFR
SCATTERED DECK IN HERE AND THERE AS A HEDGE IN CASE SOME MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPS AT TIMES. THAT SAID...THERE IS A LOT OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
A SHORT WAVE SO HOPEFULLY THESE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST KEEP FOG AT
BAY. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL MONITOR THE TAFS CLOSELY FOR ORGANIZED
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1004 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SUNDAY. A LARGE
HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST THURSDAY...
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO WANE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. REGIONAL RADAR AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION ALONG THE SE COAST WILL HINDER MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE
AREA...SO MAINLY RELYING ON LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND UPPER VORT
MOVING ACROSS FOR SNOW. STILL THE MODELS HINTING AT BAND SETTING
UP IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH BOSTON NORTHEAST TOWARD
FARMVILLE...BUT THE HEAVIER BANDS LOOK TO BE JUST EAST...SO MAYBE
A 1-2 INCH MAX THERE ONCE IT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS...WITH SNOW STILL FALLING AT
MOST PLACES...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE BAND THAT SET UP EARLIER FROM SE WV TO AMHERST
PUT DOWN 2 TO 5 INCHES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG...AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEST
TO LOWER 30S EAST.
PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...
THIS BAND IS STARTING TO WANE SOMEWHAT AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...HEAVIER BAND OF
SHOWERS WELL SOUTH OF US MAY STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WHERE THIS LOW DEVELOPS EAST WILL IMPACT WHERE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY FORM. ATTM THAT LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF OUR SOUTHSIDE VA AREA...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE NEW RIVER VALLEY TO FAR SW
VA INTO PORTIONS OF NC MTNS MAY NOT GET MUCH AT ALL...1" OR LESS.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SOIL TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTING OF UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FEW OTHER FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE SNOW
AMOUNTS TOO.
AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN AND DEW POINTS
WILL COME UP. FOLLOWED THIS NON DIURNAL TREND TO ESTABLISH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORTED SNOW
FORMATION AT UPPER LEVELS BUT SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE EAST. THE EXCEPTION IS A BAND OF HIGHER QPF
POTENTIAL FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE QPF WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AND THE
DEEPENING LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT SNOWFALL RATES TO OVERCOME
MELTING. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE WITH THIS OUTCOME.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVEL BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHEAST COMPONENT BEFORE THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE SIMILAR WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THESE MODELS BRING ONE
BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA A FEW HOURS
LATER...THEN SHOWING AN AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW FROM
CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. IN GENERAL WILL FOLLOW THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY BUT NOT A WARNING. SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THE
TIMING...FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE
GETTING SNOW DURING FRIDAY MORNINGS PEAK TRAVEL TIME.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE.
UPPER JET ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROF THEN INTENSIFIES RESULTING IN
SOME STRONGER LIFT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AND SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
MAV VALUES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ALLOW ANY UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
TO SUBSIDE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AS ONE MORE CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS PIN ITS
ARRIVAL WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS CONSIDERABLY WEAK
WITH JUST A 1016 MB LOW. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE KEPT IN THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS EAST OF THE CWA. THE HIGHER
RIDGETOPS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NO HEADLINES
FOR WIND WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MINIMAL
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AS IT DEPARTS OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FOR SKIES TO FINALLY CLEAR ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY...IT WILL SEEM LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE FLIPPED A SWITCH FROM
WINTER TO SPRING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ANCHOR ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 580 DAM OVERHEAD. THESE
FACTORS WILL START A NOTEWORTHY WARMING TREND. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY COULD EASILY REACH THE 60S AND 70S. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW...BUT ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. EVENTUALLY...THE WARM
FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY REACH THE MID ATLANTIC TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES EARLY
THIS EVENING TO OVER OR JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
OUR AREA IS GOING TO BE MAINLY AFFECTED BY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND AS FAR AS AVIATION WEATHER GOES WILL SEE MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME MODERATE SNOW NEAR LWB EARLY
ON...AND POSSIBLY SOME TOWARD DAN/LYH AFT 6Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TO 1/2SM THERE. OVERALL LOOK FOR
CIGS/VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR OR WORSE OVERNIGHT...THEN START TO
INCREASE AT DAN/LYH/ROA/BCB BETWEEN 15-17Z...WHILE BLF/LWB ONLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14-17Z.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018-019.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
647 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT...TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 555 PM EST THURSDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT HIGHER SNOWFALL WITH BAND SET UP
ACROSS ERN KY TO SE WV INTO BATH COUNTY VA. REPORTS OF 2.5 INCHES
IN HINTON WV...WITH ONE HOUR RATES OF 1+ INCHES AN HOUR. DECIDED
TO GROUP GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY IN SEPARATE ADVISORY SECTION
TO GO 2-4" AND LOCALLY HIGHER PER 18Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST HRRR.
THIS BAND IS STARTING TO WANE SOMEWHAT AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...HEAVIER BAND OF
SHOWERS WELL SOUTH OF US MAY STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WHERE THIS LOW DEVELOPS EAST WILL IMPACT WHERE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY FORM. ATTM THAT LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF OUR SOUTHSIDE VA AREA...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE NEW RIVER VALLEY TO FAR SW
VA INTO PORTIONS OF NC MTNS MAY NOT GET MUCH AT ALL...1" OR LESS.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SOIL TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTING OF UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FEW OTHER FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE SNOW
AMOUNTS TOO.
AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN AND DEW POINTS
WILL COME UP. FOLLOWED THIS NON DIURNAL TREND TO ESTABLISH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORTED SNOW
FORMATION AT UPPER LEVELS BUT SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE EAST. THE EXCEPTION IS A BAND OF HIGHER QPF
POTENTIAL FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE QPF WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AND THE
DEEPENING LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT SNOWFALL RATES TO OVERCOME
MELTING. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE WITH THIS OUTCOME.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVEL BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHEAST COMPONENT BEFORE THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE SIMILAR WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THESE MODELS BRING ONE
BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA A FEW HOURS
LATER...THEN SHOWING AN AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW FROM
CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. IN GENERAL WILL FOLLOW THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY BUT NOT A WARNING. SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THE
TIMING...FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE
GETTING SNOW DURING FRIDAY MORNINGS PEAK TRAVEL TIME.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE.
UPPER JET ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROF THEN INTENSIFIES RESULTING IN
SOME STRONGER LIFT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AND SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
MAV VALUES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ALLOW ANY UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
TO SUBSIDE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AS ONE MORE CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS PIN ITS
ARRIVAL WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS CONSIDERABLY WEAK
WITH JUST A 1016 MB LOW. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE KEPT IN THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS EAST OF THE CWA. THE HIGHER
RIDGETOPS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NO HEADLINES
FOR WIND WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MINIMAL
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AS IT DEPARTS OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FOR SKIES TO FINALLY CLEAR ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY...IT WILL SEEM LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE FLIPPED A SWITCH FROM
WINTER TO SPRING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ANCHOR ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 580 DAM OVERHEAD. THESE
FACTORS WILL START A NOTEWORTHY WARMING TREND. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY COULD EASILY REACH THE 60S AND 70S. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW...BUT ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. EVENTUALLY...THE WARM
FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY REACH THE MID ATLANTIC TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES EARLY
THIS EVENING TO OVER OR JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
OUR AREA IS GOING TO BE MAINLY AFFECTED BY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND AS FAR AS AVIATION WEATHER GOES WILL SEE MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME MODERATE SNOW NEAR LWB EARLY
ON...AND POSSIBLY SOME TOWARD DAN/LYH AFT 6Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TO 1/2SM THERE. OVERALL LOOK FOR
CIGS/VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR OR WORSE OVERNIGHT...THEN START TO
INCREASE AT DAN/LYH/ROA/BCB BETWEEN 15-17Z...WHILE BLF/LWB ONLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14-17Z.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018-019.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
607 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT...TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 555 PM EST THURSDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT HIGHER SNOWFALL WITH BAND SET UP
ACROSS ERN KY TO SE WV INTO BATH COUNTY VA. REPORTS OF 2.5 INCHES
IN HINTON WV...WITH ONE HOUR RATES OF 1+ INCHES AN HOUR. DECIDED
TO GROUP GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY IN SEPARATE ADVISORY SECTION
TO GO 2-4" AND LOCALLY HIGHER PER 18Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST HRRR.
THIS BAND IS STARTING TO WANE SOMEWHAT AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...HEAVIER BAND OF
SHOWERS WELL SOUTH OF US MAY STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WHERE THIS LOW DEVELOPS EAST WILL IMPACT WHERE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY FORM. ATTM THAT LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF OUR SOUTHSIDE VA AREA...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE NEW RIVER VALLEY TO FAR SW
VA INTO PORTIONS OF NC MTNS MAY NOT GET MUCH AT ALL...1" OR LESS.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SOIL TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTING OF UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FEW OTHER FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE SNOW
AMOUNTS TOO.
AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN AND DEW POINTS
WILL COME UP. FOLLOWED THIS NON DIURNAL TREND TO ESTABLISH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORTED SNOW
FORMATION AT UPPER LEVELS BUT SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE EAST. THE EXCEPTION IS A BAND OF HIGHER QPF
POTENTIAL FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE QPF WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AND THE
DEEPENING LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT SNOWFALL RATES TO OVERCOME
MELTING. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE WITH THIS OUTCOME.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVEL BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHEAST COMPONENT BEFORE THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE SIMILAR WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THESE MODELS BRING ONE
BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA A FEW HOURS
LATER...THEN SHOWING AN AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW FROM
CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. IN GENERAL WILL FOLLOW THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY BUT NOT A WARNING. SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THE
TIMING...FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE
GETTING SNOW DURING FRIDAY MORNINGS PEAK TRAVEL TIME.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE.
UPPER JET ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROF THEN INTENSIFIES RESULTING IN
SOME STRONGER LIFT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AND SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
MAV VALUES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ALLOW ANY UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
TO SUBSIDE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AS ONE MORE CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS PIN ITS
ARRIVAL WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS CONSIDERABLY WEAK
WITH JUST A 1016 MB LOW. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE KEPT IN THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS EAST OF THE CWA. THE HIGHER
RIDGETOPS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NO HEADLINES
FOR WIND WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MINIMAL
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AS IT DEPARTS OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FOR SKIES TO FINALLY CLEAR ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY...IT WILL SEEM LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE FLIPPED A SWITCH FROM
WINTER TO SPRING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ANCHOR ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 580 DAM OVERHEAD. THESE
FACTORS WILL START A NOTEWORTHY WARMING TREND. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY COULD EASILY REACH THE 60S AND 70S. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW...BUT ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. EVENTUALLY...THE WARM
FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY REACH THE MID ATLANTIC TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING WITH A GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN AT
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB/KROA/KLYH 20Z/3PM AND 00Z/7PM. RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN AT KDAN AROUND 00Z/7PM. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW. WITH THE SNOW...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BE IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST. SNOW
WILL END IN THE EAST AFTER 09Z/4AM BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AT THOSE SITES. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018-019.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1242 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR INCLUDING MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...POPS AND WINDS FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR SOLUTION.
MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...
AS OF 700 PM EST TUESDAY...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WITH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST NOW ENTERING THE EXTREME
WESTERN TIP OF VA. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND THIS SHOULD OCCUR FAR WEST
AROUND 03Z THEN EXIT THE EAST AROUND 08Z. WILL BE MANAGING THE
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS. NO CHANGES PLANNED
TO CURRENT HEADLINES.
PREVIOUS AFD...
RAPID CHANGES IN STORE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND WELL
TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE BOUNDARY
INCLUDING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADVANCE THAT SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA...AND THEN EXIT THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST
MESO MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM STILL SHOW A NARROW RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF SHOWERS SO STILL SOME
THUNDER THREAT MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER EARLIER TIMING.
ALTHOUGH NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGER
WINDS PER JET ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE
FAST MOVEMENT WITH THE SHOWERS.
HAVE ALSO MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE WIND HEADLINES
AND BOOSTED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE
NC MOUNTAINS INTO GRAYSON CTY VA. THIS SUPPORTED BY LOCAL SCHEME
NUMBERS INCLUDING A QUICK SURGE IN COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
OVER A RATHER SHALLOW INVERSION DESPITE A BIT LOWER 85H JET. ELSEWHERE
KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE AND CONSIDERED GOING ANOTHER
ROW OR SO OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST ESPCLY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHEN AIDED MORE BY MIXING DURING THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION.
AFTER COORDINATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE IN THE
HWO.
LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CATCHES UP WITH THE STRONG 85H COLD ADVECTION
AND UPSLOPE. HOWEVER MOISTURE RATHER SHALLOW IN A WIND BLOWN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. THUS ONLY RUNNING
WITH AN INCH OR TWO LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY. COULD SEE SOME OF
THESE BANDS SPILL OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WELL GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY OFF SOUNDINGS...WITHIN THE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...SO INCLUDED A SNOW SHOWER
MENTION OUT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS
COULD STILL BE FALLING AT 12Z AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS STILL
INBOUND. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSER TO THE MET MOS ESPCLY WEST WHERE
SOME UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S LIKELY WITH MOSTLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
OUT EAST.
MOISTURE STARTS TO FADE ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BUT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO
WIND DOWN OVER THE NW. OTHERWISE QUITE WINDY/BLUSTERY AND COLD UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WITH GOOD DRYING FROM ALOFT BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
FINALLY SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISH SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES. HOWEVER STILL QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 30S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY 40S BLUE RIDGE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD BY AN APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY
COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH...SO HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WERE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. THE MODELS DEPICT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ABOUT THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
KENTUCKY ON 00Z FRIDAY...WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD
AND HAS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER ALABAMA BY 00Z FRIDAY. MOST OF
THE ENSEMBLE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...AND SEEM TO INDICATE THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z NAM MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER TENNESSEE DURING 00Z FRIDAY.
BECAUSE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK DIFFERENCES AND THE
CONSEQUENCES THEY POSE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE GFS WAS TOSSED COMPLETELY OUT OF
CONSIDERATION. A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF WAS FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...THE OVERALL SCENARIO DEPICTS THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER...AND PRECIPITATION TURNING FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THEN...THE SNOW CHANGES BACK TO
RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS...DUE TO TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST
WIND SHOULD BEGIN UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
FACING SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES. THE UPSLOPE
MOISTURE SHOULD DECAY IN THE EVENING...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
WEAK IN ALL THE MODELS...SO ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
CHANGE. SPRING WILL SUDDENLY MAKE AN ABRUPT APPEARANCE ON
MONDAY...AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST.
COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...A
NOTABLE WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
THE 60S AND 70S BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE PROGRESS OF AN ORGANIZING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THUS...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRIER AND WARMER...A PHRASE RARELY USED TO DESCRIBE OUR WEATHER
SINCE 2016 BEGAN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1242 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
AND ALONG OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30KTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION REGIME TO TRANSITION TO UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR KBLF/KLWB...AND GENERALLY VFR IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AT KROA...KLYH...AND KDAN. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WEST OF THE RIDGE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCES ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
MAY EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL STORM WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF SUB- VFR IN RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>014-016>020-
022>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1102 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Water vapor loop indicating a weak shortwave tracking southeast
across east central IL this evening coupled with a surface
boundary stretching from east central Indiana southwest thru
southern IL has brought an area of rain and snow across the
forecast area early this evening. Radar returns and surface
observations continue to point towards a rapid decrease in precip
across east central and southeast Illinois over the next couple of
hours. High pressure is then forecast to drift into the region
Friday morning with a gradual clearing trend working its way into
the forecast area. Will have to keep an eye on the clouds to our
north as satellite data and upstream surface observations
indicating some breaks developing and if that were to occur before
sunrise, we may see some fog develop in the areas that do clear.
However, forecast soundings are still not very optimistic on that
happening until just after sunrise Friday.
Have already sent out an update to address the band of rain and
snow in eastern Illinois but with some additional adjustments made
to the precip trends in the east and southeast, will send out
another update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
19z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1010mb low over Arkansas, with a
trough axis extending northward into central Illinois. Light rain
continues to fall in the vicinity of the trough, but has now pushed
mainly east of the Illinois River. This feature is progged to be
located along the I-57 corridor by 00z, so am expecting some light
precip to linger across the E/SE CWA into the evening hours. As
winds become northerly on the back side of the trough, the
atmosphere will cool sufficiently to support a light rain/snow mix.
Based on latest trends and HRRR forecast, have included low chance
PoPs along/east of a Bloomington to Flora line this evening. Will
mention rain or snow north of the I-70 corridor: however, no snow
accumulation is expected. Once the trough pushes off to the east,
cloudy and cool conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
night with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s and lower
30s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
High pressure will move quickly across the state Friday with
partly sunny skies for the late morning and early afternoon and
slightly milder temperatures. Another storm system passing across
Wisconsin Friday night, with a trailing cold front and shortwave
passing through central IL will increase mid and high clouds and
southerly winds late in the day Friday, and bring at least a slight
chance for precipitation or drizzle overnight. There is some
question about precipitation type as temperatures will cool off to
become somewhat marginal for snow late in the night, however
precipitation should be mainly rain throughout central IL, with
perhaps a brief change to a mix of snow and rain toward the end of
precipitation Saturday morning. Even with temperatures cooling close
to freezing late in the night, moisture depth may drop off too
dramatically for anything more than liquid drizzle to form at that
point.
A trend toward warmer temperatures is then in store for Saturday
through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge shifts eastward to the
central and eastern U.S. Highs on Saturday range from 45 in
Galesburg to 55 in Lawrenceville...and are expected to increase to
the mid and upper 60s by Tuesday. Meanwhile, lows Saturday night are
expected to cool to a few degrees below freezing, but should trend
upward to the low 50s by Monday night.
A series of small waves ejecting out of a trough over the
western states will bring periodic chances for showers and some
thunderstorms through central and southeast IL for much of the
upcoming work week. Temperatures should remain mild, with highs in
the 50s or 60s through midweek, and lows generally 40s or low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Timing of clearing over the forecast area during the early morning
hours the main forecast challenge. Backedge of cloud deck was just
southeast of Moline and tracking south-southeast at around 15 mph.
Based on this movement, PIA and BMI should clear around 09z-11z
and around 11z at CMI. If we do see some clearing take place in
these areas, there is enough boundary layer moisture around from
the recent rain and snow, combined with the light wind flow, some
fog may form around dawn. Confidence on that occurring at this
point still remains low enough to keep out of the TAFS. After that,
boundary layer winds become quite light as high pressure tracks
over the area and eventually to our east by afternoon. The
southward push to the cloud deck by later tomorrow morning and
afternoon has slowed considerably which may keep at least bkn cigs
in the 1500-2000 foot level at SPI and DEC.
As the next system tracks southeast into the lower Great Lakes
late tomorrow afternoon, the boundary layer flow becomes more
southerly, which may bring the clouds that pushed to our south
back over the area later in the afternoon. Confidence on that
scenario is low at this time but something to watch for later
forecasts. As a result, will hold on to the idea of mainly VFR
conditions over the northern TAF sites, and carry sct clouds over
SPI and DEC with bases around 2000-2500 feet in the afternoon.
Surface winds not much of a factor thru this forecast period with
winds light and variable overnight and then becoming light
southerly tomorrow with speeds of less than 10 kts. Look for
winds to back into the southeast tomorrow night at 7 to 12 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A DRY DAY TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES START WARMING AGAIN. A WARMER AND
WETTER PATTERN SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE ALL
THAT/S LEFT OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE THE RULE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITHIN AN HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT THEN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS WHICH PRODUCED HIGHS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY /MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS AND PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA AND
THROUGH WISCONSIN TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER
FORCING ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY HUG THE FREEZING LINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE
NORTH INITIALLY WHERE COULD SEE ALL SNOW FOR FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTS IN TO CHANGE TO A MIX. FOR AMOUNTS
GENERALLY WENT AROUND HALF AN INCH NORTH TO A DUSTING OR SO ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70. EXPECT PROFILES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES TO BE
TOO WARM TO ACCUMULATE MUCH.
UPPER RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY USED A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS WARMING EACH
DAY AND GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH
SUGGEST POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ALSO SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES CUT OFF
THIS SYSTEM OVER TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF...THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING
DRY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER EXCEPT
PERHAPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW AT BMG TO START OFF. AFTER
THAT...LAMP MOS ALSO SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR 12Z-
14Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR 16Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
22Z-23Z AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SO...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE REPORTING
SNOW...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS ARE STILL RECEIVING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER FRI 09Z. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW IS HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BASED THIS
FORCING WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. AS WARMER AIR HAS SLOWLY WORKED
ITS WAY NORTH...WENT RAIN/SNOW NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING MOST AREAS.
AFTER SUNSET SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...SO WENT A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION
THERE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH.
MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME FRIDAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PART OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS BOTH SHOWING
DECENT FORCING...WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH AND LOWER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ONCE AGAIN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WILL GO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTHWEST HALF AND SNOW NORTHEAST FOR NOW. KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO JUST A FEW TENTHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. /GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG THOUGH WITH ITS FORCING
COMPARED TO OTHERS AND IS SHOWING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THAT
HIGH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING SATURDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING DECREASES DURING THE DAY SO POPS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH
SUGGEST POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ALSO SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES CUT OFF
THIS SYSTEM OVER TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF...THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING
DRY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER EXCEPT
PERHAPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW AT BMG TO START OFF. AFTER
THAT...LAMP MOS ALSO SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR 12Z-
14Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR 16Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
22Z-23Z AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SO...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE REPORTING
SNOW...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS ARE STILL RECEIVING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER FRI 09Z. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW IS HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BASED THIS
FORCING WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. AS WARMER AIR HAS SLOWLY WORKED
ITS WAY NORTH...WENT RAIN/SNOW NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING MOST AREAS.
AFTER SUNSET SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...SO WENT A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION
THERE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH.
MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME FRIDAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PART OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS BOTH SHOWING
DECENT FORCING...WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH AND LOWER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ONCE AGAIN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WILL GO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTHWEST HALF AND SNOW NORTHEAST FOR NOW. KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO JUST A FEW TENTHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. /GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG THOUGH WITH ITS FORCING
COMPARED TO OTHERS AND IS SHOWING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THAT
HIGH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING SATURDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING DECREASES DURING THE DAY SO POPS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH
SUGGEST POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ALSO SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES CUT OFF
THIS SYSTEM OVER TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS SYSTEM CUTS OFF...THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING
DRY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER EXCEPT
PERHAPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW AT BMG TO START OFF. AFTER
THAT...LAMP MOS ALSO SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR 12Z-
14Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR 16Z-18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
22Z-23Z AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING WITH CLEARING WHERE RAP
SHOWS STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH
SOUTHERNLY GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER
OVER OUR CWA WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WE WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD SUPPORT 70F TEMPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IF THE FRONT HOLDS OF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION OVER THE
CWA WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH BUILDING
IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
MOIST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BL WILL RESULT IN STRATUS SPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. SREF/NAM ARE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR FOG...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING STILL SEEMS TO SUPPORT MAINLY A
STRATUS EVENT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AND I TRENDED
LOWS UP PARTICULARLY IN OUR EAST WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD
ON AS DRIER AIR IN THE BL BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH WEAK POCKETS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO BOTH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS IN SOUTHERLY BL FLOW...AND A VERY WARM AIR MASS
ADVECTING NORTH (HIGHS IN 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80F).
A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING GREATLY ON POSITION. NAM INDICATES
A WESTWARD MOVEMENT IN DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING
IN THE WEST AND STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOLUTION ALSO
LEADS TO MUCH HIGHER TDS IN OUR EAST...AND AS A RESULT HIGHER CAPE
AND WEAKER CINH. PARCELS WOULD TEND TO BE ELEVATED AND IF THE DRY
LINE DOES NOT BACK WESTWARD THE AIR MASS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN OUR CWA...WHICH IS THE
SUPPORTED SOLUTION OF GFS/ECMWF. EVEN IF NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES THE
DRY NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT I COULD SEE
ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. WITH THE NAM SOLUTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BASED ON ADJUSTED ML CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
RANGE IN OUR EAST AND GOOD SPEED SHEAR (0-6KM SHEER: 35-40
KT).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. 00Z GFS A LITTLE FASTER BUT MORE CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS
TO HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS WHICH I LIKE. STILL LOOKING FOR EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
EARLY TO MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY NOW
BEING ADVERTISED AS WELL SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO
LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IS THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY WE COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET (<20 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS
>25 MPH) GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREELEY COUNTY TO
GRAHAM COUNTY IN THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S (WEST TO EAST)LOOKS GOOD PER
850MB TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THUS A DRY FORECAST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT BOTH FROM THE WEST
AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU MAR 3 2016
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY A MIX OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS SSW 19AROUND 10KTS THRU 12Z-13Z THEN SHIFTING
WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS. BY 16Z-17Z NNW 15-25KTS THRU 02Z-03Z
SATURDAY THEN NNE AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER RH DOESNT APPEAR TO DROP TO 15 PERCENT...AND
EVEN THEN IT IS UNLIKELY WE WOULD REACH 3HR OF WIND/RH CRITERIA.
LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SUNDAY IN OUR WEST...HOWEVER ANY GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE TDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
A shortwave trough will move from Montana early this morning then
southeast across the Northern and Central Plains today. The upper
trough deepens as it moves over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Surface high pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes into
northeast Kansas will move off to the east as low pressure deepens
in the Western High Plains then moves east through the day along
with an associated cool frontal boundary. Pressure gradient will
tighten through the morning into the afternoon hours along with
mixing down stronger winds aloft will yield winds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. High clouds will also increase through the
day across central and eastern Kansas. RAP soundings show mixing
from 800mb-850 mb this afternoon across the area with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s expected. The frontal boundary is expected to
move southeast into the forecast area shifting the winds to the west
and northwest behind it. The front is forecast to extend from
southwest Iowa to near Council Grove then southwest to low pressure
over the Texas Panhandle early this evening. The front will move
through the remainder of northeast and east central Kansas through
the evening hours with high pressure building into the area
overnight. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
fall into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area with lows
in the upper 30s in east central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Dry and mild conditions are expected for Saturday as a weak mid-
level ridge will slide over the central U.S. with surface high
pressure over the region. Expect high temperatures to reach into the
low/mid 60s with model soundings showing very dry conditions in the
low/mid levels of the atmosphere. While minimum relative humidity
values in the afternoon will likely be in the low to upper 20
percent range (causing a heightened concern for fire weather), winds
are expected to be rather light throughout the day as they shift
from north to southeast.
The weather pattern will become more active beginning Saturday night
as the first of several embedded waves skims across the area. This
first embedded wave could bring some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday with another weak
embedded wave supporting the development of additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Sunday into
Monday models show a mid-level trough over the western U.S. quickly
advancing toward the central U.S., which will help to push an area
of surface low pressure into the High Plains region and significantly
increase the pressure gradient over the forecast area. As a result,
expect very breezy southerly winds on Sunday and Monday, which will
support good warm-air advection and high temperatures soaring into
the upper 60s to middle 70s by Monday. As the mid-level trough lifts
north of the area Monday night into Tuesday, it will help to push a
strong dryline toward central Kansas with a cold front moving
eastward across the forecast area Monday night. With these features
in place, models show a decent amount of instability setting up
across central Kansas (CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg) with 0-6km
bulk shear values of 25-35 kts. As a result, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible primarily across north central and central
Kansas late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. However, the main
limiting factor will be whether or not there is enough available
moisture in central Kansas to support thunderstorm development, as
the better moisture may be focused a bit further east.
As the mid-level trough advances toward the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday with the surface cold front pushing well east of the area,
expect predominantly dry conditions with the exception of far east
central Kansas that may continue to be clipped by some scattered
showers Tuesday through Wednesday as the cold front looks to stall
out along the Mississippi River. Mild conditions should persist
through the week with highs prevailing in the upper 50s to upper 60s
through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will advance into
the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday, supporting dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
VFR conditions are expected to persist. The latest RAP forecast
soundings have backed off on the boundary layer saturation and now
show surface moisture to be more shallow. With this in mind and
high clouds likely to continue streaming in from the west, think
chances for ground fog are to small to mention in the forecast at
this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
South winds increasing by afternoon into the 15 to 20 mph range with
gusts to around 30 mph expected. Afternoon relative humidity is
expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range and could even go a
bit lower especially if temperatures are higher than forecast and
drier air mixes down to the surface. Have gone a little lower with
afternoon dewpoints this afternoon across the area more toward the
RAP which has performed best lately. That said have expanded the Red
Flag Warning for the whole CWA this afternoon given winds, low RH
and dry fuels.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1119 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVER FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...BUT
WITH A FEW BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY PBL.
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
FROPA ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA LATE
IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ADVECT WARM/DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. RELATIVELY DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO
THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR EMPORIA TO Manhattan TO MARYSVILLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
SAT-SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
BUT SPEEDS MAY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
RESULTING IN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE COLUMN IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE
SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S. THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
EXIST. UNCERTAINTY GROWS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER
ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A FEW
MORE SUBTLE WAVES LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
VFR conditions are expected to persist. The latest RAP forecast
soundings have backed off on the boundary layer saturation and now
show surface moisture to be more shallow. With this in mind and
high clouds likely to continue streaming in from the west, think
chances for ground fog are to small to mention in the forecast at
this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A red flag warning will be issued for locations generally along
and west of a line from near Emporia to Marysville on Friday
afternoon. Gusty southwest winds with gusts to 30 mph will
combine with minimum afternoon relative humidities in the 20-25
percent range resulting in critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McGuire
LONG TERM...McGuire
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...McGuire
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE MID-WEST.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE DENSE FOG
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. WEAK ADVECTION AND CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR PRETTY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SKIRT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
DAWN...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AS
SOME TEMPORARY SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
SHALLOWS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP...AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT
AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL DECK IS POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY
ON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 0Z SUNDAY...AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIMITED QPF. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AMPLIFY IN
MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
MONDAY...AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
OR THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTEAD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SRLY FLOW...WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE MAKINGS
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CREATING ANOTHER
EPICENTER FOR HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY...TOWARD THE CWA.
THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS...GENERAL MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT SEEMS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHEERING OUT
WITH A DECENT LOSS OF FORCING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST POPS AND OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM QPF WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF LOCATIONS TO OUR WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES/DRIZZLE WILL
ALSO BE ON THE DEMISE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NOT RAISE BACK UP
INTO MVFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT
RETURNING UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
The main forecast concern in the short term is drizzle/rain chances
this morning then cloud trends/temperatures later today. A quick
moving clipper will brush the area Saturday morning, bringing a
chance of light rain.
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was quickly moving across
central Illinois and Indiana. Ahead of this feature, regional radar
mosaic showed light returns blossoming across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. A nearby RAP/HRRR sounding showed some loss of
ice saturation aloft with plenty of low level moisture. As a
result, several sites have been reporting drizzle or light rain.
Temperatures mostly were in the mid/upper 30s, having remained
mostly steady since last evening.
Plan on this upper wave and weak surface front to pass through the
forecast area this morning. Light precipitation, either drizzle or
light rain, will accompany it. HRRR, RAP and WRF hi-res models are
in good agreement showing this ending across our forecast area by
mid/late morning. A slightly drier air mass will try to erode some
of the clouds by afternoon, but the forecast thinking is that most
areas will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, especially along/east of
I-65. Some lucky folks west of I-65 may see some late day sun
breaking through. Plan on highs to range from the low/mid 40s across
the northern Bluegrass to the mid/upper 40s across south-central KY.
Quick on its heels is another northwest flow system that will arrive
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of its forcing and
saturation will stay north of the area. Areas most likely to see
some light rain showers, mainly Saturday morning, would be across
southeast Indiana into northern KY and into the Bluegrass region.
Despite the morning precipitation, temperatures should recover
nicely in the wake of that system, rising into the 50s region-wide
by afternoon. A few 60 degree readings are possible across south-
central KY, including Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
...Periods of Heavy Rain Likely Next Week...
The primary forecast concern in the long term is the unsettled
weather pattern that is likely to develop across the area mid to
late next week.
The synoptic pattern on Sunday is expected to feature upper level
ridging over the central Plains with a digging trough over the
western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is likely to be
sprawled out across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. Sunday is
shaping up to be a nice, seasonable day with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, warmest across south-central Kentucky. If there happens to
be enough of a late afternoon return flow, then highs may end up a
few degrees warmer, especially west of I-65.
From Monday into Tuesday, the aforementioned western trough advances
eastward, spinning up several surface lows over the central Plains.
Downstream ridging and a surface high anchored off the NC coast will
keep our area dry as the main axis of 850 mb moisture transport
stays well to the west. Plan on warmer temperatures as well with
daily highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll
have to contend with steady south breezes during the day, but winds
and gusts look to stay below advisory levels.
Wednesday through Friday...
No significant changes in the 04.00z model guidance as overall the
various data sets are in rather good agreement showing signs of a
heavy rain event for our area. By mid-week, a 500 mb closed low
spins across Texas and the Gulf Coast. This will pump anomalously
high moisture into the area. PWATS still peak above 1.5 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, which is significantly above normal
for early/mid March. Several waves to look ride along a stalled
surface front that may stretch along the southern MS River to lower
OH River Valleys. Moisture transport impinges on the area the
greatest late Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Overall, QPF and WPC guidance continues to trend higher. From late
Tuesday through Friday, 2-4 inches may fall across portions of
southern/southwest Indiana into western and west-central KY. The
remaining areas east of I-65 may still see 1-2+ as well. These
amounts are of course tentative and will adjust as the event nears.
These amounts may also not capture some local enhancements,
especially if convection ends up more widespread. Overall, a heavy
rain event resulting in flooding is possible mid/late next week.
How fast the upper level closed low moves across the deep south late
next week and into next weekend is a bit uncertain this far out, but
04.00z guidance points toward this feature lifting through the area
next weekend. This may bring additional rainfall, some of it heavy,
not necessarily captured in the potential amounts discussed above.
Overall, a very unsettled period beginning the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the morning hours today
as low clouds remain entrenched over the region. Currently we have
a few breaks in the IFR ahead of an approaching shortwave and sfc
trough. However, once this feature arrives, expect patchy drizzle
and flight conditions solidly in the low IFR range and even LIFR at
times between 8-14Z. Flight conditions will start to improve by mid
morning and through the afternoon hours with all TAF sites back to
MVFR by early afternoon and VFR by this evening.
Winds will remain on the light side and predominantly NW after the
sfc trough passes during the pre-dawn hrs.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA...BUT FOR EARLY MAR HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND NORMAL FROM NW CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE
RESULTING NW FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NAMERICA...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS OVER MT/SASKATCHEWAN. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING SE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LES
DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF NW UPPER MI ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BRUSHING
AREAS FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. FARTHER S...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE SOME SPOTS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO
ZERO...OTHERS ARE IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
DISSIPATING LOW PRES TROF AND MODERATING AIR MASS WILL BRING AN END
TO ANY LIGHT LES/FLURRIES AFFECTING THE FAR NE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN
MT/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF WAVE AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM SE
SASKATCHEWAN TO E CNTRL WI BY 12Z. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF FEATURE AND QPF...HAVE UTILIZED A SIMPLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR FCST. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WRN FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES SE ACROSS WI...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS. SO...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE ON TRACK
SHOWING HEAVIEST QPF IN A NW-SE STRIPE ACROSS WI. UTILIZING A 15/16
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WITH QPF ROUGHLY AROUND 0.05 N AND 0.2
ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER YIELDS SNOW AMOUNTS OF ROUGHLY AROUND 1 INCH
N AND 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. BEST CHC OF REACHING ADVY
CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES IN 12HRS IS IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. HELD
OFF ON ADVY SINCE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER QPF.
DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR A HEADLINE. FARTHER
E...850MB TEMPS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MI. ALTHOUGH DISPLACED FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING...SHALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE FAR N END OF THE LAKE MAY HELP BOOST SNOW
TOTALS A BIT INTO THE SE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS DRYING AND SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH NO
REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
30S FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT NOTHING LIKE
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT....RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER
FROM THEIR EVENING LOWS.
THE BEGINNING OF A CONSIDERABLE STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UP ON SUNDAY.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
THERE COULD BE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT ON TUESDAY
WITH ARRIVAL OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED
AND AGGRESSIVE PUSHING SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BRIEFLY DURING THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD...BUT ECMWF AND GEM OR NOT
NEARLY AS COLD. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW FLAKES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT THE MILDER SOLUTIONS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY.
MILD...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN PERSIST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRI
MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST LOCALLY TO AROUND 25KT EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER SE LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS SE
THRU WI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 20KT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN/EVENING...KEEPING WINDS
UNDER 20KT. SW WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP TO 15-25KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE E COAST AND LOW PRES TRACKS E ACROSS
CANADA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS MON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ON TUE
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER GULF OF ALASKA WITH HEIGHT RISES
INTO WESTERN CANADA. WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS SEEN IN
IR. CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH STRONG WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FLORIDA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS DRY LOWER LAYERS
WITH BASES AROUND 15K AND MINIMAL LIFT THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY WIND
SHIFT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLEARING SKIES WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S AS SKIES CLEAR. STRATUS WELL EAST
TODAY AND WILL NOT HAMPER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL. WINDS DIE
DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. VERY MILD/WARM AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE BENEATH THIS RIDGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND 60S TO
LOWER 70S SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD
LEAD TO WILDFIRE CONCERNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF HWY 83.
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP AID IN STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SFC DEW
POINTS RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83. A VERY
MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM MENTION
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM INDICATES BETWEEN 500 AND 800 J/KG OF COMPUTED
CAPE AND LI`S AROUND -3 AT H750MB. NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO OVERCOME THE CIN PRESENT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS AND DECIDED A
MENTION IS WARRANTED. IT IS A RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREA AT THIS
POINT...AND POPS CAN BE EXPANDED IF MODELS SHOW MORE AREAS FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. A SHARP DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS WOULD BE
THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STRONG OR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER
NORTH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...THE DRYLINE IS LESS DEFINED
AND LOW CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...SO
STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...MOISTURE WRAPPING WEST WITHIN AREA OF STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/RAIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CHANGE OR MIX THE
RAIN WITH WET SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
SYSTEM STILL SLATED TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
PRESENTING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL SOLN INDICATES MVFR CIGS WOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND A TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD WITH A LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND AT TIMES WILL GUST ABOVE 25 MPH.
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH SATURDAY HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES.
ON SUNDAY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECT WARMER AIR
FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE /RISING DEW POINT TEMPS/
ANTICIPATE MIN RH VALUES TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY /LOWEST AROUND 20
PERCENT. WHILE NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECT AT THIS TIME...IF THE
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT...SUNDAY
CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN/TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1117 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT...BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASING NEARLY 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL START TO CROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE REGION. SUSTAINED 10M WINDS OF 6-12KTS
WILL PROMOTE ADEQUATE MECHANICAL MIXING TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM DECOUPLING...WHICH WILL TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVER
THE SANDHILLS...NORTH CENTRAL...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
FOR TOMORROW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE A SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
REGION. 12Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING ACROSS THE CWA SUPPORT STRONG MIXING
TO AT LEAST 850MB DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 750MB. CURRENT WIND FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF
MIXING TO 850MB...HOWEVER...SHOULD MIXING TO 750MB OCCUR...WIND
GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY BE 5 TO 10KTS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WILL BE INCREASING
CIRRUS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY NORTH OF A NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2 LINE...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO GO AS WARM AS THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE (MAV).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
BEGINNING 00Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND. A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ALLOW FOR MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY NEAR 70S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR SUNDAY. THE ABNORMALLY WARM AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE SPREAD. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH
THE APPROACH OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE REGION SITS UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL
HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTH BACK INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SFC TD/S RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
LIES TO THE EAST OF THE FA. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS WOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. AT THIS
POINT...TEMPERATURES FAVOR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMIC
COOLING AND COOL AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
WAVE FOR A CHANGEOVER ACROSS OUR WEST. LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY THE FORECAST TRENDS DRY AND MILD AS A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA PRESENTS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
PRESENTING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL SOLN INDICATES MVFR CIGS WOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND A TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD WITH A LOW/TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND AT TIMES WILL GUST ABOVE 25 MPH.
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH SATURDAY HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES.
ON SUNDAY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECT WARMER AIR
FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE /RISING DEW POINT TEMPS/
ANTICIPATE MIN RH VALUES TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY /LOWEST AROUND 20
PERCENT. WHILE NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECT AT THIS TIME...IF THE
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT...SUNDAY
CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOLDAN
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM
CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT KBIS/KJMS...UNTIL 14Z.
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MVFR CIGS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY MID MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KISN/KBIS. KMOT AND KJMS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SOLID MVFR CIGS
FROM 15Z-22Z FRIDAY...WHILE KISN AND KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MVFR CIGS AND THUS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR
VFR CIGS. KDIK WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALL
TERMINALS VFR FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING
FOR NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
436 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. WEAK CLIPPER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 05Z...SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL ALLOW REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WHICH
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALL MODELS
SHOWING THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. CAN SEE THIS AREA OF SNOW ON RADAR
STRETCHING FROM AROUND CLEVELAND TO INDIANAPOLIS AT 05Z. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS...WITH
1-2 HOURS OF LIKELY OR HIGHER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 09Z FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO 15Z FOR THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY THINNING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS SO KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. ALSO ADDED SOME
DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST LAYER
IS GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 800MB BY THIS POINT PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINKING WE MAY ALREADY BE SEEING SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
IN AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...SO DID NOT GO TO AGGRESSIVE ON LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AS
THEY WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONE LAST AND RATHER VIGOROUS CLIPPER TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODELS AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...THERE ARE SOME
OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE CLIPPER AMPLITUDE AND TRACK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE NAM IS MILDER AND FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE
GFS IS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WV LOW LANDS...AND THE EURO
IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WV. WE LEAN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW LANDS. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...ALL MODELS INITIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO
MAINLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AS LOWER LEVELS WARM
UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT SNOW
TO A MIX WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER DURING
SATURDAY...BEING FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE TRACK. TEMPS WILL START
NEAR FREEZING EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WARM RATHER RAPIDLY INTO THE
40S WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE LOW.
THE LOW WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LANDS...PERHAPS
ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE
30S...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...RANGING FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LOCKED IN FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE E COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS MEANS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED WX CONFINED MORE TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WX OVER THAT AREA WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STORMS. BUT BEFORE THAT...THE AREA
WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW FROM LAST EVENING QUICKLY TAPERING OFF...BUT DO HAVE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH A WET GROUND IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A
GOOD SWATH OF IFR VISIBILITY WITH THIS FEATURE IN NORTHERN
OHIO...SO TIMED THAT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND 09Z TO
15Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS THINNING QUICKLY...SO FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. OTHER THAN SOME IFR
CLOUDS ACROSS NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LOOKING GENERALLY
AT MVFR CIGS...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/04/16
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M L M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
112 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. WEAK CLIPPER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 05Z...SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL ALLOW REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WHICH
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALL MODELS
SHOWING THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. CAN SEE THIS AREA OF SNOW ON RADAR
STRETCHING FROM AROUND CLEVELAND TO INDIANAPOLIS AT 05Z. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS...WITH
1-2 HOURS OF LIKELY OR HIGHER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 09Z FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO 15Z FOR THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY THINNING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS SO KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. ALSO ADDED SOME
DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST LAYER
IS GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 800MB BY THIS POINT PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINKING WE MAY ALREADY BE SEEING SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
IN AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...SO DID NOT GO TO AGGRESSIVE ON LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AS
THEY WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOLLOWS QUICKLY FOR SATURDAY...AND WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION IN TWO STAGES. THE FIRST WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OF THE LEADING WARM FRONT...A BRIEF LULL...AND THEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. ONCE
AGAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE AN ISSUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AS SNOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MINIMAL WARMING SHOULD
TRANSITION IT TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT...SNOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN HEADING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFICULTIES TAKES AWAY
FROM THE CONFIDENCE HERE A LITTLE BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PHASE
CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LOCKED IN FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE E COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS MEANS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED WX CONFINED MORE TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WX OVER THAT AREA WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STORMS. BUT BEFORE THAT...THE AREA
WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW FROM LAST EVENING QUICKLY TAPERING OFF...BUT DO HAVE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH A WET GROUND IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A
GOOD SWATH OF IFR VISIBILITY WITH THIS FEATURE IN NORTHERN
OHIO...SO TIMED THAT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND 09Z TO
15Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS THINNING QUICKLY...SO FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. OTHER THAN SOME IFR
CLOUDS ACROSS NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LOOKING GENERALLY
AT MVFR CIGS...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/04/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M M L L L M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M L M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M L L L M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M L M M L M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1239 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY. WEAK CLIPPER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 05Z...SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL ALLOW REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WHICH
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALL MODELS
SHOWING THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. CAN SEE THIS AREA OF SNOW ON RADAR
STRETCHING FROM AROUND CLEVELAND TO INDIANAPOLIS AT 05Z. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS...WITH
1-2 HOURS OF LIKELY OR HIGHER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 09Z FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO 15Z FOR THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY THINNING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS SO KEPT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. ALSO ADDED SOME
DRIZZLE FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST LAYER
IS GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 800MB BY THIS POINT PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINKING WE MAY ALREADY BE SEEING SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
IN AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...SO DID NOT GO TO AGGRESSIVE ON LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AS
THEY WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOLLOWS QUICKLY FOR SATURDAY...AND WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION IN TWO STAGES. THE FIRST WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OF THE LEADING WARM FRONT...A BRIEF LULL...AND THEN THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. ONCE
AGAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE AN ISSUE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AS SNOW FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MINIMAL WARMING SHOULD
TRANSITION IT TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT...SNOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN HEADING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFICULTIES TAKES AWAY
FROM THE CONFIDENCE HERE A LITTLE BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PHASE
CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LOCKED IN FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE E COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS MEANS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED WX CONFINED MORE TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WX OVER THAT AREA WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME STORMS. BUT BEFORE THAT...THE AREA
WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW FROM LAST EVENING QUICKLY TAPERING OFF...BUT DO HAVE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH A WET GROUND IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A
GOOD SWATH OF IFR VISIBILITY WITH THIS FEATURE IN NORTHERN
OHIO...SO TIMED THAT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA FROM AROUND 09Z TO
15Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS THINNING QUICKLY...SO FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. OTHER THAN SOME IFR
CLOUDS ACROSS NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LOOKING GENERALLY
AT MVFR CIGS...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/04/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ006>008-013>016-018-026-035-036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
245 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL PULL
EAST AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE NOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMALS STARTING
MONDAY AND LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
BANDS OF DEFORMATION-ENHANCED...LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY
FALLING TO BETWEEN 1-2SM WERE FORMING NEAR A QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT
THAT STRETCHED ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH VERY CLOSE TO INTERSTATE
80. THESE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWBANDS WERE OCCURRING WITHIN A
BROADER AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT COVERED MOST OF PENN EARLY
THIS MORNING.
MOST METAR SITES ACROSS CENTRAL PENN SHOWED VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS A VERY SLOW DECREASING TREND TO THE
SNOWFALL AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS
TODAY...WITH MOST PLACES LUCKY TO SEE ANOTHER ONE-HALF INCH OF
SNOW ACCUM /AND THAT WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ON THE COLDER- GRASSY
SURFACES/. A FEW SPOTS THAT GET CAUGHT WITHIN ONE OF THESE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION BANDS COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO BETWEEN
08-16Z.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF
PENN...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY EAST IN DIRECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
WEST-CENTRAL MTNS IN THE MORNING. LATES HRRR SHOWS THE VERY LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM KAOO...TO KUNV AND KIPT UNTIL
ABOUT 16-17Z. ACCUMS WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH - PROBABLY A DUSTING
TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ADDITIONAL. THAT SNOW AREA SHOULD
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE IN PLACE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS THRU VERY QUICKLY W-E. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN IN SOME OF THE
AREA IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE MID RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES...AND GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW AND CONVERGENCE...HAVE
BROUGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP FROM MDL TIMING OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW
SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME VERY LGT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME
ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK.
THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAFS THROUGH 05/06Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST MARCH 4 2016
BROAD AREA OF -SN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOCAL
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
AIRSPACE AROUND DAYBREAK/12Z. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE
MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR VIS AND LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF
THE AIRSPACE AS LOW CLOUDS GET TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK FOR
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT WITH MOST SPOTS VFR INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN/IFR SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
TUE...VFR. RAIN POSSIBLE TUE NGT WRN 1/3.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL PULL
EAST AND OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMALS STARTING
MONDAY AND LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
DISTINCT DRY SLOT ON RADAR SHOWING UP BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF VERY
MEAGER FORCING. WHAT SN IS OUT THERE IS REALLY LIGHT. TEMPS STILL
SLIGHTLY ABV FZG IN THE LOWER SUSQ - TOUGH TO GET IT TO STICK WHEN
THEY HAVE BEEN >32F ALL AFTN AND STILL INTO THE EVENING. THE DRY
AIR IS REALLY HAMPERING EFFORTS BY THE UPPER ATMOS TO SPREAD THE
SNOW INTO THE NERN MTNS AND POCONOS. KHGR IS DOWN TO 31F AND IT
HAS BEEN SNOWING LIGHTLY THERE FOR A WHILE. NARY A FLAKE HERE IN
HAPPY VALLEY. TRENDS OUT THERE NOW MATCH WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE BEEN PLAYING UP FOR A FEW RUNS. NEWEST NAM SNEAKING IN ALSO
MAKING VERY LITTLE SNOW FALL OVER A SWATH FROM SOMERSET TO
BERWICK. STILL LOOKING LIKE 1-2 A GOOD CALL OVERALL. JUST TWEAKING
THE NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE - CLOSE TO 1 - BETWEEN THE WC MTNS AND
THE FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE NC AND WC MTNS IN THE
MORNING. THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE IN PLACE AS UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU VERY QUICKLY W-E. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN IN
SOME OF THE AREA IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
PREV...
ANY LINGERING LGT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID AM ACROSS THE
AREA...AS MID LVL TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDL DATA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA...SO SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE MID RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES...AND GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW AND CONVERGENCE...HAVE
BROUGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP FROM MDL TIMING OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW
SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME VERY LGT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME
ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 12Z ECENS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT
INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK.
THIS COULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE STRONG WAA IT LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAFS THROUGH 05/06Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST MARCH 4 2016
BROAD AREA OF -SN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOCAL
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
AIRSPACE AROUND DAYBREAK/12Z. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE
MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR VIS AND LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST LONGER OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF
THE AIRSPACE AS LOW CLOUDS GET TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK FOR
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT WITH MOST SPOTS VFR INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN/IFR SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
TUE...VFR. RAIN POSSIBLE TUE NGT WRN 1/3.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
257 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE NOTED MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOCKED IN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING
UP NEAR THE RADAR SITE. EXPECT ANY MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE RATHER SHALLOW AND WOULD NOT SHOW UP ON RADAR WELL. THE LATEST
RAP INDICATES A TROUGH AT 850 MB THAT WILL KEEP
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOWEST 100-
200 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.4-
0.5 INCHES. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST OF THE LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
NEWFOUND GAP OBSERVATION AND IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
HAS COME TO AN END THERE. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE.
PW VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE QUARTER INCH RANGE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT WITH LOW PW
VALUES...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
MRX CWA...BUT THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE WAVE WILL BRUSH THROUGH JUST
TO OUR NORTH AND COULD EASILY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM
EXITS BY SUNDAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK ALLOWING FOR QUIET...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS BY MID WEEK SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT MODEL TREND IS TOWARD BRINGING IN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THIS BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL BEGIN TO BRING SHOWERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY WITH POPS AT
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 34 64 38 / 10 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 32 60 36 / 10 0 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 32 60 36 / 10 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 29 53 33 / 10 0 20 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
506 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...
WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ENDED...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS OVER FOR
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND UPPER VORT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF OHIO VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW DRY OUT THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT. WHILE THE HIRESW-ARW
SHOWED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
REGION. THE MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER SHALLOW ON MODELS INDICATING
SNOW FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
ISC GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO RISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING AND SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...
ONE FINAL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE AN
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE THE
CURRENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...THIS NEXT ONE WILL TAKE A TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...IS WEAKER...AND OVERALL HAS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY...850MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE THE CASE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR WV MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SW VA AND NW NC. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN. QPF IS ALSO LESS THAN THE CURRENT EVENT...MOST
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
1 INCH OR LESS WHERE IT SNOWS...WITH THE MOST EXPECTED IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. WITH 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY EDGING UPWARD TOWARD 0C DURING
THIS NEXT CLIPPER EVENT...AND THE INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH
SUN...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WEST TO
AROUND 50 IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...A BRIEF
SETBACK IS NOTED IN 850MB TEMPS...DROPPING BACK INTO THE -5C
RANGE. HOWEVER...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL IS AGAIN LIMITED AND
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD AGAIN YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST TO 50S
EAST...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 25-32F RANGE.
MONDAY BEGINS THE TREND TOWARD A COMPLETE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK. DEEP TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITH RIDGING AND A
CORRESPONDING SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES FROM THE CURRENT VALUES NEAR 552DM TO AROUND 582 DM BY MID
WEEK. 850MB TEMPS SURGE MONDAY FROM AROUND 0C AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY TO +12C BY 00Z TUE. WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER
EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...AND THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MUCH
OF THE WEEK SEEING TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH DEEP TROUGHING WESTERN U.S. AND UPPER RIDGING EASTERN
U.S. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SOME COMPARED WITH RECENT RUNS. THIS
IS ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL
GET...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING IT WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE THE
GFS ALLOWS IT TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY CHURNS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE ECMWF AGAIN MUCH SLOWER TO
BRING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN THE GFS. A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER CUTOFF LOW BY MONDAY.
FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY BE EXPECTED
BY MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO CONCERNS IN OUR CWA WILL BE AVOIDED...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...WE CAN
ANTICIPATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...BUT THAT APPEARS FROM ALL
ANGLES AT THIS POINT TO BE BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST...WITH RAIN MIXED IN AT DAN.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST WITH BETTER COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF LOWER VSBYS WITH
SNOW FROM 06-9Z...THEN MAINLY A FOG...LOW CLOUD SCENARIO WITH
MOIST LOW LVLS THROUGH MORNING. SHOULD SEE WINDS WORK AROUND TO
THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
TAF SITES OF ROA/LYH/DAN THEN GRADUALLY TO BCB BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE LWB/BLF STICK TO IFR EARLY THEN NUDGE TOWARD
2000-3000 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON UNDER BKN CIGS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1158 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SUNDAY. A LARGE
HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST THURSDAY...
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO WANE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. REGIONAL RADAR AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION ALONG THE SE COAST WILL HINDER MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE
AREA...SO MAINLY RELYING ON LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND UPPER VORT
MOVING ACROSS FOR SNOW. STILL THE MODELS HINTING AT BAND SETTING
UP IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH BOSTON NORTHEAST TOWARD
FARMVILLE...BUT THE HEAVIER BANDS LOOK TO BE JUST EAST...SO MAYBE
A 1-2 INCH MAX THERE ONCE IT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS...WITH SNOW STILL FALLING AT
MOST PLACES...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE BAND THAT SET UP EARLIER FROM SE WV TO AMHERST
PUT DOWN 2 TO 5 INCHES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG...AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEST
TO LOWER 30S EAST.
PREVIOUS EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION...
THIS BAND IS STARTING TO WANE SOMEWHAT AND THAT TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...HEAVIER BAND OF
SHOWERS WELL SOUTH OF US MAY STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...SO WHERE THIS LOW DEVELOPS EAST WILL IMPACT WHERE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY FORM. ATTM THAT LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF OUR SOUTHSIDE VA AREA...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE NEW RIVER VALLEY TO FAR SW
VA INTO PORTIONS OF NC MTNS MAY NOT GET MUCH AT ALL...1" OR LESS.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SOIL TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTING OF UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FEW OTHER FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE SNOW
AMOUNTS TOO.
AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN AND DEW POINTS
WILL COME UP. FOLLOWED THIS NON DIURNAL TREND TO ESTABLISH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORTED SNOW
FORMATION AT UPPER LEVELS BUT SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE EAST. THE EXCEPTION IS A BAND OF HIGHER QPF
POTENTIAL FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE QPF WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AND THE
DEEPENING LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT SNOWFALL RATES TO OVERCOME
MELTING. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE WITH THIS OUTCOME.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVEL BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHEAST COMPONENT BEFORE THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE SIMILAR WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THESE MODELS BRING ONE
BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA A FEW HOURS
LATER...THEN SHOWING AN AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW FROM
CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. IN GENERAL WILL FOLLOW THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY BUT NOT A WARNING. SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THE
TIMING...FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE
GETTING SNOW DURING FRIDAY MORNINGS PEAK TRAVEL TIME.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE.
UPPER JET ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROF THEN INTENSIFIES RESULTING IN
SOME STRONGER LIFT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AND SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
MAV VALUES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ALLOW ANY UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
TO SUBSIDE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AS ONE MORE CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS PIN ITS
ARRIVAL WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS CONSIDERABLY WEAK
WITH JUST A 1016 MB LOW. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE KEPT IN THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS EAST OF THE CWA. THE HIGHER
RIDGETOPS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NO HEADLINES
FOR WIND WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MINIMAL
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AS IT DEPARTS OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FOR SKIES TO FINALLY CLEAR ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY...IT WILL SEEM LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE FLIPPED A SWITCH FROM
WINTER TO SPRING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ANCHOR ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 580 DAM OVERHEAD. THESE
FACTORS WILL START A NOTEWORTHY WARMING TREND. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY COULD EASILY REACH THE 60S AND 70S. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW...BUT ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. EVENTUALLY...THE WARM
FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY REACH THE MID ATLANTIC TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST THURSDAY...
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST...WITH RAIN MIXED IN AT DAN.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST WITH BETTER COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF LOWER VSBYS WITH
SNOW FROM 06-9Z...THEN MAINLY A FOG...LOW CLOUD SCENARIO WITH
MOIST LOW LVLS THROUGH MORNING. SHOULD SEE WINDS WORK AROUND TO
THE NW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
TAF SITES OF ROA/LYH/DAN THEN GRADUALLY TO BCB BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE LWB/BLF STICK TO IFR EARLY THEN NUDGE TOWARD
2000-3000 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON UNDER BKN CIGS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018-019.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND THEN
HEAVY FOR A TIME THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN. SHOWERS DECREASE MONDAY. DRY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:01 AM PST FRIDAY...WERE ALL WAITING FOR THE
MAIN RAIN EVENT WHICH WONT SHOW UP UNTIL SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN
TIME RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HRRR
AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RAINS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART ANY
RAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND MONTEREY.
SATURDAY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND STEADY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. MAIN UPDATE
WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO SACRAMENTO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HILLS. AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL DRAG DOWN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IMPACTS SHOULD INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ASSOCIATED ISSUES SUCH AS
DOWNED POWER LINES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH SOME HEAVY
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL END OVER
THE BAY AREA AROUND 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE COLD AND
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND SOME BLUSTERY ONSHORE WINDS.
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPLIT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION.
SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY BUT THEN DRYING BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 OR 3 MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING FOR WEEK OF MARCH 14TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 AM PST FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL USHER IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS... REDUCED VISIBILITY... AND MVFR TO VLIFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY PRIMARILY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTH BEGINNING ABOUT 24
HOURS OUT FROM NOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
STRENGTHEN FURTHER 24-36 HOURS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER RAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS. BRIEF CLEARING
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER 18Z... BUT CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER
ANY CLEARING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LIGHT...MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VLIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING.... THEN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:16 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY STAGGERS SOUTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY... SQUARED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BEACHES... A LARGE... MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO REGIONAL BEACHES
BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY SUNDAY... SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 20 FEET
DEPENDING ON LOCATION WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST FACING BEACHES WILL FEEL THE BRUNT
OF THIS SWELL TRAIN... WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SHORE
BREAK... AND SNEAKER WAVES POSSIBLE. A COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AND HIGH TIDE MAY ALSO LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. REMEMBER... NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE
OVERWHELMING POWER OF THE OCEAN... SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN
SWEPT OUT TO SEA THIS SEASON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
BEACHES: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
420 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL
BRING SUBSTANTIAL VALLEY AND FOOTHILL RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...BREEZY
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS REGARDING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE TAPPING INTO AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
WHICH EXTENDS WELL WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MAINLY NORTH OF VISALIA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HOWEVER
THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY
WHERE SURFACE CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 500 J/KG. THE
HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE HRRR INDICATE ISOLATED STRONG
CELLS FORMING NEAR THE MERCED AREA BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY EAST. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE NEXT...AND MOST POWERFUL...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IMPACTING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY AND PEAK RIGHT BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...HEAVY VALLEY AND FOOTHILL RAIN AS
WELL AS MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE VALLEY WILL SEE GENERALLY
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN. THE FOOTHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE THE
MOUNTAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW. LASTLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON A SIDE NOTE...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A SIX HOUR PERIOD IS INDICATING 100% PROBABILITY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE REGION...FROM URBAN FLOODING TO FLASH FLOODING NEAR
BURN SCARS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
THE THIRD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE FOOTHILLS
RECEIVING BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO MUCH COOLER AIR...DROPPING SNOW LEVELS
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3,000 TO
4,000 FEET WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES ABOVE
6,000 FEET AND 2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE AROUND 4,000 FEET. A DUSTING
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 3,000 FEET.
ONCE AGAIN...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON THIS RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIST THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY...THEN LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS....AREAS IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
CAZ093-094-096-097.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096-097.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
401 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND THEN
HEAVY FOR A TIME THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN. SHOWERS DECREASE MONDAY. DRY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:01 AM PST FRIDAY...WERE ALL WAITING FOR THE
MAIN RAIN EVENT WHICH WONT SHOW UP UNTIL SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN
TIME RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HRRR
AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RAINS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART ANY
RAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND MONTEREY.
SATURDAY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND STEADY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. MAIN UPDATE
WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO SACRAMENTO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HILLS. AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL DRAG DOWN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IMPACTS SHOULD INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ASSOCIATED ISSUES SUCH AS
DOWNED POWER LINES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH SOME HEAVY
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL END OVER
THE BAY AREA AROUND 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE COLD AND
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND SOME BLUSTERY ONSHORE WINDS.
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPLIT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION.
SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY BUT THEN DRYING BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 OR 3 MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING FOR WEEK OF MARCH 14TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY MVFR BUT OCCASIONALLY IFR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY
FROM MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS
LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS...OCCASIONALLY IFR EARLY
IN PERIOD. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:38 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY STAGGERS SOUTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY... SQUARED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1040 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MUCH OF THE LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY A COATING TO AN INCH...HAS
BEEN ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH MAINLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOLAR RADIATION FROM EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION ON PRIMARY ROADS. SOME SHELTERED
SECONDARY ROADS COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
THEM TO STAY MAINLY WET AS WELL.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF
14Z...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
READINGS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ARE FORECAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES ENE OF
CAPE HATTERAS NC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THOUGH THE DAY AND
PASS SE OF THE BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT.
THE BEST LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SNOW DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR EFFECTIVELY SHUTS OFF
ANY LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES FOR MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL DROP
AS LOW AS 1SM...AND CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 18Z.
VFR EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOP AROUND 15 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS.
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 19-20Z. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE SUB-VFR IN -SHSN.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE WATERS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWEAKING THE END TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TO MATCH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS
ALREADY POSTED.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
936 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MUCH OF THE LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY A COATING TO AN INCH...HAS
BEEN ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH MAINLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOLAR RADIATION FROM EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION ON PRIMARY ROADS. SOME SHELTERED
SECONDARY ROADS COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
THEM TO STAY MAINLY WET AS WELL.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF
14Z...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
READINGS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ARE FORECAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES ENE OF
CAPE HATTERAS NC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THOUGH THE DAY AND
PASS SE OF THE BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT.
THE BEST LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SNOW DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR EFFECTIVELY SHUTS OFF
ANY LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE DURATION...GENERALLY WITH MVFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH IFR AT TIMES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. VSBYS MAY
VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES FOR CSTL AIRPORTS.
ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND.
NE WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND STRONGEST WINDS...HIGHEST GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AROUND AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UP TO AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AROUND AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE SUB-VFR IN -SHSN.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE WATERS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TWEAKING THE END TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TO MATCH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS
ALREADY POSTED.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...DS/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
High pressure will progress across IL today from NW to SE. Dry air
flowing into the area on N-NE winds will bring some clearing to our
forecast area northeast of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Mattoon.
Mixing of dry air from the mid-levels could provide some peeks of
sun farther south than that, but mostly cloudy conditions are
generally expected from Springfield to Effingham to Lawrenceville.
As the surface ridge axis moves into Indiana this afternoon, winds
will become southerly from west to east, helping start a return
flow of clouds and moisture northward. That southerly flow will
also help our southwestern areas warm a little more than
elsewhere, with highs in the upper 40s toward Jacksonville.
Northeast areas will on the lower end of our temp range today,
with around 40 for highs near Danville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Forecast has taken another turn for tonight with the chances for
precip returning as the last wave dives into the Midwest under
northwesterly flow. Precip chances are better in the north, but the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF and the 4km WRF are all persisting in some activity
tonight for most of Central Illinois before dawn. Saturday and
Sunday are remaining dry, with highs into the 50s for Sunday as the
ridge over the western CONUS shifts all the warm air into the
Midwest. Warm up really takes hold by Monday with temps soaring into
the 60s, but is accompanied by a return to a wet forecast with pops
creeping back in. The warm up is accompanied by a pattern shift to a
more active southwesterly flow as a large wave of energy digs into
the southwestern CONUS. A series of small waves ejecting out of the
swrn low will bring a rather wet forecast to next week, riding along
a developing baroclinic zone draped over the Ohio River Valley.
Changes in the forecast through the week, in particular the end of
the week will center around northerly extent of the precip.
For now, however, next week is dominated by rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Advancing high pressure has helped clearing progress from
northern IL into central IL over the last few hours. VFR skies
have developed at PIA, BMI, and CMI. Satellite loops and the
latest HRRR model show the clearing should progress to over the
southern TAF sites of SPI and DEC in a couple hours, then stall
out just to the south of SPI to Effingham.
Once the surface ridge axis moves east into Indiana, boundary
layer winds will shift from NE to SSE. That will cause the clouds
to begin a return northward for tonight, as a cold front reaches
IL. A few light rain or snow showers may develop at the northern
terminal sites of PIA, BMI and CMI this evening. No snow
accumulation is expected, with any precipitation being very light.
The warm ground would likely melt any light snow that does fall.
Cloud heights appear to remain VFR this evening as the clouds
return, but MVFR conditions will be possible during any precip.
Late tonight, winds will shift to the NW behind the cold front,
and increase to 10-12kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
A shortwave trough will move from Montana early this morning then
southeast across the Northern and Central Plains today. The upper
trough deepens as it moves over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Surface high pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes into
northeast Kansas will move off to the east as low pressure deepens
in the Western High Plains then moves east through the day along
with an associated cool frontal boundary. Pressure gradient will
tighten through the morning into the afternoon hours along with
mixing down stronger winds aloft will yield winds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. High clouds will also increase through the
day across central and eastern Kansas. RAP soundings show mixing
from 800mb-850 mb this afternoon across the area with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s expected. The frontal boundary is expected to
move southeast into the forecast area shifting the winds to the west
and northwest behind it. The front is forecast to extend from
southwest Iowa to near Council Grove then southwest to low pressure
over the Texas Panhandle early this evening. The front will move
through the remainder of northeast and east central Kansas through
the evening hours with high pressure building into the area
overnight. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
fall into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area with lows
in the upper 30s in east central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Dry and mild conditions are expected for Saturday as a weak mid-
level ridge will slide over the central U.S. with surface high
pressure over the region. Expect high temperatures to reach into the
low/mid 60s with model soundings showing very dry conditions in the
low/mid levels of the atmosphere. While minimum relative humidity
values in the afternoon will likely be in the low to upper 20
percent range (causing a heightened concern for fire weather), winds
are expected to be rather light throughout the day as they shift
from north to southeast.
The weather pattern will become more active beginning Saturday night
as the first of several embedded waves skims across the area. This
first embedded wave could bring some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday with another weak
embedded wave supporting the development of additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Sunday into
Monday models show a mid-level trough over the western U.S. quickly
advancing toward the central U.S., which will help to push an area
of surface low pressure into the High Plains region and significantly
increase the pressure gradient over the forecast area. As a result,
expect very breezy southerly winds on Sunday and Monday, which will
support good warm-air advection and high temperatures soaring into
the upper 60s to middle 70s by Monday. As the mid-level trough lifts
north of the area Monday night into Tuesday, it will help to push a
strong dryline toward central Kansas with a cold front moving
eastward across the forecast area Monday night. With these features
in place, models show a decent amount of instability setting up
across central Kansas (CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg) with 0-6km
bulk shear values of 25-35 kts. As a result, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible primarily across north central and central
Kansas late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. However, the main
limiting factor will be whether or not there is enough available
moisture in central Kansas to support thunderstorm development, as
the better moisture may be focused a bit further east.
As the mid-level trough advances toward the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday with the surface cold front pushing well east of the area,
expect predominantly dry conditions with the exception of far east
central Kansas that may continue to be clipped by some scattered
showers Tuesday through Wednesday as the cold front looks to stall
out along the Mississippi River. Mild conditions should persist
through the week with highs prevailing in the upper 50s to upper 60s
through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will advance into
the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday, supporting dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. The main concern
will be winds today as they increase in the 16Z-18Z period from
the south and southwest to around 16 kts with gusts to 25 kts by
18Z. A frontal boundary will shift the winds at MHK to the
northwest by 23Z at to the west at TOP and FOE around 00Z-02Z.
Winds decrease to less than 10 kts by 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
South winds increasing by afternoon into the 15 to 20 mph range with
gusts to around 30 mph expected. Afternoon relative humidity is
expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range and could even go a
bit lower especially if temperatures are higher than forecast and
drier air mixes down to the surface. Have gone a little lower with
afternoon dewpoints this afternoon across the area more toward the
RAP which has performed best lately. That said have expanded the Red
Flag Warning for the whole CWA this afternoon given winds, low RH
and dry fuels.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
412 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING WITH CLEARING WHERE RAP
SHOWS STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH
SOUTHERNLY GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER
OVER OUR CWA WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WE WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD SUPPORT 70F TEMPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IF THE FRONT HOLDS OF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION OVER THE
CWA WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH BUILDING
IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
MOIST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BL WILL RESULT IN STRATUS SPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. SREF/NAM ARE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR FOG...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING STILL SEEMS TO SUPPORT MAINLY A
STRATUS EVENT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AND I TRENDED
LOWS UP PARTICULARLY IN OUR EAST WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD
ON AS DRIER AIR IN THE BL BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH WEAK POCKETS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO BOTH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS IN SOUTHERLY BL FLOW...AND A VERY WARM AIR MASS
ADVECTING NORTH (HIGHS IN 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80F).
A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING GREATLY ON POSITION. NAM INDICATES
A WESTWARD MOVEMENT IN DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING
IN THE WEST AND STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOLUTION ALSO
LEADS TO MUCH HIGHER TDS IN OUR EAST...AND AS A RESULT HIGHER CAPE
AND WEAKER CINH. PARCELS WOULD TEND TO BE ELEVATED AND IF THE DRY
LINE DOES NOT BACK WESTWARD THE AIR MASS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN OUR CWA...WHICH IS THE
SUPPORTED SOLUTION OF GFS/ECMWF. EVEN IF NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES THE
DRY NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT I COULD SEE
ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. WITH THE NAM SOLUTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BASED ON ADJUSTED ML CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
RANGE IN OUR EAST AND GOOD SPEED SHEAR (0-6KM SHEER: 35-40
KT).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. 00Z GFS A LITTLE FASTER BUT MORE CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS
TO HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS WHICH I LIKE. STILL LOOKING FOR EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
EARLY TO MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY NOW
BEING ADVERTISED AS WELL SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO
LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IS THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY WE COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET (<20 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS
>25 MPH) GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREELEY COUNTY TO
GRAHAM COUNTY IN THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S (WEST TO EAST)LOOKS GOOD PER
850MB TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THUS A DRY FORECAST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT BOTH FROM THE WEST
AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTH AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...INCREASING BY
MIDDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 30KT A BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REDEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS
VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER RH DOESNT APPEAR TO DROP TO 15 PERCENT...AND
EVEN THEN IT IS UNLIKELY WE WOULD REACH 3HR OF WIND/RH CRITERIA.
LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SUNDAY IN OUR WEST...HOWEVER ANY GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE TDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1104 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS STILL MOVING SE
THROUGH OUR AREA AS OF 11AM...REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THIS BAND SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
SOME PASSING FLURRIES/DRIZZLE ARE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CREPT UP A DEGREE OR SO. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AND
FOG CONTINUING THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE MID-WEST.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE DENSE FOG
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. WEAK ADVECTION AND CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR PRETTY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SKIRT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
DAWN...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AS
SOME TEMPORARY SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
SHALLOWS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP...AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT
AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL DECK IS POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY
ON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 0Z SUNDAY...AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIMITED QPF. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AMPLIFY IN
MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
MONDAY...AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
OR THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTEAD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SRLY FLOW...WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE MAKINGS
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CREATING ANOTHER
EPICENTER FOR HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY...TOWARD THE CWA.
THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS...GENERAL MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT SEEMS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHEERING OUT
WITH A DECENT LOSS OF FORCING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST POPS AND OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM QPF WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF LOCATIONS TO OUR WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME PASSING FLURRIES WILL KEEP LIFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. AT JKL...SYM...AND
SJS...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS AT TIMES. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RAISE UP TO VFR AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1048 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1045 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Ongoing forecast pretty much on track. Ceilings are starting to rise
across the north as depth of the moisture thins. That area still may
see breaks in clouds by the end of the afternoon. Only subtle
adjustment was for temperatures down south, to drop them a degree or
two. Also wanted to remove the morning drizzle wording, as those
higher clouds take that moisture away from the surface.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
The main forecast concern in the short term is drizzle/rain chances
this morning then cloud trends/temperatures later today. A quick
moving clipper will brush the area Saturday morning, bringing a
chance of light rain.
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was quickly moving across
central Illinois and Indiana. Ahead of this feature, regional radar
mosaic showed light returns blossoming across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. A nearby RAP/HRRR sounding showed some loss of
ice saturation aloft with plenty of low level moisture. As a result,
several sites have been reporting drizzle or light rain.
Temperatures mostly were in the mid/upper 30s, having remained
mostly steady since last evening.
Plan on this upper wave and weak surface front to pass through the
forecast area this morning. Light precipitation, either drizzle or
light rain, will accompany it. HRRR, RAP and WRF hi-res models are
in good agreement showing this ending across our forecast area by
mid/late morning. A slightly drier air mass will try to erode some
of the clouds by afternoon, but the forecast thinking is that most
areas will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, especially along/east of
I-65. Some lucky folks west of I-65 may see some late day sun
breaking through. Plan on highs to range from the low/mid 40s across
the northern Bluegrass to the mid/upper 40s across south-central KY.
Quick on its heels is another northwest flow system that will arrive
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of its forcing and
saturation will stay north of the area. Areas most likely to see
some light rain showers, mainly Saturday morning, would be across
southeast Indiana into northern KY and into the Bluegrass region.
Despite the morning precipitation, temperatures should recover
nicely in the wake of that system, rising into the 50s region-wide
by afternoon. A few 60 degree readings are possible across south-
central KY, including Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
...Periods of Heavy Rain Likely Next Week...
The primary forecast concern in the long term is the unsettled
weather pattern that is likely to develop across the area mid to
late next week.
The synoptic pattern on Sunday is expected to feature upper level
ridging over the central Plains with a digging trough over the
western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is likely to be
sprawled out across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. Sunday is
shaping up to be a nice, seasonable day with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, warmest across south-central Kentucky. If there happens to
be enough of a late afternoon return flow, then highs may end up a
few degrees warmer, especially west of I-65.
From Monday into Tuesday, the aforementioned western trough advances
eastward, spinning up several surface lows over the central Plains.
Downstream ridging and a surface high anchored off the NC coast will
keep our area dry as the main axis of 850 mb moisture transport
stays well to the west. Plan on warmer temperatures as well with
daily highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll
have to contend with steady south breezes during the day, but winds
and gusts look to stay below advisory levels.
Wednesday through Friday...
No significant changes in the 04.00z model guidance as overall the
various data sets are in rather good agreement showing signs of a
heavy rain event for our area. By mid-week, a 500 mb closed low
spins across Texas and the Gulf Coast. This will pump anomalously
high moisture into the area. PWATS still peak above 1.5 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, which is significantly above normal
for early/mid March. Several waves to look ride along a stalled
surface front that may stretch along the southern MS River to lower
OH River Valleys. Moisture transport impinges on the area the
greatest late Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Overall, QPF and WPC guidance continues to trend higher. From late
Tuesday through Friday, 2-4 inches may fall across portions of
southern/southwest Indiana into western and west-central KY. The
remaining areas east of I-65 may still see 1-2+ as well. These
amounts are of course tentative and will adjust as the event nears.
These amounts may also not capture some local enhancements,
especially if convection ends up more widespread. Overall, a heavy
rain event resulting in flooding is possible mid/late next week.
How fast the upper level closed low moves across the deep south late
next week and into next weekend is a bit uncertain this far out, but
04.00z guidance points toward this feature lifting through the area
next weekend. This may bring additional rainfall, some of it heavy,
not necessarily captured in the potential amounts discussed above.
Overall, a very unsettled period beginning the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 610 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the morning hours today
as low clouds remain entrenched over the region. Expect patchy
drizzle and flight conditions solidly in the low IFR range and even
LIFR at times before 14Z. Flight conditions will start to improve
by mid morning and through the afternoon hours with all TAF sites
back to MVFR by early afternoon and VFR by this evening.
Winds will remain on the light side and predominantly NW today.
Another weather system will bring light precipitation chances to SDF
near the end of this TAF period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
SOME PASSING FLURRIES/DRIZZLE ARE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CREPT UP A DEGREE OR SO. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AND
FOG CONTINUING THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE MID-WEST.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE DENSE FOG
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. WEAK ADVECTION AND CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR PRETTY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SKIRT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
DAWN...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AS
SOME TEMPORARY SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
SHALLOWS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP...AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT
AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL DECK IS POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY
ON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 0Z SUNDAY...AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIMITED QPF. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AMPLIFY IN
MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
MONDAY...AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
OR THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTEAD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SRLY FLOW...WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE MAKINGS
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CREATING ANOTHER
EPICENTER FOR HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY...TOWARD THE CWA.
THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS...GENERAL MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT SEEMS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHEERING OUT
WITH A DECENT LOSS OF FORCING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST POPS AND OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM QPF WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF LOCATIONS TO OUR WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME PASSING FLURRIES WILL KEEP LIFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. AT JKL...SYM...AND
SJS...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS AT TIMES. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RAISE UP TO VFR AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
549 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
For aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
High pressure will drift southeast into the OH Valley today.
Biggest question will be if and when low clouds will finally clear
out....esp along/east of the MS River. Western edge of clouds
continues to be nearly stationary, so will plat it pessimistic
for now and keep clouds in most of the day. This will help hold
sfc temps in the 40s.
A clipper type low will drop southeast from Canada into the Great
Lakes and upper OH Valley on Saturday, but precip associated with
that low is still expected to remain n/e of our region. Good news
is that high pressure will quickly take over Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, and should bring a return to sunshine and milder
temperatures for the weekend. Breezy conditions behind the sfc
low on Saturday will be replaced by more tranquil conditions
Saturday night into Sunday as the sfc high moves across the Ohio
Valley region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Quiet and unseasonably warm conditions are expected Monday. By
Monday night, the beginning of a very prolonged wet pattern will
begin. Models are in good agreement showing a surface low centered
over south central Nebraska/northwest Kansas at 00z Tuesday, moving
just north of the Great Lakes by 00z Wednesday. As the associated
cold front moves toward the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River
valleys, shower chances will gradually increase from west to east
Monday night through Tuesday night. Showers will spread across
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far west Kentucky
Monday night, and across the rest of the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. Models are also in good agreement showing more significant
rainfall beginning in southeast Missouri Tuesday afternoon,
spreading east Tuesday night. The cold front hangs up over our
region through Thursday as another area of low pressure develops
along the front in Texas, which will keep widespread showers across
the region.
Models vary somewhat in the location of the axis of heaviest
rainfall, but generally it looks like the highest rainfall amounts
will be from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far west
Kentucky. Right now GFS and ECMWF show amounts in the 4 to 6 inch
range for the Monday night through Thursday time frame. Models show
best instability over southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, but
overall instability is not too impressive anywhere. Went ahead and
included some chances of thunderstorm, but main concern will be
rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Low clouds will be very stubborn to exit the region today. Cigs
will rise to 1k-3k FT this morning, and may persist most of the
daylight hours. Skies may clear this evening, but VFR cigs may
return with the approach of another frontal system around 06z Sat.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
549 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
For aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
High pressure will drift southeast into the OH Valley today.
Biggest question will be if and when low clouds will finally clear
out....esp along/east of the MS River. Western edge of clouds
continues to be nearly stationary, so will plat it pessimistic
for now and keep clouds in most of the day. This will help hold
sfc temps in the 40s.
A clipper type low will drop southeast from Canada into the Great
Lakes and upper OH Valley on Saturday, but precip associated with
that low is still expected to remain n/e of our region. Good news
is that high pressure will quickly take over Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, and should bring a return to sunshine and milder
temperatures for the weekend. Breezy conditions behind the sfc
low on Saturday will be replaced by more tranquil conditions
Saturday night into Sunday as the sfc high moves across the Ohio
Valley region.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Quiet and unseasonably warm conditions are expected Monday. By
Monday night, the beginning of a very prolonged wet pattern will
begin. Models are in good agreement showing a surface low centered
over south central Nebraska/northwest Kansas at 00z Tuesday, moving
just north of the Great Lakes by 00z Wednesday. As the associated
cold front moves toward the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River
valleys, shower chances will gradually increase from west to east
Monday night through Tuesday night. Showers will spread across
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far west Kentucky
Monday night, and across the rest of the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. Models are also in good agreement showing more significant
rainfall beginning in southeast Missouri Tuesday afternoon,
spreading east Tuesday night. The cold front hangs up over our
region through Thursday as another area of low pressure develops
along the front in Texas, which will keep widespread showers across
the region.
Models vary somewhat in the location of the axis of heaviest
rainfall, but generally it looks like the highest rainfall amounts
will be from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far west
Kentucky. Right now GFS and ECMWF show amounts in the 4 to 6 inch
range for the Monday night through Thursday time frame. Models show
best instability over southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, but
overall instability is not too impressive anywhere. Went ahead and
included some chances of thunderstorm, but main concern will be
rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Low clouds will be very stubborn to exit the region today. Cigs
will rise to 1k-3k FT this morning, and may persist most of the
daylight hours. Skies may clear this evening, but VFR cigs may
return with the approach of another frontal system around 06z Sat.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
616 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
The main forecast concern in the short term is drizzle/rain chances
this morning then cloud trends/temperatures later today. A quick
moving clipper will brush the area Saturday morning, bringing a
chance of light rain.
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was quickly moving across
central Illinois and Indiana. Ahead of this feature, regional radar
mosaic showed light returns blossoming across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. A nearby RAP/HRRR sounding showed some loss of
ice saturation aloft with plenty of low level moisture. As a result,
several sites have been reporting drizzle or light rain.
Temperatures mostly were in the mid/upper 30s, having remained
mostly steady since last evening.
Plan on this upper wave and weak surface front to pass through the
forecast area this morning. Light precipitation, either drizzle or
light rain, will accompany it. HRRR, RAP and WRF hi-res models are
in good agreement showing this ending across our forecast area by
mid/late morning. A slightly drier air mass will try to erode some
of the clouds by afternoon, but the forecast thinking is that most
areas will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, especially along/east of
I-65. Some lucky folks west of I-65 may see some late day sun
breaking through. Plan on highs to range from the low/mid 40s across
the northern Bluegrass to the mid/upper 40s across south-central KY.
Quick on its heels is another northwest flow system that will arrive
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of its forcing and
saturation will stay north of the area. Areas most likely to see
some light rain showers, mainly Saturday morning, would be across
southeast Indiana into northern KY and into the Bluegrass region.
Despite the morning precipitation, temperatures should recover
nicely in the wake of that system, rising into the 50s region-wide
by afternoon. A few 60 degree readings are possible across south-
central KY, including Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
...Periods of Heavy Rain Likely Next Week...
The primary forecast concern in the long term is the unsettled
weather pattern that is likely to develop across the area mid to
late next week.
The synoptic pattern on Sunday is expected to feature upper level
ridging over the central Plains with a digging trough over the
western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is likely to be
sprawled out across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. Sunday is
shaping up to be a nice, seasonable day with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, warmest across south-central Kentucky. If there happens to
be enough of a late afternoon return flow, then highs may end up a
few degrees warmer, especially west of I-65.
From Monday into Tuesday, the aforementioned western trough advances
eastward, spinning up several surface lows over the central Plains.
Downstream ridging and a surface high anchored off the NC coast will
keep our area dry as the main axis of 850 mb moisture transport
stays well to the west. Plan on warmer temperatures as well with
daily highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll
have to contend with steady south breezes during the day, but winds
and gusts look to stay below advisory levels.
Wednesday through Friday...
No significant changes in the 04.00z model guidance as overall the
various data sets are in rather good agreement showing signs of a
heavy rain event for our area. By mid-week, a 500 mb closed low
spins across Texas and the Gulf Coast. This will pump anomalously
high moisture into the area. PWATS still peak above 1.5 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, which is significantly above normal
for early/mid March. Several waves to look ride along a stalled
surface front that may stretch along the southern MS River to lower
OH River Valleys. Moisture transport impinges on the area the
greatest late Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Overall, QPF and WPC guidance continues to trend higher. From late
Tuesday through Friday, 2-4 inches may fall across portions of
southern/southwest Indiana into western and west-central KY. The
remaining areas east of I-65 may still see 1-2+ as well. These
amounts are of course tentative and will adjust as the event nears.
These amounts may also not capture some local enhancements,
especially if convection ends up more widespread. Overall, a heavy
rain event resulting in flooding is possible mid/late next week.
How fast the upper level closed low moves across the deep south late
next week and into next weekend is a bit uncertain this far out, but
04.00z guidance points toward this feature lifting through the area
next weekend. This may bring additional rainfall, some of it heavy,
not necessarily captured in the potential amounts discussed above.
Overall, a very unsettled period beginning the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 610 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the morning hours today
as low clouds remain entrenched over the region. Expect patchy
drizzle and flight conditions solidly in the low IFR range and even
LIFR at times before 14Z. Flight conditions will start to improve
by mid morning and through the afternoon hours with all TAF sites
back to MVFR by early afternoon and VFR by this evening.
Winds will remain on the light side and predominantly NW today.
Another weather system will bring light precipitation chances to SDF
near the end of this TAF period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
629 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA...BUT FOR EARLY MAR HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND NORMAL FROM NW CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE
RESULTING NW FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NAMERICA...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS OVER MT/SASKATCHEWAN. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING SE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LES
DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF NW UPPER MI ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BRUSHING
AREAS FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. FARTHER S...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE SOME SPOTS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO
ZERO...OTHERS ARE IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
DISSIPATING LOW PRES TROF AND MODERATING AIR MASS WILL BRING AN END
TO ANY LIGHT LES/FLURRIES AFFECTING THE FAR NE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN
MT/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF WAVE AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM SE
SASKATCHEWAN TO E CNTRL WI BY 12Z. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF FEATURE AND QPF...HAVE UTILIZED A SIMPLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR FCST. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WRN FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES SE ACROSS WI...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS. SO...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE ON TRACK
SHOWING HEAVIEST QPF IN A NW-SE STRIPE ACROSS WI. UTILIZING A 15/16
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WITH QPF ROUGHLY AROUND 0.05 N AND 0.2
ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER YIELDS SNOW AMOUNTS OF ROUGHLY AROUND 1 INCH
N AND 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. BEST CHC OF REACHING ADVY
CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES IN 12HRS IS IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. HELD
OFF ON ADVY SINCE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER QPF.
DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR A HEADLINE. FARTHER
E...850MB TEMPS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MI. ALTHOUGH DISPLACED FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING...SHALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE FAR N END OF THE LAKE MAY HELP BOOST SNOW
TOTALS A BIT INTO THE SE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS DRYING AND SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH NO
REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
30S FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT NOTHING LIKE
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT....RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER
FROM THEIR EVENING LOWS.
THE BEGINNING OF A CONSIDERABLE STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UP ON SUNDAY.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
THERE COULD BE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT ON TUESDAY
WITH ARRIVAL OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED
AND AGGRESSIVE PUSHING SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BRIEFLY DURING THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD...BUT ECMWF AND GEM OR NOT
NEARLY AS COLD. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW FLAKES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT THE MILDER SOLUTIONS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY.
MILD...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN PERSIST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTN HOURS. NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL TRACK SE INTO NRN MN
THIS AFTN AND THEN ACROSS WI TONIGHT...SPREADING -SN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR LATE
THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX. FURTHER
REDUCTION TO IFR IS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...THOUGH BEING
FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE MAIN PCPN AREA...KCMX MAY REMAIN PREVAILING
MFVR WITH ONLY IFR AT TIMES. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST LOCALLY TO AROUND 25KT EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER SE LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS SE
THRU WI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 20KT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN/EVENING...KEEPING WINDS
UNDER 20KT. SW WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP TO 15-25KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE E COAST AND LOW PRES TRACKS E ACROSS
CANADA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS MON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ON TUE
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE THE EVER POPULAR STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALL BUT CENTRAL MN
THIS MORNING. WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAINED...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
NEAR 30...WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10 WITH THE CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL MN. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE STAYING WITH US TODAY AS WELL AS NW FLOW WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN NODAK WORKS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME GOOD SPREAD IN
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ADVANCES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY BRINGING PRECIP IN SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE CAMS. FOR TIMING...FOLLOWED A NON-HRRR TIMING AS
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HOPWRF DO A BETTER JOB OF MATCHING UP WITH THE
FORCING SEEN WITH THE LLJ IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
AFTER TIMING...THE NEXT HURDLE IS P-TYPE. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR P-TYPE
TODAY WILL BE THE DEPTH OF ANY NEAR SURFACE MELTING LAYER...WITH NO
ELEVATED MELTING LAYERS EXPECTED...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF SNOW OR
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF HOW WARM IT GETS
TODAY AND THEREFOR KEEPS A MORE MIXED SCENARIO ALONG THE 94
CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-94. EVERYTHING NCEP RUNS
SAYS PRIMARY P-TYPE IS SNOW...EVEN ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WITH
MIXED PRECIP DOWN CLOSER TO THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. P-TYPE
FORECASTS FROM THE CAMS ARE MOSTLY A SNOW SCENARIO AS WELL. WHAT
MAKES RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TOUGH IS WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH PRECIP ONSET...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP PRECIP AS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HERE HAS WELL. YOU GO
THE ROUTE OF THE ECMWF AND MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF...YOU GET
SNOW WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 32 AND 35...RESULTING IN AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 2
AND 4 OF THE HOPWRF KEEP TEMPS AROUND 30 IN WRN WI...WHICH ALLOWS
FOR SNOW ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HOPWRF LIKELY STEM FROM LAND SURFACE MODELS
USED...WITH 2 AND 4 USING THE RAP LAND SFC MODEL WITH 1 AND 3 USING
THE NOAH MODEL. OUT THE GATE THIS MORNING...MEMBER 1 AND 3
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 2 AND 4 RUNNING TOO
COLD...SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER
AND LESS SNOW SCENARIO SHOWN WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3.
AFTER THE MAIN WAA PRECIP WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WE DO
LOSE RH IN THE ICE CRYSTAL MAKING LAYER...INDICATING ONLY SUPER
COOLED WATER DROPS WILL EXIST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ENDING THE PRECIP WITH DRIZZLE...THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT ONCE
WE LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE...WE WILL LOSE THE PRECIP GENERATION AS
WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SW FRINGE OF THE MPX CWA. WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...UPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE WARM UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH HOW WIDESPREAD OF A THUNDER THREAT WILL BE SEEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
BRIEF COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRIDAY SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SHOULD BRING
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WE SHOULD
SEE READINGS WARM THROUGH THE 30S IN THE EAST AND IN THE MID 50S
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE COULD SEE A 50 DEGREE READING IN THE METRO AS
WELL...IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUN.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH FRO LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH
SOME...AND LIFTS A MORE ROBUST LEADING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY. IF
THIS PANS OUT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN. THE 00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER YET AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY
FOR NOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BEST LI`S DO DROP BELOW ZERO AND THERE IS
SOME ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN MONDAY AFTERNOON SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. THIS LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER
MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MN BY
12Z TUE. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION TO THE EAST TUESDAY AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND MINUS 4
OVER THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD TO SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE AREA. LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AS WELL...AND THE GFS TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN WITH +10 TO +14 DEGREE
850MB AIR TEMPS LIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD
SEE A 60 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON IF
THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WAVE COMING TOGETHER IN THE DAKOTAS RIGHT NOW IS MAIN TROUBLE
MAKER FOR TODAY. SEEING SOME PRETTY LARGE TEMP/DEWP SPREADS ACROSS
MN THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPLAINS WHY BIGGEST CHANGE TO TAFS WAS
TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH A HOPWRF
MEAN TIMING. HEAVIEST PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO FALL OVER WRN
WI...WHERE SOME 3/4SM IN -SN WAS INTRODUCED. AS FOR
P-TYPE...WHERE IT FALLS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN ON THE
SIDE OF THE TYPE BEING SNOW...SO BEEFED UP THE SNOW MENTION AT ALL
BUT RWF...WHO LOOKS TO LARGELY MISS THE PRECIP. BESIDE DELAYING
THE SNOW...ALSO DELAYED VEERING OF WINDS OVER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NW AS A SFC LOW PARALLELS I-94 50 OR SO MILES TO THE
NORTH. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL...WITH CURRENT MVFR
CIGS EVENTUALLY SPREADING OVER ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE HEIGHTS IMPROVE
AND WE MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT...BUT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE NW...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF
MVFR CIGS COME DOWN TO IMPACT ALL BUT RWF.
KMSP...LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL ONLY BE A 2 HOUR OR SO WINDOW WITH
PRECIP AROUND THE NOON HOUR...AND THAT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE SNOW WILL KNOCK
THE VIS BACK QUITE A BIT. WE HAVE WEST WINDS AT THE MOMENT...BUT
THOSE ARE LOCALIZED TO THE TWIN CITIES...WITH MORE SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER QUICKLY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST
AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAMP AND HRRR INDICATE
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DESCENDING AGAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW BCMG S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS POSS LATE. WINDS SSW 10-15G20 KTS.
MON...FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE THE EVER POPULAR STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALL BUT CENTRAL MN
THIS MORNING. WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAINED...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
NEAR 30...WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10 WITH THE CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL MN. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE STAYING WITH US TODAY AS WELL AS NW FLOW WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN NODAK WORKS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME GOOD SPREAD IN
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ADVANCES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY BRINGING PRECIP IN SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE CAMS. FOR TIMING...FOLLOWED A NON-HRRR TIMING AS
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HOPWRF DO A BETTER JOB OF MATCHING UP WITH THE
FORCING SEEN WITH THE LLJ IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
AFTER TIMING...THE NEXT HURDLE IS P-TYPE. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR P-TYPE
TODAY WILL BE THE DEPTH OF ANY NEAR SURFACE MELTING LAYER...WITH NO
ELEVATED MELTING LAYERS EXPECTED...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF SNOW OR
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF HOW WARM IT GETS
TODAY AND THEREFOR KEEPS A MORE MIXED SCENARIO ALONG THE 94
CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-94. EVERYTHING NCEP RUNS
SAYS PRIMARY P-TYPE IS SNOW...EVEN ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WITH
MIXED PRECIP DOWN CLOSER TO THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. P-TYPE
FORECASTS FROM THE CAMS ARE MOSTLY A SNOW SCENARIO AS WELL. WHAT
MAKES RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TOUGH IS WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH PRECIP ONSET...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP PRECIP AS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HERE HAS WELL. YOU GO
THE ROUTE OF THE ECMWF AND MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF...YOU GET
SNOW WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 32 AND 35...RESULTING IN AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 2
AND 4 OF THE HOPWRF KEEP TEMPS AROUND 30 IN WRN WI...WHICH ALLOWS
FOR SNOW ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HOPWRF LIKELY STEM FROM LAND SURFACE MODELS
USED...WITH 2 AND 4 USING THE RAP LAND SFC MODEL WITH 1 AND 3 USING
THE NOAH MODEL. OUT THE GATE THIS MORNING...MEMBER 1 AND 3
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 2 AND 4 RUNNING TOO
COLD...SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER
AND LESS SNOW SCENARIO SHOWN WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3.
AFTER THE MAIN WAA PRECIP WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WE DO
LOSE RH IN THE ICE CRYSTAL MAKING LAYER...INDICATING ONLY SUPER
COOLED WATER DROPS WILL EXIST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ENDING THE PRECIP WITH DRIZZLE...THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT ONCE
WE LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE...WE WILL LOSE THE PRECIP GENERATION AS
WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SW FRINGE OF THE MPX CWA. WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...UPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE WARM UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH HOW WIDESPREAD OF A THUNDER THREAT WILL BE SEEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
BRIEF COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRIDAY SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SHOULD BRING
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WE SHOULD
SEE READINGS WARM THROUGH THE 30S IN THE EAST AND IN THE MID 50S
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE COULD SEE A 50 DEGREE READING IN THE METRO AS
WELL...IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUN.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH FRO LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH
SOME...AND LIFTS A MORE ROBUST LEADING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY. IF
THIS PANS OUT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN. THE 00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER YET AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY
FOR NOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BEST LI`S DO DROP BELOW ZERO AND THERE IS
SOME ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN MONDAY AFTERNOON SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. THIS LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER
MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MN BY
12Z TUE. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION TO THE EAST TUESDAY AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND MINUS 4
OVER THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD TO SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE AREA. LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AS WELL...AND THE GFS TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN WITH +10 TO +14 DEGREE
850MB AIR TEMPS LIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD
SEE A 60 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON IF
THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
LOW-END VFR CLOUDS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SCATTERING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...UNTIL CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR ON
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI. HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE PRECIP AS WELL...MOSTLY FOCUSED
BETWEEN 15Z WEST /KAXN/ AND 03Z EAST /KEAU/. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 18 KTS DEVELOPING...THEN SHIFT TO
WEST/NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
KMSP...
CIGS CIRCA 4KFT MAY SCATTER OUT TEMPORARILY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL FILL BACK IN FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/-RA RETURNING AROUND 16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE BY DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS TO 17 KTS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MORE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS POSS LATE. WINDS SSW 10-15G20 KTS.
MON...FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
FREEZING RAIN HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE AND ROAD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE IMPROVED OR WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER AS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE REMOVED ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LEAVING ONLY MCINTOSH...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY COUNTIES IN IT UNTIL 15 UTC. ROADS REMAIN ICY IN OTHER
AREAS THAT HAD FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO WE STILL NEED TO
STRESS TRAVEL IMPACTS EVEN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THE 12
UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING SAMPLED AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 7 C NEAR 860 MB...CLEARLY SUPPORTING FULL
MELTING ALOFT AND THUS FREEZING RAIN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT GRANT/MORTON/BURLEIGH/KIDDER
COUNTIES ARE NOW REMOVED FROM ANY FURTHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REMOVE THESE COUNTIES.
THE REST OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SO THE
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MVFR CIGS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID
MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KISN/KBIS. KMOT
AND KJMS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SOLID MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z-22Z...WHILE
KISN AND KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MVFR CIGS
AND THUS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR VFR CIGS. KDIK WILL SEE VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALL TERMINALS VFR FROM 00Z TO
12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE REMOVED ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LEAVING ONLY MCINTOSH...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY COUNTIES IN IT UNTIL 15 UTC. ROADS REMAIN ICY IN OTHER
AREAS THAT HAD FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO WE STILL NEED TO
STRESS TRAVEL IMPACTS EVEN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THE 12
UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING SAMPLED AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 7 C NEAR 860 MB...CLEARLY SUPPORTING FULL
MELTING ALOFT AND THUS FREEZING RAIN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT GRANT/MORTON/BURLEIGH/KIDDER
COUNTIES ARE NOW REMOVED FROM ANY FURTHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REMOVE THESE COUNTIES.
THE REST OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SO THE
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MVFR CIGS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID
MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KISN/KBIS. KMOT
AND KJMS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SOLID MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z-22Z...WHILE
KISN AND KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MVFR CIGS
AND THUS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR VFR CIGS. KDIK WILL SEE VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALL TERMINALS VFR FROM 00Z TO
12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ048-
050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT GRANT/MORTON/BURLEIGH/KIDDER
COUNTIES ARE NOW REMOVED FROM ANY FURTHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REMOVE THESE COUNTIES.
THE REST OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SO THE
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM
CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT KBIS/KJMS...UNTIL 14Z.
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MVFR CIGS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY MID MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KISN/KBIS. KMOT AND KJMS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SOLID MVFR CIGS
FROM 15Z-22Z FRIDAY...WHILE KISN AND KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MVFR CIGS AND THUS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR
VFR CIGS. KDIK WILL SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALL
TERMINALS VFR FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ037-
045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
555 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...
WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ENDED...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS OVER FOR
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND UPPER VORT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF OHIO VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW DRY OUT THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT. WHILE THE HIRESW-ARW
SHOWED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE
REGION. THE MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER SHALLOW ON MODELS INDICATING
SNOW FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
ISC GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO RISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING AND SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...
ONE FINAL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE AN
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE THE
CURRENT CLIPPER SYSTEM...THIS NEXT ONE WILL TAKE A TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...IS WEAKER...AND OVERALL HAS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY...850MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE THE CASE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR WV MOUNTAINS...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SW VA AND NW NC. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN. QPF IS ALSO LESS THAN THE CURRENT EVENT...MOST
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
1 INCH OR LESS WHERE IT SNOWS...WITH THE MOST EXPECTED IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER. WITH 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY EDGING UPWARD TOWARD 0C DURING
THIS NEXT CLIPPER EVENT...AND THE INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH
SUN...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WEST TO
AROUND 50 IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...A BRIEF
SETBACK IS NOTED IN 850MB TEMPS...DROPPING BACK INTO THE -5C
RANGE. HOWEVER...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL IS AGAIN LIMITED AND
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD AGAIN YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST TO 50S
EAST...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 25-32F RANGE.
MONDAY BEGINS THE TREND TOWARD A COMPLETE PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK. DEEP TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITH RIDGING AND A
CORRESPONDING SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES FROM THE CURRENT VALUES NEAR 552DM TO AROUND 582 DM BY MID
WEEK. 850MB TEMPS SURGE MONDAY FROM AROUND 0C AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE DAY TO +12C BY 00Z TUE. WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER
EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...AND THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MUCH
OF THE WEEK SEEING TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH DEEP TROUGHING WESTERN U.S. AND UPPER RIDGING EASTERN
U.S. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SOME COMPARED WITH RECENT RUNS. THIS
IS ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CREEP SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL
GET...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING IT WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION WHILE THE
GFS ALLOWS IT TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY CHURNS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE ECMWF AGAIN MUCH SLOWER TO
BRING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN THE GFS. A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER CUTOFF LOW BY MONDAY.
FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY BE EXPECTED
BY MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO CONCERNS IN OUR CWA WILL BE AVOIDED...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...WE CAN
ANTICIPATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...BUT THAT APPEARS FROM ALL
ANGLES AT THIS POINT TO BE BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 555 AM EST FRIDAY...
DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW...FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE EAST TAF SITES OF KROA/KLYH/KDAN...THEN GRADUALLY TO BCB BY MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE KLWB/KBLF STICK TO IFR EARLY THEN NUDGE TOWARD
2000-3000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER BKN CIGS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA CREATING VFR CONDITIONS AS A
CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SATURDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND THEN HEAVY FOR A TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG
IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN.
SHOWERS DECREASE MONDAY. DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST FRIDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWING THE
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN MOVING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE RAIN
RETURN BACK TO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST FOR COASTAL RANGES WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED. MOST URBAN SPOTS WILL BE UNDER 1/4".
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHIFT WILL BE FOR TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. LATEST RFC NUMBERS OUT THIS
MORNING WERE ADJUSTED A BIT HERE AT THE OFFICE. OVERALL NOT A BIG
CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS FOR COASTAL RANGES WERE
INCREASED A BIT. MOST CITIES STILL IN THE 1.5 TO 3" CATEGORY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER STORY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENT IN EFFECT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NAM
HEAVILY FOCUSED ON THE BIG SUR REGION. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THAT TODAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE`RE ALL WAITING FOR THE MAIN RAIN EVENT
WHICH WONT SHOW UP UNTIL SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME RADAR SHOWS
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RAP SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
RAINS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART ANY RAIN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED
FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND MONTEREY.
SATURDAY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND STEADY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. MAIN UPDATE
WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO SACRAMENTO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HILLS. AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL DRAG DOWN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IMPACTS SHOULD INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ASSOCIATED ISSUES SUCH AS
DOWNED POWER LINES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH SOME HEAVY
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL END OVER
THE BAY AREA AROUND 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE COLD AND
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND SOME BLUSTERY ONSHORE WINDS.
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPLIT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION.
SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY BUT THEN DRYING BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 OR 3 MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING FOR WEEK OF MARCH 14TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:54 AM PST FRIDAY...COMPLEX AND LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THIS
EVENING AND A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. DEFINITELY A MIXED
BAG WITH CIGS/VSBY RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR AT TIMES. BLUNTLY
PUT...WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...A MIX OF MVFR TO POSS IFR CONDITIONS TODAY.
WILL KEEP VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT BETTER SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. POSS BREAK THIS EVENING WITH VCSH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH STEADIER
RAINFALL AFTER 19-20Z SATURDAY. WILL NOT ISSUE AN AIRPORT WX
WARNING ATTM...BUT IT MAY BE NEED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN
RETURNING ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 AM PST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIOD OF RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...SQUARED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.BEACHES... A LARGE... MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO REGIONAL BEACHES
BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY SUNDAY... SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 20 FEET
DEPENDING ON LOCATION WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST FACING BEACHES WILL FEEL THE BRUNT
OF THIS SWELL TRAIN... WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SHORE
BREAK... AND SNEAKER WAVES POSSIBLE. A COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AND HIGH TIDE MAY ALSO LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. REMEMBER... NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE
OVERWHELMING POWER OF THE OCEAN... SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN
SWEPT OUT TO SEA THIS SEASON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND THEN HEAVY FOR A TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG
IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN.
SHOWERS DECREASE MONDAY. DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST FRIDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWING THE
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN MOVING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE RAIN
RETURN BACK TO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST FOR COASTAL RANGES WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED. MOST URBAN SPOTS WILL BE UNDER 1/4".
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHIFT WILL BE FOR TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. LATEST RFC NUMBERS OUT THIS
MORNING WERE ADJUSTED A BIT HERE AT THE OFFICE. OVERALL NOT A BIG
CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS FOR COASTAL RANGES WERE
INCREASED A BIT. MOST CITIES STILL IN THE 1.5 TO 3" CATEGORY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER STORY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENT IN EFFECT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NAM
HEAVILY FOCUSED ON THE BIG SUR REGION. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THAT TODAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE`RE ALL WAITING FOR THE MAIN RAIN EVENT
WHICH WONT SHOW UP UNTIL SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME RADAR SHOWS
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RAP SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
RAINS DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART ANY RAIN
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED
FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND MONTEREY.
SATURDAY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND STEADY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. MAIN UPDATE
WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAS IN
COORDINATION WITH WFO SACRAMENTO. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HILLS. AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL DRAG DOWN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR AND EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IMPACTS SHOULD INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ASSOCIATED ISSUES SUCH AS
DOWNED POWER LINES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH SOME HEAVY
SHORT TERM RAIN RATES THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL END OVER
THE BAY AREA AROUND 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE COLD AND
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND SOME BLUSTERY ONSHORE WINDS.
NEXT ORGANIZED SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN. SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPLIT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AS A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION.
SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY BUT THEN DRYING BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 OR 3 MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEMS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING FOR WEEK OF MARCH 14TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 AM PST FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL USHER IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS... REDUCED VISIBILITY... AND MVFR TO VLIFR CIGS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY PRIMARILY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTH BEGINNING ABOUT 24
HOURS OUT FROM NOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
STRENGTHEN FURTHER 24-36 HOURS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER RAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS. BRIEF CLEARING
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER 18Z... BUT CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER
ANY CLEARING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LIGHT...MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VLIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING.... THEN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 AM PST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIOD OF RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POTENT STORM SYSTEM.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...SQUARED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SWELL
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.BEACHES... A LARGE... MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO REGIONAL BEACHES
BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY SUNDAY... SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 20 FEET
DEPENDING ON LOCATION WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT
THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST FACING BEACHES WILL FEEL THE BRUNT
OF THIS SWELL TRAIN... WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SHORE
BREAK... AND SNEAKER WAVES POSSIBLE. A COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN... AND HIGH TIDE MAY ALSO LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. REMEMBER... NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE
OVERWHELMING POWER OF THE OCEAN... SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN
SWEPT OUT TO SEA THIS SEASON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
405 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SATURDAY.
ALBERTA CLIPPER RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS MILDER WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE RACES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA MIDWEEK AND PULLS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. STRONG OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS IT MAKES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLASSIC LEAF PATTERN WHEN THE LOW IS UNDERGOING
CYCLOGENESIS. THIS RAMP-UP WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING 925 MB JET TO INCREASE 40-50 KTS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF SNOW EAST OF THE I-95
IS BEGINNING TO DRY UP. THIS IS DUE TO OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENING AND
PULLING THE MOISTURE CLOSER TO IT. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT MUCH OF
THE SNOW CHANCES WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER EXPECT THE MOISTURE SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE GFS/EC AND CMC ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ACK...MAINLY
WHEN TEMPS COOL OFF ONCE THE WIND GOES MORE NORTHERLY. THEREFORE
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ACK ADVISORY.
THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SNOW IS ACROSS THE MASS EAST COAST
INCLUDING THE NORTH SHORE. WENT AHEAD AN ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ESSEX COUNTY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW MOVING ONSHORE. THE LATEST NAM12 AS WELL AS THE HRRR ARE ALSO
ON BOARD. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT THE RAP GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH SHORE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A COASTAL FRONT WILL HELP ENHANCE THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MORE SO THEN WHAT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES FOR ESSEX COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE ON TOP OF THE 1-2 THAT
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN. ONCE THE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP...BELIEVE THEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION OF THE WIND. SO LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS ROUTE 3 IN PLYMOUTH COULD BE IMPACTED WITH A QUICK DUSTING
OF SNOW AS WELL AS REDUCED VSBYS...ESP DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE
AND INTO LATE EVENING HOURS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION THIS
EVENING WHEN TRAVELING.
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEFORE ENDING AROUND 1-3 AM.
THE OTHER MAIN FOCUS IS THE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ANTICIPATE LOCATIONS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO SEE NEAR 25-35 MPH GUSTS. HOWEVER STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS...WHICH IS CLOSER
TO THE STRONG JET. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS GUSTS
BETWEEN 40- 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES.
THERE ARE A FEW COASTAL CONCERNS...PLEASE REACH THE COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW FOR
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS GUSTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLAND AND THE WATERS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW TURNS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY PASSING BY DURING THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
RIDGE-WEST/TROUGH-EAST PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND FLATTENS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WEST TO EAST AS THE FLOW
FLATTENS. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE SCALE SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW WELL OUT TO SEA. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA. A THIRD SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS CANADA
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
FLATTENING THE NEW ENGLAND PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE DAILIES...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...
ALBERTA CLIPPER FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THEN SWINGS OFFSHORE AND WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA. HOWEVER THE
SUPPORTING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER US. SUFFICIENT COLD AIR
AT THE CORE OF THE TROUGH TO INCREASE INSTABILITY...TOTALS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WHICH SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. LIKELY NOT ANY THUNDER...BUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL THEN MOVE OFF WITH CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL REACH TO 850 MB SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS QUEBEC
WILL PULL A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SO WE MAY
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SUPPORT FOR WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK WILL BE THE WARMING TEMPS. WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SHRINK THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
MIXING EVEN TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MID 60S TUESDAY AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...SO
WE BUMPED GUIDANCE VALUES UP 2-3 DEGREES.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING EASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA EITHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS OR THURSDAY MIDDAY-AFTERNOON PER THE
ECMWF. THIS COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED
BY THE OBVIOUS TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COLD FRONT. BUT THE TREND
LOOKS FINE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS
EASTERN TERMINALS WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z AND IMPACT IMMEDIATE EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT 20-30
KT WIND GUSTS AROUND I-95 WITH CAPE AND ISLANDS SEEING GUSTS NEAR
40-50 KTS BETWEEN 03-09Z.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRISK NW WINDS INTO THE MORNING FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT OVERALL AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. VFR
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SKC WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING PUSH. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT VSBYS BUT ANTICIPATE
CONDITIONS AROUND 2-4 SM. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END
BY 04Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT TO FAR BEHIND.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW-MODERATE CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY WHILE PASSING SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. NE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING PASSAGE AROUND 8 PM ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE WATERS.
GALE AND STORM FORCE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WAVES BUILDING
UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 FEET. SNOW/RAIN OUTCOMES ESPECIALLY S/SE WILL
RESULT IN VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
SATURDAY...
N/NW WINDS REMAINING BLUSTERY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY. COLDER AIR BUILDING S LENDS A
DEFINITE RISK OF FREEZING SPRAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS INITIALLY 10 TO 15
FEET GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THOSE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATER. SEAS REMAIN
LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MAY BE AREAS AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED MONDAY FOR THE WINDS AND ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY FOR
THE SEAS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS INCREASE THIS EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE
ANY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACT AROUND THE TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE...WHICH IS PARTICULARLY LOW ASTRONOMICALLY. THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE IS HIGHER ASTRONOMICALLY BUT STILL NOT ALL THAT
HIGH AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES GO. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SURGE AND RESIDUE SWELLS TO POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME EROSION ALONG THE
OUTER CAPE AND THE EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET. ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING IN
SPEED...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A SURGE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THIS MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME VERY MINOR FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS EASY STREET. THE ESTOFS GUIDANCE LOOKED MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE ETSS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE ETSS GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE SUPERIOR FOR
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE PRIOR SATURDAY MORNING SURGE FORECAST
STILL LOOKED GOOD FROM THIS SHIFT/S PERSPECTIVE WITH ONLY VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CAPE COD NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORELINES. WILL COVER THE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND EROSION DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH A
STATEMENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ006-
007.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-256.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
241 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM NEW YORK CITY NORTH AND WEST.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORKS
AROUND 4 PM. AS THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY WORK TO END
SNOW GROWTH OVER THE REGION. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
ACCUMULATION HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO GRASSY AND COLDER
SURFACES WITH ROADWAYS REMAINING WET. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF 16Z...BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THICKEST
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW PULL AWAY TO THE EAST.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SE CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF...AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 23Z. VFR CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD THEREAFTER.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN
-SHSN.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO GALES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR GALES ON THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINER BAYS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
AND THE GALE WARNING HERE COULD BE CHANGED TO AN SCA THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1229 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM NEW YORK CITY NORTH AND WEST.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORKS
AROUND 4 PM. AS THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY WORK TO END
SNOW GROWTH OVER THE REGION. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
ACCUMULATION HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO GRASSY AND COLDER
SURFACES WITH ROADWAYS REMAINING WET. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF 16Z...BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THICKEST
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW PULL AWAY TO THE EAST.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SE CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE CT AND LONG
ISLAND. SNOW SHOULD END AT KNYC TERMINALS BY 19Z...AND AT KGON BY
21Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THIS TIME...AND THEN
VFR CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ENDS BY 20Z. IMPROVING CONDS
THEREAFTER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN
-SHSN.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO GALES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR GALES ON THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINER BAYS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
AND THE GALE WARNING HERE COULD BE CHANGED TO AN SCA THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1151 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS AND DEEPENS TODAY AS IT
TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AND BUILDING MORE SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM NEW YORK CITY NORTH AND WEST.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FORKS
AROUND 4 PM. AS THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY WORK TO END
SNOW GROWTH OVER THE REGION. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
ACCUMULATION HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO GRASSY AND COLDER
SURFACES WITH ROADWAYS REMAINING WET. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS OF 16Z...BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THICKEST
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW PULL AWAY TO THE EAST.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SE CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS WELL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAV LOWS WERE USED AS THEY BETTER CONVEY
THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LARGER URBAN AND RURAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
OVERALL WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. CHANCES
WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME IT WILL BE BUILD MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LARGER RIDGING ALOFT WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH
RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
AVERAGE...ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY. A SUMMERTIME LIKE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES FOR MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL DROP
AS LOW AS 1SM...AND CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 18Z.
VFR EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOP AROUND 15 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS.
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 18Z. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVING CONDS BY 19-20Z. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE SUB-VFR IN -SHSN.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. SW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO GALES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR GALES ON THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINER BAYS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
AND THE GALE WARNING HERE COULD BE CHANGED TO AN SCA THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS
THE OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
OCEAN SEAS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AT THAT TIME SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD
BACK UP TO 5 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.15 OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...
200 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE SHARPLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON SOME
PAVED SURFACES.
THE CENTER OF THE MAIN CLIPPER SHORT WAVE IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS ITS DRIVING JET SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
THIS EVENING...HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL MAXIMIZE OVER
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED ON UPSTREAM MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM OMAHA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE SOUTH OF THE VORTICITY CENTER. AS THIS
CATCHES UP TO THE LIFT AND SATURATION...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
PRESENTLY IN MN/NORTHERN IA SHOULD SHOW SOUTHEAST EXPANSION AND
PROBABLY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WHICH
CORRELATES TO WHEN IT IS OVER THE AREA.
HAVE ONLY MADE FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO HOURLY TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WET SNOW THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY BE A MIX WITH RAIN...AND TOWARD
I-39 IT COULD REMAIN A MIX OR EVEN JUST RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
BECAUSE OF THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FORCING AND FOCUS...THE
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO LAST TWO HOURS OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
THE MODERATE INTENSITY EVEN A SHORTER SPAN. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY...
VISIBILITY...AND HOURLY SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE PRIMARY TIMING
FOR THE CHICAGO METRO LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WETTER QUALITY OF THE SNOW AND TEMPERATURES OF 31-35 SHOULD LIMIT
MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT...THOUGH GRASSY SURFACES WILL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK COAT IN NORTH OF I-80 COMMUNITIES. SOUTH OF
I-80 MORE LIMITED TIME AND FORCING FOR SATURATION WILL PROVIDE
MORE VIRGA /RADAR ECHOES NOT REACHING THE GROUND/ THAN
PRECIPITATION...SO NO ACCUMULATION FORECAST.
LOSS OF ICE HAPPENS RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND LIFT STILL ARE
PROVIDED ON RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS EVEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. SO
CONTINUE FORECAST DRIZZLE CHANCES. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
INCHING UP LATE TONIGHT SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ON FREEZING DRIZZLE
BUT DO INDICATE THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST WHERE OUR
DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OUR 30-32 FOR A FEW HOURS.
HAVE TRENDED MORE CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE DONE SO AS THE CLIPPER BROADENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND KEEPS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
IT COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL WITH 40 EAST TO 45 WEST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 PM CST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SHIFT TOWARDS A WARM AND ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS
BUT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE OUR
COLDEST NIGHT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME ANCHORED
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH STRONG EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY THIS WILL MEAN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. AS DEEP TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WHILE ITS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS DO
SHOW INSTABILITY BUILDING THIS FAR NORTH SO A THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...MAINLY ON TUESDAY FOR OUR
AREA. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CUT OFF ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AROUND
MIDWEEK AND EVENTUALLY MEANDER ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT BUT IT
DOES APPEAR WE WILL GENERALLY STAY IN A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE TAFS ARE:
- WINDS FLUCTUATING FROM SSE TO SSW AT 7-8KT THIS AFTERNOON.
- TWO HOUR PERIOD OR SO OF SNOW LATE THIS EVENING WITH IFR
VISIBILITY AND BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY. SNOW MAY VERY BRIEFLY START
AS A MIX WITH RAIN.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING
THE SNOW INCLUDING WITH TEMPERATURES AT 32.
- MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY WITH IFR POTENTIAL WITH PRECIPITATION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE DEFINED. THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATION IN THE DIRECTION
AROUND DUE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK SHOT...LESS THAN
TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOURS...ESPECIALLY OF THE MODERATE SNOW
INTENSITY WHICH COULD BE ONE HOUR OR LESS. CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE
TIMING IS MEDIUM-HIGH AS THIS SYSTEM IS ONE THAT CAN BE WELL-
TIMED...AND IF ANYTHING SOME OF THE SNOW TIME MAY NEED TO BE
SHORTENED. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITHIN THIS SNOW
AREA WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT LASTING NATURE
OF THE SNOW...TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE INCH IS FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LIFT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 32 TO 34 ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY OVERNIGHT SO THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT
ZERO BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT OCCURRING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK
TO INCH UP BY DAYBREAK.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
213 PM CST
A CLIPPER LIKE SNOW SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND...THEN
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
EVENTUALLY SET UP NEAR BERMUDA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN TO
AROUND 30 KT SUNDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 AND
OCCASIONALLY 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY HELPING SPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
THE LAKE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ON TUESDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
200 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...
200 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE SHARPLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ON SOME
PAVED SURFACES.
THE CENTER OF THE MAIN CLIPPER SHORT WAVE IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS ITS DRIVING JET SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
THIS EVENING...HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL MAXIMIZE OVER
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED ON UPSTREAM MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM OMAHA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE SOUTH OF THE VORTICITY CENTER. AS THIS
CATCHES UP TO THE LIFT AND SATURATION...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
PRESENTLY IN MN/NORTHERN IA SHOULD SHOW SOUTHEAST EXPANSION AND
PROBABLY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WHICH
CORRELATES TO WHEN IT IS OVER THE AREA.
HAVE ONLY MADE FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO HOURLY TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WET SNOW THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY BE A MIX WITH RAIN...AND TOWARD
I-39 IT COULD REMAIN A MIX OR EVEN JUST RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
BECAUSE OF THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FORCING AND FOCUS...THE
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO LAST TWO HOURS OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
THE MODERATE INTENSITY EVEN A SHORTER SPAN. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY...
VISIBILITY...AND HOURLY SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE PRIMARY TIMING
FOR THE CHICAGO METRO LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WETTER QUALITY OF THE SNOW AND TEMPERATURES OF 31-35 SHOULD LIMIT
MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT...THOUGH GRASSY SURFACES WILL
PROBABLY SEE A QUICK COAT IN NORTH OF I-80 COMMUNITIES. SOUTH OF
I-80 MORE LIMITED TIME AND FORCING FOR SATURATION WILL PROVIDE
MORE VIRGA /RADAR ECHOES NOT REACHING THE GROUND/ THAN
PRECIPITATION...SO NO ACCUMULATION FORECAST.
LOSS OF ICE HAPPENS RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS. LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND LIFT STILL ARE
PROVIDED ON RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS EVEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. SO
CONTINUE FORECAST DRIZZLE CHANCES. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
INCHING UP LATE TONIGHT SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ON FREEZING DRIZZLE
BUT DO INDICATE THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST WHERE OUR
DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OUR 30-32 FOR A FEW HOURS.
HAVE TRENDED MORE CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE DONE SO AS THE CLIPPER BROADENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND KEEPS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-EAST SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
IT COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL WITH 40 EAST TO 45 WEST.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MORE
AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. LOCALLY THIS LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SO...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS FAIRLY
WARM...IT ALSO LOOKS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST MENTIONS CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY THE 00 UTC GFS IS FASTER
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEREAS OTHER
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. ULTIMATELY
THIS TIMING WILL HAVE INFLUENCES ON SHOWER CHANGES LATER IN THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE FRONT DOES PUSH
THROUGH...NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE TAFS ARE:
- WINDS FLUCTUATING FROM SSE TO SSW AT 7-8KT THIS AFTERNOON.
- TWO HOUR PERIOD OR SO OF SNOW LATE THIS EVENING WITH IFR
VISIBILITY AND BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY. SNOW MAY VERY BRIEFLY START
AS A MIX WITH RAIN.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING
THE SNOW INCLUDING WITH TEMPERATURES AT 32.
- MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY WITH IFR POTENTIAL WITH PRECIPITATION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE DEFINED. THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATION IN THE DIRECTION
AROUND DUE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK SHOT...LESS THAN
TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOURS...ESPECIALLY OF THE MODERATE SNOW
INTENSITY WHICH COULD BE ONE HOUR OR LESS. CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE
TIMING IS MEDIUM-HIGH AS THIS SYSTEM IS ONE THAT CAN BE WELL-
TIMED...AND IF ANYTHING SOME OF THE SNOW TIME MAY NEED TO BE
SHORTENED. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITHIN THIS SNOW
AREA WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT LASTING NATURE
OF THE SNOW...TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE INCH IS FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LIFT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 32 TO 34 ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY OVERNIGHT SO THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT
ZERO BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT OCCURRING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK
TO INCH UP BY DAYBREAK.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
347 AM CST
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE
RULE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A PERIOD OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SETS UP NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD EAST TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE/CLIPPER ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TODAY...THEN BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
CLIPPER ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE LAKE THEN
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND SLOW MOVING SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURES WILL EJECT FROM THE MOUNTAIN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY. EXPECT A RAMP-UP IN WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT DOES
INTENSIFY JUST NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE LAKE
WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS IS ALSO A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR FOG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR SPREADING OVER THE COLDER LAKE.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1025 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Thanks to subsidence beneath a ridge of high pressure and a light
northeasterly low-level flow, the low clouds that blanketed
central Illinois yesterday into last night have temporarily
shifted S/SW of the KILX CWA. 16z/10am visible satellite imagery
shows the cloud deck generally along and southwest of a
Macomb...to Jacksonville...to Flora line...with mostly sunny skies
noted elsewhere around central Illinois. High-res models show
these low clouds gradually dissipating today: however, they will
eventually be replaced by increasing mid/high clouds from the
west. End result will be mostly sunny skies across much of the
area through early afternoon, followed by increasing clouds this
afternoon. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle
40s. Updated forecast has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
High pressure will progress across IL today from NW to SE. Dry air
flowing into the area on N-NE winds will bring some clearing to our
forecast area northeast of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Mattoon.
Mixing of dry air from the mid-levels could provide some peeks of
sun farther south than that, but mostly cloudy conditions are
generally expected from Springfield to Effingham to Lawrenceville.
As the surface ridge axis moves into Indiana this afternoon, winds
will become southerly from west to east, helping start a return
flow of clouds and moisture northward. That southerly flow will
also help our southwestern areas warm a little more than
elsewhere, with highs in the upper 40s toward Jacksonville.
Northeast areas will on the lower end of our temp range today,
with around 40 for highs near Danville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Forecast has taken another turn for tonight with the chances for
precip returning as the last wave dives into the Midwest under
northwesterly flow. Precip chances are better in the north, but the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF and the 4km WRF are all persisting in some activity
tonight for most of Central Illinois before dawn. Saturday and
Sunday are remaining dry, with highs into the 50s for Sunday as the
ridge over the western CONUS shifts all the warm air into the
Midwest. Warm up really takes hold by Monday with temps soaring into
the 60s, but is accompanied by a return to a wet forecast with pops
creeping back in. The warm up is accompanied by a pattern shift to a
more active southwesterly flow as a large wave of energy digs into
the southwestern CONUS. A series of small waves ejecting out of the
swrn low will bring a rather wet forecast to next week, riding along
a developing baroclinic zone draped over the Ohio River Valley.
Changes in the forecast through the week, in particular the end of
the week will center around northerly extent of the precip.
For now, however, next week is dominated by rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Advancing high pressure has helped clearing progress from
northern IL into central IL over the last few hours. VFR skies
have developed at PIA, BMI, and CMI. Satellite loops and the
latest HRRR model show the clearing should progress to over the
southern TAF sites of SPI and DEC in a couple hours, then stall
out just to the south of SPI to Effingham.
Once the surface ridge axis moves east into Indiana, boundary
layer winds will shift from NE to SSE. That will cause the clouds
to begin a return northward for tonight, as a cold front reaches
IL. A few light rain or snow showers may develop at the northern
terminal sites of PIA, BMI and CMI this evening. No snow
accumulation is expected, with any precipitation being very light.
The warm ground would likely melt any light snow that does fall.
Cloud heights appear to remain VFR this evening as the clouds
return, but MVFR conditions will be possible during any precip.
Late tonight, winds will shift to the NW behind the cold front,
and increase to 10-12kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
AREA RADARS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO LINE UP THE
BEST WITH THE FORCING ON THE 295K THETA SURFACE BASED ON THE RAP
TRENDS. THUS LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF DUBUQUE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM.
TONIGHT THE RAP SHOWS THE BEST FORCING ON THE 295K THETA SURFACE
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE
STRONGER FORCING IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A WATERLOO IOWA TO GALESBURG
ILLINOIS LINE. THUS THE BETTER POPS WILL BE NORTH OF THIS LINE.
COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO DEVELOP THAT MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
NORTHEAST OF A DUBUQUE TO STERLING LINE. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE WELL UNDER AN INCH.
THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE FORCING INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL END
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME
LINGERING WEAK FORCING MAY RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE ENDING.
ON SATURDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
SPRING WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED...AND SO WILL LOW LEVEL POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. I DO NOT
BELIEVE IT WILL RAIN ALL THAT OFTEN IN THE WEEK AHEAD...BUT IN THE
WORLD OF BLENDED MODEL DATA...WE ARE OCCASIONALLY RELEGATED TO
FORECASTING NEARLY CONTINUOUS LOW RAIN CHANCES...AS MODELS OFFER
SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR. ONE THING IS SOMEWHAT
CERTAIN HERE...IT WILL BE MILD...AND DESPITE ANY CLOUDS THE
SUSTAINED WARM UP WILL NOT BE HELD BACK ANY LOWER THAN THE 50S GIVEN
DEWPOINTS RISING TO THAT LEVEL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR UNORGANIZED
THROUGH MONDAY AS BROAD WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS HINT AT BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT TIMES. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
RAIN CHANCE...THAT MAY IN THE END BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
THIS IS GOOD FOR THE SIMPLE FACT THAT WE NEED FURTHER TIME THIS WEEK
TO MELT ANY REMAINING FROST IN THE GROUND PRIOR TO ANY SPRING HEAVY
RAINS. THOSE RAINS APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING FLOODING RAINS TO THE MID
TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WITH POCKETS
OF VFR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z/05 WITH MORE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AFT 00Z/05 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI WITH THE
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AT KDBQ. AFT 06Z/05 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS...THERE MAY
OR MAY NOT BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KDBQ AND
KMLI.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1134 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
A shortwave trough will move from Montana early this morning then
southeast across the Northern and Central Plains today. The upper
trough deepens as it moves over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Surface high pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes into
northeast Kansas will move off to the east as low pressure deepens
in the Western High Plains then moves east through the day along
with an associated cool frontal boundary. Pressure gradient will
tighten through the morning into the afternoon hours along with
mixing down stronger winds aloft will yield winds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. High clouds will also increase through the
day across central and eastern Kansas. RAP soundings show mixing
from 800mb-850 mb this afternoon across the area with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s expected. The frontal boundary is expected to
move southeast into the forecast area shifting the winds to the west
and northwest behind it. The front is forecast to extend from
southwest Iowa to near Council Grove then southwest to low pressure
over the Texas Panhandle early this evening. The front will move
through the remainder of northeast and east central Kansas through
the evening hours with high pressure building into the area
overnight. Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
fall into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area with lows
in the upper 30s in east central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
Dry and mild conditions are expected for Saturday as a weak mid-
level ridge will slide over the central U.S. with surface high
pressure over the region. Expect high temperatures to reach into the
low/mid 60s with model soundings showing very dry conditions in the
low/mid levels of the atmosphere. While minimum relative humidity
values in the afternoon will likely be in the low to upper 20
percent range (causing a heightened concern for fire weather), winds
are expected to be rather light throughout the day as they shift
from north to southeast.
The weather pattern will become more active beginning Saturday night
as the first of several embedded waves skims across the area. This
first embedded wave could bring some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday with another weak
embedded wave supporting the development of additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Sunday into
Monday models show a mid-level trough over the western U.S. quickly
advancing toward the central U.S., which will help to push an area
of surface low pressure into the High Plains region and significantly
increase the pressure gradient over the forecast area. As a result,
expect very breezy southerly winds on Sunday and Monday, which will
support good warm-air advection and high temperatures soaring into
the upper 60s to middle 70s by Monday. As the mid-level trough lifts
north of the area Monday night into Tuesday, it will help to push a
strong dryline toward central Kansas with a cold front moving
eastward across the forecast area Monday night. With these features
in place, models show a decent amount of instability setting up
across central Kansas (CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg) with 0-6km
bulk shear values of 25-35 kts. As a result, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible primarily across north central and central
Kansas late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. However, the main
limiting factor will be whether or not there is enough available
moisture in central Kansas to support thunderstorm development, as
the better moisture may be focused a bit further east.
As the mid-level trough advances toward the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday with the surface cold front pushing well east of the area,
expect predominantly dry conditions with the exception of far east
central Kansas that may continue to be clipped by some scattered
showers Tuesday through Wednesday as the cold front looks to stall
out along the Mississippi River. Mild conditions should persist
through the week with highs prevailing in the upper 50s to upper 60s
through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will advance into
the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday, supporting dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR conditions expected. Minor wind gusts should develop at all
sites early with some decreases just ahead of a frontal passage
around 01Z. Weak front will keep winds relatively light behind the
front, but should be enough wind aloft to keep 10-13Z BR from
forming.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
South winds increasing by afternoon into the 15 to 20 mph range with
gusts to around 30 mph expected. Afternoon relative humidity is
expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range and could even go a
bit lower especially if temperatures are higher than forecast and
drier air mixes down to the surface. Have gone a little lower with
afternoon dewpoints this afternoon across the area more toward the
RAP which has performed best lately. That said have expanded the Red
Flag Warning for the whole CWA this afternoon given winds, low RH
and dry fuels.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1005 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING WITH CLEARING WHERE RAP
SHOWS STRONG PV HEIGHT ANOMALY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH
SOUTHERNLY GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA.
TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER
OVER OUR CWA WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WE WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD SUPPORT 70F TEMPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IF THE FRONT HOLDS OF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION OVER THE
CWA WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH BUILDING
IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
MOIST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BL WILL RESULT IN STRATUS SPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. SREF/NAM ARE STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR FOG...BUT LOW LEVEL MIXING STILL SEEMS TO SUPPORT MAINLY A
STRATUS EVENT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AND I TRENDED
LOWS UP PARTICULARLY IN OUR EAST WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD
ON AS DRIER AIR IN THE BL BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH WEAK POCKETS OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO BOTH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS IN SOUTHERLY BL FLOW...AND A VERY WARM AIR MASS
ADVECTING NORTH (HIGHS IN 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80F).
A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING GREATLY ON POSITION. NAM INDICATES
A WESTWARD MOVEMENT IN DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING
IN THE WEST AND STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOLUTION ALSO
LEADS TO MUCH HIGHER TDS IN OUR EAST...AND AS A RESULT HIGHER CAPE
AND WEAKER CINH. PARCELS WOULD TEND TO BE ELEVATED AND IF THE DRY
LINE DOES NOT BACK WESTWARD THE AIR MASS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN OUR CWA...WHICH IS THE
SUPPORTED SOLUTION OF GFS/ECMWF. EVEN IF NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES THE
DRY NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. I DECIDED TO KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...BUT I COULD SEE
ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. WITH THE NAM SOLUTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BASED ON ADJUSTED ML CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
RANGE IN OUR EAST AND GOOD SPEED SHEAR (0-6KM SHEER: 35-40
KT).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. 00Z GFS A LITTLE FASTER BUT MORE CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS
TO HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS WHICH I LIKE. STILL LOOKING FOR EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
EARLY TO MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY NOW
BEING ADVERTISED AS WELL SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO
LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IS THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRESENTLY WE COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET (<20 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS
>25 MPH) GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREELEY COUNTY TO
GRAHAM COUNTY IN THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S (WEST TO EAST)LOOKS GOOD PER
850MB TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THUS A DRY FORECAST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT BOTH FROM THE WEST
AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD..BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 AM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER RH DOESNT APPEAR TO DROP TO 15 PERCENT...AND
EVEN THEN IT IS UNLIKELY WE WOULD REACH 3HR OF WIND/RH CRITERIA.
LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SUNDAY IN OUR WEST...HOWEVER ANY GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WOULD BE IN THE EAST WHERE TDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
104 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS STILL MOVING SE
THROUGH OUR AREA AS OF 11AM...REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THIS BAND SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
SOME PASSING FLURRIES/DRIZZLE ARE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CREPT UP A DEGREE OR SO. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AND
FOG CONTINUING THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE MID-WEST.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE DENSE FOG
MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS. WEAK ADVECTION AND CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOR PRETTY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SKIRT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
DAWN...WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AS
SOME TEMPORARY SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE
SHALLOWS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP...AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT
AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL DECK IS POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY
ON IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S NORTH...WITH SOME MID 50S NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 0Z SUNDAY...AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LIMITED QPF. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING...SO TOO WILL ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AMPLIFY IN
MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROMOTE STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
MONDAY...AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN A BLOCKING
PATTERN...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
OR THE SURFACE FRONT. INSTEAD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY SRLY FLOW...WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE THE MAKINGS
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CREATING ANOTHER
EPICENTER FOR HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ACROSS KY...TOWARD THE CWA.
THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS...GENERAL MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT SEEMS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHEERING OUT
WITH A DECENT LOSS OF FORCING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...THE HIGHEST POPS AND OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM QPF WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF LOCATIONS TO OUR WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF. SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR OVERNIGHT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL STAY IN PLACE. BR OR FG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED NEAR
THE SURFACE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JVM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1239 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 1045 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Ongoing forecast pretty much on track. Ceilings are starting to rise
across the north as depth of the moisture thins. That area still may
see breaks in clouds by the end of the afternoon. Only subtle
adjustment was for temperatures down south, to drop them a degree or
two. Also wanted to remove the morning drizzle wording, as those
higher clouds take that moisture away from the surface.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
The main forecast concern in the short term is drizzle/rain chances
this morning then cloud trends/temperatures later today. A quick
moving clipper will brush the area Saturday morning, bringing a
chance of light rain.
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was quickly moving across
central Illinois and Indiana. Ahead of this feature, regional radar
mosaic showed light returns blossoming across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. A nearby RAP/HRRR sounding showed some loss of
ice saturation aloft with plenty of low level moisture. As a result,
several sites have been reporting drizzle or light rain.
Temperatures mostly were in the mid/upper 30s, having remained
mostly steady since last evening.
Plan on this upper wave and weak surface front to pass through the
forecast area this morning. Light precipitation, either drizzle or
light rain, will accompany it. HRRR, RAP and WRF hi-res models are
in good agreement showing this ending across our forecast area by
mid/late morning. A slightly drier air mass will try to erode some
of the clouds by afternoon, but the forecast thinking is that most
areas will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, especially along/east of
I-65. Some lucky folks west of I-65 may see some late day sun
breaking through. Plan on highs to range from the low/mid 40s across
the northern Bluegrass to the mid/upper 40s across south-central KY.
Quick on its heels is another northwest flow system that will arrive
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of its forcing and
saturation will stay north of the area. Areas most likely to see
some light rain showers, mainly Saturday morning, would be across
southeast Indiana into northern KY and into the Bluegrass region.
Despite the morning precipitation, temperatures should recover
nicely in the wake of that system, rising into the 50s region-wide
by afternoon. A few 60 degree readings are possible across south-
central KY, including Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
...Periods of Heavy Rain Likely Next Week...
The primary forecast concern in the long term is the unsettled
weather pattern that is likely to develop across the area mid to
late next week.
The synoptic pattern on Sunday is expected to feature upper level
ridging over the central Plains with a digging trough over the
western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is likely to be
sprawled out across the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. Sunday is
shaping up to be a nice, seasonable day with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s, warmest across south-central Kentucky. If there happens to
be enough of a late afternoon return flow, then highs may end up a
few degrees warmer, especially west of I-65.
From Monday into Tuesday, the aforementioned western trough advances
eastward, spinning up several surface lows over the central Plains.
Downstream ridging and a surface high anchored off the NC coast will
keep our area dry as the main axis of 850 mb moisture transport
stays well to the west. Plan on warmer temperatures as well with
daily highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll
have to contend with steady south breezes during the day, but winds
and gusts look to stay below advisory levels.
Wednesday through Friday...
No significant changes in the 04.00z model guidance as overall the
various data sets are in rather good agreement showing signs of a
heavy rain event for our area. By mid-week, a 500 mb closed low
spins across Texas and the Gulf Coast. This will pump anomalously
high moisture into the area. PWATS still peak above 1.5 inches
Wednesday night into Thursday, which is significantly above normal
for early/mid March. Several waves to look ride along a stalled
surface front that may stretch along the southern MS River to lower
OH River Valleys. Moisture transport impinges on the area the
greatest late Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through
Thursday.
Overall, QPF and WPC guidance continues to trend higher. From late
Tuesday through Friday, 2-4 inches may fall across portions of
southern/southwest Indiana into western and west-central KY. The
remaining areas east of I-65 may still see 1-2+ as well. These
amounts are of course tentative and will adjust as the event nears.
These amounts may also not capture some local enhancements,
especially if convection ends up more widespread. Overall, a heavy
rain event resulting in flooding is possible mid/late next week.
How fast the upper level closed low moves across the deep south late
next week and into next weekend is a bit uncertain this far out, but
04.00z guidance points toward this feature lifting through the area
next weekend. This may bring additional rainfall, some of it heavy,
not necessarily captured in the potential amounts discussed above.
Overall, a very unsettled period beginning the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Fri Mar 4 2016
Low clouds continue at all TAF sites early this afternoon, with
generally lower MVFR cigs at this time. Short range models suggest
lower clouds will begin to scour out later this afternoon at SDF and
eventually LEX and BWG this evening as the next weather system
approaches from the northwest. Will monitor progress of these low
clouds.
For tonight, approaching system will spread mid and high level
clouds across central KY. Surface winds will be light, and a small
temp-dewpoint spread toward dawn could lead to MVFR vsbys in fog/
haze. This system should result in scattered showers at SDF and LEX
Saturday morning, first at SDF. BWG should be far enough removed for
just clouds but no or just isolated showers. Model low-level
moisture progs also suggest lower clouds/cigs returning Saturday
morning into the afternoon. Will keep these in MVFR category for now
as vsbys improve to P6SM.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
257 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. BY
MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM IS GOING TO BE THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW THAT
IS CONTINUING OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THERE IS SOME
LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL MAINE AS
WELL...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS SEEING THE LIONS
SHARE OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM12 HAVE
STARTED TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE AND THE HRRR IS STARTING TO
FALL IN LINE ALSO. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SNOW COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BECAUSE
OF THIS...WE HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
EXPECT COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE ANTICIPATED.
LARGE SCALE HEMISPHERIC FLOW AT 500 MB AS POLAR VORTEX OVER NRN
CANADA BEGINS TO SEND PIECES OFF TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
BREAKS DOWN THE BLOCKING OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC...WHILE A SERIES OF
LOWS DEEPEN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD RIDGING OVER
THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND THE WRN AND GENERALLY DRIER CONDS /NO
MAJOR STORMS/ AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDS AS WELL.
FROM A SENSIBLE WX PERSPECTIVE...SUNDAY STARTS WITH A WEAK 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUN
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE POLAR VORTEX AND
CLIPS THE NE ZONES MONDAY AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SHSN OR RA IN
THE MTNS MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT THE MOVES IN FOR TUE-WED WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR S. EURO AND GFS DOW PASS A 500MB OVER OR
JUST TO OUR N LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
AT THIS POINT, WITH THE GFS PUSHING MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AROUND THU...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
EURO TIMING IS REVERSED WITH THE COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED DOWN THU
AND AND STALLING S OF THE CWA...AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT THU
NIGHT. EITHER WAY...QPF NOT IMPRESSIVE ATTM...AND WILL LIKELY FALL
AS RAIN. THE MODEL BLEND OF POPS GENERALLY KEEP THEM IN THE SLT
CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE IN THE WED-THU NIGHT PERIOD.
TEMPS START AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AROUND 30 IN THE N TO AROUND
40 IN THE S. MON WILL SEE TEMPS JUMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS
FROM 40 TO 50...AND THE WILL INCREASE SEVERAL DEGREES EACH ON TUE
AND WED WITH WED HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S IN THE N TO 60-65 IN THE S. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL SCALE BACK TEMPS ON THU AND
FRI...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10F ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AT KCON...KPWM...KPSM AND KMHT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE SNOW ENDS EXPECT ALL
LOCATIONS TO GO VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN-WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OVER THE WATERS. IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED EVENT WITH WINDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. ONCE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AS WINDS DECREASE.
LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS WINDS SW WINDS SURGE AHEAD
OF A FRONT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ013-
014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...POHL
SHORT TERM...POHL
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA...BUT FOR EARLY MAR HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND NORMAL FROM NW CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE
RESULTING NW FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NAMERICA...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS OVER MT/SASKATCHEWAN. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING SE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT LES
DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF NW UPPER MI ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BRUSHING
AREAS FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. FARTHER S...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE SOME SPOTS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO
ZERO...OTHERS ARE IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
DISSIPATING LOW PRES TROF AND MODERATING AIR MASS WILL BRING AN END
TO ANY LIGHT LES/FLURRIES AFFECTING THE FAR NE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN
MT/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF WAVE AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM SE
SASKATCHEWAN TO E CNTRL WI BY 12Z. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF FEATURE AND QPF...HAVE UTILIZED A SIMPLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR FCST. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WRN FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES SE ACROSS WI...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS. SO...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE ON TRACK
SHOWING HEAVIEST QPF IN A NW-SE STRIPE ACROSS WI. UTILIZING A 15/16
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WITH QPF ROUGHLY AROUND 0.05 N AND 0.2
ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER YIELDS SNOW AMOUNTS OF ROUGHLY AROUND 1 INCH
N AND 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. BEST CHC OF REACHING ADVY
CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES IN 12HRS IS IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. HELD
OFF ON ADVY SINCE THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER QPF.
DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR A HEADLINE. FARTHER
E...850MB TEMPS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
MI. ALTHOUGH DISPLACED FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING...SHALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE FAR N END OF THE LAKE MAY HELP BOOST SNOW
TOTALS A BIT INTO THE SE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UP INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS DRYING AND SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH NO
REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
30S FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT NOTHING LIKE
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT....RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER
FROM THEIR EVENING LOWS.
THE BEGINNING OF A CONSIDERABLE STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN UP ON SUNDAY.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SNOWPACK WILL YIELD PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE WEST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
THERE COULD BE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT ON TUESDAY
WITH ARRIVAL OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED
AND AGGRESSIVE PUSHING SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BRIEFLY DURING THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD...BUT ECMWF AND GEM OR NOT
NEARLY AS COLD. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW FLAKES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT THE MILDER SOLUTIONS WILL PROBABLY VERIFY.
MILD...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN PERSIST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO LATE THIS AFTN.
NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL TRACK SE INTO NRN MN THIS AFTN AND THEN
ACROSS WI TONIGHT...SPREADING -SN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AT
KIWD/KSAW AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX. FURTHER REDUCTION TO IFR
IS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...THOUGH BEING FARTHER REMOVED
FROM THE MAIN PCPN AREA...KCMX MAY REMAIN PREVAILING MFVR WITH ONLY
IFR AT TIMES. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL FALL
TO LIFR AT KSAW. ONCE THE SYSTEM SLIDES OUT ON SAT...EXPECT IFR TO
LOW MVFR DECK TO STAY IN PLACE INTO THE AFTN ALONG WITH LINGERING
LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2016
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST LOCALLY TO AROUND 25KT EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER SE LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT UNDER A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. AS LOW PRES TRACKS SE
THRU WI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 20KT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT AFTN/EVENING...KEEPING WINDS
UNDER 20KT. SW WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP TO 15-25KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE E COAST AND LOW PRES TRACKS E ACROSS
CANADA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS MON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ON TUE
AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE THE EVER POPULAR STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS ALL BUT CENTRAL MN
THIS MORNING. WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAINED...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
NEAR 30...WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10 WITH THE CLEAR SKIES IN CENTRAL MN. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE STAYING WITH US TODAY AS WELL AS NW FLOW WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN NODAK WORKS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME GOOD SPREAD IN
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ADVANCES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY BRINGING PRECIP IN SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE CAMS. FOR TIMING...FOLLOWED A NON-HRRR TIMING AS
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HOPWRF DO A BETTER JOB OF MATCHING UP WITH THE
FORCING SEEN WITH THE LLJ IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
AFTER TIMING...THE NEXT HURDLE IS P-TYPE. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR P-TYPE
TODAY WILL BE THE DEPTH OF ANY NEAR SURFACE MELTING LAYER...WITH NO
ELEVATED MELTING LAYERS EXPECTED...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF SNOW OR
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF HOW WARM IT GETS
TODAY AND THEREFOR KEEPS A MORE MIXED SCENARIO ALONG THE 94
CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-94. EVERYTHING NCEP RUNS
SAYS PRIMARY P-TYPE IS SNOW...EVEN ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WITH
MIXED PRECIP DOWN CLOSER TO THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY. P-TYPE
FORECASTS FROM THE CAMS ARE MOSTLY A SNOW SCENARIO AS WELL. WHAT
MAKES RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TOUGH IS WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH PRECIP ONSET...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP PRECIP AS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HERE HAS WELL. YOU GO
THE ROUTE OF THE ECMWF AND MEMBERS 1 AND 3 OF THE HOPWRF...YOU GET
SNOW WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 32 AND 35...RESULTING IN AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH MEMBERS 2
AND 4 OF THE HOPWRF KEEP TEMPS AROUND 30 IN WRN WI...WHICH ALLOWS
FOR SNOW ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM RICE LAKE TO LADYSMITH. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HOPWRF LIKELY STEM FROM LAND SURFACE MODELS
USED...WITH 2 AND 4 USING THE RAP LAND SFC MODEL WITH 1 AND 3 USING
THE NOAH MODEL. OUT THE GATE THIS MORNING...MEMBER 1 AND 3
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 2 AND 4 RUNNING TOO
COLD...SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER
AND LESS SNOW SCENARIO SHOWN WITH MEMBERS 1 AND 3.
AFTER THE MAIN WAA PRECIP WORKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WE DO
LOSE RH IN THE ICE CRYSTAL MAKING LAYER...INDICATING ONLY SUPER
COOLED WATER DROPS WILL EXIST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ENDING THE PRECIP WITH DRIZZLE...THOUGH IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT ONCE
WE LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE...WE WILL LOSE THE PRECIP GENERATION AS
WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING STRATUS LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SW FRINGE OF THE MPX CWA. WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...UPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
THE LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS THE WARM UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH HOW WIDESPREAD OF A THUNDER THREAT WILL BE SEEN AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
BRIEF COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRIDAY SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SHOULD BRING
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WE SHOULD
SEE READINGS WARM THROUGH THE 30S IN THE EAST AND IN THE MID 50S
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE COULD SEE A 50 DEGREE READING IN THE METRO AS
WELL...IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUN.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH FRO LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH
SOME...AND LIFTS A MORE ROBUST LEADING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY. IF
THIS PANS OUT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN. THE 00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER YET AND
NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY
FOR NOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BEST LI`S DO DROP BELOW ZERO AND THERE IS
SOME ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN MONDAY AFTERNOON SO
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. THIS LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER
MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MN BY
12Z TUE. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION TO THE EAST TUESDAY AS
WELL. AGAIN SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND MINUS 4
OVER THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD TO SEE SOME THUNDER OVER THE AREA. LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AS WELL...AND THE GFS TAKES ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN WITH +10 TO +14 DEGREE
850MB AIR TEMPS LIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD
SEE A 60 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON IF
THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
P-TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...BUT RADAR IS REVEALING SOME MIX AND DRIZZLE ON THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON. QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW
WILL LAST 2-3 HOURS AT ANY GIVE LOCATION...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
RECEIVING LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH METRO
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE 1-3"...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS TOWARD NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...SO A SHARP CUTOFF THROUGH PARTS OF THE
METRO TOWARD EAU CLAIRE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MVFR...BUT THERE MAY
BE A BREAK IN THIS COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO THE FEW HOURS
OF VFR IN THE FORECAST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES IS OPTIMISTIC
COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE.
KMSP...NO REAL DIFFERENCE FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION. SNOW SHOULD BE
ESSENTIALLY OVER AROUND 21Z...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY ICING PROBLEMS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS POSS LATE. WINDS SSW 10-15G20 KTS.
MON...FOG/MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL. CHC -SHRA/TSRA. FROPA DURING THE DAY...WINDS
S AT 10KTS BECOMING NW 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ADJUST
SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
FREEZING RAIN HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE AND ROAD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE IMPROVED OR WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER AS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WE HAVE REMOVED ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LEAVING ONLY MCINTOSH...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY COUNTIES IN IT UNTIL 15 UTC. ROADS REMAIN ICY IN OTHER
AREAS THAT HAD FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH SO WE STILL NEED TO
STRESS TRAVEL IMPACTS EVEN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THE 12
UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING SAMPLED AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 7 C NEAR 860 MB...CLEARLY SUPPORTING FULL
MELTING ALOFT AND THUS FREEZING RAIN WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT GRANT/MORTON/BURLEIGH/KIDDER
COUNTIES ARE NOW REMOVED FROM ANY FURTHER THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REMOVE THESE COUNTIES.
THE REST OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SO THE
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/9AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL MID
MORNING. DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EVOLVING
FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGING COLD
FRONT NOW ALONG THE WESTERN ND BORDER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEING MAXIMIZED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM GLEN
ULLIN EAST INTO JAMESTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
RWIS SITES INDICATING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29F AND 33F ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOR FREEZING RAIN
TO OCCUR...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES JUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 14Z/8AM CST.
THUS UP UNTIL THAT TIME THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN COMMENCES MID
TO LATE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. USING THE
LATEST HRRR AVIATION CEILING FORECAST...THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON
TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. WILLISTON/BISMARCK/LINTON REMAIN ON THE
VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF CLOUDS. THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS HERE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING QUICKLY FARTHER EAST.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING 20 TO
25KT IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT AS EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 45F TO 55F SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...TO THE
COOLER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...AND EVEN
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE MILD ALL THE TIME.
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
BROAD LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE +8 TO +12 C RANGE SATURDAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S F OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THAT DEEP.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY...AND USING SOME OF THE BEST-VERIFYING MODEL OUTPUT IN THE
LAST SEVEN DAYS RESULTED IN A FORECAST CARRYING WIDESPREAD 60S F
ON SUNDAY...WITH 70 F A VERY LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 6TH
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON SUNDAY.
A LACK OF LEGITIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION...DRY TOP
SOIL AND SUNSHINE PROMOTING EFFICIENT MIXING WILL YIELD VERY DRY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN ND. WE LEANED ON THE DRIER EDGE OF 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE HUMIDITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE DRY
ENOUGH. ADD IN AN AFTERNOON BREEZE VIA BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE ELEVATED /AS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MULTI-DAY MEANS OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. THE
GUIDANCE IS SETTLING ON A SPLIT FLOW EVOLUTION TO THAT...AND THE
NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER /AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE/. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY BE THE RESULT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KISN TO KBIS. CIGS
WILL ERODE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL DRIVE
AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALL SHORT OF THOSE REQUIRED FOR RED
FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MST FRI MAR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WHICH BROUGHT THE
BORDERLAND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. THE NEXT
EFFECT WILL SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING NEAR
RECORD VALUES SATURDAY.CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH A MODERATELY
STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVES IN THE BORDERLAND.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
JUST TO THE EAST OF EL PASO. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK WELL
BELOW NORMAL BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT NEAR 60.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WARM...DIRTY SKIES...LIGHT TO BREEZY WEST WINDS NEXT 24 HRS.
OUR PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 06Z TONIGHT AND
THEN DEAMPLIFY SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SAT.
ON A MINOR NOTE A BRIEF INCONSEQUENTIAL FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE
WILL PUSH AGAINST THE SACRAMENTO MTNS TONIGHT AND FAR EASTERN CWA
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AFT 06Z BEFORE ERODING OUT BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF CI CLDS ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPS STILL TRYING TO APPROACH RECORDS. ANOTHER SHORT/WAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE SHOULD INTENSIFY
THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN COLO AND NMEX AND PUSH OUR AFTERNOON WINDS
INTO THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY.
SIM SHOWS THE LARGE COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CONTINUES OUR WAY ARRIVING LATER MONDAY AND LINGERING
TO LATER WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE IN AND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN REMARKABLE CONSENSUS OUT TO 156 HOURS AND
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE MODERATE TO STRONG PACIFIC STORM STILL
REMAINS ON SCHEDULE. RECENT TREND OF GFS/ECMWF HAS CONTINUED IN
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN SOMEWHAT. BOTH MODELS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DIG INTO MEXICO AND FORM A CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF US BY TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW NOT JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTH OF EL PASO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING OVER WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST WINDOW FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF SHOULD NOT BE GREAT
AS SYSTEM UNABLE TO TAP INTO SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON ITS OWN MOISTURE. WPC QPF VALUES ARE IN THE .1 TO .25
RANGE WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS TO .5 INCHES FOR THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH...THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE MODERATE SNOWFALL. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER SOME MONDAY (THOUGH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP) AS PACIFIC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT THEN FOLLOWS TUESDAY
MORNING AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 7000 FT AS SHOWERS
BEGIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN AROUND 6000-7000 FT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE STORM. SACS COULD ACCUMULATE DECENT SNOW (5-8
INCHES) IN THE SACRAMENTOS (GFS) BUT SPREAD OUT OVER 36+
HOURS...MAY REMAIN UNDER WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH A SLOW
MOVING LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND FURTHER COMPLICATIONS OF SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE BACKDOOR AND RAP AROUND THE LOW...PRECIP MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BE JUST TO OUR EAST BY 06Z
THURSDAY. GFS MODELS WILL COOL US TO -23C AT H5 TUESDAY AND
FORECASTING SOUNDINGS GIVE US ABOUT 400 CAPE AND LI`S OF 0 TO -1
SO VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY. PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST IN THE .4 RANGE. GFS H7 WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE 35
TO 40 KNOT RANGE FOR SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN NMEX..FAR WEST TEXAS.
IN THE LONGER TERM...GFS FORECASTS OUR NEXT ROUND OF WX AROUND
MARCH 13 WITH AT LEAST SOME MTN SHOWERS AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 005/00Z -06/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
SCT/BKN180 LAYERS 300. TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS WEST 7-12 KTS AND
SOUTHWEST 10-15KTS AFT 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN INTO A STEADY WESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONES WILL MAY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES. WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST.
VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 51 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 81 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 80 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 59 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 77 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 41 80 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 78 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 82 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 41 81 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 47 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 48 81 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 79 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 82 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 66 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 66 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 29 70 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 76 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 78 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 70 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 40 74 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 76 31 73 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 76 28 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 74 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 41 80 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 39 80 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 79 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ110>112.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
20/04 NOVLAN / LUNDEEN
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)