Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/03/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
WEAK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS...AND A NWLY SFC WIND OF <= 8KTS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
UPDATE...
FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FOR POP
AND WX FORECASTS...TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
55
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY. CURRENTLY SEEING A SUBSEVERE LINE MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH A FEW 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS BEING RECORDED.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...CELLS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WILL INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY
CATCH UP TO THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS AREA BY
MIDMORNING. DO BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT
SHOWS STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND MID DAY. GENERAL THINKING IS TO DISCOUNT THE
NAM...DO THINK STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NW WINDS BEING SEEN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE IS FCST TO CONT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO INDC A SERIES OF WEAK UPR LVL
IMPULSES WL AFFECT THE FA ABT EVERY 36 TO 48 HRS.
THE PD WL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYS PASSING QUICKLY N
OF AR ON THU. THIS SYS WL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS TODAY/S STORM
SYS...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING CDFNT
THRU AR. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FNT...SO ANY SVR WX IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE FA.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE REGION FOR FRI/FRI NGT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYS WL BRING A DRY FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR BY SAT...FOLLOWED
BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO
MODIFY ON SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD AND SLY WINDS RETURN. RAIN
CHCS WL AGAIN RETURN BY MON AS A NEW STORM SYS APCHS FM THE NW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 31 55 45 / 90 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 68 37 63 47 / 90 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 54 30 57 43 / 90 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 36 60 46 / 90 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 36 59 46 / 90 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 70 37 61 47 / 80 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 34 61 42 / 90 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 30 56 43 / 90 0 0 30
NEWPORT AR 61 31 54 45 / 90 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 67 37 58 45 / 90 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 33 60 42 / 90 0 0 30
SEARCY AR 67 31 54 42 / 90 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 67 34 56 44 / 90 0 0 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
755 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FOR POP
AND WX FORECASTS...TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY. CURRENTLY SEEING A SUBSEVERE LINE MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH A FEW 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS BEING RECORDED.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...CELLS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WILL INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY
CATCH UP TO THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS AREA BY
MIDMORNING. DO BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT
SHOWS STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND MID DAY. GENERAL THINKING IS TO DISCOUNT THE
NAM...DO THINK STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NW WINDS BEING SEEN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE IS FCST TO CONT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO INDC A SERIES OF WEAK UPR LVL
IMPULSES WL AFFECT THE FA ABT EVERY 36 TO 48 HRS.
THE PD WL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYS PASSING QUICKLY N
OF AR ON THU. THIS SYS WL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS TODAY/S STORM
SYS...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING CDFNT
THRU AR. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FNT...SO ANY SVR WX IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE FA.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE REGION FOR FRI/FRI NGT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYS WL BRING A DRY FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR BY SAT...FOLLOWED
BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO
MODIFY ON SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD AND SLY WINDS RETURN. RAIN
CHCS WL AGAIN RETURN BY MON AS A NEW STORM SYS APCHS FM THE NW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 31 55 45 / 90 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 68 37 63 47 / 90 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 54 30 57 43 / 90 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 36 60 46 / 90 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 36 59 46 / 90 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 70 37 61 47 / 80 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 34 61 42 / 90 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 30 56 43 / 90 0 0 30
NEWPORT AR 61 31 54 45 / 90 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 67 37 58 45 / 90 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 33 60 42 / 90 0 0 30
SEARCY AR 67 31 54 42 / 90 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 67 34 56 44 / 90 0 0 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
344 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY. CURRENTLY SEEING A SUBSEVERE LINE MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH A FEW 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS BEING RECORDED.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...CELLS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WILL INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY
CATCH UP TO THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS AREA BY
MIDMORNING. DO BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT
SHOWS STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND MID DAY. GENERAL THINKING IS TO DISCOUNT THE
NAM...DO THINK STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NW WINDS BEING SEEN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE IS FCST TO CONT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO INDC A SERIES OF WEAK UPR LVL
IMPULSES WL AFFECT THE FA ABT EVERY 36 TO 48 HRS.
THE PD WL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYS PASSING QUICKLY N
OF AR ON THU. THIS SYS WL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS TODAY/S STORM
SYS...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING CDFNT
THRU AR. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FNT...SO ANY SVR WX IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE FA.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE REGION FOR FRI/FRI NGT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYS WL BRING A DRY FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR BY SAT...FOLLOWED
BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO
MODIFY ON SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD AND SLY WINDS RETURN. RAIN
CHCS WL AGAIN RETURN BY MON AS A NEW STORM SYS APCHS FM THE NW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 31 55 45 / 80 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 68 37 63 47 / 80 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 54 30 57 43 / 80 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 36 60 46 / 80 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 36 59 46 / 80 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 70 37 61 47 / 80 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 34 61 42 / 80 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 30 56 43 / 80 0 0 30
NEWPORT AR 61 31 54 45 / 80 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 67 37 58 45 / 80 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 33 60 42 / 80 0 0 30
SEARCY AR 67 31 54 42 / 80 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 67 34 56 44 / 80 0 0 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1027 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND BRING TIMES OF PRECIP TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
AMTS VARY BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING MINIMAL AMOUNTS
WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE.
FOR TODAY...THE NAM HIGHLIGHTS A WAVE MOVING OVER THE NRN MTNS BUT
SHOWS ALMOST NOTHING WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP WHILE THE GFS AND EC
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF (0.1 INCH) FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES. IF
THE GFS AND EC ARE CORRECT...A QUICK 6 HOURS OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE PICTURE COMPLETELY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SATURATION WITH THE EC/GFS AND RUC WHILE THE NAM/S
SATURATED LAYER IS MUCH THINNER AND THUS...NO PRECIP. WILL LEAVE
SOME SLT CHC POPS IN FORECAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH WILL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE TODAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...ALMOST THE EXACT SAME THING HAPPENS AGAIN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH SOME PRECIP. FAVORED
AREAS IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BE THE NRN MTNS AND FLAT TOPS WITH
AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDAFTERNOON...GIVE OR TAKE. ANOTHER DAY OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLEARING. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CAUSING IT TO FLATTEN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH...ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE ARRIVES ACROSS THE BORDER REGION
BETWEEN CO AND WY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENED WAVE DESCRIBED
PREVIOUSLY WORKING ON THIS MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER REGIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. QPF
OUTPUT UNIMPRESSIVE SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER PAIR OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT...IN
GENERAL...BOTH MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FLOW VEERS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES ASHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD...SPLIT SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY...HOWEVER AS STATED
PREVIOUSLY...MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF MOISTURE IS LOW.
SINCE THE RIDGE WILL EXIST IN SOME FASHION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARRIVING
AHEAD OF THE DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO BEGIN THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN CO
AND WY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
DURING THE DAY. CIGS MAY DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE AND
KEGE AND POSSIBLY KRIL AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES. IN ADDITION...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE ELKHEAD...PARK...AND GORE RANGES AND THE
FLAT TOPS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED AT KVEL...KCAG...KEEO...KHDN OR KSBS. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL...HOWEVER...RESULT IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND BRING TIMES OF PRECIP TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
AMTS VARY BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING MINIMAL AMOUNTS
WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE.
FOR TODAY...THE NAM HIGHLIGHTS A WAVE MOVING OVER THE NRN MTNS BUT
SHOWS ALMOST NOTHING WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP WHILE THE GFS AND EC
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF (0.1 INCH) FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES. IF
THE GFS AND EC ARE CORRECT...A QUICK 6 HOURS OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE PICTURE COMPLETELY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SATURATION WITH THE EC/GFS AND RUC WHILE THE NAM/S
SATURATED LAYER IS MUCH THINNER AND THUS...NO PRECIP. WILL LEAVE
SOME SLT CHC POPS IN FORECAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH WILL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE TODAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...ALMOST THE EXACT SAME THING HAPPENS AGAIN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH SOME PRECIP. FAVORED
AREAS IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BE THE NRN MTNS AND FLAT TOPS WITH
AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDAFTERNOON...GIVE OR TAKE. ANOTHER DAY OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLEARING. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CAUSING IT TO FLATTEN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH...ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE ARRIVES ACROSS THE BORDER REGION
BETWEEN CO AND WY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENED WAVE DESCRIBED
PREVIOUSLY WORKING ON THIS MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER REGIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. QPF
OUTPUT UNIMPRESSIVE SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER PAIR OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT...IN
GENERAL...BOTH MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FLOW VEERS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES ASHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD...SPLIT SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY...HOWEVER AS STATED
PREVIOUSLY...MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF MOISTURE IS LOW.
SINCE THE RIDGE WILL EXIST IN SOME FASHION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARRIVING
AHEAD OF THE DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO BEGIN THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE BORDER
REGION BETWEEN CO AND WY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE ELKHEAD...PARK...AND GORE RANGES AND THE
FLAT TOPS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT KVEL...KCAG...KEEO...KHDN OR KSBS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL...HOWEVER...RESULT IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. MEANWHILE...RIDGE LEVEL WINDS
PICK UP DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1008 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS CREPT BACK UP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AS OF 6
PM...AND WILL THUS LET RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT....
CURRENTLY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EASILY BEING MET OVER SRN EL
PASO...ERN FREMONT...AND MOST OF PUEBLO COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS SO FAR AT
KPUB TODAY WAS 72 DEGREES...SETTING A NEW RECORD FOR MOST 70 DEGREE
OR HIGHER DAYS IN FEBRUARY...TEN. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE WARNED AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN GUST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SWRD THROUGH ERN CO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH. BY THAT TIME...RH LEVELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH SO
CURRENT TIMING OF THE RED FLAG LOOKS ON TARGET.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE CENTRAL
MTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT SHOWING
ANY PRECIP OUT OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHILE THE 18Z NAM
STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY PRECIP...IN PARTICULAR OVER KIOWA COUNTY.
WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POPS OF AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR AMOUNT
FOR THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
TOMORROW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BUT STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST OF MARCH. MARCH WILL DEFINITELY BE COMING
IN AS A LAMB...AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND THE AREA REMAINS COMPLETELY
DRY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
...POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT. ON WED A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WL BRING SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED...THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN AREAS...WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY. NOT SURE THAT ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WOULD OCCUR OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SO WL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WED WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS. RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG. THE
GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE WINDS THAN THE NAM...WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.
A WEAK UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THU...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AND LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE.
THAT UPR RIDGE THEN GETS FLATTENED THU NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. FRI THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE FROM MT AND
WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WL SEND A FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN CO
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY. ALOFT...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE REBUILDING OVR
THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY AND FRI NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
PCPN OVER THE MTN AREAS ON FRI. TEMPS ON FRI WL STILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AGAIN.
SUN AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. SOME
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD DURING
THE DAY. ON MON THE UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH PCPN STILL MAINLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AT TIMES TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB...ANTICIPATE THAT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
607 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
01/23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND ARCHING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS
MEAGER AT BEST SO DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE FAIRLY LOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND ITS ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTS WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY 25-35 MILE WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. 30-40 PERCENT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT THE
VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE POST- FRONTAL RAIN
BAND WILL BE DISSIPATING AT IT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST. A 30-40
PERCENT POP REGIME LOOKS REASONABLE FOR MOST ZONES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LOW...BUT THE LATEST RAP INSTABILITY PROGS
DO SHOW A SLIVER OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A RUMBLE OR TWO GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE CORRIDOR
FROM MILLEN-ALLENDALE TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST LOOKS
REASONABLE... ALTHOUGH HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ATYPICAL GIVEN
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE 40-45 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* NARROWED AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS PER LATEST
H3R/RAP OUTPUT.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMER CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING TO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARAMETERS REMAIN OVERALL UNIMPRESSIVE. LEFT
BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND CLEARING SKIES. DESPITE
THE COLD FRONT`S BEST EFFORTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S...APPROACHING 70 NEAREST THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER TERMINUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S NEAREST THE COAST AND
UPPER 30S INLAND. VERY LIGHT WINDS INLAND...POTENTIALLY CALM...AND
SMALL SCALE VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT COULD POTENTIALLY
LEAD TO PATCHES OF FROST AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
PROPER CONDITIONS DO MATERIALIZE...SUSPECT THAT ZONES NEEDING AN
ADVISORY WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON AT THE SURFACE BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT
TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S IN OUR SOUTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50
NEAR THE COAST.
A QUICK CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
STEADILY DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID 60S FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE A ABOUT A 2 HOURS WINDOW EITHER SIDE OF
11Z FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER PARAMETER IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
DISSIPATE OR ONLY REDUCE VSBYS NO LOWER THAN 6SM AT WORST IN ANY
LIGHT RAIN THAT COULD FALL. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 04Z UNTIL FROPA AROUND 11Z.
WINDS AT 1500-2000 FT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITIES OF BRIEF CEILING
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS LOW-
LEVEL JETTING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MIXING PROFILES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL...EXCEPT OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WERE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...MAX WINDS LOOK TO AVERAGE 15 KT OR SO WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD...2-5 FT FROM EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH WITH 4-6 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE TWO ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN ZONES 350/374 WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
BRIEF WINDOW OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS
FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
827 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
826 PM CST
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POP/WX BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE RUNS...PRIMARILY TO
TIGHTEN UP POP GRADIENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TO ADD SOME
DETAIL TO TIMING OF SNOW ONSET FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS INTO PARTS OF CHICAGO/KANKAKEE AREAS BY/SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS FROM 18Z 4KM NAM AND SEVERAL
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE KANKAKEE COUNTY IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH GUIDANCE FOCUSING BETTER (2-4)
SNOW ACCUMULATION AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SQI-
VYS-JOT-IKK AREAS.
MID-EVENING REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTING PATCHY BANDED RETURNS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF IL PORTION
OF CWA. STRONGER (20-25 DBZ) ECHOES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT
IN FORMING/WEAKENING IN REGIONS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKLY FOCUSED
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ALSO HELPING TO KEEP BETTER RETURNS
LIMITED INITIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY LARGE TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS BELOW ABOUT 700 MB AS DEPICTED BY EARLY EVENING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD/MDW. GRADUALLY SEEING MORE CLOUD LAYERS BELOW
5000 FT HOWEVER AND SAVANNA IL (KSFY) ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI TO OUR
WEST NOW REPORTING 3SM IN LIGHT SNOW...SO LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SOON ACROSS IL COUNTIES WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO.
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT TRANSIENT BASED ON
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE F-GEN FIELDS IN VARIOUS MODELS DURING THE
DURATION OF THIS EVENT...THOUGH PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE FORCING AROUND THE 285 K SURFACE INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER ASCENT DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY VORT TRACK LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF GREATEST QPF
FROM SQI/VYS THROUGH JOT/IKK AREAS...WHERE IT APPEARS AMOUNTS OF
3-4 INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY. AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO 1-2
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...AND INTO CENTRAL IL/IN WHERE
THERMAL PROFILES BECOME MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SO OVERALL...TRIED TO TIGHTEN UP POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNT AXIS JUST A
BIT BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS...ALONG WITH ADDING KANKAKEE
COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NO BIG DEAL...BUT TIMING
WILL IMPACT MORNING COMMUTE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
258 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT...SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN LATE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES BETWEEN 1-88 AND 1-80. THIS
ADVISORY IS STRICTLY FOR IMPACTS TO THE MORNING RUSH FROM THE SNOW
AS WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW WILL
PICK UP IN THE MORNING AFTER 4AM WITH MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN TO STEADY
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...ONLY EXPECTING 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH SNOW PICKING UP AND IMPACTING THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR. EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES TO BE FROM SOUTHWEST KANE COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO GRUNDY
COUNTY AND POINTS WEST...INCLUDING THE MENDOTA AND AMBOY AREAS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY SUNRISE. THE LOW CURRENTLY
FORMING OVER THE PLAINS REACHES THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT STEADY SNOW EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE QUITE EASILY. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO RENSSELAER IN LINE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS SOUTH OF THAT LINE MAY SEE A BREAK IN SNOW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE SNOW MAY
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND LEAD TO VERY LIGHT SNOW. HAVE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SOUTH OF THE PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SNOW INTENSIFIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DURING RUSH HOUR.
SNOW RATES INCREASE TO AROUND A HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT THE
BIGGER IMPACTS WILL BE VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES.
PERIODS OF 1/2SM VISIBILITY IS VERY PSBL...WHICH WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS.
EXPECTING THE INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY BECAUSE OMEGA INCREASES
JUST BELOW THE DGZ ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COULD SEE
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IF THE FORCING ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE DGZ. WINNEBAGO THROUGH LAKE IL COUNTIES IN FAR
NORTHERN IL WILL SEE LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS WHY THESE COUNTIES ARE
NOT IN THE ADVISORY.
AREAS WELL SOUTH OF 1-80 WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY SO
EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IS THE
REASON THIS AREA WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SATURATED SOUNDINGS WARM THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO ALL RAIN.
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY WITH EAST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH. AN
OCNL GUST TO 20 MPH IS PSBL. THE SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND A LITTLE...BUT
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOWER
WIND SPEEDS.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
249 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL BUT PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THEN PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ONE MORE TYPICAL OF
SPRING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE GET
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...
BACK END OF DEFORMATION ZONE FROM DEPARTING LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT DRY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY WITH MID LEVEL WAA OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STILL ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM MINNESOTA FRIDAY EVENING
TO ACROSS IL/IN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THEN
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FINALLY MAKING A STRONG SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MID
40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH SUNDAY...AND BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE/WET WEATHER AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CUT-OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER MIDWEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK BUT HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING/INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD VIRGA (SNOW ALOFT EVAPORATING BEFORE HITTING THE
GROUND) BREAKING OUT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEST INTO IOWA ALREADY.
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR STILL NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME
BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND...BUT PERSIST VIRGA SHOULD
EVENTUALLY EAT AWAY AT THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND ALLOW SNOW TO
PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE BY LATE EVENING OR MORE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE NUDGED THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW UP A BIT
FROM PREVIOUS TAF BASED ON THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE...BUT
OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO INHERITED TAFS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE VSBY GET DOWN TO 1/2SM...HOWEVER NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE IT AT THIS TIME.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
249 PM CST
WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP STARTING EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD LAKE
MICHIGAN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUNDAY AS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.2 INCHES STRETCHES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES
IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDDAY THURSDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE OF 30.2 INCHES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
LAKES SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.9 INCHES WILL DROP INTO MINNESOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY AND
MOVES TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019 UNTIL 10
AM THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...6 AM
THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Surface cold front has reached from Macomb to Pontiac this evening
with temperatures falling over ten degrees in an hour immediately
behind the front at Galesburg and Lacon. The front should reach at
least through Peoria and Bloomington, but could stall out before
reaching Lincoln and Champaign due to southerly flow ahead of a
developing low approaching from the west. Although radar
indicates echoes just behind the front, not finding any reports of
rain reaching the ground as low levels are quite dry and cloud
bases remain quite high. Increasing moist warm advection along the
frontal zone should allow precipitation to begin developing NW of
the Illinois River toward midnight...eventually spreading toward
the Indiana state line by daybreak. Also toward daybreak, enough
cold air spreading southward into Knox, Stark, and Marshall
counties that a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow are
possible. Further southeast, a changeover to snow, and perhaps
some brief sleet, is expected behind the low during the daytime
Tuesday, with only light or no accumulation. Isolated
thunderstorms late tonight and early Tuesday remain possible from
about Taylorville to Crawford County southward remain a
possibility. No significant updates needed to current forecast
which depicts the situation well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Latest surface map shows the cold front has dropped into northern
Illinois, from the north side of the Chicago metro to near Moline,
then westward into southern Nebraska. Main effect so far has been
extensive mid and high clouds north of the boundary, with scattered
clouds to the south. Temperatures at 2 pm over our forecast area
range from the mid 50s near the Indiana border, to the lower 60s
across most areas from highway 51 westward.
High-resolution model guidance brings the front to about a Macomb-
Bloomington-Hoopeston line by mid to late evening, where it should
hang up while low pressure tracks across northern Missouri
overnight. Have maintained some chance PoP`s late evening west of
the Illinois River, but am thinking most of the activity in our area
will be moving out of west central Illinois after midnight as a
substantial dry layer will be moistened from the top down. North of
the front, forecast soundings mostly above freezing in the lower
layers, with main threat for any freezing rain or sleet before
sunrise across the extreme northern CWA toward Toulon and Lacon.
South of the front, have introduced some mention of isolated
thunderstorms late tonight from about Taylorville to Effingham and
Flora, as MUCAPE`s off the RAP model indicate some modest
instability of a few hundred J/kg.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
There is relative agreement in the models on tracking the surface
low across Illinois roughly between I-70 and I-72. They also agree
that the low will move into Indiana by 18z/Noon on Tuesday, with the
Canadian the slowest, having the low center barely past the border
with Indiana at 18z. The very fast speed of movement will limit the
potential for snow, sleet and/or ice accumulation across our
counties, as precip will be diminishing or ending as the cold air
pushes farther southeast across our forecast area Tues afternoon.
Our areas north of I-74 will have the best potential to see few
tenths of an inch of snow or sleet accumulation, with the best
chances being from Galesburg to Lacon where the coldest air will
reside most of the day. Freezing rain potential will be mainly
between Galesburg and Lacon as well, as that area will most likely
not rise much above freezing if at all during the day on Tuesday.
As far as thunderstorms are concerned, we see some MUCAPE values of
100-200 J/Kg south of the track of the low, so we included a chance
of storms south of I-70 in the first half of the morning. Even in
the areas that see all rain, QPF amounts will struggle to climb
above 0.10" south of I-74. Any locations that see a thunderstorm
could climb up to a quarter inch.
Lingering light rain or snow will end by Tuesday evening for the
most part. Areas along the Indiana border could see trace amounts
of precip linger into the evening. Otherwise, northwest winds
gusting to 25 mph will usher in a colder airmass, as lows dip into
the teens north of I-74 and into the mid 20s south of I-70.
A brief period of high pressure on Wednesday will provide dry
conditions with slightly below normal highs in the upper 30s to low
40s.
The next wave of wintry weather will develop Wed evening in a warm
air advection regime. A warm frontal circulation is expected to
develop across IL by midnight, with frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer driving precip overnight. Then, low pressure is expected to
pass across southern IL, keeping a period of prolonged lift north of
the low in the TROWAL. The extended period of snow could help push
snow accums by Thursday afternoon into the 2 to 3 inch range north
of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Paris. Some rain could diminish
snow amounts just south of that line.
Precip will end Thursday night as high pressure builds into
Illinois. Friday will remain dry as well before yet another low
pressure system pushes across the area, this time across northern
Illinois. We kept slight chances of rain or snow for Friday night
N of I-74 and in most areas on Saturday. Beyond that, a warming
trend should develop, with dry conditions through the weekend and
into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A cold front currently aligned from KMQB-KBMI, but looks like it
will not reach KSPI-KCMI overnight. E-NE winds becoming breezy to
the north of the front, while S winds continue to the south. A
low pressure center will develop and approach rapidly from the
west...bringing chances for rain, MVFR cigs and vsby, and
potential for isold IFR cigs/vsby by early morning. Once the low
passes to the east...brisk NNW winds will develop at 15-20 kts
with gusts 25-30 kts. A period of sleet and snow showers will
also be possible in the afternoon. Have mentioned snow in KPIA-
KBMI-KCMI, but probabilities and timing uncertainties preclude
explicit mention at KSPI-KDEC at this time.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
200 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
A WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW BY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO SNOW WEST TO EAST THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY EVENING
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. ICE ACCUMULATION COULD APPROACH A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS AMONG MODELS
FOR SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS MAINLY DEALS WITH LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC LOW TRACK WHICH ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA AS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OVER TOP
ALONG WITH CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW LINE. AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET EXPECTED NEAR THE INDIANA AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO BUT COULD STILL VARY DEPENDING ON STORM
TRACK.
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING ALONG FRONT EVIDENT OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT PCPN ALONG LEADING BOUNDARY.
HIRES GUIDANCE TENDS TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS PCPN AND RADAR
TRENDS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA. WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE NORTH. BETTER FORCING FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPS LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM. FGEN RESPONSE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS
OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR SEVERAL RUNS WITH DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
PLACEMENT. MOST GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO OUR MI
COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH DEEPER COLD WEDGE IN PLACE BUT DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT...A MIX IS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.
WEAKLY COUPLED JET ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
WILL AID IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. FROM OUR VANTAGE POINT
IT APPEARS THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE A NICE COMPROMISE WITH SFC LOW
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH TAKING LOW FROM
NEAR SPRINGFIELD IL AT 12Z TO KGUS AT 18Z AND WEST OF KCLE BY
00Z/02. GFS REMAINS SOUTH WITH LOW JUST NORTH OF OHIO RIVER AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OH BY 00Z/02. THE NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH WARM SURGE ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE AND IS TAKING
MOST PCPN OVER TO FZRA ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE COLDER AND MAINLY SNOW. FOR THE POWT TOP DOWN PROCESS DID BLEND
IN RUC DATA AS FAR AS IT WILL GO OUT WITH THE COLDER GFS WHICH IS
CLOSER TO ECMWF IN THERMAL FIELDS THAN NAM. THE MAX LAYER
TEMPERATURE FOR THE RUC WAS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AS
WELL. CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH
MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET AT ONSET CENTRAL. COLDER AIR
THEN WRAPS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON CHANGING ANY RESIDUAL PCPN OVER
TO ALL SNOW.
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...MOST 12Z GUIDANCE DID TREND TOWARD LESS
PRECIPITATION WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION. NAM12 OF COURSE THE
OUTLIER WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTH. HIRES ARW SUPPORTS
THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF GFS...ECMWF AND GEM AND FORECAST FOR NOW HAS
LEANED TOWARD THESE MODELS USING WPC GUIDANCE. SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 2-
4 INCHES POSSIBLE FAR NORTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL DELTA T VALUES BUT DECENT CYCLONIC FETCH AND GOOD DGZ.
KEPT POPS IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH ACCUMS AN INCH OR
LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
MARGINAL CONDITIONS TO BEGIN WITH...A FEW TENTHS AT BEST AND
LIKELY JUST FLURRIES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SECOND PACIFIC WAVE SET TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY IN SIMILAR FASHION TO TOMORROWS EVENT. LATEST
MODELS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD...CLIPPING MOST
OF OUR CWA WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME HEALTHY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...GOOD UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH POTENTIAL FOR COUPLED
JETS...A RELATIVELY DEEP PV ANOMALY...STRONG MIDLEVEL CVA...AND A
DECENT STRIPE OF DEFORMATION/FGEN ON NORTHERN FLANK OF SURFACE LOW.
MAIN QUESTION WILL OF COURSE BE EXACT TRACK AND THE QUALITY OF
FORCING THIS FAR NORTH. LATEST 12Z MODELS ACTUALLY IN DECENT
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING PARENT JET ENERGY IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
AND ISSUES SEEN WITH CURRENT EVENT. DID ADD SOME LIKELY POPS TO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS AT THIS
RANGE. MAY BE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. GOOD (OR BAD?) NEWS
IS THAT THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIP DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM TO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND NARROW DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BUT MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO DISCUSS DETAILS AT
THIS POINT. OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE SHARP WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS AND MORE 60+
DEGREE WEATHER EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY BY TUES-WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDS TO START WILL GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY THROUGH MID-LT
MORNING TIMED W/INFLUX OF MSTR INADV OF SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING EWD
OUT OF NRN MO. PROXIMITY OF DEEPER POLAR AIRMASS NORTH OF KSBN
MAKES LT MORNING FCST QUITE TRICKY GIVEN AS YET CONSIDERABLE MODEL
BASED NOISE ON HOW FAST THIS WRAPS SWD INTO THIS SYS. REGARDLESS A
PD OF MIXED PCPN XPCD INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A RAPID CHG OVR TO
MOD/HVY SNOW THIS AFTN W/A PD OF LK EFFECT SHSN TWD MID EVENING.
KFWA LIES DEEPER IN LL WARM TONGUE AND XPCD TO START AS -RA TWD NOON
FOLLOWED BY A PD OF MOD SNOW BY LTR AFTN BUT OF LIMITED DURATION AS
SYS LIFTS OUT RAPIDLY NEWD. ERLY WINDS TO START WILL BACK NW THIS
AFTN W/GUSTS AOA 25KTS LIKELY FM LT AFTN THROUGH ERLY EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ003-004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ005-006.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ001.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN IL AND THIS PRODUCED 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 LAST NIGHT. THE ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A DEFORMATION
BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MOVING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN IA AND FAR NW IL AT MID MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THIS BAND. THIS BAND IS PROGRESSIVE AND
THE HRRR INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE DVN CWA BY NOON.
EVEN THOUGH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
HAVE CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF AREA ALONG HWY 30.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAPID DEMISE OF INTENSITY TO NORTHEAST IA SNOW.
CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BUT LEFT AS IS ALONG
THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW NEAR HWY 20 IN
NORTHEAST IA... AND WITH SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST IL NEXT FEW HRS AS ENERGY RIPPLES UP FROM
SOUTHWEST. RADAR MAY BE BEARING THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP STREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CWA ATTIM .
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
1006 MB SFC LOW WAS POSITIONED NORTH OF QUINCY IL AT 09Z. WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW. LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO BAND OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG/S OF I-80 AND SPOTTY SLEET AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
WHILE LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF STL METRO
SHIFTING EAST. TO OUR NORTHWEST RADAR SHOWS LARGE SWATH OF SNOW
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO FAR
NORTHEAST IA... SOUTHWEST WI AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CALLS TO SHERIFFS OFFICES INDICATE SNOW ACCUMS IN OUR CWA ARE
AROUND 1 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HWY 20 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN
FOUND AT TIMES WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES HERE
AT DVN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
HAVE REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JO DAVIESS AND
STEPHENSON COUNTIES WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... AND
CONTINUE THE ENTIRE ADVISORY (MOSTLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30)
THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHIFTING ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30 THIS
MORNING... ACCOMPANIED BY PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS WHICH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE... WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING FAVORED THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO FROM
HWY 30. SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY... WILL SEE LIKELY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP THIS WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING SHORT WINDOW OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AS
FORCING SYNCS UP WITH MOISTURE. THERMAL PARAMS FAVOR WINTRY MIX
ALONG/S OF I-80 CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING... WITH
ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS MOSTLY MINOR.
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN CWA BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS.
OTHERWISE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS... AND COLDER CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO SLOWLY DROP
IN THE 20S WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY TEENS TO AROUND 20... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS ANOTHER SNOW EVENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL QPF
AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DIFFERENT SNOW TOTALS.
ANOTHER LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY... NORTHWEST H5 FLOW WITH SSE SFC WINDS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER CLIPPER. THIS CLIPPER WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SOUTHERN CLIPPER...BUT DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN AS ANOTHER FGEN BAND SETS UP ON THE
NOSE OF H85 JET FROM GALESBURG SSE INTO IN. THE GFS PEGS THIS AREA
WITH HIGHER QPF THAN ANY OF THE MODELS. THE GFS IS ALSO THE DEEPEST
OF THE SFC LOWS AND THE FURTHEST NORTH. THIS NORTH JOG IS A CHANGE
FROM THE 12Z GEFS MEAN. AT THIS TIME...I BELIEVE THE GFS IS
OVERDONE. PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL FOR QPF. THIS GIVES MOST OF THE
AREA 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AN AREA OF 2 TO 3 ALONG THE ILLINOIS I80
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE NUMBERS TO CHANGE AS MORE OF THE WAVE IS
SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK NEAR 00Z WED. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HWO MENTION OF THE SNOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NW FLOW AND THE RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
IN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIKE THE OTHER SYSTEMS WHERE THE FORECAST SKILL WILL IMPROVE
DRAMATICALLY A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. ONCE THE CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE ALL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN TAKES
OVER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15+ ABOVE NORMAL.
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK... ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN AND IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
REMAINING VFR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
928 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN IL AND THIS PRODUCED 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 LAST NIGHT. THE ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A DEFORMATION
BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MOVING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN IA AND FAR NW IL AT MID MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THIS BAND. THIS BAND IS PROGRESSIVE AND
THE HRRR INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE DVN CWA BY NOON.
EVEN THOUGH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
HAVE CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF AREA ALONG HWY 30.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAPID DEMISE OF INTENSITY TO NORTHEAST IA SNOW.
CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BUT LEFT AS IS ALONG
THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW NEAR HWY 20 IN
NORTHEAST IA... AND WITH SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST IL NEXT FEW HRS AS ENERGY RIPPLES UP FROM
SOUTHWEST. RADAR MAY BE BEARING THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP STREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CWA ATTIM .
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
1006 MB SFC LOW WAS POSITIONED NORTH OF QUINCY IL AT 09Z. WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW. LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO BAND OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG/S OF I-80 AND SPOTTY SLEET AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
WHILE LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF STL METRO
SHIFTING EAST. TO OUR NORTHWEST RADAR SHOWS LARGE SWATH OF SNOW
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO FAR
NORTHEAST IA... SOUTHWEST WI AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CALLS TO SHERIFFS OFFICES INDICATE SNOW ACCUMS IN OUR CWA ARE
AROUND 1 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HWY 20 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN
FOUND AT TIMES WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES HERE
AT DVN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
HAVE REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JO DAVIESS AND
STEPHENSON COUNTIES WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... AND
CONTINUE THE ENTIRE ADVISORY (MOSTLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30)
THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHIFTING ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30 THIS
MORNING... ACCOMPANIED BY PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS WHICH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE... WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING FAVORED THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO FROM
HWY 30. SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY... WILL SEE LIKELY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP THIS WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING SHORT WINDOW OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AS
FORCING SYNCS UP WITH MOISTURE. THERMAL PARAMS FAVOR WINTRY MIX
ALONG/S OF I-80 CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING... WITH
ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS MOSTLY MINOR.
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN CWA BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS.
OTHERWISE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS... AND COLDER CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO SLOWLY DROP
IN THE 20S WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY TEENS TO AROUND 20... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS ANOTHER SNOW EVENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL QPF
AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DIFFERENT SNOW TOTALS.
ANOTHER LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY... NORTHWEST H5 FLOW WITH SSE SFC WINDS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER CLIPPER. THIS CLIPPER WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SOUTHERN CLIPPER...BUT DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN AS ANOTHER FGEN BAND SETS UP ON THE
NOSE OF H85 JET FROM GALESBURG SSE INTO IN. THE GFS PEGS THIS AREA
WITH HIGHER QPF THAN ANY OF THE MODELS. THE GFS IS ALSO THE DEEPEST
OF THE SFC LOWS AND THE FURTHEST NORTH. THIS NORTH JOG IS A CHANGE
FROM THE 12Z GEFS MEAN. AT THIS TIME...I BELIEVE THE GFS IS
OVERDONE. PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL FOR QPF. THIS GIVES MOST OF THE
AREA 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AN AREA OF 2 TO 3 ALONG THE ILLINOIS I80
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE NUMBERS TO CHANGE AS MORE OF THE WAVE IS
SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK NEAR 00Z WED. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HWO MENTION OF THE SNOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NW FLOW AND THE RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
IN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIKE THE OTHER SYSTEMS WHERE THE FORECAST SKILL WILL IMPROVE
DRAMATICALLY A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. ONCE THE CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE ALL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN TAKES
OVER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15+ ABOVE NORMAL.
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK... ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN AND IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME IFR THIS AM. CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL EXIST THROUGH 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR TO NORTHWEST OF
DBQ-CID TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
AND REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES AT 15-25 KTS TODAY. LATE TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH BLO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
139 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NW FLOW WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS COMPLETELY MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINING
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW GENERALLY RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY
BE "COOLER" TODAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SLOWLY RETREATING
TO THE EAST. WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...POSSIBLY NEAR 60 DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON MIXING. SHORTWAVE
RIDING AND STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT MIXING COMPLICATING HIGHS AND WINDS. EVEN THEN IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70F EVEN IF CLOUD COVER
LIMITS POTENTIAL. LESS CLOUD COVER AND WE COULD SEE LOCATIONS
APPROACH 80F. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 10F...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...I HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY MODELS
BELOW 700MB. NAM BL TDS ALSO APPEAR OVERDONE AND THIS IS THE ONE
MODEL THAT SHOWS ANY KIND OF ML/MU CAPE. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER CORRELATING WITH THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL FROM NAM/GFS (THOUGH GFS
FAVORS THE NE). I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
PLACE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...BUT AM NOT SOLD. IF NAM SOLUTION PANS
OUT I COULD ACTUALLY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEING FAVORED...AGAIN LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
REMAIN DRY WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIPITATION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL SEE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. DEW POINTS APPEAR TO STAY HIGH
ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY BUT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRESENTS PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE FOUR CORNERS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY
APPEARS TO MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS GETTING
DRY SLOTTED. HOWEVER ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING. COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE
LACKING SO AS IT LOOKS NOW THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR BOTH SITES
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 19
TO 23 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KGLD. AT THAT TIME
SUSTAINED WIND WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 23 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NW FLOW WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS COMPLETELY MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINING
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW GENERALLY RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY
BE "COOLER" TODAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SLOWLY RETREATING
TO THE EAST. WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...POSSIBLY NEAR 60 DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON MIXING. SHORTWAVE
RIDING AND STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT MIXING COMPLICATING HIGHS AND WINDS. EVEN THEN IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70F EVEN IF CLOUD COVER
LIMITS POTENTIAL. LESS CLOUD COVER AND WE COULD SEE LOCATIONS
APPROACH 80F. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 10F...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...I HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY MODELS
BELOW 700MB. NAM BL TDS ALSO APPEAR OVERDONE AND THIS IS THE ONE
MODEL THAT SHOWS ANY KIND OF ML/MU CAPE. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER CORRELATING WITH THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL FROM NAM/GFS (THOUGH GFS
FAVORS THE NE). I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
PLACE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...BUT AM NOT SOLD. IF NAM SOLUTION PANS
OUT I COULD ACTUALLY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEING FAVORED...AGAIN LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WARM AND DRY FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A HINT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. BY SATURDAY WITH THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTH AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWEST AS A BROADER TROUGH CARVES OUT AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE PRESENTING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE AREAS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
DONE VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY ANYTHING FROM WHAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION GAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR BOTH SITES
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 19
TO 23 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KGLD. AT THAT TIME
SUSTAINED WIND WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 23 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS LLJ BUILDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO ALLOW RH VALUES TO
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT MIXING WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS...THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING RFW
RH/WIND CRITERIA FOR THE NECESSARY 3HR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
(PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST). IT COULD BE VERY CLOSE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...SO I DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
423 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NW FLOW WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS COMPLETELY MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINING
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW GENERALLY RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY
BE "COOLER" TODAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SLOWLY RETREATING
TO THE EAST. WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...POSSIBLY NEAR 60 DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON MIXING. SHORTWAVE
RIDING AND STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT MIXING COMPLICATING HIGHS AND WINDS. EVEN THEN IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70F EVEN IF CLOUD COVER
LIMITS POTENTIAL. LESS CLOUD COVER AND WE COULD SEE LOCATIONS
APPROACH 80F. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 10F...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...I HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY MODELS
BELOW 700MB. NAM BL TDS ALSO APPEAR OVERDONE AND THIS IS THE ONE
MODEL THAT SHOWS ANY KIND OF ML/MU CAPE. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER CORRELATING WITH THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL FROM NAM/GFS (THOUGH GFS
FAVORS THE NE). I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
PLACE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...BUT AM NOT SOLD. IF NAM SOLUTION PANS
OUT I COULD ACTUALLY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEING FAVORED...AGAIN LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WARM AND DRY FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A HINT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. BY SATURDAY WITH THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTH AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWEST AS A BROADER TROUGH CARVES OUT AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE PRESENTING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE AREAS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
DONE VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY ANYTHING FROM WHAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION GAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 500-1500 FT AGL CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH CURRENT WINDS ALREADY
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT KMCK DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS...AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS VFR PREVAILING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 20-25KT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A DECREASING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION
EASTWARD...BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COLORADO STATE
LINE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS LLJ BUILDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO ALLOW RH VALUES TO
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT MIXING WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS...THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING RFW
RH/WIND CRITERIA FOR THE NECESSARY 3HR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
(PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST). IT COULD BE VERY CLOSE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...SO I DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
258 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NW FLOW WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS COMPLETELY MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINING
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW GENERALLY RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY
BE "COOLER" TODAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SLOWLY RETREATING
TO THE EAST. WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...POSSIBLY NEAR 60 DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON MIXING. SHORTWAVE
RIDING AND STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT MIXING COMPLICATING HIGHS AND WINDS. EVEN THEN IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70F EVEN IF CLOUD COVER
LIMITS POTENTIAL. LESS CLOUD COVER AND WE COULD SEE LOCATIONS
APPROACH 80F. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 10F...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...I HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY MODELS
BELOW 700MB. NAM BL TDS ALSO APPEAR OVERDONE AND THIS IS THE ONE
MODEL THAT SHOWS ANY KIND OF ML/MU CAPE. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER CORRELATING WITH THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL FROM NAM/GFS (THOUGH GFS
FAVORS THE NE). I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
PLACE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...BUT AM NOT SOLD. IF NAM SOLUTION PANS
OUT I COULD ACTUALLY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEING FAVORED...AGAIN LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WARM AND DRY FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A HINT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. BY SATURDAY WITH THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTH AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWEST AS A BROADER TROUGH CARVES OUT AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE PRESENTING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE AREAS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
DONE VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY ANYTHING FROM WHAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION GAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY FEW-SCT250 W/
SOME PERIODS OF SKC LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR WINDS...KGLD
WILL NW 5-15KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS 15Z-22Z TUESDAY...THEN
BECOME SW AROUND 10KTS BY 02Z WEDNESDAY. KMCK WILL SEE WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS 17Z-23Z TUESDAY...THEN WSW AROUND
10KTS BY 23Z TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS LLJ BUILDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO ALLOW RH VALUES TO
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT MIXING WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS...THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING RFW
RH/WIND CRITERIA FOR THE NECESSARY 3HR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
(PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST). IT COULD BE VERY CLOSE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...SO I DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1052 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IA...ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO
WESTERN SD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN KS...INTO SW KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN CO/KS BY 12Z TUE. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP AND WITH LIMITED
CAPPING...STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY FLIRT WITH FAR SOUTHERN KS AFTER 03Z. BOTH NAM
AND RAP AGREE ON BETWEEN 1,000-2,000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME DIME SIZE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KS.
WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK TO NW FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED WITH YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THU. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO WARM TEMPS UP WED WITH
AREAS WEST OF I-135 GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S. THESE WARMER TEMPS
ARE SUPPORTED BY 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPS ALONG WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY
AFFECT ONLY NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS. SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI. ALL
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A MORE ROBUST
TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MUCH
WEAKER IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE WARMEST.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30-39 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE GUSTS DROP OFF SOME. THE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER EFFECTS.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY YIELD SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT (RSL/GBD/SLN/HUT/ICT).
STRONGER 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TARGETS FAR SOUTHEAST KS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THINK THE BRUNT OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CNU TERMINAL.
JMC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED FOR TUE AND
ESPECIALLY WED.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
TUE. AFTERNOON SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE SPEEDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE
30-40% RANGE TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER AREA WIDE.
THE BIGGER FIRE CONCERN DAY WILL BE WED WHEN WINDS FLIP BACK
AROUND TO THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ON WED AFTERNOON ALONG AND SE OF THE
KS TURNPIKE WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN
THE 20-30% RANGE TO PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO THE
UPPER END OF VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH
EXTREME. THEREFORE...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED BOTH TUE AND WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 56 34 68 / 20 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 54 32 68 / 20 0 0 0
NEWTON 34 53 32 66 / 20 0 0 0
ELDORADO 36 54 32 65 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 39 56 33 68 / 30 10 0 0
RUSSELL 32 56 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 35 56 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 33 52 31 66 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 34 52 31 67 / 20 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 41 55 31 64 / 60 20 0 0
CHANUTE 38 52 30 62 / 30 20 0 0
IOLA 36 50 29 62 / 30 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 40 53 29 63 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
934 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Starting to see some decent signal for a drier forecast overnight
and Thursday over the north/northeast portions of the area. The
00Z NAM keeps the entire area dry through 12Z, and then spreads
precipitation eastward through southeast Missouri and much of west
Kentucky. The latest RAP and HRRR runs also have trended this way.
Decided to trend drier over the Evansville Tri State and the
Pennyrile region of west Kentucky through 12Z, and then blend with
the likely to categorical PoPs throughout the area later in the
day. Also trended warmer with overnight temperatures in the east,
with most places not likely to drop much from current levels,
unless there is enough precipitation to wet bulb which is unlikely.
UPDATE issued at 525 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 258 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Clouds are starting to increase now, and will be working down from
the mid levels overnight as showers set in tmrw. Instability
parameters keep thunder chances just outside (mainly south) of PAH
FA thru the event, but with the surface/upper Low tracks across
the FA, wouldnt be shocked to see an isolated stroke. No consensus
for adding though, so went just showers for the event.
The system is positively tilted, filling, and weakening as it
moves across the FA. Good moisture influx and deep column moisture
advection means main impact will be qpf, with low end totals of
1/4 to 1/2" expected, and high end amounts approaching 1" not out
of the realm of possibility.
While a lingering sprinkle or two is not of the question, the
wetting rain event is over tmrw. Moisture does take awhile to
scour, so clouds could be stubborn/hang into Friday, particularly
east, before clearing out in earnest.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
The more significant weather during the extended period will be
focused toward the last day of the seven day forecast period
(Tuesday).
Through at least Sunday, the WFO PAH forecast area is expected to
gradually shift from northwest flow ahead of slowly moving westward
tilted upper level high pressure ridge to southerly flow as this
ridge axis moves over the area during the day on Sunday.
The net effect for the weekend will be dry weather and warmer
temperatures.
From Sunday night onward, both ensemble and deterministic guidance
carve out a convoluted mean trough over the western 1/2 of the U.S.
with successive shortwaves deepening the trough. There is a wide
variability in the exact location/orientation of the trough via the
12z Wednesday deterministic GFS/ECMWF, but both seem to show an
initial progressive trough over the northern Mexico and the desert
Southwest U.S., before becoming meridional by early Wednesday.
Given the open and strong fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture and the
persistent nature of the baroclinic gradient on the east side of
this trough, anticipate isentropically lifted shower activity will
dominate parts of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, as early
as Sunday night and persisting through Monday night.
Initially, it looks like Tuesday into Wednesday of next week (just
beyond the seven day forecast period) will be interesting. Model
Analogs from the GFS Ensemble suggest that there will be around a
50% probability of close to one half inch of rain with a 30%
probability in excess of one inch, mainly over Southeast Missouri and
part of Southwest Illinois. NCEP modeling center QPF plumes suggest
an average 2" precipitation between 12z Tuesday to 12z Wednesday of
next week centered near Paducah. An Atmospheric River forecast
forecast prog (presented by our SOO), suggests that deep moisture
will be working up the Mississippi River next week. The only caveat
to a heavy rain setup for part of the WFO PAH forecast area will be
intervening convective development that could occur over the Lower
Mississippi Valley, impacting parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and
Tennessee.
Regardless, it will be worth watching and planning for heavy rain
potential and possible severe weather early next week, beginning
with the Monday/Tuesday time frame. SPC is already monitoring the
potential for severe weather for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 525 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Widespread mid clouds above 10k feet will continue through the
night, possibly producing some virga. Unusually dry southeast winds
will evaporate the precip before it reaches the ground. Between 12z
and 18z Thursday, the low levels will moisten up as heavier
precipitation starts falling through the column. Cigs and vsbys will
lower to mvfr. Conditions after 18z may further deteriorate to ifr,
depending on precip coverage and intensity. The 00z tafs will
forecast ifr at kevv/kowb based on their cooler, more easterly wind
flow.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
500 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE FRONT JUST ENTERING N VERNON/RAPIDES
NOW...AFFECTING THE AEX TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THUS...EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR VRB20G35KT & MVFR TO IFR VSBY
CEILING WITH TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VCSH TO
DEAL WITH THE NEXT 3 HOURS UNTIL FROPA...AS THE STRONGEST STORMS
LIKELY TO STAY NE OF AREA AFTER CLEARING C LA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY A WIND DIRECTIONAL FORECAST THRU TUE
AFTERNOON.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND THROUGH EAST TEXAS. FEATURE ADVANCING
SOUTH AT AROUND 20 MPH. RADAR AT THIS TIME SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG FRONT. EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGS FRONT TO A JASPER TO AEX LINE AROUND 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR MOVING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND INTO THE NEAR GULF WATERS TOWARD MID-EVENING. WILL BE
MAINTAINING LOW END RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THEN RETURNS WEDNESDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME AGAIN TO
APPEAR LIMITED AS CAPPING HOLDS AND MOISTURE RETURN
MEAGER. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE THE NORM.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A ROBUST SYSTEM INCOMING IN A
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME OF THE NEW WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
MARINE...A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS EVENING. A
MODERATE BUT BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL AGAIN TREND SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BECOMING OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 46 69 51 75 / 10 0 10 30
LCH 52 70 56 76 / 20 0 10 20
LFT 51 69 53 75 / 20 0 0 20
BPT 52 70 57 77 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
319 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND THROUGH EAST TEXAS. FEATURE ADVANCING
SOUTH AT AROUND 20 MPH. RADAR AT THIS TIME SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG FRONT. EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGS FRONT TO A JASPER TO AEX LINE AROUND 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR MOVING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND INTO THE NEAR GULF WATERS TOWARD MID-EVENING. WILL BE
MAINTAINING LOW END RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THEN RETURNS WEDNESDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME AGAIN TO
APPEAR LIMITED AS CAPPING HOLDS AND MOISTURE RETURN
MEAGER. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE THE NORM.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A ROBUST SYSTEM INCOMING IN A
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME OF THE NEW WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS EVENING. A
MODERATE BUT BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL AGAIN TREND SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BECOMING OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 46 69 51 75 / 10 0 10 30
LCH 52 70 56 76 / 20 0 10 20
LFT 51 69 53 75 / 20 0 0 20
BPT 52 70 57 77 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
931 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND A COMBINATION OF SFC CAP OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND 925 TO 850 MB CAP FURTHER SOUTH...WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 40 PERCENT OVER SW AR TO 20
PERCENT OVER EAST TX. MAY FURTHER LOWER POPS DEPENDING ON TRENDS
BY MIDDAY AS COLD FRONT TO THE WEST BEGINS TO ENTER RED RIVER
VALLEY PORTION OF OUR AREA. LOW LVL CAPPING ALSO MAINTAINING LOW
CLOUD COVER WITH SOME LGT DRIZZLE. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...A COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS IFR/MVFR/VFR AREAWIDE AND SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NORTH
AT THIS TIME...BUT LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH VCTY MENTION FROM 15-21Z.
OUR SFC WINDS ARE AND WILL BE S/SW 10-20KTS...SHIFTING TO NW
15-25KTS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FROPA 17-21Z
FOR OUR TERMINALS FROM W TO E AND N TO S. OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE
BRISK FROM SW 25-50KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET...THEN VEER
TO WEST INTO THE MID LEVELS 30-75KTS INTO LEVEL FLIGHT. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SE OK/SW AR THIS MORNING. DESPITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL REFLECTIVITY VALUES ON RADAR...LATEST MRMS LOOPS HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING VALUES AT THE -20 DEGREE C LEVEL. THIS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING. I EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THERE IS LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION VERSUS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS MUCH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH...SO THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS SE OK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
SRN AR/NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR/E TX. SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND THE CENTER
OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL NICELY TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM DE QUEEN AR TO LUFKIN TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 42 69 53 / 30 0 0 10
MLU 67 42 64 47 / 40 10 0 10
DEQ 62 33 64 46 / 20 0 0 20
TXK 64 39 65 50 / 20 0 0 20
ELD 65 36 65 47 / 30 0 0 10
TYR 67 43 69 55 / 20 0 0 10
GGG 66 40 68 54 / 20 0 0 10
LFK 70 42 70 52 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>111-124-125-136.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...A COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS IFR/MVFR/VFR AREAWIDE AND SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NORTH
AT THIS TIME...BUT LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH VCTY MENTION FROM 15-21Z.
OUR SFC WINDS ARE AND WILL BE S/SW 10-20KTS...SHIFTING TO NW
15-25KTS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FROPA 17-21Z
FOR OUR TERMINALS FROM W TO E AND N TO S. OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE
BRISK FROM SW 25-50KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET...THEN VEER
TO WEST INTO THE MID LEVELS 30-75KTS INTO LEVEL FLIGHT. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SE OK/SW AR THIS MORNING. DESPITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL REFLECTIVITY VALUES ON RADAR...LATEST MRMS LOOPS HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING VALUES AT THE -20 DEGREE C LEVEL. THIS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING. I EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THERE IS LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION VERSUS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS MUCH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH...SO THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS SE OK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
SRN AR/NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR/E TX. SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND THE CENTER
OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL NICELY TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM DE QUEEN AR TO LUFKIN TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 42 69 53 / 40 0 0 10
MLU 72 42 64 47 / 40 10 0 10
DEQ 67 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 20
TXK 69 39 65 50 / 60 0 0 20
ELD 70 36 65 47 / 60 0 0 10
TYR 71 43 69 55 / 30 0 0 10
GGG 71 40 68 54 / 30 0 0 10
LFK 75 42 70 52 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ050-051-059.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.
&&
$$
24/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SE OK/SW AR THIS MORNING. DESPITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL REFLECTIVITY VALUES ON RADAR...LATEST MRMS LOOPS HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING VALUES AT THE -20 DEGREE C LEVEL. THIS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING. I EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THERE IS LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION VERSUS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS MUCH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH...SO THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS SE OK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
SRN AR/NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR/E TX. SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND THE CENTER
OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL NICELY TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM DE QUEEN AR TO LUFKIN TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 42 69 53 / 40 0 0 10
MLU 72 42 64 47 / 40 10 0 10
DEQ 67 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 20
TXK 69 39 65 50 / 60 0 0 20
ELD 70 36 65 47 / 60 0 0 10
TYR 71 43 69 55 / 30 0 0 10
GGG 71 40 68 54 / 30 0 0 10
LFK 75 42 70 52 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ050-051-059.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1008 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...993MB LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR THE ME/NB BORDER...WITH 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE SKY IS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A BREEZY NW WIND. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S THIS EVENING AS THE WIND SLACKENS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S OVER FAR SE VA AND COASTAL NE NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER ERN CANADA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON) WILL TRACK FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TRACK ENE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG AND OFF THE
COAST EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER NEW ENGLAND. 02/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING THAT THE LOW DEEPENS ABOUND
20MB/12HR AS IT TRACKS NE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST...TO THE NC OUTER
BANKS...AND THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST 06-18Z FRIDAY. THE LOW
THEN RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E THURSDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER
THICKENING AND LOWERING BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE W AS THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. A 20-30% POP IS FORECAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...BUT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S.
POPS INCREASE FROM THE W THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO THE WRN
SYSTEM...BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO A STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BAND DEVELOPING ON
THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE TEMPERATURES/WET-BULBS WILL BE
CHALLENGING AND WILL LIKELY HINGE ON PCPN INTENSITY AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH TO THE N. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REMAIN
AOB 1300M FROM ROUGHLY N AND W OF LINES FROM FVX-RIC THEN RIC-
CGE...AND IF PCPN INTENSITY IS ENOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 30-32F. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SNOW IN THIS CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED
ON FORECAST QPF...AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES (1530-1540M) SUPPORTING
8:1-10:1 RATIOS THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF 2-3" OF SNOW WITH THE
CURRENT MAXIMA SHOWN FROM RICHMOND CITY N AND W. GIVEN MARGINAL SFC
TEMPS...THE MAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR ON THE GRASS AND OTHER
NON-PAVED SURFACES. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE `SWEET SPOT`
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. ACROSS SE VA/NE NC...PERIODS OF MDT/HVY RAIN
COULD RESULT IN QPF OF 1.5-2.0". THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX (NOT EXPECTING MUCH IP EXCEPT AT THE ONSET)...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW TO NOTHING. A NNE WIND
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS WITH
SPEEDS OF 20-30MPH POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
DRIER AIR QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE W BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SKY
WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SATURDAY OF 45-50.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP ACRS THE REGION SAT NGT THRU SUN
MORNG...BRINGING A CHC OR SLGT CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN COUNTIES...AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS THE SRN COUNTIES. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...HI PRES WILL
BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA SUN AFTN INTO MON...THEN SLIDES TO OFF
THE MID ATLC CST FOR LATE MON THRU WED. SO...EXPECT DRY WX SUN
AFTN THRU WED WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPS. LOWS RANGING THRU
THE 30S SAT NGT AND SUN NGT...IN THE LWR TO MID 40S MON NGT...AND
IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SUN...IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MON...IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
TUE...AND IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY.
AS OF 23Z...GUSTY NW WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING AND A
BREEZE OF 5 TO 8 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS TURN TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AT THE NORTH
CAORLINA COAST. FROM THERE...THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND BUT A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
RAIN DEVELOPS AT THE TAF SITES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
AND VISBILITIES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT RIC AND SBY
WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION PSBL MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS INDICATED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE BAY AND HIGHER OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE 20NM MARINE
ZONE ARE 5 FT OR HIGHER... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HRRR WHICH IS CLOSE TO RAP WHICH KEEP WINDS UP
THROUGH 06Z THEN DIMINISH BY 09Z. HAVE SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY
AND COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 09Z. NO SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS OR
SOUND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED HEADLINES FOR SCA`S IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM INTO
THIS EVENG FOR THE RIVERS/CURRITUCK SND (7 PM)...AND THE CHES
BAY/SRN THREE CSTL WTRS (10 PM)...AND INTO TNGT FOR THE TWO CSTL
WTRS (1 AM). SFC HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE WTRS TNGT THRU
THU MORNG...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING NNW WINDS AND SUBSIDING
WAVES/SEAS. THE HI WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA THU AFTN INTO THU
EVENG...AS LO PRES DROPS THRU THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GULF CST
STATES. CONDITIONS THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE THU NGT INTO FRI
MORNG...AS LO PRES RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES RIGHT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
NC/SE VA CST. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EXACT
TRACK...BUT CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EITHER
STRONG SCA OR GALES ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST
12Z/02 MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE WTRS
LATE THU NGT INTO FRI EVENG...AND HAVE GUSTS TO 40 KT OVR THE CSTL
WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH FRI NGT INTO SAT...AS THE LO MOVES AWAY TO
THE ENE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE WNW. CSTL SEAS MAY BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE THRU SAT DUE TO SWELL.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
547 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 550PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES TO THIS
EVENINGS RAINFALL AND UPDATED TEMPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE. THE UPDATE IN TEMPERATURES DID ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT
LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS
AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN
EARLIER PROGGED...ACRS NRN OH AND LAKE ERIE. WITH THE SFC LOW
DEEPENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LVL JET AND
MIXING AFT FROPA...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 50 MPH.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD
ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. NR TERM GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WED MRNG...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AS THE UPR TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY
RGN THU...AS ANOTHER ADVANCES ACRS THE LWR GREAT LAKES THU NGT.
MDLS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF AND SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS SEEMED THE
MOST REASONABLE ATTM AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED... RESULTING IN A LGT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST LATER THU AND THU NGT...THOUGH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ESP S OF
PIT.
SNOW CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING THE
LATEST SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...SO THE SUPERBLEND WAS HEAVILY
USED TO FLESH OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WL GENERATE GUSTY SE TO S WIND TODAY AS IT
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE LOW DRAWS NEAR AND MIXING IMPROVES THIS AFTN.
RAPID CONDITION DEGRADATION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN/EVE
AS SHWRS DVLP WITH THE ADVN OF THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
LCL IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS IS CONFIDENTLY FORECAST.
LLVL AND/OR SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS
THE CROSSING LOW DRAGS A CDFNT ACRS THE IMMEDIATE AREA SHORTLY
AFTR NIGHTFALL. SNOW SHWRS WITH LCL IFR AND MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND SCT SNOW SHWRS WL CONT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW. ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY
TO BRING MORE DEGRADATIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>511.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT
LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS
AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN
EARLIER PROGGED...ACRS NRN OH AND LAKE ERIE. LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM WITH FROPA THIS EVE. WITH
THE SFC LOW DEEPENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LVL
JET AND MIXING AFT FROPA...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 50 MPH.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD
ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. NR TERM GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WED MRNG...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AS THE UPR TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY
RGN THU...AS ANOTHER ADVANCES ACRS THE LWR GREAT LAKES THU NGT.
MDLS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF AND SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS SEEMED THE
MOST REASONABLE ATTM AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED... RESULTING IN A LGT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST LATER THU AND THU NGT...THOUGH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ESP S OF
PIT.
SNOW CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING THE
LATEST SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...SO THE SUPERBLEND WAS HEAVILY
USED TO FLESH OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WL GENERATE GUSTY SE TO S WIND TODAY AS IT
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE LOW DRAWS NEAR AND MIXING IMPROVES THIS AFTN.
RAPID CONDITION DEGRADATION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN/EVE
AS SHWRS DVLP WITH THE ADVN OF THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
LCL IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS IS CONFIDENTLY FORECAST.
LLVL AND/OR SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS
THE CROSSING LOW DRAGS A CDFNT ACRS THE IMMEDIATE AREA SHORTLY
AFTR NIGHTFALL. SNOW SHWRS WITH LCL IFR AND MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND SCT SNOW SHWRS WL CONT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW. ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY
TO BRING MORE DEGRADATIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
640 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN LAKES. WITH THE LIGHT NRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...LOW LEVEL CONV
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -18C SUPPORTED
SCT LES FROM ERN ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY.
TONIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING OR EVEN A MESO-LOW OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE LIGHT LES INTO ERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LAND BREEZES AND LAKE INDUCED CIRCULATIONS BECOME
MORE PROMINENT. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE LES NEAR THE ERN CWA
SHORELINE WILL DEVELOP IS LOW BUT THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AOB 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. ANY LES ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
REMAIN OFF SHORE. HOWEVER...A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW FROM LAKE MI MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE GARDEN PENINSULA OR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. AGAIN IN THE WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT...CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY LES THAT WILL AFFECT THE CWA IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
BY 00Z FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND FAR SE
ONTARIO AND S QUEBEC. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BE ACCENTUATED BY AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN ON THE
NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC LOW WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA 09Z-21Z FRIDAY...AS
850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND -12C.
WAA TAKES HOLD OVER UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT NEARING FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS E ND/W MN. WAA SNOW WILL INVADE
W UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL MN AND
850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C. WHILE MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE
SFC LOW SINKING ACROSS CENTRAL WI FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING OVER UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS AN OUTLIER
BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE OUR FCST WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH...SHIFTING THE LOW ACROSS S WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST PRECIP TO AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER
WHERE 850MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -7C. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. QPF TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND
0.10 INCHES TO AROUND 0.20 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST EXPECTED ALONG
THE WI BORDER WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE LOCATED. THESE QPF
TOTALS WITH AROUND 13 TO 15 TO SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL GIVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. AGAIN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE WI BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC SATURDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...WITH ONLY A BRIEF TURN OF THE SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NW. BUT
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C OVER THE E HALF...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
WAA WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
LOW EXITS E AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS BY 18Z SUNDAY
WILL INCREASE TO 0 TO 6C /HIGHEST OFF THE GFS AS IT INDICATES 850MB
W-SW FLOW OF 40-55KTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/. EXPECT
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP TO START SUNDAY EVENING AS RAIN. THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES...SO WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS. A REBOUNDING 500MB
RIDGE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN INCREASED WAA INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY 12Z TUESDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
8C...ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 50F. WITH A STACKED SFC-
500MB LOW ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AND W MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
COULD BE AN INTERESTING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL
WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS GET MORE IN LINE BEFORE JUMPING ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO EJECT NE...SLIDING JUST NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY EVENING-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE S END OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE OVER WI/UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT AVERAGE NEARLY 12HRS. COULD BE A
WET AND WARM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME BKN CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AT KCMX LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IF THERE ARE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTION TO OCCUR. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS
IN WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH SAT. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SUN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO INCREASES
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO 25 KTS BY MON AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE NRN LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT LOW OVER NE
CANADA. A LARGE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM WI INTO
IL AND LOW PRES OVER ERN IL REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. NW
FLOW LES INTO THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C
WAS LIMITED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 4K FT AND VERY DRY AIR
UPSTREAM FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SHORTER FETCH INTO WRN UPPER
MI...MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV INTO ALGER COUNTY WHERE
ADDITIONAL ACUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
HEATING MAY HELP TO GENERATE MORE DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER
CNTRL UPPER MI WITH STEEPENING 1000-800 MB LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE 500MB LOW ROTATING
ACROSS JAMES BAY AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN -15 AND -17C THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS /ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC/...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LES WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...ASSISTED
BY STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT. A MESO LOW IS PROGGED BY THE NAM/HI-RESWRF
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-E LAKE SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW POTENITAL TO BE ENHANCED MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT MAY SEE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANCE ROTAING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STATES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY. WHILE FCST MODELS ARE
CONSISTANT WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM FAR S ALBERTA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND DOWN THROUGH E CO AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH BECOMES A BIT MORE WASHED OUT/WEAKENS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS WI/IL/IN BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE NEXT
AGRESSIVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NW. THE
MAIN RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WAA...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ON AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C.
THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB GETS STUCK UP IN N CANADA...AND
THE NEXT DEEPENING LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND ACROSS AK ALLOWS
FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OF WARM AIR TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE N PLAINS.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING FROM THE N
CANADAIN LOW. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY. THE DEEP
SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK ACROSS ONTARIO...EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB W-SW WINDS OF 45-
55KTS FROM 18Z SUNDAY-JUST PAST 00Z MONDAY...WHILE 850MB TEMPS RISE
TO A CWA AVERAGE OF 4C.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO REBOUND ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY-TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 7C
NEXT TUESDAY...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A 3K-4K FT INVERSION WITH NW FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FAVOR HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. DRY AIR USPTREAM AND A LIMITED FETCH WILL KEEP
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF MVFR CIG.
ANY LES WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY AS THE HEAVIER LES
REMAINS EAST OF MARQUETTE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
AFTER HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1239 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY AND WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. THE BEST FORCING IS JUST STARTING TO CROSS LAKE MI WHICH WILL
REACH SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
RATES OF THE EVENT AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. MBS AND FNT WILL HAVE
THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE LONGEST DURATION AS THE FORCING SLIDES
ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE DETROIT TERMINAL. FURTHERMORE...AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS MOVING NORTH INTO JACKSON AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE DETROIT TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SN/PL MIX BEFORE BECOMING
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY BACK AROUND FROM
E/NE THROUGH NORTH OVERNIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY
AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUDS AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.
FOR DTW...THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS INCHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. STILL EXPECTING A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET MIX AS
WARM AIR HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH THROUGH JACKSON. THE WARM LAYER
WILL COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING PRESENTING A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BACKING FROM NE THIS
EVENING TO NW OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
AFTER 06Z.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL SNOW THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM IN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1128 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69
AS 12Z MODELS SO FAR SUPPORT A 8 TO 12 INCH SWATH OF SNOW IN THIS
REGION AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACKS INTO THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES ALREADY EXISTING FGEN FORCING. MORNING RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE THUMB. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-69...THE WARNING INTO THE M-59 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-59. WILL MAINTAIN STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITHIN THE ADVISORY FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WITH STILL A
CHANCE OF SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE HEAVIEST
DEFORMATION SNOW EXPANDS INTO AREA AFTER 4 PM AND PERSISTS INTO
THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 448 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL...THE TREND OF 01.00Z NCEP SUITE WAS ONE OF A MORE SNOWY
SOLUTION FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN
A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPECIFICALLY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED LEAD JET AXIS. THIS RESULTS IN THE NECESSARY
QUICKER TIMING AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZATION TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE SUBTLE FASTER TIMING...THERE IS
GREATER SUPPORT THE PRE-EXISTING BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME PHASED AT THE LARGER SCALE AND BECOME A SURROGATE
DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE DEEPENING LOW. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M 59
CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WARNED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN THUMB. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I 96 FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
THIS MORNING...INITIAL 850-700MB BAND PROTRUDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN HAS DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND IS BEING FORCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT ACTING UPON A VERY TIGHT 850MB
GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. OBSERVATIONS BOTH SURFACE VISIBILITY AND
REFLECTIVITY OF 20-25 DBZ SUGGESTS POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WITHIN
THE BAND AXIS. ACCUMULATING RATES ARE LIKELY IN THE FEW TENTHS PER
HOUR RANGE...PERHAPS A QUICK HALF INCH OR MORE PER HOUR WITH ANY
TEMPORARY STALLING OF THE BAND. THEREFORE...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MUTED HERE THROUGH 12Z WITH REGIONAL
MOSAIC LOOP SUPPORTING THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE BAND. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GREASY ROAD CONDITIONS AND COMPROMISE TRAFFIC
RATES. EXPECTING THE MEAT OF THE BAND TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHERN
DETROIT METRO/SUBURBS OVER THE NEXT COUPLES OF HOUR ...FOCUSING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE. THE 850-700MB FGEN AXIS IS FORECASTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...COASTING INTO THE TRI CITIES WHILE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
THUMB AND THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE BETTER FGEN PROGS GETS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ONE EXPECT INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...HOWEVER...BEST 290K MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADIENT AND
ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW SETS UP DIRECTLY FROM FLINT UP TO
SAGINAW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING AN INCREASING SNOW TEND DURING THE
15 TO 18Z WINDOW IN THE TRI CITIES. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY
REGION/NORTHERN THUMB PRIOR TO 18Z.
THIS AFTERNOON...A FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE WILL BRING A WELL
DEVELOPED/MATURE THETA E RIDGE INTO THE STATE TODAY...ENCAPSULATING
ALL OF THE CWA BETWEEN THE 18-22Z TIMEFRAME. WHAT IS REALLY EXPECTED
TO MAKE THIS EVENT GO IS THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING
THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. MODELS NOW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS INCREASED JET
ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FLANK PV ANOMALY TO TURN TO A
NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE TILT IN TIME TO BRING HIGHEST HEIGHT FALLS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE SUBTLE TIMING/WILL IT OR
WILL IT NOT PHASING...ASPECT OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. X SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING...REMAINING DEEP BUT BECOMING MUCH MORE UPRIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL ASCENT OVER SOUTHEASTER MICHIGAN IS FORECASTED TO
BE OF HIGH QUALITY WITH STRAIGHT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME HEAVY. DIFFICULT TO GAUGE WHAT THE OVERALL SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A HIGH DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND HI RESOLUTION RUNS. WITH THE DEGREE OF UVVS...AND
LIFT SOLIDLY THROUGH THE DGZ...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SNOWFALL RATES
TO REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WORST OF THE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 18-00Z.
GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS PERTAINING TO THIS
SYSTEM...I.E. THE EXCESSIVE FLIP FLOPPING...THERE REMAINS SOME
SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW THE PHASING WILL PLAY OUT.
DEFINITELY SAW ENOUGH IN THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE TO GO MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES...BUT THE INCREDIBLE HIGH
SENSITIVITY TO THE TIMING CAN NOT BE OVERSTATED.
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. ONE AREA TO WATCH FOR WITH A
CONTINUED IMPACT WITH HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING OF SNOW WILL BE IN
THE THUMB...PARTICULARLY AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE HURON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COLD TO BEGIN MARCH
WITH WINDCHILL READINGS RUNNING IN THE TEENS BOTH DAYS.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE FORCE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-
082-083.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SS
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1128 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69
AS 12Z MODELS SO FAR SUPPORT A 8 TO 12 INCH SWATH OF SNOW IN THIS
REGION AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACKS INTO THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES ALREADY EXISTING FGEN FORCING. MORNING RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE THUMB. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-69...THE WARNING INTO THE M-59 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-59. WILL MAINTAIN STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITHIN THE ADVISORY FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WITH STILL A
CHANCE OF SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE HEAVIEST
DEFORMATION SNOW EXPANDS INTO AREA AFTER 4 PM AND PERSISTS INTO
THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 609 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS
BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND THIS WILL
AFFECT MBS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGING THIS
SNOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS IT DOES...A SECOND ROUND OF
MORE MODERATE SNOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR DTW...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINAL
WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW BEFORE A SECOND ROUND MOVES BACK IN
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES AS
WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE NORTH...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL SNOW THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM IN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 448 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL...THE TREND OF 01.00Z NCEP SUITE WAS ONE OF A MORE SNOWY
SOLUTION FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN
A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPECIFICALLY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED LEAD JET AXIS. THIS RESULTS IN THE NECESSARY
QUICKER TIMING AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZATION TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE SUBTLE FASTER TIMING...THERE IS
GREATER SUPPORT THE PRE-EXISTING BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME PHASED AT THE LARGER SCALE AND BECOME A SURROGATE
DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE DEEPENING LOW. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M 59
CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WARNED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN THUMB. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I 96 FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
THIS MORNING...INITIAL 850-700MB BAND PROTRUDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN HAS DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND IS BEING FORCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT ACTING UPON A VERY TIGHT 850MB
GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. OBSERVATIONS BOTH SURFACE VISIBILITY AND
REFLECTIVITY OF 20-25 DBZ SUGGESTS POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WITHIN
THE BAND AXIS. ACCUMULATING RATES ARE LIKELY IN THE FEW TENTHS PER
HOUR RANGE...PERHAPS A QUICK HALF INCH OR MORE PER HOUR WITH ANY
TEMPORARY STALLING OF THE BAND. THEREFORE...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MUTED HERE THROUGH 12Z WITH REGIONAL
MOSAIC LOOP SUPPORTING THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE BAND. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GREASY ROAD CONDITIONS AND COMPROMISE TRAFFIC
RATES. EXPECTING THE MEAT OF THE BAND TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHERN
DETROIT METRO/SUBURBS OVER THE NEXT COUPLES OF HOUR ...FOCUSING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE. THE 850-700MB FGEN AXIS IS FORECASTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...COASTING INTO THE TRI CITIES WHILE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
THUMB AND THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE BETTER FGEN PROGS GETS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ONE EXPECT INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...HOWEVER...BEST 290K MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADIENT AND
ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW SETS UP DIRECTLY FROM FLINT UP TO
SAGINAW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING AN INCREASING SNOW TEND DURING THE
15 TO 18Z WINDOW IN THE TRI CITIES. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY
REGION/NORTHERN THUMB PRIOR TO 18Z.
THIS AFTERNOON...A FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE WILL BRING A WELL
DEVELOPED/MATURE THETA E RIDGE INTO THE STATE TODAY...ENCAPSULATING
ALL OF THE CWA BETWEEN THE 18-22Z TIMEFRAME. WHAT IS REALLY EXPECTED
TO MAKE THIS EVENT GO IS THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING
THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. MODELS NOW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS INCREASED JET
ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FLANK PV ANOMALY TO TURN TO A
NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE TILT IN TIME TO BRING HIGHEST HEIGHT FALLS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE SUBTLE TIMING/WILL IT OR
WILL IT NOT PHASING...ASPECT OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. X SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING...REMAINING DEEP BUT BECOMING MUCH MORE UPRIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL ASCENT OVER SOUTHEASTER MICHIGAN IS FORECASTED TO
BE OF HIGH QUALITY WITH STRAIGHT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME HEAVY. DIFFICULT TO GAUGE WHAT THE OVERALL SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A HIGH DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND HI RESOLUTION RUNS. WITH THE DEGREE OF UVVS...AND
LIFT SOLIDLY THROUGH THE DGZ...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SNOWFALL RATES
TO REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WORST OF THE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 18-00Z.
GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS PERTAINING TO THIS
SYSTEM...I.E. THE EXCESSIVE FLIP FLOPPING...THERE REMAINS SOME
SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW THE PHASING WILL PLAY OUT.
DEFINITELY SAW ENOUGH IN THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE TO GO MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES...BUT THE INCREDIBLE HIGH
SENSITIVITY TO THE TIMING CAN NOT BE OVERSTATED.
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. ONE AREA TO WATCH FOR WITH A
CONTINUED IMPACT WITH HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING OF SNOW WILL BE IN
THE THUMB...PARTICULARLY AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE HURON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COLD TO BEGIN MARCH
WITH WINDCHILL READINGS RUNNING IN THE TEENS BOTH DAYS.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE FORCE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-
082-083.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....SS
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SS
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1155 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POWERFUL SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100-150M AND EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW ALOFT BTWN UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND SOME UPR
RDGING OVER THE W PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTO SE ONTARIO.
SHARP COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES CRASHED THRU THE
CWA THIS MRNG...WITH NW WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 50 TO 55 MPH IN THE
STRONG CAA AND AHEAD OF PRES RISE CENTER FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
12Z H85 TEMPS IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT WERE AS LO AS -25 TO
-30C AT INL AND YPL. ALTHOUGH SN AMOUNTS WERE NOT EXCESSIVE...THE
BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS CAUSED NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN OPEN AREAS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS PASSING THRU THE CWA EARLY
THIS AFTN...SO WINDS/BLSN ARE DIMINISHING. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS...WITH PWATS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.05 INCH AT
YPL AND INL /25 PCT OF NORMAL/...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV HAVE CAUSED THE SN SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME SCATTERED AS WELL DESPITE THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR.
THE SN SHOWERS ARE MORE NMRS TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...WHERE LONGER
FETCH ACRS THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS IS MITIGATING THE LARGER
SCALE DRYING. BUT EVEN HERE THE SN SHOWERS ARE LIGHT. UNDER THE
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP...SKIES ARE MOCLR TO THE E OF ARCTIC HI
PRES CENTER BLDG TOWARD SRN MANITOBA.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS/BLSN FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER TO THE E AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR THRU THE NGT...LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN BASE TO 3-
4K FT AGL AND INFLUX OF DRIER UPSTREAM AIR WL LIMIT LES POPS/
INTENSITY EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF THAT CAN DVLP WITH A
WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT. BEST CHC FOR THE HIER LES POPS WL BE
OVER HOUGHTON/ONTONAGON AND COUNTIES AND IN AREAS NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
SLIDING TO THE S OF THE CWA WITH PASS OVHD...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO DROP
BLO ZERO AWAY FM THE LK SUP INFLUENCE. TENDED TO LOWER FCST MINS A
BIT IN THIS AREA CONSDIERING THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS.
TUE...PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL CONTINUE...HOLDING H85 TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -18C. BUT LINGERING LO INVRN BASE AS WELL AS
INCRSG ACYC H925 FLOW/INFLUX OF DRIER LLVL AIR THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT
LES POPS/INTENSITY. MAX TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...NOT FAR FM 20.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN NOAM WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SRLY
FLOW AND WARMING WILL INCREASE SUN INTO MON AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WEST AND A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES.
TUE NIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...WINDS VEERY MORE NRLY BRING HIGHER LES CHANCES TO THE WEST
INTO MARQUETTE COUNYT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER LATE WINTER DAYTIME
MIXING/DRYING ANY LES BANDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED...KEEPING
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR -17C...THE DIMINISHING WIND FIELDS AND DRY AIR OVER THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT LES GOING INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI UNTIL THE LES MOVES MAINLY OFFSHORE THU.
FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO THE SOUTH
OF UPPER MI.
SUN-MON...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS RIDING DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S MON AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
WITH AN INVERSION SET UP AT ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...MVFR CIGS WILL BE A POSSIBILTY WHENEVER A TERMINAL IS
AFFECTED BY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER NW WINDS...KCMX IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE NIGHT THRU THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES AT
TIMES...BUT WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON VIS. AT KIWD...SLIGHT VEERING OF
WINDS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
ANY LINGERING NW GALES THIS AFTN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DIMINSH BY EVENING WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING IN FROM THE W. AS THE WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH...SO WILL THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. THEN WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS THRU THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
920 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2016
Currently, the main upper level energy associated with the system
for later tonight and Thursday is over the northern High Plains,
near the interface between Wyoming and western South Dakota. There
is persistent WAA over our region now in advance of the system,
most focused in an axis from central IA to northwest MO, but it
is still taking some time to saturate the lower layers before pcpn
can initiate. A few stray sprinkles are not out of the question
for the remainder of this evening.
The main energy is expected to dig into western AR Thursday
morning, while driving a lead disturbance thru northern AR into
TN. These two main drivers now appear to take much of the best
WAA and broadscale lift south with them. While this does work
over our region, it will only do so briefly and then collapses to
the south. This has been picked up by the HRRR and RAP, which
significantly reduce the QPF over our region to near zero in many
areas. But one thing the HRRR and RAP are missing out on is that
there is currently strong WAA over the interface of NE/KS/MO and
this is producing rain, although the coverage on radar is worse
than what is actually hitting the ground. What all of this
appears to be saying is that the energy needed to saturate the
column sufficiently to achieve rain is going to be close to what
will actually happen and we are being given large divergences on
forecast rainfall amounts, depending on whether that threshold is
met or not. It all seemed much more achievable a model run ago. As
it stands now, the best chances for rainfall look to be northeast
MO, as the pcpn enters from the west with weakening lift, and
southeast MO which will gain benefit of the more southerly digging
main system.
Will only make minor changes to the forecast at this stage,
trimming slightly but maintaining the high PoPs in spots (only
0.01" needed), but backing off on QPF amounts.
Lots of low clouds still expected Thursday, and cool temps seem to
be the way to go with this setup and winds turning from east to
north.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2016
Hybrid clipper will begin to impact the CWA overnight tonight and
continue into the day on Thursday. System has pushed slightly to
the southwest compared to 24 hours ago. Main impacts for this
southwestward adjustment include increasing PoPs into the
categorical category as well as cooling high temperatures on
Thursday.
Expect strong warm/moist advection in conjunction with increasing
upper-level forcing for ascent to develop widespread light rain late
this evening near the MO/IA border. This are of rain should expand
southward due to a strengthening nocturnal LLJ but also advect to
the south and east as well. Precipitation for our CWA...even with a
slight adjustment of the system track to the south and west...still
appears to be all liquid rain due to temperatures above freezing at
lower levels.
As alluded to above...had to cool high temperatures for a majority
of the CWA on Thursday several degrees. Surface low on Thursday now
looks to track southwest of a KIRK>>KSTL>>KSLO line which will put
at least the northeastern 1/2 of the CWA in the cold sector of the
cyclone. A chilly...raw early March day looks on tap for most with
light rain...low clouds...and highs in the 40s. By afternoon...rain
should push off to the south and east of the CWA.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2016
Mostly quiet weather with moderating temperatures back above normal
by this upcoming weekend still looks in store.
Very unsettled weather should take hold early next week with
potentially multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Best bet
of this activity for now appears to be in the Tuesday/Tuesday night
timeframe.
Though still many days away...the pattern next week looks quite
ominous with meridional flow throughout the troposphere. This
would in turn supply much of the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley
with tons of Gulf moisture. If the baroclinic zone does not
progress much southeastward through the week...there will be more
than enough rain to cause problems across the region as round
after round of showers w/ possible embedded convection could
affect many of the same areas.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites thru this
evening, with deteriorating conditions expected thereafter as a
clipper system moves thru our region later tonight and Thursday.
There is increasing consensus amongst guidance on IFR conditions
for Thursday morning and did place them into the UIN TAF, but
stopped just short elsewhere and will likely make a decision by
the 03z update. Rain is expected to develop late this evening and
early overnight, filling in with rain at all TAF sites at some
point. Rain will come to an end near passage of a LOW pressure
system, as winds back from east to from the north-northwest. MVFR
CIGs are expected to remain in the wake of the system thru the end
of the valid period. Marginal, mostly just below threshold LLWS
conditions indicated for a time this evening and early overnight
for most sites but declined mention with time window also very
small. May updated this later this evening if winds come in
stronger aloft than previously indicated.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1203 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Main concern today is timing of thunderstorms this morning. Latest
radar is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from
central Missouri southwestward into northeast Oklahoma with an
additional cluster of storms over south central Missouri.
This development is actually picked up pretty well by the latest
runs of the experimental HRRR which shows moving over the southern
two thirds of the CWA today. The storms over south central Missouri
are being forced by strong low level moisture convergence associated
with the low level jet whereas the storms over central Missouri are
along the surface cold front. The rain will quickly end from west to
east later this morning and early this afternoon as the shortwave
trough currently digging over the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska moves
through Missouri and Illinois this afternoon.
We will still reach our highs this morning ahead of the cold front
and then see nearly steady or falling temperatures the rest of the
day.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Tonight and Wednesday still looks dry in the wake of this trough
before the clipper comes down into the area on northwest flow on
Thursday. Path of the surface low promises to bring warmer air
into the area which will keep the precipitation type as mainly
rain with this system. System will exit the area quickly on
Thursday night, so have gone mainly dry with colder temperatures.
Still looks like we will see a warm up over the weekend as upper
pattern gradually becomes more zonal and then southwesterly by early
next week. The ECMWF is showing enough instability over the area by
next Monday to include a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will
go from below normal to above normal over the weekend with the
change in pattern as the ECMWF shows 850mb temps going from 0 to
+10C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
MVFR flight conditions with ceilings at or below 2000 ft will
prevail this afternoon. There should be a gradual rise in the
ceilings before they clear late this afternoon into the evening.
Guidance is not handling the clouds very well today...so this is
more of a seat-of-the-pants forecast using upstream observations
over Iowa as the basis. Gusty northwest flow will prevail through
the afternoon...with wind subsiding later this evening/overnight.
After the clouds clear out from northwest to southeast, expect VFR
conditions to prevail for the rest of the TAF period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Expect MVFR ceilings between 1500-2000 ft to prevail this
afternoon. Should see a gradual rise in the clouds this afternoon
before the clouds move out to the southeast early this evening.
Guidance is not handling the height of these clouds very well, so
I`m using upstream observations as a guide. Northwest flow will
prevail through the night, but wind should turn back to the south
Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
445 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Main concern today is timing of thunderstorms this morning. Latest
radar is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from
central Missouri southwestward into northeast Oklahoma with an
additional cluster of storms over south central Missouri.
This development is actually picked up pretty well by the latest
runs of the experimental HRRR which shows moving over the southern
two thirds of the CWA today. The storms over south central Missouri
are being forced by strong low level moisture convergence associated
with the low level jet whereas the storms over central Missouri are
along the surface cold front. The rain will quickly end from west to
east later this morning and early this afternoon as the shortwave
trough currently digging over the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska moves
through Missouri and Illinois this afternoon.
We will still reach our highs this morning ahead of the cold front
and then see nearly steady or falling temperatures the rest of the
day.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Tonight and Wednesday still looks dry in the wake of this trough
before the clipper comes down into the area on northwest flow on
Thursday. Path of the surface low promises to bring warmer air
into the area which will keep the precipitation type as mainly
rain with this system. System will exit the area quickly on
Thursday night, so have gone mainly dry with colder temperatures.
Still looks like we will see a warm up over the weekend as upper
pattern gradually becomes more zonal and then southwesterly by early
next week. The ECMWF is showing enough instability over the area by
next Monday to include a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will
go from below normal to above normal over the weekend with the
change in pattern as the ECMWF shows 850mb temps going from 0 to
+10C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 420 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Cold front extending from a surface low near PPQ to just east of
COU will move southeastward through the St Louis metro area around
12Z Tuesday. There was a line of showers and thunderstorms along
this front which will move through the St Louis metro area early
this morning. There will be lighter and more scattered post
frontal showers that may continue to impact UIN and COU as well
early this morning. Post frontal MVFR cigs will advect through the
taf sites later this morning and early this afternoon. The cloud
ceiling should improve to VFR conditions by late this afternoon
or early this evening as surface high pressure builds into the
area behind the cold front. The surface wind will become
northwesterly and strong and gusty after fropa in UIN and COU by
12Z Tuesday and later this morning in the St Louis metro area. The
northwesterly wind will diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves southeastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers and storms will move through STL early
this morning around 12Z, with a chance of lighter post frontal
showers until noon. The cloud ceiling will lower into the MVFR
catagory later this morning, then rise back into the VFR catagory
late this afternoon. The sely surface wind will veer around to a
nwly direction by 15Z this morning and become strong and gusty
after fropa. The nwly wind will diminish tonight, becoming light
by early Wednesday morning.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Main concern today is timing of thunderstorms this morning. Latest
radar is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from
central Missouri southwestward into northeast Oklahoma with an
additional cluster of storms over south central Missouri.
This development is actually picked up pretty well by the latest
runs of the experimental HRRR which shows moving over the southern
two thirds of the CWA today. The storms over south central Missouri
are being forced by strong low level moisture convergence associated
with the low level jet whereas the storms over central Missouri are
along the surface cold front. The rain will quickly end from west to
east later this morning and early this afternoon as the shortwave
trough currently digging over the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska moves
through Missouri and Illinois this afternoon.
We will still reach our highs this morning ahead of the cold front
and then see nearly steady or falling temperatures the rest of the
day.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Tonight and Wednesday still looks dry in the wake of this trough
before the clipper comes down into the area on northwest flow on
Thursday. Path of the surface low promises to bring warmer air
into the area which will keep the precipitation type as mainly
rain with this system. System will exit the area quickly on
Thursday night, so have gone mainly dry with colder temperatures.
Still looks like we will see a warm up over the weekend as upper
pattern gradually becomes more zonal and then southwesterly by early
next week. The ECMWF is showing enough instability over the area by
next Monday to include a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will
go from below normal to above normal over the weekend with the
change in pattern as the ECMWF shows 850mb temps going from 0 to
+10C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 29 2016
Frontal boundary moving into forecast area, so will see some
showers develop ahead of it between 06z and 15z Tuesday. Cigs and
vsbys to remain VFR with activity, then lower to MVFR behind the
front. As for winds, south winds to veer to the northwest to north
and increase behind boundary. Winds to then diminish towards
sunset with cigs lifting to VFR. Cigs to begin scattering out
after 00z Wednesday. Kept mention of LLWS in metro area tafs,
mainly due to directional shear ahead of cold front, from 09z to
14z Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Frontal boundary moving into forecast area, so will see some
showers develop ahead of it by 10z Tuesday. Cigs and vsbys to
remain VFR with activity, then lower to MVFR behind the front.
Models indicating precipitation to linger over metro area as main
shortwave slides through, so keep rain in through 18z Tuesday. As
for winds, south winds to veer to the northwest and increase
behind boundary after 14z Tuesday. Winds to then diminish towards
sunset with cigs lifting to VFR. Cigs to begin scattering out
after 09z Wednesday. Kept mention of LLWS in metro area tafs,
mainly due to directional shear ahead of cold front, from 09z to
14z Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
532 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD. WARM FRONT LIFTED
NORTHEAST WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS. A FEW
OF THE SHOWERS ARE NOW REACHING THE GROUND TO INCLUDE AT THE
OFFICE.
THROUGH THIS EVENING A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THAT WILL
HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IN AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MILLS TO BARTLETT. STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO MAKE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS...OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDS AFTER 9 PM CT AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LINGERS
OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MIDNIGHT CT AND
TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH
TO MID 30S SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY FOR A
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST LOWER 40S FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS...THUS
EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WARM PACIFIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO COMBINE WITH THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO
PRODUCE A VERY MILD DAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 50S AND
MID 60S.
RIDGE WILL MIGRATE TO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH RISING DEW PTS. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR BETTER MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING
WARMER TEMPS WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER UNSURE ON THE TIMING AND HOW FAR WEST THE
MOISTURE PUSHES OVER THE CWA. IF THE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH
DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 20S...HIGHS COULD TOP/EXCEED 70. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MORE FIRE CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED REALLY
STRONG WINDS.
A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE IN THE WEST...WHICH THEN EJECTS ONTO
THE PLAINS IN A COUPLE PIECES NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SLOW MOVING
WAVE IS PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TRACK STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER MODELS IN AGREEMENT INCREASE MOISTURE WITH SFC
DEW PTS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH SOME LOW CAPE AND NEG LIFT INDEX VALUES...AND WILL KEEP
ISOLD THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. GENERALLY THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
THE TRACK TO THE EAST WITH THE 12Z RUN...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS TREND. OVERNIGHT COOLER AIR COULD CAUSE A MIX...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW ZONES.
THE SECOND PIECE AT THIS TIME TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
STILL SEEING MILD AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO GO WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AND CLEARS THE FORECAST
AREA BY 04Z. ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
A SECOND FRONT...AN ARCTIC FRONT...SHOULD DRAPE INTO NCNTL
NEBRASKA AROUND 08Z. THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS AN AREA OF IFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP...PERHAPS NEAR KONL LASTING THROUGH 08Z. THE NAM THEN
SHOWS THESE CIGS MIXING OUT TO MVFR/VFR IN THE SAME AREA OR EAST
OF KONL 18Z-21Z THURSDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THIS EVENING HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND FROM
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH. DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE AN
IMPACT ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO FORM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
MOSAIC RADAR DATA AS OF 0230Z REVEALED A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM NERN INTO S-CNTRL NEB WHICH APPEARS TO BE WELL
CORRELATED WITH A ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT AROUND 850
MB. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING SAMPLED A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
FROM ABOUT 900 MB THROUGH 650 MB...SO MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY EVAPORATING OR SUBLIMATING PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROGRESS EWD
TOWARD THE MO RIVER TONIGHT...ALONG THE AXIS OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH SOME MIXED PHASES (I.E. FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET)
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE PRIOR TO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS MEASURED A 140M HEIGHT FALL AT
GREAT FALLS WHILE A MEASURED 140KT 300MB JET WAS DIGGING UNDER THE
WAVE. A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW WITHIN
A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. BOTH THE RAP AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
INDICATE PCPN DEVELOPING AROUND 03Z IN OUR FAR NORTH...THEN
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY 09Z. VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
COULD DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
SHORT LIVED. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
NORTH WITH A TRACE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 30.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATE TUESDAY AND DROP TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50S BY
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON TIMING
OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES WITH THE GFS BEING A MUCH FASTER
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH WARMER WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUE A RA/SN MIX IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON IT. IN ANY
CASE...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THOUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF PCPN TO OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. A WARMING
TREND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING A DEEP TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANY LEAD SHORTWAVES
THAT MAY EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS SYSTEM
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL BE DAY
7...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE ADDED
A THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
LAST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KOMA BETWEEN 06-07Z.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 15Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEAD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID-WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...
ALTOCU CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 20-25KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE A BIT BY SUNSET....THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY
TIGHTEN THIS EVENING...SO AT LEAST SPORADIC GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY
BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE. RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE A COUPLE
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND CONVECTION...THOUGH THE BEST FORCING AND BRUNT
OF THE NARROW/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD HIT THE TRIAD AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WITHIN THE LINE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRONG FGEN AND A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE (HIGHEST IN
THE NAM)...WHILE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SHOULD BE COMMON GIVEN A 50-
60KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE LINE SHOULD LOSE A LITTLE STEAM AS IT MOVES
EAST AND THE INITIAL PUNCH OF DCVA LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH...REACHING
THE TRIANGLE BY AROUND 2AM AND EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 5AM
AND 7AM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A QUARTER INCH
OF QPF IN THE CORE OF THE SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SO TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL
PAST SUNRISE BUT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 38-53 RANGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
LEVEL OUT BY LATE MORNING AND RISE A LITTLE INT HE AFTERNOON. A
CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 46-55 RANGE. WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN THE MORNING...AROUND 20KT...AND WEAKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
HOWEVER...THICKNESSES DIPPING TO NEAR 1290M AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD TIMING CONSENSUS...AND THE
GFS HAS TRENDED ITS MILLER TYPE-B SURFACE EVOLUTION TOWARDS A
STRONGER...SOUTHERLY COASTAL LOW BECOMING DOMINANT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH RESEMBLES THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION AS THE SYSTEM IS
PULLING OFFSHORE BY 12Z.
THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE SETS UP MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LIMITED BY WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GMEX AND GULF STATES. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN AN INCREASING TREND FROM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WHERE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED...TO A LIKELY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE CONCURRENT WITH THE RAPID COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
LAGGING THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MAKE A CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH
ANY SNOW RATHER DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AS THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE
EITHER VERY LIGHT OR MORE LIKELY...ENDING BY THE TIME THE LOWEST
LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH POPS ENDING IN THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO
GRASSY OR OTHER RAISED SURFACES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 50...WITH MINS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
FAST TRANSITIONAL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A DRY CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT TO REINFORCE
THE COOL AIR OVER THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S.
AS WE MAINTAIN OUR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH ITS AXIS ALIGNED
UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...TO THE LOW AND MID 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS GUSTS TO
15-20KT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASE ALTOCU AOA 7K FT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MOVING UP THROUGH THE
FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT AND A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE INTO TO WESTERN NC AFTER 00Z...REACHING
KGSO/KINT BY 04-06Z...KRDU AROUND 07Z..AND KFAY/KRWI BY 09Z.AHEAD OF
THE LINE...A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI...WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES AND CREATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. WITHIN THE LINE ITSELF...A PERIOD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SHOULD BE COMMON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY BEHIND THE LINE AND CONTINUING TO GUST TO AROUND 20KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND BRINGS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT INTO BARNES COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST ND
THROUGH 6Z. THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 6Z AND MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD END.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. WILL FOLLOW BLEND OF SHORT RANGE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS FOR SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT.
SHORT WAVE INTO E MT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM SW ND INTO CENTRAL SD BY
MORNING. FEATURE/CONVERGENCE WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SW FROM REGIONAL TIME SECTIONS. BASED ON LOW TRACK AND WHAT
MOISTURE THERE IS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SW FA. FARTHER NORTH MOISTURE MORE LIMITED TO TRIMMED
POPS THERE. BASED ON SW-NW ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CLOUD
TRENDS THE NE WILL AGAIN BE THE COLDEST AREA UNDER LESS CLOUDS AND
WARMER TO THE SW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY. THERMAL ADVECTION FAIRLY NEUTRAL
SO CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT WAVE MOVING IN
TOWARDS MORNING. THINK ANY -SN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NW-N.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
AS WAVE DROPS SE ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
SOUTHWARD MAINLY FROM THE VALLEY EAST DURING THE DAY. WITH BETTER
FORCING AND MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COULD SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST PCPN GETS ORGANIZED EARLY
FRIDAY COULD SEE A MORNING MIX TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY -RA HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL.
-SN SHOULD END ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND LITTLE
COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.
IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN SATURDAY AND WITH INCREASED
MIXING THROUGH THE DAY OUR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS.
LONG WAVE PATTERN SPLITS THIS PERIOD. A REX LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN THE ECMWF
BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
ABOUT SUN. NORTHERN PLAINS GETS INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MON AND
TUE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUN. HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED
ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON MON...INCREASED ZERO TO FOUR DEGREES ON TUE
AND DECREASED ZERO TO TWO DEGREES FOR WED FROM THE MORNING
PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
MAINLY VFR TO BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS COULD CLEAR SOME IN THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN JUST AFTER THE VALID PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BUT REMAIN UNDER 15KT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1252 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
REPORTS OF PEA HAIL IN SOME OF THE CORES...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING DUE TO INSUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY. HRRR GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL BETWEEN THIS PREFRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00Z TEMPERATURE GRID THIS EVENING IS VERY TELLING...WITH A 22
DEGREE GRADIENT FROM PORTSMOUTH OHIO TO CELINA OHIO. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP
VERY QUICKLY. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION...OR
PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...CHANCES
FOR SNOW HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CHANGEOVER AS THE RIBBON OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE DEPARTS
THE AREA...BUT THIS IS NOW LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.
AN AREA OF 850MB-700MB DEFORMATION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS HAS ALSO
BEEN FORECAST TO PRODUCE SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS ALSO SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTH WITH THE MOST RECENT
MODEL RUNS. THUS...THE FORECAST FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 COULD
RECEIVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS (TRACE TO A TENTH OR TWO)...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME HIGHER VALUES (UP TO A HALF INCH) IN THE
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE...THESE NUMBERS COULD HAVE TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD EVEN
FURTHER.
AS A FINAL NOTE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WIND
GUSTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION (NORTHWEST FLOW) WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONG...UP TO AROUND 30-35 MPH.
A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW COMBINATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
MODEL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO BEEN FURTHER NORTH (AND THUS
WARMER)...LEADING THINGS TOWARD THE RAINIER SIDE OF THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX. WITH GOOD OVERALL TIMING AGREEMENT...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO
60 PERCENT. THE RAIN/SNOW DETAILS (AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS) WILL STILL NEED SOME WORK AS THE EVENT GETS A
LITTLE CLOSER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE
CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM...AS A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL NEED TO BE MODIFIED BY THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. NONETHELESS...UNLESS A MAJOR SHIFT IN
THE FORECAST TRACK OCCURS...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SOME
EARLY LOW LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR
SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
OUR NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW WITH ANY
PCPN INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SHOULD TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR US TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY PCPN
OVER TO RAIN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY IFR
VISIBILITIES. APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THESE LOWER CEILINGS MAY NOT BE SOLID AT LEAST TO START. MAY BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WEST AND GUST UP TO 35 KT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT THAT POINT. LATER IN THE NIGHT CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOME BUT
REMAIN MVFR WHILE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. GUSTS SHOULD END
BEFORE 12Z WHILE CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TO THE PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO MAINE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THRU THE NORTHERN CO`S WILL STALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. THE TEMP PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUCH
THAT THE PRECIP COULD COME AS EITHER SNOW...RAIN OR FZRA OR A MIX
OF THEM. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
STAYING DRY SO DON`T SEE ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THERE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT BUT WINDOW IS
SHRINKING RAPIDLY. THE OTHER CHANCE IS IN THE NW FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
ON. SINCE THE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE FZRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE...SEE NO REASON
TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL PUSH NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRANSITION ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHORE AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...AS
COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARM AIR ALOFT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN...EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND
SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST.
FLOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AS DRIER AIR DESCENDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP AS SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL IS IDEAL AT THIS TIME WITH FAIRLY GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30S FOR HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO DROP OFF. HOWEVER...IF MORE
CLEARING TAKES PLACE THAN ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WIND UP MUCH COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MOST SIMILAR. THE
MODELS BRING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BELIEVE GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH. STILL...SEEMS REASONABLE
BARRING TRACK CHANGES THAT SOME AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INCREASING TO LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST BUT FOR NOW JUST WENT DRY AS
ENERGY WILL BE TRANSLATING TO THE COAST. SATURDAY ANOTHER LOW DROPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND PRECIP COULD BEGIN OR
MIX WITH RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE SNOW. DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH NORTH TO NE FLOW
NOW BEING REPORTED. EVEN WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THINK KERI MAY BRIEFLY
DIP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT BY DAYBREAK DOWNSLOPING EAST FLOW WILL
CAUSE THE CIGS TO IMPROVE AGAIN. EXPECTING VFR CIGS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE. PRECIP WILL START
ALONG I-75 AROUND 18Z AND BE MOSTLY RAIN. SOME SORT OF MIX COULD
OCCUR AT KTOL BUT TEMPS ALOFT GET PRETTY WARM. IT WILL TAKE TILL
EARLY EVENING FOR THE PRECIP TO REACH NW PA. BY THAT TIME THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEAR KCLE WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW TRACK. EXPECT ALL BUT THE FAR EAST END OF THE
AREA TO BE ALL SNOW BY 06Z WED. OF COURSE BY THAT TIME THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL BE A MESS TUESDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SE FLOW DURING THE DAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW TRACK. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOT ARE POSSIBLE BY 00Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER
WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE LAKE WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND
DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TUESDAY
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ENE TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
848 PM PST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE TRAILING STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING STRONG WIND ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL MOUNTAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED INLAND...INCLUDING THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE CASCADES. THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRIDAY AND ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE PORTLAND OREGON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR HAS BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE AFTER A SHORT OUTAGE EARLIER THIS
EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE AROUND 135W WITH A COUPLE OF
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER-RUNNING PRECIP HAS
ALREADY SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE S WA WATERS TO
CENTRAL OREGON AT 12Z. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BELIEVE THIS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR OREGON CASCADES BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS...BUT IT
COULD GET CLOSE IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT. AS OF
04Z SNOW LEVELS IN THE S WA CASCADES WERE AROUND 4000 TO 4500
FEET...BUT CLOSER TO 5500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES.
THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE SIMILAR WIND CHARACTERISTICS AS THE
SUNDAY FRONT. HOWEVER...MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT AND TODAY CONTINUE TO
LOOK STRONGER...WITH A DEEPER SURFACE LOW HEADING TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND. 00Z NAM SHOWING 55-65 KT 925 MB WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
COAST 18Z TUE AND 55-65 KT 850 MB WIND SPEEDS AS FAR INLAND AS THE
OREGON COAST RANGE AND SW WA WILLAPA HILLS. STRONGEST WIND FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WA LOWLANDS
LOOKS TO BE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LATEST NAM STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM TUE EVENING...
PRIMARILY IMPACTING SW WA AND OREGON AREAS N OF A KONP TO KS12 LINE.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS TUE NIGHT...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS
GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND
NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SOME COASTAL
WIND...FOLLOWED BY SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CASCADES BY EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUING SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK EARLY FRIDAY...THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADY...PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT...AND PERHAPS MOST POTENT...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT JUST HOW CLOSE IT TRACKS TO
THE PACIFIC NW REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SOME SUGGESTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SPLIT...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WHILE PRECISE DETAILS...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND IMPACTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
MARKED BY ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION. FAR TOO SOON TO DISCERN ANY
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS...BUT WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS OPPOSED TO A
STATIONARY BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SETUP...CONCERNS MAY REMAIN MINIMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
THE CASCADE PASSES FOR MOST TO ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...WARM FRONT IS SPREADING STEADY -RA ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT SKIES REMAIN VFR AT MOST TERMINALS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY SNEAK IN FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE AIR
MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FROM THE RAIN.
PER THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS WARM FRONTAL
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME AROUND 12Z. AIR
MASS THEN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING POTENT COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THIS FRONT...WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 18Z...THEN 30-40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SHARP REDUCTIONS IN CIG/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE FRONT...BOTH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. A STRAY -TSRA OR
TWO ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY TO
REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT WITH VFR VSBYS. INCREASING CHANCE OF MVFR
FROM 08Z-12Z DUE TO CONTINUED -RA. BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN LIKELY TUE
MORNING...THEN COLD FRONT WILL BRING S WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT AND
SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AFTER 18Z TUE.WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING EVEN STRONGER
WINDS TUE. EXPECT GALES TO DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KT LATER TUE MORNING AND
TUE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME STORM GUSTS TO 50 KT IF COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW FOR THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SO WILL STICK WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR
NOW. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP GALES GOING TROUGH TUE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AND LATE THU...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE GALES. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SEAS HAVE SETTLED BACK DOWN TO THE EXPECTED 10-13 FT THIS EVENING
AFTER BRIEFLY SPIKING TO 16-17 FT AT BUOYS 46029/46248 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE PROLIFIC AND WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. 00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...REACHING CAPE FLATTERY TUE EVENING. IF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
AS STRONG AS THE 00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST...IT COULD CREATE A DECENT
DYNAMIC FETCH WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BE GREATER THAN
MODELED...POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 20 FEET AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. IN CASE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
CAUSE SEAS TO EXCEED 20 FEET...THE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS ABOVE 20 FT
LATE IN THE WEEK. WEAGLE/BOWEN/PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR WILLAPA
HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
403 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
TO THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BECOME DIMMED BY A VEIL OF INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SUNSHINE...AND WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS HAS HELPED TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN...WITH LOWER
60S NOTED AT 18Z THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN PENN.
LOW PRESSURE /1000 MB - OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT
TIMES ON THE RIDGES OF THE LAURELS EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PLUMMETING TEMPS.
STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12 MB WILL FOLLOW THE
SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PENN WITH A SWD TRAILING BAND OF 8-10 MB
RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING BRANCH OF A 120 KT
UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES PROMPTED US TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY - BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAURELS
FOR THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF GUSTY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
LATER ONE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN
MTNS OF THE STATE.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE.
SOME COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO
KEEP THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT
SURGING NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURSDAY AND A
FAST- MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEAK HIGH. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW FILLING
IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC
CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARMER TREND SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...TO MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...BUT
WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY- EXPECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY IF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE NEW/OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT AND ADJUST
LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LAST
NIGHT...IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT.
EARLY AFTERNOON VSBL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS...WITH A
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT THE SOUTH WIND TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20KT RANGE.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS -
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03-05Z WEST...AND 06-08Z ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WED...WINDY. AM RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD/KJST.
THU...PM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
SAT...LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
TO THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BECOME DIMMED BY A VEIL OF INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SUNSHINE...AND WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS HAS HELPED TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN...WITH LOWER
60S NOTED AT 18Z THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN PENN.
LOW PRESSURE /1000 MB - OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT
TIMES ON THE RIDGES OF THE LAURELS EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PLUMMETING TEMPS.
STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12 MB WILL FOLLOW THE
SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PENN WITH A SWD TRAILING BAND OF 8-10 MB
RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING BRANCH OF A 120 KT
UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES PROMPTED US TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY - BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAURELS
FOR THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF GUSTY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
LATER ONE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN
MTNS OF THE STATE.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE.
SOME COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO
KEEP THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT
SURGING NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1022MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY WED NIGHT AND THURS. THE
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURS AND A FAST-MOVING
WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER THE MIDWEST
AND MOVE INTO THE OH VLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE WEAK HIGH.
BUT THE LOW SEEMS TO FILL IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING
OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF
NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE TEMPS DO RISE ABV FZG ON
FRIDAY...BUT WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY-EXPECTED HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE
NEW/OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR THAT AND ADJUST LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE ON
DY7.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LAST
NIGHT...IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT.
EARLY AFTERNOON VSBL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS...WITH A
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT THE SOUTH WIND TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20KT RANGE.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS -
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03-05Z WEST...AND 06-08Z ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WED...WINDY. AM RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD/KJST.
THU...PM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
SAT...LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
TO THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BECOME DIMMED BY A VEIL OF INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SUNSHINE...AND WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS HAS HELPED TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN...WITH LOWER
60S NOTED AT 18Z THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN PENN.
LOW PRESSURE /1000 MB - OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT
TIMES ON THE RIDGES OF THE LAURELS EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PLUMMETING TEMPS.
STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12 MB WILL FOLLOW THE
SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PENN WITH A SWD TRAILING BAND OF 8-10 MB
RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING BRANCH OF A 120 KT
UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES PROMPTED US TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY - BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAURELS
FOR THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF GUSTY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
LATER ONE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN
MTNS OF THE STATE.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE.
SOME COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO
KEEP THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT
SURGING NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS
POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE 20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST
NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER
EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH
WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1022MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY WED NIGHT AND THURS. THE
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURS AND A FAST-MOVING
WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER THE MIDWEST
AND MOVE INTO THE OH VLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE WEAK HIGH.
BUT THE LOW SEEMS TO FILL IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING
OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF
NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE TEMPS DO RISE ABV FZG ON
FRIDAY...BUT WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY-EXPECTED HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE
NEW/OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR THAT AND ADJUST LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE ON
DY7.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LAST
NIGHT...IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT.
EARLY AFTERNOON VSBL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS...WITH A
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT THE SOUTH WIND TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20KT RANGE.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS -
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03-05Z WEST...AND 06-08Z ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WED...WINDY. AM RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD/KJST.
THU...PM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
SAT...LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
939 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO NORTH
ALABAMA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A FEW
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY...OR COOL SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DRIER AIRMASS WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
AS OF 3 AM CST...LATEST H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH TO
KANSAS...WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS AND MIGRATES SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TO BE CENTERED OVER OHIO BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...WITH 01/10Z SFC OBS INDICATING
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S ALREADY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BEFORE 01/15Z TO THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE RIVER BY LATE MORNING. WHILE DECENT
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...ALONG WITH A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT TO THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTING IN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. GUIDANCE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
POTENTIAL BEST CAPE VALUES REALIZED BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG ARE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS NEAREST THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LAPSE RATE VALUES
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 C/KM. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BETTER ORGANIZE AS IT COMES INTO THIS
REGION OF BETTER INSTABILITY. THUS THESE WILL BE THE LOCATIONS
MOST PRONE TO ANY STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETIRE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 50S BEFORE WARMING ON THURSDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH SFC WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY AS THE SFC HIGH RELOCATES EAST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. SPRING LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MARCH SHOWERS.
ZDM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
SHRA / ISOLATED TSRA WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN AR... A LITTLE AHEAD
OF EARLIER FORECASTS AND THE 06Z NAM. 10Z HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING. LINGERING SHRA WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
LEADING SHRA/TSRA LINE THROUGH MIDDAY. REGENERATION OF TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUP AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR 12Z TAFS... HAVE BROUGHT FORWARD THE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AND
TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
UPSTREAM.
CLEAR WITH DECREASING NW WINDS FOR THIS EVENING/S ARRIVAL PUSH AT
MEM. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
544 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3 AM CST...LATEST H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH TO KANSAS...WITH
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH... TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS AND MIGRATES SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TO BE CENTERED OVER OHIO BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...WITH 01/10Z SFC OBS INDICATING
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S ALREADY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BEFORE 01/15Z TO THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE RIVER BY LATE MORNING. WHILE DECENT
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...ALONG WITH A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT TO THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTING IN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. GUIDANCE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
POTENTIAL BEST CAPE VALUES REALIZED BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG ARE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS NEAREST THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LAPSE RATE VALUES
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 C/KM. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BETTER ORGANIZE AS IT COMES INTO THIS
REGION OF BETTER INSTABILITY. THUS THESE WILL BE THE LOCATIONS
MOST PRONE TO ANY STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETIRE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 50S BEFORE WARMING ON THURSDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH SFC WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY AS THE SFC HIGH RELOCATES EAST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. SPRING LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MARCH SHOWERS.
ZDM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
SHRA / ISOLATED TSRA WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN AR... A LITTLE AHEAD
OF EARLIER FORECASTS AND THE 06Z NAM. 10Z HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING. LINGERING SHRA WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
LEADING SHRA/TSRA LINE THROUGH MIDDAY. REGENERATION OF TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUP AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR 12Z TAFS... HAVE BROUGHT FORWARD THE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AND
TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
UPSTREAM.
CLEAR WITH DECREASING NW WINDS FOR THIS EVENING/S ARRIVAL PUSH AT
MEM. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT ALREADY CLEARED KDRT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PUSHES TO THE
EAST. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE FROM NW TO SE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH VFR SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PATCHY BR WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH NO
IMPACT AT THE TAF SITES. S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS WILL SHIFT TO N TO NW AT 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KTS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO
7 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN TURN TO THE E AND SE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT USHERS IN
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT STILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP NWP ANALYSIS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING THAT IS HELPING DRIVE A
STORM COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING PLACE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LUBBOCK TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RAPIDLY CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LIFTING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND IN COMBINATION WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BETWEEN 3-6 KFT - UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO COME BY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH...ONLY THE CONVERGENCE
OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO HELP GENERATE A
SHALLOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COASTAL COUNTIES
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND
HAVE PLACED ONLY A SMALL 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEY WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES PER
VERTICAL MIXING PROFILES OF NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 7PM TONIGHT.
WITH CALMING WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE - LOWS
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S
AREAWIDE. A NICE SUNNY WARM-UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE LOW AND UPPER
70S.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
TAKING SHAPE. BEFORE THAT TIME HOWEVER - PLEASANT, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY LATE WEEK...A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HOWEVER, BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO VERTICALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USER IN MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90F DEGREES
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. MORNING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MIX OUT TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EACH AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. LONG RANGE MODEL
AGREEMENT AS SHORED UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
PLACING MORE WEIGHT BEHIND THE SLOWER AND DEEPER AMPLIFIED GFS
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWED
AND DIVERTED OFF FROM ITS PREVIOUS OUTPUT TOWARDS THE GFS/GEFS. A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE TEXAS REGION AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG STORM
RISKS. HAVE KEPT THE HWO CLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE AS IT REMAINS TO
FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE BUT NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEAR A CLOSE WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 48 74 61 82 51 / 0 0 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 74 58 82 47 / 0 0 - 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 47 74 59 83 49 / 0 0 - - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 43 72 58 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 79 56 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 74 60 79 46 / 0 0 - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 75 56 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 46 74 59 82 48 / 0 0 - - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 47 73 60 80 49 / 0 0 - 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 74 60 83 51 / 0 0 0 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 76 59 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
435 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE FROM NW TO SE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH VFR SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PATCHY BR WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH NO
IMPACT AT THE TAF SITES. S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS WILL SHIFT TO N TO NW AT 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KTS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO
7 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN TURN TO THE E AND SE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT USHERS IN
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT STILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP NWP ANALYSIS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING THAT IS HELPING DRIVE A
STORM COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING PLACE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LUBBOCK TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RAPIDLY CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LIFTING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND IN COMBINATION WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BETWEEN 3-6 KFT - UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO COME BY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH...ONLY THE CONVERGENCE
OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO HELP GENERATE A
SHALLOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COASTAL COUNTIES
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND
HAVE PLACED ONLY A SMALL 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEY WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES PER
VERTICAL MIXING PROFILES OF NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 7PM TONIGHT.
WITH CALMING WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE - LOWS
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S
AREAWIDE. A NICE SUNNY WARM-UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE LOW AND UPPER
70S.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
TAKING SHAPE. BEFORE THAT TIME HOWEVER - PLEASANT, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY LATE WEEK...A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HOWEVER, BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO VERTICALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USER IN MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90F DEGREES
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. MORNING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MIX OUT TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EACH AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. LONG RANGE MODEL
AGREEMENT AS SHORED UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
PLACING MORE WEIGHT BEHIND THE SLOWER AND DEEPER AMPLIFIED GFS
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWED
AND DIVERTED OFF FROM ITS PREVIOUS OUTPUT TOWARDS THE GFS/GEFS. A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE TEXAS REGION AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG STORM
RISKS. HAVE KEPT THE HWO CLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE AS IT REMAINS TO
FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE BUT NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEAR A CLOSE WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 48 74 61 82 / 10 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 44 74 58 82 / 10 0 0 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 47 74 59 83 / 10 0 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 43 72 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 49 79 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 44 74 60 79 / - 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 46 75 56 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 46 74 59 82 / 10 0 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 47 73 60 80 / 10 0 0 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 49 74 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 50 76 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT USHERS IN
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT STILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP NWP ANALYSIS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING THAT IS HELPING DRIVE A
STORM COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING PLACE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LUBBOCK TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RAPIDLY CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LIFTING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND IN COMBINATION WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BETWEEN 3-6 KFT - UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO COME BY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH...ONLY THE CONVERGENCE
OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO HELP GENERATE A
SHALLOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COASTAL COUNTIES
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND
HAVE PLACED ONLY A SMALL 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEY WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES PER
VERTICAL MIXING PROFILES OF NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 7PM TONIGHT.
WITH CALMING WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE - LOWS
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S
AREAWIDE. A NICE SUNNY WARM-UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE LOW AND UPPER
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
TAKING SHAPE. BEFORE THAT TIME HOWEVER - PLEASANT, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY LATE WEEK...A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HOWEVER, BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO VERTICALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USER IN MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90F DEGREES
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. MORNING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MIX OUT TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EACH AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. LONG RANGE MODEL
AGREEMENT AS SHORED UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
PLACING MORE WEIGHT BEHIND THE SLOWER AND DEEPER AMPLIFIED GFS
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWED
AND DIVERTED OFF FROM ITS PREVIOUS OUTPUT TOWARDS THE GFS/GEFS. A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE TEXAS REGION AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG STORM
RISKS. HAVE KEPT THE HWO CLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE AS IT REMAINS TO
FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE BUT NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEAR A CLOSE WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 48 74 61 82 / 10 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 44 74 58 82 / 10 0 0 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 47 74 59 83 / 10 0 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 43 72 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 49 79 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 44 74 60 79 / - 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 46 75 56 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 46 74 59 82 / 10 0 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 47 73 60 80 / 10 0 0 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 49 74 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 50 76 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
247 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER
WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES GET VERY WARM. 4 KM MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME WEAK ECHOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NSSL 4 KM SHOWING
ACTIVITY MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS (ONLY GOING OUT TO 3 AM AS
OF THIS WRITING). TTU 4 KM NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING (WHICH COULD
OCCUR AS WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA). OVERALL FEELING
HOWEVER IS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE MID-LEVEL THETA-E MAX IS LOCATED
AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG CAP (HIGH CIN) AND THE FACT THAT 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY
COULD PRECLUDE ANY STRONG CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHOULD CAP BREAK
WITH SEA-BREEZE WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR MORE. IN SHORT...WILL GO WITH A 20
POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
ELSEWHERE...DID MENTION SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME AREAS
TOPPING 90 DEGREES.
SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT A STRONG COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SEEN AS UPPER TROUGH
WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN IS FORECAST
TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND NORTHERLY FETCH IS WEAK. STILL...
WILL SEE 50S MOST INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. GOING A BIT WARMER
WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I-
37 WILL ONLY SEE 70S...WITH NEAR 80 TO LOWER 80S WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. RETURN FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAINLY NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPROACHING SCA BUT OVERALL SCEC. ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WIND PROFILE
ACROSS S TX THURSDAY BECOMES WSW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT THAT IS PROG TO STALL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.
H85 TEMPS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE WARMER WSW FLOW AND WITH
GOOD DIURNAL MIXING...AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES /WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND LOW 80S NEAR VICTORIA/. SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DO NOTHING MORE
THAN DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CU. FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES ACROSS
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. QUASIZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE MERIDIONAL EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AS A POWERFUL AND DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
BECOME WINDY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PREVENTING MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH INTO THE 60S.
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF
CONVECTION RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF
MOISTURE DEPTH CAN INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 59 77 61 87 / 20 20 10 0 0
VICTORIA 83 51 75 59 82 / 10 10 0 0 10
LAREDO 90 61 82 61 94 / 10 10 10 0 0
ALICE 91 56 81 60 91 / 20 20 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 58 76 63 80 / 20 20 10 0 0
COTULLA 87 54 80 58 91 / 10 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 55 79 62 90 / 20 20 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 82 62 73 63 81 / 20 20 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1047 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35 AT THIS
TIME AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL LOOKING
FOR ALL SITES TO BECOME MVFR THEN FALL TO IFR 07Z-09Z. KDRT WILL
BE A COUPLE HOURS LATER THAN I-35 TERMINALS. STILL THINK WINDS
DECREASE JUST ENOUGH TO GET FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF FOG ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z WHEN VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 1-3 MILES. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH THE FOG. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS. WILL SEE CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY 16Z-18Z. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF I-35 BY 20Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. AFTER 02/02Z NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE 03Z-05Z
PERIOD. BY 06Z EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. KDRT WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS LATER BUT STILL LOOKING
FOR IFR CONDITIONS BY 11Z. FOG IS GOING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06Z. VSBYS MAY NOT FALL AS LOW BUT STILL LOOKING FOR 1-3 MILES.
COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. CIGS AND VSBYS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
AND SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 18Z-19Z. WINDS WILL BE S/SE NEAR 10
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KDRT
AROUND 16Z AND THE I-35 SITES 19Z-21Z. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST
NORTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. BEHIND THIS LOW...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15 MPH. THINK THE BULK OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
AND THIS IS WHERE THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST POTENTIAL. CANT
RULE OUT ANY DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE FOG.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF THUNDER CHANCES
WITH SPC PULLING OUT THE MENTION OF MARGINAL RISK IN OUR CWA.
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
AND WILL JUST FORECAST A 20 POP FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM SHOULD STAY MOSTLY QUIET. SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK
FRONT DROPS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THIS WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY
WHICH COULD PROMOTE WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A
STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME OF THE EFFECTS FROM THAT SYSTEM BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CYCLE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 78 47 73 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 78 43 73 56 / 10 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 61 80 46 73 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 75 43 71 57 / 10 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 84 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 43 72 58 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 82 46 74 55 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 45 72 57 / 10 10 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 78 46 72 58 / 10 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 80 48 73 58 / 10 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 81 49 74 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1207 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST TUESDAY...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXTENSION OF LEFTOVER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEEING THE FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO TURN MORE SW
AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY ACT TO BRING BACK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON PER LOW CLOUDS OFF TO THE SW ON
LATEST VISIBLE PICS. SINCE TRENDS APPEAR A BIT SLOWER INTO THE DRY
AIR HAVE SLOWED DOWN CLOUDS A LITTLE WITH THE THICKER CANOPY NOT
ARRIVING FROM THE SW UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES
APPEAR IFFY AS WELL BUT GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING A FEW WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR WEST LATE...KEEPING SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THERE. OTRW STILL ON TRACK WITH MORE SUN
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALL AREAS...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO
NE. THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 70 PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY 60S
ELSEWHERE SO EDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST SPOTS.
LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WONT
REALLY MIX DOWN UNTIL THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACH THE WEST
THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH FROM BLF DOWN TO
TNB BEFORE SPEEDS RAMP UP WITH THE SHOWERS AND THEN WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. SINCE SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE FASTER WHEN THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY MOUNTAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
BAND...WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS WEST THIS EVENING. ALSO INCLUDING A
BIT MORE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE LEADING LINE NATURE OF
THE SHALLOW CONVECTION OFF THE HRRR. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK
QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL SO WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE TO
SEE IF SOME LOCATIONS ESPCLY THE NC MOUNTAINS NEED TO GO INTO
WARNING STATUS WITH PERHAPS SOME EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATER.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EST TUESDAY...
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE POSTED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO INCLUDE
ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AN ABOVE NORMAL STANCE...
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY IS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A 996MB
SURFACE LOW PROGGED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT... SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATING A SWATH OF MOISTURE
PRODUCING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS VARY A BIT ON JUST HOW FAST TO EDGE THE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST PER TIMING OF THE PASSING SURFACE LOW...BUT AGREE
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE EARLIER THE TIMING THE GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE
LATER THE TIMING THE LESS THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AT THE VERY LEAST LOOKING AT LOW
CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO STORMS WHICH INITIALLY MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS. EVEN WHEN
THE STORMS FADE IN INTENSITY...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ITS
OWN SURGE OF WIND...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN 6-12 HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PEAK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER
ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SUGGESTING ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL HAVE CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS...ANY ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL BEHIND THE FRONT...
READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
FOLLOWING A WINDY AND GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND REDUCING THE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MOUNTAINS CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL HAVE THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER THE MID WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THROWING A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE.
WITH MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES NORTH OF I64 THURSDAY MORNING.
00Z GFS/ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS NORTHERN
STREAM LOW COMING ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS A NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...DEVELOPING THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SINCE THE NAM WAS A STRONG OUTLIER...IT WAS NOT
USED IN THIS FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS/ECM HAS THE REGION SATURATED AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILL COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING
WILL START FALLING INTO SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING GOING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WE HAVE
LOWERED THURSDAY HIGHS UNDER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 30S WEST AND IN THE
40S EAST. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY EVEN IF MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS ALL SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A WARM GROUND AND MODEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SNOW SHOULD START ACCUMULATING AFTER 400 PM AS WE START
TO LOSE HEATING AND THE SECONDARY LOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO PULL MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...REDUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A
CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING...WILL KEEP
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. IF SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TOTALS COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES WEST...4
INCHES ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST MONDAY...
SFC LOW MOVES UP AND OFF THE COAST WITH SOME WEAK WRAP-AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS IN MTNS FRIDAY...BUT THIS ENDS QUICKLY AS YET
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SYSTEM IS POISED TO TRACK DOWN FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVE ACROSS APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER AND TRACKING SLIGHT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM...AND WOULD BRING ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO WRN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
IT MOVES INTO IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WHAT THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SO ANY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE CONFINED TO HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
ON WRN SLOPES. RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH GFS STILL SUGGEST ONE LAST WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NW FLOW MAY
SLOW DOWN THIS BUILDING RIDGE UNTIL TUES VS. MONDAY. OVERALL
THOUGH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS WELL...EDGING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SW. STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE WEST WILL THEN DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE
BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A QUICK INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR-IFR LIKELY WITHIN DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE WEST. AS THE FRONT CROSSES...APPEARS A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP
EAST...CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY TONIGHT... THEN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS EVEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 8 TO 12
HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN
AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES ESPCLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KLWB-KBLF-KTNB CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO SNEAK
OUT TO KBCB EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK MAY EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL STORM WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF SUB- VFR IN RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JH/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
953 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST TUESDAY...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXTENSION OF LEFTOVER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEEING THE FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO TURN MORE SW
AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY ACT TO BRING BACK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON PER LOW CLOUDS OFF TO THE SW ON
LATEST VISIBLE PICS. SINCE TRENDS APPEAR A BIT SLOWER INTO THE DRY
AIR HAVE SLOWED DOWN CLOUDS A LITTLE WITH THE THICKER CANOPY NOT
ARRIVING FROM THE SW UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES
APPEAR IFFY AS WELL BUT GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING A FEW WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR WEST LATE...KEEPING SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THERE. OTRW STILL ON TRACK WITH MORE SUN
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALL AREAS...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO
NE. THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 70 PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY 60S
ELSEWHERE SO EDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST SPOTS.
LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WONT
REALLY MIX DOWN UNTIL THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACH THE WEST
THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH FROM BLF DOWN TO
TNB BEFORE SPEEDS RAMP UP WITH THE SHOWERS AND THEN WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. SINCE SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE FASTER WHEN THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY MOUNTAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
BAND...WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS WEST THIS EVENING. ALSO INCLUDING A
BIT MORE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE LEADING LINE NATURE OF
THE SHALLOW CONVECTION OFF THE HRRR. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK
QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL SO WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE TO
SEE IF SOME LOCATIONS ESPCLY THE NC MOUNTAINS NEED TO GO INTO
WARNING STATUS WITH PERHAPS SOME EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATER.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EST TUESDAY...
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE POSTED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO INCLUDE
ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AN ABOVE NORMAL STANCE...
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY IS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A 996MB
SURFACE LOW PROGGED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT... SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATING A SWATH OF MOISTURE
PRODUCING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS VARY A BIT ON JUST HOW FAST TO EDGE THE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST PER TIMING OF THE PASSING SURFACE LOW...BUT AGREE
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE EARLIER THE TIMING THE GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE
LATER THE TIMING THE LESS THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AT THE VERY LEAST LOOKING AT LOW
CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO STORMS WHICH INITIALLY MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS. EVEN WHEN
THE STORMS FADE IN INTENSITY...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ITS
OWN SURGE OF WIND...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN 6-12 HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PEAK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER
ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SUGGESTING ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL HAVE CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS...ANY ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL BEHIND THE FRONT...
READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
FOLLOWING A WINDY AND GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND REDUCING THE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MOUNTAINS CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL HAVE THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER THE MID WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THROWING A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE.
WITH MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES NORTH OF I64 THURSDAY MORNING.
00Z GFS/ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS NORTHERN
STREAM LOW COMING ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS A NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...DEVELOPING THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SINCE THE NAM WAS A STRONG OUTLIER...IT WAS NOT
USED IN THIS FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS/ECM HAS THE REGION SATURATED AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILL COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING
WILL START FALLING INTO SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING GOING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WE HAVE
LOWERED THURSDAY HIGHS UNDER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 30S WEST AND IN THE
40S EAST. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY EVEN IF MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS ALL SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A WARM GROUND AND MODEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SNOW SHOULD START ACCUMULATING AFTER 400 PM AS WE START
TO LOSE HEATING AND THE SECONDARY LOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO PULL MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...REDUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A
CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING...WILL KEEP
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. IF SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TOTALS COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES WEST...4
INCHES ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST MONDAY...
SFC LOW MOVES UP AND OFF THE COAST WITH SOME WEAK WRAP-AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS IN MTNS FRIDAY...BUT THIS ENDS QUICKLY AS YET
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SYSTEM IS POISED TO TRACK DOWN FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVE ACROSS APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER AND TRACKING SLIGHT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM...AND WOULD BRING ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO WRN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
IT MOVES INTO IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WHAT THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SO ANY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE CONFINED TO HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
ON WRN SLOPES. RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH GFS STILL SUGGEST ONE LAST WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NW FLOW MAY
SLOW DOWN THIS BUILDING RIDGE UNTIL TUES VS. MONDAY. OVERALL
THOUGH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS WELL...EDGING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/4PM...
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS...NO NO
ISSUES WITH CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
TROUGH ENTERING THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL BE AMPLIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY TONIGHT...
THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 8 TO 12 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK MAY EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL STORM WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF SUB- VFR IN RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
OBVIOUS FIRST CONCERN IS FALLING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACT FOR MORNING COMMUTE. SHORT WAVE MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS THROUGH AREA WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW NOW EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN FORMING IN AREA OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL /700-
800 MB/ FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED NARROW AREA OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS WAVE MOVES IN...BUT HAVE BEEN A BIT PATCHY. WOULD
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING.
AREA OF SNOW ALSO SET UP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED WITH
BRIEF DRY SLOT OVER WARNED COUNTY IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH INCOMING HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AS LAST BAND MOVES
THROUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK. COULD SEE SOME 2-3" ADDITIONS BEFORE THINGS
END BY MID MORNING. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SNOW COVERED ROADS FOR
MORNING COMMUTE AND TOUGH DECISIONS FOR SCHOOLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. LUCKILY SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING SO DELAYS MIGHT WORK OUT WELL
FOR MANY. WILL DOWN GRADE WARNED AREA BUT EXPAND ADVISORIES THIS
MORNING BECAUSE OF THE TOTALS SO FAR AND IMPACT THAT IS EXPECTED ON
MORNING TRAVEL.
IN WAKE OF WAVE AFTER SNOW ENDS THIS MORNING...WILL SEE COOLER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND CLOUDS CLEARING. GIVEN SOME FRESH SNOW COVER
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
BY SEVERAL CATEGORIES...WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MINOR FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE REST OF WORK WEEK CENTER ON SHORT
WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND SNOW THREATS WITH EACH.
ALL MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE
CENTRAL MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE WORRIED THAT THIS
FORCING COULD BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT MODELS INSIST
ON BREAKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL NORTHEAST OF FEATURE. WILL
KEEP HIGHER SNOW CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR
STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE CLOSER TO FORECAST AREA AND COULD SEE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY AND LOCATION.
PERHAPS BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...WITH 40S EXPECTED...CLIMING INTO THE 50S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN PERIOD OF SOME RAIN/SHOWERS AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS EVENING INDICATES THE TWO SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS HAVE YET TO MERGE. THE LEAD WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE SECOND WAVE WAS COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA. THIS ESSENTIALLY HAS ALLOWED THE TWO AREAS OF SNOW
TO REMAIN SEPARATED WITH THE EAST/WEST BAND NORTH OF THE LOW IN
THE FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS. THE OTHER AREA
AHEAD OF THE SECOND WAVE WAS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE SEPARATE
PRECIPITATION AREAS AND TAKES THE EAST/WEST BAND OFF TO THE EAST
WITHOUT IT GETTING TO THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE AREA COMING IN
FROM THE WEST NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH AIRPORTS.
CONDITIONS GO DOWN TO IFR WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW AND WILL SHOW
THIS AS PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KRST AND IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KLSE. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VISIBILITY GOING BACK UP TO VFR WHILE THE CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. IT SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES
WITH VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ095-096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1131 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
GETTING A BIT MORE CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK
FOR THE SNOW MAKER EXPECTED TO SWEEP WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN POINTING TO A SPLIT SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOT PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH UNTIL IT
APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. STILL...THIS BIT OF ENERGY SHOULD PACK A
BIT OF A PUNCH. SOME QG CONVERGENCE WITH IT...AND GOOD SLOPING LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...PER NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING X-SECTIONS.
300 MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST LIFT LOCALLY SITS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI...FOCUSED MORE IN THE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z TIME FRAME.
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL EXTEND HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT QUESTION
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND 12Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL WORK A
BIT FARTHER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. NOW...ACCUMULATING SNOWS WORK
WELL INTO THE I-90 CORRIDOR...VENTURING A BIT NORTH OF THERE.
GRANTED...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE...BUT
EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS BRING SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. THAT SAID...THE
MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK TO KEEP SNOW SOUTH...AND/OR
CHANGE TO A FINER/LOWER RATIO/LOWER ACCUMULATION KIND OF SNOW.
TOUGH CALL HERE.
FOR AMOUNTS...STRONGEST LIFT/HIGHEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI...AND SO WILL BE THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. SOME WARM
AIR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF SLEET
AT TIMES...BUT EXPECT THIS WILL STAY SOUTH. LOOKING AT 3 TO 6 FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME...MOST FALLING BETWEEN 06-
12Z. CONSALL SUGGESTING HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...AND GAVE SOME CONSIDERATIONS TO EXTENDING THE WARNING INTO
NORTHEAST IA. CONS LOOKS A BIT HIGH IN QPF SO OPTED TO NOT AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING IS STRONGEST
HERE...AND WITH A MOSTLY WEST-EAST ORIENTATED BOUNDARY...MAKES THIS
LOCATION FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH THERE
ARE THOSE DRY AIR ISSUES BEING A LIMITING FACTOR. ALSO GAVE SOME
CONSIDERATION TO EXPANDING AN ADV INTO VERNON COUNTY...BUT HELD OFF
FOR THE MOMENT. THIS TOO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
HEADLINES HOLD WITH PREVIOUS CONFIGURATION WITH ONE CHANGE TO A
START TIME OF 03Z. MADE ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST EXPECTED ONSET
TIME AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
EXPECTED WINDS AREN/T THAT HIGH...AND DOESN/T LOOK LIKE SNOW RATIOS
EQUATE TO A SNOW THAT WILL BE EASILY MOVED. SO...IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH RIDGING SLATED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
FLOW COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ONLY SHOWING
AGREEMENT ON FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD
SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI...BRINGING AN AREA OF SNOW TO
THE REGION FOR MOSTLY THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
NORTHWEST FLOW A LOFT SETS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...USHERING IN SOME COLD AIR TO KICK OF MARCH. 850 MB TEMPS
TUMBLE TO -14 C TUE NIGHT...HOVERING AROUND -10 C INTO FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD/GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SINGLE DIGITS LOOK GOOD
FOR MANY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH ZERO.
BY THE WEEKEND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...PROMISING
A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
WARMING COMPARED TO THE GFS...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO THE GFS. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH THIS FAR OUT FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS EVENING INDICATES THE TWO SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS HAVE YET TO MERGE. THE LEAD WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE SECOND WAVE WAS COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA. THIS ESSENTIALLY HAS ALLOWED THE TWO AREAS OF SNOW
TO REMAIN SEPARATED WITH THE EAST/WEST BAND NORTH OF THE LOW IN
THE FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS. THE OTHER AREA
AHEAD OF THE SECOND WAVE WAS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE SEPARATE
PRECIPITATION AREAS AND TAKES THE EAST/WEST BAND OFF TO THE EAST
WITHOUT IT GETTING TO THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE AREA COMING IN
FROM THE WEST NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH AIRPORTS.
CONDITIONS GO DOWN TO IFR WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW AND WILL SHOW
THIS AS PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KRST AND IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KLSE. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VISIBILITY GOING BACK UP TO VFR WHILE THE CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. IT SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES
WITH VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ054-055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ061.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1055 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.AVIATION... CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/SOME IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH THURSDAY. (46)
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN AND DEVELOPING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE NW.
THIS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE TOO
SUBSTANTIAL OF A COOL DOWN WITH THIS AIR MASS...BASICALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES AT BEST.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SFC BASED LIFT WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO GREATER POPS THAN IS PRESENT IN THE
EXISTING FORECAST. SHORTER TERM HRRR AND THE NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP IN GREATER
COVERAGE THAN IS COVERED IN THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO I AM
BOOSTING POPS UP QUITE A BIT OVER THE EXISTING FORECAST.
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. FOR THIS
REASON I SCALED BACK MODEL BASED QPF VALUES SOMEWHAT.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOK GOOD. RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH QUITE A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER STRONG JET. ON THE DOWNSIDE THE OVERALL
PARCEL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
LIMITATIONS WILL BE A FACTOR.
FOR NOW I AM WORDING THE WEATHER GRIDS AS SHOWERS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER IF OVERNIGHT TRENDS
START TO SHOW MORE LIGHTNING...THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS MORE PROMINENTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DURING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT BUT IT WILL STALL OUT AND
BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AS IT LIFTS BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE STATE AS A WARM FRONT.
STARTING SUNDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX REGION AS A VERY DEEP TROUGH SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. EACH OF THESE IMPULSES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER MONDAY EVENING...AND FINALLY A STRONGER ONE ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS
UP...WITH MODELS FORECASTING DEWPOINTS 60-65F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT IS STILL THE
DAY 7 FORECAST PERIOD WHICH IS TO SAY THERE IS A LOT OF TIME FOR
THIS TO CHANGE. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 45 61 38 58 / 70 50 0 0
CAMDEN AR 52 71 41 67 / 50 50 0 0
HARRISON AR 43 58 34 61 / 50 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 67 40 64 / 70 30 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 65 40 62 / 70 40 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 51 67 42 62 / 60 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 66 38 65 / 60 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 45 59 35 60 / 60 30 0 0
NEWPORT AR 43 61 38 56 / 60 70 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 46 64 40 61 / 50 40 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 46 65 37 63 / 80 30 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 62 38 59 / 70 70 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 63 39 59 / 60 60 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
202 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 200 AM EST...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE
VALLEY. A COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY PROVIDING THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THESE
SQUALLS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS A
QUICK INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AS WELL FOR
LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 88 WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY UNDERNEATH THE SQUALL. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR HAS NOT CAPTURED THIS ACTIVITY WELL IF AT
ALL...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS USING A
NOWCAST APPROACH.
THESE SNOW SQUALLS AND SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
BEFORE ENDING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...WINDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SHOULD FEATURE GUSTS LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE AREA...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...LOWS AROUND 0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WILL A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY THANKS TO NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND A DOWNSLOPING BREEZE.
SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT COULD BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRUSH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COATING TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES AT SOME
POINT...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON THE FAR
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME MID TO UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AND RAPIDLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP THERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO OUR
NORTH. THE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN NORTHERN AREAS BUT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...BUT AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY INTO
THE 60S WITH UPPER 50S NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY.
THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS HANGING AROUND AT KPSF THROUGH
10Z...SO WE ASSIGNED A TEMPO GROUP THERE.
OTHERWISE THERE WILL SKC-SCT040 TODAY WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.
THE GUSTY NW WINDS HAVE ABATED EXCEPT AT KPSF...AND BY 10Z ALL
THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10KTS (OR A
LITTLE LESS) FROM NW DIRECTION WITH FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT GUSTS.
THROUGH 10Z...WE STILL HAVE GUSTS TO 20KTS AT KPSF.
LOOK FOR A NW WIND TO CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS THROUGHOUT TODAY.
A STORM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER IT WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY DURING THE EVENING PEAK
AND PERHAPS BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE KPOU
BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH JUST VCSH BY
05Z AT KPOU AND WILL FINE TUNE ANY PROJECTED SNOWFALL THAT COULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT.
AS A RESULT OF THE DRY AND RELATIVELY COLD WEATHER...RIVER AND
STREAMS LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO EITHER SLOWLY RECEDE OR HOLD
STEADY. THE COLD WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ICE TO BUILD...BUT MILDER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
227 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
826 PM CST
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POP/WX BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE RUNS...PRIMARILY TO
TIGHTEN UP POP GRADIENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TO ADD SOME
DETAIL TO TIMING OF SNOW ONSET FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS INTO PARTS OF CHICAGO/KANKAKEE AREAS BY/SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS FROM 18Z 4KM NAM AND SEVERAL
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE KANKAKEE COUNTY IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH GUIDANCE FOCUSING BETTER (2-4)
SNOW ACCUMULATION AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SQI-
VYS-JOT-IKK AREAS.
MID-EVENING REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTING PATCHY BANDED RETURNS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF IL PORTION
OF CWA. STRONGER (20-25 DBZ) ECHOES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT
IN FORMING/WEAKENING IN REGIONS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKLY FOCUSED
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ALSO HELPING TO KEEP BETTER RETURNS
LIMITED INITIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY LARGE TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS BELOW ABOUT 700 MB AS DEPICTED BY EARLY EVENING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD/MDW. GRADUALLY SEEING MORE CLOUD LAYERS BELOW
5000 FT HOWEVER AND SAVANNA IL (KSFY) ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI TO OUR
WEST NOW REPORTING 3SM IN LIGHT SNOW...SO LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SOON ACROSS IL COUNTIES WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO.
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT TRANSIENT BASED ON
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE F-GEN FIELDS IN VARIOUS MODELS DURING THE
DURATION OF THIS EVENT...THOUGH PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE FORCING AROUND THE 285 K SURFACE INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER ASCENT DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY VORT TRACK LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF GREATEST QPF
FROM SQI/VYS THROUGH JOT/IKK AREAS...WHERE IT APPEARS AMOUNTS OF
3-4 INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY. AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO 1-2
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...AND INTO CENTRAL IL/IN WHERE
THERMAL PROFILES BECOME MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SO OVERALL...TRIED TO TIGHTEN UP POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNT AXIS JUST A
BIT BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS...ALONG WITH ADDING KANKAKEE
COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NO BIG DEAL...BUT TIMING
WILL IMPACT MORNING COMMUTE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
258 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT...SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN LATE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES BETWEEN 1-88 AND 1-80. THIS
ADVISORY IS STRICTLY FOR IMPACTS TO THE MORNING RUSH FROM THE SNOW
AS WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW WILL
PICK UP IN THE MORNING AFTER 4AM WITH MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN TO STEADY
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...ONLY EXPECTING 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH SNOW PICKING UP AND IMPACTING THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR. EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES TO BE FROM SOUTHWEST KANE COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO GRUNDY
COUNTY AND POINTS WEST...INCLUDING THE MENDOTA AND AMBOY AREAS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY SUNRISE. THE LOW CURRENTLY
FORMING OVER THE PLAINS REACHES THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT STEADY SNOW EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE QUITE EASILY. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO RENSSELAER IN LINE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS SOUTH OF THAT LINE MAY SEE A BREAK IN SNOW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE SNOW MAY
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND LEAD TO VERY LIGHT SNOW. HAVE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SOUTH OF THE PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SNOW INTENSIFIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DURING RUSH HOUR.
SNOW RATES INCREASE TO AROUND A HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT THE
BIGGER IMPACTS WILL BE VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES.
PERIODS OF 1/2SM VISIBILITY IS VERY PSBL...WHICH WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS.
EXPECTING THE INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY BECAUSE OMEGA INCREASES
JUST BELOW THE DGZ ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COULD SEE
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IF THE FORCING ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE DGZ. WINNEBAGO THROUGH LAKE IL COUNTIES IN FAR
NORTHERN IL WILL SEE LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS WHY THESE COUNTIES ARE
NOT IN THE ADVISORY.
AREAS WELL SOUTH OF 1-80 WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY SO
EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IS THE
REASON THIS AREA WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SATURATED SOUNDINGS WARM THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO ALL RAIN.
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY WITH EAST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH. AN
OCNL GUST TO 20 MPH IS PSBL. THE SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND A LITTLE...BUT
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOWER
WIND SPEEDS.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
249 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL BUT PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THEN PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ONE MORE TYPICAL OF
SPRING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE GET
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...
BACK END OF DEFORMATION ZONE FROM DEPARTING LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT DRY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY WITH MID LEVEL WAA OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STILL ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM MINNESOTA FRIDAY EVENING
TO ACROSS IL/IN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THEN
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FINALLY MAKING A STRONG SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MID
40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH SUNDAY...AND BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE/WET WEATHER AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CUT-OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER MIDWEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK BUT HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SNOW HAS ERODED THE
LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER AND ANTICIPATE LIGHT SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY
TO CONTINUE WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN VSBY MOSTLY BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR...THOUGH BRIEF LIFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THE MORE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE...CIGS SHOULD BUILD
DOWN TO IFR BY BY EARLY THURS MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY SOUTH. CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
227 AM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS
NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...FURTHER SOUTH AND AS A RESULT THE
GRADIENT DOESN/T APPEAR TO TIGHTEN AS MUCH OVER THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FASTER THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL BE WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT
CROSSES THE LAKE...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. THE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS ON SATURDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. A
SHORT PERIOD OF 15-25KT IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER THE LAKE AND WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS SUNDAY NIGHT.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019 UNTIL 10
AM THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...6 AM
THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1052 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
826 PM CST
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POP/WX BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE RUNS...PRIMARILY TO
TIGHTEN UP POP GRADIENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TO ADD SOME
DETAIL TO TIMING OF SNOW ONSET FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS INTO PARTS OF CHICAGO/KANKAKEE AREAS BY/SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS FROM 18Z 4KM NAM AND SEVERAL
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE KANKAKEE COUNTY IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH GUIDANCE FOCUSING BETTER (2-4)
SNOW ACCUMULATION AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SQI-
VYS-JOT-IKK AREAS.
MID-EVENING REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTING PATCHY BANDED RETURNS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF IL PORTION
OF CWA. STRONGER (20-25 DBZ) ECHOES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT
IN FORMING/WEAKENING IN REGIONS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKLY FOCUSED
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ALSO HELPING TO KEEP BETTER RETURNS
LIMITED INITIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY LARGE TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS BELOW ABOUT 700 MB AS DEPICTED BY EARLY EVENING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD/MDW. GRADUALLY SEEING MORE CLOUD LAYERS BELOW
5000 FT HOWEVER AND SAVANNA IL (KSFY) ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI TO OUR
WEST NOW REPORTING 3SM IN LIGHT SNOW...SO LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SOON ACROSS IL COUNTIES WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO.
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT TRANSIENT BASED ON
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE F-GEN FIELDS IN VARIOUS MODELS DURING THE
DURATION OF THIS EVENT...THOUGH PERSISTENT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE FORCING AROUND THE 285 K SURFACE INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER ASCENT DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY VORT TRACK LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF GREATEST QPF
FROM SQI/VYS THROUGH JOT/IKK AREAS...WHERE IT APPEARS AMOUNTS OF
3-4 INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY. AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO 1-2
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...AND INTO CENTRAL IL/IN WHERE
THERMAL PROFILES BECOME MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SO OVERALL...TRIED TO TIGHTEN UP POP/QPF/SNOW AMOUNT AXIS JUST A
BIT BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS...ALONG WITH ADDING KANKAKEE
COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NO BIG DEAL...BUT TIMING
WILL IMPACT MORNING COMMUTE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
258 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT...SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN LATE THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES BETWEEN 1-88 AND 1-80. THIS
ADVISORY IS STRICTLY FOR IMPACTS TO THE MORNING RUSH FROM THE SNOW
AS WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW WILL
PICK UP IN THE MORNING AFTER 4AM WITH MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN TO STEADY
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...ONLY EXPECTING 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH SNOW PICKING UP AND IMPACTING THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR. EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES TO BE FROM SOUTHWEST KANE COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO GRUNDY
COUNTY AND POINTS WEST...INCLUDING THE MENDOTA AND AMBOY AREAS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY SUNRISE. THE LOW CURRENTLY
FORMING OVER THE PLAINS REACHES THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT STEADY SNOW EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE QUITE EASILY. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF A PONTIAC IL TO RENSSELAER IN LINE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS SOUTH OF THAT LINE MAY SEE A BREAK IN SNOW
OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE SNOW MAY
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND LEAD TO VERY LIGHT SNOW. HAVE MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SOUTH OF THE PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SNOW INTENSIFIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DURING RUSH HOUR.
SNOW RATES INCREASE TO AROUND A HALF INCH PER HOUR...BUT THE
BIGGER IMPACTS WILL BE VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES.
PERIODS OF 1/2SM VISIBILITY IS VERY PSBL...WHICH WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS.
EXPECTING THE INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY BECAUSE OMEGA INCREASES
JUST BELOW THE DGZ ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COULD SEE
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IF THE FORCING ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE DGZ. WINNEBAGO THROUGH LAKE IL COUNTIES IN FAR
NORTHERN IL WILL SEE LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS WHY THESE COUNTIES ARE
NOT IN THE ADVISORY.
AREAS WELL SOUTH OF 1-80 WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY SO
EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IS THE
REASON THIS AREA WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SATURATED SOUNDINGS WARM THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO ALL RAIN.
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY WITH EAST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH. AN
OCNL GUST TO 20 MPH IS PSBL. THE SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND A LITTLE...BUT
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOWER
WIND SPEEDS.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
249 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL BUT PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THEN PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ONE MORE TYPICAL OF
SPRING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE GET
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...
BACK END OF DEFORMATION ZONE FROM DEPARTING LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT DRY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY WITH MID LEVEL WAA OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STILL ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DIVE FROM MINNESOTA FRIDAY EVENING
TO ACROSS IL/IN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THEN
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FINALLY MAKING A STRONG SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MID
40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH SUNDAY...AND BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE/WET WEATHER AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CUT-OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER MIDWEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK BUT HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SNOW HAS ERODED THE
LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER AND ANTICIPATE LIGHT SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY
TO CONTINUE WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN VSBY MOSTLY BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR...THOUGH BRIEF LIFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THE MORE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE...CIGS SHOULD BUILD
DOWN TO IFR BY BY EARLY THURS MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY SOUTH. CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
249 PM CST
WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP STARTING EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD LAKE
MICHIGAN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUNDAY AS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.2 INCHES STRETCHES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES
IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDDAY THURSDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE OF 30.2 INCHES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
LAKES SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.9 INCHES WILL DROP INTO MINNESOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY AND
MOVES TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019 UNTIL 10
AM THURSDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...6 AM
THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
338 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Early this morning a shortwave trough was embedded within the
northwesterly flow aloft, with water vapor imagery showing this wave
clipping northeast Kansas. This passing wave helped to push surface
low pressure into the area with a cold front advancing out of the
forecast area. There was enough lift and mid-level moisture from
this frontal passage and shortwave trough to support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms last night through early this
morning. Short-range models show these scattered showers gradually
becoming more widely scattered before eventually dissipating around
or shortly after sunrise this morning. Mid-level cloud cover will
stick around through mid morning before quickly scattering out and
making way for mostly sunny skies by this afternoon. Northwesterly
winds will prevail as a result of the early morning frontal passage,
with enough of a pressure gradient in place to support gusts of 20-
30mph late morning into early this afternoon. These northwesterly
winds will support some cold air advection, keeping temperatures
cooler than yesterday with afternoon highs only reaching into the
low/mid 50s. Surface high pressure will track eastward over the
forecast area late this afternoon through tonight, causing winds to
shift to the southeast by Friday morning. The combination of mostly
clear skies and light winds will support decent radiational cooling
and low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Friday will see dry conditions with broad upper level ridging in
place. Most guidance seems to have been fairly consistent over the
past few days hinting at the set up for dry conditions to cause
elevated fire weather concerns over northeastern Kansas in the
afternoon Friday as southwest flow at the surface through the mid
levels sets up in response to a lee side trough in place. Although
some high clouds will likely be in place, the atmosphere remains
very dry and will likely mix down some of the dry air to the
surface. As temps rise in the afternoon with dry adibatic
conditions being the rule, expect winds to gust as high as 30mph. As
models tend to do this time of year, the RH values may not have been
low enough. Therefore, lowered dewpoints a degree or two for Friday
afternoon while also increasing the temps by just about the same.
This seems like the likely scenario given the synoptic set up in
place and fairly strong subsidence in place. Saturday remains very
dry, but slightly cooler with a dry cold frontal passage having
taken place. Winds will not be a concern as they should shift to the
northeast and be light enough to not create as elevated of a fire
danger concern.
Into the extended period beginning Sunday afternoon time frame, fire
weather concerns subside as the switch over to possible
thunderstorms takes place with a fairly good amount of WAA beginning
to draw up a good moisture plume for this time of year.
Dewpoints in the mid 50s could be in place by Monday afternoon. The
first shortwave emerging out of the Central Rockies on Sunday ahead
of larger wave trough digging over the Western CONUS into the Desert
Southwest will help to begin to draw this better moisture north from
the Gulf. The ECMWF is a bit more agressive with the overall system
as well as deeper, so have essentially compromised in the long term
with the GFS as there were no major initialization concerns. Into
Sunday afternoon, this lead shortwave will cause isentropic ascent
over southeastern KS and possibly have enough lift and moisture
advection to begin light precip in the form of rain as the
atmosphere continues to saturate. Have kept mention of thunder in
the forecast generally into Monday and Tuesday over northeastern KS
as deep moisture continues to build into the region ahead of a
second major shortwave with a narrow axis of instability working
through the region. While shear profiles increase and a fairly nice
dryline also works toward the region, the atmosphere still appears
to be capped but given the deepening low and continued WAA in place,
perhaps enough factors may come together to erode the cap and cause
a few thunderstorms to form. Whether these would be severe or not
remains to be seen at this point. Again, the better dynamics at
this point seem to be positioned further south over the Southern
Plains and if anything, the trend with models has been pushing
further south with the southern branch of the jet stream.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1103 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR conditions are expect to persist through the night as some dry
air remains in the low levels. The one potential wrench in this
forecast is the NAM showing a brief period of MVFR CIGS around
12Z. The RAP and GFS are a little less obvious in the RH progs and
there aren`t a lot of low clouds upstream across eastern NEB or
western IA. Therefore have maintained a VFR forecast and will
monitor trends. Precip timing is based on the latest HRRR/RAP/NAM
consensus, which fits in fairly well with the prev forecast.
Impact from the light showers at the terminals is expected to be
minor with conditions remaining VFR.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
201 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS EAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY PUSHED THROUGH OUR CWA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THERE IS STILL TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN OUR EASTERN CWA DUE TO A MESO LOW
APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS.
TODAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THESE PERIODS...SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS MOVING INTO OUR CWA...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN VERY DRY ON ALL GUIDANCE...SO
DESPITE A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.
NAM/SREF ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
MOIST RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. BL/SURFACE WINDS AND PROJECTED
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR STRATUS...AND I
DECIDED AGAINST ADDING FOG MENTION.
A CHANGE I MADE DURING THIS UPDATE WAS TO TREND HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AS FRONT ALREADY APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR CWA BY 18Z AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE A BIT
MORE OPAQUE/EXTENSIVE. THIS STILL RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 70F IN OUR SOUTH TO MID 60S IN OUR NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
EXPECTATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AFTERWORD. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE LOW 70S...POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S IF FULL 850MB MIXING OCCURS.
THIS IS AROUND 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO
VERY MILD WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST).
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFTING OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT
ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES. WINDS DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST HUMIDITY LOOK TO
BE FROM THE WEST AROUND 15KTS OR SO AND POSSIBLY GUSTY...CREATING A
BORDERLINE CASE FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW/MID 50S TO LOW 60S LOOKS GOOD PER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
EXTENDED PROCEDURE GENERATED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER IN THAT AREA BUT IT LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AND
MAY BE WHY MODELS DONT GENERATE ANY MOISTURE FROM IT. WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF IT FOR NOW BUT IT DOESNT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED PROCEDURE POPULATED THE
WEDNESDAY DAY PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SAME
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AS TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...RIGHT NOW
MOISTURE DOESNT APPEAR ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS IMPACTED BY THE POPS WILL KEEP
IT IN FOR NOW. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER
50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH FEW-SCT120-250.
WINDS WNW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS THRU 22Z...THEN NW
AROUND 10 KTS. BY 02Z FRIDAY...MAINLY SW AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
RH MAY DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
WEST AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN OUR SOUTH. ANY GUSTY WINDS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY AND LOWER RH VALUES IN
THE AFTERNOON...SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER IT DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY THAT 3HR CRITERIA WOULD
BE MET DUE TO MARGINAL RH VALUES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. IT
COULD BE CLOSE IN OUR FAR SOUTH IF TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER. IF
LOWER TDS ARE ABLE TO MIX SATURDAY WE COULD SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MET OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THIS TIME
MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING RH JUST ABOVE CRITERIA. THESE PERIODS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NO WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1103 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
The strong pressure gradient and associated low level jet will relax
this evening causing the winds to diminish. In the meantime deep
mixing has occurred across east central KS, and red flag criteria
has been met. Therefore the red flag warning will continue until 6
pm this evening. Later tonight a few weak shortwaves will track
southeastward across the area. The waves will bring steep mid level
lapse rates and some weak isentropic lift. The steep lapse rates
along with mid level moisture will support elevated cape on the
order of 200 j/kg right ahead of the waves. High based showers with
some embedded thunder could form in north central KS this evening
and move eastward and southeastward overnight. Most of the models
are indicating at least some precip across the area, but these
showers appear scattered in nature and will only produce light
amounts. Especially given the deep mixing and low level dry air in
place.
A cold front will also sweep through the area shifting the winds to
the northwest by sunrise tomorrow. Wind gusts 20 to 30 mph will
occur behind the front and persist through the morning. A second
slightly stronger shortwave will track over the area behind the
initial wave during the late morning. Although this secondary wave
appears to be competing with some isentropic downglide therefore it
may be difficult to form any precip. If any showers were to form it
would most likely take place around sunrise and be more isolated.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s, while
highs tomorrow only reach the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Thursday night through Saturday night, the upper pattern will be
progressive with a southern stream upper ridge moving east across
the southern and central plains on Friday.
A lee surface trough will deepen across the southern high plains and
will cause southerly winds to increase to 15 to 25 MPH across
eastern KS. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s Friday
afternoon.
An upper level trough will round the upper ridge axis across
southern Canada, then did southeast across the upper midwest and
Great Lakes states. Low-level cold air advection will cause a
weak cold front to push southward across the CWA Friday night.
North winds of 10 to 20 MPH during the morning will become light
by afternoon. Highs will warm once again into the lower to mid
60s.
Sunday through Wednesday, An intense upper level trough will amplify
across the southwest US and will eventually move east across central
TX on Wednesday. Ahead of this amplified trough a few lead short
wave troughs will lift northeast across the southern and central
plains. The first lead upper trough will lift northeast across KS
and OK on Sunday. Ahead of the trough deeper gulf moisture will
return northward increasing isentropic lift late Saturday night and
Sunday morning and may provide the CWA with a chance for elevated
thunderstorms. The scattered showers and thunderstorms may last
through the day due to increased ascent ahead of the first lead
upper trough and deeper moisture return. Southerly winds will keep
temperatures mild despite cloud cover and chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Highs will reach the lower to mid 60s.
Monday, a more amplified lead trough will lift northeast from the
four corners region into western KS by Monday afternoon. The ECMWF
shows the deeper gulf moisture will be in place ahead of a surface
dryline that will move into central KS. If skies clear and
instability increases ahead of the dryline, then we could see strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms develop across central and north
central KS ahead of the surface dryline. The GFS model veers the
850mb and surface winds ahead of the lead H5 trough, which would
reduce the low-level vertical wind shear. Timing and the
possibility of keeping cloud cover through the day Monday may
negate the potential for severe thunderstorms development across
the CWA. Monday will be warmer with the stronger WAA. Highs on
Monday should reach the lower to mid 70s. If we see more
insolation through the late morning and early afternoon hours,
highs may reach into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Monday night through Tuesday night, The deep upper low across
southern AZ move east into far west TX. A weak cold front that will
move southeast of the CWA will become stationary, while 850mb winds
back to the south and transport deeper moisture north of the surface
boundary. The resulting isentropic lift along with ascent ahead of a
50 to 60 KT H5 jet max will provide periods of showers and
thunderstorms through the period. northwest winds and periods of
showers and thunderstorms will keep temperatures cooler in the lower
to mid 60s.
Wednesday, the deep upper low will slowly move east into west central
TX. A surface low will deepen across southeast OK and move east into
far southern AZ. There may be enough lift due to ascent on the left
exit region of mid level jet combined with isentropic lift for
scattered showers to continue across the CWA. The GFS model is
farther south with the upper low, moving it east across the southern
TX. If the GFS were to verify then the rain chances would end
Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy skies along with low-level cold air
advection will keep highs in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1103 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR conditions are expect to persist through the night as some dry
air remains in the low levels. The one potential wrench in this
forecast is the NAM showing a brief period of MVFR CIGS around
12Z. The RAP and GFS are a little less obvious in the RH progs and
there aren`t a lot of low clouds upstream across eastern NEB or
western IA. Therefore have maintained a VFR forecast and will
monitor trends. Precip timing is based on the latest HRRR/RAP/NAM
consensus, which fits in fairly well with the prev forecast.
Impact from the light showers at the terminals is expected to be
minor with conditions remaining VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
A Red Flag Warning will continue for the remainder of this
afternoon for portions of eastern Kansas. Relative Humidities have
dropped blow 20 percent along with 30 to 50 MPH wind gusts this
afternoon. Do not burn the remainder of this afternoon!
There will be a very high to extreme rangeland fire index friday
afternoon across the CWA. At this time in the forecast, minimum
RHs will be in the 20 to 30 percent range and southerly wind gust
will be in the 30 MPH range. However, deeper mixing will likely
cause dewpoints to be lower than forecasted and wind gust to be
higher leading to extreme fire danger.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
111 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
THICKER CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
HAVE MOSTLY LIKELY BOTTOMED OUT AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME OF THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS REPORTING IN THE LOWER 20S. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND...SO WILL ONLY BE FRESHENING UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH DAWN TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE 0Z GFS IS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THICKNESSES AND COLUMN TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD
POINT TOWARD A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT ONSET TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
IT STILL DOES APPEAR THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD MEASURE ON
THURSDAY. THE 0Z NAM HAS SOME MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COOLS THE COLUMN TO NEAR FREEZING WHICH
WOULD POINT TOWARD SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
PARTICULAR TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S WITH A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
SETTING UP. LOWS FOR DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH
AND HAVE BEEN LOWERED A BIT CLOSER TO MODEL BLEND NUMBERS. THIS
LED TO A BIT SLOWER ANTICIPATED SFC TEMPERATURE RISE WHEN
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AS SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WHICH MIGHT ALLOW FOR A DUSTING TO LESS
THAN A HALF OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES IN
SOME AREAS PARTICULARLY RIDGETOPS. HOWEVER...NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL IN ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE VICINITY OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE EVENT. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS BECAUSE THE ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN MAY TRANSITION BACK TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPS
TONIGHT DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AND LOWS THAT
NIGHT DIPPING BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE JKL FORECAST AREA
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ITS INFLUENCE. A BIT OF LINGERING SNOW OR
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
ITS PRESENCE WILL BE FLEETING...AS IT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO ONLY
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY...AND PARK ITSELF
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS UP...WITH AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER NEXT WEEK...WHILE STRONG
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SLOWLY MOVING
REGIME WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WE
WILL NOT HAVE A GOOD TRAJECTORY OFF THE GULF AND SHOULD SEE OUR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE MORE SLOWLY WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS
FURTHER WEST. THIS WOULD HELP TO LIMIT OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
15 AND 18Z...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO MVFR...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1249 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2016
Temps are close to forecast lows, especially across the Bluegrass
region. Mid-level clouds continue to spread east from the mid
Mississippi Valley as the upper wave digs in, and will put the
brakes on any continued drop in temps. Have included a non-diurnal
temp curve overnight to reflect this.
Low confidence in precip type at onset Thursday morning. With so
much dry air to overcome, we have a sounding that could produce
snow, but it doesn`t seem like we have the forcing to squeeze out a
lot of precip quickly enough. Will not make substantial changes to
precip types until the midnight crew has a look at the 00Z guidance.
What is apparent is that if we end up with widespread precip to go
along with easterly winds, temps will have a really hard time
recovering during the day. Have trended Thu max temps down by a few
degrees, with lower to mid 40s in most locations. Will have a hard
time cracking 40 in the northern Bluegrass.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2016
Finally getting some clearing as one system heads off to the east.
In its wake however is another system starting to bring in high
clouds. Low pressure associated with this system will move into
northern MO by daybreak Thursday. Weak isentropic lift over our area
will make for light radar returns by then. Dry low-level air should
weaken/dry out the precip somewhat, but as the day goes along that
dry air should moisten up...especially as the better lift comes
ahead of trough swinging through by late afternoon. By the time the
column moistens, we should just see all rain, but cannot rule out a
few flurries early on in the day. Rainfall totals look to range
from a tenth to two tenths of an inch.
After tonight`s lows around freezing, temperatures during the day
should mostly stay in the 40s, though a few 50s are possible across
south central KY. Will keep in some light precip on the back side of
the system Thursday night and associated cloud cover will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. This precip may see a transition
overnight from rain to snow as temperatures fall, especially over
the north, but still not looking at any significant accumulations.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2016
Friday we may start off with continued light precip over the
Bluegrass, but will keep pops silent as measurable snow looks
unlikely. Cloud cover should hold on for most of the day, so have
temperatures only in the low to mid 40s. High pressure will move
over the region Friday evening before shift east toward daybreak
Saturday.
Yet another trough will breeze through the region Saturday, bringing
another batch of light precip across the north. Southwesterly winds
ahead of this system will mean highs rising into the 50s. High
pressure will build in quickly behind this front, allowing
temperatures to fall into the 30s at night, close to normal like the
highs Saturday.
Sunday and Monday we should see another warmup, with increasing
southerly winds. Highs by Monday should be well into the 60s. We may
see some warm air advection showers Monday night west of I-65. Then
for Tuesday, the trend in the models has been for our storm chances
to remain west of I-65. That trend would keep us in the warm sector
and allow for high temperatures closer to 70. Then Tuesday night and
Wednesday both deterministic and ensemble solutions drift a front
into the region, perhaps stalling it. Thus will go with higher pops
and above normal temperatures with the muggy airmass. The type of
setup shown by the 12Z GFS and Euro are indicative of those that
bring flood conditions, so will have to watch how the models trend
over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2016
The latest 0Z guidance has trended colder and a bit snowier with the
northern stream low pressure system passing through the Ohio Valley
today. VFR conditions can be expected until precip associated with
this weather system arrives. All TAF sites look to begin as a cold
rain between 15-17Z with flight conditions quickly dropping to MVFR.
BWG should stay all rain for the remainder of the day and then
drizzle as precip ends tonight. SDF/LEX will be a bit colder and
precip may change over to snow especially in heavier bursts during
the afternoon hours and as temps cool during the evening hrs so have
added periods of -RASN to these TAFs. IFR conditions should begin
at all TAF sites by this afternoon and persist through the end of
the TAF period. VRB winds early this morning will become
predominantly ESE for much of the TAF period with wind speeds of 6-9
kts common this afternoon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1249 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2016
Temps are close to forecast lows, especially across the Bluegrass
region. Mid-level clouds continue to spread east from the mid
Mississippi Valley as the upper wave digs in, and will put the
brakes on any continued drop in temps. Have included a non-diurnal
temp curve overnight to reflect this.
Low confidence in precip type at onset Thursday morning. With so
much dry air to overcome, we have a sounding that could produce
snow, but it doesn`t seem like we have the forcing to squeeze out a
lot of precip quickly enough. Will not make substantial changes to
precip types until the midnight crew has a look at the 00Z guidance.
What is apparent is that if we end up with widespread precip to go
along with easterly winds, temps will have a really hard time
recovering during the day. Have trended Thu max temps down by a few
degrees, with lower to mid 40s in most locations. Will have a hard
time cracking 40 in the northern Bluegrass.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2016
Finally getting some clearing as one system heads off to the east.
In its wake however is another system starting to bring in high
clouds. Low pressure associated with this system will move into
northern MO by daybreak Thursday. Weak isentropic lift over our area
will make for light radar returns by then. Dry low-level air should
weaken/dry out the precip somewhat, but as the day goes along that
dry air should moisten up...especially as the better lift comes
ahead of trough swinging through by late afternoon. By the time the
column moistens, we should just see all rain, but cannot rule out a
few flurries early on in the day. Rainfall totals look to range
from a tenth to two tenths of an inch.
After tonight`s lows around freezing, temperatures during the day
should mostly stay in the 40s, though a few 50s are possible across
south central KY. Will keep in some light precip on the back side of
the system Thursday night and associated cloud cover will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. This precip may see a transition
overnight from rain to snow as temperatures fall, especially over
the north, but still not looking at any significant accumulations.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2016
Friday we may start off with continued light precip over the
Bluegrass, but will keep pops silent as measurable snow looks
unlikely. Cloud cover should hold on for most of the day, so have
temperatures only in the low to mid 40s. High pressure will move
over the region Friday evening before shift east toward daybreak
Saturday.
Yet another trough will breeze through the region Saturday, bringing
another batch of light precip across the north. Southwesterly winds
ahead of this system will mean highs rising into the 50s. High
pressure will build in quickly behind this front, allowing
temperatures to fall into the 30s at night, close to normal like the
highs Saturday.
Sunday and Monday we should see another warmup, with increasing
southerly winds. Highs by Monday should be well into the 60s. We may
see some warm air advection showers Monday night west of I-65. Then
for Tuesday, the trend in the models has been for our storm chances
to remain west of I-65. That trend would keep us in the warm sector
and allow for high temperatures closer to 70. Then Tuesday night and
Wednesday both deterministic and ensemble solutions drift a front
into the region, perhaps stalling it. Thus will go with higher pops
and above normal temperatures with the muggy airmass. The type of
setup shown by the 12Z GFS and Euro are indicative of those that
bring flood conditions, so will have to watch how the models trend
over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2016
The latest 0Z guidance has trended colder and a bit snowier with the
northern stream low pressure system passing through the Ohio Valley
today. VFR conditions can be expected until precip associated with
this weather system arrives. All TAF sites look to begin as a cold
rain between 15-17Z with flight conditions quickly dropping to MVFR.
BWG should stay all rain for the remainder of the day and then
drizzle as precip ends tonight. SDF/LEX will be a bit colder and
precip may change over to snow especially in heavier bursts during
the afternoon hours and as temps cool during the evening hrs so have
added periods of -RASN to these TAFs. IFR conditions should begin
at all TAF sites by this afternoon and persist through the end of
the TAF period. VRB winds early this morning will become
predominantly ESE for much of the TAF period with wind speeds of 6-9
kts common this afternoon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1249 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2016
Temps are close to forecast lows, especially across the Bluegrass
region. Mid-level clouds continue to spread east from the mid
Mississippi Valley as the upper wave digs in, and will put the
brakes on any continued drop in temps. Have included a non-diurnal
temp curve overnight to reflect this.
Low confidence in precip type at onset Thursday morning. With so
much dry air to overcome, we have a sounding that could produce
snow, but it doesn`t seem like we have the forcing to squeeze out a
lot of precip quickly enough. Will not make substantial changes to
precip types until the midnight crew has a look at the 00Z guidance.
What is apparent is that if we end up with widespread precip to go
along with easterly winds, temps will have a really hard time
recovering during the day. Have trended Thu max temps down by a few
degrees, with lower to mid 40s in most locations. Will have a hard
time cracking 40 in the northern Bluegrass.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2016
Finally getting some clearing as one system heads off to the east.
In its wake however is another system starting to bring in high
clouds. Low pressure associated with this system will move into
northern MO by daybreak Thursday. Weak isentropic lift over our area
will make for light radar returns by then. Dry low-level air should
weaken/dry out the precip somewhat, but as the day goes along that
dry air should moisten up...especially as the better lift comes
ahead of trough swinging through by late afternoon. By the time the
column moistens, we should just see all rain, but cannot rule out a
few flurries early on in the day. Rainfall totals look to range
from a tenth to two tenths of an inch.
After tonight`s lows around freezing, temperatures during the day
should mostly stay in the 40s, though a few 50s are possible across
south central KY. Will keep in some light precip on the back side of
the system Thursday night and associated cloud cover will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. This precip may see a transition
overnight from rain to snow as temperatures fall, especially over
the north, but still not looking at any significant accumulations.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2016
Friday we may start off with continued light precip over the
Bluegrass, but will keep pops silent as measurable snow looks
unlikely. Cloud cover should hold on for most of the day, so have
temperatures only in the low to mid 40s. High pressure will move
over the region Friday evening before shift east toward daybreak
Saturday.
Yet another trough will breeze through the region Saturday, bringing
another batch of light precip across the north. Southwesterly winds
ahead of this system will mean highs rising into the 50s. High
pressure will build in quickly behind this front, allowing
temperatures to fall into the 30s at night, close to normal like the
highs Saturday.
Sunday and Monday we should see another warmup, with increasing
southerly winds. Highs by Monday should be well into the 60s. We may
see some warm air advection showers Monday night west of I-65. Then
for Tuesday, the trend in the models has been for our storm chances
to remain west of I-65. That trend would keep us in the warm sector
and allow for high temperatures closer to 70. Then Tuesday night and
Wednesday both deterministic and ensemble solutions drift a front
into the region, perhaps stalling it. Thus will go with higher pops
and above normal temperatures with the muggy airmass. The type of
setup shown by the 12Z GFS and Euro are indicative of those that
bring flood conditions, so will have to watch how the models trend
over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2016
The latest 0Z guidance has trended colder and a bit snowier with the
northern stream low pressure system passing through the Ohio Valley
today. VFR conditions can be expected until precip associated with
this weather system arrives. All TAF sites look to begin as a cold
rain between 15-17Z with flight conditions quickly dropping to MVFR.
BWG should stay all rain for the remainder of the day and then
drizzle as precip ends tonight. SDF/LEX will be a bit colder and
precip may change over to snow especially in heavier bursts during
the afternoon hours and as temps cool during the evening hrs so have
added periods of -RASN to these TAFs. IFR conditions should begin
at all TAF sites by this afternoon and persist through the end of
the TAF period. VRB winds early this morning will become
predominantly ESE for much of the TAF period with wind speeds of 6-9
kts common this afternoon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1106 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance
UPDATE issued at 934 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Starting to see some decent signal for a drier forecast overnight
and Thursday over the north/northeast portions of the area. The
00Z NAM keeps the entire area dry through 12Z, and then spreads
precipitation eastward through southeast Missouri and much of west
Kentucky. The latest RAP and HRRR runs also have trended this way.
Decided to trend drier over the Evansville Tri State and the
Pennyrile region of west Kentucky through 12Z, and then blend with
the likely to categorical PoPs throughout the area later in the
day. Also trended warmer with overnight temperatures in the east,
with most places not likely to drop much from current levels,
unless there is enough precipitation to wet bulb which is unlikely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 258 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Clouds are starting to increase now, and will be working down from
the mid levels overnight as showers set in tmrw. Instability
parameters keep thunder chances just outside (mainly south) of PAH
FA thru the event, but with the surface/upper Low tracks across
the FA, wouldnt be shocked to see an isolated stroke. No consensus
for adding though, so went just showers for the event.
The system is positively tilted, filling, and weakening as it
moves across the FA. Good moisture influx and deep column moisture
advection means main impact will be qpf, with low end totals of
1/4 to 1/2" expected, and high end amounts approaching 1" not out
of the realm of possibility.
While a lingering sprinkle or two is not of the question, the
wetting rain event is over tmrw. Moisture does take awhile to
scour, so clouds could be stubborn/hang into Friday, particularly
east, before clearing out in earnest.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
The more significant weather during the extended period will be
focused toward the last day of the seven day forecast period
(Tuesday).
Through at least Sunday, the WFO PAH forecast area is expected to
gradually shift from northwest flow ahead of slowly moving westward
tilted upper level high pressure ridge to southerly flow as this
ridge axis moves over the area during the day on Sunday.
The net effect for the weekend will be dry weather and warmer
temperatures.
From Sunday night onward, both ensemble and deterministic guidance
carve out a convoluted mean trough over the western 1/2 of the U.S.
with successive shortwaves deepening the trough. There is a wide
variability in the exact location/orientation of the trough via the
12z Wednesday deterministic GFS/ECMWF, but both seem to show an
initial progressive trough over the northern Mexico and the desert
Southwest U.S., before becoming meridional by early Wednesday.
Given the open and strong fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture and the
persistent nature of the baroclinic gradient on the east side of
this trough, anticipate isentropically lifted shower activity will
dominate parts of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, as early
as Sunday night and persisting through Monday night.
Initially, it looks like Tuesday into Wednesday of next week (just
beyond the seven day forecast period) will be interesting. Model
Analogs from the GFS Ensemble suggest that there will be around a
50% probability of close to one half inch of rain with a 30%
probability in excess of one inch, mainly over Southeast Missouri and
part of Southwest Illinois. NCEP modeling center QPF plumes suggest
an average 2" precipitation between 12z Tuesday to 12z Wednesday of
next week centered near Paducah. An Atmospheric River forecast
forecast prog (presented by our SOO), suggests that deep moisture
will be working up the Mississippi River next week. The only caveat
to a heavy rain setup for part of the WFO PAH forecast area will be
intervening convective development that could occur over the Lower
Mississippi Valley, impacting parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and
Tennessee.
Regardless, it will be worth watching and planning for heavy rain
potential and possible severe weather early next week, beginning
with the Monday/Tuesday time frame. SPC is already monitoring the
potential for severe weather for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1106 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Widespread mid clouds around 10k feet will continue through the
night, possibly producing some virga. Unusually dry southeast winds
will evaporate the precip before it reaches the ground. Between 12z
and 18z Thursday, the low levels will moisten up as heavier
precipitation starts falling through the column. Cigs and vsbys will
lower to mvfr. A period of ifr conditions is likely for at least a
few hours where the heavier precip occurs. The 06z tafs will
forecast ifr at kcgi/kpah based on heavier precip rates in those
areas.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1107 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE 0Z GFS IS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THICKNESSES AND COLUMN TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD
POINT TOWARD A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT ONSET TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
IT STILL DOES APPEAR THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD MEASURE ON
THURSDAY. THE 0Z NAM HAS SOME MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COOLS THE COLUMN TO NEAR FREEZING WHICH
WOULD POINT TOWARD SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
PARTICULAR TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S WITH A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
SETTING UP. LOWS FOR DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH
AND HAVE BEEN LOWERED A BIT CLOSER TO MODEL BLEND NUMBERS. THIS
LED TO A BIT SLOWER ANTICIPATED SFC TEMPERATURE RISE WHEN
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AS SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WHICH MIGHT ALLOW FOR A DUSTING TO LESS
THAN A HALF OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES IN
SOME AREAS PARTICULARLY RIDGETOPS. HOWEVER...NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL IN ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE VICINITY OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE EVENT. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO DO
NOT EXPECT ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS BECAUSE THE ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN MAY TRANSITION BACK TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPS
TONIGHT DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AND LOWS THAT
NIGHT DIPPING BACK INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE JKL FORECAST AREA
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ITS INFLUENCE. A BIT OF LINGERING SNOW OR
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
ITS PRESENCE WILL BE FLEETING...AS IT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO ONLY
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY...AND PARK ITSELF
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS UP...WITH AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER NEXT WEEK...WHILE STRONG
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SLOWLY MOVING
REGIME WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WE
WILL NOT HAVE A GOOD TRAJECTORY OFF THE GULF AND SHOULD SEE OUR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE MORE SLOWLY WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS
FURTHER WEST. THIS WOULD HELP TO LIMIT OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE AND THICKENING OF CLOUDS
FROM ABOUT 6Z ON. STEADIER PRECIPITATION INITIALLY AS SNOW OR A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
14Z AND 20Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
934 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Starting to see some decent signal for a drier forecast overnight
and Thursday over the north/northeast portions of the area. The
00Z NAM keeps the entire area dry through 12Z, and then spreads
precipitation eastward through southeast Missouri and much of west
Kentucky. The latest RAP and HRRR runs also have trended this way.
Decided to trend drier over the Evansville Tri State and the
Pennyrile region of west Kentucky through 12Z, and then blend with
the likely to categorical PoPs throughout the area later in the
day. Also trended warmer with overnight temperatures in the east,
with most places not likely to drop much from current levels,
unless there is enough precipitation to wet bulb which is unlikely.
UPDATE issued at 525 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 258 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Clouds are starting to increase now, and will be working down from
the mid levels overnight as showers set in tmrw. Instability
parameters keep thunder chances just outside (mainly south) of PAH
FA thru the event, but with the surface/upper Low tracks across
the FA, wouldnt be shocked to see an isolated stroke. No consensus
for adding though, so went just showers for the event.
The system is positively tilted, filling, and weakening as it
moves across the FA. Good moisture influx and deep column moisture
advection means main impact will be qpf, with low end totals of
1/4 to 1/2" expected, and high end amounts approaching 1" not out
of the realm of possibility.
While a lingering sprinkle or two is not of the question, the
wetting rain event is over tmrw. Moisture does take awhile to
scour, so clouds could be stubborn/hang into Friday, particularly
east, before clearing out in earnest.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
The more significant weather during the extended period will be
focused toward the last day of the seven day forecast period
(Tuesday).
Through at least Sunday, the WFO PAH forecast area is expected to
gradually shift from northwest flow ahead of slowly moving westward
tilted upper level high pressure ridge to southerly flow as this
ridge axis moves over the area during the day on Sunday.
The net effect for the weekend will be dry weather and warmer
temperatures.
From Sunday night onward, both ensemble and deterministic guidance
carve out a convoluted mean trough over the western 1/2 of the U.S.
with successive shortwaves deepening the trough. There is a wide
variability in the exact location/orientation of the trough via the
12z Wednesday deterministic GFS/ECMWF, but both seem to show an
initial progressive trough over the northern Mexico and the desert
Southwest U.S., before becoming meridional by early Wednesday.
Given the open and strong fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture and the
persistent nature of the baroclinic gradient on the east side of
this trough, anticipate isentropically lifted shower activity will
dominate parts of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, as early
as Sunday night and persisting through Monday night.
Initially, it looks like Tuesday into Wednesday of next week (just
beyond the seven day forecast period) will be interesting. Model
Analogs from the GFS Ensemble suggest that there will be around a
50% probability of close to one half inch of rain with a 30%
probability in excess of one inch, mainly over Southeast Missouri and
part of Southwest Illinois. NCEP modeling center QPF plumes suggest
an average 2" precipitation between 12z Tuesday to 12z Wednesday of
next week centered near Paducah. An Atmospheric River forecast
forecast prog (presented by our SOO), suggests that deep moisture
will be working up the Mississippi River next week. The only caveat
to a heavy rain setup for part of the WFO PAH forecast area will be
intervening convective development that could occur over the Lower
Mississippi Valley, impacting parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and
Tennessee.
Regardless, it will be worth watching and planning for heavy rain
potential and possible severe weather early next week, beginning
with the Monday/Tuesday time frame. SPC is already monitoring the
potential for severe weather for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 525 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
Widespread mid clouds above 10k feet will continue through the
night, possibly producing some virga. Unusually dry southeast winds
will evaporate the precip before it reaches the ground. Between 12z
and 18z Thursday, the low levels will moisten up as heavier
precipitation starts falling through the column. Cigs and vsbys will
lower to mvfr. Conditions after 18z may further deteriorate to ifr,
depending on precip coverage and intensity. The 00z tafs will
forecast ifr at kevv/kowb based on their cooler, more easterly wind
flow.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN LAKES. WITH THE LIGHT NRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...LOW LEVEL CONV
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -18C SUPPORTED
SCT LES FROM ERN ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY.
TONIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING OR EVEN A MESO-LOW OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE LIGHT LES INTO ERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LAND BREEZES AND LAKE INDUCED CIRCULATIONS BECOME
MORE PROMINENT. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE LES NEAR THE ERN CWA
SHORELINE WILL DEVELOP IS LOW BUT THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AOB 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. ANY LES ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
REMAIN OFF SHORE. HOWEVER...A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW FROM LAKE MI MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE GARDEN PENINSULA OR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. AGAIN IN THE WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT...CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY LES THAT WILL AFFECT THE CWA IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTING OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z FRI THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT. NAM SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-
500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND
THE CONVERGENCE MOVES OUT FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE
SAME THING AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A 1-3 INCH
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT AND STILL KEPT
IN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE CWA WITH THE SNOW MOVING OUT SAT
MORNING. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
12Z SUN THAT MOVES TO THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z TUE WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE PCPN BEING MOSTLY RAIN AS IT IS
WARM ENOUGH EVEN AT NIGHT FOR IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS
IN WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH SAT. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SUN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO INCREASES
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO 25 KTS BY MON AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1143 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN LAKES. WITH THE LIGHT NRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...LOW LEVEL CONV
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -18C SUPPORTED
SCT LES FROM ERN ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY.
TONIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING OR EVEN A MESO-LOW OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE LIGHT LES INTO ERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LAND BREEZES AND LAKE INDUCED CIRCULATIONS BECOME
MORE PROMINENT. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE LES NEAR THE ERN CWA
SHORELINE WILL DEVELOP IS LOW BUT THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AOB 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. ANY LES ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
REMAIN OFF SHORE. HOWEVER...A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW FROM LAKE MI MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE GARDEN PENINSULA OR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. AGAIN IN THE WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT...CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY LES THAT WILL AFFECT THE CWA IS LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
BY 00Z FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND FAR SE
ONTARIO AND S QUEBEC. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BE ACCENTUATED BY AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN ON THE
NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC LOW WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA 09Z-21Z FRIDAY...AS
850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND -12C.
WAA TAKES HOLD OVER UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT NEARING FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS E ND/W MN. WAA SNOW WILL INVADE
W UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL MN AND
850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C. WHILE MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE
SFC LOW SINKING ACROSS CENTRAL WI FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING OVER UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS AN OUTLIER
BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE OUR FCST WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH...SHIFTING THE LOW ACROSS S WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST PRECIP TO AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER
WHERE 850MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -7C. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. QPF TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND
0.10 INCHES TO AROUND 0.20 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST EXPECTED ALONG
THE WI BORDER WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE LOCATED. THESE QPF
TOTALS WITH AROUND 13 TO 15 TO SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL GIVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. AGAIN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE WI BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC SATURDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...WITH ONLY A BRIEF TURN OF THE SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NW. BUT
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C OVER THE E HALF...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
WAA WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
LOW EXITS E AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS BY 18Z SUNDAY
WILL INCREASE TO 0 TO 6C /HIGHEST OFF THE GFS AS IT INDICATES 850MB
W-SW FLOW OF 40-55KTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/. EXPECT
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP TO START SUNDAY EVENING AS RAIN. THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES...SO WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS. A REBOUNDING 500MB
RIDGE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN INCREASED WAA INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY 12Z TUESDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
8C...ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 50F. WITH A STACKED SFC-
500MB LOW ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AND W MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
COULD BE AN INTERESTING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL
WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS GET MORE IN LINE BEFORE JUMPING ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO EJECT NE...SLIDING JUST NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY EVENING-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE S END OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE OVER WI/UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT AVERAGE NEARLY 12HRS. COULD BE A
WET AND WARM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS
IN WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH SAT. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SUN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO INCREASES
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO 25 KTS BY MON AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1131 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2016
Currently, the main upper level energy associated with the system
for later tonight and Thursday is over the northern High Plains,
near the interface between Wyoming and western South Dakota. There
is persistent WAA over our region now in advance of the system,
most focused in an axis from central IA to northwest MO, but it
is still taking some time to saturate the lower layers before pcpn
can initiate. A few stray sprinkles are not out of the question
for the remainder of this evening.
The main energy is expected to dig into western AR Thursday
morning, while driving a lead disturbance thru northern AR into
TN. These two main drivers now appear to take much of the best
WAA and broadscale lift south with them. While this does work
over our region, it will only do so briefly and then collapses to
the south. This has been picked up by the HRRR and RAP, which
significantly reduce the QPF over our region to near zero in many
areas. But one thing the HRRR and RAP are missing out on is that
there is currently strong WAA over the interface of NE/KS/MO and
this is producing rain, although the coverage on radar is worse
than what is actually hitting the ground. What all of this
appears to be saying is that the energy needed to saturate the
column sufficiently to achieve rain is going to be close to what
will actually happen and we are being given large divergences on
forecast rainfall amounts, depending on whether that threshold is
met or not. It all seemed much more achievable a model run ago. As
it stands now, the best chances for rainfall look to be northeast
MO, as the pcpn enters from the west with weakening lift, and
southeast MO which will gain benefit of the more southerly digging
main system.
Will only make minor changes to the forecast at this stage,
trimming slightly but maintaining the high PoPs in spots (only
0.01" needed), but backing off on QPF amounts.
Lots of low clouds still expected Thursday, and cool temps seem to
be the way to go with this setup and winds turning from east to
north.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2016
Hybrid clipper will begin to impact the CWA overnight tonight and
continue into the day on Thursday. System has pushed slightly to
the southwest compared to 24 hours ago. Main impacts for this
southwestward adjustment include increasing PoPs into the
categorical category as well as cooling high temperatures on
Thursday.
Expect strong warm/moist advection in conjunction with increasing
upper-level forcing for ascent to develop widespread light rain late
this evening near the MO/IA border. This are of rain should expand
southward due to a strengthening nocturnal LLJ but also advect to
the south and east as well. Precipitation for our CWA...even with a
slight adjustment of the system track to the south and west...still
appears to be all liquid rain due to temperatures above freezing at
lower levels.
As alluded to above...had to cool high temperatures for a majority
of the CWA on Thursday several degrees. Surface low on Thursday now
looks to track southwest of a KIRK>>KSTL>>KSLO line which will put
at least the northeastern 1/2 of the CWA in the cold sector of the
cyclone. A chilly...raw early March day looks on tap for most with
light rain...low clouds...and highs in the 40s. By afternoon...rain
should push off to the south and east of the CWA.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2016
Mostly quiet weather with moderating temperatures back above normal
by this upcoming weekend still looks in store.
Very unsettled weather should take hold early next week with
potentially multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Best bet
of this activity for now appears to be in the Tuesday/Tuesday night
timeframe.
Though still many days away...the pattern next week looks quite
ominous with meridional flow throughout the troposphere. This
would in turn supply much of the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley
with tons of Gulf moisture. If the baroclinic zone does not
progress much southeastward through the week...there will be more
than enough rain to cause problems across the region as round
after round of showers w/ possible embedded convection could
affect many of the same areas.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2016
Flight category conditions are expected to transition from VFR at
all sites currently to at least MVFR by late tonight into early
Thursday morning with some IFR possible. As it stands now, the
best chances for IFR remain in UIN and have kept the mention in
the 06z TAF. Elsewhere, it looks like the trend to delay the rain
a bit and have it struggle advecting eastward into the STL metro
area will probably also cause a delay with the MVFR CIGs moving
in, and as a result, have delayed in STL metro until mid to late
morning. But once these CIGs move in, they should stay for much,
if not all, the remainder of the valid TAF period. Some clearing
expected late Thursday night, but beyond the valid period for most
TAFs. Otherwise, look for easterly winds to shift northerly
during the day on Thursday, either late morning or early afternoon
at the TAF sites as an inverted TROF works thru.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
427 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIR WEATHER
LATER TODAY. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS MILD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
IR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW DECREASING COVERAGE OF LAKE
STRATOCU AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND
THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH
LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT-
GENERATED SNOW SPREADING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
FROM LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTED
BY THE INCOMING LIGHT SNOW. THE BROAD AREA OF LIFT IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR THE NC OBX BY
04/12Z.
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS TOTAL SNOW FCST AMTS AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES BASED
ON NEW 2 INCH CRITERIA AND IMPACTS RELATED TO THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. CONSENSUS BLEND OF GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODEL QPF FAVORED 1.5-3
INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THE HI RES ENSEMBLE
SSEO/NCAR OUTPUT CAME IN LOWER AT 1-2 INCHES WITH SUB-1 INCH AMTS
IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ADVY FOR
NOW AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO EXAMINE THE HRRR AND NEWER MDL
DATA...STILL WITH SUFFICIENT LEAD TIME/HEADS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS (FRIDAY AM COMMUTE). WE COULD SEE A BOOM
SCENARIO WHERE SOME PERSISTENT FGEN BANDING AND HIGHER SLR/S
AFFORD SOME LOCAL 3+ INCH AMOUNTS...WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND COULD
SEE LOWER AMOUNTS VERIFYING GIVEN LIMITED FORCING AND BEST
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING SFC/ALOFT ARRIVING BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL END PCPN EARLY FRIDAY. EARLY CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
QUICKLY FILL BACK IN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
CLIPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM MN TO NEAR CHICAGO IL BY
05/12Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLIPPER SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE EC AND GFS...ALONG
WITH THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE TROUGH....THOUGH THE GEFS BEGINS TO DIVERGE IN ANY
SOLUTION BY 12Z SUNDAY. SNOW REMAINS THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE.
A LARGE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING
DRY WARM AIR TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS THROUGH 04/06Z
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST MAR 03 2016
LINGERING -SHSN AND MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS /2-5KFT AGL/ WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT -SHSN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING WITH MOST SITES VFR.
THICKENING VFR MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS TREND LOWER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD -SN IS
FCST TO DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED IFR GROUP 00-04Z WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...-SN WITH MVFR CIGS. IMPROVING CONDS BY FRI EVE/NGT.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/RXR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
334 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE WEST...MUCH LOWER CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. MODEL
SOUNDING SUGGEST A STRATUS LAYER WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY POOR MIXING CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TODAY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A FEW TRENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE AREA THAT NEED WATCHING. FIRST...BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
RAP SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXPANDING
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR. WITH FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP AT
STORM LAKE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH FOG AND WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY
AND AREAS MENTIONED. OTHER CONCERN IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES
THROUGH IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SATURATION MAY GET DEEP ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY SATURATE THE DENDRITIC
LAYER LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS ARE DRY UPSTREAM...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON WORTHING TO SPIRIT LAKE AREA THIS MORNING.
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OUT...IF NOT RISE A DEGREE OR TWO. HAVE A
SLIGHT NON-DIURNAL CURVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
AN EXTENDED WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MEDIUM AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A MODEST
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
GENERALLY...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...AND SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. RAIN MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION FORM...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA OF SW MINNESOTA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...SIGNALING A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ON SATURDAY...BUT LINGERING SNOW MAY KEEP READINGS DOWN A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THEIR POTENTIAL LEVELS. BY SUNDAY...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PUSH READINGS THROUGH THE 50S...WITH 60S
POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. STRATUS REMAINS A CONCERN FOR SUNDAY...AND
IT MAY HAMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT IF IT DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED BY THE
GFS.
AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE US
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BRINGING AN
INCREASING RISK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE BY MONDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH LATER
ON MONDAY...AND WILL BRING AND INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST INSTABILITY LVLS
REMAIN NEAR THE MO RIVER VALLEY...AND CAPPING LAYER REMAINS IN
PLACE AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA...BUT GIVEN AMPLITUDE OF
SHEAR...COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
LOW-LVL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD IT SLOW DOWN...A LINGERING RISK FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW IA AND SW MN TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
ADVANCING TROUGH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
IF YOU ARE A FAN OF SPRING...THE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK REMAINS
WARM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 06Z TAF SET WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE...WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE
AREA APPROACHING 12Z THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS CONTINUES TO
BE LOW HOWEVER. FOR INSTANCE THE NAM AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INUNDATION OF LOW
STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PROBLEM IS...THOSE MODELS HAVE THESE CONDITIONS RIGHT
NOW AND THEY ARE NOT OCCURRING. LOOKING BACK AT THE GFS ON
TUESDAY...IT DID A BETTER JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY IN THAT IT WAS MORE OPTIMISTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY OF KEEPING THE IFR AND MVFR STRATUS AWAY
FROM THIS AREA. THEREFORE RELIED HEAVILY ON THE GFS FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND IT IS SUGGESTING MORE OF AN MVFR
ENVIRONMENT...BRINGING DOWN SOME MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THIS AREA. AGAIN...TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IS QUESTIONABLE.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1046 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN SOUTHWEST SD IS
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT THIS POINT INTO NEBRASKA. THAT WAS
EXPECTED. THE NORTHERN BRANCH IN NORTH DAKOTA IS WEAKENING AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. ALL THAT IS LEFT IS A BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES THAT IS ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. AND IT IS LIKELY MOST OF THAT IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THEREFORE ONLY SKITTISH POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND ITS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD ACTUALLY MEASURE. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW.
LASTLY...WILL ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR OUR
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
MAIN WAVE NOW APPEARS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS TO SPREAD TO THE EAST
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA BUT ALL MODELS ARE DEPICTING
PRECIPITATION BECOMING ORGANIZED EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO BE SCATTERED AND QUITE LIGHT...INCLUDING
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE BEFORE WE WERE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOLER FOR TONIGHT THAT WE WERE LOOKING
AT YESTERDAY...SO DESPITE THE VERY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND THE RESULTING MINIMAL EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SEE A VERY MINIMAL
FREEZING RAIN CHANCE WHERE COOLING IS FAST ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SOUTHWEST EARLY OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...SHOULD BE MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY BELOW A HALF INCH.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES A LOW LEVEL FLOW OF COOL AND MOIST AIR
SHOULD ASSURE A LOT OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST. THIS SHOULD DEVELOP STRONGLY LATER TONIGHT AND BE STUBBORN
ABOUT DISSIPATING THURSDAY. AM ALLOWING FOR THE START OF BREAKING UP
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT AND WARM TO THE 30S
THURSDAY...EXCEPT 40 PLUS FAR SOUTHWEST. NOT A LOT OF DIURNAL RANGE
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL SEE A WAVE APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE LOW END
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS HIGHWAY 14 INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH
SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH A VERY GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CLOUD COVER LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AND SHOULD BE MAINLY MID
TO UPPER 20S.
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT WARMING. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG MELTING DAY FOR
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 29...AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND TO 50 TO 55 INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD.
A SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE ON THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. SO
AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS MID TO UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP. TO EASTERN CWA WILL STILL HAVE
SOME SNOW TO GET RID OF SO WILL KEEP HIGHS TEMPERED BACK A BIT
THERE...BUT ALLOW FOR 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED AS RIDGING ALOFT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING MUCH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
THAN HAS BEEN SEEN FOR QUITE AWHILE ALONG WITH A SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM ABOUT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO LOWS...AND A FEW WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED
WARMING AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT BUT IF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW ENOUGH EXITING ON TUESDAY THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY SW MINNESOTA AND NW IOWA...WOULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. WHILE EVERYTHING WOULD NEED TO COME
TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT THREAT APPEARS TO BE EAST
OF THIS AREA. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL MILD FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 06Z TAF SET WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE...WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE
AREA APPROACHING 12Z THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS CONTINUES TO
BE LOW HOWEVER. FOR INSTANCE THE NAM AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INUNDATION OF LOW
STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PROBLEM IS...THOSE MODELS HAVE THESE CONDITIONS RIGHT
NOW AND THEY ARE NOT OCCURRING. LOOKING BACK AT THE GFS ON
TUESDAY...IT DID A BETTER JOB WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY IN THAT IT WAS MORE OPTIMISTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY OF KEEPING THE IFR AND MVFR STRATUS AWAY
FROM THIS AREA. THEREFORE RELIED HEAVILY ON THE GFS FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND IT IS SUGGESTING MORE OF AN MVFR
ENVIRONMENT...BRINGING DOWN SOME MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THIS AREA. AGAIN...TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IS QUESTIONABLE.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
904 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
WARM NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
FINALLY BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIRTY RIDGE
IN PLACE WITH CIRRUS IN THE PACIFIC SPILLING OVER INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. 12Z SOUNDING FROM KTWC SHOWS WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER...MEDIAN OF MORNING MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...DUE TO THE DECREASED INSOLATION.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWERED ROUGHLY ONE DEGREE THIS
MORNING. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE RECORD IN PHOENIX BUT SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT IN YUMA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VERY WARM WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE STILL FORECAST O REMAIN IN THE 576-582DM RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY...AOA THE 95TH PERCENTILE...THEN LOWER A BIT ON SATURDAY AS
THE 1ST IN THE SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE VERY HIGH
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 17-20C RANGE WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
LOWER DESERT HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80-LOW 90 RANGE TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN FALL A BIT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON
SATURDAY...THREATENING...OR EVEN BREAKING DAILY RECORDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER NOW SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN FOR
THIS PERIOD...AS THERE IS NOW GOOD-EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
TWO MAJOR SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 1ST
ONE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...IS THE
WEAKER OF THE TWO. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO
FINALLY PUSH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS NOW BRINGING
US VERY WARM WEATHER WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...ALL OF THE 3 MAIN GLOBAL MODELS DO
PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FOR MOST OF OUR CWA WILL BE TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70-LOW 80 RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND TO BRING
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS RISING INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...WITH AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE...AS A 80 KT WESTERLY JET AT 300MB MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
A SECOND...STRONG SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
OUR CWA DURING THE MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY PERIOD. THERE IS A
RATHER TIGHT SPREAD (FOR THIS FAR OUT) BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW CENTER SE-WARD ACROSS CA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK WILL BRING SOME IMPRESSIVE
DIFLUENCE/HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT TO OUR CWA...WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS -26C...MOISTURE NOW APPEARS IT WILL
BE A BIT LIMITED...WITH PWATS ONLY RISING INTO THE 0.6-0.8 INCH
RANGE AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
PINCHED OFF AS IT MOVES DOWN THE CA COAST...WITH MOST PLACES SEEING
1/3 INCH OF RAIN...OR LESS. STILL...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS/COOLING ALOFT TRIGGER SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LIMITED
FURTHER IF THE UPPER LOW LOW TRACKS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHICH
MANY OF THE OUTLYING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING AT THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL IS CONCERNED...IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF OUR CWA...WHERE A COUPLE OF
INCHES MAY FALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP CHANCES...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWER
DESERT HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60-MID 70 RANGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER TROF...WITH
HIGHS LIKELY TO REBOUND UP INTO THE UPPER 70-LOW 80 RANGE BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
VERY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MAINLY THIN BROKEN CIRRUS DECKS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT THE TAF SITES WITH SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT GRADIENTS PERSIST AND WE CAN
EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PROVIDED NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP AND A
SHARP INCREASE IN WIND IS EXPECTED AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST LOWER DESERTS
RISING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT BALLPARK ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WETTING
RAINS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERT.
THE INCREASE IN WIND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE OFFSET BY
THE INCREASING SURFACE HUMIDITY AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. OF COURSE...MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WITH HIGHS FALLING BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY OVER THE
DESERTS...WITH SOME WARMING EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS
TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
MUCH LESS WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERTS FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.CLIMATE... PHOENIX | YUMA
FCST | RECORD /YEAR/ | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/
HIGH HIGH
THU MAR 3 90 | 91 /1921 | 91 | 95 /1910
FRI MAR 4 90 | 88 /1972 | 89 | 98 /1910
SAT MAR 5 87 | 93 /1972 | 88 | 97 /1910
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
411 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS EAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY PUSHED THROUGH OUR CWA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THERE IS STILL TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN OUR EASTERN CWA DUE TO A MESO LOW
APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS.
TODAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THESE PERIODS...SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS MOVING INTO OUR CWA...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN VERY DRY ON ALL GUIDANCE...SO
DESPITE A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.
NAM/SREF ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
MOIST RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. BL/SURFACE WINDS AND PROJECTED
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR STRATUS...AND I
DECIDED AGAINST ADDING FOG MENTION.
A CHANGE I MADE DURING THIS UPDATE WAS TO TREND HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AS FRONT ALREADY APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR CWA BY 18Z AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE A BIT
MORE OPAQUE/EXTENSIVE. THIS STILL RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 70F IN OUR SOUTH TO MID 60S IN OUR NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
EXPECTATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AFTERWORD. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE LOW 70S...POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S IF FULL 850MB MIXING OCCURS.
THIS IS AROUND 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO
VERY MILD WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST).
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFTING OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT
ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES. WINDS DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST HUMIDITY LOOK TO
BE FROM THE WEST AROUND 15KTS OR SO AND POSSIBLY GUSTY...CREATING A
BORDERLINE CASE FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW/MID 50S TO LOW 60S LOOKS GOOD PER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
EXTENDED PROCEDURE GENERATED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER IN THAT AREA BUT IT LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AND
MAY BE WHY MODELS DONT GENERATE ANY MOISTURE FROM IT. WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF IT FOR NOW BUT IT DOESNT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED PROCEDURE POPULATED THE
WEDNESDAY DAY PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SAME
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AS TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...RIGHT NOW
MOISTURE DOESNT APPEAR ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS IMPACTED BY THE POPS WILL KEEP
IT IN FOR NOW. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER
50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING AS INDICATED BY
SREF/NAM...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR IT LOOKS TO REMAIN
EAST OF KMCK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS LLJ TRANSITIONS EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR
GUSTS IS CURRENTLY AT KMCK...THOUGH I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS
15-18KT AT KGLD AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDDAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW 12KT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
RH MAY DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
WEST AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN OUR SOUTH. ANY GUSTY WINDS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY AND LOWER RH VALUES IN
THE AFTERNOON...SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER IT DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY THAT 3HR CRITERIA WOULD
BE MET DUE TO MARGINAL RH VALUES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. IT
COULD BE CLOSE IN OUR FAR SOUTH IF TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER. IF
LOWER TDS ARE ABLE TO MIX SATURDAY WE COULD SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MET OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THIS TIME
MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING RH JUST ABOVE CRITERIA. THESE PERIODS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NO WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
In the wake of an upper level disturbance and associated cold
front. skies will clear out this morning with weak surface high
pressure building into western Kansas today. As the flow becomes
more zonal at mid levels across the Rockies by tonight, surface
troughing will develop in the lee of the Rockies, with a
resumption of south winds. Highs today should be in the lower to
middle 60s, with mainly lower to middle 30s tonight. Temperatures
will be held up tonight by the increasing south winds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
The mid to upper level pattern will remain fairly zonal through
Saturday across the Rockies and plains before the next upper
level trough amplifies across the Rockies Sunday and ejects into
the plains in a progressive manner by Monday. After a warm day
Friday ahead of a weak cold front with highs in the 70s, highs
Saturday should reach into the mid to upper 60s. Gulf moisture
will surge into the plains ahead of the upper level trough, but
most if not all of the shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to be off to the east in south central Kansas and points
southward from there from Sunday into Monday. Medicine Lodge and
Pratt will be on the western edge of the small precipitation
chances. After a warm day Sunday with highs in the 70s, Monday
ought to be a mild day as well ahead of the front with downslope
flow and highs in the 70s. Fire weather may be a consideration
Monday if the frontal timing is favorable and stronger southwest
winds and dry air materialize. This system will push a weak cold
front through western Kansas Monday night. Another stronger upper
level storm system is expected to move into the southwestern
United States by Tuesday and into south Texas by Wednesday, which
may be too far south for significant precipitation across western
Kansas. Nevertheless, the gridded forecast does indicated small
chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night
with small chances for showers lingering into Wednesday. Given the
weakness of the aforementioned cold front passing Monday night,
high temperatures are still expected to be in the upper 50s and
lower 60s for Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
Gusty northwest winds returning by late morning will fall back
to around 10 knots after 21z Thursday as an area of high pressure
at the surface builds south southeast across western Kansas. After
00z Friday these light winds will back to the south as the surface
high moves into Oklahoma and a trough of low pressure at the
surface develops along the lee of the Rockies. NAM BUFR soundings,
RAP and HRRR indicating VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 63 36 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 40 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 36 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 60 35 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
P28 65 33 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1000 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATE SEND TO GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS AS FLURRIES HAVE BEGUN TO FALL
IN ADRIAN WITH 3/2 MILE VSBY JUST UPSTREAM AT HILLSDALE ALREADY.
THE EARLIER TIMING CORRESPONDS WITH A NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE
EVIDENT ON WV/RADAR COMPOSITE OVERLAY. 13Z RAP CAPTURES THIS AND
SUGGESTS MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ADDITION, THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AT 1445Z IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED IN MODEL
PROGS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE, EXITING TO THE
EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY PROVIDING A BOOST
TO THE BACKGROUND FORCING FIELD AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING, ANYTHING THAT SPEEDS
UP THE MOISTENING PROCESS IS A PLUS IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
COVERAGE AND ACCUMS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST, SO TIMING REMAINS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FURTHER NORTH FROM 8 MILE. NONETHELESS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE 12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY 13Z
RAP IN A MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
NOW ADVERTISING ABOUT 3" SOUTH OF I-94 WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE
AS FAR NORTH AS I-69.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 651 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000 FT AGL WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT
FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT A HIGH AMOUNT OF VIRGA ON
ADJACENT RADARS WHICH MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ONSET TIMING
AT THE DETROIT METRO TERMINAL. REALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS IN
BOTH CIGS/VSBYS TO HOLD ON RIGHT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARM
ADVECTION WILL THEN INCREASE BY THE EVENING RUSH WHICH WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OPTIMISTIC AND SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS FNT...BUT WILL
REMOVE FROM MBS. PEAK OF THE POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE 21-03Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAS MUCH AS AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
DETROIT TERMINALS.
FOR DTW... VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS SNOW INCREASES COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ABOUT 1 INCH OF DRY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT IFR CEILING HEIGHTS WILL AT LEAST APPROACH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY 23-03Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5 KFT LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MULTIPLE WAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ALLOW THESE WAVES TO QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH WITH THE FIRST
WAVE CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP FIELD
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS EDGE AT PRESS TIME WAS DROPPING LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY EASE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS COME IN WITH A
SLOWER ONSET OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE
TRACK. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DTX ALSO SUPPORTS A LATER ONSET GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SATURATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF DETROIT
WITH 0.5-1 INCH POSSIBLE BETWEEN DETROIT AND FLINT. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
OHIO BORDER.
A BRIEF BREAK WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERHEAD ON
FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS WHERE SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WILL SEE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ONE CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIP TYPE AND HAVE INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN THE WARMER TEMPS
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THIS
SYSTEM... THE AREA IS LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ONCE IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
TAKES OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES COME TO THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING NEXT
WEEK. MODEST RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE PLAINS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. WAA ADVECTION WILL
COMMENCE AND BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...WHILE TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY HAVE BEEN...MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA.
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LARGE SURFACE
HIGH RETREATS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
454 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2016
Main concern will be timing of precipiation today.
Regional radar and water vapor is showing a vort max circulation
currently just northwest of Columbia that will continue to move
east early this morning. Light rain over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois is being generated by
low level moisture convergence as well as ascent caused by the
vort max. Expect that light rain will continue to spread across
the area this morning and then end from west to east this
afternoon as shortwave trough now back over the Central Plains
sweeps across the area. Forecast soundings and surface
temperatures from the RAP and other models continue to show that
this will be an all rain system. Temperatures will be held in
check by the rain and clouds.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2016
Have a dry forecast now through late Sunday as the GFS/ECMWF/NAM are
all tracking the system that moves across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes on Friday night and Saturday will keep precipitation
northeast of the CWA. It still appears that we will be going from
below normal temperatures on Friday to above normal temperatures
on Saturday and Sunday as the upper pattern switches from
northwesterly to southwesterly.
Both the ECWMF and the GFS are showing persisent southwesterly flow
setting up early-mid next week which will allow for plenty of moisture
to move northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Will continue the high
chance of showers and thunderstorms going beginning Sunday night
through Wednesday. Will need to watch the potential for locally
heavy rainfall with this system if the front stalls over CWA.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 419 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2016
Light rain will move eastward through our area this morning ahead
of an upper level disturbance and an inverted surface trough. The
light rain should shift east of COU by about 14Z, east of UIN by
17Z, and east of the St Louis metro area by 20Z. The cloud ceiling
will drop into the MVFR catagory by late morning. The e-sely
surface wind will back around to a nly direction by late morning
in UIN and COU and during the afternoon in the St Louis metro area
after the passage of the inverted surface trough. MVFR cigs should
rise into the VFR catagory by late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL: Light rain will move eastward into STL early
this morning, then shift east of STL during the early afternoon.
The cloud ceiling will lower in the MVFR catagory by late morning.
The ely surface wind will become sely later this morning, then
back around to a n-nwly direction by late afternoon. The MVFR cigs
should rise into the VFR catagory late tonight. The surface wind
will become light Friday morning as a surface ridge axis moves
over STL.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
340 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
THE MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR MILD WEATHER TO
TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK...AND AS YOU WILL SEE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...EVEN A 70 DEGREE HIGH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE.
A QUIETER DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS FLAT RIDGING TAKES OVER. MID
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN RESPONSE HAS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 12C. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WAS FORMING THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS CAUSED WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 45 MPH AT LIVINGSTON. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED WINDS UP FOR
LIVINGSTON BUT KEPT THEM BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FOG HAS FORMED IN BAKER THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW A MILE. EVENING CREW ADDED FOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL LEAVE IN. HRRR LIFTS FOG OUT BY LATE MORNING SO
DID MAKE THAT ADJUSTMENT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CRASH THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
SPREAD MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN THIS EVENING. AS THE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED AS
A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY WERE AVAILABLE. THE
SHORTWAVE WAS WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW THAT HAVE COME THROUGH AND
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SHORTWAVE EXISTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS REPLACED
BY A RIDGE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD AGAIN DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS
EARLY IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RIDGE AXIS TO PRODUCE LOWER 60S MOST LOCATIONS. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...CONCENTRATED ON RAISING WEEKEND TEMPS AND TWEAKING OF
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS THE SAME
HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
RAISED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE APPEARS TO
FLATTEN...GIVING WAY TO A LONG WAVE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS CHANGE MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE FLOW. IT WILL ALSO MARK THE START OF
STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH MID 50S MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THER REGION. WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE THE WORK WEEK...WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN POPS...BUT SLIGHTS
CHANCES INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AROUND KMLS AND KBHK THROUGH MID MORNING. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE REGION WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE DAY...THEN
PERSISTENT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN SNOW. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 036/062 038/070 039/067 038/056 032/052 031/056
0/B 30/U 00/U 01/U 42/W 11/B 22/W
LVM 060 034/057 036/066 040/061 033/051 029/050 031/052
2/W 41/U 01/N 12/W 42/W 12/W 22/W
HDN 061 032/062 031/071 034/069 035/059 028/054 028/058
0/B 30/U 00/U 01/U 42/W 11/B 22/W
MLS 059 034/060 031/070 034/069 036/057 029/053 028/055
0/B 30/U 00/U 00/U 33/W 21/B 21/B
4BQ 060 033/059 031/070 034/070 035/056 027/052 028/057
0/B 30/U 00/U 00/U 33/W 21/B 21/B
BHK 053 031/054 028/068 032/069 034/054 027/048 026/052
0/B 30/U 00/U 00/U 23/W 21/B 21/B
SHR 059 030/057 028/068 033/066 034/053 026/051 025/056
0/B 31/B 00/U 00/U 43/W 22/W 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
THE OAX 00Z SOUNDING WAS MOIST ABOVE H6 WITH A PWAT OF 0.49 INCHES.
THE H3 130 JET STRETCHED FROM MONTANA TO WYOMING AND COLORADO.
THERE WERE 60-80M HEIGHT FALLS OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLUSTERS OF
STORMS WERE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA WITH RAIN AND SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR
THE LOCAL AREA. AT 09Z...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN TEXAS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH AND INVERTED TROF FEATURE BACK TOWARD
ONEILL AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S AND
30S WITH NORTH WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AT 0930Z...A BAND
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SNOW MIX EXTENDED FROM PRAGUE TO SEWARD TO
FRIEND. SEWARD COUNTY SAID IT WAS ALL RAIN THERE.
TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE/GULF STATES.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. ANY LINGERING
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED RAIN/MIX SHOULD BE ON THE WANE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND THE
NORTH FLOW WOULD ADVECT THESE LOW AND MID CLOUDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND THE LONGEST IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...WITH FEWER CLOUDS TOWARD FAIRBURY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS UP IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL
BUILD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PARTS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TO 40 KNOTS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TO 15 TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPRINKLES WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS ALLOWS SOME COOLING AIR TO WORK
IN...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
MORE OF A SPRINGTIME PATTERN WITH STRONGER WINDS...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND THIS CONTINUES SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CALIFORNIA TRACKS INTO MEXICO...WITH THE TROUGH ELONGATING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO AROUND 40KTS WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD (6 TO 10DEG C DEWPOINT) WITH THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN 50S AND 60S RETURN FOR SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND
ALSO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
SURFACE WINDS LOOK STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
SOME POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S. NOT AS
WARM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...AND 50S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
ALL THREE TAF SITES HAD VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z...BUT THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST
OF THE AREA...AND IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD. THE LOW CIGS IN IOWA
MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OMAHA THIS MORNING...THEN LOOK
FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL THREE SITES MUCH OF THE DAY. RECENT RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW...DECIDED TO TREND TOWARD VFR BY
LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
207 AM PST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A WET AND COOLER
ONE WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL MORE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.
PATTERN BEGINNING TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE
CWA TODAY...FOLLOWED ANOTHER ONE EARLY SATURDAY. OVERALL STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST.
SPECIFICALLY..A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE MAIN PRECIP
BAND JUST CROSSING INTO NV. 700-600MB FGEN NUMBERS ALONG WITH
METSAT INDICATES THAT THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS HUMBOLDT
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY LATER THIS MORNING
ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...REDEVELOPING A FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GFS...RAP...AND HRRR ALL PEG THIS NARROW BAND SO
BASICALLY WENT A BLEND FOR PLACEMENT BUT LIMITED THE POP AND QPF
BELOW THEIR MEANS AS THIS BAND MAY NOT DEVELOP AS STRONG AS THEY
INDICATE. ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS COULD PICK A QUICK .10 OF PRECIP DURING
THIS BRIEF PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUNS WELL ABOVE THE VALLEYS
FLOOR SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN QUITE QUICKLY
AS IT SHIFTS MAINLY EASTWARD...SPREADING THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
OVER NORTHEASTERN NV...STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BATTLE
MTN. AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY WHERE
MORE COULD FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY
PRETTY MUCH STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH I-80 AND LOOKS TO WEAKEN...BUT
DOES PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCES TO GENERATE VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN..PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SOME SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WAVE MAY TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...STRENGTHENING IT AND FORMING A BAND OF PRECIP. CLOUD
COVER DECREASES TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM HITTING THE CA
COAST LATE FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST IN WESTERN NV LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIP IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING EASTWARD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
OFF EAST AND SOUTH OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS BOUNDARY FALLS APART.
ONCE AGAIN SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN ABOVE 7500FT OR HIGHER SO NO
TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT ALSO FROM THE OVERALL INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH A WELL DEFINE ATMOSPHERE RIVER THAT SPREADS HEAVY PRECIP INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE WINDS FOR LIKELY HEADLINES IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPS...WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN NV
TODAY...TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...STILL 50S AND
60S WILL DOMINANT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF OFF TONIGHT TO MAINLY THE
30S BEFORE CLIMBING BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S TOMORROW UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW
WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN WELL IN THE 30S TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE
EASTERN NV FALLS BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S. WITH INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A MOIST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...AND A DEFINITE CHANGE FROM RECENT MILD WEATHER. THE MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADEN TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL CONUS...BUT WILL YIELD TO A STRONG INCOMING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM ALASKA
AND PUSHING A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. NEVADA WILL BE UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
PERSISTENT MOISTENING FLOW ALOFT...SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD TO MOST
AREAS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
MUCH RAIN WILL REACH THE VALLEYS EAST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY DUE TO THE
PURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRAS. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE DROPPING
TO AROUND 7500 FEET. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD...ABOVE FREEZING ALL AROUND.
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL TAKE OFF TO THE
NORTH...SKIRTING THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTLINE...AND SPINNING
OFF A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH NEVADA. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND WIND GUSTS ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS MAY REACH
70 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST MODEL TIMING LOOKS LIKE
THIS...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WINNEMUCCA ABOUT 4
AM...FOLLOWED BY ELKO ABOUT 8 AM...THEN ELY ABOUT 10 AM. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...SNOWFALL ESTIMATES ARE FIGURED TO BE HIGHER IN CENTRAL
NEVADA...AS MUCH AS ONE FOOT ON THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES
IN THE VALLEYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES COULD FALL
IN THE VALLEYS OF WHITE PINE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES MAY START OUT IN
THE 40S EARLY IN THE DAY THEN FALL THROUGH THE 30S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY
BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEVADA THIS
MORNING AND SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VCSH IS
POSSIBLE AT KWMC THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/92/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW AND VISIBILITY IN DICKINSON HAS RISEN
TO 5 MILES ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES AT ALL OTHER SITES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
WE ADDED ISOLATED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FROM CROSBY EASTWARD TO
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE.
THAT CHANGE WAS PREDICATED BY WEAK RADAR ECHOES AROUND ROLLA WITH
FLURRIES REPORTED AT ROLLA AND ESTEVAN...AND SUBTLE HINTS OF SAID
ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FOG OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO 1/2SM AT DICKINSON.
HOWEVER...SUB-1SM TYPE OF VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD.
THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER STILL PRESENT AT THE
SURFACE PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS /AND CONFIRMED BY THE 12 UTC
OBSERVED SOUNDING AT BISMARCK/.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FOG AND CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP
MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA SOCKED IN UNDER LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE LOW STRATUS.
TONIGHT...A CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
LAYER AROUND 850MB BEING ADVECTED IN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS WARMER AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY ICE
CRYSTALS THAT FALL ALOFT. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM (DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS) SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AND DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. SOME MODELS ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY
WITH THE PASSING OF THE LOW...WHILE OTHER MODELS BRING IN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE COULD
CAUSE SOME SLICK CONDITIONS SO THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. AT THIS TIME WE DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES OR HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT ANY FURTHER THAN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER STORY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A MILD AND WINDY FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY WARM WEEKEND
AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH 15 UTC
FRIDAY MORNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ND...BUT WILL ABRUPTLY END AS
ANY PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE 32 F. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND
LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE WITH THE GFS
RUN FROM 00 UTC SIMULATING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 30 KT ON
FRIDAY. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AT ONLY
2-3 MB/3 HOURS ON THE GFS /AND LESS ON THE 00 UTC NAM/ AND PEAK
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 40 KT. THUS...WHILE A
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED...SPEEDS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA IF TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE ARE CORRECT.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND DOWNSTREAM OF A POWERFUL PACIFIC JET THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...CARVING OUT A 500-MB TROUGH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN ITS
PREDICTION OF THESE KEY FEATURES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RAISING
OUR CONFIDENCE IN A VERY WARM WEEKEND BENEATH THE RIDGING ALOFT.
IN FACT...WE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WARMER EDGE
OF THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE BREADTH OF EXPECTED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MIXING...WITH WIDESPREAD 50S AND LOWER 60S F OVER
MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND MANY 60S F LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS ELEVATING
THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES A BIT THIS WEEKEND TOO.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LEAD NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF THE THEN-
SPLITTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE PREDICTABILITY OF ITS
EVOLUTION IS LOW...SO FOR NOW WE ARE MERELY ADVERTISING CHANCE
POPS AND A COOLING TREND IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ALSO EXPECTED INTO MID MORNING
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT KDIK WITH IFR VSBYS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
WE ADDED ISOLATED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FROM CROSBY EASTWARD TO
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE.
THAT CHANGE WAS PREDICATED BY WEAK RADAR ECHOES AROUND ROLLA WITH
FLURRIES REPORTED AT ROLLA AND ESTEVAN...AND SUBTLE HINTS OF SAID
ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FOG OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO 1/2SM AT DICKINSON.
HOWEVER...SUB-1SM TYPE OF VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD.
THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER STILL PRESENT AT THE
SURFACE PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS /AND CONFIRMED BY THE 12 UTC
OBSERVED SOUNDING AT BISMARCK/.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FOG AND CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP
MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA SOCKED IN UNDER LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE LOW STRATUS.
TONIGHT...A CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
LAYER AROUND 850MB BEING ADVECTED IN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS WARMER AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY ICE
CRYSTALS THAT FALL ALOFT. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM (DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS) SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AND DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. SOME MODELS ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY
WITH THE PASSING OF THE LOW...WHILE OTHER MODELS BRING IN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE COULD
CAUSE SOME SLICK CONDITIONS SO THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. AT THIS TIME WE DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES OR HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT ANY FURTHER THAN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER STORY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A MILD AND WINDY FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY WARM WEEKEND
AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH 15 UTC
FRIDAY MORNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ND...BUT WILL ABRUPTLY END AS
ANY PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE 32 F. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND
LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE WITH THE GFS
RUN FROM 00 UTC SIMULATING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 30 KT ON
FRIDAY. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AT ONLY
2-3 MB/3 HOURS ON THE GFS /AND LESS ON THE 00 UTC NAM/ AND PEAK
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 40 KT. THUS...WHILE A
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED...SPEEDS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA IF TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE ARE CORRECT.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND DOWNSTREAM OF A POWERFUL PACIFIC JET THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...CARVING OUT A 500-MB TROUGH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN ITS
PREDICTION OF THESE KEY FEATURES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RAISING
OUR CONFIDENCE IN A VERY WARM WEEKEND BENEATH THE RIDGING ALOFT.
IN FACT...WE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WARMER EDGE
OF THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE BREADTH OF EXPECTED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MIXING...WITH WIDESPREAD 50S AND LOWER 60S F OVER
MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND MANY 60S F LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS ELEVATING
THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES A BIT THIS WEEKEND TOO.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LEAD NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF THE THEN-
SPLITTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE PREDICTABILITY OF ITS
EVOLUTION IS LOW...SO FOR NOW WE ARE MERELY ADVERTISING CHANCE
POPS AND A COOLING TREND IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ALSO EXPECTED INTO MID MORNING
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT KDIK WITH IFR VSBYS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
706 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIR WEATHER
LATER TODAY. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS MILD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW DECREASING COVERAGE OF LAKE
STRATOCU AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND THICKEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH
LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT-
GENERATED SNOW SPREADING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
FROM LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTED
BY THE INCOMING LIGHT SNOW. THE BROAD AREA OF LIFT IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR THE NC OBX BY
04/12Z.
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS TOTAL SNOW FCST AMTS AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES BASED
ON NEW 2 INCH CRITERIA AND IMPACTS RELATED TO THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. CONSENSUS BLEND OF GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODEL QPF FAVORED 1.5-3
INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THE HI RES ENSEMBLE
SSEO/NCAR OUTPUT CAME IN LOWER AT 1-2 INCHES WITH SUB-1 INCH AMTS
IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ADVY FOR
NOW AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO EXAMINE THE HRRR AND NEWER MDL
DATA...STILL WITH SUFFICIENT LEAD TIME/HEADS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS (FRIDAY AM COMMUTE). WE COULD SEE A BOOM
SCENARIO WHERE SOME PERSISTENT FGEN BANDING AND HIGHER SLR/S
AFFORD SOME LOCAL 3+ INCH AMOUNTS...WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND COULD
SEE LOWER AMOUNTS VERIFYING GIVEN LIMITED FORCING AND BEST
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LGT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE AM ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LVL
TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS IS PROGGED BY ALL MDL DATA
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA...SO SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS. ALTHOUGH MDL TIMING
OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...SOME
VERY LGT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN
ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 00Z ECENS. HAVE
CONSERVATIVELY BUMPED TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE
MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND
PLAINS TROF COULD POTENTIALLY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO NW PA TO BRING
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECENS INDICATES THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO KEEPS FRONT AND CHC OF RAIN NW OF PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03/12Z TAFS THROUGH 04/12Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST MAR 03 2016
LINGERING MVFR CIG AT JST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. INCREASING
AND THICKENING VFR MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS TREND LOWER THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD -SN AND IFR VIS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM -SN WITH MVFR CIGS. IMPROVING CONDS BY FRI EVE/NGT.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
630 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIR WEATHER
LATER TODAY. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS MILD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW DECREASING COVERAGE OF LAKE
STRATOCU AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND
THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH
LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT-
GENERATED SNOW SPREADING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
FROM LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTED
BY THE INCOMING LIGHT SNOW. THE BROAD AREA OF LIFT IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR THE NC OBX BY
04/12Z.
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS TOTAL SNOW FCST AMTS AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES BASED
ON NEW 2 INCH CRITERIA AND IMPACTS RELATED TO THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. CONSENSUS BLEND OF GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODEL QPF FAVORED 1.5-3
INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THE HI RES ENSEMBLE
SSEO/NCAR OUTPUT CAME IN LOWER AT 1-2 INCHES WITH SUB-1 INCH AMTS
IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ADVY FOR
NOW AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO EXAMINE THE HRRR AND NEWER MDL
DATA...STILL WITH SUFFICIENT LEAD TIME/HEADS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS (FRIDAY AM COMMUTE). WE COULD SEE A BOOM
SCENARIO WHERE SOME PERSISTENT FGEN BANDING AND HIGHER SLR/S
AFFORD SOME LOCAL 3+ INCH AMOUNTS...WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND COULD
SEE LOWER AMOUNTS VERIFYING GIVEN LIMITED FORCING AND BEST
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LGT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE AM ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LVL
TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS IS PROGGED BY ALL MDL DATA
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA...SO SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS. ALTHOUGH MDL TIMING
OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...SOME
VERY LGT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN
ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 00Z ECENS. HAVE
CONSERVATIVELY BUMPED TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE
MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND
PLAINS TROF COULD POTENTIALLY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO NW PA TO BRING
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECENS INDICATES THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO KEEPS FRONT AND CHC OF RAIN NW OF PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS THROUGH 04/06Z
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST MAR 03 2016
LINGERING -SHSN AND MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS /2-5KFT AGL/ WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT -SHSN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING WITH MOST SITES VFR.
THICKENING VFR MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS TREND LOWER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD -SN IS
FCST TO DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED IFR GROUP 00-04Z WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...-SN WITH MVFR CIGS. IMPROVING CONDS BY FRI EVE/NGT.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
555 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIR WEATHER
LATER TODAY. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS MILD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW DECREASING COVERAGE OF LAKE
STRATOCU AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND
THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH
LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT-
GENERATED SNOW SPREADING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
FROM LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTED
BY THE INCOMING LIGHT SNOW. THE BROAD AREA OF LIFT IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR THE NC OBX BY
04/12Z.
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS TOTAL SNOW FCST AMTS AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SUSQ COUNTIES BASED
ON NEW 2 INCH CRITERIA AND IMPACTS RELATED TO THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. CONSENSUS BLEND OF GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODEL QPF FAVORED 1.5-3
INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THE HI RES ENSEMBLE
SSEO/NCAR OUTPUT CAME IN LOWER AT 1-2 INCHES WITH SUB-1 INCH AMTS
IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ADVY FOR
NOW AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO EXAMINE THE HRRR AND NEWER MDL
DATA...STILL WITH SUFFICIENT LEAD TIME/HEADS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS (FRIDAY AM COMMUTE). WE COULD SEE A BOOM
SCENARIO WHERE SOME PERSISTENT FGEN BANDING AND HIGHER SLR/S
AFFORD SOME LOCAL 3+ INCH AMOUNTS...WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND COULD
SEE LOWER AMOUNTS VERIFYING GIVEN LIMITED FORCING AND BEST
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LGT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE AM ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LVL
TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NR CAPE HATTERAS IS PROGGED BY ALL MDL DATA
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF PA...SO SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
SOME BRIGHTENING EXPECTED BY AFTN PER MDL SOUNDINGS...AS COASTAL
LOW EXITS THE E COAST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED W/COOL
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCU.
BLEND OF LATEST SUPERBLEND AND ECME MOS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEG BLW AVG...MAINLY 35-40F.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UPON ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER. ENSEMBLE TEMP
PLUMES SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE MIN
TEMPS...ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE ROAD
FOR NOW WITH A FCST OF UTEENS NORTH TO M20S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE MDLS W/REGARD TO
STRENGTH/TIMING OF WEEKEND CLIPPER...ALL OF WHICH POINT TOWARD A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DEFINITELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. LATEST
GEFS/SREF MEAN QPF SUPPORTS A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE W MTNS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS. ALTHOUGH MDL TIMING
OF SFC LOW SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL SAT NIGHT...SOME
VERY LGT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME SAT IN WAA
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE. ABV FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND MARCH SUN
ANGLE SHOULD PRECLUDE DAYTIME ACCUMS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES BUT STILL CHILLY WX ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDE CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE IN A MARKED WARM UP NEXT WEEK...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOC SW FLOW OVR
PA DRAWS 8H TEMPS AS HIGH AS 12C BY MIDWEEK PER 00Z ECENS. HAVE
CONSERVATIVELY BUMPED TEMPS UPWARD TO ARND 70F BY WED OVR
SOUTHERN PA.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE
MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND
PLAINS TROF COULD POTENTIALLY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO NW PA TO BRING
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECENS INDICATES THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO KEEPS FRONT AND CHC OF RAIN NW OF PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS THROUGH 04/06Z
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST MAR 03 2016
LINGERING -SHSN AND MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS /2-5KFT AGL/ WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT -SHSN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING WITH MOST SITES VFR.
THICKENING VFR MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS TREND LOWER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD -SN IS
FCST TO DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED IFR GROUP 00-04Z WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...-SN WITH MVFR CIGS. IMPROVING CONDS BY FRI EVE/NGT.
SAT...VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THEN CHC OF -SN SAT NGT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
MON...VFR/NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
538 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE WEST...MUCH LOWER CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. MODEL
SOUNDING SUGGEST A STRATUS LAYER WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY POOR MIXING CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TODAY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A FEW TRENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE AREA THAT NEED WATCHING. FIRST...BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
RAP SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXPANDING
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR. WITH FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP AT
STORM LAKE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH FOG AND WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY
AND AREAS MENTIONED. OTHER CONCERN IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES
THROUGH IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SATURATION MAY GET DEEP ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY SATURATE THE DENDRITIC
LAYER LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS ARE DRY UPSTREAM...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON WORTHING TO SPIRIT LAKE AREA THIS MORNING.
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OUT...IF NOT RISE A DEGREE OR TWO. HAVE A
SLIGHT NON-DIURNAL CURVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
AN EXTENDED WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MEDIUM AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A MODEST
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
GENERALLY...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...AND SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. RAIN MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION FORM...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA OF SW MINNESOTA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...SIGNALING A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ON SATURDAY...BUT LINGERING SNOW MAY KEEP READINGS DOWN A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THEIR POTENTIAL LEVELS. BY SUNDAY...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PUSH READINGS THROUGH THE 50S...WITH 60S
POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. STRATUS REMAINS A CONCERN FOR SUNDAY...AND
IT MAY HAMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT IF IT DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED BY THE
GFS.
AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE US
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BRINGING AN
INCREASING RISK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE BY MONDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH LATER
ON MONDAY...AND WILL BRING AND INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST INSTABILITY LVLS
REMAIN NEAR THE MO RIVER VALLEY...AND CAPPING LAYER REMAINS IN
PLACE AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA...BUT GIVEN AMPLITUDE OF
SHEAR...COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
LOW-LVL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD IT SLOW DOWN...A LINGERING RISK FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW IA AND SW MN TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
ADVANCING TROUGH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
IF YOU ARE A FAN OF SPRING...THE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK REMAINS
WARM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY...LOWER CEILINGS ARE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA AND HAVE WROTE A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC SET OF TAFS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST STRATUS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO CONDITIONS LOWER
THAN IFR.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
19z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1010mb low over Arkansas, with a
trough axis extending northward into central Illinois. Light rain
continues to fall in the vicinity of the trough, but has now pushed
mainly east of the Illinois River. This feature is progged to be
located along the I-57 corridor by 00z, so am expecting some light
precip to linger across the E/SE CWA into the evening hours. As
winds become northerly on the back side of the trough, the
atmosphere will cool sufficiently to support a light rain/snow mix.
Based on latest trends and HRRR forecast, have included low chance
PoPs along/east of a Bloomington to Flora line this evening. Will
mention rain or snow north of the I-70 corridor: however, no snow
accumulation is expected. Once the trough pushes off to the east,
cloudy and cool conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
night with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s and lower
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
High pressure will move quickly across the state Friday with
partly sunny skies for the late morning and early afternoon and
slightly milder temperatures. Another storm system passing across
Wisconsin Friday night, with a trailing cold front and shortwave
passing through central IL will increase mid and high clouds and
southerly winds late in the day Friday, and bring at least a slight
chance for precipitation or drizzle overnight. There is some
question about precipitation type as temperatures will cool off to
become somewhat marginal for snow late in the night, however
precipitation should be mainly rain throughout central IL, with
perhaps a brief change to a mix of snow and rain toward the end of
precipitation Saturday morning. Even with temperatures cooling close
to freezing late in the night, moisture depth may drop off too
dramatically for anything more than liquid drizzle to form at that
point.
A trend toward warmer temperatures is then in store for Saturday
through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge shifts eastward to the
central and eastern U.S. Highs on Saturday range from 45 in
Galesburg to 55 in Lawrenceville...and are expected to increase to
the mid and upper 60s by Tuesday. Meanwhile, lows Saturday night are
expected to cool to a few degrees below freezing, but should trend
upward to the low 50s by Monday night.
A series of small waves ejecting out of a trough over the
western states will bring periodic chances for showers and some
thunderstorms through central and southeast IL for much of the
upcoming work week. Temperatures should remain mild, with highs in
the 50s or 60s through midweek, and lows generally 40s or low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
IFR ceilings have developed over the past couple of hours and will
persist through the early afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest
MVFR ceilings will return after the 20-22z time frame. Based on
radar trends and latest Rapid Refresh forecast, it appears light
snow will taper off at KPIA at 18z...with light rain ending
further east at KCMI by around 22z. As low pressure passes to the
south of Illinois, winds will gradually swing around to the north
at all terminals by early evening. Northerly winds are then
expected to continue through the night before becoming
light/variable by Friday morning. Clearing appears to be delayed
from previous forecasts, with all models suggesting MVFR ceilings
continuing through the night. Have scattered the clouds as per NAM
soundings between 14z and 16z Fri.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES AWAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
SNOW IS HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BASED THIS
FORCING WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. AS WARMER AIR HAS SLOWLY WORKED
ITS WAY NORTH...WENT RAIN/SNOW NORTH...WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING MOST AREAS.
AFTER SUNSET SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...SO WENT A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION
THERE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH.
MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME FRIDAY...BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PART OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EVENING DRY...BUT POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS BOTH SHOWING
DECENT FORCING...WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH AND LOWER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ONCE AGAIN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WILL GO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTHWEST HALF AND SNOW NORTHEAST FOR NOW. KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO JUST A FEW TENTHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. /GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG THOUGH WITH ITS FORCING
COMPARED TO OTHERS AND IS SHOWING 3 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THAT
HIGH/.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING SATURDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING DECREASES DURING THE DAY SO POPS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE USED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN DIFFERENT FORECAST METHODS INTO
TUESDAY. INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY LARGE POWERFUL SYSTEMS
RELATIVELY EASY TO PREDICT.
AS THE WEEK DRAWS ON THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BECOME MORE
DISTINCT. AT THE SAME TIME THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITHIN THE GFS PARENT
MODEL GROWS. THE DIFFERENCES ARENT HUGE BUT INVOLVE FEATURES WHOSE
PRECISE POSITION WILL BE IMPORTANT. A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
RADAR AND HRRR SUGGEST IND AND LAF WILL SEE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEAR 06Z. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER
01Z. OTHERWISE...PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT BMG AND HUF.
LAMP MOS ALSO STRONGLY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR BY 03Z
OR EARLIER BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR TOWARD 12Z AND VFR AFTER 16Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON EXACT TIMING...BUT GOOD REGARDING TRENDS.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1020 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONFLUENT FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS EAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY PUSHED THROUGH OUR CWA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THERE IS STILL TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN OUR EASTERN CWA DUE TO A MESO LOW
APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS.
TODAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THESE PERIODS...SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS MOVING INTO OUR CWA...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN VERY DRY ON ALL GUIDANCE...SO
DESPITE A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.
NAM/SREF ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
MOIST RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. BL/SURFACE WINDS AND PROJECTED
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR STRATUS...AND I
DECIDED AGAINST ADDING FOG MENTION.
A CHANGE I MADE DURING THIS UPDATE WAS TO TREND HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AS FRONT ALREADY APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR CWA BY 18Z AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE A BIT
MORE OPAQUE/EXTENSIVE. THIS STILL RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 70F IN OUR SOUTH TO MID 60S IN OUR NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING WITH DECREASING COVERAGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
EXPECTATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AFTERWORD. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE LOW 70S...POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S IF FULL 850MB MIXING OCCURS.
THIS IS AROUND 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO
VERY MILD WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST).
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFTING OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW 70S FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO LEOTI EAST...ALL DEPENDENT
ON COLD FRONT AND CLOUD ARRIVAL. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 (WEST TO EAST).
ANOTHER ITEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES. WINDS DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST HUMIDITY LOOK TO
BE FROM THE WEST AROUND 15KTS OR SO AND POSSIBLY GUSTY...CREATING A
BORDERLINE CASE FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW/MID 50S TO LOW 60S LOOKS GOOD PER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
EXTENDED PROCEDURE GENERATED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER IN THAT AREA BUT IT LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AND
MAY BE WHY MODELS DONT GENERATE ANY MOISTURE FROM IT. WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF IT FOR NOW BUT IT DOESNT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED PROCEDURE POPULATED THE
WEDNESDAY DAY PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SAME
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AS TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...RIGHT NOW
MOISTURE DOESNT APPEAR ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS IMPACTED BY THE POPS WILL KEEP
IT IN FOR NOW. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER
50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
RH MAY DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
WEST AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN OUR SOUTH. ANY GUSTY WINDS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY AND LOWER RH VALUES IN
THE AFTERNOON...SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER IT DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY THAT 3HR CRITERIA WOULD
BE MET DUE TO MARGINAL RH VALUES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. IT
COULD BE CLOSE IN OUR FAR SOUTH IF TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER. IF
LOWER TDS ARE ABLE TO MIX SATURDAY WE COULD SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MET OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THIS TIME
MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING RH JUST ABOVE CRITERIA. THESE PERIODS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NO WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN HAS BEEN STUBBORN THUS FAR...BUT STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MUCH OF THIS SNOW LOOKS TO BE OF THE
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR VARIETY...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
SLIGHTLY MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES..DTW/YIP/DET...WITH AMOUNTS
LESS FARTHER NORTH. IN-FACT...MBS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. DRIER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT
LOOK TO CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS...INTO TOMORROW.
FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT START OF 18Z TAF
PERIOD...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF
2SM SNOW LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BEFORE SNOW
ENDS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME CLEARING...BUT COLD
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON COULD PROLONG CEILINGS A BIT LONGER THAN
FORECASTED.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...MEDIUM
TONIGHT...LOW TOMORROW
* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1000 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
UPDATE...
UPDATE SEND TO GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS AS FLURRIES HAVE BEGUN TO FALL
IN ADRIAN WITH 3/2 MILE VSBY JUST UPSTREAM AT HILLSDALE ALREADY.
THE EARLIER TIMING CORRESPONDS WITH A NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE
EVIDENT ON WV/RADAR COMPOSITE OVERLAY. 13Z RAP CAPTURES THIS AND
SUGGESTS MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ADDITION, THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AT 1445Z IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED IN MODEL
PROGS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE, EXITING TO THE
EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY PROVIDING A BOOST
TO THE BACKGROUND FORCING FIELD AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING, ANYTHING THAT SPEEDS
UP THE MOISTENING PROCESS IS A PLUS IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
COVERAGE AND ACCUMS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST, SO TIMING REMAINS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FURTHER NORTH FROM 8 MILE. NONETHELESS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE 12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY 13Z
RAP IN A MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
NOW ADVERTISING ABOUT 3" SOUTH OF I-94 WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE
AS FAR NORTH AS I-69.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MULTIPLE WAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ALLOW THESE WAVES TO QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH WITH THE FIRST
WAVE CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP FIELD
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS EDGE AT PRESS TIME WAS DROPPING LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY EASE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS COME IN WITH A
SLOWER ONSET OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE
TRACK. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DTX ALSO SUPPORTS A LATER ONSET GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SATURATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF DETROIT
WITH 0.5-1 INCH POSSIBLE BETWEEN DETROIT AND FLINT. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
OHIO BORDER.
A BRIEF BREAK WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERHEAD ON
FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS WHERE SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WILL SEE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ONE CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIP TYPE AND HAVE INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN THE WARMER TEMPS
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH THIS
SYSTEM... THE AREA IS LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ONCE IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
TAKES OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES COME TO THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING NEXT
WEEK. MODEST RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE PLAINS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. WAA ADVECTION WILL
COMMENCE AND BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...WHILE TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY HAVE BEEN...MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA.
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LARGE SURFACE
HIGH RETREATS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......JVC
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1025 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE... SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL MS CURRENTLY...IN
RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING POTENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACTIVATING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING FROM THE ARKLATEX ESE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF TO OUR WEST SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP KINK SAID
BAROCLINIC ZONE...BRIEFLY HELPING TO CONGREGATE DEEP LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY A LITTLE INLAND OF THE GULF COAST. THIS ZONE SHOULD
EXTEND NORTH INTO MY SOUTHEAST ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND HERE WIND
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A NON-ZERO TORNADO POTENTIAL. LATEST HRRR RUNS BEAR OUT THIS
POTENTIAL WELL...ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BEGINS TO
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
THIS BEING SAID...THE LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PREVIOUSLY POSTED IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR OUR SE ZONES LOOKS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH WE DID UPDATE TIMING TO FOCUS MORE ON THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE ALSO INCLUDED SOME WORDING RELATED TO THE SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO IN THAT NECK-OF-THE-WOODS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CONTINUED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY OVER MS COUNTIES) AS
IMPRESSIVE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS PRESENCE
FELT. VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
IS HELPING TO INCREASE 700 TO 500 MB TEMP LAPSE RATES...DELIVERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EVEN WHERE THE SURFACE REMAINS COOL. IN MANY
AREAS THIS COMBO OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
YIELD SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN TO THE NORTH OF OUR LIMITED SVR RISK AREA IN SE MS.
FORTUNATELY...THINKING IS THAT TRULY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITED RISK WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT OF
COURSE WE WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
FINALLY...TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH A CURRENT LARGE SURFACE
TEMP GRADIENT (WARM TO CHILLY) FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
MAY TRY TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF ZONES...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS IN EAST-CENTRAL MS
AND AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE MAY SEE THE SUN SET TOO SOON TO
BENEFIT. THIS UPDATE REFLECTS THIS THINKING. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING DUE TO
LOW STRATUS. SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF
CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR (OCCASIONALLY IFR)
RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY
EARLY FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S/SE
THIS MORNING TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /DL/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...OVERALL MAIN STORY
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MOVING IN
THIS MORNING TO AFTERNOON BEFORE A QUIETER AND DRIER PERIOD IN STORE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FAST MOVING S/WV MOVING INTO SRN AR IS BRINGING A MCS INTO THE NW
DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
SOME OCCASIONAL PRECIP LOADING COULD BRING DOWN SOME QUICK GUSTY
WINDS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER JET/SFC LOW
MOVING INTO NRN TX/SRN OK. EXPECT THIS TO RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE E
TODAY AND CONTINUE TO HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE
RETURN WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE S.
OVERALL MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL REMAIN TAME DUE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME OR SO...THAT
INVERSION SHOULD BE MOSTLY MIXED OUT AND SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE ABLE TO
BE REALIZED. BASED ON HI-RES ARW AND GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WENT
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A LIMITED IN THE HWO FOR SEVERE IN THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR. ALSO THE HIGHS TODAY WENT A LITTLE ON THE COOLER SIDE DUE
TO THE INVERSION STICKING AROUND AWHILE AND OP GFS/EURO BEING MUCH
COOLER...WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
EXPECT THE ~1010MB SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT/RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND RAIN TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 03-06Z FRIDAY. AFTER
THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT NW FLOW AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD
IN AND HELP TO DRY OUT THE AREA AS PW`S FALL TO LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH DRIER PATTERN AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A NICE AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ON
FRIDAY BUT SOME NE SFC WINDS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM WARMING AS MUCH
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE S.
EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE IN THE MID 30S IN THE E TO LOW
40S IN THE WEST. /DC/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS
SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER...THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW OVER OUR CWA BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEAK DRY TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. IN ITS WAKE A 1028MB HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING A LIGHT DRY
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BACK ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN JUST EAST OF OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT OVER OUR CWA INTO MONDAY MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER
OVER OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT LAST THOUGH. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING. WAA
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL INCREASE OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY. OUR PWATS WILL
INCREASE FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS
BY TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS ANOMALOUS
PWAT IS WOULD BE A MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WIND FIELDS
WILL INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. THIS EXISTS BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS
THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. THE MAIN AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55
AND WL INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. MODELS ARE SLOW TO MOVE
THIS CLOSED LOW OUT AND BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE THE LOW
STILL OVER MEXICO THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARD
TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST OVER OUR CWA. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 66 44 64 40 / 65 16 1 1
MERIDIAN 61 41 64 37 / 82 24 1 1
VICKSBURG 71 45 65 44 / 51 10 0 1
HATTIESBURG 69 47 68 40 / 66 26 1 1
NATCHEZ 73 47 66 45 / 36 10 1 1
GREENVILLE 65 43 59 42 / 53 10 1 1
GREENWOOD 62 41 60 40 / 68 13 1 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/DL/DC/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1201 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2016
Main concern will be timing of precipiation today.
Regional radar and water vapor is showing a vort max circulation
currently just northwest of Columbia that will continue to move
east early this morning. Light rain over central and northeast
Missouri as well as west central Illinois is being generated by
low level moisture convergence as well as ascent caused by the
vort max. Expect that light rain will continue to spread across
the area this morning and then end from west to east this
afternoon as shortwave trough now back over the Central Plains
sweeps across the area. Forecast soundings and surface
temperatures from the RAP and other models continue to show that
this will be an all rain system. Temperatures will be held in
check by the rain and clouds.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2016
Have a dry forecast now through late Sunday as the GFS/ECMWF/NAM are
all tracking the system that moves across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes on Friday night and Saturday will keep precipitation
northeast of the CWA. It still appears that we will be going from
below normal temperatures on Friday to above normal temperatures
on Saturday and Sunday as the upper pattern switches from
northwesterly to southwesterly.
Both the ECWMF and the GFS are showing persisent southwesterly flow
setting up early-mid next week which will allow for plenty of moisture
to move northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Will continue the high
chance of showers and thunderstorms going beginning Sunday night
through Wednesday. Will need to watch the potential for locally
heavy rainfall with this system if the front stalls over CWA.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Mar 3 2016
A surface low pressure system was located in SW MO at midday with
an area of light rain centered from St. Louis into SE MO. The low
will move southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening with the rain persisting into early-mid afternoon for the
St. Louis area terminals. In the wake of the low pressure system,
surface winds will shift to the north-northwest and this will
bring an extensive area of stratus out of IA into the area, and
will also keep the stratus currently across eastern MO locked in.
MVFR flight conditions will be most predominate with KUIN
continuing to experiencing IFR through the afternoon. There may be
another period again of IFR towards daybreak on Friday morning.
Flight conditions should improve to VFR late morning-midday on
Friday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Light rain will persist into early-mid afternoon as a low pressure
system tracks to the southeast of the area. In the wake of the
low pressure system, surface winds will shift to the north-
northwest and this keep the stratus currently across eastern MO
locked in. MVFR flight conditions will be most predominate. Flight
conditions should improve to VFR late morning-midday on Friday.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
924 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
THE FOG IS DISSIPATING AROUND BAKER...BUT VISIBILITY IS STILL
AROUND 2 MILES...SO EXTENDED THE MENTION OF FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
OTHERWISE TWEAKED TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOK GOOD. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
THE MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR MILD WEATHER TO
TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK...AND AS YOU WILL SEE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...EVEN A 70 DEGREE HIGH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE.
A QUIETER DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS FLAT RIDGING TAKES OVER. MID
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN RESPONSE HAS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 12C. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WAS FORMING THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS CAUSED WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 45 MPH AT LIVINGSTON. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED WINDS UP FOR
LIVINGSTON BUT KEPT THEM BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FOG HAS FORMED IN BAKER THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW A MILE. EVENING CREW ADDED FOR THIS
MORNING AND WILL LEAVE IN. HRRR LIFTS FOG OUT BY LATE MORNING SO
DID MAKE THAT ADJUSTMENT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CRASH THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
SPREAD MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN THIS EVENING. AS THE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED AS
A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY WERE AVAILABLE. THE
SHORTWAVE WAS WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW THAT HAVE COME THROUGH AND
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SHORTWAVE EXISTS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS REPLACED
BY A RIDGE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD AGAIN DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS
EARLY IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RIDGE AXIS TO PRODUCE LOWER 60S MOST LOCATIONS. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...CONCENTRATED ON RAISING WEEKEND TEMPS AND TWEAKING OF
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS THE SAME
HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
RAISED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE APPEARS TO
FLATTEN...GIVING WAY TO A LONG WAVE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS CHANGE MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE FLOW. IT WILL ALSO MARK THE START OF
STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH MID 50S MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THER REGION. WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE THE WORK WEEK...WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN POPS...BUT SLIGHTS
CHANCES INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE DAY...THEN
PERSISTENT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN SNOW.
GILSTAD/CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 036/062 038/070 039/067 038/056 032/052 031/056
0/B 30/U 00/U 01/U 42/W 11/B 22/W
LVM 059 034/057 036/066 040/061 033/051 029/050 031/052
2/W 41/U 01/N 12/W 42/W 12/W 22/W
HDN 061 032/062 031/071 034/069 035/059 028/054 028/058
0/B 30/U 00/U 01/U 42/W 11/B 22/W
MLS 059 034/060 031/070 034/069 036/057 029/053 028/055
0/B 30/U 00/U 00/U 33/W 21/B 21/B
4BQ 059 033/059 031/070 034/070 035/056 027/052 028/057
0/B 30/U 00/U 00/U 33/W 21/B 21/B
BHK 053 031/054 028/068 032/069 034/054 027/048 026/052
0/B 30/U 00/U 00/U 23/W 21/B 21/B
SHR 059 030/057 028/068 033/066 034/053 026/051 025/056
0/B 31/B 00/U 00/U 43/W 22/W 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL QUICKLY NORTHEAST UP THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA IS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY AND DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST RIGHT NOW. MEANWHILE...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH WILL TRACK
ACROSS AL/GA THIS EVENING AND TO THE NC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. RAIN
IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO UPSTATE SC...THOUGH IT WILL INITIALLY GO
TOWARD SATURATED THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SET UP A HYBRID CAD
AIRMASS. LIFT REALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN AFTER 21Z AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND DEEPENING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT OVERHEAD. THE
HEAVIEST QPF WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
LIGHTER PRECIP EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT AS A
DEFORMATION BAND FORMS NORTHWEST OF THE PASSING LOW. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 32-39 RANGE.
THE ONSET OF PRECIP MAY EVERY WELL COME IN FORM OF RAIN WITH SLEET
OR PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW MIXED IN THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE WET-BULB PROFILES ARE A BIT COOLER. AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 WILL BE MUCH TOO WARM BELOW 5000 FT FOR ANY NON-
LIQUID PTYPES TONIGHT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
(AND WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1300-1310M
(H10-H85) AND SUB-1540M (H85-H7)...WHICH SUPPORTS A MIX OF PTYPES.
THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS THAT STILL REMAIN...AND LEAD US TO REFRAIN
FROM A WINTER WX ADVISORY...ARE WHETHER OR NOT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE FOR A DECENT DURATION. MODELS SHOW PRETTY
RAPID DRYING ABOVE -10C AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE THE
MIXING OF SNOW. ALSO...WETBULB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT...SO SNOW SHOULD NOT READILY
ACCUMULATE...EXCEPT MAYBE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. FINALLY...THE
LATEST HRRR HAS SHIFTED THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD TO
THE EAST...A TREND ALSO NOTED IN THE 12Z WRF-ARW.
CONCERNS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE 1)MODELS UNDERDOING PRECIP RATES
WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AND 2) DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR OVER
EAST-CENTRAL VA COULD BE TAPPED THIS EVENING AS WINDS SWING BACK TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST...CREATING LOWER WETBULB VALUES.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...CONFIDENCE IN GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR TRAVEL IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
PRECIP WILL BE EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
HE SURFACE LOW. SUBSIDENCE AND AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CLEAR
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...ALLOWING TEMPS INT HE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S...WHILE AREAS EAST OF US 1 WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS
A BIT LONGER AND MAY STAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES...THOUGH
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UPSTREAM MAY RESULT IN PATCHY STRATO CU
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EARLY. OTHERWISE...GOOD RADIATIONAL
POOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER 30S FOR LOWS.
&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM THURSDAY...
THROUGH SAT NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD SAT...SHIFTING
OFFSHORE SAT EVE/NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S WITH WEAK
WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHERLY BY SAT AFT/EVE. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE...
HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
SUN THROUGH THU: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WED AND THU RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MID-WEEK. AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE SE
U.S. AS IT DOES. THE RESULT WILL BE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
CENTRAL NC AND INCREASING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE SUN AND MON...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WITH THE
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM SUN (HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S) THROUGH THU
(HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S). FOR NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU AFT/EVE OR
LATER. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
THU AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE DELMARVA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE MID SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. KINT/KGSO/KFAY SHOULD SEE MVFR BY
00Z...AT KRDU/KRWI BY 03Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE 03-07Z
TIME FRAME. RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT KFAY...WHILE SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THE RAIN AT KGSO/KINT.
PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO NEAR THE OBX BY 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 12-
15KT AT KRWI...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AND GUSTING TO 15-18KT AS SKIES CLEAR.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...CBL/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1142 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO HOLD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REINFORCING THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION UNTIL GREATER MIXING SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW AND VISIBILITY IN DICKINSON HAS RISEN
TO 5 MILES ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES AT ALL OTHER SITES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
WE ADDED ISOLATED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST FROM CROSBY EASTWARD TO
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND RUGBY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE.
THAT CHANGE WAS PREDICATED BY WEAK RADAR ECHOES AROUND ROLLA WITH
FLURRIES REPORTED AT ROLLA AND ESTEVAN...AND SUBTLE HINTS OF SAID
ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FOG OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO 1/2SM AT DICKINSON.
HOWEVER...SUB-1SM TYPE OF VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD.
THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER STILL PRESENT AT THE
SURFACE PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS /AND CONFIRMED BY THE 12 UTC
OBSERVED SOUNDING AT BISMARCK/.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FOG AND CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP
MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA SOCKED IN UNDER LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE LOW STRATUS.
TONIGHT...A CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
LAYER AROUND 850MB BEING ADVECTED IN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS WARMER AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY ICE
CRYSTALS THAT FALL ALOFT. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM (DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS) SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AND DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. SOME MODELS ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY
WITH THE PASSING OF THE LOW...WHILE OTHER MODELS BRING IN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE COULD
CAUSE SOME SLICK CONDITIONS SO THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. AT THIS TIME WE DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES OR HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT ANY FURTHER THAN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER STORY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
A MILD AND WINDY FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY WARM WEEKEND
AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH 15 UTC
FRIDAY MORNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ND...BUT WILL ABRUPTLY END AS
ANY PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE 32 F. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND
LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE WITH THE GFS
RUN FROM 00 UTC SIMULATING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 30 KT ON
FRIDAY. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AT ONLY
2-3 MB/3 HOURS ON THE GFS /AND LESS ON THE 00 UTC NAM/ AND PEAK
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 40 KT. THUS...WHILE A
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED...SPEEDS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA IF TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE ARE CORRECT.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND DOWNSTREAM OF A POWERFUL PACIFIC JET THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...CARVING OUT A 500-MB TROUGH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN ITS
PREDICTION OF THESE KEY FEATURES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...RAISING
OUR CONFIDENCE IN A VERY WARM WEEKEND BENEATH THE RIDGING ALOFT.
IN FACT...WE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WARMER EDGE
OF THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE BREADTH OF EXPECTED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MIXING...WITH WIDESPREAD 50S AND LOWER 60S F OVER
MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND MANY 60S F LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS ELEVATING
THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES A BIT THIS WEEKEND TOO.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LEAD NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF THE THEN-
SPLITTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE PREDICTABILITY OF ITS
EVOLUTION IS LOW...SO FOR NOW WE ARE MERELY ADVERTISING CHANCE
POPS AND A COOLING TREND IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1144 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE WEST...MUCH LOWER CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. MODEL
SOUNDING SUGGEST A STRATUS LAYER WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY POOR MIXING CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TODAY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A FEW TRENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE AREA THAT NEED WATCHING. FIRST...BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
RAP SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXPANDING
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR. WITH FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP AT
STORM LAKE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH FOG AND WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY
AND AREAS MENTIONED. OTHER CONCERN IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES
THROUGH IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SATURATION MAY GET DEEP ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY SATURATE THE DENDRITIC
LAYER LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS ARE DRY UPSTREAM...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON WORTHING TO SPIRIT LAKE AREA THIS MORNING.
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OUT...IF NOT RISE A DEGREE OR TWO. HAVE A
SLIGHT NON-DIURNAL CURVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
AN EXTENDED WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MEDIUM AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A MODEST
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
GENERALLY...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...AND SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. RAIN MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION FORM...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA OF SW MINNESOTA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...SIGNALING A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ON SATURDAY...BUT LINGERING SNOW MAY KEEP READINGS DOWN A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THEIR POTENTIAL LEVELS. BY SUNDAY...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PUSH READINGS THROUGH THE 50S...WITH 60S
POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. STRATUS REMAINS A CONCERN FOR SUNDAY...AND
IT MAY HAMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT IF IT DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED BY THE
GFS.
AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE US
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BRINGING AN
INCREASING RISK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE BY MONDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH LATER
ON MONDAY...AND WILL BRING AND INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST INSTABILITY LVLS
REMAIN NEAR THE MO RIVER VALLEY...AND CAPPING LAYER REMAINS IN
PLACE AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA...BUT GIVEN AMPLITUDE OF
SHEAR...COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
LOW-LVL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD IT SLOW DOWN...A LINGERING RISK FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW IA AND SW MN TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
ADVANCING TROUGH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
IF YOU ARE A FAN OF SPRING...THE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK REMAINS
WARM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
CEILINGS 1-3K FEET...EXCEPT THRU 04/00Z CEILINGS 3-5K FEET EAST
AND NORTH OF A HON/FSD/SPW LINE. AFTER 04/00Z CEILINGS BECOMING
1-3K FEET ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET
04/06Z-16Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
351 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT...TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL COVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST THURSDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SOIL TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTING OF UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FEW OTHER FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE SNOW
AMOUNTS TOO.
AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN AND DEW POINTS
WILL COME UP. FOLLOWED THIS NON DIURNAL TREND TO ESTABLISH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORTED SNOW
FORMATION AT UPPER LEVELS BUT SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE EAST. THE EXCEPTION IS A BAND OF HIGHER QPF
POTENTIAL FROM CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA WHERE QPF WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AND THE
DEEPENING LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT SNOWFALL RATES TO OVERCOME
MELTING. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE WITH THIS OUTCOME.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVEL BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHEAST COMPONENT BEFORE THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ARE SIMILAR WITH
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THESE MODELS BRING ONE
BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA A FEW HOURS
LATER...THEN SHOWING AN AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW FROM
CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. IN GENERAL WILL FOLLOW THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY BUT NOT A WARNING. SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THE
TIMING...FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE
GETTING SNOW DURING FRIDAY MORNINGS PEAK TRAVEL TIME.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON COLD UPPER TROF AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE.
UPPER JET ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROF THEN INTENSIFIES RESULTING IN
SOME STRONGER LIFT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AND SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
MAV VALUES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE DEEPENING CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ALLOW ANY UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
TO SUBSIDE. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AS ONE MORE CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS PIN ITS
ARRIVAL WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS CONSIDERABLY WEAK
WITH JUST A 1016 MB LOW. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE KEPT IN THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS EAST OF THE CWA. THE HIGHER
RIDGETOPS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NO HEADLINES
FOR WIND WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MINIMAL
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AS IT DEPARTS OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FOR SKIES TO FINALLY CLEAR ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY...IT WILL SEEM LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE FLIPPED A SWITCH FROM
WINTER TO SPRING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ANCHOR ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 580 DAM OVERHEAD. THESE
FACTORS WILL START A NOTEWORTHY WARMING TREND. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY COULD EASILY REACH THE 60S AND 70S. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW...BUT ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. EVENTUALLY...THE WARM
FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY REACH THE MID ATLANTIC TO
SPARK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING WITH A GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN AT
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB/KROA/KLYH 20Z/3PM AND 00Z/7PM. RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN AT KDAN AROUND 00Z/7PM. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW. WITH THE SNOW...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BE IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST. SNOW
WILL END IN THE EAST AFTER 09Z/4AM BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
AT KLWB AND KBLF THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AT THOSE SITES. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>004-
018-019.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/KK