Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/02/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
242 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT....
CURRENTLY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EASILY BEING MET OVER SRN EL
PASO...ERN FREMONT...AND MOST OF PUEBLO COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS SO FAR AT
KPUB TODAY WAS 72 DEGREES...SETTING A NEW RECORD FOR MOST 70 DEGREE
OR HIGHER DAYS IN FEBRUARY...TEN. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE WARNED AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN GUST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SWRD THROUGH ERN CO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH. BY THAT TIME...RH LEVELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH SO
CURRENT TIMING OF THE RED FLAG LOOKS ON TARGET.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE CENTRAL
MTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT SHOWING
ANY PRECIP OUT OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHILE THE 18Z NAM
STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY PRECIP...IN PARTICULAR OVER KIOWA COUNTY.
WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POPS OF AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR AMOUNT
FOR THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
TOMORROW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BUT STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST OF MARCH. MARCH WILL DEFINITELY BE COMING
IN AS A LAMB...AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND THE AREA REMAINS COMPLETELY
DRY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
...POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT. ON WED A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WL BRING SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED...THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN AREAS...WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY. NOT SURE THAT ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WOULD OCCUR OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SO WL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WED WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS. RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG. THE
GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE WINDS THAN THE NAM...WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.
A WEAK UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THU...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AND LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE.
THAT UPR RIDGE THEN GETS FLATTENED THU NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. FRI THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE FROM MT AND
WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WL SEND A FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN CO
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY. ALOFT...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE REBUILDING OVR
THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY AND FRI NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
PCPN OVER THE MTN AREAS ON FRI. TEMPS ON FRI WL STILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AGAIN.
SUN AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. SOME
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD DURING
THE DAY. ON MON THE UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH PCPN STILL MAINLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVN CONCERN AT THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KPUB...THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN CO THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z. AT KCOS...WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN AROUND 06Z AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SERN CO.
THESE N WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE RELAXING
AREA-WIDE TUE AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-227-228.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1025 AM MST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST MON FEB 29 2016
MTN WAVE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE MTN WAVE ITSELF HAS BEEN TO FLATTEN OUT IMMEDIATELY HEAD OF
THE 700-500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACRS WY AND NWRN CO AT
THE PRESENT TIME. RAP AND NAM QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELD SHOW A
TRANSITION FROM NEUTRAL LIFT TO WEAK ASCENT OVER THE NRN MTNS WITH
PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL IMMEDIATELY TRAILING THE TROUGH
AXIS. THAT SAID...UPSTREAM PRECIP HAS BEEN LIMITED, CONFINED
LARGELY TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS IN SERN IDAHO/SWRN WY PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL BELIEVE ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN WITH THE FLOW ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL TURNING W-NWLY...SHOULD
SEE FORMATION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS. HOWEVER BELIEVE CURRENT HIGH COUNTRY POPS ARE
A BIT HIGH TODAY...SO WILL TO BELOW 60 PCT POPS IN MOST MTN AND
ALL VALLEY AREAS. ON THE PLAINS...SHOULD STILL SEE GUSTY WLY
WINDS SPREADING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TROUGH PASSAGE. LEE SLOPE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENHANCE CLEARING FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A PUSH OF COLD AIR RACING SWRD
THRU NERN WY IS PROGGED TO SLIP ACRS NERN CO MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY BRINGING WITH IT A BANK OF LOW CLOUDS AND
AT MINIMUM ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST OF
THE CWA...MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN STRONGER NWLY ALOFT
CLIPPING NERN CO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH COUNTRY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN WITH CLEARING
AND A REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON FEB 29 2016
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL
SWEEP ACROSS COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERALL
TROF APPEARANCE IS WEAK AND DIFFUSE WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE UPSTREAM AND MORE PREDOMINATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA. THERE IS SOME DEEPER AND LOWER
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WITH SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT APPEARS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH
OF COLORADO. STILL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH WITH
DECENT OROGRAPHICS TO PRODUCE SOME SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER ZONE 31.
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AS AIRMASS COOLS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS BECOME WELL MIXED. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO MINIMIZE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL.
STILL HERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER FAR NE
COLORADO AS JET STREAK MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROF WITH
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON FEB 29 2016
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE PUSHES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS. THOUGH THEY
COULD BE COOLER AROUND THE METRO AREA IF THE WINDS ANTICYCLONIC
WITH LIGHT SPEEDS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THE COOLER SOLUTION
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S WHEREAS OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE AREA
IN THE 50S. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH A 140KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE PUSHING OVER
COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS INTO KANSAS WILL BRING STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE STRONGEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. DEPENDING ON HOW DRY IT GETS...WEDNESDAY COULD
HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT PUSHES
OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GETS DOWNSLOPED.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THEY WILL
LIKELY STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE...SO HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM THE QUICK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. A FEW
WEAK RIPPLES PROGGED BY THE MODELS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST MON FEB 29 2016
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS HOUR
WITHIN THE DENVER METRO AREA. BUT THAT WON`T LAST MUCH LONGER AS
WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY W-NWLY AND GUSTY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AS THE DOWNSLOPE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH THRU ERN
WY. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE BASE THE BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS SUCH AS AT KBJC WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30KTS FOR A TIME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS STG/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW REACHING KAPA AND KDEN WITH OCNL GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 30 KTS.
VFR CIGS AND NO PRECIP TODAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
522 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SWEEPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE REPLACED BY A COLDER MORE SEASONABLE ONE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER...STRONGER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MILD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS REGION AS WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM`S LOW
WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE UNITED STATES-CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING SWEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SHOWERS. LOOKING AT A DRY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER WILL HAVE BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
RANGING FROM THE AROUND 30 DEGREES INTO UPPER 40S. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY DEPENDENT IS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM AND DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED. WHILE IN OTHER
AREAS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WHICH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UP. STARTED WITH OBSERVATIONAL TEMPERATURES AND BLENDED THAT INTO
GUIDANCE TO CREATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. WILL HAVE
QUITE THE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING SO READINGS WILL FALL MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH A MORE DIURNAL CURVE
OF TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MOVING THE MID WEEK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
REINFORCING THE COLDER MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO MAINLY THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
PARALLELS THE BOUNDARY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS A SHORT WAVE REINFORCES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA CAUSING THE
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK...ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN IT WILL
CONTINUE ON MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.
INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TUESDAY EVENING HOWEVER AS THE
LOW APPROACHES THE TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE THEN RISE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW. HOWEVER AS WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT A WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE SNOW SHOULD DOMINATE.
OVERALL LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANY CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON P-TYPES AND QPF AMOUNTS.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN
ON BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WOULD EXPECT LINGERING RAIN
TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A MEAN
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT...A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -23C RANGE.
THESE H850 TEMPS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS COLDER THAN NORMAL ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z GEFS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THU MORNING ACROSS THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/WRN DACKS...BUT OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE RIDGING IN FROM S/SW ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH COLD
AND DRY WX. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO M20S NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION TO U20S TO M30S MAINLY FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL INTO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-
90 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS VARIABLE
ON HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FCST FRI. THE TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED TO SEE IF HIGHER POPS
ARE NEEDED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH WITH ZERO
TO 5 BELOW READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ON FRI BASED
ON A SUPERBLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PACK TO L30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END FRI NIGHT...AND
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH W/NW FLOW
PERSISTING ALOFT. ANOTHER CYCLONE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER OPENS THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS FRI NIGHT...AND MID 20S TO M30S ON SATURDAY.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN
CONUS WITH THE UPSTREAM SFC CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE.
THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE DISTURBANCE TOO FAR
TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE. SLIGHT CHC
POPS WERE USED FOR NOW FOR A BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPS CONTINUE THE TREND UPWARD TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
OVERALL...TEMPS AND PCPN LOOKS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRIOR TO NOONTIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU BTWN 13Z-17Z WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH
LINGERING BKN CIGS IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS INITIALLY...WITH JUST A FEW-
SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS AROUND. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT FRONT AND WEAK SFC
WAVE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT AT KGFL/KPOU WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS. THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS ARE AROUND 40
KTS...SO LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 13Z FOR THOSE TWO SITES. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE S TO SW AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF UNTIL THE LATE MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO W TO NW AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS AT
KALB IN THE EARLY TO MID PM...BEFORE BECOMING W TO SW AT 5-12 KT
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BASED IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW
DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...INITIALLY MAINLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
459 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SWEEPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE REPLACED BY A COLDER MORE SEASONABLE ONE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER...STRONGER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MILD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS REGION AS WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM`S LOW
WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE UNITED STATES-CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING SWEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SHOWERS. LOOKING AT A DRY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER WILL HAVE BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
RANGING FROM THE AROUND 30 DEGREES INTO UPPER 40S. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY DEPENDENT IS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM AND DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED. WHILE IN OTHER
AREAS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WHICH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UP. STARTED WITH OBSERVATIONAL TEMPERATURES AND BLENDED THAT INTO
GUIDANCE TO CREATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. WILL HAVE
QUITE THE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING SO READINGS WILL FALL MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH A MORE DIURNAL CURVE
OF TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MOVING THE MID WEEK
LOW PRESSURE FROM OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MORE TO
COME.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A MEAN
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT...A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -23C RANGE.
THESE H850 TEMPS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS COLDER THAN NORMAL ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z GEFS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THU MORNING ACROSS THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/WRN DACKS...BUT OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE RIDGING IN FROM S/SW ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH COLD
AND DRY WX. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO M20S NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION TO U20S TO M30S MAINLY FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL INTO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-
90 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS VARIABLE
ON HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FCST FRI. THE TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED TO SEE IF HIGHER POPS
ARE NEEDED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH WITH ZERO
TO 5 BELOW READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ON FRI BASED
ON A SUPERBLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PACK TO L30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END FRI NIGHT...AND
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH W/NW FLOW
PERSISTING ALOFT. ANOTHER CYCLONE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER OPENS THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS FRI NIGHT...AND MID 20S TO M30S ON SATURDAY.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN
CONUS WITH THE UPSTREAM SFC CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE.
THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE DISTURBANCE TOO FAR
TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE. SLIGHT CHC
POPS WERE USED FOR NOW FOR A BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPS CONTINUE THE TREND UPWARD TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
OVERALL...TEMPS AND PCPN LOOKS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRIOR TO NOONTIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU BTWN 13Z-17Z WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH
LINGERING BKN CIGS IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS INITIALLY...WITH JUST A FEW-
SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS AROUND. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT FRONT AND WEAK SFC
WAVE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT AT KGFL/KPOU WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS. THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS ARE AROUND 40
KTS...SO LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 13Z FOR THOSE TWO SITES. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE S TO SW AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF UNTIL THE LATE MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO W TO NW AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS AT
KALB IN THE EARLY TO MID PM...BEFORE BECOMING W TO SW AT 5-12 KT
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BASED IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW
DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...INITIALLY MAINLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
643 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFYING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONUS THIS
EVENING...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. AHEAD OF AND ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SURGING ENERGY ALOFT...WE FIND A SURFACE LOW LIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
BREAKING OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS MS/AL/GA/TN VALLEY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE..BUT FORTUNATELY FOR OUR
AREA...THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER OVER THESE STATES TO OUR
NORTH TO SUPPORT THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL NOT DROP SOUTH TO OUR AREA.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE REGION ALL DAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LARGE SCALE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS WE ENTER THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS WE
GET DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT...AND THE FRONT GET CLOSER...THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT...DESTINED FOR OUR AREA...WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. ALL THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHIFTS TO THE
CAROLINA COAST STAYING NORTH OF OUR ZONES. WITH THE LACK OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...WEAKENING FOCUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL BE
TOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FORECAST WILL SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES REACHING LEVY COUNTY
TOWARD DAWN...AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH
OF I-4 WILL NOT EVEN SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP. SOUTH OF I-4...IT IS
BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT THE SPRINKLES BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THESE
ZONES MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO IS SHOWN
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE LATEST ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE. OVERALL THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BE
PERCEIVED THROUGH MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND A PASSING BAND OF CLOUDS.
WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...HOLDING IN AT LEAST THE 50S FOR ALL
AREAS...AND LIKELY NOT DROP OUT OF THE 60S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COASTS OF PINELLAS/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
SUNCOAST. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY REACH THE MID 70S NORTH AND
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND.
ENJOY AND HAVE A GREAT EVENING...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BAND OF BKN VFR
CIGS INTO KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF SHOWER. AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
KLAL TO KPGD AND DOWN TO KRSW. CURRENT TAF WILL SHOW MVFR
VIS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND
KPGD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WINDS OR SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 62 76 55 74 / 0 10 0 0
FMY 60 81 59 81 / 0 10 0 0
GIF 59 80 55 79 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 60 75 54 73 / 0 10 0 0
BKV 56 76 46 77 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 63 75 59 75 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...
CONTINUING QUIET WX PATTERN AS A SHORT WAVE TROF OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD KEEPS A WEAK H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER CENTRAL
FL. DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS LIGHT S/SW SFC/LOW
LVL FLOW TAPS AN AIRMASS WITH MEAN H100-H85 RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT.
PWATS INCRSG TO BTWN 0.75"-1.00". HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THRU THE H85-
H70 LYR. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
ARE AOB 3.0C/KM THRU H85-H70 WITH NO PROSPECT OF BEING SCOURED OUT
UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.
WITH VERTICAL MOTION CAPPED WELL BLO 10KFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MID LVL VORTICITY/OMEGA LIFT OR UPR LVL DIVERGENCE...A THIN MARINE
STRATOCU DECK AND UPR LVL CI/CS DECK IS ABOUT ALL THAT WILL DVLP. NO
PRECIP ANTICIPATED. SFC DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE L/M50S
OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS ON THE SAME ORDER. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL BE A FEW
DEG ABV AVG AS LIGHT SRLY FLOW GENERATES WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS
IN THE M/U70S ALONG THE COAST AND U70S/L80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
WED...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A WEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW AROUND 10 PERCENT. TURNING
COOLER WED NIGHT WITH A NORTH WIND AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
FAR NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER 60S MARTIN
COAST.
THU-SUN (PREVIOUS)...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. WILL VEER LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE INTO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NRN GULF COAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS JUST NORTH
OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY
FRIDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL AGAIN LEAD TO LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH THIS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BE WEAK. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 01/18Z
SFC WINDS: N OF KISM-KTIX...THRU 01/00Z E/SE 4-7KTS XCPT W/SW AT
KLEE...BTWN 01/00Z-01/03Z BCMG LGT/VRBL AOB 3KTS...AFT 01/15Z S/SE 5-
8KTS. S OF KISM-KTIX THRU 01/00Z E/SE 7-10KTS...BTWN 01/00Z-
01/03ZBCMG S/SE AOB 3KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: PREVAILING CIGS AOA FL120...E OF KMLB-KOBE THRU
01/00Z AREAS CIGS BTWN FL040-060. BTWN 01/07Z-01/13Z...W OF KTIX-
KOBE AREAS MVFR VSBYS IN BR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS CONTINUE AS A HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE NE FL COAST AND MAINTAINS A WEAK PGRAD OVERHEAD.
LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SWD...N OF THE CAPE
A LIGHT W/SW BREEZE OVERNIGHT BCMG S/SE BY MIDDAY MON AS A SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION SETS UP. SEAS AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE GULF STREAM
OVERNIGHT. DOMINANT PDS BTWN 6-8SEC.
WED-SAT...FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS WED AFTN/EVE. A NORTH WIND
SURGE AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRODUCE POOR
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THU THEN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND PRODUCE
A QUICK RETURN OF MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUE...WEAK PGRAD AS A HI PRES RIDGE REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL PREVAIL...VARYING
FROM S/SE FROM LAKE GEORGE/OKEECHOBEE EWD...S/SW FROM THE LAKES WRD.
THE PREVAILING SRLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THE DRY
AIRMASS OVERHEAD...ALLOWING MIN RH VALUES TO REMAIN AOA 35PCT.
GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION DESPITE THE WEAK TRANSPORT FLOW AS WARMING
SFC TEMPS GENERATE MIXING HEIGHTS ARND 5KFT.
WED-FRI...FRONTAL PASSAGES ON WED AND FRI MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 55 78 60 78 / 0 10 10 20
MCO 56 82 61 81 / 0 0 10 20
MLB 57 77 62 80 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 57 77 60 82 / 0 10 10 20
LEE 55 81 60 80 / 0 0 10 20
SFB 56 81 60 80 / 0 0 10 20
ORL 57 82 61 81 / 0 0 10 20
FPR 57 77 60 82 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MARCH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND
NORTHERN CSRA. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS LINE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA MOVING
EASTWARD AROUND 45 MPH. MUCH OF THIS LINE WILL CROSS THE CSRA AND
POSSIBLY THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH 2AM. THESE CELLS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN THE CSRA...AS A RESULT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35 HAS BEEN ISSUES BY SPC VALID THROUGH 2AM FOR
THE CSRA.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...CROSSING THE COLUMBIA AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND BE MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 40 MPH. RAINFALL GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CLOUDS
AND MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
WEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ALL
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WITH
TRANSITIONAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S UNDER FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE
AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LESS THAN THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH BUT THERE IS
BETTER FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION OPPORTUNITY...ALTHOUGH
STILL NOT SIGNIFICANT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE DURING THE
22Z-08Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND DIFFICULT TO TIME
SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE NAM AND GFS MOS WITH MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN
EXCEPTION WILL OCCUR IN A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS. USED RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF THIS BAND. EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. A 50-KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE OF THE THE LOW-LEVEL JET
TONIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING 08Z TO
11Z. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT AND USED THE GFS AND NAM
MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
959 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM
DAY TODAY IN THE 70S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS
FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CENTRAL GA INTO ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 40 KNOTS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA AROUND 10PM AND THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL QUICKLY RISE AND
FALL WITH FROPA WITH MAX VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES. HAVE TIGHTENED
POP GRADIENT WITH FROPA AS MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS NARROW AND DRIER
AIR RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK WITH CURRENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING HAVE
REMAINED WITH SLIGHTLY CHANCE THUNDER...WITH BEST CHANCE FROM
CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH CSRA. RAINFALL GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AND HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CLOUDS AND MIXING
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO
THE MID 50S IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ALL
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WITH
TRANSITIONAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S UNDER FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE
AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LESS THAN THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH BUT THERE IS
BETTER FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION OPPORTUNITY...ALTHOUGH
STILL NOT SIGNIFICANT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE DURING THE
22Z-08Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND DIFFICULT TO TIME
SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE NAM AND GFS MOS WITH MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN
EXCEPTION WILL OCCUR IN A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS. USED RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF THIS BAND. EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. A 50-KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE OF THE THE LOW-LEVEL JET
TONIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING 08Z TO
11Z. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT AND USED THE GFS AND NAM
MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
908 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
02/02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS
WEAK WITH THE 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM REMAINING PINNED TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...SO DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF
A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...THE PROSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
STILL LOOKS LOW. THE FRONT IS ON TARGET TO PASS OFFSHORE JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE AND ITS ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTS WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A ROUGHLY 25-35 MILE WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT THE VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS STILL INDICATE THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND...
PART OF THE REMNANTS OF THE QLCS MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA THIS
EVENING...WILL BE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AT IT PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
MILLEN-HILLTONIA-ALLENDALE CORRIDOR WITH 30-40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES... ESPECIALLY INLAND.
THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LOW...BUT THE LATEST RAP INSTABILITY PROGS
DO SHOW A SLIVER OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A RUMBLE OR TWO GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE CORRIDOR
FROM MILLEN-ALLENDALE TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST LOOKS
REASONABLE... ALTHOUGH HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ATYPICAL GIVEN
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE 40-45 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
* MADE MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE EXPECTED LINE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SPEED UP THE TIMING BY ABOUT 1 HOUR PER KFFC
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS.
* INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS AND
SCREVEN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARAMETERS REMAIN OVERALL UNIMPRESSIVE. LEFT
BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND CLEARING SKIES. DESPITE
THE COLD FRONT`S BEST EFFORTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S...APPROACHING 70 NEAREST THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER TERMINUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S NEAREST THE COAST AND
UPPER 30S INLAND. VERY LIGHT WINDS INLAND...POTENTIALLY CALM...AND
SMALL SCALE VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT COULD POTENTIALLY
LEAD TO PATCHES OF FROST AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
PROPER CONDITIONS DO MATERIALIZE...SUSPECT THAT ZONES NEEDING AN
ADVISORY WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON AT THE SURFACE BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT
TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S IN OUR SOUTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50
NEAR THE COAST.
A QUICK CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
STEADILY DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID 60S FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE A ABOUT A 2 HOURS WINDOW EITHER SIDE OF
11Z FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER PARAMETER IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
DISSIPATE OR ONLY REDUCE VSBYS NO LOWER THAN 6SM AT WORST IN ANY
LIGHT RAIN THAT COULD FALL. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 04Z UNTIL FROPA AROUND 11Z.
WINDS AT 1500-2000 FT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITIES OF BRIEF CEILING
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS LOW-
LEVEL JETTING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MIXING PROFILES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL...EXCEPT OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WERE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...MAX WINDS LOOK TO AVERAGE 15 KT OR SO WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD...2-5 FT FROM EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH WITH 4-6 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE TWO ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN ZONES 350/374 WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
BRIEF WINDOW OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS
FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
317 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Latest surface map shows the cold front has dropped into northern
Illinois, from the north side of the Chicago metro to near Moline,
then westward into southern Nebraska. Main effect so far has been
extensive mid and high clouds north of the boundary, with scattered
clouds to the south. Temperatures at 2 pm over our forecast area
range from the mid 50s near the Indiana border, to the lower 60s
across most areas from highway 51 westward.
High-resolution model guidance brings the front to about a Macomb-
Bloomington-Hoopeston line by mid to late evening, where it should
hang up while low pressure tracks across northern Missouri
overnight. Have maintained some chance PoP`s late evening west of
the Illinois River, but am thinking most of the activity in our area
will be moving out of west central Illinois after midnight as a
substantial dry layer will be moistened from the top down. North of
the front, forecast soundings mostly above freezing in the lower
layers, with main threat for any freezing rain or sleet before
sunrise across the extreme northern CWA toward Toulon and Lacon.
South of the front, have introduced some mention of isolated
thunderstorms late tonight from about Taylorville to Effingham and
Flora, as MUCAPE`s off the RAP model indicate some modest
instability of a few hundred J/kg.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
There is relative agreement in the models on tracking the surface
low across Illinois roughly between I-70 and I-72. They also agree
that the low will move into Indiana by 18z/Noon on Tuesday, with the
Canadian the slowest, having the low center barely past the border
with Indiana at 18z. The very fast speed of movement will limit the
potential for snow, sleet and/or ice accumulation across our
counties, as precip will be diminishing or ending as the cold air
pushes farther southeast across our forecast area Tues afternoon.
Our areas north of I-74 will have the best potential to see few
tenths of an inch of snow or sleet accumulation, with the best
chances being from Galesburg to Lacon where the coldest air will
reside most of the day. Freezing rain potential will be mainly
between Galesburg and Lacon as well, as that area will most likely
not rise much above freezing if at all during the day on Tuesday.
As far as thunderstorms are concerned, we see some MUCAPE values of
100-200 J/Kg south of the track of the low, so we included a chance
of storms south of I-70 in the first half of the morning. Even in
the areas that see all rain, QPF amounts will struggle to climb
above 0.10" south of I-74. Any locations that see a thunderstorm
could climb up to a quarter inch.
Lingering light rain or snow will end by Tuesday evening for the
most part. Areas along the Indiana border could see trace amounts
of precip linger into the evening. Otherwise, northwest winds
gusting to 25 mph will usher in a colder airmass, as lows dip into
the teens north of I-74 and into the mid 20s south of I-70.
A brief period of high pressure on Wednesday will provide dry
conditions with slightly below normal highs in the upper 30s to low
40s.
The next wave of wintry weather will develop Wed evening in a warm
air advection regime. A warm frontal circulation is expected to
develop across IL by midnight, with frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer driving precip overnight. Then, low pressure is expected to
pass across southern IL, keeping a period of prolonged lift north of
the low in the TROWAL. The extended period of snow could help push
snow accums by Thursday afternoon into the 2 to 3 inch range north
of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Paris. Some rain could diminish
snow amounts just south of that line.
Precip will end Thursday night as high pressure builds into
Illinois. Friday will remain dry as well before yet another low
pressure system pushes across the area, this time across northern
Illinois. We kept slight chances of rain or snow for Friday night
N of I-74 and in most areas on Saturday. Beyond that, a warming
trend should develop, with dry conditions through the weekend and
into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Main forecast concerns begin this evening, as a cold front drops
southward and becomes stationary for a time. Latest guidance
suggesting it will pass through KPIA/KBMI with winds shifting to
the east-northeast early this evening. The wind shift further
south from KSPI-KCMI is less certain, and will keep winds
southerly there until low pressure moves in toward sunrise. VFR
ceilings are expected initially as much of the lower levels has
dry air in place, but a rapid drop of ceilings down to around 1500
feet is expected between 08-11Z as the low passes through.
Forecast soundings suggest precipitation with the low and trailing
front will be in the form of rain into Tuesday morning. Once the
low passes, winds will shift to the north-northwest and become
gusty Tuesday morning. A lot of the precipitation should be east
of the TAF sites at that point, and have mentioned VCSH late
morning at all locations except KCMI, with a mention of -RASN.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Latest surface map shows the cold front has dropped into northern
Illinois, from the north side of the Chicago metro to near Moline,
then westward into southern Nebraska. Main effect so far has been
extensive mid and high clouds north of the boundary, with scattered
clouds to the south. Temperatures at 2 pm over our forecast area
range from the mid 50s near the Indiana border, to the lower 60s
across most areas from highway 51 westward.
High-resolution model guidance brings the front to about a Macomb-
Bloomington-Hoopeston line by mid to late evening, where it should
hang up while low pressure tracks across northern Missouri
overnight. Have maintained some chance PoP`s late evening west of
the Illinois River, but am thinking most of the activity in our area
will be moving out of west central Illinois after midnight as a
substantial dry layer will be moistened from the top down. North of
the front, forecast soundings mostly above freezing in the lower
layers, with main threat for any freezing rain or sleet before
sunrise across the extreme northern CWA toward Toulon and Lacon.
South of the front, have introduced some mention of isolated
thunderstorms late tonight from about Taylorville to Effingham and
Flora, as MUCAPE`s off the RAP model indicate some modest
instability of a few hundred J/kg.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
There is relative agreement in the models on tracking the surface
low across Illinois roughly between I-70 and I-72. They also agree
that the low will move into Indiana by 18z/Noon on Tuesday, with the
Canadian the slowest, having the low center barely past the border
with Indiana at 18z. The very fast speed of movement will limit the
potential for snow, sleet and/or ice accumulation across our
counties, as precip will be diminishing or ending as the cold air
pushes farther southeast across our forecast area Tues afternoon.
Our areas north of I-74 will have the best potential to see few
tenths of an inch of snow or sleet accumulation, with the best
chances being from Galesburg to Lacon where the coldest air will
reside most of the day. Freezing rain potential will be mainly
between Galesburg and Lacon as well, as that area will most likely
not rise much above freezing if at all during the day on Tuesday.
As far as thunderstorms are concerned, we see some MUCAPE values of
100-200 J/Kg south of the track of the low, so we included a chance
of storms south of I-70 in the first half of the morning. Even in
the areas that see all rain, QPF amounts will struggle to climb
above 0.10" in most areas south of I-74. Any areas that see a
thunderstorm could climb up to a quarter inch.
Any lingering light rain or snow will end by Tuesday evening for the
most part. Areas along the Indiana border could see trace amounts of
precip linger into the evening. Otherwise, northwest winds gusting
to 25 mph will usher in a colder airmass, as lows dip into the
teens north of I-74 and into the mid 20s south of I-70.
A brief period of high pressure on Wednesday will provide dry
conditions with slightly below normal highs in the upper 30s to low
40s.
The next wave of wintry weather will develop Wed evening in a warm
air advection regime. A warm frontal circulation is expected to
develop across IL by midnight, with frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer driving precip overnight. Then, low pressure is expected to
pass across southern IL, keeping a period of prolonged lift north of
the low in the TROWAL. The extended period of snow could help push
snow accums by Thursday afternoon into the 2 to 3 inch range north
of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Paris. Some rain could diminish
snow amounts just south of that line.
Precip will end Thursday night as high pressure builds into
Illinois. Friday will remain dry as well before yet another low
pressure system pushes across the area, this time across northern
Illinois. The kept slight chances of rain or snow for Friday night N
of I-74 and in most areas on Saturday. Beyond that, a warming trend
should develop, with dry conditions through the weekend and into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Main forecast concerns begin this evening, as a cold front drops
southward and becomes stationary for a time. Latest guidance
suggesting it will pass through KPIA/KBMI with winds shifting to
the east-northeast early this evening. The wind shift further
south from KSPI-KCMI is less certain, and will keep winds
southerly there until low pressure moves in toward sunrise. VFR
ceilings are expected initially as much of the lower levels has
dry air in place, but a rapid drop of ceilings down to around 1500
feet is expected between 08-11Z as the low passes through.
Forecast soundings suggest precipitation with the low and trailing
front will be in the form of rain into Tuesday morning. Once the
low passes, winds will shift to the north-northwest and become
gusty Tuesday morning. A lot of the precipitation should be east
of the TAF sites at that point, and have mentioned VCSH late
morning at all locations except KCMI, with a mention of -RASN.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. AN EXTREMELY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IS IN PLACE FROM THE LOCAL AREA TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH 850 MB TEMP ON 12Z RAOB RANGING FROM +2
CELSIUS AT ILX TO -25 CELSIUS AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MAKING QUICK HEADWAY SOUTHWARD AND HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WISCONSIN DELLS AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
REGIONAL RADAR OVER NORTHERN IOWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING 925 MB FGEN. THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT REMAINS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE 850 MB FRONT GETS BEFORE WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE PLAINS OCCURS. THIS WILL DICTATE
PLACEMENT OF WHAT WILL BECOME A NARROW AND INTENSE 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STEEP LAPSE
RATES...NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THE FGEN AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
ALSO ARGUE FOR HEAVY PRECIP RATES. GUIDANCE VARIES FROM FARTHER
NORTH 12KM NAM AND NMM TO LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF MODEL FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE FGEN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...SUSPECT THAT QPF VALUES COULD BE A BIT
UNDERDONE IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WHERE THE BAND SETS UP.
CONCEPTUALLY...THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR A VERY INTENSE BAND
OF PRECIP AND A SHARP CUTOFF SOUTH OF IT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LOWER LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURS THIS
EVENING...PRECIP COULD BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 925 MB FGEN
WITH POSSIBLE PTYPE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONCE 850 MB FGEN BAND
BECOMES DOMINANT...SUSPECT THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF A HEAVY SNOW OR
SO SCENARIO WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SLEET SOUTH OF THE BAND AS
925 MB LEVEL GETS QUITE COLD. BECOMING LESS CONCERNED OVERALL WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FOR REASONS ABOVE AND ALSO VERY WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES MENTIONED IN THE WSW PRODUCT FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
APPEAR TO BE EASILY ATTAINABLE GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY PRECIP BAND
OVERNIGHT. I`M WORRIED 6"+ AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE THAN
ISOLATED. ALSO CONCERNED THAT FGEN BAND COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF I-88 CURRENTLY IN ADVISORY
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO INCLUDE THEM IN WARNING. IF HEAVY
SNOW BAND DOES INDEED END UP CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR POINTS
SOUTH INCLUDING CHICAGO FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE
ROUGHLY THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE AS NEXT STRONG
MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING FAIRLY STRONG
FGEN AS DEFORMATION AXIS FORMS ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MAKE A DECISION
ON ANY HEADLINE CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
309 AM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY...
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF IL
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BY MID-MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW WARM TEMPS
BECOME...THEN FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL THEN BLEED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WELL MIXED LAYER LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST HI-RES SOLUTIONS NUDGE THE THERMAL RIDGE BACK
NORTH BY MIDDAY...AND PROG TEMPS APPROACHING THE MID/UPR 50S BY
EARLY AFTN. SIMULTANEOUSLY AS THE TEMPS WARM INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN IL...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH
AND NEARING MILWAUKEE BY 19-20Z AND LIKELY REACH FAR NORTHEAST IL BY
21-22Z. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL CLOSER
TO 23Z...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING STRATUS LAYER SOUTH AND
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST UPON PASSAGE. SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR TWO...AND GIVEN THE WARMTH PRECEEDING THE FROPA...TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS MORE OF A
DRY BOUNDARY WITH LOW CLOUDS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM FOCUSED IN FAR NORTHERN IL
AND SOUTHERN WI. GUIDANCE HAS DEMONSTRATED SOME DEGREE OF
CONSISTENCY WITH A INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE
STATELINE AND SOUTHERN WISC. LOCAL ARW-WRF GUIDANCE IS DEMONSTRATING
THIS WELL...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG AS THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE 850MB LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN IOWA BETWEEN 3-6Z TUE...WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED OVER A ROCKFORD TO WAUKEGAN LINE AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHARPENS AHEAD OF THE 850MB
LOW...WHICH PLACES THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS INTO THE PRIME
FGEN BANDED REGION. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME CONCERN WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS EVENT MAINLY WITH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WHICH MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SATURATED AND PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE TOO ELEVATED. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH LOWER SNOW
TOTALS...BUT COULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
TOWARDS A SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN. QPF REMAINS TIGHTLY FOCUSED
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN IL...AND BASED ON SNOW RATIOS AT
THE ONSET OF 8:1 TO 10:1...ACCUMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE UNTIL AFT
9Z TUE WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE REACHES THE DGZ AND OMEGA/LIFT
MAXIMIZES. THUS THERE WOULD BE SNOW RATES WITHIN THE 6-12Z TUE
TIMEFRAME REACH AN INCH PER HOUR. FURTHER COMPOUNDING THIS EVENT AND
MAKING FOR A HAZARDOUS ONE IS THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. SO EVEN IF THE SNWOFALL TOTALS STRUGGLE TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA...THE OTHER ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY
HAZARDOUSOVERNIGHT INTO TUE DAYBREAK CONDITION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAS FOCUSED ON THE SNOW ACCUMS/WINTER STORM
WARNING ASPECT...UNFORTUNATELY JUST SOUTH OF THOSE COUNTIES IS
THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS.
THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH WILL DICTATE WHO/WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS
LIQUID OR FROZEN. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT JUST SOUTH
OF THE WARNING A CHANNEL OF MIXED P-TYPE WILL OCCUR...AND SREF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN STEADILY LEANING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO
AS WELL. BUT THIS WILL ALL HINGE UPON THE PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE
850MB LOW...AS A SLIGHT NUDGE NORTH WOULD BRING WARMER AIR AND
CHANGE P- TYPE TO ALL LIQUID...AND SOUTH WOULD HAVE THE INVERSE
EFFECT WITH PERHAPS MORE SNOWFALL. BUT MY CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WARNING AND
ALONG I-80 IN NORTHERN IL WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPR 20S TO AROUND 30...THEN HEADING
INTO MID-MORNING TUE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AS THE 500MB TROUGH PIVOTS EAST ACROSS
IOWA/MISSOURI. ALONG THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE DEPARTING SFC WAVE
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND FGEN SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE REMAINING
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH TUE EARLY
AFTN. COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TUE NGT...SO
TEMPS COULD HOVER IN THE LOW/MID 30S AGAIN TUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
1246 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE FEATURES TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY LONGER LIVED WARMUP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW EXITS EAST...THE CORE OF
THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD BRINGING A FAIRLY
COLD NIGHT FOR EARLY MARCH. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO COMPLETELY SLACKEN
AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS AT A LEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA...EXPECT READINGS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CLOSE TO CHICAGO...WITH
20SFARTHER SOUTH.
ON WEDNESDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
TO QUEBEC THURSDAY ENABLING A NW FLOW PATTERN TO SETUP AND KEEP
COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE..HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIG SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WE
WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS HINGE ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE.
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. WE SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...BUT WARM
ADVECTION IS TEMPERED...THUS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPS BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY THEN THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW WITH THIS
QUICK HITTER. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE THE END OF THE WINTER LIKE
PATTERN. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A LARGE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...THEN
SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP TO ENSUE AS WE
REMAIN IN BROAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND TRANSITION TIMING FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO ZONE IN ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
FOR THE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THE MAIN TREND WILL BE FOR GUSTY
WSWLY-WNWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN
THE WIND TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS IS THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT TO
NELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
THE LAKE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK WIND
SHIFT FROM NWLY TO NELY SHORTLY AT ARND 23Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE AND GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 25KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE
THE GREATER IMPACT IS PCPN TYPE...TIMING OF ONSET...TIMING OF
CHANGES OF PCPN TYPE AND TIMING OF MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER ON A
SOLUTION. LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT THE COLD LAYER
FOLLOWING THE FROPA WILL BE TOO DEEP TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...SO
THAT PCPN TYPE HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE TAFS. ALSO...AT THE TIME
OF PCPN ONSET...TEMPS MAY STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW. THE
PERIOD OF ALL LIQUID COULD BE BRIEF SINCE THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
WILL BE RATHER LARGE...SUPPORTING STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY LOWER TEMPS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A QUICKER RAIN TO SNOW
CHANGE-OVER. SO...FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE -RASN
MIX TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF CHANGE GROUPS FOR WHAT WOULD
ULTIMATELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.
THE LATEST FORECAST TIMESECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING WILL BE FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 09Z FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND A LITTLE EARLIER AT RFD. SO...HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR 3/4SM. GIVEN THE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE SNOW...A PERIOD OF VIS LOWER THAN 3/4SM DURG THE
TIME PERIOD FROM 07Z TO 11Z IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO DROP VIS LOWER.
CONFIDENCE IS THE CIG FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW IS
RELATIVELY HIGH...SO THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING.
EXPECT THAT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN THE NELY FETCH AND DECREASING SFC
TEMPS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WHICH COULD HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON ORD/MDW WHILE WIND
DIRECTION REMAINS 040-050. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO MORE
NNELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED AND SNOWFALL RATES AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
300 PM...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST
SOUTH OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING STATIONARY. WINDS
ARE SHIFTING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO OHIO
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH
WINDS TO 30KT LIKELY. THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE
FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CANADA WHILE
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006...9 PM MONDAY
TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ014...9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...1144 AM CST
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. AN EXTREMELY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IS IN PLACE FROM THE LOCAL AREA TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH 850 MB TEMP ON 12Z RAOB RANGING FROM +2
CELSIUS AT ILX TO -25 CELSIUS AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MAKING QUICK HEADWAY SOUTHWARD AND HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WISCONSIN DELLS AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
REGIONAL RADAR OVER NORTHERN IOWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING 925 MB FGEN. THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT REMAINS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE 850 MB FRONT GETS BEFORE WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE PLAINS OCCURS. THIS WILL DICTATE
PLACEMENT OF WHAT WILL BECOME A NARROW AND INTENSE 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STEEP LAPSE
RATES...NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THE FGEN AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
ALSO ARGUE FOR HEAVY PRECIP RATES. GUIDANCE VARIES FROM FARTHER
NORTH 12KM NAM AND NMM TO LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF MODEL FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE FGEN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...SUSPECT THAT QPF VALUES COULD BE A BIT
UNDERDONE IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WHERE THE BAND SETS UP.
CONCEPTUALLY...THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR A VERY INTENSE BAND
OF PRECIP AND A SHARP CUTOFF SOUTH OF IT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LOWER LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURS THIS
EVENING...PRECIP COULD BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 925 MB FGEN
WITH POSSIBLE PTYPE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONCE 850 MB FGEN BAND
BECOMES DOMINANT...SUSPECT THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF A HEAVY SNOW OR
SO SCENARIO WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SLEET SOUTH OF THE BAND AS
925 MB LEVEL GETS QUITE COLD. BECOMING LESS CONCERNED OVERALL WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FOR REASONS ABOVE AND ALSO VERY WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES MENTIONED IN THE WSW PRODUCT FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
APPEAR TO BE EASILY ATTAINABLE GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY PRECIP BAND
OVERNIGHT. I`M WORRIED 6"+ AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE THAN
ISOLATED. ALSO CONCERNED THAT FGEN BAND COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF I-88 CURRENTLY IN ADVISORY
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO INCLUDE THEM IN WARNING. IF HEAVY
SNOW BAND DOES INDEED END UP CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR POINTS
SOUTH INCLUDING CHICAGO FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE
ROUGHLY THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE AS NEXT STRONG
MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING FAIRLY STRONG
FGEN AS DEFORMATION AXIS FORMS ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MAKE A DECISION
ON ANY HEADLINE CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
309 AM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY...
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF IL
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BY MID-MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW WARM TEMPS
BECOME...THEN FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL THEN BLEED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WELL MIXED LAYER LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST HI-RES SOLUTIONS NUDGE THE THERMAL RIDGE BACK
NORTH BY MIDDAY...AND PROG TEMPS APPROACHING THE MID/UPR 50S BY
EARLY AFTN. SIMULTANEOUSLY AS THE TEMPS WARM INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN IL...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH
AND NEARING MILWAUKEE BY 19-20Z AND LIKELY REACH FAR NORTHEAST IL BY
21-22Z. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL CLOSER
TO 23Z...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING STRATUS LAYER SOUTH AND
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST UPON PASSAGE. SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR TWO...AND GIVEN THE WARMTH PRECEEDING THE FROPA...TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS MORE OF A
DRY BOUNDARY WITH LOW CLOUDS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM FOCUSED IN FAR NORTHERN IL
AND SOUTHERN WI. GUIDANCE HAS DEMONSTRATED SOME DEGREE OF
CONSISTENCY WITH A INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE
STATELINE AND SOUTHERN WISC. LOCAL ARW-WRF GUIDANCE IS DEMONSTRATING
THIS WELL...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG AS THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE 850MB LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN IOWA BETWEEN 3-6Z TUE...WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED OVER A ROCKFORD TO WAUKEGAN LINE AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHARPENS AHEAD OF THE 850MB
LOW...WHICH PLACES THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS INTO THE PRIME
FGEN BANDED REGION. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME CONCERN WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS EVENT MAINLY WITH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WHICH MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SATURATED AND PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE TOO ELEVATED. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH LOWER SNOW
TOTALS...BUT COULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
TOWARDS A SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN. QPF REMAINS TIGHTLY FOCUSED
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN IL...AND BASED ON SNOW RATIOS AT
THE ONSET OF 8:1 TO 10:1...ACCUMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE UNTIL AFT
9Z TUE WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE REACHES THE DGZ AND OMEGA/LIFT
MAXIMIZES. THUS THERE WOULD BE SNOW RATES WITHIN THE 6-12Z TUE
TIMEFRAME REACH AN INCH PER HOUR. FURTHER COMPOUNDING THIS EVENT AND
MAKING FOR A HAZARDOUS ONE IS THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. SO EVEN IF THE SNWOFALL TOTALS STRUGGLE TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA...THE OTHER ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY
HAZARDOUSOVERNIGHT INTO TUE DAYBREAK CONDITION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAS FOCUSED ON THE SNOW ACCUMS/WINTER STORM
WARNING ASPECT...UNFORTUNATELY JUST SOUTH OF THOSE COUNTIES IS
THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS.
THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH WILL DICTATE WHO/WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS
LIQUID OR FROZEN. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT JUST SOUTH
OF THE WARNING A CHANNEL OF MIXED P-TYPE WILL OCCUR...AND SREF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN STEADILY LEANING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO
AS WELL. BUT THIS WILL ALL HINGE UPON THE PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE
850MB LOW...AS A SLIGHT NUDGE NORTH WOULD BRING WARMER AIR AND
CHANGE P- TYPE TO ALL LIQUID...AND SOUTH WOULD HAVE THE INVERSE
EFFECT WITH PERHAPS MORE SNOWFALL. BUT MY CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WARNING AND
ALONG I-80 IN NORTHERN IL WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPR 20S TO AROUND 30...THEN HEADING
INTO MID-MORNING TUE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AS THE 500MB TROUGH PIVOTS EAST ACROSS
IOWA/MISSOURI. ALONG THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE DEPARTING SFC WAVE
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND FGEN SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE REMAINING
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH TUE EARLY
AFTN. COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TUE NGT...SO
TEMPS COULD HOVER IN THE LOW/MID 30S AGAIN TUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
1246 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE FEATURES TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY LONGER LIVED WARMUP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW EXITS EAST...THE CORE OF
THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD BRINGING A FAIRLY
COLD NIGHT FOR EARLY MARCH. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO COMPLETELY SLACKEN
AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS AT A LEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA...EXPECT READINGS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CLOSE TO CHICAGO...WITH
20SFARTHER SOUTH.
ON WEDNESDAY...THIS HIGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
TO QUEBEC THURSDAY ENABLING A NW FLOW PATTERN TO SETUP AND KEEP
COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE..HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIG SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WE
WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS HINGE ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE.
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. WE SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...BUT WARM
ADVECTION IS TEMPERED...THUS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPS BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY THEN THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW WITH THIS
QUICK HITTER. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE THE END OF THE WINTER LIKE
PATTERN. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A LARGE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...THEN
SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP TO ENSUE AS WE
REMAIN IN BROAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND TRANSITION TIMING FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO ZONE IN ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
FOR THE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THE MAIN TREND WILL BE FOR GUSTY
WSWLY-WNWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN
THE WIND TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS IS THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT TO
NELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
THE LAKE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK WIND
SHIFT FROM NWLY TO NELY SHORTLY AT ARND 23Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE AND GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 25KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE
THE GREATER IMPACT IS PCPN TYPE...TIMING OF ONSET...TIMING OF
CHANGES OF PCPN TYPE AND TIMING OF MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER ON A
SOLUTION. LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT THE COLD LAYER
FOLLOWING THE FROPA WILL BE TOO DEEP TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...SO
THAT PCPN TYPE HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE TAFS. ALSO...AT THE TIME
OF PCPN ONSET...TEMPS MAY STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW. THE
PERIOD OF ALL LIQUID COULD BE BRIEF SINCE THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
WILL BE RATHER LARGE...SUPPORTING STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY LOWER TEMPS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A QUICKER RAIN TO SNOW
CHANGE-OVER. SO...FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE -RASN
MIX TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF CHANGE GROUPS FOR WHAT WOULD
ULTIMATELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.
THE LATEST FORECAST TIMESECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING WILL BE FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 09Z FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND A LITTLE EARLIER AT RFD. SO...HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR 3/4SM. GIVEN THE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE SNOW...A PERIOD OF VIS LOWER THAN 3/4SM DURG THE
TIME PERIOD FROM 07Z TO 11Z IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO DROP VIS LOWER.
CONFIDENCE IS THE CIG FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW IS
RELATIVELY HIGH...SO THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING.
EXPECT THAT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN THE NELY FETCH AND DECREASING SFC
TEMPS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WHICH COULD HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON ORD/MDW WHILE WIND
DIRECTION REMAINS 040-050. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO MORE
NNELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED AND SNOWFALL RATES AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT
WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH GALES DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY
AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST/EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004...6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ005-ILZ006...9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011...6 PM MONDAY TO
9 AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...9 PM MONDAY TO
9 AM TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1214 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
1144 AM CST
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. AN EXTREMELY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IS IN PLACE FROM THE LOCAL AREA TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH 850 MB TEMP ON 12Z RAOB RANGING FROM +2
CELSIUS AT ILX TO -25 CELSIUS AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MAKING QUICK HEADWAY SOUTHWARD AND HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WISCONSIN DELLS AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
REGIONAL RADAR OVER NORTHERN IOWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING 925 MB FGEN. THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT REMAINS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE 850 MB FRONT GETS BEFORE WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE PLAINS OCCURS. THIS WILL DICTATE
PLACEMENT OF WHAT WILL BECOME A NARROW AND INTENSE 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STEEP LAPSE
RATES...NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THE FGEN AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
ALSO ARGUE FOR HEAVY PRECIP RATES. GUIDANCE VARIES FROM FARTHER
NORTH 12KM NAM AND NMM TO LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF MODEL FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE FGEN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...SUSPECT THAT QPF VALUES COULD BE A BIT
UNDERDONE IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WHERE THE BAND SETS UP.
CONCEPTUALLY...THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR A VERY INTENSE BAND
OF PRECIP AND A SHARP CUTOFF SOUTH OF IT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LOWER LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURS THIS
EVENING...PRECIP COULD BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 925 MB FGEN
WITH POSSIBLE PTYPE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONCE 850 MB FGEN BAND
BECOMES DOMINANT...SUSPECT THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF A HEAVY SNOW OR
SO SCENARIO WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SLEET SOUTH OF THE BAND AS
925 MB LEVEL GETS QUITE COLD. BECOMING LESS CONCERNED OVERALL WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FOR REASONS ABOVE AND ALSO VERY WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES MENTIONED IN THE WSW PRODUCT FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
APPEAR TO BE EASILY ATTAINABLE GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY PRECIP BAND
OVERNIGHT. I`M WORRIED 6"+ AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE THAN
ISOLATED. ALSO CONCERNED THAT FGEN BAND COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF I-88 CURRENTLY IN ADVISORY
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO INCLUDE THEM IN WARNING. IF HEAVY
SNOW BAND DOES INDEED END UP CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR POINTS
SOUTH INCLUDING CHICAGO FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE
ROUGHLY THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE AS NEXT STRONG
MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING FAIRLY STRONG
FGEN AS DEFORMATION AXIS FORMS ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MAKE A DECISION
ON ANY HEADLINE CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
309 AM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY...
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF IL
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BY MID-MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW WARM TEMPS
BECOME...THEN FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL THEN BLEED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WELL MIXED LAYER LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST HI-RES SOLUTIONS NUDGE THE THERMAL RIDGE BACK
NORTH BY MIDDAY...AND PROG TEMPS APPROACHING THE MID/UPR 50S BY
EARLY AFTN. SIMULTANEOUSLY AS THE TEMPS WARM INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN IL...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH
AND NEARING MILWAUKEE BY 19-20Z AND LIKELY REACH FAR NORTHEAST IL BY
21-22Z. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL CLOSER
TO 23Z...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING STRATUS LAYER SOUTH AND
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST UPON PASSAGE. SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR TWO...AND GIVEN THE WARMTH PRECEEDING THE FROPA...TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS MORE OF A
DRY BOUNDARY WITH LOW CLOUDS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM FOCUSED IN FAR NORTHERN IL
AND SOUTHERN WI. GUIDANCE HAS DEMONSTRATED SOME DEGREE OF
CONSISTENCY WITH A INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE
STATELINE AND SOUTHERN WISC. LOCAL ARW-WRF GUIDANCE IS DEMONSTRATING
THIS WELL...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG AS THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE 850MB LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN IOWA BETWEEN 3-6Z TUE...WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED OVER A ROCKFORD TO WAUKEGAN LINE AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHARPENS AHEAD OF THE 850MB
LOW...WHICH PLACES THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS INTO THE PRIME
FGEN BANDED REGION. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME CONCERN WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS EVENT MAINLY WITH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WHICH MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SATURATED AND PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE TOO ELEVATED. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH LOWER SNOW
TOTALS...BUT COULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
TOWARDS A SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN. QPF REMAINS TIGHTLY FOCUSED
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN IL...AND BASED ON SNOW RATIOS AT
THE ONSET OF 8:1 TO 10:1...ACCUMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE UNTIL AFT
9Z TUE WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE REACHES THE DGZ AND OMEGA/LIFT
MAXIMIZES. THUS THERE WOULD BE SNOW RATES WITHIN THE 6-12Z TUE
TIMEFRAME REACH AN INCH PER HOUR. FURTHER COMPOUNDING THIS EVENT AND
MAKING FOR A HAZARDOUS ONE IS THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. SO EVEN IF THE SNWOFALL TOTALS STRUGGLE TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA...THE OTHER ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY HAZAROUS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE DAYBREAK CONDITION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAS FOCUSED ON THE SNOW ACCUMS/WINTER STORM
WARNING ASPECT...UNFORTUNATLEY JUST SOUTH OF THOSE COUNTIES IS THE
CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. THERE
STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE THERMAL
PROFILES...WHICH WILL DICTATE WHO/WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID OR
FROZEN. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARNING A CHANNEL OF MIXED P-TYPE WILL OCCUR...AND SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE BEEN STEADILY LEANING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.
BUT THIS WILL ALL HINGE UPON THE PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE 850MB
LOW...AS A SLIGHT NUDGE NORTH WOULD BRING WARMER AIR AND CHANGE P-
TYPE TO ALL LIQUID...AND SOUTH WOULD HAVE THE INVERSE EFFECT WITH
PERHAPS MORE SNOWFALL. BUT MY CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
IS THAT THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WARNING AND ALONG I-80 IN NORTHERN
IL WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPR 20S TO AROUND 30...THEN HEADING
INTO MID-MORNING TUE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AS THE 500MB TROUGH PIVOTS EAST ACROSS
IOWA/MISSOURI. ALONG THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE DEPARTING SFC WAVE
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND FGEN SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE REMAINING
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH TUE EARLY
AFTN. COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TUE NGT...SO
TEMPS COULD HOVER IN THE LOW/MID 30S AGAIN TUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
309 AM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WED...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE HIGH-PLAINS. WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD WED...THERE
SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. BUT THE SFC RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY WED EVE...WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM NEARING THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED EARLY
EVE AND SPREADING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE
ENHANCES THE SYSTEM EARLY THUR ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME HIGHER QPF AND SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MIDDAY THUR. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW
30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING SOME WEAK
RIDGING SLIDING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING
A SYSTEM ARRIVING OVER THE REGION SAT...BUT QUICKLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST BY SAT NGT AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL BE NEARING THE LOW 50S AGAIN BY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND TRANSITION TIMING FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO ZONE IN ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
FOR THE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THE MAIN TREND WILL BE FOR GUSTY
WSWLY-WNWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN
THE WIND TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS IS THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT TO
NELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
THE LAKE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK WIND
SHIFT FROM NWLY TO NELY SHORTLY AT ARND 23Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE AND GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 25KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE
THE GREATER IMPACT IS PCPN TYPE...TIMING OF ONSET...TIMING OF
CHANGES OF PCPN TYPE AND TIMING OF MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER ON A
SOLUTION. LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT THE COLD LAYER
FOLLOWING THE FROPA WILL BE TOO DEEP TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...SO
THAT PCPN TYPE HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE TAFS. ALSO...AT THE TIME
OF PCPN ONSET...TEMPS MAY STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW. THE
PERIOD OF ALL LIQUID COULD BE BRIEF SINCE THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
WILL BE RATHER LARGE...SUPPORTING STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY LOWER TEMPS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A QUICKER RAIN TO SNOW
CHANGE-OVER. SO...FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE -RASN
MIX TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF CHANGE GROUPS FOR WHAT WOULD
ULTIMATELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.
THE LATEST FORECAST TIMESECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER FORCING WILL BE FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 09Z FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND A LITTLE EARLIER AT RFD. SO...HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO FOR 3/4SM. GIVEN THE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE SNOW...A PERIOD OF VIS LOWER THAN 3/4SM DURG THE
TIME PERIOD FROM 07Z TO 11Z IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO DROP VIS LOWER.
CONFIDENCE IS THE CIG FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW IS
RELATIVELY HIGH...SO THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING.
EXPECT THAT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...BUT GIVEN THE NELY FETCH AND DECREASING SFC
TEMPS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WHICH COULD HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON ORD/MDW WHILE WIND
DIRECTION REMAINS 040-050. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO MORE
NNELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED AND SNOWFALL RATES AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT
WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH GALES DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY
AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST/EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004...6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ005-ILZ006...9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011...6 PM MONDAY TO
9 AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...9 PM MONDAY TO
9 AM TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1144 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
1144 AM CST
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. AN EXTREMELY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IS IN PLACE FROM THE LOCAL AREA TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH 850 MB TEMP ON 12Z RAOB RANGING FROM +2
CELSIUS AT ILX TO -25 CELSIUS AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MAKING QUICK HEADWAY SOUTHWARD AND HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WISCONSIN DELLS AREA. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON
REGIONAL RADAR OVER NORTHERN IOWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING 925 MB FGEN. THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT REMAINS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE 850 MB FRONT GETS BEFORE WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE PLAINS OCCURS. THIS WILL DICTATE
PLACEMENT OF WHAT WILL BECOME A NARROW AND INTENSE 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STEEP LAPSE
RATES...NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THE FGEN AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
ALSO ARGUE FOR HEAVY PRECIP RATES. GUIDANCE VARIES FROM FARTHER
NORTH 12KM NAM AND NMM TO LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF MODEL FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE FGEN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...SUSPECT THAT QPF VALUES COULD BE A BIT
UNDERDONE IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WHERE THE BAND SETS UP.
CONCEPTUALLY...THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR A VERY INTENSE BAND
OF PRECIP AND A SHARP CUTOFF SOUTH OF IT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY LOWER LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURS THIS
EVENING...PRECIP COULD BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 925 MB FGEN
WITH POSSIBLE PTYPE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ONCE 850 MB FGEN BAND
BECOMES DOMINANT...SUSPECT THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF A HEAVY SNOW OR
SO SCENARIO WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SLEET SOUTH OF THE BAND AS
925 MB LEVEL GETS QUITE COLD. BECOMING LESS CONCERNED OVERALL WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FOR REASONS ABOVE AND ALSO VERY WARM
PAVEMENT TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES MENTIONED IN THE WSW PRODUCT FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
APPEAR TO BE EASILY ATTAINABLE GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY PRECIP BAND
OVERNIGHT. I`M WORRIED 6"+ AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE THAN
ISOLATED. ALSO CONCERNED THAT FGEN BAND COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF I-88 CURRENTLY IN ADVISORY
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO INCLUDE THEM IN WARNING. IF HEAVY
SNOW BAND DOES INDEED END UP CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR POINTS
SOUTH INCLUDING CHICAGO FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE
ROUGHLY THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE AS NEXT STRONG
MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING FAIRLY STRONG
FGEN AS DEFORMATION AXIS FORMS ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MAKE A DECISION
ON ANY HEADLINE CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
309 AM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY...
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF IL
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BY MID-MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW WARM TEMPS
BECOME...THEN FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL THEN BLEED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WELL MIXED LAYER LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST HI-RES SOLUTIONS NUDGE THE THERMAL RIDGE BACK
NORTH BY MIDDAY...AND PROG TEMPS APPROACHING THE MID/UPR 50S BY
EARLY AFTN. SIMULTANEOUSLY AS THE TEMPS WARM INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN IL...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH
AND NEARING MILWAUKEE BY 19-20Z AND LIKELY REACH FAR NORTHEAST IL BY
21-22Z. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL CLOSER
TO 23Z...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING STRATUS LAYER SOUTH AND
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST UPON PASSAGE. SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR TWO...AND GIVEN THE WARMTH PRECEEDING THE FROPA...TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS MORE OF A
DRY BOUNDARY WITH LOW CLOUDS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM FOCUSED IN FAR NORTHERN IL
AND SOUTHERN WI. GUIDANCE HAS DEMONSTRATED SOME DEGREE OF
CONSISTENCY WITH A INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE
STATELINE AND SOUTHERN WISC. LOCAL ARW-WRF GUIDANCE IS DEMONSTRATING
THIS WELL...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG AS THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE 850MB LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN IOWA BETWEEN 3-6Z TUE...WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED OVER A ROCKFORD TO WAUKEGAN LINE AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHARPENS AHEAD OF THE 850MB
LOW...WHICH PLACES THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS INTO THE PRIME
FGEN BANDED REGION. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME CONCERN WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS EVENT MAINLY WITH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WHICH MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SATURATED AND PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE TOO ELEVATED. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH LOWER SNOW
TOTALS...BUT COULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
TOWARDS A SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN. QPF REMAINS TIGHTLY FOCUSED
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN IL...AND BASED ON SNOW RATIOS AT
THE ONSET OF 8:1 TO 10:1...ACCUMS MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE UNTIL AFT
9Z TUE WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE REACHES THE DGZ AND OMEGA/LIFT
MAXIMIZES. THUS THERE WOULD BE SNOW RATES WITHIN THE 6-12Z TUE
TIMEFRAME REACH AN INCH PER HOUR. FURTHER COMPOUNDING THIS EVENT AND
MAKING FOR A HAZARDOUS ONE IS THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. SO EVEN IF THE SNWOFALL TOTALS STRUGGLE TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA...THE OTHER ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE A VERY HAZAROUS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE DAYBREAK CONDITION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAS FOCUSED ON THE SNOW ACCUMS/WINTER STORM
WARNING ASPECT...UNFORTUNATLEY JUST SOUTH OF THOSE COUNTIES IS THE
CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. THERE
STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE THERMAL
PROFILES...WHICH WILL DICTATE WHO/WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID OR
FROZEN. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARNING A CHANNEL OF MIXED P-TYPE WILL OCCUR...AND SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE BEEN STEADILY LEANING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.
BUT THIS WILL ALL HINGE UPON THE PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE 850MB
LOW...AS A SLIGHT NUDGE NORTH WOULD BRING WARMER AIR AND CHANGE P-
TYPE TO ALL LIQUID...AND SOUTH WOULD HAVE THE INVERSE EFFECT WITH
PERHAPS MORE SNOWFALL. BUT MY CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
IS THAT THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WARNING AND ALONG I-80 IN NORTHERN
IL WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPR 20S TO AROUND 30...THEN HEADING
INTO MID-MORNING TUE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AS THE 500MB TROUGH PIVOTS EAST ACROSS
IOWA/MISSOURI. ALONG THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE DEPARTING SFC WAVE
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND FGEN SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE REMAINING
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH TUE EARLY
AFTN. COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TUE NGT...SO
TEMPS COULD HOVER IN THE LOW/MID 30S AGAIN TUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
309 AM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WED...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE HIGH-PLAINS. WITH SFC RIDGING OVERHEAD WED...THERE
SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. BUT THE SFC RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY WED EVE...WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM NEARING THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED EARLY
EVE AND SPREADING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE
ENHANCES THE SYSTEM EARLY THUR ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME HIGHER QPF AND SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MIDDAY THUR. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW
30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING SOME WEAK
RIDGING SLIDING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING
A SYSTEM ARRIVING OVER THE REGION SAT...BUT QUICKLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST BY SAT NGT AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL BE NEARING THE LOW 50S AGAIN BY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
550 PM...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP TYPE
AND TIMING FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...THOUGH TRENDS ARE
EMERGING.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE
BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS FIRST SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHWESTERLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH
SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH A
PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN FORM A SECONDARY BOUNDARY
PUSHING IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING...TIMING WILL
LIKELY NEED MINOR ADJUSTING LATER TODAY. WINDS THEN REMAIN GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
THE EXACT LOCATION ALONG WITH HOW WIDE OR NARROW THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE FOCUS
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-88...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE
ORD/DPA/RFD. PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY START AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/
SNOW BUT IF PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES TO MODERATE OR HEAVY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST...IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A
SNOW/SLEET MIX AND HAVE THIS GENERAL TREND IN THOSE 3 TERMINALS.
FREEZING RAIN WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY SO ONLY
PROB MENTION.
PRECIP TIMING/INTENSITY AND THUS TYPE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AT
MDW/GYY. THE OVERALL TREND TO SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET IS REASONABLE...
BUT THAT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW THIS EVENING BUT
JUST PROB MENTION FOR MIXED PRECIP.
GIVEN THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES AND COMBINATIONS
POSSIBLE...SMALL CHANGES REGARDING WHERE THE PRECIP OCCURS AND
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS...MAY RESULT IN LARGE
CHANGES IN LATER TAFS. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT
WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH GALES DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY
AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE
SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST/EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004...6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ005-ILZ006...9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM
TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011...6 PM MONDAY TO
9 AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...9 PM MONDAY TO
9 AM TUESDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1149 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
A cold front has pushed eastward to reach roughly the I-70
corridor through southeast IL. Ahead of the front strong southwest
winds 20-30 mph and gusts into the 30-40 mph range continue, with
lighter wind speeds along the frontal zone. Behind the front,
another patch of stronger northwest winds follows, with speeds
15 to 30 mph and more gusts into the 30s. In addition, a couple of
bands of showers with isolated thunderstorms have developed in the
frontal zone, and these should affect areas mainly from I-57 east
as late as midnight before moving out to the east. Winds should
gradually decrease overnight and begin to shift back to
southwesterly by dawn as a surface high pressure ridge axis
crosses the area in the early morning. Temperatures remain
mild...in the 50s to around 60...ahead of the front. Behind the
front, a steady drop is noted with temperatures ranging from
around 40 to 50. Lows overnight should reach from around 32 in
Galesburg, Peoria, and Bloomington, upward to the mid and upper
30s south of I-70. Updates this evening have mainly been for the
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over previous
forecasts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Cold front has just crossed the Illinois/Iowa border as of 2 pm and
is steadily marching east. Increase in cloud cover has started to
temper some of the wind gusts across the western CWA, and am
planning to let the wind advisory expire west from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward at 4 pm. However, still quite a bit of sun
across the southeast third of the CWA, which has helped with the
mixing of the winds down to the surface. Have had some recent
sustained winds of 40-45 mph from Paris to Lawrenceville with gusts
of 50-55 mph. HRRR model shows a few more hours of strong gusts over
there. Across the southeast third of the forecast area, the advisory
has been extended until 6 pm.
The front should be near I-57 by 7 pm and exiting the southeast CWA
around 9 pm. Strong pressure rises behind the front will likely
bring additional gusts of 35-40 mph northwest of I-55 early this
evening, but the gusts should be settling a bit by the time eastern
Illinois is affected. Rain-wise, temperature/dewpoint spreads are
currently around 20 degrees, although high-resolution model guidance
still tries to generate a few showers over the next few hours. Will
maintain generally 20% PoP`s into early evening, although a bit
higher near the Indiana border.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Monday will see the return of southwest flow in the morning, helping
to recover from the brief push of cold air behind Sunday`s cold
front. Some sunshine should help high temps range from the upper 50s
near Danville in eastern IL, to the lower 60s toward Jacksonville
and west central IL.
A storm system is still taking aim on the region for Tuesday. The
12z models are in better agreement, with the GFS, NAM, and Canadian
GEM all taking a low pressure center roughly up the I-70 corridor
later Tuesday morning into afternoon. The ECMWF is farther south
with the track, taking the low across the far southern tip of IL
Tuesday morning, which is 6 hours faster that the other models.
The thermal profiles in the GFS group look to support rain initially
Monday evening as rain develops Rushville to Bloomington
northwestward, then sleet or freezing rain could develop late Monday
night into Tuesday morning north of Peoria. As temps rise above
freezing on Tuesday, precip type should transition to mainly rain,
but sleet or snow will still be possible north of a line from
Rushville to Lincoln to Bloomington through the day. As the surface
low passes across southern IL around mid-day, colder air will be
drawn into the northwest side of the system, changing precip over to
snow in our area northwest of the Illinois river initially. The
change-over to snow should continue Tues evening as colder air
arrives. However, precip potential will decrease as well, so
additional snowfall accums Tues night should be more like a dusting.
Through the whole system evolution, the better chances of snow accum
will be mainly north of Peoria, where up to an inch of snow could
accumulate. Along and north of I-74 will have potential for a few
tenths of an inch as the system departs east of Illinois.
All precip should be done by sunrise on Wed, as high pressure
advances into IL from the west. However, the next system will
quickly start of affect the area later Wed night, as rain or snow
develops in the warm advection area ahead of the low. The low path
looks to remain far enough south of our counties for the precip to
be primarily snow in our counties. Forecast QPF amounts vary widely,
with the Canadian showing potential for a couple of inches snow
accum, mainly in our northern counties, but around an inch even
south of I-72. GFS shows around an inch of snow occurring from west
to east Wednesday into Wed evening. The ECMWF has much less moisture
available, with only a dusting of snow. Will keep the chance PoPs
from the blended initialization, and keep snow as the primary precip
type north of I-72, and a rain/snow mix south of there on Thursday,
with precip as all snow Thursday night before precip ends.
Beyond that, a weak shortwave is projected to pass across northern
IL Sat into Sat night, with spotty rain or snow chances north of our
forecast area. We could see sprinkles or flurries develop, but most
areas should remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MVFR ceilings from KGBG-KLWV northeastward this evening, and
include most of central IL terminals. VFR conditions to the south.
The area of low ceilings continues to steadily move eastward and
VFR ceilings should return to the area by 9-10Z. Brisk NW winds
15-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts to continue at 06Z, but will
decrease rapidly overnight. Winds to become W-SW less than 10 kts
by dawn, then increase to around 15g25 kts for late morning
through afternoon. A chance for precipitation will approach from
the north late in the period as a cold front approaches. At this
point, conditions look to remain VFR through 06Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton/Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
321 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
A WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A NARROW AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INDIANA AND MICHIGAN STATE
LINE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH 1 TO 3 POSSIBLE ELSWHERE. ICE
ACCUMULATION COULD APPROACH A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN
INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
30S SOUTH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS AMONG MODELS
FOR SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS MAINLY DEALS WITH LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC LOW TRACK WHICH ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA AS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OVER TOP
ALONG WITH CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW LINE. AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET EXPECTED NEAR THE INDIANA AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO BUT COULD STILL VARY DEPENDING ON STORM
TRACK.
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING ALONG FRONT EVIDENT OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT PCPN ALONG LEADING BOUNDARY.
HIRES GUIDANCE TENDS TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS PCPN AND RADAR
TRENDS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA. WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE NORTH. BETTER FORCING FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPS LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM. FGEN RESPONSE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS
OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR SEVERAL RUNS WITH DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
PLACEMENT. MOST GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO OUR MI
COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH DEEPER COLD WEDGE IN PLACE BUT DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT...A MIX IS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.
WEAKLY COUPLED JET ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
WILL AID IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. FROM OUR VANTAGE POINT
IT APPEARS THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE A NICE COMPROMISE WITH SFC LOW
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH TAKING LOW FROM
NEAR SPRINGFIELD IL AT 12Z TO KGUS AT 18Z AND WEST OF KCLE BY
00Z/02. GFS REMAINS SOUTH WITH LOW JUST NORTH OF OHIO RIVER AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OH BY 00Z/02. THE NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH WARM SURGE ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE AND IS TAKING
MOST PCPN OVER TO FZRA ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE COLDER AND MAINLY SNOW. FOR THE POWT TOP DOWN PROCESS DID BLEND
IN RUC DATA AS FAR AS IT WILL GO OUT WITH THE COLDER GFS WHICH IS
CLOSER TO ECMWF IN THERMAL FIELDS THAN NAM. THE MAX LAYER
TEMPERATURE FOR THE RUC WAS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AS
WELL. CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH
MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET AT ONSET CENTRAL. COLDER AIR
THEN WRAPS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON CHANGING ANY RESIDUAL PCPN OVER
TO ALL SNOW.
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...MOST 12Z GUIDANCE DID TREND TOWARD LESS
PRECIPITATION WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION. NAM12 OF COURSE THE
OUTLIER WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTH. HIRES ARW SUPPORTS
THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF GFS...ECMWF AND GEM AND FORECAST FOR NOW HAS
LEANED TOWARD THESE MODELS USING WPC GUIDANCE. SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 2-
4 INCHES POSSIBLE FAR NORTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL DELTA T VALUES BUT DECENT CYCLONIC FETCH AND GOOD DGZ.
KEPT POPS IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH ACCUMS AN INCH OR
LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
MARGINAL CONDITIONS TO BEGIN WITH...A FEW TENTHS AT BEST AND
LIKELY JUST FLURRIES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SECOND PACIFIC WAVE SET TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY IN SIMILAR FASHION TO TOMORROWS EVENT. LATEST
MODELS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD...CLIPPING MOST
OF OUR CWA WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME HEALTHY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...GOOD UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH POTENTIAL FOR COUPLED
JETS...A RELATIVELY DEEP PV ANOMALY...STRONG MIDLEVEL CVA...AND A
DECENT STRIPE OF DEFORMATION/FGEN ON NORTHERN FLANK OF SURFACE LOW.
MAIN QUESTION WILL OF COURSE BE EXACT TRACK AND THE QUALITY OF
FORCING THIS FAR NORTH. LATEST 12Z MODELS ACTUALLY IN DECENT
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING PARENT JET ENERGY IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
AND ISSUES SEEN WITH CURRENT EVENT. DID ADD SOME LIKELY POPS TO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS AT THIS
RANGE. MAY BE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. GOOD (OR BAD?) NEWS
IS THAT THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIP DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM TO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND NARROW DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BUT MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO DISCUSS DETAILS AT
THIS POINT. OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE SHARP WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS AND MORE 60+
DEGREE WEATHER EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY BY TUES-WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
WITH JUST SOME MIDLEVEL WAA CLOUDS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR NORTHERN INDIANA WITH WINDS
BECOMING E/NE BUT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION OVER
THE AREA. FUEL ALTERNATE CEILINGS LIKELY BY MORNING BUT EXACT
START TIME REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS UNTIL AFTER 06Z...
ESPECIALLY AT KFWA. PRECIP ALSO LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
AND DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION YET DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
WITH EXACT PTYPES. SNOW AND ICE WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT
KSBN BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY TO
1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ003>007.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...AGD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
104 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. RUC AND
HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING OVER WEST
CENTRAL AREA AND EXPANDING EASTWARD. WENT WITH HIGHER CONSRAW POPS
GIVEN MOS AND HIRES TRENDS.
FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WREAKING HAVOC ON
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN REACHED AMONG MODELS ON BASIC SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...MANY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS AND STILL
WITHIN EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DESPITE BEING
WITHIN 48 HOURS OF PCPN ONSET. MOST OF THIS DISPARITY COMES FROM
FACT THAT MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND
WILL NOT BE SAMPLED FULLY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY. THIS
ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH
THEN EAST OUT OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND
INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES IS PROVING PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL MODELS.
WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ITS DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS AN ISSUE AMONG MODELS.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT DEVELOPS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. FGEN FORCING WITH THIS ADVECTION PROCESS WILL
LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH TO BEGIN. AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVIER. COMBINATION OF SFC
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C WILL LEAD TO AREA OF
FREEZING RAIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. 12Z SUITE HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND ARE ONCE AGAIN
ADVERTISING A STRONG WARM SURGE THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.
GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN FASTER
TUESDAY. THESE LATTER MODELS ARE GENERALLY PREFERRED BUT THEY ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY
TUESDAY.
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME
OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TO GET MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND FULLY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS GIVEN COMPLEX
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND INTERACTIONS. STILL RETAINED ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WITH MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND DEPENDING ON FINAL TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS A NARROW
RIBBON OF ICE ACCUMS COULD COME CLOSE TO 0.20-0.25 INCHES.
AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT SOME TYPE OF HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY
GIVEN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS
BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THIS PERIOD REMAIN MURKY GIVEN
MODEL DISPARITY BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WITH
WRAP AROUND AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.
STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS IN THE MIDST OF A HIGHLY ENERGETIC
PATTERN WEDNESDAY AMID ERN CONUS TROF/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
QUICK RETURN TO NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION W/ RETURN
FLOW/WAA REGIME ESTABLISHING.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AS
LOW AS -15C...WHICH COULD BRING A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER TO FAVORED
AREAS. GRIDS SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE SPEED/EVOLUTION OF THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/SRN CANADA WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC/FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS POINT...WITH LARGE
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. IT IS NOTED
THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT NICE DENDRITIC
GROWTH...HOWEVER STRENGTH OF FORCING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURTAIL ANY SPECIFICS BEYOND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND CHANCE POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WED- FRI ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS/20S...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE REGION.
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT FRIDAY/SAT TIMEFRAME WITH RIDGING/WAA
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING A PASSING WAVE
SOMETIME SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN
PINPOINTING DETAILS WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD 6-7 DAYS OUT. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY AND INTO THE
MID 40S/LOW 50S SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE CONTINUED WARMING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016
CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W SHEARING DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE LAKES MAKING
RAPID EWD PROGRESS AND ON TOP OF THE KFWA TERMINAL. LAGGING BAND OF
POST FNTL SHRA MAY YIELD A VRY BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION
THERE TO START OTRWS PD OF MVFR STRATOCU FOLLOWS WITHIN LL CAA WING.
THEREAFTER FLW BACKS QUICKLY THROUGH LT MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
POTENT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DIGGING SEWD OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. EWD DVLPG WAA WING AHD OF
THIS SYS LIKELY TO SETUP JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS LT PD ALG
STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THUS VFR CONDS SHLD RULE MID PD ON.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SW GRADIENT WINDS TO RAMP AGAIN BY MID MORNING
THROUGH LT AFTN W/SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
524 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
Winds and cloud cover should diminish this evening as a surface high
pressure builds southward behind the departing wave. Overnight winds
will gradually veer as return flow develops and the low level jet
strengthens, which is in response to another weak mid level
shortwave approaching from the west. Ahead of this wave there may be
some clouds around 10 kft that move over the area around sunrise.
This cloud cover should not have an affect on the low temperatures
since they should occur during the late evening and early morning.
So tomorrow morning temperatures will slowly rise, and be out of the
south by sunrise.
Due to the timing of the shortwave the low level jet will maximize
over the southeast half of the forecast area as it tracks eastward.
This low level wind maximum should coincide with peak heating
therefore allowing gusty winds to mix down to the surface. By this
time the mid level clouds are forecasted to scatter out and or move
off to the east. South to southwest winds will reach 20 to 30 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s
to near 70. Dew points drop into the low 30 which will cause minimum
RH values to approach low 30 to upper 20 percent. Given the warm and
windy combination fire danger will be very high and possibly
extreme. The models tend to under estimate deep mixing in these
scenarios therefore a red flag warning may be needed for portions of
the area. As of now the worst fire conditions should be around east
central KS. As the shortwave tracks over the plains cumulus may
develop across central KS associated with steepening lapse rates and
deep mixing. There may be enough focus for an isolated shower to
form in north central KS. For now have kept all areas dry through
the late afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
The period starts with surface low pressure moving southeast across
northeast Kansas bringing chances for precipitation to the area.
With low temperatures almost 8-10 degrees above freezing, any precip
that can make it through the dry layer near the surface will fall in
the form of rain. With deep layer lift and some mid-level
instability present, have opted to include a mention of isolated
thunder in north central Kansas for this time frame. On Thursday,
northwest flow behind the frontal passage will keep temperatures
cooler, with highs topping out in the 50s. With no sensible
weather Friday or Saturday, WAA brings highs into the low to mid
60s both these days. From Sunday through the end of the period,
models diverge slightly on the general pattern of waves moving
across the area. Overall, a series of waves will bring chances for
rain and thunderstorms to northeast Kansas. A shortwave Sunday
night begins to amplify into Monday resulting in greater moisture
advection into eastern Kansas. For now, the atmosphere looks
capped until Tuesday, which has the best chances for thunderstorm
development.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 524 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
Dry air within the lower troposphere should allow VFR conditions
to persist. Main concern is potential for LLWS with a
strengthening low level jet. The NAM and RAP show the axis of the
low level jet moving approaching MHK before dawn, but not moving
into TOP and FOE until mid morning when the nocturnal inversion
normally mixes out. Because of this have introduced LLWS in the
MHK terminal for a few hours Wed morning but left it out of TOP
and FOE.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for KSZ012-024-026-
037>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IA...ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO
WESTERN SD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN KS...INTO SW KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN CO/KS BY 12Z TUE. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP AND WITH LIMITED
CAPPING...STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY FLIRT WITH FAR SOUTHERN KS AFTER 03Z. BOTH NAM
AND RAP AGREE ON BETWEEN 1,000-2,000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME DIME SIZE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KS.
WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK TO NW FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED WITH YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THU. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO WARM TEMPS UP WED WITH
AREAS WEST OF I-135 GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S. THESE WARMER TEMPS
ARE SUPPORTED BY 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPS ALONG WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY
AFFECT ONLY NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS. SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI. ALL
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A MORE ROBUST
TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MUCH
WEAKER IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE WARMEST.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT 1730Z THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM KAUH-
KHLC-K3K3. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS KGBD AND KRSL BY 00Z...KCNU BY
09Z. VFR CONDITIONS.
KRC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED FOR TUE AND
ESPECIALLY WED.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
TUE. AFTERNOON SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE SPEEDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE
30-40% RANGE TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER AREA WIDE.
THE BIGGER FIRE CONCERN DAY WILL BE WED WHEN WINDS FLIP BACK
AROUND TO THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ON WED AFTERNOON ALONG AND SE OF THE
KS TURNPIKE WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN
THE 20-30% RANGE TO PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO THE
UPPER END OF VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH
EXTREME. THEREFORE...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED BOTH TUE AND WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 56 34 68 / 20 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 54 32 68 / 20 0 0 0
NEWTON 34 53 32 66 / 20 0 0 0
ELDORADO 36 54 32 65 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 39 56 33 68 / 30 10 0 0
RUSSELL 33 56 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 35 56 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 34 52 31 66 / 20 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 34 52 31 67 / 20 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 41 55 31 64 / 60 20 0 0
CHANUTE 38 52 30 62 / 30 20 0 0
IOLA 36 50 29 62 / 30 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 40 53 29 63 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1032 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
After observing recent trends and coordinating with surrounding
offices, have decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for all of
northeast Kansas this afternoon. Forecast soundings from the
latest runs of the RAP and HRRR are pretty consistent with wind
speeds in the boundary layer being strong enough to mix out the
inversion and force the expansive dry air aloft to the sfc. In
addition, compressional warming ahead of the front across north
central areas lead to increasing temps a few degrees into the
lower 70s. This lowered minimum humidity values to the 18-22
percent range. Winds are already gusting to 35 mph at this time
and will expect this trend to continue until sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Active weather pattern continues, at least in terms of wind shifts
and airmass changes. Light southwest winds this morning increase
and become gusty by late morning and through the afternoon. This
should boost temperatures quickly into the 60s with highs topping
out around 70 in many locations. Next front starts to move in from
Nebraska by the early evening and spreads across most of the area by
midnight. At this time looks like most chances for precipitation
will hold off until after midnight, with a late night/early morning
rain snow mix possible in the far northern counties, while the far
southern ones may see just enough instability for a rumble of
thunder to be possible late tonight. Lows fall to the low 30s north
central to near 40 in the far southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Upper trough swings out early Tuesday morning, with deep moisture
still lacking and forcing exiting. Have kept small chances in the
far east early. Cold air advection on brisk northwest winds keeps
highs in the 40s. Fast northwest flow aloft brings quickly changing
conditions into Thursday however. Cirrus spills in late Tuesday
night as south winds return. Timing of these elements will make low
temperature forecasts a challenge, with daytime temperatures
Wednesday even more challenging with 850mb temps rising nearly 12C
from Tuesdays levels as ECMWF brings south winds around 50kts at
this level. Trended warmer here with highs around 15F warmer than
Tuesday. Rich moisture should again remain lacking with the veered
low-mid level winds ahead of the next wave and surface high pressure
over eastern Texas in the morning. This wave again looks to come
through in pieces as well with guidance showing various areas of
light precip across the region. Have kept precip chances small with
a bit less concern for wintry precip. Pacific nature of this airmass
brings highs back into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Thursday afternoon
into the weekend continues to look dry with mean ridging building
north and east into the central CONUS as temps return to well above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Concerns continue to be winds and wind shifts for this forecast,
with VFR conditions expected for most of the period. Could see
some MVFR cigs approaching late in the forecast. Breezy
southwesterly winds lull this evening before shifting to the
northwest and becoming breezy as front passes. Have added only
VSCH late in the period as confidence in coverage of showers is
low.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1029 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Winds on the increase from the southwest today, with sustained winds
around 20 mph and higher gusts. Recent trends from short term
models show ample dry air being realized at the surface despite
the scattered cloud cover coming in. Humidity values were lowered
in the upper teens to lower 20 percent range. Therefore have
issued a Red Flag Warning in effect at 1 PM through 6 PM.
South winds around 20 mph with gusts near 30 develop by early
Wednesday afternoon. Column appears to supporting minor moisture
advection and keep dewpoints from a sharp daytime fall despite good
mixing depths. Still, with temps expected to be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s, RH values should fall into roughly the 25-35% range and
may create Very High rangeland fire danger. Fire weather
conditions do not present as being of high concern for the
remainder of the forecast at this point.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...67/65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
954 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACRS THE CWA...CURRENTLY
NEARING THE COAST. A VERY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG ALONG THE COAST
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHILE A FEW CLOUDS COULD LINGER
JUST BEHIND IT. OVERALL THOUGH...DRIER AIR ENTERING THE AREA FM
THE NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S...FALLING TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. FCST SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 40S NORTH TO
AROUND 50 SOUTH. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVENING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS OF DECREASING PRECIP AND UPDATED
ZFP TO REMOVE THUNDER AS WELL AS POPS/WX FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL
ZONES. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE FRONT JUST ENTERING N VERNON/RAPIDES
NOW...AFFECTING THE AEX TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THUS...EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR VRB20G35KT & MVFR TO IFR VSBY
CEILING WITH TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VCSH TO
DEAL WITH THE NEXT 3 HOURS UNTIL FROPA...AS THE STRONGEST STORMS
LIKELY TO STAY NE OF AREA AFTER CLEARING C LA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY A WIND DIRECTIONAL FORECAST THRU TUE
AFTERNOON.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND THROUGH EAST TEXAS. FEATURE ADVANCING
SOUTH AT AROUND 20 MPH. RADAR AT THIS TIME SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG FRONT. EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGS FRONT TO A JASPER TO AEX LINE AROUND 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR MOVING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND INTO THE NEAR GULF WATERS TOWARD MID-EVENING. WILL BE
MAINTAINING LOW END RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THEN RETURNS WEDNESDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME AGAIN TO
APPEAR LIMITED AS CAPPING HOLDS AND MOISTURE RETURN
MEAGER. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE THE NORM.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A ROBUST SYSTEM INCOMING IN A
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME OF THE NEW WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
MARINE...A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS EVENING. A
MODERATE BUT BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL AGAIN TREND SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BECOMING OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 45 69 51 75 / 20 0 10 30
LCH 51 70 56 76 / 20 0 10 20
LFT 50 69 53 75 / 30 0 0 20
BPT 51 70 57 77 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ450-452-455.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
943 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT...
SPREADING MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. THIS MIX SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUUE TO DROP FREEZING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE READINGS HAVE SETTLED IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE READINGS CLOSELY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY MUCH
OF THE COLD AIR ERRODING UNTIL AFTER 06Z ACROSS A LARGE PART OF MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT
05Z OVER SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AFT AFTER 06Z FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OVERRIDE WITH SHALLOW COLD DOME OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING
TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS...SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE NOTED BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AS BOUNDARY TEMPS QUICKLY
WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. OVER
CENTRAL INTERIOR AREAS AND THE MOUNTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR RISING TEMP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
AND ALSO FOR QPF. A SWATH OF 1 INCH QPF TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE WHERE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETS UP BEST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
COAST.
HAVE CONTINUED MOST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
DROPPED THE ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR NH AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MAINE SINCE BOUNARY LAYER TEMPS ALREADY WARM
AND ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT AFTER A BRIEF FALL AT THE ONSET
DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FIRST A DRY SLOT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...THEN A STRONG TRAILING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING OVER NH AND IN THE AFTERNOON OVER MAINE. GUSTY WINDS AND A
STRONG DROP IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
TEMPS DROP SHARPLY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR NOON OVER MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE DROPPING SHARPLY IN THE AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CANADIAN HIGH PRES WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING US IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA REINFORCING DENSE COLD
AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM NEAR THE
NOTCHES OF NH TO THE CARRABASSETT VALLEY NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL
ONLY WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FUNNELING SW TOWARDS LEBANON NH.
SOMEWHAT WARMER READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE
FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CAPITALIZE ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR -10 F NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO +10 F ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ITS ENERGY WILL JUST TOUCH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND MAY
BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
COAST. AFTER A COLD START WE WILL WARM INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO HIGH
20S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OFFSHORE
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN FEBRUARY NORMALS (17 FOR CONCORD AND 20 FOR PORTLAND).
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE BRING STABILITY TO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A WARMING TREND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH... AND POSSIBLY APPROACHES 50 DEGREES IN A FEW OF THE WARMER
SPOTS. THIS IS DUE TO A BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE WHICH IS A NEW
FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM. THIS TYPE OF EAST COAST RIDGING IS MORE OF
A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN. IF IT DEVELOPS IT WOULD OPEN UP NEW ENGLAND
TO SW WINDS AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM ORIGINS SUCH AS THE GULF OF
MEXICO... WHICH WOULD ENCOURAGE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
(THUNDERSTORMS) AND OF COURSE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
AND THEN CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR PREVAILS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY WE
MAY HAVE SOME VFR CEILINGS AROUND FL050 WITH -SHSN ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A DOWNGRADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE WATERS AS WINDS DECREASE. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY AT LEAST.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ012>014-020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ007>009.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ027-028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ003>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-
015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
838 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 840PM UPDATE...ONLY SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...RELIED MAINLY ON HIRES GUIDANCE HERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT
LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS
AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN
EARLIER PROGGED...ACRS NRN OH AND LAKE ERIE. WITH THE SFC LOW
DEEPENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LVL JET AND
MIXING AFT FROPA...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 50 MPH.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD
ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. NR TERM GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WED MRNG...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AS THE UPR TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY
RGN THU...AS ANOTHER ADVANCES ACRS THE LWR GREAT LAKES THU NGT.
MDLS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF AND SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS SEEMED THE
MOST REASONABLE ATTM AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED... RESULTING IN A LGT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST LATER THU AND THU NGT...THOUGH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ESP S OF
PIT.
SNOW CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING THE
LATEST SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...SO THE SUPERBLEND WAS HEAVILY
USED TO FLESH OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL BURST OF RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF A MID-CLOUD DECK IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE KPIT AREAS SITES. THE FRONT
IS LAGGING THIS INITIAL RAIN BURST BY ROUGHLY 2 HOURS...AND THE
CIGS SEEM NOT TO DETERIORATE UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WILL FALL TOWARD FL015 MOST PLACES WITH
WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY FROM THE SW-WNW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION SHUTS
OFF OR TURNS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY. FRIES
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY TO BRING MORE DEGRADATIONS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>511.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
634 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 550PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES TO THIS
EVENINGS RAINFALL AND UPDATED TEMPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE. THE UPDATE IN TEMPERATURES DID ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT
LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS
AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN
EARLIER PROGGED...ACRS NRN OH AND LAKE ERIE. WITH THE SFC LOW
DEEPENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LVL JET AND
MIXING AFT FROPA...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 50 MPH.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD
ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. NR TERM GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WED MRNG...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AS THE UPR TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY
RGN THU...AS ANOTHER ADVANCES ACRS THE LWR GREAT LAKES THU NGT.
MDLS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF AND SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS SEEMED THE
MOST REASONABLE ATTM AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED... RESULTING IN A LGT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST LATER THU AND THU NGT...THOUGH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ESP S OF
PIT.
SNOW CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING THE
LATEST SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...SO THE SUPERBLEND WAS HEAVILY
USED TO FLESH OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL BURST OF RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF A MID-CLOUD DECK IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE KPIT AREAS SITES. THE FRONT
IS LAGGING THIS INITIAL RAIN BURST BY ROUGHLY 2 HOURS...AND THE
CIGS SEEM NOT TO DETERIORATE UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CIGS WILL FALL TOWARD FL015 MOST PLACES WITH
WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY FROM THE SW-WNW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION SHUTS
OFF OR TURNS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY. FRIES
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY TO BRING MORE DEGRADATIONS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>511.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
641 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE NRN LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT LOW OVER NE
CANADA. A LARGE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM WI INTO
IL AND LOW PRES OVER ERN IL REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. NW
FLOW LES INTO THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C
WAS LIMITED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 4K FT AND VERY DRY AIR
UPSTREAM FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SHORTER FETCH INTO WRN UPPER
MI...MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV INTO ALGER COUNTY WHERE
ADDITIONAL ACUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
HEATING MAY HELP TO GENERATE MORE DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER
CNTRL UPPER MI WITH STEEPENING 1000-800 MB LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE 500MB LOW ROTATING
ACROSS JAMES BAY AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN -15 AND -17C THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS /ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC/...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LES WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...ASSISTED
BY STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT. A MESO LOW IS PROGGED BY THE NAM/HI-RESWRF
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-E LAKE SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW POTENITAL TO BE ENHANCED MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT MAY SEE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANCE ROTAING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STATES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY. WHILE FCST MODELS ARE
CONSISTANT WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM FAR S ALBERTA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND DOWN THROUGH E CO AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH BECOMES A BIT MORE WASHED OUT/WEAKENS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS WI/IL/IN BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE NEXT
AGRESSIVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NW. THE
MAIN RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WAA...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ON AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C.
THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB GETS STUCK UP IN N CANADA...AND
THE NEXT DEEPENING LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND ACROSS AK ALLOWS
FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OF WARM AIR TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE N PLAINS.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING FROM THE N
CANADAIN LOW. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY. THE DEEP
SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK ACROSS ONTARIO...EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB W-SW WINDS OF 45-
55KTS FROM 18Z SUNDAY-JUST PAST 00Z MONDAY...WHILE 850MB TEMPS RISE
TO A CWA AVERAGE OF 4C.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO REBOUND ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY-TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 7C
NEXT TUESDAY...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WITH A NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
BELOW A 3K-4K FT INVERSION THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...RESULTING IN CIGS
MOSTLY IN THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE AT KCMX/KSAW...THOUGH AT TIMES
CLOUDS WILL EITHER SCATTER OUT OR CIGS WILL RISE JUST ABOVE 3K FT.
AT KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST PERIOD...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WED
AFTN AS ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE W. IF LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...LITTLE VIS RESTRICTION WILL OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
AFTER HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
447 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POWERFUL SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100-150M AND EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW ALOFT BTWN UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND SOME UPR
RDGING OVER THE W PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTO SE ONTARIO.
SHARP COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES CRASHED THRU THE
CWA THIS MRNG...WITH NW WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 50 TO 55 MPH IN THE
STRONG CAA AND AHEAD OF PRES RISE CENTER FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
12Z H85 TEMPS IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT WERE AS LO AS -25 TO
-30C AT INL AND YPL. ALTHOUGH SN AMOUNTS WERE NOT EXCESSIVE...THE
BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS CAUSED NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN OPEN AREAS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS PASSING THRU THE CWA EARLY
THIS AFTN...SO WINDS/BLSN ARE DIMINISHING. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS...WITH PWATS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.05 INCH AT
YPL AND INL /25 PCT OF NORMAL/...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV HAVE CAUSED THE SN SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME SCATTERED AS WELL DESPITE THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR.
THE SN SHOWERS ARE MORE NMRS TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...WHERE LONGER
FETCH ACRS THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS IS MITIGATING THE LARGER
SCALE DRYING. BUT EVEN HERE THE SN SHOWERS ARE LIGHT. UNDER THE
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP...SKIES ARE MOCLR TO THE E OF ARCTIC HI
PRES CENTER BLDG TOWARD SRN MANITOBA.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS/BLSN FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER TO THE E AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR THRU THE NGT...LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN BASE TO 3-
4K FT AGL AND INFLUX OF DRIER UPSTREAM AIR WL LIMIT LES POPS/
INTENSITY EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF THAT CAN DVLP WITH A
WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT. BEST CHC FOR THE HIER LES POPS WL BE
OVER HOUGHTON/ONTONAGON AND COUNTIES AND IN AREAS NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
SLIDING TO THE S OF THE CWA WITH PASS OVHD...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO DROP
BLO ZERO AWAY FM THE LK SUP INFLUENCE. TENDED TO LOWER FCST MINS A
BIT IN THIS AREA CONSDIERING THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS.
TUE...PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL CONTINUE...HOLDING H85 TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -18C. BUT LINGERING LO INVRN BASE AS WELL AS
INCRSG ACYC H925 FLOW/INFLUX OF DRIER LLVL AIR THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT
LES POPS/INTENSITY. MAX TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...NOT FAR FM 20.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN NOAM WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SRLY
FLOW AND WARMING WILL INCREASE SUN INTO MON AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WEST AND A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES.
TUE NIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...WINDS VEERY MORE NRLY BRING HIGHER LES CHANCES TO THE WEST
INTO MARQUETTE COUNYT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER LATE WINTER DAYTIME
MIXING/DRYING ANY LES BANDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED...KEEPING
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR -17C...THE DIMINISHING WIND FIELDS AND DRY AIR OVER THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT LES GOING INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI UNTIL THE LES MOVES MAINLY OFFSHORE THU.
FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO THE SOUTH
OF UPPER MI.
SUN-MON...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS RIDING DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S MON AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTN UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT
BLSN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL...WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR WL ALSO CAUSE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME PERIODS OF VFR CIGS AT CMX...THAT LOCATION
HAS THE BEST SHOT FOR MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WITH A CONTINUING
UPSLOPE WNW WIND COMPONENT. THERE COULD BE SOME -SHSN AS WELL AT CMX
WITH OCNL REDUCED VSBYS...BUT EVEN THERE VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
GIVEN THE IMPACT OF UPSTREAM DRY AIR/LO INVRN BASE ON LES INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
ANY LINGERING NW GALES THIS AFTN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DIMINSH BY EVENING WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING IN FROM THE W. AS THE WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH...SO WILL THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. THEN WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS THRU THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
316 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POWERFUL SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100-150M AND EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW ALOFT BTWN UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND SOME UPR
RDGING OVER THE W PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTO SE ONTARIO.
SHARP COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES CRASHED THRU THE
CWA THIS MRNG...WITH NW WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 50 TO 55 MPH IN THE
STRONG CAA AND AHEAD OF PRES RISE CENTER FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
12Z H85 TEMPS IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT WERE AS LO AS -25 TO
-30C AT INL AND YPL. ALTHOUGH SN AMOUNTS WERE NOT EXCESSIVE...THE
BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS CAUSED NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN OPEN AREAS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS PASSING THRU THE CWA EARLY
THIS AFTN...SO WINDS/BLSN ARE DIMINISHING. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS...WITH PWATS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.05 INCH AT
YPL AND INL /25 PCT OF NORMAL/...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV HAVE CAUSED THE SN SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME SCATTERED AS WELL DESPITE THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR.
THE SN SHOWERS ARE MORE NMRS TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...WHERE LONGER
FETCH ACRS THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS IS MITIGATING THE LARGER
SCALE DRYING. BUT EVEN HERE THE SN SHOWERS ARE LIGHT. UNDER THE
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP...SKIES ARE MOCLR TO THE E OF ARCTIC HI
PRES CENTER BLDG TOWARD SRN MANITOBA.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS/BLSN FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER TO THE E AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR THRU THE NGT...LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN BASE TO 3-
4K FT AGL AND INFLUX OF DRIER UPSTREAM AIR WL LIMIT LES POPS/
INTENSITY EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF THAT CAN DVLP WITH A
WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT. BEST CHC FOR THE HIER LES POPS WL BE
OVER HOUGHTON/ONTONAGON AND COUNTIES AND IN AREAS NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
SLIDING TO THE S OF THE CWA WITH PASS OVHD...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO DROP
BLO ZERO AWAY FM THE LK SUP INFLUENCE. TENDED TO LOWER FCST MINS A
BIT IN THIS AREA CONSDIERING THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS.
TUE...PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL CONTINUE...HOLDING H85 TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -18C. BUT LINGERING LO INVRN BASE AS WELL AS
INCRSG ACYC H925 FLOW/INFLUX OF DRIER LLVL AIR THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT
LES POPS/INTENSITY. MAX TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...NOT FAR FM 20.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...KEEPING VARIOUS CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL STAGES OF A
POTENTIALLY EXTENDED WARM-UP BEGIN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING SE ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP IMPACTS FROM A DEVELOPING
STRONG SFC LOW FOCUSED TO THE SE OF THE CWA. THE LES FORECAST IS A
BIT MORE MUDDLED AS THE THERMO PROFILE BELOW THE 4-5KFT INVERSION
FOR THE EAST HALF SHOWS MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ.
GIVEN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY HIGH-SLR
BUT LOW-QPF SNOWFALL FOR THE FAR NE CWA. SUBSTANTIALLY DRY LOW-
LEVELS UPSTREAM WILL MITIGATE LES ACROSS THE WEST.
LINGERING LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EAST...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF LES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. A SUBTLE EMBEDDED AXIS OF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INVERSION HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND BOOST LES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST ONCE AGAIN. WITH ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL IN PLACE...LOW-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SE ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BACK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY...LEADING TO A GRADUAL END TO LES. AFTER A QUIET DAY
FRIDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER
MI...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH HALF. THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP POSSIBLE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MIXED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTN UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT
BLSN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL...WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR WL ALSO CAUSE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME PERIODS OF VFR CIGS AT CMX...THAT LOCATION
HAS THE BEST SHOT FOR MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WITH A CONTINUING
UPSLOPE WNW WIND COMPONENT. THERE COULD BE SOME -SHSN AS WELL AT CMX
WITH OCNL REDUCED VSBYS...BUT EVEN THERE VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
GIVEN THE IMPACT OF UPSTREAM DRY AIR/LO INVRN BASE ON LES INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
ANY LINGERING NW GALES THIS AFTN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DIMINSH BY EVENING WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING IN FROM THE W. AS THE WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH...SO WILL THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. THEN WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS THRU THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
302 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
WITH TODAYS SNOW SYSTEM E OF THE AREA...ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING SE THRU MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STARVED...BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO A SHORT
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING. SUFFICIENT OVERWATER
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT AS WELL. WHILE MOST
OF WRN AND NRN UPPER MI SHOULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...THE MUCH
BIGGER HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS AND RESULTING BLSN WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE ARCTIC FROPA. STRONG
CAA (AROUND 10C IN 6HR AT 850MB) AND FAST MOVING...IMPRESSIVE PRES
RISES OF 10-12MB/3HR WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT ALIGNED FAVORABLY WITH THE
GRADIENT WIND. RESULT SHOULD BE A 2-3HR PERIOD OF PEAK WIND GUSTS IN
THE 35-50MPH RANGE ACROSS UPPER MI MON MORNING. THE GUSTS TO AROUND
50MPH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OPEN AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD. WINTER WX ADVYS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR. CONSIDERED
ISSUING WARNINGS FOR THE AREAS WITH HIGHEST WINDS...BUT SINCE THERE
IS STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND RAPID FALLING OF THE INVERSION TO
AROUND 4KFT RIGHT AFTER FROPA...THE SNOW INTENSITY/COVERAGE WILL BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WINDS. THAT SAID...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR A FEW HRS MON MORNING DUE
TO VERY POOR VIS IN BLSN. NEXT SHIFT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING HEADLINES FOR SOME
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE BLSN...THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO A
FEW POWER OUTAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH SFC LO PRES OVER NRN
LK MI MOVING E ALONG STALLED FNT THAT PASSED THRU THE AREA LAST NGT.
AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX OVER SE CANADA HAS OVERCOME SOME VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z GRB RAOB TO BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ON THE
SE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...THE SHARP UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DYNAMICS AND UNDER COLDER CLD TOPS SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY HAS
BROUGH A CHANGE TO MAINLY SN. THERE IS AN AREA OF MDT SN OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER H7-75 FGEN. THE PCPN
OVER THE WRN CWA IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE SHARPER FORCING AND
COLDER CLD TOPS ARE SHIFTING TO THE E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLDS. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS
DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA.
AS THE SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/ FGEN EXIT TO THE E
AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE
STEADY SN TO DIMINISH. THE LAST OF THE SET OF CURRENT ADVYS ARE SET
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...AND THIS TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. A TRAILING SFC HI
PRES RDG NOW MOVING INTO MN IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS THE CWA TNGT.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RDG
AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
EXPECTED W WINDS. BUT ANY CLRG WL BE BRIEF AS THE DISTURBANCE NOW
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO
BY 12Z MON. SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/ DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO THE WRN LKS IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MSTR
INFLOW WL BE QUITE LIMITED...THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC ARRIVING WITH THE SFC TROF TOWARD 12Z JUSTIFY
SOME LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATE TNGT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ON MON MRNG AS THE TROF PASSES QUICKLY.
THERE WL BE A QUICK BURST OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LK SUP AS THE TROF PASSES...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IF HEAVIER STRIPE
OF SNOW DEVELOPS AS WRF-ARW/NMM AND NAM SUGGEST.
WINDS AND BLSN/DRSN WILL BE BIGGER ISSUE ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING TO 996-997MB OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TIGHTENS PRESSURE
GRADIENT UP TO 18MB BY 15Z ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR EVIDENCED BY -30C H85 TEMP AT CHURCHHILL
MANITOBA THIS MORNING IS DRAWN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR LEADING TO
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE. NNW-NW WINDS WITHIN MIXED LAYER ARE
UP TO 45-50 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH 40-45 KTS OVER
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC WINDS FM NAM/GEM-
REGIONAL/LOCAL WRF ARE 40 KTS OVER MOST OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
CONTINUED TREND FM MID SHIFT TO RAMP UP WINDS IN THE MORNING AND
SHOW RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY
ADVISORIES UP INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR ZONES...WILL
ISSUE AN SPS. AS EVEN WITH SUB ADVY SNOWFALL...THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS/BLSN WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW/WIND
AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE...LIKELY WILL NEED AN SHORT DURATION
ADVISORY. WINDS MAY ALSO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG LK SUPERIOR AFFECTING COPPER HARBOR AND AREAS
FROM BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT...INCLUDING MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...KEEPING VARIOUS CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL STAGES OF A
POTENTIALLY EXTENDED WARM-UP BEGIN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING SE ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP IMPACTS FROM A DEVELOPING
STRONG SFC LOW FOCUSED TO THE SE OF THE CWA. THE LES FORECAST IS A
BIT MORE MUDDLED AS THE THERMO PROFILE BELOW THE 4-5KFT INVERSION
FOR THE EAST HALF SHOWS MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ.
GIVEN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY HIGH-SLR
BUT LOW-QPF SNOWFALL FOR THE FAR NE CWA. SUBSTANTIALLY DRY LOW-
LEVELS UPSTREAM WILL MITIGATE LES ACROSS THE WEST.
LINGERING LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EAST...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF LES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. A SUBTLE EMBEDDED AXIS OF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INVERSION HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND BOOST LES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST ONCE AGAIN. WITH ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL IN PLACE...LOW-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SE ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BACK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY...LEADING TO A GRADUAL END TO LES. AFTER A QUIET DAY
FRIDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER
MI...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH HALF. THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP POSSIBLE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MIXED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SOME DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO UPPER MI HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT KIWD. MVFR CIGS AT
KCMX/KSAW MAY ALSO SCT OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
HOWEVER...FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW INTO THE AREA
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. AFTER FROPA THIS
MORNING...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40KT AT KIWD/KSAW AND TO
ABOVE 40KT AT KCMX FOR A FEW HRS. COMBINATION OF -SHSN AND
SIGNIFICANT BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KCMX. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KIWD/KSAW MAY SEE BRIEF VLIFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND WITH VERY DRY AIR
HINDERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN WITH VFR BY LATE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THIS AFTN...WINDS OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL
COME DOWN BLO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
WITH A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO GALES TO 35 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND TO
45 KTS ON MON MORNING...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. STORM FORCE GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION...BUT WILL STICK
WITH GALE WARNING ATTM. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE MON
AFTN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OVER QUEBEC AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. WINDS SHOULD STAY BLO 25 KTS MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT
BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH
BLO 20 KTS THU INTO FRI AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
REGION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ002-004-009-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC/JLA
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1158 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
WITH TODAYS SNOW SYSTEM E OF THE AREA...ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING SE THRU MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STARVED...BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO A SHORT
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING. SUFFICIENT OVERWATER
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT AS WELL. WHILE MOST
OF WRN AND NRN UPPER MI SHOULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...THE MUCH
BIGGER HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS AND RESULTING BLSN WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE ARCTIC FROPA. STRONG
CAA (AROUND 10C IN 6HR AT 850MB) AND FAST MOVING...IMPRESSIVE PRES
RISES OF 10-12MB/3HR WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT ALIGNED FAVORABLY WITH THE
GRADIENT WIND. RESULT SHOULD BE A 2-3HR PERIOD OF PEAK WIND GUSTS IN
THE 35-50MPH RANGE ACROSS UPPER MI MON MORNING. THE GUSTS TO AROUND
50MPH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OPEN AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD. WINTER WX ADVYS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR. CONSIDERED
ISSUING WARNINGS FOR THE AREAS WITH HIGHEST WINDS...BUT SINCE THERE
IS STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND RAPID FALLING OF THE INVERSION TO
AROUND 4KFT RIGHT AFTER FROPA...THE SNOW INTENSITY/COVERAGE WILL BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WINDS. THAT SAID...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR A FEW HRS MON MORNING DUE
TO VERY POOR VIS IN BLSN. NEXT SHIFT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING HEADLINES FOR SOME
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE BLSN...THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO A
FEW POWER OUTAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH SFC LO PRES OVER NRN
LK MI MOVING E ALONG STALLED FNT THAT PASSED THRU THE AREA LAST NGT.
AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX OVER SE CANADA HAS OVERCOME SOME VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z GRB RAOB TO BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ON THE
SE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...THE SHARP UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DYNAMICS AND UNDER COLDER CLD TOPS SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY HAS
BROUGH A CHANGE TO MAINLY SN. THERE IS AN AREA OF MDT SN OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER H7-75 FGEN. THE PCPN
OVER THE WRN CWA IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE SHARPER FORCING AND
COLDER CLD TOPS ARE SHIFTING TO THE E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLDS. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS
DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA.
AS THE SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/ FGEN EXIT TO THE E
AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE
STEADY SN TO DIMINISH. THE LAST OF THE SET OF CURRENT ADVYS ARE SET
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...AND THIS TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. A TRAILING SFC HI
PRES RDG NOW MOVING INTO MN IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS THE CWA TNGT.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RDG
AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
EXPECTED W WINDS. BUT ANY CLRG WL BE BRIEF AS THE DISTURBANCE NOW
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO
BY 12Z MON. SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/ DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO THE WRN LKS IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MSTR
INFLOW WL BE QUITE LIMITED...THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC ARRIVING WITH THE SFC TROF TOWARD 12Z JUSTIFY
SOME LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATE TNGT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ON MON MRNG AS THE TROF PASSES QUICKLY.
THERE WL BE A QUICK BURST OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LK SUP AS THE TROF PASSES...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IF HEAVIER STRIPE
OF SNOW DEVELOPS AS WRF-ARW/NMM AND NAM SUGGEST.
WINDS AND BLSN/DRSN WILL BE BIGGER ISSUE ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING TO 996-997MB OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TIGHTENS PRESSURE
GRADIENT UP TO 18MB BY 15Z ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR EVIDENCED BY -30C H85 TEMP AT CHURCHHILL
MANITOBA THIS MORNING IS DRAWN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR LEADING TO
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE. NNW-NW WINDS WITHIN MIXED LAYER ARE
UP TO 45-50 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH 40-45 KTS OVER
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC WINDS FM NAM/GEM-
REGIONAL/LOCAL WRF ARE 40 KTS OVER MOST OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
CONTINUED TREND FM MID SHIFT TO RAMP UP WINDS IN THE MORNING AND
SHOW RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY
ADVISORIES UP INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR ZONES...WILL
ISSUE AN SPS. AS EVEN WITH SUB ADVY SNOWFALL...THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS/BLSN WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW/WIND
AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE...LIKELY WILL NEED AN SHORT DURATION
ADVISORY. WINDS MAY ALSO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG LK SUPERIOR AFFECTING COPPER HARBOR AND AREAS
FROM BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT...INCLUDING MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
DESPITE H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -20C...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND MONDAY MORNING SYSTEM SHOULD PUT SIGNIFICANT CRIMP ON LES
CHANCES LATER MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. KEPT SCT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NW WIND AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH OF EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH ALL
LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN DGZ...SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
WINDS WILL RAMP DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY MON EVENING SO ANY BLSN
ISSUES SHOULD WANE BY THAT TIME. TEMPS INLAND OVER WEST AND CENTRAL
MON NIGHT MAY TRY TO DIP BLO ZERO...ESPECIALLY FOR WHERE WINDS TRY
TO DECOUPLE. STILL APPEARS SYSTEM FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT REMAINS WELL TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/IL/LOWER MICHIGAN.
LIGHT LES WILL CONTINUE OFF LK SUPERIOR IN NW-N WIND AREAS TO EAST
OF MARQUETTE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMS AS INVERSIONS
STAY BLO 5KFT.
WED INTO WED NIGHT...NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE MEAN
TROUGHING. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK AS TIGHT AS IT DID YDY
BUT A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR BY WED NIGHT.
EXPECT THE LES TO INCREASE FOR A TIME WED INTO WED NIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. MODELS DIFFER ON WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE COLD WITH GFS PUSHING SUB -20C H85 TEMPS OVER ALL OF
UPR MICHIGAN WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE GLANCING BLOW OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND FAR EASTERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THU SO KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH LES DIMINISHING. ANOTHER SUB
ZERO NIGHT COULD OCCUR THU NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR.
STILL LOOKS LIKE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MAY BE SOME LGT SNOW AT TIMES DUE TO SHORTWAVES
WORKING THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SOME DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO UPPER MI HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT KIWD. MVFR CIGS AT
KCMX/KSAW MAY ALSO SCT OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
HOWEVER...FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW INTO THE AREA
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. AFTER FROPA THIS
MORNING...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40KT AT KIWD/KSAW AND TO
ABOVE 40KT AT KCMX FOR A FEW HRS. COMBINATION OF -SHSN AND
SIGNIFICANT BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KCMX. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KIWD/KSAW MAY SEE BRIEF VLIFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND WITH VERY DRY AIR
HINDERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN WITH VFR BY LATE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THIS AFTN...WINDS OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL
COME DOWN BLO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
WITH A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO GALES TO 35 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND TO
45 KTS ON MON MORNING...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. STORM FORCE GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION...BUT WILL STICK
WITH GALE WARNING ATTM. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE MON
AFTN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OVER QUEBEC AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. WINDS SHOULD STAY BLO 25 KTS MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT
BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH
BLO 20 KTS THU INTO FRI AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
REGION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 AM EST
/10 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC/JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1231 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
*1130 AM TAF ISSUANCE DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM*
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS A
RESULT...THE BLOWING SNOW THAT HAS BEEN SO PREVALENT THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. OPEN AREAS WILL STILL SEE THE MOST
BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPROVING
TREND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM LEAD TO A BURST OF 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...MOVING EVEN FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
WITH EVEN THE HRRR STRUGGLING TO MATCH THE SPEED OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOWERS. PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY RISING BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEAR
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THIS CLEARING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH SOME STRATOCU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLDER
TODAY AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE TEENS FARTHER
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN NEAR-CALM CONDITIONS AND TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...PERHAPS THE USUAL COLD SPOTS
DIPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...COOL FOR THE START
OF MARCH.
THE LEAP DAY MORNING SNOW FORECAST HAS WORKED OUT VERY WELL WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING TO SPEED UP THE TIMING
FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. WILL LIKELY LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
RIDE UNTIL THEIR EXPIRATION AS BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...ONLY THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS ASOS HAS
REPORTED BLSN BUT GIVEN HOW RARE AUTOMATED SENSORS REPORT THESE
CONDITIONS AM NOT ENTIRELY SURPRISED. GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT FEW SITES WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RAP/HRRR
SOUNDINGS. THESE GUSTIER WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LUCKILY NOT MUCH SNOW
HAS FALLEN...BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW TO BECOME A TRAVEL CONCERN. EARLIER FORECASTS WERE A BIT MORE
BULLISH ON LAKE EFFECT INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF THIS IDEA GIVEN THE CLEARING DRIVING SOUTH INDICATING THE
DRY AIRMASS MOVING. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LATE
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
IN THE NORTH...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO CHANGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO MN/WI FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH STRONG WAA...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MYRIAD
PRECIPITATION TYPES...WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF TRANSITION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH 30S
TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE THE SATURDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT...IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY INTO MONDAY. THE 6 TO 10 AND
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CPC CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR WILL BE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -5 20 3 25 / 0 0 0 10
INL -15 18 -6 19 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 0 22 9 29 / 0 0 0 10
HYR -4 23 2 27 / 0 0 0 10
ASX -2 22 5 24 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
754 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS A
RESULT...THE BLOWING SNOW THAT HAS BEEN SO PREVALENT THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. OPEN AREAS WILL STILL SEE THE MOST
BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPROVING
TREND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM LEAD TO A BURST OF 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...MOVING EVEN FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
WITH EVEN THE HRRR STRUGGLING TO MATCH THE SPEED OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOWERS. PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY RISING BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEAR
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THIS CLEARING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH SOME STRATOCU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLDER
TODAY AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE TEENS FARTHER
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN NEAR-CALM CONDITIONS AND TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...PERHAPS THE USUAL COLD SPOTS
DIPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...COOL FOR THE START
OF MARCH.
THE LEAP DAY MORNING SNOW FORECAST HAS WORKED OUT VERY WELL WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING TO SPEED UP THE TIMING
FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. WILL LIKELY LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
RIDE UNTIL THEIR EXPIRATION AS BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...ONLY THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS ASOS HAS
REPORTED BLSN BUT GIVEN HOW RARE AUTOMATED SENSORS REPORT THESE
CONDITIONS AM NOT ENTIRELY SURPRISED. GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT FEW SITES WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RAP/HRRR
SOUNDINGS. THESE GUSTIER WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LUCKILY NOT MUCH SNOW
HAS FALLEN...BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW TO BECOME A TRAVEL CONCERN. EARLIER FORECASTS WERE A BIT MORE
BULLISH ON LAKE EFFECT INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF THIS IDEA GIVEN THE CLEARING DRIVING SOUTH INDICATING THE
DRY AIRMASS MOVING. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LATE
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
IN THE NORTH...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO CHANGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO MN/WI FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH STRONG WAA...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MYRIAD
PRECIPITATION TYPES...WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF TRANSITION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH 30S
TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE THE SATURDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT...IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY INTO MONDAY. THE 6 TO 10 AND
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CPC CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
THE STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR AS
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY. SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
THOSE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 14 -5 20 3 / 0 0 0 0
INL 5 -15 18 -6 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 16 0 22 9 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 20 -4 23 2 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 18 -2 22 5 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
616 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM LEAD TO A BURST OF 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...MOVING EVEN FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
WITH EVEN THE HRRR STRUGGLING TO MATCH THE SPEED OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOWERS. PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY RISING BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEAR
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THIS CLEARING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH SOME STRATOCU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLDER
TODAY AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE TEENS FARTHER
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN NEAR-CALM CONDITIONS AND TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...PERHAPS THE USUAL COLD SPOTS
DIPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...COOL FOR THE START
OF MARCH.
THE LEAP DAY MORNING SNOW FORECAST HAS WORKED OUT VERY WELL WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING TO SPEED UP THE TIMING
FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. WILL LIKELY LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
RIDE UNTIL THEIR EXPIRATION AS BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...ONLY THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS ASOS HAS
REPORTED BLSN BUT GIVEN HOW RARE AUTOMATED SENSORS REPORT THESE
CONDITIONS AM NOT ENTIRELY SURPRISED. GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT FEW SITES WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RAP/HRRR
SOUNDINGS. THESE GUSTIER WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LUCKILY NOT MUCH SNOW
HAS FALLEN...BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW TO BECOME A TRAVEL CONCERN. EARLIER FORECASTS WERE A BIT MORE
BULLISH ON LAKE EFFECT INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF THIS IDEA GIVEN THE CLEARING DRIVING SOUTH INDICATING THE
DRY AIRMASS MOVING. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LATE
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
IN THE NORTH...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO CHANGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO MN/WI FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH STRONG WAA...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MYRIAD
PRECIPITATION TYPES...WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF TRANSITION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH 30S
TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE THE SATURDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT...IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY INTO MONDAY. THE 6 TO 10 AND
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CPC CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
THE STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR AS
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY. SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
THOSE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 -5 20 3 / 0 0 0 0
INL 6 -15 18 -6 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 16 0 22 9 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 20 -4 23 2 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 18 -2 22 5 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ001>004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM LEAD TO A BURST OF 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...MOVING EVEN FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
WITH EVEN THE HRRR STRUGGLING TO MATCH THE SPEED OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOWERS. PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY RISING BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEAR
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THIS CLEARING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH SOME STRATOCU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COLDER
TODAY AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE TEENS FARTHER
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN NEAR-CALM CONDITIONS AND TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...PERHAPS THE USUAL COLD SPOTS
DIPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...COOL FOR THE START
OF MARCH.
THE LEAP DAY MORNING SNOW FORECAST HAS WORKED OUT VERY WELL WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING TO SPEED UP THE TIMING
FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. WILL LIKELY LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
RIDE UNTIL THEIR EXPIRATION AS BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...ONLY THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS ASOS HAS
REPORTED BLSN BUT GIVEN HOW RARE AUTOMATED SENSORS REPORT THESE
CONDITIONS AM NOT ENTIRELY SURPRISED. GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT FEW SITES WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RAP/HRRR
SOUNDINGS. THESE GUSTIER WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LUCKILY NOT MUCH SNOW
HAS FALLEN...BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW TO BECOME A TRAVEL CONCERN. EARLIER FORECASTS WERE A BIT MORE
BULLISH ON LAKE EFFECT INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF THIS IDEA GIVEN THE CLEARING DRIVING SOUTH INDICATING THE
DRY AIRMASS MOVING. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LATE
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
IN THE NORTH...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO CHANGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO MN/WI FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH STRONG WAA...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MYRIAD
PRECIPITATION TYPES...WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF TRANSITION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH 30S
TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE THE SATURDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT...IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY INTO MONDAY. THE 6 TO 10 AND
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CPC CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A
QUARTER MILE FOR UP TO A COUPLE HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
MARKEDLY AS THEY SWITCH TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS INTO THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS FOR A TIME DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND VISIBILITIES WILL THEN IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 -5 20 3 / 0 0 0 0
INL 6 -15 18 -6 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 16 0 22 9 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 20 -4 23 2 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 18 -2 22 5 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ001>004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
247 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS MEASURED A 140M HEIGHT FALL AT
GREAT FALLS WHILE A MEASURED 140KT 300MB JET WAS DIGGING UNDER THE
WAVE. A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW WITHIN
A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. BOTH THE RAP AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
INDICATE PCPN DEVELOPING AROUND 03Z IN OUR FAR NORTH...THEN
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY 09Z. VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
COULD DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
SHORT LIVED. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
NORTH WITH A TRACE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 30.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATE TUESDAY AND DROP TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50S BY
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON TIMING
OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES WITH THE GFS BEING A MUCH FASTER
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH WARMER WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUE A RA/SN MIX IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON IT. IN ANY
CASE...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THOUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF PCPN TO OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. A WARMING
TREND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING A DEEP TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANY LEAD SHORTWAVES
THAT MAY EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS SYSTEM
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL BE DAY
7...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE ADDED
A THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN. SFC CDFNT WILL BE
DROPPING SWD THROUGH KOMA/KLNK BY MID AFTN AND IS ALREADY THROUGH
KOFK AS OF 18Z SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND BECOMING
GUSTY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTN. QUICK MVG STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A QUICK SHOT OF SOME -SN
AT KOFK/KOMA AND HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING GROUP AT THESE
LOCATIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VISBY. SC DECK SHOULD HANG ON AT ALL
3 TAF SITES INTO TUE MRNG AFTR ANY PRECIP DOES END.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ088>093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
519 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL A
DRAW A COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND TRACK NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR MIXED
WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 MPH RECORDED IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUITE ABRUPTLY
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SPEAKING OF THE COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBS/RADAR SHOW A WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY NEAR TORONTO AT 5 PM. THIS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE
ACROSS BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AROUND 7 PM...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA
9-10 PM. RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BUT SOLID LINE...SO WE WILL UP TO
LIKELY POPS...WITH A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. IN
TERMS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...THE HRRR DEPICTS THIS QUITE WELL.
A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL CROSS EASTERN QUEBEC WHILE THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA...TAKING ANY
MIXED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKES...A VERY LOW CAP (5K FT) AND A DRY SYNOPTIC AIRMASS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY LEGITIMATE LAKE RESPONSE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE DOWN THE VALLEY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND GAIN
STRENGTH JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER WITH A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT WINTER STORM EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW WIDE RANGE WITH 20S ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THE
INTERVENING AREA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
AND A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... WITH MOST 00Z AND ESPECIALLY 12Z GUIDANCE TODAY KEEPING
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z
GEFS/EC AS WELL AS THE 12Z GFS/EC/GEM ARE IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY
EVENING TO EASTERN NY / SOUTHWEST VT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 06Z
AND 12Z NAM WAS A NOTABLE OUTLIER IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...
BEING A BIT TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH COMPARED TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THUS THIS FORECAST SHIES AWAY FROM INCLUDING NAM
DATA... AND FOCUSES ON THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... A
WARM NOSE OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL SURGE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NY AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WHILE LOCATIONS
JUST NORTH OF THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
COLUMN. THE SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
NOTED ABOVE WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INCLUDING MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY) ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM... AND THUS STAYING MOSTLY SNOW. THUS
HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT P-TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. THE
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF A
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER LINE... WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW... BUT PERHAPS A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. FARTHER SOUTH YET...
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER... PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE ENTIRELY OVER TO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FINISHING AS SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
FROM ABOUT THE TUG HILL NORTH. THE TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO OSWEGO COUNTY... WITH NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE
MORE SNOW... WHILE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY SEE MORE SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WITH MUCH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
ACROSS TO MONROE COUNTY AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN AN ALL SNOW EVENT. LOCATIONS IN THE ALL
SNOW SIDE OF THE STORM WILL SEE A HEAVY WET SYNOPTIC SNOW. USING
CONSENSUS QPF AND A BEST BLEND OF SNOW RATIO TECHNIQUES... THE ALL
SNOW AREAS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT A 12 TO 1 TO 14 TO 1 RATIO WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND TWO THIRDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. FORECAST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS TO
ROCHESTER RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER
NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY... FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES FROM ABOUT THE TUG HILL NORTH
TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONFIDENCE IN A
SWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMES FROM THE CIPS ANALOGS.
THE MEAN AND MEDIAN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE ANALOGS ALSO SHOWED AN
UPWARD TREND FROM THE 00Z TO THE 12Z RUN TODAY WITH AN IMPROVING
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. LOOKING THROUGH SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS IN THE ANALOG REVEALS THAT 6 TO 10 INCHES IS RIGHT WITHIN THE
REALM OF REASONABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR A LOW OF THIS TRACK AND
SPEED. AGAIN... LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE WATCH AREA ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... WHILE AREAS ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE SMALL CHANGES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW CAN HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE P-TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. ONCE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRANSITION LINE INCREASES... WILL
LIKELY NEED A SWATH OF COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING... SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE RESPONSE
SHOULD WEAKEN BY THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND
OVERALL INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND DRIER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C... LOWS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS... WITH NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON THURSDAY... WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY... AND SOME LOWER 20S IN WESTERN NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE CORE OF
SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT THIS SYSTEM BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TO OUR SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR FINGER LAKES ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY /WHICH CONTINUES TO BE COVERED IN THE FORECAST
WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/...BY AND LARGE OUR REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH...WITH
OUR AIRMASS LIKELY TOO DRY AND SHEARED TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
LATER ON IN THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM COULD
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY
HAPPEN. AS SUCH...WILL ELECT TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR NOW...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
FINALLY...AND ESPECIALLY FOR ALL THOSE WHO MAY BE TIRING OF WINTER...
LOOKING OUT BEYOND THE END OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO NEXT WEEK IT
APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF MILDER...AND POSSIBLY SPRINGLIKE WEATHER
MAY BE IN THE OFFING AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST...SOMETHING THAT BOTH GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS NOW. TIME WILL ONLY
TELL OF COURSE...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A PATTERN CHANGE
MAY WELL BE ON THE WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CIGS NEAR THE 3K FT LEVEL AND MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ITS PASSAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER 03Z WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT
DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS CLOUD
COVER. MEANWHILE...THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WILL NOTABLY
SUBSIDE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 00Z
AT IAG/BUF/ART...AND AN HOUR OR TWO LATER AT JHW/ROC.
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE WINTRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY BUT THEN A RETURN OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE DAY DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SNOW...RAIN
AND MIXED PCPN LATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IFR IN SNOW...RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.
COMMERCIAL DELAYS LIKELY AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ONE EXITING CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER BY THE EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
FOUND ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 45 KNOTS. MEANWHILE HIGH
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN OVER BOTH LAKES DURING THE COURSE
OF TUESDAY AS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD PLACE THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
UNUSUAL NORTHEAST GALES WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LARGE STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>003-
010>012-019-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LOZ030-042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ063>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH/APFFEL
MARINE...RSH/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
445 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN TURN BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE FIRST DAY OF
MARCH. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE NEAR-TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THIS EVENING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS A RISK OF SHORT-LIVED SNOW SQUALLS PARTICULARLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
YIELDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY
THIS EVENING. WHILE WEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 15
MPH TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE AND VEER TO THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SNOW SQUALLS
ALL DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MI/WI, AND SEE LITTLE COMPELLING REASON
TO BELIEVE SNOW SQUALLS WILL NOT CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE. OUR LOCALLY-RUN SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES ARE
QUITE HIGH WITH SHALLOW CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 100-120 J/KG
FOCUSED FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 00-04Z. COINCIDENT WITH THESE IS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING DRIVEN BY STRONG 3-HOURLY
PRESSURE RISES. WHILE THESE EVENTS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...ALL THAT FALLS IN ABOUT
30 MINUTES OR LESS LEADING TO POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS. IT APPEARS
THAT SNOW SQUALLS WILL MISS OUT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE, INSTEAD
ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN 6-8 PM,THE ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 8-10 PM, AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND BTV-4 KM ALL LOSE THE SQUALLS AS THEY
ADVANCE EAST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES, SO POPS THEN DECREASE MARKEDLY
AFTER 06Z. I`VE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO RAISE
AWARENESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS, AS WELL A FLASH
FREEZE AS TEMPS FALL FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER TEENS OVERNIGHT
UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
COLDER BUT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. 925 MB
TEMPS START ON TUESDAY AROUND -16 TO -18C, AND THEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY PUSHES THESE VALUES BACK TO -8 TO -12C. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RUN FROM THE LOW
20S NORTH, MID/UPPER 20SFOR CENTRAL VT/ADIRONDACKS, TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 PM EST MONDAY...STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTER STORM TO THE AREA...STARTING AS SNOW IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTHEASTERN VT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL
KEEP COLDER NE FLOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEREFORE KEEP
PRECIP AS ALL SNOW...ALSO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
VT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VT LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA MIX. HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED 06Z-12Z
WED...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND 0.75 AND SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE ST LAWRENCE. AS FOR THE WARM
NOSE...EXPECT MIXED PRECIP TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
AS THE SURFACE LOW SWINGS NE INTO MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 45-60KTS AT 850 WILL BE REPLACED BY NW WINDS.
AS WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT NW, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
IN...TRANSITIONING PRECIP BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED.
STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5-10 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ZONES ACROSS VT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR FZRA
WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL VT WITH ICE AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO 20S OCCURRING EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND WARMING TOWARDS
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, MAX TEMPERATURES OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY AND COOL IN THE NW FLOW BY LATE MORNING/MID DAY.
THE MORNING MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN ZONES
AND 20S IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WED NT WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS STORM. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY
DUE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AND TREND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
TREND VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-
DURATION LIFR VISIBILITY SNOW SQUALLS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOST LIKELY TAFS TO BE AFFECTED BY SNOW SQUALLS WOULD BE
MSS, SLK AND PBG...PERHAPS INTO BTV DURING THE 00-04Z TIME FRAME,
WITH MORE OF AN IFR SNOW SHOWER RISK FOR MPV. EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD (GENERALLY LESS THAN AN HOUR) OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SQUALLS. CLEARING SHOULD BE RATHER RAPID
AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 30 KTS)
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HRS. IMPROVEMENT TO WIND SPEEDS
MORE LIKELY INTO TUESDAY AM.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 12Z-18Z WED, BECOMING GUSTY NORTHWEST 00Z-06Z
THU.
06Z THU ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
306 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN TURN BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE FIRST DAY OF
MARCH. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE NEAR-TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THIS EVENING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS A RISK OF SHORT-LIVED SNOW SQUALLS PARTICULARLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
YIELDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY
THIS EVENING. WHILE WEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 15
MPH TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE AND VEER TO THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SNOW SQUALLS
ALL DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MI/WI, AND SEE LITTLE COMPELLING REASON
TO BELIEVE SNOW SQUALLS WILL NOT CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE. OUR LOCALLY-RUN SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES ARE
QUITE HIGH WITH SHALLOW CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 100-120 J/KG
FOCUSED FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 00-04Z. COINCIDENT WITH THESE IS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING DRIVEN BY STRONG 3-HOURLY
PRESSURE RISES. WHILE THESE EVENTS DON`T PRODUCE MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...ALL THAT FALLS IN ABOUT
30 MINUTES OR LESS LEADING TO POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS. IT APPEARS
THAT SNOW SQUALLS WILL MISS OUT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE, INSTEAD
ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN 6-8 PM,THE ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 8-10 PM, AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND BTV-4 KM ALL LOSE THE SQUALLS AS THEY
ADVANCE EAST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES, SO POPS THEN DECREASE MARKEDLY
AFTER 06Z. I`VE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO RAISE
AWARENESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS, AS WELL A FLASH
FREEZE AS TEMPS FALL FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER TEENS OVERNIGHT
UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
COLDER BUT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. 925 MB
TEMPS START ON TUESDAY AROUND -16 TO -18C, AND THEN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY PUSHES THESE VALUES BACK TO -8 TO -12C. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RUN FROM THE LOW
20S NORTH, MID/UPPER 20SFOR CENTRAL VT/ADIRONDACKS, TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
AND BE OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECTING SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIKELY. A WINTER STORM
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TODAY IF
LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO BE
ALL SNOW THERE. FURTHER EAST...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD TO VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO WESTERN MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECTING SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S. ECMWF
MODEL HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PREVENT A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
MOVING IT EAST OUT TO SEA. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...AS ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
TREND VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-
DURATION LIFR VISIBILITY SNOW SQUALLS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOST LIKELY TAFS TO BE AFFECTED BY SNOW SQUALLS WOULD BE
MSS, SLK AND PBG...PERHAPS INTO BTV DURING THE 00-04Z TIME FRAME,
WITH MORE OF AN IFR SNOW SHOWER RISK FOR MPV. EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD (GENERALLY LESS THAN AN HOUR) OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SQUALLS. CLEARING SHOULD BE RATHER RAPID
AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 30 KTS)
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HRS. IMPROVEMENT TO WIND SPEEDS
MORE LIKELY INTO TUESDAY AM.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 12Z-18Z WED, BECOMING GUSTY NORTHWEST 00Z-06Z
THU.
06Z THU ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
746 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID-WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...
ALTOCU CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 20-25KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE A BIT BY SUNSET....THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY
TIGHTEN THIS EVENING...SO AT LEAST SPORADIC GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY
BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE. RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE A COUPLE
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND CONVECTION...THOUGH THE BEST FORCING AND BRUNT
OF THE NARROW/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD HIT THE TRIAD AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WITHIN THE LINE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRONG FGEN AND A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE (HIGHEST IN
THE NAM)...WHILE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SHOULD BE COMMON GIVEN A 50-
60KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE LINE SHOULD LOSE A LITTLE STEAM AS IT MOVES
EAST AND THE INITIAL PUNCH OF DCVA LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH...REACHING
THE TRIANGLE BY AROUND 2AM AND EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 5AM
AND 7AM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A QUARTER INCH
OF QPF IN THE CORE OF THE SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SO TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL
PAST SUNRISE BUT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 38-53 RANGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
LEVEL OUT BY LATE MORNING AND RISE A LITTLE INT HE AFTERNOON. A
CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 46-55 RANGE. WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN THE MORNING...AROUND 20KT...AND WEAKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
HOWEVER...THICKNESSES DIPPING TO NEAR 1290M AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD TIMING CONSENSUS...AND THE
GFS HAS TRENDED ITS MILLER TYPE-B SURFACE EVOLUTION TOWARDS A
STRONGER...SOUTHERLY COASTAL LOW BECOMING DOMINANT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH RESEMBLES THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION AS THE SYSTEM IS
PULLING OFFSHORE BY 12Z.
THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE SETS UP MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LIMITED BY WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GMEX AND GULF STATES. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN AN INCREASING TREND FROM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WHERE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED...TO A LIKELY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE CONCURRENT WITH THE RAPID COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
LAGGING THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MAKE A CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH
ANY SNOW RATHER DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AS THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE
EITHER VERY LIGHT OR MORE LIKELY...ENDING BY THE TIME THE LOWEST
LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH POPS ENDING IN THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO
GRASSY OR OTHER RAISED SURFACES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 50...WITH MINS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
FAST TRANSITIONAL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A DRY CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT TO REINFORCE
THE COOL AIR OVER THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S.
AS WE MAINTAIN OUR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH ITS AXIS ALIGNED
UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...TO THE LOW AND MID 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING... AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 TO 35 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
AND CIGS AND VISBYS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. IN ADDITION... WE SHOULD
SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH GUSTS OF
UP TO 25 KTS OR SO. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS... WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
AS EXPECTED...SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND NOW
HAS REACHED THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED POPS AS THE SNOW
HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THE NORTHERN
VALLEY HAS HAD SOME REPORTS OF ZERO VISIBILITY WITH BLOWING
SNOW...ALTHOUGH VIS AT THE AWOS STATIONS HAS BEEN SLOWLY COMING UP
IN SOME SPOTS. GIVEN THE SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND NOT UPGRADE AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
SNOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH WEB
CAMS AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME FAIRLY HEAVY ACCUMULATION. THERE
HAS EVEN BEEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE UP BY LANGDON. SPC MESO PAGE
SHOWS VERY STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH NEGATIVE EPV VALUES. RAP AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND EPV MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GIVEN THE QUICK SHOT
OF SNOW THINK THAT 1 TO 2 WITH MAYBE SOME SPOTS UP TO 3 LOOK GOOD
FOR AMOUNTS. THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP AND SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS TIGHTER AROUND 05 TO 06Z.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS RIGHT
AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AS THE BOUNDARY GOES
THROUGH MAY TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING. AT THIS POINT WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF POPS COMING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL WELL UP IN
CANADA. BUT OTHERWISE KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF LIGHT SNOW COMING
IN AND THEN WINDS PICKING UP. THE 22Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP
WERE GOING MORE BULLISH WITH SNOW...PUTTING AROUND 4 INCHES FROM
GRAFTON TO JUST NORTH OF BEMIDJI. NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP TOTALLY
ON BOARD WITH THAT MUCH SNOW...BUT DID INCREASE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
JUST A LITTLE. WINDS WILL DEFINITELY HOWL AS A THE ARCTIC FRONT
COMES SCREAMING DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF BLOWING OF THE SNOW...SO WILL KEEP
OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IS WHAT HEADLINE FOR ARCTIC BOUNDARY
PLUNGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
CAA AND IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET WILL INDUCE MIXING
TO NEAR 900MB WITH PREFERRED MAVMOS GUIDANCE BRINGING 30KTS
SUSTAINED TO THE VALLEY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION
REMAINS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ONLY SNOWPACK
REMAINING IS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DVL BSN AND INTO NW...RED
RIVER VALLEY FLOOR APPEARS SNOW FREE WITHIN 20 TO 30 MILES OF THE
BORDER. MODEL SUITE DOES SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH AROUND AND INCH
TO UP TO 2 OF NEW SNOW ALONG A LINE FROM LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS
TO PARK RAPIDS AND AREAS NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SHORT
WNTR WX ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEVERELY REDUCED VSBYS WHEN THE
SNOW IS FALLING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ALSO FALL TO NEAR 25 BELOW
BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLING INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FRINGES. GIVEN SUN ANGLE MAX TEMPS MAY RECOVER SOME IN
SNOW FREE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEGATIVE TEENS IN NW
MN WITH DEEPER SNOW PACK TO NEAR 10 IN THE S RRV BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCED BY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL SKIRT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS NOT AS COLD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS SNOW PACK
REMAINS ONLY IN THE DVL BSN AND NW MN MINUS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
PROPER. WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALLOFF A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN INTO THU AND
THU NIGHT. BY THIS POINT IT APPEARS MORE OF ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
SET UP. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS ON THU STILL LOOK COOL BUT WILL THEN
WARM UP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTION MAY BE EXACTLY
HOW MUCH WARMING...AND WITH LITTLE SNOW COVER TEMPTATION IS TO BUMP
UP TEMPS A LITTLE OVER GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THRU THE FA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHICH COULD SPREAD A LITTLE PCPN INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
IT HAS BEEN THE KIND OF NIGHT WHEN TAFS ISSUED 20 MINUTES AGO ARE
ALREADY FLAGGING FOR DIFFERENCES IN CURRENT CONDITIONS. VIS HAS
BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH...AND
WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS GUSTING ABOVE 35 CREATING BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN DOWN TO BELOW
1SM AT TIMES NORTH OF KGFK BUT THE TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT THE
1-2SM OR HIGHER. ALL TAF SITES HAVE SEEN THE COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH EXCEPT KFAR WHICH SHOULD SEE VIS GO DOWN AND WINDS SHIFT
AROUND BY 07Z OR SO. SHOULD SEE VIS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE SNOW
ENDS AND WINDS START TO DIMINISH. THINK WE SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR
BY MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO COME DOWN BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-015-
016-026-027-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
013>017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...GODON
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
707 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY TRACK EAST
TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST WEST SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND AS OF 7PM
WITH THE WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTHEAST ALONG THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES. FOR EXAMPLE LAST HOUR...IT WAS 59 NEAR WARREN AT
KYNG...BUT ONLY 34 AT ASHTABULA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR
WARREN AND THEN MORE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT.
PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY. THERE HAVE
BEEN NO REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND IF IT WERE TO OCCUR DURING
THE TRANSITION...IT LIKELY WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT WITH A WARM WET
GROUND. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO PULL OUT WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE. LATEST HRRR TAKES PRECIP TO THE EASTERN
BORDER BY MIDNIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
WILL BE SOME LAKE ASSISTED SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
H8 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL. TOLEDO/NW OH TO SEE AN INCH OR
SO...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT.
LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES IN GEAUGA COUNTY AND NW
PA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ONLY TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY EVENING
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL JUST BE EXITING TO THE EAST IN THE 12-14Z
WINDOW BUT EXPECT LOW LEVELS TO COOL ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
SNOWBELT. OTHERWISE A COOLER DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO
THE 20S.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FOR THURSDAY AS THE ENERGY OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MOVES ONSHORE AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL PRETTY FAR TO
THE SOUTH BUT LIFT RAMPS UP ALONG THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD
SO STILL EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
MORNING. EVEN THE DRIER ECMWF SHOWS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 2-4
INCHES FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
ADJUSTMENTS ARE STILL LIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED
WELL YET BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO 34-35. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD
MIX WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS FRIDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...MIXING
WITH OR TURNING TO RAIN SATURDAY. THIS PULLS OUT FOR SUNDAY. MODELS
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS IN VERY DRY AIR WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST HALF. BOTH MODELS BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
SO WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS. TEMPS BEGIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
MOVING ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MID WEEK LOOKS QUITE MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IF NOT HIGHER GIVEN ANY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST WEST OF KCLE AND MOVING EAST AT A GOOD
CLIP. SNOW CONTINUES AT KTOL BUT SHOULD END WITHIN THE HOUR. IT IS
POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL SEE THE PRECIP END SHORTLY
AFTER A TRANSITION TO SNOW. IT WILL BE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE
THE ENTIRE AREA IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. AS IT STANDS WILL TRY TO
DRY OUT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
SOME SNOW WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER FROM KCLE EAST. CIGS ALREADY
DIPPING TO IFR BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT CIGS WILL BE IMPROVING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 12Z IN THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BECOME W TO NW BEHIND. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. ALL
IN ALL IT WILL BE A MESSY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY EAST. NON VFR POSSIBLE
AGAIN IN SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE LAKE AS IT REACHES NORTH CENTRAL PA AND NEW YORK THIS EVENING.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE BUT A FEW MID 30KNOT GUSTS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE LOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WNW ABOUT 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS OR SO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BUT DECREASE
OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
602 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TO THE PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO MAINE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND COULD
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. THE TEMP PROFILE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUCH THAT THE PRECIP COULD COME AS EITHER SNOW...RAIN
OR FZRA OR A MIX OF THEM. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC OF STAYING DRY SO DON`T SEE ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THERE.
THE BEST CHC FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE SNOWBELT THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LUCKILY...TEMPS SHOULD TRY
AND STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT THRU MIDNIGHT TO PREVENT THE
THREAT OF FZRA. SINCE THE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEE NO REASON TO ISSUE
ANY ADVISORIES.
18Z MAV DATA HAS COME IN WITH LOWS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THRUT THE
AREA SO AM LEANING TOWARD RAISING LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BUT WILL WAIT
TIL NEXT 3 HR UPDATE AND SEE A FEW MORE LAV RUNS COME IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL PUSH NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRANSITION ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHORE AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...AS
COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARM AIR ALOFT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN...EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND
SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST.
FLOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AS DRIER AIR DESCENDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP AS SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL IS IDEAL AT THIS TIME WITH FAIRLY GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30S FOR HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO DROP OFF. HOWEVER...IF MORE
CLEARING TAKES PLACE THAN ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WIND UP MUCH COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MOST SIMILAR. THE
MODELS BRING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BELIEVE GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH. STILL...SEEMS REASONABLE
BARRING TRACK CHANGES THAT SOME AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INCREASING TO LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST BUT FOR NOW JUST WENT DRY AS
ENERGY WILL BE TRANSLATING TO THE COAST. SATURDAY ANOTHER LOW DROPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND PRECIP COULD BEGIN OR
MIX WITH RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE SNOW. DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BRIEFLY BUILD IN. NEXT SYSTEM NOW MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS...MAINLY EAST THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL AS
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES ACROSS IL AND INDIANA
INTO NRN OHIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AM
CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN
TERMINALS DURING THE NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST AS PRECIP MOVES BACK IN FOR THE MORNING TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IMPROVING FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER
WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE LAKE WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND
DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TUESDAY
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ENE TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1207 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TODAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PIVOT EAST THRU THE GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA TO PUSH EAST ACRS ILN/S FA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN WARM MOIST ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED
INTO ILN/S WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A NARROW RIBBON OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE FRONT. MARGINAL INSTBY EXISTS
IN THIS THIN AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50
HAVE POOLED. LATEST RAP SOLN HOLDS ONTO MARGINAL INSTBY AND TAKES
IT MAINLY ACRS ILN/S SRN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
TO LKLY AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER.
ILN/S VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 50 KTS OF WIND AT 2K FEET ABOVE
GROUND. WITH THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF PCPN DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS AND ADDED THIS
MENTION TO SPS AND HWO PRODUCTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTON TYING THE RECORD SO FAR. WINDS
HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL SITES RECORDING
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
MODELS BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FRONT IS FORECASTED TO
BE THROUGH THE CWA BY AROUND 6 AM. HIGH RES MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING THIS BAND OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT AND ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS OMEGA
VALUES AGAIN LIGHT ALONG THE FRONT THANKS TO STRONG PVA. PWATS ON
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ALSO RISE TO AROUND 0.80". GIVEN THE GOOD
LIFT AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND SURFACE ALONG WITH SATURATED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PULLING EAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES FORECASTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO MONDAY
MORNING BUT QUICKLY RISE BACK UP AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY (UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH).
MONDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES STALLING A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN/ OHIO BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES ALLOWING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE OKLAHOMA/ KANSAS BORDER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTH AND PUSH EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/
TENNESSEE.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR TUESDAY IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
REGARDING TYPE OF WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AND UNFORTUNATELY
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN TEND
TO BE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATEST 18Z MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS FURTHER WEST AS
WELL. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EURO/ CMC SOLUTION. IN THE
WARM SECTOR TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE LOW SFC - 1 KM SRH VALUES ARE
NEARING 300 M2/S2 AND SFC - 1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS. CAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO APPROACHING 500 VIA THE NAM AND 300 VIA THE GFS.
GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK CLIPPING
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR DAY 3.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECASTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. HAVE
AGAIN TRENDED TOWARDS THE EURO/CMC SOLUTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC SO WILL AT
LEAST LINGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT TO RISE WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTH.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND IS
NOW SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE MORE SOUTHERN GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z CMC
IS STILL CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW EAST RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TRIM THEM BACK A BIT BASED ON THE ECMWF TREND.
TEMPERATURES AND PTYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF/GFS YIELDING ALL
SNOW BUT LOWER CHANCES OF PCPN. THE MORE NORTHERN CMC WOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT ALSO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PCPN. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH SO WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITIES. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS CHANGING FROM ABOUT 220
DEGREES TO 290 DEGREES. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE
EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED. SOME
CEILINGS MAY BE LOWER THAN 2000 FEET...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LIFT TO VFR (OR SCATTER OUT
ENTIRELY) BY MID AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING...AS THEY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
333 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THE SHORT TERM... WHICH WILL BOTH PUSH COLD FRONTS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE ADVANCING TONIGHT... WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES LAPSES RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT... WITH NAM MODEL CONSISTENTLY
PROJECTING MUCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ALONG WITH 40-45 KT WIND
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AT THE LOWER LEVELS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE RATHER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... THE
INTERACTION OF ALL THESE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60
MPH GUSTS. WRF & HRRR MODELS BOTH PROJECTS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WITH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE DRIER AIR
ADVECTS AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.
BY SUNRISE... ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA...
AS THE NORTH WINDS WILL ONLY BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. LATEST
MODEL THICKNESS FIELDS KEEP THE REALLY COLD WINTERY AIR WELL UP
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE 7 DAY
FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... EXPECT ONLY A 10 TO 15 DEGREE
COOLDOWN FROM TODAY... WHICH WILL STILL KEEP THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. SOUTH SFC
WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY... WITH THE SECOND UPPER
WAVE AND COLD FRONT DIGGING THROUGH FOR THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM WILL RESTRICT POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... THE
WINDS WILL HELP ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY... BRINGING IN LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 61 36 68 / 50 10 0 0
HOBART OK 45 63 37 71 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 64 38 73 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 62 33 73 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 58 33 66 / 40 10 0 0
DURANT OK 57 63 40 66 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/68
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1237 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL STORMS SYSTEMS WILL BE PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS... PRODUCING A NORTH WIND SHIFT
ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING IN
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 0200Z... REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS BY 0700Z... AND TO THE RED RIVER BY 1200Z.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... WITH TSRA DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY... MAINLY AFFECTING TERMINALS KOKC AND KOUN.
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FROM 5000FT TO HIGHER. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS AFTER 1200Z...
WITH WINDSPEEDS DECREASING TOWARD 1700Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM MAINLY THE SOUTH AT MANY
SITES 15-18Z...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY SITES IN OKLAHOMA AFTER
04Z. ADDED TSRA/VCTS MENTION FOR A 2-3 HOUR TIME FRAME AT SEVERAL
SITES. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. KOKC WILL MOST LIKELY BE
AFFECTED 07-09Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR KLAW-KOKC BY 12Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT IS THE MAIN
CONCERN. WILDFIRE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD OCCUR NEAR AND EAST OF AN ATOKA TO DURANT LINE...CLOSER TO
A DISSIPATING FRONT AND WHERE A SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXISTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THINK FIRST STORMS WILL FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND PERHAPS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
IN THE 8 TO 11 PM TIME FRAME THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND NMM/ARW MODELS MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
STORM EVOLUTION TONIGHT.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7 TO
8 C/KM...MUCAPE 500 TO 1500 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 35-45
KT...SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE. A FEW DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. NO TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL FORM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...HELD OFF WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT SEVERAL GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH COULD OCCUR.
TUESDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF I-35 BEFORE 9 AM.
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST. JUST BEYOND SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY MAY BE NEAR RED
FLAG. DID NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING SINCE WINDS AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE TOO MARGINAL...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 MPH...AND
HUMIDITY NEAR OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
TUESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. WINDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWEST...THUS
DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 48 60 34 / 0 60 10 0
HOBART OK 75 47 63 34 / 0 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 52 65 37 / 0 20 10 0
GAGE OK 77 41 61 30 / 0 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 43 57 30 / 0 40 10 0
DURANT OK 74 57 64 38 / 0 50 30 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/68/68
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
543 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM MAINLY THE SOUTH AT MANY
SITES 15-18Z...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM AND AFFECT MANY SITES IN OKLAHOMA AFTER
04Z. ADDED TSRA/VCTS MENTION FOR A 2-3 HOUR TIME FRAME AT SEVERAL
SITES. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. KOKC WILL MOST LIKELY BE
AFFECTED 07-09Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR KLAW-KOKC BY 12Z.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT IS THE MAIN
CONCERN. WILDFIRE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD OCCUR NEAR AND EAST OF AN ATOKA TO DURANT LINE...CLOSER TO
A DISSIPATING FRONT AND WHERE A SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXISTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THINK FIRST STORMS WILL FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND PERHAPS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
IN THE 8 TO 11 PM TIME FRAME THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND NMM/ARW MODELS MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
STORM EVOLUTION TONIGHT.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7 TO
8 C/KM...MUCAPE 500 TO 1500 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 35-45
KT...SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE. A FEW DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. NO TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL FORM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...HELD OFF WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT SEVERAL GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH COULD OCCUR.
TUESDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF I-35 BEFORE 9 AM.
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST. JUST BEYOND SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY MAY BE NEAR RED
FLAG. DID NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING SINCE WINDS AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE TOO MARGINAL...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 MPH...AND
HUMIDITY NEAR OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
TUESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. WINDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWEST...THUS
DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 48 60 34 / 0 60 10 0
HOBART OK 75 47 63 34 / 0 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 52 65 37 / 0 20 10 0
GAGE OK 77 41 61 30 / 0 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 43 57 30 / 0 40 10 0
DURANT OK 74 57 64 38 / 0 50 30 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
353 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT IS THE MAIN
CONCERN. WILDFIRE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD OCCUR NEAR AND EAST OF AN ATOKA TO DURANT LINE...CLOSER TO
A DISSIPATING FRONT AND WHERE A SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXISTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION. WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THINK FIRST STORMS WILL FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND PERHAPS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
IN THE 8 TO 11 PM TIME FRAME THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE AS THEY MOVE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND NMM/ARW MODELS MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
STORM EVOLUTION TONIGHT.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7 TO
8 C/KM...MUCAPE 500 TO 1500 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 35-45
KT...SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE. A FEW DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. NO TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL FORM OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...HELD OFF WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY...BUT SEVERAL GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH COULD OCCUR.
TUESDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF I-35 BEFORE 9 AM.
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST. JUST BEYOND SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
MBS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY MAY BE NEAR RED
FLAG. DID NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING SINCE WINDS AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE TOO MARGINAL...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 MPH...AND
HUMIDITY NEAR OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
TUESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. WINDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWEST...THUS
DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 48 60 34 / 0 60 10 0
HOBART OK 75 47 63 34 / 0 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 52 65 37 / 0 20 10 0
GAGE OK 77 41 61 30 / 0 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 43 57 30 / 0 40 10 0
DURANT OK 74 57 64 38 / 0 50 30 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1047 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A VERY MILD LATE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF TRIPLE POINT
996 MB LOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PA. THE LOW WILL STEADILY DEEPEN
AS IT HEADS EAST- NORTHEAST TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER
LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS IT TREKS EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
PLUMMETING TEMPS. STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12
MB WILL FOLLOW THE SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PA WITH A SWD TRAILING
BAND OF 8-10 MB RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING
BRANCH OF A 120 KT UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE
FEATURES WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES GOING OVERNIGHT FROM
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE. SOME
COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO KEEP
THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT SURGING NE
ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURSDAY AND A
FAST- MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEAK HIGH. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW FILLING
IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC
CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARMER TREND SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...TO MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...BUT
WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY- EXPECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY IF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE NEW/OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT AND ADJUST
LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WAS CONCERN WHEN I WORKED SUNDAY THAT WARM FRONT WOULD BE OVER
N PA EARLY TUE. TODAY ENDED UP BEING MILD AND DRY.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND WED WILL BE LLWS AND GUSTY WINDS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOW CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON WED...AS A NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN
HOW FAST THE RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND ADD A FEW GROUPS
AFT 18Z WED.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PM LGT SNOW.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW.
SAT...CHC OF SOME LGT SNOW.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
952 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A VERY MILD LATE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF TRIPLE POINT
996 MB LOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PA. THE LOW WILL STEADILY DEEPEN
AS IT HEADS EAST- NORTHEAST TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER
LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS IT TREKS EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
PLUMMETING TEMPS. STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12
MB WILL FOLLOW THE SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PA WITH A SWD TRAILING
BAND OF 8-10 MB RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING
BRANCH OF A 120 KT UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE
FEATURES WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES GOING OVERNIGHT FROM
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE. SOME
COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO KEEP
THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT SURGING NE
ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURSDAY AND A
FAST- MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEAK HIGH. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW FILLING
IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC
CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARMER TREND SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...TO MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...BUT
WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY- EXPECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY IF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE NEW/OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT AND ADJUST
LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAS CONCERN WHEN I WORKED SUNDAY THAT WARM FRONT WOULD BE OVER
N PA EARLY TUE. TODAY ENDED UP BEING MILD AND DRY.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND WED WILL BE LLWS AND GUSTY WINDS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOW CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON WED...AS A NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN
HOW FAST THE RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND ADD A FEW GROUPS
AFT 18Z WED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PM LGT SNOW.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW.
SAT...CHC OF SOME LGT SNOW.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A VERY MILD EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF TRIPLE POINT LOW
AND COLD FRONT OVER OHIO. 999 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF KYNG AT 23Z
WILL STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST- NORTHEAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND
OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT
TIMES ON THE RIDGES OF THE LAURELS EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PLUMMETING TEMPS.
STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12 MB WILL FOLLOW THE
SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PENN WITH A SWD TRAILING BAND OF 8-10 MB
RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING BRANCH OF A 120 KT
UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES PROMPTED US TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY - BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAURELS
FOR THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF GUSTY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
LATER ONE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN
MTNS OF THE STATE.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE.
SOME COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO
KEEP THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT
SURGING NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURSDAY AND A
FAST- MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEAK HIGH. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW FILLING
IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC
CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARMER TREND SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...TO MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...BUT
WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY- EXPECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY IF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE NEW/OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT AND ADJUST
LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAS CONCERN WHEN I WORKED SUNDAY THAT WARM FRONT WOULD BE OVER
N PA EARLY TUE. TODAY ENDED UP BEING MILD AND DRY.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND WED WILL BE LLWS AND GUSTY WINDS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOW CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON WED...AS A NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN
HOW FAST THE RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND ADD A FEW GROUPS
AFT 18Z WED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PM LGT SNOW.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW.
SAT...CHC OF SOME LGT SNOW.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
639 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
TO THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BECOME DIMMED BY A VEIL OF INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SUNSHINE...AND WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS HAS HELPED TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN...WITH LOWER
60S NOTED AT 18Z THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN PENN.
LOW PRESSURE /1000 MB - OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT
TIMES ON THE RIDGES OF THE LAURELS EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PLUMMETING TEMPS.
STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12 MB WILL FOLLOW THE
SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PENN WITH A SWD TRAILING BAND OF 8-10 MB
RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING BRANCH OF A 120 KT
UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES PROMPTED US TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY - BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAURELS
FOR THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF GUSTY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
LATER ONE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN
MTNS OF THE STATE.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE.
SOME COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO
KEEP THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT
SURGING NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURSDAY AND A
FAST- MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEAK HIGH. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW FILLING
IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC
CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARMER TREND SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...TO MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...BUT
WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY- EXPECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY IF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE NEW/OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT AND ADJUST
LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WAS CONCERN WHEN I WORKED SUNDAY THAT WARM FRONT WOULD BE OVER
N PA EARLY TUE. TODAY ENDED UP BEING MILD AND DRY.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND WED WILL BE LLWS AND GUSTY WINDS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOW CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON WED...AS A NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN
HOW FAST THE RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND ADD A FEW GROUPS
AFT 18Z WED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PM LGT SNOW.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW.
SAT...CHC OF SOME LGT SNOW.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST
NORTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. BEHIND THIS LOW...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15 MPH. THINK THE BULK OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
AND THIS IS WHERE THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST POTENTIAL. CANT
RULE OUT ANY DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE FOG.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF THUNDER CHANCES
WITH SPC PULLING OUT THE MENTION OF MARGINAL RISK IN OUR CWA.
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
AND WILL JUST FORECAST A 20 POP FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM SHOULD STAY MOSTLY QUIET. SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK
FRONT DROPS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THIS WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY
WHICH COULD PROMOTE WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A
STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME OF THE EFFECTS FROM THAT SYSTEM BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CYCLE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 78 47 73 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 78 43 73 56 / 10 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 61 80 46 73 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 75 43 71 57 / 10 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 84 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 43 72 58 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 82 46 74 55 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 45 72 57 / 10 10 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 78 46 72 58 / 10 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 80 48 73 58 / 10 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 81 49 74 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1124 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.AVIATION...
SSW WINDS THIS AFTN BECOMING A BIT BREEZY ON THE CAPROCK AT KLBB
AND KPVW. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD WEST AND DIMINISH SOME HOLDING
NEAR 11 KTS UNTIL A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 15G25 KTS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR TS AT KCDS LATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INSERT
MENTION ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE VEERING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
OVER 25 KNOTS AT LBB AND PVW. CDS WILL MAINTAIN A NEAR SOUTHERLY
WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR CDS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. THE PROBABILITY HOWEVER IS
MUCH TOO LOW TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. WINDS AT LBB AND PVW WILL
TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET UNTIL CLOSE TO
SUNRISE TOMORROW WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL FIRST BECOME GUSTY AT CDS AND PVW AROUND 11Z
WITH BOTH STATIONS HAVING NORTHERLY WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LBB WILL SEE WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 12Z. THOUGH IT IS BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS AVERAGING 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
SHORT TERM...
A DEVELOPING LEE TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT
COUPLED WITH MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SHARP COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL SURGE
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS START A
STEADY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH. A LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE IN THE EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALLOWING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CAPE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT
OF CAPE AVAILABLE AS THE NAM SHOWS NEARLY 1300 J/KG OVER CHILDRESS
WHILE THE GFS HAS BARELY 150 J/KG. THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP ONLY
GOES TO 01Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS SCALED DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEVELOPING CAPE THAN WAS SHOWN. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN ADDED FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER 00Z BUT
BEFORE 06Z AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WILL BE
EXPECTED IF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AS THE MUCH DRIER
LOW LEVELS WILL TURN IT INTO VIRGA. DESPITE THE LACK OF PRECIP
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY
AIR. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF US AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE SECOND
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE THIRD FRIDAY EVENING /THOUGH FURTHER
NORTH./ ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED RIPPLES SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A DEEPER DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOULD DIG INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND MAY GIVE US A BIT OF A WIND STORM INTO NEXT MONDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS ON POSTFRONTAL WINDS SPEEDS ON
TUESDAY BUT AM NOT INCLINED TO LOWER SPEEDS AS THIS IS A TYPICAL
MODEL BIAS THAT WE SEE WITH THESE SYSTEMS. FROM A SYNOPTIC POINT A
VIEW...SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE
REASONABLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS MORE IN LINE WITH A LEE TROUGH SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY. MILDLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1121 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR MOST AREAS 19Z-21Z. STRATUS DECK WILL
LOWER BACK INTO MVFR AT AUS/SAT THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z AND INTO
IFR AFTER 06Z...REMAINING THERE THROUGH 15Z WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. IFR
CEILINGS AND IFR-MVFR VISIBILITY IN STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
DRT AROUND 12Z TUE. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS 15Z-18Z SWING SW TO NW WITH
ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA 18Z-21Z TUE. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSTMS ALONG FRONT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR TUE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTH WIND 15-25 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS FORMING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 AROUND
THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AND ALSO IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUCH
AS ROCKSPRINGS. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN
EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS...AND DRT SHOULD BE GETTING RESTRICTIONS
TO IFR LEVELS AT ANY MINUTE. MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM ABOVE 5000
FT SHOULD HELP RAISE CIG LEVELS TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE WILL PROBABLY AREAS...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN...THAT REMAIN
AT MVFR LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS AND MORE LIFR
CONDITONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER MODELS FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE
LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP AS PREVAILING IFR THROUGH THE ENDS OF THE
TAF PERIODS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
UPDATE...
MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER CONTINUING TO PERSIST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TODAY
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE HRRR AND SOME WRF MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY BUT
THESE MODELS THINK IT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING WHILE AREA RADARS
REMAIN QUIET. ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE WERE TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN CAUSING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS.
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FOG IS DEVELOPING EAST
OF I-35 AND EXPECT IT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNRISE. IT
WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DISSIPATING
THE FRONT. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS
LACK A CONSENSUS AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO LITTLE OR NO QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DUE TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
DRYING AND CAPPING THE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND CAPE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO TURNING OF THE WINDS...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS EAST OF I-35 AND REMOVED THEM WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ELSEWHERE. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME STRONG.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY. MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY SOME
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONT IS
ALSO TRANSITORY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH.
EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
BEYOND THIS FORECAST...CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS WITH SURPRISING
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE BETTER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
PACIFIC FRONT COMBO MOVES ACROSS TEXAS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COMBO LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...UP UNTIL RECENTLY...THE
MODELS HAVE LACKED A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 62 77 46 72 / - 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 61 77 43 71 / - 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 78 45 74 / - 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 60 74 43 70 / - 10 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 59 83 48 77 / 0 0 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 62 74 44 70 / - 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 81 44 75 / - 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 79 62 78 45 72 / - 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 62 77 46 71 / 10 - 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 63 79 47 74 / - 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 63 80 48 75 / - 10 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1035 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER CONTINUING TO PERSIST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TODAY
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE HRRR AND SOME WRF MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY BUT
THESE MODELS THINK IT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING WHILE AREA RADARS
REMAIN QUIET. ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE WERE TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS FORMING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 AROUND
THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AND ALSO IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUCH
AS ROCKSPRINGS. SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN
EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS...AND DRT SHOULD BE GETTING RESTRICTIONS
TO IFR LEVELS AT ANY MINUTE. MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM ABOVE 5000
FT SHOULD HELP RAISE CIG LEVELS TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE WILL PROBABLY AREAS...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN...THAT REMAIN
AT MVFR LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS AND MORE LIFR
CONDITONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER MODELS FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE
LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP AS PREVAILING IFR THROUGH THE ENDS OF THE
TAF PERIODS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN CAUSING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS.
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FOG IS DEVELOPING EAST
OF I-35 AND EXPECT IT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNRISE. IT
WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DISSIPATING
THE FRONT. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS
LACK A CONSENSUS AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO LITTLE OR NO QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DUE TO LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
DRYING AND CAPPING THE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND CAPE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO TURNING OF THE WINDS...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS EAST OF I-35 AND REMOVED THEM WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ELSEWHERE. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME STRONG.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY. MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY SOME
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONT IS
ALSO TRANSITORY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH.
EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
BEYOND THIS FORECAST...CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS WITH SURPRISING
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE BETTER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
PACIFIC FRONT COMBO MOVES ACROSS TEXAS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COMBO LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...UP UNTIL RECENTLY...THE
MODELS HAVE LACKED A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 62 77 46 72 / - 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 61 77 43 71 / - 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 78 45 74 / - 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 60 74 43 70 / - 10 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 59 83 48 77 / 0 0 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 62 74 44 70 / - 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 81 44 75 / - 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 79 62 78 45 72 / - 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 62 77 46 71 / 10 - 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 63 79 47 74 / - 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 63 80 48 75 / - 10 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
516 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE VEERING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
OVER 25 KNOTS AT LBB AND PVW. CDS WILL MAINTAIN A NEAR SOUTHERLY
WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR CDS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. THE PROBABILITY HOWEVER IS
MUCH TOO LOW TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. WINDS AT LBB AND PVW WILL
TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET UNTIL CLOSE TO
SUNRISE TOMORROW WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL FIRST BECOME GUSTY AT CDS AND PVW AROUND 11Z
WITH BOTH STATIONS HAVING NORTHERLY WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LBB WILL SEE WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 12Z. THOUGH IT IS BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS AVERAGING 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
SHORT TERM...
A DEVELOPING LEE TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT
COUPLED WITH MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SHARP COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL SURGE
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS START A
STEADY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH. A LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE IN THE EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALLOWING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CAPE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT
OF CAPE AVAILABLE AS THE NAM SHOWS NEARLY 1300 J/KG OVER CHILDRESS
WHILE THE GFS HAS BARELY 150 J/KG. THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP ONLY
GOES TO 01Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS SCALED DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEVELOPING CAPE THAN WAS SHOWN. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN ADDED FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER 00Z BUT
BEFORE 06Z AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WILL BE
EXPECTED IF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AS THE MUCH DRIER
LOW LEVELS WILL TURN IT INTO VIRGA. DESPITE THE LACK OF PRECIP
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY
AIR. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF US AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE SECOND
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE THIRD FRIDAY EVENING /THOUGH FURTHER
NORTH./ ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED RIPPLES SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A DEEPER DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOULD DIG INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND MAY GIVE US A BIT OF A WIND STORM INTO NEXT MONDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS ON POSTFRONTAL WINDS SPEEDS ON
TUESDAY BUT AM NOT INCLINED TO LOWER SPEEDS AS THIS IS A TYPICAL
MODEL BIAS THAT WE SEE WITH THESE SYSTEMS. FROM A SYNOPTIC POINT A
VIEW...SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE
REASONABLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS MORE IN LINE WITH A LEE TROUGH SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY. MILDLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...
A DEVELOPING LEE TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT
COUPLED WITH MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SHARP COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL SURGE
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS START A
STEADY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH. A LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE IN THE EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALLOWING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CAPE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT
OF CAPE AVAILABLE AS THE NAM SHOWS NEARLY 1300 J/KG OVER CHILDRESS
WHILE THE GFS HAS BARELY 150 J/KG. THE 07Z RUN OF THE RAP ONLY
GOES TO 01Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS SCALED DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEVELOPING CAPE THAN WAS SHOWN. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN ADDED FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER 00Z BUT
BEFORE 06Z AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WILL BE
EXPECTED IF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AS THE MUCH DRIER
LOW LEVELS WILL TURN IT INTO VIRGA. DESPITE THE LACK OF PRECIP
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY
AIR. ALDRICH
.LONG TERM...
BREEZY WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF US AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE SECOND
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE THIRD FRIDAY EVENING /THOUGH FURTHER
NORTH./ ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED RIPPLES SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A DEEPER DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOULD DIG INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND MAY GIVE US A BIT OF A WIND STORM INTO NEXT MONDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS ON POSTFRONTAL WINDS SPEEDS ON
TUESDAY BUT AM NOT INCLINED TO LOWER SPEEDS AS THIS IS A TYPICAL
MODEL BIAS THAT WE SEE WITH THESE SYSTEMS. FROM A SYNOPTIC POINT A
VIEW...SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE
REASONABLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS MORE IN LINE WITH A LEE TROUGH SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY. MILDLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.AVIATION.../06Z UPDATE/
LOW CLOUDS NOT DEVELOPING AS QUICKLY AS THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING
TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOP IN THE 07Z-09Z PERIOD.
AFTER 09Z CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FALL TO IFR AT THE I-35 SITES. KDRT
NOT AS MOIST AND MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 10Z THEN
BECOMING IFR BY 12Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. FOG WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION
WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT FOG WILL BE LESS OF A FACTOR ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
DUE TO LESS MOISTURE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE S/SE AT 4-7 KNOTS.
AFTER 16Z ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS THEN VFR AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z AND WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER 17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. I-35 SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 06Z-07Z PERIOD AND THEN DOWN TO
IFR 09Z-10Z. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
KDRT WILL NOT SEE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP UNTIL AROUND 10Z THEN
DOWN TO IFR BY 12Z-13Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1-3 MILES. AFTER 12Z COULD EVEN SEE SOME VSBYS LESS THAN
ONE MILE. VSBYS AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z-16Z AND ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS 18Z-20Z. CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON THE LONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
S/SE 8-10 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z THEN DECREASE TO 4-8 KNOTS. AFTER 16Z
S/SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 17Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD
WITH A LATEST POSITION THROUGH ABILENE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WITH THIS FRONT IS ALREADY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG PRODUCTION
OVERNIGHT AND WILL FORECAST PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG OUT FOR NOW
AND LATER SHIFTS CAN INTRODUCE IT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE.
ANY POTENTIAL FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS WILL MIX-OUT BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
80S WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS WILL
BE HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL FOG.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB AND THE NAM/ECMWF IS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE TO NO QPF WITH THE FROPA. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER CAP AND
THEREFORE IS PROGGING SOME QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20/30
POPS MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN AREAS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 35 KNOTS. THESE VALUES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE WITH POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE
EASTERN AREAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE TEMPERATURES AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE A DRY FROPA. MODELS
THEN SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT-FLOW BY SUNDAY
WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW ON DAY 7 AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS UPPER PATTERN IS
LOW THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 78 62 76 46 / 0 - 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 78 61 77 44 / 0 - 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 79 61 78 46 / 0 0 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 76 60 73 43 / 0 0 10 20 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 82 59 82 49 / 0 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 77 61 73 43 / 0 0 10 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 79 60 79 44 / 0 0 10 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 78 61 78 45 / 0 - 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 79 62 77 46 / - 10 - 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 79 62 77 47 / 0 0 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 81 62 79 48 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1243 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THE 840PM UPDATE...ONLY SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...RELIED MAINLY ON HIRES GUIDANCE HERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT
LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS
AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN
EARLIER PROGGED...ACRS NRN OH AND LAKE ERIE. WITH THE SFC LOW
DEEPENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LVL JET AND
MIXING AFT FROPA...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 50 MPH.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD
ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. NR TERM GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WED MRNG...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AS THE UPR TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY
RGN THU...AS ANOTHER ADVANCES ACRS THE LWR GREAT LAKES THU NGT.
MDLS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF AND SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS SEEMED THE
MOST REASONABLE ATTM AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED... RESULTING IN A LGT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST LATER THU AND THU NGT...THOUGH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ESP S OF
PIT.
SNOW CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING THE
LATEST SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...SO THE SUPERBLEND WAS HEAVILY
USED TO FLESH OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHSN TO DEVELOP ONCE NW FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED. MVFR CIGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT FKL/DUJ WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SLOW
IMPROVMENT BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WITH TIME
AND CIGS RISING. VFR WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED AT MANY LOCATIONS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHOWERS SHUTTING OFF. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR
A TIME.
CL
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY TO BRING MORE DEGRADATIONS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>511.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE NRN LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT LOW OVER NE
CANADA. A LARGE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM WI INTO
IL AND LOW PRES OVER ERN IL REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. NW
FLOW LES INTO THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C
WAS LIMITED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 4K FT AND VERY DRY AIR
UPSTREAM FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SHORTER FETCH INTO WRN UPPER
MI...MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV INTO ALGER COUNTY WHERE
ADDITIONAL ACUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
HEATING MAY HELP TO GENERATE MORE DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER
CNTRL UPPER MI WITH STEEPENING 1000-800 MB LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE 500MB LOW ROTATING
ACROSS JAMES BAY AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN -15 AND -17C THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS /ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC/...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LES WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...ASSISTED
BY STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT. A MESO LOW IS PROGGED BY THE NAM/HI-RESWRF
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-E LAKE SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW POTENITAL TO BE ENHANCED MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT MAY SEE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANCE ROTAING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STATES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY. WHILE FCST MODELS ARE
CONSISTANT WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM FAR S ALBERTA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND DOWN THROUGH E CO AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH BECOMES A BIT MORE WASHED OUT/WEAKENS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS WI/IL/IN BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE NEXT
AGRESSIVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NW. THE
MAIN RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WAA...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ON AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C.
THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB GETS STUCK UP IN N CANADA...AND
THE NEXT DEEPENING LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND ACROSS AK ALLOWS
FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OF WARM AIR TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE N PLAINS.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING FROM THE N
CANADAIN LOW. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY. THE DEEP
SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK ACROSS ONTARIO...EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB W-SW WINDS OF 45-
55KTS FROM 18Z SUNDAY-JUST PAST 00Z MONDAY...WHILE 850MB TEMPS RISE
TO A CWA AVERAGE OF 4C.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO REBOUND ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY-TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 7C
NEXT TUESDAY...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 4K FT...
RESULTING IN OCNL HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT KCMX/KSAW. AT KIWD...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE THE RULE THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
MORE LIMITED FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. IF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR DO AFFECT KCMX OR KSAW...LITTLE OR NO VIS
RESTRICTION WILL OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
AFTER HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
112 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.
WIND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE SUSQ RIVER AT 06Z WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING BACK INTO WESTERN PA. COLD AIR IS
RUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WITH CURRENT READINGS ALREADY IN THE
25-35F RANGE WEST OF RT 219. MEANWHILE READINGS ARE NEAR 60F
AROUND HRB/YORK/LANCASTER. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES WITH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HRRR IS SHOWING VERY
LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION AND HAVE CUT BACK THRU AT LEAST 12Z.
WATCH OUT FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WET
ROADS.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON HOWEVER WILL CONSIDER
AN EARLY CANCELLATION AS PEAK WIND GUSTS FCST TO DROP BELOW
CRITERIA. THAT SAID IT WILL STILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY WITH FREQUENT
35-40 MPH GUSTS. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL LIKE THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURSDAY AND A
FAST- MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEAK HIGH. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW FILLING
IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC
CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARMER TREND SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...TO MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...BUT
WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY- EXPECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY IF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE NEW/OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT AND ADJUST
LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WAS CONCERN WHEN I WORKED SUNDAY THAT WARM FRONT WOULD BE OVER
N PA EARLY TUE. TODAY ENDED UP BEING MILD AND DRY.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND WED WILL BE LLWS AND GUSTY WINDS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOW CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON WED...AS A NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN
HOW FAST THE RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND ADD A FEW GROUPS
AFT 18Z WED.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PM LGT SNOW.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW.
SAT...CHC OF SOME LGT SNOW.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024-025-033-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1242 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR INCLUDING MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...POPS AND WINDS FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR SOLUTION.
MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING...
AS OF 700 PM EST TUESDAY...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WITH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST NOW ENTERING THE EXTREME
WESTERN TIP OF VA. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND THIS SHOULD OCCUR FAR WEST
AROUND 03Z THEN EXIT THE EAST AROUND 08Z. WILL BE MANAGING THE
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS. NO CHANGES PLANNED
TO CURRENT HEADLINES.
PREVIOUS AFD...
RAPID CHANGES IN STORE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND WELL
TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE BOUNDARY
INCLUDING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADVANCE THAT SWEEP ACROSS
THE CWA...AND THEN EXIT THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST
MESO MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM STILL SHOW A NARROW RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF SHOWERS SO STILL SOME
THUNDER THREAT MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER EARLIER TIMING.
ALTHOUGH NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGER
WINDS PER JET ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE
FAST MOVEMENT WITH THE SHOWERS.
HAVE ALSO MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE WIND HEADLINES
AND BOOSTED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE
NC MOUNTAINS INTO GRAYSON CTY VA. THIS SUPPORTED BY LOCAL SCHEME
NUMBERS INCLUDING A QUICK SURGE IN COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
OVER A RATHER SHALLOW INVERSION DESPITE A BIT LOWER 85H JET. ELSEWHERE
KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE AND CONSIDERED GOING ANOTHER
ROW OR SO OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST ESPCLY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHEN AIDED MORE BY MIXING DURING THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION.
AFTER COORDINATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE IN THE
HWO.
LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CATCHES UP WITH THE STRONG 85H COLD ADVECTION
AND UPSLOPE. HOWEVER MOISTURE RATHER SHALLOW IN A WIND BLOWN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. THUS ONLY RUNNING
WITH AN INCH OR TWO LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER CTY. COULD SEE SOME OF
THESE BANDS SPILL OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WELL GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY OFF SOUNDINGS...WITHIN THE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION...SO INCLUDED A SNOW SHOWER
MENTION OUT TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS
COULD STILL BE FALLING AT 12Z AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS STILL
INBOUND. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSER TO THE MET MOS ESPCLY WEST WHERE
SOME UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S LIKELY WITH MOSTLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
OUT EAST.
MOISTURE STARTS TO FADE ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BUT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO
WIND DOWN OVER THE NW. OTHERWISE QUITE WINDY/BLUSTERY AND COLD UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WITH GOOD DRYING FROM ALOFT BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
FINALLY SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISH SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES. HOWEVER STILL QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 30S MOUNTAINS AND ONLY 40S BLUE RIDGE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD BY AN APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY
COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH...SO HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WERE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. THE MODELS DEPICT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ABOUT THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
KENTUCKY ON 00Z FRIDAY...WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD
AND HAS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER ALABAMA BY 00Z FRIDAY. MOST OF
THE ENSEMBLE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...AND SEEM TO INDICATE THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z NAM MAY HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER TENNESSEE DURING 00Z FRIDAY.
BECAUSE OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK DIFFERENCES AND THE
CONSEQUENCES THEY POSE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE GFS WAS TOSSED COMPLETELY OUT OF
CONSIDERATION. A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF WAS FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...THE OVERALL SCENARIO DEPICTS THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER...AND PRECIPITATION TURNING FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THEN...THE SNOW CHANGES BACK TO
RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS...DUE TO TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST
WIND SHOULD BEGIN UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
FACING SLOPES FROM WATAUGA THROUGH GREENBRIER COUNTIES. THE UPSLOPE
MOISTURE SHOULD DECAY IN THE EVENING...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
WEAK IN ALL THE MODELS...SO ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
CHANGE. SPRING WILL SUDDENLY MAKE AN ABRUPT APPEARANCE ON
MONDAY...AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST.
COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...A
NOTABLE WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
THE 60S AND 70S BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE PROGRESS OF AN ORGANIZING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THUS...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRIER AND WARMER...A PHRASE RARELY USED TO DESCRIBE OUR WEATHER
SINCE 2016 BEGAN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1242 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
AND ALONG OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30KTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION REGIME TO TRANSITION TO UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR KBLF/KLWB...AND GENERALLY VFR IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AT KROA...KLYH...AND KDAN. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WEST OF THE RIDGE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCES ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
MAY EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL STORM WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF SUB- VFR IN RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>014-016>020-
022>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
414 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND...MOVING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA.
A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW CENTER THAT
ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER ON
MONDAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW CENTER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...MOVING
FROM THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND...SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS BY 18Z WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DECREASE BELOW 12KT AFTER 06Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG ERRATIC GUSTS.
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL COMPLICATE FORECAST LIMITING WINDS AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING...HOWEVER BASED ON BL WINDS EVEN IF MIXING IS
NOT AS STRONG WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 3HR OF 25 MPH GUSTS. BETTER
MIXING (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST) SUPPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMPLICATES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND TDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RAP/HRRR) SHOWING
TDS INCREASING FROM THE EAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY
00Z RAOBS GFS/ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AIR MASS ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL TDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO I LEANED THAT DIRECTION FOR MY
T/TD/RH FORECAST.
A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. NAM ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BE UNWELCOME
CONSIDERING PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTS. FOR NOW I UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE RH/WIND. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
OUR EAST IF WE SEE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TRANSLATE TO OUR
AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
350 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND...MOVING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA.
A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW CENTER THAT
ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER ON
MONDAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW CENTER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...MOVING
FROM THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND...SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH A SCT150-250 MIX. FOR
WINDS...SSW AROUND 10 KTS THRU 16Z-17Z...THEN WNW 15-30
KTS...DIMINISHING TO 10-20 KTS BY 04Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL COMPLICATE FORECAST LIMITING WINDS AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING...HOWEVER BASED ON BL WINDS EVEN IF MIXING IS
NOT AS STRONG WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 3HR OF 25 MPH GUSTS. BETTER
MIXING (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST) SUPPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMPLICATES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND TDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RAP/HRRR) SHOWING
TDS INCREASING FROM THE EAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY
00Z RAOBS GFS/ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AIR MASS ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL TDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO I LEANED THAT DIRECTION FOR MY
T/TD/RH FORECAST.
A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. NAM ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BE UNWELCOME
CONSIDERING PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTS. FOR NOW I UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE RH/WIND. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
OUR EAST IF WE SEE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TRANSLATE TO OUR
AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
331 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN THE MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND...MOVING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER THE
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA.
A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS EXPECTED
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW CENTER
THAT ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER
ON MONDAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW CENTER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...MOVING
FROM THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND...SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH A SCT150-250 MIX. FOR
WINDS...SSW AROUND 10 KTS THRU 16Z-17Z...THEN WNW 15-30
KTS...DIMINISHING TO 10-20 KTS BY 04Z THURSDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
327 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
REMAIN DRY WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIPITATION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL SEE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. DEW POINTS APPEAR TO STAY HIGH
ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY BUT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRESENTS PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE FOUR CORNERS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY
APPEARS TO MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS GETTING
DRY SLOTTED. HOWEVER ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING. COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE
LACKING SO AS IT LOOKS NOW THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH A SCT150-250 MIX. FOR
WINDS...SSW AROUND 10 KTS THRU 16Z-17Z...THEN WNW 15-30
KTS...DIMINISHING TO 10-20 KTS BY 04Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL COMPLICATE FORECAST LIMITING WINDS AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING...HOWEVER BASED ON BL WINDS EVEN IF MIXING IS
NOT AS STRONG WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 3HR OF 25 MPH GUSTS. BETTER
MIXING (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST) SUPPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMPLICATES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND TDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RAP/HRRR) SHOWING
TDS INCREASING FROM THE EAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY
00Z RAOBS GFS/ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AIR MASS ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL TDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO I LEANED THAT DIRECTION FOR MY
T/TD/RH FORECAST.
A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. NAM ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BE UNWELCOME
CONSIDERING PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTS. FOR NOW I UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE RH/WIND. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
OUR EAST IF WE SEE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TRANSLATE TO OUR
AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
943 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS MIX
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED NH AND HAS TURNED TO RAIN
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHWESTERN MAINE IN
FRANKLIN AND SOMERSET COUNTIES AND A FEW OTHER COLD POCKETS WHERE
FROZEN AND OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. THE WINTER STORM
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 21Z OR 4 PM. THESE WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY AS RECENT DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT QUICKLY.
COLD DENSE AIR IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE WHITES HOLDING
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR
WILL SWEEP IN SHORTLY BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL AS
SUBZERO WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES EVERY HOUR AS WELL AS INCLUDED
HOURLY HRRR TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEMS TO SHOW THE CLASHING COLD
POOL AND COASTAL FRONT WELL.
550 AM UPDATE...THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONING TO RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I`VE DROPPED
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NEAR TERM
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET.
PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THREE HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS WERE APPROACHING 8 MILLIBARS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
LOW RACING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY WITH WARM FRONT
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY THE TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. NWS
DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BLOSSOMING AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
MID COAST MAINE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE JET BEFORE
TAPERING TO RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COLD AIR
DAMNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE COLUMN INITIALLY COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS MADE FOR A SLOPPY MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN BY DAWN. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE A BATTLE TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY WINDS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO 30S
IN THE THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD BACK
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
20S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT A DIGGING S/WV TROF EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. STRONG LOW PRES IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STRONGLY FAVORING AN OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. THE 02.00Z ECMWF EPS HAS
EDGED EVEN FARTHER SE WITH THE CLUSTERING OF LOW PRES CENTERS. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER FOR FAR SRN ZONES...BUT CHANCES FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
THRU THE WEEKEND TROFING LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS...BUT FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF AXIS SUN...AND ANOTHER S/WV MON COULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
A SN SHOWER OR TWO IN THE MTNS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ELSE.
BEYOND THAT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORECAST
THE PATTERN TO BREAK DOWN IN A BIG WAY. SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING
IS FORECAST OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH H8 TEMP ANOMALIES CLIMBING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD
BE QUITE MILD IF THAT FORECAST PATTERN HOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR/LIFR EARLY TODAY IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDS
IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO VFR.
SE SFC WIND GUSTING UP TO 40 KT THIS MORNING AT COASTAL TAF
SITES...THEN NW SFC WIND THROUGHOUT GUSTING UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. EITHER HIGH
PRES OR DRY NW FLOW IN CONTROL...KEEPING STORM TRACK TO OUR S.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR A STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. BY THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM...FRI AN OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL OUT TO SEA. NE FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE AND SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF ME...AND A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. APPROACHING COLD FNT MON WILL BRING
INCREASING SW FLOW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ027-028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
900 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS MORNING
AND WILL BE EAST OF THE GASPE PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NEEDED TO UPGRADE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. KBHB COMING
W/GUSTS TO 55 MPH THE LAST HR AND LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWED STRONG
WINDS OF 55-60KTS AT THE 950-850MB LAYER MOVING NE. GETTING SOME
REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ALONG THE COAST. SPORADIC ATTM.
LOW PRES REDEVELOPING FURTHER S NEAR THE AREA OF GREATEST
PRESSURE FALLS. LATEST PUAL POL RADAR SHOWED CHANGEOVER TO
FREEZING PRECIP NO INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY W/SLEET. FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS SE AROOSTOOK SOUTHWARD DOWN INTO CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND MUCH
OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. JUST RAIN SOUTH OF THERE TO THE COAST.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE WRF AND HRRR 3KM SHOW LOW
TRACKING FURTHER S ACROSS THE MILLINOCKET(MLT)-HOULTON(HUL) LINE
WHICH WOULD KEEP FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE N. THE 925 MB
TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THIS AS WELL.
WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW. WILL RE-EVALUATE
HEADLINES BY 10 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN NY STATE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE GASPE PENINSULA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW TODAY. DOES IT PASS VERY CLOSE TO CARIBOU OR A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS,
MAINLY TO LOWER AMOUNTS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT ONLY AREAS FROM
AROUND FORT KENT WEST WILL SEE ALL SNOW, OR AT LEAST MOSTLY SNOW.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREAS ARE LIKELY ONLY
GOING TO BE IN THE 4-6" RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF 6-10" IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. WARMER AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH THIS
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES AT BAR HARBOR HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING, AND WILL DO SO IN THE GREATER BANGOR REGION BY AROUND 8
AM. AS THE LOW PULLS WAY THIS EVENING A SHARPLY COLDER AIR MASS
WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION. LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND FROM ZERO TO 10
ABOVE DOWNEAST. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THU WILL BE PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY AND QUITE COLD...WITH FCST 00Z GFS
925-850MB TEMPS ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEG C COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING
CANGEM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. SUBSEQUENTLY...A BLEND OF THE RAW
MODEL AND MOS MODEL HI TEMPS IS A FEW DEG WARMER THAN A BLEND OF
THE GFS RAW MODEL/GMOS DATA.
WE THEN LOWERED OVRNGT LOWS FROM RAW/MOS MODEL LOWS OVR CNTRL...NE
AND PARTICULARLY NW BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS WHERE DEEPER...FRESHER SN
PACK...LGT LATE NGT WINDS UNDER SFC HI PRES AND SKIES THAT SHOULD
REMAIN CLEARER FROM LOW CLDNSS N OF OUR FA AND HI CLDNSS OVR THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FA. A FEW OF THE COLDEST NW VLY LCTNS COULD DROP
TO ERLY FRI MORN LOWS OF -25 TO 30 DEG F.
WITH MODERATING 925-850 MB TEMPS...HI TEMPS FRI AFTN SHOULD
RECOVER MARKEDLY...TO ABOUT 10 DEG WARMER THAN THU`S HI TEMPS OVR
THE N...WITH HIGH/MID CLDNSS FROM LOW PRES MOVING E INTO THE OPEN
N ATLC REDUCING SOMEWHAT THE ADDITIONAL WARMING OVER CNTRL AND
PARTICULARLY DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. ATTM BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNFL WITH THE EXITING LOW MOVG E OF
THE MID ATLC STATES WILL REMAIN S OF OUR FA AND COASTAL WATERS FRI
INTO FRI NGT...WITH CLRG SKIES SPREADING SE FROM NRN ME INTO SE ME
BY LATE FRI NGT. WITH HI PRES STILL CNTRD OVR NRN PTNS OF THE
FA...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN BE OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT WITH MODERATING 925-850MB TEMPS...OVRNGT
LOWS OVR THE N HLF OF THE FA SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THU
NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FA WILL REMAIN IN BROAD WNW FLOW ALF PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM...WITH WEAK S/WVS CROSSING THE FA FROM CNTRL CAN FROM TM TO
TM...INCLUDING LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN AND AGAIN LATER SUN NGT
INTO MON BRINGING EITHER SCT FLURRIES AND/OR SCT SN SHWRS WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. EVENTUALLY...WITH THE RETREAT
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WELL INTO NRN CAN AND RISING 500MB HTS...SFC
TEMPS WILL RESPOND WITH WARMER...ABV AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS...SPCLY
BY ERLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR TODAY WITH CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR THIS EVENING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS AND TO MVFR AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALES AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARNING WILL
NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY SCA WINDS THU MORN WITH LGT FZG SPY...
SUBSIDING FROM GALES FROM WED NGT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS AT
OR BELOW MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA...WITH PERHAPS A PD OF STRONGER SCA
CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ011-015-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ005-006-010-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ016-017-
029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
850 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 12-13 UTC OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS...AND
THE GLOBAL 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES CONTINUE THE TREND
OF A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...WITH A FAVORED AXIS NOW FROM WILLISTON
THROUGH KILLDEER AND LINTON. THE CLIPPER HAS ALSO SLOWED...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS TIME WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO BE ERODED AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS SOUNDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN BLENDING RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 16 UTC...
WHICH MAINLY MEANT REDUCING/SLOWING THE RAMP-UP IN POPS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1230 UTC SUGGEST
THAT MOST OF THE RADAR ECHOES FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN ND
REPRESENT PRECIPITATION THAT IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING
MONTANA. IN RESPONSE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS IS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. RADAR IS FILLING IN A BIT ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE
FIRST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FINALLY INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION
IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE LEADING TO MELTING OF ICE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS SOON AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS THREAT SHOULD END AS ROAD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING THRESHOLD MOST OF
THE DAY ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WHEN IT`S ALL FINISHED BY TONIGHT...ONLY AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A DRY AND VERY WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE
BEFORE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ONE LAST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SET FOR FRIDAY. THE 00
UTC GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A WARM FRONTAL
ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING AND THERE
WILL THEREFORE BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 32 F. THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE THING SINCE
THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION ARE IN
QUESTION...BOTH OF WHICH ARE BORNE OUT BY SREF-BASED POPS WHICH
ARE CAPPED AT AROUND 15 PERCENT...BUT THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...500-MB RIDGING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S F...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. RECENT BIASES RESULTING FROM A
LACK OF SNOW COVER SUGGEST ACTUAL HIGHS MAY END UP BEING WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER...WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEEP TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH STRONG POLE-
WARD MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BENEATH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS TOO SOON TO KEY ON ANY PARTICULAR FEATURES SEEN
IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY
THAT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PERIOD CENTERED
ON TUESDAY /AS SUPPORTED BY CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN
STRATUS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
238 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN AND DEVELOPING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE NW.
THIS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE TOO
SUBSTANTIAL OF A COOL DOWN WITH THIS AIR MASS...BASICALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES AT BEST.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SFC BASED LIFT WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO GREATER POPS THAN IS PRESENT IN THE
EXISTING FORECAST. SHORTER TERM HRRR AND THE NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP IN GREATER
COVERAGE THAN IS COVERED IN THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO I AM
BOOSTING POPS UP QUITE A BIT OVER THE EXISTING FORECAST.
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. FOR THIS
REASON I SCALED BACK MODEL BASED QPF VALUES SOMEWHAT.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOK GOOD. RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH QUITE A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER STRONG JET. ON THE DOWNSIDE THE OVERALL
PARCEL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
LIMITATIONS WILL BE A FACTOR.
FOR NOW I AM WORDING THE WEATHER GRIDS AS SHOWERS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER IF OVERNIGHT TRENDS
START TO SHOW MORE LIGHTNING...THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS MORE PROMINENTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DURING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT BUT IT WILL STALL OUT AND
BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AS IT LIFTS BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE STATE AS A WARM FRONT.
STARTING SUNDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX REGION AS A VERY DEEP TROUGH SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. EACH OF THESE IMPULSES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER MONDAY EVENING...AND FINALLY A STRONGER ONE ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS
UP...WITH MODELS FORECASTING DEWPOINTS 60-65F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT IS STILL THE
DAY 7 FORECAST PERIOD WHICH IS TO SAY THERE IS A LOT OF TIME FOR
THIS TO CHANGE. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 45 61 38 58 / 70 50 0 0
CAMDEN AR 52 71 41 67 / 50 50 0 0
HARRISON AR 43 58 34 61 / 50 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 67 40 64 / 70 30 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 65 40 62 / 70 40 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 51 67 42 62 / 60 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 66 38 65 / 60 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 45 59 35 60 / 60 30 0 0
NEWPORT AR 43 61 38 56 / 60 70 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 46 64 40 61 / 50 40 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 46 65 37 63 / 80 30 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 62 38 59 / 70 70 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 63 39 59 / 60 60 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
117 PM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST WED MAR 2 2016
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY
LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. RED FLAG PARAMETERS ARE NOT
BEING MET AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY
UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE
PLUME DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS OUT AHEAD OF
IT. MAIN IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE NORMAL.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OR BRIEFLY CUT OFF UPPER LOW NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE
EASTERN HALF MAY GET DRY SLOTTED WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
OR SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO IN NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THAT
TIME. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST A BIT MUDDLED WITH LINGERING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA BUT NOT ANY REAL STRONG FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION. ECMWF SHOWING A LITTLE MORE QPF COMPARED TO THE GFS
BUT NEITHER VERY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THOSE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BLOW. THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING. ALSO IF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS THIS COULD ENHANCE
THE WINDS AS WELL. AM NOT AS CERTAIN AS EARLIER ON GETTING THE
STRONGER WINDS.
FOR KGLD...HOWEVER AM CONTINUING TO INCREASE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL
STOP GUSTS NEAR SUNSET. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW...GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
FOR KMCK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
23 KNOTS. AS WITH KGLD THE GUSTS WILL STOP NEAR SUNSET. ONCE
HEATING STARTS TOMORROW...WINDS WILL START GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KNOTS AGAIN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HIGHLIGHTED BY LIGHTING NEAR CENTRAL IDAHO. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
IS APPARENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON WV IMAGERY.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
GOOD FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACTING AS AN INITIATION POINT
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE. THERE IS A HUGE VARIANCE ON MOISTURE
PROFILES WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER...WHILE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWS DEEPER DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB (IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
00Z SOUNDINGS). ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IM NOT SOLD ON
THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE NAM (400-600 J/KG)...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
IS ALREADY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE LAPSE RATES ON ALL GUIDANCE I DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR ON WINDS/TEMPS AND
IF THE CLEARING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE FILLS IN WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAXIMIZING MIXING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
EAST. THERE HAS ALSO BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE ON BL
WINDS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MAIN STORM TRACK STILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...WHICH
COMPLICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FROPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
OF TEMPS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND H85 TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM...WE WOULD STILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND...MOVING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AREA.
A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW CENTER THAT
ROTATES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER ON
MONDAY...EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND ALSO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE SECOND LOW CENTER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...MOVING
FROM THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND...SHEARING OUT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO BE
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE WIND WILL BLOW. THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING. ALSO IF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS THIS COULD ENHANCE
THE WINDS AS WELL. AM NOT AS CERTAIN AS EARLIER ON GETTING THE
STRONGER WINDS.
FOR KGLD...HOWEVER AM CONTINUING TO INCREASE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL
STOP GUSTS NEAR SUNSET. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW...GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
FOR KMCK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
23 KNOTS. AS WITH KGLD THE GUSTS WILL STOP NEAR SUNSET. ONCE
HEATING STARTS TOMORROW...WINDS WILL START GUSTING TO NEAR 25
KNOTS AGAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL COMPLICATE FORECAST LIMITING WINDS AND
MAGNITUDE OF WARMING...HOWEVER BASED ON BL WINDS EVEN IF MIXING IS
NOT AS STRONG WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 3HR OF 25 MPH GUSTS. BETTER
MIXING (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST) SUPPORTS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMPLICATES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE AND TDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE WITH SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RAP/HRRR) SHOWING
TDS INCREASING FROM THE EAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY
00Z RAOBS GFS/ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AIR MASS ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL TDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO I LEANED THAT DIRECTION FOR MY
T/TD/RH FORECAST.
A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. NAM ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BE UNWELCOME
CONSIDERING PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT AND THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTS. FOR NOW I UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE RH/WIND. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY CONSIDER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
OUR EAST IF WE SEE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TRANSLATE TO OUR
AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1127 AM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS MIX
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND LOOKS TO LAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM...HAVE CANCELED THE REMAINING ADVISORIES...WINTER AS WELL
AS WIND. FRIGID AIRMASS HAS BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALREADY FROM THE NW.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED..ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
945 AM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED NH AND HAS TURNED TO RAIN
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHWESTERN MAINE IN
FRANKLIN AND SOMERSET COUNTIES AND A FEW OTHER COLD POCKETS WHERE
FROZEN AND OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. THE WINTER STORM
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 21Z OR 4 PM. THESE WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY AS RECENT DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT QUICKLY.
COLD DENSE AIR IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE WHITES HOLDING
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS REINFORCING COLD AIR
WILL SWEEP IN SHORTLY BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL AS
SUBZERO WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES EVERY HOUR AS WELL AS INCLUDED
HOURLY HRRR TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEMS TO SHOW THE CLASHING COLD
POOL AND COASTAL FRONT WELL.
550 AM UPDATE...THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONING TO RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I`VE DROPPED
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NEAR TERM
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET.
PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 992 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THREE HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS WERE APPROACHING 8 MILLIBARS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
LOW RACING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY WITH WARM FRONT
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY THE TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. NWS
DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BLOSSOMING AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
MID COAST MAINE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE JET BEFORE
TAPERING TO RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COLD AIR
DAMNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE COLUMN INITIALLY COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS MADE FOR A SLOPPY MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN BY DAWN. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE A BATTLE TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY WINDS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S
OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO 30S
IN THE THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD BACK
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
MAKE IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
20S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT A DIGGING S/WV TROF EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. STRONG LOW PRES IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STRONGLY FAVORING AN OUT TO SEA SOLUTION. THE 02.00Z ECMWF EPS HAS
EDGED EVEN FARTHER SE WITH THE CLUSTERING OF LOW PRES CENTERS. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER FOR FAR SRN ZONES...BUT CHANCES FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
THRU THE WEEKEND TROFING LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS...BUT FLOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF AXIS SUN...AND ANOTHER S/WV MON COULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
A SN SHOWER OR TWO IN THE MTNS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ELSE.
BEYOND THAT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORECAST
THE PATTERN TO BREAK DOWN IN A BIG WAY. SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING
IS FORECAST OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH H8 TEMP ANOMALIES CLIMBING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD
BE QUITE MILD IF THAT FORECAST PATTERN HOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR/LIFR EARLY TODAY IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDS
IMPROVING FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO VFR.
SE SFC WIND GUSTING UP TO 40 KT THIS MORNING AT COASTAL TAF
SITES...THEN NW SFC WIND THROUGHOUT GUSTING UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. EITHER HIGH
PRES OR DRY NW FLOW IN CONTROL...KEEPING STORM TRACK TO OUR S.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE
DROPPED CASCO BAY TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER.
LONG TERM...FRI AN OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL OUT TO SEA. NE FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE AND SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF ME...AND A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. APPROACHING COLD FNT MON WILL BRING
INCREASING SW FLOW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
JAMES BAY RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN LAKES. WITH THE LIGHT NRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...LOW LEVEL CONV
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -18C SUPPORTED
SCT LES FROM ERN ALGER COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY.
TONIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING OR EVEN A MESO-LOW OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE LIGHT LES INTO ERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LAND BREEZES AND LAKE INDUCED CIRCULATIONS BECOME
MORE PROMINENT. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE LES NEAR THE ERN CWA
SHORELINE WILL DEVELOP IS LOW BUT THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AOB 5K FT WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. ANY LES ON LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
REMAIN OFF SHORE. HOWEVER...A LIGHT S TO SE FLOW FROM LAKE MI MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE GARDEN PENINSULA OR SRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. AGAIN IN THE WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT...CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF ANY LES THAT WILL AFFECT THE CWA IS LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
BY 00Z FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND FAR SE
ONTARIO AND S QUEBEC. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BE ACCENTUATED BY AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN ON THE
NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC LOW WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA 09Z-21Z FRIDAY...AS
850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND -12C.
WAA TAKES HOLD OVER UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT NEARING FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS E ND/W MN. WAA SNOW WILL INVADE
W UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL MN AND
850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C. WHILE MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE
SFC LOW SINKING ACROSS CENTRAL WI FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING OVER UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS AN OUTLIER
BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE OUR FCST WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH...SHIFTING THE LOW ACROSS S WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST PRECIP TO AREAS ALONG THE WI BORDER
WHERE 850MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -7C. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. QPF TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND
0.10 INCHES TO AROUND 0.20 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST EXPECTED ALONG
THE WI BORDER WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE LOCATED. THESE QPF
TOTALS WITH AROUND 13 TO 15 TO SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL GIVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. AGAIN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE WI BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC SATURDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...WITH ONLY A BRIEF TURN OF THE SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NW. BUT
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C OVER THE E HALF...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
WAA WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC
LOW EXITS E AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS BY 18Z SUNDAY
WILL INCREASE TO 0 TO 6C /HIGHEST OFF THE GFS AS IT INDICATES 850MB
W-SW FLOW OF 40-55KTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/. EXPECT
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP TO START SUNDAY EVENING AS RAIN. THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES...SO WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS. A REBOUNDING 500MB
RIDGE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN INCREASED WAA INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY 12Z TUESDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
8C...ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 50F. WITH A STACKED SFC-
500MB LOW ACROSS THE E DAKOTAS AND W MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
COULD BE AN INTERESTING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL
WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS GET MORE IN LINE BEFORE JUMPING ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO EJECT NE...SLIDING JUST NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY EVENING-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE S END OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE OVER WI/UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT AVERAGE NEARLY 12HRS. COULD BE A
WET AND WARM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME BKN CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE AT KSAW THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AT KCMX LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IF THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO VSBY
RESTRICTION TO OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS
IN WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH SAT. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SUN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO INCREASES
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO 25 KTS BY MON AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
151 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 12-18 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION AND RAPIDLY UPDATES SUITES ARE
BEGINNING TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING SNOWFALL EVENT
WITH GREATER RADAR SAMPLING BEING ASSIMILATED. AS OF 1945 UTC A
LINE MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALSO OBSERVED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER SATELLITE...RADAR AND WEBCAM
TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1630 UTC AND THE
FULL 12-15 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 12-13 UTC OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS...AND
THE GLOBAL 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES CONTINUE THE TREND
OF A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...WITH A FAVORED AXIS NOW FROM WILLISTON
THROUGH KILLDEER AND LINTON. THE CLIPPER HAS ALSO SLOWED...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS TIME WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO BE ERODED AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS SOUNDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN BLENDING RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 16 UTC...
WHICH MAINLY MEANT REDUCING/SLOWING THE RAMP-UP IN POPS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1230 UTC SUGGEST
THAT MOST OF THE RADAR ECHOES FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN ND
REPRESENT PRECIPITATION THAT IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING
MONTANA. IN RESPONSE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS IS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. RADAR IS FILLING IN A BIT ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE
FIRST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FINALLY INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION
IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE LEADING TO MELTING OF ICE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS SOON AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS THREAT SHOULD END AS ROAD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING THRESHOLD MOST OF
THE DAY ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WHEN IT`S ALL FINISHED BY TONIGHT...ONLY AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A DRY AND VERY WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE
BEFORE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ONE LAST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SET FOR FRIDAY. THE 00
UTC GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A WARM FRONTAL
ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING AND THERE
WILL THEREFORE BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 32 F. THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE THING SINCE
THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION ARE IN
QUESTION...BOTH OF WHICH ARE BORNE OUT BY SREF-BASED POPS WHICH
ARE CAPPED AT AROUND 15 PERCENT...BUT THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...500-MB RIDGING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S F...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. RECENT BIASES RESULTING FROM A
LACK OF SNOW COVER SUGGEST ACTUAL HIGHS MAY END UP BEING WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER...WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEEP TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH STRONG POLE-
WARD MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BENEATH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS TOO SOON TO KEY ON ANY PARTICULAR FEATURES SEEN
IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY
THAT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PERIOD CENTERED
ON TUESDAY /AS SUPPORTED BY CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN
STRATUS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1058 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1630 UTC AND THE
FULL 12-15 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THE 12-13 UTC OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ITERATIONS...AND
THE GLOBAL 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES CONTINUE THE TREND
OF A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...WITH A FAVORED AXIS NOW FROM WILLISTON
THROUGH KILLDEER AND LINTON. THE CLIPPER HAS ALSO SLOWED...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS TIME WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO BE ERODED AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS SOUNDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN BLENDING RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 16 UTC...
WHICH MAINLY MEANT REDUCING/SLOWING THE RAMP-UP IN POPS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1230 UTC SUGGEST
THAT MOST OF THE RADAR ECHOES FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN ND
REPRESENT PRECIPITATION THAT IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN POPS A BIT
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
SNOW AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS TRAVERSING
MONTANA. IN RESPONSE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS IS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. RADAR IS FILLING IN A BIT ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE
FIRST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FINALLY INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION
IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMER LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE LEADING TO MELTING OF ICE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS SOON AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS THREAT SHOULD END AS ROAD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING THRESHOLD MOST OF
THE DAY ALL SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WHEN IT`S ALL FINISHED BY TONIGHT...ONLY AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A DRY AND VERY WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE
BEFORE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ONE LAST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SET FOR FRIDAY. THE 00
UTC GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A WARM FRONTAL
ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MELTING AND THERE
WILL THEREFORE BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 32 F. THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE THING SINCE
THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION ARE IN
QUESTION...BOTH OF WHICH ARE BORNE OUT BY SREF-BASED POPS WHICH
ARE CAPPED AT AROUND 15 PERCENT...BUT THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...500-MB RIDGING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S F...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. RECENT BIASES RESULTING FROM A
LACK OF SNOW COVER SUGGEST ACTUAL HIGHS MAY END UP BEING WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND HUMIDITIES LOWER...WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEEP TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH STRONG POLE-
WARD MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BENEATH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS TOO SOON TO KEY ON ANY PARTICULAR FEATURES SEEN
IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY
THAT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE PERIOD CENTERED
ON TUESDAY /AS SUPPORTED BY CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING IN
STRATUS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THIS TREND TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE COAST AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THEN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH LOCAL
MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM
THE CASCADES WESTWARD. -DW
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED 02 MAR 2016...SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY
STEEP AND SWELL DOMINATED THIS MORNING WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING THEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW WITH GALES AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED
SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS AND A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
AROUND 16 FEET AT 15 SECONDS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER VERY POTENT FRONT IS
EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY
AND STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH SWELL
AND WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY BRING STEEP AND POWERFUL SEAS AT A PEAK
OF AROUND 22 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG STORM ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. -DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM PST WED MAR 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH..EXPECT WINDS ALONG THE
COAST TO INCREASE. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH ALONG THE
COAST TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS AT H925 IS STRONG..THE DIRECTION IS MORE
SOUTHERLY AND LESS SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO THE
BARRIER PHENOMENON BUT WINDS SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THE WARNING. WE HAVE TRIMMED THE COVERAGE AREA DOWN TO MAINLY FROM
BANDON SOUTH PAST GOLD BEACH TO NEAR PISTOL RIVER WITH THE
STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS AROUND PORT ORFORD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WE
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. H700 WINDS
INDICATE SPEEDS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL.
INTERESTINGLY GUIDANCE KEEPS BREEZY CONDITION OVERNIGHT EVEN
AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. THIS IS RATHER UNUSUAL AS
NORMALLY WINDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE INLAND WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SPINS UP
ANOTHER FRONT AND THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF IT.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS PORTION OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY
AND SILVER LAKE AS WELL AS IN THE CHRISTMAS VALLEY AND NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY THERE.
WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY WE EXPECT MEDFORD TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE I-5 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT OVERNIGHT IN CURRY COUNTY WILL BE AROUND
HALF AN INCH WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN COOS COUNTY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RAIN WILL SPREAD BEYOND
KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASIN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT EVEN AT THE
COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN OPEN THE DOOR TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
EVENT THIS COMING WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE COMING
IN LINE WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETTING UP FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH SOUTHERN OREGON RECEIVING DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS WELL.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN RAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
ARRIVES TUESDAY. HOWEVER OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE BREAK IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS A FAST MOVING JETSTREAM OFTEN LEADS TO UPSTREAM STORM
CATCHING UP QUICKER THAN WHAT THE MODELS FORECAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND SNOW MELT IS A CONCERN GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE JETSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH A BIT AND
THIS WILL BRING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4-5000 FEET ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ADD SOME SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
$$
NSK/DW/FB