Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/01/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
956 AM PST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH
BAY ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND THEN
INCREASE FURTHER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
CHANGE TO A WET AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SO FAR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN IN OUR CWA OR WATERS
ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LIGHT MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THAT,
LITTLE WEATHER WISE GOING ON TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
MOST SPOTS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
TOMORROW ALLOW TEMPS TO MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN ALL
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THOSE
VALUES SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.
LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RETURN TO
WET WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT A FEW MORE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO FORM NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.
THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. ALL MODELS CONFINE MEASURABLE RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF
POINT ARENA...EXCEPT THE NAM WHICH PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST SONOMA COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING...TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA. 70S WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO MOSTLY DEFLECT THIS INCOMING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. ONCE
AGAIN...THE NORTH BAY MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CLIPS OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO FINALLY REACH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH SOME GUSTO. THE INITIAL IMPULSE SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IS
PROJECTED TO GENERATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT AT LEAST TWO STRONGER AND WETTER
STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
BY THE MODELS...THESE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STARTING
NEXT WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. IT`S TOO
EARLY TO PREDICT SPECIFIC TIMING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A WET PATTERN WILL EMERGE
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VFR CONDITION THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AS MOSTLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE TRICKY WITH COOLER TEMPS AND
INCREASE RH IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF CIGS
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. PREVIOUS
TAF PACKAGE HAD CIGS AND DO NOT SEE ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE THEM AT THIS TIME.
VICINITY OF KSFO....MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A FEW HOURS POSS MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TODAY THEN WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KT ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:50 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. WINDS WILL
DECREASE ON MONDAY...BRINGING IMPROVING SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE
WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 AM PST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH
BAY ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND THEN
INCREASE FURTHER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
CHANGE TO A WET AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SO FAR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN IN OUR CWA OR WATERS
ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LIGHT MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THAT,
LITTLE WEATHER WISE GOING ON TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
MOST SPOTS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
TOMORROW ALLOW TEMPS TO MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN ALL
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THOSE
VALUES SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.
LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RETURN TO
WET WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT A FEW MORE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO FORM NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.
THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. ALL MODELS CONFINE MEASURABLE RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF
POINT ARENA...EXCEPT THE NAM WHICH PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST SONOMA COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING...TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA. 70S WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO MOSTLY DEFLECT THIS INCOMING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. ONCE
AGAIN...THE NORTH BAY MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CLIPS OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO FINALLY REACH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH SOME GUSTO. THE INITIAL IMPULSE SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IS
PROJECTED TO GENERATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT AT LEAST TWO STRONGER AND WETTER
STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
BY THE MODELS...THESE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STARTING
NEXT WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. IT`S TOO
EARLY TO PREDICT SPECIFIC TIMING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A WET PATTERN WILL EMERGE
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST SUNDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SAN FRANCISCO
EXPLORATORIUM RADIOMETER AS WELL AS THE SAN JOSE RADIOMETER SHOW A
DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SO DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY RAIN AT THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION THERE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 12 KT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY...BRINGING IMPROVING SEA SURFACE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
607 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS CREPT BACK UP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AS OF 6
PM...AND WILL THUS LET RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT....
CURRENTLY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EASILY BEING MET OVER SRN EL
PASO...ERN FREMONT...AND MOST OF PUEBLO COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS SO FAR AT
KPUB TODAY WAS 72 DEGREES...SETTING A NEW RECORD FOR MOST 70 DEGREE
OR HIGHER DAYS IN FEBRUARY...TEN. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE WARNED AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN GUST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SWRD THROUGH ERN CO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH. BY THAT TIME...RH LEVELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH SO
CURRENT TIMING OF THE RED FLAG LOOKS ON TARGET.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE CENTRAL
MTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT SHOWING
ANY PRECIP OUT OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHILE THE 18Z NAM
STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY PRECIP...IN PARTICULAR OVER KIOWA COUNTY.
WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POPS OF AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR AMOUNT
FOR THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
TOMORROW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BUT STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST OF MARCH. MARCH WILL DEFINITELY BE COMING
IN AS A LAMB...AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND THE AREA REMAINS COMPLETELY
DRY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
...POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT. ON WED A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WL BRING SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED...THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN AREAS...WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY. NOT SURE THAT ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WOULD OCCUR OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SO WL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WED WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS. RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG. THE
GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE WINDS THAN THE NAM...WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.
A WEAK UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THU...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AND LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE.
THAT UPR RIDGE THEN GETS FLATTENED THU NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. FRI THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE FROM MT AND
WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WL SEND A FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN CO
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY. ALOFT...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE REBUILDING OVR
THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY AND FRI NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
PCPN OVER THE MTN AREAS ON FRI. TEMPS ON FRI WL STILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AGAIN.
SUN AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. SOME
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD DURING
THE DAY. ON MON THE UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH PCPN STILL MAINLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVN CONCERN AT THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KPUB...THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN CO THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM NOW THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z. AT KCOS...WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN AROUND 06Z AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SERN CO.
THESE N WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE RELAXING
AREA-WIDE TUE AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
838 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE
WEST OVER THE PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY COOL DOWN BY SUNRISE TO THE UPPER 40S FAR
NORTH...LOWER/MID 50S CENTRAL ZONES...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DOWN
TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE SUGGESTS
WE WILL SEE A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AROUND DAWN...HOWEVER NO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY WILL FEATURE FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL FEATURE OF MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ANTICIPATE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AT LEAST TO THE
LEVELS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY AN EXTRA COUPLE OF
DEGREES ADDED ON. THIS MEANS A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH 80. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON.
THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING ALONG WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW SEA-BREEZE FORMATION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
ONSHORE WIND WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER (BUT STILL COMFORTABLE).
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER 09-10Z PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLAL AND KPGD AND HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF
MVFR VIS IN THE FEW HOURS SURROUNDING DAWN. ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF BY 13-14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TUESDAY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK IN BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 57 74 62 75 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 58 79 61 80 / 0 10 10 0
GIF 56 80 60 80 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 58 70 59 74 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 51 77 55 77 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 59 74 63 77 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Surface cold front has reached from Macomb to Pontiac this evening
with temperatures falling over ten degrees in an hour immediately
behind the front at Galesburg and Lacon. The front should reach at
least through Peoria and Bloomington, but could stall out before
reaching Lincoln and Champaign due to southerly flow ahead of a
developing low approaching from the west. Although radar
indicates echoes just behind the front, not finding any reports of
rain reaching the ground as low levels are quite dry and cloud
bases remain quite high. Increasing moist warm advection along the
frontal zone should allow precipitation to begin developing NW of
the Illinois River toward midnight...eventually spreading toward
the Indiana state line by daybreak. Also toward daybreak, enough
cold air spreading southward into Knox, Stark, and Marshall
counties that a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow are
possible. Further southeast, a changeover to snow, and perhaps
some brief sleet, is expected behind the low during the daytime
Tuesday, with only light or no accumulation. Isolated
thunderstorms late tonight and early Tuesday remain possible from
about Taylorville to Crawford County southward remain a
possibility. No significant updates needed to current forecast
which depicts the situation well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Latest surface map shows the cold front has dropped into northern
Illinois, from the north side of the Chicago metro to near Moline,
then westward into southern Nebraska. Main effect so far has been
extensive mid and high clouds north of the boundary, with scattered
clouds to the south. Temperatures at 2 pm over our forecast area
range from the mid 50s near the Indiana border, to the lower 60s
across most areas from highway 51 westward.
High-resolution model guidance brings the front to about a Macomb-
Bloomington-Hoopeston line by mid to late evening, where it should
hang up while low pressure tracks across northern Missouri
overnight. Have maintained some chance PoP`s late evening west of
the Illinois River, but am thinking most of the activity in our area
will be moving out of west central Illinois after midnight as a
substantial dry layer will be moistened from the top down. North of
the front, forecast soundings mostly above freezing in the lower
layers, with main threat for any freezing rain or sleet before
sunrise across the extreme northern CWA toward Toulon and Lacon.
South of the front, have introduced some mention of isolated
thunderstorms late tonight from about Taylorville to Effingham and
Flora, as MUCAPE`s off the RAP model indicate some modest
instability of a few hundred J/kg.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
There is relative agreement in the models on tracking the surface
low across Illinois roughly between I-70 and I-72. They also agree
that the low will move into Indiana by 18z/Noon on Tuesday, with the
Canadian the slowest, having the low center barely past the border
with Indiana at 18z. The very fast speed of movement will limit the
potential for snow, sleet and/or ice accumulation across our
counties, as precip will be diminishing or ending as the cold air
pushes farther southeast across our forecast area Tues afternoon.
Our areas north of I-74 will have the best potential to see few
tenths of an inch of snow or sleet accumulation, with the best
chances being from Galesburg to Lacon where the coldest air will
reside most of the day. Freezing rain potential will be mainly
between Galesburg and Lacon as well, as that area will most likely
not rise much above freezing if at all during the day on Tuesday.
As far as thunderstorms are concerned, we see some MUCAPE values of
100-200 J/Kg south of the track of the low, so we included a chance
of storms south of I-70 in the first half of the morning. Even in
the areas that see all rain, QPF amounts will struggle to climb
above 0.10" south of I-74. Any locations that see a thunderstorm
could climb up to a quarter inch.
Lingering light rain or snow will end by Tuesday evening for the
most part. Areas along the Indiana border could see trace amounts
of precip linger into the evening. Otherwise, northwest winds
gusting to 25 mph will usher in a colder airmass, as lows dip into
the teens north of I-74 and into the mid 20s south of I-70.
A brief period of high pressure on Wednesday will provide dry
conditions with slightly below normal highs in the upper 30s to low
40s.
The next wave of wintry weather will develop Wed evening in a warm
air advection regime. A warm frontal circulation is expected to
develop across IL by midnight, with frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer driving precip overnight. Then, low pressure is expected to
pass across southern IL, keeping a period of prolonged lift north of
the low in the TROWAL. The extended period of snow could help push
snow accums by Thursday afternoon into the 2 to 3 inch range north
of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Paris. Some rain could diminish
snow amounts just south of that line.
Precip will end Thursday night as high pressure builds into
Illinois. Friday will remain dry as well before yet another low
pressure system pushes across the area, this time across northern
Illinois. We kept slight chances of rain or snow for Friday night
N of I-74 and in most areas on Saturday. Beyond that, a warming
trend should develop, with dry conditions through the weekend and
into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A cold front currently aligned from SE Iowa to just south of
Chicago will settle further southward overnight...likely passing
through at least KPIA-KBMI by midnight...will provide for shifting
winds this evening especially at KPIA-KBMI. Also, a chance for
some light rain showers developing over the area. A low pressure
center will develop and approach rapidly from the west...bringing
chances for more substantial rainfall, MVFR cigs and vsby, and
potential for isold IFR cigs/vsby by early morning. Once the low
passes to the east...brisk NNW winds will develop at 12-20 kts
with gusts around 25 kts. Brief sleet and snow showers will also
be possible in this period...but probabilities and timing
uncertainties preclude ecplicit mention in TAFs at this time.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
540 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Latest surface map shows the cold front has dropped into northern
Illinois, from the north side of the Chicago metro to near Moline,
then westward into southern Nebraska. Main effect so far has been
extensive mid and high clouds north of the boundary, with scattered
clouds to the south. Temperatures at 2 pm over our forecast area
range from the mid 50s near the Indiana border, to the lower 60s
across most areas from highway 51 westward.
High-resolution model guidance brings the front to about a Macomb-
Bloomington-Hoopeston line by mid to late evening, where it should
hang up while low pressure tracks across northern Missouri
overnight. Have maintained some chance PoP`s late evening west of
the Illinois River, but am thinking most of the activity in our area
will be moving out of west central Illinois after midnight as a
substantial dry layer will be moistened from the top down. North of
the front, forecast soundings mostly above freezing in the lower
layers, with main threat for any freezing rain or sleet before
sunrise across the extreme northern CWA toward Toulon and Lacon.
South of the front, have introduced some mention of isolated
thunderstorms late tonight from about Taylorville to Effingham and
Flora, as MUCAPE`s off the RAP model indicate some modest
instability of a few hundred J/kg.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
There is relative agreement in the models on tracking the surface
low across Illinois roughly between I-70 and I-72. They also agree
that the low will move into Indiana by 18z/Noon on Tuesday, with the
Canadian the slowest, having the low center barely past the border
with Indiana at 18z. The very fast speed of movement will limit the
potential for snow, sleet and/or ice accumulation across our
counties, as precip will be diminishing or ending as the cold air
pushes farther southeast across our forecast area Tues afternoon.
Our areas north of I-74 will have the best potential to see few
tenths of an inch of snow or sleet accumulation, with the best
chances being from Galesburg to Lacon where the coldest air will
reside most of the day. Freezing rain potential will be mainly
between Galesburg and Lacon as well, as that area will most likely
not rise much above freezing if at all during the day on Tuesday.
As far as thunderstorms are concerned, we see some MUCAPE values of
100-200 J/Kg south of the track of the low, so we included a chance
of storms south of I-70 in the first half of the morning. Even in
the areas that see all rain, QPF amounts will struggle to climb
above 0.10" south of I-74. Any locations that see a thunderstorm
could climb up to a quarter inch.
Lingering light rain or snow will end by Tuesday evening for the
most part. Areas along the Indiana border could see trace amounts
of precip linger into the evening. Otherwise, northwest winds
gusting to 25 mph will usher in a colder airmass, as lows dip into
the teens north of I-74 and into the mid 20s south of I-70.
A brief period of high pressure on Wednesday will provide dry
conditions with slightly below normal highs in the upper 30s to low
40s.
The next wave of wintry weather will develop Wed evening in a warm
air advection regime. A warm frontal circulation is expected to
develop across IL by midnight, with frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer driving precip overnight. Then, low pressure is expected to
pass across southern IL, keeping a period of prolonged lift north of
the low in the TROWAL. The extended period of snow could help push
snow accums by Thursday afternoon into the 2 to 3 inch range north
of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Paris. Some rain could diminish
snow amounts just south of that line.
Precip will end Thursday night as high pressure builds into
Illinois. Friday will remain dry as well before yet another low
pressure system pushes across the area, this time across northern
Illinois. We kept slight chances of rain or snow for Friday night
N of I-74 and in most areas on Saturday. Beyond that, a warming
trend should develop, with dry conditions through the weekend and
into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A cold front currently aligned from SE Iowa to just south of
Chicago will settle further southward overnight...likely passing
through at least KPIA-KBMI by midnight...will provide for shifting
winds this evening especially at KPIA-KBMI. Also, a chance for
some light rain showers developing over the area. A low pressure
center will develop and approach rapidly from the west...bringing
chances for more substantial rainfall, MVFR cigs and vsby, and
potential for isold IFR cigs/vsby by early morning. Once the low
passes to the east...brisk NNW winds will develop at 12-20 kts
with gusts around 25 kts. Brief sleet and snow showers will also
be possible in this period...but probabilities and timing
uncertainties preclude ecplicit mention in TAFs at this time.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
317 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...
315 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH AN INVERSION IN
PLACE AROUND 5000 FT THIS HAS LARGELY RESULTED IN JUST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. IN THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE
SEEING A WEAKENING OF THE WINDS. EXPECT AFTER THIS LULL IN THE
WINDS THAT FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL MAKE
FOR A BLUSTERY EVENING UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS APPROACHING 35
KT COMBINED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF MORE SO
THIS EVENING AS STRATUS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND PRESSURE RISES SHIFT
EAST.
A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
VERY WIDESPREAD. THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER A COLDER START TO THE
DAY...WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
315 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS STILL MEDIUM AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE LOW/S
PATH...SPEED...AND STRENGTH WHICH IS WHY CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
WHERE I/D LIKE. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD SUPPORT A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LEE COUNTY THROUGH COOK COUNTY NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. WILL HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT ISSUE A SPS HIGHLIGHTING
A WINTRY MIX AND MESSY COMMUTE TUESDAY MORNING.
THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT IS A WINTRY MIX CONTAINING FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IF NOT LONGER. AREAS
NORTH OF I-88 WILL LIKELY TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WILL TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF SNOW CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH THE SNOW SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT.
ACCUMULATING ICE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. MAX ICE ACCUMULATIONS
GREATER THAN 0.05 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80 WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. KEPT TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
LESS THAN 0.1 OF AN INCH...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD GET NEAR 0.1
INCHES.
FOR SNOW...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...BUT
LEANING TOWARD THE MODELS THAT FEATURE A STRONGER TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE MODELS KEEP SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH RAISED SNOW TOTALS TO 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTH OF I-80 WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH OF A MIDWAY
AIRPORT TO ROCHELLE IL LINE. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE FORECAST TO
RECEIVE 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH AREAS SOUTH OF A LA SALLE IL TO
VALPARAISO INDIANA LINE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.
METEOROLOGICAL REASONING FOR SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK...
THE EURO CONTINUES TO HAVE A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WHILE
THE GFS AND NAM FEATURE BACK SIDE SNOW AND A MUCH STRONGER VORT
STREAMER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN IL TUESDAY AND REACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT HANGS OVER NORTHERN IL MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG IT. THE
LOW LEVELS COOL TO BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD. PRECIP TYPES WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN DUE TO THE MELTING LAYER ALOFT. EPV IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORCING AT THIS TIME BUT STILL THINKING PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE AND FALL AT A DECENT
CLIP. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER
HOUR...AND COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET DURING THE RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION. THE WINTRY MIX BECOMES SNOW AS THE UPPER LEVELS COOL
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX AND
THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX THE LONGEST. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
STEADILY COOL...SURFACE WARMING AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
ALLOW PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SOURCE OF FORCING SHIFTS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NAM FEATURES EPV ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH COULD
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE GFS DOES NOT FEATURE EPV SO OPTED TO GO WITH
LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH QUICKER SOLUTION
AND IS PULLING SNOW OUT OF THE REGION. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
TUESDAY EVENING TO COINCIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS AND NAM AND THE
STRONGER TROUGH THEY BOTH FEATURE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MINIMAL AT
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN SNOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT SURFACE
LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE WARNING AREA LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE LOW...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW/S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST IN THE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEADS TO WARMING LATE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD IS ON WINDS. CURRENT
CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY LIMITING DEEP MIXING TODAY. THERE ARE SOME
MUCH STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE CURRENT LEVEL OF THE
INVERSION...BUT WE ARE STRUGGLING TO GET THERE AND THE TROUGH AXIS
IS APPROACHING. WITH A PEAK WIND EARLIER AT KUGN OF 40 KT...HAVE
HELD ONTO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF KEEPING MOST GUSTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30 KT RANGE AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KT. AREA VWP`S
ALSO SUGGEST WE NEED TO MIX TO 4000 FT TO GET ABOVE 40 KT GUSTS WHICH
IS ABOUT 1000 FT ABOVE WHAT CURRENT AMDAR SUGGEST AS WELL.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY AND
DECREASE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT THOUGH WILL STILL HOLD A VCSH AS COVERAGE IS A CONCERN.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A SHOWER AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN
THE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH THINK THE INVERSION NOT
BREAKING THAT THEY WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. ALSO WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL. HELD TO VCSH AS IT SEEMS A
REASONABLE COURSE FOR NOW.
CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. 3 MB
PRESSURE RISES OF 6-8 MB PER THE RAP SUGGESTS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING OUT OF A NW DIRECTION. MIXING SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND THUS NOT EXPECTING GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT. COULD ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST AFTER THE PEAK
WIND TIME. AFTER TONIGHT...A QUIETER PERIOD ON MONDAY...THOUGH
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND WITH DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO NE
MONDAY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ON THE DOCKET.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CST
WILL LET THE GALE WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS OCNL GALES
ARE STILL PSBL IN THE NSH WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT WILL THEN BE NEEDED
FOR ALL OF THE NSH WATERS THROUGH EARLY IF NOT MID WEEK. PERIODS OF
STRONG AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE LAKE WITH ITS COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI AND THE IA/IL STATE LINE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE NSH WATERS AND SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY WHILE A LOW PASSES NORTH OF
THE LAKE. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GALES OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE TUESDAY
AND REACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
10 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM SUNDAY TO 9
AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Cold front has just crossed the Illinois/Iowa border as of 2 pm and
is steadily marching east. Increase in cloud cover has started to
temper some of the wind gusts across the western CWA, and am
planning to let the wind advisory expire west from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward at 4 pm. However, still quite a bit of sun
across the southeast third of the CWA, which has helped with the
mixing of the winds down to the surface. Have had some recent
sustained winds of 40-45 mph from Paris to Lawrenceville with gusts
of 50-55 mph. HRRR model shows a few more hours of strong gusts over
there. Across the southeast third of the forecast area, the advisory
has been extended until 6 pm.
The front should be near I-57 by 7 pm and exiting the southeast CWA
around 9 pm. Strong pressure rises behind the front will likely
bring additional gusts of 35-40 mph northwest of I-55 early this
evening, but the gusts should be settling a bit by the time eastern
Illinois is affected. Rain-wise, temperature/dewpoint spreads are
currently around 20 degrees, although high-resolution model guidance
still tries to generate a few showers over the next few hours. Will
maintain generally 20% PoP`s into early evening, although a bit
higher near the Indiana border.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Monday will see the return of southwest flow in the morning, helping
to recover from the brief push of cold air behind Sunday`s cold
front. Some sunshine should help high temps range from the upper 50s
near Danville in eastern IL, to the lower 60s toward Jacksonville
and west central IL.
A storm system is still taking aim on the region for Tuesday. The
12z models are in better agreement, with the GFS, NAM, and Canadian
GEM all taking a low pressure center roughly up the I-70 corridor
later Tuesday morning into afternoon. The ECMWF is farther south
with the track, taking the low across the far southern tip of IL
Tuesday morning, which is 6 hours faster that the other models.
The thermal profiles in the GFS group look to support rain initially
Monday evening as rain develops Rushville to Bloomington
northwestward, then sleet or freezing rain could develop late Monday
night into Tuesday morning north of Peoria. As temps rise above
freezing on Tuesday, precip type should transition to mainly rain,
but sleet or snow will still be possible north of a line from
Rushville to Lincoln to Bloomington through the day. As the surface
low passes across southern IL around mid-day, colder air will be
drawn into the northwest side of the system, changing precip over to
snow in our area northwest of the Illinois river initially. The
change-over to snow should continue Tues evening as colder air
arrives. However, precip potential will decrease as well, so
additional snowfall accums Tues night should be more like a dusting.
Through the whole system evolution, the better chances of snow accum
will be mainly north of Peoria, where up to an inch of snow could
accumulate. Along and north of I-74 will have potential for a few
tenths of an inch as the system departs east of Illinois.
All precip should be done by sunrise on Wed, as high pressure
advances into IL from the west. However, the next system will
quickly start of affect the area later Wed night, as rain or snow
develops in the warm advection area ahead of the low. The low path
looks to remain far enough south of our counties for the precip to
be primarily snow in our counties. Forecast QPF amounts vary widely,
with the Canadian showing potential for a couple of inches snow
accum, mainly in our northern counties, but around an inch even
south of I-72. GFS shows around an inch of snow occurring from west
to east Wednesday into Wed evening. The ECMWF has much less moisture
available, with only a dusting of snow. Will keep the chance PoPs
from the blended initialization, and keep snow as the primary precip
type north of I-72, and a rain/snow mix south of there on Thursday,
with precip as all snow Thursday night before precip ends.
Beyond that, a weak shortwave is projected to pass across northern
IL Sat into Sat night, with spotty rain or snow chances north of our
forecast area. We could see sprinkles or flurries develop, but most
areas should remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Main concern in the short term remains with the wind. Southwest
winds will continue to gust over 35 knots through mid afternoon,
but may linger closer to about 23Z at KCMI. A cold front will move
in from the west, decreasing winds a bit before shifting them to
the northwest. Frontal passage should be around 21-22Z from KPIA-
KSPI, ranging to around 00-01Z at KCMI. Immediately behind the
front, a few hours of MVFR ceilings appear likely before skies
clear. Winds will trend back toward the southwest overnight and
become a bit gusty again late Monday morning, although not as much
as today.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ044>046-054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>053.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton/Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1202 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...1030 AM CST
WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY AT
ROCKFORD AND WE ARE SEEING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO
EVEN A 61 A KMDW AS OF 1045 AM PER 1 MINUTE KMDW OBS. SW WINDS
ARE INCREASING AREA WIDE AS THE 925-850 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS
BEFORE WE START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE COLD FRONT MID
AFTERNOON. KLOT VWP DOES DEPICT 925-850 WINDS DECREASING SOME THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT WE ARE STARTING TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A NARROW WINDOW AS WELL OF WIND GUSTS
GETTING INTO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AS AS A NOTE...THERE WILL BE A
WEAKENING OF THE WINDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
WAVE WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY EVENING UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION.
HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC RUC FORECAST
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GETTING QUITE STEEP THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS. THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT
THE ACTIVITY IN MINNESOTA...CURRENTLY QUITE ROBUST...FROM HOLDING
TOGETHER QUITE AS WELL IN OUR AREA.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
411 AM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH...WHICH CERTAINLY LOOKS POISED TO COME IN LIKE A LION THIS
YEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...POORLY TIMED SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY MORNING
MARCH 1ST...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON THURSDAY.
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER LITTLE IF ANY SNOWPACK WILL SUPPORT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
WARMTH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MILD START. ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS ALSO
WERE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DESPITE THE LINGERING SNOW
COVER FROM THE EVENT LAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
QUICKLY SNOW COVER IS ERODING AND HOW THIS MIGHT MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. WILL PLAN TO KEEP NW INDIANA
JUST A BIT COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE US PLAYING CATCH UP THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
START TO CLIMB RAPIDLY IN THAT AREA AS WELL.
IT IS INTERESTING AND SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT RECORD HIGHS ON
FEBRUARY 28 FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED BASED ON VALUES FOR SURROUNDING DAYS...AND
EVEN COMPARED TO THE 29TH WHICH HAS HAD FAR FEWER CHANCES TO
EXPERIENCE CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES. FOR ROCKFORD TODAY THE RECORD
HIGH FROM 1932 IS JUST 56 WHILE IT IS 68 ON THE 27TH...64 ON THE
29TH...AND 66 ON MARCH 1ST. FOR CHICAGO TODAY THE RECORD HIGH FROM
ALL THE WAY BACK IN 1895 IS JUST 61 WHILE IT IS 75 ON THE 27TH...65
ON THE 29TH...AND 71 ON MARCH 1ST. SO WHILE IT IS LIKELY THOUGH OF
COURSE NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN WE WILL END UP BREAKING THESE RECORD
HIGHS...THEY DO APPEAR SOMEWHAT OVERDUE TO BE BROKEN FOR THIS DATE.
THE OTHER AND ACTUALLY MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...LIKELY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH
SUSTAINED OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
ZONE. AGAIN...WITH SNOW COVER OVER NW INDIANA THE SOMEWHAT
INHIBITED MIXING MEANS GUSTS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG AS IN AREAS
FARTHER WEST.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN SOME BRIEF
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT AND RECOVER JUST AS QUICKLY MONDAY WHEN WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT BUT ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC...BUT SNOW
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS AND UNFORTUNATELY BE
FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD AROUND THE MORNING RUSH.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
411 AM CST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK
LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MILDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND UNDER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR NEXT
SUNDAY.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD IS ON WINDS. CURRENT
CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY LIMITING DEEP MIXING TODAY. THERE ARE SOME
MUCH STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE CURRENT LEVEL OF THE
INVERSION...BUT WE ARE STRUGGLING TO GET THERE AND THE TROUGH AXIS
IS APPROACHING. WITH A PEAK WIND EARLIER AT KUGN OF 40 KT...HAVE
HELD ONTO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF KEEPING MOST GUSTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30 KT RANGE AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KT. AREA VWP`S
ALSO SUGGEST WE NEED TO MIX TO 4000 FT TO GET ABOVE 40 KT GUSTS WHICH
IS ABOUT 1000 FT ABOVE WHAT CURRENT AMDAR SUGGEST AS WELL.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY AND
DECREASE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT THOUGH WILL STILL HOLD A VCSH AS COVERAGE IS A CONCERN.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A SHOWER AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN
THE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH THINK THE INVERSION NOT
BREAKING THAT THEY WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. ALSO WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL. HELD TO VCSH AS IT SEEMS A
REASONABLE COURSE FOR NOW.
CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. 3 MB
PRESSURE RISES OF 6-8 MB PER THE RAP SUGGESTS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING OUT OF A NW DIRECTION. MIXING SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND THUS NOT EXPECTING GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT. COULD ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST AFTER THE PEAK
WIND TIME. AFTER TONIGHT...A QUIETER PERIOD ON MONDAY...THOUGH
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND WITH DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO NE
MONDAY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ON THE DOCKET.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
422 AM...A COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS LOW WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND DID NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THIS LOW WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS THEN REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 4 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
10 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM SUNDAY TO 9
AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1129 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Latest surface map showed cold front extending from near Kansas City
northeast into east central Wisconsin. Pressure gradient ahead of
this front resulting in wind gusts already around 35 mph in
several locations, and 10 am observation at Decatur came in with
45 mph. Latest HRRR guidance has the front coming into the
northwest CWA around mid-afternoon. The stronger wind gusts of
40-45 mph will continue until then, when the gradient relaxes a
bit immediately ahead of the front. Wind advisory was adjusted
earlier to include the entire CWA, and no changes will be made to
the wind advisory valid period at this time.
Adjustments to the hourly grids have been sent for the sky trends
and the rain chances, adjusting the eastern CWA to focus more on
in the late afternoon. Temperatures appear on track and only made
minor adjustments for the hourly grids the next couple hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Will be plenty of sunshine today and along with strong waa due to
south-southwest winds, just ahead of a weak front moving through the
area this afternoon. Gradient ahead of the front is very tight and
strong winds are expected. Model data/guidance and bufkit soundings
support sustained winds or around 30 mph with possible gusts up to
near 45 mph from later this morning through early afternoon. Once
the front gets closer to the CWA, strongest winds shift into
eastern IL with gradient loosening some. Will be going with a wind
advisory for later this morning through early afternoon over most
of central and eastern IL. Only counties not included will be
along I-70 and to the south...southeast IL. Front does not have a
lot of moisture to work with until this afternoon as it gets thru
most of the area. However, there is still a front, so going with
slight chance of showers along front, mainly east of the IL river
and all the way to the IN border.
Temps will be much warm than yesterday and with all the snow now
melted and strong waa and lots of sunshine, believe temps will
actually get warmer than first forecast. So have increased high
temps across the region for this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
A blustery evening becomes dominated by northwesterly winds and is a
bit cooler than the night before with cool air filtering in behind
the front. Models are inconsistent with the development of the
precip along and ahead of the boundary even going into the evening
hours. GFS and ECMWF slightly wetter than the unusually drier NAM.
BUFKit soundings not working with much in the way of moisture, but
cannot leave out a low chance in the far east in the early evening
hours. Otherwise cooler tonight...but the cool air does not take
over as Monday is slated to be another mild day with highs in the
upper 50s/lower 60s with the winds becoming southerly again as the
brief surface ridging slips to the east. The next storm developing
over the Plains starts to take shape and precip chances spread into
the region Monday night and into Tuesday. Models seem to be coming
around to a less intensely developed surface system with the open
wave aloft. Will be moving through the mean flow rather quickly and
wrapping up by Tuesday night. Forecast soundings are not cold enough
to warrant a long time frame of snow. The QPF fields are slowly
losing the look of the deformation zone. Precip will start as rain
and as cold air moves in to the back side of the system, rain or
snow will be NW of the I-55 corridor. However, even if the snow
were to develop, very little if any accumulation is expected in such
a wet environment. Early Wednesday morning clearly the coldest
morning in the forecast with the chilly Arctic air in place behind
the boundary. A quick clipper Wed night and into Thursday brings
the next chances for accumulating snow, should the thermal profile
hold. Wed and Thu chilly with highs in the 30s/lower 40s, slightly
below seasonal norms. Temps begin warming at the end of the week and
into next weekend with the warm air from the western ridge slowly
making its way into the Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Main concern in the short term remains with the wind. Southwest
winds will continue to gust over 35 knots through mid afternoon,
but may linger closer to about 23Z at KCMI. A cold front will move
in from the west, decreasing winds a bit before shifting them to
the northwest. Frontal passage should be around 21-22Z from KPIA-
KSPI, ranging to around 00-01Z at KCMI. Immediately behind the
front, a few hours of MVFR ceilings appear likely before skies
clear. Winds will trend back toward the southwest overnight and
become a bit gusty again late Monday morning, although not as much
as today.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1048 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CST
WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY AT
ROCKFORD AND WE ARE SEEING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO
EVEN A 61 A KMDW AS OF 1045 AM PER 1 MINUTE KMDW OBS. SW WINDS
ARE INCREASING AREA WIDE AS THE 925-850 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS
BEFORE WE START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE COLD FRONT MID
AFTERNOON. KLOT VWP DOES DEPICT 925-850 WINDS DECREASING SOME THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT WE ARE STARTING TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A NARROW WINDOW AS WELL OF WIND GUSTS
GETTING INTO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AS AS A NOTE...THERE WILL BE A
WEAKENING OF THE WINDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
WAVE WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY EVENING UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION.
HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC RUC FORECAST
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GETTING QUITE STEEP THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS. THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT
THE ACTIVITY IN MINNESOTA...CURRENTLY QUITE ROBUST...FROM HOLDING
TOGETHER QUITE AS WELL IN OUR AREA.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
411 AM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH...WHICH CERTAINLY LOOKS POISED TO COME IN LIKE A LION THIS
YEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...POORLY TIMED SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY MORNING
MARCH 1ST...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON THURSDAY.
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER LITTLE IF ANY SNOWPACK WILL SUPPORT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
WARMTH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MILD START. ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS ALSO
WERE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DESPITE THE LINGERING SNOW
COVER FROM THE EVENT LAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
QUICKLY SNOW COVER IS ERODING AND HOW THIS MIGHT MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. WILL PLAN TO KEEP NW INDIANA
JUST A BIT COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE US PLAYING CATCH UP THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
START TO CLIMB RAPIDLY IN THAT AREA AS WELL.
IT IS INTERESTING AND SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT RECORD HIGHS ON
FEBRUARY 28 FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED BASED ON VALUES FOR SURROUNDING DAYS...AND
EVEN COMPARED TO THE 29TH WHICH HAS HAD FAR FEWER CHANCES TO
EXPERIENCE CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES. FOR ROCKFORD TODAY THE RECORD
HIGH FROM 1932 IS JUST 56 WHILE IT IS 68 ON THE 27TH...64 ON THE
29TH...AND 66 ON MARCH 1ST. FOR CHICAGO TODAY THE RECORD HIGH FROM
ALL THE WAY BACK IN 1895 IS JUST 61 WHILE IT IS 75 ON THE 27TH...65
ON THE 29TH...AND 71 ON MARCH 1ST. SO WHILE IT IS LIKELY THOUGH OF
COURSE NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN WE WILL END UP BREAKING THESE RECORD
HIGHS...THEY DO APPEAR SOMEWHAT OVERDUE TO BE BROKEN FOR THIS DATE.
THE OTHER AND ACTUALLY MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...LIKELY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH
SUSTAINED OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
ZONE. AGAIN...WITH SNOW COVER OVER NW INDIANA THE SOMEWHAT
INHIBITED MIXING MEANS GUSTS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG AS IN AREAS
FARTHER WEST.
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN SOME BRIEF
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT AND RECOVER JUST AS QUICKLY MONDAY WHEN WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT BUT ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC...BUT SNOW
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS AND UNFORTUNATELY BE
FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD AROUND THE MORNING RUSH.
LENNING
&&
.LONG TERM...
411 AM CST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK
LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MILDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND UNDER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR NEXT
SUNDAY.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
557 PM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS THE WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS...ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONE MINUTE WINDS/GUSTS AT ORD HAVE BEEN STRONG/GUSTY MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG WINDS WILL
BECOME IS A BIT LOW...BUT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 30 KT RANGE LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH SOME...BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG...AND DIRECTIONS
WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FRONT/WIND DIRECTION SHIFT...BUT
TIMING MAY NEED SOME REFINEMENT AS IT THE FRONT ARRIVES. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING TURNING WESTERLY AROUND 10KT OVERNIGHT. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 30 KT BY
MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO A MID DECK LATER TODAY WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR CIGS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS ALSO WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHORT TERM/HI RES
GUIDANCE IS FOCUSED ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ADJUSTED TIMING FOR VICINITY MENTION BUT IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE THEN A SHORT DURATION TEMPO OR PERHAPS EVEN PREVAILING
SHOWERS WILL BE NEEDED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THESE COULD BE
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. PRECIP ALSO APPEARS TO DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RFD...SO DRY FORECAST THERE. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
422 AM...A COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS LOW WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND DID NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THIS LOW WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS THEN REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 4 PM
SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
10 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM SUNDAY TO 9
AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1015 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Latest surface map showed cold front extending from near Kansas City
northeast into east central Wisconsin. Pressure gradient ahead of
this front resulting in wind gusts already around 35 mph in
several locations, and 10 am observation at Decatur came in with
45 mph. Latest HRRR guidance has the front coming into the
northwest CWA around mid-afternoon. The stronger wind gusts of
40-45 mph will continue until then, when the gradient relaxes a
bit immediately ahead of the front. Wind advisory was adjusted
earlier to include the entire CWA, and no changes will be made to
the wind advisory valid period at this time.
Adjustments to the hourly grids have been sent for the sky trends
and the rain chances, adjusting the eastern CWA to focus more on
in the late afternoon. Temperatures appear on track and only made
minor adjustments for the hourly grids the next couple hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
Will be plenty of sunshine today and along with strong waa due to
south-southwest winds, just ahead of a weak front moving through the
area this afternoon. Gradient ahead of the front is very tight and
strong winds are expected. Model data/guidance and bufkit soundings
support sustained winds or around 30 mph with possible gusts up to
near 45 mph from later this morning through early afternoon. Once
the front gets closer to the CWA, strongest winds shift into
eastern IL with gradient loosening some. Will be going with a wind
advisory for later this morning through early afternoon over most
of central and eastern IL. Only counties not included will be
along I-70 and to the south...southeast IL. Front does not have a
lot of moisture to work with until this afternoon as it gets thru
most of the area. However, there is still a front, so going with
slight chance of showers along front, mainly east of the IL river
and all the way to the IN border.
Temps will be much warm than yesterday and with all the snow now
melted and strong waa and lots of sunshine, believe temps will
actually get warmer than first forecast. So have increased high
temps across the region for this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
A blustery evening becomes dominated by northwesterly winds and is a
bit cooler than the night before with cool air filtering in behind
the front. Models are inconsistent with the development of the
precip along and ahead of the boundary even going into the evening
hours. GFS and ECMWF slightly wetter than the unusually drier NAM.
BUFKit soundings not working with much in the way of moisture, but
cannot leave out a low chance in the far east in the early evening
hours. Otherwise cooler tonight...but the cool air does not take
over as Monday is slated to be another mild day with highs in the
upper 50s/lower 60s with the winds becoming southerly again as the
brief surface ridging slips to the east. The next storm developing
over the Plains starts to take shape and precip chances spread into
the region Monday night and into Tuesday. Models seem to be coming
around to a less intensely developed surface system with the open
wave aloft. Will be moving through the mean flow rather quickly and
wrapping up by Tuesday night. Forecast soundings are not cold enough
to warrant a long time frame of snow. The QPF fields are slowly
losing the look of the deformation zone. Precip will start as rain
and as cold air moves in to the back side of the system, rain or
snow will be NW of the I-55 corridor. However, even if the snow
were to develop, very little if any accumulation is expected in such
a wet environment. Early Wednesday morning clearly the coldest
morning in the forecast with the chilly Arctic air in place behind
the boundary. A quick clipper Wed night and into Thursday brings
the next chances for accumulating snow, should the thermal profile
hold. Wed and Thu chilly with highs in the 30s/lower 40s, slightly
below seasonal norms. Temps begin warming at the end of the week and
into next weekend with the warm air from the western ridge slowly
making its way into the Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs as a
cold front quickly pushes through the are this afternoon. Clear
skies will give way to some SCT-BKN cirrus ahead of the front,
then stratocu or cu around 3.5 to 4kft will develop just ahead of
the front and continue into the afternoon. Once the front moves
through the area during the afternoon, clouds should become more
scattered and then become clear during the evening hours. Some
very light pcpn is possible at all sites except PIA, but chances
small enough that an addition to the TAFs is not warranted at this
time. Wind speeds will be the big issue. Winds will be south-
southwest ahead of the front and then become west to northwest
behind the front this afternoon and into this evening. Wind speeds
will quickly increase and become gusty to around 34kts this
morning. Then around noon speeds will increase more and reach up
to 39kts at all sites for the afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease
as the front pushes past during the late afternoon/evening time
frame. Wind gusts will disappear and overall speeds will drop,
sometime in the evening around 03z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
630 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
A WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A NARROW AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INDIANA AND MICHIGAN STATE
LINE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH 1 TO 3 POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ICE
ACCUMULATION COULD APPROACH A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN
INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
30S SOUTH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS AMONG MODELS
FOR SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS MAINLY DEALS WITH LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC LOW TRACK WHICH ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA AS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OVER TOP
ALONG WITH CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW LINE. AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET EXPECTED NEAR THE INDIANA AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO BUT COULD STILL VARY DEPENDING ON STORM
TRACK.
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING ALONG FRONT EVIDENT OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT PCPN ALONG LEADING BOUNDARY.
HIRES GUIDANCE TENDS TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS PCPN AND RADAR
TRENDS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA. WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE NORTH. BETTER FORCING FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPS LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM. FGEN RESPONSE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS
OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR SEVERAL RUNS WITH DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
PLACEMENT. MOST GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO OUR MI
COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH DEEPER COLD WEDGE IN PLACE BUT DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT...A MIX IS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.
WEAKLY COUPLED JET ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
WILL AID IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. FROM OUR VANTAGE POINT
IT APPEARS THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE A NICE COMPROMISE WITH SFC LOW
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH TAKING LOW FROM
NEAR SPRINGFIELD IL AT 12Z TO KGUS AT 18Z AND WEST OF KCLE BY
00Z/02. GFS REMAINS SOUTH WITH LOW JUST NORTH OF OHIO RIVER AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OH BY 00Z/02. THE NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH WARM SURGE ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE AND IS TAKING
MOST PCPN OVER TO FZRA ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE COLDER AND MAINLY SNOW. FOR THE POWT TOP DOWN PROCESS DID BLEND
IN RUC DATA AS FAR AS IT WILL GO OUT WITH THE COLDER GFS WHICH IS
CLOSER TO ECMWF IN THERMAL FIELDS THAN NAM. THE MAX LAYER
TEMPERATURE FOR THE RUC WAS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AS
WELL. CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH
MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET AT ONSET CENTRAL. COLDER AIR
THEN WRAPS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON CHANGING ANY RESIDUAL PCPN OVER
TO ALL SNOW.
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...MOST 12Z GUIDANCE DID TREND TOWARD LESS
PRECIPITATION WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION. NAM12 OF COURSE THE
OUTLIER WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTH. HIRES ARW SUPPORTS
THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF GFS...ECMWF AND GEM AND FORECAST FOR NOW HAS
LEANED TOWARD THESE MODELS USING WPC GUIDANCE. SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 2-
4 INCHES POSSIBLE FAR NORTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL DELTA T VALUES BUT DECENT CYCLONIC FETCH AND GOOD DGZ.
KEPT POPS IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH ACCUMS AN INCH OR
LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
MARGINAL CONDITIONS TO BEGIN WITH...A FEW TENTHS AT BEST AND
LIKELY JUST FLURRIES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SECOND PACIFIC WAVE SET TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY IN SIMILAR FASHION TO TOMORROWS EVENT. LATEST
MODELS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD...CLIPPING MOST
OF OUR CWA WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME HEALTHY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...GOOD UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH POTENTIAL FOR COUPLED
JETS...A RELATIVELY DEEP PV ANOMALY...STRONG MIDLEVEL CVA...AND A
DECENT STRIPE OF DEFORMATION/FGEN ON NORTHERN FLANK OF SURFACE LOW.
MAIN QUESTION WILL OF COURSE BE EXACT TRACK AND THE QUALITY OF
FORCING THIS FAR NORTH. LATEST 12Z MODELS ACTUALLY IN DECENT
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING PARENT JET ENERGY IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
AND ISSUES SEEN WITH CURRENT EVENT. DID ADD SOME LIKELY POPS TO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS AT THIS
RANGE. MAY BE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. GOOD (OR BAD?) NEWS
IS THAT THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIP DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM TO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND NARROW DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BUT MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO DISCUSS DETAILS AT
THIS POINT. OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE SHARP WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS AND MORE 60+
DEGREE WEATHER EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY BY TUES-WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
630 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF SBN
WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N/NE. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHWARD AND PASS THROUGH FWA BY 03Z. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO BOTH TAF
LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL OFFERING VARYING
SOLUTIONS AS TO PRECIP TYPE...WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO CURRENT GRIDS
WHICH LEAN TOWARD A MAINLY SNOW EVENT AT SBN AND RAIN AT FWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A SMALL WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FZRA MIXED IN AT SBN 12-15Z.
EXPECT FWA TO TRANSITION TO SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE
BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. ARRIVAL OF PRECIP WILL BRING BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY TO
1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ003>007.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JAL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. RUC AND
HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING OVER WEST
CENTRAL AREA AND EXPANDING EASTWARD. WENT WITH HIGHER CONSRAW POPS
GIVEN MOS AND HIRES TRENDS.
FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WREAKING HAVOC ON DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME CONSENSUS HAS BEEN REACHED
AMONG MODELS ON BASIC SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...MANY DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS AND STILL WITHIN EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DESPITE BEING WITHIN 48 HOURS OF PCPN ONSET.
MOST OF THIS DISPARITY COMES FROM FACT THAT MAIN JET ENERGY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND WILL NOT BE SAMPLED FULLY
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY. THIS ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH THEN EAST OUT OF THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES IS
PROVING PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL MODELS. WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JET WILL
LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW AND ITS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS AN ISSUE AMONG MODELS.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
DEVELOPS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. FGEN FORCING WITH THIS ADVECTION PROCESS WILL LEAD
TO EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH TO BEGIN. AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVIER. COMBINATION OF SFC
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C WILL LEAD TO AREA OF
FREEZING RAIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. 12Z SUITE HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND ARE ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISING A
STRONG WARM SURGE THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY. GEM AND ECMWF
ARE STRONGER WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN FASTER TUESDAY. THESE LATTER
MODELS ARE GENERALLY PREFERRED BUT THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING A PERIOD
OF MIXED/FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME OF
THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TO GET MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND FULLY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS GIVEN COMPLEX UPPER
AIR PATTERN AND INTERACTIONS. STILL RETAINED ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND
DEPENDING ON FINAL TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS A NARROW RIBBON OF ICE
ACCUMS COULD COME CLOSE TO 0.20-0.25 INCHES. AGAIN...LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY BUT SOME TYPE OF HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY GIVEN MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS BEFORE
ENDING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THIS PERIOD REMAIN MURKY GIVEN MODEL
DISPARITY BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WITH WRAP
AROUND AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.
STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS IN THE MIDST OF A HIGHLY ENERGETIC
PATTERN WEDNESDAY AMID ERN CONUS TROF/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
QUICK RETURN TO NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION W/ RETURN
FLOW/WAA REGIME ESTABLISHING.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AS
LOW AS -15C...WHICH COULD BRING A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER TO FAVORED
AREAS. GRIDS SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE SPEED/EVOLUTION OF THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SRN CANADA
WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC/FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC
DETAILS AT THIS POINT...WITH LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD
SUPPORT NICE DENDRITIC GROWTH...HOWEVER STRENGTH OF FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CURTAIL ANY SPECIFICS BEYOND CONSENSUS MODEL
BLEND CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WED-
FRI ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS/20S...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE REGION.
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT FRIDAY/SAT TIMEFRAME WITH RIDGING/WAA
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING A PASSING WAVE SOMETIME
SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN PINPOINTING DETAILS
WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD 6-7 DAYS OUT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY AND INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S SUNDAY.
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NUDGED
WINDS UPWARDS AT KSBN WITH STRONGER MIXING OCCURRING THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EITHER SIDE OF 00Z MON TO HELP
CALM THE HIGHER GUSTS DOWN AND REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS. LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR (PRESENTLY LITTLE SIGN OF THESE CONDITIONS UPSTREAM)
POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY ON MONDAY WITH NW FLOW
QUICKLY BACKING TO THE SW DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ017-018-
023>027-032>034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>009-012>016-020-022.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ004-005-015-
016-024-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
COLD FRONT AT 11 AM WAS ROUGHLY JUST NW OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO
VINTON. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE STRONG OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT SO FAR NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
OUTSIDE A FEW SITES REPORTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH FOR
LESS THAN ONE HOUR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A BAND OF
THICK CI REACHING SW TO NE OVER THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER
AREA OF THICKENING MID CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL IA.
THIS HAS SLIGHTLY SQUELCHED TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS LIMITED THE
MIX DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SO FAR.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY TWEAK MAX TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD...ADJUST WINDS DOWNWARD AND ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WELL POST FRONTAL THAT ARE OCCURRING IN NW AND N
CENTRAL IA. A SEPARATE AXIS OF STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS AHEAD
OF A PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER THE NEB/IA BORDER IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSH
THROUGH THE EAST EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE TIMING WILL NOT BE
OPTIMAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING TRENDS CLOSELY WITH THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA AS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF AND PERHAPS DIMINISH
A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DIRECTIONAL SHIFT
TO W-NW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP INTACT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
A VORT MAX IS MOVING ACROSS NE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AIDED IN
KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS. THIS WIND....VORT MAX AND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL SERVE AS A LAUNCHING BOARD FOR
TODAYS TEMPS AND WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS TODAY COULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE
ARE STARTING OUT IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME AREAS. ALSO WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE QC. NORTH OF THE QC THERE
IS A SCHC FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AND VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRST THE TEMPS...GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO LOW FOR MOST SITES
YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN DELTA BEING 4 DEGREES. YESTERDAY AM IT
APPEARED THAT THE MESOSCALE HOURLY MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
TEMPS AND WINDS FOR YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO START TODAY WITH THE RUC
WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RUC IS HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG MIXING AND
TEMPS STARTING IN THE 50S I THINK THE RUC IS NOT FAR OFF. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TEMPS WOULD BE ANY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING SUNLIGHT. REGARDLESS...WE ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY.
NOW THE WINDS. WINDS HAVE NOT CEASED THIS AM. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE RUC HAS 55 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
OTHER GUIDANCE HAS UPPER TO MID 40 KNOTS IN THIS LAYER. SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL DEFINITELY REACH THE 30 MPH
SUSTAINED CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT IN THIS AREA. AM
CONCERNED THAT WE ARE TOO LOW ON WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FROPA
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND SWITCH THE WIND DIRECTION. THIS
SWITCH WILL STILL KEEP US GUSTY. THINK THAT WE ARE SET UP FOR A
WARM...AND QUITE WINDY DAY AND THAT MY WINDS MAY BE UNDER DONE.
FINALLY THE VORT MAX AND FROPA. HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VORTMAX. LOOKING AT MODEL RH
AND SOUNDINGS WE STAY INCREDIBLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH THE LLVL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORMIDABLE...I THINK SCHC POPS IS WARRANTED BECAUSE OF
THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE HIRES MODELS. I THINK THAT SPRINKLES
MAY BE ALL THAT WE GET DUE TO THE LACK OF SATURATION. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE THE LEAST OF ALL IMPACTS WEATHERWISE TODAY
WITH THE WINDS BEING THE MOST IMPACT.
AFTER THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. THINK THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL SO
THAT WILL NEED TO BE KEPT AN EYE ON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT WILL AID IN SENDING COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL NOTED IN 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WHILE NAM IS
CLOSE IF NOT A BIT SLOWER WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. USING BLENDED
APPROACH WOULD BRING FRONT INTO NORTHERN CWA TOWARD MIDDAY OR
EARLY PM THEN SAGGING SOUTH. PRE-FRONTAL... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DEEPER MIXING WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH OF I-80.
MOST CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST AND BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE
ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WHERE READINGS COULD RANGE FROM THE MID
40S SHOULD FASTER TIMING VERIFY TO THE MID 50S WITH SLOWER TIMING.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRAW DOWN OF SURFACE DEWPTS WITH THE
DEEPER MIXING MAY BRING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER MAINLY SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SAGGING
SOUTH THROUGH CWA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE... STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF H25 JET. THE JET STRUCTURE AND FAVORED QUADRANT WOULD FAVOR ANY
SURFACE WAVE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH. THUS... ANTICIPATE PROGRESSIVE
FGEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT EXITING EASTERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING. AMERICAN MODELS
QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCH WITHIN THE BAND SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN
MODEST FORCING AND LAYER PWATS OF ONLY 0.25 INCH TO 0.4 INCH.
DESPITE THIS CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT BURST OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN ALSO PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS CANT RULE OUT SNOW ACCUMS OF A QUICK
1-2 INCHES WITH MOST FAVORED AREA TO SEE THESE ACCUMS BEING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LESSER AMOUNTS IF ANY FURTHER SOUTH
DUE TO MORE MARGINAL GROUND AND BL TEMPS AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
MIX INITIALLY AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN PRECIP TYPE AND
AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STILL ON MAGNITUDE AND TRACK
OF FRONTAL WAVE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TUESDAY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPS ALTHOUGH NOT FAR OFF FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SUGGESTED AROUND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN. OTHERWISE... MAINLY DRY. BY THE WEEKEND SOME
INDICATIONS OF LESS AMPLIFICATION /SEMI-ZONAL/ WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING
THROUGH WI WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE THE WIND
DIRECTION FROM SW TO WEST...AND THEN NW BY EVENING. AN AXIS OF LOW
CLOUDS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF MFR
CIGS AND THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH AT THIS
TIME LOOK TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 MID OT LATE AFTERNOON AND
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE LIGHT FROM
THE W AND THEN SW. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WARRANTING ANOTHER CHANGE GROUP MID MORNING
MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 28...
MOLINE.........66 IN 1932
CEDAR RAPIDS...64 IN 1932
DUBUQUE........62 IN 1895
BURLINGTON.....69 IN 1932
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 29...
MOLINE.........67 IN 1972
CEDAR RAPIDS...65 IN 1972
DUBUQUE........60 IN 2000
BURLINGTON.....72 IN 1972
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-LEE.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-WARREN.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
539 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
A VORT MAX IS MOVING ACROSS NE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AIDED IN
KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS. THIS WIND....VORT MAX AND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL SERVE AS A LAUNCHING BOARD FOR
TODAYS TEMPS AND WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS TODAY COULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE
ARE STARTING OUT IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME AREAS. ALSO WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE QC. NORTH OF THE QC THERE
IS A SCHC FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AND VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRST THE TEMPS...GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO LOW FOR MOST SITES
YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN DELTA BEING 4 DEGREES. YESTERDAY AM IT
APPEARED THAT THE MESOSCALE HOURLY MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
TEMPS AND WINDS FOR YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO START TODAY WITH THE RUC
WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RUC IS HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG MIXING AND
TEMPS STARTING IN THE 50S I THINK THE RUC IS NOT FAR OFF. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TEMPS WOULD BE ANY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING SUNLIGHT. REGARDLESS...WE ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY.
NOW THE WINDS. WINDS HAVE NOT CEASED THIS AM. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE RUC HAS 55 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
OTHER GUIDANCE HAS UPPER TO MID 40 KNOTS IN THIS LAYER. SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL DEFINITELY REACH THE 30 MPH
SUSTAINED CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT IN THIS AREA. AM
CONCERNED THAT WE ARE TOO LOW ON WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FROPA
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND SWITCH THE WIND DIRECTION. THIS
SWITCH WILL STILL KEEP US GUSTY. THINK THAT WE ARE SET UP FOR A
WARM...AND QUITE WINDY DAY AND THAT MY WINDS MAY BE UNDER DONE.
FINALLY THE VORT MAX AND FROPA. HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VORTMAX. LOOKING AT MODEL RH
AND SOUNDINGS WE STAY INCREDIBLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH THE LLVL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORMIDABLE...I THINK SCHC POPS IS WARRANTED BECAUSE OF
THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE HIRES MODELS. I THINK THAT SPRINKLES
MAY BE ALL THAT WE GET DUE TO THE LACK OF SATURATION. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE THE LEAST OF ALL IMPACTS WEATHERWISE TODAY
WITH THE WINDS BEING THE MOST IMPACT.
AFTER THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. THINK THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL SO
THAT WILL NEED TO BE KEPT AN EYE ON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT WILL AID IN SENDING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL NOTED IN 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF WHILE NAM IS CLOSE IF NOT A BIT SLOWER WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS.
USING BLENDED APPROACH WOULD BRING FRONT INTO NORTHERN CWA TOWARD MIDDAY
OR EARLY PM THEN SAGGING SOUTH. PRE-FRONTAL... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DEEPER MIXING WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH OF I-80. MOST CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST
AND BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WHERE READINGS
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S SHOULD FASTER TIMING VERIFY TO THE MID 50S WITH
SLOWER TIMING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRAW DOWN OF SURFACE DEWPTS WITH THE
DEEPER MIXING MAY BRING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED GRASS FIRE DANGER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
CWA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE... STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET. THE JET STRUCTURE AND FAVORED QUADRANT WOULD
FAVOR ANY SURFACE WAVE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH. THUS... ANTICIPATE PROGRESSIVE
FGEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
EXITING EASTERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING. AMERICAN MODELS QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCH
WITHIN THE BAND SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND LAYER PWATS OF
ONLY 0.25 INCH TO 0.4 INCH. DESPITE THIS CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT BURST OF
MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN ALSO PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THUS CANT RULE OUT SNOW ACCUMS OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH MOST FAVORED
AREA TO SEE THESE ACCUMS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LESSER AMOUNTS
IF ANY FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO MORE MARGINAL GROUND AND BL TEMPS AND ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR MIX INITIALLY AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STILL ON MAGNITUDE AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
TEMPS ALTHOUGH NOT FAR OFF FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
IS SUGGESTED AROUND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. OTHERWISE... MAINLY
DRY. BY THE WEEKEND SOME INDICATIONS OF LESS AMPLIFICATION /SEMI-ZONAL/ WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 14Z AND THEN THE STRONG WINDS AND FROPA DURING THE DAY.
SUSTAINED SW WINDS AREA WIDE IN THE MID 20 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH00Z
MONDAY. GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT BRL.
WIND SHIFT OCCURS AND WINDS WILL STAY UP AFTER THIS. GUIDANCE
HINTS AND MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z MON ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES. HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS AT CID AND DBQ.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 28...
MOLINE.........66 IN 1932
CEDAR RAPIDS...64 IN 1932
DUBUQUE........62 IN 1895
BURLINGTON.....69 IN 1932
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 29...
MOLINE.........67 IN 1972
CEDAR RAPIDS...65 IN 1972
DUBUQUE........60 IN 2000
BURLINGTON.....72 IN 1972
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-LEE.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-WARREN.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
407 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
A VORT MAX IS MOVING ACROSS NE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AIDED IN
KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS. THIS WIND....VORT MAX AND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL SERVE AS A LAUNCHING BOARD FOR
TODAYS TEMPS AND WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS TODAY COULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE
ARE STARTING OUT IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME AREAS. ALSO WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE QC. NORTH OF THE QC THERE
IS A SCHC FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AND VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRST THE TEMPS...GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO LOW FOR MOST SITES
YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN DELTA BEING 4 DEGREES. YESTERDAY AM IT
APPEARED THAT THE MESOSCALE HOURLY MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
TEMPS AND WINDS FOR YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO START TODAY WITH THE RUC
WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RUC IS HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG MIXING AND
TEMPS STARTING IN THE 50S I THINK THE RUC IS NOT FAR OFF. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TEMPS WOULD BE ANY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING SUNLIGHT. REGARDLESS...WE ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY.
NOW THE WINDS. WINDS HAVE NOT CEASED THIS AM. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE RUC HAS 55 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
OTHER GUIDANCE HAS UPPER TO MID 40 KNOTS IN THIS LAYER. SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL DEFINITELY REACH THE 30 MPH
SUSTAINED CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT IN THIS AREA. AM
CONCERNED THAT WE ARE TOO LOW ON WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FROPA
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND SWITCH THE WIND DIRECTION. THIS
SWITCH WILL STILL KEEP US GUSTY. THINK THAT WE ARE SET UP FOR A
WARM...AND QUITE WINDY DAY AND THAT MY WINDS MAY BE UNDER DONE.
FINALLY THE VORT MAX AND FROPA. HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VORTMAX. LOOKING AT MODEL RH
AND SOUNDINGS WE STAY INCREDIBLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH THE LLVL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORMIDABLE...I THINK SCHC POPS IS WARRANTED BECAUSE OF
THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE HIRES MODELS. I THINK THAT SPRINKLES
MAY BE ALL THAT WE GET DUE TO THE LACK OF SATURATION. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE THE LEAST OF ALL IMPACTS WEATHERWISE TODAY
WITH THE WINDS BEING THE MOST IMPACT.
AFTER THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. THINK THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL SO
THAT WILL NEED TO BE KEPT AN EYE ON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT WILL AID IN SENDING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL NOTED IN 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF WHILE NAM IS CLOSE IF NOT A BIT SLOWER WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS.
USING BLENDED APPROACH WOULD BRING FRONT INTO NORTHERN CWA TOWARD MIDDAY
OR EARLY PM THEN SAGGING SOUTH. PRE-FRONTAL... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DEEPER MIXING WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH OF I-80. MOST CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST
AND BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WHERE READINGS
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S SHOULD FASTER TIMING VERIFY TO THE MID 50S WITH
SLOWER TIMING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRAW DOWN OF SURFACE DEWPTS WITH THE
DEEPER MIXING MAY BRING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED GRASS FIRE DANGER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
CWA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE... STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET. THE JET STRUCTURE AND FAVORED QUADRANT WOULD
FAVOR ANY SURFACE WAVE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH. THUS... ANTICIPATE PROGRESSIVE
FGEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
EXITING EASTERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING. AMERICAN MODELS QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCH
WITHIN THE BAND SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND LAYER PWATS OF
ONLY 0.25 INCH TO 0.4 INCH. DESPITE THIS CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT BURST OF
MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN ALSO PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THUS CANT RULE OUT SNOW ACCUMS OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH MOST FAVORED
AREA TO SEE THESE ACCUMS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LESSER AMOUNTS
IF ANY FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO MORE MARGINAL GROUND AND BL TEMPS AND ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR MIX INITIALLY AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STILL ON MAGNITUDE AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
TEMPS ALTHOUGH NOT FAR OFF FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
IS SUGGESTED AROUND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. OTHERWISE... MAINLY
DRY. BY THE WEEKEND SOME INDICATIONS OF LESS AMPLIFICATION /SEMI-ZONAL/ WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
HAVE MAINTAINED LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z
SUNDAY...SUPPORTED BY BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VWP WINDS ABOVE 50 KTS
OFF THE DECK. A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND GUSTING NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KTS. LOW VFR
TO POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 28...
MOLINE.........66 IN 1932
CEDAR RAPIDS...64 IN 1932
DUBUQUE........62 IN 1895
BURLINGTON.....69 IN 1932
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 29...
MOLINE.........67 IN 1972
CEDAR RAPIDS...65 IN 1972
DUBUQUE........60 IN 2000
BURLINGTON.....72 IN 1972
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR DES MOINES-LEE.
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-WARREN.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
515 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IA...ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO
WESTERN SD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN KS...INTO SW KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN CO/KS BY 12Z TUE. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP AND WITH LIMITED
CAPPING...STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY FLIRT WITH FAR SOUTHERN KS AFTER 03Z. BOTH NAM
AND RAP AGREE ON BETWEEN 1,000-2,000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME DIME SIZE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KS.
WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK TO NW FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED WITH YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THU. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO WARM TEMPS UP WED WITH
AREAS WEST OF I-135 GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S. THESE WARMER TEMPS
ARE SUPPORTED BY 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPS ALONG WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY
AFFECT ONLY NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS. SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI. ALL
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A MORE ROBUST
TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MUCH
WEAKER IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE WARMEST.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS TO
SOUTHWESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER EFFECTS.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY YIELD SOME VIRGA...SPRINKLES OR
A BRIEF VERY LIGHT SHOWER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TERMINALS TONIGHT (RSL/GBD/SLN/HUT/ICT). STRONGER 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TARGETS FAR SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL.
THINK THE BRUNT OF THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF CNU
TERMINAL...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS EVENING.
JMC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED FOR TUE AND
ESPECIALLY WED.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
TUE. AFTERNOON SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE SPEEDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE
30-40% RANGE TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER AREA WIDE.
THE BIGGER FIRE CONCERN DAY WILL BE WED WHEN WINDS FLIP BACK
AROUND TO THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ON WED AFTERNOON ALONG AND SE OF THE
KS TURNPIKE WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN
THE 20-30% RANGE TO PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO THE
UPPER END OF VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH
EXTREME. THEREFORE...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED BOTH TUE AND WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 56 34 68 / 20 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 54 32 68 / 20 0 0 0
NEWTON 34 53 32 66 / 20 0 0 0
ELDORADO 36 54 32 65 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 39 56 33 68 / 30 10 0 0
RUSSELL 32 56 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 35 56 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 33 52 31 66 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 34 52 31 67 / 20 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 41 55 31 64 / 40 20 0 0
CHANUTE 38 52 30 62 / 30 20 0 0
IOLA 36 50 29 62 / 20 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 40 53 29 63 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1251 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES THIS MORNING. LOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
GRIDS TO MAKE SURE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED AND
BLENDED WELL INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO RE-ISSUE THE SPS TO INCLUDE LOW
HUMIDITIES AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SOME DISCUSSION WITH THE FOREST SERVICE AND A COUPLE OF THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS MORNING...IT WAS DECIDED THAT WHILE
WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AND RH SHOULD BE LOW...OVERALL WE SHOULD
FALL SOMEWHAT SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. FOREST SERVICE ALSO
CONCLUDED THAT FUEL MOISTURES WERE STILL FAIRLY WET ACROSS THE
REGION...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DECISION FROM UPGRADING TO A RED
FLAG. INSTEAD...WILL RUN THE SPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANY POTENTIAL WIND/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IF WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEYOND THE FORECAST...AND/OR IF RH LEVELS FALL BELOW THE
FORECAST...WILL RE-COORDINATE AND RE-EVALUATE.
ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD. NO FORECAST
PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS. TO THE NORTHWEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPRAWLING HIGH COVERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AN INVERSION
IS KEEPING THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AT THE SFC. THIS HAS SET UP A
RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BUT IN THE MID 40S ON MANY OF THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE WEST. SOME VALLEYS IN
THE WEST...LIKE MONTICELLO...DECOUPLED EARLY...SET THEIR LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM POTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM EACH OF THE MODELS. A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PASSES...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR
WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT...SUNNY...BREEZY...
AND WARM LATE FEBRUARY DAY. WINDS MAY PUSH 30 TO 35 MPH IN GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. FOR THIS...AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED AS RH
WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO CONSULT WITH THE FOREST
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING ABOUT THE FUEL MOISTURES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY WITH AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN PASSING
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY...ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON GOING AND SOME CAA EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID RANGE OF
CHANCE...FOR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. OPTED TO GO MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. 00Z
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SWATH
OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. FORCING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DISCOUNTING THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...IT DOES
APPEAR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION LAGS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. DOESN`T
MEAN WE COULDN`T SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLDER
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE
20S. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH...LEADING UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. LOOK FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY
PRE-DAWN MONDAY. KEPT VCSH WORDING SINCE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND EXACT TIMING/IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD EVEN AFTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 KTS AT ABOUT 2K OFF THE GROUND FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EVENING...SO KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1059 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES THIS MORNING. LOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
GRIDS TO MAKE SURE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED AND
BLENDED WELL INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO RE-ISSUE THE SPS TO INCLUDE LOW
HUMIDITIES AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SOME DISCUSSION WITH THE FOREST SERVICE AND A COUPLE OF THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS MORNING...IT WAS DECIDED THAT WHILE
WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AND RH SHOULD BE LOW...OVERALL WE SHOULD
FALL SOMEWHAT SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. FOREST SERVICE ALSO
CONCLUDED THAT FUEL MOISTURES WERE STILL FAIRLY WET ACROSS THE
REGION...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DECISION FROM UPGRADING TO A RED
FLAG. INSTEAD...WILL RUN THE SPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANY POTENTIAL WIND/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IF WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEYOND THE FORECAST...AND/OR IF RH LEVELS FALL BELOW THE
FORECAST...WILL RE-COORDINATE AND RE-EVALUATE.
ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD. NO FORECAST
PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS. TO THE NORTHWEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPRAWLING HIGH COVERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AN INVERSION
IS KEEPING THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AT THE SFC. THIS HAS SET UP A
RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BUT IN THE MID 40S ON MANY OF THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE WEST. SOME VALLEYS IN
THE WEST...LIKE MONTICELLO...DECOUPLED EARLY...SET THEIR LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM POTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM EACH OF THE MODELS. A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PASSES...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR
WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT...SUNNY...BREEZY...
AND WARM LATE FEBRUARY DAY. WINDS MAY PUSH 30 TO 35 MPH IN GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. FOR THIS...AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED AS RH
WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO CONSULT WITH THE FOREST
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING ABOUT THE FUEL MOISTURES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY WITH AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN PASSING
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY...ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON GOING AND SOME CAA EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID RANGE OF
CHANCE...FOR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. OPTED TO GO MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. 00Z
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SWATH
OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. FORCING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DISCOUNTING THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...IT DOES
APPEAR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION LAGS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. DOESN`T
MEAN WE COULDN`T SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLDER
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE
20S. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH...LEADING UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 KTS AT ABOUT 2K OFF THE GROUND WITH A
SIMILAR CONCERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
710 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS. TO THE NORTHWEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPRAWLING HIGH COVERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AN INVERSION
IS KEEPING THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AT THE SFC. THIS HAS SET UP A
RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BUT IN THE MID 40S ON MANY OF THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE WEST. SOME VALLEYS IN
THE WEST...LIKE MONTICELLO...DECOUPLED EARLY...SET THEIR LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM POTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM EACH OF THE MODELS. A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PASSES...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR
WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT...SUNNY...BREEZY...
AND WARM LATE FEBRUARY DAY. WINDS MAY PUSH 30 TO 35 MPH IN GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. FOR THIS...AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED AS RH
WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO CONSULT WITH THE FOREST
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING ABOUT THE FUEL MOISTURES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY WITH AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN PASSING
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY...ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON GOING AND SOME CAA EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID RANGE OF
CHANCE...FOR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. OPTED TO GO MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. 00Z
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SWATH
OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. FORCING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DISCOUNTING THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...IT DOES
APPEAR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION LAGS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. DOESN`T
MEAN WE COULDN`T SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLDER
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE
20S. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH...LEADING UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 KTS AT ABOUT 2K OFF THE GROUND WITH A
SIMILAR CONCERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS. TO THE NORTHWEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPRAWLING HIGH COVERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AN INVERSION
IS KEEPING THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AT THE SFC. THIS HAS SET UP A
RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BUT IN THE MID 40S ON MANY OF THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE WEST. SOME VALLEYS IN
THE WEST...LIKE MONTICELLO...DECOUPLED EARLY...SET THEIR LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM POTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM EACH OF THE MODELS. A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PASSES...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR
WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT...SUNNY...BREEZY...
AND WARM LATE FEBRUARY DAY. WINDS MAY PUSH 30 TO 35 MPH IN GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. FOR THIS...AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED AS RH
WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO CONSULT WITH THE FOREST
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING ABOUT THE FUEL MOISTURES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY WITH AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN PASSING
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY...ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON GOING AND SOME CAA EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID RANGE OF
CHANCE...FOR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. OPTED TO GO MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. 00Z
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SWATH
OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. FORCING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DISCOUNTING THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...IT DOES
APPEAR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION LAGS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. DOESN`T
MEAN WE COULDN`T SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLDER
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE
20S. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH...LEADING UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO
40 KTS AT ABOUT 2K OFF THE GROUND WITH A SIMILAR CONCERN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF SUNDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
406 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS
NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WINDS HAVE JUST SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHWEST AT KFVE. RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEREFORE THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE
AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO
ABOUT THE HOULTON AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY ABOUT DAYBREAK.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND THEN TOWARD FAR NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MOST MAINE THIS EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT STARTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF NORTHERN MOST MAINE...EXCEPT FOR
FAR NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK...WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED SINCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES HERE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SAINT
JOHN VALLEY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND THE MID
30S ACROSS DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS EITHER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY IN FAR NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY OR A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE GASPE PENINSULA
MON MORNING. THERE REMAINS MODEL SPREAD IN THE TRACK AS WELL AS THE
QPF AND PRECIPITATION TYPE MON MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT SNOW WILL
END AS A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY, AND RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS PRESQUE ISLE/CARIBOU AREAS.
THERE IS STILL A REASONABLE CHANCE OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL
OF AROUND 7 OR 8 INCHES IN THE POPULATED AREAS IN ZONE 1
(MADAWASKA/FORT KENT AREAS) AND WILL GO WITH A WARNING FOR ZONE 1.
CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS LESS IN ZONE 2...AND IF
IT WERE TO BE REACHED IT WOULD BE IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF ZONE
NEAR VAN BUREN AND WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. FOR THE
NEXT TIER OF ZONES 2-6 AND 10 THE QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL WILL
DROP OFF RAPIDLY, BUT THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND WILL HAVE ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS INTO MON MORNING. AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY IN THE AFTERNOON ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL
END AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW RACES ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE MON NIGHT, AND IN THE COLD AIR THE SNOW THAT FALL
WILL HAVE HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH,
AND 2-3 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW, IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED EVE. A REVIEW OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FROM 12Z SHOWS A WIDE GOALPOST OF THE SOLUTIONS
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA AND SOME TO THE
EAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT, BUT THE DETAILS AS TO THE AMOUNT AND QPF TYPE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A COUPLE
OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WED AND WED
NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM TAKES ONE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WED
EVENING, AND THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS
EASTPORT AT 00Z THU. THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE EITHER
ADVISORIES OR LOW END WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THU-SAT WILL AVERAGE A
LITTLE BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNON
AND CONTINUE TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS KBGR/KBHB THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS MON MORNING WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH EITHER MVFR OR VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS WED WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR OR VFR BY THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: A HIGH END SCA WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS INTO MON
AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING WITH THE WIND TO DIMINISH
AND THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER IN THE DAY TUE.
THE NEXT LOW MAY BRING GALES TO THE WATERS WED, BUT THE TRACK OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MEZ002>MEZ006 & MEZ010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1215 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THEN
STALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE
OVERNIGHT AND BEFORE STALLING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY. AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS BUT LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
ORGNL DISC: A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...
WITH A COLD FRONT STARTING TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AN INCH OR LESS. ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...AFTER A
PARTLY CLOUDY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. COULD HAVE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SUNDAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH 10 TO 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO THE MID 20S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL SNOW IN
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO RISE ALL NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10F IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST
REGION. LITTLE PRECIP WILL FALL TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT JUST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ENDS UP
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...USING AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL MAJOR
MODELS...WILL TRACK THE LOW FROM INTO FORT KENT AND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN
THE RAIN-SNOW LINE MOVES NORTH OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK...WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH INTACT RATHER THAN CONVERTING TO A
WARNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE UP A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
NEARLY THE IMPACT OF THE LAST STORM. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA AS MEASURABLE SNOW AND
FROZEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TOWARDS
HOULTON.. RAIN WILL FINALLY ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
EXIT QUICKLY BY MIDDAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOW
30S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST. GOOD MIXING AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME FAIRLY HEFTY WIND GUSTS REACHING UP
TO 40 MPH.
THE NORTH-SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S FOR BANGOR TO SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW COMPLEX IN HUDSON`S BAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. IT`S UNLIKELY TO BRING MORE THAN AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW AT THE MOST. WHEN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS WITH SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR IN PLACE TO ENSURE THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS AS SNOW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO MID 30S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUE NIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WED MORN AND AFTN. THE 12Z
EURO IS MUCH CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS IN TERMS OF STORM
TRACK, TAKING THE LOW OVER INTERIOR SRN NEW ENG AND THEN ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE. THE GFS IS A GOOD DEAL FASTER, SINCE IT HAS A
SOMEWHAT WEAKER UPR TROF DRIVING THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER NEG TILT UPR TROF WHICH ISN`T AS FAST TO PUSH EAST. KEPT
POPS LKLY TO DEF BETWEEN 12Z WED TO 00Z THU, BUT START SCALING
POPS DOWN AFTER 00Z THU, WITH MOST PRECIP CLEAR OF THE AREA BY
DAWN THURS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SN SHWRS THU PM AND NIGHT AS THE
BROADER UPR TROF ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, PSBLY ACCOMPANIED
BY A SFC TROF OR REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
AS FOR PTYPE WED AND WED NIGHT, ANYTHING FALLING BEFORE DAWN WED
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. EXPECT RA/SN LINE WILL MOVE NORTH DURING THE
DAY THANKS TO SE-S WINDS. HIGH WATER MARK OF THE RA/SN LINE
CURRENTLY PEGGED ALONG A MOOSEHEAD-PRESQUE ISLE LINE, WHICH AGREES
WELL W/ THE CURRENT STORM TRACK THINKING. EURO AND GFS AGREE ON AN
ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING TOWARD THE REGION FRI AND SAT, BRINGING
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF COLD
WEATHER. THE EURO SHOWS A STRONG LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
COD SAT AND SUN, WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER LOW MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH. FOR NOW, KEPT ANY POPS WELL OFFSHORE AND OUT OF OUR GRIDS,
BUT THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TONIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL CAUSE
IFR TO LIFR VIS NORTH OF HUL. LOW CEILINGS WILL CAUSE LOW MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB AND BGR. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE MOST LIKELY VFR AT ALL SITES WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF HUL. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: ANOTHER SCA STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND GOES INTO TUES
PM. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 AND 10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
647 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POWERFUL SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100-150M AND EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW ALOFT BTWN UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND SOME UPR
RDGING OVER THE W PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTO SE ONTARIO.
SHARP COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES CRASHED THRU THE
CWA THIS MRNG...WITH NW WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 50 TO 55 MPH IN THE
STRONG CAA AND AHEAD OF PRES RISE CENTER FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
12Z H85 TEMPS IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT WERE AS LO AS -25 TO
-30C AT INL AND YPL. ALTHOUGH SN AMOUNTS WERE NOT EXCESSIVE...THE
BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS CAUSED NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN OPEN AREAS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS PASSING THRU THE CWA EARLY
THIS AFTN...SO WINDS/BLSN ARE DIMINISHING. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS...WITH PWATS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.05 INCH AT
YPL AND INL /25 PCT OF NORMAL/...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV HAVE CAUSED THE SN SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME SCATTERED AS WELL DESPITE THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR.
THE SN SHOWERS ARE MORE NMRS TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...WHERE LONGER
FETCH ACRS THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS IS MITIGATING THE LARGER
SCALE DRYING. BUT EVEN HERE THE SN SHOWERS ARE LIGHT. UNDER THE
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP...SKIES ARE MOCLR TO THE E OF ARCTIC HI
PRES CENTER BLDG TOWARD SRN MANITOBA.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS/BLSN FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER TO THE E AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR THRU THE NGT...LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN BASE TO 3-
4K FT AGL AND INFLUX OF DRIER UPSTREAM AIR WL LIMIT LES POPS/
INTENSITY EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF THAT CAN DVLP WITH A
WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT. BEST CHC FOR THE HIER LES POPS WL BE
OVER HOUGHTON/ONTONAGON AND COUNTIES AND IN AREAS NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
SLIDING TO THE S OF THE CWA WITH PASS OVHD...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO DROP
BLO ZERO AWAY FM THE LK SUP INFLUENCE. TENDED TO LOWER FCST MINS A
BIT IN THIS AREA CONSDIERING THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS.
TUE...PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL CONTINUE...HOLDING H85 TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -18C. BUT LINGERING LO INVRN BASE AS WELL AS
INCRSG ACYC H925 FLOW/INFLUX OF DRIER LLVL AIR THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT
LES POPS/INTENSITY. MAX TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...NOT FAR FM 20.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN NOAM WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SRLY
FLOW AND WARMING WILL INCREASE SUN INTO MON AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WEST AND A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES.
TUE NIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...WINDS VEERY MORE NRLY BRING HIGHER LES CHANCES TO THE WEST
INTO MARQUETTE COUNYT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER LATE WINTER DAYTIME
MIXING/DRYING ANY LES BANDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED...KEEPING
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR -17C...THE DIMINISHING WIND FIELDS AND DRY AIR OVER THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT LES GOING INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI UNTIL THE LES MOVES MAINLY OFFSHORE THU.
FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO THE SOUTH
OF UPPER MI.
SUN-MON...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS RIDING DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S MON AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
WITH AN INVERSION SET UP AT ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHENEVER A TERMINAL IS AFFECTED
BY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER NW WINDS...KCMX SHOULD SEE
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THRU TUE MORNING BEFORE CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY TO
VFR TUE AFTN. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN AT TIMES WITH
OCNL REDUCED VIS...BUT VFR VIS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL. AT KIWD...
SLIGHT VEERING OF WINDS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU
THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
ANY LINGERING NW GALES THIS AFTN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DIMINSH BY EVENING WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING IN FROM THE W. AS THE WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH...SO WILL THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. THEN WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS THRU THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH SFC LO PRES OVER NRN
LK MI MOVING E ALONG STALLED FNT THAT PASSED THRU THE AREA LAST NGT.
AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX OVER SE CANADA HAS OVERCOME SOME VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z GRB RAOB TO BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ON THE
SE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...THE SHARP UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DYNAMICS AND UNDER COLDER CLD TOPS SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY HAS
BROUGH A CHANGE TO MAINLY SN. THERE IS AN AREA OF MDT SN OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER H7-75 FGEN. THE PCPN
OVER THE WRN CWA IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE SHARPER FORCING AND
COLDER CLD TOPS ARE SHIFTING TO THE E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLDS. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS
DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA.
AS THE SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/ FGEN EXIT TO THE E
AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE
STEADY SN TO DIMINISH. THE LAST OF THE SET OF CURRENT ADVYS ARE SET
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...AND THIS TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. A TRAILING SFC HI
PRES RDG NOW MOVING INTO MN IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS THE CWA TNGT.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RDG
AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
EXPECTED W WINDS. BUT ANY CLRG WL BE BRIEF AS THE DISTURBANCE NOW
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO
BY 12Z MON. SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/ DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO THE WRN LKS IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MSTR
INFLOW WL BE QUITE LIMITED...THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC ARRIVING WITH THE SFC TROF TOWARD 12Z JUSTIFY
SOME LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATE TNGT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ON MON MRNG AS THE TROF PASSES QUICKLY.
THERE WL BE A QUICK BURST OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LK SUP AS THE TROF PASSES...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IF HEAVIER STRIPE
OF SNOW DEVELOPS AS WRF-ARW/NMM AND NAM SUGGEST.
WINDS AND BLSN/DRSN WILL BE BIGGER ISSUE ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING TO 996-997MB OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TIGHTENS PRESSURE
GRADIENT UP TO 18MB BY 15Z ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR EVIDENCED BY -30C H85 TEMP AT CHURCHHILL
MANITOBA THIS MORNING IS DRAWN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR LEADING TO
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE. NNW-NW WINDS WITHIN MIXED LAYER ARE
UP TO 45-50 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH 40-45 KTS OVER
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC WINDS FM NAM/GEM-
REGIONAL/LOCAL WRF ARE 40 KTS OVER MOST OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
CONTINUED TREND FM MID SHIFT TO RAMP UP WINDS IN THE MORNING AND
SHOW RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY
ADVISORIES UP INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR ZONES...WILL
ISSUE AN SPS. AS EVEN WITH SUB ADVY SNOWFALL...THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS/BLSN WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW/WIND
AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE...LIKELY WILL NEED AN SHORT DURATION
ADVISORY. WINDS MAY ALSO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG LK SUPERIOR AFFECTING COPPER HARBOR AND AREAS
FROM BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT...INCLUDING MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
DESPITE H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -20C...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND MONDAY MORNING SYSTEM SHOULD PUT SIGNIFICANT CRIMP ON LES
CHANCES LATER MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. KEPT SCT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NW WIND AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH OF EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH ALL
LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN DGZ...SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
WINDS WILL RAMP DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY MON EVENING SO ANY BLSN
ISSUES SHOULD WANE BY THAT TIME. TEMPS INLAND OVER WEST AND CENTRAL
MON NIGHT MAY TRY TO DIP BLO ZERO...ESPECIALLY FOR WHERE WINDS TRY
TO DECOUPLE. STILL APPEARS SYSTEM FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT REMAINS WELL TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/IL/LOWER MICHIGAN.
LIGHT LES WILL CONTINUE OFF LK SUPERIOR IN NW-N WIND AREAS TO EAST
OF MARQUETTE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMS AS INVERSIONS
STAY BLO 5KFT.
WED INTO WED NIGHT...NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE MEAN
TROUGHING. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK AS TIGHT AS IT DID YDY
BUT A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR BY WED NIGHT.
EXPECT THE LES TO INCREASE FOR A TIME WED INTO WED NIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. MODELS DIFFER ON WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE COLD WITH GFS PUSHING SUB -20C H85 TEMPS OVER ALL OF
UPR MICHIGAN WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE GLANCING BLOW OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND FAR EASTERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THU SO KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH LES DIMINISHING. ANOTHER SUB
ZERO NIGHT COULD OCCUR THU NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR.
STILL LOOKS LIKE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MAY BE SOME LGT SNOW AT TIMES DUE TO SHORTWAVES
WORKING THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES TO IMPROVE W-E DURING THIS AFTN
AS AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTS TO THE E AND ONGOING
SN DIMINISHES. BY ABOUT 00Z...LINGERING LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE THE
RULE. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG QUICKLY ACRS UPR MI THIS EVNG...
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST BRIEFLY. MORE -SN WL DVLP
OVER THE W LATE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP LO PRES TROF...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE -SN AND IFR VSBYS. STRONG NW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
THAT WL ARPCH 40 KT AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION...BEHIND THIS
TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF BLSN/LOWER VSBYS AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. CMX SHOULD SEE MORE BLSN/LIFR VSBYS. SINCE THE STRONG
WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THIS AFTN...WINDS OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL
COME DOWN BLO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
WITH A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO GALES TO 35 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND TO
45 KTS ON MON MORNING...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. STORM FORCE GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION...BUT WILL STICK
WITH GALE WARNING ATTM. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE MON
AFTN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OVER QUEBEC AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. WINDS SHOULD STAY BLO 25 KTS MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT
BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH
BLO 20 KTS THU INTO FRI AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
REGION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>003-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ004>007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC/JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
320 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH SFC LO PRES OVER NRN
LK MI MOVING E ALONG STALLED FNT THAT PASSED THRU THE AREA LAST NGT.
AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX OVER SE CANADA HAS OVERCOME SOME VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z GRB RAOB TO BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ON THE
SE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...THE SHARP UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DYNAMICS AND UNDER COLDER CLD TOPS SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY HAS
BROUGH A CHANGE TO MAINLY SN. THERE IS AN AREA OF MDT SN OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER H7-75 FGEN. THE PCPN
OVER THE WRN CWA IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE SHARPER FORCING AND
COLDER CLD TOPS ARE SHIFTING TO THE E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLDS. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS
DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA.
AS THE SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/ FGEN EXIT TO THE E
AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE
STEADY SN TO DIMINISH. THE LAST OF THE SET OF CURRENT ADVYS ARE SET
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...AND THIS TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. A TRAILING SFC HI
PRES RDG NOW MOVING INTO MN IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS THE CWA TNGT.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RDG
AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
EXPECTED W WINDS. BUT ANY CLRG WL BE BRIEF AS THE DISTURBANCE NOW
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO
BY 12Z MON. SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/ DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO THE WRN LKS IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MSTR
INFLOW WL BE QUITE LIMITED...THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC ARRIVING WITH THE SFC TROF TOWARD 12Z JUSTIFY
SOME LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATE TNGT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ON MON MRNG AS THE TROF PASSES QUICKLY.
THERE WL BE A QUICK BURST OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LK SUP AS THE TROF PASSES...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IF HEAVIER STRIPE
OF SNOW DEVELOPS AS WRF-ARW/NMM AND NAM SUGGEST.
WINDS AND BLSN/DRSN WILL BE BIGGER ISSUE ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING TO 996-997MB OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TIGHTENS PRESSURE
GRADIENT UP TO 18MB BY 15Z ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR EVIDENCED BY -30C H85 TEMP AT CHURCHHILL
MANITOBA THIS MORNING IS DRAWN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR LEADING TO
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE. NNW-NW WINDS WITHIN MIXED LAYER ARE
UP TO 45-50 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH 40-45 KTS OVER
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC WINDS FM NAM/GEM-
REGIONAL/LOCAL WRF ARE 40 KTS OVER MOST OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
CONTINUED TREND FM MID SHIFT TO RAMP UP WINDS IN THE MORNING AND
SHOW RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY
ADVISORIES UP INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR ZONES...WILL
ISSUE AN SPS. AS EVEN WITH SUB ADVY SNOWFALL...THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS/BLSN WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW/WIND
AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE...LIKELY WILL NEED AN SHORT DURATION
ADVISORY. WINDS MAY ALSO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG LK SUPERIOR AFFECTING COPPER HARBOR AND AREAS
FROM BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT...INCLUDING MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS ON THE LONG
TERM...WHICH BEGINS 12Z MON.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW OF THE CWA WITH A ROUGHLY 997MB
SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO THE SW OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MON. THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY QUICK HITTING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY 18Z MON. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO
QUICK DUMP OF SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS MON
MORNING. HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 2-3 INCHES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES (POSSIBLY UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE KEWEENAW) WITH A TRANCE
TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE...BUT MOST OF THAT FALLS IN 3 HOURS AND DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WITH HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES OUT AND WITH A SFC
HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W...SHOULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45KTS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES (STRONGEST KEWEENAW AND E) FOR 3-4
HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE LOW/COLD FRONT...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25-30KTS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS OVER
THE NW SHOULD FALL FROM AROUND 20F AT 12Z TO THE MID TEENS BY
15Z...THEN GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. OVER THE SE...THE TEMPS START AT 25-30F AND TAKES LONGER TO
FALL...BUT DOES FALL INTO THE TEENS BY THE EVENING. CONCERN IS THAT
PAVEMENT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE GIVEN THE QUICK
SNOWFALL...WINDS BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE ROAD (AND REDUCING
VIS)...AND TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING FROM RELATIVELY WARM TO WHERE SALT
IS NOT AN EFFECTIVE ROAD TREATMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
QUICKLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WOULD ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
GIVEN THAT AN ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL PUNT THAT TO THE
NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE.
WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -15C TO -20C MON EVENING...WILL SEE LES LINGER
IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH WED. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LESSER
AND GREATER LES DURING THAT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES S OF THE
AREA AND RIDING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT TIMES...STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WORTH HEADLINES AFTER MON. WED NIGHT AND THU MAY
SEE MORE NLY WINDS...WHICH WILL FAVOR MUCH OF NORTHERN UPPER MI FOR
LIGHT LES. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARMER AIRMASS AND SW FLOW LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SYSTEM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO BE REAL SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES TO IMPROVE W-E DURING THIS AFTN
AS AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTS TO THE E AND ONGOING
SN DIMINISHES. BY ABOUT 00Z...LINGERING LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE THE
RULE. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG QUICKLY ACRS UPR MI THIS EVNG...
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST BRIEFLY. MORE -SN WL DVLP
OVER THE W LATE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP LO PRES TROF...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE -SN AND IFR VSBYS. STRONG NW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
THAT WL ARPCH 40 KT AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION...BEHIND THIS
TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF BLSN/LOWER VSBYS AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. CMX SHOULD SEE MORE BLSN/LIFR VSBYS. SINCE THE STRONG
WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING NE GALES
TO 35 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND KEPT THE GALE
WARNING UP THROUGH THIS MORNING. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BELOW 25 KTS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN A PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST GALES UP TO 40 KTS FOR
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A QUICK
INCREASE IN WINDS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE ARE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE WINDS THEN STAYING
MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER MOST OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>003-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ004>007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
356 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN LO AMPLITUDE RDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME
TROFFING IN ERN NAMERICA. THE WX OVER UPR MI IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH LLVL WNW FLOW ADVECTING 12Z H85 TEMP OF 5C AT INL INTO THE
CWA. DESPITE SOME MID/HI CLDS PRESENT ABOVE FAIRLY DRY SFC-H7 LYR
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S WITHIN THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS...REACHING RECORD LVLS AT SOME
PLACES. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT DROPPING INTO LK SUP. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FNT IS RATHER COLD AND DRY AS 12Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS WERE 35C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. SFC DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN BLO
0F JUST TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE RDG
AXIS. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD VSBL ON WV IMAGERY...AND
OBSVD 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS IN ITS PATH WERE ARND 100M.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON IMPACT OF SHRTWV
MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SN TOTALS AND NEED TO EXPAND GOING WINTER WX ADVY.
TONIGHT...HIER RES MODELS SHOW SFC COLD FNT DROPPING S THRU THE CWA
THIS EVNG...REACHING NEAR MENOMINEE BY 06Z...WHEN THE FNT IS FCST TO
STALL ACROSS NCENTRAL WI. WHILE THE FROPA WL BE DRY DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF MSTR IN THE SFC-H7 LYR...MANY OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY SGNFT LLVL MOISTENING UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION BASE
STRENGTHENED BY NEAR SFC CAA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE LLVL
ENE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WL UPSLOPE. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM OBS AND TENDENCY FOR SOME OF THESE MODELS TO BE
TOO MOIST IN THE NEAR SFC LYR...CONCERNED THIS LLVL MOISTENING MAY
BE OVERDONE. BUT OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE FLOW WL ENHANCE COOLING/MOISTENING.
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN...INCRSG DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG NRN ROCKIES SHRTWV THAT WL CAUSE A
LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE STALLING FNT IN MN/WI AS WELL AS UPR
DVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND IN RRQ OF 130KT H3
JET MAX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY WL CAUSE DEEPENING MSTR/PCPN TO ENVELOP
THE AREA FM THE NW. THIS PCPN WL AT LEAST BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
SN/SLEET/FREEZING RA AND RA OVER ALL BUT THE NCENTRAL DUE TO
PRONOUCNED ELEVATED WARM/DRY LYR SHOWN BY MANY OF THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS. BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND RESULTING DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WL COOL/MOISTEN THIS LYR WL CAUSE A CHANGE TO SN FM THE
NW TO SE. THE NAM IS A BIT OUT OF AN OUTLIER SHOWING A LONGER
LASTING ELEVATED WARM LYR...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING WL TEND TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE/QUICKER CHANGE TO MAINLY
SN. BUT EVEN THESE MODELS INDICATE SOME MIXED PCPN WL LINGER OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN ON SUN.
ONCE THE SFC LO TRACKING E ALONG THE STALLED FNT TO THE S SHIFTS
INTO LOWER MI AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS OVER THE W IN THE
AFTN...EXPECT THE PCPN THERE TO TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT LES AS H85
TEMPS FALL TO TOWARD -13C UNDER TRAILING THERMAL TROF. AS FOR SN
TOTALS...FCST H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO ABOUT 3-4 G/KG INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 INCHES OF WET SN /DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER HI
AND NARROW/ IN 6-12HR PERIOD OF FORCING OVER MAINLY THE N HALF OF
THE CWA...WHICH WL BE IMPACTED BY THE SHARPEST FGEN. OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PCPN AND PASSAGE OF ENHANCED
FORCING TO THE N WL RESULT IN AN INCH OR LESS OF SN.
FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO INCLUDE ONTONAGON AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SN WL
FALL IN THIS AREA. ALSO CONSIDERED ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT WITH MAINLY ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FCST IN THIS AREA DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE CWA TO
HEADLINE THE WINTRY MIX.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS ON THE LONG
TERM...WHICH BEGINS 12Z MON.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW OF THE CWA WITH A ROUGHLY 997MB
SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO THE SW OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MON. THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY QUICK HITTING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY 18Z MON. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO
QUICK DUMP OF SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS MON
MORNING. HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 2-3 INCHES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES (POSSIBLY UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE KEWEENAW) WITH A TRANCE
TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE...BUT MOST OF THAT FALLS IN 3 HOURS AND DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WITH HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES OUT AND WITH A SFC
HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W...SHOULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45KTS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES (STRONGEST KEWEENAW AND E) FOR 3-4
HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE LOW/COLD FRONT...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25-30KTS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS OVER
THE NW SHOULD FALL FROM AROUND 20F AT 12Z TO THE MID TEENS BY
15Z...THEN GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. OVER THE SE...THE TEMPS START AT 25-30F AND TAKES LONGER TO
FALL...BUT DOES FALL INTO THE TEENS BY THE EVENING. CONCERN IS THAT
PAVEMENT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE GIVEN THE QUICK
SNOWFALL...WINDS BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE ROAD (AND REDUCING
VIS)...AND TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING FROM RELATIVELY WARM TO WHERE SALT
IS NOT AN EFFECTIVE ROAD TREATMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
QUICKLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WOULD ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
GIVEN THAT AN ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL PUNT THAT TO THE
NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE.
WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -15C TO -20C MON EVENING...WILL SEE LES LINGER
IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH WED. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LESSER
AND GREATER LES DURING THAT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES S OF THE
AREA AND RIDING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT TIMES...STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WORTH HEADLINES AFTER MON. WED NIGHT AND THU MAY
SEE MORE NLY WINDS...WHICH WILL FAVOR MUCH OF NORTHERN UPPER MI FOR
LIGHT LES. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARMER AIRMASS AND SW FLOW LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SYSTEM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO BE REAL SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED.
MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WITH A STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CIGS AT KSAW WILL LIKELY FALL TO LIFR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME -FZDZ. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE
IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AS A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO THE S...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS THOUGH PCPN
MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF -FZRASNPL AT KIWD. DURING THE SNOW...KIWD/KCMX
SHOULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS WITH KSAW MOSTLY LIFR...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM W TO
E LATE AFTN/EVENING AS SNOW DIMINISHES/ENDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
COLD FRONT MOVING DROPPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A SFC LOW
CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NE GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY ON SUN. WINDS UP TO 30
KTS OVER REST OF THE LAKE. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BLO 25 KTS LATER SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
25 KTS OR LESS BY THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THEN
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003>005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-
263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1158 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN LO AMPLITUDE RDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME
TROFFING IN ERN NAMERICA. THE WX OVER UPR MI IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH LLVL WNW FLOW ADVECTING 12Z H85 TEMP OF 5C AT INL INTO THE
CWA. DESPITE SOME MID/HI CLDS PRESENT ABOVE FAIRLY DRY SFC-H7 LYR
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S WITHIN THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS...REACHING RECORD LVLS AT SOME
PLACES. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT DROPPING INTO LK SUP. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FNT IS RATHER COLD AND DRY AS 12Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS WERE 35C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. SFC DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN BLO
0F JUST TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE RDG
AXIS. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD VSBL ON WV IMAGERY...AND
OBSVD 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS IN ITS PATH WERE ARND 100M.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON IMPACT OF SHRTWV
MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SN TOTALS AND NEED TO EXPAND GOING WINTER WX ADVY.
TONIGHT...HIER RES MODELS SHOW SFC COLD FNT DROPPING S THRU THE CWA
THIS EVNG...REACHING NEAR MENOMINEE BY 06Z...WHEN THE FNT IS FCST TO
STALL ACROSS NCENTRAL WI. WHILE THE FROPA WL BE DRY DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF MSTR IN THE SFC-H7 LYR...MANY OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY SGNFT LLVL MOISTENING UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION BASE
STRENGTHENED BY NEAR SFC CAA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE LLVL
ENE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WL UPSLOPE. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM OBS AND TENDENCY FOR SOME OF THESE MODELS TO BE
TOO MOIST IN THE NEAR SFC LYR...CONCERNED THIS LLVL MOISTENING MAY
BE OVERDONE. BUT OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE FLOW WL ENHANCE COOLING/MOISTENING.
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN...INCRSG DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG NRN ROCKIES SHRTWV THAT WL CAUSE A
LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE STALLING FNT IN MN/WI AS WELL AS UPR
DVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND IN RRQ OF 130KT H3
JET MAX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY WL CAUSE DEEPENING MSTR/PCPN TO ENVELOP
THE AREA FM THE NW. THIS PCPN WL AT LEAST BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
SN/SLEET/FREEZING RA AND RA OVER ALL BUT THE NCENTRAL DUE TO
PRONOUCNED ELEVATED WARM/DRY LYR SHOWN BY MANY OF THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS. BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND RESULTING DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WL COOL/MOISTEN THIS LYR WL CAUSE A CHANGE TO SN FM THE
NW TO SE. THE NAM IS A BIT OUT OF AN OUTLIER SHOWING A LONGER
LASTING ELEVATED WARM LYR...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING WL TEND TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE/QUICKER CHANGE TO MAINLY
SN. BUT EVEN THESE MODELS INDICATE SOME MIXED PCPN WL LINGER OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN ON SUN.
ONCE THE SFC LO TRACKING E ALONG THE STALLED FNT TO THE S SHIFTS
INTO LOWER MI AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS OVER THE W IN THE
AFTN...EXPECT THE PCPN THERE TO TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT LES AS H85
TEMPS FALL TO TOWARD -13C UNDER TRAILING THERMAL TROF. AS FOR SN
TOTALS...FCST H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO ABOUT 3-4 G/KG INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 INCHES OF WET SN /DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER HI
AND NARROW/ IN 6-12HR PERIOD OF FORCING OVER MAINLY THE N HALF OF
THE CWA...WHICH WL BE IMPACTED BY THE SHARPEST FGEN. OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PCPN AND PASSAGE OF ENHANCED
FORCING TO THE N WL RESULT IN AN INCH OR LESS OF SN.
FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO INCLUDE ONTONAGON AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SN WL
FALL IN THIS AREA. ALSO CONSIDERED ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT WITH MAINLY ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FCST IN THIS AREA DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE CWA TO
HEADLINE THE WINTRY MIX.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
...SNOW AND BLSN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IS HIGHEST IMPACT
WEATHER OF EXTENDED...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND COLD AIR STARTS THE WEEK OUT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW INTERVALS OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET
DIGGING INTO WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THIS PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN JET BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE.
MOST EFFECTS OF SUN SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH ON SUN EVENING AS BRIEF SFC
RIDGE CROSSES AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS
FIRST PART OF SUN EVENING OVER FAR EAST. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DIVE TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUN
NIGHT AND CROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON MON MORNING. PVA/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
WINDS SHIFTING NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -19C
BY LATE MON MORNING WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MOST OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE EXITING MID-LATE MORNING SO THINK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...SO BLSN AND
REDUCED VSBY MAY BE ISSUE AS WELL. NAM IS SLOW OUTLIER WITH
FROPA...SO WENT MORE WITH GFS/GEM/LOCAL WRF. THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE REACHING ADVY...ADDED WIND/BLSN COMBINED WITH FROPA
OCCURRING JUST BEFORE OR DURING THE MON MORNING COMMUTE MAY ADD TO
THE HAZARD. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING...LES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT AT A DIMINISHED INTENSITY. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH AT
P53 AND ERY INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -18C. SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE STAYS
ON TRACK SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING SNOW
FM NORTHERN ILL TO LOWER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EVEN WITH
SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH...HINTS IN MODELS THAT LES MAY FLARE UP SOME
FOR NW FLOW AREAS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHERN FRINGE OF
DEEPER FORCING AFFECTS UPR MICHIGAN. INVERSIONS REMAIN AT OR BLO
5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE OF LES WILL INCREASE...IT SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM ON UPPER LAKES BY WED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW TIGHT SFC TROUGH BECOMES OVER LK
SUPERIOR INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS/GEM SHOW MORE OF A LOW OVER EASTERN
UPR MICHIGAN BY WED AFTN WHILE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG. EITHER CASE
SHOULD FAVOR PERIOD OF LGT SNOW WED MORNING BECOMING LES OFF
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. WITH THE STRONGER LOW...GFS IDEA WOULD SUGGEST
MORE SNOW/BLSN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS AT P53 SHOW
INVERSIONS NEARING 10KFT. ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD OR STRONG WITH MSLP
GRADIENT. BOTH SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE. RAN WITH CONSENSUS...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED INTO WED NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF LK
SUPERIOR AS A NUDGE TOWARD COLDER IDEA. RIDGE BUILDS OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES THU INTO THU NIGHT. MINS THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR COULD
DROP BLO ZERO...BUT DID NOT GO THAT FAR FM CONSENSUS NOW. ONCE RIDGE
PASSES BY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
MODEST WARMING TREND AND AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED.
MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WITH A STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CIGS AT KSAW WILL LIKELY FALL TO LIFR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME -FZDZ. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE
IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AS A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO THE S...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS THOUGH PCPN
MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF -FZRASNPL AT KIWD. DURING THE SNOW...KIWD/KCMX
SHOULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS WITH KSAW MOSTLY LIFR...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM W TO
E LATE AFTN/EVENING AS SNOW DIMINISHES/ENDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
COLD FRONT MOVING DROPPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A SFC LOW
CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NE GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY ON SUN. WINDS UP TO 30
KTS OVER REST OF THE LAKE. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BLO 25 KTS LATER SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
25 KTS OR LESS BY THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THEN
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003>005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-
084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1150 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
Main concerns are with wind and elevated fire weather danger today.
Will be issuing a wind advisory for north of I-70 for today. See the
fire weather section below for the fire weather concerns.
A shortwave trough currently seen on water vapor extending from the
Upper Midwest into the central High Plains will deepen and move
across the region by late this afternoon. Its attendant cold front
will move across the area this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient
will set up ahead of it today which will set up very windy
conditions over the area. KLSX VAD winds at 0930Z are showing 55kts
at 2000ft AGL that will begin to mix down this morning.
In addition, both the latest runs of the HRRR and NSSL WRF are
showing that there will be isolated light showers developing early
to mid afternoon over the southeast half of the CWA ahead of the
cold front. This will be in response to strong low level moisture
convergence ahead of the front this afternoon. Have added a slight
chance of showers to accommodate these showers.
Temperatures today will still get well above normal even with clouds
moving into the area because of the warm start and forecast
soundings showing mixing up to 800mb. Have gone with highs above
the warmest MOS guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
GFS and ECMWF are still showing continuity problems with the storm
that will move across the area on Tuesday. Will stay a constant
course and keep with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
on Monday night. Have now just kept that chance of thunderstorms to
the the southeast half of the CWA on Tuesday morning now as both the
GFS and the ECMWF shows the low pressure system racing eastward
early in the day. Any chance of rain or snow over the area looks
like it will just be on Tuesday evening over the eastern half of the
area.
Wednesday still looks dry before the ECMWF and GFS brings a clipper
across the area on Thursday. Will continue to carry a chance of
rain or snow with it Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal Wednesday through
Friday before climbing back above normal in time for the weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
Primary concern is wind this afternoon and evening. Southwest wind
between 20-30kts with gusts of 35-45kts will prevail this
afternoon. This will cause serious crosswind issues on any
northwest/southeast oriented runways. Wind will shift to the
northwest behind a cold front beginning around 21-22Z in central
and northeast Missouri...around 00Z along the Missouri
I-44/Illinois I-55 corridor...and by 03Z into extreme southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. A VFR ceiling around 5000 FT is
expected to develop over the next hour or two ahead of the front and
there may be some widely scattered showers with this
ceiling...primarily east of the Mississippi, but precipitation is
not expected to be heavy enough to affect terminal operations.
Northwest flow will gradually diminish late this evening as high
pressure builds south of the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
Primary concern is wind this afternoon and evening. Southwest wind
between 20-25kts with gusts perhaps in excess of 35kts will
prevail this afternoon. This will be nearly a direct crosswnid on
the main runways. Wind will shift to the northwest around 00Z as a
cold front moves through the region. VFR ceiling around 5000 ft is
expected to develop west of the terminal over the next couple of
hours, and move overhead...perhaps with an isolated shower or two.
Rain is expected to be very light if it occurs so I don`t expect
any impact to terminal operations. Gusty northwest flow should
diminish by late evening with VFR flight condtiions prevailing.
Carney
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
There will be a small area of elevated fire danger over central
Missouri this afternoon. Above normal temperatures and low
dewpoints will help drive minimum relative humidities down into
the 25 to 30 percent range. In addition...southwest winds in the
15 to 20 mph range with higher gusts will shift to the west behind
of cold front in the afternoon. 10 hour dry fuels fell as low as 5
percent at Ashland in Boone County on Saturday afternoon.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
544 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
Main concerns are with wind and elevated fire weather danger today.
Will be issuing a wind advisory for north of I-70 for today. See the
fire weather section below for the fire weather concerns.
A shortwave trough currently seen on water vapor extending from the
Upper Midwest into the central High Plains will deepen and move
across the region by late this afternoon. Its attendant cold front
will move across the area this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient
will set up ahead of it today which will set up very windy
conditions over the area. KLSX VAD winds at 0930Z are showing 55kts
at 2000ft AGL that will begin to mix down this morning.
In addition, both the latest runs of the HRRR and NSSL WRF are
showing that there will be isolated light showers developing early
to mid afternoon over the southeast half of the CWA ahead of the
cold front. This will be in response to strong low level moisture
convergence ahead of the front this afternoon. Have added a slight
chance of showers to accommodate these showers.
Temperatures today will still get well above normal even with clouds
moving into the area because of the warm start and forecast
soundings showing mixing up to 800mb. Have gone with highs above
the warmest MOS guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
GFS and ECMWF are still showing continuity problems with the storm
that will move across the area on Tuesday. Will stay a constant
course and keep with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
on Monday night. Have now just kept that chance of thunderstorms to
the the southeast half of the CWA on Tuesday morning now as both the
GFS and the ECMWF shows the low pressure system racing eastward
early in the day. Any chance of rain or snow over the area looks
like it will just be on Tuesday evening over the eastern half of the
area.
Wednesday still looks dry before the ECMWF and GFS brings a clipper
across the area on Thursday. Will continue to carry a chance of
rain or snow with it Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal Wednesday through
Friday before climbing back above normal in time for the weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
VFR through the pd. LLWS should continue through the middle part
of the morning due to a stout low-level jet across the region.
Some of these stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface
today, creating wind gusts of 20-35 kts at times, particularly
from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Surface winds will also
increase today due to the tightening pressure gradient ahead of a
cold front, which is expected to move across the terminals between
18z and 00z. Winds will become northwesterly after fropa. Isolated
rain showers are possible with fropa this afternoon, however the
expected coverage is too low to include SHRA in the TAFs attm.
Kanofsky
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
There will be a small area of elevated fire danger over central
Missouri this afternoon. Above normal temperatures and low
dewpoints will help drive minimum relative humidities down into
the 25 to 30 percent range. In addition...southwest winds in the
15 to 20 mph range with higher gusts will shift to the west behind
of cold front in the afternoon. 10 hour dry fuels fell as low as 5
percent at Ashland in Boone County on Saturday afternoon.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
Main concerns are with wind and elevated fire weather danger today.
Will be issuing a wind advisory for north of I-70 for today. See the
fire weather section below for the fire weather concerns.
A shortwave trough currently seen on water vapor extending from the
Upper Midwest into the central High Plains will deepen and move
across the region by late this afternoon. Its attendant cold front
will move across the area this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient
will set up ahead of it today which will set up very windy
conditions over the area. KLSX VAD winds at 0930Z are showing 55kts
at 2000ft AGL that will begin to mix down this morning.
In addition, both the latest runs of the HRRR and NSSL WRF are
showing that there will be isolated light showers developing early
to mid afternoon over the southeast half of the CWA ahead of the
cold front. This will be in response to strong low level moisture
convergence ahead of the front this afternoon. Have added a slight
chance of showers to accommodate these showers.
Temperatures today will still get well above normal even with clouds
moving into the area because of the warm start and forecast
soundings showing mixing up to 800mb. Have gone with highs above
the warmest MOS guidance.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
GFS and ECMWF are still showing continuity problems with the storm
that will move across the area on Tuesday. Will stay a constant
course and keep with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
on Monday night. Have now just kept that chance of thunderstorms to
the the southeast half of the CWA on Tuesday morning now as both the
GFS and the ECMWF shows the low pressure system racing eastward
early in the day. Any chance of rain or snow over the area looks
like it will just be on Tuesday evening over the eastern half of the
area.
Wednesday still looks dry before the ECMWF and GFS brings a clipper
across the area on Thursday. Will continue to carry a chance of
rain or snow with it Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal Wednesday through
Friday before climbing back above normal in time for the weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. A moderate S-SW surface flow will couple with a strong low
level jet of 45-50kts to result in LLWS at all sites thru mid
Sunday morning. This jet is then expected to aid in enhancing
wind gusts for a time later Sunday morning and early afternoon,
with gusts of 30kts or higher expected during this time. A cold
front will move thru the area Sunday afternoon...around 21z for
UIN and COU...and around 00z for STL metro sites...and is expected
to kick up a region of low-VFR cloudiness ahead of it. Guidance
has come in a bit wetter and continues to suggest isolated SHRA
possible for STL metro during a fairly brief window from 19-21z
Sunday afternoon. Given the small probability and small time
window, will leave out of TAFs with the 06z issuance. Winds will
then veer W-NW with cold FROPA.
TES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016
There will be a small area of elevated fire danger over central
Missouri this afternoon. Above normal temperatures and low
dewpoints will help drive minimum relative humdities down into the
25 to 30 percent range. In addition...southwest winds in the 15 to
20 mph range with higher gusts will shift to the west behind of
cold front in the afternoon. 10 hour dry fuels fell as low as 5
percent at Ashland in Boone County on Saturday afternoon.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon
FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon
FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene
IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
835 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
MOSAIC RADAR DATA AS OF 0230Z REVEALED A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM NERN INTO S-CNTRL NEB WHICH APPEARS TO BE WELL
CORRELATED WITH A ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT AROUND 850
MB. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING SAMPLED A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
FROM ABOUT 900 MB THROUGH 650 MB...SO MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY EVAPORATING OR SUBLIMATING PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROGRESS EWD
TOWARD THE MO RIVER TONIGHT...ALONG THE AXIS OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH SOME MIXED PHASES (I.E. FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET)
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE PRIOR TO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS MEASURED A 140M HEIGHT FALL AT
GREAT FALLS WHILE A MEASURED 140KT 300MB JET WAS DIGGING UNDER THE
WAVE. A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW WITHIN
A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. BOTH THE RAP AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
INDICATE PCPN DEVELOPING AROUND 03Z IN OUR FAR NORTH...THEN
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY 09Z. VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
COULD DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
SHORT LIVED. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
NORTH WITH A TRACE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 30.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATE TUESDAY AND DROP TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50S BY
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON TIMING
OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES WITH THE GFS BEING A MUCH FASTER
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH WARMER WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUE A RA/SN MIX IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON IT. IN ANY
CASE...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THOUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF PCPN TO OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. A WARMING
TREND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING A DEEP TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANY LEAD SHORTWAVES
THAT MAY EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS SYSTEM
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL BE DAY
7...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE ADDED
A THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 06Z AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KOFK
AND KOMA AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH 18Z AS THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEAD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
538 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS MEASURED A 140M HEIGHT FALL AT
GREAT FALLS WHILE A MEASURED 140KT 300MB JET WAS DIGGING UNDER THE
WAVE. A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW WITHIN
A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. BOTH THE RAP AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
INDICATE PCPN DEVELOPING AROUND 03Z IN OUR FAR NORTH...THEN
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY 09Z. VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
COULD DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
SHORT LIVED. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
NORTH WITH A TRACE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 30.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATE TUESDAY AND DROP TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50S BY
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON TIMING
OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES WITH THE GFS BEING A MUCH FASTER
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH WARMER WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUE A RA/SN MIX IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON IT. IN ANY
CASE...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THOUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF PCPN TO OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. A WARMING
TREND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING A DEEP TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANY LEAD SHORTWAVES
THAT MAY EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS SYSTEM
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL BE DAY
7...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE ADDED
A THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 06Z AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KOFK
AND KOMA AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH 18Z AS THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
642 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN TURN BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE FIRST DAY OF
MARCH. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM EST MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE NEAR-TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THIS EVENING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS A RISK OF SHORT-LIVED SNOW SQUALLS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN
NY...AND AS FAR EWD AS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
YIELDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY
THIS EVENING. WHILE SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 15 MPH
TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE AND VEER TO THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT. AT 23Z...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WEST OF OTTAWA SSWWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF
LAKE ONTARIO. NARROW BAND OF INTENSE REFLECTIVITY NOTED IN
CANADIAN RADARS...ALONG WITH STRONG SFC ISALLOBARIC COUPLET (RISES
OF 7-8MB/3HR BEHIND THE FRONT) WITH STRONG WINDS 30-45KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALLS. OUR LOCALLY-RUN SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH (4-8 UNITS) WITH SHALLOW CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 100-120 J/KG FOCUSED FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 00-04Z.
COINCIDENT WITH THESE IS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC AND ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST INTO THE
WRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (I.E., NRN NY). WHILE THESE EVENTS
DON`T PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...ALL THAT FALLS IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES OR LESS LEADING TO
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS. IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SQUALLS WILL MISS
OUT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE, INSTEAD ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY BETWEEN 7-9 PM,THE ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 8-10 PM, AND THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND
BTV-4 KM ALL LOSE THE SQUALLS AS THEY ADVANCE EAST OF THE WESTERN
SLOPES ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. SO POPS THEN
DECREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 06Z ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT. WILL CONTINUE
TO HANDLE POTL WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS FRONT MOVES INTO
NRN NY DURING THIS EVENING. A FLASH FREEZE AS TEMPS FALL RAPIDLY
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER TEENS OVERNIGHT UNDER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IS ALSO A CONCERN...AS SNOW THAT INITIALLY FALLS ON WARM
PAVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE QUICK TO FREEZE...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED
SURFACES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
COLDER BUT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRIEFLY. 925 MB TEMPS START
ON TUESDAY AROUND -16 TO -18C, AND THEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHES
THESE VALUES BACK TO -8 TO -12C. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RUN FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH, MID/UPPER
20SFOR CENTRAL VT/ADIRONDACKS, TO AROUND FREEZING FOR RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 PM EST MONDAY...STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTER STORM TO THE AREA...STARTING AS SNOW IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTHEASTERN VT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL
KEEP COLDER NE FLOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEREFORE KEEP
PRECIP AS ALL SNOW...ALSO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
VT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VT LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA MIX. HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED 06Z-12Z
WED...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND 0.75 AND SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE ST LAWRENCE. AS FOR THE WARM
NOSE...EXPECT MIXED PRECIP TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
AS THE SURFACE LOW SWINGS NE INTO MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 45-60KTS AT 850 WILL BE REPLACED BY NW WINDS.
AS WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT NW, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
IN...TRANSITIONING PRECIP BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED.
STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5-10 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ZONES ACROSS VT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR FZRA
WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL VT WITH ICE AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO 20S OCCURRING EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND WARMING TOWARDS
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, MAX TEMPERATURES OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY AND COOL IN THE NW FLOW BY LATE MORNING/MID DAY.
THE MORNING MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN ZONES
AND 20S IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WED NT WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS STORM. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY
DUE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AND TREND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY CREATING A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS
BAND OF SQUALLS MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z
AND BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z ACROSS VERMONT. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE SQUALLS AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...BE AWARE OF A STRONG
WIND SHIFT AS WINDS BECOME MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SQUALLS. EVENTUALLY THE WINDS
TAPER DOWN AFTER 10Z MORE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 12Z-18Z WED, BECOMING GUSTY NORTHWEST 00Z-06Z
THU.
06Z THU ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
614 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN TURN BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE FIRST DAY OF
MARCH. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM EST MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE NEAR-TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS THIS EVENING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS A RISK OF SHORT-LIVED SNOW SQUALLS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN
NY...AND AS FAR EWD AS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
YIELDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY
THIS EVENING. WHILE SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 15 MPH
TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE AND VEER TO THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT. AT 23Z...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WEST OF OTTAWA SSWWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF
LAKE ONTARIO. NARROW BAND OF INTENSE REFLECTIVITY NOTED IN
CANADIAN RADARS...ALONG WITH STRONG SFC ISALLOBARIC COUPLET (RISES
OF 7-8MB/3HR BEHIND THE FRONT) WITH STRONG WINDS 30-45KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALLS. OUR LOCALLY-RUN SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH (4-8 UNITS) WITH SHALLOW CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 100-120 J/KG FOCUSED FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 00-04Z.
COINCIDENT WITH THESE IS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC AND ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST INTO THE
WRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (I.E., NRN NY). WHILE THESE EVENTS
DON`T PRODUCE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...ALL THAT FALLS IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES OR LESS LEADING TO
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS. IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SQUALLS WILL MISS
OUT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE, INSTEAD ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY BETWEEN 7-9 PM,THE ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 8-10 PM, AND THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. HRRR AND
BTV-4 KM ALL LOSE THE SQUALLS AS THEY ADVANCE EAST OF THE WESTERN
SLOPES ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. SO POPS THEN
DECREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 06Z ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT. WILL CONTINUE
TO HANDLE POTL WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS FRONT MOVES INTO
NRN NY DURING THIS EVENING. A FLASH FREEZE AS TEMPS FALL RAPIDLY
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER TEENS OVERNIGHT UNDER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IS ALSO A CONCERN...AS SNOW THAT INITIALLY FALLS ON WARM
PAVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE QUICK TO FREEZE...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED
SURFACES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
COLDER BUT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRIEFLY. 925 MB TEMPS START
ON TUESDAY AROUND -16 TO -18C, AND THEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHES
THESE VALUES BACK TO -8 TO -12C. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RUN FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH, MID/UPPER
20SFOR CENTRAL VT/ADIRONDACKS, TO AROUND FREEZING FOR RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 PM EST MONDAY...STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTER STORM TO THE AREA...STARTING AS SNOW IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTHEASTERN VT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL
KEEP COLDER NE FLOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEREFORE KEEP
PRECIP AS ALL SNOW...ALSO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
VT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VT LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA MIX. HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED 06Z-12Z
WED...WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND 0.75 AND SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE ST LAWRENCE. AS FOR THE WARM
NOSE...EXPECT MIXED PRECIP TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
AS THE SURFACE LOW SWINGS NE INTO MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 45-60KTS AT 850 WILL BE REPLACED BY NW WINDS.
AS WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT NW, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
IN...TRANSITIONING PRECIP BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED.
STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5-10 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ZONES ACROSS VT. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR FZRA
WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL VT WITH ICE AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO 20S OCCURRING EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND WARMING TOWARDS
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, MAX TEMPERATURES OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY AND COOL IN THE NW FLOW BY LATE MORNING/MID DAY.
THE MORNING MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN ZONES
AND 20S IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WED NT WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS STORM. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY
DUE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AND TREND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
NEGATIVE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
TREND VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-
DURATION LIFR VISIBILITY SNOW SQUALLS. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOST LIKELY TAFS TO BE AFFECTED BY SNOW SQUALLS WOULD BE
MSS, SLK AND PBG...PERHAPS INTO BTV DURING THE 00-04Z TIME FRAME,
WITH MORE OF AN IFR SNOW SHOWER RISK FOR MPV. EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD (GENERALLY LESS THAN AN HOUR) OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SQUALLS. CLEARING SHOULD BE RATHER RAPID
AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 30 KTS)
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HRS. IMPROVEMENT TO WIND SPEEDS
MORE LIKELY INTO TUESDAY AM.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 12Z-18Z WED, BECOMING GUSTY NORTHWEST 00Z-06Z
THU.
06Z THU ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID-DAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WHILE RAIN SHOULD PREDOMINATE, FREEZING RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY CAUSING POTENTIAL
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1251 PM EST SUNDAY...COMPLEX TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, OWING ITSELF TO WHAT IS NOW A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ADDISON COUNTY. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TRAILS ALL THE WAY BACK WESTWARD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR WI/MI. SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS
BOUNDARY NOW ARE BEING REINFORCED BOTH BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DRAINING SHALLOW COLDER AIR INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND A RELATIVE
MIN IN DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO THE BLANKET OF THICK OVERCAST. TO
THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50, SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS POINT AND 925 TO 850 MB TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING (AROUND +5C PER 12Z BUF RAOB). PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LARGELY CONFINED TO QUEBEC, AND SO I`VE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW ENTERS INTO ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. I STILL THINK
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS WARRANTED AS MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT RETURNS NORTH, ALONG WITH A
RAPID INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL TEMPS OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD 2-M
TEMPS. THERE MAY BE A FEW OTHER LOCALES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
FRANKLIN CO VT AND NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY NY WHO MAY SEE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT, BUT I`M NOT FULLY CONVINCED IT WILL
MEASURE THERE.
IN TERMS OF THE GRIDS, I`VE OPTED TO ADJUST TEMPS AND WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS USING A BLEND OF THE 16Z HRRR AND THE LOCALLY-
RUN 12Z WRF MODELS, WHICH SHOWS TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY IN
THE COLDER AIR, WHILE RISING A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE MILDER AIR TO
THE SOUTH. A STRONGLY NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH TODAY`S LOWS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT
3-5 HOURS AND THEN TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HRS UNDER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION, CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING/BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EST SUNDAY...CLIPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE MARITIMES DURING
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAILING IN
TANDEM BY MONDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PROCESS TWO COLD FRONTS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA, THE SECOND BEING DRIER WITH LESS PCPN, BUT
SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN TERMS OF COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. THE HIGHEST
PCPN THREAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS DEEPER
SYSTEM`S FRONT AND MOISTURE PULL EAST. GENERALLY A MIX OF
RAIN/NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, TRENDING TO ALL
FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THOUGH WITH LESS
COVERAGE AS SECOND FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT THERE ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
EVIDENCE OF PBL INSTABILITY TO 150 J/KG RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SO WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH WHETHER A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/BRIEF SQUALLS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS
MENTIONED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE TRICKY, AT LEAST ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD READINGS FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S) AND COOLER VALUES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (30S) AS FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS
DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO. THEN PREDICTABILITY
FACTOR INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD LOWS
(10 TO 20 NORTH, 20 TO 25 SOUTH) FOLLOWED BY 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
HIGHS BEHIND THE SECOND BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EST SUNDAY...WELL, IN TERMS OF OUR MORE ROBUST MID-
WEEK SYSTEM UNFORTUNATELY THE JURY REMAINS OUT ON IT`S EVOLUTION
AND EVENTUAL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD OUR REGION. THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT FROM THIS
MORNING`S GEFS/EPS DATA REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF GUIDANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE THE
EURO/UKMET/NAM/GEM AND ENSEMBLE GEPS SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. NOW THAT`S ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND YOU CAN CREATE IN THIS FIELD. AS A SIDE
NOTE WPC PREFERS THE FORMER, RATHER THAN THE LATTER SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT. REGARDLESS ON THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME, PRIMARY PCPN SLUG
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS TREND SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH
MEAN HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE WEEK. USING A GENERAL BLEND OF GFS/EURO
REGARDING PBL THERMAL STRUCTURE, I`LL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PRIOR FORECAST AND WPC. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
MAINLY SNOW EVENT FOR OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A SNOW TO
MIX SOUTH. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, I`M NOT
EXPECTING REALLY HEFTY SNOW TOTALS. HOWEVER, EARLY INDICATIONS
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 4-6 INCHES CENTRAL/NORTH, SOMEWHAT LESS SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH COULD BE ONE OF OUR LARGER SNOWFALLS OF THE
SEASON IF THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS TRUE TO COURSE. OF COURSE THE
FINER-SCALE DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS AND
THINGS CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ALL-IN-ALL, A PRETTY COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE
AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD. FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHAT SIDE OF A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT THE
TAF IS LOCATED. SOUTH OF THE FRONT (RUT/MPV) EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6-10 KTS. ALONG/NORTH OF IT, EXPECT
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
10-12 KTS. FRONT THEN PUSHES BACK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING, SPARKING
IN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES NORTH. MIX OF VFR FOR
MOST TAF SITES TO MVFR/IFR IN -FZRA AT MSS. INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS (10 TO 15 KTS) AND/OR POCKETS OF LLWS ALSO
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF AIRSPACE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS LARGELY FROM LOW CEILINGS WITH LIGHT RAIN. A WIND SHIFT
TO WEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING,
BUT CONDITIONS THEN TREND VFR WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...BRIEF VFR TRANSITION TO MVFR/LOCAL IFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS. POSSIBLE SHORT-DURATION LIFR VISIBILITY AND GUSTY
WEST WIND IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH BEST CHANCE AT MSS, SLK AND PBG.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 12Z-18Z WED, BECOMING GUSTY
NORTHWEST 00Z-06Z THU.
06Z THU ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
917 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TO THE PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO MAINE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH THRU THE NORTHERN CO`S WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AND COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT
PRECIP. THE TEMP PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUCH THAT THE PRECIP
COULD COME AS EITHER SNOW...RAIN OR FZRA OR A MIX OF THEM. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF STAYING DRY SO
DON`T SEE ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THERE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT BUT WINDOW IS
SHRINKING RAPIDLY. THE OTHER CHANCE IS IN THE NW FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
ON. SINCE THE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE FZRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE...SEE NO REASON
TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL PUSH NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRANSITION ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHORE AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...AS
COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARM AIR ALOFT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN...EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND
SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST.
FLOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AS DRIER AIR DESCENDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP AS SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL IS IDEAL AT THIS TIME WITH FAIRLY GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30S FOR HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO DROP OFF. HOWEVER...IF MORE
CLEARING TAKES PLACE THAN ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WIND UP MUCH COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MOST SIMILAR. THE
MODELS BRING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BELIEVE GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH. STILL...SEEMS REASONABLE
BARRING TRACK CHANGES THAT SOME AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INCREASING TO LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST BUT FOR NOW JUST WENT DRY AS
ENERGY WILL BE TRANSLATING TO THE COAST. SATURDAY ANOTHER LOW DROPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND PRECIP COULD BEGIN OR
MIX WITH RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE SNOW. DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FLIPPING THE WINDS TO THE N OR NE. CURRENTLY NOT MUCH PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT SO HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS
VERY LACKING SO WORST CASE SCENARIO IS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE LAKE. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME MVFR NEAR THE
LAKE AS WELL BUT SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR TILL TOMORROW.
WILL BRING THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA TOWARD MIDDAY
TUESDAY IN THE WEST. BY THIS TIME TOMORROW PRECIP SHOULD BE
ONGOING ALL AREAS. SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY WEST
OF I-71 BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY RAIN FURTHER
EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE DURING
THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER
WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE LAKE WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND
DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TUESDAY
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ENE TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
643 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TO THE PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO MAINE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND COULD
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. THE TEMP PROFILE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUCH THAT THE PRECIP COULD COME AS EITHER SNOW...RAIN
OR FZRA OR A MIX OF THEM. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC OF STAYING DRY SO DON`T SEE ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THERE.
THE BEST CHC FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE SNOWBELT THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LUCKILY...TEMPS SHOULD TRY
AND STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT THRU MIDNIGHT TO PREVENT THE
THREAT OF FZRA. SINCE THE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEE NO REASON TO ISSUE
ANY ADVISORIES.
18Z MAV DATA HAS COME IN WITH LOWS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THRUT THE
AREA SO AM LEANING TOWARD RAISING LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BUT WILL WAIT
TIL NEXT 3 HR UPDATE AND SEE A FEW MORE LAV RUNS COME IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL PUSH NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRANSITION ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHORE AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...AS
COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARM AIR ALOFT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN...EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND
SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST.
FLOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AS DRIER AIR DESCENDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP AS SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL IS IDEAL AT THIS TIME WITH FAIRLY GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30S FOR HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO DROP OFF. HOWEVER...IF MORE
CLEARING TAKES PLACE THAN ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WIND UP MUCH COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MOST SIMILAR. THE
MODELS BRING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BELIEVE GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH. STILL...SEEMS REASONABLE
BARRING TRACK CHANGES THAT SOME AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INCREASING TO LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST BUT FOR NOW JUST WENT DRY AS
ENERGY WILL BE TRANSLATING TO THE COAST. SATURDAY ANOTHER LOW DROPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND PRECIP COULD BEGIN OR
MIX WITH RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE SNOW. DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FLIPPING THE WINDS TO THE N OR NE. CURRENTLY NOT MUCH PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT SO HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS
VERY LACKING SO WORST CASE SCENARIO IS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE LAKE. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME MVFR NEAR THE
LAKE AS WELL BUT SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR TILL TOMORROW.
WILL BRING THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA TOWARD MIDDAY
TUESDAY IN THE WEST. BY THIS TIME TOMORROW PRECIP SHOULD BE
ONGOING ALL AREAS. SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY WEST
OF I-71 BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY RAIN FURTHER
EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE DURING
THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER
WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE LAKE WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND
DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TUESDAY
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ENE TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
542 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR OVER THE E PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE...INTO FAR W OK. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO
A STORM CLUSTER THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE E OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KCSM...KOKC...AND KOUN. KCSM WILL HAVE A
RISK OF MICROBURST WINDS WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY
ARRIVE. FARTHER E...HAIL WILL BECOME THE GREATER RISK. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO NARROWLY MISS ALL OUR OTHER TAF SITES...EXCEPT
KSPS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE FROM THE NW CORNER OF OK AROUND 06Z TO SE OF I-44
AROUND 12Z. N WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...QUICKLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THE SHORT TERM... WHICH WILL BOTH PUSH COLD FRONTS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE ADVANCING TONIGHT... WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES LAPSES RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT... WITH NAM MODEL CONSISTENTLY
PROJECTING MUCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ALONG WITH 40-45 KT WIND
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AT THE LOWER LEVELS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE RATHER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... THE
INTERACTION OF ALL THESE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60
MPH GUSTS. WRF & HRRR MODELS BOTH PROJECTS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WITH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE DRIER AIR
ADVECTS AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.
BY SUNRISE... ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA...
AS THE NORTH WINDS WILL ONLY BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. LATEST
MODEL THICKNESS FIELDS KEEP THE REALLY COLD WINTERY AIR WELL UP
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE 7 DAY
FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... EXPECT ONLY A 10 TO 15 DEGREE
COOLDOWN FROM TODAY... WHICH WILL STILL KEEP THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. SOUTH SFC
WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY... WITH THE SECOND UPPER
WAVE AND COLD FRONT DIGGING THROUGH FOR THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM WILL RESTRICT POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... THE
WINDS WILL HELP ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY... BRINGING IN LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 61 36 68 / 40 10 0 0
HOBART OK 45 63 37 71 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 64 38 73 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 62 33 73 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 58 33 66 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 57 63 40 66 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH ITS TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...TO ONE INCH. A RETURN TO COLDER...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD AND KIPT HAVE BEEN SURPASSED OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND ANOTHER DEG F OR SO SHOULD BE TACKED ON TO THESE
PRIOR TO 21Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE: KBFD - 53F IN 1983...KAOO - 63F
SET IN 1955....63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954...AND KMDT - 68F IN 1976.
WE`VE ALREADY ECLIPSED TWO OF THEM...KAOO MAY BE TIED BASED ON THE
18Z HRRR. HOWEVER...KMDT SEEMS SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF
REACH WITH A FCST HIGH THERE OF JUST 61-62F.
SUB 995 MB SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE OR
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT AND FAST MOVING NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A DWINDLING RIBBON OF 0.75 PWATS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND UP TO ONE OR
TWO TENTHS OF RAINFL ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LESS QPF HEADING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
AND SUSQ REGION.
A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE. MINS EARLY MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE L30S NW...TO THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LLVL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH A
VERY LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE OF JUST 2 KFT AGL AT KBFD.
850 MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO -3 OR -4C BEHIND THIS /INITIAL/
CFRONT...AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON....TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL VARY FROM THE U30S NEAR KBFD...TO THE MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS REGION...AND L-M 50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 20S MONDAY...WHILE WILL
ADD A LITTLE CHILL TO THE OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER FRONT...
LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30 POP.
THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.
FOR NOW...LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR TUE MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPS ABOVE 32 ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BASED ON WWD GRAPHICS NOT HAVING ANY ZR OR SNOW IN
FCST...ALONG WITH FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THAT 12Z MODELS
HAVE LOW TRACKING WEST OF OUR AREA. THUS HAVE JUST RAIN SHOWERS
IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER 12Z WED. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. 558 THICKNESS FCST TO STAY SE OF
OUR AREA. IF THE 558 THICKNESS WAS TO GET THIS FAR NORTH...THEN
ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
QPF NOT FCST TO BE THAT HIGH...THUS NOT EXPECTING FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A
LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE IS MUCH
STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME GEFS
MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG RANGE...UNLESS
THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH A PAIR/TRIPLET
OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL. DID ADD IN SOME SMALL CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE LAST SECOND HERE. ENJOY THE
MILD EVENING TONIGHT. WE GET AN EXTRA DAY IN FEB THIS YR.
THIS LOOKING TO BE A MILD DAY TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE WIND-RELATED. RELATIVELY
DEEP BLYR MIXING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN 20-25KT SFC GUSTS FROM
210-240 DEGREES AS OF 22Z.
A CORE OF VERY STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE GRT
LKS TONIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO LLWS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD FAVOR MORE
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 10Z-15Z...ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF SHOWER IN MOST LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY ALSO ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WHERE PLUME OF
MOISTURE ALONG FRONT ASCENDS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE MTNS THRU ARND MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE SHOULD BRING BREAKING CLOUDS
AND A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS DURING MON AFTN.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR AND DECREASING WINDS. BRIEF MVFR IN
-SHSN POSSIBLE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NW MTNS WITH A
SECONDARY CFRONTAL PASSAGE.
TUE NGT...RAIN/SNOW/ICE MIX PSBL NW AIRSPACE. RAIN CENTRAL-EAST.
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.
WED...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS PSBL WESTERN 1/3 AIRSPACE.
THU...PM SNOW/SUB-VFR PSBL ESP SOUTHERN 1/2 AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH ITS TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...TO ONE INCH. A RETURN TO COLDER...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD AND KIPT HAVE BEEN SURPASSED OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND ANOTHER DEG F OR SO SHOULD BE TACKED ON TO THESE
PRIOR TO 21Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE: KBFD - 53F IN 1983...KAOO - 63F
SET IN 1955....63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954...AND KMDT - 68F IN 1976.
WE`VE ALREADY ECLIPSED TWO OF THEM...KAOO MAY BE TIED BASED ON THE
18Z HRRR. HOWEVER...KMDT SEEMS SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF
REACH WITH A FCST HIGH THERE OF JUST 61-62F.
SUB 995 MB SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE OR
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT AND FAST MOVING NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A DWINDLING RIBBON OF 0.75 PWATS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND UP TO ONE OR
TWO TENTHS OF RAINFL ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LESS QPF HEADING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
AND SUSQ REGION.
A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE. MINS EARLY MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE L30S NW...TO THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LLVL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH A
VERY LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE OF JUST 2 KFT AGL AT KBFD.
850 MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO -3 OR -4C BEHIND THIS /INITIAL/
CFRONT...AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON....TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL VARY FROM THE U30S NEAR KBFD...TO THE MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS REGION...AND L-M 50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 20S MONDAY...WHILE WILL
ADD A LITTLE CHILL TO THE OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER FRONT...
LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30 POP.
THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.
FOR NOW...LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR TUE MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPS ABOVE 32 ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS BASED ON WWD GRAPHICS NOT HAVING ANY ZR OR SNOW IN
FCST...ALONG WITH FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THAT 12Z MODELS
HAVE LOW TRACKING WEST OF OUR AREA. THUS HAVE JUST RAIN SHOWERS
IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER 12Z WED. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. 558 THICKNESS FCST TO STAY SE OF
OUR AREA. IF THE 558 THICKNESS WAS TO GET THIS FAR NORTH...THEN
ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
QPF NOT FCST TO BE THAT HIGH...THUS NOT EXPECTING FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A
LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE IS MUCH
STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME GEFS
MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG RANGE...UNLESS
THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH A PAIR/TRIPLET
OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL. DID ADD IN SOME SMALL CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE LAST SECOND HERE. ENJOY THE
MILD EVENING TONIGHT. WE GET AN EXTRA DAY IN FEB THIS YR.
THIS LOOKING TO BE A MILD DAY TOO.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL WIND-RELATED. RELATIVELY DEEP
BLYR MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LED TO 20-25KT SFC GUSTS FROM
210-240 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM 230-240 DEGREES INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS
WITHIN A FEW KFT AGL LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAST- MOVG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...THEN HEADS DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
MAINTAINED LLWS AFTER 00Z MON. HOWEVER...LACK OF DECOUPLING MAY
FAVOR MORE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS. GUSTS WITH
COLD FROPA COULD REACH 30KT...AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS
BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL
ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE BTWN 06-12Z MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BFD/JST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THEN...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR AND DECREASING WINDS. BRIEF MVFR IN
-SHSN POSSIBLE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NW MTNS WITH A
SECONDARY CFRONTAL PASSAGE.
TUE NGT...RAIN/SNOW/ICE MIX PSBL NW AIRSPACE. RAIN CENTRAL-EAST.
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.
WED...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS PSBL WESTERN 1/3 AIRSPACE.
THU...PM SNOW/SUB-VFR PSBL ESP SOUTHERN 1/2 AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
302 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH ITS TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...TO ONE INCH. A RETURN TO COLDER...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD AND KIPT HAVE BEEN SURPASSED OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND ANOTHER DEG F OR SO SHOULD BE TACKED ON TO THESE
PRIOR TO 21Z.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE: KBFD - 53F IN 1983...KAOO - 63F
SET IN 1955....63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954...AND KMDT - 68F IN 1976.
WE`VE ALREADY ECLIPSED TWO OF THEM...KAOO MAY BE TIED BASED ON THE
18Z HRRR. HOWEVER...KMDT SEEMS SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF
REACH WITH A FCST HIGH THERE OF JUST 61-62F.
SUB 995 MB SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE OR
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT AND FAST MOVING NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A DWINDLING RIBBON OF 0.75 PWATS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND UP TO ONE OR
TWO TENTHS OF RAINFL ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LESS QPF HEADING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
AND SUSQ REGION.
A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE. MINS EARLY MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE L30S NW...TO THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LLVL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH A
VERY LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE OF JUST 2 KFT AGL AT KBFD.
850 MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO -3 OR -4C BEHIND THIS /INITIAL/
CFRONT...AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON....TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL VARY FROM THE U30S NEAR KBFD...TO THE MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS REGION...AND L-M 50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 20S MONDAY...WHILE WILL
ADD A LITTLE CHILL TO THE OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER FRONT...
LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30 POP.
THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.
THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE TO OUR WEST AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE THROUGH. AS THE TROUGH
DIPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IT DEVELOPS A STORM OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY ON TUES. BY THE TIME APPRECIABLE PRECIP GETS TO NWRN
PA...NIGHT WILL HAVE FALLEN. COUPLE THAT WITH THE MORE-CERTAIN
TRACK OF THE LOW /WHICH LOOKS TO PASS OVER NWRN OR CENTRAL PA/ AND
YOU GET THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SOME SNOW TO STICK OVER THE NW.
MOST PLACES IN CENTRAL PA WILL ONLY SEE RAIN AS THE STORM MOVES
THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WED AM. BUT ACCUMS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT/S PACKAGE...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ZR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW CHC OF IT
OCCURRING IN THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE M30S OR MILDER
TUES NIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS MORE CERTAIN ON
TIMING AS MOST GUID HAS IT COMING THRU WED AM. HOWEVER...THE GFS
IS PUMPING OUT PRECIP IN THE COLD AIR ON WED OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS THERE...BUT THE EC WHIPS THE FRONT ON
THRU AND DOES NOT DEVELOP THE WAVE TO OUR S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME LATE THURS TO EARLY FRIDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE
IS MUCH STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME
GEFS MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG
RANGE...UNLESS THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH
A PAIR/TRIPLET OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL WIND-RELATED. RELATIVELY DEEP
BLYR MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LED TO 20-25KT SFC GUSTS FROM
210-240 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM 230-240 DEGREES INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS
WITHIN A FEW KFT AGL LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAST- MOVG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...THEN HEADS DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
MAINTAINED LLWS AFTER 00Z MON. HOWEVER...LACK OF DECOUPLING MAY
FAVOR MORE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS. GUSTS WITH
COLD FROPA COULD REACH 30KT...AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS
BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL
ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE BTWN 06-12Z MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BFD/JST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THEN...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR AND DECREASING WINDS. BRIEF MVFR IN
-SHSN POSSIBLE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NW MTNS WITH A
SECONDARY CFRONTAL PASSAGE.
TUE NGT...RAIN/SNOW/ICE MIX PSBL NW AIRSPACE. RAIN CENTRAL-EAST.
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.
WED...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS PSBL WESTERN 1/3 AIRSPACE.
THU...PM SNOW/SUB-VFR PSBL ESP SOUTHERN 1/2 AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
DAY TODAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE TONIGHT AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM WILL OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW AND LAST INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
SFC INVERSION HAS BEEN MIXED OUT IN ALL LOCATIONS...AND TEMPS ARE
RISING STEADILY...ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE L-M 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...AND L-M 60S
THROUGHOUT THE MOST OF THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN.
13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD - 53F IN 1983...AND KAOO - 63F SET IN
1955 APPEAR TO BE THE LOW HANGING FRUIT TO BE HARVESTED BY TODAY`S
WARMTH. THE 63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954 COMES NEXT...WITH KMDT`S 68F
RECORD FROM 1976 SEEMING SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF REACH.
THE COOLER READINGS WILL BE ON THE HILL TOPS WHERE MIXED LAYER IS
NOT AS THICK AND IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPS AT 925MB WILL BE 4
TO 6C COLDER THAN OVER THE SC MTNS.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES FROM LOWER ONTARIO TO MAINE OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.
THE UPPER WAVE IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY AND THE MOISTURE INFLUX IS
MEAGER...ESP BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS TO PA. THE LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE HELD TO VERY CLOSE TO THE FRONT...AND TEMP PROFILE THROUGH
THE TIME OF MOST MOISTURE IS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN. GROUND TEMPS
SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH MIN TEMPS BETWEEN 32F NW AND 45F IN THE
SC COS. TEMPS DO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT ALSO DRIES OUT
QUICKLY. THUS...WHILE SOME LINGERING SHSN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LAURELS IN THE EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY...THEY REALLY SHOULDN/T
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL GENERATE SOME
STRATOCU FOR THE NW BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BECOME SUNNY.
MAXES WILL RUN 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SE THANKS TO THE
DOWNSLOPE AND SUN - BUT BE 2-3F COOLER THAN NORMALS IN THE NW
MTNS.
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER
FRONT...LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY HANG UP
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. 8H TEMPS DIP ONLY A COUPLE DEGS
C...BUT THE COLD AIR IS PROBABLY VERY SHALLOW. FLURRIES MAY BE
FOUND OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30
POP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.
THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE TO OUR WEST AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE THROUGH. AS THE TROUGH
DIPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IT DEVELOPS A STORM OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY ON TUES. BY THE TIME APPRECIABLE PRECIP GETS TO NWRN
PA...NIGHT WILL HAVE FALLEN. COUPLE THAT WITH THE MORE-CERTAIN
TRACK OF THE LOW /WHICH LOOKS TO PASS OVER NWRN OR CENTRAL PA/ AND
YOU GET THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SOME SNOW TO STICK OVER THE NW.
MOST PLACES IN CENTRAL PA WILL ONLY SEE RAIN AS THE STORM MOVES
THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WED AM. BUT ACCUMS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT/S PACKAGE...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ZR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW CHC OF IT
OCCURRING IN THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE M30S OR MILDER
TUES NIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS MORE CERTAIN ON
TIMING AS MOST GUID HAS IT COMING THRU WED AM. HOWEVER...THE GFS
IS PUMPING OUT PRECIP IN THE COLD AIR ON WED OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS THERE...BUT THE EC WHIPS THE FRONT ON
THRU AND DOES NOT DEVELOP THE WAVE TO OUR S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME LATE THURS TO EARLY FRIDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE
IS MUCH STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME
GEFS MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG
RANGE...UNLESS THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH
A PAIR/TRIPLET OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 28/15Z TAFS THROUGH 29/12Z
ISSUED 1030 AM EST FEB 28 2016
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS 12Z TAF PACKAGE. JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL WIND-RELATED. BLYR
MIXING RESULTS IN 20-25KT SFC GUSTS FROM AROUND 230 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM 230-240 DEGREES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAST-MOVG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI AND UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
MAINTAINED LLWS AFTER 00Z MON HOWEVER LACK OF DECOUPLING MAY FAVOR
MORE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS. GUSTS WITH COLD
FROPA COULD REACH 30KT. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL ALSO
BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE BTWN 06-12Z MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST- FRONTAL IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BFD/JST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
PM MON-TUE...VFR AND DECREASING WINDS.
TUE NGT...RAIN/SNOW/ICE MIX PSBL NW AIRSPACE. RAIN CENTRAL-EAST.
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.
WED...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS PSBL WESTERN 1/3 AIRSPACE.
THU...PM SNOW/SUB-VFR PSBL ESP SOUTHERN 1/2 AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...TEMPS RISING MORE QUICKLY THAN FCST. MODEL WITH THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE WARMING SO FAR IS THE RAP. USED RAP TO REVISE
TEMPS INTO THE AFTN...THOUGH ITS MAX TEMP IS GENERALLY WITHIN A
DEGREE OF PREV FCST. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO DEWPTS
BASED ON NAM MOS...WHICH WERE A LITTLE LOWER. THUS THE MIN RH
EXPECTATION /FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS/ IS A BIT LOWER TOO. STILL
NOT MEETING CRITERIA FOR FIRE DANGER STMT.
AT 230 AM SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND REACH THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MOIST NW FLOW
PERSISTING IN ITS WAKE ALONG THE TN BORDER. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT...AND A RATHER
LIGHT ONE AT THAT...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NC MOUNTAINS.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE WEST END OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
WITH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK AND FAIRLY
DRY SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BUT EVEN THESE DRYING UP BY MIDDAY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
NEXT SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION STARTING BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE /WELL..AS THEY HAVE BEEN DOING FOR THIS SYSTEM
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS/ WITH THE ECMWF SPEEDING THE SHORTWAVE
UP WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A NEUTRAL- OR EVEN NEGATIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH...LIFTING THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND DRYING US OUT
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH POSITIVELY-TILTED AND
IS MUCH SLOWER...WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT REMAINING STRETCHED
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES VERY LOW BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OR IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND.
AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY...MIGHT BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED
THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES. BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARRIVES...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER AT THIS
TIME...BUT THIS MAY VERY WELL CHANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND LACK
OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...WITH
STRONG SHEAR PUSHING IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE NON-ZERO THREAT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THE HSLC VARIETY. ADDITIONALLY...WPC QPF
VALUES HAVE INCREASED ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS
WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-TERM
SYSTEM...WITH DEEP-LAYER CAA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 8-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLING TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WELL WITH MEAN TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...THOUGH SPECIFICALLY IN OUR AREA WE SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE WIDE TROUGH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE VERY PROGRESSIVE WAVETRAIN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY..SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ABOUND BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING A SURFACE LOW UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. GFS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER DESPITE A GENERALLY
SIMILAR LOOK TO THE UPPER MASS FIELDS. HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A BLEND
OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BUT CAPPED POPS AT LOW CHANCES
FOR NOW...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AS
IT EXITS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
LINED UP TO PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO MANY DETAILS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCLT AND FOOTHILLS...VFR. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE
CLOUD COVER...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW VFR CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOR BE ENOUGH FOR A
EVEN A LOW VFR CIG. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY
MOIST ALOFT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS QUITE LIMITED. LLWS CRITERIA MAY BE MET
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT BENEATH STRONG FLOW ALOFT...PARTICULARLY
OVER KCLT/KHKY. PER COLLABORATION WITH CWSU ZTL...THE CHANCE
OF LLWS AFFECTING OPS AT KCLT EARLY IN THE MORNING IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THAT TAF. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH GUSTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS BACKING OFF
A BIT OVERNIGHT.
AT KAVL...LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD BACK SW AND SEE GUSTS INCREASE
THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
FRONT...BUT CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW FOR A CIG. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE APPEARS TO
REMAIN NEAR THE TN BORDER...AND W OF KAVL. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SW TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH MODEST GUSTS
PERSISTING. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS NEAR
KAVL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT AT THE FIELD.
OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS MARGINAL. A
MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THRU IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 71%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT TODAY...AND EVEN DOWN TO AROUND
25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT DO
NOT QUITE APPEAR TO REACH 25 KNOTS IN AREAS WHERE RH IS LOW. IN
ADDITION...FIRE DANGER RATING CLASS WAS LOW TO MODERATE YESTERDAY...
AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOW TO MODERATE TODAY...AND THEREFORE NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
525 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE 03Z-05Z
PERIOD. BY 06Z EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. KDRT WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS LATER BUT STILL LOOKING
FOR IFR CONDITIONS BY 11Z. FOG IS GOING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06Z. VSBYS MAY NOT FALL AS LOW BUT STILL LOOKING FOR 1-3 MILES.
COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. CIGS AND VSBYS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
AND SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 18Z-19Z. WINDS WILL BE S/SE NEAR 10
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KDRT
AROUND 16Z AND THE I-35 SITES 19Z-21Z. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST
NORTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. BEHIND THIS LOW...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15 MPH. THINK THE BULK OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
AND THIS IS WHERE THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST POTENTIAL. CANT
RULE OUT ANY DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE FOG.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF THUNDER CHANCES
WITH SPC PULLING OUT THE MENTION OF MARGINAL RISK IN OUR CWA.
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
AND WILL JUST FORECAST A 20 POP FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM SHOULD STAY MOSTLY QUIET. SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK
FRONT DROPS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THIS WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY
WHICH COULD PROMOTE WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A
STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME OF THE EFFECTS FROM THAT SYSTEM BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CYCLE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 78 47 73 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 78 43 73 56 / 10 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 61 80 46 73 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 75 43 71 57 / 10 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 84 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 43 72 58 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 82 46 74 55 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 45 72 57 / 10 10 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 78 46 72 58 / 10 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 80 48 73 58 / 10 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 81 49 74 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
241 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD
WITH A LATEST POSITION THROUGH ABILENE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WITH THIS FRONT IS ALREADY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG PRODUCTION
OVERNIGHT AND WILL FORECAST PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG OUT FOR NOW
AND LATER SHIFTS CAN INTRODUCE IT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE.
ANY POTENTIAL FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS WILL MIX-OUT BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
80S WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS WILL
BE HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB AND THE NAM/ECMWF IS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE TO NO QPF WITH THE FROPA. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER CAP AND
THEREFORE IS PROGGING SOME QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20/30
POPS MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN AREAS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 35 KNOTS. THESE VALUES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE WITH POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE
EASTERN AREAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE TEMPERATURES AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE A DRY FROPA. MODELS
THEN SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT-FLOW BY SUNDAY
WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW ON DAY 7 AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS UPPER PATTERN IS
LOW THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 78 62 76 46 / 0 - 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 78 61 77 44 / 0 - 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 79 61 78 46 / 0 0 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 76 60 73 43 / 0 0 10 20 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 82 59 82 49 / 0 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 77 61 73 43 / 0 0 10 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 79 60 79 44 / 0 0 10 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 78 61 78 45 / 0 - 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 79 62 77 46 / - 10 - 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 79 62 77 47 / 0 0 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 81 62 79 48 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
913 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SHORT TERM TRENDS WITH THE SNOW EVENT THAT
IS COMMENCING. SOME INITIAL HURDLES ARE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE WARM LAYER CAUSING MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20-30F...WHICH MEANS THAT IT WILL
TAKE SOME DECENT LIFT TO SATURATE OUT THIS LAYER THIS EVENING.
01.01Z RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THIS LAYER MOISTENING UP QUICKLY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE DEEPER FORCING MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE/850MB LOW. THE 01.01Z RAP ALSO SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL WARM
LAYER STAYING JUST SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER...SO AM
EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO STAY AS ALL SNOW FOR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE CHALLENGE THEN REMAINS WHAT TO DO WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THE
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
IN THE 6-14Z TIME FRAME WHEN THE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF
THE 850MB LOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE INTENSE AT TIMES WITH 1-2
INCHES POSSIBLE PER HOUR IN THE MAIN F-GEN BAND. DUE TO SOME WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY WOBBLE A BIT NORTH AND MAYBE BACK SOUTH
BETWEEN THE WARNING COUNTIES AND NOT BE SITTING IN THE SAME
SPOT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVERALL...JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH TIMING OF THE SNOW DEVELOPING ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE AND BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS A SMIDGE ALONG THE
BORDER.
THE MAIN ISSUE IS WITH HOW LONG THE SNOW ENDS UP LINGERING
TOMORROW. AFTER THE 850MB LOW PASSES BY MID-LATE MORNING...COLDER
LOW LEVEL AIR PROPAGATES IN AND THE FETCH BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR. 01.01Z RAP SOUNDINGS FOR SBM
SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
850MB...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD NOT BE TOO INTENSE. WHILE
THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TOMORROW MORNING IS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1-3 INCHES...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
HANGING ON FOR A LITTLE LONGER WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLY GOING BEYOND
9AM TOMORROW MORNING. UPON COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE A LOOK AT THE
FULL SUITE OF 00Z/MESO GUIDANCE BEFORE EXTENDING THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.
OVERALL...SNOWFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING STILL
LOOK SIMILAR WITH 6-8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER. THE NEXT ROW OF COUNTIES
NORTH...IOWA COUNTY TO MILWAUKEE COUNTY...IS A BIT MORE VARIABLE
WITH ABOUT 4-6 INCHES OCCURRING...LOWER IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THESE COUNTIES. TOTALS THEN DECREASE GOING NORTH WHERE THERE IS
A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. TOTALS ARE
ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE SHORE DUE TO THE EXTRA INCH OR
SO FROM THE LAKE EFFECT.
ON TOP OF THIS...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
NORMAL AT 13:1...SO THIS SHOULD BE A DRIER/FLUFFIER SNOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL CAUSE FOR SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF
THE SNOW AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR AS THE SNOW BEGINS THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD CAUSE THE LOWER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT MKE A BIT LONGER
THAN MSN WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
VEER NORTH TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN. HIGH WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
12Z MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES WITH THE WINTER
STORM FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB LOW
TRACKS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL JET POINTS INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET ALSO PROVIDING GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
THE 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE 12Z
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS SOMEWHAT LOWER BUT SIMILAR...AND THE ECMWF TO LOWEST. THE NAM
SEEMS QUITE HIGH...THOUGH THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF SHORT TERM MODELS
WAS ALSO GOING WITH A HIGHER QPF TREND IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND SOME CROSSHAIRS
SIGNATURES LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FEATURES LISTED
ABOVE...BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AN INCH OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. CONCERNED THAT AMOUNTS MAY END UP A LITTLE HIGHER...GIVEN THE
ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. ALSO
CONCERNED ABOUT HIGHER LAKE ENHANCED AMOUNTS IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES...AS LAKE EFFECT FLOW CHART SUGGESTS A
FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION.
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SLOWED WITH BRINGING IN THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...SO ADJUSTED START TIME FOR THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO START AT 9 PM CST. ALSO ADDED
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...GIVEN THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RATHER STRONG NW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY NOTED. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FROM WI INTO THE OH
VLY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AT THE OUTSET THOUGH SOME
MODIFICATION IN 925 TEMPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 700 RH PROGS SHOW
SOME MOISTURE SLIDING THROUGH IN THIS FLOW WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM OFF TO OUR WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH FAIRLY WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION EVOLVING ACRS IA/MO WED NGT AND HEADING SEWD ON
THURSDAY. AREAS OF ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND ACRS SRN WI WED NGT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SE OF SRN WI THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD BEEN RATHER BENIGN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
THE 12Z RUN HAS COME IN LOOKING A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE OTHER MODELS.
THE GEM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE QPF AMOUNTS SUGGESTING A COUPLE
INCHES IN THE SRN AND WRN CWA WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING CLOSER TO
AN INCH.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROGGD TO BE ACROSS WI AT THE OUTSET AND THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO THE OH VLY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER SPREADING IN
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF HOLD THINGS OFF
TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. WILL GO WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH KEEPS
THE CWA DRY DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC/850
LOW TRAVERSING THROUGH SRN WI. 850 TEMPS AND 1000-500 MILLIBAR
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. THE ECMWF IS
A LITTLE WARMER ON THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS BUT STILL SHOWING MORE
OF A SNOW MAKER THEN A MIX OR RAIN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE A WARMING TREND. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH
AN 850 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIP
NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS THIS TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIP CHCS IN SRN WI. 850 TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
CELSIUS SUNDAY...ESP ON THE FASTER ECMWF. THEN ON MONDAY MODELS
IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON 564DM RIDGE BUILDING UP ACRS THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE GFS BECOMES THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WARMTH-WISE FOR
MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 11 OR 12C...WHILE THE ECMWF
REMAINS IN SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY UNTIL
THE SNOW ARRIVES.
SNOW WILL REACH TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z TUESDAY...WITH KENOSHA
BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS AND
SNOWFALL RATES FROM 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH RATES OF A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR BEFORE 06Z TUESDAY...AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES...HIGHEST
TOWARD KENOSHA.
THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF THIS SNOW EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
..WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OR SO ON TUESDAY POSSIBLE. SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND OR BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS BETWEEN 05Z TO 08Z TUESDAY...THEN REMAIN SO UNTIL LATER
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ062>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ052-056>060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
359 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW LOW PRESSURE
NEAR MINNEAPOLIS WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS MAKING FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TREND
THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE LA CROSSE THEN START TO COOL BY LATE MORNING AS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT EDGE SOUTH. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LA CROSS
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO VERY MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOCATIONS LIKE BOSCOBEL AND PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING ON 60 BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL BE BATTLING SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SO
THAT MAY TEMPER HOW MUCH WARMING OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH FORCING INCREASING LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
THIS AFTERNOON TOO WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN...WE WILL SEE
SPRINKLES DEVELOP WHICH COULD SWITCH OVER TO FLURRIES LATE AS
COOLER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. AFTER A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
25 TO 30 MPH IN OPEN AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THEN
A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. THE FRONT
THEN SLOWS AND HANGS UP ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INTERACTS
WITH A TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MANY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW
TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT WE COULD SEE A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE LOOK TO RETURN TO
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF INTERSTATE 94 WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
THE VWP FROM KARX INDICATES THE STRONGER WINDS DID WORK DOWN AND
HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME 40 KNOT RETURNS AT 2000 FEET THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR KLSE UNTIL 10Z AS
THE 28.00Z MODELS AND 28.03Z RAP CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
UP WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TO
ALLOW GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR BOTH SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE LOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
MOISTURE FIELD COMING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE
INTRODUCED A MVFR CEILING FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THESE CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
AT 3 PM...A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WIND HAD ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR...
LA CROSSE IS THE ONLY LOCATION THAT HAS TIED A RECORD. MORE ON
THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY GRASSES AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND HAS
ALLOWED ONE GRASS FIRE TO START NEAR DRESBACH MN. FORTUNATELY...
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS NEVER DROPPED AS LOW AS ANTICIPATED OR WE
COULD HAVE HAD MORE ISSUES WITH GRASS FIRES THIS AFTERNOON.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
WE WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL
WE ARE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE GREATEST SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. A WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. HOWEVER WITH BOTH THE ARW AND NMM NOT
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE MORNING...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
WINTRY MIX AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S NORTHWEST AN AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO OWEN WISCONSIN LINE...AND
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
ON MONDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE DEEPEST
SATURATION AND FORCING WILL BE TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29
WHERE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS. WITH THE
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT MOST OF IT WOULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AND THERE WOULD BE ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM ALOFT...WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW THERE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE
TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT SHIFTS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT THE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A
RESULT...WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE GOES INTO SATURATION...THUS...ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE
UP TO AN INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
TEENS. WITH THIS MODEL BEING WAY TOO COLD /THE AVERAGE OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS AT THIS TIME PERIOD IF RUNNING AROUND 10F TOO COLD/
DURING THE PAST MONTH...KEPT THE FORECAST NEAR THE MODEL BLEND.
THIS HAPPENS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
THE VWP FROM KARX INDICATES THE STRONGER WINDS DID WORK DOWN AND
HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME 40 KNOT RETURNS AT 2000 FEET THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR KLSE UNTIL 10Z AS
THE 28.00Z MODELS AND 28.03Z RAP CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
UP WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TO
ALLOW GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR BOTH SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE LOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
MOISTURE FIELD COMING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE
INTRODUCED A MVFR CEILING FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THESE CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
SO FAR TODAY...LA CROSSE IS ONLY PLACE TO TIE A RECORD. WITH
60 DEGREES...IT TIED 1896 AND 1976 FOR THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON THIS DATE. IT WAS THE 12TH CONSECUTIVE TIME THAT WE
HAVE A RECORD TEMPERATURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LEDGER /5 RECORD
HIGHS AND 7 WARMEST LOW/. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A RECORD COLD
MAXIMUM OR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SEPTEMBER 12 2014.
THIS WAS THE 9TH EARLIEST DATE IN THE YEAR THAT LA CROSSE HAS REACHED
60 DEGREE DAY. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURE THIS
EARLY IN A YEAR WAS BACK IN 2000 /FEBRUARY 23RD/. THE EARLIEST 60
DEGREE TEMPERATURE IN A YEAR WAS BACK IN 1882 /FEBRUARY 11TH/.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE RECORDS FROM THE
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...BUT THEY DO NOT REPORT UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
344 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY. CURRENTLY SEEING A SUBSEVERE LINE MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH A FEW 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS BEING RECORDED.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...CELLS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WILL INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY
CATCH UP TO THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS AREA BY
MIDMORNING. DO BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT
SHOWS STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND MID DAY. GENERAL THINKING IS TO DISCOUNT THE
NAM...DO THINK STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NW WINDS BEING SEEN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE IS FCST TO CONT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO INDC A SERIES OF WEAK UPR LVL
IMPULSES WL AFFECT THE FA ABT EVERY 36 TO 48 HRS.
THE PD WL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYS PASSING QUICKLY N
OF AR ON THU. THIS SYS WL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS TODAY/S STORM
SYS...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING CDFNT
THRU AR. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FNT...SO ANY SVR WX IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE FA.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE REGION FOR FRI/FRI NGT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYS WL BRING A DRY FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR BY SAT...FOLLOWED
BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO
MODIFY ON SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD AND SLY WINDS RETURN. RAIN
CHCS WL AGAIN RETURN BY MON AS A NEW STORM SYS APCHS FM THE NW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 31 55 45 / 80 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 68 37 63 47 / 80 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 54 30 57 43 / 80 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 36 60 46 / 80 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 36 59 46 / 80 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 70 37 61 47 / 80 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 34 61 42 / 80 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 30 56 43 / 80 0 0 30
NEWPORT AR 61 31 54 45 / 80 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 67 37 58 45 / 80 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 33 60 42 / 80 0 0 30
SEARCY AR 67 31 54 42 / 80 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 67 34 56 44 / 80 0 0 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1008 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS CREPT BACK UP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AS OF 6
PM...AND WILL THUS LET RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT....
CURRENTLY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EASILY BEING MET OVER SRN EL
PASO...ERN FREMONT...AND MOST OF PUEBLO COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS SO FAR AT
KPUB TODAY WAS 72 DEGREES...SETTING A NEW RECORD FOR MOST 70 DEGREE
OR HIGHER DAYS IN FEBRUARY...TEN. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE WARNED AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN GUST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SWRD THROUGH ERN CO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH. BY THAT TIME...RH LEVELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH SO
CURRENT TIMING OF THE RED FLAG LOOKS ON TARGET.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE CENTRAL
MTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT SHOWING
ANY PRECIP OUT OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHILE THE 18Z NAM
STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY PRECIP...IN PARTICULAR OVER KIOWA COUNTY.
WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POPS OF AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR AMOUNT
FOR THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
TOMORROW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BUT STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST OF MARCH. MARCH WILL DEFINITELY BE COMING
IN AS A LAMB...AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND THE AREA REMAINS COMPLETELY
DRY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
...POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT. ON WED A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WL BRING SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED...THE NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN AREAS...WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY. NOT SURE THAT ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WOULD OCCUR OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SO WL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WED WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS. RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG. THE
GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE WINDS THAN THE NAM...WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.
A WEAK UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THU...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AND LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE.
THAT UPR RIDGE THEN GETS FLATTENED THU NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. FRI THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE FROM MT AND
WY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WL SEND A FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN CO
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY. ALOFT...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE REBUILDING OVR
THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY AND FRI NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
PCPN OVER THE MTN AREAS ON FRI. TEMPS ON FRI WL STILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AGAIN.
SUN AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. SOME
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CONTDVD DURING
THE DAY. ON MON THE UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH PCPN STILL MAINLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AT TIMES TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB...ANTICIPATE THAT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Surface cold front has reached from Macomb to Pontiac this evening
with temperatures falling over ten degrees in an hour immediately
behind the front at Galesburg and Lacon. The front should reach at
least through Peoria and Bloomington, but could stall out before
reaching Lincoln and Champaign due to southerly flow ahead of a
developing low approaching from the west. Although radar
indicates echoes just behind the front, not finding any reports of
rain reaching the ground as low levels are quite dry and cloud
bases remain quite high. Increasing moist warm advection along the
frontal zone should allow precipitation to begin developing NW of
the Illinois River toward midnight...eventually spreading toward
the Indiana state line by daybreak. Also toward daybreak, enough
cold air spreading southward into Knox, Stark, and Marshall
counties that a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow are
possible. Further southeast, a changeover to snow, and perhaps
some brief sleet, is expected behind the low during the daytime
Tuesday, with only light or no accumulation. Isolated
thunderstorms late tonight and early Tuesday remain possible from
about Taylorville to Crawford County southward remain a
possibility. No significant updates needed to current forecast
which depicts the situation well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
Latest surface map shows the cold front has dropped into northern
Illinois, from the north side of the Chicago metro to near Moline,
then westward into southern Nebraska. Main effect so far has been
extensive mid and high clouds north of the boundary, with scattered
clouds to the south. Temperatures at 2 pm over our forecast area
range from the mid 50s near the Indiana border, to the lower 60s
across most areas from highway 51 westward.
High-resolution model guidance brings the front to about a Macomb-
Bloomington-Hoopeston line by mid to late evening, where it should
hang up while low pressure tracks across northern Missouri
overnight. Have maintained some chance PoP`s late evening west of
the Illinois River, but am thinking most of the activity in our area
will be moving out of west central Illinois after midnight as a
substantial dry layer will be moistened from the top down. North of
the front, forecast soundings mostly above freezing in the lower
layers, with main threat for any freezing rain or sleet before
sunrise across the extreme northern CWA toward Toulon and Lacon.
South of the front, have introduced some mention of isolated
thunderstorms late tonight from about Taylorville to Effingham and
Flora, as MUCAPE`s off the RAP model indicate some modest
instability of a few hundred J/kg.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
There is relative agreement in the models on tracking the surface
low across Illinois roughly between I-70 and I-72. They also agree
that the low will move into Indiana by 18z/Noon on Tuesday, with the
Canadian the slowest, having the low center barely past the border
with Indiana at 18z. The very fast speed of movement will limit the
potential for snow, sleet and/or ice accumulation across our
counties, as precip will be diminishing or ending as the cold air
pushes farther southeast across our forecast area Tues afternoon.
Our areas north of I-74 will have the best potential to see few
tenths of an inch of snow or sleet accumulation, with the best
chances being from Galesburg to Lacon where the coldest air will
reside most of the day. Freezing rain potential will be mainly
between Galesburg and Lacon as well, as that area will most likely
not rise much above freezing if at all during the day on Tuesday.
As far as thunderstorms are concerned, we see some MUCAPE values of
100-200 J/Kg south of the track of the low, so we included a chance
of storms south of I-70 in the first half of the morning. Even in
the areas that see all rain, QPF amounts will struggle to climb
above 0.10" south of I-74. Any locations that see a thunderstorm
could climb up to a quarter inch.
Lingering light rain or snow will end by Tuesday evening for the
most part. Areas along the Indiana border could see trace amounts
of precip linger into the evening. Otherwise, northwest winds
gusting to 25 mph will usher in a colder airmass, as lows dip into
the teens north of I-74 and into the mid 20s south of I-70.
A brief period of high pressure on Wednesday will provide dry
conditions with slightly below normal highs in the upper 30s to low
40s.
The next wave of wintry weather will develop Wed evening in a warm
air advection regime. A warm frontal circulation is expected to
develop across IL by midnight, with frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer driving precip overnight. Then, low pressure is expected to
pass across southern IL, keeping a period of prolonged lift north of
the low in the TROWAL. The extended period of snow could help push
snow accums by Thursday afternoon into the 2 to 3 inch range north
of a line from Canton to Lincoln to Paris. Some rain could diminish
snow amounts just south of that line.
Precip will end Thursday night as high pressure builds into
Illinois. Friday will remain dry as well before yet another low
pressure system pushes across the area, this time across northern
Illinois. We kept slight chances of rain or snow for Friday night
N of I-74 and in most areas on Saturday. Beyond that, a warming
trend should develop, with dry conditions through the weekend and
into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A cold front currently aligned from KMQB-KBMI, but looks like it
will not reach KSPI-KCMI overnight. E-NE winds becoming breezy to
the north of the front, while S winds continue to the south. A
low pressure center will develop and approach rapidly from the
west...bringing chances for rain, MVFR cigs and vsby, and
potential for isold IFR cigs/vsby by early morning. Once the low
passes to the east...brisk NNW winds will develop at 15-20 kts
with gusts 25-30 kts. A period of sleet and snow showers will
also be possible in the afternoon. Have mentioned snow in KPIA-
KBMI-KCMI, but probabilities and timing uncertainties preclude
explicit mention at KSPI-KDEC at this time.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
200 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
A WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW BY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO SNOW WEST TO EAST THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY EVENING
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. ICE ACCUMULATION COULD APPROACH A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS AMONG MODELS
FOR SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS MAINLY DEALS WITH LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC LOW TRACK WHICH ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA AS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OVER TOP
ALONG WITH CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW LINE. AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET EXPECTED NEAR THE INDIANA AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO BUT COULD STILL VARY DEPENDING ON STORM
TRACK.
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING ALONG FRONT EVIDENT OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT PCPN ALONG LEADING BOUNDARY.
HIRES GUIDANCE TENDS TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS PCPN AND RADAR
TRENDS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA. WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE NORTH. BETTER FORCING FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPS LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM. FGEN RESPONSE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS
OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR SEVERAL RUNS WITH DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
PLACEMENT. MOST GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO OUR MI
COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH DEEPER COLD WEDGE IN PLACE BUT DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT...A MIX IS POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.
WEAKLY COUPLED JET ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
WILL AID IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. FROM OUR VANTAGE POINT
IT APPEARS THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE A NICE COMPROMISE WITH SFC LOW
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH TAKING LOW FROM
NEAR SPRINGFIELD IL AT 12Z TO KGUS AT 18Z AND WEST OF KCLE BY
00Z/02. GFS REMAINS SOUTH WITH LOW JUST NORTH OF OHIO RIVER AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OH BY 00Z/02. THE NAM HAS A MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH WARM SURGE ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE AND IS TAKING
MOST PCPN OVER TO FZRA ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE COLDER AND MAINLY SNOW. FOR THE POWT TOP DOWN PROCESS DID BLEND
IN RUC DATA AS FAR AS IT WILL GO OUT WITH THE COLDER GFS WHICH IS
CLOSER TO ECMWF IN THERMAL FIELDS THAN NAM. THE MAX LAYER
TEMPERATURE FOR THE RUC WAS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AS
WELL. CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH
MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET AT ONSET CENTRAL. COLDER AIR
THEN WRAPS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON CHANGING ANY RESIDUAL PCPN OVER
TO ALL SNOW.
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...MOST 12Z GUIDANCE DID TREND TOWARD LESS
PRECIPITATION WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION. NAM12 OF COURSE THE
OUTLIER WITH MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTH. HIRES ARW SUPPORTS
THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF GFS...ECMWF AND GEM AND FORECAST FOR NOW HAS
LEANED TOWARD THESE MODELS USING WPC GUIDANCE. SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 2-
4 INCHES POSSIBLE FAR NORTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL DELTA T VALUES BUT DECENT CYCLONIC FETCH AND GOOD DGZ.
KEPT POPS IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH ACCUMS AN INCH OR
LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
MARGINAL CONDITIONS TO BEGIN WITH...A FEW TENTHS AT BEST AND
LIKELY JUST FLURRIES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SECOND PACIFIC WAVE SET TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY IN SIMILAR FASHION TO TOMORROWS EVENT. LATEST
MODELS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD...CLIPPING MOST
OF OUR CWA WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME HEALTHY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...GOOD UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH POTENTIAL FOR COUPLED
JETS...A RELATIVELY DEEP PV ANOMALY...STRONG MIDLEVEL CVA...AND A
DECENT STRIPE OF DEFORMATION/FGEN ON NORTHERN FLANK OF SURFACE LOW.
MAIN QUESTION WILL OF COURSE BE EXACT TRACK AND THE QUALITY OF
FORCING THIS FAR NORTH. LATEST 12Z MODELS ACTUALLY IN DECENT
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING PARENT JET ENERGY IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
AND ISSUES SEEN WITH CURRENT EVENT. DID ADD SOME LIKELY POPS TO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS AT THIS
RANGE. MAY BE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. GOOD (OR BAD?) NEWS
IS THAT THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIP DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM TO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND NARROW DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BUT MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO DISCUSS DETAILS AT
THIS POINT. OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE SHARP WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS AND MORE 60+
DEGREE WEATHER EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY BY TUES-WED OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDS TO START WILL GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY THROUGH MID-LT
MORNING TIMED W/INFLUX OF MSTR INADV OF SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING EWD
OUT OF NRN MO. PROXIMITY OF DEEPER POLAR AIRMASS NORTH OF KSBN
MAKES LT MORNING FCST QUITE TRICKY GIVEN AS YET CONSIDERABLE MODEL
BASED NOISE ON HOW FAST THIS WRAPS SWD INTO THIS SYS. REGARDLESS A
PD OF MIXED PCPN XPCD INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A RAPID CHG OVR TO
MOD/HVY SNOW THIS AFTN W/A PD OF LK EFFECT SHSN TWD MID EVENING.
KFWA LIES DEEPER IN LL WARM TONGUE AND XPCD TO START AS -RA TWD NOON
FOLLOWED BY A PD OF MOD SNOW BY LTR AFTN BUT OF LIMITED DURATION AS
SYS LIFTS OUT RAPIDLY NEWD. ERLY WINDS TO START WILL BACK NW THIS
AFTN W/GUSTS AOA 25KTS LIKELY FM LT AFTN THROUGH ERLY EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ003-004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ005-006.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ001.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
258 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NW FLOW WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS COMPLETELY MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINING
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW GENERALLY RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY
BE "COOLER" TODAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SLOWLY RETREATING
TO THE EAST. WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...POSSIBLY NEAR 60 DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON MIXING. SHORTWAVE
RIDING AND STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT MIXING COMPLICATING HIGHS AND WINDS. EVEN THEN IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70F EVEN IF CLOUD COVER
LIMITS POTENTIAL. LESS CLOUD COVER AND WE COULD SEE LOCATIONS
APPROACH 80F. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 10F...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...I HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY MODELS
BELOW 700MB. NAM BL TDS ALSO APPEAR OVERDONE AND THIS IS THE ONE
MODEL THAT SHOWS ANY KIND OF ML/MU CAPE. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER CORRELATING WITH THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL FROM NAM/GFS (THOUGH GFS
FAVORS THE NE). I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
PLACE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...BUT AM NOT SOLD. IF NAM SOLUTION PANS
OUT I COULD ACTUALLY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEING FAVORED...AGAIN LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WARM AND DRY FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A HINT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. BY SATURDAY WITH THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTH AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWEST AS A BROADER TROUGH CARVES OUT AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE PRESENTING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE AREAS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
DONE VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY ANYTHING FROM WHAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION GAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY FEW-SCT250 W/
SOME PERIODS OF SKC LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR WINDS...KGLD
WILL NW 5-15KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS 15Z-22Z TUESDAY...THEN
BECOME SW AROUND 10KTS BY 02Z WEDNESDAY. KMCK WILL SEE WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS 17Z-23Z TUESDAY...THEN WSW AROUND
10KTS BY 23Z TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS LLJ BUILDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO ALLOW RH VALUES TO
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT MIXING WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS...THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING RFW
RH/WIND CRITERIA FOR THE NECESSARY 3HR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
(PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST). IT COULD BE VERY CLOSE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...SO I DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1052 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IA...ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO
WESTERN SD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN KS...INTO SW KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN CO/KS BY 12Z TUE. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP AND WITH LIMITED
CAPPING...STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY FLIRT WITH FAR SOUTHERN KS AFTER 03Z. BOTH NAM
AND RAP AGREE ON BETWEEN 1,000-2,000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME DIME SIZE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KS.
WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK TO NW FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED WITH YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THU. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO WARM TEMPS UP WED WITH
AREAS WEST OF I-135 GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S. THESE WARMER TEMPS
ARE SUPPORTED BY 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPS ALONG WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY
AFFECT ONLY NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS. SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI. ALL
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A MORE ROBUST
TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MUCH
WEAKER IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE WARMEST.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30-39 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE GUSTS DROP OFF SOME. THE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER EFFECTS.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY YIELD SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT (RSL/GBD/SLN/HUT/ICT).
STRONGER 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TARGETS FAR SOUTHEAST KS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THINK THE BRUNT OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CNU TERMINAL.
JMC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED FOR TUE AND
ESPECIALLY WED.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
TUE. AFTERNOON SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE SPEEDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE
30-40% RANGE TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER AREA WIDE.
THE BIGGER FIRE CONCERN DAY WILL BE WED WHEN WINDS FLIP BACK
AROUND TO THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ON WED AFTERNOON ALONG AND SE OF THE
KS TURNPIKE WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN
THE 20-30% RANGE TO PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO THE
UPPER END OF VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH
EXTREME. THEREFORE...BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED BOTH TUE AND WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 56 34 68 / 20 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 35 54 32 68 / 20 0 0 0
NEWTON 34 53 32 66 / 20 0 0 0
ELDORADO 36 54 32 65 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 39 56 33 68 / 30 10 0 0
RUSSELL 32 56 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 35 56 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 33 52 31 66 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 34 52 31 67 / 20 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 41 55 31 64 / 60 20 0 0
CHANUTE 38 52 30 62 / 30 20 0 0
IOLA 36 50 29 62 / 30 20 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 40 53 29 63 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1155 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POWERFUL SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100-150M AND EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW ALOFT BTWN UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND SOME UPR
RDGING OVER THE W PASSING THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTO SE ONTARIO.
SHARP COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES CRASHED THRU THE
CWA THIS MRNG...WITH NW WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 50 TO 55 MPH IN THE
STRONG CAA AND AHEAD OF PRES RISE CENTER FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
12Z H85 TEMPS IN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT WERE AS LO AS -25 TO
-30C AT INL AND YPL. ALTHOUGH SN AMOUNTS WERE NOT EXCESSIVE...THE
BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS CAUSED NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN OPEN AREAS. THE PRES RISE CENTER IS PASSING THRU THE CWA EARLY
THIS AFTN...SO WINDS/BLSN ARE DIMINISHING. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS...WITH PWATS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.05 INCH AT
YPL AND INL /25 PCT OF NORMAL/...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV HAVE CAUSED THE SN SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME SCATTERED AS WELL DESPITE THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR.
THE SN SHOWERS ARE MORE NMRS TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...WHERE LONGER
FETCH ACRS THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS IS MITIGATING THE LARGER
SCALE DRYING. BUT EVEN HERE THE SN SHOWERS ARE LIGHT. UNDER THE
DRIER AIR UPSTREAM OF LK SUP...SKIES ARE MOCLR TO THE E OF ARCTIC HI
PRES CENTER BLDG TOWARD SRN MANITOBA.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS/BLSN FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER TO THE E AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR THRU THE NGT...LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FCST TO LOWER INVRN BASE TO 3-
4K FT AGL AND INFLUX OF DRIER UPSTREAM AIR WL LIMIT LES POPS/
INTENSITY EVEN WHERE SOME OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ALONG A LK INDUCED TROF THAT CAN DVLP WITH A
WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT. BEST CHC FOR THE HIER LES POPS WL BE
OVER HOUGHTON/ONTONAGON AND COUNTIES AND IN AREAS NEAR LK SUP E OF
MUNISING. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
SLIDING TO THE S OF THE CWA WITH PASS OVHD...EXPECT LO TEMPS TO DROP
BLO ZERO AWAY FM THE LK SUP INFLUENCE. TENDED TO LOWER FCST MINS A
BIT IN THIS AREA CONSDIERING THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM
AIRMASS.
TUE...PERSISTENT NW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL CONTINUE...HOLDING H85 TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -18C. BUT LINGERING LO INVRN BASE AS WELL AS
INCRSG ACYC H925 FLOW/INFLUX OF DRIER LLVL AIR THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT
LES POPS/INTENSITY. MAX TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL...NOT FAR FM 20.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN NOAM WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SRLY
FLOW AND WARMING WILL INCREASE SUN INTO MON AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WEST AND A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES.
TUE NIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...WINDS VEERY MORE NRLY BRING HIGHER LES CHANCES TO THE WEST
INTO MARQUETTE COUNYT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER LATE WINTER DAYTIME
MIXING/DRYING ANY LES BANDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED...KEEPING
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR -17C...THE DIMINISHING WIND FIELDS AND DRY AIR OVER THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT LES GOING INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI UNTIL THE LES MOVES MAINLY OFFSHORE THU.
FRI-SAT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO THE SOUTH
OF UPPER MI.
SUN-MON...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS RIDING DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S MON AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
WITH AN INVERSION SET UP AT ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...MVFR CIGS WILL BE A POSSIBILTY WHENEVER A TERMINAL IS
AFFECTED BY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER NW WINDS...KCMX IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE NIGHT THRU THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES AT
TIMES...BUT WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON VIS. AT KIWD...SLIGHT VEERING OF
WINDS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
ANY LINGERING NW GALES THIS AFTN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DIMINSH BY EVENING WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HI PRES
MOVING IN FROM THE W. AS THE WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH...SO WILL THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. THEN WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS THRU THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Main concern today is timing of thunderstorms this morning. Latest
radar is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from
central Missouri southwestward into northeast Oklahoma with an
additional cluster of storms over south central Missouri.
This development is actually picked up pretty well by the latest
runs of the experimental HRRR which shows moving over the southern
two thirds of the CWA today. The storms over south central Missouri
are being forced by strong low level moisture convergence associated
with the low level jet whereas the storms over central Missouri are
along the surface cold front. The rain will quickly end from west to
east later this morning and early this afternoon as the shortwave
trough currently digging over the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska moves
through Missouri and Illinois this afternoon.
We will still reach our highs this morning ahead of the cold front
and then see nearly steady or falling temperatures the rest of the
day.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Tonight and Wednesday still looks dry in the wake of this trough
before the clipper comes down into the area on northwest flow on
Thursday. Path of the surface low promises to bring warmer air
into the area which will keep the precipitation type as mainly
rain with this system. System will exit the area quickly on
Thursday night, so have gone mainly dry with colder temperatures.
Still looks like we will see a warm up over the weekend as upper
pattern gradually becomes more zonal and then southwesterly by early
next week. The ECMWF is showing enough instability over the area by
next Monday to include a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will
go from below normal to above normal over the weekend with the
change in pattern as the ECMWF shows 850mb temps going from 0 to
+10C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 29 2016
Frontal boundary moving into forecast area, so will see some
showers develop ahead of it between 06z and 15z Tuesday. Cigs and
vsbys to remain VFR with activity, then lower to MVFR behind the
front. As for winds, south winds to veer to the northwest to north
and increase behind boundary. Winds to then diminish towards
sunset with cigs lifting to VFR. Cigs to begin scattering out
after 00z Wednesday. Kept mention of LLWS in metro area tafs,
mainly due to directional shear ahead of cold front, from 09z to
14z Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Frontal boundary moving into forecast area, so will see some
showers develop ahead of it by 10z Tuesday. Cigs and vsbys to
remain VFR with activity, then lower to MVFR behind the front.
Models indicating precipitation to linger over metro area as main
shortwave slides through, so keep rain in through 18z Tuesday. As
for winds, south winds to veer to the northwest and increase
behind boundary after 14z Tuesday. Winds to then diminish towards
sunset with cigs lifting to VFR. Cigs to begin scattering out
after 09z Wednesday. Kept mention of LLWS in metro area tafs,
mainly due to directional shear ahead of cold front, from 09z to
14z Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
MOSAIC RADAR DATA AS OF 0230Z REVEALED A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM NERN INTO S-CNTRL NEB WHICH APPEARS TO BE WELL
CORRELATED WITH A ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT AROUND 850
MB. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING SAMPLED A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
FROM ABOUT 900 MB THROUGH 650 MB...SO MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY EVAPORATING OR SUBLIMATING PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROGRESS EWD
TOWARD THE MO RIVER TONIGHT...ALONG THE AXIS OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH SOME MIXED PHASES (I.E. FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET)
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE PRIOR TO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS MEASURED A 140M HEIGHT FALL AT
GREAT FALLS WHILE A MEASURED 140KT 300MB JET WAS DIGGING UNDER THE
WAVE. A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW WITHIN
A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN CWA. BOTH THE RAP AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
INDICATE PCPN DEVELOPING AROUND 03Z IN OUR FAR NORTH...THEN
QUICKLY SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY 09Z. VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
COULD DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
SHORT LIVED. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
NORTH WITH A TRACE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 30.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATE TUESDAY AND DROP TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50S BY
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON TIMING
OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES WITH THE GFS BEING A MUCH FASTER
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO MUCH WARMER WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUE A RA/SN MIX IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON IT. IN ANY
CASE...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THOUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF PCPN TO OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. A WARMING
TREND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING A DEEP TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANY LEAD SHORTWAVES
THAT MAY EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THIS SYSTEM
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL BE DAY
7...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE ADDED
A THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
LAST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KOMA BETWEEN 06-07Z.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 15Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEAD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1145 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TO THE PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO MAINE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THRU THE NORTHERN CO`S WILL STALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. THE TEMP PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUCH
THAT THE PRECIP COULD COME AS EITHER SNOW...RAIN OR FZRA OR A MIX
OF THEM. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
STAYING DRY SO DON`T SEE ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THERE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT BUT WINDOW IS
SHRINKING RAPIDLY. THE OTHER CHANCE IS IN THE NW FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
ON. SINCE THE RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT SHOWING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE FZRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE...SEE NO REASON
TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL PUSH NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRANSITION ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHORE AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...AS
COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARM AIR ALOFT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN...EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND
SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST.
FLOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AS DRIER AIR DESCENDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP AS SNOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL IS IDEAL AT THIS TIME WITH FAIRLY GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30S FOR HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO DROP OFF. HOWEVER...IF MORE
CLEARING TAKES PLACE THAN ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WIND UP MUCH COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MOST SIMILAR. THE
MODELS BRING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BELIEVE GIVEN ITS SOUTHERN TRACK THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH. STILL...SEEMS REASONABLE
BARRING TRACK CHANGES THAT SOME AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INCREASING TO LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST BUT FOR NOW JUST WENT DRY AS
ENERGY WILL BE TRANSLATING TO THE COAST. SATURDAY ANOTHER LOW DROPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND PRECIP COULD BEGIN OR
MIX WITH RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE SNOW. DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH NORTH TO NE FLOW
NOW BEING REPORTED. EVEN WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THINK KERI MAY BRIEFLY
DIP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT BY DAYBREAK DOWNSLOPING EAST FLOW WILL
CAUSE THE CIGS TO IMPROVE AGAIN. EXPECTING VFR CIGS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE. PRECIP WILL START
ALONG I-75 AROUND 18Z AND BE MOSTLY RAIN. SOME SORT OF MIX COULD
OCCUR AT KTOL BUT TEMPS ALOFT GET PRETTY WARM. IT WILL TAKE TILL
EARLY EVENING FOR THE PRECIP TO REACH NW PA. BY THAT TIME THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEAR KCLE WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW TRACK. EXPECT ALL BUT THE FAR EAST END OF THE
AREA TO BE ALL SNOW BY 06Z WED. OF COURSE BY THAT TIME THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL BE A MESS TUESDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SE FLOW DURING THE DAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE LOW TRACK. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOT ARE POSSIBLE BY 00Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER
WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE LAKE WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES DROPPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND
DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TUESDAY
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM ILLINOIS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ENE TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
848 PM PST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THE TRAILING STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING STRONG WIND ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL MOUNTAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED INLAND...INCLUDING THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE CASCADES. THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FRIDAY AND ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE PORTLAND OREGON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR HAS BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE AFTER A SHORT OUTAGE EARLIER THIS
EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE AROUND 135W WITH A COUPLE OF
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER-RUNNING PRECIP HAS
ALREADY SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE S WA WATERS TO
CENTRAL OREGON AT 12Z. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND BELIEVE THIS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR OREGON CASCADES BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS...BUT IT
COULD GET CLOSE IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT. AS OF
04Z SNOW LEVELS IN THE S WA CASCADES WERE AROUND 4000 TO 4500
FEET...BUT CLOSER TO 5500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES.
THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE SIMILAR WIND CHARACTERISTICS AS THE
SUNDAY FRONT. HOWEVER...MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT AND TODAY CONTINUE TO
LOOK STRONGER...WITH A DEEPER SURFACE LOW HEADING TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND. 00Z NAM SHOWING 55-65 KT 925 MB WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
COAST 18Z TUE AND 55-65 KT 850 MB WIND SPEEDS AS FAR INLAND AS THE
OREGON COAST RANGE AND SW WA WILLAPA HILLS. STRONGEST WIND FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WA LOWLANDS
LOOKS TO BE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LATEST NAM STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM TUE EVENING...
PRIMARILY IMPACTING SW WA AND OREGON AREAS N OF A KONP TO KS12 LINE.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS TUE NIGHT...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS
GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND
NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SOME COASTAL
WIND...FOLLOWED BY SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CASCADES BY EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUING SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK EARLY FRIDAY...THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADY...PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT...AND PERHAPS MOST POTENT...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT JUST HOW CLOSE IT TRACKS TO
THE PACIFIC NW REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SOME SUGGESTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SPLIT...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WHILE PRECISE DETAILS...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND IMPACTS FOR THE WEEKEND...REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
MARKED BY ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION. FAR TOO SOON TO DISCERN ANY
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS...BUT WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS OPPOSED TO A
STATIONARY BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SETUP...CONCERNS MAY REMAIN MINIMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
THE CASCADE PASSES FOR MOST TO ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...WARM FRONT IS SPREADING STEADY -RA ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT SKIES REMAIN VFR AT MOST TERMINALS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY SNEAK IN FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE AIR
MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FROM THE RAIN.
PER THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS WARM FRONTAL
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME AROUND 12Z. AIR
MASS THEN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING POTENT COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THIS FRONT...WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 18Z...THEN 30-40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SHARP REDUCTIONS IN CIG/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE FRONT...BOTH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. A STRAY -TSRA OR
TWO ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY TO
REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT WITH VFR VSBYS. INCREASING CHANCE OF MVFR
FROM 08Z-12Z DUE TO CONTINUED -RA. BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN LIKELY TUE
MORNING...THEN COLD FRONT WILL BRING S WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT AND
SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AFTER 18Z TUE.WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING EVEN STRONGER
WINDS TUE. EXPECT GALES TO DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KT LATER TUE MORNING AND
TUE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME STORM GUSTS TO 50 KT IF COASTAL JET
DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW FOR THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SO WILL STICK WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR
NOW. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP GALES GOING TROUGH TUE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WED AND LATE THU...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE GALES. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SEAS HAVE SETTLED BACK DOWN TO THE EXPECTED 10-13 FT THIS EVENING
AFTER BRIEFLY SPIKING TO 16-17 FT AT BUOYS 46029/46248 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE PROLIFIC AND WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. 00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT...REACHING CAPE FLATTERY TUE EVENING. IF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
AS STRONG AS THE 00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST...IT COULD CREATE A DECENT
DYNAMIC FETCH WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO BE GREATER THAN
MODELED...POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 20 FEET AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. IN CASE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
CAUSE SEAS TO EXCEED 20 FEET...THE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS ABOVE 20 FT
LATE IN THE WEEK. WEAGLE/BOWEN/PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR WILLAPA
HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT USHERS IN
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT STILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP NWP ANALYSIS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING THAT IS HELPING DRIVE A
STORM COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING PLACE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LUBBOCK TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RAPIDLY CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LIFTING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND IN COMBINATION WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BETWEEN 3-6 KFT - UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO COME BY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH...ONLY THE CONVERGENCE
OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO HELP GENERATE A
SHALLOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COASTAL COUNTIES
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND
HAVE PLACED ONLY A SMALL 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEY WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES PER
VERTICAL MIXING PROFILES OF NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 7PM TONIGHT.
WITH CALMING WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE - LOWS
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S
AREAWIDE. A NICE SUNNY WARM-UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE LOW AND UPPER
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
TAKING SHAPE. BEFORE THAT TIME HOWEVER - PLEASANT, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY LATE WEEK...A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HOWEVER, BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO VERTICALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USER IN MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90F DEGREES
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. MORNING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MIX OUT TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EACH AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. LONG RANGE MODEL
AGREEMENT AS SHORED UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
PLACING MORE WEIGHT BEHIND THE SLOWER AND DEEPER AMPLIFIED GFS
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWED
AND DIVERTED OFF FROM ITS PREVIOUS OUTPUT TOWARDS THE GFS/GEFS. A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE TEXAS REGION AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG STORM
RISKS. HAVE KEPT THE HWO CLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE AS IT REMAINS TO
FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE BUT NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEAR A CLOSE WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 48 74 61 82 / 10 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 44 74 58 82 / 10 0 0 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 47 74 59 83 / 10 0 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 43 72 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 49 79 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 44 74 60 79 / - 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 46 75 56 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 46 74 59 82 / 10 0 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 47 73 60 80 / 10 0 0 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 49 74 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 50 76 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
247 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER
WE WILL SEE ANY CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES GET VERY WARM. 4 KM MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME WEAK ECHOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NSSL 4 KM SHOWING
ACTIVITY MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS (ONLY GOING OUT TO 3 AM AS
OF THIS WRITING). TTU 4 KM NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING (WHICH COULD
OCCUR AS WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VIRGA). OVERALL FEELING
HOWEVER IS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE MID-LEVEL THETA-E MAX IS LOCATED
AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG CAP (HIGH CIN) AND THE FACT THAT 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY
COULD PRECLUDE ANY STRONG CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SHOULD CAP BREAK
WITH SEA-BREEZE WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR MORE. IN SHORT...WILL GO WITH A 20
POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
ELSEWHERE...DID MENTION SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME AREAS
TOPPING 90 DEGREES.
SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT A STRONG COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SEEN AS UPPER TROUGH
WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN IS FORECAST
TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND NORTHERLY FETCH IS WEAK. STILL...
WILL SEE 50S MOST INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. GOING A BIT WARMER
WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I-
37 WILL ONLY SEE 70S...WITH NEAR 80 TO LOWER 80S WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. RETURN FLOW RESUMES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAINLY NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPROACHING SCA BUT OVERALL SCEC. ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WIND PROFILE
ACROSS S TX THURSDAY BECOMES WSW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT THAT IS PROG TO STALL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.
H85 TEMPS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE WARMER WSW FLOW AND WITH
GOOD DIURNAL MIXING...AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES /WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND LOW 80S NEAR VICTORIA/. SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DO NOTHING MORE
THAN DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CU. FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES ACROSS
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. QUASIZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE MERIDIONAL EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK AS A POWERFUL AND DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
BECOME WINDY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PREVENTING MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH INTO THE 60S.
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF
CONVECTION RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF
MOISTURE DEPTH CAN INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 59 77 61 87 / 20 20 10 0 0
VICTORIA 83 51 75 59 82 / 10 10 0 0 10
LAREDO 90 61 82 61 94 / 10 10 10 0 0
ALICE 91 56 81 60 91 / 20 20 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 58 76 63 80 / 20 20 10 0 0
COTULLA 87 54 80 58 91 / 10 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 55 79 62 90 / 20 20 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 82 62 73 63 81 / 20 20 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1047 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35 AT THIS
TIME AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL LOOKING
FOR ALL SITES TO BECOME MVFR THEN FALL TO IFR 07Z-09Z. KDRT WILL
BE A COUPLE HOURS LATER THAN I-35 TERMINALS. STILL THINK WINDS
DECREASE JUST ENOUGH TO GET FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF FOG ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z WHEN VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 1-3 MILES. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH THE FOG. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS. WILL SEE CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY 16Z-18Z. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL BE EAST OF I-35 BY 20Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. AFTER 02/02Z NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE 03Z-05Z
PERIOD. BY 06Z EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. KDRT WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS LATER BUT STILL LOOKING
FOR IFR CONDITIONS BY 11Z. FOG IS GOING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06Z. VSBYS MAY NOT FALL AS LOW BUT STILL LOOKING FOR 1-3 MILES.
COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. CIGS AND VSBYS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
AND SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 18Z-19Z. WINDS WILL BE S/SE NEAR 10
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KDRT
AROUND 16Z AND THE I-35 SITES 19Z-21Z. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST
NORTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. BEHIND THIS LOW...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15 MPH. THINK THE BULK OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
AND THIS IS WHERE THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST POTENTIAL. CANT
RULE OUT ANY DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH THE FOG.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF THUNDER CHANCES
WITH SPC PULLING OUT THE MENTION OF MARGINAL RISK IN OUR CWA.
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
AND WILL JUST FORECAST A 20 POP FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM SHOULD STAY MOSTLY QUIET. SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK
FRONT DROPS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THIS WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY
WHICH COULD PROMOTE WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A
STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME OF THE EFFECTS FROM THAT SYSTEM BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST CYCLE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 78 47 73 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 78 43 73 56 / 10 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 61 80 46 73 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 75 43 71 57 / 10 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 84 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 43 72 58 / 10 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 82 46 74 55 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 45 72 57 / 10 10 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 78 46 72 58 / 10 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 80 48 73 58 / 10 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 81 49 74 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
OBVIOUS FIRST CONCERN IS FALLING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACT FOR MORNING COMMUTE. SHORT WAVE MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS THROUGH AREA WITH BACK EDGE OF SNOW NOW EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN FORMING IN AREA OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL /700-
800 MB/ FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED NARROW AREA OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS WAVE MOVES IN...BUT HAVE BEEN A BIT PATCHY. WOULD
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING.
AREA OF SNOW ALSO SET UP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED WITH
BRIEF DRY SLOT OVER WARNED COUNTY IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH INCOMING HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AS LAST BAND MOVES
THROUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK. COULD SEE SOME 2-3" ADDITIONS BEFORE THINGS
END BY MID MORNING. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SNOW COVERED ROADS FOR
MORNING COMMUTE AND TOUGH DECISIONS FOR SCHOOLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. LUCKILY SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING SO DELAYS MIGHT WORK OUT WELL
FOR MANY. WILL DOWN GRADE WARNED AREA BUT EXPAND ADVISORIES THIS
MORNING BECAUSE OF THE TOTALS SO FAR AND IMPACT THAT IS EXPECTED ON
MORNING TRAVEL.
IN WAKE OF WAVE AFTER SNOW ENDS THIS MORNING...WILL SEE COOLER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND CLOUDS CLEARING. GIVEN SOME FRESH SNOW COVER
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
BY SEVERAL CATEGORIES...WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MINOR FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE REST OF WORK WEEK CENTER ON SHORT
WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND SNOW THREATS WITH EACH.
ALL MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE
CENTRAL MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE WORRIED THAT THIS
FORCING COULD BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT MODELS INSIST
ON BREAKING OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL NORTHEAST OF FEATURE. WILL
KEEP HIGHER SNOW CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR
STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE CLOSER TO FORECAST AREA AND COULD SEE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY AND LOCATION.
PERHAPS BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...WITH 40S EXPECTED...CLIMING INTO THE 50S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN PERIOD OF SOME RAIN/SHOWERS AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS EVENING INDICATES THE TWO SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS HAVE YET TO MERGE. THE LEAD WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE SECOND WAVE WAS COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA. THIS ESSENTIALLY HAS ALLOWED THE TWO AREAS OF SNOW
TO REMAIN SEPARATED WITH THE EAST/WEST BAND NORTH OF THE LOW IN
THE FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS. THE OTHER AREA
AHEAD OF THE SECOND WAVE WAS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE SEPARATE
PRECIPITATION AREAS AND TAKES THE EAST/WEST BAND OFF TO THE EAST
WITHOUT IT GETTING TO THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE AREA COMING IN
FROM THE WEST NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH AIRPORTS.
CONDITIONS GO DOWN TO IFR WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW AND WILL SHOW
THIS AS PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KRST AND IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KLSE. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VISIBILITY GOING BACK UP TO VFR WHILE THE CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. IT SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES
WITH VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ095-096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1131 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
GETTING A BIT MORE CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK
FOR THE SNOW MAKER EXPECTED TO SWEEP WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN POINTING TO A SPLIT SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOT PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH UNTIL IT
APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. STILL...THIS BIT OF ENERGY SHOULD PACK A
BIT OF A PUNCH. SOME QG CONVERGENCE WITH IT...AND GOOD SLOPING LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...PER NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING X-SECTIONS.
300 MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST LIFT LOCALLY SITS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI...FOCUSED MORE IN THE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z TIME FRAME.
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL EXTEND HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT QUESTION
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND 12Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL WORK A
BIT FARTHER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. NOW...ACCUMULATING SNOWS WORK
WELL INTO THE I-90 CORRIDOR...VENTURING A BIT NORTH OF THERE.
GRANTED...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE...BUT
EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS BRING SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. THAT SAID...THE
MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK TO KEEP SNOW SOUTH...AND/OR
CHANGE TO A FINER/LOWER RATIO/LOWER ACCUMULATION KIND OF SNOW.
TOUGH CALL HERE.
FOR AMOUNTS...STRONGEST LIFT/HIGHEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI...AND SO WILL BE THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. SOME WARM
AIR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF SLEET
AT TIMES...BUT EXPECT THIS WILL STAY SOUTH. LOOKING AT 3 TO 6 FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME...MOST FALLING BETWEEN 06-
12Z. CONSALL SUGGESTING HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...AND GAVE SOME CONSIDERATIONS TO EXTENDING THE WARNING INTO
NORTHEAST IA. CONS LOOKS A BIT HIGH IN QPF SO OPTED TO NOT AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING IS STRONGEST
HERE...AND WITH A MOSTLY WEST-EAST ORIENTATED BOUNDARY...MAKES THIS
LOCATION FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH THERE
ARE THOSE DRY AIR ISSUES BEING A LIMITING FACTOR. ALSO GAVE SOME
CONSIDERATION TO EXPANDING AN ADV INTO VERNON COUNTY...BUT HELD OFF
FOR THE MOMENT. THIS TOO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
HEADLINES HOLD WITH PREVIOUS CONFIGURATION WITH ONE CHANGE TO A
START TIME OF 03Z. MADE ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST EXPECTED ONSET
TIME AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
EXPECTED WINDS AREN/T THAT HIGH...AND DOESN/T LOOK LIKE SNOW RATIOS
EQUATE TO A SNOW THAT WILL BE EASILY MOVED. SO...IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH RIDGING SLATED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
FLOW COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ONLY SHOWING
AGREEMENT ON FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD
SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI...BRINGING AN AREA OF SNOW TO
THE REGION FOR MOSTLY THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
NORTHWEST FLOW A LOFT SETS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...USHERING IN SOME COLD AIR TO KICK OF MARCH. 850 MB TEMPS
TUMBLE TO -14 C TUE NIGHT...HOVERING AROUND -10 C INTO FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD/GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SINGLE DIGITS LOOK GOOD
FOR MANY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH ZERO.
BY THE WEEKEND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...PROMISING
A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
WARMING COMPARED TO THE GFS...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO THE GFS. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH THIS FAR OUT FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LATE THIS EVENING INDICATES THE TWO SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS HAVE YET TO MERGE. THE LEAD WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE SECOND WAVE WAS COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA. THIS ESSENTIALLY HAS ALLOWED THE TWO AREAS OF SNOW
TO REMAIN SEPARATED WITH THE EAST/WEST BAND NORTH OF THE LOW IN
THE FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS. THE OTHER AREA
AHEAD OF THE SECOND WAVE WAS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE SEPARATE
PRECIPITATION AREAS AND TAKES THE EAST/WEST BAND OFF TO THE EAST
WITHOUT IT GETTING TO THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE AREA COMING IN
FROM THE WEST NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH AIRPORTS.
CONDITIONS GO DOWN TO IFR WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW AND WILL SHOW
THIS AS PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KRST AND IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KLSE. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE VISIBILITY GOING BACK UP TO VFR WHILE THE CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. IT SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES
WITH VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ054-055.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ061.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
755 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FOR POP
AND WX FORECASTS...TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY. CURRENTLY SEEING A SUBSEVERE LINE MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH A FEW 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS BEING RECORDED.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...CELLS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WILL INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY
CATCH UP TO THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS AREA BY
MIDMORNING. DO BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT
SHOWS STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND MID DAY. GENERAL THINKING IS TO DISCOUNT THE
NAM...DO THINK STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NW WINDS BEING SEEN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE IS FCST TO CONT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO INDC A SERIES OF WEAK UPR LVL
IMPULSES WL AFFECT THE FA ABT EVERY 36 TO 48 HRS.
THE PD WL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYS PASSING QUICKLY N
OF AR ON THU. THIS SYS WL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS TODAY/S STORM
SYS...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING CDFNT
THRU AR. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FNT...SO ANY SVR WX IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE FA.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE REGION FOR FRI/FRI NGT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYS WL BRING A DRY FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR BY SAT...FOLLOWED
BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO
MODIFY ON SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD AND SLY WINDS RETURN. RAIN
CHCS WL AGAIN RETURN BY MON AS A NEW STORM SYS APCHS FM THE NW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 31 55 45 / 90 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 68 37 63 47 / 90 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 54 30 57 43 / 90 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 36 60 46 / 90 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 36 59 46 / 90 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 70 37 61 47 / 80 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 34 61 42 / 90 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 30 56 43 / 90 0 0 30
NEWPORT AR 61 31 54 45 / 90 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 67 37 58 45 / 90 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 33 60 42 / 90 0 0 30
SEARCY AR 67 31 54 42 / 90 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 67 34 56 44 / 90 0 0 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND BRING TIMES OF PRECIP TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
AMTS VARY BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING MINIMAL AMOUNTS
WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE.
FOR TODAY...THE NAM HIGHLIGHTS A WAVE MOVING OVER THE NRN MTNS BUT
SHOWS ALMOST NOTHING WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP WHILE THE GFS AND EC
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF (0.1 INCH) FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES. IF
THE GFS AND EC ARE CORRECT...A QUICK 6 HOURS OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE PICTURE COMPLETELY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SATURATION WITH THE EC/GFS AND RUC WHILE THE NAM/S
SATURATED LAYER IS MUCH THINNER AND THUS...NO PRECIP. WILL LEAVE
SOME SLT CHC POPS IN FORECAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH WILL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE TODAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...ALMOST THE EXACT SAME THING HAPPENS AGAIN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH SOME PRECIP. FAVORED
AREAS IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BE THE NRN MTNS AND FLAT TOPS WITH
AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDAFTERNOON...GIVE OR TAKE. ANOTHER DAY OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLEARING. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CAUSING IT TO FLATTEN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH...ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE ARRIVES ACROSS THE BORDER REGION
BETWEEN CO AND WY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENED WAVE DESCRIBED
PREVIOUSLY WORKING ON THIS MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER REGIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. QPF
OUTPUT UNIMPRESSIVE SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER PAIR OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT...IN
GENERAL...BOTH MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FLOW VEERS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES ASHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD...SPLIT SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY...HOWEVER AS STATED
PREVIOUSLY...MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF MOISTURE IS LOW.
SINCE THE RIDGE WILL EXIST IN SOME FASHION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARRIVING
AHEAD OF THE DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO BEGIN THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE BORDER
REGION BETWEEN CO AND WY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE ELKHEAD...PARK...AND GORE RANGES AND THE
FLAT TOPS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT KVEL...KCAG...KEEO...KHDN OR KSBS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL...HOWEVER...RESULT IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. MEANWHILE...RIDGE LEVEL WINDS
PICK UP DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
928 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN IL AND THIS PRODUCED 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 LAST NIGHT. THE ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A DEFORMATION
BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MOVING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN IA AND FAR NW IL AT MID MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THIS BAND. THIS BAND IS PROGRESSIVE AND
THE HRRR INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE DVN CWA BY NOON.
EVEN THOUGH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
HAVE CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF AREA ALONG HWY 30.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAPID DEMISE OF INTENSITY TO NORTHEAST IA SNOW.
CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BUT LEFT AS IS ALONG
THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW NEAR HWY 20 IN
NORTHEAST IA... AND WITH SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST IL NEXT FEW HRS AS ENERGY RIPPLES UP FROM
SOUTHWEST. RADAR MAY BE BEARING THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP STREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CWA ATTIM .
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
1006 MB SFC LOW WAS POSITIONED NORTH OF QUINCY IL AT 09Z. WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW. LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO BAND OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG/S OF I-80 AND SPOTTY SLEET AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
WHILE LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF STL METRO
SHIFTING EAST. TO OUR NORTHWEST RADAR SHOWS LARGE SWATH OF SNOW
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO FAR
NORTHEAST IA... SOUTHWEST WI AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CALLS TO SHERIFFS OFFICES INDICATE SNOW ACCUMS IN OUR CWA ARE
AROUND 1 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HWY 20 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN
FOUND AT TIMES WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES HERE
AT DVN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
HAVE REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JO DAVIESS AND
STEPHENSON COUNTIES WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... AND
CONTINUE THE ENTIRE ADVISORY (MOSTLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30)
THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHIFTING ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30 THIS
MORNING... ACCOMPANIED BY PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS WHICH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE... WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING FAVORED THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO FROM
HWY 30. SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY... WILL SEE LIKELY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP THIS WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING SHORT WINDOW OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AS
FORCING SYNCS UP WITH MOISTURE. THERMAL PARAMS FAVOR WINTRY MIX
ALONG/S OF I-80 CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING... WITH
ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS MOSTLY MINOR.
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN CWA BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS.
OTHERWISE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS... AND COLDER CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO SLOWLY DROP
IN THE 20S WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY TEENS TO AROUND 20... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS ANOTHER SNOW EVENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL QPF
AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DIFFERENT SNOW TOTALS.
ANOTHER LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY... NORTHWEST H5 FLOW WITH SSE SFC WINDS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER CLIPPER. THIS CLIPPER WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SOUTHERN CLIPPER...BUT DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN AS ANOTHER FGEN BAND SETS UP ON THE
NOSE OF H85 JET FROM GALESBURG SSE INTO IN. THE GFS PEGS THIS AREA
WITH HIGHER QPF THAN ANY OF THE MODELS. THE GFS IS ALSO THE DEEPEST
OF THE SFC LOWS AND THE FURTHEST NORTH. THIS NORTH JOG IS A CHANGE
FROM THE 12Z GEFS MEAN. AT THIS TIME...I BELIEVE THE GFS IS
OVERDONE. PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL FOR QPF. THIS GIVES MOST OF THE
AREA 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AN AREA OF 2 TO 3 ALONG THE ILLINOIS I80
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE NUMBERS TO CHANGE AS MORE OF THE WAVE IS
SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK NEAR 00Z WED. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HWO MENTION OF THE SNOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NW FLOW AND THE RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
IN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIKE THE OTHER SYSTEMS WHERE THE FORECAST SKILL WILL IMPROVE
DRAMATICALLY A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. ONCE THE CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE ALL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN TAKES
OVER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15+ ABOVE NORMAL.
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK... ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN AND IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME IFR THIS AM. CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL EXIST THROUGH 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR TO NORTHWEST OF
DBQ-CID TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
AND REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES AT 15-25 KTS TODAY. LATE TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH BLO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
423 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NW FLOW WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS COMPLETELY MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINING
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW GENERALLY RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY
BE "COOLER" TODAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SLOWLY RETREATING
TO THE EAST. WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...POSSIBLY NEAR 60 DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON MIXING. SHORTWAVE
RIDING AND STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT MIXING COMPLICATING HIGHS AND WINDS. EVEN THEN IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70F EVEN IF CLOUD COVER
LIMITS POTENTIAL. LESS CLOUD COVER AND WE COULD SEE LOCATIONS
APPROACH 80F. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 10F...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...I HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY MODELS
BELOW 700MB. NAM BL TDS ALSO APPEAR OVERDONE AND THIS IS THE ONE
MODEL THAT SHOWS ANY KIND OF ML/MU CAPE. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER CORRELATING WITH THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL FROM NAM/GFS (THOUGH GFS
FAVORS THE NE). I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
PLACE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...BUT AM NOT SOLD. IF NAM SOLUTION PANS
OUT I COULD ACTUALLY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEING FAVORED...AGAIN LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WARM AND DRY FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A HINT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. BY SATURDAY WITH THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTH AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWEST AS A BROADER TROUGH CARVES OUT AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE PRESENTING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE AREAS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
DONE VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY ANYTHING FROM WHAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION GAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 500-1500 FT AGL CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH CURRENT WINDS ALREADY
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT KMCK DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS...AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS VFR PREVAILING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 20-25KT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A DECREASING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION
EASTWARD...BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COLORADO STATE
LINE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS LLJ BUILDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO ALLOW RH VALUES TO
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT MIXING WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS...THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING RFW
RH/WIND CRITERIA FOR THE NECESSARY 3HR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
(PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST). IT COULD BE VERY CLOSE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...SO I DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
931 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND A COMBINATION OF SFC CAP OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND 925 TO 850 MB CAP FURTHER SOUTH...WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 40 PERCENT OVER SW AR TO 20
PERCENT OVER EAST TX. MAY FURTHER LOWER POPS DEPENDING ON TRENDS
BY MIDDAY AS COLD FRONT TO THE WEST BEGINS TO ENTER RED RIVER
VALLEY PORTION OF OUR AREA. LOW LVL CAPPING ALSO MAINTAINING LOW
CLOUD COVER WITH SOME LGT DRIZZLE. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...A COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS IFR/MVFR/VFR AREAWIDE AND SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NORTH
AT THIS TIME...BUT LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH VCTY MENTION FROM 15-21Z.
OUR SFC WINDS ARE AND WILL BE S/SW 10-20KTS...SHIFTING TO NW
15-25KTS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FROPA 17-21Z
FOR OUR TERMINALS FROM W TO E AND N TO S. OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE
BRISK FROM SW 25-50KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET...THEN VEER
TO WEST INTO THE MID LEVELS 30-75KTS INTO LEVEL FLIGHT. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SE OK/SW AR THIS MORNING. DESPITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL REFLECTIVITY VALUES ON RADAR...LATEST MRMS LOOPS HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING VALUES AT THE -20 DEGREE C LEVEL. THIS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING. I EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THERE IS LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION VERSUS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS MUCH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH...SO THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS SE OK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
SRN AR/NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR/E TX. SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND THE CENTER
OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL NICELY TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM DE QUEEN AR TO LUFKIN TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 42 69 53 / 30 0 0 10
MLU 67 42 64 47 / 40 10 0 10
DEQ 62 33 64 46 / 20 0 0 20
TXK 64 39 65 50 / 20 0 0 20
ELD 65 36 65 47 / 30 0 0 10
TYR 67 43 69 55 / 20 0 0 10
GGG 66 40 68 54 / 20 0 0 10
LFK 70 42 70 52 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>111-124-125-136.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...A COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS IFR/MVFR/VFR AREAWIDE AND SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NORTH
AT THIS TIME...BUT LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH VCTY MENTION FROM 15-21Z.
OUR SFC WINDS ARE AND WILL BE S/SW 10-20KTS...SHIFTING TO NW
15-25KTS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG AND RIGHT BEHIND THE FROPA 17-21Z
FOR OUR TERMINALS FROM W TO E AND N TO S. OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE
BRISK FROM SW 25-50KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET...THEN VEER
TO WEST INTO THE MID LEVELS 30-75KTS INTO LEVEL FLIGHT. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SE OK/SW AR THIS MORNING. DESPITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL REFLECTIVITY VALUES ON RADAR...LATEST MRMS LOOPS HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING VALUES AT THE -20 DEGREE C LEVEL. THIS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING. I EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THERE IS LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION VERSUS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS MUCH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH...SO THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS SE OK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
SRN AR/NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR/E TX. SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND THE CENTER
OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL NICELY TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM DE QUEEN AR TO LUFKIN TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 42 69 53 / 40 0 0 10
MLU 72 42 64 47 / 40 10 0 10
DEQ 67 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 20
TXK 69 39 65 50 / 60 0 0 20
ELD 70 36 65 47 / 60 0 0 10
TYR 71 43 69 55 / 30 0 0 10
GGG 71 40 68 54 / 30 0 0 10
LFK 75 42 70 52 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ050-051-059.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.
&&
$$
24/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SE OK/SW AR THIS MORNING. DESPITE STRONG LOW
LEVEL REFLECTIVITY VALUES ON RADAR...LATEST MRMS LOOPS HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING VALUES AT THE -20 DEGREE C LEVEL. THIS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING. I EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THERE IS LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION VERSUS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS MUCH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH...SO THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS SE OK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
SRN AR/NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR/E TX. SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND THE CENTER
OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL NICELY TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.
AFTER SOME DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM DE QUEEN AR TO LUFKIN TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 42 69 53 / 40 0 0 10
MLU 72 42 64 47 / 40 10 0 10
DEQ 67 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 20
TXK 69 39 65 50 / 60 0 0 20
ELD 70 36 65 47 / 60 0 0 10
TYR 71 43 69 55 / 30 0 0 10
GGG 71 40 68 54 / 30 0 0 10
LFK 75 42 70 52 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ050-051-059.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
445 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Main concern today is timing of thunderstorms this morning. Latest
radar is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from
central Missouri southwestward into northeast Oklahoma with an
additional cluster of storms over south central Missouri.
This development is actually picked up pretty well by the latest
runs of the experimental HRRR which shows moving over the southern
two thirds of the CWA today. The storms over south central Missouri
are being forced by strong low level moisture convergence associated
with the low level jet whereas the storms over central Missouri are
along the surface cold front. The rain will quickly end from west to
east later this morning and early this afternoon as the shortwave
trough currently digging over the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska moves
through Missouri and Illinois this afternoon.
We will still reach our highs this morning ahead of the cold front
and then see nearly steady or falling temperatures the rest of the
day.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Tonight and Wednesday still looks dry in the wake of this trough
before the clipper comes down into the area on northwest flow on
Thursday. Path of the surface low promises to bring warmer air
into the area which will keep the precipitation type as mainly
rain with this system. System will exit the area quickly on
Thursday night, so have gone mainly dry with colder temperatures.
Still looks like we will see a warm up over the weekend as upper
pattern gradually becomes more zonal and then southwesterly by early
next week. The ECMWF is showing enough instability over the area by
next Monday to include a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will
go from below normal to above normal over the weekend with the
change in pattern as the ECMWF shows 850mb temps going from 0 to
+10C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 420 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Cold front extending from a surface low near PPQ to just east of
COU will move southeastward through the St Louis metro area around
12Z Tuesday. There was a line of showers and thunderstorms along
this front which will move through the St Louis metro area early
this morning. There will be lighter and more scattered post
frontal showers that may continue to impact UIN and COU as well
early this morning. Post frontal MVFR cigs will advect through the
taf sites later this morning and early this afternoon. The cloud
ceiling should improve to VFR conditions by late this afternoon
or early this evening as surface high pressure builds into the
area behind the cold front. The surface wind will become
northwesterly and strong and gusty after fropa in UIN and COU by
12Z Tuesday and later this morning in the St Louis metro area. The
northwesterly wind will diminish tonight as the surface ridge axis
moves southeastward through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers and storms will move through STL early
this morning around 12Z, with a chance of lighter post frontal
showers until noon. The cloud ceiling will lower into the MVFR
catagory later this morning, then rise back into the VFR catagory
late this afternoon. The sely surface wind will veer around to a
nwly direction by 15Z this morning and become strong and gusty
after fropa. The nwly wind will diminish tonight, becoming light
by early Wednesday morning.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
939 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO NORTH
ALABAMA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A FEW
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY...OR COOL SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DRIER AIRMASS WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
AS OF 3 AM CST...LATEST H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH TO
KANSAS...WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS AND MIGRATES SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TO BE CENTERED OVER OHIO BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...WITH 01/10Z SFC OBS INDICATING
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S ALREADY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BEFORE 01/15Z TO THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE RIVER BY LATE MORNING. WHILE DECENT
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...ALONG WITH A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT TO THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTING IN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. GUIDANCE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
POTENTIAL BEST CAPE VALUES REALIZED BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG ARE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS NEAREST THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LAPSE RATE VALUES
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 C/KM. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BETTER ORGANIZE AS IT COMES INTO THIS
REGION OF BETTER INSTABILITY. THUS THESE WILL BE THE LOCATIONS
MOST PRONE TO ANY STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETIRE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 50S BEFORE WARMING ON THURSDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH SFC WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY AS THE SFC HIGH RELOCATES EAST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. SPRING LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MARCH SHOWERS.
ZDM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
SHRA / ISOLATED TSRA WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN AR... A LITTLE AHEAD
OF EARLIER FORECASTS AND THE 06Z NAM. 10Z HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING. LINGERING SHRA WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
LEADING SHRA/TSRA LINE THROUGH MIDDAY. REGENERATION OF TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUP AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR 12Z TAFS... HAVE BROUGHT FORWARD THE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AND
TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
UPSTREAM.
CLEAR WITH DECREASING NW WINDS FOR THIS EVENING/S ARRIVAL PUSH AT
MEM. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
544 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3 AM CST...LATEST H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH TO KANSAS...WITH
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH... TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS AND MIGRATES SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TO BE CENTERED OVER OHIO BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...WITH 01/10Z SFC OBS INDICATING
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S ALREADY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN BEFORE 01/15Z TO THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE RIVER BY LATE MORNING. WHILE DECENT
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...ALONG WITH A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT TO THE UPPER WAVE
RESULTING IN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. GUIDANCE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
POTENTIAL BEST CAPE VALUES REALIZED BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG ARE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS NEAREST THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LAPSE RATE VALUES
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 C/KM. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BETTER ORGANIZE AS IT COMES INTO THIS
REGION OF BETTER INSTABILITY. THUS THESE WILL BE THE LOCATIONS
MOST PRONE TO ANY STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETIRE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 50S BEFORE WARMING ON THURSDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH SFC WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY AS THE SFC HIGH RELOCATES EAST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. SPRING LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MARCH SHOWERS.
ZDM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
SHRA / ISOLATED TSRA WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN AR... A LITTLE AHEAD
OF EARLIER FORECASTS AND THE 06Z NAM. 10Z HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING. LINGERING SHRA WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
LEADING SHRA/TSRA LINE THROUGH MIDDAY. REGENERATION OF TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUP AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR 12Z TAFS... HAVE BROUGHT FORWARD THE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AND
TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
UPSTREAM.
CLEAR WITH DECREASING NW WINDS FOR THIS EVENING/S ARRIVAL PUSH AT
MEM. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
435 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE FROM NW TO SE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH VFR SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PATCHY BR WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH NO
IMPACT AT THE TAF SITES. S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS WILL SHIFT TO N TO NW AT 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KTS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO
7 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN TURN TO THE E AND SE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT USHERS IN
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT STILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP NWP ANALYSIS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING THAT IS HELPING DRIVE A
STORM COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING PLACE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LUBBOCK TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RAPIDLY CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LIFTING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND IN COMBINATION WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BETWEEN 3-6 KFT - UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO COME BY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH...ONLY THE CONVERGENCE
OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO HELP GENERATE A
SHALLOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COASTAL COUNTIES
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND
HAVE PLACED ONLY A SMALL 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEY WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES PER
VERTICAL MIXING PROFILES OF NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 7PM TONIGHT.
WITH CALMING WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE - LOWS
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S
AREAWIDE. A NICE SUNNY WARM-UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE LOW AND UPPER
70S.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
TAKING SHAPE. BEFORE THAT TIME HOWEVER - PLEASANT, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY LATE WEEK...A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HOWEVER, BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO VERTICALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USER IN MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90F DEGREES
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. MORNING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MIX OUT TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EACH AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. LONG RANGE MODEL
AGREEMENT AS SHORED UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
PLACING MORE WEIGHT BEHIND THE SLOWER AND DEEPER AMPLIFIED GFS
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWED
AND DIVERTED OFF FROM ITS PREVIOUS OUTPUT TOWARDS THE GFS/GEFS. A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE TEXAS REGION AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG STORM
RISKS. HAVE KEPT THE HWO CLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE AS IT REMAINS TO
FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE BUT NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEAR A CLOSE WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 48 74 61 82 / 10 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 44 74 58 82 / 10 0 0 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 47 74 59 83 / 10 0 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 43 72 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 49 79 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 44 74 60 79 / - 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 46 75 56 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 46 74 59 82 / 10 0 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 47 73 60 80 / 10 0 0 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 49 74 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 50 76 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
953 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST TUESDAY...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXTENSION OF LEFTOVER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEEING THE FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO TURN MORE SW
AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY ACT TO BRING BACK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON PER LOW CLOUDS OFF TO THE SW ON
LATEST VISIBLE PICS. SINCE TRENDS APPEAR A BIT SLOWER INTO THE DRY
AIR HAVE SLOWED DOWN CLOUDS A LITTLE WITH THE THICKER CANOPY NOT
ARRIVING FROM THE SW UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES
APPEAR IFFY AS WELL BUT GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING A FEW WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR WEST LATE...KEEPING SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THERE. OTRW STILL ON TRACK WITH MORE SUN
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALL AREAS...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO
NE. THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 70 PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY 60S
ELSEWHERE SO EDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST SPOTS.
LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WONT
REALLY MIX DOWN UNTIL THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACH THE WEST
THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH FROM BLF DOWN TO
TNB BEFORE SPEEDS RAMP UP WITH THE SHOWERS AND THEN WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. SINCE SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE FASTER WHEN THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY MOUNTAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
BAND...WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS WEST THIS EVENING. ALSO INCLUDING A
BIT MORE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE LEADING LINE NATURE OF
THE SHALLOW CONVECTION OFF THE HRRR. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK
QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL SO WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE TO
SEE IF SOME LOCATIONS ESPCLY THE NC MOUNTAINS NEED TO GO INTO
WARNING STATUS WITH PERHAPS SOME EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATER.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EST TUESDAY...
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE POSTED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO INCLUDE
ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AN ABOVE NORMAL STANCE...
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY IS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A 996MB
SURFACE LOW PROGGED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT... SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATING A SWATH OF MOISTURE
PRODUCING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS VARY A BIT ON JUST HOW FAST TO EDGE THE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST PER TIMING OF THE PASSING SURFACE LOW...BUT AGREE
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE EARLIER THE TIMING THE GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE
LATER THE TIMING THE LESS THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AT THE VERY LEAST LOOKING AT LOW
CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO STORMS WHICH INITIALLY MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS. EVEN WHEN
THE STORMS FADE IN INTENSITY...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ITS
OWN SURGE OF WIND...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN 6-12 HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PEAK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER
ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SUGGESTING ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL HAVE CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS...ANY ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL BEHIND THE FRONT...
READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
FOLLOWING A WINDY AND GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND REDUCING THE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MOUNTAINS CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL HAVE THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER THE MID WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THROWING A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE.
WITH MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES NORTH OF I64 THURSDAY MORNING.
00Z GFS/ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS NORTHERN
STREAM LOW COMING ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS A NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...DEVELOPING THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SINCE THE NAM WAS A STRONG OUTLIER...IT WAS NOT
USED IN THIS FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS/ECM HAS THE REGION SATURATED AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILL COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING
WILL START FALLING INTO SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING GOING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WE HAVE
LOWERED THURSDAY HIGHS UNDER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 30S WEST AND IN THE
40S EAST. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY EVEN IF MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS ALL SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A WARM GROUND AND MODEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SNOW SHOULD START ACCUMULATING AFTER 400 PM AS WE START
TO LOSE HEATING AND THE SECONDARY LOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO PULL MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...REDUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A
CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING...WILL KEEP
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. IF SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TOTALS COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES WEST...4
INCHES ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST MONDAY...
SFC LOW MOVES UP AND OFF THE COAST WITH SOME WEAK WRAP-AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS IN MTNS FRIDAY...BUT THIS ENDS QUICKLY AS YET
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SYSTEM IS POISED TO TRACK DOWN FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVE ACROSS APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER AND TRACKING SLIGHT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM...AND WOULD BRING ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO WRN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
IT MOVES INTO IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WHAT THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SO ANY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE CONFINED TO HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
ON WRN SLOPES. RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH GFS STILL SUGGEST ONE LAST WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NW FLOW MAY
SLOW DOWN THIS BUILDING RIDGE UNTIL TUES VS. MONDAY. OVERALL
THOUGH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS WELL...EDGING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z/4PM...
THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS...NO NO
ISSUES WITH CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
TROUGH ENTERING THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL BE AMPLIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY TONIGHT...
THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 8 TO 12 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK MAY EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL STORM WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF SUB- VFR IN RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
WEAK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS...AND A NWLY SFC WIND OF <= 8KTS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
UPDATE...
FORECASTS THROUGH 00Z HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FOR POP
AND WX FORECASTS...TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
55
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY. CURRENTLY SEEING A SUBSEVERE LINE MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH A FEW 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS BEING RECORDED.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...CELLS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE WILL INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY
CATCH UP TO THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARKANSAS AREA BY
MIDMORNING. DO BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT
SHOWS STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND MID DAY. GENERAL THINKING IS TO DISCOUNT THE
NAM...DO THINK STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NW WINDS BEING SEEN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO
THE STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE IS FCST TO CONT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO INDC A SERIES OF WEAK UPR LVL
IMPULSES WL AFFECT THE FA ABT EVERY 36 TO 48 HRS.
THE PD WL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYS PASSING QUICKLY N
OF AR ON THU. THIS SYS WL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS TODAY/S STORM
SYS...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING CDFNT
THRU AR. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FNT...SO ANY SVR WX IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE FA.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE REGION FOR FRI/FRI NGT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYS WL BRING A DRY FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR BY SAT...FOLLOWED
BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO
MODIFY ON SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD AND SLY WINDS RETURN. RAIN
CHCS WL AGAIN RETURN BY MON AS A NEW STORM SYS APCHS FM THE NW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 31 55 45 / 90 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 68 37 63 47 / 90 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 54 30 57 43 / 90 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 36 60 46 / 90 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 36 59 46 / 90 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 70 37 61 47 / 80 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 34 61 42 / 90 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 30 56 43 / 90 0 0 30
NEWPORT AR 61 31 54 45 / 90 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 67 37 58 45 / 90 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 33 60 42 / 90 0 0 30
SEARCY AR 67 31 54 42 / 90 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 67 34 56 44 / 90 0 0 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1027 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND BRING TIMES OF PRECIP TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
AMTS VARY BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING MINIMAL AMOUNTS
WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE.
FOR TODAY...THE NAM HIGHLIGHTS A WAVE MOVING OVER THE NRN MTNS BUT
SHOWS ALMOST NOTHING WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP WHILE THE GFS AND EC
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF (0.1 INCH) FOR THE PARK AND GORE RANGES. IF
THE GFS AND EC ARE CORRECT...A QUICK 6 HOURS OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE PICTURE COMPLETELY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SATURATION WITH THE EC/GFS AND RUC WHILE THE NAM/S
SATURATED LAYER IS MUCH THINNER AND THUS...NO PRECIP. WILL LEAVE
SOME SLT CHC POPS IN FORECAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH WILL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE TODAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...ALMOST THE EXACT SAME THING HAPPENS AGAIN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH SOME PRECIP. FAVORED
AREAS IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BE THE NRN MTNS AND FLAT TOPS WITH
AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDAFTERNOON...GIVE OR TAKE. ANOTHER DAY OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLEARING. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CAUSING IT TO FLATTEN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH...ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE ARRIVES ACROSS THE BORDER REGION
BETWEEN CO AND WY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENED WAVE DESCRIBED
PREVIOUSLY WORKING ON THIS MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER REGIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. QPF
OUTPUT UNIMPRESSIVE SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER PAIR OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT...IN
GENERAL...BOTH MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. FLOW VEERS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES ASHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD...SPLIT SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY...HOWEVER AS STATED
PREVIOUSLY...MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF MOISTURE IS LOW.
SINCE THE RIDGE WILL EXIST IN SOME FASHION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARRIVING
AHEAD OF THE DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO BEGIN THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN CO
AND WY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
DURING THE DAY. CIGS MAY DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE AND
KEGE AND POSSIBLY KRIL AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES. IN ADDITION...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE ELKHEAD...PARK...AND GORE RANGES AND THE
FLAT TOPS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED AT KVEL...KCAG...KEEO...KHDN OR KSBS. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL...HOWEVER...RESULT IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LEA OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
607 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
01/23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND ARCHING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS
MEAGER AT BEST SO DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE FAIRLY LOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND ITS ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTS WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY 25-35 MILE WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. 30-40 PERCENT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT THE
VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE POST- FRONTAL RAIN
BAND WILL BE DISSIPATING AT IT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST. A 30-40
PERCENT POP REGIME LOOKS REASONABLE FOR MOST ZONES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS LOW...BUT THE LATEST RAP INSTABILITY PROGS
DO SHOW A SLIVER OF INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A RUMBLE OR TWO GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE CORRIDOR
FROM MILLEN-ALLENDALE TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST LOOKS
REASONABLE... ALTHOUGH HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ATYPICAL GIVEN
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE 40-45 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* NARROWED AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS PER LATEST
H3R/RAP OUTPUT.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMER CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING TO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARAMETERS REMAIN OVERALL UNIMPRESSIVE. LEFT
BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND CLEARING SKIES. DESPITE
THE COLD FRONT`S BEST EFFORTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S...APPROACHING 70 NEAREST THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER TERMINUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S NEAREST THE COAST AND
UPPER 30S INLAND. VERY LIGHT WINDS INLAND...POTENTIALLY CALM...AND
SMALL SCALE VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT COULD POTENTIALLY
LEAD TO PATCHES OF FROST AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
PROPER CONDITIONS DO MATERIALIZE...SUSPECT THAT ZONES NEEDING AN
ADVISORY WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON AT THE SURFACE BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT
TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S IN OUR SOUTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50
NEAR THE COAST.
A QUICK CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
STEADILY DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID 60S FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE A ABOUT A 2 HOURS WINDOW EITHER SIDE OF
11Z FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER PARAMETER IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
DISSIPATE OR ONLY REDUCE VSBYS NO LOWER THAN 6SM AT WORST IN ANY
LIGHT RAIN THAT COULD FALL. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 04Z UNTIL FROPA AROUND 11Z.
WINDS AT 1500-2000 FT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITIES OF BRIEF CEILING
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS LOW-
LEVEL JETTING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MIXING PROFILES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL...EXCEPT OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS WERE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...MAX WINDS LOOK TO AVERAGE 15 KT OR SO WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD...2-5 FT FROM EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH WITH 4-6 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEGS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE TWO ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN ZONES 350/374 WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
BRIEF WINDOW OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS
FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN IL AND THIS PRODUCED 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 LAST NIGHT. THE ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A DEFORMATION
BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MOVING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN IA AND FAR NW IL AT MID MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THIS BAND. THIS BAND IS PROGRESSIVE AND
THE HRRR INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE DVN CWA BY NOON.
EVEN THOUGH THE FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
HAVE CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF AREA ALONG HWY 30.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAPID DEMISE OF INTENSITY TO NORTHEAST IA SNOW.
CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BUT LEFT AS IS ALONG
THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW NEAR HWY 20 IN
NORTHEAST IA... AND WITH SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST IL NEXT FEW HRS AS ENERGY RIPPLES UP FROM
SOUTHWEST. RADAR MAY BE BEARING THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP STREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CWA ATTIM .
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
1006 MB SFC LOW WAS POSITIONED NORTH OF QUINCY IL AT 09Z. WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW. LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION LEADING TO BAND OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG/S OF I-80 AND SPOTTY SLEET AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
WHILE LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF STL METRO
SHIFTING EAST. TO OUR NORTHWEST RADAR SHOWS LARGE SWATH OF SNOW
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO FAR
NORTHEAST IA... SOUTHWEST WI AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CALLS TO SHERIFFS OFFICES INDICATE SNOW ACCUMS IN OUR CWA ARE
AROUND 1 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HWY 20 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN
FOUND AT TIMES WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES HERE
AT DVN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
HAVE REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JO DAVIESS AND
STEPHENSON COUNTIES WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... AND
CONTINUE THE ENTIRE ADVISORY (MOSTLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30)
THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHIFTING ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30 THIS
MORNING... ACCOMPANIED BY PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS WHICH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE... WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING FAVORED THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO FROM
HWY 30. SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY... WILL SEE LIKELY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP THIS WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDDAY POSSIBLY BECOMING SHORT WINDOW OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AS
FORCING SYNCS UP WITH MOISTURE. THERMAL PARAMS FAVOR WINTRY MIX
ALONG/S OF I-80 CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING... WITH
ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS MOSTLY MINOR.
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN CWA BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS.
OTHERWISE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS... AND COLDER CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO SLOWLY DROP
IN THE 20S WITH STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY TEENS TO AROUND 20... WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS ANOTHER SNOW EVENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL QPF
AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DIFFERENT SNOW TOTALS.
ANOTHER LOW END ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY... NORTHWEST H5 FLOW WITH SSE SFC WINDS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER CLIPPER. THIS CLIPPER WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SOUTHERN CLIPPER...BUT DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN AS ANOTHER FGEN BAND SETS UP ON THE
NOSE OF H85 JET FROM GALESBURG SSE INTO IN. THE GFS PEGS THIS AREA
WITH HIGHER QPF THAN ANY OF THE MODELS. THE GFS IS ALSO THE DEEPEST
OF THE SFC LOWS AND THE FURTHEST NORTH. THIS NORTH JOG IS A CHANGE
FROM THE 12Z GEFS MEAN. AT THIS TIME...I BELIEVE THE GFS IS
OVERDONE. PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL FOR QPF. THIS GIVES MOST OF THE
AREA 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AN AREA OF 2 TO 3 ALONG THE ILLINOIS I80
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE NUMBERS TO CHANGE AS MORE OF THE WAVE IS
SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK NEAR 00Z WED. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO
WITH HWO MENTION OF THE SNOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NW FLOW AND THE RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
IN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIKE THE OTHER SYSTEMS WHERE THE FORECAST SKILL WILL IMPROVE
DRAMATICALLY A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. ONCE THE CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE ALL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN TAKES
OVER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15+ ABOVE NORMAL.
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK... ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN AND IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
REMAINING VFR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
139 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NW FLOW WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS COMPLETELY MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINING
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW GENERALLY RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY
BE "COOLER" TODAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SLOWLY RETREATING
TO THE EAST. WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...POSSIBLY NEAR 60 DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON MIXING. SHORTWAVE
RIDING AND STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT MIXING COMPLICATING HIGHS AND WINDS. EVEN THEN IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70F EVEN IF CLOUD COVER
LIMITS POTENTIAL. LESS CLOUD COVER AND WE COULD SEE LOCATIONS
APPROACH 80F. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 10F...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...I HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY MODELS
BELOW 700MB. NAM BL TDS ALSO APPEAR OVERDONE AND THIS IS THE ONE
MODEL THAT SHOWS ANY KIND OF ML/MU CAPE. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER CORRELATING WITH THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL FROM NAM/GFS (THOUGH GFS
FAVORS THE NE). I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
PLACE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...BUT AM NOT SOLD. IF NAM SOLUTION PANS
OUT I COULD ACTUALLY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEING FAVORED...AGAIN LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
REMAIN DRY WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIPITATION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL SEE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. DEW POINTS APPEAR TO STAY HIGH
ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY BUT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRESENTS PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE FOUR CORNERS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY
APPEARS TO MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE PLAINS GETTING
DRY SLOTTED. HOWEVER ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING. COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE
LACKING SO AS IT LOOKS NOW THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD
BE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR BOTH SITES
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 19
TO 23 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KGLD. AT THAT TIME
SUSTAINED WIND WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 23 KNOTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NW FLOW WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS COMPLETELY MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINING
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW GENERALLY RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY
BE "COOLER" TODAY DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SLOWLY RETREATING
TO THE EAST. WE WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...POSSIBLY NEAR 60 DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON MIXING. SHORTWAVE
RIDING AND STRONGER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT MIXING COMPLICATING HIGHS AND WINDS. EVEN THEN IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70F EVEN IF CLOUD COVER
LIMITS POTENTIAL. LESS CLOUD COVER AND WE COULD SEE LOCATIONS
APPROACH 80F. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER 10F...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...I HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY MODELS
BELOW 700MB. NAM BL TDS ALSO APPEAR OVERDONE AND THIS IS THE ONE
MODEL THAT SHOWS ANY KIND OF ML/MU CAPE. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER CORRELATING WITH THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL FROM NAM/GFS (THOUGH GFS
FAVORS THE NE). I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
PLACE FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE...BUT AM NOT SOLD. IF NAM SOLUTION PANS
OUT I COULD ACTUALLY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS BEING FAVORED...AGAIN LOW
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WARM AND DRY FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A HINT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. BY SATURDAY WITH THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTH AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION STRENGTHENS AND TURNS
SOUTHWEST AS A BROADER TROUGH CARVES OUT AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE PRESENTING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE AREAS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
DONE VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY ANYTHING FROM WHAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION GAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR BOTH SITES
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 19
TO 23 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KGLD. AT THAT TIME
SUSTAINED WIND WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 23 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS LLJ BUILDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO ALLOW RH VALUES TO
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT MIXING WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS...THUS LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING RFW
RH/WIND CRITERIA FOR THE NECESSARY 3HR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
(PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST). IT COULD BE VERY CLOSE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...SO I DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
500 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE FRONT JUST ENTERING N VERNON/RAPIDES
NOW...AFFECTING THE AEX TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THUS...EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR VRB20G35KT & MVFR TO IFR VSBY
CEILING WITH TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VCSH TO
DEAL WITH THE NEXT 3 HOURS UNTIL FROPA...AS THE STRONGEST STORMS
LIKELY TO STAY NE OF AREA AFTER CLEARING C LA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY A WIND DIRECTIONAL FORECAST THRU TUE
AFTERNOON.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND THROUGH EAST TEXAS. FEATURE ADVANCING
SOUTH AT AROUND 20 MPH. RADAR AT THIS TIME SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG FRONT. EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGS FRONT TO A JASPER TO AEX LINE AROUND 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR MOVING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND INTO THE NEAR GULF WATERS TOWARD MID-EVENING. WILL BE
MAINTAINING LOW END RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THEN RETURNS WEDNESDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME AGAIN TO
APPEAR LIMITED AS CAPPING HOLDS AND MOISTURE RETURN
MEAGER. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE THE NORM.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A ROBUST SYSTEM INCOMING IN A
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME OF THE NEW WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
MARINE...A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS EVENING. A
MODERATE BUT BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL AGAIN TREND SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BECOMING OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 46 69 51 75 / 10 0 10 30
LCH 52 70 56 76 / 20 0 10 20
LFT 51 69 53 75 / 20 0 0 20
BPT 52 70 57 77 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
319 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND THROUGH EAST TEXAS. FEATURE ADVANCING
SOUTH AT AROUND 20 MPH. RADAR AT THIS TIME SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG FRONT. EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGS FRONT TO A JASPER TO AEX LINE AROUND 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR MOVING FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND INTO THE NEAR GULF WATERS TOWARD MID-EVENING. WILL BE
MAINTAINING LOW END RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THEN RETURNS WEDNESDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME AGAIN TO
APPEAR LIMITED AS CAPPING HOLDS AND MOISTURE RETURN
MEAGER. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE THE NORM.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A ROBUST SYSTEM INCOMING IN A
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME OF THE NEW WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS EVENING. A
MODERATE BUT BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL AGAIN TREND SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BECOMING OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 46 69 51 75 / 10 0 10 30
LCH 52 70 56 76 / 20 0 10 20
LFT 51 69 53 75 / 20 0 0 20
BPT 52 70 57 77 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
547 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 550PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES TO THIS
EVENINGS RAINFALL AND UPDATED TEMPS WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE. THE UPDATE IN TEMPERATURES DID ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT
LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS
AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN
EARLIER PROGGED...ACRS NRN OH AND LAKE ERIE. WITH THE SFC LOW
DEEPENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LVL JET AND
MIXING AFT FROPA...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 50 MPH.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD
ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. NR TERM GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WED MRNG...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AS THE UPR TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY
RGN THU...AS ANOTHER ADVANCES ACRS THE LWR GREAT LAKES THU NGT.
MDLS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF AND SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS SEEMED THE
MOST REASONABLE ATTM AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED... RESULTING IN A LGT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST LATER THU AND THU NGT...THOUGH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ESP S OF
PIT.
SNOW CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING THE
LATEST SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...SO THE SUPERBLEND WAS HEAVILY
USED TO FLESH OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WL GENERATE GUSTY SE TO S WIND TODAY AS IT
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE LOW DRAWS NEAR AND MIXING IMPROVES THIS AFTN.
RAPID CONDITION DEGRADATION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN/EVE
AS SHWRS DVLP WITH THE ADVN OF THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
LCL IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS IS CONFIDENTLY FORECAST.
LLVL AND/OR SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS
THE CROSSING LOW DRAGS A CDFNT ACRS THE IMMEDIATE AREA SHORTLY
AFTR NIGHTFALL. SNOW SHWRS WITH LCL IFR AND MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND SCT SNOW SHWRS WL CONT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW. ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY
TO BRING MORE DEGRADATIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>511.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CROSSING LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPD TO ADVANCE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND LWR GREAT
LAKES RGN TONIGHT SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. PRESSURE FALLS
AND MDL TRENDS INDICATE A FURTHER NWD TRACK TO THE LOW THAN
EARLIER PROGGED...ACRS NRN OH AND LAKE ERIE. LIMITED INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM WITH FROPA THIS EVE. WITH
THE SFC LOW DEEPENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW LVL
JET AND MIXING AFT FROPA...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACRS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 50 MPH.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD
ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
VRY LIMITED LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS PSBL. NR TERM GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRRR AND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WED MRNG...AND WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH...AS THE UPR TROF EXITS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY
RGN THU...AS ANOTHER ADVANCES ACRS THE LWR GREAT LAKES THU NGT.
MDLS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF AND SUPERBLEND SOLUTIONS SEEMED THE
MOST REASONABLE ATTM AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED... RESULTING IN A LGT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST LATER THU AND THU NGT...THOUGH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN ESP S OF
PIT.
SNOW CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED USING THE
LATEST SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
PATTERN SHIFT LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...SO THE SUPERBLEND WAS HEAVILY
USED TO FLESH OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING LOW PRES WL GENERATE GUSTY SE TO S WIND TODAY AS IT
MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SFC GUSTS ARND 25 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE LOW DRAWS NEAR AND MIXING IMPROVES THIS AFTN.
RAPID CONDITION DEGRADATION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN/EVE
AS SHWRS DVLP WITH THE ADVN OF THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
LCL IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS IS CONFIDENTLY FORECAST.
LLVL AND/OR SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS
THE CROSSING LOW DRAGS A CDFNT ACRS THE IMMEDIATE AREA SHORTLY
AFTR NIGHTFALL. SNOW SHWRS WITH LCL IFR AND MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND SCT SNOW SHWRS WL CONT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW. ANOTHER LOW IS LIKELY
TO BRING MORE DEGRADATIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE NRN LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT LOW OVER NE
CANADA. A LARGE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM WI INTO
IL AND LOW PRES OVER ERN IL REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. NW
FLOW LES INTO THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C
WAS LIMITED BY INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 4K FT AND VERY DRY AIR
UPSTREAM FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SHORTER FETCH INTO WRN UPPER
MI...MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED.
TONIGHT...A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO
BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NRLY AND LAND
BREEZES DEVELOPING...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE...FOCUSING THE HEAVIER LES INTO
ALGER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR MODERATE LES...INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM 4K-5K FT AND
DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT INTENSITY. WITH THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...HIGH SLR VALUES AROUND 25/1 MAY LEAD TO FLUFFY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. OVER THE WEST...WHERE
ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...THE SHORTER FETCH AND
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE WILL MINIMIZE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WED...HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONV INTO ALGER COUNTY WHERE
ADDITIONAL ACUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
HEATING MAY HELP TO GENERATE MORE DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER
CNTRL UPPER MI WITH STEEPENING 1000-800 MB LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE 500MB LOW ROTATING
ACROSS JAMES BAY AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN -15 AND -17C THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS /ESPECIALLY AT THE SFC/...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LES WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...ASSISTED
BY STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT. A MESO LOW IS PROGGED BY THE NAM/HI-RESWRF
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-E LAKE SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW POTENITAL TO BE ENHANCED MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT MAY SEE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
TIP OF THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANCE ROTAING THROUGH THE MAIN 500MB LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STATES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY. WHILE FCST MODELS ARE
CONSISTANT WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM FAR S ALBERTA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND DOWN THROUGH E CO AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH BECOMES A BIT MORE WASHED OUT/WEAKENS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS WI/IL/IN BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE NEXT
AGRESSIVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NW. THE
MAIN RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WAA...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ON AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -8C.
THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB GETS STUCK UP IN N CANADA...AND
THE NEXT DEEPENING LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND ACROSS AK ALLOWS
FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OF WARM AIR TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE N PLAINS.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING FROM THE N
CANADAIN LOW. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY. THE DEEP
SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK ACROSS ONTARIO...EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB W-SW WINDS OF 45-
55KTS FROM 18Z SUNDAY-JUST PAST 00Z MONDAY...WHILE 850MB TEMPS RISE
TO A CWA AVERAGE OF 4C.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE TO REBOUND ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY-TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 7C
NEXT TUESDAY...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A 3K-4K FT INVERSION WITH NW FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FAVOR HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. DRY AIR USPTREAM AND A LIMITED FETCH WILL KEEP
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF MVFR CIG.
ANY LES WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY AS THE HEAVIER LES
REMAINS EAST OF MARQUETTE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
AFTER HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC/KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1239 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY AND WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. THE BEST FORCING IS JUST STARTING TO CROSS LAKE MI WHICH WILL
REACH SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
RATES OF THE EVENT AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. MBS AND FNT WILL HAVE
THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE LONGEST DURATION AS THE FORCING SLIDES
ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE DETROIT TERMINAL. FURTHERMORE...AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS MOVING NORTH INTO JACKSON AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE DETROIT TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SN/PL MIX BEFORE BECOMING
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY BACK AROUND FROM
E/NE THROUGH NORTH OVERNIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY
AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUDS AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.
FOR DTW...THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS INCHING SLOWLY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. STILL EXPECTING A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET MIX AS
WARM AIR HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH THROUGH JACKSON. THE WARM LAYER
WILL COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING PRESENTING A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BACKING FROM NE THIS
EVENING TO NW OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
AFTER 06Z.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL SNOW THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM IN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1128 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69
AS 12Z MODELS SO FAR SUPPORT A 8 TO 12 INCH SWATH OF SNOW IN THIS
REGION AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACKS INTO THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES ALREADY EXISTING FGEN FORCING. MORNING RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE THUMB. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-69...THE WARNING INTO THE M-59 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-59. WILL MAINTAIN STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITHIN THE ADVISORY FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WITH STILL A
CHANCE OF SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE HEAVIEST
DEFORMATION SNOW EXPANDS INTO AREA AFTER 4 PM AND PERSISTS INTO
THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 448 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL...THE TREND OF 01.00Z NCEP SUITE WAS ONE OF A MORE SNOWY
SOLUTION FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN
A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPECIFICALLY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED LEAD JET AXIS. THIS RESULTS IN THE NECESSARY
QUICKER TIMING AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZATION TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE SUBTLE FASTER TIMING...THERE IS
GREATER SUPPORT THE PRE-EXISTING BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME PHASED AT THE LARGER SCALE AND BECOME A SURROGATE
DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE DEEPENING LOW. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M 59
CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WARNED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN THUMB. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I 96 FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
THIS MORNING...INITIAL 850-700MB BAND PROTRUDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN HAS DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND IS BEING FORCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT ACTING UPON A VERY TIGHT 850MB
GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. OBSERVATIONS BOTH SURFACE VISIBILITY AND
REFLECTIVITY OF 20-25 DBZ SUGGESTS POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WITHIN
THE BAND AXIS. ACCUMULATING RATES ARE LIKELY IN THE FEW TENTHS PER
HOUR RANGE...PERHAPS A QUICK HALF INCH OR MORE PER HOUR WITH ANY
TEMPORARY STALLING OF THE BAND. THEREFORE...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MUTED HERE THROUGH 12Z WITH REGIONAL
MOSAIC LOOP SUPPORTING THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE BAND. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GREASY ROAD CONDITIONS AND COMPROMISE TRAFFIC
RATES. EXPECTING THE MEAT OF THE BAND TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHERN
DETROIT METRO/SUBURBS OVER THE NEXT COUPLES OF HOUR ...FOCUSING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE. THE 850-700MB FGEN AXIS IS FORECASTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...COASTING INTO THE TRI CITIES WHILE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
THUMB AND THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE BETTER FGEN PROGS GETS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ONE EXPECT INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...HOWEVER...BEST 290K MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADIENT AND
ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW SETS UP DIRECTLY FROM FLINT UP TO
SAGINAW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING AN INCREASING SNOW TEND DURING THE
15 TO 18Z WINDOW IN THE TRI CITIES. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY
REGION/NORTHERN THUMB PRIOR TO 18Z.
THIS AFTERNOON...A FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE WILL BRING A WELL
DEVELOPED/MATURE THETA E RIDGE INTO THE STATE TODAY...ENCAPSULATING
ALL OF THE CWA BETWEEN THE 18-22Z TIMEFRAME. WHAT IS REALLY EXPECTED
TO MAKE THIS EVENT GO IS THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING
THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. MODELS NOW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS INCREASED JET
ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FLANK PV ANOMALY TO TURN TO A
NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE TILT IN TIME TO BRING HIGHEST HEIGHT FALLS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE SUBTLE TIMING/WILL IT OR
WILL IT NOT PHASING...ASPECT OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. X SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING...REMAINING DEEP BUT BECOMING MUCH MORE UPRIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL ASCENT OVER SOUTHEASTER MICHIGAN IS FORECASTED TO
BE OF HIGH QUALITY WITH STRAIGHT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME HEAVY. DIFFICULT TO GAUGE WHAT THE OVERALL SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A HIGH DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND HI RESOLUTION RUNS. WITH THE DEGREE OF UVVS...AND
LIFT SOLIDLY THROUGH THE DGZ...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SNOWFALL RATES
TO REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WORST OF THE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 18-00Z.
GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS PERTAINING TO THIS
SYSTEM...I.E. THE EXCESSIVE FLIP FLOPPING...THERE REMAINS SOME
SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW THE PHASING WILL PLAY OUT.
DEFINITELY SAW ENOUGH IN THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE TO GO MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES...BUT THE INCREDIBLE HIGH
SENSITIVITY TO THE TIMING CAN NOT BE OVERSTATED.
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. ONE AREA TO WATCH FOR WITH A
CONTINUED IMPACT WITH HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING OF SNOW WILL BE IN
THE THUMB...PARTICULARLY AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE HURON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COLD TO BEGIN MARCH
WITH WINDCHILL READINGS RUNNING IN THE TEENS BOTH DAYS.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE FORCE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-
082-083.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SS
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1128 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69
AS 12Z MODELS SO FAR SUPPORT A 8 TO 12 INCH SWATH OF SNOW IN THIS
REGION AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACKS INTO THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES ALREADY EXISTING FGEN FORCING. MORNING RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE THUMB. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-69...THE WARNING INTO THE M-59 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-59. WILL MAINTAIN STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITHIN THE ADVISORY FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WITH STILL A
CHANCE OF SLEET MIXED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE HEAVIEST
DEFORMATION SNOW EXPANDS INTO AREA AFTER 4 PM AND PERSISTS INTO
THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 609 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS
BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND THIS WILL
AFFECT MBS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGING THIS
SNOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS IT DOES...A SECOND ROUND OF
MORE MODERATE SNOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR DTW...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TERMINAL
WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW BEFORE A SECOND ROUND MOVES BACK IN
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES AS
WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE NORTH...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL SNOW THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM IN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 448 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL...THE TREND OF 01.00Z NCEP SUITE WAS ONE OF A MORE SNOWY
SOLUTION FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN
A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPECIFICALLY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED LEAD JET AXIS. THIS RESULTS IN THE NECESSARY
QUICKER TIMING AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZATION TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE SUBTLE FASTER TIMING...THERE IS
GREATER SUPPORT THE PRE-EXISTING BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME PHASED AT THE LARGER SCALE AND BECOME A SURROGATE
DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE DEEPENING LOW. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M 59
CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WARNED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN THUMB. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I 96 FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
THIS MORNING...INITIAL 850-700MB BAND PROTRUDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN HAS DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND IS BEING FORCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT ACTING UPON A VERY TIGHT 850MB
GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. OBSERVATIONS BOTH SURFACE VISIBILITY AND
REFLECTIVITY OF 20-25 DBZ SUGGESTS POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WITHIN
THE BAND AXIS. ACCUMULATING RATES ARE LIKELY IN THE FEW TENTHS PER
HOUR RANGE...PERHAPS A QUICK HALF INCH OR MORE PER HOUR WITH ANY
TEMPORARY STALLING OF THE BAND. THEREFORE...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MUTED HERE THROUGH 12Z WITH REGIONAL
MOSAIC LOOP SUPPORTING THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE BAND. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GREASY ROAD CONDITIONS AND COMPROMISE TRAFFIC
RATES. EXPECTING THE MEAT OF THE BAND TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHERN
DETROIT METRO/SUBURBS OVER THE NEXT COUPLES OF HOUR ...FOCUSING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE. THE 850-700MB FGEN AXIS IS FORECASTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...COASTING INTO THE TRI CITIES WHILE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
THUMB AND THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE BETTER FGEN PROGS GETS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ONE EXPECT INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...HOWEVER...BEST 290K MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADIENT AND
ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW SETS UP DIRECTLY FROM FLINT UP TO
SAGINAW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING AN INCREASING SNOW TEND DURING THE
15 TO 18Z WINDOW IN THE TRI CITIES. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY
REGION/NORTHERN THUMB PRIOR TO 18Z.
THIS AFTERNOON...A FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE WILL BRING A WELL
DEVELOPED/MATURE THETA E RIDGE INTO THE STATE TODAY...ENCAPSULATING
ALL OF THE CWA BETWEEN THE 18-22Z TIMEFRAME. WHAT IS REALLY EXPECTED
TO MAKE THIS EVENT GO IS THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING
THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. MODELS NOW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS INCREASED JET
ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FLANK PV ANOMALY TO TURN TO A
NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE TILT IN TIME TO BRING HIGHEST HEIGHT FALLS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE SUBTLE TIMING/WILL IT OR
WILL IT NOT PHASING...ASPECT OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. X SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING...REMAINING DEEP BUT BECOMING MUCH MORE UPRIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL ASCENT OVER SOUTHEASTER MICHIGAN IS FORECASTED TO
BE OF HIGH QUALITY WITH STRAIGHT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW WILL
LIKELY BECOME HEAVY. DIFFICULT TO GAUGE WHAT THE OVERALL SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A HIGH DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND HI RESOLUTION RUNS. WITH THE DEGREE OF UVVS...AND
LIFT SOLIDLY THROUGH THE DGZ...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SNOWFALL RATES
TO REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WORST OF THE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 18-00Z.
GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS PERTAINING TO THIS
SYSTEM...I.E. THE EXCESSIVE FLIP FLOPPING...THERE REMAINS SOME
SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW THE PHASING WILL PLAY OUT.
DEFINITELY SAW ENOUGH IN THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE TO GO MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES...BUT THE INCREDIBLE HIGH
SENSITIVITY TO THE TIMING CAN NOT BE OVERSTATED.
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. ONE AREA TO WATCH FOR WITH A
CONTINUED IMPACT WITH HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING OF SNOW WILL BE IN
THE THUMB...PARTICULARLY AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE HURON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COLD TO BEGIN MARCH
WITH WINDCHILL READINGS RUNNING IN THE TEENS BOTH DAYS.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE FORCE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-
082-083.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....SS
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SS
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1203 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Main concern today is timing of thunderstorms this morning. Latest
radar is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from
central Missouri southwestward into northeast Oklahoma with an
additional cluster of storms over south central Missouri.
This development is actually picked up pretty well by the latest
runs of the experimental HRRR which shows moving over the southern
two thirds of the CWA today. The storms over south central Missouri
are being forced by strong low level moisture convergence associated
with the low level jet whereas the storms over central Missouri are
along the surface cold front. The rain will quickly end from west to
east later this morning and early this afternoon as the shortwave
trough currently digging over the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska moves
through Missouri and Illinois this afternoon.
We will still reach our highs this morning ahead of the cold front
and then see nearly steady or falling temperatures the rest of the
day.
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
Tonight and Wednesday still looks dry in the wake of this trough
before the clipper comes down into the area on northwest flow on
Thursday. Path of the surface low promises to bring warmer air
into the area which will keep the precipitation type as mainly
rain with this system. System will exit the area quickly on
Thursday night, so have gone mainly dry with colder temperatures.
Still looks like we will see a warm up over the weekend as upper
pattern gradually becomes more zonal and then southwesterly by early
next week. The ECMWF is showing enough instability over the area by
next Monday to include a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will
go from below normal to above normal over the weekend with the
change in pattern as the ECMWF shows 850mb temps going from 0 to
+10C.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2016
MVFR flight conditions with ceilings at or below 2000 ft will
prevail this afternoon. There should be a gradual rise in the
ceilings before they clear late this afternoon into the evening.
Guidance is not handling the clouds very well today...so this is
more of a seat-of-the-pants forecast using upstream observations
over Iowa as the basis. Gusty northwest flow will prevail through
the afternoon...with wind subsiding later this evening/overnight.
After the clouds clear out from northwest to southeast, expect VFR
conditions to prevail for the rest of the TAF period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Expect MVFR ceilings between 1500-2000 ft to prevail this
afternoon. Should see a gradual rise in the clouds this afternoon
before the clouds move out to the southeast early this evening.
Guidance is not handling the height of these clouds very well, so
I`m using upstream observations as a guide. Northwest flow will
prevail through the night, but wind should turn back to the south
Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID-WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...
ALTOCU CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 20-25KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE A BIT BY SUNSET....THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY
TIGHTEN THIS EVENING...SO AT LEAST SPORADIC GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY
BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE. RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE A COUPLE
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND CONVECTION...THOUGH THE BEST FORCING AND BRUNT
OF THE NARROW/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD HIT THE TRIAD AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WITHIN THE LINE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRONG FGEN AND A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE (HIGHEST IN
THE NAM)...WHILE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SHOULD BE COMMON GIVEN A 50-
60KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE LINE SHOULD LOSE A LITTLE STEAM AS IT MOVES
EAST AND THE INITIAL PUNCH OF DCVA LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH...REACHING
THE TRIANGLE BY AROUND 2AM AND EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 5AM
AND 7AM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A QUARTER INCH
OF QPF IN THE CORE OF THE SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SO TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL
PAST SUNRISE BUT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 38-53 RANGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
LEVEL OUT BY LATE MORNING AND RISE A LITTLE INT HE AFTERNOON. A
CONSENSUS OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 46-55 RANGE. WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN THE MORNING...AROUND 20KT...AND WEAKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
HOWEVER...THICKNESSES DIPPING TO NEAR 1290M AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD TIMING CONSENSUS...AND THE
GFS HAS TRENDED ITS MILLER TYPE-B SURFACE EVOLUTION TOWARDS A
STRONGER...SOUTHERLY COASTAL LOW BECOMING DOMINANT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH RESEMBLES THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION AS THE SYSTEM IS
PULLING OFFSHORE BY 12Z.
THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE SETS UP MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LIMITED BY WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GMEX AND GULF STATES. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN AN INCREASING TREND FROM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WHERE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED...TO A LIKELY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE CONCURRENT WITH THE RAPID COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
LAGGING THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MAKE A CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH
ANY SNOW RATHER DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AS THE PRECIP RATES WILL BE
EITHER VERY LIGHT OR MORE LIKELY...ENDING BY THE TIME THE LOWEST
LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH POPS ENDING IN THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO
GRASSY OR OTHER RAISED SURFACES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 50...WITH MINS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
FAST TRANSITIONAL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
A DRY CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT TO REINFORCE
THE COOL AIR OVER THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S.
AS WE MAINTAIN OUR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH ITS AXIS ALIGNED
UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...TO THE LOW AND MID 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS GUSTS TO
15-20KT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASE ALTOCU AOA 7K FT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MOVING UP THROUGH THE
FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT AND A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE INTO TO WESTERN NC AFTER 00Z...REACHING
KGSO/KINT BY 04-06Z...KRDU AROUND 07Z..AND KFAY/KRWI BY 09Z.AHEAD OF
THE LINE...A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI...WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES AND CREATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. WITHIN THE LINE ITSELF...A PERIOD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SHOULD BE COMMON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY BEHIND THE LINE AND CONTINUING TO GUST TO AROUND 20KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND BRINGS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1252 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
REPORTS OF PEA HAIL IN SOME OF THE CORES...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING DUE TO INSUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY. HRRR GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THERE MAY BE A
LULL BETWEEN THIS PREFRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00Z TEMPERATURE GRID THIS EVENING IS VERY TELLING...WITH A 22
DEGREE GRADIENT FROM PORTSMOUTH OHIO TO CELINA OHIO. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP
VERY QUICKLY. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION...OR
PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...CHANCES
FOR SNOW HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CHANGEOVER AS THE RIBBON OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE DEPARTS
THE AREA...BUT THIS IS NOW LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.
AN AREA OF 850MB-700MB DEFORMATION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS HAS ALSO
BEEN FORECAST TO PRODUCE SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS ALSO SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTH WITH THE MOST RECENT
MODEL RUNS. THUS...THE FORECAST FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 COULD
RECEIVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS (TRACE TO A TENTH OR TWO)...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME HIGHER VALUES (UP TO A HALF INCH) IN THE
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE...THESE NUMBERS COULD HAVE TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD EVEN
FURTHER.
AS A FINAL NOTE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WIND
GUSTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION (NORTHWEST FLOW) WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STRONG...UP TO AROUND 30-35 MPH.
A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW COMBINATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
MODEL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO BEEN FURTHER NORTH (AND THUS
WARMER)...LEADING THINGS TOWARD THE RAINIER SIDE OF THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX. WITH GOOD OVERALL TIMING AGREEMENT...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO
60 PERCENT. THE RAIN/SNOW DETAILS (AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS) WILL STILL NEED SOME WORK AS THE EVENT GETS A
LITTLE CLOSER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE
CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM...AS A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL NEED TO BE MODIFIED BY THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. NONETHELESS...UNLESS A MAJOR SHIFT IN
THE FORECAST TRACK OCCURS...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SOME
EARLY LOW LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR
SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
OUR NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW WITH ANY
PCPN INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SHOULD TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR US TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY PCPN
OVER TO RAIN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY IFR
VISIBILITIES. APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THESE LOWER CEILINGS MAY NOT BE SOLID AT LEAST TO START. MAY BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WEST AND GUST UP TO 35 KT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT THAT POINT. LATER IN THE NIGHT CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOME BUT
REMAIN MVFR WHILE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. GUSTS SHOULD END
BEFORE 12Z WHILE CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
403 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
TO THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BECOME DIMMED BY A VEIL OF INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SUNSHINE...AND WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS HAS HELPED TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN...WITH LOWER
60S NOTED AT 18Z THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN PENN.
LOW PRESSURE /1000 MB - OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT
TIMES ON THE RIDGES OF THE LAURELS EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PLUMMETING TEMPS.
STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12 MB WILL FOLLOW THE
SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PENN WITH A SWD TRAILING BAND OF 8-10 MB
RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING BRANCH OF A 120 KT
UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES PROMPTED US TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY - BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAURELS
FOR THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF GUSTY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
LATER ONE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN
MTNS OF THE STATE.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE.
SOME COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO
KEEP THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT
SURGING NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURSDAY AND A
FAST- MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEAK HIGH. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW FILLING
IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC
CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARMER TREND SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY...TO MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...BUT
WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY- EXPECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY IF
THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE NEW/OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT AND ADJUST
LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LAST
NIGHT...IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT.
EARLY AFTERNOON VSBL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS...WITH A
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT THE SOUTH WIND TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20KT RANGE.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS -
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03-05Z WEST...AND 06-08Z ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WED...WINDY. AM RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD/KJST.
THU...PM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
SAT...LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
TO THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BECOME DIMMED BY A VEIL OF INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SUNSHINE...AND WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS HAS HELPED TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN...WITH LOWER
60S NOTED AT 18Z THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN PENN.
LOW PRESSURE /1000 MB - OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT
TIMES ON THE RIDGES OF THE LAURELS EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PLUMMETING TEMPS.
STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12 MB WILL FOLLOW THE
SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PENN WITH A SWD TRAILING BAND OF 8-10 MB
RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING BRANCH OF A 120 KT
UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES PROMPTED US TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY - BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAURELS
FOR THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF GUSTY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
LATER ONE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN
MTNS OF THE STATE.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE.
SOME COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO
KEEP THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT
SURGING NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE
20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL CAUSE SFC WEST TO NW WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON /WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING/. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1022MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY WED NIGHT AND THURS. THE
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURS AND A FAST-MOVING
WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER THE MIDWEST
AND MOVE INTO THE OH VLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE WEAK HIGH.
BUT THE LOW SEEMS TO FILL IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING
OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF
NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE TEMPS DO RISE ABV FZG ON
FRIDAY...BUT WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY-EXPECTED HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE
NEW/OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR THAT AND ADJUST LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE ON
DY7.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LAST
NIGHT...IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT.
EARLY AFTERNOON VSBL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS...WITH A
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT THE SOUTH WIND TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20KT RANGE.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS -
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03-05Z WEST...AND 06-08Z ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WED...WINDY. AM RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD/KJST.
THU...PM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
SAT...LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
TO THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BECOME DIMMED BY A VEIL OF INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SUNSHINE...AND WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS HAS HELPED TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN...WITH LOWER
60S NOTED AT 18Z THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN PENN.
LOW PRESSURE /1000 MB - OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT
TIMES ON THE RIDGES OF THE LAURELS EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PLUMMETING TEMPS.
STRONG 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISE BULLSEYE OF 12 MB WILL FOLLOW THE
SFC LOW ACROSS NWRN PENN WITH A SWD TRAILING BAND OF 8-10 MB
RISES BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT/DESCENDING BRANCH OF A 120 KT
UPPER JET. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES PROMPTED US TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY - BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAURELS
FOR THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF GUSTY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS
LATER ONE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN
MTNS OF THE STATE.
A 20 TO 25 DEG F DROP IS EXPECTED WITHIN JUST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
CFROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH SUNRISE MINS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE U30S IN THE SE.
SOME COMMA HEAD PRECIP MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR NW AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO
KEEP THIS OCCURRENCE QUITE MINIMAL WITH A DISTINCT DRY SLOT
SURGING NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN CO...WITH
A VERY LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES BY
MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF WARREN CO RECEIVING 3+
INCHES OF SNOW IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.
THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DRY UP THE SERN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER THE FRONT ZOOMS BY. IT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE WED. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS AMONGST ALL MDLS - ENDING PRECIP IN THE EAST AROUND 07Z OR
08Z. HAVE LINGERED A CHC POP IN THE FAR ERN COS THRU 12Z...BUT DO
BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SHSN SHOULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS
POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HOLD IN THE 20S AND L30S. THE TEMPS GO ALMOST
NOWHERE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED AS COLD ADVECTION RATHER
EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTS ANY DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND SUNSHINE WHICH
WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1022MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY WED NIGHT AND THURS. THE
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST BY NOON THURS AND A FAST-MOVING
WAVE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MINOR SFC REFLECTION OVER THE MIDWEST
AND MOVE INTO THE OH VLY QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE WEAK HIGH.
BUT THE LOW SEEMS TO FILL IN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND REAPPEARS/DEEPENS FRIDAY MORNING
OFF VA BEACH. THE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND - AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT - AT THE SFC FOR ALL SNOW TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. WHILE NOT A CLASSIC CLIPPER - IT COULD HOLD SLR/S OF
NEARLY 20:1 BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE TEMPS DO RISE ABV FZG ON
FRIDAY...BUT WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH OUR CURRENTLY-EXPECTED HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW/PRECIP LINGER WHILE THE
NEW/OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR THAT AND ADJUST LATER IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LIKELY
FOR THURS PM AND FRI.
FAST W-E FLOW UNDER A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS
SPINNING QUICKLY IN FROM THE WNW - AND A REAL CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPS BELOW FZG
AND SNOW THE MORE-LIKELY OUTCOME...BUT THIS LOW CARRIES LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MSTR WITH IT AFTER A LONG JOURNEY FROM THE PAC NW AND
UP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AFTER THIS WAVE GOES
BY...MDLS PUMP UP THE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE ON
DY7.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LAST
NIGHT...IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT.
EARLY AFTERNOON VSBL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS...WITH A
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT THE SOUTH WIND TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20KT RANGE.
A BELT OF 50-60 KTS SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW KFT AGL WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...CREATING LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN LIGHT TO MDT RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS -
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03-05Z WEST...AND 06-08Z ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN PENN
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS THERE...WHILE SLIGHTLY
LOWER PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR SERN PENN AIRFIELDS. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WED...WINDY. AM RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD/KJST.
THU...PM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
FRI...AM LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
SAT...LGT SNOW POSS...MAINLY KJST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT ALREADY CLEARED KDRT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PUSHES TO THE
EAST. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE FROM NW TO SE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH VFR SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PATCHY BR WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH NO
IMPACT AT THE TAF SITES. S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS WILL SHIFT TO N TO NW AT 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KTS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO
7 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN TURN TO THE E AND SE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT USHERS IN
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT STILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP NWP ANALYSIS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING THAT IS HELPING DRIVE A
STORM COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING PLACE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LUBBOCK TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RAPIDLY CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LIFTING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH AND IN COMBINATION WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BETWEEN 3-6 KFT - UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO COME BY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH...ONLY THE CONVERGENCE
OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO HELP GENERATE A
SHALLOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COASTAL COUNTIES
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND
HAVE PLACED ONLY A SMALL 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEY WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES PER
VERTICAL MIXING PROFILES OF NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 7PM TONIGHT.
WITH CALMING WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE - LOWS
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S
AREAWIDE. A NICE SUNNY WARM-UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE LOW AND UPPER
70S.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS APPEARS TO BE
TAKING SHAPE. BEFORE THAT TIME HOWEVER - PLEASANT, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY LATE WEEK...A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HOWEVER, BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO VERTICALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USER IN MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90F DEGREES
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. MORNING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MIX OUT TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EACH AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. LONG RANGE MODEL
AGREEMENT AS SHORED UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
PLACING MORE WEIGHT BEHIND THE SLOWER AND DEEPER AMPLIFIED GFS
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWED
AND DIVERTED OFF FROM ITS PREVIOUS OUTPUT TOWARDS THE GFS/GEFS. A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE TEXAS REGION AND
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON HEAVY RAIN OR STRONG STORM
RISKS. HAVE KEPT THE HWO CLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE AS IT REMAINS TO
FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE BUT NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEAR A CLOSE WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 48 74 61 82 51 / 0 0 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 74 58 82 47 / 0 0 - 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 47 74 59 83 49 / 0 0 - - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 43 72 58 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 79 56 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 74 60 79 46 / 0 0 - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 75 56 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 46 74 59 82 48 / 0 0 - - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 47 73 60 80 49 / 0 0 - 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 74 60 83 51 / 0 0 0 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 76 59 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1207 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST TUESDAY...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXTENSION OF LEFTOVER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEEING THE FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO TURN MORE SW
AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY ACT TO BRING BACK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON PER LOW CLOUDS OFF TO THE SW ON
LATEST VISIBLE PICS. SINCE TRENDS APPEAR A BIT SLOWER INTO THE DRY
AIR HAVE SLOWED DOWN CLOUDS A LITTLE WITH THE THICKER CANOPY NOT
ARRIVING FROM THE SW UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES
APPEAR IFFY AS WELL BUT GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING A FEW WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAKING INTO THE FAR WEST LATE...KEEPING SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THERE. OTRW STILL ON TRACK WITH MORE SUN
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALL AREAS...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO
NE. THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 70 PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY 60S
ELSEWHERE SO EDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST SPOTS.
LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WONT
REALLY MIX DOWN UNTIL THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACH THE WEST
THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH FROM BLF DOWN TO
TNB BEFORE SPEEDS RAMP UP WITH THE SHOWERS AND THEN WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. SINCE SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE FASTER WHEN THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY MOUNTAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
BAND...WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS WEST THIS EVENING. ALSO INCLUDING A
BIT MORE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE LEADING LINE NATURE OF
THE SHALLOW CONVECTION OFF THE HRRR. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK
QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL SO WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE TO
SEE IF SOME LOCATIONS ESPCLY THE NC MOUNTAINS NEED TO GO INTO
WARNING STATUS WITH PERHAPS SOME EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATER.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 530 AM EST TUESDAY...
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE POSTED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO INCLUDE
ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AN ABOVE NORMAL STANCE...
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY IS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A 996MB
SURFACE LOW PROGGED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT... SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATING A SWATH OF MOISTURE
PRODUCING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS VARY A BIT ON JUST HOW FAST TO EDGE THE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST PER TIMING OF THE PASSING SURFACE LOW...BUT AGREE
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE EARLIER THE TIMING THE GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE
LATER THE TIMING THE LESS THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AT THE VERY LEAST LOOKING AT LOW
CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO STORMS WHICH INITIALLY MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS. EVEN WHEN
THE STORMS FADE IN INTENSITY...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ITS
OWN SURGE OF WIND...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN 6-12 HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PEAK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER
ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SUGGESTING ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL HAVE CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS...ANY ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL BEHIND THE FRONT...
READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
FOLLOWING A WINDY AND GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND REDUCING THE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MOUNTAINS CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL HAVE THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT COUNTIES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER THE MID WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...THROWING A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE.
WITH MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES NORTH OF I64 THURSDAY MORNING.
00Z GFS/ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS NORTHERN
STREAM LOW COMING ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS A NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...DEVELOPING THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SINCE THE NAM WAS A STRONG OUTLIER...IT WAS NOT
USED IN THIS FORECAST.
THE 00Z GFS/ECM HAS THE REGION SATURATED AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILL COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING
WILL START FALLING INTO SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING GOING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WE HAVE
LOWERED THURSDAY HIGHS UNDER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 30S WEST AND IN THE
40S EAST. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY EVEN IF MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS ALL SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A WARM GROUND AND MODEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. SNOW SHOULD START ACCUMULATING AFTER 400 PM AS WE START
TO LOSE HEATING AND THE SECONDARY LOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO PULL MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...REDUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A
CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING...WILL KEEP
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. IF SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TOTALS COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES WEST...4
INCHES ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST MONDAY...
SFC LOW MOVES UP AND OFF THE COAST WITH SOME WEAK WRAP-AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS IN MTNS FRIDAY...BUT THIS ENDS QUICKLY AS YET
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SYSTEM IS POISED TO TRACK DOWN FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVE ACROSS APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER AND TRACKING SLIGHT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM...AND WOULD BRING ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO WRN SLOPES INTO SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
IT MOVES INTO IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WHAT THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SO ANY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE CONFINED TO HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
ON WRN SLOPES. RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH GFS STILL SUGGEST ONE LAST WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NW FLOW MAY
SLOW DOWN THIS BUILDING RIDGE UNTIL TUES VS. MONDAY. OVERALL
THOUGH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS WELL...EDGING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EST TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE SW. STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE WEST WILL THEN DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE
BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A QUICK INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR-IFR LIKELY WITHIN DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE WEST. AS THE FRONT CROSSES...APPEARS A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP
EAST...CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY TONIGHT... THEN
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS EVEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 8 TO 12
HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN
AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES ESPCLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KLWB-KBLF-KTNB CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO SNEAK
OUT TO KBCB EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK MAY EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL STORM WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF SUB- VFR IN RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JH/PM