Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/29/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

1059 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST INTO SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE NORTH BAY
SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS
FAR SOUTH AS OAKLAND. MOSTLY JUST TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP HAVE
BEEN REPORTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
DID OCCUR AT BODEGA BAY AND POINT REYES ON THE NORTH BAY COAST.
IT`S UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR AND GFS MODELS INDICATE NO
MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS
NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH IN THE NORTH BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND
RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY...DRY AND MILD DAY. THE SAME CAN BE SAID
FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION. ON MONDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S IN MOST AREAS.

AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY...THE MODELS AGREED THAT DRY WEATHER
WOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...TUESDAY WAS EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE RIDGE MOVING
WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF OFFERS THE WETTEST SOLUTION...WITH LIGHT
RAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA. THE 00Z GFS HAS
TRENDED A BIT WETTER...AND CLIPS THE NORTH BAY WITH RAIN LATE
TUESDAY. BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN
THE NORTH BY LATE TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN MOST
AREAS AS WELL.

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY TRENDING IN AN ENCOURAGING
DIRECTION...ALL SHOWING A CHANGE TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. A SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA SOMEWHERE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM THEN
FORECAST TO ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY MARCH 6.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:58 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
CIGS/VSBYS FORECASTS HINGE ON WEAK COLD FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. INLAND CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH AREAS IFR CIGS REPORTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

06Z TAFS ARE MOSTLY PERSISTENCE IN THE NEAREST TERM HOWEVER LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST GOING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TIME-FRAME DUE TO INCREASED DEWPOINT TEMPS /WATER VAPOR/
NEAR SURFACE WHILE LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE REMAINED ON THE
WEAK SIDE. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL REMAIN A FACTOR
OVERNIGHT... QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MORE COVERAGE WILL THERE BE?

THE 00Z NAM MODEL FORECASTS DRYING AT THE 925 MB LEVEL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR DRYING OVERLAPPING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CONTINUED MAINLY WEAK LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SATURDAY THUS MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR TO VFR FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...AREAS IFR CIGS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE
REGARDING CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR
LIKELY RETURNING BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

.BEACHES...AS OF 9:40 PM PST FRIDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY. ENERGETIC SWELL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AT DEEP WATER BREAKS AND ASSOCIATED STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WAVES WASHING UNSUSPECTING BEACH VISITORS INTO THE
SEA.

.MARINE...AS OF 9:43 PM PST FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A MODERATE SWELL WITH A LONG
PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

902 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:35 PM PST FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST DURING PERIOD. MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

.BEACHES...AS OF 9:26 AM PST FRIDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. THE MUCH ADVERTISED LONG PERIOD FORERUNNER...WITH
PERIODS 21 TO 22 SECONDS...ARE NOW SHOWING UP ON THE BUOYS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET AT 20 TO 22 SECONDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WASHING FISHERMEN
FROM JETTIES. THIS ENERGETIC SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO
13 FEET AT 17 TO 19 SECONDS TONIGHT. THESE SEA CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY PRODUCING LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AT DEEP WATER BREAKS AND ASSOCIATED STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES WASHING UNSUSPECTING BEACH
VISITORS INTO THE SEA.

.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST FRIDAY...A MODERATE SWELL WITH A LONG
PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEST AND
NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LONG PERIODS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR HARBOR
ENTRANCES...JETTIES AND NEARSHORE SAND BARS. SEAS WILL EASE A BIT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA/MM
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

842 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD END TO THIS LAST WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY AS A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. A STRONGER STORM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK HAS OOZED DOWN
CHAMPLAIN...NORTHERN HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS OVER LAST FEW HOURS.
THIS BEST SEEN AT KGFL WHERE TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED FROM 47 AT
6PM TO 34 AT 8PM. ALSO EVIDENT IN NEW YORK STATE MESONET DATA
WHERE 8PM READINGS SHOW WHITEHALL AT 30 AND TICONDEROGA AT 24. LOW
LEVEL NATURE OF THIS INTRUSION ALSO SHOWN NICELY IN MESONET DATA
WHERE CHESTERTOWN IN WARREN COUNTY AT 1100 FEET IS CURRENT 43.
IN A BROAD SENSE THE HRRR HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE COLD AIR
INTRUSION. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT FRONT WILL NOT SLIDE TOO MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCHING NORTHWARD. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AS WE WILL HOLD BACK POPS/WX
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS. SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS/WX THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SHOWERS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY CLEAR THE REGION AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ACHIEVED AT THAT TIME WITH A STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING VALUES INTO THE AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS SETTLE BACK TO
BELOW 0C BY DAYS END. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE DACKS TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
NW CT. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS NEAR 3K FEET WHERE MID-UPR 20KTS
RESIDE SO A BRISK AFTERNOON EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT...CLIPPER...IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENTS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER...A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND A SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATE AT NIGHT...SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS EASTWARD INTO
UPSTATE NY TO PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY TO MAINLY
20S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE REGION DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. THE COMPLEX ASPECT IS PRECIP CHANCES AS THIS FRONT
RETREATS NORTHWARD. PER THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...SEEMS THE BEST
LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REDUCE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF
PRECIP WHERE TO UNFOLD...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH OF I90. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FOR THE DACKS TO LOWER
40S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/S/ PHASE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. TRENDS
ARE FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH
LEANS TOWARD A WARMER PROFILES. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...WET BULB
PROCESSES WILL LIKELY SPELL A WINTRY MIXTURE/TRANSITION ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. H850 TEMPS SURGE TO NEAR +5C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH
PROTECTED VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR MOST AREAS TO BE LIQUID AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY
CHALLENGING AS OBSERVED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE. AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH
FROM THE GEFS/SREF POINT TOWARD 40S FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE
CATSKILLS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT. HOWEVER...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAVE OF THE SURFACE WAVE
TRACK ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GFS
WANTS TO QUICKLY UNDERCUT THE THERMAL PROFILE WHILE KEEPING A
DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE REGION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
ECMWF/NAM/GGEM QUICKLY END THE PRECIP WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. PER
CLOSE COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH
LIKELY VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT FOR WED NIGHT...GENERALLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS DROPPING TO -15 TO -20 DEGREES C...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IN MOST AREAS FOR WED NIGHT...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY DESPITE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK CHILLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE AREA AS WELL.

SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF....SUGGEST A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE
MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...AND IF WE WERE TO BE IMPACTED WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM. FOR NOW...WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY COLD CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
FRIDAY...AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR FRI NIGHT/.

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO START TO REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS EITHER CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
ALTHOUGH THIS IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE BEING SO FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED TAF FOR KGFL TO ADD LLWS. WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AT KGFL
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NIGHT. EVENING ALY SOUNDING
SHOWED WINDS OF 18035KT AT 1000 FEET. AT OTHER TAF SITES WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTY SO NOT MEETING LLWS CRITERIA. WILL BE MONITORING OTHER
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING THURSDAY.

FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE HSA WILL BE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. LATEST TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD A
WARMER SOLUTION WITH INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENTS MAY BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE. THERE REMAINS SOME VARIABILITY IN
THE STORM TRACK WHICH WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND AMOUNTS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

808 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. HAVE ELECTED TO
EXPLICITLY DEPICT MVFR IN TAFS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A 3-4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND SOUTH.
FRONT CLEARS TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS RETURN
TO VFR.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING THURSDAY.

FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KEY WEST FL

213 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE ONLY LINGERING
CLOUDS NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE 65 WITH A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS SERVICE AREA. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ITS CENTER WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SWINGING QUICKLY THROUGH THE OHIO VLY.
ITS TRAILING FRONT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SAGS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WED/EARLY THURSDAY. A SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THAT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH A MORE DEFINED SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE TRAILING FRONT BEHIND THAT LOW SHOULD SHOULD HAVE A
GREATER CHANCE OF PUSHING MORE CLEANLY THROUGH THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS...EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR VERY EARLY SATURDAY. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON THIS DELAYED SCENARIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF
ARE FOCUSING ELEVATED UPPER DYNAMICS OR LINGERING SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP
MOISTURE FOR THE LOCAL AREA...AT LEAST ON THIS RUN. WILL KEEP THE
RAIN CHANCE CAPPED AT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PUT IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SECOND FRONT. TEMPERATURE-WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING
TOWARDS THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TO BE AT
OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MID-WEEK...AND THEN BACK TO A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE MORE PRONOUNCED
SECOND FRONT.

.MARINE...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST ON THIS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO HOW
HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURGING
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN BUT CONTINUES SEVERAL KNOTS HIGHER THAN ECMWF
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MORE RESOLUTE HRRR SHOWS ONLY A
SHORT PERIOD OF NEAR 20 KNOT WINDS STRADDLING THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PITCHING MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND
MODERATING. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFT
IS NECESSARY FOR A WHILE IN PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE AREA...BUT I
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS THE OPPORTUNITY TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS AND
MAKE A MORE CONFIDENT CALL ON THAT. WILL HAVE AN EXERCISE CAUTION
EVERYWHERE WITH A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAKE THIS UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION SHOULD YOU HAVE BOATING
PLANS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. MODERATING WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 28/18Z AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY LULL BRIEFLY AFTER
SUNSET AT MARATHON...THEN SURGE AGAIN BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY.

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1878...2.90 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL IN KEY WEST
ON FEBRUARY 27TH...WHICH STANDS 138 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 60 73 65 75 / - - - 10
MARATHON 59 73 65 75 / - - - 10

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

855 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

A cold front has pushed eastward to reach roughly the I-70
corridor through southeast IL. Ahead of the front strong southwest
winds 20-30 mph and gusts into the 30-40 mph range continue, with
lighter wind speeds along the frontal zone. Behind the front,
another patch of stronger northwest winds follows, with speeds
15 to 30 mph and more gusts into the 30s. In addition, a couple of
bands of showers with isolated thunderstorms have developed in the
frontal zone, and these should affect areas mainly from I-57 east
as late as midnight before moving out to the east. Winds should
gradually decrease overnight and begin to shift back to
southwesterly by dawn as a surface high pressure ridge axis
crosses the area in the early morning. Temperatures remain
mild...in the 50s to around 60...ahead of the front. Behind the
front, a steady drop is noted with temperatures ranging from
around 40 to 50. Lows overnight should reach from around 32 in
Galesburg, Peoria, and Bloomington, upward to the mid and upper
30s south of I-70. Updates this evening have mainly been for the
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over previous
forecasts.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Cold front has just crossed the Illinois/Iowa border as of 2 pm and
is steadily marching east. Increase in cloud cover has started to
temper some of the wind gusts across the western CWA, and am
planning to let the wind advisory expire west from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward at 4 pm. However, still quite a bit of sun
across the southeast third of the CWA, which has helped with the
mixing of the winds down to the surface. Have had some recent
sustained winds of 40-45 mph from Paris to Lawrenceville with gusts
of 50-55 mph. HRRR model shows a few more hours of strong gusts over
there. Across the southeast third of the forecast area, the advisory
has been extended until 6 pm.

The front should be near I-57 by 7 pm and exiting the southeast CWA
around 9 pm. Strong pressure rises behind the front will likely
bring additional gusts of 35-40 mph northwest of I-55 early this
evening, but the gusts should be settling a bit by the time eastern
Illinois is affected. Rain-wise, temperature/dewpoint spreads are
currently around 20 degrees, although high-resolution model guidance
still tries to generate a few showers over the next few hours. Will
maintain generally 20% PoP`s into early evening, although a bit
higher near the Indiana border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Monday will see the return of southwest flow in the morning, helping
to recover from the brief push of cold air behind Sunday`s cold
front. Some sunshine should help high temps range from the upper 50s
near Danville in eastern IL, to the lower 60s toward Jacksonville
and west central IL.

A storm system is still taking aim on the region for Tuesday. The
12z models are in better agreement, with the GFS, NAM, and Canadian
GEM all taking a low pressure center roughly up the I-70 corridor
later Tuesday morning into afternoon. The ECMWF is farther south
with the track, taking the low across the far southern tip of IL
Tuesday morning, which is 6 hours faster that the other models.

The thermal profiles in the GFS group look to support rain initially
Monday evening as rain develops Rushville to Bloomington
northwestward, then sleet or freezing rain could develop late Monday
night into Tuesday morning north of Peoria. As temps rise above
freezing on Tuesday, precip type should transition to mainly rain,
but sleet or snow will still be possible north of a line from
Rushville to Lincoln to Bloomington through the day. As the surface
low passes across southern IL around mid-day, colder air will be
drawn into the northwest side of the system, changing precip over to
snow in our area northwest of the Illinois river initially. The
change-over to snow should continue Tues evening as colder air
arrives. However, precip potential will decrease as well, so
additional snowfall accums Tues night should be more like a dusting.
Through the whole system evolution, the better chances of snow accum
will be mainly north of Peoria, where up to an inch of snow could
accumulate. Along and north of I-74 will have potential for a few
tenths of an inch as the system departs east of Illinois.

All precip should be done by sunrise on Wed, as high pressure
advances into IL from the west. However, the next system will
quickly start of affect the area later Wed night, as rain or snow
develops in the warm advection area ahead of the low. The low path
looks to remain far enough south of our counties for the precip to
be primarily snow in our counties. Forecast QPF amounts vary widely,
with the Canadian showing potential for a couple of inches snow
accum, mainly in our northern counties, but around an inch even
south of I-72. GFS shows around an inch of snow occurring from west
to east Wednesday into Wed evening. The ECMWF has much less moisture
available, with only a dusting of snow. Will keep the chance PoPs
from the blended initialization, and keep snow as the primary precip
type north of I-72, and a rain/snow mix south of there on Thursday,
with precip as all snow Thursday night before precip ends.

Beyond that, a weak shortwave is projected to pass across northern
IL Sat into Sat night, with spotty rain or snow chances north of our
forecast area. We could see sprinkles or flurries develop, but most
areas should remain dry.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Strong southwest winds ahead of a cold front pushing east across
central IL...and a period of strong northwest winds behind the
front...will be the main features early in the TAF forecast
period. Another cold front will approach the central IL terminals
late in the period.

SW winds 25-30 kts and gusts to 40+ kts ahead of the front have
begun to subside with the front passing the eastern terminals
KDEC-KCMI around 00Z. A period of a few hours of winds NW20-30g35
kts will develop behind the front until around 3-4Z, gradually
diminishing thereafter.

A few bands of light rain are associated with the frontal zone,
and a brief period of MVFR cigs and light rain possible this
evening at KPIA-KBMI.

Winds decreasing to SW 7-10 kts by dawn, then increasing to SW
14-18g25 kts by 16-18Z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton/Shimon
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

547 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

A few bands of light rain are associated with the frontal zone,
and a brief period of MVFR cigs and light rain possible this
evening at KPIA-KBMI.

Winds decreasing to SW 7-10 kts by dawn, then increasing to SW
14-18g25 kts by 16-18Z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ044>046-054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton/Shimon
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1132 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues over central IL as a large scale
low pressure trough dominates the eastern U.S. and a high pressure
ridge dominates the west. At the surface, high pressure has
slipped east of the area which is causing winds to shift to
southwesterly. Skies have cleared across the area except for near
the IN state line, and nothing more than a period of thin high
clouds expected overnight. Temperatures already down to the upper
20s and low 30s this evening, but these will struggle to fall much
more as low level warm advection initiates and a light southerly
wind continues. Expect lows mainly mid to upper 20s overnight.
Have updated for slightly cooler lows tonight, otherwise forecasts
in good shape.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Earlier clearing over the southeast half of the CWA has filled in
since late morning. However, back edge of the low cloud shield has
moved into west central Illinois this afternoon. Latest RAP guidance
suggests most of this should be out of the CWA by mid evening, with
a period of clear skies. However, an area of cirrus will move
through after midnight, associated with the upper wave currently
seen on water vapor imagery from the west tip of Lake Superior into
western Kansas. This will result in partly cloudy conditions as the
wave zips through overnight. Will need to watch for some fog
potential over east central Illinois, as there were 1-3 inches of
snow on the ground there this morning and some melting has taken
place. However, winds will be picking up after midnight, which may
help mitigate the threat. Currently, only the SREF is indicating any
visibility restrictions overnight. Will leave out mention for now
and continue to monitor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Any patchy early morning fog in east-central Illinois early
Saturday morning should quickly dissipate as southwest winds crank
up into the 15 to 25 mph range. The gusty winds and ample sunshine
will go a long way toward melting any remaining snow pack in our
counties as well, with high temps expected to reach in the 50s
across the board.

The upper level ridge responsible for the warming trend will begin
to shift east of Illinois on Sunday, as the next in a series of low
pressure systems approaches the Great Lakes region. Despite
increasing afternoon clouds and slight chances of rain north of
Springfield to Mattoon on Sunday, strong south to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will provide our warmest day of the next week. Highs
will climb into the low to mid 60s. Thunder potential appears to
have lowered with the latest model suite, so no mention of thunder
was included ahead of the cold front later Sunday afternoon. Slight
chances of rain will linger into Sunday evening east of I-57, with
dry conditions after midnight when the cold front departs well to
the east.

A brief push of cooler air will arrive for Monday, but plenty of
sunshine will help high temps recover into the 50s, which are still
well above normal.

The extended models once again have come in with widely varying
solutions. The ECMWF is the only model to develop a deep 990mb low
passing across Illinois roughly along I-72 on Tuesday. It indicates
enough cold air N-NW of the low for several inches of snow W of I-55
Tue afternoon, with rain changing to snow east of I-55 into the
evening. A few thunderstorms would even be possible south of I-72 on
Tuesday. The GFS has a weak and more elongated surface low develop
and pass by to the south of Illinois on Tuesday, with precip mainly
south of I-72, and mainly rain until colder air arrives Tuesday
evening and changes rain to snow as precip ends. The Canadian GEM
has more of an open wave and surface trough pass across Illinois on
Tuesday, with precip starting briefly as rain early Tuesday then
changing to snow, with light accums possible. With such large swings
in each models solutions from cycle to cycle, along with differences
between the models, only minor changes were made to the forecast
from late Monday night through Tues night. The blended
initialization shifted the Likely PoPs on Tuesday to areas southeast
of Decatur, with high chance PoPs elsewhere in central Illinois.
The actual PoP numbers were relatively close to the previous
forecast in general. Precip type scenarios were tied to a warm surge
on Tuesday, then rain changing to snow from W to E Tues night, as
colder air arrives behind the low/surface trough. Changes to this
scenario are likely over the next couple of days before models start
to converge on a solution.

A break in the precip chances is expected for Wednesday as weak high
pressure passes across IL. However, another upper level shortwave
and surface trough are projected to pass over Illinois on Thursday.
There will be higher chances of rain or snow southeast of the
Illinois river, closer to the track of the upper vort max and jet
dynamics.

High temps will dip back below normal from Wednesday to Friday as
the waves bring brief shots of cooler air to the region.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

VFR conditions expected for much of the next 24 hours for central
IL. Some visibility reductions due to fog are possible in early
morning at KDEC-KBMI-KCMI where there is snow cover, however
soundings not favorable for development, and steady south winds
should tend to mitigate. Temporary MVFR visibility is the worst
visibility likely. Winds S-SW 4-8 kts overnight, increasing to
12-15 kts by late morning. Gusts to around 20 kts likely during
afternoon. Winds at 2000 feet AGL expected to reach near 40 kts
toward 06Z Sunday and may result in low level wind shear
conditions, however wind shear values appear too marginal for
inclusion in 06Z TAFs this evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

709 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. RUC AND
HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. RUC AND
HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING OVER WEST
CENTRAL AREA AND EXPANDING EASTWARD. WENT WITH HIGHER CONSRAW POPS
GIVEN MOS AND HIRES TRENDS.

FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WREAKING HAVOC ON DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME CONSENSUS HAS BEEN REACHED
AMONG MODELS ON BASIC SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...MANY DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS AND STILL WITHIN EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DESPITE BEING WITHIN 48 HOURS OF PCPN ONSET.
MOST OF THIS DISPARITY COMES FROM FACT THAT MAIN JET ENERGY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND WILL NOT BE SAMPLED FULLY
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY. THIS ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH THEN EAST OUT OF THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES IS
PROVING PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL MODELS. WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JET WILL
LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW AND ITS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS AN ISSUE AMONG MODELS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
DEVELOPS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. FGEN FORCING WITH THIS ADVECTION PROCESS WILL LEAD
TO EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH TO BEGIN. AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVIER. COMBINATION OF SFC
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C WILL LEAD TO AREA OF
FREEZING RAIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. 12Z SUITE HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND ARE ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISING A
STRONG WARM SURGE THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY. GEM AND ECMWF
ARE STRONGER WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN FASTER TUESDAY. THESE LATTER
MODELS ARE GENERALLY PREFERRED BUT THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING A PERIOD
OF MIXED/FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY.

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME OF
THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TO GET MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND FULLY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS GIVEN COMPLEX UPPER
AIR PATTERN AND INTERACTIONS. STILL RETAINED ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND
DEPENDING ON FINAL TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS A NARROW RIBBON OF ICE
ACCUMS COULD COME CLOSE TO 0.20-0.25 INCHES. AGAIN...LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY BUT SOME TYPE OF HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY GIVEN MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS BEFORE
ENDING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THIS PERIOD REMAIN MURKY GIVEN MODEL
DISPARITY BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WITH WRAP
AROUND AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.

STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
OVER WEST CENTRAL AREA AND EXPANDING EASTWARD. WENT WITH HIGHER
CONSRAW POPS GIVEN MOS AND HIRES TRENDS.

FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WREAKING HAVOC ON
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN REACHED AMONG MODELS ON BASIC SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...MANY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS AND STILL
WITHIN EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DESPITE BEING
WITHIN 48 HOURS OF PCPN ONSET. MOST OF THIS DISPARITY COMES FROM
FACT THAT MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND
WILL NOT BE SAMPLED FULLY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY. THIS
ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH
THEN EAST OUT OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND
INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES IS PROVING PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL MODELS.
WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ITS DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS AN ISSUE AMONG MODELS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT DEVELOPS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. FGEN FORCING WITH THIS ADVECTION PROCESS WILL
LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH TO BEGIN. AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVIER. COMBINATION OF SFC
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C WILL LEAD TO AREA OF
FREEZING RAIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. 12Z SUITE HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND ARE ONCE AGAIN
ADVERTISING A STRONG WARM SURGE THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.
GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN FASTER
TUESDAY. THESE LATTER MODELS ARE GENERALLY PREFERRED BUT THEY ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY
TUESDAY.

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME
OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TO GET MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND FULLY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS GIVEN COMPLEX
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND INTERACTIONS. STILL RETAINED ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WITH MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND DEPENDING ON FINAL TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS A NARROW
RIBBON OF ICE ACCUMS COULD COME CLOSE TO 0.20-0.25 INCHES.
AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT SOME TYPE OF HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY
GIVEN MIXED PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS
BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THIS PERIOD REMAIN MURKY GIVEN
MODEL DISPARITY BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WITH
WRAP AROUND AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.

STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS IN THE MIDST OF A HIGHLY ENERGETIC
PATTERN WEDNESDAY AMID ERN CONUS TROF/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
QUICK RETURN TO NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION W/ RETURN
FLOW/WAA REGIME ESTABLISHING.

SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AS
LOW AS -15C...WHICH COULD BRING A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER TO FAVORED
AREAS. GRIDS SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE SPEED/EVOLUTION OF THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/SRN CANADA WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC/FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS POINT...WITH LARGE
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. IT IS NOTED
THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT NICE DENDRITIC
GROWTH...HOWEVER STRENGTH OF FORCING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURTAIL ANY SPECIFICS BEYOND CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND CHANCE POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WED- FRI ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS/20S...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE REGION.

PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT FRIDAY/SAT TIMEFRAME WITH RIDGING/WAA
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING A PASSING WAVE
SOMETIME SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN
PINPOINTING DETAILS WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD 6-7 DAYS OUT. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY AND INTO THE
MID 40S/LOW 50S SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE CONTINUED WARMING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

PRIMARILY ANTICIPATE VFR MET CONDITOINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. RELATIVE LOW/BUT A NON ZERO CHANCE FOR MVFR
AT OR BELOW 2KFT AGL TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT BY AND LARGE RICHER
MOISTURE RELEGATE NW-N OF AREA AND HELOD ON MENTION ATTM. DETAIL
FOR WIND SHIFT/FROPA AND STRONGER SWRLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON MONDAY.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ017-018-
023>027-032>034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003>009-012>016-020-022.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.
PRIMAR
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ004-005-015-
016-024-025.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&
PRIMAR
$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1240 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

TEMPERATURES AT NOON WERE IN THE 50S WITH THE FAR SW NEAR 60.
WITH WINDS YET TO FULLY MIX OUT...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...AND
LOOKING AT GUSTIER WINDS AND WIDESPREAD 60S UPSTREAM OVER S
CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN MO...FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TOO LOW. HAVE
THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TWEAKING HIGHS UPWARDS CLOSE TO...BUT
NOT AS HIGH AS...THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR FIELDS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S EAST AND NORTH TO THE MID 60S SW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM
WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING ON IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S. SFC
WINDS OUT OF THE SSW WILL LEAD TO GORGEOUS WEATHER THIS SATURDAY
AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES. HOW
WARM WILL WE GET TODAY AND STAY TONIGHT ARE THE QUESTIONS. THE
AMERICAN MODELS AND THE GEM OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO COLD
FOR TODAYS HIGHS. MOS GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE HIGHS TODAY WITH 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 70
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. I DO NOT BUY THAT.

TONIGHT....WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AS AN H85 JET ROTATES
INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MAY ACTUALLY
BE TOO LOW. THINKING THAT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT...LOWS
IN THE 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SW ZONES. ONE THING IS SURE ABOUT
TODAYS FORECAST...IT WILL DEFINITELY START TO FEEL LIKE SPRING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
DRYING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MAIN
VORTICITY ADVECTION PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH INVERTED-V DRY SUB-CLOUD PROFILE. AS RESULT... HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES WITH ANYTHING ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES AT BEST. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT... TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL INTO THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S NEAR TO
SOUTH OF I-80 WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ASSISTANCE OF MILD LAUNCHING
POINT (40S TO NEAR 50 TO START OFF THE DAY). HIGHS MAY STILL BE A
SKOSH CONSERVATIVE AND NEEDING TO BE RAISED 1-3 DEGS MANY
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP
MIXING WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY... NEXT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS. GFS IS THE FASTER OUTLIER WITH FRONT
NEARLY BISECTING CWA FROM SW TO NE AT MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLOWER WITH FRONT SAGGING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND WITH
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER CONSENSUS.
AS A RESULT... HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-3 DEGS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGS
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER... IF TRENDS PERSIST THEN LIKELY NEED TO RAISE THE HIGHS
ANOTHER 1-3 DEGS FOR GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
DRY AIRMASS... WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF COHERENT FORCING YIELDS DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE WITH STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH
ECMWF STILL SUGGESTING A DEEPENING LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE
TAKING ON MORE NEGATIVE TILT. MEANWHILE... GEM/UK/GFS/NAM LATEST RUNS SUPPORT
MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES AND KEYS WITH WHERE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES LIE IS IN THE STRENGTH OF INCOMING SURFACE CANADIAN RIDGE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND COLD AIR WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH
SHARPENING OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OCCURS... IF AT ALL... WHICH WILL IMPACT
STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. THUS FOR NOW CONTINUE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PLACEMENT...TIMING...TRACK OF SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
AS RESULT... HAVE CONTINUED WITH GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MENTION AND CAPPED POPS IN
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY CENTERED ON THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WHERE THE SIGNAL
IS GREATEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SHOWN BY GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
SIMILAR CHALLENGES SHOW UP WITH STRENGTH OF INCOMING HIGH AND COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH LIKELY IMPACTING TRACK/STRENGTH AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
SIMILARLY HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR NOW.

TEMPS WHILE COOLER MID TO LATE WEEK GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH... TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY STORM TRACK AND
EASILY FLUCTUATE WARMER OR COLDER DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THAT
SPEED THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OFF THE SURFACE...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT HEIGHT AND MAGNITUDE IS LOW TO MODERATE AND A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WAS FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 50
KTS AT 1400 FT AGL. LLWS CONDITIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIKELY
STRENGTHENING TO 20 TO 30 KTS BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1125 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

555 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
DRYING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MAIN
VORTICITY ADVECTION PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH INVERTED-V DRY SUB-CLOUD PROFILE. AS RESULT... HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES WITH ANYTHING ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES AT BEST. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT... TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL INTO THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S NEAR TO
SOUTH OF I-80 WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ASSISTANCE OF MILD LAUNCHING
POINT (40S TO NEAR 50 TO START OFF THE DAY). HIGHS MAY STILL BE A
SKOOSH CONSERVATIVE AND NEEDING TO BE RAISED 1-3 DEGS MANY
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP
MIXING WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE THE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY. WINDS COULD STAY UP TONIGHT AS WELL

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

349 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
DRYING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MAIN
VORTICITY ADVECTION PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH INVERTED-V DRY SUB-CLOUD PROFILE. AS RESULT... HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES WITH ANYTHING ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES AT BEST. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT... TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL INTO THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S NEAR TO
SOUTH OF I-80 WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ASSISTANCE OF MILD LAUNCHING
POINT (40S TO NEAR 50 TO START OFF THE DAY). HIGHS MAY STILL BE A
SKOOSH CONSERVATIVE AND NEEDING TO BE RAISED 1-3 DEGS MANY
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP
MIXING WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

VERY QUIET VFR CLEAR WEATHER WILL LAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABOVE 12000 FT...BUT MOST HOURS WILL BE CLEAR WITH UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

522 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

...Updated Aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Strong gusty NW winds, gusting 40-45 mph at midday, will weaken
rapidly this afternoon as pressure gradients collapse, and surface
high pressure centers in Kansas by sunset. Scattered to broken
cirrus, along with some scattered mid-layer clouds near Hays.
Temperatures this afternoon, while noticeably cooler than
yesterday, are still running well above late February normals.

Tonight...several hours of light and variable winds expected this
evening, before return flow and south winds kick in around by
midnight. A bit cooler tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 30s,
but this is still about 10 degrees above normal.

Monday...Another unseasonably warm day to wrap up February.
Downslope SW winds return, gusting 30-35 mph by mid-morning,
allowing lower 70s to return Monday afternoon. SW winds will be
strongest through midday, then weaken during the afternoon hours
as a weak boundary sinks into SW KS. Increasing westerly zonal
flow aloft will bring increasing clouds Monday afternoon, with
a mid-layer overcast expected by 6 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Strong shortwave dives through Kansas Monday night and Tuesday
morning. Models, particularly the GFS solutions, are shaking out
more widespread rain showers Monday night, with pop guidance as
high as 45-50%. Nudged up slight chances for rain showers for more
of the CWA, but given the extended dry spell we have experienced,
was reluctant to go any higher. Placed a few hundreths of an inch
of QPF in the grids, especially east of Dodge City, and a few
locales likely will get enough rain to settle the dust and wet the
pavement. Incoming jet dynamic lift will interact with elevated
instability to ignite convection across NW Oklahoma Monday
evening. Feel the vast majority of this will stay SE of our zones,
but included a mention of isolated thunder across the SE counties
Monday evening. These thunderstorms may clip areas near Medicine
Lodge Monday evening, with the best chance for passing light
rain showers across SW KS after midnight, as the main vorticity
max passes. With 850 mb temps only glancing with -1C, kept all
precipitation mentioned Monday night as rain, although some snow
flakes are certainly possible, especially in the NE zones.

Well, that`s as exciting as SW KS weather gets in the long term.

Tuesday...cool advection behind exiting shortwave will drop
afternoon temperatures substantially, back into the 50s. Strong
north chilly winds of 20-30 mph to start off March.

Wednesday...Much warmer, with downslope SW winds allowing 60s to
return, with lower 70s across the far SW zones. Next vigorous
shortwave in the NW flow digs toward SW KS through the northern
Rockies.

This next robust shortwave dives through Wednesday night,
intensifying to a 552 mb closed low at 500 mb near Medicine Lodge
at 6 AM Thursday. While a passing sprinkle may be generated, model
consensus is anything measurable will stay north and east of SW
KS, so kept forecast dry with pop grids less than 15%.

Thursday...Cooler, with high temperatures falling about 10-15
degrees from Wednesday`s readings.

Friday and Saturday...Warmer downslope with 60s returning areawide
each afternoon. Yet another inconsequential shortwave is scheduled
to pass Friday night, with no sensible weather impacts.

Next Sunday...Warmer SW flow returns, with lower 70s returning to
many locales.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Gusty northwest winds will quickly decrease early this evening as
an area of high pressure at the surface begins to move into
western Kansas. Wind speeds will fall back to less than 10 knots
by 02z Monday. As the surface high crosses western Kansas
overnight these light winds will gradually veer to the south. On
Monday a surface boundary will cross western Kansas during the
day. Ahead of this surface boundary a gusty south wind of 15 to 20
knots will develop between 15z and 18z Monday. As this boundary
passes between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday these gusty south to
southwest winds will decrease and shift to the northwest. NAM BUFR
soundings along with the RAP and HRRR indicate VFR conditions.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions will return on Monday.
SW downslope winds return around 9 AM, and continue through about
3 pm, averaging 15-25 mph with gusts near 30 mph. With
unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s, and
MIN RH falling to 15-25%, outdoor burning is again discouraged
Monday.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 72 37 55 / 0 0 20 10
GCK 36 70 34 57 / 0 0 20 10
EHA 39 71 36 57 / 0 0 20 10
LBL 37 75 38 58 / 0 0 20 10
HYS 38 69 34 51 / 0 0 20 10
P28 38 74 42 55 / 0 0 20 10

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Turner

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1011 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

WITH TODAYS SNOW SYSTEM E OF THE AREA...ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING SE THRU MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STARVED...BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO A SHORT
PERIOD OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING. SUFFICIENT OVERWATER
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO ENHANCE THE SNOW A BIT AS WELL. WHILE MOST
OF WRN AND NRN UPPER MI SHOULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...THE MUCH
BIGGER HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS AND RESULTING BLSN WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE ARCTIC FROPA. STRONG
CAA (AROUND 10C IN 6HR AT 850MB) AND FAST MOVING...IMPRESSIVE PRES
RISES OF 10-12MB/3HR WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT ALIGNED FAVORABLY WITH THE
GRADIENT WIND. RESULT SHOULD BE A 2-3HR PERIOD OF PEAK WIND GUSTS IN
THE 35-50MPH RANGE ACROSS UPPER MI MON MORNING. THE GUSTS TO AROUND
50MPH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OPEN AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD. WINTER WX ADVYS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR. CONSIDERED
ISSUING WARNINGS FOR THE AREAS WITH HIGHEST WINDS...BUT SINCE THERE
IS STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND RAPID FALLING OF THE INVERSION TO
AROUND 4KFT RIGHT AFTER FROPA...THE SNOW INTENSITY/COVERAGE WILL BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WINDS. THAT SAID...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR A FEW HRS MON MORNING DUE
TO VERY POOR VIS IN BLSN. NEXT SHIFT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING HEADLINES FOR SOME
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE BLSN...THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO A
FEW POWER OUTAGES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH SFC LO PRES OVER NRN
LK MI MOVING E ALONG STALLED FNT THAT PASSED THRU THE AREA LAST NGT.
AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX OVER SE CANADA HAS OVERCOME SOME VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z GRB RAOB TO BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ON THE
SE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...THE SHARP UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DYNAMICS AND UNDER COLDER CLD TOPS SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY HAS
BROUGH A CHANGE TO MAINLY SN. THERE IS AN AREA OF MDT SN OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER H7-75 FGEN. THE PCPN
OVER THE WRN CWA IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE SHARPER FORCING AND
COLDER CLD TOPS ARE SHIFTING TO THE E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLDS. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS
DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA.

AS THE SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/ FGEN EXIT TO THE E
AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE
STEADY SN TO DIMINISH. THE LAST OF THE SET OF CURRENT ADVYS ARE SET
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...AND THIS TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. A TRAILING SFC HI
PRES RDG NOW MOVING INTO MN IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS THE CWA TNGT.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RDG
AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
EXPECTED W WINDS. BUT ANY CLRG WL BE BRIEF AS THE DISTURBANCE NOW
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO
BY 12Z MON. SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/ DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO THE WRN LKS IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MSTR
INFLOW WL BE QUITE LIMITED...THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC ARRIVING WITH THE SFC TROF TOWARD 12Z JUSTIFY
SOME LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATE TNGT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ON MON MRNG AS THE TROF PASSES QUICKLY.
THERE WL BE A QUICK BURST OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LK SUP AS THE TROF PASSES...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IF HEAVIER STRIPE
OF SNOW DEVELOPS AS WRF-ARW/NMM AND NAM SUGGEST.

WINDS AND BLSN/DRSN WILL BE BIGGER ISSUE ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING TO 996-997MB OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TIGHTENS PRESSURE
GRADIENT UP TO 18MB BY 15Z ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR EVIDENCED BY -30C H85 TEMP AT CHURCHHILL
MANITOBA THIS MORNING IS DRAWN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR LEADING TO
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE. NNW-NW WINDS WITHIN MIXED LAYER ARE
UP TO 45-50 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH 40-45 KTS OVER
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC WINDS FM NAM/GEM-
REGIONAL/LOCAL WRF ARE 40 KTS OVER MOST OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
CONTINUED TREND FM MID SHIFT TO RAMP UP WINDS IN THE MORNING AND
SHOW RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY
ADVISORIES UP INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR ZONES...WILL
ISSUE AN SPS. AS EVEN WITH SUB ADVY SNOWFALL...THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS/BLSN WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW/WIND
AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE...LIKELY WILL NEED AN SHORT DURATION
ADVISORY. WINDS MAY ALSO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG LK SUPERIOR AFFECTING COPPER HARBOR AND AREAS
FROM BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT...INCLUDING MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

DESPITE H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -20C...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND MONDAY MORNING SYSTEM SHOULD PUT SIGNIFICANT CRIMP ON LES
CHANCES LATER MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. KEPT SCT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NW WIND AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH OF EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH ALL
LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN DGZ...SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
WINDS WILL RAMP DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY MON EVENING SO ANY BLSN
ISSUES SHOULD WANE BY THAT TIME. TEMPS INLAND OVER WEST AND CENTRAL
MON NIGHT MAY TRY TO DIP BLO ZERO...ESPECIALLY FOR WHERE WINDS TRY
TO DECOUPLE. STILL APPEARS SYSTEM FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT REMAINS WELL TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/IL/LOWER MICHIGAN.
LIGHT LES WILL CONTINUE OFF LK SUPERIOR IN NW-N WIND AREAS TO EAST
OF MARQUETTE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMS AS INVERSIONS
STAY BLO 5KFT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE MEAN
TROUGHING. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK AS TIGHT AS IT DID YDY
BUT A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR BY WED NIGHT.
EXPECT THE LES TO INCREASE FOR A TIME WED INTO WED NIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. MODELS DIFFER ON WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE COLD WITH GFS PUSHING SUB -20C H85 TEMPS OVER ALL OF
UPR MICHIGAN WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE GLANCING BLOW OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND FAR EASTERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THU SO KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH LES DIMINISHING. ANOTHER SUB
ZERO NIGHT COULD OCCUR THU NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MAY BE SOME LGT SNOW AT TIMES DUE TO SHORTWAVES
WORKING THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE EVENING AT KCMX...AND IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AT KIWD. AT KSAW...CIGS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR OVERNIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. MORE -SN WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE W LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND IMPRESSIVE PRES
RISES WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40KT AT KIWD/KSAW
AND ABOVE 40KT AT KCMX FOR A FEW HRS MON MORNING. COMBINATION OF
-SHSN AND SIGNIFICANT BLSN WILL RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KSAW WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KCMX. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED...AND WITH VERY DRY AIR HINDERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTN WITH VFR BY LATE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THIS AFTN...WINDS OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL
COME DOWN BLO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
WITH A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO GALES TO 35 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND TO
45 KTS ON MON MORNING...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. STORM FORCE GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION...BUT WILL STICK
WITH GALE WARNING ATTM. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE MON
AFTN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OVER QUEBEC AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. WINDS SHOULD STAY BLO 25 KTS MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT
BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH
BLO 20 KTS THU INTO FRI AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
REGION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-
003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 11 AM EST
/10 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC/JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

659 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

STILL LOOKS LIKE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MAY BE SOME LGT SNOW AT TIMES DUE TO SHORTWAVES
WORKING THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ004>007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

SHORT TERM...KC/JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN LO AMPLITUDE RDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME
TROFFING IN ERN NAMERICA. THE WX OVER UPR MI IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH LLVL WNW FLOW ADVECTING 12Z H85 TEMP OF 5C AT INL INTO THE
CWA. DESPITE SOME MID/HI CLDS PRESENT ABOVE FAIRLY DRY SFC-H7 LYR
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S WITHIN THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS...REACHING RECORD LVLS AT SOME
PLACES. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT DROPPING INTO LK SUP. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FNT IS RATHER COLD AND DRY AS 12Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS WERE 35C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. SFC DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN BLO
0F JUST TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE RDG
AXIS. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD VSBL ON WV IMAGERY...AND
OBSVD 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS IN ITS PATH WERE ARND 100M.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON IMPACT OF SHRTWV
MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SN TOTALS AND NEED TO EXPAND GOING WINTER WX ADVY.

TONIGHT...HIER RES MODELS SHOW SFC COLD FNT DROPPING S THRU THE CWA
THIS EVNG...REACHING NEAR MENOMINEE BY 06Z...WHEN THE FNT IS FCST TO
STALL ACROSS NCENTRAL WI. WHILE THE FROPA WL BE DRY DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF MSTR IN THE SFC-H7 LYR...MANY OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY SGNFT LLVL MOISTENING UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION BASE
STRENGTHENED BY NEAR SFC CAA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE LLVL
ENE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WL UPSLOPE. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM OBS AND TENDENCY FOR SOME OF THESE MODELS TO BE
TOO MOIST IN THE NEAR SFC LYR...CONCERNED THIS LLVL MOISTENING MAY
BE OVERDONE. BUT OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE FLOW WL ENHANCE COOLING/MOISTENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN...INCRSG DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG NRN ROCKIES SHRTWV THAT WL CAUSE A
LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE STALLING FNT IN MN/WI AS WELL AS UPR
DVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND IN RRQ OF 130KT H3
JET MAX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY WL CAUSE DEEPENING MSTR/PCPN TO ENVELOP
THE AREA FM THE NW. THIS PCPN WL AT LEAST BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
SN/SLEET/FREEZING RA AND RA OVER ALL BUT THE NCENTRAL DUE TO
PRONOUCNED ELEVATED WARM/DRY LYR SHOWN BY MANY OF THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS. BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND RESULTING DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WL COOL/MOISTEN THIS LYR WL CAUSE A CHANGE TO SN FM THE
NW TO SE. THE NAM IS A BIT OUT OF AN OUTLIER SHOWING A LONGER
LASTING ELEVATED WARM LYR...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING WL TEND TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE/QUICKER CHANGE TO MAINLY
SN. BUT EVEN THESE MODELS INDICATE SOME MIXED PCPN WL LINGER OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN ON SUN.

ONCE THE SFC LO TRACKING E ALONG THE STALLED FNT TO THE S SHIFTS
INTO LOWER MI AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS OVER THE W IN THE
AFTN...EXPECT THE PCPN THERE TO TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT LES AS H85
TEMPS FALL TO TOWARD -13C UNDER TRAILING THERMAL TROF. AS FOR SN
TOTALS...FCST H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO ABOUT 3-4 G/KG INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 INCHES OF WET SN /DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER HI
AND NARROW/ IN 6-12HR PERIOD OF FORCING OVER MAINLY THE N HALF OF
THE CWA...WHICH WL BE IMPACTED BY THE SHARPEST FGEN. OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PCPN AND PASSAGE OF ENHANCED
FORCING TO THE N WL RESULT IN AN INCH OR LESS OF SN.

FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO INCLUDE ONTONAGON AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SN WL
FALL IN THIS AREA. ALSO CONSIDERED ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT WITH MAINLY ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FCST IN THIS AREA DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE CWA TO
HEADLINE THE WINTRY MIX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

...SNOW AND BLSN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IS HIGHEST IMPACT
WEATHER OF EXTENDED...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND COLD AIR STARTS THE WEEK OUT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW INTERVALS OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET
DIGGING INTO WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THIS PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN JET BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE.

MOST EFFECTS OF SUN SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH ON SUN EVENING AS BRIEF SFC
RIDGE CROSSES AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS
FIRST PART OF SUN EVENING OVER FAR EAST. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DIVE TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUN
NIGHT AND CROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON MON MORNING. PVA/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
WINDS SHIFTING NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -19C
BY LATE MON MORNING WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MOST OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE EXITING MID-LATE MORNING SO THINK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...SO BLSN AND
REDUCED VSBY MAY BE ISSUE AS WELL. NAM IS SLOW OUTLIER WITH
FROPA...SO WENT MORE WITH GFS/GEM/LOCAL WRF. THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE REACHING ADVY...ADDED WIND/BLSN COMBINED WITH FROPA
OCCURRING JUST BEFORE OR DURING THE MON MORNING COMMUTE MAY ADD TO
THE HAZARD. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING...LES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT AT A DIMINISHED INTENSITY. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH AT
P53 AND ERY INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -18C. SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE STAYS
ON TRACK SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING SNOW
FM NORTHERN ILL TO LOWER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EVEN WITH
SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH...HINTS IN MODELS THAT LES MAY FLARE UP SOME
FOR NW FLOW AREAS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHERN FRINGE OF
DEEPER FORCING AFFECTS UPR MICHIGAN. INVERSIONS REMAIN AT OR BLO
5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE OF LES WILL INCREASE...IT SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM ON UPPER LAKES BY WED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW TIGHT SFC TROUGH BECOMES OVER LK
SUPERIOR INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS/GEM SHOW MORE OF A LOW OVER EASTERN
UPR MICHIGAN BY WED AFTN WHILE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG. EITHER CASE
SHOULD FAVOR PERIOD OF LGT SNOW WED MORNING BECOMING LES OFF
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. WITH THE STRONGER LOW...GFS IDEA WOULD SUGGEST
MORE SNOW/BLSN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS AT P53 SHOW
INVERSIONS NEARING 10KFT. ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD OR STRONG WITH MSLP
GRADIENT. BOTH SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE. RAN WITH CONSENSUS...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED INTO WED NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF LK
SUPERIOR AS A NUDGE TOWARD COLDER IDEA. RIDGE BUILDS OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES THU INTO THU NIGHT. MINS THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR COULD
DROP BLO ZERO...BUT DID NOT GO THAT FAR FM CONSENSUS NOW. ONCE RIDGE
PASSES BY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
MODEST WARMING TREND AND AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

A STEADILY DIMINISHING...DRY W TO SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTN. BUT WITH
A WSHFT TO THE NE FOLLOWING A COLD FROPA THIS EVNG...SOME LO CLDS
WITH MVFR CIGS WL DVLP AND THEN TRANSITION TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AT
SAW WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION UNDER STRENGTHENING LO
INVRN BASE. THE SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION AT SAW WL ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOME -FZDZ OVERNGT AT THAT LOCATION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MSTR LATE TNGT AND SUN MRNG...EXPECT SN AT CMX AND A WINTRY MIX
CHANGING TO SN AT IWD AND SAW. LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AT ALL
THE SITES SUN MRNG WITH STEADY LGT-MDT SN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

COLD FRONT MOVING DROPPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A SFC LOW
CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NE GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY ON SUN. WINDS UP TO 30
KTS OVER REST OF THE LAKE. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BLO 25 KTS LATER SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
25 KTS OR LESS BY THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THEN
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1132 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

On the large scale...water vapor showing a building ridge of high
pressure across the Central Rockies this morning which is occurring
ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough now digging into the Great
Basin. This ridge will continue to move downstream over the Plains
and Lower Missouri Valley today...which will result in afternoon
highs anywhere between 15-20 degrees below normal. 00z upstream
observed soundings showing a very dry atmosphere in place across the
Northern and Central Plains...with fcst soundings suggesting dry
adiabatic lapse rates and decent mixing potential this afternoon.
Winds of 15-20 mph with stronger gusts will combine with low
relative humidity values to result in an enhanced fire weather
threat this afternoon...and additional details are provided in the
fire weather section below. Otherwise...expect mostly sunny skies
with daytime highs climbing into the middle to upper 60s across much
of the area...with a few low 70s possible across far eastern Kansas
and far western Missouri.

Dry conditions tonight will give way to increasing cloud cover
towards morning as aforementioned shortwave sends a cold front south
towards our area early Sunday morning. This feature will pass with
little impact through the day as any precip remains well to our
north. Temps will be cooler (generally in the low to mid 60s) as
cold air advection gets underway by early afternoon across much of
the area.

High pressure to quickly build in Sunday night and early Monday which
should provide a dry start to the work week. Meanwhile attention will
quickly be drawn to our west as long-advertised storm system begins
to take shape as northern stream energy quickly dives southeast from
the Canadian and Northern Rockies. As was stated yesterday...models
have been struggling with the degree of impacts across our area as
phasing disagreements continue to result in a multitude of different
storm tracks for the main sfc low. The GFS...the furthest northward
solution last night...is now the farthest south...with the main sfc
low fcst to track from the Red River Vly east along the MO/AR state
line. Meanwhile the ECMWF...and to a lesser extent the
Canadian...take the sfc low on a much further northward
track...mainly along and north of I-70. Irregardless of which
solution verifies...latest trends suggest only minor impacts across
our area as precip largely stays in the form of rain until early
Tuesday morning when enough cold air sinks south temporarily to
allow a rain/snow mix before diurnal warming changes any wintry
precip back to rain.

Beyond this...dry wx to return by Tuesday night with this trend
continuing through the day on Wednesday as high pressure temporarily
slides into the region. Fcst models show the next weak storm system
impacting the area early Thursday as the next fast clipper-type
system moves across the area. Dry wx will then return for the
remainder of the work week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

Unrestricted visibility and ceilings anticipated through the entire
forecast period. Gusty winds will likely persist overnight, which
should prevent low level wind shear concerns. Winds in the lowest
3000 feet could reach 50 to 55 kts out of the southwest. Should
surface winds remain in the 15 to 25 kt range LLWS concerns will be
low, but if winds go calm or light for a couple hours overnight, LLWS
will be an issue.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Fire weather concerns will be on the rise this afternoon as low
relative humidity combines with dry surface fuels and modest
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph. Winds should begin to pick up
later today with gusts reaching as high as 25-30 mph during peak
heating. BUFKIT soundings reveal plenty of varying solutions on the
efficiency of atmospheric mixing later this afternoon. Soundings from
the NAM suggest shallow mixing only occurring up to roughly
925-mb...while the RAP maintains the suggestion of ample mixing
occurring past 850-mb. Under this scenario...stronger winds (850
winds of roughly 40 kts expected today) would have little difficulty
mixing to the surface thanks to favorable low-level lapse rates. The
GFS is slightly higher with its mixing depth as compared to the
NAM...but not nearly as efficient as what the RAP is advertising.
Based on this along with numerous model wind field solutions that
suggest 20-foot winds will remain in the 15-20 mph range this
afternoon...have elected to hold off on upgrading the inherited SPS
to a Red Flag Warning (RFW) this morning. Will allow dayshift the
opportunity to monitor trends with the assumption that a quick-
hitting RFW could be issued if needed. Winds will remain elevated
overnight...however increasing RH values will result in improving
fire weather concerns through the evening and overnight hours.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

538 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. The main concern
will be increasing southwesterly winds with sustained speeds of
15-20 kts likely this afternoon...with gusts as high as 25-30 kts
possible. Speeds will remain elevated through the overnight period as
a strong low-level jet moves overhead. Otherwise...a very dry
atmosphere will lead to little of any cloud coverage through the fcst
cycle.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

VFR conditions through the forecast period with few if any clouds.
Main concern will continue to be with the winds. Light winds through
the morning hours. Winds will definitely pick up and become gusty
during the afternoon hours. While there may be a slight decrease in
the winds for a few hours around sunset, likely most noticeable in
the gusts, a strengthening low-level jet will lead to even stronger
winds during the evening hours.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

243 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY..THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE PUSHING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA. SOME PLACES WILL
SEE NO MORE THAN A TRACE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT BRIEF NORTHWEST FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD AND
DRY. MONDAY THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SILVER STATE. TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY WIL BE DRY.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST IR IMAGE HAS A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN ZONES OF THE LKN
CWA..WITH A SMATTERING OF CIRRUS UPWIND.THE NESDIS OPERATIONAL
BLENDED TPW...CLEARLY SHOWS A FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NEVADA...BUT ITS NOT REALLY IMPRESSIVE
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO SOME OF THE PREVIOUS STORMS FROM THE
2015-2016 WINTER. THE PWS FROM THE LATEST LKN SOUNDING IS .26 OF
AN INCH...WHICH ALMOST SOUNDS PROMISING UNTIL YOU FACTOR IN THAT
THE GFS IS CONSISTENTLY DRIER AND DRIER EACH RUN. THE HRRR PINGS
INTO SHOWERS OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY BUT IS PRETTY SPARTAN WITH THE
QPF OVER ELKO COUNTY. BACKED OFF ON THE POPS THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...BECAUSE THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND THE MODELS ARE COMING
IN DRIER AND DRIER. BEST BET FOR QPF BEYOND A TRACE WILL BE
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 50S. AT THE WMC AIRPORT WENT FOR A
HIGH OF 64F...WHICH IS BELOW THE ALL TIME HIGH OF 74F FOR THAT
DATE WHICH WAS SET IN 1986. FOR ELKO...WENT FOR A HIGH OF 54F
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE MEAN MAX TEMP OF 46F FOR FEB 28TH. MONDAY
THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA...SPITTING OUT TRACES OF RAIN ALONG I-80 AND OTHER PLACES
IN NORTHERN NV.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. LITTLE COMPLICATED
PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL TAKE A
GENERAL COMPROMISE. RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THIS GIANT CLOSED MONSTER LOW SITS OFFSHORE...EJECTING
WEAK SHORT WAVES AROUND THE BASE AT FIRST...WHICH TEND TO DEPRESS
THE RIDGE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THIS...THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE COAST AND FILLS IN A BIT
(STARTS OFF THE LONG TERM WITH A H5 CENTER OF 493 DM) AND OTHER
TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOWS DUMBBELL AROUND THE BLACK HOLE AND
EJECT TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND INLAND. ALTHOUGH WEAKER AS THEY
MAKE IN OVER THE SIERRA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE IS A HINT OF
SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF STRONG JET
STREAK POINTED DIRECTLY AT CENTRAL NEVADA. THE ACTUAL DIVERGENCE
FIELDS ARE WEAK TO "LOW/MODERATE" AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE YET, SO HAVE KEPT POPS LOW, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD.
WINDS MAY INCREASE MID WEEK TO LATE WEEK WITH APPROACH OF JET
STREAK.

COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH FOR: WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. JUST FYI. COLDER AIR WITH
BUCKLING OF RIDGE WILL ALSO ENABLE SHOWERS TO TURN TO LOW ELEVATION
SNOWS. IT IS STILL WINTER...

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MAY DRIVE WINDS TO NORTHWEST
OR WEST AND GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
HIGH CIGS AND MID CLOUDS AT KTPH AND KELY...AND MID LEVEL CIGS AT
KWMC AND KEKO...WITH SOME VCSH AT KWMC AND KEKO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CIGS TO RISE. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

97/98/98

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

941 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

SNOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH WEB
CAMS AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME FAIRLY HEAVY ACCUMULATION. THERE
HAS EVEN BEEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE UP BY LANGDON. SPC MESO PAGE
SHOWS VERY STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH NEGATIVE EPV VALUES. RAP AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND EPV MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GIVEN THE QUICK SHOT
OF SNOW THINK THAT 1 TO 2 WITH MAYBE SOME SPOTS UP TO 3 LOOK GOOD
FOR AMOUNTS. THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP AND SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS TIGHTER AROUND 05 TO 06Z.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS RIGHT
AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AS THE BOUNDARY GOES
THROUGH MAY TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING. AT THIS POINT WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF POPS COMING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL WELL UP IN
CANADA. BUT OTHERWISE KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF LIGHT SNOW COMING
IN AND THEN WINDS PICKING UP. THE 22Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP
WERE GOING MORE BULLISH WITH SNOW...PUTTING AROUND 4 INCHES FROM
GRAFTON TO JUST NORTH OF BEMIDJI. NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP TOTALLY
ON BOARD WITH THAT MUCH SNOW...BUT DID INCREASE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
JUST A LITTLE. WINDS WILL DEFINITELY HOWL AS A THE ARCTIC FRONT
COMES SCREAMING DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF BLOWING OF THE SNOW...SO WILL KEEP
OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IS WHAT HEADLINE FOR ARCTIC BOUNDARY
PLUNGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
CAA AND IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET WILL INDUCE MIXING
TO NEAR 900MB WITH PREFERRED MAVMOS GUIDANCE BRINGING 30KTS
SUSTAINED TO THE VALLEY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION
REMAINS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ONLY SNOWPACK
REMAINING IS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DVL BSN AND INTO NW...RED
RIVER VALLEY FLOOR APPEARS SNOW FREE WITHIN 20 TO 30 MILES OF THE
BORDER. MODEL SUITE DOES SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH AROUND AND INCH
TO UP TO 2 OF NEW SNOW ALONG A LINE FROM LANGDON TO GRAND FORKS
TO PARK RAPIDS AND AREAS NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SHORT
WNTR WX ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEVERELY REDUCED VSBYS WHEN THE
SNOW IS FALLING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ALSO FALL TO NEAR 25 BELOW
BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SETTLING INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FRINGES. GIVEN SUN ANGLE MAX TEMPS MAY RECOVER SOME IN
SNOW FREE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEGATIVE TEENS IN NW
MN WITH DEEPER SNOW PACK TO NEAR 10 IN THE S RRV BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCED BY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL SKIRT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS NOT AS COLD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS SNOW PACK
REMAINS ONLY IN THE DVL BSN AND NW MN MINUS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
PROPER. WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALLOFF A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN INTO THU AND
THU NIGHT. BY THIS POINT IT APPEARS MORE OF ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
SET UP. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS ON THU STILL LOOK COOL BUT WILL THEN
WARM UP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTION MAY BE EXACTLY
HOW MUCH WARMING...AND WITH LITTLE SNOW COVER TEMPTATION IS TO BUMP
UP TEMPS A LITTLE OVER GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THRU THE FA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHICH COULD SPREAD A LITTLE PCPN INTO
THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED OUT OF KFAR AND KTVF...AND
INTO KBJI IN THE LAST HOUR. THE REST OF THE SITES WILL BE BRIEFLY
VFR BEFORE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND BRINGS CIGS BACK
DOWN. THE FRONT WILL HIT LIKE A FREIGHT TRAIN...WITH WINDS UP
ABOVE 25 KTS GUSTING AROUND 35...AND LOWERED VIS IN THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE SOME SNOW FALLING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS SOME
BLSN IS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP KGFK GOING DOWN TO AROUND 1SM AND THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES AROUND 2-5SM AS THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR WORSE VIS. HAVE THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT HITTING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AROUND 05 TO 06Z...WITH KFAR
AROUND 08Z. IT WILL BE A VERY QUICK SHOT OF LOW VIS AND THEN BACK
TO P6SM WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THINK THAT MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL HANG ON BEFORE STARTING TO
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-015-
016-026-027-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
013>017.

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...GODON
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

637 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-015-
016-026-027-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
013>017.

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...GODON
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

1033 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TODAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PIVOT EAST THRU THE GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA TO PUSH EAST ACRS ILN/S FA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN WARM MOIST ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED
INTO ILN/S WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A NARROW RIBBON OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE FRONT. MARGINAL INSTBY EXISTS
IN THIS THIN AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50
HAVE POOLED. LATEST RAP SOLN HOLDS ONTO MARGINAL INSTBY AND TAKES
IT MAINLY ACRS ILN/S SRN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
TO LKLY AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER.

ILN/S VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 50 KTS OF WIND AT 2K FEET ABOVE
GROUND. WITH THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF PCPN DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS AND ADDED THIS
MENTION TO SPS AND HWO PRODUCTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTON TYING THE RECORD SO FAR. WINDS
HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL SITES RECORDING
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
MODELS BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FRONT IS FORECASTED TO
BE THROUGH THE CWA BY AROUND 6 AM. HIGH RES MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING THIS BAND OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT AND ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS OMEGA
VALUES AGAIN LIGHT ALONG THE FRONT THANKS TO STRONG PVA. PWATS ON
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ALSO RISE TO AROUND 0.80". GIVEN THE GOOD
LIFT AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND SURFACE ALONG WITH SATURATED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PULLING EAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES FORECASTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO MONDAY
MORNING BUT QUICKLY RISE BACK UP AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY (UPPER
40S NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH).

MONDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES STALLING A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
MICHIGAN/ OHIO BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES ALLOWING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE OKLAHOMA/ KANSAS BORDER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTH AND PUSH EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/
TENNESSEE.

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR TUESDAY IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT REGARDING
TYPE OF WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AND UNFORTUNATELY MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN TEND TO BE
IN AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
THE LATEST 18Z MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS FURTHER WEST AS WELL. FOR
NOW HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EURO/ CMC SOLUTION. IN THE WARM
SECTOR TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE LOW SFC - 1 KM SRH VALUES ARE
NEARING 300 M2/S2 AND SFC - 1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS. CAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO APPROACHING 500 VIA THE NAM AND 300 VIA THE GFS.
GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK CLIPPING
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR DAY 3.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECASTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. HAVE
AGAIN TRENDED TOWARDS THE EURO/CMC SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC SO WILL AT
LEAST LINGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT TO RISE WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTH.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND IS
NOW SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE MORE SOUTHERN GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z CMC
IS STILL CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW EAST RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TRIM THEM BACK A BIT BASED ON THE ECMWF TREND.
TEMPERATURES AND PTYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF/GFS YIELDING ALL
SNOW BUT LOWER CHANCES OF PCPN. THE MORE NORTHERN CMC WOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT ALSO A BETTER CHANCE
OF PCPN. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH SO WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO PIVOT
EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
OVER IL TO PUSH EAST ACRS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z .
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT THREE HOURS AS THIS
FRONT PUSHES THRU LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE
MENTIONED VCSH DURG THIS PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CEILINGS WILL
LOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS FCST. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CIGS THRU
MONDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTN.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS THIS EVENING AND THEN
VEER TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL BACK SW
ON MONDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

502 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER AIR ALOFT EVAPORATES CLOUDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z RAP HAS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX AXIS FROM NEAR DAY TO SW OF LEX
WITH ANOTHER 500 MB VORT NEAR DTW MI. FIRST AXIS PASSES OUR MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z WITH THE SECONDARY ONE PASSING AROUND 16Z. WILL STILL LEAVE
SOME FLURRIES THIS PREDAWN ACROSS NORTHERN WV LOWLANDS INTO THE MID
MORNING FOR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CEILING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARMING ALOFT AT 850 MBS. HAVE BACK/WESTERN EDGE MOVING EAST AROUND
15 KNOTS. HAVE CLEARING INTO SE OHIO AND NE KY AROUND 14/15Z...THEN
CONTINUING EAST. A CLEAR SKY FORESEEN FOR TONIGHT.

925 MB FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WITH 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE
OHIO. SO HAVE HILLTOPS MILDER THAN SHELTERED VALLEYS TONIGHT. TRIED TO
KEEP THE SNOW COVERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH WARMER SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING -SHRA BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL
BE TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR...AND
A GENERAL CLEARING TREND OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER SYSTEM...THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ABOUT MID WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST...ALTHOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TRANSITIONING TO -
SHSN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF MOISTURE MAY
HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAKER SYSTEM FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARING NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE 12Z SET OF TAFS. STILL A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

CEILINGS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES.

CLEARING MOVING EAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AFTER 14Z.

MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW INVERSION MAY STILL FORM IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY LINGER A HOUR OR 2 LONGER THAN
FORECAST IN WEST VIRGINIA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 02/27/16
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

305 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER AIR ALOFT EVAPORATES CLOUDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z RAP HAS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX AXIS FROM NEAR DAY TO SW OF LEX
...WITH ANOTHER 500 MB VORT NEAR DTW MI. FIRST AXIS PASSES OUR MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z WITH THE SECONDARY ONE PASSING AROUND 16Z. WILL STILL LEAVE
SOME FLURRIES THIS PREDAWN ACROSS NORTHERN WV LOWLANDS INTO THE MID
MORNING FOR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH WARMER SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING -SHRA BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL
BE TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR...AND
A GENERAL CLEARING TREND OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAKER SYSTEM FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM CROSSES WV ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS AT 3 TO 4
THSD FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES. HAVE
CEILING LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR DAWN...THEN LIFTING AGAIN BY 15Z.
A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE 08Z TO 14Z IN WEST VIRGINIA.

CEILINGS DISSIPATES AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED WEST TO EAST 13Z TO
19Z.

MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY LINGER A HOUR OR 2 LONGER THAN
FORECAST IN WEST VIRGINIA.

DATE SAT 02/27/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1234 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER AIR ALOFT EVAPORATES CLOUDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES MADE. THE 00Z NAM IS BACKING OFF
ON MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY FLURRIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT RECENT RAP RUNS...AND THE SREF CONTINUE TO
PRINT OUT JUST A BIT OF QPF. DUE TO THIS KEPT FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY...ENDING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A DECREASE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AND IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL CALM AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. NO PCPN
IS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE PASSING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE.
IT MAY END UP TO BE A DRY SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS PERIOD WITH ONE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL BE REPLACED BY MODESTLY COOLER AIR ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY WILL BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND COMBINE WITH
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. WE EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT GETS IN EARLY MONDAY
TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY. PERHAPS THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...IT
WILL BE WINDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MID LATITUDE WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HEADING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRONG...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE WATCH FOR CONVECTION/THUNDER
WITH THE SYSTEM. LEAVING THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. PACIFIC
SYSTEM BRINGS A MODEST COOL DOWN IN ITS WAKE...AND WILL DEAL WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAKER
SYSTEM FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL IN
ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM CROSSES WV ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS AT 3 TO 4
THSD FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES. HAVE
CEILING LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR DAWN...THEN LIFTING AGAIN BY 15Z.
A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE 08Z TO 14Z IN WEST VIRGINIA.

CEILINGS DISSIPATES AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED WEST TO EAST 13Z TO
19Z.

MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY LINGER A HOUR OR 2 LONGER THAN
FORECAST IN WEST VIRGINIA.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1207 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 27/18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
03Z TONIGHT...WITH 45-55 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 1500 FT
AGL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT KGAG/KWWR...WHERE UP TO 40
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE SFC AND 1500 FT. WIND
SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z.

A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE WIND SHIFT PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE WIND SHIFT WILL
APPROACH KOKC/KOUN/KLAW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/

UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING.

DISCUSSION...
IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO LOWER VALUES
THAN HAD BEEN IN THE PACKAGE GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE SEEN
ON THE 12Z OUN... AMA AND MAF SOUNDINGS. FWD MOISTURE DEPTH WAS A
LITTLE DEEPER ALTHOUGH THERE IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD STILL MIX OUT
SOME AND THAT TRAJECTORY WOULD BE MOSTLY INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HAVE GONE WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE RAP FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
STILL WORRY THAT THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AND WILL CLOSELY
WATCH TRENDS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE IS
WORKING UP THROUGH THE GAP IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK NORTH OF DEL
RIO AND UP THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... BUT EVEN THE DEL RIO
SOUNDING WOULD MIX MOISTURE OUT SOME ONCE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE 60S. WITH THIS RAP DEWPOINTS... RH VALUES LOWER
SUFFICIENTLY TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING SO HAVE DONE THAT TO
INCLUDE LAWTON AND MUCH OF OKC. AGAIN... WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE
TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY.

/SPEG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES 15-19Z. THESE GUSTS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z.

NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT MANY
LOCATIONS. ONLY MENTIONED IT AT KPNC WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

TODAY WILL BE A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL. UPGRADED THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING AS THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODEL GUIDANCE
HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE.

TONIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS COLD. A DRY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 AM.

SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED WARM THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HEATING...EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN
TODAY AS THERE DOES NOT TO BE ANY COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE
OLD FRONT AS THERE COULD BE A SIGNFICANT SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MODELS DEPICTED QPF ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO 1600 J/KG AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7 TO 8 DEG/C. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTED THIS
INSTABILITY STAYING ELEVATED IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL REPORTS WITH STORMS. A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE
INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. SPC DAY3 MARGINAL RISK HANDLES THIS
SITUATION VERY WELL. EXACT TIMING...LOCATIONS...AND EVOLUTION OF
STORMS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE GREATEST STORM
CHANCES...20 TO 40 PERCENT...NORTHEAST OF A WOODWARD TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO DURANT LINE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER IS
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO STILLWATER
LINE WHERE LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES...GENERALLY 12 TO 20
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
AREA...SO EXPANSION OF THE WARNING AREA COULD OCCUR. THE STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

SUNDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS AND
LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST. 20 FT WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY STAY BELOW 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST...THOUGH NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
COULD BRIEFLY BE NEAR MET NEAR THE WOODWARD...CLINTON...AND
HOBART AREAS.

MONDAY...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING
SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY AGAIN ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

MBS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 47 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 70 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 70 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 51 70 48 72 / 0 0 0 10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>026-
033>038.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085.

26/10/10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1040 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING.

.DISCUSSION...
IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO LOWER VALUES
THAN HAD BEEN IN THE PACKAGE GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE SEEN
ON THE 12Z OUN... AMA AND MAF SOUNDINGS. FWD MOISTURE DEPTH WAS A
LITTLE DEEPER ALTHOUGH THERE IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD STILL MIX OUT
SOME AND THAT TRAJECTORY WOULD BE MOSTLY INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HAVE GONE WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE RAP FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
STILL WORRY THAT THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AND WILL CLOSELY
WATCH TRENDS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE IS
WORKING UP THROUGH THE GAP IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK NORTH OF DEL
RIO AND UP THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... BUT EVEN THE DEL RIO
SOUNDING WOULD MIX MOISTURE OUT SOME ONCE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE 60S. WITH THIS RAP DEWPOINTS... RH VALUES LOWER
SUFFICIENTLY TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING SO HAVE DONE THAT TO
INCLUDE LAWTON AND MUCH OF OKC. AGAIN... WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE
TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY.

/SPEG

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES 15-19Z. THESE GUSTS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z.

NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT MANY
LOCATIONS. ONLY MENTIONED IT AT KPNC WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/

TONIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS COLD. A DRY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 AM.

MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER IS
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

MONDAY...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING
SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY AGAIN ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

MBS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 52 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 47 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 51 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 43 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 75 47 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 70 51 72 46 / 0 0 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>026-
033>038.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

728 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH ITS TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...TO ONE INCH. A RETURN TO COLDER...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD AND KIPT HAVE BEEN SURPASSED OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND ANOTHER DEG F OR SO SHOULD BE TACKED ON TO THESE
PRIOR TO 21Z.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE: KBFD - 53F IN 1983...KAOO - 63F
SET IN 1955....63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954...AND KMDT - 68F IN 1976.
WE`VE ALREADY ECLIPSED TWO OF THEM...KAOO MAY BE TIED BASED ON THE
18Z HRRR. HOWEVER...KMDT SEEMS SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF
REACH WITH A FCST HIGH THERE OF JUST 61-62F.

SUB 995 MB SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE OR
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT AND FAST MOVING NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A DWINDLING RIBBON OF 0.75 PWATS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND UP TO ONE OR
TWO TENTHS OF RAINFL ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LESS QPF HEADING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
AND SUSQ REGION.

A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE. MINS EARLY MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE L30S NW...TO THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE SE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LLVL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH A
VERY LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE OF JUST 2 KFT AGL AT KBFD.

850 MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO -3 OR -4C BEHIND THIS /INITIAL/
CFRONT...AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON....TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL VARY FROM THE U30S NEAR KBFD...TO THE MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS REGION...AND L-M 50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

WESTERLY WINDS COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 20S MONDAY...WHILE WILL
ADD A LITTLE CHILL TO THE OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER FRONT...
LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30 POP.

THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.

FOR NOW...LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR TUE MORNING.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPS ABOVE 32 ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THIS BASED ON WWD GRAPHICS NOT HAVING ANY ZR OR SNOW IN
FCST...ALONG WITH FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THAT 12Z MODELS
HAVE LOW TRACKING WEST OF OUR AREA. THUS HAVE JUST RAIN SHOWERS
IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER 12Z WED. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. 558 THICKNESS FCST TO STAY SE OF
OUR AREA. IF THE 558 THICKNESS WAS TO GET THIS FAR NORTH...THEN
ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.

QPF NOT FCST TO BE THAT HIGH...THUS NOT EXPECTING FLOODING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A
LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE IS MUCH
STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME GEFS
MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG RANGE...UNLESS
THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH A PAIR/TRIPLET
OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL. DID ADD IN SOME SMALL CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE LAST SECOND HERE. ENJOY THE
MILD EVENING TONIGHT. WE GET AN EXTRA DAY IN FEB THIS YR.
THIS LOOKING TO BE A MILD DAY TOO.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE WIND-RELATED. A CORE OF
VERY STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TONIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO LLWS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD FAVOR MORE LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 10Z-15Z...ACCOMPANIED
BY A GUSTY SHOWER IN MOST LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY ALSO ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WHERE PLUME OF
MOISTURE ALONG FRONT ASCENDS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE MTNS THRU ARND MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE SHOULD BRING BREAKING CLOUDS
AND A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS DURING MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...WINDY. AM RAIN/SNOW/REDUCED CIGS POSS...MAINLY KBFD/KJST.

THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

FRI...SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW...MAINLY SOUTH.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

944 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN OHIO VALLEYS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE
WILL YIELD VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH EVEN THOSE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS. IF ANYTHING...THE
MESOSCALE MODELS...THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR HAVE BACKED EVEN FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...SO THE ADVERTISED 20-30 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES SEEM TO BE IN ORDER. OTHERWISE...MIXING REMAINS QUITE
ROBUST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENING...AND PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED...ESP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AS SUCH...MIN TEMPS WERE
INCREASED AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THESE AREAS...BRINGING THEM A SOLID 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. (EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO COOL). GREATER COOLING
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE REALIZED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...MANY OF WHICH
ARE SHELTERED FROM SW FLOW. AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD BRING HOWLING
WINDS TO A PART OF THE NC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT WARM ADVECTION
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MAINLY A CONCERN FOR THE HIGH PEAKS AND RIDGE
TOPS...OR ABOVE 5000 FEET OR SO. GUSTS TO OVER 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
IN THOSE AREAS. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE EXPECTED GUSTS IS
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...SO THE HWO MENTION WILL BE
CONTINUED.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH LARGELY WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
FOR THE SHORT RANGE...BUT SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW THE
SLOWEST MODEL...WHERE THE 00Z RUN WAS THE FASTEST. THE CANADIAN IS
THE FASTEST OF ALL...WITH THE GFS/NAM AND SREF ALL ON THE SLOWER
SIDE. THIS TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE ALSO SHOWN IN THE LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARD OR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS OR WELL EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THIS MEANS
SPREADING CHANCE POP ACROSS ALL BUT THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY...
LIKELY POP WEST AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIKELY
ALL LOCATIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING TO NON-MENTIONABLE POP
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME NW FLOW PRECIP LINGERING
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS EITHER.

THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
THERE IS ALSO GOOD FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH...IF ANY...
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SHEAR. RIGHT
NOW...THE GFS IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH ACTUAL...ALBEIT WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH
HELICITY VALUES. THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE MUTED...EVEN AMONG THE
SLOWER RUNS. THEREFORE...A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
HWO FOR NOW. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WELL. HOPEFULLY THE GUIDANCE WILL COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SOON PROVIDING BETTER CLARITY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE HEELS OF A DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT
BENEATH AN ASSOCIATED H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE CAROLINAS.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SPILL INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY ON THURSDAY BENEATH FLATTENED RIDGING ALOFT.
MEANWHILE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DIVERGE REGARDING
THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS RATHER DEEP/PROGRESSIVE
LOW TRACK...WHICH IS NOW ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I20 CORRIDOR IN A
MILLER TYPE A CONFIGURATION. THE CMC HAS A CLOSED/PROGRESSIVE
SURFACE CYCLONE ON THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ITS TRACK IF MUCH
FARTHER NORTH OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE
LEAST ROBUST WITH AN OPEN WAVE WASHING OUT OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
WITHIN SAID GUIDANCE DIVERGENCE COULD BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE ECMWF FAVORING A POSSIBLE WINTER WX EVENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WHILE THE
GFS/CMC ARE WARMER WITH ANY WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY RESERVED FOR THE
MTNS AND LOCALES ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

BEYOND THAT...ALL HAVE A BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A BACK DOOR WEDGE FRONT POSSIBLY
SURGING SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE APPS ON SATURDAY AS SAID SURFACE
HIGH TEMPORARILY ANCHORS OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS SUGGESTED...THIS
LOOKS RATHER SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER H5 IMPULSE RACES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST YIELDING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE FLATTENED H5 RIDGING LOOKS TO
PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS A RESULT...MODELS SEEM TO
CONVERGE ON THE FACT THAT THE A FORE MENTIONED ANCHORED HIGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TO START THE WORK WEEK WHERE UPPER FLOW IS MORE SUPPORTIVE...ALL
LEADING TO RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

AS FOR THE FCST ITSELF...FAVORED A MORE GFS/CMC SOLUTION REGARDING
THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC AS
OF LATE. THEREFORE DID INCLUDE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE MTNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A NARROW BAND OF
SNOWFALL EASTWARD ALONG I40...WITH ALL RAIN ELSEWHERE. POPS ARE
REMOVED BY MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY OVER THE LOW TERRAIN...AND EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS YIELDING A COMPLETELY DRY
FCST FOR SATURDAY INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WHERE POPS SLOWLY RAMP BACK UP
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE MODERATION
COMMENCES GIVEN RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FCST.

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A DRY AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THEREFORE BE THE WIND...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING/WEAKENING COLD
FRONT...AND LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THE JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW-END LLWS
CRITERIA... MAINLY AT KCLT FROM 09-15Z. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SSW AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE
PERIOD. OCCL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD
THE NW AT KAVL...BUT MORE TOWARD THE W AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...FROPA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS COULD OCCUR...ESP AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU
TUE NIGHT OR WED...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE
AFTERWARD...A SECOND SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS AT THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

529 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. I-35 SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 06Z-07Z PERIOD AND THEN DOWN TO
IFR 09Z-10Z. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
KDRT WILL NOT SEE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP UNTIL AROUND 10Z THEN
DOWN TO IFR BY 12Z-13Z. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1-3 MILES. AFTER 12Z COULD EVEN SEE SOME VSBYS LESS THAN
ONE MILE. VSBYS AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z-16Z AND ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS 18Z-20Z. CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON THE LONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
S/SE 8-10 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z THEN DECREASE TO 4-8 KNOTS. AFTER 16Z
S/SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 17Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD
WITH A LATEST POSITION THROUGH ABILENE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WITH THIS FRONT IS ALREADY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG PRODUCTION
OVERNIGHT AND WILL FORECAST PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG OUT FOR NOW
AND LATER SHIFTS CAN INTRODUCE IT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE.

ANY POTENTIAL FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS WILL MIX-OUT BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
80S WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS WILL
BE HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL FOG.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB AND THE NAM/ECMWF IS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE TO NO QPF WITH THE FROPA. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER CAP AND
THEREFORE IS PROGGING SOME QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20/30
POPS MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN AREAS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 35 KNOTS. THESE VALUES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE WITH POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE
EASTERN AREAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE TEMPERATURES AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE A DRY FROPA. MODELS
THEN SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT-FLOW BY SUNDAY
WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW ON DAY 7 AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS UPPER PATTERN IS
LOW THIS FAR OUT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 78 62 76 46 / 0 - 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 78 61 77 44 / 0 - 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 79 61 78 46 / 0 0 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 76 60 73 43 / 0 0 10 20 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 82 59 82 49 / 0 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 77 61 73 43 / 0 0 10 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 79 60 79 44 / 0 0 10 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 78 61 78 45 / 0 - 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 79 62 77 46 / - 10 - 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 79 62 77 47 / 0 0 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 81 62 79 48 / 0 0 10 20 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT

NWS SEATTLE WA

900 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING FOR
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S OVERNIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN WA. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK AS A
WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES. THE COAST WILL SEE RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN
SPREADING TO THE INTERIOR BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 2500 FT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
PASSES. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER ON MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
AND THE FLOW FLIPS TO OFFSHORE. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ON
MON NGT...AND AN ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUE.
IT WILL BEHAVE TYPICALLY AS IT WILL BE PRECEDED BY WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP AND E/SE GRADIENTS...THEN FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATER TUE WITH A PICKUP IN SW GRADIENTS...WIND...AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS. HIGH PRES REBOUNDS QUICKLY ON WED...WITH SOME DRY WEATHER
LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING IS THE MAIN REASON FOR KEEPING A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WED FORECAST...BUT SOME DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
AROUND THAT TIME.

MODELS THEN AGREE AT DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT AROUND
150W FROM THU INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. THIS SHOULD DIRECT
AN ACTIVE AND SOMETIMES STORMY SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PAC
NW...WITH RAIN STARTING THU AND CONTINUING INTO FRI AND BEYOND.
HANER

.HYDROLOGY...SEDIMENTATION IN THE WHITE RIVER HAS REDUCED THE
RIVER`S ABILITY TO CARRY MODERATE FLOWS OF WATER WITHOUT CAUSING
FLOODING PROBLEMS NEAR PACIFIC. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD IMPACTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT...BUT THE RIVER IS NEAR THE LEVEL
WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH. A SLOW MOVING WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. CIGS
CURRENTLY VFR TO MVFR...WITH MVFR MORE LIKELY IN RAIN. CIGS EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CURRENT VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN AROUND 2K FT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AM BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK TO VFR. RAIN REMAINING IN FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID-MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT.
SMR

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WESTERLY SWELL
AROUND 10 FEET CONTINUE IN COASTAL WATERS...THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE COAST AND AT
THE WEST ENTRANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE EAST
ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH GALES POSSIBLE WILL ARRIVE AROUND
TUESDAY. CHB/SMR

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF PACIFIC IN
PIERCE COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.

GALE WATCH COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
956 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our weather pattern will become breezy at times over the weekend
with chances for rain in the lowlands and accumulating snow in the
mountains. Several fast moving weather systems will move through
the Pacific Northwest next week bringing chances for precipitation
and periods of breezy winds.

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Infrared satellite shows an unorganized upper
trough moving into the region. For tonight the latest 00z runs of
the GFS and NAM as well as the HRRR show the bulk of the rain
falling over the palouse, Lewiston area, Blue Mountains, and Camas
Prairie. This is due to a vort max near the central Oregon coast
that will track into SE Washington overnight. Models are showing
around a tenth to a quarter inch of rain in this area. The
Cascade crest will also see rain and high mountain snow tonight as
moist upslope flow occurs. Elsewhere, weak forcing and a continue
increase in moisture will lead to a chance of light rain. Rain and
high mountain snow will increase over the Idaho Panhandle early
Saturday when the trough axis swings inland and upslope flow
increases. The forecast has been updated to adjust precipitation
chances tonight based on above reasoning. JW

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...A weather disturbance passing through SE Washington
tonight will bring -RA to KPUW/KLWS/KCOE with KGEG/KSFF expected
to be on the northern fringes. This rain will moisten the boundary
layer with S-SW winds expected to advect in stratus into
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE TAF sites. KPUW will also see lowering CIGS due to
more persistent rain as well as upslope winds. A mix of MVFR and
IFR CIGS are expected. Winds will pick up Saturday afternoon with
downslope flow off the Cascades bringing drying to the boundary
layer result in rising CIGS over Eastern Washington and north
Idaho. JW

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 52 35 48 33 46 / 50 40 0 70 60 10
Coeur d`Alene 39 50 35 48 34 46 / 60 80 10 70 70 30
Pullman 42 52 34 49 35 47 / 70 70 10 50 60 20
Lewiston 46 57 39 54 38 52 / 80 50 0 50 60 20
Colville 37 53 33 46 32 46 / 30 30 10 70 60 20
Sandpoint 37 47 34 45 33 43 / 50 80 10 70 70 30
Kellogg 36 44 33 43 32 40 / 60 100 20 50 80 60
Moses Lake 40 58 36 53 34 52 / 30 10 0 50 20 10
Wenatchee 38 56 37 48 32 48 / 40 10 10 50 20 10
Omak 36 53 33 44 30 44 / 30 10 10 60 20 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

459 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SWEEPING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE REPLACED BY A COLDER MORE SEASONABLE ONE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER...STRONGER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MILD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS REGION AS WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM`S LOW
WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE UNITED STATES-CANADIAN
BORDER THIS MORNING SWEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SHOWERS. LOOKING AT A DRY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
HOWEVER WILL HAVE BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH.

TEMPERATURES ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
RANGING FROM THE AROUND 30 DEGREES INTO UPPER 40S. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY DEPENDENT IS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM AND DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED. WHILE IN OTHER
AREAS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WHICH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UP. STARTED WITH OBSERVATIONAL TEMPERATURES AND BLENDED THAT INTO
GUIDANCE TO CREATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. WILL HAVE
QUITE THE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING SO READINGS WILL FALL MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH A MORE DIURNAL CURVE
OF TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MOVING THE MID WEEK
LOW PRESSURE FROM OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MORE TO
COME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A MEAN
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT...A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -23C RANGE.
THESE H850 TEMPS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS COLDER THAN NORMAL ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z GEFS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THU MORNING ACROSS THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/WRN DACKS...BUT OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE RIDGING IN FROM S/SW ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH COLD
AND DRY WX. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO M20S NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION TO U20S TO M30S MAINLY FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH
AND EAST.

THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL INTO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-
90 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS VARIABLE
ON HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FCST FRI. THE TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED TO SEE IF HIGHER POPS
ARE NEEDED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH WITH ZERO
TO 5 BELOW READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ON FRI BASED
ON A SUPERBLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PACK TO L30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END FRI NIGHT...AND
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH W/NW FLOW
PERSISTING ALOFT. ANOTHER CYCLONE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER OPENS THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS FRI NIGHT...AND MID 20S TO M30S ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN
CONUS WITH THE UPSTREAM SFC CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE.
THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE DISTURBANCE TOO FAR
TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE. SLIGHT CHC
POPS WERE USED FOR NOW FOR A BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPS CONTINUE THE TREND UPWARD TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

OVERALL...TEMPS AND PCPN LOOKS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRIOR TO NOONTIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU BTWN 13Z-17Z WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH
LINGERING BKN CIGS IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS INITIALLY...WITH JUST A FEW-
SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS AROUND. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT FRONT AND WEAK SFC
WAVE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT AT KGFL/KPOU WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS. THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS ARE AROUND 40
KTS...SO LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 13Z FOR THOSE TWO SITES. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE S TO SW AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF UNTIL THE LATE MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO W TO NW AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS AT
KALB IN THE EARLY TO MID PM...BEFORE BECOMING W TO SW AT 5-12 KT
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BASED IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW
DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...INITIALLY MAINLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1149 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MVFR ceilings from KGBG-KLWV northeastward this evening, and
include most of central IL terminals. VFR conditions to the south.
The area of low ceilings continues to steadily move eastward and
VFR ceilings should return to the area by 9-10Z. Brisk NW winds
15-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts to continue at 06Z, but will
decrease rapidly overnight. Winds to become W-SW less than 10 kts
by dawn, then increase to around 15g25 kts for late morning
through afternoon. A chance for precipitation will approach from
the north late in the period as a cold front approaches. At this
point, conditions look to remain VFR through 06Z.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton/Shimon
AVIATION...Onton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

104 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WREAKING HAVOC ON
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN REACHED AMONG MODELS ON BASIC SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...MANY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS AND STILL
WITHIN EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DESPITE BEING
WITHIN 48 HOURS OF PCPN ONSET. MOST OF THIS DISPARITY COMES FROM
FACT THAT MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND
WILL NOT BE SAMPLED FULLY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY. THIS
ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH
THEN EAST OUT OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND
INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES IS PROVING PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL MODELS.
WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ITS DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS AN ISSUE AMONG MODELS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT DEVELOPS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. FGEN FORCING WITH THIS ADVECTION PROCESS WILL
LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH TO BEGIN. AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVIER. COMBINATION OF SFC
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C WILL LEAD TO AREA OF
FREEZING RAIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. 12Z SUITE HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND ARE ONCE AGAIN
ADVERTISING A STRONG WARM SURGE THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.
GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN FASTER
TUESDAY. THESE LATTER MODELS ARE GENERALLY PREFERRED BUT THEY ARE
ALSO INDICATING A PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY
TUESDAY.

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME
OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TO GET MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND FULLY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS GIVEN COMPLEX
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND INTERACTIONS. STILL RETAINED ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WITH MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND DEPENDING ON FINAL TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS A NARROW
RIBBON OF ICE ACCUMS COULD COME CLOSE TO 0.20-0.25 INCHES.
AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT SOME TYPE OF HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY
GIVEN MIXED PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS
BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THIS PERIOD REMAIN MURKY GIVEN
MODEL DISPARITY BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WITH
WRAP AROUND AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.

STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W SHEARING DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE LAKES MAKING
RAPID EWD PROGRESS AND ON TOP OF THE KFWA TERMINAL. LAGGING BAND OF
POST FNTL SHRA MAY YIELD A VRY BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION
THERE TO START OTRWS PD OF MVFR STRATOCU FOLLOWS WITHIN LL CAA WING.

THEREAFTER FLW BACKS QUICKLY THROUGH LT MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
POTENT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DIGGING SEWD OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. EWD DVLPG WAA WING AHD OF
THIS SYS LIKELY TO SETUP JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS LT PD ALG
STALLED LL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THUS VFR CONDS SHLD RULE MID PD ON.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SW GRADIENT WINDS TO RAMP AGAIN BY MID MORNING
THROUGH LT AFTN W/SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...T

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

302 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...KEEPING VARIOUS CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL STAGES OF A
POTENTIALLY EXTENDED WARM-UP BEGIN LATE THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING SE ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP IMPACTS FROM A DEVELOPING
STRONG SFC LOW FOCUSED TO THE SE OF THE CWA. THE LES FORECAST IS A
BIT MORE MUDDLED AS THE THERMO PROFILE BELOW THE 4-5KFT INVERSION
FOR THE EAST HALF SHOWS MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ.
GIVEN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY HIGH-SLR
BUT LOW-QPF SNOWFALL FOR THE FAR NE CWA. SUBSTANTIALLY DRY LOW-
LEVELS UPSTREAM WILL MITIGATE LES ACROSS THE WEST.

LINGERING LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EAST...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF LES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. A SUBTLE EMBEDDED AXIS OF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INVERSION HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND BOOST LES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST ONCE AGAIN. WITH ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL IN PLACE...LOW-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SE ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BACK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY...LEADING TO A GRADUAL END TO LES. AFTER A QUIET DAY
FRIDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER
MI...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH HALF. THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP POSSIBLE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MIXED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SOME DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO UPPER MI HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT KIWD. MVFR CIGS AT
KCMX/KSAW MAY ALSO SCT OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
HOWEVER...FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW INTO THE AREA
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. AFTER FROPA THIS
MORNING...A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40KT AT KIWD/KSAW AND TO
ABOVE 40KT AT KCMX FOR A FEW HRS. COMBINATION OF -SHSN AND
SIGNIFICANT BLSN WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KSAW WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KCMX. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KIWD/KSAW MAY SEE BRIEF VLIFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND WITH VERY DRY AIR
HINDERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN WITH VFR BY LATE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-
003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ002-004-009-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-085.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ266-267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ248-250.

UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC/JLA
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1158 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016