Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/28/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

 137 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IN THE COAST
AND VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WARM-UP EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CREATING
WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY BRINGS
SOME COOLING TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS BUT SOME WARMING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. COOLER IN ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BRINGS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND
A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW THAT WE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
ONSHORE FLOW...AS THE SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY
ONLY 0.4 MB ONSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS 2.3 MB OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE KICKING IN AND THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENING A BIT TODAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS AT 1
PM ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AT 1 PM YESTERDAY...WHILE
THEY ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.

WITH THE TRENDING ONSHORE FLOW AND VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG FORMATION ABOUT 5 TO
LOCALLY 10 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
COULD DISRUPT THE FORMATION OF FOG SOMEWHAT...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION ALTOGETHER.

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...NUDGING THE RIDGE ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING
PREVAILING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD CREATE A LITTLE MORE
COOLING FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ACTUALLY GET A LITTLE WARMER. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LIKELY PRETTY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. A CONTINUED SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY RESULT IN
MORE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
MOMENTARILY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL HELP BRING
THE WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST ON THOSE DAYS...THEN ONSHORE
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY STARTS TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE COAST.

A COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
262100Z...FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR THE
COAST AFTER 03Z AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE A
SHORT DISTANCE ONSHORE AND BECOME A MORE UNIFORM DECK AFTER 08Z.
CIGS WILL BE AROUND 400-700 FEET MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FEET. IN
GENERAL VIS WILL BE 1-4SM AT THE COAST...BUT LOCALLY AS LOW AS 1/4SM
MAINLY ON COASTAL MESAS AND ALONG THE INLAND EXTENT OF FOG. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY 16-17Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...AREAS OF FOG WITH VIS 1NM OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 10 FEET MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST SURF WILL PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY. FOR SURF AND HAZARD
DETAILS...CHECK THE SURF FORECAST LAXSRFSGX...AND THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 915 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEKEND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
EVERYWHERE. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEK FOR A WARMING TREND
AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS INTO MIDWEEK. BUT A LOW WILL DIP SOUTH
ON THURSDAY FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

GRADIENTS TRENDING ONSHORE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED WITH
SOME DENSE FOG REPORTED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF VENTURA.
TEMPERATURES OFF TO A SLOWER START NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH THE MARINE INFLUENCE SO THE COOLING TREND IN THE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE SO FORECAST
CLEARING THERE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, ESPECIALLY AT THE BEACHES.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH TODAYS TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL NOT DO TOO MUCH EXCEPT USHER
IN A BURST OF NORTH WINDS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL SPIN A WEAK EDDY
UP WHICH WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST AND THE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO WELL MIXED FOR THE CLOUDS TO
FORM). THE NORTH FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH SOME CLOUDS UP THE NORTH
SLOPES. THERE WILL BE SUB ADVISORY WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR AND SBA SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE LOWEST HGTS AND THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS KDAG (STILL OFFSHORE FROM KBFL)

MORE RIDGING AND MORE NORTH FLOW ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL
AGAIN BE SOME SUB ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS (NO UPPER OR THERMAL
SUPPORT) THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LA COAST. IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

EARLY MONDAY THE RIDGE AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. THE NORTH
PUSH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE SBA SOUTH COAST. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AND THERE WILL BE BROAD SWATH OF 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGING PEAKS AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
THE NE. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CARRY THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP
A FEW MORE DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIKE TUESDAY JUST A LITTLE LESS SO. THE RIDGE
AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

A FAST MOVING TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL ZOOM INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. HGTS WILL FALL AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REVERSE. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WILL TURN
MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAYS READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1200Z

AT 0920Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 500 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1900 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES CELSIUS.

STRATUS AND FOG...WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT
THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRATUS WITH LIFR CONDS AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF WRN L.A.
COUNTY...VTU AND SERN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT STRATUS WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY. SOME
LLWS IS EXPECTED NEAR KSBA AS GUSTY NLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHC OF VLIFR CIGS AND VIS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VLIFR CONDS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THESE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE VLIFR CONDS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 05Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PD.


&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. FOR TODAY...WINDS MAY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...BUT
SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET...AT LEAST IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET.

EXPECT 10 FOOT SEAS TO REACH THE NORTHERN INNER WATER LATE IN THE
DAY. ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON...BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL BE
ABOVE THRESHOLDS.

MODERATELY LARGE SWELL WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AND
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SAT THROUGH SUN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.


&&

.BEACHES...25/900 PM.

HIGH SURF HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY AS A WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL CURRENTLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG ALL EXPOSED WEST AND
NORTHWEST FACING SHORES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
      ZONE 39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
      AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR
      ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BRUNO
MARINE...BRUNO
BEACHES...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
914 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WEAKER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal boundary and upper trof just off the N Coast this morning
and poised to move across Norcal mainly during the evening time
frame. Only change contemplated in the short term is the potential
for a thunderstorm or two over Shasta Co with FROPA and upper trof
passage. CAPE/instability progs suggesting the area from Shasta Co
into NErn Tehama/Wrn Plumas Co will have the potential for
convection during the evening. Forecast soundings indicate
potential for elevated instability with the high resolution
QPF/REF progs highlighting the Shasta Co area. Any thunder that
occurs should be brief/isolated and should move quickly with the
progressive nature of the trof.

In general...this system will weaken as it encounters the W Coast
ridge and moves over Norcal. This system and the Sun/Mon system
should have limited impacts.    JHM

Daytime highs this afternoon will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday, but still several degrees above normal. Models in fairly
good agreement that a weak trough will move inland this evening. The
current HRRR shows precipitation moving into our CWA after 4 pm. The
bulk of precipitation from this system continues to track north of I-
80. The Sacramento region will likely only see a few hundredths of
an inch while locations south of I-80 (Stockton- Modesto area) will
probably stay dry or just see trace amounts of rain. Valley areas
north of I-80 should range 0.05-0.25" with the higher amounts near
Red Bluff and Redding.

Mountain rain amounts will range 0.10" up to around a half inch
with the Shasta County mountains and Lassen Peak having the
highest amounts. Snow levels will stay above pass levels today and
then lower overnight between 5500-6500 ft north of I-80 by early
Saturday morning. However, any snow amounts that occur will be
very light...a dusting up to around an inch or two at the higher
peaks. Sierra travel on I-80 and Hwy 50 should see very minimal
impacts, if any. Precipitation should end by late morning on
Saturday giving way to another dry and warm afternoon/night.

The next weak system is forecast to move across NorCal on Sunday
with light rain hitting the coastal range and northern Sacramento
Valley by late Sunday morning. Precipitation will then spread
southward towards the I-80 corridor by Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning. Rain amounts will be lighter than the Fri-Sat
system and, once again, snow will be an inch at best for the
higher elevations north of I-80.

Ridging re-develops over NorCal Monday into Tuesday.
JBB

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected through the first half
of next week. A weak system will pass over far Northern
California Tuesday with light showers possible. Otherwise,
temperatures are likely to peak on Wednesday, with highs roughly 5
to 10 degrees above normal.

Models continue to indicate a stronger trough moving through
around Thursday of next week. While not a strong system, this will
likely be the first shot at region-wide precipitation in the next
week.

&&

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours, except MVFR conditions in
BR in the northern San Joaquin Valley through about 17z. A weather
system may bring local MVFR conditions over the mountains tonight
into early Saturday. Breezy southwest winds over higher terrain
this afternoon through tonight.

Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

 840 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IN THE COAST
AND VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WARM-UP EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CREATING WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...WHILE WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY BRINGS SOME COOLING TO THE COAST. COOLER IN
ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BRINGS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF FOG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH A FEW BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SHOW THAT WE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS ONSHORE FLOW...AS THE
SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY ONLY 1.0 MB
OFFSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS 2.9 MB OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE KICKING IN AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENING A
BIT TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TO BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER.

WITH THE TRENDING ONSHORE FLOW AND VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG FORMATION ABOUT 5 TO
LOCALLY 10 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
COULD DISRUPT THE FORMATION OF FOG SOMEWHAT...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION ALTOGETHER.

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...NUDGING THE RIDGE ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING
PREVAILING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD CREATE FURTHER COOLING FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ACTUALLY GET
A LITTLE WARMER. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LIKELY PRETTY SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY. A CONTINUED SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY RESULT IN MORE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY
MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
MOMENTARILY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL HELP BRING
THE WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST ON THOSE DAYS...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY STARTING TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE COAST.

A COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
261630Z...FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR THE
COAST AFTER 03Z AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE A
SHORT DISTANCE ONSHORE AND BECOME A MORE UNIFORM DECK AFTER 08Z.
CIGS WILL BE AROUND 400-700 FEET MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FEET. IN
GENERAL VIS WILL BE 2-5SM AT THE COAST...BUT LOCALLY BELOW 1SM
MAINLY ALONG COASTAL MESAS AND INLAND EXTENT OF FOG. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY 16-17Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...PATCHES OF FOG WITH VIS 1NM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
TONIGHT AND PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FEET MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST SURF WILL PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY. FOR SURF AND HAZARD DETAILS...CHECK THE
SURF FORECAST LAXSRFSGX...AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

 324 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WEAKER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Friday will start off similar to yesterday with some patchy fog
this morning followed by warm and dry weather into this
afternoon. Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday, but still several degrees above normal. Models in
fairly good agreement that a weak trough will move inland this
evening. The current HRRR shows precipitation moving into our CWA
after 4 pm. The bulk of precipitation from this system continues
to track north of I-80. The Sacramento region will likely only see
a few hundredths of an inch while locations south of I-80
(Stockton- Modesto area) will probably stay dry or just see trace
amounts of rain. Valley areas north of I-80 should range
0.05-0.25" with the higher amounts near Red Bluff and Redding.
Mountain rain amounts will range 0.10" up to around a half inch
with the Shasta County mountains and Lassen Peak having the
highest amounts. Snow levels will stay above pass levels today and
then lower overnight between 5500-6500 ft north of I-80 by early
Saturday morning. However, any snow amounts that occur will be
very light...a dusting up to around an inch or two at the higher
peaks. Sierra travel on I-80 and Hwy 50 should see very minimal
impacts, if any. Precipitation should end by late morning on
Saturday giving way to another dry and warm afternoon/night.

The next weak system is forecast to move across NorCal on Sunday
with light rain hitting the coastal range and northern Sacramento
Valley by late Sunday morning. Precipitation will then spread
southward towards the I-80 corridor by Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning. Rain amounts will be lighter than the Fri-Sat
system and, once again, snow will be an inch at best for the
higher elevations north of I-80.

Ridging re-develops over NorCal Monday into Tuesday.
JBB

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected through the first half
of next week. A weak system will pass over far Northern
California Tuesday with light showers possible. Otherwise,
temperatures are likely to peak on Wednesday, with highs roughly 5
to 10 degrees above normal.

Models continue to indicate a stronger trough moving through
around Thursday of next week. While not a strong system, this will
likely be the first shot at region-wide precipitation in the next
week.

&&

&&

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions across interior NorCal the next 24 hours,
except for isolated MVFR conditions in BR in the northern San
Joaquin valley from 13Z to 17Z. Also, local MVFR possible over
the mountains Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak system
moves through. Breezy southwesterly winds over higher terrain
tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 632 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ADIRONDACK REGION TONIGHT AND
LIKELY STALL BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THIS
WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE REGION DRY ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS LAST WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY. A STORM WILL TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KTYX RADAR DEPICTING SOME WEAK RETURNS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NORTHERN CWA. AT MOST...AREAS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER/NORTHERN
HAMILTON SEEING SOME FLURRIES. HRRR HAS GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT
SITUATION AND SHOWS LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN PRECIP. CURRENT
FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUTSIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A MILD CLOSE TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY...AS A
STRENGTHEN S-SW FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OF THE ADIRONDACKS. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TOWARD +5C YET EFFECTIVE MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS WILL FALL SHORT OF
THESE LEVELS...MORE LIKELY AROUND H925. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 50F WITH MOSTLY 40S ELSEWHERE.
WHILE NOT RECORDS...THESE VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NCEP MODEL SUITE IS KEYING ON A COUPLE UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG SKY COUNTRY AT THE TIME OF
THIS DISCUSSION. THEY ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING
THESE WAVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE
RESPONDS WITH LOWERING THE SURFACE PRESSURES AS QG FORCING ALOFT
INCREASES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES WEST AND NORTH OF
ALBANY TOWARD SUNRISE. A RATHER MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S.

MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS /12-15Z TIME FRAME/ WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. DEEPER
MIXING WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED WITH BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO
THE SFC. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 12 TO 25 MPH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40+ MPH RANGE.
DESPITE THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE M40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
WEST...AND GENERALLY MID 30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
TOWARD UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY MON NIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMS LOOK
LIGHT WITH A COATING TO FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 20S WITH A FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND A FEW L30S
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND SRN TACONICS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST BECOMES QUITE
COMPLICATED AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A SURFACE LOW TRACK EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
QUEBEC HELPING TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY END
UP BEING DRY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL HELP BRING A THICKENING CLOUD COVER IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE TRICKY EVEN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DETERMINING P-TYPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS NORTH AND WEST OF IT WITH
WARMER TEMPS TO THE SOUTH. INDICATING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH LOOKS TO START
INITIALLY AS RAIN.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME...WHEN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THAT THIS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS RATHER HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT STORM
TRACK...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON P-TYPE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER
EAST WITH THE STORM TRACK...WHICH WOULD BRING A COLDER SOLUTION FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OR TRACK RIGHT
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 88 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT/NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ACROSS MAINE. THE LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON THIS LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
AT THIS TIME...WHICH FAVORS A SURFACE LOW TRACK UP THE INTERSTATE 88
CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT/NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC WINTER
WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH PLACES
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN A 50-70% CHANCE FOR A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT SNOW AND/OR SLEET...WITH THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...BERKSHIRES
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS IN THE 30-50% PROBABILITY RANGE...AND FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT IN THE
10-30% PROBABILITY RANGE.

LIKELY POPS WERE INDICATED IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WITH MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK RELATIVELY QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND A
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WANT TO STRESS THAT WHILE THERE IS DEFINITELY A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER
POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT STORM TRACK AND P-TYPE...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON ANY POTENTIAL WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE DEVIATIONS TO THE POTENTIAL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...UNTIL THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STAY TUNED.

BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SWING THROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH COULD VARY FROM A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY TO A MORE POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY HELP DETERMINE THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WITH EVEN SOME LOW 50S POSSIBLE DOWN
TOWARDS POUGHKEEPSIE. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AND RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO UPPER TEENS/MID 20S IN
VALLEY AREAS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD RANGING FROM NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0 IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
COLD/WARM FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN VFR.


OUTLOOK...

SUN NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA.
MON NT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED NT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL MAIN STEM RIVER POINTS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUE TO
RECEDE.

EXPECT FLOWS TO CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.  AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 415 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY.
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION LEAVING US
WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...BUT BRISK
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING A MAINLY CLEAR SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EST...STILL LOOKING AT SOME UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
HOWEVER RADAR REFLECTIVITY`S HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST
HOUR...IMPLYING SNOWFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED.

THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THIS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH TO
FLURRIES OR ALL END TOGETHER BY 5AM OR SO....AT LEAST OVER EASTERN
TERRAIN. THE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...AND OCCASIONALLY A FEW FRAGMENTED BANDS
WILL WORK INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT BUT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN...SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS...
WITH LITTLE OR NONE IN THE VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE...RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS...WELL DOWN INT0 THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND EVEN INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE NUMBERS WILL DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH DAWN.

THE WIND HAS INCREASED AS THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES WERE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALBANY HAD A PEAK
WIND GUST TO 44 MPH AND NORTH ADAMS TO 46 MPH. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE RISE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AFTER SUNRISE.

WHILE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...INCREASED MIXING WITH HEATING WILL CERTAINLY KEEP
A STRONG BREEZE GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOK FOR THE WIND
TO AVERAGE 10-20 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
THESE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO AROUND -15C TODAY. NORMALLY SUCH TEMPERATURES
WOULD INSURE BELOW FREEZING HIGHS. HOWEVER GIVEN IT IS LATE FEBRUARY
WITH A SUN ANGLE UP TO 37 DEGREES AT ALBANY...AND THE EXCELLENT MIXING
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND FREEZING IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...
AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 20S...EXCEPT
15-20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES
ABOUT 10-15 COLDER THAN THIS VALUES...VERY COLD BUT NOT THAT CLOSE
TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WIND ONLY SLOWLY ABATE SINCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST WELL TO OUR SOUTH...KEEPING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL NOT ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
HOWEVER...LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...
TEENS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...SINGLE NUMBERS WELL
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. IT STAYS A BIT
BREEZY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO 35-40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES WILL BE SPOT ON FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE LEADING OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS
THAT EARLIER IN THE WEEK LOOKED TO HAVE BEEN AIMED AT OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS WILL PASS WELL NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT WELL NORTH OF I90 SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW INNOCUOUS SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL DUE TO
THE CLOUD AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...20S TO AROUND 30.

BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND
H850 TEMPERATURES SLATED TO RISE TO AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE 0C...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH 50-55 FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...40S EVEN NORTH. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CYCLONE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON
MOISTURE/STABILITY PROFILES AND THE DEGREE OF MIXING...WINDS COULD
END UP BEING QUITE STRONG AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SYSTEM
DOES LOOK QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH A FAST-MOVING OPEN WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT. SO MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF
ALBANY. TEMPS INITIALLY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN...BUT
WILL THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP LOOK TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH NO REAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE DUE TO A POWERFUL STORM
EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND TRACK ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE EVENTUAL TRACK LOOK TO BE JUST WEST OF
OUR REGION ONCE AGAIN...LIKELY PUTTING US ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH MAINLY RAIN AS PTYPE. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STORM TRACK AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY TRACK BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS COULD
MEAN MORE OF A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TIMING VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
AS WELL...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN IMPACTS FORM THE STORM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS MORE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO BOTTOM LINE IS THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIP IN A 6-12 HOUR TIME
WINDOW...BUT THE DETAILS IN TIMING AND PTYPE ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRETTY STRONG WINDS WERE BUFFETING MAINLY KALB THIS EARLY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS NOTED WITH THE 09Z METAR. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET HAS ENHANCED THESE WINDS BUT SHOULD LIFT
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...INCREASED MIXING WITH KEEP
THE GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST.  THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT KPOU AND KGFL
AND AROUND 30KTS AT KPSF AND KALB...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KTS AT TIMES.

UPSLOPE SNOWS WERE WEAKENING AT KPSF...BUT COULD NEVERTHELESS
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITY
IN SNOW (2SM) THROUGH 10Z.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH 10Z...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
(EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A VCSH WILL SUFFICE).

AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS CIGS SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AROUND 4 KFT AGL. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.


THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING PEAK...BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE
(BUT NOT COMPLETELY) TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TODAY WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

MOST...IF NOT ALL WATERSHEDS HAVE CRESTED AND WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 303 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN UPSLOPE WIND WILL
ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING AN END
TO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. IT WILL BE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BRISK AND CHILLY DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EST...RADARS HAVE DETECTED ENHANCED AREAS OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES LOOK TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WE
DID HAVE ONE TWITTER REPORT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN LENOX MA.

THIS UPSLOPE WAS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORT
WAVE...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 400 AM OR SO AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ANTICYCLONIC...DRYING THE COLUMN OUT.

UNTIL THEN...1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SNOW LOOKS TO ACCUMULATE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREENS...BERKSHIRES AND EVEN INTO THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

OTHER LESS IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE SNOWS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE DETECTED IN REMAINING AREAS...EVEN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK.

A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH (ESPECIALLY IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST VALLEY AREAS...
CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATER TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST
TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. IN ADDITION...W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE 15-25 MPH AT TIMES...MAKING IT FEELS EVEN COLDER. THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH MORE
CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS...THANKS TO SOME LAKE MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOT FAR FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CHILLY FOR FRI NIGHT...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START TO BE
RISING ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S FOR SATURDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT
NIGHT. THERE WILL A STRONG W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SO TEMPS WON/T BE QUITE AS COLD...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH OVERALL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

INITIALLY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN...SNOW OR A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AREAS...AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE BY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW FROM NW TO SE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES ON MONDAY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP.

FOR MON NT-WED NT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. THE REMAINING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
CLIPPER MAY REMAIN CLOSE BY...AS A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES EAST LATE
MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...ESP ACROSS CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN AREAS. THEN...A POSSIBLE STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK/S STORM...MAY TRACK TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OR GREAT LAKES REGION ON WED. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TRACK...AS THERE ARE SOME
12Z/25 GEFS MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION ON THE COLDER SIDE AND A
POSSIBLE SNOW OR WINTRY MIX SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE N/W TRACK...ALLOWING FOR A
WARMER/WETTER SCENARIO OVERALL...AFTER A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WED AM. WE HAVE SIDED WITH THIS OVERALL IDEA FOR
NOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX WED AM FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND RAIN
ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVE...TAPERING TO SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE STORM/S WAKE FOR THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE EXPECT FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHERE SUN AFTERNOON
TEMPS COULD REACH INTO THE 50S...IF NOT WARMER. FOR AREAS MAINLY N
AND W OF ALBANY...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S. FOR SUN
NT/MON AM...MOST TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...GENERALLY IN
THE 30S...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH REMAIN ABOVE 40.

THEN...MONDAY COULD STILL BE FAIRLY MILD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR VALLEYS...AND
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TEMPS POSSIBLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. MON NT/TUE AM TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TUE-WED...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR
NOW...SIDED WITH MILDER GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
FOR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND TUE NT/WED AM MINS MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COLDER ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COLDER...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF
THIS POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM.

FOR WED NT-THU...AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BUILDS BACK IN...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THU MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF THROUGH
10Z...WHILE ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES (INCLUDING KALB) THROUGH 10Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL (BECOMING VFR AT KPSF AFTER
13Z). LOOK FOR THE CIGS TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 13Z AT ALL
THE TERMINAL SITES. VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE UNRESTRICTED.

A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AT ALL THE TAF SITES...10-15 KTS...BUT GUSTING TO 20KTS
AT KPOU/KGFL AND 25KTS (OR A LITTLE HIGHER) AT KALB AND
KPSF.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AROUND DARK...BUT A GENTLE
BREEZE WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANYTHING
THAT FALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

MOST...IF NOT ALL WATERSHEDS HAVE CRESTED AND WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 115 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN UPSLOPE WIND WILL
ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING AN END
TO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. IT WILL BE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BRISK AND CHILLY DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EST...RADARS HAVE DETECTED ENHANCED AREAS OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES LOOK TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WE
DID HAVE ONE TWITTER REPORT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN LENOX MA.

THIS UPSLOPE WAS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORT
WAVE...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 400 AM OR SO AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ANTICYCLONIC...DRYING THE COLUMN OUT.

UNTIL THEN...1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SNOW LOOKS TO ACCUMULATE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREENS...BERKSHIRES AND EVEN INTO THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

OTHER LESS IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE SNOWS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE DETECTED IN REMAINING AREAS...EVEN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK.

A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH (ESPECIALLY IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST VALLEY AREAS...
CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATER TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST
TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. IN ADDITION...W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE 15-25 MPH AT TIMES...MAKING IT FEELS EVEN COLDER. THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH MORE
CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS...THANKS TO SOME LAKE MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOT FAR FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CHILLY FOR FRI NIGHT...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START TO BE
RISING ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S FOR SATURDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT
NIGHT. THERE WILL A STRONG W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SO TEMPS WON/T BE QUITE AS COLD...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH OVERALL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

INITIALLY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN...SNOW OR A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AREAS...AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE BY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW FROM NW TO SE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES ON MONDAY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP.

FOR MON NT-WED NT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. THE REMAINING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
CLIPPER MAY REMAIN CLOSE BY...AS A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES EAST LATE
MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...ESP ACROSS CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN AREAS. THEN...A POSSIBLE STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK/S STORM...MAY TRACK TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OR GREAT LAKES REGION ON WED. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TRACK...AS THERE ARE SOME
12Z/25 GEFS MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION ON THE COLDER SIDE AND A
POSSIBLE SNOW OR WINTRY MIX SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE N/W TRACK...ALLOWING FOR A
WARMER/WETTER SCENARIO OVERALL...AFTER A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WED AM. WE HAVE SIDED WITH THIS OVERALL IDEA FOR
NOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX WED AM FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND RAIN
ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVE...TAPERING TO SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE STORM/S WAKE FOR THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE EXPECT FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHERE SUN AFTERNOON
TEMPS COULD REACH INTO THE 50S...IF NOT WARMER. FOR AREAS MAINLY N
AND W OF ALBANY...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S. FOR SUN
NT/MON AM...MOST TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...GENERALLY IN
THE 30S...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH REMAIN ABOVE 40.

THEN...MONDAY COULD STILL BE FAIRLY MILD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR VALLEYS...AND
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TEMPS POSSIBLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. MON NT/TUE AM TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TUE-WED...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR
NOW...SIDED WITH MILDER GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
FOR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND TUE NT/WED AM MINS MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COLDER ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COLDER...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF
THIS POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM.

FOR WED NT-THU...AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BUILDS BACK IN...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THU MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF THROUGH
10Z...WHILE ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES (INCLUDING KALB) THROUGH 10Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL (BECOMING VFR AT KPSF AFTER
13Z). LOOK FOR THE CIGS TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 13Z AT ALL
THE TERMINAL SITES. VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE UNRESTRICTED.

A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AT ALL THE TAF SITES...10-15 KTS...BUT GUSTING TO 20KTS
AT KPOU/KGFL AND 25KTS (OR A LITTLE HIGHER) AT KALB AND
KPSF.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AROUND DARK...BUT A GENTLE
BREEZE WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANYTHING
THAT FALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

MOST...IF NOT ALL WATERSHEDS HAVE CRESTED AND WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Earlier clearing over the southeast half of the CWA has filled in
since late morning. However, back edge of the low cloud shield has
moved into west central Illinois this afternoon. Latest RAP guidance
suggests most of this should be out of the CWA by mid evening, with
a period of clear skies. However, an area of cirrus will move
through after midnight, associated with the upper wave currently
seen on water vapor imagery from the west tip of Lake Superior into
western Kansas. This will result in partly cloudy conditions as the
wave zips through overnight. Will need to watch for some fog
potential over east central Illinois, as there were 1-3 inches of
snow on the ground there this morning and some melting has taken
place. However, winds will be picking up after midnight, which may
help mitigate the threat. Currently, only the SREF is indicating any
visibility restrictions overnight. Will leave out mention for now
and continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Any patchy early morning fog in east-central Illinois early
Saturday morning should quickly dissipate as southwest winds crank
up into the 15 to 25 mph range. The gusty winds and ample sunshine
will go a long way toward melting any remaining snow pack in our
counties as well, with high temps expected to reach in the 50s
across the board.

The upper level ridge responsible for the warming trend will begin
to shift east of Illinois on Sunday, as the next in a series of low
pressure systems approaches the Great Lakes region. Despite
increasing afternoon clouds and slight chances of rain north of
Springfield to Mattoon on Sunday, strong south to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will provide our warmest day of the next week. Highs
will climb into the low to mid 60s. Thunder potential appears to
have lowered with the latest model suite, so no mention of thunder
was included ahead of the cold front later Sunday afternoon. Slight
chances of rain will linger into Sunday evening east of I-57, with
dry conditions after midnight when the cold front departs well to
the east.

A brief push of cooler air will arrive for Monday, but plenty of
sunshine will help high temps recover into the 50s, which are still
well above normal.

The extended models once again have come in with widely varying
solutions. The ECMWF is the only model to develop a deep 990mb low
passing across Illinois roughly along I-72 on Tuesday. It indicates
enough cold air N-NW of the low for several inches of snow W of I-55
Tue afternoon, with rain changing to snow east of I-55 into the
evening. A few thunderstorms would even be possible south of I-72 on
Tuesday. The GFS has a weak and more elongated surface low develop
and pass by to the south of Illinois on Tuesday, with precip mainly
south of I-72, and mainly rain until colder air arrives Tuesday
evening and changes rain to snow as precip ends. The Canadian GEM
has more of an open wave and surface trough pass across Illinois on
Tuesday, with precip starting briefly as rain early Tuesday then
changing to snow, with light accums possible. With such large swings
in each models solutions from cycle to cycle, along with differences
between the models, only minor changes were made to the forecast
from late Monday night through Tues night. The blended
initialization shifted the Likely PoPs on Tuesday to areas southeast
of Decatur, with high chance PoPs elsewhere in central Illinois.
The actual PoP numbers were relatively close to the previous
forecast in general. Precip type scenarios were tied to a warm surge
on Tuesday, then rain changing to snow from W to E Tues night, as
colder air arrives behind the low/surface trough. Changes to this
scenario are likely over the next couple of days before models start
to converge on a solution.

A break in the precip chances is expected for Wednesday as weak high
pressure passes across IL. However, another upper level shortwave
and surface trough are projected to pass over Illinois on Thursday.
There will be higher chances of rain or snow southeast of the
Illinois river, closer to the track of the upper vort max and jet
dynamics.

High temps will dip back below normal from Wednesday to Friday as
the waves bring brief shots of cooler air to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Ceilings are falling just below 3000 feet late this morning from
KSPI-KCMI as a stratocumulus deck spreads southeast. Am expecting
some modest improvement in heights by mid afternoon back into VFR
range. The overall cloud deck will continue to push east, and
should be out of the TAF sites by mid evening.

Continue to have some concerns regarding fog potential overnight
across east central Illinois, where snow is currently melting.
SREF visibility probabilities showing 30-40% chance of 1 mile
visibility between 09-12Z in this area, where the snow is
thickest. A couple things that may help mitigate it are an
increasing southerly wind which will set up after 06Z, as well as
some higher clouds accompanying an upper level trough. Right now,
will continue with prevailing MVFR visibilities at KCMI late
tonight, with TEMPO periods at KBMI/KDEC where there is less snow
cover. Any fog should burn off by 15Z with sunshine and winds
increasing to around 10 knots.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 308 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Earlier clearing over the southeast half of the CWA has filled in
since late morning. However, back edge of the low cloud shield has
moved into west central Illinois this afternoon. Latest RAP guidance
suggests most of this should be out of the CWA by mid evening, with
a period of clear skies. However, an area of cirrus will move
through after midnight, associated with the upper wave currently
seen on water vapor imagery from the west tip of Lake Superior into
western Kansas. This will result in partly cloudy conditions as the
wave zips through overnight. Will need to watch for some fog
potential over east central Illinois, as there were 1-3 inches of
snow on the ground there this morning and some melting has taken
place. However, winds will be picking up after midnight, which may
help mitigate the threat. Currently, only the SREF is indicating any
visibility restrictions overnight. Will leave out mention for now
and continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Any patchy early morning for in east-central Illinois early Saturday
morning should quickly dissipate as southwest winds crank up into
the 15 to 25 mph range. The gusty winds and ample sunshine will go a
long way toward melting any remaining snow pack in our counties as
well, with high temps expected to reach in the 50s across the board.

The upper level ridge responsible for the warming trend will begin
to shift east of Illinois on Sunday, as the next in a series of low
pressure systems approaches the Great Lakes region. Despite
increasing afternoon clouds and slight chances of rain north of
Springfield to Mattoon on Sunday, strong south to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will provide our warmest day of the next week. Highs
will climb into the low to mid 60s. Thunder potential appears to
have lowered with the latest model suite, so no mention of thunder
was included ahead of the cold front later Sunday afternoon. Slight
chances of rain will linger into Sunday evening east of I-57, with
dry conditions after midnight when the cold front departs well to
the east.

A brief push of cooler air will arrive for Monday, but plenty of
sunshine will help high temps recover into the 50s, which are still
well above normal.

The extended models once again have come in with widely varying
solutions. The ECMWF is the only model to develop a deep 990mb low
passing across Illinois roughly along I-72 on Tuesday. It indicates
enough cold air N-NW of the low for several inches of snow W of I-55
Tue afternoon, with rain changing to snow east of I-55 into the
evening. A few thunderstorms would even be possible south of I-72 on
Tuesday. The GFS has a weak and more elongated surface low develop
and pass by to the south of Illinois on Tuesday, with precip mainly
south of I-72, and mainly rain until colder air arrives Tuesday
evening and changes rain to snow as precip ends. The Canadian GEM
has more of an open wave and surface trough pass across Illinois on
Tuesday, with precip starting briefly as rain early Tuesday then
changing to snow, with light accums possible. With such large swings
in each models solutions from cycle to cycle, along with differences
between the models, only minor changes were made to the forecast
from late Monday night through Tues night. The blended
initialization shifted the Likely PoPs on Tuesday to areas southeast
of Decatur, with high chance PoPs elsewhere in central Illinois.
The actual PoP numbers were relatively close to the previous
forecast in general. Precip type scenarios were tied to a warm surge
on Tuesday, then rain changing to snow from W to E Tues night, as
colder air arrives behind the low/surface trough. Changes to this
scenario are likely over the next couple of days before models start
to converge on a solution.

A break in the precip chances is expected for Wednesday as weak high
pressure passes across IL. However, another upper level shortwave
and surface trough are projected to pass over Illinois on Thursday.
There will be higher chances of rain or snow southeast of the
Illinois river, closer to the track of the upper vort max and jet
dynamics.

High temps will dip back below normal from Wednesday to Friday as
the waves bring brief shots of cooler air to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Ceilings are falling just below 3000 feet late this morning from
KSPI-KCMI as a stratocumulus deck spreads southeast. Am expecting
some modest improvement in heights by mid afternoon back into VFR
range. The overall cloud deck will continue to push east, and
should be out of the TAF sites by mid evening.

Continue to have some concerns regarding fog potential overnight
across east central Illinois, where snow is currently melting.
SREF visibility probabilities showing 30-40% chance of 1 mile
visibility between 09-12Z in this area, where the snow is
thickest. A couple things that may help mitigate it are an
increasing southerly wind which will set up after 06Z, as well as
some higher clouds accompanying an upper level trough. Right now,
will continue with prevailing MVFR visibilities at KCMI late
tonight, with TEMPO periods at KBMI/KDEC where there is less snow
cover. Any fog should burn off by 15Z with sunshine and winds
increasing to around 10 knots.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Most of the CWA east of I-55 saw the lower level clouds scatter
out and skies were mostly sunny this morning, although cirrus
clouds were still streaming overhead. Another stratocumulus deck
was along and west of the Illinois River, and this will overspread
the forecast area over the next few hours. RAP model shows the
lower clouds and cirrus on the way out by late afternoon, and will
continue with the trend of decreasing clouds over the northwest
CWA late this afternoon. Zones/grids were recently updated to
address the sky trends, with minor updates to the temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

1032 mb high pressure over central Texas and ridging northward
across the eastern plains, will see the ridge over IL by 18Z/noon
today and into the Ohio river valley by sunset. This will keep
central and southeast IL dry today, though a northern stream upper
level trof over the Dakotas will dive southeast into MO and IL by
early evening. This will tend to bring mostly cloudy skies and
seasonably cool temperatures today. A large break in the low clouds
across the nw half of CWA and moving southeast toward I-57 early
this morning, should fill back in during the morning as upper level
trof approaches and diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus clouds develop.
WNW winds 7-15 mph this morning becomes WSW this afternoon. Still
have a couple inches of snow on ground over east central IL and kept
cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s there, while lower 40s
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Northern stream upper level trof/short wave to exit quickly
southeast into the mid MS and Ohio river valleys by 06z/midnight
tonight with clouds decreasing from nw to SE during the night in
its wake. Lows tonight of 25-30F with coolest readings over east
central IL.

Upper level heights rise over IL Saturday with upper level flow
become semi-zonal and allowing Pacific air to flow into IL this
weekend and bringing a nice warmup. Any remaining snow pack over
east central IL to likely all melt on Saturday with ample sunshine
with increasing SW winds 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph by
Saturday afternoon. Milder highs Saturday in the 50s, ranging from
lower 50s east central IL to the upper 50s west central IL. Lows
Sat night in the upper 30s and lower 40s as fair skies continue.

Low pressure emerging from the southern Canadian Rockies into the
northern plains Saturday evening, tracks eastward across central WI
and lower MI Sunday. Breezy SW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of
25 to 35 mph Sunday brings even milder temps with highs in the low
to mid 60s, despite increasing clouds as skies become mostly
cloudy Sunday afternoon. Continued to carry slight chance of
showers by mid/late Sunday afternoon over northern half of CWA
while better chances of showers and even isolated thunderstorms
over ne IL Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening closer to low
pressure moving across the central Great Lakes. This pulls a cold
front southeast across central IL sunday evening bringing 20-30%
chances of rain showers to central and eastern IL. Dry behind this
front as clouds decrease overnight Sunday night and Monday and
turning a bit cooler. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 30s.
Highs Monday 50-55F with mostly sunny skies and still above normal
for last day of February.

Big changes in the 00Z forecast models with track and speed of
strong low pressure ejecting from KS on Tue. Yesterday models where
taking low pressure ne across the ohio river valley Wed. Today the
GEM and ECMWF model take low pressure into central IL by 18Z Tue and
then into the eastern Great Lakes by 06Z/midnight Tue night. The GFS
model is much slower with low pressure over ne KS at 18Z Tue and
over central IL at 06Z/midnight Tue night. Will stay close to
blended initialization pops with some lean toward the more similar
ECMWF and GEM camps. Still dry Monday night over central/eastern
IL then think rain showers to develop from west to east during the
day Tue with isolated thunderstorms possible over southern IL.
Leaning toward faster GEM/ECMWF model would have cooler air
arriving quicker Tue night with rain changing to light snow
showers, especially after midnight Tue night over central IL and
just slight chances on Wed but GEM and ECMWF models have pcpn east
of IL by Wed. This storm track over central IL would keep better
chances of snow accumulations north of our CWA. Highs Tue range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to near 60F by Lawrenceville. Much
cooler Wed with brisk WNW winds and highs in mid to upper 30s
central IL and lower 40s in southeast IL. A clipper system moves
into IL from the northern Rockies Thu bringing a chance of
rain/snow and below normal highs in the mid to upper 30s central
IL and lower 40s southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Ceilings are falling just below 3000 feet late this morning from
KSPI-KCMI as a stratocumulus deck spreads southeast. Am expecting
some modest improvement in heights by mid afternoon back into VFR
range. The overall cloud deck will continue to push east, and
should be out of the TAF sites by mid evening.

Continue to have some concerns regarding fog potential overnight
across east central Illinois, where snow is currently melting.
SREF visibility probabilities showing 30-40% chance of 1 mile
visibility between 09-12Z in this area, where the snow is
thickest. A couple things that may help mitigate it are an
increasing southerly wind which will set up after 06Z, as well as
some higher clouds accompanying an upper level trough. Right now,
will continue with prevailing MVFR visibilities at KCMI late
tonight, with TEMPO periods at KBMI/KDEC where there is less snow
cover. Any fog should burn off by 15Z with sunshine and winds
increasing to around 10 knots.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 944 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Most of the CWA east of I-55 saw the lower level clouds scatter
out and skies were mostly sunny this morning, although cirrus
clouds were still streaming overhead. Another stratocumulus deck
was along and west of the Illinois River, and this will overspread
the forecast area over the next few hours. RAP model shows the
lower clouds and cirrus on the way out by late afternoon, and will
continue with the trend of decreasing clouds over the northwest
CWA late this afternoon. Zones/grids were recently updated to
address the sky trends, with minor updates to the temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

1032 mb high pressure over central Texas and ridging northward
across the eastern plains, will see the ridge over IL by 18Z/noon
today and into the Ohio river valley by sunset. This will keep
central and southeast IL dry today, though a northern stream upper
level trof over the Dakotas will dive southeast into MO and IL by
early evening. This will tend to bring mostly cloudy skies and
seasonably cool temperatures today. A large break in the low clouds
across the nw half of CWA and moving southeast toward I-57 early
this morning, should fill back in during the morning as upper level
trof approaches and diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus clouds develop.
WNW winds 7-15 mph this morning becomes WSW this afternoon. Still
have a couple inches of snow on ground over east central IL and kept
cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s there, while lower 40s
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Northern stream upper level trof/short wave to exit quickly
southeast into the mid MS and Ohio river valleys by 06z/midnight
tonight with clouds decreasing from nw to SE during the night in
its wake. Lows tonight of 25-30F with coolest readings over east
central IL.

Upper level heights rise over IL Saturday with upper level flow
become semi-zonal and allowing Pacific air to flow into IL this
weekend and bringing a nice warmup. Any remaining snow pack over
east central IL to likely all melt on Saturday with ample sunshine
with increasing SW winds 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph by
Saturday afternoon. Milder highs Saturday in the 50s, ranging from
lower 50s east central IL to the upper 50s west central IL. Lows
Sat night in the upper 30s and lower 40s as fair skies continue.

Low pressure emerging from the southern Canadian Rockies into the
northern plains Saturday evening, tracks eastward across central WI
and lower MI Sunday. Breezy SW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of
25 to 35 mph Sunday brings even milder temps with highs in the low
to mid 60s, despite increasing clouds as skies become mostly
cloudy Sunday afternoon. Continued to carry slight chance of
showers by mid/late Sunday afternoon over northern half of CWA
while better chances of showers and even isolated thunderstorms
over ne IL Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening closer to low
pressure moving across the central Great Lakes. This pulls a cold
front southeast across central IL sunday evening bringing 20-30%
chances of rain showers to central and eastern IL. Dry behind this
front as clouds decrease overnight Sunday night and Monday and
turning a bit cooler. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 30s.
Highs Monday 50-55F with mostly sunny skies and still above normal
for last day of February.

Big changes in the 00Z forecast models with track and speed of
strong low pressure ejecting from KS on Tue. Yesterday models where
taking low pressure ne across the ohio river valley Wed. Today the
GEM and ECMWF model take low pressure into central IL by 18Z Tue and
then into the eastern Great Lakes by 06Z/midnight Tue night. The GFS
model is much slower with low pressure over ne KS at 18Z Tue and
over central IL at 06Z/midnight Tue night. Will stay close to
blended initialization pops with some lean toward the more similar
ECMWF and GEM camps. Still dry Monday night over central/eastern
IL then think rain showers to develop from west to east during the
day Tue with isolated thunderstorms possible over southern IL.
Leaning toward faster GEM/ECMWF model would have cooler air
arriving quicker Tue night with rain changing to light snow
showers, especially after midnight Tue night over central IL and
just slight chances on Wed but GEM and ECMWF models have pcpn east
of IL by Wed. This storm track over central IL would keep better
chances of snow accumulations north of our CWA. Highs Tue range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to near 60F by Lawrenceville. Much
cooler Wed with brisk WNW winds and highs in mid to upper 30s
central IL and lower 40s in southeast IL. A clipper system moves
into IL from the northern Rockies Thu bringing a chance of
rain/snow and below normal highs in the mid to upper 30s central
IL and lower 40s southeast IL.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

A hole in the clouds moved over all the sites during the overnight
hours, but beginning at PIA around 13z, MVFR clouds around
2-2.5kft will move back into the area and effect all TAF sites
this morning. CMI will remain clear the longest before the clouds
arrive there around 18z. MVFR clouds will not clear until around
00z this evening and then skies should remain clear remainder of
TAF period. The clear skies tonight, combined with winds becoming
southerly, will produce fog over the areas where most of the snow
melts today. So have included 2sm BR at CMI and DEC and BMI, where
any snow cover should melt today and increase low level moisture
for overnight. For PIA and SPI, will just have a TEMPO group of
light fog. Winds will be northwest, then westerly most of the day,
then light and variable this evening as the ridge moves through
the area. Then winds will become southerly overnight.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 139 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2016

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING
OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY PROVIDING
QUIET WEATHER. A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED BUT THE RECENT SNOWPACK
WILL TEMPER THE WARMTH INITIALLY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 20S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND 50S SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

A MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM AS SYNOPTIC SNOW COMES TO AN END AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT.

DRIER AIR WAS WORKING SOUTH AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DONE BEFORE
00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWING LAKE EFFECT BANDS SETTING UP AROUND 00Z
BUT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING.
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BRING A
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LAKE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY RISE TO
AROUND 5-6KFT FOR JUST A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 4KFT REST OF NIGHT. TRAJECTORIES AND DGZ FAVORABLE
BUT INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED WITH DELTA T/S 13-14C. HRRR AND RUC13
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT ALL DAY SHOWING LIGHT BANDS DEVELOPING
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF. GIVEN RADAR SIGNALS ALREADY HAVE SIDED
TOWARD THE HIRES GUIDANCE. ARW-WRF HAS DONE WELL THIS SEASON WITH
LES BANDS AND BLENDED IT WITH LATEST RUC FOR FORECAST. BANDS SHOWN
BY MOST MODELS TO PENETRATE RATHER FAR INLAND AND DOWN TO CENTRAL IN
AND INTO OHIO WITH HELP FROM SHORT WAVE. THEREFORE CARRIED LOW POPS
ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN BORDER. STILL THINK ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH
OR LESS GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS BUT ISOLATED 2 POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTH IF A STRONGER BAND DEVELOPS IN BRIEF BUT PRIME WINDOW.

OTHERWISE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE IN SHORT TERM. POSSIBILITY OF
NORTHEAST BEING CLEAR AFTER SHORT WAVE WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5
KNOTS OR SO LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK. CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD OR
BELOW LOWER END OF MOS. ALSO KEPT HIGHS IN LOWER END FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

WARM UP WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INITIALLY
INFLUENCED BY RIPENING AND SLOWLY MELTING SNOWPACK. AM HESITANT TO
INCREASE TEMPS TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY WHERE 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
CURRENTLY RESIDES AND AT LEAST 2 THAW/FREEZE CYCLES TO OCCUR BEFORE
WE STAY ABOVE FREEZING STARTING SATURDAY. HAVE ALLOWED HIGHS TO
REACH AT LEAST 40 ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMEST READINGS IN FAR
SOUTH. WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO PULL UP AT LEAST SOME GULF
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF DEEPER MSTR WILL
PHASES IN TIME WITH THE SYSTEM TO WARRANT EXPANDED LIKELY OR EVEN
CAT POPS SO HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY UNTOUCHED. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPE...ALL LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE SEEN INTO SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

INFLUENCE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT AS MAIN FOCUS YET
ANOTHER WAVE IN A VERY ACTIVE FLOW ENTERS THE NW STATES AND THEN
BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS VARY ON HANDLING WITH ECMWF
BRINGING A OPEN BUT EVENTUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVING THROUGH
VS GFS CUTTING OFF A DEEP UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS MI. LOTS OF
SPECULATION WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS ON THE AREA...BUT GIVEN NOTED
DIFFERENCES...PERIOD OF INTEREST PAST DAY 5 AND CRITICAL THERMAL
PROFILES/SFC LOW TRACK ALL IN QUESTIONS...HAVE TO CONSIDER JUST ABOUT
ANY FORM OF PRECIP AND WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THIS JUNCTURE FROM
FROZEN/FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE NOT
LIKELY TO INCREASE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF INTEREST
BECOMES SAMPLED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

VFR CLOUDS WERE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE. WARMER AIR WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA.
A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING WAS ALREADY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO SCATTER OUT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 1137 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

LITTLE OF CONCERN TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF CLOUDS. MID LEVEL VORT LOBE
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN THE MID MS VALLEY BUT ANY ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION IS ALREADY PAST IA. UPSTREAM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SHORT WAVE
IS PRODUCING A FAINT REFLECTION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND WHILE THE
FORCING WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE AS IT REACHES IA EARLY FRI MORNING
STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. LIKELY
JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE
STRATUS TRENDS WITH PATCHY HOLES PASSING BY THIS EVENING...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGESTING MORE GENERAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL RIDGE CROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STAYED A TOUCH
OVER MOS WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT FOR AWHILE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

FEW CONCERNS IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. HRRR AND OTHER
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH A PORTION
OF FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BREAK UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL MODERATE AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TRANSITIONS EAST INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE H850
TEMPERATURES RISING TO +11C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH MIXING AT LEAST
TAPPING INTO 8 TO 10C AIR BY LATE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH DURING THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARING THE I80 CORRIDOR...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
MILD START TO THE DAY WILL HELP HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH.  ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35
TO 40 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DISPLACE THE SLIGHT COLD
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RENEWED WARM
UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE STATE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...MODELS CONTINUE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. TODAYS CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE TRACK
MAY BE FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO MODEL RUNS...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ADVERSE WINTER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY AND
MODELS INHERENTLY STRUGGLE TO REACH A CORRECT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME
RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE MORE
NORTHWEST DRIFT IN THE MODELS THE PAST 12 HOURS THOUGH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A MORE WOUND UP STORM THAN
THE EURO AT THIS TIME DUE TO FASTER INGESTION OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR...IT ALSO HAS STRONGER WINDS AND MORE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AXIS/STRENGTH
/TRACK IS CURRENTLY ALSO POOR. THE GENERAL TREND FOR BOTH THE
GFS/EURO OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY. WILL MENTION IN UPDATED HWO THIS AFTERNOON
AND PASS ONTO SUCCEEDING SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CLEARING STARTING TO
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. WAS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH THE CIGS...AS COULD SEE A LOBE OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE
WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 142 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ANTICYLCONIC OR WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AND HOLD MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
THE LOW 40S ARE POSSIBLE AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500
FEET WILL HOLD IN THE 20S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE OTHER THAN TO COOL OFF
THE RIDGES A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MORE SHALLOW. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO SHIFTED INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SPS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
NOON SINCE RIDGETOPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

ALTHOUGH BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WE WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9:30 FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR AND OB TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATED
ZONES...HWO...AND THE EXPIRATION FOR THE WSW WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
WINDS GOING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS MAKING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS ARE NOT ADVECTING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MEANING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOT MUCH COLDER. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PARTIALLY MELTING CAUSING SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND
DRIZZLE. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE PLACES ABOVE 2000 FT COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO THROUGH DAWN. FOR THAT REASON
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE PLACES ALONG WITH
RUNNING THE SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE PATTERN WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAKER...TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER KENTUCKY
WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAWN ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITH ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ALLOWING FOR LITTLE HELP
FROM SUNSHINE IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING...REACHING INTO THE MID
30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AGAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
ELEVATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE SOLIDLY REBOUND
AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...AND THE WINDS SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH...
ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN USED THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS GIVEN THE LIMITED TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE POP VALUES WERE KEPT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DECENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
EVIDENCE BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...SPREAD IN MODELS INCREASES QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY...LEADING
TO LARGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 60S.  GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 30 OR 35
MPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO.  IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE WET FUEL CONDITIONS...WE WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE RH SHOULD DROP FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.  WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A MODEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A CATEGORY.  RAIN SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN  TURNS TO A SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR A WARM UP
WILL BE ON TAP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.  SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD EASILY BE SHIFTED FORWARD OR BACKWARD IN
TIME AS MODELS SHIFT AROUND.  WHILE IT DOES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND IF WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS MORE
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO
SNOW CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW LATER
IN THE WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH BEYOND THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE LOW STRATOCU
IS LEADING TO CIGS IN THE LOWER END OF VFR OR MVFR RANGE. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE SOME AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

For aviation section.

UPDATE Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

The low levels continue to slowly dry out as surface high pressure
builds east from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Skies
cleared out in some areas overnight, but areas of low clouds are
returning from the north as of 08z. The main forecast issue for
today is how much low cloudiness to expect.

Model forecast soundings as well as the RAP 1000/850 mb layer mean
rh suggest that low clouds will not be quick to leave our area.
The deepest and most persistent moisture is forecast to remain
across the Evansville tri-state area today, where the forecast
will stay mostly cloudy. Elsewhere, there should be occasional
sunshine today, especially in the far western areas around kpof.
The mixed layer has become more shallow since yesterday, and there
is little evidence of any forcing for ascent. Therefore, no
mention of precip will be made. High temps will be only slightly
higher than Thursday, ranging from the lower to mid 40s in most
places.

Tonight will become mainly clear as dry southwest flow nudges the
low clouds out of our area. Low temps will average around 30
degrees.

Saturday and Saturday night will remain mostly clear as a 500 mb
shortwave ridge moves southeast across our region. Low-level
southwest flow will bring moderating temps, with highs reaching 60
in parts of southeast Missouri Saturday.

Sunday will be milder than Saturday, but the combination of strong
southwest winds and increasing high cloudiness could make it feel
cooler. The nam model has been showing 30 to 40 knots of wind in
the mixed layer (below 3000 feet). Surface wind gusts should be
within that range Sunday afternoon.

A low-amplitude 500 mb shortwave trough and its associated cold
front will move across our region on Sunday night. Moisture will
be limited, since this system is embedded in northwest flow. Will
maintain small rain chances, primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Models are struggling with the pattern in the long term. Basically
used the latest ensemble mean solutions incorporated with 50 percent
blend of our previous 2 official gridded forecasts. Should be dry
Monday, with our attention on a developing upper level system over
the Pacific NW, quickly headed for the Rockies. The models have this
strong wave somewhere over the central Plains by 12z Tuesday. Will
continue with slight chance PoPs for showers Monday night. Area wide
convective chances Tuesday. The GFS is notably slower than the
EC/GEM and other solutions. Will not completely discount it. Plan on
giving the other model consensus more weight. Continue PoPs for
rain/showers Tuesday night, though slightly lower, with diminishing
PoPs Wednesday.  Have little confidence in the models from Wednesday
night into Thursday. Will carry slight/low chance PoPs given the
00z/12z EC solutions show weak s/wv energy may generate some precip
(mainly rain, mix north 1/2?) during this time frame. Temps will be
a blend of latest MOS and previous 2 forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

VFR cigs will remain persistent through the day in the kevv/kowb
areas. In the kpah/kcgi areas, mvfr to vfr cigs around 3k feet
will be common. Clouds will depart our region late this afternoon
and early this evening.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE OTHER THAN TO COOL OFF
THE RIDGES A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MORE SHALLOW. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO SHIFTED INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SPS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
NOON SINCE RIDGETOPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

ALTHOUGH BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WE WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9:30 FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR AND OB TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATED
ZONES...HWO...AND THE EXPIRATION FOR THE WSW WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
WINDS GOING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS MAKING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS ARE NOT ADVECTING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MEANING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOT MUCH COLDER. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PARTIALLY MELTING CAUSING SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND
DRIZZLE. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE PLACES ABOVE 2000 FT COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO THROUGH DAWN. FOR THAT REASON
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE PLACES ALONG WITH
RUNNING THE SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE PATTERN WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAKER...TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER KENTUCKY
WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAWN ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITH ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ALLOWING FOR LITTLE HELP
FROM SUNSHINE IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING...REACHING INTO THE MID
30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AGAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
ELEVATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE SOLIDLY REBOUND
AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...AND THE WINDS SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH...
ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN USED THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS GIVEN THE LIMITED TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE POP VALUES WERE KEPT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DECENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
EVIDENCE BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...SPREAD IN MODELS INCREASES QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY...LEADING
TO LARGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 60S.  GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 30 OR 35
MPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO.  IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE WET FUEL CONDITIONS...WE WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE RH SHOULD DROP FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.  WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A MODEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A CATEGORY.  RAIN SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN  TURNS TO A SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR A WARM UP
WILL BE ON TAP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.  SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD EASILY BE SHIFTED FORWARD OR BACKWARD IN
TIME AS MODELS SHIFT AROUND.  WHILE IT DOES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND IF WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS MORE
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO
SNOW CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW LATER
IN THE WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH BEYOND THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEPART THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 700 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

ALTHOUGH BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WE WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9:30 FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR AND OB TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATED
ZONES...HWO...AND THE EXPIRATION FOR THE WSW WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
WINDS GOING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS MAKING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS ARE NOT ADVECTING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MEANING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOT MUCH COLDER. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PARTIALLY MELTING CAUSING SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND
DRIZZLE. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE PLACES ABOVE 2000 FT COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO THROUGH DAWN. FOR THAT REASON
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE PLACES ALONG WITH
RUNNING THE SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE PATTERN WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAKER...TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER KENTUCKY
WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAWN ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITH ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ALLOWING FOR LITTLE HELP
FROM SUNSHINE IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING...REACHING INTO THE MID
30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AGAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
ELEVATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE SOLIDLY REBOUND
AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...AND THE WINDS SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH...
ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN USED THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS GIVEN THE LIMITED TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE POP VALUES WERE KEPT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DECENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
EVIDENCE BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...SPREAD IN MODELS INCREASES QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY...LEADING
TO LARGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 60S.  GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 30 OR 35
MPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO.  IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE WET FUEL CONDITIONS...WE WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE RH SHOULD DROP FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.  WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A MODEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A CATEGORY.  RAIN SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN  TURNS TO A SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR A WARM UP
WILL BE ON TAP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.  SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD EASILY BE SHIFTED FORWARD OR BACKWARD IN
TIME AS MODELS SHIFT AROUND.  WHILE IT DOES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND IF WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS MORE
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO
SNOW CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW LATER
IN THE WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH BEYOND THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEPART THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

 530 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

The low levels continue to slowly dry out as surface high pressure
builds east from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Skies
cleared out in some areas overnight, but areas of low clouds are
returning from the north as of 08z. The main forecast issue for
today is how much low cloudiness to expect.

Model forecast soundings as well as the RAP 1000/850 mb layer mean
rh suggest that low clouds will not be quick to leave our area.
The deepest and most persistent moisture is forecast to remain
across the Evansville tri-state area today, where the forecast
will stay mostly cloudy. Elsewhere, there should be occasional
sunshine today, especially in the far western areas around kpof.
The mixed layer has become more shallow since yesterday, and there
is little evidence of any forcing for ascent. Therefore, no
mention of precip will be made. High temps will be only slightly
higher than Thursday, ranging from the lower to mid 40s in most
places.

Tonight will become mainly clear as dry southwest flow nudges the
low clouds out of our area. Low temps will average around 30
degrees.

Saturday and Saturday night will remain mostly clear as a 500 mb
shortwave ridge moves southeast across our region. Low-level
southwest flow will bring moderating temps, with highs reaching 60
in parts of southeast Missouri Saturday.

Sunday will be milder than Saturday, but the combination of strong
southwest winds and increasing high cloudiness could make it feel
cooler. The nam model has been showing 30 to 40 knots of wind in
the mixed layer (below 3000 feet). Surface wind gusts should be
within that range Sunday afternoon.

A low-amplitude 500 mb shortwave trough and its associated cold
front will move across our region on Sunday night. Moisture will
be limited, since this system is embedded in northwest flow. Will
maintain small rain chances, primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Models are struggling with the pattern in the long term. Basically
used the latest ensemble mean solutions incorporated with 50 percent
blend of our previous 2 official gridded forecasts. Should be dry
Monday, with our attention on a developing upper level system over
the Pacific NW, quickly headed for the Rockies. The models have this
strong wave somewhere over the central Plains by 12z Tuesday. Will
continue with slight chance PoPs for showers Monday night. Area wide
convective chances Tuesday. The GFS is notably slower than the
EC/GEM and other solutions. Will not completely discount it. Plan on
giving the other model consensus more weight. Continue PoPs for
rain/showers Tuesday night, though slightly lower, with diminishing
PoPs Wednesday.  Have little confidence in the models from Wednesday
night into Thursday. Will carry slight/low chance PoPs given the
00z/12z EC solutions show weak s/wv energy may generate some precip
(mainly rain, mix north 1/2?) during this time frame. Temps will be
a blend of latest MOS and previous 2 forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

VFR cigs will remain persistent through the day in the kevv/kowb
areas. In the kpah/kcgi areas, mvfr to vfr cigs around 3k feet are
returning as of 11z. There will likely be intervals of mvfr cigs at
all sites through the mid-afternoon hours. Low clouds will depart
our region late this afternoon and early this evening, followed by a
mid-level cloud deck above 10k feet. No vsby issues are expected.
Winds will be considerably lighter than the past couple of days as
high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Paducah KY

 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

The low levels continue to slowly dry out as surface high pressure
builds east from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Skies
cleared out in some areas overnight, but areas of low clouds are
returning from the north as of 08z. The main forecast issue for
today is how much low cloudiness to expect.

Model forecast soundings as well as the RAP 1000/850 mb layer mean
rh suggest that low clouds will not be quick to leave our area.
The deepest and most persistent moisture is forecast to remain
across the Evansville tri-state area today, where the forecast
will stay mostly cloudy. Elsewhere, there should be occasional
sunshine today, especially in the far western areas around kpof.
The mixed layer has become more shallow since yesterday, and there
is little evidence of any forcing for ascent. Therefore, no
mention of precip will be made. High temps will be only slightly
higher than Thursday, ranging from the lower to mid 40s in most
places.

Tonight will become mainly clear as dry southwest flow nudges the
low clouds out of our area. Low temps will average around 30
degrees.

Saturday and Saturday night will remain mostly clear as a 500 mb
shortwave ridge moves southeast across our region. Low-level
southwest flow will bring moderating temps, with highs reaching 60
in parts of southeast Missouri Saturday.

Sunday will be milder than Saturday, but the combination of strong
southwest winds and increasing high cloudiness could make it feel
cooler. The nam model has been showing 30 to 40 knots of wind in
the mixed layer (below 3000 feet). Surface wind gusts should be
within that range Sunday afternoon.

A low-amplitude 500 mb shortwave trough and its associated cold
front will move across our region on Sunday night. Moisture will
be limited, since this system is embedded in northwest flow. Will
maintain small rain chances, primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

Models are struggling with the pattern in the long term. Basically
used the latest ensemble mean solutions incorporated with 50 percent
blend of our previous 2 official gridded forecasts. Should be dry
Monday, with our attention on a developing upper level system over
the Pacific NW, quickly headed for the Rockies. The models have this
strong wave somewhere over the central Plains by 12z Tuesday. Will
continue with slight chance PoPs for showers Monday night. Area wide
convective chances Tuesday. The GFS is notably slower than the
EC/GEM and other solutions. Will not completely discount it. Plan on
giving the other model consensus more weight. Continue PoPs for
rain/showers Tuesday night, though slightly lower, with diminishing
PoPs Wednesday.  Have little confidence in the models from Wednesday
night into Thursday. Will carry slight/low chance PoPs given the
00z/12z EC solutions show weak s/wv energy may generate some precip
(mainly rain, mix north 1/2?) during this time frame. Temps will be
a blend of latest MOS and previous 2 forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

VFR cigs will remain persistent through the day in the kevv/kowb
areas. In the kpah/kcgi areas, expect occasional cigs in the vfr
category. There will likely be short intervals of mvfr cigs at all
sites, especially during the midday and afternoon hours. Low
clouds will depart our region this evening, followed by mainly
clear skies. No vsby issues are expected. Winds will be
considerably lighter than the past couple of days as high pressure
builds overhead.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
WINDS GOING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS MAKING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS ARE NOT ADVECTING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MEANING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOT MUCH COLDER. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PARTIALLY MELTING CAUSING SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND
DRIZZLE. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE PLACES ABOVE 2000 FT COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO THROUGH DAWN. FOR THAT REASON
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE PLACES ALONG WITH
RUNNING THE SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE PATTERN WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAKER...TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER KENTUCKY
WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAWN ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITH ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ALLOWING FOR LITTLE HELP
FROM SUNSHINE IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING...REACHING INTO THE MID
30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AGAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
ELEVATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE SOLIDLY REBOUND
AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...AND THE WINDS SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH...
ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN USED THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS GIVEN THE LIMITED TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE POP VALUES WERE KEPT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DECENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
EVIDENCE BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...SPREAD IN MODELS INCREASES QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY...LEADING
TO LARGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 60S.  GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 30 OR 35
MPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO.  IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE WET FUEL CONDITIONS...WE WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE RH SHOULD DROP FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.  WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A MODEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A CATEGORY.  RAIN SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN  TURNS TO A SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR A WARM UP
WILL BE ON TAP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.  SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD EASILY BE SHIFTED FORWARD OR BACKWARD IN
TIME AS MODELS SHIFT AROUND.  WHILE IT DOES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND IF WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS MORE
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO
SNOW CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW LATER
IN THE WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH BEYOND THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

CIGS WILL BE IN THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING AS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOOK FOR
CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOR MOST
SITES. HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS THESE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-118-120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 931 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THEN
STALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...INCLUDING THE 00 AND
01Z HRRR MODEL SIM RADAR REF OUTPUT...WE INCREASED POPS FOR LATER
TNGT TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO INCORPORATE A BKN-SOLID LN OF FAST
MOVG SN SHWRS XPCTD TO MOVE EWRD INTO NRN ME FROM QB AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE BTV SN SQL PARAMETER SHOWS THE THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF SN RATES OVR NW ME WHEN THE LN INITIALLY CROSSES INTO
NW ME FROM ERN QB...WITH THE HRRR RADAR SIM RADAR REF SHOWING THE
LN GETTING INTO NE AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH LESS INTENSE
REF. MAX POPS AND SNFL (NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH) WERE GEARED
TOWARD THIS SCENARIO...WITH LESSER POPS AND SN AMTS S AND E OF NW
ME POPS DECREASE QUICKLY SUN MORN AS THE LN OF SN SHWRS BECOMES
SCT AND WEAKER ONCE THE FRONT GETS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AND
SLOWS DOWN... WITH THE FRONT XPCTD TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVR DOWNEAST
ME BY SUN AFTN.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS AND DWPTS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE LATE
NGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOW TEMPS POSTED AT 12Z SUN.

ORGNL DISC: A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...
WITH A COLD FRONT STARTING TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AN INCH OR LESS. ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...AFTER A
PARTLY CLOUDY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. COULD HAVE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SUNDAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH 10 TO 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO THE MID 20S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL SNOW IN
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO RISE ALL NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10F IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST
REGION. LITTLE PRECIP WILL FALL TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT JUST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ENDS UP
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...USING AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL MAJOR
MODELS...WILL TRACK THE LOW FROM INTO FORT KENT AND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN
THE RAIN-SNOW LINE MOVES NORTH OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK...WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH INTACT RATHER THAN CONVERTING TO A
WARNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE UP A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
NEARLY THE IMPACT OF THE LAST STORM. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA AS MEASURABLE SNOW AND
FROZEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TOWARDS
HOULTON.. RAIN WILL FINALLY ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
EXIT QUICKLY BY MIDDAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOW
30S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST. GOOD MIXING AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME FAIRLY HEFTY WIND GUSTS REACHING UP
TO 40 MPH.

THE NORTH-SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S FOR BANGOR TO SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW COMPLEX IN HUDSON`S BAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. IT`S UNLIKELY TO BRING MORE THAN AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW AT THE MOST. WHEN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS WITH SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR IN PLACE TO ENSURE THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS AS SNOW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO MID 30S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUE NIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WED MORN AND AFTN. THE 12Z
EURO IS MUCH CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS IN TERMS OF STORM
TRACK, TAKING THE LOW OVER INTERIOR SRN NEW ENG AND THEN ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE. THE GFS IS A GOOD DEAL FASTER, SINCE IT HAS A
SOMEWHAT WEAKER UPR TROF DRIVING THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER NEG TILT UPR TROF WHICH ISN`T AS FAST TO PUSH EAST. KEPT
POPS LKLY TO DEF BETWEEN 12Z WED TO 00Z THU, BUT START SCALING
POPS DOWN AFTER 00Z THU, WITH MOST PRECIP CLEAR OF THE AREA BY
DAWN THURS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SN SHWRS THU PM AND NIGHT AS THE
BROADER UPR TROF ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, PSBLY ACCOMPANIED
BY A SFC TROF OR REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

AS FOR PTYPE WED AND WED NIGHT, ANYTHING FALLING BEFORE DAWN WED
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. EXPECT RA/SN LINE WILL MOVE NORTH DURING THE
DAY THANKS TO SE-S WINDS. HIGH WATER MARK OF THE RA/SN LINE
CURRENTLY PEGGED ALONG A MOOSEHEAD-PRESQUE ISLE LINE, WHICH AGREES
WELL W/ THE CURRENT STORM TRACK THINKING. EURO AND GFS AGREE ON AN
ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING TOWARD THE REGION FRI AND SAT, BRINGING
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF COLD
WEATHER. THE EURO SHOWS A STRONG LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
COD SAT AND SUN, WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER LOW MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH. FOR NOW, KEPT ANY POPS WELL OFFSHORE AND OUT OF OUR GRIDS,
BUT THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TONIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL CAUSE
IFR TO LIFR VIS NORTH OF HUL. LOW CEILINGS WILL CAUSE LOW MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB AND BGR. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE MOST LIKELY VFR AT ALL SITES WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF HUL. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: ANOTHER SCA STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND GOES INTO TUES
PM. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 AND 10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 614 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE: STEADY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. SNOW HAS EXTENDING ITS WAY DOWN INTO CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND HANCOCK COUNTY. THEREFORE, INCREASE THE
PERCENTAGES(POPS) W/THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS W/LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL LOOKING FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SO ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HRLY TEMPS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO BRING THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES USING THE ADJLAV GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO BE DOING
WELL ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THIS TERM W/SOME SNOW EARLY TODAY.

LATEST RADAR LOOP HAD PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL SHOWING
A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THIS REGION W/A 35 KT AT 700 MBS MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AND WILL RE-FREEZING
OF STANDING WATER, THIS WILL MAKE FOR ICY CONDITIONS. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM INDICATED SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION W/THIS TROF TO HELP IGNITE SOME ACTIVITY. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE FOR HEAVIER ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
IS THERE THROUGH 700MBS BUT LAPSE RATES NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE.
THEREFORE, SNOWFALL FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
LIGHT(LESS THAN AN INCH AT BEST). WNW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-20
MPH ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS. NOTHING MAJOR.

UPPER TROF SWINGS BY THIS EVENING W/HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION SET
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT
ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BUT THE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MIXING IN THE BLYR TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO LOW.
MUCH COLDER HOWEVER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS W/AREAS BACK ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH AND OUT WEST DROPPING AOB ZERO(0F) W/SINGLE NUMBERS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID
20 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR SO BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
WILL BE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS
THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BUT IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
SUPPORTING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS TEH CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE COULD BE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK
BRINGING SOME SNOW OR EVEN RAIN TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FRO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY W/A TEMPO OF IFR
THIS MORNING DUE TO SNOW. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY W/A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT W/VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS. MVFR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VFR
KBGR/KBHB. VFR THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SNOW WITH CONTINUED VFR
KBGR/KBHB. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VFR RETURNS
ALL TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: TRANSITIONED THE GALE WARNING TO A SCA INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO 25 KTS W/SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT. A SURGE
IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS CAA HITS THE WARMER WATERS.
SEAS ARE RUNNING 10-13 FT W/A SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SE. PERIODS
OF 11-12 SECONDS OUT THERE ATTM. THE SEA STATE WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE WIND COMPONENT GOES OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. SNOW FALLING AS COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW THINGS UP
TODAY. RIVERS/STREAMS ARE HIGH W/SOME ICE MOVEMENT ESPECIALLY ON
THE KINGSBURY STREAM IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. THREAT FOR MINOR
FLOODING INCLUDING ICE JAM FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE
SAINT JOHN...AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS AND ALLAGASH RIVERS ALONG
WITH SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 400 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THIS TERM W/SOME SNOW EARLY TODAY.

LATEST RADAR LOOP HAD PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL SHOWING
A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THIS REGION W/A 35 KT AT 700 MBS MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AND WILL RE-FREEZING
OF STANDING WATER, THIS WILL MAKE FOR ICY CONDITIONS. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM INDICATED SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION W/THIS TROF TO HELP IGNITE SOME ACTIVITY. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE FOR HEAVIER ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
IS THERE THROUGH 700MBS BUT LAPSE RATES NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE.
THEREFORE, SNOWFALL FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
LIGHT(LESS THAN AN INCH AT BEST). WNW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-20
MPH ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS. NOTHING MAJOR.

UPPER TROF SWINGS BY THIS EVENING W/HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION SET
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT
ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BUT THE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MIXING IN THE BLYR TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO LOW.
MUCH COLDER HOWEVER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS W/AREAS BACK ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH AND OUT WEST DROPPING AOB ZERO(0F) W/SINGLE NUMBERS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID
20 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR SO BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
WILL BE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS
THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BUT IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
SUPPORTING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS TEH CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE COULD BE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK
BRINGING SOME SNOW OR EVEN RAIN TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FRO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY W/A TEMPO OF IFR
THIS MORNING DUE TO SNOW. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY W/A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT W/VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS. MVFR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VFR
KBGR/KBHB. VFR THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SNOW WITH CONTINUED VFR
KBGR/KBHB. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VFR RETURNS
ALL TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: TRANSITIONED THE GALE WARNING TO A SCA INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO 25 KTS W/SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT. A SURGE
IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS CAA HITS THE WARMER WATERS.
SEAS ARE RUNNING 10-13 FT W/A SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SE. PERIODS
OF 11-12 SECONDS OUT THERE ATTM. THE SEA STATE WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE WIND COMPONENT GOES OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. SNOW FALLING AS COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW THINGS UP
TODAY. RIVERS/STREAMS ARE HIGH W/SOME ICE MOVEMENT ESPECIALLY ON
THE KINGSBURY STREAM IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. THREAT FOR MINOR
FLOODING INCLUDING ICE JAM FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE
SAINT JOHN...AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS AND ALLAGASH RIVERS ALONG
WITH SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1229 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE SNOW HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
ACCUMULATING OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...A
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND LOSS OF
WHAT INSOLATION WE HAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO
STICK.

DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND OMEGA
PLACEMENT ARE ALL FACTORS TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WV...MD...AND PA. HAVE BUMPED UP
THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC AND UPSLOPE
SUPPORT WHICH WILL GET OUR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG MIXING IN THE HAS PRODUCED
GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN THE RIDGES. WHILE THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD
ONLY LAST 6 HOURS OR SO...HAVE EMPHASIZED THE NEAR- ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS IN THE UPDATED WSW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THERE IS A WINDOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED COINCIDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INVIGORATE SOME SNOW SQUALLS...AS IS EMPHASIZED IN THE
HRRR AND THE RUC IN THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THESE CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND
INVERSIONS DROP BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST A DUAL-LAKE
BAND MAY PROLONG SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-80 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY IN THOSE COUNTIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A BAND PERSISTS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN LATER FRIDAY FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WOULD RECEIVE RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WOULD HAVE SNOW MIX IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH MODELS LACKING RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...HAVE MADE RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY LOCATED IN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW.

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA
OF SNOW SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10Z. AS THE SNOW PUSHES
SOUTHEAST OF A LOCATION...EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS COMMON IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 14Z.

WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO 20-30 KT...WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../AFTER 06Z SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 654 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN LO AMPLITUDE RDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME
TROFFING IN ERN NAMERICA. THE WX OVER UPR MI IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH LLVL WNW FLOW ADVECTING 12Z H85 TEMP OF 5C AT INL INTO THE
CWA. DESPITE SOME MID/HI CLDS PRESENT ABOVE FAIRLY DRY SFC-H7 LYR
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S WITHIN THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS...REACHING RECORD LVLS AT SOME
PLACES. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT DROPPING INTO LK SUP. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FNT IS RATHER COLD AND DRY AS 12Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS WERE 35C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. SFC DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN BLO
0F JUST TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE RDG
AXIS. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD VSBL ON WV IMAGERY...AND
OBSVD 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS IN ITS PATH WERE ARND 100M.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON IMPACT OF SHRTWV
MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SN TOTALS AND NEED TO EXPAND GOING WINTER WX ADVY.

TONIGHT...HIER RES MODELS SHOW SFC COLD FNT DROPPING S THRU THE CWA
THIS EVNG...REACHING NEAR MENOMINEE BY 06Z...WHEN THE FNT IS FCST TO
STALL ACROSS NCENTRAL WI. WHILE THE FROPA WL BE DRY DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF MSTR IN THE SFC-H7 LYR...MANY OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY SGNFT LLVL MOISTENING UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION BASE
STRENGTHENED BY NEAR SFC CAA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE LLVL
ENE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WL UPSLOPE. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM OBS AND TENDENCY FOR SOME OF THESE MODELS TO BE
TOO MOIST IN THE NEAR SFC LYR...CONCERNED THIS LLVL MOISTENING MAY
BE OVERDONE. BUT OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE FLOW WL ENHANCE COOLING/MOISTENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN...INCRSG DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG NRN ROCKIES SHRTWV THAT WL CAUSE A
LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE STALLING FNT IN MN/WI AS WELL AS UPR
DVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND IN RRQ OF 130KT H3
JET MAX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY WL CAUSE DEEPENING MSTR/PCPN TO ENVELOP
THE AREA FM THE NW. THIS PCPN WL AT LEAST BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
SN/SLEET/FREEZING RA AND RA OVER ALL BUT THE NCENTRAL DUE TO
PRONOUCNED ELEVATED WARM/DRY LYR SHOWN BY MANY OF THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS. BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND RESULTING DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WL COOL/MOISTEN THIS LYR WL CAUSE A CHANGE TO SN FM THE
NW TO SE. THE NAM IS A BIT OUT OF AN OUTLIER SHOWING A LONGER
LASTING ELEVATED WARM LYR...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING WL TEND TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE/QUICKER CHANGE TO MAINLY
SN. BUT EVEN THESE MODELS INDICATE SOME MIXED PCPN WL LINGER OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN ON SUN.

ONCE THE SFC LO TRACKING E ALONG THE STALLED FNT TO THE S SHIFTS
INTO LOWER MI AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS OVER THE W IN THE
AFTN...EXPECT THE PCPN THERE TO TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT LES AS H85
TEMPS FALL TO TOWARD -13C UNDER TRAILING THERMAL TROF. AS FOR SN
TOTALS...FCST H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO ABOUT 3-4 G/KG INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 INCHES OF WET SN /DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER HI
AND NARROW/ IN 6-12HR PERIOD OF FORCING OVER MAINLY THE N HALF OF
THE CWA...WHICH WL BE IMPACTED BY THE SHARPEST FGEN. OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PCPN AND PASSAGE OF ENHANCED
FORCING TO THE N WL RESULT IN AN INCH OR LESS OF SN.

FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO INCLUDE ONTONAGON AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SN WL
FALL IN THIS AREA. ALSO CONSIDERED ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT WITH MAINLY ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FCST IN THIS AREA DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE CWA TO
HEADLINE THE WINTRY MIX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

...SNOW AND BLSN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IS HIGHEST IMPACT
WEATHER OF EXTENDED...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND COLD AIR STARTS THE WEEK OUT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW INTERVALS OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET
DIGGING INTO WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THIS PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN JET BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE.

MOST EFFECTS OF SUN SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH ON SUN EVENING AS BRIEF SFC
RIDGE CROSSES AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS
FIRST PART OF SUN EVENING OVER FAR EAST. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DIVE TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUN
NIGHT AND CROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON MON MORNING. PVA/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
WINDS SHIFTING NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -19C
BY LATE MON MORNING WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MOST OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE EXITING MID-LATE MORNING SO THINK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...SO BLSN AND
REDUCED VSBY MAY BE ISSUE AS WELL. NAM IS SLOW OUTLIER WITH
FROPA...SO WENT MORE WITH GFS/GEM/LOCAL WRF. THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE REACHING ADVY...ADDED WIND/BLSN COMBINED WITH FROPA
OCCURRING JUST BEFORE OR DURING THE MON MORNING COMMUTE MAY ADD TO
THE HAZARD. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING...LES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT AT A DIMINISHED INTENSITY. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH AT
P53 AND ERY INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -18C. SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE STAYS
ON TRACK SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING SNOW
FM NORTHERN ILL TO LOWER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EVEN WITH
SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH...HINTS IN MODELS THAT LES MAY FLARE UP SOME
FOR NW FLOW AREAS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHERN FRINGE OF
DEEPER FORCING AFFECTS UPR MICHIGAN. INVERSIONS REMAIN AT OR BLO
5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE OF LES WILL INCREASE...IT SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM ON UPPER LAKES BY WED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW TIGHT SFC TROUGH BECOMES OVER LK
SUPERIOR INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS/GEM SHOW MORE OF A LOW OVER EASTERN
UPR MICHIGAN BY WED AFTN WHILE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG. EITHER CASE
SHOULD FAVOR PERIOD OF LGT SNOW WED MORNING BECOMING LES OFF
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. WITH THE STRONGER LOW...GFS IDEA WOULD SUGGEST
MORE SNOW/BLSN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS AT P53 SHOW
INVERSIONS NEARING 10KFT. ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD OR STRONG WITH MSLP
GRADIENT. BOTH SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE. RAN WITH CONSENSUS...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED INTO WED NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF LK
SUPERIOR AS A NUDGE TOWARD COLDER IDEA. RIDGE BUILDS OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES THU INTO THU NIGHT. MINS THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR COULD
DROP BLO ZERO...BUT DID NOT GO THAT FAR FM CONSENSUS NOW. ONCE RIDGE
PASSES BY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
MODEST WARMING TREND AND AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING S ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WITH FURTHER
REDUCTION TO IFR OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW...OCCURRING EARLIEST AT KSAW
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE SHARPER. IN ADDITION TO THE IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KSAW...SOME -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS THOUGH PCPN
MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF -FZRASNPL AT KIWD. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE SNOW WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR AT KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

COLD FRONT MOVING DROPPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A SFC LOW
CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NE GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY ON SUN. WINDS UP TO 30
KTS OVER REST OF THE LAKE. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BLO 25 KTS LATER SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
25 KTS OR LESS BY THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THEN
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1221 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS HELPING PREVENT FREE-FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING DESPITE A BOUNDARY LAYER. WE HELD WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE KEYS ON THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS LOWS
WARMER THAN WE ARE ADVERTISING. OUR DECISION TO MAKE NO CHANGE TO
OFFICIALLY-FORECAST LOWS IS BASED ON THE DRY AIR AND THE CLEARING
ALREADY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST ND PER EVENING
SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE MEANTIME WE DID NEED TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER IN THE FORECAST...WHILE ADVERTISING A DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

NO CHANGES OF NOTE WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH-
EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. THAT WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF A DRY AND QUIET NIGHT DESPITE THAT WAVE PASSAGE.
THAT/S LARGELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT EXISTS WITH 23
UTC SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS F IN SOUTH-
WEST ND TO THE TEENS F ELSEWHERE. THE DRY AIR MAY PROMOTE QUICK
COOLING THIS EVENING SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES IN
CASE FORECAST LOWS ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE RETREATING
TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ERODING THE
WESTERN EDGE. BY THIS EVENING THE STRATUS SHOULD HAVE RETREATED
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ISOLATED FOG NORTH
CENTRAL BUT NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON FRIDAY...THE H500 RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION. WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH GOOD MIXING
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE A BRIEF BUT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS
ROUNDING OUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING A COOLING
TREND. CHANCES OF SNOW ALSO RETURN WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE NAEFS/NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM SHOWS MODEL FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO 850-500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING WITHIN THE 98TH/99TH PERCENTILE WITH RESPECT TO
CLIMATOLOGY. NOT QUITE A MAXIMUM BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE THESE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT AN EVENT THAT IS OUTSIDE THE 1979-
2000 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
AROUND 65 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR CITIES WITH THE RECORD AT
JAMESTOWN OF 60 DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
50F AND 62F. ALBEIT SHY OF RECORDS...THIS WILL STILL NEED SOME
MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IS FORECAST WEST SATURDAY EVENING...AND AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUICK TRANSITION FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BACK TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PUSHES
THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. THIS COULD CHANGE IF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG
TERM MODELS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN THE GFS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES CHANCES
OF SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ONLY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH AFTER SATURDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
TREND COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 529 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

AT 3 PM...A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WIND HAD ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR...
LA CROSSE IS THE ONLY LOCATION THAT HAS TIED A RECORD. MORE ON
THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

THE COMBINATION OF DRY GRASSES AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND HAS
ALLOWED ONE GRASS FIRE TO START NEAR DRESBACH MN. FORTUNATELY...
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS NEVER DROPPED AS LOW AS ANTICIPATED OR WE
COULD HAVE HAD MORE ISSUES WITH GRASS FIRES THIS AFTERNOON.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
WE WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL
WE ARE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE GREATEST SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. A WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. HOWEVER WITH BOTH THE ARW AND NMM NOT
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE MORNING...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
WINTRY MIX AT ALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S NORTHWEST AN AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO OWEN WISCONSIN LINE...AND
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE DEEPEST
SATURATION AND FORCING WILL BE TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29
WHERE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS. WITH THE
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT MOST OF IT WOULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AND THERE WOULD BE ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM ALOFT...WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW THERE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE
TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT SHIFTS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT THE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A
RESULT...WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE GOES INTO SATURATION...THUS...ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE
UP TO AN INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
TEENS. WITH THIS MODEL BEING WAY TOO COLD /THE AVERAGE OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS AT THIS TIME PERIOD IF RUNNING AROUND 10F TOO COLD/
DURING THE PAST MONTH...KEPT THE FORECAST NEAR THE MODEL BLEND.
THIS HAPPENS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND REACH LAKE HURON BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
BOTH SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 27.18Z NAM AND GFS AND THE
27.21Z RAP ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AT
KLSE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SPEEDS AT 2000 FEET
INCREASING INTO THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. AS OF 23Z...THE VWP FROM
KARX DID NOT SUPPORT THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS THE MODELS WERE
ALREADY SHOWING TO BE IN PLACE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT HAD TO
GET UP TO 4000 FEET BEFORE THERE WERE ANY 40 KNOT RETURNS. WILL
LEAVE THE LLWS IN FOR KLSE AND MONITOR THE WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY LOWERING OF THESE STRONGER SPEEDS.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
BOTH TAF SITES BY THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY MORNING SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. A GOOD GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MOST OF THE MODELS
ALSO WANT TO BRING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS IS BASED ON TAKING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
THE LOW AND SPREADING IT DOWN OVER THE REGION AND EXPANDING IT.
HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN...SO
FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY BROUGHT IN A SCATTERED DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

SO FAR TODAY...LA CROSSE IS ONLY PLACE TO TIE A RECORD. WITH
60 DEGREES...IT TIED 1896 AND 1976 FOR THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON THIS DATE. IT WAS THE 12TH CONSECUTIVE TIME THAT WE
HAVE A RECORD TEMPERATURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LEDGER /5 RECORD
HIGHS AND 7 WARMEST LOW/. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A RECORD COLD
MAXIMUM OR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SEPTEMBER 12 2014.

THIS WAS THE 9TH EARLIEST DATE IN THE YEAR THAT LA CROSSE HAS REACHED
60 DEGREE DAY. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURE THIS
EARLY IN A YEAR WAS BACK IN 2000 /FEBRUARY 23RD/. THE EARLIEST 60
DEGREE TEMPERATURE IN A YEAR WAS BACK IN 1882 /FEBRUARY 11TH/.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE RECORDS FROM THE
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...BUT THEY DO NOT REPORT UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS. TO THE NORTHWEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPRAWLING HIGH COVERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AN INVERSION
IS KEEPING THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AT THE SFC. THIS HAS SET UP A
RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BUT IN THE MID 40S ON MANY OF THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE WEST. SOME VALLEYS IN
THE WEST...LIKE MONTICELLO...DECOUPLED EARLY...SET THEIR LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM POTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM EACH OF THE MODELS. A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PASSES...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT...SUNNY...BREEZY...
AND WARM LATE FEBRUARY DAY. WINDS MAY PUSH 30 TO 35 MPH IN GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. FOR THIS...AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED AS RH
WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO CONSULT WITH THE FOREST
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING ABOUT THE FUEL MOISTURES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY WITH AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN PASSING
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY...ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON GOING AND SOME CAA EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID RANGE OF
CHANCE...FOR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS.  OPTED TO GO MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.  CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. 00Z
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.  A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SWATH
OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. FORCING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.  SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DISCOUNTING THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...IT DOES
APPEAR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION LAGS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. DOESN`T
MEAN WE COULDN`T SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLDER
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE
20S.  ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH...LEADING UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.  OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO
40 KTS AT ABOUT 2K OFF THE GROUND WITH A SIMILAR CONCERN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF SUNDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 406 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS
NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WINDS HAVE JUST SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHWEST AT KFVE. RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEREFORE THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE
AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO
ABOUT THE HOULTON AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY ABOUT DAYBREAK.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
AND THEN TOWARD FAR NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MOST MAINE THIS EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT STARTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF NORTHERN MOST MAINE...EXCEPT FOR
FAR NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK...WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED SINCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES HERE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SAINT
JOHN VALLEY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND THE MID
30S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS EITHER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY IN FAR NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY OR A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE GASPE PENINSULA
MON MORNING. THERE REMAINS MODEL SPREAD IN THE TRACK AS WELL AS THE
QPF AND PRECIPITATION TYPE MON MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT SNOW WILL
END AS A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY, AND RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS PRESQUE ISLE/CARIBOU AREAS.
THERE IS STILL A REASONABLE CHANCE OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL
OF AROUND 7 OR 8 INCHES IN THE POPULATED AREAS IN ZONE 1
(MADAWASKA/FORT KENT AREAS) AND WILL GO WITH A WARNING FOR ZONE 1.
CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS LESS IN ZONE 2...AND IF
IT WERE TO BE REACHED IT WOULD BE IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF ZONE
NEAR VAN BUREN AND WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. FOR THE
NEXT TIER OF ZONES 2-6 AND 10 THE QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL WILL
DROP OFF RAPIDLY, BUT THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND WILL HAVE ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS INTO MON MORNING. AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY IN THE AFTERNOON ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL
END AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW RACES ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE MON NIGHT, AND IN THE COLD AIR THE SNOW THAT FALL
WILL HAVE HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH,
AND 2-3 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW, IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED EVE. A REVIEW OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FROM 12Z SHOWS A WIDE GOALPOST OF THE SOLUTIONS
WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA AND SOME TO THE
EAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT, BUT THE DETAILS AS TO THE AMOUNT AND QPF TYPE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A COUPLE
OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WED AND WED
NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM TAKES ONE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WED
EVENING, AND THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS
EASTPORT AT 00Z THU. THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE EITHER
ADVISORIES OR LOW END WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THU-SAT WILL AVERAGE A
LITTLE BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE START OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNON
AND CONTINUE TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS KBGR/KBHB THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS MON MORNING WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH EITHER MVFR OR VFR AT THE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS WED WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR OR VFR BY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A HIGH END SCA WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS INTO MON
AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING WITH THE WIND TO DIMINISH
AND THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATER IN THE DAY TUE.
THE NEXT LOW MAY BRING GALES TO THE WATERS WED, BUT THE TRACK OF
THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MEZ002>MEZ006 & MEZ010.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1215 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THEN
STALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE
OVERNIGHT AND BEFORE STALLING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY. AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS BUT LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.


ORGNL DISC: A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...
WITH A COLD FRONT STARTING TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AN INCH OR LESS. ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...AFTER A
PARTLY CLOUDY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. COULD HAVE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SUNDAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH 10 TO 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO THE MID 20S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL SNOW IN
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO RISE ALL NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10F IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST
REGION. LITTLE PRECIP WILL FALL TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT JUST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ENDS UP
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...USING AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL MAJOR
MODELS...WILL TRACK THE LOW FROM INTO FORT KENT AND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN
THE RAIN-SNOW LINE MOVES NORTH OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK...WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH INTACT RATHER THAN CONVERTING TO A
WARNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE UP A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
NEARLY THE IMPACT OF THE LAST STORM. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA AS MEASURABLE SNOW AND
FROZEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TOWARDS
HOULTON.. RAIN WILL FINALLY ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
EXIT QUICKLY BY MIDDAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOW
30S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE COAST. GOOD MIXING AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME FAIRLY HEFTY WIND GUSTS REACHING UP
TO 40 MPH.

THE NORTH-SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S FOR BANGOR TO SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW COMPLEX IN HUDSON`S BAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. IT`S UNLIKELY TO BRING MORE THAN AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW AT THE MOST. WHEN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS WITH SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR IN PLACE TO ENSURE THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS AS SNOW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO MID 30S IN SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUE NIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WED MORN AND AFTN. THE 12Z
EURO IS MUCH CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS IN TERMS OF STORM
TRACK, TAKING THE LOW OVER INTERIOR SRN NEW ENG AND THEN ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE. THE GFS IS A GOOD DEAL FASTER, SINCE IT HAS A
SOMEWHAT WEAKER UPR TROF DRIVING THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER NEG TILT UPR TROF WHICH ISN`T AS FAST TO PUSH EAST. KEPT
POPS LKLY TO DEF BETWEEN 12Z WED TO 00Z THU, BUT START SCALING
POPS DOWN AFTER 00Z THU, WITH MOST PRECIP CLEAR OF THE AREA BY
DAWN THURS. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SN SHWRS THU PM AND NIGHT AS THE
BROADER UPR TROF ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, PSBLY ACCOMPANIED
BY A SFC TROF OR REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

AS FOR PTYPE WED AND WED NIGHT, ANYTHING FALLING BEFORE DAWN WED
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. EXPECT RA/SN LINE WILL MOVE NORTH DURING THE
DAY THANKS TO SE-S WINDS. HIGH WATER MARK OF THE RA/SN LINE
CURRENTLY PEGGED ALONG A MOOSEHEAD-PRESQUE ISLE LINE, WHICH AGREES
WELL W/ THE CURRENT STORM TRACK THINKING. EURO AND GFS AGREE ON AN
ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING TOWARD THE REGION FRI AND SAT, BRINGING
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF COLD
WEATHER. THE EURO SHOWS A STRONG LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
COD SAT AND SUN, WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER LOW MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH. FOR NOW, KEPT ANY POPS WELL OFFSHORE AND OUT OF OUR GRIDS,
BUT THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TONIGHT. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL CAUSE
IFR TO LIFR VIS NORTH OF HUL. LOW CEILINGS WILL CAUSE LOW MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB AND BGR. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE MOST LIKELY VFR AT ALL SITES WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF HUL. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: ANOTHER SCA STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND GOES INTO TUES
PM. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 AND 10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/MCW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 356 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN LO AMPLITUDE RDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME
TROFFING IN ERN NAMERICA. THE WX OVER UPR MI IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH LLVL WNW FLOW ADVECTING 12Z H85 TEMP OF 5C AT INL INTO THE
CWA. DESPITE SOME MID/HI CLDS PRESENT ABOVE FAIRLY DRY SFC-H7 LYR
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S WITHIN THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS...REACHING RECORD LVLS AT SOME
PLACES. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT DROPPING INTO LK SUP. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FNT IS RATHER COLD AND DRY AS 12Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS WERE 35C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. SFC DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN BLO
0F JUST TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE RDG
AXIS. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD VSBL ON WV IMAGERY...AND
OBSVD 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS IN ITS PATH WERE ARND 100M.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON IMPACT OF SHRTWV
MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SN TOTALS AND NEED TO EXPAND GOING WINTER WX ADVY.

TONIGHT...HIER RES MODELS SHOW SFC COLD FNT DROPPING S THRU THE CWA
THIS EVNG...REACHING NEAR MENOMINEE BY 06Z...WHEN THE FNT IS FCST TO
STALL ACROSS NCENTRAL WI. WHILE THE FROPA WL BE DRY DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF MSTR IN THE SFC-H7 LYR...MANY OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY SGNFT LLVL MOISTENING UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION BASE
STRENGTHENED BY NEAR SFC CAA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE LLVL
ENE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WL UPSLOPE. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM OBS AND TENDENCY FOR SOME OF THESE MODELS TO BE
TOO MOIST IN THE NEAR SFC LYR...CONCERNED THIS LLVL MOISTENING MAY
BE OVERDONE. BUT OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE FLOW WL ENHANCE COOLING/MOISTENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN...INCRSG DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG NRN ROCKIES SHRTWV THAT WL CAUSE A
LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE STALLING FNT IN MN/WI AS WELL AS UPR
DVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND IN RRQ OF 130KT H3
JET MAX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY WL CAUSE DEEPENING MSTR/PCPN TO ENVELOP
THE AREA FM THE NW. THIS PCPN WL AT LEAST BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
SN/SLEET/FREEZING RA AND RA OVER ALL BUT THE NCENTRAL DUE TO
PRONOUCNED ELEVATED WARM/DRY LYR SHOWN BY MANY OF THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS. BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND RESULTING DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WL COOL/MOISTEN THIS LYR WL CAUSE A CHANGE TO SN FM THE
NW TO SE. THE NAM IS A BIT OUT OF AN OUTLIER SHOWING A LONGER
LASTING ELEVATED WARM LYR...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING WL TEND TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE/QUICKER CHANGE TO MAINLY
SN. BUT EVEN THESE MODELS INDICATE SOME MIXED PCPN WL LINGER OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN ON SUN.

ONCE THE SFC LO TRACKING E ALONG THE STALLED FNT TO THE S SHIFTS
INTO LOWER MI AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS OVER THE W IN THE
AFTN...EXPECT THE PCPN THERE TO TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT LES AS H85
TEMPS FALL TO TOWARD -13C UNDER TRAILING THERMAL TROF. AS FOR SN
TOTALS...FCST H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO ABOUT 3-4 G/KG INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 INCHES OF WET SN /DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER HI
AND NARROW/ IN 6-12HR PERIOD OF FORCING OVER MAINLY THE N HALF OF
THE CWA...WHICH WL BE IMPACTED BY THE SHARPEST FGEN. OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PCPN AND PASSAGE OF ENHANCED
FORCING TO THE N WL RESULT IN AN INCH OR LESS OF SN.

FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO INCLUDE ONTONAGON AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SN WL
FALL IN THIS AREA. ALSO CONSIDERED ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT WITH MAINLY ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FCST IN THIS AREA DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE CWA TO
HEADLINE THE WINTRY MIX.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS ON THE LONG
TERM...WHICH BEGINS 12Z MON.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW OF THE CWA WITH A ROUGHLY 997MB
SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO THE SW OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MON. THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY QUICK HITTING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY 18Z MON. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO
QUICK DUMP OF SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS MON
MORNING. HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 2-3 INCHES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES (POSSIBLY UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE KEWEENAW) WITH A TRANCE
TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE...BUT MOST OF THAT FALLS IN 3 HOURS AND DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WITH HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES OUT AND WITH A SFC
HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W...SHOULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45KTS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES (STRONGEST KEWEENAW AND E) FOR 3-4
HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE LOW/COLD FRONT...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25-30KTS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS OVER
THE NW SHOULD FALL FROM AROUND 20F AT 12Z TO THE MID TEENS BY
15Z...THEN GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. OVER THE SE...THE TEMPS START AT 25-30F AND TAKES LONGER TO
FALL...BUT DOES FALL INTO THE TEENS BY THE EVENING. CONCERN IS THAT
PAVEMENT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE GIVEN THE QUICK
SNOWFALL...WINDS BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE ROAD (AND REDUCING
VIS)...AND TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING FROM RELATIVELY WARM TO WHERE SALT
IS NOT AN EFFECTIVE ROAD TREATMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
QUICKLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WOULD ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
GIVEN THAT AN ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL PUNT THAT TO THE
NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -15C TO -20C MON EVENING...WILL SEE LES LINGER
IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH WED. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LESSER
AND GREATER LES DURING THAT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES S OF THE
AREA AND RIDING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT TIMES...STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WORTH HEADLINES AFTER MON. WED NIGHT AND THU MAY
SEE MORE NLY WINDS...WHICH WILL FAVOR MUCH OF NORTHERN UPPER MI FOR
LIGHT LES. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARMER AIRMASS AND SW FLOW LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SYSTEM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO BE REAL SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED.
MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WITH A STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CIGS AT KSAW WILL LIKELY FALL TO LIFR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME -FZDZ. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE
IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AS A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO THE S...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS THOUGH PCPN
MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF -FZRASNPL AT KIWD. DURING THE SNOW...KIWD/KCMX
SHOULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS WITH KSAW MOSTLY LIFR...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM W TO
E LATE AFTN/EVENING AS SNOW DIMINISHES/ENDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

COLD FRONT MOVING DROPPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A SFC LOW
CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NE GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY ON SUN. WINDS UP TO 30
KTS OVER REST OF THE LAKE. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BLO 25 KTS LATER SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
25 KTS OR LESS BY THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THEN
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     003>005.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
     084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     LSZ263-264.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263>265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1158 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN LO AMPLITUDE RDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME
TROFFING IN ERN NAMERICA. THE WX OVER UPR MI IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH LLVL WNW FLOW ADVECTING 12Z H85 TEMP OF 5C AT INL INTO THE
CWA. DESPITE SOME MID/HI CLDS PRESENT ABOVE FAIRLY DRY SFC-H7 LYR
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S WITHIN THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS...REACHING RECORD LVLS AT SOME
PLACES. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT DROPPING INTO LK SUP. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FNT IS RATHER COLD AND DRY AS 12Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS WERE 35C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. SFC DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN BLO
0F JUST TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE RDG
AXIS. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD VSBL ON WV IMAGERY...AND
OBSVD 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS IN ITS PATH WERE ARND 100M.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON IMPACT OF SHRTWV
MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SN TOTALS AND NEED TO EXPAND GOING WINTER WX ADVY.

TONIGHT...HIER RES MODELS SHOW SFC COLD FNT DROPPING S THRU THE CWA
THIS EVNG...REACHING NEAR MENOMINEE BY 06Z...WHEN THE FNT IS FCST TO
STALL ACROSS NCENTRAL WI. WHILE THE FROPA WL BE DRY DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF MSTR IN THE SFC-H7 LYR...MANY OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY SGNFT LLVL MOISTENING UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION BASE
STRENGTHENED BY NEAR SFC CAA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE LLVL
ENE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WL UPSLOPE. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM OBS AND TENDENCY FOR SOME OF THESE MODELS TO BE
TOO MOIST IN THE NEAR SFC LYR...CONCERNED THIS LLVL MOISTENING MAY
BE OVERDONE. BUT OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE FLOW WL ENHANCE COOLING/MOISTENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN...INCRSG DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG NRN ROCKIES SHRTWV THAT WL CAUSE A
LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE STALLING FNT IN MN/WI AS WELL AS UPR
DVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND IN RRQ OF 130KT H3
JET MAX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY WL CAUSE DEEPENING MSTR/PCPN TO ENVELOP
THE AREA FM THE NW. THIS PCPN WL AT LEAST BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
SN/SLEET/FREEZING RA AND RA OVER ALL BUT THE NCENTRAL DUE TO
PRONOUCNED ELEVATED WARM/DRY LYR SHOWN BY MANY OF THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS. BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND RESULTING DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WL COOL/MOISTEN THIS LYR WL CAUSE A CHANGE TO SN FM THE
NW TO SE. THE NAM IS A BIT OUT OF AN OUTLIER SHOWING A LONGER
LASTING ELEVATED WARM LYR...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING WL TEND TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE/QUICKER CHANGE TO MAINLY
SN. BUT EVEN THESE MODELS INDICATE SOME MIXED PCPN WL LINGER OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN ON SUN.

ONCE THE SFC LO TRACKING E ALONG THE STALLED FNT TO THE S SHIFTS
INTO LOWER MI AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS OVER THE W IN THE
AFTN...EXPECT THE PCPN THERE TO TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT LES AS H85
TEMPS FALL TO TOWARD -13C UNDER TRAILING THERMAL TROF. AS FOR SN
TOTALS...FCST H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO ABOUT 3-4 G/KG INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 INCHES OF WET SN /DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER HI
AND NARROW/ IN 6-12HR PERIOD OF FORCING OVER MAINLY THE N HALF OF
THE CWA...WHICH WL BE IMPACTED BY THE SHARPEST FGEN. OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PCPN AND PASSAGE OF ENHANCED
FORCING TO THE N WL RESULT IN AN INCH OR LESS OF SN.

FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO INCLUDE ONTONAGON AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SN WL
FALL IN THIS AREA. ALSO CONSIDERED ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT WITH MAINLY ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FCST IN THIS AREA DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE CWA TO
HEADLINE THE WINTRY MIX.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

...SNOW AND BLSN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IS HIGHEST IMPACT
WEATHER OF EXTENDED...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND COLD AIR STARTS THE WEEK OUT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW INTERVALS OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET
DIGGING INTO WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THIS PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN JET BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE.

MOST EFFECTS OF SUN SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH ON SUN EVENING AS BRIEF SFC
RIDGE CROSSES AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS
FIRST PART OF SUN EVENING OVER FAR EAST. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DIVE TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUN
NIGHT AND CROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON MON MORNING. PVA/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
WINDS SHIFTING NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -19C
BY LATE MON MORNING WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MOST OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE EXITING MID-LATE MORNING SO THINK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...SO BLSN AND
REDUCED VSBY MAY BE ISSUE AS WELL. NAM IS SLOW OUTLIER WITH
FROPA...SO WENT MORE WITH GFS/GEM/LOCAL WRF. THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE REACHING ADVY...ADDED WIND/BLSN COMBINED WITH FROPA
OCCURRING JUST BEFORE OR DURING THE MON MORNING COMMUTE MAY ADD TO
THE HAZARD. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING...LES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT AT A DIMINISHED INTENSITY. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH AT
P53 AND ERY INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -18C. SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE STAYS
ON TRACK SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING SNOW
FM NORTHERN ILL TO LOWER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EVEN WITH
SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH...HINTS IN MODELS THAT LES MAY FLARE UP SOME
FOR NW FLOW AREAS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHERN FRINGE OF
DEEPER FORCING AFFECTS UPR MICHIGAN. INVERSIONS REMAIN AT OR BLO
5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE OF LES WILL INCREASE...IT SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM ON UPPER LAKES BY WED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW TIGHT SFC TROUGH BECOMES OVER LK
SUPERIOR INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS/GEM SHOW MORE OF A LOW OVER EASTERN
UPR MICHIGAN BY WED AFTN WHILE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG. EITHER CASE
SHOULD FAVOR PERIOD OF LGT SNOW WED MORNING BECOMING LES OFF
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. WITH THE STRONGER LOW...GFS IDEA WOULD SUGGEST
MORE SNOW/BLSN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS AT P53 SHOW
INVERSIONS NEARING 10KFT. ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD OR STRONG WITH MSLP
GRADIENT. BOTH SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE. RAN WITH CONSENSUS...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED INTO WED NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF LK
SUPERIOR AS A NUDGE TOWARD COLDER IDEA. RIDGE BUILDS OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES THU INTO THU NIGHT. MINS THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR COULD
DROP BLO ZERO...BUT DID NOT GO THAT FAR FM CONSENSUS NOW. ONCE RIDGE
PASSES BY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
MODEST WARMING TREND AND AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED.
MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WITH A STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...CIGS AT KSAW WILL LIKELY FALL TO LIFR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME -FZDZ. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE
IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AS A LOW PRES WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TO THE S...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS THOUGH PCPN
MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF -FZRASNPL AT KIWD. DURING THE SNOW...KIWD/KCMX
SHOULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS WITH KSAW MOSTLY LIFR...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM W TO
E LATE AFTN/EVENING AS SNOW DIMINISHES/ENDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

COLD FRONT MOVING DROPPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A SFC LOW
CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NE GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY ON SUN. WINDS UP TO 30
KTS OVER REST OF THE LAKE. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BLO 25 KTS LATER SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
25 KTS OR LESS BY THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THEN
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003>005.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-
     084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 349 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

Main concerns are with wind and elevated fire weather danger today.
Will be issuing a wind advisory for north of I-70 for today. See the
fire weather section below for the fire weather concerns.

A shortwave trough currently seen on water vapor extending from the
Upper Midwest into the central High Plains will deepen and move
across the region by late this afternoon.  Its attendant cold front
will move across the area this afternoon.  A tight pressure gradient
will set up ahead of it today which will set up very windy
conditions over the area.  KLSX VAD winds at 0930Z are showing 55kts
at 2000ft AGL that will begin to mix down this morning.

In addition, both the latest runs of the HRRR and NSSL WRF are
showing that there will be isolated light showers developing early
to mid afternoon over the southeast half of the CWA ahead of the
cold front.  This will be in response to strong low level moisture
convergence ahead of the front this afternoon.  Have added a slight
chance of showers to accommodate these showers.

Temperatures today will still get well above normal even with clouds
moving into the area because of the warm start and forecast
soundings showing mixing up to 800mb.  Have gone with highs above
the warmest MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

GFS and ECMWF are still showing continuity problems with the storm
that will move across the area on Tuesday.  Will stay a constant
course and keep with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
on Monday night.  Have now just kept that chance of thunderstorms to
the the southeast half of the CWA on Tuesday morning now as both the
GFS and the ECMWF shows the low pressure system racing eastward
early in the day.  Any chance of rain or snow over the area looks
like it will just be on Tuesday evening over the eastern half of the
area.

Wednesday still looks dry before the ECMWF and GFS brings a clipper
across the area on Thursday.  Will continue to carry a chance of
rain or snow with it Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal Wednesday through
Friday before climbing back above normal in time for the weekend.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. A moderate S-SW surface flow will couple with a strong low
level jet of 45-50kts to result in LLWS at all sites thru mid
Sunday morning. This jet is then expected to aid in enhancing
wind gusts for a time later Sunday morning and early afternoon,
with gusts of 30kts or higher expected during this time. A cold
front will move thru the area Sunday afternoon...around 21z for
UIN and COU...and around 00z for STL metro sites...and is expected
to kick up a region of low-VFR cloudiness ahead of it. Guidance
has come in a bit wetter and continues to suggest isolated SHRA
possible for STL metro during a fairly brief window from 19-21z
Sunday afternoon. Given the small probability and small time
window, will leave out of TAFs with the 06z issuance. Winds will
then veer W-NW with cold FROPA.

TES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

There will be a small area of elevated fire danger over central
Missouri this afternoon. Above normal temperatures and low
dewpoints will help drive minimum relative humdities down into the
25 to 30 percent range. In addition...southwest winds in the 15 to
20 mph range with higher gusts will shift to the west behind of
cold front in the afternoon. 10 hour dry fuels fell as low as 5
percent at Ashland in Boone County on Saturday afternoon.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon
     FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon
     FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene
     IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 359 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW LOW PRESSURE
NEAR MINNEAPOLIS WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH IS MAKING FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TREND
THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE LA CROSSE THEN START TO COOL BY LATE MORNING AS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT EDGE SOUTH. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LA CROSS
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO VERY MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOCATIONS LIKE BOSCOBEL AND PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING ON 60 BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL BE BATTLING SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN SO
THAT MAY TEMPER HOW MUCH WARMING OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION  WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH FORCING INCREASING LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
THIS AFTERNOON TOO WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL PICK UP
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN...WE WILL SEE
SPRINKLES DEVELOP WHICH COULD SWITCH OVER TO FLURRIES LATE AS
COOLER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. AFTER A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
25 TO 30 MPH IN OPEN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THEN
A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. THE FRONT
THEN SLOWS AND HANGS UP ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INTERACTS
WITH A TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MANY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW
TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT WE COULD SEE A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE LOOK TO RETURN TO
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF INTERSTATE  94 WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

THE VWP FROM KARX INDICATES THE STRONGER WINDS DID WORK DOWN AND
HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME 40 KNOT RETURNS AT 2000 FEET THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR KLSE UNTIL 10Z AS
THE 28.00Z MODELS AND 28.03Z RAP CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
UP WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TO
ALLOW GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR BOTH SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE LOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
MOISTURE FIELD COMING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE
INTRODUCED A MVFR CEILING FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THESE CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

AT 3 PM...A COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WIND HAD ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SO FAR...
LA CROSSE IS THE ONLY LOCATION THAT HAS TIED A RECORD. MORE ON
THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

THE COMBINATION OF DRY GRASSES AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND HAS
ALLOWED ONE GRASS FIRE TO START NEAR DRESBACH MN. FORTUNATELY...
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS NEVER DROPPED AS LOW AS ANTICIPATED OR WE
COULD HAVE HAD MORE ISSUES WITH GRASS FIRES THIS AFTERNOON.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
WE WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL
WE ARE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE GREATEST SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. A WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. HOWEVER WITH BOTH THE ARW AND NMM NOT
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE MORNING...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
WINTRY MIX AT ALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S NORTHWEST AN AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO OWEN WISCONSIN LINE...AND
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE DEEPEST
SATURATION AND FORCING WILL BE TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29
WHERE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS. WITH THE
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT MOST OF IT WOULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AND THERE WOULD BE ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM ALOFT...WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW THERE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE
TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT SHIFTS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT THE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A
RESULT...WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE GOES INTO SATURATION...THUS...ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE
UP TO AN INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
TEENS. WITH THIS MODEL BEING WAY TOO COLD /THE AVERAGE OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS AT THIS TIME PERIOD IF RUNNING AROUND 10F TOO COLD/
DURING THE PAST MONTH...KEPT THE FORECAST NEAR THE MODEL BLEND.
THIS HAPPENS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

THE VWP FROM KARX INDICATES THE STRONGER WINDS DID WORK DOWN AND
HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME 40 KNOT RETURNS AT 2000 FEET THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR KLSE UNTIL 10Z AS
THE 28.00Z MODELS AND 28.03Z RAP CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
UP WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TO
ALLOW GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR BOTH SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE LOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
MOISTURE FIELD COMING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE
INTRODUCED A MVFR CEILING FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THESE CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

SO FAR TODAY...LA CROSSE IS ONLY PLACE TO TIE A RECORD. WITH
60 DEGREES...IT TIED 1896 AND 1976 FOR THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON THIS DATE. IT WAS THE 12TH CONSECUTIVE TIME THAT WE
HAVE A RECORD TEMPERATURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LEDGER /5 RECORD
HIGHS AND 7 WARMEST LOW/. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A RECORD COLD
MAXIMUM OR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SEPTEMBER 12 2014.

THIS WAS THE 9TH EARLIEST DATE IN THE YEAR THAT LA CROSSE HAS REACHED
60 DEGREE DAY. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD A 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURE THIS
EARLY IN A YEAR WAS BACK IN 2000 /FEBRUARY 23RD/. THE EARLIEST 60
DEGREE TEMPERATURE IN A YEAR WAS BACK IN 1882 /FEBRUARY 11TH/.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE RECORDS FROM THE
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...BUT THEY DO NOT REPORT UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 539 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

A VORT MAX IS MOVING ACROSS NE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AIDED IN
KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS. THIS WIND....VORT MAX AND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL SERVE AS A LAUNCHING BOARD FOR
TODAYS TEMPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS TODAY COULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE
ARE STARTING OUT IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME AREAS. ALSO WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE QC. NORTH OF THE QC THERE
IS A SCHC FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AND VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

FIRST THE TEMPS...GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO LOW FOR MOST SITES
YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN DELTA BEING 4 DEGREES. YESTERDAY AM IT
APPEARED THAT THE MESOSCALE HOURLY MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
TEMPS AND WINDS FOR YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO START TODAY WITH THE RUC
WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RUC IS HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG MIXING AND
TEMPS STARTING IN THE 50S I THINK THE RUC IS NOT FAR OFF. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TEMPS WOULD BE ANY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING SUNLIGHT. REGARDLESS...WE ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY.

NOW THE WINDS. WINDS HAVE NOT CEASED THIS AM. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE RUC HAS 55 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
OTHER GUIDANCE HAS UPPER TO MID 40 KNOTS IN THIS LAYER. SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL DEFINITELY REACH THE 30 MPH
SUSTAINED CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT IN THIS AREA. AM
CONCERNED THAT WE ARE TOO LOW ON WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FROPA
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND SWITCH THE WIND DIRECTION. THIS
SWITCH WILL STILL KEEP US GUSTY. THINK THAT WE ARE SET UP FOR A
WARM...AND QUITE WINDY DAY AND THAT MY WINDS MAY BE UNDER DONE.

FINALLY THE VORT MAX AND FROPA. HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VORTMAX. LOOKING AT MODEL RH
AND SOUNDINGS WE STAY INCREDIBLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH THE LLVL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORMIDABLE...I THINK SCHC POPS IS WARRANTED BECAUSE OF
THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE HIRES MODELS. I THINK THAT SPRINKLES
MAY BE ALL THAT WE GET DUE TO THE LACK OF SATURATION. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE THE LEAST OF ALL IMPACTS WEATHERWISE TODAY
WITH THE WINDS BEING THE MOST IMPACT.

AFTER THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. THINK THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL SO
THAT WILL NEED TO BE KEPT AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT WILL AID IN SENDING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL NOTED IN 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF WHILE NAM IS CLOSE IF NOT A BIT SLOWER WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS.
USING BLENDED APPROACH WOULD BRING FRONT INTO NORTHERN CWA TOWARD MIDDAY
OR EARLY PM THEN SAGGING SOUTH. PRE-FRONTAL... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DEEPER MIXING WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH OF I-80. MOST CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST
AND BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WHERE READINGS
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S SHOULD FASTER TIMING VERIFY TO THE MID 50S WITH
SLOWER TIMING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRAW DOWN OF SURFACE DEWPTS WITH THE
DEEPER MIXING MAY BRING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED GRASS FIRE DANGER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
CWA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE... STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET. THE JET STRUCTURE AND FAVORED QUADRANT WOULD
FAVOR ANY SURFACE WAVE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH. THUS... ANTICIPATE PROGRESSIVE
FGEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
EXITING EASTERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING. AMERICAN MODELS QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCH
WITHIN THE BAND SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND LAYER PWATS OF
ONLY 0.25 INCH TO 0.4 INCH. DESPITE THIS CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT BURST OF
MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN ALSO PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THUS CANT RULE OUT SNOW ACCUMS OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH MOST FAVORED
AREA TO SEE THESE ACCUMS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LESSER AMOUNTS
IF ANY FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO MORE MARGINAL GROUND AND BL TEMPS AND ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR MIX INITIALLY AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STILL ON MAGNITUDE AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
TEMPS ALTHOUGH NOT FAR OFF FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
IS SUGGESTED AROUND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. OTHERWISE... MAINLY
DRY. BY THE WEEKEND SOME INDICATIONS OF LESS AMPLIFICATION /SEMI-ZONAL/ WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 14Z AND THEN THE STRONG WINDS AND FROPA DURING THE DAY.
SUSTAINED SW WINDS AREA WIDE IN THE MID 20 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH00Z
MONDAY. GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT BRL.
WIND SHIFT OCCURS AND WINDS WILL STAY UP AFTER THIS. GUIDANCE
HINTS AND MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z MON ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES. HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS AT CID AND DBQ.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........66 IN 1932
CEDAR RAPIDS...64 IN 1932
DUBUQUE........62 IN 1895
BURLINGTON.....69 IN 1932

RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 29...

MOLINE.........67 IN 1972
CEDAR RAPIDS...65 IN 1972
DUBUQUE........60 IN 2000
BURLINGTON.....72 IN 1972

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-WARREN.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 407 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

A VORT MAX IS MOVING ACROSS NE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AIDED IN
KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS. THIS WIND....VORT MAX AND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL SERVE AS A LAUNCHING BOARD FOR
TODAYS TEMPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS TODAY COULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE
ARE STARTING OUT IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME AREAS. ALSO WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE QC. NORTH OF THE QC THERE
IS A SCHC FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AND VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

FIRST THE TEMPS...GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO LOW FOR MOST SITES
YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN DELTA BEING 4 DEGREES. YESTERDAY AM IT
APPEARED THAT THE MESOSCALE HOURLY MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
TEMPS AND WINDS FOR YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO START TODAY WITH THE RUC
WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RUC IS HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG MIXING AND
TEMPS STARTING IN THE 50S I THINK THE RUC IS NOT FAR OFF. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TEMPS WOULD BE ANY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING SUNLIGHT. REGARDLESS...WE ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY.

NOW THE WINDS. WINDS HAVE NOT CEASED THIS AM. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE RUC HAS 55 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
OTHER GUIDANCE HAS UPPER TO MID 40 KNOTS IN THIS LAYER. SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL DEFINITELY REACH THE 30 MPH
SUSTAINED CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT IN THIS AREA. AM
CONCERNED THAT WE ARE TOO LOW ON WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FROPA
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND SWITCH THE WIND DIRECTION. THIS
SWITCH WILL STILL KEEP US GUSTY. THINK THAT WE ARE SET UP FOR A
WARM...AND QUITE WINDY DAY AND THAT MY WINDS MAY BE UNDER DONE.

FINALLY THE VORT MAX AND FROPA. HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VORTMAX. LOOKING AT MODEL RH
AND SOUNDINGS WE STAY INCREDIBLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH THE LLVL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORMIDABLE...I THINK SCHC POPS IS WARRANTED BECAUSE OF
THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE HIRES MODELS. I THINK THAT SPRINKLES
MAY BE ALL THAT WE GET DUE TO THE LACK OF SATURATION. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE THE LEAST OF ALL IMPACTS WEATHERWISE TODAY
WITH THE WINDS BEING THE MOST IMPACT.

AFTER THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. THINK THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL SO
THAT WILL NEED TO BE KEPT AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT WILL AID IN SENDING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL NOTED IN 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF WHILE NAM IS CLOSE IF NOT A BIT SLOWER WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS.
USING BLENDED APPROACH WOULD BRING FRONT INTO NORTHERN CWA TOWARD MIDDAY
OR EARLY PM THEN SAGGING SOUTH. PRE-FRONTAL... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DEEPER MIXING WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH OF I-80. MOST CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST
AND BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WHERE READINGS
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S SHOULD FASTER TIMING VERIFY TO THE MID 50S WITH
SLOWER TIMING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRAW DOWN OF SURFACE DEWPTS WITH THE
DEEPER MIXING MAY BRING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED GRASS FIRE DANGER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
CWA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE... STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET. THE JET STRUCTURE AND FAVORED QUADRANT WOULD
FAVOR ANY SURFACE WAVE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH. THUS... ANTICIPATE PROGRESSIVE
FGEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
EXITING EASTERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING. AMERICAN MODELS QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCH
WITHIN THE BAND SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND LAYER PWATS OF
ONLY 0.25 INCH TO 0.4 INCH. DESPITE THIS CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT BURST OF
MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN ALSO PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THUS CANT RULE OUT SNOW ACCUMS OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH MOST FAVORED
AREA TO SEE THESE ACCUMS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LESSER AMOUNTS
IF ANY FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO MORE MARGINAL GROUND AND BL TEMPS AND ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR MIX INITIALLY AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAINS
LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STILL ON MAGNITUDE AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
TEMPS ALTHOUGH NOT FAR OFF FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
IS SUGGESTED AROUND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. OTHERWISE... MAINLY
DRY. BY THE WEEKEND SOME INDICATIONS OF LESS AMPLIFICATION /SEMI-ZONAL/ WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016

HAVE MAINTAINED LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z
SUNDAY...SUPPORTED BY BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VWP WINDS ABOVE 50 KTS
OFF THE DECK. A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND GUSTING NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KTS. LOW VFR
TO POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........66 IN 1932
CEDAR RAPIDS...64 IN 1932
DUBUQUE........62 IN 1895
BURLINGTON.....69 IN 1932

RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 29...

MOLINE.........67 IN 1972
CEDAR RAPIDS...65 IN 1972
DUBUQUE........60 IN 2000
BURLINGTON.....72 IN 1972

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-WARREN.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...GIBBS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1059 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES THIS MORNING. LOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
GRIDS TO MAKE SURE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED AND
BLENDED WELL INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO RE-ISSUE THE SPS TO INCLUDE LOW
HUMIDITIES AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SOME DISCUSSION WITH THE FOREST SERVICE AND A COUPLE OF THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS MORNING...IT WAS DECIDED THAT WHILE
WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AND RH SHOULD BE LOW...OVERALL WE SHOULD
FALL SOMEWHAT SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. FOREST SERVICE ALSO
CONCLUDED THAT FUEL MOISTURES WERE STILL FAIRLY WET ACROSS THE
REGION...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DECISION FROM UPGRADING TO A RED
FLAG. INSTEAD...WILL RUN THE SPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANY POTENTIAL WIND/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IF WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEYOND THE FORECAST...AND/OR IF RH LEVELS FALL BELOW THE
FORECAST...WILL RE-COORDINATE AND RE-EVALUATE.

ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD. NO FORECAST
PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS. TO THE NORTHWEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPRAWLING HIGH COVERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AN INVERSION
IS KEEPING THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AT THE SFC. THIS HAS SET UP A
RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BUT IN THE MID 40S ON MANY OF THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE WEST. SOME VALLEYS IN
THE WEST...LIKE MONTICELLO...DECOUPLED EARLY...SET THEIR LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM POTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM EACH OF THE MODELS. A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PASSES...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT...SUNNY...BREEZY...
AND WARM LATE FEBRUARY DAY. WINDS MAY PUSH 30 TO 35 MPH IN GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. FOR THIS...AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED AS RH
WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO CONSULT WITH THE FOREST
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING ABOUT THE FUEL MOISTURES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY WITH AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN PASSING
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY...ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON GOING AND SOME CAA EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID RANGE OF
CHANCE...FOR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS.  OPTED TO GO MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.  CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. 00Z
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.  A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SWATH
OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. FORCING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.  SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DISCOUNTING THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...IT DOES
APPEAR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION LAGS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. DOESN`T
MEAN WE COULDN`T SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLDER
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE
20S.  ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH...LEADING UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.  OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 KTS AT ABOUT 2K OFF THE GROUND WITH A
SIMILAR CONCERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 710 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS. TO THE NORTHWEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPRAWLING HIGH COVERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AN INVERSION
IS KEEPING THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AT THE SFC. THIS HAS SET UP A
RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BUT IN THE MID 40S ON MANY OF THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE WEST. SOME VALLEYS IN
THE WEST...LIKE MONTICELLO...DECOUPLED EARLY...SET THEIR LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM POTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM EACH OF THE MODELS. A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PASSES...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT...SUNNY...BREEZY...
AND WARM LATE FEBRUARY DAY. WINDS MAY PUSH 30 TO 35 MPH IN GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. FOR THIS...AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED AS RH
WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO CONSULT WITH THE FOREST
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING ABOUT THE FUEL MOISTURES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY WITH AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN PASSING
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY...ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON GOING AND SOME CAA EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID RANGE OF
CHANCE...FOR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS.  OPTED TO GO MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.  CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. 00Z
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.  A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SWATH
OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. FORCING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.  SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DISCOUNTING THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...IT DOES
APPEAR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION LAGS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. DOESN`T
MEAN WE COULDN`T SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLDER
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE
20S.  ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH...LEADING UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.  OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 KTS AT ABOUT 2K OFF THE GROUND WITH A
SIMILAR CONCERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 544 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

Main concerns are with wind and elevated fire weather danger today.
Will be issuing a wind advisory for north of I-70 for today. See the
fire weather section below for the fire weather concerns.

A shortwave trough currently seen on water vapor extending from the
Upper Midwest into the central High Plains will deepen and move
across the region by late this afternoon.  Its attendant cold front
will move across the area this afternoon.  A tight pressure gradient
will set up ahead of it today which will set up very windy
conditions over the area.  KLSX VAD winds at 0930Z are showing 55kts
at 2000ft AGL that will begin to mix down this morning.

In addition, both the latest runs of the HRRR and NSSL WRF are
showing that there will be isolated light showers developing early
to mid afternoon over the southeast half of the CWA ahead of the
cold front.  This will be in response to strong low level moisture
convergence ahead of the front this afternoon.  Have added a slight
chance of showers to accommodate these showers.

Temperatures today will still get well above normal even with clouds
moving into the area because of the warm start and forecast
soundings showing mixing up to 800mb.  Have gone with highs above
the warmest MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

GFS and ECMWF are still showing continuity problems with the storm
that will move across the area on Tuesday.  Will stay a constant
course and keep with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
on Monday night.  Have now just kept that chance of thunderstorms to
the the southeast half of the CWA on Tuesday morning now as both the
GFS and the ECMWF shows the low pressure system racing eastward
early in the day.  Any chance of rain or snow over the area looks
like it will just be on Tuesday evening over the eastern half of the
area.

Wednesday still looks dry before the ECMWF and GFS brings a clipper
across the area on Thursday.  Will continue to carry a chance of
rain or snow with it Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal Wednesday through
Friday before climbing back above normal in time for the weekend.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

VFR through the pd. LLWS should continue through the middle part
of the morning due to a stout low-level jet across the region.
Some of these stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface
today, creating wind gusts of 20-35 kts at times, particularly
from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Surface winds will also
increase today due to the tightening pressure gradient ahead of a
cold front, which is expected to move across the terminals between
18z and 00z. Winds will become northwesterly after fropa. Isolated
rain showers are possible with fropa this afternoon, however the
expected coverage is too low to include SHRA in the TAFs attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

There will be a small area of elevated fire danger over central
Missouri this afternoon. Above normal temperatures and low
dewpoints will help drive minimum relative humidities down into
the 25 to 30 percent range. In addition...southwest winds in the
15 to 20 mph range with higher gusts will shift to the west behind
of cold front in the afternoon. 10 hour dry fuels fell as low as 5
percent at Ashland in Boone County on Saturday afternoon.

Britt


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-
     Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1026 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
DAY TODAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE TONIGHT AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM WILL OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW AND LAST INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...

SFC INVERSION HAS BEEN MIXED OUT IN ALL LOCATIONS...AND TEMPS ARE
RISING STEADILY...ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE L-M 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...AND L-M 60S
THROUGHOUT THE MOST OF THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN.

13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD - 53F IN 1983...AND KAOO - 63F SET IN
1955 APPEAR TO BE THE LOW HANGING FRUIT TO BE HARVESTED BY TODAY`S
WARMTH. THE 63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954 COMES NEXT...WITH KMDT`S 68F
RECORD FROM 1976 SEEMING SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF REACH.

THE COOLER READINGS WILL BE ON THE HILL TOPS WHERE MIXED LAYER IS
NOT AS THICK AND IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPS AT 925MB WILL BE 4
TO 6C COLDER THAN OVER THE SC MTNS.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES FROM LOWER ONTARIO TO MAINE OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.
THE UPPER WAVE IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY AND THE MOISTURE INFLUX IS
MEAGER...ESP BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS TO PA. THE LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE HELD TO VERY CLOSE TO THE FRONT...AND TEMP PROFILE THROUGH
THE TIME OF MOST MOISTURE IS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN. GROUND TEMPS
SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH MIN TEMPS BETWEEN 32F NW AND 45F IN THE
SC COS. TEMPS DO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT ALSO DRIES OUT
QUICKLY. THUS...WHILE SOME LINGERING SHSN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LAURELS IN THE EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY...THEY REALLY SHOULDN/T
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL GENERATE SOME
STRATOCU FOR THE NW BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BECOME SUNNY.
MAXES WILL RUN 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SE THANKS TO THE
DOWNSLOPE AND SUN - BUT BE 2-3F COOLER THAN NORMALS IN THE NW
MTNS.

CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER
FRONT...LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY HANG UP
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. 8H TEMPS DIP ONLY A COUPLE DEGS
C...BUT THE COLD AIR IS PROBABLY VERY SHALLOW. FLURRIES MAY BE
FOUND OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30
POP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.

THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE TO OUR WEST AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE THROUGH. AS THE TROUGH
DIPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IT DEVELOPS A STORM OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY ON TUES. BY THE TIME APPRECIABLE PRECIP GETS TO NWRN
PA...NIGHT WILL HAVE FALLEN. COUPLE THAT WITH THE MORE-CERTAIN
TRACK OF THE LOW /WHICH LOOKS TO PASS OVER NWRN OR CENTRAL PA/ AND
YOU GET THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SOME SNOW TO STICK OVER THE NW.
MOST PLACES IN CENTRAL PA WILL ONLY SEE RAIN AS THE STORM MOVES
THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WED AM. BUT ACCUMS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT/S PACKAGE...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ZR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW CHC OF IT
OCCURRING IN THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE M30S OR MILDER
TUES NIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS MORE CERTAIN ON
TIMING AS MOST GUID HAS IT COMING THRU WED AM. HOWEVER...THE GFS
IS PUMPING OUT PRECIP IN THE COLD AIR ON WED OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS THERE...BUT THE EC WHIPS THE FRONT ON
THRU AND DOES NOT DEVELOP THE WAVE TO OUR S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME LATE THURS TO EARLY FRIDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE
IS MUCH STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME
GEFS MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG
RANGE...UNLESS THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH
A PAIR/TRIPLET OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 28/15Z TAFS THROUGH 29/12Z
ISSUED 1030 AM EST FEB 28 2016

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS 12Z TAF PACKAGE. JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL WIND-RELATED. BLYR
MIXING RESULTS IN 20-25KT SFC GUSTS FROM AROUND 230 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM 230-240 DEGREES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAST-MOVG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI AND UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
MAINTAINED LLWS AFTER 00Z MON HOWEVER LACK OF DECOUPLING MAY FAVOR
MORE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS. GUSTS WITH COLD
FROPA COULD REACH 30KT. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL ALSO
BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE BTWN 06-12Z MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST- FRONTAL IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BFD/JST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY

PM MON-TUE...VFR AND DECREASING WINDS.

TUE NGT...RAIN/SNOW/ICE MIX PSBL NW AIRSPACE. RAIN CENTRAL-EAST.
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

WED...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS PSBL WESTERN 1/3 AIRSPACE.

THU...PM SNOW/SUB-VFR PSBL ESP SOUTHERN 1/2 AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 950 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...TEMPS RISING MORE QUICKLY THAN FCST. MODEL WITH THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE WARMING SO FAR IS THE RAP. USED RAP TO REVISE
TEMPS INTO THE AFTN...THOUGH ITS MAX TEMP IS GENERALLY WITHIN A
DEGREE OF PREV FCST. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO DEWPTS
BASED ON NAM MOS...WHICH WERE A LITTLE LOWER. THUS THE MIN RH
EXPECTATION /FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS/ IS A BIT LOWER TOO. STILL
NOT MEETING CRITERIA FOR FIRE DANGER STMT.

AT 230 AM SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAWN ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND REACH THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MOIST NW FLOW
PERSISTING IN ITS WAKE ALONG THE TN BORDER. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT...AND A RATHER
LIGHT ONE AT THAT...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NC MOUNTAINS.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE WEST END OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
WITH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK AND FAIRLY
DRY SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BUT EVEN THESE DRYING UP BY MIDDAY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION STARTING BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE /WELL..AS THEY HAVE BEEN DOING FOR THIS SYSTEM
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS/ WITH THE ECMWF SPEEDING THE SHORTWAVE
UP WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A NEUTRAL- OR EVEN NEGATIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH...LIFTING THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND DRYING US OUT
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH POSITIVELY-TILTED AND
IS MUCH SLOWER...WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT REMAINING STRETCHED
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES VERY LOW BUT WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OR IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND.

AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY...MIGHT BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED
THUNDER TO THE WX GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES. BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARRIVES...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER AT THIS
TIME...BUT THIS MAY VERY WELL CHANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND LACK
OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...WITH
STRONG SHEAR PUSHING IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE NON-ZERO THREAT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THE HSLC VARIETY. ADDITIONALLY...WPC QPF
VALUES HAVE INCREASED ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS
WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-TERM
SYSTEM...WITH DEEP-LAYER CAA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 8-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLING TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WELL WITH MEAN TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...THOUGH SPECIFICALLY IN OUR AREA WE SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE WIDE TROUGH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE VERY PROGRESSIVE WAVETRAIN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY..SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ABOUND BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING A SURFACE LOW UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. GFS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER DESPITE A GENERALLY
SIMILAR LOOK TO THE UPPER MASS FIELDS. HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A BLEND
OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BUT CAPPED POPS AT LOW CHANCES
FOR NOW...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AS
IT EXITS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
LINED UP TO PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO MANY DETAILS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCLT AND FOOTHILLS...VFR. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE
CLOUD COVER...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW VFR CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOR BE ENOUGH FOR A
EVEN A LOW VFR CIG. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY
MOIST ALOFT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS QUITE LIMITED. LLWS CRITERIA MAY BE MET
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT BENEATH STRONG FLOW ALOFT...PARTICULARLY
OVER KCLT/KHKY. PER COLLABORATION WITH CWSU ZTL...THE CHANCE
OF LLWS AFFECTING OPS AT KCLT EARLY IN THE MORNING IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THAT TAF. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH GUSTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS BACKING OFF
A BIT OVERNIGHT.

AT KAVL...LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD BACK SW AND SEE GUSTS INCREASE
THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
FRONT...BUT CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW FOR A CIG. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE APPEARS TO
REMAIN NEAR THE TN BORDER...AND W OF KAVL. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SW TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH MODEST GUSTS
PERSISTING. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS NEAR
KAVL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT AT THE FIELD.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS MARGINAL. A
MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THRU IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT TODAY...AND EVEN DOWN TO AROUND
25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT DO
NOT QUITE APPEAR TO REACH 25 KNOTS IN AREAS WHERE RH IS LOW. IN
ADDITION...FIRE DANGER RATING CLASS WAS LOW TO MODERATE YESTERDAY...
AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOW TO MODERATE TODAY...AND THEREFORE NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...JAT





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 956 AM PST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH
BAY ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND THEN
INCREASE FURTHER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
CHANGE TO A WET AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SO FAR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN IN OUR CWA OR WATERS
ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LIGHT MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THAT,
LITTLE WEATHER WISE GOING ON TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
MOST SPOTS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
TOMORROW ALLOW TEMPS TO MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN ALL
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THOSE
VALUES SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.

LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RETURN TO
WET WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT A FEW MORE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO FORM NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. ALL MODELS CONFINE MEASURABLE RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF
POINT ARENA...EXCEPT THE NAM WHICH PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST SONOMA COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING...TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA. 70S WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO MOSTLY DEFLECT THIS INCOMING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. ONCE
AGAIN...THE NORTH BAY MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CLIPS OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO FINALLY REACH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH SOME GUSTO. THE INITIAL IMPULSE SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IS
PROJECTED TO GENERATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT AT LEAST TWO STRONGER AND WETTER
STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
BY THE MODELS...THESE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STARTING
NEXT WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. IT`S TOO
EARLY TO PREDICT SPECIFIC TIMING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A WET PATTERN WILL EMERGE
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VFR CONDITION THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AS MOSTLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE TRICKY WITH COOLER TEMPS AND
INCREASE RH IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF CIGS
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. PREVIOUS
TAF PACKAGE HAD CIGS AND DO NOT SEE ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE THEM AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO....MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A FEW HOURS POSS MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TODAY THEN WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KT ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:50 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. WINDS WILL
DECREASE ON MONDAY...BRINGING IMPROVING SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE
WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 837 AM PST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH
BAY ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND THEN
INCREASE FURTHER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
CHANGE TO A WET AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SO FAR NO RAIN HAS FALLEN IN OUR CWA OR WATERS
ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LIGHT MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THAT,
LITTLE WEATHER WISE GOING ON TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
MOST SPOTS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OUR REGION
TOMORROW ALLOW TEMPS TO MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN ALL
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THOSE
VALUES SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.

LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RETURN TO
WET WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT A FEW MORE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO FORM NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. ALL MODELS CONFINE MEASURABLE RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF
POINT ARENA...EXCEPT THE NAM WHICH PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST SONOMA COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING...TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA. 70S WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO MOSTLY DEFLECT THIS INCOMING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. ONCE
AGAIN...THE NORTH BAY MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CLIPS OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO FINALLY REACH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH SOME GUSTO. THE INITIAL IMPULSE SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IS
PROJECTED TO GENERATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT AT LEAST TWO STRONGER AND WETTER
STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
BY THE MODELS...THESE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STARTING
NEXT WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. IT`S TOO
EARLY TO PREDICT SPECIFIC TIMING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A WET PATTERN WILL EMERGE
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST SUNDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SAN FRANCISCO
EXPLORATORIUM RADIOMETER AS WELL AS THE SAN JOSE RADIOMETER SHOW A
DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SO DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY RAIN AT THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION THERE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 12 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY...BRINGING IMPROVING SEA SURFACE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: MM


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 317 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
315 PM CST

THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH AN INVERSION IN
PLACE AROUND 5000 FT THIS HAS LARGELY RESULTED IN JUST CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. IN THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE
SEEING A WEAKENING OF THE WINDS. EXPECT AFTER THIS LULL IN THE
WINDS THAT FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL MAKE
FOR A BLUSTERY EVENING UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS APPROACHING 35
KT COMBINED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF MORE SO
THIS EVENING AS STRATUS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND PRESSURE RISES SHIFT
EAST.

A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
VERY WIDESPREAD. THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER A COLDER START TO THE
DAY...WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 PM CST

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS STILL MEDIUM AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE LOW/S
PATH...SPEED...AND STRENGTH WHICH IS WHY CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
WHERE I/D LIKE. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD SUPPORT A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LEE COUNTY THROUGH COOK COUNTY NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. WILL HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT ISSUE A SPS HIGHLIGHTING
A WINTRY MIX AND MESSY COMMUTE TUESDAY MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT IS A WINTRY MIX CONTAINING FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IF NOT LONGER.  AREAS
NORTH OF I-88 WILL LIKELY TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WILL TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF SNOW CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH THE SNOW SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACCUMULATING ICE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. MAX ICE ACCUMULATIONS
GREATER THAN 0.05 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80 WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA.  KEPT TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
LESS THAN 0.1 OF AN INCH...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD GET NEAR 0.1
INCHES.

FOR SNOW...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...BUT
LEANING TOWARD THE MODELS THAT FEATURE A STRONGER TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE MODELS KEEP SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH RAISED SNOW TOTALS TO 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTH OF I-80 WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH OF A MIDWAY
AIRPORT TO ROCHELLE IL LINE.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE FORECAST TO
RECEIVE 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH AREAS SOUTH OF A LA SALLE IL TO
VALPARAISO INDIANA LINE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

METEOROLOGICAL REASONING FOR SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK...

THE EURO CONTINUES TO HAVE A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WHILE
THE GFS AND NAM FEATURE BACK SIDE SNOW AND A MUCH STRONGER VORT
STREAMER AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN IL TUESDAY AND REACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT HANGS OVER NORTHERN IL MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG IT. THE
LOW LEVELS COOL TO BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD.  PRECIP TYPES WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN DUE TO THE MELTING LAYER ALOFT. EPV IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORCING AT THIS TIME BUT STILL THINKING PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE AND FALL AT A DECENT
CLIP.  COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER
HOUR...AND COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET DURING THE RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION. THE WINTRY MIX BECOMES SNOW AS THE UPPER LEVELS COOL
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX AND
THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX THE LONGEST. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
STEADILY COOL...SURFACE WARMING AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL
ALLOW PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SOURCE OF FORCING SHIFTS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NAM FEATURES EPV ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH COULD
SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.  THE GFS DOES NOT FEATURE EPV SO OPTED TO GO WITH
LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH QUICKER SOLUTION
AND IS PULLING SNOW OUT OF THE REGION.  RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
TUESDAY EVENING TO COINCIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS AND NAM AND THE
STRONGER TROUGH THEY BOTH FEATURE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MINIMAL AT
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN SNOW.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT SURFACE
LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.  PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE WARNING AREA LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE LOW...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW/S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST IN THE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEADS TO WARMING LATE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION SATURDAY.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD IS ON WINDS. CURRENT
CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY LIMITING DEEP MIXING TODAY. THERE ARE SOME
MUCH STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE CURRENT LEVEL OF THE
INVERSION...BUT WE ARE STRUGGLING TO GET THERE AND THE TROUGH AXIS
IS APPROACHING. WITH A PEAK WIND EARLIER AT KUGN OF 40 KT...HAVE
HELD ONTO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF KEEPING MOST GUSTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30 KT RANGE AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KT. AREA VWP`S
ALSO SUGGEST WE NEED TO MIX TO 4000 FT TO GET ABOVE 40 KT GUSTS WHICH
IS ABOUT 1000 FT ABOVE WHAT CURRENT AMDAR SUGGEST AS WELL.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY AND
DECREASE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT THOUGH WILL STILL HOLD A VCSH AS COVERAGE IS A CONCERN.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A SHOWER AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN
THE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH THINK THE INVERSION NOT
BREAKING THAT THEY WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. ALSO WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL. HELD TO VCSH AS IT SEEMS A
REASONABLE COURSE FOR NOW.

CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. 3 MB
PRESSURE RISES OF 6-8 MB PER THE RAP SUGGESTS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING OUT OF A NW DIRECTION. MIXING SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND THUS NOT EXPECTING GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT. COULD ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST AFTER THE PEAK
WIND TIME. AFTER TONIGHT...A QUIETER PERIOD ON MONDAY...THOUGH
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND WITH DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO NE
MONDAY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ON THE DOCKET.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
315 PM CST

WILL LET THE GALE WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS OCNL GALES
ARE STILL PSBL IN THE NSH WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT WILL THEN BE NEEDED
FOR ALL OF THE NSH WATERS THROUGH EARLY IF NOT MID WEEK. PERIODS OF
STRONG AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH WAVES THROUGH MID WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE LAKE WITH ITS COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI AND THE IA/IL STATE LINE.  WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE NSH WATERS AND SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE.  HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY WHILE A LOW PASSES NORTH OF
THE LAKE. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GALES OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.  THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE TUESDAY
AND REACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.  LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

IN...NONE.

LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
     10 PM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM SUNDAY TO 9
     AM MONDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Cold front has just crossed the Illinois/Iowa border as of 2 pm and
is steadily marching east. Increase in cloud cover has started to
temper some of the wind gusts across the western CWA, and am
planning to let the wind advisory expire west from about Bloomington-
Taylorville westward at 4 pm. However, still quite a bit of sun
across the southeast third of the CWA, which has helped with the
mixing of the winds down to the surface. Have had some recent
sustained winds of 40-45 mph from Paris to Lawrenceville with gusts
of 50-55 mph. HRRR model shows a few more hours of strong gusts over
there. Across the southeast third of the forecast area, the advisory
has been extended until 6 pm.

The front should be near I-57 by 7 pm and exiting the southeast CWA
around 9 pm. Strong pressure rises behind the front will likely
bring additional gusts of 35-40 mph northwest of I-55 early this
evening, but the gusts should be settling a bit by the time eastern
Illinois is affected. Rain-wise, temperature/dewpoint spreads are
currently around 20 degrees, although high-resolution model guidance
still tries to generate a few showers over the next few hours. Will
maintain generally 20% PoP`s into early evening, although a bit
higher near the Indiana border.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Monday will see the return of southwest flow in the morning, helping
to recover from the brief push of cold air behind Sunday`s cold
front. Some sunshine should help high temps range from the upper 50s
near Danville in eastern IL, to the lower 60s toward Jacksonville
and west central IL.

A storm system is still taking aim on the region for Tuesday. The
12z models are in better agreement, with the GFS, NAM, and Canadian
GEM all taking a low pressure center roughly up the I-70 corridor
later Tuesday morning into afternoon. The ECMWF is farther south
with the track, taking the low across the far southern tip of IL
Tuesday morning, which is 6 hours faster that the other models.

The thermal profiles in the GFS group look to support rain initially
Monday evening as rain develops Rushville to Bloomington
northwestward, then sleet or freezing rain could develop late Monday
night into Tuesday morning north of Peoria. As temps rise above
freezing on Tuesday, precip type should transition to mainly rain,
but sleet or snow will still be possible north of a line from
Rushville to Lincoln to Bloomington through the day. As the surface
low passes across southern IL around mid-day, colder air will be
drawn into the northwest side of the system, changing precip over to
snow in our area northwest of the Illinois river initially. The
change-over to snow should continue Tues evening as colder air
arrives. However, precip potential will decrease as well, so
additional snowfall accums Tues night should be more like a dusting.
Through the whole system evolution, the better chances of snow accum
will be mainly north of Peoria, where up to an inch of snow could
accumulate. Along and north of I-74 will have potential for a few
tenths of an inch as the system departs east of Illinois.

All precip should be done by sunrise on Wed, as high pressure
advances into IL from the west. However, the next system will
quickly start of affect the area later Wed night, as rain or snow
develops in the warm advection area ahead of the low. The low path
looks to remain far enough south of our counties for the precip to
be primarily snow in our counties. Forecast QPF amounts vary widely,
with the Canadian showing potential for a couple of inches snow
accum, mainly in our northern counties, but around an inch even
south of I-72. GFS shows around an inch of snow occurring from west
to east Wednesday into Wed evening. The ECMWF has much less moisture
available, with only a dusting of snow. Will keep the chance PoPs
from the blended initialization, and keep snow as the primary precip
type north of I-72, and a rain/snow mix south of there on Thursday,
with precip as all snow Thursday night before precip ends.

Beyond that, a weak shortwave is projected to pass across northern
IL Sat into Sat night, with spotty rain or snow chances north of our
forecast area. We could see sprinkles or flurries develop, but most
areas should remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the wind. Southwest
winds will continue to gust over 35 knots through mid afternoon,
but may linger closer to about 23Z at KCMI. A cold front will move
in from the west, decreasing winds a bit before shifting them to
the northwest. Frontal passage should be around 21-22Z from KPIA-
KSPI, ranging to around 00-01Z at KCMI. Immediately behind the
front, a few hours of MVFR ceilings appear likely before skies
clear. Winds will trend back toward the southwest overnight and
become a bit gusty again late Monday morning, although not as much
as today.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ044>046-054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton/Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1202 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...1030 AM CST

WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY AT
ROCKFORD AND WE ARE SEEING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO
EVEN A 61 A KMDW AS OF 1045 AM PER 1 MINUTE KMDW OBS. SW WINDS
ARE INCREASING AREA WIDE AS THE 925-850 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS
BEFORE WE START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE COLD FRONT MID
AFTERNOON. KLOT VWP DOES DEPICT 925-850 WINDS DECREASING SOME THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT WE ARE STARTING TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A NARROW WINDOW AS WELL OF WIND GUSTS
GETTING INTO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AS AS A NOTE...THERE WILL BE A
WEAKENING OF THE WINDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
WAVE WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY EVENING UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION.

HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC RUC FORECAST
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GETTING QUITE STEEP THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS. THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT
THE ACTIVITY IN MINNESOTA...CURRENTLY QUITE ROBUST...FROM HOLDING
TOGETHER QUITE AS WELL IN OUR AREA.

KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...
411 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH...WHICH CERTAINLY LOOKS POISED TO COME IN LIKE A LION THIS
YEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...POORLY TIMED SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY MORNING
MARCH 1ST...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON THURSDAY.

ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER LITTLE IF ANY SNOWPACK WILL SUPPORT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
WARMTH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MILD START.  ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS ALSO
WERE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DESPITE THE LINGERING SNOW
COVER FROM THE EVENT LAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
QUICKLY SNOW COVER IS ERODING AND HOW THIS MIGHT MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. WILL PLAN TO KEEP NW INDIANA
JUST A BIT COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE US PLAYING CATCH UP THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
START TO CLIMB RAPIDLY IN THAT AREA AS WELL.

IT IS INTERESTING AND SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT RECORD HIGHS ON
FEBRUARY 28 FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED BASED ON VALUES FOR SURROUNDING DAYS...AND
EVEN COMPARED TO THE 29TH WHICH HAS HAD FAR FEWER CHANCES TO
EXPERIENCE CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES. FOR ROCKFORD TODAY THE RECORD
HIGH FROM 1932 IS JUST 56 WHILE IT IS 68 ON THE 27TH...64 ON THE
29TH...AND 66 ON MARCH 1ST. FOR CHICAGO TODAY THE RECORD HIGH FROM
ALL THE WAY BACK IN 1895 IS JUST 61 WHILE IT IS 75 ON THE 27TH...65
ON THE 29TH...AND 71 ON MARCH 1ST.  SO WHILE IT IS LIKELY THOUGH OF
COURSE NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN WE WILL END UP BREAKING THESE RECORD
HIGHS...THEY DO APPEAR SOMEWHAT OVERDUE TO BE BROKEN FOR THIS DATE.

THE OTHER AND ACTUALLY MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...LIKELY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH
SUSTAINED OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
ZONE.  AGAIN...WITH SNOW COVER OVER NW INDIANA THE SOMEWHAT
INHIBITED MIXING MEANS GUSTS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG AS IN AREAS
FARTHER WEST.

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN SOME BRIEF
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT AND RECOVER JUST AS QUICKLY MONDAY WHEN WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT BUT ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.  IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC...BUT SNOW
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS AND UNFORTUNATELY BE
FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD AROUND THE MORNING RUSH.

LENNING

&&

.LONG TERM...
411 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK
LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

MILDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND UNDER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR NEXT
SUNDAY.

LENNING

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD IS ON WINDS. CURRENT
CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY LIMITING DEEP MIXING TODAY. THERE ARE SOME
MUCH STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE CURRENT LEVEL OF THE
INVERSION...BUT WE ARE STRUGGLING TO GET THERE AND THE TROUGH AXIS
IS APPROACHING. WITH A PEAK WIND EARLIER AT KUGN OF 40 KT...HAVE
HELD ONTO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF KEEPING MOST GUSTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30 KT RANGE AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KT. AREA VWP`S
ALSO SUGGEST WE NEED TO MIX TO 4000 FT TO GET ABOVE 40 KT GUSTS WHICH
IS ABOUT 1000 FT ABOVE WHAT CURRENT AMDAR SUGGEST AS WELL.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WESTERLY AND
DECREASE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT THOUGH WILL STILL HOLD A VCSH AS COVERAGE IS A CONCERN.
CERTAINLY COULD BE A SHOWER AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN
THE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH THINK THE INVERSION NOT
BREAKING THAT THEY WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. ALSO WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL. HELD TO VCSH AS IT SEEMS A
REASONABLE COURSE FOR NOW.

CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. 3 MB
PRESSURE RISES OF 6-8 MB PER THE RAP SUGGESTS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING OUT OF A NW DIRECTION. MIXING SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND THUS NOT EXPECTING GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT. COULD ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST AFTER THE PEAK
WIND TIME. AFTER TONIGHT...A QUIETER PERIOD ON MONDAY...THOUGH
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND WITH DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO NE
MONDAY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ON THE DOCKET.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...

422 AM...A COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS LOW WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND DID NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THIS LOW WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS THEN REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 4 PM
     SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
     10 PM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM SUNDAY TO 9
     AM MONDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1129 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Latest surface map showed cold front extending from near Kansas City
northeast into east central Wisconsin. Pressure gradient ahead of
this front resulting in wind gusts already around 35 mph in
several locations, and 10 am observation at Decatur came in with
45 mph. Latest HRRR guidance has the front coming into the
northwest CWA around mid-afternoon. The stronger wind gusts of
40-45 mph will continue until then, when the gradient relaxes a
bit immediately ahead of the front. Wind advisory was adjusted
earlier to include the entire CWA, and no changes will be made to
the wind advisory valid period at this time.

Adjustments to the hourly grids have been sent for the sky trends
and the rain chances, adjusting the eastern CWA to focus more on
in the late afternoon. Temperatures appear on track and only made
minor adjustments for the hourly grids the next couple hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Will be plenty of sunshine today and along with strong waa due to
south-southwest winds, just ahead of a weak front moving through the
area this afternoon. Gradient ahead of the front is very tight and
strong winds are expected. Model data/guidance and bufkit soundings
support sustained winds or around 30 mph with possible gusts up to
near 45 mph from later this morning through early afternoon. Once
the front gets closer to the CWA, strongest winds shift into
eastern IL with gradient loosening some. Will be going with a wind
advisory for later this morning through early afternoon over most
of central and eastern IL. Only counties not included will be
along I-70 and to the south...southeast IL. Front does not have a
lot of moisture to work with until this afternoon as it gets thru
most of the area. However, there is still a front, so going with
slight chance of showers along front, mainly east of the IL river
and all the way to the IN border.

Temps will be much warm than yesterday and with all the snow now
melted and strong waa and lots of sunshine, believe temps will
actually get warmer than first forecast. So have increased high
temps across the region for this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

A blustery evening becomes dominated by northwesterly winds and is a
bit cooler than the night before with cool air filtering in behind
the front.  Models are inconsistent with the development of the
precip along and ahead of the boundary even going into the evening
hours.  GFS and ECMWF slightly wetter than the unusually drier NAM.
BUFKit soundings not working with much in the way of moisture, but
cannot leave out a low chance in the far east in the early evening
hours.  Otherwise cooler tonight...but the cool air does not take
over as Monday is slated to be another mild day with highs in the
upper 50s/lower 60s with the winds becoming southerly again as the
brief surface ridging slips to the east.  The next storm developing
over the Plains starts to take shape and precip chances spread into
the region Monday night and into Tuesday.  Models seem to be coming
around to a less intensely developed surface system with the open
wave aloft.  Will be moving through the mean flow rather quickly and
wrapping up by Tuesday night. Forecast soundings are not cold enough
to warrant a long time frame of snow.  The QPF fields are slowly
losing the look of the deformation zone.  Precip will start as rain
and as cold air moves in to the back side of the system, rain or
snow will be NW of the I-55 corridor.  However, even if the snow
were to develop, very little if any accumulation is expected in such
a wet environment.  Early Wednesday morning clearly the coldest
morning in the forecast with the chilly Arctic air in place behind
the boundary.  A quick clipper Wed night and into Thursday brings
the next chances for accumulating snow, should the thermal profile
hold. Wed and Thu chilly with highs in the 30s/lower 40s, slightly
below seasonal norms. Temps begin warming at the end of the week and
into next weekend with the warm air from the western ridge slowly
making its way into the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the wind. Southwest
winds will continue to gust over 35 knots through mid afternoon,
but may linger closer to about 23Z at KCMI. A cold front will move
in from the west, decreasing winds a bit before shifting them to
the northwest. Frontal passage should be around 21-22Z from KPIA-
KSPI, ranging to around 00-01Z at KCMI. Immediately behind the
front, a few hours of MVFR ceilings appear likely before skies
clear. Winds will trend back toward the southwest overnight and
become a bit gusty again late Monday morning, although not as much
as today.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1048 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
1030 AM CST

WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY AT
ROCKFORD AND WE ARE SEEING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO
EVEN A 61 A KMDW AS OF 1045 AM PER 1 MINUTE KMDW OBS. SW WINDS
ARE INCREASING AREA WIDE AS THE 925-850 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS
BEFORE WE START TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE COLD FRONT MID
AFTERNOON. KLOT VWP DOES DEPICT 925-850 WINDS DECREASING SOME THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT WE ARE STARTING TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A NARROW WINDOW AS WELL OF WIND GUSTS
GETTING INTO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AS AS A NOTE...THERE WILL BE A
WEAKENING OF THE WINDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
WAVE WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY EVENING UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION.

HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC RUC FORECAST
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GETTING QUITE STEEP THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS. THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WHICH COULD
BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT
THE ACTIVITY IN MINNESOTA...CURRENTLY QUITE ROBUST...FROM HOLDING
TOGETHER QUITE AS WELL IN OUR AREA.

KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...
411 AM CST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH...WHICH CERTAINLY LOOKS POISED TO COME IN LIKE A LION THIS
YEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...POORLY TIMED SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY MORNING
MARCH 1ST...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON THURSDAY.

ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER LITTLE IF ANY SNOWPACK WILL SUPPORT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
WARMTH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MILD START.  ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS ALSO
WERE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DESPITE THE LINGERING SNOW
COVER FROM THE EVENT LAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
QUICKLY SNOW COVER IS ERODING AND HOW THIS MIGHT MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. WILL PLAN TO KEEP NW INDIANA
JUST A BIT COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE US PLAYING CATCH UP THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
START TO CLIMB RAPIDLY IN THAT AREA AS WELL.

IT IS INTERESTING AND SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT RECORD HIGHS ON
FEBRUARY 28 FOR BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED BASED ON VALUES FOR SURROUNDING DAYS...AND
EVEN COMPARED TO THE 29TH WHICH HAS HAD FAR FEWER CHANCES TO
EXPERIENCE CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES. FOR ROCKFORD TODAY THE RECORD
HIGH FROM 1932 IS JUST 56 WHILE IT IS 68 ON THE 27TH...64 ON THE
29TH...AND 66 ON MARCH 1ST. FOR CHICAGO TODAY THE RECORD HIGH FROM
ALL THE WAY BACK IN 1895 IS JUST 61 WHILE IT IS 75 ON THE 27TH...65
ON THE 29TH...AND 71 ON MARCH 1ST.  SO WHILE IT IS LIKELY THOUGH OF
COURSE NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN WE WILL END UP BREAKING THESE RECORD
HIGHS...THEY DO APPEAR SOMEWHAT OVERDUE TO BE BROKEN FOR THIS DATE.

THE OTHER AND ACTUALLY MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...LIKELY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH
SUSTAINED OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
ZONE.  AGAIN...WITH SNOW COVER OVER NW INDIANA THE SOMEWHAT
INHIBITED MIXING MEANS GUSTS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS STRONG AS IN AREAS
FARTHER WEST.

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN SOME BRIEF
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT AND RECOVER JUST AS QUICKLY MONDAY WHEN WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT BUT ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.  IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC...BUT SNOW
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS AND UNFORTUNATELY BE
FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD AROUND THE MORNING RUSH.

LENNING

&&

.LONG TERM...
411 AM CST

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DURING THE WEEK
LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

MILDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND UNDER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S AGAIN FOR NEXT
SUNDAY.

LENNING

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

557 PM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS THE WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS...ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

ONE MINUTE WINDS/GUSTS AT ORD HAVE BEEN STRONG/GUSTY MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG WINDS WILL
BECOME IS A BIT LOW...BUT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 30 KT RANGE LOOKS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH SOME...BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG...AND DIRECTIONS
WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FRONT/WIND DIRECTION SHIFT...BUT
TIMING MAY NEED SOME REFINEMENT AS IT THE FRONT ARRIVES. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING TURNING WESTERLY AROUND 10KT OVERNIGHT. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 30 KT BY
MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO A MID DECK LATER TODAY WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR CIGS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS ALSO WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHORT TERM/HI RES
GUIDANCE IS FOCUSED ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ADJUSTED TIMING FOR VICINITY MENTION BUT IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE THEN A SHORT DURATION TEMPO OR PERHAPS EVEN PREVAILING
SHOWERS WILL BE NEEDED. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THESE COULD BE
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. PRECIP ALSO APPEARS TO DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF RFD...SO DRY FORECAST THERE. CMS

&&

.MARINE...

422 AM...A COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS LOW WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND DID NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THIS LOW WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS THEN REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

IN...WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 4 PM
     SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
     10 PM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM SUNDAY TO 9
     AM MONDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Latest surface map showed cold front extending from near Kansas City
northeast into east central Wisconsin. Pressure gradient ahead of
this front resulting in wind gusts already around 35 mph in
several locations, and 10 am observation at Decatur came in with
45 mph. Latest HRRR guidance has the front coming into the
northwest CWA around mid-afternoon. The stronger wind gusts of
40-45 mph will continue until then, when the gradient relaxes a
bit immediately ahead of the front. Wind advisory was adjusted
earlier to include the entire CWA, and no changes will be made to
the wind advisory valid period at this time.

Adjustments to the hourly grids have been sent for the sky trends
and the rain chances, adjusting the eastern CWA to focus more on
in the late afternoon. Temperatures appear on track and only made
minor adjustments for the hourly grids the next couple hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

Will be plenty of sunshine today and along with strong waa due to
south-southwest winds, just ahead of a weak front moving through the
area this afternoon. Gradient ahead of the front is very tight and
strong winds are expected. Model data/guidance and bufkit soundings
support sustained winds or around 30 mph with possible gusts up to
near 45 mph from later this morning through early afternoon. Once
the front gets closer to the CWA, strongest winds shift into
eastern IL with gradient loosening some. Will be going with a wind
advisory for later this morning through early afternoon over most
of central and eastern IL. Only counties not included will be
along I-70 and to the south...southeast IL. Front does not have a
lot of moisture to work with until this afternoon as it gets thru
most of the area. However, there is still a front, so going with
slight chance of showers along front, mainly east of the IL river
and all the way to the IN border.

Temps will be much warm than yesterday and with all the snow now
melted and strong waa and lots of sunshine, believe temps will
actually get warmer than first forecast. So have increased high
temps across the region for this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

A blustery evening becomes dominated by northwesterly winds and is a
bit cooler than the night before with cool air filtering in behind
the front.  Models are inconsistent with the development of the
precip along and ahead of the boundary even going into the evening
hours.  GFS and ECMWF slightly wetter than the unusually drier NAM.
BUFKit soundings not working with much in the way of moisture, but
cannot leave out a low chance in the far east in the early evening
hours.  Otherwise cooler tonight...but the cool air does not take
over as Monday is slated to be another mild day with highs in the
upper 50s/lower 60s with the winds becoming southerly again as the
brief surface ridging slips to the east.  The next storm developing
over the Plains starts to take shape and precip chances spread into
the region Monday night and into Tuesday.  Models seem to be coming
around to a less intensely developed surface system with the open
wave aloft.  Will be moving through the mean flow rather quickly and
wrapping up by Tuesday night. Forecast soundings are not cold enough
to warrant a long time frame of snow.  The QPF fields are slowly
losing the look of the deformation zone.  Precip will start as rain
and as cold air moves in to the back side of the system, rain or
snow will be NW of the I-55 corridor.  However, even if the snow
were to develop, very little if any accumulation is expected in such
a wet environment.  Early Wednesday morning clearly the coldest
morning in the forecast with the chilly Arctic air in place behind
the boundary.  A quick clipper Wed night and into Thursday brings
the next chances for accumulating snow, should the thermal profile
hold. Wed and Thu chilly with highs in the 30s/lower 40s, slightly
below seasonal norms. Temps begin warming at the end of the week and
into next weekend with the warm air from the western ridge slowly
making its way into the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs as a
cold front quickly pushes through the are this afternoon. Clear
skies will give way to some SCT-BKN cirrus ahead of the front,
then stratocu or cu around 3.5 to 4kft will develop just ahead of
the front and continue into the afternoon. Once the front moves
through the area during the afternoon, clouds should become more
scattered and then become clear during the evening hours. Some
very light pcpn is possible at all sites except PIA, but chances
small enough that an addition to the TAFs is not warranted at this
time. Wind speeds will be the big issue. Winds will be south-
southwest ahead of the front and then become west to northwest
behind the front this afternoon and into this evening. Wind speeds
will quickly increase and become gusty to around 34kts this
morning. Then around noon speeds will increase more and reach up
to 39kts at all sites for the afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease
as the front pushes past during the late afternoon/evening time
frame. Wind gusts will disappear and overall speeds will drop,
sometime in the evening around 03z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 346 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. RUC AND
HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING OVER WEST
CENTRAL AREA AND EXPANDING EASTWARD. WENT WITH HIGHER CONSRAW POPS
GIVEN MOS AND HIRES TRENDS.

FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WREAKING HAVOC ON DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME CONSENSUS HAS BEEN REACHED
AMONG MODELS ON BASIC SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...MANY DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS AND STILL WITHIN EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DESPITE BEING WITHIN 48 HOURS OF PCPN ONSET.
MOST OF THIS DISPARITY COMES FROM FACT THAT MAIN JET ENERGY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND WILL NOT BE SAMPLED FULLY
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY. THIS ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH THEN EAST OUT OF THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES IS
PROVING PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL MODELS. WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JET WILL
LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW AND ITS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS AN ISSUE AMONG MODELS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
DEVELOPS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. FGEN FORCING WITH THIS ADVECTION PROCESS WILL LEAD
TO EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH TO BEGIN. AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST
TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVIER. COMBINATION OF SFC
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C WILL LEAD TO AREA OF
FREEZING RAIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. 12Z SUITE HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND ARE ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISING A
STRONG WARM SURGE THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY. GEM AND ECMWF
ARE STRONGER WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN FASTER TUESDAY. THESE LATTER
MODELS ARE GENERALLY PREFERRED BUT THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING A PERIOD
OF MIXED/FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY.

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME OF
THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TO GET MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND FULLY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS GIVEN COMPLEX UPPER
AIR PATTERN AND INTERACTIONS. STILL RETAINED ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH
MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND
DEPENDING ON FINAL TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS A NARROW RIBBON OF ICE
ACCUMS COULD COME CLOSE TO 0.20-0.25 INCHES. AGAIN...LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY BUT SOME TYPE OF HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY GIVEN MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS BEFORE
ENDING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THIS PERIOD REMAIN MURKY GIVEN MODEL
DISPARITY BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WITH WRAP
AROUND AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.

STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS IN THE MIDST OF A HIGHLY ENERGETIC
PATTERN WEDNESDAY AMID ERN CONUS TROF/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
QUICK RETURN TO NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION W/ RETURN
FLOW/WAA REGIME ESTABLISHING.

SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AS
LOW AS -15C...WHICH COULD BRING A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER TO FAVORED
AREAS. GRIDS SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE SPEED/EVOLUTION OF THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SRN CANADA
WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC/FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC
DETAILS AT THIS POINT...WITH LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD
SUPPORT NICE DENDRITIC GROWTH...HOWEVER STRENGTH OF FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CURTAIL ANY SPECIFICS BEYOND CONSENSUS MODEL
BLEND CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WED-
FRI ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS/20S...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE REGION.

PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT FRIDAY/SAT TIMEFRAME WITH RIDGING/WAA
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING A PASSING WAVE SOMETIME
SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN PINPOINTING DETAILS
WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD 6-7 DAYS OUT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY AND INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S SUNDAY.
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NUDGED
WINDS UPWARDS AT KSBN WITH STRONGER MIXING OCCURRING THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EITHER SIDE OF 00Z MON TO HELP
CALM THE HIGHER GUSTS DOWN AND REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS. LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR (PRESENTLY LITTLE SIGN OF THESE CONDITIONS UPSTREAM)
POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY ON MONDAY WITH NW FLOW
QUICKLY BACKING TO THE SW DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ017-018-
     023>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>016-020-022.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ004-005-015-
     016-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...FISHER


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1143 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

COLD FRONT AT 11 AM WAS ROUGHLY JUST NW OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO
VINTON. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE STRONG OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT SO FAR NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
OUTSIDE A FEW SITES REPORTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH FOR
LESS THAN ONE HOUR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A BAND OF
THICK CI REACHING SW TO NE OVER THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER
AREA OF THICKENING MID CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL IA.
THIS HAS SLIGHTLY SQUELCHED TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS LIMITED THE
MIX DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SO FAR.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY TWEAK MAX TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD...ADJUST WINDS DOWNWARD AND ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WELL POST FRONTAL THAT ARE OCCURRING IN NW AND N
CENTRAL IA. A SEPARATE AXIS OF STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS AHEAD
OF A PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER THE NEB/IA BORDER IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSH
THROUGH THE EAST EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE TIMING WILL NOT BE
OPTIMAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING TRENDS CLOSELY WITH THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA AS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF AND PERHAPS DIMINISH
A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DIRECTIONAL SHIFT
TO W-NW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP INTACT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

A VORT MAX IS MOVING ACROSS NE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AIDED IN
KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOWS. THIS WIND....VORT MAX AND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL SERVE AS A LAUNCHING BOARD FOR
TODAYS TEMPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS TODAY COULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE
ARE STARTING OUT IN THE LOW 50S IN SOME AREAS. ALSO WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE QC. NORTH OF THE QC THERE
IS A SCHC FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AND VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

FIRST THE TEMPS...GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO LOW FOR MOST SITES
YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN DELTA BEING 4 DEGREES. YESTERDAY AM IT
APPEARED THAT THE MESOSCALE HOURLY MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
TEMPS AND WINDS FOR YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO START TODAY WITH THE RUC
WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RUC IS HIGHEST OF ALL GUIDANCE. WITH THE STRONG MIXING AND
TEMPS STARTING IN THE 50S I THINK THE RUC IS NOT FAR OFF. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TEMPS WOULD BE ANY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING SUNLIGHT. REGARDLESS...WE ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY.

NOW THE WINDS. WINDS HAVE NOT CEASED THIS AM. LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE RUC HAS 55 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
OTHER GUIDANCE HAS UPPER TO MID 40 KNOTS IN THIS LAYER. SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL DEFINITELY REACH THE 30 MPH
SUSTAINED CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT IN THIS AREA. AM
CONCERNED THAT WE ARE TOO LOW ON WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FROPA
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND SWITCH THE WIND DIRECTION. THIS
SWITCH WILL STILL KEEP US GUSTY. THINK THAT WE ARE SET UP FOR A
WARM...AND QUITE WINDY DAY AND THAT MY WINDS MAY BE UNDER DONE.

FINALLY THE VORT MAX AND FROPA. HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VORTMAX. LOOKING AT MODEL RH
AND SOUNDINGS WE STAY INCREDIBLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH THE LLVL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORMIDABLE...I THINK SCHC POPS IS WARRANTED BECAUSE OF
THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE HIRES MODELS. I THINK THAT SPRINKLES
MAY BE ALL THAT WE GET DUE TO THE LACK OF SATURATION. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE THE LEAST OF ALL IMPACTS WEATHERWISE TODAY
WITH THE WINDS BEING THE MOST IMPACT.

AFTER THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. THINK THAT WINDS MAY STAY UP DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL SO
THAT WILL NEED TO BE KEPT AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT WILL AID IN SENDING COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL NOTED IN 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WHILE NAM IS
CLOSE IF NOT A BIT SLOWER WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. USING BLENDED
APPROACH WOULD BRING FRONT INTO NORTHERN CWA TOWARD MIDDAY OR
EARLY PM THEN SAGGING SOUTH. PRE-FRONTAL... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DEEPER MIXING WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH OF I-80.
MOST CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST AND BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE
ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WHERE READINGS COULD RANGE FROM THE MID
40S SHOULD FASTER TIMING VERIFY TO THE MID 50S WITH SLOWER TIMING.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRAW DOWN OF SURFACE DEWPTS WITH THE
DEEPER MIXING MAY BRING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER MAINLY SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SAGGING
 SOUTH THROUGH CWA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE... STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF H25 JET. THE JET STRUCTURE AND FAVORED QUADRANT WOULD FAVOR ANY
SURFACE WAVE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH. THUS... ANTICIPATE PROGRESSIVE
FGEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRAVERSING THE CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT EXITING EASTERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING. AMERICAN MODELS
QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCH WITHIN THE BAND SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN
MODEST FORCING AND LAYER PWATS OF ONLY 0.25 INCH TO 0.4 INCH.
DESPITE THIS CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT BURST OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN ALSO PRESENCE
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS CANT RULE OUT SNOW ACCUMS OF A QUICK
1-2 INCHES WITH MOST FAVORED AREA TO SEE THESE ACCUMS BEING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LESSER AMOUNTS IF ANY FURTHER SOUTH
DUE TO MORE MARGINAL GROUND AND BL TEMPS AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR
MIX INITIALLY AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN PRECIP TYPE AND
AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY STILL ON MAGNITUDE AND TRACK
OF FRONTAL WAVE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TUESDAY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPS ALTHOUGH NOT FAR OFF FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SUGGESTED AROUND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW OR RAIN. OTHERWISE... MAINLY DRY. BY THE WEEKEND SOME
INDICATIONS OF LESS AMPLIFICATION /SEMI-ZONAL/ WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING
THROUGH WI WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE THE WIND
DIRECTION FROM SW TO WEST...AND THEN NW BY EVENING. AN AXIS OF LOW
CLOUDS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF MFR
CIGS AND THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH AT THIS
TIME LOOK TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 MID OT LATE AFTERNOON AND
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE LIGHT FROM
THE W AND THEN SW. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WARRANTING ANOTHER CHANGE GROUP MID MORNING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........66 IN 1932
CEDAR RAPIDS...64 IN 1932
DUBUQUE........62 IN 1895
BURLINGTON.....69 IN 1932

RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 29...

MOLINE.........67 IN 1972
CEDAR RAPIDS...65 IN 1972
DUBUQUE........60 IN 2000
BURLINGTON.....72 IN 1972

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-WARREN.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...GIBBS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1251 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES THIS MORNING. LOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
GRIDS TO MAKE SURE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED AND
BLENDED WELL INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO RE-ISSUE THE SPS TO INCLUDE LOW
HUMIDITIES AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SOME DISCUSSION WITH THE FOREST SERVICE AND A COUPLE OF THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS MORNING...IT WAS DECIDED THAT WHILE
WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AND RH SHOULD BE LOW...OVERALL WE SHOULD
FALL SOMEWHAT SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. FOREST SERVICE ALSO
CONCLUDED THAT FUEL MOISTURES WERE STILL FAIRLY WET ACROSS THE
REGION...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DECISION FROM UPGRADING TO A RED
FLAG. INSTEAD...WILL RUN THE SPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANY POTENTIAL WIND/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IF WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BEYOND THE FORECAST...AND/OR IF RH LEVELS FALL BELOW THE
FORECAST...WILL RE-COORDINATE AND RE-EVALUATE.

ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD. NO FORECAST
PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS. TO THE NORTHWEST A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SPRAWLING HIGH COVERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AN INVERSION
IS KEEPING THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AT THE SFC. THIS HAS SET UP A
RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BUT IN THE MID 40S ON MANY OF THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE WEST. SOME VALLEYS IN
THE WEST...LIKE MONTICELLO...DECOUPLED EARLY...SET THEIR LOWS
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM POTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH FROM EACH OF THE MODELS. A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PASSES...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND A BIT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL
BLEND...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR
WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT...SUNNY...BREEZY...
AND WARM LATE FEBRUARY DAY. WINDS MAY PUSH 30 TO 35 MPH IN GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. FOR THIS...AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED AS RH
WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO CONSULT WITH THE FOREST
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING ABOUT THE FUEL MOISTURES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY WITH AN EYE TOWARD A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN PASSING
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY...ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE
MORNING...RETURNING SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON GOING AND SOME CAA EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID RANGE OF
CHANCE...FOR THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS.  OPTED TO GO MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.  CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. 00Z
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.  A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SWATH
OF RAIN AS IT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY. FORCING IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL.  SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DISCOUNTING THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...IT DOES
APPEAR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION LAGS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. DOESN`T
MEAN WE COULDN`T SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS.
WINTER PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLDER
NIGHT SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE
20S.  ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE STORM TRACK
AND STRENGTH...LEADING UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.  OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
DRY OUT AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. LOOK FOR A CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY
PRE-DAWN MONDAY. KEPT VCSH WORDING SINCE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND EXACT TIMING/IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD EVEN AFTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 KTS AT ABOUT 2K OFF THE GROUND FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EVENING...SO KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 343 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH SFC LO PRES OVER NRN
LK MI MOVING E ALONG STALLED FNT THAT PASSED THRU THE AREA LAST NGT.
AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX OVER SE CANADA HAS OVERCOME SOME VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z GRB RAOB TO BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ON THE
SE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...THE SHARP UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DYNAMICS AND UNDER COLDER CLD TOPS SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY HAS
BROUGH A CHANGE TO MAINLY SN. THERE IS AN AREA OF MDT SN OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER H7-75 FGEN. THE PCPN
OVER THE WRN CWA IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE SHARPER FORCING AND
COLDER CLD TOPS ARE SHIFTING TO THE E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLDS. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS
DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA.

AS THE SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/ FGEN EXIT TO THE E
AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE
STEADY SN TO DIMINISH. THE LAST OF THE SET OF CURRENT ADVYS ARE SET
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...AND THIS TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. A TRAILING SFC HI
PRES RDG NOW MOVING INTO MN IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS THE CWA TNGT.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RDG
AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
EXPECTED W WINDS. BUT ANY CLRG WL BE BRIEF AS THE DISTURBANCE NOW
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO
BY 12Z MON. SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/ DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO THE WRN LKS IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MSTR
INFLOW WL BE QUITE LIMITED...THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC ARRIVING WITH THE SFC TROF TOWARD 12Z JUSTIFY
SOME LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATE TNGT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ON MON MRNG AS THE TROF PASSES QUICKLY.
THERE WL BE A QUICK BURST OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LK SUP AS THE TROF PASSES...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IF HEAVIER STRIPE
OF SNOW DEVELOPS AS WRF-ARW/NMM AND NAM SUGGEST.

WINDS AND BLSN/DRSN WILL BE BIGGER ISSUE ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING TO 996-997MB OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TIGHTENS PRESSURE
GRADIENT UP TO 18MB BY 15Z ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR EVIDENCED BY -30C H85 TEMP AT CHURCHHILL
MANITOBA THIS MORNING IS DRAWN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR LEADING TO
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE. NNW-NW WINDS WITHIN MIXED LAYER ARE
UP TO 45-50 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH 40-45 KTS OVER
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC WINDS FM NAM/GEM-
REGIONAL/LOCAL WRF ARE 40 KTS OVER MOST OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
CONTINUED TREND FM MID SHIFT TO RAMP UP WINDS IN THE MORNING AND
SHOW RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY
ADVISORIES UP INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR ZONES...WILL
ISSUE AN SPS. AS EVEN WITH SUB ADVY SNOWFALL...THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS/BLSN WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW/WIND
AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE...LIKELY WILL NEED AN SHORT DURATION
ADVISORY. WINDS MAY ALSO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG LK SUPERIOR AFFECTING COPPER HARBOR AND AREAS
FROM BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT...INCLUDING MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

DESPITE H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -20C...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND MONDAY MORNING SYSTEM SHOULD PUT SIGNIFICANT CRIMP ON LES
CHANCES LATER MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. KEPT SCT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NW WIND AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH OF EASTERN
LK SUPERIOR INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH ALL
LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN DGZ...SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
WINDS WILL RAMP DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY MON EVENING SO ANY BLSN
ISSUES SHOULD WANE BY THAT TIME. TEMPS INLAND OVER WEST AND CENTRAL
MON NIGHT MAY TRY TO DIP BLO ZERO...ESPECIALLY FOR WHERE WINDS TRY
TO DECOUPLE. STILL APPEARS SYSTEM FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT REMAINS WELL TO
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/IL/LOWER MICHIGAN.
LIGHT LES WILL CONTINUE OFF LK SUPERIOR IN NW-N WIND AREAS TO EAST
OF MARQUETTE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMS AS INVERSIONS
STAY BLO 5KFT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE MEAN
TROUGHING. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK AS TIGHT AS IT DID YDY
BUT A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR BY WED NIGHT.
EXPECT THE LES TO INCREASE FOR A TIME WED INTO WED NIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. MODELS DIFFER ON WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE COLD WITH GFS PUSHING SUB -20C H85 TEMPS OVER ALL OF
UPR MICHIGAN WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE GLANCING BLOW OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND FAR EASTERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THU SO KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH LES DIMINISHING. ANOTHER SUB
ZERO NIGHT COULD OCCUR THU NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MAY BE SOME LGT SNOW AT TIMES DUE TO SHORTWAVES
WORKING THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES TO IMPROVE W-E DURING THIS AFTN
AS AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTS TO THE E AND ONGOING
SN DIMINISHES. BY ABOUT 00Z...LINGERING LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE THE
RULE. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG QUICKLY ACRS UPR MI THIS EVNG...
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST BRIEFLY. MORE -SN WL DVLP
OVER THE W LATE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP LO PRES TROF...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE -SN AND IFR VSBYS. STRONG NW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
THAT WL ARPCH 40 KT AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION...BEHIND THIS
TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF BLSN/LOWER VSBYS AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. CMX SHOULD SEE MORE BLSN/LIFR VSBYS. SINCE THE STRONG
WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THIS AFTN...WINDS OVER LK SUPERIOR WILL
COME DOWN BLO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
WITH A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO GALES TO 35 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND TO
45 KTS ON MON MORNING...STRONGEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. STORM FORCE GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION...BUT WILL STICK
WITH GALE WARNING ATTM. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE MON
AFTN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OVER QUEBEC AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. WINDS SHOULD STAY BLO 25 KTS MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT
BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH
BLO 20 KTS THU INTO FRI AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
REGION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001>003-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ004>007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ265.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     LSZ263-264.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC/JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 320 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

...SN WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY...
...MORE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR MON MORNING...

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...WITH SFC LO PRES OVER NRN
LK MI MOVING E ALONG STALLED FNT THAT PASSED THRU THE AREA LAST NGT.
AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX OVER SE CANADA HAS OVERCOME SOME VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z GRB RAOB TO BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SCENTRAL. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ON THE
SE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...THE SHARP UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DYNAMICS AND UNDER COLDER CLD TOPS SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY HAS
BROUGH A CHANGE TO MAINLY SN. THERE IS AN AREA OF MDT SN OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF THE CWA UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER H7-75 FGEN. THE PCPN
OVER THE WRN CWA IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE SHARPER FORCING AND
COLDER CLD TOPS ARE SHIFTING TO THE E. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SFC HI
PRES RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLDS. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV IS
DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA.

AS THE SHRTWV/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/ FGEN EXIT TO THE E
AND GIVE WAY TO LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT THE
STEADY SN TO DIMINISH. THE LAST OF THE SET OF CURRENT ADVYS ARE SET
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...AND THIS TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. A TRAILING SFC HI
PRES RDG NOW MOVING INTO MN IS FCST TO TRACK ACRS THE CWA TNGT.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RDG
AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
EXPECTED W WINDS. BUT ANY CLRG WL BE BRIEF AS THE DISTURBANCE NOW
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO
BY 12Z MON. SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/ DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO THE WRN LKS IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MSTR
INFLOW WL BE QUITE LIMITED...THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC ARRIVING WITH THE SFC TROF TOWARD 12Z JUSTIFY
SOME LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATE TNGT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ON MON MRNG AS THE TROF PASSES QUICKLY.
THERE WL BE A QUICK BURST OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LK SUP AS THE TROF PASSES...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IF HEAVIER STRIPE
OF SNOW DEVELOPS AS WRF-ARW/NMM AND NAM SUGGEST.

WINDS AND BLSN/DRSN WILL BE BIGGER ISSUE ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING TO 996-997MB OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TIGHTENS PRESSURE
GRADIENT UP TO 18MB BY 15Z ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN UPR
MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR EVIDENCED BY -30C H85 TEMP AT CHURCHHILL
MANITOBA THIS MORNING IS DRAWN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR LEADING TO
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE. NNW-NW WINDS WITHIN MIXED LAYER ARE
UP TO 45-50 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH 40-45 KTS OVER
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC WINDS FM NAM/GEM-
REGIONAL/LOCAL WRF ARE 40 KTS OVER MOST OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
CONTINUED TREND FM MID SHIFT TO RAMP UP WINDS IN THE MORNING AND
SHOW RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY
ADVISORIES UP INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR ZONES...WILL
ISSUE AN SPS. AS EVEN WITH SUB ADVY SNOWFALL...THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS/BLSN WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW/WIND
AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE...LIKELY WILL NEED AN SHORT DURATION
ADVISORY. WINDS MAY ALSO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG LK SUPERIOR AFFECTING COPPER HARBOR AND AREAS
FROM BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT...INCLUDING MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS ON THE LONG
TERM...WHICH BEGINS 12Z MON.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW OF THE CWA WITH A ROUGHLY 997MB
SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO THE SW OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MON. THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY QUICK HITTING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
CLEARING THE ERN CWA BY 18Z MON. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO
QUICK DUMP OF SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS MON
MORNING. HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 2-3 INCHES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES (POSSIBLY UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE KEWEENAW) WITH A TRANCE
TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE...BUT MOST OF THAT FALLS IN 3 HOURS AND DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. WITH HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES OUT AND WITH A SFC
HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W...SHOULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45KTS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES (STRONGEST KEWEENAW AND E) FOR 3-4
HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE LOW/COLD FRONT...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25-30KTS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS OVER
THE NW SHOULD FALL FROM AROUND 20F AT 12Z TO THE MID TEENS BY
15Z...THEN GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. OVER THE SE...THE TEMPS START AT 25-30F AND TAKES LONGER TO
FALL...BUT DOES FALL INTO THE TEENS BY THE EVENING. CONCERN IS THAT
PAVEMENT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE GIVEN THE QUICK
SNOWFALL...WINDS BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE ROAD (AND REDUCING
VIS)...AND TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING FROM RELATIVELY WARM TO WHERE SALT
IS NOT AN EFFECTIVE ROAD TREATMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
QUICKLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. WOULD ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
GIVEN THAT AN ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL PUNT THAT TO THE
NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -15C TO -20C MON EVENING...WILL SEE LES LINGER
IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH WED. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LESSER
AND GREATER LES DURING THAT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES S OF THE
AREA AND RIDING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT TIMES...STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WORTH HEADLINES AFTER MON. WED NIGHT AND THU MAY
SEE MORE NLY WINDS...WHICH WILL FAVOR MUCH OF NORTHERN UPPER MI FOR
LIGHT LES. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARMER AIRMASS AND SW FLOW LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SYSTEM OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO BE REAL SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES TO IMPROVE W-E DURING THIS AFTN
AS AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTS TO THE E AND ONGOING
SN DIMINISHES. BY ABOUT 00Z...LINGERING LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL BE THE
RULE. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG QUICKLY ACRS UPR MI THIS EVNG...
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST BRIEFLY. MORE -SN WL DVLP
OVER THE W LATE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP LO PRES TROF...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE -SN AND IFR VSBYS. STRONG NW WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS
THAT WL ARPCH 40 KT AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION...BEHIND THIS
TROF PASSAGE WL CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF BLSN/LOWER VSBYS AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. CMX SHOULD SEE MORE BLSN/LIFR VSBYS. SINCE THE STRONG
WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

A SFC LOW CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING NE GALES
TO 35 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND KEPT THE GALE
WARNING UP THROUGH THIS MORNING. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BELOW 25 KTS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN A PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST GALES UP TO 40 KTS FOR
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A QUICK
INCREASE IN WINDS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE ARE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE WINDS THEN STAYING
MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER MOST OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001>003-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ004>007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ265.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     LSZ263-264.

  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1150 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

Main concerns are with wind and elevated fire weather danger today.
Will be issuing a wind advisory for north of I-70 for today. See the
fire weather section below for the fire weather concerns.

A shortwave trough currently seen on water vapor extending from the
Upper Midwest into the central High Plains will deepen and move
across the region by late this afternoon.  Its attendant cold front
will move across the area this afternoon.  A tight pressure gradient
will set up ahead of it today which will set up very windy
conditions over the area.  KLSX VAD winds at 0930Z are showing 55kts
at 2000ft AGL that will begin to mix down this morning.

In addition, both the latest runs of the HRRR and NSSL WRF are
showing that there will be isolated light showers developing early
to mid afternoon over the southeast half of the CWA ahead of the
cold front.  This will be in response to strong low level moisture
convergence ahead of the front this afternoon.  Have added a slight
chance of showers to accommodate these showers.

Temperatures today will still get well above normal even with clouds
moving into the area because of the warm start and forecast
soundings showing mixing up to 800mb.  Have gone with highs above
the warmest MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

GFS and ECMWF are still showing continuity problems with the storm
that will move across the area on Tuesday.  Will stay a constant
course and keep with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
on Monday night.  Have now just kept that chance of thunderstorms to
the the southeast half of the CWA on Tuesday morning now as both the
GFS and the ECMWF shows the low pressure system racing eastward
early in the day.  Any chance of rain or snow over the area looks
like it will just be on Tuesday evening over the eastern half of the
area.

Wednesday still looks dry before the ECMWF and GFS brings a clipper
across the area on Thursday.  Will continue to carry a chance of
rain or snow with it Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal Wednesday through
Friday before climbing back above normal in time for the weekend.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

Primary concern is wind this afternoon and evening. Southwest wind
between 20-30kts with gusts of 35-45kts will prevail this
afternoon. This will cause serious crosswind issues on any
northwest/southeast oriented runways. Wind will shift to the
northwest behind a cold front beginning around 21-22Z in central
and northeast Missouri...around 00Z along the Missouri
I-44/Illinois I-55 corridor...and by 03Z into extreme southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. A VFR ceiling around 5000 FT is
expected to develop over the next hour or two ahead of the front and
there may be some widely scattered showers with this
ceiling...primarily east of the Mississippi, but precipitation is
not expected to be heavy enough to affect terminal operations.
Northwest flow will gradually diminish late this evening as high
pressure builds south of the area.

Specifics for KSTL:

Primary concern is wind this afternoon and evening. Southwest wind
between 20-25kts with gusts perhaps in excess of 35kts will
prevail this afternoon. This will be nearly a direct crosswnid on
the main runways. Wind will shift to the northwest around 00Z as a
cold front moves through the region. VFR ceiling around 5000 ft is
expected to develop west of the terminal over the next couple of
hours, and move overhead...perhaps with an isolated shower or two.
Rain is expected to be very light if it occurs so I don`t expect
any impact to terminal operations. Gusty northwest flow should
diminish by late evening with VFR flight condtiions prevailing.

Carney

&&

.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2016

There will be a small area of elevated fire danger over central
Missouri this afternoon. Above normal temperatures and low
dewpoints will help drive minimum relative humidities down into
the 25 to 30 percent range. In addition...southwest winds in the
15 to 20 mph range with higher gusts will shift to the west behind
of cold front in the afternoon. 10 hour dry fuels fell as low as 5
percent at Ashland in Boone County on Saturday afternoon.

Britt


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
     Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1252 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID-DAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WHILE RAIN SHOULD PREDOMINATE, FREEZING RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY CAUSING POTENTIAL
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1251 PM EST SUNDAY...COMPLEX TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, OWING ITSELF TO WHAT IS NOW A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ADDISON COUNTY. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TRAILS ALL THE WAY BACK WESTWARD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR WI/MI. SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS
BOUNDARY NOW ARE BEING REINFORCED BOTH BY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DRAINING SHALLOW COLDER AIR INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND A RELATIVE
MIN IN DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO THE BLANKET OF THICK OVERCAST. TO
THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50, SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS POINT AND 925 TO 850 MB TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING (AROUND +5C PER 12Z BUF RAOB). PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
LARGELY CONFINED TO QUEBEC, AND SO I`VE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW ENTERS INTO ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. I STILL THINK
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS WARRANTED AS MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT RETURNS NORTH, ALONG WITH A
RAPID INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL TEMPS OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD 2-M
TEMPS. THERE MAY BE A FEW OTHER LOCALES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
FRANKLIN CO VT AND NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY NY WHO MAY SEE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT, BUT I`M NOT FULLY CONVINCED IT WILL
MEASURE THERE.

IN TERMS OF THE GRIDS, I`VE OPTED TO ADJUST TEMPS AND WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS USING A BLEND OF THE 16Z HRRR AND THE LOCALLY-
RUN 12Z WRF MODELS, WHICH SHOWS TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY IN
THE COLDER AIR, WHILE RISING A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE MILDER AIR TO
THE SOUTH. A STRONGLY NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH TODAY`S LOWS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT
3-5 HOURS AND THEN TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HRS UNDER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION, CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING/BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EST SUNDAY...CLIPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE MARITIMES DURING
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAILING IN
TANDEM BY MONDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PROCESS TWO COLD FRONTS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA, THE SECOND BEING DRIER WITH LESS PCPN, BUT
SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN TERMS OF COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. THE HIGHEST
PCPN THREAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS DEEPER
SYSTEM`S FRONT AND MOISTURE PULL EAST. GENERALLY A MIX OF
RAIN/NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, TRENDING TO ALL
FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THOUGH WITH LESS
COVERAGE AS SECOND FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT THERE ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
EVIDENCE OF PBL INSTABILITY TO 150 J/KG RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SO WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH WHETHER A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/BRIEF SQUALLS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS
MENTIONED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE TRICKY, AT LEAST ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD READINGS FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S) AND COOLER VALUES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (30S) AS FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS
DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO. THEN PREDICTABILITY
FACTOR INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD LOWS
(10 TO 20 NORTH, 20 TO 25 SOUTH) FOLLOWED BY 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
HIGHS BEHIND THE SECOND BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EST SUNDAY...WELL, IN TERMS OF OUR MORE ROBUST MID-
WEEK SYSTEM UNFORTUNATELY THE JURY REMAINS OUT ON IT`S EVOLUTION
AND EVENTUAL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD OUR REGION. THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT FROM THIS
MORNING`S GEFS/EPS DATA REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF GUIDANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE THE
EURO/UKMET/NAM/GEM AND ENSEMBLE GEPS SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. NOW THAT`S ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND YOU CAN CREATE IN THIS FIELD. AS A SIDE
NOTE WPC PREFERS THE FORMER, RATHER THAN THE LATTER SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT. REGARDLESS ON THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME, PRIMARY PCPN SLUG
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS TREND SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH
MEAN HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE WEEK. USING A GENERAL BLEND OF GFS/EURO
REGARDING PBL THERMAL STRUCTURE, I`LL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PRIOR FORECAST AND WPC. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
MAINLY SNOW EVENT FOR OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A SNOW TO
MIX SOUTH. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, I`M NOT
EXPECTING REALLY HEFTY SNOW TOTALS. HOWEVER, EARLY INDICATIONS
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 4-6 INCHES CENTRAL/NORTH, SOMEWHAT LESS SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH COULD BE ONE OF OUR LARGER SNOWFALLS OF THE
SEASON IF THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS TRUE TO COURSE. OF COURSE THE
FINER-SCALE DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS AND
THINGS CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ALL-IN-ALL, A PRETTY COMPLEX/CHANGEABLE
AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD. FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHAT SIDE OF A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT THE
TAF IS LOCATED. SOUTH OF THE FRONT (RUT/MPV) EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6-10 KTS. ALONG/NORTH OF IT, EXPECT
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
10-12 KTS. FRONT THEN PUSHES BACK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING, SPARKING
IN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES NORTH. MIX OF VFR FOR
MOST TAF SITES TO MVFR/IFR IN -FZRA AT MSS. INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS (10 TO 15 KTS) AND/OR POCKETS OF LLWS ALSO
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF AIRSPACE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS LARGELY FROM LOW CEILINGS WITH LIGHT RAIN. A WIND SHIFT
TO WEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING,
BUT CONDITIONS THEN TREND VFR WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...BRIEF VFR TRANSITION TO MVFR/LOCAL IFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS. POSSIBLE SHORT-DURATION LIFR VISIBILITY AND GUSTY
WEST WIND IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH BEST CHANCE AT MSS, SLK AND PBG.

12Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 12Z-18Z WED, BECOMING GUSTY
NORTHWEST 00Z-06Z THU.

06Z THU ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LOCONTO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 543 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH ITS TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...TO ONE INCH. A RETURN TO COLDER...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD AND KIPT HAVE BEEN SURPASSED OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND ANOTHER DEG F OR SO SHOULD BE TACKED ON TO THESE
PRIOR TO 21Z.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE: KBFD - 53F IN 1983...KAOO - 63F
SET IN 1955....63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954...AND KMDT - 68F IN 1976.
WE`VE ALREADY ECLIPSED TWO OF THEM...KAOO MAY BE TIED BASED ON THE
18Z HRRR. HOWEVER...KMDT SEEMS SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF
REACH WITH A FCST HIGH THERE OF JUST 61-62F.

SUB 995 MB SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE OR
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT AND FAST MOVING NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A DWINDLING RIBBON OF 0.75 PWATS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND UP TO ONE OR
TWO TENTHS OF RAINFL ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LESS QPF HEADING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
AND SUSQ REGION.

A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE. MINS EARLY MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE L30S NW...TO THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LLVL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH A
VERY LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE OF JUST 2 KFT AGL AT KBFD.

850 MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO -3 OR -4C BEHIND THIS /INITIAL/
CFRONT...AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON....TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL VARY FROM THE U30S NEAR KBFD...TO THE MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS REGION...AND L-M 50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

WESTERLY WINDS COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 20S MONDAY...WHILE WILL
ADD A LITTLE CHILL TO THE OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER FRONT...
LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30 POP.

THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.

FOR NOW...LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR TUE MORNING.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPS ABOVE 32 ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THIS BASED ON WWD GRAPHICS NOT HAVING ANY ZR OR SNOW IN
FCST...ALONG WITH FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THAT 12Z MODELS
HAVE LOW TRACKING WEST OF OUR AREA. THUS HAVE JUST RAIN SHOWERS
IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER 12Z WED. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. 558 THICKNESS FCST TO STAY SE OF
OUR AREA. IF THE 558 THICKNESS WAS TO GET THIS FAR NORTH...THEN
ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.

QPF NOT FCST TO BE THAT HIGH...THUS NOT EXPECTING FLOODING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A
LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE IS MUCH
STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME GEFS
MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG RANGE...UNLESS
THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH A PAIR/TRIPLET
OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL. DID ADD IN SOME SMALL CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE LAST SECOND HERE. ENJOY THE
MILD EVENING TONIGHT. WE GET AN EXTRA DAY IN FEB THIS YR.
THIS LOOKING TO BE A MILD DAY TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE WIND-RELATED. RELATIVELY
DEEP BLYR MIXING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN 20-25KT SFC GUSTS FROM
210-240 DEGREES AS OF 22Z.

A CORE OF VERY STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE GRT
LKS TONIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO LLWS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD FAVOR MORE
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 10Z-15Z...ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF SHOWER IN MOST LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY ALSO ACCOMPANIED
BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WHERE PLUME OF
MOISTURE ALONG FRONT ASCENDS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE MTNS THRU ARND MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE SHOULD BRING BREAKING CLOUDS
AND A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS DURING MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY

MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR AND DECREASING WINDS. BRIEF MVFR IN
-SHSN POSSIBLE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NW MTNS WITH A
SECONDARY CFRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE NGT...RAIN/SNOW/ICE MIX PSBL NW AIRSPACE. RAIN CENTRAL-EAST.
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

WED...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS PSBL WESTERN 1/3 AIRSPACE.

THU...PM SNOW/SUB-VFR PSBL ESP SOUTHERN 1/2 AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 331 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH ITS TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...TO ONE INCH. A RETURN TO COLDER...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD AND KIPT HAVE BEEN SURPASSED OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND ANOTHER DEG F OR SO SHOULD BE TACKED ON TO THESE
PRIOR TO 21Z.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE: KBFD - 53F IN 1983...KAOO - 63F
SET IN 1955....63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954...AND KMDT - 68F IN 1976.
WE`VE ALREADY ECLIPSED TWO OF THEM...KAOO MAY BE TIED BASED ON THE
18Z HRRR. HOWEVER...KMDT SEEMS SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF
REACH WITH A FCST HIGH THERE OF JUST 61-62F.

SUB 995 MB SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE OR
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT AND FAST MOVING NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A DWINDLING RIBBON OF 0.75 PWATS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND UP TO ONE OR
TWO TENTHS OF RAINFL ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LESS QPF HEADING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
AND SUSQ REGION.

A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE. MINS EARLY MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE L30S NW...TO THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LLVL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH A
VERY LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE OF JUST 2 KFT AGL AT KBFD.

850 MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO -3 OR -4C BEHIND THIS /INITIAL/
CFRONT...AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON....TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL VARY FROM THE U30S NEAR KBFD...TO THE MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS REGION...AND L-M 50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

WESTERLY WINDS COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 20S MONDAY...WHILE WILL
ADD A LITTLE CHILL TO THE OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER FRONT...
LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30 POP.

THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.

FOR NOW...LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR TUE MORNING.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UP TEMPS ABOVE 32 ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THIS BASED ON WWD GRAPHICS NOT HAVING ANY ZR OR SNOW IN
FCST...ALONG WITH FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THAT 12Z MODELS
HAVE LOW TRACKING WEST OF OUR AREA. THUS HAVE JUST RAIN SHOWERS
IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER 12Z WED. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. 558 THICKNESS FCST TO STAY SE OF
OUR AREA. IF THE 558 THICKNESS WAS TO GET THIS FAR NORTH...THEN
ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.

QPF NOT FCST TO BE THAT HIGH...THUS NOT EXPECTING FLOODING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A
LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE IS MUCH
STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME GEFS
MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN MAINLY
IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG RANGE...UNLESS
THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH A PAIR/TRIPLET
OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL. DID ADD IN SOME SMALL CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE LAST SECOND HERE. ENJOY THE
MILD EVENING TONIGHT. WE GET AN EXTRA DAY IN FEB THIS YR.
THIS LOOKING TO BE A MILD DAY TOO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL WIND-RELATED. RELATIVELY DEEP
BLYR MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LED TO 20-25KT SFC GUSTS FROM
210-240 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM 230-240 DEGREES INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS
WITHIN A FEW KFT AGL LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAST- MOVG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...THEN HEADS DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

MAINTAINED LLWS AFTER 00Z MON. HOWEVER...LACK OF DECOUPLING MAY
FAVOR MORE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS. GUSTS WITH
COLD FROPA COULD REACH 30KT...AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS
BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL
ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE BTWN 06-12Z MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BFD/JST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THEN...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY

MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR AND DECREASING WINDS. BRIEF MVFR IN
-SHSN POSSIBLE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NW MTNS WITH A
SECONDARY CFRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE NGT...RAIN/SNOW/ICE MIX PSBL NW AIRSPACE. RAIN CENTRAL-EAST.
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

WED...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS PSBL WESTERN 1/3 AIRSPACE.

THU...PM SNOW/SUB-VFR PSBL ESP SOUTHERN 1/2 AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 302 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH ITS TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING. A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...TO ONE INCH. A RETURN TO COLDER...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
13Z HRRR SFC AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A RIBBON OF DISTINCT ADIABATIC
WARMING/DESCENT VIA THE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 220
CORRIDOR FROM KUNV...TO MARYLAND BORDER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KBFD AND KIPT HAVE BEEN SURPASSED OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND ANOTHER DEG F OR SO SHOULD BE TACKED ON TO THESE
PRIOR TO 21Z.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE: KBFD - 53F IN 1983...KAOO - 63F
SET IN 1955....63 AT KIPT SET IN 1954...AND KMDT - 68F IN 1976.
WE`VE ALREADY ECLIPSED TWO OF THEM...KAOO MAY BE TIED BASED ON THE
18Z HRRR. HOWEVER...KMDT SEEMS SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE OUT OF
REACH WITH A FCST HIGH THERE OF JUST 61-62F.

SUB 995 MB SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF OUR CWA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE OR
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT AND FAST MOVING NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A DWINDLING RIBBON OF 0.75 PWATS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND UP TO ONE OR
TWO TENTHS OF RAINFL ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LESS QPF HEADING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
AND SUSQ REGION.

A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE FAR NW ZONES...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE. MINS EARLY MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE L30S NW...TO THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
--SHSNRA OVER THE LAURELS AND --RA IN THE LOWER SUSQ WILL DRY UP
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LLVL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH A
VERY LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE OF JUST 2 KFT AGL AT KBFD.

850 MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO -3 OR -4C BEHIND THIS /INITIAL/
CFRONT...AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON....TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
WILL VARY FROM THE U30S NEAR KBFD...TO THE MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS REGION...AND L-M 50S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

WESTERLY WINDS COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 20S MONDAY...WHILE WILL
ADD A LITTLE CHILL TO THE OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS ANOTHER FRONT...
LAGGING BEHIND BY JUST 24 HRS. THIS FRONT ALSO SLIDES THRU MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT FROM THE N TO THE S. IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
OVER THE N/C MTNS MON NIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 30 POP.

THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG RANGE.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WHICH SLID DOWN MON NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. THIS IS MORE
CERTAIN SINCE SUNSHINE COMES BACK OUT AS THE WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEREFORE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ONLY SOME
VERY LIGHT WAA PRECIP IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR N/NW. IF IT FALLS IN THE EARLY MORNING...IT COULD BE SOME
--SN...BUT TEMPS GET MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTN.

THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE TO OUR WEST AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE THROUGH. AS THE TROUGH
DIPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IT DEVELOPS A STORM OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY ON TUES. BY THE TIME APPRECIABLE PRECIP GETS TO NWRN
PA...NIGHT WILL HAVE FALLEN. COUPLE THAT WITH THE MORE-CERTAIN
TRACK OF THE LOW /WHICH LOOKS TO PASS OVER NWRN OR CENTRAL PA/ AND
YOU GET THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SOME SNOW TO STICK OVER THE NW.
MOST PLACES IN CENTRAL PA WILL ONLY SEE RAIN AS THE STORM MOVES
THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WED AM. BUT ACCUMS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT/S PACKAGE...WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF ZR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW CHC OF IT
OCCURRING IN THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE M30S OR MILDER
TUES NIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS MORE CERTAIN ON
TIMING AS MOST GUID HAS IT COMING THRU WED AM. HOWEVER...THE GFS
IS PUMPING OUT PRECIP IN THE COLD AIR ON WED OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS THERE...BUT THE EC WHIPS THE FRONT ON
THRU AND DOES NOT DEVELOP THE WAVE TO OUR S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT BUT THE FAST FLOW GIVES
NO REST TO THE WEARY FORECASTER. NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR ENTIRELY SNOW...AS TEMPS WILL BE ALMOST 10F
BELOW NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. A FAST-MOVING WAVE ZIPS PAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME LATE THURS TO EARLY FRIDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY SRN PA. THIS FEATURE
IS MUCH STRONGER/WELL-DEVELOPED IN THE EC THAN THE GFS AND SOME
GEFS MEMBERS. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW....AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE S. COLD AND DRY SHOULD ROUND OUT THE LONG
RANGE...UNLESS THE GFS AND THE FEW ENS MEMBERS ARE ON TARGET WITH
A PAIR/TRIPLET OF VERY MINOR WAVES ZIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL WIND-RELATED. RELATIVELY DEEP
BLYR MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS LED TO 20-25KT SFC GUSTS FROM
210-240 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM 230-240 DEGREES INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS
WITHIN A FEW KFT AGL LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAST- MOVG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...THEN HEADS DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

MAINTAINED LLWS AFTER 00Z MON. HOWEVER...LACK OF DECOUPLING MAY
FAVOR MORE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AS OPPOSED TO LLWS. GUSTS WITH
COLD FROPA COULD REACH 30KT...AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS
BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL
ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE BTWN 06-12Z MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BFD/JST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THEN...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY

MON NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY VFR AND DECREASING WINDS. BRIEF MVFR IN
-SHSN POSSIBLE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NW MTNS WITH A
SECONDARY CFRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE NGT...RAIN/SNOW/ICE MIX PSBL NW AIRSPACE. RAIN CENTRAL-EAST.
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

WED...SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS PSBL WESTERN 1/3 AIRSPACE.

THU...PM SNOW/SUB-VFR PSBL ESP SOUTHERN 1/2 AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 241 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S WITH THE SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD
WITH A LATEST POSITION THROUGH ABILENE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WITH THIS FRONT IS ALREADY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG PRODUCTION
OVERNIGHT AND WILL FORECAST PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG OUT FOR NOW
AND LATER SHIFTS CAN INTRODUCE IT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE.

ANY POTENTIAL FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS WILL MIX-OUT BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
80S WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS WILL
BE HIGHER TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB AND THE NAM/ECMWF IS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE TO NO QPF WITH THE FROPA. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER CAP AND
THEREFORE IS PROGGING SOME QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20/30
POPS MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN AREAS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 35 KNOTS. THESE VALUES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE WITH POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE
EASTERN AREAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE TEMPERATURES AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE A DRY FROPA. MODELS
THEN SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT-FLOW BY SUNDAY
WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW ON DAY 7 AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS UPPER PATTERN IS
LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  78  62  76  46 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  78  61  77  44 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  79  61  78  46 /   0   0  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  76  60  73  43 /   0   0  10  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  82  59  82  49 /   0   0   0  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  77  61  73  43 /   0   0  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             56  79  60  79  44 /   0   0  10  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  78  61  78  45 /   0  -   10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  79  62  77  46 /  -   10  -   30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  79  62  77  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  81  62  79  48 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33