Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/27/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1259 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN...THE RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FOR TONIGHT.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TOMORROW INTO
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EST...STEADY RAINFALL HAS RETURNED TO THE
REGION...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THERE ARE EVEN SOME BURSTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...AND A
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
REISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
3KM HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THERE SHOULD
START TO BE A DRYING TREND TOWARDS THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT...THE PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE JUST A COATING...AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING... TEMPS WILL BE EITHER STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 40S /30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH...IT
LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS ELEVATIONS OVER 2500 FEET). SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS MIGHT EVEN RECEIVE A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT THAT
WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION NOT THE NORM.
IT TURNS QUITE A BIT COLDER VIA A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...TEENS ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COLDER.
FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MORE DRYING
ALOFT AND THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYLONIC SHOULD LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY
AND COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
30-35 IN THE VALLEYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A GRADUAL REDUCING IN THE
BREEZE. LOWS DOWN TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...TEENS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...THE FLOW WILL
TURN FROM NW TO SW. IT REMAINS DRY WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES...BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THAT
WILL TRANSLATED TO 35-40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS
WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
BE DRIVEN BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER MILD OVER
MOST OF OUR AREAS...50-55 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.
IT WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW AGAIN MAINLY TO NORTHERN
AREAS.
BY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUED IN MAINLY NORTHERN
AREAS. IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S SOUTH...30S NORTH.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SLIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL TURN RATHER MILD...50-55 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
AGAIN MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS.
BY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUED IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS.
IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
SOUTH...30S NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
MOIST AIR AND INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY THAT MIGHT BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF
RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF RAIN IN THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. THE WIND HAS SHIFTED TO WEST TO NORTHWEST BUT UPPER
ENERGY IS SUPPORTING THE AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR TO
BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS OCCUR IN AND NEAR THE AREAS OF
RAIN...WHILE OUTSIDE OF THE STEADIER RAIN...JUST INTO THE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET. SO...INDICATING
INTERVALS OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z WHEN THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
AREA BETWEEN 22Z-02Z...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. BEYOND 02Z-05Z...CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE STEADY AROUND 10 KT...BUT SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS AFTN...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL BASIN AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW POINT LOCATIONS MAY LOCALLY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
MOST RIVERS/STREAMS ARE CRESTING OR WILL BE CRESTING THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH TODAY/S RAINFALL AND SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLOW RECEDING OF WATER LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW RIVER POINTS CONTINUE TO BE AT/NEAR FLOOD
STAGE...ESP OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND SEE OUR RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON THESE.
WITH MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TONIGHT...THESE RIVER POINTS
SHOULD BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
ALLOW RIVERS/STREAMS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE EVEN FURTHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL FEATURE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
CANADA...WITH ONE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES THIS MORNING. WINDS ALSO SHIFTING TO
SW. KBOX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWING 45 KT WINDS AT 3 KFT. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING...STILL WOULD
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS THE CONTINUING
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO MATCH UP WELL WITH
OBSERVED RADAR DATA. USED IT TO TWEAK POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CT AND MA.
NEAR RECORD WARMTH...
INCREDIBLE WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN TEMPS 58-62 AT 5 AM! SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND MORNING OCCLUDED
FRONT. HOWEVER BLYR DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO
ABOUT H85 WITH TEMPS AROUND +1C AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER. THUS
TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD IN THE U50S TO L60S WITH A FEW M60S
POSSIBLE. PROBABLY FALLING SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS BUT CLOSE...SO
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
BOS 65/1930
PVD 69/1976
BDL 70/1976
ORH 64/1976
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
TRAVERSES NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. CAA RESULTS IN ENTIRE COLUMN TO COOL WHICH WILL SUPPORT
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY MINOR ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF WESTERN CT/MA. CAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* HIT OR MISS SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PRECIP POTENTIAL
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
POSITIVE PNA HAS KEPT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN AN ELONGATED TROUGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUT STILL DIFFER IN
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN AS
EVIDENCED BY SEPARATED ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CLUSTERING. FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT WAVE PASSING THROUGH
SUN-MON WILL BRING SNOW TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW THEN PROGRESSES
INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE AS MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND CONSEQUENTLY TOO WARM FOR
A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SNOW. HOWEVER CONTINUE TO WATCH A POTENTIAL
SYSTEM MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS...COULD SEE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY OVERNIGHT
AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO -13C. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF PVD/BOS. BECAUSE OF
THE COOLER START TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. HOWEVER WITH
LESS WIND AND CLEARING SKIES IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...APPEARS THAT WE WILL WARM SECTOR ONCE AGAIN AS 850 MB
TEMPS WARM TO 6C. SURFACE TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO 50F ON
SUNDAY...AND MID 50S BY MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60S ON MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT CANT RULE IT OUT THANKS TO WESTERLY WIND.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT POINTING TO A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO TRENDED TOWARDS A CHC OF
SHOWERS...MORE OF THE HIT OF MISS VARIETY. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
SO THE TREND CAN CHANGE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. EC AND EC
ENSEMBLES SHOW A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. DEPENDING ON
WHAT SIDE OF THE LOW WE ARE ON WE COULD SEE WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
CMC/GFS SHOW ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER BY THURSDAY WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE WHICH IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE POSITIVE PNA AN
A TRENDING NEGATIVE NAO.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
TODAY...
IFR/MVFR WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. SSE
WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 45 KT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
TONIGHT...
MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WEST LATE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KBOS TERMINAL...DRYING TREND ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO
MVFR-VFR. SSE WINDS SHIFT TO SW...NOT QUITE AS GUSTY WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 35 KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...IMPROVING AND DRYING TRENDS THIS MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SLACKEN A BIT.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR
20-30 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE SW ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
TODAY...
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE OUTERMOST COASTAL WATERS EAST OF CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET THIS MORNING. WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM SSE TO
SW WITH SPEEDS LOWERING A BIT...BUT STILL IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE
OF 25 TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE BUT VSBY IMPROVES.
TONIGHT...
SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT EARLY SHIFTS TO WEST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
END SMALL CRAFT ADV LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS WIND GUSTS NEAR
30- 34 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX. SCA MAY
BE DROPPED DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING CLOSE TO
25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE SEAS
AND SWELL INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STILL A LOW RISK FOR A FEW AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HOWEVER
THINK THE THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AS CORE OF
STRONG WINDS MOVING OFFSHORE A BIT FASTER. HIGH TIDE NOT UNTIL 9
AM/10 AM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. CURRENT OBSERVED SURGE
VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT. GIVEN WINDS SLACKEN TOWARD
HIGH TIDE ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES SURGE VALUES SHOULD DECREASE
TO ABOUT 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. THIS WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BUT LARGE SEAS OF 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE MAY RESULT IN SOME
SPLASH OVER IN SPOTS. MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS MAY BE IN THE
BUZZARDS BAY COMMUNITIES AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN SSW THIS MORNING
PRECLUDING WATER LEVEL FROM DRAINING SEAWARD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
GREATEST SURGE/WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE
THINKING MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
NEVERTHELESS CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE WITH
HIGHEST RISK AREAS IN AND ALONG BUZZARDS BAY.
AS FOR PAWCATUCK RIVER IN WESTERLY...GIVEN HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED
AND CURRENT GAGE READING SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND ALONG WITH HIGH
TIDE STILL 5 HRS AWAY...THINKING THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS FAIRLY
LOW.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
147 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH
BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM FOR
EASTERN LI AND SRN CONNECTICUT EAST OF BRIDGEPORT. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
LINE OF STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CT
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LI...IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET WITH 925 MB WINDS OF 70 TO 80 KT. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS LI AND CT EAST OF BRIDGEPORT. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY...MAINLY
ACROSS LI AND COASTAL CT.
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING EAST OF LONG
ISLAND/CONNECTICUT BY 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS/IFR/LLWS EAST OF CITY TERMINALS EXIT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR OTHERWISE INTO THE MORNING PUSH...THEN VFR BY
LATE MORNING. WINDS BCMG SW WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. CHC -SHRA IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH OVER KSWF TO INCLUDE IN
TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.
SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.
THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ070>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
115 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...NRN NJ...AND NYC. THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
LINE OF STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CT
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LI...IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET WITH 925 MB WINDS OF 70 TO 80 KT. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS LI AND CT EAST OF BRIDGEPORT. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY...MAINLY
ACROSS LI AND COASTAL CT.
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING EAST OF LONG
ISLAND/CONNECTICUT BY 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS/IFR/LLWS EAST OF CITY TERMINALS EXIT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR OTHERWISE INTO THE MORNING PUSH...THEN VFR BY
LATE MORNING. WINDS BCMG SW WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. CHC -SHRA IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH OVER KSWF TO INCLUDE IN
TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.
SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.
THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ070>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
106 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING VERY MILD
LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1159 PM EST...ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS A LINE OF STORMS HAVE
DEMONSTRATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO TAP INTO
A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE OFFICE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.
NO REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE YET...BUT THIS IS ONGOING.
WE CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GREENS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WIND GUSTS AT
BENNINGTON HAD REACHED NEARLY 60 MPH AS THEY WERE FIRMLY IN THE WARM
AIR SECTOR. MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS WERE IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR...OR
WILL BE VERY SOON. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 AM. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD SHOULD HAVE MOVED ENTIRELY OUT
OF OUR REGION.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WORKING INTO THE REGION...INCLUDING SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE. A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA.
UPDATE ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THE FAST ON GOING HOUR CHANGES.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO WORK NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND GUST
UP TO 35-40 MPH...PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
SW NEW YORK STATE...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM PASSING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850
HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4
STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NOW
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE
THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP
PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN
PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP
TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S...50S...AND LOWER 60S WHICH
WOULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL AHEAD OF THE STORM/S COLD FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 400 AM
WHICH DIRECTLY IMPACTS KPSF. A LINE OF STORMS WAS WORKING
NEAR THAT TAF. ALSO...WE ISSUED A SYNOPTIC HIGH WIND WARNING
WHICH IMPACTS THAT TAF SITE AS WELL.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE OTHER TAFS
(KALB/KPOU/KGF). HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN PA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NY STATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS LINE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWERS.
THERE WILL OCCASIONALLY BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF
WHERE GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50KTS FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40KTS FROM THE SOUTH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) UNTIL LATER OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR VARIABLE CONDITIONS...MAINLY FROM IFR TO MVFR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...DUE TO VARYING
CIGS AND REDUCTION IN SHOWERS.
THE WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MORNING PEAK.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE TO OUR EAST...BUT INSTABILITY
POP UP LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (VCSH) THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
LINGERING MVFR AT KPSF UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON DUE TO UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
IT LOOKS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE WINDY BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STORM AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED FLOOD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AS CONVECTIVE TORRENTIAL RAIN...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...
HAS LEAD TO MINOR TO EVEN MODERATE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.
THESE PROBLEMS INCLUDED BASEMENT FLOODING AND SOME ROAD WASHOUTS.
SEE OUR LSR REPORTS FOR ALL THE LATEST DETAILS.
RAINFALL HAS AVERAGE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES HAVE APPROACHED A HALF INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOODING WAS
BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OUR REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT...COULD REACH OUR AREA
AFTER 200 AM...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ALSO HAVE ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME RIVER
POINTS...MOSTLY MINOR FLOOD STAGES. PLEASE REFER TO OUR FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR ALL THE LATEST ON THESE.
THE STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO CANADA BY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK BACK IN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL TO MOVE
THROUGH...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND SHOULD NOT
REALLY ADD TO HYDRO PROBLEMS.
IT WILL TURN COLDER TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
RUNOFF TO SLOW DOWN QUITE A BIT.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ043-
054-061-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1159 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING VERY MILD
LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1159 PM EST...ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS A LINE OF STORMS HAVE
DEMONSTRATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO TAP INTO
A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE OFFICE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.
NO REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE YET...BUT THIS IS ONGOING.
WE CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GREENS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WIND GUSTS AT
BENNINGTON HAD REACHED NEARLY 60 MPH AS THEY WERE FIRMLY IN THE WARM
AIR SECTOR. MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS WERE IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR...OR
WILL BE VERY SOON. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 AM. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD SHOULD HAVE MOVED ENTIRELY OUT
OF OUR REGION.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WORKING INTO THE REGION...INCLUDING SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE. A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA.
UPDATE ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THE FAST ON GOING HOUR CHANGES.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO WORK NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND GUST
UP TO 35-40 MPH...PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
SW NEW YORK STATE...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM PASSING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850
HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4
STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NOW
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE
THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP
PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN
PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP
TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S...50S...AND LOWER 60S WHICH
WOULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL AHEAD OF THE STORM/S COLD FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z-06Z/THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS PASSES THROUGH.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/LIFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...THEN MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBYS...WITH
VFR TO MVFR CIGS...ESP AT KPSF.
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. THEN...AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT 8-12 KT...THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...SINCE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N/NE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ043-054-061-
084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1120 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING VERY MILD
LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1120 AM EST...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE GREENS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TACONICS. WIND GUSTS AT BENNINGTON HAD REACHED NEARLY 60 MPH AS THEY
WERE FIRMLY IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR. MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS WERE
IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR...OR WILL BE VERY SOON. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 600 AM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD SHOULD HAVE MOVED
ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR REGION.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WORKING INTO THE REGION...INCLUDING SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR AREA.
UPDATE ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THE FAST ON GOING HOUR CHANGES.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO WORK NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND GUST
UP TO 35-40 MPH...PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
SW NEW YORK STATE...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM PASSING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850
HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4
STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NOW
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE
THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP
PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN
PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP
TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S...50S...AND LOWER 60S WHICH
WOULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL AHEAD OF THE STORM/S COLD FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z-06Z/THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS PASSES THROUGH.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/LIFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...THEN MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBYS...WITH
VFR TO MVFR CIGS...ESP AT KPSF.
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. THEN...AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT 8-12 KT...THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...SINCE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N/NE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ043-054-061-
084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1118 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH S-SE WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 35 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. ALSO EXPECT SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE
HEAVY RAINFALL.
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING EAST OF NYC BY
06Z...AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND/CONNECTICUT BY 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY IFR WITH RAIN. LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CITY
TERMINALS 04-05Z. CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT MAKE IT TO KBDR AND KISP.
GUSTS IN TSTMS COULD BE OVER 55KT. GUSTS AHEAD OF THE TSTM LINE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 40-45KT. LLWS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH
WINDS 60-70KT AT 1500FT. IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY... VFR WITH SW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.
SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.
THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ070>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
846 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Northwest flow aloft continues over central IL as a large scale
low pressure trough dominates the eastern U.S. and a high pressure
ridge dominates the west. At the surface, high pressure has
slipped east of the area which is causing winds to shift to
southwesterly. Skies have cleared across the area except for near
the IN state line, and nothing more than a period of thin high
clouds expected overnight. Temperatures already down to the upper
20s and low 30s this evening, but these will struggle to fall much
more as low level warm advection initiates and a light southerly
wind continues. Expect lows mainly mid to upper 20s overnight.
Have updated for slightly cooler lows tonight, otherwise forecasts
in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Earlier clearing over the southeast half of the CWA has filled in
since late morning. However, back edge of the low cloud shield has
moved into west central Illinois this afternoon. Latest RAP guidance
suggests most of this should be out of the CWA by mid evening, with
a period of clear skies. However, an area of cirrus will move
through after midnight, associated with the upper wave currently
seen on water vapor imagery from the west tip of Lake Superior into
western Kansas. This will result in partly cloudy conditions as the
wave zips through overnight. Will need to watch for some fog
potential over east central Illinois, as there were 1-3 inches of
snow on the ground there this morning and some melting has taken
place. However, winds will be picking up after midnight, which may
help mitigate the threat. Currently, only the SREF is indicating any
visibility restrictions overnight. Will leave out mention for now
and continue to monitor.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Any patchy early morning fog in east-central Illinois early
Saturday morning should quickly dissipate as southwest winds crank
up into the 15 to 25 mph range. The gusty winds and ample sunshine
will go a long way toward melting any remaining snow pack in our
counties as well, with high temps expected to reach in the 50s
across the board.
The upper level ridge responsible for the warming trend will begin
to shift east of Illinois on Sunday, as the next in a series of low
pressure systems approaches the Great Lakes region. Despite
increasing afternoon clouds and slight chances of rain north of
Springfield to Mattoon on Sunday, strong south to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will provide our warmest day of the next week. Highs
will climb into the low to mid 60s. Thunder potential appears to
have lowered with the latest model suite, so no mention of thunder
was included ahead of the cold front later Sunday afternoon. Slight
chances of rain will linger into Sunday evening east of I-57, with
dry conditions after midnight when the cold front departs well to
the east.
A brief push of cooler air will arrive for Monday, but plenty of
sunshine will help high temps recover into the 50s, which are still
well above normal.
The extended models once again have come in with widely varying
solutions. The ECMWF is the only model to develop a deep 990mb low
passing across Illinois roughly along I-72 on Tuesday. It indicates
enough cold air N-NW of the low for several inches of snow W of I-55
Tue afternoon, with rain changing to snow east of I-55 into the
evening. A few thunderstorms would even be possible south of I-72 on
Tuesday. The GFS has a weak and more elongated surface low develop
and pass by to the south of Illinois on Tuesday, with precip mainly
south of I-72, and mainly rain until colder air arrives Tuesday
evening and changes rain to snow as precip ends. The Canadian GEM
has more of an open wave and surface trough pass across Illinois on
Tuesday, with precip starting briefly as rain early Tuesday then
changing to snow, with light accums possible. With such large swings
in each models solutions from cycle to cycle, along with differences
between the models, only minor changes were made to the forecast
from late Monday night through Tues night. The blended
initialization shifted the Likely PoPs on Tuesday to areas southeast
of Decatur, with high chance PoPs elsewhere in central Illinois.
The actual PoP numbers were relatively close to the previous
forecast in general. Precip type scenarios were tied to a warm surge
on Tuesday, then rain changing to snow from W to E Tues night, as
colder air arrives behind the low/surface trough. Changes to this
scenario are likely over the next couple of days before models start
to converge on a solution.
A break in the precip chances is expected for Wednesday as weak high
pressure passes across IL. However, another upper level shortwave
and surface trough are projected to pass over Illinois on Thursday.
There will be higher chances of rain or snow southeast of the
Illinois river, closer to the track of the upper vort max and jet
dynamics.
High temps will dip back below normal from Wednesday to Friday as
the waves bring brief shots of cooler air to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Areas of MVFR ceilings late this afternoon will head eastward over
the next few hours...resulting in VFR conditions across all
central IL terminals by 03Z. Some visibility reductions due to fog
are possible early in the morning...otherwise VFR conditions will
continue through the remainder of the TAF forecast period. Winds
W-SW up to 10 kts until Saturday morning...increasing to SW 12-14
kts with gusts to around 20 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
547 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Earlier clearing over the southeast half of the CWA has filled in
since late morning. However, back edge of the low cloud shield has
moved into west central Illinois this afternoon. Latest RAP guidance
suggests most of this should be out of the CWA by mid evening, with
a period of clear skies. However, an area of cirrus will move
through after midnight, associated with the upper wave currently
seen on water vapor imagery from the west tip of Lake Superior into
western Kansas. This will result in partly cloudy conditions as the
wave zips through overnight. Will need to watch for some fog
potential over east central Illinois, as there were 1-3 inches of
snow on the ground there this morning and some melting has taken
place. However, winds will be picking up after midnight, which may
help mitigate the threat. Currently, only the SREF is indicating any
visibility restrictions overnight. Will leave out mention for now
and continue to monitor.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Any patchy early morning fog in east-central Illinois early
Saturday morning should quickly dissipate as southwest winds crank
up into the 15 to 25 mph range. The gusty winds and ample sunshine
will go a long way toward melting any remaining snow pack in our
counties as well, with high temps expected to reach in the 50s
across the board.
The upper level ridge responsible for the warming trend will begin
to shift east of Illinois on Sunday, as the next in a series of low
pressure systems approaches the Great Lakes region. Despite
increasing afternoon clouds and slight chances of rain north of
Springfield to Mattoon on Sunday, strong south to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will provide our warmest day of the next week. Highs
will climb into the low to mid 60s. Thunder potential appears to
have lowered with the latest model suite, so no mention of thunder
was included ahead of the cold front later Sunday afternoon. Slight
chances of rain will linger into Sunday evening east of I-57, with
dry conditions after midnight when the cold front departs well to
the east.
A brief push of cooler air will arrive for Monday, but plenty of
sunshine will help high temps recover into the 50s, which are still
well above normal.
The extended models once again have come in with widely varying
solutions. The ECMWF is the only model to develop a deep 990mb low
passing across Illinois roughly along I-72 on Tuesday. It indicates
enough cold air N-NW of the low for several inches of snow W of I-55
Tue afternoon, with rain changing to snow east of I-55 into the
evening. A few thunderstorms would even be possible south of I-72 on
Tuesday. The GFS has a weak and more elongated surface low develop
and pass by to the south of Illinois on Tuesday, with precip mainly
south of I-72, and mainly rain until colder air arrives Tuesday
evening and changes rain to snow as precip ends. The Canadian GEM
has more of an open wave and surface trough pass across Illinois on
Tuesday, with precip starting briefly as rain early Tuesday then
changing to snow, with light accums possible. With such large swings
in each models solutions from cycle to cycle, along with differences
between the models, only minor changes were made to the forecast
from late Monday night through Tues night. The blended
initialization shifted the Likely PoPs on Tuesday to areas southeast
of Decatur, with high chance PoPs elsewhere in central Illinois.
The actual PoP numbers were relatively close to the previous
forecast in general. Precip type scenarios were tied to a warm surge
on Tuesday, then rain changing to snow from W to E Tues night, as
colder air arrives behind the low/surface trough. Changes to this
scenario are likely over the next couple of days before models start
to converge on a solution.
A break in the precip chances is expected for Wednesday as weak high
pressure passes across IL. However, another upper level shortwave
and surface trough are projected to pass over Illinois on Thursday.
There will be higher chances of rain or snow southeast of the
Illinois river, closer to the track of the upper vort max and jet
dynamics.
High temps will dip back below normal from Wednesday to Friday as
the waves bring brief shots of cooler air to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Areas of MVFR ceilings late this afternoon will head eastward over
the next few hours...resulting in VFR conditions across all
central IL terminals by 03Z. Some visibility reductions due to fog
are possible early in the morning...otherwise VFR conditions will
continue through the remainder of the TAF forecast period. Winds
W-SW up to 10 kts until Saturday morning...increasing to SW 12-14
kts with gusts to around 20 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1118 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Upper trough affiliated with yesterday`s storm system was
dropping southward through central Illinois this morning, and had
produced some light snow with it. Bloomington airport recently
dropped down to a mile in light snow, but the snow band will be
shifting south soon. Have updated the forecast to add a mention of
flurries over most areas southeast of the Illinois River through
midday as the trough shifts southward.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing some thinning of the
clouds to our north, more of a mid/high cloud deck vs the
widespread stratocumulus along and south of the trough. RAP model
humidity plots suggest the lower stuff could start filling in
again, and there is indeed more coming down from central Wisconsin
and southern Minnesota. While there may be some filtered sunshine
at times, net effect will be mostly cloudy skies persisting much
of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Storm system that brought the strong winds, rain and/or snow to much
of central and southeast Illinois is quickly pulling away from the
area. The center of the surface low is expected to lift northeast
from the eastern Great Lakes this morning to the tip of Maine by
this evening. A trof rotating around the back side of the departing
system will help keep wrap around clouds across the area today, and
a few light snow showers or flurries are possible near the Indiana
border. Little or no additional snow accumulation is expected. It
will still be breezy today, with winds gusting over 20 mph at times,
but nowhere near as windy as yesterday. Temperatures should top out
from 35 to 40 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Strong 986 mb low pressure over eastern Lake Ontario, will lift
ne into the Saint Lawrence Seaway this evening, while 1031 mb high
pressure over the northern high plains settles SSE across the
central and southern plains. Approaching high pressure ridge will
weaken brisk nw winds today to between 5 and 10 mph during overnight.
This should also decrease the low clouds from the SW during
tonight as skies become partly cloudy. Cooler lows tonight in the
low to mid 20s which is pretty close to normals for late February.
High pressure ridges into IL Friday morning and then shifts SE of
IL across the Ohio river valley by sunset Friday, while starting a
WSW flow around 10 mph. But an upper level trof diving SE across
the Midwest and into IL by sunset Friday will increase clouds
again and keep seasonably cool highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s, with coolest readings over eastern IL. This should pass
through IL dry with very limited moisture and then clouds to
decrease from nw to SE Friday night as upper trof shifts SE
across the Ohio river valley. Lows Friday night of 25-30F.
Milder temperatures in store this weekend with upper level flow
becoming more zonal allowing Pacific air into IL. Increasing SW
winds to 10-15 mph Saturday and 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph on
Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 50s Sat and 59-65F on Sunday. A fair
amount of sunshine still expected Saturday as upper level ridges
shifts east toward IL and still under influence of surface high
pressure in the southeast states. 00Z models have trended further
north with a fairly strong surface low pressure tracking eastward
out of northern plains across southern/central parts of WI and lower
MI on Sunday. With further north track, central IL appears drier
and milder on Sunday with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy
toward Sunday afternoon. A cold front passes southeast across
central IL Sunday evening and brings a chance of light rain
showers, but better chances of rain and heavier qpf is well ne of
central IL closer to low pressure system in the Great Lakes.
Dry conditions return later Sunday night and Monday with Pacific
high pressure moving into the mid MS river valley. A bit cooler
highs of 50-55F on Monday. Still dry Monday night over the area.
Then a stronger southern stream storm system digs into north Texas
by sunset Tue and ejects ne into the Ohio river valley Wed or Wed
night depending on model. Have good chance of rain Tue/Wed with
northern areas possibly seeing a chance of light snow too late Tue
night and Wed morning and over most of central IL Wed night. Highs
Tue range from upper 40s/lower 50s north to upper 50s southeast IL.
Cooler highs Wed range from around 40F north to lower 50s south of I-
70. Highs by next Thu cool into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Ceilings have largely lifted into the low VFR range or will be
doing so through midday. Some thinning of the clouds is possible
this afternoon with ceilings potentially scattering out at times,
but clouds expected to thicken up again early this evening and
lower back into the 3000-3500 foot range. Some more substantial
scattering out of the clouds is on tap after midnight in most of
central Illinois, but the ceilings may linger until closer to
sunrise across east central parts of the state.
The gusty northwest winds will continue for a couple more hours,
before settling down as an upper trough pushes south of central
Illinois.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
957 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Upper trough affiliated with yesterday`s storm system was
dropping southward through central Illinois this morning, and had
produced some light snow with it. Bloomington airport recently
dropped down to a mile in light snow, but the snow band will be
shifting south soon. Have updated the forecast to add a mention of
flurries over most areas southeast of the Illinois River through
midday as the trough shifts southward.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing some thinning of the
clouds to our north, more of a mid/high cloud deck vs the
widespread stratocumulus along and south of the trough. RAP model
humidity plots suggest the lower stuff could start filling in
again, and there is indeed more coming down from central Wisconsin
and southern Minnesota. While there may be some filtered sunshine
at times, net effect will be mostly cloudy skies persisting much
of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Storm system that brought the strong winds, rain and/or snow to much
of central and southeast Illinois is quickly pulling away from the
area. The center of the surface low is expected to lift northeast
from the eastern Great Lakes this morning to the tip of Maine by
this evening. A trof rotating around the back side of the departing
system will help keep wrap around clouds across the area today, and
a few light snow showers or flurries are possible near the Indiana
border. Little or no additional snow accumulation is expected. It
will still be breezy today, with winds gusting over 20 mph at times,
but nowhere near as windy as yesterday. Temperatures should top out
from 35 to 40 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Strong 986 mb low pressure over eastern Lake Ontario, will lift
ne into the Saint Lawrence Seaway this evening, while 1031 mb high
pressure over the northern high plains settles SSE across the
central and southern plains. Approaching high pressure ridge will
weaken brisk nw winds today to between 5 and 10 mph during overnight.
This should also decrease the low clouds from the SW during
tonight as skies become partly cloudy. Cooler lows tonight in the
low to mid 20s which is pretty close to normals for late February.
High pressure ridges into IL Friday morning and then shifts SE of
IL across the Ohio river valley by sunset Friday, while starting a
WSW flow around 10 mph. But an upper level trof diving SE across
the Midwest and into IL by sunset Friday will increase clouds
again and keep seasonably cool highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s, with coolest readings over eastern IL. This should pass
through IL dry with very limited moisture and then clouds to
decrease from nw to SE Friday night as upper trof shifts SE
across the Ohio river valley. Lows Friday night of 25-30F.
Milder temperatures in store this weekend with upper level flow
becoming more zonal allowing Pacific air into IL. Increasing SW
winds to 10-15 mph Saturday and 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph on
Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 50s Sat and 59-65F on Sunday. A fair
amount of sunshine still expected Saturday as upper level ridges
shifts east toward IL and still under influence of surface high
pressure in the southeast states. 00Z models have trended further
north with a fairly strong surface low pressure tracking eastward
out of northern plains across southern/central parts of WI and lower
MI on Sunday. With further north track, central IL appears drier
and milder on Sunday with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy
toward Sunday afternoon. A cold front passes southeast across
central IL Sunday evening and brings a chance of light rain
showers, but better chances of rain and heavier qpf is well ne of
central IL closer to low pressure system in the Great Lakes.
Dry conditions return later Sunday night and Monday with Pacific
high pressure moving into the mid MS river valley. A bit cooler
highs of 50-55F on Monday. Still dry Monday night over the area.
Then a stronger southern stream storm system digs into north Texas
by sunset Tue and ejects ne into the Ohio river valley Wed or Wed
night depending on model. Have good chance of rain Tue/Wed with
northern areas possibly seeing a chance of light snow too late Tue
night and Wed morning and over most of central IL Wed night. Highs
Tue range from upper 40s/lower 50s north to upper 50s southeast IL.
Cooler highs Wed range from around 40F north to lower 50s south of I-
70. Highs by next Thu cool into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Northwest winds will gust near 20 kts today on the back side of
yesterday`s storm system. The gusts will fall off tonight, with
winds remaining out of the northwest.
Widespread low CIGs will prevail through the 12Z TAF valid time
across the central Illinois terminals. These CIGs should
initially be low end VFR...but will likely fall to MVFR by late
afternoon or tonight in the wake of a trof of low pressure. A few
flurries or light snow showers are possible today near KCMI,
which is closest to the departing storm system, but these should
have little impact on CIGs or VSBYs.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER. A NICE WARM
UP IS EXPECTED BUT THE RECENT SNOWPACK WILL TEMPER THE WARMTH INTIALLY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN THE NORTH.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKEND
IS FOR HIGHS INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND 50S FOR SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
A MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM AS SYNOPTIC SNOW COMES TO AN END AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING SOUTH AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DONE BEFORE
00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWING LAKE EFFECT BANDS SETTING UP AROUND 00Z
BUT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING.
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BRING A
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LAKE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY RISE TO
AROUND 5-6KFT FOR JUST A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 4KFT REST OF NIGHT. TRAJECTORIES AND DGZ FAVORABLE
BUT INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED WITH DELTA T/S 13-14C. HRRR AND RUC13
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT ALL DAY SHOWING LIGHT BANDS DEVELOPING
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF. GIVEN RADAR SIGNALS ALREADY HAVE SIDED
TOWARD THE HIRES GUIDANCE. ARW-WRF HAS DONE WELL THIS SEASON WITH
LES BANDS AND BLENDED IT WITH LATEST RUC FOR FORECAST. BANDS SHOWN
BY MOST MODELS TO PENETRATE RATHER FAR INLAND AND DOWN TO CENTRAL IN
AND INTO OHIO WITH HELP FROM SHORT WAVE. THEREFORE CARRIED LOW POPS
ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN BORDER. STILL THINK ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH
OR LESS GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS BUT ISOLATED 2 POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTH IF A STRONGER BAND DEVELOPS IN BRIEF BUT PRIME WINDOW.
OTHERWISE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE IN SHORT TERM. POSSIBILITY OF
NORTHEAST BEING CLEAR AFTER SHORT WAVE WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5
KNOTS OR SO LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK. CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD OR
BELOW LOWER END OF MOS. ALSO KEPT HIGHS IN LOWER END FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
WARM UP WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INITIALLY
INFLUENCED BY RIPENING AND SLOWLY MELTING SNOWPACK. AM HESITANT TO
INCREASE TEMPS TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY WHERE 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
CURRENTLY RESIDES AND AT LEAST 2 THAW/FREEZE CYCLES TO OCCUR BEFORE
WE STAY ABOVE FREEZING STARTING SATURDAY. HAVE ALLOWED HIGHS TO
REACH AT LEAST 40 ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMEST READINGS IN FAR
SOUTH. WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO PULL UP AT LEAST SOME GULF
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF DEEPER MSTR WILL
PHASES IN TIME WITH THE SYSTEM TO WARRANT EXPANDED LIKELY OR EVEN
CAT POPS SO HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY UNTOUCHED. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPE...ALL LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE SEEN INTO SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
INFLUENCE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT AS MAIN FOCUS YET
ANOTHER WAVE IN A VERY ACTIVE FLOW ENTERS THE NW STATES AND THEN
BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS VARY ON HANDLING WITH ECMWF
BRINGING A OPEN BUT EVENTUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVING THROUGH
VS GFS CUTTING OFF A DEEP UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS MI. LOTS OF
SPECULATION WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS ON THE AREA...BUT GIVEN NOTED
DIFFERENCES...PERIOD OF INTEREST PAST DAY 5 AND CRITICAL THERMAL
PROFILES/SFC LOW TRACK ALL IN QUESTIONS...HAVE TO CONSIDER JUST ABOUT
ANY FORM OF PRECIP AND WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THIS JUNCTURE FROM
FROZEN/FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE NOT
LIKELY TO INCREASE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF INTEREST
BECOMES SAMPLED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
REMNANTS OF WINTER STORM PULL AWAY. SNOW HAS ALREADY ENDED AT KSBN
AND WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2 AT KFWA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL HOLD UNTIL EVENING WITH DROP OFF TO AROUND OR LESS THAN
10 KNOTS ENDING ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
ONE CHANGE IN TAFS FOR KSBN WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY
THIS EVENING AS HI RES MODELS SHOWING ONE OR MORE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW BANDS POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE
REGION. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST OPTION TO
HANDLE BEING A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1235 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADS WILL
BE SNOW COVERED SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY MAKE TRAVEL
IMPOSSIBLE ON SOME ROADS. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WX HEADLINES PLANNED FOR THIS
EVENING. BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF OUR
CWA TIL 03Z WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND TRANSITION TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THAT TIME. HEAVIEST OF SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE
ENDED WITH GENERALLY JUST LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN THE LARGE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER OUR AREA AND UPSTREAM ATTM. HOWEVER WITH 3-7
INCHES ALREADY DOWN ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND NWLY GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP... HAZARDS
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING GOING. SERN CWA IN
HAS ALL TRANSITIONED TO SNOW NOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN TACT OVER THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DRY
SLOT DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STRONG ASCENT TODAY WHICH
QUICKLY COOLED THE COLUMN AND LED TO RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS CERTAINLY HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING EVENT TO WATCH UNFOLD. HIGH
DGZ...STRONG WINDS AND SATURATED COLUMN BELOW DGZ LED TO AN
INTERESTING PATTERN TODAY WITH PCPN TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS.
OBSERVATIONS AT KIWX SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN JUST A MATTER OF MINUTES. BANDS OF STRONGER
SNOW AND DEEPER LIFT PRODUCED LARGE SNOWFLAKES WHILE INTERMITTENT
PERIODS BETWEEN HEAVIER BANDS SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE DWINDLE TO VERY
FINE FLAKES AND EVEN SNOW PELLETS AND SLEET AT TIMES WITH SOME
MELTING AND REFREEZING. TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WARM LAYER CHANGED PCPN
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE DRY SLOT ENDED PCPN ENTIRELY. WHILE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AREA HAS SEEN THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY...REPORTS FROM KSBN
AND METRO AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES
REPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND
URBAN SETTING THERE MAY HAVE BEEN FASTER COMPACTION AND MELTING
PROCESSES WITH SNOW ON GROUND COMPARED TO MORE RURAL AREAS.
REST OF EVENING WILL SEE DRY SLOT FILL IN AS EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ROTATES NORTH. DEFORMATION ZONE TO EXPAND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY. COLDER AIR WILL EXPAND EAST
AND SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TYPE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING IN FAR EAST.
RUC AND HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TYPES TODAY AND USED THESE
ALONG WITH NAM12 BLENDED FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN POWT PROCESS
FOR FORECAST GRIDS. LIQUID SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW AS EXPECTED
WITH AROUND 10 TO 1 AVERAGE. SHOULD SEE THESE IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR AND DGZ LOWERING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING OFF THE LAKE INTO NW AND NC INDIANA WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW. OVERALL INHERITED ACCUMS LOOK GOOD WITH REPORTS
RECEIVED ALREADY...TOTAL ACCUMS AROUND A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE NW
INDIANA TO SW MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW COMES TO AN
END.
HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG WITH WINDS JUST BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA HAS
KEPT NW AREAS FROM SEEING TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WARRANT KEEPING THE BZW IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME STRONGER GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH GRADIENT AS
WELL. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS INTACT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY EAST
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EASTWARD AND
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING
MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND ALEUTIANS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
US. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF
ALEUTIAN LOW AND ENTERING WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
SUNDAY...BUT THEN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TRANSITION PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AS THIS FIRST
SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE
COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS INVERTED TROF EXTENDING UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. A FEW POCKETS
OF MODERATE SNOW WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KSBN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONGER DEFORMATION BAND ROTATES THROUGH WITH
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 15Z BUT LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS...POSSIBLY FUEL
ALTERNATE...WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD GIVEN CAA/CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ009-
018-025>027-032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003>008-012>017-020-022>024.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
317 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LITTLE OF CONCERN TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF CLOUDS. MID LEVEL VORT LOBE
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN THE MID MS VALLEY BUT ANY ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION IS ALREADY PAST IA. UPSTREAM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SHORT WAVE
IS PRODUCING A FAINT REFLECTION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND WHILE THE
FORCING WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE AS IT REACHES IA EARLY FRI MORNING
STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. LIKELY
JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE
STRATUS TRENDS WITH PATCHY HOLES PASSING BY THIS EVENING...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGESTING MORE GENERAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL RIDGE CROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STAYED A TOUCH
OVER MOS WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT FOR AWHILE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
FEW CONCERNS IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. HRRR AND OTHER
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH A PORTION
OF FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BREAK UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL MODERATE AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TRANSITIONS EAST INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE H850
TEMPERATURES RISING TO +11C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH MIXING AT LEAST
TAPPING INTO 8 TO 10C AIR BY LATE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH DURING THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARING THE I80 CORRIDOR...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
MILD START TO THE DAY WILL HELP HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35
TO 40 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DISPLACE THE SLIGHT COLD
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RENEWED WARM
UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...MODELS CONTINUE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. TODAYS CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE TRACK
MAY BE FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO MODEL RUNS...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ADVERSE WINTER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY AND
MODELS INHERENTLY STRUGGLE TO REACH A CORRECT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME
RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE MORE
NORTHWEST DRIFT IN THE MODELS THE PAST 12 HOURS THOUGH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A MORE WOUND UP STORM THAN
THE EURO AT THIS TIME DUE TO FASTER INGESTION OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR...IT ALSO HAS STRONGER WINDS AND MORE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AXIS/STRENGTH
/TRACK IS CURRENTLY ALSO POOR. THE GENERAL TREND FOR BOTH THE
GFS/EURO OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY. WILL MENTION IN UPDATED HWO THIS AFTERNOON
AND PASS ONTO SUCCEEDING SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS MAINLY PLUS
2KFT EXIST OVER IA AND UPSTREAM INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. MADE SOME
ATTEMPT TO TIME ONE OF THE BREAKS CURRENTLY OVER MN AT NRN SITES
/KMCW/KALO/ BUT OTHERWISE CARRIED PROLONGED PERIOD OF 2-3KFT CIGS
IN TAFS UNTIL CLEARING LIKELY OCCURS FRI MORNING. BREAKS COULD
OCCUR ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT THERE YET. MINOR
NW GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE SUBSIDING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1124 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Radar trends over the past several hours have been for a weakening
of the light to moderate snow shower activity. Latest water vapor
imagery and RAP analysis showing weak upper wave still upstream but
models are consistent with available moisture diminishing with time.
Will keep a mention of flurries into the early morning hours in the
far east but continued drying should bring this to an end by noon.
Mixing increasing into the midday should keep some lower cloud in
place and cold air advection from the overnight hours bringing
slightly cooler temps than Wednesday. Weak surface ridge passes
through tonight but winds picking up aloft again overnight and
some high cloud should keep fog in check.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge across the west coast
of the US will move east into the central Rockies. The longer wave
length upper level trough across the eastern US will begin to fill.
The central and southern plains will continue with northwest flow at
and mid and upper levels. Northwest winds at 850mb will become
westerly across eastern KS. This will result in WAA as 850mb
temperatures warm to 3 to 5 deg C. Deep mixing will allow High
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s. The surface winds will
only be 5 to 15 MPH from the southwest, thus I do not for see an
elevated fire danger.
Saturday, The upper level ridge across the west central US will
shift east across plains during the day. A lee surface trough will
deepen across the central and southern high plains which will cause
the low-level winds across central and eastern KS to increase
through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Southwest winds
will be 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH during the late morning
hours then back more to the south during the afternoon hours. WAA at
850mb will cause 850mb temperatures to increase to 11 to 14 DEG C
during the afternoon hours. The boundary layer should mix to at
least 850mb, which will allow high temperatures to reach the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the central plains Saturday night which will bring a weak
cold front southeast across the CWA. The low-levels look too dry for
any precipitation ahead of the H5 trough.
Despite low-level CAA and northwest surface winds, 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 4 to 8 DEC C range and
afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the mid to upper 60s.
An upper level trough will dig onshore across the Pacific northwest
and dig southeast into western CO and northeast AZ. A lee surface
trough will deepen across western KS and surface winds across the
CWA will become southerly. Highs on Monday may be a bit warmer than
the forecast, as the ECMWF shows better WAA at 850mb, my current
forecast have highs in the mid lower 60s but highs may reach a few
degrees warmer as long as we do not see high cloudiness spread
across the CWA.
Monday night through Wednesday,
Both the ECMWF and GFS model solutions are closer in the track of
the upper level trough digging southeast from western CO into the
Texas Panhandle then east across southern OK and north TX. The 00Z
GFS run is now more progressive than the ECMWF, moving the upper low
across southern OK into eastern AR by 12Z WED which would bring an
end to the precipitation Tuesday night. The ECMWF is more amplified
with the upper low and slowly shifts the upper low east across OK
into northeast AR by Wednesday evening.
Rain and potentially isolated evaluated thunderstorms will develop
Monday night as deeper moisture advects northward ahead of the
surface low over southwest KS. Temperatures will only drop into the
40s but will slowly rise through the night. Periods of rain will
continue through the day as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the CWA. Temperature aloft and at the surface may cool enough
for the rain to mix with snow across north central KS. Highs will
occur early in the day with temperatures steady to slowly falling
through the 40s into the upper 30s across the northern counties by
late afternoon.
Both models show a TROWAL region developing within the deformation
zone to the north and northwest of the upper low across central and
eastern KS Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF has colder
vertical temperature profiles which may cause the mixed rain and
snow to change over to snow across much of the CWA through the
night. The snow or rain snow mix will continue into Wednesday. It is
too early to say how much snow the CWA could potentially get but if
the ECMWF verifies, some areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
may receive several inches of heavy west snow. If the GFS were to
verify, then there would only be light accumulations. Temperatures
on Wednesday should warm into the lower to mid 40s, thus any snow
will change back to rain and melt through the day Wednesday.
Thursday, the upper low will push east across KY and TN and skies
should clear. There`s not much cold air behind the upper trough, so
temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 50s if there is no
significant snow cover across portions of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
For the 18z TAFs, borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings will likely persist
through the afternoon hours before gradually scattering out late
this afternoon into early this evening. Gusty northwest winds
will quickly diminish this evening and become light as they back
to the southwest overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
There continues to be a concern for red flag conditions Saturday
as models continue to show a warm and breezy day. At this point
min RH values are forecast to be between 20 and 30 percent as south
winds gust around 25 to 35 MPH through the afternoon. Therefore the
potential exist for a critical range land fire danger and the
possible issuance of a red flag warning Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
540 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Radar trends over the past several hours have been for a weakening
of the light to moderate snow shower activity. Latest water vapor
imagery and RAP analysis showing weak upper wave still upstream but
models are consistent with available moisture diminishing with time.
Will keep a mention of flurries into the early morning hours in the
far east but continued drying should bring this to an end by noon.
Mixing increasing into the midday should keep some lower cloud in
place and cold air advection from the overnight hours bringing
slightly cooler temps than Wednesday. Weak surface ridge passes
through tonight but winds picking up aloft again overnight and
some high cloud should keep fog in check.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge across the west coast
of the US will move east into the central Rockies. The longer wave
length upper level trough across the eastern US will begin to fill.
The central and southern plains will continue with northwest flow at
and mid and upper levels. Northwest winds at 850mb will become
westerly across eastern KS. This will result in WAA as 850mb
temperatures warm to 3 to 5 deg C. Deep mixing will allow High
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s. The surface winds will
only be 5 to 15 MPH from the southwest, thus I do not for see an
elevated fire danger.
Saturday, The upper level ridge across the west central US will
shift east across plains during the day. A lee surface trough will
deepen across the central and southern high plains which will cause
the low-level winds across central and eastern KS to increase
through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Southwest winds
will be 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH during the late morning
hours then back more to the south during the afternoon hours. WAA at
850mb will cause 850mb temperatures to increase to 11 to 14 DEG C
during the afternoon hours. The boundary layer should mix to at
least 850mb, which will allow high temperatures to reach the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the central plains Saturday night which will bring a weak
cold front southeast across the CWA. The low-levels look too dry for
any precipitation ahead of the H5 trough.
Despite low-level CAA and northwest surface winds, 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 4 to 8 DEC C range and
afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the mid to upper 60s.
An upper level trough will dig onshore across the Pacific northwest
and dig southeast into western CO and northeast AZ. A lee surface
trough will deepen across western KS and surface winds across the
CWA will become southerly. Highs on Monday may be a bit warmer than
the forecast, as the ECMWF shows better WAA at 850mb, my current
forecast have highs in the mid lower 60s but highs may reach a few
degrees warmer as long as we do not see high cloudiness spread
across the CWA.
Monday night through Wednesday,
Both the ECMWF and GFS model solutions are closer in the track of
the upper level trough digging southeast from western CO into the
Texas Panhandle then east across southern OK and north TX. The 00Z
GFS run is now more progressive than the ECMWF, moving the upper low
across southern OK into eastern AR by 12Z WED which would bring an
end to the precipitation Tuesday night. The ECMWF is more amplified
with the upper low and slowly shifts the upper low east across OK
into northeast AR by Wednesday evening.
Rain and potentially isolated evaluated thunderstorms will develop
Monday night as deeper moisture advects northward ahead of the
surface low over southwest KS. Temperatures will only drop into the
40s but will slowly rise through the night. Periods of rain will
continue through the day as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the CWA. Temperature aloft and at the surface may cool enough
for the rain to mix with snow across north central KS. Highs will
occur early in the day with temperatures steady to slowly falling
through the 40s into the upper 30s across the northern counties by
late afternoon.
Both models show a TROWAL region developing within the deformation
zone to the north and northwest of the upper low across central and
eastern KS Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF has colder
vertical temperature profiles which may cause the mixed rain and
snow to change over to snow across much of the CWA through the
night. The snow or rain snow mix will continue into Wednesday. It is
too early to say how much snow the CWA could potentially get but if
the ECMWF verifies, some areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
may receive several inches of heavy west snow. If the GFS were to
verify, then there would only be light accumulations. Temperatures
on Wednesday should warm into the lower to mid 40s, thus any snow
will change back to rain and melt through the day Wednesday.
Thursday, the upper low will push east across KY and TN and skies
should clear. There`s not much cold air behind the upper trough, so
temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 50s if there is no
significant snow cover across portions of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Low cloud heights and timing are the main challenges. Upstream
observations showing a wide variety of cloud, but TOP and FOE look
to be under a steady stream of MVFR stratus through the next few-
several hours. Increasing daytime mixing should still bring at
least scattered MVFR cloud to MHK and kept a BKN deck given
increasing trends to the NW. Shallow nature of moisture should
still bring VFR conditions by 19Z. There looks to be enough mixing
to keep visibilities VFR late in the forecast but this will need
to be watched.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
There continues to be a concern for red flag conditions Saturday
as models continue to show a warm and breezy day. At this point
min RH values are forecast to be between 20 and 30 percent as south
winds gust around 25 to 35 MPH through the afternoon. Therefore the
potential exist for a critical range land fire danger and the
possible issuance of a red flag warning Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
335 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Radar trends over the past several hours have been for a weakening
of the light to moderate snow shower activity. Latest water vapor
imagery and RAP analysis showing weak upper wave still upstream but
models are consistent with available moisture diminishing with time.
Will keep a mention of flurries into the early morning hours in the
far east but continued drying should bring this to an end by noon.
Mixing increasing into the midday should keep some lower cloud in
place and cold air advection from the overnight hours bringing
slightly cooler temps than Wednesday. Weak surface ridge passes
through tonight but winds picking up aloft again overnight and
some high cloud should keep fog in check.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge across the west coast
of the US will move east into the central Rockies. The longer wave
length upper level trough across the eastern US will begin to fill.
The central and southern plains will continue with northwest flow at
and mid and upper levels. Northwest winds at 850mb will become
westerly across eastern KS. This will result in WAA as 850mb
temperatures warm to 3 to 5 deg C. Deep mixing will allow High
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s. The surface winds will
only be 5 to 15 MPH from the southwest, thus I do not for see an
elevated fire danger.
Saturday, The upper level ridge across the west central US will
shift east across plains during the day. A lee surface trough will
deepen across the central and southern high plains which will cause
the low-level winds across central and eastern KS to increase
through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Southwest winds
will be 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH during the late morning
hours then back more to the south during the afternoon hours. WAA at
850mb will cause 850mb temperatures to increase to 11 to 14 DEG C
during the afternoon hours. The boundary layer should mix to at
least 850mb, which will allow high temperatures to reach the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the central plains Saturday night which will bring a weak
cold front southeast across the CWA. The low-levels look too dry for
any precipitation ahead of the H5 trough.
Despite low-level CAA and northwest surface winds, 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 4 to 8 DEC C range and
afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the mid to upper 60s.
An upper level trough will dig onshore across the Pacific northwest
and dig southeast into western CO and northeast AZ. A lee surface
trough will deepen across western KS and surface winds across the
CWA will become southerly. Highs on Monday may be a bit warmer than
the forecast, as the ECMWF shows better WAA at 850mb, my current
forecast have highs in the mid lower 60s but highs may reach a few
degrees warmer as long as we do not see high cloudiness spread
across the CWA.
Monday night through Wednesday,
Both the ECMWF and GFS model solutions are closer in the track of
the upper level trough digging southeast from western CO into the
Texas Panhandle then east across southern OK and north TX. The 00Z
GFS run is now more progressive than the ECMWF, moving the upper low
across southern OK into eastern AR by 12Z WED which would bring an
end to the precipitation Tuesday night. The ECMWF is more amplified
with the upper low and slowly shifts the upper low east across OK
into northeast AR by Wednesday evening.
Rain and potentially isolated evaluated thunderstorms will develop
Monday night as deeper moisture advects northward ahead of the
surface low over southwest KS. Temperatures will only drop into the
40s but will slowly rise through the night. Periods of rain will
continue through the day as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the CWA. Temperature aloft and at the surface may cool enough
for the rain to mix with snow across north central KS. Highs will
occur early in the day with temperatures steady to slowly falling
through the 40s into the upper 30s across the northern counties by
late afternoon.
Both models show a TROWAL region developing within the deformation
zone to the north and northwest of the upper low across central and
eastern KS Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF has colder
vertical temperature profiles which may cause the mixed rain and
snow to change over to snow across much of the CWA through the
night. The snow or rain snow mix will continue into Wednesday. It is
too early to say how much snow the CWA could potentially get but if
the ECMWF verifies, some areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
may receive several inches of heavy west snow. If the GFS were to
verify, then there would only be light accumulations. Temperatures
on Wednesday should warm into the lower to mid 40s, thus any snow
will change back to rain and melt through the day Wednesday.
Thursday, the upper low will push east across KY and TN and skies
should clear. There`s not much cold air behind the upper trough, so
temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 50s if there is no
significant snow cover across portions of the CWA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
There continues to be a concern for red flag conditions Saturday
as models continue to show a warm and breezy day. At this point
min RH values are forecast to be between 20 and 30 percent as south
winds gust around 25 to 35 MPH through the afternoon. Therefore the
potential exist for a critical range land fire danger and the
possible issuance of a red flag warning Saturday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
Area of light snow showers over TOP/FOE at 05Z should move south
of TAF sites by 06Z. Attention then turns to area of light snow
and MVFR cigs in eastern Nebraska. Believe some portion of this
moisture will impact TOP/FOE, and perhaps MHK, with MVFR cigs and
maybe a few snow showers before 12Z. Then expect a 2-4 hour period
of MVFR cigs from mid to late morning before lifting above 3000
feet.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1206 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1202 PM...THE RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH PORTLAND AND CONCORD WERE
ECLIPSED THIS MORNING. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS THAT REFLECT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET.
PREV DISC...
935 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST 14ZS
MESONET. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING
WHEN WE MIX OUT AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION...WHICH RESULTS IN RAPID
JUMPS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE RECORD HIGH AT PORTLAND /51F
SET IN 1985/ HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN. THE RECORD AT CONCORD / 60F
SET IN 1984/ WILL BE CHALLENGED AS WELL.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MIDCOAST REGION.
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...HOWEVER NOT WITH THE INTENSITY OF LAST NIGHT.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING A WARM AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH RECORD WARM TEMPS. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE TRENDS
OFF THE HRRR MODEL. THE LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO THE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDCOAST
AREA. RECORD WARM TEMPS WILL START OUT THE DAY BUT WILL COOL SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND FRI RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING A RETURN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR WITH LCL LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL
GUST OVR 40 KT UNTIL 15Z THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LLWS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE NORTH A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS CLEARED IN CARIBOU, BUT REMAINS DENSE
NORTH OF CARIBOU.
1015 AM UPDATE...ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. SIDE ROADS
REMAIN ICY HOWEVER.
920 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH UNTIL NOON.
840 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DRAMATIC TEMP GRADIENT FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET,
WITH LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS HAVE EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT. FOGGY IN SOME AREAS
AND HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
ALLOW WINTER HEADLINES TO CONTINUE INTO 10AM GIVEN THE TREACHEROUS
ROADS, ESP SIDE ROADS. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ARE ABOVE
FREEZING NOW THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR STAYING THRU TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SOME
SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
002.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1017 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. SIDE ROADS
REMAIN ICY HOWEVER.
920 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH UNTIL NOON.
840 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DRAMATIC TEMP GRADIENT FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET,
WITH LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS HAVE EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT. FOGGY IN SOME AREAS
AND HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
ALLOW WINTER HEADLINES TO CONTINUE INTO 10AM GIVEN THE TREACHEROUS
ROADS, ESP SIDE ROADS. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ARE ABOVE
FREEZING NOW THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR STAYING THRU TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SOME
SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
936 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST 14ZS
MESONET. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING
WHEN WE MIX OUT AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION...WHICH RESULTS IN RAPID
JUMPS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE RECORD HIGH AT PORTLAND /51F
SET IN 1985/ HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN. THE RECORD AT CONCORD / 60F
SET IN 1984/ WILL BE CHALLENGED AS WELL.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MIDCOAST REGION.
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...HOWEVER NOT WITH THE INTENSITY OF LAST NIGHT.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING A WARM AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH RECORD WARM TEMPS. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE TRENDS
OFF THE HRRR MODEL. THE LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO THE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDCOAST
AREA. RECORD WARM TEMPS WILL START OUT THE DAY BUT WILL COOL SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND FRI RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING A RETURN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR WITH LCL LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL
GUST OVR 40 KT UNTIL 15Z THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LLWS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
923 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH UNTIL NOON.
840 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DRAMATIC TEMP GRADIENT FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET,
WITH LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS HAVE EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT. FOGGY IN SOME AREAS
AND HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
ALLOW WINTER HEADLINES TO CONTINUE INTO 10AM GIVEN THE TREACHEROUS
ROADS, ESP SIDE ROADS. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ARE ABOVE
FREEZING NOW THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR STAYING THRU TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SOME
SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
847 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
840 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DRAMATIC TEMP GRADIENT FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET,
WITH LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS HAVE EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT. FOGGY IN SOME AREAS
AND HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
ALLOW WINTER HEADLINES TO CONTINUE INTO 10AM GIVEN THE TREACHEROUS
ROADS, ESP SIDE ROADS. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ARE ABOVE
FREEZING NOW THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR STAYING THRU TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SOME
SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
724 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING
A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
RECORD LEVELS TODAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MIDCOAST REGION.
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...HOWEVER NOT WITH THE INTENSITY OF LAST NIGHT.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING A WARM AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH RECORD WARM TEMPS. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE TRENDS
OFF THE HRRR MODEL. THE LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO THE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDCOAST
AREA. RECORD WARM TEMPS WILL START OUT THE DAY BUT WILL COOL SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND FRI RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING A RETURN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR WITH LCL LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL
GUST OVR 40 KT UNTIL 15Z THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LLWS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
644 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PRODUCED
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING W/SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS. ATTM, NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE WERE RECEIVED. TEMPS HAVE
SOARED WELL THROUGH THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FURTHER N, TEMPS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S
W/BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT WERE THAT
ROAD CONDITIONS STILL QUITE TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ST.JOHN VALLEY AND THE ALLAGASH. WILL HANG ON TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS SOME ICING STILL OCCURRING. ACROSS THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE
ISLE REGION DOWN TO HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET, WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM GIVEN SIDE ROADS COULD STILL BE ICY W/SLUSH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR W/HEAVY RAINFALL, LLWS AND CONVECTION ON TAP
ESPECIALLY KHUL TO KBHB. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE W/CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. IFR STAYING FOR TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SOME SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
448 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHERN AREAS SEEING COLD AIR STAYING WEDGED IN FOR QUITE A
WHILE W/FREEZING RAIN STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND
THE ALLAGASH W/RAIN BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ICING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINTER STORM
WARNING ACROSS THE ST.JOHN VALLEY REMAINS W/UP TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE.
THIS AREA RECEIVED 7-8 INCHES OF WET SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INCLUDING CARIBOU, PRESQUE ISLE, HOULTON AND
MILLINOCKET WILL RUN THE RISK OF ICING ESPECIALLY ON SIDE ROADS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST HAVE EXPIRED AS TEMPS
HAVE SOARED INTO 40S AND 50S INCLUDING THE COAST.
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG W/CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING CONVECTION MOVING UP
FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST.
DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE
UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED
TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS
CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP.
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO
RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE
50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST
ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR W/HEAVY RAINFALL, LLWS AND CONVECTION ON TAP
ESPECIALLY KHUL TO KBHB. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE W/CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. IFR STAYING FOR TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SOME SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
344 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING
A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
RECORD LEVELS TODAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
BRING A WARM AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH RECORD WARM TEMPS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z AS A DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE TRENDS OFF THE HRRR MODEL. THE
LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDCOAST AREA. RECORD
WARM TEMPS WILL START OUT THE DAY BUT WILL COOL SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND FRI RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING A RETURN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR WITH LCL LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL
GUST OVR 40 KT UNTIL 15Z THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LLWS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...MARINE/JENSENIUS
MARINE...JENSENIUS/MARINE
HYDROLOGY...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND TRACK
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE RAINFALL FURTHER E BASED ON THE
LATEST KCBW RADAR AND MRMS. HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 ARE HANDLING THINGS
QUITE WELL W/THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND A LARGER AREA MOVING UP THROUGH NYS INTO VT/NH BORDER. TEMPS
STILL RUNNING RIGHT AROUND 32F ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MAINE
W/FZRA ONGOING. WAA TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND W/READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS AIR WILL MAKE ITS
WAY NORTH THIS LATER MORNING. WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
EARLIER REPORTS INDICATED SOME SIDE ROADS STILL ICY DESPITE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE MID 30S. FURTHER N, WINTER WX HEADLINES(WINTER
STORM WARNING/ADVISORY)REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE WARMER AIR AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED TSTMS DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE OF
AROUND 200 JOULES AND 850-700MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM. THESE
STORMS WILL DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD BRING DOWN STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED LATER THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST RADAR REF AND DUAL POL CC IMAGERY
SHOWS A CLR TRANSITION LINE FROM SN TO PL/FZRA MOVG NWRD INTO NE
AROOSTOOK...NRN PISCATAQUIS AND XTRM NRN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AS OF
MID TO LATE AFTN...MOVG N AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. GIVEN THIS
TREND...SN SHOULD CHG TO FZRA IN THE ST JOHN VLY IN THE 6-8PM TM
FRAME. ANY SLEET SEEMS TO BE VERY BRIEF...MAYBE ABOUT A HALF AN HR
RIGHT AT CHGOVR...GIVING CREDENCE TO THE SREF PRECIP TYPE
PROBS...WHICH SHOWED LITTLE CHCS OF SLEET. OTHERWISE...ALL RN WILL
FOLLOW SUITE FROM DOWNEAST AREAS...REACHING E CNTRL AND NE PTNS OF
THE FA A COUPLE OF HRS EITHER SIDE OF MDNGT DEPENDING HOW FAR N
YOU ARE... TO THE ERLY MORN AND PRE-DAYBREAK HRS OVR THE ST JOHN
VLY.
WE ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY FOG WHERE ALL RN IS FCST TONIGHT INTO THU
MORN...THINKING THAT DWPT TEMPS AOA FZG OVR SN PACK AND COLD
GROUND WILL RESULT IN SOME LLVL CONDENSATION...DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF AN ERLY TO SERLY BREEZE. OTHERWISE...AFTER A SLOW
STEADY RISE THIS EVE...SFC TEMPS WILL RISE RAPIDLY WITH PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SSE LATER TNGT INTO THU MORN. STEADY RN
WILL TAPER TO SCT SHWRS LATER THU AFTN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...WHICH COULD FEATURE A LN OF BRIEF MDT TO HEAVY
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HI TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH HI TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 40S N AND W TO LOWER 50S S AND E BY THU AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A MOSTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND MILD START TO THE NIGHT WITH A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT REACHING WESTERN AREAS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE
DOWNEAST COAST AROUND DAWN. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION AND BY DAY BREAK FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY, DRY
AND COLDER. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO
CENTRAL CANADA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
WILL BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A MATURE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER MAKER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EARLY SUN MRNG THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
MAINE. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE FRONT OVER MAINE AS A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE CNTRL WI MOVE THE SRN END OF THE FRONT BACK ACROSS AS A
WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THRU MAINE...ITS 2NDY
LOW IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OVER NRN IA. THE GFS MON EVNG MOVES
THE WARM FRONT TO CNTRL ME...AS THE LOW MOVES TO SRN LAKE HURON.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE WARM FRONT TO SW ME...THE LOW TO SRN LAKE MI.
BY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO SRN QUEBEC/NRN VT/NH...THE
WARM FRONT OVER NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE ECMWF TO ERN LAKE
ERIE...NRN NY...THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN PISCATAQUIS/PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES. MON EVNG BOTH MODELS MOVE THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS A NEW LOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...ECMWF SHOWS A NEW LOW OVER ERN NE. THE GFS BY TUES MRNG
SHOW THE LOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WRM FRNT INTO SRN ME. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE LOW OVER NRN MO...WRM FRNT INTO ERN GREAT LAKES. BY TUES
EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE ERN GULF OF MAINE...ECMWF WRN
GULF OF MAINE. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW OVER ERN
TX. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...THEN
EAST TO THE COAST OF MASS. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST THE
WRM FRNT MOVES INTO SW ME WED MRNG. BY WED EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE
WRM FRNT INTO CNTRL ME. THE ECMWF MOVES THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE
N ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ME. BY THE OF THE PERIOD THE GFS
INDICATES THAT THE WRM FRNT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS NRN ME...THE
ECMWF SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN QUEBEC. OTHER
THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THEN DRIFT APART.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED
NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WIND GUST BY
FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONT LIFR AND LCLY VLIFR TNGT IN MIXED PRECIP TO
RN/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE N AND RN/PATCHY FOG CNTRL AND DOWNEAST.
LIFR CONDITIONS IN RN/FOG THU MORN SHOULD AT LEAST IMPROVE TO IFR
THUS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVR DOWNEAST SITES MID
TO LATE AFTN.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY RAMP UP TO GALE
FORCE GUSTS AND WV HTS UP TO 10 TO 14 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND 5
TO 9 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ THU AND THU NGT. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV HTS FOR THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM: GALES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONED TO
SCA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WHERE THERE IS STILL SIG
SN PACK ON THE GROUND AND RVR ICE. WITH THE FCST OF 1.50 TO 2.0
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIV...WHICH WILL MSLY BE RNFL...XCPT PERHAPS
ACROSS THE XTRM N (NRN ZONE1) WHERE MORE THAN HALF THE EVENT WILL
BE SNFL AND ICE. THE COMBO OF MDT TO HVY RNFL AND RAPIDLY RISING
TEMPS WILL MELT THE CURRENT SNFL AND SOME OF THE OLDER SN
PACK...RESULTING IN SIG RUN-OFF IN STREAMS AND EVENTUALLY NRN
RIVERWAYS THU INTO THU EVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MINOR STREAM
FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAMS.
URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...SPCLY
IF RN AND SN MELT RUN-OFF IS BLOCKED BY SN CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ010-011-015>017-031-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1038 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
* NWS STORM SURVEYS CONFIRMED EF-1 TORNADOES IN WAVERLY...
MECKLENBURG AND LANCASTER COUNTIES...AND ALSO A LONG-TRACK EF-1
TO EF-3 TORNADO FROM THE MIDDLE PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN
NECK...INCLUDING TAPPAHANNOCK. ALSO...STORM SURVEYS DURING TODAY
(FRIDAY) CONFIRMED EF-0 TORNADOES IN FLUVANNA COUNTY...AND
BERTIE COUNTY NC. DETAILS REGARDING EACH STORM SURVEY CAN BE
VIEWED VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS OR THE NWS WAKEFIELD
WEBSITE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AKQ UNDER NEWS HEADLINE "FEBRUARY 24,
2016 SEVERE WEATHER REVIEW".
FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY TNGT...AS THE
CNTR OF SFC HI PRES WILL SLIDE INTO THE GULF CST STATES...AND
ANOTHER UPR TROF APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE OH VALLEY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE THRU THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPR TROF WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT AFTN...WHILE THE SFC HI MOVES
SLOWLY E ALONG THE GULF CST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND NOT AS COLD SAT
NGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BLDS ACRS THE SE STATES ON SUN...AS SFC HI PRES
MOVES FM THE GULF CST TO THE WRN ATLC. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A
LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 50S TO MID 60S. HI PRES WILL SHIFT FARTHER E INTO THE ATLC SUN
NGT...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W. CLEAR THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 40S. THAT
FRONT SWINGS THRU AND OFF THE CST DURING MON. EXPECT JUST SOME
CLOUDS IN THE MORNG INTO EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT MON NIGHT/TUE...GFS/ECMWF HAVE DRY
WX WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70 F TUE (COOLER NEAR THE WATER). PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP TROUGH ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
AND WARM FRNT ASSCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE FA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. GFS/ECMWF REMAIN SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH
TIMING...ECMWF MUCH STRONGER AND FARTHER NW WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN ELONGATED
SFC LOW TRACK MOVING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WED AND ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA WED NIGHT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
A GOOD CHC FOR SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AS THIS IS DAY 5 WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED IN CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S NW AND 60S FARTHER SE WED. TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON SEVERE WX...BUT WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC TSTMS IN THE
SE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY WX BUT COOLER FOR THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. A WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE IS
SHOWN PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON FRI. WILL CARRY MORE CLOUDS AND A
20% POP ON FRI FOR NOW...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
MOST AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...THE SKY HAS CLEARED EXCEPT OVER ECG WHERE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT ABOUT 7K FT SHOULD CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS WIND DIRECTIONS BACK FROM NW TO W.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAJOR REARRANGMENT OF SCA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE BAY TO SOLID SCA AND HRRR AND RAP
BOTH HAVE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z AFTER WHICH THEY
DIMINISH. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN
THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS AT BUOY 44093 JUST OUTSIDE ANZ656
WERE 5.6 FEET AROUND 10 PM WHICH MAY BE INDICATIVE THAT AT LEAST
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES MAY BE HAVING SIMILAR READINGS.
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE NORTH AND DROPPED SCA NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. HAVE SCA TIL 4 AM IN THE BAY S OF NEW POINT
COMFORT AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALSO
ADDED CURRITUCK SOUND FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THE BAY N OF NEW POINT
COMFORT IS STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG ~970 MB SFC LOW NOW WELL OFF TO OUR N/NE ACRS ATLC
CANADA... BUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY
AND W/NW WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY TO 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. BASED ON CURRENT CONDS AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC HIGH WELL
WEST OF THE MTNS...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 7 PM
ACRS THE RIVERS (WHERE IT MAY BE MORE MARGINAL) AND THROUGH 1 AM
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER THAT AS THE SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE SW.
FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT SAT...THEN BACKS TO THE SSW SAT NIGHT
AVERAGING 5-10 KT. BY SUN...WINDS THEN INCREASE ESPECIALLY BY
AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MAY DEVELOP MARGINAL SCA
LEVELS SUN NGT INTO MON MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CASHIE RIVER NEAR WINDSOR
WHERE ONGOING MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RIVER LEVELS BEGIN TO FALL.
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY RIVER AT SEBRELL FOR
MINOR FLOODING THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
348 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE SNOW HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
ACCUMULATING OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...A
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND LOSS OF
WHAT INSOLATION WE HAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO
STICK.
DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND OMEGA
PLACEMENT ARE ALL FACTORS TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WV...MD...AND PA. HAVE BUMPED UP
THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC AND UPSLOPE
SUPPORT WHICH WILL GET OUR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG MIXING IN THE HAS PRODUCED
GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN THE RIDGES. WHILE THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD
ONLY LAST 6 HOURS OR SO...HAVE EMPHASIZED THE NEAR- ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS IN THE UPDATED WSW THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THERE IS A WINDOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED COINCIDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INVIGORATE SOME SNOW SQUALLS...AS IS EMPHASIZED IN THE
HRRR AND THE RUC IN THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THESE CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND
INVERSIONS DROP BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST A DUAL-LAKE
BAND MAY PROLONG SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-80 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY IN THOSE COUNTIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A BAND PERSISTS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN LATER FRIDAY FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WOULD RECEIVE RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WOULD HAVE SNOW MIX IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH MODELS LACKING RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...HAVE MADE RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...BULK OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONTAINED TO FKL/DUJ TERMINALS. EVEN WITH
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO 25-30 KT...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH A MON COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUING THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY TURNED TO SNOW AREA-
WIDE...WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE...AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE
ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT EARLY ON.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE AND COOLING MODEL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF MORE-ORGANIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND IN THE RIDGES PER THE
LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA. DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...AND OMEGA PLACEMENT SUPPORTS THE ONGOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WV...MD...AND PA. WILL
UP THE SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC AND UPSLOPE
SUPPORT WHICH WILL GET OUR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG MIXING IN THE HAS PRODUCED
GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN THE RIDGES. WHILE THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD
ONLY LAST 6 HOURS OR SO...HAVE EMPHASIZED THE NEAR- ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS IN THE UPDATED WSW THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THERE IS A WINDOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED
COINCIDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
INVIGORATE SOME SNOW SQUALLS...AS IS EMPHASIZED IN THE HRRR AND
THE RUC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THESE CONCERNS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
LOWER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND
INVERSIONS DROP. MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE FLIES BY LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE LATER SATURDAY. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR
SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WOULD RECEIVE RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WOULD HAVE SNOW MIX IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH MODELS LACKING RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...HAVE MADE RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...BULK OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONTAINED TO FKL/DUJ TERMINALS. EVEN WITH
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO 25-30 KT...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH A MON COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SE
CONUS FROM A LOW N OF HUDSON BAY. A STORM SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 987MB LOW OVER SW OHIO DOMINATING THE
ERN CONUS RESULTED IN INCREASING N TO NE WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS MARGINAL
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...ABUNDANT UPSTREAM 925-850 MB MOISTURE
ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT -SHSN INTO WRN
UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS FROM AROUND
30 NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WEAK CAA DROPS 850 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/THU. FCST LOW LEVEL CONV SUGGESTS THAT
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST NEAR IWD AND N CNTRL NEAR THE HURON
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 4K-5K FT...ANY AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR CNTRL AND EAST MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME BLSN
WHERE ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR.
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CAA AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS PULLING
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -15C TO -17C RANGE...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LES OVER LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NRLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NNW THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST OF MARQUETTE AND E OF
IWD. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. WITH
MORE LOOSE SNOW AVAILABLE TO BLOW AROUND...THE 30-35 MPH WINDS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF REDUCED VSBY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CHILLY WX/SOME LES ON THU NGT INTO FRI WL GIVE WAY TO A MILDER
PERIOD ON FRI NGT/SAT AS THE UPR FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL AND UPR
MI ENDS UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.
THE COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO THIS LO PRES WL PASS THRU THE CWA ON SAT
NGT...BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER WX. AS A SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA...A SFC LO PRES IS FCST TO MOVE E ALONG THE COLD FNT TO THE
S...LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SYNTOPIC SN TO THE CWA ON SUN INTO
SUN NGT. SEASONABLY CHILLY WX SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE LIGHT SN ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER CLIPPER LO
PRES ON MON.
THU NGT...ONGOING LES WL MOST PERSISTENT IN THE NNW WIND SN BELTS E
OF MQT AS COLD AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -16 TO -18C OVER
THE E HALF THRU 12Z FRI...CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE UPR LKS BTWN HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND DEPARTING SFC LO IN
QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM LLVL AIRMASS...
INVRN BASES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 4-5K FT MSL...H85-6 DRYNESS DESPITE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHRTWV DO NOT FAVOR ANY SGNFT SN ACCUMS...SOME
LLVL CNVGC ALONG LK INDUCED TROFFING INTO ALGER COUNTY AND FAVORABLE
PLACEMENT OF THE DGZ IN THE MOIST LYR BLO THE INVRN BASE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SN IN SOME AREAS. LINGERING BLSN IN THE
EVNG WL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS WITH THE SLOW
APRCH OF THE HI PRES. THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ACYC H925 FLOW/
LOWERING INVRN BASE WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE HI PRES WL DIMINISH
LINGERING LES OVER THE W DURING THE OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS
MAY TEND TO BREAK UP LATE OVER THE W...SOME INCOMING HI CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WEAK SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.
FRI/FRI NGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS CROSSES THE WRN GREAT LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WSW ON FRI...LINGERING LES WL DIMINISH AND
END. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS MAY TEND TO SHIFT OUT OVER LK SUP...
MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHRTWV AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS WL RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI
CLD COVER. BUT FCST DRYNESS OF THE H85-7 LYR IN THE ABSENCE OF LLVL
MSTR INFLOW WL RESTRICT LO CHC POPS TO MAINLY LK SUP CLOSER TO SFC
LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. AS THE WAA LIFTS H85 TEMPS BACK TO -6
TO -8C LATE OVER THE W BY 00Z SAT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND AT LEAST
CLOSE TO 30. A STEADY WSW WIND AND THE MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE FALL
OF TEMPS ON FRI NGT.
SAT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE RECENT TREND SHOWING SFC COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO AND MOVING INTO QUEBEC
REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA THRU 00Z SUN. WITH THE WAA FCST TO
LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 4C ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 00Z SUN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S
DESPITE SOME LINGERING HI CLDS. POSTED THE HIEST MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
WI BORDER...WHERE THERE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SOME SUNSHINE FARTHER S
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S THRU
THE CWA ON SAT NGT TO THE S OF CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD NW ONTARIO.
WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF WL OCCUR UNDER DRY AIR AND THUS LIKELY BE
PCPN FREE...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AN AXIS OF HIER MID LVL
MSTR WL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA BY SUN AHEAD OF AN APRCHG
SHRTWV THAT WL ALSO CAUSE A LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE BNDRY
SINKING SLOWLY TO THE S. AS THIS WAVE OF LO PRES SHIFTS TO THE E
THRU SCENTRAL WI UNDER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA OF UPR DVGC
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET MAX OVER SE CANADA AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...THE MODELS SHOW WDSPRD MAINLY SN DVLPG OVER THE CWA ON SUN
UNDER AXIS OF H7 FGEN. WHILE MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SN...
GFS FCST SDNGS HINT AT AN ELEVATED WARM LYR OVER THE S HALF OF MNM
COUNTY...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING RA/RA IN THAT AREA
INTO SUN AFTN AND BEFORE THE COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THAT AREA. THE
12Z CNDN MODEL IS PARTICULARLY WET...WITH 12HR QPF UP TO 0.75 INCH
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BTWN 18Z SUN AND 06Z MON. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE NOT
THAT WET BUT GENERATE AS MUCH AS 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN TIER WHERE SHARPENING CYC NE FLOW ARND THE LO PRES WAVE WL
UPSLOPE AND BRING SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -12
TO -14C. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...SYNTOPIC SN WL TRANSITION TO
LES.
EXTENDED...THE EXTENDED MODELS...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS...HINT
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE WL MOVE NEAR THE AREA ON MON. SO
THE FCST WL SHOW SOME CHC POPS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN HINT
ANOTHER SFC LO DVLPG OVER THE SCENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE TOWARD THE SE
GREAT LKS BY WED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE
SE...BUT RETAINED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP WITH
LLVL NNE FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SFC LO POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
LES. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE NEAR EARLY MAR NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE AT TIMES. WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VIS TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY TODAY...PARTICULARLY AT KSAW
DUE TO FAVORABLE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION AND TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
BTWN HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES LIFTING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO SE CANADA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
N-NW GALES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEEKENS BETWEEN EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER S QUEBEC...AND NEARING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CO. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BEFORE SINKING
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT-SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER N ONTARIO FRIDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BAY AN
ADDITIONAL LOW SLIDING AND STRENGTHENING FROM CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND EAST OF JAMES BAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO LATE SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WITH A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND N PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL LOW WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST...CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1154 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SE
CONUS FROM A LOW N OF HUDSON BAY. A STORM SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 987MB LOW OVER SW OHIO DOMINATING THE
ERN CONUS RESULTED IN INCREASING N TO NE WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS MARGINAL
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...ABUNDANT UPSTREAM 925-850 MB MOISTURE
ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT -SHSN INTO WRN
UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS FROM AROUND
30 NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WEAK CAA DROPS 850 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/THU. FCST LOW LEVEL CONV SUGGESTS THAT
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST NEAR IWD AND N CNTRL NEAR THE HURON
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 4K-5K FT...ANY AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR CNTRL AND EAST MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME BLSN
WHERE ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR.
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CAA AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS PULLING
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -15C TO -17C RANGE...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LES OVER LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NRLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NNW THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST OF MARQUETTE AND E OF
IWD. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. WITH
MORE LOOSE SNOW AVAILABLE TO BLOW AROUND...THE 30-35 MPH WINDS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF REDUCED VSBY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CHILLY WX/SOME LES ON THU NGT INTO FRI WL GIVE WAY TO A MILDER
PERIOD ON FRI NGT/SAT AS THE UPR FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL AND UPR
MI ENDS UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.
THE COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO THIS LO PRES WL PASS THRU THE CWA ON SAT
NGT...BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER WX. AS A SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA...A SFC LO PRES IS FCST TO MOVE E ALONG THE COLD FNT TO THE
S...LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SYNTOPIC SN TO THE CWA ON SUN INTO
SUN NGT. SEASONABLY CHILLY WX SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE LIGHT SN ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER CLIPPER LO
PRES ON MON.
THU NGT...ONGOING LES WL MOST PERSISTENT IN THE NNW WIND SN BELTS E
OF MQT AS COLD AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -16 TO -18C OVER
THE E HALF THRU 12Z FRI...CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE UPR LKS BTWN HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND DEPARTING SFC LO IN
QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM LLVL AIRMASS...
INVRN BASES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 4-5K FT MSL...H85-6 DRYNESS DESPITE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHRTWV DO NOT FAVOR ANY SGNFT SN ACCUMS...SOME
LLVL CNVGC ALONG LK INDUCED TROFFING INTO ALGER COUNTY AND FAVORABLE
PLACEMENT OF THE DGZ IN THE MOIST LYR BLO THE INVRN BASE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SN IN SOME AREAS. LINGERING BLSN IN THE
EVNG WL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS WITH THE SLOW
APRCH OF THE HI PRES. THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ACYC H925 FLOW/
LOWERING INVRN BASE WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE HI PRES WL DIMINISH
LINGERING LES OVER THE W DURING THE OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS
MAY TEND TO BREAK UP LATE OVER THE W...SOME INCOMING HI CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WEAK SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.
FRI/FRI NGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS CROSSES THE WRN GREAT LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WSW ON FRI...LINGERING LES WL DIMINISH AND
END. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS MAY TEND TO SHIFT OUT OVER LK SUP...
MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHRTWV AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS WL RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI
CLD COVER. BUT FCST DRYNESS OF THE H85-7 LYR IN THE ABSENCE OF LLVL
MSTR INFLOW WL RESTRICT LO CHC POPS TO MAINLY LK SUP CLOSER TO SFC
LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. AS THE WAA LIFTS H85 TEMPS BACK TO -6
TO -8C LATE OVER THE W BY 00Z SAT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND AT LEAST
CLOSE TO 30. A STEADY WSW WIND AND THE MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE FALL
OF TEMPS ON FRI NGT.
SAT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE RECENT TREND SHOWING SFC COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO AND MOVING INTO QUEBEC
REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA THRU 00Z SUN. WITH THE WAA FCST TO
LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 4C ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 00Z SUN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S
DESPITE SOME LINGERING HI CLDS. POSTED THE HIEST MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
WI BORDER...WHERE THERE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SOME SUNSHINE FARTHER S
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S THRU
THE CWA ON SAT NGT TO THE S OF CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD NW ONTARIO.
WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF WL OCCUR UNDER DRY AIR AND THUS LIKELY BE
PCPN FREE...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AN AXIS OF HIER MID LVL
MSTR WL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA BY SUN AHEAD OF AN APRCHG
SHRTWV THAT WL ALSO CAUSE A LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE BNDRY
SINKING SLOWLY TO THE S. AS THIS WAVE OF LO PRES SHIFTS TO THE E
THRU SCENTRAL WI UNDER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA OF UPR DVGC
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET MAX OVER SE CANADA AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...THE MODELS SHOW WDSPRD MAINLY SN DVLPG OVER THE CWA ON SUN
UNDER AXIS OF H7 FGEN. WHILE MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SN...
GFS FCST SDNGS HINT AT AN ELEVATED WARM LYR OVER THE S HALF OF MNM
COUNTY...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING RA/RA IN THAT AREA
INTO SUN AFTN AND BEFORE THE COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THAT AREA. THE
12Z CNDN MODEL IS PARTICULARLY WET...WITH 12HR QPF UP TO 0.75 INCH
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BTWN 18Z SUN AND 06Z MON. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE NOT
THAT WET BUT GENERATE AS MUCH AS 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN TIER WHERE SHARPENING CYC NE FLOW ARND THE LO PRES WAVE WL
UPSLOPE AND BRING SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -12
TO -14C. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...SYNTOPIC SN WL TRANSITION TO
LES.
EXTENDED...THE EXTENDED MODELS...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS...HINT
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE WL MOVE NEAR THE AREA ON MON. SO
THE FCST WL SHOW SOME CHC POPS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN HINT
ANOTHER SFC LO DVLPG OVER THE SCENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE TOWARD THE SE
GREAT LKS BY WED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE
SE...BUT RETAINED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP WITH
LLVL NNE FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SFC LO POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
LES. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE NEAR EARLY MAR NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE AT TIMES. WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VIS TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY TODAY...PARTICULARLY AT KSAW
DUE TO FAVORABLE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION AND TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
BTWN HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES LIFTING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO SE CANADA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WILL WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO SHIFTSINTO N QUEBEC. THE RESULT WILL BE N-NE
GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES THURSDAY BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE REPLACED BY A
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WHILE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES N
ONTARIO. SW GUSTS COULD NEAR 30KTS FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
WRN LAKES SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BRIEFLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A CLIPPER LOW MOVE IN MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.AVIATION...
SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MUCH
OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE DUE TO FOG...WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING MAINLY MBS. THE AXIS OF MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW WILL ROTATE BACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE MORNING.
THE OVERALL TREND AS THE SNOW PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE A
WEAKENING ONE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AT PTK/FNT/MBS THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. WITH THE SNOWFALL...CIGS AND VSBY
WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND LOW END MVFR. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER
WILL HOWEVER HOLD WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO AFTERNOON. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AS MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW OVERSPREADS METRO. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC TEMPS AT METRO SHOULD
HOLD BETWEEN 32 AND 33 DEGREES. MORNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
* MODERATE IN PRECIP BEING ALL SNOW THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 907 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
UPDATE...
EARLIER THIS EVENING...A QUASI STATIONARY REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING SUPPORTED AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL...ALIGNED
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE IRISH HILLS. THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SINCE LIFTED NORTHWARD WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTED A DECREASE IN THE SLOPE OF THE THETA SURFACES. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A RAPID REFOCUSING OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL NORTHWARD INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...WITH A
LARGE BREAK IN THE SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW
COUNTIES. THE REGION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY ADVANCE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING ACROSS SRN MI BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A SECOND REGION OF PRECIP HAS ADVANCED INTO
MONROE AND WAYNE/SRN MACOMB COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG FGEN NEAR 850MB. THIS
HAS BEEN MORE CONVECTIVE AND IS PRODUCING A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET
AND RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO LIGHT SNOW TOWARD EARLY THURS
MORNING AS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WORKS BACK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
AVAILABLE SPOTTER REPORTS THIS EVENING SUGGEST A SOLID 6 TO 10
INCHES HAS FALLEN NORTH AND WEST OF AN ADRIAN TO PORT HURON LINE
/ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRISH HILLS/. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THIS LINE WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES AS PRECIP TURNED
OVER TO RAIN IN THESE LOCALS. GIVEN THE LARGE BREAK IN PRECIP
ACROSS LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AND CONSIDERING THE SNOW
THAT MOVES BACK INTO THESE AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE WARNING FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES WILL BE
UNCHANGED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2
TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NRN SAGINAW
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IN THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING...WHICH
CERTAINLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN EARLIER
CANCELLATION TO SOME OF THE HEADLINES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST
PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
DISCUSSION...
WARM CONVEYOR BELT WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO BRUNT OF THE WINTER STORM FOR CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH EXCELLENT SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND AND ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OFF AND
ON NATURE OF PRECIPITATION...ALLOWED FOR TREATED/HIGH TRAFFIC ROADS
TO BE MAINLY WET WITH THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE...UP UNTIL THE
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ARRIVED. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
SOLIDLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...WITH EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF SAGINAW BAY/SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES 1/4SM OR LESS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY...AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY NEAR ZERO CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A PERIOD TO
SUPPORT BLIZZARD WARNING.
WITH THE IMPINGING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASING UP NEAR 6.75 C/KM TOWARD OHIO BORDER...A LIGHTNING STRIKE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER 12Z
EURO/RAP13...A ONE TO THREE C WARM LAYER...NEAR 850 MB
LEVEL...EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF WESTERN MONROE...WESTERN
WAYNE...NORTHEAST TO PORT HURON LINE THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION (DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY) INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (LITTLE ACCUMULATION) IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH DAYTON AND THEN IN
BETWEEN CLEVELAND AND AKRON LATE. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR BLEED
IN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH BIGGEST DROP
PROBABLY HOLDING OFF LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON
NORTHWEST DIRECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO SETTLE TO -8 C
OR SLIGHTLY COLDER.
700 MB LOW/CIRCULATION LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT FAIRLY ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-
SOUTH FASHION...CALLING INTO QUESTION EXACTLY WHERE THE BETTER
DEFORMATION/MID LEVEL FGEN/FORCING WILL RESIDE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
PLENTY OF EVIDENCE TO MAINTAIN BAND(S) ACROSS NORTH HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH COOLING PROFILES LEADING TO BETTER
RATIOS AS NIGHT WEARS ON. 12HR EURO QPF FOR TONIGHT STILL INDICATING
0.35 TO 0.5 INCHES NORTH OF M-59. TWEAKED TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN
SLIGHTLY (AROUND ONE INCH) FROM MORNING UPDATE...AS COMPACTION IS A
FACTOR AND SLEET EXTENDED JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...BUT ALL CURRENT
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. ALTHOUGH...NOT IN LOVE WITH THE ADVISORY FOR
MONROE COUNTY...AS LITTLE ISSUES EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NONE-THE-
LESS...WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW RETURNING BY THURSDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS BY THEN.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STILL ON TRACK TO KICK THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ALLOW SNOW TO
TAPER OFF NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON THURSDAY...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER AND STILL SOME 925 MB COLD ADVECTION...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW TO TAKE HOLD...AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE LOW TO
MID TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT...A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY WILL
TEND TO END ANY ACTIVITY AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE IN THE
DAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST CANADIAN LOW DROPS OVER THE DAKOTA`S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BEGINS ITS EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD MICHIGAN. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST. AT PRESENT...INCREASING CHANCES
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURES DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY STABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30`S AND LOWS IN THE
20`S.
MARINE...
GUSTS TO STRONG NORTHEAST GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
HELPING TO BUILD SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
AND POSSIBLY THE EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TIP OF THE THUMB TO
13 FEET WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 20 FEET. AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE EAST...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGER FETCH WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BUILD TO 16 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON WITH MAX WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 25 FEET OR GREATER. GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON
REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY BEFORE FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF ONE HALF INCH IN EXPECTED NORTH OF I-
69 THROUGH TONIGHT ONE TO TWO TENTHS TO THE SOUTH. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF AN ADRIAN TO PORT HURON LINE...ABOUT HALF WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE...ALL QPF WILL GO INTO SNOWPACK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ075-076-082-
083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...SF/DE
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1129 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
UPDATED TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS WITH TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST.
THINK A BRIEF PERIOD -SN IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER OVER NW WI WITH THIS BAND SO HAVE
TRENDED THE BAND OF POPS LOWER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT A
MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE MAIN SNOW BAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CURRENT RUC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH FALLING 850HPA TEMPS. THE COOLING ALOFT HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...HOLDING OFF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AS THE LAPSE RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN RECEIVING FLURRIES TO A
DUSTING...AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SEEING
AN INCH OR TWO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND IRON RANGE AREAS AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DIFFICULT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/DURATION OF
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 40S. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND ELSEWHERE UP TO AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN TEMPS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL COME OUT OF CENTRAL
MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS HAD THE MORE POTENT SOLUTION...IN TONIGHTS 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKER...AS IS THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY ENDING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER- MOVING SUNDAY SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS...LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY...BUT THEN WARMING
RIGHT UP AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CIGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THIS
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION. VSBYS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN SOME
PATCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 00Z. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION BEING HYR WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON LONGER DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS MOVING INLAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 12 32 27 / 30 10 0 0
INL 26 5 34 25 / 30 0 0 0
BRD 31 16 36 26 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 31 12 32 25 / 20 30 0 0
ASX 30 12 33 28 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1004 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
UPDATED TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS WITH TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST.
THINK A BRIEF PERIOD -SN IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER OVER NW WI WITH THIS BAND SO HAVE
TRENDED THE BAND OF POPS LOWER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT A
MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE MAIN SNOW BAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CURRENT RUC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH FALLING 850HPA TEMPS. THE COOLING ALOFT HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...HOLDING OFF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AS THE LAPSE RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN RECEIVING FLURRIES TO A
DUSTING...AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SEEING
AN INCH OR TWO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND IRON RANGE AREAS AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DIFFICULT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/DURATION OF
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 40S. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND ELSEWHERE UP TO AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN TEMPS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL COME OUT OF CENTRAL
MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS HAD THE MORE POTENT SOLUTION...IN TONIGHTS 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKER...AS IS THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY ENDING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER- MOVING SUNDAY SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS...LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY...BUT THEN WARMING
RIGHT UP AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY. WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS. TONIGHT AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WHILE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 12 32 27 / 30 10 0 0
INL 26 5 34 25 / 30 0 0 0
BRD 31 16 36 26 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 31 12 32 25 / 20 30 0 0
ASX 30 12 33 28 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
548 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CURRENT RUC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH FALLING 850HPA TEMPS. THE COOLING ALOFT HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...HOLDING OFF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AS THE LAPSE RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN RECEIVING FLURRIES TO A
DUSTING...AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SEEING
AN INCH OR TWO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND IRON RANGE AREAS AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DIFFICULT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/DURATION OF
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 40S. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND ELSEWHERE UP TO AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN TEMPS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL COME OUT OF CENTRAL
MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS HAD THE MORE POTENT SOLUTION...IN TONIGHTS 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKER...AS IS THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY ENDING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER- MOVING SUNDAY SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS...LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY...BUT THEN WARMING
RIGHT UP AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY. WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS. TONIGHT AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WHILE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 12 32 27 / 10 0 0 0
INL 26 5 34 25 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 31 16 36 26 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 31 12 32 25 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 30 12 33 28 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
348 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CURRENT RUC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH FALLING 850HPA TEMPS. THE COOLING ALOFT HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...HOLDING OFF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AS THE LAPSE RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN RECEIVING FLURRIES TO A
DUSTING...AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SEEING
AN INCH OR TWO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND IRON RANGE AREAS AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DIFFICULT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/DURATION OF
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 40S. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND ELSEWHERE UP TO AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN TEMPS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL COME OUT OF CENTRAL
MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS HAD THE MORE POTENT SOLUTION...IN TONIGHTS 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKER...AS IS THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY ENDING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER- MOVING SUNDAY SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS...LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY...BUT THEN WARMING
RIGHT UP AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MN...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE DRY AIR TAKE HOLD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM NE TO SW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE
REGION...SCOURING OUT MVFR CIGS ACROSS NC MN...CENTRAL MN AND NW
WI. THEN...STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING MORE MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 12 32 27 / 10 0 0 0
INL 26 5 34 25 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 31 16 36 26 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 31 12 32 25 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 30 12 33 28 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1148 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a compact vort max
propagating around the periphery of the upper level trough moving
through the Great Lakes region. This shot of energy and associated
isentropic lift will bring a few light snow showers into the western
half of the CWA this morning. Bufkit soundings have moistened up the
low levels compared to previous soundings. The HRRR also supports
some light precip through about 19Z. As temperatures rise this
morning, any precip may change to more of a rain/snow mix or light
rain showers. Winds will become gusty on the backside of this system
and cloud cover looks to remain through the day before clearing late
this afternoon and evening.
Fire weather concerns are expected this weekend as temperatures warm
into the upper 60s and maybe low 70s. Southwest winds will allow
relative humidities to potentially drop into the 20s and 30s in a
set-up that looks similar to last weeks critical fire weather days.
With limited moisture this month, fuels are are dry and any fire
that ignites will burn readily.
Focus then turns to precip chances late in the weekend and then
again early in the work week. A shortwave trough will swing through
Sunday, but with limited moisture in place best precip chances look
to remain well north of the region. The best chances for precip will
focus on a trough diving south out of the intermountain west Monday
or Tuesday. This system will deepen as it ejects into the plains,
but long-range models are still having difficulty with the timing,
track, and overall strength of the system. Depending on these
factors, some locations in the CWA could see some spring snow
while other locations see some thunder.
.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR to low end VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through
sunset before cloud cover breaks up. Cloud cover should break up as a
surface ridge slides east into Missouri, which will allow winds to go
light and variable overnight, turning to the southwest Friday
morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
512 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a compact vort max
propagating around the periphery of the upper level trough moving
through the Great Lakes region. This shot of energy and associated
isentropic lift will bring a few light snow showers into the western
half of the CWA this morning. Bufkit soundings have moistened up the
low levels compared to previous soundings. The HRRR also supports
some light precip through about 19Z. As temperatures rise this
morning, any precip may change to more of a rain/snow mix or light
rain showers. Winds will become gusty on the backside of this system
and cloud cover looks to remain through the day before clearing late
this afternoon and evening.
Fire weather concerns are expected this weekend as temperatures warm
into the upper 60s and maybe low 70s. Southwest winds will allow
relative humidities to potentially drop into the 20s and 30s in a
set-up that looks similar to last weeks critical fire weather days.
With limited moisture this month, fuels are are dry and any fire
that ignites will burn readily.
Focus then turns to precip chances late in the weekend and then
again early in the work week. A shortwave trough will swing through
Sunday, but with limited moisture in place best precip chances look
to remain well north of the region. The best chances for precip will
focus on a trough diving south out of the intermountain west Monday
or Tuesday. This system will deepen as it ejects into the plains,
but long-range models are still having difficulty with the timing,
track, and overall strength of the system. Depending on these
factors, some locations in the CWA could see some spring snow
while other locations see some thunder.
.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 507 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A shortwave trough rotating around the larger parent system across
the Great Lakes has brought some light snow and flurries to the
terminals this morning. This showery activity will likely continue
through 17-18Z before ending completely. MVFR cigs have moved in with
the snow but cigs should gradually increase into the afternoon with
clearing skies in the evening. Northwest winds will become gusty
again this afternoon before becoming light tonight. Winds will
gradually back around to more southwesterly by tomorrow morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a compact vort max
propagating around the periphery of the upper level trough moving
through the Great Lakes region. This shot of energy and associated
isentropic lift will bring a few light snow showers into the western
half of the CWA this morning. Bufkit soundings have moistened up the
low levels compared to previous soundings. The HRRR also supports
some light precip through about 19Z. As temperatures rise this
morning, any precip may change to more of a rain/snow mix or light
rain showers. Winds will become gusty on the backside of this system
and cloud cover looks to remain through the day before clearing late
this afternoon and evening.
Fire weather concerns are expected this weekend as temperatures warm
into the upper 60s and maybe low 70s. Southwest winds will allow
relative humidities to potentially drop into the 20s and 30s in a
set-up that looks similar to last weeks critical fire weather days.
With limited moisture this month, fuels are are dry and any fire
that ignites will burn readily.
Focus then turns to precip chances late in the weekend and then
again early in the work week. A shortwave trough will swing through
Sunday, but with limited moisture in place best precip chances look
to remain well north of the region. The best chances for precip will
focus on a trough diving south out of the intermountain west Monday
or Tuesday. This system will deepen as it ejects into the plains,
but long-range models are still having difficulty with the timing,
track, and overall strength of the system. Depending on these
factors, some locations in the CWA could see some spring snow
while other locations see some thunder.
.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
Clear skies will give way to MVFR stratus approaching from the
northwest overnight. Precipitation within this wave should dissipate
prior to reaching the terminals, though a few flurries may occur at
KSTJ if the activity holds together into early Thursday morning.
The stratus layer will hang on through much of the morning and into
the early afternoon before eventually lifting by sunset. Winds will
remain steady out of the NW until Thursday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1139 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE FROM
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT. IT DID HAVE 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS IN WRN ND AT 12Z...AND 300 MB WINDS
WERE AROUND 115 KNOTS FROM SASK DOWN INTO WRN SD. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED ECHOES DROPPING SEWD ACROSS SD AND PARTS
OF NRN NE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND EVEN A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE AT SOME SPOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS. RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING ARE INTERESTING...WITH SOME 40-50 DBZ
ECHOES SHOWN. WILL MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
(TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW BY MID EVENING) THEN A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW (DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIME) AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED AREAS GETTING AROUND AN INCH.
EXPECT LOWS 25 TO 30 AND WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING.
FLURRIES COULD LINGER THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS MAY
BE AROUND 30 MPH OR HIGHER. HIGHS SHOULD BE 35 TO 40 NORTH AND 38
TO 42 SOUTH.
THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS DRY. MID
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY. STRONGER
WARMING SETS IN FOR SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN...WITH A MILD DAY ON TAP. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S...FAIRLY CLOSE TO OR ABOVE GFS MOS. DEWPOINTS AT THIS
TIME LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS DOWN...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLY LAGGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT OUR AREA
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR ABOUT
THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MODEST 850-500 MB MEAN RH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY NUMBERS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT TOO.
OTHERWISE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE
SPREADS PCPN INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN IN OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THE PCPN TYPE ACROSS
ERN NE AND SWRN IA WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW MORE
LIKELY IN OUR NRN ZONES AND RAIN MORE LIKELY SRN ZONES. AT THIS
POINT...BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS QPF VALUES ARE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER MAY BE TOO DRY. AT LEAST SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BUT HELD ONTO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KOMA AND KLNK TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. CIGS NEAR FL015 AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON
IN THESE SHOWERS...BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. A
PERIOD OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR NEAR FL050 IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK AND KLNK...WITH KOMA LIKELY SEEING
CIGS NEAR FL025 MUCH OF THAT PERIOD. THEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
SHOULD RULE MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN
AND MOISTURE IN THE FL015 TO FL040 LAYER. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
OR MOVE OUT OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25KT ARE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z AS WELL...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO LESS
THAN 10KT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
311 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY, COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN.
LEFT-OVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL
BE DRY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S. MILDER WEATHER
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE A
LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...RELYING ON THE HRRR AND BTV6 MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT STILL CUT ACROSS VERMONT.
BEEN SOME LOCALIZED 1/3 TO 1/2" OR ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS MORNING
FROM THOSE SHOWERS. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING WHAT THE MESO-MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED WOULD HAPPEN -- NAMELY THE RAINFALL BECOMING MORE
SPREAD OUT IN AREA. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SPOKE OF ENERGY IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BAND. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS VERMONT FOR THAT
REASON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHER PRECIPIATION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. COLDER AIR IS WAITING IN THE WINGS, BUT
WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY OOZING INTO THE REGION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW GETS BY, THEN THE OVERALL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ADVECT THE COLDER AIR IN. AS A RESULT, THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE A SLOW ONE. IN GENERAL, MOST
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY 00Z, NORTHERN
VERMONT IN THE 01-03Z RANGE AND CENTRAL VERMONT 02-04Z TIME. AS
THE COLDER AIR COMES IN, THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING, SO NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. PERHAPS A DUSTING TO
0.3" IN THE VALLEYS TO 1-3" AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ALL THE WATER ON ROADS AND LOW-
LYING AREAS FREEZING UP AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. COULD MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING.
AS I MENTIONED THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER
THE PLACE. NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ADEQUATELY ABLE
TO CAPTURE ALL THE VARIABILITY. HAVE NOTED THE ST JOHNSBURY ASOS
HAS HIT 59F (WHICH SUGGESTS WE MIGHT HAVE A RECORD HIGH THERE --
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION, AS THE ASOS IS
UNOFFICIAL), YET AT THE SAME TIME NEWPORT AND MONTPELIER ARE
43-44F. HIGHGATE VT IS AT 38F, WHILE HERE IN BURLINGTON IT`S 48F.
ONE LAST THING TO MENTION, AS COLDER AIR FINALLY FILTERS IN, WE`LL
SEE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOP (SURFACE TO ABOUT 2000
FEET), AND THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT
TIMES -- 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR A LITTLE MORE ABOUT THE ONGOING
RIVER/ICE JAM ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1034MB HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS OUR
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING BEFORE 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DEVELOP BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY
DEPEND UPON WINDS AND CLOUDS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS NEAR -14C...WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR SUPERBLEND VALUES WHICH
SUPPORT NEAR 0F SLK/NEK TO LOWER/MID TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT 5H VORT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CROSS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER ALONG WITH BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. LATEST TRENDS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...ALONG WITH LIGHT QPF FIELDS. WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO
NORTHERN VT MOUNTAINS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM BTWN -10C AND -12C
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MID 20S MTNS TO MID 30S
VALLEYS. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
FIELDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS NORTH TAPER TO SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR QPF/SNOWFALL EXPECTED ON SAT NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
925 TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES. THINKING LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA.
FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS PLACE MOST OF OUR CWA BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH PROGGED
925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES ABOVE 0C...WITH 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES >540DAM...SUPPORTING MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
FRONT SIDE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST VT...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ANY PRECIP
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSITION ANY MIX OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY...GIVEN LOW LEVEL
WINDS WITH LOW/MID 30S SLV TO MID 40S SOUTHERN VT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN OUR REGION AND THE MID
ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM BY WEDS INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...PLACING MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...LATEST PROGGES SHOW TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY....NORTHERN NY AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNT OF
PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FULL MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
RANGING VFR TO IFR. VFR IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL BECOME MVFR
BY EVENING, WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF IFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS - FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK,
LAST ACROSS VERMONT. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FRIDAY, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE BY 15Z
FRIDAY. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT
MOST TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV AND MSS.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1250 PM EST THURSDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM 1.25 TO 2.25" OF RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. NOT THAT WE HAD A LOT OF
SNOWPACK, BUT IT WAS ENOUGH TO ADD IN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT.
ALL HAS RESULTED IN THE PROBLEMS WE`VE SEEN. WITH THE RAIN
BASICALLY OVER, THE UPSTREAM RIVER LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THEIR
CRESTS, WITH THE FLOOD WAVES MOVING DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT THOSE FLOOD
CRESTS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN
ISSUES FOR THE NORTHERN RIVERS (LAMOILLE, GREAT CHAZY, PASSUMPSIC,
MISSISQUOI) WHERE WE HAD THE THICKER ICE. THE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING, THAT RUNOFF WILL FREEZE UP AND THIS WILL SPEED UP
THE DROP IN RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY, COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN.
LEFT-OVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL
BE DRY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S. MILDER WEATHER
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE A
LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...RELYING ON THE HRRR AND BTV6 MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT STILL CUT ACROSS VERMONT.
BEEN SOME LOCALIZED 1/3 TO 1/2" OR ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS MORNING
FROM THOSE SHOWERS. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING WHAT THE MESO-MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED WOULD HAPPEN -- NAMELY THE RAINFALL BECOMING MORE
SPREAD OUT IN AREA. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SPOKE OF ENERGY IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BAND. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS VERMONT FOR THAT
REASON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHER PRECIPIATION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. COLDER AIR IS WAITING IN THE WINGS, BUT
WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY OOZING INTO THE REGION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW GETS BY, THEN THE OVERALL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ADVECT THE COLDER AIR IN. AS A RESULT, THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE A SLOW ONE. IN GENERAL, MOST
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY 00Z, NORTHERN
VERMONT IN THE 01-03Z RANGE AND CENTRAL VERMONT 02-04Z TIME. AS
THE COLDER AIR COMES IN, THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING, SO NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. PERHAPS A DUSTING TO
0.3" IN THE VALLEYS TO 1-3" AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ALL THE WATER ON ROADS AND LOW-
LYING AREAS FREEZING UP AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. COULD MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING.
AS I MENTIONED THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER
THE PLACE. NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ADEQUATELY ABLE
TO CAPTURE ALL THE VARIABILITY. HAVE NOTED THE ST JOHNSBURY ASOS
HAS HIT 59F (WHICH SUGGESTS WE MIGHT HAVE A RECORD HIGH THERE --
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION, AS THE ASOS IS
UNOFFICIAL), YET AT THE SAME TIME NEWPORT AND MONTPELIER ARE
43-44F. HIGHGATE VT IS AT 38F, WHILE HERE IN BURLINGTON IT`S 48F.
ONE LAST THING TO MENTION, AS COLDER AIR FINALLY FILTERS IN, WE`LL
SEE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOP (SURFACE TO ABOUT 2000
FEET), AND THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT
TIMES -- 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR A LITTLE MORE ABOUT THE ONGOING
RIVER/ICE JAM ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN VERMONT, BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A PARTIALLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 319 AM EST THURSDAY...THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVING TWO ADDITIONAL THREATS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION
AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM BY
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PRESENT A CHALLENGING PERIOD
OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTING AS THE POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
WAFFLING NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TYPICAL NON-DIURNAL TRENDS ETC. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF MODEST CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
POLAR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH BY
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS CLIPPER ENERGY
TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. THUS THE IDEA OF A
SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES, THE POLAR FRONT WILL SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION YET
AGAIN WITH SOME BACKSIDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE SOME
SCT FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SIGNS THAT YET ANOTHER INLAND RUNNER TYPE
OF SYSTEM OF SOUTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WILL PHASE WITH ITS NORTHERN
COUNTERPART AND TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS OR NEARBY
ENVIRONS BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD BRING A HIGHER
THREAT OF MIXED PCPN AND POSSIBLE RAIN TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK AMONG
THIS MORNING`S DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WILL LEAN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OFFERING DECENT CHANCES OF FRONT END LIGHT SNOWS
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS LINGERS
INITIALLY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FULL MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
RANGING VFR TO IFR. VFR IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL BECOME MVFR
BY EVENING, WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF IFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS - FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK,
LAST ACROSS VERMONT. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FRIDAY, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE BY 15Z
FRIDAY. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT
MOST TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV AND MSS.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1250 PM EST THURSDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM 1.25 TO 2.25" OF RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. NOT THAT WE HAD A LOT OF
SNOWPACK, BUT IT WAS ENOUGH TO ADD IN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT.
ALL HAS RESULTED IN THE PROBLEMS WE`VE SEEN. WITH THE RAIN
BASICALLY OVER, THE UPSTREAM RIVER LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THEIR
CRESTS, WITH THE FLOOD WAVES MOVING DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT THOSE FLOOD
CRESTS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN
ISSUES FOR THE NORTHERN RIVERS (LAMOILLE, GREAT CHAZY, PASSUMPSIC,
MISSISQUOI) WHERE WE HAD THE THICKER ICE. THE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING, THAT RUNOFF WILL FREEZE UP AND THIS WILL SPEED UP
THE DROP IN RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
943 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY, AND EVENTUALLY OFF
INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH LIGHTER THAN THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THEN PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY FRIDAY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF NORTHERN VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 928 AM EST THURSDAY...LOTS OF VARIETY GOING ON ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. CLOSELY WATCHING THE RIVERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE SOME TRANSIENT ICE JAMS ALONG WITH
THE HIGH WATER FLOWS ARE CAUSING SOME ISSUES. AT LEAST THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED, SO LESS WORRY FOR SMALLER STREAMS.
SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL STILL BE ON THE RISE.
RADAR SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE ALBANY NY AREA.
HRRR, BTV6 AND RAP CAPTURE THIS FEATURE WELL. EXPECT IT TO ONLY
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD AND EXPAND IN AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. A
LITTLE MORE STRATIFORM LOOK TO THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE
WEST ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE BUFFALO NY AREA AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. AS IT FINALLY PASSES BY EARLY AFTERNOON, COLDER
AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN RESULTING IN A CHANGE OF PRECIPTATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. USED A MIX OF NAM AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS AS
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO CREATE THE
PRECIPTIATION-TYPE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE
TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE MESSY, AND A
LITTLE BIT OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. DRY SLOT ACROSS VERMONT HAS
ALLOWED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
BTV HAS SO FAR REACHED 53F. MEANWHILE LOTS OF 34-40F READINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AND IN EASTERN VERMONT, PROTECTED
VALLEYS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S, BUT JUST A FEW MILES AWAY WE
SEE TEMPERATURES OF 48 TO 52F. IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN START TO SLOWLY FALL. HOWEVER
SOME PLACES MAY SEE QUICK SPIKES UP AND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES AS
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR GETS DISPLACED AND MOVES AROUND. I`VE TRIED MY
BEST TO DEPICT ALL OF THAT VARIABILITY IN THE GRIDS, BUT HONESTLY,
I WOULDN`T BET MONEY ON ALL OF THOSE DETAILS VERIFYING PERFECTLY.
HAVE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (<1") FOR SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND EVENTUALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS AS THE COLDER AIR FINALLY FILTERS IN AND WE START SEEING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN VERMONT, BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A PARTIALLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 319 AM EST THURSDAY...THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVING TWO ADDITIONAL THREATS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION
AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM BY
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PRESENT A CHALLENGING PERIOD
OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTING AS THE POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
WAFFLING NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TYPICAL NON-DIURNAL TRENDS ETC. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF MODEST CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
POLAR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH BY
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS CLIPPER ENERGY
TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. THUS THE IDEA OF A
SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES, THE POLAR FRONT WILL SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION YET
AGAIN WITH SOME BACKSIDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE SOME
SCT FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SIGNS THAT YET ANOTHER INLAND RUNNER TYPE
OF SYSTEM OF SOUTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WILL PHASE WITH ITS NORTHERN
COUNTERPART AND TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS OR NEARBY
ENVIRONS BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD BRING A HIGHER
THREAT OF MIXED PCPN AND POSSIBLE RAIN TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK AMONG
THIS MORNING`S DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WILL LEAN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OFFERING DECENT CHANCES OF FRONT END LIGHT SNOWS
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS LINGERS
INITIALLY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS ALL SITES MVFR AS
PRECIPITATION FILLS BACK IN THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT KMSS WHERE IFR
WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 00Z RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD REDUCING VSBY TO IFR BEFORE ENDING TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON,
AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KMSS.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 18Z FRI...IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR. SLOWEST TO OCCUR
AT MPV AND SLK.
18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV
AND MSS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1201 AM EST THURSDAY...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT THROUGH 545 AM DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. LATEST RADAR AND GAGE INFORMATION
SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE HALF AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO MUCH
OF VERMONT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. WITH THE GROUND BEING RATHER
DEEPLY FROZEN DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER, MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS
NOT BEING ABSORBED AND IS RUNNING DIRECTLY OFF INTO AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS.
SHARP RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND SOME
MAINSTEM RIVERS. WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
MANY WATERSHEDS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR BANKFULL OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
209 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE RETREATING
TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ERODING THE
WESTERN EDGE. BY THIS EVENING THE STRATUS SHOULD HAVE RETREATED
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ISOLATED FOG NORTH
CENTRAL BUT NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST YET.
ON FRIDAY...THE H500 RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION. WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH GOOD MIXING
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE A BRIEF BUT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS
ROUNDING OUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING A COOLING
TREND. CHANCES OF SNOW ALSO RETURN WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE NAEFS/NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM SHOWS MODEL FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO 850-500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING WITHIN THE 98TH/99TH PERCENTILE WITH RESPECT TO
CLIMATOLOGY. NOT QUITE A MAXIMUM BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE THESE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT AN EVENT THAT IS OUTSIDE THE 1979-
2000 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
AROUND 65 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR CITIES WITH THE RECORD AT
JAMESTOWN OF 60 DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
50F AND 62F. ALBEIT SHY OF RECORDS...THIS WILL STILL NEED SOME
MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IS FORECAST WEST SATURDAY EVENING...AND AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUICK TRANSITION FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BACK TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PUSHES
THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. THIS COULD CHANGE IF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG
TERM MODELS CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN THE GFS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES CHANCES
OF SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ONLY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AFTER SATURDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
TREND COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KDIK. MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IMPACTING KJMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KJMS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 22Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST IS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARDS
OR AT FORECAST LOWS ALREADY...AND WITH INCREASING CLEAR 9-12Z WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT THERE. CLOUDS AND A STEADY
NORTH WIND CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD RESULT IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MINS HOLDING.
KABR REPORTED FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN
AT VALLEY CITY WITH AIR TEMPERATURE AT 27F. ATMOSPHERIC RH PROFILE
WOULD SUPPORT THIS SO WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER MY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
END AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
ONCE AGAIN THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY ADJUSTING POPS BASED
ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVED SOUTHWARD ON A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD LONGITUDE THAN EXPECTED
AND HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH BISMARCK/MANDAN SINCE ABOUT 02 UTC. A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY
RECENT RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 00 UTC NAM...SO WE STILL EXPECT
A QUICK DROP-OFF IN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. OUR FOCUS WAS ON REFINING
POPS FOR THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ND
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN PER 2345 UTC SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT MEANT
DECREASING POPS A BIT OVER WESTERN ND WHERE ASOS/AWOS TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY...AND INCREASING THEM A BIT FOR THE
BATCH OF RELATIVELY-HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE RUGBY
AND TOWNER AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SIMULATIONS DO KEY ON
THAT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TAKE THEM SOUTHWARD TOWARD STEELE
AND JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATION CENTERS MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOME WILL FALL AS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LIMITING ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON.
RATHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM OVERALL SO EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WITH MILD AIR TO THE WEST. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS 30S NORTH CENTRAL TO MID 40S.
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY 20-25...THOUGH STILL A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OUR REGION TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
A THERMAL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY. THE
WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE 40S NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE JAMES VALLEY...50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE WARM AIR ON SATURDAY IS AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COOL START TO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
MONDAY FROM THE TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH 12 UTC AS
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH SCT-BKN PERIODS OF LOW CIGS WEST FOR KISN AND KDIK.
ALL CEILINGS WILL LIFT THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
928 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH NORTHEAST WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR OVER
WEEKEND...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES MADE. THE 00Z NAM IS BACKING OFF
ON MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY FLURRIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT RECENT RAP RUNS...AND THE SREF CONTINUE TO
PRINT OUT JUST A BIT OF QPF. DUE TO THIS KEPT FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY...ENDING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A DECREASE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AND IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL CALM AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. NO PCPN
IS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE PASSING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE.
IT MAY END UP TO BE A DRY SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS PERIOD WITH ONE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL BE REPLACED BY MODESTLY COOLER AIR ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY WILL BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND COMBINE WITH
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. WE EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT GETS IN EARLY MONDAY
TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY. PERHAPS THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...IT
WILL BE WINDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MID LATITUDE WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HEADING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRONG...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE WATCH FOR CONVECTION/THUNDER
WITH THE SYSTEM. LEAVING THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. PACIFIC
SYSTEM BRINGS A MODEST COOL DOWN IN ITS WAKE...AND WILL DEAL WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAKER
SYSTEM FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL IN
ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE OUT THERE...BUT OVERALL A QUIET
TAF PERIOD EXPECTED. GENERALLY LIGHT NW TO WEST WIND TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. 500MB RIPPLE WILL PASS OVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND
HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS. COULD ALSO SEE A FLURRY BUT
NOTHING WORTH CODING INTO THE TAFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1230 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE ONGOING FORECAST
SO LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE MID DAY UPDATE OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN CO`S ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO ALLOW THE SNOW
TO TAPER OFF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL JUST BE
IN AND AROUND THE SNOWBELT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST
OF TODAY STILL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR SO IN THE WEST TO 2
TO 4 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY INTO MIDDAY THE WILL SLOWLY FALL AFTER 2 PM. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AS THE SNOW
GETS DRIER AND MORE POWDERY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT. NOT EXPECTING A BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS THE
INVERSION WILL LOWER AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST. THE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION WILL BE THE WILD CARD...AND THAT
SHOULD WORK EAST INTO NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE. COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT OF
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 4 MORE INCHES INLAND NW PA. A FEW
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SEEDING OF THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WHICH COULD
PROLONG THE EVENT UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP ALOFT BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES... A SURE SIGN OF SPRING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE RATHER
WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
SNOW. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTIONS THE CHANGE OVER WILL BE LATE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NE OHIO/NW PA.
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS JUST A BRIEF
SHOT BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A TIGHTLY PACKED BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL STALL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES AND LARGE CHANCE FOR ERROR. 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
WHICH COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT DAY 7
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL PULL THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. ALL THAT WILL
REMAIN WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT ERIE AS MAIN FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WHERE THEY ARE NOW THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
SO.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO
EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO NEAR 30
KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING...THEN EASTERN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN BY
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX...TAKING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PULLING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ011>014-023-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ003-006-017.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC/GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE ONGOING FORECAST
SO LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE MID DAY UPDATE OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN CO`S ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO ALLOW THE SNOW
TO TAPER OFF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL JUST BE
IN AND AROUND THE SNOWBELT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST
OF TODAY STILL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR SO IN THE WEST TO 2
TO 4 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY INTO MIDDAY THE WILL SLOWLY FALL AFTER 2 PM. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AS THE SNOW
GETS DRIER AND MORE POWDERY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT. NOT EXPECTING A BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS THE
INVERSION WILL LOWER AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST. THE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION WILL BE THE WILD CARD...AND THAT
SHOULD WORK EAST INTO NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE. COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT OF
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 4 MORE INCHES INLAND NW PA. A FEW
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SEEDING OF THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WHICH COULD
PROLONG THE EVENT UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP ALOFT BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES... A SURE SIGN OF SPRING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE RATHER
WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
SNOW. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTIONS THE CHANGE OVER WILL BE LATE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NE OHIO/NW PA.
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS JUST A BRIEF
SHOT BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A TIGHTLY PACKED BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL STALL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES AND LARGE CHANCE FOR ERROR. 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
WHICH COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT DAY 7
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF SNOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING IN NW OHIO BY
AROUND 18Z AND DECREASING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE MORE STEADY SNOW ARRIVES WITH LOW IFR AT
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED AT CLE BETWEEN 16-20Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT ERI WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT CLE/YNG.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY
NE OHIO INTO NW PA. NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO
EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO NEAR 30
KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING...THEN EASTERN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN BY
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX...TAKING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PULLING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ011>014-023-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ003-006-017.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC/GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
906 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE ONGOING FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE
MID MORNING UPDATE. THE SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
JUST BE IN AND AROUND THE SNOWBELT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE
REST OF TODAY STILL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR SO IN THE WEST TO
2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY INTO MIDDAY THE WILL SLOWLY FALL AFTER 2 PM. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AS THE SNOW GETS
DRIER AND MORE POWDERY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT. NOT EXPECTING A BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS THE
INVERSION WILL LOWER AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST. THE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION WILL BE THE WILD CARD...AND THAT
SHOULD WORK EAST INTO NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE. COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT OF
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 4 MORE INCHES INLAND NW PA. A FEW
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SEEDING OF THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WHICH COULD
PROLONG THE EVENT UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP ALOFT BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES... A SURE SIGN OF SPRING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE RATHER
WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
SNOW. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTIONS THE CHANGE OVER WILL BE LATE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NE OHIO/NW PA.
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS JUST A BRIEF
SHOT BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A TIGHTLY PACKED BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL STALL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES AND LARGE CHANCE FOR ERROR. 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
WHICH COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT DAY 7
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF SNOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING IN NW OHIO BY
AROUND 18Z AND DECREASING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE MORE STEADY SNOW ARRIVES WITH LOW IFR AT
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED AT CLE BETWEEN 16-20Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT ERI WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT CLE/YNG.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY
NE OHIO INTO NW PA. NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO
EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO NEAR 30
KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING...THEN EASTERN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN BY
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX...TAKING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PULLING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ011>014-023-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ003-006-017.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
208 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WRAP-AROUND
FLOW BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA. WITH THE FRONT
GONE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT...AND
WE ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
REGIME.
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...SO
HAVE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE COOLS.
INITIALLY ON THIS EVENING SHIFT...THOUGHT THE HRRR WAS COOLING
TOO QUICKLY...SO RELIED MORE ON A CONSENSUS/LAMP BLEND FOR HOURLY
TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS EVENING THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY BEEN A BIT
BETTER TO OUR WEST...WHERE SNOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FALL IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...SO RECONFIGURED HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BY BLENDING IN MORE HRRR. GENERALLY TEMPS ARE SLOW TO
DROP TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL REBOUND THURSDAY. THIS
ALLOWS SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO NEGATE MUCH IF NOT ALL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE
INCOMING RADIATION IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTHWEST...INTO SE OHIO...COULD START TO GET A COATING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD IS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850MB TEMPS COOL TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. HAVE AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING SOME THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
A BIT MORE STABLE...BUT STILL A RATHER BREEZY STRETCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. T850 WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF -10C TO -13C WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE CAN GET. FOR
NOW I WENT A LITTLE BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR FOR LOW TEMPS...FOR IF
WE CAN CLEAR OUT THE TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY AND WEAK
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK UP NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.
CLIPPER ARRIVES SUN EVENING INTO MON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PLACEMENT OF THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE. BRIEF
DRY PERIOD TO FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS...INCLUDING
SOME FROZEN PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS...ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE A 500 MB WAVE CROSSES THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTING A LARGE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID OHIO VALLEY. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...RAPIDLY DEVELOPS A DEEP...SLOWER-MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE PARTICULAR TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 12Z RUN SEEMS SUSPECT...SO WILL
NOT RELY HEAVILY ON THAT SOLUTION UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
YIELDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MORE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO OUR
AREA...SO SKY/POP/WEATHER GRIDS MORE REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.
TEMPS FOLLOW A MIX OF CONSENSUS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND. EXPECT
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE BY THU/DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE EXITING AREA LEAVING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES SHOULD WE
DECOUPLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD OVER AREA AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN
GENERAL HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE UP AND DOWN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IN BACKLASH OF STORM...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN WEST
VIRGINIA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WRAP-AROUND
FLOW BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA. WITH THE FRONT
GONE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT...AND
WE ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
REGIME.
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...SO
HAVE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE COOLS.
INITIALLY ON THIS EVENING SHIFT...THOUGHT THE HRRR WAS COOLING
TOO QUICKLY...SO RELIED MORE ON A CONSENSUS/LAMP BLEND FOR HOURLY
TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS EVENING THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY BEEN A BIT
BETTER TO OUR WEST...WHERE SNOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FALL IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...SO RECONFIGURED HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BY BLENDING IN MORE HRRR. GENERALLY TEMPS ARE SLOW TO
DROP TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL REBOUND THURSDAY. THIS
ALLOWS SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO NEGATE MUCH IF NOT ALL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE
INCOMING RADIATION IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTHWEST...INTO SE OHIO...COULD START TO GET A COATING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD IS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850MB TEMPS COOL TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. HAVE AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING SOME THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
A BIT MORE STABLE...BUT STILL A RATHER BREEZY STRETCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AND THE FOLLOWING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MOIST SHORT WAVE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE COLD ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE COMBINE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEPT SNOW ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN MUCH OF
THE LOW LANDS DUE TO WARMER GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE
CONSIDERATIONS. UP TO A FEW INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST DURING FRIDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEINGS SUNSHINE
SATURDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS WILL
RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS TO AROUND 6
INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND STILL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY DESPITE A MODEST WARMING
TREND WITH SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.
CLIPPER ARRIVES SUN EVENING INTO MON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PLACEMENT OF THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE. BRIEF
DRY PERIOD TO FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS...INCLUDING
SOME FROZEN PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS...ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE A 500 MB WAVE CROSSES THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTING A LARGE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID OHIO VALLEY. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...RAPIDLY DEVELOPS A DEEP...SLOWER-MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE PARTICULAR TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 12Z RUN SEEMS SUSPECT...SO WILL
NOT RELY HEAVILY ON THAT SOLUTION UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
YIELDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MORE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO OUR
AREA...SO SKY/POP/WEATHER GRIDS MORE REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.
TEMPS FOLLOW A MIX OF CONSENSUS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND. EXPECT
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE BY THU/DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE EXITING AREA LEAVING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES SHOULD WE
DECOUPLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD OVER AREA AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN
GENERAL HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE UP AND DOWN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IN BACKLASH OF STORM...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN WEST
VIRGINIA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1132 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THE EXITING WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES A TRAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR WITH SOME TRACE PRECIPITATION SUCH HAS BEEN SHOWING ON ABR
RADAR...A FEW REPORTING POINTS...AND DEPICTED ON THE HRRR RADAR
GRAPHICS. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY VERY FINE
FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS BUT MUST COVER FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN. OF COURSE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE STIFF
SIDE OR THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS IT IS SPIT OUT IN FORECASTS.
CLEARING LATER TODAY SHOULD BE DEFINITE BUT GRADUAL...VERY
GRADUAL EAST AND A BIT FASTER WEST...AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FIRST STOPS THE TRACE PRECIPITATION THEN EATS AWAY AT THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH EAST...A COUPLE DEGREES DIP THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES RISE...WITH WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY.
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD PICK UP STEAM BY THE START OF THE EVENING
AND THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY WELL BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE THOUGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHICH WILL SEE THE COMBO OF LATEST TO CLEAR...AND LATEST TO
SEE THE START OF A WEAK WARMING AND DRYING FLOW WHICH MAY START WEST
AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW AFTER COORDINATION BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOR KSUX MAY BE AN
AVIATION CONSIDERATION LATER
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING SNOW PACK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED
THE UPWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH H925
TEMPERATURES EASILY EXCEEDING 10C.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MIXY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR HIGHWAY 14.
AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR MID WEEK...FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE THAN THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE GEM. THE ECMWF
IS DEEPER WITH A GREATER FOCUS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES GOING MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WITH
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING
PERIODIC FLURRIES WITH THEM. WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS SLIDING EASTWARD...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THE
CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
524 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THE EXITING WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES A TRAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR WITH SOME TRACE PRECIPITATION SUCH HAS BEEN SHOWING ON ABR
RADAR...A FEW REPORTING POINTS...AND DEPICTED ON THE HRRR RADAR
GRAPHICS. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY VERY FINE
FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS BUT MUST COVER FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN. OF COURSE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE STIFF
SIDE OR THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS IT IS SPIT OUT IN FORECASTS.
CLEARING LATER TODAY SHOULD BE DEFINITE BUT GRADUAL...VERY
GRADUAL EAST AND A BIT FASTER WEST...AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FIRST STOPS THE TRACE PRECIPITATION THEN EATS AWAY AT THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH EAST...A COUPLE DEGREES DIP THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES RISE...WITH WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY.
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD PICK UP STEAM BY THE START OF THE EVENING
AND THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY WELL BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE THOUGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHICH WILL SEE THE COMBO OF LATEST TO CLEAR...AND LATEST TO
SEE THE START OF A WEAK WARMING AND DRYING FLOW WHICH MAY START WEST
AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW AFTER COORDINATION BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOR KSUX MAY BE AN
AVIATION CONSIDERATION LATER
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING SNOW PACK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED
THE UPWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH H925
TEMPERATURES EASILY EXCEEDING 10C.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MIXY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR HIGHWAY 14.
AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR MID WEEK...FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE THAN THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE GEM. THE ECMWF
IS DEEPER WITH A GREATER FOCUS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES GOING MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WITH
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THROUGH 16Z CEILINGS 1-3K FT WITH LOCAL -SN/-FZDZ. 16Z-20Z
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AFT 20Z VFR EXCEPT LOCAL VISIBILITIES
3-5SM/BR IN NORTHWEST IA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THE EXITING WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES A TRAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR WITH SOME TRACE PRECIPITATION SUCH HAS BEEN SHOWING ON ABR
RADAR...A FEW REPORTING POINTS...AND DEPICTED ON THE HRRR RADAR
GRAPHICS. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY VERY FINE
FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS BUT MUST COVER FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN. OF COURSE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE STIFF
SIDE OR THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS IT IS SPIT OUT IN FORECASTS.
CLEARING LATER TODAY SHOULD BE DEFINITE BUT GRADUAL...VERY
GRADUAL EAST AND A BIT FASTER WEST...AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FIRST STOPS THE TRACE PRECIPITATION THEN EATS AWAY AT THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH EAST...A COUPLE DEGREES DIP THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES RISE...WITH WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY.
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD PICK UP STEAM BY THE START OF THE EVENING
AND THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY WELL BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE THOUGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHICH WILL SEE THE COMBO OF LATEST TO CLEAR...AND LATEST TO
SEE THE START OF A WEAK WARMING AND DRYING FLOW WHICH MAY START WEST
AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW AFTER COORDINATION BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOR KSUX MAY BE AN
AVIATION CONSIDERATION LATER
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING SNOW PACK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED
THE UPWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH H925
TEMPERATURES EASILY EXCEEDING 10C.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MIXY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR HIGHWAY 14.
AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR MID WEEK...FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE THAN THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE GEM. THE ECMWF
IS DEEPER WITH A GREATER FOCUS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES GOING MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WITH
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
OVER NORTHWEST IA UNTIL 09Z CEILINGS 1-3K FEET AND AREAS VSBYS
3-5SM/-SN. OTHERWISE OVER AREA CEILINGS 3-5K FEET VARIABLE TO
CEILINGS 2-3K FEET...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR BY 18Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THE EXITING WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES A TRAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR WITH SOME TRACE PRECIPITATION SUCH HAS BEEN SHOWING ON ABR
RADAR...A FEW REPORTING POINTS...AND DEPICTED ON THE HRRR RADAR
GRAPHICS. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY VERY FINE
FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS BUT MUST COVER FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN. OF COURSE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE STIFF
SIDE OR THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS IT IS SPIT OUT IN FORECASTS.
CLEARING LATER TODAY SHOULD BE DEFINITE BUT GRADUAL...VERY
GRADUAL EAST AND A BIT FASTER WEST...AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FIRST STOPS THE TRACE PRECIPITATION THEN EATS AWAY AT THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH EAST...A COUPLE DEGREES DIP THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES RISE...WITH WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY.
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD PICK UP STEAM BY THE START OF THE EVENING
AND THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY WELL BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE THOUGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHICH WILL SEE THE COMBO OF LATEST TO CLEAR...AND LATEST TO
SEE THE START OF A WEAK WARMING AND DRYING FLOW WHICH MAY START WEST
AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW AFTER COORDINATION BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOR KSUX MAY BE AN
AVIATION CONSIDERATION LATER
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING SNOW PACK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED
THE UPWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH H925
TEMPERATURES EASILY EXCEEDING 10C.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MIXY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR HIGHWAY 14.
AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR MID WEEK...FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE THAN THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE GEM. THE ECMWF
IS DEEPER WITH A GREATER FOCUS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES GOING MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WITH
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
OVER NORTHWEST IA UNTIL 09Z CEILINGS 1-3K FEET AND AREAS VSBYS
3-5SM/-SN. OTHERWISE OVER AREA CEILINGS 3-5K FEET VARIABLE TO
CEILINGS 2-3K FEET...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR BY 18Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST INTO SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE NORTH BAY
SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS
FAR SOUTH AS OAKLAND. MOSTLY JUST TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP HAVE
BEEN REPORTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
DID OCCUR AT BODEGA BAY AND POINT REYES ON THE NORTH BAY COAST.
IT`S UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR AND GFS MODELS INDICATE NO
MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS
NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH IN THE NORTH BAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND
RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY...DRY AND MILD DAY. THE SAME CAN BE SAID
FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION. ON MONDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S IN MOST AREAS.
AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY...THE MODELS AGREED THAT DRY WEATHER
WOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...TUESDAY WAS EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE RIDGE MOVING
WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF OFFERS THE WETTEST SOLUTION...WITH LIGHT
RAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA. THE 00Z GFS HAS
TRENDED A BIT WETTER...AND CLIPS THE NORTH BAY WITH RAIN LATE
TUESDAY. BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN
THE NORTH BY LATE TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN MOST
AREAS AS WELL.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY TRENDING IN AN ENCOURAGING
DIRECTION...ALL SHOWING A CHANGE TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. A SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA SOMEWHERE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM THEN
FORECAST TO ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY MARCH 6.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:58 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
CIGS/VSBYS FORECASTS HINGE ON WEAK COLD FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. INLAND CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH AREAS IFR CIGS REPORTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
06Z TAFS ARE MOSTLY PERSISTENCE IN THE NEAREST TERM HOWEVER LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST GOING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TIME-FRAME DUE TO INCREASED DEWPOINT TEMPS /WATER VAPOR/
NEAR SURFACE WHILE LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE REMAINED ON THE
WEAK SIDE. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL REMAIN A FACTOR
OVERNIGHT... QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MORE COVERAGE WILL THERE BE?
THE 00Z NAM MODEL FORECASTS DRYING AT THE 925 MB LEVEL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR DRYING OVERLAPPING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CONTINUED MAINLY WEAK LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SATURDAY THUS MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR TO VFR FORECAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...AREAS IFR CIGS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE
REGARDING CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR
LIKELY RETURNING BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 9:40 PM PST FRIDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY. ENERGETIC SWELL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AT DEEP WATER BREAKS AND ASSOCIATED STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WAVES WASHING UNSUSPECTING BEACH VISITORS INTO THE
SEA.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:43 PM PST FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A MODERATE SWELL WITH A LONG
PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST INTO SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEREAFTER...LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE NORTH BAY
SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS
FAR SOUTH AS OAKLAND. MOSTLY JUST TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP HAVE
BEEN REPORTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
DID OCCUR AT BODEGA BAY AND POINT REYES ON THE NORTH BAY COAST.
IT`S UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR AND GFS MODELS INDICATE NO
MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS
NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH IN THE NORTH BAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND
RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY...DRY AND MILD DAY. THE SAME CAN BE SAID
FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INLAND WELL TO OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION. ON MONDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S IN MOST AREAS.
AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY...THE MODELS AGREED THAT DRY WEATHER
WOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...TUESDAY WAS EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA NOW SHOW THE RIDGE MOVING
WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF OFFERS THE WETTEST SOLUTION...WITH LIGHT
RAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA. THE 00Z GFS HAS
TRENDED A BIT WETTER...AND CLIPS THE NORTH BAY WITH RAIN LATE
TUESDAY. BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN
THE NORTH BY LATE TUESDAY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN MOST
AREAS AS WELL.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY TRENDING IN AN ENCOURAGING
DIRECTION...ALL SHOWING A CHANGE TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. A SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA SOMEWHERE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM THEN
FORECAST TO ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY MARCH 6.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:35 PM PST FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST DURING PERIOD. MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 9:26 AM PST FRIDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. THE MUCH ADVERTISED LONG PERIOD FORERUNNER...WITH
PERIODS 21 TO 22 SECONDS...ARE NOW SHOWING UP ON THE BUOYS. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET AT 20 TO 22 SECONDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WASHING FISHERMEN
FROM JETTIES. THIS ENERGETIC SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO
13 FEET AT 17 TO 19 SECONDS TONIGHT. THESE SEA CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY PRODUCING LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AT DEEP WATER BREAKS AND ASSOCIATED STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES WASHING UNSUSPECTING BEACH
VISITORS INTO THE SEA.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST FRIDAY...A MODERATE SWELL WITH A LONG
PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEST AND
NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LONG PERIODS AND BUILDING SWELL WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR HARBOR
ENTRANCES...JETTIES AND NEARSHORE SAND BARS. SEAS WILL EASE A BIT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA/MM
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1132 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Northwest flow aloft continues over central IL as a large scale
low pressure trough dominates the eastern U.S. and a high pressure
ridge dominates the west. At the surface, high pressure has
slipped east of the area which is causing winds to shift to
southwesterly. Skies have cleared across the area except for near
the IN state line, and nothing more than a period of thin high
clouds expected overnight. Temperatures already down to the upper
20s and low 30s this evening, but these will struggle to fall much
more as low level warm advection initiates and a light southerly
wind continues. Expect lows mainly mid to upper 20s overnight.
Have updated for slightly cooler lows tonight, otherwise forecasts
in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Earlier clearing over the southeast half of the CWA has filled in
since late morning. However, back edge of the low cloud shield has
moved into west central Illinois this afternoon. Latest RAP guidance
suggests most of this should be out of the CWA by mid evening, with
a period of clear skies. However, an area of cirrus will move
through after midnight, associated with the upper wave currently
seen on water vapor imagery from the west tip of Lake Superior into
western Kansas. This will result in partly cloudy conditions as the
wave zips through overnight. Will need to watch for some fog
potential over east central Illinois, as there were 1-3 inches of
snow on the ground there this morning and some melting has taken
place. However, winds will be picking up after midnight, which may
help mitigate the threat. Currently, only the SREF is indicating any
visibility restrictions overnight. Will leave out mention for now
and continue to monitor.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Any patchy early morning fog in east-central Illinois early
Saturday morning should quickly dissipate as southwest winds crank
up into the 15 to 25 mph range. The gusty winds and ample sunshine
will go a long way toward melting any remaining snow pack in our
counties as well, with high temps expected to reach in the 50s
across the board.
The upper level ridge responsible for the warming trend will begin
to shift east of Illinois on Sunday, as the next in a series of low
pressure systems approaches the Great Lakes region. Despite
increasing afternoon clouds and slight chances of rain north of
Springfield to Mattoon on Sunday, strong south to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will provide our warmest day of the next week. Highs
will climb into the low to mid 60s. Thunder potential appears to
have lowered with the latest model suite, so no mention of thunder
was included ahead of the cold front later Sunday afternoon. Slight
chances of rain will linger into Sunday evening east of I-57, with
dry conditions after midnight when the cold front departs well to
the east.
A brief push of cooler air will arrive for Monday, but plenty of
sunshine will help high temps recover into the 50s, which are still
well above normal.
The extended models once again have come in with widely varying
solutions. The ECMWF is the only model to develop a deep 990mb low
passing across Illinois roughly along I-72 on Tuesday. It indicates
enough cold air N-NW of the low for several inches of snow W of I-55
Tue afternoon, with rain changing to snow east of I-55 into the
evening. A few thunderstorms would even be possible south of I-72 on
Tuesday. The GFS has a weak and more elongated surface low develop
and pass by to the south of Illinois on Tuesday, with precip mainly
south of I-72, and mainly rain until colder air arrives Tuesday
evening and changes rain to snow as precip ends. The Canadian GEM
has more of an open wave and surface trough pass across Illinois on
Tuesday, with precip starting briefly as rain early Tuesday then
changing to snow, with light accums possible. With such large swings
in each models solutions from cycle to cycle, along with differences
between the models, only minor changes were made to the forecast
from late Monday night through Tues night. The blended
initialization shifted the Likely PoPs on Tuesday to areas southeast
of Decatur, with high chance PoPs elsewhere in central Illinois.
The actual PoP numbers were relatively close to the previous
forecast in general. Precip type scenarios were tied to a warm surge
on Tuesday, then rain changing to snow from W to E Tues night, as
colder air arrives behind the low/surface trough. Changes to this
scenario are likely over the next couple of days before models start
to converge on a solution.
A break in the precip chances is expected for Wednesday as weak high
pressure passes across IL. However, another upper level shortwave
and surface trough are projected to pass over Illinois on Thursday.
There will be higher chances of rain or snow southeast of the
Illinois river, closer to the track of the upper vort max and jet
dynamics.
High temps will dip back below normal from Wednesday to Friday as
the waves bring brief shots of cooler air to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
VFR conditions expected for much of the next 24 hours for central
IL. Some visibility reductions due to fog are possible in early
morning at KDEC-KBMI-KCMI where there is snow cover, however
soundings not favorable for development, and steady south winds
should tend to mitigate. Temporary MVFR visibility is the worst
visibility likely. Winds S-SW 4-8 kts overnight, increasing to
12-15 kts by late morning. Gusts to around 20 kts likely during
afternoon. Winds at 2000 feet AGL expected to reach near 40 kts
toward 06Z Sunday and may result in low level wind shear
conditions, however wind shear values appear too marginal for
inclusion in 06Z TAFs this evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
349 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM
WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING ON IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S. SFC
WINDS OUT OF THE SSW WILL LEAD TO GORGEOUS WEATHER THIS SATURDAY
AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES. HOW
WARM WILL WE GET TODAY AND STAY TONIGHT ARE THE QUESTIONS. THE
AMERICAN MODELS AND THE GEM OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO COLD
FOR TODAYS HIGHS. MOS GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE HIGHS TODAY WITH 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 70
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. I DO NOT BUY THAT.
TONIGHT....WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AS AN H85 JET ROTATES
INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MAY ACTUALLY
BE TOO LOW. THINKING THAT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT...LOWS
IN THE 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SW ZONES. ONE THING IS SURE ABOUT
TODAYS FORECAST...IT WILL DEFINITELY START TO FEEL LIKE SPRING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
DRYING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MAIN
VORTICITY ADVECTION PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH INVERTED-V DRY SUB-CLOUD PROFILE. AS RESULT... HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES WITH ANYTHING ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES AT BEST. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT... TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL INTO THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S NEAR TO
SOUTH OF I-80 WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ASSISTANCE OF MILD LAUNCHING
POINT (40S TO NEAR 50 TO START OFF THE DAY). HIGHS MAY STILL BE A
SKOOSH CONSERVATIVE AND NEEDING TO BE RAISED 1-3 DEGS MANY
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP
MIXING WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY... NEXT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS. GFS IS THE FASTER OUTLIER WITH FRONT
NEARLY BISECTING CWA FROM SW TO NE AT MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLOWER WITH FRONT SAGGING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND WITH
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER CONSENSUS.
AS A RESULT... HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-3 DEGS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGS
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER... IF TRENDS PERSIST THEN LIKELY NEED TO RAISE THE HIGHS
ANOTHER 1-3 DEGS FOR GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
DRY AIRMASS... WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF COHERENT FORCING YIELDS DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE WITH STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH
ECMWF STILL SUGGESTING A DEEPENING LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE
TAKING ON MORE NEGATIVE TILT. MEANWHILE... GEM/UK/GFS/NAM LATEST RUNS SUPPORT
MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES AND KEYS WITH WHERE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES LIE IS IN THE STRENGTH OF INCOMING SURFACE CANADIAN RIDGE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND COLD AIR WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH
SHARPENING OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OCCURS... IF AT ALL... WHICH WILL IMPACT
STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. THUS FOR NOW CONTINUE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PLACEMENT...TIMING...TRACK OF SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
AS RESULT... HAVE CONTINUED WITH GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MENTION AND CAPPED POPS IN
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY CENTERED ON THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WHERE THE SIGNAL
IS GREATEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SHOWN BY GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
SIMILAR CHALLENGES SHOW UP WITH STRENGTH OF INCOMING HIGH AND COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH LIKELY IMPACTING TRACK/STRENGTH AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
SIMILARLY HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR NOW.
TEMPS WHILE COOLER MID TO LATE WEEK GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH... TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY STORM TRACK AND
EASILY FLUCTUATE WARMER OR COLDER DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
VERY QUIET VFR CLEAR WEATHER WILL LAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABOVE 12000 FT...BUT MOST HOURS WILL BE CLEAR WITH UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER AIR ALOFT EVAPORATES CLOUDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z RAP HAS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX AXIS FROM NEAR DAY TO SW OF LEX
...WITH ANOTHER 500 MB VORT NEAR DTW MI. FIRST AXIS PASSES OUR MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z WITH THE SECONDARY ONE PASSING AROUND 16Z. WILL STILL LEAVE
SOME FLURRIES THIS PREDAWN ACROSS NORTHERN WV LOWLANDS INTO THE MID
MORNING FOR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CEILING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARMING ALOFT AT 850 MBS. HAVE BACK/WESTERN EDGE MOVING EAST AROUND
15 KNOTS. HAVE CLEARING INTO SE OHIO AND NE KY AROUND 14/15Z...THEN
CONTINUING EAST. A CLEAR SKY FORESEEN FOR TONIGHT.
925 MB FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WITH 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE
OHIO. SO HAVE HILLTOPS MILDER THAN SHELTERED VALLEYS TONIGHT. TRIED TO
KEEP THE SNOW COVERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH WARMER SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING -SHRA BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL
BE TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR...AND
A GENERAL CLEARING TREND OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER SYSTEM...THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ABOUT MID WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST...ALTHOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TRANSITIONING TO -
SHSN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF MOISTURE MAY
HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAKER SYSTEM FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM CROSSES WV ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS AT 3 TO 4
THSD FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES. HAVE
CEILING LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR DAWN...THEN LIFTING AGAIN BY 15Z.
A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE 08Z TO 14Z IN WEST VIRGINIA.
CEILINGS DISSIPATES AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED WEST TO EAST 13Z TO
19Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY LINGER A HOUR OR 2 LONGER THAN
FORECAST IN WEST VIRGINIA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 02/27/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1234 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER AIR ALOFT EVAPORATES CLOUDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES MADE. THE 00Z NAM IS BACKING OFF
ON MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY FLURRIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT RECENT RAP RUNS...AND THE SREF CONTINUE TO
PRINT OUT JUST A BIT OF QPF. DUE TO THIS KEPT FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY...ENDING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A DECREASE IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AND IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL CALM AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. NO PCPN
IS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE PASSING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE.
IT MAY END UP TO BE A DRY SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS PERIOD WITH ONE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL BE REPLACED BY MODESTLY COOLER AIR ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY WILL BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND COMBINE WITH
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. WE EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT GETS IN EARLY MONDAY
TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY. PERHAPS THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...IT
WILL BE WINDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MID LATITUDE WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HEADING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRONG...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE WATCH FOR CONVECTION/THUNDER
WITH THE SYSTEM. LEAVING THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. PACIFIC
SYSTEM BRINGS A MODEST COOL DOWN IN ITS WAKE...AND WILL DEAL WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAKER
SYSTEM FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL IN
ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM CROSSES WV ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS AT 3 TO 4
THSD FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES. HAVE
CEILING LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR DAWN...THEN LIFTING AGAIN BY 15Z.
A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE 08Z TO 14Z IN WEST VIRGINIA.
CEILINGS DISSIPATES AS CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED WEST TO EAST 13Z TO
19Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY LINGER A HOUR OR 2 LONGER THAN
FORECAST IN WEST VIRGINIA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 02/27/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NWS SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW WITH SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING FOR
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN WA. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK AS A
WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
RAIN WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES. THE COAST WILL SEE RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN
SPREADING TO THE INTERIOR BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 2500 FT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
PASSES. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER ON MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
AND THE FLOW FLIPS TO OFFSHORE. 33
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ON
MON NGT...AND AN ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUE.
IT WILL BEHAVE TYPICALLY AS IT WILL BE PRECEDED BY WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP AND E/SE GRADIENTS...THEN FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATER TUE WITH A PICKUP IN SW GRADIENTS...WIND...AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS. HIGH PRES REBOUNDS QUICKLY ON WED...WITH SOME DRY WEATHER
LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING IS THE MAIN REASON FOR KEEPING A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WED FORECAST...BUT SOME DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
AROUND THAT TIME.
MODELS THEN AGREE AT DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT AROUND
150W FROM THU INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. THIS SHOULD DIRECT
AN ACTIVE AND SOMETIMES STORMY SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PAC
NW...WITH RAIN STARTING THU AND CONTINUING INTO FRI AND BEYOND.
HANER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SEDIMENTATION IN THE WHITE RIVER HAS REDUCED THE
RIVER`S ABILITY TO CARRY MODERATE FLOWS OF WATER WITHOUT CAUSING
FLOODING PROBLEMS NEAR PACIFIC. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD IMPACTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT...BUT THE RIVER IS NEAR THE LEVEL
WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.
ELSEWHERE...NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH. A SLOW MOVING WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. CIGS
CURRENTLY VFR TO MVFR...WITH MVFR MORE LIKELY IN RAIN. CIGS EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
KSEA...CURRENT VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN AROUND 2K FT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AM BEFORE
CLIMBING BACK TO VFR. RAIN REMAINING IN FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID-MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT.
SMR
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WESTERLY SWELL
AROUND 10 FEET CONTINUE IN COASTAL WATERS...THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE COAST AND AT
THE WEST ENTRANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE EAST
ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH GALES POSSIBLE WILL ARRIVE AROUND
TUESDAY. CHB/SMR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF PACIFIC IN
PIERCE COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.
GALE WATCH COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
956 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Our weather pattern will become breezy at times over the weekend
with chances for rain in the lowlands and accumulating snow in the
mountains. Several fast moving weather systems will move through
the Pacific Northwest next week bringing chances for precipitation
and periods of breezy winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Infrared satellite shows an unorganized upper
trough moving into the region. For tonight the latest 00z runs of
the GFS and NAM as well as the HRRR show the bulk of the rain
falling over the palouse, Lewiston area, Blue Mountains, and Camas
Prairie. This is due to a vort max near the central Oregon coast
that will track into SE Washington overnight. Models are showing
around a tenth to a quarter inch of rain in this area. The
Cascade crest will also see rain and high mountain snow tonight as
moist upslope flow occurs. Elsewhere, weak forcing and a continue
increase in moisture will lead to a chance of light rain. Rain and
high mountain snow will increase over the Idaho Panhandle early
Saturday when the trough axis swings inland and upslope flow
increases. The forecast has been updated to adjust precipitation
chances tonight based on above reasoning. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...A weather disturbance passing through SE Washington
tonight will bring -RA to KPUW/KLWS/KCOE with KGEG/KSFF expected
to be on the northern fringes. This rain will moisten the boundary
layer with S-SW winds expected to advect in stratus into
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE TAF sites. KPUW will also see lowering CIGS due to
more persistent rain as well as upslope winds. A mix of MVFR and
IFR CIGS are expected. Winds will pick up Saturday afternoon with
downslope flow off the Cascades bringing drying to the boundary
layer result in rising CIGS over Eastern Washington and north
Idaho. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 52 35 48 33 46 / 50 40 0 70 60 10
Coeur d`Alene 39 50 35 48 34 46 / 60 80 10 70 70 30
Pullman 42 52 34 49 35 47 / 70 70 10 50 60 20
Lewiston 46 57 39 54 38 52 / 80 50 0 50 60 20
Colville 37 53 33 46 32 46 / 30 30 10 70 60 20
Sandpoint 37 47 34 45 33 43 / 50 80 10 70 70 30
Kellogg 36 44 33 43 32 40 / 60 100 20 50 80 60
Moses Lake 40 58 36 53 34 52 / 30 10 0 50 20 10
Wenatchee 38 56 37 48 32 48 / 40 10 10 50 20 10
Omak 36 53 33 44 30 44 / 30 10 10 60 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM
WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING ON IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S. SFC
WINDS OUT OF THE SSW WILL LEAD TO GORGEOUS WEATHER THIS SATURDAY
AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES. HOW
WARM WILL WE GET TODAY AND STAY TONIGHT ARE THE QUESTIONS. THE
AMERICAN MODELS AND THE GEM OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO COLD
FOR TODAYS HIGHS. MOS GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE HIGHS TODAY WITH 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 70
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. I DO NOT BUY THAT.
TONIGHT....WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AS AN H85 JET ROTATES
INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MAY ACTUALLY
BE TOO LOW. THINKING THAT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT...LOWS
IN THE 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SW ZONES. ONE THING IS SURE ABOUT
TODAYS FORECAST...IT WILL DEFINITELY START TO FEEL LIKE SPRING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
DRYING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MAIN
VORTICITY ADVECTION PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH INVERTED-V DRY SUB-CLOUD PROFILE. AS RESULT... HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES WITH ANYTHING ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES AT BEST. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT... TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL INTO THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S NEAR TO
SOUTH OF I-80 WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ASSISTANCE OF MILD LAUNCHING
POINT (40S TO NEAR 50 TO START OFF THE DAY). HIGHS MAY STILL BE A
SKOOSH CONSERVATIVE AND NEEDING TO BE RAISED 1-3 DEGS MANY
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP
MIXING WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY... NEXT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS. GFS IS THE FASTER OUTLIER WITH FRONT
NEARLY BISECTING CWA FROM SW TO NE AT MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLOWER WITH FRONT SAGGING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND WITH
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER CONSENSUS.
AS A RESULT... HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-3 DEGS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGS
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER... IF TRENDS PERSIST THEN LIKELY NEED TO RAISE THE HIGHS
ANOTHER 1-3 DEGS FOR GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
DRY AIRMASS... WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF COHERENT FORCING YIELDS DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE WITH STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH
ECMWF STILL SUGGESTING A DEEPENING LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE
TAKING ON MORE NEGATIVE TILT. MEANWHILE... GEM/UK/GFS/NAM LATEST RUNS SUPPORT
MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES AND KEYS WITH WHERE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES LIE IS IN THE STRENGTH OF INCOMING SURFACE CANADIAN RIDGE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND COLD AIR WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH
SHARPENING OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OCCURS... IF AT ALL... WHICH WILL IMPACT
STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. THUS FOR NOW CONTINUE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PLACEMENT...TIMING...TRACK OF SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
AS RESULT... HAVE CONTINUED WITH GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MENTION AND CAPPED POPS IN
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY CENTERED ON THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WHERE THE SIGNAL
IS GREATEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SHOWN BY GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
SIMILAR CHALLENGES SHOW UP WITH STRENGTH OF INCOMING HIGH AND COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH LIKELY IMPACTING TRACK/STRENGTH AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
SIMILARLY HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR NOW.
TEMPS WHILE COOLER MID TO LATE WEEK GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH... TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY STORM TRACK AND
EASILY FLUCTUATE WARMER OR COLDER DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE THE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY. WINDS COULD STAY UP TONIGHT AS WELL
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
538 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
On the large scale...water vapor showing a building ridge of high
pressure across the Central Rockies this morning which is occurring
ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough now digging into the Great
Basin. This ridge will continue to move downstream over the Plains
and Lower Missouri Valley today...which will result in afternoon
highs anywhere between 15-20 degrees below normal. 00z upstream
observed soundings showing a very dry atmosphere in place across the
Northern and Central Plains...with fcst soundings suggesting dry
adiabatic lapse rates and decent mixing potential this afternoon.
Winds of 15-20 mph with stronger gusts will combine with low
relative humidity values to result in an enhanced fire weather
threat this afternoon...and additional details are provided in the
fire weather section below. Otherwise...expect mostly sunny skies
with daytime highs climbing into the middle to upper 60s across much
of the area...with a few low 70s possible across far eastern Kansas
and far western Missouri.
Dry conditions tonight will give way to increasing cloud cover
towards morning as aforementioned shortwave sends a cold front south
towards our area early Sunday morning. This feature will pass with
little impact through the day as any precip remains well to our
north. Temps will be cooler (generally in the low to mid 60s) as
cold air advection gets underway by early afternoon across much of
the area.
High pressure to quickly build in Sunday night and early Monday which
should provide a dry start to the work week. Meanwhile attention will
quickly be drawn to our west as long-advertised storm system begins
to take shape as northern stream energy quickly dives southeast from
the Canadian and Northern Rockies. As was stated yesterday...models
have been struggling with the degree of impacts across our area as
phasing disagreements continue to result in a multitude of different
storm tracks for the main sfc low. The GFS...the furthest northward
solution last night...is now the farthest south...with the main sfc
low fcst to track from the Red River Vly east along the MO/AR state
line. Meanwhile the ECMWF...and to a lesser extent the
Canadian...take the sfc low on a much further northward
track...mainly along and north of I-70. Irregardless of which
solution verifies...latest trends suggest only minor impacts across
our area as precip largely stays in the form of rain until early
Tuesday morning when enough cold air sinks south temporarily to
allow a rain/snow mix before diurnal warming changes any wintry
precip back to rain.
Beyond this...dry wx to return by Tuesday night with this trend
continuing through the day on Wednesday as high pressure temporarily
slides into the region. Fcst models show the next weak storm system
impacting the area early Thursday as the next fast clipper-type
system moves across the area. Dry wx will then return for the
remainder of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. The main concern
will be increasing southwesterly winds with sustained speeds of
15-20 kts likely this afternoon...with gusts as high as 25-30 kts
possible. Speeds will remain elevated through the overnight period as
a strong low-level jet moves overhead. Otherwise...a very dry
atmosphere will lead to little of any cloud coverage through the fcst
cycle.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Fire weather concerns will be on the rise this afternoon as low
relative humidity combines with dry surface fuels and modest
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph. Winds should begin to pick up
later today with gusts reaching as high as 25-30 mph during peak
heating. BUFKIT soundings reveal plenty of varying solutions on the
efficiency of atmospheric mixing later this afternoon. Soundings from
the NAM suggest shallow mixing only occurring up to roughly
925-mb...while the RAP maintains the suggestion of ample mixing
occurring past 850-mb. Under this scenario...stronger winds (850
winds of roughly 40 kts expected today) would have little difficulty
mixing to the surface thanks to favorable low-level lapse rates. The
GFS is slightly higher with its mixing depth as compared to the
NAM...but not nearly as efficient as what the RAP is advertising.
Based on this along with numerous model wind field solutions that
suggest 20-foot winds will remain in the 15-20 mph range this
afternoon...have elected to hold off on upgrading the inherited SPS
to a Red Flag Warning (RFW) this morning. Will allow dayshift the
opportunity to monitor trends with the assumption that a quick-
hitting RFW could be issued if needed. Winds will remain elevated
overnight...however increasing RH values will result in improving
fire weather concerns through the evening and overnight hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
On the large scale...water vapor showing a building ridge of high
pressure across the Central Rockies this morning which is occurring
ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough now digging into the Great
Basin. This ridge will continue to move downstream over the Plains
and Lower Missouri Valley today...which will result in afternoon
highs anywhere between 15-20 degrees below normal. 00z upstream
observed soundings showing a very dry atmosphere in place across the
Northern and Central Plains...with fcst soundings suggesting dry
adiabatic lapse rates and decent mixing potential this afternoon.
Winds of 15-20 mph with stronger gusts will combine with low
relative humidity values to result in an enhanced fire weather
threat this afternoon...and additional details are provided in the
fire weather section below. Otherwise...expect mostly sunny skies
with daytime highs climbing into the middle to upper 60s across much
of the area...with a few low 70s possible across far eastern Kansas
and far western Missouri.
Dry conditions tonight will give way to increasing cloud cover
towards morning as aforementioned shortwave sends a cold front south
towards our area early Sunday morning. This feature will pass with
little impact through the day as any precip remains well to our
north. Temps will be cooler (generally in the low to mid 60s) as
cold air advection gets underway by early afternoon across much of
the area.
High pressure to quickly build in Sunday night and early Monday which
should provide a dry start to the work week. Meanwhile attention will
quickly be drawn to our west as long-advertised storm system begins
to take shape as northern stream energy quickly dives southeast from
the Canadian and Northern Rockies. As was stated yesterday...models
have been struggling with the degree of impacts across our area as
phasing disagreements continue to result in a multitude of different
storm tracks for the main sfc low. The GFS...the furthest northward
solution last night...is now the farthest south...with the main sfc
low fcst to track from the Red River Vly east along the MO/AR state
line. Meanwhile the ECMWF...and to a lesser extent the
Canadian...take the sfc low on a much further northward
track...mainly along and north of I-70. Irregardless of which
solution verifies...latest trends suggest only minor impacts across
our area as precip largely stays in the form of rain until early
Tuesday morning when enough cold air sinks south temporarily to
allow a rain/snow mix before diurnal warming changes any wintry
precip back to rain.
Beyond this...dry wx to return by Tuesday night with this trend
continuing through the day on Wednesday as high pressure temporarily
slides into the region. Fcst models show the next weak storm system
impacting the area early Thursday as the next fast clipper-type
system moves across the area. Dry wx will then return for the
remainder of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
VFR conditions through the forecast period with few if any clouds.
Main concern will continue to be with the winds. Light winds through
the morning hours. Winds will definitely pick up and become gusty
during the afternoon hours. While there may be a slight decrease in
the winds for a few hours around sunset, likely most noticeable in
the gusts, a strengthening low-level jet will lead to even stronger
winds during the evening hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Fire weather concerns will be on the rise this afternoon as low
relative humidity combines with dry surface fuels and modest
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph. Winds should begin to pick up
later today with gusts reaching as high as 25-30 mph during peak
heating. BUFKIT soundings reveal plenty of varying solutions on the
efficiency of atmospheric mixing later this afternoon. Soundings from
the NAM suggest shallow mixing only occurring up to roughly
925-mb...while the RAP maintains the suggestion of ample mixing
occurring past 850-mb. Under this scenario...stronger winds (850
winds of roughly 40 kts expected today) would have little difficulty
mixing to the surface thanks to favorable low-level lapse rates. The
GFS is slightly higher with its mixing depth as compared to the
NAM...but not nearly as efficient as what the RAP is advertising.
Based on this along with numerous model wind field solutions that
suggest 20-foot winds will remain in the 15-20 mph range this
afternoon...have elected to hold off on upgrading the inherited SPS
to a Red Flag Warning (RFW) this morning. Will allow dayshift the
opportunity to monitor trends with the assumption that a quick-
hitting RFW could be issued if needed. Winds will remain elevated
overnight...however increasing RH values will result in improving
fire weather concerns through the evening and overnight hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
243 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TODAY..THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE PUSHING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA. SOME PLACES WILL
SEE NO MORE THAN A TRACE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT BRIEF NORTHWEST FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD AND
DRY. MONDAY THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SILVER STATE. TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY WIL BE DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST IR IMAGE HAS A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN ZONES OF THE LKN
CWA..WITH A SMATTERING OF CIRRUS UPWIND.THE NESDIS OPERATIONAL
BLENDED TPW...CLEARLY SHOWS A FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NEVADA...BUT ITS NOT REALLY IMPRESSIVE
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO SOME OF THE PREVIOUS STORMS FROM THE
2015-2016 WINTER. THE PWS FROM THE LATEST LKN SOUNDING IS .26 OF
AN INCH...WHICH ALMOST SOUNDS PROMISING UNTIL YOU FACTOR IN THAT
THE GFS IS CONSISTENTLY DRIER AND DRIER EACH RUN. THE HRRR PINGS
INTO SHOWERS OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY BUT IS PRETTY SPARTAN WITH THE
QPF OVER ELKO COUNTY. BACKED OFF ON THE POPS THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...BECAUSE THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND THE MODELS ARE COMING
IN DRIER AND DRIER. BEST BET FOR QPF BEYOND A TRACE WILL BE
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 50S. AT THE WMC AIRPORT WENT FOR A
HIGH OF 64F...WHICH IS BELOW THE ALL TIME HIGH OF 74F FOR THAT
DATE WHICH WAS SET IN 1986. FOR ELKO...WENT FOR A HIGH OF 54F
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE MEAN MAX TEMP OF 46F FOR FEB 28TH. MONDAY
THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA...SPITTING OUT TRACES OF RAIN ALONG I-80 AND OTHER PLACES
IN NORTHERN NV.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. LITTLE COMPLICATED
PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL TAKE A
GENERAL COMPROMISE. RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THIS GIANT CLOSED MONSTER LOW SITS OFFSHORE...EJECTING
WEAK SHORT WAVES AROUND THE BASE AT FIRST...WHICH TEND TO DEPRESS
THE RIDGE AND KEEP LOW POPS IN NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS...THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE COAST AND FILLS IN A BIT
(STARTS OFF THE LONG TERM WITH A H5 CENTER OF 493 DM) AND OTHER
TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOWS DUMBBELL AROUND THE BLACK HOLE AND
EJECT TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND INLAND. ALTHOUGH WEAKER AS THEY
MAKE IN OVER THE SIERRA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE IS A HINT OF
SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF STRONG JET
STREAK POINTED DIRECTLY AT CENTRAL NEVADA. THE ACTUAL DIVERGENCE
FIELDS ARE WEAK TO "LOW/MODERATE" AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE YET, SO HAVE KEPT POPS LOW, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD.
WINDS MAY INCREASE MID WEEK TO LATE WEEK WITH APPROACH OF JET
STREAK.
COUPLE THINGS TO WATCH FOR: WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. JUST FYI. COLDER AIR WITH
BUCKLING OF RIDGE WILL ALSO ENABLE SHOWERS TO TURN TO LOW ELEVATION
SNOWS. IT IS STILL WINTER...
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MAY DRIVE WINDS TO NORTHWEST
OR WEST AND GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
HIGH CIGS AND MID CLOUDS AT KTPH AND KELY...AND MID LEVEL CIGS AT
KWMC AND KEKO...WITH SOME VCSH AT KWMC AND KEKO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CIGS TO RISE. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/98/98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
502 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER AIR ALOFT EVAPORATES CLOUDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z RAP HAS THE WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX AXIS FROM NEAR DAY TO SW OF LEX
WITH ANOTHER 500 MB VORT NEAR DTW MI. FIRST AXIS PASSES OUR MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z WITH THE SECONDARY ONE PASSING AROUND 16Z. WILL STILL LEAVE
SOME FLURRIES THIS PREDAWN ACROSS NORTHERN WV LOWLANDS INTO THE MID
MORNING FOR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CEILING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARMING ALOFT AT 850 MBS. HAVE BACK/WESTERN EDGE MOVING EAST AROUND
15 KNOTS. HAVE CLEARING INTO SE OHIO AND NE KY AROUND 14/15Z...THEN
CONTINUING EAST. A CLEAR SKY FORESEEN FOR TONIGHT.
925 MB FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WITH 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE
OHIO. SO HAVE HILLTOPS MILDER THAN SHELTERED VALLEYS TONIGHT. TRIED TO
KEEP THE SNOW COVERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH WARMER SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING -SHRA BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL
BE TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR...AND
A GENERAL CLEARING TREND OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER SYSTEM...THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ABOUT MID WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET FOR
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST...ALTHOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW...AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TRANSITIONING TO -
SHSN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF MOISTURE MAY
HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF WEAKER SYSTEM FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARING NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE 12Z SET OF TAFS. STILL A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
CEILINGS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
CLEARING MOVING EAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AFTER 14Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW INVERSION MAY STILL FORM IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY LINGER A HOUR OR 2 LONGER THAN
FORECAST IN WEST VIRGINIA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 02/27/16
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KEY WEST FL
213 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE ONLY LINGERING
CLOUDS NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE 65 WITH A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS SERVICE AREA. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES.
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ITS CENTER WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SWINGING QUICKLY THROUGH THE OHIO VLY.
ITS TRAILING FRONT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT SAGS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WED/EARLY THURSDAY. A SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THAT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH A MORE DEFINED SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE TRAILING FRONT BEHIND THAT LOW SHOULD SHOULD HAVE A
GREATER CHANCE OF PUSHING MORE CLEANLY THROUGH THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS...EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR VERY EARLY SATURDAY. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON THIS DELAYED SCENARIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF
ARE FOCUSING ELEVATED UPPER DYNAMICS OR LINGERING SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP
MOISTURE FOR THE LOCAL AREA...AT LEAST ON THIS RUN. WILL KEEP THE
RAIN CHANCE CAPPED AT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PUT IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SECOND FRONT. TEMPERATURE-WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING
TOWARDS THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TO BE AT
OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MID-WEEK...AND THEN BACK TO A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE MORE PRONOUNCED
SECOND FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST ON THIS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO HOW
HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURGING
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN BUT CONTINUES SEVERAL KNOTS HIGHER THAN ECMWF
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MORE RESOLUTE HRRR SHOWS ONLY A
SHORT PERIOD OF NEAR 20 KNOT WINDS STRADDLING THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PITCHING MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND
MODERATING. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFT
IS NECESSARY FOR A WHILE IN PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE AREA...BUT I
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS THE OPPORTUNITY TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS AND
MAKE A MORE CONFIDENT CALL ON THAT. WILL HAVE AN EXERCISE CAUTION
EVERYWHERE WITH A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAKE THIS UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION SHOULD YOU HAVE BOATING
PLANS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. MODERATING WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 28/18Z AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY LULL BRIEFLY AFTER
SUNSET AT MARATHON...THEN SURGE AGAIN BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1878...2.90 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL IN KEY WEST
ON FEBRUARY 27TH...WHICH STANDS 138 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 60 73 65 75 / - - - 10
MARATHON 59 73 65 75 / - - - 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
TEMPERATURES AT NOON WERE IN THE 50S WITH THE FAR SW NEAR 60.
WITH WINDS YET TO FULLY MIX OUT...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...AND
LOOKING AT GUSTIER WINDS AND WIDESPREAD 60S UPSTREAM OVER S
CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN MO...FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TOO LOW. HAVE
THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TWEAKING HIGHS UPWARDS CLOSE TO...BUT
NOT AS HIGH AS...THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR FIELDS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S EAST AND NORTH TO THE MID 60S SW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM
WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING ON IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S. SFC
WINDS OUT OF THE SSW WILL LEAD TO GORGEOUS WEATHER THIS SATURDAY
AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES. HOW
WARM WILL WE GET TODAY AND STAY TONIGHT ARE THE QUESTIONS. THE
AMERICAN MODELS AND THE GEM OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO COLD
FOR TODAYS HIGHS. MOS GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE HIGHS TODAY WITH 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 70
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. I DO NOT BUY THAT.
TONIGHT....WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AS AN H85 JET ROTATES
INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MAY ACTUALLY
BE TOO LOW. THINKING THAT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT...LOWS
IN THE 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SW ZONES. ONE THING IS SURE ABOUT
TODAYS FORECAST...IT WILL DEFINITELY START TO FEEL LIKE SPRING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
DRYING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MAIN
VORTICITY ADVECTION PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH INVERTED-V DRY SUB-CLOUD PROFILE. AS RESULT... HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES WITH ANYTHING ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES AT BEST. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT... TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL INTO THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S NEAR TO
SOUTH OF I-80 WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ASSISTANCE OF MILD LAUNCHING
POINT (40S TO NEAR 50 TO START OFF THE DAY). HIGHS MAY STILL BE A
SKOSH CONSERVATIVE AND NEEDING TO BE RAISED 1-3 DEGS MANY
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP
MIXING WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY... NEXT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS. GFS IS THE FASTER OUTLIER WITH FRONT
NEARLY BISECTING CWA FROM SW TO NE AT MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLOWER WITH FRONT SAGGING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND WITH
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER CONSENSUS.
AS A RESULT... HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-3 DEGS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGS
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER... IF TRENDS PERSIST THEN LIKELY NEED TO RAISE THE HIGHS
ANOTHER 1-3 DEGS FOR GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
DRY AIRMASS... WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF COHERENT FORCING YIELDS DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE WITH STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH
ECMWF STILL SUGGESTING A DEEPENING LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE
TAKING ON MORE NEGATIVE TILT. MEANWHILE... GEM/UK/GFS/NAM LATEST RUNS SUPPORT
MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES AND KEYS WITH WHERE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES LIE IS IN THE STRENGTH OF INCOMING SURFACE CANADIAN RIDGE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND COLD AIR WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH
SHARPENING OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OCCURS... IF AT ALL... WHICH WILL IMPACT
STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. THUS FOR NOW CONTINUE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PLACEMENT...TIMING...TRACK OF SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
AS RESULT... HAVE CONTINUED WITH GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MENTION AND CAPPED POPS IN
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY CENTERED ON THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WHERE THE SIGNAL
IS GREATEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SHOWN BY GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
SIMILAR CHALLENGES SHOW UP WITH STRENGTH OF INCOMING HIGH AND COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH LIKELY IMPACTING TRACK/STRENGTH AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
SIMILARLY HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR NOW.
TEMPS WHILE COOLER MID TO LATE WEEK GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH... TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY STORM TRACK AND
EASILY FLUCTUATE WARMER OR COLDER DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THAT
SPEED THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OFF THE SURFACE...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT HEIGHT AND MAGNITUDE IS LOW TO MODERATE AND A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WAS FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 50
KTS AT 1400 FT AGL. LLWS CONDITIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIKELY
STRENGTHENING TO 20 TO 30 KTS BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM
WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING ON IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S. SFC
WINDS OUT OF THE SSW WILL LEAD TO GORGEOUS WEATHER THIS SATURDAY
AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES. HOW
WARM WILL WE GET TODAY AND STAY TONIGHT ARE THE QUESTIONS. THE
AMERICAN MODELS AND THE GEM OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO COLD
FOR TODAYS HIGHS. MOS GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE HIGHS TODAY WITH 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD REACH NEAR 70
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. I DO NOT BUY THAT.
TONIGHT....WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AS AN H85 JET ROTATES
INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MAY ACTUALLY
BE TOO LOW. THINKING THAT IF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT...LOWS
IN THE 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SW ZONES. ONE THING IS SURE ABOUT
TODAYS FORECAST...IT WILL DEFINITELY START TO FEEL LIKE SPRING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
DRYING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MAIN
VORTICITY ADVECTION PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH INVERTED-V DRY SUB-CLOUD PROFILE. AS RESULT... HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES WITH ANYTHING ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES AT BEST. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT... TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL INTO THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S NEAR TO
SOUTH OF I-80 WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ASSISTANCE OF MILD LAUNCHING
POINT (40S TO NEAR 50 TO START OFF THE DAY). HIGHS MAY STILL BE A
SKOSH CONSERVATIVE AND NEEDING TO BE RAISED 1-3 DEGS MANY
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP
MIXING WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE MIXED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
MONDAY... NEXT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS. GFS IS THE FASTER OUTLIER WITH FRONT
NEARLY BISECTING CWA FROM SW TO NE AT MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLOWER WITH FRONT SAGGING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND WITH
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER CONSENSUS.
AS A RESULT... HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-3 DEGS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGS
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER... IF TRENDS PERSIST THEN LIKELY NEED TO RAISE THE HIGHS
ANOTHER 1-3 DEGS FOR GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
DRY AIRMASS... WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF COHERENT FORCING YIELDS DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE WITH STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH
ECMWF STILL SUGGESTING A DEEPENING LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE
TAKING ON MORE NEGATIVE TILT. MEANWHILE... GEM/UK/GFS/NAM LATEST RUNS SUPPORT
MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES AND KEYS WITH WHERE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES LIE IS IN THE STRENGTH OF INCOMING SURFACE CANADIAN RIDGE.
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND COLD AIR WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH
SHARPENING OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OCCURS... IF AT ALL... WHICH WILL IMPACT
STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. THUS FOR NOW CONTINUE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PLACEMENT...TIMING...TRACK OF SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
AS RESULT... HAVE CONTINUED WITH GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MENTION AND CAPPED POPS IN
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY CENTERED ON THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WHERE THE SIGNAL
IS GREATEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SHOWN BY GFS AND ECMWF THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
SIMILAR CHALLENGES SHOW UP WITH STRENGTH OF INCOMING HIGH AND COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH LIKELY IMPACTING TRACK/STRENGTH AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
SIMILARLY HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR NOW.
TEMPS WHILE COOLER MID TO LATE WEEK GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH... TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY STORM TRACK AND
EASILY FLUCTUATE WARMER OR COLDER DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THAT
SPEED THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OFF THE SURFACE...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT HEIGHT AND MAGNITUDE IS LOW TO MODERATE AND A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WAS FOLLOWED FOR NOW WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 50
KTS AT 1400 FT AGL. LLWS CONDITIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIKELY
STRENGTHENING TO 20 TO 30 KTS BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN LO AMPLITUDE RDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME
TROFFING IN ERN NAMERICA. THE WX OVER UPR MI IS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH LLVL WNW FLOW ADVECTING 12Z H85 TEMP OF 5C AT INL INTO THE
CWA. DESPITE SOME MID/HI CLDS PRESENT ABOVE FAIRLY DRY SFC-H7 LYR
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S WITHIN THIS PACIFIC AIRMASS...REACHING RECORD LVLS AT SOME
PLACES. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT DROPPING INTO LK SUP. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FNT IS RATHER COLD AND DRY AS 12Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS WERE 35C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. SFC DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN BLO
0F JUST TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS A
SHRTWV MOVING E THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE RDG
AXIS. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD VSBL ON WV IMAGERY...AND
OBSVD 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS IN ITS PATH WERE ARND 100M.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON IMPACT OF SHRTWV
MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PCPN/SN TOTALS AND NEED TO EXPAND GOING WINTER WX ADVY.
TONIGHT...HIER RES MODELS SHOW SFC COLD FNT DROPPING S THRU THE CWA
THIS EVNG...REACHING NEAR MENOMINEE BY 06Z...WHEN THE FNT IS FCST TO
STALL ACROSS NCENTRAL WI. WHILE THE FROPA WL BE DRY DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF MSTR IN THE SFC-H7 LYR...MANY OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW
FAIRLY SGNFT LLVL MOISTENING UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION BASE
STRENGTHENED BY NEAR SFC CAA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE LLVL
ENE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WL UPSLOPE. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR
SHOWN ON UPSTREAM OBS AND TENDENCY FOR SOME OF THESE MODELS TO BE
TOO MOIST IN THE NEAR SFC LYR...CONCERNED THIS LLVL MOISTENING MAY
BE OVERDONE. BUT OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL WHERE THE MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE FLOW WL ENHANCE COOLING/MOISTENING.
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN...INCRSG DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE APRCHG NRN ROCKIES SHRTWV THAT WL CAUSE A
LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE STALLING FNT IN MN/WI AS WELL AS UPR
DVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND IN RRQ OF 130KT H3
JET MAX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY WL CAUSE DEEPENING MSTR/PCPN TO ENVELOP
THE AREA FM THE NW. THIS PCPN WL AT LEAST BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
SN/SLEET/FREEZING RA AND RA OVER ALL BUT THE NCENTRAL DUE TO
PRONOUCNED ELEVATED WARM/DRY LYR SHOWN BY MANY OF THE MODEL FCST
SDNGS. BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND RESULTING DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WL COOL/MOISTEN THIS LYR WL CAUSE A CHANGE TO SN FM THE
NW TO SE. THE NAM IS A BIT OUT OF AN OUTLIER SHOWING A LONGER
LASTING ELEVATED WARM LYR...BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING WL TEND TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE/QUICKER CHANGE TO MAINLY
SN. BUT EVEN THESE MODELS INDICATE SOME MIXED PCPN WL LINGER OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN ON SUN.
ONCE THE SFC LO TRACKING E ALONG THE STALLED FNT TO THE S SHIFTS
INTO LOWER MI AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS OVER THE W IN THE
AFTN...EXPECT THE PCPN THERE TO TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT LES AS H85
TEMPS FALL TO TOWARD -13C UNDER TRAILING THERMAL TROF. AS FOR SN
TOTALS...FCST H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO ABOUT 3-4 G/KG INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 INCHES OF WET SN /DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER HI
AND NARROW/ IN 6-12HR PERIOD OF FORCING OVER MAINLY THE N HALF OF
THE CWA...WHICH WL BE IMPACTED BY THE SHARPEST FGEN. OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PCPN AND PASSAGE OF ENHANCED
FORCING TO THE N WL RESULT IN AN INCH OR LESS OF SN.
FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO INCLUDE ONTONAGON AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SN WL
FALL IN THIS AREA. ALSO CONSIDERED ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES AS
WELL...BUT WITH MAINLY ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FCST IN THIS AREA DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE CWA TO
HEADLINE THE WINTRY MIX.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
...SNOW AND BLSN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IS HIGHEST IMPACT
WEATHER OF EXTENDED...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND COLD AIR STARTS THE WEEK OUT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND GREAT LAKES. A FEW INTERVALS OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET
DIGGING INTO WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THIS PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN JET BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE.
MOST EFFECTS OF SUN SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH ON SUN EVENING AS BRIEF SFC
RIDGE CROSSES AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS
FIRST PART OF SUN EVENING OVER FAR EAST. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DIVE TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUN
NIGHT AND CROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON MON MORNING. PVA/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
WINDS SHIFTING NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -19C
BY LATE MON MORNING WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MOST OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE EXITING MID-LATE MORNING SO THINK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...SO BLSN AND
REDUCED VSBY MAY BE ISSUE AS WELL. NAM IS SLOW OUTLIER WITH
FROPA...SO WENT MORE WITH GFS/GEM/LOCAL WRF. THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE REACHING ADVY...ADDED WIND/BLSN COMBINED WITH FROPA
OCCURRING JUST BEFORE OR DURING THE MON MORNING COMMUTE MAY ADD TO
THE HAZARD. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING...LES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT AT A DIMINISHED INTENSITY. SOUNDINGS AT END OF FETCH AT
P53 AND ERY INDICATE INVERSIONS LESS THAN 5KFT EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -18C. SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE STAYS
ON TRACK SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING SNOW
FM NORTHERN ILL TO LOWER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EVEN WITH
SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH...HINTS IN MODELS THAT LES MAY FLARE UP SOME
FOR NW FLOW AREAS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHERN FRINGE OF
DEEPER FORCING AFFECTS UPR MICHIGAN. INVERSIONS REMAIN AT OR BLO
5KFT SO EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE OF LES WILL INCREASE...IT SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM ON UPPER LAKES BY WED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW TIGHT SFC TROUGH BECOMES OVER LK
SUPERIOR INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS/GEM SHOW MORE OF A LOW OVER EASTERN
UPR MICHIGAN BY WED AFTN WHILE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG. EITHER CASE
SHOULD FAVOR PERIOD OF LGT SNOW WED MORNING BECOMING LES OFF
SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN INTO WED NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. WITH THE STRONGER LOW...GFS IDEA WOULD SUGGEST
MORE SNOW/BLSN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS AT P53 SHOW
INVERSIONS NEARING 10KFT. ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD OR STRONG WITH MSLP
GRADIENT. BOTH SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE. RAN WITH CONSENSUS...BUT DID
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED INTO WED NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF LK
SUPERIOR AS A NUDGE TOWARD COLDER IDEA. RIDGE BUILDS OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES THU INTO THU NIGHT. MINS THU NIGHT OVER INTERIOR COULD
DROP BLO ZERO...BUT DID NOT GO THAT FAR FM CONSENSUS NOW. ONCE RIDGE
PASSES BY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
MODEST WARMING TREND AND AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
A STEADILY DIMINISHING...DRY W TO SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTN. BUT WITH
A WSHFT TO THE NE FOLLOWING A COLD FROPA THIS EVNG...SOME LO CLDS
WITH MVFR CIGS WL DVLP AND THEN TRANSITION TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AT
SAW WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION UNDER STRENGTHENING LO
INVRN BASE. THE SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION AT SAW WL ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOME -FZDZ OVERNGT AT THAT LOCATION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MSTR LATE TNGT AND SUN MRNG...EXPECT SN AT CMX AND A WINTRY MIX
CHANGING TO SN AT IWD AND SAW. LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AT ALL
THE SITES SUN MRNG WITH STEADY LGT-MDT SN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016
COLD FRONT MOVING DROPPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A SFC LOW
CROSSING UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING NE GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY ON SUN. WINDS UP TO 30
KTS OVER REST OF THE LAKE. RIDGE DROPS WINDS BLO 25 KTS LATER SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
25 KTS OR LESS BY THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THEN
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE ON MON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1132 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
On the large scale...water vapor showing a building ridge of high
pressure across the Central Rockies this morning which is occurring
ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough now digging into the Great
Basin. This ridge will continue to move downstream over the Plains
and Lower Missouri Valley today...which will result in afternoon
highs anywhere between 15-20 degrees below normal. 00z upstream
observed soundings showing a very dry atmosphere in place across the
Northern and Central Plains...with fcst soundings suggesting dry
adiabatic lapse rates and decent mixing potential this afternoon.
Winds of 15-20 mph with stronger gusts will combine with low
relative humidity values to result in an enhanced fire weather
threat this afternoon...and additional details are provided in the
fire weather section below. Otherwise...expect mostly sunny skies
with daytime highs climbing into the middle to upper 60s across much
of the area...with a few low 70s possible across far eastern Kansas
and far western Missouri.
Dry conditions tonight will give way to increasing cloud cover
towards morning as aforementioned shortwave sends a cold front south
towards our area early Sunday morning. This feature will pass with
little impact through the day as any precip remains well to our
north. Temps will be cooler (generally in the low to mid 60s) as
cold air advection gets underway by early afternoon across much of
the area.
High pressure to quickly build in Sunday night and early Monday which
should provide a dry start to the work week. Meanwhile attention will
quickly be drawn to our west as long-advertised storm system begins
to take shape as northern stream energy quickly dives southeast from
the Canadian and Northern Rockies. As was stated yesterday...models
have been struggling with the degree of impacts across our area as
phasing disagreements continue to result in a multitude of different
storm tracks for the main sfc low. The GFS...the furthest northward
solution last night...is now the farthest south...with the main sfc
low fcst to track from the Red River Vly east along the MO/AR state
line. Meanwhile the ECMWF...and to a lesser extent the
Canadian...take the sfc low on a much further northward
track...mainly along and north of I-70. Irregardless of which
solution verifies...latest trends suggest only minor impacts across
our area as precip largely stays in the form of rain until early
Tuesday morning when enough cold air sinks south temporarily to
allow a rain/snow mix before diurnal warming changes any wintry
precip back to rain.
Beyond this...dry wx to return by Tuesday night with this trend
continuing through the day on Wednesday as high pressure temporarily
slides into the region. Fcst models show the next weak storm system
impacting the area early Thursday as the next fast clipper-type
system moves across the area. Dry wx will then return for the
remainder of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
Unrestricted visibility and ceilings anticipated through the entire
forecast period. Gusty winds will likely persist overnight, which
should prevent low level wind shear concerns. Winds in the lowest
3000 feet could reach 50 to 55 kts out of the southwest. Should
surface winds remain in the 15 to 25 kt range LLWS concerns will be
low, but if winds go calm or light for a couple hours overnight, LLWS
will be an issue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Fire weather concerns will be on the rise this afternoon as low
relative humidity combines with dry surface fuels and modest
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph. Winds should begin to pick up
later today with gusts reaching as high as 25-30 mph during peak
heating. BUFKIT soundings reveal plenty of varying solutions on the
efficiency of atmospheric mixing later this afternoon. Soundings from
the NAM suggest shallow mixing only occurring up to roughly
925-mb...while the RAP maintains the suggestion of ample mixing
occurring past 850-mb. Under this scenario...stronger winds (850
winds of roughly 40 kts expected today) would have little difficulty
mixing to the surface thanks to favorable low-level lapse rates. The
GFS is slightly higher with its mixing depth as compared to the
NAM...but not nearly as efficient as what the RAP is advertising.
Based on this along with numerous model wind field solutions that
suggest 20-foot winds will remain in the 15-20 mph range this
afternoon...have elected to hold off on upgrading the inherited SPS
to a Red Flag Warning (RFW) this morning. Will allow dayshift the
opportunity to monitor trends with the assumption that a quick-
hitting RFW could be issued if needed. Winds will remain elevated
overnight...however increasing RH values will result in improving
fire weather concerns through the evening and overnight hours.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 27/18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
03Z TONIGHT...WITH 45-55 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 1500 FT
AGL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT KGAG/KWWR...WHERE UP TO 40
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE SFC AND 1500 FT. WIND
SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z.
A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE WIND SHIFT PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE WIND SHIFT WILL
APPROACH KOKC/KOUN/KLAW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MAHALE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/
UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING.
DISCUSSION...
IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO LOWER VALUES
THAN HAD BEEN IN THE PACKAGE GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE SEEN
ON THE 12Z OUN... AMA AND MAF SOUNDINGS. FWD MOISTURE DEPTH WAS A
LITTLE DEEPER ALTHOUGH THERE IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD STILL MIX OUT
SOME AND THAT TRAJECTORY WOULD BE MOSTLY INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HAVE GONE WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE RAP FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
STILL WORRY THAT THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AND WILL CLOSELY
WATCH TRENDS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE IS
WORKING UP THROUGH THE GAP IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK NORTH OF DEL
RIO AND UP THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... BUT EVEN THE DEL RIO
SOUNDING WOULD MIX MOISTURE OUT SOME ONCE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE 60S. WITH THIS RAP DEWPOINTS... RH VALUES LOWER
SUFFICIENTLY TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING SO HAVE DONE THAT TO
INCLUDE LAWTON AND MUCH OF OKC. AGAIN... WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE
TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY.
/SPEG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES 15-19Z. THESE GUSTS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z.
NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT MANY
LOCATIONS. ONLY MENTIONED IT AT KPNC WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
TODAY WILL BE A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL. UPGRADED THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING AS THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODEL GUIDANCE
HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS COLD. A DRY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 AM.
SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED WARM THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HEATING...EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN
TODAY AS THERE DOES NOT TO BE ANY COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE
OLD FRONT AS THERE COULD BE A SIGNFICANT SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MODELS DEPICTED QPF ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO 1600 J/KG AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7 TO 8 DEG/C. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTED THIS
INSTABILITY STAYING ELEVATED IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL REPORTS WITH STORMS. A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE
INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. SPC DAY3 MARGINAL RISK HANDLES THIS
SITUATION VERY WELL. EXACT TIMING...LOCATIONS...AND EVOLUTION OF
STORMS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE GREATEST STORM
CHANCES...20 TO 40 PERCENT...NORTHEAST OF A WOODWARD TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO DURANT LINE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER IS
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO STILLWATER
LINE WHERE LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES...GENERALLY 12 TO 20
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
AREA...SO EXPANSION OF THE WARNING AREA COULD OCCUR. THE STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SUNDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS AND
LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST. 20 FT WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY STAY BELOW 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST...THOUGH NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
COULD BRIEFLY BE NEAR MET NEAR THE WOODWARD...CLINTON...AND
HOBART AREAS.
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING
SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY AGAIN ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 47 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 70 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 70 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 51 70 48 72 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>026-
033>038.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085.
&&
$$
26/10/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016
.UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO LOWER VALUES
THAN HAD BEEN IN THE PACKAGE GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE SEEN
ON THE 12Z OUN... AMA AND MAF SOUNDINGS. FWD MOISTURE DEPTH WAS A
LITTLE DEEPER ALTHOUGH THERE IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD STILL MIX OUT
SOME AND THAT TRAJECTORY WOULD BE MOSTLY INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HAVE GONE WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE RAP FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
STILL WORRY THAT THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AND WILL CLOSELY
WATCH TRENDS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE IS
WORKING UP THROUGH THE GAP IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK NORTH OF DEL
RIO AND UP THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... BUT EVEN THE DEL RIO
SOUNDING WOULD MIX MOISTURE OUT SOME ONCE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE 60S. WITH THIS RAP DEWPOINTS... RH VALUES LOWER
SUFFICIENTLY TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING SO HAVE DONE THAT TO
INCLUDE LAWTON AND MUCH OF OKC. AGAIN... WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE
TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY.
/SPEG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT MOST SITES 15-19Z. THESE GUSTS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z.
NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT MANY
LOCATIONS. ONLY MENTIONED IT AT KPNC WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
TODAY WILL BE A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL. UPGRADED THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING AS THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODEL GUIDANCE
HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS COLD. A DRY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 AM.
SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED WARM THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HEATING...EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN
TODAY AS THERE DOES NOT TO BE ANY COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE
OLD FRONT AS THERE COULD BE A SIGNFICANT SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MODELS DEPICTED QPF ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO 1600 J/KG AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7 TO 8 DEG/C. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTED THIS
INSTABILITY STAYING ELEVATED IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL REPORTS WITH STORMS. A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE
INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. SPC DAY3 MARGINAL RISK HANDLES THIS
SITUATION VERY WELL. EXACT TIMING...LOCATIONS...AND EVOLUTION OF
STORMS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE GREATEST STORM
CHANCES...20 TO 40 PERCENT...NORTHEAST OF A WOODWARD TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO DURANT LINE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER IS
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO STILLWATER
LINE WHERE LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES...GENERALLY 12 TO 20
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
AREA...SO EXPANSION OF THE WARNING AREA COULD OCCUR. THE STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SUNDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS AND
LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST. 20 FT WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY STAY BELOW 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST...THOUGH NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
COULD BRIEFLY BE NEAR MET NEAR THE WOODWARD...CLINTON...AND
HOBART AREAS.
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE LOWEST SURFACE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING
SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY AGAIN ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 52 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 47 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 51 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 43 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 75 47 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 70 51 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>026-
033>038.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085.
&&
$$