Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/26/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
414 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TONIGHT...REACHING MILD LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER TEMPEARTURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 413 PM EST...A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
WITH THIS STORM EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID
LEVELS...WITH 850 HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE
850 V WINDS ARE 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE
NORMAL AS WELL. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN
BREAK THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SEVERE T-STORMS OVER VIRGINA/NORTH
CAROLINA AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. AS THIS WHOLE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS BAND
OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE STORM/S OCCLUDED
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
LINE COULD BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH
DIFFERENT HERE THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL
TEMPS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY
RATHER LOW AND HELP PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
FROM MIXING DOWN IN PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE
BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY IN THE 30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS WE GET TOWARDS
THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP TEMPS SPIKE
TONIGHT INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WHICH COULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE SO THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOP.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z THURSDAY
WILL HOVER BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR.
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL. RAIN WILL TEND TO END IN ALL AREAS BY 14Z-15Z...BUT SOME
PATCHES OF RAIN MAY STILL BE AROUND TO REQUIRE VCSH TOMORROW
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
REQUIRE A MENTION OF WIND SHEAR. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL WATCH LATER TRENDS FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN BETWEEN 12Z-15Z
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TONIGHT...REACHING MILD LEVELS FOR TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS ENDING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1244 PM EST...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY
RISE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHEASTERN VT REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH 3 PM DUE TO A
LITTLE LINGERING FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ICE ACCRETION WILL LIKELY JUST BE A TRACE. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID AFTN HOURS...ENDING THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN.
BASED ON CURRENT KENX RADAR AND THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...STEADY
RAINFALL IS RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...A FEW POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE COULD
BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDER APPEARS TO BE THE LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR ONLY VERY SLOWLY RISE. DAILY
HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
RAINFALL RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR OR
MORE AT TIMES.
IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWALTER INDEX COULD STILL DIP AT OR BELOW
0C ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT IMPLYING AN UNSTABLE
ELEVATED ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE T-STORMS...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING. THIS JET WILL SEND PWAT VALUES OVER AN INCH
INTO OUR REGION...3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR. THE WIND AT H850 OFF THE GEFS LOOKS TO BE
UP TO 60KTS...ALSO 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
REGARDING THE V (SOUTHERLY COMPONENT). H850 TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REACH 10C OR BETTER.
NOW...IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVEN IF LOW TOPPED...
THEY COULD EASILY TAP INTO THE WIND FIELD AND PRODUCE VERY
STRONG GUSTS.
EVEN WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRONG SYNOPTIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER THE TACONICS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WE DID NOT HOIST ANY WIND
ADVISORIES JUST YET. WE WILL LET THE DAY CREW MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON
ANY WIND HEADLINES. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE A SATURATED COLUMN
WHICH MAKE IT HARDER FOR A FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WIND TO THE
SURFACE. MOST PLACES WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST...
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS
AND ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-2 INCHES. HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES LOOK MINOR
BUT ALL THE ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RISE INSTEAD OF FALL...THROUGH THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN...ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND
RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOWMELT IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT SHOULD TAPER THE RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...EVEN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ON BY...WITH DRYING
ALOFT THE WIND WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
LOOK FOR THE WIND TO AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...
AND EVEN CLOSE TO 50 ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO BREAK INTO MORE SUNSHINE (LIKE LAST SATURDAY) THESE NUMBERS
COULD GO A BIT HIGHER AS THEY DID LAST SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON THURSDAY LOOKS MUCH LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS H850
TEMPS FALL QUICKLY FROM +5C TO +9C LOWER THAN -10C BY FRIDAY. A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WILL GREET US FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
TO THE 20S /TEENS NORTH/. THE COLUMN LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW (ENHANCED BY LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE) MAINLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT SOME OVER THE CATSKILLS AND TERRAIN TO THE
EAST OF ALBANY POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS APPROACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY TOMORROW NIGHT.
VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY
BLUSTERY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 30-35 IN MOST VALLEYS...
20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND 10-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH... WILL
MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER BUT NOWHERE NEAR DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL LEVELS.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WIND (BUT NOT COMPLETELY). LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY (OUTSIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS)
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 30S VALLEYS...CLOSER TO 30
HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET. THE GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL
NORTH IN CANADA...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND MENTION
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH COOLER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. DUE THE THREAT OF THE FRONT NEARBY...WILL ALSO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I-90.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...A DEEPENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES...THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS THE CYCLONE CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING IS POSSIBLE
IN A MINI-WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. THIS COULD
SENT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
COOLER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH QUICKER. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT
WILL TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
A LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AS THE GFS INDICATES A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS FORECAST STORM
TRACKS WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE SO THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOP.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z THURSDAY
WILL HOVER BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR.
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL. RAIN WILL TEND TO END IN ALL AREAS BY 14Z-15Z...BUT SOME
PATCHES OF RAIN MAY STILL BE AROUND TO REQUIRE VCSH TOMORROW
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
REQUIRE A MENTION OF WIND SHEAR. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL WATCH LATER TRENDS FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN BETWEEN 12Z-15Z
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A HEAVY PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...PERHAPS
A TAD LOWER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.
AS A RESULT AT THIS TIME...ONLY THE SREFS OFF THE METEOROLOGICAL
MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS (MMEFS) INDICATE ANY RIVER POINT
GOING ABOVE FLOODING (WILLIAMSTOWN AND HOPE) WHILE THE GEFS AND
NAEFS DO INDICATE ANY FLOODING BUT PLENTY OF POINTS REACHING
ACTION STAGES.
AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON MANY
RIVER AND STREAMS. A LOWER THAN AVERAGE SNOW PACK WILL CERTAINLY
HELP MITIGATE ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL.
NO FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THAT SAID...THE RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS
AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
AS TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED. COLDER AIR MOVING BACK THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WILL SLOW THE RUNOFF.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ033-041>043-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VTZ014-015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
357 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WIND DOWN NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH MID EVENING...
...TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER THURSDAY...REMAINING WINDY...
CURRENT-THIS EVENING...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND EXIT
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OSCEOLA COUNTY TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY EAST
TO THE SOUTHERN BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS WERE
INDICATING STORMS AND SHOWERS CLEARING SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 10
PM THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS
SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LINE OF STORMS
CLEARS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT.
SLIGHT CHANCE/20 POP OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS SEBASTIAN/INDIAN RIVER
COUNTY SOUTH DURING THE EVENING WIND DOWN/EXIT MARTIN COUNTY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW/MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS.
THU...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN TO TEXAS THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST. BROAD TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
REACHES ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES THE
SURFACE OVER FLORIDA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DIMINISH
TO 5 TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT. HIGHS MID 60S...LOWS LOW AND MID 40S EXCEPT
UPPER 30S EASTERN OSCEOLA...OKEECHOBEE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES.
FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF/TX/LA SHIFTS EAST TO
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN. NORTHWEST WINDS FRI SHIFT TO NORTH 10 MPH
SAT THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 MPH SUN. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 10
PERCENT OR LESS. HIGHS MID/UPPER 60S FRI AND SAT THEN LOW 70S SUN.
LOWS MID/UPPER 30S SAT MORNING...LOW 40S TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO SOUTH
SUN MORNING AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S MON MORNING.
MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA MON SLOW SHIFTS NORTH THROUGH
WED. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LOWS MID/UPPER
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN/VC TSTMS/SHWRS MCO-TIX NORTH AND MLB
LAKE KISSIMMEE SOUTH THROUGH 02Z. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS TIL 16Z.
STORMS/SHOWERS END NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT-FRI...STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GALE WARNING OFFSHORE ENDS THU MORNING THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THU LATE OVERNIGHT THU/EARLY FRI MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY FRI MORNING TO OVERNIGHT FRI/SAT MORNING.
SAT-MON...MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST SUN AND MON.
AREA. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT FRI OVERNIGHT...REMAINING
NEAR THESE VALUES THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVIOUS FIRE DISCUSSION
THU-FRI...VERY DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW AFTN MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE U20S-30S AREAWIDE.
GUSTY W/WNW 20 FT WINDS ON THU DECREASING INTO FRI. DISPERSION
SHOULD BE VG- EX.
SAT-SUN...CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
30S AGAIN FOR SAT...THEN M-U30S WELL INTO THE INTERIOR ON SUN AND M-
U40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS FINALLY VEER TO NE/E BRINGING A LITTLE
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 48 65 42 62 / 0 10 10 10
MCO 50 66 42 67 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 52 66 43 66 / 10 0 10 10
VRB 54 67 40 67 / 20 0 10 10
LEE 48 65 44 65 / 0 0 10 10
SFB 48 66 43 65 / 0 10 10 10
ORL 50 66 46 66 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 54 68 41 67 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY/ULRICH
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
119 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS SLOWLY BEGUN LIFTING
NORTHWARD WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR AN ATL-AGS-MYR LINE LATE THIS
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE
STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM
SURFACE- BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE. SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY 12Z. EXPECT
WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE. DESPITE THE
WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE CSRA TOWARD
SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
PATCHY FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD
FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF
36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS
PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH GENERAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
THE NAM INDICATED 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD
LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS AROUND 0.40 OF INCH.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING WAS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E
CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS AND LLWS THROUGH 18Z...THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL
GA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO AGS/DNL AROUND
08Z...THEN SPREAD INTO CAE/CUB/OGB BETWEEN 09 AND 10Z. LLWS IS
ALSO A CONCERN AS WINDS A 2KFT ARE CURRENTLY 40 KNOTS. WINDS AT 5
KFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE HIGHER WIND SPEED MIX TO THE SURFACE.
WITH THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND VEER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SOUTHERLY AT 20 GUSTING 30KT AT
SUNRISE...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 25 GUSTING UP TO 35 BY 17Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 17Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
634 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER. A NICE WARM
UP IS EXPECTED BUT THE RECENT SNOWPACK WILL TEMPER THE WARMTH
INITIALLY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN THE
NORTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. THE OUTLOOK FOR
THIS WEEKEND IS FOR HIGHS INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND 50S FOR
SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
A MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM AS SYNOPTIC SNOW COMES TO AN END AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING SOUTH AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DONE BEFORE
00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWING LAKE EFFECT BANDS SETTING UP AROUND 00Z
BUT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING.
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BRING A
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LAKE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY RISE TO
AROUND 5-6KFT FOR JUST A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 4KFT REST OF NIGHT. TRAJECTORIES AND DGZ FAVORABLE
BUT INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED WITH DELTA T/S 13-14C. HRRR AND RUC13
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT ALL DAY SHOWING LIGHT BANDS DEVELOPING
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF. GIVEN RADAR SIGNALS ALREADY HAVE SIDED
TOWARD THE HIRES GUIDANCE. ARW-WRF HAS DONE WELL THIS SEASON WITH
LES BANDS AND BLENDED IT WITH LATEST RUC FOR FORECAST. BANDS SHOWN
BY MOST MODELS TO PENETRATE RATHER FAR INLAND AND DOWN TO CENTRAL IN
AND INTO OHIO WITH HELP FROM SHORT WAVE. THEREFORE CARRIED LOW POPS
ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN BORDER. STILL THINK ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH
OR LESS GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS BUT ISOLATED 2 POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTH IF A STRONGER BAND DEVELOPS IN BRIEF BUT PRIME WINDOW.
OTHERWISE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE IN SHORT TERM. POSSIBILITY OF
NORTHEAST BEING CLEAR AFTER SHORT WAVE WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5
KNOTS OR SO LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK. CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD OR
BELOW LOWER END OF MOS. ALSO KEPT HIGHS IN LOWER END FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
WARM UP WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INITIALLY
INFLUENCED BY RIPENING AND SLOWLY MELTING SNOWPACK. AM HESITANT TO
INCREASE TEMPS TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY WHERE 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
CURRENTLY RESIDES AND AT LEAST 2 THAW/FREEZE CYCLES TO OCCUR BEFORE
WE STAY ABOVE FREEZING STARTING SATURDAY. HAVE ALLOWED HIGHS TO
REACH AT LEAST 40 ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMEST READINGS IN FAR
SOUTH. WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO PULL UP AT LEAST SOME GULF
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF DEEPER MSTR WILL
PHASES IN TIME WITH THE SYSTEM TO WARRANT EXPANDED LIKELY OR EVEN
CAT POPS SO HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY UNTOUCHED. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPE...ALL LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE SEEN INTO SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
INFLUENCE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT AS MAIN FOCUS YET
ANOTHER WAVE IN A VERY ACTIVE FLOW ENTERS THE NW STATES AND THEN
BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS VARY ON HANDLING WITH ECMWF
BRINGING A OPEN BUT EVENTUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVING THROUGH
VS GFS CUTTING OFF A DEEP UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS MI. LOTS OF
SPECULATION WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS ON THE AREA...BUT GIVEN NOTED
DIFFERENCES...PERIOD OF INTEREST PAST DAY 5 AND CRITICAL THERMAL
PROFILES/SFC LOW TRACK ALL IN QUESTIONS...HAVE TO CONSIDER JUST ABOUT
ANY FORM OF PRECIP AND WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THIS JUNCTURE FROM
FROZEN/FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE NOT
LIKELY TO INCREASE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF INTEREST
BECOMES SAMPLED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
STRATO CU DECK EXTENDS UPSTREAM TO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY
CONT TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS INDIANA FRIDAY AFTN
WITH CLEARING LIKELY TAKING PLACE BEHIND THIS FEATURE BEYOND THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH MVFR OR LOW
VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BUT AVIATION IMPACT SHOULD BE MINOR AS MEAGER LAKE INDUCED CAPE
FCST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
551 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADS WILL
BE SNOW COVERED SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY MAKE TRAVEL
IMPOSSIBLE ON SOME ROADS. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DRY
SLOT DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STRONG ASCENT TODAY WHICH
QUICKLY COOLED THE COLUMN AND LED TO RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS CERTAINLY HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING EVENT TO WATCH UNFOLD. HIGH
DGZ...STRONG WINDS AND SATURATED COLUMN BELOW DGZ LED TO AN
INTERESTING PATTERN TODAY WITH PCPN TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS.
OBSERVATIONS AT KIWX SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN JUST A MATTER OF MINUTES. BANDS OF STRONGER
SNOW AND DEEPER LIFT PRODUCED LARGE SNOWFLAKES WHILE INTERMITTENT
PERIODS BETWEEN HEAVIER BANDS SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE DWINDLE TO VERY
FINE FLAKES AND EVEN SNOW PELLETS AND SLEET AT TIMES WITH SOME
MELTING AND REFREEZING. TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WARM LAYER CHANGED PCPN
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE DRY SLOT ENDED PCPN ENTIRELY. WHILE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AREA HAS SEEN THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY...REPORTS FROM KSBN
AND METRO AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES
REPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND
URBAN SETTING THERE MAY HAVE BEEN FASTER COMPACTION AND MELTING
PROCESSES WITH SNOW ON GROUND COMPARED TO MORE RURAL AREAS.
REST OF EVENING WILL SEE DRY SLOT FILL IN AS EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ROTATES NORTH. DEFORMATION ZONE TO EXPAND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY. COLDER AIR WILL EXPAND EAST
AND SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TYPE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING IN FAR EAST.
RUC AND HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TYPES TODAY AND USED THESE
ALONG WITH NAM12 BLENDED FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN POWT PROCESS
FOR FORECAST GRIDS. LIQUID SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW AS EXPECTED
WITH AROUND 10 TO 1 AVERAGE. SHOULD SEE THESE IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR AND DGZ LOWERING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING OFF THE LAKE INTO NW AND NC INDIANA WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW. OVERALL INHERITED ACCUMS LOOK GOOD WITH REPORTS
RECEIVED ALREADY...TOTAL ACCUMS AROUND A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE NW
INDIANA TO SW MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW COMES TO AN
END.
HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG WITH WINDS JUST BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA HAS
KEPT NW AREAS FROM SEEING TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WARRANT KEEPING THE BZW IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME STRONGER GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH GRADIENT AS
WELL. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS INTACT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY EAST
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EASTWARD AND
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING
MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND ALEUTIANS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
US. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF
ALEUTIAN LOW AND ENTERING WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
SUNDAY...BUT THEN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TRANSITION PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AS THIS FIRST
SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE
COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS INVERTED TROF EXTENDING UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
LOW LIFTING NE INTO LAKE ERIE THIS EVE WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND INTO NE INDIANA CAUSING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT FWA.
LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LOW WILL CONT TO
CAUSE SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS FURTHER DECREASED BY BLSN AS
STRONG N-NW WINDS CONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY THU AFTN AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND NW WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009-018-
025>027-032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016-
017-022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4
PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ002-005-
016-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001-004-
015-024.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADS WILL
BE SNOW COVERED SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY MAKE TRAVEL
IMPOSSIBLE ON SOME ROADS. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DRY
SLOT DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STRONG ASCENT TODAY WHICH
QUICKLY COOLED THE COLUMN AND LED TO RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS CERTAINLY HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING EVENT TO WATCH UNFOLD. HIGH
DGZ...STRONG WINDS AND SATURATED COLUMN BELOW DGZ LED TO AN
INTERESTING PATTERN TODAY WITH PCPN TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS.
OBSERVATIONS AT KIWX SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN JUST A MATTER OF MINUTES. BANDS OF STRONGER
SNOW AND DEEPER LIFT PRODUCED LARGE SNOWFLAKES WHILE INTERMITTENT
PERIODS BETWEEN HEAVIER BANDS SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE DWINDLE TO VERY
FINE FLAKES AND EVEN SNOW PELLETS AND SLEET AT TIMES WITH SOME
MELTING AND REFREEZING. TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WARM LAYER CHANGED PCPN
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE DRY SLOT ENDED PCPN ENTIRELY. WHILE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AREA HAS SEEN THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY...REPORTS FROM KSBN
AND METRO AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES
REPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND
URBAN SETTING THERE MAY HAVE BEEN FASTER COMPACTION AND MELTING
PROCESSES WITH SNOW ON GROUND COMPARED TO MORE RURAL AREAS.
REST OF EVENING WILL SEE DRY SLOT FILL IN AS EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ROTATES NORTH. DEFORMATION ZONE TO EXPAND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY. COLDER AIR WILL EXPAND EAST
AND SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TYPE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING IN FAR EAST.
RUC AND HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TYPES TODAY AND USED THESE
ALONG WITH NAM12 BLENDED FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN POWT PROCESS
FOR FORECAST GRIDS. LIQUID SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW AS EXPECTED
WITH AROUND 10 TO 1 AVERAGE. SHOULD SEE THESE IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR AND DGZ LOWERING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND STILL
EXECTED TO SWING OFF THE LAKE INTO NW AND NC INDIANA WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW. OVERALL INHERITED ACCUMS LOOK GOOD WITH REPORTS
RECEIVED ALREADY...TOTAL ACCUMS AROUND A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE NW
INDIANA TO SW MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW COMES TO AN
END.
HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG WITH WINDS JUST BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA HAS
KEPT NW AREAS FROM SEEING TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WARRANT KEEPING THE BZW IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME STRONGER GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH GRADIENT AS
WELL. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS INTACT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY EAST
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EASTWARD AND
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING
MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND ALEUTIANS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
US. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF
ALEUTIAN LOW AND ENTERING WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
SUNDAY...BUT THEN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TRANSITION PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AS THIS FIRST
SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE
COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS INVERTED TROF EXTENDING UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DEFORMATION AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SETUP FROM KSLO-KRZL-KAZO. THIS
WILL DRIFT LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. ABUNDANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND DEEP COLD AIR WILL FAVOR SNOW ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS. DRY
INTRUSION AND COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FAVOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS. ISOLD TSSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT AS THE
COOLING AND MIXING OCCUR, EXPECT TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009-018-
025>027-032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016-
017-022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4
PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ002-005-
016-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001-004-
015-024.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...LEWIS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT
AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME
SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
DECIDED TO START THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR TODAY A FEW HOURS EARLY
AS WE WERE GETTING REPORTS OF A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AND ICE
COVERING TREES AND POWER LINES IN MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY AREA. SOME SNOW AND ICE WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGE IMPACTS WEIGHED HEAVILY IN THE
DECISION TO START THE HEADLINES EARLY. ALSO...EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE
HANCOCK...DELAWARE...HENRY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS ELEVATED
SURFACES WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING ICE ACCUMULATION. FOR THE MID-
MORNING UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE RAIN
SNOW MIX THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE GRIDS. HAVE SEEN
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OVER WARREN AND PORTIONS OF
TIPPECANOE...FOUNTAIN AND VERMILLION COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT OF WEST
LAFAYETTE AROUND 1045 AM. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A
NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT
LEANED ON CONSENSUS.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS
FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT
BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD
COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING.
ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF
THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET.
WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH
HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO
A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY
SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A
LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON
CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX
SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED
CONSENSUS.
FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A
SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH
THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE
FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS
AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE
VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE
TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING
ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK
LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER ON THE HORIZON FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE BRINGING LOW CHANCE FOR POPS
LATE WEEKEND...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE A NICE WARMUP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. PRECIP WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING IN OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL KICK OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
EARLY STAGE WITH EXTENDED MODELS OFFERING A PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE WAVES TRACKING ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
PRECIP TYPE...AMOUNTS AND IMPACT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 241800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA TRACKING NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO WESTERN OHIO.
BULK OF THE STEADIER PRECIP HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN INTENSE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
BAND. THIS IS FALLING PREDOMINANTLY AS SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXING
WITH SLEET AND/OR RAIN. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE WELL DEFINED TROWAL AT 850MB WILL LIFT OUT ALONG
WITH IT. COLDER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.
AT KLAF...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE DEFORMATION BAND INFLUENCES SNOW RATES.
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN KHUF BY 19-20Z...AND KBMG AND KIND
BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. ONCE THE CHANGE TO SNOW TAKES PLACE...EXPECT
A PERIOD WITH SUB-IFR VISIBILITIES AND HEAVIER SNOWS INTO THE
EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH AND WAVE ALOFT ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING STORM.
WINDS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED IN EXCESS OF 20KTS AND GUSTS AT 30-35KTS
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK
TO NORTHWEST THEN W/NW BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>042-
045>049-051>054-060-061-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-
035-036-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1240 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INDIANA WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS
HAVE BEEN PICKING UP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH. KFWA ACTUALLY HAD A GUST TO 45 MPH. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT
BEEN REDUCED MUCH BELOW ONE HALF MILE YET AND THIS IS A CONCERN.
STILL EXPECTING HEAVIEST SNOW TO ROTATE INTO NW AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS. HAND ANALYSIS OF 15Z SFC MAP SHOWS SFC
LOW JUST WEST OF KSDF WITH AN ELONGATED AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING NORTHEAST ALONG OH RIVER. BEST PRESSURE FALLS NEAR CLE
WHICH SUPPORTS LATEST NAM AND MANY OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW REMAINS ALONG SHARP TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW OVER CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. WARNING SEEMS TO
HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL FOR NOW WITH ONLY QUESTION BEING IN THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST PCPN IN WILLIAMS COUNTY MAY REMAIN
ALL SNOW WITH RAIN SOUTH OF THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING DRY SLOT WORKING NORTH AND HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN
AND RADAR RETURNS WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
AMOUNTS WHERE NO HEADLINES IN EFFECT AND SNOW IS FALLING. THUS
PLAN TO KEEP WILLIAMS IN AN ADVISORY BUT WILL BE MONITORING THIS
AREA CLOSELY. SOME SLEET REPORTS BEING RECEIVED MAINLY ALONG BACK
EDGE OF MORE SOLID PCPN SHIELD WHERE DRY SLOT POKING IN. SEEING
SOME ADDITIONAL EVAP COOLING IN LOW LEVELS AND LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
SOME REFREEZING BEFORE REACHING GROUND. WILL BE MONITORING LATEST
12Z DATA CLOSELY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INTENSE SW OVR THE MID MS VALLEY W/ATTENDANT 990MB SFC REFLECTION
OVR NW TN DEEPENING RAPIDLY ERLY THIS MORNING. BROAD ARC OF
6MB/3HR PRES FALLS INTO SRN IN/SW OH WITHIN FOCUSED INTENSE WAA
ZONE SPURNING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAIN FM ERN IN IN SWD INTO NRN
KY. TIGHT/COHERENT NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE SPOT ON W/NWD REACH OF
CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...FURTHER
ACCENTUATED BY TRENDS FM RAP GUIDANCE SINCE 00Z...SUGGEST FEW CHGS
WARRANTED TO EXISTING HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WILL ADD STEUBEN AND
HILLSDALE TO CURRENT WARNING HEADLINE AND IN COORDINATION
W/ILX/IND/LOT UPGRADE NW IN ZONES TO BZW.
SFC LOW OVR NW TN WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD TDA...REACHING NR KCLE BY
00Z AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL PROLONG BOTH
STG GRADIENT WINDS AND MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS NW HALF. HWVR EWD WRAP OF
SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH ERN OH AND WWD PLACEMENT OF COUPLING W/NRN
JET ACRS THE UPR LAKES SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING AND EVEN SOME
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACRS WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. OTRWS
COUPLED JET WILL DRIVE INTENSE/DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ESP FM MID
MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN NW HALF W/SHARP EWD SNOW CUTOFF TO NOTHING
XPCD AS GENERAL STEADYSTATE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FM LOGANSPORT-
WARSAW-COLDWATER LINE. IT SHLD BE NOTED HWVR THAT RUC CONTS TO TREND
A BIT EWD OF THIS LINE AND IN CONCERT W/AGREEABLE NOD FM 06Z NAM
WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST. THAT SAID...BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY NW ZONES
COLLOCATED WITHIN INTENSE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND MOST INTENSE
GRADIENT FLW. XPC SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LIKELY HERE MID MORNING
THROUGH LT AFTN.
SECONDARY CONCERN LIES W/EWD PULLOUT OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
OVERNIGHT AND WRN BOUND OF LK ENHANCING MID LVL MSTR PLUME. FLW SLW
TO RELAX AND BLIZZARD WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED PENDING HOW THINGS
SHAKE OUT TDA AS SOME SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OVR FAR NW
ZONES YET DIMINISHES QUICKLY W/INLAND EXTENT. OTRWS STG GRADIENT FLW
REMAINS W/RISE COUPLET SLW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH OH OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHLD YIELD CONTD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LK ENHANCEMENT SPREADS
FURTHER INLAND THU AM AS LL FLW TURNS NWRLY AND XPC MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ADDNL ACCUM W/CONTD GUSTY NW WINDS NOT
DIMINISHING UNTIL AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
REST OF THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. CHANCE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
PRETTY LOW (AROUND 4 KFT) WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF BAND ORGANIZATION. DID
RAISE POPS JUST A LITTLE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DONT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...A HALF INCH AT BEST. ANY RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS
WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY
THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER A FAIRLY PLEASANT SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY. PRETTY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SET TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AND GOOD PV ADVECTION BUT EXACT TRACK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING RAIN
AS PTYPE IF ANYTHING OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT IF POSTFRONTAL
DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS POINT...AS ARE THERMAL PROFILES. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DEFORMATION AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SETUP FROM KSLO-KRZL-KAZO. THIS
WILL DRIFT LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. ABUNDANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND DEEP COLD AIR WILL FAVOR SNOW ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS. DRY
INTRUSION AND COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FAVOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS. ISOLD TSSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT AS THE
COOLING AND MIXING OCCUR, EXPECT TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016-
017-022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4
PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ018-025-032.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LEWIS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1225 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT
AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME
SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
DECIDED TO START THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR TODAY A FEW HOURS EARLY
AS WE WERE GETTING REPORTS OF A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AND ICE
COVERING TREES AND POWER LINES IN MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY AREA. SOME SNOW AND ICE WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGE IMPACTS WEIGHED HEAVILY IN THE
DECISION TO START THE HEADLINES EARLY. ALSO...EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE
HANCOCK...DELAWARE...HENRY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS ELEVATED
SURFACES WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING ICE ACCUMULATION. FOR THE MID-
MORNING UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE RAIN
SNOW MIX THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE GRIDS. HAVE SEEN
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OVER WARREN AND PORTIONS OF
TIPPECANOE...FOUNTAIN AND VERMILLION COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT OF WEST
LAFAYETTE AROUND 1045 AM. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A
NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT
LEANED ON CONSENSUS.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS
FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT
BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD
COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING.
ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF
THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET.
WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH
HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO
A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY
SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A
LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON
CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX
SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED
CONSENSUS.
FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A
SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH
THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE
FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS
AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE
VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE
TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING
ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK
LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS
INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO
MODEL INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 241800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA TRACKING NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO WESTERN OHIO.
BULK OF THE STEADIER PRECIP HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN INTENSE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
BAND. THIS IS FALLING PREDOMINANTLY AS SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXING
WITH SLEET AND/OR RAIN. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE WELL DEFINED TROWAL AT 850MB WILL LIFT OUT ALONG
WITH IT. COLDER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.
AT KLAF...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE DEFORMATION BAND INFLUENCES SNOW RATES.
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN KHUF BY 19-20Z...AND KBMG AND KIND
BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. ONCE THE CHANGE TO SNOW TAKES PLACE...EXPECT
A PERIOD WITH SUB-IFR VISIBILITIES AND HEAVIER SNOWS INTO THE
EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH AND WAVE ALOFT ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING STORM.
WINDS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED IN EXCESS OF 20KTS AND GUSTS AT 30-35KTS
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK
TO NORTHWEST THEN W/NW BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>042-
045>049-051>054-060-061-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-
035-036-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT
AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME
SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
DECIDED TO START THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR TODAY A FEW HOURS EARLY
AS WE WERE GETTING REPORTS OF A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AND ICE
COVERING TREES AND POWER LINES IN MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY AREA. SOME SNOW AND ICE WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGE IMPACTS WEIGHED HEAVILY IN THE
DECISION TO START THE HEADLINES EARLY. ALSO...EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE
HANCOCK...DELAWARE...HENRY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS ELEVATED
SURFACES WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING ICE ACCUMULATION. FOR THE MID-
MORNING UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE RAIN
SNOW MIX THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE GRIDS. HAVE SEEN
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OVER WARREN AND PORTIONS OF
TIPPECANOE...FOUNTAIN AND VERMILLION COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT OF WEST
LAFAYETTE AROUND 1045 AM. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A
NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT
LEANED ON CONSENSUS.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS
FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT
BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD
COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING.
ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF
THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET.
WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH
HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO
A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY
SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A
LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON
CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX
SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED
CONSENSUS.
FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A
SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH
THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE
FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS
AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE
VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE
TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING
ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK
LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS
INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO
MODEL INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
TRANSITIONED KLAF TO ALL SNOW AND INTRODUCED A RA/SN MIX AT KHUF.
POSSIBLE THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN A TOUCH FASTER THIS
AFTERNOON AT KIND AND HIGHLIGHTED AS WELL.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH IFR CEILINGS RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. KLAF MAY START OUT AS MVFR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AND
THEN IFR OR LIFR AFTER THAT AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON KHUF AND CLOSER TO 22Z AT KIND
AND KBMG.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
INDIANA BY 18Z AND TO NORTHERN OHIO BY 00Z AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RAIN
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLAF...
OTHERWISE LIGHTER SNOW WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER SITES. MODELS INDICATE SNOW
WILL LIGHTEN ALL AREAS SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
TO 3 MILES MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT KLAF
WITH LESSER GUSTS AT THE OTHER SITES. WINDS MAY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KBMG
MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES BY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>042-
045>049-051>054-060-061-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-
035-036-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1038 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INDIANA WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS
HAVE BEEN PICKING UP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH. KFWA ACTUALLY HAD A GUST TO 45 MPH. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT
BEEN REDUCED MUCH BELOW ONE HALF MILE YET AND THIS IS A CONCERN.
STILL EXPECTING HEAVIEST SNOW TO ROTATE INTO NW AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS. HAND ANALYSIS OF 15Z SFC MAP SHOWS SFC
LOW JUST WEST OF KSDF WITH AN ELONGATED AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING NORTHEAST ALONG OH RIVER. BEST PRESSURE FALLS NEAR CLE
WHICH SUPPORTS LATEST NAM AND MANY OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE OUTPUT.
MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW REMAINS ALONG SHARP TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW OVER CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. WARNING SEEMS TO
HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL FOR NOW WITH ONLY QUESTION BEING IN THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST PCPN IN WILLIAMS COUNTY MAY REMAIN
ALL SNOW WITH RAIN SOUTH OF THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING DRY SLOT WORKING NORTH AND HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN
AND RADAR RETURNS WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
AMOUNTS WHERE NO HEADLINES IN EFFECT AND SNOW IS FALLING. THUS
PLAN TO KEEP WILLIAMS IN AN ADVISORY BUT WILL BE MONITORING THIS
AREA CLOSELY. SOME SLEET REPORTS BEING RECEIVED MAINLY ALONG BACK
EDGE OF MORE SOLID PCPN SHIELD WHERE DRY SLOT POKING IN. SEEING
SOME ADDITIONAL EVAP COOLING IN LOW LEVELS AND LIKELY ALLOWING FOR
SOME REFREEZING BEFORE REACHING GROUND. WILL BE MONITORING LATEST
12Z DATA CLOSELY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INTENSE SW OVR THE MID MS VALLEY W/ATTENDANT 990MB SFC REFLECTION
OVR NW TN DEEPENING RAPIDLY ERLY THIS MORNING. BROAD ARC OF
6MB/3HR PRES FALLS INTO SRN IN/SW OH WITHIN FOCUSED INTENSE WAA
ZONE SPURNING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAIN FM ERN IN IN SWD INTO NRN
KY. TIGHT/COHERENT NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE SPOT ON W/NWD REACH OF
CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...FURTHER
ACCENTUATED BY TRENDS FM RAP GUIDANCE SINCE 00Z...SUGGEST FEW CHGS
WARRANTED TO EXISTING HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WILL ADD STEUBEN AND
HILLSDALE TO CURRENT WARNING HEADLINE AND IN COORDINATION
W/ILX/IND/LOT UPGRADE NW IN ZONES TO BZW.
SFC LOW OVR NW TN WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD TDA...REACHING NR KCLE BY
00Z AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL PROLONG BOTH
STG GRADIENT WINDS AND MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS NW HALF. HWVR EWD WRAP OF
SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH ERN OH AND WWD PLACEMENT OF COUPLING W/NRN
JET ACRS THE UPR LAKES SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING AND EVEN SOME
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACRS WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. OTRWS
COUPLED JET WILL DRIVE INTENSE/DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ESP FM MID
MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN NW HALF W/SHARP EWD SNOW CUTOFF TO NOTHING
XPCD AS GENERAL STEADYSTATE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FM LOGANSPORT-
WARSAW-COLDWATER LINE. IT SHLD BE NOTED HWVR THAT RUC CONTS TO TREND
A BIT EWD OF THIS LINE AND IN CONCERT W/AGREEABLE NOD FM 06Z NAM
WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST. THAT SAID...BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY NW ZONES
COLLOCATED WITHIN INTENSE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND MOST INTENSE
GRADIENT FLW. XPC SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LIKELY HERE MID MORNING
THROUGH LT AFTN.
SECONDARY CONCERN LIES W/EWD PULLOUT OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
OVERNIGHT AND WRN BOUND OF LK ENHANCING MID LVL MSTR PLUME. FLW SLW
TO RELAX AND BLIZZARD WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED PENDING HOW THINGS
SHAKE OUT TDA AS SOME SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OVR FAR NW
ZONES YET DIMINISHES QUICKLY W/INLAND EXTENT. OTRWS STG GRADIENT FLW
REMAINS W/RISE COUPLET SLW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH OH OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHLD YIELD CONTD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LK ENHANCEMENT SPREADS
FURTHER INLAND THU AM AS LL FLW TURNS NWRLY AND XPC MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ADDNL ACCUM W/CONTD GUSTY NW WINDS NOT
DIMINISHING UNTIL AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
REST OF THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. CHANCE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
PRETTY LOW (AROUND 4 KFT) WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF BAND ORGANIZATION. DID
RAISE POPS JUST A LITTLE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DONT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...A HALF INCH AT BEST. ANY RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS
WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY
THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER A FAIRLY PLEASANT SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY. PRETTY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SET TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AND GOOD PV ADVECTION BUT EXACT TRACK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING RAIN
AS PTYPE IF ANYTHING OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT IF POSTFRONTAL
DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS POINT...AS ARE THERMAL PROFILES. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAPID DOWNHILL IN FLIGHT CONDS HAS COMMENCED W/ARRIVAL
OF PCPN SHIELD W/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. DIABATIC
COOLING WINNING OUT ATTM INVOF KFWA W/FZRA NOTED. CONCURRENT TRENDS
IN RAP ALG W/06Z NAM QUITE DISCONCERTING W/EWD SHIFT OF RAIN/SNOW
LINE AND LOOKS LIKE A FUNCTION OF BOTH DIABATIC/ADIABATIC PROCESSES
GOING ON IN BNDRY LYR THERMAL FIELDS OF WHICH LOOK OVER ESTIMATED IN
00Z GUIDANCE SUITE AS DENOTED IN RAPIDLY DWINDLING MELTING LYR PER
DUAL POL DATA. WILL MAKE SOME GRADUATED CHGS TO KFWA TERMINAL. OTRWS
PRIOR KSBN FCST LOOKS SOLID W/NR BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY LT THIS AFTN
AND EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016-
017-022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4
PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ018-025-032.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT
AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME
SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A
NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT
LEANED ON CONSENSUS.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS
FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT
BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD
COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING.
ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF
THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET.
WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH
HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO
A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY
SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A
LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON
CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX
SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED
CONSENSUS.
FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A
SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH
THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE
FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS
AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE
VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE
TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING
ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK
LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS
INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO
MODEL INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
TRANSITIONED KLAF TO ALL SNOW AND INTRODUCED A RA/SN MIX AT KHUF.
POSSIBLE THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN A TOUCH FASTER THIS
AFTERNOON AT KIND AND HIGHLIGHTED AS WELL.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH IFR CEILINGS RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. KLAF MAY START OUT AS MVFR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AND
THEN IFR OR LIFR AFTER THAT AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON KHUF AND CLOSER TO 22Z AT KIND
AND KBMG.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
INDIANA BY 18Z AND TO NORTHERN OHIO BY 00Z AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RAIN
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLAF...
OTHERWISE LIGHTER SNOW WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER SITES. MODELS INDICATE SNOW
WILL LIGHTEN ALL AREAS SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
TO 3 MILES MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT KLAF
WITH LESSER GUSTS AT THE OTHER SITES. WINDS MAY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KBMG
MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES BY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ037>040-045>047-051>054-060-061-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-035-036-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR INZ028.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
642 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INDIANA WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INTENSE SW OVR THE MID MS VALLEY W/ATTENDANT 990MB SFC REFLECTION
OVR NW TN DEEPENING RAPIDLY ERLY THIS MORNING. BROAD ARC OF
6MB/3HR PRES FALLS INTO SRN IN/SW OH WITHIN FOCUSED INTENSE WAA
ZONE SPURNING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAIN FM ERN IN IN SWD INTO NRN
KY. TIGHT/COHERENT NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE SPOT ON W/NWD REACH OF
CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...FURTHER
ACCENTUATED BY TRENDS FM RAP GUIDANCE SINCE 00Z...SUGGEST FEW CHGS
WARRANTED TO EXISTING HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WILL ADD STEUBEN AND
HILLSDALE TO CURRENT WARNING HEADLINE AND IN COORDINATION
W/ILX/IND/LOT UPGRADE NW IN ZONES TO BZW.
SFC LOW OVR NW TN WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD TDA...REACHING NR KCLE BY
00Z AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL PROLONG BOTH
STG GRADIENT WINDS AND MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS NW HALF. HWVR EWD WRAP OF
SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH ERN OH AND WWD PLACEMENT OF COUPLING W/NRN
JET ACRS THE UPR LAKES SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING AND EVEN SOME
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACRS WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. OTRWS
COUPLED JET WILL DRIVE INTENSE/DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ESP FM MID
MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN NW HALF W/SHARP EWD SNOW CUTOFF TO NOTHING
XPCD AS GENERAL STEADYSTATE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FM LOGANSPORT-
WARSAW-COLDWATER LINE. IT SHLD BE NOTED HWVR THAT RUC CONTS TO TREND
A BIT EWD OF THIS LINE AND IN CONCERT W/AGREEABLE NOD FM 06Z NAM
WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST. THAT SAID...BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY NW ZONES
COLLOCATED WITHIN INTENSE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND MOST INTENSE
GRADIENT FLW. XPC SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LIKELY HERE MID MORNING
THROUGH LT AFTN.
SECONDARY CONCERN LIES W/EWD PULLOUT OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
OVERNIGHT AND WRN BOUND OF LK ENHANCING MID LVL MSTR PLUME. FLW SLW
TO RELAX AND BLIZZARD WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED PENDING HOW THINGS
SHAKE OUT TDA AS SOME SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OVR FAR NW
ZONES YET DIMINISHES QUICKLY W/INLAND EXTENT. OTRWS STG GRADIENT FLW
REMAINS W/RISE COUPLET SLW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH OH OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHLD YIELD CONTD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LK ENHANCEMENT SPREADS
FURTHER INLAND THU AM AS LL FLW TURNS NWRLY AND XPC MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ADDNL ACCUM W/CONTD GUSTY NW WINDS NOT
DIMINISHING UNTIL AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
REST OF THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. CHANCE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
PRETTY LOW (AROUND 4 KFT) WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF BAND ORGANIZATION. DID
RAISE POPS JUST A LITTLE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DONT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...A HALF INCH AT BEST. ANY RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS
WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY
THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER A FAIRLY PLEASANT SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY. PRETTY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SET TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AND GOOD PV ADVECTION BUT EXACT TRACK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING RAIN
AS PTYPE IF ANYTHING OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT IF POSTFRONTAL
DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS POINT...AS ARE THERMAL PROFILES. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAPID DOWNHILL IN FLIGHT CONDS HAS COMMENCED W/ARRIVAL
OF PCPN SHIELD W/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. DIABATIC
COOLING WINNING OUT ATTM INVOF KFWA W/FZRA NOTED. CONCURRENT TRENDS
IN RAP ALG W/06Z NAM QUITE DISCONCERTING W/EWD SHIFT OF RAIN/SNOW
LINE AND LOOKS LIKE A FUNCTION OF BOTH DIABATIC/ADIABATIC PROCESSES
GOING ON IN BNDRY LYR THERMAL FIELDS OF WHICH LOOK OVER ESTIMATED IN
00Z GUIDANCE SUITE AS DENOTED IN RAPIDLY DWINDLING MELTING LYR PER
DUAL POL DATA. WILL MAKE SOME GRADUATED CHGS TO KFWA TERMINAL. OTRWS
PRIOR KSBN FCST LOOKS SOLID W/NR BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY LT THIS AFTN
AND EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016-
017-022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4
PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ018-025-032.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ001.
LM...STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT
AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME
SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A
NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT
LEANED ON CONSENSUS.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS
FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT
BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD
COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING.
ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF
THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET.
WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH
HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO
A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY
SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A
LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON
CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX
SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED
CONSENSUS.
FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A
SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH
THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE
FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS
AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE
VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE
TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING
ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK
LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS
INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO
MODEL INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240900Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH IFR CEILINGS RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. KLAF MAY START OUT AS MVFR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AND
THEN IFR OR LIFR AFTER THAT AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON KHUF AND CLOSER TO 22Z AT KIND
AND KBMG.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
INDIANA BY 18Z AND TO NORTHERN OHIO BY 00Z AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RAIN
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLAF...
OTHERWISE LIGHTER SNOW WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER SITES. MODELS INDICATE SNOW
WILL LIGHTEN ALL AREAS SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
TO 3 MILES MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT KLAF
WITH LESSER GUSTS AT THE OTHER SITES. WINDS MAY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KBMG
MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES BY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ037>040-045>047-051>054-060-061-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-035-036-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR INZ028.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
547 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INDIANA WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INTENSE SW OVR THE MID MS VALLEY W/ATTENDANT 990MB SFC REFLECTION
OVR NW TN DEEPENING RAPIDLY ERLY THIS MORNING. BROAD ARC OF
6MB/3HR PRES FALLS INTO SRN IN/SW OH WITHIN FOCUSED INTENSE WAA
ZONE SPURNING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAIN FM ERN IN IN SWD INTO NRN
KY. TIGHT/COHERENT NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE SPOT ON W/NWD REACH OF
CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...FURTHER
ACCENTUATED BY TRENDS FM RAP GUIDANCE SINCE 00Z...SUGGEST FEW CHGS
WARRANTED TO EXISTING HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WILL ADD STEUBEN AND
HILLSDALE TO CURRENT WARNING HEADLINE AND IN COORDINATION
W/ILX/IND/LOT UPGRADE NW IN ZONES TO BZW.
SFC LOW OVR NW TN WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD TDA...REACHING NR KCLE BY
00Z AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL PROLONG BOTH
STG GRADIENT WINDS AND MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS NW HALF. HWVR EWD WRAP OF
SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH ERN OH AND WWD PLACEMENT OF COUPLING W/NRN
JET ACRS THE UPR LAKES SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING AND EVEN SOME
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACRS WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. OTRWS
COUPLED JET WILL DRIVE INTENSE/DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ESP FM MID
MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN NW HALF W/SHARP EWD SNOW CUTOFF TO NOTHING
XPCD AS GENERAL STEADYSTATE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FM LOGANSPORT-
WARSAW-COLDWATER LINE. IT SHLD BE NOTED HWVR THAT RUC CONTS TO TREND
A BIT EWD OF THIS LINE AND IN CONCERT W/AGREEABLE NOD FM 06Z NAM
WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST. THAT SAID...BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY NW ZONES
COLLOCATED WITHIN INTENSE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND MOST INTENSE
GRADIENT FLW. XPC SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LIKELY HERE MID MORNING
THROUGH LT AFTN.
SECONDARY CONCERN LIES W/EWD PULLOUT OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE
OVERNIGHT AND WRN BOUND OF LK ENHANCING MID LVL MSTR PLUME. FLW SLW
TO RELAX AND BLIZZARD WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED PENDING HOW THINGS
SHAKE OUT TDA AS SOME SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OVR FAR NW
ZONES YET DIMINISHES QUICKLY W/INLAND EXTENT. OTRWS STG GRADIENT FLW
REMAINS W/RISE COUPLET SLW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH OH OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHLD YIELD CONTD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LK ENHANCEMENT SPREADS
FURTHER INLAND THU AM AS LL FLW TURNS NWRLY AND XPC MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ADDNL ACCUM W/CONTD GUSTY NW WINDS NOT
DIMINISHING UNTIL AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
REST OF THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. CHANCE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
PRETTY LOW (AROUND 4 KFT) WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF BAND ORGANIZATION. DID
RAISE POPS JUST A LITTLE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DONT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...A HALF INCH AT BEST. ANY RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS
WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY
THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER A FAIRLY PLEASANT SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY. PRETTY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SET TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AND GOOD PV ADVECTION BUT EXACT TRACK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING RAIN
AS PTYPE IF ANYTHING OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT IF POSTFRONTAL
DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS POINT...AS ARE THERMAL PROFILES. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAPID DOWNHILL SLIDE XPCD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS INTENSE
LOW PRES OVR WRN KY SHIFTS NEWD TO KTOL BY EVENING. BROAD WAA
INDUCED PRECIP SHIELD IS SPREADING QUICKLY NWD AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE TERMINALS 09-12Z AS FLIGHT CONDS LWR TO IFR. RAIN/SNOW LINE XPCD
TO LAY OUT INBTWN W/MOD-HVY SNOW AT KSBN VS RAIN AT KFWA THROUGH ABT
00Z. THEREAFTER CHG OVR XPCD AT KFWA. HWVR GREATER WX RELATED
IMPACTS XPCD INVOF KSBN W/HVY SNOW AND GRADIENT GUSTS AOA 35KTS THIS
AFTN. DEFORMATION INDUCED SNOW...ALBEIT LIGHTER...WILL PERSIST OVR
KSBN TERMINAL OVERNIGHT W/STG NW SFC WINDS CONTG.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016-
017-022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4
PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ018-025-032.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ001.
LM...STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
442 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT
AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME
SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A
NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT
LEANED ON CONSENSUS.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS
FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT
BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD
COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING.
ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF
THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET.
WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH
HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO
A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY
SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A
LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON
CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX
SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED
CONSENSUS.
FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A
SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH
THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE
FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS
AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE
VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE
TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING
ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK
LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS
INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO
MODEL INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240900Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
TWEAKED KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RADAR AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS RAIN SHIELD WILL BE OVER THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT PERHAPS LAF BY ISSUANCE TIME. ALSO...TRENDS
SUGGEST VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DETERIORATE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LATER THAN 12Z.
THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LAF SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE THE RAIN
CHANGE TO SNOW OR A MIX. KEPT 15Z AS A START TIME FOR THE MIX THERE
WITH ALL SNOW BY 18Z. HUF SHOULD CHANGE OVER AFTER 18Z AND IND AND
BMG SHOULD NOT CHANGEOVER UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IS NOT GREAT AS A SMALL
ERROR IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FELT IT WOULD BE PRECIPITATING OVER A MAJORITY OF THE TIME
AND DID NOT TRY AND GET CUTE WITH TIMING ANY BRIEF DRY PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING A FEW
KNOTS TODAY AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT LAF WITH LESSER GUSTS
AT THE OTHER SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ037>040-045>047-051>054-060-061-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-035-036-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR INZ028.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK/JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
534 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LITTLE OF CONCERN TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF CLOUDS. MID LEVEL VORT LOBE
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN THE MID MS VALLEY BUT ANY ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION IS ALREADY PAST IA. UPSTREAM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SHORT WAVE
IS PRODUCING A FAINT REFLECTION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND WHILE THE
FORCING WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE AS IT REACHES IA EARLY FRI MORNING
STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. LIKELY
JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE
STRATUS TRENDS WITH PATCHY HOLES PASSING BY THIS EVENING...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGESTING MORE GENERAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL RIDGE CROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STAYED A TOUCH
OVER MOS WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT FOR AWHILE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
FEW CONCERNS IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. HRRR AND OTHER
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH A PORTION
OF FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BREAK UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL MODERATE AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TRANSITIONS EAST INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE H850
TEMPERATURES RISING TO +11C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH MIXING AT LEAST
TAPPING INTO 8 TO 10C AIR BY LATE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH DURING THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARING THE I80 CORRIDOR...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
MILD START TO THE DAY WILL HELP HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35
TO 40 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DISPLACE THE SLIGHT COLD
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RENEWED WARM
UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...MODELS CONTINUE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. TODAYS CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE TRACK
MAY BE FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO MODEL RUNS...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ADVERSE WINTER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY AND
MODELS INHERENTLY STRUGGLE TO REACH A CORRECT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME
RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE MORE
NORTHWEST DRIFT IN THE MODELS THE PAST 12 HOURS THOUGH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A MORE WOUND UP STORM THAN
THE EURO AT THIS TIME DUE TO FASTER INGESTION OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR...IT ALSO HAS STRONGER WINDS AND MORE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AXIS/STRENGTH
/TRACK IS CURRENTLY ALSO POOR. THE GENERAL TREND FOR BOTH THE
GFS/EURO OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY. WILL MENTION IN UPDATED HWO THIS AFTERNOON
AND PASS ONTO SUCCEEDING SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
525 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
The main concern remains the potent storm system over our region
this morning. This system contains a variety of potential hazards,
including heavy snow, strong winds, heavy rain, and thunder. The
heavy rain and thunder appear to be the least significant at this
time. The main focus of this forecast package is on the winter
weather and strong wind potential.
As of 08z, the surface low was deepening rather rapidly along the
Tennessee/Kentucky border near khop. RAP model data indicated the
central pressure fell about 10 mb between 00z and 08z. A strong
northerly low-level jet exists on the northwest side of the low.
Winds aloft are forecast near 50 knots at 1000 feet agl over se
Missouri this morning. There have been a few reports of 40 knot
gusts in southeast MO overnight, including the kpof asos site.
Model guidance indicates these strong wind fields will expand
northeast across southern IL this morning. Although winds aloft
will begin to weaken as they spread east this afternoon, lapse
rates will steepen in the cold advection pattern. Due to more
efficient momentum transfer/mixing, the Wind Advisory may need to
be expanded further east across KY and into southwest IN today.
Widespread moderate rain overnight has begun to change to snow in
the hilly terrain of se Missouri. Around 08z, snow was reported
north and west of kpof in Wayne and nw Butler Counties. At the
same time, a mid-level dry slot has begun to work north across the
Bootheel of Missouri. It appears the dry slot will move north-
northeast in tandem with the strong mid-level low. A band of
moderate to heavy precip has been organizing on the northwest side
of the dry slot. The potential for a band of heavy snowfall exists
under this deformation band. Mesoscale discussion 136 from the SPC
contains the details on this heavy snow threat.
A Winter Storm Warning will be issued for small parts of se
Missouri and srn Illinois, where the deformation zone is expected
to slowly organize through mid-morning. This area is generally
along and northwest of a line from kcgi to kmvn. Hilly terrain in
this area will provide a little extra orographic lift, along with
colder temps at higher elevations. Although surface and pavement
temps will be at or above freezing, snowfall rates around an inch
per hour for several hours should overcome the ground warmth. The
Winter Weather Advisory will continue for the rest of southeast
MO and southern IL, where some bursts of snow are possible in the
more unstable air within the dry slot. One last sidenote, the
Winter Storm Warning will replace the Wind Advisory, since the
wind hazard is covered by the warning.
The main area of precip will exit our region by early this
afternoon, but areas of lighter precip will continue to wrap
south-southeastward around the departing occluded low through
tonight. Most of this wrap-around precip will be along and east of
the Mississippi River, and mainly in the form of snow. However,
surface temps are forecast to remain above freezing for most of
the night. Any additional snow amounts are forecast to be less
than one-half inch and mainly in southwest IN and the Pennyrile
region. Therefore, the winter headlines will not be extended into
the night with this forecast package.
There may be some lingering light snow showers in the EVV area
and Pennyrile region of west KY on Thursday. Otherwise, relatively
quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday as surface high
pressure builds east across our region. Forecast highs will be
lowered a notch for Thursday based on anticipated snow cover in
some areas. In addition, forecast 850 mb temps of minus 10 do not
support highs in the 40s, especially with the anticipated cloud
cover. With increasing sun and moderating 850 mb temps on Friday,
highs will be in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
Above average confidence in the long term.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry through Sunday. With the approach and passage of a
frontal system Sunday night, precipitation chances will be small
due to a lack of moisture.
High pressure in the wake of the front will keep the region dry
through at least Monday, and maybe even Monday night. Models not in
good agreement regarding the results of a cold front dropping
southward out of the northern plains Monday into Monday evening. The
GFS brings the front across our CWA dry while the ECMWF brings the
front into our CWA, then stalls it out E-W. After midnight Monday
night the ECMWF brings a swath of QPF quickly eastward along the
boundary across our CWA while the GFS continues to be dry. With so
much disparity, decided to keep it dry Monday night.
Models show the aforementioned frontal boundary lifting back to the
north as a warm front on Tuesday. Again the GFS remains dry with the
fropa while the ECMWF cranks out precipitation for basically the
entire area. Decided to split the difference in this period and go
with small pops.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the long term period,
and thankfully any precipitation that falls should be of the liquid
variety.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 525 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
IFR cigs/vsbys will remain prevalent through today as a strong storm
system and its associated precipitation impact the taf sites.
Conditions will improve this evening as winds become northwest and
bring drier air. Rain will transition to snow from west to east,
starting at kcgi early this morning and finally changing near KOWB
and KEVV this afternoon. Sustained winds at or above 15 kts will
continue until tonight when the system exits to the east. Gusts will
be around 30 knots today.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
ILZ075>078-080>086-088-089-092-093.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ076>078-082-083-
085>094.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075-080-
081-084.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ100-107>112-114.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-
087.
IN...NONE.
KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>006.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
The main concern remains the potent storm system over our region
this morning. This system contains a variety of potential hazards,
including heavy snow, strong winds, heavy rain, and thunder. The
heavy rain and thunder appear to be the least significant at this
time. The main focus of this forecast package is on the winter
weather and strong wind potential.
As of 08z, the surface low was deepening rather rapidly along the
Tennessee/Kentucky border near khop. RAP model data indicated the
central pressure fell about 10 mb between 00z and 08z. A strong
northerly low-level jet exists on the northwest side of the low.
Winds aloft are forecast near 50 knots at 1000 feet agl over se
Missouri this morning. There have been a few reports of 40 knot
gusts in southeast MO overnight, including the kpof asos site.
Model guidance indicates these strong wind fields will expand
northeast across southern IL this morning. Although winds aloft
will begin to weaken as they spread east this afternoon, lapse
rates will steepen in the cold advection pattern. Due to more
efficient momentum transfer/mixing, the Wind Advisory may need to
be expanded further east across KY and into southwest IN today.
Widespread moderate rain overnight has begun to change to snow in
the hilly terrain of se Missouri. Around 08z, snow was reported
north and west of kpof in Wayne and nw Butler Counties. At the
same time, a mid-level dry slot has begun to work north across the
Bootheel of Missouri. It appears the dry slot will move north-
northeast in tandem with the strong mid-level low. A band of
moderate to heavy precip has been organizing on the northwest side
of the dry slot. The potential for a band of heavy snowfall exists
under this deformation band. Mesoscale discussion 136 from the SPC
contains the details on this heavy snow threat.
A Winter Storm Warning will be issued for small parts of se
Missouri and srn Illinois, where the deformation zone is expected
to slowly organize through mid-morning. This area is generally
along and northwest of a line from kcgi to kmvn. Hilly terrain in
this area will provide a little extra orographic lift, along with
colder temps at higher elevations. Although surface and pavement
temps will be at or above freezing, snowfall rates around an inch
per hour for several hours should overcome the ground warmth. The
Winter Weather Advisory will continue for the rest of southeast
MO and southern IL, where some bursts of snow are possible in the
more unstable air within the dry slot. One last sidenote, the
Winter Storm Warning will replace the Wind Advisory, since the
wind hazard is covered by the warning.
The main area of precip will exit our region by early this
afternoon, but areas of lighter precip will continue to wrap
south-southeastward around the departing occluded low through
tonight. Most of this wrap-around precip will be along and east of
the Mississippi River, and mainly in the form of snow. However,
surface temps are forecast to remain above freezing for most of
the night. Any additional snow amounts are forecast to be less
than one-half inch and mainly in southwest IN and the Pennyrile
region. Therefore, the winter headlines will not be extended into
the night with this forecast package.
There may be some lingering light snow showers in the EVV area
and Pennyrile region of west KY on Thursday. Otherwise, relatively
quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday as surface high
pressure builds east across our region. Forecast highs will be
lowered a notch for Thursday based on anticipated snow cover in
some areas. In addition, forecast 850 mb temps of minus 10 do not
support highs in the 40s, especially with the anticipated cloud
cover. With increasing sun and moderating 850 mb temps on Friday,
highs will be in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
Above average confidence in the long term.
High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry through Sunday. With the approach and passage of a
frontal system Sunday night, precipitation chances will be small
due to a lack of moisture.
High pressure in the wake of the front will keep the region dry
through at least Monday, and maybe even Monday night. Models not in
good agreement regarding the results of a cold front dropping
southward out of the northern plains Monday into Monday evening. The
GFS brings the front across our CWA dry while the ECMWF brings the
front into our CWA, then stalls it out E-W. After midnight Monday
night the ECMWF brings a swath of QPF quickly eastward along the
boundary across our CWA while the GFS continues to be dry. With so
much disparity, decided to keep it dry Monday night.
Models show the aforementioned frontal boundary lifting back to the
north as a warm front on Tuesday. Again the GFS remains dry with the
fropa while the ECMWF cranks out precipitation for basically the
entire area. Decided to split the difference in this period and go
with small pops.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the long term period,
and thankfully any precipitation that falls should be of the liquid
variety.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Expect MVFR and IFR cigs/vsbys through the period with perhaps
some LIFR cigs as a strong storm system and its associated
precipitation impact the Quad State area. Conditions will
deteriorate this morning as northerly winds gradually increase and
become gusty. Rain will transition to snow from west to east,
starting in SE MO in the morning and finally changing near KOWB
and KEVV by the evening. Snow and sustained winds AOA 15 kts will
continue until Wednesday night when the system exits to the east.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
ILZ075>078-080>086-088-089-092-093.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ076>078-082-083-
085>094.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075-080-
081-084.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ100-107>112-114.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-
087.
IN...NONE.
KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>006.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BP2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1155 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WE`LL SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TODAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE
REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1155 AM...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM SLOWLY ABOVE FREEZING.
PREV DISC...
945 AM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD AIR IS SLOW TO
ERODE...EVEN SLOWER THEN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. I OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS COASTAL
MAINE.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
COLD AIR HOLDING IN TOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A BRIEF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTLINE AS WELL...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS.
FREEZING RAIN NOW OCCURRING FROM PORTSMOUTH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PORTLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. WISCASSET AND ROCKLAND MAY
CHANGEOVER AROUND 13Z.
THE LATEST HRRR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DELAY
IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER/SURFACE WARMING. THIS NEW ADVISORY WILL BE
IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
ACROSS INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL.
PREV DISC...
A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER MAIND
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE
REGION ALOFT. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST INITIAL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY ALONG THE COAST
AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR/ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT.
FURTHER INLAND...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AFTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES.
ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500 FEET MAY HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN THE
LONGEST WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF
ICE ACCRETION.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES IN THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES PLACING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TODAY.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAIN...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES UPSTATE NEW
YORK. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR. HIGH PWAT
AND POLEWARD WIND VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN A HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS EVENT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FORMING LATE
AT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
PRECIP TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST.
THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON AN INCREASING MIXING LAYER AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW READINGS
TO SOAR INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH IN PORTLAND
FOR THURSDAY IS 51 WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS SET IN 1984 AND 1985.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE NAM
MOS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SEEMS
MORE REASONABLE. THE FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THEN
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST AS
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST AREAS WILL DETEORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MIXED
PRECIPITATION WITH ICING EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND
SHEAR TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BUT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER SOME SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 3.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-020>022.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NHZ005>011-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
951 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WE`LL SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TODAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE
REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD AIR IS SLOW TO
ERODE...EVEN SLOWER THEN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. I OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS COASTAL
MAINE.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
COLD AIR HOLDING IN TOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A BRIEF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTLINE AS WELL...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS.
FREEZING RAIN NOW OCCURRING FROM PORTSMOUTH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PORTLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. WISCASSET AND ROCKLAND MAY
CHANGEOVER AROUND 13Z.
THE LATEST HRRR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DELAY
IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER/SURFACE WARMING. THIS NEW ADVISORY WILL BE
IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
ACROSS INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL.
PREV DISC...
A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER MAIND
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE
REGION ALOFT. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST INITIAL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY ALONG THE COAST
AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR/ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT.
FURTHER INLAND...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AFTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES.
ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500 FEET MAY HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN THE
LONGEST WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF
ICE ACCRETION.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES IN THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES PLACING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TODAY.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAIN...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES UPSTATE NEW
YORK. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR. HIGH PWAT
AND POLEWARD WIND VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN A HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS EVENT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FORMING LATE
AT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
PRECIP TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST.
THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON AN INCREASING MIXING LAYER AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW READINGS
TO SOAR INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH IN PORTLAND
FOR THURSDAY IS 51 WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS SET IN 1984 AND 1985.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE NAM
MOS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SEEMS
MORE REASONABLE. THE FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THEN
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST AS
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST AREAS WILL DETEORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MIXED
PRECIPITATION WITH ICING EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND
SHEAR TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BUT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER SOME SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 3.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NHZ005>011-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ012>014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
712 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX TODAY AS WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
COLD AIR HOLDING IN TOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A BRIEF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTLINE AS WELL...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS.
FREEZING RAIN NOW OCCURRING FROM PORTSMOUTH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PORTLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. WISCASSET AND ROCKLAND MAY
CHANGEOVER AROUND 13Z.
THE LATEST HRRR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DELAY
IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER/SURFACE WARMING. THIS NEW ADVISORY WILL BE
IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
ACROSS INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL.
PREV DISC...
A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER MAIND
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE
REGION ALOFT. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST INITIAL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY ALONG THE COAST
AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR/ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT.
FURTHER INLAND...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AFTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES.
ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500 FEET MAY HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN THE
LONGEST WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF
ICE ACCRETION.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES IN THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES PLACING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TODAY.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAIN...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES UPSTATE NEW
YORK. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR. HIGH PWAT
AND POLEWARD WIND VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN A HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS EVENT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FORMING LATE
AT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
PRECIP TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST.
THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON AN INCREASING MIXING LAYER AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW READINGS
TO SOAR INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH IN PORTLAND
FOR THURSDAY IS 51 WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS SET IN 1984 AND 1985.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE NAM
MOS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SEEMS
MORE REASONABLE. THE FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THEN
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST AS
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST AREAS WILL DETEORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MIXED
PRECIPITATION WITH ICING EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND
SHEAR TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BUT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER SOME SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 3.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NHZ005>011-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ012>014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS
HYDROLOGY...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
531 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX TODAY AS WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
COLD AIR HOLDING IN TOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A BRIEF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTLINE AS WELL...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS.
THE LATEST HRRR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DELAY
IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER/SURFACE WARMING. THIS NEW ADVISORY WILL BE
IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
ACROSS INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL.
PREV DISC...
A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER MAIND
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE
REGION ALOFT. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST INITIAL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY ALONG THE COAST
AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR/ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT.
FURTHER INLAND...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AFTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES.
ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500 FEET MAY HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN THE
LONGEST WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF
ICE ACCRETION.
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES IN THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES PLACING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TODAY.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY
ALLOW THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MAIN...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES UPSTATE NEW
YORK. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR. HIGH PWAT
AND POLEWARD WIND VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN A HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS EVENT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FORMING LATE
AT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
PRECIP TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST.
THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON AN INCREASING MIXING LAYER AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW READINGS
TO SOAR INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH IN PORTLAND
FOR THURSDAY IS 51 WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS SET IN 1984 AND 1985.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE NAM
MOS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SEEMS
MORE REASONABLE. THE FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THEN
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST AS
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOST AREAS WILL DETEORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MIXED
PRECIPITATION WITH ICING EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND
SHEAR TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BUT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER SOME SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 3.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NHZ005>011-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ012>014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS
HYDROLOGY...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
656 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE SNOW HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
ACCUMULATING OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...A
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND LOSS OF
WHAT INSOLATION WE HAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO
STICK.
DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND OMEGA
PLACEMENT ARE ALL FACTORS TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WV...MD...AND PA. HAVE BUMPED UP
THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC AND UPSLOPE
SUPPORT WHICH WILL GET OUR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG MIXING IN THE HAS PRODUCED
GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN THE RIDGES. WHILE THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD
ONLY LAST 6 HOURS OR SO...HAVE EMPHASIZED THE NEAR- ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS IN THE UPDATED WSW THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THERE IS A WINDOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED COINCIDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INVIGORATE SOME SNOW SQUALLS...AS IS EMPHASIZED IN THE
HRRR AND THE RUC IN THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THESE CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND
INVERSIONS DROP BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST A DUAL-LAKE
BAND MAY PROLONG SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-80 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY IN THOSE COUNTIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A BAND PERSISTS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN LATER FRIDAY FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WOULD RECEIVE RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WOULD HAVE SNOW MIX IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH MODELS LACKING RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...HAVE MADE RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...BULK OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN
CONTAINED TO FKL/DUJ TERMINALS. EVEN WITH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING...EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST UP
TO 20-30 KT...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. AFTER 14Z...SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO VFR CEILINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
.OUTLOOK.../AFTER 00Z SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH A MON COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
406 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN
LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN
INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA
HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE
SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG
WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST
HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO
NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW
SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV
ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10
INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE
STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND
TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO
LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS
FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW
PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL
SITES. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE BRIEF TIMES OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES AS WELL IN LIGHT SNOW OR UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING IFR AT KIWD AND KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WED
AFTERNOON AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER W KY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT
TONIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO EXITS INTO N QUEBEC. THE RESULT WILL BE
N-NE GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES THURSDAY BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS TO THE GULF COAST
FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE
REPLACED BY A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WHILE THE PARENT LOW
CROSSES N ONTARIO. SW GUSTS COULD NEAR 30KTS FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY
SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEARS
LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS LIKELY TOPPING 20
KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS SE MI FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WED
MORNING. ATTM...PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
WED MORNING AROUND DETROIT...AND MAINLY SNOW AT PTK/FNT/MBS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS BOTH
SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. DAYTIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES AT
PTK/FNT/MBS. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVY AND WET.
FOR DTW...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP ONSET BETWEEN AROUND
11Z...LIKELY BEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES AT METRO
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE BORDER BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR BY MID WED AFTERNOON. IF THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCURS MORE QUICKLY...AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
* LOW IN TIMING THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 957 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ANY
ADJUSTMENTS WILL AWAIT THE ANALYSIS OF THE FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP NOW SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CHURNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995MB SFC LOW OVER NRN
MISSISSIPPI. THE LAST FEW SFC ANALYSES AND RECENT SFC PRESSURE
CHANGE SUGGEST THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO WRN TENNESSEE/WRN
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. SUGGESTING THE MORNING GFS RUN MAY INDEED BE
A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST...YET ALSO RAISING SOME CONCERNS THE ECMWF
MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR EAST.
THIS DOES SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL FLUCTUATE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND BACK AT TIMES...WITH THE
FAR SOUTHEAST /MONROE TO DOWNTOWN DETROIT/ POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL
RAIN INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FULLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. LATER
FORECAST SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE THERMAL PROFILE AS
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
/ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ANN ARBOR TO PORT HURON LINE/.
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW AND
STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SUPPORT SOLID WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL.
AS FAR AS THE EVENING UPDATE...THE RECENT HRRR AND 00Z NAM ARE
PICKING UP ON THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR /NOTED ON THE 00Z DTX
SOUNDING/. THIS WILL SUPPORT BACKING OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS BY A COUPLE HOURS. THE LEAD
EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AROUND
11Z...THEN LIFT INTO FLINT AND PORT HURON AROUND 13Z.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
DISCUSSION...
A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH
HIGHLY SENSITIVE THERMAL FIELDS...AS THE INTERACTION OF THREE KEY
UPPER LEVEL PLAYERS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH
SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE
CWA...AS EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS IN MID LEVELS.
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH MINNESOTA EXTENDING
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND FORCE THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CIRCULATION
IS QUICKLY TIGHTENING UP AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DEEPENING OF THE
LOW PRESSURE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN GULF STATES. THE BIG ISSUE IS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY QUICKLY UNRAVELS AND EXPANDS OUTWARD...WITH
THE EXCELLENT FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENT
ADVANCING NORTH...ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PW VALUES
PUSHING TOWARD 0.75 INCHES...AND 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RUNNING
AROUND 4 G/KG...AND EVEN MAYBE APPROACHING 5 G/KG DOWNRIVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES WARMTH...AND WILL BE TOWING THE
LINE WITH THE 0 C ISOTHERM ACROSS A VERY DEEP LAYER. THE GFS AND NAM
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY PRONOUNCED...AS 925-850 MB WET BULB TEMPS
OF THE GFS ARE A GOOD 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE NAM OVER WAYNE
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS A BIT OF
A WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND WITH THE GEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM...FORECAST WAS SKEWED ON THE COLDER SIDE...AS THE 12Z EURO HAS
COME IN LINE WITH ITS 00Z RUN. THE HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE AT 6Z WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE BORDER...AS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TOO DEEP AND WEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW (983 MB)...LIKELY SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHILE
THE EURO IS MUCH FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER AT 990 MB. LATEST RAP13 IS
IN LINE WITH THE EURO MAGNITUDE BUT IN THE MIDDLE FOR LOCATION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THE COLD DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FEED DOWN LOW SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD WET BULBING WITH LEAD SURGE OF MOISTURE/ACTIVITY TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER (MONROE/WAYNE/LENAWEE COUNTIES)...AS MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO IMPINGE ON THESE AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IF PRECIPITATION DOES TAPER OFF AND SHUT DOWN...SOME
MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1
TO 5 INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. HIGHER END IF
WE STAY MOSTLY SNOW AND DON`T MIX...LOWER END WITH MIXTURE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE GLACIAL
RIDGE BEING ALL SNOW...WITH LONGER DURATION OF FORCING.
ALTHOUGH THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD SAGINAW BAY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THE QUESTION MARK IS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SETTLING BACK SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS THIRD UPPER LEVEL PLAYER CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON ACTS AS THE KICKER AND
ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SET IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING
THE SNOW BY AROUND NOON. WITH MUCH OF THE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE
CONSISTENT EURO...TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-69 POINT TO STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF SAGINAW BAY/LAKE HURON DURING WEDNESDAY
WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORES...BUT WITH THE WET NATURE OF SNOW...LACK OF BLOWING SNOW
INITIALLY...VISIBILITIES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 1/4SM FOR ANY
EXTENDED TIME...AND HELD OFF ON BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS IS SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS CAN LOOK AT CLOSELY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A CANADIAN LOW DROPS OVER THE
DAKOTA`S AND BEGINS ITS EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD MICHIGAN. THIS
LOW...WHICH INITIALLY LOOKED FAIRLY WEAK...NOW APPEARS TO BE A
LITTLE MORE HEARTY. IT BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE...
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN
OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE ON INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING AN
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECTING GALES ON LAKE
HURON WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A LONGER DURATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IMPACTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RAIN SNOW LINE STILL IS UNCERTAIN.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO RUN THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM ABOUT PORT HURON SOUTH THROUGH DETROIT.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY. EVEN IF IT FELL ALL
AS RAIN...WOULD ONLY EXPECT THE ROUGE RIVER TO COME NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MIZ076-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MIZ060>063-068>070-075.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MIZ047>049-053>055.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
421-422-441-462.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361-442-
443-463-464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...SF/DE
MARINE.......DRC
HYDROLOGY....DRC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 839 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
Upper level low was now over southwest AR with a deep surface low
ahead of it over northwest MS. Rain was spreading northward into
parts of southeast MO and southwest IL with a narow band of rain
extending from Linn to Elsberry MO, just west of the St Louis
metro area. Latest HRRR model runs spread precipitation through
southeast MO and southwest IL late tonight, including most of the
St Louis metro area with St Charles county being the western edge
of the persistent precipitation shield. The rain should change
over to snow over most of the area late tonight leading to
potentially hazardous driving conditions Wednesday morning.
Snowfall rates may be quite high across parts of southeast MO and
southwest IL Wednesday morning and may have to increase snow
amounts a little mainly south and east of STL. Will continue
Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Advisory for late tonight and
Wednesday for southeast MO and southwest IL, including the St
Louis metro area.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
Have made some significant adjustments to the forecast that
include metro St. Louis. A winter weather advisory and a wind
advisory has already been issued for late tonight and tomorrow.
Water vapor shows that the upper low is bottoming out over the
Southern Plains that will move northeast tonight and tomorrow
morning through the Mid South into the Ohio Valley. The 12Z run of
the GFS showed a slight shift to the northwest with the axis of
the precipitation whereas the 12Z ECMWF is slightly farther to
southeast. GFS is showing intense frontogenesis that will move
along the northwestern edge of precipitation band from the
eastern Ozarks into central Illinois including the St. Louis metro
area from 09-15Z that will likely be producing heavy
precipitation rates. Forecast soundings indicate that this will be
snow. The latest runs from the HRRR, WRF, and RAP all are
supporting this, showing mesoscale banding moving up into eastern
Missouri and southwestern Illinois late tonight and early
Wednesday. So expect precipitation to move into the area this
evening and overnight through the morning hours, with more snow
now given the amount of forcing and slightly colder soundings.
This now justifies issuing an advisory for the southeastern half of
the CWA of snowfall amounts. There will be a time in the morning
where the snow could be heavy at times with big wet heavy flakes.
It will also be windy as the pressure gradient will be tightening
as the surface low deepens. Have also issued a wind advisory for
the same location as the winter weather advisory.
Have lowered temperatures below guidance. Temperatures will be
hampered from rising tomorrow by the clouds and the precipitation.
Precipitation will end from west to east during the afternoon as the
system begins to lift out of the area.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
Still looks like we will stay dry from Thursday into Saturday as
there will not be much moisture to work with under northwesterly
flow aloft. Temperatures will go from below normal to back above
normal for the weekend. Still looks like a system will bring us a
chance of precipitation on Sunday night.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
Based on a variety of guidance the previous forecast looks to be
in pretty good shape. The low pressure system was located in
western TN at 06z and lifting northeastward. It will continue to
move northeastward and deepen through the forecast period. Rain
had already spread into southern IL and southern MO and will
continue to move north and fill in across the St. Louis metro
area between 06-08z. Present indications are that the rain will
change to snow across far eastern MO into southwest IL in the
09-10z period and then continue through the morning, tapering off
by early afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate lowering to
IFR once the change to snow occurs. The snow should remain east of
KCOU and south of KUIN. Northerly winds have been increasing this
evening and will continue to ramp up overnight with strong and
gusty north-northwest winds lasting through the day on Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Rain was encroaching on KSTL from the northwest and southeast and
should move into the terminal between 06-08z. Present indications
are that the rain will change to snow in the 09-10z period and
then continue through the morning, tapering off by early afternoon.
Flight conditions will deteriorate, lowering to IFR once the
change to snow occurs. Northerly winds have been increasing this
evening and will continue to ramp up overnight with strong and
gusty north-northwest winds lasting through the day on Wednesday.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Franklin
MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles
MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Madison IL-
Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-
Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-
Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
IL.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE FROM
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT. IT DID HAVE 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS IN WRN ND AT 12Z...AND 300 MB WINDS
WERE AROUND 115 KNOTS FROM SASK DOWN INTO WRN SD. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED ECHOES DROPPING SEWD ACROSS SD AND PARTS
OF NRN NE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND EVEN A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE AT SOME SPOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS. RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING ARE INTERESTING...WITH SOME 40-50 DBZ
ECHOES SHOWN. WILL MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
(TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW BY MID EVENING) THEN A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW (DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIME) AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED AREAS GETTING AROUND AN INCH.
EXPECT LOWS 25 TO 30 AND WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING.
FLURRIES COULD LINGER THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS MAY
BE AROUND 30 MPH OR HIGHER. HIGHS SHOULD BE 35 TO 40 NORTH AND 38
TO 42 SOUTH.
THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS DRY. MID
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY. STRONGER
WARMING SETS IN FOR SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN...WITH A MILD DAY ON TAP. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S...FAIRLY CLOSE TO OR ABOVE GFS MOS. DEWPOINTS AT THIS
TIME LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS DOWN...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLY LAGGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT OUR AREA
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR ABOUT
THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MODEST 850-500 MB MEAN RH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY NUMBERS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT TOO.
OTHERWISE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE
SPREADS PCPN INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN IN OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THE PCPN TYPE ACROSS
ERN NE AND SWRN IA WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW MORE
LIKELY IN OUR NRN ZONES AND RAIN MORE LIKELY SRN ZONES. AT THIS
POINT...BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS QPF VALUES ARE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER MAY BE TOO DRY. AT LEAST SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BUT HELD ONTO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS AFFECTING KOMA/KLNK HAS BECOME MORE BROKEN
TO SCATTERED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE IN BOTH SITES AND
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT KOFK AND SNOW AT KOMA (DUE TO LATER ARRIVAL)...BUT
TOOK MENTION OUT OF KLNK...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IS LOWER.
BEHIND PRECIPITATION...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1046 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AS REMAINING BAND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. ADDED FREEZING FOG TO SOME NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WELL. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS COLD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR
SO...THANKS TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1042 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LAST SMALL BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WEST OF KAEG LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BR AND FZFG HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE
EARLIER BANDS EXISTED...INCLUDING AROUND KFMN AND KSAF. THESE TWO
SITES WILL LIKELY WAFFLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN LIFR
AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ATTEMPTED TO INDICATE AS SUCH IN GOING TAFS.
EVENTUALLY...INCOMING DRIER AIR SHOULD CLEAR THEM OUT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THAT WILL BE. LESS ACTIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE IN OVERHEAD.
LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL...BUT COULD SEE SOME WESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NE NM WED
EVENING BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE N AND NE.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...546 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.UPDATE...
BAND OF SNOW WHICH HAS SET UP OVER SANTA FE AREA SHOWS LITTLE
SIGN OF RELENTING SOON...AND REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR INDICATE AN
ADVISORY PROBABLY NECESSARY...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM AS WELL
AS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY. HRRR
AND RAP SHOW THE BAND PERSISTING THRU AROUND 04Z BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING A FEW INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING TREND ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A TRAILING BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE WHISKING SOUTHEASTWARD. AROUND 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE JEMEZ. THUS...WE PLAN
TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND LOWER CHAMA
RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW RECENTLY ACCUMULATED...AS
SKIES CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE CASE IN ALBUQUERQUES NE
HEIGHTS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS...TOO.
MODELS NOW SHOW SUNDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TOO FAR NORTH
OF NM FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BECOME GUSTY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH A SIMILAR LOOK TO TODAYS ONGOING SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO CLIP NE NM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA WILL TAPER OFF WHILE LINGERING
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
HAS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN MTS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE ROUGHLY 3 TO 8 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 1 FT.
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN THE OTHER STORY
TODAY...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY TREND LIGHTER AND WARMER INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS
AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS AND 20S. THIS ALONG WITH SNOWMELT WILL HELP WITH IMPROVING RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VERY DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE
STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIN RH VALUES
IN THE TEENS.
VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE AS WELL INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING
BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER MODELS ARE
AT ODDS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LAST SMALL BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WEST OF KAEG LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BR AND FZFG HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE
EARLIER BANDS EXISTED...INCLUDING AROUND KFMN AND KSAF. THESE TWO
SITES WILL LIKELY WAFFLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN LIFR
AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ATTEMPTED TO INDICATE AS SUCH IN GOING TAFS.
EVENTUALLY...INCOMING DRIER AIR SHOULD CLEAR THEM OUT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THAT WILL BE. LESS ACTIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE IN OVERHEAD.
LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL...BUT COULD SEE SOME WESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NE NM WED
EVENING BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE N AND NE.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...546 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.UPDATE...
BAND OF SNOW WHICH HAS SET UP OVER SANTA FE AREA SHOWS LITTLE
SIGN OF RELENTING SOON...AND REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR INDICATE AN
ADVISORY PROBABLY NECESSARY...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM AS WELL
AS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY. HRRR
AND RAP SHOW THE BAND PERSISTING THRU AROUND 04Z BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING A FEW INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING TREND ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A TRAILING BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE WHISKING SOUTHEASTWARD. AROUND 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE JEMEZ. THUS...WE PLAN
TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND LOWER CHAMA
RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW RECENTLY ACCUMULATED...AS
SKIES CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE CASE IN ALBUQUERQUES NE
HEIGHTS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS...TOO.
MODELS NOW SHOW SUNDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TOO FAR NORTH
OF NM FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BECOME GUSTY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH A SIMILAR LOOK TO TODAYS ONGOING SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO CLIP NE NM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA WILL TAPER OFF WHILE LINGERING
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
HAS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN MTS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE ROUGHLY 3 TO 8 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 1 FT.
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN THE OTHER STORY
TODAY...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY TREND LIGHTER AND WARMER INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS
AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS AND 20S. THIS ALONG WITH SNOWMELT WILL HELP WITH IMPROVING RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VERY DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE
STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIN RH VALUES
IN THE TEENS.
VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE AS WELL INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING
BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER MODELS ARE
AT ODDS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST TONIGHT AND THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST LINE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YADKIN RIVER
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WILL REACH THE TRIAD BETWEEN 1 AND 2
PM...AND INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA 3-4 PM. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS ARE
ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WEDGE HAS ERODED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SETTING TABLE FOR SOME
MODEST DESTABILIZATION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN
ON THE UPTICK DUE TO THE MIXING...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. SOME MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT TIMING OF
THESE TRENDS ARE IN ORDER...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK
PER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF
COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT
850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A
STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL
WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD
THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED
SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND
MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR
THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM.
MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS
INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400
M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH
11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT
FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED
ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL
AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY
THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME
FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY
LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS.
SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS
AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION)
...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40-
45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 7PM OR SO...WITH
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 41-48 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD
MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS
WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO
65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTH WITH MILD RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE LOWER PLAINS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EAST COAST UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIAL COLD AIR
WEDGE HAS ERODED AND AN INTITIAL LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST...INTO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
(GSO/INT) BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. EASTERN SITES MAY EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN LINE REACHING THE
SITES 19-22Z. GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS COULD REACH 50 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO.
MEANWHILE...THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WILL FEATURE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. AFTER THE CONVECTION
WANES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING 20 TO 25
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS THURSDAY REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z
TOMORROW EVENING (BEYOND THE VALID TAF PERIOD).
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/MLM
NEAR TERM...22/MLM
SHORT TERM...26/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
956 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN
ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST TONIGHT AND THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 956 AM WEDNESDAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY...
WEDGE HAS ERODED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...SETTING TABLE FOR SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE UPTICK DUE TO THE MIXING
...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO REFLECT TIMING OF THESE TRENDS ARE IN ORDER...OTHERWISE
THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK PER DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS
FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
JET (60 KT AT 850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL
CONCURRENT WITH A STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND
RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD
THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED
SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND
MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR
THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM.
MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS
INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400
M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH
11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT
FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED
ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL
AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY
THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME
FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY
LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS.
SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS
AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION)
...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40-
45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8PM OR
SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE41-48 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD
MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAYDAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS
WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO
65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTH WITH MILD RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE LOWER PLAINS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EAST COAST UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 900 AM WEDNESDAY...
COLD AIR DAMMING...AND ASSOCIATED COOL AND SATURATED AIR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 2000-2500 FT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS IN
THE INVERSION LAYER WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 9-12Z...OWING TO
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH; AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE
INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY WINDY...WARM...AND
HUMID REGIME --ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS OR OCCASIONAL
SCATTERING TO VFR-- AND STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 11-14Z AT FAY AND RWI; 12-15Z AT
RDU...AND 14-17Z AT GSO/INT.
IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE
SC STATE LINE. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BASED WITHIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY NOT POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT
ROUNDS OF STORMS BETWEEN 15-22Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SWATHS OF
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES...
PARTICULARLY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE STORMS AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS...WILL
FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...22/MLM
SHORT TERM...26/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
925 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT
AND THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF
COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT
850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A
STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL
WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD
THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED
SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND
MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR
THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM.
MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS
INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400
M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH
11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT
FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED
ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL
AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY
THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME
FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY
LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS.
SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS
AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION)
...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40-
45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8PM OR
SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE41-48 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD
MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...
COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS
WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO
65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 900 AM WEDNESDAY...
COLD AIR DAMMING...AND ASSOCIATED COOL AND SATURATED AIR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 2000-2500 FT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS IN
THE INVERSION LAYER WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 9-12Z...OWING TO
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH; AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE
INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY WINDY...WARM...AND
HUMID REGIME --ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS OR OCCASIONAL
SCATTERING TO VFR-- AND STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 11-14Z AT FAY AND RWI; 12-15Z AT
RDU...AND 14-17Z AT GSO/INT.
IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE
SC STATE LINE. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BASED WITHIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY NOT POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT
ROUNDS OF STORMS BETWEEN 15-22Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SWATHS OF
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES...
PARTICULARLY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE STORMS AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS...WILL
FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...26/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
359 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT
AND THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF
COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT
850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A
STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL
WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD
THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED
SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND
MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR
THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM.
MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS
INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400
M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH
11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT
FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED
ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL
AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY
THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME
FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY
LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS.
SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS
AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION)
...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40-
45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8PM OR
SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE41-48 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD
MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...
COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS
WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO
65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
COLD AIR DAMMING...AND ASSOCIATED COOL AND SATURATED AIR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 2000-2500 FT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS IN
THE INVERSION LAYER WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 9-12Z...OWING TO
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH; AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE
INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY WINDY...WARM...AND
HUMID REGIME --ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS OR OCCASIONAL
SCATTERING TO VFR-- AND STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 11-14Z AT FAY AND RWI; 12-15Z AT
RDU...AND 14-17Z AT GSO/INT.
IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE
SC STATE LINE. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BASED WITHIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY NOT POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT
ROUNDS OF STORMS BETWEEN 15-22Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SWATHS OF
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES...
PARTICULARLY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE STORMS AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS...WILL
FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...26/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT
AND THU.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF
COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT
850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A
STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL
WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD
THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED
SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND
MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR
THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM.
MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS
INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400
M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH
11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT
FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED
ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL
AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY
THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME
FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY
LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS.
SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS
AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION)
...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40-
45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8PM OR
SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD
FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE41-48 RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...
...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE TN-LOWER OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW (SUB 990MB) AND
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.
THESE STRONG SLY SF WINDS WILL AID TO SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL CAD AIR
MASS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SLY SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE WARM
SECTOR AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS 35-40MPH
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A SOLID 9-12 HOURS. THUS PLAN TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC (EXCLUDING THE NW
PIEDMONT) FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE SLY WINDS WILL USHER A MOIST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. NEAR SURFACE S-SE WINDS COUPLED WITH A SLY LOW LEVEL JET
UPWARDS 50-60KTS WILL CREATE A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT BY
THE LARGE TURN HODOGRAPHS. WHILE KINEMATICS ARE QUITE STRONG...LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED AS SLIGHT AT BEST.
STILL...CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...THE STRENGTH OF THE
KINEMATICS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.
THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MID-
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST RUN OF WRF
MODELS AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF TWO LINES OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE REGION...THE FIRST IN THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER CROSSING THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
THE KINEMATICS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STORMS WITH SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST
OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT OCCUR. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
THAT WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH WILL OCCUR.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD IS
A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS WHAT TO QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE
RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS OVER THE TRIAD BUT CONSIDERING HOW ENTRENCHED
THE CAD IS PRESENTLY...THE EFFECTS OF THE CAD MAY LINGER
LONGER...LIMITING THE ABILITY OF THE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WHILE THE RESIDUAL CAD MAY INITIALLY
PROTECT THE TRIAD WHEN THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES IN LATE
MORNING...THE SECOND LINE (IF IT FORMS) MAY HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN THE TRIAD LATER IN THE DAY.
A MAY STABLE DIRE AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY
EVENING-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING TO DISSIPATE REMAINING SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND CLEARING SKIES WEST-TO-EAST. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH
GUSTS 20-30 MPH EXPECTED... IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY...A WINDY AND CHILLY 50 TO 55. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD
MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS
WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO
65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
COLD AIR DAMMING...AND ASSOCIATED COOL AND SATURATED AIR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 2000-2500 FT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS IN
THE INVERSION LAYER WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 9-12Z...OWING TO
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH; AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE
INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT
WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY WINDY...WARM...AND
HUMID REGIME --ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS OR OCCASIONAL
SCATTERING TO VFR-- AND STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 11-14Z AT FAY AND RWI; 12-15Z AT
RDU...AND 14-17Z AT GSO/INT.
IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE
SC STATE LINE. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BASED WITHIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY NOT POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT
ROUNDS OF STORMS BETWEEN 15-22Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SWATHS OF
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES...
PARTICULARLY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE STORMS AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS...WILL
FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
939 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS HELPING PREVENT FREE-FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING DESPITE A BOUNDARY LAYER. WE HELD WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE KEYS ON THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS LOWS
WARMER THAN WE ARE ADVERTISING. OUR DECISION TO MAKE NO CHANGE TO
OFFICIALLY-FORECAST LOWS IS BASED ON THE DRY AIR AND THE CLEARING
ALREADY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST ND PER EVENING
SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE MEANTIME WE DID NEED TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER IN THE FORECAST...WHILE ADVERTISING A DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NO CHANGES OF NOTE WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH-
EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. THAT WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF A DRY AND QUIET NIGHT DESPITE THAT WAVE PASSAGE.
THAT/S LARGELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT EXISTS WITH 23
UTC SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS F IN SOUTH-
WEST ND TO THE TEENS F ELSEWHERE. THE DRY AIR MAY PROMOTE QUICK
COOLING THIS EVENING SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES IN
CASE FORECAST LOWS ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE RETREATING
TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ERODING THE
WESTERN EDGE. BY THIS EVENING THE STRATUS SHOULD HAVE RETREATED
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ISOLATED FOG NORTH
CENTRAL BUT NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST YET.
ON FRIDAY...THE H500 RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION. WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH GOOD MIXING
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE A BRIEF BUT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS
ROUNDING OUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING A COOLING
TREND. CHANCES OF SNOW ALSO RETURN WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE NAEFS/NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM SHOWS MODEL FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO 850-500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING WITHIN THE 98TH/99TH PERCENTILE WITH RESPECT TO
CLIMATOLOGY. NOT QUITE A MAXIMUM BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE THESE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT AN EVENT THAT IS OUTSIDE THE 1979-
2000 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
AROUND 65 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR CITIES WITH THE RECORD AT
JAMESTOWN OF 60 DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
50F AND 62F. ALBEIT SHY OF RECORDS...THIS WILL STILL NEED SOME
MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IS FORECAST WEST SATURDAY EVENING...AND AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUICK TRANSITION FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BACK TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PUSHES
THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. THIS COULD CHANGE IF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG
TERM MODELS CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN THE GFS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES CHANCES
OF SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ONLY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AFTER SATURDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
TREND COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
GOOD VFR FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS THANKS TO A DRY AIR MASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY IN
CONTROL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
554 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NO CHANGES OF NOTE WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH-
EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. THAT WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF A DRY AND QUIET NIGHT DESPITE THAT WAVE PASSAGE.
THAT/S LARGELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT EXISTS WITH 23
UTC SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS F IN SOUTH-
WEST ND TO THE TEENS F ELSEWHERE. THE DRY AIR MAY PROMOTE QUICK
COOLING THIS EVENING SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES IN
CASE FORECAST LOWS ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE RETREATING
TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ERODING THE
WESTERN EDGE. BY THIS EVENING THE STRATUS SHOULD HAVE RETREATED
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ISOLATED FOG NORTH
CENTRAL BUT NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST YET.
ON FRIDAY...THE H500 RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION. WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH GOOD MIXING
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE A BRIEF BUT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS
ROUNDING OUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING A COOLING
TREND. CHANCES OF SNOW ALSO RETURN WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE NAEFS/NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM SHOWS MODEL FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO 850-500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING WITHIN THE 98TH/99TH PERCENTILE WITH RESPECT TO
CLIMATOLOGY. NOT QUITE A MAXIMUM BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE THESE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT AN EVENT THAT IS OUTSIDE THE 1979-
2000 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
AROUND 65 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR CITIES WITH THE RECORD AT
JAMESTOWN OF 60 DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
50F AND 62F. ALBEIT SHY OF RECORDS...THIS WILL STILL NEED SOME
MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IS FORECAST WEST SATURDAY EVENING...AND AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUICK TRANSITION FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BACK TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PUSHES
THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. THIS COULD CHANGE IF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG
TERM MODELS CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN THE GFS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES CHANCES
OF SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ONLY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AFTER SATURDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
TREND COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
GOOD VFR FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
THANKS TO A DRY AIR MASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY IN CONTROL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
STRONG S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ND
NOW THROUGH 12Z...THEN INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL 12-18Z.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO PORTRAY A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...AND HARD TO ARGUE WITH A LACK OF
LIGHT SNOW OBSERVED CURRENTLY UPSTREAM NEAR THE WAVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME FLURRIES/SCT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CENTRAL AND
EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST FROM ROLLA SOUTH TOWARD
THE JAMESTOWN AREA WHERE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW EXISTS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...AND WHERE TEMPERATURE/
DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LESS THAN 5 F AS OF 0330 UTC. HRRR SOLUTIONS
ARE ALSO CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING SOME FOG IN THOSE AREAS. OTHER-
WISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WE
DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY AFTER 09 UTC IN SOUTHWEST ND USING A
TIME-LAGGED...RAPID-REFRESH-BASED SUITE OF GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN ND HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 22 UTC...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET AS THE NEAR-GROUND LAYER COOLS...CAUSING AT LEAST A WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION TO FORM PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE
REGION WITH ANOTHER POISED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
STRATO-CU FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TO THE
WEST GUST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE MIXING WELL AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST AFTER SUNSET WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS NORTH. THE CONSALL GUIDANCE GAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW BUT ONCE AGAIN
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. OVERALL ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT FOR SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A QUIET BUT COOL DAY
THURSDAY AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE AND CONTINUES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
THE SYSTEM...BUT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S...BUT A
BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. A
FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE STATE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS
SOUTHWEST...BUT SEASONABLE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES VALLEY AS
COOLER AIR BEGINS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW TO OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A COOL SPELL. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM AROUND 5 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS.
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY
LOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND KEEPS ANY
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE FROM TAKING HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA. LOW IFR CIGS AND
FOG FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND KJMS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT IN THE LOWER CEILINGS
THOUGH GIVEN A LACK OF STRATUS OBSERVED UPSTREAM WITH THE FRONT.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WEST...THEN
CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NW FA OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
FRESH SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF MORE THAN
EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTH OF DULUTH AT MID AFTN. SNOW HAS EXITED THE EASTERN
FCST AREA AFTER A NARROW AREA OF 6 INCH SNOWFALL NR ROSEAU-
WARROAD-LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. SOME DRYING NOTED COMING SOUTH
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER AND DRYING IS FCST VIA HRRR TO MOVE INTO
NW MN THIS EVENING. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL BE
HOWEVER. CLOUD BAND LOCATED IN ERN ND NORTH INTO PARTS OF MANITOBA
BTWN BRANDON AND WINNIPEG AND THIS CLOUD AREA IS MOVING SOUTH AND
MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ERN ND FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING. SO AT
FIRST SKY COVER TONIGHT MAY BE RATHER CHAOTIC. NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BUT ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
NEXT SHORT WAVE PRETTY WELL DEFINED MOVING INTO ECNTRL ALBERTA.
NO PRECIP YET NOTED WITH SYSTEM VIA OBS OR CANADIAN RADAR. BUT
THIS UPPER SYSTEM DOES STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
CNTRL ND 18Z-21Z PERIOD THEN INTO ERN SD WED EVENING. WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS WITH THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS IN AREA OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7 TO 7.5C/KM 700-500 MB)...CONCERN AGAIN
WILL THIS OCCUR AGAIN. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND DOES APPEAR MAIN
RISK IS CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD BRUSHING SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS
IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHC OF 1 INCH OF SNOW (JMS-ABR-ATY
REGION).
DID INCREASE POPS WED 12-18Z IN WRN FCST AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO
RRV WED AFTN/NIGHT. FAR ERN FCST AREA ON THE EDGE WITH SYSTEM AS
BEST AREAS FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
LIKELY A BIT UNDERDONE SO WENT A TAD HIGHER. BUT IF FULL SUN COULD
BE EVEN HIGHER.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SATURDAY
COULD EVEN BE WARMER THAN THE BLENDED SOLUTION HIGHS IF WE GET
SOME SUN OVER OUR NO SNOW AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PHASED AND
AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BRINGING DOWN A
STRONGER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. CONSIDERING THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE MUCH WARMER AND MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
WARMER BLENDED SOLUTION AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
ALTHOUGH ALL BUT BJI VFR MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS BACK IFR CIGS BACK
INTO THE FA TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TAFS. MOST SNOW TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE FA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
526 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY. A TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR 630 UPDATE. TSRA TO SOUTH DIMINISHING
AND WITH SUNSET SEE NO REASON TO CONTINUE MENTIONING TSRA.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR SPRINGFIELD OHIO AND ACCORDING TO
PRESSURE FALLS...WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ASHTABULA THIS
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE STEADIER
STRATIFORM RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH AND IN THE WARM SECTOR WE ARE
SEEING CONVECTIVE BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVELY COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP ACROSS THE
EAST WHERE THEY WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S TODAY...BUT OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
BY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST- NORTHWEST FIRST
NEAR THE TOLEDO/FINDLAY AREA THEN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.
THE WIND SHIFT IS A DECENT PROXY TO THE POSITION OF THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.
REALLY A MARGINAL SNOW EVENT BUT HAVE PUT UP A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP NEAR 3 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN ACTUAL
ACCUMULATING CAN START.
BEGAN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH LATER OVERNIGHT. BULK OF
IMPACT WILL BE THURSDAY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NW OH CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. BY THEN SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND WILL BE
TAPERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN A MARGINAL SNOW EVENT FOR NE OH/NW PA AS THE SNOW WILL BE
DRAWN OUT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART PEOPLE SHOULD END UP WITH 4 OR 5
INCHES. A FEW 6 INCH REPORTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA. WE DO NOT GET
A TRUE LAKE CONTRIBUTION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE END.
SNOWBELT SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE INVERSION DROPS. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS ALL OTHERS QUIET AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO NO WHERE ON THURSDAY. AGAIN COLD AIR IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WE WILL END UP BEING SEASONABLE FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RATHER BENIGN SATURDAY AND
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL
ALLOW FOR CALM WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIT AND MISS FOR THE MOST PART WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... THE MODELS TEND TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA. SINCE THE AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WARM...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START AS RAIN
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST ON MONDAY COLD
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES
DOWN BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.
SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS COMING FROM A COLD DRY CANADIAN
CLIMATE...CAN CERTAINLY SEE THIS SYSTEM REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND
SNOW CHANCES REMAINING RELATIVELY LIMITED BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT... THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIFFER. THE GFS
BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WOULD
MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD STREAM IN SOME WARM
MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
WEEK. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF DRAWS IN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH THAT
BRINGS COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD INDICATE A DRIER AIR MASS BUT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ALTHOUGH BIASED THE GFS A BIT AS IT HAS HANDLED THE CURRENT SYSTEM
BETTER AND THE WARMER SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE THEME AS OF LATE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TOWARD THE AREA. GOES-14 ONE MINUTE RAPID SCAN SHOWING A LARGE
AREA OF VFR CONDITION PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE VFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING
YNG...ERI AND POSSIBLY CAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR SHOULD
REMAIN AT TOL AND FDY. MFD AND CLE WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IFR BUT
COULD BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WESTERN SITES TOL AND FDY AROUND 00Z...04Z AT
MFD AND CLE...AFT 06Z FOR CAK...YNG AND ERI. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE
SNOW BY 12Z THU. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW TWO MILES IN THE
SNOW OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR
LESS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PERIODICALLY. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. NON VFR WILL
CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PASS DIRECTLY OVER
THE CENTER SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL CREATE VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. I WILL ALLOW
THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS AROUND
30 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. IT IS A MARGINAL GALE FOR
THURSDAY. I AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON THE GALE WARNING FOR NOW BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
OHZ011>014-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006-
017.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
409 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY. A TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR SPRINGFIELD OHIO AND ACCORDING TO
PRESSURE FALLS...WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ASHTABULA THIS
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE STEADIER
STRATIFORM RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH AND IN THE WARM SECTOR WE ARE
SEEING CONVECTIVE BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVELY COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP ACROSS THE
EAST WHERE THEY WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S TODAY...BUT
OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST FIRST NEAR THE TOLEDO/FINDLAY AREA THEN LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EAST. THE WIND SHIFT IS A DECENT PROXY TO THE POSITION
OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A TROUGH THAT WILL
LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION.
REALLY A MARGINAL SNOW EVENT BUT HAVE PUT UP A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP NEAR 3 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN ACTUAL
ACCUMULATING CAN START.
BEGAN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH LATER OVERNIGHT. BULK OF
IMPACT WILL BE THURSDAY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NW OH CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. BY THEN SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND WILL BE
TAPERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN A MARGINAL SNOW EVENT FOR NE OH/NW PA AS THE SNOW WILL BE
DRAWN OUT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART PEOPLE SHOULD END UP WITH 4 OR 5
INCHES. A FEW 6 INCH REPORTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA. WE DO NOT GET
A TRUE LAKE CONTRIBUTION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE END.
SNOWBELT SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE INVERSION DROPS. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS ALL OTHERS QUIET AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO NO WHERE ON THURSDAY. AGAIN COLD AIR IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WE WILL END UP BEING SEASONABLE FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RATHER BENIGN SATURDAY AND
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL
ALLOW FOR CALM WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIT AND MISS FOR THE MOST PART WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... THE MODELS TEND TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA. SINCE THE AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WARM...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START AS RAIN
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST ON MONDAY COLD
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES
DOWN BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.
SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS COMING FROM A COLD DRY CANADIAN
CLIMATE...CAN CERTAINLY SEE THIS SYSTEM REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND
SNOW CHANCES REMAINING RELATIVELY LIMITED BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT... THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIFFER. THE GFS
BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WOULD
MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD STREAM IN SOME WARM
MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
WEEK. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF DRAWS IN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH THAT
BRINGS COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD INDICATE A DRIER AIR MASS BUT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
ALTHOUGH BIASED THE GFS A BIT AS IT HAS HANDLED THE CURRENT SYSTEM
BETTER AND THE WARMER SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE THEME AS OF LATE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TOWARD THE AREA. GOES-14 ONE MINUTE RAPID SCAN SHOWING A LARGE
AREA OF VFR CONDITION PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE VFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING
YNG...ERI AND POSSIBLY CAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR SHOULD
REMAIN AT TOL AND FDY. MFD AND CLE WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IFR BUT
COULD BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WESTERN SITES TOL AND FDY AROUND 00Z...04Z AT
MFD AND CLE...AFT 06Z FOR CAK...YNG AND ERI. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE
SNOW BY 12Z THU. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW TWO MILES IN THE
SNOW OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR
LESS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PERIODICALLY. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. NON VFR WILL
CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PASS DIRECTLY OVER
THE CENTER SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL CREATE VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. I WILL ALLOW
THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS AROUND
30 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. IT IS A MARGINAL GALE FOR
THURSDAY. I AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON THE GALE WARNING FOR NOW BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
OHZ011>014-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006-
017.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1254 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING WHEN THEY REACH NORTHERN OHIO...AND RAIN
WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD AIR GETS PULLED IN ON WESTERLY WIND. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD HAS PIVOTED UP INTO NORTHERN OHIO WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA NOW LIGHTER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE SCATTERED. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AN INCH OR
SO...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WE HAVE HAD A FEW
SPOTTY REPORTS OF ICING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ROAD
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A TRAVEL
ISSUE WITH THIS...BUT SOME LIGHT ICING ON EXPOSED SURFACES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL TEMPERATURES BUMP UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS WHERE WE WILL
GET INTO A BIT OF A WARM SECTOR...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITIES OF GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY SYNCED UP WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING SHEAR...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON WESTERLY WINDS AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WARM AND WET GROUND
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND EXPECTED QPF...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
NOTED NORTH OF METROPOLITAN DAYTON. AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES
IN....SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
TAP MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SHARP TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR WESTERN STATES...WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AND GRAZING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILN FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BE CONTINUING WITHIN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ON
FRIDAY MORNING...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW. A THICK
STRATOCUMULUS DECK LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY TO EXIST...AND THIS MAY NOT
CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.
AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TIMING AND PLACEMENT ALIGNMENT ON THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF
ARE GOOD...BUT UNSURPRISINGLY...DETAILS ON THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND
THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE IN MUCH POORER
AGREEMENT. AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF WARM ADVECTION...WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION OCCURS SHOULD START AS RAIN...AND MAY STAY THAT WAY IN
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MIX
WITH SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO LARGE TO
ACCURATELY PREDICT A SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC RESULT. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO
TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM
TROUGHING BEYOND THAT POINT IS IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. AFTER
MONDAY...500MB GFSE PERTURBATIONS BECOME COMPLETELY MISALIGNED AND
OUT OF PHASE. THUS...SPECIFICS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY ARE
VERY LOW IN CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF KCVG WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL RIDE UP ALONG I-71 THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT
DOES...EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK UP
TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO
IFR. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR...BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN GOOD CAA...GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND IFR TO MVFR VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS TO PREVAIL ON INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO TODAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST STATES BY
FRIDAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. STILL EVALUATING SNOW
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND A NEW ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR AT LEAST NW OH. NE OH/NW PA ALSO A CONCERN BUT
MORE FOR THURSDAY.
MONITORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS OF 10 AM HAVE RECEIVED 1.01 INCHES
AT MANSFIELD. CAK AND MNN AT 0.98 INCHES. FDY AT 0.70. SHORT TERM
CONCERN LIES WITH CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING TO
OUR SOUTH AND PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
THE MAHONING VALLEY. CONCERN WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON TOP OF THAT. HAVE CONTINUED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL WATCH FLOOD THREAT.
TRACK OF SYSTEM BASED ON THE PRESSURE FALLS IS HEADED TOWARD
CENTRAL OHIO AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING. THIS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
DELAYED BIG RISE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY JUST A FEW
HOURS. NICE GRADIENT IN TEMPS EXPECTED...WITH MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND MID 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING
RAIN TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WRAP AROUND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW FROM THE RAIN. SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MEAN
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND SOME LINGERING SNOW ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST AND BRING A RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEMS...ANY TIMING DIFFERENCES CAN MAKE FOR
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE AND POP ERRORS.
THE MODELS WANT TO BRING THE WARM AIR BACK ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT GUIDANCE GIVES POPS FROM ABOUT 10 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTH TO NEAR 25 PERCENT AROUND TOLEDO AND CANNOT REALLY ARGUE AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR 50 OR PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER.
THE GUSTY PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY BUT THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CMC AND
ECMWF ARE SLOWER AND THE ECMWF IS WETTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL STAND PAT FOR NOW GIVEN THE
WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AS A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TOWARD THE AREA. GOES-14 ONE MINUTE RAPID SCAN SHOWING A LARGE
AREA OF VFR CONDITION PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE VFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING
YNG...ERI AND POSSIBLY CAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR SHOULD
REMAIN AT TOL AND FDY. MFD AND CLE WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IFR BUT
COULD BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WESTERN SITES TOL AND FDY AROUND 00Z...04Z AT
MFD AND CLE...AFT 06Z FOR CAK...YNG AND ERI. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE
SNOW BY 12Z THU. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW TWO MILES IN THE
SNOW OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR
LESS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PERIODICALLY. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. NON VFR WILL
CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OVER LAKE ERIE IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...IT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN OR
CENTRAL BASIN. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
LOW THIS MORNING AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME ON
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE LOW...THEN PICK BACK UP FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE WILL PROBABLY STAY
AROUND 30 KNOTS. WILL EMPHASIZE THE FIRST GALE WARNING TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF A GALE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>148-
162>168.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
935 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING WHEN THEY REACH NORTHERN OHIO...AND RAIN
WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD AIR GETS PULLED IN ON WESTERLY WIND. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD HAS PIVOTED UP INTO NORTHERN OHIO WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA NOW LIGHTER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE SCATTERED. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AN INCH OR
SO...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WE HAVE HAD A FEW
SPOTTY REPORTS OF ICING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ROAD
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A TRAVEL
ISSUE WITH THIS...BUT SOME LIGHT ICING ON EXPOSED SURFACES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL TEMPERATURES BUMP UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS WHERE WE WILL
GET INTO A BIT OF A WARM SECTOR...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITIES OF GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY SYNCED UP WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING SHEAR...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN ON WESTERLY WINDS AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WARM AND WET GROUND
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND EXPECTED QPF...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
NOTED NORTH OF METROPOLITAN DAYTON. AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES
IN....SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
TAP MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SHARP TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR WESTERN STATES...WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AND GRAZING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILN FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BE CONTINUING WITHIN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ON
FRIDAY MORNING...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW. A THICK
STRATOCUMULUS DECK LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY TO EXIST...AND THIS MAY NOT
CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.
AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TIMING AND PLACEMENT ALIGNMENT ON THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF
ARE GOOD...BUT UNSURPRISINGLY...DETAILS ON THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND
THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE IN MUCH POORER
AGREEMENT. AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF WARM ADVECTION...WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION OCCURS SHOULD START AS RAIN...AND MAY STAY THAT WAY IN
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MIX
WITH SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO LARGE TO
ACCURATELY PREDICT A SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC RESULT. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO
TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM
TROUGHING BEYOND THAT POINT IS IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. AFTER
MONDAY...500MB GFSE PERTURBATIONS BECOME COMPLETELY MISALIGNED AND
OUT OF PHASE. THUS...SPECIFICS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY ARE
VERY LOW IN CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SRN EDGE OF THE OVERRUNNING RAIN IS WORKING NORTH QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
MORNING AS THE STEADY RAIN ENDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTN.
AS THE LOW MOVES NE AFT 00Z...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. SHRA WILL MIX WITH...THEN CHANGE TO SN. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL DROP TO IFR WITH THE CHANGE TO SNOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE CAA. THE STEADY SNOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
12Z...ALLOWING CIGS AND VSBYS TO RISE SLIGHTLY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1117 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will begin to clear out of NW Arkansas and all areas
will be VFR after 21z. Wind gusts will subside late this
afternoon, with another frontal passage tonight bringing a small
increase in NW winds after 06z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Departing upper level low continues to result in gusty northwest
winds in much of the area with some low clouds persisting across
NW Arkansas into far NE Oklahoma. Overall trend through today
will be gradual clearing with decrease in wind speeds, especially
by late afternoon. A few small changes made to reflect current
trends but overall, the short term forecast is in good shape.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will persist into this afternoon at KFYV/KXNA/KROG.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Gusty northwest winds today will diminish this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Precipitation is beginning taper off across far eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas this morning. Most of the precipitation has
transitioned back to rain at all the observation stations across
western Arkansas. The HRRR has the precipitation moving out of the
forecast area by 10z. Will be cancelling the Winter Weather Advisory
before 8 am expiration time. Same goes for the Wind Advisory. Have not
seen any wind gusts in the 40 mph range in some time. Otherwise, skies
will clear out from west to east across the area as the storm system
currently over western Tennessee moves off to the north-northeast.
A cold front will move through the region Tonight and will keep
temperatures generally below normal for this time of year through
Friday morning. A warm up ensues Friday and especially over the
weekend as the low level winds become south-southwesterly. Another
cold front moves through the region Sunday night with no precipitation
expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come
as we move into the Tue-Wed time frame as the next storm system approaches.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 54 31 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 54 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 45 28 45 25 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 46 30 45 26 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 53 32 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 48 30 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
F10 55 33 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 56 34 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1012 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Departing upper level low continues to result in gusty northwest
winds in much of the area with some low clouds persisting across
NW Arkansas into far NE Oklahoma. Overall trend through today
will be gradual clearing with decrease in wind speeds, especially
by late afternoon. A few small changes made to reflect current
trends but overall, the short term forecast is in good shape.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will persist into this afternoon at KFYV/KXNA/KROG.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Gusty northwest winds today will diminish this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Precipitation is beginning taper off across far eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas this morning. Most of the precipitation has
transitioned back to rain at all the observation stations across
western Arkansas. The HRRR has the precipitation moving out of the
forecast area by 10z. Will be cancelling the Winter Weather Advisory
before 8 am expiration time. Same goes for the Wind Advisory. Have not
seen any wind gusts in the 40 mph range in some time. Otherwise, skies
will clear out from west to east across the area as the storm system
currently over western Tennessee moves off to the north-northeast.
A cold front will move through the region Tonight and will keep
temperatures generally below normal for this time of year through
Friday morning. A warm up ensues Friday and especially over the
weekend as the low level winds become south-southwesterly. Another
cold front moves through the region Sunday night with no precipitation
expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come
as we move into the Tue-Wed time frame as the next storm system approaches.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 54 31 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 54 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 45 28 45 25 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 46 30 45 26 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 53 32 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 48 30 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
F10 55 33 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 56 34 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
539 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will persist into this afternoon at KFYV/KXNA/KROG.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Gusty northwest winds today will diminish this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Precipitation is beginning taper off across far eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas this morning. Most of the precipitation has
transitioned back to rain at all the observation stations across
western Arkansas. The HRRR has the precipitation moving out of the
forecast area by 10z. Will be cancelling the Winter Weather Advisory
before 8 am expiration time. Same goes for the Wind Advisory. Have not
seen any wind gusts in the 40 mph range in some time. Otherwise, skies
will clear out from west to east across the area as the storm system
currently over western Tennessee moves off to the north-northeast.
A cold front will move through the region Tonight and will keep
temperatures generally below normal for this time of year through
Friday morning. A warm up ensues Friday and especially over the
weekend as the low level winds become south-southwesterly. Another
cold front moves through the region Sunday night with no precipitation
expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come
as we move into the Tue-Wed time frame as the next storm system approaches.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
308 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Precipitation is beginning taper off across far eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas this morning. Most of the precipitation has
transitioned back to rain at all the observation stations across
western Arkansas. The HRRR has the precipitation moving out of the
forecast area by 10z. Will be cancelling the Winter Weather Advisory
before 8 am expiration time. Same goes for the Wind Advisory. Have not
seen any wind gusts in the 40 mph range in some time. Otherwise, skies
will clear out from west to east across the area as the storm system
currently over western Tennessee moves off to the north-northeast.
A cold front will move through the region Tonight and will keep
temperatures generally below normal for this time of year through
Friday morning. A warm up ensues Friday and especially over the
weekend as the low level winds become south-southwesterly. Another
cold front moves through the region Sunday night with no precipitation
expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come
as we move into the Tue-Wed time frame as the next storm system approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 54 31 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 54 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 45 28 45 25 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 46 30 45 26 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 53 32 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 48 30 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
F10 55 33 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 56 34 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-
002-010-011-019-020.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ARZ001-002-
010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...
2406/2506 TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/
UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY, TD, WIND, AND TEMP GRIDS. PLEASE
SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
MID TO UPPER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW IS NOW BEING
OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OK BUT SFC WETBULBS ARE TOO HIGH ACROSS OUR
FA. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NW OK AND SKIES
ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CLEAR THERE SO EXPECT SOME MIN TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 20S BY EARLY MORNING THERE AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.
ADJUSTED WINDS THROUGH 12Z CLOSER TO THE HRRR OUTPUT SINCE IT
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THEM. THE SAME WAS DONE FOR
DEWPOINTS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WERE MADE, SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS NW OK. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 57 32 53 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 32 60 31 54 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 60 34 57 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 26 59 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 32 55 30 50 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 37 57 36 56 / 70 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
801 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TN/KY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG A FAST MOVING
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIRECT COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESO OBS/IRIS DATABASE STILL SHOWING SEVERAL SITES AT 30-33F AT
07Z BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TO THE UPSIDE. CONSIDERED ENDING FZRA
ADVY EARLY WITH FREEZING PCPN BEING HIGHLY LOCALIZED...BUT
DECIDED TO LET IT RUN THE COURSE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN DELAYS
ALREADY IN EFFECT. HRRR KEEPS BAND OF STEADIER RAIN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN PA WEST OF I-99 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
AREA IN RELATIVE PCPN MINIMUM WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WEDGE FRONT/LOW LEVEL CAD SHOULD ERODE
FROM SOUTH- NORTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIRES
NCAR ENS MEAN LIFTED INDEX. THE STABLE AIR BELOW TYPICALLY
STUBBORN INVERSION WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY WARM/MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /HIRES ENS MEAN MUCAPES AROUND 500-750
J/KG/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH RAMP-UP OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
POWERFUL 100+KT MID/UPPER JET...AND ARRIVAL OF 1-1.5 INCH PWS VIA
60-70KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL OR PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN WILL BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
RATES/FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY WITH CENTRAL PA FFG VALUES RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE WPC HAS MAINTAINED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. UTILIZED WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF
AMTS WHICH RANGE BTWN 0.75 INCHES IN THE LAURELS TO ~ 1.50 INCHES
FOCUSED INTO THE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS WHERE TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 60KT AND STORM MOTIONS
LIKELY OVER 50KT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING/FLOW AND
FAVORABLE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS NOT SURPRISING
TO SEE THE HIRES GUIDANCE DEPICT A LINE OF LOW TOPPED HEAVY
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CROSSING THE CWA BTWN 21-03Z WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN HWO.
HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WX RISK SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT/STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING INTO CENTRAL PA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM TRACKING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD
TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
MARGINALLY WARM BLYR TEMPS AND ROAD SFC MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ACCUMULATIONS INITIALLY. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD
A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PA. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN ON FRIDAY AND COME TO AN END FRI NGT
AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE NICELY SAT-SUN AS SW FLOW BRINGS
MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LOW PRES TRACKING
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SUN-MON...BRINGING RISK OF RAIN/SNOW TO START NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE SFC PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT NEITHER MODEL INDICATES ANY HIGH IMPACT WX SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT MOVE TO THE NORTH...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY IFR IS AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD ENVELOP CENTRAL PA TODAY THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER
STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRACKS INTO
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN LLWS. EXPECT WINDS ALOFT OF 60 TO 70 KTS AROUND 2KFT.
THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z...AND
ENDING BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 03Z TO 09Z FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH. IFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z
AND FROM MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN 09Z TO 12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
659 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TN/KY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG A FAST MOVING
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIRECT COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630AM UPDATE...ICING RISK NOW VERY LIMITED TO HIGHEST RIDGES WEST
OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR INTO RURAL NCENTRAL PA. DON`T FEEL IT WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE/IMPACT AND THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE THE HEADLINE ENDING ON SCHEDULE.
MESO OBS/IRIS DATABASE STILL SHOWING SEVERAL SITES AT 30-33F AT
07Z BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TO THE UPSIDE. CONSIDERED ENDING FZRA
ADVY EARLY WITH FREEZING PCPN BEING HIGHLY LOCALIZED...BUT
DECIDED TO LET IT RUN THE COURSE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN DELAYS
ALREADY IN EFFECT. HRRR KEEPS BAND OF STEADIER RAIN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN PA WEST OF I-99 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
AREA IN RELATIVE PCPN MINIMUM WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WEDGE FRONT/LOW LEVEL CAD SHOULD ERODE
FROM SOUTH- NORTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIRES
NCAR ENS MEAN LIFTED INDEX. THE STABLE AIR BELOW TYPICALLY
STUBBORN INVERSION WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY WARM/MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /HIRES ENS MEAN MUCAPES AROUND 500-750
J/KG/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH RAMP-UP OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
POWERFUL 100+KT MID/UPPER JET...AND ARRIVAL OF 1-1.5 INCH PWS VIA
60-70KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL OR PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN WILL BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
RATES/FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY WITH CENTRAL PA FFG VALUES RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE WPC HAS MAINTAINED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. UTILIZED WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF
AMTS WHICH RANGE BTWN 0.75 INCHES IN THE LAURELS TO ~ 1.50 INCHES
FOCUSED INTO THE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS WHERE TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 60KT AND STORM MOTIONS
LIKELY OVER 50KT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING/FLOW AND
FAVORABLE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS NOT SURPRISING
TO SEE THE HIRES GUIDANCE DEPICT A LINE OF LOW TOPPED HEAVY
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CROSSING THE CWA BTWN 21-03Z WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN HWO.
HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WX RISK SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT/STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING INTO CENTRAL PA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM TRACKING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD
TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
MARGINALLY WARM BLYR TEMPS AND ROAD SFC MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ACCUMULATIONS INITIALLY. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD
A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PA. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN ON FRIDAY AND COME TO AN END FRI NGT
AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE NICELY SAT-SUN AS SW FLOW BRINGS
MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LOW PRES TRACKING
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SUN-MON...BRINGING RISK OF RAIN/SNOW TO START NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE SFC PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT NEITHER MODEL INDICATES ANY HIGH IMPACT WX SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT MOVE TO THE NORTH...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY IFR IS AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT UNV AND IPT WHICH ARE MVFR. CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ENVELOP CENTRAL PA...ALLOWING
FOR IFR BY 10Z.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BEYOND THE LOW CEILINGS
AND AREAS OF FOG...WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN. TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA ARE NOT FAR
FROM FREEZING...ANY DROP OFF AT ALL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LIGHT ICING.
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET TRACKS INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN LLWS. EXPECT WINDS ALOFT OF 60 TO 70 KTS AROUND
2KFT. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 13Z TO
15Z...AND ENDING BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE
REGION.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...WINDY WITH RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
411 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TN/KY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG A FAST MOVING
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIRECT COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESO OBS/IRIS DATABASE STILL SHOWING SEVERAL SITES AT 30-33F AT
07Z BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TO THE UPSIDE. CONSIDERED ENDING FZRA
ADVY EARLY WITH FREEZING PCPN BEING HIGHLY LOCALIZED...BUT
DECIDED TO LET IT RUN THE COURSE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN DELAYS
ALREADY IN EFFECT. HRRR KEEPS BAND OF STEADIER RAIN CURRENTLY
OVER WRN PA WEST OF I-99 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z...LEAVING MUCH OF THE
AREA IN RELATIVE PCPN MINIMUM WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WEDGE FRONT/LOW LEVEL CAD SHOULD ERODE
FROM SOUTH- NORTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIRES
NCAR ENS MEAN LIFTED INDEX. THE STABLE AIR BELOW TYPICALLY
STUBBORN INVERSION WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY WARM/MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /HIRES ENS MEAN MUCAPES AROUND 500-750
J/KG/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH RAMP-UP OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
POWERFUL 100+KT MID/UPPER JET...AND ARRIVAL OF 1-1.5 INCH PWS VIA
60-70KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL OR PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN WILL BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
RATES/FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY WITH CENTRAL PA FFG VALUES RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE WPC HAS MAINTAINED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. UTILIZED WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF
AMTS WHICH RANGE BTWN 0.75 INCHES IN THE LAURELS TO ~ 1.50 INCHES
FOCUSED INTO THE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS WHERE TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 60KT AND STORM MOTIONS
LIKELY OVER 50KT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING/FLOW AND
FAVORABLE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS NOT SURPRISING
TO SEE THE HIRES GUIDANCE DEPICT A LINE OF LOW TOPPED HEAVY
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CROSSING THE CWA BTWN 21-03Z WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN HWO.
HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WX RISK SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT/STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING INTO CENTRAL PA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM TRACKING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD
TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
MARGINALLY WARM BLYR TEMPS AND ROAD SFC MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ACCUMULATIONS INITIALLY. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD
A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PA. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN ON FRIDAY AND COME TO AN END FRI NGT
AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE NICELY SAT-SUN AS SW FLOW BRINGS
MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LOW PRES TRACKING
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SUN-MON...BRINGING RISK OF RAIN/SNOW TO START NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE SFC PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT NEITHER MODEL INDICATES ANY HIGH IMPACT WX SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT MOVE TO THE NORTH...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY IFR IS AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT UNV AND IPT WHICH ARE MVFR. CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ENVELOP CENTRAL PA...ALLOWING
FOR IFR BY 10Z.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BEYOND THE LOW CEILINGS
AND AREAS OF FOG...WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN. TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA ARE NOT FAR
FROM FREEZING...ANY DROP OFF AT ALL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LIGHT ICING.
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET TRACKS INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN LLWS. EXPECT WINDS ALOFT OF 60 TO 70 KTS AROUND
2KFT. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 13Z TO
15Z...AND ENDING BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE
REGION.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT...WINDY WITH RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY AND SWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM...WITH STRONG LLVL WINDS AND DEEP MIXING...MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT IS REALIZING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45 KT
RANGE...OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 48 KTS. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF TREES FALLING DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES. GIVEN THE WET SOILS
LOOSENING ROOTS...EVEN SUB-WARNING WINDS ARE KNOCKING DOWN MORE
TREES THAN USUAL. SO HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL THE PIEDMONT AND THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS
UNTIL 7 PM. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WIND
ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD THRU MIDNIGHT.
AS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATED...THE LINE OF
STORMS ARE QUICKLY CROSSING THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWFA...ALREADY EAST
OF I-77. A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS LINE...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO BE CLEARED SOON.
AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
WANING...BUT WILL LEAVE UP THE PORTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE LINE OF
CONVECTION. THE REST OF THE WATCH WAS CANCELED.
AS OF 1000 AM...THE WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT AS
EXPECTED...WITH JUST THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT STILL IN THE WEDGE. THE LAPS AND RAP CAPE ANALYSES SHOWING
THE UNCOVERED AIR MASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE...WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. THIS POCKET OF BEST
INSTABILITY IS LINING UP WITH DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE
NC ESCARPMENT TO AROUND GREENWOOD SC. THIS BROKEN LINE WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST...WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND WIND/HAIL/TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING. THE LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE SLGT RISK TO THE EAST...NOW JUST
BARELY CLIPPING THE EASTERN TIER OF OUR COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LINE UP BEST FOR MORE ROBUST
SUPERCELLS. THE RAP 0-1 KM EHI OVER 1 EAST OF I-77 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR. TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT
LOOKS TO BE WINDS...BOTH IN CONVECTION AND JUST WITH MIXING. THE
LATEST NAM AND HIGH RES/NEAR TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING SOLID
30-40 MPH GUSTS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA FROM MIDDAY THRU THE
EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST POSSIBLE. THE WIND
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK.
THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT APPEARS
VERY INTERESTING AFTER MID MORNING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN
A VERY LOW LFC...GENERALLY 2 KFT. HELICITY BETWEEN 0-1 KM IS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 250-300 M2/S2 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN
FOOTHILLS. INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
EASILY INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND NE UPSTATE OF SC IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDGE BOUNDARY...REACHING 600-900 J/KG. IN
FACT...MID DAY VALUES OF EHI OVER KCLT NEAR 2.5 ACCORDING TO THE
NAM. IN ADDITION...GFS360 INDICATES THAT A BELT OF H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTER HOURS. CAMS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY APPEAR VERY
REALISTIC GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT...SHOWING LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A ISOLATED TORNADO. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SVR TSRA IN THE HWO AND THE FORECAST. THE
SECOND HAZARD IS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SO FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS BLOCKING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FROM REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS AND
PRESENT HIGH STREAM FLOWS WOULD YIELD EASY CONDITIONS FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO DEVELOP...NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE
SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY YIELD DOWNED TREES
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...I WILL KEEP WIND HEADLINES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. EXTENDING WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE MTNS TO MATCH FOOTHILL
AND PIEDMONT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...CAA...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NC MTNS. GIVEN THE TIMING
THE CAA...PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER THE -SN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FLOW WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SHSN ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE
MANY AREAS ALONG THE TN LINE WILL SEE AROUND TWO INCHES ON THE
GROUND BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. WE WILL POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD LOOKING
SITUATION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...DOMINATED MAINLY BY AN
UPPER TROF LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS...
MAINLY NEAR THE TN BORDER...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
DEEP THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THICKNESS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY AS SNOW EVEN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES IN SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS. ON THE ONE
HAND...THE FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT DOES VEER AROUND TO A MORE NW DIRECTION
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WHAT THE SITUATION LACKS IN
MECHANICAL FORCING WILL BE MADE UP BY SFC-BASED CAPE AROUND 100-150
J/KG HELPING TO FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAIN ZONES NEAR THE TN BORDER.
THE BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OUTSIDE THE MTNS...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK CONTAINMENT WITHOUT ANY
UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT RESULTS IN A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME 40KT WIND UP
AROUND 750-800 MB. EXPECT A WINDY DAY OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE OWING
TO ONGOING THREATS TODAY.
THE NW FLOW MOISTURE PULLS OUT ON FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THRU THE BOTTOM OF THE
UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISAGREE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS...AS THEY DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP...
EVEN WITH A FINAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NW UPSLOPE
REGION. A DRY FCST WAS INHERITED...SO A CHANGE WILL NOT BE MADE AT
THIS POINT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF FINALLY SLIPPING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND CAROLINAS THRU SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE
RESPONSE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN THE GFS DOES NOT BRING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL PUSH BACK THE PRECIP CHANCE
REACHING THE MTNS UNTIL LATER IN THAT PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
REACHES THE MTNS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY SHOULD BE LIQUID. BEYOND
THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL
APART AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING...AS DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
LLVL WIND FIELD IS COMBINING TO PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 30-40
KT RANGE...AND OCCASIONALLY 40-48 KT ACROSS THE UPSTATE. THE LINE OF
CONVECTION IS JUST EXITING EAST OF KCLT AT TIME OF 18Z TAF.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT AREA RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS HAS WANED. A LOW VFR
CUMULUS DECK IS WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH...WITH SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER SNEAKING AROUND THE MTNS FROM
THE SW INTO THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THIS THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK
IN...BUT GENERALLY 4000 TO 6000 FT. GUIDANCE WANTS TO LOWER CIGS TO
MVFR AT KAND FOR EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL GO WITH 3500 FT FOR NOW.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...AS FLOW VEERS TO MORE
WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPING INCREASES. GUSTY
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY.
AT KAVL...WITH THE WINDS BEING MORE ACROSS THE VALLEY...GUSTS ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS IN THE PIEDMONT...BUT STILL GUSTY OUT OF THE SW.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW LATER THIS EVENING...AND SOME LOW VFR OR MVFR
CLOUDS SHOULD WORK UP THE VALLEY FORM THE N. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...SO WILL GO WITH PROB30.
OUTLOOK...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER. DRYING EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 93% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 97% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% MED 67% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-035-
048>050-053-065-501>510.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037-
051-052-056>059-062>064-068>072-082.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR NCZ036-037-051-052-056>059-062>064-068>072-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-069>072-082.
SC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
019.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY AND SWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...THE WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT AS
EXPECTED...WITH JUST THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT STILL IN THE WEDGE. THE LAPS AND RAP CAPE ANALYSES SHOWING
THE UNCOVERED AIR MASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE...WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. THIS POCKET OF BEST
INSTABILITY IS LINING UP WITH DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE
NC ESCARPMENT TO AROUND GREENWOOD SC. THIS BROKEN LINE WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST...WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND WIND/HAIL/TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING. THE LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE SLGT RISK TO THE EAST...NOW JUST
BARELY CLIPPING THE EASTERN TIER OF OUR COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LINE UP BEST FOR MORE ROBUST
SUPERCELLS. THE RAP 0-1 KM EHI OVER 1 EAST OF I-77 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR. TO THE
WEST...THERE IS A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT
LOOKS TO BE WINDS...BOTH IN CONVECTION AND JUST WITH MIXING. THE
LATEST NAM AND HIGH RES/NEAR TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING SOLID
30-40 MPH GUSTS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA FROM MIDDAY THRU THE
EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST POSSIBLE. THE WIND
HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK.
THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT APPEARS
VERY INTERESTING AFTER MID MORNING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN
A VERY LOW LFC...GENERALLY 2 KFT. HELICITY BETWEEN 0-1 KM IS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 250-300 M2/S2 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN
FOOTHILLS. INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
EASILY INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND NE UPSTATE OF SC IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDGE BOUNDARY...REACHING 600-900 J/KG. IN
FACT...MID DAY VALUES OF EHI OVER KCLT NEAR 2.5 ACCORDING TO THE
NAM. IN ADDITION...GFS360 INDICATES THAT A BELT OF H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTER HOURS. CAMS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY APPEAR VERY
REALISTIC GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT...SHOWING LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A ISOLATED TORNADO. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SVR TSRA IN THE HWO AND THE FORECAST. THE
SECOND HAZARD IS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SO FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS BLOCKING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
FROM REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS AND
PRESENT HIGH STREAM FLOWS WOULD YIELD EASY CONDITIONS FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO DEVELOP...NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE
SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY YIELD DOWNED TREES
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...I WILL KEEP WIND HEADLINES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. EXTENDING WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE MTNS TO MATCH FOOTHILL
AND PIEDMONT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...CAA...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NC MTNS. GIVEN THE TIMING
THE CAA...PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER THE -SN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FLOW WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SHSN ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE
MANY AREAS ALONG THE TN LINE WILL SEE AROUND TWO INCHES ON THE
GROUND BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. WE WILL POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD LOOKING
SITUATION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...DOMINATED MAINLY BY AN
UPPER TROF LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS...
MAINLY NEAR THE TN BORDER...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
DEEP THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THICKNESS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY AS SNOW EVEN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES IN SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS. ON THE ONE
HAND...THE FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT DOES VEER AROUND TO A MORE NW DIRECTION
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WHAT THE SITUATION LACKS IN
MECHANICAL FORCING WILL BE MADE UP BY SFC-BASED CAPE AROUND 100-150
J/KG HELPING TO FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAIN ZONES NEAR THE TN BORDER.
THE BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OUTSIDE THE MTNS...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK CONTAINMENT WITHOUT ANY
UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT RESULTS IN A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME 40KT WIND UP
AROUND 750-800 MB. EXPECT A WINDY DAY OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE OWING
TO ONGOING THREATS TODAY.
THE NW FLOW MOISTURE PULLS OUT ON FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THRU THE BOTTOM OF THE
UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISAGREE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS...AS THEY DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP...
EVEN WITH A FINAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NW UPSLOPE
REGION. A DRY FCST WAS INHERITED...SO A CHANGE WILL NOT BE MADE AT
THIS POINT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF FINALLY SLIPPING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND CAROLINAS THRU SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE
RESPONSE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN THE GFS DOES NOT BRING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL PUSH BACK THE PRECIP CHANCE
REACHING THE MTNS UNTIL LATER IN THAT PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
REACHES THE MTNS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY SHOULD BE LIQUID. BEYOND
THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL
APART AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH MID MORNING.
UNTIL THE WEDGE ERODES...CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE IN THE VLIFR TO LIFR
LEVELS AND IFR VIS AND STEADY ENE WINDS. IN ADDITION...ROUNDS OF
MODERATE SHRA WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WITH STRENGTHENING LLVL
LIFT. AS THE RETREATING WEDGE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THIS
MORNING...LLWS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...AS THE WARM SECTOR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MID
TO LATE MORNING...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTH WITH REGULAR GUSTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...ENDING LLWS. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING A MENTION
OF LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON TSRA. BY THIS LATE AFTERNOON...TSRA
WILL END AND SKY WILL MIX TO VFR. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AT KAVL...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR
MUCH OF TODAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AS NW WINDS DEVELOP
AND SUPPORTS UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER.
OUTLOOK...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER. DRYING EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 79% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 64% MED 75% LOW 58% MED 65%
KHKY MED 72% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 72% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 76% HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ051-052-
058-059-062>064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
446 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM THIS LOWS WITH A COLD
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE AL/MS LINE AT PRESENT TIME. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM
FRONT STILL TO THE SOUTH. GRADIENT WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY
STRONG AND HAVE SEEN GUST AT KCHA ALREADY UP TO 32 KTS. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO
THE SYSTEM ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS AT 850 MB IN THE 50 TO 60 KT
RANGE. EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT FLOW IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
MOUNTAINS...HAVE ONLY SEEN A WIND GUST READING OF UP TO 40 KTS AT
CAMP CREEK...WINDS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. FOR NOW...THE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOST
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHEORM WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
HI-RES MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL COME OUT OF THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. SO
FAR...REPORTS AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS BEEN LIMITED. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST. PW VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN NEAR
1.25 INCHES WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH IN THESE COUNTIES. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN LATER THIS
MORNING AND MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH LATER ON THE DAY
SHIFT. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE YET
AND WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 18Z. BY THIS
TIME...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...DID EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE AREA. IN
FACT...THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES.
THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL WRAP COLD AIR IN BEHIND IT TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE -10 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WILL BE ENHANCED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP THANKS TO THE IMPRESSIVE
COLD AIR AT 850 MB. THIS WILL CREATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN/NC LINE...THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AND SW VIRGINIA. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THESE AREAS WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN/NC LINE. PW
VALUES REMAIN LOW AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT CONTINUED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL ENHANCE PRECIP. DEVELOPMENT. A FEW FACTORS WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...THE MAIN ONE BEING THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE SNOWFALL. EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY WILL RANGE FROM JUST UNDER AN
INCH IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA TO A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH FOR THE
KNOXVILLE AREA.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR US AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 50`S TO 60`S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THINGS QUIET UNTIL
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL CHANCES IS
RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEE ALL RAIN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A FEW OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS
THAT GET A BIT OF SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 37 43 29 / 80 60 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 36 40 28 / 80 70 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 35 40 28 / 90 70 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 32 36 25 / 80 70 70 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-MCMINN-NW
BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-
WASHINGTON TN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-
JOHNSON-MCMINN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR BRADLEY-EAST POLK-
HAMILTON-MARION-WEST POLK.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-
UNION-WEST POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-WISE.
&&
$$
MA/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MS AT THIS TIME. THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW IS NOTICEABLY STRONGER
THAN THE MODEL PROGS. THOSE MODEL PROGS STILL BRING A GOOD ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CURRENT MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AL...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
MOVING NORTHWARD. HRRR IS ALSO IN LINE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVING
OUR WAY.
ON THE WATER VAP IMAGERY...YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN TX. PVA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE AND THEREBY...YOU HAVE A STRONGER SFC
LOW. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND RESIDES ABOVE STRONG
LOWER LEVEL AND UP TO 850 MB FORCING. 90+ MRH AREA IS RATHER
EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD COVER THE MID STATE THROUGH ABOUT 9Z.
LOOKING AT FFG LEVELS...THE DATA WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. IT
APPEARS THAT 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR IS THE THRESHOLD. FOR 6
HRS...2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES IS NEEDED. BEST INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL
REACH INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 10 PM. TSTM FORMATION WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS. OTW...NO FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED GOING FORWARD.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AROUND 1 INCH TOTAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...UP TO
1 1/2 INCHES SOUTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW BUT WILL BE REISSUING THE SPS BY 10
PM WHEN IT EXPIRES. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE SPS WITH
THAT UPCOMING ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IN STORE AS QUASI STACKED SFC/UPPER
LEVEL LOWS MOVE FROM N MS NEWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 25/06Z. BEST PROXIMITY OF SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO
MID STATE LOOK TO BE IN THE 24/06Z-24/09Z TIME FRAME. SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR CKV...DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. STILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THRU 25/06Z PER
ACTUAL CEILING AND VSBY FLUCTUATIONS. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS CKV/BNA AND LIFR CEILINGS CKV/IFR VSBYS
THRU 25/06Z. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO...ACROSS...
AND EXITS THE MID STATE REGION...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS...WITH NE/E WINDS SHIFTING TO W/NW AS SYSTEM
MOVES NEWD INTO ERN OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 25/06Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
NOT A BIG UPDATE TONIGHT. AS PER GOING FORECAST...SNOW
DIMINISHING WHILE MOVING TOWARD EASTERN WISCONSIN. CAMS ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW WET ROADS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...RADARS SHOWING A TAD CONVECTIVE LOOK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA. SOME MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WITH SLIGHT 850 WAA
INTO COLDER H7 TEMPS OF -14 C. ISSUED A SPS FOR NC WI FOR AN INCH
OR TWO THIS EVENING.
AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...A FEW HOLES BRIEFLY OPEN UP BUT
SAT TRENDS DO NOT SHOW SIG CLEARING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. STILL LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY PRODUCING SOME 3-5
MILE MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER THE
GULF COAST. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES NORTH.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE SHEARED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNTIL IT DOES SO...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND COULD CLIP THE SHORELINE
AROUND MANITOWOC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN VILAS CO. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY. SOME GUSTS TO
30 OR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND THE FOX
VALLEY. CONTINUED MILD TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE WEEKEND FORECAST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUM
SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH RESPECT TO THE EFFECTS OF
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDS/WEDS NGT. STILL ONLY EXPECTING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN EC WI ON WEDS/WEDS NGT...AND GALES ON LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM...SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
VILAS COUNTY THU/THU NGT.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
+2 TO +6 C ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GET WELL
INTO THE 40S IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
50 DEGREES AT THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRACK TAKING IT THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
IN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
LOW. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH COUPLED UPPER
JETS AND SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE ON DECREASE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WHILE
POCKETS OF VFR CIGS WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. ANTICIPATE
MORE LIFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
415 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY.
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION LEAVING US
WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...BUT BRISK
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING A MAINLY CLEAR SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EST...STILL LOOKING AT SOME UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
HOWEVER RADAR REFLECTIVITY`S HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST
HOUR...IMPLYING SNOWFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THIS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH TO
FLURRIES OR ALL END TOGETHER BY 5AM OR SO....AT LEAST OVER EASTERN
TERRAIN. THE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...AND OCCASIONALLY A FEW FRAGMENTED BANDS
WILL WORK INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT BUT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN...SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS...
WITH LITTLE OR NONE IN THE VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE...RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS...WELL DOWN INT0 THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND EVEN INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE NUMBERS WILL DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH DAWN.
THE WIND HAS INCREASED AS THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES WERE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALBANY HAD A PEAK
WIND GUST TO 44 MPH AND NORTH ADAMS TO 46 MPH. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE RISE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AFTER SUNRISE.
WHILE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...INCREASED MIXING WITH HEATING WILL CERTAINLY KEEP
A STRONG BREEZE GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOK FOR THE WIND
TO AVERAGE 10-20 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
THESE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO AROUND -15C TODAY. NORMALLY SUCH TEMPERATURES
WOULD INSURE BELOW FREEZING HIGHS. HOWEVER GIVEN IT IS LATE FEBRUARY
WITH A SUN ANGLE UP TO 37 DEGREES AT ALBANY...AND THE EXCELLENT MIXING
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND FREEZING IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...
AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COLDER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 20S...EXCEPT
15-20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES
ABOUT 10-15 COLDER THAN THIS VALUES...VERY COLD BUT NOT THAT CLOSE
TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WIND ONLY SLOWLY ABATE SINCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST WELL TO OUR SOUTH...KEEPING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL NOT ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
HOWEVER...LOWS WILL STILL DIP BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...
TEENS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...SINGLE NUMBERS WELL
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. IT STAYS A BIT
BREEZY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO 35-40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES WILL BE SPOT ON FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE LEADING OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS
THAT EARLIER IN THE WEEK LOOKED TO HAVE BEEN AIMED AT OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS WILL PASS WELL NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT WELL NORTH OF I90 SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW INNOCUOUS SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL DUE TO
THE CLOUD AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...20S TO AROUND 30.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND
H850 TEMPERATURES SLATED TO RISE TO AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE 0C...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH 50-55 FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...40S EVEN NORTH. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 10-15 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CYCLONE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON
MOISTURE/STABILITY PROFILES AND THE DEGREE OF MIXING...WINDS COULD
END UP BEING QUITE STRONG AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SYSTEM
DOES LOOK QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH A FAST-MOVING OPEN WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT. SO MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF
ALBANY. TEMPS INITIALLY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN...BUT
WILL THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP LOOK TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH NO REAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE VICINITY.
MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE DUE TO A POWERFUL STORM
EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND TRACK ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE EVENTUAL TRACK LOOK TO BE JUST WEST OF
OUR REGION ONCE AGAIN...LIKELY PUTTING US ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH MAINLY RAIN AS PTYPE. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STORM TRACK AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY TRACK BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS COULD
MEAN MORE OF A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TIMING VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
AS WELL...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN IMPACTS FORM THE STORM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS MORE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO BOTTOM LINE IS THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIP IN A 6-12 HOUR TIME
WINDOW...BUT THE DETAILS IN TIMING AND PTYPE ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRETTY STRONG WINDS WERE BUFFETING MAINLY KALB THIS EARLY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS NOTED WITH THE 09Z METAR. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET HAS ENHANCED THESE WINDS BUT SHOULD LIFT
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...INCREASED MIXING WITH KEEP
THE GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THEY WILL AVERAGE 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT KPOU AND KGFL
AND AROUND 30KTS AT KPSF AND KALB...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KTS AT TIMES.
UPSLOPE SNOWS WERE WEAKENING AT KPSF...BUT COULD NEVERTHELESS
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITY
IN SNOW (2SM) THROUGH 10Z.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH 10Z...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
(EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE A VCSH WILL SUFFICE).
AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS CIGS SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AROUND 4 KFT AGL. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING PEAK...BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE
(BUT NOT COMPLETELY) TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TODAY WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MOST...IF NOT ALL WATERSHEDS HAVE CRESTED AND WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
303 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN UPSLOPE WIND WILL
ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING AN END
TO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. IT WILL BE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BRISK AND CHILLY DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EST...RADARS HAVE DETECTED ENHANCED AREAS OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES LOOK TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WE
DID HAVE ONE TWITTER REPORT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN LENOX MA.
THIS UPSLOPE WAS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORT
WAVE...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 400 AM OR SO AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ANTICYCLONIC...DRYING THE COLUMN OUT.
UNTIL THEN...1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SNOW LOOKS TO ACCUMULATE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREENS...BERKSHIRES AND EVEN INTO THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS.
OTHER LESS IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE SNOWS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE DETECTED IN REMAINING AREAS...EVEN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK.
A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH (ESPECIALLY IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST VALLEY AREAS...
CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATER TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST
TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. IN ADDITION...W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE 15-25 MPH AT TIMES...MAKING IT FEELS EVEN COLDER. THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH MORE
CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS...THANKS TO SOME LAKE MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOT FAR FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CHILLY FOR FRI NIGHT...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START TO BE
RISING ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S FOR SATURDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT
NIGHT. THERE WILL A STRONG W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SO TEMPS WON/T BE QUITE AS COLD...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH OVERALL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
INITIALLY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN...SNOW OR A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AREAS...AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE BY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW FROM NW TO SE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES ON MONDAY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP.
FOR MON NT-WED NT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. THE REMAINING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
CLIPPER MAY REMAIN CLOSE BY...AS A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES EAST LATE
MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...ESP ACROSS CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN AREAS. THEN...A POSSIBLE STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK/S STORM...MAY TRACK TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OR GREAT LAKES REGION ON WED. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TRACK...AS THERE ARE SOME
12Z/25 GEFS MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION ON THE COLDER SIDE AND A
POSSIBLE SNOW OR WINTRY MIX SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE N/W TRACK...ALLOWING FOR A
WARMER/WETTER SCENARIO OVERALL...AFTER A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WED AM. WE HAVE SIDED WITH THIS OVERALL IDEA FOR
NOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX WED AM FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND RAIN
ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVE...TAPERING TO SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE STORM/S WAKE FOR THURSDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...WE EXPECT FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHERE SUN AFTERNOON
TEMPS COULD REACH INTO THE 50S...IF NOT WARMER. FOR AREAS MAINLY N
AND W OF ALBANY...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S. FOR SUN
NT/MON AM...MOST TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...GENERALLY IN
THE 30S...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH REMAIN ABOVE 40.
THEN...MONDAY COULD STILL BE FAIRLY MILD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR VALLEYS...AND
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TEMPS POSSIBLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. MON NT/TUE AM TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR TUE-WED...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR
NOW...SIDED WITH MILDER GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
FOR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND TUE NT/WED AM MINS MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COLDER ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COLDER...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF
THIS POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM.
FOR WED NT-THU...AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BUILDS BACK IN...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THU MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF THROUGH
10Z...WHILE ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES (INCLUDING KALB) THROUGH 10Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL (BECOMING VFR AT KPSF AFTER
13Z). LOOK FOR THE CIGS TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 13Z AT ALL
THE TERMINAL SITES. VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE UNRESTRICTED.
A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AT ALL THE TAF SITES...10-15 KTS...BUT GUSTING TO 20KTS
AT KPOU/KGFL AND 25KTS (OR A LITTLE HIGHER) AT KALB AND
KPSF.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AROUND DARK...BUT A GENTLE
BREEZE WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANYTHING
THAT FALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MOST...IF NOT ALL WATERSHEDS HAVE CRESTED AND WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
115 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN UPSLOPE WIND WILL
ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING AN END
TO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. IT WILL BE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BRISK AND CHILLY DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EST...RADARS HAVE DETECTED ENHANCED AREAS OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES LOOK TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WE
DID HAVE ONE TWITTER REPORT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN LENOX MA.
THIS UPSLOPE WAS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORT
WAVE...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 400 AM OR SO AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ANTICYCLONIC...DRYING THE COLUMN OUT.
UNTIL THEN...1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SNOW LOOKS TO ACCUMULATE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREENS...BERKSHIRES AND EVEN INTO THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS.
OTHER LESS IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE SNOWS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE DETECTED IN REMAINING AREAS...EVEN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK.
A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH (ESPECIALLY IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST VALLEY AREAS...
CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATER TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST
TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. IN ADDITION...W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE 15-25 MPH AT TIMES...MAKING IT FEELS EVEN COLDER. THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH MORE
CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS...THANKS TO SOME LAKE MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOT FAR FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE CHILLY FOR FRI NIGHT...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START TO BE
RISING ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S FOR SATURDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT
NIGHT. THERE WILL A STRONG W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SO TEMPS WON/T BE QUITE AS COLD...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH OVERALL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
INITIALLY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN...SNOW OR A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AREAS...AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE BY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW FROM NW TO SE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT
PASSES ON MONDAY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP.
FOR MON NT-WED NT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. THE REMAINING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
CLIPPER MAY REMAIN CLOSE BY...AS A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES EAST LATE
MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...ESP ACROSS CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN AREAS. THEN...A POSSIBLE STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK/S STORM...MAY TRACK TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OR GREAT LAKES REGION ON WED. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TRACK...AS THERE ARE SOME
12Z/25 GEFS MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION ON THE COLDER SIDE AND A
POSSIBLE SNOW OR WINTRY MIX SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE N/W TRACK...ALLOWING FOR A
WARMER/WETTER SCENARIO OVERALL...AFTER A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WED AM. WE HAVE SIDED WITH THIS OVERALL IDEA FOR
NOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX WED AM FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND RAIN
ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVE...TAPERING TO SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE STORM/S WAKE FOR THURSDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...WE EXPECT FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHERE SUN AFTERNOON
TEMPS COULD REACH INTO THE 50S...IF NOT WARMER. FOR AREAS MAINLY N
AND W OF ALBANY...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S. FOR SUN
NT/MON AM...MOST TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...GENERALLY IN
THE 30S...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH REMAIN ABOVE 40.
THEN...MONDAY COULD STILL BE FAIRLY MILD DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR VALLEYS...AND
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TEMPS POSSIBLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. MON NT/TUE AM TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR TUE-WED...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR
NOW...SIDED WITH MILDER GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
FOR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND TUE NT/WED AM MINS MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COLDER ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COLDER...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF
THIS POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM.
FOR WED NT-THU...AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BUILDS BACK IN...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THU MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF THROUGH
10Z...WHILE ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES (INCLUDING KALB) THROUGH 10Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL (BECOMING VFR AT KPSF AFTER
13Z). LOOK FOR THE CIGS TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 13Z AT ALL
THE TERMINAL SITES. VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE UNRESTRICTED.
A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
AT ALL THE TAF SITES...10-15 KTS...BUT GUSTING TO 20KTS
AT KPOU/KGFL AND 25KTS (OR A LITTLE HIGHER) AT KALB AND
KPSF.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AROUND DARK...BUT A GENTLE
BREEZE WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANYTHING
THAT FALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
MOST...IF NOT ALL WATERSHEDS HAVE CRESTED AND WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2016
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING
OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY PROVIDING
QUIET WEATHER. A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED BUT THE RECENT SNOWPACK
WILL TEMPER THE WARMTH INITIALLY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 20S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND 50S SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
A MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM AS SYNOPTIC SNOW COMES TO AN END AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING SOUTH AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DONE BEFORE
00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWING LAKE EFFECT BANDS SETTING UP AROUND 00Z
BUT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING.
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BRING A
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LAKE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY RISE TO
AROUND 5-6KFT FOR JUST A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 4KFT REST OF NIGHT. TRAJECTORIES AND DGZ FAVORABLE
BUT INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED WITH DELTA T/S 13-14C. HRRR AND RUC13
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT ALL DAY SHOWING LIGHT BANDS DEVELOPING
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF. GIVEN RADAR SIGNALS ALREADY HAVE SIDED
TOWARD THE HIRES GUIDANCE. ARW-WRF HAS DONE WELL THIS SEASON WITH
LES BANDS AND BLENDED IT WITH LATEST RUC FOR FORECAST. BANDS SHOWN
BY MOST MODELS TO PENETRATE RATHER FAR INLAND AND DOWN TO CENTRAL IN
AND INTO OHIO WITH HELP FROM SHORT WAVE. THEREFORE CARRIED LOW POPS
ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN BORDER. STILL THINK ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH
OR LESS GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS BUT ISOLATED 2 POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTH IF A STRONGER BAND DEVELOPS IN BRIEF BUT PRIME WINDOW.
OTHERWISE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE IN SHORT TERM. POSSIBILITY OF
NORTHEAST BEING CLEAR AFTER SHORT WAVE WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5
KNOTS OR SO LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK. CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD OR
BELOW LOWER END OF MOS. ALSO KEPT HIGHS IN LOWER END FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
WARM UP WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INITIALLY
INFLUENCED BY RIPENING AND SLOWLY MELTING SNOWPACK. AM HESITANT TO
INCREASE TEMPS TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY WHERE 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
CURRENTLY RESIDES AND AT LEAST 2 THAW/FREEZE CYCLES TO OCCUR BEFORE
WE STAY ABOVE FREEZING STARTING SATURDAY. HAVE ALLOWED HIGHS TO
REACH AT LEAST 40 ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMEST READINGS IN FAR
SOUTH. WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO PULL UP AT LEAST SOME GULF
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF DEEPER MSTR WILL
PHASES IN TIME WITH THE SYSTEM TO WARRANT EXPANDED LIKELY OR EVEN
CAT POPS SO HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY UNTOUCHED. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPE...ALL LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE SEEN INTO SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
INFLUENCE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT AS MAIN FOCUS YET
ANOTHER WAVE IN A VERY ACTIVE FLOW ENTERS THE NW STATES AND THEN
BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS VARY ON HANDLING WITH ECMWF
BRINGING A OPEN BUT EVENTUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVING THROUGH
VS GFS CUTTING OFF A DEEP UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS MI. LOTS OF
SPECULATION WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS ON THE AREA...BUT GIVEN NOTED
DIFFERENCES...PERIOD OF INTEREST PAST DAY 5 AND CRITICAL THERMAL
PROFILES/SFC LOW TRACK ALL IN QUESTIONS...HAVE TO CONSIDER JUST ABOUT
ANY FORM OF PRECIP AND WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THIS JUNCTURE FROM
FROZEN/FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE NOT
LIKELY TO INCREASE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF INTEREST
BECOMES SAMPLED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
VFR CLOUDS WERE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE. WARMER AIR WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA.
A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING WAS ALREADY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO SCATTER OUT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1137 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LITTLE OF CONCERN TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF CLOUDS. MID LEVEL VORT LOBE
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN THE MID MS VALLEY BUT ANY ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION IS ALREADY PAST IA. UPSTREAM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SHORT WAVE
IS PRODUCING A FAINT REFLECTION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND WHILE THE
FORCING WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE AS IT REACHES IA EARLY FRI MORNING
STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. LIKELY
JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE
STRATUS TRENDS WITH PATCHY HOLES PASSING BY THIS EVENING...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGESTING MORE GENERAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL RIDGE CROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STAYED A TOUCH
OVER MOS WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT FOR AWHILE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
FEW CONCERNS IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. HRRR AND OTHER
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH A PORTION
OF FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BREAK UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL MODERATE AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TRANSITIONS EAST INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE H850
TEMPERATURES RISING TO +11C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH MIXING AT LEAST
TAPPING INTO 8 TO 10C AIR BY LATE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH DURING THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARING THE I80 CORRIDOR...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
MILD START TO THE DAY WILL HELP HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35
TO 40 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DISPLACE THE SLIGHT COLD
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RENEWED WARM
UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...MODELS CONTINUE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. TODAYS CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE TRACK
MAY BE FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO MODEL RUNS...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ADVERSE WINTER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY AND
MODELS INHERENTLY STRUGGLE TO REACH A CORRECT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME
RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE MORE
NORTHWEST DRIFT IN THE MODELS THE PAST 12 HOURS THOUGH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A MORE WOUND UP STORM THAN
THE EURO AT THIS TIME DUE TO FASTER INGESTION OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR...IT ALSO HAS STRONGER WINDS AND MORE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AXIS/STRENGTH
/TRACK IS CURRENTLY ALSO POOR. THE GENERAL TREND FOR BOTH THE
GFS/EURO OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY. WILL MENTION IN UPDATED HWO THIS AFTERNOON
AND PASS ONTO SUCCEEDING SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CLEARING STARTING TO
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. WAS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH THE CIGS...AS COULD SEE A LOBE OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE
WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
The low levels continue to slowly dry out as surface high pressure
builds east from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Skies
cleared out in some areas overnight, but areas of low clouds are
returning from the north as of 08z. The main forecast issue for
today is how much low cloudiness to expect.
Model forecast soundings as well as the RAP 1000/850 mb layer mean
rh suggest that low clouds will not be quick to leave our area.
The deepest and most persistent moisture is forecast to remain
across the Evansville tri-state area today, where the forecast
will stay mostly cloudy. Elsewhere, there should be occasional
sunshine today, especially in the far western areas around kpof.
The mixed layer has become more shallow since yesterday, and there
is little evidence of any forcing for ascent. Therefore, no
mention of precip will be made. High temps will be only slightly
higher than Thursday, ranging from the lower to mid 40s in most
places.
Tonight will become mainly clear as dry southwest flow nudges the
low clouds out of our area. Low temps will average around 30
degrees.
Saturday and Saturday night will remain mostly clear as a 500 mb
shortwave ridge moves southeast across our region. Low-level
southwest flow will bring moderating temps, with highs reaching 60
in parts of southeast Missouri Saturday.
Sunday will be milder than Saturday, but the combination of strong
southwest winds and increasing high cloudiness could make it feel
cooler. The nam model has been showing 30 to 40 knots of wind in
the mixed layer (below 3000 feet). Surface wind gusts should be
within that range Sunday afternoon.
A low-amplitude 500 mb shortwave trough and its associated cold
front will move across our region on Sunday night. Moisture will
be limited, since this system is embedded in northwest flow. Will
maintain small rain chances, primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Models are struggling with the pattern in the long term. Basically
used the latest ensemble mean solutions incorporated with 50 percent
blend of our previous 2 official gridded forecasts. Should be dry
Monday, with our attention on a developing upper level system over
the Pacific NW, quickly headed for the Rockies. The models have this
strong wave somewhere over the central Plains by 12z Tuesday. Will
continue with slight chance PoPs for showers Monday night. Area wide
convective chances Tuesday. The GFS is notably slower than the
EC/GEM and other solutions. Will not completely discount it. Plan on
giving the other model consensus more weight. Continue PoPs for
rain/showers Tuesday night, though slightly lower, with diminishing
PoPs Wednesday. Have little confidence in the models from Wednesday
night into Thursday. Will carry slight/low chance PoPs given the
00z/12z EC solutions show weak s/wv energy may generate some precip
(mainly rain, mix north 1/2?) during this time frame. Temps will be
a blend of latest MOS and previous 2 forecast cycles.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
VFR cigs will remain persistent through the day in the kevv/kowb
areas. In the kpah/kcgi areas, expect occasional cigs in the vfr
category. There will likely be short intervals of mvfr cigs at all
sites, especially during the midday and afternoon hours. Low
clouds will depart our region this evening, followed by mainly
clear skies. No vsby issues are expected. Winds will be
considerably lighter than the past couple of days as high pressure
builds overhead.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
WINDS GOING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS MAKING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS ARE NOT ADVECTING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MEANING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOT MUCH COLDER. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PARTIALLY MELTING CAUSING SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND
DRIZZLE. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE PLACES ABOVE 2000 FT COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO THROUGH DAWN. FOR THAT REASON
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE PLACES ALONG WITH
RUNNING THE SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE PATTERN WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAKER...TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER KENTUCKY
WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAWN ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITH ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ALLOWING FOR LITTLE HELP
FROM SUNSHINE IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING...REACHING INTO THE MID
30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AGAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
ELEVATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE SOLIDLY REBOUND
AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...AND THE WINDS SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH...
ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN USED THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS GIVEN THE LIMITED TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE POP VALUES WERE KEPT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DECENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
EVIDENCE BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...SPREAD IN MODELS INCREASES QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY...LEADING
TO LARGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 60S. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 30 OR 35
MPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO. IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE WET FUEL CONDITIONS...WE WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE RH SHOULD DROP FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A MODEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A CATEGORY. RAIN SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR A WARM UP
WILL BE ON TAP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD EASILY BE SHIFTED FORWARD OR BACKWARD IN
TIME AS MODELS SHIFT AROUND. WHILE IT DOES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND IF WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS MORE
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO
SNOW CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW LATER
IN THE WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH BEYOND THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
CIGS WILL BE IN THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING AS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOOK FOR
CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOR MOST
SITES. HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS THESE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-118-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
400 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THIS TERM W/SOME SNOW EARLY TODAY.
LATEST RADAR LOOP HAD PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL SHOWING
A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THIS REGION W/A 35 KT AT 700 MBS MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AND WILL RE-FREEZING
OF STANDING WATER, THIS WILL MAKE FOR ICY CONDITIONS. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM INDICATED SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION W/THIS TROF TO HELP IGNITE SOME ACTIVITY. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE FOR HEAVIER ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
IS THERE THROUGH 700MBS BUT LAPSE RATES NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE.
THEREFORE, SNOWFALL FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
LIGHT(LESS THAN AN INCH AT BEST). WNW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-20
MPH ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS. NOTHING MAJOR.
UPPER TROF SWINGS BY THIS EVENING W/HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION SET
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT
ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BUT THE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MIXING IN THE BLYR TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO LOW.
MUCH COLDER HOWEVER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS W/AREAS BACK ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH AND OUT WEST DROPPING AOB ZERO(0F) W/SINGLE NUMBERS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID
20 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR SO BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
WILL BE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS
THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BUT IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
SUPPORTING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS TEH CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE COULD BE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK
BRINGING SOME SNOW OR EVEN RAIN TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FRO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY W/A TEMPO OF IFR
THIS MORNING DUE TO SNOW. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY W/A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT W/VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS. MVFR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VFR
KBGR/KBHB. VFR THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SNOW WITH CONTINUED VFR
KBGR/KBHB. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VFR RETURNS
ALL TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: TRANSITIONED THE GALE WARNING TO A SCA INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO 25 KTS W/SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT. A SURGE
IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS CAA HITS THE WARMER WATERS.
SEAS ARE RUNNING 10-13 FT W/A SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SE. PERIODS
OF 11-12 SECONDS OUT THERE ATTM. THE SEA STATE WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE WIND COMPONENT GOES OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. SNOW FALLING AS COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW THINGS UP
TODAY. RIVERS/STREAMS ARE HIGH W/SOME ICE MOVEMENT ESPECIALLY ON
THE KINGSBURY STREAM IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. THREAT FOR MINOR
FLOODING INCLUDING ICE JAM FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE
SAINT JOHN...AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS AND ALLAGASH RIVERS ALONG
WITH SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1221 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS HELPING PREVENT FREE-FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING DESPITE A BOUNDARY LAYER. WE HELD WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE KEYS ON THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS LOWS
WARMER THAN WE ARE ADVERTISING. OUR DECISION TO MAKE NO CHANGE TO
OFFICIALLY-FORECAST LOWS IS BASED ON THE DRY AIR AND THE CLEARING
ALREADY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST ND PER EVENING
SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE MEANTIME WE DID NEED TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER IN THE FORECAST...WHILE ADVERTISING A DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NO CHANGES OF NOTE WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH-
EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. THAT WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF A DRY AND QUIET NIGHT DESPITE THAT WAVE PASSAGE.
THAT/S LARGELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT EXISTS WITH 23
UTC SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS F IN SOUTH-
WEST ND TO THE TEENS F ELSEWHERE. THE DRY AIR MAY PROMOTE QUICK
COOLING THIS EVENING SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES IN
CASE FORECAST LOWS ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE RETREATING
TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ERODING THE
WESTERN EDGE. BY THIS EVENING THE STRATUS SHOULD HAVE RETREATED
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ISOLATED FOG NORTH
CENTRAL BUT NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST YET.
ON FRIDAY...THE H500 RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION. WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH GOOD MIXING
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE A BRIEF BUT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS
ROUNDING OUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING A COOLING
TREND. CHANCES OF SNOW ALSO RETURN WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE NAEFS/NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM SHOWS MODEL FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO 850-500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING WITHIN THE 98TH/99TH PERCENTILE WITH RESPECT TO
CLIMATOLOGY. NOT QUITE A MAXIMUM BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE THESE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT AN EVENT THAT IS OUTSIDE THE 1979-
2000 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
AROUND 65 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR CITIES WITH THE RECORD AT
JAMESTOWN OF 60 DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
50F AND 62F. ALBEIT SHY OF RECORDS...THIS WILL STILL NEED SOME
MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IS FORECAST WEST SATURDAY EVENING...AND AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUICK TRANSITION FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BACK TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PUSHES
THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. THIS COULD CHANGE IF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG
TERM MODELS CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN THE GFS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES CHANCES
OF SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ONLY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AFTER SATURDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
TREND COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
324 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WEAKER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Friday will start off similar to yesterday with some patchy fog
this morning followed by warm and dry weather into this
afternoon. Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday, but still several degrees above normal. Models in
fairly good agreement that a weak trough will move inland this
evening. The current HRRR shows precipitation moving into our CWA
after 4 pm. The bulk of precipitation from this system continues
to track north of I-80. The Sacramento region will likely only see
a few hundredths of an inch while locations south of I-80
(Stockton- Modesto area) will probably stay dry or just see trace
amounts of rain. Valley areas north of I-80 should range
0.05-0.25" with the higher amounts near Red Bluff and Redding.
Mountain rain amounts will range 0.10" up to around a half inch
with the Shasta County mountains and Lassen Peak having the
highest amounts. Snow levels will stay above pass levels today and
then lower overnight between 5500-6500 ft north of I-80 by early
Saturday morning. However, any snow amounts that occur will be
very light...a dusting up to around an inch or two at the higher
peaks. Sierra travel on I-80 and Hwy 50 should see very minimal
impacts, if any. Precipitation should end by late morning on
Saturday giving way to another dry and warm afternoon/night.
The next weak system is forecast to move across NorCal on Sunday
with light rain hitting the coastal range and northern Sacramento
Valley by late Sunday morning. Precipitation will then spread
southward towards the I-80 corridor by Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning. Rain amounts will be lighter than the Fri-Sat
system and, once again, snow will be an inch at best for the
higher elevations north of I-80.
Ridging re-develops over NorCal Monday into Tuesday.
JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
Generally dry and mild weather is expected through the first half
of next week. A weak system will pass over far Northern
California Tuesday with light showers possible. Otherwise,
temperatures are likely to peak on Wednesday, with highs roughly 5
to 10 degrees above normal.
Models continue to indicate a stronger trough moving through
around Thursday of next week. While not a strong system, this will
likely be the first shot at region-wide precipitation in the next
week.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...
General VFR conditions across interior NorCal the next 24 hours,
except for isolated MVFR conditions in BR in the northern San
Joaquin valley from 13Z to 17Z. Also, local MVFR possible over
the mountains Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak system
moves through. Breezy southwesterly winds over higher terrain
tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
944 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Most of the CWA east of I-55 saw the lower level clouds scatter
out and skies were mostly sunny this morning, although cirrus
clouds were still streaming overhead. Another stratocumulus deck
was along and west of the Illinois River, and this will overspread
the forecast area over the next few hours. RAP model shows the
lower clouds and cirrus on the way out by late afternoon, and will
continue with the trend of decreasing clouds over the northwest
CWA late this afternoon. Zones/grids were recently updated to
address the sky trends, with minor updates to the temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
1032 mb high pressure over central Texas and ridging northward
across the eastern plains, will see the ridge over IL by 18Z/noon
today and into the Ohio river valley by sunset. This will keep
central and southeast IL dry today, though a northern stream upper
level trof over the Dakotas will dive southeast into MO and IL by
early evening. This will tend to bring mostly cloudy skies and
seasonably cool temperatures today. A large break in the low clouds
across the nw half of CWA and moving southeast toward I-57 early
this morning, should fill back in during the morning as upper level
trof approaches and diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus clouds develop.
WNW winds 7-15 mph this morning becomes WSW this afternoon. Still
have a couple inches of snow on ground over east central IL and kept
cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s there, while lower 40s
elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Northern stream upper level trof/short wave to exit quickly
southeast into the mid MS and Ohio river valleys by 06z/midnight
tonight with clouds decreasing from nw to SE during the night in
its wake. Lows tonight of 25-30F with coolest readings over east
central IL.
Upper level heights rise over IL Saturday with upper level flow
become semi-zonal and allowing Pacific air to flow into IL this
weekend and bringing a nice warmup. Any remaining snow pack over
east central IL to likely all melt on Saturday with ample sunshine
with increasing SW winds 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph by
Saturday afternoon. Milder highs Saturday in the 50s, ranging from
lower 50s east central IL to the upper 50s west central IL. Lows
Sat night in the upper 30s and lower 40s as fair skies continue.
Low pressure emerging from the southern Canadian Rockies into the
northern plains Saturday evening, tracks eastward across central WI
and lower MI Sunday. Breezy SW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of
25 to 35 mph Sunday brings even milder temps with highs in the low
to mid 60s, despite increasing clouds as skies become mostly
cloudy Sunday afternoon. Continued to carry slight chance of
showers by mid/late Sunday afternoon over northern half of CWA
while better chances of showers and even isolated thunderstorms
over ne IL Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening closer to low
pressure moving across the central Great Lakes. This pulls a cold
front southeast across central IL sunday evening bringing 20-30%
chances of rain showers to central and eastern IL. Dry behind this
front as clouds decrease overnight Sunday night and Monday and
turning a bit cooler. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 30s.
Highs Monday 50-55F with mostly sunny skies and still above normal
for last day of February.
Big changes in the 00Z forecast models with track and speed of
strong low pressure ejecting from KS on Tue. Yesterday models where
taking low pressure ne across the ohio river valley Wed. Today the
GEM and ECMWF model take low pressure into central IL by 18Z Tue and
then into the eastern Great Lakes by 06Z/midnight Tue night. The GFS
model is much slower with low pressure over ne KS at 18Z Tue and
over central IL at 06Z/midnight Tue night. Will stay close to
blended initialization pops with some lean toward the more similar
ECMWF and GEM camps. Still dry Monday night over central/eastern
IL then think rain showers to develop from west to east during the
day Tue with isolated thunderstorms possible over southern IL.
Leaning toward faster GEM/ECMWF model would have cooler air
arriving quicker Tue night with rain changing to light snow
showers, especially after midnight Tue night over central IL and
just slight chances on Wed but GEM and ECMWF models have pcpn east
of IL by Wed. This storm track over central IL would keep better
chances of snow accumulations north of our CWA. Highs Tue range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to near 60F by Lawrenceville. Much
cooler Wed with brisk WNW winds and highs in mid to upper 30s
central IL and lower 40s in southeast IL. A clipper system moves
into IL from the northern Rockies Thu bringing a chance of
rain/snow and below normal highs in the mid to upper 30s central
IL and lower 40s southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
A hole in the clouds moved over all the sites during the overnight
hours, but beginning at PIA around 13z, MVFR clouds around
2-2.5kft will move back into the area and effect all TAF sites
this morning. CMI will remain clear the longest before the clouds
arrive there around 18z. MVFR clouds will not clear until around
00z this evening and then skies should remain clear remainder of
TAF period. The clear skies tonight, combined with winds becoming
southerly, will produce fog over the areas where most of the snow
melts today. So have included 2sm BR at CMI and DEC and BMI, where
any snow cover should melt today and increase low level moisture
for overnight. For PIA and SPI, will just have a TEMPO group of
light fog. Winds will be northwest, then westerly most of the day,
then light and variable this evening as the ridge moves through
the area. Then winds will become southerly overnight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1057 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE OTHER THAN TO COOL OFF
THE RIDGES A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MORE SHALLOW. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO SHIFTED INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SPS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
NOON SINCE RIDGETOPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
ALTHOUGH BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WE WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9:30 FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR AND OB TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATED
ZONES...HWO...AND THE EXPIRATION FOR THE WSW WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
WINDS GOING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS MAKING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS ARE NOT ADVECTING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MEANING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOT MUCH COLDER. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PARTIALLY MELTING CAUSING SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND
DRIZZLE. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE PLACES ABOVE 2000 FT COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO THROUGH DAWN. FOR THAT REASON
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE PLACES ALONG WITH
RUNNING THE SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE PATTERN WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAKER...TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER KENTUCKY
WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAWN ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITH ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ALLOWING FOR LITTLE HELP
FROM SUNSHINE IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING...REACHING INTO THE MID
30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AGAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
ELEVATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE SOLIDLY REBOUND
AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...AND THE WINDS SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH...
ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN USED THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS GIVEN THE LIMITED TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE POP VALUES WERE KEPT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DECENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
EVIDENCE BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...SPREAD IN MODELS INCREASES QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY...LEADING
TO LARGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 60S. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 30 OR 35
MPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO. IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE WET FUEL CONDITIONS...WE WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE RH SHOULD DROP FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A MODEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A CATEGORY. RAIN SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR A WARM UP
WILL BE ON TAP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD EASILY BE SHIFTED FORWARD OR BACKWARD IN
TIME AS MODELS SHIFT AROUND. WHILE IT DOES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND IF WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS MORE
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO
SNOW CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW LATER
IN THE WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH BEYOND THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEPART THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
700 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
ALTHOUGH BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WE WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9:30 FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR AND OB TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATED
ZONES...HWO...AND THE EXPIRATION FOR THE WSW WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
WINDS GOING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS MAKING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS ARE NOT ADVECTING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MEANING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOT MUCH COLDER. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PARTIALLY MELTING CAUSING SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND
DRIZZLE. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE PLACES ABOVE 2000 FT COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO THROUGH DAWN. FOR THAT REASON
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE PLACES ALONG WITH
RUNNING THE SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE PATTERN WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAKER...TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER KENTUCKY
WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAWN ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITH ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ALLOWING FOR LITTLE HELP
FROM SUNSHINE IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING...REACHING INTO THE MID
30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AGAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
ELEVATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE SOLIDLY REBOUND
AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...AND THE WINDS SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH...
ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN USED THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS GIVEN THE LIMITED TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE POP VALUES WERE KEPT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DECENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
EVIDENCE BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...SPREAD IN MODELS INCREASES QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY...LEADING
TO LARGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 60S. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 30 OR 35
MPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO. IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE WET FUEL CONDITIONS...WE WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE RH SHOULD DROP FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A MODEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A CATEGORY. RAIN SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR A WARM UP
WILL BE ON TAP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD EASILY BE SHIFTED FORWARD OR BACKWARD IN
TIME AS MODELS SHIFT AROUND. WHILE IT DOES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND IF WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS MORE
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO
SNOW CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW LATER
IN THE WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH BEYOND THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEPART THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
530 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
The low levels continue to slowly dry out as surface high pressure
builds east from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Skies
cleared out in some areas overnight, but areas of low clouds are
returning from the north as of 08z. The main forecast issue for
today is how much low cloudiness to expect.
Model forecast soundings as well as the RAP 1000/850 mb layer mean
rh suggest that low clouds will not be quick to leave our area.
The deepest and most persistent moisture is forecast to remain
across the Evansville tri-state area today, where the forecast
will stay mostly cloudy. Elsewhere, there should be occasional
sunshine today, especially in the far western areas around kpof.
The mixed layer has become more shallow since yesterday, and there
is little evidence of any forcing for ascent. Therefore, no
mention of precip will be made. High temps will be only slightly
higher than Thursday, ranging from the lower to mid 40s in most
places.
Tonight will become mainly clear as dry southwest flow nudges the
low clouds out of our area. Low temps will average around 30
degrees.
Saturday and Saturday night will remain mostly clear as a 500 mb
shortwave ridge moves southeast across our region. Low-level
southwest flow will bring moderating temps, with highs reaching 60
in parts of southeast Missouri Saturday.
Sunday will be milder than Saturday, but the combination of strong
southwest winds and increasing high cloudiness could make it feel
cooler. The nam model has been showing 30 to 40 knots of wind in
the mixed layer (below 3000 feet). Surface wind gusts should be
within that range Sunday afternoon.
A low-amplitude 500 mb shortwave trough and its associated cold
front will move across our region on Sunday night. Moisture will
be limited, since this system is embedded in northwest flow. Will
maintain small rain chances, primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Models are struggling with the pattern in the long term. Basically
used the latest ensemble mean solutions incorporated with 50 percent
blend of our previous 2 official gridded forecasts. Should be dry
Monday, with our attention on a developing upper level system over
the Pacific NW, quickly headed for the Rockies. The models have this
strong wave somewhere over the central Plains by 12z Tuesday. Will
continue with slight chance PoPs for showers Monday night. Area wide
convective chances Tuesday. The GFS is notably slower than the
EC/GEM and other solutions. Will not completely discount it. Plan on
giving the other model consensus more weight. Continue PoPs for
rain/showers Tuesday night, though slightly lower, with diminishing
PoPs Wednesday. Have little confidence in the models from Wednesday
night into Thursday. Will carry slight/low chance PoPs given the
00z/12z EC solutions show weak s/wv energy may generate some precip
(mainly rain, mix north 1/2?) during this time frame. Temps will be
a blend of latest MOS and previous 2 forecast cycles.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
VFR cigs will remain persistent through the day in the kevv/kowb
areas. In the kpah/kcgi areas, mvfr to vfr cigs around 3k feet are
returning as of 11z. There will likely be intervals of mvfr cigs at
all sites through the mid-afternoon hours. Low clouds will depart
our region late this afternoon and early this evening, followed by a
mid-level cloud deck above 10k feet. No vsby issues are expected.
Winds will be considerably lighter than the past couple of days as
high pressure builds overhead.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
614 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE: STEADY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. SNOW HAS EXTENDING ITS WAY DOWN INTO CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND HANCOCK COUNTY. THEREFORE, INCREASE THE
PERCENTAGES(POPS) W/THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS W/LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL LOOKING FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SO ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HRLY TEMPS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO BRING THEM UP A
FEW DEGREES USING THE ADJLAV GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO BE DOING
WELL ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THIS TERM W/SOME SNOW EARLY TODAY.
LATEST RADAR LOOP HAD PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL SHOWING
A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THIS REGION W/A 35 KT AT 700 MBS MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AND WILL RE-FREEZING
OF STANDING WATER, THIS WILL MAKE FOR ICY CONDITIONS. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM INDICATED SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION W/THIS TROF TO HELP IGNITE SOME ACTIVITY. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE FOR HEAVIER ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
IS THERE THROUGH 700MBS BUT LAPSE RATES NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE.
THEREFORE, SNOWFALL FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
LIGHT(LESS THAN AN INCH AT BEST). WNW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-20
MPH ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS. NOTHING MAJOR.
UPPER TROF SWINGS BY THIS EVENING W/HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION SET
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT
ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BUT THE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MIXING IN THE BLYR TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO LOW.
MUCH COLDER HOWEVER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS W/AREAS BACK ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH AND OUT WEST DROPPING AOB ZERO(0F) W/SINGLE NUMBERS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID
20 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR SO BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
WILL BE QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS
THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BUT IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
SUPPORTING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS TEH CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE COULD BE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK
BRINGING SOME SNOW OR EVEN RAIN TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FRO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY W/A TEMPO OF IFR
THIS MORNING DUE TO SNOW. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR FOR THE MOST
PART TODAY W/A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT W/VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS. MVFR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VFR
KBGR/KBHB. VFR THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SNOW WITH CONTINUED VFR
KBGR/KBHB. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VFR RETURNS
ALL TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: TRANSITIONED THE GALE WARNING TO A SCA INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO 25 KTS W/SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT. A SURGE
IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS CAA HITS THE WARMER WATERS.
SEAS ARE RUNNING 10-13 FT W/A SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SE. PERIODS
OF 11-12 SECONDS OUT THERE ATTM. THE SEA STATE WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE WIND COMPONENT GOES OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. SNOW FALLING AS COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW THINGS UP
TODAY. RIVERS/STREAMS ARE HIGH W/SOME ICE MOVEMENT ESPECIALLY ON
THE KINGSBURY STREAM IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. THREAT FOR MINOR
FLOODING INCLUDING ICE JAM FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE
SAINT JOHN...AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS AND ALLAGASH RIVERS ALONG
WITH SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
137 PM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IN THE COAST
AND VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WARM-UP EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CREATING
WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY BRINGS
SOME COOLING TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS BUT SOME WARMING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. COOLER IN ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BRINGS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND
A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW THAT WE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
ONSHORE FLOW...AS THE SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY
ONLY 0.4 MB ONSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS 2.3 MB OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE KICKING IN AND THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENING A BIT TODAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS AT 1
PM ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AT 1 PM YESTERDAY...WHILE
THEY ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.
WITH THE TRENDING ONSHORE FLOW AND VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG FORMATION ABOUT 5 TO
LOCALLY 10 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
COULD DISRUPT THE FORMATION OF FOG SOMEWHAT...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION ALTOGETHER.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...NUDGING THE RIDGE ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING
PREVAILING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD CREATE A LITTLE MORE
COOLING FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ACTUALLY GET A LITTLE WARMER. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LIKELY PRETTY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. A CONTINUED SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY RESULT IN
MORE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
MOMENTARILY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL HELP BRING
THE WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST ON THOSE DAYS...THEN ONSHORE
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY STARTS TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE COAST.
A COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
262100Z...FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR THE
COAST AFTER 03Z AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE A
SHORT DISTANCE ONSHORE AND BECOME A MORE UNIFORM DECK AFTER 08Z.
CIGS WILL BE AROUND 400-700 FEET MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FEET. IN
GENERAL VIS WILL BE 1-4SM AT THE COAST...BUT LOCALLY AS LOW AS 1/4SM
MAINLY ON COASTAL MESAS AND ALONG THE INLAND EXTENT OF FOG. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY 16-17Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
100 PM...AREAS OF FOG WITH VIS 1NM OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 10 FEET MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
100 PM...A BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST SURF WILL PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY. FOR SURF AND HAZARD
DETAILS...CHECK THE SURF FORECAST LAXSRFSGX...AND THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LAXCFWSGX.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEKEND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
EVERYWHERE. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEK FOR A WARMING TREND
AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS INTO MIDWEEK. BUT A LOW WILL DIP SOUTH
ON THURSDAY FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)
GRADIENTS TRENDING ONSHORE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED WITH
SOME DENSE FOG REPORTED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF VENTURA.
TEMPERATURES OFF TO A SLOWER START NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH THE MARINE INFLUENCE SO THE COOLING TREND IN THE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE SO FORECAST
CLEARING THERE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, ESPECIALLY AT THE BEACHES.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH TODAYS TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL NOT DO TOO MUCH EXCEPT USHER
IN A BURST OF NORTH WINDS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL SPIN A WEAK EDDY
UP WHICH WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST AND THE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO WELL MIXED FOR THE CLOUDS TO
FORM). THE NORTH FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH SOME CLOUDS UP THE NORTH
SLOPES. THERE WILL BE SUB ADVISORY WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR AND SBA SOUTH COAST.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE LOWEST HGTS AND THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS KDAG (STILL OFFSHORE FROM KBFL)
MORE RIDGING AND MORE NORTH FLOW ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL
AGAIN BE SOME SUB ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS (NO UPPER OR THERMAL
SUPPORT) THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LA COAST. IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO RISE.
.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
EARLY MONDAY THE RIDGE AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. THE NORTH
PUSH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A LOW END WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE SBA SOUTH COAST. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AND THERE WILL BE BROAD SWATH OF 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS.
ON TUESDAY THE RIDGING PEAKS AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
THE NE. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CARRY THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP
A FEW MORE DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIKE TUESDAY JUST A LITTLE LESS SO. THE RIDGE
AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
A FAST MOVING TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL ZOOM INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. HGTS WILL FALL AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REVERSE. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WILL TURN
MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAYS READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...26/1200Z
AT 0920Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 500 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1900 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES CELSIUS.
STRATUS AND FOG...WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT
THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRATUS WITH LIFR CONDS AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF WRN L.A.
COUNTY...VTU AND SERN SBA COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT STRATUS WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY. SOME
LLWS IS EXPECTED NEAR KSBA AS GUSTY NLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHC OF VLIFR CIGS AND VIS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VLIFR CONDS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THESE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE VLIFR CONDS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 05Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.MARINE...26/300 AM.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. FOR TODAY...WINDS MAY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...BUT
SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET...AT LEAST IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET.
EXPECT 10 FOOT SEAS TO REACH THE NORTHERN INNER WATER LATE IN THE
DAY. ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON...BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL BE
ABOVE THRESHOLDS.
MODERATELY LARGE SWELL WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AND
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SAT THROUGH SUN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.BEACHES...25/900 PM.
HIGH SURF HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY AS A WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL CURRENTLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG ALL EXPOSED WEST AND
NORTHWEST FACING SHORES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ZONE 39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BRUNO
MARINE...BRUNO
BEACHES...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
914 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WEAKER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Frontal boundary and upper trof just off the N Coast this morning
and poised to move across Norcal mainly during the evening time
frame. Only change contemplated in the short term is the potential
for a thunderstorm or two over Shasta Co with FROPA and upper trof
passage. CAPE/instability progs suggesting the area from Shasta Co
into NErn Tehama/Wrn Plumas Co will have the potential for
convection during the evening. Forecast soundings indicate
potential for elevated instability with the high resolution
QPF/REF progs highlighting the Shasta Co area. Any thunder that
occurs should be brief/isolated and should move quickly with the
progressive nature of the trof.
In general...this system will weaken as it encounters the W Coast
ridge and moves over Norcal. This system and the Sun/Mon system
should have limited impacts. JHM
Daytime highs this afternoon will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday, but still several degrees above normal. Models in fairly
good agreement that a weak trough will move inland this evening. The
current HRRR shows precipitation moving into our CWA after 4 pm. The
bulk of precipitation from this system continues to track north of I-
80. The Sacramento region will likely only see a few hundredths of
an inch while locations south of I-80 (Stockton- Modesto area) will
probably stay dry or just see trace amounts of rain. Valley areas
north of I-80 should range 0.05-0.25" with the higher amounts near
Red Bluff and Redding.
Mountain rain amounts will range 0.10" up to around a half inch
with the Shasta County mountains and Lassen Peak having the
highest amounts. Snow levels will stay above pass levels today and
then lower overnight between 5500-6500 ft north of I-80 by early
Saturday morning. However, any snow amounts that occur will be
very light...a dusting up to around an inch or two at the higher
peaks. Sierra travel on I-80 and Hwy 50 should see very minimal
impacts, if any. Precipitation should end by late morning on
Saturday giving way to another dry and warm afternoon/night.
The next weak system is forecast to move across NorCal on Sunday
with light rain hitting the coastal range and northern Sacramento
Valley by late Sunday morning. Precipitation will then spread
southward towards the I-80 corridor by Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning. Rain amounts will be lighter than the Fri-Sat
system and, once again, snow will be an inch at best for the
higher elevations north of I-80.
Ridging re-develops over NorCal Monday into Tuesday.
JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
Generally dry and mild weather is expected through the first half
of next week. A weak system will pass over far Northern
California Tuesday with light showers possible. Otherwise,
temperatures are likely to peak on Wednesday, with highs roughly 5
to 10 degrees above normal.
Models continue to indicate a stronger trough moving through
around Thursday of next week. While not a strong system, this will
likely be the first shot at region-wide precipitation in the next
week.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours, except MVFR conditions in
BR in the northern San Joaquin Valley through about 17z. A weather
system may bring local MVFR conditions over the mountains tonight
into early Saturday. Breezy southwest winds over higher terrain
this afternoon through tonight.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
840 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IN THE COAST
AND VALLEYS AND SOME WARMING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WARM-UP EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CREATING WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...WHILE WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY BRINGS SOME COOLING TO THE COAST. COOLER IN
ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BRINGS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF FOG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH A FEW BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SHOW THAT WE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS ONSHORE FLOW...AS THE
SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY ONLY 1.0 MB
OFFSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS 2.9 MB OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE KICKING IN AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENING A
BIT TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TO BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER.
WITH THE TRENDING ONSHORE FLOW AND VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE DENSE FOG FORMATION ABOUT 5 TO
LOCALLY 10 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
COULD DISRUPT THE FORMATION OF FOG SOMEWHAT...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION ALTOGETHER.
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...NUDGING THE RIDGE ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING
PREVAILING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD CREATE FURTHER COOLING FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ACTUALLY GET
A LITTLE WARMER. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LIKELY PRETTY SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY. A CONTINUED SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY RESULT IN MORE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY
MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
MOMENTARILY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL HELP BRING
THE WARMING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST ON THOSE DAYS...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY STARTING TO BRING SOME COOLING TO THE COAST.
A COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
261630Z...FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR THE
COAST AFTER 03Z AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE A
SHORT DISTANCE ONSHORE AND BECOME A MORE UNIFORM DECK AFTER 08Z.
CIGS WILL BE AROUND 400-700 FEET MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FEET. IN
GENERAL VIS WILL BE 2-5SM AT THE COAST...BUT LOCALLY BELOW 1SM
MAINLY ALONG COASTAL MESAS AND INLAND EXTENT OF FOG. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY 16-17Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
830 AM...PATCHES OF FOG WITH VIS 1NM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE
TONIGHT AND PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FEET MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
830 AM...A BUILDING SWELL WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST SURF WILL PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY. FOR SURF AND HAZARD DETAILS...CHECK THE
SURF FORECAST LAXSRFSGX...AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY LAXCFWSGX.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Earlier clearing over the southeast half of the CWA has filled in
since late morning. However, back edge of the low cloud shield has
moved into west central Illinois this afternoon. Latest RAP guidance
suggests most of this should be out of the CWA by mid evening, with
a period of clear skies. However, an area of cirrus will move
through after midnight, associated with the upper wave currently
seen on water vapor imagery from the west tip of Lake Superior into
western Kansas. This will result in partly cloudy conditions as the
wave zips through overnight. Will need to watch for some fog
potential over east central Illinois, as there were 1-3 inches of
snow on the ground there this morning and some melting has taken
place. However, winds will be picking up after midnight, which may
help mitigate the threat. Currently, only the SREF is indicating any
visibility restrictions overnight. Will leave out mention for now
and continue to monitor.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Any patchy early morning fog in east-central Illinois early
Saturday morning should quickly dissipate as southwest winds crank
up into the 15 to 25 mph range. The gusty winds and ample sunshine
will go a long way toward melting any remaining snow pack in our
counties as well, with high temps expected to reach in the 50s
across the board.
The upper level ridge responsible for the warming trend will begin
to shift east of Illinois on Sunday, as the next in a series of low
pressure systems approaches the Great Lakes region. Despite
increasing afternoon clouds and slight chances of rain north of
Springfield to Mattoon on Sunday, strong south to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will provide our warmest day of the next week. Highs
will climb into the low to mid 60s. Thunder potential appears to
have lowered with the latest model suite, so no mention of thunder
was included ahead of the cold front later Sunday afternoon. Slight
chances of rain will linger into Sunday evening east of I-57, with
dry conditions after midnight when the cold front departs well to
the east.
A brief push of cooler air will arrive for Monday, but plenty of
sunshine will help high temps recover into the 50s, which are still
well above normal.
The extended models once again have come in with widely varying
solutions. The ECMWF is the only model to develop a deep 990mb low
passing across Illinois roughly along I-72 on Tuesday. It indicates
enough cold air N-NW of the low for several inches of snow W of I-55
Tue afternoon, with rain changing to snow east of I-55 into the
evening. A few thunderstorms would even be possible south of I-72 on
Tuesday. The GFS has a weak and more elongated surface low develop
and pass by to the south of Illinois on Tuesday, with precip mainly
south of I-72, and mainly rain until colder air arrives Tuesday
evening and changes rain to snow as precip ends. The Canadian GEM
has more of an open wave and surface trough pass across Illinois on
Tuesday, with precip starting briefly as rain early Tuesday then
changing to snow, with light accums possible. With such large swings
in each models solutions from cycle to cycle, along with differences
between the models, only minor changes were made to the forecast
from late Monday night through Tues night. The blended
initialization shifted the Likely PoPs on Tuesday to areas southeast
of Decatur, with high chance PoPs elsewhere in central Illinois.
The actual PoP numbers were relatively close to the previous
forecast in general. Precip type scenarios were tied to a warm surge
on Tuesday, then rain changing to snow from W to E Tues night, as
colder air arrives behind the low/surface trough. Changes to this
scenario are likely over the next couple of days before models start
to converge on a solution.
A break in the precip chances is expected for Wednesday as weak high
pressure passes across IL. However, another upper level shortwave
and surface trough are projected to pass over Illinois on Thursday.
There will be higher chances of rain or snow southeast of the
Illinois river, closer to the track of the upper vort max and jet
dynamics.
High temps will dip back below normal from Wednesday to Friday as
the waves bring brief shots of cooler air to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Ceilings are falling just below 3000 feet late this morning from
KSPI-KCMI as a stratocumulus deck spreads southeast. Am expecting
some modest improvement in heights by mid afternoon back into VFR
range. The overall cloud deck will continue to push east, and
should be out of the TAF sites by mid evening.
Continue to have some concerns regarding fog potential overnight
across east central Illinois, where snow is currently melting.
SREF visibility probabilities showing 30-40% chance of 1 mile
visibility between 09-12Z in this area, where the snow is
thickest. A couple things that may help mitigate it are an
increasing southerly wind which will set up after 06Z, as well as
some higher clouds accompanying an upper level trough. Right now,
will continue with prevailing MVFR visibilities at KCMI late
tonight, with TEMPO periods at KBMI/KDEC where there is less snow
cover. Any fog should burn off by 15Z with sunshine and winds
increasing to around 10 knots.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
308 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Earlier clearing over the southeast half of the CWA has filled in
since late morning. However, back edge of the low cloud shield has
moved into west central Illinois this afternoon. Latest RAP guidance
suggests most of this should be out of the CWA by mid evening, with
a period of clear skies. However, an area of cirrus will move
through after midnight, associated with the upper wave currently
seen on water vapor imagery from the west tip of Lake Superior into
western Kansas. This will result in partly cloudy conditions as the
wave zips through overnight. Will need to watch for some fog
potential over east central Illinois, as there were 1-3 inches of
snow on the ground there this morning and some melting has taken
place. However, winds will be picking up after midnight, which may
help mitigate the threat. Currently, only the SREF is indicating any
visibility restrictions overnight. Will leave out mention for now
and continue to monitor.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Any patchy early morning for in east-central Illinois early Saturday
morning should quickly dissipate as southwest winds crank up into
the 15 to 25 mph range. The gusty winds and ample sunshine will go a
long way toward melting any remaining snow pack in our counties as
well, with high temps expected to reach in the 50s across the board.
The upper level ridge responsible for the warming trend will begin
to shift east of Illinois on Sunday, as the next in a series of low
pressure systems approaches the Great Lakes region. Despite
increasing afternoon clouds and slight chances of rain north of
Springfield to Mattoon on Sunday, strong south to southwest winds of
25 to 35 mph will provide our warmest day of the next week. Highs
will climb into the low to mid 60s. Thunder potential appears to
have lowered with the latest model suite, so no mention of thunder
was included ahead of the cold front later Sunday afternoon. Slight
chances of rain will linger into Sunday evening east of I-57, with
dry conditions after midnight when the cold front departs well to
the east.
A brief push of cooler air will arrive for Monday, but plenty of
sunshine will help high temps recover into the 50s, which are still
well above normal.
The extended models once again have come in with widely varying
solutions. The ECMWF is the only model to develop a deep 990mb low
passing across Illinois roughly along I-72 on Tuesday. It indicates
enough cold air N-NW of the low for several inches of snow W of I-55
Tue afternoon, with rain changing to snow east of I-55 into the
evening. A few thunderstorms would even be possible south of I-72 on
Tuesday. The GFS has a weak and more elongated surface low develop
and pass by to the south of Illinois on Tuesday, with precip mainly
south of I-72, and mainly rain until colder air arrives Tuesday
evening and changes rain to snow as precip ends. The Canadian GEM
has more of an open wave and surface trough pass across Illinois on
Tuesday, with precip starting briefly as rain early Tuesday then
changing to snow, with light accums possible. With such large swings
in each models solutions from cycle to cycle, along with differences
between the models, only minor changes were made to the forecast
from late Monday night through Tues night. The blended
initialization shifted the Likely PoPs on Tuesday to areas southeast
of Decatur, with high chance PoPs elsewhere in central Illinois.
The actual PoP numbers were relatively close to the previous
forecast in general. Precip type scenarios were tied to a warm surge
on Tuesday, then rain changing to snow from W to E Tues night, as
colder air arrives behind the low/surface trough. Changes to this
scenario are likely over the next couple of days before models start
to converge on a solution.
A break in the precip chances is expected for Wednesday as weak high
pressure passes across IL. However, another upper level shortwave
and surface trough are projected to pass over Illinois on Thursday.
There will be higher chances of rain or snow southeast of the
Illinois river, closer to the track of the upper vort max and jet
dynamics.
High temps will dip back below normal from Wednesday to Friday as
the waves bring brief shots of cooler air to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Ceilings are falling just below 3000 feet late this morning from
KSPI-KCMI as a stratocumulus deck spreads southeast. Am expecting
some modest improvement in heights by mid afternoon back into VFR
range. The overall cloud deck will continue to push east, and
should be out of the TAF sites by mid evening.
Continue to have some concerns regarding fog potential overnight
across east central Illinois, where snow is currently melting.
SREF visibility probabilities showing 30-40% chance of 1 mile
visibility between 09-12Z in this area, where the snow is
thickest. A couple things that may help mitigate it are an
increasing southerly wind which will set up after 06Z, as well as
some higher clouds accompanying an upper level trough. Right now,
will continue with prevailing MVFR visibilities at KCMI late
tonight, with TEMPO periods at KBMI/KDEC where there is less snow
cover. Any fog should burn off by 15Z with sunshine and winds
increasing to around 10 knots.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Most of the CWA east of I-55 saw the lower level clouds scatter
out and skies were mostly sunny this morning, although cirrus
clouds were still streaming overhead. Another stratocumulus deck
was along and west of the Illinois River, and this will overspread
the forecast area over the next few hours. RAP model shows the
lower clouds and cirrus on the way out by late afternoon, and will
continue with the trend of decreasing clouds over the northwest
CWA late this afternoon. Zones/grids were recently updated to
address the sky trends, with minor updates to the temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
1032 mb high pressure over central Texas and ridging northward
across the eastern plains, will see the ridge over IL by 18Z/noon
today and into the Ohio river valley by sunset. This will keep
central and southeast IL dry today, though a northern stream upper
level trof over the Dakotas will dive southeast into MO and IL by
early evening. This will tend to bring mostly cloudy skies and
seasonably cool temperatures today. A large break in the low clouds
across the nw half of CWA and moving southeast toward I-57 early
this morning, should fill back in during the morning as upper level
trof approaches and diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus clouds develop.
WNW winds 7-15 mph this morning becomes WSW this afternoon. Still
have a couple inches of snow on ground over east central IL and kept
cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s there, while lower 40s
elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Northern stream upper level trof/short wave to exit quickly
southeast into the mid MS and Ohio river valleys by 06z/midnight
tonight with clouds decreasing from nw to SE during the night in
its wake. Lows tonight of 25-30F with coolest readings over east
central IL.
Upper level heights rise over IL Saturday with upper level flow
become semi-zonal and allowing Pacific air to flow into IL this
weekend and bringing a nice warmup. Any remaining snow pack over
east central IL to likely all melt on Saturday with ample sunshine
with increasing SW winds 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph by
Saturday afternoon. Milder highs Saturday in the 50s, ranging from
lower 50s east central IL to the upper 50s west central IL. Lows
Sat night in the upper 30s and lower 40s as fair skies continue.
Low pressure emerging from the southern Canadian Rockies into the
northern plains Saturday evening, tracks eastward across central WI
and lower MI Sunday. Breezy SW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of
25 to 35 mph Sunday brings even milder temps with highs in the low
to mid 60s, despite increasing clouds as skies become mostly
cloudy Sunday afternoon. Continued to carry slight chance of
showers by mid/late Sunday afternoon over northern half of CWA
while better chances of showers and even isolated thunderstorms
over ne IL Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening closer to low
pressure moving across the central Great Lakes. This pulls a cold
front southeast across central IL sunday evening bringing 20-30%
chances of rain showers to central and eastern IL. Dry behind this
front as clouds decrease overnight Sunday night and Monday and
turning a bit cooler. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 30s.
Highs Monday 50-55F with mostly sunny skies and still above normal
for last day of February.
Big changes in the 00Z forecast models with track and speed of
strong low pressure ejecting from KS on Tue. Yesterday models where
taking low pressure ne across the ohio river valley Wed. Today the
GEM and ECMWF model take low pressure into central IL by 18Z Tue and
then into the eastern Great Lakes by 06Z/midnight Tue night. The GFS
model is much slower with low pressure over ne KS at 18Z Tue and
over central IL at 06Z/midnight Tue night. Will stay close to
blended initialization pops with some lean toward the more similar
ECMWF and GEM camps. Still dry Monday night over central/eastern
IL then think rain showers to develop from west to east during the
day Tue with isolated thunderstorms possible over southern IL.
Leaning toward faster GEM/ECMWF model would have cooler air
arriving quicker Tue night with rain changing to light snow
showers, especially after midnight Tue night over central IL and
just slight chances on Wed but GEM and ECMWF models have pcpn east
of IL by Wed. This storm track over central IL would keep better
chances of snow accumulations north of our CWA. Highs Tue range
from upper 40s nw of IL river to near 60F by Lawrenceville. Much
cooler Wed with brisk WNW winds and highs in mid to upper 30s
central IL and lower 40s in southeast IL. A clipper system moves
into IL from the northern Rockies Thu bringing a chance of
rain/snow and below normal highs in the mid to upper 30s central
IL and lower 40s southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Ceilings are falling just below 3000 feet late this morning from
KSPI-KCMI as a stratocumulus deck spreads southeast. Am expecting
some modest improvement in heights by mid afternoon back into VFR
range. The overall cloud deck will continue to push east, and
should be out of the TAF sites by mid evening.
Continue to have some concerns regarding fog potential overnight
across east central Illinois, where snow is currently melting.
SREF visibility probabilities showing 30-40% chance of 1 mile
visibility between 09-12Z in this area, where the snow is
thickest. A couple things that may help mitigate it are an
increasing southerly wind which will set up after 06Z, as well as
some higher clouds accompanying an upper level trough. Right now,
will continue with prevailing MVFR visibilities at KCMI late
tonight, with TEMPO periods at KBMI/KDEC where there is less snow
cover. Any fog should burn off by 15Z with sunshine and winds
increasing to around 10 knots.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
142 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ANTICYLCONIC OR WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES AND HOLD MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
THE LOW 40S ARE POSSIBLE AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500
FEET WILL HOLD IN THE 20S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE OTHER THAN TO COOL OFF
THE RIDGES A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MORE SHALLOW. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO SHIFTED INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SPS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
NOON SINCE RIDGETOPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
ALTHOUGH BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WE WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9:30 FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WITH THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR AND OB TRENDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATED
ZONES...HWO...AND THE EXPIRATION FOR THE WSW WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM
THE WEST WHILE A DEEP LOW IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
WINDS GOING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTING A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS MAKING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS ARE NOT ADVECTING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MEANING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOT MUCH COLDER. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PARTIALLY MELTING CAUSING SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND
DRIZZLE. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF DUSTINGS OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE PLACES ABOVE 2000 FT COULD PICK UP ANOTHER
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO THROUGH DAWN. FOR THAT REASON
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE PLACES ALONG WITH
RUNNING THE SPS THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE PATTERN WILL
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAKER...TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER KENTUCKY
WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAWN ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT FOR MOST
PLACES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITH ROAD TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ALLOWING FOR LITTLE HELP
FROM SUNSHINE IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING...REACHING INTO THE MID
30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TO A MINIMUM. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS WILL BE
DOWN IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AGAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
ELEVATIONS. FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MORE SOLIDLY REBOUND
AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...AND THE WINDS SWITCH MORE TO THE SOUTH...
ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY THEN USED THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE T GRIDS GIVEN THE LIMITED TERRAIN
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF MOS FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE POP VALUES WERE KEPT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DECENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
EVIDENCE BY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...SPREAD IN MODELS INCREASES QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY...LEADING
TO LARGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE 60S. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 30 OR 35
MPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO. IF IT WASN`T FOR
THE WET FUEL CONDITIONS...WE WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AS THE RH SHOULD DROP FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A MODEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A CATEGORY. RAIN SHOULD MOVE ON THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER SPREADING BACK IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR A WARM UP
WILL BE ON TAP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD EASILY BE SHIFTED FORWARD OR BACKWARD IN
TIME AS MODELS SHIFT AROUND. WHILE IT DOES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR
GETS DRAGGED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND IF WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THINGS MORE
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO
SNOW CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW LATER
IN THE WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH BEYOND THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE LOW STRATOCU
IS LEADING TO CIGS IN THE LOWER END OF VFR OR MVFR RANGE. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE SOME AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1109 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
For aviation section.
UPDATE Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
The low levels continue to slowly dry out as surface high pressure
builds east from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Skies
cleared out in some areas overnight, but areas of low clouds are
returning from the north as of 08z. The main forecast issue for
today is how much low cloudiness to expect.
Model forecast soundings as well as the RAP 1000/850 mb layer mean
rh suggest that low clouds will not be quick to leave our area.
The deepest and most persistent moisture is forecast to remain
across the Evansville tri-state area today, where the forecast
will stay mostly cloudy. Elsewhere, there should be occasional
sunshine today, especially in the far western areas around kpof.
The mixed layer has become more shallow since yesterday, and there
is little evidence of any forcing for ascent. Therefore, no
mention of precip will be made. High temps will be only slightly
higher than Thursday, ranging from the lower to mid 40s in most
places.
Tonight will become mainly clear as dry southwest flow nudges the
low clouds out of our area. Low temps will average around 30
degrees.
Saturday and Saturday night will remain mostly clear as a 500 mb
shortwave ridge moves southeast across our region. Low-level
southwest flow will bring moderating temps, with highs reaching 60
in parts of southeast Missouri Saturday.
Sunday will be milder than Saturday, but the combination of strong
southwest winds and increasing high cloudiness could make it feel
cooler. The nam model has been showing 30 to 40 knots of wind in
the mixed layer (below 3000 feet). Surface wind gusts should be
within that range Sunday afternoon.
A low-amplitude 500 mb shortwave trough and its associated cold
front will move across our region on Sunday night. Moisture will
be limited, since this system is embedded in northwest flow. Will
maintain small rain chances, primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
Models are struggling with the pattern in the long term. Basically
used the latest ensemble mean solutions incorporated with 50 percent
blend of our previous 2 official gridded forecasts. Should be dry
Monday, with our attention on a developing upper level system over
the Pacific NW, quickly headed for the Rockies. The models have this
strong wave somewhere over the central Plains by 12z Tuesday. Will
continue with slight chance PoPs for showers Monday night. Area wide
convective chances Tuesday. The GFS is notably slower than the
EC/GEM and other solutions. Will not completely discount it. Plan on
giving the other model consensus more weight. Continue PoPs for
rain/showers Tuesday night, though slightly lower, with diminishing
PoPs Wednesday. Have little confidence in the models from Wednesday
night into Thursday. Will carry slight/low chance PoPs given the
00z/12z EC solutions show weak s/wv energy may generate some precip
(mainly rain, mix north 1/2?) during this time frame. Temps will be
a blend of latest MOS and previous 2 forecast cycles.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016
VFR cigs will remain persistent through the day in the kevv/kowb
areas. In the kpah/kcgi areas, mvfr to vfr cigs around 3k feet
will be common. Clouds will depart our region late this afternoon
and early this evening.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM