Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/25/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
251 PM PST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH SIMILAR READINGS IN THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE MOMENT WE DO HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE 20Z HRRR IS SUGGESTING LOWER
SURFACE RH VALUES THAN THIS MORNING. WE WILL KEEP THE PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM
ON NORCAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MOST WE CAN REASONABLY EXPECT
ARE MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A SECOND
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORCAL AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE QUICKLY
REBUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE NEXT TWO STORM SYSTEMS FORECAST TO SKIRT TO OUR
NORTH...WE CAN CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR INTO EARLY MARCH. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK HOLDING AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA BELOW NORMAL PRECIP FOR DAYS
6-10 AND 8-14. AT THE SAME TIME...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM 09Z THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 23 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN AND TULARE
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INVLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ROWE
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1047 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING VERY MILD
LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EST...WARM FRONT PASSED NORTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND THE TEMPERATURE SURGED FROM 41 TO 66 IN MINUTES! WITH THAT
HAS COME MUCH STRONG WINDS.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WORKING INTO THE REGION...INCLUDING SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR AREA.
UPDATE ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THE FAST ON GOING HOUR CHANGES.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO WORK NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND GUST
UP TO 35-40 MPH...PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
SW NEW YORK STATE...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM PASSING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850
HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4
STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NOW
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE
THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP
PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN
PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP
TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S...50S...AND LOWER 60S WHICH
WOULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL AHEAD OF THE STORM/S COLD FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z-06Z/THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS PASSES THROUGH.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/LIFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...THEN MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBYS...WITH
VFR TO MVFR CIGS...ESP AT KPSF.
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. THEN...AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT 8-12 KT...THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...SINCE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N/NE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1002 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE RISEN QUICKLY INTO THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WITH S-SE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES. SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH
TEMPS AND WINDS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
CONTINUE TO WATCH LINE OF TSTMS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
BOUYANCY TO SUSTAIN THIS LINE. JUST HOW FAR EAST IS THE
QUESTION...BUT ENOUGH CONVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH CSTL LOW
LEVEL JET FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING GUSTS.
THIS LINE HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN
ISOLD TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS...GIVEN COMBO
OF HRRR FCST 0-1 KM HELICITY OF 500-600 M2/S2...0-1KM BULK SHEAR
OF 60-70 KT...AND SOME SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SMALL HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE. BEST SVR POTENTIAL IS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...BUT
HEAVY RAINS ON NOSE OF LLJ ALSO COULD MIX DOWN VERY STRONG WINDS
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY IFR WITH RAIN. LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CITY
TERMINALS 04-05Z. CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT MAKE IT TO KBDR AND KISP.
GUSTS IN TSTMS COULD BE OVER 55KT. GUSTS AHEAD OF THE TSTM LINE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 40-45KT. LLWS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH
WINDS 60-70KT AT 1500FT. IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY... VFR WITH SW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.
SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.
THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS OF NASSAU FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...ETSS...ESTOFS..SBSS...AND THE SFAS ALL KEEP WATER
LEVEL BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS AS A SOUTHERLY GALE
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER END OF THE SFAS ENSEMBLE
DOES PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT FREEPORT WITH THE SBSS
INTO THE MINOR CATEGORY. THUS...THE NEED FOR THE STATEMENT
ADDRESSING LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE TIME THE FLOW
RAMPS UP DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE WHICH IS A LIMITING
FACTOR AS WELL.
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF GENERALLY 2 TO 2 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ070>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
931 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT...REACHING MILD LEVELS
FOR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER OHIO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850
HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4
STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NOW
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE
THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP
PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN
PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP
TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S...50S...AND LOWER 60S WHICH
WOULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z-06Z/THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS PASSES THROUGH.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/LIFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...THEN MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBYS...WITH
VFR TO MVFR CIGS...ESP AT KPSF.
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. THEN...AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT 8-12 KT...THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...SINCE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N/NE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
750 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT IS THROUGH LONG ISLAND...NYC...NORTHEAST NJ AND
PORTIONS OF SE CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING...THOUGH IT COULD GET HUNG UP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR IS STILL DRAINING DOWN FROM THE
MID HUDSON AND CT RIVER VALLEYS.
TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE RISEN QUICKLY INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60...WITH S-SE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES. SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH
TEMPS AND WINDS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE. FOG OVER THE AREA
MAY DISSIPATE FOR A TIME AFTER WARM FROPA...THEN AS VERY MOIST AIR
MASS WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S SPREADS IN...THE FOG SHOULD
REDEVELOP AND MAY BECOME DENSE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
CONTINUE TO WATCH LINE OF TSTMS. WITH WARM FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA...COULD BE JUST ENOUGH BOUYANCY TO SUSTAIN THIS LINE.
JUST HOW FAR EAST IS THE QUESTION...BUT ENOUGH CONVECTION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CSTL LOW LEVEL JET FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING GUSTS.
THIS LINE HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN
ISOLD TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS...GIVEN COMBO
OF HRRR FCST 0-1 KM HELICITY OF 500-600 M2/S2...0-1KM BULK SHEAR
OF 60-70 KT...AND SOME SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SMALL HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE. BEST SVR POTENTIAL IS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...BUT
HEAVY RAINS ON NOSE OF LLJ ALSO COULD MIX DOWN VERY STRONG WINDS
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY IFR WITH RAIN. LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD ENTER CITY TERMINALS
WITHIN AN HOUR EITHER WAY OF 04Z. FOR ALL TERMINALS...TEMPO
GROUPIS2HOURS LONG TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY. ANY TSTMS
SHOULD LAST NO MORE THAN A HALF HOUR. STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM DEVELOPING AND PASSING THROUGH BEFOREHAND.
S WINDS 15-25KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KT UNTIL TSTM LINE MOVES
THROUGH. GUSTS OVER 50KT POSSIBLE WITH THE TSTM. LLWS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS WELL WITH WINDS 60-70 KT AT 1500FT.
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY... VFR WITH SW GUSTS 25-30KT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KT THIS EVENING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 35-40 KT THIS EVENING.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS FROM 0015-0045Z - STORM CELL PASSING TO
THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS FROM 0030-0100Z - STORM CELL PASSING TO
THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KT THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.
SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.
THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS OF NASSAU FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...ETSS...ESTOFS..SBSS...AND THE SFAS ALL KEEP WATER
LEVEL BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS AS A SOUTHERLY GALE
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER END OF THE SFAS ENSEMBLE
DOES PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT FREEPORT WITH THE SBSS
INTO THE MINOR CATEGORY. THUS...THE NEED FOR THE STATEMENT
ADDRESSING LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE TIME THE FLOW
RAMPS UP DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE WHICH IS A LIMITING
FACTOR AS WELL.
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF GENERALLY 2 TO 2 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ070>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
630 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TONIGHT...REACHING MILD LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST...A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BEFORE A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID
LEVELS...WITH 850 HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE
850 V WINDS ARE 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE
NORMAL AS WELL. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN
BREAK THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE COULD BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH
DIFFERENT HERE THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL
TEMPS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY
RATHER LOW AND HELP PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
FROM MIXING DOWN IN PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND
SPC HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY IN THE 30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS WE GET TOWARDS
THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP TEMPS SPIKE
TONIGHT INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WHICH COULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z-06Z/THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS PASSES THROUGH.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/LIFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...THEN MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBYS...WITH
VFR TO MVFR CIGS...ESP AT KPSF.
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. THEN...AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT 8-12 KT...THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...SINCE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N/NE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
616 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TONIGHT...REACHING MILD LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST...A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BEFORE A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID
LEVELS...WITH 850 HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE
850 V WINDS ARE 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE
NORMAL AS WELL. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN
BREAK THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE COULD BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH
DIFFERENT HERE THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL
TEMPS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY
RATHER LOW AND HELP PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
FROM MIXING DOWN IN PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND
SPC HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY IN THE 30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S THANKS TO
EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS WE GET TOWARDS
THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP TEMPS SPIKE
TONIGHT INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WHICH COULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE SO THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOP.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z THURSDAY
WILL HOVER BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR.
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL. RAIN WILL TEND TO END IN ALL AREAS BY 14Z-15Z...BUT SOME
PATCHES OF RAIN MAY STILL BE AROUND TO REQUIRE VCSH TOMORROW
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
REQUIRE A MENTION OF WIND SHEAR. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL WATCH LATER TRENDS FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN BETWEEN 12Z-15Z
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY...
...TURNING DRY...WINDY...AND MUCH COOLER THURSDAY...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) AT THE SPACE
CENTER AND SURROUNDING AREA WERE DETECTING SOUTHERLY 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 3500 FEET THEN SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS TIL AROUND 7000 FEET THEN WEST
SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS ABOVE 7000 FEET. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE LOWER 3500 FEET HAVE STARTED TO MIX DOWN AND WE SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FROM 10AM/15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST RAP40 TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION(S) SHOWING "WEAK" ISENTROPIC
LIFTING OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. IR SATELLITE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MULTI LAYERED CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFTING MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MORNING/DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RADARS DETECTING SHOWERS FORMED/FORMING IN THE DEEPENING
INCREASINGLY MOISTENING SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 23/06Z GFS RUNS SHOW PRECIP LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BRIEF LULL TIL AROUND 06Z...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WED AS PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTERNOON
HIGHS LOOK OK CONSIDERING THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE WARM SOUTH WIND.
MORNING UPDATE OFF OF HRRR...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
.AVIATION...OVC VFR WITH CEILINGS AT/ABOVE FL030. CONCERN FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
.MARINE...THE TWO NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6 NM OFF THE
BEACHES WERE RECORDING 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 009 AT 20NM OFFSHORE
WAS RECORDING SOUTH WINDS 16 TO19 KNOT AND 6 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 01 AT
120NM OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING 7 FOOT SEAS. INCREASING SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON HELPS PUSH OFFSHORE SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE/EAST OF THE GULF STEAM. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE
CAUTION ALL WATERS TIL 4P THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 20
MILES OF SHORE LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 444 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN A
BREEZIER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. SOME CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WILL
DECREASE AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S
AND POSSIBLY MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. RECORD HIGHS LOOK OUT OF REACH
BUT TEMPS WILL BE 6 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE HEATING WILL
PRODUCE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NE. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ONE GIVEN THE COOL SURF TEMPS AND HEATING OF THE LAND
CREATING A THERMAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE COAST IF A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP. WILL
MAINTAIN 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
STORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE.
TONIGHT...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST EARLY
IN THE EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AND QUITE
WARM WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLOWLY FALLING BACK
THROUGH THE 70S. LOWS IN MID MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES DURING PAST 24 HOURS CONCERNING
APPROACHING SYSTEM OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PACE OF
MAIN PRECIP BAND. MID LEVEL CUTOFF NEAR MEM 12Z WED EJECTS N/NE
TOWARD OHIO VALLEY BY 25/06Z. WHILE MID/UPPER DYNAMICS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT FAR NW/N OF THE STATE...45-50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET CROSSES NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
PROSPECT OF A VEERING PROFILE WITHIN 0-3 KM LAYER TO WARRANT
CONCERN OF 150-200 M2/S2 HELICITY VALUES...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW
LEVEL STORM ROTATION. TIME PERIOD COINCIDES WITH HIGHEST
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SPREADING ACROSS CWA. BEST TIMING ESTIMATE
FOR MOST CONCENTRATED PRECIP COVERAGE...REACHING DAYTONA-
SANFORD- CLERMONT LINE AROUND NOON...ADVANCING TO NEAR VERO BEACH-
OKEECHOBEE LINE BY AROUND SUNSET...AND CONTINUING SOUTH OF CWA
BEFORE MID EVENING. GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES ACROSS NW THIRD OF CWA WITH LOWEST THREAT ACROSS SE
COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME UNIDIRECTION PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION...BUT CAN NOT DISCOUNT LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT
ANYWHERE WITHIN CWA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT DAYBREAK WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY SW AROUND MID DAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. EVEN WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER...SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH 80 AREAWIDE...WITH
MID 80S POSSIBLE SOUTH...YIELDING CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO PERHAPS
1000 J/KG. STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INT0 THE 50S BY DAYBREAK THU.
THURSDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND 15-20 DEGREES COOLER.
WINDY BY MID DAY WITH FLOW BRIEFLY BACKING FROM NW TO W AHEAD OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...LIKELY PASSING DURING THE EVENING AND
REINFORING DRY/COOL NW FLOW. FRI MORNING MINS RANGING FROM NEAR 40
ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR TO NEAR 50 SE COAST.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM ALONG THE GULF
COAST TO EAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A PLEASANT STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER. COOLEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS 10-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS THE NORTH TO
MID 60S CENTRAL/SOUTH. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP NIGHTS COOL...IN THE 40S SAT/SUN
MORNINGS...MODIFYING TO MOSTLY 50S BY MONDAY...EXCEPT MID/UPPER
40S N OF INTERSTATE 4.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ESP WHERE RAIN WETTING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. MORNING HIGH
CLOUDS AND PATCHY STRATOCU SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE WHICH
WILL SPARK SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAINLY AFTER 16Z LIFTING
NE. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD BE DAB-MLB BETWEEN 20Z-23Z. WIND FIELDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
(NON CONVECTIVE) LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE AT MOST TERMINALS INCLUDING MCO.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO DETERIORATE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SEAWARD AND PRESSURES
LOWER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CARRY AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR ALL WATERS FOR SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KNOTS TODAY
PRODUCING CHOPPY WIND WAVES MIXED WITH A LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL.
HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILD UP TO 7 FEET. THE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE NEAR SHORE
TONIGHT.
WED...STRONG S/SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO
WEST AS FRONT PASSES DURING THE EVENING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...MAINLY OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-5
FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY WILL BUILD 7-9 FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM MID DAY NORTH TO EARLY EVENING
FAR SOUTH.
THU...STRONG W WINDS CONTINUE...WITH SHIFT TO NW AND A RENEWED
SURGE AS SECONDARY FRONT PASSES DURING THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY WELL
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO SIMILAR
HEIGHTS AS SECONDARY WIND SURGE FILLS IN.
FRI-SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST FROM THE GULF...WINDS
WILL QUICKLY LESSEN FRI AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT BY SUNSET. NW
WIND NEAR 10 KT FRI NIGHT WILL VEER MORE NORTHERLY SAT. SEAS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRI...REACHING 2-3 FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SAT AND IMPROVING
FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 2-3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BY
SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIN RH TO
FALL NEAR/BELOW 35 PERCENT AREAWIDE THU TOGETHER WITH WEST WINDS
15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 AT TIMES AND EXCELLENT DISPERSION.
FRI-SUN...DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH GRADUAL TEMPERATURE
AND MOISTURE RECOVERY OCCURRING IN TANDEM...CAUSING MIN RH TO
FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT AWAY FROM COAST EACH AFTERNOON...ALBEIT
UNDER A LIGHT WIND REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 66 82 50 / 50 30 70 20
MCO 83 67 82 52 / 40 20 70 30
MLB 82 69 84 55 / 50 30 60 30
VRB 82 69 84 56 / 40 20 50 50
LEE 83 67 79 50 / 40 20 70 20
SFB 82 67 81 51 / 40 20 70 20
ORL 82 67 80 52 / 40 20 70 30
FPR 82 69 82 57 / 40 20 40 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
FORECASTS...WIMMER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KELLY
LONG TERM....SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
649 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE FL060-080 CLOUD DECK MOVING NORTH INTO SW
FL INCLUDING KAPF WILL SPREAD NE TO EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING.
ONGOING PRECIP OVER THE KEYS WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH AFFECTING KAPF
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. MAY ALSO SEE THE OCCASIONAL SHRA ALONG EAST
COAST, WITH BETTER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SSE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH EAST COAST SITES ALREADY 9-12KTS INCREASING TO
13-16KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AFTER 14Z. KAPF INCREASES AS WELL TO
10-12KTS. DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SSE WINDS REMAINING
8-10KTS /ALM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016/
..MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...
..COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...NEXT FEW HOURS...GRIDS WERE UPDATED
AND THE POPS LOWERED TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. WITH 00Z SNDG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND STABILITY OVERNIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE APPEARED JUST WAY TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS.
TODAY...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST, AND DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE LOW IN TEXAS.
THE STRENGTHENING S TO SSW WINDS THROUGH H7 WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH FROM CUBA, AND PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 1.40"
AS A RESULT. YOU CAN IN FACT SEE SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRAITS AND KEYS AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE OR MAINLAND MONROE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS OF THIS IS NOT UNANIMOUS AMONG THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF A BIT WITH LATEST
RUNS. THIS IS MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL FLOW AND CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH (OR DEVELOP) THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
MAINLY BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW STILL AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY. A
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT AT THIS STAGE I LEFT IT OUT
OF FORECAST AS LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BARELY 5 C/KM
FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. FOR THE SAME REASONS WILL STAY
AT OR BELOW THE FORECAST POPS FROM THE BLENDED MODELS.
TONIGHT...A WARM NIGHT EXPECTED AS GOOD WAA CONTINUES UNDER DEEP S
TO SW FLOW. MIN TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S IN SE URBAN
SECTIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE RATHER DRY AND PWATS ACTUALLY
FALL A BIT AS SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR RACES NORTHEAST WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FAST MOVING SHOWER. BLENDED POPS MAY BE OVER INFLUENCED BY A VERY
DRY ECMWF MODEL. STUCK WITH JUST SLT CHC.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECENT COLD FRONT NEARING THE WEST
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS/WIND PROFILES LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND WEST COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS DEPICTED IN SPC OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. BUT
I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY, ALBEIT REMOTE, OF SEVERE
WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BOTTOM LINE AS WE LEARNED
LAST WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST AS IT IS AND WE WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. BUT UNLIKE LAST WEEK SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
TN. YET CONSENSUS OF MODELS REFLECT A LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS
WITH HELICITY VALUES OF 100-200 OR LOWER. SO MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THAT SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN BELOW 50 MPH OR SO.
GIVEN LOWER HELICITY VALUES THAN LAST EVENT MAIN CONCERN ARE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AT THIS TIME.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPC WILL OUTLOOK OTHER PARTS OF SOUTH FL AS THE
EVENT NEARS, AND WE STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS IN THE BAHAMAS BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEEP EASTERN TROUGH ALSO DELIVERS DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY BELOW
50F ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY THURS. APPARENT
TEMPS 45F OR BELOW ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS GLADES
COUNTY.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LONG TERM. THE
COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF +6C ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY MORNING
IS LOOKING AS OUR COLDEST MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT FEATURING LOWS
AROUND 40F FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FLIPPING AS TO WHAT THE COLDEST NIGHT COULD BE. THE BOTTOM LINE
HOWEVER IS NICE WEATHER WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY.
MARINE...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT PUTS WINDS AT 15-20 KTS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS NEAR 7 FEET ALONG THE GULF STREAM
THURSDAY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY, AND
THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A RESPITE
THURSDAY, WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH ENTERS
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 71 84 59 / 40 10 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 83 63 / 40 20 20 40
MIAMI 81 72 83 64 / 40 20 20 40
NAPLES 81 68 81 63 / 20 0 40 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
507 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...
...COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
NEXT FEW HOURS...GRIDS WERE UPDATED AND THE POPS LOWERED TO
BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. WITH 00Z SNDG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
STABILITY OVERNIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARED JUST
WAY TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS.
TODAY...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST, AND DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE LOW IN TEXAS.
THE STRENGTHENING S TO SSW WINDS THROUGH H7 WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH FROM CUBA, AND PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 1.40"
AS A RESULT. YOU CAN IN FACT SEE SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRAITS AND KEYS AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE OR MAINLAND MONROE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS OF THIS IS NOT UNANIMOUS AMONG THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF A BIT WITH LATEST
RUNS. THIS IS MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL FLOW AND CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH (OR DEVELOP) THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
MAINLY BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW STILL AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY. A
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT AT THIS STAGE I LEFT IT OUT
OF FORECAST AS LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BARELY 5 C/KM
FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. FOR THE SAME REASONS WILL STAY
AT OR BELOW THE FORECAST POPS FROM THE BLENDED MODELS.
TONIGHT...A WARM NIGHT EXPECTED AS GOOD WAA CONTINUES UNDER DEEP S
TO SW FLOW. MIN TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S IN SE URBAN
SECTIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE RATHER DRY AND PWATS ACTUALLY
FALL A BIT AS SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR RACES NORTHEAST WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FAST MOVING SHOWER. BLENDED POPS MAY BE OVER INFLUENCED BY A VERY
DRY ECMWF MODEL. STUCK WITH JUST SLT CHC.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECENT COLD FRONT NEARING THE WEST
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS/WIND PROFILES LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND WEST COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS DEPICTED IN SPC OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. BUT
I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY, ALBEIT REMOTE, OF SEVERE
WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BOTTOM LINE AS WE LEARNED
LAST WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST AS IT IS AND WE WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. BUT UNLIKE LAST WEEK SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
TN. YET CONSENSUS OF MODELS REFLECT A LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS
WITH HELICITY VALUES OF 100-200 OR LOWER. SO MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THAT SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN BELOW 50 MPH OR SO.
GIVEN LOWER HELICITY VALUES THAN LAST EVENT MAIN CONCERN ARE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AT THIS TIME.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPC WILL OUTLOOK OTHER PARTS OF SOUTH FL AS THE
EVENT NEARS, AND WE STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS IN THE BAHAMAS BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEEP EASTERN TROUGH ALSO DELIVERS DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY BELOW
50F ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY THURS. APPARENT
TEMPS 45F OR BELOW ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS GLADES
COUNTY.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LONG TERM. THE
COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF +6C ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY MORNING
IS LOOKING AS OUR COLDEST MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT FEATURING LOWS
AROUND 40F FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FLIPPING AS TO WHAT THE COLDEST NIGHT COULD BE. THE BOTTOMLINE
HOWEVER IS NICE WEATHER WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT PUTS WINDS AT 15-20 KTS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS NEAR 7 FEET ALONG THE GULF STREAM
THURSDAY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY, AND
THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A RESPITE
THURSDAY, WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH ENTERS
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 71 84 59 / 40 10 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 83 63 / 40 20 20 40
MIAMI 81 72 83 64 / 40 20 20 40
NAPLES 81 68 81 63 / 20 0 40 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02/RG
LONG TERM....52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
605 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z.
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE.
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY 12Z. EXPECT
WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE. DESPITE THE
WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE CSRA TOWARD
SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD
FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF
36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS
PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH GENERAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
THE NAM INDICATED 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD
LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS AROUND 0.40 OF INCH.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING WAS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E
CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONTAL/WEDGE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
OGB...WEST TO JUST NORTH OF DNL. ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY...WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDINESS/IFR CIGS AND IFR
TO MVFR VSBYS IN PROGRESS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SHIFT SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO...CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
SLIP INTO DNL/AGS. CURRENT RADAR ONLY INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CHANCES OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL JUST HANDLE WITH VCSH. THE FRONT AND WEDGE BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD AND
EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MODELS TEND TO MOVE WARM FRONTS
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. WILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT. NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE AN EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
204 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE FRONT WAS NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED LITTLE COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR WEDGING SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE
OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF UPPER LIFT BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER
TO THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME SOUTH PART.
TONIGHT...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 12Z. SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY
12Z. EXPECT WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE.
DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE
CSRA TOWARD SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD
FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF
36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS
PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH GENERAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
THE NAM INDICATED 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD
LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS AROUND 0.40 OF INCH.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING WAS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E
CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONTAL/WEDGE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
OGB...WEST TO JUST NORTH OF DNL. ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY...WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDINESS/IFR CIGS AND IFR
TO MVFR VSBYS IN PROGRESS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SHIFT SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO...CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
SLIP INTO DNL/AGS. CURRENT RADAR ONLY INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CHANCES OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL JUST HANDLE WITH VCSH. THE FRONT AND WEDGE BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD AND
EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MODELS TEND TO MOVE WARM FRONTS
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. WILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT. NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE AN EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE FRONT WAS NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED LITTLE COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR WEDGING SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE
OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF UPPER LIFT BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER
TO THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME SOUTH PART.
TONIGHT...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 12Z. SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY
12Z. EXPECT WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE.
DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE
CSRA TOWARD SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD
FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF
36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS
PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E
CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONTAL/WEDGE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
OGB...WEST TO JUST NORTH OF DNL. ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY...WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDINESS/IFR CIGS AND IFR
TO MVFR VSBYS IN PROGRESS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SHIFT SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO...CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
SLIP INTO DNL/AGS. CURRENT RADAR ONLY INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CHANCES OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL JUST HANDLE WITH VCSH. THE FRONT AND WEDGE BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD AND
EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MODELS TEND TO MOVE WARM FRONTS
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. WILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT. NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE AN EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEDGE FRONT WAS NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED LITTLE COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR WEDGING SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF UPPER
LIFT BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME
SOUTH PART.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD TENNESSEE TONIGHT. WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. TOWARD MORNING 850MB WINDS INCREASE FROM
30 KTS TO 60 KTS IN THE CSRA POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY LIKELY INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RAIN CHANCE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET
OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED
SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR
THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN THE CSRA AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. STRONG WEST FLOW CONTINUES
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING DURING THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH
OF OGB AND EAST OF CAE/CUB. EXPECT MVFR...POSSIBLE
IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL BE
NORTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THAT AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWEST
CIGS/VSBYS AT CAE/CUB. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AFTER 24/08Z AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM EASTERN TX AND TRACKS TOWARD
CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING
AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN TIMING TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR LLWS ATTM...HOWEVER EXPECT THESE TO BE
INCLUDED IN UPCOMING ISSUANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR
THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IT WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE FRONT VERY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING...ONLY SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH DUE TO A WSW UPPER FLOW.
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
AND WEST OF CAE. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING THAT TREND WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT STALLED
NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT SHOWERS. THE MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A REDUCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS HAD POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND THE WEDGE PATTERN
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING A WARM FRONT.
BELIEVE THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG H85 JET. THE MODEL INDICATE H85 WIND INCREASING TO
AROUND 50 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY 12Z. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN INDICATES LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH
SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET
OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED
SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR
THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN THE CSRA AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING DURING THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM CLT THROUGH CENTRAL GA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS AROUND AGS/DNL. EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE DOMINATED BY
WEDGE CONDITIONS CAE/CUB NORTHWARD AND WARM MOIST AIRMASS
ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS AT CAE/CUB. LATE IN THE PERIOD
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF AND BEGINS TRACKING TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
911 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADS WILL
BE SNOW COVERED SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY MAKE TRAVEL
IMPOSSIBLE ON SOME ROADS. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WX HEADLINES PLANNED FOR THIS
EVENING. BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF OUR
CWA TIL 03Z WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND TRANSITION TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THAT TIME. HEAVIEST OF SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE
ENDED WITH GENERALLY JUST LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN THE LARGE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER OUR AREA AND UPSTREAM ATTM. HOWEVER WITH 3-7
INCHES ALREADY DOWN ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND NWLY GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP... HAZARDS
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING GOING. SERN CWA IN
HAS ALL TRANSITIONED TO SNOW NOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN TACT OVER THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DRY
SLOT DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STRONG ASCENT TODAY WHICH
QUICKLY COOLED THE COLUMN AND LED TO RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS CERTAINLY HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING EVENT TO WATCH UNFOLD. HIGH
DGZ...STRONG WINDS AND SATURATED COLUMN BELOW DGZ LED TO AN
INTERESTING PATTERN TODAY WITH PCPN TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS.
OBSERVATIONS AT KIWX SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN JUST A MATTER OF MINUTES. BANDS OF STRONGER
SNOW AND DEEPER LIFT PRODUCED LARGE SNOWFLAKES WHILE INTERMITTENT
PERIODS BETWEEN HEAVIER BANDS SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE DWINDLE TO VERY
FINE FLAKES AND EVEN SNOW PELLETS AND SLEET AT TIMES WITH SOME
MELTING AND REFREEZING. TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WARM LAYER CHANGED PCPN
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE DRY SLOT ENDED PCPN ENTIRELY. WHILE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AREA HAS SEEN THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY...REPORTS FROM KSBN
AND METRO AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES
REPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND
URBAN SETTING THERE MAY HAVE BEEN FASTER COMPACTION AND MELTING
PROCESSES WITH SNOW ON GROUND COMPARED TO MORE RURAL AREAS.
REST OF EVENING WILL SEE DRY SLOT FILL IN AS EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ROTATES NORTH. DEFORMATION ZONE TO EXPAND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY. COLDER AIR WILL EXPAND EAST
AND SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TYPE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING IN FAR EAST.
RUC AND HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TYPES TODAY AND USED THESE
ALONG WITH NAM12 BLENDED FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN POWT PROCESS
FOR FORECAST GRIDS. LIQUID SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW AS EXPECTED
WITH AROUND 10 TO 1 AVERAGE. SHOULD SEE THESE IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR AND DGZ LOWERING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING OFF THE LAKE INTO NW AND NC INDIANA WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW. OVERALL INHERITED ACCUMS LOOK GOOD WITH REPORTS
RECEIVED ALREADY...TOTAL ACCUMS AROUND A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE NW
INDIANA TO SW MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW COMES TO AN
END.
HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG WITH WINDS JUST BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA HAS
KEPT NW AREAS FROM SEEING TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WARRANT KEEPING THE BZW IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME STRONGER GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH GRADIENT AS
WELL. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS INTACT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY EAST
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EASTWARD AND
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING
MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND ALEUTIANS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
US. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF
ALEUTIAN LOW AND ENTERING WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
SUNDAY...BUT THEN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TRANSITION PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AS THIS FIRST
SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE
COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS INVERTED TROF EXTENDING UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
LOW LIFTING NE INTO LAKE ERIE THIS EVE WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND INTO NE INDIANA CAUSING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT FWA.
LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LOW WILL CONT TO
CAUSE SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS FURTHER DECREASED BY BLSN AS
STRONG N-NW WINDS CONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY THU AFTN AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND NW WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009-018-
025>027-032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016-
017-022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ003-004-012>015-020.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD 1002MB SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING...STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVER C LA INTO MS. OTHER THAN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SW LA TO C LA...THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE REMAINING OFFSHORE ACROSS THE 20-60NM COASTAL
WATERS AND BEYOND. SLIGHT RISK STILL OUTLINED FROM THE SABINE
EASTWARD...BUT LOOKING UNLIKELY FOR SVR WX THREAT ACROSS W LA AT
THIS TIME. STILL THINKING THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACADIANA
EASTWARD WHERE THE ENHANCED RISK IS OUTLINED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS PER 16Z SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE. ONGOING
FORECAST ON TRACK IN OUTLINE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MAY HAVE TO RE-WORD WX DESCRIPTIONS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
ONGOING HAZARDS ON TRACK. REWORDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
CAMERON AND VERMILION TO REACH NEAR 3.0-3.5 FEET MLLW...AND
3.5-4.0 FT MLLW FOR INTRACOASTAL CITY EASTWARD TO THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER WHERE THE SW ONSHORE WINDS STILL LOOKS TO CAUSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING TIMES WILL REMAIN...AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND STRENGTHENS...MUCH STRONGER W TO NW
WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU WED AFTERNOON.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING INTO EAST TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER CENTRAL TX
PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION. ORGANIZING SFC LOW OVER EAST TX
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE...PULLING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE COAST NWD AS A WARM FRONT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC WIND FIELDS ARE FCST TO
MARKEDLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION OF A 50-60KT
LLJ...EASILY SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER SHOULD DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZE.
LOW CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PCPN THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SHRA/TSRA COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/
.POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...
SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...DIGGING OVER WRN TX. THIS TROF WAS BEGINNING TO INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES ACRS SRN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ALREADY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING N-S ACRS TX...WITH SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACRS SRN TX TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TX COAST. A WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FM THE LOW EAST
ACRS THE UPR TX COAST TOWARD BTR...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT DRIFTED SOUTHWARD MONDAY. OVERNIGHT OBS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG
ACRS SW/CNTL LA...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION.
VSBYS ARE NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
24
DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED TODAY
AS IT MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LVL SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS
ERN TX INTO NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SFC PRESSURES FALLING A
GOOD 10 MB DURING THAT TIME. THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY SLY WINDS ACRS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO NR 20 MPH BY MIDDAY.
GUSTS ACRS THE AREA COULD APPROACH 35 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONG SLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING TIDAL PILEUP ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SABINE LAKE. THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR WEATHER.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. A STRONG MID LVL JET...NEAR 100
KT...WILL PIVOT THE BASE OF THE TROF AND OVER THE STRONG SLY LOW
LVL FLOW. THIS WILL SETUP VERY FAVORABLE WIND DYNAMICS FOR SVR
STORMS...WITH STRONG SHEAR NR 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. INSTABILITY...WHILE INITIALLY
LIMITED...SHOULD IMPROVE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC LOW/FRONT ENCOUNTER
AN AIRMASS WARMED SOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL
BE THE EFFECT OF THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FM TX
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...AND
WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE. LASTLY...COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LVL HT FALLS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...WITH
MUCAPES FCST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 800-1300 J/KG BY AFTN. WITH ALL
THESE FACTORS IN PLACE...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SVR HAZARDS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TODAY...WITH A MODT RISK JUST
NOSING INTO THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND A SLIGHT RISK
ACRS OUR SE TX COUNTIES.
AS FOR THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER
OUR SE TX COUNTIES BY MID-AFTN...REACHING AN AEX-LCH LINE BY
00Z AND EXITING OUR ERN ZONES BY 03Z THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF ALOFT
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE BRINGING A RATHER QUICK END TO THE
STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WRN/CNTL LA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE STRONG LOW LVL CIRCULATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST THEN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO CLR ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE GULF COAST. BELOW NORMAL
LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST. LOW RAIN CHCS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.
24
MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INITIALLY
IN EFFECT THIS MORNING WILL UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME
STRONG...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACRS
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W-NW AND
STRENGTHENING FURTHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BUT STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH DURING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MOSTLY OFFSHORE
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 44 56 38 / 100 50 10 0
LCH 73 47 61 40 / 100 20 10 0
LFT 74 48 60 39 / 100 30 10 0
BPT 74 47 62 39 / 100 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING INTO EAST TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER CENTRAL TX
PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION. ORGANIZING SFC LOW OVER EAST TX
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE...PULLING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE COAST NWD AS A WARM FRONT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC WIND FIELDS ARE FCST TO
MARKEDLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION OF A 50-60KT
LLJ...EASILY SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER SHOULD DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZE.
LOW CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PCPN THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SHRA/TSRA COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/
..POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...
SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...DIGGING OVER WRN TX. THIS TROF WAS BEGINNING TO INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES ACRS SRN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ALREADY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING N-S ACRS TX...WITH SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACRS SRN TX TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TX COAST. A WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FM THE LOW EAST
ACRS THE UPR TX COAST TOWARD BTR...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT DRIFTED SOUTHWARD MONDAY. OVERNIGHT OBS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG
ACRS SW/CNTL LA...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION.
VSBYS ARE NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
24
DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED TODAY
AS IT MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LVL SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS
ERN TX INTO NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SFC PRESSURES FALLING A
GOOD 10 MB DURING THAT TIME. THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY SLY WINDS ACRS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO NR 20 MPH BY MIDDAY.
GUSTS ACRS THE AREA COULD APPROACH 35 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONG SLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING TIDAL PILEUP ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SABINE LAKE. THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR WEATHER.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. A STRONG MID LVL JET...NEAR 100
KT...WILL PIVOT THE BASE OF THE TROF AND OVER THE STRONG SLY LOW
LVL FLOW. THIS WILL SETUP VERY FAVORABLE WIND DYNAMICS FOR SVR
STORMS...WITH STRONG SHEAR NR 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. INSTABILITY...WHILE INITIALLY
LIMITED...SHOULD IMPROVE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC LOW/FRONT ENCOUNTER
AN AIRMASS WARMED SOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL
BE THE EFFECT OF THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FM TX
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...AND
WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE. LASTLY...COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LVL HT FALLS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...WITH
MUCAPES FCST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 800-1300 J/KG BY AFTN. WITH ALL
THESE FACTORS IN PLACE...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SVR HAZARDS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TODAY...WITH A MODT RISK JUST
NOSING INTO THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND A SLIGHT RISK
ACRS OUR SE TX COUNTIES.
AS FOR THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER
OUR SE TX COUNTIES BY MID-AFTN...REACHING AN AEX-LCH LINE BY
00Z AND EXITING OUR ERN ZONES BY 03Z THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF ALOFT
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE BRINGING A RATHER QUICK END TO THE
STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WRN/CNTL LA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE STRONG LOW LVL CIRCULATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST THEN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO CLR ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE GULF COAST. BELOW NORMAL
LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST. LOW RAIN CHCS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.
24
MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INITIALLY
IN EFFECT THIS MORNING WILL UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME
STRONG...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACRS
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W-NW AND
STRENGTHENING FURTHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BUT STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH DURING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MOSTLY OFFSHORE
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 44 56 38 / 100 50 10 0
LCH 73 47 61 40 / 100 20 10 0
LFT 74 48 60 39 / 100 30 10 0
BPT 74 47 62 39 / 100 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY
FOR GMZ452-455-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-470.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
521 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
...POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...DIGGING OVER WRN TX. THIS TROF WAS BEGINNING TO INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES ACRS SRN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ALREADY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING N-S ACRS TX...WITH SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACRS SRN TX TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TX COAST. A WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FM THE LOW EAST
ACRS THE UPR TX COAST TOWARD BTR...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT DRIFTED SOUTHWARD MONDAY. OVERNIGHT OBS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG
ACRS SW/CNTL LA...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION.
VSBYS ARE NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED TODAY
AS IT MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LVL SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS
ERN TX INTO NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SFC PRESSURES FALLING A
GOOD 10 MB DURING THAT TIME. THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY SLY WINDS ACRS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO NR 20 MPH BY MIDDAY.
GUSTS ACRS THE AREA COULD APPROACH 35 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONG SLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING TIDAL PILEUP ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SABINE LAKE. THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR WEATHER.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. A STRONG MID LVL JET...NEAR 100
KT...WILL PIVOT THE BASE OF THE TROF AND OVER THE STRONG SLY LOW
LVL FLOW. THIS WILL SETUP VERY FAVORABLE WIND DYNAMICS FOR SVR
STORMS...WITH STRONG SHEAR NR 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. INSTABILITY...WHILE INITIALLY
LIMITED...SHOULD IMPROVE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC LOW/FRONT ENCOUNTER
AN AIRMASS WARMED SOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL
BE THE EFFECT OF THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FM TX
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...AND
WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE. LASTLY...COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LVL HT FALLS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...WITH
MUCAPES FCST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 800-1300 J/KG BY AFTN. WITH ALL
THESE FACTORS IN PLACE...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SVR HAZARDS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TODAY...WITH A MODT RISK JUST
NOSING INTO THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND A SLIGHT RISK
ACRS OUR SE TX COUNTIES.
AS FOR THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER
OUR SE TX COUNTIES BY MID-AFTN...REACHING AN AEX-LCH LINE BY
00Z AND EXITING OUR ERN ZONES BY 03Z THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF ALOFT
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE BRINGING A RATHER QUICK END TO THE
STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WRN/CNTL LA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE STRONG LOW LVL CIRCULATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST THEN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO CLR ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE GULF COAST. BELOW NORMAL
LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST. LOW RAIN CHCS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INITIALLY
IN EFFECT THIS MORNING WILL UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME
STRONG...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACRS
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W-NW AND
STRENGTHENING FURTHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BUT STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH DURING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MOSTLY OFFSHORE
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 44 56 38 / 100 50 10 0
LCH 73 47 61 40 / 100 20 10 0
LFT 74 48 60 39 / 100 30 10 0
BPT 74 47 62 39 / 100 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY
FOR GMZ452-455-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A FALLING
CLOUD DECK AND WORRISOME FALL IN VISIBILITY. LFT/ARA TAF SITES ARE
REPORTING 1/4 SM VISIBILITY AND VV002 FEET. DO NOT SEE ANY
IMPROVEMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE CONDITIONS WERE MUCH BETTER...THE
CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO FALL. EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP MOST AREAS
AS WARM AIR RETURNS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH.
ITS DEFINITELY AN UGLY PICTURE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STORMY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A VIGOROUS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM TEXAS AND RUMBLE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A NE-SW ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OPELOUSAS AREA. HAVE BEGUN TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AREA-WIDE AND ACCORDINGLY INTRODUCED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE FORECAST. ACADIANA WILL BE A PRIME LOCATION FOR
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. WILL BE MONITORING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A RATHER QUIET NIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A
FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE INCOMING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY HEADING OUR WAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND THE AREA ARE ACTUALLY VFR IN MANY LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR BPT AND AEX. THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN A BRIEF STATE OF
STABILITY AS THE COOL FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND STALLED SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WE LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THIS NEUTRAL STATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POPPING
UP. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINS COME IN EARNEST TOMORROW AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. FRONTAL TIMING COULD BE
A LITTLE TRICKY BUT THE HRRR HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BPT AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LOUISIANA TERMINALS BETWEEN BY 24/03Z. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEPS THE LOW CLOUDS OUT.
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS STALLED COLD FRONT OVER INLAND SE TX THRU C LA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA ACROSS SE TX INTO LA. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO BASICALLY REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS SE TX AND LA TUE. WITH THIS WILL COME ALL ASPECTS OF
SVR WX POSSIBLE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
TORNADOS/DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE...AND THE SQUALL LINE ALONG
THE FROPA/OCCLUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE FORECASTED 992MB-988MB SFC
LOW OVER N LA. FOR THIS..SPC UPGRADED DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
WITH SE TX UNDER SLIGHT RISK...MOST OF C AND SC UNDER ENHANCED
RISK...AND EAST OF THE AREA MODERATE RISK.
ONCE THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW AND DEEP SFC LOW MOVES NE OF
THE REGION...STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WRAP AROUND EXPECTED...NOT
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES UNTIL WED. FOR THU-FRI SURFACE HIGH
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND NO PRECIP TO THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
SUN INTO NEXT MON.
DML
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES
THRU 6 PM. SE TO S WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY TO
NEAR 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS QUICKLY DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE LIKELY AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VERY STRONG WEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DML
COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND TIMING OF HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET MLLW.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 54 69 45 57 / 30 90 50 10
LCH 58 71 47 61 / 30 90 30 10
LFT 58 72 47 59 / 30 90 50 10
BPT 60 73 46 62 / 30 90 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1023 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A NE-SW ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OPELOUSAS AREA. HAVE BEGUN TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AREA-WIDE AND ACCORDINGLY INTRODUCED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE FORECAST. ACADIANA WILL BE A PRIME LOCATION FOR
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. WILL BE MONITORING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A RATHER QUIET NIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A
FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE INCOMING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY HEADING OUR WAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND THE AREA ARE ACTUALLY VFR IN MANY LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR BPT AND AEX. THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN A BRIEF STATE OF
STABILITY AS THE COOL FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND STALLED SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WE LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THIS NEUTRAL STATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POPPING
UP. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINS COME IN EARNEST TOMORROW AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. FRONTAL TIMING COULD BE
A LITTLE TRICKY BUT THE HRRR HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BPT AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LOUISIANA TERMINALS BETWEEN BY 24/03Z. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEPS THE LOW CLOUDS OUT.
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS STALLED COLD FRONT OVER INLAND SE TX THRU C LA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA ACROSS SE TX INTO LA. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO BASICALLY REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS SE TX AND LA TUE. WITH THIS WILL COME ALL ASPECTS OF
SVR WX POSSIBLE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
TORNADOS/DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE...AND THE SQUALL LINE ALONG
THE FROPA/OCCLUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE FORECASTED 992MB-988MB SFC
LOW OVER N LA. FOR THIS..SPC UPGRADED DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
WITH SE TX UNDER SLIGHT RISK...MOST OF C AND SC UNDER ENHANCED
RISK...AND EAST OF THE AREA MODERATE RISK.
ONCE THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW AND DEEP SFC LOW MOVES NE OF
THE REGION...STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WRAP AROUND EXPECTED...NOT
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES UNTIL WED. FOR THU-FRI SURFACE HIGH
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND NO PRECIP TO THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
SUN INTO NEXT MON.
DML
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES
THRU 6 PM. SE TO S WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY TO
NEAR 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS QUICKLY DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE LIKELY AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VERY STRONG WEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DML
COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND TIMING OF HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET MLLW.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 54 69 45 57 / 30 90 50 10
LCH 58 71 47 61 / 30 90 30 10
LFT 58 72 47 59 / 30 90 50 10
BPT 60 73 46 62 / 30 90 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
907 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
EARLIER THIS EVENING...A QUASI STATIONARY REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING SUPPORTED AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL...ALIGNED
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE IRISH HILLS. THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SINCE LIFTED NORTHWARD WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTED A DECREASE IN THE SLOPE OF THE THETA SURFACES. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A RAPID REFOCUSING OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL NORTHWARD INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...WITH A
LARGE BREAK IN THE SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW
COUNTIES. THE REGION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY ADVANCE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING ACROSS SRN MI BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A SECOND REGION OF PRECIP HAS ADVANCED INTO
MONROE AND WAYNE/SRN MACOMB COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG FGEN NEAR 850MB. THIS
HAS BEEN MORE CONVECTIVE AND IS PRODUCING A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET
AND RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO LIGHT SNOW TOWARD EARLY THURS
MORNING AS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WORKS BACK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
AVAILABLE SPOTTER REPORTS THIS EVENING SUGGEST A SOLID 6 TO 10
INCHES HAS FALLEN NORTH AND WEST OF AN ADRIAN TO PORT HURON LINE
/ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRISH HILLS/. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THIS LINE WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES AS PRECIP TURNED
OVER TO RAIN IN THESE LOCALS. GIVEN THE LARGE BREAK IN PRECIP
ACROSS LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AND CONSIDERING THE SNOW
THAT MOVES BACK INTO THESE AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE WARNING FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES WILL BE
UNCHANGED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2
TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NRN SAGINAW
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IN THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING...WHICH
CERTAINLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN EARLIER
CANCELLATION TO SOME OF THE HEADLINES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST
PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 614 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
KPTK HAS REMAINED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THIS REGION OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
MAY SUSTAIN AT LEAST LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AT PTK
THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...FNT AND MBS WILL REMAINED
POSITIONED TO SEE CONTINUED MODERATE SNOW...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW...THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL
WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW /TRACKING INTO ERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT/ WILL SUSTAIN GUSTY
WINDS /OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES/ INTO THURS MORNING. TOTAL NIGHTTIME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM PTK NORTH WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES.
FOR DTW...A GRADUAL EROSION OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS. GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LOW...PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THROUGH THE
EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE EVENING ACCUMULATIONS. LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL WRAP BACK INTO
METRO DETROIT. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO PUSH
BACK ACROSS THE AIRPORT...WITH WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK THURS.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
* HIGH IN RAIN CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
DISCUSSION...
WARM CONVEYOR BELT WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO BRUNT OF THE WINTER STORM FOR CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH EXCELLENT SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND AND ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OFF AND
ON NATURE OF PRECIPITATION...ALLOWED FOR TREATED/HIGH TRAFFIC ROADS
TO BE MAINLY WET WITH THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE...UP UNTIL THE
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ARRIVED. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
SOLIDLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...WITH EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF SAGINAW BAY/SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES 1/4SM OR LESS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY...AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY NEAR ZERO CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A PERIOD TO
SUPPORT BLIZZARD WARNING.
WITH THE IMPINGING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASING UP NEAR 6.75 C/KM TOWARD OHIO BORDER...A LIGHTNING STRIKE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER 12Z
EURO/RAP13...A ONE TO THREE C WARM LAYER...NEAR 850 MB
LEVEL...EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF WESTERN MONROE...WESTERN
WAYNE...NORTHEAST TO PORT HURON LINE THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION (DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY) INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (LITTLE ACCUMULATION) IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH DAYTON AND THEN IN
BETWEEN CLEVELAND AND AKRON LATE. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR BLEED
IN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH BIGGEST DROP
PROBABLY HOLDING OFF LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON
NORTHWEST DIRECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO SETTLE TO -8 C
OR SLIGHTLY COLDER.
700 MB LOW/CIRCULATION LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT FAIRLY ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-
SOUTH FASHION...CALLING INTO QUESTION EXACTLY WHERE THE BETTER
DEFORMATION/MID LEVEL FGEN/FORCING WILL RESIDE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
PLENTY OF EVIDENCE TO MAINTAIN BAND(S) ACROSS NORTH HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH COOLING PROFILES LEADING TO BETTER
RATIOS AS NIGHT WEARS ON. 12HR EURO QPF FOR TONIGHT STILL INDICATING
0.35 TO 0.5 INCHES NORTH OF M-59. TWEAKED TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN
SLIGHTLY (AROUND ONE INCH) FROM MORNING UPDATE...AS COMPACTION IS A
FACTOR AND SLEET EXTENDED JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...BUT ALL CURRENT
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. ALTHOUGH...NOT IN LOVE WITH THE ADVISORY FOR
MONROE COUNTY...AS LITTLE ISSUES EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NONE-THE-
LESS...WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW RETURNING BY THURSDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS BY THEN.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STILL ON TRACK TO KICK THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ALLOW SNOW TO
TAPER OFF NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON THURSDAY...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER AND STILL SOME 925 MB COLD ADVECTION...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW TO TAKE HOLD...AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE LOW TO
MID TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT...A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY WILL
TEND TO END ANY ACTIVITY AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE IN THE
DAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST CANADIAN LOW DROPS OVER THE DAKOTA`S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BEGINS ITS EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD MICHIGAN. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST. AT PRESENT...INCREASING CHANCES
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURES DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY STABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30`S AND LOWS IN THE
20`S.
MARINE...
GUSTS TO STRONG NORTHEAST GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
HELPING TO BUILD SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
AND POSSIBLY THE EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TIP OF THE THUMB TO
13 FEET WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 20 FEET. AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE EAST...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGER FETCH WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BUILD TO 16 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON WITH MAX WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 25 FEET OR GREATER. GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON
REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY BEFORE FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF ONE HALF INCH IN EXPECTED NORTH OF I-
69 THROUGH TONIGHT ONE TO TWO TENTHS TO THE SOUTH. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF AN ADRIAN TO PORT HURON LINE...ABOUT HALF WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE...ALL QPF WILL GO INTO SNOWPACK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ075-076-082-
083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF/DE
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
659 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SE
CONUS FROM A LOW N OF HUDSON BAY. A STORM SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 987MB LOW OVER SW OHIO DOMINATING THE
ERN CONUS RESULTED IN INCREASING N TO NE WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS MARGINAL
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...ABUNDANT UPSTREAM 925-850 MB MOISTURE
ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT -SHSN INTO WRN
UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS FROM AROUND
30 NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WEAK CAA DROPS 850 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/THU. FCST LOW LEVEL CONV SUGGESTS THAT
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST NEAR IWD AND N CNTRL NEAR THE HURON
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 4K-5K FT...ANY AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR CNTRL AND EAST MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME BLSN
WHERE ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR.
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CAA AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS PULLING
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -15C TO -17C RANGE...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LES OVER LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NRLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NNW THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST OF MARQUETTE AND E OF
IWD. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. WITH
MORE LOOSE SNOW AVAILABLE TO BLOW AROUND...THE 30-35 MPH WINDS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF REDUCED VSBY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CHILLY WX/SOME LES ON THU NGT INTO FRI WL GIVE WAY TO A MILDER
PERIOD ON FRI NGT/SAT AS THE UPR FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL AND UPR
MI ENDS UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.
THE COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO THIS LO PRES WL PASS THRU THE CWA ON SAT
NGT...BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER WX. AS A SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA...A SFC LO PRES IS FCST TO MOVE E ALONG THE COLD FNT TO THE
S...LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SYNTOPIC SN TO THE CWA ON SUN INTO
SUN NGT. SEASONABLY CHILLY WX SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE LIGHT SN ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER CLIPPER LO
PRES ON MON.
THU NGT...ONGOING LES WL MOST PERSISTENT IN THE NNW WIND SN BELTS E
OF MQT AS COLD AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -16 TO -18C OVER
THE E HALF THRU 12Z FRI...CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE UPR LKS BTWN HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND DEPARTING SFC LO IN
QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM LLVL AIRMASS...
INVRN BASES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 4-5K FT MSL...H85-6 DRYNESS DESPITE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHRTWV DO NOT FAVOR ANY SGNFT SN ACCUMS...SOME
LLVL CNVGC ALONG LK INDUCED TROFFING INTO ALGER COUNTY AND FAVORABLE
PLACEMENT OF THE DGZ IN THE MOIST LYR BLO THE INVRN BASE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SN IN SOME AREAS. LINGERING BLSN IN THE
EVNG WL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS WITH THE SLOW
APRCH OF THE HI PRES. THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ACYC H925 FLOW/
LOWERING INVRN BASE WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE HI PRES WL DIMINISH
LINGERING LES OVER THE W DURING THE OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS
MAY TEND TO BREAK UP LATE OVER THE W...SOME INCOMING HI CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WEAK SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.
FRI/FRI NGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS CROSSES THE WRN GREAT LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WSW ON FRI...LINGERING LES WL DIMINISH AND
END. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS MAY TEND TO SHIFT OUT OVER LK SUP...
MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHRTWV AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS WL RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI
CLD COVER. BUT FCST DRYNESS OF THE H85-7 LYR IN THE ABSENCE OF LLVL
MSTR INFLOW WL RESTRICT LO CHC POPS TO MAINLY LK SUP CLOSER TO SFC
LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. AS THE WAA LIFTS H85 TEMPS BACK TO -6
TO -8C LATE OVER THE W BY 00Z SAT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND AT LEAST
CLOSE TO 30. A STEADY WSW WIND AND THE MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE FALL
OF TEMPS ON FRI NGT.
SAT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE RECENT TREND SHOWING SFC COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO AND MOVING INTO QUEBEC
REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA THRU 00Z SUN. WITH THE WAA FCST TO
LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 4C ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 00Z SUN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S
DESPITE SOME LINGERING HI CLDS. POSTED THE HIEST MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
WI BORDER...WHERE THERE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SOME SUNSHINE FARTHER S
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S THRU
THE CWA ON SAT NGT TO THE S OF CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD NW ONTARIO.
WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF WL OCCUR UNDER DRY AIR AND THUS LIKELY BE
PCPN FREE...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AN AXIS OF HIER MID LVL
MSTR WL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA BY SUN AHEAD OF AN APRCHG
SHRTWV THAT WL ALSO CAUSE A LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE BNDRY
SINKING SLOWLY TO THE S. AS THIS WAVE OF LO PRES SHIFTS TO THE E
THRU SCENTRAL WI UNDER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA OF UPR DVGC
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET MAX OVER SE CANADA AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...THE MODELS SHOW WDSPRD MAINLY SN DVLPG OVER THE CWA ON SUN
UNDER AXIS OF H7 FGEN. WHILE MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SN...
GFS FCST SDNGS HINT AT AN ELEVATED WARM LYR OVER THE S HALF OF MNM
COUNTY...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING RA/RA IN THAT AREA
INTO SUN AFTN AND BEFORE THE COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THAT AREA. THE
12Z CNDN MODEL IS PARTICULARLY WET...WITH 12HR QPF UP TO 0.75 INCH
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BTWN 18Z SUN AND 06Z MON. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE NOT
THAT WET BUT GENERATE AS MUCH AS 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN TIER WHERE SHARPENING CYC NE FLOW ARND THE LO PRES WAVE WL
UPSLOPE AND BRING SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -12
TO -14C. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...SYNTOPIC SN WL TRANSITION TO
LES.
EXTENDED...THE EXTENDED MODELS...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS...HINT
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE WL MOVE NEAR THE AREA ON MON. SO
THE FCST WL SHOW SOME CHC POPS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN HINT
ANOTHER SFC LO DVLPG OVER THE SCENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE TOWARD THE SE
GREAT LKS BY WED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE
SE...BUT RETAINED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP WITH
LLVL NNE FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SFC LO POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
LES. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE NEAR EARLY MAR NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND THU...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ON THU. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE AT
TIMES. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VIS...
ESPECIALLY THU. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...PARTICULARLY AT KSAW
DUE TO FAVORABLE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION AND TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
BTWN HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES LIFTING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WILL WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO SHIFTSINTO N QUEBEC. THE RESULT WILL BE N-NE
GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES THURSDAY BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE REPLACED BY A
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WHILE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES N
ONTARIO. SW GUSTS COULD NEAR 30KTS FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
WRN LAKES SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BRIEFLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A CLIPPER LOW MOVE IN MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
554 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN
LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN
INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA
HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE
SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG
WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST
HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO
NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW
SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV
ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10
INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE
STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND
TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO
LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS
FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW
PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR CIGS OVER WRN UPPER MI ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KSAW THIS
EVENING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER KIWD AND KCMX AND THEN SPREAD INTO KSAW BY MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBY AT KIWD AND PUT THAT IN FOR
OVERNIGHT. AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT NRLY
AND BRING CIGS DOWN TO IFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY FROM -SHSN/FLURRIES
AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS OF TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN
LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN
INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA
HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE
SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG
WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST
HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO
NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW
SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV
ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10
INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE
STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND
TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO
LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS
FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW
PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR CIGS OVER WRN UPPER MI ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO INTO KSAW
THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND THEN
SPREAD INTO KSAW LATE EVENING. VSBY WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AT
KIWD AND KSAW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT NRLY AND BRING CIGS DOWN TO
IFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY FROM -SHSN/FLURRIES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS OF TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN
LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN
INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA
HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE
SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG
WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST
HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO
NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW
SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV
ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10
INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE
STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND
TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO
LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS
FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW
PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR CIGS OVER WRN UPPER MI ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO INTO KSAW
THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND THEN
SPREAD INTO KSAW LATE EVENING. VSBY WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AT
KIWD AND KSAW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT NRLY AND BRING CIGS DOWN TO
IFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY FROM -SHSN/FLURRIES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES...SW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNDER 25KT TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20
KTS OR LESS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS STILL A GREAT AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT W-NW GALES TO 35 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1203 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WRN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI
SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM NE MN INTO NW WI WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING
INTO SRN MANITOBA.
TONIGHT...AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SLIDES TO THE EAST...MAINLY
JUST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS OF MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLOW.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK TO
MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING...A HALF INCH OR
LESS. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY SOUTHWESTER THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME A 500MB SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA INTO QUEBEC. THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING OVER
THE WEST HALF AND THEN OVER THE EAST HALF OVERNIGHT. THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERALL WITH MODELS ONLY PAINTING OUT AROUND 0.06 INCHES OF LIQUID
QPF ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1 WOULD GIVE
MOST PLACES A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH TO AT MOST AN INCH. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH ALONG
WITH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT AROUND -10C. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO CREATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTH WINDS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH IT. COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS. THE EAST HALF...THE LES
POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF MOISTURE
WRAPS BACK INTO THE EAST THEN CHANCE MAY BE INCREASED OVER THAT
AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OVER
MAINLY FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH IS LESS FAVORED FOR
MODERATE OR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT ON NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN
AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS
ARE PROGGED TO BECOME WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SLIDE FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY FRIDAY EVENING TO WESTERN
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING
TIME PERIOD. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE -20C TO -25C RANGE. THIS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT
LOCATIONS FOR THE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS
MODELS TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUES TO LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH CAA WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AGAIN...AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE MAY CAUSE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.P. BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS HAVE
NOT HAD A GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN OR FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUE MORNING AT ALL SITES. KIWD WILL
GO TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND STAY THERE FOR MOST OF TUE WITH LIGHT SNOW
MOVING IN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD GO BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR AT KIWD TUE
EVENING. WILL GO MVFR TUE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND THEN GO BRIEFLY TO
IFR AT KCMX IN LIGHT SHOW TUE EVENING. AT KSAW...WILL GO TO MVFR TUE
MORNING AND THEN COULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD AT
3000 FEET TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 25KT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL
A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NW GALES TO 40
KNOTS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
253 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
Have made some significant adjustments to the forecast that
include metro St. Louis. A winter weather advisory and a wind
advisory has already been issued for late tonight and tomorrow.
Water vapor shows that the upper low is bottoming out over the
Southern Plains that will move northeast tonight and tomorrow
morning through the Mid South into the Ohio Valley. The 12Z run of
the GFS showed a slight shift to the northwest with the axis of
the precipitation whereas the 12Z ECMWF is slightly farther to
southeast. GFS is showing intense frontogenesis that will move
along the northwestern edge of precipitation band from the
eastern Ozarks into central Illinois including the St. Louis metro
area from 09-15Z that will likely be producing heavy
precipitation rates. Forecast soundings indicate that this will be
snow. The latest runs from the HRRR, WRF, and RAP all are
supporting this, showing mesoscale banding moving up into eastern
Missouri and southwestern Illinois late tonight and early
Wednesday. So expect precipitation to move into the area this
evening and overnight through the morning hours, with more snow
now given the amount of forcing slightly colder soundings.
This now justifies issuing an advisory for the southeastern half of
the CWA of snowfall amounts. There will be a time in the morning
where the snow could be heavy at times with big wet heavy flakes.
It will also be windy as the pressure gradient will be tightening
as the surface low deepens. Have also issued a wind advisory for
the same location as the winter weather advisory.
Have lowered temperatures below guidance. Temperatures will be
hampered from rising tomorrow by the clouds and the precipitation.
Precipitation will end from west to east during the afternoon as the
system begins to lift out of the area.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
Still looks like we will stay dry from Thursday into Saturday as
there will not be much moisture to work with under northwesterly
flow aloft. Temperatures will go from below normal to back above
normal for the weekend. Still looks like a system will bring us a
chance of precipitation on Sunday night.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
For KUIN/KCOU...VFR and dry thru most of the period. Cigs will
gradually lower this evening. Cigs shud drop into high-end MVFR at
COU Wed morning. Otherwise, winds will increase and back slightly
overnight.
Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: The forecast is still being
updated, but latest guidance suggests a band of SN will set up
further NW than initially thought. This would place a band of SN
to impact terminals late tonight thru mid Wed morning. Since
exactly where this band will set up will have a huge impact on
visbys, kept visbys in low IFR for now. Snowfall amounts are also
still being worked out, but latest thoughts of 3 inches, possibly
more, are currently expected.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Wednesday FOR Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR
Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison
IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair
IL-Washington IL.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A FEW
WEAK BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY BUT THESE HAVE MOSTLY
DIED OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE OROGRAPHY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE UPDATED PRIMARILY TO
LOWER POPS AND SKY COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE ALSO MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS.
HAVE ALSO HAD TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. MPJ
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES
WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SOME
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS, BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE KHLN AND KBZN
TERMINALS. AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
CANADIAN COLD FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
22Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE AND BRING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 8000 TO 10000 FT MSL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 505 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GONE
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT, AS DEPICTED WITH HRRR ANALYSIS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY KEEPING A COOL BUT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH
THE WESTERN US BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH
OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS A
COUPLE OF IMPLICATIONS LOCALLY. FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SECONDLY, REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN US COURTESY THE HUDSON BAY LOW. WITH
EACH SURGE, THE COLDEST AIR TRIES TO EDGE WEST INTO MONTANA, BUT
THE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR WEST IT GETS. FOR NOW, THINKING
THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA COULD BRIEFLY GET GLANCED BY
SOME COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF LOW AND ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW, LEANING TOWARDS AN ECMWF/GEFS
SOLUTION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME. THIS SOLUTION LEADS TO AN INCREASE
IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON,
INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF/GEFS. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE TRICKY PART OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP TYPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT
ON THIS POINT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAIN VS SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS LOWER AT THIS TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BEYOND
THE WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. MARTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 18 46 24 45 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 21 44 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 23 43 23 44 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 15 37 13 38 / 10 0 0 0
WEY 7 29 10 30 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 16 36 17 40 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 17 46 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 17 43 21 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
938 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A FEW WEAK BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY BUT
THESE HAVE MOSTLY DIED OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE OROGRAPHY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
UPDATED PRIMARILY TO LOWER POPS AND SKY COVER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ALSO HAD TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. MPJ
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0005Z.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH VARIABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE OVER MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH SKIES CLEARING THEREAFTER FOR WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS 0F 20 TO 30 KT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES BY 18Z. MPJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 505 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GONE
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT, AS DEPICTED WITH HRRR ANALYSIS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY KEEPING A COOL BUT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH
THE WESTERN US BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH
OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS A
COUPLE OF IMPLICATIONS LOCALLY. FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SECONDLY, REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN US COURTESY THE HUDSON BAY LOW. WITH
EACH SURGE, THE COLDEST AIR TRIES TO EDGE WEST INTO MONTANA, BUT
THE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR WEST IT GETS. FOR NOW, THINKING
THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA COULD BRIEFLY GET GLANCED BY
SOME COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF LOW AND ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW, LEANING TOWARDS AN ECMWF/GEFS
SOLUTION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME. THIS SOLUTION LEADS TO AN INCREASE
IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON,
INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF/GEFS. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE TRICKY PART OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP TYPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT
ON THIS POINT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAIN VS SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS LOWER AT THIS TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BEYOND
THE WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. MARTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 18 46 24 45 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 21 44 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 23 43 23 44 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 15 37 13 38 / 10 0 0 0
WEY 7 29 10 30 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 16 36 17 40 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 17 46 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 17 43 21 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE FROM
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT. IT DID HAVE 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS IN WRN ND AT 12Z...AND 300 MB WINDS
WERE AROUND 115 KNOTS FROM SASK DOWN INTO WRN SD. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED ECHOES DROPPING SEWD ACROSS SD AND PARTS
OF NRN NE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND EVEN A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE AT SOME SPOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS. RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING ARE INTERESTING...WITH SOME 40-50 DBZ
ECHOES SHOWN. WILL MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
(TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW BY MID EVENING) THEN A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW (DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIME) AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED AREAS GETTING AROUND AN INCH.
EXPECT LOWS 25 TO 30 AND WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING.
FLURRIES COULD LINGER THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS MAY
BE AROUND 30 MPH OR HIGHER. HIGHS SHOULD BE 35 TO 40 NORTH AND 38
TO 42 SOUTH.
THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS DRY. MID
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY. STRONGER
WARMING SETS IN FOR SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN...WITH A MILD DAY ON TAP. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S...FAIRLY CLOSE TO OR ABOVE GFS MOS. DEWPOINTS AT THIS
TIME LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS DOWN...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLY LAGGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT OUR AREA
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR ABOUT
THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MODEST 850-500 MB MEAN RH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY NUMBERS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT TOO.
OTHERWISE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE
SPREADS PCPN INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN IN OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THE PCPN TYPE ACROSS
ERN NE AND SWRN IA WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW MORE
LIKELY IN OUR NRN ZONES AND RAIN MORE LIKELY SRN ZONES. AT THIS
POINT...BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS QPF VALUES ARE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER MAY BE TOO DRY. AT LEAST SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BUT HELD ONTO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THROUGH ABOUT
03Z BUT COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES. VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
AT 5SM OR MORE WITH CIGS NEAR FL025. WHEN PRECIP CHANGES TO
SNOW...EXPECT VSBYS GENERALLY AROUND 3SM...BUT COULD DROP TO IFR
BRIEFLY...AND CIGS NEAR FL015. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES BY 08Z OR SO...BUT CIGS IN THE FL015 TO
FL025 RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KT WILL BE COMMON
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS EARLIER...AND WILL DO SO AGAIN LATE MORNING.
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR TODAY ARE TIMING THE WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT METARS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS IN ERN SD THAT
IS TRYING TO MOVE SWD. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR BRING AN AREA OF HIGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC (SPECIFICALLY AROUND
925 MB) INTO MUCH OF WRN IA AND THE ERN PARTS OF ERN NE THIS AFTN.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF CLOUD COVER IS HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
AN ISOLATED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z AND SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER
MODEL RUNS. A COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY.
ANOTHER COMPACT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY HEADING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG
CIRCULATION AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING EARLY
IN EASTERN AREAS. CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERN CONUS
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHEAST CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND DURING THE PERIOD AS REGION
AGAIN COMES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
RATHER VARIABLE AND UNCERTAIN PATTERN INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. GFS MUCH
STRONGER WITH ITS WAVE ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY RESULTING IN A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE EURO.
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AT THIS TIME
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS ERN SD...PARTS OF WRN IA
AND FAR ERN NE LATE THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT
KOMA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR MVFR CEILINGS...THEN MVFR CONDS
MAY BECOME DOMINATE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING THERE. LOOK FOR
SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KOFK AND KLNK...BUT PROBABLY REMAINING
VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN BUT DECREASE
WITH GUSTS ENDING LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
915 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS EARLIER...AND WILL DO SO AGAIN LATE MORNING.
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR TODAY ARE TIMING THE WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT METARS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS IN ERN SD THAT
IS TRYING TO MOVE SWD. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR BRING AN AREA OF HIGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC (SPECIFICALLY AROUND
925 MB) INTO MUCH OF WRN IA AND THE ERN PARTS OF ERN NE THIS AFTN.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF CLOUD COVER IS HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
AN ISOLATED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z AND SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER
MODEL RUNS. A COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER COMPACT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY HEADING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW THIS FEATURE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG CIRCULATION AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING EARLY IN EASTERN AREAS.
CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERN CONUS SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARD SOUTHEAST CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND DURING THE PERIOD AS REGION
AGAIN COMES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
RATHER VARIABLE AND UNCERTAIN PATTERN INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. GFS MUCH
STRONGER WITH ITS WAVE ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY RESULTING IN A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE EURO.
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AT THIS TIME
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
KNOX...ANTELOPE AND BOONE COUNTIES IN NERN NEB INTO S-CNTRL
NEB...JUST E OF KEAR AND KHDE. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
KOFK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND KOMA AND KLNK AROUND 15Z WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE THE NW /300-310 DEGREES/ WITH ITS PASSAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING AT KOFK AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KOMA AND KLNK. SOME DETERMINISTIC HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER ERN ND COULD AFFECT KOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE THIS TO BE A LOW-
PROBABILITY OUTCOME...SO WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION WITH THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1047 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN/SNOW
AND LOW CIGS THIN OUT AT ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW
IMPACTS WILL SHIFT INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN BTWN THE CONT DVD AND THE
NORTHERN MTS THRU ABOUT 04Z. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 35-40KT. A GAP WIND IS
ALSO LIKELY AROUND KABQ BTWN 20Z-00Z WITH A BRIEF PEAK NEAR 35KT
POSSIBLE...BUT NO AWW WARRANTED YET. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
TURN SKC TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS THERE HOWEVER CANNOT PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREA JUST YET SO WILL AWAIT LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1017 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS. ABOUT 5
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AROUND LOS ALAMOS
AND WHITE ROCK. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...BUT A STREAM OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NW AREAS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING
SNOW GOING IN THE JEMEZ AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SAN JUANS
DURING THE EVENING.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
130KT JET CORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR NARA VISA AND LOGAN NWWD TO NEAR ROY AND RATON. NMDOT CAMERA
AT RATON PASS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. WILL KEEP
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. BAND OF SNOW PROGGED
TO PIVOT WWD THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO POINTS WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SANGRES...INCLUDING WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN TAOS COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND NAM12
KEEP SNOW OUT OF ABQ METRO AS EAST WINDS BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON BUT HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAND INTACT. LOOKING
AT WIND ORIENTATION AND SPEED AT 700MB (~10K FT) FROM EACH
MODEL...TOUGH TO SEE HOW THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS
ABQ. AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN OR RAIN SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SE PLAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY EACH DAY ACROSS THE WEST BUT COOL SOMEWHAT
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NE PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NE NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED
THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WLY FLOW TO MONDAY AND ECMWF
HAS LOST THE WAVE ALTOGETHER. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (ENTERING THE WEST PACIFIC) TO GET
PROLONGED CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR BEFORE THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE. LATEST 15-DAY
GFSENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE OSCILLATION MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
(PHASE8) TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. WE SHALL SEE.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS.
THE COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A NEW WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED IMPACTS FROM A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TODAY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED...OR PERHAPS EVEN CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES SO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. GENERALLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON LOW-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
TODAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-514-516-523-529-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513-515-527-528-530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1017 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS. ABOUT 5
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AROUND LOS ALAMOS
AND WHITE ROCK. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...BUT A STREAM OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NW AREAS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING
SNOW GOING IN THE JEMEZ AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SAN JUANS
DURING THE EVENING.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...453 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH RAIN THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE BELOW 4000 FEET.
A MIXED-BAG OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND AT KFMN/KGUP. MOST SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS FORECAST
AT KLVS...WHERE SHORT-LIVED LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KABQ/KAEG THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE
RUNWAYS. IMPROVEMENT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
130KT JET CORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR NARA VISA AND LOGAN NWWD TO NEAR ROY AND RATON. NMDOT CAMERA
AT RATON PASS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. WILL KEEP
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. BAND OF SNOW PROGGED
TO PIVOT WWD THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO POINTS WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SANGRES...INCLUDING WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN TAOS COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND NAM12
KEEP SNOW OUT OF ABQ METRO AS EAST WINDS BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON BUT HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAND INTACT. LOOKING
AT WIND ORIENTATION AND SPEED AT 700MB (~10K FT) FROM EACH
MODEL...TOUGH TO SEE HOW THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS
ABQ. AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN OR RAIN SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SE PLAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY EACH DAY ACROSS THE WEST BUT COOL SOMEWHAT
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NE PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NE NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED
THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WLY FLOW TO MONDAY AND ECMWF
HAS LOST THE WAVE ALTOGETHER. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (ENTERING THE WEST PACIFIC) TO GET
PROLONGED CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR BEFORE THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE. LATEST 15-DAY
GFSENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE OSCILLATION MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
(PHASE8) TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. WE SHALL SEE.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS.
THE COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A NEW WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED IMPACTS FROM A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TODAY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED...OR PERHAPS EVEN CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES SO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. GENERALLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON LOW-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
TODAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-514-516-523-529-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513-515-527-528-530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511.
&&
$$
44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
453 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH RAIN THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE BELOW 4000 FEET.
A MIXED-BAG OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND AT KFMN/KGUP. MOST SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS FORECAST
AT KLVS...WHERE SHORT-LIVED LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KABQ/KAEG THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE
RUNWAYS. IMPROVEMENT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
130KT JET CORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR NARA VISA AND LOGAN NWWD TO NEAR ROY AND RATON. NMDOT CAMERA
AT RATON PASS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. WILL KEEP
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. BAND OF SNOW PROGGED
TO PIVOT WWD THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO POINTS WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SANGRES...INCLUDING WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN TAOS COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND NAM12
KEEP SNOW OUT OF ABQ METRO AS EAST WINDS BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON BUT HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAND INTACT. LOOKING
AT WIND ORIENTATION AND SPEED AT 700MB (~10K FT) FROM EACH
MODEL...TOUGH TO SEE HOW THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS
ABQ. AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN OR RAIN SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SE PLAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY EACH DAY ACROSS THE WEST BUT COOL SOMEWHAT
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NE PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NE NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED
THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WLY FLOW TO MONDAY AND ECMWF
HAS LOST THE WAVE ALTOGETHER. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (ENTERING THE WEST PACIFIC) TO GET
PROLONGED CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR BEFORE THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE. LATEST 15-DAY
GFSENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE OSCILLATION MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
(PHASE8) TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. WE SHALL SEE.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS.
THE COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A NEW WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED IMPACTS FROM A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TODAY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED...OR PERHAPS EVEN CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES SO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. GENERALLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON LOW-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
TODAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-514-516-523-529-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513-515-527-528-530.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
130KT JET CORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR NARA VISA AND LOGAN NWWD TO NEAR ROY AND RATON. NMDOT CAMERA
AT RATON PASS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. WILL KEEP
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. BAND OF SNOW PROGGED
TO PIVOT WWD THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO POINTS WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SANGRES...INCLUDING WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN TAOS COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND NAM12
KEEP SNOW OUT OF ABQ METRO AS EAST WINDS BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON BUT HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAND INTACT. LOOKING
AT WIND ORIENTATION AND SPEED AT 700MB (~10K FT) FROM EACH
MODEL...TOUGH TO SEE HOW THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS
ABQ. AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN OR RAIN SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SE PLAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY EACH DAY ACROSS THE WEST BUT COOL SOMEWHAT
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NE PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NE NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED
THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WLY FLOW TO MONDAY AND ECMWF
HAS LOST THE WAVE ALTOGETHER. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (ENTERING THE WEST PACIFIC) TO GET
PROLONGED CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR BEFORE THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE. LATEST 15-DAY
GFSENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE OSCILLATION MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
(PHASE8) TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. WE SHALL SEE.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS.
THE COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A NEW WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED IMPACTS FROM A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TODAY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED...OR PERHAPS EVEN CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES SO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. GENERALLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON LOW-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
TODAY.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 23/18Z. STRONG CDFNT WITH NLY WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KT TO SURGE INTO NE NM WITH -SN AND BR IN MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND DEVELOPING SWD AND WWD TO THE
EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
OBSCG TERRAIN. WDLY SCT SHOWERS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS.
POTENTIAL FOR ELY GAP WIND INTO KSAF AND KABQ VCNTY BY 23/18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 48 21 51 22 / 30 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 15 43 6 / 60 30 0 0
CUBA............................ 40 19 44 15 / 60 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 44 11 52 13 / 20 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 10 48 12 / 30 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 43 12 52 14 / 30 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 16 52 17 / 5 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 55 22 58 21 / 0 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 33 9 38 9 / 60 40 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 20 45 23 / 70 40 0 0
PECOS........................... 36 15 44 18 / 70 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 11 39 11 / 60 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 25 9 34 11 / 80 20 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 -7 37 -4 / 80 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 36 10 43 14 / 50 10 0 0
MORA............................ 33 13 45 17 / 70 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 46 22 52 20 / 50 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 39 19 45 22 / 60 30 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 17 49 23 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 23 50 26 / 50 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 47 25 53 28 / 40 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 20 55 23 / 40 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 25 54 27 / 40 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 18 55 21 / 30 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 25 54 27 / 40 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 24 56 27 / 30 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 20 45 24 / 70 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 38 17 47 20 / 60 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 14 48 13 / 50 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 16 44 20 / 70 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 17 47 22 / 50 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 19 51 23 / 30 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 21 47 27 / 60 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 29 11 40 16 / 70 5 0 0
RATON........................... 33 11 45 15 / 60 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 37 15 47 17 / 60 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 16 49 18 / 70 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 36 18 50 20 / 60 5 0 0
ROY............................. 34 16 47 17 / 60 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 44 22 56 23 / 60 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 23 55 26 / 60 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 22 56 21 / 70 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 42 23 55 26 / 60 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 44 21 56 25 / 60 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 24 58 24 / 60 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 23 60 26 / 50 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 45 24 55 27 / 50 5 0 0
ELK............................. 42 22 51 25 / 50 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-514-516-529-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513-515-527-528-530.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
941 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
ONCE AGAIN THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY ADJUSTING POPS BASED
ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVED SOUTHWARD ON A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD LONGITUDE THAN EXPECTED
AND HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH BISMARCK/MANDAN SINCE ABOUT 02 UTC. A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY
RECENT RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 00 UTC NAM...SO WE STILL EXPECT
A QUICK DROP-OFF IN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. OUR FOCUS WAS ON REFINING
POPS FOR THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ND
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN PER 2345 UTC SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT MEANT
DECREASING POPS A BIT OVER WESTERN ND WHERE ASOS/AWOS TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY...AND INCREASING THEM A BIT FOR THE
BATCH OF RELATIVELY-HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE RUGBY
AND TOWNER AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SIMULATIONS DO KEY ON
THAT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TAKE THEM SOUTHWARD TOWARD STEELE
AND JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATION CENTERS MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOME WILL FALL AS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LIMITING ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON.
RATHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM OVERALL SO EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WITH MILD AIR TO THE WEST. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS 30S NORTH CENTRAL TO MID 40S.
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY 20-25...THOUGH STILL A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OUR REGION TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
A THERMAL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY. THE
WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE 40S NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE JAMES VALLEY...50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE WARM AIR ON SATURDAY IS AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COOL START TO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
MONDAY FROM THE TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 06 UTC AS
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL ND. THOSE CEILINGS WILL LIFT THURSDAY MORNING
AND WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
547 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. OUR FOCUS WAS ON REFINING
POPS FOR THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ND
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN PER 2345 UTC SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT MEANT
DECREASING POPS A BIT OVER WESTERN ND WHERE ASOS/AWOS TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY...AND INCREASING THEM A BIT FOR THE
BATCH OF RELATIVELY-HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE RUGBY
AND TOWNER AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SIMULATIONS DO KEY ON
THAT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TAKE THEM SOUTHWARD TOWARD STEELE
AND JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATION CENTERS MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOME WILL FALL AS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LIMITING ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON.
RATHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM OVERALL SO EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WITH MILD AIR TO THE WEST. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS 30S NORTH CENTRAL TO MID 40S.
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY 20-25...THOUGH STILL A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OUR REGION TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
A THERMAL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY. THE
WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE 40S NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE JAMES VALLEY...50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE WARM AIR ON SATURDAY IS AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COOL START TO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
MONDAY FROM THE TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL COVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BRIEFLY REDUCED /MVFR TO IFR/ VISIBILITIES TOO. THIS IS ALL DUE
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. AS THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER 06 UTC...AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
249 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTH OF DULUTH AT MID AFTN. SNOW HAS EXITED THE EASTERN
FCST AREA AFTER A NARROW AREA OF 6 INCH SNOWFALL NR ROSEAU-
WARROAD-LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. SOME DRYING NOTED COMING SOUTH
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER AND DRYING IS FCST VIA HRRR TO MOVE INTO
NW MN THIS EVENING. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL BE
HOWEVER. CLOUD BAND LOCATED IN ERN ND NORTH INTO PARTS OF MANITOBA
BTWN BRANDON AND WINNIPEG AND THIS CLOUD AREA IS MOVING SOUTH AND
MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ERN ND FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING. SO AT
FIRST SKY COVER TONIGHT MAY BE RATHER CHAOTIC. NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BUT ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
NEXT SHORT WAVE PRETTY WELL DEFINED MOVING INTO ECNTRL ALBERTA.
NO PRECIP YET NOTED WITH SYSTEM VIA OBS OR CANADIAN RADAR. BUT
THIS UPPER SYSTEM DOES STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
CNTRL ND 18Z-21Z PERIOD THEN INTO ERN SD WED EVENING. WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS WITH THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS IN AREA OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7 TO 7.5C/KM 700-500 MB)...CONCERN AGAIN
WILL THIS OCCUR AGAIN. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND DOES APPEAR MAIN
RISK IS CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD BRUSHING SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS
IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHC OF 1 INCH OF SNOW (JMS-ABR-ATY
REGION).
DID INCREASE POPS WED 12-18Z IN WRN FCST AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO
RRV WED AFTN/NIGHT. FAR ERN FCST AREA ON THE EDGE WITH SYSTEM AS
BEST AREAS FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
LIKELY A BIT UNDERDONE SO WENT A TAD HIGHER. BUT IF FULL SUN COULD
BE EVEN HIGHER.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SATURDAY
COULD EVEN BE WARMER THAN THE BLENDED SOLUTION HIGHS IF WE GET
SOME SUN OVER OUR NO SNOW AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PHASED AND
AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BRINGING DOWN A
STRONGER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. CONSIDERING THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE MUCH WARMER AND MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
WARMER BLENDED SOLUTION AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH. THINK THAT ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...LEAVING VIS MORE THAN 6SM AT ALL TAF SITES. THE IFR AND MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WILL
WATCH KDVL IN CASE THE CLEARING LINE GETS CLOSER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE SOME 3-5SM BR FORMING AT SOME SITES. THE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WRAP-AROUND
FLOW BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA. WITH THE FRONT
GONE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT...AND
WE ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
REGIME.
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...SO
HAVE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE COOLS.
INITIALLY ON THIS EVENING SHIFT...THOUGHT THE HRRR WAS COOLING
TOO QUICKLY...SO RELIED MORE ON A CONSENSUS/LAMP BLEND FOR HOURLY
TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS EVENING THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY BEEN A BIT
BETTER TO OUR WEST...WHERE SNOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FALL IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...SO RECONFIGURED HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BY BLENDING IN MORE HRRR. GENERALLY TEMPS ARE SLOW TO
DROP TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL REBOUND THURSDAY. THIS
ALLOWS SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO NEGATE MUCH IF NOT ALL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE
INCOMING RADIATION IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTHWEST...INTO SE OHIO...COULD START TO GET A COATING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD IS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850MB TEMPS COOL TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. HAVE AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING SOME THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
A BIT MORE STABLE...BUT STILL A RATHER BREEZY STRETCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AND THE FOLLOWING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MOIST SHORT WAVE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE COLD ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE COMBINE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEPT SNOW ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN MUCH OF
THE LOW LANDS DUE TO WARMER GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE
CONSIDERATIONS. UP TO A FEW INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST DURING FRIDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEINGS SUNSHINE
SATURDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS WILL
RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS TO AROUND 6
INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND STILL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY DESPITE A MODEST WARMING
TREND WITH SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.
CLIPPER ARRIVES SUN EVENING INTO MON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PLACEMENT OF THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE. BRIEF
DRY PERIOD TO FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS...INCLUDING
SOME FROZEN PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS...ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE A 500 MB WAVE CROSSES THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTING A LARGE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID OHIO VALLEY. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...RAPIDLY DEVELOPS A DEEP...SLOWER-MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE PARTICULAR TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 12Z RUN SEEMS SUSPECT...SO WILL
NOT RELY HEAVILY ON THAT SOLUTION UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
YIELDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MORE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO OUR
AREA...SO SKY/POP/WEATHER GRIDS MORE REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.
TEMPS FOLLOW A MIX OF CONSENSUS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND. EXPECT
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE BY THU/DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE LOW HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS WE SAW EARLIER TODAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES SHOULD WE DECOUPLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.
STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING TO THE NE AS OF
00Z...BUT DID LINGER SOME VCTS AT CKB AND EKN. OTHERWISE...WE
TRANSITION TO A WRAP-AROUND PATTERN TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SPELL LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS...CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN GENERAL HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN
VIS AND CIG STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LAV GUIDANCE TRYING TO IFR ON CIGS...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE
NOT AS EXCITED SO HELD OFF ON THAT AT TAF SITES. IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE UP AND DOWN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IN BACKLASH OF STORM...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN WEST
VIRGINIA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
335 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTS FROM TN TO UPPER OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE...SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO LOW STATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EVENT WILL START
WITH RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
STRONG WINDS ARE SUGGESTED BY NAM AND RAP WITH 40-45 KNOTS AT
H925. MOST PART OF THE PRECIP WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WHILE
OTHERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT THAT COULD BE CONVECTIVE WITH
EVEN THUNDER INCLUDED.
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS PRODUCED HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WHERE TERRAIN STILL NEARLY SATURATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGEST NEARLY 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS. THIS WILL BE A PROLONG EVENT. PONDING OF WATER
ACROSS LOW LAYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE COMMON ON
WEDNESDAY.
USED A MULTIPLE MODEL BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FROM A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE IS RATHER SLOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WHILE THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY TO TRANSITION.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO PULL OUT BEFORE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS CAN OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS HIGH PRESSURE-DOMINANT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE A
QUICK HITTER WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. EXPECTING ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR
THE END...WHEN THE SHOWERS COULD TURN INTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE EXIT OF THE
MOISTURE.
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGS A COLORADO LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA
CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT BKW COULD LAST THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. MVFR LOW
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT SOME PLACES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS AROUND 60-65 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG STRONGEST RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY AND CEILING MAY GO LOWER AT BECKLEY IN
THE LIGHT RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M L M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES TODAY. A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTS FROM TN TO UPPER OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE...SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO LOW STATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EVENT WILL START
WITH RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
STRONG WINDS ARE SUGGESTED BY NAM AND RAP WITH 40-45 KNOTS AT
H925. MOST PART OF THE PRECIP WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WHILE
OTHERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT THAT COULD BE CONVECTIVE WITH
EVEN THUNDER INCLUDED.
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS PRODUCED HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WHERE TERRAIN STILL NEARLY SATURATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGEST NEARLY 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS. THIS WILL BE A PROLONG EVENT. PONDING OF WATER
ACROSS LOW LAYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE COMMON ON
WEDNESDAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THERE IS ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
CERTAINLY AN UNDERSTATEMENT. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT
MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DID LOWER
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS A BIT WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING LIKELY KEEPING RAINFALL TOTALS
LIMITED IN THOSE AREAS.
WE WILL LIKELY BE FACED WITH SEVERAL HAZARDS FROM FLOODING TO
HIGH WINDS TO EVEN WINTER WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND
COLD AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SHOULD KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG
LLJ. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LOWER
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE WEST VA LOWLANDS. HAVE HELD OFF IN
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
HWO...BUT IF THERE IS FLOODING IT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SATURATED SOILS COMBINED WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES.
AS MENTIONED...SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA WIDE ADVISORY WITH A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY. VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THERMAL PACKING WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT THIS
POINT...HAVE GENERALLY ARE FORECASTING 4 - 6 INCHES IN EASTERN
ZONES AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. WINTER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU ADD IN THE STRONG WINDS...BLOWING
SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL A CHALLENGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS HIGH PRESSURE-DOMINANT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE A
QUICK HITTER WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. EXPECTING ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR
THE END...WHEN THE SHOWERS COULD TURN INTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE EXIT OF THE
MOISTURE.
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGS A COLORADO LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA
CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT BKW COULD LAST THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. MVFR LOW
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT SOME PLACES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS AROUND 60-65 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG STRONGEST RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY AND CEILING MAY GO LOWER AT BECKLEY IN
THE LIGHT RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES TODAY. A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTS FROM TN TO UPPER OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE...SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO LOW STATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EVENT WILL START
WITH RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
STRONG WINDS ARE SUGGESTED BY NAM AND RAP WITH 40-45 KNOTS AT
H925. MOST PART OF THE PRECIP WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WHILE
OTHERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT THAT COULD BE CONVECTIVE WITH
EVEN THUNDER INCLUDED.
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS PRODUCED HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WHERE TERRAIN STILL NEARLY SATURATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGEST NEARLY 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS. THIS WILL BE A PROLONG EVENT. PONDING OF WATER
ACROSS LOW LAYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE COMMON ON
WEDNESDAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THERE IS ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
CERTAINLY AN UNDERSTATEMENT. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT
MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DID LOWER
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS A BIT WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING LIKELY KEEPING RAINFALL TOTALS
LIMITED IN THOSE AREAS.
WE WILL LIKELY BE FACED WITH SEVERAL HAZARDS FROM FLOODING TO
HIGH WINDS TO EVEN WINTER WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND
COLD AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SHOULD KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG
LLJ. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LOWER
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE WEST VA LOWLANDS. HAVE HELD OFF IN
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
HWO...BUT IF THERE IS FLOODING IT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SATURATED SOILS COMBINED WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES.
AS MENTIONED...SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA WIDE ADVISORY WITH A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY. VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THERMAL PACKING WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT THIS
POINT...HAVE GENERALLY ARE FORECASTING 4 - 6 INCHES IN EASTERN
ZONES AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. WINTER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU ADD IN THE STRONG WINDS...BLOWING
SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL A CHALLENGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE KEPT THE SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR THURSDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
SHOWING AMPLE LIFT/RH INTO PART OF THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO VARIOUS SPOKES OF ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF WITH SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT. SOME COATINGS
ARE ENVISIONED OVER THE LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION CODED UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS THE WIND POTENTIAL. A STOUT 50 KT LLJ WILL ROTATE
THRU AND WITH A FAVORABLE CROSS FLOW AMID A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THINKING GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY FRIDAY BUT STILL LOOKING QUITE A
BIT OF STRATOCU AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DAY AND NIGHT. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
TAKING HOLD. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT BKW COULD LAST THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. MVFR LOW
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT SOME PLACES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS AROUND 60-65 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG STRONGEST RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY AND CEILING MAY GO LOWER AT BECKLEY IN
THE LIGHT RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1144 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN IS
SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY COUNTIES TOWARD
THE POCONOS. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS MIXING WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET AND A LIGHT DUSTING COULD OCCUR OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE CHANGE TO RAIN... WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH
IN SULLIVAN COUNTY POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST
EXPECTING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE STILL SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BRADFORD AND
WARREN... BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40... BUT MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SFC LOW NEAR THE TX/LA COAST...WARM ADVECTION/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE RETREATING COLD SECTOR TODAY. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81/US-15 CORRIDOR PER
THE LATEST HRRR. COMPLEX BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS IN PLAY ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIXED PTYPES. THERE IS A
LOWER DEGREE OF CERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL
BE...WITH THE VERY NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE
ALREADY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIRES HRRR/NCAR/SSEO FOR SNOW/ICE
AMTS WHICH POINTED TOWARD A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION /AROUND 1
INCH MAX/ OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AND THIN
ICE GLAZE /LESS THAN 0.10 INCH/ PSBL INTO THE N-CENTRAL/ENDLESS
MTNS. HIGHER SNOW/ICE AMTS PROJECTED INTO THE POCONOS/NERN PA WHERE
PHI/BGM HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY.
A STRONG 850MB LLJ WILL BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT
WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN/FZDZ WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THE
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN MAY SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THE POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. MDL
TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 32F AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM WRN TN THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY ON DAY 2/WED...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. AFTER
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PCPN...EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PICK
UP WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD INCREASE TO
50+KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO WRN NY
AND TRANSPORT HI PWATS INTO CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY /MAINLY ELEVATED/ WHICH MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS BTWN 24/18Z AND 25/06Z. THE HIGH MSTR CONTENT AIR ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/SHORT-DURATION HEAVY
RAIN RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW 3HR FFG VALUES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL NOTE THIS IN HWO. WPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN ITS DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK. FOLLOWED WPC QPF
AMTS WHICH WERE BASED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z EC/NAM SOLUTIONS
AND SHOW WIDESPREAD 1+INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
TRACKING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD AFFORD A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMS ON DAY 3. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURS NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR LATER FRIDAY AND PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
COLDER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TO
CONTINUE DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM
PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HRRR AND SREF INDICATE IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLNS BY THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SREF OUTPUT A SUPPORT A
LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CONDS AT KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KJST BY THIS EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SPOTTY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON...TUE
EVENING. TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL
PERIOD OF LGT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA OR PATCHY -FZDZ OVR THE
HIGH TERRAIN ARND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. WINDY LATE.
THU...BECOMING WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SFC LOW NEAR THE TX/LA COAST...WARM ADVECTION/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE RETREATING COLD SECTOR TODAY. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81/US-15 CORRIDOR PER
THE LATEST HRRR. COMPLEX BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS IN PLAY ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIXED PTYPES. THERE IS A
LOWER DEGREE OF CERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL
BE...WITH THE VERY NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE
ALREADY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIRES HRRR/NCAR/SSEO FOR SNOW/ICE
AMTS WHICH POINTED TOWARD A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION /AROUND 1
INCH MAX/ OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AND THIN
ICE GLAZE /LESS THAN 0.10 INCH/ PSBL INTO THE N-CENTRAL/ENDLESS
MTNS. HIGHER SNOW/ICE AMTS PROJECTED INTO THE POCONOS/NERN PA WHERE
PHI/BGM HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY.
A STRONG 850MB LLJ WILL BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT
WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN/FZDZ WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THE
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN MAY SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THE POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. MDL
TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 32F AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM WRN TN THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY ON DAY 2/WED...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. AFTER
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PCPN...EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PICK
UP WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD INCREASE TO
50+KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO WRN NY
AND TRANSPORT HI PWATS INTO CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY /MAINLY ELEVATED/ WHICH MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS BTWN 24/18Z AND 25/06Z. THE HIGH MSTR CONTENT AIR ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/SHORT-DURATION HEAVY
RAIN RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW 3HR FFG VALUES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL NOTE THIS IN HWO. WPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN ITS DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK. FOLLOWED WPC QPF
AMTS WHICH WERE BASED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z EC/NAM SOLUTIONS
AND SHOW WIDESPREAD 1+INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
TRACKING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD AFFORD A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMS ON DAY 3. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURS NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR LATER FRIDAY AND PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
COLDER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TO
CONTINUE DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM
PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HRRR AND SREF INDICATE IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLNS BY THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SREF OUTPUT A SUPPORT A
LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CONDS AT KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KJST BY THIS EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SPOTTY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON...TUE
EVENING. TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL
PERIOD OF LGT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA OR PATCHY -FZDZ OVR THE
HIGH TERRAIN ARND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. WINDY LATE.
THU...BECOMING WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
543 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SFC LOW NEAR THE TX/LA COAST...WARM ADVECTION/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE RETREATING COLD SECTOR TODAY. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81/US-15 CORRIDOR PER
THE LATEST HRRR. COMPLEX BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS IN PLAY ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIXED PTYPES. THERE IS A
LOWER DEGREE OF CERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL
BE...WITH THE VERY NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE
ALREADY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIRES HRRR/NCAR/SSEO FOR SNOW/ICE
AMTS WHICH POINTED TOWARD A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION /AROUND 1
INCH MAX/ OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AND THIN
ICE GLAZE /LESS THAN 0.10 INCH/ PSBL INTO THE N-CENTRAL/ENDLESS
MTNS. HIGHER SNOW/ICE AMTS PROJECTED INTO THE POCONOS/NERN PA WHERE
PHI/BGM HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY.
A STRONG 850MB LLJ WILL BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT
WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN/FZDZ WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THE
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN MAY SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THE POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. MDL
TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 32F AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM WRN TN THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY ON DAY 2/WED...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. AFTER
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PCPN...EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PICK
UP WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD INCREASE TO
50+KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO WRN NY
AND TRANSPORT HI PWATS INTO CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY /MAINLY ELEVATED/ WHICH MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS BTWN 24/18Z AND 25/06Z. THE HIGH MSTR CONTENT AIR ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/SHORT-DURATION HEAVY
RAIN RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW 3HR FFG VALUES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL NOTE THIS IN HWO. WPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN ITS DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK. FOLLOWED WPC QPF
AMTS WHICH WERE BASED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z EC/NAM SOLUTIONS
AND SHOW WIDESPREAD 1+INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
TRACKING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD AFFORD A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMS ON DAY 3. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURS NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR LATER FRIDAY AND PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
COLDER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL SPREAD
LOWERING CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
TUESDAY. LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS KJST STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MVFR CIGS REDUCTIONS JUST BEFORE DAWN...WITH LITTLE CHC
ELSEWHERE.
WEAK LOW PRES PASSING EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL LIKELY GRAZE SE
PA WITH A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF TUESDAY.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW BTWN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CIGS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY. LATEST HRRR AND SREF INDICATE
IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLNS BY LATE AM. ELSEWHERE...SREF OUTPUT AND
18Z MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CONDS AT
KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KJST BY TUE AFTN...AND KBFD/KIPT BY TUE EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SPOTTY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE EVENING.
TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA OR -FZDZ OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN ARND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. WINDY LATE.
THU...BECOMING WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
103 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE LATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS THICKENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF CENTRAL PA. LLVL WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST OF
NRN VA WITH OVC030-040 INCREASING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT THIS TO CREEP NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LEADING
TO PATCHY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING IN SPOTS AS VERY LIGHT
AND PATCHY PRECIP TRIES TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS IS INITIALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT -DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FZDZ
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 12Z...BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SO RAPIDLY
AT PRESENT AND TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING (KTHV IS
CURRENTLY THE EXCEPTION AT 29F AS CLOUDS ROLL IN) NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE GROUND TEMPS ARE
LIKELY WARM DUE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF SUN. NRN COS WILL EASILY
GET BELOW FZG AGAIN WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART. SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ON THE NY BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY
HOLD SOME FZDZ...BUT ANY SLIGHT WARMING IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS
SHOULD DISPENSE WITH THAT THREAT - FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. THE WEAK
FORCING AND ISOTHERMAL PROFILE NEAR TO JUST BELOW FZG COULD MEAN
ANYTHING FROM DZ TO SN COULD FALL OUT OF THE SHALLOW CLOUDS. IN
ANY CASE...IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIP.
A DECENTLY FORMED BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE NC COAST
WILL LIFT NWRD ALONG THE COAST ON TUES. IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON TUES. THE CLOUDS
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA MAY STILL HOLD SOME DZ...BUT A VERY LOW
POP IS ALL THAT IS NECESSARY FOR THE DAYTIME AWAY FROM THE LOWER
SUSQ. THE WAVE SEEMS TO TAKE ANY SLIGHTLY-SERIOUS RAIN OFF TO THE
EAST IN MID-AFTN. THEN WE WILL SIT IN THE LULL BETWEEN THE FIRST
LOW AND THE BEST FORCING OF THE LARGE STORM HEADED NORTH FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN STORM
WILL ADVANCE IN FROM THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE ON WED. BUT BEFORE IT
GETS INTO PA...THE TEMPS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW FZG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A GREATER THREAT OF FZRA/DZ EXISTS
ON TUES NIGHT THAN MON NIGHT...AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY
ADVYS FOR THAT TIME FRAME...AND THE POSS OF FZDZ LATE TONIGHT
CERTAINLY PRECLUDES ANY ADVY TALK FOR TUES NIGHT. WILL NUDGE POPS
INTO THE HIGH-CHC CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUES NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUES OVER TEXAS
AS DIGGING TROUGH INITIATES A SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW
WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ACROSS TENNESSEE...REACHING W PA AS A 985MB LOW WED
EVE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 530DAM H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW...BEFORE
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY.
NO BIG SURPRISES IN THE 12Z MODELS...KEEPING THE FORECAST
BASICALLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH AGAIN KEEPING
WITH A TREND OF JUST A TOUCH WARMER AGAIN WITH LATEST RUN. AFTER
A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP TUE NIGHT /AND POSS WED
MORNING OVER THE NORTH/...WARMER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE. HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE MORNING WILL
BE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WED AFT AND EVE WHEN THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVIEST...COINCIDING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. APPEARS THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN PRECIP OVER THE EAST DURING THAT TIME
/THOUGH A BIT OF THUNDER IS DEF POSSIBLE/...SO SHAVED A BIT OFF OF
THE WPC QPF NUMBERS RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE STORM TOTAL QPFS
OF AROUND 1.00-1.50.
SIG PRECIP WILL CUT OFF UPON ARRIVAL OF PRETTY DECENT DRY SLOT BY
THU FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST...LIGHT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WEST AND JUST TAPER OFF AS RAIN OVER
THE SE WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.
ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW...NW FLOW LINES UP FOR A 12-18HR PERIOD
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A POTENTIAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMS IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT LOCALES.
COLD /BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD/ AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FRI-SAT AMID NW
FLOW. A BLOB OF ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAGGED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GLAKES BY SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
FAST FLOW...NUDGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD PA. BRUNT OF COLDER AIR
REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT THIS REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDNESS WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
COULD BRING A LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL SPREAD
LOWERING CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
TUESDAY. LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS KJST STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MVFR CIGS REDUCTIONS JUST BEFORE DAWN...WITH LITTLE CHC
ELSEWHERE.
WEAK LOW PRES PASSING EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL LIKELY GRAZE SE
PA WITH A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF TUESDAY.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW BTWN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CIGS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY. LATEST HRRR AND SREF INDICATE
IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLNS BY LATE AM. ELSEWHERE...SREF OUTPUT AND
18Z MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CONDS AT
KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KJST BY TUE AFTN...AND KBFD/KIPT BY TUE EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SPOTTY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE EVENING.
TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA OR -FZDZ OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN ARND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. WINDY LATE.
THU...BECOMING WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSH/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1157 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. AHEAD OF THIS LINE CIGS HAVE
DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP CIGS TO IFR AND MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15G25 KTS AND THEN TO 25G35 KTS BY
AROUND 18Z. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING LATE EVENING TUESDAY.
AT DRT CIGS ARE MVFR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 10Z AND INCREASE
BY 18Z. WINDS OF 25G35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING DECREASING BY 03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORM ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE TO
THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. ALSO...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
UPDATE...
THE FIRST SET OF STRONG STORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT NOT NIL. SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...A LINE OF STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A BOWING LINE. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM...BETWEEN 5
AND 6 AM ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT AND AROUND NOON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4+
INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL
CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS
AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE
INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY
EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z
OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90.
ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT
NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS
LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL
FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 41 64 39 / 100 70 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 66 42 65 35 / 100 70 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 43 66 36 / 100 50 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 59 40 62 36 / 100 60 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 70 42 67 36 / 80 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 41 63 36 / 100 70 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 41 67 32 / 100 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 43 65 36 / 100 60 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 69 45 64 37 / 90 70 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 71 44 66 36 / 100 40 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 44 68 36 / 90 30 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER C TX ON TRACK
WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS AND WRF ARW/NMM RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS WELL. MAIN CHANGES TO TAFS WERE TO SPEED UP TIMING OF TSRA BY
AN HOUR IN MOST CASES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HUNG ALONG THE COAST MAY
START TO PUSH NORTH AS WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE SE AT LBX/GLS. MAY
SEE VSBY BECOME RESTRICTED AND MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. HAVE TSRA ENDING AT 18Z BUT COULD END AN HOUR
OR TWO SOONER. WIND GUSTS WILL BE MAIN ISSUE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
AS CIGS IMPROVE. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST WHERE GLS COULD HAVE GUSTS OF 40KTS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR COLORADO...JACKSON...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES EFFECTIVE UNTIL 4 AM.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS POSSIBLY STARTED DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT
MID EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS FORMING IN WEST TEXAS MOVES
TOWARD SE TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
TO FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCATION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP DICTATE THE TREK OF THE SURFACE LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE ARW AND NAM12 ARE
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. THE HRRR
AND RAP13 ARE A BIT FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6
AM AND THEN MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS ISOLATED TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREAS TRAVEL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ALTHOUGH THE RAP13 WAS
FORECASTING A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL.
FOR NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE AVIATION/MARINE SIDE
TWEAKED THE WINDS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION...CALM BEFORE THE STORM. BUSY TAF PACKAGE AS
PATTERN GETS ACTIVE WITH TSRA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET OVER THE S
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT SE TX TERMINALS FROM AS EARLY
AS 10Z THROUGH 18Z TUE.
EXPECT CIGS TO DEVELOP AND LOWER AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN W TX FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
MAY SEE SOME RESTRICTED VSBY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS FROM 06-12Z. LEANED MORE ON WRF-ARW/NMM FOR POSSIBLE
SQUALL LINE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA 12-16Z. TX TECH 3KM WRF HAS
THIS LINE OF STORMS ABOUT 2-3HRS EARLIER SO WILL MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE IF AN EARLIER TIMING MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT LOW
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS WITH TSRA SO WILL KEEP IFR CIGS AS
STORMS MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS.
CIGS IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS NW WINDS DEVELOP. EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 63 43 61 38 / 90 80 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 69 46 62 40 / 60 80 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 70 49 62 48 / 40 60 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORM ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE TO
THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. ALSO...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
UPDATE...
THE FIRST SET OF STRONG STORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT NOT NIL. SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...A LINE OF STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A BOWING LINE. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM...BETWEEN 5
AND 6 AM ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT AND AROUND NOON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4+
INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
AVIATION...
SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW FORMS OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. CIGS LOWER TO
IFR AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE TRANS PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SOME GS/GR
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
HAVE LEFT OUT GS/GR FROM THE TAFS AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z AT KDRT AND BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGS THE
SURFACE LOW BY A FEW HOURS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WRAP AROUND SCT-BKN
MVFR LAYER STRATUS AND ISOLD SHRA MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KAUS.
HAVE LEFT SHRA OUT AS PROBS ARE LOW WITH BEST CHANCES AT KAUS.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE MIXING UP TO 50 KT WINDS
ALOFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT NWLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 24 TO 34 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KTS OR SO MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. OCNL CROSSWIND ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AT KAUS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL
CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS
AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE
INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY
EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z
OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90.
ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT
NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS
LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL
FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 41 64 39 / 100 70 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 66 42 65 35 / 100 70 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 43 66 36 / 100 50 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 59 40 62 36 / 100 60 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 70 42 67 36 / 80 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 41 63 36 / 100 70 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 41 67 32 / 100 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 43 65 36 / 100 60 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 69 45 64 37 / 90 70 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 71 44 66 36 / 100 40 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 44 68 36 / 90 30 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER THE
GULF COAST. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES NORTH.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE SHEARED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNTIL IT DOES SO...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND COULD CLIP THE SHORELINE
AROUND MANITOWOC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN VILAS CO. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY. SOME GUSTS TO
30 OR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND THE FOX
VALLEY. CONTINUED MILD TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE WEEKEND FORECAST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUM
SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH RESPECT TO THE EFFECTS OF
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDS/WEDS NGT. STILL ONLY EXPECTING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN EC WI ON WEDS/WEDS NGT...AND GALES ON LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM...SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
VILAS COUNTY THU/THU NGT.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
+2 TO +6 C ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GET WELL
INTO THE 40S IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
50 DEGREES AT THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRACK TAKING IT THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
IN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
LOW. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH COUPLED UPPER
JETS AND SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BEFORE THIS FRONT
ARRIVES...CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR OVER
NORTHEAST WI BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI AFTER 21Z AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINOR...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. DESPITE ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED...CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NNE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BECOME GUSTY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1012 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY OF GREEN BAY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AROUND
THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
FEATURES...AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND FAR NE WI WILL
HOVER OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST.
OTHER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL EXIST OVER FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE
EVENING...BEFORE THIS TOO EXITS EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS FROM EITHER FEATURE...PERHAPS JUST A DUSTING. THEN AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT...A RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM LEAVES ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. IF SKIES DO CLEAR FOR A PERIOD...TEMPS HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE MORNING AND COULD SEE THE PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND N-C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY THE START OF THE EVENING. MILD FEBRUARY
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND HOW SIGNIFICANT THE PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ONLY MINOR PCPN CHANCES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI WITH A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A GLANCING BLOW IN EAST CENTRAL WI FROM THE
LARGE OHIO VALLEY STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN VILAS COUNTY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CIPS ANALOGS
SHOWED A 70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW OVER VILAS
COUNTY...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT STALL IT OVER ILLINOIS AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RIDES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PREVENTS A BIG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION...AND ALSO PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOWSTORM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE PATTERN
HOLDS...THERE WOULD PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH THE RRQ OF A STRONG
UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SUSPECT IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WE GET A DECENT HANDLE ON THE FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
WIDE RANGE OF CIGS ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT
AREA OF IFR CIGS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING HAS
EXPANDED THE LAST FEW HOURS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
WAS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AND FINALLY MAINLY VFR CIGS
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WERE NOTED. ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
147 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH
BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM FOR
EASTERN LI AND SRN CONNECTICUT EAST OF BRIDGEPORT. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
LINE OF STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CT
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LI...IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET WITH 925 MB WINDS OF 70 TO 80 KT. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS LI AND CT EAST OF BRIDGEPORT. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY...MAINLY
ACROSS LI AND COASTAL CT.
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING EAST OF LONG
ISLAND/CONNECTICUT BY 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS/IFR/LLWS EAST OF CITY TERMINALS EXIT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR OTHERWISE INTO THE MORNING PUSH...THEN VFR BY
LATE MORNING. WINDS BCMG SW WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. CHC -SHRA IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH OVER KSWF TO INCLUDE IN
TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.
SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.
THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ070>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
115 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...NRN NJ...AND NYC. THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
LINE OF STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CT
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LI...IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET WITH 925 MB WINDS OF 70 TO 80 KT. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS LI AND CT EAST OF BRIDGEPORT. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY...MAINLY
ACROSS LI AND COASTAL CT.
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING EAST OF LONG
ISLAND/CONNECTICUT BY 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS/IFR/LLWS EAST OF CITY TERMINALS EXIT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR OTHERWISE INTO THE MORNING PUSH...THEN VFR BY
LATE MORNING. WINDS BCMG SW WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. CHC -SHRA IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH OVER KSWF TO INCLUDE IN
TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.
SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.
THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ070>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
106 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING VERY MILD
LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1159 PM EST...ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS A LINE OF STORMS HAVE
DEMONSTRATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO TAP INTO
A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE OFFICE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.
NO REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE YET...BUT THIS IS ONGOING.
WE CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GREENS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WIND GUSTS AT
BENNINGTON HAD REACHED NEARLY 60 MPH AS THEY WERE FIRMLY IN THE WARM
AIR SECTOR. MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS WERE IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR...OR
WILL BE VERY SOON. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 AM. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD SHOULD HAVE MOVED ENTIRELY OUT
OF OUR REGION.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WORKING INTO THE REGION...INCLUDING SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE. A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA.
UPDATE ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THE FAST ON GOING HOUR CHANGES.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO WORK NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND GUST
UP TO 35-40 MPH...PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
SW NEW YORK STATE...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM PASSING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850
HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4
STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NOW
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE
THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP
PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN
PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP
TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S...50S...AND LOWER 60S WHICH
WOULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL AHEAD OF THE STORM/S COLD FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 400 AM
WHICH DIRECTLY IMPACTS KPSF. A LINE OF STORMS WAS WORKING
NEAR THAT TAF. ALSO...WE ISSUED A SYNOPTIC HIGH WIND WARNING
WHICH IMPACTS THAT TAF SITE AS WELL.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE OTHER TAFS
(KALB/KPOU/KGF). HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN PA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NY STATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS LINE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWERS.
THERE WILL OCCASIONALLY BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF
WHERE GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50KTS FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40KTS FROM THE SOUTH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) UNTIL LATER OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR VARIABLE CONDITIONS...MAINLY FROM IFR TO MVFR
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...DUE TO VARYING
CIGS AND REDUCTION IN SHOWERS.
THE WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MORNING PEAK.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE TO OUR EAST...BUT INSTABILITY
POP UP LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (VCSH) THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT
LINGERING MVFR AT KPSF UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON DUE TO UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
IT LOOKS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE WINDY BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STORM AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED FLOOD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AS CONVECTIVE TORRENTIAL RAIN...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...
HAS LEAD TO MINOR TO EVEN MODERATE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.
THESE PROBLEMS INCLUDED BASEMENT FLOODING AND SOME ROAD WASHOUTS.
SEE OUR LSR REPORTS FOR ALL THE LATEST DETAILS.
RAINFALL HAS AVERAGE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES HAVE APPROACHED A HALF INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOODING WAS
BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OUR REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT...COULD REACH OUR AREA
AFTER 200 AM...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ALSO HAVE ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME RIVER
POINTS...MOSTLY MINOR FLOOD STAGES. PLEASE REFER TO OUR FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR ALL THE LATEST ON THESE.
THE STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO CANADA BY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK BACK IN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL TO MOVE
THROUGH...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND SHOULD NOT
REALLY ADD TO HYDRO PROBLEMS.
IT WILL TURN COLDER TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
RUNOFF TO SLOW DOWN QUITE A BIT.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ043-
054-061-084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1159 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING VERY MILD
LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1159 PM EST...ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS A LINE OF STORMS HAVE
DEMONSTRATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO TAP INTO
A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE OFFICE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.
NO REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE YET...BUT THIS IS ONGOING.
WE CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GREENS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WIND GUSTS AT
BENNINGTON HAD REACHED NEARLY 60 MPH AS THEY WERE FIRMLY IN THE WARM
AIR SECTOR. MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS WERE IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR...OR
WILL BE VERY SOON. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 AM. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD SHOULD HAVE MOVED ENTIRELY OUT
OF OUR REGION.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WORKING INTO THE REGION...INCLUDING SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE. A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA.
UPDATE ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THE FAST ON GOING HOUR CHANGES.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO WORK NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND GUST
UP TO 35-40 MPH...PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
SW NEW YORK STATE...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM PASSING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850
HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4
STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NOW
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE
THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP
PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN
PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP
TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S...50S...AND LOWER 60S WHICH
WOULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL AHEAD OF THE STORM/S COLD FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z-06Z/THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS PASSES THROUGH.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/LIFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...THEN MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBYS...WITH
VFR TO MVFR CIGS...ESP AT KPSF.
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. THEN...AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT 8-12 KT...THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...SINCE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N/NE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ043-054-061-
084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1120 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING VERY MILD
LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1120 AM EST...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE GREENS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TACONICS. WIND GUSTS AT BENNINGTON HAD REACHED NEARLY 60 MPH AS THEY
WERE FIRMLY IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR. MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS WERE
IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR...OR WILL BE VERY SOON. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 600 AM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD SHOULD HAVE MOVED
ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR REGION.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WORKING INTO THE REGION...INCLUDING SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR AREA.
UPDATE ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THE FAST ON GOING HOUR CHANGES.
LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO WORK NORTH AND WEST INTO MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND GUST
UP TO 35-40 MPH...PERHAPS HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
SW NEW YORK STATE...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE AREA
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
WITH THIS STORM PASSING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850
HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4
STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...A BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT
WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NOW
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE
THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP
PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN
PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP
TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S...50S...AND LOWER 60S WHICH
WOULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL AHEAD OF THE STORM/S COLD FRONT. A GENERAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR
HSA.
THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING
TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE
DONE BY THAT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL
BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S
/TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND
INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES
EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z-06Z/THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS PASSES THROUGH.
ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/LIFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...THEN MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBYS...WITH
VFR TO MVFR CIGS...ESP AT KPSF.
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT. THEN...AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT 8-12 KT...THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...SINCE
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE N/NE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS
FROZEN.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER
MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ043-054-061-
084.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1118 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH S-SE WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 35 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. ALSO EXPECT SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE
HEAVY RAINFALL.
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING EAST OF NYC BY
06Z...AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND/CONNECTICUT BY 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY IFR WITH RAIN. LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CITY
TERMINALS 04-05Z. CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT MAKE IT TO KBDR AND KISP.
GUSTS IN TSTMS COULD BE OVER 55KT. GUSTS AHEAD OF THE TSTM LINE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 40-45KT. LLWS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH
WINDS 60-70KT AT 1500FT. IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY... VFR WITH SW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.
SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.
THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ070>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1235 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADS WILL
BE SNOW COVERED SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY MAKE TRAVEL
IMPOSSIBLE ON SOME ROADS. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WX HEADLINES PLANNED FOR THIS
EVENING. BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF OUR
CWA TIL 03Z WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND TRANSITION TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THAT TIME. HEAVIEST OF SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE
ENDED WITH GENERALLY JUST LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN THE LARGE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER OUR AREA AND UPSTREAM ATTM. HOWEVER WITH 3-7
INCHES ALREADY DOWN ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND NWLY GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP... HAZARDS
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING GOING. SERN CWA IN
HAS ALL TRANSITIONED TO SNOW NOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN TACT OVER THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DRY
SLOT DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STRONG ASCENT TODAY WHICH
QUICKLY COOLED THE COLUMN AND LED TO RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS CERTAINLY HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING EVENT TO WATCH UNFOLD. HIGH
DGZ...STRONG WINDS AND SATURATED COLUMN BELOW DGZ LED TO AN
INTERESTING PATTERN TODAY WITH PCPN TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS.
OBSERVATIONS AT KIWX SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN JUST A MATTER OF MINUTES. BANDS OF STRONGER
SNOW AND DEEPER LIFT PRODUCED LARGE SNOWFLAKES WHILE INTERMITTENT
PERIODS BETWEEN HEAVIER BANDS SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE DWINDLE TO VERY
FINE FLAKES AND EVEN SNOW PELLETS AND SLEET AT TIMES WITH SOME
MELTING AND REFREEZING. TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WARM LAYER CHANGED PCPN
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE DRY SLOT ENDED PCPN ENTIRELY. WHILE MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AREA HAS SEEN THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY...REPORTS FROM KSBN
AND METRO AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES
REPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND
URBAN SETTING THERE MAY HAVE BEEN FASTER COMPACTION AND MELTING
PROCESSES WITH SNOW ON GROUND COMPARED TO MORE RURAL AREAS.
REST OF EVENING WILL SEE DRY SLOT FILL IN AS EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ROTATES NORTH. DEFORMATION ZONE TO EXPAND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY. COLDER AIR WILL EXPAND EAST
AND SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TYPE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING IN FAR EAST.
RUC AND HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TYPES TODAY AND USED THESE
ALONG WITH NAM12 BLENDED FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN POWT PROCESS
FOR FORECAST GRIDS. LIQUID SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW AS EXPECTED
WITH AROUND 10 TO 1 AVERAGE. SHOULD SEE THESE IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR AND DGZ LOWERING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING OFF THE LAKE INTO NW AND NC INDIANA WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW. OVERALL INHERITED ACCUMS LOOK GOOD WITH REPORTS
RECEIVED ALREADY...TOTAL ACCUMS AROUND A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE NW
INDIANA TO SW MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW COMES TO AN
END.
HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG WITH WINDS JUST BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA HAS
KEPT NW AREAS FROM SEEING TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WARRANT KEEPING THE BZW IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME STRONGER GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH GRADIENT AS
WELL. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS INTACT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY EAST
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EASTWARD AND
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING
MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND ALEUTIANS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
US. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF
ALEUTIAN LOW AND ENTERING WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
SUNDAY...BUT THEN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TRANSITION PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AS THIS FIRST
SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE
COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS INVERTED TROF EXTENDING UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. A FEW POCKETS
OF MODERATE SNOW WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KSBN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONGER DEFORMATION BAND ROTATES THROUGH WITH
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 15Z BUT LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS...POSSIBLY FUEL
ALTERNATE...WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD GIVEN CAA/CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ009-
018-025>027-032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003>008-012>017-020-022>024.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
335 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Radar trends over the past several hours have been for a weakening
of the light to moderate snow shower activity. Latest water vapor
imagery and RAP analysis showing weak upper wave still upstream but
models are consistent with available moisture diminishing with time.
Will keep a mention of flurries into the early morning hours in the
far east but continued drying should bring this to an end by noon.
Mixing increasing into the midday should keep some lower cloud in
place and cold air advection from the overnight hours bringing
slightly cooler temps than Wednesday. Weak surface ridge passes
through tonight but winds picking up aloft again overnight and
some high cloud should keep fog in check.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge across the west coast
of the US will move east into the central Rockies. The longer wave
length upper level trough across the eastern US will begin to fill.
The central and southern plains will continue with northwest flow at
and mid and upper levels. Northwest winds at 850mb will become
westerly across eastern KS. This will result in WAA as 850mb
temperatures warm to 3 to 5 deg C. Deep mixing will allow High
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s. The surface winds will
only be 5 to 15 MPH from the southwest, thus I do not for see an
elevated fire danger.
Saturday, The upper level ridge across the west central US will
shift east across plains during the day. A lee surface trough will
deepen across the central and southern high plains which will cause
the low-level winds across central and eastern KS to increase
through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Southwest winds
will be 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH during the late morning
hours then back more to the south during the afternoon hours. WAA at
850mb will cause 850mb temperatures to increase to 11 to 14 DEG C
during the afternoon hours. The boundary layer should mix to at
least 850mb, which will allow high temperatures to reach the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the central plains Saturday night which will bring a weak
cold front southeast across the CWA. The low-levels look too dry for
any precipitation ahead of the H5 trough.
Despite low-level CAA and northwest surface winds, 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 4 to 8 DEC C range and
afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the mid to upper 60s.
An upper level trough will dig onshore across the Pacific northwest
and dig southeast into western CO and northeast AZ. A lee surface
trough will deepen across western KS and surface winds across the
CWA will become southerly. Highs on Monday may be a bit warmer than
the forecast, as the ECMWF shows better WAA at 850mb, my current
forecast have highs in the mid lower 60s but highs may reach a few
degrees warmer as long as we do not see high cloudiness spread
across the CWA.
Monday night through Wednesday,
Both the ECMWF and GFS model solutions are closer in the track of
the upper level trough digging southeast from western CO into the
Texas Panhandle then east across southern OK and north TX. The 00Z
GFS run is now more progressive than the ECMWF, moving the upper low
across southern OK into eastern AR by 12Z WED which would bring an
end to the precipitation Tuesday night. The ECMWF is more amplified
with the upper low and slowly shifts the upper low east across OK
into northeast AR by Wednesday evening.
Rain and potentially isolated evaluated thunderstorms will develop
Monday night as deeper moisture advects northward ahead of the
surface low over southwest KS. Temperatures will only drop into the
40s but will slowly rise through the night. Periods of rain will
continue through the day as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the CWA. Temperature aloft and at the surface may cool enough
for the rain to mix with snow across north central KS. Highs will
occur early in the day with temperatures steady to slowly falling
through the 40s into the upper 30s across the northern counties by
late afternoon.
Both models show a TROWAL region developing within the deformation
zone to the north and northwest of the upper low across central and
eastern KS Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF has colder
vertical temperature profiles which may cause the mixed rain and
snow to change over to snow across much of the CWA through the
night. The snow or rain snow mix will continue into Wednesday. It is
too early to say how much snow the CWA could potentially get but if
the ECMWF verifies, some areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
may receive several inches of heavy west snow. If the GFS were to
verify, then there would only be light accumulations. Temperatures
on Wednesday should warm into the lower to mid 40s, thus any snow
will change back to rain and melt through the day Wednesday.
Thursday, the upper low will push east across KY and TN and skies
should clear. There`s not much cold air behind the upper trough, so
temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 50s if there is no
significant snow cover across portions of the CWA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
There continues to be a concern for red flag conditions Saturday
as models continue to show a warm and breezy day. At this point
min RH values are forecast to be between 20 and 30 percent as south
winds gust around 25 to 35 MPH through the afternoon. Therefore the
potential exist for a critical range land fire danger and the
possible issuance of a red flag warning Saturday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
Area of light snow showers over TOP/FOE at 05Z should move south
of TAF sites by 06Z. Attention then turns to area of light snow
and MVFR cigs in eastern Nebraska. Believe some portion of this
moisture will impact TOP/FOE, and perhaps MHK, with MVFR cigs and
maybe a few snow showers before 12Z. Then expect a 2-4 hour period
of MVFR cigs from mid to late morning before lifting above 3000
feet.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
448 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHERN AREAS SEEING COLD AIR STAYING WEDGED IN FOR QUITE A
WHILE W/FREEZING RAIN STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND
THE ALLAGASH W/RAIN BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ICING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINTER STORM
WARNING ACROSS THE ST.JOHN VALLEY REMAINS W/UP TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE.
THIS AREA RECEIVED 7-8 INCHES OF WET SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INCLUDING CARIBOU, PRESQUE ISLE, HOULTON AND
MILLINOCKET WILL RUN THE RISK OF ICING ESPECIALLY ON SIDE ROADS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST HAVE EXPIRED AS TEMPS
HAVE SOARED INTO 40S AND 50S INCLUDING THE COAST.
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG W/CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING CONVECTION MOVING UP
FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST.
DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE
UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED
TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS
CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP.
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO
RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE
50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST
ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR W/HEAVY RAINFALL, LLWS AND CONVECTION ON TAP
ESPECIALLY KHUL TO KBHB. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE W/CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. IFR STAYING FOR TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SOME SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
344 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING
A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
RECORD LEVELS TODAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
BRING A WARM AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH RECORD WARM TEMPS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z AS A DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE TRENDS OFF THE HRRR MODEL. THE
LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDCOAST AREA. RECORD
WARM TEMPS WILL START OUT THE DAY BUT WILL COOL SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND FRI RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING A RETURN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR WITH LCL LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL
GUST OVR 40 KT UNTIL 15Z THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LLWS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...MARINE/JENSENIUS
MARINE...JENSENIUS/MARINE
HYDROLOGY...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1253 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND TRACK
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE RAINFALL FURTHER E BASED ON THE
LATEST KCBW RADAR AND MRMS. HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 ARE HANDLING THINGS
QUITE WELL W/THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND A LARGER AREA MOVING UP THROUGH NYS INTO VT/NH BORDER. TEMPS
STILL RUNNING RIGHT AROUND 32F ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MAINE
W/FZRA ONGOING. WAA TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND W/READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS AIR WILL MAKE ITS
WAY NORTH THIS LATER MORNING. WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
EARLIER REPORTS INDICATED SOME SIDE ROADS STILL ICY DESPITE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE MID 30S. FURTHER N, WINTER WX HEADLINES(WINTER
STORM WARNING/ADVISORY)REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW.
FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE WARMER AIR AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED TSTMS DUE TO ELEVATED CAPE OF
AROUND 200 JOULES AND 850-700MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM. THESE
STORMS WILL DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD BRING DOWN STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED LATER THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST RADAR REF AND DUAL POL CC IMAGERY
SHOWS A CLR TRANSITION LINE FROM SN TO PL/FZRA MOVG NWRD INTO NE
AROOSTOOK...NRN PISCATAQUIS AND XTRM NRN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES AS OF
MID TO LATE AFTN...MOVG N AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. GIVEN THIS
TREND...SN SHOULD CHG TO FZRA IN THE ST JOHN VLY IN THE 6-8PM TM
FRAME. ANY SLEET SEEMS TO BE VERY BRIEF...MAYBE ABOUT A HALF AN HR
RIGHT AT CHGOVR...GIVING CREDENCE TO THE SREF PRECIP TYPE
PROBS...WHICH SHOWED LITTLE CHCS OF SLEET. OTHERWISE...ALL RN WILL
FOLLOW SUITE FROM DOWNEAST AREAS...REACHING E CNTRL AND NE PTNS OF
THE FA A COUPLE OF HRS EITHER SIDE OF MDNGT DEPENDING HOW FAR N
YOU ARE... TO THE ERLY MORN AND PRE-DAYBREAK HRS OVR THE ST JOHN
VLY.
WE ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY FOG WHERE ALL RN IS FCST TONIGHT INTO THU
MORN...THINKING THAT DWPT TEMPS AOA FZG OVR SN PACK AND COLD
GROUND WILL RESULT IN SOME LLVL CONDENSATION...DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF AN ERLY TO SERLY BREEZE. OTHERWISE...AFTER A SLOW
STEADY RISE THIS EVE...SFC TEMPS WILL RISE RAPIDLY WITH PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SSE LATER TNGT INTO THU MORN. STEADY RN
WILL TAPER TO SCT SHWRS LATER THU AFTN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...WHICH COULD FEATURE A LN OF BRIEF MDT TO HEAVY
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HI TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH HI TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 40S N AND W TO LOWER 50S S AND E BY THU AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A MOSTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND MILD START TO THE NIGHT WITH A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT REACHING WESTERN AREAS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE
DOWNEAST COAST AROUND DAWN. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION AND BY DAY BREAK FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY, DRY
AND COLDER. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO
CENTRAL CANADA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
WILL BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A MATURE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER MAKER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EARLY SUN MRNG THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
MAINE. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE FRONT OVER MAINE AS A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE CNTRL WI MOVE THE SRN END OF THE FRONT BACK ACROSS AS A
WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THRU MAINE...ITS 2NDY
LOW IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OVER NRN IA. THE GFS MON EVNG MOVES
THE WARM FRONT TO CNTRL ME...AS THE LOW MOVES TO SRN LAKE HURON.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE WARM FRONT TO SW ME...THE LOW TO SRN LAKE MI.
BY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO SRN QUEBEC/NRN VT/NH...THE
WARM FRONT OVER NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE ECMWF TO ERN LAKE
ERIE...NRN NY...THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN PISCATAQUIS/PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES. MON EVNG BOTH MODELS MOVE THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS A NEW LOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...ECMWF SHOWS A NEW LOW OVER ERN NE. THE GFS BY TUES MRNG
SHOW THE LOW OVER LAKE ERIE...WRM FRNT INTO SRN ME. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE LOW OVER NRN MO...WRM FRNT INTO ERN GREAT LAKES. BY TUES
EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE ERN GULF OF MAINE...ECMWF WRN
GULF OF MAINE. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW OVER ERN
TX. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...THEN
EAST TO THE COAST OF MASS. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST THE
WRM FRNT MOVES INTO SW ME WED MRNG. BY WED EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE
WRM FRNT INTO CNTRL ME. THE ECMWF MOVES THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE
N ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ME. BY THE OF THE PERIOD THE GFS
INDICATES THAT THE WRM FRNT WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS NRN ME...THE
ECMWF SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN QUEBEC. OTHER
THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THEN DRIFT APART.
LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED
NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WIND GUST BY
FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONT LIFR AND LCLY VLIFR TNGT IN MIXED PRECIP TO
RN/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE N AND RN/PATCHY FOG CNTRL AND DOWNEAST.
LIFR CONDITIONS IN RN/FOG THU MORN SHOULD AT LEAST IMPROVE TO IFR
THUS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVR DOWNEAST SITES MID
TO LATE AFTN.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY RAMP UP TO GALE
FORCE GUSTS AND WV HTS UP TO 10 TO 14 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND 5
TO 9 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ THU AND THU NGT. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV HTS FOR THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM: GALES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONED TO
SCA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WHERE THERE IS STILL SIG
SN PACK ON THE GROUND AND RVR ICE. WITH THE FCST OF 1.50 TO 2.0
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIV...WHICH WILL MSLY BE RNFL...XCPT PERHAPS
ACROSS THE XTRM N (NRN ZONE1) WHERE MORE THAN HALF THE EVENT WILL
BE SNFL AND ICE. THE COMBO OF MDT TO HVY RNFL AND RAPIDLY RISING
TEMPS WILL MELT THE CURRENT SNFL AND SOME OF THE OLDER SN
PACK...RESULTING IN SIG RUN-OFF IN STREAMS AND EVENTUALLY NRN
RIVERWAYS THU INTO THU EVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MINOR STREAM
FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAMS.
URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...SPCLY
IF RN AND SN MELT RUN-OFF IS BLOCKED BY SN CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ010-011-015>017-031-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SE
CONUS FROM A LOW N OF HUDSON BAY. A STORM SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 987MB LOW OVER SW OHIO DOMINATING THE
ERN CONUS RESULTED IN INCREASING N TO NE WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS MARGINAL
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...ABUNDANT UPSTREAM 925-850 MB MOISTURE
ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT -SHSN INTO WRN
UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS FROM AROUND
30 NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WEAK CAA DROPS 850 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/THU. FCST LOW LEVEL CONV SUGGESTS THAT
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST NEAR IWD AND N CNTRL NEAR THE HURON
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 4K-5K FT...ANY AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR CNTRL AND EAST MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME BLSN
WHERE ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR.
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CAA AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS PULLING
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -15C TO -17C RANGE...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LES OVER LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NRLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NNW THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST OF MARQUETTE AND E OF
IWD. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. WITH
MORE LOOSE SNOW AVAILABLE TO BLOW AROUND...THE 30-35 MPH WINDS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF REDUCED VSBY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CHILLY WX/SOME LES ON THU NGT INTO FRI WL GIVE WAY TO A MILDER
PERIOD ON FRI NGT/SAT AS THE UPR FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL AND UPR
MI ENDS UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.
THE COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO THIS LO PRES WL PASS THRU THE CWA ON SAT
NGT...BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER WX. AS A SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA...A SFC LO PRES IS FCST TO MOVE E ALONG THE COLD FNT TO THE
S...LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SYNTOPIC SN TO THE CWA ON SUN INTO
SUN NGT. SEASONABLY CHILLY WX SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE LIGHT SN ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER CLIPPER LO
PRES ON MON.
THU NGT...ONGOING LES WL MOST PERSISTENT IN THE NNW WIND SN BELTS E
OF MQT AS COLD AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -16 TO -18C OVER
THE E HALF THRU 12Z FRI...CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE UPR LKS BTWN HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND DEPARTING SFC LO IN
QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM LLVL AIRMASS...
INVRN BASES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 4-5K FT MSL...H85-6 DRYNESS DESPITE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHRTWV DO NOT FAVOR ANY SGNFT SN ACCUMS...SOME
LLVL CNVGC ALONG LK INDUCED TROFFING INTO ALGER COUNTY AND FAVORABLE
PLACEMENT OF THE DGZ IN THE MOIST LYR BLO THE INVRN BASE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SN IN SOME AREAS. LINGERING BLSN IN THE
EVNG WL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS WITH THE SLOW
APRCH OF THE HI PRES. THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ACYC H925 FLOW/
LOWERING INVRN BASE WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE HI PRES WL DIMINISH
LINGERING LES OVER THE W DURING THE OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS
MAY TEND TO BREAK UP LATE OVER THE W...SOME INCOMING HI CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WEAK SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.
FRI/FRI NGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS CROSSES THE WRN GREAT LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WSW ON FRI...LINGERING LES WL DIMINISH AND
END. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS MAY TEND TO SHIFT OUT OVER LK SUP...
MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHRTWV AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS WL RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI
CLD COVER. BUT FCST DRYNESS OF THE H85-7 LYR IN THE ABSENCE OF LLVL
MSTR INFLOW WL RESTRICT LO CHC POPS TO MAINLY LK SUP CLOSER TO SFC
LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. AS THE WAA LIFTS H85 TEMPS BACK TO -6
TO -8C LATE OVER THE W BY 00Z SAT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND AT LEAST
CLOSE TO 30. A STEADY WSW WIND AND THE MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE FALL
OF TEMPS ON FRI NGT.
SAT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE RECENT TREND SHOWING SFC COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO AND MOVING INTO QUEBEC
REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA THRU 00Z SUN. WITH THE WAA FCST TO
LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 4C ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 00Z SUN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S
DESPITE SOME LINGERING HI CLDS. POSTED THE HIEST MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
WI BORDER...WHERE THERE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SOME SUNSHINE FARTHER S
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S THRU
THE CWA ON SAT NGT TO THE S OF CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD NW ONTARIO.
WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF WL OCCUR UNDER DRY AIR AND THUS LIKELY BE
PCPN FREE...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AN AXIS OF HIER MID LVL
MSTR WL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA BY SUN AHEAD OF AN APRCHG
SHRTWV THAT WL ALSO CAUSE A LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE BNDRY
SINKING SLOWLY TO THE S. AS THIS WAVE OF LO PRES SHIFTS TO THE E
THRU SCENTRAL WI UNDER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA OF UPR DVGC
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET MAX OVER SE CANADA AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...THE MODELS SHOW WDSPRD MAINLY SN DVLPG OVER THE CWA ON SUN
UNDER AXIS OF H7 FGEN. WHILE MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SN...
GFS FCST SDNGS HINT AT AN ELEVATED WARM LYR OVER THE S HALF OF MNM
COUNTY...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING RA/RA IN THAT AREA
INTO SUN AFTN AND BEFORE THE COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THAT AREA. THE
12Z CNDN MODEL IS PARTICULARLY WET...WITH 12HR QPF UP TO 0.75 INCH
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BTWN 18Z SUN AND 06Z MON. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE NOT
THAT WET BUT GENERATE AS MUCH AS 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN TIER WHERE SHARPENING CYC NE FLOW ARND THE LO PRES WAVE WL
UPSLOPE AND BRING SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -12
TO -14C. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...SYNTOPIC SN WL TRANSITION TO
LES.
EXTENDED...THE EXTENDED MODELS...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS...HINT
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE WL MOVE NEAR THE AREA ON MON. SO
THE FCST WL SHOW SOME CHC POPS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN HINT
ANOTHER SFC LO DVLPG OVER THE SCENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE TOWARD THE SE
GREAT LKS BY WED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE
SE...BUT RETAINED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP WITH
LLVL NNE FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SFC LO POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
LES. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE NEAR EARLY MAR NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE AT TIMES. WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VIS TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY TODAY...PARTICULARLY AT KSAW
DUE TO FAVORABLE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION AND TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
BTWN HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES LIFTING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO SE CANADA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
N-NW GALES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEEKENS BETWEEN EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER S QUEBEC...AND NEARING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CO. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BEFORE SINKING
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT-SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER N ONTARIO FRIDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BAY AN
ADDITIONAL LOW SLIDING AND STRENGTHENING FROM CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND EAST OF JAMES BAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK
ACROSS ONTARIO LATE SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WITH A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND N PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL LOW WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST...CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1154 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SE
CONUS FROM A LOW N OF HUDSON BAY. A STORM SYSTEM WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 987MB LOW OVER SW OHIO DOMINATING THE
ERN CONUS RESULTED IN INCREASING N TO NE WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS MARGINAL
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C...ABUNDANT UPSTREAM 925-850 MB MOISTURE
ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT -SHSN INTO WRN
UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS FROM AROUND
30 NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EXPECT LES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WEAK CAA DROPS 850 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/THU. FCST LOW LEVEL CONV SUGGESTS THAT
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST NEAR IWD AND N CNTRL NEAR THE HURON
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 4K-5K FT...ANY AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR CNTRL AND EAST MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME BLSN
WHERE ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR.
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CAA AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS PULLING
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -15C TO -17C RANGE...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LES OVER LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NRLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NNW THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST OF MARQUETTE AND E OF
IWD. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. WITH
MORE LOOSE SNOW AVAILABLE TO BLOW AROUND...THE 30-35 MPH WINDS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF REDUCED VSBY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
CHILLY WX/SOME LES ON THU NGT INTO FRI WL GIVE WAY TO A MILDER
PERIOD ON FRI NGT/SAT AS THE UPR FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL AND UPR
MI ENDS UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SFC LO PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO.
THE COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO THIS LO PRES WL PASS THRU THE CWA ON SAT
NGT...BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER WX. AS A SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA...A SFC LO PRES IS FCST TO MOVE E ALONG THE COLD FNT TO THE
S...LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SYNTOPIC SN TO THE CWA ON SUN INTO
SUN NGT. SEASONABLY CHILLY WX SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE LIGHT SN ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER CLIPPER LO
PRES ON MON.
THU NGT...ONGOING LES WL MOST PERSISTENT IN THE NNW WIND SN BELTS E
OF MQT AS COLD AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -16 TO -18C OVER
THE E HALF THRU 12Z FRI...CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE UPR LKS BTWN HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND DEPARTING SFC LO IN
QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM LLVL AIRMASS...
INVRN BASES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 4-5K FT MSL...H85-6 DRYNESS DESPITE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHRTWV DO NOT FAVOR ANY SGNFT SN ACCUMS...SOME
LLVL CNVGC ALONG LK INDUCED TROFFING INTO ALGER COUNTY AND FAVORABLE
PLACEMENT OF THE DGZ IN THE MOIST LYR BLO THE INVRN BASE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SN IN SOME AREAS. LINGERING BLSN IN THE
EVNG WL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS WITH THE SLOW
APRCH OF THE HI PRES. THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ACYC H925 FLOW/
LOWERING INVRN BASE WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE HI PRES WL DIMINISH
LINGERING LES OVER THE W DURING THE OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS
MAY TEND TO BREAK UP LATE OVER THE W...SOME INCOMING HI CLDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WEAK SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.
FRI/FRI NGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS CROSSES THE WRN GREAT LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WSW ON FRI...LINGERING LES WL DIMINISH AND
END. ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS MAY TEND TO SHIFT OUT OVER LK SUP...
MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHRTWV AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-290K SFCS WL RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MID/HI
CLD COVER. BUT FCST DRYNESS OF THE H85-7 LYR IN THE ABSENCE OF LLVL
MSTR INFLOW WL RESTRICT LO CHC POPS TO MAINLY LK SUP CLOSER TO SFC
LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. AS THE WAA LIFTS H85 TEMPS BACK TO -6
TO -8C LATE OVER THE W BY 00Z SAT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND AT LEAST
CLOSE TO 30. A STEADY WSW WIND AND THE MID/HI CLDS WL LIMIT THE FALL
OF TEMPS ON FRI NGT.
SAT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE RECENT TREND SHOWING SFC COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO AND MOVING INTO QUEBEC
REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA THRU 00Z SUN. WITH THE WAA FCST TO
LIFT H85 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 4C ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 00Z SUN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S
DESPITE SOME LINGERING HI CLDS. POSTED THE HIEST MAX TEMPS NEAR THE
WI BORDER...WHERE THERE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SOME SUNSHINE FARTHER S
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT.
SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S THRU
THE CWA ON SAT NGT TO THE S OF CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD NW ONTARIO.
WHILE THE FROPA ITSELF WL OCCUR UNDER DRY AIR AND THUS LIKELY BE
PCPN FREE...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AN AXIS OF HIER MID LVL
MSTR WL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA BY SUN AHEAD OF AN APRCHG
SHRTWV THAT WL ALSO CAUSE A LO PRES WAVE TO DVLP ON THE BNDRY
SINKING SLOWLY TO THE S. AS THIS WAVE OF LO PRES SHIFTS TO THE E
THRU SCENTRAL WI UNDER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA OF UPR DVGC
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET MAX OVER SE CANADA AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV...THE MODELS SHOW WDSPRD MAINLY SN DVLPG OVER THE CWA ON SUN
UNDER AXIS OF H7 FGEN. WHILE MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SN...
GFS FCST SDNGS HINT AT AN ELEVATED WARM LYR OVER THE S HALF OF MNM
COUNTY...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING RA/RA IN THAT AREA
INTO SUN AFTN AND BEFORE THE COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THAT AREA. THE
12Z CNDN MODEL IS PARTICULARLY WET...WITH 12HR QPF UP TO 0.75 INCH
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BTWN 18Z SUN AND 06Z MON. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE NOT
THAT WET BUT GENERATE AS MUCH AS 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN TIER WHERE SHARPENING CYC NE FLOW ARND THE LO PRES WAVE WL
UPSLOPE AND BRING SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -12
TO -14C. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...SYNTOPIC SN WL TRANSITION TO
LES.
EXTENDED...THE EXTENDED MODELS...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS...HINT
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE WL MOVE NEAR THE AREA ON MON. SO
THE FCST WL SHOW SOME CHC POPS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN HINT
ANOTHER SFC LO DVLPG OVER THE SCENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE TOWARD THE SE
GREAT LKS BY WED. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE
SE...BUT RETAINED SOME LO CHC POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP WITH
LLVL NNE FLOW ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SFC LO POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
LES. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE NEAR EARLY MAR NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE AT TIMES. WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VIS TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY TODAY...PARTICULARLY AT KSAW
DUE TO FAVORABLE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION AND TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT
BTWN HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES LIFTING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO SE CANADA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY WILL WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO SHIFTSINTO N QUEBEC. THE RESULT WILL BE N-NE
GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES THURSDAY BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE REPLACED BY A
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WHILE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES N
ONTARIO. SW GUSTS COULD NEAR 30KTS FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
WRN LAKES SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BRIEFLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A CLIPPER LOW MOVE IN MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
.AVIATION...
SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MUCH
OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE DUE TO FOG...WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING MAINLY MBS. THE AXIS OF MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW WILL ROTATE BACK ACROSS SE MI DURING THE MORNING.
THE OVERALL TREND AS THE SNOW PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE A
WEAKENING ONE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AT PTK/FNT/MBS THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. WITH THE SNOWFALL...CIGS AND VSBY
WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND LOW END MVFR. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER
WILL HOWEVER HOLD WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO AFTERNOON. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AS MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW OVERSPREADS METRO. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC TEMPS AT METRO SHOULD
HOLD BETWEEN 32 AND 33 DEGREES. MORNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
* MODERATE IN PRECIP BEING ALL SNOW THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 907 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
UPDATE...
EARLIER THIS EVENING...A QUASI STATIONARY REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING SUPPORTED AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL...ALIGNED
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE IRISH HILLS. THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SINCE LIFTED NORTHWARD WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTED A DECREASE IN THE SLOPE OF THE THETA SURFACES. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN A RAPID REFOCUSING OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
SNOWFALL NORTHWARD INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...WITH A
LARGE BREAK IN THE SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW
COUNTIES. THE REGION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY ADVANCE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING ACROSS SRN MI BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A SECOND REGION OF PRECIP HAS ADVANCED INTO
MONROE AND WAYNE/SRN MACOMB COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG FGEN NEAR 850MB. THIS
HAS BEEN MORE CONVECTIVE AND IS PRODUCING A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET
AND RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO LIGHT SNOW TOWARD EARLY THURS
MORNING AS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WORKS BACK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
AVAILABLE SPOTTER REPORTS THIS EVENING SUGGEST A SOLID 6 TO 10
INCHES HAS FALLEN NORTH AND WEST OF AN ADRIAN TO PORT HURON LINE
/ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRISH HILLS/. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THIS LINE WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES AS PRECIP TURNED
OVER TO RAIN IN THESE LOCALS. GIVEN THE LARGE BREAK IN PRECIP
ACROSS LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AND CONSIDERING THE SNOW
THAT MOVES BACK INTO THESE AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE WARNING FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES WILL BE
UNCHANGED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2
TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NRN SAGINAW
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IN THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING...WHICH
CERTAINLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN EARLIER
CANCELLATION TO SOME OF THE HEADLINES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST
PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016
DISCUSSION...
WARM CONVEYOR BELT WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO BRUNT OF THE WINTER STORM FOR CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH EXCELLENT SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND AND ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OFF AND
ON NATURE OF PRECIPITATION...ALLOWED FOR TREATED/HIGH TRAFFIC ROADS
TO BE MAINLY WET WITH THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE...UP UNTIL THE
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ARRIVED. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
SOLIDLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...WITH EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF SAGINAW BAY/SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES 1/4SM OR LESS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY...AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY NEAR ZERO CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A PERIOD TO
SUPPORT BLIZZARD WARNING.
WITH THE IMPINGING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASING UP NEAR 6.75 C/KM TOWARD OHIO BORDER...A LIGHTNING STRIKE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER 12Z
EURO/RAP13...A ONE TO THREE C WARM LAYER...NEAR 850 MB
LEVEL...EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF WESTERN MONROE...WESTERN
WAYNE...NORTHEAST TO PORT HURON LINE THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION (DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY) INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (LITTLE ACCUMULATION) IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH DAYTON AND THEN IN
BETWEEN CLEVELAND AND AKRON LATE. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR BLEED
IN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH BIGGEST DROP
PROBABLY HOLDING OFF LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON
NORTHWEST DIRECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO SETTLE TO -8 C
OR SLIGHTLY COLDER.
700 MB LOW/CIRCULATION LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT FAIRLY ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-
SOUTH FASHION...CALLING INTO QUESTION EXACTLY WHERE THE BETTER
DEFORMATION/MID LEVEL FGEN/FORCING WILL RESIDE TONIGHT...BUT STILL
PLENTY OF EVIDENCE TO MAINTAIN BAND(S) ACROSS NORTH HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH COOLING PROFILES LEADING TO BETTER
RATIOS AS NIGHT WEARS ON. 12HR EURO QPF FOR TONIGHT STILL INDICATING
0.35 TO 0.5 INCHES NORTH OF M-59. TWEAKED TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN
SLIGHTLY (AROUND ONE INCH) FROM MORNING UPDATE...AS COMPACTION IS A
FACTOR AND SLEET EXTENDED JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST...BUT ALL CURRENT
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. ALTHOUGH...NOT IN LOVE WITH THE ADVISORY FOR
MONROE COUNTY...AS LITTLE ISSUES EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NONE-THE-
LESS...WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW RETURNING BY THURSDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS BY THEN.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STILL ON TRACK TO KICK THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ALLOW SNOW TO
TAPER OFF NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON THURSDAY...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER AND STILL SOME 925 MB COLD ADVECTION...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW TO TAKE HOLD...AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE LOW TO
MID TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT...A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY WILL
TEND TO END ANY ACTIVITY AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE IN THE
DAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST CANADIAN LOW DROPS OVER THE DAKOTA`S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BEGINS ITS EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD MICHIGAN. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST. AT PRESENT...INCREASING CHANCES
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURES DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY STABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30`S AND LOWS IN THE
20`S.
MARINE...
GUSTS TO STRONG NORTHEAST GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
HELPING TO BUILD SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
AND POSSIBLY THE EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TIP OF THE THUMB TO
13 FEET WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 20 FEET. AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE EAST...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY. THE LONGER FETCH WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BUILD TO 16 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON WITH MAX WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 25 FEET OR GREATER. GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON
REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY BEFORE FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF ONE HALF INCH IN EXPECTED NORTH OF I-
69 THROUGH TONIGHT ONE TO TWO TENTHS TO THE SOUTH. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF AN ADRIAN TO PORT HURON LINE...ABOUT HALF WILL FALL AS RAIN
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE...ALL QPF WILL GO INTO SNOWPACK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ075-076-082-
083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...SF/DE
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
348 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CURRENT RUC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH FALLING 850HPA TEMPS. THE COOLING ALOFT HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...HOLDING OFF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AS THE LAPSE RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN RECEIVING FLURRIES TO A
DUSTING...AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SEEING
AN INCH OR TWO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND IRON RANGE AREAS AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DIFFICULT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/DURATION OF
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 40S. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND ELSEWHERE UP TO AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN TEMPS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL COME OUT OF CENTRAL
MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS HAD THE MORE POTENT SOLUTION...IN TONIGHTS 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKER...AS IS THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY ENDING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER- MOVING SUNDAY SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS...LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY...BUT THEN WARMING
RIGHT UP AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MN...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE DRY AIR TAKE HOLD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM NE TO SW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE
REGION...SCOURING OUT MVFR CIGS ACROSS NC MN...CENTRAL MN AND NW
WI. THEN...STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING MORE MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 12 32 27 / 10 0 0 0
INL 26 5 34 25 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 31 16 36 26 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 31 12 32 25 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 30 12 33 28 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a compact vort max
propagating around the periphery of the upper level trough moving
through the Great Lakes region. This shot of energy and associated
isentropic lift will bring a few light snow showers into the western
half of the CWA this morning. Bufkit soundings have moistened up the
low levels compared to previous soundings. The HRRR also supports
some light precip through about 19Z. As temperatures rise this
morning, any precip may change to more of a rain/snow mix or light
rain showers. Winds will become gusty on the backside of this system
and cloud cover looks to remain through the day before clearing late
this afternoon and evening.
Fire weather concerns are expected this weekend as temperatures warm
into the upper 60s and maybe low 70s. Southwest winds will allow
relative humidities to potentially drop into the 20s and 30s in a
set-up that looks similar to last weeks critical fire weather days.
With limited moisture this month, fuels are are dry and any fire
that ignites will burn readily.
Focus then turns to precip chances late in the weekend and then
again early in the work week. A shortwave trough will swing through
Sunday, but with limited moisture in place best precip chances look
to remain well north of the region. The best chances for precip will
focus on a trough diving south out of the intermountain west Monday
or Tuesday. This system will deepen as it ejects into the plains,
but long-range models are still having difficulty with the timing,
track, and overall strength of the system. Depending on these
factors, some locations in the CWA could see some spring snow
while other locations see some thunder.
.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
Clear skies will give way to MVFR stratus approaching from the
northwest overnight. Precipitation within this wave should dissipate
prior to reaching the terminals, though a few flurries may occur at
KSTJ if the activity holds together into early Thursday morning.
The stratus layer will hang on through much of the morning and into
the early afternoon before eventually lifting by sunset. Winds will
remain steady out of the NW until Thursday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1139 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE FROM
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD
TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT. IT DID HAVE 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS IN WRN ND AT 12Z...AND 300 MB WINDS
WERE AROUND 115 KNOTS FROM SASK DOWN INTO WRN SD. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED ECHOES DROPPING SEWD ACROSS SD AND PARTS
OF NRN NE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND EVEN A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE AT SOME SPOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS. RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING ARE INTERESTING...WITH SOME 40-50 DBZ
ECHOES SHOWN. WILL MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
(TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW BY MID EVENING) THEN A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW (DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIME) AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED AREAS GETTING AROUND AN INCH.
EXPECT LOWS 25 TO 30 AND WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING.
FLURRIES COULD LINGER THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS MAY
BE AROUND 30 MPH OR HIGHER. HIGHS SHOULD BE 35 TO 40 NORTH AND 38
TO 42 SOUTH.
THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS DRY. MID
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY. STRONGER
WARMING SETS IN FOR SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN...WITH A MILD DAY ON TAP. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S...FAIRLY CLOSE TO OR ABOVE GFS MOS. DEWPOINTS AT THIS
TIME LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS DOWN...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLY LAGGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT OUR AREA
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR ABOUT
THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MODEST 850-500 MB MEAN RH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY NUMBERS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT TOO.
OTHERWISE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE
SPREADS PCPN INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN IN OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THE PCPN TYPE ACROSS
ERN NE AND SWRN IA WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW MORE
LIKELY IN OUR NRN ZONES AND RAIN MORE LIKELY SRN ZONES. AT THIS
POINT...BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS QPF VALUES ARE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER MAY BE TOO DRY. AT LEAST SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BUT HELD ONTO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KOMA AND KLNK TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. CIGS NEAR FL015 AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON
IN THESE SHOWERS...BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. A
PERIOD OF CIGS LIFTING TO VFR NEAR FL050 IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK AND KLNK...WITH KOMA LIKELY SEEING
CIGS NEAR FL025 MUCH OF THAT PERIOD. THEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
SHOULD RULE MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN
AND MOISTURE IN THE FL015 TO FL040 LAYER. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
OR MOVE OUT OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25KT ARE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z AS WELL...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO LESS
THAN 10KT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST IS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARDS
OR AT FORECAST LOWS ALREADY...AND WITH INCREASING CLEAR 9-12Z WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT THERE. CLOUDS AND A STEADY
NORTH WIND CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD RESULT IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
MINS HOLDING.
KABR REPORTED FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN
AT VALLEY CITY WITH AIR TEMPERATURE AT 27F. ATMOSPHERIC RH PROFILE
WOULD SUPPORT THIS SO WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER MY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
END AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
ONCE AGAIN THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY ADJUSTING POPS BASED
ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVED SOUTHWARD ON A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD LONGITUDE THAN EXPECTED
AND HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH BISMARCK/MANDAN SINCE ABOUT 02 UTC. A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY
RECENT RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 00 UTC NAM...SO WE STILL EXPECT
A QUICK DROP-OFF IN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. OUR FOCUS WAS ON REFINING
POPS FOR THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ND
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN PER 2345 UTC SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT MEANT
DECREASING POPS A BIT OVER WESTERN ND WHERE ASOS/AWOS TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY...AND INCREASING THEM A BIT FOR THE
BATCH OF RELATIVELY-HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE RUGBY
AND TOWNER AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SIMULATIONS DO KEY ON
THAT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TAKE THEM SOUTHWARD TOWARD STEELE
AND JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATION CENTERS MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH AND WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOME WILL FALL AS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LIMITING ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON.
RATHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM OVERALL SO EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WITH MILD AIR TO THE WEST. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS 30S NORTH CENTRAL TO MID 40S.
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY 20-25...THOUGH STILL A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OUR REGION TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
A THERMAL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY. THE
WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE 40S NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE JAMES VALLEY...50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE WARM AIR ON SATURDAY IS AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COOL START TO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
MONDAY FROM THE TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH 12 UTC AS
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH SCT-BKN PERIODS OF LOW CIGS WEST FOR KISN AND KDIK.
ALL CEILINGS WILL LIFT THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
208 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WRAP-AROUND
FLOW BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA. WITH THE FRONT
GONE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT...AND
WE ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
REGIME.
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...SO
HAVE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE COOLS.
INITIALLY ON THIS EVENING SHIFT...THOUGHT THE HRRR WAS COOLING
TOO QUICKLY...SO RELIED MORE ON A CONSENSUS/LAMP BLEND FOR HOURLY
TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS EVENING THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY BEEN A BIT
BETTER TO OUR WEST...WHERE SNOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FALL IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...SO RECONFIGURED HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BY BLENDING IN MORE HRRR. GENERALLY TEMPS ARE SLOW TO
DROP TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL REBOUND THURSDAY. THIS
ALLOWS SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO NEGATE MUCH IF NOT ALL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE
INCOMING RADIATION IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTHWEST...INTO SE OHIO...COULD START TO GET A COATING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD IS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850MB TEMPS COOL TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. HAVE AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING SOME THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
A BIT MORE STABLE...BUT STILL A RATHER BREEZY STRETCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. T850 WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF -10C TO -13C WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE CAN GET. FOR
NOW I WENT A LITTLE BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR FOR LOW TEMPS...FOR IF
WE CAN CLEAR OUT THE TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY AND WEAK
RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK UP NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.
CLIPPER ARRIVES SUN EVENING INTO MON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PLACEMENT OF THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE. BRIEF
DRY PERIOD TO FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS...INCLUDING
SOME FROZEN PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS...ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE A 500 MB WAVE CROSSES THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTING A LARGE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID OHIO VALLEY. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...RAPIDLY DEVELOPS A DEEP...SLOWER-MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE PARTICULAR TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 12Z RUN SEEMS SUSPECT...SO WILL
NOT RELY HEAVILY ON THAT SOLUTION UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
YIELDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MORE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO OUR
AREA...SO SKY/POP/WEATHER GRIDS MORE REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.
TEMPS FOLLOW A MIX OF CONSENSUS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND. EXPECT
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE BY THU/DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE EXITING AREA LEAVING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES SHOULD WE
DECOUPLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD OVER AREA AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN
GENERAL HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE UP AND DOWN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IN BACKLASH OF STORM...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN WEST
VIRGINIA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WRAP-AROUND
FLOW BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA. WITH THE FRONT
GONE...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT...AND
WE ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
REGIME.
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...SO
HAVE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE COOLS.
INITIALLY ON THIS EVENING SHIFT...THOUGHT THE HRRR WAS COOLING
TOO QUICKLY...SO RELIED MORE ON A CONSENSUS/LAMP BLEND FOR HOURLY
TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS EVENING THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY BEEN A BIT
BETTER TO OUR WEST...WHERE SNOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FALL IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...SO RECONFIGURED HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BY BLENDING IN MORE HRRR. GENERALLY TEMPS ARE SLOW TO
DROP TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL REBOUND THURSDAY. THIS
ALLOWS SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO NEGATE MUCH IF NOT ALL
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE
INCOMING RADIATION IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTHWEST...INTO SE OHIO...COULD START TO GET A COATING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD IS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS 850MB TEMPS COOL TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. HAVE AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING SOME THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
A BIT MORE STABLE...BUT STILL A RATHER BREEZY STRETCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY AS IT IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AND THE FOLLOWING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MOIST SHORT WAVE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE COLD ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE COMBINE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEPT SNOW ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN MUCH OF
THE LOW LANDS DUE TO WARMER GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE
CONSIDERATIONS. UP TO A FEW INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST DURING FRIDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEINGS SUNSHINE
SATURDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS WILL
RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS TO AROUND 6
INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND STILL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY DESPITE A MODEST WARMING
TREND WITH SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.
CLIPPER ARRIVES SUN EVENING INTO MON WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PLACEMENT OF THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE. BRIEF
DRY PERIOD TO FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS...INCLUDING
SOME FROZEN PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS...ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE A 500 MB WAVE CROSSES THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTING A LARGE PROGRESSIVE OPEN
WAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MID OHIO VALLEY. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...RAPIDLY DEVELOPS A DEEP...SLOWER-MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH...EVENTUALLY EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE PARTICULAR TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 12Z RUN SEEMS SUSPECT...SO WILL
NOT RELY HEAVILY ON THAT SOLUTION UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
YIELDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MORE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO OUR
AREA...SO SKY/POP/WEATHER GRIDS MORE REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.
TEMPS FOLLOW A MIX OF CONSENSUS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND. EXPECT
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A
COOL DOWN POSSIBLE BY THU/DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE EXITING AREA LEAVING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES SHOULD WE
DECOUPLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD OVER AREA AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN
GENERAL HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE UP AND DOWN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IN BACKLASH OF STORM...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN WEST
VIRGINIA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
341 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THE EXITING WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES A TRAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR WITH SOME TRACE PRECIPITATION SUCH HAS BEEN SHOWING ON ABR
RADAR...A FEW REPORTING POINTS...AND DEPICTED ON THE HRRR RADAR
GRAPHICS. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY VERY FINE
FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS BUT MUST COVER FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN. OF COURSE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE STIFF
SIDE OR THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS IT IS SPIT OUT IN FORECASTS.
CLEARING LATER TODAY SHOULD BE DEFINITE BUT GRADUAL...VERY
GRADUAL EAST AND A BIT FASTER WEST...AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FIRST STOPS THE TRACE PRECIPITATION THEN EATS AWAY AT THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH EAST...A COUPLE DEGREES DIP THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES RISE...WITH WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY.
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD PICK UP STEAM BY THE START OF THE EVENING
AND THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY WELL BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE THOUGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHICH WILL SEE THE COMBO OF LATEST TO CLEAR...AND LATEST TO
SEE THE START OF A WEAK WARMING AND DRYING FLOW WHICH MAY START WEST
AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW AFTER COORDINATION BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOR KSUX MAY BE AN
AVIATION CONSIDERATION LATER
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING SNOW PACK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED
THE UPWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH H925
TEMPERATURES EASILY EXCEEDING 10C.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MIXY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR HIGHWAY 14.
AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR MID WEEK...FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE THAN THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE GEM. THE ECMWF
IS DEEPER WITH A GREATER FOCUS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES GOING MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WITH
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
OVER NORTHWEST IA UNTIL 09Z CEILINGS 1-3K FEET AND AREAS VSBYS
3-5SM/-SN. OTHERWISE OVER AREA CEILINGS 3-5K FEET VARIABLE TO
CEILINGS 2-3K FEET...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR BY 18Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THE EXITING WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES A TRAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR WITH SOME TRACE PRECIPITATION SUCH HAS BEEN SHOWING ON ABR
RADAR...A FEW REPORTING POINTS...AND DEPICTED ON THE HRRR RADAR
GRAPHICS. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY VERY FINE
FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS BUT MUST COVER FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN. OF COURSE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE STIFF
SIDE OR THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS IT IS SPIT OUT IN FORECASTS.
CLEARING LATER TODAY SHOULD BE DEFINITE BUT GRADUAL...VERY
GRADUAL EAST AND A BIT FASTER WEST...AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FIRST STOPS THE TRACE PRECIPITATION THEN EATS AWAY AT THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH EAST...A COUPLE DEGREES DIP THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES RISE...WITH WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY.
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD PICK UP STEAM BY THE START OF THE EVENING
AND THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY WELL BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE THOUGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHICH WILL SEE THE COMBO OF LATEST TO CLEAR...AND LATEST TO
SEE THE START OF A WEAK WARMING AND DRYING FLOW WHICH MAY START WEST
AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW AFTER COORDINATION BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOR KSUX MAY BE AN
AVIATION CONSIDERATION LATER
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING SNOW PACK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED
THE UPWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH H925
TEMPERATURES EASILY EXCEEDING 10C.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MIXY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR HIGHWAY 14.
AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR MID WEEK...FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE THAN THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE GEM. THE ECMWF
IS DEEPER WITH A GREATER FOCUS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES GOING MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WITH
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
OVER NORTHWEST IA UNTIL 09Z CEILINGS 1-3K FEET AND AREAS VSBYS
3-5SM/-SN. OTHERWISE OVER AREA CEILINGS 3-5K FEET VARIABLE TO
CEILINGS 2-3K FEET...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR BY 18Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL FEATURE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
CANADA...WITH ONE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES THIS MORNING. WINDS ALSO SHIFTING TO
SW. KBOX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWING 45 KT WINDS AT 3 KFT. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING...STILL WOULD
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS THE CONTINUING
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO MATCH UP WELL WITH
OBSERVED RADAR DATA. USED IT TO TWEAK POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED AT MOST
LOCATIONS. ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CT AND MA.
NEAR RECORD WARMTH...
INCREDIBLE WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN TEMPS 58-62 AT 5 AM! SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND MORNING OCCLUDED
FRONT. HOWEVER BLYR DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO
ABOUT H85 WITH TEMPS AROUND +1C AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER. THUS
TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD IN THE U50S TO L60S WITH A FEW M60S
POSSIBLE. PROBABLY FALLING SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS BUT CLOSE...SO
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
BOS 65/1930
PVD 69/1976
BDL 70/1976
ORH 64/1976
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
TRAVERSES NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. CAA RESULTS IN ENTIRE COLUMN TO COOL WHICH WILL SUPPORT
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY MINOR ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF WESTERN CT/MA. CAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* HIT OR MISS SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PRECIP POTENTIAL
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
POSITIVE PNA HAS KEPT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN AN ELONGATED TROUGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUT STILL DIFFER IN
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN AS
EVIDENCED BY SEPARATED ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CLUSTERING. FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT WAVE PASSING THROUGH
SUN-MON WILL BRING SNOW TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW THEN PROGRESSES
INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE AS MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND CONSEQUENTLY TOO WARM FOR
A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SNOW. HOWEVER CONTINUE TO WATCH A POTENTIAL
SYSTEM MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS...COULD SEE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY OVERNIGHT
AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO -13C. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF PVD/BOS. BECAUSE OF
THE COOLER START TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. HOWEVER WITH
LESS WIND AND CLEARING SKIES IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...APPEARS THAT WE WILL WARM SECTOR ONCE AGAIN AS 850 MB
TEMPS WARM TO 6C. SURFACE TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO 50F ON
SUNDAY...AND MID 50S BY MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR 60S ON MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...BUT CANT RULE IT OUT THANKS TO WESTERLY WIND.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT POINTING TO A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO TRENDED TOWARDS A CHC OF
SHOWERS...MORE OF THE HIT OF MISS VARIETY. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
SO THE TREND CAN CHANGE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. EC AND EC
ENSEMBLES SHOW A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. DEPENDING ON
WHAT SIDE OF THE LOW WE ARE ON WE COULD SEE WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
CMC/GFS SHOW ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER BY THURSDAY WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE WHICH IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE POSITIVE PNA AN
A TRENDING NEGATIVE NAO.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
TODAY...
IFR/MVFR WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR-VFR ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. SSE
WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 45 KT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
TONIGHT...
MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WEST LATE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KBOS TERMINAL...DRYING TREND ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO
MVFR-VFR. SSE WINDS SHIFT TO SW...NOT QUITE AS GUSTY WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 35 KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...IMPROVING AND DRYING TRENDS THIS MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SLACKEN A BIT.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR
20-30 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE SW ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
TODAY...
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE OUTERMOST COASTAL WATERS EAST OF CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET THIS MORNING. WIND GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM SSE TO
SW WITH SPEEDS LOWERING A BIT...BUT STILL IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE
OF 25 TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE BUT VSBY IMPROVES.
TONIGHT...
SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT EARLY SHIFTS TO WEST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
END SMALL CRAFT ADV LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS WIND GUSTS NEAR
30- 34 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR BOTH WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX. SCA MAY
BE DROPPED DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING CLOSE TO
25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE SEAS
AND SWELL INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STILL A LOW RISK FOR A FEW AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HOWEVER
THINK THE THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AS CORE OF
STRONG WINDS MOVING OFFSHORE A BIT FASTER. HIGH TIDE NOT UNTIL 9
AM/10 AM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. CURRENT OBSERVED SURGE
VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT. GIVEN WINDS SLACKEN TOWARD
HIGH TIDE ALONG WITH PRESSURE RISES SURGE VALUES SHOULD DECREASE
TO ABOUT 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. THIS WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BUT LARGE SEAS OF 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE MAY RESULT IN SOME
SPLASH OVER IN SPOTS. MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS MAY BE IN THE
BUZZARDS BAY COMMUNITIES AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN SSW THIS MORNING
PRECLUDING WATER LEVEL FROM DRAINING SEAWARD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
GREATEST SURGE/WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE
THINKING MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
NEVERTHELESS CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE WITH
HIGHEST RISK AREAS IN AND ALONG BUZZARDS BAY.
AS FOR PAWCATUCK RIVER IN WESTERLY...GIVEN HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED
AND CURRENT GAGE READING SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND ALONG WITH HIGH
TIDE STILL 5 HRS AWAY...THINKING THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS FAIRLY
LOW.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
957 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Upper trough affiliated with yesterday`s storm system was
dropping southward through central Illinois this morning, and had
produced some light snow with it. Bloomington airport recently
dropped down to a mile in light snow, but the snow band will be
shifting south soon. Have updated the forecast to add a mention of
flurries over most areas southeast of the Illinois River through
midday as the trough shifts southward.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing some thinning of the
clouds to our north, more of a mid/high cloud deck vs the
widespread stratocumulus along and south of the trough. RAP model
humidity plots suggest the lower stuff could start filling in
again, and there is indeed more coming down from central Wisconsin
and southern Minnesota. While there may be some filtered sunshine
at times, net effect will be mostly cloudy skies persisting much
of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Storm system that brought the strong winds, rain and/or snow to much
of central and southeast Illinois is quickly pulling away from the
area. The center of the surface low is expected to lift northeast
from the eastern Great Lakes this morning to the tip of Maine by
this evening. A trof rotating around the back side of the departing
system will help keep wrap around clouds across the area today, and
a few light snow showers or flurries are possible near the Indiana
border. Little or no additional snow accumulation is expected. It
will still be breezy today, with winds gusting over 20 mph at times,
but nowhere near as windy as yesterday. Temperatures should top out
from 35 to 40 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Strong 986 mb low pressure over eastern Lake Ontario, will lift
ne into the Saint Lawrence Seaway this evening, while 1031 mb high
pressure over the northern high plains settles SSE across the
central and southern plains. Approaching high pressure ridge will
weaken brisk nw winds today to between 5 and 10 mph during overnight.
This should also decrease the low clouds from the SW during
tonight as skies become partly cloudy. Cooler lows tonight in the
low to mid 20s which is pretty close to normals for late February.
High pressure ridges into IL Friday morning and then shifts SE of
IL across the Ohio river valley by sunset Friday, while starting a
WSW flow around 10 mph. But an upper level trof diving SE across
the Midwest and into IL by sunset Friday will increase clouds
again and keep seasonably cool highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s, with coolest readings over eastern IL. This should pass
through IL dry with very limited moisture and then clouds to
decrease from nw to SE Friday night as upper trof shifts SE
across the Ohio river valley. Lows Friday night of 25-30F.
Milder temperatures in store this weekend with upper level flow
becoming more zonal allowing Pacific air into IL. Increasing SW
winds to 10-15 mph Saturday and 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph on
Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 50s Sat and 59-65F on Sunday. A fair
amount of sunshine still expected Saturday as upper level ridges
shifts east toward IL and still under influence of surface high
pressure in the southeast states. 00Z models have trended further
north with a fairly strong surface low pressure tracking eastward
out of northern plains across southern/central parts of WI and lower
MI on Sunday. With further north track, central IL appears drier
and milder on Sunday with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy
toward Sunday afternoon. A cold front passes southeast across
central IL Sunday evening and brings a chance of light rain
showers, but better chances of rain and heavier qpf is well ne of
central IL closer to low pressure system in the Great Lakes.
Dry conditions return later Sunday night and Monday with Pacific
high pressure moving into the mid MS river valley. A bit cooler
highs of 50-55F on Monday. Still dry Monday night over the area.
Then a stronger southern stream storm system digs into north Texas
by sunset Tue and ejects ne into the Ohio river valley Wed or Wed
night depending on model. Have good chance of rain Tue/Wed with
northern areas possibly seeing a chance of light snow too late Tue
night and Wed morning and over most of central IL Wed night. Highs
Tue range from upper 40s/lower 50s north to upper 50s southeast IL.
Cooler highs Wed range from around 40F north to lower 50s south of I-
70. Highs by next Thu cool into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Northwest winds will gust near 20 kts today on the back side of
yesterday`s storm system. The gusts will fall off tonight, with
winds remaining out of the northwest.
Widespread low CIGs will prevail through the 12Z TAF valid time
across the central Illinois terminals. These CIGs should
initially be low end VFR...but will likely fall to MVFR by late
afternoon or tonight in the wake of a trof of low pressure. A few
flurries or light snow showers are possible today near KCMI,
which is closest to the departing storm system, but these should
have little impact on CIGs or VSBYs.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
540 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Radar trends over the past several hours have been for a weakening
of the light to moderate snow shower activity. Latest water vapor
imagery and RAP analysis showing weak upper wave still upstream but
models are consistent with available moisture diminishing with time.
Will keep a mention of flurries into the early morning hours in the
far east but continued drying should bring this to an end by noon.
Mixing increasing into the midday should keep some lower cloud in
place and cold air advection from the overnight hours bringing
slightly cooler temps than Wednesday. Weak surface ridge passes
through tonight but winds picking up aloft again overnight and
some high cloud should keep fog in check.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge across the west coast
of the US will move east into the central Rockies. The longer wave
length upper level trough across the eastern US will begin to fill.
The central and southern plains will continue with northwest flow at
and mid and upper levels. Northwest winds at 850mb will become
westerly across eastern KS. This will result in WAA as 850mb
temperatures warm to 3 to 5 deg C. Deep mixing will allow High
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s. The surface winds will
only be 5 to 15 MPH from the southwest, thus I do not for see an
elevated fire danger.
Saturday, The upper level ridge across the west central US will
shift east across plains during the day. A lee surface trough will
deepen across the central and southern high plains which will cause
the low-level winds across central and eastern KS to increase
through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Southwest winds
will be 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH during the late morning
hours then back more to the south during the afternoon hours. WAA at
850mb will cause 850mb temperatures to increase to 11 to 14 DEG C
during the afternoon hours. The boundary layer should mix to at
least 850mb, which will allow high temperatures to reach the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the central plains Saturday night which will bring a weak
cold front southeast across the CWA. The low-levels look too dry for
any precipitation ahead of the H5 trough.
Despite low-level CAA and northwest surface winds, 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 4 to 8 DEC C range and
afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the mid to upper 60s.
An upper level trough will dig onshore across the Pacific northwest
and dig southeast into western CO and northeast AZ. A lee surface
trough will deepen across western KS and surface winds across the
CWA will become southerly. Highs on Monday may be a bit warmer than
the forecast, as the ECMWF shows better WAA at 850mb, my current
forecast have highs in the mid lower 60s but highs may reach a few
degrees warmer as long as we do not see high cloudiness spread
across the CWA.
Monday night through Wednesday,
Both the ECMWF and GFS model solutions are closer in the track of
the upper level trough digging southeast from western CO into the
Texas Panhandle then east across southern OK and north TX. The 00Z
GFS run is now more progressive than the ECMWF, moving the upper low
across southern OK into eastern AR by 12Z WED which would bring an
end to the precipitation Tuesday night. The ECMWF is more amplified
with the upper low and slowly shifts the upper low east across OK
into northeast AR by Wednesday evening.
Rain and potentially isolated evaluated thunderstorms will develop
Monday night as deeper moisture advects northward ahead of the
surface low over southwest KS. Temperatures will only drop into the
40s but will slowly rise through the night. Periods of rain will
continue through the day as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the CWA. Temperature aloft and at the surface may cool enough
for the rain to mix with snow across north central KS. Highs will
occur early in the day with temperatures steady to slowly falling
through the 40s into the upper 30s across the northern counties by
late afternoon.
Both models show a TROWAL region developing within the deformation
zone to the north and northwest of the upper low across central and
eastern KS Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF has colder
vertical temperature profiles which may cause the mixed rain and
snow to change over to snow across much of the CWA through the
night. The snow or rain snow mix will continue into Wednesday. It is
too early to say how much snow the CWA could potentially get but if
the ECMWF verifies, some areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
may receive several inches of heavy west snow. If the GFS were to
verify, then there would only be light accumulations. Temperatures
on Wednesday should warm into the lower to mid 40s, thus any snow
will change back to rain and melt through the day Wednesday.
Thursday, the upper low will push east across KY and TN and skies
should clear. There`s not much cold air behind the upper trough, so
temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 50s if there is no
significant snow cover across portions of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Low cloud heights and timing are the main challenges. Upstream
observations showing a wide variety of cloud, but TOP and FOE look
to be under a steady stream of MVFR stratus through the next few-
several hours. Increasing daytime mixing should still bring at
least scattered MVFR cloud to MHK and kept a BKN deck given
increasing trends to the NW. Shallow nature of moisture should
still bring VFR conditions by 19Z. There looks to be enough mixing
to keep visibilities VFR late in the forecast but this will need
to be watched.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
There continues to be a concern for red flag conditions Saturday
as models continue to show a warm and breezy day. At this point
min RH values are forecast to be between 20 and 30 percent as south
winds gust around 25 to 35 MPH through the afternoon. Therefore the
potential exist for a critical range land fire danger and the
possible issuance of a red flag warning Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1017 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. SIDE ROADS
REMAIN ICY HOWEVER.
920 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH UNTIL NOON.
840 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DRAMATIC TEMP GRADIENT FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET,
WITH LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS HAVE EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT. FOGGY IN SOME AREAS
AND HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
ALLOW WINTER HEADLINES TO CONTINUE INTO 10AM GIVEN THE TREACHEROUS
ROADS, ESP SIDE ROADS. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ARE ABOVE
FREEZING NOW THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR STAYING THRU TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SOME
SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
936 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST 14ZS
MESONET. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING
WHEN WE MIX OUT AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION...WHICH RESULTS IN RAPID
JUMPS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE RECORD HIGH AT PORTLAND /51F
SET IN 1985/ HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN. THE RECORD AT CONCORD / 60F
SET IN 1984/ WILL BE CHALLENGED AS WELL.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MIDCOAST REGION.
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...HOWEVER NOT WITH THE INTENSITY OF LAST NIGHT.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING A WARM AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH RECORD WARM TEMPS. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE TRENDS
OFF THE HRRR MODEL. THE LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO THE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDCOAST
AREA. RECORD WARM TEMPS WILL START OUT THE DAY BUT WILL COOL SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND FRI RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING A RETURN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR WITH LCL LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL
GUST OVR 40 KT UNTIL 15Z THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LLWS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
923 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH UNTIL NOON.
840 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DRAMATIC TEMP GRADIENT FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET,
WITH LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS HAVE EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT. FOGGY IN SOME AREAS
AND HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
ALLOW WINTER HEADLINES TO CONTINUE INTO 10AM GIVEN THE TREACHEROUS
ROADS, ESP SIDE ROADS. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ARE ABOVE
FREEZING NOW THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR STAYING THRU TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SOME
SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
847 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
840 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DRAMATIC TEMP GRADIENT FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET,
WITH LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS HAVE EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT. FOGGY IN SOME AREAS
AND HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
ALLOW WINTER HEADLINES TO CONTINUE INTO 10AM GIVEN THE TREACHEROUS
ROADS, ESP SIDE ROADS. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ARE ABOVE
FREEZING NOW THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR STAYING THRU TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SOME
SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
724 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING
A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
RECORD LEVELS TODAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MIDCOAST REGION.
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...HOWEVER NOT WITH THE INTENSITY OF LAST NIGHT.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING A WARM AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH RECORD WARM TEMPS. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE TRENDS
OFF THE HRRR MODEL. THE LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO THE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDCOAST
AREA. RECORD WARM TEMPS WILL START OUT THE DAY BUT WILL COOL SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND FRI RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING A RETURN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR WITH LCL LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL
GUST OVR 40 KT UNTIL 15Z THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LLWS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
644 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PRODUCED
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING W/SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS. ATTM, NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE WERE RECEIVED. TEMPS HAVE
SOARED WELL THROUGH THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FURTHER N, TEMPS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S
W/BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT WERE THAT
ROAD CONDITIONS STILL QUITE TREACHEROUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ST.JOHN VALLEY AND THE ALLAGASH. WILL HANG ON TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS SOME ICING STILL OCCURRING. ACROSS THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE
ISLE REGION DOWN TO HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET, WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM GIVEN SIDE ROADS COULD STILL BE ICY W/SLUSH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR W/HEAVY RAINFALL, LLWS AND CONVECTION ON TAP
ESPECIALLY KHUL TO KBHB. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE W/CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. IFR STAYING FOR TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SOME SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002>006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1004 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
UPDATED TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS WITH TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST.
THINK A BRIEF PERIOD -SN IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER OVER NW WI WITH THIS BAND SO HAVE
TRENDED THE BAND OF POPS LOWER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT A
MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE MAIN SNOW BAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CURRENT RUC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH FALLING 850HPA TEMPS. THE COOLING ALOFT HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...HOLDING OFF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AS THE LAPSE RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN RECEIVING FLURRIES TO A
DUSTING...AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SEEING
AN INCH OR TWO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND IRON RANGE AREAS AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DIFFICULT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/DURATION OF
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 40S. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND ELSEWHERE UP TO AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN TEMPS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL COME OUT OF CENTRAL
MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS HAD THE MORE POTENT SOLUTION...IN TONIGHTS 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKER...AS IS THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY ENDING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER- MOVING SUNDAY SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS...LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY...BUT THEN WARMING
RIGHT UP AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY. WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS. TONIGHT AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WHILE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 12 32 27 / 30 10 0 0
INL 26 5 34 25 / 30 0 0 0
BRD 31 16 36 26 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 31 12 32 25 / 20 30 0 0
ASX 30 12 33 28 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
548 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CURRENT RUC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH FALLING 850HPA TEMPS. THE COOLING ALOFT HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...HOLDING OFF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AS THE LAPSE RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN RECEIVING FLURRIES TO A
DUSTING...AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SEEING
AN INCH OR TWO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND IRON RANGE AREAS AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DIFFICULT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/DURATION OF
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 40S. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND ELSEWHERE UP TO AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN TEMPS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL COME OUT OF CENTRAL
MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS HAD THE MORE POTENT SOLUTION...IN TONIGHTS 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKER...AS IS THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY ENDING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER- MOVING SUNDAY SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS...LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY...BUT THEN WARMING
RIGHT UP AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY. WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS. TONIGHT AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WHILE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 12 32 27 / 10 0 0 0
INL 26 5 34 25 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 31 16 36 26 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 31 12 32 25 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 30 12 33 28 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
512 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a compact vort max
propagating around the periphery of the upper level trough moving
through the Great Lakes region. This shot of energy and associated
isentropic lift will bring a few light snow showers into the western
half of the CWA this morning. Bufkit soundings have moistened up the
low levels compared to previous soundings. The HRRR also supports
some light precip through about 19Z. As temperatures rise this
morning, any precip may change to more of a rain/snow mix or light
rain showers. Winds will become gusty on the backside of this system
and cloud cover looks to remain through the day before clearing late
this afternoon and evening.
Fire weather concerns are expected this weekend as temperatures warm
into the upper 60s and maybe low 70s. Southwest winds will allow
relative humidities to potentially drop into the 20s and 30s in a
set-up that looks similar to last weeks critical fire weather days.
With limited moisture this month, fuels are are dry and any fire
that ignites will burn readily.
Focus then turns to precip chances late in the weekend and then
again early in the work week. A shortwave trough will swing through
Sunday, but with limited moisture in place best precip chances look
to remain well north of the region. The best chances for precip will
focus on a trough diving south out of the intermountain west Monday
or Tuesday. This system will deepen as it ejects into the plains,
but long-range models are still having difficulty with the timing,
track, and overall strength of the system. Depending on these
factors, some locations in the CWA could see some spring snow
while other locations see some thunder.
.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 507 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A shortwave trough rotating around the larger parent system across
the Great Lakes has brought some light snow and flurries to the
terminals this morning. This showery activity will likely continue
through 17-18Z before ending completely. MVFR cigs have moved in with
the snow but cigs should gradually increase into the afternoon with
clearing skies in the evening. Northwest winds will become gusty
again this afternoon before becoming light tonight. Winds will
gradually back around to more southwesterly by tomorrow morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
943 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY, AND EVENTUALLY OFF
INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH LIGHTER THAN THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THEN PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY FRIDAY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF NORTHERN VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 928 AM EST THURSDAY...LOTS OF VARIETY GOING ON ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. CLOSELY WATCHING THE RIVERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE SOME TRANSIENT ICE JAMS ALONG WITH
THE HIGH WATER FLOWS ARE CAUSING SOME ISSUES. AT LEAST THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED, SO LESS WORRY FOR SMALLER STREAMS.
SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL STILL BE ON THE RISE.
RADAR SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE ALBANY NY AREA.
HRRR, BTV6 AND RAP CAPTURE THIS FEATURE WELL. EXPECT IT TO ONLY
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD AND EXPAND IN AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. A
LITTLE MORE STRATIFORM LOOK TO THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE
WEST ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE BUFFALO NY AREA AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. AS IT FINALLY PASSES BY EARLY AFTERNOON, COLDER
AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN RESULTING IN A CHANGE OF PRECIPTATION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. USED A MIX OF NAM AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS AS
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO CREATE THE
PRECIPTIATION-TYPE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE
TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE MESSY, AND A
LITTLE BIT OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. DRY SLOT ACROSS VERMONT HAS
ALLOWED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
BTV HAS SO FAR REACHED 53F. MEANWHILE LOTS OF 34-40F READINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AND IN EASTERN VERMONT, PROTECTED
VALLEYS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S, BUT JUST A FEW MILES AWAY WE
SEE TEMPERATURES OF 48 TO 52F. IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN START TO SLOWLY FALL. HOWEVER
SOME PLACES MAY SEE QUICK SPIKES UP AND DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES AS
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR GETS DISPLACED AND MOVES AROUND. I`VE TRIED MY
BEST TO DEPICT ALL OF THAT VARIABILITY IN THE GRIDS, BUT HONESTLY,
I WOULDN`T BET MONEY ON ALL OF THOSE DETAILS VERIFYING PERFECTLY.
HAVE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (<1") FOR SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND EVENTUALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS AS THE COLDER AIR FINALLY FILTERS IN AND WE START SEEING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN VERMONT, BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A PARTIALLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 319 AM EST THURSDAY...THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVING TWO ADDITIONAL THREATS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION
AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM BY
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PRESENT A CHALLENGING PERIOD
OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTING AS THE POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
WAFFLING NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TYPICAL NON-DIURNAL TRENDS ETC. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF MODEST CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
POLAR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH BY
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS CLIPPER ENERGY
TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. THUS THE IDEA OF A
SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES, THE POLAR FRONT WILL SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION YET
AGAIN WITH SOME BACKSIDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE SOME
SCT FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SIGNS THAT YET ANOTHER INLAND RUNNER TYPE
OF SYSTEM OF SOUTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WILL PHASE WITH ITS NORTHERN
COUNTERPART AND TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS OR NEARBY
ENVIRONS BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD BRING A HIGHER
THREAT OF MIXED PCPN AND POSSIBLE RAIN TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK AMONG
THIS MORNING`S DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WILL LEAN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OFFERING DECENT CHANCES OF FRONT END LIGHT SNOWS
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS LINGERS
INITIALLY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS ALL SITES MVFR AS
PRECIPITATION FILLS BACK IN THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT KMSS WHERE IFR
WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 00Z RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD REDUCING VSBY TO IFR BEFORE ENDING TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON,
AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KMSS.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 18Z FRI...IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR. SLOWEST TO OCCUR
AT MPV AND SLK.
18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV
AND MSS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1201 AM EST THURSDAY...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT THROUGH 545 AM DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. LATEST RADAR AND GAGE INFORMATION
SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE HALF AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO MUCH
OF VERMONT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. WITH THE GROUND BEING RATHER
DEEPLY FROZEN DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER, MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS
NOT BEING ABSORBED AND IS RUNNING DIRECTLY OFF INTO AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS.
SHARP RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND SOME
MAINSTEM RIVERS. WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
MANY WATERSHEDS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR BANKFULL OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
906 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE ONGOING FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE
MID MORNING UPDATE. THE SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
JUST BE IN AND AROUND THE SNOWBELT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE
REST OF TODAY STILL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR SO IN THE WEST TO
2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY INTO MIDDAY THE WILL SLOWLY FALL AFTER 2 PM. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AS THE SNOW GETS
DRIER AND MORE POWDERY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT. NOT EXPECTING A BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS THE
INVERSION WILL LOWER AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST. THE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION WILL BE THE WILD CARD...AND THAT
SHOULD WORK EAST INTO NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE. COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT OF
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 4 MORE INCHES INLAND NW PA. A FEW
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SEEDING OF THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WHICH COULD
PROLONG THE EVENT UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP ALOFT BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES... A SURE SIGN OF SPRING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE RATHER
WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
SNOW. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTIONS THE CHANGE OVER WILL BE LATE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NE OHIO/NW PA.
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS JUST A BRIEF
SHOT BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A TIGHTLY PACKED BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL STALL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES AND LARGE CHANCE FOR ERROR. 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
WHICH COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT DAY 7
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF SNOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING IN NW OHIO BY
AROUND 18Z AND DECREASING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE MORE STEADY SNOW ARRIVES WITH LOW IFR AT
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED AT CLE BETWEEN 16-20Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT ERI WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT CLE/YNG.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY
NE OHIO INTO NW PA. NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO
EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO NEAR 30
KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING...THEN EASTERN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN BY
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX...TAKING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PULLING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ011>014-023-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ003-006-017.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
524 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THE EXITING WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES A TRAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR WITH SOME TRACE PRECIPITATION SUCH HAS BEEN SHOWING ON ABR
RADAR...A FEW REPORTING POINTS...AND DEPICTED ON THE HRRR RADAR
GRAPHICS. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY VERY FINE
FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS BUT MUST COVER FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN. OF COURSE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE STIFF
SIDE OR THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS IT IS SPIT OUT IN FORECASTS.
CLEARING LATER TODAY SHOULD BE DEFINITE BUT GRADUAL...VERY
GRADUAL EAST AND A BIT FASTER WEST...AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FIRST STOPS THE TRACE PRECIPITATION THEN EATS AWAY AT THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH EAST...A COUPLE DEGREES DIP THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES RISE...WITH WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY.
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD PICK UP STEAM BY THE START OF THE EVENING
AND THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY WELL BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE THOUGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHICH WILL SEE THE COMBO OF LATEST TO CLEAR...AND LATEST TO
SEE THE START OF A WEAK WARMING AND DRYING FLOW WHICH MAY START WEST
AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW AFTER COORDINATION BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOR KSUX MAY BE AN
AVIATION CONSIDERATION LATER
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING SNOW PACK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED
THE UPWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH H925
TEMPERATURES EASILY EXCEEDING 10C.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MIXY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR HIGHWAY 14.
AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR MID WEEK...FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE THAN THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE GEM. THE ECMWF
IS DEEPER WITH A GREATER FOCUS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES GOING MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WITH
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THROUGH 16Z CEILINGS 1-3K FT WITH LOCAL -SN/-FZDZ. 16Z-20Z
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AFT 20Z VFR EXCEPT LOCAL VISIBILITIES
3-5SM/BR IN NORTHWEST IA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1259 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN...THE RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FOR TONIGHT.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TOMORROW INTO
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EST...STEADY RAINFALL HAS RETURNED TO THE
REGION...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THERE ARE EVEN SOME BURSTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...AND A
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
REISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
3KM HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THERE SHOULD
START TO BE A DRYING TREND TOWARDS THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT...THE PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE JUST A COATING...AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING... TEMPS WILL BE EITHER STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 40S /30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH...IT
LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS ELEVATIONS OVER 2500 FEET). SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS MIGHT EVEN RECEIVE A DUSTING OF SNOW...BUT THAT
WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION NOT THE NORM.
IT TURNS QUITE A BIT COLDER VIA A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND
10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...TEENS ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COLDER.
FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MORE DRYING
ALOFT AND THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYLONIC SHOULD LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY
AND COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
30-35 IN THE VALLEYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A GRADUAL REDUCING IN THE
BREEZE. LOWS DOWN TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...TEENS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...THE FLOW WILL
TURN FROM NW TO SW. IT REMAINS DRY WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES...BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THAT
WILL TRANSLATED TO 35-40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS
WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
BE DRIVEN BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER MILD OVER
MOST OF OUR AREAS...50-55 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.
IT WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW AGAIN MAINLY TO NORTHERN
AREAS.
BY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUED IN MAINLY NORTHERN
AREAS. IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S SOUTH...30S NORTH.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SLIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL TURN RATHER MILD...50-55 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW
AGAIN MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS.
BY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUED IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS.
IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
SOUTH...30S NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
MOIST AIR AND INCREASING THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY THAT MIGHT BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF
RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF RAIN IN THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE REGION. THE WIND HAS SHIFTED TO WEST TO NORTHWEST BUT UPPER
ENERGY IS SUPPORTING THE AREAS OF RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR TO
BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS OCCUR IN AND NEAR THE AREAS OF
RAIN...WHILE OUTSIDE OF THE STEADIER RAIN...JUST INTO THE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET. SO...INDICATING
INTERVALS OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z WHEN THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD EXIT EAST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
AREA BETWEEN 22Z-02Z...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. BEYOND 02Z-05Z...CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE STEADY AROUND 10 KT...BUT SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS AFTN...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL BASIN AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW POINT LOCATIONS MAY LOCALLY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
MOST RIVERS/STREAMS ARE CRESTING OR WILL BE CRESTING THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH TODAY/S RAINFALL AND SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A SLOW RECEDING OF WATER LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW RIVER POINTS CONTINUE TO BE AT/NEAR FLOOD
STAGE...ESP OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND SEE OUR RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON THESE.
WITH MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TONIGHT...THESE RIVER POINTS
SHOULD BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
ALLOW RIVERS/STREAMS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE EVEN FURTHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1118 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Upper trough affiliated with yesterday`s storm system was
dropping southward through central Illinois this morning, and had
produced some light snow with it. Bloomington airport recently
dropped down to a mile in light snow, but the snow band will be
shifting south soon. Have updated the forecast to add a mention of
flurries over most areas southeast of the Illinois River through
midday as the trough shifts southward.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing some thinning of the
clouds to our north, more of a mid/high cloud deck vs the
widespread stratocumulus along and south of the trough. RAP model
humidity plots suggest the lower stuff could start filling in
again, and there is indeed more coming down from central Wisconsin
and southern Minnesota. While there may be some filtered sunshine
at times, net effect will be mostly cloudy skies persisting much
of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Storm system that brought the strong winds, rain and/or snow to much
of central and southeast Illinois is quickly pulling away from the
area. The center of the surface low is expected to lift northeast
from the eastern Great Lakes this morning to the tip of Maine by
this evening. A trof rotating around the back side of the departing
system will help keep wrap around clouds across the area today, and
a few light snow showers or flurries are possible near the Indiana
border. Little or no additional snow accumulation is expected. It
will still be breezy today, with winds gusting over 20 mph at times,
but nowhere near as windy as yesterday. Temperatures should top out
from 35 to 40 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Strong 986 mb low pressure over eastern Lake Ontario, will lift
ne into the Saint Lawrence Seaway this evening, while 1031 mb high
pressure over the northern high plains settles SSE across the
central and southern plains. Approaching high pressure ridge will
weaken brisk nw winds today to between 5 and 10 mph during overnight.
This should also decrease the low clouds from the SW during
tonight as skies become partly cloudy. Cooler lows tonight in the
low to mid 20s which is pretty close to normals for late February.
High pressure ridges into IL Friday morning and then shifts SE of
IL across the Ohio river valley by sunset Friday, while starting a
WSW flow around 10 mph. But an upper level trof diving SE across
the Midwest and into IL by sunset Friday will increase clouds
again and keep seasonably cool highs in the upper 30s and lower
40s, with coolest readings over eastern IL. This should pass
through IL dry with very limited moisture and then clouds to
decrease from nw to SE Friday night as upper trof shifts SE
across the Ohio river valley. Lows Friday night of 25-30F.
Milder temperatures in store this weekend with upper level flow
becoming more zonal allowing Pacific air into IL. Increasing SW
winds to 10-15 mph Saturday and 15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph on
Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 50s Sat and 59-65F on Sunday. A fair
amount of sunshine still expected Saturday as upper level ridges
shifts east toward IL and still under influence of surface high
pressure in the southeast states. 00Z models have trended further
north with a fairly strong surface low pressure tracking eastward
out of northern plains across southern/central parts of WI and lower
MI on Sunday. With further north track, central IL appears drier
and milder on Sunday with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy
toward Sunday afternoon. A cold front passes southeast across
central IL Sunday evening and brings a chance of light rain
showers, but better chances of rain and heavier qpf is well ne of
central IL closer to low pressure system in the Great Lakes.
Dry conditions return later Sunday night and Monday with Pacific
high pressure moving into the mid MS river valley. A bit cooler
highs of 50-55F on Monday. Still dry Monday night over the area.
Then a stronger southern stream storm system digs into north Texas
by sunset Tue and ejects ne into the Ohio river valley Wed or Wed
night depending on model. Have good chance of rain Tue/Wed with
northern areas possibly seeing a chance of light snow too late Tue
night and Wed morning and over most of central IL Wed night. Highs
Tue range from upper 40s/lower 50s north to upper 50s southeast IL.
Cooler highs Wed range from around 40F north to lower 50s south of I-
70. Highs by next Thu cool into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Ceilings have largely lifted into the low VFR range or will be
doing so through midday. Some thinning of the clouds is possible
this afternoon with ceilings potentially scattering out at times,
but clouds expected to thicken up again early this evening and
lower back into the 3000-3500 foot range. Some more substantial
scattering out of the clouds is on tap after midnight in most of
central Illinois, but the ceilings may linger until closer to
sunrise across east central parts of the state.
The gusty northwest winds will continue for a couple more hours,
before settling down as an upper trough pushes south of central
Illinois.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER. A NICE WARM
UP IS EXPECTED BUT THE RECENT SNOWPACK WILL TEMPER THE WARMTH INTIALLY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN THE NORTH.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKEND
IS FOR HIGHS INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND 50S FOR SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
A MUCH QUIETER SHORT TERM AS SYNOPTIC SNOW COMES TO AN END AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING SOUTH AND SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DONE BEFORE
00Z. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWING LAKE EFFECT BANDS SETTING UP AROUND 00Z
BUT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING.
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BRING A
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LAKE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY RISE TO
AROUND 5-6KFT FOR JUST A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 4KFT REST OF NIGHT. TRAJECTORIES AND DGZ FAVORABLE
BUT INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED WITH DELTA T/S 13-14C. HRRR AND RUC13
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT ALL DAY SHOWING LIGHT BANDS DEVELOPING
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF. GIVEN RADAR SIGNALS ALREADY HAVE SIDED
TOWARD THE HIRES GUIDANCE. ARW-WRF HAS DONE WELL THIS SEASON WITH
LES BANDS AND BLENDED IT WITH LATEST RUC FOR FORECAST. BANDS SHOWN
BY MOST MODELS TO PENETRATE RATHER FAR INLAND AND DOWN TO CENTRAL IN
AND INTO OHIO WITH HELP FROM SHORT WAVE. THEREFORE CARRIED LOW POPS
ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN BORDER. STILL THINK ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH
OR LESS GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS BUT ISOLATED 2 POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTH IF A STRONGER BAND DEVELOPS IN BRIEF BUT PRIME WINDOW.
OTHERWISE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE IN SHORT TERM. POSSIBILITY OF
NORTHEAST BEING CLEAR AFTER SHORT WAVE WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5
KNOTS OR SO LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK. CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD OR
BELOW LOWER END OF MOS. ALSO KEPT HIGHS IN LOWER END FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
WARM UP WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INITIALLY
INFLUENCED BY RIPENING AND SLOWLY MELTING SNOWPACK. AM HESITANT TO
INCREASE TEMPS TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY WHERE 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
CURRENTLY RESIDES AND AT LEAST 2 THAW/FREEZE CYCLES TO OCCUR BEFORE
WE STAY ABOVE FREEZING STARTING SATURDAY. HAVE ALLOWED HIGHS TO
REACH AT LEAST 40 ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMEST READINGS IN FAR
SOUTH. WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO PULL UP AT LEAST SOME GULF
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF DEEPER MSTR WILL
PHASES IN TIME WITH THE SYSTEM TO WARRANT EXPANDED LIKELY OR EVEN
CAT POPS SO HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY UNTOUCHED. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPE...ALL LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE SEEN INTO SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
INFLUENCE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT AS MAIN FOCUS YET
ANOTHER WAVE IN A VERY ACTIVE FLOW ENTERS THE NW STATES AND THEN
BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS VARY ON HANDLING WITH ECMWF
BRINGING A OPEN BUT EVENTUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVING THROUGH
VS GFS CUTTING OFF A DEEP UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS MI. LOTS OF
SPECULATION WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS ON THE AREA...BUT GIVEN NOTED
DIFFERENCES...PERIOD OF INTEREST PAST DAY 5 AND CRITICAL THERMAL
PROFILES/SFC LOW TRACK ALL IN QUESTIONS...HAVE TO CONSIDER JUST ABOUT
ANY FORM OF PRECIP AND WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THIS JUNCTURE FROM
FROZEN/FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE NOT
LIKELY TO INCREASE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF INTEREST
BECOMES SAMPLED IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016
IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
REMNANTS OF WINTER STORM PULL AWAY. SNOW HAS ALREADY ENDED AT KSBN
AND WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2 AT KFWA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL HOLD UNTIL EVENING WITH DROP OFF TO AROUND OR LESS THAN
10 KNOTS ENDING ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
ONE CHANGE IN TAFS FOR KSBN WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY
THIS EVENING AS HI RES MODELS SHOWING ONE OR MORE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW BANDS POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE
REGION. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST OPTION TO
HANDLE BEING A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
317 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LITTLE OF CONCERN TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF CLOUDS. MID LEVEL VORT LOBE
CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN THE MID MS VALLEY BUT ANY ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION IS ALREADY PAST IA. UPSTREAM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SHORT WAVE
IS PRODUCING A FAINT REFLECTION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND WHILE THE
FORCING WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE AS IT REACHES IA EARLY FRI MORNING
STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. LIKELY
JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE
STRATUS TRENDS WITH PATCHY HOLES PASSING BY THIS EVENING...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGESTING MORE GENERAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL RIDGE CROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STAYED A TOUCH
OVER MOS WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT FOR AWHILE.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
FEW CONCERNS IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. HRRR AND OTHER
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH A PORTION
OF FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BREAK UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL MODERATE AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TRANSITIONS EAST INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE H850
TEMPERATURES RISING TO +11C BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH MIXING AT LEAST
TAPPING INTO 8 TO 10C AIR BY LATE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH DURING THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARING THE I80 CORRIDOR...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
MILD START TO THE DAY WILL HELP HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35
TO 40 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DISPLACE THE SLIGHT COLD
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RENEWED WARM
UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...MODELS CONTINUE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. TODAYS CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE TRACK
MAY BE FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO MODEL RUNS...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ADVERSE WINTER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY AND
MODELS INHERENTLY STRUGGLE TO REACH A CORRECT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME
RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE MORE
NORTHWEST DRIFT IN THE MODELS THE PAST 12 HOURS THOUGH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A MORE WOUND UP STORM THAN
THE EURO AT THIS TIME DUE TO FASTER INGESTION OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR...IT ALSO HAS STRONGER WINDS AND MORE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AXIS/STRENGTH
/TRACK IS CURRENTLY ALSO POOR. THE GENERAL TREND FOR BOTH THE
GFS/EURO OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY. WILL MENTION IN UPDATED HWO THIS AFTERNOON
AND PASS ONTO SUCCEEDING SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS MAINLY PLUS
2KFT EXIST OVER IA AND UPSTREAM INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. MADE SOME
ATTEMPT TO TIME ONE OF THE BREAKS CURRENTLY OVER MN AT NRN SITES
/KMCW/KALO/ BUT OTHERWISE CARRIED PROLONGED PERIOD OF 2-3KFT CIGS
IN TAFS UNTIL CLEARING LIKELY OCCURS FRI MORNING. BREAKS COULD
OCCUR ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT THERE YET. MINOR
NW GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE SUBSIDING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1124 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Radar trends over the past several hours have been for a weakening
of the light to moderate snow shower activity. Latest water vapor
imagery and RAP analysis showing weak upper wave still upstream but
models are consistent with available moisture diminishing with time.
Will keep a mention of flurries into the early morning hours in the
far east but continued drying should bring this to an end by noon.
Mixing increasing into the midday should keep some lower cloud in
place and cold air advection from the overnight hours bringing
slightly cooler temps than Wednesday. Weak surface ridge passes
through tonight but winds picking up aloft again overnight and
some high cloud should keep fog in check.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge across the west coast
of the US will move east into the central Rockies. The longer wave
length upper level trough across the eastern US will begin to fill.
The central and southern plains will continue with northwest flow at
and mid and upper levels. Northwest winds at 850mb will become
westerly across eastern KS. This will result in WAA as 850mb
temperatures warm to 3 to 5 deg C. Deep mixing will allow High
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s. The surface winds will
only be 5 to 15 MPH from the southwest, thus I do not for see an
elevated fire danger.
Saturday, The upper level ridge across the west central US will
shift east across plains during the day. A lee surface trough will
deepen across the central and southern high plains which will cause
the low-level winds across central and eastern KS to increase
through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Southwest winds
will be 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH during the late morning
hours then back more to the south during the afternoon hours. WAA at
850mb will cause 850mb temperatures to increase to 11 to 14 DEG C
during the afternoon hours. The boundary layer should mix to at
least 850mb, which will allow high temperatures to reach the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the central plains Saturday night which will bring a weak
cold front southeast across the CWA. The low-levels look too dry for
any precipitation ahead of the H5 trough.
Despite low-level CAA and northwest surface winds, 850mb
temperatures will remain in the 4 to 8 DEC C range and
afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the mid to upper 60s.
An upper level trough will dig onshore across the Pacific northwest
and dig southeast into western CO and northeast AZ. A lee surface
trough will deepen across western KS and surface winds across the
CWA will become southerly. Highs on Monday may be a bit warmer than
the forecast, as the ECMWF shows better WAA at 850mb, my current
forecast have highs in the mid lower 60s but highs may reach a few
degrees warmer as long as we do not see high cloudiness spread
across the CWA.
Monday night through Wednesday,
Both the ECMWF and GFS model solutions are closer in the track of
the upper level trough digging southeast from western CO into the
Texas Panhandle then east across southern OK and north TX. The 00Z
GFS run is now more progressive than the ECMWF, moving the upper low
across southern OK into eastern AR by 12Z WED which would bring an
end to the precipitation Tuesday night. The ECMWF is more amplified
with the upper low and slowly shifts the upper low east across OK
into northeast AR by Wednesday evening.
Rain and potentially isolated evaluated thunderstorms will develop
Monday night as deeper moisture advects northward ahead of the
surface low over southwest KS. Temperatures will only drop into the
40s but will slowly rise through the night. Periods of rain will
continue through the day as a surface cold front pushes southeast
across the CWA. Temperature aloft and at the surface may cool enough
for the rain to mix with snow across north central KS. Highs will
occur early in the day with temperatures steady to slowly falling
through the 40s into the upper 30s across the northern counties by
late afternoon.
Both models show a TROWAL region developing within the deformation
zone to the north and northwest of the upper low across central and
eastern KS Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF has colder
vertical temperature profiles which may cause the mixed rain and
snow to change over to snow across much of the CWA through the
night. The snow or rain snow mix will continue into Wednesday. It is
too early to say how much snow the CWA could potentially get but if
the ECMWF verifies, some areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
may receive several inches of heavy west snow. If the GFS were to
verify, then there would only be light accumulations. Temperatures
on Wednesday should warm into the lower to mid 40s, thus any snow
will change back to rain and melt through the day Wednesday.
Thursday, the upper low will push east across KY and TN and skies
should clear. There`s not much cold air behind the upper trough, so
temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 50s if there is no
significant snow cover across portions of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
For the 18z TAFs, borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings will likely persist
through the afternoon hours before gradually scattering out late
this afternoon into early this evening. Gusty northwest winds
will quickly diminish this evening and become light as they back
to the southwest overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
There continues to be a concern for red flag conditions Saturday
as models continue to show a warm and breezy day. At this point
min RH values are forecast to be between 20 and 30 percent as south
winds gust around 25 to 35 MPH through the afternoon. Therefore the
potential exist for a critical range land fire danger and the
possible issuance of a red flag warning Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1206 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1202 PM...THE RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH PORTLAND AND CONCORD WERE
ECLIPSED THIS MORNING. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS THAT REFLECT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET.
PREV DISC...
935 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST 14ZS
MESONET. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING
WHEN WE MIX OUT AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION...WHICH RESULTS IN RAPID
JUMPS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE RECORD HIGH AT PORTLAND /51F
SET IN 1985/ HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN. THE RECORD AT CONCORD / 60F
SET IN 1984/ WILL BE CHALLENGED AS WELL.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MIDCOAST REGION.
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...HOWEVER NOT WITH THE INTENSITY OF LAST NIGHT.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING A WARM AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH RECORD WARM TEMPS. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY 12Z AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE TRENDS
OFF THE HRRR MODEL. THE LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO THE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDCOAST
AREA. RECORD WARM TEMPS WILL START OUT THE DAY BUT WILL COOL SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
TONIGHT AND FRI RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING A RETURN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR WITH LCL LIFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT
TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL
GUST OVR 40 KT UNTIL 15Z THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LLWS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE NORTH A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS CLEARED IN CARIBOU, BUT REMAINS DENSE
NORTH OF CARIBOU.
1015 AM UPDATE...ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE SINCE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. SIDE ROADS
REMAIN ICY HOWEVER.
920 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH UNTIL NOON.
840 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. DRAMATIC TEMP GRADIENT FROM HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET,
WITH LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THIS WARM AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS HAVE EXITED INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT. FOGGY IN SOME AREAS
AND HAVE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
ALLOW WINTER HEADLINES TO CONTINUE INTO 10AM GIVEN THE TREACHEROUS
ROADS, ESP SIDE ROADS. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ARE ABOVE
FREEZING NOW THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TREMENDOUS WARMING TODAY ALONG
W/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEEING
CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE S INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECENT LIGHTNING W/THIS CONVECTION.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATEDCAPE UP TO 300 JOULES ALL THE WAY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. DECIDED TO ADDED TSTMS INTO THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY PLUS 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APCH 6+ C/KM. WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE W/THIS CONVECTION. THE HRRR 3KM AND WRF MODELS
DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO RAINFALL AND TREMENDOUS SNOWMELT
W/RUNOFF. TEMPS WILL HIT INTO THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS THE CARIBOU
REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH ALONG THE COAST ATTM W/THE 60 KT LLVL JET
MOVING IN.
LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS NW MAINE THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA W/COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
START FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING W/UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS FAR
N AND NW AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST BY DAYBREAK WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE W/ANY STANDING WATER RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING THE DOWNEAST COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS, AS AN UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW
TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 1O TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5
BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 5 TO 10
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SUNNY START FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE DOWN
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF SHORE THE MAINE
COAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT THE TRACK OF THE LOW DURING MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR STAYING THRU TONIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SOME
SNOW. ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY EXCEPT MVFR PSBL IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY NRN TERMINALS. VFR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUN AND THEN IFR
IN SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GLW WILL REMAIN. WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP 25 TO 30 KT
AS LLVL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35 KT INTO
THE EVENING AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT
AND EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE EVENING TO 10-13 FT. LOCAL WAVE
MODEL KEEPS THINGS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER SOME MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS. STILL THINKING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S COMBINED W/THE RAPID SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE IS
POSSIBLE W/ICE JAMS SETTING UP. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
002.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...FOISY/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
348 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE SNOW HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
ACCUMULATING OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...A
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND LOSS OF
WHAT INSOLATION WE HAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO
STICK.
DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND OMEGA
PLACEMENT ARE ALL FACTORS TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WV...MD...AND PA. HAVE BUMPED UP
THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC AND UPSLOPE
SUPPORT WHICH WILL GET OUR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG MIXING IN THE HAS PRODUCED
GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN THE RIDGES. WHILE THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD
ONLY LAST 6 HOURS OR SO...HAVE EMPHASIZED THE NEAR- ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS IN THE UPDATED WSW THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THERE IS A WINDOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED COINCIDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INVIGORATE SOME SNOW SQUALLS...AS IS EMPHASIZED IN THE
HRRR AND THE RUC IN THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THESE CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND
INVERSIONS DROP BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST A DUAL-LAKE
BAND MAY PROLONG SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-80 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY IN THOSE COUNTIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A BAND PERSISTS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN LATER FRIDAY FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WOULD RECEIVE RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WOULD HAVE SNOW MIX IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH MODELS LACKING RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...HAVE MADE RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...BULK OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONTAINED TO FKL/DUJ TERMINALS. EVEN WITH
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO 25-30 KT...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH A MON COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS... SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUING THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY TURNED TO SNOW AREA-
WIDE...WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE...AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE
ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT EARLY ON.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE AND COOLING MODEL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF MORE-ORGANIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND IN THE RIDGES PER THE
LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA. DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...AND OMEGA PLACEMENT SUPPORTS THE ONGOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WV...MD...AND PA. WILL
UP THE SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC AND UPSLOPE
SUPPORT WHICH WILL GET OUR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG MIXING IN THE HAS PRODUCED
GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN THE RIDGES. WHILE THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD
ONLY LAST 6 HOURS OR SO...HAVE EMPHASIZED THE NEAR- ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS IN THE UPDATED WSW THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THERE IS A WINDOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED
COINCIDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
INVIGORATE SOME SNOW SQUALLS...AS IS EMPHASIZED IN THE HRRR AND
THE RUC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THESE CONCERNS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
LOWER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND
INVERSIONS DROP. MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE FLIES BY LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE LATER SATURDAY. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR
SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WOULD RECEIVE RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WOULD HAVE SNOW MIX IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH MODELS LACKING RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...HAVE MADE RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...BULK OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONTAINED TO FKL/DUJ TERMINALS. EVEN WITH
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO 25-30 KT...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH A MON COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1129 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
UPDATED TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS WITH TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST.
THINK A BRIEF PERIOD -SN IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER OVER NW WI WITH THIS BAND SO HAVE
TRENDED THE BAND OF POPS LOWER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT A
MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE MAIN SNOW BAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
CURRENT RUC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH FALLING 850HPA TEMPS. THE COOLING ALOFT HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...HOLDING OFF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AS THE LAPSE RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN RECEIVING FLURRIES TO A
DUSTING...AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SEEING
AN INCH OR TWO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND IRON RANGE AREAS AS LOW
CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DIFFICULT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/DURATION OF
CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 40S. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND ELSEWHERE UP TO AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN TEMPS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WILL COME OUT OF CENTRAL
MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS HAD THE MORE POTENT SOLUTION...IN TONIGHTS 00Z
SUITE OF GUIDANCE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE ELONGATED AND WEAKER...AS IS THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE. TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE BEGINNING IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY ENDING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER- MOVING SUNDAY SYSTEM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS...LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ZERO TO TEN BELOW ZERO IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS IN THE 20S TUESDAY...BUT THEN WARMING
RIGHT UP AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CIGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THIS
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION. VSBYS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN SOME
PATCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 00Z. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION BEING HYR WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON LONGER DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS MOVING INLAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 12 32 27 / 30 10 0 0
INL 26 5 34 25 / 30 0 0 0
BRD 31 16 36 26 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 31 12 32 25 / 20 30 0 0
ASX 30 12 33 28 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1148 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
Current water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a compact vort max
propagating around the periphery of the upper level trough moving
through the Great Lakes region. This shot of energy and associated
isentropic lift will bring a few light snow showers into the western
half of the CWA this morning. Bufkit soundings have moistened up the
low levels compared to previous soundings. The HRRR also supports
some light precip through about 19Z. As temperatures rise this
morning, any precip may change to more of a rain/snow mix or light
rain showers. Winds will become gusty on the backside of this system
and cloud cover looks to remain through the day before clearing late
this afternoon and evening.
Fire weather concerns are expected this weekend as temperatures warm
into the upper 60s and maybe low 70s. Southwest winds will allow
relative humidities to potentially drop into the 20s and 30s in a
set-up that looks similar to last weeks critical fire weather days.
With limited moisture this month, fuels are are dry and any fire
that ignites will burn readily.
Focus then turns to precip chances late in the weekend and then
again early in the work week. A shortwave trough will swing through
Sunday, but with limited moisture in place best precip chances look
to remain well north of the region. The best chances for precip will
focus on a trough diving south out of the intermountain west Monday
or Tuesday. This system will deepen as it ejects into the plains,
but long-range models are still having difficulty with the timing,
track, and overall strength of the system. Depending on these
factors, some locations in the CWA could see some spring snow
while other locations see some thunder.
.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR to low end VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through
sunset before cloud cover breaks up. Cloud cover should break up as a
surface ridge slides east into Missouri, which will allow winds to go
light and variable overnight, turning to the southwest Friday
morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PMM
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
311 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY, COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN.
LEFT-OVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL
BE DRY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S. MILDER WEATHER
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE A
LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...RELYING ON THE HRRR AND BTV6 MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT STILL CUT ACROSS VERMONT.
BEEN SOME LOCALIZED 1/3 TO 1/2" OR ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS MORNING
FROM THOSE SHOWERS. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING WHAT THE MESO-MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED WOULD HAPPEN -- NAMELY THE RAINFALL BECOMING MORE
SPREAD OUT IN AREA. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SPOKE OF ENERGY IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BAND. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS VERMONT FOR THAT
REASON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHER PRECIPIATION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. COLDER AIR IS WAITING IN THE WINGS, BUT
WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY OOZING INTO THE REGION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW GETS BY, THEN THE OVERALL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ADVECT THE COLDER AIR IN. AS A RESULT, THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE A SLOW ONE. IN GENERAL, MOST
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY 00Z, NORTHERN
VERMONT IN THE 01-03Z RANGE AND CENTRAL VERMONT 02-04Z TIME. AS
THE COLDER AIR COMES IN, THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING, SO NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. PERHAPS A DUSTING TO
0.3" IN THE VALLEYS TO 1-3" AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ALL THE WATER ON ROADS AND LOW-
LYING AREAS FREEZING UP AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. COULD MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING.
AS I MENTIONED THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER
THE PLACE. NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ADEQUATELY ABLE
TO CAPTURE ALL THE VARIABILITY. HAVE NOTED THE ST JOHNSBURY ASOS
HAS HIT 59F (WHICH SUGGESTS WE MIGHT HAVE A RECORD HIGH THERE --
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION, AS THE ASOS IS
UNOFFICIAL), YET AT THE SAME TIME NEWPORT AND MONTPELIER ARE
43-44F. HIGHGATE VT IS AT 38F, WHILE HERE IN BURLINGTON IT`S 48F.
ONE LAST THING TO MENTION, AS COLDER AIR FINALLY FILTERS IN, WE`LL
SEE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOP (SURFACE TO ABOUT 2000
FEET), AND THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT
TIMES -- 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR A LITTLE MORE ABOUT THE ONGOING
RIVER/ICE JAM ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1034MB HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS OUR
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING BEFORE 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DEVELOP BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY
DEPEND UPON WINDS AND CLOUDS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND PROGGED 850MB
TEMPS NEAR -14C...WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR SUPERBLEND VALUES WHICH
SUPPORT NEAR 0F SLK/NEK TO LOWER/MID TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT 5H VORT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CROSS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER ALONG WITH BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. LATEST TRENDS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...ALONG WITH LIGHT QPF FIELDS. WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO
NORTHERN VT MOUNTAINS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM BTWN -10C AND -12C
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MID 20S MTNS TO MID 30S
VALLEYS. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
FIELDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS NORTH TAPER TO SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR QPF/SNOWFALL EXPECTED ON SAT NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
925 TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES. THINKING LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA.
FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON MONDAY.
THIS PLACE MOST OF OUR CWA BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH PROGGED
925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES ABOVE 0C...WITH 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES >540DAM...SUPPORTING MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
FRONT SIDE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST VT...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO ANY PRECIP
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSITION ANY MIX OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY...GIVEN LOW LEVEL
WINDS WITH LOW/MID 30S SLV TO MID 40S SOUTHERN VT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN OUR REGION AND THE MID
ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM BY WEDS INTO THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...PLACING MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...LATEST PROGGES SHOW TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY....NORTHERN NY AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNT OF
PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FULL MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
RANGING VFR TO IFR. VFR IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL BECOME MVFR
BY EVENING, WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF IFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS - FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK,
LAST ACROSS VERMONT. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FRIDAY, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE BY 15Z
FRIDAY. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT
MOST TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV AND MSS.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1250 PM EST THURSDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM 1.25 TO 2.25" OF RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. NOT THAT WE HAD A LOT OF
SNOWPACK, BUT IT WAS ENOUGH TO ADD IN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT.
ALL HAS RESULTED IN THE PROBLEMS WE`VE SEEN. WITH THE RAIN
BASICALLY OVER, THE UPSTREAM RIVER LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THEIR
CRESTS, WITH THE FLOOD WAVES MOVING DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT THOSE FLOOD
CRESTS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN
ISSUES FOR THE NORTHERN RIVERS (LAMOILLE, GREAT CHAZY, PASSUMPSIC,
MISSISQUOI) WHERE WE HAD THE THICKER ICE. THE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING, THAT RUNOFF WILL FREEZE UP AND THIS WILL SPEED UP
THE DROP IN RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY, COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN.
LEFT-OVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL
BE DRY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S. MILDER WEATHER
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE A
LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...RELYING ON THE HRRR AND BTV6 MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT STILL CUT ACROSS VERMONT.
BEEN SOME LOCALIZED 1/3 TO 1/2" OR ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS MORNING
FROM THOSE SHOWERS. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING WHAT THE MESO-MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED WOULD HAPPEN -- NAMELY THE RAINFALL BECOMING MORE
SPREAD OUT IN AREA. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SPOKE OF ENERGY IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BAND. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS VERMONT FOR THAT
REASON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHER PRECIPIATION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. COLDER AIR IS WAITING IN THE WINGS, BUT
WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY OOZING INTO THE REGION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE
UPPER LOW GETS BY, THEN THE OVERALL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ADVECT THE COLDER AIR IN. AS A RESULT, THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE A SLOW ONE. IN GENERAL, MOST
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY 00Z, NORTHERN
VERMONT IN THE 01-03Z RANGE AND CENTRAL VERMONT 02-04Z TIME. AS
THE COLDER AIR COMES IN, THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING, SO NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. PERHAPS A DUSTING TO
0.3" IN THE VALLEYS TO 1-3" AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ALL THE WATER ON ROADS AND LOW-
LYING AREAS FREEZING UP AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. COULD MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING.
AS I MENTIONED THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER
THE PLACE. NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ADEQUATELY ABLE
TO CAPTURE ALL THE VARIABILITY. HAVE NOTED THE ST JOHNSBURY ASOS
HAS HIT 59F (WHICH SUGGESTS WE MIGHT HAVE A RECORD HIGH THERE --
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION, AS THE ASOS IS
UNOFFICIAL), YET AT THE SAME TIME NEWPORT AND MONTPELIER ARE
43-44F. HIGHGATE VT IS AT 38F, WHILE HERE IN BURLINGTON IT`S 48F.
ONE LAST THING TO MENTION, AS COLDER AIR FINALLY FILTERS IN, WE`LL
SEE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOP (SURFACE TO ABOUT 2000
FEET), AND THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT
TIMES -- 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR A LITTLE MORE ABOUT THE ONGOING
RIVER/ICE JAM ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN VERMONT, BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A PARTIALLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 319 AM EST THURSDAY...THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVING TWO ADDITIONAL THREATS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION
AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM BY
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PRESENT A CHALLENGING PERIOD
OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTING AS THE POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
WAFFLING NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TYPICAL NON-DIURNAL TRENDS ETC. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF MODEST CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
POLAR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH BY
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS CLIPPER ENERGY
TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. THUS THE IDEA OF A
SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES, THE POLAR FRONT WILL SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION YET
AGAIN WITH SOME BACKSIDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE SOME
SCT FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SIGNS THAT YET ANOTHER INLAND RUNNER TYPE
OF SYSTEM OF SOUTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WILL PHASE WITH ITS NORTHERN
COUNTERPART AND TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS OR NEARBY
ENVIRONS BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD BRING A HIGHER
THREAT OF MIXED PCPN AND POSSIBLE RAIN TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK AMONG
THIS MORNING`S DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WILL LEAN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OFFERING DECENT CHANCES OF FRONT END LIGHT SNOWS
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS LINGERS
INITIALLY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FULL MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
RANGING VFR TO IFR. VFR IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL BECOME MVFR
BY EVENING, WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF IFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS - FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK,
LAST ACROSS VERMONT. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FRIDAY, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE BY 15Z
FRIDAY. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT
MOST TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV AND MSS.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1250 PM EST THURSDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM 1.25 TO 2.25" OF RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. NOT THAT WE HAD A LOT OF
SNOWPACK, BUT IT WAS ENOUGH TO ADD IN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT.
ALL HAS RESULTED IN THE PROBLEMS WE`VE SEEN. WITH THE RAIN
BASICALLY OVER, THE UPSTREAM RIVER LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THEIR
CRESTS, WITH THE FLOOD WAVES MOVING DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT THOSE FLOOD
CRESTS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN
ISSUES FOR THE NORTHERN RIVERS (LAMOILLE, GREAT CHAZY, PASSUMPSIC,
MISSISQUOI) WHERE WE HAD THE THICKER ICE. THE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING, THAT RUNOFF WILL FREEZE UP AND THIS WILL SPEED UP
THE DROP IN RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
209 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE RETREATING
TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ERODING THE
WESTERN EDGE. BY THIS EVENING THE STRATUS SHOULD HAVE RETREATED
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ISOLATED FOG NORTH
CENTRAL BUT NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST YET.
ON FRIDAY...THE H500 RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION. WITH SUNNY SKIES FRIDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH GOOD MIXING
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE A BRIEF BUT
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS
ROUNDING OUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING A COOLING
TREND. CHANCES OF SNOW ALSO RETURN WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE NAEFS/NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM SHOWS MODEL FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO 850-500MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING WITHIN THE 98TH/99TH PERCENTILE WITH RESPECT TO
CLIMATOLOGY. NOT QUITE A MAXIMUM BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE THESE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT AN EVENT THAT IS OUTSIDE THE 1979-
2000 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
AROUND 65 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR CITIES WITH THE RECORD AT
JAMESTOWN OF 60 DEGREES. FORECAST HIGHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
50F AND 62F. ALBEIT SHY OF RECORDS...THIS WILL STILL NEED SOME
MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IS FORECAST WEST SATURDAY EVENING...AND AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUICK TRANSITION FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BACK TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PUSHES
THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. THIS COULD CHANGE IF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG
TERM MODELS CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN THE GFS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES CHANCES
OF SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ONLY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AFTER SATURDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
TREND COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KDIK. MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IMPACTING KJMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KJMS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 22Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1230 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE ONGOING FORECAST
SO LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE MID DAY UPDATE OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN CO`S ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO ALLOW THE SNOW
TO TAPER OFF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL JUST BE
IN AND AROUND THE SNOWBELT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST
OF TODAY STILL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR SO IN THE WEST TO 2
TO 4 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY INTO MIDDAY THE WILL SLOWLY FALL AFTER 2 PM. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AS THE SNOW
GETS DRIER AND MORE POWDERY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT. NOT EXPECTING A BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS THE
INVERSION WILL LOWER AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST. THE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION WILL BE THE WILD CARD...AND THAT
SHOULD WORK EAST INTO NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE. COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT OF
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 4 MORE INCHES INLAND NW PA. A FEW
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SEEDING OF THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WHICH COULD
PROLONG THE EVENT UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP ALOFT BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES... A SURE SIGN OF SPRING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE RATHER
WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
SNOW. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTIONS THE CHANGE OVER WILL BE LATE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NE OHIO/NW PA.
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS JUST A BRIEF
SHOT BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A TIGHTLY PACKED BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL STALL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES AND LARGE CHANCE FOR ERROR. 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
WHICH COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT DAY 7
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL PULL THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. ALL THAT WILL
REMAIN WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT ERIE AS MAIN FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WHERE THEY ARE NOW THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
SO.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO
EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO NEAR 30
KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING...THEN EASTERN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN BY
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX...TAKING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PULLING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ011>014-023-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ003-006-017.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC/GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE ONGOING FORECAST
SO LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE MID DAY UPDATE OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN CO`S ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO ALLOW THE SNOW
TO TAPER OFF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL JUST BE
IN AND AROUND THE SNOWBELT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST
OF TODAY STILL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR SO IN THE WEST TO 2
TO 4 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY INTO MIDDAY THE WILL SLOWLY FALL AFTER 2 PM. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AS THE SNOW
GETS DRIER AND MORE POWDERY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT. NOT EXPECTING A BIG LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS THE
INVERSION WILL LOWER AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST. THE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION WILL BE THE WILD CARD...AND THAT
SHOULD WORK EAST INTO NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE. COULD BE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT OF
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 4 MORE INCHES INLAND NW PA. A FEW
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SEEDING OF THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WHICH COULD
PROLONG THE EVENT UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP ALOFT BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES... A SURE SIGN OF SPRING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE RATHER
WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO
SNOW. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTIONS THE CHANGE OVER WILL BE LATE WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NE OHIO/NW PA.
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS JUST A BRIEF
SHOT BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A TIGHTLY PACKED BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL STALL OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES AND LARGE CHANCE FOR ERROR. 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
WHICH COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT DAY 7
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF SNOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING IN NW OHIO BY
AROUND 18Z AND DECREASING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO IFR AS THE MORE STEADY SNOW ARRIVES WITH LOW IFR AT
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED AT CLE BETWEEN 16-20Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT ERI WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT CLE/YNG.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY
NE OHIO INTO NW PA. NON VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO
EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO NEAR 30
KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN THIS MORNING...THEN EASTERN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN BY
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX...TAKING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PULLING A STRONGER
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ011>014-023-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ003-006-017.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC/GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1132 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
THE EXITING WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. THIS LEAVES A TRAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR WITH SOME TRACE PRECIPITATION SUCH HAS BEEN SHOWING ON ABR
RADAR...A FEW REPORTING POINTS...AND DEPICTED ON THE HRRR RADAR
GRAPHICS. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VERY VERY FINE
FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS BUT MUST COVER FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN. OF COURSE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ON THE STIFF
SIDE OR THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS IT IS SPIT OUT IN FORECASTS.
CLEARING LATER TODAY SHOULD BE DEFINITE BUT GRADUAL...VERY
GRADUAL EAST AND A BIT FASTER WEST...AS THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
FIRST STOPS THE TRACE PRECIPITATION THEN EATS AWAY AT THE STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DO MUCH EAST...A COUPLE DEGREES DIP THEN A
COUPLE DEGREES RISE...WITH WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST
LATER TODAY.
THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD PICK UP STEAM BY THE START OF THE EVENING
AND THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY WELL BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE THOUGHT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHICH WILL SEE THE COMBO OF LATEST TO CLEAR...AND LATEST TO
SEE THE START OF A WEAK WARMING AND DRYING FLOW WHICH MAY START WEST
AND NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW AFTER COORDINATION BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOR KSUX MAY BE AN
AVIATION CONSIDERATION LATER
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO
REMAINING SNOW PACK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED
THE UPWARD TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH H925
TEMPERATURES EASILY EXCEEDING 10C.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND EXITS TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MIXY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEFLY MIXED WITH SNOW NEAR HIGHWAY 14.
AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BEHIND THE WAVE WITH RIDGING QUICKLY REBOUNDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR MID WEEK...FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE THAN THE GEM AND ECMWF...BUT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION BAND
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE GEM. THE ECMWF
IS DEEPER WITH A GREATER FOCUS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES GOING MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WITH
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016
MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING
PERIODIC FLURRIES WITH THEM. WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING IN LATER
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS SLIDING EASTWARD...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT THE
CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX