Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/24/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
426 PM PST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES. && .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH SIMILAR READINGS IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT WE DO HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE 20Z HRRR IS SUGGESTING LOWER SURFACE RH VALUES THAN THIS MORNING. WE WILL KEEP THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON NORCAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MOST WE CAN REASONABLY EXPECT ARE MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORCAL AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE NEXT TWO STORM SYSTEMS FORECAST TO SKIRT TO OUR NORTH...WE CAN CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR INTO EARLY MARCH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK HOLDING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA BELOW NORMAL PRECIP FOR DAYS 6-10 AND 8-14. AT THE SAME TIME...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND. && .AVIATION... AREAS OF MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM 09Z THRU 18Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 24 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...BEAN/ROWE AVN/FW...BEAN/BSO/ROWE SYNOPSIS...BSO WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
247 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF I-4 WEDNESDAY... ...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF I-4 WEDNESDAY... .SYNOPSIS... 19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED SIGNS OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE FIRST IMPULSE THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR NOW EXITED THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. POTENT LITTLE SPIN WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WORKING OFF THE COAST WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED INDIRECTLY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE THE EVOLUTION A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...SO STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH ITS PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION. DETAILS ON THAT EVENT CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FOR THE MOMENT IN CONTROL AND LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. A SUBTLE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE CAN BE ANALYZED TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA KEYS. SLOW ADVANCE NORTHWARD OF AN ENHANCED CLOUD FIELD DOWN OVER THIS REGION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GENERAL WAA/UPGLIDE REGION OVER THIS BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE NOW LEAVING THE TEXAS COAST CONTINUES TO APPROACHES LATE TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. && .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF NORTHWARD. MODEST BUT DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300-315K SURFACES OVER THIS BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP TO OVERSPREAD SUNCOAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LIFT AND MOISTENING IS RATHER DEFINED BY EARLY EVENING FROM FORT MYERS TO BRADENTON AND THE ADJACENT WATERS...SO THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MORE LIKE SPRINKLES) AFTER 21Z AS WELL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER COVERAGE...AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS WEAK AND A BIT OUT OF PHASE (ARRIVING LATER). HOWEVER...LIKELY TO SEE A FEW ECHOES START SHOWING ON RADAR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...AND DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROP ON THOSE WINDSHIELDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...UNTIL THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGHS ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S MOST SPOTS WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S SHOWING UP. WE HIT 80 HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN FOR SEA-BREEZING OFF TAMPA BAY. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ALLOWS THIS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG OUR ENTIRE COAST TO PUSH ONSHORE...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE SHORE/BEACHES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME...AND NEVER REALLY PROVIDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG OR DEFINED SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO COME A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. THIS OVERALL RISE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE...MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MOST EFFICIENT UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND BE MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA BY DAWN. THEREFORE...LIKELY WILL STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION)...BUT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY AT ANY ONE LOCATION. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. WELL OFF TO OUR WEST THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REALLY AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPING UP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EVENING. THE ORGANIZING OF THIS LOW WILL HELP TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BECOME A CONCERN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST US IN HAVING NICER WEATHER TUESDAY...AS THE HEIGHT RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF SHOULD GIVE US A WARM/HUMID DAY. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDS COVER WE GET...THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 80S. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AT THE BEACHES AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER...THE THERE MAY ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS TO POP OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS. NOT A VERY COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED-SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER 19-20Z. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SEA FOG BECOMES A REALITY THAN IT WOULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUED FOR SHORELINE COMMUNITIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES ONSHORE. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT FORECAST TRENDS RELATED TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING FORWARD IN TIME AS SEA FOG OFTEN HAS A LARGE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE REGIONS COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL MARITIME ACTIVITIES. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)... A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX WITH A SURFACE LOW IN NORTH LA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THU. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INITIALLY NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS... CROSSING FL WED AND WED EVENING. THROUGH LATE WED: MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHEN A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE FORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT... ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. THESE BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT THEN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL WED. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TUE NIGHT INCREASES ON WED TO A SLIGHT RISK FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH...WITH A MARGINAL SOUTH OF THERE. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS THE INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF SEA FOG ON THE GULF TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SOME OF THIS FOG COULD ADVECT ONSHORE WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES. EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH MON: THE SAINT LAWRENCE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE ATLANTIC AS RIDGING OVER THE FAR WEST MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO PLAINS STATES SUN...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTH- EASTERN STATES. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST TO THE GULF REGION AS IT FLATTENS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING OFFSHORE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RE-CENTERS IT/S SELF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT...THEN TREKS EASTWARD SUN-MON. A DRY STABLE AND COOL AIR MASS DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW SEASONAL. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD WITH BASES ABOVE 4FKT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH KLAL AND KPGD HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AFTER 06Z. ANY EARLY MORNING VIS RESTRICTIONS LIFT BY 14-15Z...FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF SEA FOG BY LATER TUESDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE EAST TONIGHT. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... MAINLY INLAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL INCREASE NEAR THE SHORE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT OF SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 64 76 67 76 / 20 20 20 60 FMY 65 79 66 81 / 20 20 10 50 GIF 63 80 65 81 / 20 40 10 60 SRQ 64 74 66 77 / 20 10 20 60 BKV 62 79 65 78 / 30 20 20 60 SPG 65 75 67 76 / 20 10 20 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1250 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .AVIATION UPDATE...SPOKE WITH TOWER AT KPGD AND 1/2SM OBSERVATION IS NOT CORRECT. FIRE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRPORT IS NOT IMPACTING AIRPORT OPERATIONS. VISIBILITY REPORTED HAS TO DO WITH THE SENSOR BEING WORK ON. VFR 18Z TAF FOR KPGD IS VALID. VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH KLAL AND KPGD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY EARLY MORNING VIS RESTRICTIONS. && .UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... 16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNS OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE FIRST IMPULSE THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EXITING THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. POTENT LITTLE SPIN WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WORKING OFF THE COAST WITH A BROADER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED INDIRECTLY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE THE EVOLUTION A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...SO STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH ITS PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FOR THE MOMENT IN CONTROL AND LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. A SUBTLE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE CAN BE ANALYZED TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA KEYS. LOW ENHANCED CLOUDS DOWN OVER THIS REGION SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GENERAL WAA/UPGLIDE REGION OVER THIS BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE NOW LEAVING THE TEXAS COAST CONTINUES TO APPROACHES LATE TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF NORTHWARD. MODEST BUT DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300-315K SURFACES OVER THIS BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP TO OVERSPREAD SUNCOAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIFT AND MOISTENING IS RATHER DEFINED BY EARLY EVENING FROM FORT MYERS TO BRADENTON AND THE ADJACENT WATERS...SO THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MORE LIKE SPRINKLES) AFTER 21Z AS WELL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER COVERAGE...AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS A BIT OUT OF PHASE (LATE ARRIVING). HOWEVER...LIKELY TO SEE A FEW ECHOES START SHOWING ON RADAR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...AND DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROP ON THOSE WINDSHIELDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...UNTIL THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGHS GETTING UP WELL IN THE 70S MOST SPOTS WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WITH A WEAK GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ALLOWS A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO PUSH ONSHORE...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE SHORE/BEACHES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME...AND NEVER REALLY PROVIDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG OR DEFINED SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO COME A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. THIS OVERALL RISE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE...MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MOST EFFICIENT UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND BE MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION)...BUT OVERALL THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. WELL OFF TO OUR WEST THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REALLY AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPING UP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EVENING. THE ORGANIZING OF THIS LOW WILL HELP TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BECOME A CONCERN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST US IN HAVING NICER WEATHER TUESDAY...AS THE HEIGHT RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF SHOULD GIVE US A WARM/HUMID DAY. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDS COVER WE GET...THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 80S. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AT THE BEACHES AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER...THE THERE MAY ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS TO POP OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS. NOT A VERY COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 19-20Z. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SEA FOG BECOMES A REALITY THAN IT WOULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUED FOR SHORELINE COMMUNITIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES ONSHORE. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT FORECAST TRENDS RELATED TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING FORWARD IN TIME AS SEA FOG OFTEN HAS A LARGE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE REGIONS COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL MARITIME ACTIVITIES. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF SEA FOG BY LATER TUESDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 64 78 66 / 10 10 30 20 FMY 81 64 81 66 / 10 20 40 20 GIF 80 63 81 65 / 10 20 50 20 SRQ 76 63 77 66 / 10 20 30 20 BKV 79 59 80 65 / 10 20 40 20 SPG 77 64 77 66 / 0 10 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1158 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... 16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNS OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE FIRST IMPULSE THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EXITING THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. POTENT LITTLE SPIN WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WORKING OFF THE COAST WITH A BROADER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED INDIRECTLY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE THE EVOLUTION A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...SO STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH ITS PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FOR THE MOMENT IN CONTROL AND LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. A SUBTLE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE CAN BE ANALYZED TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA KEYS. LOW ENHANCED CLOUDS DOWN OVER THIS REGION SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GENERAL WAA/UPGLIDE REGION OVER THIS BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE NOW LEAVING THE TEXAS COAST CONTINUES TO APPROACHES LATE TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF NORTHWARD. MODEST BUT DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300-315K SURFACES OVER THIS BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP TO OVERSPREAD SUNCOAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIFT AND MOISTENING IS RATHER DEFINED BY EARLY EVENING FROM FORT MYERS TO BRADENTON AND THE ADJACENT WATERS...SO THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MORE LIKE SPRINKLES) AFTER 21Z AS WELL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER COVERAGE...AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS A BIT OUT OF PHASE (LATE ARRIVING). HOWEVER...LIKELY TO SEE A FEW ECHOES START SHOWING ON RADAR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...AND DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROP ON THOSE WINDSHIELDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...UNTIL THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGHS GETTING UP WELL IN THE 70S MOST SPOTS WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WITH A WEAK GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ALLOWS A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO PUSH ONSHORE...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE SHORE/BEACHES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME...AND NEVER REALLY PROVIDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG OR DEFINED SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO COME A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. THIS OVERALL RISE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE...MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MOST EFFICIENT UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND BE MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION)...BUT OVERALL THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. WELL OFF TO OUR WEST THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REALLY AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPING UP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EVENING. THE ORGANIZING OF THIS LOW WILL HELP TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BECOME A CONCERN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST US IN HAVING NICER WEATHER TUESDAY...AS THE HEIGHT RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF SHOULD GIVE US A WARM/HUMID DAY. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDS COVER WE GET...THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE INTO THE LOWER 80S. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AT THE BEACHES AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER...THE THERE MAY ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS TO POP OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS. NOT A VERY COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 19-20Z. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SEA FOG BECOMES A REALITY THAN IT WOULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUED FOR SHORELINE COMMUNITIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES ONSHORE. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT FORECAST TRENDS RELATED TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING FORWARD IN TIME AS SEA FOG OFTEN HAS A LARGE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE REGIONS COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL MARITIME ACTIVITIES. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH KLAL AND KPGD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY EARLY MORNING VIS RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF SEA FOG BY LATER TUESDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 64 78 66 / 10 10 30 20 FMY 81 64 81 66 / 10 20 40 20 GIF 80 63 81 65 / 10 20 50 20 SRQ 76 63 77 66 / 10 20 30 20 BKV 79 59 80 65 / 10 20 40 20 SPG 77 64 77 66 / 0 10 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
916 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR AN ATL-AGS-MYR LINE LATE THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE- BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY 12Z. EXPECT WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE CSRA TOWARD SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF 36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH GENERAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS AROUND 0.40 OF INCH. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WAS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS 00Z THROUGH AROUND 09Z ALL TERMINALS THEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AFTER 06Z AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO OUR WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE FRONT AND WEDGE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD AND EAST OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST. MODELS TEND TO MOVE WARM FRONTS NORTH TOO QUICKLY AND WILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT. NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR BEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN A WINDOW FROM 11Z-17Z. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING AND CARRY INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY 12Z. EXPECT WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE CSRA TOWARD SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF 36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH GENERAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS AROUND 0.40 OF INCH. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WAS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS 00Z THROUGH AROUND 09Z ALL TERMINALS THEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AFTER 06Z AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO OUR WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE FRONT AND WEDGE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD AND EAST OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST. MODELS TEND TO MOVE WARM FRONTS NORTH TOO QUICKLY AND WILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT. NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR BEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN A WINDOW FROM 11Z-17Z. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING AND CARRY INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION. LATEST RADAR LOOP STILL INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE BEYOND MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING A WARM SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATE EVENING TEMPS STILL QUITE...RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR OH VALLEY...WITH MODELS STILL INDICATING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SLIGHTLY BACKING H5 HEIGHTS WITH AN INCREASE IN H85 WARM ADVECTION. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE QPF OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH BUT THESE AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN NEAR 0.4 OF AN INCH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A WEDGE PATTERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE MODELS HAVE QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS DEPICT HIGH SHEAR WITH A 50- TO 60-KNOT H85 JET. THE MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST ERODING THE WEDGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT TIME MAY BE EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 10 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH THE RAIN CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 16Z THROUGH 23/00Z AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT CAE/CUB HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT AGS/DNL/OGB ATTM. AFTER 23/00Z WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LOW MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT CAE/CUB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
839 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... 835 PM CST WHILE THE ONLY CHANGE WITH HEADLINES WILL BE TO ADD LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS INTO AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT LEAST IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WARNING AREA...INCLUDING COOK COUNTY...AND AT A HIGH IMPACT TIME OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COMMUTE. BOTTOM LINE...THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING TIME WILL PRESENT DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST A LARGE PART OF THE WARNING AREA. HAVE BOOSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AS CONFIDENCE IN BANDING IN THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW...AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST/NORTHWEST SHIFT ENCOMPASSING MORE OF COOK AND WILL COUNTIES. A HIGHER CORRIDOR OF BAND/BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RESIDENCE TIME IN OUR CWA IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 10 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN CONVECTIVE-LIKE RATES AT TIMES AND THE WET CLUMPY SNOW ADDING TO THE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS STILL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FAVORED CORRIDOR OF BANDED SNOW PLACEMENT BETWEEN GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF BANDS IN A COMPLEX SYSTEM...FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA TO FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. BUT THE PROXIMITY IN TIME AND SEEING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THEIR SUPPORTING HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE NAM/SREF/GFS...WARRANTS BOOSTING FORECAST AMOUNTS. ALSO FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL BE WEAVING INTO FORECAST IMPACTS MESSAGING THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A WET SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ALWAYS A CHALLENGE WITH THESE WETTER SNOW EVENTS TO GAUGE HOW THAT WILL DETRACT FROM BLOWING...BUT DO RECALL THAT THE JAN 31-FEB 1 2015 STORM CAUSED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ITS HEAVY WET NATURE WITH INCREASING WINDS. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE SUPPORTING A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IN A WEST/NORTHWEST EXPANSION IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THE MAIN CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WITH A NEGATIVE TILT ALREADY AND BEGINNING ITS NORTHEAST MOVEMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A PERSISTENT STRETCH OF ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHEAST TO KANKAKEE IS HIGHLIGHTING THE ELEVATED TIGHTENING FRONTAL ZONE AND LIKELY PAINTS THE CORRIDOR ON WHERE SNOW WILL FILL IN QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH MORE SO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL EXPAND AND PIVOT NORTHWARD AS THE WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS MAKES CONCEPTUAL SENSE TO PULL STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING MESOSCALE BANDING FURTHER WEST/NORTHWEST...SO FEEL BETTER PUSHING UP SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXPANDING BACK WEST/NORTHWEST SOME. WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BASICALLY HOLD STEADY AND THEN TAKE A QUICK DROP AFTER SNOW STARTS. SOME INITIAL MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT IT SHOULD BE BRIEF. RATES WILL OVERCOME THE NOW WARMER PAVEMENT...THE QUESTION JUST IS HOW QUICKLY. WOULD EXPECT THAT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON WHAT WE ARE SEEING. HAVE UPPED POPS TO BASICALLY 100S IN THE WARNING AREA AND THROUGH ITS DURATION. HAVE ALSO ADDED BLOWING SNOW WORDING IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND AGAIN MOST CONCERNED IN LAKE AND PORTER WHERE UNINHIBITED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES. UPDATED WSW...FORECAST...AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 111 PM CST THROUGH TONIGHT... RAISED HIGH TEMPS DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND RECENT WARM DAYS. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NE U.S. SHIFTS NORTHEAST WHILE THE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NNE IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VORT STREAMER CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...BUT THINKING PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL FALL MAINLY SOUTH OF A GARY IN TO PONTIAC IL LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE DRY LOW LEVELS SO AS PRECIP FALLS INTO THAT LAYER...IT COULD HELP THE LAYER TO COOL RESULTING IN MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 6AM WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL ACCUMULATE. NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. JEE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DYNAMIC/WINTER STORM SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHALLENGES REMAIN ON HOW QUICKLY THE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE ABLE TO COOL THE THERMAL COLUMN...BUT THERE HAS BEEN STEADY CONSISTENCY AMONGST SOLUTIONS. LARGEST ADJUSTMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON PKG WILL BE THE TRANSITION OVER FROM A WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING...AND HAVE DELAYED A FEW HOURS THE START TIME FURTHER NORTH UNTIL 15Z WED. THE OTHER INCLUSION WAS TO ADD IN COOK/WILL COUNTIES AS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY SNOW/HIGHER QPF HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ISSUE A LAKE SHORE FLOOD WARNING FOR LAKE/PORTER INDIANA COUNTIES...WITH THE WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 14FT WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST INDIANA SHORELINE. GETTING INTO THE METEOROLOGY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CHALLENGES DO STILL REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/VOLUME OF SNOW/QPF WITH THE SYSTEM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN ON PRECIP BEGINNING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA AROUND 12Z WED...THEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHWEST. WITH THE STRONG NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT THIS MAY HELP TO ERODE THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP/MOISTURE AND DELAY SATURATION...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES WILL RAPIDLY OVERCOME THE NARROW DRY WEDGE. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE AT THE ONSET...SO THIS IS EQUALLY A CHALLENGE FOR ACCUMS ONCE WE WET BULB DOWN...AND WILL RELY ON FORCING AND SOME SUPPRESSION TO DEW POINTS BELOW 32 DEGREES TO OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS TO TAKE PLACE. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN STEADILY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EASTERLY JET AT NEARLY 55KTS AT 850MB LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWFA BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE PEAK OF THE EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH HOUR FOR THE CHICAGO METRO. THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL DOES APPEAR TO BE PIVOTING WEST BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED FROM JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO PONTIAC...THEN BECOME MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BY LATE AFTN EARLY EVE WED. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AT THE ONSET...DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WARMER SFC TEMPS...WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF 8:1 TO PERHAPS 10:1...THEN AS DYNAMICAL COOLING CONTINUES IN THE AFTERN HOURS THOSE RATIOS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 12:1 TO 15:1 BY LATE AFTN/EVE. GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FALLING SNOW AND CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN ONE HALF MILE TO AT TIMES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER...MAINLY FOR THE OPEN RURAL LOCATIONS THIS WILL POSE A HAZARD. WHICH WOULD MAKE IT FEEL LIKE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIEST ALONG AND EAST OF A FORD TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF CHICAGO...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 5 TO 9 INCHES. MEANWHILE WEST OF THIS LINE SNOW TOTALS QUICKLY DROP...AND AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A MENDOTA TO CRYSTAL LAKE MAY ONLY SEE A DUSTING AT BEST. THE CAVEAT CONTINUES TO BE THAT IF THE AXIS OF STRONGEST FGEN SHIFTS WEST THIS WILL PUSH SNOWFALL TOTALS HIGHER TO THE WEST. THE STRONGER VORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY 21Z WED...WHICH SHOULD BRING THE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIP THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS EAST OF I-39. AS THE LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND PRESSURE RISES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ALLOWING GUSTS TO DIMINISH. THE STEADIER SNOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS FLURRIES BY LATE EVENING WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 20S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM... 324 AM CST ATTENTION TODAY WAS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM. && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS... 550 PM...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. SOME OF THE LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED JUST A TAD TO THE WEST AND THE SHORT RANGE HRRR WHICH IS NOW OUT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALSO SHOWS SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THESE TRENDS IS SLOWLY INCREASING...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE SNOW BEGINS...WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS...HOW LOW VIS/CIGS GO AND HOW LONG THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE SNOW STARTING MID/LATE MORNING...LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADING TO THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE LOWERED PREVAILING CONDITIONS. WHEREVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNDER 1SM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A MDW/LOT LINE... BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. BUT GIVEN THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY... OPTED TO KEEP ORD/MDW PREVAILING 3/4SM AND GYY 1/2SM WITH THIS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FURTHER LOWERING OF VIS/CIGS WILL BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TIGHT CUTOFF TO THE SNOWFALL AND KEPT RFD DRY THOUGH A CONTINUED WESTERN SHIFT OF THE STORM COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO RFD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST UNDER 10KTS THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASE QUICKLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE INTO THE 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY INTO THE 35KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WET AND THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR. THE FALLING SNOW ITSELF COULD PUSH VIS TO 1/2SM OR LOWER AND IF THE NATURE OF THE SNOW ENDS UP MORE AVERAGE...DRIER THAN EXPECTED...THEN THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. CMS && .MARINE... 213 PM CST A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO IMPACT LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND APPROACHING STORM FORCE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG NORTHERLY GALES WILL DRIVE WAVES INTO THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT WINDS TO FINALLY DROP BACK BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ014-ILZ022...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ021...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY. GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
550 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .SHORT TERM... 111 PM CST THROUGH TONIGHT... RAISED HIGH TEMPS DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND RECENT WARM DAYS. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NE U.S. SHIFTS NORTHEAST WHILE THE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NNE IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VORT STREAMER CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...BUT THINKING PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL FALL MAINLY SOUTH OF A GARY IN TO PONTIAC IL LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE DRY LOW LEVELS SO AS PRECIP FALLS INTO THAT LAYER...IT COULD HELP THE LAYER TO COOL RESULTING IN MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 6AM WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL ACCUMULATE. NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. JEE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DYNAMIC/WINTER STORM SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHALLENGES REMAIN ON HOW QUICKLY THE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE ABLE TO COOL THE THERMAL COLUMN...BUT THERE HAS BEEN STEADY CONSISTENCY AMONGST SOLUTIONS. LARGEST ADJUSTMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON PKG WILL BE THE TRANSITION OVER FROM A WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING...AND HAVE DELAYED A FEW HOURS THE START TIME FURTHER NORTH UNTIL 15Z WED. THE OTHER INCLUSION WAS TO ADD IN COOK/WILL COUNTIES AS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY SNOW/HIGHER QPF HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST. THE OTHER ADJSUTMENT WAS TO ISSUE A LAKE SHORE FLOOD WARNING FOR LAKE/PORTER INDIANA COUNTIES...WITH THE WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 14FT WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST INDIANA SHORELINE. GETTING INTO THE METEROLOGY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CHALLENGES DO STILL REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/VOLUME OF SNOW/QPF WITH THE SYSTEM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN ON PRECIP BEGINNING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA AROUND 12Z WED...THEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHWEST. WITH THE STRONG NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT THIS MAY HELP TO ERODE THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP/MOISTURE AND DELAY SATURATION...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSESS WILL RAPIDLY OVERCOME THE NARROW DRY WEDGE. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE AT THE ONSET...SO THIS IS EQUALLY A CHALLENGE FOR ACCUMS ONCE WE WET BULB DOWN...AND WILL RELY ON FORCING AND SOME SUPRESSION TO DEW POINTS BELOW 32 DEGREES TO OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS TO TAKE PLACE. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN STEADILY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EASTERLY JET AT NEARLY 55KTS AT 850MB LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWFA BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERN HOURS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE PEAK OF THE EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH HOUR FOR THE CHICAGO METRO. THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL DOES APPEAR TO BE PIVOTING WEST BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED FROM JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO PONTIAC...THEN BECOME MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BY LATE AFTN EARLY EVE WED. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AT THE ONSET...DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WARMER SFC TEMPS...WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF 8:1 TO PERHAPS 10:1...THEN AS DYNAMICAL COOLING CONTINUES IN THE AFTERN HOURS THOSE RATIOS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 12:1 TO 15:1 BY LATE AFTN/EVE. GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FALLING SNOW AND CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN ONE HALF MILE TO AT TIMES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER...MAINLY FOR THE OPEN RURAL LOCATIONS THIS WILL POSE A HAZARD. WHICH WOULD MAKE IT FEEL LIKE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIEST ALONG AND EAST OF A FORD TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF CHICAGO...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 5 TO 9 INCHES. MEANWHILE WEST OF THIS LINE SNOW TOTALS QUICKLY DROP...AND AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A MENDOTA TO CRYSTAL LAKE MAY ONLY SEE A DUSTING AT BEST. THE CAVEAT CONTINUES TO BE THAT IF THE AXIS OF STRONGEST FGEN SHIFTS WEST THIS WILL PUSH SNOWFALL TOTALS HIGHER TO THE WEST. THE STRONGER VORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY 21Z WED...WHICH SHOULD BRING THE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIP THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS EAST OF I-39. AS THE LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND PRESSURE RISES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ALLOWING GUSTS TO DIMINISH. THE STEADIER SNOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS FLURRIES BY LATE EVENING WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 20S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM... 324 AM CST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REALLY PROVIDE FOR A RATHER BRIEF AND TEMPERED SHOT OF COOLER AIR LATE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON BAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON A BIG WINDY WARM UP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 40S AND PROBABLY GETTING INTO THE 50S IN MANY AREAS IF CURRENT FORECASTS END UP BEING PERFECT PROGS. LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL CERTAINLY HAMPER THIS WARM UP WHERE EVER IT ENDS UP BEING AND DID HOLD TEMPS BACK EAST OF I-57 WHERE SNOW COVER IS MOST LIKELY TO STILL EXIST. DIFFERENCES ARISE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE MODELS WITH GFS/GEM TRACKING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA AND DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH COOLING US DOWN WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE AND MY INCLINATION IS TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD HAVE SUNDAY IN THE WINDY WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT THE 60S. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE 2 EXTREMES IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL ONE OF THE MODEL CAMPS TRENDS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE OTHER. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS DISTANCE...THOUGH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE. IZZI && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS... 550 PM...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. SOME OF THE LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED JUST A TAD TO THE WEST AND THE SHORT RANGE HRRR WHICH IS NOW OUT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALSO SHOWS SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY MID/LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THESE TRENDS IS SLOWLY INCREASING...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE SNOW BEGINS...WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS...HOW LOW VIS/CIGS GO AND HOW LONG THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE SNOW STARTING MID/LATE MORNING...LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADING TO THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE LOWERED PREVAILING CONDITIONS. WHEREVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNDER 1SM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A MDW/LOT LINE... BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. BUT GIVEN THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY... OPTED TO KEEP ORD/MDW PREVAILING 3/4SM AND GYY 1/2SM WITH THIS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FURTHER LOWERING OF VIS/CIGS WILL BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TIGHT CUTOFF TO THE SNOWFALL AND KEPT RFD DRY THOUGH A CONTINUED WESTERN SHIFT OF THE STORM COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO RFD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST UNDER 10KTS THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASE QUICKLY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE INTO THE 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY INTO THE 35KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WET AND THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR. THE FALLING SNOW ITSELF COULD PUSH VIS TO 1/2SM OR LOWER AND IF THE NATURE OF THE SNOW ENDS UP MORE AVERAGE...DRIER THAN EXPECTED...THEN THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. CMS && .MARINE... 213 PM CST A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO IMPACT LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND APPROACHING STORM FORCE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG NORTHERLY GALES WILL DRIVE WAVES INTO THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT WINDS TO FINALLY DROP BACK BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ014-ILZ022...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ021...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY. GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1031 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S. TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS HAD SUGGESTED. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE BRIEF TIMES OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AS WELL IN LIGHT SNOW OR UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR AT KIWD AND KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WED AFTERNOON AT KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS OF TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
957 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL AWAIT THE ANALYSIS OF THE FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP NOW SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995MB SFC LOW OVER NRN MISSISSIPPI. THE LAST FEW SFC ANALYSES AND RECENT SFC PRESSURE CHANGE SUGGEST THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO WRN TENNESSEE/WRN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. SUGGESTING THE MORNING GFS RUN MAY INDEED BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST...YET ALSO RAISING SOME CONCERNS THE ECMWF MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR EAST. THIS DOES SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FLUCTUATE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND BACK AT TIMES...WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST /MONROE TO DOWNTOWN DETROIT/ POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL RAIN INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FULLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE THERMAL PROFILE AS THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ANN ARBOR TO PORT HURON LINE/. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW AND STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT SOLID WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. AS FAR AS THE EVENING UPDATE...THE RECENT HRRR AND 00Z NAM ARE PICKING UP ON THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR /NOTED ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING/. THIS WILL SUPPORT BACKING OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS BY A COUPLE HOURS. THE LEAD EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AROUND 11Z...THEN LIFT INTO FLINT AND PORT HURON AROUND 13Z. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 611 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL SUPPORT SOME DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS LIKELY TOPPING 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHILE SOME LOW END MVFR TYPE CIGS MAY LIFT INTO SRN MI LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS SE MI FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WED MORNING. ATTM...PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WED MORNING AROUND DETROIT...AND MAINLY SNOW AT PTK/FNT/MBS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS BOTH SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. FOR DTW...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP ONSET BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z...WITH PRECIP LIKELY BEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES AT METRO WILL BE RIGHT ON THE BORDER BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR BY MID WED AFTERNOON. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 OVERNIGHT. HIGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. * LOW IN TIMING THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 DISCUSSION... A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH HIGHLY SENSITIVE THERMAL FIELDS...AS THE INTERACTION OF THREE KEY UPPER LEVEL PLAYERS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA...AS EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS IN MID LEVELS. SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH MINNESOTA EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND FORCE THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CIRCULATION IS QUICKLY TIGHTENING UP AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN GULF STATES. THE BIG ISSUE IS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY QUICKLY UNRAVELS AND EXPANDS OUTWARD...WITH THE EXCELLENT FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENT ADVANCING NORTH...ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PW VALUES PUSHING TOWARD 0.75 INCHES...AND 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RUNNING AROUND 4 G/KG...AND EVEN MAYBE APPROACHING 5 G/KG DOWNRIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES WARMTH...AND WILL BE TOWING THE LINE WITH THE 0 C ISOTHERM ACROSS A VERY DEEP LAYER. THE GFS AND NAM MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY PRONOUNCED...AS 925-850 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF THE GFS ARE A GOOD 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE NAM OVER WAYNE COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS A BIT OF A WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND WITH THE GEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM...FORECAST WAS SKEWED ON THE COLDER SIDE...AS THE 12Z EURO HAS COME IN LINE WITH ITS 00Z RUN. THE HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE AT 6Z WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER...AS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TOO DEEP AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW (983 MB)...LIKELY SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHILE THE EURO IS MUCH FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER AT 990 MB. LATEST RAP13 IS IN LINE WITH THE EURO MAGNITUDE BUT IN THE MIDDLE FOR LOCATION. EXPECTATIONS ARE THE COLD DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FEED DOWN LOW SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD WET BULBING WITH LEAD SURGE OF MOISTURE/ACTIVITY TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER (MONROE/WAYNE/LENAWEE COUNTIES)...AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO IMPINGE ON THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF PRECIPITATION DOES TAPER OFF AND SHUT DOWN...SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1 TO 5 INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. HIGHER END IF WE STAY MOSTLY SNOW AND DON`T MIX...LOWER END WITH MIXTURE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE BEING ALL SNOW...WITH LONGER DURATION OF FORCING. ALTHOUGH THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD SAGINAW BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THE QUESTION MARK IS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SETTLING BACK SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THIRD UPPER LEVEL PLAYER CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON ACTS AS THE KICKER AND ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SET IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE SNOW BY AROUND NOON. WITH MUCH OF THE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE CONSISTENT EURO...TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 POINT TO STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF SAGINAW BAY/LAKE HURON DURING WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORES...BUT WITH THE WET NATURE OF SNOW...LACK OF BLOWING SNOW INITIALLY...VISIBILITIES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 1/4SM FOR ANY EXTENDED TIME...AND HELD OFF ON BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS IS SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS CAN LOOK AT CLOSELY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A CANADIAN LOW DROPS OVER THE DAKOTA`S AND BEGINS ITS EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD MICHIGAN. THIS LOW...WHICH INITIALLY LOOKED FAIRLY WEAK...NOW APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HEARTY. IT BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE... DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE ON INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECTING GALES ON LAKE HURON WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HYDROLOGY... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A LONGER DURATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IMPACTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RAIN SNOW LINE STILL IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO RUN THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM ABOUT PORT HURON SOUTH THROUGH DETROIT. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY. EVEN IF IT FELL ALL AS RAIN...WOULD ONLY EXPECT THE ROUGE RIVER TO COME NEAR FLOOD STAGE. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ076-082. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ060>063-068>070-075. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363- 421-422-441-462. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361-442- 443-463-464. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......SC AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...SF/DE MARINE.......DRC HYDROLOGY....DRC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
554 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM NE MN INTO NW WI WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA. TONIGHT...AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SLIDES TO THE EAST...MAINLY JUST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS OF MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING...A HALF INCH OR LESS. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 411 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY SOUTHWESTER THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA INTO QUEBEC. THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND THEN OVER THE EAST HALF OVERNIGHT. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL WITH MODELS ONLY PAINTING OUT AROUND 0.06 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1 WOULD GIVE MOST PLACES A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH TO AT MOST AN INCH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH ALONG WITH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT AROUND -10C. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO CREATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTH WINDS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS. THE EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO THE EAST THEN CHANCE MAY BE INCREASED OVER THAT AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OVER MAINLY FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH IS LESS FAVORED FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT ON NORTH WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY FRIDAY EVENING TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -20C TO -25C RANGE. THIS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT LOCATIONS FOR THE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH CAA WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AGAIN...AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE MAY CAUSE FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.P. BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN OR FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 554 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AS WELL. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 25KT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NW GALES TO 40 KNOTS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM NE MN INTO NW WI WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA. TONIGHT...AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SLIDES TO THE EAST...MAINLY JUST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS OF MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING...A HALF INCH OR LESS. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 411 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY SOUTHWESTER THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME A 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA INTO QUEBEC. THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND THEN OVER THE EAST HALF OVERNIGHT. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL WITH MODELS ONLY PAINTING OUT AROUND 0.06 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1 WOULD GIVE MOST PLACES A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH TO AT MOST AN INCH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH ALONG WITH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT AROUND -10C. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO CREATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTH WINDS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS. THE EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO THE EAST THEN CHANCE MAY BE INCREASED OVER THAT AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OVER MAINLY FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH IS LESS FAVORED FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT ON NORTH WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY FRIDAY EVENING TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -20C TO -25C RANGE. THIS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT LOCATIONS FOR THE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH CAA WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AGAIN...AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE MAY CAUSE FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.P. BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN OR FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 MAINLY MVFR CIGS ABOVE 2K FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CIGS BLO 2K FT TONIGHT WILL BE AT WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT PREVAILS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 25KT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NW GALES TO 40 KNOTS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
557 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROF STRETCHED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 20S JUST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. A BROAD AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...AND NORTH OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES...WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT YIELDING OVERNIGHT LOWS COLDER THAN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DOUBT SKIES WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR ACROSS MY WEST AND NORTH. TRENDED MINS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A RESULT. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED COLDER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MIXES OUT THE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO CONTINUE OVER FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THOSE LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT TO THE SFC...AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DEPICT DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THIS AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ON THURSDAY...THE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR GRADUALLY TURNS TO THE NW RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH. HOWEVER...NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION IN THE MORNING GIVES WAY TO SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 1000-900MB LAYER. HAVE MODIFIED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE NW FLOW BEGINS TO SWITCH TO THE W LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER ASHLAND AND IRON AGAIN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SFC RIDGING COVERS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FROPA AS ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT FINDS A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN THE DAKOTAS AND MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG CAA TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES INDICATE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS. AS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 557 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SOME LOWERED VISBY AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. THIS IS A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AT KDLH/KHYR AROUND 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT WET SNOW/RAIN WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WILL SEE FOG BETWEEN 07Z-18Z TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE RAP/TIME LAGGED RAP ENSEMBLE IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH FOG FORMATION AS THE LATEST GFSLAMP. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KHIB WHERE SKIES MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR AROUND 17Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 22 31 17 28 / 30 10 10 10 INL 12 28 15 25 / 10 10 10 10 BRD 22 32 19 29 / 0 10 10 10 HYR 25 33 19 29 / 40 10 10 10 ASX 26 32 19 29 / 60 40 10 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012- 020-021. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ011- 019. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HUYCK LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
418 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 AFTER A BRIEF BOUT WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OVERNIGHT THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TWO CHANCES FOR SNOW...FIRST TODAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR A QUICK 1-3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST INTENSE TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES MILD AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS TODAY AND WARM AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MILD TEMPS TUESDAY COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST IN THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM A MUCH STRONGER POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NEAR CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING HEADED SOUTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO HEAD TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS JUST PART OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY...AND BY TUESDAY MORNING THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SPAN FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTED BY A NARROW 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY CAUSING THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO AMPLIFY GREATLY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. AT LOWER LEVELS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR. WARM AIR ADVECTION PEAKS TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THROUGH TUESDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH BEGINS...AND WHILE THE TRUE SFC COLD FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THIS SFC TROUGH WILL KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING EAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM THE MID-LEVEL PVA COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH FAST-ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW SQUALLS ARE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW/MID 30S ELSEWHERE TODAY...THEN LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY WHICH IS ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH IS 10- 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW...OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER EASTERN AREAS IN THE EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY COLD...SO WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN VEER TO NORTHEAST BEFORE BACKING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY...850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -8C AND THE FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC. WE DO EXPECT SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES AS FAR WEST AS THE TWIN PORTS AND TWO HARBORS ON WEDNESDAY. A DEEP LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TOWARD QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE REST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKING MORE LIKELY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THIS EVENINGS SOLUTIONS DELAY THIS COLDER AIR AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE 22/00Z RUN OF THE GFS NOW SHOWS 850MB TEMPS AROUND ZERO OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AT 12Z SATURDAY...AND THE 21/12Z RUN HAD -34C AT THE SAME TIME. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN COOL TO THE TEENS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE TEMPERATURES IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIABILITY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A CHANGE BACK TO WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED WOULD MEAN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND AND CLEAR SKIES KHYR MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST TIME LAGGED RAP GUIDANCE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON MONDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM THIS FRONT AS THE LATEST NMM/ARW KEEP MOST OF SNOW CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. KHIB/KINL ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE VISBY REDUCTION WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FROM 19Z-21Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 29 23 33 14 / 20 50 70 10 INL 29 23 30 7 / 70 80 70 0 BRD 32 26 36 16 / 20 50 60 0 HYR 33 21 36 20 / 10 30 60 20 ASX 32 23 36 21 / 10 30 60 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1147 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 HAVE UPDATED THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD ZONES WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL BELOW ZERO. UPDATE ISSUED AT 449 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FROM MOOSE LAKE TO CLOQUET. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE GRIDS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SNOW IN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL FGEN...FROM ROUGHLY MOOSE LAKE TO SOLON SPRINGS AND THE HAYWARD AREA THIS EVENING. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME...LIMITING THE FZDZ THREAT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 AT 300 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT NNW FLOW...EXCEPT FOR EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MINNESOTA WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WAS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING FROM THE NORTH. THE NW FORECAST AREA WAS ALREADY CLEAR. THERE WAS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...MAINLY FROM THE CONVERGENCE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW AND NNW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S. THE LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO FOR AREAS FROM THE DULUTH AREA TO THE ISABELLA AREA. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE WEST...WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE WEAK WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CLEARING THIS EVENING...SUCH AS THE DLHWRF AND GFS MOS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY IN PART DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SOME AREAS OF THE NW FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF AMPLIFICATION FORECASTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS..WITH THE DULUTH CWA RESIDING UNDERNEATH NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AS A GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK INTO MORE OF THE CORE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OCCURS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE DISTURBANCE FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME IS STARTING TO LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN ADDITION TO STRONGER AND LONGER DURATION SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING..SOME ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT IS IMPLIED WITHIN THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN..AND CROSS SECTIONS ALSO REVEAL A CONSIDERABLY LESS-STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DETAILS REMAIN TO SHAKE OUT..BUT WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ALSO INCREASED SNOW AMOUNT FORECASTS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER S/W TROF DROPS ESEWD INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF TO OUR EAST..WHICH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL..BUT NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN AS 925/850 TEMPS COOL BY 8-12 DEGREES C FROM TUE MORNING TO THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT AN EVEN MORE ROBUST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEKEND..WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/LK EFFECT ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND TEMPS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WE DID LOWER LOW TEMP FORECASTS FROM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE A BIT DURING THIS TIME FRAME..BUT FOR NOW DID NOT LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AS ANY SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR TYPICALLY RESULTS IN 35-40 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGES DUE TO THE FORESTED AREAS LOWER ALBEDO AND STRONGER LATE FEB SUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND AND CLEAR SKIES KHYR MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST TIME LAGGED RAP GUIDANCE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON MONDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM THIS FRONT AS THE LATEST NMM/ARW KEEP MOST OF SNOW CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. KHIB/KINL ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE VISBY REDUCTION WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FROM 19Z-21Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 7 29 22 33 / 70 20 40 60 INL -10 29 23 31 / 10 50 60 50 BRD 17 33 24 35 / 10 10 40 50 HYR 14 32 21 36 / 30 10 20 50 ASX 14 31 22 36 / 70 20 30 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GRANING SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
518 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS ONGOING AS WE HEAD FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A DEEPENING TROUGH CROSSING THE ARKLATEX REGION IS CAUSING MASSIVE PRESSURE FALLS WITH STRENTHENING LIFT/WIND SHEAR OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF RAIN IS HELPING TO LIMIT THE STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL TO AREAS ALONG/S OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED/INTENSIFIED AT THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR SFC LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MS AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ACCELERATED TIMING EARLIER TODAY AND DOESN`T WASTE MUCH TIME GETTING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS BY MID EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES THEREAFTER...SOME HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD LINGER BEHIND THE TORNADO THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED. WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT COLD ADVECTION AND RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE RAIN COMBINED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS (WIND ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE DELTA) AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLE DAY...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW IN SPITE OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO END LATE IN THE DAY WITH DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /EC/ LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE STAY UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUR COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING SOME RETURN FLOW. UPPER FLAT RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO POPS WERE LOWERED SOME. THE EURO HAD ONLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT HANGING TO THE NORTH....AND CANADIAN LOOK TO BE DRY FOR THAT PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD RAIN WITH THE FRONT./17/ && .AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 5Z. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AT 12Z. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALSO. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR GLH/GWO AND MAYBE JAN. WILL CONTINUE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS AT GLH. WILL GO WITH 15 TO 20KTS AT JAN/GWO MAINLY AFTER 6Z. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. /7/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 44 49 36 58 / 99 42 3 1 MERIDIAN 47 47 35 58 / 100 37 6 1 VICKSBURG 44 52 36 59 / 89 40 1 1 HATTIESBURG 47 51 37 63 / 96 17 2 1 NATCHEZ 44 54 38 61 / 62 25 0 1 GREENVILLE 41 49 35 54 / 99 59 1 1 GREENWOOD 42 47 34 53 / 99 65 5 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ026>033-036>039- 042>066-072>074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034- 035-040-041. LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075. && $$ EC/17/7/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
905 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE: Issued at 839 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Upper level low was now over southwest AR with a deep surface low ahead of it over northwest MS. Rain was spreading northward into parts of southeast MO and southwest IL with a narow band of rain extending from Linn to Elsberry MO, just west of the St Louis metro area. Latest HRRR model runs spread precipitation through southeast MO and southwest IL late tonight, including most of the St Louis metro area with St Charles county being the western edge of the persistent precipitation shield. The rain should change over to snow over most of the area late tonight leading to potentially hazardous driving conditions Wednesday morning. Snowfall rates may be quite high across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL Wednesday morning and may have to increase snow amounts a little mainly south and east of STL. Will continue Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Advisory for late tonight and Wednesday for southeast MO and southwest IL, including the St Louis metro area. GKS && .SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Have made some significant adjustments to the forecast that include metro St. Louis. A winter weather advisory and a wind advisory has already been issued for late tonight and tomorrow. Water vapor shows that the upper low is bottoming out over the Southern Plains that will move northeast tonight and tomorrow morning through the Mid South into the Ohio Valley. The 12Z run of the GFS showed a slight shift to the northwest with the axis of the precipitation whereas the 12Z ECMWF is slightly farther to southeast. GFS is showing intense frontogenesis that will move along the northwestern edge of precipitation band from the eastern Ozarks into central Illinois including the St. Louis metro area from 09-15Z that will likely be producing heavy precipitation rates. Forecast soundings indicate that this will be snow. The latest runs from the HRRR, WRF, and RAP all are supporting this, showing mesoscale banding moving up into eastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois late tonight and early Wednesday. So expect precipitation to move into the area this evening and overnight through the morning hours, with more snow now given the amount of forcing and slightly colder soundings. This now justifies issuing an advisory for the southeastern half of the CWA of snowfall amounts. There will be a time in the morning where the snow could be heavy at times with big wet heavy flakes. It will also be windy as the pressure gradient will be tightening as the surface low deepens. Have also issued a wind advisory for the same location as the winter weather advisory. Have lowered temperatures below guidance. Temperatures will be hampered from rising tomorrow by the clouds and the precipitation. Precipitation will end from west to east during the afternoon as the system begins to lift out of the area. Britt .LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Still looks like we will stay dry from Thursday into Saturday as there will not be much moisture to work with under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will go from below normal to back above normal for the weekend. Still looks like a system will bring us a chance of precipitation on Sunday night. Britt && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 547 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 A low pressure storm system now centered in the lower MS Valley will deepen and lift northeastward over the next 24 hours with a position near NW Ohio by 00z/25 Feb. Large rain shield occurring to the north of the low pressure system will spread from southern MO and far southern IL into metro St. Louis area near 06z. Present indications are that the rain will change to snow across far eastern MO into southwest IL in the 09-10z period and then continue through Wed. morning, tapering off by early afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate lowering to IFR once the change in p-type occurs. Wet accumulating snow is expected at the St. Louis terminals. KUIN and KCOU should remain clear of the precipitation shield, however KCOU should see some MVFR cigs that advect into from the northwest. The other big element with this storm system will be strong and gusty north-northwest winds which will be increasing tonight and lasting through the day on Wednesday. Specifics for KSTL: Rain should move into the terminal near 06z. Present indications are that the rain will change to snow in the 09-10z period and then continue through Wednesday morning, tapering off by early afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate, lowering to IFR once the change in p-type occurs.The other big element will be strong and gusty north-northwest winds which will be increasing tonight and lasting through the day on Wednesday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO- Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO. IL...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL- Montgomery IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
602 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Have made some significant adjustments to the forecast that include metro St. Louis. A winter weather advisory and a wind advisory has already been issued for late tonight and tomorrow. Water vapor shows that the upper low is bottoming out over the Southern Plains that will move northeast tonight and tomorrow morning through the Mid South into the Ohio Valley. The 12Z run of the GFS showed a slight shift to the northwest with the axis of the precipitation whereas the 12Z ECMWF is slightly farther to southeast. GFS is showing intense frontogenesis that will move along the northwestern edge of precipitation band from the eastern Ozarks into central Illinois including the St. Louis metro area from 09-15Z that will likely be producing heavy precipitation rates. Forecast soundings indicate that this will be snow. The latest runs from the HRRR, WRF, and RAP all are supporting this, showing mesoscale banding moving up into eastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois late tonight and early Wednesday. So expect precipitation to move into the area this evening and overnight through the morning hours, with more snow now given the amount of forcing slightly colder soundings. This now justifies issuing an advisory for the southeastern half of the CWA of snowfall amounts. There will be a time in the morning where the snow could be heavy at times with big wet heavy flakes. It will also be windy as the pressure gradient will be tightening as the surface low deepens. Have also issued a wind advisory for the same location as the winter weather advisory. Have lowered temperatures below guidance. Temperatures will be hampered from rising tomorrow by the clouds and the precipitation. Precipitation will end from west to east during the afternoon as the system begins to lift out of the area. Britt .LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Still looks like we will stay dry from Thursday into Saturday as there will not be much moisture to work with under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will go from below normal to back above normal for the weekend. Still looks like a system will bring us a chance of precipitation on Sunday night. Britt && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 547 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 A low pressure storm system now centered in the lower MS Valley will deepen and lift northeastward over the next 24 hours with a position near NW Ohio by 00z/25 Feb. Large rain shield occurring to the north of the low pressure system will spread from southern MO and far southern IL into metro St. Louis area near 06z. Present indications are that the rain will change to snow across far eastern MO into southwest IL in the 09-10z period and then continue through Wed. morning, tapering off by early afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate lowering to IFR once the change in p-type occurs. Wet accumulating snow is expected at the St. Louis terminals. KUIN and KCOU should remain clear of the precipitation shield, however KCOU should see some MVFR cigs that advect into from the northwest. The other big element with this storm system will be strong and gusty north-northwest winds which will be increasing tonight and lasting through the day on Wednesday. Specifics for KSTL: Rain should move into the terminal near 06z. Present indications are that the rain will change to snow in the 09-10z period and then continue through Wednesday morning, tapering off by early afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate, lowering to IFR once the change in p-type occurs.The other big element will be strong and gusty north-northwest winds which will be increasing tonight and lasting through the day on Wednesday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO- Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO. IL...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL- Montgomery IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
540 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Issued at 322 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2016 Surface high pressure will dominate the sensible weather both today and tonight. Temperature forecast for today is a bit problematic as stratus which currently exists is fairly patchy in nature leading to a highly uncertain cloud forecast for today. Regardless...with a warm start to the day for this time of year high temperatures will be at least several degrees above normal. Highs are expected to range from the mid 40s to low 50s across the region. For tonight...cloud cover will be on the increase late tonight ahead of the potent system coming out of the southwest US. Light northeasterly winds with lows in the 30s are expected. Gosselin .LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2016 What a difference a day makes. Models are a bit colder with system that approaches region beginning Tuesday. However, there are differences on track of system as well as thermal profile. At this time feel that 00z runs of GFS and ECMWF have best handle, but will temper snowfall amounts. As precipitation spreads northward on Tuesday, it will be warm enough to be all rain, as highs will be in the mid to upper 40s. Then as deepening surface low lifts from eastern TX northeastward towards the Ohio Valley, it will have quite a bit of dynamics, but as stated earlier the thermal profile is a bit tricky. As colder air is pulled into the region, rain to change over to a mix of rain and snow Tuesday evening, then mostly snow for areas along and south of the I-44 corridor in MO and I-70 corridor in IL after 06z Wednesday. The period of the heaviest snow will be between midnight and noon Wednesday. At this time there appears to be the potential for 1 to 5 inches of snowfall with locally higher amounts, mainly over the eastern Ozarks and portions of southwestern Illinois. Once again the St. Louis metro area will be on the edge with lower amounts to the northwest of metro area and higher amounts to the south and east of metro area. Any change in the the temperature forecast could mean more rain and less accumulation, or more snow and more accumulation. Another issue will be the winds, as surface low strengthens and lifts northeastward, will see winds on the increase from the northeast to north. Will see gusts up to 35 mph at times Tuesday night and Wednesday. System to exit region Wednesday evening with the precipitation tapering off. Beyond that, dry and near normal temperatures for the rest of the forecast period. Byrd && .AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2016 Difficult forecast with respect to clouds this morning. Satellite imagery depicts two areas of widespread stratus...one along the mid-Missouri River Valley northwest of the area and another currently affecting the metro terminals with KSUS near the NW edge. In between...patches of stratus may affect KUIN and KCOU at least through the morning hours. Have higher confidence in metro ceiling trends through this morning due to the greater coverage of the stratus. RAP 900-925 hPa winds are light out of the northeast so expect stratus to remain at the metro TAFs for most of this morning...first eroding on the edge near KSUS and then KCPS more toward the noon hour. For this afternoon and tonight...cannot rule out additional borderline MVFR stratus but confidence too low attm to mention. Otherwise...expect light northeast winds to continue through the valid TAF period as surface high pressure near the Great Lakes slowly slides eastward. Specifics for KSTL: MVFR stratus expected to hold until the late morning hours eroding around 1600 UTC. Cannot rule out borderline MVFR stratus again tonight but too low of confidence. As for winds...they will remain light out of the northeast through early Tuesday. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 50 36 49 36 / 0 0 10 60 Quincy 44 30 46 31 / 0 0 5 20 Columbia 49 32 46 33 / 0 5 10 30 Jefferson City 50 33 48 34 / 0 0 20 30 Salem 49 33 50 37 / 0 5 10 90 Farmington 50 33 48 34 / 0 5 30 80 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1057 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 .UPDATE: Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016 The going forecast looks to be on track. The biggest challenge is how to handle the stratus which continues to filter south out of Iowa and central Illinois into our area. There are enough breaks in the clouds to make it difficult to figure out what the percentage of sky cover is and the southern edges of the clouds keep evaporating as they move south. RAP 950-900mb RH seems to be doing an OK job handling the clouds at this time...but it might be too cloudy later tonight. At any rate, cold advection on northerly flow should keep temperatures dropping tonight...so the going temperature forecast still looks good. Carney && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016 Expect dry conditions tonight as a shortwave trough over the Great Lakes moves quickly off to the east leaving the area under weak subsidence. Weak north to northeasterly low level flow will bring some of the low clouds south into the northern and western parts of the area by late tonight. Went a bit above on MOS guidance tonight based on expected low clouds moving in and current dewpoints. Britt .LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016 Still expect Monday and Monday night to be dry with northeasterly flow into the area under weak west southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be close to seasonable normals. While there are some questions about the storm that will move across the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday, it appears that there is the potential for 1-2+ inches of snow over the central and eastern CWA during this period. Main questions will be temperatures as the lower atmosphere will be close to freezing, and current forecast is a mix of rain and snow. Any change in the temperature forecast could mean more rain and less accumulation, or more snow and more accumulation. Have leaned more on the global models as the NAM has not shown much continuity over the past 24 hours. Still looks like a trough will dive southeast over the western CONUS on Monday and close off over the southern Plains on Tuesday before lifting out over Mid South and the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. This setup would be favorable for the deformation zone to move across the central or southeast part of the CWA. This system will then lift out on Wednesday evening and dry weather is expected into next weekend as upper flow switches from northwesterly to zonal. Seasonable normals are expected during the period. Britt && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1047 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016 Surface ridge over the northern Plains will build southeastward into our area. Northerly surface winds late tonight will veer around to a nely direction on Monday. Low level MVFR cloudiness around 2000-3000 feet in height across parts of IA, northern MO and northern IL will advect southward into the taf sites late tonight. The cloud ceiling will likely rise into the VFR catagory Monday afternoon. Specifics for KSTL: Low level MVFR cloudiness across northern IL will advect into STL late tonight. The ceiling height will likely rise into the VFR catagory Monday afternoon. Weak nly surface wind late tonight will veer around to a nely direction Monday morning. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
311 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GONE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA OVERNIGHT, AS DEPICTED WITH HRRR ANALYSIS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY KEEPING A COOL BUT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH THE WESTERN US BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS A COUPLE OF IMPLICATIONS LOCALLY. FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SECONDLY, REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN US COURTESY THE HUDSON BAY LOW. WITH EACH SURGE, THE COLDEST AIR TRIES TO EDGE WEST INTO MONTANA, BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR WEST IT GETS. FOR NOW, THINKING THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA COULD BRIEFLY GET GLANCED BY SOME COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS SUGGEST THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF LOW AND ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW, LEANING TOWARDS AN ECMWF/GEFS SOLUTION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME. THIS SOLUTION LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON, INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF/GEFS. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE TRICKY PART OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE PRECIP TYPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON THIS POINT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAIN VS SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IS LOWER AT THIS TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MARTIN && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF KGTF AND KLWT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS KGTF AROUND 20Z AND KLWT AROUND 22Z MONDAY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE MONTANA PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTING KGTF OR KLWT IS VERY LOW. VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KHLN AND KBZN. JASZKA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 25 46 24 45 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 23 44 21 43 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 23 43 23 44 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 15 37 13 38 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 7 29 10 30 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 16 36 17 40 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 24 46 22 43 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 22 43 21 40 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1118 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS IN FOG. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 16Z. UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 ADDED THREE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO THOSE COUNTIES AND REPORTS OF DENSE FOG SPREADING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WERE HARLAN...FRANKLIN...WEBSTER. A STRATUS DECK OVER POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN KEEPING THE FOG AWAY IN THAT AREA AND THE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK OUT OF OUR NORTHEAST IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO THIS PASSING FRONT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BRINGING THE CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS EXPECTED TOWARD MID DAY. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FAY SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1003 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS IN FOG. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 16Z. UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 ADDED THREE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO THOSE COUNTIES AND REPORTS OF DENSE FOG SPREADING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WERE HARLAN...FRANKLIN...WEBSTER. A STRATUS DECK OVER POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN KEEPING THE FOG AWAY IN THAT AREA AND THE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK OUT OF OUR NORTHEAST IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO THIS PASSING FRONT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS 16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FAY SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
810 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 809 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS IN FOG. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 16Z. UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 ADDED THREE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO THOSE COUNTIES AND REPORTS OF DENSE FOG SPREADING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WERE HARLAN...FRANKLIN...WEBSTER. A STRATUS DECK OVER POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN KEEPING THE FOG AWAY IN THAT AREA AND THE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK OUT OF OUR NORTHEAST IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO THIS PASSING FRONT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS 16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-040- 046-047-060>062-072>076-082>086. KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007. && $$ UPDATE...FAY SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
632 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 626 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 ADDED THREE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO THOSE COUNTIES AND REPORTS OF DENSE FOG SPREADING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WERE HARLAN...FRANKLIN...WEBSTER. A STRATUS DECK OVER POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN KEEPING THE FOG AWAY IN THAT AREA AND THE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK OUT OF OUR NORTHEAST IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO THIS PASSING FRONT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS 16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-083>085. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WESELY SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
554 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO THIS PASSING FRONT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS 16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ADP SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO THIS PASSING FRONT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS 16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
414 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO THIS PASSING FRONT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEST RIGHT NEAR/JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL ADDRESS IN UPCOMING TAFS. MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WONT BE MUCH OF A ISSUE...OTHERS SAY IT WILL. KEPT THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...WILL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF IT DOES OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE SERLY...WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...WESELY AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... BAND OF SNOW WHICH HAS SET UP OVER SANTA FE AREA SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF RELENTING SOON...AND REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR INDICATE AN ADVISORY PROBABLY NECESSARY...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM AS WELL AS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY. HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE BAND PERSISTING THRU AROUND 04Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...500 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE APPEARS THAT TWO PERSISTENT BANDS OF SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR OR OCCASIONALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KFMN AND KSAF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS MAY LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER. MEANWHILE...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN KABQ AND KCQC NOT INDICATIVE OF A EAST CANYON WIND TONIGHT...SO HAVE SCALED BACK THE POTENTIAL IN THE KABQ TAF. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WELL. ALL SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 06Z AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016... .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION... A TRAILING BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHWEST AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE WHISKING SOUTHEASTWARD. AROUND 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE JEMEZ. THUS...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW RECENTLY ACCUMULATED...AS SKIES CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE CASE IN ALBUQUERQUES NE HEIGHTS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS...TOO. MODELS NOW SHOW SUNDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TOO FAR NORTH OF NM FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH A SIMILAR LOOK TO TODAYS ONGOING SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLIP NE NM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA WILL TAPER OFF WHILE LINGERING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN MTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE ROUGHLY 3 TO 8 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 1 FT. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN THE OTHER STORY TODAY...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY TREND LIGHTER AND WARMER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND 20S. THIS ALONG WITH SNOWMELT WILL HELP WITH IMPROVING RH RECOVERIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VERY DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE AS WELL INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. GUYER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511-512-518. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
500 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE APPEARS THAT TWO PERSISTENT BANDS OF SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR OR OCCASIONALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KFMN AND KSAF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS MAY LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER. MEANWHILE...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN KABQ AND KCQC NOT INDICATIVE OF A EAST CANYON WIND TONIGHT...SO HAVE SCALED BACK THE POTENTIAL IN THE KABQ TAF. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WELL. ALL SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 06Z AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016... .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION... A TRAILING BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHWEST AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE WHISKING SOUTHEASTWARD. AROUND 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE JEMEZ. THUS...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW RECENTLY ACCUMULATED...AS SKIES CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE CASE IN ALBUQUERQUES NE HEIGHTS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS...TOO. MODELS NOW SHOW SUNDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TOO FAR NORTH OF NM FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH A SIMILAR LOOK TO TODAYS ONGOING SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLIP NE NM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA WILL TAPER OFF WHILE LINGERING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN MTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE ROUGHLY 3 TO 8 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 1 FT. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN THE OTHER STORY TODAY...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY TREND LIGHTER AND WARMER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND 20S. THIS ALONG WITH SNOWMELT WILL HELP WITH IMPROVING RH RECOVERIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VERY DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE AS WELL INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. GUYER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A STRONG WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH WELL WEST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...REACHING FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1255 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO N AND EVENTUALLY NE AS THE FRONT OOZES SOUTH WITH TIME. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE ON INCREASING SW FLOW...UP TO 35 TO 40 KT AROUND 2 KFT. THE COLUMN DOES STRUGGLE TO SATURATE IN THE 3-10 KFT LAYER. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS DRY ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LAYER AND SO ANY RAIN THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH 12Z. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE QPF FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NONE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. IT WAS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS EVE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A WELL MIXED COLUMN...GIVEN STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A BALMY NIGHT BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP TO THE MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAKES VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTH-TO- SOUTH GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10 DEGREES AS AREAS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE MORE TIME TO HEAT UP BEFORE THE SURFACE WEDGE MOVES IN. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE WEDGE WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR RAIN CHANCES THAT RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. WE STAY SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY BUT MODELS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER OMEGA FIELDS SO QPF PROSPECTS SEEM LOW EVEN THOUGH ACTUAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING RAINFALL REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED. QPF IS ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT DECENT TOTALS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF RANGE OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE (NOT SURFACE) FEEL MOST OF THAT REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY YIELDING ANOTHER GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BY WEDNESDAY MAY PRECLUDE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO STACKED LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY ON WED. THE SYSTEM LIFTS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WED MORNING. A MODEST INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR...SETTING UP A TYPICAL WINTER TIME HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THE LOW WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE TOTAL QPF MAY END UP BEING ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEING SPREAD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A WRAP AROUND DRY SLOT WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO ACQUIRE SOME NEGATIVE TILT BUT THIS LIKELY OCCURS TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT THU AND FRI WITH COLD ADVECTION DROPPING TEMPS BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THU CONTINUES THROUGH FRI NIGHT KEEPING THE REGION DRY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK NEAR CLIMO BUT DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ON MONDAY WITH LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND SHOWERS. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ANY IMPACT ON ANY TERMINALS WOULD BE NULL. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS VEERING AND BECOMING WESTERLY...NORTHERLY...AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND -RA/VCSH. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN...LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ANTICIPATED THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1255 AM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH 5 AM. SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST WATERS NEAR 12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO N AND EVENTUALLY NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 20 KT...BUT SW WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 15KT THROUGH THE VEER AND WAVE FACES MAY STEEPEN SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL HEIGHT TO STAY FAIRLY STEADY. LIGHTER WINDS ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BACKS UP INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL SLACKEN THE GRADIENT UP AND DOWN THE COAST. ADDITIONAL VEERING AND POSSIBLE SPEED INCREASES AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND A STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME LURKS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED WILL APPROACH 30 KT LATE WED AND WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS OVER 10 FT WED WITH ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUING INTO FRI MORNING. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF SCA HEADLINE THROUGH THE END OF THU NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND GRADIENT START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...COLBY NEAR TERM...RJD/8 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST FROM ROLLA SOUTH TOWARD THE JAMESTOWN AREA WHERE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW EXISTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...AND WHERE TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LESS THAN 5 F AS OF 0330 UTC. HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING SOME FOG IN THOSE AREAS. OTHER- WISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WE DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY AFTER 09 UTC IN SOUTHWEST ND USING A TIME-LAGGED...RAPID-REFRESH-BASED SUITE OF GUIDANCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN ND HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 22 UTC...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS THE NEAR-GROUND LAYER COOLS...CAUSING AT LEAST A WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION TO FORM PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE REGION WITH ANOTHER POISED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A STRATO-CU FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TO THE WEST GUST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE MIXING WELL AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST AFTER SUNSET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS NORTH. THE CONSALL GUIDANCE GAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. ON WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. OVERALL ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT FOR SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A QUIET BUT COOL DAY THURSDAY AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE AND CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM...BUT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S...BUT A BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST...BUT SEASONABLE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES VALLEY AS COOLER AIR BEGINS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A COOL SPELL. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 5 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS. COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND KEEPS ANY WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE FROM TAKING HOLD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AROUND KJMS /THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW/. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT IN THE LOWER CEILINGS THOUGH GIVEN A LACK OF STRATUS OBSERVED UPSTREAM WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 926 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NORTH OF DULUTH AT MID AFTN. SNOW HAS EXITED THE EASTERN FCST AREA AFTER A NARROW AREA OF 6 INCH SNOWFALL NR ROSEAU- WARROAD-LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. SOME DRYING NOTED COMING SOUTH IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER AND DRYING IS FCST VIA HRRR TO MOVE INTO NW MN THIS EVENING. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL BE HOWEVER. CLOUD BAND LOCATED IN ERN ND NORTH INTO PARTS OF MANITOBA BTWN BRANDON AND WINNIPEG AND THIS CLOUD AREA IS MOVING SOUTH AND MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ERN ND FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING. SO AT FIRST SKY COVER TONIGHT MAY BE RATHER CHAOTIC. NOT A LOT OF COLD ADVECTION BUT ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. NEXT SHORT WAVE PRETTY WELL DEFINED MOVING INTO ECNTRL ALBERTA. NO PRECIP YET NOTED WITH SYSTEM VIA OBS OR CANADIAN RADAR. BUT THIS UPPER SYSTEM DOES STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO CNTRL ND 18Z-21Z PERIOD THEN INTO ERN SD WED EVENING. WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS WITH THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS IN AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7 TO 7.5C/KM 700-500 MB)...CONCERN AGAIN WILL THIS OCCUR AGAIN. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND DOES APPEAR MAIN RISK IS CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD BRUSHING SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHC OF 1 INCH OF SNOW (JMS-ABR-ATY REGION). DID INCREASE POPS WED 12-18Z IN WRN FCST AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO RRV WED AFTN/NIGHT. FAR ERN FCST AREA ON THE EDGE WITH SYSTEM AS BEST AREAS FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT UNDERDONE SO WENT A TAD HIGHER. BUT IF FULL SUN COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY... MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SATURDAY COULD EVEN BE WARMER THAN THE BLENDED SOLUTION HIGHS IF WE GET SOME SUN OVER OUR NO SNOW AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PHASED AND AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BRINGING DOWN A STRONGER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. CONSIDERING THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH WARMER AND MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER BLENDED SOLUTION AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. CLEARING ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH DVL ON THE FRINGE. ANOTHER AREA OF CLEARING ALONG THE RED RIVER ON THE MN SIDE INCLUDING TVF. OTHERWISE A FEW PATCHES OF VFR IN AN OTHERWISE MVFR CLOUD SHIELD. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON WHETHER LOWER CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN SO CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH ON CLOUD TRENDS LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MORE PESSIMISTIC POTENTIAL OF CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN BUT WILL OF COURSE MONITOR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NORTH OF DULUTH AT MID AFTN. SNOW HAS EXITED THE EASTERN FCST AREA AFTER A NARROW AREA OF 6 INCH SNOWFALL NR ROSEAU- WARROAD-LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. SOME DRYING NOTED COMING SOUTH IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER AND DRYING IS FCST VIA HRRR TO MOVE INTO NW MN THIS EVENING. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL BE HOWEVER. CLOUD BAND LOCATED IN ERN ND NORTH INTO PARTS OF MANITOBA BTWN BRANDON AND WINNIPEG AND THIS CLOUD AREA IS MOVING SOUTH AND MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ERN ND FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING. SO AT FIRST SKY COVER TONIGHT MAY BE RATHER CHAOTIC. NOT A LOT OF COLD ADVECTION BUT ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. NEXT SHORT WAVE PRETTY WELL DEFINED MOVING INTO ECNTRL ALBERTA. NO PRECIP YET NOTED WITH SYSTEM VIA OBS OR CANADIAN RADAR. BUT THIS UPPER SYSTEM DOES STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO CNTRL ND 18Z-21Z PERIOD THEN INTO ERN SD WED EVENING. WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS WITH THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS IN AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7 TO 7.5C/KM 700-500 MB)...CONCERN AGAIN WILL THIS OCCUR AGAIN. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND DOES APPEAR MAIN RISK IS CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD BRUSHING SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHC OF 1 INCH OF SNOW (JMS-ABR-ATY REGION). DID INCREASE POPS WED 12-18Z IN WRN FCST AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO RRV WED AFTN/NIGHT. FAR ERN FCST AREA ON THE EDGE WITH SYSTEM AS BEST AREAS FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT UNDERDONE SO WENT A TAD HIGHER. BUT IF FULL SUN COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY... MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SATURDAY COULD EVEN BE WARMER THAN THE BLENDED SOLUTION HIGHS IF WE GET SOME SUN OVER OUR NO SNOW AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PHASED AND AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BRINGING DOWN A STRONGER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. CONSIDERING THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH WARMER AND MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER BLENDED SOLUTION AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. CLEARING ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH DVL ON THE FRINGE. ANOTHER AREA OF CLEARING ALONG THE RED RIVER ON THE MN SIDE INCLUDING TVF. OTHERWISE A FEW PATCHES OF VFR IN AN OTHERWISE MVFR CLOUD SHIELD. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON WHETHER LOWER CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN SO CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH ON CLOUD TRENDS LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MORE PESSIMISTIC POTENTIAL OF CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN BUT WILL OF COURSE MONITOR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DID EXPAND POPS A BIT TO THE SOUTH FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM CROSBY TOWARD TIOGA AND NEW TOWN AS OF 05 UTC. THE 00 UTC GFS HAS SIMULATED THIS ACTIVITY WELL AND TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TOWARD CARRINGTON BETWEEN 09 AND 12 UTC. EARLIER WE THOUGHT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING SINCE IT HAD A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO IT IN NORTHEASTERN MT...BUT THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE. WE ARE ADVERTISING A BIT SLOWER HOURLY INCREASE TO POPS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND...WHERE FLURRIES HAVE ONLY BEGUN BEING REPORTED BY THE ROLLA AWOS AT 0315 UTC. ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...WE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ND AS EVENING TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROWING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF MUCH FOG FORMATION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 STRATUS THINNED AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 2230 AND 2330 UTC...SO THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON REFINING SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN EXPECTATION THAT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT REDEVELOP DESPITE SUNSET. THAT IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND ESPECIALLY ON RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH BEST MATCH THOSE TRENDS. WE ALSO ADDED A LOW-END POP FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST ND THROUGH 03 UTC BASED ON CONVECTIVE-LOOKING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 AT 2 PM CST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. TO THE EAST A LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDS BRING LIKELY POPS TO A SMALL REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. ON MONDAY EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. COOLER NORTH AND EAST UNDER CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 THE LONG TERM APPEARS MILD AND QUIET. A FEW FASTING MOVING WAVES MAKE SPARK SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. A TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE A RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO FAMILIAR WINTER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY LIFT LATE...BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CENTRAL INTO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW STRATUS IS BEING ADVERTISED BY MODELS FOR MONDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1110 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM CROSBY TOWARD TIOGA AND NEW TOWN AS OF 05 UTC. THE 00 UTC GFS HAS SIMULATED THIS ACTIVITY WELL AND TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TOWARD CARRINGTON BETWEEN 09 AND 12 UTC. EARLIER WE THOUGHT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING SINCE IT HAD A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO IT IN NORTHEASTERN MT...BUT THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE. WE ARE ADVERTISING A BIT SLOWER HOURLY INCREASE TO POPS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND...WHERE FLURRIES HAVE ONLY BEGUN BEING REPORTED BY THE ROLLA AWOS AT 0315 UTC. ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...WE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ND AS EVENING TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROWING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF MUCH FOG FORMATION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 STRATUS THINNED AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 2230 AND 2330 UTC...SO THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WAS ON REFINING SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN EXPECTATION THAT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT REDEVELOP DESPITE SUNSET. THAT IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND ESPECIALLY ON RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH BEST MATCH THOSE TRENDS. WE ALSO ADDED A LOW-END POP FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST ND THROUGH 03 UTC BASED ON CONVECTIVE-LOOKING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 AT 2 PM CST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. TO THE EAST A LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDS BRING LIKELY POPS TO A SMALL REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. ON MONDAY EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. COOLER NORTH AND EAST UNDER CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 THE LONG TERM APPEARS MILD AND QUIET. A FEW FASTING MOVING WAVES MAKE SPARK SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. A TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE A RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO FAMILIAR WINTER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY LIFT TONIGHT...BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR THROUGH 12 UTC WITH LOCAL MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WARM AIR BUILDING ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING WARMING. ALSO...H850 WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV AND ITS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USED PRIMARY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF REGION TUESDAY EVENING. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG LLJ WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES ON WEDNESDAY PROGGED TO RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...WILL CREATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPING REGIONS...AND MAY TEMPORARILY INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THE START...BUT WILL CHANGE WITH TIME AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS SOMEWHAT...AND ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCES. MAY NOT HAVE GONE QUITE WARM ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS MENTIONED...RATHER GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ. LOOKING LIKE WE COULD HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...IF NOT AREA WIDE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RAIN...WILL POSE A RISK FOR TREES TO COME DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE HWO...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECTING FALLING TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS IN CAA FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GENERALLY ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY...WITH BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MOUNTAIN ZONES WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE BETTER TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WE HAVE KEPT THE SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR THURSDAY EVENING WITH MODELS SHOWING AMPLE LIFT/RH INTO PART OF THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO VARIOUS SPOKES OF ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF WITH SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT. SOME COATINGS ARE ENVISIONED OVER THE LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION CODED UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE WIND POTENTIAL. A STOUT 50 KT LLJ WILL ROTATE THRU AND WITH A FAVORABLE CROSS FLOW AMID A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THINKING GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY FRIDAY BUT STILL LOOKING QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DAY AND NIGHT. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW TAKING HOLD. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY. MONDAYS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 09Z TUESDAY...STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT COULD ENHANCED THE LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS AT 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET 12Z TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST 06Z TO 12Z ON THE LIGHT NORTH DAMP FLOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WARM AIR BUILDING ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING WARMING. ALSO...H850 WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV AND ITS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USED PRIMARY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF REGION TUESDAY EVENING. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG LLJ WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES ON WEDNESDAY PROGGED TO RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...WILL CREATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPING REGIONS...AND MAY TEMPORARILY INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THE START...BUT WILL CHANGE WITH TIME AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS SOMEWHAT...AND ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCES. MAY NOT HAVE GONE QUITE WARM ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS MENTIONED...RATHER GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ. LOOKING LIKE WE COULD HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...IF NOT AREA WIDE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RAIN...WILL POSE A RISK FOR TREES TO COME DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE HWO...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECTING FALLING TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS IN CAA FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GENERALLY ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY...WITH BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MOUNTAIN ZONES WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE BETTER TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH STRONG WNW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY THURS EVENING...GRANTED IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH H850 FLOW PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS WED THROUGH LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER UPPER LOW EQUATORWARD LATE SAT INTO SUN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER BRINGING ANYTHING TO OUR DOORSTEP...SO WILL MORE OR LESS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY. MONDAYS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 09Z TUESDAY...STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT COULD ENHANCED THE LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS AT 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET 12Z TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST 06Z TO 12Z ON THE LIGHT NORTH DAMP FLOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1234 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS (MAINLY IN INDIANA) AND STRATUS (NORTHERN OHIO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO) HAVE COMPLICATED THE CLOUD FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS IN PARTICULAR HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF DISSIPATION...AND IS ACTUALLY STARTING TO SPREAD FURTHER INTO CENTRAL OHIO. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT RAP DATA...SOME CLOUDS MAY PERSIST (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA) THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FORCED A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES THERE...WITH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE APPEARING ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR COULD ACTUALLY EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE MAX TEMPS NEAR 50 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WEAK CAA OVER NRN OHIO HAS PRODUCED SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO...CENTRAL OHIO AND THE WHITEWATER VALLEY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE E DURING THE DAY. CI CLOUDS LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. YESTERDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WHERE TEMPERATURES GOT WARMER THAN FORECAST. BUMPED UP PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO AROUND 50 IN NRN KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... INVERTED SFC TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER ERN KY INTO WEST VA. THIS FUNNELS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE FA...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE W AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE MID 30S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. ON TUESDAY...H5 S/W WORKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO TX. AS THIS OCCURS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN ERN TX IN RESPONSE. THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH JUST INCREASE CLOUDS AS STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE BOOSTED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE H5 LOW KICKS OUT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A DEEP LOW RACES TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSSES IT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRACK OF THE LOW TAKES IT ACROSS OHIO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PCPN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER THE SFC LOW PASSES BY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY INTO SE CANADA. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING COLD BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO DIGGING S/W WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH THRU OHIO VALLEY SAT AFTN/EVENING. HAVE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL THIS STRONG FRONT AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMP WISE...IN CAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SOME MODERATION SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRATUS CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE BROKEN UP THIS MORNING...BUT SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CUMULUS / STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED. THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE TAF SITES...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM EAST TO WEST...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) CEILINGS IS EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR CINCINNATI...WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LONGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY COME BACK BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WARM AIR BUILDING ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING WARMING. ALSO...H850 WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WV AND ITS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. USED PRIMARY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOOKS LIKE OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BECOME JAMMED UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND A WINTRY MIX IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS RATHER LACKING WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. I HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS...AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR 60 IN SOME OF THE MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS. OUR NEXT LARGE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE WAY OF FLOODING. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT...TRACKING A STRONG ANOMOUSLY LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50 - 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO CONCERNING WILL BE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THE HWO. WITH SOILS NEARLY SATURATED IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE FLOODING...AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY LOW. WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THERE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIP VALUES ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FOR NOW GUIDANCE IS INDICATING TWO QPF MAXIMUMS...ONE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE OTHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW. IN THESE AREAS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WITH EFFICIENT RUNOFF DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THAT JUST SAW AREAS OF FLOODING YESTERDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH STRONG WNW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY THURS EVENING...GRANTED IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH H850 FLOW PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS WED THROUGH LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER UPPER LOW EQUATORWARD LATE SAT INTO SUN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER BRINGING ANYTHING TO OUR DOORSTEP...SO WILL MORE OR LESS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY. MONDAYS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 09Z TUESDAY...STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT COULD ENHANCED THE LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS AT 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET 12Z TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST 06Z TO 12Z ON THE LIGHT NORTH DAMP FLOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK/SL LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1213 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... GOING TO RUN WITH CURRENT FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS AS IT LOOKS GOOD FOR THE COMPLEX LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. SAT IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING OBFUSCATED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE SHOWS PATCHY/SPORADIC LOW STRATUS/FOG. THE DRIER AIR/LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS TRYING TO MAKE IN-ROADS SOUTH. BOTH PKB AND UNI CLEARED OUT...BUT THEN FOG TRIED TO FORM...BEFORE DRIER AIR FOUGHT BACK. STRONG DEW POINT GRADIENT JUST S OF CKB TO N OF HTS. RAP 925 MB FORECAST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY...SO THINKING THE DRIER AIR WILL WIN - IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES. STRATUS/FOG MAY FIGHT HARDER FURTHER S TOWARD HTS IN THE DAMPER GROUND. SAME CONFLICT FOR CLARKSBURG-GRAFTON AREA...BUT THINKING DRY AIR HAS A BETTER BET OVER THE FOG/STRATUS IN THAT VICINITY. HOWEVER...FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF WEST VIRGINIA...PLAYING STRATUS AND FOG HARDER INCLUDING CRW TO EKN TO BKW. WILL MENTION SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT HIGHER IN THESE INTERIOR COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY CRW ON S INTO COAL FIELDS. AT 02Z THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE ON SUNDAY RUNNING FROM CKB TO HTS NEAR 00Z. HELD ONTO LIKELY POPS ALONG THAT BAND FOR A FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR TRYING TO NOSE SOUTH FROM THE MID OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ATHENS TO PARKERSBURG VICINITY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOOKS LIKE OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BECOME JAMMED UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND A WINTRY MIX IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS RATHER LACKING WITH THIS FIRST WAVE AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. I HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS...AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR 60 IN SOME OF THE MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS. OUR NEXT LARGE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE WAY OF FLOODING. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT...TRACKING A STRONG ANOMOUSLY LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50 - 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO CONCERNING WILL BE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THE HWO. WITH SOILS NEARLY SATURATED IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE FLOODING...AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY LOW. WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THERE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIP VALUES ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. FOR NOW GUIDANCE IS INDICATING TWO QPF MAXIMUMS...ONE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE OTHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW. IN THESE AREAS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND WITH EFFICIENT RUNOFF DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THAT JUST SAW AREAS OF FLOODING YESTERDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH STRONG WNW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY THURS EVENING...GRANTED IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH H850 FLOW PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS WED THROUGH LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER UPPER LOW EQUATORWARD LATE SAT INTO SUN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER BRINGING ANYTHING TO OUR DOORSTEP...SO WILL MORE OR LESS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY. MONDAYS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 09Z TUESDAY...STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT COULD ENHANCED THE LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS AT 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET 12Z TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST 06Z TO 12Z ON THE LIGHT NORTH DAMP FLOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/SL/DTC NEAR TERM...KTB/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ/MPK/SL LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
923 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS (MAINLY IN INDIANA) AND STRATUS (NORTHERN OHIO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO) HAVE COMPLICATED THE CLOUD FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS IN PARTICULAR HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF DISSIPATION...AND IS ACTUALLY STARTING TO SPREAD FURTHER INTO CENTRAL OHIO. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT RAP DATA...SOME CLOUDS MAY PERSIST (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA) THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FORCED A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES THERE...WITH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE APPEARING ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR COULD ACTUALLY EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE MAX TEMPS NEAR 50 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WEAK CAA OVER NRN OHIO HAS PRODUCED SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO...CENTRAL OHIO AND THE WHITEWATER VALLEY. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE E DURING THE DAY. CI CLOUDS LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. YESTERDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WHERE TEMPERATURES GOT WARMER THAN FORECAST. BUMPED UP PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO AROUND 50 IN NRN KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... INVERTED SFC TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER ERN KY INTO WEST VA. THIS FUNNELS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE FA...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE W AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE MID 30S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. ON TUESDAY...H5 S/W WORKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO TX. AS THIS OCCURS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN ERN TX IN RESPONSE. THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH JUST INCREASE CLOUDS AS STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE BOOSTED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE H5 LOW KICKS OUT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A DEEP LOW RACES TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSSES IT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRACK OF THE LOW TAKES IT ACROSS OHIO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PCPN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER THE SFC LOW PASSES BY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY INTO SE CANADA. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING COLD BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO DIGGING S/W WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH THRU OHIO VALLEY SAT AFTN/EVENING. HAVE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL THIS STRONG FRONT AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMP WISE...IN CAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SOME MODERATION SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TWO DIFFERENT STRATUS DECKS AFFECTING TAF SITES THIS MORNING. FIRST AOA 1KFT WILL EXIT CENTRAL OHIO TAFS AND SKIRT KILN BEFORE DISSIPATING AND REMAINING E OF THESE SITES. SECOND IS AOA 3KFT AND BREAKING UP OVER THE KDAY AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ERODE. CI WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND SOME FAIR WX CU COULD DEVELOP FROM 2-3KFT TODAY BUT SHOULD NOT EVOLVE BEYOND FEW-SCT AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND THE CI WILL HAMPER LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING TODAY. CI SHIELD SHOULD SEE THE BACK EDGE CROSS THE REGION AROUND 3Z TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES IN ITS WAKE COULD PERMIT SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO AFFECT TAF SITES BEFORE DAYBREAK. KCVG WILL SEE SC DECK AROUND 2KFT ENTER THE AREA AROUND 12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE CONDENSES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1249 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP IN TERMS ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. CURRENT NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THIS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...TO BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY IN A REGIME LACKING MOISTURE AND FORCING. POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PROVIDING THICKENING CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY...BOOSTED TO THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VLY TO EJECT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS NE INTO THE REGION. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLN WHICH TAKES THE DEEP SFC LOW INTO SRN OHIO BY WED EVENING. FORCING IS ENHANCED BY H8 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 45-50 KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE. BASED ON THIS CLUSTERING OF SOLN/S WILL RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. DUE TO WAA WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO TIMING OF CHANGE OVER. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY INTO SE CANADA. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING COLD BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO DIGGING S/W WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH THRU OHIO VALLEY SAT AFTN/EVENING. HAVE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL THIS STRONG FRONT AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMP WISE...ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HIGHS ON WED WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. IN CAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SOME MODERATION SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND KEEP A NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERMIT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ADVECT A LOW STRATUS DECK TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE 3KFT STRATUS DECK OVER NW OH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A FAVORABLE MOTION TO AFFECT KDAY THIS MORNING. CI WILL STREAM OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND SOME FAIR WX CU COULD DEVELOP FROM 2-3KFT TODAY BUT SHOULD NOT EVOLVE BEYOND FEW-SCT AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND THE CI WILL HAMPER LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING TODAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
845 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY, TD, WIND, AND TEMP GRIDS. PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW. && .DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE MID TO UPPER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW IS NOW BEING OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OK BUT SFC WETBULBS ARE TOO HIGH ACROSS OUR FA. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NW OK AND SKIES ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CLEAR THERE SO EXPECT SOME MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S BY EARLY MORNING THERE AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. ADJUSTED WINDS THROUGH 12Z CLOSER TO THE HRRR OUTPUT SINCE IT APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THEM. THE SAME WAS DONE FOR DEWPOINTS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WERE MADE, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS NW OK. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 34 57 32 / 100 10 0 0 HOBART OK 48 32 60 31 / 30 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 46 35 60 34 / 100 10 0 0 GAGE OK 52 26 59 26 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 49 32 55 30 / 20 10 0 0 DURANT OK 45 37 57 36 / 100 70 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 03/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.... && .AVIATION... A RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE FAIRLY QUICK DETERIORATION OF FLYING CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHRA INTO N TX AND S OK BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN THE RN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE GENERAL...SPREADING AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS KCSM-KGOK-KSWO BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS...NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. CMS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/ UPDATE... INCREASED HIGHS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AND CONFINED THEM TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. APPEARS ANY RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 100 J/KG OR LESS...SO THUNDER IS UNLIKELY BEFORE 6 PM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 6 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP RAPIDLY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR. THUS...INCREASED HIGHS GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/ DISCUSSION... 22/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z ALTHOUGH VFR CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN EXPECTED TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z AND SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TERMINALS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVALENT AFTER 06Z ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL TOWARD AND AFTER 04-06Z. WILL NOT MENTION TSRA IN TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SW/W TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/ DISCUSSION... OVERALL...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO FORECAST. CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IMPACTS SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WET DAY MOST AREAS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW WORDING IN FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE...THAT WE NORMALLY LIKE TO SEE LEADING INTO WINTER WEATHER EVENTS OVER OUR REGION...THE ANOMALOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING...LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND FORMATION OF TROWAL LATE TUESDAY WILL LEAD US TO MENTION AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SNOW NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 IN OKLAHOMA. GREATER IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE TROWAL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND DRIER LOWER LEVEL AIR IS TAPPED. MODEL TRENDS OF COOLER COLUMN AND LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CANNOT BE IGNORED. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED SNOW POSSIBILITIES WEST. IF WE DO GET A TRANSITION TO SNOW ON NORTH/NORTHWEST SIDE OF INTENSE MID- LEVEL LOW...PRIMARILY IMPACTS WILL BE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED OBJECTS/TREES/GRASS... PERHAPS TWO OR THREE INCHES. IF THERE ARE HEAVY ENOUGH BANDS OF SNOW...BRIEF SLUSHY ROADWAYS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE HAZARDS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN AREA OF CONCERN...AND THE FACT THAT GROUND TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM...ANY SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG. WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER DAY WITH INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT REGION NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 39 45 35 / 0 80 70 40 HOBART OK 60 38 46 33 / 10 80 70 20 WICHITA FALLS TX 63 42 47 37 / 10 90 90 40 GAGE OK 59 34 48 27 / 10 50 50 10 PONCA CITY OK 59 39 49 33 / 0 50 40 20 DURANT OK 61 44 47 38 / 20 90 90 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 17/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... INCREASED HIGHS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AND CONFINED THEM TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. APPEARS ANY RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 100 J/KG OR LESS...SO THUNDER IS UNLIKELY BEFORE 6 PM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 6 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP RAPIDLY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR. THUS...INCREASED HIGHS GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/ DISCUSSION... 22/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z ALTHOUGH VFR CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN EXPECTED TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z AND SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TERMINALS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVALENT AFTER 06Z ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL TOWARD AND AFTER 04-06Z. WILL NOT MENTION TSRA IN TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SW/W TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/ DISCUSSION... OVERALL...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO FORECAST. CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IMPACTS SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WET DAY MOST AREAS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW WORDING IN FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE...THAT WE NORMALLY LIKE TO SEE LEADING INTO WINTER WEATHER EVENTS OVER OUR REGION...THE ANOMALOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING...LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND FORMATION OF TROWAL LATE TUESDAY WILL LEAD US TO MENTION AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SNOW NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 IN OKLAHOMA. GREATER IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE TROWAL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND DRIER LOWER LEVEL AIR IS TAPPED. MODEL TRENDS OF COOLER COLUMN AND LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CANNOT BE IGNORED. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED SNOW POSSIBILITIES WEST. IF WE DO GET A TRANSITION TO SNOW ON NORTH/NORTHWEST SIDE OF INTENSE MID- LEVEL LOW...PRIMARILY IMPACTS WILL BE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED OBJECTS/TREES/GRASS... PERHAPS TWO OR THREE INCHES. IF THERE ARE HEAVY ENOUGH BANDS OF SNOW...BRIEF SLUSHY ROADWAYS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE HAZARDS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN AREA OF CONCERN...AND THE FACT THAT GROUND TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM...ANY SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG. WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER DAY WITH INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT REGION NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 39 45 35 / 0 80 70 40 HOBART OK 60 38 46 33 / 10 80 70 20 WICHITA FALLS TX 63 42 47 37 / 10 90 90 40 GAGE OK 59 34 48 27 / 10 50 50 10 PONCA CITY OK 59 39 49 33 / 0 50 40 20 DURANT OK 61 44 47 38 / 20 90 90 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 17/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
618 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX COULD SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAPS MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL TURN WINDY AND WET WITH A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS OVER TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE /1026 MB/ EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...EAST TO THE SWRN CORNER OF QUEBEC PROVINCE EARLY TODAY. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A SHALLOW WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN...WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE LATE FEB NORMALS. ASIDE FROM SOME AREAS OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU...A FEW BRIEF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS TODAY...IT WILL STAY DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MOISTURE DEEPENS STEADILY VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE WELL INLAND OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAURELS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW/FZDZ IN THE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/PL AND --SN POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING SSERLY FLOW IN THE 2-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL TRANSPORT A WEDGE OF MILDER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR INTO THE REGION AT THAT LEVEL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT LEADING TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS 18Z TUE - 00Z WED...AS HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. SLIGHT COOLING OF THE NEAR SFC LAYER WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE 29-33F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND NRN/WRN ALLEGHENIES TUESDAY NIGHT...CREATING THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT GLAZING FROM --FZRA OR FZDZ. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MIDWEEK STORM IS STILL PROGGED BY ALL 22/00Z-06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FCST SYSTEMS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER TEXAS AND TRACK NE - ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE 12Z TUES-12Z THU TIMEFRAME. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD CLUSTERING OF THE FCST LOW POSITION OVER NWRN PENN BY ABOUT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS (3-4 SIGMA) STRONG CORE OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS /AND HIGH PWAT AIR/ EXTENDING UP THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO ERN PENN. THERE IS STRONG GEFS...SREF AND EC CONSENSUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD COVERING 12Z WED - 12Z THU...WITH VERY LOW PROBS FOR 2 INCHES (MORE LIKE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR MAX AMOUNTS IN MANY PLACES AS SUGGESTED SIMPLY BY THE ). THE SFC LOW WILL STILL BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN NYS AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION THU MORNING...AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A TOUGH CALL ON VSBY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH KMDT AND KLNS. THV REMAINS AT MVFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE REST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DRY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SO EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDS...HOWEVER HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP IN BETWEEN 10Z TO 13Z. THE OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW AND A COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT POINT TOWARD ARND A 50 PCT POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 06Z-13Z. ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 18Z ON MONDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY. OUTLOOK... TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA. WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE. THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS. FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
230 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GLAKES IS PUSHING COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD STAY MSTLY CLEAR THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE SOME AREAS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN. THE COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKES WILL TRIGGER A FLURRY OR TWO TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S. FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU. AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT. MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5 RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT. TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A TOUGH CALL ON VSBY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH KMDT AND KLNS. THV REMAINS AT MVFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE REST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DRY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SO EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDS...HOWEVER HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP IN BETWEEN 10Z TO 13Z. THE OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW AND A COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT POINT TOWARD ARND A 50 PCT POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 06Z-13Z. ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 18Z ON MONDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY. OUTLOOK... TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA. WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE. THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS. FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
105 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FINAL SHOWER REMNANTS TRACKING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GLAKS IS NUDGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKES WILL TRIGGER A FLURRY OR TWO TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S. FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU. AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT. MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5 RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT. TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A TOUGH CALL ON VSBY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH KMDT AND KLNS. THV REMAINS AT MVFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE REST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DRY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SO EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDS...HOWEVER HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP IN BETWEEN 10Z TO 13Z. THE OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW AND A COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT POINT TOWARD ARND A 50 PCT POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 06Z-13Z. ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 18Z ON MONDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY. OUTLOOK... TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA. WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE. THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS. FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
657 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC LOW JUST WEST OF NATCHEZ MS AT THIS TIME. THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW IS NOTICEABLY STRONGER THAN THE MODEL PROGS. THOSE MODEL PROGS STILL BRING A GOOD ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CURRENT MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AL...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD. HRRR IS ALSO IN LINE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVING OUR WAY. ON THE WATER VAP IMAGERY...YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN TX. PVA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE AND THEREBY...YOU HAVE A STRONGER SFC LOW. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND RESIDES ABOVE STRONG LOWER LEVEL AND UP TO 850 MB FORCING. 90+ MRH AREA IS RATHER EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD COVER THE MID STATE THROUGH ABOUT 9Z. LOOKING AT FFG LEVELS...THE DATA WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR IS THE THRESHOLD. FOR 6 HRS...2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES IS NEEDED. BEST INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL REACH INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 10 PM. TSTM FORMATION WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. OTW...NO FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED GOING FORWARD. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AROUND 1 INCH TOTAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW BUT WILL BE REISSUING THE SPS BY 10 PM WHEN IT EXPIRES. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE SPS WITH THAT UPCOMING ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. EXPECTING RAPID INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF -SHRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STRONG SFC LOW PUSHES TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH -TSRA AT BNA/CSV BY 05/06Z. CURRENT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WITH MVFR/IFR VIS AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT BNA/CSV...WHILE SFC LOW PASSING NEAR CKV WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 50 51 37 41 30 / 100 100 60 20 0 CLARKSVILLE 47 52 34 40 26 / 100 100 50 20 0 CROSSVILLE 53 53 33 36 24 / 100 100 70 40 20 COLUMBIA 50 50 36 40 29 / 100 100 50 20 0 LAWRENCEBURG 50 50 36 40 29 / 100 100 60 20 0 WAVERLY 46 50 35 40 28 / 100 100 50 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31 LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1238 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AFFECTING FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT FORECAST CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN NUDGING UP TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH A DEGREE BASED ON CURRENT OBS...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA WILL WORK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING SPREADING LIGHT RAIN NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK UP ALONG INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT FOR NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE WITH IFR AT CROSSVILLE. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
955 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AFFECTING FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT FORECAST CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN NUDGING UP TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH A DEGREE BASED ON CURRENT OBS...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. DEW POINTS ARE COMING DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT ONLY MID AND HIGH CIGS AT CKV AND BNA, LOWER CIGS AT CSV WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE PLATEAU AND KEEPING CIGS IFR OR BELOW AT CSV THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AVIATION.........................01/BOYD SHORT/LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
459 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... A LITTLE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY HAS FINALLY TRICKLED OUT OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS LEAVING CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE AREN`T FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARMTH TONIGHT BUT WE ARE STILL RUNNING A SOLID 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE A FEW WILD CARDS IN TODAY`S FORECAST...STARTING WITH POPS TODAY. WHILE WE ARE IN A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH COULD BRING SOME SMALL POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING MORE THAN THAT. IN FACT...THE HRRR IS NOW SUGGESTING WHAT THE EURO HAS BEEN HINTING AT THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND THAT`S CONSIDERABLY MORE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS GIVING THEM SHOWERS AND A FEW TS THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR...SO WILL FOLLOW MORE OF THIS THINKING FOR TODAY`S POP FORECAST -- MINUS THE THUNDER -- ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS WE MOVE TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS MEANS A DRY PERIOD PRIOR TO NOON...BUT WE QUICKLY HAVE TO START FOCUSING UPSTREAM AGAIN AND THE BIG SYSTEM OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY INTENSE SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING OVER EAST TEXAS AND BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MIDDLE TN SHOULD BEGIN SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES NEWD AND TRACKS OVER OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONE WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE US FROM ANY MENTION OF SEVERE. WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER WORDING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE MID-STATE. AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE REGION AND UP THE EAST COAST...IT CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT. THE FORECAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 975-980MB. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TO ME THAT THE WRAP AROUND CAA WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS CHANGEOVER AS WELL. IF THERE`S ANY GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO ATTM I`M NOT EXPECTING WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS OR ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MID-STATE. HOWEVER...ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS LINGERING SNOW WILL BE A POSSIBILITY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAIN REARS ITS HEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST RAIN ATTM. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. DEW POINTS ARE COMING DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT ONLY MID AND HIGH CIGS AT CKV AND BNA, LOWER CIGS AT CSV WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE PLATEAU AND KEEPING CIGS IFR OR BELOW AT CSV THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08 LONG TERM..................UNGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
328 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... A LITTLE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY HAS FINALLY TRICKLED OUT OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS LEAVING CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE AREN`T FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARMTH TONIGHT BUT WE ARE STILL RUNNING A SOLID 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE A FEW WILD CARDS IN TODAY`S FORECAST...STARTING WITH POPS TODAY. WHILE WE ARE IN A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH COULD BRING SOME SMALL POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING MORE THAN THAT. IN FACT...THE HRRR IS NOW SUGGESTING WHAT THE EURO HAS BEEN HINTING AT THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND THAT`S CONSIDERABLY MORE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS GIVING THEM SHOWERS AND A FEW TS THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR...SO WILL FOLLOW MORE OF THIS THINKING FOR TODAY`S POP FORECAST -- MINUS THE THUNDER -- ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS WE MOVE TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS MEANS A DRY PERIOD PRIOR TO NOON...BUT WE QUICKLY HAVE TO START FOCUSING UPSTREAM AGAIN AND THE BIG SYSTEM OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY INTENSE SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING OVER EAST TEXAS AND BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MIDDLE TN SHOULD BEGIN SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES NEWD AND TRACKS OVER OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONE WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE US FROM ANY MENTION OF SEVERE. WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER WORDING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE MID-STATE. AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE REGION AND UP THE EAST COAST...IT CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT. THE FORECAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 975-980MB. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TO ME THAT THE WRAP AROUND CAA WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS CHANGEOVER AS WELL. IF THERE`S ANY GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO ATTM I`M NOT EXPECTING WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS OR ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MID-STATE. HOWEVER...ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS LINGERING SNOW WILL BE A POSSIBILITY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAIN REARS ITS HEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST RAIN ATTM. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLDS AND VSBYS WILL STILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CONDENSATION DEFICITS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH...A SFC LOW WILL WORK ACROSS AL AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CSV AREA LATE IN THE TAF PD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 56 42 59 52 56 / 0 20 60 90 80 CLARKSVILLE 54 37 55 49 50 / 0 10 60 90 80 CROSSVILLE 54 45 55 51 58 / 20 40 50 90 90 COLUMBIA 56 44 57 52 54 / 20 20 70 90 80 LAWRENCEBURG 56 45 59 52 54 / 30 30 70 90 80 WAVERLY 55 39 56 49 51 / 0 10 70 90 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21 LONG TERM..................UNGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/ UPDATE... AT 8 PM... SURFACE ANALYSIS STRETCHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS NORTHEAST TO CAMDEN TENNESSEE. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY EASE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WHILE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH. ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. ALSO SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. STILL...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. ZDM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/ DISCUSSION... A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID WEEK COULD BRING BOTH A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER TO THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CAMDEN TENNESSEE TO WYNNE ARKANSAS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW THIS BAND BLOSSOMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR ABERDEEN TO GREENVILLE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. THERE ARE ALSO MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ARKLATEX AREA 18Z TUESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. BEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUPELO INCLUDING CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES. SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUTTING OFF SO THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES GET AN INCH AS THE MODELS LOOK RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE WAY OR THE OTHER COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER SEVERE WEATHER OR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. KRM && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. VCSH AT TUP POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT MEM SHORTLY BUT PERSIST AT TUP. IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT TUP. NNE WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 4-7 KTS AFTER 23/00Z. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT. THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90. ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS. FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 41 64 39 / 100 70 10 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 66 42 65 35 / 100 70 - 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 43 66 36 / 100 50 - 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 59 40 62 36 / 100 60 10 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 70 42 67 36 / 80 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 41 63 36 / 100 70 10 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 41 67 32 / 100 20 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 43 65 36 / 100 60 - 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 69 45 64 37 / 90 70 10 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 71 44 66 36 / 100 40 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 44 68 36 / 90 30 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR... BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS... FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES... KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK... MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON... ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
808 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 NOT A BIG UPDATE TONIGHT. AS PER GOING FORECAST...SNOW DIMINISHING WHILE MOVING TOWARD EASTERN WISCONSIN. CAMS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW WET ROADS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RADARS SHOWING A TAD CONVECTIVE LOOK AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA. SOME MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WITH SLIGHT 850 WAA INTO COLDER H7 TEMPS OF -14 C. ISSUED A SPS FOR NC WI FOR AN INCH OR TWO THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...A FEW HOLES BRIEFLY OPEN UP BUT SAT TRENDS DO NOT SHOW SIG CLEARING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. STILL LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY PRODUCING SOME 3-5 MILE MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF COAST. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES NORTH. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE SHEARED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UNTIL IT DOES SO...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND COULD CLIP THE SHORELINE AROUND MANITOWOC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN VILAS CO. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY. SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND THE FOX VALLEY. CONTINUED MILD TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE WEEKEND FORECAST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUM SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH RESPECT TO THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDS/WEDS NGT. STILL ONLY EXPECTING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN EC WI ON WEDS/WEDS NGT...AND GALES ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM...SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VILAS COUNTY THU/THU NGT. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO +2 TO +6 C ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GET WELL INTO THE 40S IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE 50 DEGREES AT THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRACK TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH COUPLED UPPER JETS AND SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 511 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 A WEAK TROUGH WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LOWER END VFR CIGS THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE DUE TO STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........TDH SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
528 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT AND THE VERY SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WERE FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS EDGING EAST ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...BUT SHOULDN/T AMOUNT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY AROUND 1/2 INCH OR LESS. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TO ABOVE FREEZING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AT THIS TIME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING ONLY SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 SM RANGE. ALSO...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO LIFT IN THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER...THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE IS VERY LOW. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MANY AREAS PROBABLY WON/T FALL BELOW FREEZING. A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO US BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. OTHER THAN THE INCREASING WINDS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...ESSENTIALLY LEAVING US BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. PLAN ON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 40S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 13 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THEN FLATTENS AND EDGES EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IF THE FORECAST MODELS HOLD...SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING WEATHER DAY. A COLD FRONT THEN DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS WAVE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A QUICK HITTER BUT COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR EXACT DETAILS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM SYSTEM. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WAS PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF IT AND AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA. THE 23.22Z HRRR SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING SO WILL CARRY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KRST UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS EVENING AND JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN AT KLSE THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING. CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE PRETTY MUCH MVFR BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY GOING DOWN OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE 23.21Z RAP SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KRST. EXPECTING KLSE TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL GO AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND THEN INCREASE TO OVER 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
512 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF COAST. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES NORTH. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE SHEARED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UNTIL IT DOES SO...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND COULD CLIP THE SHORELINE AROUND MANITOWOC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN VILAS CO. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY. SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND THE FOX VALLEY. CONTINUED MILD TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE WEEKEND FORECAST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUM SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH RESPECT TO THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDS/WEDS NGT. STILL ONLY EXPECTING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN EC WI ON WEDS/WEDS NGT...AND GALES ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM...SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VILAS COUNTY THU/THU NGT. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO +2 TO +6 C ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GET WELL INTO THE 40S IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE 50 DEGREES AT THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRACK TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH COUPLED UPPER JETS AND SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 511 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 A WEAK TROUGH WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LOWER END VFR CIGS THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE DUE TO STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY OF GREEN BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AROUND THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND FAR NE WI WILL HOVER OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. OTHER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL EXIST OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE THIS TOO EXITS EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS FROM EITHER FEATURE...PERHAPS JUST A DUSTING. THEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT...A RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM LEAVES ME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. IF SKIES DO CLEAR FOR A PERIOD...TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE MORNING AND COULD SEE THE PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N-C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY THE START OF THE EVENING. MILD FEBRUARY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 MAIN FCST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND HOW SIGNIFICANT THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY MINOR PCPN CHANCES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A GLANCING BLOW IN EAST CENTRAL WI FROM THE LARGE OHIO VALLEY STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN VILAS COUNTY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CIPS ANALOGS SHOWED A 70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW OVER VILAS COUNTY...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT STALL IT OVER ILLINOIS AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND RIDES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PREVENTS A BIG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...AND ALSO PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOWSTORM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE PATTERN HOLDS...THERE WOULD PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH THE RRQ OF A STRONG UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SUSPECT IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WE GET A DECENT HANDLE ON THE FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR AS THE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS THIS EVENING AS WELL...WHICH COULD LEAVE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THINKING THAT SCT VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS TO LOWER AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1113 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HELP FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW IS REACHING AREAS FROM VILAS COUNTY TO IRON MOUNTAIN. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTATED ALMOST NORTH-SOUTH OVER NORTH- CENTRAL WI. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE FROM WAUPACA TO JUST NORTH OF GREEN BAY. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT SNOW TRENDS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TONIGHT...THE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH HANGING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO HOLD UP THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHILE GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP AROUND IT. WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. BEST CHANCES RESIDE IN A CORRIDOR FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT THIS AREA COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY SINCE THE TROUGH IS SUCH A SMALL SCALE FEATURE. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW COULD ALSO IMPACT EASTERN WI THAT COULD LEAD TO A DUSTING. INCREASED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. MONDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAKING SNOWFALL CHANCES THE HIGHEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH TWO OR THREE TENTHS IN THE AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROLONG SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING. BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER OR NOT THE POWERFUL OHIO VALLEY STORM WILL CLIP EAST CENTRAL WI ON WED/WED NGT...POSSIBLE GALES ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATE WED-THU NGT AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MERGING WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD BRING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND CLIPS EAST CENTRAL WI WITH THE NW PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE ON WED AND WED NGT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE LAKESHORE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY NGT. A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER NC WI ON THU/THU NGT...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN VILAS COUNTY. GFS AND ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF H8 TEMPS AROUND -30 C SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MODEL BLEND TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE MODELS SHOW CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN ON LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 MAINLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPPING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
119 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS SLOWLY BEGUN LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR AN ATL-AGS-MYR LINE LATE THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE- BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY 12Z. EXPECT WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE CSRA TOWARD SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF 36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH GENERAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS AROUND 0.40 OF INCH. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WAS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS AND LLWS THROUGH 18Z...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL GA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO AGS/DNL AROUND 08Z...THEN SPREAD INTO CAE/CUB/OGB BETWEEN 09 AND 10Z. LLWS IS ALSO A CONCERN AS WINDS A 2KFT ARE CURRENTLY 40 KNOTS. WINDS AT 5 KFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE HIGHER WIND SPEED MIX TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND VEER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOUTHERLY AT 20 GUSTING 30KT AT SUNRISE...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 25 GUSTING UP TO 35 BY 17Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 17Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
442 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT LEANED ON CONSENSUS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS. FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240900Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 TWEAKED KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... RADAR AND RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS RAIN SHIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT PERHAPS LAF BY ISSUANCE TIME. ALSO...TRENDS SUGGEST VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DETERIORATE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LATER THAN 12Z. THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LAF SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE THE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW OR A MIX. KEPT 15Z AS A START TIME FOR THE MIX THERE WITH ALL SNOW BY 18Z. HUF SHOULD CHANGE OVER AFTER 18Z AND IND AND BMG SHOULD NOT CHANGEOVER UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IS NOT GREAT AS A SMALL ERROR IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...FELT IT WOULD BE PRECIPITATING OVER A MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND DID NOT TRY AND GET CUTE WITH TIMING ANY BRIEF DRY PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING A FEW KNOTS TODAY AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT LAF WITH LESSER GUSTS AT THE OTHER SITES. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>040-045>047-051>054-060-061-067. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-035-036-043-044. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...MK/JH AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 The main concern remains the potent storm system over our region this morning. This system contains a variety of potential hazards, including heavy snow, strong winds, heavy rain, and thunder. The heavy rain and thunder appear to be the least significant at this time. The main focus of this forecast package is on the winter weather and strong wind potential. As of 08z, the surface low was deepening rather rapidly along the Tennessee/Kentucky border near khop. RAP model data indicated the central pressure fell about 10 mb between 00z and 08z. A strong northerly low-level jet exists on the northwest side of the low. Winds aloft are forecast near 50 knots at 1000 feet agl over se Missouri this morning. There have been a few reports of 40 knot gusts in southeast MO overnight, including the kpof asos site. Model guidance indicates these strong wind fields will expand northeast across southern IL this morning. Although winds aloft will begin to weaken as they spread east this afternoon, lapse rates will steepen in the cold advection pattern. Due to more efficient momentum transfer/mixing, the Wind Advisory may need to be expanded further east across KY and into southwest IN today. Widespread moderate rain overnight has begun to change to snow in the hilly terrain of se Missouri. Around 08z, snow was reported north and west of kpof in Wayne and nw Butler Counties. At the same time, a mid-level dry slot has begun to work north across the Bootheel of Missouri. It appears the dry slot will move north- northeast in tandem with the strong mid-level low. A band of moderate to heavy precip has been organizing on the northwest side of the dry slot. The potential for a band of heavy snowfall exists under this deformation band. Mesoscale discussion 136 from the SPC contains the details on this heavy snow threat. A Winter Storm Warning will be issued for small parts of se Missouri and srn Illinois, where the deformation zone is expected to slowly organize through mid-morning. This area is generally along and northwest of a line from kcgi to kmvn. Hilly terrain in this area will provide a little extra orographic lift, along with colder temps at higher elevations. Although surface and pavement temps will be at or above freezing, snowfall rates around an inch per hour for several hours should overcome the ground warmth. The Winter Weather Advisory will continue for the rest of southeast MO and southern IL, where some bursts of snow are possible in the more unstable air within the dry slot. One last sidenote, the Winter Storm Warning will replace the Wind Advisory, since the wind hazard is covered by the warning. The main area of precip will exit our region by early this afternoon, but areas of lighter precip will continue to wrap south-southeastward around the departing occluded low through tonight. Most of this wrap-around precip will be along and east of the Mississippi River, and mainly in the form of snow. However, surface temps are forecast to remain above freezing for most of the night. Any additional snow amounts are forecast to be less than one-half inch and mainly in southwest IN and the Pennyrile region. Therefore, the winter headlines will not be extended into the night with this forecast package. There may be some lingering light snow showers in the EVV area and Pennyrile region of west KY on Thursday. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday as surface high pressure builds east across our region. Forecast highs will be lowered a notch for Thursday based on anticipated snow cover in some areas. In addition, forecast 850 mb temps of minus 10 do not support highs in the 40s, especially with the anticipated cloud cover. With increasing sun and moderating 850 mb temps on Friday, highs will be in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 Above average confidence in the long term. High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the region dry through Sunday. With the approach and passage of a frontal system Sunday night, precipitation chances will be small due to a lack of moisture. High pressure in the wake of the front will keep the region dry through at least Monday, and maybe even Monday night. Models not in good agreement regarding the results of a cold front dropping southward out of the northern plains Monday into Monday evening. The GFS brings the front across our CWA dry while the ECMWF brings the front into our CWA, then stalls it out E-W. After midnight Monday night the ECMWF brings a swath of QPF quickly eastward along the boundary across our CWA while the GFS continues to be dry. With so much disparity, decided to keep it dry Monday night. Models show the aforementioned frontal boundary lifting back to the north as a warm front on Tuesday. Again the GFS remains dry with the fropa while the ECMWF cranks out precipitation for basically the entire area. Decided to split the difference in this period and go with small pops. Temperatures will remain above normal through the long term period, and thankfully any precipitation that falls should be of the liquid variety. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1148 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 Expect MVFR and IFR cigs/vsbys through the period with perhaps some LIFR cigs as a strong storm system and its associated precipitation impact the Quad State area. Conditions will deteriorate this morning as northerly winds gradually increase and become gusty. Rain will transition to snow from west to east, starting in SE MO in the morning and finally changing near KOWB and KEVV by the evening. Snow and sustained winds AOA 15 kts will continue until Wednesday night when the system exits to the east. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075>078-080>086-088-089-092-093. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ076>078-082-083- 085>094. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075-080- 081-084. MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ100-107>112-114. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086- 087. IN...NONE. KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>006. && $$ SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...BP2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
406 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S. TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS HAD SUGGESTED. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE BRIEF TIMES OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AS WELL IN LIGHT SNOW OR UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR AT KIWD AND KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WED AFTERNOON AT KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 406 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER W KY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT TONIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO EXITS INTO N QUEBEC. THE RESULT WILL BE N-NE GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS TO THE GULF COAST FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WHILE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES N ONTARIO. SW GUSTS COULD NEAR 30KTS FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEARS LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-267. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...07 MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 .AVIATION... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS LIKELY TOPPING 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS SE MI FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WED MORNING. ATTM...PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WED MORNING AROUND DETROIT...AND MAINLY SNOW AT PTK/FNT/MBS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS BOTH SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES AT PTK/FNT/MBS. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVY AND WET. FOR DTW...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP ONSET BETWEEN AROUND 11Z...LIKELY BEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES AT METRO WILL BE RIGHT ON THE BORDER BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR BY MID WED AFTERNOON. IF THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCURS MORE QUICKLY...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. * LOW IN TIMING THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 957 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 UPDATE... NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL AWAIT THE ANALYSIS OF THE FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP NOW SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995MB SFC LOW OVER NRN MISSISSIPPI. THE LAST FEW SFC ANALYSES AND RECENT SFC PRESSURE CHANGE SUGGEST THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO WRN TENNESSEE/WRN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. SUGGESTING THE MORNING GFS RUN MAY INDEED BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST...YET ALSO RAISING SOME CONCERNS THE ECMWF MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR EAST. THIS DOES SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FLUCTUATE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND BACK AT TIMES...WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST /MONROE TO DOWNTOWN DETROIT/ POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL RAIN INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FULLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE THERMAL PROFILE AS THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ANN ARBOR TO PORT HURON LINE/. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW AND STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT SOLID WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. AS FAR AS THE EVENING UPDATE...THE RECENT HRRR AND 00Z NAM ARE PICKING UP ON THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR /NOTED ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING/. THIS WILL SUPPORT BACKING OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS BY A COUPLE HOURS. THE LEAD EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AROUND 11Z...THEN LIFT INTO FLINT AND PORT HURON AROUND 13Z. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 DISCUSSION... A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH HIGHLY SENSITIVE THERMAL FIELDS...AS THE INTERACTION OF THREE KEY UPPER LEVEL PLAYERS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA...AS EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS IN MID LEVELS. SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH MINNESOTA EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND FORCE THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CIRCULATION IS QUICKLY TIGHTENING UP AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN GULF STATES. THE BIG ISSUE IS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY QUICKLY UNRAVELS AND EXPANDS OUTWARD...WITH THE EXCELLENT FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENT ADVANCING NORTH...ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PW VALUES PUSHING TOWARD 0.75 INCHES...AND 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RUNNING AROUND 4 G/KG...AND EVEN MAYBE APPROACHING 5 G/KG DOWNRIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES WARMTH...AND WILL BE TOWING THE LINE WITH THE 0 C ISOTHERM ACROSS A VERY DEEP LAYER. THE GFS AND NAM MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY PRONOUNCED...AS 925-850 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF THE GFS ARE A GOOD 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE NAM OVER WAYNE COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS A BIT OF A WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND WITH THE GEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM...FORECAST WAS SKEWED ON THE COLDER SIDE...AS THE 12Z EURO HAS COME IN LINE WITH ITS 00Z RUN. THE HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE AT 6Z WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BORDER...AS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TOO DEEP AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW (983 MB)...LIKELY SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHILE THE EURO IS MUCH FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER AT 990 MB. LATEST RAP13 IS IN LINE WITH THE EURO MAGNITUDE BUT IN THE MIDDLE FOR LOCATION. EXPECTATIONS ARE THE COLD DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FEED DOWN LOW SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD WET BULBING WITH LEAD SURGE OF MOISTURE/ACTIVITY TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER (MONROE/WAYNE/LENAWEE COUNTIES)...AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO IMPINGE ON THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF PRECIPITATION DOES TAPER OFF AND SHUT DOWN...SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1 TO 5 INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. HIGHER END IF WE STAY MOSTLY SNOW AND DON`T MIX...LOWER END WITH MIXTURE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE BEING ALL SNOW...WITH LONGER DURATION OF FORCING. ALTHOUGH THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD SAGINAW BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THE QUESTION MARK IS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SETTLING BACK SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THIRD UPPER LEVEL PLAYER CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON ACTS AS THE KICKER AND ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SET IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE SNOW BY AROUND NOON. WITH MUCH OF THE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE CONSISTENT EURO...TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 POINT TO STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF SAGINAW BAY/LAKE HURON DURING WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORES...BUT WITH THE WET NATURE OF SNOW...LACK OF BLOWING SNOW INITIALLY...VISIBILITIES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 1/4SM FOR ANY EXTENDED TIME...AND HELD OFF ON BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS IS SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS CAN LOOK AT CLOSELY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A CANADIAN LOW DROPS OVER THE DAKOTA`S AND BEGINS ITS EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD MICHIGAN. THIS LOW...WHICH INITIALLY LOOKED FAIRLY WEAK...NOW APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HEARTY. IT BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE... DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE ON INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECTING GALES ON LAKE HURON WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HYDROLOGY... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A LONGER DURATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IMPACTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RAIN SNOW LINE STILL IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO RUN THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM ABOUT PORT HURON SOUTH THROUGH DETROIT. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY. EVEN IF IT FELL ALL AS RAIN...WOULD ONLY EXPECT THE ROUGE RIVER TO COME NEAR FLOOD STAGE. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ076-082. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ060>063-068>070-075. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-363- 421-422-441-462. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ361-442- 443-463-464. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC UPDATE.......SC DISCUSSION...SF/DE MARINE.......DRC HYDROLOGY....DRC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE: Issued at 839 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Upper level low was now over southwest AR with a deep surface low ahead of it over northwest MS. Rain was spreading northward into parts of southeast MO and southwest IL with a narow band of rain extending from Linn to Elsberry MO, just west of the St Louis metro area. Latest HRRR model runs spread precipitation through southeast MO and southwest IL late tonight, including most of the St Louis metro area with St Charles county being the western edge of the persistent precipitation shield. The rain should change over to snow over most of the area late tonight leading to potentially hazardous driving conditions Wednesday morning. Snowfall rates may be quite high across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL Wednesday morning and may have to increase snow amounts a little mainly south and east of STL. Will continue Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Advisory for late tonight and Wednesday for southeast MO and southwest IL, including the St Louis metro area. GKS && .SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Have made some significant adjustments to the forecast that include metro St. Louis. A winter weather advisory and a wind advisory has already been issued for late tonight and tomorrow. Water vapor shows that the upper low is bottoming out over the Southern Plains that will move northeast tonight and tomorrow morning through the Mid South into the Ohio Valley. The 12Z run of the GFS showed a slight shift to the northwest with the axis of the precipitation whereas the 12Z ECMWF is slightly farther to southeast. GFS is showing intense frontogenesis that will move along the northwestern edge of precipitation band from the eastern Ozarks into central Illinois including the St. Louis metro area from 09-15Z that will likely be producing heavy precipitation rates. Forecast soundings indicate that this will be snow. The latest runs from the HRRR, WRF, and RAP all are supporting this, showing mesoscale banding moving up into eastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois late tonight and early Wednesday. So expect precipitation to move into the area this evening and overnight through the morning hours, with more snow now given the amount of forcing and slightly colder soundings. This now justifies issuing an advisory for the southeastern half of the CWA of snowfall amounts. There will be a time in the morning where the snow could be heavy at times with big wet heavy flakes. It will also be windy as the pressure gradient will be tightening as the surface low deepens. Have also issued a wind advisory for the same location as the winter weather advisory. Have lowered temperatures below guidance. Temperatures will be hampered from rising tomorrow by the clouds and the precipitation. Precipitation will end from west to east during the afternoon as the system begins to lift out of the area. Britt .LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Still looks like we will stay dry from Thursday into Saturday as there will not be much moisture to work with under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will go from below normal to back above normal for the weekend. Still looks like a system will bring us a chance of precipitation on Sunday night. Britt && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016 Based on a variety of guidance the previous forecast looks to be in pretty good shape. The low pressure system was located in western TN at 06z and lifting northeastward. It will continue to move northeastward and deepen through the forecast period. Rain had already spread into southern IL and southern MO and will continue to move north and fill in across the St. Louis metro area between 06-08z. Present indications are that the rain will change to snow across far eastern MO into southwest IL in the 09-10z period and then continue through the morning, tapering off by early afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate lowering to IFR once the change to snow occurs. The snow should remain east of KCOU and south of KUIN. Northerly winds have been increasing this evening and will continue to ramp up overnight with strong and gusty north-northwest winds lasting through the day on Wednesday. Specifics for KSTL: Rain was encroaching on KSTL from the northwest and southeast and should move into the terminal between 06-08z. Present indications are that the rain will change to snow in the 09-10z period and then continue through the morning, tapering off by early afternoon. Flight conditions will deteriorate, lowering to IFR once the change to snow occurs. Northerly winds have been increasing this evening and will continue to ramp up overnight with strong and gusty north-northwest winds lasting through the day on Wednesday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO- Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO. IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Madison IL- Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL- Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL- Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL- Montgomery IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1046 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AS REMAINING BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SHRINK. ADDED FREEZING FOG TO SOME NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS COLD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO...THANKS TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION...1042 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016... .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE LAST SMALL BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WEST OF KAEG LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BR AND FZFG HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BANDS EXISTED...INCLUDING AROUND KFMN AND KSAF. THESE TWO SITES WILL LIKELY WAFFLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ATTEMPTED TO INDICATE AS SUCH IN GOING TAFS. EVENTUALLY...INCOMING DRIER AIR SHOULD CLEAR THEM OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THAT WILL BE. LESS ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE IN OVERHEAD. LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL...BUT COULD SEE SOME WESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NE NM WED EVENING BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE N AND NE. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...546 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016... .UPDATE... BAND OF SNOW WHICH HAS SET UP OVER SANTA FE AREA SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF RELENTING SOON...AND REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR INDICATE AN ADVISORY PROBABLY NECESSARY...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM AS WELL AS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY. HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE BAND PERSISTING THRU AROUND 04Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016... .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION... A TRAILING BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHWEST AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE WHISKING SOUTHEASTWARD. AROUND 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE JEMEZ. THUS...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW RECENTLY ACCUMULATED...AS SKIES CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE CASE IN ALBUQUERQUES NE HEIGHTS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS...TOO. MODELS NOW SHOW SUNDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TOO FAR NORTH OF NM FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH A SIMILAR LOOK TO TODAYS ONGOING SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLIP NE NM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA WILL TAPER OFF WHILE LINGERING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN MTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE ROUGHLY 3 TO 8 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 1 FT. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN THE OTHER STORY TODAY...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY TREND LIGHTER AND WARMER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND 20S. THIS ALONG WITH SNOWMELT WILL HELP WITH IMPROVING RH RECOVERIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VERY DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE AS WELL INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. GUYER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE LAST SMALL BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WEST OF KAEG LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BR AND FZFG HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BANDS EXISTED...INCLUDING AROUND KFMN AND KSAF. THESE TWO SITES WILL LIKELY WAFFLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS. ATTEMPTED TO INDICATE AS SUCH IN GOING TAFS. EVENTUALLY...INCOMING DRIER AIR SHOULD CLEAR THEM OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THAT WILL BE. LESS ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME CIRRUS MOVE IN OVERHEAD. LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL...BUT COULD SEE SOME WESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NE NM WED EVENING BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE N AND NE. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...546 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016... .UPDATE... BAND OF SNOW WHICH HAS SET UP OVER SANTA FE AREA SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF RELENTING SOON...AND REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR INDICATE AN ADVISORY PROBABLY NECESSARY...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM AS WELL AS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY. HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE BAND PERSISTING THRU AROUND 04Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MST TUE FEB 23 2016... .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION... A TRAILING BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHWEST AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE WHISKING SOUTHEASTWARD. AROUND 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE JEMEZ. THUS...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW RECENTLY ACCUMULATED...AS SKIES CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE CASE IN ALBUQUERQUES NE HEIGHTS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS...TOO. MODELS NOW SHOW SUNDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TOO FAR NORTH OF NM FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH A SIMILAR LOOK TO TODAYS ONGOING SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLIP NE NM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA WILL TAPER OFF WHILE LINGERING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN MTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE ROUGHLY 3 TO 8 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 1 FT. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN THE OTHER STORY TODAY...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY TREND LIGHTER AND WARMER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COLDEST IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND 20S. THIS ALONG WITH SNOWMELT WILL HELP WITH IMPROVING RH RECOVERIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VERY DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE AS WELL INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING BETTER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR. GUYER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
359 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT AND THU. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY... ...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT 850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM. MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH 11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS. SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION) ...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40- 45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8PM OR SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE41-48 RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY... SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY... COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO 65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY... COLD AIR DAMMING...AND ASSOCIATED COOL AND SATURATED AIR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 2000-2500 FT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS IN THE INVERSION LAYER WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 9-12Z...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH; AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY WINDY...WARM...AND HUMID REGIME --ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS OR OCCASIONAL SCATTERING TO VFR-- AND STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 11-14Z AT FAY AND RWI; 12-15Z AT RDU...AND 14-17Z AT GSO/INT. IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE SC STATE LINE. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BASED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY NOT POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF STORMS BETWEEN 15-22Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SWATHS OF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS...WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...26/MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT AND THU. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY... ...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT 850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM. MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH 11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS. SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION) ...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40- 45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8PM OR SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE41-48 RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY... ...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY... THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE TN-LOWER OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW (SUB 990MB) AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. THESE STRONG SLY SF WINDS WILL AID TO SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SLY SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS 35-40MPH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR A SOLID 9-12 HOURS. THUS PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC (EXCLUDING THE NW PIEDMONT) FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SLY WINDS WILL USHER A MOIST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. NEAR SURFACE S-SE WINDS COUPLED WITH A SLY LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS 50-60KTS WILL CREATE A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT BY THE LARGE TURN HODOGRAPHS. WHILE KINEMATICS ARE QUITE STRONG...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED AS SLIGHT AT BEST. STILL...CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATICS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MID- LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST RUN OF WRF MODELS AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF TWO LINES OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE REGION...THE FIRST IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER CROSSING THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. THE KINEMATICS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS WITH SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT OCCUR. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH WILL OCCUR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS WHAT TO QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL CAD AIR MASS OVER THE TRIAD BUT CONSIDERING HOW ENTRENCHED THE CAD IS PRESENTLY...THE EFFECTS OF THE CAD MAY LINGER LONGER...LIMITING THE ABILITY OF THE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WHILE THE RESIDUAL CAD MAY INITIALLY PROTECT THE TRIAD WHEN THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES IN LATE MORNING...THE SECOND LINE (IF IT FORMS) MAY HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN THE TRIAD LATER IN THE DAY. A MAY STABLE DIRE AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY EVENING-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING TO DISSIPATE REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND CLEARING SKIES WEST-TO-EAST. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH EXPECTED... IN THE EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY... SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY...A WINDY AND CHILLY 50 TO 55. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S. COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO 65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY... COLD AIR DAMMING...AND ASSOCIATED COOL AND SATURATED AIR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 2000-2500 FT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS IN THE INVERSION LAYER WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 9-12Z...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH; AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY WINDY...WARM...AND HUMID REGIME --ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS OR OCCASIONAL SCATTERING TO VFR-- AND STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 11-14Z AT FAY AND RWI; 12-15Z AT RDU...AND 14-17Z AT GSO/INT. IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE SC STATE LINE. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BASED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY NOT POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF STORMS BETWEEN 15-22Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SWATHS OF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS...WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 STRONG S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ADVANCING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ND NOW THROUGH 12Z...THEN INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL 12-18Z. MODELS ARE TRYING TO PORTRAY A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...AND HARD TO ARGUE WITH A LACK OF LIGHT SNOW OBSERVED CURRENTLY UPSTREAM NEAR THE WAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME FLURRIES/SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CENTRAL AND EAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST FROM ROLLA SOUTH TOWARD THE JAMESTOWN AREA WHERE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW EXISTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...AND WHERE TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LESS THAN 5 F AS OF 0330 UTC. HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING SOME FOG IN THOSE AREAS. OTHER- WISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WE DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY AFTER 09 UTC IN SOUTHWEST ND USING A TIME-LAGGED...RAPID-REFRESH-BASED SUITE OF GUIDANCE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN ND HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 22 UTC...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS THE NEAR-GROUND LAYER COOLS...CAUSING AT LEAST A WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION TO FORM PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEGINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE REGION WITH ANOTHER POISED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A STRATO-CU FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TO THE WEST GUST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE MIXING WELL AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST AFTER SUNSET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS NORTH. THE CONSALL GUIDANCE GAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. ON WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EAST WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. OVERALL ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT FOR SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A QUIET BUT COOL DAY THURSDAY AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE AND CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM...BUT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S...BUT A BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST...BUT SEASONABLE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES VALLEY AS COOLER AIR BEGINS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A COOL SPELL. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 5 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS. COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND KEEPS ANY WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE FROM TAKING HOLD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA. LOW IFR CIGS AND FOG FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND KJMS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT IN THE LOWER CEILINGS THOUGH GIVEN A LACK OF STRATUS OBSERVED UPSTREAM WITH THE FRONT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WEST...THEN CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NW FA OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NORTH OF DULUTH AT MID AFTN. SNOW HAS EXITED THE EASTERN FCST AREA AFTER A NARROW AREA OF 6 INCH SNOWFALL NR ROSEAU- WARROAD-LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. SOME DRYING NOTED COMING SOUTH IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER AND DRYING IS FCST VIA HRRR TO MOVE INTO NW MN THIS EVENING. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL BE HOWEVER. CLOUD BAND LOCATED IN ERN ND NORTH INTO PARTS OF MANITOBA BTWN BRANDON AND WINNIPEG AND THIS CLOUD AREA IS MOVING SOUTH AND MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ERN ND FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING. SO AT FIRST SKY COVER TONIGHT MAY BE RATHER CHAOTIC. NOT A LOT OF COLD ADVECTION BUT ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. NEXT SHORT WAVE PRETTY WELL DEFINED MOVING INTO ECNTRL ALBERTA. NO PRECIP YET NOTED WITH SYSTEM VIA OBS OR CANADIAN RADAR. BUT THIS UPPER SYSTEM DOES STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO CNTRL ND 18Z-21Z PERIOD THEN INTO ERN SD WED EVENING. WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS WITH THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS IN AREA OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7 TO 7.5C/KM 700-500 MB)...CONCERN AGAIN WILL THIS OCCUR AGAIN. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND DOES APPEAR MAIN RISK IS CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD BRUSHING SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHC OF 1 INCH OF SNOW (JMS-ABR-ATY REGION). DID INCREASE POPS WED 12-18Z IN WRN FCST AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO RRV WED AFTN/NIGHT. FAR ERN FCST AREA ON THE EDGE WITH SYSTEM AS BEST AREAS FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT UNDERDONE SO WENT A TAD HIGHER. BUT IF FULL SUN COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY... MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SATURDAY COULD EVEN BE WARMER THAN THE BLENDED SOLUTION HIGHS IF WE GET SOME SUN OVER OUR NO SNOW AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PHASED AND AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BRINGING DOWN A STRONGER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. CONSIDERING THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH WARMER AND MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER BLENDED SOLUTION AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ALTHOUGH ALL BUT BJI VFR MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS BACK IFR CIGS BACK INTO THE FA TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TAFS. MOST SNOW TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FA. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
308 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... Precipitation is beginning taper off across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. Most of the precipitation has transitioned back to rain at all the observation stations across western Arkansas. The HRRR has the precipitation moving out of the forecast area by 10z. Will be cancelling the Winter Weather Advisory before 8 am expiration time. Same goes for the Wind Advisory. Have not seen any wind gusts in the 40 mph range in some time. Otherwise, skies will clear out from west to east across the area as the storm system currently over western Tennessee moves off to the north-northeast. A cold front will move through the region Tonight and will keep temperatures generally below normal for this time of year through Friday morning. A warm up ensues Friday and especially over the weekend as the low level winds become south-southwesterly. Another cold front moves through the region Sunday night with no precipitation expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come as we move into the Tue-Wed time frame as the next storm system approaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 51 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 54 31 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 54 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 45 28 45 25 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 46 30 45 26 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 53 32 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 48 30 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 F10 55 33 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 56 34 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ001- 002-010-011-019-020. Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ARZ001-002- 010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .AVIATION... 2406/2506 TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/ UPDATE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY, TD, WIND, AND TEMP GRIDS. PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW. DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE MID TO UPPER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW IS NOW BEING OBSERVED OVER EASTERN OK BUT SFC WETBULBS ARE TOO HIGH ACROSS OUR FA. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NW OK AND SKIES ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CLEAR THERE SO EXPECT SOME MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S BY EARLY MORNING THERE AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. ADJUSTED WINDS THROUGH 12Z CLOSER TO THE HRRR OUTPUT SINCE IT APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THEM. THE SAME WAS DONE FOR DEWPOINTS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WERE MADE, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS NW OK. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 57 32 53 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 32 60 31 54 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 35 60 34 57 / 10 0 0 0 GAGE OK 26 59 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 32 55 30 50 / 10 0 0 0 DURANT OK 37 57 36 56 / 70 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
411 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TN/KY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG A FAST MOVING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIRECT COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MESO OBS/IRIS DATABASE STILL SHOWING SEVERAL SITES AT 30-33F AT 07Z BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TO THE UPSIDE. CONSIDERED ENDING FZRA ADVY EARLY WITH FREEZING PCPN BEING HIGHLY LOCALIZED...BUT DECIDED TO LET IT RUN THE COURSE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN DELAYS ALREADY IN EFFECT. HRRR KEEPS BAND OF STEADIER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER WRN PA WEST OF I-99 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN RELATIVE PCPN MINIMUM WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WEDGE FRONT/LOW LEVEL CAD SHOULD ERODE FROM SOUTH- NORTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIRES NCAR ENS MEAN LIFTED INDEX. THE STABLE AIR BELOW TYPICALLY STUBBORN INVERSION WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /HIRES ENS MEAN MUCAPES AROUND 500-750 J/KG/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH RAMP-UP OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POWERFUL 100+KT MID/UPPER JET...AND ARRIVAL OF 1-1.5 INCH PWS VIA 60-70KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL OR PRE- FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING EAST- NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RATES/FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY WITH CENTRAL PA FFG VALUES RATHER LOW. THEREFORE WPC HAS MAINTAINED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. UTILIZED WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMTS WHICH RANGE BTWN 0.75 INCHES IN THE LAURELS TO ~ 1.50 INCHES FOCUSED INTO THE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 60KT AND STORM MOTIONS LIKELY OVER 50KT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING/FLOW AND FAVORABLE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIRES GUIDANCE DEPICT A LINE OF LOW TOPPED HEAVY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CROSSING THE CWA BTWN 21-03Z WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN HWO. HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WX RISK SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... PERSISTENT/STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING INTO CENTRAL PA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM TRACKING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY. MARGINALLY WARM BLYR TEMPS AND ROAD SFC MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS INITIALLY. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PA. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN ON FRIDAY AND COME TO AN END FRI NGT AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE NICELY SAT-SUN AS SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN-MON...BRINGING RISK OF RAIN/SNOW TO START NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE SFC PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT NEITHER MODEL INDICATES ANY HIGH IMPACT WX SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT MOVE TO THE NORTH...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY IFR IS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT UNV AND IPT WHICH ARE MVFR. CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ENVELOP CENTRAL PA...ALLOWING FOR IFR BY 10Z. THE BIGGEST ISSUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BEYOND THE LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG...WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA ARE NOT FAR FROM FREEZING...ANY DROP OFF AT ALL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LIGHT ICING. STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRACKS INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LLWS. EXPECT WINDS ALOFT OF 60 TO 70 KTS AROUND 2KFT. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z...AND ENDING BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE REGION. OUTLOOK... WED NGT...WINDY WITH RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005- 006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
446 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM THIS LOWS WITH A COLD STRETCHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE AL/MS LINE AT PRESENT TIME. THE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL TO THE SOUTH. GRADIENT WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND HAVE SEEN GUST AT KCHA ALREADY UP TO 32 KTS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS AT 850 MB IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT FLOW IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE ONLY SEEN A WIND GUST READING OF UP TO 40 KTS AT CAMP CREEK...WINDS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW...THE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHEORM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BEST THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL COME OUT OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. SO FAR...REPORTS AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN LIMITED. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST. PW VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN NEAR 1.25 INCHES WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH IN THESE COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH LATER ON THE DAY SHIFT. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE YET AND WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 18Z. BY THIS TIME...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...DID EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL WRAP COLD AIR IN BEHIND IT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE -10 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE ENHANCED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP THANKS TO THE IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR AT 850 MB. THIS WILL CREATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN/NC LINE...THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SW VIRGINIA. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN/NC LINE. PW VALUES REMAIN LOW AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL ENHANCE PRECIP. DEVELOPMENT. A FEW FACTORS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...THE MAIN ONE BEING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE SNOWFALL. EXPECT ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY WILL RANGE FROM JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA TO A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH FOR THE KNOXVILLE AREA. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR US AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 50`S TO 60`S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THINGS QUIET UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL CHANCES IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME. AT THIS POINT IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEE ALL RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A FEW OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS THAT GET A BIT OF SNOW MIXED IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 37 43 29 / 80 60 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 36 40 28 / 80 70 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 35 40 28 / 90 70 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 32 36 25 / 80 70 70 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE- CLAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-MCMINN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE- NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI- WASHINGTON TN. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK- JOHNSON-MCMINN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER- NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR BRADLEY-EAST POLK- HAMILTON-MARION-WEST POLK. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER- HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON- MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN- UNION-WEST POLK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN. VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RUSSELL- WASHINGTON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-WISE. && $$ MA/ABM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 .UPDATE... FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... MS AT THIS TIME. THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW IS NOTICEABLY STRONGER THAN THE MODEL PROGS. THOSE MODEL PROGS STILL BRING A GOOD ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CURRENT MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AL...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD. HRRR IS ALSO IN LINE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVING OUR WAY. ON THE WATER VAP IMAGERY...YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN TX. PVA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE AND THEREBY...YOU HAVE A STRONGER SFC LOW. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND RESIDES ABOVE STRONG LOWER LEVEL AND UP TO 850 MB FORCING. 90+ MRH AREA IS RATHER EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD COVER THE MID STATE THROUGH ABOUT 9Z. LOOKING AT FFG LEVELS...THE DATA WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR IS THE THRESHOLD. FOR 6 HRS...2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES IS NEEDED. BEST INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL REACH INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 10 PM. TSTM FORMATION WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. OTW...NO FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED GOING FORWARD. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AROUND 1 INCH TOTAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW BUT WILL BE REISSUING THE SPS BY 10 PM WHEN IT EXPIRES. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE SPS WITH THAT UPCOMING ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. ACTIVE WX PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IN STORE AS QUASI STACKED SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE FROM N MS NEWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 25/06Z. BEST PROXIMITY OF SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO MID STATE LOOK TO BE IN THE 24/06Z-24/09Z TIME FRAME. SOME MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR CKV...DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS THRU 25/06Z PER ACTUAL CEILING AND VSBY FLUCTUATIONS. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS CKV/BNA AND LIFR CEILINGS CKV/IFR VSBYS THRU 25/06Z. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO...ACROSS... AND EXITS THE MID STATE REGION...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS...WITH NE/E WINDS SHIFTING TO W/NW AS SYSTEM MOVES NEWD INTO ERN OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 25/06Z. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31 LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 808 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 NOT A BIG UPDATE TONIGHT. AS PER GOING FORECAST...SNOW DIMINISHING WHILE MOVING TOWARD EASTERN WISCONSIN. CAMS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOW WET ROADS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RADARS SHOWING A TAD CONVECTIVE LOOK AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA. SOME MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WITH SLIGHT 850 WAA INTO COLDER H7 TEMPS OF -14 C. ISSUED A SPS FOR NC WI FOR AN INCH OR TWO THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...A FEW HOLES BRIEFLY OPEN UP BUT SAT TRENDS DO NOT SHOW SIG CLEARING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. STILL LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY PRODUCING SOME 3-5 MILE MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF COAST. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES NORTH. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE SHEARED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UNTIL IT DOES SO...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND COULD CLIP THE SHORELINE AROUND MANITOWOC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN VILAS CO. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY. SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND THE FOX VALLEY. CONTINUED MILD TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE WEEKEND FORECAST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUM SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH RESPECT TO THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDS/WEDS NGT. STILL ONLY EXPECTING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN EC WI ON WEDS/WEDS NGT...AND GALES ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM...SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VILAS COUNTY THU/THU NGT. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO +2 TO +6 C ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GET WELL INTO THE 40S IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE 50 DEGREES AT THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRACK TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH COUPLED UPPER JETS AND SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE ON DECREASE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WHILE POCKETS OF VFR CIGS WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. ANTICIPATE MORE LIFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........TDH SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 DECIDED TO START THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR TODAY A FEW HOURS EARLY AS WE WERE GETTING REPORTS OF A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AND ICE COVERING TREES AND POWER LINES IN MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SOME SNOW AND ICE WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGE IMPACTS WEIGHED HEAVILY IN THE DECISION TO START THE HEADLINES EARLY. ALSO...EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE HANCOCK...DELAWARE...HENRY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS ELEVATED SURFACES WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING ICE ACCUMULATION. FOR THE MID- MORNING UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE RAIN SNOW MIX THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE GRIDS. HAVE SEEN MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OVER WARREN AND PORTIONS OF TIPPECANOE...FOUNTAIN AND VERMILLION COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT OF WEST LAFAYETTE AROUND 1045 AM. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT LEANED ON CONSENSUS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS. FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. TRANSITIONED KLAF TO ALL SNOW AND INTRODUCED A RA/SN MIX AT KHUF. POSSIBLE THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN A TOUCH FASTER THIS AFTERNOON AT KIND AND HIGHLIGHTED AS WELL. 12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH IFR CEILINGS RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. KLAF MAY START OUT AS MVFR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AND THEN IFR OR LIFR AFTER THAT AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON KHUF AND CLOSER TO 22Z AT KIND AND KBMG. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA BY 18Z AND TO NORTHERN OHIO BY 00Z AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLAF... OTHERWISE LIGHTER SNOW WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER SITES. MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN ALL AREAS SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO 3 MILES MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT KLAF WITH LESSER GUSTS AT THE OTHER SITES. WINDS MAY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KBMG MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES BY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>042- 045>049-051>054-060-061-067. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031- 035-036-043-044. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...MRD/CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...JH/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1038 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. RAIN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. KFWA ACTUALLY HAD A GUST TO 45 MPH. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED MUCH BELOW ONE HALF MILE YET AND THIS IS A CONCERN. STILL EXPECTING HEAVIEST SNOW TO ROTATE INTO NW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES INCREASE IN SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS. HAND ANALYSIS OF 15Z SFC MAP SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF KSDF WITH AN ELONGATED AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ALONG OH RIVER. BEST PRESSURE FALLS NEAR CLE WHICH SUPPORTS LATEST NAM AND MANY OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE OUTPUT. MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW REMAINS ALONG SHARP TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW OVER CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. WARNING SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL FOR NOW WITH ONLY QUESTION BEING IN THE NORTHEAST. LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST PCPN IN WILLIAMS COUNTY MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH RAIN SOUTH OF THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DRY SLOT WORKING NORTH AND HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN AND RADAR RETURNS WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT AMOUNTS WHERE NO HEADLINES IN EFFECT AND SNOW IS FALLING. THUS PLAN TO KEEP WILLIAMS IN AN ADVISORY BUT WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA CLOSELY. SOME SLEET REPORTS BEING RECEIVED MAINLY ALONG BACK EDGE OF MORE SOLID PCPN SHIELD WHERE DRY SLOT POKING IN. SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL EVAP COOLING IN LOW LEVELS AND LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME REFREEZING BEFORE REACHING GROUND. WILL BE MONITORING LATEST 12Z DATA CLOSELY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 INTENSE SW OVR THE MID MS VALLEY W/ATTENDANT 990MB SFC REFLECTION OVR NW TN DEEPENING RAPIDLY ERLY THIS MORNING. BROAD ARC OF 6MB/3HR PRES FALLS INTO SRN IN/SW OH WITHIN FOCUSED INTENSE WAA ZONE SPURNING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAIN FM ERN IN IN SWD INTO NRN KY. TIGHT/COHERENT NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE SPOT ON W/NWD REACH OF CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY TRENDS FM RAP GUIDANCE SINCE 00Z...SUGGEST FEW CHGS WARRANTED TO EXISTING HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WILL ADD STEUBEN AND HILLSDALE TO CURRENT WARNING HEADLINE AND IN COORDINATION W/ILX/IND/LOT UPGRADE NW IN ZONES TO BZW. SFC LOW OVR NW TN WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD TDA...REACHING NR KCLE BY 00Z AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL PROLONG BOTH STG GRADIENT WINDS AND MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS NW HALF. HWVR EWD WRAP OF SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH ERN OH AND WWD PLACEMENT OF COUPLING W/NRN JET ACRS THE UPR LAKES SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING AND EVEN SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACRS WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. OTRWS COUPLED JET WILL DRIVE INTENSE/DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ESP FM MID MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN NW HALF W/SHARP EWD SNOW CUTOFF TO NOTHING XPCD AS GENERAL STEADYSTATE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FM LOGANSPORT- WARSAW-COLDWATER LINE. IT SHLD BE NOTED HWVR THAT RUC CONTS TO TREND A BIT EWD OF THIS LINE AND IN CONCERT W/AGREEABLE NOD FM 06Z NAM WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST. THAT SAID...BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY NW ZONES COLLOCATED WITHIN INTENSE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND MOST INTENSE GRADIENT FLW. XPC SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LIKELY HERE MID MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN. SECONDARY CONCERN LIES W/EWD PULLOUT OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE OVERNIGHT AND WRN BOUND OF LK ENHANCING MID LVL MSTR PLUME. FLW SLW TO RELAX AND BLIZZARD WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED PENDING HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT TDA AS SOME SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OVR FAR NW ZONES YET DIMINISHES QUICKLY W/INLAND EXTENT. OTRWS STG GRADIENT FLW REMAINS W/RISE COUPLET SLW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH OH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHLD YIELD CONTD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LK ENHANCEMENT SPREADS FURTHER INLAND THU AM AS LL FLW TURNS NWRLY AND XPC MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ADDNL ACCUM W/CONTD GUSTY NW WINDS NOT DIMINISHING UNTIL AFTN. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 REST OF THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. CHANCE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY LOW (AROUND 4 KFT) WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF BAND ORGANIZATION. DID RAISE POPS JUST A LITTLE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...A HALF INCH AT BEST. ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AFTER A FAIRLY PLEASANT SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. PRETTY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SET TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AND GOOD PV ADVECTION BUT EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING RAIN AS PTYPE IF ANYTHING OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT IF POSTFRONTAL DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT...AS ARE THERMAL PROFILES. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAPID DOWNHILL IN FLIGHT CONDS HAS COMMENCED W/ARRIVAL OF PCPN SHIELD W/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. DIABATIC COOLING WINNING OUT ATTM INVOF KFWA W/FZRA NOTED. CONCURRENT TRENDS IN RAP ALG W/06Z NAM QUITE DISCONCERTING W/EWD SHIFT OF RAIN/SNOW LINE AND LOOKS LIKE A FUNCTION OF BOTH DIABATIC/ADIABATIC PROCESSES GOING ON IN BNDRY LYR THERMAL FIELDS OF WHICH LOOK OVER ESTIMATED IN 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE AS DENOTED IN RAPIDLY DWINDLING MELTING LYR PER DUAL POL DATA. WILL MAKE SOME GRADUATED CHGS TO KFWA TERMINAL. OTRWS PRIOR KSBN FCST LOOKS SOLID W/NR BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016- 017-022>024. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ018-025-032. MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001. LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...LASHLEY SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...T LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...T VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT LEANED ON CONSENSUS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS. FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. TRANSITIONED KLAF TO ALL SNOW AND INTRODUCED A RA/SN MIX AT KHUF. POSSIBLE THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN A TOUCH FASTER THIS AFTERNOON AT KIND AND HIGHLIGHTED AS WELL. 12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH IFR CEILINGS RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. KLAF MAY START OUT AS MVFR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AND THEN IFR OR LIFR AFTER THAT AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON KHUF AND CLOSER TO 22Z AT KIND AND KBMG. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA BY 18Z AND TO NORTHERN OHIO BY 00Z AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLAF... OTHERWISE LIGHTER SNOW WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER SITES. MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN ALL AREAS SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO 3 MILES MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT KLAF WITH LESSER GUSTS AT THE OTHER SITES. WINDS MAY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KBMG MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES BY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>040-045>047-051>054-060-061-067. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-035-036-043-044. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...JH/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
642 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. RAIN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 INTENSE SW OVR THE MID MS VALLEY W/ATTENDANT 990MB SFC REFLECTION OVR NW TN DEEPENING RAPIDLY ERLY THIS MORNING. BROAD ARC OF 6MB/3HR PRES FALLS INTO SRN IN/SW OH WITHIN FOCUSED INTENSE WAA ZONE SPURNING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAIN FM ERN IN IN SWD INTO NRN KY. TIGHT/COHERENT NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE SPOT ON W/NWD REACH OF CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY TRENDS FM RAP GUIDANCE SINCE 00Z...SUGGEST FEW CHGS WARRANTED TO EXISTING HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WILL ADD STEUBEN AND HILLSDALE TO CURRENT WARNING HEADLINE AND IN COORDINATION W/ILX/IND/LOT UPGRADE NW IN ZONES TO BZW. SFC LOW OVR NW TN WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD TDA...REACHING NR KCLE BY 00Z AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL PROLONG BOTH STG GRADIENT WINDS AND MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS NW HALF. HWVR EWD WRAP OF SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH ERN OH AND WWD PLACEMENT OF COUPLING W/NRN JET ACRS THE UPR LAKES SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING AND EVEN SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACRS WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. OTRWS COUPLED JET WILL DRIVE INTENSE/DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ESP FM MID MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN NW HALF W/SHARP EWD SNOW CUTOFF TO NOTHING XPCD AS GENERAL STEADYSTATE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FM LOGANSPORT- WARSAW-COLDWATER LINE. IT SHLD BE NOTED HWVR THAT RUC CONTS TO TREND A BIT EWD OF THIS LINE AND IN CONCERT W/AGREEABLE NOD FM 06Z NAM WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST. THAT SAID...BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY NW ZONES COLLOCATED WITHIN INTENSE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND MOST INTENSE GRADIENT FLW. XPC SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LIKELY HERE MID MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN. SECONDARY CONCERN LIES W/EWD PULLOUT OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE OVERNIGHT AND WRN BOUND OF LK ENHANCING MID LVL MSTR PLUME. FLW SLW TO RELAX AND BLIZZARD WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED PENDING HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT TDA AS SOME SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OVR FAR NW ZONES YET DIMINISHES QUICKLY W/INLAND EXTENT. OTRWS STG GRADIENT FLW REMAINS W/RISE COUPLET SLW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH OH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHLD YIELD CONTD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LK ENHANCEMENT SPREADS FURTHER INLAND THU AM AS LL FLW TURNS NWRLY AND XPC MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ADDNL ACCUM W/CONTD GUSTY NW WINDS NOT DIMINISHING UNTIL AFTN. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 REST OF THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. CHANCE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY LOW (AROUND 4 KFT) WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF BAND ORGANIZATION. DID RAISE POPS JUST A LITTLE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...A HALF INCH AT BEST. ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AFTER A FAIRLY PLEASANT SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. PRETTY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SET TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AND GOOD PV ADVECTION BUT EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING RAIN AS PTYPE IF ANYTHING OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT IF POSTFRONTAL DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT...AS ARE THERMAL PROFILES. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAPID DOWNHILL IN FLIGHT CONDS HAS COMMENCED W/ARRIVAL OF PCPN SHIELD W/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. DIABATIC COOLING WINNING OUT ATTM INVOF KFWA W/FZRA NOTED. CONCURRENT TRENDS IN RAP ALG W/06Z NAM QUITE DISCONCERTING W/EWD SHIFT OF RAIN/SNOW LINE AND LOOKS LIKE A FUNCTION OF BOTH DIABATIC/ADIABATIC PROCESSES GOING ON IN BNDRY LYR THERMAL FIELDS OF WHICH LOOK OVER ESTIMATED IN 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE AS DENOTED IN RAPIDLY DWINDLING MELTING LYR PER DUAL POL DATA. WILL MAKE SOME GRADUATED CHGS TO KFWA TERMINAL. OTRWS PRIOR KSBN FCST LOOKS SOLID W/NR BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016- 017-022>024. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ018-025-032. MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001. LM...STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...T LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...T VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT LEANED ON CONSENSUS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS. FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240900Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH IFR CEILINGS RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. KLAF MAY START OUT AS MVFR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AND THEN IFR OR LIFR AFTER THAT AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON KHUF AND CLOSER TO 22Z AT KIND AND KBMG. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA BY 18Z AND TO NORTHERN OHIO BY 00Z AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLAF... OTHERWISE LIGHTER SNOW WILL BE THE RULE MOST OTHER SITES. MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN ALL AREAS SOME TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO 3 MILES MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT KLAF WITH LESSER GUSTS AT THE OTHER SITES. WINDS MAY DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KBMG MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES BY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>040-045>047-051>054-060-061-067. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031-035-036-043-044. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
547 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. RAIN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 INTENSE SW OVR THE MID MS VALLEY W/ATTENDANT 990MB SFC REFLECTION OVR NW TN DEEPENING RAPIDLY ERLY THIS MORNING. BROAD ARC OF 6MB/3HR PRES FALLS INTO SRN IN/SW OH WITHIN FOCUSED INTENSE WAA ZONE SPURNING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAIN FM ERN IN IN SWD INTO NRN KY. TIGHT/COHERENT NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE SPOT ON W/NWD REACH OF CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY TRENDS FM RAP GUIDANCE SINCE 00Z...SUGGEST FEW CHGS WARRANTED TO EXISTING HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WILL ADD STEUBEN AND HILLSDALE TO CURRENT WARNING HEADLINE AND IN COORDINATION W/ILX/IND/LOT UPGRADE NW IN ZONES TO BZW. SFC LOW OVR NW TN WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD TDA...REACHING NR KCLE BY 00Z AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL PROLONG BOTH STG GRADIENT WINDS AND MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS NW HALF. HWVR EWD WRAP OF SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH ERN OH AND WWD PLACEMENT OF COUPLING W/NRN JET ACRS THE UPR LAKES SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING AND EVEN SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACRS WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. OTRWS COUPLED JET WILL DRIVE INTENSE/DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ESP FM MID MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN NW HALF W/SHARP EWD SNOW CUTOFF TO NOTHING XPCD AS GENERAL STEADYSTATE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FM LOGANSPORT- WARSAW-COLDWATER LINE. IT SHLD BE NOTED HWVR THAT RUC CONTS TO TREND A BIT EWD OF THIS LINE AND IN CONCERT W/AGREEABLE NOD FM 06Z NAM WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST. THAT SAID...BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY NW ZONES COLLOCATED WITHIN INTENSE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND MOST INTENSE GRADIENT FLW. XPC SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LIKELY HERE MID MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN. SECONDARY CONCERN LIES W/EWD PULLOUT OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE OVERNIGHT AND WRN BOUND OF LK ENHANCING MID LVL MSTR PLUME. FLW SLW TO RELAX AND BLIZZARD WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED PENDING HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT TDA AS SOME SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OVR FAR NW ZONES YET DIMINISHES QUICKLY W/INLAND EXTENT. OTRWS STG GRADIENT FLW REMAINS W/RISE COUPLET SLW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH OH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHLD YIELD CONTD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LK ENHANCEMENT SPREADS FURTHER INLAND THU AM AS LL FLW TURNS NWRLY AND XPC MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ADDNL ACCUM W/CONTD GUSTY NW WINDS NOT DIMINISHING UNTIL AFTN. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 REST OF THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. CHANCE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY LOW (AROUND 4 KFT) WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF BAND ORGANIZATION. DID RAISE POPS JUST A LITTLE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...A HALF INCH AT BEST. ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AFTER A FAIRLY PLEASANT SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. PRETTY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SET TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AND GOOD PV ADVECTION BUT EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING RAIN AS PTYPE IF ANYTHING OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT IF POSTFRONTAL DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT...AS ARE THERMAL PROFILES. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAPID DOWNHILL SLIDE XPCD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS INTENSE LOW PRES OVR WRN KY SHIFTS NEWD TO KTOL BY EVENING. BROAD WAA INDUCED PRECIP SHIELD IS SPREADING QUICKLY NWD AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS 09-12Z AS FLIGHT CONDS LWR TO IFR. RAIN/SNOW LINE XPCD TO LAY OUT INBTWN W/MOD-HVY SNOW AT KSBN VS RAIN AT KFWA THROUGH ABT 00Z. THEREAFTER CHG OVR XPCD AT KFWA. HWVR GREATER WX RELATED IMPACTS XPCD INVOF KSBN W/HVY SNOW AND GRADIENT GUSTS AOA 35KTS THIS AFTN. DEFORMATION INDUCED SNOW...ALBEIT LIGHTER...WILL PERSIST OVR KSBN TERMINAL OVERNIGHT W/STG NW SFC WINDS CONTG. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016- 017-022>024. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ018-025-032. MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001. LM...STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...T LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...T VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
525 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 The main concern remains the potent storm system over our region this morning. This system contains a variety of potential hazards, including heavy snow, strong winds, heavy rain, and thunder. The heavy rain and thunder appear to be the least significant at this time. The main focus of this forecast package is on the winter weather and strong wind potential. As of 08z, the surface low was deepening rather rapidly along the Tennessee/Kentucky border near khop. RAP model data indicated the central pressure fell about 10 mb between 00z and 08z. A strong northerly low-level jet exists on the northwest side of the low. Winds aloft are forecast near 50 knots at 1000 feet agl over se Missouri this morning. There have been a few reports of 40 knot gusts in southeast MO overnight, including the kpof asos site. Model guidance indicates these strong wind fields will expand northeast across southern IL this morning. Although winds aloft will begin to weaken as they spread east this afternoon, lapse rates will steepen in the cold advection pattern. Due to more efficient momentum transfer/mixing, the Wind Advisory may need to be expanded further east across KY and into southwest IN today. Widespread moderate rain overnight has begun to change to snow in the hilly terrain of se Missouri. Around 08z, snow was reported north and west of kpof in Wayne and nw Butler Counties. At the same time, a mid-level dry slot has begun to work north across the Bootheel of Missouri. It appears the dry slot will move north- northeast in tandem with the strong mid-level low. A band of moderate to heavy precip has been organizing on the northwest side of the dry slot. The potential for a band of heavy snowfall exists under this deformation band. Mesoscale discussion 136 from the SPC contains the details on this heavy snow threat. A Winter Storm Warning will be issued for small parts of se Missouri and srn Illinois, where the deformation zone is expected to slowly organize through mid-morning. This area is generally along and northwest of a line from kcgi to kmvn. Hilly terrain in this area will provide a little extra orographic lift, along with colder temps at higher elevations. Although surface and pavement temps will be at or above freezing, snowfall rates around an inch per hour for several hours should overcome the ground warmth. The Winter Weather Advisory will continue for the rest of southeast MO and southern IL, where some bursts of snow are possible in the more unstable air within the dry slot. One last sidenote, the Winter Storm Warning will replace the Wind Advisory, since the wind hazard is covered by the warning. The main area of precip will exit our region by early this afternoon, but areas of lighter precip will continue to wrap south-southeastward around the departing occluded low through tonight. Most of this wrap-around precip will be along and east of the Mississippi River, and mainly in the form of snow. However, surface temps are forecast to remain above freezing for most of the night. Any additional snow amounts are forecast to be less than one-half inch and mainly in southwest IN and the Pennyrile region. Therefore, the winter headlines will not be extended into the night with this forecast package. There may be some lingering light snow showers in the EVV area and Pennyrile region of west KY on Thursday. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday as surface high pressure builds east across our region. Forecast highs will be lowered a notch for Thursday based on anticipated snow cover in some areas. In addition, forecast 850 mb temps of minus 10 do not support highs in the 40s, especially with the anticipated cloud cover. With increasing sun and moderating 850 mb temps on Friday, highs will be in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 Above average confidence in the long term. High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the region dry through Sunday. With the approach and passage of a frontal system Sunday night, precipitation chances will be small due to a lack of moisture. High pressure in the wake of the front will keep the region dry through at least Monday, and maybe even Monday night. Models not in good agreement regarding the results of a cold front dropping southward out of the northern plains Monday into Monday evening. The GFS brings the front across our CWA dry while the ECMWF brings the front into our CWA, then stalls it out E-W. After midnight Monday night the ECMWF brings a swath of QPF quickly eastward along the boundary across our CWA while the GFS continues to be dry. With so much disparity, decided to keep it dry Monday night. Models show the aforementioned frontal boundary lifting back to the north as a warm front on Tuesday. Again the GFS remains dry with the fropa while the ECMWF cranks out precipitation for basically the entire area. Decided to split the difference in this period and go with small pops. Temperatures will remain above normal through the long term period, and thankfully any precipitation that falls should be of the liquid variety. && .AVIATION... Issued at 525 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 IFR cigs/vsbys will remain prevalent through today as a strong storm system and its associated precipitation impact the taf sites. Conditions will improve this evening as winds become northwest and bring drier air. Rain will transition to snow from west to east, starting at kcgi early this morning and finally changing near KOWB and KEVV this afternoon. Sustained winds at or above 15 kts will continue until tonight when the system exits to the east. Gusts will be around 30 knots today. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075>078-080>086-088-089-092-093. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ076>078-082-083- 085>094. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075-080- 081-084. MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ100-107>112-114. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086- 087. IN...NONE. KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>006. && $$ SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
951 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WE`LL SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TODAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 945 AM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD AIR IS SLOW TO ERODE...EVEN SLOWER THEN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. I OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS COASTAL MAINE. PREV DISC... UPDATE... COLD AIR HOLDING IN TOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTLINE AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS. FREEZING RAIN NOW OCCURRING FROM PORTSMOUTH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PORTLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. WISCASSET AND ROCKLAND MAY CHANGEOVER AROUND 13Z. THE LATEST HRRR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DELAY IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER/SURFACE WARMING. THIS NEW ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM ACROSS INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL. PREV DISC... A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER MAIND AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ALOFT. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST INITIAL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY ALONG THE COAST AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR/ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. FURTHER INLAND...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES. ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500 FEET MAY HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN THE LONGEST WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES IN THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES PLACING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAIN...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES UPSTATE NEW YORK. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR. HIGH PWAT AND POLEWARD WIND VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FORMING LATE AT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON AN INCREASING MIXING LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO SOAR INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH IN PORTLAND FOR THURSDAY IS 51 WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN 1984 AND 1985. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE NAM MOS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THEN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST AS SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...MOST AREAS WILL DETEORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH ICING EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER SOME SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 3.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-020>022. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ023>028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ005>011-015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ012>014. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
712 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX TODAY AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... COLD AIR HOLDING IN TOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTLINE AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS. FREEZING RAIN NOW OCCURRING FROM PORTSMOUTH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PORTLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. WISCASSET AND ROCKLAND MAY CHANGEOVER AROUND 13Z. THE LATEST HRRR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DELAY IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER/SURFACE WARMING. THIS NEW ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM ACROSS INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL. PREV DISC... A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER MAIND AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ALOFT. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST INITIAL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY ALONG THE COAST AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR/ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. FURTHER INLAND...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES. ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500 FEET MAY HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN THE LONGEST WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES IN THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES PLACING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAIN...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES UPSTATE NEW YORK. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR. HIGH PWAT AND POLEWARD WIND VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FORMING LATE AT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON AN INCREASING MIXING LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO SOAR INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH IN PORTLAND FOR THURSDAY IS 51 WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN 1984 AND 1985. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE NAM MOS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THEN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST AS SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...MOST AREAS WILL DETEORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH ICING EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER SOME SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 3.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-020>022. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ005>011-015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012>014. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...JENSENIUS AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS HYDROLOGY...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
531 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX TODAY AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... COLD AIR HOLDING IN TOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTLINE AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS. THE LATEST HRRR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DELAY IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER/SURFACE WARMING. THIS NEW ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM ACROSS INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL. PREV DISC... A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER MAIND AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ALOFT. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST INITIAL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY ALONG THE COAST AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR/ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. FURTHER INLAND...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES. ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500 FEET MAY HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN THE LONGEST WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES IN THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES PLACING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAIN...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES UPSTATE NEW YORK. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR. HIGH PWAT AND POLEWARD WIND VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FORMING LATE AT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON AN INCREASING MIXING LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO SOAR INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH IN PORTLAND FOR THURSDAY IS 51 WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN 1984 AND 1985. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE NAM MOS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THEN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST AS SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...MOST AREAS WILL DETEORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH ICING EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER SOME SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 3.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-020>022. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ005>011-015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012>014. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...JENSENIUS AVIATION...CANNON/JENSENIUS MARINE...CANNON/JENSENIUS HYDROLOGY...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
956 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT AND THU. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 956 AM WEDNESDAY... ...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY... WEDGE HAS ERODED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SETTING TABLE FOR SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE UPTICK DUE TO THE MIXING ...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. SOME MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT TIMING OF THESE TRENDS ARE IN ORDER...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK PER DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT 850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM. MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH 11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS. SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION) ...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40- 45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8PM OR SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE41-48 RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY... SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAYDAY/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY... COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO 65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTH WITH MILD RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE LOWER PLAINS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 900 AM WEDNESDAY... COLD AIR DAMMING...AND ASSOCIATED COOL AND SATURATED AIR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 2000-2500 FT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS IN THE INVERSION LAYER WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 9-12Z...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH; AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY WINDY...WARM...AND HUMID REGIME --ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS OR OCCASIONAL SCATTERING TO VFR-- AND STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 11-14Z AT FAY AND RWI; 12-15Z AT RDU...AND 14-17Z AT GSO/INT. IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE SC STATE LINE. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BASED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY NOT POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF STORMS BETWEEN 15-22Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SWATHS OF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS...WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...22/MLM SHORT TERM...26/MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
925 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT AND THU. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY... ...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT 850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM. MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH 11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS. SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION) ...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40- 45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 8PM OR SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE41-48 RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY... SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY... COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO 65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 900 AM WEDNESDAY... COLD AIR DAMMING...AND ASSOCIATED COOL AND SATURATED AIR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 2000-2500 FT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS IN THE INVERSION LAYER WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 9-12Z...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH; AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE OCCURRENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASINGLY WINDY...WARM...AND HUMID REGIME --ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS OR OCCASIONAL SCATTERING TO VFR-- AND STRONG SSE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 11-14Z AT FAY AND RWI; 12-15Z AT RDU...AND 14-17Z AT GSO/INT. IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW ABOUT TO CROSS THE SC STATE LINE. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BASED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION AND CONSEQUENTLY NOT POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF STORMS BETWEEN 15-22Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SWATHS OF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY AT RDU/FAY/RWI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS...WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...26/MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
935 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING WHEN THEY REACH NORTHERN OHIO...AND RAIN WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR GETS PULLED IN ON WESTERLY WIND. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD HAS PIVOTED UP INTO NORTHERN OHIO WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA NOW LIGHTER AND SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AN INCH OR SO...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WE HAVE HAD A FEW SPOTTY REPORTS OF ICING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A TRAVEL ISSUE WITH THIS...BUT SOME LIGHT ICING ON EXPOSED SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL TEMPERATURES BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS WHERE WE WILL GET INTO A BIT OF A WARM SECTOR...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES OF GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY SYNCED UP WITH THE BETTER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING SHEAR...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE LOW CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON WESTERLY WINDS AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WARM AND WET GROUND BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND EXPECTED QPF...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NOTED NORTH OF METROPOLITAN DAYTON. AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN....SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SHARP TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE FAR WESTERN STATES...WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND GRAZING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILN FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE CONTINUING WITHIN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ON FRIDAY MORNING...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW. A THICK STRATOCUMULUS DECK LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY TO EXIST...AND THIS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT ALIGNMENT ON THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE GOOD...BUT UNSURPRISINGLY...DETAILS ON THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE IN MUCH POORER AGREEMENT. AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF WARM ADVECTION...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION OCCURS SHOULD START AS RAIN...AND MAY STAY THAT WAY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MIX WITH SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO LARGE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT A SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC RESULT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING BEYOND THAT POINT IS IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. AFTER MONDAY...500MB GFSE PERTURBATIONS BECOME COMPLETELY MISALIGNED AND OUT OF PHASE. THUS...SPECIFICS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY ARE VERY LOW IN CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SRN EDGE OF THE OVERRUNNING RAIN IS WORKING NORTH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE STEADY RAIN ENDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. AS THE LOW MOVES NE AFT 00Z...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. SHRA WILL MIX WITH...THEN CHANGE TO SN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR WITH THE CHANGE TO SNOW. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE CAA. THE STEADY SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS 12Z...ALLOWING CIGS AND VSBYS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
539 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR ceilings will persist into this afternoon at KFYV/KXNA/KROG. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty northwest winds today will diminish this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/ DISCUSSION... Precipitation is beginning taper off across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. Most of the precipitation has transitioned back to rain at all the observation stations across western Arkansas. The HRRR has the precipitation moving out of the forecast area by 10z. Will be cancelling the Winter Weather Advisory before 8 am expiration time. Same goes for the Wind Advisory. Have not seen any wind gusts in the 40 mph range in some time. Otherwise, skies will clear out from west to east across the area as the storm system currently over western Tennessee moves off to the north-northeast. A cold front will move through the region Tonight and will keep temperatures generally below normal for this time of year through Friday morning. A warm up ensues Friday and especially over the weekend as the low level winds become south-southwesterly. Another cold front moves through the region Sunday night with no precipitation expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come as we move into the Tue-Wed time frame as the next storm system approaches. && .TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
801 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TN/KY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG A FAST MOVING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIRECT COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MESO OBS/IRIS DATABASE STILL SHOWING SEVERAL SITES AT 30-33F AT 07Z BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TO THE UPSIDE. CONSIDERED ENDING FZRA ADVY EARLY WITH FREEZING PCPN BEING HIGHLY LOCALIZED...BUT DECIDED TO LET IT RUN THE COURSE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN DELAYS ALREADY IN EFFECT. HRRR KEEPS BAND OF STEADIER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER WRN PA WEST OF I-99 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN RELATIVE PCPN MINIMUM WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WEDGE FRONT/LOW LEVEL CAD SHOULD ERODE FROM SOUTH- NORTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIRES NCAR ENS MEAN LIFTED INDEX. THE STABLE AIR BELOW TYPICALLY STUBBORN INVERSION WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /HIRES ENS MEAN MUCAPES AROUND 500-750 J/KG/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH RAMP-UP OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POWERFUL 100+KT MID/UPPER JET...AND ARRIVAL OF 1-1.5 INCH PWS VIA 60-70KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL OR PRE- FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING EAST- NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RATES/FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY WITH CENTRAL PA FFG VALUES RATHER LOW. THEREFORE WPC HAS MAINTAINED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. UTILIZED WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMTS WHICH RANGE BTWN 0.75 INCHES IN THE LAURELS TO ~ 1.50 INCHES FOCUSED INTO THE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 60KT AND STORM MOTIONS LIKELY OVER 50KT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING/FLOW AND FAVORABLE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIRES GUIDANCE DEPICT A LINE OF LOW TOPPED HEAVY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CROSSING THE CWA BTWN 21-03Z WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN HWO. HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WX RISK SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... PERSISTENT/STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING INTO CENTRAL PA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM TRACKING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY. MARGINALLY WARM BLYR TEMPS AND ROAD SFC MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS INITIALLY. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PA. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN ON FRIDAY AND COME TO AN END FRI NGT AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE NICELY SAT-SUN AS SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN-MON...BRINGING RISK OF RAIN/SNOW TO START NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE SFC PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT NEITHER MODEL INDICATES ANY HIGH IMPACT WX SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT MOVE TO THE NORTH...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY IFR IS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ENVELOP CENTRAL PA TODAY THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRACKS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LLWS. EXPECT WINDS ALOFT OF 60 TO 70 KTS AROUND 2KFT. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15Z...AND ENDING BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 03Z TO 09Z FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. IFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z AND FROM MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN 09Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005- 006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
659 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TN/KY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG A FAST MOVING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIRECT COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630AM UPDATE...ICING RISK NOW VERY LIMITED TO HIGHEST RIDGES WEST OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR INTO RURAL NCENTRAL PA. DON`T FEEL IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE/IMPACT AND THEREFORE ANTICIPATE THE HEADLINE ENDING ON SCHEDULE. MESO OBS/IRIS DATABASE STILL SHOWING SEVERAL SITES AT 30-33F AT 07Z BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TO THE UPSIDE. CONSIDERED ENDING FZRA ADVY EARLY WITH FREEZING PCPN BEING HIGHLY LOCALIZED...BUT DECIDED TO LET IT RUN THE COURSE FOR NOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN DELAYS ALREADY IN EFFECT. HRRR KEEPS BAND OF STEADIER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER WRN PA WEST OF I-99 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN RELATIVE PCPN MINIMUM WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WEDGE FRONT/LOW LEVEL CAD SHOULD ERODE FROM SOUTH- NORTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIRES NCAR ENS MEAN LIFTED INDEX. THE STABLE AIR BELOW TYPICALLY STUBBORN INVERSION WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /HIRES ENS MEAN MUCAPES AROUND 500-750 J/KG/ IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH RAMP-UP OF LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POWERFUL 100+KT MID/UPPER JET...AND ARRIVAL OF 1-1.5 INCH PWS VIA 60-70KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FRONTAL OR PRE- FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING EAST- NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THE AREA OF PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RATES/FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY WITH CENTRAL PA FFG VALUES RATHER LOW. THEREFORE WPC HAS MAINTAINED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. UTILIZED WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMTS WHICH RANGE BTWN 0.75 INCHES IN THE LAURELS TO ~ 1.50 INCHES FOCUSED INTO THE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 60KT AND STORM MOTIONS LIKELY OVER 50KT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING/FLOW AND FAVORABLE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE HIRES GUIDANCE DEPICT A LINE OF LOW TOPPED HEAVY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CROSSING THE CWA BTWN 21-03Z WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN HWO. HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WX RISK SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... PERSISTENT/STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING INTO CENTRAL PA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM TRACKING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY. MARGINALLY WARM BLYR TEMPS AND ROAD SFC MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS INITIALLY. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST PA. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN ON FRIDAY AND COME TO AN END FRI NGT AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE NICELY SAT-SUN AS SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN-MON...BRINGING RISK OF RAIN/SNOW TO START NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE SFC PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT NEITHER MODEL INDICATES ANY HIGH IMPACT WX SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT MOVE TO THE NORTH...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY IFR IS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT UNV AND IPT WHICH ARE MVFR. CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ENVELOP CENTRAL PA...ALLOWING FOR IFR BY 10Z. THE BIGGEST ISSUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BEYOND THE LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG...WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA ARE NOT FAR FROM FREEZING...ANY DROP OFF AT ALL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LIGHT ICING. STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRACKS INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LLWS. EXPECT WINDS ALOFT OF 60 TO 70 KTS AROUND 2KFT. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z...AND ENDING BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE REGION. OUTLOOK... WED NGT...WINDY WITH RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS. SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005- 006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND SWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM...THE WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT AS EXPECTED...WITH JUST THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT STILL IN THE WEDGE. THE LAPS AND RAP CAPE ANALYSES SHOWING THE UNCOVERED AIR MASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE...WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. THIS POCKET OF BEST INSTABILITY IS LINING UP WITH DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NC ESCARPMENT TO AROUND GREENWOOD SC. THIS BROKEN LINE WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST...WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WIND/HAIL/TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING. THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE SLGT RISK TO THE EAST...NOW JUST BARELY CLIPPING THE EASTERN TIER OF OUR COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LINE UP BEST FOR MORE ROBUST SUPERCELLS. THE RAP 0-1 KM EHI OVER 1 EAST OF I-77 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST...THERE IS A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT LOOKS TO BE WINDS...BOTH IN CONVECTION AND JUST WITH MIXING. THE LATEST NAM AND HIGH RES/NEAR TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING SOLID 30-40 MPH GUSTS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA FROM MIDDAY THRU THE EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST POSSIBLE. THE WIND HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT APPEARS VERY INTERESTING AFTER MID MORNING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A VERY LOW LFC...GENERALLY 2 KFT. HELICITY BETWEEN 0-1 KM IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 250-300 M2/S2 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD EASILY INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND NE UPSTATE OF SC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDGE BOUNDARY...REACHING 600-900 J/KG. IN FACT...MID DAY VALUES OF EHI OVER KCLT NEAR 2.5 ACCORDING TO THE NAM. IN ADDITION...GFS360 INDICATES THAT A BELT OF H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTER HOURS. CAMS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY APPEAR VERY REALISTIC GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT...SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A ISOLATED TORNADO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SVR TSRA IN THE HWO AND THE FORECAST. THE SECOND HAZARD IS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SO FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS BLOCKING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS AND PRESENT HIGH STREAM FLOWS WOULD YIELD EASY CONDITIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP...NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY YIELD DOWNED TREES TODAY AND THIS EVENING...I WILL KEEP WIND HEADLINES THROUGH THIS MORNING. EXTENDING WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE MTNS TO MATCH FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...CAA...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NC MTNS. GIVEN THE TIMING THE CAA...PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER THE -SN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FLOW WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SHSN ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE MANY AREAS ALONG THE TN LINE WILL SEE AROUND TWO INCHES ON THE GROUND BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD LOOKING SITUATION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...DOMINATED MAINLY BY AN UPPER TROF LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS... MAINLY NEAR THE TN BORDER...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY AS SNOW EVEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS. ON THE ONE HAND...THE FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT DOES VEER AROUND TO A MORE NW DIRECTION AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WHAT THE SITUATION LACKS IN MECHANICAL FORCING WILL BE MADE UP BY SFC-BASED CAPE AROUND 100-150 J/KG HELPING TO FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAIN ZONES NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...OUTSIDE THE MTNS...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK CONTAINMENT WITHOUT ANY UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME 40KT WIND UP AROUND 750-800 MB. EXPECT A WINDY DAY OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE OWING TO ONGOING THREATS TODAY. THE NW FLOW MOISTURE PULLS OUT ON FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THRU THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISAGREE IF THERE WILL BE ANY SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS...AS THEY DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP... EVEN WITH A FINAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NW UPSLOPE REGION. A DRY FCST WAS INHERITED...SO A CHANGE WILL NOT BE MADE AT THIS POINT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MTNS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROF FINALLY SLIPPING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS THRU SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE RESPONSE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN THE GFS DOES NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL PUSH BACK THE PRECIP CHANCE REACHING THE MTNS UNTIL LATER IN THAT PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP THAT REACHES THE MTNS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY SHOULD BE LIQUID. BEYOND THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH MID MORNING. UNTIL THE WEDGE ERODES...CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE IN THE VLIFR TO LIFR LEVELS AND IFR VIS AND STEADY ENE WINDS. IN ADDITION...ROUNDS OF MODERATE SHRA WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WITH STRENGTHENING LLVL LIFT. AS THE RETREATING WEDGE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THIS MORNING...LLWS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...AS THE WARM SECTOR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE MORNING...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTH WITH REGULAR GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...ENDING LLWS. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING A MENTION OF LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON TSRA. BY THIS LATE AFTERNOON...TSRA WILL END AND SKY WILL MIX TO VFR. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KAVL...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AS NW WINDS DEVELOP AND SUPPORTS UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER. OUTLOOK...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER. DRYING EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z KCLT MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP MED 79% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL MED 64% MED 75% LOW 58% MED 65% KHKY MED 72% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU MED 72% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND MED 76% HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017- 018-026-028-029. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-018- 026-028-029. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033- 035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-035>037- 048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ051-052- 058-059-062>064. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014- 019. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>014-019. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...ARK/NED SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
414 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT...REACHING MILD LEVELS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER TEMPEARTURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 413 PM EST...A LARGE AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THIS STORM EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...WITH 850 HPA WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS THIS EVENING. THESE 850 V WINDS ARE 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW CT...AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IF IT CAN BREAK THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...AND THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE IN NW CT. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SEVERE T-STORMS OVER VIRGINA/NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. AS THIS WHOLE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS LINE COULD BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH DIFFERENT HERE THAN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AS COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW AND HELP PREVENT THE WORST OF THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRESENT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN IN PLACES WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN...AND SPC HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY IN THE 30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S THANKS TO EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WARM SECTOR...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD HELP TEMPS SPIKE TONIGHT INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WHICH COULD HELP WEAKEN THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS...RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR HSA. THE STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY 08Z-09Z /ACCORDING TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE/. CANNOT RULED OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE DONE BY THAT TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO COOL OFF. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS START TO FALL BACK DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTN HOURS...AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS 850 HPA TEMPS CRASH TO -12 TO -20 DEGREES C. THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL END FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS ALOFT WILL REMAIN CHILLY...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE 20S TO LOW 30S /TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/ AND LOWS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START DRY AND COOL AND QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RACES EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SO THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOP. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z THURSDAY WILL HOVER BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR. VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. RAIN WILL TEND TO END IN ALL AREAS BY 14Z-15Z...BUT SOME PATCHES OF RAIN MAY STILL BE AROUND TO REQUIRE VCSH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL. STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REQUIRE A MENTION OF WIND SHEAR. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL WATCH LATER TRENDS FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN BETWEEN 12Z-15Z TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH THE RAINFALL OCCURRING WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THERE MAY BE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND IN FIELDS AND YARDS IN PLACES WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE LARGE RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. A FEW RIVER POINTS LOOK TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE...AND COULD EVEN APPROACH FLOOD STAGE /SUCH AS IN PARTS OF THE HOOSIC AND UPPER MOHAWK BASINS/. RIVERS LOOK TO CREST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD QUICKLY START TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. JUST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT FOR WESTERN AREAS...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT...REACHING MILD LEVELS FOR TOMORROW...WITH SHOWERS ENDING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1244 PM EST...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHEASTERN VT REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH 3 PM DUE TO A LITTLE LINGERING FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETION WILL LIKELY JUST BE A TRACE. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID AFTN HOURS...ENDING THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. BASED ON CURRENT KENX RADAR AND THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...STEADY RAINFALL IS RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE THE LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE STORM/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR ONLY VERY SLOWLY RISE. DAILY HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH RAINFALL RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR OR MORE AT TIMES. IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWALTER INDEX COULD STILL DIP AT OR BELOW 0C ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT IMPLYING AN UNSTABLE ELEVATED ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE T-STORMS...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. THIS JET WILL SEND PWAT VALUES OVER AN INCH INTO OUR REGION...3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE WIND AT H850 OFF THE GEFS LOOKS TO BE UP TO 60KTS...ALSO 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL REGARDING THE V (SOUTHERLY COMPONENT). H850 TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH 10C OR BETTER. NOW...IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVEN IF LOW TOPPED... THEY COULD EASILY TAP INTO THE WIND FIELD AND PRODUCE VERY STRONG GUSTS. EVEN WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRONG SYNOPTIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY OVER THE TACONICS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WE DID NOT HOIST ANY WIND ADVISORIES JUST YET. WE WILL LET THE DAY CREW MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON ANY WIND HEADLINES. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE A SATURATED COLUMN WHICH MAKE IT HARDER FOR A FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WIND TO THE SURFACE. MOST PLACES WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST... WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS AND ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-2 INCHES. HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES LOOK MINOR BUT ALL THE ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED IN OUR HYDRO SECTION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RISE INSTEAD OF FALL...THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN...ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOWMELT IN THE ADIRONDACKS. BY THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD TAPER THE RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...EVEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ON BY...WITH DRYING ALOFT THE WIND WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING TO THE SURFACE. LOOK FOR THE WIND TO AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S... AND EVEN CLOSE TO 50 ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE TO BREAK INTO MORE SUNSHINE (LIKE LAST SATURDAY) THESE NUMBERS COULD GO A BIT HIGHER AS THEY DID LAST SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON THURSDAY LOOKS MUCH LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT... GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS H850 TEMPS FALL QUICKLY FROM +5C TO +9C LOWER THAN -10C BY FRIDAY. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL GREET US FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES TUMBLE TO THE 20S /TEENS NORTH/. THE COLUMN LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW (ENHANCED BY LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE) MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SOME OVER THE CATSKILLS AND TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL ADDRESS THAT POSSIBILITY TOMORROW NIGHT. VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PARTLY SUNNY BLUSTERY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 30-35 IN MOST VALLEYS... 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND 10-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH... WILL MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER BUT NOWHERE NEAR DANGEROUS WIND CHILL LEVELS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND (BUT NOT COMPLETELY). LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS ALBANY SOUTHWARD...SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY (OUTSIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS) WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 30S VALLEYS...CLOSER TO 30 HIGHER TERRAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET. THE GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL NORTH IN CANADA...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH COOLER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. DUE THE THREAT OF THE FRONT NEARBY...WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I-90. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...A DEEPENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS THE CYCLONE CENTER TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN A MINI-WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. THIS COULD SENT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT COOLER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH QUICKER. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AS THE GFS INDICATES A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS FORECAST STORM TRACKS WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SO THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOP. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z THURSDAY WILL HOVER BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR. VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. RAIN WILL TEND TO END IN ALL AREAS BY 14Z-15Z...BUT SOME PATCHES OF RAIN MAY STILL BE AROUND TO REQUIRE VCSH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL. STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REQUIRE A MENTION OF WIND SHEAR. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL WATCH LATER TRENDS FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN BETWEEN 12Z-15Z TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... A HEAVY PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...PERHAPS A TAD LOWER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED. AS A RESULT AT THIS TIME...ONLY THE SREFS OFF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS (MMEFS) INDICATE ANY RIVER POINT GOING ABOVE FLOODING (WILLIAMSTOWN AND HOPE) WHILE THE GEFS AND NAEFS DO INDICATE ANY FLOODING BUT PLENTY OF POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES. AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON MANY RIVER AND STREAMS. A LOWER THAN AVERAGE SNOW PACK WILL CERTAINLY HELP MITIGATE ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL. NO FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...THE RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED. COLDER AIR MOVING BACK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL SLOW THE RUNOFF. MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ033-041>043-083. MA...NONE. VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ014-015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
357 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WIND DOWN NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MID EVENING... ...TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER THURSDAY...REMAINING WINDY... CURRENT-THIS EVENING...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OSCEOLA COUNTY TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID EVENING. BOTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS WERE INDICATING STORMS AND SHOWERS CLEARING SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 10 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LINE OF STORMS CLEARS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE/20 POP OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS SEBASTIAN/INDIAN RIVER COUNTY SOUTH DURING THE EVENING WIND DOWN/EXIT MARTIN COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW/MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS. THU...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...BAHAMA ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN TO TEXAS THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST. BROAD TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REACHES ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES THE SURFACE OVER FLORIDA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT. HIGHS MID 60S...LOWS LOW AND MID 40S EXCEPT UPPER 30S EASTERN OSCEOLA...OKEECHOBEE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF/TX/LA SHIFTS EAST TO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN. NORTHWEST WINDS FRI SHIFT TO NORTH 10 MPH SAT THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 MPH SUN. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HIGHS MID/UPPER 60S FRI AND SAT THEN LOW 70S SUN. LOWS MID/UPPER 30S SAT MORNING...LOW 40S TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO SOUTH SUN MORNING AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S MON MORNING. MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA MON SLOW SHIFTS NORTH THROUGH WED. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LOWS MID/UPPER 50S. && .AVIATION... TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN/VC TSTMS/SHWRS MCO-TIX NORTH AND MLB LAKE KISSIMMEE SOUTH THROUGH 02Z. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS TIL 16Z. STORMS/SHOWERS END NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. && .MARINE... THIS EVENING-TONIGHT-FRI...STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GALE WARNING OFFSHORE ENDS THU MORNING THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THU LATE OVERNIGHT THU/EARLY FRI MORNING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY FRI MORNING TO OVERNIGHT FRI/SAT MORNING. SAT-MON...MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST SUN AND MON. AREA. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT FRI OVERNIGHT...REMAINING NEAR THESE VALUES THRU THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... PREVIOUS FIRE DISCUSSION THU-FRI...VERY DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW AFTN MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE U20S-30S AREAWIDE. GUSTY W/WNW 20 FT WINDS ON THU DECREASING INTO FRI. DISPERSION SHOULD BE VG- EX. SAT-SUN...CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30S AGAIN FOR SAT...THEN M-U30S WELL INTO THE INTERIOR ON SUN AND M- U40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS FINALLY VEER TO NE/E BRINGING A LITTLE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 48 65 42 62 / 0 10 10 10 MCO 50 66 42 67 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 52 66 43 66 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 54 67 40 67 / 20 0 10 10 LEE 48 65 44 65 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 48 66 43 65 / 0 10 10 10 ORL 50 66 46 66 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 54 68 41 67 / 20 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE- OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20- 60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM. && $$ IMPACT WX...LASCODY/ULRICH FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
551 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 410 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE ON SOME ROADS. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DRY SLOT DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STRONG ASCENT TODAY WHICH QUICKLY COOLED THE COLUMN AND LED TO RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS CERTAINLY HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING EVENT TO WATCH UNFOLD. HIGH DGZ...STRONG WINDS AND SATURATED COLUMN BELOW DGZ LED TO AN INTERESTING PATTERN TODAY WITH PCPN TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS. OBSERVATIONS AT KIWX SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN JUST A MATTER OF MINUTES. BANDS OF STRONGER SNOW AND DEEPER LIFT PRODUCED LARGE SNOWFLAKES WHILE INTERMITTENT PERIODS BETWEEN HEAVIER BANDS SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE DWINDLE TO VERY FINE FLAKES AND EVEN SNOW PELLETS AND SLEET AT TIMES WITH SOME MELTING AND REFREEZING. TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WARM LAYER CHANGED PCPN OVER TO RAIN BEFORE DRY SLOT ENDED PCPN ENTIRELY. WHILE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AREA HAS SEEN THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY...REPORTS FROM KSBN AND METRO AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES REPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND URBAN SETTING THERE MAY HAVE BEEN FASTER COMPACTION AND MELTING PROCESSES WITH SNOW ON GROUND COMPARED TO MORE RURAL AREAS. REST OF EVENING WILL SEE DRY SLOT FILL IN AS EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ROTATES NORTH. DEFORMATION ZONE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY. COLDER AIR WILL EXPAND EAST AND SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TYPE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING IN FAR EAST. RUC AND HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TYPES TODAY AND USED THESE ALONG WITH NAM12 BLENDED FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN POWT PROCESS FOR FORECAST GRIDS. LIQUID SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW AS EXPECTED WITH AROUND 10 TO 1 AVERAGE. SHOULD SEE THESE IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR AND DGZ LOWERING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND STILL EXPECTED TO SWING OFF THE LAKE INTO NW AND NC INDIANA WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY BURST OF SNOW. OVERALL INHERITED ACCUMS LOOK GOOD WITH REPORTS RECEIVED ALREADY...TOTAL ACCUMS AROUND A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE NW INDIANA TO SW MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW COMES TO AN END. HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG WITH WINDS JUST BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA HAS KEPT NW AREAS FROM SEEING TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WARRANT KEEPING THE BZW IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME STRONGER GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH GRADIENT AS WELL. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS INTACT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY EAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND ALEUTIANS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN US. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF ALEUTIAN LOW AND ENTERING WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY...BUT THEN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS INVERTED TROF EXTENDING UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 548 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 LOW LIFTING NE INTO LAKE ERIE THIS EVE WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND INTO NE INDIANA CAUSING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT FWA. LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LOW WILL CONT TO CAUSE SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS FURTHER DECREASED BY BLSN AS STRONG N-NW WINDS CONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY THU AFTN AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND NW WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009-018- 025>027-032>034. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016- 017-022>024. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ002-005- 016-025. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001-004- 015-024. LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...JAL AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
412 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 410 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE ON SOME ROADS. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DRY SLOT DRIVING INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STRONG ASCENT TODAY WHICH QUICKLY COOLED THE COLUMN AND LED TO RAPID SNOW DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS CERTAINLY HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING EVENT TO WATCH UNFOLD. HIGH DGZ...STRONG WINDS AND SATURATED COLUMN BELOW DGZ LED TO AN INTERESTING PATTERN TODAY WITH PCPN TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS. OBSERVATIONS AT KIWX SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN JUST A MATTER OF MINUTES. BANDS OF STRONGER SNOW AND DEEPER LIFT PRODUCED LARGE SNOWFLAKES WHILE INTERMITTENT PERIODS BETWEEN HEAVIER BANDS SAW SNOWFLAKE SIZE DWINDLE TO VERY FINE FLAKES AND EVEN SNOW PELLETS AND SLEET AT TIMES WITH SOME MELTING AND REFREEZING. TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WARM LAYER CHANGED PCPN OVER TO RAIN BEFORE DRY SLOT ENDED PCPN ENTIRELY. WHILE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AREA HAS SEEN THE HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY...REPORTS FROM KSBN AND METRO AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES REPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND URBAN SETTING THERE MAY HAVE BEEN FASTER COMPACTION AND MELTING PROCESSES WITH SNOW ON GROUND COMPARED TO MORE RURAL AREAS. REST OF EVENING WILL SEE DRY SLOT FILL IN AS EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ROTATES NORTH. DEFORMATION ZONE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY. COLDER AIR WILL EXPAND EAST AND SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TYPE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING IN FAR EAST. RUC AND HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TYPES TODAY AND USED THESE ALONG WITH NAM12 BLENDED FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN POWT PROCESS FOR FORECAST GRIDS. LIQUID SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW AS EXPECTED WITH AROUND 10 TO 1 AVERAGE. SHOULD SEE THESE IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR AND DGZ LOWERING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND STILL EXECTED TO SWING OFF THE LAKE INTO NW AND NC INDIANA WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY BURST OF SNOW. OVERALL INHERITED ACCUMS LOOK GOOD WITH REPORTS RECEIVED ALREADY...TOTAL ACCUMS AROUND A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE NW INDIANA TO SW MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW COMES TO AN END. HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG WITH WINDS JUST BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA HAS KEPT NW AREAS FROM SEEING TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WARRANT KEEPING THE BZW IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME STRONGER GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH GRADIENT AS WELL. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS INTACT AND EXPANDED ADVISORY EAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN ON THE QUIET SIDE FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND ALEUTIANS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN US. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF ALEUTIAN LOW AND ENTERING WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY...BUT THEN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS INVERTED TROF EXTENDING UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 CONTINUED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEFORMATION AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SETUP FROM KSLO-KRZL-KAZO. THIS WILL DRIFT LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. ABUNDANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP COLD AIR WILL FAVOR SNOW ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS. DRY INTRUSION AND COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS. ISOLD TSSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT AS THE COOLING AND MIXING OCCUR, EXPECT TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009-018- 025>027-032>034. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016- 017-022>024. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ002-005- 016-025. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001-004- 015-024. LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...JAL AVIATION...LEWIS VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 DECIDED TO START THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR TODAY A FEW HOURS EARLY AS WE WERE GETTING REPORTS OF A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AND ICE COVERING TREES AND POWER LINES IN MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SOME SNOW AND ICE WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGE IMPACTS WEIGHED HEAVILY IN THE DECISION TO START THE HEADLINES EARLY. ALSO...EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE HANCOCK...DELAWARE...HENRY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS ELEVATED SURFACES WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING ICE ACCUMULATION. FOR THE MID- MORNING UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE RAIN SNOW MIX THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE GRIDS. HAVE SEEN MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OVER WARREN AND PORTIONS OF TIPPECANOE...FOUNTAIN AND VERMILLION COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT OF WEST LAFAYETTE AROUND 1045 AM. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT LEANED ON CONSENSUS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS. FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER ON THE HORIZON FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE BRINGING LOW CHANCE FOR POPS LATE WEEKEND...THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE A NICE WARMUP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMALS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW MIXING IN OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE WITH EXTENDED MODELS OFFERING A PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE WAVES TRACKING ALONG IT WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE...AMOUNTS AND IMPACT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 241800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA TRACKING NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO WESTERN OHIO. BULK OF THE STEADIER PRECIP HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN INTENSE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND. THIS IS FALLING PREDOMINANTLY AS SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND/OR RAIN. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE WELL DEFINED TROWAL AT 850MB WILL LIFT OUT ALONG WITH IT. COLDER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. AT KLAF...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE DEFORMATION BAND INFLUENCES SNOW RATES. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN KHUF BY 19-20Z...AND KBMG AND KIND BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. ONCE THE CHANGE TO SNOW TAKES PLACE...EXPECT A PERIOD WITH SUB-IFR VISIBILITIES AND HEAVIER SNOWS INTO THE EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND WAVE ALOFT ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM. WINDS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED IN EXCESS OF 20KTS AND GUSTS AT 30-35KTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST THEN W/NW BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>042- 045>049-051>054-060-061-067. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031- 035-036-043-044. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...MRD/CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....RYAN AVIATION...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1240 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. RAIN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. KFWA ACTUALLY HAD A GUST TO 45 MPH. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED MUCH BELOW ONE HALF MILE YET AND THIS IS A CONCERN. STILL EXPECTING HEAVIEST SNOW TO ROTATE INTO NW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES INCREASE IN SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS. HAND ANALYSIS OF 15Z SFC MAP SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF KSDF WITH AN ELONGATED AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ALONG OH RIVER. BEST PRESSURE FALLS NEAR CLE WHICH SUPPORTS LATEST NAM AND MANY OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE OUTPUT. MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW REMAINS ALONG SHARP TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW OVER CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. WARNING SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL FOR NOW WITH ONLY QUESTION BEING IN THE NORTHEAST. LATEST NAM12 SUGGEST PCPN IN WILLIAMS COUNTY MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH RAIN SOUTH OF THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DRY SLOT WORKING NORTH AND HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN AND RADAR RETURNS WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT AMOUNTS WHERE NO HEADLINES IN EFFECT AND SNOW IS FALLING. THUS PLAN TO KEEP WILLIAMS IN AN ADVISORY BUT WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA CLOSELY. SOME SLEET REPORTS BEING RECEIVED MAINLY ALONG BACK EDGE OF MORE SOLID PCPN SHIELD WHERE DRY SLOT POKING IN. SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL EVAP COOLING IN LOW LEVELS AND LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME REFREEZING BEFORE REACHING GROUND. WILL BE MONITORING LATEST 12Z DATA CLOSELY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 INTENSE SW OVR THE MID MS VALLEY W/ATTENDANT 990MB SFC REFLECTION OVR NW TN DEEPENING RAPIDLY ERLY THIS MORNING. BROAD ARC OF 6MB/3HR PRES FALLS INTO SRN IN/SW OH WITHIN FOCUSED INTENSE WAA ZONE SPURNING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAIN FM ERN IN IN SWD INTO NRN KY. TIGHT/COHERENT NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE SPOT ON W/NWD REACH OF CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY TRENDS FM RAP GUIDANCE SINCE 00Z...SUGGEST FEW CHGS WARRANTED TO EXISTING HEADLINES ALTHOUGH WILL ADD STEUBEN AND HILLSDALE TO CURRENT WARNING HEADLINE AND IN COORDINATION W/ILX/IND/LOT UPGRADE NW IN ZONES TO BZW. SFC LOW OVR NW TN WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD TDA...REACHING NR KCLE BY 00Z AS TROUGH ALOFT TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL PROLONG BOTH STG GRADIENT WINDS AND MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS NW HALF. HWVR EWD WRAP OF SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH ERN OH AND WWD PLACEMENT OF COUPLING W/NRN JET ACRS THE UPR LAKES SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING AND EVEN SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACRS WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. OTRWS COUPLED JET WILL DRIVE INTENSE/DEEP VERTICAL MOTION ESP FM MID MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN NW HALF W/SHARP EWD SNOW CUTOFF TO NOTHING XPCD AS GENERAL STEADYSTATE RAIN/SNOW LINE STRETCHES FM LOGANSPORT- WARSAW-COLDWATER LINE. IT SHLD BE NOTED HWVR THAT RUC CONTS TO TREND A BIT EWD OF THIS LINE AND IN CONCERT W/AGREEABLE NOD FM 06Z NAM WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST. THAT SAID...BLIZZARD CONDS LIKELY NW ZONES COLLOCATED WITHIN INTENSE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND MOST INTENSE GRADIENT FLW. XPC SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LIKELY HERE MID MORNING THROUGH LT AFTN. SECONDARY CONCERN LIES W/EWD PULLOUT OF INTENSE SFC CYCLONE OVERNIGHT AND WRN BOUND OF LK ENHANCING MID LVL MSTR PLUME. FLW SLW TO RELAX AND BLIZZARD WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED PENDING HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT TDA AS SOME SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OVR FAR NW ZONES YET DIMINISHES QUICKLY W/INLAND EXTENT. OTRWS STG GRADIENT FLW REMAINS W/RISE COUPLET SLW TO LIFT OUT THROUGH OH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHLD YIELD CONTD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LK ENHANCEMENT SPREADS FURTHER INLAND THU AM AS LL FLW TURNS NWRLY AND XPC MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCH ADDNL ACCUM W/CONTD GUSTY NW WINDS NOT DIMINISHING UNTIL AFTN. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 REST OF THE PERIOD FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. CHANCE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -13C. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY LOW (AROUND 4 KFT) WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 0-2KM DELTA THETA-E VALUES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF BAND ORGANIZATION. DID RAISE POPS JUST A LITTLE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...A HALF INCH AT BEST. ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST. WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY THOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AFTER A FAIRLY PLEASANT SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. PRETTY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SET TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AND GOOD PV ADVECTION BUT EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DOES APPEAR TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING RAIN AS PTYPE IF ANYTHING OCCURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT IF POSTFRONTAL DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT...AS ARE THERMAL PROFILES. REGARDLESS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 CONTINUED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEFORMATION AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SETUP FROM KSLO-KRZL-KAZO. THIS WILL DRIFT LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. ABUNDANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP COLD AIR WILL FAVOR SNOW ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS. DRY INTRUSION AND COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS. ISOLD TSSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT AS THE COOLING AND MIXING OCCUR, EXPECT TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ005>008-016- 017-022>024. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ018-025-032. MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>081. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ001. LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...LASHLEY SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...T LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...LEWIS VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1225 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 RAIN CHANGES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER SOME HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRY WEATHER REPLACES IT. MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THEN SOME SMALLER RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX CHANCES OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 1032 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 DECIDED TO START THE WINTER HEADLINES FOR TODAY A FEW HOURS EARLY AS WE WERE GETTING REPORTS OF A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AND ICE COVERING TREES AND POWER LINES IN MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SOME SNOW AND ICE WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGE IMPACTS WEIGHED HEAVILY IN THE DECISION TO START THE HEADLINES EARLY. ALSO...EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE HANCOCK...DELAWARE...HENRY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS ELEVATED SURFACES WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING ICE ACCUMULATION. FOR THE MID- MORNING UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE RAIN SNOW MIX THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE GRIDS. HAVE SEEN MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OVER WARREN AND PORTIONS OF TIPPECANOE...FOUNTAIN AND VERMILLION COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT OF WEST LAFAYETTE AROUND 1045 AM. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT STORM. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A NAM/RAP BLEND EARLY WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME STRANGE MOVEMENT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND NAM/RAP BOTH INITIALIZING WELL. FOR TONIGHT LEANED ON CONSENSUS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN PRETTY BRIEF WITH THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTING EVER FURTHER NORTHWARD. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY SLEET THUS FAR...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THIS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS TOOK IT OUT. NOT COMPLETELY RULING IT OUT BUT THINK IF IT HAPPENS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME GOOD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOVES NORTH AND COULD SEE MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING KICKS IN. ALSO DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SET UP AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS ENOUGH IN HOWARD COUNTY TO UPGRADE THEM FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO ADDED MADISON COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY WITH SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THOSE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. EAST OF THERE...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND TOTAL AMOUNTS TO EXPAND THERE JUST YET. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE AND COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE CHANGED WARREN COUNTY OVER TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. ELSEWHERE WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF HEAVY SNOW CONDITIONS FOR LONG ENOUGH TO EXPECT THE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES TO LAST FOR HOURS...BUT ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM THERE OFF AND ON FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANGEOVER LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT A LOT. STILL BY MIDMORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...AFTERNOON CENTRAL...AND NOT UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. DECENT UPPER FORCING LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BUT DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT MUCH LOWER SNOWFALL RATES THAN THOSE SEEN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX SNOWFALL/BANDING TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 409 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS. FOR SNOW POPS ON THURSDAY DID INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE. STILL SEE A SHORTWAVE SPOKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER JUMPS UP DURING THIS TIME DUE TO SHARP LAPSE RATES SO COMBINED WITH THE FORCING EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS AND COMBINING THIS WITH SNOW EXPECT TO SEE SPOTS WHERE VISIBILITIES DROP DRASTICALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. MAY HAVE TO WIND UP EXPANDING ADVISORY BOTH EASTWARD AND IN TIME DEPENDING ON HOW SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AT SLAM DUNK LEVELS AND STILL 24+ HOURS OUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT LATEST GUIDANCE AND GO FROM THERE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT ON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE DONE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL MODEL TRENDS ARE DRIER UNTIL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY THE END OF DAY 7 AND THUS CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 241800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA TRACKING NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO WESTERN OHIO. BULK OF THE STEADIER PRECIP HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN INTENSE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND. THIS IS FALLING PREDOMINANTLY AS SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND/OR RAIN. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE WELL DEFINED TROWAL AT 850MB WILL LIFT OUT ALONG WITH IT. COLDER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. AT KLAF...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE DEFORMATION BAND INFLUENCES SNOW RATES. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN KHUF BY 19-20Z...AND KBMG AND KIND BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. ONCE THE CHANGE TO SNOW TAKES PLACE...EXPECT A PERIOD WITH SUB-IFR VISIBILITIES AND HEAVIER SNOWS INTO THE EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND WAVE ALOFT ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM. WINDS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED IN EXCESS OF 20KTS AND GUSTS AT 30-35KTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST THEN W/NW BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ037>042- 045>049-051>054-060-061-067. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ021-029>031- 035-036-043-044. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ028. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...MRD/CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1155 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WE`LL SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TODAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ALOFT AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1155 AM...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM SLOWLY ABOVE FREEZING. PREV DISC... 945 AM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD AIR IS SLOW TO ERODE...EVEN SLOWER THEN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. I OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS COASTAL MAINE. PREV DISC... UPDATE... COLD AIR HOLDING IN TOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTLINE AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS. FREEZING RAIN NOW OCCURRING FROM PORTSMOUTH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PORTLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. WISCASSET AND ROCKLAND MAY CHANGEOVER AROUND 13Z. THE LATEST HRRR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DELAY IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER/SURFACE WARMING. THIS NEW ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM ACROSS INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL. PREV DISC... A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES AS COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE OVER MAIND AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION ALOFT. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST INITIAL SHORT WAVE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY ALONG THE COAST AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES NEAR/ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. FURTHER INLAND...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES. ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500 FEET MAY HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN THE LONGEST WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES IN THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES PLACING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAIN...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES UPSTATE NEW YORK. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR. HIGH PWAT AND POLEWARD WIND VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTION FORMING LATE AT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON AN INCREASING MIXING LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO SOAR INTO THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH IN PORTLAND FOR THURSDAY IS 51 WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET IN 1984 AND 1985. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE NAM MOS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THEN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST AS SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...MOST AREAS WILL DETEORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH ICING EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTER SOME SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 3.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY POSE SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR THE SACO...PEMI...AND SWIFT RIVERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ018- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-020>022. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ005>011-015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>004. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT. IT DID HAVE 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS IN WRN ND AT 12Z...AND 300 MB WINDS WERE AROUND 115 KNOTS FROM SASK DOWN INTO WRN SD. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED ECHOES DROPPING SEWD ACROSS SD AND PARTS OF NRN NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND EVEN A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE AT SOME SPOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING ARE INTERESTING...WITH SOME 40-50 DBZ ECHOES SHOWN. WILL MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (TRENDING TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW BY MID EVENING) THEN A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW (DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIME) AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED AREAS GETTING AROUND AN INCH. EXPECT LOWS 25 TO 30 AND WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. FLURRIES COULD LINGER THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 30 MPH OR HIGHER. HIGHS SHOULD BE 35 TO 40 NORTH AND 38 TO 42 SOUTH. THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS DRY. MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA EARLY FRIDAY...BUT BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY. STRONGER WARMING SETS IN FOR SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MIX DOWN...WITH A MILD DAY ON TAP. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...FAIRLY CLOSE TO OR ABOVE GFS MOS. DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS DOWN...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLY LAGGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT OUR AREA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MODEST 850-500 MB MEAN RH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY NUMBERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT TOO. OTHERWISE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE SPREADS PCPN INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN IN OUR AREA SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THE PCPN TYPE ACROSS ERN NE AND SWRN IA WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW MORE LIKELY IN OUR NRN ZONES AND RAIN MORE LIKELY SRN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS QPF VALUES ARE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER MAY BE TOO DRY. AT LEAST SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BUT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA IN CASE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS AFFECTING KOMA/KLNK HAS BECOME MORE BROKEN TO SCATTERED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE IN BOTH SITES AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR RAIN/SNOW AT KOFK AND SNOW AT KOMA (DUE TO LATER ARRIVAL)...BUT TOOK MENTION OUT OF KLNK...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IS LOWER. BEHIND PRECIPITATION...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT AND THU. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY... ...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON... TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST LINE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YADKIN RIVER INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WILL REACH THE TRIAD BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM...AND INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA 3-4 PM. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS ARE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WEDGE HAS ERODED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SETTING TABLE FOR SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE UPTICK DUE TO THE MIXING...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. SOME MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT TIMING OF THESE TRENDS ARE IN ORDER...OTHERWISE THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON TRACK PER DISCUSSION BELOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STRENGTHENS FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET (60 KT AT 850MB AT KFFC) TRANSLATES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ALL CONCURRENT WITH A STABILIZES AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF AN INLAND RETREATING WEDGE/COASTAL WARM FRONTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE TIME PERIODS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL UNFOLD THIS MORNING (AND MAY ALREADY BE GETTING GOING WITH AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL APPROACHING RICHMOND COUNTY AT 3AM) AS WARM ADVECTION AND MUCAPE INCREASE ATOP THE STUBBORN WEDGE AIRMASS WHICH IS STILL NEAR THE COAST. THE WEDGE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE WARM SECTOR ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MIX INLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE QUICKLY BY MIDDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT BY 2PM. MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THAT MOVES NORTH...AND WITH TIME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY...WITH A GROWING CONCERN FOR THOSE STORMS INTERSECTING THE HELICITY LADEN WARM FRONT (0-3KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2). THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH 11AM...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AND THEN THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON DEVELOPMENT FORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE (AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WELL-TIMED ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS DCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO MORE SOUTHERN BY THEN...BUT 0-3KM SRH WILL STILL BE 200-300 M2/S2 AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS APPEARS TO BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM. THE HRRR HAS REALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS IN THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS. SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE AREA TO A MODERATE RISK (FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST)...OWING TO THE BEST OVERLAP OF KINEMATICS AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC (POSSIBLY MISSING THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IF THEY DO NOT BREAK OUT PRIOR TO THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION) ...IF NOT FROM CONVECTION THEN FROM 20-25MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40- 45MPH (ENHANCED EVEN BY SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS). A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND A STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 9AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD RACE EAST OF THE AREA BY 7PM OR SO...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 41-48 RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY... SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FINAL AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE SHIFTING THE TROF AXIS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE TRIAD) SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING THURSDAY FEATURING SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND WITH A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND AN ASSOCIATED CHILLIER FEEL THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL TEMPERED BY GOOD MIXING TO KEEP FRIDAY MORNING MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY... COOL AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORNING MINS WILL BE IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. A FINAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY...INITIATING A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS CONCURRENT WITH MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 50S...AND REACH 60 TO 65 ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY TO COOL US BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTH WITH MILD RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE LOWER PLAINS...WITH EXPECTED IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY... MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIAL COLD AIR WEDGE HAS ERODED AND AN INTITIAL LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST...INTO THE TRIAD TAF SITES (GSO/INT) BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. EASTERN SITES MAY EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN LINE REACHING THE SITES 19-22Z. GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS COULD REACH 50 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO. MEANWHILE...THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WILL FEATURE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. AFTER THE CONVECTION WANES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING 20 TO 25 OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS THURSDAY REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z TOMORROW EVENING (BEYOND THE VALID TAF PERIOD). FRIDAY AND BEYOND...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MLM NEAR TERM...22/MLM SHORT TERM...26/MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
526 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FOR 630 UPDATE. TSRA TO SOUTH DIMINISHING AND WITH SUNSET SEE NO REASON TO CONTINUE MENTIONING TSRA. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR SPRINGFIELD OHIO AND ACCORDING TO PRESSURE FALLS...WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ASHTABULA THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE STEADIER STRATIFORM RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH AND IN THE WARM SECTOR WE ARE SEEING CONVECTIVE BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVELY COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THEY WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S TODAY...BUT OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST- NORTHWEST FIRST NEAR THE TOLEDO/FINDLAY AREA THEN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. THE WIND SHIFT IS A DECENT PROXY TO THE POSITION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. REALLY A MARGINAL SNOW EVENT BUT HAVE PUT UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP NEAR 3 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN ACTUAL ACCUMULATING CAN START. BEGAN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH LATER OVERNIGHT. BULK OF IMPACT WILL BE THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NW OH CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. BY THEN SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND WILL BE TAPERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AGAIN A MARGINAL SNOW EVENT FOR NE OH/NW PA AS THE SNOW WILL BE DRAWN OUT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART PEOPLE SHOULD END UP WITH 4 OR 5 INCHES. A FEW 6 INCH REPORTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA. WE DO NOT GET A TRUE LAKE CONTRIBUTION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE END. SNOWBELT SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE INVERSION DROPS. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS ALL OTHERS QUIET AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GO NO WHERE ON THURSDAY. AGAIN COLD AIR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WE WILL END UP BEING SEASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RATHER BENIGN SATURDAY AND FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR CALM WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIT AND MISS FOR THE MOST PART WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... THE MODELS TEND TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA. SINCE THE AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WARM...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST ON MONDAY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS COMING FROM A COLD DRY CANADIAN CLIMATE...CAN CERTAINLY SEE THIS SYSTEM REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND SNOW CHANCES REMAINING RELATIVELY LIMITED BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT... THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIFFER. THE GFS BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WOULD MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD STREAM IN SOME WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF DRAWS IN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH THAT BRINGS COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE A DRIER AIR MASS BUT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ALTHOUGH BIASED THE GFS A BIT AS IT HAS HANDLED THE CURRENT SYSTEM BETTER AND THE WARMER SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE THEME AS OF LATE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA. GOES-14 ONE MINUTE RAPID SCAN SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF VFR CONDITION PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE VFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING YNG...ERI AND POSSIBLY CAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR SHOULD REMAIN AT TOL AND FDY. MFD AND CLE WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WESTERN SITES TOL AND FDY AROUND 00Z...04Z AT MFD AND CLE...AFT 06Z FOR CAK...YNG AND ERI. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE SNOW BY 12Z THU. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW TWO MILES IN THE SNOW OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PERIODICALLY. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. NON VFR WILL CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL CREATE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. I WILL ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. IT IS A MARGINAL GALE FOR THURSDAY. I AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON THE GALE WARNING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ011>014-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006- 017. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC AVIATION...GARNET MARINE...GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
409 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY...AND SHIFT OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR SPRINGFIELD OHIO AND ACCORDING TO PRESSURE FALLS...WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ASHTABULA THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE STEADIER STRATIFORM RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH AND IN THE WARM SECTOR WE ARE SEEING CONVECTIVE BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVELY COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THEY WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S TODAY...BUT OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST- NORTHWEST FIRST NEAR THE TOLEDO/FINDLAY AREA THEN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. THE WIND SHIFT IS A DECENT PROXY TO THE POSITION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. REALLY A MARGINAL SNOW EVENT BUT HAVE PUT UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP NEAR 3 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN ACTUAL ACCUMULATING CAN START. BEGAN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH LATER OVERNIGHT. BULK OF IMPACT WILL BE THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NW OH CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. BY THEN SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND WILL BE TAPERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AGAIN A MARGINAL SNOW EVENT FOR NE OH/NW PA AS THE SNOW WILL BE DRAWN OUT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART PEOPLE SHOULD END UP WITH 4 OR 5 INCHES. A FEW 6 INCH REPORTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA. WE DO NOT GET A TRUE LAKE CONTRIBUTION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE END. SNOWBELT SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE INVERSION DROPS. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS ALL OTHERS QUIET AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GO NO WHERE ON THURSDAY. AGAIN COLD AIR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WE WILL END UP BEING SEASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A RATHER BENIGN SATURDAY AND FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR CALM WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIT AND MISS FOR THE MOST PART WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... THE MODELS TEND TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA. SINCE THE AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WARM...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST ON MONDAY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS COMING FROM A COLD DRY CANADIAN CLIMATE...CAN CERTAINLY SEE THIS SYSTEM REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND SNOW CHANCES REMAINING RELATIVELY LIMITED BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT... THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIFFER. THE GFS BRINGS IN AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA THAT WOULD MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD STREAM IN SOME WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD USHER IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF DRAWS IN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH THAT BRINGS COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE A DRIER AIR MASS BUT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ALTHOUGH BIASED THE GFS A BIT AS IT HAS HANDLED THE CURRENT SYSTEM BETTER AND THE WARMER SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE THEME AS OF LATE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA. GOES-14 ONE MINUTE RAPID SCAN SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF VFR CONDITION PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE VFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING YNG...ERI AND POSSIBLY CAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR SHOULD REMAIN AT TOL AND FDY. MFD AND CLE WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WESTERN SITES TOL AND FDY AROUND 00Z...04Z AT MFD AND CLE...AFT 06Z FOR CAK...YNG AND ERI. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE SNOW BY 12Z THU. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW TWO MILES IN THE SNOW OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PERIODICALLY. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. NON VFR WILL CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL CREATE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. I WILL ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. IT IS A MARGINAL GALE FOR THURSDAY. I AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON THE GALE WARNING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ011>014-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006- 017. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC AVIATION...GARNET MARINE...GARNET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1254 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING WHEN THEY REACH NORTHERN OHIO...AND RAIN WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR GETS PULLED IN ON WESTERLY WIND. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD HAS PIVOTED UP INTO NORTHERN OHIO WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA NOW LIGHTER AND SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AN INCH OR SO...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WE HAVE HAD A FEW SPOTTY REPORTS OF ICING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A TRAVEL ISSUE WITH THIS...BUT SOME LIGHT ICING ON EXPOSED SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL TEMPERATURES BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS WHERE WE WILL GET INTO A BIT OF A WARM SECTOR...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES OF GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY SYNCED UP WITH THE BETTER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING SHEAR...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE LOW CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON WESTERLY WINDS AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WARM AND WET GROUND BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND EXPECTED QPF...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NOTED NORTH OF METROPOLITAN DAYTON. AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN....SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SHARP TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE FAR WESTERN STATES...WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND GRAZING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILN FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE CONTINUING WITHIN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ON FRIDAY MORNING...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW. A THICK STRATOCUMULUS DECK LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY TO EXIST...AND THIS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING...WHEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT ALIGNMENT ON THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE GOOD...BUT UNSURPRISINGLY...DETAILS ON THE SPEED OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ARE IN MUCH POORER AGREEMENT. AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF WARM ADVECTION...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION OCCURS SHOULD START AS RAIN...AND MAY STAY THAT WAY IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MIX WITH SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO LARGE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT A SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC RESULT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING BEYOND THAT POINT IS IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. AFTER MONDAY...500MB GFSE PERTURBATIONS BECOME COMPLETELY MISALIGNED AND OUT OF PHASE. THUS...SPECIFICS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY ARE VERY LOW IN CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF KCVG WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE UP ALONG I-71 THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...EXPECT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK UP TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO IFR. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN GOOD CAA...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND IFR TO MVFR VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO PREVAIL ON INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE. STILL EVALUATING SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND A NEW ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AT LEAST NW OH. NE OH/NW PA ALSO A CONCERN BUT MORE FOR THURSDAY. MONITORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS OF 10 AM HAVE RECEIVED 1.01 INCHES AT MANSFIELD. CAK AND MNN AT 0.98 INCHES. FDY AT 0.70. SHORT TERM CONCERN LIES WITH CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE MAHONING VALLEY. CONCERN WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON TOP OF THAT. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL WATCH FLOOD THREAT. TRACK OF SYSTEM BASED ON THE PRESSURE FALLS IS HEADED TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. DELAYED BIG RISE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY JUST A FEW HOURS. NICE GRADIENT IN TEMPS EXPECTED...WITH MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND MID 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING RAIN TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WRAP AROUND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FROM THE RAIN. SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MEAN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SOME LINGERING SNOW ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND BRING A RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEMS...ANY TIMING DIFFERENCES CAN MAKE FOR SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE AND POP ERRORS. THE MODELS WANT TO BRING THE WARM AIR BACK ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT GUIDANCE GIVES POPS FROM ABOUT 10 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH TO NEAR 25 PERCENT AROUND TOLEDO AND CANNOT REALLY ARGUE AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR 50 OR PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER. THE GUSTY PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER AND THE ECMWF IS WETTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL STAND PAT FOR NOW GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AS A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME BEING. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA. GOES-14 ONE MINUTE RAPID SCAN SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF VFR CONDITION PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE VFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING YNG...ERI AND POSSIBLY CAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR SHOULD REMAIN AT TOL AND FDY. MFD AND CLE WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. WESTERN SITES TOL AND FDY AROUND 00Z...04Z AT MFD AND CLE...AFT 06Z FOR CAK...YNG AND ERI. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE SNOW BY 12Z THU. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW TWO MILES IN THE SNOW OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PERIODICALLY. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. NON VFR WILL CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OVER LAKE ERIE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...IT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL BASIN. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR A SHORT TIME ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...THEN PICK BACK UP FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE WILL PROBABLY STAY AROUND 30 KNOTS. WILL EMPHASIZE THE FIRST GALE WARNING TODAY AND CONTINUE TO EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OF A GALE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>148- 162>168. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...GARNET MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1117 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR ceilings will begin to clear out of NW Arkansas and all areas will be VFR after 21z. Wind gusts will subside late this afternoon, with another frontal passage tonight bringing a small increase in NW winds after 06z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/ DISCUSSION... Departing upper level low continues to result in gusty northwest winds in much of the area with some low clouds persisting across NW Arkansas into far NE Oklahoma. Overall trend through today will be gradual clearing with decrease in wind speeds, especially by late afternoon. A few small changes made to reflect current trends but overall, the short term forecast is in good shape. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR ceilings will persist into this afternoon at KFYV/KXNA/KROG. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty northwest winds today will diminish this evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/ DISCUSSION... Precipitation is beginning taper off across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. Most of the precipitation has transitioned back to rain at all the observation stations across western Arkansas. The HRRR has the precipitation moving out of the forecast area by 10z. Will be cancelling the Winter Weather Advisory before 8 am expiration time. Same goes for the Wind Advisory. Have not seen any wind gusts in the 40 mph range in some time. Otherwise, skies will clear out from west to east across the area as the storm system currently over western Tennessee moves off to the north-northeast. A cold front will move through the region Tonight and will keep temperatures generally below normal for this time of year through Friday morning. A warm up ensues Friday and especially over the weekend as the low level winds become south-southwesterly. Another cold front moves through the region Sunday night with no precipitation expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come as we move into the Tue-Wed time frame as the next storm system approaches. TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 51 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 54 31 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 54 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 45 28 45 25 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 46 30 45 26 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 53 32 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 48 30 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 F10 55 33 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 56 34 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1012 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... Departing upper level low continues to result in gusty northwest winds in much of the area with some low clouds persisting across NW Arkansas into far NE Oklahoma. Overall trend through today will be gradual clearing with decrease in wind speeds, especially by late afternoon. A few small changes made to reflect current trends but overall, the short term forecast is in good shape. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR ceilings will persist into this afternoon at KFYV/KXNA/KROG. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty northwest winds today will diminish this evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/ DISCUSSION... Precipitation is beginning taper off across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. Most of the precipitation has transitioned back to rain at all the observation stations across western Arkansas. The HRRR has the precipitation moving out of the forecast area by 10z. Will be cancelling the Winter Weather Advisory before 8 am expiration time. Same goes for the Wind Advisory. Have not seen any wind gusts in the 40 mph range in some time. Otherwise, skies will clear out from west to east across the area as the storm system currently over western Tennessee moves off to the north-northeast. A cold front will move through the region Tonight and will keep temperatures generally below normal for this time of year through Friday morning. A warm up ensues Friday and especially over the weekend as the low level winds become south-southwesterly. Another cold front moves through the region Sunday night with no precipitation expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come as we move into the Tue-Wed time frame as the next storm system approaches. TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 51 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 54 31 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 54 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 45 28 45 25 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 46 30 45 26 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 53 32 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 48 30 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 F10 55 33 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 56 34 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND SWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 AM...WITH STRONG LLVL WINDS AND DEEP MIXING...MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT IS REALIZING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 48 KTS. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES FALLING DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES. GIVEN THE WET SOILS LOOSENING ROOTS...EVEN SUB-WARNING WINDS ARE KNOCKING DOWN MORE TREES THAN USUAL. SO HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL THE PIEDMONT AND THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS UNTIL 7 PM. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WIND ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD THRU MIDNIGHT. AS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATED...THE LINE OF STORMS ARE QUICKLY CROSSING THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWFA...ALREADY EAST OF I-77. A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS LINE...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED SOON. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS WANING...BUT WILL LEAVE UP THE PORTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THE REST OF THE WATCH WAS CANCELED. AS OF 1000 AM...THE WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT AS EXPECTED...WITH JUST THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT STILL IN THE WEDGE. THE LAPS AND RAP CAPE ANALYSES SHOWING THE UNCOVERED AIR MASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE...WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. THIS POCKET OF BEST INSTABILITY IS LINING UP WITH DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NC ESCARPMENT TO AROUND GREENWOOD SC. THIS BROKEN LINE WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST...WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND WIND/HAIL/TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING. THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE SLGT RISK TO THE EAST...NOW JUST BARELY CLIPPING THE EASTERN TIER OF OUR COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LINE UP BEST FOR MORE ROBUST SUPERCELLS. THE RAP 0-1 KM EHI OVER 1 EAST OF I-77 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST...THERE IS A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT LOOKS TO BE WINDS...BOTH IN CONVECTION AND JUST WITH MIXING. THE LATEST NAM AND HIGH RES/NEAR TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING SOLID 30-40 MPH GUSTS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA FROM MIDDAY THRU THE EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST POSSIBLE. THE WIND HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT APPEARS VERY INTERESTING AFTER MID MORNING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A VERY LOW LFC...GENERALLY 2 KFT. HELICITY BETWEEN 0-1 KM IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 250-300 M2/S2 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD EASILY INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND NE UPSTATE OF SC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDGE BOUNDARY...REACHING 600-900 J/KG. IN FACT...MID DAY VALUES OF EHI OVER KCLT NEAR 2.5 ACCORDING TO THE NAM. IN ADDITION...GFS360 INDICATES THAT A BELT OF H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTER HOURS. CAMS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY APPEAR VERY REALISTIC GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT...SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A ISOLATED TORNADO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SVR TSRA IN THE HWO AND THE FORECAST. THE SECOND HAZARD IS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SO FAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS BLOCKING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS AND PRESENT HIGH STREAM FLOWS WOULD YIELD EASY CONDITIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP...NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE SATURATED GROUND AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY YIELD DOWNED TREES TODAY AND THIS EVENING...I WILL KEEP WIND HEADLINES THROUGH THIS MORNING. EXTENDING WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE MTNS TO MATCH FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...CAA...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NC MTNS. GIVEN THE TIMING THE CAA...PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER THE -SN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FLOW WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SHSN ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE MANY AREAS ALONG THE TN LINE WILL SEE AROUND TWO INCHES ON THE GROUND BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD LOOKING SITUATION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...DOMINATED MAINLY BY AN UPPER TROF LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS... MAINLY NEAR THE TN BORDER...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY AS SNOW EVEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS MAY CLIMB CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS. ON THE ONE HAND...THE FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT DOES VEER AROUND TO A MORE NW DIRECTION AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WHAT THE SITUATION LACKS IN MECHANICAL FORCING WILL BE MADE UP BY SFC-BASED CAPE AROUND 100-150 J/KG HELPING TO FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAIN ZONES NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...OUTSIDE THE MTNS...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK CONTAINMENT WITHOUT ANY UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO SOME 40KT WIND UP AROUND 750-800 MB. EXPECT A WINDY DAY OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE OWING TO ONGOING THREATS TODAY. THE NW FLOW MOISTURE PULLS OUT ON FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THRU THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISAGREE IF THERE WILL BE ANY SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS...AS THEY DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP... EVEN WITH A FINAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NW UPSLOPE REGION. A DRY FCST WAS INHERITED...SO A CHANGE WILL NOT BE MADE AT THIS POINT. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MTNS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROF FINALLY SLIPPING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS THRU SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE RESPONSE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN THE GFS DOES NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL PUSH BACK THE PRECIP CHANCE REACHING THE MTNS UNTIL LATER IN THAT PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP THAT REACHES THE MTNS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY SHOULD BE LIQUID. BEYOND THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING...AS DEEP MIXING AND STRONG LLVL WIND FIELD IS COMBINING TO PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE...AND OCCASIONALLY 40-48 KT ACROSS THE UPSTATE. THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS JUST EXITING EAST OF KCLT AT TIME OF 18Z TAF. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT AREA RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS HAS WANED. A LOW VFR CUMULUS DECK IS WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...WITH SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER SNEAKING AROUND THE MTNS FROM THE SW INTO THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THIS THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN...BUT GENERALLY 4000 TO 6000 FT. GUIDANCE WANTS TO LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AT KAND FOR EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL GO WITH 3500 FT FOR NOW. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...AS FLOW VEERS TO MORE WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPING INCREASES. GUSTY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY. AT KAVL...WITH THE WINDS BEING MORE ACROSS THE VALLEY...GUSTS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS IN THE PIEDMONT...BUT STILL GUSTY OUT OF THE SW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW LATER THIS EVENING...AND SOME LOW VFR OR MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD WORK UP THE VALLEY FORM THE N. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...SO WILL GO WITH PROB30. OUTLOOK...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER. DRYING EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z KCLT HIGH 93% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 97% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL MED 74% MED 67% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017- 018-026-028-029. WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-035- 048>050-053-065-501>510. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037- 051-052-056>059-062>064-068>072-082. WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ036-037-051-052-056>059-062>064-068>072-082. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037- 056-057-069>072-082. SC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014- 019. WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>014-019. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...ARK/NED SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...ARK