Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/23/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST SUN FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES WITH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA...PROVIDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND MONDAY...
NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE
PERSISTENT FEBRUARY WARMTH. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND MONDAY...TRANSLATING TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AS ADVERTISED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TDA AND MON TEMPS AT PHX AND YUM ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THE OLD 1982 RECORDS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...ALBEIT A BIT
BREEZY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE. BREEZINESS IS RELATED TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH.
TUESDAY...
A PACIFIC STORM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT WILL SPREAD COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR A GENERAL 5 TO 6 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPS OVER MONDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AT PHOENIX AND YUMA FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST. THE
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING OF KATABATIC
WINDS AS THEY FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
WARM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINING SORT OF STEADY
STATE...I.E. IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SUNDAY...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH STRONGER THAN
THE EUROPEAN...AND THIS FAR OUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREADS...
REGARDING DISTURBANCE STRENGTH AND TIMING...GIVE US LOW CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TO GIVE
US SOME COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SUNDAY. THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...FAVORING SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW HUMIDITIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DIP BELOW 10 PERCENT AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...BELOW 15 PERCENT HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THOUGH SOME RIDGETOP LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHOENIX | YUMA
FCST | RECORD /YEAR/ | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/
HIGH HIGH
SUN FEB 21 87 | 86 /1982 | 88 | 89 /1982
MON FEB 22 88 | 87 /1982 | 89 | 88 /1982
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1015 PM PST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected through the week with above normal
temperatures and some patchy morning valley fog.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Skies are clearing over Norcal and with light winds...the potential
for valley fog is rising. The HRRR VSBY prog suggests an area of dense
fog is possible from around Manteca...Nwd up to Durham...mainly
affecting the I-5 corridor. Nly winds should inhibit or limit fog
Mon/Tue mornings.
Dry weather with a warming trend will impact our region into
early next week as high pressure over the west coast strengthens
through Tuesday. Daytime highs will measure in the low to mid 60s
today across the valley with 40s and 50s across higher terrain. On
Sunday, daytime highs will be about 2-3 degrees warmer than today
with a more significant warm up Monday & Tuesday. The ridge
develops a higher amplitude with the axis centered over NorCal on
Mon-Tue. Expect valley highs to peak in the low 70s with 50s and
60s in higher terrain. That places Monday & Tuesday highs about
8-12 degrees above average for this time of year.
Nly winds may be strong enough on Mon to generate adiabatic warming...
pushing max temps above the forecast/guidance highs. Some areas
with records in the mid 70s for the 22nd may flirt with these records.
Weakening Nly winds on Tue should reduce the chances of max temps
save for SCK. The record table for the 22nd/23rd is below.
Feb 22
Modesto.........73...1985
Red Bluff.......78...2012
Redding.........80...1995
Downtown SAC....78...1985
Sac Exec AP.....75...1985
Stockton........74...1985
Feb 23
Modesto.........74...2014
Red Bluff.......80...1985
Redding.........75...1991
Downtown SAC....79...1991
Sac Exec AP.....75...1991
Stockton........73...2014
Winds will generally be light in the short term and the main
concern between now and Tuesday will be the development of patchy
morning valley fog. Motorists should be cautious during morning
commutes as visibilities may change suddenly along the road. Main
areas of concern for patchy fog include the Modesto-Stockton area
up into the Sac Metro region and northward into Marysville and
towards Chico. Some fog may also impact the Delta region. JBB
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Strong upper ridging over the west coast will keep Norcal dry
Wednesday through the end of the work week with daytime highs well
above normal. Light winds and stable conditions under the ridge
will allow for some valley fog to form nights and mornings from
about the Sacramento region southward. Extended models trending
towards a displacement of the ridge eastward by early next weekend
as a Pacific frontal system approaches the coast but models still
differ on details. For now it appears that the frontal system will
undergo some sort of split as in moves inland. Although some light
precipitation may be possible next weekend, considering strength
of the ridge, it seems likely this system will have minimal
impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Patchy dense fog may
redevelop along the Valley south of Chico late tonight and Sunday
morning. Winds will remain below 10 kts, generally out of the
north.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
436 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MORE SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FORM THE SOUTH.
A STRONGER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FORCE THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL HEAD NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT NOTED WITH LATEST NWP MODEL SUITE...ALONG WITH
QUICK LAST MINUTE LOOK AT RAP AND HRRR. SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PASSES SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND FAST MOVING UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY DEPARTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SHARP
GRADIENT TO THE RAIN...AND THUS POPS TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE NW ZONES TO CATEGORICAL CSTL ZONES.
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS A MOS BLEND GENERALLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT 20S WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST...WITH IMPRESSIVE ENERGY OUT WEST
CARVING OUT DEEPER TROUGH UPSTREAM THIS TIME FRAME.
IN THE MEANTIME...CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY
WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NE...APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COMBO OF SFC COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
SPIN UP A WEAK LOW E OF HATTERAS ON TUE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. P-TYPE BASED ON
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO START...
THEN AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...AND MIX WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN TUE NIGHT INLAND. WINTRY PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN INLAND DURING WED MORNING.
AS THIS WEAK LOW MOVES EAST AND AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES INTO THE
OH VALLEY...A WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT CLOSER TO THE
AREA...WITH A STEADY MODERATE RAIN REDEVELOPING ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...THEN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH...STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW TRANSPORTS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PW NEARING 1.5 INCHES...
AND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH STRONG
FORCING ALOFT TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...COULD BE LOOKING AT A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER THIS WEEK...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
HEAVY RAIN BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...WITH TIMING
ANYWHERE FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING PER SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ECMWF TIMING. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE 40S ON WED AND THEN INTO THE 50S WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING.
STEADY/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT OFF AFTER COLD FROPA AS
DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SW...BUT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING
SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLD-SCT RAIN
SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLD SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS THU NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
MAINLY DRY LATER THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH BRISK CONDS AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN AVG TEMPS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
PASS OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE TERMINALS (EXCEPT KSWF) THIS
EVENING.
THE HIGH CIRRUS CEILING LOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINS SOLID
VFR. RAIN ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FALL TO MARGINAL VFR BY LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY DUE
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECT AT
THIS TIME.
WIND LIGHTENS SOME MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION.
VFR RETURNS ALL TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. NICE FLYING WX ON
MONDAY...BEST OF THE WEEK.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE AFTN...VFR. LGT N SFC WIND MON AFTN...E 15-20 KT
TUE.
.MON NGT-WED NGT...BECOMING MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN. NE SFC WND
VEERING SE WED AFTN AND INCREASING WITH GUSTS 35 KT ALONG COAST.
STRONG LLWS/COMPRESSION LIKELY.
.THU...MVFR TO IFR IN RA...IMPROVING LATE. SW SFC WND 15-20 KT
INCREASING LATE DAY WITH GUSTS 35 KT AT NIGHT.
.FRI...VFR. W SFC WND GUST 35 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE WATERS. AS SUCH...WILL CANCEL
THE INITIAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
INCREASE BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALREADY
ELEVATED SEAS DUE TO SWELL BUILD ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...WILL ISSUE A NEW SCA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING E FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW/WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN
SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN FROM TUE INTO WED. WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT
SE-S WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AND INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN...ERN SOUND AND BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND...AND STRONG SCA CONDS ON THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND.
BRISK POST-FRONTAL W FLOW SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN SCA CONDS ON THE
OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND LATER THU INTO FRI EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
PRECIP AS A WAVE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TUE
AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...
WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SOME OF THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...MAINLY INLAND.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BRING ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THIS HAS
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE FOCUSED
MORE FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS WILL BE THE
CASE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEMP/DEW POINT SENSOR AT KMMK /MERIDEN CT/ IS ERRONEOUS AND HAS
BEEN TURNED OFF.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
335 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY. THE LOW WEAKENS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT NOTED WITH LATEST NWP MODEL SUITE...ALONG WITH
QUICK LAST MINUTE LOOK AT RAP AND HRRR. SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PASSES SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND FAST MOVING UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY DEPARTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SHARP
GRADIENT TO THE RAIN...AND THUS POPS TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE NW ZONES TO CATEGORICAL CSTL ZONES.
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS A MOS BLEND GENERALLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT 20S WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST...WITH IMPRESSIVE ENERGY OUT WEST
CARVING OUT DEEPER TROUGH UPSTREAM THIS TIME FRAME.
IN THE MEANTIME...CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY
WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
REGARDING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WED. FIRST...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTH...THINK LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING VIA PERSISTENT E-NE MARITIME FLOW WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND ITS LEADING WARM FRONT. TOP-DOWN P-TYPE
METHOD SUGGESTS EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN GIVEN LACK OF
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO AID IN ICE NUCLEATION...WHILE
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. AT THIS
EARLY STAGE IN THE GAME MENTIONED BOTH P-TYPES. THEN...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES IN ON SW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA
STRENGTHENS...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE PDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU AM AS A SFC WARM FRONT/LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT...THEN AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF EVEN LIFTS
WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH THU MORNING BEFORE COLD FROPA... WITH
ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
HEAVY/SQUALLY CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND BEFORE COLD FROPA. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE THROUGH THE 40S WED NIGHT AND THE INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S ON THU...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN THAT IF AREA
GETS IN WARM SECTOR.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN TO LEVELS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVG AFTER COLD FROPA FOR FRI-SAT...WITH GUSTY W-NW FLOW AND ALSO
CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPING SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ON SAT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
PASS OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE TERMINALS (EXCEPT KSWF) THIS
EVENING.
THE HIGH CIRRUS CEILING LOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINS SOLID
VFR. RAIN ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FALL TO MARGINAL VFR BY LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY DUE
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECT AT
THIS TIME.
WIND LIGHTENS SOME MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION.
VFR RETURNS ALL TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. NICE FLYING WX ON
MONDAY...BEST OF THE WEEK.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE AFTN...VFR. LGT N SFC WIND MON AFTN...E 15-20 KT
TUE.
.MON NGT-WED NGT...BECOMING MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN. NE SFC WND
VEERING SE WED AFTN AND INCREASING WITH GUSTS 35 KT ALONG COAST.
STRONG LLWS/COMPRESSION LIKELY.
.THU...MVFR TO IFR IN RA...IMPROVING LATE. SW SFC WND 15-20 KT
INCREASING LATE DAY WITH GUSTS 35 KT AT NIGHT.
.FRI...VFR. W SFC WND GUST 35 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE WATERS. AS SUCH...WILL CANCEL
THE INITIAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
INCREASE BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALREADY
ELEVATED SEAS DUE TO SWELL BUILD ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...WILL ISSUE A NEW SCA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A DEVELOPING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BUILD
OCEAN SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TO THE WEST WINDS
AND GUSTS INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BECOME
LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. IF A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY...THE
OCEAN COULD SEE GALES AND THE REMAINING WATERS AT LEAST SCA CONDS IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING DURING MID WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. THE PCPN SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. NUISANCE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY.
HEAVIEST RAIN ATTM EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEMP/DEW POINT SENSOR AT KMMK /MERIDEN CT/ IS ERRONEOUS AND HAS
BEEN TURNED OFF.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MAINLY
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CONFIGURATION HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE SATURDAY AND STILL OVERRIDES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE
SOME EVIDENCE OF SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS STREAM OVER
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TOWARD THE JET CORE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE VERY
MUCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE POSITION WILL KEEP OUR
GRADIENT LIGHT AND ALLOW SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
MIXING WORKS UP INTO A CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BELOW OUR CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 870MB. THE PAST
TWO DAYS HAVE SEEN MIXING THAT REACHED UP BEYOND THIS CAPPING
LAYER...AND SEE LITTLE REASON THIS WOULD NOT REPEAT TODAY.
THEREFORE...DEEP INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE
CUMULUS FIELDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ZONAL PATTERN CURRENTLY ALOFT WILL BECOME SLOWLY MORE
DISTURBED WITH TIME AS WE HEAD THROUGH THEN NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
PATTERN WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT (ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE) KEEPING OUR LOCAL WEATHER DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT BEGIN TO
EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD OUR REGION. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...THE ONLY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO FILTER AND THEN POTENTIALLY BLOCK THE SUN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH INSOLATION EARLIER IN THE DAY TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASY GET UP INTO THE 70S BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE WEAK...SO FEEBLE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TURN THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AFTER
1-2PM...AND COOL THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. VERY LATE IN THE
DAY...WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK WARM FRONT ORGANIZING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD. SOME FAIRLY
DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE OVER THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH ARRIVING WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCE AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO SOME
ADDED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
FORCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS. NOTHING
WIDESPREAD OR ANYTHING...BUT HAVE PAINTED A 20-30% RAIN CHANCE
AFTER 20Z TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT MIGRATES INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST PART OF A MULTI-STAGE SYSTEM THAT
WILL FINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
AN INITIAL PATTERN OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE GULF AND FL WILL DEEPEN
INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE MID OR LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU. THE UPPER LOW FORMS A
RATHER ROBUST ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION THAT DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF AND THROUGH FL TO THE ATLANTIC. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS FL WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FOR TUE AND TUE. INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
LIKELY SHOWERS AND CHANCE STORMS. THE BEST ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO STAY
ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GULF COAST AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT AND BECOME AROUND 20 KNOTS...WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON
COASTAL WATERS AND ALSO POSSIBLY AT THE BEACHES.
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SUN: THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA WITH TROUGHINESS TO THE SOUTH MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN STATES...WITH FLOW ALOFT THE
GULF AND FL SHIFTING FROM NEAR ZONAL TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE CANADAIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN OVER THE PLAINS THEN
SETTLES ACROSS THE GULF AND FL. A DRY STABLE AND COOL AIR MASS TAKES
CONTROL WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGHOUT WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 09Z AND MAINLY FOR
KLAL AND KPGD. ANY EARLY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT QUICKLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. ANTICIPATED WINDS
NEAR THE COAST TO SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLD CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFTS EAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...PREVENTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY INLAND.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL INCREASE NEAR THE SHORE AS
WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANY THREAT OF SEA FOG MOVING
ONSHORE WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 75 64 77 / 0 10 30 30
FMY 60 78 64 82 / 10 20 10 40
GIF 59 79 63 80 / 0 20 30 40
SRQ 58 71 61 76 / 0 10 20 30
BKV 54 77 59 80 / 0 10 30 40
SPG 61 73 64 77 / 0 10 30 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1219 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)... 17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. SOUTHERN STREAM
JET CONFIGURATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE SATURDAY AND STILL
OVERRIDES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS.
ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THIS STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE JET CORE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE VERY
MUCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE POSITION WILL KEEP OUR
GRADIENT LIGHT AND ALLOW SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
MIXING WORKS UP INTO A CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BELOW OUR CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 870MB. THE PAST
TWO DAYS HAVE SEEN MIXING THAT REACHED UP BEYOND THIS CAPPING
LAYER...AND SEE LITTLE REASON THIS WOULD NOT REPEAT TODAY.
THEREFORE...DEEP INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE
CUMULUS FIELDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
IF YOU HAVE STEPPED OUTSIDE RECENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
PLEASANT FOR FEBRUARY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE UP INTO THE 70S NOW.
WITH TIME...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL OBS BEGIN TO
TURN ONSHORE WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THIS OCCURS...THEN
SHOULD SEE TEMPS AT THE BEACHES DROP BACK AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES COMPARED TO SPOTS ONLY A FEW MILES INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGHOUT WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 09Z AND MAINLY FOR
KLAL AND KPGD. ANY EARLY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT QUICKLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING OR LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. ANTICIPATED WINDS
NEAR THE COAST TO SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 76 62 77 / 10 10 20 30
FMY 61 80 64 81 / 10 10 20 30
GIF 59 79 62 80 / 10 20 20 40
SRQ 57 75 61 75 / 10 10 20 20
BKV 50 79 57 79 / 10 10 20 40
SPG 61 76 63 75 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
339 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.NEAR TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GENERAL MODEL TREND CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER N
CENTRAL FL TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
FOR TODAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS LOOK TO AFFECT AT
LEAST THE NRN 2/RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR
UNCERTAINTY ON HIGH TEMPS. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS BASED MORE ON
BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE HIGHS A BIT
LOWER THAN WE ADVERTISED. RAP MODEL SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTN HOURS AOA 20 KFT WHICH GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD. WE
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S OVER SE GA AND MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER NE FL. AFTN ATLC SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST
AROUND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BROAD SW TO W FLOW EXPECTED TODAY
BELOW AROUND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL FL WHILE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM MID
ATLC STATES WSW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES ESEWD. DEEPEST
MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH FRONT REMAINS NW OF THE AREA SO DRY CONDS
WILL CONTINUE. SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NE
FL BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NOT A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR ANY
DENSE FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT. MONDAY...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL GA/SC TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
NUDGE SEWD WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR NW
ZONES ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN. HAVE POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE NW OF A LINE FROM JESUP TO PEARSON...HIGHEST AROUND JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY. ISOLD WEAK SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM MARION-PUTNAM-
FLAGLER COUNTIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING IN THE
AFTN. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GFS AND ECM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN TUESDAY...WITH
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING ESE ACRS NRN TX AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE
LOW NEAR DALLAS TX. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OVER OUR REGION...CAUSING WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN GA AND
INITIATION OF RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WELL AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM.
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED T-STORM
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...STRONG UPR LOW MOVES OVER NRN MS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING
ENE TO AROUND MEMPHIS. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST LIFTS WELL
N...WITH BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
DIFFERENT THAN IN PAST SYSTEMS WHERE WE HAVE A MORE NARROW WARM
SECTOR AND LESSER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IN CURRENT
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE BROAD AREA OF 60+ DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD
IN WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN VERY MILD LOW TEMPS IN UPR 50S TO
AROUND 60.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOW SIGNIFICANT MAY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF EXPECTED SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES
OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF UPPER SYSTEM ENDS UP STRONGER AND SLOWER...EVENT
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF SFC CAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...STEEPER THAN USUAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND DYNAMICS (UPR JET STREAK AND
50+KT LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING OVER FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON)
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. WE`LL NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SYSTEM MOVES E OF AREA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH BREEZY COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA FRI DRY WITH SECOND UPPER TROUGH...MAINTAINING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S....DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING WEAKER WINDS FRI AND SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HRS. JUST LOW END CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBY FOR INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT IS FROM BECOMING PREVAILING. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY IN
THE MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS AS RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. ATLC SEA BREEZE TO SHIFT WINDS TO SELY AT
SSI...CRG AND SGJ BY 18Z-21Z.
&&
.MARINE...S TO SW WINDS AT 10-15 KT AT TIMES EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. SEAS AROUND 2.5-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE...
MAINLY FROM E SWELLS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
TUESDAY BUT STALL OVER EASTERN GA. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING PROBABLE. SOME TSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY LIKELY AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY DUE TO ELY
SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 76 55 74 54 / 0 10 30 50
SSI 69 55 69 55 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 76 54 76 55 / 0 10 10 20
SGJ 72 55 72 57 / 0 10 10 10
GNV 76 52 76 54 / 0 10 10 10
OCF 76 52 76 55 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1034 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR
THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IT WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE FRONT VERY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING...ONLY SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH DUE TO A WSW UPPER FLOW.
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
AND WEST OF CAE. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING THAT TREND WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT STALLED
NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT SHOWERS. THE MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A REDUCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS HAD POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND THE WEDGE PATTERN
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING A WARM FRONT.
BELIEVE THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG H85 JET. THE MODEL INDICATE H85 WIND INCREASING TO
AROUND 50 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY 12Z. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN INDICATES LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH
SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET
OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED
SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR
THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN THE CSRA AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING DURING THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT RAINFALL TO GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH
THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS IMPACTING AGS/DNL/CAE UNTIL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PASSES. SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS BRIEFLY PREVAILED
AT CAE AND REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF CAE/CUB BY
06Z BUT MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT AND LOW CIGS AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY SUPPORT MVFR/IFR VSBYS ALL TERMINALS
08Z-14Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1023 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR
THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IT WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE FRONT VERY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING...ONLY SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH DUE TO A WSW UPPER FLOW.
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
AND WEST OF CAE. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING THAT TREND WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT STALLED
NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT SHOWERS. THE MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A REDUCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS HAD POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND THE WEDGE PATTERN
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING A WARM FRONT.
BELIEVE THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG H85 JET. THE MODEL INDICATE H85 WIND INCREASING TO
AROUND 50 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY 12Z. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN INDICATES LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH
SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET
OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED
SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR
THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN THE CSRA AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING DURING THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS THAT
HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS. SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CIGS EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD CAE/CUB AFTER 04Z OR SO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND COULD IMPACT TERMINALS DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME
WITH MVFR VSBYS. LESS CERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOWER CIGS
WILL PUSH AND FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE SREF AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THEM NORTH OF OGB/AGS/DNL BUT WILL INCLUDE
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND THE 10Z-15Z TIME FRAME.
EXPECT SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
205 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHED 50 OR MILDER ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND OWYHEE COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES...COOLER TEMPS /IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40/...LOWER SNOW LEVELS /AROUND 4500-5K FT MSL/...AND
ADVANCING CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAKENING
ZONE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SW OREGON. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AN AXIS FROM MCCALL THROUGH ONTARIO 8-10 PM
AND SW ID IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG
WITH HRRR INDICATES WEAKENING...BUT A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
ALONG I-84 SO HAVE KEPT A VERY LOW POP VALLEYS. QPF IN THE
MOUNTAIN IS ALSO STILL RATHER LOW WITH AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE MTNS
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR AN HOUR ON TWO ON THE
FRONT AND ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BUT CAPE
IS LOW AROUND 100 J/KG AND TIMING IS POOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY POST FRONTAL UPPER WINDS TURN W TO NW AND WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT ENOUGH FLOW AND MIXING FOR 15-25 MPH
WINDS /LOCALLY 30-40 MPH MUO-JER/ MONDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. A FEW MTN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG NW FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
ITS AXIS NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
EVENT IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AND WEAKENING TO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PASSING
CLOUD COVER. PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ARRIVE
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH IT FURTHER OUT IN TIME
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON A WELL ESTABLISHED CHANGE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH SCT-BKN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BRIEF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS THAT ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22/01Z
22/15Z MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MTN OBSCURATION LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 6500 FT NEAR ID/NV BORDER, AND NEAR 4500 FT NEAR KBKE AND
KMYL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 20-30 KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
12Z SOUNDING HAS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR FROM 900-580MB WITH THE
DRIEST LAYER 880-850MB. TRENDS FROM THE RAP AT THE 295K SFC
GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE VIRGA ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
THE AREA WITH ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND STILL WELL WEST
OF I-35. RAP TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FORCING WEAKENING DURING
THE MORNING WITH LITTLE IF ANY FORCING ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
MORE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN INSTEAD OF FLURRIES/SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW ALONG THE BORDERS OF THE DAKOTAS SOUTH
OF KBIS. A FRONT RAN EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
RADARS SHOW PLENTY OF RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. THESE RETURNS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND. THUS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EVAPORATING PRIOR TO REACHING THE SURFACE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA TODAY
AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THIS
WEAKENING TREND COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTS
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT...QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER WITH GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH WEAK ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN AREA WHERE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS. TYPICAL NORMAL MINOR BIASES OF DIURNAL
RANGES SUGGESTED WITH DAYS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY
HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL AND MINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
FAIR SKIES TENDING TO BE A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD IN COLD DRAINAGE
AREAS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ONCE AGAIN ARE GOOD WITH
AMERICAN SOLUTIONS TOO MOIST IN BL AS EVIDENCED BY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION ONGOING IN THE PLAINS. THIS CONFIRMS LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OR REMOVAL OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THIS
FLOW PATTERN. REVIEW OF RUN TO RUN OR INTER RUN CHANGES ARE MINOR
BECAUSE OF THIS FLOW PATTERN. HENCE A DEFAULT MIX OF 50/50 HI-RES
ECMWF/GFS REMAINS A GOOD STARTING REFERENCE POINT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN BREEZY NORTH WINDS AS STORM PASSES TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS EACH DAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
EACH DAY. MINS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES CAN`T BE RULED BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
AND DOWNWARD MOTION OR SUBSIDENCE WOULD RESULT IN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLDER WITH FAIR TO MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE UPPER MIDWEST. BLUSTERY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND MINS IN THE 15 TO
25 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY COLDER MINS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/21 AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS IOWA. AFT 18Z/21 A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. AFT 00Z/22 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POP AND SKY GRIDS PER THE
LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS AND ALSO HRRR. DID TWEAK THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE A QUICKLY DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING GENERALLY EAST THROUGH MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING
TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 PUSH THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING A TOUCH FOR THIS IN THE GRIDS. THE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CLOUD UP LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND GOOD MIXING/CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SLOW
ANY DROP OFF. DEW POINTS...LIKEWISE...ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WIND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SKIES THAT HAVE
BROKEN OUT OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS FROM THIS MORNING AND NOW A
CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY.
DEVELOPING OUT WEST...IS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE
AREA. MODELS AGREE HAVE PRECIP DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE EAST AS THE LOW
TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS KY AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF KY. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KY. AS WELL...SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME PWATS IN
THE 1.10 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE AND WHILE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...THE
MENTIONED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MEAN THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE ON TO THE EAST BEFORE ANY CONCERNS WOULD ARISE. DID
LEAVE IN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS
TO COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ENGAGE WITH THE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH SO SHOULD NOT SEE A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ANYWHERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE BLUEGRASS BY 10Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH REGIME MATERIALIZES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
CLEARING SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING...BEHIND THIS WEEKEND/S
WAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGS NORTHEAST WINDS JUST
ABOUT PARALLEL WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN ANY
LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES MAKE AN ABRUPT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE NEXT ROUND
OF UPPER ENERGY WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PULL ANY APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE ONLY JUST
RECENTLY PENETRATED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. NONETHELESS...LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MORE BONAFIDE
AMOUNTS WILL BE HINDERED BY TERRAIN-PARALLEL OR DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS.
A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE EXACT TRACK...EVOLUTION...AND PHASING OF THIS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING THROUGH
LOWER CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ALL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. MOST SENSIBLE SOLUTION CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE RAIN
CHANCES RAMPING UP TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEP
IT TOUGH TO PINPOINT MORE IN THE WAY OF DETAILS. CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM. NEAR NORMAL READINGS
EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD LIKELY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WERE PREVALENT AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A SMATTERING OF IFR DUE TO LIGHT FOG. LARGELY
MVFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN BEGIN
DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL AND IN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
AND A FEW WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
MAY OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A CORRIDOR FROM KSME TO KSYM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
630 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND THE AREA ARE ACTUALLY VFR IN MANY LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR BPT AND AEX. THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN A BRIEF STATE OF
STABILITY AS THE COOL FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND STALLED SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WE LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THIS NEUTRAL STATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POPPING
UP. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINS COME IN EARNEST TOMORROW AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. FRONTAL TIMING COULD BE
A LITTLE TRICKY BUT THE HRRR HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BPT AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LOUISIANA TERMINALS BETWEEN BY 24/03Z. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEPS THE LOW CLOUDS OUT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS STALLED COLD FRONT OVER INLAND SE TX THRU C LA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA ACROSS SE TX INTO LA. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO BASICALLY REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS SE TX AND LA TUE. WITH THIS WILL COME ALL ASPECTS OF
SVR WX POSSIBLE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
TORNADOS/DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE...AND THE SQUALL LINE ALONG
THE FROPA/OCCLUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE FORECASTED 992MB-988MB SFC
LOW OVER N LA. FOR THIS..SPC UPGRADED DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
WITH SE TX UNDER SLIGHT RISK...MOST OF C AND SC UNDER ENHANCED
RISK...AND EAST OF THE AREA MODERATE RISK.
ONCE THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW AND DEEP SFC LOW MOVES NE OF
THE REGION...STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WRAP AROUND EXPECTED...NOT
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES UNTIL WED. FOR THU-FRI SURFACE HIGH
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND NO PRECIP TO THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
SUN INTO NEXT MON.
DML
&&
.MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES
THRU 6 PM. SE TO S WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY TO
NEAR 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS QUICKLY DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE LIKELY AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VERY STRONG WEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DML
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND TIMING OF HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET MLLW.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 54 69 45 57 / 30 90 50 10
LCH 58 71 47 61 / 30 90 30 10
LFT 58 72 47 59 / 30 90 50 10
BPT 60 73 46 62 / 30 90 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ435-455.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1111 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY DRIVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1110 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES
OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED FOG FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS WELL AS RIVER VALLEYS
BASED ON HRRR AND NARRE-TL FORECASTS. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS
UPDATE.
655 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING NH AND MAINE THIS
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AREAS. HAVE UPDATED
THE TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH HRRR HOURLIES AND RERUN WEATHER
GRIDS. THIS TAKES -FZRA OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE CARRABASSETT
VALLEY AND IS IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 6 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC. RADAR INDICATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY GOING
OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE FOOTHILLS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON AS DOWN
SLOPE WINDS KICK IN. IN THE NORTH CLOUDS WILL HANG IN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT
SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FOR JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MON AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ON WED THE HIGH EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THEN PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BY THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG/WARM OVERRUNNING PATTERN TO
SET UP WELL TO ITS EAST ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL MEAN INITIALLY THE
PTYPE WILL START AS SNOW WED BUT THEN CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS ALL AREAS WED NIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY PICK UP SEVERAL
INCHES MORE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. ON THU THE WARM UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AND SOME
SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM TEMPS BUT AS USUAL THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS. THU NIGHT THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND ALLOWS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRI. ALL MODELS IN
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND CLOSE ON TIMING. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND MID CONNECTICUT
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR MON-TUE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WED-THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED GALES DOWN TO SCA`S ON THE OUTER WATERS
AND WILL BE CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH.
LONG TERM...LIGHT WINDS MON THROUGH TUE. INCREASING EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST FLOW WED INTO THU SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
952 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THIS MORNING...MAY TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE FOR THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS TO SHOW UP. 12Z UA DATA SHOWING AN
APPRECIABLE DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT NEEDS TO BE
ERODED AND WILL BE BY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
PRETTY MUCH A SHOWERY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS...HOWEVER IT IS ALSO SHOWING A FEW DEEPER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
POCKETS OF CELLULAR MAUL IN THE H85-H5 LAYER. SO...SOME INTERMITTENT
THUNDER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE./26/
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE STRATUS DECK WILL AGAIN LOWER ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT./15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT
SLOWER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ENCOMPASS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AIDING THIS MOISTENING
PROCESS...INITIALLY NOT REACHING THE SURFACE THROUGH THE LOW/MID DRY
LAYER. OVERNIGHT WE`VE SEEN QUITE A FEW MORE REPORTS OF RAIN REACHING
THE GROUND, WITH SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES TRACING ALONG THE US 82
CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT REMAINS SITUATED WELL NW OF THE AREA FROM OK
THROUGH SOUTHERN MO AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED RAMP UP IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL COME
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THE GREATEST RAIN/
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL REACH THE DELTA BY LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AROUND THE I-20 CORRIDOR, REMAINING STALLED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THERE WILL BE A BIT OF
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE INITIAL JET MAX/DISTURBANCE EXITING
EASTWARD AND A NEW JET MAX AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE ORGANIZING TO
THE WEST. /DL/
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MAIN IMPACT WEATHER OF
THE LONG TERM WILL COME TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S.
OFF TO OUR WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A LULL
IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY COULD BE LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
DEEPEN AS IT DOES. THERE REMAINS SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BUT OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE RATHER SMALL. AS
THIS SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS ARKANSAS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO
AND THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS REGION. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP BRING AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA. MODELS
ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH HOW FAR NORTH THESE 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS SOLUTIONS. MU CAPE IS FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 400-700 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 TO
7 C/KM. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA AND DEEPENS...WINDS
WILL RESPOND AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AROUND 35-
40 KTS OF LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND NEAR 55 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PRESENT. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TRACK UP THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...AND WITH COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT OUT A LIMITED SEVERE RISK FOR THIS
PERIOD IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS.
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE CWA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING(IF NOT SOONER). SOME MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH BROAD TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
COOLER WEATHER TO RESUME WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE
60S. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 72 60 61 52 / 54 88 88 43
MERIDIAN 73 61 65 53 / 30 84 87 62
VICKSBURG 74 56 59 52 / 69 89 86 36
HATTIESBURG 75 62 68 56 / 22 62 82 54
NATCHEZ 74 60 62 54 / 57 90 88 34
GREENVILLE 70 52 57 46 / 61 66 67 29
GREENWOOD 68 53 59 49 / 70 69 68 29
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Record breaking warmth across the region this afternoon, with a
pretty tight moisture gradient roughly running E-W along interstate
70. South of this line temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with dewpoints in the 50s. North of this boundary, temperatures
are warm, in the 60s to 70s, but dewpoints are in the 30s. So far as
of the writing of this discussion, KMCI reached 74 degrees, which
breaks the record of 70 degrees, set in 2011. Later today, along the
aforementioned boundary, there could be a few showers and
thunderstorms forming. The best chance for these showers will be
across southern and central Missouri, although there could be a few
isolated weak cells as far north as I-70. There will likely be no
surface based storms, as low level lapse rates are not very steep.
However, there will be steep enough lapse rates in the mid levels to
muster 500 to 1000 J/kg of MU Cape. 0 to 6 km shear indicates 30 to
40 kts of deep layer shear, which could combine with the elevated
instability to bring a strong storm or two. HRRR trends have
indicated a more southern and eastern slide in the area storms are
expected to form. Expect these storms to grow in coverage through
the evening and move off into eastern Missouri through the overnight
hours.
Thereafter, for the rest of the weekend and into next week, expect
dry conditions with cooler temperatures as a cooler air mass slides
into the area. Even with cooler temperatures, still anticipating
highs to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal late February highs
through the week. By mid week, there will likely be a strong winter
storm moving through the southern plains. Right now it looks like
this storm will glide south of here and go across Arkansas and
Tennessee. Should this storm slide a little north we could see it
impact portions of this forecast area, but even with some movement
north it will likely be too warm to get any snow out of it. For now
it appears there could be some light rain along its far northern
periphery mid week. Expect above normal temps and dry conditions to
persist through the late part of the week and into early next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Latest NAM guidance
still suggestive of MVFR visibilities early this morning but with a
lack of rainfall and weak wind flow...felt best to continue with no
mention for now. Otherwise...expect northerly winds through the
period (generally less than 10 kts) with FEW-SCT CU during the
daylight hrs.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1056 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 855 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue at this hour,
particularly to the south and east of where latest SPC
mesoanalysis are still showing MUCAPES over 500 J/kg and
effective shears of >35kts. There will still may be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms farther back west over central
Missouri ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Best chance
for any severe storms will be in the aforementioned areas where
there is the most instability and shear through the evening hours.
Still looks like rain chances will get pushed into the far
southeastern counties by morning as the shortwave pushes the
frontal boundary southeast through the area.
(Tonight)
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
(Rest of Forecast)
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the far
southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the
far southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
A surface low or wave near VIH along a front will move east-
southeastward late tonight dragging the front southeastward
through the St Louis metro area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue in the St Louis metro area until about
08Z Sunday. The low level cloudiness should advect out of COU
shortly after midnight, and out of the St Louis metro area by
early morning. The surface wind will become n-nely in the St Louis
metro area late tonight as it already has in UIN and COU north of
the front. Low level cloudiness will advect into UIN by late
Sunday afternoon and possibly into the rest of the taf sites
Sunday evening as a ridge of high pressure over the northern
Plains builds southeastward into the region. Northerly surface
winds will diminish Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers and storms should shift
e-se of STL by about 08Z Sunday with lingering low level
cloudiness. The low level cloudiness should advect out of STL
early Sunday morning. The surface wind will increase from a
n-nely direction late tonight after fropa. N-nwly surface winds
will continue Sunday, then diminish Sunday night as a surface
ridge builds southward into the area behind the front. Another
batch of low level clouds may advect into the area Sunday
evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
505 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GONE
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT, AS DEPICTED WITH HRRR ANALYSIS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY KEEPING A COOL BUT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH
THE WESTERN US BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH
OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS A
COUPLE OF IMPLICATIONS LOCALLY. FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SECONDLY, REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN US COURTESY THE HUDSON BAY LOW. WITH
EACH SURGE, THE COLDEST AIR TRIES TO EDGE WEST INTO MONTANA, BUT
THE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR WEST IT GETS. FOR NOW, THINKING
THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA COULD BRIEFLY GET GLANCED BY
SOME COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF LOW AND ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW, LEANING TOWARDS AN ECMWF/GEFS
SOLUTION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME. THIS SOLUTION LEADS TO AN INCREASE
IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON,
INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF/GEFS. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE TRICKY PART OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP TYPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT
ON THIS POINT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAIN VS SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS LOWER AT THIS TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BEYOND
THE WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. MARTIN
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0005Z.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH VARIABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE OVER MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH SKIES CLEARING THEREAFTER FOR WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS 0F 20 TO 30 KT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES BY 18Z. MPJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 25 46 24 45 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 23 44 21 43 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 23 43 23 44 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 15 37 13 38 / 10 0 0 0
WEY 7 29 10 30 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 16 36 17 40 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 24 46 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 22 43 21 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
300 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
THE FOG/STRATUS DEPARTED THE EASTERN ZONES BY NOON MST EARLIER TODAY.
THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WAS FROM NE MT JUST E OF KGGW...TO ND
JUST E OF KBHK AT 21Z. THE MET GUIDANCE AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWED THAT THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO KBHK TONIGHT SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KMLS SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN
PUSHING INTO WA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL REACH WESTERN MT BY 12Z MON AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE WEST BY 12Z. THE WAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING MON USHERING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS. STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT SHOWERS BETWEEN
KLVM AND KBIL. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
E OF KBIL. THE SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE NE BIGHORNS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TO THIS AREA. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S KNOTS RANGE ON MON SO EXPECT A BREEZY DAY BUT NO HIGH
WINDS. HARLOWTON SOUNDING SHOWED SOME 45 KT IN THE MIXING LAYER
EARLY ON MON SO HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON MON.
THE WAVE WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUE
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. TUE WILL
BE LESS WINDY THAN MON. A FLAT NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
TUE NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS. MODELS DROP A BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STALLED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
FLOW LOOKS QUITE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP...EVEN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO PRECIP POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE REGION.
INTRODUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MUCH LESS THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE FOOTHILLS
REGIONS...INCLUDING LIVINGSTON...AND BIG TIMBER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN EASTERN ZONES...INCLUDING
KBHK. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/050 029/049 028/047 028/049 031/056 031/053 031/048
11/N 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/B 22/W
LVM 029/044 024/042 023/046 027/050 031/054 032/053 033/047
22/W 11/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 01/N 33/W
HDN 027/052 026/050 025/048 024/049 027/055 027/054 027/048
02/W 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/B 22/W
MLS 027/050 026/047 026/045 023/043 026/051 025/048 026/044
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 11/N 10/B 12/W
4BQ 025/049 024/046 024/046 022/045 025/051 025/050 026/045
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 01/N 11/B 12/W
BHK 024/047 023/041 022/041 019/038 022/046 022/044 021/040
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/N 11/B
SHR 024/047 024/043 021/044 021/047 025/052 026/051 026/047
03/W 41/N 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 23/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
254 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
THE FOG/STRATUS DEPARTED THE EASTERN ZONES BY NOON MST EARLIER TODAY.
THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WAS FROM NE MT JUST E OF KGGW...TO ND
JUST E OF KBHK AT 21Z. THE MET GUIDANCE AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWED THAT THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO KBHK TONIGHT SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KMLS SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN
PUSHING INTO WA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL REACH WESTERN MT BY 12Z MON AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE WEST BY 12Z. THE WAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING MON USHERING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS. STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT SHOWERS BETWEEN
KLVM AND KBIL. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
E OF KBIL. THE SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE NE BIGHORNS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TO THIS AREA. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S KNOTS RANGE ON MON SO EXPECT A BREEZY DAY BUT NO HIGH
WINDS. HARLOWTON SOUNDING SHOWED SOME 45 KT IN THE MIXING LAYER
EARLY ON MON SO HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON MON.
THE WAVE WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUE
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. TUE WILL
BE LESS WINDY THAN MON. A FLAT NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
TUE NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS. MODELS DROP A BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STALLED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
FLOW LOOKS QUITE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP...EVEN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO PRECIP POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE REGION.
INTRODUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MUCH LESS THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE FOOTHILLS
REGIONS...INCLUDING LIVINGSTON...AND BIG TIMBER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN EASTERN ZONES...INCLUDING
KBHK. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/050 029/047 027/047 027/050 031/055 032/054 034/053
11/N 11/B 00/U 11/B 11/U 11/U 11/B
LVM 031/044 024/042 024/045 028/051 031/053 033/053 033/052
12/J 11/B 00/U 11/B 11/U 11/N 12/W
HDN 028/052 026/048 025/048 024/050 027/055 028/054 031/053
01/N 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/U 11/B
MLS 028/050 026/046 025/045 023/045 027/051 026/049 028/048
01/N 11/B 00/U 00/B 11/N 11/B 11/B
4BQ 026/050 026/044 024/046 022/046 025/052 026/052 030/050
01/N 11/B 00/U 00/B 01/N 11/B 11/B
BHK 024/047 023/039 022/042 019/040 022/045 022/044 025/044
01/N 10/B 01/U 00/B 11/U 11/N 01/B
SHR 025/047 025/041 021/044 020/048 025/052 027/052 030/051
02/W 31/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/U 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TO TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS ROLLING EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS. A NICE CURL WAS NOTED IN RADAR RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...TIED TO VORT CENTER SPINNING EAST. LATEST
HI-RES MODEL ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A STEADY PROGRESSION TO THIS
PRECIPITATION TO EAST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN ALL RAIN AS OF YET...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SUNRISE SHOW NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE BELOW
850 RIGHT AROUND 0C...SUGGESTING RAIN OR SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE SHORT DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SNOW.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A CHUNK OF ENERGY ROTATES SOUTH AROUND DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. A QUICK SHOT OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WHEN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTER OUR
AREA...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALONG 290K THETA SURFACE IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z TUESDAY...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA IN A
MINIMUM OF OVERALL QG FORCING...SHOWING MAXIMUM WELL TO THE SOUTH
IN OK/TX PANHANDLES WHERE MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS STRONG. THUS
WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA...AND MAINTAIN OUR 30
PERCENT OR LESS POPS. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BELOW 850MB ONLY COOLS TOWARD
SNOW SIDE OF THINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS WANING LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO LOSE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND CURRENT EXITING WAVE AND IS REINFORCED
BY MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WAVE/FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND
CURRENT IMPULSE...BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LATEST HRRR CLOUD
FORECAST SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SPILL SOUTH. THUS
HAVE HIGHS IN OUR NORTHEAST ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH MID
50S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD OFFSET LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO KEEP HIGHS MONDAY NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY.
THEN A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS
OFFSETTING COOL ADVECTION SOMEWHAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF EXCITEMENT IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR
LOWS. SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW NOTED FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
AND OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THAT
FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS PATTERN INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE 850 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY
TOO MUCH FROM THE 5 TO 10C BELOW RANGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH SURGES ABOVE AND BELOW THAT RANGE WILL OCCUR WITH PASSING
IMPULSES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW WITH MAIN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVES/FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
GENERALLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BECOMING
SOLIDLY MVFR THROUGH TIME. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME IFR AT KOMA
LATE IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TO TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS ROLLING EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS. A NICE CURL WAS NOTED IN RADAR RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...TIED TO VORT CENTER SPINNING EAST. LATEST
HI-RES MODEL ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A STEADY PROGRESSION TO THIS
PRECIPITATION TO EAST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN ALL RAIN AS OF YET...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SUNRISE SHOW NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE BELOW
850 RIGHT AROUND 0C...SUGGESTING RAIN OR SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE SHORT DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SNOW.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A CHUNK OF ENERGY ROTATES SOUTH AROUND DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. A QUICK SHOT OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WHEN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTER OUR
AREA...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALONG 290K THETA SURFACE IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z TUESDAY...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA IN A
MINIMUM OF OVERALL QG FORCING...SHOWING MAXIMUM WELL TO THE SOUTH
IN OK/TX PANHANDLES WHERE MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS STRONG. THUS
WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA...AND MAINTAIN OUR 30
PERCENT OR LESS POPS. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BELOW 850MB ONLY COOLS TOWARD
SNOW SIDE OF THINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS WANING LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO LOSE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND CURRENT EXITING WAVE AND IS REINFORCED
BY MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WAVE/FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND
CURRENT IMPULSE...BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LATEST HRRR CLOUD
FORECAST SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SPILL SOUTH. THUS
HAVE HIGHS IN OUR NORTHEAST ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH MID
50S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD OFFSET LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO KEEP HIGHS MONDAY NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY.
THEN A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS
OFFSETTING COOL ADVECTION SOMEWHAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF EXCITEMENT IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR
LOWS. SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW NOTED FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
AND OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THAT
FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS PATTERN INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE 850 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY
TOO MUCH FROM THE 5 TO 10C BELOW RANGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH SURGES ABOVE AND BELOW THAT RANGE WILL OCCUR WITH PASSING
IMPULSES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW WITH MAIN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVES/FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE LIFTING AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY RETURN AFTER 03Z
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TO TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS ROLLING EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS. A NICE CURL WAS NOTED IN RADAR RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...TIED TO VORT CENTER SPINNING EAST. LATEST
HI-RES MODEL ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A STEADY PROGRESSION TO THIS
PRECIPITATION TO EAST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN ALL RAIN AS OF YET...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SUNRISE SHOW NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE BELOW
850 RIGHT AROUND 0C...SUGGESTING RAIN OR SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE SHORT DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SNOW.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A CHUNK OF ENERGY ROTATES SOUTH AROUND DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. A QUICK SHOT OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WHEN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTER OUR
AREA...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALONG 290K THETA SURFACE IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z TUESDAY...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA IN A
MINIMUM OF OVERALL QG FORCING...SHOWING MAXIMUM WELL TO THE SOUTH
IN OK/TX PANHANDLES WHERE MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS STRONG. THUS
WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA...AND MAINTAIN OUR 30
PERCENT OR LESS POPS. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BELOW 850MB ONLY COOLS TOWARD
SNOW SIDE OF THINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS WANING LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO LOSE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND CURRENT EXITING WAVE AND IS REINFORCED
BY MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WAVE/FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND
CURRENT IMPULSE...BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LATEST HRRR CLOUD
FORECAST SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SPILL SOUTH. THUS
HAVE HIGHS IN OUR NORTHEAST ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH MID
50S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD OFFSET LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO KEEP HIGHS MONDAY NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY.
THEN A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS
OFFSETTING COOL ADVECTION SOMEWHAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF EXCITEMENT IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR
LOWS. SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW NOTED FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
AND OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THAT
FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS PATTERN INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE 850 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY
TOO MUCH FROM THE 5 TO 10C BELOW RANGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH SURGES ABOVE AND BELOW THAT RANGE WILL OCCUR WITH PASSING
IMPULSES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW WITH MAIN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVES/FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
GENERALLY WEAK STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO MOV ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT KOFK/KOMA PRIOR TO 12Z.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE CIGS LOWER AND MAY BE MVFR FOR A TIME WITH THE
-RA...BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT
CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOV THE TAF SITES ON SUN EVNG AND MAY ALLOW FOR A
LOWER CIG DECK TO MOV BACK INTO THE TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOWER AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY. THIS MORNINGS UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE HAD A PWAT OF 0.21 INCHES. MODELS DO
MOISTEN THE MID AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE SOME THIS EVENING...AND WITH
THE DECENT LIFT...HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AREA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN. RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN WITHIN THIS BAND AT
ONEILL THE SOUNDING IS ABOVE FREEZING UP THROUGH 850MB...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAWN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES BY SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WARMUP IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING THROUGH COLORADO INTO KANSAS. STILL KEPT
NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF FA MONDAY NIGHT AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING TO PSBL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BACK TO RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS PSBL TUESDAY.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WRN NEBRASKA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER AIR FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE COLDER AIR
COULD CAUSE AN ADJUSTMENT TO COLDER HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS WARMER AIR
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES. BRIEF WARMUPS BETWEEN PASSING COLD FRONTS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
FOR THE LBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 20000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL
LEAD TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AGL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...SKIES WILL CLEAR.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
935 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT THEN STRENGTHENS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WAVE PASSING ALONG MOUNTAIN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM TN TO UPPER OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATED AT 02Z...
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT THE LOWER CEILINGS BACK TO THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BECKLEY AND INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTY. HIGH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. AS A RESULT...THE "MAKING US HUNGRY"
RLX 88D DONUT IMAGE HAS FORMED BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z. THOUGH...THE
NEARLY FULL SNOW MOON OF FEBRUARY LIKELY STILL VISIBLE AT THIS
HOUR...OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...SAY ACROSS THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING ATHENS... PARKERSBURG AND CLARKSBURG.
01Z RAP HAS ELONGATED WEST TO EAST 500 MB VORT AXIS WITH SOUTHERN
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH FROM ERN TN TO NEAR BLF AROUND 09Z. IN
RESPONSE...HAVE THE LIKELY POP FOR MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE 06Z TO
14Z POPS TUESDAY REACHING NORTH TO NEAR CLINTWOOD TO GRUNDY TO
PINEVILLE...TO FAYETTEVILLE...RICHWOOD...ELKINS AND POINTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST. PEAK OF ACTION SHOULD BE 08Z TO 12Z...THEN PULLING ENE
12Z TO 15Z. COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE-OUT SOME SLEET NEAR SNOWSHOE.
THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD LEAVE THOSE LOWER CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY FOR THESE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE
AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT LEFT POPS DRY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES
WITH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
REGION TUESDAY EVENING. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT THIS
POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG LLJ WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES ON WEDNESDAY PROGGED TO
RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...WILL CREATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS IN
FAVORED DOWNSLOPING REGIONS...AND MAY TEMPORARILY INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THE START...BUT WILL
CHANGE WITH TIME AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS SOMEWHAT...AND ATMOSPHERE
IS ABLE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCES.
MAY NOT HAVE GONE QUITE WARM ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS MENTIONED...RATHER GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ. LOOKING LIKE WE COULD HIT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...IF
NOT AREA WIDE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RAIN...WILL POSE A RISK FOR
TREES TO COME DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE
HWO...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
EXPECTING FALLING TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE
GUSTY WINDS IN CAA FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
GENERALLY ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY...WITH BULK OF
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MOUNTAIN ZONES WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE BETTER TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE KEPT THE SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR THURSDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
SHOWING AMPLE LIFT/RH INTO PART OF THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO VARIOUS SPOKES OF ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF WITH SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT. SOME COATINGS
ARE ENVISIONED OVER THE LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION CODED UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS THE WIND POTENTIAL. A STOUT 50 KT LLJ WILL ROTATE
THRU AND WITH A FAVORABLE CROSS FLOW AMID A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THINKING GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY FRIDAY BUT STILL LOOKING QUITE A
BIT OF STRATOCU AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DAY AND NIGHT. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
TAKING HOLD. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT...BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND STARTS
STRENGTHENING BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
STRESSING A LARGE CONTRAST EXPECTED BETWEEN OUR EASTERN SLOPES VERSUS WESTERN
SLOPES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THOSE EASTERN SLOPES...HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING 00Z TO 06Z FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU NEAR BECKLEY ON NORTHEAST
ALONG CHEAT MOUNTAIN AND THE POCAHONTAS COUNTY AND EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY
EAST OF ELKINS.
WESTERN LOWLANDS...CEILINGS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
VSBY AOA 5 MILES.
HAVE LIGHT RAIN WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 03Z TO 06Z TUESDAY
AND THEN BRUSHING WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES 06Z TO 14Z TUESDAY. VSBY MOSTLY 3 TO
4 MILES IN MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME HIGHEST TERRAIN
WHERE THOSE HIGHEST RIDGES COULD BE OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY AND CEILING MAY GO LOWER AT BECKLEY DURING
IN THE LIGHT RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1229 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL TIMING OF
THIS PRECIPITATION IS CAPTURED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...AND POPS
HAD TO BE EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH RAIN STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CLEARING THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 1PM.
THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS LOOSENED
CONSIDERABLY...BUT FAVORING THE COOLER SIDE OF THE PREVIOUS
SPREAD...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
LARGE BREAK IN THE OVERCAST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. DESPITE
THESE CHALLENGES...THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO
BE ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A H5 S/W MOVING EWD THROUGH THE FAST H5 FLOW AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING
THE BULK OF THE PCPN QUICKLY EWD THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF MODELS
TRY AND LINGER PCPN INTO THE AFTN IN THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PREFER TO GO WITH THE QUICKER
SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE THE FA DRY BY 18Z.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN NRN KY. ALSO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND REBOUND IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE WARM START IN THE SE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT THERE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT. NEAR NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EXTREME NORTH
TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGENCE IN THEIR HANDLING OF H5
ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. GFS IS
THE QUICKEST IN SPREADING PCPN NRN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE SFC LOW AND THE PCPN FARTHER S. WENT A BLEND
AND BROUGHT LOW POPS UP INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS IS QUICKER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND PCPN...WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING THE SLOWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND THE ECMWF...TRY
TO LOWER CRITICAL THICKNESSES IN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY RAN A MODEL BLEND WHICH
KEPT THE SNOW CHANCE JUST TO THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW EJECTS NE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WED AND THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AND TRACKS NE INTO THE REGION. GFS 00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLN
WAS TAKING THIS LOW THRU IN AND EXTREME NW OHIO WED NIGHT BUT HAS
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN TAKES THE LOW THRU ILN/S FA. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN IS EVEN FURTHER EAST THAN ECMWF. WITH SUCH A
SPREAD WILL FOLLOW A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SE.
WILL HAVE RAIN IN THE SE AND A MIX ACRS ENTIRE FA BY MORNING.
WILL THEN RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
FORCING IS ENHANCED BY H8 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 45-50 KT LLJ.
DUE TO WAA WILL HAVE ENTIRE REGION CHANGE TO RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA
AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO SE CANADA. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH THURSDAY AFTN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY OFFERING COLD
BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A MINOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ALL THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. THIS WILL
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH NNE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
THICK STRATUS DECK (IFR TO LIFR) TO DEVELOP...BUT THIS IS NOT YET
CERTAIN TO OCCUR. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT ABOUT 4-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT FOG MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
NONETHELESS...REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THE EXACT NATURE OF THE
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
937 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL TIMING OF
THIS PRECIPITATION IS CAPTURED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...AND POPS
HAD TO BE EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH RAIN STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CLEARING THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 1PM.
THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS LOOSENED
CONSIDERABLY...BUT FAVORING THE COOLER SIDE OF THE PREVIOUS
SPREAD...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
LARGE BREAK IN THE OVERCAST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. DESPITE
THESE CHALLENGES...THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO
BE ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A H5 S/W MOVING EWD THROUGH THE FAST H5 FLOW AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING
THE BULK OF THE PCPN QUICKLY EWD THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF MODELS
TRY AND LINGER PCPN INTO THE AFTN IN THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PREFER TO GO WITH THE QUICKER
SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE THE FA DRY BY 18Z.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN NRN KY. ALSO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND REBOUND IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE WARM START IN THE SE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT THERE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT. NEAR NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EXTREME NORTH
TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGENCE IN THEIR HANDLING OF H5
ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. GFS IS
THE QUICKEST IN SPREADING PCPN NRN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE SFC LOW AND THE PCPN FARTHER S. WENT A BLEND
AND BROUGHT LOW POPS UP INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS IS QUICKER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND PCPN...WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING THE SLOWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND THE ECMWF...TRY
TO LOWER CRITICAL THICKNESSES IN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY RAN A MODEL BLEND WHICH
KEPT THE SNOW CHANCE JUST TO THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW EJECTS NE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WED AND THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AND TRACKS NE INTO THE REGION. GFS 00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLN
WAS TAKING THIS LOW THRU IN AND EXTREME NW OHIO WED NIGHT BUT HAS
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN TAKES THE LOW THRU ILN/S FA. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN IS EVEN FURTHER EAST THAN ECMWF. WITH SUCH A
SPREAD WILL FOLLOW A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SE.
WILL HAVE RAIN IN THE SE AND A MIX ACRS ENTIRE FA BY MORNING.
WILL THEN RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
FORCING IS ENHANCED BY H8 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 45-50 KT LLJ.
DUE TO WAA WILL HAVE ENTIRE REGION CHANGE TO RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA
AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO SE CANADA. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH THURSDAY AFTN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY OFFERING COLD
BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A MINOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING E AND AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW LINGERING BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY STILL AFFECT KCVG/KLUK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BUT SHOULD BE
VFR OUTSIDE OF A CORE PASSING OVER THE TERMINAL SITE WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED. ANY LOWER CIGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO BE VFR THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...A SHOT OF COLD AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CROSS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION AND LIKELY BRING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG AND COULD CONDENSE A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AOA 1KFT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
222 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WITH STRONG
SUPPORT ALOFT STREAKS QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COOLER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 UPDATE...HELD OFF TIMING OF THE RAINFALL ARRIVAL A COUPLE
HOURS BASED ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z. I ALSO EXPANDED THE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK AS WELL.
830 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY...AND LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOKS. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALSO ELECTED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING. WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEEDS EXPANDED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES...BUT FOR NOW...STUCK MAINLY TO
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS IN SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.
630 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS PER
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM TRYING TO PLACE MORE
FOCUS/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH IN OUR OHIO COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND...BUT APPEARS NAM MAY BE AN OUTLIER
AT THIS POINT. IF HEAVIER PRECIP DOES DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...FFG IS A BIT HIGHER THERE...SO A WATCH MAY
STILL NOT BE NECESSARY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST MODEL UPDATES
AND UPDATE THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE MASS FIELDS...AND NOT TOO BAD ON
THE QPF EITHER...IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...BEFORE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
BE A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND INSTABILITY IS MODEST...DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. GOOD UPPER JET
COUPLING...MODERATE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET...PW`S AOA 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...SOME TRAINING ALONG THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT...ALL POINT HEAVY RAINS FOR ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD. QPF AROUND
AN INCH OR MORE IN THIS TIME PERIOD...COMBINED WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES...PROMPTS AN ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. THE WATCH WILL GO FROM 10Z-21Z
SUNDAY. COORDINATED WITH WPC ON THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...PRECIP MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST AND DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR RAINS TO END OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASE IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW A STRONG COLD SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT
WITH A MODEST INCREASE DURING SUNDAY FOR MAXES...BEFORE FALLING
LATER IN THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS..A MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET. TUESDAY MAY HAVE A PRE FRONTAL WAVE BRING
PRECIP TO AREA...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS MODELS SEEM TO BE FLIP
FLOPPING ON THIS FEATURE. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETS THE
STAGE FOR A WELL ORGANIZED AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTROID TO
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO BROAD NATURE AND
ENHANCED DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE WATER ISSUES.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS 850 JET MISSES OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE
EAST...BUT THIS FEATURE MAY HELP INJECT SOME EXTRA MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY SPILL OVER INTO OUR EASTERN MTN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIPPED YET AGAIN FOR THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM...AT LEAST BOTH HAVE TRENDED IN THE SAME DIRECTION...AND ITS
TOWARDS A FAIRLY COMMON STORM TRACK FOR THE REGION. THIS LENDS SOME
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY INCONSISTENT STRETCH
FOR THE MODELS. UNFORTUNATELY...TIMING IS STILL OFF BY 6-12 HOURS
BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SYNOPTICALLY...HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WARM WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES/LOWLANDS...LEADING TO
MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES...AND WILL INSERT A MENTION FOR WATER CONCERNS INTO
THE HWO. THE EASTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PLACES LIKE MARLINTON
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...SO WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW/SLEET INSTEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN...BUT COULD BE A FINE LINE. ALSO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CLOUDY THE PICTURE A BIT IN REGARDS TO
PTYPE FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE
GRADUAL A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND 500MB RIPPLES SLIDING
THROUGH. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
CALM BEFORE THE STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z.
HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEADING TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH...SO BY THIS AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER HOWEVER IN
MOUNTAINS/EASTERN COUNTIES LONGER.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GENERALLY IN
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST AND ALSO STILL TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...SO LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/21/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M L L L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L L L L L
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>009-
013>020-026>032-036>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ083-085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO SUNDAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WITH STRONG
SUPPORT ALOFT STREAKS QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY. COOLER WITH A LULL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE RAIN AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 UPDATE...HELD OFF TIMING OF THE RAINFALL ARRIVAL A COUPLE
HOURS BASED ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z. I ALSO EXPANDED THE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK AS WELL.
830 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY...AND LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOKS. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALSO ELECTED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING. WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEEDS EXPANDED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES...BUT FOR NOW...STUCK MAINLY TO
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS IN SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.
630 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS PER
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM TRYING TO PLACE MORE
FOCUS/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH IN OUR OHIO COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND...BUT APPEARS NAM MAY BE AN OUTLIER
AT THIS POINT. IF HEAVIER PRECIP DOES DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...FFG IS A BIT HIGHER THERE...SO A WATCH MAY
STILL NOT BE NECESSARY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST MODEL UPDATES
AND UPDATE THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE MASS FIELDS...AND NOT TOO BAD ON
THE QPF EITHER...IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...BEFORE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
BE A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND INSTABILITY IS MODEST...DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. GOOD UPPER JET
COUPLING...MODERATE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET...PW`S AOA 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...SOME TRAINING ALONG THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT...ALL POINT HEAVY RAINS FOR ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD. QPF AROUND
AN INCH OR MORE IN THIS TIME PERIOD...COMBINED WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES...PROMPTS AN ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. THE WATCH WILL GO FROM 10Z-21Z
SUNDAY. COORDINATED WITH WPC ON THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...PRECIP MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST AND DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR RAINS TO END OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASE IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW A STRONG COLD SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT
WITH A MODEST INCREASE DURING SUNDAY FOR MAXES...BEFORE FALLING
LATER IN THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS..A MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE GONE BY 00Z...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
SO THE LINGERING LIGHTER RAINS DECREASE 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY IN THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A NORTH FLOW OF COLDER AIR CAUSING
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HAVE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WANING...BUT LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHERE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT
DAWN MONDAY OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN...COULD BE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
A LULL BETWEEN STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND A WAVE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...DID SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR
EASTERN SLOPES AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY...TRIED TO KEEP THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIPPED YET AGAIN FOR THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM...AT LEAST BOTH HAVE TRENDED IN THE SAME DIRECTION...AND ITS
TOWARDS A FAIRLY COMMON STORM TRACK FOR THE REGION. THIS LENDS SOME
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY INCONSISTENT STRETCH
FOR THE MODELS. UNFORTUNATELY...TIMING IS STILL OFF BY 6-12 HOURS
BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SYNOPTICALLY...HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WARM WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES/LOWLANDS...LEADING TO
MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES...AND WILL INSERT A MENTION FOR WATER CONCERNS INTO
THE HWO. THE EASTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PLACES LIKE MARLINTON
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...SO WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW/SLEET INSTEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN...BUT COULD BE A FINE LINE. ALSO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CLOUDY THE PICTURE A BIT IN REGARDS TO
PTYPE FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE
GRADUAL A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND 500MB RIPPLES SLIDING
THROUGH. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
CALM BEFORE THE STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z.
HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEADING TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH...SO BY THIS AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER HOWEVER IN
MOUNTAINS/EASTERN COUNTIES LONGER.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GENERALLY IN
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST AND ALSO STILL TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...SO LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/21/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>009-013>020-026>032-036>040-046-
047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ083-085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS TO GO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. JUST NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
MID SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...DRY SLOT MADE A NICE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA. KEEPING MENTIONS OF SHOWERS FOR A FEW HRS AFTER
SUNSET AS EASTWARD PROGRESS REMAINS SLOW.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHOVE EVENTUALLY NUDGE IT OFF TO THE EAST
AND END PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
IN THE SE AFTER THE WAVE MOVES EAST. THE CLEAR SLOT OVER THE
CENTRAL COS WILL CLOSE UP AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS THE CLOUDS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL VARY AS THE INITIAL HEATING GOES
AWAY BUT THE CHANGE IN SKY COVER MIGHT HELP TEMPS STAY STEADY OR
RISE VERY SLIGHTLY. WILL MAINTAIN A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE FOR NOW.
THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO UP NORTH BUT NOTHING SHOULD
ACCUMULATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT
INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES PASSING SOUTH OF PA WILL PRODUCE A BIT OF
LGT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR /MVFR/ REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE AT KBFD...WHERE A
RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PA IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN A MVFR STRATOCU DECK THRU THE
EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF CONTINUED UPSLOPING FLOW AND A
COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-14Z. WET GROUND FROM EARLIER
RAIN...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES...SUGGEST FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
PRECLUDE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATER MONDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS
A LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REDUCTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW.
WED...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN FZRA/RAIN.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SE HALF IN
RA/SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/HAGNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DRY SLOT OVERHEAD MAKING A NICE AFTN FOR THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER ARE MOVING EASTWARD BUT NOT SO FAST. HAVE
KEPT IN MENTIONS OF PRECIP FOR A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE A VERY SLIGHT WAVE SLOW UP THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHOVE IT OFF TO THE EAST
AND END PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE SE AFTER THE WAVE MOVES EAST. THE CLEAR SLOT OVER THE CENTRAL
COS WILL CLOSE UP AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS THE CLOUDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL VARY AS THE INITIAL HEATING GOES AWAY
BUT THE CHANGE IN SKY COVER MIGHT HELP TEMPS STAY STEADY OR RISE
VERY SLIGHTLY. WILL MAINTAIN A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE FOR NOW. THERE
COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO UP NORTH BUT NOTHING SHOULD ACCUMULATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT
INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES PASSING SOUTH OF PA WILL PRODUCE A BIT OF
LGT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR /MVFR/ REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE AT KBFD...WHERE A
RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PA IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN A MVFR STRATOCU DECK THRU THE
EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF CONTINUED UPSLOPING FLOW AND A
COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-14Z. WET GROUND FROM EARLIER
RAIN...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES...SUGGEST FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
PRECLUDE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATER MONDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS
A LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REDUCTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW.
WED...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN FZRA/RAIN.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SE HALF IN
RA/SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/HAGNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A VERY MILD SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK
INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE BEHIND THIS FRONT TODAY INTO MONDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TRANQUIL WEATHER ON MONDAY.
STORMY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PLAIN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
POTENT AND MOISTURE LADEN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS /COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS/ WERE HELPING TO MIX THE LOWEST 1 KFT OR SO
EARLY TODAY...CAUSING THE MILD TEMPS IN THE 40S TO HANG ON BY A
THREAD ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH PORTION OF THE SUSQ VALLEY HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND CAUSING TEMPS TO DIVE
INTO THE U20S AND LOWER 30S.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY...AS MODELS ARE MISSING THE
TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS...WEAK LLVL COLD ADVECTION...AND
TEMPS STARTING OUT AT QUITE CHILLY LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA.
A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF KUNV...TO KIPT AND
KFIG AT 10Z... AND THI S BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
LOWER OHIO AND MID MISS VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WVA AND CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF
STEADY PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR
SRN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PA TURNPIKE. LATEST SVRL RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF A KAOO TO KABE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS COLDER AIR EDGES SOUTH ACROSS PA TONIGHT...925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE WAVE
SCOOTS EAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND ON
COLDER GRASSY AREAS/ TONIGHT WILL BE WELL UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP ENDS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NWRN PENN...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER TH REST OF CENTRAL AND
SERN PENN. &&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY/MON NIGHT - NO TROUBLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AS IT
SLIDES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND CONTINUING INTO
THE MARITIMES. AND...MORE IMPORTANTLY...IT KEEPS ON TRUCKIN.
THUS...THE LATEST STORM OF THE CENTURY SEEMS TO BE GETTING WARMER
AND WARMER WITH TIME. LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUES NIGHT.
MOST/ALL OF TUES SEEMS DRY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE SOME DZ /OR AN OUTSIDE CHC OF FZDZ/ ON TUES AFTN AS DEEP ERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PILE CLOUDS UP OVER CENTRAL PA.
BUT...WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUES W/IN A FEW DEGS OF 40F. THIS COULD
BE TOO WARM IF THOSE CLOUDS DO THICKEN UP AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST.
MORE CERTAIN /AS CERTAIN AS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW/ IS THAT PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUES NIGHT. HAVE KEPT 60 POPS FOR SOME
OF THE AREA. BUT...DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER - IT BEING DAY4-5
AND ALL. WE HAVE SEEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE SWUNG TO AND FRO FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT THE VARIOUS SOLNS WILL CHANGE
MORE BEFORE ANYTHING FALLS FROM THE SKY. PRECIP COULD START OUT
AS --SN OR AT LEAST A LIGHT MIX LATE TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE
FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND A DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST -
BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. IT LOOKS WARMER ON THE WHOLE THAN
PREV SOLNS. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON
WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS AND LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW
NORMALS FOR LATE FEB.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY/MON NIGHT - NO TROUBLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AS IT
SLIDES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND CONTINUING INTO
THE MARITIMES. AND...MORE IMPORTANTLY...IT KEEPS ON TRUCKIN.
THUS...THE LATEST STORM OF THE CENTURY SEEMS TO BE GETTING WARMER
AND WARMER WITH TIME. LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUES NIGHT.
MOST/ALL OF TUES SEEMS DRY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE SOME DZ /OR AN OUTSIDE CHC OF FZDZ/ ON TUES AFTN AS DEEP ERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PILE CLOUDS UP OVER CENTRAL PA.
BUT...WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUES W/IN A FEW DEGS OF 40F. THIS COULD
BE TOO WARM IF THOSE CLOUDS DO THICKEN UP AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST.
MORE CERTAIN /AS CERTAIN AS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW/ IS THAT PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUES NIGHT. HAVE KEPT 60 POPS FOR SOME
OF THE AREA. BUT...DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER - IT BEING DAY4-5
AND ALL. WE HAVE SEEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE SWUNG TO AND FRO FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT THE VARIOUS SOLNS WILL CHANGE
MORE BEFORE ANYTHING FALLS FROM THE SKY. PRECIP COULD START OUT
AS --SN OR AT LEAST A LIGHT MIX LATE TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE
FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND A DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST -
BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. IT LOOKS WARMER ON THE WHOLE THAN
PREV SOLNS. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON
WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS AND LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW
NORMALS FOR LATE FEB.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER ALL OF PA AND LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTH
WESTERN CORNER OF PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT JST AND AOO THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUING AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE MASON
DIXON. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 18Z TO 21Z...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SHOULD BRING MVFR TO JST...AOO...MDT AND LNS. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR MDT AND LNS...AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 09Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR CIGS POSS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
TUE...REDUCTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW.
WED...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
553 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A VERY MILD SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK
INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE BEHIND THIS FRONT TODAY INTO MONDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TRANQUIL WEATHER ON MONDAY.
STORMY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PLAIN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
POTENT AND MOISTURE LADEN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS /COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS/ WERE HELPING TO MIX THE LOWEST 1 KFT OR SO
EARLY TODAY...CAUSING THE MILD TEMPS IN THE 40S TO HANG ON BY A
THREAD ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH PORTION OF THE SUSQ VALLEY HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND CAUSING TEMPS TO DIVE
INTO THE U20S AND LOWER 30S.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY...AS MODELS ARE MISSING THE
TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS...WEAK LLVL COLD ADVECTION...AND
TEMPS STARTING OUT AT QUITE CHILLY LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA.
A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF KUNV...TO KIPT AND
KFIG AT 10Z... AND THI S BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
LOWER OHIO AND MID MISS VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WVA AND CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF
STEADY PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR
SRN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PA TURNPIKE. LATEST SVRL RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF A KAOO TO KABE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS COLDER AIR EDGES SOUTH ACROSS PA TONIGHT...925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE WAVE
SCOOTS EAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND ON
COLDER GRASSY AREAS/ TONIGHT WILL BE WELL UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP ENDS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NWRN PENN...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER TH REST OF CENTRAL AND
SERN PENN. &&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY/MON NIGHT - NO TROUBLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AS IT
SLIDES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND CONTINUING INTO
THE MARITIMES. AND...MORE IMPORTANTLY...IT KEEPS ON TRUCKIN.
THUS...THE LATEST STORM OF THE CENTURY SEEMS TO BE GETTING WARMER
AND WARMER WITH TIME. LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUES NIGHT.
MOST/ALL OF TUES SEEMS DRY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE SOME DZ /OR AN OUTSIDE CHC OF FZDZ/ ON TUES AFTN AS DEEP ERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PILE CLOUDS UP OVER CENTRAL PA.
BUT...WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUES W/IN A FEW DEGS OF 40F. THIS COULD
BE TOO WARM IF THOSE CLOUDS DO THICKEN UP AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST.
MORE CERTAIN /AS CERTAIN AS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW/ IS THAT PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUES NIGHT. HAVE KEPT 60 POPS FOR SOME
OF THE AREA. BUT...DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER - IT BEING DAY4-5
AND ALL. WE HAVE SEEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE SWUNG TO AND FRO FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT THE VARIOUS SOLNS WILL CHANGE
MORE BEFORE ANYTHING FALLS FROM THE SKY. PRECIP COULD START OUT
AS --SN OR AT LEAST A LIGHT MIX LATE TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE
FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND A DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST -
BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. IT LOOKS WARMER ON THE WHOLE THAN
PREV SOLNS. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON
WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS AND LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW
NORMALS FOR LATE FEB.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REIGON OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT IS MAINLY DRY. THE MAIN MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF
PA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT JST AND BFD BY 15Z. A
SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE MASON DIXON AND PERHAPS AFFECT
MDT...LNS AND JST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR CIGS POSS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
TUE...REDUCTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW.
WED...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID WEEK COULD BRING BOTH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER TO THE MIDSOUTH.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CAMDEN TENNESSEE TO
WYNNE ARKANSAS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...STARTING TO
SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
THIS BAND BLOSSOMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR ABERDEEN TO
GREENVILLE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.
THERE ARE ALSO MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ARKLATEX
AREA 18Z TUESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS
THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. BEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUPELO
INCLUDING CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES. SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY
3 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUTTING OFF SO THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES GET AN
INCH AS THE MODELS LOOK RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SEVERE WEATHER OR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHRAS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40...WITH A FEW TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING AT KJBR...KMKL AND KMEM. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS
IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS LINGERING
AT KTUP. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW 8-10 KTS TO NE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
256 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR...CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAS BEEN LIMITED BUT MUCAPE IS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WITH IT FINALLY EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 09-10Z.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SO LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE RANGING FROM LOW 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
TOMORROW AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE RACES OFF TO THE EAST ABANDONING THE
FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IT MAY MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP INTO THE LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEATHER FEATURES IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NOW...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST TO
TRACK FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO TN BY WEDNESDAY. PRESENT SETUP
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
EVENT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR OUR TN MOUNTAINS...AS THE LOW
DRAWS WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
WELL AS THE FLOW BEING PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGELINES. ALSO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN SHOWER
DOWNDRAFTS WOULD BRING DOWN LOTS OF MOMENTUM FROM WINDS ALOFT.
AFTER THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE
POURING INTO THE AREA...SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWS PRECIP CHANGING TO
SNOW. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL AS A LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT...SO SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BEST
CHANCES NORTH. TURNING DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 62 49 59 / 50 30 80 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 59 47 60 / 50 10 70 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 59 46 60 / 50 10 60 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 57 43 56 / 50 10 60 60
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF PD. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD
12Z. CIGS WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY AS WELL. VSBYS WILL...FOR THE
MOST PART...HOLD IN THE 3SM-6SM RANGE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD...AFT 00Z.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RADAR AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF AIRPORTS TODAY...BUT ANY IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS
DIRECTLY APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL REMOVE VCSH MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING AT BNA/CSV. -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........XXI
LONG TERM..................07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
THE FIRST SET OF STRONG STORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT NOT NIL. SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...A LINE OF STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A BOWING LINE. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM...BETWEEN 5
AND 6 AM ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT AND AROUND NOON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4+
INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
AVIATION...
SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW FORMS OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. CIGS LOWER TO
IFR AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE TRANS PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SOME GS/GR
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
HAVE LEFT OUT GS/GR FROM THE TAFS AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z AT KDRT AND BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGS THE
SURFACE LOW BY A FEW HOURS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WRAP AROUND SCT-BKN
MVFR LAYER STRATUS AND ISOLD SHRA MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KAUS.
HAVE LEFT SHRA OUT AS PROBS ARE LOW WITH BEST CHANCES AT KAUS.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE MIXING UP TO 50 KT WINDS
ALOFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT NWLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 24 TO 34 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KTS OR SO MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. OCNL CROSSWIND ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AT KAUS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL
CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS
AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE
INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY
EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z
OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90.
ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT
NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS
LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL
FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 41 64 39 / 100 70 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 66 42 65 35 / 100 70 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 43 66 36 / 100 50 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 59 40 62 36 / 100 60 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 70 42 67 36 / 80 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 41 63 36 / 100 70 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 41 67 32 / 100 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 43 65 36 / 100 60 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 69 45 64 37 / 90 70 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 71 44 66 36 / 100 40 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 44 68 36 / 90 30 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
608 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.AVIATION...
SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW FORMS OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. CIGS LOWER TO
IFR AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE TRANS PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SOME GS/GR
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
HAVE LEFT OUT GS/GR FROM THE TAFS AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z AT KDRT AND BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGS THE
SURFACE LOW BY A FEW HOURS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WRAP AROUND SCT-BKN
MVFR LAYER STRATUS AND ISOLD SHRA MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KAUS.
HAVE LEFT SHRA OUT AS PROBS ARE LOW WITH BEST CHANCES AT KAUS.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE MIXING UP TO 50 KT WINDS
ALOFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT NWLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 24 TO 34 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KTS OR SO MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. OCNL CROSSWIND ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AT KAUS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL
CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS
AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE
INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY
EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z
OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90.
ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT
NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS
LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL
FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 41 64 39 / 100 70 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 66 42 65 35 / 100 70 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 43 66 36 / 100 50 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 59 40 62 36 / 100 60 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 70 42 67 36 / 80 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 41 63 36 / 100 70 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 41 67 32 / 100 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 43 65 36 / 100 60 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 69 45 64 37 / 90 70 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 71 44 66 36 / 100 40 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 44 68 36 / 90 30 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1138 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
BY EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH COLDER WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM EST SATURDAY...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
BASICALLY REMOVED FROM THE STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE JUST OFF TO
THE SOUTH. EVENING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE BELOW THIS
LEVEL WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS MORE FROM THE SW. HOWEVER APPEARS
THIS REMAINS TOO SHALLOW TO RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW CLOUD CANOPY NOW OVER THE FAR SW
SECTIONS SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NE UNDER THE INVERSION...AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING LIFT UNDER THE
UPSTREAM WAVE PERHAPS CAUSES A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS TO WORK INTO
THE NW AROUND DAWN PER LATEST HRRR MODEL. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT AS SPOTS WILL QUICKLY GO
FROM CLEAR TO LOW CANOPY ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE WHICH MAY BE
EVEN SLOWER. COULD EVEN SEE SOME FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
REGION AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES SO INCLUDED AS WELL. MADE
SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO LOW TEMPS DESPITE A LONGER PERIOD
OF SEEING CLEAR SKIES AS EXPECT DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO HOLD LOWS
UP IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AS WELL.
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST NEW
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CLIPPING THE FAR
NORTHWEST TIER OF COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THERE IS STRONG FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A
GOOD DOSE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. THE LATEST NOHRSC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN THIS LOCATION WHICH IS HOLDING A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF LIQUID. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOW IS A HYDRO CONCERN SO A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY. BUFKIT SHOWS STEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY AS WELL SO SOME THUNDER CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARMING ALOFT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MID/UPPER 50S TO THE WEST. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES START TO FALL AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST SATURDAY...
PASSING LOW WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BRING
SHOWERS TO AN END. A BRIEF UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE WEST. COLDER AIR LAGS TO OUR NORTH SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SFC FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST HEADING INTO
MONDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHEAST U.S. MODELS HINT AT KEEPING LOW LVL
MOISTURE SITUATED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH POTENTIAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE PIEDMONT. ATTM
LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE INTENSIFIES WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTH TX...WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...BUT
MORESO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. LOW LVL TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH BUT SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR POSSIBLY FZRA IN THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH AS THE
HIGH RETREATS TUESDAY AND PRECIP INCREASES THE WEDGE REMAINS...BUT
TEMPS WARM AT ALL LEVELS ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THE EASTERN CWA TO SEE BETTER THREAT OF RAIN TUESDAY AS SE
FLOW OVERRUNS COASTAL FRONT. MAIN SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER TX/LA. THE
12Z GFS IS SIMILAR AT THE SFC AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE ECMWF INTO
TUESDAY BUT FAVORS LESS PRECIP TUESDAY. ATTM...STILL LOOKS LIKE NO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT-TUESDAY IN THE EAST WITH
AROUND TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE WEST VIRGINIA MTNS.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
PIEDMONT...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS. WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING
TO OUR NORTH MONDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE
AREA...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL COULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH IF IT CLEARS OUT SOME. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 50S PIEDMONT TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS FALL WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...TO THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO RISE AT LEAST IN THE WEDGE TUESDAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE EAST AND INTO THE ALLEGHANYS TO GREENBRIER VALLEY. THE MILDEST
AREA WILL BE WEST OF A RICHLANDS TO CHILHOWIE LINE WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY WERE STILL
FAVORING MORE OF A RAIN EVENT TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARM 8H
AIR RIDES UP AND OVER IN SITU WEDGE. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS IT COULD BE JUST COULD ENOUGH
FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE ALLEGHANYS INTO SE WV AND NORTH OF
LYH. HOWEVER...THREAT OF SNOW WILL BE LEFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM....BUT LOOKS LIKE COLDER AIR WILL SWING RAIN BACK TO SNOW TO
SNOW SHOWERS HEADING INTO LATE WED NIGHT-THU...SO SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
RAIN EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING
OF RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEADLINED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECM AND
ENSEMBLES TAKING THIS SYSTEM OUT.
THEN LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LVL JET ROUNDS THE TROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING SOME WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO THE MTNS.
WE SHOULD BE COLDER AND DRIER TOWARD SATURDAY THOUGH GFS SLINGING
ANOTHER CLIPPER OUR SATURDAY. THIS IS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW GIVEN ECM
AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER.
AS FOR TEMPS WENT COOLER THAN MOS ON WEDNESDAY AS THINK WEDGE WILL
BE SHALLOW BUT ENHANCED BY RAINFALL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
HEAVIER RAINS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
WENT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE MTNS AS STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AS 8H TEMPS FALL FROM ZERO TO -6C.
TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE 30S TO 40S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST SATURDAY...
DECREASING CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...RETURN FLOW OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS DETERIORATION IN FLYING
CONDITIONS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN CURRENT DRY AIR AND IDEA THAT MODELS
HAVE BEEN TOO WET IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. STILL APPEARS THAT SITES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STAY VFR UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TREND TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW TO THE SOUTHWEST ARRIVES LATE. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE EXPECTING MOISTURE TO ARRIVE SOONER WITH A QUICK DOWNTURN IN
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG/DZ BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THUS CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE PICS BUT ONCE
IT ARRIVES WILL SEE A QUICK DETERIORATION TO SUB-VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL JET EAST ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AROUND KLWB
DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS AXIS SWINGING SOUTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BANDS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT WAY TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...AND DRIVES CIGS
INTO MVFR/IFR LEVELS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MVFR TO OCNL IFR VSBYS
IN THE RAIN/FOG.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
WELL TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CIGS
ALONG WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIKELY TO LINGER AS THE WEDGE DEVELOPS.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LOOKS TO
NUDGE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST WEST OF
THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED POSSIBLY BRINGING VERY POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...LOW CLOUDS/CIGS/VSBYS
AND HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WED NIGHT...PRECIP WILL
TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR INTO THURSDAY
MOUNTAINS...WHILE IMPROVING TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM MAKING FOR
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
VAZ019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
524 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY OF GREEN BAY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AROUND
THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
FEATURES...AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND FAR NE WI WILL
HOVER OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST.
OTHER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL EXIST OVER FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE
EVENING...BEFORE THIS TOO EXITS EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS FROM EITHER FEATURE...PERHAPS JUST A DUSTING. THEN AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT...A RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM LEAVES ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. IF SKIES DO CLEAR FOR A PERIOD...TEMPS HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE MORNING AND COULD SEE THE PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND N-C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY THE START OF THE EVENING. MILD FEBRUARY
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND HOW SIGNIFICANT THE PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ONLY MINOR PCPN CHANCES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI WITH A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A GLANCING BLOW IN EAST CENTRAL WI FROM THE
LARGE OHIO VALLEY STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN VILAS COUNTY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CIPS ANALOGS
SHOWED A 70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW OVER VILAS
COUNTY...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT STALL IT OVER ILLINOIS AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RIDES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PREVENTS A BIG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION...AND ALSO PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOWSTORM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE PATTERN
HOLDS...THERE WOULD PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH THE RRQ OF A STRONG
UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SUSPECT IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WE GET A DECENT HANDLE ON THE FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN. MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
12Z GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH A
SHEARED BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...TO TRANSLATE SOUTH
OF S WI TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. ON THE SFC...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE ON-SHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS WILL CREATE A CORRIDOR
OF SFC CONVERGENCE THAT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
CORRIDOR OF SFC CONVERGENCE...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DUE TO STRONGER ISENTROPIC OMEGA ALONG WITH A DEEPER
MOIST PROFILE INDICATED IN RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SLIGHT CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE
CORRIDOR OF THIS LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT LOOKS TO PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE REACHING THE
WAUKESHA...MILWAUKEE...AND RACINE AREAS. ALTOGETHER...SOME PLACES
COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO STAY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A LOBE OF HIGH LOW-
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH S WI. HIGHS MONDAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS 925 MB WINDS LOOK TO VEER
FROM THE SOUTH...ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A WEST TO EAST SFC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRN WI FOR MON NT AND TUE WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PARTLY TO MO
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FOR TUE NT INTO WED BUT
SHEAR OUT AS STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO OHIO. WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LGT SNOW IN
THE FAR NW CWA TUE NT BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PTLY TO MO CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING.
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS THE MODELS ON AVERAGE HAVE BEEN TRENDING
WEST WITH THE LARGE CYCLONE...SO WILL NOW GO WITH 40-50 POPS WED
AFT AND NIGHT FOR LGT SNOW IN FAR ERN WI VIA MIDDLE LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND PVA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
WILL AFFECT ERN WI AS WELL WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER LAKE MI
AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER LAND. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THU
AM OVER FAR ERN WI. BRISK NWLY WILL CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN WI ON FRI BUT ANOTHER
STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES OR SRN CANADA
IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FROM
CANADA. THIS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE MSN TAF SITE...THIS EVENING. A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
CHANCES OF -SN. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY IN OUR WEST AND AWAY FROM
OUR EASTERN TAF SITES AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THOUGHT
ABOUT INTRODUCING SOME LIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE -SN
CHANCES...BUT CONSIDERING THE SMALL CHANCES...DECIDED TO KEEP VSBYS
P6SM FOR THE MSN TAF SITE. MOREOVER...INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE MSN TAF
SITE TO ACCOMMODATE THE CHANCES OF -SN IN OUR WEST.
BKN TO OVC SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS A LOBE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH S WI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HELP FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW IS REACHING
AREAS FROM VILAS COUNTY TO IRON MOUNTAIN. COMPLICATING MATTERS
FURTHER IS A SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTATED ALMOST NORTH-SOUTH OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE FROM WAUPACA TO JUST NORTH OF GREEN BAY.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT SNOW TRENDS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
TONIGHT...THE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH HANGING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO HOLD UP THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WHILE GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP AROUND IT. WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. BEST CHANCES
RESIDE IN A CORRIDOR FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT THIS AREA
COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY SINCE THE TROUGH IS SUCH A SMALL SCALE FEATURE.
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW COULD ALSO IMPACT EASTERN WI THAT COULD LEAD
TO A DUSTING. INCREASED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...PERHAPS A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAKING SNOWFALL
CHANCES THE HIGHEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH TWO OR THREE TENTHS IN THE AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROLONG SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES A
LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING. BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER OR NOT THE POWERFUL OHIO VALLEY
STORM WILL CLIP EAST CENTRAL WI ON WED/WED NGT...POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE WED-THU NGT AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MERGING WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD BRING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO
NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND CLIPS EAST
CENTRAL WI WITH THE NW PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE ON WED
AND WED NGT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...AND WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE LAKESHORE
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM LATE WED
THROUGH THURSDAY NGT. A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER NC WI ON THU/THU NGT...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN VILAS COUNTY.
GFS AND ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF H8 TEMPS AROUND -30 C
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MODEL BLEND TEMPS BY
2-3 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE MODELS SHOW CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN ON LAKE MICHIGAN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE
TO A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND DIFFICULT TO TIME IN THE FORECAST. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI...AND ALSO IN A CORRIDOR
FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVER EASTERN WI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
BE UNDER AN INCH...IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE PERSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1105 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLED OVER
NORTHERN WI...IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE STATE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD MISS S WI.
CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LAKE-ENHANCED FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN
MILWAUKEE COUNTY. THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE
TO NORTHEASTERLY ON-SHORE FLOW. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE IN THE WESTERN ONE-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL DUE
TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CORRIDOR OF LIFT LOCATED
OVER THE WEST...INDICATED FROM BUFKIT RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS A CHANCE OF -SN DEVELOPS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MSN
TAF SITE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO THIS
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT UNTIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES DUE TO THE CORRIDOR
OF -SN STAYING WEST. HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS
CHANCE OF -SN SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
ONLY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER FAR SE SOUTH DAKOTA
/NE NEBRASKA/NW IOWA WITH BETTER OMEGA AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED SHORT WAVE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG TIGHT MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
COLD ADVECTION PUSHES DOWN INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY. EVEN LIGHTER
RETURNS OF SPOTTY 10 MILE SNOW FARTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON REGIONAL RADAR AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING.
SOUNDINGS DRY ABOVE 2500 TO 3500 FT THOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BEARING LAYER THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM SOME WEAK 850-700 MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
LIMIT COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH EXPECT MAINLY SPOTTY NON-MEASURABLE PCPN
TODAY AT MOST. EXPECT MID-DAY HIGHS WITH MODELS INDICATING
ACCELERATING 925-850 MB COLD ADVECTION BEHIND PASSING WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
FORCING WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE PREVENTING FULL SATURATION OF DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. CLOUDS HELP HOLD LOWS IN THE MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE SURFACE/850 FLOW IS WEAK WITH SOME SUBTLE WAA NOTED. OVERALL A
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES. HOWEVER THE WEAK WAA AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME VRY LGT SN OR FLURRIES IN PARTS OF
SRN WI. OVERALL THE MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS DISJOINTED ON THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH DEPTH LACKING. HOWEVER CANNOT IGNORE THE CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF VRY LIGHT QPF ACRS THE AREA SO
HAVE EXPANDED THE SMALL POPS A BIT.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
APPCH WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. 925 TEMPS REBOUND BACK TOWARDS
ZERO CELSIUS SO THE MILDER MOS TEMPS LOOK OVERALL PRETTY
REASONABLE ESP WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LLVL RH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO
MEDIUM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RIDING THROUGH WI
WHILE STRONGER WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT PCPN WITH THE NRN STREAM WAVE WHILE SFC/850
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX/UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ERN WI BEING ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WITH EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOWING THE PCPN SHIELD PSBLY REACHING AS FAR WEST AS
EXTREME ERN WI. SO WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR SOME LGT SN OR SHSN TO
ACCOUNT FOR BOTH THE SCENARIO OF NRN STREAM ENERGY AND ALSO THE
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST BUT ANY NUDGE WEST IN THE
TRACK...ESP THE CURRENTLY FARTHEST WEST LOOKING TRACK OF THE
GFS...WOULD NECESSITATE HIGHER POPS/QPF/SNOW AMNTS. GRADIENT
LIKELY TO TIGHTEN UP WITH GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS RAMPING
UP THE CAA REGIME WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST WITH INFLUENCE OF THE BROADER
MID LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST. DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN
STILL NOT IN SYNC WITH SOME WEAK WAVES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS TOWARDS SOME MODIFICATION IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD
POOL WITH SURFACE/850 FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY. WILL GO WITH THE
DRY LOOK PER QUIET SUPERBLEND POPS.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE GFS CARVES OUT A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA. HUGE DISPARITY WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN WITH THE GFS
DRIVING IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -25C AND THE
ECMWF SHOWING - 3C. SFC LOW POSITION AND THICKNESS PACKING FROM
THE GEM SHOWS SOME NOD TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE SUPERBLEND TEMP/POP GUID AS IS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK ERODED WITH ONLY HI-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE A THICKENING OF MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS A WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE MVFR CLOUDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND MOVE THEM FROM NE TO SW
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES PUSHING THE MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PCPN WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR
THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IT WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE FRONT VERY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING...ONLY SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH DUE TO A WSW UPPER FLOW.
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
AND WEST OF CAE. LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING THAT TREND WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT STALLED
NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT SHOWERS. THE MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS MAY
LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A REDUCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS HAD POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND THE WEDGE PATTERN
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING A WARM FRONT.
BELIEVE THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG H85 JET. THE MODEL INDICATE H85 WIND INCREASING TO
AROUND 50 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY 12Z. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN INDICATES LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH
SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET
OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED
SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR
THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN THE CSRA AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING DURING THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM CLT THROUGH CENTRAL GA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS AROUND AGS/DNL. EXPECT THE PERIOD TO BE DOMINATED BY
WEDGE CONDITIONS CAE/CUB NORTHWARD AND WARM MOIST AIRMASS
ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS AT CAE/CUB. LATE IN THE PERIOD
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF AND BEGINS TRACKING TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A FALLING
CLOUD DECK AND WORRISOME FALL IN VISIBILITY. LFT/ARA TAF SITES ARE
REPORTING 1/4 SM VISIBILITY AND VV002 FEET. DO NOT SEE ANY
IMPROVEMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE CONDITIONS WERE MUCH BETTER...THE
CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO FALL. EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP MOST AREAS
AS WARM AIR RETURNS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH.
ITS DEFINITELY AN UGLY PICTURE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STORMY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A VIGOROUS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM TEXAS AND RUMBLE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A NE-SW ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OPELOUSAS AREA. HAVE BEGUN TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AREA-WIDE AND ACCORDINGLY INTRODUCED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE FORECAST. ACADIANA WILL BE A PRIME LOCATION FOR
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. WILL BE MONITORING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A RATHER QUIET NIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A
FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE INCOMING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY HEADING OUR WAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND THE AREA ARE ACTUALLY VFR IN MANY LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR BPT AND AEX. THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN A BRIEF STATE OF
STABILITY AS THE COOL FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND STALLED SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WE LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THIS NEUTRAL STATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POPPING
UP. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINS COME IN EARNEST TOMORROW AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. FRONTAL TIMING COULD BE
A LITTLE TRICKY BUT THE HRRR HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BPT AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LOUISIANA TERMINALS BETWEEN BY 24/03Z. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEPS THE LOW CLOUDS OUT.
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS STALLED COLD FRONT OVER INLAND SE TX THRU C LA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA ACROSS SE TX INTO LA. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO BASICALLY REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS SE TX AND LA TUE. WITH THIS WILL COME ALL ASPECTS OF
SVR WX POSSIBLE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
TORNADOS/DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE...AND THE SQUALL LINE ALONG
THE FROPA/OCCLUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE FORECASTED 992MB-988MB SFC
LOW OVER N LA. FOR THIS..SPC UPGRADED DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
WITH SE TX UNDER SLIGHT RISK...MOST OF C AND SC UNDER ENHANCED
RISK...AND EAST OF THE AREA MODERATE RISK.
ONCE THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW AND DEEP SFC LOW MOVES NE OF
THE REGION...STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WRAP AROUND EXPECTED...NOT
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES UNTIL WED. FOR THU-FRI SURFACE HIGH
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND NO PRECIP TO THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
SUN INTO NEXT MON.
DML
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES
THRU 6 PM. SE TO S WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY TO
NEAR 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS QUICKLY DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE LIKELY AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VERY STRONG WEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DML
COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND TIMING OF HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET MLLW.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 54 69 45 57 / 30 90 50 10
LCH 58 71 47 61 / 30 90 30 10
LFT 58 72 47 59 / 30 90 50 10
BPT 60 73 46 62 / 30 90 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1023 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A NE-SW ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES THEN
FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OPELOUSAS AREA. HAVE BEGUN TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AREA-WIDE AND ACCORDINGLY INTRODUCED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE FORECAST. ACADIANA WILL BE A PRIME LOCATION FOR
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. WILL BE MONITORING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A RATHER QUIET NIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A
FEW SHOWERS ABOUT. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE INCOMING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY ACTIVE TUESDAY HEADING OUR WAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND THE AREA ARE ACTUALLY VFR IN MANY LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR BPT AND AEX. THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN A BRIEF STATE OF
STABILITY AS THE COOL FRONT HAS WEAKENED AND STALLED SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WE LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THIS NEUTRAL STATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POPPING
UP. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAINS COME IN EARNEST TOMORROW AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. FRONTAL TIMING COULD BE
A LITTLE TRICKY BUT THE HRRR HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BPT AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LOUISIANA TERMINALS BETWEEN BY 24/03Z. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEPS THE LOW CLOUDS OUT.
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS STALLED COLD FRONT OVER INLAND SE TX THRU C LA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA ACROSS SE TX INTO LA. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO BASICALLY REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TX OVERNIGHT AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS SE TX AND LA TUE. WITH THIS WILL COME ALL ASPECTS OF
SVR WX POSSIBLE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
TORNADOS/DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE...AND THE SQUALL LINE ALONG
THE FROPA/OCCLUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE FORECASTED 992MB-988MB SFC
LOW OVER N LA. FOR THIS..SPC UPGRADED DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
WITH SE TX UNDER SLIGHT RISK...MOST OF C AND SC UNDER ENHANCED
RISK...AND EAST OF THE AREA MODERATE RISK.
ONCE THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW AND DEEP SFC LOW MOVES NE OF
THE REGION...STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WRAP AROUND EXPECTED...NOT
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES UNTIL WED. FOR THU-FRI SURFACE HIGH
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND NO PRECIP TO THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
SUN INTO NEXT MON.
DML
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES
THRU 6 PM. SE TO S WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY TO
NEAR 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS QUICKLY DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE LIKELY AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VERY STRONG WEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DML
COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND TIMING OF HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET MLLW.
DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 54 69 45 57 / 30 90 50 10
LCH 58 71 47 61 / 30 90 30 10
LFT 58 72 47 59 / 30 90 50 10
BPT 60 73 46 62 / 30 90 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1203 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WRN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI
SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM NE MN INTO NW WI WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING
INTO SRN MANITOBA.
TONIGHT...AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SLIDES TO THE EAST...MAINLY
JUST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS OF MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLOW.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK TO
MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING...A HALF INCH OR
LESS. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY SOUTHWESTER THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME A 500MB SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA INTO QUEBEC. THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING OVER
THE WEST HALF AND THEN OVER THE EAST HALF OVERNIGHT. THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERALL WITH MODELS ONLY PAINTING OUT AROUND 0.06 INCHES OF LIQUID
QPF ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1 WOULD GIVE
MOST PLACES A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH TO AT MOST AN INCH. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH ALONG
WITH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT AROUND -10C. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO CREATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTH WINDS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH IT. COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS. THE EAST HALF...THE LES
POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF MOISTURE
WRAPS BACK INTO THE EAST THEN CHANCE MAY BE INCREASED OVER THAT
AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OVER
MAINLY FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH IS LESS FAVORED FOR
MODERATE OR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT ON NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN
AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS
ARE PROGGED TO BECOME WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SLIDE FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY FRIDAY EVENING TO WESTERN
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING
TIME PERIOD. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE -20C TO -25C RANGE. THIS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT
LOCATIONS FOR THE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS
MODELS TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUES TO LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH CAA WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AGAIN...AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE MAY CAUSE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.P. BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS HAVE
NOT HAD A GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN OR FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUE MORNING AT ALL SITES. KIWD WILL
GO TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND STAY THERE FOR MOST OF TUE WITH LIGHT SNOW
MOVING IN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD GO BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR AT KIWD TUE
EVENING. WILL GO MVFR TUE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND THEN GO BRIEFLY TO
IFR AT KCMX IN LIGHT SHOW TUE EVENING. AT KSAW...WILL GO TO MVFR TUE
MORNING AND THEN COULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD AT
3000 FEET TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 25KT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL
A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NW GALES TO 40
KNOTS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A FEW
WEAK BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY BUT THESE HAVE MOSTLY
DIED OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE OROGRAPHY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE UPDATED PRIMARILY TO
LOWER POPS AND SKY COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE ALSO MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS.
HAVE ALSO HAD TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. MPJ
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES
WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SOME
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS, BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE KHLN AND KBZN
TERMINALS. AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
CANADIAN COLD FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
22Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE AND BRING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 8000 TO 10000 FT MSL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 505 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GONE
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT, AS DEPICTED WITH HRRR ANALYSIS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY KEEPING A COOL BUT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH
THE WESTERN US BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH
OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS A
COUPLE OF IMPLICATIONS LOCALLY. FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SECONDLY, REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN US COURTESY THE HUDSON BAY LOW. WITH
EACH SURGE, THE COLDEST AIR TRIES TO EDGE WEST INTO MONTANA, BUT
THE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR WEST IT GETS. FOR NOW, THINKING
THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA COULD BRIEFLY GET GLANCED BY
SOME COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF LOW AND ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW, LEANING TOWARDS AN ECMWF/GEFS
SOLUTION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME. THIS SOLUTION LEADS TO AN INCREASE
IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON,
INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF/GEFS. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE TRICKY PART OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP TYPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT
ON THIS POINT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAIN VS SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS LOWER AT THIS TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BEYOND
THE WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. MARTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 18 46 24 45 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 21 44 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 23 43 23 44 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 15 37 13 38 / 10 0 0 0
WEY 7 29 10 30 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 16 36 17 40 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 17 46 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 17 43 21 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
938 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. A FEW WEAK BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY BUT
THESE HAVE MOSTLY DIED OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE KEPT A MENTION FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE OROGRAPHY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
UPDATED PRIMARILY TO LOWER POPS AND SKY COVER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ALSO HAD TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. MPJ
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0005Z.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH VARIABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE OVER MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH SKIES CLEARING THEREAFTER FOR WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS 0F 20 TO 30 KT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES BY 18Z. MPJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 505 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GONE
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT, AS DEPICTED WITH HRRR ANALYSIS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY KEEPING A COOL BUT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH
THE WESTERN US BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH
OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS A
COUPLE OF IMPLICATIONS LOCALLY. FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SECONDLY, REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN US COURTESY THE HUDSON BAY LOW. WITH
EACH SURGE, THE COLDEST AIR TRIES TO EDGE WEST INTO MONTANA, BUT
THE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR WEST IT GETS. FOR NOW, THINKING
THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA COULD BRIEFLY GET GLANCED BY
SOME COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF LOW AND ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW, LEANING TOWARDS AN ECMWF/GEFS
SOLUTION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME. THIS SOLUTION LEADS TO AN INCREASE
IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON,
INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF/GEFS. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE TRICKY PART OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP TYPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT
ON THIS POINT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAIN VS SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS LOWER AT THIS TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BEYOND
THE WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. MARTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 18 46 24 45 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 21 44 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 23 43 23 44 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 15 37 13 38 / 10 0 0 0
WEY 7 29 10 30 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 16 36 17 40 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 17 46 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 17 43 21 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
103 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE LATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS THICKENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF CENTRAL PA. LLVL WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST OF
NRN VA WITH OVC030-040 INCREASING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXPECT THIS TO CREEP NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LEADING
TO PATCHY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING IN SPOTS AS VERY LIGHT
AND PATCHY PRECIP TRIES TO DEVELOP. AIR MASS IS INITIALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT -DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FZDZ
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 12Z...BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SO RAPIDLY
AT PRESENT AND TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING (KTHV IS
CURRENTLY THE EXCEPTION AT 29F AS CLOUDS ROLL IN) NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE GROUND TEMPS ARE
LIKELY WARM DUE TO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF SUN. NRN COS WILL EASILY
GET BELOW FZG AGAIN WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE MOST
PART. SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ON THE NY BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY
HOLD SOME FZDZ...BUT ANY SLIGHT WARMING IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS
SHOULD DISPENSE WITH THAT THREAT - FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. THE WEAK
FORCING AND ISOTHERMAL PROFILE NEAR TO JUST BELOW FZG COULD MEAN
ANYTHING FROM DZ TO SN COULD FALL OUT OF THE SHALLOW CLOUDS. IN
ANY CASE...IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIP.
A DECENTLY FORMED BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE NC COAST
WILL LIFT NWRD ALONG THE COAST ON TUES. IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON TUES. THE CLOUDS
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA MAY STILL HOLD SOME DZ...BUT A VERY LOW
POP IS ALL THAT IS NECESSARY FOR THE DAYTIME AWAY FROM THE LOWER
SUSQ. THE WAVE SEEMS TO TAKE ANY SLIGHTLY-SERIOUS RAIN OFF TO THE
EAST IN MID-AFTN. THEN WE WILL SIT IN THE LULL BETWEEN THE FIRST
LOW AND THE BEST FORCING OF THE LARGE STORM HEADED NORTH FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN STORM
WILL ADVANCE IN FROM THE SW TOWARD SUNRISE ON WED. BUT BEFORE IT
GETS INTO PA...THE TEMPS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW FZG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A GREATER THREAT OF FZRA/DZ EXISTS
ON TUES NIGHT THAN MON NIGHT...AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY
ADVYS FOR THAT TIME FRAME...AND THE POSS OF FZDZ LATE TONIGHT
CERTAINLY PRECLUDES ANY ADVY TALK FOR TUES NIGHT. WILL NUDGE POPS
INTO THE HIGH-CHC CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUES NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUES OVER TEXAS
AS DIGGING TROUGH INITIATES A SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW
WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ACROSS TENNESSEE...REACHING W PA AS A 985MB LOW WED
EVE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 530DAM H5 CLOSED UPPER LOW...BEFORE
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY.
NO BIG SURPRISES IN THE 12Z MODELS...KEEPING THE FORECAST
BASICALLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH AGAIN KEEPING
WITH A TREND OF JUST A TOUCH WARMER AGAIN WITH LATEST RUN. AFTER
A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP TUE NIGHT /AND POSS WED
MORNING OVER THE NORTH/...WARMER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE. HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE MORNING WILL
BE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WED AFT AND EVE WHEN THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVIEST...COINCIDING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. APPEARS THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN PRECIP OVER THE EAST DURING THAT TIME
/THOUGH A BIT OF THUNDER IS DEF POSSIBLE/...SO SHAVED A BIT OFF OF
THE WPC QPF NUMBERS RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE STORM TOTAL QPFS
OF AROUND 1.00-1.50.
SIG PRECIP WILL CUT OFF UPON ARRIVAL OF PRETTY DECENT DRY SLOT BY
THU FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST...LIGHT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE WEST AND JUST TAPER OFF AS RAIN OVER
THE SE WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.
ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW...NW FLOW LINES UP FOR A 12-18HR PERIOD
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A POTENTIAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMS IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT LOCALES.
COLD /BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD/ AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FRI-SAT AMID NW
FLOW. A BLOB OF ARCTIC AIR GETS DRAGGED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GLAKES BY SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
FAST FLOW...NUDGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD PA. BRUNT OF COLDER AIR
REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT THIS REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDNESS WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
COULD BRING A LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL SPREAD
LOWERING CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
TUESDAY. LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS KJST STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MVFR CIGS REDUCTIONS JUST BEFORE DAWN...WITH LITTLE CHC
ELSEWHERE.
WEAK LOW PRES PASSING EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL LIKELY GRAZE SE
PA WITH A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF TUESDAY.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW BTWN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CIGS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY. LATEST HRRR AND SREF INDICATE
IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLNS BY LATE AM. ELSEWHERE...SREF OUTPUT AND
18Z MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CONDS AT
KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KJST BY TUE AFTN...AND KBFD/KIPT BY TUE EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SPOTTY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE EVENING.
TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA OR -FZDZ OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN ARND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. WINDY LATE.
THU...BECOMING WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSH/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1157 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. AHEAD OF THIS LINE CIGS HAVE
DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP CIGS TO IFR AND MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
ABOUT 08Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15G25 KTS AND THEN TO 25G35 KTS BY
AROUND 18Z. WE SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING LATE EVENING TUESDAY.
AT DRT CIGS ARE MVFR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 10Z AND INCREASE
BY 18Z. WINDS OF 25G35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING DECREASING BY 03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORM ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE TO
THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. ALSO...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
UPDATE...
THE FIRST SET OF STRONG STORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT NOT NIL. SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...A LINE OF STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A BOWING LINE. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM...BETWEEN 5
AND 6 AM ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT AND AROUND NOON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4+
INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL
CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS
AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE
INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY
EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z
OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90.
ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT
NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS
LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL
FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 41 64 39 / 100 70 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 66 42 65 35 / 100 70 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 43 66 36 / 100 50 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 59 40 62 36 / 100 60 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 70 42 67 36 / 80 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 41 63 36 / 100 70 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 41 67 32 / 100 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 43 65 36 / 100 60 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 69 45 64 37 / 90 70 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 71 44 66 36 / 100 40 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 44 68 36 / 90 30 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER C TX ON TRACK
WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS AND WRF ARW/NMM RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AS WELL. MAIN CHANGES TO TAFS WERE TO SPEED UP TIMING OF TSRA BY
AN HOUR IN MOST CASES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HUNG ALONG THE COAST MAY
START TO PUSH NORTH AS WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE SE AT LBX/GLS. MAY
SEE VSBY BECOME RESTRICTED AND MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF CONVECTION. HAVE TSRA ENDING AT 18Z BUT COULD END AN HOUR
OR TWO SOONER. WIND GUSTS WILL BE MAIN ISSUE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
AS CIGS IMPROVE. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST WHERE GLS COULD HAVE GUSTS OF 40KTS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR COLORADO...JACKSON...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES EFFECTIVE UNTIL 4 AM.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS POSSIBLY STARTED DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT
MID EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS FORMING IN WEST TEXAS MOVES
TOWARD SE TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
TO FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCATION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP DICTATE THE TREK OF THE SURFACE LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE ARW AND NAM12 ARE
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. THE HRRR
AND RAP13 ARE A BIT FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6
AM AND THEN MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS ISOLATED TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREAS TRAVEL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ALTHOUGH THE RAP13 WAS
FORECASTING A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL.
FOR NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE AVIATION/MARINE SIDE
TWEAKED THE WINDS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION...CALM BEFORE THE STORM. BUSY TAF PACKAGE AS
PATTERN GETS ACTIVE WITH TSRA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET OVER THE S
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT SE TX TERMINALS FROM AS EARLY
AS 10Z THROUGH 18Z TUE.
EXPECT CIGS TO DEVELOP AND LOWER AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN W TX FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
MAY SEE SOME RESTRICTED VSBY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS FROM 06-12Z. LEANED MORE ON WRF-ARW/NMM FOR POSSIBLE
SQUALL LINE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA 12-16Z. TX TECH 3KM WRF HAS
THIS LINE OF STORMS ABOUT 2-3HRS EARLIER SO WILL MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE IF AN EARLIER TIMING MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT LOW
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS WITH TSRA SO WILL KEEP IFR CIGS AS
STORMS MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS.
CIGS IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS NW WINDS DEVELOP. EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 63 43 61 38 / 90 80 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 69 46 62 40 / 60 80 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 70 49 62 48 / 40 60 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORM ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE TO
THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. ALSO...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
UPDATE...
THE FIRST SET OF STRONG STORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT NOT NIL. SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS SHOW DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...A LINE OF STORMS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A BOWING LINE. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM...BETWEEN 5
AND 6 AM ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT AND AROUND NOON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4+
INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
AVIATION...
SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW FORMS OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. CIGS LOWER TO
IFR AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE TRANS PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SOME GS/GR
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
HAVE LEFT OUT GS/GR FROM THE TAFS AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z AT KDRT AND BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGS THE
SURFACE LOW BY A FEW HOURS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WRAP AROUND SCT-BKN
MVFR LAYER STRATUS AND ISOLD SHRA MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KAUS.
HAVE LEFT SHRA OUT AS PROBS ARE LOW WITH BEST CHANCES AT KAUS.
MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE MIXING UP TO 50 KT WINDS
ALOFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT NWLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 24 TO 34 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KTS OR SO MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. OCNL CROSSWIND ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AT KAUS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL
CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS
AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE
INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY
EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z
OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90.
ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT
NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS
LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL
FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 41 64 39 / 100 70 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 66 42 65 35 / 100 70 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 43 66 36 / 100 50 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 59 40 62 36 / 100 60 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 70 42 67 36 / 80 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 41 63 36 / 100 70 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 41 67 32 / 100 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 43 65 36 / 100 60 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 69 45 64 37 / 90 70 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 71 44 66 36 / 100 40 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 44 68 36 / 90 30 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1012 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY OF GREEN BAY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AROUND
THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
FEATURES...AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND FAR NE WI WILL
HOVER OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST.
OTHER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL EXIST OVER FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE
EVENING...BEFORE THIS TOO EXITS EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS FROM EITHER FEATURE...PERHAPS JUST A DUSTING. THEN AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT...A RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM LEAVES ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. IF SKIES DO CLEAR FOR A PERIOD...TEMPS HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE MORNING AND COULD SEE THE PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND N-C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY THE START OF THE EVENING. MILD FEBRUARY
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND HOW SIGNIFICANT THE PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ONLY MINOR PCPN CHANCES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI WITH A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A GLANCING BLOW IN EAST CENTRAL WI FROM THE
LARGE OHIO VALLEY STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN VILAS COUNTY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CIPS ANALOGS
SHOWED A 70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW OVER VILAS
COUNTY...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT STALL IT OVER ILLINOIS AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RIDES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PREVENTS A BIG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION...AND ALSO PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOWSTORM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE PATTERN
HOLDS...THERE WOULD PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH THE RRQ OF A STRONG
UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SUSPECT IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WE GET A DECENT HANDLE ON THE FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
WIDE RANGE OF CIGS ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT
AREA OF IFR CIGS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING HAS
EXPANDED THE LAST FEW HOURS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
WAS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AND FINALLY MAINLY VFR CIGS
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WERE NOTED. ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY...
...TURNING DRY...WINDY...AND MUCH COOLER THURSDAY...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) AT THE SPACE
CENTER AND SURROUNDING AREA WERE DETECTING SOUTHERLY 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 3500 FEET THEN SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS TIL AROUND 7000 FEET THEN WEST
SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS ABOVE 7000 FEET. THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE LOWER 3500 FEET HAVE STARTED TO MIX DOWN AND WE SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FROM 10AM/15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST RAP40 TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION(S) SHOWING "WEAK" ISENTROPIC
LIFTING OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. IR SATELLITE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MULTI LAYERED CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFTING MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MORNING/DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RADARS DETECTING SHOWERS FORMED/FORMING IN THE DEEPENING
INCREASINGLY MOISTENING SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 23/06Z GFS RUNS SHOW PRECIP LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BRIEF LULL TIL AROUND 06Z...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WED AS PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTERNOON
HIGHS LOOK OK CONSIDERING THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE WARM SOUTH WIND.
MORNING UPDATE OFF OF HRRR...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
.AVIATION...OVC VFR WITH CEILINGS AT/ABOVE FL030. CONCERN FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
.MARINE...THE TWO NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6 NM OFF THE
BEACHES WERE RECORDING 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 009 AT 20NM OFFSHORE
WAS RECORDING SOUTH WINDS 16 TO19 KNOT AND 6 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 01 AT
120NM OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING 7 FOOT SEAS. INCREASING SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON HELPS PUSH OFFSHORE SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE/EAST OF THE GULF STEAM. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE
CAUTION ALL WATERS TIL 4P THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 20
MILES OF SHORE LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 444 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN A
BREEZIER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. SOME CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WILL
DECREASE AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S
AND POSSIBLY MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. RECORD HIGHS LOOK OUT OF REACH
BUT TEMPS WILL BE 6 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE HEATING WILL
PRODUCE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NE. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ONE GIVEN THE COOL SURF TEMPS AND HEATING OF THE LAND
CREATING A THERMAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE COAST IF A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP. WILL
MAINTAIN 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
STORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE.
TONIGHT...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST EARLY
IN THE EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AND QUITE
WARM WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLOWLY FALLING BACK
THROUGH THE 70S. LOWS IN MID MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES DURING PAST 24 HOURS CONCERNING
APPROACHING SYSTEM OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PACE OF
MAIN PRECIP BAND. MID LEVEL CUTOFF NEAR MEM 12Z WED EJECTS N/NE
TOWARD OHIO VALLEY BY 25/06Z. WHILE MID/UPPER DYNAMICS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT FAR NW/N OF THE STATE...45-50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET CROSSES NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
PROSPECT OF A VEERING PROFILE WITHIN 0-3 KM LAYER TO WARRANT
CONCERN OF 150-200 M2/S2 HELICITY VALUES...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW
LEVEL STORM ROTATION. TIME PERIOD COINCIDES WITH HIGHEST
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SPREADING ACROSS CWA. BEST TIMING ESTIMATE
FOR MOST CONCENTRATED PRECIP COVERAGE...REACHING DAYTONA-
SANFORD- CLERMONT LINE AROUND NOON...ADVANCING TO NEAR VERO BEACH-
OKEECHOBEE LINE BY AROUND SUNSET...AND CONTINUING SOUTH OF CWA
BEFORE MID EVENING. GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES ACROSS NW THIRD OF CWA WITH LOWEST THREAT ACROSS SE
COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME UNIDIRECTION PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION...BUT CAN NOT DISCOUNT LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT
ANYWHERE WITHIN CWA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT DAYBREAK WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY SW AROUND MID DAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. EVEN WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER...SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH 80 AREAWIDE...WITH
MID 80S POSSIBLE SOUTH...YIELDING CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO PERHAPS
1000 J/KG. STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INT0 THE 50S BY DAYBREAK THU.
THURSDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND 15-20 DEGREES COOLER.
WINDY BY MID DAY WITH FLOW BRIEFLY BACKING FROM NW TO W AHEAD OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...LIKELY PASSING DURING THE EVENING AND
REINFORING DRY/COOL NW FLOW. FRI MORNING MINS RANGING FROM NEAR 40
ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR TO NEAR 50 SE COAST.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM ALONG THE GULF
COAST TO EAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A PLEASANT STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER. COOLEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS 10-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS THE NORTH TO
MID 60S CENTRAL/SOUTH. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP NIGHTS COOL...IN THE 40S SAT/SUN
MORNINGS...MODIFYING TO MOSTLY 50S BY MONDAY...EXCEPT MID/UPPER
40S N OF INTERSTATE 4.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ESP WHERE RAIN WETTING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. MORNING HIGH
CLOUDS AND PATCHY STRATOCU SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE WHICH
WILL SPARK SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAINLY AFTER 16Z LIFTING
NE. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD BE DAB-MLB BETWEEN 20Z-23Z. WIND FIELDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
(NON CONVECTIVE) LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE AT MOST TERMINALS INCLUDING MCO.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO DETERIORATE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SEAWARD AND PRESSURES
LOWER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CARRY AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR ALL WATERS FOR SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KNOTS TODAY
PRODUCING CHOPPY WIND WAVES MIXED WITH A LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL.
HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILD UP TO 7 FEET. THE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE NEAR SHORE
TONIGHT.
WED...STRONG S/SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO
WEST AS FRONT PASSES DURING THE EVENING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...MAINLY OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-5
FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY WILL BUILD 7-9 FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM MID DAY NORTH TO EARLY EVENING
FAR SOUTH.
THU...STRONG W WINDS CONTINUE...WITH SHIFT TO NW AND A RENEWED
SURGE AS SECONDARY FRONT PASSES DURING THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY WELL
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO SIMILAR
HEIGHTS AS SECONDARY WIND SURGE FILLS IN.
FRI-SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST FROM THE GULF...WINDS
WILL QUICKLY LESSEN FRI AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT BY SUNSET. NW
WIND NEAR 10 KT FRI NIGHT WILL VEER MORE NORTHERLY SAT. SEAS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRI...REACHING 2-3 FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SAT AND IMPROVING
FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 2-3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BY
SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIN RH TO
FALL NEAR/BELOW 35 PERCENT AREAWIDE THU TOGETHER WITH WEST WINDS
15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 AT TIMES AND EXCELLENT DISPERSION.
FRI-SUN...DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH GRADUAL TEMPERATURE
AND MOISTURE RECOVERY OCCURRING IN TANDEM...CAUSING MIN RH TO
FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT AWAY FROM COAST EACH AFTERNOON...ALBEIT
UNDER A LIGHT WIND REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 66 82 50 / 50 30 70 20
MCO 83 67 82 52 / 40 20 70 30
MLB 82 69 84 55 / 50 30 60 30
VRB 82 69 84 56 / 40 20 50 50
LEE 83 67 79 50 / 40 20 70 20
SFB 82 67 81 51 / 40 20 70 20
ORL 82 67 80 52 / 40 20 70 30
FPR 82 69 82 57 / 40 20 40 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
FORECASTS...WIMMER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KELLY
LONG TERM....SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
649 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE FL060-080 CLOUD DECK MOVING NORTH INTO SW
FL INCLUDING KAPF WILL SPREAD NE TO EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING.
ONGOING PRECIP OVER THE KEYS WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH AFFECTING KAPF
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. MAY ALSO SEE THE OCCASIONAL SHRA ALONG EAST
COAST, WITH BETTER CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SSE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH EAST COAST SITES ALREADY 9-12KTS INCREASING TO
13-16KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AFTER 14Z. KAPF INCREASES AS WELL TO
10-12KTS. DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SSE WINDS REMAINING
8-10KTS /ALM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016/
..MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...
..COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...NEXT FEW HOURS...GRIDS WERE UPDATED
AND THE POPS LOWERED TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. WITH 00Z SNDG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND STABILITY OVERNIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE APPEARED JUST WAY TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS.
TODAY...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST, AND DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE LOW IN TEXAS.
THE STRENGTHENING S TO SSW WINDS THROUGH H7 WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH FROM CUBA, AND PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 1.40"
AS A RESULT. YOU CAN IN FACT SEE SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRAITS AND KEYS AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE OR MAINLAND MONROE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS OF THIS IS NOT UNANIMOUS AMONG THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF A BIT WITH LATEST
RUNS. THIS IS MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL FLOW AND CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH (OR DEVELOP) THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
MAINLY BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW STILL AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY. A
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT AT THIS STAGE I LEFT IT OUT
OF FORECAST AS LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BARELY 5 C/KM
FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. FOR THE SAME REASONS WILL STAY
AT OR BELOW THE FORECAST POPS FROM THE BLENDED MODELS.
TONIGHT...A WARM NIGHT EXPECTED AS GOOD WAA CONTINUES UNDER DEEP S
TO SW FLOW. MIN TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S IN SE URBAN
SECTIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE RATHER DRY AND PWATS ACTUALLY
FALL A BIT AS SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR RACES NORTHEAST WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FAST MOVING SHOWER. BLENDED POPS MAY BE OVER INFLUENCED BY A VERY
DRY ECMWF MODEL. STUCK WITH JUST SLT CHC.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECENT COLD FRONT NEARING THE WEST
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS/WIND PROFILES LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND WEST COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS DEPICTED IN SPC OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. BUT
I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY, ALBEIT REMOTE, OF SEVERE
WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BOTTOM LINE AS WE LEARNED
LAST WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST AS IT IS AND WE WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. BUT UNLIKE LAST WEEK SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
TN. YET CONSENSUS OF MODELS REFLECT A LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS
WITH HELICITY VALUES OF 100-200 OR LOWER. SO MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THAT SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN BELOW 50 MPH OR SO.
GIVEN LOWER HELICITY VALUES THAN LAST EVENT MAIN CONCERN ARE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AT THIS TIME.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPC WILL OUTLOOK OTHER PARTS OF SOUTH FL AS THE
EVENT NEARS, AND WE STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS IN THE BAHAMAS BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEEP EASTERN TROUGH ALSO DELIVERS DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY BELOW
50F ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY THURS. APPARENT
TEMPS 45F OR BELOW ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS GLADES
COUNTY.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LONG TERM. THE
COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF +6C ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY MORNING
IS LOOKING AS OUR COLDEST MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT FEATURING LOWS
AROUND 40F FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FLIPPING AS TO WHAT THE COLDEST NIGHT COULD BE. THE BOTTOM LINE
HOWEVER IS NICE WEATHER WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY.
MARINE...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT PUTS WINDS AT 15-20 KTS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS NEAR 7 FEET ALONG THE GULF STREAM
THURSDAY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY, AND
THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A RESPITE
THURSDAY, WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH ENTERS
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 71 84 59 / 40 10 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 83 63 / 40 20 20 40
MIAMI 81 72 83 64 / 40 20 20 40
NAPLES 81 68 81 63 / 20 0 40 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
507 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...
...COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
NEXT FEW HOURS...GRIDS WERE UPDATED AND THE POPS LOWERED TO
BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. WITH 00Z SNDG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
STABILITY OVERNIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARED JUST
WAY TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS.
TODAY...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST, AND DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE LOW IN TEXAS.
THE STRENGTHENING S TO SSW WINDS THROUGH H7 WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH FROM CUBA, AND PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 1.40"
AS A RESULT. YOU CAN IN FACT SEE SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRAITS AND KEYS AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE OR MAINLAND MONROE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS OF THIS IS NOT UNANIMOUS AMONG THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF A BIT WITH LATEST
RUNS. THIS IS MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL FLOW AND CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH (OR DEVELOP) THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
MAINLY BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW STILL AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY. A
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT AT THIS STAGE I LEFT IT OUT
OF FORECAST AS LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BARELY 5 C/KM
FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. FOR THE SAME REASONS WILL STAY
AT OR BELOW THE FORECAST POPS FROM THE BLENDED MODELS.
TONIGHT...A WARM NIGHT EXPECTED AS GOOD WAA CONTINUES UNDER DEEP S
TO SW FLOW. MIN TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S IN SE URBAN
SECTIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE RATHER DRY AND PWATS ACTUALLY
FALL A BIT AS SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR RACES NORTHEAST WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FAST MOVING SHOWER. BLENDED POPS MAY BE OVER INFLUENCED BY A VERY
DRY ECMWF MODEL. STUCK WITH JUST SLT CHC.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECENT COLD FRONT NEARING THE WEST
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS/WIND PROFILES LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND WEST COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS DEPICTED IN SPC OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. BUT
I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY, ALBEIT REMOTE, OF SEVERE
WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BOTTOM LINE AS WE LEARNED
LAST WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST AS IT IS AND WE WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. BUT UNLIKE LAST WEEK SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS TRACKING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
TN. YET CONSENSUS OF MODELS REFLECT A LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS
WITH HELICITY VALUES OF 100-200 OR LOWER. SO MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THAT SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN BELOW 50 MPH OR SO.
GIVEN LOWER HELICITY VALUES THAN LAST EVENT MAIN CONCERN ARE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AT THIS TIME.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPC WILL OUTLOOK OTHER PARTS OF SOUTH FL AS THE
EVENT NEARS, AND WE STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS IN THE BAHAMAS BY 12Z
THURSDAY AND A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEEP EASTERN TROUGH ALSO DELIVERS DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY BELOW
50F ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY THURS. APPARENT
TEMPS 45F OR BELOW ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS GLADES
COUNTY.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LONG TERM. THE
COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF +6C ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY MORNING
IS LOOKING AS OUR COLDEST MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT FEATURING LOWS
AROUND 40F FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FLIPPING AS TO WHAT THE COLDEST NIGHT COULD BE. THE BOTTOMLINE
HOWEVER IS NICE WEATHER WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT PUTS WINDS AT 15-20 KTS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS NEAR 7 FEET ALONG THE GULF STREAM
THURSDAY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY, AND
THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A RESPITE
THURSDAY, WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN OFF THE EAST COAST WITH
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH ENTERS
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 71 84 59 / 40 10 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 83 63 / 40 20 20 40
MIAMI 81 72 83 64 / 40 20 20 40
NAPLES 81 68 81 63 / 20 0 40 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02/RG
LONG TERM....52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEDGE FRONT WAS NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED LITTLE COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR WEDGING SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF UPPER
LIFT BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME
SOUTH PART.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD TENNESSEE TONIGHT. WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. TOWARD MORNING 850MB WINDS INCREASE FROM
30 KTS TO 60 KTS IN THE CSRA POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY LIKELY INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RAIN CHANCE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET
OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED
SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR
THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN THE CSRA AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. STRONG WEST FLOW CONTINUES
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING DURING THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH
OF OGB AND EAST OF CAE/CUB. EXPECT MVFR...POSSIBLE
IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL BE
NORTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THAT AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWEST
CIGS/VSBYS AT CAE/CUB. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AFTER 24/08Z AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM EASTERN TX AND TRACKS TOWARD
CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING
AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN TIMING TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OR LLWS ATTM...HOWEVER EXPECT THESE TO BE
INCLUDED IN UPCOMING ISSUANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING INTO EAST TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER CENTRAL TX
PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION. ORGANIZING SFC LOW OVER EAST TX
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE...PULLING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE COAST NWD AS A WARM FRONT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC WIND FIELDS ARE FCST TO
MARKEDLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION OF A 50-60KT
LLJ...EASILY SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER SHOULD DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZE.
LOW CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PCPN THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SHRA/TSRA COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/
..POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...
SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...DIGGING OVER WRN TX. THIS TROF WAS BEGINNING TO INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES ACRS SRN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ALREADY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING N-S ACRS TX...WITH SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACRS SRN TX TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TX COAST. A WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FM THE LOW EAST
ACRS THE UPR TX COAST TOWARD BTR...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT DRIFTED SOUTHWARD MONDAY. OVERNIGHT OBS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG
ACRS SW/CNTL LA...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION.
VSBYS ARE NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
24
DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED TODAY
AS IT MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LVL SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS
ERN TX INTO NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SFC PRESSURES FALLING A
GOOD 10 MB DURING THAT TIME. THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY SLY WINDS ACRS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO NR 20 MPH BY MIDDAY.
GUSTS ACRS THE AREA COULD APPROACH 35 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONG SLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING TIDAL PILEUP ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SABINE LAKE. THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR WEATHER.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. A STRONG MID LVL JET...NEAR 100
KT...WILL PIVOT THE BASE OF THE TROF AND OVER THE STRONG SLY LOW
LVL FLOW. THIS WILL SETUP VERY FAVORABLE WIND DYNAMICS FOR SVR
STORMS...WITH STRONG SHEAR NR 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. INSTABILITY...WHILE INITIALLY
LIMITED...SHOULD IMPROVE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC LOW/FRONT ENCOUNTER
AN AIRMASS WARMED SOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL
BE THE EFFECT OF THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FM TX
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...AND
WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE. LASTLY...COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LVL HT FALLS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...WITH
MUCAPES FCST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 800-1300 J/KG BY AFTN. WITH ALL
THESE FACTORS IN PLACE...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SVR HAZARDS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TODAY...WITH A MODT RISK JUST
NOSING INTO THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND A SLIGHT RISK
ACRS OUR SE TX COUNTIES.
AS FOR THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER
OUR SE TX COUNTIES BY MID-AFTN...REACHING AN AEX-LCH LINE BY
00Z AND EXITING OUR ERN ZONES BY 03Z THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF ALOFT
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE BRINGING A RATHER QUICK END TO THE
STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WRN/CNTL LA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE STRONG LOW LVL CIRCULATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST THEN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO CLR ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE GULF COAST. BELOW NORMAL
LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST. LOW RAIN CHCS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.
24
MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INITIALLY
IN EFFECT THIS MORNING WILL UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME
STRONG...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACRS
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W-NW AND
STRENGTHENING FURTHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BUT STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH DURING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MOSTLY OFFSHORE
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 44 56 38 / 100 50 10 0
LCH 73 47 61 40 / 100 20 10 0
LFT 74 48 60 39 / 100 30 10 0
BPT 74 47 62 39 / 100 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY
FOR GMZ452-455-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-470.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
521 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
...POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...DIGGING OVER WRN TX. THIS TROF WAS BEGINNING TO INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES ACRS SRN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ALREADY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING N-S ACRS TX...WITH SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACRS SRN TX TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TX COAST. A WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FM THE LOW EAST
ACRS THE UPR TX COAST TOWARD BTR...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT DRIFTED SOUTHWARD MONDAY. OVERNIGHT OBS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG
ACRS SW/CNTL LA...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION.
VSBYS ARE NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED TODAY
AS IT MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LVL SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS
ERN TX INTO NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SFC PRESSURES FALLING A
GOOD 10 MB DURING THAT TIME. THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY SLY WINDS ACRS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO NR 20 MPH BY MIDDAY.
GUSTS ACRS THE AREA COULD APPROACH 35 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONG SLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING TIDAL PILEUP ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SABINE LAKE. THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR WEATHER.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. A STRONG MID LVL JET...NEAR 100
KT...WILL PIVOT THE BASE OF THE TROF AND OVER THE STRONG SLY LOW
LVL FLOW. THIS WILL SETUP VERY FAVORABLE WIND DYNAMICS FOR SVR
STORMS...WITH STRONG SHEAR NR 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. INSTABILITY...WHILE INITIALLY
LIMITED...SHOULD IMPROVE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC LOW/FRONT ENCOUNTER
AN AIRMASS WARMED SOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL
BE THE EFFECT OF THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FM TX
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...AND
WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE. LASTLY...COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LVL HT FALLS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...WITH
MUCAPES FCST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 800-1300 J/KG BY AFTN. WITH ALL
THESE FACTORS IN PLACE...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SVR HAZARDS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TODAY...WITH A MODT RISK JUST
NOSING INTO THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND A SLIGHT RISK
ACRS OUR SE TX COUNTIES.
AS FOR THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER
OUR SE TX COUNTIES BY MID-AFTN...REACHING AN AEX-LCH LINE BY
00Z AND EXITING OUR ERN ZONES BY 03Z THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF ALOFT
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE BRINGING A RATHER QUICK END TO THE
STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WRN/CNTL LA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE STRONG LOW LVL CIRCULATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST THEN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO CLR ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE GULF COAST. BELOW NORMAL
LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST. LOW RAIN CHCS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INITIALLY
IN EFFECT THIS MORNING WILL UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME
STRONG...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACRS
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W-NW AND
STRENGTHENING FURTHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BUT STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH DURING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MOSTLY OFFSHORE
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 44 56 38 / 100 50 10 0
LCH 73 47 61 40 / 100 20 10 0
LFT 74 48 60 39 / 100 30 10 0
BPT 74 47 62 39 / 100 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY
FOR GMZ452-455-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
915 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS EARLIER...AND WILL DO SO AGAIN LATE MORNING.
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR TODAY ARE TIMING THE WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT METARS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS IN ERN SD THAT
IS TRYING TO MOVE SWD. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR BRING AN AREA OF HIGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC (SPECIFICALLY AROUND
925 MB) INTO MUCH OF WRN IA AND THE ERN PARTS OF ERN NE THIS AFTN.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF CLOUD COVER IS HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
AN ISOLATED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z AND SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER
MODEL RUNS. A COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER COMPACT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY HEADING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW THIS FEATURE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG CIRCULATION AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING EARLY IN EASTERN AREAS.
CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERN CONUS SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARD SOUTHEAST CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND DURING THE PERIOD AS REGION
AGAIN COMES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
RATHER VARIABLE AND UNCERTAIN PATTERN INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. GFS MUCH
STRONGER WITH ITS WAVE ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY RESULTING IN A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE EURO.
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AT THIS TIME
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
KNOX...ANTELOPE AND BOONE COUNTIES IN NERN NEB INTO S-CNTRL
NEB...JUST E OF KEAR AND KHDE. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
KOFK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND KOMA AND KLNK AROUND 15Z WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE THE NW /300-310 DEGREES/ WITH ITS PASSAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING AT KOFK AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KOMA AND KLNK. SOME DETERMINISTIC HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER ERN ND COULD AFFECT KOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE THIS TO BE A LOW-
PROBABILITY OUTCOME...SO WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION WITH THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
453 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH RAIN THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE BELOW 4000 FEET.
A MIXED-BAG OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND AT KFMN/KGUP. MOST SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS FORECAST
AT KLVS...WHERE SHORT-LIVED LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KABQ/KAEG THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE
RUNWAYS. IMPROVEMENT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
130KT JET CORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR NARA VISA AND LOGAN NWWD TO NEAR ROY AND RATON. NMDOT CAMERA
AT RATON PASS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. WILL KEEP
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. BAND OF SNOW PROGGED
TO PIVOT WWD THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO POINTS WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SANGRES...INCLUDING WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN TAOS COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND NAM12
KEEP SNOW OUT OF ABQ METRO AS EAST WINDS BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON BUT HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAND INTACT. LOOKING
AT WIND ORIENTATION AND SPEED AT 700MB (~10K FT) FROM EACH
MODEL...TOUGH TO SEE HOW THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS
ABQ. AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN OR RAIN SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SE PLAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY EACH DAY ACROSS THE WEST BUT COOL SOMEWHAT
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NE PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NE NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED
THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WLY FLOW TO MONDAY AND ECMWF
HAS LOST THE WAVE ALTOGETHER. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (ENTERING THE WEST PACIFIC) TO GET
PROLONGED CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR BEFORE THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE. LATEST 15-DAY
GFSENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE OSCILLATION MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
(PHASE8) TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. WE SHALL SEE.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS.
THE COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A NEW WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED IMPACTS FROM A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TODAY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED...OR PERHAPS EVEN CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES SO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. GENERALLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON LOW-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
TODAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-514-516-523-529-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513-515-527-528-530.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
130KT JET CORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR NARA VISA AND LOGAN NWWD TO NEAR ROY AND RATON. NMDOT CAMERA
AT RATON PASS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. WILL KEEP
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. BAND OF SNOW PROGGED
TO PIVOT WWD THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO POINTS WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SANGRES...INCLUDING WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN TAOS COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND NAM12
KEEP SNOW OUT OF ABQ METRO AS EAST WINDS BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON BUT HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAND INTACT. LOOKING
AT WIND ORIENTATION AND SPEED AT 700MB (~10K FT) FROM EACH
MODEL...TOUGH TO SEE HOW THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS
ABQ. AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN OR RAIN SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SE PLAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY EACH DAY ACROSS THE WEST BUT COOL SOMEWHAT
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NE PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NE NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED
THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WLY FLOW TO MONDAY AND ECMWF
HAS LOST THE WAVE ALTOGETHER. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (ENTERING THE WEST PACIFIC) TO GET
PROLONGED CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR BEFORE THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE. LATEST 15-DAY
GFSENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE OSCILLATION MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
(PHASE8) TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. WE SHALL SEE.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS.
THE COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A NEW WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED IMPACTS FROM A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TODAY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED...OR PERHAPS EVEN CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES SO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. GENERALLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON LOW-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
TODAY.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 23/18Z. STRONG CDFNT WITH NLY WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KT TO SURGE INTO NE NM WITH -SN AND BR IN MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND DEVELOPING SWD AND WWD TO THE
EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
OBSCG TERRAIN. WDLY SCT SHOWERS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS.
POTENTIAL FOR ELY GAP WIND INTO KSAF AND KABQ VCNTY BY 23/18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 48 21 51 22 / 30 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 15 43 6 / 60 30 0 0
CUBA............................ 40 19 44 15 / 60 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 44 11 52 13 / 20 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 10 48 12 / 30 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 43 12 52 14 / 30 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 16 52 17 / 5 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 55 22 58 21 / 0 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 33 9 38 9 / 60 40 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 20 45 23 / 70 40 0 0
PECOS........................... 36 15 44 18 / 70 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 11 39 11 / 60 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 25 9 34 11 / 80 20 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 -7 37 -4 / 80 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 36 10 43 14 / 50 10 0 0
MORA............................ 33 13 45 17 / 70 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 46 22 52 20 / 50 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 39 19 45 22 / 60 30 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 17 49 23 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 23 50 26 / 50 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 47 25 53 28 / 40 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 20 55 23 / 40 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 25 54 27 / 40 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 18 55 21 / 30 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 25 54 27 / 40 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 24 56 27 / 30 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 20 45 24 / 70 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 38 17 47 20 / 60 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 14 48 13 / 50 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 16 44 20 / 70 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 17 47 22 / 50 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 19 51 23 / 30 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 21 47 27 / 60 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 29 11 40 16 / 70 5 0 0
RATON........................... 33 11 45 15 / 60 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 37 15 47 17 / 60 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 16 49 18 / 70 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 36 18 50 20 / 60 5 0 0
ROY............................. 34 16 47 17 / 60 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 44 22 56 23 / 60 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 23 55 26 / 60 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 22 56 21 / 70 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 42 23 55 26 / 60 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 44 21 56 25 / 60 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 24 58 24 / 60 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 23 60 26 / 50 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 45 24 55 27 / 50 5 0 0
ELK............................. 42 22 51 25 / 50 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-514-516-529-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513-515-527-528-530.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SFC LOW NEAR THE TX/LA COAST...WARM ADVECTION/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE RETREATING COLD SECTOR TODAY. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81/US-15 CORRIDOR PER
THE LATEST HRRR. COMPLEX BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS IN PLAY ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIXED PTYPES. THERE IS A
LOWER DEGREE OF CERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL
BE...WITH THE VERY NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE
ALREADY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIRES HRRR/NCAR/SSEO FOR SNOW/ICE
AMTS WHICH POINTED TOWARD A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION /AROUND 1
INCH MAX/ OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AND THIN
ICE GLAZE /LESS THAN 0.10 INCH/ PSBL INTO THE N-CENTRAL/ENDLESS
MTNS. HIGHER SNOW/ICE AMTS PROJECTED INTO THE POCONOS/NERN PA WHERE
PHI/BGM HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY.
A STRONG 850MB LLJ WILL BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT
WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN/FZDZ WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THE
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN MAY SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THE POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. MDL
TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 32F AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM WRN TN THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY ON DAY 2/WED...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. AFTER
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PCPN...EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PICK
UP WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD INCREASE TO
50+KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO WRN NY
AND TRANSPORT HI PWATS INTO CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY /MAINLY ELEVATED/ WHICH MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS BTWN 24/18Z AND 25/06Z. THE HIGH MSTR CONTENT AIR ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/SHORT-DURATION HEAVY
RAIN RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW 3HR FFG VALUES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL NOTE THIS IN HWO. WPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN ITS DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK. FOLLOWED WPC QPF
AMTS WHICH WERE BASED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z EC/NAM SOLUTIONS
AND SHOW WIDESPREAD 1+INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
TRACKING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD AFFORD A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMS ON DAY 3. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURS NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR LATER FRIDAY AND PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
COLDER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TO
CONTINUE DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM
PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HRRR AND SREF INDICATE IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLNS BY THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SREF OUTPUT A SUPPORT A
LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CONDS AT KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KJST BY THIS EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SPOTTY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON...TUE
EVENING. TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL
PERIOD OF LGT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA OR PATCHY -FZDZ OVR THE
HIGH TERRAIN ARND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. WINDY LATE.
THU...BECOMING WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
543 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SFC LOW NEAR THE TX/LA COAST...WARM ADVECTION/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE RETREATING COLD SECTOR TODAY. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81/US-15 CORRIDOR PER
THE LATEST HRRR. COMPLEX BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS IN PLAY ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIXED PTYPES. THERE IS A
LOWER DEGREE OF CERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL
BE...WITH THE VERY NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE
ALREADY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIRES HRRR/NCAR/SSEO FOR SNOW/ICE
AMTS WHICH POINTED TOWARD A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION /AROUND 1
INCH MAX/ OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AND THIN
ICE GLAZE /LESS THAN 0.10 INCH/ PSBL INTO THE N-CENTRAL/ENDLESS
MTNS. HIGHER SNOW/ICE AMTS PROJECTED INTO THE POCONOS/NERN PA WHERE
PHI/BGM HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY.
A STRONG 850MB LLJ WILL BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT
WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN/FZDZ WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THE
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN MAY SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THE POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. MDL
TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 32F AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM WRN TN THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY ON DAY 2/WED...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. AFTER
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PCPN...EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PICK
UP WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD INCREASE TO
50+KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO WRN NY
AND TRANSPORT HI PWATS INTO CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY /MAINLY ELEVATED/ WHICH MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS BTWN 24/18Z AND 25/06Z. THE HIGH MSTR CONTENT AIR ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/SHORT-DURATION HEAVY
RAIN RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW 3HR FFG VALUES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL NOTE THIS IN HWO. WPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN ITS DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK. FOLLOWED WPC QPF
AMTS WHICH WERE BASED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z EC/NAM SOLUTIONS
AND SHOW WIDESPREAD 1+INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
TRACKING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD AFFORD A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMS ON DAY 3. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURS NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR LATER FRIDAY AND PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
COLDER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A
WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL SPREAD
LOWERING CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
TUESDAY. LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS KJST STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MVFR CIGS REDUCTIONS JUST BEFORE DAWN...WITH LITTLE CHC
ELSEWHERE.
WEAK LOW PRES PASSING EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL LIKELY GRAZE SE
PA WITH A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF TUESDAY.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW BTWN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CIGS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY. LATEST HRRR AND SREF INDICATE
IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLNS BY LATE AM. ELSEWHERE...SREF OUTPUT AND
18Z MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CONDS AT
KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KJST BY TUE AFTN...AND KBFD/KIPT BY TUE EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SPOTTY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE EVENING.
TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA OR -FZDZ OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN ARND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. WINDY LATE.
THU...BECOMING WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
251 PM PST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH SIMILAR READINGS IN THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE MOMENT WE DO HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE 20Z HRRR IS SUGGESTING LOWER
SURFACE RH VALUES THAN THIS MORNING. WE WILL KEEP THE PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM
ON NORCAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MOST WE CAN REASONABLY EXPECT
ARE MORE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A SECOND
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORCAL AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE QUICKLY
REBUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE NEXT TWO STORM SYSTEMS FORECAST TO SKIRT TO OUR
NORTH...WE CAN CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR INTO EARLY MARCH. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK HOLDING AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA BELOW NORMAL PRECIP FOR DAYS
6-10 AND 8-14. AT THE SAME TIME...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM 09Z THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 23 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN AND TULARE
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INVLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ROWE
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
605 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z.
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE.
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY 12Z. EXPECT
WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE. DESPITE THE
WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE CSRA TOWARD
SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD
FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF
36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS
PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH GENERAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
THE NAM INDICATED 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD
LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS AROUND 0.40 OF INCH.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING WAS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E
CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONTAL/WEDGE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
OGB...WEST TO JUST NORTH OF DNL. ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY...WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDINESS/IFR CIGS AND IFR
TO MVFR VSBYS IN PROGRESS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SHIFT SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO...CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
SLIP INTO DNL/AGS. CURRENT RADAR ONLY INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CHANCES OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL JUST HANDLE WITH VCSH. THE FRONT AND WEDGE BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD AND
EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MODELS TEND TO MOVE WARM FRONTS
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. WILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT. NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE AN EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
204 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE FRONT WAS NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED LITTLE COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR WEDGING SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE
OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF UPPER LIFT BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER
TO THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME SOUTH PART.
TONIGHT...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 12Z. SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY
12Z. EXPECT WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE.
DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE
CSRA TOWARD SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD
FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF
36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS
PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH GENERAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
THE NAM INDICATED 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD
LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE SREF MEAN WAS AROUND 0.40 OF INCH.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING WAS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E
CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONTAL/WEDGE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
OGB...WEST TO JUST NORTH OF DNL. ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY...WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDINESS/IFR CIGS AND IFR
TO MVFR VSBYS IN PROGRESS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SHIFT SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO...CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
SLIP INTO DNL/AGS. CURRENT RADAR ONLY INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CHANCES OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL JUST HANDLE WITH VCSH. THE FRONT AND WEDGE BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD AND
EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MODELS TEND TO MOVE WARM FRONTS
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. WILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT. NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE AN EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE WINDY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE FRONT WAS NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED LITTLE COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR WEDGING SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE
OF THE WEDGE AND LACK OF UPPER LIFT BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER
TO THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME SOUTH PART.
TONIGHT...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 12Z. SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING H85 WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KNOTS BY
12Z. EXPECT WEAK INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S 0 TO -1 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE.
DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAINLY IN THE
CSRA TOWARD SUNRISE WHEN GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONG SHEAR WITH AN H85 JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE CORE OF THIS JET THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND INCLUDING TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADDED SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NEAR THE COLD
FRONT MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT INDICATES A MEAN OF
36 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 50 KNOTS AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND THIS HAS
PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A GENERAL WIND ADVISORY.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WE MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DRY REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CONTINUED TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E
CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DRIVING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONTAL/WEDGE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
OGB...WEST TO JUST NORTH OF DNL. ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY...WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDINESS/IFR CIGS AND IFR
TO MVFR VSBYS IN PROGRESS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SHIFT SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO...CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
CAE/CUB/OGB...WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
SLIP INTO DNL/AGS. CURRENT RADAR ONLY INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CHANCES OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL JUST HANDLE WITH VCSH. THE FRONT AND WEDGE BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD AND
EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MODELS TEND TO MOVE WARM FRONTS
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. WILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT. NEXT MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE AN EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD 1002MB SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING...STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVER C LA INTO MS. OTHER THAN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SW LA TO C LA...THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE REMAINING OFFSHORE ACROSS THE 20-60NM COASTAL
WATERS AND BEYOND. SLIGHT RISK STILL OUTLINED FROM THE SABINE
EASTWARD...BUT LOOKING UNLIKELY FOR SVR WX THREAT ACROSS W LA AT
THIS TIME. STILL THINKING THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACADIANA
EASTWARD WHERE THE ENHANCED RISK IS OUTLINED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS PER 16Z SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE. ONGOING
FORECAST ON TRACK IN OUTLINE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MAY HAVE TO RE-WORD WX DESCRIPTIONS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
ONGOING HAZARDS ON TRACK. REWORDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
CAMERON AND VERMILION TO REACH NEAR 3.0-3.5 FEET MLLW...AND
3.5-4.0 FT MLLW FOR INTRACOASTAL CITY EASTWARD TO THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER WHERE THE SW ONSHORE WINDS STILL LOOKS TO CAUSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING TIMES WILL REMAIN...AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND STRENGTHENS...MUCH STRONGER W TO NW
WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU WED AFTERNOON.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING INTO EAST TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER CENTRAL TX
PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION. ORGANIZING SFC LOW OVER EAST TX
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE...PULLING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE COAST NWD AS A WARM FRONT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC WIND FIELDS ARE FCST TO
MARKEDLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION OF A 50-60KT
LLJ...EASILY SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER SHOULD DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZE.
LOW CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PCPN THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SHRA/TSRA COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/
.POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...
SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...DIGGING OVER WRN TX. THIS TROF WAS BEGINNING TO INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES ACRS SRN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WAS ALREADY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING N-S ACRS TX...WITH SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACRS SRN TX TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TX COAST. A WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FM THE LOW EAST
ACRS THE UPR TX COAST TOWARD BTR...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THAT DRIFTED SOUTHWARD MONDAY. OVERNIGHT OBS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG
ACRS SW/CNTL LA...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION.
VSBYS ARE NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
24
DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED TODAY
AS IT MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LVL SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS
ERN TX INTO NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SFC PRESSURES FALLING A
GOOD 10 MB DURING THAT TIME. THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY SLY WINDS ACRS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO NR 20 MPH BY MIDDAY.
GUSTS ACRS THE AREA COULD APPROACH 35 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONG SLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING TIDAL PILEUP ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF SABINE LAKE. THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE TODAY WILL BE SVR WEATHER.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. A STRONG MID LVL JET...NEAR 100
KT...WILL PIVOT THE BASE OF THE TROF AND OVER THE STRONG SLY LOW
LVL FLOW. THIS WILL SETUP VERY FAVORABLE WIND DYNAMICS FOR SVR
STORMS...WITH STRONG SHEAR NR 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. INSTABILITY...WHILE INITIALLY
LIMITED...SHOULD IMPROVE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC LOW/FRONT ENCOUNTER
AN AIRMASS WARMED SOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL
BE THE EFFECT OF THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FM TX
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...AND
WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE. LASTLY...COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LVL HT FALLS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...WITH
MUCAPES FCST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 800-1300 J/KG BY AFTN. WITH ALL
THESE FACTORS IN PLACE...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SVR HAZARDS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TODAY...WITH A MODT RISK JUST
NOSING INTO THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND A SLIGHT RISK
ACRS OUR SE TX COUNTIES.
AS FOR THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER
OUR SE TX COUNTIES BY MID-AFTN...REACHING AN AEX-LCH LINE BY
00Z AND EXITING OUR ERN ZONES BY 03Z THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF ALOFT
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE BRINGING A RATHER QUICK END TO THE
STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WRN/CNTL LA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE STRONG LOW LVL CIRCULATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST THEN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS SLOW TO CLR ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE GULF COAST. BELOW NORMAL
LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST. LOW RAIN CHCS SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.
24
MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INITIALLY
IN EFFECT THIS MORNING WILL UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME
STRONG...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACRS
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W-NW AND
STRENGTHENING FURTHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BUT STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS AS COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH DURING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MOSTLY OFFSHORE
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 69 44 56 38 / 100 50 10 0
LCH 73 47 61 40 / 100 20 10 0
LFT 74 48 60 39 / 100 30 10 0
BPT 74 47 62 39 / 100 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ052>055-073-074.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
554 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN
LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN
INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA
HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE
SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG
WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST
HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO
NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW
SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV
ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10
INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE
STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND
TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO
LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS
FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW
PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR CIGS OVER WRN UPPER MI ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KSAW THIS
EVENING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER KIWD AND KCMX AND THEN SPREAD INTO KSAW BY MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBY AT KIWD AND PUT THAT IN FOR
OVERNIGHT. AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT NRLY
AND BRING CIGS DOWN TO IFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY FROM -SHSN/FLURRIES
AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS OF TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN
LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN
INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA
HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE
SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG
WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST
HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO
NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW
SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV
ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10
INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE
STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND
TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO
LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS
FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW
PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR CIGS OVER WRN UPPER MI ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO INTO KSAW
THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND THEN
SPREAD INTO KSAW LATE EVENING. VSBY WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AT
KIWD AND KSAW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT NRLY AND BRING CIGS DOWN TO
IFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY FROM -SHSN/FLURRIES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS OF TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM AFFECTING THE NRN
LAKES DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE
OVER WRN CANADA. 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED AREAS OF SNOW FROM NE MN
INTO NW WI TO IWD AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH WRN UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST ALONG WITH SW FLOW WAA
HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV DIGS TO THE
SE...THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA. SO...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM IWD TO CMX AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY...850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR LES OR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
INCREASING NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C ALONG
WITH A BAND OF LINGERING 925-850 MB MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NE FLOW OVER THE WEST
HALF. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARUOND 4K FT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MERGES INTO IT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE -12C TO
-15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
INVERSION HEIGHT PROGGED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4KFT SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE LES POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO GIVE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST HALF. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF...DUE TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
LAYER...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS LIKE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR ISSUE. IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY DURING THE DAY OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GALE GUSTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE U.P. COULD GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH THE
APPROACH OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES
THROUGH...IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST HALF AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMP TO AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. AGAIN...THIS
SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH THAT TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA TO
NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW. ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW
SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING DEEP LAYER QCONV
ALONG WITH 1000-500MB RH. QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH ONLY AROUND 0.10
INCHES PAINTED OUT ALONG THE FRONT. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
INTENSITY AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT POSITION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THE
STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS MODELS TREND
TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO
LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FOCUSED
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE WEAKER ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER THAN IT APPEARED A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. THERE WILL STILL BE BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS EXTREME AS EARLIER MODELS
HAD SUGGESTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. IT MAY BRUSH THE U.P. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE SOLUTION. EC IS
FARTHER NORTH AND GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR NOW
AS THE MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE ON PINNING DOWN SNOW
PROBABILITY FOR SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR CIGS OVER WRN UPPER MI ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO INTO KSAW
THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND THEN
SPREAD INTO KSAW LATE EVENING. VSBY WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AT
KIWD AND KSAW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT NRLY AND BRING CIGS DOWN TO
IFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY FROM -SHSN/FLURRIES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES...SW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNDER 25KT TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20
KTS OR LESS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS STILL A GREAT AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT W-NW GALES TO 35 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
253 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
Have made some significant adjustments to the forecast that
include metro St. Louis. A winter weather advisory and a wind
advisory has already been issued for late tonight and tomorrow.
Water vapor shows that the upper low is bottoming out over the
Southern Plains that will move northeast tonight and tomorrow
morning through the Mid South into the Ohio Valley. The 12Z run of
the GFS showed a slight shift to the northwest with the axis of
the precipitation whereas the 12Z ECMWF is slightly farther to
southeast. GFS is showing intense frontogenesis that will move
along the northwestern edge of precipitation band from the
eastern Ozarks into central Illinois including the St. Louis metro
area from 09-15Z that will likely be producing heavy
precipitation rates. Forecast soundings indicate that this will be
snow. The latest runs from the HRRR, WRF, and RAP all are
supporting this, showing mesoscale banding moving up into eastern
Missouri and southwestern Illinois late tonight and early
Wednesday. So expect precipitation to move into the area this
evening and overnight through the morning hours, with more snow
now given the amount of forcing slightly colder soundings.
This now justifies issuing an advisory for the southeastern half of
the CWA of snowfall amounts. There will be a time in the morning
where the snow could be heavy at times with big wet heavy flakes.
It will also be windy as the pressure gradient will be tightening
as the surface low deepens. Have also issued a wind advisory for
the same location as the winter weather advisory.
Have lowered temperatures below guidance. Temperatures will be
hampered from rising tomorrow by the clouds and the precipitation.
Precipitation will end from west to east during the afternoon as the
system begins to lift out of the area.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
Still looks like we will stay dry from Thursday into Saturday as
there will not be much moisture to work with under northwesterly
flow aloft. Temperatures will go from below normal to back above
normal for the weekend. Still looks like a system will bring us a
chance of precipitation on Sunday night.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2016
For KUIN/KCOU...VFR and dry thru most of the period. Cigs will
gradually lower this evening. Cigs shud drop into high-end MVFR at
COU Wed morning. Otherwise, winds will increase and back slightly
overnight.
Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: The forecast is still being
updated, but latest guidance suggests a band of SN will set up
further NW than initially thought. This would place a band of SN
to impact terminals late tonight thru mid Wed morning. Since
exactly where this band will set up will have a huge impact on
visbys, kept visbys in low IFR for now. Snowfall amounts are also
still being worked out, but latest thoughts of 3 inches, possibly
more, are currently expected.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Wednesday FOR Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR
Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison
IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair
IL-Washington IL.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Bond
IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Marion IL-
Montgomery IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS EARLIER...AND WILL DO SO AGAIN LATE MORNING.
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR TODAY ARE TIMING THE WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT METARS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS IN ERN SD THAT
IS TRYING TO MOVE SWD. RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR BRING AN AREA OF HIGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC (SPECIFICALLY AROUND
925 MB) INTO MUCH OF WRN IA AND THE ERN PARTS OF ERN NE THIS AFTN.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF CLOUD COVER IS HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
AN ISOLATED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z AND SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER
MODEL RUNS. A COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY.
ANOTHER COMPACT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY HEADING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG
CIRCULATION AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING EARLY
IN EASTERN AREAS. CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERN CONUS
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHEAST CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND DURING THE PERIOD AS REGION
AGAIN COMES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
RATHER VARIABLE AND UNCERTAIN PATTERN INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. GFS MUCH
STRONGER WITH ITS WAVE ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY RESULTING IN A COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE EURO.
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AT THIS TIME
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS ERN SD...PARTS OF WRN IA
AND FAR ERN NE LATE THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT
KOMA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR MVFR CEILINGS...THEN MVFR CONDS
MAY BECOME DOMINATE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING THERE. LOOK FOR
SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KOFK AND KLNK...BUT PROBABLY REMAINING
VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN BUT DECREASE
WITH GUSTS ENDING LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1047 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN/SNOW
AND LOW CIGS THIN OUT AT ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW
IMPACTS WILL SHIFT INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN BTWN THE CONT DVD AND THE
NORTHERN MTS THRU ABOUT 04Z. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 35-40KT. A GAP WIND IS
ALSO LIKELY AROUND KABQ BTWN 20Z-00Z WITH A BRIEF PEAK NEAR 35KT
POSSIBLE...BUT NO AWW WARRANTED YET. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
TURN SKC TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS THERE HOWEVER CANNOT PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREA JUST YET SO WILL AWAIT LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1017 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS. ABOUT 5
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AROUND LOS ALAMOS
AND WHITE ROCK. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...BUT A STREAM OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NW AREAS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING
SNOW GOING IN THE JEMEZ AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SAN JUANS
DURING THE EVENING.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
130KT JET CORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR NARA VISA AND LOGAN NWWD TO NEAR ROY AND RATON. NMDOT CAMERA
AT RATON PASS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. WILL KEEP
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. BAND OF SNOW PROGGED
TO PIVOT WWD THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO POINTS WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SANGRES...INCLUDING WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN TAOS COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND NAM12
KEEP SNOW OUT OF ABQ METRO AS EAST WINDS BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON BUT HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAND INTACT. LOOKING
AT WIND ORIENTATION AND SPEED AT 700MB (~10K FT) FROM EACH
MODEL...TOUGH TO SEE HOW THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS
ABQ. AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN OR RAIN SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SE PLAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY EACH DAY ACROSS THE WEST BUT COOL SOMEWHAT
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NE PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NE NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED
THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WLY FLOW TO MONDAY AND ECMWF
HAS LOST THE WAVE ALTOGETHER. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (ENTERING THE WEST PACIFIC) TO GET
PROLONGED CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR BEFORE THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE. LATEST 15-DAY
GFSENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE OSCILLATION MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
(PHASE8) TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. WE SHALL SEE.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS.
THE COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A NEW WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED IMPACTS FROM A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TODAY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED...OR PERHAPS EVEN CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES SO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. GENERALLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON LOW-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
TODAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-514-516-523-529-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513-515-527-528-530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1017 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS. ABOUT 5
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AROUND LOS ALAMOS
AND WHITE ROCK. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...BUT A STREAM OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NW AREAS FROM THE NORTH KEEPING
SNOW GOING IN THE JEMEZ AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SAN JUANS
DURING THE EVENING.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...453 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH RAIN THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE BELOW 4000 FEET.
A MIXED-BAG OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND AT KFMN/KGUP. MOST SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS FORECAST
AT KLVS...WHERE SHORT-LIVED LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KABQ/KAEG THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE
RUNWAYS. IMPROVEMENT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. THE RETURN TO WINTER WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
130KT JET CORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NM THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NEAR NARA VISA AND LOGAN NWWD TO NEAR ROY AND RATON. NMDOT CAMERA
AT RATON PASS LOOKS LIKE HEAVY SNOW FALLING THERE. WILL KEEP
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. BAND OF SNOW PROGGED
TO PIVOT WWD THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO POINTS WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SANGRES...INCLUDING WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN TAOS COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL AND NAM12
KEEP SNOW OUT OF ABQ METRO AS EAST WINDS BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS
CANYON BUT HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAND INTACT. LOOKING
AT WIND ORIENTATION AND SPEED AT 700MB (~10K FT) FROM EACH
MODEL...TOUGH TO SEE HOW THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS
ABQ. AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAIN OR RAIN SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SE PLAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY EACH DAY ACROSS THE WEST BUT COOL SOMEWHAT
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NE PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.
A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EQUATE TO BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NE NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED
THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WLY FLOW TO MONDAY AND ECMWF
HAS LOST THE WAVE ALTOGETHER. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (ENTERING THE WEST PACIFIC) TO GET
PROLONGED CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR BEFORE THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE. LATEST 15-DAY
GFSENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE OSCILLATION MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
(PHASE8) TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC BY THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. WE SHALL SEE.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEST. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS.
THE COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A NEW WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED IMPACTS FROM A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TODAY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED...OR PERHAPS EVEN CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES SO LOWER
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. GENERALLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON LOW-TO-NO WETTING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
TODAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-514-516-523-529-531.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513-515-527-528-530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ511.
&&
$$
44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
249 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR NORTH OF DULUTH AT MID AFTN. SNOW HAS EXITED THE EASTERN
FCST AREA AFTER A NARROW AREA OF 6 INCH SNOWFALL NR ROSEAU-
WARROAD-LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. SOME DRYING NOTED COMING SOUTH
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER AND DRYING IS FCST VIA HRRR TO MOVE INTO
NW MN THIS EVENING. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL BE
HOWEVER. CLOUD BAND LOCATED IN ERN ND NORTH INTO PARTS OF MANITOBA
BTWN BRANDON AND WINNIPEG AND THIS CLOUD AREA IS MOVING SOUTH AND
MAY HELP KEEP MUCH OF ERN ND FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING. SO AT
FIRST SKY COVER TONIGHT MAY BE RATHER CHAOTIC. NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BUT ENOUGH COOLING TO GET LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S.
NEXT SHORT WAVE PRETTY WELL DEFINED MOVING INTO ECNTRL ALBERTA.
NO PRECIP YET NOTED WITH SYSTEM VIA OBS OR CANADIAN RADAR. BUT
THIS UPPER SYSTEM DOES STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
CNTRL ND 18Z-21Z PERIOD THEN INTO ERN SD WED EVENING. WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS WITH THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS IN AREA OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7 TO 7.5C/KM 700-500 MB)...CONCERN AGAIN
WILL THIS OCCUR AGAIN. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND DOES APPEAR MAIN
RISK IS CNTRL ND INTO ERN SD BRUSHING SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS
IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHC OF 1 INCH OF SNOW (JMS-ABR-ATY
REGION).
DID INCREASE POPS WED 12-18Z IN WRN FCST AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO
RRV WED AFTN/NIGHT. FAR ERN FCST AREA ON THE EDGE WITH SYSTEM AS
BEST AREAS FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
LIKELY A BIT UNDERDONE SO WENT A TAD HIGHER. BUT IF FULL SUN COULD
BE EVEN HIGHER.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SATURDAY
COULD EVEN BE WARMER THAN THE BLENDED SOLUTION HIGHS IF WE GET
SOME SUN OVER OUR NO SNOW AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PHASED AND
AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BRINGING DOWN A
STRONGER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. CONSIDERING THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE MUCH WARMER AND MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
WARMER BLENDED SOLUTION AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH. THINK THAT ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...LEAVING VIS MORE THAN 6SM AT ALL TAF SITES. THE IFR AND MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WILL
WATCH KDVL IN CASE THE CLEARING LINE GETS CLOSER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
HAVE SOME 3-5SM BR FORMING AT SOME SITES. THE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/JR
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
335 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTS FROM TN TO UPPER OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE...SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO LOW STATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EVENT WILL START
WITH RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
STRONG WINDS ARE SUGGESTED BY NAM AND RAP WITH 40-45 KNOTS AT
H925. MOST PART OF THE PRECIP WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WHILE
OTHERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT THAT COULD BE CONVECTIVE WITH
EVEN THUNDER INCLUDED.
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS PRODUCED HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WHERE TERRAIN STILL NEARLY SATURATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGEST NEARLY 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS. THIS WILL BE A PROLONG EVENT. PONDING OF WATER
ACROSS LOW LAYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE COMMON ON
WEDNESDAY.
USED A MULTIPLE MODEL BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FROM A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE IS RATHER SLOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WHILE THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY TO TRANSITION.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO PULL OUT BEFORE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS CAN OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS HIGH PRESSURE-DOMINANT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE A
QUICK HITTER WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. EXPECTING ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR
THE END...WHEN THE SHOWERS COULD TURN INTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE EXIT OF THE
MOISTURE.
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGS A COLORADO LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA
CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT BKW COULD LAST THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. MVFR LOW
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT SOME PLACES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS AROUND 60-65 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG STRONGEST RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY AND CEILING MAY GO LOWER AT BECKLEY IN
THE LIGHT RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M L M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES TODAY. A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTS FROM TN TO UPPER OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE...SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO LOW STATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EVENT WILL START
WITH RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
STRONG WINDS ARE SUGGESTED BY NAM AND RAP WITH 40-45 KNOTS AT
H925. MOST PART OF THE PRECIP WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WHILE
OTHERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT THAT COULD BE CONVECTIVE WITH
EVEN THUNDER INCLUDED.
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS PRODUCED HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WHERE TERRAIN STILL NEARLY SATURATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGEST NEARLY 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS. THIS WILL BE A PROLONG EVENT. PONDING OF WATER
ACROSS LOW LAYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE COMMON ON
WEDNESDAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THERE IS ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
CERTAINLY AN UNDERSTATEMENT. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT
MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DID LOWER
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS A BIT WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING LIKELY KEEPING RAINFALL TOTALS
LIMITED IN THOSE AREAS.
WE WILL LIKELY BE FACED WITH SEVERAL HAZARDS FROM FLOODING TO
HIGH WINDS TO EVEN WINTER WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND
COLD AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SHOULD KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG
LLJ. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LOWER
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE WEST VA LOWLANDS. HAVE HELD OFF IN
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
HWO...BUT IF THERE IS FLOODING IT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SATURATED SOILS COMBINED WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES.
AS MENTIONED...SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA WIDE ADVISORY WITH A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY. VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THERMAL PACKING WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT THIS
POINT...HAVE GENERALLY ARE FORECASTING 4 - 6 INCHES IN EASTERN
ZONES AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. WINTER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU ADD IN THE STRONG WINDS...BLOWING
SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL A CHALLENGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS HIGH PRESSURE-DOMINANT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE A
QUICK HITTER WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. EXPECTING ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR
THE END...WHEN THE SHOWERS COULD TURN INTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE EXIT OF THE
MOISTURE.
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGS A COLORADO LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA
CLIPPER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT BKW COULD LAST THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. MVFR LOW
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT SOME PLACES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS AROUND 60-65 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG STRONGEST RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY AND CEILING MAY GO LOWER AT BECKLEY IN
THE LIGHT RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES TODAY. A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTS FROM TN TO UPPER OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE...SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO LOW STATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EVENT WILL START
WITH RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
STRONG WINDS ARE SUGGESTED BY NAM AND RAP WITH 40-45 KNOTS AT
H925. MOST PART OF THE PRECIP WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WHILE
OTHERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT THAT COULD BE CONVECTIVE WITH
EVEN THUNDER INCLUDED.
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS PRODUCED HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WHERE TERRAIN STILL NEARLY SATURATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGEST NEARLY 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS. THIS WILL BE A PROLONG EVENT. PONDING OF WATER
ACROSS LOW LAYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE COMMON ON
WEDNESDAY.
USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THERE IS ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
CERTAINLY AN UNDERSTATEMENT. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT
MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DID LOWER
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS A BIT WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING LIKELY KEEPING RAINFALL TOTALS
LIMITED IN THOSE AREAS.
WE WILL LIKELY BE FACED WITH SEVERAL HAZARDS FROM FLOODING TO
HIGH WINDS TO EVEN WINTER WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND
COLD AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SHOULD KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG
LLJ. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LOWER
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE WEST VA LOWLANDS. HAVE HELD OFF IN
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
HWO...BUT IF THERE IS FLOODING IT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SATURATED SOILS COMBINED WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES.
AS MENTIONED...SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA WIDE ADVISORY WITH A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY. VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THERMAL PACKING WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT THIS
POINT...HAVE GENERALLY ARE FORECASTING 4 - 6 INCHES IN EASTERN
ZONES AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. WINTER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU ADD IN THE STRONG WINDS...BLOWING
SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL A CHALLENGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE KEPT THE SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR THURSDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
SHOWING AMPLE LIFT/RH INTO PART OF THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO VARIOUS SPOKES OF ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF WITH SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT. SOME COATINGS
ARE ENVISIONED OVER THE LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION CODED UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS THE WIND POTENTIAL. A STOUT 50 KT LLJ WILL ROTATE
THRU AND WITH A FAVORABLE CROSS FLOW AMID A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THINKING GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY FRIDAY BUT STILL LOOKING QUITE A
BIT OF STRATOCU AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DAY AND NIGHT. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
TAKING HOLD. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT BKW COULD LAST THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. MVFR LOW
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT SOME PLACES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS AROUND 60-65 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG STRONGEST RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY AND CEILING MAY GO LOWER AT BECKLEY IN
THE LIGHT RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1144 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN IS
SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY COUNTIES TOWARD
THE POCONOS. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS MIXING WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET AND A LIGHT DUSTING COULD OCCUR OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE CHANGE TO RAIN... WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH
IN SULLIVAN COUNTY POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST
EXPECTING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE STILL SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BRADFORD AND
WARREN... BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40... BUT MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
SFC LOW NEAR THE TX/LA COAST...WARM ADVECTION/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE RETREATING COLD SECTOR TODAY. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81/US-15 CORRIDOR PER
THE LATEST HRRR. COMPLEX BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB EFFECTS IN PLAY ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIXED PTYPES. THERE IS A
LOWER DEGREE OF CERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL
BE...WITH THE VERY NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE
ALREADY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIRES HRRR/NCAR/SSEO FOR SNOW/ICE
AMTS WHICH POINTED TOWARD A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION /AROUND 1
INCH MAX/ OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AND THIN
ICE GLAZE /LESS THAN 0.10 INCH/ PSBL INTO THE N-CENTRAL/ENDLESS
MTNS. HIGHER SNOW/ICE AMTS PROJECTED INTO THE POCONOS/NERN PA WHERE
PHI/BGM HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY.
A STRONG 850MB LLJ WILL BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT
WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN/FZDZ WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THE
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN MAY SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA INTO THE POCONOS/ENDLESS MTNS. MDL
TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 32F AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM WRN TN THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY ON DAY 2/WED...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. AFTER
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PCPN...EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PICK
UP WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD INCREASE TO
50+KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO WRN NY
AND TRANSPORT HI PWATS INTO CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY /MAINLY ELEVATED/ WHICH MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS BTWN 24/18Z AND 25/06Z. THE HIGH MSTR CONTENT AIR ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/SHORT-DURATION HEAVY
RAIN RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW 3HR FFG VALUES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL NOTE THIS IN HWO. WPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN ITS DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK. FOLLOWED WPC QPF
AMTS WHICH WERE BASED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z EC/NAM SOLUTIONS
AND SHOW WIDESPREAD 1+INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
TRACKING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD AFFORD A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES ON THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW AND DECAYING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMS ON DAY 3. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURS NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR LATER FRIDAY AND PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
COLDER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TO
CONTINUE DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM
PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HRRR AND SREF INDICATE IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KLNS BY THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SREF OUTPUT A SUPPORT A
LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CONDS AT KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KJST BY THIS EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SPOTTY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON...TUE
EVENING. TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL
PERIOD OF LGT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA OR PATCHY -FZDZ OVR THE
HIGH TERRAIN ARND KJST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. WINDY LATE.
THU...BECOMING WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
FRI...WINDY...ESP EAST. AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBY POSS W MTNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WI OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER THE
GULF COAST. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES NORTH.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE SHEARED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNTIL IT DOES SO...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND COULD CLIP THE SHORELINE
AROUND MANITOWOC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN VILAS CO. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME GUSTY. SOME GUSTS TO
30 OR 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND THE FOX
VALLEY. CONTINUED MILD TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE WEEKEND FORECAST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUM
SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH RESPECT TO THE EFFECTS OF
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDS/WEDS NGT. STILL ONLY EXPECTING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN EC WI ON WEDS/WEDS NGT...AND GALES ON LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM...SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
VILAS COUNTY THU/THU NGT.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
+2 TO +6 C ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GET WELL
INTO THE 40S IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
50 DEGREES AT THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRACK TAKING IT THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
IN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
LOW. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH COUPLED UPPER
JETS AND SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BEFORE THIS FRONT
ARRIVES...CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR OVER
NORTHEAST WI BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI AFTER 21Z AND WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINOR...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. DESPITE ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED...CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NNE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BECOME GUSTY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC