Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/22/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
946 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE 10 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGES AT THIS TIME
WERE TO DEW POINT TEMPS AND SKY COVER. SKIES ARE SUNNY NOW...BUT
CIRRO-STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH ADVECTS NORTH FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY MOVES OUT. CLOUD COVER AMOUNT FORECAST FOLLOWS
LATEST RAP UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS CLOSELY. OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY.
GFS LAMP MOS SUGGESTS FORECAST TEMPS ARE A TAD TOO WARM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TRENDS ARE AT TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
OVERALL...UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY.
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER MAV/ECS GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 60S
IN THE NYC/NJ METRO AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S MOST ELSEWHERE. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DRY AND WITH ONLY SOME SCT CLOUDS AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A QUICK MOVING H5 VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE APPROACH DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE MILD...BUT
NOT AS WARM AS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A QUICK MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 ENERGY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR SOUTH
ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THEN QUICKLY SLIDING APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH
OF THE BENCHMARK. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...THE TREND
HAS BEEN SOUTH WITH THE LOW...WITH A GLANCING OF LIFT AND PCPN LATE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...GFS...CMC...NAM...GEFS...AND THE 03Z SREF ALL SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS JUST IN HAS SHIFTED
THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH NO MEASURABLE PCPN OVER THE CWA.
POPS MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE TODAY.
TEMPS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL OVERNIGHT. 925 HPA ND 850 HPA
TEMPS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL
WILL BE MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY OVERCOME THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH ALL
OF THIS IN MIND...CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE NYC METRO.
PCPN EXITS BY DAY BREAK MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
RETURNING...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE.
PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LIKELY DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN LOW PASSES INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE
ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
VFR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-MON...VFR SUN. A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW SUN
NIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR EARLY MON WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN A HALF
INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEB 20
EWR....70/1939
BDR....54/1991*
NYC....69/1939*
LGA....63/1943
JFK....61/1949
ISP....54/1991
*ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
631 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA AS OF 11Z...AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY SURGED INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NYC...LONG ISLAND...AND SE CT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
TEMPS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN PA AND THE OHIO VALLEY ARE
WELL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. HRRR AND RAP PROFILES INDICATE
DECENT MIXING UP TO AROUND 950 HPA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WHICH
SHOULD ALSO BOOST TEMPERATURES UPWARD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR WITH
ONLY SOME FEW OR SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE WARMER MAV/ECS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BLENDS IN THE MOST HRRR/RAP
DATA YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NYC/NJ METRO AND MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S MOST ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HIGHS
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR THIS MORNING ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT
ENERGY BETWEEN H7 AND H5. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW ISOLATED
REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 13Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DRY AND WITH ONLY SOME SCT CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A QUICK MOVING H5 VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE APPROACH DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE MILD...BUT
NOT AS WARM AS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A QUICK MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 ENERGY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR SOUTH
ACROSS VIRGINA AND THEN QUICKLY SLIDING APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
THE BENCHMARK. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...THE TREND HAS
BEEN SOUTH WITH THE LOW...WITH A GLANCING OF LIFT AND PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...GFS...CMC...NAM...GEFS...AND THE 03Z SREF ALL SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS JUST IN HAS
SHIFTED THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER
THE CWA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY IF
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE TODAY.
TEMPS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL OVERNIGHT. 925 HPA ND 850 HPA
TEMPS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL
WILL BE MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY OVERCOME THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH ALL
OF THIS IN MIND...CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE NYC METRO.
PRECIP EXITS BY DAY BREAK MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
RETURNING...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE.
PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LIKELY DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN LOW PASSES INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE
ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT.
VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST 20-25 KT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH A FEW
KNOTS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-MON...VFR SUN. A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW SUN
NIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR EARLY MON WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE WATERS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE INCREASED TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALSO IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HOWEVER...SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS
TODAY THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN A HALF
INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEB 20
EWR....70/1939
BDR....54/1991*
NYC....69/1939*
LGA....63/1943
JFK....61/1949
ISP....54/1991
*ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
107 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. MILDER AIR WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH
OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. GETTING REPORTS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH.
HAVE LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS AREA
AS A WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS
AND MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY HAVE
STABILIZED OR HAVE BEGUN TO RISE. P-TYPES FORECAST IS COMPLICATED
AS HAVE TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S...PLUS HAVE SOME
WARMER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT. SO HAVE USED THE TOP DOWN APPROACH TO
CREATE THE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT EARLY. THEN...AS FORCING SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...WE EXPECT A PERIOD OF LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...THERE COULD BE PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. EVENTUALLY...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM NW
TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
SOME SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING NEARBY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WIDELY
VARYING ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS IN MOST AREAS...WITH 50S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...AND 45-50 TO THE N AND
W...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S. WITH A
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MAX
TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER IN LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM I-90
SOUTH...AND CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME 60S IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SAT NT-SUN...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT
NT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THEN...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AND/OR SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MINOR ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES COULD OCCUR THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-90 INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS...MAINLY MID 30S...EXCEPT FOR
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE 40S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MAX TEMPS COULD REACH 50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS TRENDED SOUTH OVERALL
COMPARED TO GUIDANCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...NOT READY TO
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...AND HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED CHC POPS FROM THE I-90/I-88 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS S AND E. P-TYPE MAY INITIALLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW LATER AT NIGHT. ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO 2 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED...GREATEST ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN TACONICS AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. FUTURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK COULD EASILY LEAD TO
GREATER AMTS...AND LARGER AREA OF SNOWFALL...WHICH COULD
COMPLICATE THE MON AM COMMUTE. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM WILL WILL START OUT
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN TO THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.
AFTER THAT HOWEVER...OUR WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME UNSETTLED AS NOT
ONE BUT AT LEAST TWO POTENTIAL GULF STORMS COULD IMPACT US.
KEEP IN MIND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FROM WEDNESDAY ON...WILL
BE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE COUNTRY...STRETCHING TO THE EAST COAST.
A FIRST WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH.
HOWEVER...ITS EXACT TRACK IS VERY MUCH IN PLAY. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF IT IS NOT ALL THE COLD...SO IT IS TOUGH CALL WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX.
THIS FIRST STORM LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND AS THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE
SAILS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THEN...A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP FROM THE GULF STATES ON
THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE 12Z EURO TAKES A MORE INLAND TRACK AND
IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE.
THE 12Z GEFS CONTINUE TO OFFER A HUGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBILITIES OF P-TYPES AND AMOUNTS WITH MAINLY THE FIRST STORM.
RIGHT NOW OUR BEST FORECAST WILL HAVE A LIKELY FOR A SNOW OR
WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE (50)
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE SECOND STORM...SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR LOOKS
TO FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS A THIRD STORM COULD FORM. AT THIS TIME...
WE FELL A THIRD STORM WOULD LIKELY STAY TO OUR EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START OUT RANGING FROM ABOUT 30 NORTHWEST...TO AROUND
40 SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...COOLING TO HIGHS AROUND 20 NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO AVERAGE IN THE 20S
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOWERING TO MAINLY THE TEENS
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SW QUEBEC
THIS MORNING WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO THE ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW MOVING
THROUGH WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN. AS THE
COLUMN GRADUALLY MOISTENS EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPACT KALB-
KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT. SOME LIGHT -FZRA MAY MIX
IN BRIEFLY AT KALB/KPSF PRIOR TO 12Z. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER 12Z/SAT WITH ANY RESIDUAL PCPN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF.
AS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GET INTO A WARM SECTOR...EXPECT THE
SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH THE EROSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND FROM KALB SOUTH...SOME LOW VFR
STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER AT KGFL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS 23Z/SAT. AT THIS
TIME...WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CIGS IN THE 4-8 KFT AGL RANGE.
LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE UNTIL 10-14Z AT
KGFL/KPSF/KPOU...WHERE THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS REMAIN 35-50 KTS...AND
THE SFC WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KTS. KALB CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE...SO NO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THERE.
WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 8-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT KALB. THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SW AT AROUND 10 KTS AROUND 00Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...SOME FROZEN...WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS AND LAKES.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION SOMETIME
BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD CONTAIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMTS.
OUR 4TH WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (ALBESFALY) FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WAS ISSUED ON FEBRUARY
18TH. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE
WINTER AND SPRING OF 2016 REMAINS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-038-
049-050-052>054-059>061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>042-047-048-051-058-082-083.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE ARE A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...BUT BASICALLY THE OVERALL PATTERN
CONSISTS OF PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ARRIVES OVER THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING EAST AND
MOVING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND KEEP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFF TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL COLUMN QUITE
WELL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT AT 870MB...WITH
MARKED DRYING ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OUR REGION
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION NOTED ABOVE ON THE KTBW SOUNDING. EARLIER
STRATUS UNDER THIS INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT TO A SCT-BKN CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DIURNAL MIXING WAS STRONG
ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO MIX PAST THE LEVEL OF TODAYS INVERSION...AND
IF THIS CAN OCCUR AGAIN...THEN WE WILL LIKELY MIX OUT MOST OF
THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ENTIRELY BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
FOR FEBRUARY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S. A FEW NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS MAY SEE UPPER
70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD...ONLY ACTING TO LIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FURTHER. THE
LIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING (GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHELF WATER TEMPS) FORCES A FEEBLE SEABREEZE (ALREADY SEEN IN A
FEW COASTAL OBS) TO DEVELOP AT THE BEACHES. THIS BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PENETRATE ALL THAT FAR INLAND...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SIMPLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST IS RATHER
QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL DIP A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY STILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DURING SUNDAY
WITH THIS CLOSER JET ENERGY...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY ACT TO POSSIBLY
FILTER THE SUN AT TIMES. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT.
THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH OF I-4...AND IN THE 50S FURTHER
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
BROAD TROUGHING INITIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S WILL GRADUALLY
SHARPEN AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROLL THROUGH WITH THE SECOND AND
MORE ROBUST IMPULSE DEEPENING INTO A LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
TO OHIO VALLEYS WED AND THU. THE TWO IMPULSES WILL PUSH TWO FRONTS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...THE FIRST MON-TUE AND THE SECOND WED AND
EARLY THU...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OUT OF THE STATE. THE
FRONTS WILL PROVIDE SOME MODEST RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDER-
STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL.
LATER THU THROUGH SAT: THE EASTERN TROUGHINESS EXITS TO THE EAST AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN STATES WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE GULF AND FL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
SOME. WIND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACH CAUTION
TO ADVISORY SPEEDS...THEN DIMINISH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD. CUMULUS BASES ARE AROUND
4-5KFT...AND THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT
TOWARD SUNSET. WILL BE WATCHING FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KLAL/KPGD.
AFTER ANY EARLY MORING VIS RESTRICTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH POSSIBLE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 57 74 59 76 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 57 78 60 80 / 0 10 10 20
GIF 55 77 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 56 71 56 75 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 51 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 59 73 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE ARE A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...BUT BASICALLY THE OVERALL PATTERN
CONSISTS OF PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ARRIVES OVER THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING EAST AND
MOVING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND KEEP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFF TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL COLUMN QUITE
WELL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT AT 870MB...WITH
MARKED DRYING ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OUR REGION
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION NOTED ABOVE ON THE KTBW SOUNDING. THE
LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION OVERTOP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR AREAS OF STRATUS TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND CAN
SEE THIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING INLAND FROM THE SPACE COAST INTO POLK COUNTY...WITH
OTHER AREAS CROSSING FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO PORTIONS OF
HIGHLANDS/LEE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL MIXING GETS
UNDERWAY SHOULD BE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SCT-BKN STRATOCU FIELD...AND EVENTUALLY A CUMULUS FIELD. DIURNAL
MIXING WAS STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO MIX PAST THE LEVEL OF TODAYS
INVERSION...AND IF THIS CAN OCCUR AGAIN...THEN WE WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ENTIRELY BY THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS. SO...WILL CALL THE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY FOR THOSE AREAS SEEING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE THINGS
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
AFTERNOON...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST WHERE LESS INTRUSION OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR FEBRUARY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S. A
FEW NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS MAY SEE UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY
ACTING TO LIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FURTHER. THE LIGHT GRADIENT AND
STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING (GIVEN THE CURRENT SHELF WATER TEMPS)
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEEBLE SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE BEACHES. THIS BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE ALL
THAT FAR INLAND...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS THEN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL DIP A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY STILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. MAY SEE AN SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DURING SUNDAY
WITH THIS CLOSER JET ENERGY...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY ACT TO POSSIBLY
FILTER THE SUN AT TIMES. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT.
THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH OF I-4...AND IN THE 50S FURTHER
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS DOWN BY
SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS ADVANCING WESTWARD NEAR KLAL AND
AROUND KFMY/KRSW...BUT CEILINGS ARE ABOVE AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
4KFT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND KLAL/KPGD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH POSSIBLE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 58 75 57 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 77 57 80 60 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 76 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 74 55 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 77 49 77 50 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 75 59 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND DRY
AIR MASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION. LATEST RADAR LOOP
STILL INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE BEYOND MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING A WARM SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LATE EVENING TEMPS STILL QUITE...RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR OH VALLEY...WITH
MODELS STILL INDICATING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SLIGHTLY
BACKING H5 HEIGHTS WITH AN INCREASE IN H85 WARM ADVECTION. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
QPF OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH BUT THESE AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN NEAR 0.4 OF AN
INCH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BECAUSE OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A WEDGE PATTERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE
MODELS HAVE QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS DEPICT HIGH
SHEAR WITH A 50- TO 60-KNOT H85 JET. THE MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST
ERODING THE WEDGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT TIME MAY BE
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 10 TO 30
PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE DECREASES TOWARDS MORNING WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN
GUIDANCE REGARDING ONSET OF POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TO NEAR
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVE
BUT THEY SHOULD REACH CAE/CUB AROUND 12Z AND THE OTHER TERMINALS
BY 14Z-15Z. AS PRECIPITATION EXPANDS OVER THE REGION A COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LOW MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
ESPECIALLY AT CAE/CUB. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED IN THE LIGHT RAIN
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME IFR VSBYS
AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CHANCE OF
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
833 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...A NARROW LINE OF VERY WEAK RETURNS WERE INDICATED
ON RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING...FROM MCCALL TO ROME OREGON. THERE
WERE NO REPORTS OF PRECIP AS THIS LINE WENT THROUGH BAKER CITY AND
BURNS...AND THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THE LINE AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT THROUGH SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE
UPDATED ACCORDINGLY...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS ON
MONDAY...PRIMARILY EAST OF BOISE /AND INCLUDING MOUNTAIN
HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS/ WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH MID-HIGH SCT-BKN CLOUDS...WILL SEE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WILL EXIT SW IDAHO BY AROUND MON/18Z. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY WILL PICK
UP TO 20 KTS...GUSTS TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE WSW BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 20-30 KTS...BECOMING NW BY
MON/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHED 50 OR MILDER ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND OWYHEE COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES...COOLER TEMPS /IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40/...LOWER SNOW LEVELS /AROUND 4500-5K FT MSL/...AND
ADVANCING CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAKENING
ZONE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SW OREGON. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AN AXIS FROM MCCALL THROUGH ONTARIO 8-10 PM
AND SW ID IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG
WITH HRRR INDICATES WEAKENING...BUT A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
ALONG I-84 SO HAVE KEPT A VERY LOW POP VALLEYS. QPF IN THE
MOUNTAIN IS ALSO STILL RATHER LOW WITH AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE MTNS
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR AN HOUR ON TWO ON THE
FRONT AND ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BUT CAPE
IS LOW AROUND 100 J/KG AND TIMING IS POOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY POST FRONTAL UPPER WINDS TURN W TO NW AND WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT ENOUGH FLOW AND MIXING FOR 15-25 MPH
WINDS /LOCALLY 30-40 MPH MUO-JER/ MONDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. A FEW MTN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG NW FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
ITS AXIS NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
EVENT IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AND WEAKENING TO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PASSING
CLOUD COVER. PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ARRIVE
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH IT FURTHER OUT IN TIME
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON A WELL ESTABLISHED CHANGE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
243 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE`VE ALREADY SEE ONE STORM
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LAST NIGHT. A
SECONDARY ONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO. AHEAD OF
IT...WE ARE SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. RIGHT NOW NOT MUCH IS FALLING AT LOWEST
ELEVATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR...SO MOST WHAT OCCURS THIS MORNING
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
NORTHERN END OF TODAY`S WAVE WILL SKIRT THE DIVIDE AND KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AROUND ISLAND PARK AND THE MOUNTAINS DOWN TO DRIGGS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY TAKES
HOLD. DON`T EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO HOLD LONG AT ALL...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WEAK INVERSIONS SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS PART OF THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO HIT
THAT PRETTY HARD AND ESPECIALLY NOT ENOUGH TO GO WITH EVEN PATCHY
FOG.
THE MODELS START HEADING DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AT THIS POINT. THE
NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY WIMPY WITH THE FIRST STORM SWEEPING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT..AND PRODUCES A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD
SHOT OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE. WE WENT WITH THE DRIER IDEA AND ALSO
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AS SHOWN WITH THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
ECMWF. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WITH A SYSTEM DRIVING MORE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE NAM
WAS PRETTY MUCH DRY ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN MAY BE TRENDING THE
OTHER WAY. FOR NOW...KEEP WITH A CONSERVATIVE CHANCE EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT`S GOING
TO HAPPEN. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY. KEYES
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A SHORT LIVED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FROM MONIDA PASS TO ABOUT
VICTOR. ESTIMATE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK REMAIN ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. RS
&&
.AVIATION...BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS MOVING AWAY FROM KBYI AND KPIH. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN FAVORS SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH RADAR
IMAGERY. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-15 KTS AND GUSTY AT KBYI...KPIH AND
KIDA THROUGH 21/01Z. SOME INCREASED SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS MAY GIVE
RISE TO PATCHY FOG IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SUNDAY MORNING. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1112 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Dense fog across the southeast CWA has largely eroded, with
visible satellite imagery showing what`s left from about Olney to
Lawrenceville and fading fast. Sunshine is abundant elsewhere, and
RAP model humidity plots showing little in the way of clouds until
mid afternoon, when a slow increase occurs from the south.
Temperatures have shot up quickly in most areas, already in the
mid 50s in most areas west of US-51. Have increased high
temperatures by a few degrees in most areas, with temperatures
once again near record highs close to 70 degrees over the
southwest CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary lies just south of I-70 corridor early this
morning. Surface temperature/dew point spreads in the vicinity of
this boundary are pretty much nonexistent, and this has resulted in
fog expanding and thickening across the area. The past few runs of
the HRRR have seemed to grab onto this fog, and each run is more
pessimistic on visibilities than the prior run. Based on the latest
visibility and HRRR trends, plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. The cirrus shield overhead is substantial enough to make
it difficult to see the areal extent of the fog, but obviously not
thick enough to help prevent its development. Expect the fog to burn
off after sunrise through both diurnal effects and increasing
southwesterly winds.
Aside from the early morning fog in the southeast, a quiet weather
day is expected across central and southeast Illinois. One more very
mild day (for late February) is anticipated, with most areas topping
out in the 60s. While these readings will be at least a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, it should feel nicer outside due to winds
being much lighter.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
After another unseasonably mild day today across central and
southeast IL with a few sites approaching record highs, temps will
be cooling during early and middle part of next week. 00Z models
push a cold front southward toward Peoria at 00Z/6 pm today, to I-70
by 06Z/midnight tonight and through southeast IL during overnight.
1009 mb surface low pressure over SW KS to drop into north
central OK by sunset today and then lift toward the southern tip
of IL by 12Z/6 am Sunday, and then into northeast KY at 18Z/noon
Sunday. Some increasing moisture and elevated instability into
southern counties tonight with chances of showers from I-72 south
and isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL along and south of a
Shelbyville to Terre Haute line. SPC day1 outlook even has
marginal risk (5%) of hail SW of Clay county tonight. Lows
tonight range from mid 30s northern counties to low to mid 40s in
southeast IL. Chance of rain showers in southeast IL Sunday
morning then dry across area and skies becoming partly sunny. NNW
winds brings cooler highs Sunday ranging from upper 40s ne CWA to
lower 50s SW CWA with mid 50s along and south of highway 50 in
southeast IL.
Canadian high pressure settles SE into the Great Lakes during
Sunday night and Monday along with upper level trof digging into
the area. This continues cooler temps with highs Monday in the low
to mid 40s except upper 40s in southeast IL with partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Highs Tue in the mid to upper 40s with dry
conditions to continue during day Tue.
Extended models are showing a stronger southern stream storm system
developing over the southern plains by Tue evening and deepening
surface low pressure ne into the central Appalachians/eastern Ohio
river valley Wed night. This to bring a chance of rain/snow over
southeast IL Tue night and eastern IL Wed and possibly lingering
near Wabash river valley Wed evening. GEM keeps qpf southeast of CWA
but GFS and ECMWF have trended further west with qpf fields and
blended between these later 2 model solutions. Temps cool further on
Wed/Thu with highs in upper 30s/lower 40s, with southeast IL mid 40s
on Wed. A deep upper level trof over the eastern U.S. late next week
brings below normal temps next Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 30s to
near 40F with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Clouds expected to
start moving in this evening from the south, as an area of low
pressure rides along a frontal boundary just north of the Ohio
River. It currently appears any associated precipitation will be
south of the central Illinois TAF sites, with ceilings generally
around 10,000 feet. West/southwest winds today will trend more to
the north mid to late evening as the low moves past.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
923 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Dense fog across the southeast CWA has largely eroded, with
visible satellite imagery showing what`s left from about Olney to
Lawrenceville and fading fast. Sunshine is abundant elsewhere, and
RAP model humidity plots showing little in the way of clouds until
mid afternoon, when a slow increase occurs from the south.
Temperatures have shot up quickly in most areas, already in the
mid 50s in most areas west of US-51. Have increased high
temperatures by a few degrees in most areas, with temperatures
once again near record highs close to 70 degrees over the
southwest CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary lies just south of I-70 corridor early this
morning. Surface temperature/dew point spreads in the vicinity of
this boundary are pretty much nonexistent, and this has resulted in
fog expanding and thickening across the area. The past few runs of
the HRRR have seemed to grab onto this fog, and each run is more
pessimistic on visibilities than the prior run. Based on the latest
visibility and HRRR trends, plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. The cirrus shield overhead is substantial enough to make
it difficult to see the areal extent of the fog, but obviously not
thick enough to help prevent its development. Expect the fog to burn
off after sunrise through both diurnal effects and increasing
southwesterly winds.
Aside from the early morning fog in the southeast, a quiet weather
day is expected across central and southeast Illinois. One more very
mild day (for late February) is anticipated, with most areas topping
out in the 60s. While these readings will be at least a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, it should feel nicer outside due to winds
being much lighter.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
After another unseasonably mild day today across central and
southeast IL with a few sites approaching record highs, temps will
be cooling during early and middle part of next week. 00Z models
push a cold front southward toward Peoria at 00Z/6 pm today, to I-70
by 06Z/midnight tonight and through southeast IL during overnight.
1009 mb surface low pressure over SW KS to drop into north
central OK by sunset today and then lift toward the southern tip
of IL by 12Z/6 am Sunday, and then into northeast KY at 18Z/noon
Sunday. Some increasing moisture and elevated instability into
southern counties tonight with chances of showers from I-72 south
and isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL along and south of a
Shelbyville to Terre Haute line. SPC day1 outlook even has
marginal risk (5%) of hail SW of Clay county tonight. Lows
tonight range from mid 30s northern counties to low to mid 40s in
southeast IL. Chance of rain showers in southeast IL Sunday
morning then dry across area and skies becoming partly sunny. NNW
winds brings cooler highs Sunday ranging from upper 40s ne CWA to
lower 50s SW CWA with mid 50s along and south of highway 50 in
southeast IL.
Canadian high pressure settles SE into the Great Lakes during
Sunday night and Monday along with upper level trof digging into
the area. This continues cooler temps with highs Monday in the low
to mid 40s except upper 40s in southeast IL with partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Highs Tue in the mid to upper 40s with dry
conditions to continue during day Tue.
Extended models are showing a stronger southern stream storm system
developing over the southern plains by Tue evening and deepening
surface low pressure ne into the central Appalachians/eastern Ohio
river valley Wed night. This to bring a chance of rain/snow over
southeast IL Tue night and eastern IL Wed and possibly lingering
near Wabash river valley Wed evening. GEM keeps qpf southeast of CWA
but GFS and ECMWF have trended further west with qpf fields and
blended between these later 2 model solutions. Temps cool further on
Wed/Thu with highs in upper 30s/lower 40s, with southeast IL mid 40s
on Wed. A deep upper level trof over the eastern U.S. late next week
brings below normal temps next Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 30s to
near 40F with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A
disturbance/frontal boundary will push across the area tonight,
bringing thicker, but still VFR level CIGs to the area. Also, west
to southwest winds should trend light/variable with the front in
the area tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
558 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary lies just south of I-70 corridor early this
morning. Surface temperature/dew point spreads in the vicinity of
this boundary are pretty much nonexistent, and this has resulted in
fog expanding and thickening across the area. The past few runs of
the HRRR have seemed to grab onto this fog, and each run is more
pessimistic on visibilities than the prior run. Based on the latest
visibility and HRRR trends, plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. The cirrus shield overhead is substantial enough to make
it difficult to see the areal extent of the fog, but obviously not
thick enough to help prevent its development. Expect the fog to burn
off after sunrise through both diurnal effects and increasing
southwesterly winds.
Aside from the early morning fog in the southeast, a quiet weather
day is expected across central and southeast Illinois. One more very
mild day (for late February) is anticipated, with most areas topping
out in the 60s. While these readings will be at least a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, it should feel nicer outside due to winds
being much lighter.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
After another unseasonably mild day today across central and
southeast IL with a few sites approaching record highs, temps will
be cooling during early and middle part of next week. 00Z models
push a cold front southward toward Peoria at 00Z/6 pm today, to I-70
by 06Z/midnight tonight and through southeast IL during overnight.
1009 mb surface low pressure over sw KS to drop into north central
OK by sunset today and then lift toward the southern tip of IL by
12Z/6 am Sunday, and then into northeast KY at 18Z/noon Sunday. Some
increasing moisture and elevated instability into southern counties
tonight with chances of showers from I-72 south and isolated
thunderstorms in southeast IL along and south of a Shelbville to
Terre Haute line. SPC day1 outlook even has marginal risk (5%) of
hail sw of Clay county tonight. Lows tonight range from mid 30s
northern counties to low to mid 40s in southeast IL. Chance of rain
showers in southeast IL Sunday morning then dry across area and
skies becoming partly sunny. NNW winds brings cooler highs Sunday
ranging from upper 40s ne CWA to lower 50s sw CWA with mid 50s along
and south of highway 50 in southeast IL.
Canadian high pressure settles se into the Great Lakes during Sunday
night and Monday along with upper level trof digging into the area.
This continues cooler temps with highs Monday in the low to mid 40s
except upper 40s in southeast IL with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs Tue in the mid to upper 40s with dry conditions to continue
during day Tue.
Extended models are showing a stronger southern stream storm system
developing over the southern plains by Tue evening and deepening
surface low pressure ne into the central Appalachians/eastern Ohio
river valley Wed night. This to bring a chance of rain/snow over
southeast IL Tue night and eastern IL Wed and possibly lingering
near Wabash river valley Wed evening. GEM keeps qpf southeast of CWA
but GFS and ECWMF have trended further west with qpf fields and
blended between these later 2 model solutions. Temps cool further on
Wed/Thu with highs in upper 30s/lower 40s, with southeast IL mid 40s
on Wed. A deep upper level trof over the eastern U.S. late next week
brings below normal temps next Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 30s to
near 40F with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A
disturbance/frontal boundary will push across the area tonight,
bringing thicker, but still VFR level CIGs to the area. Also, west
to southwest winds should trend light/variable with the front in
the area tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary lies just south of I-70 corridor early this
morning. Surface temperature/dew point spreads in the vicinity of
this boundary are pretty much nonexistent, and this has resulted in
fog expanding and thickening across the area. The past few runs of
the HRRR have seemed to grab onto this fog, and each run is more
pessimistic on visibilities than the prior run. Based on the latest
visibility and HRRR trends, plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. The cirrus shield overhead is substantial enough to make
it difficult to see the areal extent of the fog, but obviously not
thick enough to help prevent its development. Expect the fog to burn
off after sunrise through both diurnal effects and increasing
southwesterly winds.
Aside from the early morning fog in the southeast, a quiet weather
day is expected across central and southeast Illinois. One more very
mild day (for late February) is anticipated, with most areas topping
out in the 60s. While these readings will be at least a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, it should feel nicer outside due to winds
being much lighter.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
After another unseasonably mild day today across central and
southeast IL with a few sites approaching record highs, temps will
be cooling during early and middle part of next week. 00Z models
push a cold front southward toward Peoria at 00Z/6 pm today, to I-70
by 06Z/midnight tonight and through southeast IL during overnight.
1009 mb surface low pressure over sw KS to drop into north central
OK by sunset today and then lift toward the southern tip of IL by
12Z/6 am Sunday, and then into northeast KY at 18Z/noon Sunday. Some
increasing moisture and elevated instability into southern counties
tonight with chances of showers from I-72 south and isolated
thunderstorms in southeast IL along and south of a Shelbville to
Terre Haute line. SPC day1 outlook even has marginal risk (5%) of
hail sw of Clay county tonight. Lows tonight range from mid 30s
northern counties to low to mid 40s in southeast IL. Chance of rain
showers in southeast IL Sunday morning then dry across area and
skies becoming partly sunny. NNW winds brings cooler highs Sunday
ranging from upper 40s ne CWA to lower 50s sw CWA with mid 50s along
and south of highway 50 in southeast IL.
Canadian high pressure settles se into the Great Lakes during Sunday
night and Monday along with upper level trof digging into the area.
This continues cooler temps with highs Monday in the low to mid 40s
except upper 40s in southeast IL with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs Tue in the mid to upper 40s with dry conditions to continue
during day Tue.
Extended models are showing a stronger southern stream storm system
developing over the southern plains by Tue evening and deepening
surface low pressure ne into the central Appalachians/eastern Ohio
river valley Wed night. This to bring a chance of rain/snow over
southeast IL Tue night and eastern IL Wed and possibly lingering
near Wabash river valley Wed evening. GEM keeps qpf southeast of CWA
but GFS and ECWMF have trended further west with qpf fields and
blended between these later 2 model solutions. Temps cool further on
Wed/Thu with highs in upper 30s/lower 40s, with southeast IL mid 40s
on Wed. A deep upper level trof over the eastern U.S. late next week
brings below normal temps next Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 30s to
near 40F with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the day tomorrow, as high
pressure builds across northern Illinois. The cold front will
stall out across central Illinois and become a stationary front
tomorrow. However, limited moisture along the front will prevent
any precipitation until at least 00z. The NAM and GFS show little
to no rain through 06z, but the ECMWF and Canadian GEM show rain
between 00z-06z. We left off a mention of precip in the TAFS after
00z for now, but did introduce some MVFR clouds for the southern
terminals of SPI, DEC and CMI.
LLWS looks likely after 09z tonight as a LLJ cranks up to 45-50kt at
925mb. RAP, NAM and GFS bufkit soundings point toward rapid speed
changes over a very short vertical distance. LLWS conditions
should dissipate after 16z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL
STALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
1535Z UPDATE...HAPPY SATURDAY! VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS
THE RURAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CENTRAL INDIANA
STILL ON TAP FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ZFPIND
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ALREADY UPDATED AND OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH LOTS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE
VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A
VERY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE
IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE
RESULT AGAIN TODAY. BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH
ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND TODAY AND
GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND AS SUCH
FAR MORE POPS WILL BE REQUIRED.
MAY SEE SOME SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT
THIS CHANCE IN SEVERAL PERIODS.
BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL AND FEW
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AT BMG...BEFORE A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF SITES APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WILL
INCLUDE A SCT025 DECK AT IND/HUF AS AN INDICATION OF THIS POTENTIAL.
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
THUNDER MENTION AT BMG.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT GUSTY TODAY. GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL
STALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
1535Z UPDATE...HAPPY SATURDAY! VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS
THE RURAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CENTRAL INDIANA
STILL ON TAP FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ZFPIND
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ALREADY UPDATED AND OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH LOTS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE
VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A
VERY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE
IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE
RESULT AGAIN TODAY. BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH
ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND TODAY AND
GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
A ROBUST UPPER LOW MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING WEST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS TRACK PRODUCES
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES...TO THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD TREND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION AND IF TREND
CONTINUES MAY NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS. FOR PTYPE
GENERALLY USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHERE RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AT BMG...BEFORE A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF SITES APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WILL
INCLUDE A SCT025 DECK AT IND/HUF AS AN INDICATION OF THIS POTENTIAL.
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
THUNDER MENTION AT BMG.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT GUSTY TODAY. GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1112 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL
STALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
1535Z UPDATE...HAPPY SATURDAY! VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS
THE RURAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CENTRAL INDIANA
STILL ON TAP FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ZFPIND
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ALREADY UPDATED AND OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH LOTS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE
VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A
VERY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE
IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE
RESULT AGAIN TODAY. BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH
ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND TODAY AND
GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
A ROBUST UPPER LOW MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING WEST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS TRACK PRODUCES
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES...TO THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD TREND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION AND IF TREND
CONTINUES MAY NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS. FOR PTYPE
GENERALLY USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHERE RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
KHUF AND KBMG WILL HAVE SOME IFR AND LOWER FOG TO START OUT WITH
BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND 13-15Z. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING.
TONIGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT KBMG AND KHUF. MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS KIND. COULD SEE A
FEW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO
THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LOTS
OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A VERY WARM
AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE RESULT AGAIN TODAY.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND
TODAY AND GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
A ROBUST UPPER LOW MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING WEST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS TRACK PRODUCES
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES...TO THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD TREND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION AND IF TREND
CONTINUES MAY NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS. FOR PTYPE
GENERALLY USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHERE RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
KHUF AND KBMG WILL HAVE SOME IFR AND LOWER FOG TO START OUT WITH
BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND 13-15Z. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING.
TONIGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT KBMG AND KHUF. MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS KIND. COULD SEE A
FEW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO
THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LOTS
OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A VERY WARM
AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE RESULT AGAIN TODAY.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND
TODAY AND GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
A ROBUST UPPER LOW MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING WEST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS TRACK PRODUCES
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES...TO THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD TREND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION AND IF TREND
CONTINUES MAY NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS. FOR PTYPE
GENERALLY USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHERE RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT KBMG...WHERE DEW POINT
SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES AND VISIBILITY HAS ALREADY FALLEN
TO 6SM. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT UPDATE KHUF BUT IT IS POSSIBLE COULD
NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBY THERE AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OR PROLONGED/WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS 220-240 DEGREES AT 6-10 KTS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME
12-14 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE GUSTS 18-22 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY AS THEY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK NORTHEAST. THIS BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SETTLE WITH MOST GUSTS CAPPED AT 25 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO FURTHER
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING. AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE NPW AND
UPDATED THE HWO/ZFP. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAKE OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT. DID ADD A TOUCH OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER THE
LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM12. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE
NIGHT LEADING TO MILD CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...MEANING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS PER THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND OBS/TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO
THE MID 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WILL DECREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF TURBULENT MIXING AND WIND SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON BLACK
MOUNTAIN AND SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INTO THIS EVENING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT.
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SHALLOW OMEGA PROFILES AND SATURATING LOWER LEVELS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP LAYER LIFT/SATURATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL SEE MOISTURE HANG UP ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN A TYPICAL CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW
REGIME ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. QUICK-PACED ZONAL FLOW
AIDED BY A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL DRAW THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THUS
INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S SATURDAY AND MID 50S-LOW 60S SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS RIVALING CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID 40S-LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND
UPPER 40S-MID 50S SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS RAINY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FIRST OF MANY WAVES SCOOTS BY TO OUR
SE.
QUITE A COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD RELATING TO
MULTIPLE WAVES/LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
VARIED GREATLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE OF INTEREST CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EAST PAC NEAR
26N/132W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...DEEPEN OVER THE GULF...FORM A SFC LOW...AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD/APPALACHIANS. AS THIS PROCESS
OCCURS...A TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND
EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FEATURE FROM THE EAST PAC.
TUESDAY/S WAVE NOW LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
AND STAYS MOSTLY SUBDUED TO THE SOUTH...TURNING THE FOCUS TO THE
LOW THAT DROPS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY...DEEPENS
OVER TEXAS...THEN LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH
POSSIBLE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT LIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR LOW PATHS WITH THE GFS BEING A
SLOWER...STRONGER...AND WETTER SOLUTION. AS THIS LOW LIFTS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE REINFORCES THE PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST SO HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64...WHERE CEILINGS ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANOTHER
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TRAVELING ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
203 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY AS THEY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK NORTHEAST. THIS BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SETTLE WITH MOST GUSTS CAPPED AT 25 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO FURTHER
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING. AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE NPW AND
UPDATED THE HWO/ZFP. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAKE OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT. DID ADD A TOUCH OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER THE
LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM12. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE
NIGHT LEADING TO MILD CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...MEANING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS PER THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND OBS/TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO
THE MID 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WILL DECREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF TURBULENT MIXING AND WIND SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON BLACK
MOUNTAIN AND SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INTO THIS EVENING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT.
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SHALLOW OMEGA PROFILES AND SATURATING LOWER LEVELS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP LAYER LIFT/SATURATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL SEE MOISTURE HANG UP ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN A TYPICAL CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW
REGIME ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. QUICK-PACED ZONAL FLOW
AIDED BY A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL DRAW THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THUS
INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S SATURDAY AND MID 50S-LOW 60S SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS RIVALING CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID 40S-LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND
UPPER 40S-MID 50S SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME TO ANY TYPE OF CONSENSUS ON SOLUTIONS
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR. CONSEQUENTLY OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
LOWER THAN USUAL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A
LESS PROGRESSIVE WESTERN RIDGE...EASTERN TROUGH ORIENTATION.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT MEAN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY DY3...TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
TRACKING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...FIRST SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY OVER A STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY EVEN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THE FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE QPF...PRODUCING NEARLY THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN AN OUTLIER WHEN
COMPARED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE THE FRONTAL
ZONES LIFTS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER APPROACHING SFC WAVE. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ONLY GENERATE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA. A GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY KEEP SEVERAL OF OUR STREAMS
AND RIVERS RUNNING HIGH FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.
THEREAFTER FOCUS TURNS TO POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER(S) EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR
MORE SFC LOWS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT TRACKS HAVE BEEN AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...OR GULF STREAM. MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY HAVING TROUBLE
NEGOTIATING ENERGY TRAVELING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AT LEAST
UNTIL MODELS ARE ABLE TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE NO SOLID TRENDS TO GUIDE THE FORECAST ONE WAY OR ANOTHER WITH
RESPECT TO NEXT WEEK/S WEATHER. THEREFORE FEEL IT IS BEST TO
CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL COOL BACK DOWN FROM VERY WARM
60S ON SUNDAY TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS...OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS
WILL ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT COOLER CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. BUT BASED ON THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WE CAN GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EACH DAY...AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. OF COURSE EXPECT AN ADJUSTMENT IN THESE TEMPS ONCE
THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE IN TIMING THE UPCOMING DISTURBANCES THROUGH
OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64...WHERE CEILINGS ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANOTHER
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TRAVELING ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
615 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
614 PM UPDATE...THE LAST OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE BY 8-9 PM THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY
GOOD HANDLE ON AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES JUST WEST
OF QUEBEC CITY ARE ALREADY IN THE TEENS EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE
SHAPE, WITH ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST, ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, AND MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ON MONDAY
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW
TO MID TEENS NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO CWA MON NGT WITH CLR SKIES EXPECTED.
THIS WL CAUSE WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVRNGT AND LIKELY SEEING NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGITS ACRS NRN ZONES. H9 TEMPS PROGGED TO DIP DOWN TO NR
-20C PER LATEST NAM AND GFS. CANNOT RULE OUT A -20 READING AT SOME
POINT DRG THE NIGHTTIME IN THE NORTH WOODS THO NO GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THIS ATTM.
HIGH WL BUILD EAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON TUE WITH SRLY FLOW DRAWING
IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. H5 FLOW WL BE FAIRLY ZONAL BFR
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL LTR IN THE PD AS H5 LOW GETS WRAPPED UP IN
THE OH VLY AT THE END OF THE PD.
BY WED MRNG EXPECT OVERRUNNING TO BE ONGOING OVR SRN HALF OF CWA.
TEMPS WARM QUICKLY ABV FRZG BY 18Z WED ACRS DOWNEAST AND CNTRL SXNS.
VRY BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW IN THE MRNG BFR QUICKLY SWITCHING OVR TO ALL
RAIN DRG THE AFTN. MAY BE A PD OF FRZG RAIN AS WARM AIR IS DRAWN IN
ALOFT ON INCREASING LLJ BUT TOO FAR OUT TO NARROW DOWN A TIMEFRAME
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN THUS WL KEEP A GENERIC RA/SN MIX AND WL REVISE AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SUB-980 MB LOW TRACKING TO THE WEST OF
CWA TO START THE EXNTDD. THIS INCLUDES ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
12Z GFS AND EC INDICATE HEAVIEST QPF AMNTS WL LKLY FALL FM THE
BANGOR REGION AND UP TO THE NORTHEAST, SIMILAR TO THE EVENT LAST
WEEK. MUCH LIKE THE PRIOR EVENT, H9 WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50-60KTS
THUR AFTN. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS EVENT MAX WINDS, ALONG WITH A SWELL
FM THE SOUTHEAST, APPEARS AS THO IT WILL CORRESPOND TO HIGH TIDE.
MAX TEMPS ON THUR WL ONCE AGAIN APPCH L50S IN DOWNEAST AND U40S OVR
THE NORTH. THIS WL LKLY BE ANOTHER ALL RAIN EVENT BFR ENUF COLD AIR
WRAPS IN BEHIND SYSTEM TO SWITCH PCPN BACK TO SNOW BY FRI MRNG OVR
NRN SXNS OF AREA.
EXPECT PCPN TO END AS A PD OF SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT AS UPR LVL TROF
SCOOTS THRU WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS. ANOTHER
PCPN-PRODUCER LOOKS TO MV IN NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THRU WED MRNG. MVFR WILL THEN
WORK UP INTO SRN TERMINALS BY 12Z WED AND INTO NORTHERN SITES BY
MID-MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW MVFR/IFR THRU THE END OF
THE PERIOD IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FEET ON
THE COASTAL WATERS, AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM: WIND AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WED MORNING. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. SERLY SWELL WILL
BRING SEAS TO +5FT WED AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS, ALONG WITH SERLY SWELL, MAY
CORRESPOND WITH HIGH TIDE.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE SNOW DEPTH AT CARIBOU THIS EVENING IS DOWN TO ONLY
6 INCHES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW DEPTH MAY DROP TO LESS THAN
AN INCH BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT
WOULD BE ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN HISTORY THAT THE SNOW DEPTH
DROPPED TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN LATE FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE ONLY
TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS IN 1981 WHEN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF VERY
MILD WEATHER CAUSED ALL OF THE SNOW TO MELT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/FARRAR
MARINE...CB/DUDA/FARRAR
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
618 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MINOR UPDATE TO THE WEATHER TYPE BY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW THROUGH
15Z...THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR MORE CLOUDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH MN AT 08Z WHILE THE SFC LOW
THAT PLAGUED THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS IN EASTERN ONTARIO. A SFC TROF
WAS LOCATED OVER NE MN ALONG THE IRON RANGE. TEMPS NORTH OF THE TROF
WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...WHILE SOUTH OF THE TROF TEMPS WERE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME LIGHT PCPN WAS OCCURRING ALONG
THE TROF IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROF. MAINLY SNOW WAS FOUND NORTH OF THE TROF...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ALONG THE TROF...AND SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE TROF IN THE
AREA OF HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS. EXPECT THIS BATCH OF PCPN TO END
QUICKLY AS THE FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
NEXT BATCH OF PCPN ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH A POTENT
LITTLE VORT MAX CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN BY
MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF FLATTENS
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX DISSOLVES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIGHT RAIN
FROM THE TWIN PORTS EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MORE LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY
WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS AS A WEAK...BUT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
CLIPS THIS AREA. WITH COLDER AIR LOCATED OVER THIS AREA...THE PTYPE
WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
NORTHERN MN. THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM ANOTHER PIECE OF
FAST MOVING ENERGY GLANCING THE REGION IN A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THERE IS A GROWING OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WIND DIRECTION
OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AFFECT FETCH AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS AMOUNTS. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE OVER THE GOGEBIC
RANGE.
ON SUNDAY...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES OVER THE REGION AS THE
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER ALL BUT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO THESE FEATURES. PLUS...THE WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE NE BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TWIN PORTS AND SOME OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE TROF AND COLD FRONT EXIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS
LOWERING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE NE WIND PERSISTS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE CUT
LOWS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WE HAVE LOWS BELOW ZERO.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE...BUT LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL.
A COUPLE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL WAA WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE COULD
BE A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP INTO THE TWENTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW/LIGHT RAIN
AND POSSIBLE SLEET TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AREA RADARS SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS. WE WENT
CLOSER TO THE RAP WHICH KEEPS CEILINGS IN LONGER.
A SECOND WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH
IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 19 26 8 / 40 20 40 10
INL 34 9 20 -2 / 40 20 0 0
BRD 37 19 28 11 / 0 20 20 0
HYR 38 22 30 7 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 40 22 28 9 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
546 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH MN AT 08Z WHILE THE SFC LOW
THAT PLAGUED THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS IN EASTERN ONTARIO. A SFC TROF
WAS LOCATED OVER NE MN ALONG THE IRON RANGE. TEMPS NORTH OF THE TROF
WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...WHILE SOUTH OF THE TROF TEMPS WERE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME LIGHT PCPN WAS OCCURRING ALONG
THE TROF IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROF. MAINLY SNOW WAS FOUND NORTH OF THE TROF...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ALONG THE TROF...AND SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE TROF IN THE
AREA OF HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS. EXPECT THIS BATCH OF PCPN TO END
QUICKLY AS THE FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
NEXT BATCH OF PCPN ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH A POTENT
LITTLE VORT MAX CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN BY
MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF FLATTENS
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX DISSOLVES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIGHT RAIN
FROM THE TWIN PORTS EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MORE LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY
WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS AS A WEAK...BUT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
CLIPS THIS AREA. WITH COLDER AIR LOCATED OVER THIS AREA...THE PTYPE
WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
NORTHERN MN. THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM ANOTHER PIECE OF
FAST MOVING ENERGY GLANCING THE REGION IN A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THERE IS A GROWING OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WIND DIRECTION
OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AFFECT FETCH AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS AMOUNTS. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE OVER THE GOGEBIC
RANGE.
ON SUNDAY...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES OVER THE REGION AS THE
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER ALL BUT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO THESE FEATURES. PLUS...THE WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE NE BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TWIN PORTS AND SOME OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE TROF AND COLD FRONT EXIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS
LOWERING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE NE WIND PERSISTS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE CUT
LOWS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WE HAVE LOWS BELOW ZERO.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE...BUT LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL.
A COUPLE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL WAA WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE COULD
BE A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP INTO THE TWENTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW/LIGHT RAIN
AND POSSIBLE SLEET TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AREA RADARS SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS. WE WENT
CLOSER TO THE RAP WHICH KEEPS CEILINGS IN LONGER.
A SECOND WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH
IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 19 26 8 / 40 20 40 10
INL 34 9 20 -2 / 40 20 0 0
BRD 37 19 28 11 / 0 20 20 0
HYR 38 22 30 7 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 40 22 28 9 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1156 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON A SMALL AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
THERMAL RIDGE AND MID LEVEL WAVE. A CURRENT DISTANCE-SPEED TRACK
BRINGS THIS AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA AROUND 1000 PM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS ALSO
PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE AND SUGGESTS IT SLIDES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING THE MILLE LACS LAKE AND ST CROIX RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH DAY BREAK. HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOURS PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AREA ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
RAIN...SOMETIMES CHANGING TO SNOW OR SLEET...CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY WRAP UP TOWARDS THE
EVENING AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION TOWARDS LAKE
SUPERIOR. COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAILS THE MAIN THE LOW...RESULTING IN
MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS...BUT A MILD START TO THE
WEEKEND NONETHELESS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING PATTERN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE MIDWEST. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WINTRY PRECIP YESTERDAY AND TODAY IS LIFTING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ITS TAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SRN MANITOBA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON DIVING EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
IT WEAKENS TONIGHT. A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BREAKS DOWN
WITH A MUCH MORE ZONAL PATTERN AT MID LEVELS FOR SATURDAY. THE
SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN TO FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO ELY AND POINTS NORTH...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE IRON RANGE AND TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.
AIR MOVING IN WITH THIS SECOND LOW IS COLDER BUT CERTAINLY NOT VERY
COLD...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C...SO TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BOUT OF CLEARING IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY BRAINERD TO SPOONER...DUE TO SOME MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...BUT CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
SATURDAY MILD AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE THE LOW DEPARTING A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS PREVENTS AN ARCTIC
HIGH FROM BUILD IN WHICH MEANS CONTINUED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES/TEMPS
IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINING PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH SHORT LIVED COLD TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BIT WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO ONLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BRINGING LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
VARY FROM NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KINL WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KINL. THINK THAT THE CIGS WILL REMAIN LIFR...HOWEVER
LATEST GFSLAMP/NAMMOS/GFSMOS INDICATE VISBY AROUND 1/2SM OR LOWER
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. THINK THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE AS UPSTREAM
OBS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF THESE CONDITIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VISBY RESTRICTION
BETWEEN 14Z-21Z ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND
21Z...EXCEPT FOR KHYR WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY STILL LINGER AS THE
WAVE IS EXITING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 36 24 30 / 20 10 10 30
INL 30 33 17 23 / 50 30 20 10
BRD 32 36 25 32 / 10 10 30 20
HYR 33 37 25 34 / 20 10 10 30
ASX 33 38 25 31 / 70 20 20 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
952 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...USUALLY DO NOT
EXTEND PAST 12Z. HOWEVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
MAY REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH FORCED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING VALUES. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HI RES
MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS TONIGHT. COLD AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MOVING FAST...SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UP SEEMED GOOD.
THE CURRENT CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE RAIN. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST
UNMEASURABLE. MSAS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR SHREVEPORT...WITH THE
ONLY REAL RAIN FALLING OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA BACK INTO TEXAS. USING
THE RUC AND HRRR...TRIED TO DOWNPLAY THE RAIN FOR THE EVENING. THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STRETCH FROM THE MIDSOUTH BACK
THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT WILL BE 9Z OR LATER BEFORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE CWA...SO MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDER.
AT THIS TIME...THE CLOSEST CONVECTION WAS NORTH OF THE AREA AND
DIMINISHING AS IT SINKS SOUTH. TOOK THUNDER OUT THIS EVENING
EVERYWHERE AND LEFT SOME MENTION AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. RADAR TIMING SUGGESTS IT MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND THAT
TIME. CEILINGS ARE FALLING...SO MOISTURE THE MOISTURE IS GETTING
BETTER. ASIDE FROM POPS AND TEMPS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT 0130Z AT GLH-GWO WITH
VFR CONDS ELSEWHERE. A LINE OF TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ALONG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NORTH MS. THIS FRONT WL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDS. LIFR CIGS WL BE PSBL 10-14Z MON BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT
WL BRING VARIABLE WINDS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY. /22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
DISCUSSION...PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY MID LEVEL LAYER HAS CONSUMED MOST OF WHAT
HAS FALLEN. THAT SHOULD CHANGE GOING INTO TONIGHT AS APPROACHING MID
LEVEL WAVE OUT OF TX BEGINS HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE WIND FIELD
RESULTING IN DEEPENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE 305-320K THETA LAYER) AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN TONIGHT EXTENDING INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHARPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL LEAD
TO TIGHTENING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AND A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS JET WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SE WHILE DEVELOPING A
MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TX BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD INTRUSION OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY WILL LEAD
TO STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM CRUISES ACROSS TX TUESDAY
MORNING. RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WIND FIELDS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WELL AS STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL MS BY 18Z.
THE COLD CORE REMAINING IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW
SUGGESTS THIS EVENT MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES DESPITE ONLY MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS. NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST
SIMILAR IN THIS SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS IS NOT FAR BEHIND.
BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION AND TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO SETUP
OVER THE SE HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL EXIST WITH 400-600 0-3 KM SRH...80% OF THAT
OCCURRING THE THE 0-1KM LAYER. NAM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SIG TOR
PARAMETERS AROUND 4 IN THIS AREA AS WELL. VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S AND DEEP LAYERED LAPSE RATES FROM 6-7 C/KM SUGGEST UPDRAFTS WILL
BE QUITE ROBUST. THIS INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SO
EVEN A HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NW HALF.
4KM NAM INDICATING THAT SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG A LINE OVER
SE TX TUESDAY MORNING...MOVE RAPIDLY EAST INTO LA BY NOON AND INTO
SW MS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE EXTENDED HWO SLIGHT AREA TO COVER OUR ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTRODUCED AN ELEVATED AREA OVER OUR SE HALF
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN SEVERE WEATHER WITH TORNADOES.
SYSTEM PULLS OUT AS RAPIDLY AS IT COMES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN THE COLUMN FROM THE EXITING
COLD CORE LOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 61 65 52 68 / 96 94 41 80
MERIDIAN 59 64 52 69 / 88 95 52 68
VICKSBURG 63 63 50 67 / 96 86 37 95
HATTIESBURG 62 67 55 72 / 53 86 56 75
NATCHEZ 62 66 54 69 / 91 92 40 92
GREENVILLE 55 59 47 65 / 80 68 32 90
GREENWOOD 60 60 48 66 / 82 79 43 77
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
07/22/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
909 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016
The going forecast looks to be on track. The biggest challenge is
how to handle the stratus which continues to filter south out of
Iowa and central Illinois into our area. There are enough breaks
in the clouds to make it difficult to figure out what the
percentage of sky cover is and the southern edges of the clouds
keep evaporating as they move south. RAP 950-900mb RH seems to be
doing an OK job handling the clouds at this time...but it might be
too cloudy later tonight. At any rate, cold advection on northerly
flow should keep temperatures dropping tonight...so the going
temperature forecast still looks good.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016
Expect dry conditions tonight as a shortwave trough over the
Great Lakes moves quickly off to the east leaving the area under
weak subsidence. Weak north to northeasterly low level flow will
bring some of the low clouds south into the northern and western
parts of the area by late tonight. Went a bit above on MOS
guidance tonight based on expected low clouds moving in and
current dewpoints.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016
Still expect Monday and Monday night to be dry with northeasterly
flow into the area under weak west southwesterly flow aloft.
Temperatures will be close to seasonable normals.
While there are some questions about the storm that will move across
the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday, it appears that there is
the potential for 1-2+ inches of snow over the central and eastern
CWA during this period. Main questions will be temperatures as the
lower atmosphere will be close to freezing, and current forecast is
a mix of rain and snow. Any change in the temperature forecast
could mean more rain and less accumulation, or more snow and more
accumulation.
Have leaned more on the global models as the NAM has not shown much
continuity over the past 24 hours. Still looks like a trough will
dive southeast over the western CONUS on Monday and close off over
the southern Plains on Tuesday before lifting out over Mid South and
the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. This setup would be
favorable for the deformation zone to move across the central or
southeast part of the CWA.
This system will then lift out on Wednesday evening and dry weather
is expected into next weekend as upper flow switches from
northwesterly to zonal. Seasonable normals are expected during the
period.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016
Surface ridge over the northern Plains will build southeastward
into our area. Northerly surface winds tonight will veer around to
a nely direction on Monday. Low level cloudiness will advect
southeastward into COU and the St Louis metro area late tonight
and Monday morning. For now will keep it VFR, but there may be a
period of MVFR cigs late tonight and Monday morning. Low level
cloudiness will continue in UIN, mainly MVFR tonight and Monday
morning, then likely rising into the VFR catagory Monday
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level cloudiness will likely advect into
STL late tonight. For now will keep it VFR, but there may be a
brief period of MVFR cigs late tonight and Monday morning. Nly
surface winds will weaken tonight, then veer around to a nely
direction Monday morning.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Record breaking warmth across the region this afternoon, with a
pretty tight moisture gradient roughly running E-W along interstate
70. South of this line temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with dewpoints in the 50s. North of this boundary, temperatures
are warm, in the 60s to 70s, but dewpoints are in the 30s. So far as
of the writing of this discussion, KMCI reached 74 degrees, which
breaks the record of 70 degrees, set in 2011. Later today, along the
aforementioned boundary, there could be a few showers and
thunderstorms forming. The best chance for these showers will be
across southern and central Missouri, although there could be a few
isolated weak cells as far north as I-70. There will likely be no
surface based storms, as low level lapse rates are not very steep.
However, there will be steep enough lapse rates in the mid levels to
muster 500 to 1000 J/kg of MU Cape. 0 to 6 km shear indicates 30 to
40 kts of deep layer shear, which could combine with the elevated
instability to bring a strong storm or two. HRRR trends have
indicated a more southern and eastern slide in the area storms are
expected to form. Expect these storms to grow in coverage through
the evening and move off into eastern Missouri through the overnight
hours.
Thereafter, for the rest of the weekend and into next week, expect
dry conditions with cooler temperatures as a cooler air mass slides
into the area. Even with cooler temperatures, still anticipating
highs to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal late February highs
through the week. By mid week, there will likely be a strong winter
storm moving through the southern plains. Right now it looks like
this storm will glide south of here and go across Arkansas and
Tennessee. Should this storm slide a little north we could see it
impact portions of this forecast area, but even with some movement
north it will likely be too warm to get any snow out of it. For now
it appears there could be some light rain along its far northern
periphery mid week. Expect above normal temps and dry conditions to
persist through the late part of the week and into early next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1006 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
No anticipated flight restrictions through the forecast period.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely form across central Missouri this
evening and overnight, but for now it looks like they will remain
well south of the terminals. Will continue to monitor trends and
update as necessary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the
far southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Specifics for KUIN: VFR through the period. A warm front is
lifting into the region, but it is not expected to reach KUIN
before sinking southward again. Winds turn northeasterly tonight
after a low pressure center moves away from the region.
Specifics for KCOU: VFR for the first 0-3 hours. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and into the
evening. Winds will become northeasterly tonight after a warm
front sinks southward, then become northerly to northwesterly
late in the pd.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-3 hours.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
northeastward towards the terminals during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Winds turn northeasterly tonight after a warm
front sinks southward, then become northerly to northwesterly late
in the pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
725 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR US...UNDER FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH APPROACHING WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND INCREASED WIND FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IN OUR EAST
TONIGHT...IN REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 20S AND LIGHT EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HRRR SUGGESTS FOG ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BLACK
HILLS INTO CARTER COUNTY LATER TONIGHT...AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPTS NOTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HILLS. OVER
TIME...WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND AN EASTWARD SPREAD
OF WEST WINDS...LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR THE WIND...GRADIENT AND STABILITY DO NOT
APPEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR GAP FLOW BUT WE SHOULD SEE WINDS
INCREASE MODESTLY AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE THRU THE NIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT SO DO NOT SEE ENOUGH STABILIZATION
BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE MIXED. SHOULD SEE SEE SOME HEALTHY GUSTS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS UP TO HARLOWTON TOMORROW...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR
ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND WINDS PER CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO
TWEAKED LOWS DOWN A BIT IN EASTERN VALLEYS WITH A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BEFORE HIGH CLOUD ARRIVES. ALREADY IN THE
20S AT BAKER AND SHERIDAN AT 7 PM.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
THE FOG/STRATUS DEPARTED THE EASTERN ZONES BY NOON MST EARLIER TODAY.
THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WAS FROM NE MT JUST E OF KGGW...TO ND
JUST E OF KBHK AT 21Z. THE MET GUIDANCE AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWED THAT THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO KBHK TONIGHT SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KMLS SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN
PUSHING INTO WA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL REACH WESTERN MT BY 12Z MON AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE WEST BY 12Z. THE WAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING MON USHERING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS. STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT SHOWERS BETWEEN
KLVM AND KBIL. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
E OF KBIL. THE SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE NE BIGHORNS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TO THIS AREA. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S KNOTS RANGE ON MON SO EXPECT A BREEZY DAY BUT NO HIGH
WINDS. HARLOWTON SOUNDING SHOWED SOME 45 KT IN THE MIXING LAYER
EARLY ON MON SO HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON MON.
THE WAVE WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUE
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. TUE WILL
BE LESS WINDY THAN MON. A FLAT NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
TUE NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS. MODELS DROP A BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STALLED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
FLOW LOOKS QUITE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP...EVEN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO PRECIP POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE REGION.
INTRODUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MUCH LESS THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FOR ALL SITES. THOUGH
VCSH COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AROUND KLVM
FROM 07 TO 14Z. VCFG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMLS AND KBHK FROM 06Z TO
15Z BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS MEANT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG FORMING. BREEZY WNW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25
KTS MOVE IN LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/050 029/049 028/047 028/049 031/056 031/053 031/048
01/N 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/B 22/W
LVM 031/044 024/042 023/046 027/050 031/054 032/053 033/047
22/W 11/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 01/N 33/W
HDN 026/052 026/050 025/048 024/049 027/055 027/054 027/048
02/W 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/B 22/W
MLS 027/050 026/047 026/045 023/043 026/051 025/048 026/044
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 11/N 10/B 12/W
4BQ 024/049 024/046 024/046 022/045 025/051 025/050 026/045
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 01/N 11/B 12/W
BHK 024/047 023/041 022/041 019/038 022/046 022/044 021/040
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/N 11/B
SHR 024/047 024/043 021/044 021/047 025/052 026/051 026/047
03/W 41/N 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 23/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
947 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
MADE JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVED TRENDS. A BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS OBSERVED MOVING QUICKLY E
THROUGH WY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A STRUNG OUT AREA
OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND ID INTO MT AND
WY PER THE RAP AND WATER VAPOR. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
AND E PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL PUSH SE OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING A BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO NE MT.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST WAS CHALLENGING WITH THE HRRR NOT PICKING
UP WELL ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING VARIOUS
QPF SOLUTIONS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH NW
WINDS IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH THE MIXING COLUMN. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH 20S OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OF
THE SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SO SPREAD OUT THE LOW POPS E OF KBIL OVER MUCH OF SE MT.
ALSO ADDED POPS TO KLVM WITH MODELS GENERATING PRECIPITATION THERE
WITH THE APPROACHING VORTICITY.
INCREASED WINDS FROM KBIL W THIS MORNING TO BETTER MATCH RECENT
TRENDS. EXPECTING A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA WITH A DOWNSLOPISH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHORTWAVE IS TAPPED INTO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVER IDAHO WITH RADAR
SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
COMBINATION OF HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE OVER
IDAHO AND FALLING PRESSURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA HAS
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH GAP WINDS AT LIVINGSTON GUSTING
TO 45 MPH. PROGS INDICATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REACHED THEIR
MAX SO DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO REALLY GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 50 MPH.
AGAIN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THER REGION SETS THE STAGE FOR
GOOD MIXING AND AS THE HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS BUT WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHED EARLY TODAY AND GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE 50S
BEFORE STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING ARRIVES. DOWNSLOPE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TODAY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FALLON COUNTY WHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH GETS A STRONGER PUSH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND ALLOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT IT DOES WASH OUT AS IT REACHES BILLINGS AS
DEVELOPING LEESIDE TROUGHING WASHES OUT THE COLD AIR PUSH.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR BILLINGS HAS SEEN IN
THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND COULD FALL BELOW 30.
COOLER START BUT SUNNIER SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A DRY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 40S. WILL BE
SOME OF THE LIGHTER WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS SO DESPITE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
A PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. OVERALL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL AT
OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
TWO DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MON INTO
MON NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS DAYTIME
HEATING WARMS THE LOWER LEVELS. FORCING STILL APPEARS FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT LAPSE RATES DO APPEAR TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
A FEW WEAK WAVES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...WEAK FORCING...AND
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE WIND SPEEDS DO APPEAR TO REMAIN MUCH LOWER THAN
THOSE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. RMS/BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO LIVINGSTON AREA...AND
NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A LESS WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 028/050 032/050 029/043 028/048 027/049 031/054
1/N 10/U 03/W 21/B 01/U 11/B 11/B
LVM 045 025/046 031/045 025/040 024/046 027/050 029/051
2/W 10/B 23/W 31/B 10/N 11/B 11/B
HDN 054 026/052 029/052 027/045 025/049 024/048 027/053
1/N 10/U 13/W 21/B 01/U 11/B 11/B
MLS 051 029/048 028/050 027/044 026/046 023/044 026/049
2/W 11/B 02/W 10/N 11/N 11/B 11/B
4BQ 053 027/048 027/050 026/042 023/047 022/045 025/050
2/W 11/B 12/W 11/B 01/U 11/B 11/B
BHK 047 025/042 025/047 023/037 022/042 020/039 021/044
3/W 21/B 12/W 11/N 11/B 11/B 11/N
SHR 050 023/047 026/048 025/039 020/046 021/046 024/050
0/N 10/U 13/W 31/B 11/U 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOWER AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY. THIS MORNINGS UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE HAD A PWAT OF 0.21 INCHES. MODELS DO
MOISTEN THE MID AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE SOME THIS EVENING...AND WITH
THE DECENT LIFT...HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AREA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN. RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN WITHIN THIS BAND AT
ONEILL THE SOUNDING IS ABOVE FREEZING UP THROUGH 850MB...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAWN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES BY SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WARMUP IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING THROUGH COLORADO INTO KANSAS. STILL KEPT
NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF FA MONDAY NIGHT AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING TO PSBL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BACK TO RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS PSBL TUESDAY.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WRN NEBRASKA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER AIR FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE COLDER AIR
COULD CAUSE AN ADJUSTMENT TO COLDER HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS WARMER AIR
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES. BRIEF WARMUPS BETWEEN PASSING COLD FRONTS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
A FEW SPRINKLES. THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS DEVELOPING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1033 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BRING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK AND
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SW TO N AND EVENTUALLY NE AS THE FRONT OOZES SOUTH
WITH TIME.
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE ON INCREASING SW
FLOW...UP TO 35 TO 40 KT AROUND 2 KFT. THE COLUMN DOES STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE IN THE 3-10 KFT LAYER. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS DRY ABOVE
AND BELOW THIS LAYER AND SO ANY RAIN THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND
WILL BE LIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH 12Z. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE/HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE
QPF FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NONE UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
IT WAS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS EVE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A WELL MIXED COLUMN...GIVEN STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A BALMY NIGHT BY
FEBRUARY STANDARDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP TO THE MID
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAKES VERY SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
NORTH-TO- SOUTH GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10
DEGREES AS AREAS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE MORE TIME TO HEAT UP
BEFORE THE SURFACE WEDGE MOVES IN. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE
WEDGE WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FOR RAIN CHANCES THAT RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. WE STAY
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY BUT MODELS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER
OMEGA FIELDS SO QPF PROSPECTS SEEM LOW EVEN THOUGH ACTUAL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING RAINFALL REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED. QPF IS
ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT DECENT
TOTALS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF RANGE OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT GIVEN
THE PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(NOT SURFACE) FEEL MOST OF THAT REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
YIELDING ANOTHER GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO
ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BY
WEDNESDAY MAY PRECLUDE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO STACKED
LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY ON WED. THE SYSTEM LIFTS
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WED MORNING. A MODEST INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR...SETTING UP A TYPICAL WINTER TIME
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THE LOW WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE TOTAL QPF MAY END UP BEING ON THE LOW
SIDE. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEING
SPREAD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A WRAP AROUND DRY SLOT WED
NIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO ACQUIRE SOME NEGATIVE TILT BUT
THIS LIKELY OCCURS TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT THU AND FRI WITH COLD
ADVECTION DROPPING TEMPS BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THU CONTINUES THROUGH FRI NIGHT KEEPING THE REGION DRY.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH
MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK NEAR CLIMO BUT
DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ON MONDAY WITH LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG
AND SHOWERS.
VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THEY ARE NOT
CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS VEERING AND BECOMING
WESTERLY...NORTHERLY...AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KT. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND -RA/VCSH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH 5 AM. SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE A PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST WATERS NEAR 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SW TO N AND EVENTUALLY NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS MON AND MON
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 20
KT...BUT SW WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 5
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE CAPPED AT 15KT THROUGH THE VEER AND WAVE FACES MAY STEEPEN
SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL HEIGHT TO STAY FAIRLY STEADY. LIGHTER WINDS
ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BACKS UP INTO THE REGION AND STALLS.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLACKEN THE GRADIENT UP AND DOWN THE COAST. ADDITIONAL VEERING AND
POSSIBLE SPEED INCREASES AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AND A STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME LURKS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED WILL APPROACH
30 KT LATE WED AND WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS OVER 10 FT WED WITH
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUING INTO FRI MORNING. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF SCA
HEADLINE THROUGH THE END OF THU NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND GRADIENT
START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS
FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
937 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE. WE
ARE ADVERTISING A BIT SLOWER HOURLY INCREASE TO POPS IN FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ND...WHERE FLURRIES HAVE ONLY BEGUN BEING REPORTED BY THE
ROLLA AWOS AT 0315 UTC. ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...WE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ND AS
EVENING TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROWING...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF MUCH FOG FORMATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
STRATUS THINNED AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 2230 AND 2330 UTC...SO THE FOCUS OF
THIS UPDATE WAS ON REFINING SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN
EXPECTATION THAT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT REDEVELOP DESPITE
SUNSET. THAT IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND ESPECIALLY ON
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH BEST MATCH THOSE TRENDS. WE ALSO
ADDED A LOW-END POP FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST ND THROUGH 03
UTC BASED ON CONVECTIVE-LOOKING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
AT 2 PM CST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
TO THE EAST A LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE TONIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDS BRING
LIKELY POPS TO A SMALL REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
ON MONDAY EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. COOLER NORTH
AND EAST UNDER CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LONG TERM APPEARS MILD AND QUIET.
A FEW FASTING MOVING WAVES MAKE SPARK SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL
SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN
THIS WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND.
IF THIS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE A RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO FAMILIAR
WINTER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
SOME MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL LIKELY LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY /POSSIBLY IMPACTING KJMS/. PATCHY FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
STRATUS THINNED AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 2230 AND 2330 UTC...SO THE FOCUS OF
THIS UPDATE WAS ON REFINING SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN
EXPECTATION THAT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT REDEVELOP DESPITE
SUNSET. THAT IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND ESPECIALLY ON
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH BEST MATCH THOSE TRENDS. WE ALSO
ADDED A LOW-END POP FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST ND THROUGH 03
UTC BASED ON CONVECTIVE-LOOKING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
AT 2 PM CST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
TO THE EAST A LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE TONIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDS BRING
LIKELY POPS TO A SMALL REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
ON MONDAY EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. COOLER NORTH
AND EAST UNDER CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LONG TERM APPEARS MILD AND QUIET.
A FEW FASTING MOVING WAVES MAKE SPARK SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL
SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN
THIS WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND.
IF THIS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE A RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO FAMILIAR
WINTER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON /INCLUDING AT KDIK AND KBIS/
ARE UNLIKELY TO RETURN BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MVFR CEILINGS
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY
ALSO LIFT TONIGHT...BUT LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AT KJMS. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VERY LIGHT SNOW AREA EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA ATTM. OTHERWISE
HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION TODAY WITH TEMPS FALLING SOME IN THE
NORTH. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREE RISE IN THE SOUTH BUT OVERALL
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN THE NORTH. STRATOCU AROUND BUT SOME
HOLES AS WELL. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL
THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE OVERDOING QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTING A REGION OF WEAKENING RASN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND MORE WEAK ECHOES OVER SW MANITOBA. THIS LATTER AREA IS PROGGED
BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER NE ND...WHILE THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TWO TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPFS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN BY
12Z...WEAKENING MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 17Z. THE RAP SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL USE IT FOR POP/QPF GUIDANCE.
A SFC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS INTO THE VALLEY FROM A CANADIAN HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY
WEATHER AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON LATEST RAP H925-H850 LAYER RH THAT THE NORTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE CLEARING BY MID MORNING AND FILL BACK IN LATER
IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SKY
GRID FOR NOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE OVER SE ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
ND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW INTO FAR
WRN ZONES BY 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME...WITH GFS A BIT SOONER AND WITH
HIGHER QPFS. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. USING A FCST
BLEND...AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
(SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY). CANADIAN SFC HIGH THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH BY SUN AFTN...WITH MUCH COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH A MINOR VORT
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO NOT MUCH OVER A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...OVERALL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...BUT SHORTWAVES VERY HARD TO TIME SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEXT
FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND DELAYED WITH THIS FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW HRS OF VFR AT KDVL WITH AN AREA OF UPSTREAM
CLEARING...FOLLOWED BY MORE OVERCAST. KEPT SOME OVERNIGHT -SN FOR
KDVL/KFAR AS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TIGHTER GRADIENT NEAR KBJI EASING BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VERY LIGHT SNOW AREA EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA ATTM. OTHERWISE
HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION TODAY WITH TEMPS FALLING SOME IN THE
NORTH. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREE RISE IN THE SOUTH BUT OVERALL
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN THE NORTH. STRATOCU AROUND BUT SOME
HOLES AS WELL. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL
THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE OVERDOING QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTING A REGION OF WEAKENING RASN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND MORE WEAK ECHOES OVER SW MANITOBA. THIS LATTER AREA IS PROGGED
BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER NE ND...WHILE THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TWO TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPFS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN BY
12Z...WEAKENING MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 17Z. THE RAP SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL USE IT FOR POP/QPF GUIDANCE.
A SFC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS INTO THE VALLEY FROM A CANADIAN HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY
WEATHER AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON LATEST RAP H925-H850 LAYER RH THAT THE NORTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE CLEARING BY MID MORNING AND FILL BACK IN LATER
IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SKY
GRID FOR NOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE OVER SE ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
ND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW INTO FAR
WRN ZONES BY 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME...WITH GFS A BIT SOONER AND WITH
HIGHER QPFS. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. USING A FCST
BLEND...AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
(SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY). CANADIAN SFC HIGH THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH BY SUN AFTN...WITH MUCH COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH A MINOR VORT
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO NOT MUCH OVER A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...OVERALL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...BUT SHORTWAVES VERY HARD TO TIME SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEXT
FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND DELAYED WITH THIS FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT SNOW IN THE GFK..TVF AND
BJI THIS MORNING WILL END BY 18Z. MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A DVL-FAR LINE. CIGS MAY FALL
TO IFR CONDS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
VALLEY CITY AND GRAND FORKS...WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF A WARROAD TO
RED LAKE FALLS TO HILLSBORO TO CASSELTON LINE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BEMIDJI AREA BY NOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
EXTEND MENTION OF SCT SHSN FURTHER SOUTH. NO CHANGES TO OTHER
SENSIBLE ELEMENTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL
THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE OVERDOING QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTING A REGION OF WEAKENING RASN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND MORE WEAK ECHOES OVER SW MANITOBA. THIS LATTER AREA IS PROGGED
BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER NE ND...WHILE THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TWO TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPFS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN BY
12Z...WEAKENING MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 17Z. THE RAP SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL USE IT FOR POP/QPF GUIDANCE.
A SFC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS INTO THE VALLEY FROM A CANADIAN HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY
WEATHER AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON LATEST RAP H925-H850 LAYER RH THAT THE NORTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE CLEARING BY MID MORNING AND FILL BACK IN LATER
IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SKY
GRID FOR NOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE OVER SE ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
ND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW INTO FAR
WRN ZONES BY 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME...WITH GFS A BIT SOONER AND WITH
HIGHER QPFS. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. USING A FCST
BLEND...AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
(SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY). CANADIAN SFC HIGH THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH BY SUN AFTN...WITH MUCH COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH A MINOR VORT
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO NOT MUCH OVER A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...OVERALL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...BUT SHORTWAVES VERY HARD TO TIME SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEXT
FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND DELAYED WITH THIS FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT SNOW IN THE GFK..TVF AND
BJI THIS MORNING WILL END BY 18Z. MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A DVL-FAR LINE. CIGS MAY FALL
TO IFR CONDS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL
THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE OVERDOING QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTING A REGION OF WEAKENING RASN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND MORE WEAK ECHOES OVER SW MANITOBA. THIS LATTER AREA IS PROGGED
BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER NE ND...WHILE THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TWO TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPFS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN BY
12Z...WEAKENING MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 17Z. THE RAP SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL USE IT FOR POP/QPF GUIDANCE.
A SFC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS INTO THE VALLEY FROM A CANADIAN HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY
WEATHER AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON LATEST RAP H925-H850 LAYER RH THAT THE NORTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE CLEARING BY MID MORNING AND FILL BACK IN LATER
IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SKY
GRID FOR NOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE OVER SE ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
ND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW INTO FAR
WRN ZONES BY 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME...WITH GFS A BIT SOONER AND WITH
HIGHER QPFS. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. USING A FCST
BLEND...AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
(SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY). CANADIAN SFC HIGH THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH BY SUN AFTN...WITH MUCH COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH A MINOR VORT
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO NOT MUCH OVER A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...OVERALL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...BUT SHORTWAVES VERY HARD TO TIME SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEXT
FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND DELAYED WITH THIS FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
GENERALLY VFR CIGS WERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE ND/MAN BORDER. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD GO BACK UP TO MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS SAT MID MORNING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1007 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND STRONG WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP IN TERMS ON WHERE AND
HOW MUCH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. CURRENT NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THIS MAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF OCCURRING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY...TO BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY IN A REGIME
LACKING MOISTURE AND FORCING.
POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH
OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PROVIDING THICKENING
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY...BOOSTED
TO THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VLY TO EJECT NE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WED AND THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS NE INTO THE REGION. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLN
WHICH TAKES THE DEEP SFC LOW INTO SRN OHIO BY WED EVENING. FORCING
IS ENHANCED BY H8 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 45-50 KT LLJ AHEAD OF
THE SFC WAVE. BASED ON THIS CLUSTERING OF SOLN/S WILL RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
DUE TO WAA WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW
LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS STILL
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO TIMING OF CHANGE OVER.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY INTO SE CANADA. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH LATE WED INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING
COLD BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO DIGGING S/W
WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SOUTH THRU OHIO VALLEY SAT AFTN/EVENING. HAVE MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THIS STRONG FRONT AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMP WISE...ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HIGHS ON WED WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. IN
CAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SOME MODERATION SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS FEATURE...A SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR
APPEARS HIGHEST AT KDAY. KCVG/KLUK/KILN MAY SEE SOME OF THESE
CEILINGS WITH KCMH/KLCK PERHAPS REMAINING SCATTERED/VFR.
ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS/CIRRUS BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
CEILING BY THEN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1053 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FINAL SHOWER REMNANTS TRACKING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GLAKS IS NUDGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP AROUND OR
SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS
AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKES WILL
TRIGGER A FLURRY OR TWO TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT
INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLIER RAIN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND
TO PRODUCE FOG AT KMDT LATE THIS EVENING. 03Z VIS HAS DROPPED TO
1/2SM AT KMDT AND A SIMILAR DROP IS POSSIBLE AT KLNS BTWN 04Z-05Z
AS SKIES CLEAR. A TOUGH CALL ON VSBY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AT BOTH KMDT AND KLNS. STILL BELIEVE ARRIVAL OF DRIER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH...GIVEN CURRENT CONDS AND LATEST NAMDNG OUTPUT INDICATING
PATCHY FOG LINGERING ARND THRU ABOUT 13Z.
OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW
AND A COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT
POINT TOWARD ARND A 50 PCT POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN
06Z-13Z.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATER MONDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS THE NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS A
LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE.
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FINAL SHOWER REMNANTS TRACKING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GLAKS IS NUDGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP AROUND OR
SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS
AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKES WILL
TRIGGER A FLURRY OR TWO TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT
INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES PASSING SOUTH OF PA WILL PRODUCE A BIT OF
LGT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR /MVFR/ REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS
EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY THREAT OF
REDUCED CIGS IN THIS AREA WILL END BY ARND 04Z...AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DRAWS IN DRIER AIR BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES SYSTEM.
MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW
AND A COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGEST IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBFD BTWN 06Z-14Z. WET GROUND/LOW
DWPT DEPRESSIONS...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES...SUGGEST FOG IS
A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
PRECLUDE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATER MONDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS A
LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE.
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS TO GO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. JUST NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
MID SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...DRY SLOT MADE A NICE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA. KEEPING MENTIONS OF SHOWERS FOR A FEW HRS AFTER
SUNSET AS EASTWARD PROGRESS REMAINS SLOW.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHOVE EVENTUALLY NUDGE IT OFF TO THE EAST
AND END PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
IN THE SE AFTER THE WAVE MOVES EAST. THE CLEAR SLOT OVER THE
CENTRAL COS WILL CLOSE UP AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS THE CLOUDS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL VARY AS THE INITIAL HEATING GOES
AWAY BUT THE CHANGE IN SKY COVER MIGHT HELP TEMPS STAY STEADY OR
RISE VERY SLIGHTLY. WILL MAINTAIN A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE FOR NOW.
THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO UP NORTH BUT NOTHING SHOULD
ACCUMULATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT
INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES PASSING SOUTH OF PA WILL PRODUCE A BIT OF
LGT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR /MVFR/ REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS
EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY THREAT OF
REDUCED CIGS IN THIS AREA WILL END BY ARND 04Z...AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DRAWS IN DRIER AIR BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES SYSTEM.
MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW
AND A COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGEST IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBFD BTWN 06Z-14Z. WET GROUND/LOW
DWPT DEPRESSIONS...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES...SUGGEST FOG IS
A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
PRECLUDE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATER MONDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS A
LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE.
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
720 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR POSSIBLY A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION DURING THE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A WARM FRONT/
HAS BEEN PUSHED QUICKLY TO EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS WERE
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ATTM.
STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS
ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE
STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY /AND RISING FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE/.
21Z/03Z SREF...00/06Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE /MIXED WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENN/.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 OR 61F...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
DATE...THEY/LL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE 67F AT
KIPT AND 72F AT KMDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER ON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE LESSENED WITH RESPECT TO THE WEAK WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RACE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...TO A LOCATION JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NRN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP /RAIN/ SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FLAT UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST...03Z SREF AND 00Z EC SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT QPF COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF I-80 IN
CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. 925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0 BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT /BETWEEN
THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR AND INTERSTATE 80/...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE
WAVE SCOOTS EAST AND OFFICE THE MA COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON COLDER GRASSY AREAS SUN NIGHT APPEAR TO
BE UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OR RAIN LATE
TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
REMAINS QUITE HIGH AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED/SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN OR EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS)
DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO
SYSTEMS. LATEST 00Z EC AND 00Z/06Z GEFS HAVE TRENDED FAR ENOUGH
WEST...BRINGING ONE PRIMARY SFC LOW UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WOULD IMPLY /COUPLED WITH A DEPARTING NRN NEW ENGLAND HIGH/
THAT COLD AIR WOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PREIP...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST THIRD OF
THE EVENT - LATE TUES INTO WED.
DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS WITH
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH GUSTY WINDS ALOFT AND MVFR APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AFTER 00Z AND CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR BY 06Z FOR WESTERN TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
716 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR POSSIBLY A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION DURING THE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A WARM FRONT/
HAS BEEN PUSHED QUICKLY TO EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS WERE
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ATTM.
STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS
ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE
STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY /AND RISING FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE/.
21Z/03Z SREF...00/06Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE /MIXED WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENN/.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 OR 61F...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
DATE...THEY/LL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE 67F AT
KIPT AND 72F AT KMDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER ON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE LESSENED WITH RESPECT TO THE WEAK WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RACE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...TO A LOCATION JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NRN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP /RAIN/ SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FLAT UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST...03Z SREF AND 00Z EC SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT QPF COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF I-80 IN
CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. 925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0 BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT /BETWEEN
THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR AND INTERSTATE 80/...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE
WAVE SCOOTS EAST AND OFFICE THE MA COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON COLDER GRASSY AREAS SUN NIGHT APPEAR TO
BE UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OR RAIN LATE
TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
REMAINS QUITE HIGH AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED/SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN OR EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS)
DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO
SYSTEMS. LATEST 00Z EC AND 00Z/06Z GEFS HAVE TRENDED FAR ENOUGH
WEST...BRINGING ONE PRIMARY SFC LOW UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WOULD IMPLY /COUPLED WITH A DEPARTING NRN NEW ENGLAND HIGH/
THAT COLD AIR WOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PREIP...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST THIRD OF
THE EVENT - LATE TUES INTO WED.
DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS WITH
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
620 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR POSSIBLY A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION DURING THE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A WARM FRONT/
HAS BEEN PUSHED QUICKLY TO EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS WERE
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ATTM.
STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS
ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE
STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY /AND RISING FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE/.
21Z/03Z SREF...00/06Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE /MIXED WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENN/.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 OR 61F...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
DATE...THEY/LL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE 67F AT
KIPT AND 72F AT KMDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER ON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE LESSENED WITH RESPECT TO THE WEAK WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RACE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...TO A LOCATION JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NRN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP /RAIN/ SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FLAT UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST...03Z SREF AND 00Z EC SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT QPF COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF I-80 IN
CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. 925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0 BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT /BETWEEN
THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR AND INTERSTATE 80/...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE
WAVE SCOOTS EAST AND OFFICE THE MA COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON COLDER GRASSY AREAS SUN NIGHT APPEAR TO
BE UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE
IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT
RANGE...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS) DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS. ODDS FOR BIG SNOW
TOTALS REMAIN LOW BUT NON-ZERO. DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECASTS WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CENTERED
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
427 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION DURING THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK OVER THE REGION /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
A WARM FRONT/ IS BEGINNING TO BREAK ACROSS SCENT AND SWRN PENN
EARLY TODAY. STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO RISE STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION /AND RISING FORM THE MID 40S OVER
THE LAURELS/.
MOISTURE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT IS MEAGER...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIP
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE STEADY AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
21Z SREF...00Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL CONTINUE TO
SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...IN WHAT WILL END UP BEING THE WARM SECTOR AFTER WE MIX
OUT THE REMAINING...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR IN THE U30S/U40S TO
START THE DAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A 60-61F SHOW UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SCENT PENN...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
APPEAR BY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHEN THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION BECOMES FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
CONSENSUS. THE 12Z NAM BECOMES SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED AND TENDS
TO LAG ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 12Z ECMWF
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSED BUT REMAINS A MIDDLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS...WHO REMAIN SLOW AND FAST OUTLIERS
RESPECTIVELY. THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO TREND
FLATTER TOWARDS 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS WHICH BETTER FITS THE RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THIS INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MODELS
VARYING ON LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF BEST 850-700MB
FGEN/CONVERGENCE. QPF TRENDED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD AND SNOW AMTS
(SUNDAY NGT) WERE CUT BACK GIVEN LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE
IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT
RANGE...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS) DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS. ODDS FOR BIG SNOW
TOTALS REMAIN LOW BUT NON-ZERO. DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECASTS WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CENTERED
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
210 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION DURING THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK OVER THE REGION /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
A WARM FRONT/ IS BEGINNING TO BREAK ACROSS SCENT AND SWRN PENN
EARLY TODAY. STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO RISE STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION /AND RISING FORM THE MID 40S OVER
THE LAURELS/.
MOISTURE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT IS MEAGER...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIP
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE STEADY AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
21Z SREF...00Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL CONTINUE TO
SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...IN WHAT WILL END UP BEING THE WARM SECTOR AFTER WE MIX
OUT THE REMAINING...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR IN THE U30S/U40S TO
START THE DAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A 60-61F SHOW UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SCENT PENN...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
APPEAR BY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHEN THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION BECOMES FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
CONSENSUS. THE 12Z NAM BECOMES SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED AND TENDS
TO LAG ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 12Z ECMWF
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSED BUT REMAINS A MIDDLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS...WHO REMAIN SLOW AND FAST OUTLIERS
RESPECTIVELY. THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO TREND
FLATTER TOWARDS 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS WHICH BETTER FITS THE RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THIS INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MODELS
VARYING ON LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF BEST 850-700MB
FGEN/CONVERGENCE. QPF TRENDED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD AND SNOW AMTS
(SUNDAY NGT) WERE CUT BACK GIVEN LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE
IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT
RANGE...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS) DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS. ODDS FOR BIG SNOW
TOTALS REMAIN LOW BUT NON-ZERO. DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECASTS WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CENTERED
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR...BRIEF IFR...CEILINGS
AS SOME RAIN SHOWERS WORK ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY LATE NIGHT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LACORTE/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
814 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
AT 8 PM... SURFACE ANALYSIS STRETCHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG A LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS NORTHEAST TO CAMDEN
TENNESSEE. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY EASE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WHILE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. ALSO SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. STILL...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID WEEK COULD BRING BOTH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER TO THE MIDSOUTH.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CAMDEN TENNESSEE TO
WYNNE ARKANSAS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...STARTING TO
SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
THIS BAND BLOSSOMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR ABERDEEN TO
GREENVILLE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.
THERE ARE ALSO MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ARKLATEX
AREA 18Z TUESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS
THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. BEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUPELO
INCLUDING CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES. SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY
3 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUTTING OFF SO THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES GET AN
INCH AS THE MODELS LOOK RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SEVERE WEATHER OR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. VCTS
POSSIBLE AT MEM THROUGH 22/01Z...AND SHOWERS/VCSH AT TUP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT
MEM/MKL/JBR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT AT TUP BEFORE RETURNING
BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL VEER
N/NNE BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
526 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID WEEK COULD BRING BOTH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER TO THE MIDSOUTH.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CAMDEN TENNESSEE TO
WYNNE ARKANSAS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...STARTING TO
SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
THIS BAND BLOSSOMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR ABERDEEN TO
GREENVILLE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.
THERE ARE ALSO MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ARKLATEX
AREA 18Z TUESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS
THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. BEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUPELO
INCLUDING CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES. SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY
3 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUTTING OFF SO THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES GET AN
INCH AS THE MODELS LOOK RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SEVERE WEATHER OR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. VCTS
POSSIBLE AT MEM THROUGH 22/01Z...AND SHOWERS/VCSH AT TUP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT
MEM/MKL/JBR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT AT TUP BEFORE RETURNING
BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL VEER
N/NNE BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
329 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FURTHER TO THE
WEST...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO BRING IN THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE INTO THE 1.0-1.2 INCH
RANGE BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP SO FAR. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE ONLY SEEN PRECIP BEING OBSERVED AT RHP. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. ANY WEAK LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM MULTIPLE DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
COLDER AIR COMING IN ALOFT...EXPECT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS IN THE 70-90 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. PRECIP. CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. EXPECT CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO
THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY ISOLATED THUNDER UP TO MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL THE WAY INTO SW VA. AFTER THE
FRONT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...BUT THEN MOISTURE COMES STREAMING BACK INTO THE AREA
ALREADY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN UNTIL
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY KICKS THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...QUICKLY DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA. INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR
AREA WED...AND COULD HAVE A MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT AS WELL...BUT
STRONGEST WINDS MAY STAY SOUTH OUR TALLER MOUNTAINS THE WAY THE
MODELS LOOK NOW. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA...WITH PRECIP TURNING TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY PRETTY
LIGHT PRECIP OVERALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS. EURO
NOW CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INTENSIFIES THE
SURFACE LOW. WILL GET A BETTER READ ON THIS AS IT GETS CLOSER AND
MORE MODELS GET WITHIN RANGE OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 66 48 61 / 30 80 50 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 63 47 57 / 30 80 60 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 63 46 58 / 40 90 50 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 60 42 53 / 30 80 60 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
216 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES...BUT AREAS NW OF NASHVILLE WERE IN THE LOWER 70S
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY RAIN WOULD
BE BRIEF.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO MID
TN SUNDAY EVENING. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP PROVIDE A HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...STARTING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH HALF...AND MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MILD AIR IN
PLACE...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS
WILL AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL END AND COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE...THEN WET WX WILL COME BACK FOR
TUESDAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TX MOVES OUR WAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER TN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER OHOVALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND COLDER AIR DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE RAIN MAY TRANSITION OVER TO SOME BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR...WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RADAR AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF AIRPORTS TODAY...BUT ANY IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS
DIRECTLY APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL REMOVE VCSH MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING AT BNA/CSV. -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 58 67 43 55 39 / 60 90 10 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 57 65 39 53 37 / 70 90 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 53 61 42 53 40 / 40 90 30 10 30
COLUMBIA 57 65 44 55 40 / 50 70 20 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 56 65 44 56 41 / 50 70 30 10 30
WAVERLY 57 67 41 54 38 / 70 70 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
148 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND BRIEF. MID MORNING SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH A FEW THIN
SPOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WERE PARTLY
SUNNY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S PLATEAU...TO LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST...AND MAINLY UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RADAR AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF AIRPORTS TODAY...BUT ANY IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS
DIRECTLY APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL REMOVE VCSH MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING AT BNA/CSV. -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
903 PM PST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...COOL SHOWERY WEATHER WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY BREAK IN
THE WEATHER FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND... RAIN...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. GENERALLY MILD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SOME POST FRONTAL LIGHTNING...OKAY...ONLY ONE
STRIKE...OCCURRED OVER COASTAL WATERS EARLIER IN THE EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ATYPICAL ACTIVITY. GENERALLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SECONDARY
PATCH OF SHOWERS COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY
STRETCHING INTO SKAGIT AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. GENERAL MOVEMENT
IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...ARE ALSO DISSIPATING AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD...SO FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE SOUND...MIGHT BE MORE
OF A QUESTION OF IF RATHER THAN WHEN. THAT BEING SAID...OVERNIGHT
POP FORECAST MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO PESSIMISTIC BUT GIVEN THE SHARP
DROP OFF IN FORECASTED POPS AFTER 12Z...OR 4 AM PST...NOT SURE THERE
WOULD BE MUCH POINT TO AN UPDATE.
MUCH OF INHERITED HEADLINES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW THINGS HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. WITH BAND OF PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY
TO THE OLYMPICS NOW...WINTER WX ADVISORY SHOULD BE FINE THERE.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS COASTAL PRECIP BAND ALSO DOING GOOD JOB OF
HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST...SO THAT BODES WELL FOR WINTER
STORM FOR RAINIER AND LEWIS/PIERCE CASCADES. BUT PRECIP HAVING A
HARD TIME MAKING IT ACROSS THE SOUND. WILL NOT LIKELY DO ANYTHING
WITH WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR REMAINDER OF CASCADES...ALTHOUGH NEAR
TERM HRRR INDICATES A HOLE DEVELOPING IN KING/SNOHOMISH
CASCADES...INDICATIVE OF CURRENT RADAR TREND...AND MORE OF A FOCUS
ON THE NORTH. WILL ADVISE OVERNIGHT SHIFT OF THIS AND ALLOW THEM TO
MAKE TWEAKS AS THEY SEE FIT.
SMALL SCALE RIDGING STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY
WITH GENERAL TROFINESS AND SHOWERS BEHIND THAT FOR MONDAY. SMR
.LONG TERM...FROM 353 PM PST DISCUSSION...MODELS AGREE IN PUSHING A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WRN WA ON TUE...MAKING FOR A
CONFIDENTLY DRY AND SUNNY DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST NEXT WED...BUT MODELS ARE EITHER
FLATTENING THE RIDGE ON WED...OR PUSHING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEAK BELLY OF THE RIDGE. THIS NECESSITATES CARRYING LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST NEXT WED. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL RECOVER AND RE-BUILD ON
THU...ALLOWING THE FORECAST TO DRY OUT AGAIN INTO FRI. HANER
&&
.AVIATION...NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN WA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INLAND EARLY SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT TURNING NW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED AIR MASS COOL MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WA LATER SATURDAY WITH
THE AIR MASS DRYING AND STABILIZING. AT THE SURFACE... LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW TO TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRES BUILDS EAST OF
THE CASCADES.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
HEADS INLAND. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH MVFR AT TIMES
PRIMARILY WITH SHOWERS.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL LIKELY SLIP TO MVFR WITH PASSING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10-15 KT AND EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUEHNER
&&
.MARINE...FRIDAYS COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN WA IN ITS WAKE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS TO EASE OVERNIGHT.
HIGHER PRES TO BUILD EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT 1000 NM OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING ONSHORE LATER SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING. BIG CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF NORTH AMERICA CREATING OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA. BUEHNER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SKOKOMISH RIVER AT POTLATCH CRESTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUES TO GO DOWN THIS
EVENING. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MAY CAUSE LEVELS TO RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME.
WITH RIDGING ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AND AGAIN AFTER MONDAY...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SMR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTIES-OLYMPICS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
855 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
A VERY WEAK...BARELY DISCERNIBLE INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROF WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH
SOME FAST MOVING...RATHER SHEARED LOOKING MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH. THE MAIN RESULT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY MESS...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
MADISON. SKIES CLEARED BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
LIKELY DUE TO SOME SUBSIDENCE DRYING. BUT THINGS SHOULD CLOUD BACK
UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER THAN SOME SHORT RANGE
ADJUSTMENTS TO TRENDS...NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A VERY WEAK SFC TROF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z
MON AT KMSN...THEN LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS LATE IN THE MORNING ON
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT
KMKE/KUES/KENW...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AS MOST
GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL.
THIS IS TYPICAL IN VERY WEAK FLOW REGIMES. ANY LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
TROUGH SHOULD STAY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
12Z GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH A
SHEARED BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...TO TRANSLATE SOUTH
OF S WI TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. ON THE SFC...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE ON-SHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS WILL CREATE A CORRIDOR
OF SFC CONVERGENCE THAT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
CORRIDOR OF SFC CONVERGENCE...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DUE TO STRONGER ISENTROPIC OMEGA ALONG WITH A DEEPER
MOIST PROFILE INDICATED IN RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SLIGHT CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE
CORRIDOR OF THIS LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT LOOKS TO PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE REACHING THE
WAUKESHA...MILWAUKEE...AND RACINE AREAS. ALTOGETHER...SOME PLACES
COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO STAY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A LOBE OF HIGH LOW-
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH S WI. HIGHS MONDAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS 925 MB WINDS LOOK TO VEER
FROM THE SOUTH...ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A WEST TO EAST SFC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRN WI FOR MON NT AND TUE WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PARTLY TO MO
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FOR TUE NT INTO WED BUT
SHEAR OUT AS STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO OHIO. WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LGT SNOW IN
THE FAR NW CWA TUE NT BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PTLY TO MO CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING.
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS THE MODELS ON AVERAGE HAVE BEEN TRENDING
WEST WITH THE LARGE CYCLONE...SO WILL NOW GO WITH 40-50 POPS WED
AFT AND NIGHT FOR LGT SNOW IN FAR ERN WI VIA MIDDLE LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND PVA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
WILL AFFECT ERN WI AS WELL WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER LAKE MI
AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER LAND. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THU
AM OVER FAR ERN WI. BRISK NWLY WILL CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN WI ON FRI BUT ANOTHER
STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES OR SRN CANADA
IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FROM
CANADA. THIS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE MSN TAF SITE...THIS EVENING. A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
CHANCES OF -SN. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY IN OUR WEST AND AWAY FROM
OUR EASTERN TAF SITES AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THOUGHT
ABOUT INTRODUCING SOME LIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE -SN
CHANCES...BUT CONSIDERING THE SMALL CHANCES...DECIDED TO KEEP VSBYS
P6SM FOR THE MSN TAF SITE. MOREOVER...INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE MSN TAF
SITE TO ACCOMMODATE THE CHANCES OF -SN IN OUR WEST.
BKN TO OVC SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS A LOBE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH S WI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
510 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HELP FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW IS REACHING
AREAS FROM VILAS COUNTY TO IRON MOUNTAIN. COMPLICATING MATTERS
FURTHER IS A SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTATED ALMOST NORTH-SOUTH OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE FROM WAUPACA TO JUST NORTH OF GREEN BAY.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT SNOW TRENDS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
TONIGHT...THE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH HANGING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO HOLD UP THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WHILE GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP AROUND IT. WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. BEST CHANCES
RESIDE IN A CORRIDOR FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT THIS AREA
COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY SINCE THE TROUGH IS SUCH A SMALL SCALE FEATURE.
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW COULD ALSO IMPACT EASTERN WI THAT COULD LEAD
TO A DUSTING. INCREASED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...PERHAPS A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAKING SNOWFALL
CHANCES THE HIGHEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH TWO OR THREE TENTHS IN THE AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROLONG SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES A
LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING. BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER OR NOT THE POWERFUL OHIO VALLEY
STORM WILL CLIP EAST CENTRAL WI ON WED/WED NGT...POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE WED-THU NGT AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MERGING WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD BRING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO
NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND CLIPS EAST
CENTRAL WI WITH THE NW PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE ON WED
AND WED NGT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...AND WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE LAKESHORE
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM LATE WED
THROUGH THURSDAY NGT. A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER NC WI ON THU/THU NGT...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN VILAS COUNTY.
GFS AND ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF H8 TEMPS AROUND -30 C
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MODEL BLEND TEMPS BY
2-3 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE MODELS SHOW CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN ON LAKE MICHIGAN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPPING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS A
LITTLE CHALLENGING TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS NOTED IN THE
STRATOCUMULUS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE
FORCING LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT/S
INTERESTING TO NOTE...THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG IT. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ARE
ALL SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE LINGERED
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM JUST
ENOUGH ON SUNDAY FOR SUNDAY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...IF WE CAN
GENERATE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE ON RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
TUESDAY...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ALOFT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND SPINS UP A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLOSER
TO HOME...THE FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN DEVELOPING. ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN HELPS TO CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH
CROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM CANADA.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST AND
HAS JUST RECENTLY MOVED OVER KRST. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE OVER KLSE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THIS DECK OVER WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ONCE SUNSET COMES
WHETHER THIS WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OR FILL BACK IN. THE 20.12Z NAM
AND 20.15Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WAS THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND AND KEEP THE CEILINGS
MVFR...ALTHOUGH CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR AT
KRST. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF TO THE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT...ALSO CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
KRST WITH SOME FOG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT SNOW MELT IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS FOR NOW AND LET
LATER SHIFTS SEE IF THIS TREND DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
RISES CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW. AN
ICE JAM HAS FORMED ON THE GRANT RIVER AT BURTON. MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AGRICULTURAL LAND WAS REPORTED BY LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRANT RIVER WITH AREAS
MAINLY AROUND BURTON BEING IMPACTED. RIVER LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
FALL AT BURTON...BUT ADDITIONAL ICE JAMMING IS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE IS ON THE RISE...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIMES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS CLOSELY AS THE SNOW MELT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1115 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CONCERN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 20.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO JUST WEST OF EAU CLAIRE. LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAP 0.5 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH SO THAT MOST AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL WRF SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
CHECK...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE
ALLOWING AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. A SUSPECTED ICE JAM IS
LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON EARLY THIS
MORNING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE STRONGEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
CAN OCCUR...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON NEAR SURFACE
VALUES. THUS...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BUT LIQUID AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. IF SNOW DOES
DEVELOP FOR COLDER AREAS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION...THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO SUNDAY/S SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 18Z...BUT MODEST WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONCE AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES AS BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...A COOLER PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST AND
HAS JUST RECENTLY MOVED OVER KRST. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE OVER KLSE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THIS DECK OVER WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ONCE SUNSET COMES
WHETHER THIS WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OR FILL BACK IN. THE 20.12Z NAM
AND 20.15Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WAS THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND AND KEEP THE CEILINGS
MVFR...ALTHOUGH CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR AT
KRST. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF TO THE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT...ALSO CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
KRST WITH SOME FOG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT SNOW MELT IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS FOR NOW AND LET
LATER SHIFTS SEE IF THIS TREND DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON IN GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN HAS RISEN
APPROXIMATELY 13 FT SINCE FRIDAY AT 18Z AND IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OF 18 FT. THIS IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN ICE JAM THAN SNOW
MELT RUNOFF WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER NEARBY RIVER GAUGES. LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SLOW WATER MOVEMENT AT THE COUNTY ROAD N
OVERPASS...BUT VISIBILITY WAS LIMITED DUE TO NIGHTFALL. IT IS
ASSUMED AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM IS CAUSING THESE WATER RISES. A
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THE VICINITY OF BURTON AND WILL
BE REASSESSED AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT RUNOFF TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE RIVER
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
OTHER ICE JAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CONCERN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 20.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO JUST WEST OF EAU CLAIRE. LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAP 0.5 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH SO THAT MOST AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL WRF SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
CHECK...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE
ALLOWING AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. A SUSPECTED ICE JAM IS
LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON EARLY THIS
MORNING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE STRONGEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
CAN OCCUR...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON NEAR SURFACE
VALUES. THUS...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BUT LIQUID AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. IF SNOW DOES
DEVELOP FOR COLDER AREAS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION...THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO SUNDAY/S SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 18Z...BUT MODEST WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONCE AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES AS BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...A COOLER PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 16Z-17Z. MORE
NORTHWESTERLY SFC-700MB FLOW TO THEN ADVECT SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS /MAINLY MVFR/ SOUTHEAST INTO/ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE STUCK UNDER
A RATHER STRONG INVERSION NEAR 900MB...THE THE CLOUDS THEN LOOK TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWEST/NORTH AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON IN GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN HAS RISEN
APPROXIMATELY 13 FT SINCE FRIDAY AT 18Z AND IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OF 18 FT. THIS IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN ICE JAM THAN SNOW
MELT RUNOFF WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER NEARBY RIVER GAUGES. LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SLOW WATER MOVEMENT AT THE COUNTY ROAD N
OVERPASS...BUT VISIBILITY WAS LIMITED DUE TO NIGHTFALL. IT IS
ASSUMED AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM IS CAUSING THESE WATER RISES. A
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THE VICINITY OF BURTON AND WILL
BE REASSESSED AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT RUNOFF TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE RIVER
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
OTHER ICE JAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CONCERN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 20.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO JUST WEST OF EAU CLAIRE. LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAP 0.5 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH SO THAT MOST AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL WRF SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
CHECK...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE
ALLOWING AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. A SUSPECTED ICE JAM IS
LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON EARLY THIS
MORNING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE STRONGEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
CAN OCCUR...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON NEAR SURFACE
VALUES. THUS...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BUT LIQUID AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. IF SNOW DOES
DEVELOP FOR COLDER AREAS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION...THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO SUNDAY/S SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 18Z...BUT MODEST WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONCE AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES AS BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...A COOLER PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MESO MODELS MOVING TOWARD BRINGING A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY
ACROSS ND/SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HRRR/RAP13/
NAM12 ALL SLIDING THEM ACROSS KRST/KLSE BEFORE 18Z. THE NAM WOULD
THEN HOLD ONTO THESE CLOUDS WELL INTO SAT NIGHT. A LOT OF SINKING
AIR THOUGH...PER COLD AIR ADVECTION/QG DIVERGENCE...AND SOME
QUESTION IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOUD DECK WILL REACH. STEERING
CURRENTS COULD KEEP THE SOUTHERN EDGE JUST NORTH TOO. GETTING
ENOUGH CONSENSUS THOUGH TO ADD 1.5-2.5 KFT MENTION FOR BOTH SITES...
DESPITE CONFIDENCE BEING SHAKY ON THE MATTER. COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OF THAT DECK /IF IT MOVES IN/ EARLY FRI EVENING...OR IT
COULD HANG AROUND. ANTICIPATE UPDATES AS SATELLITE TRENDS AND
LATER MODEL RUNS ADD SOME CLARITY TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN AT KLSE...WITH RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT THROUGH 09Z OR SO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON IN GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN HAS RISEN
APPROXIMATELY 13 FT SINCE FRIDAY AT 18Z AND IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OF 18 FT. THIS IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN ICE JAM THAN SNOW
MELT RUNOFF WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER NEARBY RIVER GAUGES. LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SLOW WATER MOVEMENT AT THE COUNTY ROAD N
OVERPASS...BUT VISIBILITY WAS LIMITED DUE TO NIGHTFALL. IT IS
ASSUMED AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM IS CAUSING THESE WATER RISES. A
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THE VICINITY OF BURTON AND WILL
BE REASSESSED AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT RUNOFF TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE RIVER
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
OTHER ICE JAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S....BUT WITH A FEW IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.
THE FIRST OF NOTE WAS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH HAS
HELPED BRING THE STRONG WINDS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. DESPITE 900MB WIND CORE OF 50-60 KT TRAVERSING ALL OF IOWA
INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL...THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER ENDED UP GOING RIGHT AROUND OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
925MB TEMPS COOLED QUITE A BIT TOO...DROPPING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z TO
2-6C NOW PER RAP ANALYSIS. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM I-35 WESTWARD INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE NEXT POTENT LOOKING TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS...THOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT IMPACTED
THE AREA TODAY. A THIRD TROUGH WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING WAS
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MN AND WI TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION IMPACT WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE POTENT NATURE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT THE RAP HAS A CORE OF 40-55 KT 925MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION BEHIND THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THESE STRONGER
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT A 10-20 MPH BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A 925MB TEMP WARM SURGE TO 6-12C
AT 06Z SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH A LOT OF THE
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN SFC-
925MB WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH NORTHWEST...CAUSING 925MB TEMPS TO FALL
TO 2-7C AT 12Z.
ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SHORTWAVE IS TO CONTINUE FEEDING COOLER 925MB AIR INTO THE
REGION...DROPPING 1-2C THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS SOUTH INTO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-
94. MORE SUN OVERALL MAY HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 DUE TO
DISSIPATING SNOWPACK AND WARMEST 925MB TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGHLIGHTS OF INTEREST...
CURRENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MODELS PROG TO SWING MOST OF IT
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN IL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE TRACK THAT APPEARS TO MARCH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE 19.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH IT...HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE DRY.
MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BAND. GIVEN THE
TROUGH JUST COMING ONSHORE NOW...FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. UP THE EAST
COAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE LINGERING TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. UNDERSCORE MIGHT AS THE 19.12Z ECMWF REALLY BACKED OFF ON
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DUE TO A SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
BRIEF WARM UP ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. ASSUMING A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOSES THE SNOWPACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP COUNTERACT SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR. THE BIGGEST IMPACT COULD BE ON LOWS WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF
WITH INDICATIONS IN DAYS 8-10 OF THE 19.12Z ECMWF AND CFS RUN FROM
THE 18TH FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAD BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MESO MODELS MOVING TOWARD BRINGING A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY
ACROSS ND/SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 ALL SLIDING THEM ACROSS KRST/KLSE BEFORE 18Z. THE
NAM WOULD THEN HOLD ONTO THESE CLOUDS WELL INTO SAT NIGHT. A LOT OF
SINKING AIR THOUGH...PER COLD AIR ADVECTION/QG DIVERGENCE...AND SOME
QUESTION IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOUD DECK WILL REACH. STEERING
CURRENTS COULD KEEP THE SOUTHERN EDGE JUST NORTH TOO. GETTING ENOUGH
CONSENSUS THOUGH TO ADD 1.5-2.5 KFT MENTION FOR BOTH SITES...DESPITE
CONFIDENCE BEING SHAKY ON THE MATTER. COULD SEE SOME CLEARING OF
THAT DECK /IF IT MOVES IN/ EARLY FRI EVENING...OR IT COULD HANG
AROUND. ANTICIPATE UPDATES AS SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATER MODEL RUNS
ADD SOME CLARITY TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN AT KLSE...WITH RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT THROUGH 09Z OR SO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SNOW PACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS
WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE MELTING THE SNOW. WITH 1-2 INCH
WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE REMAINING SNOW PACK...COMBINED WITH A
MAINLY FROZEN GROUND...EXPECT RISES ON MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RISES NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
AFTER SATURDAY EVENING SNOW PACK MELTING LOOKS TO SLOW AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND FALL BACK
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING IT
FROM ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STARTED OUT AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE
CHANGED TO SNOW OVER VILAS CO. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES
SOUTH OF VILAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE WESTERN FOX
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE LOW...HAVE HAD A FEW GUSTS APPROACH AND
SURPASS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH) OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE AREAS. CENTRAL WI HAS REMAINED WELL BELOW CRITERIA SO
FAR. WITH COORDINATION FROM ARX...WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
CENTRAL WI. EASTERN WI IS MORE PRONE TO THE HIGHER GUSTS SO WILL
LET THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR THIS AREA. WIND GUSTS AND PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THOUGH PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WI BY MID TO LATE EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN WI FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PROLONGING THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER THERE...WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
EVENING OVER EASTERN WI. THEN GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THINKING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER MOST OF NOAM AS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE AND AMPLIFIES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGING TO MORE RAIN OR
MIXED RAN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WARM ABOVE FREEZING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
CLEAR SKIES HAVE BRIEFLY WORKED OVER THE REGION THIS FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT VFR CLOUDS WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL WORK RAPIDLY
INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
THROUGH WITH COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A WARM FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND DRY
AIR MASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION. LATEST RADAR LOOP
STILL INDICATING A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE BEYOND MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING A WARM SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LATE EVENING TEMPS STILL QUITE...RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR OH VALLEY...WITH
MODELS STILL INDICATING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SLIGHTLY
BACKING H5 HEIGHTS WITH AN INCREASE IN H85 WARM ADVECTION. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
QPF OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH BUT THESE AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN NEAR 0.4 OF AN
INCH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BECAUSE OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A WEDGE PATTERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE
MODELS HAVE QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS DEPICT HIGH
SHEAR WITH A 50- TO 60-KNOT H85 JET. THE MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST
ERODING THE WEDGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT TIME MAY BE
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 10 TO 30
PERCENT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY
DAYBREAK THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
DAYBREAK. WITH THE RAIN CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 16Z THROUGH 23/00Z AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES OVER THE AREA...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
CAE/CUB HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
AGS/DNL/OGB ATTM. AFTER 23/00Z WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LOW MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
ESPECIALLY AT CAE/CUB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1147 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
HAVE UPDATED THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND
ARROWHEAD ZONES WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVE
ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL BELOW ZERO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 449 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR FROM MOOSE LAKE TO CLOQUET. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE GRIDS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SNOW IN A CORRIDOR
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL FGEN...FROM ROUGHLY MOOSE LAKE TO SOLON
SPRINGS AND THE HAYWARD AREA THIS EVENING. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH
ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS
TIME...LIMITING THE FZDZ THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
AT 300 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA.
THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT NNW FLOW...EXCEPT FOR EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
WAS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING FROM THE NORTH. THE NW
FORECAST AREA WAS ALREADY CLEAR. THERE WAS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...MAINLY FROM THE CONVERGENCE OF THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND NNW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THE LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THERE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO FOR AREAS FROM
THE DULUTH AREA TO THE ISABELLA AREA.
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE
WEST...WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE WEAK WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE CLEARING THIS EVENING...SUCH AS THE DLHWRF
AND GFS MOS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUD COVER.
A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY
MONDAY...AND A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHLAND.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY IN PART
DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SOME AREAS OF THE NW FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROF AMPLIFICATION FORECASTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS..WITH THE DULUTH CWA RESIDING UNDERNEATH NW FLOW ALOFT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES AS A GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK INTO MORE OF THE CORE OF AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS OCCURS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE DISTURBANCE FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME IS
STARTING TO LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN ADDITION TO
STRONGER AND LONGER DURATION SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING..SOME ENHANCED
LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT IS IMPLIED WITHIN THE LATEST MODELS RUNS
ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN..AND CROSS SECTIONS ALSO REVEAL A
CONSIDERABLY LESS-STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DETAILS
REMAIN TO SHAKE OUT..BUT WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AREA-WIDE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND ALSO INCREASED SNOW AMOUNT
FORECASTS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER S/W
TROF DROPS ESEWD INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF TO OUR EAST..WHICH
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL..BUT NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN AS
925/850 TEMPS COOL BY 8-12 DEGREES C FROM TUE MORNING TO THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT AN EVEN MORE ROBUST SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEKEND..WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/LK EFFECT ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND TEMPS
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WE DID LOWER LOW
TEMP FORECASTS FROM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE A BIT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME..BUT FOR NOW DID NOT LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AS ANY SUN THIS
TIME OF YEAR TYPICALLY RESULTS IN 35-40 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGES DUE
TO THE FORESTED AREAS LOWER ALBEDO AND STRONGER LATE FEB SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH MOVES
THROUGH. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND AND CLEAR SKIES KHYR MAY SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
TIME LAGGED RAP GUIDANCE.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING
MVFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON MONDAY. STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL EXTEND
FROM THIS FRONT AS THE LATEST NMM/ARW KEEP MOST OF SNOW CONFINED
TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF. KHIB/KINL ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE VISBY REDUCTION WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FROM 19Z-21Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 7 29 22 33 / 70 20 40 60
INL -10 29 23 31 / 10 50 60 50
BRD 17 33 24 35 / 10 10 40 50
HYR 14 32 21 36 / 30 10 20 50
ASX 14 31 22 36 / 70 20 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1057 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016
The going forecast looks to be on track. The biggest challenge is
how to handle the stratus which continues to filter south out of
Iowa and central Illinois into our area. There are enough breaks
in the clouds to make it difficult to figure out what the
percentage of sky cover is and the southern edges of the clouds
keep evaporating as they move south. RAP 950-900mb RH seems to be
doing an OK job handling the clouds at this time...but it might be
too cloudy later tonight. At any rate, cold advection on northerly
flow should keep temperatures dropping tonight...so the going
temperature forecast still looks good.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016
Expect dry conditions tonight as a shortwave trough over the
Great Lakes moves quickly off to the east leaving the area under
weak subsidence. Weak north to northeasterly low level flow will
bring some of the low clouds south into the northern and western
parts of the area by late tonight. Went a bit above on MOS
guidance tonight based on expected low clouds moving in and
current dewpoints.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016
Still expect Monday and Monday night to be dry with northeasterly
flow into the area under weak west southwesterly flow aloft.
Temperatures will be close to seasonable normals.
While there are some questions about the storm that will move across
the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday, it appears that there is
the potential for 1-2+ inches of snow over the central and eastern
CWA during this period. Main questions will be temperatures as the
lower atmosphere will be close to freezing, and current forecast is
a mix of rain and snow. Any change in the temperature forecast
could mean more rain and less accumulation, or more snow and more
accumulation.
Have leaned more on the global models as the NAM has not shown much
continuity over the past 24 hours. Still looks like a trough will
dive southeast over the western CONUS on Monday and close off over
the southern Plains on Tuesday before lifting out over Mid South and
the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. This setup would be
favorable for the deformation zone to move across the central or
southeast part of the CWA.
This system will then lift out on Wednesday evening and dry weather
is expected into next weekend as upper flow switches from
northwesterly to zonal. Seasonable normals are expected during the
period.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2016
Surface ridge over the northern Plains will build southeastward
into our area. Northerly surface winds late tonight will veer
around to a nely direction on Monday. Low level MVFR cloudiness
around 2000-3000 feet in height across parts of IA, northern MO
and northern IL will advect southward into the taf sites late
tonight. The cloud ceiling will likely rise into the VFR catagory
Monday afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level MVFR cloudiness across northern IL
will advect into STL late tonight. The ceiling height will likely
rise into the VFR catagory Monday afternoon. Weak nly surface
wind late tonight will veer around to a nely direction Monday
morning.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
WELL WEST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...REACHING FLORIDA BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SW TO N AND EVENTUALLY NE AS THE FRONT OOZES SOUTH WITH
TIME.
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE ON INCREASING SW
FLOW...UP TO 35 TO 40 KT AROUND 2 KFT. THE COLUMN DOES STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE IN THE 3-10 KFT LAYER. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS DRY ABOVE
AND BELOW THIS LAYER AND SO ANY RAIN THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND
WILL BE LIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH 12Z. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE/HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE
QPF FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NONE UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
IT WAS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS EVE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A WELL MIXED COLUMN...GIVEN STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A BALMY NIGHT BY
FEBRUARY STANDARDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP TO THE MID
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAKES VERY SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
NORTH-TO- SOUTH GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10
DEGREES AS AREAS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE MORE TIME TO HEAT UP
BEFORE THE SURFACE WEDGE MOVES IN. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE
WEDGE WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FOR RAIN CHANCES THAT RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. WE STAY
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY BUT MODELS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER
OMEGA FIELDS SO QPF PROSPECTS SEEM LOW EVEN THOUGH ACTUAL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING RAINFALL REMAINS QUITE ELEVATED. QPF IS
ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT DECENT
TOTALS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF RANGE OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT GIVEN
THE PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(NOT SURFACE) FEEL MOST OF THAT REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
YIELDING ANOTHER GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO
ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BY
WEDNESDAY MAY PRECLUDE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO STACKED
LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY ON WED. THE SYSTEM LIFTS
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WED MORNING. A MODEST INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR...SETTING UP A TYPICAL WINTER TIME
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THE LOW WILL DRAG ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE TOTAL QPF MAY END UP BEING ON THE LOW
SIDE. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEING
SPREAD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A WRAP AROUND DRY SLOT WED
NIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO ACQUIRE SOME NEGATIVE TILT BUT
THIS LIKELY OCCURS TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT THU AND FRI WITH COLD
ADVECTION DROPPING TEMPS BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THU CONTINUES THROUGH FRI NIGHT KEEPING THE REGION DRY.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH
MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK NEAR CLIMO BUT
DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO MVFR/IFR ON MONDAY WITH LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND SHOWERS.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
ANY IMPACT ON ANY TERMINALS WOULD BE NULL. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER
DAYBREAK...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH
WINDS VEERING AND BECOMING WESTERLY...NORTHERLY...AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10
KTS. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY DUE TO LOW
CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND -RA/VCSH. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN...LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ANTICIPATED THRU
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH 5 AM. SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE A PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST WATERS NEAR 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SW TO N AND EVENTUALLY NE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS MON AND MON
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 20
KT...BUT SW WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 5
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE CAPPED AT 15KT THROUGH THE VEER AND WAVE FACES MAY STEEPEN
SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL HEIGHT TO STAY FAIRLY STEADY. LIGHTER WINDS
ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BACKS UP INTO THE REGION AND STALLS.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLACKEN THE GRADIENT UP AND DOWN THE COAST. ADDITIONAL VEERING AND
POSSIBLE SPEED INCREASES AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AND A STRONG PRE-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME LURKS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED WILL APPROACH
30 KT LATE WED AND WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS OVER 10 FT WED WITH
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUING INTO FRI MORNING. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF SCA
HEADLINE THROUGH THE END OF THU NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND GRADIENT
START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS
FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DID EXPAND POPS A BIT TO THE SOUTH
FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
200 TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM
CROSBY TOWARD TIOGA AND NEW TOWN AS OF 05 UTC. THE 00 UTC GFS HAS
SIMULATED THIS ACTIVITY WELL AND TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY
TOWARD CARRINGTON BETWEEN 09 AND 12 UTC. EARLIER WE THOUGHT THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING SINCE IT HAD A
CONVECTIVE LOOK TO IT IN NORTHEASTERN MT...BUT THAT HAS NOT BEEN
THE CASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE. WE
ARE ADVERTISING A BIT SLOWER HOURLY INCREASE TO POPS IN FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ND...WHERE FLURRIES HAVE ONLY BEGUN BEING REPORTED BY THE
ROLLA AWOS AT 0315 UTC. ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...WE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ND AS
EVENING TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROWING...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF MUCH FOG FORMATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
STRATUS THINNED AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 2230 AND 2330 UTC...SO THE FOCUS OF
THIS UPDATE WAS ON REFINING SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN
EXPECTATION THAT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT REDEVELOP DESPITE
SUNSET. THAT IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND ESPECIALLY ON
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH BEST MATCH THOSE TRENDS. WE ALSO
ADDED A LOW-END POP FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST ND THROUGH 03
UTC BASED ON CONVECTIVE-LOOKING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
AT 2 PM CST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
TO THE EAST A LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE TONIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDS BRING
LIKELY POPS TO A SMALL REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
ON MONDAY EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. COOLER NORTH
AND EAST UNDER CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LONG TERM APPEARS MILD AND QUIET.
A FEW FASTING MOVING WAVES MAKE SPARK SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL
SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN
THIS WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND.
IF THIS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE A RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO FAMILIAR
WINTER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY LIFT LATE...BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
CENTRAL INTO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW STRATUS IS BEING ADVERTISED BY
MODELS FOR MONDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1110 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
200 TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM
CROSBY TOWARD TIOGA AND NEW TOWN AS OF 05 UTC. THE 00 UTC GFS HAS
SIMULATED THIS ACTIVITY WELL AND TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY
TOWARD CARRINGTON BETWEEN 09 AND 12 UTC. EARLIER WE THOUGHT THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING SINCE IT HAD A
CONVECTIVE LOOK TO IT IN NORTHEASTERN MT...BUT THAT HAS NOT BEEN
THE CASE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE. WE
ARE ADVERTISING A BIT SLOWER HOURLY INCREASE TO POPS IN FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ND...WHERE FLURRIES HAVE ONLY BEGUN BEING REPORTED BY THE
ROLLA AWOS AT 0315 UTC. ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...WE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ND AS
EVENING TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROWING...BUT THE MOST
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF MUCH FOG FORMATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
STRATUS THINNED AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 2230 AND 2330 UTC...SO THE FOCUS OF
THIS UPDATE WAS ON REFINING SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN
EXPECTATION THAT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT REDEVELOP DESPITE
SUNSET. THAT IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND ESPECIALLY ON
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH BEST MATCH THOSE TRENDS. WE ALSO
ADDED A LOW-END POP FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST ND THROUGH 03
UTC BASED ON CONVECTIVE-LOOKING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
AT 2 PM CST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
TO THE EAST A LARGE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLEARING LINE TONIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTH TONIGHT. MODEL BLENDS BRING
LIKELY POPS TO A SMALL REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.
ON MONDAY EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. COOLER NORTH
AND EAST UNDER CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LONG TERM APPEARS MILD AND QUIET.
A FEW FASTING MOVING WAVES MAKE SPARK SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL
SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A TYPICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN
THIS WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND.
IF THIS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE A RATHER ABRUPT RETURN TO FAMILIAR
WINTER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MVFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND TOWARD THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY LIFT TONIGHT...BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR THROUGH 12
UTC WITH LOCAL MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1249 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND STRONG WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP IN TERMS ON WHERE AND
HOW MUCH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW. CURRENT NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THIS MAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF OCCURRING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY...TO BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY IN A REGIME
LACKING MOISTURE AND FORCING.
POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH
OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PROVIDING THICKENING
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY...BOOSTED
TO THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VLY TO EJECT NE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WED AND THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS NE INTO THE REGION. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLN
WHICH TAKES THE DEEP SFC LOW INTO SRN OHIO BY WED EVENING. FORCING
IS ENHANCED BY H8 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 45-50 KT LLJ AHEAD OF
THE SFC WAVE. BASED ON THIS CLUSTERING OF SOLN/S WILL RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
DUE TO WAA WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW
LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS STILL
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO TIMING OF CHANGE OVER.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY INTO SE CANADA. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH LATE WED INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING
COLD BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO DIGGING S/W
WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SOUTH THRU OHIO VALLEY SAT AFTN/EVENING. HAVE MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THIS STRONG FRONT AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMP WISE...ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HIGHS ON WED WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. IN
CAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SOME MODERATION SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND KEEP A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERMIT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO ADVECT A LOW STRATUS DECK TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE 3KFT STRATUS DECK OVER NW OH AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN INDIANA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A FAVORABLE MOTION TO
AFFECT KDAY THIS MORNING.
CI WILL STREAM OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND
SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEAST AND SOME FAIR WX CU COULD DEVELOP FROM 2-3KFT TODAY BUT
SHOULD NOT EVOLVE BEYOND FEW-SCT AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING
AND THE CI WILL HAMPER LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING TODAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
230 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY BRINGING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER TEXAS
TONIGHT...THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GLAKES IS PUSHING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD STAY
MSTLY CLEAR THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...WHILE SOME AREAS OF SHALLOW STRATO CU DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN.
THE COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKES WILL TRIGGER A FLURRY OR
TWO TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL
HINT AT INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ
IS POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TOUGH CALL ON VSBY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH KMDT
AND KLNS. THV REMAINS AT MVFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE REST OF THE
REGION CONTINUES TO DRY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SO EXPECTING
MAINLY VFR CONDS...HOWEVER HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP IN BETWEEN
10Z TO 13Z.
THE OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS FORMING AT
KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW AND A
COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT POINT
TOWARD ARND A 50 PCT POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 06Z-13Z.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 18Z ON MONDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS
A LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE.
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
105 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINAL SHOWER REMNANTS TRACKING OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GLAKS IS NUDGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP AROUND OR
SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS
AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKES WILL
TRIGGER A FLURRY OR TWO TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT
INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TOUGH CALL ON VSBY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH KMDT
AND KLNS. THV REMAINS AT MVFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE REST OF THE
REGION CONTINUES TO DRY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SO EXPECTING
MAINLY VFR CONDS...HOWEVER HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP IN BETWEEN
10Z TO 13Z.
THE OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS FORMING AT
KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW AND A
COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT POINT
TOWARD ARND A 50 PCT POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 06Z-13Z.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 18Z ON MONDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS
A LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE.
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
328 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY HAS FINALLY
TRICKLED OUT OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS LEAVING CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE AREN`T
FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARMTH TONIGHT BUT WE ARE STILL RUNNING A
SOLID 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE ARE A FEW WILD CARDS IN TODAY`S FORECAST...STARTING WITH POPS
TODAY. WHILE WE ARE IN A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MOST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH COULD
BRING SOME SMALL POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING MORE THAN THAT. IN FACT...THE
HRRR IS NOW SUGGESTING WHAT THE EURO HAS BEEN HINTING AT THE LAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND THAT`S CONSIDERABLY MORE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
IS GIVING THEM SHOWERS AND A FEW TS THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR...SO WILL FOLLOW MORE OF
THIS THINKING FOR TODAY`S POP FORECAST -- MINUS THE THUNDER --
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS WE MOVE TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS
MEANS A DRY PERIOD PRIOR TO NOON...BUT WE QUICKLY HAVE TO START
FOCUSING UPSTREAM AGAIN AND THE BIG SYSTEM OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY INTENSE SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING OVER EAST TEXAS AND BY MID TO LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MIDDLE TN SHOULD BEGIN SEEING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES NEWD AND TRACKS OVER OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONE WILL
PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE US FROM ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE. WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER WORDING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE MID-STATE.
AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW PULLS OUT
OF THE REGION AND UP THE EAST COAST...IT CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT. THE
FORECAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 975-980MB.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST TO ME THAT THE WRAP AROUND CAA WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG...AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS CHANGEOVER AS WELL. IF THERE`S ANY GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF
THIS...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO
ATTM I`M NOT EXPECTING WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS OR ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MID-STATE. HOWEVER...ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
BE MADE FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS LINGERING SNOW WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAIN REARS ITS HEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE JUST RAIN ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE MID STATE
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLDS AND
VSBYS WILL STILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CONDENSATION
DEFICITS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH...A SFC LOW WILL WORK ACROSS AL AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE CSV AREA LATE IN THE TAF PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 56 42 59 52 56 / 0 20 60 90 80
CLARKSVILLE 54 37 55 49 50 / 0 10 60 90 80
CROSSVILLE 54 45 55 51 58 / 20 40 50 90 90
COLUMBIA 56 44 57 52 54 / 20 20 70 90 80
LAWRENCEBURG 56 45 59 52 54 / 30 30 70 90 80
WAVERLY 55 39 56 49 51 / 0 10 70 90 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................UNGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
UPDATE...
AT 8 PM... SURFACE ANALYSIS STRETCHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG A LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS NORTHEAST TO CAMDEN
TENNESSEE. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY EASE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WHILE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. ALSO SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. STILL...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
ZDM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID WEEK COULD BRING BOTH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER TO THE MIDSOUTH.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CAMDEN TENNESSEE TO
WYNNE ARKANSAS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...STARTING TO
SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
THIS BAND BLOSSOMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR ABERDEEN TO
GREENVILLE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.
THERE ARE ALSO MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ARKLATEX
AREA 18Z TUESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS
THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. BEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUPELO
INCLUDING CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES. SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY
3 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUTTING OFF SO THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES GET AN
INCH AS THE MODELS LOOK RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SEVERE WEATHER OR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT.
VCSH AT TUP POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AT MEM SHORTLY BUT PERSIST AT TUP. IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT TUP. NNE WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 4-7 KTS AFTER 23/00Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1113 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HELP FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW IS REACHING
AREAS FROM VILAS COUNTY TO IRON MOUNTAIN. COMPLICATING MATTERS
FURTHER IS A SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTATED ALMOST NORTH-SOUTH OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE FROM WAUPACA TO JUST NORTH OF GREEN BAY.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT SNOW TRENDS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
TONIGHT...THE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH HANGING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO HOLD UP THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WHILE GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP AROUND IT. WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. BEST CHANCES
RESIDE IN A CORRIDOR FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT THIS AREA
COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY SINCE THE TROUGH IS SUCH A SMALL SCALE FEATURE.
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW COULD ALSO IMPACT EASTERN WI THAT COULD LEAD
TO A DUSTING. INCREASED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...PERHAPS A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAKING SNOWFALL
CHANCES THE HIGHEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH TWO OR THREE TENTHS IN THE AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROLONG SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES A
LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING. BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER OR NOT THE POWERFUL OHIO VALLEY
STORM WILL CLIP EAST CENTRAL WI ON WED/WED NGT...POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE WED-THU NGT AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MERGING WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD BRING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO
NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND CLIPS EAST
CENTRAL WI WITH THE NW PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE ON WED
AND WED NGT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...AND WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE LAKESHORE
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM LATE WED
THROUGH THURSDAY NGT. A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER NC WI ON THU/THU NGT...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN VILAS COUNTY.
GFS AND ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF H8 TEMPS AROUND -30 C
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MODEL BLEND TEMPS BY
2-3 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE MODELS SHOW CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN ON LAKE MICHIGAN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED
AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
SHOWERS AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPPING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
418 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
AFTER A BRIEF BOUT WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OVERNIGHT THE WORK WEEK
BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING...A TREND WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TWO CHANCES FOR SNOW...FIRST TODAY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR A QUICK 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST INTENSE TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT
SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES MILD AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS TODAY AND WARM AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MILD TEMPS TUESDAY COULD LEAD TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST IN THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM A MUCH STRONGER POSITIVELY TILTED
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NEAR CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS
MORNING HEADED SOUTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO HEAD TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
JUST PART OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM AN
UPPER LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY...AND BY TUESDAY MORNING THIS TROUGH
AXIS WILL SPAN FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUPPORTED BY A NARROW 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY CAUSING THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO AMPLIFY GREATLY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR.
AT LOWER LEVELS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT LOW LEVELS ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PEAKS TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THROUGH TUESDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH BEGINS...AND WHILE THE TRUE SFC COLD FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER THIS SFC TROUGH WILL KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING EAST ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM THE MID-LEVEL PVA COULD RESULT
IN SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH FAST-ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CREATING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW SQUALLS ARE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD TO
LOW/MID 30S ELSEWHERE TODAY...THEN LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY WHICH IS ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH IS 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW...OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER EASTERN
AREAS IN THE EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE
EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY COLD...SO WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST BEFORE BACKING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE AIRMASS IS QUITE
DRY...850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -8C AND THE FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE ANTICYCLONIC. WE DO EXPECT SOME LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES AS FAR WEST AS THE TWIN PORTS AND
TWO HARBORS ON WEDNESDAY.
A DEEP LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE
TOWARD QUEBEC BY THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE REST OF THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL OCCUR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH
SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKING MORE LIKELY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS LATE IN
THE PERIOD...MAINLY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THIS
EVENINGS SOLUTIONS DELAY THIS COLDER AIR AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE 22/00Z RUN OF THE GFS NOW
SHOWS 850MB TEMPS AROUND ZERO OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AT 12Z
SATURDAY...AND THE 21/12Z RUN HAD -34C AT THE SAME TIME. THE ECMWF
ALSO SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN COOL TO THE TEENS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN THESE TEMPERATURES IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT
MODEL VARIABILITY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A
CHANGE BACK TO WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED WOULD MEAN MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH MOVES
THROUGH. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND AND CLEAR SKIES KHYR MAY SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
TIME LAGGED RAP GUIDANCE.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING
MVFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON MONDAY. STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL EXTEND
FROM THIS FRONT AS THE LATEST NMM/ARW KEEP MOST OF SNOW CONFINED
TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF. KHIB/KINL ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE VISBY REDUCTION WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FROM 19Z-21Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 33 14 / 20 50 70 10
INL 29 23 30 7 / 70 80 70 0
BRD 32 26 36 16 / 20 50 60 0
HYR 33 21 36 20 / 10 30 60 20
ASX 32 23 36 21 / 10 30 60 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
540 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2016
Surface high pressure will dominate the sensible weather both today
and tonight. Temperature forecast for today is a bit problematic
as stratus which currently exists is fairly patchy in nature leading
to a highly uncertain cloud forecast for today. Regardless...with a
warm start to the day for this time of year high temperatures will
be at least several degrees above normal. Highs are expected to
range from the mid 40s to low 50s across the region.
For tonight...cloud cover will be on the increase late tonight ahead
of the potent system coming out of the southwest US. Light
northeasterly winds with lows in the 30s are expected.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2016
What a difference a day makes. Models are a bit colder with system
that approaches region beginning Tuesday. However, there are
differences on track of system as well as thermal profile. At this
time feel that 00z runs of GFS and ECMWF have best handle, but will
temper snowfall amounts.
As precipitation spreads northward on Tuesday, it will be warm
enough to be all rain, as highs will be in the mid to upper 40s.
Then as deepening surface low lifts from eastern TX northeastward
towards the Ohio Valley, it will have quite a bit of dynamics, but
as stated earlier the thermal profile is a bit tricky. As colder air
is pulled into the region, rain to change over to a mix of rain and
snow Tuesday evening, then mostly snow for areas along and south of
the I-44 corridor in MO and I-70 corridor in IL after 06z Wednesday.
The period of the heaviest snow will be between midnight and noon
Wednesday. At this time there appears to be the potential for 1 to
5 inches of snowfall with locally higher amounts, mainly over the
eastern Ozarks and portions of southwestern Illinois. Once again
the St. Louis metro area will be on the edge with lower amounts to
the northwest of metro area and higher amounts to the south and
east of metro area. Any change in the the temperature forecast
could mean more rain and less accumulation, or more snow and more
accumulation. Another issue will be the winds, as surface low
strengthens and lifts northeastward, will see winds on the
increase from the northeast to north. Will see gusts up to 35 mph
at times Tuesday night and Wednesday.
System to exit region Wednesday evening with the precipitation
tapering off. Beyond that, dry and near normal temperatures for the
rest of the forecast period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Feb 22 2016
Difficult forecast with respect to clouds this morning. Satellite
imagery depicts two areas of widespread stratus...one along the
mid-Missouri River Valley northwest of the area and another
currently affecting the metro terminals with KSUS near the NW
edge. In between...patches of stratus may affect KUIN and KCOU at
least through the morning hours. Have higher confidence in metro
ceiling trends through this morning due to the greater coverage of
the stratus. RAP 900-925 hPa winds are light out of the northeast
so expect stratus to remain at the metro TAFs for most of this
morning...first eroding on the edge near KSUS and then KCPS more
toward the noon hour. For this afternoon and tonight...cannot rule
out additional borderline MVFR stratus but confidence too low
attm to mention. Otherwise...expect light northeast winds to
continue through the valid TAF period as surface high pressure
near the Great Lakes slowly slides eastward.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR stratus expected to hold until the late morning hours eroding
around 1600 UTC. Cannot rule out borderline MVFR stratus again
tonight but too low of confidence. As for winds...they will remain
light out of the northeast through early Tuesday.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 50 36 49 36 / 0 0 10 60
Quincy 44 30 46 31 / 0 0 5 20
Columbia 49 32 46 33 / 0 5 10 30
Jefferson City 50 33 48 34 / 0 0 20 30
Salem 49 33 50 37 / 0 5 10 90
Farmington 50 33 48 34 / 0 5 30 80
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1003 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE
TO STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS IN FOG. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 16Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
ADDED THREE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO
THOSE COUNTIES AND REPORTS OF DENSE FOG SPREADING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WERE
HARLAN...FRANKLIN...WEBSTER.
A STRATUS DECK OVER POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN KEEPING THE FOG AWAY IN
THAT AREA AND THE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK OUT OF
OUR NORTHEAST IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE
WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV
THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE
OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
GOING IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE
AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY
COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER
TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS
REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START
TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO
THIS PASSING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL
BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY
WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE
TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT
OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF
THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM
ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE
LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS
16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT
MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
810 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE
TO STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS IN FOG. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 16Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
ADDED THREE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO
THOSE COUNTIES AND REPORTS OF DENSE FOG SPREADING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WERE
HARLAN...FRANKLIN...WEBSTER.
A STRATUS DECK OVER POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN KEEPING THE FOG AWAY IN
THAT AREA AND THE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK OUT OF
OUR NORTHEAST IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE
WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV
THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE
OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
GOING IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE
AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY
COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER
TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS
REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START
TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO
THIS PASSING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL
BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY
WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE
TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT
OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF
THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM
ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE
LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS
16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT
MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-040-
046-047-060>062-072>076-082>086.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
632 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
ADDED THREE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO
THOSE COUNTIES AND REPORTS OF DENSE FOG SPREADING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WERE
HARLAN...FRANKLIN...WEBSTER.
A STRATUS DECK OVER POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN KEEPING THE FOG AWAY IN
THAT AREA AND THE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK OUT OF
OUR NORTHEAST IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE
WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV
THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE
OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
GOING IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE
AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY
COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER
TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS
REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START
TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO
THIS PASSING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL
BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY
WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE
TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT
OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF
THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM
ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE
LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS
16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT
MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-083>085.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
554 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE
WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV
THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE
OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
GOING IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE
AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY
COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER
TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS
REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START
TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO
THIS PASSING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL
BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY
WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE
TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT
OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF
THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM
ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE
LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS
16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT
MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE
OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
GOING IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE
AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY
COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER
TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS
REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START
TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO
THIS PASSING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL
BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY
WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE
TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT
OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF
THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM
ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE
LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AS LIFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...CURRENT TIMING IS
16Z...BUT POSSIBLE THAT MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOMING MORE S/SERLY
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...SPEEDS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10KTS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEPT
MENTION AS VCSH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
414 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE
OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
GOING IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE
AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY
COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER
TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS
REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START
TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO
THIS PASSING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL
BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY
WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE
TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT
OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF
THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM
ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE
LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEST RIGHT NEAR/JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS
PERIOD...WILL ADDRESS IN UPCOMING TAFS. MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WONT BE MUCH OF A ISSUE...OTHERS
SAY IT WILL. KEPT THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...WILL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF IT
DOES OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE SERLY...WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10-15 MPH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
923 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS (MAINLY IN INDIANA) AND STRATUS (NORTHERN
OHIO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO) HAVE COMPLICATED THE CLOUD
FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS IN PARTICULAR HAS NOT
SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF DISSIPATION...AND IS ACTUALLY STARTING TO
SPREAD FURTHER INTO CENTRAL OHIO.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT RAP DATA...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA) THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS FORCED A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES THERE...WITH
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE APPEARING ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR COULD ACTUALLY
EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA...WHERE MAX TEMPS NEAR 50 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WEAK CAA OVER NRN OHIO
HAS PRODUCED SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...CENTRAL OHIO AND THE WHITEWATER VALLEY. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE
E DURING THE DAY. CI CLOUDS LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
YESTERDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WHERE TEMPERATURES GOT WARMER
THAN FORECAST. BUMPED UP PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS...BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN
WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO AROUND 50 IN NRN KY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INVERTED SFC TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER ERN KY INTO WEST
VA. THIS FUNNELS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE FA...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE W AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SE TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO UNDER THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE MID 30S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.
ON TUESDAY...H5 S/W WORKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO TX. AS THIS
OCCURS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN ERN TX IN RESPONSE. THE REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH JUST INCREASE CLOUDS AS STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY TO BE BOOSTED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DUE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE H5 LOW KICKS OUT AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A DEEP LOW
RACES TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSSES IT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRACK OF THE LOW TAKES IT ACROSS OHIO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PCPN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER THE SFC LOW PASSES BY. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA
AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY INTO SE CANADA. HAVE
BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH LATE WED INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING
COLD BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO DIGGING S/W
WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SOUTH THRU OHIO VALLEY SAT AFTN/EVENING. HAVE MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THIS STRONG FRONT AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMP WISE...IN CAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SOME MODERATION
SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TWO DIFFERENT STRATUS DECKS AFFECTING TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
FIRST AOA 1KFT WILL EXIT CENTRAL OHIO TAFS AND SKIRT KILN BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND REMAINING E OF THESE SITES. SECOND IS AOA 3KFT
AND BREAKING UP OVER THE KDAY AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AND ERODE.
CI WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AND SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEAST AND SOME FAIR WX CU COULD DEVELOP FROM 2-3KFT TODAY BUT
SHOULD NOT EVOLVE BEYOND FEW-SCT AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING
AND THE CI WILL HAMPER LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING TODAY.
CI SHIELD SHOULD SEE THE BACK EDGE CROSS THE REGION AROUND 3Z
TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES IN ITS WAKE COULD PERMIT SOME LOW STRATUS
AND FOG TO AFFECT TAF SITES BEFORE DAYBREAK. KCVG WILL SEE SC DECK
AROUND 2KFT ENTER THE AREA AROUND 12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE CONDENSES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
618 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX COULD SPREAD
NORTH OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TAPS MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL TURN WINDY AND WET WITH A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS OVER TEXAS
TONIGHT...THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE /1026 MB/ EXTENDED FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...EAST TO THE SWRN CORNER OF QUEBEC PROVINCE EARLY TODAY.
A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A SHALLOW
WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN...WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE LATE FEB NORMALS.
ASIDE FROM SOME AREAS OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU...A FEW BRIEF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS TODAY...IT WILL STAY DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE DEEPENS STEADILY VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE WELL
INLAND OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND LAURELS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW/FZDZ
IN THE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/PL AND --SN
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING SSERLY FLOW IN THE 2-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL TRANSPORT A
WEDGE OF MILDER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR INTO THE REGION AT
THAT LEVEL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS 18Z TUE - 00Z WED...AS HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
SLIGHT COOLING OF THE NEAR SFC LAYER WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE
29-33F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND NRN/WRN ALLEGHENIES TUESDAY NIGHT...CREATING THE THREAT FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT GLAZING FROM --FZRA OR FZDZ.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MIDWEEK STORM IS STILL PROGGED BY ALL 22/00Z-06Z OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FCST SYSTEMS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER TEXAS AND
TRACK NE - ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING THE 12Z TUES-12Z THU TIMEFRAME.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD CLUSTERING OF THE FCST LOW POSITION OVER NWRN
PENN BY ABOUT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AND HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS (3-4 SIGMA) STRONG CORE OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS /AND
HIGH PWAT AIR/ EXTENDING UP THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
ERN PENN.
THERE IS STRONG GEFS...SREF AND EC CONSENSUS FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD COVERING 12Z WED -
12Z THU...WITH VERY LOW PROBS FOR 2 INCHES (MORE LIKE AROUND 1.5
INCHES FOR MAX AMOUNTS IN MANY PLACES AS SUGGESTED SIMPLY BY THE ).
THE SFC LOW WILL STILL BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN NYS
AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION THU MORNING...AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY DECENT DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE
PRECIP IS OVER. WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE
12Z CYCLE. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON
WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE
COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TOUGH CALL ON VSBY FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH KMDT
AND KLNS. THV REMAINS AT MVFR VSBYS...THOUGH THE REST OF THE
REGION CONTINUES TO DRY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SO EXPECTING
MAINLY VFR CONDS...HOWEVER HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP IN BETWEEN
10Z TO 13Z.
THE OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS FORMING AT
KBFD...THE RESULT OF A RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW AND A
COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT POINT
TOWARD ARND A 50 PCT POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 06Z-13Z.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 18Z ON MONDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN
IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS
A LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP KJST. LGT RAIN LIKELY SOUTHEAST PA.
WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY. BECOMING WINDY LATE.
THU...WINDY. PM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
955 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES AFFECTING FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROW
OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT FORECAST CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN NUDGING UP TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH A DEGREE BASED ON CURRENT OBS...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. DEW
POINTS ARE COMING DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT ONLY MID AND
HIGH CIGS AT CKV AND BNA, LOWER CIGS AT CSV WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST TO
OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
PLATEAU AND KEEPING CIGS IFR OR BELOW AT CSV THRU THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.........................01/BOYD
SHORT/LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
459 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY HAS FINALLY
TRICKLED OUT OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS LEAVING CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE AREN`T
FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARMTH TONIGHT BUT WE ARE STILL RUNNING A
SOLID 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE ARE A FEW WILD CARDS IN TODAY`S FORECAST...STARTING WITH POPS
TODAY. WHILE WE ARE IN A NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MOST
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH COULD
BRING SOME SMALL POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING MORE THAN THAT. IN FACT...THE
HRRR IS NOW SUGGESTING WHAT THE EURO HAS BEEN HINTING AT THE LAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS AND THAT`S CONSIDERABLY MORE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
IS GIVING THEM SHOWERS AND A FEW TS THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR...SO WILL FOLLOW MORE OF
THIS THINKING FOR TODAY`S POP FORECAST -- MINUS THE THUNDER --
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS WE MOVE TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS
MEANS A DRY PERIOD PRIOR TO NOON...BUT WE QUICKLY HAVE TO START
FOCUSING UPSTREAM AGAIN AND THE BIG SYSTEM OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY INTENSE SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING OVER EAST TEXAS AND BY MID TO LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MIDDLE TN SHOULD BEGIN SEEING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES NEWD AND TRACKS OVER OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONE WILL
PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE US FROM ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE. WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER WORDING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE MID-STATE.
AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW PULLS OUT
OF THE REGION AND UP THE EAST COAST...IT CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT. THE
FORECAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 975-980MB.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST TO ME THAT THE WRAP AROUND CAA WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG...AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS CHANGEOVER AS WELL. IF THERE`S ANY GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF
THIS...THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO
ATTM I`M NOT EXPECTING WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS OR ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MID-STATE. HOWEVER...ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
BE MADE FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS LINGERING SNOW WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAIN REARS ITS HEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE JUST RAIN ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. DEW
POINTS ARE COMING DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT ONLY MID AND
HIGH CIGS AT CKV AND BNA, LOWER CIGS AT CSV WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST TO
OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
PLATEAU AND KEEPING CIGS IFR OR BELOW AT CSV THRU THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................UNGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
247 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF I-4 WEDNESDAY...
...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF I-4 WEDNESDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED SIGNS OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE FIRST IMPULSE
THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
NOW EXITED THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
POTENT LITTLE SPIN WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WORKING OFF THE
COAST WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED INDIRECTLY WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE THE EVOLUTION A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND
SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY...SO STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH ITS
PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION. DETAILS ON THAT EVENT CAN BE FOUND IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FOR THE MOMENT
IN CONTROL AND LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...PROVIDING
LIGHT WINDS. A SUBTLE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE CAN BE ANALYZED TO OUR
SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA KEYS. SLOW
ADVANCE NORTHWARD OF AN ENHANCED CLOUD FIELD DOWN OVER THIS
REGION SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GENERAL WAA/UPGLIDE REGION OVER THIS BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE NOW LEAVING THE TEXAS COAST
CONTINUES TO APPROACHES LATE TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THIS
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND BEGIN LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF NORTHWARD. MODEST BUT DEEP
LAYER UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300-315K SURFACES OVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
SHOWN BY THE GFS/NAM/RAP TO OVERSPREAD SUNCOAST ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LIFT AND MOISTENING IS
RATHER DEFINED BY EARLY EVENING FROM FORT MYERS TO BRADENTON AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS...SO THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MORE LIKE
SPRINKLES) AFTER 21Z AS WELL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER COVERAGE...AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS WEAK AND A
BIT OUT OF PHASE (ARRIVING LATER). HOWEVER...LIKELY TO SEE A FEW
ECHOES START SHOWING ON RADAR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...AND DO
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROP ON THOSE WINDSHIELDS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE...UNTIL THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S MOST SPOTS WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S SHOWING UP. WE HIT 80 HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN FOR
SEA-BREEZING OFF TAMPA BAY. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WITH A
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ALLOWS THIS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG OUR
ENTIRE COAST TO PUSH ONSHORE...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORE/BEACHES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME...AND NEVER
REALLY PROVIDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG OR DEFINED SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH AND BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO COME A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. THIS
OVERALL RISE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GET
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...BUT
OTHERWISE...MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MOST
EFFICIENT UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND BE MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA BY DAWN. THEREFORE...LIKELY
WILL STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (NOT AMOUNTING TO
MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION)...BUT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
DRY AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. WELL OFF TO OUR WEST THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REALLY
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS RAMPING UP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY EVENING. THE ORGANIZING OF THIS LOW WILL HELP
TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK FROM THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BECOME A CONCERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST US IN HAVING NICER WEATHER TUESDAY...AS
THE HEIGHT RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NOT MUCH
SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF SHOULD GIVE US A WARM/HUMID DAY.
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDS COVER WE GET...THE ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
AT THE BEACHES AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER...THE THERE MAY ENOUGH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS TO POP
OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS. NOT A VERY COMMON OCCURRENCE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER
19-20Z.
WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SEA FOG BECOMES A REALITY
THAN IT WOULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUED FOR SHORELINE COMMUNITIES
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES ONSHORE. WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT FORECAST
TRENDS RELATED TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING FORWARD IN TIME
AS SEA FOG OFTEN HAS A LARGE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE REGIONS
COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL MARITIME ACTIVITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX WITH A SURFACE LOW IN NORTH LA WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THU. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INITIALLY NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
CROSSING FL WED AND WED EVENING.
THROUGH LATE WED:
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHEN A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
FORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT...
ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. THESE BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS TUE NIGHT THEN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL WED. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS TUE NIGHT INCREASES ON WED TO A SLIGHT RISK FROM TAMPA
BAY NORTH...WITH A MARGINAL SOUTH OF THERE. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS
THE INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF SEA FOG ON THE GULF
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SOME OF THIS FOG
COULD ADVECT ONSHORE WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES.
EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH MON:
THE SAINT LAWRENCE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE
ATLANTIC AS RIDGING OVER THE FAR WEST MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO
PLAINS STATES SUN...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
EASTERN STATES. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST TO THE GULF REGION
AS IT FLATTENS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING OFFSHORE. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RE-CENTERS IT/S
SELF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT...THEN TREKS EASTWARD SUN-MON.
A DRY STABLE AND COOL AIR MASS DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD
WITH BASES ABOVE 4FKT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM KSRQ
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF MIST WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH KLAL AND
KPGD HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AFTER 06Z.
ANY EARLY MORNING VIS RESTRICTIONS LIFT BY 14-15Z...FOLLOWED BY
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND
STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE
FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AREAS OF SEA FOG BY LATER TUESDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE EAST TONIGHT. DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
MAINLY INLAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL INCREASE
NEAR THE SHORE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
THREAT OF SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 76 67 76 / 20 20 20 60
FMY 65 79 66 81 / 20 20 10 50
GIF 63 80 65 81 / 20 40 10 60
SRQ 64 74 66 77 / 20 10 20 60
BKV 62 79 65 78 / 30 20 20 60
SPG 65 75 67 76 / 20 10 20 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1250 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.AVIATION UPDATE...SPOKE WITH TOWER AT KPGD AND 1/2SM OBSERVATION IS
NOT CORRECT. FIRE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRPORT IS NOT
IMPACTING AIRPORT OPERATIONS. VISIBILITY REPORTED HAS TO DO WITH THE
SENSOR BEING WORK ON. VFR 18Z TAF FOR KPGD IS VALID. VFR CONDITION
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD LATER
TODAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT OTHERWISE
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH KLAL AND KPGD HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY EARLY MORNING VIS RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNS OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE FIRST IMPULSE THAT WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EXITING
THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. POTENT LITTLE
SPIN WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WORKING OFF THE COAST WITH A
BROADER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY
WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED INDIRECTLY WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE THE EVOLUTION A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM
WILL NOT ARRIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY...SO STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH ITS
PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FOR THE MOMENT
IN CONTROL AND LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...PROVIDING
LIGHT WINDS. A SUBTLE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE CAN BE ANALYZED TO OUR
SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA KEYS. LOW ENHANCED
CLOUDS DOWN OVER THIS REGION SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GENERAL WAA/UPGLIDE REGION OVER THIS BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE
IN AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE NOW LEAVING THE TEXAS COAST
CONTINUES TO APPROACHES LATE TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THIS
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED AND BEGIN LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DOWN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST GULF NORTHWARD. MODEST BUT DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE ALONG
THE 300-315K SURFACES OVER THIS BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE
GFS/NAM/RAP TO OVERSPREAD SUNCOAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIFT AND MOISTENING IS RATHER DEFINED
BY EARLY EVENING FROM FORT MYERS TO BRADENTON AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS...SO THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE LIFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MORE LIKE
SPRINKLES) AFTER 21Z AS WELL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER COVERAGE...AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS A BIT OUT OF
PHASE (LATE ARRIVING). HOWEVER...LIKELY TO SEE A FEW ECHOES START
SHOWING ON RADAR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...AND DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROP ON THOSE WINDSHIELDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE...UNTIL THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS GETTING UP WELL IN THE 70S MOST SPOTS WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WITH A
WEAK GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ALLOWS A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO
PUSH ONSHORE...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE SHORE/BEACHES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME...AND NEVER
REALLY PROVIDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG OR DEFINED SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH AND BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO COME A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. THIS
OVERALL RISE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GET
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...BUT
OTHERWISE...MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MOST
EFFICIENT UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND BE MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (NOT
AMOUNTING TO MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION)...BUT OVERALL THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. WELL OFF TO OUR WEST THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REALLY
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS RAMPING UP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY EVENING. THE ORGANIZING OF THIS LOW WILL HELP
TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK FROM THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BECOME A CONCERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST US IN HAVING NICER WEATHER TUESDAY...AS
THE HEIGHT RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NOT MUCH
SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF SHOULD GIVE US A WARM/HUMID DAY.
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDS COVER WE GET...THE ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
AT THE BEACHES AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER...THE THERE MAY ENOUGH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS TO POP
OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS. NOT A VERY COMMON OCCURRENCE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 19-20Z.
WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SEA FOG BECOMES A REALITY
THAN IT WOULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUED FOR SHORELINE COMMUNITIES
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES ONSHORE. WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT FORECAST
TRENDS RELATED TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING FORWARD IN TIME
AS SEA FOG OFTEN HAS A LARGE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE REGIONS
COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL MARITIME ACTIVITIES.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. A SECOND
STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE
FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AREAS OF SEA FOG BY LATER TUESDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 64 78 66 / 10 10 30 20
FMY 81 64 81 66 / 10 20 40 20
GIF 80 63 81 65 / 10 20 50 20
SRQ 76 63 77 66 / 10 20 30 20
BKV 79 59 80 65 / 10 20 40 20
SPG 77 64 77 66 / 0 10 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1158 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNS OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE FIRST IMPULSE THAT WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EXITING
THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. POTENT LITTLE
SPIN WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WORKING OFF THE COAST WITH A
BROADER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY
WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED INDIRECTLY WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE THE EVOLUTION A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM
WILL NOT ARRIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY...SO STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH ITS
PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FOR THE MOMENT
IN CONTROL AND LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...PROVIDING
LIGHT WINDS. A SUBTLE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE CAN BE ANALYZED TO OUR
SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA KEYS. LOW ENHANCED
CLOUDS DOWN OVER THIS REGION SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GENERAL WAA/UPGLIDE REGION OVER THIS BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE
IN AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE NOW LEAVING THE TEXAS COAST
CONTINUES TO APPROACHES LATE TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THIS
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED AND BEGIN LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DOWN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST GULF NORTHWARD. MODEST BUT DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE ALONG
THE 300-315K SURFACES OVER THIS BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE
GFS/NAM/RAP TO OVERSPREAD SUNCOAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LIFT AND MOISTENING IS RATHER DEFINED
BY EARLY EVENING FROM FORT MYERS TO BRADENTON AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS...SO THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE LIFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MORE LIKE
SPRINKLES) AFTER 21Z AS WELL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER COVERAGE...AS THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS A BIT OUT OF
PHASE (LATE ARRIVING). HOWEVER...LIKELY TO SEE A FEW ECHOES START
SHOWING ON RADAR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...AND DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROP ON THOSE WINDSHIELDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE...UNTIL THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS GETTING UP WELL IN THE 70S MOST SPOTS WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER
80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WITH A
WEAK GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ALLOWS A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO
PUSH ONSHORE...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE SHORE/BEACHES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME...AND NEVER
REALLY PROVIDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG OR DEFINED SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH AND BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO COME A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. THIS
OVERALL RISE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GET
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...BUT
OTHERWISE...MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MOST
EFFICIENT UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND BE MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE...MAY STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (NOT
AMOUNTING TO MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION)...BUT OVERALL THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. WELL OFF TO OUR WEST THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REALLY
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS RAMPING UP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY EVENING. THE ORGANIZING OF THIS LOW WILL HELP
TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK FROM THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BEGIN TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BECOME A CONCERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST US IN HAVING NICER WEATHER TUESDAY...AS
THE HEIGHT RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NOT MUCH
SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF SHOULD GIVE US A WARM/HUMID DAY.
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUDS COVER WE GET...THE ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
AT THE BEACHES AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER...THE THERE MAY ENOUGH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS TO POP
OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS. NOT A VERY COMMON OCCURRENCE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 19-20Z.
WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SEA FOG BECOMES A REALITY
THAN IT WOULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUED FOR SHORELINE COMMUNITIES
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADVECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES ONSHORE. WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT FORECAST
TRENDS RELATED TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING FORWARD IN TIME
AS SEA FOG OFTEN HAS A LARGE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE REGIONS
COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL MARITIME ACTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD LATER
TODAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT
OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH KLAL AND
KPGD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY EARLY MORNING VIS
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. A SECOND
STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE
FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AREAS OF SEA FOG BY LATER TUESDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 64 78 66 / 10 10 30 20
FMY 81 64 81 66 / 10 20 40 20
GIF 80 63 81 65 / 10 20 50 20
SRQ 76 63 77 66 / 10 20 30 20
BKV 79 59 80 65 / 10 20 40 20
SPG 77 64 77 66 / 0 10 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
554 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WRN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI
SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM NE MN INTO NW WI WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING
INTO SRN MANITOBA.
TONIGHT...AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SLIDES TO THE EAST...MAINLY
JUST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS OF MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLOW.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK TO
MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING...A HALF INCH OR
LESS. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY SOUTHWESTER THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME A 500MB SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA INTO QUEBEC. THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING OVER
THE WEST HALF AND THEN OVER THE EAST HALF OVERNIGHT. THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERALL WITH MODELS ONLY PAINTING OUT AROUND 0.06 INCHES OF LIQUID
QPF ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1 WOULD GIVE
MOST PLACES A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH TO AT MOST AN INCH. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH ALONG
WITH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT AROUND -10C. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO CREATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTH WINDS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH IT. COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS. THE EAST HALF...THE LES
POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF MOISTURE
WRAPS BACK INTO THE EAST THEN CHANCE MAY BE INCREASED OVER THAT
AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OVER
MAINLY FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH IS LESS FAVORED FOR
MODERATE OR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT ON NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN
AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS
ARE PROGGED TO BECOME WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SLIDE FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY FRIDAY EVENING TO WESTERN
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING
TIME PERIOD. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE -20C TO -25C RANGE. THIS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT
LOCATIONS FOR THE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS
MODELS TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUES TO LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH CAA WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AGAIN...AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE MAY CAUSE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.P. BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS HAVE
NOT HAD A GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN OR FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. THERE WILL BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 25KT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL
A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NW GALES TO 40
KNOTS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WRN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI
SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM NE MN INTO NW WI WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING
INTO SRN MANITOBA.
TONIGHT...AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SLIDES TO THE EAST...MAINLY
JUST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS OF MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS AND ONLY WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLOW.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV...LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST HALF IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK TO
MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING...A HALF INCH OR
LESS. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY SOUTHWESTER THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME A 500MB SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA INTO QUEBEC. THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING OVER
THE WEST HALF AND THEN OVER THE EAST HALF OVERNIGHT. THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERALL WITH MODELS ONLY PAINTING OUT AROUND 0.06 INCHES OF LIQUID
QPF ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1 WOULD GIVE
MOST PLACES A WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH TO AT MOST AN INCH. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH ALONG
WITH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH AND WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT AROUND -10C. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO CREATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTH WINDS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH IT. COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST HALF WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES...AGAIN FOR NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS. THE EAST HALF...THE LES
POTENTIAL DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF MOISTURE
WRAPS BACK INTO THE EAST THEN CHANCE MAY BE INCREASED OVER THAT
AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OVER
MAINLY FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH IS LESS FAVORED FOR
MODERATE OR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT ON NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN
AND 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS
ARE PROGGED TO BECOME WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SLIDE FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY FRIDAY EVENING TO WESTERN
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ONCE AGAIN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT INCREASED FORCING WILL ALLOW SYSTEM SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING
TIME PERIOD. ALOFT 500MB TROUGHING WILL BE INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE -20C TO -25C RANGE. THIS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
SNOW BELTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO THE EXACT
LOCATIONS FOR THE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS
MODELS TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION. MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUES TO LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH CAA WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40 MPH
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AGAIN...AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE MAY CAUSE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.P. BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS HAVE
NOT HAD A GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN OR FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ABOVE 2K FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR CIGS BLO 2K FT TONIGHT WILL BE AT WHERE AN UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT PREVAILS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 25KT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD REACH GALES TO 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL
A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NW GALES TO 40
KNOTS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
311 PM MST MON FEB 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GONE
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT, AS DEPICTED WITH HRRR ANALYSIS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY KEEPING A COOL BUT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH
THE WESTERN US BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH
OF HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS A
COUPLE OF IMPLICATIONS LOCALLY. FIRST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PAC NW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SECONDLY, REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN US COURTESY THE HUDSON BAY LOW. WITH
EACH SURGE, THE COLDEST AIR TRIES TO EDGE WEST INTO MONTANA, BUT
THE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR WEST IT GETS. FOR NOW, THINKING
THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA COULD BRIEFLY GET GLANCED BY
SOME COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF LOW AND ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW, LEANING TOWARDS AN ECMWF/GEFS
SOLUTION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME. THIS SOLUTION LEADS TO AN INCREASE
IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON,
INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF/GEFS. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE TRICKY PART OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE PRECIP TYPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT
ON THIS POINT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAIN VS SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS LOWER AT THIS TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. BEYOND
THE WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY CONTINUE AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. MARTIN
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF KGTF AND KLWT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS KGTF
AROUND 20Z AND KLWT AROUND 22Z MONDAY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE MONTANA PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTING KGTF OR KLWT IS VERY LOW.
VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KHLN AND KBZN. JASZKA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 25 46 24 45 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 23 44 21 43 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 23 43 23 44 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 15 37 13 38 / 10 0 0 0
WEY 7 29 10 30 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 16 36 17 40 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 24 46 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 22 43 21 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1118 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE
TO STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS IN FOG. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 16Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
ADDED THREE COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO
THOSE COUNTIES AND REPORTS OF DENSE FOG SPREADING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE COUNTIES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WERE
HARLAN...FRANKLIN...WEBSTER.
A STRATUS DECK OVER POLK COUNTY HAS BEEN KEEPING THE FOG AWAY IN
THAT AREA AND THE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK OUT OF
OUR NORTHEAST IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS...LITTLE
WIND...AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS. ENDED UP ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADV
THROUGH 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HW 6.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...AND NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION LYING ACROSS FAR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA...INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IS LIGHT/VARIABLE. WITH THE
OVERALL LACK OF WINDS AND COOLING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
GOING IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS DRY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE S/SERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
E/NE A TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE REGION. SPEEDS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS TODAY...THOUGH THE RAP RH FIELDS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION TOO BAD. IT SHOWS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED LONGER THAN OTHER AREAS. EVEN THE
AREAS NOT IMPACTED MUCH BY THE STRATUS SHOULD SEE INCREASING SKY
COVER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES STILL LOOK TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER
TO...THEN AFTER 06Z. MODEL QPF FIELDS VARY WITH THE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO BECAUSE OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS
REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS AS LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
OVERVIEW...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF HWY 6...OR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF HWY 281 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. A COLD FRONT WILL COOL US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVEN BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY...LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WE START
TO REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...WE HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA. ALL OF THE DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE NORTHERN WAVE PASSES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS TUESDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ALSO WINDIER THANKS TO
THIS PASSING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY THING TO WATCH FOR WILL
BE ANOTHER CANADIAN CLIPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT ORIGINALLY
WAS SUPPOSED TO PASS EAST OF US...BUT THAT NOW SEEMS TO BE
TRACKING FURTHER WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT
OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG ITS TRACK. RIGHT NOW...THE TRACK FAVORS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BEING ADDED TO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE SHIFT WEST IN THE 06Z GFS HOLDS. IF
THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WEST...THEN OUR HIGHS ARE TOO WARM
ON THURSDAY AND WE MIGHT END UP STUCK IN THE 30S RATHER THAN THE
LOWER 40S CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE THURSDAY COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AND
WARMER AIR WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM IF IT EVEN COMES THROUGH HERE
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BRINGING THE CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS EXPECTED TOWARD MID DAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND WARM AIR BUILDING ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING WARMING. ALSO...H850 WINDS ARE FROM
THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF WV AND ITS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
USED PRIMARY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
REGION TUESDAY EVENING. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT THIS
POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG LLJ WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES ON WEDNESDAY PROGGED TO
RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...WILL CREATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS IN
FAVORED DOWNSLOPING REGIONS...AND MAY TEMPORARILY INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THE START...BUT WILL
CHANGE WITH TIME AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS SOMEWHAT...AND ATMOSPHERE
IS ABLE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCES.
MAY NOT HAVE GONE QUITE WARM ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS MENTIONED...RATHER GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ. LOOKING LIKE WE COULD HIT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...IF
NOT AREA WIDE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RAIN...WILL POSE A RISK FOR
TREES TO COME DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE
HWO...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
EXPECTING FALLING TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE
GUSTY WINDS IN CAA FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
GENERALLY ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY...WITH BULK OF
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MOUNTAIN ZONES WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE BETTER TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE KEPT THE SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR THURSDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
SHOWING AMPLE LIFT/RH INTO PART OF THE DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO VARIOUS SPOKES OF ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF WITH SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT. SOME COATINGS
ARE ENVISIONED OVER THE LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION CODED UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS THE WIND POTENTIAL. A STOUT 50 KT LLJ WILL ROTATE
THRU AND WITH A FAVORABLE CROSS FLOW AMID A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THINKING GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY FRIDAY BUT STILL LOOKING QUITE A
BIT OF STRATOCU AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DAY AND NIGHT. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
TAKING HOLD. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY. MONDAYS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 09Z TUESDAY...STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT COULD ENHANCED THE LOW STRATUS LAYER
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS AT 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FEET 12Z TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST 06Z TO 12Z ON THE
LIGHT NORTH DAMP FLOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND WARM AIR BUILDING ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING WARMING. ALSO...H850 WINDS ARE FROM
THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF WV AND ITS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
USED PRIMARY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STILL SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
REGION TUESDAY EVENING. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT THIS
POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG LLJ WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES ON WEDNESDAY PROGGED TO
RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...WILL CREATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS IN
FAVORED DOWNSLOPING REGIONS...AND MAY TEMPORARILY INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THE START...BUT WILL
CHANGE WITH TIME AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS SOMEWHAT...AND ATMOSPHERE
IS ABLE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCES.
MAY NOT HAVE GONE QUITE WARM ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS MENTIONED...RATHER GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND STRONG LLJ. LOOKING LIKE WE COULD HIT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...IF
NOT AREA WIDE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RAIN...WILL POSE A RISK FOR
TREES TO COME DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE
HWO...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH REINFORCING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
EXPECTING FALLING TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE
GUSTY WINDS IN CAA FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
GENERALLY ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY...WITH BULK OF
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MOUNTAIN ZONES WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE BETTER TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH STRONG WNW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURS EVENING...GRANTED IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN WELL
TO OUR NORTH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH H850
FLOW PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS WED THROUGH
LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER UPPER LOW
EQUATORWARD LATE SAT INTO SUN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER BRINGING
ANYTHING TO OUR DOORSTEP...SO WILL MORE OR LESS SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY. MONDAYS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 09Z TUESDAY...STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT COULD ENHANCED THE LOW STRATUS LAYER
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS AT 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FEET 12Z TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST 06Z TO 12Z ON THE
LIGHT NORTH DAMP FLOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1234 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS (MAINLY IN INDIANA) AND STRATUS (NORTHERN
OHIO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO) HAVE COMPLICATED THE CLOUD
FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS IN PARTICULAR HAS NOT
SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF DISSIPATION...AND IS ACTUALLY STARTING TO
SPREAD FURTHER INTO CENTRAL OHIO.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT RAP DATA...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA) THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS FORCED A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES THERE...WITH
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE APPEARING ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR COULD ACTUALLY
EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA...WHERE MAX TEMPS NEAR 50 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WEAK CAA OVER NRN OHIO
HAS PRODUCED SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...CENTRAL OHIO AND THE WHITEWATER VALLEY. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE
E DURING THE DAY. CI CLOUDS LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
YESTERDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WHERE TEMPERATURES GOT WARMER
THAN FORECAST. BUMPED UP PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS...BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN
WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO AROUND 50 IN NRN KY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INVERTED SFC TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER ERN KY INTO WEST
VA. THIS FUNNELS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE FA...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE W AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SE TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO UNDER THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE MID 30S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.
ON TUESDAY...H5 S/W WORKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO TX. AS THIS
OCCURS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN ERN TX IN RESPONSE. THE REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH JUST INCREASE CLOUDS AS STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY TO BE BOOSTED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DUE TO THE
WARM ADVECTION.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE H5 LOW KICKS OUT AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A DEEP LOW
RACES TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSSES IT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRACK OF THE LOW TAKES IT ACROSS OHIO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PCPN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN AFTER THE SFC LOW PASSES BY. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA
AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY INTO SE CANADA. HAVE
BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH LATE WED INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING
COLD BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO DIGGING S/W
WHICH LOOKS TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SOUTH THRU OHIO VALLEY SAT AFTN/EVENING. HAVE MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THIS STRONG FRONT AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMP WISE...IN CAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SOME MODERATION
SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATUS CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES HAVE BROKEN UP THIS MORNING...BUT
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CUMULUS / STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED.
THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE TAF SITES...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM EAST TO WEST...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR)
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR CINCINNATI...WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LONGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY COME BACK BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND WARM AIR BUILDING ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING WARMING. ALSO...H850 WINDS ARE FROM
THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WV AND ITS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FOR
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
USED PRIMARY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK WAVE
WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BECOME JAMMED UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES...AND A WINTRY MIX IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS RATHER LACKING WITH
THIS FIRST WAVE AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
REAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. I HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS...AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING
FLOW SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR 60 IN SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS.
OUR NEXT LARGE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE WAY OF FLOODING. OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT...TRACKING A STRONG
ANOMOUSLY LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 50 - 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO CONCERNING WILL BE
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
EASTERN FORECAST ZONES AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IN THE HWO. WITH SOILS NEARLY SATURATED IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO PRODUCE FLOODING...AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY
LOW. WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THERE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRECIP VALUES ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. FOR NOW GUIDANCE IS INDICATING TWO QPF MAXIMUMS...ONE
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE OTHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW. IN THESE AREAS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND WITH EFFICIENT RUNOFF DUE TO THE SATURATED
GROUND...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THAT JUST SAW AREAS OF FLOODING
YESTERDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH STRONG WNW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURS EVENING...GRANTED IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN WELL
TO OUR NORTH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH H850
FLOW PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS WED THROUGH
LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER UPPER LOW
EQUATORWARD LATE SAT INTO SUN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER BRINGING
ANYTHING TO OUR DOORSTEP...SO WILL MORE OR LESS SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY. MONDAYS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 09Z TUESDAY...STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT COULD ENHANCED THE LOW STRATUS LAYER
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS AT 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FEET 12Z TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST 06Z TO 12Z ON THE
LIGHT NORTH DAMP FLOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK/SL
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1213 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GOING TO RUN WITH CURRENT FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS AS IT LOOKS
GOOD FOR THE COMPLEX LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING OBFUSCATED BY SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE SHOWS PATCHY/SPORADIC
LOW STRATUS/FOG.
THE DRIER AIR/LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS TRYING TO MAKE IN-ROADS
SOUTH. BOTH PKB AND UNI CLEARED OUT...BUT THEN FOG TRIED TO
FORM...BEFORE DRIER AIR FOUGHT BACK. STRONG DEW POINT GRADIENT
JUST S OF CKB TO N OF HTS.
RAP 925 MB FORECAST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID
OHIO VALLEY...SO THINKING THE DRIER AIR WILL WIN - IN THESE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. STRATUS/FOG MAY FIGHT HARDER FURTHER S TOWARD
HTS IN THE DAMPER GROUND. SAME CONFLICT FOR CLARKSBURG-GRAFTON
AREA...BUT THINKING DRY AIR HAS A BETTER BET OVER THE FOG/STRATUS
IN THAT VICINITY.
HOWEVER...FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF WEST VIRGINIA...PLAYING
STRATUS AND FOG HARDER INCLUDING CRW TO EKN TO BKW. WILL
MENTION SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT HIGHER
IN THESE INTERIOR COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY CRW ON S INTO COAL FIELDS.
AT 02Z THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE ON SUNDAY
RUNNING FROM CKB TO HTS NEAR 00Z.
HELD ONTO LIKELY POPS ALONG THAT BAND FOR A FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR TRYING TO NOSE SOUTH FROM THE MID OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE ATHENS TO PARKERSBURG VICINITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK WAVE
WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BECOME JAMMED UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES...AND A WINTRY MIX IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS RATHER LACKING WITH
THIS FIRST WAVE AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
REAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. I HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS...AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING
FLOW SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR 60 IN SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS.
OUR NEXT LARGE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE WAY OF FLOODING. OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT...TRACKING A STRONG
ANOMOUSLY LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 50 - 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO CONCERNING WILL BE
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
EASTERN FORECAST ZONES AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IN THE HWO. WITH SOILS NEARLY SATURATED IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO PRODUCE FLOODING...AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY
LOW. WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THERE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRECIP VALUES ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. FOR NOW GUIDANCE IS INDICATING TWO QPF MAXIMUMS...ONE
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE OTHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW. IN THESE AREAS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND WITH EFFICIENT RUNOFF DUE TO THE SATURATED
GROUND...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THAT JUST SAW AREAS OF FLOODING
YESTERDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH STRONG WNW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURS EVENING...GRANTED IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN WELL
TO OUR NORTH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH H850
FLOW PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS WED THROUGH
LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER UPPER LOW
EQUATORWARD LATE SAT INTO SUN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER BRINGING
ANYTHING TO OUR DOORSTEP...SO WILL MORE OR LESS SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY. MONDAYS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 09Z TUESDAY...STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT COULD ENHANCED THE LOW STRATUS LAYER
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS AT 3 TO 4
THOUSAND FEET 12Z TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST 06Z TO 12Z ON THE
LIGHT NORTH DAMP FLOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/SL/DTC
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ/MPK/SL
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE FAIRLY
QUICK DETERIORATION OF FLYING CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHRA INTO N TX AND S OK
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN THE RN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
GENERAL...SPREADING AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS KCSM-KGOK-KSWO BY
MID-MORNING TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENS...NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKEWISE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AND CONFINED THEM TO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. APPEARS ANY RAINFALL WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST MUCAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 100 J/KG OR LESS...SO THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY BEFORE 6 PM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER 6 PM.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP RAPIDLY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DRY AIR. THUS...INCREASED HIGHS GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
22/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z ALTHOUGH VFR CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
EXPECTED TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z AND SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TERMINALS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVALENT AFTER 06Z ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS
WELL TOWARD AND AFTER 04-06Z. WILL NOT MENTION TSRA IN TERMINALS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SW/W TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IMPACTS SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WET DAY
MOST AREAS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW WORDING IN FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE...THAT WE
NORMALLY LIKE TO SEE LEADING INTO WINTER WEATHER EVENTS OVER OUR
REGION...THE ANOMALOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSE FOR
CONCERN. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING...LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND
FORMATION OF TROWAL LATE TUESDAY WILL LEAD US TO MENTION AT LEAST
A CHANCE FOR SNOW NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 IN OKLAHOMA. GREATER
IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE
TROWAL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND DRIER LOWER LEVEL AIR IS
TAPPED. MODEL TRENDS OF COOLER COLUMN AND LOWERING WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS CANNOT BE IGNORED. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR ALL SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH...SO
HAVE NOT MENTIONED SNOW POSSIBILITIES WEST. IF WE DO GET A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON NORTH/NORTHWEST SIDE OF INTENSE MID- LEVEL
LOW...PRIMARILY IMPACTS WILL BE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS/TREES/GRASS... PERHAPS TWO OR THREE INCHES. IF THERE ARE
HEAVY ENOUGH BANDS OF SNOW...BRIEF SLUSHY ROADWAYS AND REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE HAZARDS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN AREA OF CONCERN...AND THE FACT THAT
GROUND TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM...ANY SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES WILL NOT
LAST VERY LONG.
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER DAY
WITH INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS. NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT REGION NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 39 45 35 / 0 80 70 40
HOBART OK 60 38 46 33 / 10 80 70 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 42 47 37 / 10 90 90 40
GAGE OK 59 34 48 27 / 10 50 50 10
PONCA CITY OK 59 39 49 33 / 0 50 40 20
DURANT OK 61 44 47 38 / 20 90 90 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AND CONFINED THEM TO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. APPEARS ANY RAINFALL WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST MUCAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 100 J/KG OR LESS...SO THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY BEFORE 6 PM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER 6 PM.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP RAPIDLY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DRY AIR. THUS...INCREASED HIGHS GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
22/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z ALTHOUGH VFR CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
EXPECTED TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z AND SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TERMINALS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN
EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVALENT AFTER 06Z ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS
WELL TOWARD AND AFTER 04-06Z. WILL NOT MENTION TSRA IN TERMINALS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SW/W TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT IMPACTS SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WET DAY
MOST AREAS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW WORDING IN FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE...THAT WE
NORMALLY LIKE TO SEE LEADING INTO WINTER WEATHER EVENTS OVER OUR
REGION...THE ANOMALOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSE FOR
CONCERN. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING...LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND
FORMATION OF TROWAL LATE TUESDAY WILL LEAD US TO MENTION AT LEAST
A CHANCE FOR SNOW NEAR AND EAST OF I-44 IN OKLAHOMA. GREATER
IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE
TROWAL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND DRIER LOWER LEVEL AIR IS
TAPPED. MODEL TRENDS OF COOLER COLUMN AND LOWERING WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS CANNOT BE IGNORED. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR ALL SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH...SO
HAVE NOT MENTIONED SNOW POSSIBILITIES WEST. IF WE DO GET A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON NORTH/NORTHWEST SIDE OF INTENSE MID- LEVEL
LOW...PRIMARILY IMPACTS WILL BE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS/TREES/GRASS... PERHAPS TWO OR THREE INCHES. IF THERE ARE
HEAVY ENOUGH BANDS OF SNOW...BRIEF SLUSHY ROADWAYS AND REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE HAZARDS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING IN AREA OF CONCERN...AND THE FACT THAT
GROUND TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM...ANY SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES WILL NOT
LAST VERY LONG.
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER DAY
WITH INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS. NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT REGION NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 39 45 35 / 0 80 70 40
HOBART OK 60 38 46 33 / 10 80 70 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 42 47 37 / 10 90 90 40
GAGE OK 59 34 48 27 / 10 50 50 10
PONCA CITY OK 59 39 49 33 / 0 50 40 20
DURANT OK 61 44 47 38 / 20 90 90 70
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1238 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES AFFECTING FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROW
OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT FORECAST CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN NUDGING UP TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH A DEGREE BASED ON CURRENT OBS...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA
AND NORTH GEORGIA WILL WORK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING SPREADING LIGHT
RAIN NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE GENERALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL WORK UP ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT FOR NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE WITH IFR AT
CROSSVILLE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALL EYES ARE
ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FARTHER EAST...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL
IMPACTS FOR THE CWA WITH THE FIRST BEING INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO CRYSTAL
CITY LINE. THE REST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
THE SYSTEM IS SMALL BUT POTENT WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SPEEDS
AT 500 MB WITH 70 KNOT SPEEDS ROTATING INTO THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW
500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THESE VALUES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL
AND PERHAPS A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE LEADING TO
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 600-700 WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE
WORRISOME BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-50S WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LITTLE BOUYANCY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUIET WELL WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SURFACE
INHIBITION AROUND 50-100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM ANY
EMBEDDED ACTIVITY WITHIN A LINE SEGMENT OR ANY DISCRETE CELL. THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SERVE AS A METHOD TO ENHANCE THE
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SUPPORTING THE SEVERE CHANCES. WE
SHOULD SEE THIS LINE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AROUND 2Z
OR 8 PM THEN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE AND WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...NEAR WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. WHEREVER THIS OCCURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY BE IN A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR POSSIBLY FROM AS FAR NORTH
AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 90.
ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER. DESPITE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THESE TOTALS IN A 6 HOUR SPAN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 25-30
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THAT BEGINS AT
NOON TOMORROW AND GOES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS
LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS WILL
FINALLY RELAX BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE FORECAST WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL SITES
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND WE
WILL SEE WARMING CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 41 64 39 / 100 70 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 66 42 65 35 / 100 70 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 43 66 36 / 100 50 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 59 40 62 36 / 100 60 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 70 42 67 36 / 80 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 41 63 36 / 100 70 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 41 67 32 / 100 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 43 65 36 / 100 60 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 69 45 64 37 / 90 70 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 71 44 66 36 / 100 40 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 73 44 68 36 / 90 30 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND BAY OF GREEN BAY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AROUND
THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
FEATURES...AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND FAR NE WI WILL
HOVER OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST.
OTHER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL EXIST OVER FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE
EVENING...BEFORE THIS TOO EXITS EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS FROM EITHER FEATURE...PERHAPS JUST A DUSTING. THEN AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT...A RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM LEAVES ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. IF SKIES DO CLEAR FOR A PERIOD...TEMPS HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE MORNING AND COULD SEE THE PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND N-C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY THE START OF THE EVENING. MILD FEBRUARY
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND HOW SIGNIFICANT THE PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ONLY MINOR PCPN CHANCES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI WITH A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A GLANCING BLOW IN EAST CENTRAL WI FROM THE
LARGE OHIO VALLEY STORM ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IN VILAS COUNTY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CIPS ANALOGS
SHOWED A 70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW OVER VILAS
COUNTY...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT STALL IT OVER ILLINOIS AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RIDES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PREVENTS A BIG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION...AND ALSO PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOWSTORM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE PATTERN
HOLDS...THERE WOULD PLENTY OF DYNAMICS...WITH THE RRQ OF A STRONG
UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SUSPECT IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WE GET A DECENT HANDLE ON THE FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AS THE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS THIS EVENING
AS WELL...WHICH COULD LEAVE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID TO
LATE EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THINKING THAT SCT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. CLOUDS TO LOWER AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC