Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/21/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
917 AM PST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PEAKING WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY AREA TODAY WITH THE
TAIL END OF IT REACHING THE SLO COUNTY COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IT`S EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH LEFT
BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. SO AT MOST JUST SOME CLOUDS
EXPECTED UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO PRECIP. HIGHS MOST AREAS
TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SOME
BREEZY NORTH WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY
LEVELS AND WILL EVALUATE WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SAT...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS MAY BE STEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY N WINDS
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SAT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SAT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE PACIFIC TO THE SW
OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...CAUSING A DECENT RISE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO EXPECT ONLY LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO NLY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ADDITIONALLY ON SUN...WITH TEMPS PROBABLY
REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 80 DEGREES MARK IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
IN THE VLYS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL CONT TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION ON MON AS
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE PAC DRIFTS EWD TOWARD THE REGION. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY MON MORNING...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES NOT LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT...WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH TEMPS PROBABLY WELL INTO THE 80S IN SOME OF THE
WARMER LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AND VLY AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON TUE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME WEAK
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE WARM ON
TUE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. A TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN CA WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO EXPECT MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD COOLING. STILL...MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES ON
THU AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...19/1105Z...
AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.
OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
EVENING...THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT TURBULENCE/LLWS
AT KSBA.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...19/200 AM...
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS SEAS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SWELL SUBSIDES ON
SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND
A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS SEAS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. OTHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM
PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
857 AM PST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain with occasionally moderate snow over the mountains
today. Decreasing showers tonight. Gusty south winds today
especially northern Sacramento valley and southern Cascades. Dry
through the weekend with the next chance of precipitation for
interior NorCal at the end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Did a quick update to the winds this morning to increase the
forecast speeds between now and early afternoon. Redding & Red
Bluff Airports have been reporting sustained winds 20-30 mph in
the past couple of hours with gusts 35 to 40 mph. GFSLamp Model
guidance supports these wind speeds in the Northern Sacramento
Valley through about 1 or 2 pm this afternoon. The current Wind
Advisory is valid through 4 pm today...will watch observations
this afternoon to determine if we need to cancel it a couple hours
earlier. As for rain/snow...forecast still looks on track in terms
of timing and location. The HRRR shows that much of the
precipitation will be along the I-80 corridor and northward today.
Have added the possibility of thunderstorms to the Northern
Sacramento Valley. The HRRR is suggesting that the typical
convergence line could set up again sometime after 10 am through
the afternoon...primarily across Shasta County. If it develops,
this could impact the I-5 corridor near the vicinity of Redding &
Red Bluff and move towards the Burney area. JBB
.Previous Discussion...A weak disturbance moving through far
norcal at this time is bringing some light precipitation just
north of the CWA and may see a little light rain dipping southward
into the forecast area during the early morning hours. A weak
frontal band now just off the coast will be moving inland later
this morning. As it moves inland, surface gradients will increase
bringing increasing winds along with light to occasionally
moderate precipitation. Current surface gradient between Medford
and Sacramento about 9 mb and increasing. As gradients
increase...should see wind advisory windspeeds in the northern
Sacramento valley sometime after about 14z and a few hours after
in the central valley. Have updated the wind advisory currently
out to account for lighter winds this morning. Light precipitation
will be moving into the southern Cascades by about 18z this
morning with the main frontal band crossing the southern Cascades
and northern Sierra during the afternoon. Will keep current winter
weather advisory now in place with no change in timing although
snowfall amounts over the northern Sierra may be borderline for
advisory. Any snow that does fall will definitely impact the
passes due to cold air in place keeping snow levels generally
below 5500 feet. Cold air behind the front will also keep daytime
highs today a little below normal.
Steady rain or snow will transition to showers this evening as the
front shifts eastward with an end to all precipitation expected by
morning as upper ridging begins to develop. At this time...the
weekend looks dry with temperatures warming under the west coast
ridge. Dry conditions and warm temperatures continue under west
coast ridging going into next week with daytime highs on Monday
expected to be 10 or more degrees above normal.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
Strong upper ridging over Interior NorCal Tuesday shifts into the
Great Basin as short wave trough lifts across northern portions
of California Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given strength of
ridge and relative weakness of modeled trough, expect any
associated precipitation will remain north/northwest of the
forecast area. Upper ridging then rebuilds back over NorCal
Thursday. Differences in strength of next short wave trough that
is forecast to move through later Friday into Saturday leads to
decreased confidence in forecast during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Westerly flow aloft as next Pacific frontal system moves through
today. For valley locations...mainly VFR next 24 hours except
local MVFR/IFR possible in showers. For the mountains...widespread
MVFR with areas of IFR/LIFR possible in snow showers through 14z
Sat. Areas of southerly winds 20-30 kts with gusts around 35 kts
this morning through 22-0z today especially near KRDD and KRBL.
Southwesterly winds gusts up to 45 kts possible over higher
terrain.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central
Sacramento Valley.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE NORTH BAY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A
RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST THURSDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DECREASED FROM MID-AFTERNOON ONWARD AND THEN PRETTY MUCH
ENDED AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE NORTH BAY. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS NOT FORECAST TO BEGIN SPREADING
INTO THE NORTH BAY UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING FRIDAY. RAIN IS THEN
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS SYSTEM`S UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND DISSIPATING AS IT PRESSES SOUTH
THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA LATE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
BOTH INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH OF SAN MATEO AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
0.10-0.50" IN THE NORTH BAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP ONLY 0.15" OR LESS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL AREAS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTH MAY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO NEARLY
ALL AREAS BY LATE EVENING.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DAYTIME
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY. BALMY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BOTH SHOW THAT SYSTEM
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT COMES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST
RIDGE...AND THEN WASHING OUT COMPLETELY PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN
PUSHING THAT SYSTEM INLAND WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO GENERATE
LIGHT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LATE NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:49 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENTLY THE IR
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS DYNAMIC TONIGHT SO THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MIXING TO PREVENT FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC030 AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 2000Z
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 1400Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 2200Z FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:36 PM PST THURSDAY...A STEEP...MODERATELY SIZED
WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY EVENING...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
859 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE NORTH BAY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A
RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST THURSDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DECREASED FROM MID-AFTERNOON ONWARD AND THEN PRETTY MUCH
ENDED AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE NORTH BAY. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS NOT FORECAST TO BEGIN SPREADING
INTO THE NORTH BAY UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING FRIDAY. RAIN IS THEN
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS SYSTEM`S UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND DISSIPATING AS IT PRESSES SOUTH
THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA LATE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
BOTH INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH OF SAN MATEO AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
0.10-0.50" IN THE NORTH BAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP ONLY 0.15" OR LESS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL AREAS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTH MAY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO NEARLY
ALL AREAS BY LATE EVENING.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DAYTIME
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY. BALMY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BOTH SHOW THAT SYSTEM
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT COMES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST
RIDGE...AND THEN WASHING OUT COMPLETELY PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN
PUSHING THAT SYSTEM INLAND WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO GENERATE
LIGHT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LATE NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:50 PM PST THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF COOL AIR CUMULUS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTIVE PROCESSES LOOSE THEIR ENERGY. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MIXING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WE SHOULD NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC030 AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 2000Z
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:34 PM PST THURSDAY...A STEEP...MODERATELY SIZED
WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY EVENING...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1030 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY...WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
10Z...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 50 KTS MOST LOCATIONS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS A LITTLE EARLY WITH NEW
FORECAST...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS
THE REGION. HRRR SUGGESTS SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR AND EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRES WILL LIKELY BE LAST TO DIMINISH...WITH STILL A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN THE 30-50 KT RANGE...THOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME/DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED. OVER THE
PLAINS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY BY THIS
MORNING...REPLACED BY DEEPENING LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF I25 WILL
SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY...INCREASING IN SPEED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KS BORDER. FAR EASTERN PLAINS
MAY SEE MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CREEPING UPWARD TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SKATE BY WITHOUT A FIRE HIGHLIGHT NEEDED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER MOST AREAS THAN YESTERDAY`S EXTREME VALUES...THOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL RUN SOME 10-20F WARMER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MIN TEMPS RATHER MILD ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S/30S MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
...WARM START TO THE WEEKEND...
...BRIEF RETURN TO WINTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG STRING OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE PLUS TWO TO FOUR RANGE...AND WITH WRLY WINDS...SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN GET CLOSE TO OR EXCEED THE 70 DEGREE MARK AT KPUB AND OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING AND
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE DVD BY LATE SAT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT...WHEN THE ERN MTS
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHSN. LATEST NAM IS DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SERN CO. SHOULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE
AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MTN ZONES...SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO
THE GFS AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING TRRN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL COME MON AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON NIGHT AS A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS PROGS H7 TEMPS AS LOW AS MINUS 12 DEGREES C BY TUE MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT. NOT TERRIBLY COLD BY NORMAL
FEB STANDARDS...BUT COMING ON THE HEELS OF WHAT LIKELY WILL BE THE
WARMEST OR ONE OF THE WARMEST FEBRUARYS ON RECORD...IT WILL BE A
TASTE OF TRUE WINTER CONDITIONS. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR QPF THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IN ETHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD 24
HOUR PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FOR OUR AREA. WITH THE FAVORABLE GFS...COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE FOR THE ERN MTS AND
PLAINS BY TUE MORNING. HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TUE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.
UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS FROM WED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...RETURNING US TO DRY WX WITH TEMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SHSN FOR THE DVD GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS WEST OF KCOS AND KPUB AT TIMES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
345 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY...WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
10Z...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 50 KTS MOST LOCATIONS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS A LITTLE EARLY WITH NEW
FORECAST...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS
THE REGION. HRRR SUGGESTS SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR AND EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRES WILL LIKELY BE LAST TO DIMINISH...WITH STILL A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN THE 30-50 KT RANGE...THOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME/DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED. OVER THE
PLAINS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY BY THIS
MORNING...REPLACED BY DEEPENING LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF I25 WILL
SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY...INCREASING IN SPEED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KS BORDER. FAR EASTERN PLAINS
MAY SEE MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CREEPING UPWARD TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SKATE BY WITHOUT A FIRE HIGHLIGHT NEEDED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER MOST AREAS THAN YESTERDAY`S EXTREME VALUES...THOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL RUN SOME 10-20F WARMER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MIN TEMPS RATHER MILD ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S/30S MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
...WARM START TO THE WEEKEND...
...BRIEF RETURN TO WINTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG STRING OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE PLUS TWO TO FOUR RANGE...AND WITH WRLY WINDS...SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN GET CLOSE TO OR EXCEED THE 70 DEGREE MARK AT KPUB AND OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING AND
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE DVD BY LATE SAT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT...WHEN THE ERN MTS
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHSN. LATEST NAM IS DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SERN CO. SHOULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE
AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MTN ZONES...SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO
THE GFS AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING TRRN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL COME MON AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON NIGHT AS A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS PROGS H7 TEMPS AS LOW AS MINUS 12 DEGREES C BY TUE MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT. NOT TERRIBLY COLD BY NORMAL
FEB STANDARDS...BUT COMING ON THE HEELS OF WHAT LIKELY WILL BE THE
WARMEST OR ONE OF THE WARMEST FEBRUARYS ON RECORD...IT WILL BE A
TASTE OF TRUE WINTER CONDITIONS. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR QPF THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IN ETHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD 24
HOUR PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FOR OUR AREA. WITH THE FAVORABLE GFS...COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE FOR THE ERN MTS AND
PLAINS BY TUE MORNING. HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TUE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.
UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS FROM WED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...RETURNING US TO DRY WX WITH TEMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SHSN FOR THE DVD GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STILL SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS AT
KCOS AND KPUB THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 30 KTS UNTIL 16Z.
WINDS DIMINISH BRIEFLY LATE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BOTH SITES BY MIDDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPING. AT KALS...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND WILL STAY UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
SYSTEM IS EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS WY/CO WITH CORE OF STRONG SFC
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NORTHEAST CO. WINDS HAVE COME UP WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...SPECIFICALLY DOWN AROUND
WALSENBURG...AND IN THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY SENSORS. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH HRRR RUNS WHICH SUGGEST THERE IS STILL A WINDOW FOR HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z PARTICULARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-25.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SET OF HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE DOWN THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE 15
PERCENT CRITICAL THRESHOLD. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MYP HAS REPORTED A 98 MPH
GUST WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. THIS IS IN THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
MSAS 3 HR SFC PRESSURE RISES ARE A QUITE IMPRESSIVE 5-10 MB
ACROSS NORTHWEST CO...AND AS THIS CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WINDOW FOR HIGH WINDS TO
SPILL DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR
POINTS TO THIS WINDOW BETWEEN 03Z-07Z WITH GREATEST CONCERN
AREAS DOWN AROUND THE COLORADO CITY TO TRINIDAD AREAS. CURRENT
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW SO WILL MAINTAIN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 531 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
UPDATED TO SPREAD HIGH WIND WARNINGS INTO EASTERN FREMONT AND
PUEBLO COUNTY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25. TROF
AXIS IS CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND STRONG DOWNWARD
FORCING BEHIND THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THESE STRONG WINDS
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS
STILL INDICATING PEAK PERIOD FOR WIND GUSTS WILL BE NOW THROUGH
AROUND 03Z...THEN THREAT AREA PULLS BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE
FORECAST DISTRICT INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STRONG
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL AND POPS/HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW.
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL MID TO LATE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AS NOTED BY AN
ALL TIME TYING FEBRUARY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81F AT WFO
PUEBLO...STRONG WINDS AS EVIDENCED BY RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 84 MPH AT
MONARCH PASS AND 82 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR SAN ISABEL IN COMBINATION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BASED ON RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AND INCOMING COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO ALSO INCLUDE PUBLIC
ZONES 78/79/84 AND 85 AS WELL AS EXTENDING ALL HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
TO 12Z FRIDAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT OVER EL PASO COUNTY...THE HIGHEST
WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. IN
ADDITION...WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT AGAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO POST ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NORTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT...STILL PROJECT THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FAVORING SECTIONS
OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES WHERE LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNSET TONIGHT UNTIL SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FINALLY...WILL ALSO DEPICT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER SEVERAL
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT MILD IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER OVER THE
SERN PLAINS...THE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH 60S TO
AROUND 70 OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND 50S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
MT INTO SD AND NE...WHICH THEN SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE
NORTHEAST SUN MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACRS THE SERN PLAINS. THE
WEATHER WL STILL BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT TEMPS WL BE A
BIT COOLER.
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE AND
IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. IT COULD ALSO
BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN TO SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL
LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. UNSETTLED NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE OVR THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND PROBABLY BRINGING SOME MORE PCPN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HAVE A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR PCPN TO MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS...AND AROUND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
ON WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THU...THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CO...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PCPN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM STAYING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-072>075-
078>088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PCPN
TONIGHT. AT MOST...ONE OR TWO HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. BASED ON
LATEST RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS HRRRX...CONTINUE CONFINED POPS TO
NORTHERN ZONES - EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS DO NOT EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO MEASURE. OVER ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTIES...TEMPS WOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING -
THUS HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN AFFECT FOR THAT REGION.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING OR BE RISING WITH
SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN IS LIQUID AND HAVE
WORDED IT AS JUST SPRINKLES.
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS ARE STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH A SW FLOW THAT WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE USED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
NOW...BUT IF GFS MOS IS CORRECT...WE COULD APPROACH 60 IN THE
NJ/NYC METRO.
WEAK...AND DRY...COLD FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. AGAIN USED CONSENSUS MOS...BUT GFS MOS IS
WARMER AGAIN - NOT SURE OF THE REASON FOR THIS.
NEXT CONCERN IS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. GEFS PLUMES INDICATE THAT
THE OPERATIONAL 12Z IS AN OUTLIER. ALSO...THE PARALLEL GFS HAS
PCPN UP TO LONG ISLAND. WITH ECMWF...SREF...GEFS AND NAM ALL
SUPPORTING PCPN...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE PCPN COMES WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE EVENING. THUS
WITH TEMPS NOT SUPPORTING SNOW ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS ARE LOW.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR AFTER THAT TEMPS START TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATION.
TEMPS REMAIN TOO WARM IN THE NY METRO FOR ACCUMULATION.
PCPN EXITS BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND EXPECTING A SEASONABLE DAY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIKELY MOVING INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
AT THIS TIME THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS STILL THE FASTER COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE
TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF
BRIEF MIXED PCPN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR KSWF. AFTER
06Z...HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHRA PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH TERMINALS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT PROB30 IN TAFS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY WILL BE VFR AND DRY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S 10-15 KT THIS EVENING AND MAY GUST AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SHOW WINDS MAY BE
GUSTIER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ALONG COAST.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW. BECOMING VFR
LATE MON WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SE CANADA. SCA ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON
THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN (HYDROLOGICALLY) THROUGH SUNDAY. AROUND A
QUARTER INCH LIQUID/LIQUID EQUIVALENT SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...FIG/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...FIG/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT
THEN APPROACHES TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TEMPS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION.
LIGHT PCPN OVER EASTERN PA...FALLING FROM A MID DECK AROUND 700
HPC IS GENERATING A FEW IP`S AS IT APPROACHES NJ. HRRR
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAKES SENSE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE DRY AIR. STILL COULD HAVE A PELLET OR TWO IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN.
TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY PCPN TONIGHT. AT
MOST...A COUPLE OF HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. BASED ON LATEST RAP AND
HRRR AS WELL AS HRRRX...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO NORTHERN ZONES.
COASTAL/SOUTH...LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN IS LIQUID IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THINKING PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR IP INLAND AND
SPRINKLES FOR THE COAST (TRACE). SFC TEMPS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY ACCUMULATION (LESS THAN A HALF INCH) WHERE TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SW
FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. WENT CLOSER TO WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH WOULD HAVE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE
CWA REACHING AT LEAST 50. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH THEN PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO EXPECT A DRY
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE TO
BEGIN SUNDAY. AN H5 VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND
CARVES OUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...AND THEN TRACKS QUICKLY OFF THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS NOT
MUCH TIME FOR THIS WAVE TO AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN INTO A DEEPER LOW.
OVERALL...00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/NAM ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN TRACK. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GGEM A BIT DEEPER. THE
GGEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...TRACKING THE LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS THE H5 ENERGY IS MORE ELONGATED AND THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 03Z SREF MEAN IS
SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. SAMPLING SHOULD IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RAOB NETWORK.
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE LOW. THE LOW TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
PTYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES. DEEP UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO POSSIBLY THURSDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN MAINLY DUE TO THE EXACT TRACK AND FROM PHASING OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW SHOWS
THIS SOURCE OF COLD AIR MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE FRONT END LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. FOLLOWED
SUPERBLEND POPS CLOSELY...WHICH CONTINUES LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE ON THURSDAY. IT IS
PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS LARGE SPREAD WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE SUITES...SO THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF
BRIEF MIXED PCPN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR KSWF. AFTER
06Z...HI RES MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF MIXED PRECIP
PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT
PROB30 IN TAFS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY WILL BE VFR AND DRY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST BRIEFLY
AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO SW 10-15KT
WITH A GUSTS TO 20KT ALONG COAST BY MIDDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW. BECOMING VFR
LATE MON WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS THEN PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SE CANADA. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH SCA ON THE OCEAN
STARTING 00Z AND CARRY IT THROUGH SAT AFTN FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SEAS SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS COULD COME PRETTY CLOSE TO 25KT ON THE EASTERN SOUND...BUT
THIS WOULD NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SCA.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH WINDS
AND SEAS TOWARDS SCA LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
955 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT
THEN APPROACHES TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CHANGES FOR THE 10 AM UPDATE INCLUDES MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER
TEMPS FOR TODAY. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT HAS GENERATED SIGNIFICANT
CIRRO-STRATUS THAT IS NOW OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE TWIN
FORKS AND SOUTHEASTERN CT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AND THEN LOWER AND THICKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN THE MID AND THEN LOWER LEVELS.
WITH TEMPS TRENDS WELL ABOVE FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED TO LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE THAT WARMS THE REGION INTO THE 35-40 RANGE...LOWER
FOR40S FOR METRO NJ AND NYC DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY PCPN. AT MOST A COUPLE
OF HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS
HRRRX...HAVE CONFINED POP TO NORTHERN ZONES. SOUTH...LOOKS LIKE
ANY PCPN SPRINKLES WOULD BE IT.
WILL NEED TO REFINE THIS WITH THE 1 PM UPDATE. THOUGH WITH TEMPS
ONLY NEAR FREEZING INLAND...LOOKS LIKE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
LOW.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SW
FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. WENT CLOSER TO WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH WOULD HAVE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE
CWA REACHING AT LEAST 50. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH THEN PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO EXPECT A DRY
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE TO
BEGIN SUNDAY. AN H5 VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND
CARVES OUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...AND THEN TRACKS QUICKLY OFF THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS NOT
MUCH TIME FOR THIS WAVE TO AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN INTO A DEEPER LOW.
OVERALL...00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/NAM ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN TRACK. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GGEM A BIT DEEPER. THE
GGEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...TRACKING THE LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS THE H5 ENERGY IS MORE ELONGATED AND THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 03Z SREF MEAN IS
SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. SAMPLING SHOULD IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RAOB NETWORK.
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE LOW. THE LOW TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
PTYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES. DEEP UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO POSSIBLY THURSDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN MAINLY DUE TO THE EXACT TRACK AND FROM PHASING OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW SHOWS
THIS SOURCE OF COLD AIR MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE FRONT END LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. FOLLOWED
SUPERBLEND POPS CLOSELY...WHICH CONTINUES LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE ON THURSDAY. IT IS
PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS LARGE SPREAD WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE SUITES...SO THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NY
STATE MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN OFFSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...MAINLY
FOR KSWF...WHERE PCPN COULD START OUT AS -SN...THEN CHANGE TO
-FZRA BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ELSEWHERE...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
N/NE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME VRB THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO
THE S AT 5-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN...SNOW INLAND. BECOMING VFR
LATE MON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS THEN PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SE CANADA. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH SCA ON THE OCEAN
STARTING 00Z AND CARRY IT THROUGH SAT AFTN FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SEAS SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS COULD COME PRETTY CLOSE TO 25KT ON THE EASTERN SOUND...BUT
THIS WOULD NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SCA.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH WINDS
AND SEAS TOWARDS SCA LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...FEB/IRD
MARINE...JC/DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1006 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...A GORGEOUS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND AND A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO APPROACH THE
COAST GENERALLY SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE WHILE SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED
INLAND.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE COASTAL TROUGH.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTN AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH DAMPENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO COOL ONSHORE FLOW WHERE NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT MORE PATCHY FOG
FORMATION.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM SGJ TO GNV THIS AFTN AND EVENING UNDER
STRATOCUMULUS DECK MOVING ONSHORE. BREEZY ENE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
ACROSS MAINLY NE FL TERMINALS AND PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AFTER
06Z TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE PER ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY...THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EARLY SAT MORNING AT OUR FL TERMINALS AND CONTINUED TO
TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
&&
.MARINE...NE TO E WINDS 10-15 KTS EXPECTED TODAY AS COASTAL TROUGH
GRADUALLY DAMPENS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EDGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. SEAS REMAINED ELEVATED
RANGING FROM 4 FT AT GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 TO NEAR 6 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH 7 FT WAVES POSSIBLE NEAR GULF STREAM. OPTED TO DROP
THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR OUR NEARSHORE LEGS WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR 7 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTN.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 63 48 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 67 46 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 65 49 70 52 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 71 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 73 49 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1143 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
The main issue for the next 18 to 24 hours will be the strong
surface winds. Low pressure advancing across the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota by 12z tonight will cause a cold front to reach
western Illinois. During that time, the pressure gradient across
Illinois will remain the same, with only a rotation of the
orientation of the pressure pattern. The result will be a shift
in the surface winds from southeast to the southwest as wind
speeds remain 20 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph overnight. Starting around
12z tomorrow and continuing through late morning, a 60-70kt 925mb
jet max will become positioned from SW to NE across southeastern
Illinois, putting our strongest wind gusts east of I-55. Some
gusts east of I-55 toward mid-morning tomorrow could reach near
50 mph at times.
Cloud cover overnight will generally remain with thin high
clouds, which usually allows for chilly low temps this time of
year. However, the strong southerly winds will prevent temps from
dropping, and most areas will see slowly warming temps the rest of
tonight as readings reach the mid 40s NE of CMI and the low 50s SW
of SPI.
Main updates this evening were to temps, winds, and sky grids.
Updated forecast info will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Southeast winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, helping
to boost temperatures well into the 40s. Have seen some 50 degree
readings west of Springfield early this afternoon and 60s are fairly
widespread across central and western Missouri.
Not looking for much of a drop off in temperatures tonight, with
steady or rising temperatures from about 9 pm onward. Low level jet
really ramps up during the evening, with the RAP mode forecasting
2000 foot winds of 60-65 knots this evening and around 70 knots
after midnight over the southeast third of the forecast area. This
will help keep the wind gusts up and will go with gusts 30-35 mph in
most areas north of I-70. Stream of mid/high clouds will continue to
affect primarily the northern half of the forecast area tonight,
with some increase over the remainder of the area late tonight as
the cold front approaches.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High pressure to the east, combined with a low pressure area to the
northeast will tighten the gradient considerably, and along with the
very warm air, will bring much stronger winds into the region than
this afternoon. Southwest winds in the morning are expected to
increase with sustained winds between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts of
near 40mph. These strong winds will continue into the afternoon, but
begin to taper off late afternoon after the dry trough moves through
and winds switch to more west-southwest. However, will keep the
advisory going through 00z tomorrow. Wind Advisory will be for the
whole area as well. Once this trough comes through Friday, zonal
flow will control the area through the weekend.
Another low pressure area will develop in the south and move toward
the area for the weekend. Models differ on how far north the low
pressure area gets, with the ECMWF furthest north. GFS and NAM are
furthest south and therefore much drier over the CWA. However, going
forecast for now is pcpn across the CWA Sat night and then just in
the southeast for Sunday. With model uncertainty still, will keep
forecast as is for now...which does include likely pops in the
southeast Sat night.
Temps will start out very warm tomorrow and should continue into Sat
ahead of the pcpn. Then temps cool as clouds and pcpn move through
the area Sunday. Temps next three days will be very above normal.
Extended period looks to be very dry as flow remains somewhat zonal
through the middle of next week. Extended models have some
disagreement on chances of pcpn Wed night and Thur, but best to keep
things dry for now until models work things out. Temps will be
cooler than this weekend, but still be slightly above normal. Temps
will be warmer early in the extended, then decrease some toward the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A tight pressure gradient across Illinois will dominate the
aviation weather over the next 18 hours. Deep low pressure is
expected to progress from the Dakotas to eastern Lake Superior
between 06z tonight and 00z tomorrow. As it does, a weak cold
front will push across Illinois. The main result locally will be
for wind directions to change from southeast the rest of tonight,
to southwest after sunrise tomorrow, and due west by mid
afternoon, after FROPA.
The strongest wind speeds over the next 12 hours look to be
between 14z and 18z tomorrow, when the strongest period of 850mb
LLJ winds (70-80kts) will be across our southeast counties. The
location of that jet max should keep the highest surface wind
gusts of 45kt near our eastern terminals of DEC and CMI, and
possibly BMI. Gusts should be less intense during the afternoon,
but still strong around 35-38kt. Tomorrow evening, directions will
return to the southwest as wind speeds diminish quickly after
sunset.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
1530Z UPDATE...MANY UPDATES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE SUMMARIZED AS
SUCCINCTLY AS POSSIBLE. FIRST OFF...NEARLY ALL THE THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SEVERELY UNDERDOING THE ABUNDANT WARMTH
PRODUCED BY THIS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM/MOS HIGH OF 54
HAS LONG SINCE BEEN EXCEEDED AS WELL AS THE 61 THE MAV PREDICTED.
OPTED TO GO WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ROUTE...BASED ON THE MUCH
WARMER ILX SOUNDING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES THAT
EITHER A HIGH OF 66 UNDER CLOUDY SKIES IS POSSIBLE OR A MUCH
HIGHER 73 FOR CLEAR SKIES. WENT UP THE MIDDLE CONSIDERING THE
AREA WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST AND DEFINITELY TOOK INTO
CONSIDERATION THE STRENGTH OF THIS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
HAS ALREADY PROPELLED TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY BEFORE EVEN 11AM
THIS MORNING. (OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT KIND IS 69
SET BACK IN 1930...AND ALSO FOR SATURDAY THE RECORD HIGH IS 67
SET BACK IN 1983.)
ADDITIONALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BOTH IN
THE FORM OF SUSTAINED AND GUSTS...SO LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY
INTACT...HOWEVER INCREASED TO THE WINDS TO A HIGH- END ADVISORY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE MADE
AT THIS TIME. ZFP AND THE UPDATE ADVISORY ALREADY SENT OUT. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
TRENDS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MORE TOWARD LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES
NECESSITATING AT LEAST VERY LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS APPEAR IN THE OFFING HOWEVER.
WILL NEED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS A
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BE BORDERLINE EACH PERIOD...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO...AND ANY PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN THE WARM WEEKEND
READINGS BUT WITHIN SIGHT OF NORMALS MUCH OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS IN THE REALM OF 35-45 KT WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS RELAXING GRADUALLY IN THE EVENING
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN ISSUE WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE...WITH
WINDS JUST ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION OF AROUND 35KT...AROUND 800 FT
AGL.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.
NO SIGNIFICANT OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1217 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
1530Z UPDATE...MANY UPDATES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE SUMMARIZED AS
SUCCINCTLY AS POSSIBLE. FIRST OFF...NEARLY ALL THE THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SEVERELY UNDERDOING THE ABUNDANT WARMTH
PRODUCED BY THIS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM/MOS HIGH OF 54
HAS LONG SINCE BEEN EXCEEDED AS WELL AS THE 61 THE MAV PREDICTED.
OPTED TO GO WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ROUTE...BASED ON THE MUCH
WARMER ILX SOUNDING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES THAT
EITHER A HIGH OF 66 UNDER CLOUDY SKIES IS POSSIBLE OR A MUCH
HIGHER 73 FOR CLEAR SKIES. WENT UP THE MIDDLE CONSIDERING THE
AREA WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST AND DEFINITELY TOOK INTO
CONSIDERATION THE STRENGTH OF THIS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
HAS ALREADY PROPELLED TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY BEFORE EVEN 11AM
THIS MORNING. (OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT KIND IS 69
SET BACK IN 1930...AND ALSO FOR SATURDAY THE RECORD HIGH IS 67
SET BACK IN 1983.)
ADDITIONALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BOTH IN
THE FORM OF SUSTAINED AND GUSTS...SO LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY
INTACT...HOWEVER INCREASED TO THE WINDS TO A HIGH- END ADVISORY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE MADE
AT THIS TIME. ZFP AND THE UPDATE ADVISORY ALREADY SENT OUT. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS IN THE REALM OF 35-45 KT WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS RELAXING GRADUALLY IN THE EVENING
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN ISSUE WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE...WITH
WINDS JUST ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION OF AROUND 35KT...AROUND 800 FT
AGL.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.
NO SIGNIFICANT OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1128 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
1530Z UPDATE...MANY UPDATES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE SUMMARIZED AS
SUCCINCTLY AS POSSIBLE. FIRST OFF...NEARLY ALL THE THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SEVERELY UNDERDOING THE ABUNDANT WARMTH
PRODUCED BY THIS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM/MOS HIGH OF 54
HAS LONG SINCE BEEN EXCEEDED AS WELL AS THE 61 THE MAV PREDICTED.
OPTED TO GO WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ROUTE...BASED ON THE MUCH
WARMER ILX SOUNDING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES THAT
EITHER A HIGH OF 66 UNDER CLOUDY SKIES IS POSSIBLE OR A MUCH
HIGHER 73 FOR CLEAR SKIES. WENT UP THE MIDDLE CONSIDERING THE
AREA WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST AND DEFINITELY TOOK INTO
CONSIDERATION THE STRENGTH OF THIS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
HAS ALREADY PROPELLED TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY BEFORE EVEN 11AM
THIS MORNING. (OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT KIND IS 69
SET BACK IN 1930...AND ALSO FOR SATURDAY THE RECORD HIGH IS 67
SET BACK IN 1983.)
ADDITIONALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BOTH IN
THE FORM OF SUSTAINED AND GUSTS...SO LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY
INTACT...HOWEVER INCREASED TO THE WINDS TO A HIGH- END ADVISORY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE MADE
AT THIS TIME. ZFP AND THE UPDATE ADVISORY ALREADY SENT OUT. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL AROUND
15Z...WHEN GUSTS WILL PICK UP TO 35-45 KTS AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WIND GUSTS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT
DECREASE SOME AR0OUND SUNSET AND GUSTS SHOULD CEASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS...TIME HEIGHTS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SEE SOME CURRENTLY ACROSS ARKANSAS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST. THINK THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD
DROP CEILINGS FOR A TIME SO WILL INCLUDE THESE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
932 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL AROUND
15Z...WHEN GUSTS WILL PICK UP TO 35-45 KTS AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WIND GUSTS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT
DECREASE SOME AR0OUND SUNSET AND GUSTS SHOULD CEASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS...TIME HEIGHTS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SEE SOME CURRENTLY ACROSS ARKANSAS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST. THINK THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD
DROP CEILINGS FOR A TIME SO WILL INCLUDE THESE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
614 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 191200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL AROUND
15Z...WHEN GUSTS WILL PICK UP TO 35-45 KTS AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WIND GUSTS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT
DECREASE SOME AR0OUND SUNSET AND GUSTS SHOULD CEASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS...TIME HEIGHTS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SEE SOME CURRENTLY ACROSS ARKANSAS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST. THINK THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD
DROP CEILINGS FOR A TIME SO WILL INCLUDE THESE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. ALTHOUGH GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF
CURRENTLY EXPECT THEM TO PICK BACK UP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DISCUSSED BELOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE THEM IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AROUND 015 THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF A
65-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 190900Z-191500Z. THREAT
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE MORNING FRIDAY AS
THIS INVERSION DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 040 BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS ON FRIDAY. FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
FROM 140-160 DEGREES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO 200-220 DEGREES BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS PROBABLE BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
244 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
...Updated Short term, Long term, and Fire weather discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies overnight as an area of high pressure at the surface
slides east southeast into Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. On the
west side of this surface high a southerly wind will increase to
around 10 knots. Based on these wind speeds overnight along with
clear skies will continue to favor overnight lows generally in the
upper 30s to lower 40. On Saturday a cold front will cross
southwest Kansas as an upper level trough, which was located off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest at 12z Friday, crosses the
northern Plains. The NAM and GFS indicate only a +1 to +2C
difference in both the 900mb and 850mb level between 00z Saturday
and 00z Sunday. Based on this temperature trend the highs on
Saturday will range from the mid 60s in north central and west
central Kansas to the lower 70s in south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
On Saturday night this cold front will then move into the Texas
Panhandle and northern Texas where it will become nearly
stationary from Sunday into early next week. North of this front
some cooler air will begin to filter into western and north
central Kansas as an area of high pressure a the surface crosses
the northern plains. Based on the cooling trend in the 900mb to
850mb level between 00z Sunday and 00z Monday along with the 850mb
temperatures at 00z Monday it appears highs on Sunday will vary
from the mid 50s to around 60. On Monday the highs are expected to
range from 50 to 55 as the surface ridge axis slowly slides east
into northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas.
Moisture and 850mb warm air advection will begin to develop
across southwest Kansas Monday night as another upper level
disturbance crosses the northern Rockies and begins to approach
western Kansas. Clouds will initially return to western Kansas
Monday evening but the chance of precipitation will increase
towards 12z Tuesday as moisture and lift improves ahead of the
approaching upper level wave. The chance for precipitation will
continue across western Kansas until this upper level wave passes
early Tuesday night. Also give the 900mb to 850mb temperatures at
00z Wednesday along with expected cloud cover and the chances for
precipitation on Tuesday the highs may struggle into the lower
50s. Highs should be mainly in the upper 40s.
Temperatures will begin to warm mid week as a northwest flow
improves across the central Rockies, however another cold front
will take aim at western Kansas by late week. Given the
differences between the models late week confidence is not high on
how warm the warm up will be Wednesday and Thursday so will stay
close to the CRExtendedFcst_Init for highs in the later periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Winds at less than 10 knots this afternoon will become southeast
at around 10 mph early tonight as an area of high pressure at the
surface moves from western Kansas into north central Oklahoma and
south central Kansas by evening. These southerly winds at around
10 knots will continue overnight as a trough of low pressure
begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies. RAP and HRRR
indicating VRF conditions over the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Gusty northwest winds will develop behind a cold front as it
crosses western Kansas from late Saturday morning through the mid
afternoon. Although the wind speeds will be increasing into the 15
to 20 mph range during the afternoon, the relative humidity values
will range from 18 to 25 percent. This will once again result an
elevated fire weather day but red flag warning conditions are not
anticipated. Outdoor burning is discouraged.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 40 70 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 37 69 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 41 69 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 39 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 37 67 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
P28 43 73 39 62 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
141 PM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITHIN EXPECTED REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS A PLUME
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON
SPRINGS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TREND HAS BE TOWARD DECREASING WINDS AS PEAK
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRONT AND STRONGEST
LLJ. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRONG LLJ IN PLACE MAINLY IN
THE EAST...HOWEVER BL WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING MIXING.
RAP/HRRR/NAM DO SHOW A SMALL REGION OF HIGHER BL WINDS LINGERING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR 50KT) IN
REGION OF BROAD SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS DOESNT MATCH UPSTREAM OBS
(NOT MIXING TO SURFACE). CONSIDERING AREA OBS ARE WELL BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND AWAY FROM
POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST I DECIDED TO CANCEL WARNING EARLY. WE MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS 50-55 MPH...BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
VERY DRY...AND DESPITE A FEW WEAK QPF SIGNALS BY GEM/ECMWF SAT NIGHT
THE REST OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF DRY LAYER ON SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING ECMWF). A COLD FRONT AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY CONCERNS WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION AS TUESDAY.
BEGINNING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SEMI-POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 700-500 MB THETA-E
LAPSE RATES INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST
THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL, PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF BOUT OF WINDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SHOWERS GIVEN DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A FEW GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS EVENT APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE
VALENTINE`S DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND WE OBSERVE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO.
THE OTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM MAY POSE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS (IN
CONTRAST TO SATURDAY NIGHT`S SYSTEM). A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY BEGIN
AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...A CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
APPEARS PROBABLE. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN IS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DIVE
TOO FAR SOUTH TOO QUICKLY. THIS WOULD ESSENTIALLY CAUSE THE TRI-
STATE REGION TO MISS OUT ON THIS PRECIPITATION CHANCE. THIS WOULD
LEAVE US CLOUDY...COOL AND DRY. IF THIS SYSTEM PUSHES ANY FURTHER
SOUTH...OBSERVATIONS OF DENSE CLOUD COVER MAY EVEN BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KGLD...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11KTS WILL STEADILY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AT 10KTS THROUGH 23Z THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH 09Z. AROUND 16Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20KTS EXPECTED. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH REDUCED SPEEDS AROUND 23Z..FURTHER
BACKING TO THE SOUTH NEAR 7KTS BY 03Z. AFTER 07Z WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 17Z NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS EXPECTED. PRIMARY CLOUDS WILL BE CIRRUS
LEVEL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1115 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
An amplified upper trough was lifting east-northeast across NE
during the early morning hours. A strong LLJ of 60 KTS ahead of
the the 850mb trough was shifting east into western MO. A cold
front was moving east into north central KS. Westerly winds have
increased to 30 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH behind the front
and will remain above wind advisory criteria across north central
KS through 12Z.
There will be weak CAA through the day but westerly surface winds
will keep temperature mild with most areas reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. West-northwest winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours as the stronger 850mb winds shift eastward into the
mid MS river valley by 00Z SAT.
Tonight, light westerly winds will back to the southwest and south
through the night. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s
across north central KS with lower to mid 40s across east central
KS.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Westerly flow aloft carries a series of weak embedded disturbances
while a cold front shifts winds to the north during the day
Saturday. Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary with some
steepening of mid level lapse rates could develop a few
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into early evening. In
addition, shear profiles are decent at 45 to 50 kts. Best thunder
chances are towards Missouri, while across the CWA the current and
previous runs of the NAM are the only model developing precip as
far north as Topeka. I have a low end slight chc mention for TOP
however believe the better chances reside over Anderson, Coffey, and
Franklin counties.
A cooling trend begins on Sunday as a modified airmass drops
highs Sunday back to near 60 degrees. As an upper trough passes east
of the area, cooler temps come in on the backside with readings in
the 50s through the week. Overnight lows are generally near the
freezing mark. Main change to the extended was to add chances for
rain Monday evening as a progressive shortwave trough dives
southeast through the plains. While forcing centers along a sfc cold
front from the northwest, the wave itself is disorganized with both
the GFS and ECMWF developing scattered areas of qpf over the region.
Profilers suggest above freezing temps at 850 mb while sfc temps are
progged a few degrees above freezing, resulting in rain as most
likely precip type.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR conditions expected for the entire forecast period. Winds
continue to back to the south by morning and decrease in speed.
Gusts at times still in place this afternoon until near sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1111 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
The RAP model mixes out the low-level moisture across the CWA during
the mid morning hours and keeps low dewpoints in the teens through
the afternoon hours. I went a bit higher than the RAP model for
dewpoints but RHs will drop to or below 20 percent across much of
the CWA during the late morning hours. The steep dry adiabatic lapse
rates to 840-820 MB should transport higher winds towards the
surface, with wind speeds of 15-25 MPH and gusts to 30 to 35 MPH
into the early afternoon hours. As the stronger flow aloft shifts
northeast of the area this afternoon, the winds will diminish
through the mid and late afternoon hours. Even though the sustain
winds may diminish to 10 to 20 MPH during the mid afternoon hours
the 25 MPH wind gust may continue due to the deep mixing.
Given wind gusts greater than 25 MPH during the late morning hours
into the mid afternoon hours, RH`s falling into the upper teens
during the late morning and afternoon hours, and dry fuels I will
issue a red flag warning for the entire CWA from 10 AM this morning
through 5 PM this afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
At 12z one 500mb trough was located over South Dakota with
another upper level trough located over northern
Montana/southwest Saskatchewan. A third upper level system was
located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and was associated
with the left exit region of a upper level jet. Over the Central
Plains at 12z Friday a 700 mb baroclinic zone extended from
northeast Colorado to southwest Iowa, A surface cold front along
with an 850mb baroclinic zone stretched from southeast Colorado to
northeast Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
It will not be nowhere near as warm today as compared to yesterday.
Truth be told, it will actually be quite pleasant with temperatures
ranging from the upper 60s along the Interstate 70 corridor to perfect
room temperature lower 70s near the Oklahoma border. Lower dewpoints
are moving in from the west, and there will be decreasing winds today.
As a result, there will be elevated fire weather conditions possible
across the forecast district. See the fire weather section for more
details. Winds are forecast to be downslope NNW through the overnight.
Some of the models are warmer than others (ECE vs. MET). Wondering if
the NAM is too cold for lows tonight. Since the wind is progged to stay
up a bit, took the warmer solution with overnight lows ranging from
39 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Weak low level warm air advection is forecast along the OK border and
points southeast of the forecast district Saturday morning. I have very
low 5 percent pops across the SE, but none of the models are indicating
anything more than some clouds. Otherwise, the next chance for higher
probabilities of precipitation comes Tuesday as a synoptic wave moves
in the from the NW. A moderate strength 250-hPa jet is forecast with
said feature and there might be enough dynamics to squeeze out some
light precipitation. Confidence is pretty low though and moisture trajectories
could be a lot better. The superblend solution looks fine for now as
a first order approximation. Otherwise, temperatures will be near to
slightly above seasonal values and there doesn`t appear to be a significant
warming episode with the long term temporal forecast domain.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Winds at less than 10 knots this afternoon will become southeast
at around 10 mph early tonight as an area of high pressure at the
surface moves from western Kansas into north central Oklahoma and
south central Kansas by evening. These southerly winds at around
10 knots will continue overnight as a trough of low pressure
begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies. RAP and HRRR
indicating VRF conditions over the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
As with last night, sought after a lower dewpoint solution as the models
are running a bit high compared to actual observations. Minimum afternoon
relative humidities are progged to be in the 12-18 percent range. The
proverbial fly in the ointment is the winds will actually decrease with
time today. As a result, I do not believe red flag conditions will be
met. Sure, there will be elevated conditions. The bottom line, burning
is discouraged.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 40 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 69 37 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 73 41 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 73 39 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 37 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
P28 73 43 74 39 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
930 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITHIN EXPECTED REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS A PLUME
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON
SPRINGS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TREND HAS BE TOWARD DECREASING WINDS AS PEAK
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRONT AND STRONGEST
LLJ. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRONG LLJ IN PLACE MAINLY IN
THE EAST...HOWEVER BL WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING MIXING.
RAP/HRRR/NAM DO SHOW A SMALL REGION OF HIGHER BL WINDS LINGERING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR 50KT) IN
REGION OF BROAD SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS DOESNT MATCH UPSTREAM OBS
(NOT MIXING TO SURFACE). CONSIDERING AREA OBS ARE WELL BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND AWAY FROM
POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST I DECIDED TO CANCEL WARNING EARLY. WE MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS 50-55 MPH...BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
VERY DRY...AND DESPITE A FEW WEAK QPF SIGNALS BY GEM/ECMWF SAT NIGHT
THE REST OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF DRY LAYER ON SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING ECMWF). A COLD FRONT AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MST FRI
FEB 19 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME WITH RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD START IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND THEN COOL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER MID 50S
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT COOLING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KGLD...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11KTS WILL STEADILY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AT 10KTS THROUGH 23Z THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH 09Z. AROUND 16Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20KTS EXPECTED. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH REDUCED SPEEDS AROUND 23Z..FURTHER
BACKING TO THE SOUTH NEAR 7KTS BY 03Z. AFTER 07Z WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 17Z NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS EXPECTED. PRIMARY CLOUDS WILL BE CIRRUS
LEVEL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
THIS AFTERNOON LOW TDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
AND THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO SUPPORT RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA. WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSITIONS EAST AND NORTH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST.
THE WINDOW FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH APPEARS TO BE NARROW AND AT THE
MOST I COULD SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR IN PARTS OF OUR EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES JUST BARLEY REACHING 3HR RFW CRITERIA.
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND MAGNITUDE/DURATION I AM NOT PLANNING ON RFW ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
447 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITHIN EXPECTED REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS A PLUME
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON
SPRINGS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TREND HAS BE TOWARD DECREASING WINDS AS PEAK
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRONT AND STRONGEST
LLJ. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRONG LLJ IN PLACE MAINLY IN
THE EAST...HOWEVER BL WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING MIXING.
RAP/HRRR/NAM DO SHOW A SMALL REGION OF HIGHER BL WINDS LINGERING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR 50KT) IN
REGION OF BROAD SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS DOESNT MATCH UPSTREAM OBS
(NOT MIXING TO SURFACE). CONSIDERING AREA OBS ARE WELL BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND AWAY FROM
POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST I DECIDED TO CANCEL WARNING EARLY. WE MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS 50-55 MPH...BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
VERY DRY...AND DESPITE A FEW WEAK QPF SIGNALS BY GEM/ECMWF SAT NIGHT
THE REST OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF DRY LAYER ON SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING ECMWF). A COLD FRONT AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MST FRI
FEB 19 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME WITH RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD START IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND THEN COOL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER MID 50S
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT COOLING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG LLJ
WILL TRANSITION EAST AND NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS BY
15Z. BEFORE THAT OCCURS BOTH TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEER 45-55KT. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BELOW
12KT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
THIS AFTERNOON LOW TDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
AND THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO SUPPORT RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA. WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSITIONS EAST AND NORTH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST.
THE WINDOW FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH APPEARS TO BE NARROW AND AT THE
MOST I COULD SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR IN PARTS OF OUR EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES JUST BARLEY REACHING 3HR RFW CRITERIA.
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND MAGNITUDE/DURATION I AM NOT PLANNING ON RFW ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
544 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
An amplified upper trough was lifting east-northeast across NE
during the early morning hours. A strong LLJ of 60 KTS ahead of
the the 850mb trough was shifting east into western MO. A cold
front was moving east into north central KS. Westerly winds have
increased to 30 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH behind the front
and will remain above wind advisory criteria across north central
KS through 12Z.
There will be weak CAA through the day but westerly surface winds
will keep temperature mild with most areas reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. West-northwest winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours as the stronger 850mb winds shift eastward into the
mid MS river valley by 00Z SAT.
Tonight, light westerly winds will back to the southwest and south
through the night. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s
across north central KS with lower to mid 40s across east central
KS.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Westerly flow aloft carries a series of weak embedded disturbances
while a cold front shifts winds to the north during the day
Saturday. Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary with some
steepening of mid level lapse rates could develop a few
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into early evening. In
addition, shear profiles are decent at 45 to 50 kts. Best thunder
chances are towards Missouri, while across the CWA the current and
previous runs of the NAM are the only model developing precip as
far north as Topeka. I have a low end slight chc mention for TOP
however believe the better chances reside over Anderson, Coffey, and
Franklin counties.
A cooling trend begins on Sunday as a modified airmass drops
highs Sunday back to near 60 degrees. As an upper trough passes east
of the area, cooler temps come in on the backside with readings in
the 50s through the week. Overnight lows are generally near the
freezing mark. Main change to the extended was to add chances for
rain Monday evening as a progressive shortwave trough dives
southeast through the plains. While forcing centers along a sfc cold
front from the northwest, the wave itself is disorganized with both
the GFS and ECMWF developing scattered areas of qpf over the region.
Profilers suggest above freezing temps at 850 mb while sfc temps are
progged a few degrees above freezing, resulting in rain as most
likely precip type.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds are still the
main aviation hazard. LLWS is not in the TAFs at this time due to
the criteria likely not being met. However, based on 12z observed
sounding data, the highest observed winds in the lowest 2kft layer
are from 295 degrees at 47kts. Since surface winds are still
gusting and likely to continue this morning up into the mid 20kt
range, have not gone with LLWS mention. Winds slowly decrease
throughout the day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
The RAP model mixes out the low-level moisture across the CWA during
the mid morning hours and keeps low dewpoints in the teens through
the afternoon hours. I went a bit higher than the RAP model for
dewpoints but RHs will drop to or below 20 percent across much of
the CWA during the late morning hours. The steep dry adiabatic lapse
rates to 840-820 MB should transport higher winds towards the
surface, with wind speeds of 15-25 MPH and gusts to 30 to 35 MPH
into the early afternoon hours. As the stronger flow aloft shifts
northeast of the area this afternoon, the winds will diminish
through the mid and late afternoon hours. Even though the sustain
winds may diminish to 10 to 20 MPH during the mid afternoon hours
the 25 MPH wind gust may continue due to the deep mixing.
Given wind gusts greater than 25 MPH during the late morning hours
into the mid afternoon hours, RH`s falling into the upper teens
during the late morning and afternoon hours, and dry fuels I will
issue a red flag warning for the entire CWA from 10 AM this morning
through 5 PM this afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITHIN EXPECTED REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS A PLUME
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON
SPRINGS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TREND HAS BE TOWARD DECREASING WINDS AS PEAK
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRONT AND STRONGEST
LLJ. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRONG LLJ IN PLACE MAINLY IN
THE EAST...HOWEVER BL WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING MIXING.
RAP/HRRR/NAM DO SHOW A SMALL REGION OF HIGHER BL WINDS LINGERING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR 50KT) IN
REGION OF BROAD SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS DOESNT MATCH UPSTREAM OBS
(NOT MIXING TO SURFACE). CONSIDERING AREA OBS ARE WELL BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND AWAY FROM
POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST I DECIDED TO CANCEL WARNING EARLY. WE MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS 50-55 MPH...BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
VERY DRY...AND DESPITE A FEW WEAK QPF SIGNALS BY GEM/ECMWF SAT NIGHT
THE REST OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF DRY LAYER ON SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING ECMWF). A COLD FRONT AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MST FRI
FEB 19 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME WITH RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD START IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND THEN COOL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER MID 50S
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT COOLING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS WILL BE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND LLWS.
STRONG COLD FRONT AND WINDS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...SUSTAINED WINDS AT BOTH SITES
WILL BE NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 KNOTS. AFTER THAT THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BE LESS GUSTY WITH THE WINDS AT KMCK
DECREASING THE LAST. LLWS WILL OCCUR AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 14Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
THIS AFTERNOON LOW TDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
AND THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO SUPPORT RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA. WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSITIONS EAST AND NORTH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST.
THE WINDOW FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH APPEARS TO BE NARROW AND AT THE
MOST I COULD SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR IN PARTS OF OUR EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES JUST BARLEY REACHING 3HR RFW CRITERIA.
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND MAGNITUDE/DURATION I AM NOT PLANNING ON RFW ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
An amplified upper trough was lifting east-northeast across NE
during the early morning hours. A strong LLJ of 60 KTS ahead of
the the 850mb trough was shifting east into western MO. A cold
front was moving east into north central KS. Westerly winds have
increased to 30 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH behind the front
and will remain above wind advisory criteria across north central
KS through 12Z.
There will be weak CAA through the day but westerly surface winds
will keep temperature mild with most areas reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. West-northwest winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours as the stronger 850mb winds shift eastward into the
mid MS river valley by 00Z SAT.
Tonight, light westerly winds will back to the southwest and south
through the night. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s
across north central KS with lower to mid 40s across east central
KS.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Westerly flow aloft carries a series of weak embedded disturbances
while a cold front shifts winds to the north during the day
Saturday. Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary with some
steepening of mid level lapse rates could develop a few
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into early evening. In
addition, shear profiles are decent at 45 to 50 kts. Best thunder
chances are towards Missouri, while across the CWA the current and
previous runs of the NAM are the only model developing precip as
far north as Topeka. I have a low end slight chc mention for TOP
however believe the better chances reside over Anderson, Coffey, and
Franklin counties.
A cooling trend begins on Sunday as a modified airmass drops
highs Sunday back to near 60 degrees. As an upper trough passes east
of the area, cooler temps come in on the backside with readings in
the 50s through the week. Overnight lows are generally near the
freezing mark. Main change to the extended was to add chances for
rain Monday evening as a progressive shortwave trough dives
southeast through the plains. While forcing centers along a sfc cold
front from the northwest, the wave itself is disorganized with both
the GFS and ECMWF developing scattered areas of qpf over the region.
Profilers suggest above freezing temps at 850 mb while sfc temps are
progged a few degrees above freezing, resulting in rain as most
likely precip type.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Strong winds are the main concern with southwest winds around
22kts with gusts to around 35 kts expected ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. LLWS is expected with strong winds aloft near
60 kts through 11Z. Winds are expected to shift to the west
northwest behind the front and may be gusty with gusts to around
30 kts for a few hours. Winds will remain west and gradually
decrease to less than 10 kts after 22Z. VFR conditions are
expected through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
The RAP model mixes out the low-level moisture across the CWA during
the mid morning hours and keeps low dewpoints in the teens through
the afternoon hours. I went a bit higher than the RAP model for
dewpoints but RHs will drop to or below 20 percent across much of
the CWA during the late morning hours. The steep dry adiabatic lapse
rates to 840-820 MB should transport higher winds towards the
surface, with wind speeds of 15-25 MPH and gusts to 30 to 35 MPH
into the early afternoon hours. As the stronger flow aloft shifts
northeast of the area this afternoon, the winds will diminish
through the mid and late afternoon hours. Even though the sustain
winds may diminish to 10 to 20 MPH during the mid afternoon hours
the 25 MPH wind gust may continue due to the deep mixing.
Given wind gusts greater than 25 MPH during the late morning hours
into the mid afternoon hours, RH`s falling into the upper teens
during the late morning and afternoon hours, and dry fuels I will
issue a red flag warning for the entire CWA from 10 AM this morning
through 5 PM this afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1100 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POP AND SKY GRIDS PER THE
LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS AND ALSO HRRR. DID TWEAK THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE A QUICKLY DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING GENERALLY EAST THROUGH MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING
TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 PUSH THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING A TOUCH FOR THIS IN THE GRIDS. THE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CLOUD UP LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND GOOD MIXING/CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SLOW
ANY DROP OFF. DEWPOINTS...LIKEWISE...ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WIND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SKIES THAT HAVE
BROKEN OUT OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS FROM THIS MORNING AND NOW A
CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY.
DEVELOPING OUT WEST...IS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE
AREA. MODELS AGREE HAVE PRECIP DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE EAST AS THE LOW
TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS KY AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF KY. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KY. AS WELL...SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME PWATS IN
THE 1.10 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE AND WHILE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...THE
MENTIONED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MEAN THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE ON TO THE EAST BEFORE ANY CONCERNS WOULD ARISE. DID
LEAVE IN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS
TO COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ENGAGE WITH THE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH SO SHOULD NOT SEE A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ANYWHERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE BLUEGRASS BY 10Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH REGIME MATERIALIZES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
CLEARING SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING...BEHIND THIS WEEKEND/S
WAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGS NORTHEAST WINDS JUST
ABOUT PARALLEL WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN ANY
LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES MAKE AN ABRUPT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE NEXT ROUND OF
UPPER ENERGY WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PULL ANY APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE ONLY JUST
RECENTLY PENETRATED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. NONETHELESS...LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MORE BONAFIDE
AMOUNTS WILL BE HINDERED BY TERRAIN-PARALLEL OR DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS.
A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE EXACT TRACK...EVOLUTION...AND PHASING OF THIS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING THROUGH
LOWER CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ALL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. MOST SENSIBLE SOLUTION CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE RAIN
CHANCES RAMPING UP TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEP
IT TOUGH TO PINPOINT MORE IN THE WAY OF DETAILS. CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM. NEAR NORMAL READINGS
EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD LIKELY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
LOOK FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS WILL DROP
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BY
08Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 08Z
AS WELL...THOUGH ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE TOO FLEETING TO ADD INTO
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE A QUICKLY DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING GENERALLY EAST THROUGH MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING
TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 PUSH THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING A TOUCH FOR THIS IN THE GRIDS. THE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CLOUD UP LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND GOOD MIXING/CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SLOW
ANY DROP OFF. DEWPOINTS...LIKEWISE...ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WIND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SKIES THAT HAVE
BROKEN OUT OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS FROM THIS MORNING AND NOW A
CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY.
DEVELOPING OUT WEST...IS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE
AREA. MODELS AGREE HAVE PRECIP DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE EAST AS THE LOW
TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS KY AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF KY. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KY. AS WELL...SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME PWATS IN
THE 1.10 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE AND WHILE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...THE
MENTIONED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MEAN THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE ON TO THE EAST BEFORE ANY CONCERNS WOULD ARISE. DID
LEAVE IN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS
TO COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ENGAGE WITH THE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH SO SHOULD NOT SEE A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ANYWHERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE BLUEGRASS BY 10Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH REGIME MATERIALIZES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
CLEARING SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING...BEHIND THIS WEEKEND/S
WAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGS NORTHEAST WINDS JUST
ABOUT PARALLEL WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN ANY
LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES MAKE AN ABRUPT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE NEXT ROUND OF
UPPER ENERGY WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PULL ANY APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE ONLY JUST
RECENTLY PENETRATED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. NONETHELESS...LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MORE BONAFIDE
AMOUNTS WILL BE HINDERED BY TERRAIN-PARALLEL OR DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS.
A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE EXACT TRACK...EVOLUTION...AND PHASING OF THIS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING THROUGH
LOWER CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ALL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. MOST SENSIBLE SOLUTION CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE RAIN
CHANCES RAMPING UP TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEP
IT TOUGH TO PINPOINT MORE IN THE WAY OF DETAILS. CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM. NEAR NORMAL READINGS
EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD LIKELY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
LOOK FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS WILL DROP
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BY
08Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 08Z
AS WELL...THOUGH ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE TOO FLEETING TO ADD INTO
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
655 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY DRIVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
655 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING NH AND MAINE THIS
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AREAS. HAVE UPDATED
THE TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH HRRR HOURLIES AND RERUN WEATHER
GRIDS. THIS TAKES -FZRA OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE CARRABASSETT
VALLEY AND IS IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 6 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC. RADAR INDICATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY GOING
OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE FOOTHILLS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON AS DOWN
SLOPE WINDS KICK IN. IN THE NORTH CLOUDS WILL HANG IN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT
SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FOR JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MON AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ON WED THE HIGH EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THEN PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BY THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG/WARM OVERRUNNING PATTERN TO
SET UP WELL TO ITS EAST ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL MEAN INITIALLY THE
PTYPE WILL START AS SNOW WED BUT THEN CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS ALL AREAS WED NIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY PICK UP SEVERAL
INCHES MORE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. ON THU THE WARM UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AND SOME
SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM TEMPS BUT AS USUAL THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS. THU NIGHT THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND ALLOWS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRI. ALL MODELS IN
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND CLOSE ON TIMING. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND MID CONNECTICUT
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR MON-TUE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WED-THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED GALES DOWN TO SCA`S ON THE OUTER WATERS
AND WILL BE CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH.
LONG TERM...LIGHT WINDS MON THROUGH TUE. INCREASING EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST FLOW WED INTO THU SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
ANOTHER UPDATE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLEARING FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS MAINLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS CLEAR SKIES
WERE PUSHING QUICKLY OUR WAY. HOWEVER...IN TRUE NRN MICHIGAN
FASHION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING NNW...AND SHOW THAT
RELENTLESS DESIRE TO NOT CLEAR. CONFIDENCE A LITTLE LOW ON SEEING
DECENT SUN TODAY. WILL OPT TO JUST KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AFTERNOON. MAYBE SOME BETTER PROLONGED CLEARING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GTV BAY REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RACING HIGHER THAN FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE GTV BAY REGION AND ALONG M-55.
ALSO...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE POTENTIAL CLEARER SKIES FOR AWHILE WITH SOME
SHALLOW MIXING...COUPLED WITH INCOMING STRONG FORCING WITH WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH AND SHORTLY AFTER
FROPA...BETTER BL MIXING BRINGING DOWN 45 MPH GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING LOOKS GOOD UP TO GAYLORD/CHARLEVOIX/HARRISVILLE...AND
AREAS SOUTH OF THERE.
THE WINDS STAY GUSTY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...AND
WILL KEEP THE BL MIXED IN A DECENT ENOUGH FASHION FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS RAPIDLY ON THE WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND BASED OFF UPSTREAM CIG AND DEW
POINT TRENDS...MAY HAVE TROUBLE GENERATING ANY DRIZZLE UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON (WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...WITH
POTENTIAL CLEARING FLIRTING WITH MBL. ALL VFR ANYWAY WITH LOW
LEVELS BEING DRY. THATS GONNA CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING/MOST OF TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN (MAYBE A CLAP OF THUNDER?). THIS
FRONT WILL BRING THE MVFR CIGS IN...AS WELL AS HELP MIX A CHUNK OF
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THIS IS STILL LLWS...BUT
FEELING AS IF 30-4O KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PLN/APN.
THE MVFR CIGS APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL DEPART LATE TONIGHT WHILE
A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR BKN-OVC.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019>022-
025>036-041-042.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
...LULL IN PRECIP ATTM BUT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RETURNS THIS AFTN...
STRONG SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER DAKOTAS. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9C/KM
OVER SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE IN THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA. ATTM THOUGH IS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH MINIMAL DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF STRONG BAND OF WINTRY
MIX THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING. SEEMS THAT HEAVIEST FZRA
FELL OVER THE KEWEENAW WHILE OTHER FZRA OCCURRED OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. MAINLY SNOW OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. WHAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER
IN THE WAKE OF THAT ARC OF HEAVIER PRECIP IS NOT MUCH. DRIZZLE AND
FZDZ HAS BEEN PATCHY/INTERMITTENT WITH DRYING IN BLYR AS SEEN BY
SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS 3-5F IN MOST AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIP...STARTING OFF AS RAIN...MOVING IN BY AFTN AS
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SFC LOW WILL
BE DOWN TO LOWER THAN 990MB. CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVY FOR ALL BUT
KEWEENAW AND FAR EAST EARLY.
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM YET THOUGH. TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TODAY IS STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHERE ENHANCED LIFT WOULD OCCUR IN THE MID LEVEL FGEN.
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS ALOFT COMING CLOSE
TO 0C...SO SNOW COULD BE PTYPE DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PORTIONS OF NCNTRL AND
WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW AND AT LEAST MINOR
ACCUMS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT DUE TO WARM
TEMPS AT THE SFC IN THE MID 30S AT LEAST...SNOW ACCUMS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TO A SLUSHY INCH OR SO. CAVEOT TO THAT
IS IF THIS SNOW FALLS AT VERY HIGH RATES WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT MOVE ACROSS...A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE QUITE QUICKLY. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL MOST EMPHATIC WITH
THIS IDEA...BUT DIFFER ON WHERE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF IS PLACED.
SUPPOSE IF EVERYTHING CAME TOGETHER IDEALLY /NAMELY ENOUGH COOLING
ALOFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIBBON OF PRECIP FORCED BY
INSTABILITY ALOFT/ A SHORT DURATION HEADLINE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SLUSHY SNOW COULD BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE FM THE KEWEENAW TO THE NCNTRL
CWA. WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING FOR DAYSHIFT TO KEEP EYE ON AS DAY
WEARS ON.
INTO TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE EAST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER DZ/FZDZ SCENARIO FOR A
WHILE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
WITH UPLSOPE WESTERLY WINDS. WHEN ADDITIONAL PRECIP OCCURS LATER
TONIGHT AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH COOLING OF AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN ANY ONE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER 1
INCH...THOUGH LINGERING FORCING MAY RESULT IN MORE SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THE FAR EAST CWA.
GIVEN SUCH A STRONG LOW CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...S-SE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL...STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...GUSTS 35-45 MPH
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING FOR THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A LOWER AMPLITUDE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
WRN N AMERICA LEADING TO A DEEPENING TROF OVER ERN N AMERICA. THE
MODEST PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HOWEVER WILL ONLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL 5H HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR LATE FEB.
BEGINNING SAT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF AND FAR E. EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...PCPN
AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS TROF DEEPENS AROUND HUDSON BAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
SLOWLY S THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE FCST AREA SUN...BUT IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL LATE SUN THAT THE AIR MASS BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -16C SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON AND INVERSION FALLING TO 4KFT...LES WILL BE
LIGHT. DGZ WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...SO
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUN NIGHT.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT LES WILL END MON AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA AND THEN DRIFTS E. IN THE AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES DIVE SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
AREA BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF WAVES IS POOR...SO NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. HOWEVER...ANY SYNOPTIC -SN SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORCING IS GENERALLY WEAK...AND AT THIS POINT...LES DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AS 850 CAA NOT STRONG BEHIND SHORTWAVES
(COLDEST MODEL HAS 8H TEMPS LOWERING TO -18C) AND FLOW GENERALLY
ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MIXED PRECIP AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE A BAND
OF HEAVY MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPS IS UNCERTAIN. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT BEHIND A SECOND SHORTWAVE...BUT WILL SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS
AT KSAW AND KIWD SAT AS COLDER AIR AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRES AND LOW
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN SSE GALES OF 35-
40KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. GALE WARNING
CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH WINDS BRIEFLY AS THE LOW PASSES THIS
AFTN...STRONG W WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME
AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO MAINLY THE 15-25KT RANGE SAT THRU SUN MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT LATE SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF APPROACHES....WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AFTN THRU TUE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1239 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
BRING MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH WILL BE
EXPECTED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS
HIGHS WILL APPROACH 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH NO REAL COLD AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY. WE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THEN BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES
OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
I INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 55 MPH BASED ON MIXING
HEIGHTS FROM THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY
SLOT IS COMING THROUGH THE AREA NOW AND HELP THE CAUSE OF DEEPER
MIXING...VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER (USING BUFKIT). THE HRRR SHOWS 70
KNOTS DOWN TO 2000 FT BY MID AFTERNOON. WE MAY GET AN ISOLATED
GUST TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE A COMMON EVENT. I
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS IS.
I RECENTERED OUR POP GRID TO FOCUS THE SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THETA-E-E DECREASING WITH
HEIGHT TO 10000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SOME LIMITED
UNSTABLE CAPE. I EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE CWA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EQL IS BELOW THE
-20C HEIGHT SO I DO NOT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A REAL THREAT
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE WERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE FROM I-96 SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THAT PART OF OUR FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE WIND POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH A
GOOD POTENTIAL OF 50 MPH OCCURRING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WINDS...THE REST OF THE FCST IS RATHER
BENIGN WITH ONLY SOME PCPN CHCS AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
THE PCPN THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOVED OUT...AND IS EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PCPN/RAIN THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE INBETWEEN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM. AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AFTER 18Z.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST
CHC WILL BE UP NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER WAVE.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEY WILL LIKELY PEAK RIGHT AROUND OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EURO HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO APPROACH 60. WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE WILL GET
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN DOWN
SOUTH. WE SHOULD BE MIXING WELL AT THAT TIME...WITH GOOD POTENTIAL
OF MIXING CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS OF WIND FROM JUST 1-2K FT OFF OF THE
SFC. ALL DATA WE HAVE ANALYZED SHOWS 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE CWFA...WITH 55-60 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE FOR THE 55-60 MPH WINDS/WARNING...BUT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE UPGRADED IF NECESSARY.
THE WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN BY MID EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES EAST
AND WE LOSE THE BETTER DIURNAL MIXING COMPONENT. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH AS TWO UPPER WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...ONE EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE SECOND OVERNIGHT. THE
SECOND WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON
THE CWFA.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK QUIET AS WE WILL HAVE THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
AND SHORT WAVES WILL STAY NORTH. WE WILL SEE PCPN CHCS INCREASE SOME
ON SUN AS WE SEE YET ANOTHER WAVE DIVE IN...THIS ONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH SMALL CHCS OF PCPN FOR SUN AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
CHCS BY SUN AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
PCPN WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH FAIR AND COLDER WEATHER THEN
MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH
THIS LOW...AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW TWO OR MORE SEPARATE LOWS ALONG
WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF NORTHERN STREAM PHASING. MOST OF THE
SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS WITH ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH ITS
PRECIP SHIELD REMAINING WELL EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY TONIGHT. MVFR STRATOCU WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY AFFECT KMKG. HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KGRR COULD ALSO DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
I KEPT THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 5 AM BUT TEMINATED IT AFTER THAT
AS WINDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY ONCE THE GALE IS DONE THROUGH AND THAT SHOULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE SNOWPACK WILL MELT IN MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT THERE IS NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER IN THE
SNOWPACK. A NOHRSC MODEL INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT
IS CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASIN.
SO WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE RISES ON THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER NEAR
SCOTTVILLE THIS WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ICE JAMS ARE THE OTHER POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
BREAK- UP ICE JAM POTENTIAL SEEMS FAIRLY LOW. ACCUMULATED FREEZING
DEGREE DAYS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WINTER. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO ASSESS HOW THICK RIVER ICE MAY BE ACROSS THE STATE. MINOR ICE
JAMMING COULD CAUSE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS...BUT NONE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE APPROACHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY...AND THE FORECAST HIGH.
GRAND RAPIDS: RECORD - 59 DEGREES IN 1930 AND 1913
FORECAST - 59 DEGREES
LANSING: RECORD - 60 DEGREES IN 1994
FORECAST - 54 DEGREES
MUSKEGON: RECORD - 57 DEGREES IN 1954
FORECAST - 56 DEGREES
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...NJJ
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
BRING MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH WILL BE
EXPECTED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS
HIGHS WILL APPROACH 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH NO REAL COLD AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY. WE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THEN BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES
OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
I INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 55 MPH BASED ON MIXING
HEIGHTS FROM THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY
SLOT IS COMING THROUGH THE AREA NOW AND HELP THE CAUSE OF DEEPER
MIXING...VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER (USING BUFKIT). THE HRRR SHOWS 70
KNOTS DOWN TO 2000 FT BY MID AFTERNOON. WE MAY GET AN ISOLATED
GUST TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE A COMMON EVENT. I
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS IS.
I RECENTERED OUR POP GRID TO FOCUS THE SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THETA-E-E DECREASING WITH
HEIGHT TO 10000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SOME LIMITED
UNSTABLE CAPE. I EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE CWA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EQL IS BELOW THE
-20C HEIGHT SO I DO NOT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A REAL THREAT
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE WERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE FROM I-96 SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THAT PART OF OUR FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE WIND POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH A
GOOD POTENTIAL OF 50 MPH OCCURRING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WINDS...THE REST OF THE FCST IS RATHER
BENIGN WITH ONLY SOME PCPN CHCS AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
THE PCPN THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOVED OUT...AND IS EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PCPN/RAIN THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE INBETWEEN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM. AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AFTER 18Z.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST
CHC WILL BE UP NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER WAVE.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEY WILL LIKELY PEAK RIGHT AROUND OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EURO HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO APPROACH 60. WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE WILL GET
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN DOWN
SOUTH. WE SHOULD BE MIXING WELL AT THAT TIME...WITH GOOD POTENTIAL
OF MIXING CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS OF WIND FROM JUST 1-2K FT OFF OF THE
SFC. ALL DATA WE HAVE ANALYZED SHOWS 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE CWFA...WITH 55-60 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE FOR THE 55-60 MPH WINDS/WARNING...BUT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE UPGRADED IF NECESSARY.
THE WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN BY MID EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES EAST
AND WE LOSE THE BETTER DIURNAL MIXING COMPONENT. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH AS TWO UPPER WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...ONE EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE SECOND OVERNIGHT. THE
SECOND WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON
THE CWFA.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK QUIET AS WE WILL HAVE THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
AND SHORT WAVES WILL STAY NORTH. WE WILL SEE PCPN CHCS INCREASE SOME
ON SUN AS WE SEE YET ANOTHER WAVE DIVE IN...THIS ONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH SMALL CHCS OF PCPN FOR SUN AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
CHCS BY SUN AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
PCPN WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH FAIR AND COLDER WEATHER THEN
MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH
THIS LOW...AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW TWO OR MORE SEPARATE LOWS ALONG
WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF NORTHERN STREAM PHASING. MOST OF THE
SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS WITH ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH ITS
PRECIP SHIELD REMAINING WELL EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET...BUT WE HAVE KEPT CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE
3000 FEET GIVEN THE LACK OF LOWER STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
I KEPT THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 5 AM BUT TEMINATED IT AFTER THAT
AS WINDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY ONCE THE GALE IS DONE THROUGH AND THAT SHOULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE SNOWPACK WILL MELT IN MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT THERE IS NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER IN THE
SNOWPACK. A NOHRSC MODEL INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT
IS CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASIN.
SO WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE RISES ON THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER NEAR
SCOTTVILLE THIS WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ICE JAMS ARE THE OTHER POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
BREAK- UP ICE JAM POTENTIAL SEEMS FAIRLY LOW. ACCUMULATED FREEZING
DEGREE DAYS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WINTER. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO ASSESS HOW THICK RIVER ICE MAY BE ACROSS THE STATE. MINOR ICE
JAMMING COULD CAUSE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS...BUT NONE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE APPROACHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY...AND THE FORECAST HIGH.
GRAND RAPIDS: RECORD - 59 DEGREES IN 1930 AND 1913
FORECAST - 59 DEGREES
LANSING: RECORD - 60 DEGREES IN 1994
FORECAST - 54 DEGREES
MUSKEGON: RECORD - 57 DEGREES IN 1954
FORECAST - 56 DEGREES
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...NJJ
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
925 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
ANOTHER UPDATE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLEARING FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS MAINLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS CLEAR SKIES
WERE PUSHING QUICKLY OUR WAY. HOWEVER...IN TRUE NRN MICHIGAN
FASHION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING NNW...AND SHOW THAT
RELENTLESS DESIRE TO NOT CLEAR. CONFIDENCE A LITTLE LOW ON SEEING
DECENT SUN TODAY. WILL OPT TO JUST KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AFTERNOON. MAYBE SOME BETTER PROLONGED CLEARING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GTV BAY REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RACING HIGHER THAN FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE GTV BAY REGION AND ALONG M-55.
ALSO...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE POTENTIAL CLEARER SKIES FOR AWHILE WITH SOME
SHALLOW MIXING...COUPLED WITH INCOMING STRONG FORCING WITH WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH AND SHORTLY AFTER
FROPA...BETTER BL MIXING BRINGING DOWN 45 MPH GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING LOOKS GOOD UP TO GAYLORD/CHARLEVOIX/HARRISVILLE...AND
AREAS SOUTH OF THERE.
THE WINDS STAY GUSTY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...AND
WILL KEEP THE BL MIXED IN A DECENT ENOUGH FASHION FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS RAPIDLY ON THE WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND BASED OFF UPSTREAM CIG AND DEW
POINT TRENDS...MAY HAVE TROUBLE GENERATING ANY DRIZZLE UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON (WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AS VSBYS DROP TO IFR. LLWS WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING..WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019>022-
025>036-041-042.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
723 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS RAPIDLY ON THE WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND BASED OFF UPSTREAM CIG AND DEW
POINT TRENDS...MAY HAVE TROUBLE GENERATING ANY DRIZZLE UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON (WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AS VSBYS DROP TO IFR. LLWS WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING..WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ020-025-026-031>036-041-042.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
715 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
...LULL IN PRECIP ATTM BUT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RETURNS THIS AFTN...
STRONG SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER DAKOTAS. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9C/KM
OVER SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE IN THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA. ATTM THOUGH IS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH MINIMAL DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF STRONG BAND OF WINTRY
MIX THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING. SEEMS THAT HEAVIEST FZRA
FELL OVER THE KEWEENAW WHILE OTHER FZRA OCCURRED OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. MAINLY SNOW OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. WHAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER
IN THE WAKE OF THAT ARC OF HEAVIER PRECIP IS NOT MUCH. DRIZZLE AND
FZDZ HAS BEEN PATCHY/INTERMITTENT WITH DRYING IN BLYR AS SEEN BY
SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS 3-5F IN MOST AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIP...STARTING OFF AS RAIN...MOVING IN BY AFTN AS
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SFC LOW WILL
BE DOWN TO LOWER THAN 990MB. CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVY FOR ALL BUT
KEWEENAW AND FAR EAST EARLY.
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM YET THOUGH. TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TODAY IS STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHERE ENHANCED LIFT WOULD OCCUR IN THE MID LEVEL FGEN.
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS ALOFT COMING CLOSE
TO 0C...SO SNOW COULD BE PTYPE DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PORTIONS OF NCNTRL AND
WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW AND AT LEAST MINOR
ACCUMS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT DUE TO WARM
TEMPS AT THE SFC IN THE MID 30S AT LEAST...SNOW ACCUMS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TO A SLUSHY INCH OR SO. CAVEOT TO THAT
IS IF THIS SNOW FALLS AT VERY HIGH RATES WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT MOVE ACROSS...A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE QUITE QUICKLY. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL MOST EMPHATIC WITH
THIS IDEA...BUT DIFFER ON WHERE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF IS PLACED.
SUPPOSE IF EVERYTHING CAME TOGETHER IDEALLY /NAMELY ENOUGH COOLING
ALOFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIBBON OF PRECIP FORCED BY
INSTABILITY ALOFT/ A SHORT DURATION HEADLINE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SLUSHY SNOW COULD BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE FM THE KEWEENAW TO THE NCNTRL
CWA. WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING FOR DAYSHIFT TO KEEP EYE ON AS DAY
WEARS ON.
INTO TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE EAST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER DZ/FZDZ SCENARIO FOR A
WHILE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
WITH UPLSOPE WESTERLY WINDS. WHEN ADDITIONAL PRECIP OCCURS LATER
TONIGHT AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH COOLING OF AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN ANY ONE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER 1
INCH...THOUGH LINGERING FORCING MAY RESULT IN MORE SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THE FAR EAST CWA.
GIVEN SUCH A STRONG LOW CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...S-SE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL...STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...GUSTS 35-45 MPH
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING FOR THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A LOWER AMPLITUDE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
WRN N AMERICA LEADING TO A DEEPENING TROF OVER ERN N AMERICA. THE
MODEST PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HOWEVER WILL ONLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL 5H HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR LATE FEB.
BEGINNING SAT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF AND FAR E. EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...PCPN
AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS TROF DEEPENS AROUND HUDSON BAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
SLOWLY S THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE FCST AREA SUN...BUT IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL LATE SUN THAT THE AIR MASS BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -16C SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON AND INVERSION FALLING TO 4KFT...LES WILL BE
LIGHT. DGZ WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...SO
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUN NIGHT.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT LES WILL END MON AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA AND THEN DRIFTS E. IN THE AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES DIVE SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
AREA BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF WAVES IS POOR...SO NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. HOWEVER...ANY SYNOPTIC -SN SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORCING IS GENERALLY WEAK...AND AT THIS POINT...LES DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AS 850 CAA NOT STRONG BEHIND SHORTWAVES
(COLDEST MODEL HAS 8H TEMPS LOWERING TO -18C) AND FLOW GENERALLY
ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
RAIN AND SNOW MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS DROP TO IFR THIS AFTN AS STEADIER RAIN AND
SNOW ARRIVE. STEADIER RAIN/SNOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND EXPECT CIGS
TO RETURN TO MVFR AT IWD AND CMX...AND RISE TO VFR AT SAW. PLAN ON
IFR VSBY DURING THE STEADIER PRECIP THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS START DAY OUT GUSTY FM SSE AT SAW. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES AREA THIS AFTN...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND
COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG/GUSTY OVER 35 KTS AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRES AND LOW
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN SSE GALES OF 35-
40KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. GALE WARNING
CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH WINDS BRIEFLY AS THE LOW PASSES THIS
AFTN...STRONG W WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME
AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO MAINLY THE 15-25KT RANGE SAT THRU SUN MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT LATE SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF APPROACHES....WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AFTN THRU TUE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006-007-014-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
607 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AS VSBYS DROP TO IFR. LLWS WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING..WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ020-025-026-031>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ008-015>019-
021>024.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
539 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
...LULL IN PRECIP ATTM BUT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RETURNS THIS AFTN...
STRONG SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER DAKOTAS. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9C/KM
OVER SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE IN THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA. ATTM THOUGH IS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH MINIMAL DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF STRONG BAND OF WINTRY
MIX THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING. SEEMS THAT HEAVIEST FZRA
FELL OVER THE KEWEENAW WHILE OTHER FZRA OCCURRED OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. MAINLY SNOW OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. WHAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER
IN THE WAKE OF THAT ARC OF HEAVIER PRECIP IS NOT MUCH. DRIZZLE AND
FZDZ HAS BEEN PATCHY/INTERMITTENT WITH DRYING IN BLYR AS SEEN BY
SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS 3-5F IN MOST AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIP...STARTING OFF AS RAIN...MOVING IN BY AFTN AS
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SFC LOW WILL
BE DOWN TO LOWER THAN 990MB. CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVY FOR ALL BUT
KEWEENAW AND FAR EAST EARLY.
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM YET THOUGH. TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TODAY IS STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHERE ENHANCED LIFT WOULD OCCUR IN THE MID LEVEL FGEN.
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS ALOFT COMING CLOSE
TO 0C...SO SNOW COULD BE PTYPE DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PORTIONS OF NCNTRL AND
WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW AND AT LEAST MINOR
ACCUMS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT DUE TO WARM
TEMPS AT THE SFC IN THE MID 30S AT LEAST...SNOW ACCUMS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TO A SLUSHY INCH OR SO. CAVEOT TO THAT
IS IF THIS SNOW FALLS AT VERY HIGH RATES WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT MOVE ACROSS...A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE QUITE QUICKLY. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL MOST EMPHATIC WITH
THIS IDEA...BUT DIFFER ON WHERE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF IS PLACED.
SUPPOSE IF EVERYTHING CAME TOGETHER IDEALLY /NAMELY ENOUGH COOLING
ALOFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIBBON OF PRECIP FORCED BY
INSTABILITY ALOFT/ A SHORT DURATION HEADLINE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SLUSHY SNOW COULD BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE FM THE KEWEENAW TO THE NCNTRL
CWA. WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING FOR DAYSHIFT TO KEEP EYE ON AS DAY
WEARS ON.
INTO TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE EAST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER DZ/FZDZ SCENARIO FOR A
WHILE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
WITH UPLSOPE WESTERLY WINDS. WHEN ADDITIONAL PRECIP OCCURS LATER
TONIGHT AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH COOLING OF AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN ANY ONE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER 1
INCH...THOUGH LINGERING FORCING MAY RESULT IN MORE SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THE FAR EAST CWA.
GIVEN SUCH A STRONG LOW CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...S-SE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL...STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...GUSTS 35-45 MPH
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING FOR THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A LOWER AMPLITUDE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
WRN N AMERICA LEADING TO A DEEPENING TROF OVER ERN N AMERICA. THE
MODEST PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HOWEVER WILL ONLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL 5H HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR LATE FEB.
BEGINNING SAT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF AND FAR E. EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...PCPN
AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS TROF DEEPENS AROUND HUDSON BAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
SLOWLY S THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE FCST AREA SUN...BUT IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL LATE SUN THAT THE AIR MASS BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -16C SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON AND INVERSION FALLING TO 4KFT...LES WILL BE
LIGHT. DGZ WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...SO
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUN NIGHT.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT LES WILL END MON AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA AND THEN DRIFTS E. IN THE AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES DIVE SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
AREA BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF WAVES IS POOR...SO NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. HOWEVER...ANY SYNOPTIC -SN SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORCING IS GENERALLY WEAK...AND AT THIS POINT...LES DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AS 850 CAA NOT STRONG BEHIND SHORTWAVES
(COLDEST MODEL HAS 8H TEMPS LOWERING TO -18C) AND FLOW GENERALLY
ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
CIGS SHOULD STEADILY TREND FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. LOWEST
CIGS LATE TONIGHT WILL BE AT KSAW WITH UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR
VSBY...EXPECT MVFR VSBY . STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI
AFTERNOON AT IWD WITH THE INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AS WINDS VEER
TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE...IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT CMX AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRES AND LOW
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN SSE GALES OF 35-
40KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. GALE WARNING
CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH WINDS BRIEFLY AS THE LOW PASSES THIS
AFTN...STRONG W WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME
AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO MAINLY THE 15-25KT RANGE SAT THRU SUN MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT LATE SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF APPROACHES....WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AFTN THRU TUE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006-007-014-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS. ALL PRECIP
SHOULD BECOME PLAIN RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE BY AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LLWS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR ALL
NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU MIDDAY AS WELL...WITH GUSTY SE
SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ020-025-026-031>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ008-015>019-
021>024.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN...A LITTLE SNOW OUT TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TWIN CITIES INTO WI
THIS MORNING IS RACING ACROSS NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE ISALLOBARIC
HIGH MOVING ACROSS MN...WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST OF THE WINDS MOVE
EAST AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SPEEDS THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...SO HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY EARLY.
BESIDE THE STRONG WINDS PULLING EAST...TRAILING DEFORMATION PRECIP
IS QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS WRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNSET...THE
MPX AREA WILL BE DRY. EXPECT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS TRAILING VORT MAX OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON GOES ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT...KEEPING ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. WHAT THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL DO IS
SEND CLOUD COVER BACK ACROSS MN/WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
ON SATURDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN ANTICIPATED FOR YOUR
SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED...DID GO A FEW DEGREES LOWER WITH BOTH LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS AGAIN TOMORROW. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW MATCHES THE TREND SEEN WITH CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS...WHICH
CAME IN LOWER AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. BEYOND THIS CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH MILD TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND THE LIFT IS NOT VERY
GOOD...SO WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS DURING THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END
UP WITH NOTHING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER...HOWEVER...WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS
MN/WI. EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
30S THROUGH MID WEEK...PERHAPS WITH A DAY OR TWO HITTING 40 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON TUESDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCKED UP IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE
SOUTHERN CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. THAT BEING SAID THERE MIGHT BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD NEED TO MOVE CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTH
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA OF MN/WI. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THE EXTENDED WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIR PENETRATES. THE ECMWF IS MILD...THE GFS IS VERY
VERY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BEEN A ROUGH MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CIGS..RAIN...SOME SNOW IN CENTRAL MN...AND EVEN THUNDER FROM THE
TWIN CITIES OVER TO EAU. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR ALL THIS FUN PUSHES INTO WI...WE HAVE SEEN A MORE STEADY STATE
IN ATMO CONDITIONS DEVELOP...MAKING FOR A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS BEEN
DOING A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST HOUR...THE CLEARING HAS STARTED TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS ERN SODAK...SO STILL LOOKS GOOD TO SEE MAINLY
SKC SKIES EVERYWHERE BY THE TIME WE HIT 00Z. AFTER THAT...NEXT
CONCERN IS BATCH OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SASKATCHEWAN.
GFS/NAM/SREF ALL SHOW THESE CIGS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING AXN BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z AND EVENTUALLY EAU AROUND
15Z. LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW THEY WILL BE THIS FAR
SW...BUT ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS EXISTS TO BRING THEM BACK
FOR ALL BUT RWF AT THE END OF THE TAF.
KMSP...AS THINGS SETTLE DOWN...BEGINNING TO FEEL A BIT MORE
CONFIDENT IN CIG FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN
2K AND 5K FT AND COMPRESSION ISSUES FOR ARRIVING FLIGHTS...SO
ADDED A LLWS MENTION. FOR THE PERIOD WHERE LLWS IS MENTIONED...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE SHOW THE WORST CONDITIONS HAPPENING BETWEEN ABOUT
2Z AND 8Z. RETURN OF MVFR CIGS SAT MORNING IN THE LAMP IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/NAM/SREF...SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO BRING CIG
RESTRICTIONS BACK...WILL PROBABLY SEE VFR CIGS PRIOR TO 00Z
SUN...BUT WILL LET FUTURE TAFS TWEAK THAT TIMING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NNW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS LATE. WIND SW AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND W AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BIT OF A WILD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVERHEAD PROVIDING LIFT ABOVE OUR EML TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS
GOING. AMAZINGLY...WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER ERN
MN/WRN WI THIS MORNING...FREEZING LEVELS ARE UP OVER 8K FT...SO
NOT SEEING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO HAVE CUT BACK ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ON HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WE
MAY WISH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...REALITY IS THAT
BEHIND THIS FRONT PUSHING INTO WI...TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S...SO TRENDED HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY TOWARD THE
19.12 BIAS CORRECTED NAM. PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR THE COOLER TEMPS
IS THE SLOWER PROGRESSION AND MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
DEFORMATION PRECIP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. BESIDE THE
PRECIP...OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST WAY BACK INTO ERN SODAK AT
11AM...SO LESS SUN AND ASSOCIATED MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION IN FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...HAD TO INTRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMS OUT TOWARD AXN...WHERE
ATMO HAS COOLED ENOUGH ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP TO SWITCH
THINGS OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED UP
THERE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE
IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THE ONE THING
THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS THE WIDESPREAD OBS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS...BUT THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ZERO SNOWPACK AND AS A RESULT HAVE A MUCH LESS STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...THEY DID OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHICH
SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP ARE STARTING TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE
CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO
REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES.
VERY RARELY DOES MN AND WI MATCH THE WINDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UNLESS
A RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FEEL A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NEEDED. ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ABSENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REDUCE BACK DOWN A FEW DEGRESS FOR SATURDAY...AS
HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS
WAVE IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A 20-30 POP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS ILLUSTRATING THE NEED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION.
NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST STREAM OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES THAT
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH/EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BEEN A ROUGH MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CIGS..RAIN...SOME SNOW IN CENTRAL MN...AND EVEN THUNDER FROM THE
TWIN CITIES OVER TO EAU. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR ALL THIS FUN PUSHES INTO WI...WE HAVE SEEN A MORE STEADY STATE
IN ATMO CONDITIONS DEVELOP...MAKING FOR A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS BEEN
DOING A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST HOUR...THE CLEARING HAS STARTED TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS ERN SODAK...SO STILL LOOKS GOOD TO SEE MAINLY
SKC SKIES EVERYWHERE BY THE TIME WE HIT 00Z. AFTER THAT...NEXT
CONCERN IS BATCH OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SASKATCHEWAN.
GFS/NAM/SREF ALL SHOW THESE CIGS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING AXN BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z AND EVENTUALLY EAU AROUND
15Z. LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW THEY WILL BE THIS FAR
SW...BUT ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS EXISTS TO BRING THEM BACK
FOR ALL BUT RWF AT THE END OF THE TAF.
KMSP...AS THINGS SETTLE DOWN...BEGINNING TO FEEL A BIT MORE
CONFIDENT IN CIG FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN
2K AND 5K FT AND COMPRESSION ISSUES FOR ARRIVING FLIGHTS...SO
ADDED A LLWS MENTION. FOR THE PERIOD WHERE LLWS IS MENTIONED...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE SHOW THE WORST CONDITIONS HAPPENING BETWEEN ABOUT
2Z AND 8Z. RETURN OF MVFR CIGS SAT MORNING IN THE LAMP IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/NAM/SREF...SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO BRING CIG
RESTRICTIONS BACK...WILL PROBABLY SEE VFR CIGS PRIOR TO 00Z
SUN...BUT WILL LET FUTURE TAFS TWEAK THAT TIMING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NNW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS LATE. WIND SW AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND W AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026-028.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
065-067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BIT OF A WILD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVERHEAD PROVIDING LIFT ABOVE OUR EML TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS
GOING. AMAZINGLY...WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER ERN
MN/WRN WI THIS MORNING...FREEZING LEVELS ARE UP OVER 8K FT...SO
NOT SEEING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO HAVE CUT BACK ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ON HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WE
MAY WISH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...REALITY IS THAT
BEHIND THIS FRONT PUSHING INTO WI...TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S...SO TRENDED HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY TOWARD THE
19.12 BIAS CORRECTED NAM. PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR THE COOLER TEMPS
IS THE SLOWER PROGRESSION AND MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
DEFORMATION PRECIP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. BESIDE THE
PRECIP...OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST WAY BACK INTO ERN SODAK AT
11AM...SO LESS SUN AND ASSOCIATED MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION IN FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...HAD TO INTRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMS OUT TOWARD AXN...WHERE
ATMO HAS COOLED ENOUGH ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP TO SWITCH
THINGS OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED UP
THERE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE
IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THE ONE THING
THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS THE WIDESPREAD OBS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS...BUT THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ZERO SNOWPACK AND AS A RESULT HAVE A MUCH LESS STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...THEY DID OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHICH
SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP ARE STARTING TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE
CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO
REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES.
VERY RARELY DOES MN AND WI MATCH THE WINDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UNLESS
A RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FEEL A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NEEDED. ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ABSENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REDUCE BACK DOWN A FEW DEGRESS FOR SATURDAY...AS
HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS
WAVE IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A 20-30 POP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS ILLUSTRATING THE NEED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION.
NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST STREAM OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES THAT
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH/EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
AT THIS POINT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IT...BUT IT HAS NOT FORMED YET SO HAVE
SCALED BACK IN THE TAFS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KMSP...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP...SO WILL GO AGAINST FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND REMOVE THEM THIS MORNING SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THEY WILL FORM. WINDS ARE SLOWER TO SHIFT AS WELL...SO DELAYED
THEM IN THE TAF. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH -RA/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW AT 10G15KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026-028.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
065-067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
450 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE
IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THE ONE THING
THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS THE WIDESPREAD OBS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS...BUT THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ZERO SNOWPACK AND AS A RESULT HAVE A MUCH LESS STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...THEY DID OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHICH
SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP ARE STARTING TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE
CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO
REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES.
VERY RARELY DOES MN AND WI MATCH THE WINDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UNLESS
A RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FEEL A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NEEDED. ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ABSENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REDUCE BACK DOWN A FEW DEGRESS FOR SATURDAY...AS
HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS
WAVE IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A 20-30 POP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS ILLUSTRATING THE NEED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION.
NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST STREAM OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES THAT
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH/EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
AT THIS POINT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IT...BUT IT HAS NOT FORMED YET SO HAVE
SCALED BACK IN THE TAFS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KMSP...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP...SO WILL GO AGAINST FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND REMOVE THEM THIS MORNING SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THEY WILL FORM. WINDS ARE SLOWER TO SHIFT AS WELL...SO DELAYED
THEM IN THE TAF. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH -RA/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW AT 10G15KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ026-028.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
065-067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ076-077-084-085-
093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE
IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THE ONE THING
THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS THE WIDESPREAD OBS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS...BUT THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ZERO SNOWPACK AND AS A RESULT HAVE A MUCH LESS STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...THEY DID OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHICH
SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP ARE STARTING TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE
CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO
REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES.
VERY RARELY DOES MN AND WI MATCH THE WINDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UNLESS
A RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FEEL A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NEEDED. ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ABSENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REDUCE BACK DOWN A FEW DEGRESS FOR SATURDAY...AS
HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS
WAVE IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A 20-30 POP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS ILLUSTRATING THE NEED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION.
NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST STREAM OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES THAT
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH/EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
IFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING OFF A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...SO MOVED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 06Z ISSUANCE OF THE
TAFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...SO WIND SHEAR SEEMS WARRANTED AS WELL. EXPECT WESTERLY
WINDS BY MID DAY FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KMSP...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF KMSP...BUT THESE MAY
NOT MAKE IT TO KMSP UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH PRECIP SINCE HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST. IF CLOUDS DO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z...WITH WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH -RA/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW AT 10G15KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ026-028.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
065-067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ076-077-084-085-
093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1010 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER PLOTS SHOWED A LARGE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF...WHILE IN THE
LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THIS WAS PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL STRATUS WAS LIFTING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED ESP ACROSS THE DELTA REGION WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THOSE BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ESP IN THE
DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 70S AS TEMPS WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY SKY GRIDS, SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPS./17/
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH...DIMINISHING AFTER 20/00Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 20/06Z AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT JAN...HKS...MEI AND HBG WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BY 20/15Z./26/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
INTO WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY AND HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL GET
TO ROUGHLY THE I- 55 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER 8 OR 9 AM
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER EAST...WITH
THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER WESTERN ZONES SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING
NORTH AND BREAKING UP THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I- 55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MS THERE IS CURRENTLY LOCALLY DENSE
FOG FORMING AND WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT LIGHTER. THIS DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS AND THEREFORE NOT
WARRANTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COVERED IN THE
HWO).
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIFT BY MIDDAY. THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY WAS FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED...
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND MAXIMUMS WERE GENERALLY PLACED
NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT GETTING STARTED THIS MORNING WILL
BE MORE IN FULL SWING BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP IN THE MILD 50S.
ON SATURDAY INCOMING SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FLAT UPPER WAVE WILL SPREAD A LOT MORE HIGH TO MID LAYER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS
ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST (BUT STILL LOW) CHANCES OF
MEASUREMENT BEING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S. /BB/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STRETCH OF VERY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE TO COME TO AN END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WETTER AND COOLER
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. FOR SUNDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER BLEND OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW AND STRONG MIXING AND RECENT TRENDS OF
OVERACHIEVING WARMTH. A LARGE LOW-MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE PUSH OF A POLAR FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LEND TO MORE OF
AN ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL SCENARIO INITIALLY WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
ALONG/N OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR.
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SEND THE FRONT WELL INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 1.5 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY REGARDING THE FORECAST
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND AT LEAST TWO SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT NAEFS GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN INGREDIENTS...AND IT SUGGESTS THAT
UPSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE BEING
INTERCEPTED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS. THIS IS A LOT TO
CONSIDER SO FAR OUT IN TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. AS WE GO INTO
MID WEEK...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 55 74 58 / 0 1 7 12
MERIDIAN 75 53 74 56 / 0 1 10 9
VICKSBURG 78 56 76 59 / 0 3 7 12
HATTIESBURG 77 55 74 56 / 0 2 11 7
NATCHEZ 77 56 76 60 / 0 2 8 10
GREENVILLE 72 57 71 59 / 0 9 9 18
GREENWOOD 75 57 72 59 / 0 7 8 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/26/BB/EC/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
820 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...THE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO
REFLECT THIS. THE REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
INTO WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY AND HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL GET
TO ROUGHLY THE I- 55 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER 8 OR 9 AM
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER EAST...WITH
THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER WESTERN ZONES SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING
NORTH AND BREAKING UP THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I- 55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MS THERE IS CURRENTLY LOCALLY DENSE
FOG FORMING AND WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT LIGHTER. THIS DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS AND THEREFORE NOT
WARRANTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COVERED IN THE
HWO).
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIFT BY MIDDAY. THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY WAS FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED...
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND MAXIMUMS WERE GENERALLY PLACED
NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT GETTING STARTED THIS MORNING WILL
BE MORE IN FULL SWING BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP IN THE MILD 50S.
ON SATURDAY INCOMING SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FLAT UPPER WAVE WILL SPREAD A LOT MORE HIGH TO MID LAYER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS
ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST (BUT STILL LOW) CHANCES OF
MEASUREMENT BEING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S. /BB/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STRETCH OF VERY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE TO COME TO AN END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WETTER AND COOLER
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. FOR SUNDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER BLEND OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW AND STRONG MIXING AND RECENT TRENDS OF
OVERACHIEVING WARMTH. A LARGE LOW-MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE PUSH OF A POLAR FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LEND TO MORE OF
AN ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL SCENARIO INITIALLY WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
ALONG/N OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR.
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SEND THE FRONT WELL INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 1.5 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY REGARDING THE FORECAST
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND AT LEAST TWO SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT NAEFS GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN INGREDIENTS...AND IT SUGGESTS THAT
UPSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE BEING
INTERCEPTED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS. THIS IS A LOT TO
CONSIDER SO FAR OUT IN TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. AS WE GO INTO
MID WEEK...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT GLH/GWO/HKS/HEZ AND PERHAPS JAN
THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 9 TO 10 AM...ALTHOUGH IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM AROUND HBG/PIB WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF ALSO AFFECTING JAN/HKS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LAST AROUND GLH...ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE
DEVOID OF ANY ISSUES ASIDE FROM SOUTH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY. EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT MORE ISSUES FROM LOW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH MVFR
FLIGHT CATS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN IFR. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 55 74 58 / 0 1 7 12
MERIDIAN 75 53 74 56 / 0 1 10 9
VICKSBURG 78 56 76 59 / 0 3 7 12
HATTIESBURG 77 55 74 56 / 0 2 11 7
NATCHEZ 77 56 76 60 / 0 2 8 10
GREENVILLE 72 57 71 59 / 0 9 9 18
GREENWOOD 75 57 72 59 / 0 7 8 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/EC/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
458 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
INTO WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY AND HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL GET
TO ROUGHLY THE I- 55 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER 8 OR 9 AM
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER EAST...WITH
THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER WESTERN ZONES SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING
NORTH AND BREAKING UP THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I- 55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MS THERE IS CURRENTLY LOCALLY DENSE
FOG FORMING AND WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT LIGHTER. THIS DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS AND THEREFORE NOT
WARRANTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COVERED IN THE
HWO).
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIFT BY MIDDAY. THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY WAS FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED...
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND MAXIMUMS WERE GENERALLY PLACED
NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT GETTING STARTED THIS MORNING WILL
BE MORE IN FULL SWING BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP IN THE MILD 50S.
ON SATURDAY INCOMING SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FLAT UPPER WAVE WILL SPREAD A LOT MORE HIGH TO MID LAYER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS
ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST (BUT STILL LOW) CHANCES OF
MEASUREMENT BEING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S. /BB/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STRETCH OF VERY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE TO COME TO AN END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WETTER AND COOLER
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. FOR SUNDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER BLEND OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW AND STRONG MIXING AND RECENT TRENDS OF
OVERACHIEVING WARMTH. A LARGE LOW-MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE PUSH OF A POLAR FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LEND TO MORE OF
AN ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL SCENARIO INITIALLY WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
ALONG/N OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR.
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SEND THE FRONT WELL INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 1.5 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY REGARDING THE FORECAST
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND AT LEAST TWO SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT NAEFS GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN INGREDIENTS...AND IT SUGGESTS THAT
UPSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE BEING
INTERCEPTED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS. THIS IS A LOT TO
CONSIDER SO FAR OUT IN TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. AS WE GO INTO
MID WEEK...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT GLH/GWO/HKS/HEZ AND PERHAPS JAN
THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 9 TO 10 AM...ALTHOUGH IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM AROUND HBG/PIB WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF ALSO AFFECTING JAN/HKS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LAST AROUND GLH...ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE
DEVOID OF ANY ISSUES ASIDE FROM SOUTH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY. EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT MORE ISSUES FROM LOW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH MVFR
FLIGHT CATS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN IFR. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 55 74 58 / 0 1 7 12
MERIDIAN 75 53 74 56 / 0 1 10 9
VICKSBURG 78 56 76 59 / 0 3 7 12
HATTIESBURG 77 55 74 56 / 0 2 11 7
NATCHEZ 77 56 76 60 / 0 2 8 10
GREENVILLE 72 57 71 59 / 0 9 9 18
GREENWOOD 75 57 72 59 / 0 7 8 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/EC/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
856 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 855 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue at this hour,
particularly to the south and east of where latest SPC
mesoanalysis are still showing MUCAPES over 500 J/kg and
effective shears of >35kts. There will still may be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms farther back west over central
Missouri ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Best chance
for any severe storms will be in the aforementioned areas where
there is the most instability and shear through the evening hours.
Still looks like rain chances will get pushed into the far
southeastern counties by morning as the shortwave pushes the
frontal boundary southeast through the area.
(Tonight)
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
(Rest of Forecast)
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the far
southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the
far southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 443 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Scattered showers and storms will impact COU and the St Louis
metro area this evening. This activity is just ahead of a weak
surface wave along the front which extends through COU and STL.
Most of this activity will shift e-se of COU later this evening
and for the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight. The low
level cloudiness should advect out of COU by late tonight and out
of the St Louis metro area by early morning. The surface wind will
become n-nely in COU and the St Louis metro area later this
evening as it already has in UIN north of the front.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers and storms will move through
STL this evening. Most of this activity should shift e-se of STL
around midnight with lingering low level cloudiness. The surface
wind will increase from a nly direction later this evening.
N-nwly surface winds will continue Sunday and Sunday evening as a
surface ridge builds southward into the area behind the front.
Another batch of low level clouds may advect into the area late
Sunday afternoon and evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
551 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the
far southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 443 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Scattered showers and storms will impact COU and the St Louis
metro area this evening. This activity is just ahead of a weak
surface wave along the front which extends through COU and STL.
Most of this activity will shift e-se of COU later this evening
and for the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight. The low
level cloudiness should advect out of COU by late tonight and out
of the St Louis metro area by early morning. The surface wind will
become n-nely in COU and the St Louis metro area later this
evening as it already has in UIN north of the front.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers and storms will move through
STL this evening. Most of this activity should shift e-se of STL
around midnight with lingering low level cloudiness. The surface
wind will increase from a nly direction later this evening.
N-nwly surface winds will continue Sunday and Sunday evening as a
surface ridge builds southward into the area behind the front.
Another batch of low level clouds may advect into the area late
Sunday afternoon and evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
531 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Record breaking warmth across the region this afternoon, with a
pretty tight moisture gradient roughly running E-W along interstate
70. South of this line temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with dewpoints in the 50s. North of this boundary, temperatures
are warm, in the 60s to 70s, but dewpoints are in the 30s. So far as
of the writing of this discussion, KMCI reached 74 degrees, which
breaks the record of 70 degrees, set in 2011. Later today, along the
aforementioned boundary, there could be a few showers and
thunderstorms forming. The best chance for these showers will be
across southern and central Missouri, although there could be a few
isolated weak cells as far north as I-70. There will likely be no
surface based storms, as low level lapse rates are not very steep.
However, there will be steep enough lapse rates in the mid levels to
muster 500 to 1000 J/kg of MU Cape. 0 to 6 km shear indicates 30 to
40 kts of deep layer shear, which could combine with the elevated
instability to bring a strong storm or two. HRRR trends have
indicated a more southern and eastern slide in the area storms are
expected to form. Expect these storms to grow in coverage through
the evening and move off into eastern Missouri through the overnight
hours.
Thereafter, for the rest of the weekend and into next week, expect
dry conditions with cooler temperatures as a cooler air mass slides
into the area. Even with cooler temperatures, still anticipating
highs to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal late February highs
through the week. By mid week, there will likely be a strong winter
storm moving through the southern plains. Right now it looks like
this storm will glide south of here and go across Arkansas and
Tennessee. Should this storm slide a little north we could see it
impact portions of this forecast area, but even with some movement
north it will likely be too warm to get any snow out of it. For now
it appears there could be some light rain along its far northern
periphery mid week. Expect above normal temps and dry conditions to
persist through the late part of the week and into early next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR conditions largely expected across area terminals through the
upcoming fcst cycle. Weak boundary sinking south across the northern
KC Metro should pass through MCI within the next half hour...which
should result in a wind shift to the northeast.
Meanwhile...convection associated with this boundary will likely stay
south and east of area terminals this evening. NAM model suggests
developing VSBY restrictions in the early morning hrs...however
considering how dry it has been and the sizable temp dewpoint
spreads...am included to follow the less pessimistic GFS guidance
for this issuance. In any event...will monitor trends and make
adjustments with the 06z package if necessary. Winds through the
period should remain from the northeast overnight...before shifting
to the northwest after daybreak.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
544 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOWER AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY. THIS MORNINGS UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE HAD A PWAT OF 0.21 INCHES. MODELS DO
MOISTEN THE MID AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE SOME THIS EVENING...AND WITH
THE DECENT LIFT...HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AREA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN. RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN WITHIN THIS BAND AT
ONEILL THE SOUNDING IS ABOVE FREEZING UP THROUGH 850MB...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAWN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES BY SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WARMUP IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING THROUGH COLORADO INTO KANSAS. STILL KEPT
NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF FA MONDAY NIGHT AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING TO PSBL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BACK TO RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS PSBL TUESDAY.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WRN NEBRASKA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER AIR FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE COLDER AIR
COULD CAUSE AN ADJUSTMENT TO COLDER HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS WARMER AIR
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES. BRIEF WARMUPS BETWEEN PASSING COLD FRONTS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WILL TRACK EAST THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE THREAT FRO SHOWERS WILL BE
GREATEST OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...IMPACTING THE KVTN TERMINAL
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH MID EVENING. CIGS
WITH THE SHOWERS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 4000 FT AGL. EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 20000 FT AGL
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1108 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE PV1.5 ANOMALY IS STILL ACROSS NCNTL NEB AND EXTENDS BACK INTO
SHERIDAN COUNTY. THE 12Z KLBF UA SOUNDING IS CARRYING 65 KT WINDS
AT 800 MB WHICH THE RAP SHOWS MIXING DOWN BETWEEN 14Z-17Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD RELAX THEREAFTER ACCORDING TO THE RAP
MODEL.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING IS ON
TRACK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH OR NEAR HIGH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COALESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING LESS THAN 12KT AFTER 00Z. WIND IS THEN
LIKELY TO INCREASE AND BECOME 280-320 AT 12-14KT LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE PV1.5 ANOMALY IS STILL ACROSS NCNTL NEB AND EXTENDS BACK INTO
SHERIDAN COUNTY. THE 12Z KLBF UA SOUNDING IS CARRYING 65 KT WINDS
AT 800 MB WHICH THE RAP SHOWS MIXING DOWN BETWEEN 14Z-17Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD RELAX THEREAFTER ACCORDING TO THE RAP
MODEL.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING IS ON
TRACK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH OR NEAR HIGH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COLESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE MORNING KLBF SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS...NEAR 65 KT AROUND
800MB WHICH COULD MIX DOWN ANYTIME AFTER SUNRISE. THUS THE PREVAILING
WIND FORECAST IS 29015G25KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30035G50KT UNTIL 18Z.
THIS FORECAST IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE WINDS ALOFT.
VFR AND LESS ERRATIC WIND BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED 18Z-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
531 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COLESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE MORNING KLBF SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS...NEAR 65 KT AROUND
800MB WHICH COULD MIX DOWN ANYTIME AFTER SUNRISE. THUS THE PREVAILING
WIND FORECAST IS 29015G25KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30035G50KT UNTIL 18Z.
THIS FORECAST IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE WINDS ALOFT.
VFR AND LESS ERRATIC WIND BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED 18Z-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COLESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FT AGL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000
FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND
MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN FRIDAY
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS...THEN INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
326 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COLESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FIRE WEATHER...THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FT AGL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000
FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND
MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN FRIDAY
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS...THEN INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO ALL COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST
AREA FOR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OBSERVATIONS OUT WEST ARE
SOLIDLY INTO THE WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY AND HAVE HIT HIGH WIND
WARNING NUMBERS IN PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW. 02Z
HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL BRINGS A 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OF UP TO
9 MB INTO ERN NE AND SWRN IA 09Z TO 13Z...WITH HIGHEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY NOT LAST VERY
LONG AT ANY GIVEN POINT. WINDS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE CONSIDERABLY
AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH NV/UT HAS EXHIBITED SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
WHICH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY BY 12Z/FRI. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW DEEPENING OVER SERN MT WILL DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...OUR CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...A SUBSTANTIAL
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE-RISE
COMPONENT WILL ENCOURAGE THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG WINDS
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 50-60+ KT WINDS DESCENDING TO AS LOW AS .5 KM AGL WITH
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING HOW THE STABILITY OF THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER --ARISING FROM THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY--
AFFECTS THE TRANSLATION OF THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND. MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS TO 20-25
KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN NEB. THE
INCORPORATION OF CURRENT SNOW COVER INTO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION
AND THE NUMERIC HANDLING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION CALLS INTO
QUESTION THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. NOT THAT THEY ARE WRONG...ITS
JUST THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS AT PLAY THAT WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NRN PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM
19/06Z-19/18Z WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABLY OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
WILL EXIST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW (FRI)...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
COLD ADVECTION...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW VALUES TO RISE INTO THE 60S. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES.
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SIMILAR...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY...USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE PRIMARY BELT OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...HOWEVER ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AT THE ONSET OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE PACIFIC NW
TO THE GULF COAST IN THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WE WILL RESIDE
TO THE WEST OF A COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WHICH WILL PLUNGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A SMALL CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ON
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH AN
OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
FOG AT KOFK SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY STRONG...RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH
GUSTS LIKELY OVER 30 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS FOR AT LEAST
A FEW HOURS. ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF KOFK OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-068-
090>093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
210 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW ENHANCING WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. UPGRADED ADVISORY TO HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
NEW MODEL DATA (NAM/GFS) NOW SHOW BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL WITH BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL LACK SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
FROM THESE TOW MODELS. THE 15Z RAP SHORT RANGE MODEL IS THE ONLY
ONE THAT CONSISTENTLY GIVES STRONG WINDS. BELIEVE THE RAP MUCH
BETTER AS SURFACE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND 20 TO 30 CENTRAL AS OF 11 AM CST. SO CURRENT
ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. WILL UP MAX TEMPS TODAY TO
MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE RECORD OF 56 AT
BISMARCK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WINDS TODAY. INITIAL PRESSURE RISE CAME
THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND GENERATED GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE NOT SEEN NEW
MODEL DATA YET BUT THE 06Z NAM SHOWS THE GRADIENT WINDS PICKING
UP VERY WELL BUT IN A REGION OF NEUTRAL OR EVEN WARM ADVECTION.
THE NEXT PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
RETURN OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS ADDED MIXING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MAKE FOR A BREEZY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME UNTIL NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WHERE IT APPEARS MIXING WILL BE BETTER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS HAS MADE IT THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKED ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER CURRENTLY OVER WCNTRL MN JUST EAST OF SISSETON SD.
DENSE FOG HAS ABATED OVER EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
A FEW LOCALES AROUND A MILE YET FROM RUGBY TO ROLLA. EXPECT THESE
TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WERE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA. WILL
EXTEND THE SPS FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND FOG JUST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. AS FAR AS WINDS...WE ARE STILL GUSTING A BIT OVER THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT MOSTLY IN A LULL THIS MORNING UNTIL WE SEE THE
MIXING LAYER INCREASE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...MOST LIKELY BY
AROUND MID MORNING WEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/W TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW GENERATING SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS
WERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE 68KTS WAS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
ND/SD BORDER. LESSER WINDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA BUT STILL HAD A FEW
AT 45KTS UP TO 52KTS. WINDS LAST AN HOUR MAYBE TWO THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE BUBBLE CONTINUES EASTWARD. LEFT WIND HEADLINES
THIS MORNING AS IS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY (MORE
ON THAT BELOW).
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FREEZING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SPC FOR THIS AS IS FOR NOW AS DO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS THE PRESSURE SURGE RAMPS UP THE WINDS OVER
MY EAST NOW THROUGH 12Z. HAVE OBSERVED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
OVER LOGAN...STUTSMAN...AND BARNES COUNTY LAST HOUR OR SO WITH
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW BRIEF UPDRAFTS.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MY SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THIS ROUND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
WITH THE SFC LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SK/MB...LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. MIXING LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW WITH NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SO WE WILL LIKELY NOT TAP INTO THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MUCH. STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER
GUSTS SO WILL KEEP WIND HEADLINES GOING TODAY AND LET THE DAY CREW
ADJUST AS NEEDED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CAA DOES
MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING S/WV. SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR POSSIBLE SNOW IS FORECAST NORTH TODAY WITH THE WAVE AS
WELL...AND THIS TOO MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT BUT CONTINUED BREEZY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP THAT MOVES INTO THE
WEST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AND UNTIL ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENS UP. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
IS MINIMAL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALSO...WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PUT HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS (0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES) SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FROM AROUND CROSBY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
A WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. EACH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SOME WINDS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM SEASONABLE
NORTHEAST TO MILD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 30 TO
45KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50KTS AT KDIK. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING IS THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONG WINDS FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS KISN-KMOT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA DID RECEIVE PRECIPITATION EARLIER TONIGHT SO
AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON HEADLINES. NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING
BELOW THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY AS WELL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
009>011-019>021-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1121 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
NEW MODEL DATA (NAM/GFS) NOW SHOW BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL WITH BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL LACK SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
FROM THESE TOW MODELS. THE 15Z RAP SHORT RANGE MODEL IS THE ONLY
ONE THAT CONSISTENTLY GIVES STRONG WINDS. BELIEVE THE RAP MUCH
BETTER AS SURFACE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND 20 TO 30 CENTRAL AS OF 11 AM CST. SO CURRENT
ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. WILL UP MAX TEMPS TODAY TO
MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE RECORD OF 56 AT
BISMARCK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WINDS TODAY. INITIAL PRESSURE RISE CAME
THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND GENERATED GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE NOT SEEN NEW
MODEL DATA YET BUT THE 06Z NAM SHOWS THE GRADIENT WINDS PICKING
UP VERY WELL BUT IN A REGION OF NEUTRAL OR EVEN WARM ADVECTION.
THE NEXT PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
RETURN OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS ADDED MIXING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MAKE FOR A BREEZY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME UNTIL NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WHERE IT APPEARS MIXING WILL BE BETTER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS HAS MADE IT THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKED ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER CURRENTLY OVER WCNTRL MN JUST EAST OF SISSETON SD.
DENSE FOG HAS ABATED OVER EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
A FEW LOCALES AROUND A MILE YET FROM RUGBY TO ROLLA. EXPECT THESE
TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WERE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA. WILL
EXTEND THE SPS FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND FOG JUST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. AS FAR AS WINDS...WE ARE STILL GUSTING A BIT OVER THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT MOSTLY IN A LULL THIS MORNING UNTIL WE SEE THE
MIXING LAYER INCREASE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...MOST LIKELY BY
AROUND MID MORNING WEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/W TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW GENERATING SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS
WERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE 68KTS WAS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
ND/SD BORDER. LESSER WINDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA BUT STILL HAD A FEW
AT 45KTS UP TO 52KTS. WINDS LAST AN HOUR MAYBE TWO THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE BUBBLE CONTINUES EASTWARD. LEFT WIND HEADLINES
THIS MORNING AS IS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY (MORE
ON THAT BELOW).
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FREEZING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SPC FOR THIS AS IS FOR NOW AS DO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS THE PRESSURE SURGE RAMPS UP THE WINDS OVER
MY EAST NOW THROUGH 12Z. HAVE OBSERVED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
OVER LOGAN...STUTSMAN...AND BARNES COUNTY LAST HOUR OR SO WITH
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW BRIEF UPDRAFTS.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MY SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THIS ROUND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
WITH THE SFC LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SK/MB...LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. MIXING LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW WITH NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SO WE WILL LIKELY NOT TAP INTO THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MUCH. STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER
GUSTS SO WILL KEEP WIND HEADLINES GOING TODAY AND LET THE DAY CREW
ADJUST AS NEEDED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CAA DOES
MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING S/WV. SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR POSSIBLE SNOW IS FORECAST NORTH TODAY WITH THE WAVE AS
WELL...AND THIS TOO MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT BUT CONTINUED BREEZY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP THAT MOVES INTO THE
WEST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AND UNTIL ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENS UP. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
IS MINIMAL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALSO...WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PUT HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS (0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES) SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FROM AROUND CROSBY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
A WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. EACH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SOME WINDS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM SEASONABLE
NORTHEAST TO MILD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 30 TO
45KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50KTS AT KDIK. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING IS THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONG WINDS FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING SCATTEREDSHOWERS
AND LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS KISN-KMOT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA DID RECEIVE PRECIPITATION EARLIER TONIGHT SO
AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON HEADLINES. NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING
BELOW THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY AS WELL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>037-041-042-045>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-043-
044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
140 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER...VERY UN-FEBRUARY-LIKE WITH SHOWERS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WINTRY MIX EAST...GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING WEST INTO CENTRAL...AND WIDESPREAD FOG CENTRAL AND
EAST. WILL MAINTAIN ALL HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.
FOR THE DENSE FOG: LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY NORTH CENTRAL
CONTINUE TO REPORT VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE. AS WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...VIS SHOULD IMPROVE NOW
THROUGH 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
INITIAL WIND SURGE IS SEEING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60KTS IN BUFFALO TO
JUST UNDER 50KTS IN SOUTHWEST ND. THIS WIND SURGE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE PRESSURE RISE
BUBBLE...WITH WINDS BEHIND DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT. STILL EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HAD REPORTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
OBS ALONG THE WESTERN BASIN OF DEVILS LAKE RIGHT AT FREEZING BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW AS STILL EXPECT THESE
TEMPS TO RISE.
MOST SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH LESSER CHANCES NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF RETURNS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS FOCUS
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. ALSO EXPANDED FOG
FARTHER WEST INTO STARK COUNTY BASED ON OBS...WHICH SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK.
MAINLY BLENDED TO CURRENT OBS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS OVER WESTERN
ND...BUT NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A DYNAMIC AND SPRING-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DENSE FOG AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 986 MB SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S F BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION ALOFT THANKS
TO ANOMALOUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARMTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. VISIBILITIES FROM
NEAR NEW SALEM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS
OF MID AFTERNOON ARE STILL BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS...AND WITH
THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND CONSISTENT HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR MODEL RUNS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ND WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 06 UTC...EXCEPT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND WHERE WE RAN IT UNTIL 12 UTC. WE ACTUALLY EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FOLLOWS SUITE AND
INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDENCE.
WE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TYPE OR AREAL EXTENT OF WIND HEADLINES
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADJUST THE START TIMES SUCH
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ND START AT 03 UTC TONIGHT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND STARTS BETWEEN 06 AND 08 UTC.
THAT MOVE WAS BASED ON INITIAL PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN EXPANSION OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NEEDED IF
ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVERCOMES NOCTURNAL STABILIZING EFFECTS AS
RECENT RAP ITERATIONS HAVE SHOWN 8-10 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG AREA-WIDE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE 12 UTC GFS WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAN
THE 12 UTC NAM AND SUGGESTS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AGAIN MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND TO
THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THAT YET AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY ADIABATIC.
WE DO EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE STILL CARRYING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS FROM THAT IS LOW GIVEN A RATHER NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ROADS TO BE CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE 32 F IN MANY AREAS.
FINALLY...THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
YIELD SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST ND...AS NOTED
IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED.
AFTER SUNDAY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS AND VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. MOST LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND EAST ARE IN LIFR/IFR
CATEGORIES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTY NORTH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST FROM 30-45 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
IF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH TONIGHT AND THE WFAS...NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING ENDS UP
IN THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST RELEASE. THE AREA OF PRIMARY
CONCERN IS ACROSS SLOPE...BOWMAN...AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017>020-031>035-041-042-045-046.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-010>013-021>023-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ036-037-047-048-
050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-043-
044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1009 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF RETURNS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS FOCUS
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. ALSO EXPANDED FOG
FARTHER WEST INTO STARK COUNTY BASED ON OBS...WHICH SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK.
MAINLY BLENDED TO CURRENT OBS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS OVER WESTERN
ND...BUT NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A DYNAMIC AND SPRING-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DENSE FOG AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 986 MB SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S F BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION ALOFT THANKS
TO ANOMALOUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARMTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. VISIBILITIES FROM
NEAR NEW SALEM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS
OF MID AFTERNOON ARE STILL BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS...AND WITH
THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND CONSISTENT HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR MODEL RUNS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ND WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 06 UTC...EXCEPT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND WHERE WE RAN IT UNTIL 12 UTC. WE ACTUALLY EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FOLLOWS SUITE AND
INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDENCE.
WE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TYPE OR AREAL EXTENT OF WIND HEADLINES
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADJUST THE START TIMES SUCH
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ND START AT 03 UTC TONIGHT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND STARTS BETWEEN 06 AND 08 UTC.
THAT MOVE WAS BASED ON INITIAL PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN EXPANSION OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NEEDED IF
ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVERCOMES NOCTURNAL STABILIZING EFFECTS AS
RECENT RAP ITERATIONS HAVE SHOWN 8-10 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG AREA-WIDE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE 12 UTC GFS WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAN
THE 12 UTC NAM AND SUGGESTS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AGAIN MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND TO
THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THAT YET AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY ADIABATIC.
WE DO EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE STILL CARRYING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS FROM THAT IS LOW GIVEN A RATHER NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ROADS TO BE CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE 32 F IN MANY AREAS.
FINALLY...THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
YIELD SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST ND...AS NOTED
IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED.
AFTER SUNDAY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 0656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS AND VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. MOST LOCATIONS CURRENTLY ARE IN LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH
EXCEPTION OF KDIK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO DROP TO LIFR THIS
EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST FROM 30-45 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
IF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH TONIGHT AND THE WFAS...NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING ENDS UP
IN THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST RELEASE. THE AREA OF PRIMARY
CONCERN IS ACROSS SLOPE...BOWMAN...AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-019-020-034-035-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ019-020-
034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017-018-
031>033-041.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
021>023.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
010>013-021>023-025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ036-037-047-
048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. FIRST ARE THE WINDS.
CURRENT WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NW AND NC OHIO
AS WELL AS ERIE PA. SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE PEAK
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING THIS EVENING. CURRENT
ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 9PM. I BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY A
FEW HOURS BEFORE 9PM BUT I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY END
TIME ALONE. THE MODELS SHOWS A WELL MIXED LAYER UNTIL ~ 00Z. THE
12Z MODEL RUN SHOWS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THAT AREA AND I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE IT. I WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AFTER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. A SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT I DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FOR SATURDAY. THE NAM BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN THE GFS...UP TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. I WILL SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAV GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND TRACK
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS THE DRIEST OF THE TWO MODELS AND HAS
VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS WET
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH CHANCE
POPS OVER THE THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. I AM GOING TO START TRENDING
THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION BUT I WILL NOT TOTALLY
REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME AS THE NAM REMAINS
WET.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY INTO TUE MORNING BUT BY LATE TUE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN OR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TOO DEEP TO NOT CAUSE SNOW TO GET
PULLED NNW OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THU AND FRI. THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE SMALLER FEATURES WHICH CREATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT IN GENERAL THE MODELS DO SHOW THE POLAR
VORTEX SETTING UP CAMP AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE MONTH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SHIFT BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THU ON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT
WHILE VEERING TO SW. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT ERI AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU AND POSSIBLY PRODUCES SOME SHRA.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR LIKELY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THEN WIDESPREAD NON
VFR POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL THINK THE WARM AIR TEMPS RELATIVE TO LAKE ERIE`S ICY
WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THRU SAT AS A
COLD FRONT CAUSES WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THRU THE LAKE THEN PICK BACK UP A LITTLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AFTER A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY AND WINDS LINE UP OUT OF THE
NORTH. WINDS VEER TO NE FOR TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH SHIFTS INTO MAINE. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE GULF
AND HEAD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY WED WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS THE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-
017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST. WIND ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED EAST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSISTENT ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS
REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES/ERIE PA.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE
FORECAST TODAY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED NW OHIO AND ERIE
COUNTY PA. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN ERIE COUNTY PA WILL BE ENHANCED BY
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CITY OF ERIE WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT WINDS THROUGH 5K FEET
ARE NOT AS UNI-DIRECTIONAL AS WE USUALLY SEE BUT APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH MOMENTUM WITH THE DOWNSLOPING TO STILL GET THE HIGHER GUSTS.
FOR NW OHIO...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH THE WINDS BUT EVEN THE NAM
SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH. THE GUSTS ARE HARDER TO
DETERMINE IN NW OHIO WITH A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 500 FEET THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO 1000 FEET OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON. A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT THE INVERSION SHOULD
PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. IT DOES SEEM WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES SO INCLUDED ALL COUNTIES WEST
OF A ERIE/HURON/ASHLAND/KNOX LINE IN THE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9AM-9PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE OTHER INTERESTING CONSIDERATION IN THE
FORECAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER 50S
OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS THE AIRMASS THAT
WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. THE SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT WARMING TO SOME EXTENT IN THE EAST
TODAY BUT DO EXPECT TO START EATING AWAY AT THAT SNOWPACK...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
DESPITE INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING...IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ARRIVE AND JUST HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY
IN THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. WENT NEAR THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT
WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES(EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY IN THE FAR EAST) SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. WENT CLOSE
TO THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH FAIRLY GOOD MIXING
EXPECTED.
A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN OHIO SO POPS REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE GULF STATES WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE EAST COAST. THIS SOLUTION IS GETTING MORE TRACTION. BUT A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...AND WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED HAVE REMOVED
THE PRECIP MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT BEGIN TO
DROP BACK SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BETWEEN A BIT OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING UP THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...FOCUSED STILL ON THE
EAST. BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30
TO 40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT WHILE VEERING TO SW. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOUD STAY
MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT ERI AROUND
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCES SOME SHRA.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR LIKELY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THEN WIDESPREAD NON
VFR POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WANT TO HUG THE EAST COAST TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
AVERAGE 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...BRINGING WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE ABLE
TO REACH UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL
THINKING UNDER GALES WITH A STABLE MARINE LAYER. WINDS DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COME AROUND TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-
017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER
AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW COULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR WET SNOW IN THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY...PRECEDING A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FANTASTIC...THOUGH FLEETING PINKISH SUNRISE NOTED HERE IN
CENTRAL PENN AROUND 1145Z. A THICKENING CIRRUS/ALTO STRATUS /AND
SOME NS ACROSS NWRN PENN/ WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY. A FEW NORTH/SOUTH STRIPES OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PENN WHERE SWRLY ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS MAXIMIZED AT THE NOSE OF A 70 KT JET AT 850 MB ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NRN PENN THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THROUGH
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES /OR SLEET PELLETS/ MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND FORM THE MID CLOUD DECK AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
8H BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT NE OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BRIGHTENING A BIT. DESPITE
RAPID WARMING ALOFT...THE ACTUAL SFC WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA TODAY WITH MCLDY SKIES SLOWING THE WARMUP. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS....TO THE MID 30S OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
UPPER 30S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES
TO SCENT QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF A
50 TO 60 KT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UVVEL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN TONIGHT.
COLDEST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR
SE...WHERE SOME SNOW COVER REMAINS. ACROSS THE NE...THERE IS LESS
SNOW COVER...AND THE P-GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.
FOR SAT...LEFT MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR
THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A
SW BREEZE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES.
BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW
FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD TEMPS SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK.
HIGHS SAT WILL BE IN THE U40S NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEAN SFC-800 MB FLOW SLOWLY VEERS AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO WNW
BY SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A WEAK CFRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE.
COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK CFRONT DRIFTS TO NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE AND CLOUDS
THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE. EMPLOYING A CONSENSUS...ALL-MODEL
BLEND TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL DEG F IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...POPS WERE INCREASED BY 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE MAIN
AXIS OF PRECIP SHIFTED SOUTH BY NEARLY 100 KM...BASED ON 00Z
U.S./EC AND ENS TRENDS.
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WET SNOW AND UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM...WHILE
925-850 MB WET BULD TEMPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-76
CORRIDOR SUGGEST RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN...OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAIN/WET SNOW - CREATED
BY THE STRONG SOUTHERN GFS OUTLIER...THAT ONLY BRUSHES THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF PENN WITH SOME LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND HEADS UP ALONG...OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACT DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY - MID WEEK PERIOD WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW NRN AND
SRN STREAM ENERGY PHASES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FCST OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED...WITH CHC POPS FURTHER NW.
THERE/S STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE 00/06Z OPER MODELS AND ENS
FCST SYSTEMS BY MID WEEK. CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A COMBINATION OF
CURRENT SUPERBLEND AND PRIOR DATA TO ARRIVE AT THE GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEATHER FEATURES AND QPF. THE RAIN...SNOW
LINE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE CWA...AS WAS THE CASE ON
THIS LAST EVENT. ANYWAY...THIS IS STILL A DAY 5-6 FCST AND A LOT
WILL CHANGE BEFORE THE STORM SHOWS ITS TRUE COLORS AND WE CAN BE
CONFIDENT IN A MORE DETAILED FORECAST OF PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
TIL THEN...ENJOY THE MILDER WEATHER. THE MILD SPELL WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE SNOW PACK TO MELT AND DRAIN OFF SLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AREA RIVERS TO SLOWLY EDGE BACK DOWN FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ON
TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS BAND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NOT REDUCE ANY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
EXPECT STRENGTHENING SRLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. LLWS TO CENTRAL AND WRN TAF SITES AS SFC WINDS WILL START
OUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BELOW THE MDT TO STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TONIGHT COULD REDUCE CIGS DOWN TO
MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 03Z AND FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES AFTER
06Z AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...A CHC OF SOME SNOW AND RAIN...BUT MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
703 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER
AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW COULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR WET SNOW IN THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY...PRECEDING A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FANTASTIC...THOUGH FLEETING PINKISH SUNRISE NOTED HERE IN
CENTRAL PENN AROUND 1145Z. A THICKENING CIRRUS/ALTO STRATUS /AND
SOME NS ACROSS NWRN PENN/ WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY. A FEW NORTH/SOUTH STRIPES OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PENN WHERE SWRLY ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS MAXIMIZED AT THE NOSE OF A 70 KT JET AT 850 MB ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NRN PENN THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THROUGH
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES /OR SLEET PELLETS/ MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND FORM THE MID CLOUD DECK AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
8H BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT NE OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BRIGHTENING A BIT. DESPITE
RAPID WARMING ALOFT...THE ACTUAL SFC WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA TODAY WITH MCLDY SKIES SLOWING THE WARMUP. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS....TO THE MID 30S OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
UPPER 30S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES
TO SCENT QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF A
50 TO 60 KT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UVVEL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN TONIGHT.
COLDEST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR
SE...WHERE SOME SNOW COVER REMAINS. ACROSS THE NE...THERE IS LESS
SNOW COVER...AND THE P-GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.
FOR SAT...LEFT MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR
THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A
SW BREEZE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES.
BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW
FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD TEMPS SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK.
HIGHS SAT WILL BE IN THE U40S NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEAN SFC-800 MB FLOW SLOWLY VEERS AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO WNW
BY SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A WEAK CFRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE.
COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK CFRONT DRIFTS TO NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE AND CLOUDS
THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE. EMPLOYING A CONSENSUS...ALL-MODEL
BLEND TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL DEG F IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...POPS WERE INCREASED BY 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE MAIN
AXIS OF PRECIP SHIFTED SOUTH BY NEARLY 100 KM...BASED ON 00Z
U.S./EC AND ENS TRENDS.
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WET SNOW AND UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM...WHILE
925-850 MB WET BULD TEMPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-76
CORRIDOR SUGGEST RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN...OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAIN/WET SNOW - CREATED
BY THE STRONG SOUTHERN GFS OUTLIER...THAT ONLY BRUSHES THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF PENN WITH SOME LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND HEADS UP ALONG...OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACT DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY - MID WEEK PERIOD WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW NRN AND
SRN STREAM ENERGY PHASES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FCST OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED...WITH CHC POPS FURTHER NW.
THERE/S STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE 00/06Z OPER MODELS AND ENS
FCST SYSTEMS BY MID WEEK. CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A COMBINATION OF
CURRENT SUPERBLEND AND PRIOR DATA TO ARRIVE AT THE GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEATHER FEATURES AND QPF. THE RAIN...SNOW
LINE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE CWA...AS WAS THE CASE ON
THIS LAST EVENT. ANYWAY...THIS IS STILL A DAY 5-6 FCST AND A LOT
WILL CHANGE BEFORE THE STORM SHOWS ITS TRUE COLORS AND WE CAN BE
CONFIDENT IN A MORE DETAILED FORECAST OF PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
TIL THEN...ENJOY THE MILDER WEATHER. THE MILD SPELL WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE SNOW PACK TO MELT AND DRAIN OFF SLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AREA RIVERS TO SLOWLY EDGE BACK DOWN FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ON
TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS BAND
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT
REDUCE ANY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT STRENGTHENING
SRLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LLWS TO CENTRAL
AND WRN TAF SITES AS SFC WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BELOW THE MDT TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...A CHC OF SOME SNOW AND RAIN...BUT MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
633 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER
AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW COULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR WET SNOW IN THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY...PRECEDING A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THICKENING CIRRUS/ALTO STRATUS /AND SOME NS ACROSS NWRN PENN/ WAS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY. A FEW
NORTH/SOUTH STRIPES OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN
PENN WHERE SWRLY ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS MAXIMIZED AT THE NOSE OF A 70
KT JET AT 850 MB ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NRN PENN THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THROUGH
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES /OR SLEET PELLETS/ MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND FORM THE MID CLOUD DECK AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
8H BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT NE OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BRIGHTENING A BIT. DESPITE
RAPID WARMING ALOFT...THE ACTUAL SFC WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA TODAY WITH MCLDY SKIES SLOWING THE WARMUP. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS....TO THE MID 30S OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
UPPER 30S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES
TO SCENT QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF A
50 TO 60 KT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UVVEL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN TONIGHT.
COLDEST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR
SE...WHERE SOME SNOW COVER REMAINS. ACROSS THE NE...THERE IS LESS
SNOW COVER...AND THE P-GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.
FOR SAT...LEFT MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR
THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A
SW BREEZE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES.
BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW
FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD TEMPS SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK.
HIGHS SAT WILL BE IN THE U40S NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEAN SFC-800 MB FLOW SLOWLY VEERS AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO WNW
BY SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A WEAK CFRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE.
COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK CFRONT DRIFTS TO NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE AND CLOUDS
THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE. EMPLOYING A CONSENSUS...ALL-MODEL
BLEND TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL DEG F IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...POPS WERE INCREASED BY 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE MAIN
AXIS OF PRECIP SHIFTED SOUTH BY NEARLY 100 KM...BASED ON 00Z
U.S./EC AND ENS TRENDS.
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WET SNOW AND UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM...WHILE
925-850 MB WET BULD TEMPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-76
CORRIDOR SUGGEST RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN...OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAIN/WET SNOW - CREATED
BY THE STRONG SOUTHERN GFS OUTLIER...THAT ONLY BRUSHES THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF PENN WITH SOME LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND HEADS UP ALONG...OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACT DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY - MID WEEK PERIOD WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW NRN AND
SRN STREAM ENERGY PHASES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FCST OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED...WITH CHC POPS FURTHER NW.
THERE/S STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE 00/06Z OPER MODELS AND ENS
FCST SYSTEMS BY MID WEEK. CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A COMBINATION OF
CURRENT SUPERBLEND AND PRIOR DATA TO ARRIVE AT THE GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEATHER FEATURES AND QPF. THE RAIN...SNOW
LINE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE CWA...AS WAS THE CASE ON
THIS LAST EVENT. ANYWAY...THIS IS STILL A DAY 5-6 FCST AND A LOT
WILL CHANGE BEFORE THE STORM SHOWS ITS TRUE COLORS AND WE CAN BE
CONFIDENT IN A MORE DETAILED FORECAST OF PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
TIL THEN...ENJOY THE MILDER WEATHER. THE MILD SPELL WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE SNOW PACK TO MELT AND DRAIN OFF SLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AREA RIVERS TO SLOWLY EDGE BACK DOWN FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ON
TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS BAND
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT
REDUCE ANY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT STRENGTHENING
SRLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LLWS TO CENTRAL
AND WRN TAF SITES AS SFC WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BELOW THE MDT TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...A CHC OF SOME SNOW AND RAIN...BUT MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1150 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL SD WITH MORE UPSTREAM. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS SHOW
THIS TREND IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE.
THUS...UPDATED WEATHER AND POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING VERY
STRONG WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE SHOWERS COULD
BRING DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WITH GUST UP TO 60
MPH OR HIGHER OUT WEST. MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND
WARNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH SHOWERS
AND THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE 50 TO 70 KT WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 MB BUT THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL MIX
DOWN GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOCAL SHOWERS
WILL HELP MIX THEM DOWN AS WILL DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 0Z. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE EAST OF THE WARNING. THE FIRST ITEM TO NOTE WILL BE THAT
WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED TONIGHT...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR
TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SECOND THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS WHICH
MAY MORE EASILY TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AND THE THIRD
THING TO NOTE IS THAT A COUPLE OF THE MODELS GENERATE WARNING LEVEL
GUSTS AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALL THE WAY TO THE SFC IS LIMITED.
AREAS THAT ARE SNOW FREE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS INCREASE. EXTREME FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
IN PART TO THE GOOD MIXING AND ALSO TO ALMOST FLAT FLOW ALOFT. ONCE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS WILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING AT
AN EXITING SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS BACK TO RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE PLAINS STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A LACK OF CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST. OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS
BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO ALL LOCATIONS INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE
OF STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A LULL IN THE WINDS.
AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS OR
HIGHER. SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL BRING DOWN THE VERY
STRONG WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS OF OVER 50
KNOTS POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ003-004-
009-015-016-033>035-045-048.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-
036-037-051.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION. IT HAS BEEN A
COUPLE OF WEEK SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THIS FAR ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN EARLY TO
MID FEBRUARY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
FURTHER TO THE NORTHER...A TROUGH IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL
TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL AND ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1
INCH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR MID-FEBRUARY. MUCH OF THE SAME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIP. ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...ALOFT WE ARE UNDER A ZONAL
FLOW...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A WELL ESTABLISHED RETURN FLOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AND TEMPORARILY DRIES OUT THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND INTO TUESDAY.
EVEN AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES RACE
THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING POPS IN THE 40S TO 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FINALLY ON THURSDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. BUT
AROUND FRIDAY COULD GET A CLOSE CALL FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE...SO
BUMPING UP POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY...IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
MODELS STILL SHOWING THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM...LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TOO MUCH WARM ADVECTION TO MOUNT MUCH OF A
WINTRY THREAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 62 52 64 / 30 40 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 61 50 62 / 40 30 30 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 60 50 62 / 40 30 30 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 57 47 59 / 30 20 30 80
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-MORGAN-
SCOTT TN.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
932 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK.
AS EVIDENCED BY THE DRY LAYER ON THE 00Z RAOB (4-12KFT AGL) AND
THE LACK OF RADAR ECHOES BELOW 10KFT...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DRY AIR FOR THIS LIGHT RAIN TO OVERCOME. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH 6 AM...LEAVING ONLY SPRINKLES.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 555 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016/
SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE TAF PERIOD INCLUDING MVFR
CIGS...TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE SIDED WITH A PERSISTENCE AND CLIMO FORECAST REGARDING THE
ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS WHICH ALIGNS WITH RAP AND SREF FORECASTS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 6Z IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTH. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE WESTERN SITES OF AFW/FTW WILL
BE THE LAST SITES TO GO MVFR. HAVE METROPLEX SITES GOING MVFR FROM
8Z TO 10Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET...WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO VFR SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT WILL
WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY IN THE
METROPLEX WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10-15KT BEHIND IT.
RAIN CHANCES IN THE METROPLEX LOOK LOW AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BECAUSE EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS.
FOR WACO RAIN WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW VCSH BY MIDDAY AND -RA PREVAILING BY MID
AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF ADDING THUNDER OR
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT WACO IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016/
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY ACTIVE AND FAST SEMI-ZONAL
PATTERN CONTINUES ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE KS/OK BORDER WILL
SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND START MOVING INTO OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW A STOUT
ELEVATED WARM LAYER /OR CAPPING INVERSION/ ANCHORED AROUND 800MB
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AS WAA
INCREASES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER BAJA MEXICO
ARRIVES WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT AND WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY OUR
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STREAMING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES WITH THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS INTO CENTRAL TX
DURING THE PRIME HEATING OF THE DAY AND IN MORE JUXTAPOSITION WITH
THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL TX INTO THE LIKELY CORRIDOR. WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE
850-700MB LAYER STILL TO OVERCOME...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO
BE HEAVY. ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS AS WELL. NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE N` THERE.
CAA WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHS WILL
BARELY REACH 60 DEGREES...COMPARED TO THE NEAR 80 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES SEEN IN SOME AREAS. WITH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE IN RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE LOW LEVELS...LAPSE RATES
ALOFT START STEEPENING WITH INCREASING ASCENT. BOTH THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS VERY DYNAMIC WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
INCREASING WESTERLY BULK SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED
TSTORMS. WITH THE MAIN CORE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING EAST FROM I-20
NORTH TO THE RED RIVER...THE STRONGEST WESTERLY BULK SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST BET FOR ANY STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL READILY LIFT EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL LINGER ON EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING QUICKLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
OUR BEST CHANCES FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. MORE
SEASONABLE COLDER WEATHER FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DAMPEN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WAA RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND WILL START TO
RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME 80S POSSIBLE BY NEXT SUNDAY.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 64 73 54 60 47 / 10 30 30 20 30
WACO, TX 63 74 55 64 47 / 10 60 70 20 40
PARIS, TX 60 72 51 58 43 / 10 20 20 20 40
DENTON, TX 62 72 50 59 45 / 10 20 20 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 62 72 52 59 45 / 10 30 30 20 30
DALLAS, TX 64 73 55 60 48 / 10 30 30 20 30
TERRELL, TX 62 72 55 60 46 / 10 30 40 30 40
CORSICANA, TX 64 73 58 63 49 / 10 50 60 30 40
TEMPLE, TX 63 73 56 64 49 / 10 70 70 20 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 60 73 50 59 45 / 10 20 30 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
555 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.AVIATION...
SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE TAF PERIOD INCLUDING MVFR
CIGS...TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE SIDED WITH A PERSISTENCE AND CLIMO FORECAST REGARDING THE
ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS WHICH ALIGNS WITH RAP AND SREF FORECASTS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 6Z IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTH. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE WESTERN SITES OF AFW/FTW WILL
BE THE LAST SITES TO GO MVFR. HAVE METROPLEX SITES GOING MVFR FROM
8Z TO 10Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET...WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO VFR SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT WILL
WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY IN THE
METROPLEX WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10-15KT BEHIND IT.
RAIN CHANCES IN THE METROPLEX LOOK LOW AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BECAUSE EVEN IF IT DID OCCUR AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS.
FOR WACO RAIN WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW VCSH BY MIDDAY AND -RA PREVAILING BY MID
AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF ADDING THUNDER OR
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT WACO IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016/
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY ACTIVE AND FAST SEMI-ZONAL
PATTERN CONTINUES ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE KS/OK BORDER WILL
SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND START MOVING INTO OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW A STOUT
ELEVATED WARM LAYER /OR CAPPING INVERSION/ ANCHORED AROUND 800MB
SO THROUGH THIS EVENING...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AS WAA
INCREASES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER BAJA MEXICO
ARRIVES WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT AND WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY OUR
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STREAMING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES WITH THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS INTO CENTRAL TX
DURING THE PRIME HEATING OF THE DAY AND IN MORE JUXTAPOSITION WITH
THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL TX INTO THE LIKELY CORRIDOR. WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE
850-700MB LAYER STILL TO OVERCOME...WE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO
BE HEAVY. ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS AS WELL. NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE N` THERE.
CAA WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHS WILL
BARELY REACH 60 DEGREES...COMPARED TO THE NEAR 80 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES SEEN IN SOME AREAS. WITH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE IN RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE LOW LEVELS...LAPSE RATES
ALOFT START STEEPENING WITH INCREASING ASCENT. BOTH THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS VERY DYNAMIC WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
INCREASING WESTERLY BULK SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED
TSTORMS. WITH THE MAIN CORE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING EAST FROM I-20
NORTH TO THE RED RIVER...THE STRONGEST WESTERLY BULK SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST BET FOR ANY STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL READILY LIFT EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL LINGER ON EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING QUICKLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
OUR BEST CHANCES FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. MORE
SEASONABLE COLDER WEATHER FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS
BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DAMPEN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WAA RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND WILL START TO
RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME 80S POSSIBLE BY NEXT SUNDAY.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 64 73 54 60 47 / 10 30 30 20 30
WACO, TX 63 74 55 64 47 / 20 60 70 20 40
PARIS, TX 60 72 51 58 43 / 20 20 20 20 40
DENTON, TX 62 72 50 59 45 / 10 20 20 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 62 72 52 59 45 / 10 30 30 20 30
DALLAS, TX 64 73 55 60 48 / 10 30 30 20 30
TERRELL, TX 62 72 55 60 46 / 20 30 40 30 40
CORSICANA, TX 64 73 58 63 49 / 20 50 60 30 40
TEMPLE, TX 63 73 56 64 49 / 20 70 70 20 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 60 73 50 59 45 / 10 20 30 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
848 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
BY EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH COLDER WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM EST SATURDAY...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
BASICALLY REMOVED FROM THE STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE JUST OFF TO
THE SOUTH. EVENING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE BELOW THIS
LEVEL WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS MORE FROM THE SW. HOWEVER APPEARS
THIS REMAINS TOO SHALLOW TO RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW CLOUD CANOPY NOW OVER THE FAR SW
SECTIONS SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NE UNDER THE INVERSION...AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING LIFT UNDER THE
UPSTREAM WAVE PERHAPS CAUSES A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS TO WORK INTO
THE NW AROUND DAWN PER LATEST HRRR MODEL. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT AS SPOTS WILL QUICKLY GO
FROM CLEAR TO LOW CANOPY ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE WHICH MAY BE
EVEN SLOWER. COULD EVEN SEE SOME FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
REGION AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES SO INCLUDED AS WELL. MADE
SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO LOW TEMPS DESPITE A LONGER PERIOD
OF SEEING CLEAR SKIES AS EXPECT DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO HOLD LOWS
UP IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AS WELL.
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST NEW
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CLIPPING THE FAR
NORTHWEST TIER OF COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THERE IS STRONG FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A
GOOD DOSE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. THE LATEST NOHRSC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN THIS LOCATION WHICH IS HOLDING A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF LIQUID. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOW IS A HYDRO CONCERN SO A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY. BUFKIT SHOWS STEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY AS WELL SO SOME THUNDER CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARMING ALOFT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MID/UPPER 50S TO THE WEST. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES START TO FALL AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST SATURDAY...
PASSING LOW WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BRING
SHOWERS TO AN END. A BRIEF UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE WEST. COLDER AIR LAGS TO OUR NORTH SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SFC FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST HEADING INTO
MONDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHEAST U.S. MODELS HINT AT KEEPING LOW LVL
MOISTURE SITUATED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH POTENTIAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE PIEDMONT. ATTM
LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE INTENSIFIES WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTH TX...WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...BUT
MORESO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. LOW LVL TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH BUT SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR POSSIBLY FZRA IN THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH AS THE
HIGH RETREATS TUESDAY AND PRECIP INCREASES THE WEDGE REMAINS...BUT
TEMPS WARM AT ALL LEVELS ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THE EASTERN CWA TO SEE BETTER THREAT OF RAIN TUESDAY AS SE
FLOW OVERRUNS COASTAL FRONT. MAIN SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER TX/LA. THE
12Z GFS IS SIMILAR AT THE SFC AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE ECMWF INTO
TUESDAY BUT FAVORS LESS PRECIP TUESDAY. ATTM...STILL LOOKS LIKE NO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT-TUESDAY IN THE EAST WITH
AROUND TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE WEST VIRGINIA MTNS.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
PIEDMONT...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS. WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING
TO OUR NORTH MONDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE
AREA...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL COULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH IF IT CLEARS OUT SOME. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 50S PIEDMONT TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS FALL WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...TO THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO RISE AT LEAST IN THE WEDGE TUESDAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE EAST AND INTO THE ALLEGHANYS TO GREENBRIER VALLEY. THE MILDEST
AREA WILL BE WEST OF A RICHLANDS TO CHILHOWIE LINE WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY WERE STILL
FAVORING MORE OF A RAIN EVENT TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARM 8H
AIR RIDES UP AND OVER IN SITU WEDGE. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS IT COULD BE JUST COULD ENOUGH
FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE ALLEGHANYS INTO SE WV AND NORTH OF
LYH. HOWEVER...THREAT OF SNOW WILL BE LEFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM....BUT LOOKS LIKE COLDER AIR WILL SWING RAIN BACK TO SNOW TO
SNOW SHOWERS HEADING INTO LATE WED NIGHT-THU...SO SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
RAIN EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING
OF RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEADLINED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECM AND
ENSEMBLES TAKING THIS SYSTEM OUT.
THEN LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LVL JET ROUNDS THE TROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING SOME WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO THE MTNS.
WE SHOULD BE COLDER AND DRIER TOWARD SATURDAY THOUGH GFS SLINGING
ANOTHER CLIPPER OUR SATURDAY. THIS IS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW GIVEN ECM
AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER.
AS FOR TEMPS WENT COOLER THAN MOS ON WEDNESDAY AS THINK WEDGE WILL
BE SHALLOW BUT ENHANCED BY RAINFALL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
HEAVIER RAINS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
WENT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE MTNS AS STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AS 8H TEMPS FALL FROM ZERO TO -6C.
TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE 30S TO 40S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 555 PM EST SATURDAY...
DECREASING CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...RETURN FLOW OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS DETERIORATION IN FLYING
CONDITIONS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN CURRENT DRY AIR AND IDEA THAT MODELS
HAVE BEEN TOO WET IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. STILL APPEARS THAT SITES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STAY VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
TREND TO AT LEAST MVFR AS DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT ARRIVES. HOWEVER MAY SEE A SWATH OF MVFR CIGS ADVANCE EAST
INTO KDAN SOONER SO INCLUDED A LOWER CIG A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
AT KLYH OVERNIGHT. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EXPECTING MOISTURE TO
ARRIVE SOONER WITH A POSSIBLE QUICK DOWNTURN IN CONDITIONS AFTER
DARK WITH A LOWERING OF CIGS THROUGH MVFR TO IFR LATE THIS
EVENING ...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/SHOWERS AND FOG LATE. THUS
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS AND KEEP CIGS ABOVE THE VERY PESSIMISTIC NAM
GUIDANCE FORECAST OF IFR/LIFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL JET EAST ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AROUND KLWB
BY MIDDAY...WITH THIS AXIS SWINGING SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR WITH AT LEAST A FEW BANDS
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT WAY TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...AND DRIVES CIGS INTO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MVFR TO OCNL IFR VSBYS IN
THE RAIN/FOG.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN SUNDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
RIDGES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
WELL TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CIGS
ALONG WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIKELY TO LINGER AS THE WEDGE DEVELOPS.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LOOKS TO
NUDGE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST WEST OF
THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED POSSIBLY BRINGING VERY POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...LOW CLOUDS/CIGS/VSBYS
AND HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WED NIGHT...PRECIP WILL
TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR INTO THURSDAY
MOUNTAINS...WHILE IMPROVING TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM MAKING FOR
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
VAZ019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
933 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT WESTERN WASHINGTON
LATE THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL END ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WILL BE
MILD AND DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A RIPPLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVG NE
THROUGH WRN WA. HAVE BEEN WATCHING AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN LIFT
N/NE THIS EVNG. THE RAIN WILL SOON REACH BLI AND THEN EXIT THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 1-2 AM. THE 04Z HRRR SHOWS
THE SHOWERS OVER SW WA WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT AROUND
135W-140W. IT WILL DRIVE A 986 MB SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 130W
ON FRI MORNING...WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED COLD FRONT LIFTING NE
THROUGH WRN WA OVER THE COURSE OF FRI AFTN. THE FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FAIRLY STRONG E/SE GRADIENTS...THEN FOLLOWED BY A
SURGE OF S/SW WINDS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE WILL BE A 1-3 HOUR
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...WITH
FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE MTNS
OWING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ZONE ACTIVITY ON FRI EVNG.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM ABOUT 4000 FEET TO 2500 FEET WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO THIS WILL LEAD TO RESPECTABLE SNOW AMTS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MTN ZONES TO HANDLE
THE EXPECTED SNOW.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE COURSE OF
SAT...AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THE AIR MASS WILL
STABILIZE...AND LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE. A
WELL-DEFINED BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SAT NGT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MRNG.
YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS WRN WA ON
SUNDAY...WITH RAIN REACHING THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN
SPREADING INLAND BY MID-DAY. IT WILL PASS QUICKLY BY...PRECEDED
LIKE MOST FRONTS BY E/SE GRADIENTS...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND MTN
SNOW...THEN FOLLOWED BY A S/SW PUSH OF WIND AND POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY NGT...QUIETING THE WEATHER.HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL...LONG TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING NEXT WEEK TO BE NICE WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DOMINATING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
SLOWLY RELAXES AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD. TEMPERATURES IN THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
A WEAKENING FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO A BUILDING LONG WAVE RIDGE...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT
BE HIGH. STRONG UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL GIVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD
WEATHER WITH LOWS ONLY REACHING THE 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 60 AS WE
MOVE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE COAST TO APPROACH
WASHINGTON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNING SOUTHERLY FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE THRU WESTERN WA THIS EVENING.
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO TRACK ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY. AIR MASS
MOIST AND STABILIZING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CEILINGS MAINLY VFR SAGGING TO PRIMARILY MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AS RAIN
SPREADS ONSHORE WITH THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
KSEA...SOME RAIN UNTIL ABOUT 07Z THEN LINGERING SHOWERS. CEILINGS
030-045. RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING AROUND 035. SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KT INTO
FRIDAY. BUEHNER
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING FROM THE SW. THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 500
NM FRIDAY EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO SWING ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY.
A NEAR 985 MB STRONG GALE IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF CAPE FLATTERY AND TURN NE OFF NORTHERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND LATE FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. GALE WARNINGS NOW IN
PLACE FOR THE COAST...STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ENTRANCES AND NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD EASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
THEN HIGHER PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. BUEHNER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW. A TRANSITION TO A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR OLYMPICS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
10 NM-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON HOW FAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY HOW WARM IT WILL BE TOMORROW.
THE CORE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOLLOWING THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES. 19.19Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT DECOUPLING AROUND 00-01Z THIS EVENING WHICH
SHUTS DOWN THE WIND GUSTS. THINKING THAT THIS IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC
AND THAT THE GUSTS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT BE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
EVENING WHERE A DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR CONDITIONS AND MAKE THAT DECISION.
CONSIDERED DROPPING IOWA/DANE COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING...BUT THE
HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...SO WILL LET THEM STAY
IN THE WARNING FOR NOW.
HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM WRF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MUCH OF
THE AREA CLEARED OUT BEFORE 00Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE EARLY EVENING AS THE CLOSED LOW
QUICKLY PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
GOING INTO TOMORROW...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MAKING IT BACK INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AS
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAG THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN TWO
ROWS OF COUNTIES NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN WI WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SRN WI FOR SAT NT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ON SUN BUT WITH MOST OF IT PASSING TO THE SOUTH THUS ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF LGT SNOW/RAIN. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
FOR MON BUT DRY AND CLOUDY WX IS EXPECTED. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MON AND MON NT. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD FOR TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR TUE AFT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER ON WED BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NW FOR THU AND FRI.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLING
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO TOMORROW...BUT DEFINITELY
NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR
THEN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES THOUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY STAY AT GALE FORCE OR AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AFTER THE STORM FORCE WINDS
END...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
WINDS STAY OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062>072.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-052-059-060.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056>058.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STARTED OUT AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE
CHANGED TO SNOW OVER VILAS CO. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES
SOUTH OF VILAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE WESTERN FOX
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE LOW...HAVE HAD A FEW GUSTS APPROACH AND
SURPASS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH) OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE AREAS. CENTRAL WI HAS REMAINED WELL BELOW CRITERIA SO
FAR. WITH COORDINATION FROM ARX...WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
CENTRAL WI. EASTERN WI IS MORE PRONE TO THE HIGHER GUSTS SO WILL
LET THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR THIS AREA. WIND GUSTS AND PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THOUGH PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WI BY MID TO LATE EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN WI FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PROLONGING THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER THERE...WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
EVENING OVER EASTERN WI. THEN GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THINKING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER MOST OF NOAM AS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE AND AMPLIFIES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGING TO MORE RAIN OR
MIXED RAN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WARM ABOVE FREEZING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH UNLIKELY. MOST GUSTS
WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KTS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29. MVFR CIGS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS ARE LIKELY. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-038>040-045-
048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S....BUT WITH A FEW IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.
THE FIRST OF NOTE WAS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH HAS
HELPED BRING THE STRONG WINDS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. DESPITE 900MB WIND CORE OF 50-60 KT TRAVERSING ALL OF IOWA
INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL...THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER ENDED UP GOING RIGHT AROUND OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
925MB TEMPS COOLED QUITE A BIT TOO...DROPPING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z TO
2-6C NOW PER RAP ANALYSIS. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM I-35 WESTWARD INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE NEXT POTENT LOOKING TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS...THOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT IMPACTED
THE AREA TODAY. A THIRD TROUGH WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING WAS
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MN AND WI TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION IMPACT WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE POTENT NATURE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT THE RAP HAS A CORE OF 40-55 KT 925MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION BEHIND THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THESE STRONGER
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT A 10-20 MPH BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A 925MB TEMP WARM SURGE TO 6-12C
AT 06Z SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH A LOT OF THE
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN SFC-
925MB WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH NORTHWEST...CAUSING 925MB TEMPS TO FALL
TO 2-7C AT 12Z.
ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SHORTWAVE IS TO CONTINUE FEEDING COOLER 925MB AIR INTO THE
REGION...DROPPING 1-2C THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS SOUTH INTO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-
94. MORE SUN OVERALL MAY HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 DUE TO
DISSIPATING SNOWPACK AND WARMEST 925MB TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGHLIGHTS OF INTEREST...
CURRENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MODELS PROG TO SWING MOST OF IT
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN IL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE TRACK THAT APPEARS TO MARCH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE 19.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH IT...HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE DRY.
MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BAND. GIVEN THE
TROUGH JUST COMING ONSHORE NOW...FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. UP THE EAST
COAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE LINGERING TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. UNDERSCORE MIGHT AS THE 19.12Z ECMWF REALLY BACKED OFF ON
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DUE TO A SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
BRIEF WARM UP ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. ASSUMING A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOSES THE SNOWPACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP COUNTERACT SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR. THE BIGGEST IMPACT COULD BE ON LOWS WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF
WITH INDICATIONS IN DAYS 8-10 OF THE 19.12Z ECMWF AND CFS RUN FROM
THE 18TH FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAD BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. ALSO...A
BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS
LATE. IF WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...WITH WINDS HOVERING AROUND 46 KTS AT 1KFT THROUGH
10Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SNOW PACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS
WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE MELTING THE SNOW. WITH 1-2 INCH
WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE REMAINING SNOW PACK...COMBINED WITH A
MAINLY FROZEN GROUND...EXPECT RISES ON MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RISES NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
AFTER SATURDAY EVENING SNOW PACK MELTING LOOKS TO SLOW AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND FALL BACK
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING IT
FROM ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1137 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HAVE UPGRADED ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. SEEING SEVERAL REPORTS OF 35 TO
40 SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF 50 KTS
GUSTS AT WEBSTER CITY AND DUBUQUE. AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ALL EYES ON TODAY/S WIND EVENT. 19.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 HPA
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 TO 8 HPA
THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 KTS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING DUE EAST INTO
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z AND THEN TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/
ECMWF 0-1 KM WINDS INCREASE FROM 45 TO 50 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHILE THE NAM/RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER FROM 50 TO 55 KTS. IMPRESSIVE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STRONG DIVERGENT Q-VECTOR
SIGNAL SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WELL DUE
TO SNOW COVER...THUS IMPACTING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. MODIFYING THE 19.08Z RAP SOUNDING AT 18Z FOR
KRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOWS A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 850 HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KTS. IF
THE MIXED LAYER CAN TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS...SURFACE GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES AROUND PEAK HEATING OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. EITHER WAY...A VERY WINDY
DAY ON TAP.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...SO
DELAYED START OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MINUS TAYLOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 15
AND 18Z...PEAKING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER 00Z. INCREASED GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE EAST. SEE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TODAY...LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT....MOVING THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS SD MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. STILL SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH ARE TOO DRY TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT-WAVES DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...RISES ON
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. ALSO...A
BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS
LATE. IF WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...WITH WINDS HOVERING AROUND 46 KTS AT 1KFT THROUGH
10Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOOKING INTO SNOW MELT OF THE 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW PACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING RISES TO MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL...EXPECT POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ON RIVERS AND RISES TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE IN SOME BASINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ061.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ029-032>034-
041>044-053>055.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1002 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HAVE UPGRADED ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. SEEING SEVERAL REPORTS OF 35 TO
40 SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF 50 KTS
GUSTS AT WEBSTER CITY AND DUBUQUE. AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE WIND ADVISORYIS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ALL EYES ON TODAY/S WIND EVENT. 19.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 HPA
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 TO 8 HPA
THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 KTS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING DUE EAST INTO
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z AND THEN TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/
ECMWF 0-1 KM WINDS INCREASE FROM 45 TO 50 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHILE THE NAM/RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER FROM 50 TO 55 KTS. IMPRESSIVE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STRONG DIVERGENT Q-VECTOR
SIGNAL SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WELL DUE
TO SNOW COVER...THUS IMPACTING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. MODIFYING THE 19.08Z RAP SOUNDING AT 18Z FOR
KRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOWS A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 850 HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KTS. IF
THE MIXED LAYER CAN TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS...SURFACE GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES AROUND PEAK HEATING OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. EITHER WAY...A VERY WINDY
DAY ON TAP.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...SO
DELAYED START OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MINUS TAYLOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 15
AND 18Z...PEAKING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER 00Z. INCREASED GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE EAST. SEE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TODAY...LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT....MOVING THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS SD MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. STILL SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH ARE TOO DRY TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT-WAVES DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...RISES ON
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WEST AND VERY STRONG. WEST WINDS 25-30KTS G35-45KTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES...MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z-22Z WITH THE STRONGER OF THE
WINDS AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN/OPEN COUNTRY AREAS LIKE KRST. A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 19.15Z THRU 20.00Z.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KTS AN LOCALLY GUSTY THRU TONIGHT. ONLY SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOOKING INTO SNOW MELT OF THE 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW PACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING RISES TO MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL...EXPECT POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ON RIVERS AND RISES TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE IN SOME BASINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ061.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ029-032>034-
041>044-053>055.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
525 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ALL EYES ON TODAY/S WIND EVENT. 19.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 HPA
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 TO 8 HPA
THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 KTS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING DUE EAST INTO
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z AND THEN TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/
ECMWF 0-1 KM WINDS INCREASE FROM 45 TO 50 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHILE THE NAM/RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER FROM 50 TO 55 KTS. IMPRESSIVE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STRONG DIVERGENT Q-VECTOR
SIGNAL SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WELL DUE
TO SNOW COVER...THUS IMPACTING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. MODIFYING THE 19.08Z RAP SOUNDING AT 18Z FOR
KRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOWS A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 850 HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KTS. IF
THE MIXED LAYER CAN TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS...SURFACE GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES AROUND PEAK HEATING OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. EITHER WAY...A VERY WINDY
DAY ON TAP.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...SO
DELAYED START OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MINUS TAYLOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 15
AND 18Z...PEAKING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER 00Z. INCREASED GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE EAST. SEE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TODAY...LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT....MOVING THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS SD MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. STILL SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH ARE TOO DRY TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT-WAVES DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...RISES ON
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WEST AND VERY STRONG. WEST WINDS 25-30KTS G35-45KTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES...MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z-22Z WITH THE STRONGER OF THE
WINDS AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN/OPEN COUNTRY AREAS LIKE KRST. A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 19.15Z THRU 20.00Z.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KTS AN LOCALLY GUSTY THRU TONIGHT. ONLY SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOOKING INTO SNOW MELT OF THE 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW PACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING RISES TO MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL...EXPECT POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ON RIVERS AND RISES TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE IN SOME BASINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ALL EYES ON TODAY/S WIND EVENT. 19.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 HPA
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 TO 8 HPA
THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 KTS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING DUE EAST INTO
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z AND THEN TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/
ECMWF 0-1 KM WINDS INCREASE FROM 45 TO 50 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHILE THE NAM/RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER FROM 50 TO 55 KTS. IMPRESSIVE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STRONG DIVERGENT Q-VECTOR
SIGNAL SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WELL DUE
TO SNOW COVER...THUS IMPACTING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. MODIFYING THE 19.08Z RAP SOUNDING AT 18Z FOR
KRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOWS A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 850 HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KTS. IF
THE MIXED LAYER CAN TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS...SURFACE GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES AROUND PEAK HEATING OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. EITHER WAY...A VERY WINDY
DAY ON TAP.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...SO
DELAYED START OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MINUS TAYLOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 15
AND 18Z...PEAKING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER 00Z. INCREASED GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE EAST. SEE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TODAY...LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT....MOVING THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS SD MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. STILL SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH ARE TOO DRY TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT-WAVES DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...RISES ON
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1115 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
CLOUDS/CIGS...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED AND QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST...WITH A LARGE
CLEARING AREA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST - PER LATEST FOG/STRATUS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS THEN POINT TO A LOBE OF MVFR CIGS
RETURNING FRI MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THESE
CLOUDS WOULD QUICKLY EXIT EAST...LEAVING SCT/SKC VFR FOR THE LATER
PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VSBY/WX...
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE WILL COME SOME -SHRA CHANCES...BETTER THREAT
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE -SHRA DURING THE ANTICIPATED
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS...WITH SOME BR AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS...
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST/HIGHER GUSTS MORE LIKELY POST A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...WHERE THE CHANCE FOR DEEPER MIXING ALSO
EXISTS. LLWS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT KLSE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOOKING INTO SNOW MELT OF THE 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW PACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING RISES TO MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL...EXPECT POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ON RIVERS AND RISES TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE IN SOME BASINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST SUN FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES WITH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA...PROVIDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND MONDAY...
NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE
PERSISTENT FEBRUARY WARMTH. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND MONDAY...TRANSLATING TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AS ADVERTISED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TDA AND MON TEMPS AT PHX AND YUM ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THE OLD 1982 RECORDS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...ALBEIT A BIT
BREEZY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE. BREEZINESS IS RELATED TO AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH.
TUESDAY...
A PACIFIC STORM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT WILL SPREAD COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR A GENERAL 5 TO 6 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPS OVER MONDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AT PHOENIX AND YUMA FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST. THE
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING OF KATABATIC
WINDS AS THEY FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
WARM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINING SORT OF STEADY
STATE...I.E. IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SUNDAY...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH STRONGER THAN
THE EUROPEAN...AND THIS FAR OUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREADS...
REGARDING DISTURBANCE STRENGTH AND TIMING...GIVE US LOW CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TO GIVE
US SOME COOLING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SUNDAY. THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...FAVORING SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW HUMIDITIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DIP BELOW 10 PERCENT AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...BELOW 15 PERCENT HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THOUGH SOME RIDGETOP LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHOENIX | YUMA
FCST | RECORD /YEAR/ | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/
HIGH HIGH
SUN FEB 21 87 | 86 /1982 | 88 | 89 /1982
MON FEB 22 88 | 87 /1982 | 89 | 88 /1982
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1015 PM PST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected through the week with above normal
temperatures and some patchy morning valley fog.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Skies are clearing over Norcal and with light winds...the potential
for valley fog is rising. The HRRR VSBY prog suggests an area of dense
fog is possible from around Manteca...Nwd up to Durham...mainly
affecting the I-5 corridor. Nly winds should inhibit or limit fog
Mon/Tue mornings.
Dry weather with a warming trend will impact our region into
early next week as high pressure over the west coast strengthens
through Tuesday. Daytime highs will measure in the low to mid 60s
today across the valley with 40s and 50s across higher terrain. On
Sunday, daytime highs will be about 2-3 degrees warmer than today
with a more significant warm up Monday & Tuesday. The ridge
develops a higher amplitude with the axis centered over NorCal on
Mon-Tue. Expect valley highs to peak in the low 70s with 50s and
60s in higher terrain. That places Monday & Tuesday highs about
8-12 degrees above average for this time of year.
Nly winds may be strong enough on Mon to generate adiabatic warming...
pushing max temps above the forecast/guidance highs. Some areas
with records in the mid 70s for the 22nd may flirt with these records.
Weakening Nly winds on Tue should reduce the chances of max temps
save for SCK. The record table for the 22nd/23rd is below.
Feb 22
Modesto.........73...1985
Red Bluff.......78...2012
Redding.........80...1995
Downtown SAC....78...1985
Sac Exec AP.....75...1985
Stockton........74...1985
Feb 23
Modesto.........74...2014
Red Bluff.......80...1985
Redding.........75...1991
Downtown SAC....79...1991
Sac Exec AP.....75...1991
Stockton........73...2014
Winds will generally be light in the short term and the main
concern between now and Tuesday will be the development of patchy
morning valley fog. Motorists should be cautious during morning
commutes as visibilities may change suddenly along the road. Main
areas of concern for patchy fog include the Modesto-Stockton area
up into the Sac Metro region and northward into Marysville and
towards Chico. Some fog may also impact the Delta region. JBB
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Strong upper ridging over the west coast will keep Norcal dry
Wednesday through the end of the work week with daytime highs well
above normal. Light winds and stable conditions under the ridge
will allow for some valley fog to form nights and mornings from
about the Sacramento region southward. Extended models trending
towards a displacement of the ridge eastward by early next weekend
as a Pacific frontal system approaches the coast but models still
differ on details. For now it appears that the frontal system will
undergo some sort of split as in moves inland. Although some light
precipitation may be possible next weekend, considering strength
of the ridge, it seems likely this system will have minimal
impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Patchy dense fog may
redevelop along the Valley south of Chico late tonight and Sunday
morning. Winds will remain below 10 kts, generally out of the
north.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
339 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.NEAR TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GENERAL MODEL TREND CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER N
CENTRAL FL TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
FOR TODAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS LOOK TO AFFECT AT
LEAST THE NRN 2/RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR
UNCERTAINTY ON HIGH TEMPS. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS BASED MORE ON
BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE HIGHS A BIT
LOWER THAN WE ADVERTISED. RAP MODEL SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTN HOURS AOA 20 KFT WHICH GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD. WE
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S OVER SE GA AND MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER NE FL. AFTN ATLC SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST
AROUND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BROAD SW TO W FLOW EXPECTED TODAY
BELOW AROUND 10 MPH. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL FL WHILE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM MID
ATLC STATES WSW TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES ESEWD. DEEPEST
MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH FRONT REMAINS NW OF THE AREA SO DRY CONDS
WILL CONTINUE. SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NE
FL BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NOT A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR ANY
DENSE FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT. MONDAY...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL GA/SC TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
NUDGE SEWD WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR NW
ZONES ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN. HAVE POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE NW OF A LINE FROM JESUP TO PEARSON...HIGHEST AROUND JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY. ISOLD WEAK SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM MARION-PUTNAM-
FLAGLER COUNTIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING IN THE
AFTN. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GFS AND ECM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN TUESDAY...WITH
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING ESE ACRS NRN TX AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE
LOW NEAR DALLAS TX. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OVER OUR REGION...CAUSING WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN GA AND
INITIATION OF RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WELL AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM.
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED T-STORM
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...STRONG UPR LOW MOVES OVER NRN MS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING
ENE TO AROUND MEMPHIS. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST LIFTS WELL
N...WITH BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
DIFFERENT THAN IN PAST SYSTEMS WHERE WE HAVE A MORE NARROW WARM
SECTOR AND LESSER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IN CURRENT
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE BROAD AREA OF 60+ DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD
IN WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN VERY MILD LOW TEMPS IN UPR 50S TO
AROUND 60.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOW SIGNIFICANT MAY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF EXPECTED SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES
OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF UPPER SYSTEM ENDS UP STRONGER AND SLOWER...EVENT
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF SFC CAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...STEEPER THAN USUAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND DYNAMICS (UPR JET STREAK AND
50+KT LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING OVER FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON)
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. WE`LL NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SYSTEM MOVES E OF AREA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH BREEZY COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA FRI DRY WITH SECOND UPPER TROUGH...MAINTAINING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S....DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING WEAKER WINDS FRI AND SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HRS. JUST LOW END CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBY FOR INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT IS FROM BECOMING PREVAILING. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY IN
THE MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS AS RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. ATLC SEA BREEZE TO SHIFT WINDS TO SELY AT
SSI...CRG AND SGJ BY 18Z-21Z.
&&
.MARINE...S TO SW WINDS AT 10-15 KT AT TIMES EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. SEAS AROUND 2.5-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE...
MAINLY FROM E SWELLS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
TUESDAY BUT STALL OVER EASTERN GA. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING PROBABLE. SOME TSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY LIKELY AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY DUE TO ELY
SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 76 55 74 54 / 0 10 30 50
SSI 69 55 69 55 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 76 54 76 55 / 0 10 10 20
SGJ 72 55 72 57 / 0 10 10 10
GNV 76 52 76 54 / 0 10 10 10
OCF 76 52 76 55 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POP AND SKY GRIDS PER THE
LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS AND ALSO HRRR. DID TWEAK THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE A QUICKLY DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING GENERALLY EAST THROUGH MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING
TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 PUSH THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING A TOUCH FOR THIS IN THE GRIDS. THE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CLOUD UP LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND GOOD MIXING/CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SLOW
ANY DROP OFF. DEW POINTS...LIKEWISE...ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WIND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SKIES THAT HAVE
BROKEN OUT OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS FROM THIS MORNING AND NOW A
CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY.
DEVELOPING OUT WEST...IS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE
AREA. MODELS AGREE HAVE PRECIP DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE EAST AS THE LOW
TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS KY AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF KY. MODEL PROFILES SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KY. AS WELL...SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME PWATS IN
THE 1.10 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE AND WHILE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...THE
MENTIONED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MEAN THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE ON TO THE EAST BEFORE ANY CONCERNS WOULD ARISE. DID
LEAVE IN THE CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS
TO COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ENGAGE WITH THE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH SO SHOULD NOT SEE A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ANYWHERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE BLUEGRASS BY 10Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS A WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH REGIME MATERIALIZES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
CLEARING SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING...BEHIND THIS WEEKEND/S
WAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGS NORTHEAST WINDS JUST
ABOUT PARALLEL WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN ANY
LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES MAKE AN ABRUPT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE NEXT ROUND
OF UPPER ENERGY WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PULL ANY APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE ONLY JUST
RECENTLY PENETRATED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. NONETHELESS...LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MORE BONAFIDE
AMOUNTS WILL BE HINDERED BY TERRAIN-PARALLEL OR DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS.
A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE EXACT TRACK...EVOLUTION...AND PHASING OF THIS
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING THROUGH
LOWER CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS ALL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. MOST SENSIBLE SOLUTION CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE RAIN
CHANCES RAMPING UP TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL CURRENTLY
SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS KEEP
IT TOUGH TO PINPOINT MORE IN THE WAY OF DETAILS. CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM. NEAR NORMAL READINGS
EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD LIKELY FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WERE PREVALENT AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A SMATTERING OF IFR DUE TO LIGHT FOG. LARGELY
MVFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN BEGIN
DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL AND IN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
AND A FEW WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
MAY OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A CORRIDOR FROM KSME TO KSYM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1111 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY DRIVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1110 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS ONE AREA OF FORCING MOVES
OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED FOG FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS WELL AS RIVER VALLEYS
BASED ON HRRR AND NARRE-TL FORECASTS. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS
UPDATE.
655 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING NH AND MAINE THIS
EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AREAS. HAVE UPDATED
THE TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH HRRR HOURLIES AND RERUN WEATHER
GRIDS. THIS TAKES -FZRA OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE CARRABASSETT
VALLEY AND IS IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 6 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC. RADAR INDICATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY GOING
OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE FOOTHILLS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON AS DOWN
SLOPE WINDS KICK IN. IN THE NORTH CLOUDS WILL HANG IN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT
SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FOR JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MON AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ON WED THE HIGH EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THEN PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BY THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT ONCE AGAIN PASS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG/WARM OVERRUNNING PATTERN TO
SET UP WELL TO ITS EAST ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL MEAN INITIALLY THE
PTYPE WILL START AS SNOW WED BUT THEN CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS ALL AREAS WED NIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY PICK UP SEVERAL
INCHES MORE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. ON THU THE WARM UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AND SOME
SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM TEMPS BUT AS USUAL THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS. THU NIGHT THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND ALLOWS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRI. ALL MODELS IN
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND CLOSE ON TIMING. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND
MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND MID CONNECTICUT
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR MON-TUE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WED-THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED GALES DOWN TO SCA`S ON THE OUTER WATERS
AND WILL BE CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH.
LONG TERM...LIGHT WINDS MON THROUGH TUE. INCREASING EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST FLOW WED INTO THU SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Record breaking warmth across the region this afternoon, with a
pretty tight moisture gradient roughly running E-W along interstate
70. South of this line temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with dewpoints in the 50s. North of this boundary, temperatures
are warm, in the 60s to 70s, but dewpoints are in the 30s. So far as
of the writing of this discussion, KMCI reached 74 degrees, which
breaks the record of 70 degrees, set in 2011. Later today, along the
aforementioned boundary, there could be a few showers and
thunderstorms forming. The best chance for these showers will be
across southern and central Missouri, although there could be a few
isolated weak cells as far north as I-70. There will likely be no
surface based storms, as low level lapse rates are not very steep.
However, there will be steep enough lapse rates in the mid levels to
muster 500 to 1000 J/kg of MU Cape. 0 to 6 km shear indicates 30 to
40 kts of deep layer shear, which could combine with the elevated
instability to bring a strong storm or two. HRRR trends have
indicated a more southern and eastern slide in the area storms are
expected to form. Expect these storms to grow in coverage through
the evening and move off into eastern Missouri through the overnight
hours.
Thereafter, for the rest of the weekend and into next week, expect
dry conditions with cooler temperatures as a cooler air mass slides
into the area. Even with cooler temperatures, still anticipating
highs to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal late February highs
through the week. By mid week, there will likely be a strong winter
storm moving through the southern plains. Right now it looks like
this storm will glide south of here and go across Arkansas and
Tennessee. Should this storm slide a little north we could see it
impact portions of this forecast area, but even with some movement
north it will likely be too warm to get any snow out of it. For now
it appears there could be some light rain along its far northern
periphery mid week. Expect above normal temps and dry conditions to
persist through the late part of the week and into early next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Latest NAM guidance
still suggestive of MVFR visibilities early this morning but with a
lack of rainfall and weak wind flow...felt best to continue with no
mention for now. Otherwise...expect northerly winds through the
period (generally less than 10 kts) with FEW-SCT CU during the
daylight hrs.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1056 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 855 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue at this hour,
particularly to the south and east of where latest SPC
mesoanalysis are still showing MUCAPES over 500 J/kg and
effective shears of >35kts. There will still may be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms farther back west over central
Missouri ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Best chance
for any severe storms will be in the aforementioned areas where
there is the most instability and shear through the evening hours.
Still looks like rain chances will get pushed into the far
southeastern counties by morning as the shortwave pushes the
frontal boundary southeast through the area.
(Tonight)
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
(Rest of Forecast)
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the far
southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the
far southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
A surface low or wave near VIH along a front will move east-
southeastward late tonight dragging the front southeastward
through the St Louis metro area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue in the St Louis metro area until about
08Z Sunday. The low level cloudiness should advect out of COU
shortly after midnight, and out of the St Louis metro area by
early morning. The surface wind will become n-nely in the St Louis
metro area late tonight as it already has in UIN and COU north of
the front. Low level cloudiness will advect into UIN by late
Sunday afternoon and possibly into the rest of the taf sites
Sunday evening as a ridge of high pressure over the northern
Plains builds southeastward into the region. Northerly surface
winds will diminish Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers and storms should shift
e-se of STL by about 08Z Sunday with lingering low level
cloudiness. The low level cloudiness should advect out of STL
early Sunday morning. The surface wind will increase from a
n-nely direction late tonight after fropa. N-nwly surface winds
will continue Sunday, then diminish Sunday night as a surface
ridge builds southward into the area behind the front. Another
batch of low level clouds may advect into the area Sunday
evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TO TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS ROLLING EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS. A NICE CURL WAS NOTED IN RADAR RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...TIED TO VORT CENTER SPINNING EAST. LATEST
HI-RES MODEL ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A STEADY PROGRESSION TO THIS
PRECIPITATION TO EAST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN ALL RAIN AS OF YET...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SUNRISE SHOW NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE BELOW
850 RIGHT AROUND 0C...SUGGESTING RAIN OR SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE SHORT DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SNOW.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A CHUNK OF ENERGY ROTATES SOUTH AROUND DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. A QUICK SHOT OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WHEN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTER OUR
AREA...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALONG 290K THETA SURFACE IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z TUESDAY...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA IN A
MINIMUM OF OVERALL QG FORCING...SHOWING MAXIMUM WELL TO THE SOUTH
IN OK/TX PANHANDLES WHERE MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS STRONG. THUS
WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA...AND MAINTAIN OUR 30
PERCENT OR LESS POPS. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BELOW 850MB ONLY COOLS TOWARD
SNOW SIDE OF THINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS WANING LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO LOSE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND CURRENT EXITING WAVE AND IS REINFORCED
BY MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WAVE/FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND
CURRENT IMPULSE...BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LATEST HRRR CLOUD
FORECAST SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SPILL SOUTH. THUS
HAVE HIGHS IN OUR NORTHEAST ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH MID
50S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD OFFSET LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO KEEP HIGHS MONDAY NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY.
THEN A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS
OFFSETTING COOL ADVECTION SOMEWHAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF EXCITEMENT IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR
LOWS. SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW NOTED FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
AND OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THAT
FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS PATTERN INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE 850 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY
TOO MUCH FROM THE 5 TO 10C BELOW RANGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH SURGES ABOVE AND BELOW THAT RANGE WILL OCCUR WITH PASSING
IMPULSES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW WITH MAIN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVES/FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
GENERALLY WEAK STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO MOV ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT KOFK/KOMA PRIOR TO 12Z.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE CIGS LOWER AND MAY BE MVFR FOR A TIME WITH THE
-RA...BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT
CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOV THE TAF SITES ON SUN EVNG AND MAY ALLOW FOR A
LOWER CIG DECK TO MOV BACK INTO THE TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOWER AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY. THIS MORNINGS UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE HAD A PWAT OF 0.21 INCHES. MODELS DO
MOISTEN THE MID AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE SOME THIS EVENING...AND WITH
THE DECENT LIFT...HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AREA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN. RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN WITHIN THIS BAND AT
ONEILL THE SOUNDING IS ABOVE FREEZING UP THROUGH 850MB...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAWN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES BY SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WARMUP IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING THROUGH COLORADO INTO KANSAS. STILL KEPT
NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF FA MONDAY NIGHT AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING TO PSBL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BACK TO RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS PSBL TUESDAY.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WRN NEBRASKA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER AIR FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE COLDER AIR
COULD CAUSE AN ADJUSTMENT TO COLDER HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS WARMER AIR
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES. BRIEF WARMUPS BETWEEN PASSING COLD FRONTS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
FOR THE LBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 20000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL
LEAD TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AGL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...SKIES WILL CLEAR.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
222 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WITH STRONG
SUPPORT ALOFT STREAKS QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COOLER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 UPDATE...HELD OFF TIMING OF THE RAINFALL ARRIVAL A COUPLE
HOURS BASED ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z. I ALSO EXPANDED THE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK AS WELL.
830 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY...AND LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOKS. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALSO ELECTED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING. WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEEDS EXPANDED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES...BUT FOR NOW...STUCK MAINLY TO
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS IN SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.
630 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS PER
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM TRYING TO PLACE MORE
FOCUS/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH IN OUR OHIO COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND...BUT APPEARS NAM MAY BE AN OUTLIER
AT THIS POINT. IF HEAVIER PRECIP DOES DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...FFG IS A BIT HIGHER THERE...SO A WATCH MAY
STILL NOT BE NECESSARY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST MODEL UPDATES
AND UPDATE THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE MASS FIELDS...AND NOT TOO BAD ON
THE QPF EITHER...IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...BEFORE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
BE A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND INSTABILITY IS MODEST...DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. GOOD UPPER JET
COUPLING...MODERATE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET...PW`S AOA 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...SOME TRAINING ALONG THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT...ALL POINT HEAVY RAINS FOR ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD. QPF AROUND
AN INCH OR MORE IN THIS TIME PERIOD...COMBINED WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES...PROMPTS AN ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. THE WATCH WILL GO FROM 10Z-21Z
SUNDAY. COORDINATED WITH WPC ON THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...PRECIP MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST AND DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR RAINS TO END OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASE IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW A STRONG COLD SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT
WITH A MODEST INCREASE DURING SUNDAY FOR MAXES...BEFORE FALLING
LATER IN THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS..A MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET. TUESDAY MAY HAVE A PRE FRONTAL WAVE BRING
PRECIP TO AREA...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS MODELS SEEM TO BE FLIP
FLOPPING ON THIS FEATURE. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETS THE
STAGE FOR A WELL ORGANIZED AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTROID TO
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO BROAD NATURE AND
ENHANCED DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE WATER ISSUES.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS 850 JET MISSES OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE
EAST...BUT THIS FEATURE MAY HELP INJECT SOME EXTRA MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY SPILL OVER INTO OUR EASTERN MTN COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIPPED YET AGAIN FOR THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM...AT LEAST BOTH HAVE TRENDED IN THE SAME DIRECTION...AND ITS
TOWARDS A FAIRLY COMMON STORM TRACK FOR THE REGION. THIS LENDS SOME
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY INCONSISTENT STRETCH
FOR THE MODELS. UNFORTUNATELY...TIMING IS STILL OFF BY 6-12 HOURS
BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SYNOPTICALLY...HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WARM WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES/LOWLANDS...LEADING TO
MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES...AND WILL INSERT A MENTION FOR WATER CONCERNS INTO
THE HWO. THE EASTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PLACES LIKE MARLINTON
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...SO WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW/SLEET INSTEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN...BUT COULD BE A FINE LINE. ALSO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CLOUDY THE PICTURE A BIT IN REGARDS TO
PTYPE FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE
GRADUAL A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND 500MB RIPPLES SLIDING
THROUGH. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
CALM BEFORE THE STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z.
HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEADING TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH...SO BY THIS AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER HOWEVER IN
MOUNTAINS/EASTERN COUNTIES LONGER.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GENERALLY IN
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST AND ALSO STILL TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...SO LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/21/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M L L L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L L L L L
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>009-
013>020-026>032-036>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ083-085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO SUNDAY. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WITH STRONG
SUPPORT ALOFT STREAKS QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY. COOLER WITH A LULL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE RAIN AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215 UPDATE...HELD OFF TIMING OF THE RAINFALL ARRIVAL A COUPLE
HOURS BASED ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z. I ALSO EXPANDED THE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK AS WELL.
830 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY...AND LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOKS. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALSO ELECTED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING. WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEEDS EXPANDED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES...BUT FOR NOW...STUCK MAINLY TO
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS IN SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.
630 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS PER
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM TRYING TO PLACE MORE
FOCUS/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH IN OUR OHIO COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND...BUT APPEARS NAM MAY BE AN OUTLIER
AT THIS POINT. IF HEAVIER PRECIP DOES DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...FFG IS A BIT HIGHER THERE...SO A WATCH MAY
STILL NOT BE NECESSARY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST MODEL UPDATES
AND UPDATE THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE MASS FIELDS...AND NOT TOO BAD ON
THE QPF EITHER...IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...BEFORE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
BE A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND INSTABILITY IS MODEST...DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. GOOD UPPER JET
COUPLING...MODERATE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET...PW`S AOA 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...SOME TRAINING ALONG THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT...ALL POINT HEAVY RAINS FOR ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD. QPF AROUND
AN INCH OR MORE IN THIS TIME PERIOD...COMBINED WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES...PROMPTS AN ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. THE WATCH WILL GO FROM 10Z-21Z
SUNDAY. COORDINATED WITH WPC ON THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...PRECIP MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST AND DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR RAINS TO END OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASE IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW A STRONG COLD SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT
WITH A MODEST INCREASE DURING SUNDAY FOR MAXES...BEFORE FALLING
LATER IN THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS..A MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG DYNAMICS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE GONE BY 00Z...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
SO THE LINGERING LIGHTER RAINS DECREASE 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY IN THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A NORTH FLOW OF COLDER AIR CAUSING
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HAVE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WANING...BUT LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHERE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT
DAWN MONDAY OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN...COULD BE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
A LULL BETWEEN STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND A WAVE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...DID SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR
EASTERN SLOPES AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY...TRIED TO KEEP THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIPPED YET AGAIN FOR THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM...AT LEAST BOTH HAVE TRENDED IN THE SAME DIRECTION...AND ITS
TOWARDS A FAIRLY COMMON STORM TRACK FOR THE REGION. THIS LENDS SOME
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY INCONSISTENT STRETCH
FOR THE MODELS. UNFORTUNATELY...TIMING IS STILL OFF BY 6-12 HOURS
BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SYNOPTICALLY...HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WARM WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES/LOWLANDS...LEADING TO
MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES...AND WILL INSERT A MENTION FOR WATER CONCERNS INTO
THE HWO. THE EASTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PLACES LIKE MARLINTON
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...SO WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW/SLEET INSTEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN...BUT COULD BE A FINE LINE. ALSO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CLOUDY THE PICTURE A BIT IN REGARDS TO
PTYPE FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE
GRADUAL A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND 500MB RIPPLES SLIDING
THROUGH. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
CALM BEFORE THE STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z.
HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...LEADING TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH...SO BY THIS AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER HOWEVER IN
MOUNTAINS/EASTERN COUNTIES LONGER.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GENERALLY IN
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST AND ALSO STILL TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...SO LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/21/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>009-013>020-026>032-036>040-046-
047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ083-085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAF PD. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD
12Z. CIGS WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY AS WELL. VSBYS WILL...FOR THE
MOST PART...HOLD IN THE 3SM-6SM RANGE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD...AFT 00Z.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RADAR AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF AIRPORTS TODAY...BUT ANY IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS
DIRECTLY APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL REMOVE VCSH MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING AT BNA/CSV. -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........XXI
LONG TERM..................07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1138 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
BY EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH COLDER WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM EST SATURDAY...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
BASICALLY REMOVED FROM THE STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE JUST OFF TO
THE SOUTH. EVENING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE BELOW THIS
LEVEL WHERE THE FLOW REMAINS MORE FROM THE SW. HOWEVER APPEARS
THIS REMAINS TOO SHALLOW TO RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW CLOUD CANOPY NOW OVER THE FAR SW
SECTIONS SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NE UNDER THE INVERSION...AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING LIFT UNDER THE
UPSTREAM WAVE PERHAPS CAUSES A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS TO WORK INTO
THE NW AROUND DAWN PER LATEST HRRR MODEL. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT AS SPOTS WILL QUICKLY GO
FROM CLEAR TO LOW CANOPY ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE WHICH MAY BE
EVEN SLOWER. COULD EVEN SEE SOME FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
REGION AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES SO INCLUDED AS WELL. MADE
SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTS TO LOW TEMPS DESPITE A LONGER PERIOD
OF SEEING CLEAR SKIES AS EXPECT DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO HOLD LOWS
UP IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AS WELL.
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST NEW
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CLIPPING THE FAR
NORTHWEST TIER OF COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THERE IS STRONG FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A
GOOD DOSE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. THE LATEST NOHRSC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN THIS LOCATION WHICH IS HOLDING A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF LIQUID. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM
MELTING SNOW IS A HYDRO CONCERN SO A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY. BUFKIT SHOWS STEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY AS WELL SO SOME THUNDER CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARMING ALOFT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MID/UPPER 50S TO THE WEST. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES START TO FALL AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST SATURDAY...
PASSING LOW WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BRING
SHOWERS TO AN END. A BRIEF UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE WEST. COLDER AIR LAGS TO OUR NORTH SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SFC FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TO EAST HEADING INTO
MONDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHEAST U.S. MODELS HINT AT KEEPING LOW LVL
MOISTURE SITUATED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH POTENTIAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE PIEDMONT. ATTM
LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE INTENSIFIES WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTH TX...WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...BUT
MORESO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. LOW LVL TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH BUT SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR POSSIBLY FZRA IN THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH AS THE
HIGH RETREATS TUESDAY AND PRECIP INCREASES THE WEDGE REMAINS...BUT
TEMPS WARM AT ALL LEVELS ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THE EASTERN CWA TO SEE BETTER THREAT OF RAIN TUESDAY AS SE
FLOW OVERRUNS COASTAL FRONT. MAIN SYSTEM LAGS BEHIND OVER TX/LA. THE
12Z GFS IS SIMILAR AT THE SFC AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE ECMWF INTO
TUESDAY BUT FAVORS LESS PRECIP TUESDAY. ATTM...STILL LOOKS LIKE NO
MORE THAN A HALF INCH IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT-TUESDAY IN THE EAST WITH
AROUND TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE WEST VIRGINIA MTNS.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
PIEDMONT...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS. WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING
TO OUR NORTH MONDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE
AREA...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL COULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH IF IT CLEARS OUT SOME. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 50S PIEDMONT TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS FALL WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...TO THE 30S...BUT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO RISE AT LEAST IN THE WEDGE TUESDAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE EAST AND INTO THE ALLEGHANYS TO GREENBRIER VALLEY. THE MILDEST
AREA WILL BE WEST OF A RICHLANDS TO CHILHOWIE LINE WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EST SATURDAY...
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY WERE STILL
FAVORING MORE OF A RAIN EVENT TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARM 8H
AIR RIDES UP AND OVER IN SITU WEDGE. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS IT COULD BE JUST COULD ENOUGH
FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE ALLEGHANYS INTO SE WV AND NORTH OF
LYH. HOWEVER...THREAT OF SNOW WILL BE LEFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM....BUT LOOKS LIKE COLDER AIR WILL SWING RAIN BACK TO SNOW TO
SNOW SHOWERS HEADING INTO LATE WED NIGHT-THU...SO SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
RAIN EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING
OF RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEADLINED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECM AND
ENSEMBLES TAKING THIS SYSTEM OUT.
THEN LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LVL JET ROUNDS THE TROUGH WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING SOME WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO THE MTNS.
WE SHOULD BE COLDER AND DRIER TOWARD SATURDAY THOUGH GFS SLINGING
ANOTHER CLIPPER OUR SATURDAY. THIS IS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW GIVEN ECM
AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER.
AS FOR TEMPS WENT COOLER THAN MOS ON WEDNESDAY AS THINK WEDGE WILL
BE SHALLOW BUT ENHANCED BY RAINFALL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF
HEAVIER RAINS SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
WENT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE MTNS AS STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AS 8H TEMPS FALL FROM ZERO TO -6C.
TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE 30S TO 40S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST SATURDAY...
DECREASING CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...RETURN FLOW OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS DETERIORATION IN FLYING
CONDITIONS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN CURRENT DRY AIR AND IDEA THAT MODELS
HAVE BEEN TOO WET IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. STILL APPEARS THAT SITES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STAY VFR UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TREND TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW TO THE SOUTHWEST ARRIVES LATE. WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE EXPECTING MOISTURE TO ARRIVE SOONER WITH A QUICK DOWNTURN IN
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG/DZ BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THUS CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE PICS BUT ONCE
IT ARRIVES WILL SEE A QUICK DETERIORATION TO SUB-VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL JET EAST ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AROUND KLWB
DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS AXIS SWINGING SOUTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BANDS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT WAY TOO IFFY TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...AND DRIVES CIGS
INTO MVFR/IFR LEVELS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MVFR TO OCNL IFR VSBYS
IN THE RAIN/FOG.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
WELL TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CIGS
ALONG WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE LIKELY TO LINGER AS THE WEDGE DEVELOPS.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LOOKS TO
NUDGE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST WEST OF
THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED POSSIBLY BRINGING VERY POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...LOW CLOUDS/CIGS/VSBYS
AND HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WED NIGHT...PRECIP WILL
TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR INTO THURSDAY
MOUNTAINS...WHILE IMPROVING TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM MAKING FOR
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
VAZ019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
12Z SOUNDING HAS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR FROM 900-580MB WITH THE
DRIEST LAYER 880-850MB. TRENDS FROM THE RAP AT THE 295K SFC
GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE VIRGA ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
THE AREA WITH ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND STILL WELL WEST
OF I-35. RAP TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FORCING WEAKENING DURING
THE MORNING WITH LITTLE IF ANY FORCING ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
MORE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN INSTEAD OF FLURRIES/SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW ALONG THE BORDERS OF THE DAKOTAS SOUTH
OF KBIS. A FRONT RAN EAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
RADARS SHOW PLENTY OF RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. THESE RETURNS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND. THUS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EVAPORATING PRIOR TO REACHING THE SURFACE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA TODAY
AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THIS
WEAKENING TREND COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTS
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT...QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER WITH GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH WEAK ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN AREA WHERE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS. TYPICAL NORMAL MINOR BIASES OF DIURNAL
RANGES SUGGESTED WITH DAYS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY
HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL AND MINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
FAIR SKIES TENDING TO BE A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD IN COLD DRAINAGE
AREAS.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ONCE AGAIN ARE GOOD WITH
AMERICAN SOLUTIONS TOO MOIST IN BL AS EVIDENCED BY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION ONGOING IN THE PLAINS. THIS CONFIRMS LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OR REMOVAL OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THIS
FLOW PATTERN. REVIEW OF RUN TO RUN OR INTER RUN CHANGES ARE MINOR
BECAUSE OF THIS FLOW PATTERN. HENCE A DEFAULT MIX OF 50/50 HI-RES
ECMWF/GFS REMAINS A GOOD STARTING REFERENCE POINT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN BREEZY NORTH WINDS AS STORM PASSES TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS EACH DAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
EACH DAY. MINS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES CAN`T BE RULED BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
AND DOWNWARD MOTION OR SUBSIDENCE WOULD RESULT IN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLDER WITH FAIR TO MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE UPPER MIDWEST. BLUSTERY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND MINS IN THE 15 TO
25 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY COLDER MINS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/21 AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS IOWA. AFT 18Z/21 A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. AFT 00Z/22 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
952 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THIS MORNING...MAY TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE FOR THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS TO SHOW UP. 12Z UA DATA SHOWING AN
APPRECIABLE DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT NEEDS TO BE
ERODED AND WILL BE BY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
PRETTY MUCH A SHOWERY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS...HOWEVER IT IS ALSO SHOWING A FEW DEEPER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
POCKETS OF CELLULAR MAUL IN THE H85-H5 LAYER. SO...SOME INTERMITTENT
THUNDER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE./26/
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THE STRATUS DECK WILL AGAIN LOWER ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT./15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT
SLOWER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ENCOMPASS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AIDING THIS MOISTENING
PROCESS...INITIALLY NOT REACHING THE SURFACE THROUGH THE LOW/MID DRY
LAYER. OVERNIGHT WE`VE SEEN QUITE A FEW MORE REPORTS OF RAIN REACHING
THE GROUND, WITH SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES TRACING ALONG THE US 82
CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT REMAINS SITUATED WELL NW OF THE AREA FROM OK
THROUGH SOUTHERN MO AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED RAMP UP IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL COME
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THE GREATEST RAIN/
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL REACH THE DELTA BY LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AROUND THE I-20 CORRIDOR, REMAINING STALLED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THERE WILL BE A BIT OF
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE INITIAL JET MAX/DISTURBANCE EXITING
EASTWARD AND A NEW JET MAX AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE ORGANIZING TO
THE WEST. /DL/
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MAIN IMPACT WEATHER OF
THE LONG TERM WILL COME TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE ARKLAMISS REGION. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S.
OFF TO OUR WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A LULL
IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY COULD BE LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
DEEPEN AS IT DOES. THERE REMAINS SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BUT OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE RATHER SMALL. AS
THIS SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS ARKANSAS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO
AND THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS REGION. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP BRING AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA. MODELS
ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH HOW FAR NORTH THESE 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS SOLUTIONS. MU CAPE IS FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 400-700 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 TO
7 C/KM. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA AND DEEPENS...WINDS
WILL RESPOND AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AROUND 35-
40 KTS OF LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND NEAR 55 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PRESENT. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TRACK UP THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE
STORMS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...AND WITH COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT OUT A LIMITED SEVERE RISK FOR THIS
PERIOD IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS.
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE CWA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING(IF NOT SOONER). SOME MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH BROAD TROUGHING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
COOLER WEATHER TO RESUME WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE
60S. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 72 60 61 52 / 54 88 88 43
MERIDIAN 73 61 65 53 / 30 84 87 62
VICKSBURG 74 56 59 52 / 69 89 86 36
HATTIESBURG 75 62 68 56 / 22 62 82 54
NATCHEZ 74 60 62 54 / 57 90 88 34
GREENVILLE 70 52 57 46 / 61 66 67 29
GREENWOOD 68 53 59 49 / 70 69 68 29
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TO TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS ROLLING EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS. A NICE CURL WAS NOTED IN RADAR RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...TIED TO VORT CENTER SPINNING EAST. LATEST
HI-RES MODEL ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A STEADY PROGRESSION TO THIS
PRECIPITATION TO EAST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN ALL RAIN AS OF YET...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SUNRISE SHOW NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE BELOW
850 RIGHT AROUND 0C...SUGGESTING RAIN OR SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE SHORT DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SNOW.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A CHUNK OF ENERGY ROTATES SOUTH AROUND DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. A QUICK SHOT OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WHEN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTER OUR
AREA...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALONG 290K THETA SURFACE IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z TUESDAY...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA IN A
MINIMUM OF OVERALL QG FORCING...SHOWING MAXIMUM WELL TO THE SOUTH
IN OK/TX PANHANDLES WHERE MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS STRONG. THUS
WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA...AND MAINTAIN OUR 30
PERCENT OR LESS POPS. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BELOW 850MB ONLY COOLS TOWARD
SNOW SIDE OF THINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS WANING LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO LOSE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND CURRENT EXITING WAVE AND IS REINFORCED
BY MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WAVE/FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND
CURRENT IMPULSE...BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LATEST HRRR CLOUD
FORECAST SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SPILL SOUTH. THUS
HAVE HIGHS IN OUR NORTHEAST ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH MID
50S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD OFFSET LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO KEEP HIGHS MONDAY NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY.
THEN A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS
OFFSETTING COOL ADVECTION SOMEWHAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF EXCITEMENT IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR
LOWS. SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW NOTED FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
AND OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THAT
FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS PATTERN INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE 850 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY
TOO MUCH FROM THE 5 TO 10C BELOW RANGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH SURGES ABOVE AND BELOW THAT RANGE WILL OCCUR WITH PASSING
IMPULSES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW WITH MAIN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVES/FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE LIFTING AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY RETURN AFTER 03Z
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
937 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL TIMING OF
THIS PRECIPITATION IS CAPTURED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...AND POPS
HAD TO BE EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH RAIN STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CLEARING THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 1PM.
THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS LOOSENED
CONSIDERABLY...BUT FAVORING THE COOLER SIDE OF THE PREVIOUS
SPREAD...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
LARGE BREAK IN THE OVERCAST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. DESPITE
THESE CHALLENGES...THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO
BE ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A H5 S/W MOVING EWD THROUGH THE FAST H5 FLOW AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING
THE BULK OF THE PCPN QUICKLY EWD THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF MODELS
TRY AND LINGER PCPN INTO THE AFTN IN THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PREFER TO GO WITH THE QUICKER
SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE THE FA DRY BY 18Z.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN NRN KY. ALSO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND REBOUND IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE WARM START IN THE SE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT THERE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT. NEAR NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EXTREME NORTH
TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGENCE IN THEIR HANDLING OF H5
ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. GFS IS
THE QUICKEST IN SPREADING PCPN NRN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE SFC LOW AND THE PCPN FARTHER S. WENT A BLEND
AND BROUGHT LOW POPS UP INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS IS QUICKER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND PCPN...WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING THE SLOWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND THE ECMWF...TRY
TO LOWER CRITICAL THICKNESSES IN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY RAN A MODEL BLEND WHICH
KEPT THE SNOW CHANCE JUST TO THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW EJECTS NE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WED AND THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AND TRACKS NE INTO THE REGION. GFS 00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLN
WAS TAKING THIS LOW THRU IN AND EXTREME NW OHIO WED NIGHT BUT HAS
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN TAKES THE LOW THRU ILN/S FA. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN IS EVEN FURTHER EAST THAN ECMWF. WITH SUCH A
SPREAD WILL FOLLOW A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SE.
WILL HAVE RAIN IN THE SE AND A MIX ACRS ENTIRE FA BY MORNING.
WILL THEN RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
FORCING IS ENHANCED BY H8 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 45-50 KT LLJ.
DUE TO WAA WILL HAVE ENTIRE REGION CHANGE TO RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA
AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO SE CANADA. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH THURSDAY AFTN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY OFFERING COLD
BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A MINOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING E AND AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW LINGERING BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY STILL AFFECT KCVG/KLUK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BUT SHOULD BE
VFR OUTSIDE OF A CORE PASSING OVER THE TERMINAL SITE WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED. ANY LOWER CIGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO BE VFR THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...A SHOT OF COLD AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CROSS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION AND LIKELY BRING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG AND COULD CONDENSE A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AOA 1KFT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A VERY MILD SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK
INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE BEHIND THIS FRONT TODAY INTO MONDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TRANQUIL WEATHER ON MONDAY.
STORMY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PLAIN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
POTENT AND MOISTURE LADEN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS /COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS/ WERE HELPING TO MIX THE LOWEST 1 KFT OR SO
EARLY TODAY...CAUSING THE MILD TEMPS IN THE 40S TO HANG ON BY A
THREAD ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH PORTION OF THE SUSQ VALLEY HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND CAUSING TEMPS TO DIVE
INTO THE U20S AND LOWER 30S.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY...AS MODELS ARE MISSING THE
TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS...WEAK LLVL COLD ADVECTION...AND
TEMPS STARTING OUT AT QUITE CHILLY LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA.
A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF KUNV...TO KIPT AND
KFIG AT 10Z... AND THI S BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
LOWER OHIO AND MID MISS VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WVA AND CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF
STEADY PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR
SRN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PA TURNPIKE. LATEST SVRL RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF A KAOO TO KABE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS COLDER AIR EDGES SOUTH ACROSS PA TONIGHT...925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE WAVE
SCOOTS EAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND ON
COLDER GRASSY AREAS/ TONIGHT WILL BE WELL UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP ENDS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NWRN PENN...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER TH REST OF CENTRAL AND
SERN PENN. &&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY/MON NIGHT - NO TROUBLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AS IT
SLIDES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND CONTINUING INTO
THE MARITIMES. AND...MORE IMPORTANTLY...IT KEEPS ON TRUCKIN.
THUS...THE LATEST STORM OF THE CENTURY SEEMS TO BE GETTING WARMER
AND WARMER WITH TIME. LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUES NIGHT.
MOST/ALL OF TUES SEEMS DRY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE SOME DZ /OR AN OUTSIDE CHC OF FZDZ/ ON TUES AFTN AS DEEP ERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PILE CLOUDS UP OVER CENTRAL PA.
BUT...WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUES W/IN A FEW DEGS OF 40F. THIS COULD
BE TOO WARM IF THOSE CLOUDS DO THICKEN UP AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST.
MORE CERTAIN /AS CERTAIN AS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW/ IS THAT PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUES NIGHT. HAVE KEPT 60 POPS FOR SOME
OF THE AREA. BUT...DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER - IT BEING DAY4-5
AND ALL. WE HAVE SEEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE SWUNG TO AND FRO FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT THE VARIOUS SOLNS WILL CHANGE
MORE BEFORE ANYTHING FALLS FROM THE SKY. PRECIP COULD START OUT
AS --SN OR AT LEAST A LIGHT MIX LATE TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE
FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND A DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST -
BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. IT LOOKS WARMER ON THE WHOLE THAN
PREV SOLNS. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON
WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS AND LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW
NORMALS FOR LATE FEB.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY/MON NIGHT - NO TROUBLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AS IT
SLIDES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND CONTINUING INTO
THE MARITIMES. AND...MORE IMPORTANTLY...IT KEEPS ON TRUCKIN.
THUS...THE LATEST STORM OF THE CENTURY SEEMS TO BE GETTING WARMER
AND WARMER WITH TIME. LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUES NIGHT.
MOST/ALL OF TUES SEEMS DRY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE SOME DZ /OR AN OUTSIDE CHC OF FZDZ/ ON TUES AFTN AS DEEP ERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PILE CLOUDS UP OVER CENTRAL PA.
BUT...WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUES W/IN A FEW DEGS OF 40F. THIS COULD
BE TOO WARM IF THOSE CLOUDS DO THICKEN UP AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST.
MORE CERTAIN /AS CERTAIN AS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW/ IS THAT PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUES NIGHT. HAVE KEPT 60 POPS FOR SOME
OF THE AREA. BUT...DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER - IT BEING DAY4-5
AND ALL. WE HAVE SEEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE SWUNG TO AND FRO FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT THE VARIOUS SOLNS WILL CHANGE
MORE BEFORE ANYTHING FALLS FROM THE SKY. PRECIP COULD START OUT
AS --SN OR AT LEAST A LIGHT MIX LATE TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE
FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND A DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST -
BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. IT LOOKS WARMER ON THE WHOLE THAN
PREV SOLNS. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON
WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS AND LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW
NORMALS FOR LATE FEB.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER ALL OF PA AND LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTH
WESTERN CORNER OF PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT JST AND AOO THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUING AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE MASON
DIXON. BY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 18Z TO 21Z...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SHOULD BRING MVFR TO JST...AOO...MDT AND LNS. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR MDT AND LNS...AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 09Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR CIGS POSS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
TUE...REDUCTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW.
WED...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
553 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A VERY MILD SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK
INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE BEHIND THIS FRONT TODAY INTO MONDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TRANQUIL WEATHER ON MONDAY.
STORMY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PLAIN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
POTENT AND MOISTURE LADEN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS /COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS/ WERE HELPING TO MIX THE LOWEST 1 KFT OR SO
EARLY TODAY...CAUSING THE MILD TEMPS IN THE 40S TO HANG ON BY A
THREAD ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM AIR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH PORTION OF THE SUSQ VALLEY HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND CAUSING TEMPS TO DIVE
INTO THE U20S AND LOWER 30S.
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST TODAY...AS MODELS ARE MISSING THE
TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS...WEAK LLVL COLD ADVECTION...AND
TEMPS STARTING OUT AT QUITE CHILLY LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA.
A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF KUNV...TO KIPT AND
KFIG AT 10Z... AND THI S BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
LOWER OHIO AND MID MISS VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WVA AND CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF
STEADY PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR
SRN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PA TURNPIKE. LATEST SVRL RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF A KAOO TO KABE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS COLDER AIR EDGES SOUTH ACROSS PA TONIGHT...925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE WAVE
SCOOTS EAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /AND ON
COLDER GRASSY AREAS/ TONIGHT WILL BE WELL UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP ENDS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NWRN PENN...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER TH REST OF CENTRAL AND
SERN PENN. &&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY/MON NIGHT - NO TROUBLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AS IT
SLIDES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND CONTINUING INTO
THE MARITIMES. AND...MORE IMPORTANTLY...IT KEEPS ON TRUCKIN.
THUS...THE LATEST STORM OF THE CENTURY SEEMS TO BE GETTING WARMER
AND WARMER WITH TIME. LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUES NIGHT.
MOST/ALL OF TUES SEEMS DRY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE SOME DZ /OR AN OUTSIDE CHC OF FZDZ/ ON TUES AFTN AS DEEP ERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY PILE CLOUDS UP OVER CENTRAL PA.
BUT...WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUES W/IN A FEW DEGS OF 40F. THIS COULD
BE TOO WARM IF THOSE CLOUDS DO THICKEN UP AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST.
MORE CERTAIN /AS CERTAIN AS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW/ IS THAT PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUES NIGHT. HAVE KEPT 60 POPS FOR SOME
OF THE AREA. BUT...DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER - IT BEING DAY4-5
AND ALL. WE HAVE SEEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE SWUNG TO AND FRO FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT THE VARIOUS SOLNS WILL CHANGE
MORE BEFORE ANYTHING FALLS FROM THE SKY. PRECIP COULD START OUT
AS --SN OR AT LEAST A LIGHT MIX LATE TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE
FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND A DRY SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST -
BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER. IT LOOKS WARMER ON THE WHOLE THAN
PREV SOLNS. TEMPS REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON
WED AND HOLD THERE UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS AND LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW
NORMALS FOR LATE FEB.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REIGON OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT IS MAINLY DRY. THE MAIN MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF
PA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT JST AND BFD BY 15Z. A
SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE MASON DIXON AND PERHAPS AFFECT
MDT...LNS AND JST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR CIGS POSS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
TUE...REDUCTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW.
WED...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
436 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MORE SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FORM THE SOUTH.
A STRONGER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FORCE THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL HEAD NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT NOTED WITH LATEST NWP MODEL SUITE...ALONG WITH
QUICK LAST MINUTE LOOK AT RAP AND HRRR. SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PASSES SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND FAST MOVING UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY DEPARTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SHARP
GRADIENT TO THE RAIN...AND THUS POPS TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE NW ZONES TO CATEGORICAL CSTL ZONES.
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS A MOS BLEND GENERALLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT 20S WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST...WITH IMPRESSIVE ENERGY OUT WEST
CARVING OUT DEEPER TROUGH UPSTREAM THIS TIME FRAME.
IN THE MEANTIME...CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY
WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NE...APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COMBO OF SFC COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
SPIN UP A WEAK LOW E OF HATTERAS ON TUE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. P-TYPE BASED ON
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO START...
THEN AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...AND MIX WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN TUE NIGHT INLAND. WINTRY PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE EXPECTED.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN INLAND DURING WED MORNING.
AS THIS WEAK LOW MOVES EAST AND AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES INTO THE
OH VALLEY...A WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT CLOSER TO THE
AREA...WITH A STEADY MODERATE RAIN REDEVELOPING ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...THEN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH...STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW TRANSPORTS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PW NEARING 1.5 INCHES...
AND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH STRONG
FORCING ALOFT TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...COULD BE LOOKING AT A
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER THIS WEEK...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
HEAVY RAIN BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...WITH TIMING
ANYWHERE FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING PER SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ECMWF TIMING. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE 40S ON WED AND THEN INTO THE 50S WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING.
STEADY/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT OFF AFTER COLD FROPA AS
DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SW...BUT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING
SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLD-SCT RAIN
SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLD SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS THU NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
MAINLY DRY LATER THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH BRISK CONDS AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN AVG TEMPS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
PASS OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE TERMINALS (EXCEPT KSWF) THIS
EVENING.
THE HIGH CIRRUS CEILING LOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINS SOLID
VFR. RAIN ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FALL TO MARGINAL VFR BY LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY DUE
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECT AT
THIS TIME.
WIND LIGHTENS SOME MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION.
VFR RETURNS ALL TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. NICE FLYING WX ON
MONDAY...BEST OF THE WEEK.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE AFTN...VFR. LGT N SFC WIND MON AFTN...E 15-20 KT
TUE.
.MON NGT-WED NGT...BECOMING MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN. NE SFC WND
VEERING SE WED AFTN AND INCREASING WITH GUSTS 35 KT ALONG COAST.
STRONG LLWS/COMPRESSION LIKELY.
.THU...MVFR TO IFR IN RA...IMPROVING LATE. SW SFC WND 15-20 KT
INCREASING LATE DAY WITH GUSTS 35 KT AT NIGHT.
.FRI...VFR. W SFC WND GUST 35 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE WATERS. AS SUCH...WILL CANCEL
THE INITIAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
INCREASE BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALREADY
ELEVATED SEAS DUE TO SWELL BUILD ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...WILL ISSUE A NEW SCA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING E FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW/WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN
SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN FROM TUE INTO WED. WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT
SE-S WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AND INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN...ERN SOUND AND BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND...AND STRONG SCA CONDS ON THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND.
BRISK POST-FRONTAL W FLOW SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN SCA CONDS ON THE
OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND LATER THU INTO FRI EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
PRECIP AS A WAVE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TUE
AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...
WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SOME OF THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...MAINLY INLAND.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BRING ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THIS HAS
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE FOCUSED
MORE FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS WILL BE THE
CASE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEMP/DEW POINT SENSOR AT KMMK /MERIDEN CT/ IS ERRONEOUS AND HAS
BEEN TURNED OFF.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
335 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY. THE LOW WEAKENS
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT NOTED WITH LATEST NWP MODEL SUITE...ALONG WITH
QUICK LAST MINUTE LOOK AT RAP AND HRRR. SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PASSES SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND FAST MOVING UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY DEPARTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SHARP
GRADIENT TO THE RAIN...AND THUS POPS TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE NW ZONES TO CATEGORICAL CSTL ZONES.
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS A MOS BLEND GENERALLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT 20S WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST...WITH IMPRESSIVE ENERGY OUT WEST
CARVING OUT DEEPER TROUGH UPSTREAM THIS TIME FRAME.
IN THE MEANTIME...CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY
WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
REGARDING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WED. FIRST...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTH...THINK LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING VIA PERSISTENT E-NE MARITIME FLOW WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND ITS LEADING WARM FRONT. TOP-DOWN P-TYPE
METHOD SUGGESTS EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN GIVEN LACK OF
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO AID IN ICE NUCLEATION...WHILE
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. AT THIS
EARLY STAGE IN THE GAME MENTIONED BOTH P-TYPES. THEN...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES IN ON SW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA
STRENGTHENS...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE PDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU AM AS A SFC WARM FRONT/LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT...THEN AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ECMWF EVEN LIFTS
WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH THU MORNING BEFORE COLD FROPA... WITH
ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
HEAVY/SQUALLY CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND BEFORE COLD FROPA. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE THROUGH THE 40S WED NIGHT AND THE INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S ON THU...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN THAT IF AREA
GETS IN WARM SECTOR.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN TO LEVELS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVG AFTER COLD FROPA FOR FRI-SAT...WITH GUSTY W-NW FLOW AND ALSO
CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPING SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FRI-FRI NIGHT...THEN
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ON SAT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
PASS OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE TERMINALS (EXCEPT KSWF) THIS
EVENING.
THE HIGH CIRRUS CEILING LOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINS SOLID
VFR. RAIN ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FALL TO MARGINAL VFR BY LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY DUE
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECT AT
THIS TIME.
WIND LIGHTENS SOME MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION.
VFR RETURNS ALL TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. NICE FLYING WX ON
MONDAY...BEST OF THE WEEK.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE AFTN...VFR. LGT N SFC WIND MON AFTN...E 15-20 KT
TUE.
.MON NGT-WED NGT...BECOMING MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN. NE SFC WND
VEERING SE WED AFTN AND INCREASING WITH GUSTS 35 KT ALONG COAST.
STRONG LLWS/COMPRESSION LIKELY.
.THU...MVFR TO IFR IN RA...IMPROVING LATE. SW SFC WND 15-20 KT
INCREASING LATE DAY WITH GUSTS 35 KT AT NIGHT.
.FRI...VFR. W SFC WND GUST 35 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE WATERS. AS SUCH...WILL CANCEL
THE INITIAL SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
INCREASE BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALREADY
ELEVATED SEAS DUE TO SWELL BUILD ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...WILL ISSUE A NEW SCA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A DEVELOPING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BUILD
OCEAN SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TO THE WEST WINDS
AND GUSTS INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BECOME
LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. IF A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY...THE
OCEAN COULD SEE GALES AND THE REMAINING WATERS AT LEAST SCA CONDS IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING DURING MID WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. THE PCPN SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. NUISANCE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY.
HEAVIEST RAIN ATTM EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEMP/DEW POINT SENSOR AT KMMK /MERIDEN CT/ IS ERRONEOUS AND HAS
BEEN TURNED OFF.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MAINLY
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CONFIGURATION HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE SATURDAY AND STILL OVERRIDES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE
SOME EVIDENCE OF SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS STREAM OVER
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TOWARD THE JET CORE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE VERY
MUCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE POSITION WILL KEEP OUR
GRADIENT LIGHT AND ALLOW SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
MIXING WORKS UP INTO A CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BELOW OUR CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 870MB. THE PAST
TWO DAYS HAVE SEEN MIXING THAT REACHED UP BEYOND THIS CAPPING
LAYER...AND SEE LITTLE REASON THIS WOULD NOT REPEAT TODAY.
THEREFORE...DEEP INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE
CUMULUS FIELDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ZONAL PATTERN CURRENTLY ALOFT WILL BECOME SLOWLY MORE
DISTURBED WITH TIME AS WE HEAD THROUGH THEN NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
PATTERN WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT (ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE) KEEPING OUR LOCAL WEATHER DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT BEGIN TO
EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD OUR REGION. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...THE ONLY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO FILTER AND THEN POTENTIALLY BLOCK THE SUN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH INSOLATION EARLIER IN THE DAY TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASY GET UP INTO THE 70S BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE WEAK...SO FEEBLE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TURN THE WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AFTER
1-2PM...AND COOL THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. VERY LATE IN THE
DAY...WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WEAK WARM FRONT ORGANIZING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD. SOME FAIRLY
DEEP LAYER UPGLIDE OVER THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH ARRIVING WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCE AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO SOME
ADDED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
FORCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS. NOTHING
WIDESPREAD OR ANYTHING...BUT HAVE PAINTED A 20-30% RAIN CHANCE
AFTER 20Z TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT MIGRATES INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THIS IS JUST THE FIRST PART OF A MULTI-STAGE SYSTEM THAT
WILL FINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
AN INITIAL PATTERN OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE GULF AND FL WILL DEEPEN
INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE MID OR LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU. THE UPPER LOW FORMS A
RATHER ROBUST ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION THAT DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF AND THROUGH FL TO THE ATLANTIC. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS FL WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FOR TUE AND TUE. INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
LIKELY SHOWERS AND CHANCE STORMS. THE BEST ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO STAY
ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GULF COAST AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT AND BECOME AROUND 20 KNOTS...WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON
COASTAL WATERS AND ALSO POSSIBLY AT THE BEACHES.
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SUN: THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA WITH TROUGHINESS TO THE SOUTH MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN STATES...WITH FLOW ALOFT THE
GULF AND FL SHIFTING FROM NEAR ZONAL TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE CANADAIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN OVER THE PLAINS THEN
SETTLES ACROSS THE GULF AND FL. A DRY STABLE AND COOL AIR MASS TAKES
CONTROL WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGHOUT WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 09Z AND MAINLY FOR
KLAL AND KPGD. ANY EARLY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT QUICKLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. ANTICIPATED WINDS
NEAR THE COAST TO SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLD CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFTS EAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...PREVENTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY INLAND.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL INCREASE NEAR THE SHORE AS
WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANY THREAT OF SEA FOG MOVING
ONSHORE WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 75 64 77 / 0 10 30 30
FMY 60 78 64 82 / 10 20 10 40
GIF 59 79 63 80 / 0 20 30 40
SRQ 58 71 61 76 / 0 10 20 30
BKV 54 77 59 80 / 0 10 30 40
SPG 61 73 64 77 / 0 10 30 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1219 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)... 17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. SOUTHERN STREAM
JET CONFIGURATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE SATURDAY AND STILL
OVERRIDES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS.
ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THIS STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE JET CORE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE VERY
MUCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE POSITION WILL KEEP OUR
GRADIENT LIGHT AND ALLOW SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
MIXING WORKS UP INTO A CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BELOW OUR CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 870MB. THE PAST
TWO DAYS HAVE SEEN MIXING THAT REACHED UP BEYOND THIS CAPPING
LAYER...AND SEE LITTLE REASON THIS WOULD NOT REPEAT TODAY.
THEREFORE...DEEP INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE
CUMULUS FIELDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
IF YOU HAVE STEPPED OUTSIDE RECENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
PLEASANT FOR FEBRUARY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE UP INTO THE 70S NOW.
WITH TIME...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL OBS BEGIN TO
TURN ONSHORE WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THIS OCCURS...THEN
SHOULD SEE TEMPS AT THE BEACHES DROP BACK AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES COMPARED TO SPOTS ONLY A FEW MILES INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGHOUT WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 09Z AND MAINLY FOR
KLAL AND KPGD. ANY EARLY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT QUICKLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING OR LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. ANTICIPATED WINDS
NEAR THE COAST TO SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND A SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 76 62 77 / 10 10 20 30
FMY 61 80 64 81 / 10 10 20 30
GIF 59 79 62 80 / 10 20 20 40
SRQ 57 75 61 75 / 10 10 20 20
BKV 50 79 57 79 / 10 10 20 40
SPG 61 76 63 75 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
205 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHED 50 OR MILDER ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND OWYHEE COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES...COOLER TEMPS /IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40/...LOWER SNOW LEVELS /AROUND 4500-5K FT MSL/...AND
ADVANCING CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAKENING
ZONE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SW OREGON. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AN AXIS FROM MCCALL THROUGH ONTARIO 8-10 PM
AND SW ID IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG
WITH HRRR INDICATES WEAKENING...BUT A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
ALONG I-84 SO HAVE KEPT A VERY LOW POP VALLEYS. QPF IN THE
MOUNTAIN IS ALSO STILL RATHER LOW WITH AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE MTNS
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR AN HOUR ON TWO ON THE
FRONT AND ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BUT CAPE
IS LOW AROUND 100 J/KG AND TIMING IS POOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY POST FRONTAL UPPER WINDS TURN W TO NW AND WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT ENOUGH FLOW AND MIXING FOR 15-25 MPH
WINDS /LOCALLY 30-40 MPH MUO-JER/ MONDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. A FEW MTN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG NW FLOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
ITS AXIS NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
EVENT IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW AND WEAKENING TO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PASSING
CLOUD COVER. PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ARRIVE
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH IT FURTHER OUT IN TIME
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON A WELL ESTABLISHED CHANGE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH SCT-BKN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BRIEF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS THAT ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22/01Z
22/15Z MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MTN OBSCURATION LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 6500 FT NEAR ID/NV BORDER, AND NEAR 4500 FT NEAR KBKE AND
KMYL. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 20-30 KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
300 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
THE FOG/STRATUS DEPARTED THE EASTERN ZONES BY NOON MST EARLIER TODAY.
THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WAS FROM NE MT JUST E OF KGGW...TO ND
JUST E OF KBHK AT 21Z. THE MET GUIDANCE AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWED THAT THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO KBHK TONIGHT SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KMLS SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN
PUSHING INTO WA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL REACH WESTERN MT BY 12Z MON AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE WEST BY 12Z. THE WAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING MON USHERING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS. STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT SHOWERS BETWEEN
KLVM AND KBIL. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
E OF KBIL. THE SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE NE BIGHORNS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TO THIS AREA. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S KNOTS RANGE ON MON SO EXPECT A BREEZY DAY BUT NO HIGH
WINDS. HARLOWTON SOUNDING SHOWED SOME 45 KT IN THE MIXING LAYER
EARLY ON MON SO HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON MON.
THE WAVE WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUE
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. TUE WILL
BE LESS WINDY THAN MON. A FLAT NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
TUE NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS. MODELS DROP A BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STALLED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
FLOW LOOKS QUITE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP...EVEN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO PRECIP POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE REGION.
INTRODUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MUCH LESS THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE FOOTHILLS
REGIONS...INCLUDING LIVINGSTON...AND BIG TIMBER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN EASTERN ZONES...INCLUDING
KBHK. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/050 029/049 028/047 028/049 031/056 031/053 031/048
11/N 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/B 22/W
LVM 029/044 024/042 023/046 027/050 031/054 032/053 033/047
22/W 11/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 01/N 33/W
HDN 027/052 026/050 025/048 024/049 027/055 027/054 027/048
02/W 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/B 22/W
MLS 027/050 026/047 026/045 023/043 026/051 025/048 026/044
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 11/N 10/B 12/W
4BQ 025/049 024/046 024/046 022/045 025/051 025/050 026/045
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 01/N 11/B 12/W
BHK 024/047 023/041 022/041 019/038 022/046 022/044 021/040
02/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/N 11/B
SHR 024/047 024/043 021/044 021/047 025/052 026/051 026/047
03/W 41/N 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 23/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
254 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
THE FOG/STRATUS DEPARTED THE EASTERN ZONES BY NOON MST EARLIER TODAY.
THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WAS FROM NE MT JUST E OF KGGW...TO ND
JUST E OF KBHK AT 21Z. THE MET GUIDANCE AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWED THAT THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO KBHK TONIGHT SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KMLS SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN
PUSHING INTO WA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
WILL REACH WESTERN MT BY 12Z MON AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE WEST BY 12Z. THE WAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING MON USHERING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS. STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT SHOWERS BETWEEN
KLVM AND KBIL. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
E OF KBIL. THE SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE NE BIGHORNS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TO THIS AREA. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S KNOTS RANGE ON MON SO EXPECT A BREEZY DAY BUT NO HIGH
WINDS. HARLOWTON SOUNDING SHOWED SOME 45 KT IN THE MIXING LAYER
EARLY ON MON SO HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON MON.
THE WAVE WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUE
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. TUE WILL
BE LESS WINDY THAN MON. A FLAT NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
TUE NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS. MODELS DROP A BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STALLED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
FLOW LOOKS QUITE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP...EVEN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO PRECIP POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE REGION.
INTRODUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MUCH LESS THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE FOOTHILLS
REGIONS...INCLUDING LIVINGSTON...AND BIG TIMBER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN EASTERN ZONES...INCLUDING
KBHK. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/050 029/047 027/047 027/050 031/055 032/054 034/053
11/N 11/B 00/U 11/B 11/U 11/U 11/B
LVM 031/044 024/042 024/045 028/051 031/053 033/053 033/052
12/J 11/B 00/U 11/B 11/U 11/N 12/W
HDN 028/052 026/048 025/048 024/050 027/055 028/054 031/053
01/N 11/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/U 11/B
MLS 028/050 026/046 025/045 023/045 027/051 026/049 028/048
01/N 11/B 00/U 00/B 11/N 11/B 11/B
4BQ 026/050 026/044 024/046 022/046 025/052 026/052 030/050
01/N 11/B 00/U 00/B 01/N 11/B 11/B
BHK 024/047 023/039 022/042 019/040 022/045 022/044 025/044
01/N 10/B 01/U 00/B 11/U 11/N 01/B
SHR 025/047 025/041 021/044 020/048 025/052 027/052 030/051
02/W 31/B 00/U 01/B 11/U 11/U 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TO TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS ROLLING EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...TRIGGERING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS. A NICE CURL WAS NOTED IN RADAR RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...TIED TO VORT CENTER SPINNING EAST. LATEST
HI-RES MODEL ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A STEADY PROGRESSION TO THIS
PRECIPITATION TO EAST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL IOWA COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN ALL RAIN AS OF YET...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SUNRISE SHOW NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE BELOW
850 RIGHT AROUND 0C...SUGGESTING RAIN OR SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE SHORT DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SNOW.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHEN ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A CHUNK OF ENERGY ROTATES SOUTH AROUND DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. A QUICK SHOT OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WHEN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTER OUR
AREA...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALONG 290K THETA SURFACE IS ADVERTISED BY GFS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z TUESDAY...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA IN A
MINIMUM OF OVERALL QG FORCING...SHOWING MAXIMUM WELL TO THE SOUTH
IN OK/TX PANHANDLES WHERE MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS STRONG. THUS
WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR AREA...AND MAINTAIN OUR 30
PERCENT OR LESS POPS. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER BELOW 850MB ONLY COOLS TOWARD
SNOW SIDE OF THINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS WANING LATER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO LOSE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND CURRENT EXITING WAVE AND IS REINFORCED
BY MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND MONDAY NIGHT WAVE/FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND
CURRENT IMPULSE...BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LATEST HRRR CLOUD
FORECAST SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SPILL SOUTH. THUS
HAVE HIGHS IN OUR NORTHEAST ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH MID
50S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD OFFSET LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO KEEP HIGHS MONDAY NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY.
THEN A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS
OFFSETTING COOL ADVECTION SOMEWHAT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF EXCITEMENT IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR
LOWS. SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW NOTED FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
AND OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THAT
FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS PATTERN INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE 850 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY
TOO MUCH FROM THE 5 TO 10C BELOW RANGE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH SURGES ABOVE AND BELOW THAT RANGE WILL OCCUR WITH PASSING
IMPULSES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW WITH MAIN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVES/FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
GENERALLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BECOMING
SOLIDLY MVFR THROUGH TIME. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME IFR AT KOMA
LATE IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1229 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL TIMING OF
THIS PRECIPITATION IS CAPTURED WELL IN RECENT HRRR RUNS...AND POPS
HAD TO BE EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH RAIN STILL EXPECTED
TO BE CLEARING THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 1PM.
THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS LOOSENED
CONSIDERABLY...BUT FAVORING THE COOLER SIDE OF THE PREVIOUS
SPREAD...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
LARGE BREAK IN THE OVERCAST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. DESPITE
THESE CHALLENGES...THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED TO
BE ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A H5 S/W MOVING EWD THROUGH THE FAST H5 FLOW AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING
THE BULK OF THE PCPN QUICKLY EWD THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF MODELS
TRY AND LINGER PCPN INTO THE AFTN IN THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PREFER TO GO WITH THE QUICKER
SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE THE FA DRY BY 18Z.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN NRN KY. ALSO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND REBOUND IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE WARM START IN THE SE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT THERE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT. NEAR NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EXTREME NORTH
TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGENCE IN THEIR HANDLING OF H5
ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. GFS IS
THE QUICKEST IN SPREADING PCPN NRN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE SFC LOW AND THE PCPN FARTHER S. WENT A BLEND
AND BROUGHT LOW POPS UP INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S.
THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS IS QUICKER
AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND PCPN...WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING THE SLOWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND THE ECMWF...TRY
TO LOWER CRITICAL THICKNESSES IN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY RAN A MODEL BLEND WHICH
KEPT THE SNOW CHANCE JUST TO THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW EJECTS NE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WED AND THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AND TRACKS NE INTO THE REGION. GFS 00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLN
WAS TAKING THIS LOW THRU IN AND EXTREME NW OHIO WED NIGHT BUT HAS
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN TAKES THE LOW THRU ILN/S FA. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN IS EVEN FURTHER EAST THAN ECMWF. WITH SUCH A
SPREAD WILL FOLLOW A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SE.
WILL HAVE RAIN IN THE SE AND A MIX ACRS ENTIRE FA BY MORNING.
WILL THEN RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
FORCING IS ENHANCED BY H8 CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 45-50 KT LLJ.
DUE TO WAA WILL HAVE ENTIRE REGION CHANGE TO RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN CAA
AND NWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO SE CANADA. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH THURSDAY AFTN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY OFFERING COLD
BUT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A MINOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ALL THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. THIS WILL
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH NNE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
THICK STRATUS DECK (IFR TO LIFR) TO DEVELOP...BUT THIS IS NOT YET
CERTAIN TO OCCUR. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT ABOUT 4-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT FOG MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
NONETHELESS...REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THE EXACT NATURE OF THE
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS TO GO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. JUST NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
MID SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...DRY SLOT MADE A NICE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA. KEEPING MENTIONS OF SHOWERS FOR A FEW HRS AFTER
SUNSET AS EASTWARD PROGRESS REMAINS SLOW.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHOVE EVENTUALLY NUDGE IT OFF TO THE EAST
AND END PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
IN THE SE AFTER THE WAVE MOVES EAST. THE CLEAR SLOT OVER THE
CENTRAL COS WILL CLOSE UP AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS THE CLOUDS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL VARY AS THE INITIAL HEATING GOES
AWAY BUT THE CHANGE IN SKY COVER MIGHT HELP TEMPS STAY STEADY OR
RISE VERY SLIGHTLY. WILL MAINTAIN A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE FOR NOW.
THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO UP NORTH BUT NOTHING SHOULD
ACCUMULATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT
INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES PASSING SOUTH OF PA WILL PRODUCE A BIT OF
LGT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR /MVFR/ REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE AT KBFD...WHERE A
RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PA IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN A MVFR STRATOCU DECK THRU THE
EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF CONTINUED UPSLOPING FLOW AND A
COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-14Z. WET GROUND FROM EARLIER
RAIN...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES...SUGGEST FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
PRECLUDE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATER MONDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS
A LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REDUCTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW.
WED...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN FZRA/RAIN.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SE HALF IN
RA/SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/HAGNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID-WEEK STORM. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DRY SLOT OVERHEAD MAKING A NICE AFTN FOR THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER ARE MOVING EASTWARD BUT NOT SO FAST. HAVE
KEPT IN MENTIONS OF PRECIP FOR A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE A VERY SLIGHT WAVE SLOW UP THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHOVE IT OFF TO THE EAST
AND END PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE SE AFTER THE WAVE MOVES EAST. THE CLEAR SLOT OVER THE CENTRAL
COS WILL CLOSE UP AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS THE CLOUDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL VARY AS THE INITIAL HEATING GOES AWAY
BUT THE CHANGE IN SKY COVER MIGHT HELP TEMPS STAY STEADY OR RISE
VERY SLIGHTLY. WILL MAINTAIN A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE FOR NOW. THERE
COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO UP NORTH BUT NOTHING SHOULD ACCUMULATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL TO ALMOST FULL CLEARING AS
THE DAY GOES ALONG DUE TO MIXING. MAXES IN THE L30S-M40S ARE ON
TAP WITH 8H TEMPS NEAR -10C IN THE NORTH BUT CLOSE TO 0C IN THE S.
FORECAST GETS SLIGHTLY INTERESTING LATER MON NIGHT WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WILL HINT AT
INCREASING CLOUDS - ESP OVER THE LAURELS. BUT SOME DZ/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS GET THICK ENUF. WILL KEEP AWAY FROM
MENTIONING IT OTHER THAN IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIDWEEK STORM STILL PROGGED TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF
PA...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS ON TUE AND THEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NEW
ENGLAND TUE WILL KEEP SOME COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AGAINST THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A WEDGE TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO GENERALLY THE SE THIRD OF MY CWA. ONSET OF
PRECIP COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
FIELD AS DRY AIR COOLS IN LOWEST LAYERS...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUE NIGHT.
MORE CERTAIN AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE S TUE
NIGHT...AND SO AM CARRYING UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THE DAY 4/5
RANGE. WITH COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED...PRECIP COULD START OUT AS A
LIGHT MIX OR FZRA TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOVE WILL BE FALLING INTO A SEEMINGLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 5KFT.
TIME FOR HIGHEST POPS IS REALLY WED AND WED NIGHT. SFC LOW SEEMS
TO BE ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR LONGITUDE. IT IS
DEEPENING AS IT GOES BY AND PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DRY
SLOT MAY PUSH IN - ESP EAST - BEFORE ALL THE PRECIP IS OVER.
WARMING TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HELD WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. TEMPS
REALLY DO WARM UP ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SFC ON WED AND HOLD THERE
UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW DROPS THE 8H TEMPS INTO THE SUB-TEENS BY
FRIDAY AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON THE MENU FOR LATE WEEK. MAXES
WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE FEB. A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR COULD MAKE FOR A VERY COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES PASSING SOUTH OF PA WILL PRODUCE A BIT OF
LGT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR /MVFR/ REDUCTIONS AT KMDT/KLNS
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE AT KBFD...WHERE A
RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PA IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN A MVFR STRATOCU DECK THRU THE
EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
FORMING AT KBFD...THE RESULT OF CONTINUED UPSLOPING FLOW AND A
COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR. LATEST SREF PROBS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-14Z. WET GROUND FROM EARLIER
RAIN...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES...SUGGEST FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
PRECLUDE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS.
ANY LOW CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS OR PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LATER MONDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KBFD...AS LATEST
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. BASED ON OTHER MDL GUIDANCE...THINK THIS IS
A LOW PROBABILITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REDUCTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW.
WED...REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN FZRA/RAIN.
THU...REDUCTIONS LIKELY NW HALF IN SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SE HALF IN
RA/SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/HAGNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID WEEK COULD BRING BOTH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER TO THE MIDSOUTH.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CAMDEN TENNESSEE TO
WYNNE ARKANSAS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...STARTING TO
SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
THIS BAND BLOSSOMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR ABERDEEN TO
GREENVILLE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.
THERE ARE ALSO MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THE SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE ARKLATEX
AREA 18Z TUESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS
THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. BEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUPELO
INCLUDING CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES. SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY
3 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUTTING OFF SO THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES GET AN
INCH AS THE MODELS LOOK RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SEVERE WEATHER OR WINTER WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHRAS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40...WITH A FEW TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING AT KJBR...KMKL AND KMEM. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS
IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS LINGERING
AT KTUP. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW 8-10 KTS TO NE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
256 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR...CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAS BEEN LIMITED BUT MUCAPE IS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WITH IT FINALLY EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 09-10Z.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SO LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE RANGING FROM LOW 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
TOMORROW AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE RACES OFF TO THE EAST ABANDONING THE
FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND IT MAY MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP INTO THE LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WEATHER FEATURES IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NOW...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST TO
TRACK FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO TN BY WEDNESDAY. PRESENT SETUP
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
EVENT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR OUR TN MOUNTAINS...AS THE LOW
DRAWS WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
WELL AS THE FLOW BEING PERPENDICULAR TO THE RIDGELINES. ALSO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EVEN SHOWER
DOWNDRAFTS WOULD BRING DOWN LOTS OF MOMENTUM FROM WINDS ALOFT.
AFTER THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE
POURING INTO THE AREA...SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWS PRECIP CHANGING TO
SNOW. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL AS A LITTLE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT...SO SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BEST
CHANCES NORTH. TURNING DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 62 49 59 / 50 30 80 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 59 47 60 / 50 10 70 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 59 46 60 / 50 10 60 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 57 43 56 / 50 10 60 60
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
12Z GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH A
SHEARED BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...TO TRANSLATE SOUTH
OF S WI TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. ON THE SFC...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE ON-SHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS WILL CREATE A CORRIDOR
OF SFC CONVERGENCE THAT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS ARE
SUGGESTING ENHANCED 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
CORRIDOR OF SFC CONVERGENCE...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DUE TO STRONGER ISENTROPIC OMEGA ALONG WITH A DEEPER
MOIST PROFILE INDICATED IN RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SLIGHT CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE
CORRIDOR OF THIS LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT LOOKS TO PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE REACHING THE
WAUKESHA...MILWAUKEE...AND RACINE AREAS. ALTOGETHER...SOME PLACES
COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SKIES
LOOK TO STAY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A LOBE OF HIGH LOW-
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH S WI. HIGHS MONDAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS 925 MB WINDS LOOK TO VEER
FROM THE SOUTH...ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A WEST TO EAST SFC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRN WI FOR MON NT AND TUE WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PARTLY TO MO
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FOR TUE NT INTO WED BUT
SHEAR OUT AS STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO OHIO. WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LGT SNOW IN
THE FAR NW CWA TUE NT BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PTLY TO MO CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING.
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS THE MODELS ON AVERAGE HAVE BEEN TRENDING
WEST WITH THE LARGE CYCLONE...SO WILL NOW GO WITH 40-50 POPS WED
AFT AND NIGHT FOR LGT SNOW IN FAR ERN WI VIA MIDDLE LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND PVA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
WILL AFFECT ERN WI AS WELL WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER LAKE MI
AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER LAND. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THU
AM OVER FAR ERN WI. BRISK NWLY WILL CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN WI ON FRI BUT ANOTHER
STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES OR SRN CANADA
IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FROM
CANADA. THIS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE MSN TAF SITE...THIS EVENING. A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
CHANCES OF -SN. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY IN OUR WEST AND AWAY FROM
OUR EASTERN TAF SITES AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THOUGHT
ABOUT INTRODUCING SOME LIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE -SN
CHANCES...BUT CONSIDERING THE SMALL CHANCES...DECIDED TO KEEP VSBYS
P6SM FOR THE MSN TAF SITE. MOREOVER...INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE MSN TAF
SITE TO ACCOMMODATE THE CHANCES OF -SN IN OUR WEST.
BKN TO OVC SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS A LOBE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH S WI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HELP FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW IS REACHING
AREAS FROM VILAS COUNTY TO IRON MOUNTAIN. COMPLICATING MATTERS
FURTHER IS A SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTATED ALMOST NORTH-SOUTH OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE FROM WAUPACA TO JUST NORTH OF GREEN BAY.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT SNOW TRENDS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
TONIGHT...THE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH HANGING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO HOLD UP THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WHILE GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP AROUND IT. WITHOUT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. BEST CHANCES
RESIDE IN A CORRIDOR FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN...BUT THIS AREA
COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY SINCE THE TROUGH IS SUCH A SMALL SCALE FEATURE.
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW COULD ALSO IMPACT EASTERN WI THAT COULD LEAD
TO A DUSTING. INCREASED LOW TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...PERHAPS A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAKING SNOWFALL
CHANCES THE HIGHEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH TWO OR THREE TENTHS IN THE AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROLONG SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES A
LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING. BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER OR NOT THE POWERFUL OHIO VALLEY
STORM WILL CLIP EAST CENTRAL WI ON WED/WED NGT...POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE WED-THU NGT AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MERGING WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD BRING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO
NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND CLIPS EAST
CENTRAL WI WITH THE NW PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE ON WED
AND WED NGT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...AND WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE LAKESHORE
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM LATE WED
THROUGH THURSDAY NGT. A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER NC WI ON THU/THU NGT...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN VILAS COUNTY.
GFS AND ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF H8 TEMPS AROUND -30 C
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE MODEL BLEND TEMPS BY
2-3 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE MODELS SHOW CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS PATTERN...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN ON LAKE MICHIGAN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE
TO A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND DIFFICULT TO TIME IN THE FORECAST. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI...AND ALSO IN A CORRIDOR
FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVER EASTERN WI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
BE UNDER AN INCH...IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE PERSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1105 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016
.UPDATE...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLED OVER
NORTHERN WI...IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE STATE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD MISS S WI.
CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LAKE-ENHANCED FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN
MILWAUKEE COUNTY. THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE
TO NORTHEASTERLY ON-SHORE FLOW. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE IN THE WESTERN ONE-HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL DUE
TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CORRIDOR OF LIFT LOCATED
OVER THE WEST...INDICATED FROM BUFKIT RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS A CHANCE OF -SN DEVELOPS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MSN
TAF SITE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO THIS
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT UNTIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES DUE TO THE CORRIDOR
OF -SN STAYING WEST. HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS
CHANCE OF -SN SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
ONLY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER FAR SE SOUTH DAKOTA
/NE NEBRASKA/NW IOWA WITH BETTER OMEGA AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED SHORT WAVE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG TIGHT MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
COLD ADVECTION PUSHES DOWN INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY. EVEN LIGHTER
RETURNS OF SPOTTY 10 MILE SNOW FARTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON REGIONAL RADAR AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING.
SOUNDINGS DRY ABOVE 2500 TO 3500 FT THOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BEARING LAYER THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM SOME WEAK 850-700 MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
LIMIT COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH EXPECT MAINLY SPOTTY NON-MEASURABLE PCPN
TODAY AT MOST. EXPECT MID-DAY HIGHS WITH MODELS INDICATING
ACCELERATING 925-850 MB COLD ADVECTION BEHIND PASSING WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
FORCING WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE PREVENTING FULL SATURATION OF DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. CLOUDS HELP HOLD LOWS IN THE MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE SURFACE/850 FLOW IS WEAK WITH SOME SUBTLE WAA NOTED. OVERALL A
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES. HOWEVER THE WEAK WAA AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME VRY LGT SN OR FLURRIES IN PARTS OF
SRN WI. OVERALL THE MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS DISJOINTED ON THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH DEPTH LACKING. HOWEVER CANNOT IGNORE THE CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF VRY LIGHT QPF ACRS THE AREA SO
HAVE EXPANDED THE SMALL POPS A BIT.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
APPCH WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. 925 TEMPS REBOUND BACK TOWARDS
ZERO CELSIUS SO THE MILDER MOS TEMPS LOOK OVERALL PRETTY
REASONABLE ESP WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LLVL RH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO
MEDIUM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RIDING THROUGH WI
WHILE STRONGER WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT PCPN WITH THE NRN STREAM WAVE WHILE SFC/850
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX/UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ERN WI BEING ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WITH EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOWING THE PCPN SHIELD PSBLY REACHING AS FAR WEST AS
EXTREME ERN WI. SO WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR SOME LGT SN OR SHSN TO
ACCOUNT FOR BOTH THE SCENARIO OF NRN STREAM ENERGY AND ALSO THE
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST BUT ANY NUDGE WEST IN THE
TRACK...ESP THE CURRENTLY FARTHEST WEST LOOKING TRACK OF THE
GFS...WOULD NECESSITATE HIGHER POPS/QPF/SNOW AMNTS. GRADIENT
LIKELY TO TIGHTEN UP WITH GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS RAMPING
UP THE CAA REGIME WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST WITH INFLUENCE OF THE BROADER
MID LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST. DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN
STILL NOT IN SYNC WITH SOME WEAK WAVES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS TOWARDS SOME MODIFICATION IN THE LOW LEVEL COLD
POOL WITH SURFACE/850 FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY. WILL GO WITH THE
DRY LOOK PER QUIET SUPERBLEND POPS.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE GFS CARVES OUT A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA. HUGE DISPARITY WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN WITH THE GFS
DRIVING IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -25C AND THE
ECMWF SHOWING - 3C. SFC LOW POSITION AND THICKNESS PACKING FROM
THE GEM SHOWS SOME NOD TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE SUPERBLEND TEMP/POP GUID AS IS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK ERODED WITH ONLY HI-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE A THICKENING OF MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS A WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE MVFR CLOUDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND MOVE THEM FROM NE TO SW
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES PUSHING THE MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PCPN WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR